Forex News
ING analysts Chris Turner, Frantisek Taborsky and Francesco Pesole note that confirmation of a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have pressured the Dollar as energy prices fall and risk assets rally. They highlight that seven G10 central banks meet this week and argue Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision could cap further DXY losses near the 99.00/99.15 area.
Fed meeting seen capping DXY losses
"News of a US-Iran ceasefire and, more importantly, news that the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen have seen energy prices drop back to early March levels and equities enjoy a decent rally around the world."
"The bigger reaction could come at the short end of yield curves, where central banks have had to clear up the inflationary mess left by the energy spike in April and May."
"The biggest focus this week, however, will be on Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair."
"The market clearly expects a less dovish set of communications (with an easing bias and expected 2026 rate cut removed), but we suspect he will have to talk tough on inflation to avoid upsetting the long end of the bond market."
"Today's DXY drop has been quite modest so far."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 15:
Markets cheer news of the United States (US) and Iran reaching an agreement on a framework deal to end the war at the beginning of the week. Later in the session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June and May Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Later in the week, the Fed will announce monetary policy decisions.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.36% | -0.27% | -0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.17% | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.24% | 0.02% | -0.07% | -0.35% | -0.21% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.32% | -0.14% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.35% | 0.32% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.14% | -0.12% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.41% | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.39% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened as part of the agreement. Iran's deputy foreign minister also confirmed the news on state TV, while the top military command called it a victory for Tehran. The full text of the deal is yet to be published and sides are expected to sign it on Friday. According to the CNN, the ceasefire that started on April 8 will be extended in time and scope, and sides will have another 60 days to continue talks.
In the meantime, Iran’s National Security Council said the US naval blockade will be lifted immediately and the war will end on all fronts, including Lebanon. Still, Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported that there was a number of Israeli attacks in different parts of southern Lebanon, even after the deal was announced.
The US Dollar (USD) Index opened with a bearish gap and was last seen losing about 0.3% on the day near 99.50. Reflecting the risk-positive market atmosphere, US stock index futures are up between 1% and 2% in the European morning on Monday. Finally, Crude Oil prices decline sharply, with the Barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) losing about 5% on the day near $79.
EUR/USD gains traction on Monday and trades slightly above 1.1600, rising nearly 0.4% on a daily basis. European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said earlier in the day that the central bank would be ready to raise interest rates, while warning of upside inflation risks despite the finalization of a deal between the US and Iran.
GBP/USD climbed to a fresh 10-day high above 1.3450 in the Asian session on Monday but retreated below this level by the European morning. The Bank of England (BoE) will conduct its monetary policy meeting later in the week.
USD/JPY trades in a narrow range at around 160.00 in the early European session on Monday. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce a 25 basis points rate hike in the Asian session on Tuesday.
AUD/USD stays in positive territory above 0.7050 in the European morning on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is seen holding policy settings unchanged after the June meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) benefited from the Middle East news opened with a big bullish gap after posting losses in the previous week. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading above $4,300, rising more than 2% on the day.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- GBP/USD hits 10-day highs at 1.3460 but remains below monthly highs, above 1.3500.
- The US Dollar dropped as reports of a peace deal between the US and Iran boosted risk appetite.
- Pound rallies remain limited with the Fed and BoE monetary policy decisions in focus.
The British Pound (GBP) has drawn support from the US Dollar’s (USD) weakness, amid a brighter market mood on Monday, to hit a fresh 10-day high at 1.3460. The pair, however, remains trapped within the trading range from the last four weeks, as investors' focus shifts to monetary policy.
Markets have reacted positively to news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, which would end the 100-day war and allow for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump affirmed that the agreement will be signed on Friday in Switzerland, although details of the deal are scarce so far.
WTI Oil has dropped to its lowest levels in three months, and US Treasury yields extended their reversal, dragging down the safe-haven US Dollar with them. Riskier perceived assets, like the Pound, have jumped from last week’s closing levels. Cable’s upside attempts, however, remain limited, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England’s (BoE) decisions due later in the week.
Fed and BoE decisions coming into focus
The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold on Wednesday. Traders will be looking at the bank’s economic and interest rate projections for changes in the bank’s guidance, and the press conference is likely to be carefully analysed to assess the imprint of the new chairman, Kevin Warsh.
A day later, the Bank of England is also expected to leave interest rates on hold, with the bank’s forward guidance looking increasingly muddy amid high inflation and weakening growth. In this case, the vote split and the minutes of the bank, which will be released immediately, are likely to determine the Pound’s near-term direction.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said during the European trading session on Monday that there seems to be no relief from high inflation in the foreseeable future, despite the finalization of the United States (US)-Iran peace framework. Nagel clarified, “If Strait of Hormuz were to become navigable again soon, it will take months for oil supply to return to normal.”
Additional remarks
ECB keeping all options open for July meeting.
ECB is no longer dealing with short-term supply shock.
Can't exclude second-round effects from energy.
ECB policy settings are still broadly neutral.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate action in the Euro (EUR), following ECB Nagel's comments. At press time, EUR/USD trades 0.35% higher to near 1.1605 amid risk-on market sentiment.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said during the European trading session on Monday that the central bank would be ready to raise interest rates, while warning of upside inflation risks despite the finalization of a deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Remarks
I still see upside risks to inflation.
The ECB is ready to act again if needed.
The ECB can move gradually.
Market reaction
No immediate response by the Euro (EUR), following comments from ECB's Kazaks. While EUR/USD trades 0.35% higher to near 1.1600 amid the risk-on mood.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- Silver price may rise toward the 50-day EMA at $74.55.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 45.05 sits below the midline, indicating subdued upside momentum.
- XAG/USD may find immediate support at the nine-day EMA of $69.16.
XAG/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around $70.30 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the spot price is breaking above the falling wedge pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
The XAG/USD pair is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while clinging to initial support from the nine-day EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.05 sits below the midline, hinting at subdued upside momentum and suggesting that rebounds may struggle while price remains capped under the medium-term EMA.
However, the Silver price may find its initial barrier at the 50-day EMA of $74.55. A break above the medium-term average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the XAG/USD pair to explore the area around the three-month high of $90.03, reached on March 10.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of $69.16. A pullback within the falling wedge would put downward pressure on the Silver price to navigate the region around the lower boundary at $61.80, followed by the six-month low of $61.01, recorded on March 23.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Chris Turner at ING says the Euro’s focus this week is on European Central Bank communication after last week’s rate hike, with markets assigning only a small probability to another move in July. He notes the EUR/USD advance has been underwhelming and suggests the pair does not necessarily need to trade above 1.1650 in current conditions.
ECB communication and EUR/USD levels watched
"Following last week's ECB rate hike, the focus this week will be on whether and when it needs to follow up with a second."
"Presumably, the ECB will want to keep all its options open, but it finds itself in a more comfortable position now that the market prices only a 16% chance of a rate hike in July."
"The EUR/USD rally has been less than impressive so far, and it is not clear that it needs to trade above 1.1650 today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes and to remain data-dependent. With soft Q1 GDP, weak labour data and subdued sentiment, they would fade market pricing for another hike this year and note that Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads suggest AUD/USD could undershoot 0.7000 in the near term.
RBA pause weighs on Australian Dollar
"The RBA is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 4.35% (Tuesday), after delivering three consecutive 25bps hikes since February. The RBA signaled it is now in a data-dependent pause as it assesses how Australian households and businesses respond to this year’s tightening."
"RBA cash rate futures imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%. We would fade the risk of another hike this year. Real Q1 GDP pointed to sluggish underlying demand activity and the April labor force report was poor."
"Bottom line: Australia-US 2-year bond yield spreads suggests AUD/USD can undershoot 0.7000 in the near-term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar has given back some post-payroll gains as optimism over a US-Iran breakthrough weighed on Brent Oil, but the bank still expects USD to edge higher near term. They argue resilient US economic activity and a likely hawkish Fed hold should underpin USD despite easing geopolitical fears.
Hawkish Fed stance underpins Dollar
"USD trimmed some of its post-payroll gains last week as optimism over a US-Iran breakthrough sent Brent crude oil prices tumbling to a three-month low. We are sticking to our view that USD can edge higher in the near-term. Resilient US economic activity in both absolute and relative terms outweigh the drag to USD from easing geopolitical fears."
"The center of gravity on the FOMC has shifted from an easing to a neutral bias as US labor demand has improved and inflation has moved up. As such, the focus will be on the degree of hawkishness and whether it validates Fed funds futures pricing for a 25bps hike by year end or leans against it. The clearest signal will come from the dot plot, which is expected to shift from implying a 25bps cut in 2026 to a median projection consistent with a 25bps hike."
"Bottom line: a hawkish Fed hold should support USD, but Warsh risks spoiling the dollar bull party. Check out our report here to see what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed means for markets beyond this week’s decision."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/IDR falls as easing risk aversion and a US-Iran peace deal cause the US Dollar to weaken.
- US Dollar holds losses on fading safe-haven demand following the US-Iran peace deal.
- The Indonesian Rupiah gains as traders wager that Bank Indonesia would maintain its hawkish tightening bias in June.
USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 17,730 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates on easing risk aversion following the reports that the United States (US) and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict.
The US-Iran deal, announced on Sunday, is set to take effect this Friday. As part of the agreement, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States will lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, allowing the critical Strait of Hormuz to reopen. In a coordinated response, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy announced they are prepared to lift sanctions on Iran following steps taken regarding its nuclear program.
The Greenback struggles as the US-Iran peace agreement eases concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. Market expectations for monetary policy have shifted dramatically. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a nearly 47% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates unchanged in December, a sharp increase from the 28% priced in just last week.
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) finds support as traders wager that Bank Indonesia (BI) will maintain its hawkish tightening bias at Thursday's meeting, following a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes since May. The Rupiah is also drawing sentiment from political backing; last week, Deputy House Speaker Sufmi Dasco urged citizens to sell their US dollars to help stabilize the local currency after it hit consecutive record lows.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Indonesian Rupiah.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | IDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.78% | -0.82% | -0.13% | 0.26% | -0.71% | -1.10% | -1.79% | |
| EUR | 0.78% | -0.07% | 0.74% | 1.05% | 0.07% | -0.31% | -2.04% | |
| GBP | 0.82% | 0.07% | 0.75% | 1.12% | 0.14% | -0.25% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | -0.74% | -0.75% | 0.35% | -0.59% | -1.02% | -2.37% | |
| CAD | -0.26% | -1.05% | -1.12% | -0.35% | -0.90% | -1.36% | -2.53% | |
| AUD | 0.71% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.59% | 0.90% | -0.38% | -2.50% | |
| NZD | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.25% | 1.02% | 1.36% | 0.38% | -1.04% | |
| IDR | 1.79% | 2.04% | 0.00% | 2.37% | 2.53% | 2.50% | 1.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
