Forex News
- Gold gains as a softer US Dollar and fading oil prices support prices.
- Mixed Iran headlines keep investors cautious and underpin haven demand.
- Fed speakers and rising inflation expectations remain key market drivers.
Gold price (XAU/USD) advances some 0.63% on Tuesday as Oil prices retreat from daily highs amid speculation of broken talks between the US and Iran, which Iranian media denied. However, fears are mounting as US President Donald Trump's deadline to reopen the Hormuz Strait approaches , with investors awaiting a possible agreement before the US resumes attacks on Iran’s installations.
Bullion holds firm as mixed Iran headlines keep haven demand alive
XAU/USD trades at $4,678 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,607, underpinned by a weaker US Dollar, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against six currencies, falls 0.17% to 99.82.
Geopolitical news headlines show mixed signals on the Middle East conflict, creating confusion amongst investors, which so far keeps the yellow metal bid. Recent headlines reporting that the US-Iran diplomacy was cut off were denied by the Tehran Times, though the Wall Street Journal reports that both sides are sticking to a hard line, showing no signs of backing down.
So far, attacks by the US, Israel and Iran intensified ahead of Trump’s deadline, which expires at 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Although progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations, reaching a ceasefire seems unlikely, Axios reported, citing a US official, an Israeli official, and others. CNN reported that the Israeli military is on standby, ready to launch strikes, ahead of US President Trump's deadline on Iran to reopen the strait, according to Israeli sources.
Fed’s Goolsbee policy not to please the US President
Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers crossed the wires, led by regional Fed Bank Presidents Austan Goolsbee and John Williams. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee denied that the Fed Act is meant to make the stock market or the US President happy, warning that taking away the central bank’s independence would push inflation higher.
John Williams from the New York Fed warned that the energy shock spurred by the Middle East conflict will likely lift headline inflation, projecting it to stay elevated into mid-year and reach around 2.75% annually. He added that policy remains at an appropriate level.
US data showed that Durable Goods Orders contracted by 1.4% in February, marking a third consecutive decline and missing expectations of a 0.5% contraction. However, core goods surprised to the upside, increasing 0.8% MoM.
The New York Fed’s consumer survey showed inflation expectations drifted higher in March, with the one-year outlook rising to 3.4%, while medium-term expectations ticked up slightly and long-term expectations remained anchored.
Consequently, traders are not expecting further Fed easing in 2026. Money markets project interest rates to remain unchanged throughout the full year, according to Prime Market data.
Fed interest rate probabilities
Ahead this week, traders are eyeing speeches by Fed officials, the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, growth data, Initial Jobless Claims and inflation figures.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold recoils from $4,700, sellers target 100-day SMA
The technical picture shows that Gold prices remain sideways, with key support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,644 and immediate resistance at the 20-day SMA at $4,731. Momentum indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are in control, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
For further upside, XAU/USD must clear $4,700, followed by the 20-day SMA at $4,731. Once surpassed, a move towards the 50-day SMA at $4,937 is on the cards. Conversely, if Gold remains below $4,700, the first support would be $4,600, followed by the April 2 daily low at $4,553, ahead of $4,500.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Vietnam’s Q1 GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but below the government’s 10% 2026 target. Exports and imports surged, reflecting robust external demand and precautionary inventory building. Inflation accelerated to 4.7%, above the State Bank of Vietnam’s target, while USD/VND stayed stable as the central bank maintained a steady fixing to limit volatility.
Robust activity and rising inflation
"Q1 GDP rose more than expected by 7.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6%) vs 8.5% in Q4 2025."
"On monthly data, March exports surged 20.1% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 16.5%) vs 5.7% in February despite rising global headwinds due to the conflict in the Middle East."
"On the inflation front, March CPI rose more than expected by 4.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.0%) vs 3.4% in February, slightly above the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) target of 4.5%."
"USD/VND was flat yesterday at around 26,337."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, April 8:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 99.80, not far from last week’s 100 peak, broadly supported as markets remain locked on the Iran conflict and, in particular, on United States (US) President Donald Trump’s deadline for 8:00pm EST tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran rejected a temporary ceasefire and has closed all communication lines with the US, setting conditions for any lasting peace deal, while Oil markets keep pricing in a prolonged disruption risk.
At the same time, US February core capital goods orders beat expectations at 0.6%, even as headline durable goods orders fell 1.4%, giving the Greenback an additional layer of support ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and PCE inflation data.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.34% | -0.23% | 0.05% | -0.08% | -0.53% | 0.00% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.34% | 0.10% | 0.35% | 0.23% | -0.21% | 0.33% | 0.41% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.25% | 0.14% | -0.29% | 0.24% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.35% | -0.25% | -0.11% | -0.56% | -0.04% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.23% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.45% | 0.06% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.53% | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.56% | 0.45% | 0.53% | 0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.00% | -0.33% | -0.24% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.53% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.41% | -0.32% | -0.04% | -0.15% | -0.61% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD spiked to near the 1.1580 area, staying resilient even as the US Dollar (USD) remained firm. The Euro found support from rising expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to tighten policy if the Oil shock feeds into broader inflation, with ECB officials signaling readiness to act if price pressure becomes persistent.
GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3270, edging slightly higher on the day, but the British Pound still traded close to a more than four-month low versus the Greenback as investors worried about the United Kingdom’s (UK) exposure to imported energy and the country’s fragile fiscal backdrop.
USD/JPY stayed muted near 159.80, keeping the Yen close to levels that previously triggered Japanese intervention. Japan’s Finance Minister said Tokyo would remain in close contact with G7 peers as Oil-driven market volatility persists, while the 10-year JGB yield climbed to a 27-year high of 2.43%, underscoring the strain from surging energy costs and fiscal support measures.
AUD/USD traded around 0.6960, surging even as higher energy prices kept risk-sensitive currencies subdued. The surge came with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tilt from recent weeks still in the background.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil pushed higher toward the $117 per barrel earlier on Tuesday, but folded to $113.40 per barrel by the late afternoon. The broader Oil complex stayed extremely tight as the Hormuz crisis worsened, with some physical crude grades surging toward $150 per barrel and around 12 million barrels per day of supply effectively disrupted.
Gold was on a slight bullish bias near $4,680, showing a cautious tone rather than a fresh safe-haven surge. Bullion drew support from geopolitical uncertainty, but upside remained limited by the firm USD and concerns that higher oil prices could keep interest rates elevated for longer. China’s central bank extending its Gold-buying streak to 17 months, helping to underpin the metal.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, April 8
- NZ RBNZ Press Conference
- EU Retail Sales
- EU Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
- US FOMC Minutes
Thursday, April 9
- Germany Trade Balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income
- US Personal Spending
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statemen
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
ING’s Maurice van Sante argues that higher Oil and Gas prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, are set to raise costs in the European building materials sector. He notes that producers’ exposure to Oil and Gas is similar to 2022, so elevated energy prices are likely to be passed through, pressuring margins and construction activity.
Energy-driven cost pressures in materials
"Many sectors will be impacted by the current surge in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. As noted previously, producers of building materials such as cement, concrete and bricks rely heavily on energy. If energy prices remain high, these manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to construction companies, which will put pressure on profit margins and lead to higher overall building costs."
"In the period 2010-2020, the amount of oil as a heating source has decreased substantially in the sector, although it hasn’t witnessed a further decrease in the last five years. Between 2020-2025, companies mainly phased out the use of coal, while the relative amount of used gas has remained more or less the same for the last 15 years. Building material companies have become more sustainable due to the reduced reliance on coal, but the dependency on oil and gas hasn’t really decreased."
"The recent uptick in building permits offers a glimmer of hope for stronger demand, but a sustained recovery will depend on greater stability in energy markets and continued innovation in sustainable production methods. Without this, rising production costs risk pushing sales prices higher which, in turn, would weigh on demand. A firm commitment to greener, less energy‑intensive production processes will therefore be essential for long‑term resilience."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD firms as the US Dollar softens ahead of Trump’s Iran deadline.
- Technically, AUD/USD is currently testing the 0.6950 level, a former support that now acts as immediate resistance.
- Momentum indicators improve as RSI recovers toward 50, and MACD signals fading bearish pressure.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the Greenback softens amid fragile market sentiment ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.6955, up nearly 0.54% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.80 after failing to sustain gains above the 100 mark.
Beyond USD weakness, the Australian Dollar is also supported by strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY), after the People's Bank of China set the daily reference rate at 6.8854, its strongest level in nearly three years. The AUD is widely seen as a proxy for China’s economy, given Australia’s close trade ties with the country.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows AUD/USD attempting a modest recovery after finding support above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6842. The pair is currently testing the 0.6950 level, which previously served as a key support and is now acting as immediate resistance.
A break above this area could open the door toward the 0.7000 psychological level, which closely aligns with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7024.
On the downside, immediate support lies near the 100-day SMA. A break below this level on a daily closing basis could open the door toward the 0.6700 psychological level, which marks a previous breakout zone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the 50 level, indicating stabilizing momentum after a prior loss of upside pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains slightly below the signal line but is edging higher toward the zero line, suggesting bearish momentum is fading. The MACD histogram is also narrowing, reinforcing the view that downside pressure is easing.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, said that inflation will come roaring back, citing that with Oil prices rising, this is a stagflationary shock to the market in a prepared speech in Detroit on Tuesday.
Key takeaways:
Nothing in Federal Reserve Act says make the stock market happy, or make the president happy.
If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that's a bad idea.
Inflation would come roaring back.
Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock.
Now in an uncomfortable situation, no obvious cookbook for Fed.
My immediate concern is stagflationary shock of oil prices before the tariff-price shock has gone away.
Job market stable but not great.
Cautious, nervous about economy.
The longer you go with high inflation, the more it gets ingrained into the economy.
Hopefully impact from oil will prove temporary.
$5/gallon gas will affect the supply chain.
There's anxiety about inflation coming back.
Possibility of stagflationary recession from oil price rise would be the worst outcome.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.23% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.51% | 0.01% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.23% | -0.19% | 0.33% | 0.41% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.25% | 0.15% | -0.26% | 0.25% | 0.33% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.33% | -0.25% | -0.09% | -0.54% | -0.03% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.15% | 0.09% | -0.45% | 0.06% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.51% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.54% | 0.45% | 0.51% | 0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.33% | -0.25% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.51% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.41% | -0.33% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.61% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that Asian FX, including South Korean Won (KRW), has traded slightly firmer on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, but stresses that geopolitics remains the key driver. They argue that any further relief rally in Asian FX will depend on concrete details around a potential deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Until such clarity emerges, Wong expects most Asian FX to trade sideways.
Relief rally hinges on Hormuz clarity
"Geopolitics remains the dominant driver, with focus on hopes of de-escalation while President Trump’s threat of escalation acting as a counter. It remains to be seen if it proves to be another ‘pause in follow-through’ moment, but most Asian FX, including KRW traded a touch firmer overnight."
"What markets probably need is clarity on the timeline of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and if Iran secures guarantees. If we do get these details in order, then there is a good chance high-beta currencies, including KRW should take the lead in recovery."
"Further relief rally is not ruled out if de-escalation wins the day. But the extent of a relief rally will hinge on details of the deal – whether it is a temporary ceasefire or not."
"But before we get any details, most Asian FX should trade sideways in the interim."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI trades in a choppy range as geopolitical risks keep markets on edge.
- Trump issues fresh warning ahead of deadline, raising escalation concerns.
- EIA flags supply disruptions and slower demand growth, with WTI seen averaging $87 in 2026.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades in a volatile and choppy range on Tuesday as traders remain cautious ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal.
At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $104.30, with a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices amid concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump issued a fresh warning in a Truth Social post, saying, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
This follows an earlier threat from Trump that the United States could target Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached or if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).
Meanwhile, Axios reported on Tuesday that progress has been made over the past 24 hours in negotiations between the US and Iran. However, according to US and Israeli officials as well as other sources familiar with the talks, reaching a ceasefire deal before Trump’s deadline still appears unlikely.
Overall, the uncertain outcome of the US-Iran standoff is likely to keep Oil prices supported in the near term unless tensions de-escalate meaningfully.
According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global Oil markets are already experiencing significant supply tightness due to the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global Oil supply.
The report estimates that production shut-ins reached around 7.5 million barrels per day in March and could rise to over 9 million barrels per day in April.
The EIA also projects that WTI crude oil prices will average around $87 per barrel in 2026 and expects global Oil demand growth to slow, forecasting an increase of around 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, down from 1.2 million b/d in the previous month’s report.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that Turkey’s brief disinflation respite is already obsolete as higher Oil prices and external shocks dominate. Headline CPI slowed in March, but core dynamics remain strong and credibility concerns persist. Rising energy costs, a widening trade deficit, capital outflows and heavy intervention leave the Turkish Lira increasingly vulnerable to a disorderly adjustment if the regional war does not de-escalate soon.
Disinflation story eclipsed by energy shock
"Turkey’s March CPI print offered a brief moment of relief last Friday, with headline inflation slowing to 30.9%y/y and 1.9%m/m – below most estimates. Yet this downside surprise already looks outdated."
"Last and most crucial point: the renewed rise in energy cost points to a reversal ahead – hence, the backward-looking March data are beside the point."
"The shift in outlook because of the oil price is not hypothetical: policymakers have been explicit that the oil price shock will feed through materially, with FinMin Mehmet Simsek estimating a 3.6-4.4pps impact on inflation if oil were to stabilise at around US$85/bbl (we think that it will)."
"The current account situation was worsening since late last year as interest rates were being cut – now the outlook has turned firmly negative."
"We think, however, that lira management is increasingly fragile (resulting in noticeable drawdown of resources). If the war were not to de-escalate soon, the probability of a disorderly adjustment would rise materially."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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