Forex News
- The Indian Rupee soars against the US Dollar on the finalization of the US-Iran deal.
- Plunging oil prices due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as per the post from US President Trump.
- The selling pressure from overseas investors in the Indian stock market slowed down in the last two trading days.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades strongly against the US Dollar (USD) in India's afternoon trading hours on Monday. The USD/INR pair plunges to near 94.60 as oil prices have nosedived, following the announcement that the United States (US) and Iran have reached a permanent peace deal.
In India’s opening trading hours, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is down 5.5% to near 7,630, the lowest level seen in almost two weeks.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves significantly when oil prices fall like a house of cards.
US-Iran finalizes MoU, Trump announces Hormuz reopening
On Sunday, both the US and Iran confirmed that they have finalized a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed Sunday that Tehran had finalized an MoU, saying all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would cease “immediately and permanently”, CNBC reported.
US President Donald Trump also said in a post on Truth Social, “I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the finalized MoU between the US and Iran will be signed on June 19 in Switzerland.
FIIs selling remain lower in last two trading days
Although Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days so far in June, a slowdown in the pace of selling pressure is observed in the last two trading days. So far this month, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 46,430.42 crore, an average selling of Rs. 4,643 crore in 10 trading days. In the last two trading days, the average selling by overseas investors was Rs. 1,534.63 crore.
India’s WPI Inflation rises strongly
On the domestic front, India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation data for May has arrived significantly higher at 9.68% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 9.1% estimates and April's reading of 8.3%.
Theoretically, higher inflation at the factory level boosts expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interest rate hikes in the near-term. However, the impact is expected to be limited as oil prices have started declining, a scenario that would anchor inflation expectations.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stabilizes below 20-day EMA
USD/INR tumbles to near 94.60 on Monday. The near-term bias of the pair turns bearish as it extends distance with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 95.33, on the downside.
The pair’s slide away from that dynamic barrier keeps the short-term trend under pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 leans lower, suggesting sellers retain control despite not yet reaching oversold territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.33, where a sustained break higher would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the way for a deeper corrective bounce towards 96.00. Looking down, the pair could slide to the May 7 low at 94.03 if it drops below the May 29 low at 94.46.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar has extended losses after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is expected to ease global economic risks and support a further reversal of prior Dollar gains, especially if the Fed under Kevin Warsh keeps rates on hold and avoids a hawkish surprise.
Dollar softens on Middle East deal
"The US Dollar has continued to weaken at the start of this week driven by the announcement over the weekend that the US and Iran have finally reached an interim agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz."
"For the US Dollar more broadly, the deal should encourage a further reversal of gains recorded during the conflict although market participants will be wary of building short positions ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday given the risk of a hawkish policy update."
"The US rate market has already moved to scale back Fed rate hike expectations, but there is room for US yields and the US Dollar to fall further if Kevin Warsh does not provide a hawkish policy surprise this week."
"The main risk to our view is that he indicates that the Fed is actively considering raising rates."
"The deal should help to reduce the risk of a more disruptive outcome for the global economy and financial markets."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting and to lean against market pricing for a 25 bps hike by year-end. With benign inflation and spare capacity, the updated forecast is likely to signal an extended hold, which the bank sees as a headwind for the Swedish Krona.
Extended Riksbank hold pressures SEK
"The Riksbank is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 1.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting (Thursday). We expect the Riksbank to lean against market pricing for a 25bps hike by year-end which is a headwind for SEK."
"The updated Riksbank forecast is likely to continue signaling no change in rates through Q4 2026, though it may bring forward the first full 25bps hike to late 2027 from Q1 2028. Sweden’s benign inflation backdrop alongside ample spare capacity in the economy argue for an extended Riksbank hold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Bank of England to hold at 3.75% with a 7–2 vote and sees the first fully priced 25 bps hike in November. They argue BoE tightening in a weak growth, high inflation environment is not bullish for the Pound and forecast GBP/USD falling to 1.3100, with UK political risks potentially amplifying downside.
UK policy and politics pressure Pound
"The BoE is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting (Thursday). A 7-2 vote split is anticipated, compared with an 8-1 split at the last April 30 meeting. Megan Greene is seen joining Huw Pill in supporting a 25bps hike."
"BoE rate hikes in a sluggish growth, high inflation environment, is not bullish for GBP but should help cushion the downside. We expect GBP/USD to fall to 1.3100, reflecting a stronger US growth outlook relative to the UK."
"The UK political backdrop can amplify a GBP decline, with Thursday’s Makerfield by-election a key event risk. Polls show Andy Burnham leading Reform UK by anywhere from 3 to 12 points, potentially clearing a path for his return to parliament and a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. A Burnham-led Labour government will likely lead to more spending and borrowing, worsening UK fiscal credibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $70.69 per troy ounce, up 3.91% from the $68.03 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 0.55% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 70.69 |
1 Gram | 2.27 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 61.37 on Monday, down from 62.03 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- WTI reached a three-month low of $78.60 on Monday.
- Oil supply concerns eased following reports that the US and Iran have reached a deal to end their conflict.
- US-Iran deal in Switzerland on June 19 will lift blockades and sanctions in exchange for dismantling Tehran’s nuclear program.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falls around 5%, reaching a three-month low of $78.60 per barrel on Monday. Crude oil prices declined to three-month lows on easing supply concerns following reports that the United States (US) and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict.
A breakthrough US-Iran peace agreement, announced Sunday and taking effect this Friday, will reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump confirmed the lifting of the naval blockade on Iranian ports, while European nations, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, stand ready to lift sanctions as Tehran dismantles its nuclear program in exchange for economic incentives.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that troops will stay in security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely to safeguard borders and communities. Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that the divisive issue of Iran's nuclear program will be tackled in upcoming negotiations.
While Iran's Mehr news agency reported plans to reopen the chokepoint within 30 days under Iranian arrangements, analysts warn a full recovery will take time. Reuters cited PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga, who noted that restoring oil traffic to its pre-crisis level of 20 million barrels per day could take anywhere from weeks to months.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Societe Generale highlights USD/JPY trading near 160, with dips bought despite lower Oil and expectations of a 25 bp BoJ hike. They stress that a BoJ move is seen as a foregone conclusion, but focus on what might narrow 2-year UST/JGB spreads and ease intervention pressure, as speculative short Japanese Yen positioning has reached multi-year highs.
Yen under pressure despite BoJ hike
"USD/JPY: 159.74 - 160.28 overnight range."
"Dip bought despite lower oil and prospect of 25bp hike by BoJ tomorrow, hints at positioning for hawkish Fed hold."
"Support 159, resistance 161.20."
"For USD/JPY in particular the stakes are running high."
"The 25bp rate hike by the BoJ should be a foregone conclusion tomorrow but what exactly will cause 2y UST/JGB spreads to narrow and lift pressure to intervene?"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The Eurozone industrial sector activity rises at a moderate pace of 0.1% in April, slower than 0.3% estimates, according to data published by Eurostat. March’s Industrial Production data was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.2%.
On an annualized basis, the industrial output rises by 0.3% after declining 2.8% in March, revised lower from -2.1% estimates.
Market reaction
The Euro (EUR) has not reacted to the weak Eurozone Industrial Production data for April. However, EUR/USD is up 0.35% to near 1.1610, as of writing, due to cheerful market sentiment.
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
The Industrial Production index, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price-adjusted output of industry. It is a widely-followed indicator to gauge the strength in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jun 15, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.1%
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%
Source: Eurostat
Societe Generale reports EUR/USD trading between 1.1569 and 1.1622 overnight, with the Euro bid above the 1.16 handle on the US–Iran MoU and lower Oil prices. They flag nearby support at 1.1555 and resistance at 1.1700, alongside sizeable option strikes around 1.1500–80 and 1.1600–60 that could influence short-term price action.
Euro supported by lower Oil prices
"EUR/USD: 1.1569 - 1.1622 overnight range."
"Euro bid above 1.16 handle on US/Iran MoU, lower oil."
"Support 1.1555, resistance 1.1700."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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