Forex News
- Silver wavers around $51.00 after rejection at $52.00 on Wednesday.
- Dwindling hopes of a Fed interest rate cut in December are boosting the US Dollar.
- XAG/USD’s broader bias remains positive as long as it remains above $50.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) retreated from weekly highs near $52.00 on Wednesday, as the US Dollar jumped following the release of hawkishly leaning FOMC minutes. The precious metal is now hesitating around the $51.00 level, although it maintains its broader bullish trend intact, while above the $50.00 area.
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, but the minutes of the meeting, released on Wednesday, showed a significant opposition within the committee. This has prompted investors to dial down hopes of another interest rate cut in December, which sent the Greenback rallying across the board.
XAU/USD has a strong support area at $50.00
The technical picture shows hesitation, with price action moving within Wednesday’s trading range, with upside attempts capped below a previous support area, at $52.00 (November 13 lows), and bears contained above the key $50.00 area.
The long wicks in the daily chart reveal an undecided market. To the downside, bears should confirm the break of a confluence of support levels in the area of $50.00, where Wednesday’s low meets the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the early November rally and the rising trendline from late October lows.
Further down, the October 13 high, and November 18 low, at $49.35 would come into focus, ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle, near $48.90.
Bulls, on the contrary, would have to break above the mentioned $52.00 area to shift the focus towards the November 14 high at $53.65 and the long-term highs between $54.60 and $54.80.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold drifts lower on Thursday as reduced Fed rate cut bets continue to boost the USD.
- The risk-on impulse also undermines the safe-haven commodity ahead of the US NFP.
- US economic worries could offer some support to the XAU/USD pair and limit losses.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling as traders keenly await the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In the meantime, reduced bets for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lift the US Dollar (USD) to its highest level since late May and exerted some downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven Gold. However, concerns about the weakening economic momentum on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown help limit deeper losses for the precious metal. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that this week's bounce from levels just below the $4,000 psychological mark has run out of steam.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold is pressured by reduced Fed rate cut bets and sustained USD buying
- The minutes from the October 28-29 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate, while several were against the decision. Policymakers cautioned that cutting interest rates further could risk entrenched inflation.
- The hawkish outlook forced investors to further scale back their bets that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again in December. This, in turn, lifts the US Dollar to its highest level since late May during the Asian session on Thursday and exerts some downward pressure on the non-yielding Gold.
- Traders now look forward to the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September, due later today, amid signs of a softening labor market. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity.
- US President Donald Trump reportedly approved a 28-point plan for peace between Russia and Ukraine this week. Multiple news outlets suggested that the plan in question would require Ukraine to make territorial concessions and implement significant reductions in its military capabilities.
- The US delegation made a rare wartime visit to Kyiv for talks with Ukraine's leaders in an attempt to revive stalled peace talks with Russia. This is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal and warrants some caution for bullish traders amid a fresh wave of the risk-on trade.
Gold awaits acceptance above $4,100 or break below 200-period EMA on H4 before the next leg of a directional move
From a technical perspective, any further decline is more likely to find decent support near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently pegged near the $4,018 region. This is followed by the weekly swing low, levels just below the $4,000 psychological mark, below which the Gold price could accelerate the fall towards the $3,931 support. The downward trajectory could extend further towards retesting the late October swing low, around the $3,886 region.
On the flip side, the Asian session peak, around the $4,110 region, could act as an immediate resistance. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around he $4,120 area, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $4,152-4,155 region. The subsequent move up should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $4,200 round-figure mark.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Thu Nov 20, 2025 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 50K
Previous: 22K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- EUR/JPY hit fresh record high of 181.73 on Thursday.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is positioned above the 70 mark, signaling a near-term downward correction.
- The primary support lies at the lower ascending channel boundary around 180.20.
EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, reached fresh all-time high of 181.73 and currently trading around 181.40 during the early European hours on Thursday. The currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.
Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the 70 mark, indicating overbought conditions and a likelihood of a near-term downward correction. The EUR/JPY cross suggests a stronger short-term momentum, as it remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
On the upside, the initial resistance lies at the psychological level of 182.00, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 182.20. A break above this confluence area could reinforce the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to approach the crucial level of 183.00.
The initial support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 180.20, followed by the nine-day EMA at 179.85. Further declines below this confluence support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the area around the 50-day EMA at 176.65.
From a macro perspective, the Japanese Yen struggles against its peers due to the potential for Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to unveil a stimulus package exceeding JPY 20 trillion.
The upside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the JPY may receive support on emergence of hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook. A Reuters poll indicated that the BoJ appears poised to raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at its December 18–19 meeting.
Additionally, BoJ board member Junko Koeda noted that she believes the central bank must continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices.” Koeda emphasized that ongoing economic and price trends warrant further policy adjustment.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.16% | 0.33% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.17% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.20% | 0.25% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.22% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.47% | 0.14% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | -0.25% | -0.47% | -0.34% | -0.44% | -0.51% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.14% | 0.34% | -0.10% | -0.16% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.17% | -0.03% | 0.44% | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.51% | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.00% | 0.05% | -0.16% | 0.32% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD attracts some buyers on Thursday, though the upside seems capped amid a firmer USD.
- The recent price action constitutes the formation of a falling wedge and favors bullish traders.
- The broader technical setup, however, warrants some caution ahead of the crucial US NFP report.
The NZD/USD pair gains some positive traction on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day's heavy losses to the lowest level since April 9. Spot prices stick to intraday gains above the 0.5600 mark through the early European session, though a sustained US Dollar (USD) buying might cap the upside ahead of the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September.
From a technical perspective, the recent downfall witnessed over the past two months or so along two converging trend lines constitutes the formation of a bullish falling wedge on the daily chart. That said, the recent repeated failures to build on the move beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and negative oscillators warrant some caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a stiff barrier near the 0.5665-0.5670 region, representing the top boundary of the falling wedge. Some follow-through buying could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the NZD/USD pair to the 0.5700 mark en route to the 50-day SMA pivotal resistance, currently pegged near the 0.5765 region. A sustained move beyond the latter will confirm that spot prices have bottomed out.
On the flip side, acceptance below the 0.5600 round figure and a subsequent break through the falling wedge support, around the 0.5570-0.5565 region, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The NZD/USD pair might then accelerate the downfall towards testing levels below the 0.5500 psychological mark, or a multi-year low touched in April, and prolong a nearly four-month-old downtrend.
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 20:
The US Dollar (USD) outperformed its rivals midweek as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) October policy meeting fed into expectations of a policy hold in December. The USD holds its ground early Thursday as investors await the September employment report, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate figures.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.90% | 0.76% | 1.97% | 0.24% | 0.85% | 1.19% | 1.55% | |
| EUR | -0.90% | -0.04% | 1.42% | -0.64% | -0.06% | 0.31% | 0.66% | |
| GBP | -0.76% | 0.04% | 1.19% | -0.61% | -0.02% | 0.34% | 0.70% | |
| JPY | -1.97% | -1.42% | -1.19% | -1.70% | -1.09% | -0.77% | -0.45% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | 0.64% | 0.61% | 1.70% | 0.62% | 0.96% | 1.31% | |
| AUD | -0.85% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 1.09% | -0.62% | 0.37% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -1.19% | -0.31% | -0.34% | 0.77% | -0.96% | -0.37% | 0.36% | |
| CHF | -1.55% | -0.66% | -0.70% | 0.45% | -1.31% | -0.70% | -0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Fed said in its October minutes that many policymakers thought that, under their outlooks, it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year. "Most participants noted further rate cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation objective," the publication read. The USD Index gathered bullish momentum in the late American session and climbed to a two-week-high above 100.00. Early Thursday, the USD Index clings to modest gains near 100.30.
In the meantime, US stock index futures rise sharply in the European morning as investors cheer Nvidia's earning report, which showed better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter and stronger-than-estimated sales forecasts for the fourth quarter. At the time of press, Nasdaq Futures were up nearly 2% on the day.
EUR/USD lost nearly 0.4% on Wednesday and closed the fourth consecutive day in negative territory. The pair stays on the back foot early Thursday and declines toward 1.1500.
GBP/USD declined sharply on Wednesday and closed below 1.3100 for the first time since early November. The pair struggles to stage a rebound in the European morning on Thursday and fluctuates in a narrow range, slightly above 1.3050.
USD/JPY's bullish rally gathered momentum in the American session on Wednesday and continued in the Asian session on Thursday. The pair was last seen trading at its highest level since mid-January above 157.50, gaining about 2% on a weekly basis. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said in a statement on Thursday that he is watching FX market moves with a high sense of urgency.
After climbing above $4,100 early Wednesday, Gold reversed its direction in the second half of the day and erased a large portion of its gains. XAU/USD edges lower in the European morning on Thursday and trades slightly above $4,050.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.34 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $59.28.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $63.15 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $63.21.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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