Forex News
The US Dollar (USD) edged higher as markets scaled back expectations for Fed cuts in 2026, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near 99, while investors await a busy week of US labor and trade data, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
DXY consolidates around 99 amid technical resistance
"USD was a touch firmer overnight as markets unwound some of its dovish expectations with regards to Fed cut trajectory in 2026. Markets now implied about 2 cuts vs. 3 cuts earlier for 2026."
"DXY last seen around 99 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI showed signs of rising from near oversold conditions. Resistance at 99.10 (50 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low), 99.50/70 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 61.8% fibo), 100.6 (76.4% fibo). Support at 98.40/60 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo)."
"Data releases this week include October JOLTS job openings report (Tuesday), employment cost index (Wednesday) and trade (Thursday). Next week has November NFP and CPI reports to be released on 16 and 18 December, respectively. BLS has announced that Oct CPI and PPI reports will not be released."
The price action continues to suggest a higher New Zealand Dollar (NZD); the levels to watch are 0.5800 and 0.5835, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Price action continues to suggest a higher NZD
24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, NZD rose to a high of 0.5787. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: 'Despite advancing, NZD has not gained much momentum. That said, there is scope for NZD to test 0.5800 before the risk of a pullback increases'. The subsequent price movements did not quite turn out as expected. NZD rose to 0.5792, pulled back to 0.5760 and then recovered to close largely unchanged (0.5777, +0.03%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and today, we expect NZD to consolidate, most likely between 0.5755 and 0.5785."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected a higher NZD since late last month (see annotations in the chart below). In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (05 Dec, spot at 0.5760), we stated that “the price action continues to suggest a higher NZD.” We pointed out that “the levels to watch are 0.5800 and 0.5835.” We will maintain the same view as long as 0.5735 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."
The comments from the ECB's Isabel Schnabel yesterday rippled through interest rate markets around the world. Traders were naturally reassessing that if the next move in ECB rates is up, why is the market pricing in a further 90bp of Fed easing? Those thoughts prompted a 4-5 tick sell-off in Fed Funds futures contracts for late 2026 and the Fed terminal rate for next year has now been re-priced 20bp higher to 3.13% over the last two weeks, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Dollar faces limited downside ahead of FOMC
"The move higher in US rates also weighed on US growth stocks as discounted cash flows were repriced lower. One quick word of caution here. We think Schnabel's remarks were largely sent out as a counterweight to the four to five vocal ECB doves pushing for another rate cut. In other words, she might not privately be as hawkish as her comments suggest."
"Even though short-term euro rates led the global short-end higher yesterday, the news actually weighed on EUR/USD. Here, the reassessment of the Fed easing cycle proved the bigger story. There are now high expectations of a 'hawkish cut' at Wednesday evening's FOMC decision. We had felt that the short-end of the dollar's upside was vulnerable to this FOMC event risk."
"With the FOMC meeting looming, we suspect today's data may not be enough to weigh heavily on the dollar. The focus here will be on US JOLTS data, which we haven't seen since August. These are expected to slow, as will the quits rate and the vacancies to unemployed ratio. We will also see the weekly ADP jobs release data and the NFIB small business optimism survey. The latter could surprise positively. With market pricing of further Fed easing still vulnerable, we suspect the dollar's downside is limited into the Fed meeting. And DXY could have a run up to 99.30 if there are any upside surprises in today's data."
Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in a meeting with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank that Beijing will meet its annual economic target.
Market reaction
The impact of China's Li comments appears to be insignificant on the Australian Dollar (AUD), being a liquid proxy to the Chinese economy. AUD/USD trades 0.3% higher to near 0.6645 as of writing.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | -0.17% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.29% | -0.25% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | -0.08% | 0.16% | 0.01% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.09% | -0.12% | -0.07% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.37% | -0.34% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.16% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.37% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.25% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.18% | -0.04% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.21% | 0.05% | -0.16% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.82 per troy ounce, up 1.18% from the $58.13 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 103.57% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 58.82 |
1 Gram | 1.89 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 71.55 on Tuesday, down from 72.11 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/JPY gives back some of its early gains as BoJ’s Ueda remains stuck to his policy normalization plans.
- A massive 7.6-magnitude earthquake in northeastern Japan weighed on the Japanese Yen.
- The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday.
The USD/JPY pair gives up some of its intraday gains after posting an intraday high around 156.40 during the European trading session on Tuesday. Still, the pair is 0.12% higher at around 156.10.
The pair faces slight selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts bids after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signal that the central bank will stick to its policy normalization path, adding that inflationary pressure continues to accelerate.
“Because we are foreseeing convergence to 2% of the underlying component, we've been adjusting the degree of easing slowly,” Ueda said.
On Monday, investors turned slightly cautious over BoJ’s interest rate hike plans, following the release of the weaker-than-projected Japan Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Revised figures showed that the Japanese economy contracted at a faster pace of 0.6% against the preliminary estimate of 0.4%, a scenario that strengthens the case of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s large fiscal spending plans, and undermines the scope of further monetary policy tightening.
Meanwhile, a massive 7.6-magnitude earthquake in northeastern Japan on Monday also put pressure on the Japanese Yen. The government has ordered households in the region to evacuate the city, while Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) has also issued Tsunami warnings.
On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The major highlight of the Fed’s policy will be the Economic Projections report, as the central bank is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed is expected to attempt a delicate balancing act as the labor demand remains weak and price pressures have remained well above the 2% target for a longer period.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Dec 10, 2025 19:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 4%
Source: Federal Reserve
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