Forex News
- The Indian Rupee drops against the US Dollar due to consistent FII outflow.
- Oil prices fall back amid hopes of US-Iran war de-escalation.
- Iran confirms it has received proposals from several mediators.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades slightly lower against the US Dollar (USD) in late trading hours on Monday. The USD/INR pair is mildly higher to near 96.46 at the time of writing as the consistent outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market is hurting the Indian currency. The pair struggles to make a comeback even as oil prices have fallen back significantly after a strong opening.
As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 trades flat around Rs. 7,950. The oil price opened 2.6% higher at around Rs. 8,150, the highest level seen in over a month.
Currencies of economies such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to rebound when oil prices start retreating.
Oil prices fall back on hopes of Middle East war de-escalation
During the day, Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, a spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that several mediators have attempted diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire with the US. This has boosted confidence among investors that the process of negotiations between the US and Iran is not dead.
Earlier in the day, the WTI Oil price opened strongly after news on the weekend that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck two oil tankers, which were attempting to transit the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of the global energy supply. The Iranian military stated that the passage will not be safe for petrochemical products or a 'single drop of oil and gas' transit as long as US actions in the region continue. This raised fears that shipowners would be more scared of attempting transit through the Hormuz.
FIIs extend selling spree for straight fifth trading day
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned out to be net sellers in the past few trading days. Recent surging oil prices due to renewed Middle East conflict appear to have dented the sentiment of overseas investors toward the Indian stock market again.
Last week, FIIs remained net sellers on all trading days and offloaded their stake worth Rs. 9,119.76 crore.
Fed to leave interest rates steady next week
The US Dollar gives back its opening gains and turns lower as investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting next week. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 100.70.
As per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the July meeting are 85.6%, up from 65.8% recorded last week. Soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June led traders to reconsider Fed interest rate hike expectations.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains firm above 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades higher at around 96.44, holding a bullish near-term bias as spot trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.66, keeping the recent advance technically supported.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.31 stays in positive territory but below overbought on the daily chart, suggesting upward momentum remains constructive without signaling exhaustion yet.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 95.66, where a break would hint at a deeper corrective phase toward prior price congestion levels not visible in the current indicator set. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 97.10.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened onshore and offshore to support the Indian Rupee (INR) as USD/INR trades close to its all‑time high. Authorities are also easing rules to attract foreign currency inflows, but stronger importer US Dollar (USD) demand and higher Oil prices are offsetting these efforts. Bond yields have risen alongside currency pressure.
FX intervention and policy tweaks in focus
"The RBI has intervened in foreign exchange markets to support the rupee after it slipped toward a record low, selling dollars both onshore and offshore as oil prices surged and pressured sentiment."
"Authorities have also tried to attract foreign currency inflows by easing rules for domestic bond investment and encouraging dollar deposits from non-resident Indians, but the recent measures have not fully offset stronger importer demand for dollars and higher crude driven external pressure."
"The currency fell as 0.2% to 96.4575 per dollar, close to the all-time low of 96.965 reached in late May, while benchmark 10y government bond yields rose 4 basis points to 6.82%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner notes that deteriorating Gulf headlines and higher energy prices are keeping the Dollar supported, even if US Dollar Index (DXY) remains about 1% below its June peak. Softer United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have trimmed the hawkish Federal Reserve narrative, but limited Fed easing is priced. Turner expects USD/JPY to grind higher and DXY to hold near 100.50 before pushing toward 101.30.
Energy shock underpins Dollar resilience
"It is a familiar theme now, but deteriorating news flow from the Gulf is keeping energy prices, short-dated yields and the dollar all relatively well bid."
"It is slightly surprising not to see the dollar a little stronger. The DXY dollar index is still about 1% off its June highs. This probably owes to last week's soft June US CPI and PPI data, which has taken some of the sting out of the hawkish Federal Reserve story."
"Markets now only price about 40bp of Fed easing over the next nine months compared to the 55-60bp of tightening priced for the eurozone and the UK. However, higher energy prices mean that the Fed will have to remain alert, and in this environment we struggle to see that any investors already owning dollars will be inclined to sell."
"Instead, we can probably see pairs like USD/JPY push a little higher. It looks like Japanese authorities have opted not to intervene during today's Marine Day public holiday, and it would not be a surprise to see USD/JPY briefly break above 162.75/85 over coming sessions on the assumption that the Bank of Japan is a no-show on intervention."
"Overall, we expect DXY to continue to find support near 100.50 and push back to the 101.30 area."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI US Oil trades around $81.35 on Monday, down 0.54% on the day after a strong rally in recent weeks.
- The US and Iran continue exchanging strikes, while Tehran says diplomatic contacts remain active through intermediaries.
- ING warns the Oil market remains vulnerable to further supply disruptions as speculative bullish positions continue to build.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $81.30 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.54% on the day as investors take some profits following the commodity's sharp rally in recent weeks. Despite the modest pullback, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide underlying support to Crude prices amid concerns over potential disruptions to global Oil supplies.
The conflict between the United States (US) and Iran remains the main driver of market sentiment. The US has continued its military strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran has maintained its hardline stance over the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route for global energy exports. Any prolonged disruption to traffic through the waterway could significantly tighten global Oil supply.
However, markets also received signs that diplomatic efforts remain underway. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran pursues both military and diplomatic approaches based on its national interests, rejecting the notion that the two are mutually exclusive. He also confirmed that intermediaries have exchanged messages with Iranian officials in recent days in an effort to reduce tensions, suggesting that backchannel diplomacy remains active despite the ongoing hostilities.
Analysts at ING believe the Oil market remains highly vulnerable to further supply shocks. The bank notes that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face significant disruptions, while the expected end of releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve could leave the market more exposed to supply risks. ING also highlighted that speculative investors significantly increased their net long positions in ICE Brent last week, reflecting persistent bullish sentiment despite elevated market volatility.
For now, Oil prices remain caught between easing hopes provided by ongoing diplomatic contacts and persistent concerns that any further escalation in the Middle East could quickly reignite fears of supply disruptions and renewed upside pressure on Crude prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue recent British Pound (GBP) strength looks stretched as markets price in fiscal discipline from the new UK government under Andy Burnham. They note OECD warnings on United Kingdom (UK) fiscal constraints and expect EUR/GBP, which has fallen to a one‑year low, to recover towards 0.87 in coming months, consistent with a broadly range‑bound view on the Pound.
Rebound expected after overshoot
"GBP rallied on reports that Burnham is likely to appoint Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor rather than a candidate perceived as less fiscally conservative. We continue to expect a fiscally responsible shift to the left. However, balancing higher defence spending and reversing cuts to unprotected departments could prove challenging within the existing fiscal framework."
"The OECD echoed these concerns in its latest UK outlook, stressing the importance of fiscal discipline. It highlighted high public debt, elevated interest costs, and rising healthcare and social care expenditures as key constraints on fiscal flexibility."
"Against this backdrop, we believe the recent EUR/GBP correction, which has pushed the cross to its lowest level in a year, is nearing exhaustion. We continue to expect EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.87 in the coming months, consistent with our broader range-bound GBP view. While renewed energy price gains are increasing the risk of further ECB rate hikes, the Bank of England still appears the least likely among major central banks to deliver a rate hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold posts marginal gains on Monday but remains within previous ranges around $4,000.
- Incipient hopes of some de-escalation in Iran have eased risk aversion on Monday.
- XAU/USD approaches the tip of a descending triangle pattern at the $4,000 area.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, as the US Dollar recovery stalled and Oil prices pulled back from highs. The precious metal remains capped below a descending trendline resistance, but downside attempts remain supported above the $3,965 area, thus forming a descending triangle pattern
Simmering tensions in the Middle East keep Gold rallies subdued, but recent comments from Iran’s Foreign Ministry Esmaeil Baghaei, suggesting that efforts to de-escalate the conflict are going on, have provided a glimpse of hope on Monday. Risk appetite added some pressure on the US Dollar and pulled Oil prices down from one-month highs, which is good news for Gold.
The US Dollar also remains weighed by the softer-than-expected US inflation figures released last week, which have prompted investors to dial down expectations of any Federal Reserve monetary tightening in the coming months.
Technical Analysis: Triangle formation and bullish divergence
XAU/USD trades at $4,021, with the bearish structure in play, yet with a triangle formation and some bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting that bears might have run out of steam. The 4-hour RSI has recovered toward a neutral level while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, hinting at building but still constrained buying interest.
Bulls, however, would have to break the top of the triangle, now around $4,050, to confirm a trend shift, aiming for the $4100 area (July 14 high) and the $4,210 area (July 6 high). A break below year-to date lows at $3,941 would expose the October 2025 low, at $3,886. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the late-June downleg, at the $3,830 area, emerges as the next target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer, the seventh PM since Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), delivers his resignation to King Charles at Buckingham Palace. Keir said in his final speech that he fully supports Andy Burnham for the UK’s leadership, The Guardian reported. “So as I now pass the baton to Andy Burnham, I wish him every success. He has my full support,” Keir said.
Market reaction
The British Pound (GBP) reacts positively to the smooth transition of the UK leadership change. At press time, the GBP/USD pair trades 0.15% higher to near 1.3470.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
GBP/JPY wavers around 218.50, with bears contained above previous highs at 218.00.
The Pound picks uop across the board with markets awaiting Andrew Burnham's nomination as next PM.
The British Pound (GBP) is trading practically flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with the GBP/JPY pair wavering around 218.50, holding comfortably above previous highs at the 218.00 area, and with last week’s long.term high at 219.63 within a short distance.
The Pound Sterling remains moderately bid with investors bracing for the nomination of former Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, as the next Prime Minister. Burnham pledged in an interview with The Times newspaper a 10-year plan to “rewire” the UK after having assured markets that he will pursue responsible fiscal policy.
In Japan, markets are closed for the Marine Day holiday, which is keeping market volatility low and the Japanese Yen moving within tight ranges so far.
Technical Analysis: Bulls remain focused on the 219.63 high
GBP/JPY trades at 218.69, retaining a bullish near-term bias with price action supported by an ascending trendline from late June lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) around 58 suggests underlying buying interest, while the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at a shallow corrective pressure rather than a decisive reversal.
Bulls remain capped below session highs at 218.85, although the main focus remains on last week's high, at 219.63. Above here, the next target might be at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the July 10-15 rally, at 220.45.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the confluence between trendline support, now around 218.15, and Friday's trading floor, in the area of 218. A bearish reversal below here would expose the July 7 and 10 lows, near 216.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.31% | -0.19% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.12% | -0.18% | -0.04% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.05% | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.13% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.31% | 0.18% | 0.25% | 0.30% | 0.16% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.09% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.16% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.34% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%. Swaps discount a 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike by year-end and 50 bps over twelve months, still leaving rates near the lower end of neutral. Loose policy while growth runs above potential raises the risk of higher BoJ rate expectations, supporting the Japanese Yen.
Rising CPI and low rates favor Yen
"Headline CPI is expected at 1.7% y/y vs. 1.5% in May, core CPI ex. fresh food is expected at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.4% in May, and core CPI ex. fresh food & energy CPI is expected to print at 1.8% y/y for a second straight month."
"The swaps curve price in a 25bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike by year-end and a total of 50bps of hikes to 1.50% over the next twelve months."
"That would still leave the policy rate closer to the lower-end of the BoJ’s estimated neutral range (1.10%-2.50%)."
"Loose monetary policy when Japan’s economy is operating above potential raises the likelihood of an upward adjustment to BoJ rate expectations in favor of JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro (EUR) assets show emerging value as the European Central Bank (ECB) holds policy and inflation pressures ease, but stresses that Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and earnings must confirm stable growth. Yu expects the ECB to stay cautious on further hikes, with low-yielders struggling while high-yield FX retains appeal against stagflation risks.
ECB caution and Euro asset valuation
"Eurozone, European Central Bank, ECB (Thursday, July 23): The Governing Council is no longer showing a unified front on the outlook as more members doubt whether second-round effects are present. However, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that the current tension in the Strait of Hormuz was essentially a return to March conditions. Vigilance remains, but if the ECB doesn’t signal a clear risk of a severe scenario, the risk of further hikes is low."
"The ECB stays on hold, with lower inflation reducing the urgency around further tightening, but European PMIs now carry the signal. The question is not whether Europe is strong but whether activity is stable enough to support the emerging value case in euro assets."
"The ECB’s communication will remain closely tied to its scenarios. The “severe” scenario remains the tail risk, while the status quo lies somewhere between “mild” and “adverse,” based on the criteria established in March. We see the direction of travel still heading toward “mild,” but it will likely take until September for confirmation as the Governing Council will need to see the next set of forecasts pushing CPI to below 3% for the year."
"If the cost is too high, setting expectations for easing or at least a reversal of the precautionary hike in June is essential. There is a value argument emerging in favor of euro assets, but growth and earnings confirmation is required. Current financial conditions don’t support this case, and we have highlighted in iFlow that Eurozone assets do not face extreme holdings stress."
"We expect European low-yielders to struggle in the current environment. While there is value in high-yield FX and perceived growth assets, it’s difficult to make a strong case for rotation away from APAC and the U.S. until stagflation risk recedes."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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