Forex News
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said during the European trading session on Wednesday that the monetary policy path is still on the upside, citing upside inflation risks. On Tuesday, Nagel also warned that the probability of inflationary pressures remaining elevated is still high.
Additional Remarks
Inflation will stay on high level this year.
Inflation will stay above target in 2027.
June move wasn't an insurance hike.
Market Reaction
No immediate impact is seen on the Euro as comments from ECB's Nagel appear similar to what she said on Tuesday. As of writing, EUR/USD trades 0.2% lower to near 1.1400.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD price action offers few fresh clues after a dip to 1.1381 and rebound to 1.1436, with the pair expected to trade between 1.1385 and 1.1435 intraday. On a 1–3 week view, recent Euro weakness has stabilised, with trading likely confined to a 1.1335–1.1470 range. A break of 1.1390/1.1410 would expose 1.1210.
Euro-Dollar stabilises after recent weakness
"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that EUR “could edge higher,” we pointed out that “based on the prevailing momentum, any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1445.” The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected, as EUR dipped to 1.1381, rebounded to 1.1436 before closing marginally higher by 0.01% at 1.1421. The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, EUR could trade between 1.1385 and 1.1435."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from two days ago (29 Jun, spot at 1.1385) still stands. As highlighted, the recent “weakness in EUR has stabilised,” and EUR “is likely to trade in a range between 1.1335 and 1.1470.” "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Japanese Yen edges up against its peers amid fears of Japan’s intervention.
- Japan’s Katayama said that the government will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed.
- Investors await key US data and Fed Warsh’s speech.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades slightly higher against a majority of its currency peers, but edges lower to near 162.66 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Japanese currency ticks higher amid fears that the Japanese administration could intervene to support the domestic currency.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.36% | -0.00% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.03% | 0.18% | -0.22% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.12% | -0.04% | 0.08% | 0.28% | -0.11% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.33% | -0.08% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.10% | 0.21% | -0.20% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | -0.18% | -0.28% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.41% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.41% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | 0.04% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.20% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
On Tuesday, Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that her government “will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed”. However, Katayama declined to comment on specific FX levels.
Meanwhile, the absence of dovish comments in the scheduled press conference by newly appointed Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Ayano Sato on Tuesday has also supported the Japanese Yen. On Tuesday, Sato didn’t deliver any remarks regarding the interest rate outlook, but stated that “firms are more actively raising wages and prices so impact of weak the Japanese Yen on inflation may be bigger than in past”. Sato added, “Monetary policy should focus on inflation, while fiscal policy should focus on addressing impact on households, firms.”
In the European trade, the US Dollar trades higher due to rising United States (US) Treasury Yields. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.36.
In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June, and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech during the North American session.
Economic Indicator
Fed's Chair Warsh speech
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 01, 2026 13:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose interprets Czech National Bank (CNB) deputy governor Eva Zamrazilova’s remarks as signalling that June’s 25 bp hike was a one-off fine-tuning move rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. With the board feeling it has caught up and likely to pause, markets may still price a residual chance of another hike, providing marginal support for the Czech koruna.
Zamrazilova hints at cautious CNB pause
"CNB deputy governor Eva Zamrazilova’s latest remarks to the budget committee portrayed a picture that the 25bp rate hike of 18 June was conceived as ‘fine-tuning’, not a pivot into a new tightening cycle."
"This suggests that the board now feels it has “caught up” for the moment and can afford to wait for more information, rather than pre-committing to a sequence of hikes."
"Zamrazilova’s remarks strongly point towards a pause in August, with some debate potentially re-opening in September after new projections have been published."
"But, the CNB board appears to be making room for a more dovish assessment. Our own experience suggests that Zamrazilova’s messaging is unlikely to be isolated or uncoordinated. We would not be surprised if governor Ales Michl and many other board members expressed similar views, going forward."
"For markets, CNB’s still cautionary language means that the prospect of one more 25bp rate hike later in the year may linger on in the pricing (even if this never comes to fruition). And, this will be supportive for the koruna, at the margin."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow Jones futures fall as stalling US-Iran peace talks fuel investor caution.
- US envoys Kushner and Witkoff met Qatari mediators, but Iran refused direct talks.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 67% chance of a September rate hike.
The Dow Jones futures decline 0.34% to trade near 52,500, while S&P 500 futures gain 0.35%, trading near 7,520. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.48% to trade near 30,380 during European trading hours on Wednesday.
US stock futures are facing downward pressure as traders adopt a cautious stance, weighed down by stalling diplomatic efforts and mounting expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed). Hopes for a swift resolution to the US-Iran Doha peace talks dimmed significantly after US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar to meet with mediators. Tehran’s subsequent announcement that it will not meet directly with the US envoys has cast a cloud over the negotiations, keeping geopolitical risk premiums alive and well across global markets.
Adding to the uneasy sentiment are rising odds of a more aggressive monetary policy outlook from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, fed funds futures are now pricing in a nearly 67% chance of an interest rate hike by September.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the macro front on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra, alongside the release of the ADP private employment report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. These events will serve as a prelude to Thursday’s critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures.
This pre-market caution follows a strong regular US session on Tuesday, where Wall Street posted solid gains fueled by a surge in technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.26%, while the broader S&P 500 rose 0.79%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.52%. The rally was spearheaded by chipmakers and AI-related companies, with standout performances from SanDisk, which surged 10.9%, AMD advancing 7.7%, Marvell Technology climbing 7.3%, Intel gaining 6%, and Nvidia booking a 2.6% increase.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
ING’s commodities team reports that industrial metals, led by Copper, gained as markets monitored US-Iran talks and shipping risks, while Aluminium stayed under pressure. They highlight unwinding geopolitical premia, sharply reduced speculative net longs in Aluminium, Copper and Zinc, and a stronger Dollar on expectations of higher-for-longer US rates as key headwinds for the broader metals complex.
Copper supported as aluminium lags
"Industrial metals moved higher on Tuesday as investors monitored renewed US-Iran talks and the outlook for US monetary policy. Copper climbed back above $13,300/t, supported by easing concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz."
"Aluminium remained under pressure, however, as the fading geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind. The metal is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2008, reversing much of the earlier rally driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East."
"Positioning turned less supportive. LME aluminium speculative net longs fell for a third straight week to 68,814 lots in the week ending 26 June. This is the lowest since May 2021, as short positions rose sharply amid easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz."
"Copper net longs also declined for a fourth consecutive week to 48,735 lots, while zinc net longs fell for a third week to 28,222 lots, the lowest since October 2025."
"Metals markets are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve. Expectations that US rates could remain higher for longer are supporting the dollar, creating a headwind for commodities."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day on Wednesday.
- The Iran uncertainty and Fed hike bets support the USD, weighing on the commodity.
- Traders now look to Fed Chair Warsh's speech and the US data for a fresh impetus.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone for the third straight day and trades below the $4,000 psychological mark through the first half of the European session on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, the precious metal remains well within striking distance of its lowest level since November 2025, set on Tuesday. Moreover, a bullish US Dollar (USD), bolstered by uncertainty over US-Iran talks and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets, suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the downside.
US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar on Tuesday for talks about the implementation of an initial deal to end the war in Iran. Tehran, however, has denied any planned meeting with US envoys, clouding the prospects for a lasting peace agreement between the two countries and keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play. Furthermore, tensions over the critical Strait of Hormuz revive fears of inflation, which, along with a still resilient US labor market, endorse hawkish Fed expectations and act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.
The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed on Tuesday that job openings edged up to 7.594 million, or a two-year high in May. Adding to this, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June from 90.6 in May. Furthermore, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that it remains possible that she’ll advocate for higher interest rates if inflation pressures don’t moderate. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning over an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike move by the end of this year.
The outlook favors the USD bulls, which, in turn, validates the near-term negative outlook for the Gold price. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra. Apart from this, Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Manufacturing PMI – should provide some impetus to the Greenback and the XAU/USD pair later during the North American session.
The market focus will then shift to the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for Gold remains to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery is more likely to be sold into and remain capped.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold remains vulnerable near YTD low amid bearish technical setup
From a technical perspective, the precious metal holds well below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keeps a bearish near-term tone. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers just below the signal line in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward the 40 line. Momentum indicators together hint that upside attempts are likely to remain limited for now.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 100-period SMA at $4,161.80, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, the $3,943-$3,942 area, or the year-to-date low, could act as an initial pivot. A clear drop under this area would expose further weakness in the broader consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed's Chair Warsh speech
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 01, 2026 13:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that the US Dollar remains undervalued in real effective terms despite recent gains in USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CAD. He notes that Eurozone growth and inflation have softened while U.S. price dynamics strengthen, supporting further appreciation in the Dollar’s REER. Yu highlights risks from demand-driven inflation and warns that a stronger real Dollar could tighten global financial conditions.
Dollar valuations and real effective gains
"The resilient JOLTS report reinforces our view that this week’s labor market data should continue to support higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar. After the recent moves in USDJPY, EURUSD and USDCAD, valuation concerns are bound to resurface. We think those concerns are premature."
"By historical standards, the dollar is nowhere near the extremes seen during previous episodes of U.S. exceptionalism."
"As this divergence widens, the dollar’s REER has further room to appreciate."
"We continue to expect further gains in the dollar’s REER. The main risk is a sharp acceleration in demand-driven inflation – particularly wages – which would force a more aggressive Fed response and weigh on broader risk sentiment."
"On the other, a materially stronger USD REER tightens global financial conditions by forcing central banks to respond to imported inflation while raising the cost of already-scarce dollar funding."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- XAG/USD drifts below $58.00 and nears YTD lows in the area of 55.60.
- Precious metals struggle on Wednesday amid a sharp rise in US Treasury yields.
- US Job Openings beat expectations on Tuesday, adding to the case for Fed rate hikes.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading lower on Wednesday, with the US Dollar buoyed by strong US macroeconomic data and higher US Treasury yields. The XAG/USD pair has retreated below $58.00 after failing to consolidate above the $60.00 area on Tuesday, and is drawing closer to the year-to-date (YTD) lows, near $55.60 hit in June.
Precious metals are struggling on Wednesday, following a jump in US Treasury yields. The yield of the benchmark US 10-year note has risen nine basis points to levels near 4.7%, with no clear reason other than month- and quarter-end portfolio adjustments. Treasury yields have an inverse correlation with the precious metals.
In the macroeconomic domain, recent data has continued feeding the narrative of US economic exceptionalism. Job Openings rose unexpectedly in May to their highest levels in two years, confirming the recovery of the US labour market. With investors ramping up bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, all eyes are on the US central bank’s chairman, Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak at a central bankers’ meeting later on the day.
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction below $60.00
XAG/USD trades at $57.54, maintaining the broader bearish bias intact, although recent price action reveals a hesitant market. Momentum has improved, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) lifting toward the 40 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning modestly positive above zero, yet this merely hints at a corrective bounce rather than a trend shift.
Bears remain contained above Tuesday's low, in the $56.60 area so far, yet with the mentioned seven-month low at $55.71 at a short distance. A clear break of this level would bring the October and mid-November 2025 highs, at 54.86 and 54.39, into focus.
Upside attempts remain capped in the area between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $59.45 and the $60.00 psychological area. Further up, the support area around $63.50, which held bears on June 19 and 21, is coincident with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and makes for the next potential target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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