Forex News
Societe Generale strategists note that Gold has extended its decline after breaking the 50-day moving average in March and is drifting toward the late October 2025 lows. While the move looks stretched, they see no clear rebound signals yet. A short-term bounce would face resistance at a recent pivot high, while a break of key support would open lower downside projections.
Key supports and resistance mapped
"Gold has experienced a deeper pullback after breaking its 50-DMA in March. It is gradually drifting toward the late October 2025 lows of $3,930/3,885."
"While the decline appears somewhat stretched, signals of a meaningful rebound are not yet visible."
"Should a short-term bounce emerge, the recent pivot high at $4,100 may act as the initial resistance."
"Below $3,885, the next projections could be located at $3,750 and $3,600."
"A break above this would be important to confirm a larger recovery."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US Dollar recovers after a three-day losing streak to near 101.40.
- Investors shift focus to the US NFP data, which will be released on Thursday.
- The Fed is highly expected to hike interest rates at least once this year.
The US Dollar (USD) rebounds after a three-day losing streak, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading 0.3% higher to near 101.40.
The Greenback bounces back as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.22% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.25% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.19% | 0.10% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.04% | -0.10% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.22% | 0.25% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | -0.27% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The official employment report is expected to show that the economy created 110K fresh jobs, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see an almost 80% chance that the central bank will deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that employers posted 7.3 million fresh jobs, lower than 7.618 million in April.
US Dollar Index technical analysis
The Dollar Index Spot trades higher at around 101.41 at press time. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.56, keeping the short-term trend supported after the recent push higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.83 sits just below overbought territory, suggesting strong but potentially stretched upside momentum as the index consolidates near recent highs.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 100.56, which guards the latest breakout zone and reinforces the constructive bias while price remains above it. Looking up, the 12 May 2025 high at around 102.00 is the key resistance zone; above that it could rise towards 103.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Taylor Schleich and Vy Le highlight that Canada’s 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast has been cut to 0.7%, leaving the economy lagging U.S. growth above 2%. They argue weak activity has offset recent inflation, allowing the Bank of Canada to avoid tightening. With core prices contained and energy risks receding, they expect Canadian inflation to glide back to 2% and policy to stay on hold into 2027.
Growth underperformance supports dovish BoC
"Bloomberg’s June economic survey (released Friday) offers another chance to highlight Canada’s ongoing economic struggles."
"Due to weaker-than-expected performance to start the year, the consensus forecast for 2026 Canadian GDP growth has been cut to just 0.7% (from 1.1%)."
"A weak economy has acted as a counterbalance to the recent inflation pop, allowing the BoC to hold off from tightening."
"And now, with core price pressures in check and energy risks receding, Canadian inflation is on a glide path back to 2%, which should keep the Bank sidelined into 2027."
"That’s hardly a controversial call as all but three (of 19) forecasters see the policy rate on hold this year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has decisively breached long-standing four-decade technical resistance, climbing past 162.00 to reach values not seen since 1986. This historic technical breakdown is unfolding against a complex backdrop of a strong US Dollar, intensifying geopolitical friction between Beijing and Tokyo and persistent capital outflows, effectively neutralizing otherwise strong domestic commercial data and locking the Yen into a deeply defensive posture.
Broad US Dollar strength triggers spillover among Asia-Pacific currencies
Macro strategists at BNY emphasize that the renewed strength of the US Dollar is forcing international investors to prioritize portfolio protection over basic economic fundamentals. They warn that the breach of key technical levels on the major currency crosses acts as a systemic trigger, threatening to send shockwaves well beyond the foreign exchange market and disrupt broader Asian asset classes.
A decisive break above 162 technical resistance would raise the risk of negative spillovers across APAC currencies, equities, and rates.
Geopolitical friction and capital outflows counter robust Japanese trade data
BNY also highlights an escalation in trade disputes, with China blacklisting a wave of Japanese firms and expanding its rigid export control lists. While Japan's domestic commercial sales data for May printed a resilient 5.0% year-on-year increase, these supportive figures are being completely overwhelmed by institutional capital flight and heavily extended short positioning on the Japanese Yen.
[Beijing’s move to place 20 Japanese organizations to its export control list] raises supply chain risks, especially for rare earths and defense manufacturing, and extends tensions linked to Taiwan comments.
Multi-decade technical breakout pushes USD/JPY into uncharted territory
The strategy team at UOB Group notes that while the currency cross is fundamentally overextended, the path of least resistance remains skewed upward. Even though momentum indicators like the daily MACD show a clear negative divergence, flashing an early warning sign that the current rally is structurally fatigued, the breakdown will only face a serious challenge if key short-term moving averages fail to hold.
With USD/JPY in uncharted territory, there are few obvious technical reference points to identify as meaningful resistance. As such, round-number resistance levels may serve as the most practical resistance levels.
Banks anticipate a weak near-term trend for the Japanese Yen
These banks note that the Japanese Yen remains highly vulnerable to extended losses. BNY maintains a deeply cautious stance, clarifying that negative capital flows, persistent short positioning, and escalating Sino-Japanese supply chain risks will keep the currency structurally capped despite solid retail and wholesale data.
Aligning with this soft baseline outlook, UOB Group reinforces that while the technical pace of the Yen's decline appears overstretched, the historic break into uncharted territory above 162.00 means the currency will likely continue to trend lower toward psychological round numbers as long as it preserves its footing above the critical 161.00 support zone.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD retreats to session lows near 1.3220 after rejection at the 1.3270 area.
- UK economy grew below expectations in Q1, according to the final GDP reading.
- US Dollar remains steady not far from YTD highs, amid Fed monetary policy repricing.
The British Pound (GBP) is giving away previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by the downward revision of the UK’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The GBP/USD pair is trading just above session highs at 1.3222 at the time of writing after failing to break above the top of last week’s trading range, at the 1.3270 area.
UK economy grew at a 0.6% pace in the first three months of the year, according to the final estimation released by the Office for National Statistics. These figures have been left unchanged from previous estimates, but the year-on-year rate has been revised down to 0.9%, from the previously estimated 1.1%.
The quarterly expansion has been broad-based, with the Services sector leading the advances, and with manufacturing and construction growing in unison. On the negative side, real household disposable income fell by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year, after rising 1.2% in the last quarter of 2025.
Beyond that, the political impasse in the UK is putting additional pressure on the Cable. Andrew Burnham, the best-positioned candidate to replace Keir Starmer at Downing Street, pledged to “lift the country back up” while sticking to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, but the market awaits his first decisions to take positions on the Pound.
In the US, hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, probably as soon as September, keep the US Dollar buoyed, with investors awaiting key US labour data to confirm those views. The JOLTS Job Openings is expected to show solid employment creation later on the day, although the highlight of the week is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Thursday. June’s payrolls are expected to show an 110K increase in net employment, after 172K in May, to confirm the bright outlook of the US labour market and pave the path for Fed tightening in the coming months.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Jun 30, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 0.6%
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 0.6%
Source: Office for National Statistics
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Jun 30, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 0.9%
Consensus: 1.1%
Previous: 1.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
- USD/CAD holds ground as the US Dollar gained traction on growing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
- CME FedWatch tool suggests that traders are now pricing in above 60% probability of a Fed rate hike by September.
- Declining safe-haven demand for the Greenback was balanced by a weaker Canadian Dollar as oil prices fell.
USD/CAD remains stronger for the second successive day, hovering around 1.4230 during the European session on Tuesday. The currency pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on growing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in above 60% probability of a Fed interest rate hike by September.
Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday's US ADP employment data and Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could reinforce the Fed's "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance, potentially dampening appetite for risk-sensitive assets.
The USD/CAD pair remains resilient, as a decline in safe-haven demand for the US Dollar is offset by a weaker Canadian Dollar (CAD). The commodity-linked Loonie dollar faces downward pressure from lower crude oil prices as market participants weigh in on potential US-Iran peace talks in Doha under a fragile interim ceasefire.
However, while US-Iran diplomatic signals remain highly conflicted, with US President Donald Trump announcing that the two nations were set to hold fresh peace talks on Tuesday, Tehran contradicted this claim, stating that no negotiation meetings are scheduled with Washington. Tehran reiterated its intent to oversee traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, even if Oman opts out of joint oversight.
Traders are also awaiting Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May later this week to gain fresh signals on economic momentum. Market participants continue to expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates on hold through most of the year.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
