Forex News
- USD/CAD may find a primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4055.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 signals balanced momentum, favoring potential breakouts over range-bound moves.
- The initial support lies around the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 1.4020.
USD/CAD holds ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.4040 during the early European hours on Friday. The daily chart’s technical setup reflects an ongoing bullish bias, with the pair remaining within its ascending channel pattern.
The USD/CAD pair holds above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3992. A dip below the nine-day EMA at 1.4055 flags cooling short-term momentum. Trend conditions remain mildly bullish with the 50-day EMA ascending, yet the flattening nine-EMA caps follow-through. Price’s stance between the two averages points to consolidation until a decisive break.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 (neutral) after retreating from overbought readings confirms subdued directional conviction. RSI around 50 keeps momentum balanced, leaving cues to breakouts rather than oscillations.
The USD/CAD pair could face immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA near 1.4055. A break above this level would strengthen short-term momentum and pave the way for a retest of the seven-month high at 1.4140 from November 5. A sustained move beyond that level could open the door toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4240.
On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the ascending channel’s lower boundary near 1.4020, followed by the psychological 1.4000 level and the 50-day EMA at 1.3992. A break below this confluence of supports would dent the bullish bias and pressure USD/CAD toward the four-month low near 1.3721.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.04% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.03% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.11% | -0.01% | -0.00% | 0.06% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.14% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
- Retail Sales in Germany increased 0.9% YoY in October.
- EUR/USD remains below 1.1600 following the data.
Retail Sales in Germany rose 0.9% year-over-year (YoY) in October, sharply exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% increase and an increase of 0.8% (revised from 0.2%) in September, according to official data released by Destatis on Friday.
On a monthly basis, Retail Sales dropped 0.3% in October, compared with a 0.3% rise (revised from 0.2%) in September and 0.2% expected.
Market reaction
The mixed data failed to impact the Euro (EUR). At the press time, EUR/USD is trading 0.07% lower on the day at 1.1586.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.00% | 0.04% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.05% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published at 05:44 GMT as a preview of the German Retail Sales report.
The German Retail Sales Overview
The Federal Statistics Office of Germany, Destatis, will publish the Retail Sales report on Friday at 07:00 GMT.
Germany's Retail Sales are expected to remain consistent at a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) in October. The annual Retail Sales are also anticipated to remain consistent at 0.2%.
How could the German Retail Sales affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair could erase daily losses and extend its gains if German Retail Sales beat expectations. Softer data may have a limited downside impact on the Euro (EUR), as ECB minutes signaled policymakers prefer holding rates steady amid uncertainty, with some seeing no need for further easing. Traders await Unemployment and flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany due later in the day.
The EUR/USD pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) could struggle amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests markets are now pricing in over an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, a sharp rise from the 39% probability seen just a week earlier. Traders are also anticipating three additional rate cuts by the end of 2026.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair holds modest losses near 1.1590 at the time of writing, halting its three-day winning streak. The market bias is still active as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 level. The immediate barrier lies at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1606, followed by the monthly high of 1.1655, which was recorded on November 13. On the downside, the immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.1571. Further declines would prompt the EUR/USD pair to test the three-month low of 1.1468.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
- The Japanese Yen struggles to lure buyers as BoJ uncertainty offsets Tokyo CPI print.
- Fiscal concerns and the upbeat market mood further undermine the safe-haven JPY.
- Dovish Fed expectations act as a headwind for the USD and cap gains for USD/JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades with a mild negative bias against the rebounding US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Friday, though any meaningful depreciation seems elusive. Investors remain worried about Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition on the back of the government's massive economic package, which led to the recent spike in the Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood, bolstered by the prospects for lower US interest rates and hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, turns out to be a key factor undermining the safe-haven JPY.
Meanwhile, slightly higher than forecast Tokyo consumer inflation data, released earlier today, backs the case for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Furthermore, speculations that authorities could step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. The USD, on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This might contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move.
Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand as Tokyo CPI reaffirms BoJ rate hike bets
- Government data released earlier this Friday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – rose 2.7% YoY in November, while a gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, came in at 2.8% YoY. Moreover, the core CPI, excluding both fresh food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% during the reported month.
- The data pointed to sticky inflation in Japan and backs the case for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Japanese Yen, however, struggles to gain any meaningful traction as bulls remain on the sidelines amid growing concerns over Japan's worsening fiscal situation on the back of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance.
- In fact, reports on Thursday suggested that Japan's government plans to issue more new bonds to fund Takaichi’s economic package. Worries about the supply of new government debt had pushed longer-dated government bond yields to their highest in more than two decades earlier this month and contributed to the Japanese Yen's relative underperformance.
- Meanwhile, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi signaled that the monetary tightening must follow an incremental path. This seems to have tempered market expectations for an imminent BoJ rate cut in December, which, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY during the Asian session on Friday.
- In contrast, the recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials suggested that another interest rate cut in December is a live option. Adding to this, speculations about a dovish successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell might cap the US Dollar (USD) recovery from a one-and-a-half-week low, touched on Thursday, and act as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.
- On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a revised US proposal could form the basis of a future Ukraine agreement. This follows US President Donald Trump's remarks, saying that a Ukraine–Russia agreement is very close. The optimism, in turn, further undermines the JPY's safe-haven status and lends support to the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 100-hour SMA; not out of the woods yet
Spot prices need to find acceptance above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the 156.45-156.50 area, to back the case for additional gains. The subsequent move up could allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 157.00 mark and climb further toward the 157.45-157.50 intermediate hurdle en route to the 158.00 neighborhood, or the highest level since mid-January, touched last week.
On the flip side, the 156.00 round figure could protect the immediate downside ahead of the weekly swing low, around the 155.70-155.65 region. Some follow-through selling could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to test the 155.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of a one-week-old downtrend.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.96 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $59.02.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) ,on the contrary, is up, advancing from the $62.89 price posted on Thursday, and trading at $63.04.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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