Forex News
ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent are up around 2% after sharp volatility around $100/bbl as markets react to conflicting US‑Iran ceasefire signals. They highlight rising US crude inventories, mixed product balances, and ongoing Middle East disruptions, which are keeping European gas prices elevated and tightening seaborne crude flows to Asia.
Geopolitics and inventories drive crude
"Oil prices were volatile on Wednesday, trading on either side of $100/bbl, as markets weighed mixed signals around potential US‑Iran talks."
"Any credible de‑escalation could trigger a renewed risk‑on move, but for now uncertainty remains elevated."
"US oil inventories continued to build, with EIA data showing crude stocks rising by 6.9m barrels last week – marking a fifth consecutive increase and well above the 2.3m barrel build flagged by the API. Total crude stocks climbed to 456.2m barrels, the highest since June 2024, while Cushing inventories surged by 3.4m barrels to 30.9m barrels, the biggest weekly gain since January 2023. Crude imports fell to 6.5m b/d, while exports dropped sharply to 3.3m b/d, the lowest since November 2025."
"Product balances were mixed, with gasoline inventories falling by 2.6m barrels – slightly more than expected, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose by 3m barrels. Refinery utilisation increased by 1.5pp week-on-week to a robust 92.9%."
"Saudi Aramco is reportedly set to supply around 40m barrels of crude to China in April, while deliveries to India are expected to total roughly 23m barrels, slightly below last month. The decline reflects disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Aramco to reroute volumes via the Yanbu pipeline on the Red Sea, where export capacity of around 5m bbls/d remains well below pre‑conflict Gulf shipments. While the rerouting offers partial relief, it fails to fully offset lost capacity, pushing up costs for Asian importers and highlighting the conflict’s growing economic impact."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Nordea's Chief economist Kjetil Olsen and Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard note that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank now signals a policy rate hike to 4.25% at an upcoming meeting, with the new path pointing to 4.25–4.50% by year-end. They stress the central bank is more concerned about inflation and still expect the key rate at 4.25% in June and likely 4.50% by December.
Central bank signals further tightening
"Norges Bank signals a rate hike to 4.25% at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings and the new path indicates an increase in the policy rate to between 4¼ and 4½% by the end of this year."
"The new rate path from Norges Bank reflects a central bank more concerned about inflation."
"This means that even if the conflict is over tomorrow, one should expect a rate hike before summer."
"As we expected, Norges Bank now thinks they need to restrain the economy more than previously anticipated to bring inflation back to target within a reasonably time horizon."
"We therefore still think Norges Bank will hike its key rate to 4.25% in June and also that there is a greater chance that the key rate is 4.5% than 4% by year end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is trading just below 160.00 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases new underlying CPI indicators, which remain below the 2% target but are converging toward it. BBH economists expect a 25 bps BoJ hike to 1.00% at the April 28 meeting, with about two-thirds of that move already priced in.
BoJ data backs gradual tightening path
"USD/JPY is firmer just under 160.00. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published a set of underlying CPI indicators that will be released two business days after the official CPI. Trimmed mean, weighted median, and mode inflation are below the bank’s 2% target."
"While the three measures of CPI excluding institutional factors (like changes to consumption tax) are converging towards 2%. The data is consistent with the BoJ’s gradual normalization path."
"The BoJ’s next policy rate decision is on April 28 and will include the Outlook Report. Our base case is for the BoJ to deliver a 25bps rate hike to 1.00% at that meeting (66% priced-in) given Japan’s positive output gap (0.45% in Q3 2025) and solid results from the latest spring wage talks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY loses momentum after failing to extend gains past 213.30 highs.
- The risk-off sentiment is providing some support to the safe-haven Yen on Thursday.
- A break below the trendline support at 212.70 would confirm a bearish correction.
The Pound (GBP) is trading lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, snapping a four-day positive streak. The pair has retreated to levels below 213.00 after failing to extend gains beyond the March top in the 213.30 area, with the risk-off sentiment strengthening the case for some correction.
News from the US-Iran war remains confusing as the Islamic Republic’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, denied any direct talks with the US, while US President Donald Trump reiterates that Iranian leaders are begging to negotiate a peace deal. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel have kept exchanging attacks on Thursday. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the fourth consecutive week, boosting Brent Crude Oil to levels of $99 per barrel
Technical Analysis
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/JPY trades at 212.83. The near-term bias remains bullish as the pair holds above the rising support trend line from 210.59, but failure to breach the resistance area around 213.30 and softening technical indicators are strengthening the case for a bearish correction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back to 53, from levels around 60 on previous sessions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped to marginally negative levels. Furthermore, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, which suggests that bears are taking control.
Price action is now testing support at the bullish trendline from March 19 lows, now at 212,70. Further down, the March 24 low, at 212.26, will come to the focus ahead of the March 23 low, in the 211.60 area. Bulls, on the other hand, would have to breach the key resistance area at 213.30, aiming for the early February highs, at the 213.75 area and 214.05.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.52% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.05% | 0.35% | 0.25% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.07% | 0.32% | 0.24% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.11% | 0.38% | 0.30% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.59% | -0.35% | -0.32% | -0.49% | -0.38% | -0.07% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.52% | -0.25% | -0.24% | -0.39% | -0.30% | 0.07% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.20% | 0.07% | 0.09% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.37% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- Initial Jobless Claims increased to 210K vs. 205K the previous week.
- Continuing Jobless Claims went down to 1.819M.
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 210K for the week ending March 21. The latest print matched initial estimates and was higher than the previous week’s 205K (unrevised).
Additionally, the 4-week moving average went down a tad by 0.25K, bringing it to 210.5K from the unrevised average of the previous week (210.75K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims fell by 32K to 1.819M for the week ending March 14.
Market reaction
The Greenback adds to the weekly recovery on Thursday, prompting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to hit three-day highs near the key 100.00 mark. The Greenback’s improvement remains well underpinned by unabated tensions in the geopolitical landscape.
(This story was corrected on March 26 at 13:04 GMT to say that the Continuing Jobless Claims were for the week ending March 14, not March 7.)
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Forex Market News
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