Forex News
- The New Zealand Dollar weakens as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforces expectations of a restrictive Fed policy.
- US inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, above market expectations.
- Investors now focus on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations report due on Wednesday.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5940 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the day, pressured by stronger-than-expected inflation data from the United States (US). The rebound in the US Dollar (USD) is weighing on the pair as markets scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary easing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April from 3.3% previously, above market expectations of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.6%, in line with forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased to 2.8% YoY from 2.6% previously, also exceeding the 2.7% consensus.
The report also noted that energy prices rose 3.8% in April, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly increase in the overall index. Shelter and food costs also continued to rise, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures in the United States.
Meanwhile, weekly ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 33K jobs per week over the four weeks ending April 25, signaling a modest improvement in labor market momentum.
Following the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced toward 98.40, while US Treasury yields also moved higher. Investors now assess that the Fed may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer in order to contain inflationary pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a rate hike by the December meeting increased to 30.3% after the CPI release, up from 21.5% the previous day.
The US Dollar is also benefiting from safe-haven demand. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after US President Donald Trump stated that the US-Iran ceasefire was “on massive life support,” reviving concerns over a possible resumption of military operations.
On the New Zealand side, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a cautious stance or even consider further tightening to bring inflation back toward the 2% midpoint could help limit NZD/USD losses. Markets are now awaiting the RBNZ’s Q2 inflation expectations report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.44% | 0.63% | 0.30% | 0.25% | 0.41% | 0.36% | 0.48% | |
| EUR | -0.44% | 0.18% | -0.11% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.63% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.39% | -0.23% | -0.28% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | 0.11% | 0.32% | -0.08% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.25% | 0.22% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.41% | 0.04% | 0.23% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.36% | 0.10% | 0.28% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.04% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.48% | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.17% | -0.25% | -0.08% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Kevin Warsh squeaked through the Senate 51-45 on Tuesday to claim a seat on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors, with the separate vote to confirm him as Fed Chair scheduled for Wednesday and Jerome Powell's term as chair wrapping up on Friday. Fetterman and Coons were the only Democrats to cross over; the rest of the chamber broadly echoed Warren's "sock puppet" framing of a Trump-friendly chair.
Warsh, 55, served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011. Originally, he backed the post-crisis quantitative easing (QE) program, then publicly turned on it and resigned in protest over the Fed's continued bond-buying. Roughly $6.6 trillion in balance sheet later, he is one Senate vote away from running the institution he walked out on.
That history matters. Warsh has floated a genuinely unusual policy combo for his Chair tenure: aggressive balance sheet tapering paired with short-end rate cuts, shrinking the Fed's market footprint while offsetting any long-end tightening by easing at the front. Citadel Securities flags a high bar for future QE under his watch, calling it "limited to crisis situations". Even his slogans are quotable, with Warsh telling the Banking Committee that price stability should mean "prices that no one's talking about", a softer rephrasing of the 2% target that hints he may quietly redefine the mandate without ever touching the number.
Whether any of that survives a Trump White House demanding rate cuts, a $6.6 trillion balance sheet, and a 3.8% YoY Consumer Price Index (CPI) print that landed the very morning he was confirmed is the actual question. Can a self-described inflation hawk really cut into the hottest annual reading since May 2023 without becoming the very kind of central banker he spent a decade criticizing?
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Fetterman and Coons were the only Democrats to cross over; the rest of the chamber broadly echoed Warren's "sock puppet" framing of a Trump-friendly chair.
- Headline CPI ran at 3.8% YoY in April, the hottest annual print since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus.
- Core CPI also overshot, ticking up to 2.8% YoY and 0.4% MoM, hinting at broadening price pressure beyond gasoline.
- DJIA futures slid from near 49,800 to below 49,400 in the minutes after the release before stabilizing above 49,500.
- Markets now price close to zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the first move pushed deep into 2027 territory.
Overnight and premarket
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures spent the overnight session in a tight range between 49,600 and 49,700, with little appetite to pick a side ahead of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). That calm broke at 12:30 GMT, when the report landed hotter than expected and sent futures roughly 400 points lower inside a single 15-minute candle. The contract has since clawed back about half the move, trading back above 49,500, but the rate cut narrative that drove the first quarter just took another body blow.
Sticky inflation, stickier core
Headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM in April, matching consensus, while the YoY figure jumped to 3.8% from 3.3% in March, the hottest reading since May 2023. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) attributed more than 40% of the monthly gain to the energy index, which itself jumped 3.8% MoM. Gasoline is now running close to 30% above year-ago levels, a direct readout of the Iran war's grip on Oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, both above forecast. That last line is the one that matters: the energy shock is bleeding into broader goods and services pricing rather than staying contained at the pump.
Rate cut hopes wiped from the board
Heading into the print, traders had already pared their easing bets. The data finished the job. CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows near-zero probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) cut anywhere in 2026, with the first move drifting into the back half of 2027 per Bank of America and other major sell-side calls. Fed's Goolsbee, due at 13:00 GMT, is flagged hawkish on the economic calendar, which would only reinforce the message. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has little room to cut while gasoline runs at 28% YoY and core inflation is reaccelerating, even with growth signals softening at the edges.
Pipeline pressure on Wednesday and Thursday
The Producer Price Index (PPI) lands on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, with the YoY headline number expected to jump to 4.9% from 4% and core PPI seen at 4.3% from 3.8%. Hot PPI on top of hot CPI would extend the disinflation setback into pipeline territory and leave the Fed even less cover to cut. Thursday brings April Retail Sales, where consensus sits at 0.5% MoM versus 1.7% previously. Worth flagging: retail sales are reported in nominal terms, not adjusted for inflation. With headline CPI printing 0.6% MoM, a 0.5% nominal retail sales figure actually means real consumer spending contracted in April. Expect plenty of "consumer holding up" headlines that quietly evaporate once deflated by the CPI itself.
Trump heads to Beijing with low expectations
Adding to the macro overhang, Trump arrives in Beijing on Wednesday evening for a state visit with Xi Jinping, with formal meetings on Thursday and Friday. Iran is firmly on the agenda. With the Strait of Hormuz still snarled and the ceasefire widely described as cracking, the administration is reportedly looking to lean on China over its purchases of Iranian Oil. Expect the usual pageantry, a soybean order, possibly a Boeing deal, and polite restatements of existing positions. Markets are not pricing in much from the trip, and that probably reflects reality. China remains Iran's largest Oil customer and has refused to recognize US sanctions on Iranian crude, so the optimistic case for a meaningful pressure win is thin. For DJIA bulls hoping the visit delivers a circuit-breaker on the Iran story, the bar is set low for a reason.
Dow Jones 15-minute chart
Futures FAQs
The futures market is an exchange-based auction in which participants buy and sell contracts of an underlying asset at a predetermined future date and price. The set price is agreed upon today and is derived from the underlying asset. Futures contracts can be based on a wide range of assets, with commodities among the most popular, although currencies and indices are other common underlying assets. Futures prices depend on their underlying asset and act as a mechanism for firms, institutions, and large-position traders to manage risks through hedging.
Futures can be traded in different ways. The most common ways are via a regulated exchange or via Contracts For Difference (CFDs). In the former, liquidity is high and pricing is more transparent, with the broker serving only as an intermediary between you and the market. Still, it generally requires more capital. The largest futures exchanges are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME). As for CFDs, these require less capital and thus trading is more flexible, but at the cost of less transparency.
The E-mini S&P 500 index, Crude Oil (Brent, WTI), Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper, and soft commodities such as grains are among the most actively traded contracts. These offer strong liquidity and are closely followed by traders worldwide. Futures market volume consistently exceeds spot market volume, often significantly. This dominance is driven by leverage, hedging, and higher liquidity on exchanges.
Yes. Future gauges, particularly equity index futures such as those of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, are widely considered key gauges of market sentiment because they reflect investors’ expectations for the next session’s opening price. When equity futures drop, it is a sign of risk-aversion, signaling bearish market sentiment. On the contrary, rising equity futures suggest markets are risk on.
As a futures contract approaches its maturity date, the futures price converges upon the spot price, becoming almost identical at expiration. However, prices can diverge significantly before the contract ends. A market is in contango when future prices are higher than spot prices, while the mirror image is called backwardation (when current prices are higher than future prices). For commodities, the normal state of the market is contango because holding the asset over time incurs costs such as storage or insurance fees. When markets turn from contango to backwardation – or vice versa – it signals a shift in the trend: a change from contango to backwardation is taken as a bullish sign, while going from backwardation to contango is generally considered bearish.
- AUD/USD falls after US CPI accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, above market expectations of 3.7%.
- Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, signaling persistent underlying price pressure.
- Stronger inflation data lifted US Treasury yields and boosted the US Dollar as markets scaled back expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.
The AUD/USD pair fell toward the 0.7220 region on Tuesday after hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data boosted the US Dollar (USD) and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, surpassing market expectations of 3.7%, while the monthly CPI rose 0.6%. Meanwhile, Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM, in-line, and 2.8% YoY, slightly above consensus, signaling that underlying price pressure remains persistent despite past signs of moderating inflation.
The stronger inflation figures pushed US Treasury yields higher and supported the Greenback across the board as investors reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Markets now increasingly expect the Fed to maintain a cautious stance, and a growing minority of traders are even betting on a rate hike in 2027, particularly as policymakers continue monitoring inflation risks linked to elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7226. The pair is hovering around a nearby pivot there, leaving the short-term tone neutral as price sits between underlying demand at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7187 and overhead supply defined by the 20-period SMA at 0.7234. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 suggests a lack of directional conviction, hinting at consolidation while the market digests recent gains.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7229, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7233 and the 20-period SMA at 0.7234, forming a tight cap just above spot. On the downside, immediate support is anchored at the 0.7226 pivot, with further floors at 0.7215 and the 100-period SMA around 0.7187, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the pair slips lower.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Gold trades on the defensive on Tuesday as a stronger US Dollar and hotter-than-expected US inflation data weigh on the precious metal.
- US inflation accelerated in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.
- Technically, XAU/USD remains capped below the 100-day SMA, with RSI and ATR signaling subdued momentum and moderating volatility.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its slide on Tuesday, retracing the previous day’s gains as hotter-than-expected US inflation data boosts US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,665, down nearly 1.50% after hitting a three-week high of $4,773 during the Asian session.
US consumer inflation accelerated in April, largely driven by higher energy prices as Oil remained elevated amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% MoM in April after increasing 0.9% in March, matching market expectations, while annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3% previously, above forecasts of 3.7%.
Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, up from 0.2% in March and above expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, core inflation climbed to 2.8% from 2.6%, also exceeding forecasts of 2.7%.
The stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates higher for longer or even consider rate hikes, pushing US Treasury yields higher. A higher interest rate environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold because the precious metal does not offer any yield or interest.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. However, markets still price in a modest chance of a rate hike at the December meeting, with the probability standing near 36%.
US-Iran negotiations remain at an impasse over Iran’s nuclear program. US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that the ceasefire is “on massive life support.” The remarks came after Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to the US-backed peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”
Reports also suggest that the US President is considering a resumption of military operations, alongside a potential restart of “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Tehran is prepared to respond to “any aggression,” adding that their move would leave the US “surprised.”
Technical analysis: XAU/USD struggles below 100-day SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a constructive bias as it remains well above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $4,327 while still capped by the 100-day SMA near $4,785. This configuration suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, though the latest pullback keeps the metal trading below its shorter-term trend gauge.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.02 sits just below the midline, hinting at a consolidative tone rather than outright bearish momentum, while the Average True Range (ATR) near $116.29 points to contained but still elevated daily volatility.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal floor around $4,500, with the longer-term 200-day SMA near $4,328 reinforcing a deeper demand zone if selling pressure resumes.
On the topside, resistance is first aligned at the 100-day SMA near $4,785, ahead of the more prominent horizontal barrier around $4,850. A sustained break above this cluster would be needed to revive bullish continuation, whereas a failure to clear it would keep XAU/USD confined to its current range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- US inflation accelerates to 3.8% in April, above market expectations, supporting the US Dollar.
- Markets scale back Fed rate cut expectations following the stronger CPI report.
- The Japanese Yen remains supported by intervention risks and BoJ rate hike expectations.
USD/JPY trades around 157.65 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.30% on the day. The pair benefits from renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD) after stronger-than-expected inflation data from the United States (US), while the Japanese Yen (JPY) limits gains amid persistent intervention concerns from Japanese authorities.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April from 3.3% previously, above market expectations of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.6%, in line with forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased to 2.8% YoY from 2.6% previously, also exceeding the 2.7% consensus.
The report also noted that energy prices rose 3.8% in April, accounting for more than 40% of the monthly increase in the overall index. Shelter and food costs also continued to rise, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures in the US.
Meanwhile, weekly ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 33K jobs per week over the four weeks ending April 25, signaling a modest improvement in labor market momentum.
Following the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) advances toward 98.30, while US Treasury yields move higher. Investors now assess that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer in order to contain inflationary pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a rate hike by the December meeting increased to 29.6% after the CPI release, up from 21.5% in the previous day.
The US Dollar is also benefiting from safe-haven demand. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after US President Donald Trump stated that the US-Iran ceasefire was “on massive life support,” reviving concerns over a possible resumption of military operations.
On the Japanese side, the JPY remains supported by intervention speculation. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently confirmed that the United States and Japan had taken certain joint actions to address excessive volatility in currency markets. Investors, therefore, remain cautious about the risk of another intervention should USD/JPY approach the 160.00 area again.
Expectations of monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are also supporting the Japanese currency. The Summary of Opinions from the central bank’s April meeting showed that some members believe another rate hike could come soon, while markets continue to price in an additional increase in Japanese interest rates in the coming months.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.74% | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 0.51% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.26% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.74% | -0.26% | -0.45% | -0.45% | -0.38% | -0.38% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | 0.17% | 0.45% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.32% | 0.19% | 0.45% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | 0.12% | 0.38% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | -0.38% | 0.12% | 0.38% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.51% | -0.03% | 0.23% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent backs Japan’s concerns over excessive exchange-rate volatility.
- German inflation rises, lifting bets on ECB rate hike.
- Traders price in a 92% chance of an ECB rate increase in June.
EUR/JPY falls by some 0.18% on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said excess volatility in the FX markets is undesirable. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 184.93 after peaking at around 185.46.
Yen gains as US-Japan officials warn against FX volatility
Bessent met with the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during his trip to Tokyo. He stated, “I believe the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are strong and resilient, and that will be reflected in the exchange rate.” His comments confirmed what the Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said earlier, that she and Bessent reaffirmed close efforts to tackle exchange rate moves.
Inflationary pressures build in Europe; ECB expected to hike
Data in Europe revealed that Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.9% YoY in April, as expected. Other data showed that economic sentiment in Germany improved in the ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment from May, rising to -10.2, up from -17.2 and exceeding forecasts of -19.8.
Meanwhile, money markets had begun to price in European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes due to high energy prices sparked by the US-Iran conflict. Data from Prime Terminal revealed a 92% chance for a 25 basis points increase at the ECB’s June 11 meeting, with traders seeing the ECB’s Deposit Rate ending the year at 2.75%.
ECB’s Joachim Nagel said that if inflation expectations de-anchor, “we will see in June” the chance of a rate hike. ECB’s Patsalides was dovish, saying that there are scenarios in which the ECB wouldn’t need to raise rates.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades at 184.93. The cross holds above the clustered support formed by the simple moving average (SMA) bundle around 184.80 and the two upward-sloping trend-line break levels at 184.19 and 183.85, which together suggest the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits near 48, hinting at neutral momentum and pointing to a market that is pausing rather than reversing while price stays supported by this underlying structure.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the SMA cluster near 184.80, with the rising trend lines around 184.19 and 183.85 providing a deeper buffer if sellers press lower. As long as EUR/JPY holds above these levels, dips are likely to be viewed as corrective within the prevailing bullish structure, with the absence of nearby overhead resistance implying that a sustained break higher would open the way for further gains once momentum re-energizes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.72% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.51% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.10% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.72% | -0.23% | -0.43% | -0.43% | -0.35% | -0.34% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | 0.17% | 0.43% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.32% | 0.19% | 0.43% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | 0.11% | 0.35% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | -0.38% | 0.10% | 0.34% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.51% | -0.03% | 0.21% | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports that the Pound (GBP) has weakened as UK political uncertainty intensifies after poor local election results for the government. EUR/GBP has risen and cable has fallen, with Gilts selling off modestly. He warns that a potential Labour leadership contest and any shift to the left could increase downside risks for GBP and Gilts.
Leadership uncertainty pressures Pound and Gilts
"The pound has weakened further at the start of this week reflecting building political uncertainty in the UK after last week’s disappointing local election results for the government. Pound weakness has extended overnight resulting in EUR/GBP rising up to 0.8675 and cable has fallen towards 1.3550."
"It has triggered a sell-off in the Gilt market where 10-year and 30-year yields both increased by around 15bps. So far the market moves have been relatively modest but are beginning to reflect building unease over the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer who is facing growing pressure from within the Labour party to step down."
"It has been reported that 79 of Labour’s 403 MPs have now publicly called on the prime minister to step aside which is moving closer to the 81 MPs required to officially trigger a leadership contest. Prime Minister Starmer faces an important cabinet meeting today."
"A leadership contest whether immediate or more drawn out will add to political uncertainty in the near-term which is negative for the pound and gilts. The risk of a bigger sell-off will increase if Labour shift towards the left."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
