Forex News
- USD/CAD remains depressed amid a further USD slide, though the downside seems cushioned.
- Elevated Oil prices fuel inflationary concerns, lifting hawkish Fed bets and supporting the USD.
- The US-Iran stalemate further limits losses for the safe-haven buck ahead of the US ISM PMI.
The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the 1.3575-1.3570 region, or its lowest level since March 11. The US Dollar (USD) touches a two-week low and acts as a headwind for spot prices, though subdued Crude Oil prices undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and limits further losses.
Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to stalled US-Iran peace talks, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around Crude Oil prices. US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the strategic waterway and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues to a later stage. Trump further added that he's going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program.
Moreover, reports suggest that Trump was considering military strikes to break the deadlock, with Iran threatening to retaliate against US positions in case of renewed attacks. The situation reflects failing diplomatic efforts to end the war and raises skepticism over a near-term resolution. This remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets that the Fed could keep rates unchanged well into next year. This favors the USD bulls and backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair.
Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus later during the North American session. The key focus, however, will remain glued to developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which might continue to infuse volatility and produce some meaningful opportunities. Nevertheless, the USD/CAD pair remains on track to register losses for the fourth consecutive week.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- USD/CHF wavers right above 0.7800 after dropping from 0.7920 highs on Thursday.
- Swiss Retail Sales disappointed in March, although the impact on the CHF has been minimal.
- The USD retreated across the board on Friday amid echoes of an alleged USD/JPY intervention.
The US Dollar (USD) remains practically flat against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, wavering within a few pips above 0.7800, on track for a 0.35% weekly loss after dropping from highs above 0.7900 the previous day. The softer-than-expected Swiss Retail Sales data have failed to impact the pair, while an alleged intervention by Japanese authorities to stem Yen weakness has hit the Greenback across the board.
The Swiss Federal Statistics Office revealed on Friday that retail consumption year-on-year rose 0.5% in March, slightly above the 0.4% growth seen in February, but well short of the 1% increase forecasted by market analysts. On an annual basis, total retail sales have declined 0.1%.
Apart from that, an alleged intervention by Japanese authorities, consisting of selling US Dollars to support the Japanese Yen (JPY), has sent the US Dollar lower against its main currency peers on Friday.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance is supposed to have stepped into the Forex markets on Thursday, following comments by the Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, warning about immediate action. The USD/JPY depreciated around 2.4% on Thursday, sending the US Dollar lower across the board and triggering a more than 1% decline in the USD/CHF.
Japanese authorities are thought to have acted again on Friday, taking advantage of the thin trading volumes due to the May 1 Labour Day holiday. The USD/JPY lost 0.8% in a few seconds during the early European session in a move that reverberated across the market.
Economic Indicator
Real Retail Sales (YoY)
The Retail Sales data, released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the volume of goods sold by retailers in Switzerland. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri May 01, 2026 06:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.5%
Consensus: 1%
Previous: 0.9%
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
- Australian Dollar drops against its major currency peers while focus shifts to the RBA’s monetary policy.
- The RBA is expected to hike its OCR by 25 bps to 4.35% on Tuesday.
- The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at their current levels during the year.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Friday. The Australian currency is slightly under pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.28% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.25% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.19% | 0.31% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.06% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.13% | 0.14% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.25% | -0.31% | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.03% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
According to the April 27-30 Reuters’ poll, 30 of 33 economists have predicted that the RBA will raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.35%.
Hawkish RBA expectations are backed by accelerating Australian inflationary pressures. The data showed on Wednesday that the annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in March was 4.6%, marginally slower than estimates of 4.7%, but faster than 3.7% in February.
Investors will pay close attention to RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook and how far inflation could accelerate amid elevated energy prices due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
During the European trade, the antipodean trade marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7195, but the Aussie pair is close to its 10-day high of 0.7205 posted earlier in the day.
The US Dollar (USD) is broadly under pressure even as traders seem confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady at their current levels by the year-end.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in higher at 53.0 from 52.7 in February.
Economic Indicator
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue May 05, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.35%
Previous: 4.1%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
- Gold lacks any follow-through buying as bulls seem hesitant amid mixed fundamental cues.
- Iran tensions underpin the USD, though reviving Fed rate cut bets support the commodity.
- The technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent further below the $4,600 mark through the early European session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's move higher. The commodity seems poised to register losses for the second straight week and remains within striking distance of a one-month low, around the $4,510 area set on Wednesday. Geopolitical risks due to stalled US-Iran peace talks remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns. This, in turn, prompted hawkish shift from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues to a later stage. Trump further said that he's going to keep Iran under a naval blockade until the regime agrees to a deal that addresses US concerns about its nuclear program. Furthermore, reports suggest that the US is considering new military strikes on Iran. This fuels worries about a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, which underpins the USD's reserve currency status and acts as a headwind for the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the Fed held its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, and the decision saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Adding to this, the US macro data released on Thursday indicated that inflation accelerated in March and the continued economic resilience, reaffirming bets that the US central bank could keep rates unchanged well into next year. This limits the downside for the US Dollar (USD) and backs the case for further decline in the Gold price.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.7% MoM in March, and the yearly rate accelerated to 3.5% from 2.8% in February. Moreover, the core gauge that excludes volatile food and energy prices climbed 3.2% on a yearly basis, compared to the 3% increase recorded in the previous month. Separately, the advance GDP estimate showed that the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, marking a notable pickup compared to the revised 0.5% growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, the chance of at least one 25-basis-points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in 2026 jumped to over 15% from a meager 1.3% probability the previous day. This holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and could act as a tailwind for Gold. The market focus now shifts to important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Friday. Apart from this, developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Gold seems vulnerable to extend weaken further and retest $4,500
The overnight strength beyond $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) prompted some intraday short-covering. The subsequent move up stalled ahead of $4,650, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from the April swing high. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.33 suggests firm but not overbought momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative. Momentum indicators hint that bullish attempts are tentative despite price holding over the short-term trend reference.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break through the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,651.19, before positioning for an extension of this week's goodish rebound from the $4,500 neighborhood, or a one-month low. The 50% retracement at $4,696.20 could act as the next barrier if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-hour SMA at $4,623.78, and a break below this would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level at $4,595.49, with the broader swing low at $4,505.46 coming into view on sustained weakness.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
