Forex News
- WTI price drifts lower to near $69.80 in Monday’s early European session.
- US and Iran will resume talks after days of renewed attacks.
- The API weekly crude oil report will be published later on Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.80 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The WTI price declines amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks.
Axios reported on Monday that the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks and plan to meet in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday to resolve their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. This action came after renewed military strikes between Washington and Tehran over the weekend. Iran’s neighbors, Kuwait and Bahrain, also reported incoming missiles and drones overnight.
A US official said that “both sides will stand down for now, and vessels can move freely.” ING strategists noted that traders appeared to be too optimistic about the timeline for a recovery in Persian Gulf oil supplies.
“Even so, participants appear to be shrugging off these developments, instead focusing on what a continued recovery in oil flows would mean for the global balance,” said ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey.
Traders await the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil report, which is due later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 29:
Financial markets adopt a cautious stance at the beginning of the week as investors evaluate the latest developments surrounding the conflict between the United States (US) and Iran. The European economic calendar will feature business and consumer sentiment data for June. Later in the day, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver an intorudctory speech at ECB Forum on Central Banking.
The US and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted US military sites in neighboring countries, including Kuwait and Bahrain, after the US struck Iranian sites. Meanwhile, Iran demanded a full withdrawal of Israeli Forces from Lebanon as part of a final agreement with the US. A US official said on Sunday that the US and Iran will stand down on strikes and allow vessels to move freely. The official further noted that technical talks with Iran are set to conntinue on all areas of the Memorandum of Understanding. According to Axios, sides will meet in Doha on Tuesday for the next round of negotiations.
After closing the previous week in positive territory, the US Dollar (USD) Index holds steady above 101.00 in the European session on Monday, while US stock index futures cling to moderate gains.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.50% | -0.24% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.50% | -0.73% | -0.17% | -0.38% | 1.10% | 0.82% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.24% | 0.73% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 1.78% | 1.55% | 0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | 0.17% | -0.32% | -0.26% | 1.24% | 1.05% | -0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.38% | -0.31% | 0.26% | 1.49% | 1.32% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -1.55% | -1.10% | -1.78% | -1.24% | -1.49% | -0.21% | -1.37% | |
| NZD | -1.37% | -0.82% | -1.55% | -1.05% | -1.32% | 0.21% | -1.16% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.32% | -0.39% | 0.18% | -0.05% | 1.37% | 1.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Chris Kent said during a review of alternative monetary policy tools that the central bank will be better prepared to respond to the next crisis it faces. "The cash rate target remains our primary and preferred instrument," Kent added. These comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction and AUD/USD was last seen trading little changed on the day at around 0.6900.
EUR/USD trades marginally higher on the day near 1.1400 in the European morning on Monday.
GBP/USD recovers modestly to start the week and holds above 1.3200. The Bank of England will publish Consumer Credit data for May later in the session.
Gold struggles to extend its recovery and retreats toward $4,050 after posting two consecutive days of gains to end the previous week.
USD/JPY trades in a tight channel at around 161.80 in the European morning on Monday. The data from Japan showed earlier in the day that Retail Trade expanded by 5.3% on a yearly basis in May, surpassing the market expectation of 3.2%.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that US Treasury yields have eased only slightly, leaving the broader rates backdrop supportive for the Dollar. Elevated real yields and a “high-for-longer” US rate narrative keep USD demand firm and Asia FX under pressure. Market pricing still reflects a possible Fed hike around October, with limited USD downside unless US data or Fed guidance turn clearly dovish.
Real yields sustain strength
"Since the 18 June FOMC meeting, the global market narrative has shifted in favour of a “high-for-longer” US rates environment, keeping Asia FX under pressure. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has pivoted toward a more hawkish tone, signalling a stronger commitment to containing inflation. This policy shift is being reinforced by incoming data, with core PCE inflation still running above 3% and labour market conditions remaining resilient, pointing to continued macro strength."
"As such, market pricing for a potential Fed hike around October has remained intact. USD downside likely remains contained unless there is a clear dovish pivot by the Fed or a material deterioration of US macro data."
"While US Treasury yields have eased slightly in recent sessions, this has done little to alter the broader rates backdrop. Both the US 2-year and 10-year yields remain above 4%. More importantly, real yields (adjusted for breakeven inflation rates) remain elevated, anchoring USD demand."
"From a strategy perspective, this suggests that even if nominal yields consolidate in the near term, the underlying support for the dollar remains intact."
"Against this backdrop, most Asia FX have depreciated broadly since the FOMC, reflecting widening swap rate differentials and the persistence of a high-for-longer US rate environment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD remains flat at 1.3200, halfway through the last two weeks' trading range.
- Investors' appetite for risk remains subdued amid a fresh escalation of the US-Iran hostilities this weekend.
- Technical indicators are showing initial signs of bottoming at the 1.3050 area.
The British Pound (GBP) is practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with Pound bulls subdued amid rising geopolitical tensions and the UK’s political impasse, while the safe-haven USD treads water, awaiting an array of US employment indicators. The GBP/USD pair remains steady at 1.3200 halfway through the last two weeks’ trading range.
Investors are wary of risk at the week’s opening, despite the latest agreement to end a series of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, which had shaken a precarious ceasefire. US and Iranian negotiators have also agreed to restart peace talks this week, in the latest attempt to end a four-month-long conflict that threatened to collapse the global economy.
In the UK, political uncertainty is likely to keep the Pound’s upside attempts limited until the next Prime Minister starts to define his political agenda. In the US, on the other hand, a string of employment indicators, including Thursday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls report, are expected to shed further light on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
Technical Indicator: Pound shows initial signs of bottoming
GBP/USD trades at 1.3210, with the bearish bias still in place after a nearly 3% decline in the last two months. Recent price action, however, shows signs of a potential bottoming in the mid-range of the 1.3100s, with momentum indicators in 4-hour charts turning bullish.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) around 50.7 hints at neutral momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), hovering slightly above zero with a modestly positive line, shows an incipient upside pressure ahead of key resistance levels.
Bulls are likely to be tested at the top of the last two weeks' horizontal channel, near 1.3270 (June 22 high). Further up the 1.3320 area (June 8, 11 lows, and June 18 high) is likely to pose some resistance ahead of the mid-June highs at the 1.3440-1.3450 area.
On the downside, session lows at 1.3195 are holding bears on Monday, ahead of last week's horizontal floor at 1.3140, which guards the path toward the November 2025 lows near the 1.3000 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.15% | 0.05% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.25% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.09% | -0.09% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.08% | -0.11% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.32% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.13% | -0.00% | -0.18% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | -0.09% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.32% | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that GBP/USD continues to lack clear momentum, with intraday action expected between 1.3175 and 1.3225. The bank maintains a negative 1–3 week view, seeing scope for a drop toward 1.3110 while strong resistance at 1.3245 caps upside. Over the 1–3 month horizon, the pair is still seen broadly range-bound.
Range trade persists with downside risk
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following last Thursday’s price action, we indicated on Friday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and the fluctuations appear to be part of a range-trading phase.” We expected GBP to “trade between 1.3160 and 1.3220.” GBP subsequently traded within a range of 1.3182/1.3232 before settling at 1.3211 (+0.16%). Momentum indicators are still mostly flat, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3175 and 1.3225."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a negative GBP view since the middle of the month. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 1.3165), we indicated that “there is a chance for GBP to drop to 1.3110.” Although GBP has since recovered, the weakness has not stabilised yet, and we will maintain our view as long as 1.3245 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that recent EUR/USD weakness reflects Dollar strength rather than Euro fragility, with Fed expectations driving the move. He notes falling Oil prices and collapsing inflation expectations limit ECB hike prospects, while a softer Dollar would require Fed expectations to retreat. Commerzbank expects Euro area inflation to stay relatively high, but sees 1.18 in EUR/USD only returning over a longer horizon.
Euro strength constrained by Fed outlook
"It is important to bear in mind that lower EUR/USD levels are not due to any weakness in the euro itself. Since the decline began in mid-May, the euro has actually appreciated slightly against the G10 average. This movement is therefore entirely driven by a stronger US dollar, which has now even surpassed the peak reached during the height of the Iran conflict."
"Given that oil prices are falling again, however, the euro area inflation rate is likely to have peaked in May. It is therefore hardly surprising that inflation expectations have collapsed in recent weeks. A slightly lower inflation rate for June is likely to be reported this week."
"However, Fed expectations would need to return to previous levels. The collapse in inflation expectations would provide a reason for this, too. But despite expectations finally having fallen, the market seems to assume that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is a hawk who intends to tighten monetary policy."
"Our economists do expect inflation in the euro area to stabilise at a fairly high level in the coming months. The expected decline in June would therefore not mark the start of a new downward trend. If inflation reports in the coming months suggest more persistent price pressures, the euro is likely to benefit."
"In the longer term, however, higher EUR/USD levels are more likely to be driven by a weaker US dollar, although this is also likely to take some time. There is currently simply no decisive event to price out the Fed’s interest rate hikes. This week, the Supreme Court is expected to deliver its ruling on the case concerning Lisa Cook, the Fed governor whom the US President wishes to dismiss."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver price declines to near $58.60 due to renewed fears of global energy supply disruption.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said that responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz lies solely with Tehran.
- Investors await the US NFP data, which will be released on Thursday.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades almost 1% lower at around $58.60 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal is under pressure as trade of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran has renewed fears of energy flow disruption, a scenario that could boost oil prices.
Over the weekend, there was an exchange of attacks between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, which appeared to be a display of aggression by Tehran for not recognizing its authority near the chokepoint.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz lies solely with Tehran and warned that any attempt to bypass its preferred route in the waterway will cause “tension and escalation”, AlJazeera reported. However, later both nations agreed to a ceasefire and for talks in Omar on Tuesday.
Since the onset of the Middle East war, the Silver price has underperformed as higher oil prices prompted inflationary pressures globally.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday. Investors will closely track the data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $58.60, retaining a bearish near-term bias as it remains well under the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $65.37. The distance to this overhead EMA resistance hints that rebounds would likely be corrective within a broader downtrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.85 hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum is still dominant but could be nearing exhaustion.
On the topside, the March 23 low at $61.01 is the first meaningful resistance, followed by the 20-day EMA at $65.37. On the downside, the Silver price could extend its decline towards the psychological level of $50 if it falls below the June 24 low of $55.63.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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