Forex News

Swiss Gold exports fell sharply in October, particularly to China and India, reflecting signs of slowing demand after Gold prices hit record highs, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Gold exports to China collapse over 90% in October

"The rise in the Gold price to a record level in October has left visible signs of slowing demand. Swiss Gold exports declined into almost all major regions in October, as data from the customs authorities showed. The decline in shipments to China was particularly pronounced, falling by more than 90% to 2 tons. The decline in exports to India was not nearly as sharp, falling by 14% to 26 tons."

"However, data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and the Indian Central Bank showed an increase in India's Gold imports last month. Gold exports to the US and the UK also declined in October. Only shipments to Turkey recorded an increase. After ten months, Switzerland's Gold exports to China are a good 50% lower than in the previous year."

"The decline to India amounts to 44%. In contrast, there have been significant increases for the US and the UK, with deliveries to the US concentrated mainly in the first quarter, when tariff concerns led to strong deliveries to Comex. In contrast, the last two months have seen stronger flows from the US to Switzerland."

The US jobs report for way back in September was certainly better than expected with the headline NFP stronger than the consensus. Still, there were plenty of weakness in certain sectors of the economy within the report and again private education and health and government jobs made up a large portion of total NFP – 81K of the total. But looking at just the NFP it will certainly add credence to those at the Fed arguing for caution – 'many' FOMC members according to the minutes from the October meeting want to pause at the December meeting, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.

FOMC expected to hold rates steady on December 10

"But the dollar failed to advance and front-end yields dropped a touch mainly due to the tick higher in the unemployment rate – from 4.32% to 4.44% and so not far from hitting 4.5%. We are somewhat surprised by the attention to the tick higher in the unemployment rate. Of course this is always an important element of the jobs data but the tick higher was not based on particularly bad news. The household survey data revealed a 470k increase in the labour force in September, outdoing the 251k new jobs created which resulted in the higher unemployment rate. It was the second consecutive month that the labour force expanded by more than job creation. "

"The inability of the dollar to advance further could also be explained by the claims data. While the initial claims data did not indicate anything alarming, the continued claims total did increase to a new cyclical high, underlining the continued gradual weakening of labour market conditions. Additionally, the AI/Tech concerns have not gone away following another solid earnings report from Nvidia. The focus ahead of Nvidia’s results reflected overall AI valuation concerns and positive Nvidia earnings have not shifted those concerns. If this pull-back in AI/Tech extends it could well reinforce a worsening of sentiment into year-end that would weigh on US dollar sentiment."

"All that said, it is unlikely to alter the likelihood of the FOMC holding off cutting rates on 10th December. There are no more NFP reports before then and the jobs report yesterday was just not weak enough to see the Fed cutting. 10bps of easing remains priced in the OIS market for the December meeting and the removal of that pricing should support yields and the dollar. Only a financial market disruption, like a bigger AI-related market sell-off, would make a rate cut more plausible again."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 7.1100 and 7.1220. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade between 7.1020 and 7.1285, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to trade in a range for a while

24-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated yesterday that 'the slight increase in upward momentum could lead to USD testing 7.1220', we stated that 'a clear break above this level is unlikely'. We pointed out that 'support levels are at 7.1120 and 7.1080'. USD subsequently traded within a range of 7.1124 and 7.1205, closing largely unchanged at 7.1194 (+0.02%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1100 and 7.1220."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 7.1155), we revised our view from negative to positive. We indicated that the recent 'USD weakness has stabilised, and for the time being, we expect USD to trade between 7.1020 and 7.1285'. There is no change in our view."

• AUD/USD trades around 0.6440 on Friday, down 0.10%, despite improving Australian PMI figures.
• Expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut weaken the US Dollar but fail to lift the Aussie.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a cautious stance as economic data continues to outperform.

AUD/USD softens slightly on Friday, trading around 0.6440 and down 0.10% at the time of writing. The decline comes despite supportive domestic data, as the pair struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound amid mixed global sentiment.

Australia’s economic momentum remains encouraging. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.6 in November, improving from 49.7 previously and returning to expansion territory. The Services PMI increased to 52.7, while the Composite PMI strengthened to 52.6, reflecting broad-based resilience across key sectors.

This performance reinforces the cautious but steady approach of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Minutes from the November meeting signaled that policymakers may keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period if economic indicators continue to outperform. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated on Thursday that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures,” noting that monthly inflation data can be volatile and should not prompt a premature policy reaction.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly weaker as markets increase their bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at the December meeting. Recent US labor data strengthened this view. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September, beating the consensus of 50,000, but the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.4%, and wage growth remained contained. The moderation in labor conditions has encouraged some investors to anticipate policy easing.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the October meeting revealed a divided committee, with several members expressing doubts about the necessity of a December rate reduction. Nonetheless, the CME FedWatch tool shows that investors now assign a 36% chance to a 25-basis-point cut, up from the 30% priced the previous day.

Political noise in Washington also adds uncertainty to the USD outlook. US President Donald Trump stated earlier this week that he would “love” to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and already has a preferred successor in mind, reinforcing volatility around US monetary policy expectations.

Despite these supportive factors, AUD/USD remains unable to gain traction on Friday and trades slightly lower on the day, reflecting consolidation ahead of key US PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index releases expected later in the day.

• Gold retraces previous gains and dips to $4.025 with the $4,000 level on the bears' focus.
• Hawkish Fed minutes and mixed US jobs data have boosted the US Dollar.
• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and a slew of Fed speakers will drive markets during the US session.

Gold (XAU/USD) has retraced gains from the previous three days, with precious metals on retreat as investors pare back hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The pair failed at the $4.100 area on Thursday and has pulled back to retest $4,025 support area, which guards the $4,000 psychological level.

The release of hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday cast doubt on a Fed rate cut at the December 10 meeting, and the long-awaited September’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report has pointed in the same direction.

September’s NFP report showed that the US economy added 119K new jobs in September, beating expectations of a 50K gain and following a downwardly revised 4K decline. On the negative side, the Unemployment Rate increased unexpectedly to 4.4% from 4.3% in August.

Technical Analysis: Gold comes under renewed bearish pressure

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,043.23, with the rising trend line from late October lows offering support near $4,025. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the early November rally, at $3,997, underpins the pullback.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below zero and extends lower, suggesting weakening momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.21, below the 50 midline, highlighting the negative momentum.

Immediate resistance aligns at the November 2 highs around $4,119 ahead of the November 13 low, at the $4,1250 area, and the November 14 high near $4,210. Support is seen at the mentioned $4,025. and $3,997 levels. A downside break could expose the November 6 low, at $3,970ahead of the November 4 low, near 3,930.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

EUR/USD holds above 1.1500 as solid Eurozone business activity supports an extended ECB pause, while market pricing still factors in potential rate cuts, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD supported versus Fed policy

"EUR/USD is holding above support at 1.1500. Eurozone business activity remains solid in November and supports the case for an extended ECB pause. The composite PMI printed at 52.4 in November (consensus: 52.5) down slightly from a 29-month high at 52.5 in October. The services PMI unexpectedly increased to an 18-month high at 53.1 (consensus: 52.8) vs. 53.0 in November while the manufacturing PMI dipped to a 5-month low at 49.7 (consensus: 50.1) vs. 50.0 in October."

"The regional breakdown showed the German composite PMI eased to 52.1 (consensus: 53.5) from a 29-month high of 53.9 in October. In contrast, France’s composite PMI recovered more than expected to a 15-month high at 49.9 (consensus: 48.1) vs. 47.7 in October driven entirely by the service sector."

"The swaps market continues to price-in about 40% odds that the ECB delivers one more 25bps cut in the next 12 months to 1.75%. We think the ECB is done easing as policy is close to neutral while the Fed has more cuts in the pipeline (84bps price in the next 12 months) given that policy is still restrictive. Bottom line: relative ECB/Fed policy stance suggests EUR/USD should hold above its 200-day moving average, currently at 1.1405."

US Dollar (USD) is expected to continue moving higher; the next level to watch is 158.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/JPY is expected to continue moving higher

24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD rallied sharply to a high of 157.18 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that 'the sharp rise appears excessive, but there is scope for the rally in USD to test 157.55'. We added, 'the next resistance at 158.00 is likely out of reach for now'. We were not wrong, as USD rose to a high of 157.89. USD retreated from the high to close at 157.46 (+0.20%). Although upward momentum is easing, it is too early to expect a sustained pullback. Today, USD is likely to trade at these higher levels, probably between 157.00 and 158.00. To put it another way, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 158.00."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive on USD early this week. Yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 157.10), we highlighted that 'we continue to expect a higher USD, and the level to watch is 158.00'. There is no change in our view. Looking ahead, if USD breaks clearly above 158.00, the focus will shift to 158.45. We will maintain our positive view as long as USD holds above the ‘strong support’ at 156.20 (level was at 155.60 yesterday)."

GBP/USD is trading heavy above key support at 1.3000. Disappointing UK economic activity and the expected fiscal drag from the upcoming UK budget leave room for the BOE to deliver more easing than is currently priced-in (63bps in the next 12 months). As such, we expect GBP to keep underperforming on the crosses, BBH FX analysts report.

UK manufacturing shows modest strength amid broader slowdown

"UK retail sales growth falls more than expected in October with retailers reporting that consumers held back in preparation for Black Friday discounts. Total retail sales volumes dropped -1.1% m/m (consensus: -0.2%) vs. 0.7% in September (revised up from 0.5%). Excluding auto fuel, retail sales volumes declined -1.0% m/m (consensus: -0.5%) vs. 0.7% in September (revised up from 0.6%)."

"UK private sector growth almost stalls in November. The composite PMI dropped to a 2-month low at 50.5 (consensus: 51.8) vs. 52.2 in October, reflecting a sharp loss of momentum in the service sector. The services PMI plunged to a 7-month low at 50.5 (consensus: 52.0) vs. 52.3 in October while the manufacturing PMI increased to a 14-month high at 50.2 (consensus: 49.2) vs. 49.7 in October."

"The UK fiscal backdrop worsened in October. Borrowing in the financial year to October was £116.8 billion; this was £9.0 billion more than in the same seven-month period of 2024, and £9.9 billion more than the Office for Budget Responsibility projected in March. To shore up the deteriorating fiscal position, the UK government will likely prioritize tax hikes over spending cuts in the budget due on November 26."