Forex News
- WTI price edges lower to near $91.75 in Friday’s early European session.
- The constructive outlook of WTI remains intact, with the price holding above the 100-day EMA.
- The first upside barrier emerges at $95.65; the initial support level to watch is $86.20.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $91.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI price declines as traders brace for the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran on Saturday in Pakistan. The US delegation will be led by US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.
A potential long-term deal with Iran could drag the WTI price lower. On the other hand, if negotiations collapse this weekend, the black hold could extend its upside as supply disruptions persist.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $75.13, keeping the broader bias constructive despite the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggests momentum has cooled back to neutral after the prior overbought phase.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near $95.65, en route to the $100.00 psychological level. The upper Bollinger band of $105.05 acts as a stronger barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the lower Bollinger band around $86.20, ahead of stronger structural demand at the 100-day EMA near $75.13, where the broader uptrend would be expected to attract dip-buying interest on deeper setbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/USD corrects to near 0.7065 after a four-day winning streak.
- Investors await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
- The US headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% YoY in March.
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend regarding the permanent ceasefire.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.23% | 0.25% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.09% | -0.03% | 0.12% | 0.16% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.16% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Market participants doubt that US-Iran talks will go on smoothly amid continued military attacks in Lebanon between Iran-backed Houthis and the Israeli army.
Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon, stating that Tel Aviv would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.
On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated, through a tweet on X, that he is open to direct negotiations with Lebanon after repeated requests from the nation.
On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to arrive significantly higher at 3.3% from 2.4% in February.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7065 as of writing. However, the pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6989. The pair has rebounded from last month’s lows and is stabilizing near recent highs.
However, the price needs a fresh trigger to extend its upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggling to break into the 60.00s zone.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6989, which reinforces the short-term bullish structure as long as it holds on closing bases. A daily close below this dynamic floor would signal fading upward momentum and expose a deeper correction towards the April 7 low around 0.6900.
Looking up, the April 9 high around 0.7100 is the immediate resistance; a decisive break above the same would allow the price to extend its rebound towards the March high at 0.7187.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.3%
Previous: 2.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- GBP/USD attracts some sellers as Hormuz risks act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD.
- The divergent BoE-Fed policy expectations favor bulls and act as a tailwind for spot prices.
- Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the crucial US consumer inflation figures.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to its highest level since late February, set earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3420-1.3415 region and seem poised to register strong weekly gains as investors now look to the latest US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation likely rose further in March amid the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices. This could further discourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for a while. Adding to this, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to the US Dollar (USD), which is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Iran halted shipping traffic through the strategic waterway in response to brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was not the agreement they had. Trump also warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails. This suggests that escalation risks remain on the table and supports Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, traders have sharply reduced Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets and are now pricing in roughly 30-40 basis points (bps) of increases by the year-end. This still marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Fed's signal for one interest rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027. This, in turn, favors the GBP/USD bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for any further losses.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- US Dollar Index stays firm on safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty over the fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
- US official confirms Lebanon–Israel talks will be held next week in Washington, DC.
- President Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is halting its four-day losing streak and trading around 98.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the North American session, a key catalyst for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) policy direction.
The Greenback remains supported by renewed risk aversion, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire. Market sentiment stays cautious as Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, despite Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will soon begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.
JD Vance, along with senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is scheduled to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a potential long-term deal with Iran. In contrast, Esmaeil Baghaei said any negotiations to end the conflict depend on US compliance with ceasefire commitments, including halting hostilities in Lebanon, an interpretation rejected by Washington and Israel.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's March Meeting Minutes indicate policymakers are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, while acknowledging that inflation risks linked to higher oil prices are becoming more balanced.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD consolidates its weekly gains as Hormuz risks offer some support to the US Dollar.
- The downside remains cushioned as traders await the latest US consumer inflation figures.
- The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for an extension of the weekly uptrend.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past four days and trades with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 mark during the Asian session on Friday. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid the lack of any meaningful US Dollar (USD) buying and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, due later today.
In the meantime, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and undermining the EUR/USD pair. However, hopes of Iran ceasefire stabilizing hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and offer some support to the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 1.1670 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March slide– favors the EUR/USD bulls. Moreover, momentum indicators underpin the constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 58, while staying short of overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory.
Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around 1.1742, followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.1820, with further barriers at 1.1931 and the prior swing high region near 1.2072. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 200-day SMA at 1.1672 and the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.1665, while deeper pullbacks would look toward the 23.6% level at 1.1568 and the March monthly swing low, just ahead of the 1.1400 round-figure mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.7%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
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