Forex News
- Silver consolidates near the 50-day SMA after reclaiming $75.00.
- RSI flattens in bearish territory, suggesting sellers still hold momentum.
- Break below $73.09 exposes $70.87 and the 200-day SMA support.
Silver (XAG/USD) price retreats 0.16% on Friday, consolidating around the $75.00-$76.00 area and is virtually unchanged, near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75.70.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver looks set to extend its consolidation after breaking below the ascending channel’s support trendline and the 50-day SMA, but the white metal has reclaimed the $75.00 mark.
The RSI turned bearish in mid-May and continues to point lower, suggesting sellers are building momentum, but the index turned flat ahead of the weekend.
Above, the first resistance for XAG/USD is the 20-day SMA at $77.92, followed by $78.00. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at $81.15.
The break under the $75.00 psychological level further opened the door to additional downside.
If XAG/USD falls below the May 19 low of $73.09, the next support is the April 29 low at $70.87. A deeper decline would expose the 200-day SMA at $65.97, followed by the yearly low of $61.02.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- US-Iran deal hopes pressure Oil, easing global inflation risks.
- Chicago PMI jump signals renewed strength in US manufacturing.
- Fed hike bets fade, but sticky Core PCE remains.
Gold (XAU/USD) price advanced more than 1.50% on Friday amid news that Iran and the US are close to signing a deal aimed at extending the ceasefire for 60 days to allow negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,563, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,489.
XAU/USD jumps as ceasefire hopes ease inflation fears
Sources familiar with thenegotiations revealed that if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and the US Navy will lift its blockade, allowing the free passage of vessels through the strait. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that he would be in the Situation Room “to make a final determination” about the agreement. Reuters reported that a senior Iranian source said a political understanding on the war has been reached between the two sides, but it is not yet finalised.
The news pushed Oil prices lower, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost over 1.50%, with traders seemingly confident of a diplomatic ending, which would free petrol sitting near the Persian Gulf and ease a global energy shock.
Consequently, inflationary pressures would be tempered, relieving major central banks worldwide, which are considering tightening policy due to the jump in energy prices.
Data-wise, the US economic docket showed that the trade deficit narrowed and that business activity in the Midwest is back in expansionary territory. The Chicago Purchasers Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 62.7 in May from 49.2 the previous month, surpassing the 50.5 forecast and indicating that the manufacturing sector is gaining steam.
A day ago, economic data showed that the US economy is losing momentum, as first-quarter 2026 GDP dipped to 1.6% from the initial estimate of 2%. On the contrary, inflation continues to edge higher as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, rose by 3.3% YoY in April, up from 3.2% in March.
Money markets have trimmed hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve and now expect the US central bank to hold rates unchanged, with odds of a rate hike around 42%, according to Prime Terminal data.
Meanwhile, Fed officials crossed the wires, with San Francisco Fed Mary Daly saying that it is “important for the Fed to restore price stability, but not at the expense of harming the economy.” Her colleague, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, said inflationary pressures are weighing on the economy, making it tough for firms to plan for the future.
Earlier, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that disinflation has slowed and that she might change the policy stance if inflation driven by the war persists. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid indicated that the US central bank must think about ways to tighten monetary policy further, cautioning against viewing the Oil shock as temporary.
Next week, Gold traders will eye the release of the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs and the release of May’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold price clears $4,500, eyes on 20-day SMA
Gold price clearly reclaimed the $4,500 level and the downward resistance trendline, opening the door to challenge key resistance levels.
Buyers are gaining momentum, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bearish, is rising, a signal of further upside.
The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as the first level of resistance at $4,588, followed by $4,600. Above this lies the 50-day SMA at $4,630, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,798.
Downwards, if XAU/USD dives below $4,500, the first support would be $4,450, opening the door to the 200-day SMA at $4,399, followed by the intraday low at $4,366.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- GBP/USD recovers as improving risk sentiment surrounding US-Iran deal hopes pressures the Greenback.
- Trump says naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted as markets assess proposed US-Iran deal.
- BoE and Fed officials strike cautious tone on inflation and interest rates.
GBP/USD holds minor gains on Friday after rebounding from intraday lows, supported by improving risk sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3460 and is on course to end the week little changed.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that "a political understanding has been reached between Iran and the US, but it has not yet been finalized." This comes after reports that both sides reached a proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the current ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted. Trump also said Iran “must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb” and added that the Strait of Hormuz “must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions.”
The cautious optimism pushed the US Dollar (USD) lower, helping the British Pound (GBP) recover part of the losses recorded earlier this week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around the 98.80 mark after hitting a seven-week high of 99.54 on Thursday.
Oil prices also eased following the latest developments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $86 per barrel at the time of writing and heading for its first monthly decline in five months. However, crude prices still trade well above pre-war levels, keeping inflation risks alive.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier on Friday that “softness in the economy and uncertainty around the Iran war shock means tolerating temporarily above-target inflation is an appropriate way to approach the policy trade-off.” He added that the central bank has already “tightened policy considerably” after taking expected rate cuts off the table in response to the shock relative to what had been expected by markets.
Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jeff Schmid said that policymakers “may need to weigh how to make monetary policy more restrictive” and stressed that the Fed “must signal commitment to lowering inflation.”
Looking ahead, traders next week will focus on the global flash PMI data and the US Employment Situation Report, which includes Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and wage growth figures.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- USD/JPY trades near the 159.20 area as steady US inflation data reinforces expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer.
- US Core PCE held at 3.3% YoY in April, highlighting persistent inflation pressure and supporting the US Dollar.
- The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as Tokyo Core CPI slowed to 1.4% YoY in May.
The USD/JPY pair trades in a muted fashion toward the 159.20 region on Friday as the United States Dollar (USD) finds support following the latest inflation data, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains pressured amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook.
The latest Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held steady at 3.3% YoY in April, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains elevated and supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has been weighed down by recent domestic data. Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 1.4% YoY in May, remaining below the BoJ’s 2% target for a fourth consecutive month, while factory output unexpectedly rebounded in April.
Additional caution emerged after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned earlier this week that temporary energy shocks could become more persistent if they begin influencing wages and inflation expectations.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.24, holding in a neutral stance as it fluctuates between clustered support just below spot and layered resistance overhead. The pair trades above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.48, which underpins the broader uptrend, but remains capped by the 20-period SMA at 159.36, aligning with a horizontal barrier at the same level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 49, hinting at balanced momentum after the recent consolidation, with neither buyers nor sellers in firm control near current levels.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at 159.25, followed by the tighter confluence around 159.36 where the 20-period SMA and a horizontal level converge, forming a key cap that bulls would need to reclaim to revive upside traction. On the downside, initial support emerges at 159.20, ahead of 159.10, while the 100-period SMA near 158.48 offers a deeper floor; a sustained break below this moving average would likely expose the pair to a more pronounced corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- The Dow tagged a fresh record near 51,050 on Friday as Trump teased imminent sign-off on the Iran framework.
- The terms Trump laid out in his Truth Social post differ sharply from what Iranian state media say is in the MOU.
- Iran's state TV this morning reiterated it still controls Hormuz transit, contradicting Trump's "unrestricted" framing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) punched out a fresh intraday record near 51,050 with the bid traceable to a Truth Social post in which President Donald Trump declared he would be in the Situation Room making a "final determination" on the US-Iran agreement and laid out terms that sounded suspiciously like a finished deal. The catch, and it is becoming a daily ritual, is that the terms Trump described are not the terms Iran has agreed to. Markets have decided to trust the salesman over the contract.
Two deals, one headline
Read Trump's post and you get a clean, victorious framework: Iran "must agree" never to have a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz "must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions," any remaining mines will be "terminated," the US naval blockade "will now be lifted," and roughly 900 pounds of highly-enriched uranium will be "DESTROYED." Read the actual draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) as reported through US officials and you get something far softer: a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, a synchronized and gradual reopening of Hormuz over that window, the blockade rolled back in steps rather than scrapped in one go, and 60 days of negotiation about how to dispose of the uranium stockpile, not its immediate destruction. The former US ambassador to Israel even pointed out publicly that the deal Trump described in his post is not the deal on the table; the MOU simply opens the negotiating window.
Iranian state media is making the same point with less diplomacy. Outlets close to the Revolutionary Guard have called Trump's "fully reopened" framing inconsistent with the latest exchanged text, with one agency reporting the strait will not return to pre-war status under the agreement. This morning, Iran's state broadcaster doubled down: 24 ships had transited Hormuz over the prior 24 hours, but only with Iran's permission, only along "designated routes, at specified times, and under permits and conditions set by Iran." Vessels entering without authorization, the report warned, would face "a strong response." That is not "no tolls, unrestricted, both directions." That is Tehran restating the status quo while Washington's president describes a status quo that does not exist. Iran's Supreme Leader, meanwhile, has not given final approval, and Israeli officials reportedly do not believe he has signed off on the MOU either.
The actions still don't match the words
For a ceasefire about to be formalized, the shooting is awfully active. Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched a ballistic missile at Kuwait late Wednesday, intercepted by air defenses, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Thursday it had struck the US airbase from which the Bandar Abbas strikes originated. The Treasury, on the same day the MOU was supposedly being finalized, threatened sanctions on Oman for any role in a Hormuz tolling scheme. Diplomatically, this is the stretch of a negotiation where small things blow up large; markets are pricing it as if both sides are already at the lectern with pens out.
The data the bid keeps ignoring
The macro backdrop is not doing the bulls any favors either. Yesterday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) climbed to 3.3% YoY, a multi-year high, with headline at 3.8% YoY, and this morning the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) exploded to 62.7 against a 50.6 consensus, a four-year high and the largest monthly jump since 2020. Hot manufacturing on top of sticky inflation is not a Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting profile; it is closer to a Fed staying on hold into late 2026 with some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members still floating hikes. Equities are simultaneously pricing a peace dividend the negotiators have not signed and a dovish Fed that neither the data nor the policy guidance support. Both bets can be wrong at the same time.
Trading the breakout
The trend remains up, and the technical picture is clean. The overnight push took out the 51,000 record zone called out as resistance yesterday, printed close to 51,050, then pulled straight back to test the breakout from above. That is textbook bull behavior so long as 51,000 holds; lose it and the breakout becomes a failure pattern. The daily 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits near 49,250 and the 200 EMA close to 47,550, miles below, so the broader uptrend is in no danger. Momentum, though, is fading on the short timeframe: the 5-minute Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has rolled over from above 80 toward 60, signaling the rally is running on fumes after the overnight breakout.
The framework writes itself. First support is the 51,000 breakout retest; lose it and 50,500 (yesterday's defended level) becomes the magnet, with 50,000 the deeper psychological floor and the 50 EMA the trend line of last resort. Resistance above is open air toward the next round figure near 51,500. The catalyst risk is entirely political. A genuine Trump signature with Iranian ratification extends the breakout; Iranian state media surfacing a meaningful rejection, or a fresh missile incident, hands the tape back to the bears in a hurry. The calendar offers no cover, the rest of the day thins to a parade of Fed speakers (Schmid, Bowman, Paulson, Daly), none of them red-band. Lean with the trend, keep stops tight under 51,000, and treat every Truth Social notification as a potential market event, because right now that is exactly what they are.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Silver trades flat despite broad US Dollar weakness and improving sentiment around a potential US-Iran deal.
- Uncertainty over a proposed US-Iran agreement keeps traders from placing aggressive bets.
- XAG/USD consolidates near the 50-day SMA as momentum indicators continue to show mixed signals.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, failing to capitalize on improving market sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal, even as the US Dollar (USD) slides to a two-week low. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $75.60 and is on track to end the week virtually unchanged.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted. Traders are now awaiting final approval on a reported 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the current ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In reaction, the Greenback gave up earlier gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around the 98.80 mark after hitting a seven-week high of 99.54 on Thursday.
However, uncertainty around the deal remains high. Iran’s Fars News Agency rejected Trump’s latest comments on a possible deal and said no final decision has been made yet. The report also said the proposed agreement is still in the final stages of ratification in Iran.
The subdued price action in Silver contrasts with Gold, which climbed more than 1.5% on Friday. Traders are avoiding aggressive bets while waiting for more clarity on whether a deal can be reached soon.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, XAG/USD holds below the short-term trend marker as the near-term tone turns mildly bullish. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $75.85 is acting as immediate resistance just overhead, while the 100-day SMA at $81.32 marks a higher cap that reinforces the idea of a market consolidating underneath its medium-term slope.
Momentum studies are soft with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 47 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings below the zero line, which together hint at limited bullish pressure.
On the topside, a daily close above the 50-day SMA at $75.84 would be the first signal that buyers are attempting to regain control, exposing the 100-day SMA at $81.32 as the next notable barrier.
On the downside, the broader bullish structure remains intact while price holds well above the 200-day SMA at $66.94, which offers a key layer of underlying support and a potential zone where medium-term dip buyers could emerge.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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