Forex News
- The Indian Rupee will likely open on a positive note against the US Dollar on Monday.
- The US Dollar corrects as fears that global inflationary pressures will remain higher have eased.
- Lower oil prices bode well for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports.
The Indian Rupee (INR) is expected to open higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. On Friday, Indian markets are closed for Muharram celebrations.
The USD/INR pair will likely trade lower at the open on Monday, as the US Dollar has corrected over the last two trading days, with fears of persistent global inflationary pressures waning amid lower oil prices.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20. The DXY has corrected from its yearly high of 101.80 posted on Wednesday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.11% | -0.21% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.16% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.08% | 0.13% | 0.07% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | -0.20% | -0.13% | -0.03% | 0.21% | -0.03% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.19% | -0.07% | 0.03% | 0.25% | -0.00% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.41% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.16% | -0.10% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.21% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Oil prices have returned close to pre-Middle East war levels as energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, have increased after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States (US) and Iran.
Rallying oil prices amid the war in the Middle East prompted inflationary pressures globally and forced traders to raise hawkish bets over major central banks.
Meanwhile, the odds of the Fed delivering at least two interest rate hikes this year have been trimmed to 41.7% from 50.2% seen a week ago.
Also, currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to perform strongly when oil prices fall sharply.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that markets are increasingly viewing 162.0 in USD/JPY as a new intervention threshold, helping explain the sharp intraday drop after the pair neared 162. He expects the 162–163 area to be the new zone for potential action, with lower liquidity around the early July US holiday and strong payrolls possibly prompting the Bank of Japan to intervene again.
BoJ intervention risk grows near 162
"Markets may be building some conviction that 162.0 in USD/JPY is the new line in the sand for FX intervention. This – alongside a softer USD environment – may help explain yesterday’s intraday drop after the pair touched a 161.95 peak."
"Our current expectation is that 162-163 is the new intervention area, although the pace and the drivers of the next round of appreciation will determine the urgency and size of interventions."
"The end of next week offers an opportunity for slightly lower liquidity around the 4 July US holiday (Saturday). If US payrolls are strong on 3 July, the Bank of Japan could indeed pull the trigger on new intervention."
"Our dovish Fed call makes us more optimistic that new FX intervention can have a more sustainable negative effect on USD/JPY, but timing remains very tricky; the market may well retain hawkish Fed expectations for a few more weeks, and Japan may be forced to intervene further than once more."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD returns above 1.1400 after bouncing up from 13-month lows at 1.1325.
- A sharp decline in Oil prices has improved market sentiment and is providing some support to the Euro.
- US Dollar dips are likely to remain shallow, amid strong US data and rising Fed tightening bets.
The Euro (EUR) pares previous weekly losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, favoured by a sharp decline in oil prices and a somewhat softer US Dollar. The pair explores session highs above 1.1400 at the time of writing, up from 13-month lows at 1.1325, but maintains its broader bearish trend intact.
The common currency is drawing support from cheaper Oil as the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell below $73.00, returning to pre-war levels. Brent prices are 9% down on the week and have accumulated a more than 30% decline over the last six weeks, relieving pressure on oil-importing Eurozone economies.
Hopes of further ECB tightening ease
Lower crude prices, on the other hand, are easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep tightening interest rates, which might limit the Euro’s recovery. ECB council members have shown mixed views in their most recent public appearances, with Isabel Schnabel reiterating the need to tighten monetary policy further to ease inflation, while Emmanuel Mouling said on Thursday that recent changes are steering the economy toward a “more positive scenario.”
Beyond that, a survey by the ECB released on Friday reveals that Eurozone consumers foresee price pressures easing to 3.5% over the next 12 months, down from the 4.0% level estimated in the previous month. Regarding the economic outlook, Europeans see GDP contracting in the medium term, which might prompt the central bank to adopt a more cautious stance on monetary tightening.
The Euro has also been favoured by a mild US Dollar pullback on Friday, although this trend is unlikely to extend much further. The combination of solid US macroeconomic data and rising bets of Federal Reserve rate hikes is likely to keep US Dollar dips limited for some time.
Data released on Thursday revealed that US inflation remains well above target, despite the recent decline in oil prices. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s inflation gauge of choice, accelerated to a 4.1% year-on-year growth in May, its highest level in three years, endorsing the central bank’s hawkish bias. Later on the day, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index will be observed to confirm those views.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jun 26, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 50
Previous: 48.9
Source: University of Michigan
Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan's Inflation Expectations gauge captures how much consumers anticipate prices will change over the coming 12 months. It comes out in two rounds—a preliminary release that tends to pack a bigger punch, followed by a revised update two weeks later.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jun 26, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.6%
Previous: 4.6%
Source: University of Michigan
- Gold price recovers to near $4,050 as the US Dollar corrects.
- The odds of the Fed delivering at least two interest rate hikes this year have slightly diminished.
- A decline in oil prices has anchored global inflation expectations.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.6% higher to near $4,050 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal recovers after discovering support near $3,960 in the past two trading days. The yellow metal gets some relief after a long underperformance as the US Dollar (USD) loses steam, with traders reconsidering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
Technically, a correction in the US Dollar brings favorable risk-reward opportunities for the Gold price.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20. The DXY has corrected from its yearly high of 101.80 posted on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least two interest rate hikes this year are 41.7%, down from 50.2% seen a week ago.
Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets slightly as oil prices have returned to pre-war levels due to an increase in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that would anchor global inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) in May, as expected, from 3.3% in April.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,050, but maintains a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,232.13. The metal has been retreating from recent highs, and the EMA now acts as overhead supply, hinting that rallies could be capped while below this barrier.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.63 sits just above oversold territory, suggesting negative momentum persists but with some scope for a corrective bounce.
On the topside, the March 23 low at $4,098.88 is the immediate resistance, which the Gold price needs to break for a mean-reversion move to near the 20-period EMA around $4,232. Looking down, the Gold price could extend its decline towards the October 28 low at $3,886.62 and the September 23 high at $3,791.12 if it drops below the June 24 low at $3,959.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/KRW retreat from 1,550 raises speculation about a Korean Won intervention.
- Reuters, citing a local trader, suggests that Seoul might have spent "a lot of US Dollars" to shore up the KRW.
- A 7.6% weekly decline in the Kospi Index has triggered a strong KRW sell-off from foreign investors.
The Korean Won (KRW) trades higher on Friday after a knee-jerk reaction at the 1,550 level against the US Dollar (USD), triggering speculation about an intervention by the South Korean Ministry of Finance. The pair had been dropping steadily throughout the week amid high KRW outflows and the US Dollar's strength.
Comments from South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol earlier this week, affirming that the current USD/KRW level, at mid-1,500, is excessive, considering the country's fundamentals, have boosted rumours that Seoul might have set the 1,550 level as a line in the sand for intervention.
A Reuters report has endorsed these views, citing a local trader who affirms that there was a lot of US Dollar selling for intervention, and stating that “it looked like authorities drew a line again at 1,550”.
Record KRW net outflows in May
The Won had depreciated by about 1.35% earlier in the week, as foreign investors sold 4.6 trillion Won worth of KOSPI shares. These figures follow a report from the Korea Financial Supervisory Service revealing a record net outflow of 47 trillion Won (USD 30.6 billion) of South Korean stocks in May, amid rebalancing operations, mainly from American and European investors.
Currency analysts from Commerzbank note that the Korean Won is the weakest performer among Asian currencies, which is contributing to boost inflation and forcing the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike interest rates at its July 16 meeting. BoK Governor Shiun Hyun-song said earlier in June that the bank must hike interest rates “before it is too late” as risks from the financial and housing markets mount.
OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar (USD) rally has paused as global risk appetite improves, but highlight that sticky United States (US) inflation and steady labour data keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) risks alive. They stress that reduced forward guidance increases data sensitivity, lifting FX volatility and supporting the Dollar, with US growth outperformance and policy divergence seen as key medium-term supports.
USD pause keeps Fed risks alive
"The USD rally paused, with the currency softer overnight as global risk appetite improved. Core PCE rose 0.3% MoM in May, in line with consensus expectations, but at 3.4% YoY remains well above the Fed’s target."
"We recently raised our USD forecasts. A stronger USD is not yet disruptive. The key risk is continued US growth outperformance versus the rest of the world, alongside policy divergence, which could keep funding costs elevated and support the USD."
"This should keep hawkish Fed risks in play, especially as price stability sits at the core of its reaction function. With reduced forward guidance, each inflation, labour and growth release will carry greater weight, likely increasing FX volatility. Jobless claims remain consistent with a stabilising labour market, pointing to decent June payroll growth."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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