Forex News
Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer analyses how new US tariffs under President Trump affect exporters from Europe. Following a Supreme Court ruling against earlier measures, a new 15% global tariff for 150 days has been announced. The report focuses on the Turnberry Agreement and the heightened uncertainty for European Union exporters.
US tariff reset and Turnberry risks
"Last Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Trump's tariffs were unconstitutional. As a result, US President Trump imposed a new global tariff of 15% for 150 days on a different legal basis. If the US government now fails to comply with the existing trade agreements between the EU and the US, tariffs on some goods, such as cars, could rise."
"A key but unresolved question for European Union exporters is whether the “Turnberry Deal” between the US and the EU from the summer of 2025 will be honored. We consider this to be the more likely scenario for the coming months. In this case, little would change for many EU exporters."
"If the agreement is terminated, higher tariffs would apply on many goods than is currently the case. This will most likely also apply after the 150 days. This is because the Trump administration will use other laws to push through its tariff agenda."
"We also assume that the US government will use other laws for the period after the 150 days to keep the average tariff at around 15%, for example through sector-specific tariffs. As long as the average tariff remains at this level, Europe has no incentive to terminate the agreement. This is because the 15% tariff cap provides at least some certainty."
"Nevertheless, the likelihood of one of the two parties terminating the agreement has increased. In any case, uncertainty about future tariffs has risen once again."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/JPY tests the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at 182.80.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 47 is capping upside momentum.
- A break below the nine-day EMA at 182.62 may push the cross back into the descending channel.
EUR/JPY remains steady after three days of gains, trading around 182.70 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential bullish reversal as the currency cross is positioned slightly above the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 (neutral) stays below 50, tempering upside momentum.
EUR/JPY cross hovers just under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 182.80 while holding marginally above the nine-day EMA at 182.62. The short-term average steadies after a pullback, whereas the broader 50-day slope softens, underscoring a range-bound bias.
Momentum would improve on a close back above the 50-day EMA, would cause the emergence of the bullish bias, and support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, which was recorded on January 23.
On the downside, failure to hold the nine-day EMA could drag the EUR/JPY cross back into the descending channel and target the lower boundary of the channel around 177.80. Further declines below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around the four-month low of 175.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.11% | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.17% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.14% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.20% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | -0.12% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.14% | 0.06% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | -0.17% | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.06% | 0.07% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
National Bank of Canada's Ethan Currie highlights that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision striking down IEEPA‑based tariffs will halve the average effective tariff rate, but they stress the White House still has ample tools to keep tariffs high. They expect renewed use of Section 232 and broader sectoral levies as Washington seeks to preserve fiscal and strategic benefits of elevated tariff income.
IEEPA loss shifts focus to Section 232
"The Supreme Court struck down a series of IEEPA-implemented tariffs on Friday in a highly anticipated ruling. This will effectively cut the U.S. average effective tariff rate (AETR) in half, as most levies currently in effect were implemented through the emergency act."
"With nearly $290bln of tariff revenues collected in 2025, the current administration seems keen to keep tariff rates elevated—if not for the purpose of reshoring production or for the use of geopolitical leverage, the customs duties act as a fiscal buffer—required in part to help offset the high costs of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act."
"While IEEPA tariff implementation may no longer be feasible, the President has multiple avenues to rekindle the tariff rate to current levels (above 10%), if desired. For example, Section 232 allows for uncapped tariffs (on both the rate applied and the duration they are able to be applied for), and is the other primary mechanism for which the President has implemented tariffs through."
"These sectoral tariffs are likely to be reintroduced for other product groupings (in addition to those in place on metal products, autos, lumber, etc.), as the White House is currently conducting a series of trade reviews, similar to the process that was undertaken ahead of ‘Liberation Day’."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar is starting the week softer as investors reassess US trade policy and geopolitical risks involving Iran. He highlights the shift to a 15% Section 122 import surcharge and potential synchronized weakness in Treasuries, equities and the Dollar. Turner expects Federal Reserve commentary and US data to shape moves, with DXY likely confined to a 97.00-98.00 range.
Soft start as policy risks build
"On the trade side, the world now has to deal with a 15% Section 122 import surcharge, rather than the varying tariff levels imposed under the prior IEEPA regime. This means that the likes of China and Brazil could get lower tariff rates, but countries such as the UK and Australia would lose the advantage of their 10% negotiated deals."
"In our market reaction piece on Friday, we felt one of the cleanest moves would be for US Treasuries to weaken on fiscal concerns. Holidays in Asia have meant we have not seen much US Treasury action overnight, but certainly the FX market will be taking its cue from Treasuries today. There is a small chance of a synchronised sell-off in Treasuries, equities and the dollar if investors believe that one of the core pillars of Washington's economic policy is starting to crumble."
"For today, we are interested in a speech from the Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller at 2:00pm CET. He voted for a 25bp cut in January. Presumably, he will stay dovish today with his stance that a rate cut should prove precautionary against a further deterioration in the US labour market."
"Any less dovish statements could give the dollar a bounce, given the influential nature of his speeches over recent years."
"The risk of a military strike on Iran probably discourages heavy dollar selling this week, but we can see DXY softening within a 97.00-98.00 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD traders seem non-committal at the start of a new week amid a combination of diverging forces.
- Fresh USD selling exerts pressure, though weaker Oil prices undermine the Loonie and lend support.
- The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further near-term depreciation.
The USD/CAD pair finds some support near the 1.3645 region on Monday and, for now, seems to have stalled last week's late pullback from the vicinity of the monthly high. Spot prices, however, struggle to gain any meaningful positive traction and trade below the 1.3700 mark through the early European session.
The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and retreats further from its highest level since January as US President Donald Trump's new global tariffs of 15% triggers a fresh wave of the so-called 'sell America' trade. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices move away from over a six-month high amid concerns about the economic fallout from the trade war and its impact on fuel consumption, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair has been struggling to find acceptance above the 1.3700 mark, and the repeated failures near the said handle constitute the formation of a bearish double-top pattern on the daily chart. Moreover, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart slopes lower at 1.3718, reinforcing a downside bias. Spot prices hold beneath this gauge, which caps rebounds as dynamic resistance.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below the Signal line near the zero mark, while the histogram deepens in negative territory, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 49 (neutral), slipping just under its midline and pointing to fading demand. A recovery above the 200-period SMA would ease pressure, while failure to reclaim it would keep sellers in control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
(This story was corrected on February 23 at 14:15 GMT to say USD/CAD 4-hour chart, not USD/CADA.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage expects rate cuts from Bank of Israel and Hungarian National Bank as inflation softens and exchange rates remain elevated. The report notes that both ILS and HUF have been strong sources of tightening, with markets focused on whether easing cycles will be precautionary or more prolonged, given ample room to cut from high starting policy rates.
Israel and Hungary set for easing cycles
"In EMEA, Bank of Israel (BoI) and Hungarian National Bank (MNB) decisions this week are likely to yield cuts as central banks react to materially softer inflation and elevated exchange rate valuations. Pass-through is likely significant in both the Israeli and Hungarian economies, while strong fiscal impulse is also expected to soften, although still to elevated levels even by EM standards."
"Israel, BoI (February 23, Monday) – The BoI is expected to cut rates again to 3.75%, adding to the easing introduced in January’s surprise move. Inflation has struggled to register a positive sequential print over the past three months and is now expected to be anchored at below 2.0%."
"Domestic activity remains robust, but with USDILS struggling to rebound from multi-year lows, we doubt the BoI will take any chances, especially with minimal rate differentials between themselves and the Fed, which will restrict outflows, which traditionally help limit currency strength."
"Hungary, MNB (Tuesday, February 24) – The MNB is now expected to cut rates by 25bp to 6.25% after the surprise January inflation print, which pushed annualized inflation to the lowest levels in almost eight years."
"Nonetheless, the currency has also been a strong source of tightening, even though its performance has long since detached from rate differentials vs. the EUR. Markets will be highly attentive to the impending scale of the cycle as there remains ample room for significant cuts."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver price surges over 2% to near $86.50 amid uncertainty over the US trade policy’s outlook.
- The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
- US-Iran tensions continue to provide support to the Silver price.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 2.13% higher to near $86.50 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal strengthens as the United States (US) Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has revived trade uncertainty.
Theoretically, the safe-haven appeal of the Silver price increases in highly uncertain market conditions.
On Friday, the US SC accused President Trump of overstepping his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to back his tariff agenda and blocked so-called reciprocal tariffs, calling them “illegal”.
The US SC’s verdict against Trump’s tariffs has resulted in a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% lower to near 97.45.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price an attractive bet for investors.
Apart from the US trade policy uncertainty, tensions between the US and Iran over the nuclear programme in Tehran are also supporting the Silver price. Last week, a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that President Donald Trump is weighing a limited military strike on Iran to pressure Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal.
Silver technical analysis
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XAG/USD surges to near at $86.50 during the press time. Price holds above the 20-day EMA at $82.78, which has stabilized and begun to turn higher. This configuration supports a recovery bias towards the February 4 high of $92.21.
Looking down, the psychological level of $70.00 will remain a key support area for Silver price bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating that the broader trend is still sideways.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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