Forex News
- USD/JPY eases on Wednesday as the US Dollar rally loses steam after two days of gains.
- US-Iran war and elevated Oil prices keep market sentiment cautious.
- Stronger US economic data fails to trigger fresh buying in the US Dollar.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback pauses after two days of strong gains, allowing the Yen to recover modestly. However, market sentiment remains cautious amid escalating tensions from the ongoing US-Iran war.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 157.00, retreating slightly after hitting 157.97 on Tuesday, its highest level in over a month.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.85, easing after climbing to its highest level since November 28, 2025, near 99.68.
US economic data released on Wednesday failed to provide meaningful support to the US Dollar. ADP Employment Change showed private payrolls increased by 63K in February, up from 11K previously and above expectations of 50K.
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February, up from 53.8 in the previous month, signaling continued expansion in the sector.
Supporting the upbeat outlook, the ISM Services Employment Index climbed to 51.8 from 50.3, while the New Orders Index advanced to 58.6 from 53.1. However, the Prices Paid Index eased to 63 from 66.6.
Elsewhere, the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to dominate market sentiment as the war enters its fifth day. The escalation has stoked concerns about global inflation, driven by rising Oil prices.
Japan, a major energy importer, could face higher import costs if Oil prices continue to rise. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections. However, he warned that rising global uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East, could affect Japan’s economic outlook.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.00% | -0.41% | -0.01% | -0.29% | -0.57% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.24% | 0.11% | -0.16% | -0.45% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.38% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.56% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.40% | 0.12% | -0.17% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.01% | -0.40% | -0.28% | -0.56% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.16% | 0.28% | -0.12% | 0.28% | -0.28% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.57% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.17% | 0.56% | 0.28% | 0.45% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.29% | 0.10% | -0.17% | -0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD recovers to 1.3361 after touching a session high of 1.3403.
- ISM Services PMI jumps to 56.1 while ADP jobs rise to 63K.
- BoE March cut odds plunge from 74% to 25% amid Oil-driven inflation fears.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground versus the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, though tensions in the Middle East remain high, pushing macroeconomic data releases into the backseat. A better-than-expected employment reading in the US was mainly ignored by traders with their sights set on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3361.
Sterling steadies despite Middle East tensions, with traders focused on Friday’s jobs report
During the European session, GBP/USD edged towards its daily high of 1.3403 amid relief at a possible de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. Nevertheless, Reuters reported that the “US sub sinks Iranian warship,” triggered a leg-down in the pair.
In the meantime, US economic data witnessed the release of the ISM Services PMI for February, which showed that business activity is gathering pace, up from 53.8 a month ago, to 56.1, exceeding estimates for a deceleration to 53.5.
Additionally, the ADP Employment Change report in February showed that private companies hired more people than expected, with the print coming at 63K, well above January’s 11K and beating forecasts of 50K.
In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said that the “government had the right economic plan” for the country. She acknowledged inflationary pressures due to the Middle East conflict, added that the government is on course to “secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.”
The aftermath of the Middle East conflict has money markets showing traders trimmed the odds for a rate cut by the Bank of England. The jump in oil prices pushed rate cut odds from 74% to just 25% as of writing, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Ahead of this week, the UK economic docket is absent. In the US, traders will lean on speeches by Fed officials, and the release of employment data, namely the Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payroll figures for February.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3380. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price slips below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3535, confirming a loss of upside momentum seen after repeated failures along the descending resistance trend line from 1.3869. The recent break under the 1.3498 trend-line resistance-turned-cap underscores sellers’ control, while the longer-term rising support line from 1.3035 still holds below price and tempers the downside outlook into a corrective tone rather than a fully developed downtrend.
Initial resistance emerges at 1.3498, where the broken descending trend line and the nearby moving average group converge, followed by the late-January high near 1.3554. A daily close above this zone would be needed to negate the current bearish bias and reopen the path toward the 1.3650–1.3700 band. On the downside, immediate support lies at the psychological 1.3350 region, ahead of the rising trend-line support projecting from 1.3035, with a decisive break there exposing the next lower area toward 1.3250.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 4 at 16:27 to say that the ADP Employment Change print in January was 11K, not 22K.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.13% | 0.37% | 0.79% | 0.15% | -0.20% | 0.44% | 1.66% | |
| EUR | -1.13% | -0.77% | -0.37% | -0.98% | -1.32% | -0.68% | 0.52% | |
| GBP | -0.37% | 0.77% | 0.23% | -0.22% | -0.56% | 0.08% | 1.29% | |
| JPY | -0.79% | 0.37% | -0.23% | -0.58% | -0.92% | -0.23% | 0.91% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.98% | 0.22% | 0.58% | -0.38% | 0.36% | 1.52% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 1.32% | 0.56% | 0.92% | 0.38% | 0.64% | 1.86% | |
| NZD | -0.44% | 0.68% | -0.08% | 0.23% | -0.36% | -0.64% | 1.22% | |
| CHF | -1.66% | -0.52% | -1.29% | -0.91% | -1.52% | -1.86% | -1.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold rebounds on Wednesday after a 4.4% drop the previous day as the US Dollar pauses following a two-day rally.
- US-Iran conflict supports safe-haven demand, limiting downside in Gold.
- Technically, XAU/USD holds above key support near $5,100 with resistance emerging around $5,200.
Gold (XAU/USD) stabilises on Wednesday, recovering part of the previous day’s sharp decline as the US Dollar (USD) takes a breather after two days of solid gains. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran war keep safe-haven demand in play, helping cushion the downside.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades near $5,141, up about 0.85% on the day after testing resistance around $5,200.
Gold steadies as USD rally pauses amid Middle East tensions
Gold tumbled 4.4% on Tuesday, while Silver (XAG/USD) slid about 8.4%, as a stronger USD weighed on metals. The decline accelerated after prices slipped below key technical support levels, triggering stop-loss orders and broad liquidation. The sell-off, however, proved short-lived as rising global and economic uncertainty kept investors’ risk appetite subdued.
The Middle East conflict enters its fifth day, with the US and Israel stepping up air and missile strikes across Iran. Tehran has responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases and allied facilities in the Gulf.
As the war escalates, disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing energy prices higher, raising concerns about the inflationary impact on the global economy.
US President Donald Trump tried to calm markets, saying the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible” if necessary. In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, he added that Washington would provide political risk insurance for ships traveling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
Fed rate-cut bets slip below 50 basis points by year-end
Growing inflation concerns are also prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Markets now price in at least 50 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, which could act as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Data released on Wednesday showed US private sector employment rose by 63K in February, beating expectations of 50K and accelerating from the 11K increase recorded in January, according to the latest ADP Employment Change report.
The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January, beating expectations of 53.5. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 51.9 in February from 52.3.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD stabilizes near $5,100 after pullback from recent highs
XAU/USD’s near-term outlook appears neutral to mildly bearish after prices retreated from the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart and are now oscillating just below the mid-band. However, the downside remains limited as prices found support near the lower Bollinger Band around $5,057.
The RSI (14) is stabilising after nearing oversold territory but remains below the 50 mark, suggesting momentum remains tilted to the downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line flattens below the signal line, with the negative histogram contracting, which suggests waning bearish pressure.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $5,200, ahead of the mid-Bollinger Band around $5,259, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near $5,461.
On the downside, initial support lies in the $5,100-$5,000 zone. A decisive break below this range could expose the next support levels near $4,850 and $4,650.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman argues that the recent surge in Oil and natural gas prices has derailed expectations for near-term Bank of England rate cuts, with the policy rate now seen on hold through 2026. The energy shock is expected to lift UK inflation back toward 2.7%, keeping the Pound supported as markets reprice BoE easing further out.
BoE cuts pushed into 2027 on energy shock
"The surge in oil and gas prices has reduced expectations of a near-term BoE rate cut. By our calculations, the energy shock could easily add around 65 bps to UK inflation by mid-year, pushing it back toward 2.7% instead of the 2% previously forecast. With hardly any monetary or fiscal room to cushion the blow, the UK economy is exposed until energy markets stabilise."
"The market-implied probability of a Bank of England rate cut this month has therefore fallen sharply, from around 80% to about 25%. All major central banks have seen some repricing, but sterling markets are moving faster because the outcome may depend entirely on Governor Bailey’s vote."
"If the energy shock persists in the coming weeks and months, UK inflation will not fall to 2%. Cutting rates in that environment would risk rekindling inflation expectations, even if unemployment continues to rise. We have therefore removed our call for two rate cuts in the first half of the year."
"The UK economy now looks particularly exposed: the energy shock is squeezing incomes and confidence, while neither monetary nor fiscal policy can respond until markets stabilise. But if tensions in the Middle East ease more quickly than we expect and energy prices do retreat, we will revisit our view and re-introduce rate cuts into the 2026 forecast, given our conviction that the UK labour market is weakening."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- ISM Services PMI advances to 56.1 in February, surpassing consensus.
- The US Dollar keeps its modest bearish stance on Wednesday.
Economic activity in the US service sector gathered momentum in February, with the ISM Services PMI advancing to 56.1 from 53.8 in the previous month, above analysts' expectations of 53.5.
Further poll results found that the Prices Paid Index, a crucial barometer of inflation, ticked lower to 63 from 66.6, while the Employment Index rose to 51.8 from 50.3, indicating a humble improvement in labour market conditions in the service sector. Finally, the New Orders Index strengthened to 58.6 from 53.1.
Market reaction
The Greenback remains modestly offered following the release, as investors continue to closely follow developments on the broader geopolitical landscape. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses part of its recent strong gains, breaking below the 99.00 support level.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
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