Forex News
- Gold eases to the $4,530 area on Thursday but remains steady within the weekly range.
- Moderate hopes about a US-Iran deal are keeping US Dollar bulls in check.
- The precious metal is looking for direction between $4,580 and eight-week lows, at $4,455.
Gold (XAU/USD) keeps looking for direction on Thursday, showing marginal losses within the weekly range. Upside attempts remain limited below $4,580, with bears contained above the $4,455 area. Comments by US President Trump hinting at a peace deal with Iran have lifted market sentiment, keeping US Dollar bulls in check, but investors remain cautious after so much back-and-forth.
The US Dollar Index pulled back on Wednesday after Trump affirmed that the US is in the final stage of talks with Iran. The US president also said that the military option remains open, but the market reacted with only moderate relief. Trump's comments offset hawkishly leaning Federal Reserve minutes that confirmed the possibility of a rate hike is back on the table.
In the calendar on Thursday, US Preliminary S&P Global PMIs are expected to show that economic activity remained buoyant in May in the face of Iran’s war, even though the manufacturing sector might show a mild slowdown. These figures might provide additional support to the USD.
Technical Analysis: Trading range-bound with momentum indicators mixed
XAU/USD trades at $4,532, keeping a capped tone, with momentum indicators mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just under the neutral midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive, hinting that downside momentum is fading but not yet strong enough to shift the broader bearish bias.
On the upside, the resistance above $4,580 (May 18 highs) is holding bulls for now. Above here, the May 11 and 12 lows around the $4,650 area are likely to pose some resistance ahead of May's top in the $4,770 area. Initial support emerges at Wednesday's lows in the $4,455 area. A confirmation below that level would open the path towards the March 26 lows in the $4,350 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The Indian Rupee gains ground against the US Dollar, following the RBI’s intervention and a decline in oil prices.
- US President Trump expressed confidence that negotiations with Iran are in “final stages”.
- India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI arrives lower at 54.3 in May vs. 54.7 in April.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after underperforming for almost two weeks. The USD/INR corrects to near 96.30 from its historic highs slightly above 97.00, as the Indian Rupee bounces back due to synergic support from a sharp decline in oil prices and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention.
According to a Reuters report, traders point to strong central bank intervention to shore up the INR, which has hit successive record lows over recent sessions. Traders added that the RBI’s intervention was likely intended to cool the persistent bearish bias on INR.
There have been numerous events of the RBI's intervention through offshore and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) since the Middle East war started to counter excessive one-way moves against the Indian Rupee.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, attract bids following a sharp correction in oil prices.
Indian Rupee capitalizes on correction in oil prices
During the press time, the WTI Oil price trades with caution near Wednesday’s low of around $96.30. The oil price faced a sharp selling pressure on Wednesday after United States (US) President Donald Trump said that Washington is in the “final stages” of finalizing a deal with Iran.
"We’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens. Either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen,” Trump said, Bloomberg reported.
FIIs turn out to be net sellers in Indian stock market on Wednesday
On Wednesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) emerged as net sellers again and offloaded their stake worth Rs. 1,597.35 crore. Overseas investors also remained net sellers on Tuesday and pared their stake worth Rs. 2,457.49 crore.
The sentiment of FIIs toward the Indian stock market remains grim as elevated oil prices have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections. Also, increased government payments toward high energy products have diminished their spending power toward infrastructure, employment generation, power, and other critical areas.
US Treasury yields correct on Iran optimism
A sharp correction in the US Treasury yields, following the decline in oil prices, has also weighed on USD/INR. 10-year US Treasury yields drop to near 4.59% from 4.69%, the highest level seen since the subprime crisis posted on Tuesday.
US bond yields surged as elevated oil prices have lifted US inflation expectations, forcing traders to price out the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts this year. While hawkish Fed bets are still intact, as the US headline inflation has already increased to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April, the highest level seen in almost three years.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are 51%, while the rest favor that benchmark lending rates will remain unchanged in the current range of 3.50%-3.75%.
India's HSBC Composite PMI expands moderately in May
India's HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in lower at 58.1 in May, down from 58.2 in April. A mild growth slowdown in the overall business activity came in regard to soft Manufacturing PMI, while the service sector activity expanded at a faster pace. The Manufacturing PMI drops to 54.3 in May vs. 54.7 in April. The Services PMI has come in higher at 58.9 from the previous reading of 58.8.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR corrects from 97.00
USD/INR trades lower at around 96.30 at the press time. However, the pair holds a clear bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.36.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops to around 66 after hitting overbought levels, hinting that upside momentum has cooled down but not yet exhausted.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 95.37, where a daily close below would signal waning bullish pressure and open room for a deeper correction toward 95.00. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance toward 98.00 if it manages to recover above 97.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- The British Pound falls to near 1.3415 against the US Dollar as optimism over US-Iran deal fades.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader wants near-weapons-grade uranium to stay in Iran.
- The UK preliminary S&P Global PMI unexpectedly contracts in May.
The British Pound is down 0.13% to near 1.3415 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as optimism towards the United States (US)-Iran deal fades, following comments from Iran’s Supreme Leader that near-weapons-grade uranium must stay in Iran.
The statement from Iran’s top leader is in contrast with Washington’s demand that Iran must surrender its uranium enrichment if it wants a deal.
Iran Supreme Leader’s comments regarding the retention of near-weapons-grade uranium have dampened the market sentiment. S&P 500 futures surrender its entire early gains and drops to near 7,400. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back swiftly to near 99.30.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.14% | 0.35% | 0.24% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | -0.07% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.21% | 0.07% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.30% | 0.17% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.24% | 0.05% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.25% | 0.10% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.21% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.25% | -0.14% | -0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.14% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Wednesday, market mood turned risk-on after comments from US President Donald Trump signaled that a deal with Iran is around the corner. Trump said that Washington is in the “final stages” of finalizing a deal with Iran.
The British Pound is also facing pressure from weak preliminary United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May.
The data showed during the European trade that the UK Composite PMI surprisingly declined in May, as the service sector activity contracted. The Composite PMI arrived at 48.5, while it was expected to expand again, but at a moderate pace to 51.7 from April’s reading of 52.6. A figure below 50.0 is considered a contraction in the business activity.
Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales data for April, which will be released on Friday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
According to Reuters, Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered that near-weapons-grade uranium must stay in Iran. The agency also reported that sources familiar believe Supreme Leader's directive reflects consensus among the Iranian establishment.
This statement is in contrast to Washington’s demand that Iran must surrender its uranium enrichment if it wants a deal.
Market reaction
Market sentiment seems to be turning risk-averse, following the comments from the Iranian Supreme Leader. S&P 500 futures slide to near 7,400. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers swiftly to near 99.25. Also, there is decent buying interest in the oil price, pushing the WTI higher to $98.45.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Rabobank’s Michael Every and Joe DeLaura see US Dollar policy increasingly tied to energy and geopolitics. They note new US Treasury swaplines to Argentina and the UAE, argue these are tools of economic statecraft to reinforce Dollar usage, and suggest a future US-led energy ‘stack’ could combine security guarantees, USD pricing and swaplines for producers.
Swaplines, pricing power and Dollar blocs
"In October 2025, the Treasury issued a $20bn swapline for Argentina, seen as economic statecraft to help a geopolitical ally (and repaid in January): the $20bn Treasury swapline with the UAE, whose currency is pegged to the USD, is also not just liquidity but geopolitical support."
"Treasury Secretary Bessent stated swaplines with Gulf and Asian allies “can benefit our nation by reinforcing dollar usage and liquidity internationally,” and that, “Dollar dominance and reserve currency status are strengthened by constant long-term initiatives, including countering the growth of problematic, alternative payment systems.” He further described the UAE facility as “a major first step in creating new US dollar funding centres in the Gulf and Asia.” It seems more will follow - and shift from financial liquidity for old allies to resource-based economic statecraft for new ones."
"That ‘stack’ could lead to divergent --lower-- prices for those inside it vs. those outside. For example, the US could ask bloc energy producers to offer discounts as quid pro quo for security, or to produce more and ensure these flows stay in bloc, requiring energy buyers to end transshipment outside it."
"Specifically, if: (i) Europe abandons plans for energy decoupling from the US and buys more LNG instead; and (ii) China imports more energy from the US and allies the Pentagon has supply-chain control over, (primarily NAPHTHA – SAPHTHA, but including the Middle East if the US wins the Iran War), it would cap any alternative energy ‘stacks’ from emerging."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG notes that the dominant macro driver for Asian markets is the US–Iran conflict and its impact on Strait of Hormuz energy flows, which had pushed global long-bond yields to post-2008 highs and pressured oil-importing Asian currencies. Comments from President Trump about being in final negotiation stages with Iran triggered a sharp fall in WTI and Brent prices.
Crude drops as geopolitical risk eases
"The dominant macro theme entering Thursday's Asian session is the US-Iran conflict and its sustained disruption to Strait of Hormuz energy flows, which has driven global long-bond yields to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis and placed broad pressure on oil-importing Asian currencies."
"That backdrop shifted materially late in New York trade on Wednesday when President Trump told reporters the US is in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran — adding that no sanctions relief would be granted until a deal is formally signed, and that failure to reach agreement would prompt swift military action."
"The comments sent WTI crude down as much as 7%, settling at $98.26/bbl, while Brent settled at $105.10/bbl."
"Iran was reportedly still reviewing the text of any proposed agreement and had not yet formally responded as of Wednesday evening, leaving the durability of the rally the central question for today's session."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/GBP eases to the 0.8640 area after rejection above 0.8650.
- Eurozone preliminary PMIs hint at a significant downturn in business activity in May.
- UK services activity also dropped in May, but the manufacturing sector has shown resilience.
The Euro’s (EUR) frail recovery attempt against the British Pound (GBP) has been capped below 0.8660, as the pair retreats on Thursday, testing one and a half week lows below 0.8642 at the time of writing. Eurozone preliminary HCOB Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) data has disappointed, while the UK’s business activity seems more resilient amid the energy shock stemming from Iran’s war.
Eurozine's preliminary PMIs for May, released earlier on Thursday, revealed that business activity in the service sector dove to a 63-month low of 46.4, from 47.6 in April, against expectations of an uptick to 47.7. Manufacturing activity slowed down to 51.4 in May, from 52.2 in April, also below the 51.9 expected.
Down to member countries, France’s Composite PMI fell to a 66-month low of 43.5, from 47.6 in April, with the Manufacturing PMI slumping to 48.9 from 52.8 in April, and Services PMI dropping to 42,9 from 46.5 in the previous month. German PMI figures were also negative, with both the manufacturing and services sectors contracting.
In the UK, May’s Preliminary S&P Global PMIs revealed that the services sector fell to contraction levels, at 47.9, from 52.7 in April, against market expectations of a softer slowdown to 51.8. The Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, remained unchanged from April at expectations 53.7 level, beating expecttons of a moderate slowdown, to 53.0.
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 21, 2026 08:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 47.5
Consensus: 48.8
Previous: 48.8
Source: S&P Global
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 21, 2026 08:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 48.5
Consensus: 51.7
Previous: 52.6
Source: S&P Global
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that U.S. long-term inflation expectations, measured via 5y5y swaps, are catching up with Europe’s as markets price prolonged disruption risks. He expects further convergence, with up to 10bp upside. Yu argues this should not undermine the Dollar, as higher real yields attract onshore and external investors back into U.S. Treasuries.
Higher real yields seen Dollar supportive
"Based on 5y5y inflation swaps, even after the first month of the conflict, U.S. long-term inflation expectations were around 15bp below levels seen at the beginning of the conflict, whereas U.K. and Eurozone equivalents had moved materially in the opposite direction, where they have remained even with the prospect of a permanent ceasefire. However, as U.S. data have begun to shift, the disinflation premia have swiftly eroded, and the 5y5y USD inflation swap is back to its levels at the beginning of the year and continues to rise."
"While there are crucial differences between the U.S. and European economies – being a net energy exporter and lower trade dependency to name a few – the experience of inflation expectations on the other side of the Atlantic justifies strong vigilance. We expect further convergence in inflation expectations through the second half of the year, which means further upside risk of up to 10bp should the change reach Eurozone levels."
"Despite the potential 25bp swing from end-March in the 5y5y, we don’t see such a move undermining the dollar, even if the Fed doesn’t react – nor should it, given its forecast horizon. For onshore investors, the moves in long-dated yields have been far larger than inflation expectations alone, which pushes up real rates across the curve and renders flows far more attractive to onshore bond investors."
"The U.S. has also benefited, to the extent that even external bond managers are re-entering the U.S. Treasury market, assuming that savings levels and trade surpluses begin picking up again while long-dated yields remain at a high level."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $75.58 per troy ounce, down 0.41% from the $75.89 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have increased by 6.33% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 75.58 |
1 Gram | 2.43 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 60.05 on Thursday, up from 59.87 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the Brent market remains highly sensitive to Iran-related news, with prices dropping sharply on renewed hopes of a US-Iran agreement and improved tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Their base case projects Brent averaging $104/bbl this quarter before easing into the $90s later in the year, contingent on recovering Persian Gulf exports.
Brent outlook hinges on Hormuz flows
"The oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the US and Iran are progressing."
"The latest report suggests that the US is in the “final stages” with Iran, raising hopes for an end to the war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz."
"Our base case sees Brent averaging $104/bbl this quarter."
"Then, we see oil trading into the $90s in the second half of the year, assuming that Strait of Hormuz oil flows amount to around 4m b/d by the end of May."
"We will need to see this trend of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz continue for our base case to hold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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