Forex News
TD Securities strategists reiterate their view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely need to raise the cash rate to 4.60% in this cycle. They note that the May policy statement suggests hesitation to hike in June, and expects the RBA minutes to clarify this. TD currently forecasts the next RBA cash rate increase in August, with a peak at 4.60%.
RBA minutes to guide hike path
"We discussed back in Feb that the RBA may ultimately need to take the cash rate to 4.60% in this cycle which looks increasingly likely."
"We forecast the next RBA cash rate hike in Aug, with the peak at 4.60%."
"It's just the timing that's the question."
"The May policy statement implies the RBA is hesitant to hike in June and the minutes may shed light on this."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao notes that China’s post-Q1 recovery lost momentum in April, with industrial output at a three-year low and fixed-asset investment shrinking. Domestic consumption remains fragile as retail sales barely grew and youth unemployment rose. While property prices show tentative stabilization, policymakers are expected to keep a patient stance and delay targeted fiscal and monetary support until H2 unless weakness persists.
Growth momentum fades as risks build
"China’s economic recovery stalled in April as industrial output hit a three-year low and fixed-asset investment contracted. Surging raw material costs and sluggish retail sales highlight severe domestic weakness. Although property price declines slightly moderated, pervasive household caution persists. Chinese policymakers will likely maintain a patient policy stance, delaying targeted stimulus interventions until H2."
"The economic momentum China generated during Q1 dissolved rapidly in April, exposing the persistent vulnerabilities of a lopsided recovery. Growth decelerated across all major economic pillars as the biting effects of a global energy crisis began to heavily pressure factory floors. Industrial production slowed down to 4.1% yoy in April, representing its lowest level in nearly three years."
"Domestic consumption remains the weakest link in the recovery narrative, with retail sales growth declining to a mere 0.2% yoy in April. This reading marks the poorest consumer performance since the pandemic exit shock in late 2022, fueled by a severe slump in big-ticket, credit-intensive purchases such as vehicles and home appliances."
"Because these real estate stabilization measures take time to filter into broader household confidence, Beijing is currently maintaining a cautious, wait-and-see policy approach. While this weak April data highlights rising headwinds, we are holding our growth outlook steady for now, as we expect the government to step in with targeted fiscal and monetary interventions in if these economic challenges persist."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish target for Gold at $5,400 by year-end.
- Central bank purchases are expected to increase, supporting Gold prices.
- Gold’s short-term outlook remains weak as higher yields globally weigh on investors’ appetite for the precious metal.
Central banks are expected to increase their Gold purchases in 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs say, supporting a much-needed boost to the precious metal toward the end of the year.
Central bank buying is expected to average 60 tonnes a month on average this year, more than the 12-month moving average of 50 tonnes seen in March, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note dated May 15, Bloomberg reports.
Central bank buying is considered one of the main factors supporting the Gold price, which reached an all-time high of around $5,600 per troy ounce at the end of January. “There’s a strong underlying interest in Gold, and recent geopolitical developments are likely to reinforce diversification,” the analysts said, citing an in-house survey.
Given the boost from institutional demand, the analysts maintained Gold’s price target by year-end at $5,400, close to its record high. The precious metal currently trades at around $4,500, weighed down by soaring global bond yields as inflation expectations continue to climb.
Despite the upbeat forecast, Goldman Sachs was more cautious when analyzing the near-term outlook for the metal. Gold is “a natural source of cash if private investors face liquidity needs — for example, if equity markets sell off amid higher rates and weaker growth expectations,” the analysts said.
Some central banks are already stepping up their purchases. According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has purchased 8 tonnes in April, the highest level since December 2024. Gold now accounts for approximately 9% of China's overall foreign exchange reserves.
In the first quarter, data from the WGC shows that global central banks bought 244 tonnes of Gold, a 3% increase compared with the same period a year earlier, despite a visible uptick in selling activity from certain countries during the quarter.
“Our view remains that investment and central bank demand will be supported by ongoing geopolitical risk, with further investment impetus from elevated inflation and persistent high gold prices,” the WGC said.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report renewed strength in European gas, with TTF breaking above EUR50/MWh as Middle East risks persist. They argue the gas market is underpricing supply impacts from the Persian Gulf, expecting Asian buyers to increase spot purchases and compete with Europe, while EU storage remains relatively tight versus its five-year average.
TTF gains as supply risks grow
"The European gas market is seeing renewed strength with little sign of a resolution in the Middle East."
"TTF broke above EUR50/MWh and this strength is continuing in early-morning trading today."
"We have highlighted several times that the gas market is underpricing the scale of the supply impact from the Persian Gulf."
"Asian buyers will need to enter the spot market to replace disrupted contracted cargoes from the Persian Gulf, increasing competition between Asian and European buyers."
"Storage in the EU remains relatively tight at 36% full compared to a 5-year average of 50% full."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that EUR/USD has lost downward momentum after slipping from 1.18 to 1.16, despite risk-off conditions and tumbling sentiment indicators. He links this resilience to a bearish Dollar consensus and to markets still pricing multiple ECB hikes, suggesting rate expectations must shift before EUR/USD trends decisively.
Euro holds despite risk-off backdrop
"Rates and equity markets are in ‘risk-off’ mode, the SG Sentiment Indicator is tumbling and yet, EUR/USD, having slipped from 1.18 to 1.16, has run out of downward momentum!"
"To some extent, this reflects the bearish USD consensus (President Trump wants a weaker dollar and lower rates and isn’t doing anything to make foreign investors relaxed about holding long dollar positions), and to some extent it reflects the fact that while the front end of the US rates curve is now pricing in a decent chance of a Fed hike this year (in which regard, Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes will be interesting) it is still pricing in 3 ECB hikes (and 2 ½ from the bank of England)."
"This still suggests that we need the rates market to move before FX can: If European rate hike expectations are questioned by the market (they look excessive given the economic outlook) the dollar is likely to get a lift (as it would if the FOMC minutes trigger a further rethink of the likely Fed rate path), but even so, any upward trend in the dollar is likely to be slowed by the underlying negative sentiment."
"Currently, the futures market is busy, once again, giving up on long USD positions."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a sharp bear steepening in US yields, with 30-year rates holding above 5% for four consecutive days for the first time since 2007. Markets now price in just over one additional Fed hike between July 2026 and June 2027. Attention turns to demand at current yield levels, including the 20-year auction and upcoming Fed minutes.
Long-end yields test demand this week
"The curve sharply bear steepened alongside oil on Friday in a global bond sell off, with 30y rates continuing to trade about 5%, the first time trading above the level for four consecutive days since July 2007."
"Markets began to price in over a hike in the cycle, with 32bp priced in between July 2026 and June 2027."
"Next week, markets will be focused on demand for rates at current levels."
"The 20y bond auction on Wednesday will grab attention with focus on the long-end after Friday's sell off."
"TIC flows will be released on Monday, which will help to gauge foreign demand for the month of March. "
"It will be a light data week, with Fed minutes grabbing the majority of the attention on Wednesday, particularly with three hawkish dissents on language at the meeting."
"In addition to minutes, Waller, Paulson and Barr are scheduled to speak."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rebounds toward $76.55 on Monday after last week’s sharp correction.
- Hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations are weighing on the US Dollar and supporting precious metals.
- Elevated US Treasury yields and persistent concerns about inflation continue to limit Silver’s upside potential.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $76.55 on Monday, up 0.80% on the day at the time of writing, as the white metal stabilizes after last week’s heavy sell-off. The rebound comes as the US Dollar (USD) weakens modestly following renewed optimism surrounding possible diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran.
Market sentiment improved after a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that discussions with Washington remain ongoing. According to Iranian officials, Tehran and Washington are reviewing a recent peace proposal, while technical discussions involving Iran and Oman are focused on restoring safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The softer tone surrounding Middle East tensions has reduced demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases toward the 99.10 area after reaching intraday highs earlier in the day, providing some support for Silver and other precious metals.
However, Silver’s recovery remains limited by persistently high global Bond yields and inflation concerns linked to elevated energy prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.6%, close to one-year highs, as investors continue to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.
Rising Crude Oil prices in recent days have reinforced fears that inflation could remain elevated for longer, leading markets to reduce expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are increasingly considering the possibility that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy this year.
Higher yields tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver. OCBC strategist Christopher Wong noted that the recent surge in US yields and the stronger US Dollar had reversed part of the momentum that previously supported Silver, adding that sentiment remains fragile unless yields stabilize further.
Additional pressure on the Silver market comes from India’s recent decision to curb a large portion of Silver imports, a measure aimed at reducing pressure on the Indian Rupee. UBS analysts also recently lowered their forecasts for global Silver investment demand, citing softer industrial demand and increasing mining supply.
Despite these headwinds, the weaker US Dollar and improved market sentiment are allowing Silver prices to recover modestly at the start of the week.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman expects the British Pound (GBP) to stay on a softer footing as UK political uncertainty rises. He links intensified selling in gilts and the Pound to Andy Burnham’s move to enter Parliament and potentially challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer, alongside concerns over a leftward policy shift, higher borrowing plans, and inflation risks from the energy price shock.
UK politics seen as headwind for Pound
"In contrast to the US dollar, the pound is expected to remain on a softer footing in the week ahead reflecting heightened political uncertainty in the UK, and fears that the Labour party will shift to the left under new leadership."
"It has been reported that he has called for GBP40 billion of additional government borrowing to fund long-term capital spending."
"The unfavourable domestic political developments come at a challenging time for the gilt market which is also facing the risk of much higher inflation from the energy price shock."
"We continue to hold a short GBP/CHF trade idea in the near-term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF hesitates near two-week highs with 0.7850 holding bears.
- Hopes about progress in the US-Iran peace process have lifted market sentiment on Monday.
- The pair maintains its bullish trend intact after breaking above a descending wedge.
The US Dollar (USD) hesitates against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday after rallying nearly 1.2% in the four previous trading days. The pair, however, maintains its bullish tone intact with dips contained above 0.7850 and two-week highs, at 0.7877, at a short distance.
A spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry eased risk aversion earlier on Monday, affirming on local media that peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran are going on and flagging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These comments weighed on the US Dollar’s rally, although investors remain cautious.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF breaks above the descending wedge pattern
USD/CHF maintains a constructive near-term tone, standing above the top of a descending wedge pattern, a figure that often anticipates a bullish outcome. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is around 60 after pulling back from overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows a moderate positive momentum.
Downside attempts remain capped above the confluence of early May highs, at the 0.7845 area and the reverse trendline, now at the 0.7835 area. A clear break below those levels negates the bullish bias and brings the May 13 and 14 lows, near 0.7800, back to the focus.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 0.7877 intraday highs. Further up, the next target is at the April 13 and 29 highs, in the 0.7925-0.7930 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.36% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.22% | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.22% | 0.40% | 0.34% | 0.23% | 0.00% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.44% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.34% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | -0.01% | -0.23% | 0.18% | 0.09% | -0.22% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.36% | 0.21% | -0.00% | 0.44% | 0.33% | 0.22% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.17% | 0.25% | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY's Bob Savage highlights that the Iran conflict, a drone attack in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and refinery constraints are pushing Brent toward $110, with fears of airline shutdowns and refinery limits. The UAE’s strategic exit from OPEC/OPEC+ and focus on bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, alongside expiring U.S. sanctions waivers on Russian and Iranian crude, underscore a structurally tighter Oil backdrop.
Middle East tensions keep crude elevated
"A drone attack on a UAE nuclear site, stalled talks with the U.S. and more shuttle diplomacy between Pakistan, Qatar and Iran have combined to drive oil 2% higher at the APAC open."
"The testing of Brent $110 is dominating the G7 Finance Meeting in Paris today."
"Previously producing over 3 million barrels per day (bpd), the UAE’s output has dropped to 1.8-2.1 million bpd due to the conflict in the region."
"The Trump administration has allowed the sanctions waiver on some Russian crude oil sales to expire, ending a brief easing period despite tight global oil markets caused by the Iran war."
"Abu Dhabi is accelerating the West-East pipeline project to double export capacity by 2027, aiming to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and enhance energy supply resilience."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
