Forex News
- Gold price trades with mild gains around $4,795 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire.
- Higher-for-longer interest rates could weigh on the precious metals.
Gold price (XAU/USD) posts modest gains near $4,795 during the early Asian session on Friday. Traders weigh signs of easing geopolitical tensions against persistent inflationary pressures. The next meeting between the United States (US) and Iran may take place over the weekend.
Reuters reported that a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that he’d agreed to the truce in a bid to advance talks toward a “historic peace agreement” with Lebanon.
US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the possibility that the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire as the two countries negotiate an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace talks over the weekend for fresh impetus.
Meanwhile, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical concern. Any disruption to energy supplies could boost crude oil higher, fueling inflation and making central banks less likely to cut interest rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Higher demand from major central banks might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has extended its gold purchasing streak to 18 consecutive months through March 2026. This trend marks a structural shift as institutions prioritize de-dollarization and diversification amid rising global instability.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
OCBC’s strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe USD/MYR nearing key support as markets price optimism over US–Iran negotiations and a softer US Dollar (USD). They stress that Malaysia’s growth momentum and higher commodity prices continue to underpin foreign inflows, with a stable Renminbi (RMB) anchoring Malaysian Ringgit (MYR). A falling wedge suggests possible bullish reversal, with focus on 3.90–3.92 support and a potential move toward 3.88.
Repricing geopolitics with firm fundamentals
"Markets are repricing quickly on optimism that US and Iran are considering a return to the negotiation table while USD continued to trade on a softer footing."
"Fundamentals have not shifted – growth momentum remains intact, alongside higher commodity prices – and these drivers should continue to underpin foreign inflows."
"Elsewhere, a stable RMB continues to provide an anchor for MYR."
"Falling wedge observed – typically associated with a bullish reversal."
"Some support coming in around 3.90-3.92 levels. A decisive break below may see MYR challenge 3.88."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- UK Manufacturing Production fell 0.1% MoM and 0.5% YoY in February, offsetting a 0.5% MoM GDP beat and capping Sterling.
- Doubts over Trump's Iran deal and Israel-Lebanon ceasefire claims kept safe-haven flows supportive of the US Dollar.
GBP/USD gave up recent gains on Thursday, falling around 0.25% to settle close to 1.3525 after slipping back below the 1.3550 handle. Price drifted lower through the European and North American sessions in a steady grind rather than an impulsive move, with sellers leaning against intraday rallies. The pullback unwinds a portion of the rebound that followed Wednesday's spike toward 1.3600, with candle structure showing persistent supply on bounces.
UK economic data came in mixed. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.5% MoM in February against a 0.1% consensus, and the Index of Services printed 0.5% against 0.3% expected. However, Manufacturing Production slipped 0.1% MoM and contracted 0.5% YoY, missing forecasts on both reads, while Industrial Production YoY came in at negative 0.4% against a negative 0.9% consensus. The factory-sector softness offset the GDP beat and left Pound Sterling without a clear tailwind. Bank of England (BoE) Taylor is scheduled to speak twice in the London afternoon and evening.
Dollar-side drivers center on the Iran conflict that began with US-led strikes at the end of February. President Trump renewed claims on Thursday that the US is close to a deal with Iran to end the conflict, alongside announcing a forthcoming Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though markets remain skeptical that either is as close as advertised. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which now includes a US-backed blockade, is raising fears that sustained disruption to global energy supply will drive a fresh leg of inflation pressure in the coming weeks, keeping safe-haven flows broadly supportive of the Greenback.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3525. The pair holds a mild bearish intraday bias as price continues to track beneath the day’s open at 1.3571, keeping recent downside pressure intact despite the latest attempt to stabilize around the 1.3520–1.3530 band. The Stochastic RSI has eased back toward mid-range at 46.19 after earlier overbought readings, suggesting waning upside momentum and leaving the pair vulnerable to renewed selling if recovery attempts fail to extend.
On the downside, a clean break beneath the immediate 1.3520 area would expose the recent lows around 1.3520/1.3522 and then the psychological 1.3500 region, where buyers may look to regroup. On the topside, initial intraday recovery attempts would likely struggle toward the day’s open at 1.3571, and only a sustained move above that level would start to ease the current bearish tone on this short-term timeframe.
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3526, extending a constructive near-term tone above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which sit near 1.3412 and 1.3354 respectively. This positioning keeps the broader bias bullish, although the Stochastic Relative Strength Index at an overbought 94.6 hints that upside momentum is stretched and that the pair could be vulnerable to a corrective pause rather than a sustained acceleration higher in the very short term.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50-day EMA around 1.3412, with the 200-day EMA near 1.3354 providing a deeper structural floor if sellers gain traction. As long as spot holds above these EMAs on closing bases, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective within the prevailing uptrend, while any loss of the 200-day EMA would significantly weaken the current bullish outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY rebounds above 159.00 after testing weekly lows near 158.26.
- RSI trends lower toward 50, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
- Break above 159.50 targets 160.00 and 160.46 resistance levels.
The USD/JPY reclaims the 159.00 figure after reaching a weekly low of 158.26 amid mixed economic data in the US, strengthening the US Dollar, which rose to a two-day high of 98.29 according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the pair trades at 159.17, up 0.11%.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair remains upwardly biased, but verbal intervention by Japanese authorities could prevent the pair from testing the 160.00 figure and the subsequent year-to-date (YTD) high at 160.46.
Worth noting that momentum remains bullish, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but over the last sessions, it has been trending lower, about to cross below the index’s neutral level, hinting that sellers are stepping up.
However, if USD/JPY extends its gains past 159.50, a test of the 160.00 is on the cards. Once surpassed, the next area of interest would be the YTD high at 160.46, followed by July 10, 2024, at 161.81.
On the downside, the first support is 159.00, ahead of diving towards the day’s low of 158.26. Below this are the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 157.61 and the 100-day SMA at 156.97.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.03% | -0.30% | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.08% | -0.06% | -0.37% | 0.02% | 0.26% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.50% | -0.08% | 0.16% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.34% | 0.08% | 0.29% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.30% | 0.37% | 0.50% | 0.34% | 0.41% | 0.66% | 0.47% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.08% | -0.41% | 0.24% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.66% | -0.24% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.12% | -0.47% | -0.07% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD trades near 0.5890 with a muted tone as safe-haven demand keeps the US dollar supported.
- Strait of Hormuz disruption and Iran’s proposed transit toll raise concerns over global supply chains, boosting USD strength.
- Fragile Israel–Lebanon ceasefire and ongoing uncertainty around US–Iran talks keep risk sentiment weak, weighing on the Kiwi.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a muted tone around the 0.5890 area on Thursday, April 16, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to benefit from safe-haven flows driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing disruptions in global energy routes.
The Greenback remains strong as the Strait of Hormuz faces a “double blockage,” which only allows for partial tanker movement, providing limited relief. Iran's plan to impose a toll on transit set to be processed through its domestic banking system adds another layer of friction to global trade flows and raises concerns about prolonged supply constraints. Meanwhile, diplomatic progress is still elusive; talks between Washington and Tehran have not been confirmed, although US President Donald Trump suggested a potential meeting could occur over the weekend.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further complicated by recent developments. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is set to begin later on Thursday, but its credibility remains fragile. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that troops will remain in the South Lebanon buffer zone, while Hezbollah has warned that any continued Israeli presence justifies resistance. The group also emphasized that the ceasefire must not allow Israel operational freedom within Lebanon, indicating that the risks of renewed escalation are high.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5891, maintaining a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5792 while consolidating just below nearby resistance levels. The 20-period SMA at 0.5897 now caps the upside alongside a dense band of horizontal barriers around 0.5892 and 0.5901, suggesting upside progress is slowing, although the Relative Strength Index (14) near 56 still hints at mildly constructive momentum rather than overbought conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at 0.5892, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.5897; a sustained break above this zone would open the way toward 0.5965. On the downside, initial support emerges at 0.5887, ahead of a secondary floor at 0.5881, while a deeper pullback toward the 100-period SMA at 0.5792 would be needed to materially undermine the current constructive four-hour structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says China’s 5.0% growth, despite weak investment and retail sales, underscores reliance on external demand, keeping authorities wary of strong CNY appreciation. Beijing appears to allow only slight CNY gains versus the Dollar, balancing competitiveness and political pressure, and March data suggest state banks may have supported CNY. Commerzbank expects only slow CNY appreciation against USD.
Authorities manage controlled CNY gains
"While one might wonder how an economy can grow by 5.0% when investment is rising by 1.7% and retail sales are virtually stagnating on an inflation-adjusted basis, the implications for the CNY are relatively clear: the Chinese economy remains dependent on external demand- and thus on the performance of its exports - to generate economic growth."
"The government is therefore likely to remain keen to prevent the CNY from appreciating too sharply so as not to undermine competitiveness."
"On the other hand, the government wants to allow the CNY to appreciate slightly against the US dollar. This not only helps to somewhat alleviate international political pressure regarding high Chinese exports. The data from March also confirms this."
"With the onset of the Iran conflict, the CNY did not appreciate further against the US dollar in March. However, figures on the foreign assets of the major state-owned banks suggest that the government may well have even provided slight support to the CNY in March to prevent a depreciation."
"With the ceasefire in Iran and the current slight weakness of the USD, the appreciation of the CNY has resumed. For March, the decline in foreign assets by approximately 100 billion CNY in the Chinese banking sector suggests that a depreciation could very well have occurred. Looking ahead, we therefore continue to expect that the Chinese government will allow the CNY to appreciate only slowly against the USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with multiple world leaders this week, detailing the US' agenda of securing trade deals and policies aimed largely at reversing damage done through the first year of the Trump administration, specifically on earth minerals and general trade.
Key Bessent Highlights
Emphasized commitment to "Economic Fury" policy agenda during meeting with UK Chancellor Reeves.
Discussed critical minerals during meeting with Italian Economy Minister Giorgetti.
Reaffirmed 'strong alliance' between the US and Japan during meeting with Japan's Finance Minister.
- Australian Employment Change rose just 17.9K in March, missing the 20K consensus and well below February's 49.7K print.
- Markets remain fixated on the Iran conflict as the Strait of Hormuz closure and blockade raise fresh inflation risks.
AUD/USD snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, finishing nearly flat close to 0.7165 after failing to clear the 0.7200 handle earlier in the session. Price carved out a session high near 0.7200 before reversing in the North American afternoon, with the pair settling back into the broader consolidation zone that has defined recent price action. Candle structure points to hesitation at the 0.7200 round number, with small bodies and upper wicks signaling sellers defending the level.
Australian labor data provided little support for the Aussie, with Employment Change rising 17.9K in March against the 20K consensus, a sharp deceleration from February's 49.7K print. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked up to 5.9% from 5.2%. The mixed report did little to shift the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook but removed a potential tailwind for Aussie bulls ahead of a light Friday calendar.
On the US Dollar side, focus remains squarely on the Iran conflict that began with US-led strikes at the end of February. President Trump reiterated on Thursday that the US is close to securing a deal to end the conflict, alongside claims of a forthcoming Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though markets are treating both with skepticism. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, now including a US-backed blockade counterintuitively aimed at forcing its reopening, is raising fresh concerns that sustained supply disruption will feed into global inflation pressures in the weeks ahead.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7164, holding below today’s open at 0.7174, which keeps the near-term tone slightly capped despite the latest bounce. The elevated Stochastic RSI around 89 signals overbought intraday momentum, suggesting that upside attempts could struggle while price remains under the day’s opening level.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the day’s open at 0.7174, and a sustained break above this hurdle would be needed to ease the immediate bearish pressure. On the downside, the lack of nearby mapped supports from moving averages or prior structural levels in this dataset leaves the pair vulnerable to a deeper pullback if buyers fail to defend the current area.
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7163, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6995 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6770. The alignment of price well above these trend metrics hints at a sustained upside phase, although the Stochastic RSI at an overbought 96 suggests that bullish momentum is stretched and the pair could be vulnerable to a corrective pause or shallow pullback rather than an immediate continuation.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near 0.6995, with a deeper floor at the 200-day EMA around 0.6770 if selling accelerates. As long as AUD/USD holds above these moving averages, dips are likely to be treated as buying opportunities, while overbought momentum readings argue for cautious positioning on fresh longs at current levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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