Forex News
- US Dollar Index softens to near 99.45 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Rising bets for a December US rate cut weigh on the US Dollar.
- US Initial Jobless Claims declined to the lowest level since April.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a negative note near 99.45 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The DXY extends its downside on the growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a rate cut in the December policy meeting.
The US Dollar retreats from a six-month high reached a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July as traders increase their bets of a Fed rate reduction amid the uncertainty and dovish comments from Fed officials. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly an 83% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, up from 50% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that available data indicate that the labor market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut at the December meeting. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that she supports lowering the interest rate next month because she saw a sudden deterioration in the job market, as both are more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US economic reports released on Wednesday could help limit the USD’s losses. New orders for manufactured Durable Goods Orders in the US rose 0.5% in September, the US Census Bureau revealed on Wednesday. This reading followed the 3% increase (revised from 2.9%) seen in August and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.3%.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 22 dropped by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 versus 222,000 prior (revised from 220,000). This figure came in below the market consensus of 225,000.
- The Australian Dollar remains stronger as Private Capital Expenditure rose by 6.4% QoQ in Q3.
- The AUD strengthened after the latest monthly CPI release added to the RBA's cautious sentiment.
- The US Dollar extends losses amid rising odds of a Fed rate cut in December.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth successive session. The AUD/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid rising odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets in December.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Private Capital Expenditure on Thursday, which rose by 6.4% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, accelerating from a 0.2% gain in Q2 and surpassing the 0.5% expected. On Wednesday, ABS reported the first “complete” monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which climbed by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. The reading surpassed the market consensus of a 3.6% rise and a 3.5% increase prior.
The AUD gained ground after the first monthly CPI boosted the cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook. The RBA is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.6% in December as inflation remains above RBA’s 2–3% target range. RBA officials noted that the unemployment rate has risen slightly, but the job market remains healthy and is expected to continue doing so.
The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures showed, as of November 26, the December 2025 contract trading at 96.41, implying a 6% chance that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 3.35% from 3.60% at its upcoming Board meeting.
US Dollar declines amid increasing Fed rate cut bets
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing. The Greenback extended its losses amid reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative policy stance, driven by reports that the White House has narrowed its search for the next Fed chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Investors see Hassett as supportive of US President Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a more than 84% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from the 30% probability that markets priced a week ago.
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Wednesday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The result was stronger than the market expectation of 225,000. Meanwhile, the 4-week moving average eased by 1,000 to 223,750.
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year in September, matching expectations and August’s reading and suggesting that inflationary pressures have stabilized. Core PPI eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, undershooting the forecast of 2.7%.
- The US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, slowing from the 0.6% increase seen in August, indicating more cautious consumer spending. Separately, the Conference Board reported a sharp deterioration in household sentiment, with Consumer Confidence sliding 6.8 points to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business on Monday that his primary concern is the weakening labour market, adding that inflation is “not a big problem” given the recent softness in employment. He also said the September payrolls figure will likely be revised lower and warned that concentrated hiring is “not a good sign,” indicating his support for a near-term rate cut.
- New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Moreover, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Nonfarm Payrolls data support a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
- The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in November, versus 49.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 52.7 in November from the previous reading of 52.5, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.6 in November versus 52.1 prior.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting last week, indicating that board members signalled a more balanced policy stance, adding that it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected.
- RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted last week that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures.” Hunter noted that monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the central bank won’t react to a single month of figures. She added that the RBA is closely assessing labour-market conditions to gauge supply capacity and is examining how the effects of monetary policy may be changing over time.
Australian Dollar eyes 0.6600 barrier after breaking above nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6530 on Thursday. The daily chart analysis shows the pair holding within a rectangular consolidation zone, signaling a neutral bias. The pair has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), highlighting that short-term upward momentum has turned stronger.
The AUD/USD pair may explore the region around the rectangle’s upper boundary near 0.6630.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could retreat toward the psychological level of 0.6500, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 0.6495. A break below this confluence support area could prompt the AUD/USD pair to test the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6420, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.07% | -0.24% | -0.55% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.11% | -0.24% | 0.01% | -0.17% | -0.48% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.11% | -0.12% | 0.12% | -0.06% | -0.38% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.31% | 0.24% | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.07% | -0.27% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.22% | -0.16% | -0.47% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.16% | -0.31% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.48% | 0.38% | 0.27% | 0.47% | 0.31% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.20% | 0.06% | -0.12% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/CAD may find a primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4059.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index has slipped to a neutral 49.00, indicating a fading bullish impulse.
- The primary support lies around the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 1.4020.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.4030 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical setup reflects a persistent bullish bias, with the pair remaining within its ascending channel pattern.
The USD/CAD pair holds above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3990, while the nine-day EMA at 1.4059 caps the topside. This keeps the broader bias supported by the medium-term average, yet near-term momentum is constrained under the short-term gauge.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.00 (neutral) has eased from previous readings, signaling a waning bullish impulse. RSI near its midline reinforces a balanced backdrop, so a decisive move through either moving average would be needed to set direction.
The USD/CAD pair may find the immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.4059. A break above this level would improve the short-term price momentum and lead the pair to test the seven-month high of 1.4140, reached on November 5. Further advances above this level would support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 1.4240.
On the downside, the initial support appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 1.4020, followed by the psychological level of 1.4000 and the 50-day EMA of 1.3990. A break below this confluence support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to navigate the region around the four-month low of 1.3721.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.27% | -0.58% | -0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.11% | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.49% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | 0.11% | -0.17% | 0.13% | -0.09% | -0.39% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.09% | -0.25% | 0.24% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.18% | -0.49% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.18% | 0.09% | -0.09% | 0.18% | -0.31% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.58% | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.25% | 0.49% | 0.31% | 0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.12% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.24% | 0.05% | -0.15% | -0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD gains strong follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday.
- The overnight breakout through a confluence barrier backs the case for further appreciation.
- A sustained break below the 0.5700 mark is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook.
The NZD/USD pair is building on the previous day's post-Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) move up and gaining strong follow-through positive traction on Thursday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh monthly peak, around the 0.5730 area, during the Asian session, and is further fueled by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The overnight breakout through the 0.5685-0.5690 confluence – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-November fall – favors the NZD/USD bulls. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 76 is flashing overbought conditions and could restrain upside near the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level, around the 0.5745-0.5750 region.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) extends higher in positive territory, hinting at improving momentum. This, in turn, suggests that the NZD/USD pair could extend the recent recovery witnessed over the past week or so, from the 0.5585-0.5580 region, or the lowest level since April, touched last week.
On the flip side, a rejection at the said barrier would keep the intraday rebound contained and shift focus back toward the aforementioned confluence support, just below the 0.5700 round figure. A convincing break below the latter would suggest that the positive momentum has run out of steam and make the NZD/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the corrective decline toward the 0.5625 region en route to sub-0.5600 levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- GBP/JPY retreats slightly from the YTD peak amid a pickup in demand for the JPY.
- Intervention speculations and BoJ rate hike bets provide a modest lift to the JPY.
- The UK budget relief underpins the GBP and helps limit the downside for the cross.
The GBP/JPY cross reverses a major Asian session dip on Thursday and remains well within striking distance of its highest level since July 2024, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade below the 207.00 mark, down 0.10% for the day, though the near-term bias seems tilted in favor of bullish traders.
Investors remain alert amid the possibility that Japanese authorities could step in to stem any further weakness in the domestic currency. This, along with reviving bets for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in December, provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and turns out to be a key factor that prompts some intraday selling around the GBP/JPY cross.
In fact, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi reiterated earlier today that if economic activity and prices develop in line with the outlook, the central bank will gradually adjust the degree of monetary accommodation. Moreover, Japan's Services Producer Price Index suggested that inflation was on the cusp of durably meeting the 2% target and backs the case for a further BoJ policy tightening.
However, the prevalent risk-on environment, along with concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal position amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance, acts as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, gains traction on the back of the long-awaited UK budget, which offered a larger-than-expected fiscal buffer, and supports the GBP/JPY cross.
However, rising bets for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) next month mark a big divergence in comparison to the BoJ's hawkish outlook. This might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the GBP/JPY cross. The market focus now shifts to the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from Tokyo, Japan's capital city, due during the Asian session on Friday.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.27% | -0.62% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.02% | -0.21% | -0.57% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.08% | 0.09% | -0.10% | -0.47% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.16% | -0.01% | -0.41% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.55% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.37% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.62% | 0.57% | 0.47% | 0.41% | 0.55% | 0.37% | 0.56% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.19% | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 11,916.86 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 11,948.32 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 138,998.60 per tola from INR 139,362.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 11,916.86 |
10 Grams | 119,170.70 |
Tola | 138,998.60 |
Troy Ounce | 370,657.30 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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