Forex News
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that a sharp rise in the 2-year UST yield, driven by stronger US CPI and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, has revived speculation of a 50bp FOMC hike. He remains sceptical this is necessary, favouring 25bp, but warns that stronger data and higher Oil could shift expectations further in favour of the Dollar and pressure EUR/USD below 1.1000.
Hawkish Fed repricing supports Dollar
"On this occasion the market rethink is to consider the prospect of a 50bp hike. This is only now being considered because of Waller’s comments prior to the CPI report rather than the CPI report itself. Waller’s comment that a stronger CPI print may warrant a 50bp hike has sparked a debate over whether Waller had knowledge of the CPI print."
"The OIS market is now partially pricing the risk of a 50bp hike on 9th December."
"We remain sceptical of the need to hike by 50bps at this stage and suspect the majority will see the better risk-reward in going by 25bps. We still have another payrolls report (but no further CPI prints, although it’s the day after) before the FOMC meeting and a strong print plus a rebound in crude oil after the recent sharp drop would be one scenario of a possible more aggressive hike."
"It’s still more a risk than a core view but it would alter the current balanced expectations in the markets across key central banks and shift rate hike expectations much more in favour of the dollar that would likely prompt a further lurch lower in EUR/USD and bring levels below the 1.1000-level into play."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Indian Rupee rallies further against the US Dollar due to multiple tailwinds.
- Lower energy prices and the continued inflow of foreign funds into the Indian stock market have strengthened the INR.
- Concerns about the AI investment outlook have improved the appeal of Indian stocks.
The Indian Rupee (INR) continues to outperform the US Dollar (USD) on the back of significant inflow of foreign funds into the Indian stock market and a continued decline in oil prices. As of writing, the USD/INR pair posts a fresh five-month low near 93.70.
FIIs buying remains significant in past trading days
There has been relentless buying in the Indian stock market by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the past trading days.
So far in November, FIIs have remained net buyers in full trading days and have poured a cumulative investment worth Rs. 53,172.24 crore.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which are in their developing stage, tend to outperform when they become attractive investment spots for overseas investors.
What has made India an attractive bet for foreign investors?
According to a report from NDTV Profit, India's relative lack of massive, over-hyped Artificial Intelligence (AI) hardware/infrastructure concentration is now viewed as a defensive advantage, offering better earnings visibility and stability.
Global AI infrastructure-related stocks have seen a massive sell-off since the defeat of United States (US) Republicans in midterm elections.
Strategists at ABN Amro said after the outcome of US midterm elections that the “AI investment story acquired a political risk premium” after “disappointing guidance suggested the Democratic midterm victory could bring greater congressional oversight of AI data infrastructure investment,” undermining sentiment toward AI-related assets and broader risk appetite.
Additionally, fears that Jensen Huang's days as Nvidia CEO are numbered following reports of his affair with alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang have heightened concerns regarding the outlook of spending on AI infrastructure across the globe.
On Kalshi, speculators say there’s just a 17% chance Huang is gone by 2027. Those odds rise to 30% by 2028, and 35% by 2029. However, they think there is a 75% probability that Huang will depart by 2031, CNBC reported.
Oil prices continue to decline on US-Iran deal hopes
Oil prices have fallen significantly after remarks from US President Donald Trump pointing to no further military action against Iran.
Analysts at MUFG note that investor optimism has been further buoyed by a softer tone from Washington, after President Trump told CNN it is “highly unlikely” he will need to order fresh military strikes on Iran if talks continue to show progress. MUFG highlights that Trump also stressed the outcome still hinges on the quality of any deal, stating that “it depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” a nuance the bank sees as crucial for sustaining the recent pullback in geopolitical risk premia.
As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is 0.6% down to near Rs. 8,050, closer to its two-month low of Rs. 7,861 posted on Tuesday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMA
On Wednesday, USD/INR falls to near 93.70, extending a clear bearish bias as spot holds below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.69. The break and sustained trade under this short-term EMA suggest sellers remain in control, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 25 signals oversold conditions that could slow the downside rather than immediately reverse it.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 94.69 is the meaningful resistance after the June 25 low at 94.15, and a daily close back above the dynamic brrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and hint at a corrective bounce. Looking down, the pair is likely to find suppourt near 93.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Deutsche Bank strategists explain that an upside surprise in US core and headline CPI, combined with hawkish comments from Fed officials, triggered a sharp selloff in US Treasuries. Two-year yields saw their biggest daily jump since 2025, while 10-year yields approached 5%. Market pricing now reflects a more extended and aggressive Fed hiking cycle into 2027.
Hawkish repricing across curve
"That US CPI print drove the biggest moves of the day, with the monthly core CPI print for October above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected)."
"Moreover, it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%."
"That’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip."
"Meanwhile, the headline CPI numbers were faster still, with monthly headline CPI at +0.35% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the 3-month annualised pace at +5.72%."
"For markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold bulls struggle to extend gains beyond $4.050 following a sharp reversal from the $4,150 area on Tuesday.
- The US Dollar surges as hot US inflation figures boost hopes of further Fed tightening. and sent the US Dollar surging.
- The XAU/USD's bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart suggests that bears are taking control.
Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a shallow recovery attempt on Wednesday, with bulls struggling to consolidate above $4.050 during the European session, leaving bears in control after the impulsive reversal from the $4,150 resistance area on Tuesday. Precious metals remain vulnerable on Wednesday, as the US Dollar (USD) rallies across the board, boosted by rising hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December and with Oil prices picking up from lows.
Data from the US released on Tuesday revealed that consumer inflation grew beyond expectations in October, bolstering the case for another Fed tightening move in December and providing a fresh boost to a hitherto soft US Dollar.
Comments from the US central bank have endorsed that view earlier on Wednesday. The President of the Philadelphia Fed, Anna Paulson, called for a “further gradual tightening” to bring inflation to target, and somewhat later, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that “it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more quarter-percentage-point increases,” fuelling the US Dollar further and weighing on precious metals.
Technical Analysis: Potential Double Top formation at the $4,150 area
XAU/USD trades at $4,050, still holding a near-term constructive bias from late October lows, although the bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart and a potential Double Top (DT) formation around $4,150 suggest that buyers are giving up. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart remains capped below the key 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative territory at -9.51, supporting the bearish view.
Immediate support lies between the November 6 and 10 lows at $4,030 and $4,023, respectively. A clear break below here would confirm the mentioned DT, adding pressure towards the November 2 and 3 highs, around $3,970. The DT's measured target lies around the November 3 low of $3,911.
On the upside, the intra-day high at $4,066 is closing the path towards a key resistance at the mentioned $4,150 area (November 5 and 9 highs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD declines to near 1.1138 as the US Dollar outperforms its peers.
- Traders raise hawkish Fed bets as the US core CPI continues to remain elevated.
- EUR/USD risks extending its decline toward 1.1000 if sellers breach the recent low at 1.1104.
The Euro (EUR) is down 0.2% to near 1.1138 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens due to fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could follow an aggressive monetary tightening cycle to contain consistently accelerating inflationary pressures.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.24% | 0.47% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.05% | 0.01% | -0.26% | 0.02% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.24% | 0.04% | 0.26% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.07% | -0.19% | 0.07% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.26% | 0.00% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.28% | 0.50% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.28% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | -0.47% | -0.24% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.50% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh almost four-week high at 102.51.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets have started pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike in December, following the release of the hotter-than-projected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. However, the odds are nominal at around 13.5%.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank said in a note that the “monthly core CPI print for October was above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected).” Deutsche Bank added that “it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%.” According to the bank, “that’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip.”
The bank also underscores that “meanwhile, the headline CPI numbers were faster still, with monthly headline CPI at +0.35% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the 3-month annualised pace at +5.72%.”
Meanwhile, the regime change at the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep the Euro highly volatile.
ECB succession focus as Klaas Knot signals readiness to act in future crises
Rabobank highlights that Dutch central banker Klaas Knot, a leading candidate to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde, used a Financial Times interview to underscore the Governing Council’s crisis-fighting credentials, stressing that “If circumstances require it, we will not hesitate to take action.” Analysts note that Knot’s remarks were not about revisiting “50bps rate hikes due to geopolitically driven inflation,” but rather about the opposite scenario, in which Europe faces a future crisis “of a different nature.” In that context, Rabobank points out that Knot “would not rule out developing another, more tailored instrument,” raising the prospect of fresh policy tools should conditions deteriorate again.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1138, extending a soft bearish tone as price holds beneath recent closes while remaining just under the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1200, which now acts as nearby hurdle.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 41, below the neutral 50 line, hinting that downside pressure still prevails even as oversold conditions seen earlier in the month have eased.
On the downside, the recent low of 1.1104 is the immediate support; a break below that level would expose the pair to 1.1000. On the upside, a recovery back toward the 20-day EMA support zone near 1.1200 would be the first sign of stabilization, and sustained trading above that level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a broader corrective bounce.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on November 11 at 12:41 GMT to amend the third bullet point, which incorrectly stated that ECB policymaker Klaas Knot was set to replace President Christine Lagarde. Knot is one of the leading candidates to succeed her, but no appointment has been confirmed.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM print compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Nov 10, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.3%
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that rising global bond yields are pressuring leveraged housing markets such as Australia. Recent NAB business confidence and home loans data were notably weak. While AUD rates are still preferred over USD rates, he judges that AUD/USD has room to fall given the Australian Dollar’s strong performance earlier in the year.
Rates trade favoured over currency
"The rise in bond yields, however, is feeding through to leveraged housing markets, and Australia is certainly one of them."
"Yesterday’s NAB business confidence indicator took a sharp turn lower, and this morning’s home loans data were at least as disappointing."
"In the current market, I suspect that may still be a better trade than shorting AUD/USD, although the latter has room to fall given how well the Australian dollar has performed overall this year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner reports improving Japanese manufacturing sentiment, supported by semiconductor and data centre demand, strong corporate profits and firm wages. This backdrop could reinforce Bank of Japan (BoJ) confidence that inflation is stable near 2%.
Stronger Japan data versus Dollar momentum
"All of the above can feed into the Bank of Japan's view that inflation is now stable at 2.00% and its accommodative monetary policy can be reined in."
"The broadly strong dollar means that USD/JPY could easily push through resistance at 159, but we increasingly think investors will be looking to acquire cheap yen should USD/JPY push above 160 again."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Deutsche Bank analysts report that the strong US CPI data and hawkish Fed commentary sparked a selloff in US Treasuries and pressured US equities. The S&P 500 slipped as investors priced faster hikes, with Tech and AI-linked names underperforming initially. However, a revenue beat and upgraded guidance from CoreWeave later supported futures, pointing to some recovery in the S&P 500.
Rates shock hits US stocks
"In fact, the 2yr Treasury yield (+17.6bps) saw its biggest daily jump since April 2025, surging to 4.74%, and markets even priced a modest chance of a 50bp Fed hike in December."
"So it was a very rough day for rates, and that in turn put renewed pressure on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) pulling back as investors priced in faster hikes."
"With markets pricing in a more hawkish Fed, that also drove a fresh selloff in US equities, though this did ease a bit as the session went on."
"Tech stocks underperformed, with a -5.47% drop in Nvidia leading the Nasdaq (-0.74%) and the Mag-7 (-0.83%) to larger declines than the S&P 500 (-0.38%)."
"After the close, we then heard from CoreWeave, which delivered a Q3 revenue beat ($3.66bn vs $3.56bn est.) and upgraded its full-year revenue guidance ($13.0-13.3bn vs $12.9bn est.)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that a hotter-than-expected US October CPI report boosted the Dollar, triggered a sell-off in Treasuries led by the short end, and weighed on US stocks.
Hot CPI shifts Fed expectations
"Yesterday’s hot US October CPI jolted markets. USD rallied across the board, Treasuries sold-off led by the short-end, and US stocks fell."
"The US inflation surprise shifted the FOMC December rate debate from whether to hold or hike 25bps to a choice between a 25bps or 50bps hike. Indeed, Fed funds futures moved to price-in as much as 15% odds of a 50bps increase on December 9. That hawkish shift bodes well for USD."
"The monthly rise in US CPI was a touch higher than expected and inflation momentum accelerated. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m (consensus: 0.3%) vs. 0.6% in September, and core CPI printed at 0.3% m/m for a third straight month (consensus: 0.2%). "
"Meanwhile, three-month annualized inflation picked up, signaling price pressures are strengthening. Also, inflation measures which filter out extreme price swings (trimmed, sticky, and median) quickened further above 2%."
"Post-US CPI comments from Fed officials reinforced the case for additional policy tightening:"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research, led by FX & Credit Strategist Chang Wei Liang, examines China’s evolving holdings of US securities over the past decade. The study looks for evidence of de-dollarisation, highlighting substantial Chinese net outflows from US equities and bonds and assessing how geopolitical tensions and sanctions risk are influencing China’s portfolio allocation decisions.
Examining China’s US securities holdings
"Given this backdrop, how have foreign holdings of USD assets changed over time, and is there any evidence of a “de-dollarisation” in financial assets?"
"Given the size and importance of China, we examine the trend in Chinese holdings of US securities over the last ten years."
"Chinese net outflows from US equities and bonds over the last decade have been substantial."
"But China’s de-dollarisation is not reflective of any broader trends across other countries."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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