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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Jul 14, 17:30 HKT
Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.08 per troy ounce, up 0.76% from the $57.65 it cost on Monday.

Silver prices have decreased by 18.29% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure

Silver Price Today in USD

Troy Ounce

58.08

1 Gram

1.87

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.20 on Tuesday, down from 69.42 on Monday.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Jul 14, 17:23 HKT
Oil: Hormuz risk repricing lifts prices – Rabobank

Rabobank's Michael Every highlights a sharp Oil rally ahead of United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony, with prices jumping 9% and then another 2.5% to $85. The move is linked to escalating tensions around Hormuz, new US-imposed toll proposals, Iranian attacks on tankers, and renewed Houthi strikes that could threaten key east–west Oil flows.

Hormuz tensions drive energy repricing

"The day before US CPI (expected to moderate to 3.8% y/y from 4.2% and to 2.8% core) and Fed Chair Warsh’s first testimony to Congress, oil leaped 9%, the largest move since 2020. Today, it’s up another 2.5% to $85 at time of writing."

"There, besides reimposing the naval blockade of Iran, President Trump stated those using the waterway will now pay 20% of the value of cargo as compensation to the US, the strait’s new guardian."

"Bloomberg estimates Trump fees at $30m per supertanker, the equivalent of $8 on oil and $177 on LNG."

"However, the Yemeni government, OK’d by the Saudis after Trump approval, bombed a runway in Houthi-occupied Sanaa to try to prevent an Iranian plane landing; now the Houthis are firing at the Saudis again for the first time in years, potentially endangering vital east-west oil flows via Yanbu on the Red Sea."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 14, 17:21 HKT
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $58.00 despite ongoing bearish bias
  • Silver price may fall toward the seven-month low of $55.63.
  • The 14-day RSI holds below 50, suggesting that downward momentum remains intact.
  • The immediate resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of $59.37.

XAG/USD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $58.10 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the spot price is remaining within the descending channel pattern. As long as the price continues to fluctuate within the parallel, downward-sloping trendlines, sellers remain firmly in control of the market momentum.

The XAG/USD pair is extending its decline below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the metal under firm bearish pressure. The clustering of short- and medium-term EMAs above price suggests rallies remain corrective within a broader downtrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.04 holds below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside bias rather than outright oversold stress.

The XAG/USD pair may target the immediate support at the seven-month low of $55.63, which was recorded on June 24. Further declines would put downward pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around $46.90.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of $59.37, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around $60.60. A break above the channel would support the XAG/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at $66.63.

Chart Analysis XAG/USD
XAG/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Jul 14, 17:13 HKT
Indian Rupee: Oil rebound clouds INR gains against US Dollar – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes India’s onshore markets are closely watching global geopolitical risks as Oil prices rebound. The report highlights USD/INR moving to the high-95 area before facing intervention, with stronger capital inflows into deposits, offshore borrowing and equities. However, higher global Oil prices are seen limiting near-term Rupee appreciation prospects.

Rupee weighed by higher Oil

"USDINR climbed further to high-95 handle on Monday but ran into stiff intervention."

"Despite an improved outlook for capital flows—supported by stronger inflows into non-resident deposits, a pickup in offshore borrowing, and foreign investors turning net buyers in domestic equities (July inflows of US$2.1bn into equities and US$700mn into debt)—the rebound in global oil prices has clouded the near-term prospects for rupee appreciation."

"Impact of high oil prices from 2Q is still filtering through incoming high-frequency numbers. June inflation accelerated to 4.4% yoy, an 18-month high, from 3.9% in May, reflecting the continued normalisation of food prices and pass-through of pump price increases implemented in mid-May."

"Markets are also focused on the spatial and geographical distribution of the ongoing southwest monsoon. The nationwide rainfall deficit had narrowed considerably in July, from a shortfall of over 40% at the end of June, although the momentum has weakened in the past 2-3days."

"While policymakers remain vigilant to weather and geopolitical risks, the lack of discernible spillovers to demand should limit any market tendency to frontload rate hike expectations."

"June goods trade deficit widened sharply to $30bn following a 31% increase in imports (40% jump in petroleum crude purchases) and second-largest electronics up 59% yoy. Trailing the strong performance of Asian peers, exports rose 15% yoy, receiving a hand from key categories including electronics."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 14, 17:03 HKT
Turkish Lira: Structural external gaps keep TRY under pressure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Turkey’s current-account deficit widened in May and remains structurally driven by savings-investment imbalances. Portfolio inflows are muted, with May showing renewed outflows and signs of capital flight. Net FX reserves excluding swaps are estimated around USD 30bn after heavy interventions, leading Ghose to conclude that the Turkish Lira (TRY) is likely to continue facing depreciation pressure.

Deficit, weak inflows strain FX reserves

"Turkey’s latest balance of payments data confirm that the external re-balancing story is far from firmly established. The current-account deficit widened by 32% yoy to USD 1.5bn in May, taking the cumulative Jan-May gap to USD 30.7bn and lifting the 12-month rolling deficit to USD 37.3bn (-2.3% of GDP)."

"In any case, the excluding gold and energy measure is rather nonsensical – only a ‘convenient’ distraction policymakers of many countries use – in reality, the current-account gap is a rather structural one in the medium-term, driven by twin gaps elsewhere in the economy (the savings-investment gap being an often-cited component)."

"On the financing side, portfolio inflow remains muted, which reflects lack of positive investor sentiment. After a brief USD 4.1bn inflow in April, May saw a USD 3.1bn net outflow, with non-residents selling USD 2.8bn of equities and investment fund shares and reducing exposure to domestic government debt."

"The relevant buffer for defending the lira is net FX reserves excluding swaps, which stand at only about USD 30bn by our calculation, not high as officials sometimes claim. This modest cushion follows a USD 33.3bn reserve drawdown over the first five months, largely caused by FX interventions trying to smooth the lira’s depreciation path."

"FX interventions and cosmetic reserve narratives cannot resolve the underlying imbalance between a still-sizeable current-account deficit and hesitant capital inflow. We think that the lira is likely to keep facing pressure."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 14, 17:01 HKT
BoE’s Bailey: Resumption of hostilities in Gulf underlines instability going forward

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that the “resumption of hostilities in the Gulf underlines instability going forward.”

Additional comments

The UK situation is supported by the fiscal framework as well as the monetary policy.

The big issue for the UK is growth in the economy.

Core banking system in the UK is resilient.

Debt levels are not stretched in the UK.

Market reaction

GBP/USD is holding higher ground near 1.3375, up 0.19% on the day, at the time of writing, little moved by these comments.

BoE FAQs

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.


Jul 14, 16:57 HKT
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slides to 162.00 as constructive setup favors bulls before US CPI
  • USD/JPY edges lower on Tuesday as the JPY draws some support from intervention risks.
  • The USD bulls turn cautious ahead of the US CPI and Fed’s Warsh, and weigh on the pair.
  • The downside seems limited amid a supportive fundamental backdrop and bullish setup.

The USD/JPY pair remains on the back foot through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Intervention risks support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for spot prices amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain close to a four-decade high, touched earlier this month, as traders await US consumer inflation figures and Federal Reserve's (Fed) Kevin Warsh's inaugural congressional testimony.

In the meantime, the persistently wide interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies, including the US, continues to undermine the JPY amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East crisis. Furthermore, escalating US-Iran tensions and firming Fed hike expectations, amid renewed inflation fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, help limit the USD losses and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices remain confined between two converging trend lines, forming a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Against the backdrop of a strong rally from the May monthly swing low, the said triangle might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase before the next leg up. Furthermore, a corrective pullback earlier this month showed resilience below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are relatively muted. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally positive near the zero line, hinting at a cautious upside tone rather than an impulsive rally. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout through the triangle resistance, near 162.55-162.60, before positioning for any further appreciation for the USD/JPY pair.

On the downside, the latest close at 162.10-162.00 forms initial intraday support, ahead of the rising trend-line floor at 161.60 and the 200-period EMA clustered near 161.15. A convincing break and acceptance below the latter would be needed to signal a deeper corrective phase in the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the uptrend is still intact despite the latest consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.16% -0.20% -0.15% -0.45% -0.35% -0.83% -0.27%
EUR 0.16% -0.03% 0.04% -0.29% -0.18% -0.66% -0.10%
GBP 0.20% 0.03% 0.07% -0.24% -0.13% -0.63% -0.06%
JPY 0.15% -0.04% -0.07% -0.31% -0.23% -0.71% -0.16%
CAD 0.45% 0.29% 0.24% 0.31% 0.09% -0.38% 0.17%
AUD 0.35% 0.18% 0.13% 0.23% -0.09% -0.48% 0.10%
NZD 0.83% 0.66% 0.63% 0.71% 0.38% 0.48% 0.56%
CHF 0.27% 0.10% 0.06% 0.16% -0.17% -0.10% -0.56%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Jul 14, 16:51 HKT
US Dollar Index: DXY could reach 102 as Gulf tensions persist - ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that higher Crude and Gulf tensions are not yet fully priced, leaving short-term upside risks for the US Dollar (USD). They highlight limited Fed guidance, rising odds of further tightening, and a United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) print unlikely to derail hawkish expectations. ING still holds a USD-negative year-end view but sees near-term upside toward US Dollar Index (DXY) 102.0.

Greenback supported by oil and Fed

"Short-term momentum is swinging back in favour of the dollar as the FX market is finally starting to take the Gulf re-escalation more seriously. Still, both oil (Brent is at $84/bl this morning) and the USD are showing reluctance to fully price back in another supply shock."

"That's despite the US reimposing a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and oil inventories at worryingly low levels. Overall US crude inventories (commercial+SPR) were 730.8m barrels as of 3 July, the lowest since 1984."

"This positive but contained USD reaction does seem a déjà vu of this spring. But conditions are different now. Reduced Fed guidance after a hawkish shift in June means allowing markets to speculate more aggressively on Fed tightening. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a hike in July, and 43bp by year-end."

"Fedspeak remains crucial at this stage: yesterday, Chris Waller warned a hike may be needed in the short term if core inflation stays hot. Chair Kevin Warsh starts his first House testimony today, but he may follow his low-guidance approach and give little away. Barr, Goolsbee, Cook and Bowman are all speaking today."

"Today's US June CPI release shouldn't severely dent markets' hawkish tendency. Headline should fall month-on-month due to lower energy prices, but core at 0.2% MoM isn't enough to dispel concerns about second-round effects."

"Our call for the remainder of the year remains USD negative, primarily resting on another de-escalation and dovish Fed view. But risks, especially in the near-term, are clearly shifting to the bullish side for the greenback, with 102.0 potentially being reached rapidly in DXY if the Hormuz blockade continues."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 14, 16:49 HKT
New Zealand Dollar holds gains near 0.5800, unfazed by risk aversion
  • NZD/USD rushes forward on Tuesday and reaches three-and-a-half-week highs, just below 0.5800.
  • Hawkish comments by RBNZ's Conway and upbeat Chinese Trade Balance data have boosted the Kiwi.
  • The US Dollar remains supported by rising hopes of near-term Fed rate hikes.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, hardly affected by the risk-averse scenario. Investors’ bets on further rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and bright data from China are offsetting market concerns about the economic impact of the Middle East conflict for now.

The NZD/USD pair has resumed its near-term bullish trend on Tuesday, after a mild pullback on Monday, as RBNZ official Paul Conway affirmed that the bank will have to “act more firmly to re-anchor inflation expectations". These comments endorse the hawkish stance of the last RBNZ monetary policy statement and hint at further rate hikes in the coming months.

China's Trade surplus beats expectations

Beyond that, data from China, a key partner of New Zealand, beat expectations. China’s Trade Balance surplus widened to USD 125.62 billion in June from USD 105.43 billion in May, beating expectations of a USD 121 billion surplus.

The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, which is weighing on Kiwi’s recovery. Waller affirmed on Monday that the central bank will be forced to hike rates in the near-term if inflation remains above the 2% target.

And that is actually what is expected to happen later on the day. June’s  Consumer Price Index (CPI) is seen easing to a 3.8% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) rate, from 4.2% in May, while the core CPI is seen growing at a 2.9% pace, unchanged from the previous month.

In this context, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will face the first of the two hearings before the US Congress, where he is likely to be questioned about the bank’s plans to fight inflation. Warsh does not like to provide further guidance, but his comments at these hearings are likely to provide some hints about the bank’s rate path.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.


Jul 14, 16:49 HKT
Euro declines against Canadian Dollar as oil prices rise
  • EUR/CAD depreciates as higher oil prices, driven by US-Iran tensions, boost the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
  • US CENTCOM launched new precision strikes on Iranian targets, emphasizing that over 50,000 American troops remain deployed regionally.
  • MUFG analysts project the central bank will deliver an additional 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming September meeting.

EUR/CAD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.6070 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains ground on higher oil prices. Crude oil prices rise due to rising supply concerns, which could be attributed to the escalating United States (US)-Iran tensions.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has executed fresh precision strikes against Iranian military targets, highlighting that more than 50,000 American troops remain deployed throughout the region.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for disabling two "offending supertankers" in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC alleged the vessels ignored maritime warnings and navigated through a mined route. Tehran has issued a stark warning that any cooperation with the US will prolong the closure of the strategic waterway and spark a global energy crisis.

Traders are closely watching for new signals on whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement further interest rate hikes later this year. The ECB raised its key policy rates during the June meeting. At that time, policymakers emphasized their commitment to a flexible, data-dependent approach for all future monetary policy decisions. MUFG analysts currently project that the central bank will deliver an additional 25-basis-point rate hike at its upcoming September meeting.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

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