Forex News
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said during the European trading session on Monday that the administration is watching market moves, including long-term rates, with a very high sense of urgency. However, Kihara denied commenting on potential intervention in forex markets.
Market reaction
No immediate reaction in the Japanese Yen (JPY) is observed after Japan Kihara's comments. As of writing, USD/JPY trades almost flat to near 158.80 after giving back early gains.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports sharp corrections in Gold and Silver as higher yields and a stronger Dollar overwhelmed safe-haven demand. Silver underperformed after a prior high-beta rally linked to industrial metals and AI-related risk appetite. With Gold near 4,540, Wong sees near-term downside risks unless yields stabilise or Oil and geopolitical drivers ease.
Non-yielding metals face downside risks
"Gold and silver corrected sharply into the weekend, with silver bearing the brunt of the move after a week of price swings. Overnight, gold fell nearly 2.5% toward the US$4,500/oz area, while silver slumped around 9% to below US$76/oz at one point."
"The pressure point was rates, elevated oil prices revived inflation concerns, pushed yields and the USD higher, and overwhelmed the safe-haven bid for non-yielding metals."
"Gold last seen at 4540 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim. Support at 4452 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4340 (200 DMA). Resistance at 4670 (21 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 4730 (50 DMA) and 4850 levels (50% fibo)."
"Overall, the tone remains fragile unless yields stabilise or oil/geopolitical risks stop feeding into a more hawkish rates repricing. More constructive steps towards the reopening of Strait of Hormuz may help to provide support."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY attracts some buyers following an intraday dip to over a one-week low on Monday.
- Economic risks stemming from Middle East tensions undermine the JPY and support the cross.
- A modest USD pullback benefits the GBP and further contributes to the short-covering bounce.
The GBP/JPY cross stages a modest recovery from a one-and-a-half-week trough, set earlier this Monday, and retakes the 212.00 mark during the early European session. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak, with bulls now looking to conquer the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support breakpoint amid a combination of supporting factors.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is seen underperforming on the back of growing economic concerns due to rising Middle East tensions and continued disruptions to energy supplies through the critical Strait of Hormuz. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, benefits from a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from its highest level since April 7 and prompts some intraday short-covering around the GBP/JPY cross.
However, domestic political uncertainty might keep a lid on further GBP gains. In fact, calls for UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to step down have been rising following the ruling Labour Party's hefty losses in the local elections. Moreover, UK Health Minister Wes Streeting's resignation last Thursday points to a deepening crisis within the party, warranting caution before placing bullish bets on the GBP/JPY cross.
Furthermore, speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent corrective decline has run its course. Traders now look to the UK monthly employment details on Tuesday. This will be followed by the latest consumer inflation figures on Wednesday, which will provide a fresh impetus to the GBP.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.19% | 0.11% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.07% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.30% | 0.18% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.30% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.18% | 0.19% | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.21% | 0.10% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.07% | -0.05% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.15% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.29% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- Silver price tumbles to near $75 as global inflation expectations rise further due to rallying oil prices.
- The Fed is more likely to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
- US President Trump threatens serious consequences against Iran if it doesn’t agree to a deal.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down over 1% to near $75.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal extends its two-day massive decline as rising oil prices due to fears of the United States (US)-Iran war resumption have promoted global inflation expectations further.
During the day, the WTI Oil price jumped to near $103.86, the highest level seen so far this month.
Oil prices have increased further amid fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following threats from US President Trump that Iran would face serious consequences, through a post on Truth Social, if it doesn’t agree to a deal.
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Trump wrote over the weekend.
Escalating global inflation projections have boosted bond yields, a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver. As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.43% to near 4.62%. 10-year UK gilt yields jump 3% to near 5.19%, the highest level seen since the sub-prime crisis; however, rising UK political uncertainty has also strengthened them.
Meanwhile, traders have also priced out expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year is 54.5%, a sharp turnaround from two interest rate cuts anticipated during the peace time.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $75.08, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.59.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at a subdued 44.77, suggesting fading bullish momentum and reinforcing the notion that rallies are likely to encounter selling interest while price stays capped under the $77–79 area.
On the downside, the white metal could be exposed to the $70 zone, followed by the March 26 low of $66.71, if it fails to hold the upward-sloping border of the Ascending Triangle pattern around $75.00. Looking up, the 20-day EMA at $78.59 will be the key resistance level, and a break above the same would be needed to ease downside pressure. A sustained move above the 20-day EMA would allow the Silver price to rise towards $80.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Kingdom (UK) Deputy David Lammy to Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer said during the European trading session on Monday that the PM will not set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street, according to Sky News. "There will be no timetable for departure," Lammy told, adding that he had spoken to the PM twice on Sunday.
The comments from the UK Deputy Lammy to the PM reiterate Starmer's stance that he will continue his job, and a leadership change process has not been triggered yet.
Market reaction
Firm 10-year UK gilt yields near 5.18%, as of writing, suggest that investors are still confident about the UK leadership change. While there has been a sharp recovery in GBP/USD to near 1.3353, which appears to be the outcome of US Dollar Index (DXY) turning upside down.
UK gilt yields FAQs
UK Gilt Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding UK government bonds, or Gilts. Like other bonds, Gilts pay interest to holders at regular intervals, the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. The coupon is fixed but the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price. For example, a Gilt worth 100 Pounds Sterling might have a coupon of 5.0%. If the Gilt's price were to fall to 98 Pounds, the coupon would still be 5.0%, but the Gilt Yield would rise to 5.102% to reflect the decline in price.
Many factors influence Gilt yields, but the main ones are interest rates, the strength of the British economy, the liquidity of the bond market and the value of the Pound Sterling. Rising inflation will generally weaken Gilt prices and lead to higher Gilt yields because Gilts are long-term investments susceptible to inflation, which erodes their value. Higher interest rates impact existing Gilt yields because newly-issued Gilts will carry a higher, more attractive coupon. Liquidity can be a risk when there is a lack of buyers or sellers due to panic or preference for riskier assets.
Probably the most important factor influencing the level of Gilt yields is interest rates. These are set by the Bank of England (BoE) to ensure price stability. Higher interest rates will raise yields and lower the price of Gilts because new Gilts issued will bear a higher, more attractive coupon, reducing demand for older Gilts, which will see a corresponding decline in price.
Inflation is a key factor affecting Gilt yields as it impacts the value of the principal received by the holder at the end of the term, as well as the relative value of the repayments. Higher inflation deteriorates the value of Gilts over time, reflected in a higher yield (lower price). The opposite is true of lower inflation. In rare cases of deflation, a Gilt may rise in price – represented by a negative yield.
Foreign holders of Gilts are exposed to exchange-rate risk since Gilts are denominated in Pound Sterling. If the currency strengthens investors will realize a higher return and vice versa if it weakens. In addition, Gilt yields are highly correlated to the Pound Sterling. This is because yields are a reflection of interest rates and interest rate expectations, a key driver of Pound Sterling. Higher interest rates, raise the coupon on newly-issued Gilts, attracting more global investors. Since they are priced in Pounds, this increases demand for Pound Sterling.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 18:
The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength above 99.25, the highest since April 8, heading into the European trading session. The upside for the Greenback is bolstered by heightened risk aversion and shifting US interest rate expectations.
Market bets for the path of monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to shift towards possible rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 44.6% probability that the US central bank could raise the interest rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.14% | -0.09% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.04% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.21% | -0.12% | 0.06% | -0.20% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.14% | 0.12% | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.27% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump warned Iran that the "clock is ticking" as talks to bring the war to an end have stalled, per CNBC. Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday with his top national security advisers to discuss the options for military action regarding Iran.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) earlier on Monday showed that China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% year-over-year (YoY) in April, versus 1.7% prior. This figure came in worse than the 2.0% expected. Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period, compared to 5.7% in March, below the market consensus of 5.9%.
EUR/USD recovers some lost ground from a six-week low to near 1.1630 in the European morning. Hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers support the shared currency.
GBP/USD remains on the defensive around 1.3315, pressured by mounting domestic political instability and a severe sell-off in the UK government bond market.
USD/JPY edges higher to near 158.50 in the European morning on Thursday. Reuters reported on Monday that the Japanese government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic impact from the Middle East war.
Gold recovers to near $4,550, snapping the four-day losing streak. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the precious metal might be limited amid fears of rising inflation due to the protracted conflict between the US and Iran.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Brent remains supported as the oil market reprices ongoing supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran standoff and tensions in the Persian Gulf. They highlight stronger Brent above $110/bbl, constrained Iraqi exports via the Strait of Hormuz, and the expiry of a US waiver on Russian oil sales, all reinforcing market tightness.
Brent supported by tightening supply
"The oil market continues to reprice ongoing supply disruptions, with last week's Trump-Xi talks yielding no tangible progress in the Middle East."
"It’s no surprise that Brent is trading stronger this morning after the aggressive rhetoric, moving convincingly above $110/bbl."
"Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil ministry said that despite the disruptions in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the country still managed to export 10m barrels of oil in April."
"The ongoing supply disruptions mean the market has had to rely largely on inventory and alternative supply, where possible. This has included Russian oil, following the US's issuance of a waiver for Russian oil sales."
"However, this waiver expired over the weekend, and the US has not extended it so far, despite the significant tightness in the oil market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/GBP dips to session lows below 0.8720 in risk-off markets.
- Risk-averse markets and high Oil prices are weighing on the Euro on Monday.
- The overbought RSI momentum indicator hints at a consolidation or a corrective pullback.
The Euro (EUR) rally against the British Pound (GBP) has been capped at 0.8730 on Monday, and the pair retreats to session lows sub-0.08720 at the time of writing. The broader bias remains positive, but the Euro is struggling amid a sour market sentiment and higher Oil prices, while political uncertainty is keeping the Pound from appreciating further.
Investors are wary of taking excessive risks on Monday, as tensions between the US and Iran flare again, and Oil prices escalate. The barrel of Brent Crude Oil stands near $110.00, and the US benchmark WTI trades above $100.00, adding pressure to the Eurozone’s Oil-importing economies.
In the UK, political uncertainty is rising, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer fighting for survival amid a race to replace him within the Labour Party, keeping the Pound’s upside attempts in check. Earlier on Monday, the Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Sarah Breeden, warned about being “trigger-happy” with interest rates, which failed to support the GBP.
Technical Analysis: Euro bulls run out of gas
EUR/GBP maintains a constructive near-term bias, yet with upside attempts capped below 0.8730 for now. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought levels after a 0.7% rally in the previous two days, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows contracting bars, pointing to a fading bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is at the mentioned session high near 0.8730, which is closing the path towards early April highs at the 0.8740 area. On the downside, a confirmation below session lows near 0.8720 will bring Friday´s low, at 0.8700, into focus. Further down, the next support area is the May 14 low near 0.8655.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.18% | -0.08% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.20% | -0.04% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.11% | 0.10% | -0.19% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.20% | -0.07% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.25% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.22% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Danske Research Team reports that global equities fell on Friday and remain weak, with Asian markets and US and European futures softer. Energy was the only sector higher, while defensive, low-volatility and value factors outperformed within a broader equity sell-off, as fiscal concerns and oil-driven inflation risks triggered broad de-risking across markets.
Risk assets sold as bond rout deepens
"Equities fell on Friday, and the tone remains weak this morning. Asian markets are lower, and US and European futures are also trading softer, as the global bond sell-off continues and oil prices extend gains amid the still unresolved Iran/Hormuz situation."
"Friday's equity session was telling. Energy was the only sector higher, supported by the move in oil, while defensive, low-volatility and value factors outperformed."
"But importantly, this was not a clean stagflation trade. Materials and commodity-related equities were also sold, and both gold and silver were under pressure last week, especially on Friday."
"That matters. If the market were simply pricing a stronger nominal growth environment, cyclicals and commodities should have held up better. Instead, the message from markets is more uncomfortable: this is increasingly about higher long-end yields driven by fiscal concerns, inflation risk and oil and not by growth alone."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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