Forex News

Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil initially fell after the US‑Iran memorandum of understanding, as investors faded war‑related economic fears, before reversing to close slightly higher near $79.85. The bank cites US and Iranian officials confirming renewed flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a 60‑day period of free safe passage, while governance and potential future fees remain unclear.

Strait of Hormuz deal supports flows

"Upbeat commentary from US officials also encouraged investors to fade concerns over the economic effects of the war, although an initial tumble in oil prices that followed the signing of the MoU did reverse as the session went on."

"In fact, Brent crude ended up +0.38% higher on the day at $79.85/bbl by the close, after falling as low as $76.45/bbl intra-day."

"An initial decline in oil prices was supported by signals that oil was starting to flow again, with Vice President JD Vance saying yesterday that 12.5mn barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, and that nearly a dozen ships had gone through the US blockade."

"It showed that Iran would make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels, “with no charge for 60 days only”, and that Iran would be in dialogue with Oman “to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz”."

"President Trump focused on the positives of the interim deal, posting “oil is flowing” and also saying that “We expect a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel”."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the Japanese Yen is trading near its weakest levels since 1986, with USD/JPY around 161.38 after touching 161.80 in late US trading. The bank notes growing market chatter about potential official intervention around these levels, especially with poor holiday liquidity, while long-dated JGB yields are 4–8 bps higher after in-line Japanese CPI data.

Yen hovers near multi‑decade lows

"The Nikkei is broadly unchanged though, but all eyes are on the Yen which is broadly unchanged at 161.38 after hitting 161.80 late in the US session last night and within a whisker of the weakest since 1986."

"There's a lot of chatter about intervention likely around these levels, so we'll see if the holiday provides an opportunity to surprise the market and get a bigger move due to the poor holiday liquidity."

"10-30yr JGBs are 4 to 8bps higher this morning."

"There were no scares from the Japanese inflation numbers out this morning though with all measures in line with expectations."

"Headline CPI rose by 1.5% y/y in May, up slightly from 1.4% in the previous month."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in May after falling by a revised 1.0% in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. The market forecast was for a rise of 0.5% in the reported month.

The core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, rose by 1.2% MoM in May, compared with the previous decrease of 0.1% (revised from -0.4%) and the estimated a 0.4% increase figure. 

The annual Retail Sales in the UK came in at 3.2% in May versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0%) and 1.9% expectations.

The annual core Retail Sales jumped 4.6% in the same month, against April’s 1.1%. The reading came in above the consensus of 3.3%.

The British Pound (GBP) attracts some buyers in an initial reaction to the hotter UK Retail Sales data. The GBP/USD pair remains weak, trading 0.08% lower on the day at 1.3195, as of writing.

What do United Kingdom Retail Sales data mean for the British Pound?

The UK Retail Sales report measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as a key indicator of consumer spending.

Stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data suggests consumers are spending more despite economic uncertainties. Traders may expect the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which support the GBP. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected Retail Sales figures generally signal slowing consumer demand and weigh on the Cable by increasing expectations for monetary easing.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains negative outlook in the near term, with oversold RSI condition

In the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps a clear bearish near‑term bias as spot holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average. The pair is pressing the lower side of its volatility envelope, with price now beneath the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to about 30, hinting at oversold conditions but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is now located at the broken lower Bollinger band near 1.3225, followed by the mid-band / 20-day SMA cluster close to 1.3390 and the 100-day moving average at 1.3450, with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3555 acting as a more distant cap. With no meaningful chart support immediately below current levels, any bounce would likely be corrective while the pair trades under these successive resistance layers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)