Forex News
- AUD/JPY edges lower after hitting a all-time high of 109.56 on Tuesday.
- The AUD rose after the RBA raised the cash rate 25 bps to 3.85%, as expected.
- The JPY gains support amid political uncertainty ahead of February 8 election.
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive sessions, trading around 109.40 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross gains ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained over 1% against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decided to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% from 3.6%, as expected.
The AUD/JPY cross remains stronger after the cautious remarks from the RBA Governor, Michele Bullock, during the post-meeting press conference. Bullock said inflation pressures remain too strong, warning it will take longer to return to target and is no longer acceptable. She stressed the board will stay data-dependent and avoid forward guidance.
The AUD/JPY cross could extend its gains as the Japanese Yen finds support amid political uncertainty ahead of the February 8 snap election, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party expected to gain seats and pursue expansionary fiscal policies.
Over the weekend, Takaichi described a weak Yen as an opportunity for export-driven industries, signaling tolerance for a softer currency. She later clarified the comments were meant to stress economic resilience to exchange-rate swings, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the remarks reflected standard economic principles on the effects of a weaker currency.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
The two-year swap rate gap widened in favor of the Dollar, impacting the short-term fair value estimate for EUR/USD. Technical supports are identified near the 50-day moving average. Political stability in France is noted, but its impact on FX remains marginal, notes Francesco Pesole from ING.
Technical supports identified for EUR/USD
"The two-year swap rate gap rewidened in favour of the dollar yesterday, bringing our estimate for short-term EUR/USD fair value to 1.174. That is close to the 1.1724 50-day moving average, with the 100 and 200-day MA a bit lower at 1.1678 and 1.1615: those could be the main technical supports should the drop extend."
"Incidentally, the more EUR/USD retraces, the less likely we'll get any comments on the exchange rate at Thursday’s ECB policy meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US Dollar Index retreated to 97.40 on Tuesday after rejection near 97.75.
- A brighter market sentiment is boosting demand for riskier assets on Tuesday.
- The Greenback maintains its bullish trend from 95.50 lows in play.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trimming gains on Tuesday, trading at 97.45 at the time of writing after failing to extend gains past a previous support level, now turned resistance, at the 97.75 area.
The Greenback bottomed at four-year lows near 95.50 last week, but has been paring losses supported by investors’ relief after US President Donald Trump picked Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair from May.
Earlier this week, the trade deal between India and the US and news about upcoming nuclear talks with Iran have improved market sentiment, shifting investors’ focus towards riskier assets. Furthermore, a partial US government shutdown might be putting additional pressure on the USD.
Technical Analysis: The immediate bias remains bullish
In the 4-hour chart, Dollar Index Spot trades near 97.40, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, suggesting a steady bullish momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60, reinforcing an improving tone.
Bulls, however, will have to breach resistance at the mentioned 97.75 area (December 24 low) to confirm a deeper recovery, and aim. to the January 20 and 22 lows, at the 98.25 area.
On the downside, immediate support is at Monday's low near 97.00. A bearish reaction below that level would put the current recovery in question and increase pressure towards the January 30 low, at the 96.35 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.37% | 0.49% | -1.07% | -0.59% | 0.71% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.27% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -1.37% | -0.89% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.27% | 0.26% | 0.45% | -1.10% | -0.63% | 0.67% | |
| JPY | -0.37% | -0.11% | -0.26% | 0.12% | -1.46% | -0.94% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.49% | -0.18% | -0.45% | -0.12% | -1.52% | -1.07% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 1.07% | 1.37% | 1.10% | 1.46% | 1.52% | 0.49% | 1.80% | |
| NZD | 0.59% | 0.89% | 0.63% | 0.94% | 1.07% | -0.49% | 1.31% | |
| CHF | -0.71% | -0.40% | -0.67% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -1.80% | -1.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Japanese Yen has come under renewed pressure, with USD/JPY trading at 155.50. The lack of concrete follow-up to verbal interventions and political statements regarding a weak currency have contributed to this weakness. A potential LDP win in upcoming elections may further impact the JPY negatively, notes Volkmar Baur from Commerzbank.
Political factors affecting the Yen
"On the one hand, this is likely due to the fact that the verbal intervention has not been followed up by any concrete steps so far and that at least the US side has recently asserted that it would not intervene in the market."
"A big win for the LDP this coming weekend is therefore likely to weigh on the JPY again, especially in light of the Prime Minister's recent statements."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow Jones futures climb as strong earnings from major technology firms boost market sentiment.
- Palantir gained about 6% on an earnings beat, while Teradyne surged 23% on strong quarterly guidance in extended trading.
- Market sentiment may turn cautious as strong US factory data reinforced economic resilience and hawkish Fed expectations.
Dow Jones futures rose 0.12% to around 49,580 in the European session on Tuesday, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.27% and 0.57% to near 7,020 and 26,000, respectively. Investors now look ahead to a busy earnings slate later in the day, including results from AMD, Pfizer, and Chipotle.
US index futures were supported by strong earnings from major technology firms, boosting market sentiment. In extended trading, Palantir Technologies climbed about 7% after topping revenue and earnings estimates, while Teradyne surged 19% after delivering upbeat guidance for the current quarter.
In Monday’s US session, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 gained 0.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.56%. Tech and AI infrastructure stocks led, with Apple up 4.1%, Micron 5.5%, and Sandisk surging 15.4%. On the contrary, Nvidia slipped 2.9% amid uncertainty over its stalled $100 billion OpenAI investment. NXP Semiconductor fell 5% after issuing weak Q1 gross margin guidance.
Market sentiment may turn cautious as an unexpected rebound in US factory activity highlighted economic resilience and pushed Federal Reserve policy expectations in a more hawkish direction. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, beating market expectations of 48.5.
US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair signaled a more disciplined, cautious approach to monetary easing. Moreover, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate cuts are not warranted at this stage, characterizing the current 3.50%–3.75% policy rate range as broadly neutral.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Gold attracts strong buyers on Tuesday as the USD pauses the recent recovery from a four-year low.
- The market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair fades amid rate cut bets.
- Easing geopolitical and trade tensions might keep a lid on any further gains for the XAU/USD pair.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies back closer to the $4,950 level during the first half of the European session on Tuesday amid some follow-through short-covering after two days of heavy liquidation. As investors digest Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, bets that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs further in 2025 keep a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) recovery from a four-year low. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, signs of de-escalation of US-Iran tensions over the latter's nuclear program, along with the US-India trade deal, remain supportive of a positive risk tone, which could cap the safe-haven Gold. Apart from this, the CME Group's decision to raise margin requirements on precious metals futures might turn out to be another bearish development for the precious metal. This warrants caution before confirming that the recent sharp corrective slide from the $5,600 mark, or the all-time peak set last week, has run its course.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold scales higher as Fed rate cut bets cap the recent USD recovery
- US President Donald Trump on Friday nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair in May, pending Senate approval. Warsh’s background as a hawk suggests that he would remain vigilant if inflation expectations begin to rise.
- Adding to this, the CME Group said over the weekend that it would increase margins on precious metals futures starting from the close of markets on Monday. This prompted liquidation for the second straight day and dragged the Gold to a four-week low on Monday.
- On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday that the US factory activity grew for the first time in a year. In fact, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January, marking a significant recovery from 47.9 in the previous month.
- Meanwhile, Trump announced on Monday that the US and India have reached a trade deal and will immediately move to lower tariffs on each other’s goods. Moreover, Iran and the US are expected to resume nuclear talks on Friday, further boosting investors' confidence.
- The US Dollar ticks lower on Tuesday and moves away from an over one-week high, touched the previous day, lending some support to the Gold during the Asian session. The aforementioned negative factors, however, might keep a lid on further gains for the bullion.
- The release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December 2025 and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be delayed due to a partial US government shutdown. Hence, the USD price dynamics would continue to influence the XAU/USD pair.
Gold might struggle to move back above $5,000 and $23.6% Fibo. level
The commodity showed resilience below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and bounced off the 50% retracement level of the July 2025-January 2026 rally on Monday. The upward slope of the SMA suggests dips could be supported. Adding to this, the XAU/USD pair currently holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, pegged around the $4,645-4,650 area, and should offer nearby support. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51.91 and edges higher, hinting at stabilizing momentum.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands below the Signal line and below zero, reinforcing a bearish tone. The negative histogram widens, pointing to intensifying downward momentum. Meanwhile, any further move up could refocus the 23.6% retracement at $4,995.94, while failure to hold the first support would leave the recovery vulnerable to further consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The GBP is showing modest gains against the USD, outperforming G10 peers as markets prepare for the upcoming BoE meeting. Recent UK data has reduced expectations for easing, with a 25bps cut now priced in by June, note Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret from Scotiabank.
GBP performance analysis
"The focus is on domestic risks and events as market participants look to Thursday’s BoE, where a widely anticipated hold is likely to be paired with a relatively upbeat tone."
"The GBP’s latest upswing appears to be fundamentally supported by the rise in spreads."
"Political risk remains elevated as markets eye developments related to PM Starmer’s leadership and the ongoing risk of challengers to the role."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Rabobank's RaboResearch Team has raised its 2026 Brent forecasts to $64/bbl from $58.25/bbl due to geopolitical tensions. WTI is now expected to average $59.80/bbl, up from $54.60/bbl. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran, on crude oil prices and the overall energy market.
Geopolitical risks influence oil prices
"Due to geopolitical tensions, we are raising our 2026 Brent forecasts from geopolitical tensions to $64/bbl from $58.25/bbl."
"We remain careful about hedging refined products until crude oil prices trend lower and inventories build."
"A widespread economic slowdown from surging metals prices needs to be observed, and we currently see OPEC continuing to delay any further supply returns for 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver reaches levels beyond $87.00 after bouncing from one-month lows below $72.00
- Precious metals are bouncing up on Tuesday, amid an improved market mood.
- XAG/USD’s bulls are likely to be challenged at the $88.00-$90.00 area.
Silver (XAG/USD) shows moderate gains on Tuesday, trading at $87.05 at the time of writing. The white metal found some footing after plummeting more than 30% in the previous two trading days, hitting one-month lows right below the $72.00 line.
Contrary to their usual behaviour, precious metals are recovering on Tuesday amid a brighter market sentiment. A trade deal between the US and India and news about upcoming nuclear talks with Iran have improved investors' mood and are boosting demand for risky assets.
Technical Analysis: XAG/USD immediate resistance is at $88.00
XAG/USD has trimmed some losses, but technical indicators are still at levels highlighting a bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the Signal line and the zero mark, while the negative histogram contracts toward zero. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges higher, hinting at ∑ unwinding negative pressure, but remains below the key 50 level.
On the upside, the pair is likely to meet resistance at Monday's highs, in the $88.00 area. A confirmation beyond here would shift the focus towards the $100.00 round level and the intra-day resistance in the $104.00 area.
Support levels are at the $71.37 monthly low and below here, the early December highs, and mid-December lows in the $60.00 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD appreciates as the US Dollar pares its recent gains from the previous two sessions.
- The New Zealand Dollar strengthened on expectations that the RBNZ will start raising interest rates later this year.
- The Greenback may regain ground as 10-year Treasury yields hover near 4.27% after a sharp prior rise.
NZD/USD recovers losses registered in the previous two consecutive sessions, trading around 0.6050 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) struggles after two days of gains.
However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be limited as the US Dollar may regain its ground, receiving support as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond hovered near 4.27% on Tuesday after a nearly 1% rise in the prior session, underpinned by strong US economic data and shifting Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations toward hawkish.
Monday’s release showed an unexpected rebound in US factory activity, underscoring economic resilience, as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, beating market expectations of 48.5.
The NZD/USD pair remains stronger despite Stats NZ data showing seasonally adjusted Building Permits fell 4.6% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025, reversing a downwardly revised 2.7% rise in November.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will begin raising interest rates later this year. The central bank’s first policy meeting is scheduled on February 18 under new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, who is likely to outline her policy direction.
Traders await labor market data due on Wednesday, with the Q4 Unemployment Rate seen holding at 5.3%, the highest since 2016, while Employment is expected to increase 0.3%.
Sentiment was also supported by upbeat data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, after a private survey showed mainland manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in three months. China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, matching expectations and marking the strongest expansion since October.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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