Forex News
German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment unexpectedly improves to -10.2 in May, while it was expected to deteriorate further to -19.8 from -17.2 in April.
The ZEW Survey - Current Situation deteriorates further to -77.8 from the previous reading of -73.7.
In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment has also improved. The sentiment data has arrived better at -9.1 than April reading of -20.4. The data was expected to improve nominally to -20.
Market reaction
No meaningful impact of the German sentiment data on the Euro (EUR) was observed. The risk-off market sentiment continues to drive EUR/USD, which is trading 0.3% lower to near 1.1745.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.57% | 0.27% | 0.20% | 0.46% | 0.31% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | 0.26% | -0.02% | -0.14% | 0.14% | -0.02% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.57% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.41% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.02% | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.14% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.46% | -0.14% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | 0.02% | 0.27% | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.05% | 0.22% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.09% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This section below was published at 06:44 GMT as a preview of the German ZEW Survey data for May)
German ZEW Survey Overview
The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index for May at 09:00 GMT later on Tuesday.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to fall to -19.8 in May, from -17.2 in April. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is expected to drop to -77.5 in the reported month, down from the previous reading of -73.7.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in Eurozone is expected to decline to -20, slightly improving from -20.4 previously.
How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to ZEW Survey. The major pair declines as tensions between the United States (US) and Iran remain high, boosting demand for a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD).
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Euro (EUR), with the first upside barrier seen at the May 8 high of 1.1788. The next resistance level emerges at the 1.1800 psychological level, en route to the April 17 high of 1.1849.
To the downside, the May 7 low of 1.1722 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1685, followed by the April 30 low of 1.1655.
(This story was corrected on May 12 at 07:42 GMT to say that the Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to fall to -19.8 in May from -17.2 in April, not from 17.2 in April.)
Economic Indicator
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. A positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists. usually, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Last release: Tue May 12, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -9.1
Consensus: -20
Previous: -20.4
- USD/JPY fades an intraday knee-jerk slide as a broadly firmer USD counters intervention fear.
- Economic concerns stemming from Iran tensions undermine the JPY and support spot prices.
- Traders look forward to the latest US consumer inflation figures for some meaningful impetus.
The USD/JPY pair reverses a knee-jerk decline to the 156.75-156.70 region and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade above mid-157.00s, up for the second straight day, as traders look to the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gets a strong intraday boost after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed through a post on X that the US and Japan took some actions together against excessive volatility in currency markets. Moreover, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura had said last week that Japan is in daily contact with US authorities nd faces no constraints on how often it can intervene in markets. This, along with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish outlook, lifts the JPY and prompts some selling around the USD/JPY pair.
In fact, the Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) April meeting left the door open for an imminent rate hike. The supporting factors, however, were offset by economic concerns stemming from renewed US-Iran tensions, which underpins the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and assists the USD/JPY pair to regain positive traction. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal faded quickly amid major disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that the ongoing US-Iran ceasefire was "unbelievably weak" and was on "massive life support." Adding to this, some Trump aides say that he is now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations than he has in recent weeks. This spark fears of a fresh escalation in the conflict and supports the USD amid hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the US inflation figures before placing fresh bets on the USD/JPY pair.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's policy path amid revived bets for a rate hike by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might infuse volatility in the financial markets and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.32% | 0.61% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.44% | 0.32% | 0.34% | |
| EUR | -0.32% | 0.29% | -0.06% | -0.14% | 0.10% | -0.03% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.61% | -0.29% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.19% | -0.31% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.06% | 0.36% | -0.07% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.14% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.10% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.44% | -0.10% | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | 0.03% | 0.31% | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.34% | -0.02% | 0.27% | -0.07% | -0.13% | 0.09% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
TD Securities economists diverge from consensus by expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold rates in June. They stress the absence of clear second-round effects, anchored inflation expectations, and softening confidence and growth. The outlook hinges on Middle East conflict scenarios and May data, with only one path leading to a June hike.
Data and war scenarios shape decision
"Against consensus, we continue to expect the ECB to hold rates in June."
"We see the following weeks before the June meeting playing out in one of three scenarios, ranging from Middle East conflict resolution to re-escalation and with second-round effects showing varying levels of response."
"Only one of those scenarios would trigger a rate hike in our view, and we are continuing to monitor several data points throughout May."
"Should the conflict resolution remain evasive and May's releases of the above show runaway propagation, we, and more importantly many of the Governing Council members, will concede to the readiness of the ECB to hike."
"But as it stands, the combination of the other two scenarios' odds is still above 50%, suggesting that there is a strong likelihood that the ECB remains on hold in June and continues to monitor for data evidence while letting the tightening financial conditions do the work for a little while longer."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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