Forex News
- Silver remains capped by 20-, 50-, and 100-day SMAs below $80.
- RSI recovers toward 50, signaling fading but still bearish momentum.
- Break below $72.40 exposes $70.86 and $70.00 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price trims some of its Monday losses, recovering ground on Tuesday, up 0.69% in the day, trading at $73.22 after bouncing off a daily low of $72.41. An improvement in risk appetite is underpinning the precious metals segment. Still, the white metal remains capped by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75.94, a crucial level for buyers if they want to challenge the $80.00 figure again.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, further downside is seen as the key 20-, 50- and 100-day SMAs, each at $75.94, $77.77 and $79.52, respectively, stand in the way of the $80.00 psychological figure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish, but sellers are losing momentum as the index approaches the 50-neutral level.
If Silver finishes Tuesday’s session near the week’s lows at around $72.40, expect additional losses. The next support would be the April 29 swing low of $70.86, followed by the $70.00 mark.
Up next, the next area of interest would be the 200-day SMA at $62.52.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold recoveres as the fragile US-Iran ceasefire improves overall risk sentiment.
- Lower Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar help bullion regain traction.
- Traders now await Fed speeches and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Gold (XAU/USD) advances nearly 1% on Tuesday as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran improves risk appetite, with Wall Street trading higher. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,560 after bouncing off one-month lows of $4,500.
Bullion rises as lower yields offset sticky inflation worries now
Geopolitical headlines are dominating financial markets. On Monday, the US and Iran engaged in combat as the US Navy escorted commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as Washington implements "Operation Freedom." Consequently, Iran fired back as the US blockade of Iranian ports squeezes them.
The US military destroyed six Iranian boats, while Tehran launched attacks on United Arab Emirates (UAE) Oil facilities, triggering a jump in Oil prices. In tandem, the Greenback appreciated, but on Tuesday it remains steady, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the buck’s value versus six currencies, is modestly down 0.04% at 98.45. US Treasury yields, namely the 10-year T-note, drop 1.5 basis points to 4.416%, a tailwind for bullion, which usually benefits amid lower interest-rate environments.
As of writing, money markets expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged throughout 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
Aside from geopolitics, recent US data indicate a deceleration in economic activity for April. The ISM Services PMI declined to 53.6 from March’s reading of 54. The employment sub-components showed improvement, rising from 45.2 to 48, while the prices paid index remained steady at 70.7, near four-year highs last seen in April 2022.
Meanwhile, March’s trade deficit expanded, driven by increased AI investments, as imports grew 3.6% and exports rose 3.1%. Meanwhile, March’s JOLTS job openings dropped from 6.922 million to 6.866 million, falling short of the 6.83 million forecast.
On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams commented that policy is “well-positioned” amid the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. He said that a quick resolution to the conflict would clarify the future, adding that “I don’t feel, with all the uncertainty today, that we are in a position to provide strong guidance about where interest rates are likely to be in the next meetings.”
Despite advocating keeping rates unchanged, Williams added that the Fed “will need to cut rates at some point in the future,” as price pressures move toward the central bank’s 2% goal.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature speeches by Federal Reserve officials, as traders brace for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Technical outlook: Gold is sideways trading, ahead of NFP data
Gold price continues to trade sideways, unable to breach the top of the range, seen at around the psychological $4,700 mark on the upside, and the $4,500 figure on the downside. Momentum is bearish as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but the RSI is pointing upwards, not far from clearing the latest higher high, ahead of turning bullish.
For a bullish continuation, XAU/USD must surpass the $4,600 milestone. A breach of the latter will expose the May 1 high at $4,660. Once cleared, the next stop would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,703, followed by the confluence of a downtrend resistance trendline and the 100-day SMA at around $4,750-$4,755.
On the flip side, the first support for XAU/USD is $4,500. Once hurdled, the next area of interest would be the March 26 daily low of $4,351, before testing the 200-day SMA at $4,269.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao analyses recent Indian state election results, highlighting the BJP’s (Bharatiya Janata Party) historic gains in West Bengal and a third-term win in Assam, alongside shifts in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. She notes implications for welfare-heavy state budgets, fiscal deficits, and sectors such as railways and infrastructure, while also assessing risks to Indian assets from Brent, El Nino and bond yields.
Elections, fiscal risks and market impact
"State elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry sprang a few surprises."
"This marks an expansion in the ruling party’s reach beyond its traditional strongholds, expanding its pan-India presence and strengthening its position."
"State budgets have witnessed a sharp rise in welfare and populist spending in recent years, structurally lifting deficit ratios past 3% of GDP threshold in FY26 and likely FY27, also reflected in widening SDL [State Development Loans] spreads."
"A host of populist promises were also made in the run-up to these polls, which will add to the potential fiscal strain this year."
"Sectors like railways, infra, defence spending, industrial electrification, ports, and manufacturing are expected to benefit from this shift."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD trades in a narrow range as softer Oil prices and a firm USD weigh on the Canadian Dollar.
- Technically, the pair maintains a bearish outlook, but momentum shows signs of stabilization.
- Markets await the US and Canada employment data due later this week for fresh direction.
The USD/CAD pair trades in a narrow range on Tuesday, with choppy price action as a mild pullback in Oil prices puts modest pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3619 after hitting an intraday low of 1.3604.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is holding firm, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East helping limit deeper declines in the Greenback and keeping USD/CAD range-bound near recent lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.45, virtually unchanged on the day.
The pair has remained under steady downside pressure since early April, with price action largely driven by the interplay between US Dollar dynamics and Oil prices. While the broader bias remains tilted to the downside, technical indicators point to a possible near-term consolidation or corrective bounce.
Traders now await employment data from both the US and Canada due on Friday, which could influence interest rate expectations and provide fresh direction for USD/CAD.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades with a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aligned with the Bollinger Bands mid-line at 1.3697.
Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 40, suggesting consolidation and weak momentum without entering oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, with fading red histogram bars indicating easing bearish momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger mid-line at 1.3697, ahead of the upper band near 1.3852, with a more substantial cap at the horizontal barrier around 1.4000.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3543, with a break exposing the more distant horizontal floor at 1.3400, where stronger buying interest could reappear.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Asian FX has softened again as Oil prices jump on renewed Middle East tensions and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. They argue that higher energy import bills, inflation risks, firmer US Dollar (USD) and weaker risk sentiment are a negative mix for regional currencies, with Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) most vulnerable while Singapore Dollar (SGD) is expected to hold up relatively better.
Oil-sensitive currencies face renewed headwinds
"Asian FX struggled overnight as the late-Apr/early May relief proved short-lived. Oil prices jumped after fresh re-escalation in the Middle East, with reports of Iranian missile/drone attacks on the UAE and incidents around the Strait of Hormuz raising concerns that the fragile ceasefire may be at risk."
"The renewed oil shock revives the familiar negative mix for Asian FX — higher energy import bills, inflation risks, firmer USD/US Treasury yields and softer risk sentiment."
"In this environment, oil-sensitive Asian FX including PHP, INR, THB are likely to remain on the back foot, while lower-beta currencies such as SGD may continue to hold up relatively better, albeit not immune to a renewed oil and USD shock."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming, with USD/JPY modestly higher and clearing the low 157s in thin holiday trade. Wider yield spreads and lingering intervention risk keep price action erratic. Analysts see the near-term balance of risk favoring further USD/JPY upside, with limited resistance until the 159.00 area unless fresh official action emerges.
Yen weak as market eyes 159.00
"The yen is entering Tuesday’s NA session with a modest 0.2% decline as it underperforms all of the G10 currencies in mixed overall trade."
"Price action remains erratic as market participants balance the intensifying headwinds of wider yield spreads against the ever-present risk of intervention."
"USD/JPY has cleared the low 157s and levels that (likely) prompted ‘price checking’ activity in the aftermath of last week’s intervention and local markets remain closed for holidays (reopening May 7)."
"The near-term balance of risk favors USDJPY upside absent either fresh ‘price checking’ from the BoJ or outright official intervention on behalf of the MoF."
"We see limited resistance between current levels and 159.00."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver declines even as the US Dollar eases slightly.
- Higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to limit upside potential.
- Silver remains more vulnerable than Gold amid fragile momentum.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Tuesday, hovering around $73.05 at the time of writing, down 0.65% on the day, as the white metal struggles to gain traction despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD). The softer Greenback offers limited support, with investors remaining focused on the outlook for interest rates and global growth.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to fuel concerns over energy supply disruptions. Elevated Oil prices are reinforcing inflation fears, which in turn support expectations that central banks will maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer. This environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver, even as the US Dollar shows signs of weakening.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to remain cautious, with markets still pricing in a risk of tightening or, at the very least, delayed rate cuts. While a softer US Dollar typically supports precious metals, the impact is currently offset by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns.
Analysts at OCBC Bank emphasize Silver’s relatively fragile setup compared to Gold (XAU/USD). The bank notes that “momentum remains soft following a failed breakout, and rallies are likely to be sold unless the US Dollar, Treasury yields and risk sentiment turn more supportive.” They also highlight Silver's dual nature as both a precious and industrial metal, making it more sensitive to growth expectations and broader market sentiment.
On the macroeconomic front, recent US data points to a gradual cooling in the labor market and services sector, without significantly shifting expectations for monetary policy. Market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming releases, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could play a key role in shaping the Fed’s policy path.
In the near term, even with a slightly weaker US Dollar, the combination of high yields, persistent inflation risks and cautious sentiment continues to weigh on Silver, leaving downside risks dominant.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Nathan Janzen notes that higher Oil and Gold exports pushed Canada’s trade balance back into surplus in March, even as non-energy exports remain under pressure from U.S. tariffs. He highlights weak volumes in tariffed steel and lumber, but improving motor vehicle exports and strong equipment imports that signal firmer domestic demand and business investment.
Energy-led surplus offsets tariff headwinds
"The surge in oil prices and another jump in gold exports were the main factors pushing Canada's trade balance back into surplus in March."
"Beyond those products, the data was mixed but broadly consistent with an external demand backdrop still under pressure from U.S. tariffs, but also still showing signs of stabilization."
"Excluding price impacts exports still declined by an annualized 2.4% in Q1 as a whole -- exports of (heavily tariffed) steel and lumber products were still running 50% and 22%, respectively, below year ago levels."
"A surge in Q1 imports leaves net trade tracking a large 4 ppts from Q1 GDP growth, but also is consistent with offset from relatively resilient domestic demand, including a 17% (annualized rate) increase in industrial equipment and imports -- a positive sign for Canadian business investment."
"Significant trade uncertainty remains with negotiations on CUSMA renewal likely to intensify in coming months, but we continue to expect, as a base-case, that a more stable U.S. tariff backdrop in 2026 (albeit still at significantly higher tariff rates for some products) will leave trade as less of a headwind to growth than it was in 2025."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD trades on the front foot as softer US yields pressure the US Dollar.
- Middle East tensions keep market sentiment fragile, limiting upside in EUR/USD.
- Markets dial up Fed and ECB rate hike bets amid energy-driven inflation risks.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as a mild pullback in Oil prices pushes US Treasury yields lower, adding pressure on the Greenback. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1701, rebounding from an intraday low of 1.1676.
Despite the intraday bounce, the upside in EUR/USD appears limited as market sentiment remains fragile following renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which could help limit losses in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.40, down about 0.07% on the day.
Reports of fresh attacks in the Gulf region on Monday have cast doubt over the durability of the ongoing ceasefire. However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran is “not over” despite escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that US President Donald Trump will decide if the recent tensions count as a violation.
This has helped ease fears of an immediate escalation and triggered a pullback in Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down around 3% at the time of writing.
However, Oil prices remain elevated overall, keeping inflation risks in focus and raising expectations that major central banks may need to adopt a more hawkish stance. Traders are now pricing in at least two rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year. That said, uncertainty remains over whether the ECB can deliver aggressive rate hikes, given the Eurozone’s high exposure to energy shocks.
ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday he does not yet see “sufficient signs for a rate hike,” while adding the bank “will raise rates if it sees second-round effects."
In the US, the CME FedWatch tool shows the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain on hold in the near term, while the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting has risen to around 27%, up from near zero a week ago.
Traders also digested the latest US economic data. US JOLTS Job Openings fell to 6.866 million in March, slightly above expectations of 6.83 million but down from 6.922 million in February. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI edged lower to 53.6 in April from 54 in the previous month, coming in just below market expectations of 53.7.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- The DJIA is recovering most of Monday's losses to trade above 49,000, supported by softer Oil prices and another wave of earnings beats.
- The S&P 500 is up around 0.70% while the Nasdaq Composite has set a fresh intraday record above 25K, led by tech and chip names.
- WTI crude is off 3% even as Iran continues to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, raising questions about how much of the disruption equity markets are actually pricing in.
- Markets now look ahead to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print, with consensus expecting a sharp slowdown in headline job creation.
US equities are trading higher on Tuesday as crude prices ease and a wave of stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings reinforces the thesis that profits, not policy, are doing the heavy lifting in this market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up around 0.30% and back above 49,000, recovering most of Monday's 1.10% drop. The S&P 500 is gaining close to 0.70%, while the Nasdaq Composite is up about 1% after setting a new intraday all-time high above 25K. The session is unfolding against a notably sanguine read on the US-Iran ceasefire, even as fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz suggest the situation on the ground is anything but stable.
Markets shrug off ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption
The energy complex is unwinding a chunk of Monday's spike. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are down 3% at above $102 per barrel, while Brent crude is off 2% at above $111 per barrel. The pullback is happening despite a continued drumbeat of Iranian harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran has reportedly attacked vessels nine times since the ceasefire was first announced. Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine flagged on Tuesday that around 22.5K mariners remain unable to transit the chokepoint, with hundreds of ships queued and waiting on US naval cover. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's line that the ceasefire "certainly holds" is doing a lot of work in those circumstances. The market response suggests investors are treating the US escort regime as a permanent feature rather than a fragile workaround. That is a notable read, and one worth flagging: equities are pricing the Strait as effectively reopened, while the underlying conflict shows no signs of de-escalating. Oil-sensitive cyclicals are catching a bid on that interpretation, with industrials and transports leading the rebound off Monday's lows.
Earnings keep doing the heavy lifting
Tuesday's reaction set is a straightforward win for the bulls. Pfizer (PFE) is up around 2% after its first-quarter earnings and revenue topped consensus, with the pharmaceuticals giant reaffirming its full-year 2026 outlook. Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) is up roughly 8%, posting its first quarterly beer volume growth in three years and beating both top and bottom lines. Intel (INTC) is the standout single-stock move, surging around 10% after Bloomberg reported that Apple (AAPL) is in early-stage talks with the chipmaker about US-based chip manufacturing. Micron (MU) is up another 5% as analysts continue to lift price targets on AI-driven high-bandwidth memory demand. The cumulative message is one the market has been hearing all earnings season: revenue and EPS surprises are running well ahead of historical averages, and that has been enough to absorb most of the macro noise.
Palantir slips despite a blowout
Not every earnings winner is trading like one. Palantir (PLTR) shares are down roughly 3% even after the data analytics firm posted record Q1 revenue, beat consensus on EPS, and raised full-year guidance. Q1 sales grew 85% YoY against a Wall Street expectation closer to 75%. The reaction is the cleanest read in the market on a question that keeps getting louder: how much of future growth is already in the multiple? Shares are still down close to 20% year-to-date, and a guidance raise that would have been celebrated at almost any other AI name has been met with profit-taking. It is implication territory, not a thesis, but the price action suggests valuation discipline is starting to show up where it has been notably absent.
Services data softens, all eyes on Friday's NFP
Today's data is supportive of risk on balance but contains a few wrinkles. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed at 53.6, marginally below the 53.7 consensus, while the S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 51.7 versus 52 expected. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March registered 6.87 million openings, slightly above expectations, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) flagged a sharp uptick in the hiring rate to 3.5%. None of this is enough on its own to shift Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, particularly with multiple hawkish dissents at the last meeting still fresh in mind. The bigger event sits at the end of the week: Friday's NFP release, where consensus calls for headline job growth of just 60K versus 178K prior. With ADP on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and a heavy slate of Fed speakers including Williams, Goolsbee, Hammack, and Kashkari, the next 72 hours will likely set the tone for the May rate path conversation.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Futures FAQs
The futures market is an exchange-based auction in which participants buy and sell contracts of an underlying asset at a predetermined future date and price. The set price is agreed upon today and is derived from the underlying asset. Futures contracts can be based on a wide range of assets, with commodities among the most popular, although currencies and indices are other common underlying assets. Futures prices depend on their underlying asset and act as a mechanism for firms, institutions, and large-position traders to manage risks through hedging.
Futures can be traded in different ways. The most common ways are via a regulated exchange or via Contracts For Difference (CFDs). In the former, liquidity is high and pricing is more transparent, with the broker serving only as an intermediary between you and the market. Still, it generally requires more capital. The largest futures exchanges are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME). As for CFDs, these require less capital and thus trading is more flexible, but at the cost of less transparency.
The E-mini S&P 500 index, Crude Oil (Brent, WTI), Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper, and soft commodities such as grains are among the most actively traded contracts. These offer strong liquidity and are closely followed by traders worldwide. Futures market volume consistently exceeds spot market volume, often significantly. This dominance is driven by leverage, hedging, and higher liquidity on exchanges.
Yes. Future gauges, particularly equity index futures such as those of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, are widely considered key gauges of market sentiment because they reflect investors’ expectations for the next session’s opening price. When equity futures drop, it is a sign of risk-aversion, signaling bearish market sentiment. On the contrary, rising equity futures suggest markets are risk on.
As a futures contract approaches its maturity date, the futures price converges upon the spot price, becoming almost identical at expiration. However, prices can diverge significantly before the contract ends. A market is in contango when future prices are higher than spot prices, while the mirror image is called backwardation (when current prices are higher than future prices). For commodities, the normal state of the market is contango because holding the asset over time incurs costs such as storage or insurance fees. When markets turn from contango to backwardation – or vice versa – it signals a shift in the trend: a change from contango to backwardation is taken as a bullish sign, while going from backwardation to contango is generally considered bearish.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
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