Forex News

• WTI slides to fresh one-month lows, pressured by growing optimism around peace negotiations in Ukraine.
• Proposed talks reportedly include territorial concessions and could lead to softer sanctions on Russia, reinforcing expectations of increased global supply.
• Prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv overshadow an already fragile demand outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $57.60 on Friday at the time of writing, down 1.90% on the day. The Crude Oil extends its three-day losing streak, slipping below the $58.00 level as investors reassess geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe amid signs that a potential peace agreement in Ukraine may be taking shape.

According to multiple media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to work on a US-backed proposal that includes territorial concessions to Russia and a reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces. These points, considered unacceptable just months ago, fuel expectations that a compromise could emerge faster than initially anticipated. The possibility of easing international sanctions on Moscow would increase global Oil supply and deepen the bearish pressure on prices.

This shift coincides with the implementation of new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, an event already widely priced in by the market. In a scenario of diplomatic de-escalation, such measures could be softened, further strengthening expectations of increased Russian crude flows.

On the demand side, the backdrop remains fragile. Economic indicators released this week reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December, while the US Dollar (USD) remains strong. A firmer Greenback typically weighs on USD-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for international buyers.

Meanwhile, US Crude flows continue to adjust. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data confirmed a decline in commercial Crude inventories driven by strong exports, while increases in gasoline and distillate stocks point to weaker domestic demand, adding another layer of vulnerability to the market.

WTI remains under broad downward pressure as long as diplomatic momentum between Russia and Ukraine improves and global demand struggles to stabilize. Any rapid development on the geopolitical front could fuel heightened volatility in the short term.

WTI Technical Analysis: Remains bearish below descending trend line

WTI US Oil daily chart. Source: FXStreet

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $57.68. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to slope lower, and price holds beneath it, maintaining a bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to 39.82, below the 50 midline, underscoring soft momentum. A horizontal line offers support around $56.00, where a break would expose further downside.

The descending trend line from $69.99 limits recoveries, with resistance aligned near $60.34. A topside break would open room for a corrective bounce toward the 100-day SMA at $62.62. While capped below the trend barrier and the falling average, the risk stays skewed lower. Failure to clear resistance would keep bears in control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

• EUR/USD heads for its first weekly setback in three weeks, pressured by broad US Dollar strength.
• US S&P Global PMI beats expectations overall, with services strengthening and new orders rising at the fastest pace this year.
• Eurozone PMI shows uneven momentum, with services firm but manufacturing back in contraction.

The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, even as the Greenback trades broadly flat, with traders weighing fresh US economic data and rising bets on a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1500, on track for its first weekly decline after two consecutive weeks of gains. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.26, holding firm around its highest level in more than five months.

S&P Global’s preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report pointed to another month of solid economic momentum in November. The Composite PMI edged up to 54.8 from 54.6, marking a four-month high. The Services PMI strengthened to 55.0, rising from 54.8 and beating expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.9 from 52.5, missing the 52.0 forecast but still signalling expansion in factory activity.

The survey highlighted the strongest rise in new orders this year, alongside improving business confidence and steady job creation. However, price pressures intensified, with input costs climbing at one of the fastest rates in three years.

The University of Michigan survey offered a mildly upbeat signal for US consumers. The Consumer Expectations Index rose to 51.0, beating the forecast and previous reading of 49, while the Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 51.0 from 50.5, also coming in above expectations. Inflation expectations eased further, with the 1-year outlook slipping to 4.5% from 4.7% and the 5-year measure softening to 3.4% from 3.6%.

Beyond the data, December rate-cut bets revived sharply after New York Fed President John Williams signalled that a near-term policy adjustment remains on the table. Williams said he still sees room for a December rate cut, acknowledging that progress on inflation has “stalled,” even as he expects price growth to return to the 2% target by 2027. He added that economic activity has cooled and the labour market continues to ease gradually.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign nearly a 74% probability to a December rate cut, a sharp jump from roughly 31% earlier in the day.

Across the Atlantic, preliminary Eurozone PMI figures painted a softer picture of the region’s economic momentum. The HCOB Composite PMI slipped to 52.4 from 52.5, missing expectations. The Services PMI rose to an 18-month high at 53.1, outperforming forecasts, but this strength was offset by renewed weakness in manufacturing, where the Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.7, below the 50.2 consensus.

Germany remained the main drag on the readings, with activity slowing across both services and manufacturing, while France showed tentative signs of stabilisation thanks to a return to growth in its services sector.

• GBP/USD climbs to 1.3092 as traders raise odds of a December Fed cut following upbeat US sentiment data.
• US PMIs show resilient business activity, while Michigan survey reveals improving confidence and easing inflation expectations.
• Fed officials remain divided, with Logan and Collins urging caution as Williams and Miran signal support for near-term easing.

The Pound Sterling turns positive in the day as traders increase their bets that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at the December meeting. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3082 up 0.08%.

Sterling turns positive as improved US sentiment and dovish Fed voices lift December rate-cut expectations

The US economic docket revealed that business activity in the US remained solid according to S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI dipped from 52.5 to 51.9, slightly below the 52 estimates Conversely, the Services PMI improved from 54.6 to 54.8, above forecasts of 54.5. Comments of the survey showed that business confidence has improved, and that hopes for additional rate cuts and the government reopening “improved economic optimism.”

At the same time, the University of Michigan revealed that Consumer Sentiment in November, improved to 51 from 50.3, above forecasts. Inflation expectations edged lower, for one year from 4.7% to 4.5%, and for five years, from 3.6% to 3.4%.

Federal Reserve officials split between cutting or no cutting

On Friday, Dallas Fed Lorie Logan said that rates need to be on hold “for a time” while they assess the impact of current policy over inflation. She said she finds “difficult” to cut in December. Boston Fed Susan Collins coincided with Logan’s adding that “restrictive policy is very appropriate right now.”

On the other hand, the New York Fed John Williams said they can still cut rates in the “near-term”, which boosted odds for a December move. Echoing some of his words was Governor Stephen Miran, who said that Thursday’s data favors a December rate cut, and that if his vote was the marginal one, he “would vote for a 25 bps cut.”

In the UK, Retail Sales were weaker than expected in October, and flash PMIs for November were mixed, with the Manufacturing PMI improving, while the Services PMI approached the 50 neutral threshold.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD remains biased, technically speaking. After hitting a weekly high of 1.3193, the pair continued its downtrend and if buyers would like to regain control, the pair must clear key resistance levels like the 1.3100 mark, the 20-day SMA at 1.3146 and 1.3200.

Conversely, the GBP/USD first support would be 1.3050. Once breached, the next support would be the 1.3000 mark, followed by the April 8 swing low of 1.2764.

US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in November's flash estimate from 54.6 in October, showing that the business activity in the US' private sector continued to expand at an accelerating pace.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 from 52.5 in this period, while the Services PMI improved to 55.0 from 54.8.

Assessing the survey's findings, "the flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant US economy in November, signalling annualised GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and added:

"Although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs. Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

Market reaction to US S&P PMI data

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen trading unchanged on the day at 100.22.

This section below was published as a preview of the US S&P Global PMI data at 08:00 GMT.

• The S&P Global flash PMIs for November are expected to show expansion continued in the month.
• The employment and inflation sub-indices will attract attention in the aftermath of the government shutdown.
• EUR/USD bounced from its recent lows, USD could recover its bullish poise with upbeat data.

S&P Global will release on Friday the November flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, including the United States (US). These surveys of top private sector executives provide an early indication of the business sector’s economic health.

Market participants anticipate that the Global Services PMI will print at 54.8, matching the October reading, while Global Manufacturing output is expected to print at 52, slightly below the 52.5 reading of the previous month. Finally, it is worth noting that the Composite PMI printed at 54.6 in October.

The US is coming from the longest government shutdown in its history, which means little macroeconomic data has been released in the last couple of months. Indeed, the country kick-started reporting on Thursday, but offered the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy added 119,000 new positions in the month, better than the 50,000 expected. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.4%, worse than the previous 4.3%, although the Participation Rate increased from 62.3% to 62.4%, partially offsetting the uptick in the unemployment rate. As a result, markets turned optimistic, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild near-term selling pressure.

Still, the market’s hunger for economic-related data ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy meeting could see the S&P Global PMIs having a wider-than-usual impact on the US Dollar (USD).

S&P Global separately reports manufacturing activity and services activity through the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI. Additionally, they present a weighted combination of the two, the Composite PMI. Generally speaking, a reading of 50 or more indicates expansion, while below the threshold, the indexes indicate contraction.

The report has two versions, a preliminary estimate and a final revision, which comes around two weeks later. These preliminary versions or flash estimates tend to have a broader impact on the US Dollar.

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

The anticipated figures, while below the previous ones on the manufacturing sector, still indicate healthy economic progress in the world’s largest economy.

With that in mind, figures in line with expectations will be viewed as positive news, particularly in relation to the Manufacturing PMI. Upbeat numbers could boost the market’s optimism and temporarily weigh on the USD demand, but had no material impact on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, unless the figures are extremely disappointing, an unlikely scenario.

Beyond the headline readings, the reports include sub-indices on employment and inflation, closely watched by market players. In this particular case, the figures could have a more relevant impact than the headline figure, as inflation and employment levels are at the centre of the Fed’s decision. Much worse-than-anticipated data should result in renewed speculation of a Fed cut in December, resulting in a weaker USD across the FX board.

When will the November flash US S&P Global PMIs will be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs reports will be released at 14:45 GMT on Friday, and as previously noted, are expected to show that US business activity continued to expand in November.

Ahead of the release, the USD is shedding ground against most major rivals amid a risk-on environment following the September NFP report.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair bounced modestly from near the 1.1500 level posted early on Thursday, as risk appetite undermines demand for the Greenback in the near-term. On a weekly basis, however, the pair remains on the bearish side.”

Bednarik adds: “Technical readings in the daily chart suggest EUR/USD could extend its slide. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently providing dynamic resistance at around 1.1570, while extending its slide below a flat 100 SMA, usually a sign of mounting selling pressure. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, in line with the recent absence of directional strength. Support lies at 1.1470 ahead of the 1.1400 region, where the pair met buyers in July. Gains beyond the aforementioned 1.1570 expose the 1.1630 price zone, with additional gains unlikely in the current scenario.”

• Silver trims losses after hitting a fresh weekly low at $48.64, still set for a weekly decline.
• Double-top pattern on the daily chart keeps bearish pressure in play.
• Immediate support rests at the $49.50-$49.00 zone aligned with the 21-day SMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) trims a part of its earlier losses on Friday after marking a fresh weekly low at $48.64. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $49.69, recovering modestly but still down nearly 1.50% on the day, and remains on track for a weekly decline.

From a technical perspective, Silver is flashing early signs of fatigue after forming a double-top pattern on the daily chart, with peaks around the $54.50-$55.00 region. The pattern is beginning to exert mild bearish pressure, although the neckline remains intact, keeping sellers cautious for now.

Despite the pullback, the broader uptrend structure remains intact, with prices still comfortably above the key moving averages. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has flattened around $49.42, reinforcing the immediate $49.50-$49.00 support band. This is the first line in the sand for bulls.

A decisive break below this confluence zone would expose downside toward $46.50, which corresponds to the double-top neckline. A close below $46.50 would constitute a technical breakdown and shift the near-term bias firmly in favour of sellers.

On the upside, the $50.00 psychological level is the first hurdle. Bulls would need a sustained break above this level to attempt a move toward this week’s top near $52.47. A push through the double-top highs would invalidate the bearish formation and reinstall bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 50, signaling balanced forces after earlier overbought readings faded. The Average Directional Index (ADX) eases to 21.09, indicating weak trend strength and a risk of range-bound trade unless momentum rebuilds.

• USD/CHF rises as US activity data and consumer sentiment improve modestly.
• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index climbs to 51 in November, while inflation expectations ease.
• Fed officials reinforce the case for a rate cut in the coming months despite lingering caution.

USD/CHF trades around 0.8070 on Friday, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing, as the US Dollar (USD) finds moderate support from mixed but generally resilient US data releases. While the pair advances, markets continue to price a higher likelihood of policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months.

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose slightly to 54.8 in November from 54.6, signalling continued growth in private-sector activity. The Services PMI improved to 55, while the Manufacturing PMI slid to 51.9, suggesting softer but still positive momentum in the goods sector. The indicators point to an economy that is still expanding.

Consumer data also offered a constructive signal. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 51 in November, above expectations of 50.5 and the previous 50.3 reading. Meanwhile, the 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation eased to 3.4% from 3.6% previously, a development likely welcomed by the Fed as it seeks confirmation that inflation pressures are continuing to moderate.

These figures come alongside a new round of remarks from Fed officials shaping the policy outlook. John Williams highlighted that there is still room for a near-term rate cut, noting that progress on inflation has stalled but should return to the 2% target over the next years. His comments triggered a renewed repricing in interest rate expectations, with markets assigning a strong probability to a December cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign nearly a 74% chance to a December rate cut, a sharp jump from roughly 31% earlier in the day.

Several other policymakers offered a more cautious tone. Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and argued that it is too early to move “too quickly,” even as she expects rates to fall over time. Fed Governor Stephen Miran emphasised that the central bank should be “forecast-dependent rather than data-dependent,” adding that he would support a 25-basis-point reduction if his vote were decisive. By contrast, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan insisted that another cut in December would be difficult to justify, stressing the need to keep rates steady long enough to assess the degree of policy restraint.

In Switzerland, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly stable, with policymakers at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterating that the threshold for a return to negative rates remains high, although they remain ready to adjust policy if needed. With the SNB expected to keep rates unchanged in December, the narrowing policy spread between the Fed and the SNB is shaping market expectations for USD/CHF in the near term.