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Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months. However, Ghose warns that slower growth, ongoing central bank easing and fiscal concerns could reassert pressure on the Forint into 2027, as real interest rate support erodes.

Near-term recovery, longer-term headwinds

"The forint rally has corrected over the past month, but this correction should not be overhyped. The currency always was the highest-beta risk play in CEE, and therefore suffered disproportionately during the recent global risk-off episode. The combination of energy shock, geo-political risk and drought raises stagflation fears – weaker growth prospects, but higher inflation risk – which tends to hurt the forint more than the zloty or the koruna."

"In this sense, the recent move was less a reassessment of Hungary’s political story, and more a partial unwinding of a strong prior rally. We would not be surprised to see EUR/HUF gravitate back towards the 350-355 area if geopolitical and energy-market conditions were to stabilise."

"In conclusion, the near-term forint correction should not be over-emphasised. The regime-change story has not disappointed, Tisza’s ratings remain strong, and Magyar is moving ahead with reforms on multiple fronts. If the global risk backdrop stabilises, the forint can recover part of its recent losses, and EUR/HUF can move back towards the 350-355 area."

"Later, however, the familiar constraints will return. Engineering faster GDP growth, enacting meaningful reforms and implementing tighter fiscal policy will all involve significant challenges and trade-offs. The issue of slow trend growth in Hungary will be hard to address."

"At the same time, Hungary’s real interest rate is likely to narrow as MNB cuts rates and as underlying inflation momentum stops improving. Weak growth and a narrowing real interest rate will pressure the exchange rate later during 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TD Securities’ commodity strategists report that Gold is holding gains after weaker US jobs data reduced perceived Fed hike risks, but CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are unwinding length. They argue that with energy prices rising again, the stagflation narrative must strengthen for Gold to rally further, and note that prices need to exceed $4,400/oz for CTAs to re-add length.

CTAs trim exposure despite support

"Precious metals hit pause. The yellow metal is holding gains after the weaker jobs numbers further questioned the probability of coming Fed hikes."

"However, with energy prices grinding higher again, the stagflation narrative will need to solidify to see gold follow suit."

"For now, Asian appetite from top SHFE traders and continued ETF inflows offer support."

"CTAs on the other hand have begun unwinding length, with prices needing to top $4,400/oz to add back the length."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• WTI rises more than 3% on Monday, supported by persistent concerns over global Oil supply.
• Iran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade and war compensation before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure also keep the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises 3.20% on Monday and trades around $78.80 at the time of writing. Oil prices retain strong daily gains, supported by uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and persistent tensions in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of market attention due to its strategic importance for global energy supplies. Around 20% of global energy supply passes through the waterway, making the Oil market particularly sensitive to the risk of prolonged shipping disruptions.

Iran has reiterated several conditions before agreeing to fully reopen the strait. According to Al Jazeera, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, demanded, among other conditions, an end to the US naval blockade and the withdrawal of US naval and air forces from around Iran.

Tehran is also demanding compensation for damage caused by recent conflicts, the lifting of sanctions and the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets. These demands currently reduce visibility over a rapid normalization of shipping and help maintain a risk premium in WTI prices.

Meanwhile, talks with Oman over establishing a safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be progressing. However, the absence of an agreement on a full reopening keeps investors cautious about the risk of a prolonged disruption to Oil flows.

Regional tensions are not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have claimed responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The latest attack on major energy infrastructure reinforces concerns about the security of Oil supplies in the region.

Against this backdrop, developments in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain a key driver for WTI. Signs of an agreement allowing a sustained resumption of shipping could reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices, while a prolonged stalemate or further regional escalation could continue to support Crude Oil.

Oil supported as Hormuz uncertainty keeps CTAs long and US supply response builds

According to TD Securities, trend-following accounts have shifted back to the buy side, with “CTAs have turned buyers of crude oil and heating oil as a Hormuz deal remains elusive.” The bank notes that “CTAs are starting the week as buyers across WTI and Brent crude oil, along with heating oil,” as geopolitical risks remain elevated. TD highlights that a “Hormuz deal remains elusive,” while “the Houthis continued strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure, flows via Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain critically choked, and Russian exports and refining remain subdued amid continued Ukrainian attacks,” all of which are helping to underpin prices and CTA length.

ING similarly points to persistent geopolitical risk, stating that “oil prices remain supported by uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.” The bank notes that, while US President Donald Trump said Washington is “semi-negotiating” with Iran, suggesting a focus on economic pressure rather than military escalation, “significant hurdles remain before any broader agreement is reached.” ING adds that “reports indicate that Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on a shipping route through Hormuz, though a full reopening of the waterway is still likely to depend on progress in US-Iran talks.”

Despite the supportive backdrop, ING observes that speculative positioning has turned more cautious, with “money managers cut net long positions in NYMEX WTI by 7,257 lots to 101,050 lots, while net longs in ICE Brent fell by 20,361 lots to 164,722 lots, marking a second consecutive weekly decline.” On the fundamental side, ING notes that “US oil activity has continued to recover, with Baker Hughes data showing that the oil rig count rose by three to 454, the highest level since May 2025.” At the same time, “US crude exports remain elevated as buyers seek alternative supply sources, although much of the recent increase has been supported by inventory drawdowns rather than stronger production growth.”

WTI US Oil technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $78.69. The near-term tone is neutral-to-bullish as price holds above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $76.24, but remains capped just beneath the 200-hour SMA around $78.77 and the downward resistance trend line near $79.03. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in bullish territory near 64, suggesting upward momentum persists but is running into this nearby supply band.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered between the descending trend-line barrier at about $79.03 and the 200-hour SMA at $78.77; a sustained break above this zone would open the way for a more convincing recovery. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-hour SMA near $76.24, with a loss of this floor likely signaling fading bullish pressure and a deeper correction within the broader range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes AUD/USD has defended its 200-DMA and established a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signalling a short-term uptrend. The pair’s recent advance has stalled near the 100-DMA, but a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hold could spur further short covering. Key upside objectives are highlighted around 0.7120 and the June highs near 0.7200/0.7275, with 0.6920 as important support.

RBA stance and key moving averages

"AUD/USD defended the 200-DMA in June and has since formed a series of higher highs and higher lows on the daily time chart, highlighting the onset of a short-term uptrend."

"Notably, the pullback in November 2025 also found support around this moving average, reinforcing its significance."

"The next objectives could be located at projections of 0.7120 and the June highs near 0.7200/0.7275."

"The 200-DMA (currently near 0.6920) may act as an important support."

"Sequence of higher highs peters out around the 100dma (0.7053). Hawkish RBA hold tomorrow could attract fresh short covering."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that JPY is underperforming as firmer Oil prices support USD/JPY, while the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) latest meeting minutes did little to shift rate expectations. However, Haddad highlights that US-Japan rate differentials could narrow, with BoJ risks skewed hawkish and Federal Reserve (Fed) risks skewed dovish, implying a potential downside bias for USD/JPY over the coming months.

BoJ risks skewed to hawkish repricing

"JPY is underperforming all G10 FX and USD/JPY has retraced roughly 40% of its intervention-driven drop since July 30 as crude oil prices firmed."

"The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 board meeting did not move the needle on rate hike expectations. The swaps curve continues to price 64% odds of a BoJ hike to 1.25% at the next September 18 meeting."

"In July, the BoJ voted 8-1 to keep the policy rate at 1.00% while sticking to its hawkish bias. Takata Hajime supported a 25bps hike. The Summary of Opinions showed that a couple of members argued for the BoJ to focus more on containing upside price risks."

"One member noted it was “necessary for the Bank to accelerate the pace of adjustment to the degree of monetary accommodation.” Another member highlighted “it is necessary for the Bank to raise the policy interest rate, which is below the lower bound of the broadly estimated range.”"

"We see room for US-Japan interest rate differentials to narrow further in favor of a lower USD/JPY. Risks are skewed towards a hawkish BoJ repricing and a dovish Fed repricing."

"The BoJ’s policy rate is near the lower end of its neutral range estimate (1.10%-2.50%) while Japan’s economy is operating above potential. In contrast, Fed policy is restrictive (assuming a neutral rate of 3.00%) and the economy is operating around potential. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer. However, speculative sentiment in COMEX copper turned more supportive, with net long positions rising to their highest level since February 2021 on tight physical markets and low inventories.

Weak imports yet stronger Copper positioning

"In industrial metals, China's latest trade data showed continued weakness in copper imports. Unwrought copper imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 424.6kt in July, leaving year-to-date volumes down 6.2%."

"Copper concentrate imports also weakened, reflecting growing pressure from tighter mine supply. In contrast, iron ore imports rose 3.3% year-on-year to 108.1mt, although lower steel margins and maintenance activity continued to weigh on demand."

"On the export side, shipments of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased 18.6% year-on-year to 640kt as producers capitalised on supply disruptions and trade dislocations linked to the Middle East conflict. Steel exports rose 2.9% year-on-year to 10.1mt."

"Speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals. Money managers raised net long positions in COMEX copper by 11,306 lots to 77,796 lots, the highest since February 2021, as tight physical markets and low inventories supported prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that weaker US jobs data have not triggered a strong reaction in Dollar or rates, as markets await key Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases and another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Halpenny highlights softer wage growth back to pre-Covid levels, reduced inflation pressures from the labour market, and the impact of recent hawkish FOMC communications on sustaining Dollar pricing.

Dollar reacts cautiously to weak jobs

"Friday’s negative NFP print is likely to influence FX sentiment in the early part of the week, at least through to the CPI release on Wednesday – the key macro release of the week."

"That makes a lot of sense with the two CPI reports and another NFP report before the next FOMC meeting on 16th September meaning market participants were cautious about removing too much of the pricing for a hike at that meeting – the probability of a hike has still dropped from 55% to 40%."

"Still, the YoY rate for average hourly earnings fell from 3.5% to 3.2%, confirming the full retracement back to pre-covid levels and certainly underlining the lack of inflationary pressures coming from the labour market."

"Let’s see what the CPI data bring on Wednesday but another weaker than expected core CPI print (which would be the third month in a row) along with last week’s weaker jobs would certainly provide compelling ammunition for the doves on the FOMC although again we may not get a big market reaction this week either given the September data points lie ahead before the FOMC meeting."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Rabıobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Foley highlights resilient Eurozone data but also growth headwinds and limited appetite for strong Euro appreciation. Rabobank now expects EUR/USD to reach 1.16 in three months, assuming no major Eurozone growth surprises.

Euro gains on softer US outlook

"At the end of last month EUR/USD lurched higher. On Friday, the currency pair traded at its highest levels since June 17. This may give the illusion of a buoyant EUR."

"The release of the surprisingly soft US July labour market report was the clear trigger for the move higher in EUR/USD on Friday. The softer data dealt a blow to expectations of Fed rate hikes which knocked US yields and the greenback lower."

"Indeed, it is RaboResearch’s view that the Fed will hold rates steady this year, which suggests scope for further softness in the USD."

"Given than another ECB rate hike is already in the price, a move is unlikely to provide much additional upside incentive for the EUR. We see scope for a modest upside bias in EUR/USD in the months ahead, mostly reflecting a reduction in Fed rate hike speculation and we have brought forward our forecast of a move to 1.16 from 6mths to 3mth."

"That said, in the absence of upside growth surprises in Q3, we are doubtful that the market will be keen to rebuild substantial EUR long positions in the coming months."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes. They highlight that lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) allows the RBA to pause in August, while also expecting only limited changes to inflation forecasts despite elevated Oil prices.

RBA seen holding policy steady

"The RBA is in pause and observe mode as 1) policy is viewed to be restrictive, 2) activity (especially housing) is slowing in response to earlier hikes, and 3) the full impact of earlier hikes is yet to be felt."

"Lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI gives the RBA space to pause at the August meeting, with OIS markets pricing close to 0% odds of a hike."

"We also get new economic forecasts in the August Statement of Monetary Policy, but we doubt the RBA would downgrade its inflation forecasts sharply amid heightened inflation risks from elevated oil prices."

"We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35% (consensus: 4.35%)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end. The BoJ’s July MPM Summary of Opinions signals accommodative conditions but a tilt toward further tightening, with risks of larger hikes if action is delayed.

BoJ debate shifts to overshoot risks

"Long-end JGB pressure is building. Inflation risks and fiscal concerns have pushed long-end JGB yields toward the upper end of recent ranges."

"Several members argued that the bank should keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting to assess the lagged impact of the previous hike, but the overall tone favors further tightening."

"The debate has shifted away from lifting inflation to 2% and onto preventing an overshoot."

"Members also warned that waiting too long could force faster, larger rate hikes later, risking a “double shock.”"

"Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)