Forex News
Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-over-year (YoY) in August, compared to a 3.5% growth reported in July, the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Wednesday.
The market forecast was a 4.0% print for the reported period.
The monthly Consumer Price Index climbed by 0.4% in August, compared to the previous reading of a rise of 1.0%, in line with the market consensus.
Meanwhile, the Trimmed Mean CPI increased 0.2% MoM in August. Annually, the Trimmed Mean CPI advanced 3.6% YoY during the same period.
AUD/USD reaction to Australia's Consumer Price Index data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers following Australia's CPI report. The AUD/USD pair is down 0.25% on the day to trade at 0.6970 at the press time.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.33% | 0.01% | 0.29% | -0.03% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.02% | 0.28% | -0.02% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.37% | 0.02% | 0.26% | -0.02% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | 0.32% | 0.37% | 0.34% | 0.64% | 0.29% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.34% | 0.28% | -0.05% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.29% | -0.28% | -0.26% | -0.64% | -0.28% | -0.31% | -0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.29% | 0.05% | 0.31% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.06% | -0.29% | 0.06% | 0.34% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Wednesday.
The reading aligned with the market forecast of 50.1 in the reported month.
Additionally, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.2 in September from 49.0 in August, up from 49.3 expected.
Market reaction
Mixed China PMI data is having limited impact on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). At press time, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.30% to 0.6968, as the AUD is largely hurt by the Australian Inflation data.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- GBP/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery from a two-month low, set on Tuesday.
- Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks underpin the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the pair.
- Traders look to the US PCE Price Index and the final Q2 GDP print for some meaningful impetus.
The GBP/USD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Wednesday, trading just above a two-month low, around the 1.3200 mark, touched the previous day. The fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, though bears opt to wait for important US macro releases before placing fresh bets.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge – will be published later today, along with the final Q2 GDP report. The crucial data will influence market expectations about the Fed policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, the bullish USD undertone might continue to act as a headwind for the currency pair and keep a lid on any attempted recovery.
In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, shot to a fresh high since July 28 on Tuesday amid bets for another Fed rate hike in October. This, along with inflationary concerns, has been pushing US bond yields to multi-year highs and lending support to the Greenback. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff might continue to benefit the safe-haven buck, validating the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair and backing the case for further losses.
Hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the seven-month-old US-Iran war faded after US President Donald Trump turned down a seven-day ceasefire proposal from Iran. Moreover, Qatari efforts to broker a US-Iran breakthrough made little progress this week. In further developments, US officials think Trump could order a return to major combat after the midterms. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play, which favors USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the downside.
GBP/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term tone and a break below the 1.3200 mark will set the stage for a fall towards retesting the year-to-date low, around the 1.3140 region, touched in June. This is followed by the 1.3100 round figure, which, if broken, will set the stage for an extension of the recent downtrend witnessed over the past month or so.
On the top side, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront stiff resistance ahead of the 1.3300 mark. A sustained strength beyond, however, could trigger a short-covering move and lift the GBP/USD pair back to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3448.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Sep 30, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.3%
Previous: 3.3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7351 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7411 and 6.7025 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
