Forex News
- Silver price trades broadly sideways around $72.50 as investors await Iran’s response to Trump’s Tuesday deadline.
- The US and Iran discuss a 45-day ceasefire, according to Axios.
- Investors await the FOMC minutes of the March policy meeting, releasing on Wednesday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.7% lower to near $72.50 in the late Asian trade on Monday, but is broadly consolidating in a limited range. The white metal turns sideways as investors await Iran’s response to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s ultimatum.
Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants and bridges if the nation doesn’t free the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 8:00 PM Eastern time (ET).
Latest comments from the Iranian foreign ministry signal that the Middle East nation won’t reopen the Hormuz and has warned of reciprocal attacks. “Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related,” a spokesperson from Iran’s foreign ministry said.
Meanwhile, there are some reports from Axios, reported by Bloomberg, claiming that the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire, a scenario that could result in a landmark de-escalation in the Middle East war if it gets approved, and would be favorable for the Silver price.
Theoretically, signs of easing geopolitical tensions diminish demand for precious metals, being the safe-haven assets. However, escalating global inflation projections due to the ongoing war, leading to hawkish monetary policy guidance from central banks, have battered their appeal, being non-yielding assets.
This week, investors will focus on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades almost flat at around $72.50 as of writing. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), capping recovery attempts. The recent sequence of lower closes from the mid-$90s underscores a downside structure, while the RSI at 43 shows momentum remaining on the weak side without reaching oversold territory, suggesting persistent selling pressure but no capitulation.
Immediate resistance aligns with the 20-day EMA near $75.20, and a daily close above this area would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward the $80.00 region. On the downside, initial support emerges around $70.00, guarding the path toward the late swing low near $66.70, where failure would expose the next bearish extension toward the March 23 low around $61.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected at 06:30 GMT to say in the second paragraph that the deadline for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz is Tuesday 08:00 ET not 09:00 ET)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD rebounds after retesting a four-month trough during the Asian session on Monday.
- Reports of a push for a US-Iran ceasefire weigh on the USD and lend some support to spot prices.
- Geopolitical risks remain in play, warranting caution before positioning for any further recovery.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.5680 region, or over a four-month trough retested during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices currently trade just above the 0.5700 mark, up nearly 0.25% for the day, though the upside potential seems limited.
Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The headlines offer a temporary respite to the fragile global risk sentiment and undermine the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status, which turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. Investors, however, remain on edge amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if Tehran does not meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. Iran, on the other hand, outlined a new condition and said that the transit through the strategic waterway could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages. Moreover, chances of a deal over the next 48 hours remain low.
Meanwhile, investors remain worried that the war-driven surge in energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, traders are now pricing in a greater probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs in 2026, which could act as a tailwind for the USD. This might cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bullish traders.
Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus later during the North American session amid thin liquidity on the back of the Easter Monday Holiday in many global financial markets. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- USD/CAD weakens to near 1.3940 in Monday’s early European session.
- The US and Iran are reportedly seeking a ceasefire.
- US NFP rose by 178,000 in March, more than expected.
The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.3940 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after reports that the US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that the US and Iran are exploring a 45-day ceasefire. Earlier, US President Donald Trump set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, threatening strikes on infrastructure if met with non-compliance.
Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours, posting a new deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 pm EST (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Easing tensions between the US and Iran could undermine a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback in the near term.
Rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could provide some support to the USD. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in stronger than expected, with the US economy adding 178,000 jobs in March. This figure followed a 133,000 decline (revised from -92,000) in February, above the market consensus of a 60,000 gain. The Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices retreat as traders await further developments surrounding US-Iran peace talks. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and lower crude oil prices generally have a negative impact on the CAD.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- US Dollar Index may rebound toward the 10-month high of 100.64.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 58, suggesting continued upward momentum.
- The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 99.95.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is inching lower after two days of gains and trading around 100.10 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the dollar index is consolidating within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the US Dollar Index holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which continue to trend higher and confirm an established uptrend. The recent pullback from last week’s peak has been shallow, with the short-term average still tracking above the medium-term line, signaling ongoing buying interest on dips rather than a full loss of momentum.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, indicating steady bullish pressure but not yet a stretched market.
The US Dollar Index may target the 10-month high of 100.64, which was recorded on March 31. Further advances would lead the DXY to explore the area around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 102.40.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 99.95, followed by the lower ascending channel boundary around 99.70. A break below the channel would put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to test the 50-day EMA at 99.02.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.24% | -0.24% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.01% | -0.18% | -0.20% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.15% | -0.18% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.19% | -0.20% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.18% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.30% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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