Forex News
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX to stay broadly stable this week despite volatile rates and global headlines. The central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) is seen holding at 6.25% with focus on guidance, while regional data and political developments are monitored. Taborsky notes EUR/PLN, EUR/CZK and EUR/HUF are likely to remain within established ranges, with some hawkish risk from Hungary.
Regional banks and politics in focus
"The CEE region should be more visible this week compared to a quiet last week."
"On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary will decide on rates for the first time since the general election."
"At 6.25%, they should remain unchanged, and attention will be on forward guidance amid the energy shock – but also significantly stronger FX in response to the election result."
"CEE FX remains stable despite significant volatility in rates and global headlines."
"EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK seem to be strongly bound in ranges of 4.220-250 and 24.250-400, which will likely not change much this week either."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold stays pressured as stalled US-Iran talks keep geopolitical uncertainty elevated.
- Higher Treasury yields and a firmer US Dollar capped bullion’s rebound.
- Traders now eye the Fed meeting, ADP, housing and confidence data.
Gold (XAU/USD) price drops during the North American session on Monday as the Greenback trims some of its earlier losses amid a mild deterioration in risk appetite, driven by the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,673, down 0.75%.
Bullion weakens as higher-for-longer Fed bets outweigh haven role
Geopolitics keep the yellow metal pressured, even though Iran is poised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts the blockade on Iranian ports. Besides this, Tehran is proposing a three-stage process aimed at ending the war, the Strait of Hormuz issue, and discussing nuclear issues, reported Axios.
US President Donald Trump canceled his envoy’s trip to Pakistan over the weekend, calling it a waste of time. He added that although Iran sent a “much better” deal, it is not enough.
Expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer trumped Gold’s inflation hedge. The US 10-year Treasury yield is up 3.5 basis points to 4.342%, a headwind for the non-yielding metal.
The swaps market had priced in the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding rates steady in 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
Fed probability table

Aside from this, traders’ eyes are on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday and ends on Wednesday, with the unveiling of the monetary policy statement and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last press conference as the chief of the US central bank.
Jerome Powell is expected to be asked about his future at the Fed. Although his tenure as the Chairman of the Board ends on May 15, his term at the Fed would end on January 31, 2028.
Analysts revised up Gold forecasts
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll showed analysts expect higher prices for the non-yielding metal, citing “strong central bank demand and economic uncertainty expected to offset risks from surging inflation and hawkish policy bets due to the Middle East conflict.”
Towards the end of the year, bullion is expected to end 2026 at $4,916, according to the median, upwards from $4,746.50 estimates three weeks ago.
On Tuesday, the economic docket will feature the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, housing data, and the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence survey for April.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Further losses seen below $4,700
Gold price is consolidating below $4,700, with key resistance at the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both above $4,729 and $4,733, respectively. Over the last three trading days, although it has breached $4,700, bullion remains unable to clear key resistance levels, which could open the door to a recovery.
Momentum shows that bears are in charge, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Therefore, Middle East headlines that favor higher energy prices and a stronger US Dollar could pave the way for further downside.
The first support will be the $4,650 psychological level, ahead of $4,600. A breach of the latter will expose the April 2 daily low of $4,554.
On the flip side, if XAU/USD rises past $4,700, the 20- and 100-day SMAs are up next. A clearance of the $4,729/33 area will expose the $4,750 psychological level ahead of $4,800.

Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with Chair Powell maintaining a neutral stance on future policy. They see the Fed remaining on hold until September 2026 as it assesses Iran-related risks, before delivering a gradual 75 bps of easing through March 2027.
Powell’s last meeting and path ahead
"The policy rate will remain at 3.50-3.75% at the April FOMC. The labor market remains in balance while headline inflation has picked up due to the oil shock. Given the still-heightened level of uncertainty, we expect the Committee will reiterate a message of patience."
"With the DoJ [Department of Justice] dropping its investigation into Powell, it appears that this week could be Powell's last FOMC meeting as chair. As we discussed in our note last week, whether or not Powell stays on as governor once Warsh is confirmed will be up to him. Powell may provide guidance on this in his press conference, but he could also choose to make a statement at a later time."
"Warsh’s Senate hearing offered little clarity on near-term policy. We believe it will prove difficult for him to achieve cuts immediately given the heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict. He reiterated criticism of the Fed’s inflation performance, balance-sheet size, and forward guidance."
"We expect the Fed to remain on hold until September as they assess the developments in Iran and its impact on the economy. By then, inflation progress will have likely resumed, allowing for the Fed to continue its gradual move towards neutral. We look for 50bps total of easing this year in September and December with an additional 25bps cut in March 2027, ending with a Fed funds rate at 3.00%."
"We continue to expect that if the economic impacts from Iran moderate, the Fed can resume easing in September on inflation progress. Underlying inflation will likely improve after tariff and oil impacts fade, and we see little inflation risk from the labor market as will be evident in Q1 ECI this week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI holds firm as stalled US-Iran talks keep supply risks elevated through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran offers plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains over the US response.
- Technicals show a bullish bias, with momentum indicators easing but still supportive.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil holds steady on Monday, as stalled US-Iran peace talks reduce hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $95.00 per barrel, with shifting geopolitical headlines keeping volatility elevated.
A report by Axios, citing a US official and two sources familiar with the matter, said Iran has presented a new proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while leaving nuclear negotiations for a later stage. In response, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said US President Donald Trump had discussed Iran’s proposal with his team but added, “I would not say that the United States is considering Iran’s proposal.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual US-Iran blockade, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices as supply remains largely disrupted.
In an exclusive interview with MS NOW, Arsenio Dominguez, head of the United Nations’ maritime agency, said around 2,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that disruptions in the waterway are likely to persist long after the conflict ends.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations, particularly any signals from Washington on the proposal and progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A breakthrough could ease supply concerns and weigh on Oil prices. Until then, WTI is likely to remain supported amid ongoing supply concerns.

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a constructive bullish bias as the price holds well above its key moving averages. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85.97, together with the 100-day SMA at $72.87 and the 200-day SMA at $67.40, sits comfortably below spot and collectively underpins the broader uptrend.
Momentum has cooled from earlier overbought extremes, with the Relative Strength Index (14) now around 55, suggesting a more balanced but still positive tone, while the Average Directional Index (14) near 24 hints that trend strength has eased from prior elevated levels.
On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the 50-day SMA at $85.98, which marks the first key demand area should a deeper pullback unfold. Below that, the 100-day SMA at $72.88 and the 200-day SMA at $67.41 define more distant structural support zones that would be expected to attract buyers if tested, as long as price continues to trade decisively above them.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that earlier market surveys showed a strong chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this week, but Governor Ueda’s lack of clear hints at IMF/World Bank meetings shifted expectations to June. The BoJ remains cautious, focusing on core inflation and is widely expected to revise up inflation forecasts, which will shape June rate hike expectations.
Core inflation and June hike expectations
"Up until recently market surveys had indicated a strong chance of a BoJ rate hike this week. The lack of a direct hint about an imminent policy move from Governor Ueda when he spoke at the recent IMF/World Bank meetings dashed those expectations and the market has duly re-focused on June. There is clearly good reason for the Bank to remain cautious."
"Ueda has mentioned the hit to Japan’s terms of trade from more expensive energy imports and the related downside risks to the economy. That said, Ueda is fond of reminding the market about the very low level of real rates in Japan which implies that monetary conditions remain extremely accommodative despite the BoJ’s policy tightening programme."
"In view of the relatively firm levels of headline inflation in Japan, this has led to accusations from some parties that the BoJ is behind the curve. However, the BoJ is focussed on its own measures of core inflation, about which it has recently become more transparent. This week, the Bank is widely expected to revise up its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year."
"Its guidance on core inflation will be particularly important in influencing rate hike expectations for June."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD lacks upside momentum as stalled US-Iran talks keep market sentiment fragile.
- Markets await Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions amid Oil-driven inflation concerns.
- Technicals show mild bullish bias with support near the 1.1650-1.1710 zone.
The Euro (EUR) trims part of its earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as stalled US-Iran peace talks keep market sentiment fragile and limit downside in the Greenback.
At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1723 after hitting an intraday high of 1.1755. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.47 after touching an intraday low of 98.22.
The modest downside in the US Dollar comes as US-Iran headlines continue to drive price action. Earlier in the day, a report by Axios, citing a US official and two sources familiar with the matter, said Iran has presented a new proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while leaving nuclear negotiations for a later stage.
However, uncertainty remains, as Washington has yet to respond to the proposal. The plan is unlikely to be accepted by US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said that curbing Iran’s nuclear program is a key condition for any deal.
Attention is also turning to upcoming central bank meetings later this week, with both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid rising inflation risks linked to elevated Oil prices.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias as prices show signs of stabilization above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The clustering of these SMAs between roughly 1.1650 and 1.1710 suggests a supportive base beneath the market, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 points to constructive but not overstretched momentum.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has eased back toward the zero line, hinting that upside pressure is moderating rather than reversing at this stage. The Average Directional Index (ADX) near 24 suggests a modest trend strength.
On the downside, a break below this cluster of moving averages could expose the next support near 1.1600. On the upside, resistance is seen around the 1.1800 level.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- USD/JPY slips toward 159.30 as traders position ahead of the Bank of Japan policy announcement.
- Hawkish hold expectations lend support to the Yen despite ongoing USD safe-haven demand.
- Geopolitical tensions continue to limit downside, keeping the pair within elevated ranges.
The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 159.30 price zone as markets are increasingly positioning for a hawkish hold from the BoJ, with policymakers expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% while signaling a willingness to tighten further. This shift in expectations is helping the Yen recover slightly, even as broader policy divergence with the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to favor the US Dollar (USD).
The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to underpin safe-haven demand for the Greenback, with uncertainty showing little sign of easing as the war approaches its two-month mark. Elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks are keeping global markets cautious, supporting the USD on dips.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.29. The pair is hovering just above a dense support band between roughly 159.27 and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.21, but the pair remains capped by nearby resistance at 159.30 and the 20-period SMA at 159.47. Taken together, the price dynamic hints at a consolidative, slightly topside-capped tone. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 47 suggests momentum has eased back toward neutral, aligning with a pause rather than a clear directional break for now.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at 159.27, followed by the 159.20 horizontal level clustered around the 100-period SMA at 159.21, while a clearer bearish extension would only be suggested on a break under the lower support area near 159.10.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- DJIA futures ease on Monday as Iran ceasefire hopes fade and Oil prices climb back toward multi-month highs.
- West Texas Intermediate and Brent both jumped roughly 3% after Trump scrapped a planned envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, in what is likely Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair.
- A flood of Magnificent Seven earnings and Thursday's Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index round out a packed macro week.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures trade around 0.4% lower on Monday, slipping to near 49,100 after dipping briefly below 49,050 earlier in the session. The S&P 500 shed about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave back roughly 0.4%, with both indexes pulling back from record highs notched on Friday. Stochastic RSI on the 5-minute chart sits in mid-range near 34, suggesting the move down still has some room before momentum stretches.
Iran impasse keeps Oil bid
The session's tone was set over the weekend, when President Donald Trump canceled plans to send envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for ceasefire talks tied to Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed no Tehran-Washington meeting is currently scheduled, even as Axios reported Iran has floated a fresh proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for deferring nuclear talks. Oil traders ran with the supply uncertainty: WTI futures pushed above $97 a barrel and Brent topped $109, both up roughly 3% on the day. Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli described the headlines as "a modest negative" but maintained the conflict remains on a path toward de-escalation, a view that has helped equities hold up reasonably well despite the energy shock.
Fed in focus, hold all but priced in
Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision lands at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT. CME FedWatch puts the probability of a hold at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range at roughly 99%, the highest pre-meeting reading on record. Markets have effectively given up on near-term cuts, with Polymarket showing 40% odds of zero cuts across all of 2026 and just 28% pricing one. The story for traders is the language: any softening on the inflation outlook, particularly given the Oil-driven pressures, could revive front-end cut bets. This is also widely expected to be Powell's swan song before Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee, takes over.
Big tech earnings the real swing factor
Five of the Magnificent Seven report this week, and they will largely determine whether the rally that took the S&P 500 above 7,100 last week extends or stalls. Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) all release on Wednesday after the close, with Apple (AAPL) on Thursday. JPMorgan upped its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,600 from 7,200 on Friday, citing tech and AI as the structural underpinning. Strategist Fabio Bassi flagged a "follow the winners" stance over buying laggards, given parts of the energy-sensitive market are now structurally impaired by the Oil shock. The bar is high, with capex commentary likely to drive the post-earnings tape as much as the headline numbers.
Verizon, Domino's, Qualcomm headline single-stock action
Verizon (VZ) added roughly 3.5% after raising its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook on the back of stronger Q1 profit and revenue. Qualcomm (QCOM) surged about 10% on reports it is partnering with OpenAI and MediaTek (MDTKF) on a smartphone processor push. On the downside, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) tumbled around 10% after missing first-quarter Wall Street estimates, while Marvell Technology (MRVL) shed more than 5% after its newly acquired Celestial AI lost orders from chip-photonics firm POET Technologies (POET), which itself collapsed nearly 50%.
PCE, GDP, and ISM cap a heavy data slate
Beyond the Fed, Thursday brings the Q1 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print at 12:30 GMT, with consensus looking for 2.2% annualised growth versus the prior 0.5%. The same release window delivers March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, with core PCE expected at 3.2% YoY, up from 3% prior. A hot print could complicate the Fed's already delicate messaging on the inflation path. Friday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI is expected to nudge up to 53 from 52.7, with the prices paid component watched closely for further evidence of Oil-driven cost pressures bleeding into goods inflation. With Hormuz still effectively closed and earnings risk concentrated in two trading sessions, this week's range on DJIA futures could be wider than the chart's recent consolidation suggests.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart

Futures FAQs
The futures market is an exchange-based auction in which participants buy and sell contracts of an underlying asset at a predetermined future date and price. The set price is agreed upon today and is derived from the underlying asset. Futures contracts can be based on a wide range of assets, with commodities among the most popular, although currencies and indices are other common underlying assets. Futures prices depend on their underlying asset and act as a mechanism for firms, institutions, and large-position traders to manage risks through hedging.
Futures can be traded in different ways. The most common ways are via a regulated exchange or via Contracts For Difference (CFDs). In the former, liquidity is high and pricing is more transparent, with the broker serving only as an intermediary between you and the market. Still, it generally requires more capital. The largest futures exchanges are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME). As for CFDs, these require less capital and thus trading is more flexible, but at the cost of less transparency.
The E-mini S&P 500 index, Crude Oil (Brent, WTI), Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper, and soft commodities such as grains are among the most actively traded contracts. These offer strong liquidity and are closely followed by traders worldwide. Futures market volume consistently exceeds spot market volume, often significantly. This dominance is driven by leverage, hedging, and higher liquidity on exchanges.
Yes. Future gauges, particularly equity index futures such as those of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, are widely considered key gauges of market sentiment because they reflect investors’ expectations for the next session’s opening price. When equity futures drop, it is a sign of risk-aversion, signaling bearish market sentiment. On the contrary, rising equity futures suggest markets are risk on.
As a futures contract approaches its maturity date, the futures price converges upon the spot price, becoming almost identical at expiration. However, prices can diverge significantly before the contract ends. A market is in contango when future prices are higher than spot prices, while the mirror image is called backwardation (when current prices are higher than future prices). For commodities, the normal state of the market is contango because holding the asset over time incurs costs such as storage or insurance fees. When markets turn from contango to backwardation – or vice versa – it signals a shift in the trend: a change from contango to backwardation is taken as a bullish sign, while going from backwardation to contango is generally considered bearish.
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