Forex News
Eurozone Composite PMI drops to 52.4 in November, misses estimates and October's final reading of 52.5, according to the HCOB report.
The Manufacturing PMI falls below the neutral mark of 50.0, to 49.7. Economists expected the Manufacturing PMI to rise to 50.2 from 50.0 in October. The Services PMI rises slightly higher to 53.1 vs. estimates and the prior reading of 53.0.
“For months the manufacturing sector of the eurozone has been marooned in a no-man’s land of directionlessness. Production has picked up slightly since March of this year, but the overall situation has not improved during this period. Companies continue to face weak demand, which is reflected in a slight decline in new orders. In this environment, companies have reduced their inventories of both intermediate goods and finished goods even more sharply than in the previous month, meaning that the inventory cycle continues to show no signs of turning upward. We are still several months, and possibly even several quarters, away from sustained expansion in the manufacturing sector," Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, said.
Market reaction
EUR/USD faces selling pressure after the flash Eurozone HCOB PMI data release. The major currency pair gives back some of its early gains and drops to near 1.1535. Still, the pair remains marginally higher than Thursday's closing price.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.41% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.20% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.33% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.12% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.05% | -0.29% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | 0.33% | 0.29% | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.22% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.00% | -0.05% | -0.37% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.36% | -0.00% | -0.14% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.09% | -0.22% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | -0.00% | -0.05% | -0.35% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published at 09:04 GMT after the release of the German HCOB PMI data for November
According to flash estimates, the German Composite PMI fell at a faster-than-expected pace to 52.1 in November, but remained comfortably above the neutral mark of 50.0. Economists expected the Composite PMI to come in lower at 53.7 from 53.9 in October.
The overall private-sector activity growth was dragged down by a slowdown in both manufacturing and the Services PMI.
Manufacturing PMI declined at a surprisingly faster pace to 48.4, against estimates of 49.8 and the prior release of 49.6. The Services PMI expanded at a moderate pace to 52.7.
“These figures are a major setback for Germany. In the manufacturing sector, the headline PMI has fallen deeper into contraction territory and now signals a slowdown in this part of the economy. Although production is slightly higher than in the previous month, new orders have now declined sharply after broadly stabilising in October. At least there is still growth in the service sector, but hopes that the rate of expansion would pick up speed here have vanished into thin air with the marked decline in the index. Overall, the German economy is limping towards marginal growth at best in the fourth quarter," Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, said.
Market reaction
EUR/USD turns slightly volatile around 1.1550 after the German HCOB PMI data release.
This section was published at 06:49 GMT as a preview of the German and Eurozone HCOB PMI data for November
HCOB German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview
Germany and the Eurozone have the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November to be released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) on Friday, later this session at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.
HCOB German Composite PMI is expected to inch lower to 53.7 in November, from 53.9 previously. Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI may tick up to 49.8 from 49.6, while Services PMI is expected to ease to 53.9 from October’s 54.6.
HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI is expected to hold steady at 52.5 in November. Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to climb to 50.2 from 50.0 previously, while the Services PMI is expected to remain consistent at 53.0 in November.
How could HCOB German/Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?
The Euro (EUR) may maintain its position if HCOB Manufacturing PMIs come as expected. Any surge in data could strengthen the cautious sentiment surrounding the near-term European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows. Traders will shift their focus toward the US S&P Global PMI data later in the North American session.
The EUR/USD pair holds gains as the US Dollar (USD) eases after September jobs data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 36% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 30% probability that markets priced a day ago.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair trades higher near 1.1540, targeting the immediate barrier at the crucial level of 1.1550, followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1560. Further upwards would support the pair to test the psychological level of 1.1600, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.1609 and a monthly high of 1.1655. On the downside, the initial support lies at the psychological level of 1.1400, followed by the three-month low of 1.1468, followed by the five-month low of 1.1391.
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Last release: Fri Nov 21, 2025 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.4
Consensus: 52.5
Previous: 52.5
Source: S&P Global
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said at 35th European Banking Congress event in Frankfurt on Friday that the central bank will remain vigilant to inflation risks and will adjust interest rates, if needed, to keep inflation at 2% target.
Additional comments
We will continue to adjust our policy as needed to ensure that inflation remains at our target.
Internal barriers in services and goods markets are equivalent to tariffs of around 100% and 65% respectively.
European inaction on reform would be irresponsible.
ECB is playing its part by delivering price stability.
ECB cuts are increasingly supporting financing conditions.
Market reaction
EUR/USD trades 0.17% higher around 1.1550 during the European trading session on Friday.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 11,532.91 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 11,630.05 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 134,518.20 per tola from INR 135,650.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
1 Gram | 11,532.91 |
10 Grams | 115,330.70 |
Tola | 134,518.20 |
Troy Ounce | 358,722.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Oil prices breach the $58,00 line and hit fresh monthly lows at $57.70.
- Hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine are weighing heavily on prices.
- Ukraine president Zelensky has agreed to work on a plan that includes territory concessions to Russia.
Oil prices depreciated for the third consecutive day on Friday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate breaking below the $58.00 line for the first time since late October, as the US administration works to reach a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
News reports affirm that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, has pledged to work on a peace proposal from the US that includes concessions of Ukrainian territory to Russia and a reduction of the Ukrainian armed forces, issues that had been considered a red line for the Ukrainian Government months ago.
This news comes on the day that the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil come into effect, an event already discounted by the market. Investors are now considering a peace deal that would attenuate those sanctions and increase crude supply, with global demand expected to remain weak.
Technical Analysis
on
WTI US OIL has broken support at $58.18, and trades at $57.80, following a 4.5% decline in the last three days. A downward-sloping trend line from $62.27 caps recoveries. The Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 32.90, near oversold and signaling persistent bearish momentum.
Immediate support is at the daily low of $57.70. Further down, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $55.97 low to the $62.33 high sits at $57.34. The deeper level offers nearby support, and a close below it would open the door to further downside.
On the topside, a recovery through $58.63 could expose $60.00, while the descending line near $60.61 would continue to cap. Momentum would improve only once RSI stabilizes back above the midline; otherwise, rebounds would remain limited.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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