Forex News
- The EUR/GBP pair remains steady ahead of the release of the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product data for November.
- Persistent weakness in the UK labor market continues to fuel expectations of a gradual easing in the United Kingdom’s monetary policy.
- The single currency is supported by a relatively neutral backdrop, as the European Central Bank signals no imminent shift in policy.
EUR/GBP trades in a tight range around 0.8660 on Tuesday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of UK growth figures, while continuing to assess the monetary policy outlook of the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
On the UK side, the macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. The BoE is widely seen as being on a path toward gradual policy easing, in an environment where risks to employment remain elevated, even as inflationary pressures stay above the 2% target. Recent labor market surveys show that demand for workers remains subdued, while wage growth continues to be firm, complicating the central bank’s policy trade-offs.
Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for November, scheduled for Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have remained flat after contracting by 0.1% in October. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data for the same period will also be closely watched, as they are expected to provide further insight into economic momentum toward the end of the year.
On the European side, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, with inflation now hovering close to target levels. In this environment, monetary policy is not a major catalyst for the single currency, whose movements continue to be guided primarily by external factors and investor sentiment.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.43% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.48% | 0.01% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.47% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.43% | -0.48% | -0.47% | -0.44% | -0.29% | -0.40% | -0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.44% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.20% | 0.29% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.40% | -0.04% | 0.11% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.12% | 0.35% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/USD missed an opportunity to break above 1.1700, with the euro lacking momentum while the US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further on upcoming inflation data, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Dollar poised for further recovery on US inflation
"Unless the Fed independence trade returns, EUR/USD might have missed its chance of a break above 1.1700 yesterday. We think US inflation can help the dollar recover further, and the euro is lacking any substantial bullish driver at this point."
"The EUR:USD 2-year swap rate gap has rewidened by 9bp since the start of the year, and is at its widest since late November. With more upside risks for USD front-end rates today, we think there could be conditions for a move to 1.160 in the coming days."
- The Pound Sterling holds onto gains near 1.3470 against the US Dollar ahead of the US inflation data release for December.
- Fed’s Bostic warns of high inflation and stresses the need to bring it under control.
- Rising concerns about the Fed’s independence could hit the US sovereign rating.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto Monday’s gains around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
Investors will monitor the US CPI data to get fresh cues on the current price growth in the economy and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. However, the impact of inflation figures is set to be limited on market expectations regarding interest rates in the near term, as Fed officials are more concerned about labor market risks.
In the December policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in an attempt to contain employment risks and stated that there are “no inflation concerns in the long run”. “It doesn't feel like a hot economy,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the decision, adding, “Evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs.”
On the contrary, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned in an interview with radio station WLRN on Friday that inflation is “too high” and the central bank needs to get it “under control”.
The US core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace to 2.7% YoY in December from 2.6% the previous month, with the headline figure growing steadily by 2.7%. Month-on-month (MoM), both headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown by 0.3%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.05% | 0.44% | 0.02% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.48% | 0.04% | 0.24% | 0.08% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.29% | 0.12% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.44% | -0.48% | -0.49% | -0.42% | -0.22% | -0.39% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.42% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.24% | -0.29% | 0.22% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.12% | 0.39% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.37% | -0.05% | 0.15% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: Investors shift focus to UK monthly GDP data
- The Pound Sterling trades broadly firm against its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Tuesday. The GBP gains as market sentiment for currencies that are facing limited fiscal and monetary risks remains upbeat, following criminal charges against Fed’s Powell over mismanaging funds allocated for the renovation of Washington’s headquarters.
- On Monday, US federal prosecutors sent a subpoena to Jerome Powell, which directs an inquiry into his statements in his testimony at the Senate in June 2025 and an examination of his spending records.
- In response, the Fed’s chair stated that these criminal charges are a consequence of the central bank setting “interest rates based on its assessment of the public interest rather than the president's preferences”.
- On the domestic front, investors keenly await the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the factory data for November, which are scheduled for Thursday. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show that the economic growth remained flat after declining 0.1% in October. Meanwhile, MoM Manufacturing Production is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.5%, with Industrial Production remaining flat.
- Meanwhile, the outlook of the US Dollar has become uncertain as market experts believe that criminal charges against Jerome Powell are an attack on the Fed’s independence, a scenario that could hit the US sovereign rating. Analysts at Fitch Ratings have also noted that the central bank’s independence has been a key factor behind the strong US credit rating.
- This week, investors will also focus on the US Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December, which will be released on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD wobbles below 1.3500
GBP/USD trades flat around 1.3463 at the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average at 1.3442 is rising, with price holding above it to preserve short-term upside traction.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 (neutral) indicates steady momentum rather than aggressive trend extension.
Measured from the 1.3791 high to the 1.3012 low, the pair wobbles inside the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3402 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3494. A break above the latter would improve the recovery profile and open the door towards the September 17 high of 1.3726, while a failure to clear overhead resistance would keep the rebound capped and encourage consolidation around the rising average.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Jan 13, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.7%
Previous: 2.7%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- AUD/JPY jumps to near 106.46 amid continued underperformance from the Japanese Yen.
- Japan’s PM Takaichi is expected to dissolve the parliament’s lower house later this month.
- Investors await China’s Trade Balance data for December.
The AUD/JPY pair trades 0.3% higher to near 106.46 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair jumps higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers amid uncertainty surrounding Japan’s political outlook.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.46% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.48% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.48% | -0.49% | -0.44% | -0.28% | -0.42% | -0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.44% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.22% | 0.28% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.42% | -0.02% | 0.12% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.36% | -0.07% | 0.07% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japan’s news agency Kyodo reported earlier in the day that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had conveyed to a ruling party executive her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house at the outset of its regular session scheduled to start on January 23, which strengthens the odds of an early snap election.
Ahead of elections, polls state PM Takaichi to achieve a decisive electoral victory that has propelled hopes of higher fiscal stimulus by the government, Reuters reports. The scenario could be favorable for the Japanese stock market, but negative for the Japanese Yen, assuming big spending plans could derail the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans to remain on the monetary tightening path.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly calm ahead of China’s Trade Balance data, releasing on Wednesday.
AUD/JPY technical analysis
AUD/JPY trades higher near 106.46. The 10-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 103.85 rises and supports the advance as the price holds above it. Staying above this gauge would preserve the uptrend and keep pullbacks contained.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 79.39 is overbought, signaling stretched momentum. Overbought conditions could spur consolidation, yet the bullish bias would persist while the pair respects the rising 10-week EMA. A close below that dynamic support would open room for a deeper retracement.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Gold eases from record highs at $4,625 but remains above December's peak, at $4560.
- Hawkish Fedspeak provided some footing to the USD on Monday's US Session.
- Investors have cut USD shorts, bracing for a srtong US CPI report.
Gold (XAU/USD) posts moderate losses in a calm trading session on Tuesday, pulling back from all-time highs at $4,630, but still above previous highs in the $4,560 area. A moderate recovery of the US Dollar following hawkish comments by Fed Williams and investors’ cautiousness ahead of the UC CPI release is weighing on precious metals on Tuesday.
Markets are bracing for a moderate uptick in inflation, following the November’s unexpected slowdown. The Headline CPI is expected to have grown at a steady 2.7% year-on-year pace, while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to 2.7% from 2.6% last month. All in all, figures that curb hopes of further Fed easing anytime soon.
Technical analysis: Gold corrects lower within a broader bullish trend
XAU/USD bulls met resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the last two weeks' trading range, at the $4,625 area, but the pair remains steady above December's peak at $4,555 so far. The broader bullish structure remains in play with the ascending 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at the $4,440 area.
Technical indicators are turning lower. The 4-Hour RSI, now at 65, remains in bullish territory, but the longer trend shows a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is attempting to cross below the signal line, which would highlight a cooling bullish momentum.
Immediate support is the mentioned December 26 high, at $4,555, ahead of the January 7 high, at the $45000 area, and the mentioned 100-period SMA support near $4,440. Resistances are at Monday's high, at $4625 and the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement of the above-mentioned cycle, at $4,714.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 6.9620 and 6.9820. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD/CNH remains neutral for now
24-HOUR VIEW: "Following last Friday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that 'the underlying tone has softened somewhat, but this is likely to lead to USD trading in a range of 6.9700/6.9860 rather than a continued decline'. However, USD traded in a lower range than expected (6.9630/6.9750). There has been no clear increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range today, most likely between 6.9620 and 6.9820."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have maintained a neutral USD view since last Thursday (08 Jan, spot at 6.9900), and we expected USD to 'trade between 6.9660 and 7.0160'. While USD dipped below 6.9660 yesterday (low of 6.9630), downward momentum only increased slightly. To put it another way, we maintain our neutral view, but we now expect USD to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900."
Copper prices rose toward record levels as ongoing supply concerns coincide with strong US imports ahead of potential tariffs, keeping markets on edge, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
US imports surge ahead of potential tariffs
"Copper rose toward a record amid ongoing concerns over supply, while the US continues to import record volumes ahead of any potential tariffs. Comex Copper inventories reached an all-time high after expanding for 42 straight weeks. But they remain below total warehouse capacity. This is keeping markets outside the US tight."
USD is likely to continue to rise; the level to watch is 158.90, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The level to watch is 158.90
24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the strong rise in USD last Friday, we indicated yesterday that 'strong momentum indicates further USD strength, but deeply overbought conditions suggest that 158.90 is likely out of reach today'. We highlighted that 'any pullback today is likely to remain above 157.40, with minor support at 157.75'. The anticipated advance did not quite materialize, as USD edged higher within a range of 157.52/158.20, closing modestly higher at 158.15 (+0.17%). While upward momentum is beginning to slow, there is scope for USD to rise further today. That said, any advance is likely part of a 157.60/158.40 range. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 158.35."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After USD soared last Friday, we indicated yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 158.00) that 'with rapidly increasing upward momentum, USD is likely to continue to rise'. We pointed out that 'the level to watch is last year’s high, near 158.90'. We will continue to hold the same view as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 157.00 (no change in level)."
Gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,600 an ounce as geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and strong central bank buying fueled demand for safe-haven assets, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Fed independence fears and geopolitics boost metals
"Gold climbed to fresh records as a range of supportive factors converged. They include geopolitical risks, elevated fiscal uncertainty, strong central bank demand, and ongoing concerns about inflation and monetary credibility."
"The US Justice Department threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, reviving concerns over the central bank’s independence. The dollar fell, boosting the prices of metals. Protests in Iran keep geopolitical tensions elevated, while President Trump has reiterated threats to take Greenland, bringing further upside to precious metals."
"Gold surpassed $4,600/oz in yesterday’s trading, while Silver surged past $85/oz. Silver has already climbed around 20% so far this year, following an almost 150% surge last year. This has pushed the Gold/Silver ratio below 60, the lowest level since 2013."
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise further; overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 0.5785. In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Overbought conditions might limit any gains to a test of 0.5785
24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD fell more than we expected last Friday. Yesterday, when NZD was at 0.5730, we pointed out that 'the combination of slowing downward momentum and oversold conditions suggests that NZD is likely to consolidate today, probably between 0.5715 and 0.5750'. However, instead of consolidating, NZD rose to a high of 0.5775. The advance has gathered momentum, and NZD could rise further today. That said, overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 0.5785. The major resistance at 0.5805 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 0.5775; a breach of 0.5740 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (09 Jan, spot at 0.5750), we highlighted that 'downward momentum has increased slightly, and NZD could edge lower toward 0.5715'. After NZD subsequently fell to a low of 0.5712, we highlighted yesterday (12 Jan, spot at 0.5730) that 'while downward momentum remains mild, NZD could continue to edge lower toward 0.5690'. We did not anticipate NZD to recover and break above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5770 (high of 0.5775). The mild downward pressure has eased, and for the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.5720 and 0.5805."
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