Forex News
- The US Dollar Index looks set for a negative weekly close as soft US job data weighs on hawkish Fed bets.
- The Fed is still expected to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
- Analysts at ING see little pain ahead for the US Dollar despite the recent NFP-induced decline.
The US Dollar underperforms its major currency peers as traders reconsider hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, following the release of the weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 100.70. The USD Index is down 0.66% from its last week’s closing price of 101.37.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.54% | -1.12% | -0.39% | -0.01% | -0.70% | -1.12% | -0.89% | |
| EUR | 0.54% | -0.64% | 0.15% | 0.49% | -0.18% | -0.64% | -0.41% | |
| GBP | 1.12% | 0.64% | 0.82% | 1.14% | 0.45% | -0.00% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.39% | -0.15% | -0.82% | 0.36% | -0.33% | -0.65% | -0.54% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.49% | -1.14% | -0.36% | -0.69% | -1.01% | -0.81% | |
| AUD | 0.70% | 0.18% | -0.45% | 0.33% | 0.69% | -0.45% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | 1.12% | 0.64% | 0.00% | 0.65% | 1.01% | 0.45% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.89% | 0.41% | -0.23% | 0.54% | 0.81% | 0.21% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike by the end of the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday, the CME FedWatch tool shows.
The US NFP report showed on Thursday that the number of payrolls increased were lower than expected. The NFP data arrived at 57K, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K.
Meanwhile, investors seek fresh cues regarding whether the pain the US Dollar will continue next week.
Analysts at ING said, “The dollar is unlikely to enter a sustained downward trend after Thursday's worse-than-expected US NFP report. The data aren't weak enough on their own to trigger a significant repricing in rate rise bets for the Federal Reserve, he says. While markets scaled back the prospect of imminent tightening, there is still more than 25 basis points (bps) priced in by December. The institution expects the DXY to stabilize in a range of 100.0-101.500 in coming weeks.
Next week, major triggers for the US Dollar will be the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for June and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the June policy meeting.
- Silver gains more than 2% on Friday and trades around $62.35.
- Weaker-than-expected US NFP reduces expectations of Fed rate hikes this year.
- Persistent US-Iran tensions continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances to $62.35 on Friday at the time of writing, up 2.32% on the day, as investors increase exposure to precious metals following the release of a weaker-than-expected US employment report. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data revived expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook, weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and supporting non-yielding assets.
The report showed that the US economy added only 57K jobs in June, well below the market expectation of 110K. In addition, the previous month's reading was revised lower. Following the release, markets scaled back expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see around a 52% chance of a rate hike by September, down from 66% before the data.
The decline in rate hike expectations is putting pressure on the US Dollar, making Silver more attractive for international investors. The move is also supporting Gold (XAU/USD), which remains close to its recent highs, benefiting from the same interest rate backdrop and weaker Greenback.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain elevated after Iran's joint military command warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with a "decisive and swift response." Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iran had accepted "nearly everything we require," highlighting the continued uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the two countries.
With US markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, trading activity is likely to remain subdued. Nevertheless, investors will continue to monitor expectations surrounding the Fed's monetary policy, as well as geopolitical developments in the Middle East, both of which are likely to influence the outlook for precious metals in the near term.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that USD/JPY’s unexpected plunge to 160.62 has shifted the short-term bias lower, even as oversold conditions suggest scope for a rebound within 160.80–161.90 intraday. Over one to three weeks, further downside toward 160.00 is possible only if the pair closes below 160.60, with strong resistance now around 162.45.
Oversold bounce within broader downside risk
"24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “There has been a slight increase in downward momentum, and the bias for USD today is tilted to the downside. That said, any decline is likely to be contained within a range of 162.20/162.75. USD is unlikely to break clearly below 162.20.” We did not expect the steep selloff that sent USD to a low of 160.62. USD rebounded from the low to close at 161.09 (-0.90%). The rebound from deeply oversold conditions suggests USD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, USD could rebound further, but this time around, any advance is likely to be contained within a range of 160.80/161.90."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive USD view from the middle of last month, we indicated two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 162.60) that “the risk remains on the upside, and the next level to watch is 163.00.” USD subsequently rose to 162.83, but in a sudden move yesterday, it plunged below our ‘strong support’ level at 161.80 (low was 160.62). While the sharp decline suggests further downside risk, USD must close below 160.60 before a move to 160.00 can be expected. The likelihood of USD closing below 160.60 will remain intact as long as 162.45 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Wells Fargo Economics sees Canada’s labor market as soft but stabilizing after a strong May rebound, with employment growth under 1% year over year and gains concentrated in full-time jobs. The team expects the unemployment rate to stay within 6.5–7.1% and believes these conditions justify the Bank of Canada keeping policy on hold for now.
Soft but steady jobs back BoC patience
"Canada's labor market remains soft, though weakness earlier in the year was met with a sharp rebound in May. Even so, employment is up less than 1% from a year ago, underscoring the sluggish pace of hiring beneath the month-to-month volatility."
"Labor supply constraints are also easing only gradually. An aging workforce and slower immigration flows should continue to limit labor force growth, helping keep a lid on any significant increase in unemployment. As a result, we expect the jobless rate to remain broadly within the 6.5–7.1% range that has prevailed over the past 12–18 months."
"Following the strongest monthly employment gain since late 2024, some payback in June would not be surprising. Still, our broader assessment is that labor market conditions are stabilizing rather than deteriorating. "
"Wage growth remains positive but is no longer accelerating materially, consistent with labor demand that has softened enough to reduce inflation pressures but not enough to raise meaningful recession concerns. Taken together, the labor market argues for continued patience from the Bank of Canada, keeping policy on hold for the foreseeable future."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale analysts note that Gold has held the $3,930/3,885 support zone linked to the November 2025 low and rebounded sharply. Prices are approaching a descending trend line near $4,300, but the bank sees no clear signs of a large bounce yet, with the confluence of the 50‑DMA and 200‑DMA at $4,380/4,480 flagged as a key hurdle.
Support defended, resistance overhead
"Gold successfully defended the interim support zone at $3,930/3,885, corresponding to the low of November 2025, and has staged a swift rebound."
"It is now approaching the descending trend line drawn since March, currently situated near $4,300."
"Signals of a large bounce are not yet visible."
"It will be important to monitor whether Gold can establish a base and gradually attempt a reversal."
"Confluence of the 50-DMA and 200-DMA around $4,380/4,480 may act as a significant hurdle."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee is slightly positive due to the US Dollar’s broader underperformance.
- Weak US NFP data weighs on the US Dollar.
- Lower oil prices will continue to offer support to the US Dollar.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) in India's afternoon trading hours on Friday. The USD/INR pair drops to near 95.26 due to broader underperformance in the US Dollar, following the release of the weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.78. On Thursday, the USD Index declined almost 0.6% from Wednesday’s closing price.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.19% | -0.35% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.11% | -0.08% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.12% | -0.17% | -0.27% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.24% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.23% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.20% | |
| INR | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.27% | 0.18% | 0.24% | -0.04% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.09% | -0.20% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
US NFP report shows moderate labor demand
The US NFP report showed that employers hired 57K fresh jobs in June, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2% against the estimates and the previous reading of 4.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, rose by 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, faster than the previous reading of 3.4%.
Signs of soft job demand have forced traders to reconsider hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations. Following the US official employment data release, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Considering the latest remarks from Fed officials that their majority priority is taming “high inflation”. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra that inflation remains “too high”, while stressing the need to bring price stability. As expected, Warsh didn't offer any cues regarding the Fed’s future decisions on interest rates.
Oil prices stabilize near pre-Middle East war levels
The MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 appears to have stabilized in the 6,450-6,600 range after falling over 20% in June. Oil prices will likely remain near pre-Middle East war levels, as Qatar has touted “progress” in indirect talks between the US and Iran.
Lower oil prices bode well for currencies from economies, such as India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
FIIs keep lowering stake in Indian stock market
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in the first two trading days of July, offloading their stake worth Rs. 1.452.32 crore. However, the amount of selling has declined as oil prices have returned lower, with investors focusing on business updates from financial services and consumption companies of India Inc.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds 20-day EMA, Descending Triangle breakout
USD/INR trades at around 95.26, holding a modest bullish bias as it consolidates above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly 94.93 and the breakout of the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 54 suggests mildly positive, but not overstretched, momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 94.933, reinforced by the reclaimed downward trend-line region around 94.764, with deeper protection at the structural support zone near 94.065. Looking down, the pair could extend its advance towards 96.00 if it continues to hold the Descending Triangle breakout.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers amid a cheerful market mood.
- Traders trim hawkish Fed bets amid signs of soft US labor demand.
- RBA’s June policy meeting minutes showed that officials kept the door open for more interest rate hikes.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up against its major currency pairs, trading 0.23% higher to near 0.6940 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair gains as a slight decline in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) prospects has lifted market sentiment.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.18% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.30% | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.00% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at around 7,500 at press time, reflecting a risk-on market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.75.
The odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets after the release of weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday, which showed that the economy created 57K fresh jobs in June, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K.
On the domestic front, hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, as released in the June policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, have also strengthened the antipodean. “Will take necessary steps to ensure price stability, including potential rate hikes,” RBA policy minutes showed.
The remarks in RBA policy meeting minutes were in contrast with market expectations, which were signaling that the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle had come to an end.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that weaker US non-farm payrolls and reduced Fed rate hike expectations weighed on the Dollar, supporting the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY fell sharply as markets priced a smaller cumulative hike by year-end and speculated about possible FX intervention. The bank expects US key interest rates to stay unchanged in 2026, limiting upside for USD/JPY.
Yen benefits from softer US data
"US job growth in June fell short of expectations. Only 57,000 new jobs were created, and payrolls for the previous two months were revised significantly downward."
"The Fed funds futures are pricing in 30bp hike by year-end compared to 36bp on Wednesday."
"Pressure for an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in late July continues to ease. We continue to expect US key interest rates to remain unchanged this year."
"The USD weakened, gold rallied, and the yen strengthened on renewed speculation of possible FX intervention."
"In FX, USD/JPY fell sharply by 150 pips to 161.10 on the softer USD and lingering intervention speculation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has staged a sharp recovery against the US Dollar, recovering from its weakest level in 40 years at around 162.50 to the 160.00-161.00 handle.
This reversal is fueled by a double-whammy of macro catalysts: a significantly weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report and intense market speculation of unconfirmed, "stealth" foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF).
As global markets recalibrate their expectations for US monetary policy heading into the second half of 2026, the near-term path for the USD/JPY currency cross is becoming increasingly defined by low summer liquidity and aggressive positioning shakeouts.
Soft US labor data and unconfirmed intervention ambush Yen shorts
According to currency analysts at MUFG, the unexpected cooling of the US labor market (where payrolls grew by a meager 57,000 against a consensus expectation of 110,000) has effectively taken the immediate pressure off the Federal Reserve to consider near-term interest rate hikes.
This macroeconomic soft patch could have created an ideal window for Japanese authorities to quietly step into the market to punish overextended speculative short positions without providing prior warnings.
While it was not officially confirmed whether Japanese authorities intervened yesterday to bring USD/JPY lower, our bias is as such that intervention if it has indeed started may continue for a while more in order to help flush out speculative positions.
Repriced Fed expectations put a firm ceiling on USD/JPY upside
The research team at Commerzbank underscores that the combination of downward job revisions and a soft June US payrolls print has forced fixed-income markets to trim cumulative Fed tightening bets for the remainder of the year. With the Fed funds futures lowering priced-in hikes from 36 basis points to 30 basis points, the macro incentive to buy the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is fracturing.
Pressure for an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in late July continues to ease. We continue to expect US key interest rates to remain unchanged this year.
Has the USD/JPY pair reached a peak?
The banks project that the Yen is likely to maintain its newly recovered footing. MUFG advises market participants to remain highly cautious, noting that an upcoming period of low holiday liquidity in the US provides the perfect tactical backdrop for Japanese authorities to extend its intervention campaign and clean out remaining speculative bears. Commerzbank points out that because US benchmark interest rates are projected to sit completely unchanged for the rest of 2026, the structural upside for USD/JPY is effectively capped, leaving the pair highly vulnerable to further downward adjustments on any upcoming US inflation misses.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on July 3 at 11:15 GMT to say, in the first paragraph, that the Japanese Yen rose up to the 161.00-160.00 area, not down.)
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