Forex News
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY lacks clear directional cues in the short term, with intraday price action expected to remain confined between 157.55 and 158.45. Over the next one to three weeks, they see the pair trading in a broader 156.35–158.70 range. On a one to three month horizon, they highlight building downward momentum and potential further USD/JPY weakness.
Short-term ranges, medium-term downside risk
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we indicated that USD “could trade between 157.10 and 158.10.” USD subsequently fluctuated between 157.41 and 158.29, closing largely unchanged at 157.90 (+0.04%). The price action does not provide any clear directional clues. Today, USD could trade between 157.55 and 158.45."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (05 Oct, spot at 157.65). As highlighted, rather than continuing to pull back within the previously expected 156.00/158.70 range, USD “is likely to trade in a range between 156.35 and 158.70.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US private employers added an average of 23.750K jobs per week in late September.
- Job gains pick up momentum, adding to the previous week’s uptick.
Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in early September. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 23.750K jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 19.
That marks an acceptable rebound from the prior reading (22.50K), showing extra recovery in hiring.
Market reaction
The Greenback trades on the defensive on Tuesday, breaking below the 102.00 support level when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY) in the wake of the release.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Brazilian assets rallied after Flávio Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected first-round result boosted expectations for a more market-friendly policy mix. The Brazilian Real (BRL) could extend gains if runoff polls ahead of the 25 October vote continue to shift in his favour. However, they caution that elevated election uncertainty implies persistent BRL volatility.
Real supported by election repricing
"Brazilian risk assets surged after a market-friendly outcome in the first round of the presidential election. Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.1% of valid votes, ahead of President Lula's 45.0%, overturning expectations of a modest Lula lead suggested by pre-election polls."
"Markets responded positively as investors priced in a greater likelihood of a fiscally conservative and business-friendly policy agenda."
"A stronger showing from Bolsonaro and his allies has reinforced expectations of tighter fiscal discipline, greater private-sector support and stronger investor confidence, all of which have been key drivers of the rally in Brazilian assets."
"The BRL could continue to strengthen in the near term if polling ahead of the 25 October runoff points to a widening Bolsonaro lead."
"However, election uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting that BRL volatility is likely to persist until the final vote."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Euro pauses its seven-day decline against the British Pound as France’s fiscal concerns remain in focus.
- EUR/GBP remains below its key daily SMAs, while an RSI near 29 signals oversold conditions.
- Initial resistance stands at 0.8500, with the July low near 0.8455 providing immediate support.
EUR/GBP fluctuates between gains and losses on Tuesday, pausing a seven-day selloff driven by sharp weakness in the Euro (EUR) amid growing concerns over France’s fiscal position. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8488, virtually unchanged on the day and hovering above Monday’s low of 0.8458, its weakest level since July. A light economic calendar also contributes to the subdued price action.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.34% | 0.13% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.01% | 0.52% | 0.33% | 0.27% | 0.11% | 0.39% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | -0.01% | 0.52% | 0.29% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.40% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -0.22% | -0.29% | -0.41% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.33% | -0.29% | 0.22% | -0.08% | -0.22% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | -0.27% | -0.25% | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.16% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | -0.11% | -0.10% | 0.41% | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | -0.39% | -0.40% | 0.13% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Analysts at Rabobank report that “last week, we revised lower our forecasts for the EUR across the board,” emphasising that while the backdrop is challenging, “Europe’s circumstances are currently very different from either of these crises and we would be cautious of drawing comparisons.” Within Europe, they judge that “France’s political and fiscal issues are arguably in a more difficult position currently than those of the UK,” a contrast that has helped to shape their latest EUR/GBP view.
Rabobank notes that this relative divergence “has allowed EUR/GBP to push lower ahead of the October 28 UK budget and should cap upside potential for the currency pair.” Reflecting this, the bank’s “revised 3 month forecast for EUR/GBP stands at 0.85,” and now “sees EUR/GBP trading in a choppy range around current levels on a 1- to 3 month view.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP maintains a bearish near-term tone as it trades below the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), clustered between roughly 0.8565 and 0.8632.
Momentum indicators support the downside bias, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near oversold territory around 29, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and subdued Average Directional Index (ADX) near 22, suggesting a developing but not yet strong trend.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 0.8500 psychological mark, followed by a stronger barrier near 0.8540. Further gains would bring the 50-day SMA at 0.8565 and the 100-day SMA at 0.8581 into focus, reinforcing a broader resistance zone ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.8632.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near 0.8455, the July low. A sustained break below this level could expose the 0.8400 psychological mark. Overall, the prevailing technical setup leaves EUR/GBP vulnerable to further losses while the pair remains below its stacked daily SMAs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
