Forex News
- Gold tumbles 1.20% to $4,016 as Wall Street stocks retreat.
- US GDP grows 3.4%, while Core PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.1%.
- December Fed hike odds stand at 81% despite easing geopolitical tensions.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its losses on Thursday, down over 1.20% as the US equity markets fall and investors rotate into defensive stocks, while solid US economic data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could increase rates in December. XAU/USD trades at $4,016 after hitting a daily low of $4,005.
XAU/USD extends losses as strong US growth reinforces December Fed tightening expectations
The Greenback is extending its losses, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against six peers, down 0.12% at 102.03. This was sparked by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates unchanged and by the lack of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
During the press conference, Warsh announced changes to future FOMC meetings. In 2027, the central bank will hold eight meetings, but one will be dedicated to broad monetary policy strategy. In 2028, the FOMC monetary policy meetings would be just six.
Following the decision, money markets priced in an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Since then, they trimmed the odds to 81%, according tp Prime Terminal.
Gold prices rose to $4,035 before making a U-turn to current levels on the release of US data. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures in Q3 rose by 3.4% YoY, above forecasts of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Also, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 3.1% YoY as expected, signaling the Fed has work to do on its price stability mandate.
After economic growth and inflation data, the jobs market is faring well, with Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24 cooling from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of 199K.
Tensions in the Middle East eased after US Vice President JD Vance sought to revive peace negotiations by writing to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Even though Oil prices drifted lower, bullion has failed to recover amid expectations of higher interest rates.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 4.999%, after reaching a low of 4.949%. This, along with uncertainty about the outcome of the November 3 US midterm elections, keeps Gold prices steady.
Next week, the docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, Factory Orders, the JOLTS survey, Initial Jobless Claims and October’s Nonfarm Payrolls data.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Drops towards $4,000 as sellers eye YTD low beneath $3,970
Gold price shows sellers are dominating the action as XAU/USD falls below Wednesday's daily low of $4,025, poised to test last week’s low of $3,975 if Gold dives below $4,000. Momentum favors further downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges lower towards oversold territory.
On the other hand, buyers can reclaim some control if Gold clears the $4,100 mark. Once done, the next stop is $4,200, followed by the 100-day and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,217 and $4,269, respectively.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously left its three key interest rates unchanged, keeping the deposit rate at 2.50% as policymakers assessed the impact of renewed energy-price increases. President Christine Lagarde said the Governing Council had debated whether a hike was appropriate but concluded that a measured approach remained justified for now.
The ECB acknowledged that energy prices had risen beyond its baseline assumptions, creating upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Headline inflation is likely to remain well above target over the coming quarters, although the ECB expects it to decline later as energy inflation eases. Underlying inflation has remained broadly stable, wages have not shown a material second-round response and longer-term expectations remain close to 2%.
Lagarde said early pricing-chain data pointed to renewed upward pressure, while the ECB’s wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.5%-2.8% in the remaining months of 2026. The central bank is seeing more indirect effects from the energy shock, but no additional second-round effects beyond those already incorporated into its projections.
The growth outlook remains mixed. Incoming data suggest the economy expanded in the third quarter, with AI investment, government spending and a potential recovery in exports supporting activity. However, higher energy prices, rising financing costs, weaker confidence, fiscal uncertainty and tighter financial conditions are all weighing on demand. The risks to growth are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks remain tilted higher.
Overall, the decision was a cautious and slightly hawkish hold. The Governing Council has not pre-committed to a rate path, but the decision will be guided closely by underlying inflation and the transmission of monetary policy. Lagarde described the six-week period before the next meeting as information-rich, suggesting that December’s decision will depend heavily on whether energy pressures broaden or remain contained.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting and still expects modest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026 and 2027. AI-related export demand offers some support, but tourism and consumption are constrained by higher Oil prices and household debt. MUFG stays cautious on the Baht and keeps its USD/THB forecast unchanged.
Baht outlook weighed by low yields
"Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand left its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% for a fourth straight meeting yesterday. This is in line with our expectations. The central bank expects Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027."
"AI-driven demand could help support growth, with exports rising 24%yoy in September. However, the BoT noted that tourism and private consumption remain constrained by higher oil prices, elevated household debt and weak purchasing power."
"We remain cautious on the baht given the low yield, and we maintain our USD/THB forecast of 34.10 by end-2026, with risks tilted towards further THB weakness should the oil shock intensifies."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains broadly stable, with spot around 1.2815 and the S$NEER holding 1.52% above its estimated mid-point. Their short-term view is for intraday consolidation between 1.2800 and 1.2830, while over the next 1–3 weeks they expect a wider 1.2775–1.2835 range unless a close above 1.2835 opens 1.2855.
Dollar-Singapore pair stuck in ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 1.2815 yesterday, we indicated that “the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a higher range between 1.2805 and 1.2825.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. During the NY session, USD spiked to a high of 1.2837 and then quickly retreated to end the day marginally lower by 0.01% at 1.2813. There is no clear increase in upward momentum with the brief rise. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2800 and 1.2830"
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (27 Oct, spot at 1.2810), we highlighted that “while the advance on Monday has resulted in an increase in upward momentum, it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, USD is likely to trade between 1.2775 and 1.2835.” Yesterday, USD briefly rose to a high of 1.2837 before pulling back. Given that there is no sustained break above 1.2835, we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 1.2775 and 1.2835. Looking ahead, should USD close above 1.2835, it could lead to a rise to 1.2855."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) has come under renewed downside pressure on Thursday, receding to three-day lows as market participants assessed the ECB’s interest rate decision and kept monitoring developments from the Middle East crisis.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated for the second day in a row, briefly breaching below the key contention zone at 102.00. The Chicago PMI will wrap up the docket, seconded by the quarterly Employment Cost Index data.
The hawkish tone from the ECB and the renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar have lent extra legs to the EUR/USD’s recovery, with spot surpassing the 1.1170 level. Germany will publish its labour market report, along with flash Q3 GDP Growth Rate figures and the preliminary Inflation Rate. In addition, advanced Q3 GDP Growth Rate data in the broader euro area will also be released.
GBP/USD has built on Wednesday’s gains and advanced to three-day tops, refocusing on the key 1.3400 hurdle. The Nationwide Housing Prices are due, followed by the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP).
USD/JPY has managed to reverse the previous day’s retracement and revisit the area above the 158.00 yardstick. The BoJ is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged, while the Unemployment Rate, the Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, flash Industrial Production data, Housing Starts and Construction Orders will also fulfil the domestic calendar.
AUD/USD has lost momentum soon after hitting five-week highs near 0.7070, eventually ending the day with modest losses in the low 0.7000s. The quarterly Producer Prices will be published alongside Housing Credit/Private Sector Credit figures.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have traded slightly lower, regaining some ground after a brief drop below the $100.00 mark per barrel amid renewed hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict.
Gold (XAU/USD) has lost traction, reversing three daily advances in a row and refocusing on the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. Persistently elevated US inflation continues to underpin the Fed’s tighter-for-longer stance, keeping the yellow metal under pressure.
- USD/JPY trades little changed as traders await the BoJ’s monetary policy announcement.
- The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady on Friday, with traders looking for clues on a December hike.
- US inflation and GDP data keep hawkish Fed expectations intact, although the Dollar struggles to gain ground.
USD/JPY trades little changed on Thursday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms most of its major peers, although a softer US Dollar (USD) keeps the pair from gaining much ground. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 157.90.
The BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.25% following a 25-basis-point (bps) hike in September and a total of 50 bps of tightening so far this year. A pause would give policymakers more time to assess how previous increases are affecting borrowing conditions and economic activity.
With a hold largely expected on Friday, attention will centre on the bank’s updated growth and inflation forecasts and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Traders anticipate another rate hike in December as higher energy costs and rising import costs from a weak Yen add to inflation pressure.
The latest inflation data showed that prices excluding fresh food rose 2.1% YoY, up from 1.7% and above the BoJ’s 2% target. Inflation excluding both fresh food and energy increased to 2.4% from 1.9%. Before the policy announcement, Japan's October Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) and September unemployment figures will provide another look at inflation and labour market conditions.
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that, for FX markets, the key issue at upcoming BoJ meetings is less the immediate decision and more the guidance for year-end, noting that “for FX markets, the more important question will therefore be what the BoJ signals about December.” They point out that “markets currently price in an around 80% probability of a rate hike by then,” which is “in line with our own expectation that the BoJ will raise the policy rate to 1.5%.” In their view, “recent BoJ communication, alongside the economic backdrop, increasingly suggests that the next step towards policy normalization is approaching.”
In the United States (US), data released on Thursday showed annual headline and core PCE inflation rising, while third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations. Personal income and spending fell short of forecasts, although lower-than-expected jobless claims pointed to continued low layoffs.
The releases keep a December Federal Reserve (Fed) hike firmly in play after policymakers held rates steady on Wednesday. Even so, the US Dollar struggles to sustain its initial post-data gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, eases toward 102.00 after reaching an intraday high of 102.33.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.31% | 0.02% | -0.14% | 0.28% | -0.11% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.18% | 0.18% | -0.02% | 0.42% | 0.01% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.31% | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.16% | 0.60% | 0.20% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.16% | 0.27% | -0.14% | -0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.16% | 0.43% | 0.03% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.28% | -0.42% | -0.60% | -0.27% | -0.43% | -0.39% | -0.54% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.39% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.54% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong remain mildly cautious on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) as MSCI reclassification uncertainty, foreign equity selling, elevated oil prices and a firm US Dollar weigh on the currency. Investors seek credible enforcement of market reforms, while a sustained recovery hinges on stabilising portfolio flows. USD/IDR retains an upside bias, although overbought RSI readings warrant monitoring for a technical turnaround.
MSCI and Oil risks cap Rupiah
"IDR remained under pressure amid lingering uncertainty over MSCI’s proposed reclassification of Indonesia to standalone status. The JCI fell sharply earlier this week, accompanied by foreign equity selling, before recovering modestly yesterday. The IDX’s latest measures to address concerns over market transparency and trading practices have yet to restore investor confidence. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continue to weigh on IDR, adding to an already challenging external backdrop."
"We retain a mildly cautious bias on IDR. While the authorities have taken steps to address MSCI’s concerns, investors will likely want to see credible enforcement before reassessing their exposure."
"More importantly, we would watch whether continued foreign equity selling spills over more materially onto government bonds, particularly as elevated oil prices and a firm USD leave IDR vulnerable to renewed pressure. For now, some easing in oil prices and a pullback in USD could offer respite, but a more convincing IDR recovery would require signs that portfolio flows are stabilising."
"USD/IDR last closed at 18183. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose to overbought conditions. While upside bias remains intact, we continue to look for signs of any technical turnaround as the pair approaches its prior high. Resistance at 18190 (2026 high), 18450 levels. Support at 18000, 17972 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan analyzes the Bank of Canada’s 25bps rate hike to 2.5%, which came despite subdued core inflation and soft growth. The bank now expects another 25bps increase in December, taking the year-end rate to 2.75%, and sees the BoC pausing in 2027, with scope for further hikes if growth momentum is confirmed.
BoC front-loads insurance tightening
"The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the policy rate by 25bps to 2.5% at its 28 October meeting; we had expected a pause. While consensus leaned towards a hike, many had considered such a move unnecessary amid subdued core inflation and soft growth. Nevertheless, the BoC showed a strong preference to hike pre-emptively in response to inflation risks."
"Forward guidance signalled potential for additional hikes but was non-committal. We think this signals that the BoC believes further tightening is needed to offset upside inflation risks, but may be reluctant to lock it in amid high uncertainty around the energy shock. We expect another 25bps hike in December, taking the year-end rate to 2.75% (2.25% prior), the midpoint of BoC’s neutral estimate."
"The BoC could opt for a hold in December if data shows continued labour-market deterioration in October and November. We expect core inflation prints to continue to run soft ahead of the December meeting, but that is unlikely to change BoC’s tightening bias. Absent a clear resolution of the Middle East conflict, the BoC will likely view high energy prices as adding to inflation risks and contained core inflation as temporary."
"We expect it to stay put in 2027 after delivering a total of 50bps hikes in 2026. The BoC might be open to further rate hikes later in 2027 if data confirms solid growth momentum. The central bank’s new model puts a heavy emphasis on energy cost transmission while downplaying the inflation impact of demand compression."
"We expect soft demand to keep broader inflationary pressure relatively contained, limiting the need to hike beyond the initial insurance hikes. Market pricing of over 85bps of hikes for the rest of the cycle remains excessive, in our view, especially given pre-emptive moves likely aimed at avoiding a steep hiking cycle."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver tumbles to fresh yearly lows as hawkish Fed expectations dominate.
- XAG/USD trades below daily SMAs, keeping the bearish outlook intact.
- RSI signals oversold conditions, while MACD and ADX suggest sellers remain in control.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls around 3% on Thursday, sliding to fresh year-to-date lows as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers on the sidelines. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $52.32, its lowest level since November 2025.
The decline comes despite a softer US Dollar (USD), suggesting that price action remains driven by interest rate expectations. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Silver.
The latest US economic data released on Thursday keep bets on a December rate hike firmly in place. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, closely watched by the Fed, rose 0.3% MoM in September. Annual core inflation increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Traders see around an 80% chance of a December rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This comes after the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the conclusion of its October meeting on Wednesday. However, the main takeaway was that inflation remained elevated and the central bank remained committed to ensuring price stability.
Technical Analysis
On the technical front, sellers remain in control as XAG/USD trades well below its key daily moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 28, signalling oversold conditions that could allow a short-term bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 37 suggests the downtrend remains strong.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level near $55.00, followed by the former congestion zone around $60.00 before the 100-day SMA at $61.73 and the 50-day SMA at $62.11 come into play as a broader resistance band, with the 200-day SMA further up at $70.63 marking a major barrier to any sustained recovery.
On the downside, an extension of the decline would bring the $50.00 psychological level into focus as major support. A decisive break below it could open the door to deeper losses.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.24% | -0.11% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.19% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.40% | 0.03% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | 0.19% | 0.36% | 0.16% | 0.58% | 0.20% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.36% | -0.19% | 0.22% | -0.16% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.02% | -0.16% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.06% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.40% | -0.58% | -0.22% | -0.41% | -0.35% | -0.51% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.16% | -0.06% | 0.35% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.29% | 0.09% | 0.51% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but firmer against other commodity currencies, supported by a modestly hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC) hike. Governor Macklem’s tone helped narrow yield spreads and pull their fair value for USD/CAD just under 1.3980. Technically, the pair’s break below 1.40 points to limited support until the 1.3900/1.3920 zone.
BoC hawkishness supports Canadian Dollar
"Comments from BoC Gov. Macklem reported by Bloomberg late Wednesday offered a relatively hawkish read, relative to a statement and press conference that had been somewhat more restrained."
"In any event, the BoC’s hike on Wednesday was delivered with a modestly hawkish message that ultimately delivered a slight boost in rate expectations across the curve."
"The BoC’s hawkishness has provided for a continued narrowing in yield spreads, dragging our FV to 1.3979."
"We see limited support ahead of the 1.3900/1.3920 area."
"Bearish – the renewed decline in USD/CAD has delivered a fresh break below 1.40 and opened up the possibility of a push below Friday’s local low in the mid/upper-1.39s. The RSI is clearly bearish and back below 40. We see limited support ahead of the 1.3900/1.3920 area."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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