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BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that IMM volume is concentrated in commodity currencies, with AUD, NZD and NOK leading recent adjustments. NOK and CAD are seeing outflows linked to Oil sensitivity and modest Norges Bank tightening expectations, while NZD and AUD have underperformed since May. BNY sees scope for non‑energy commodity currencies to outperform, but prefers relative-value trades while Dollar strength endures.
Commodity currencies lead IMM positioning
"Measured by combined net flow scores and volumes, the largest adjustments occurred in commodity-linked currencies. AUD, NZD and NOK were the most actively traded currencies, while NOK, CAD, NZD and AUD all ranked among the top five G10 currencies by flow magnitude. Combined with recent spot performance, the flows point to clear valuation themes emerging around the outlook for energy and commodities."
"Outflows from NOK and CAD are unsurprising. Both currencies are highly exposed to oil prices, and the prospect of a durable ceasefire argues for some derating. NOK is particularly vulnerable as the most overheld G10currency, while expectations for further Norges Bank tightening remain modest."
"By contrast, NZD and AUD have underperformed since early May. Rising input costs have weakened the case for improved terms of trade, while soft Chinese growth has provided little support. Changes in U.S. rate expectations relative to the antipodeans have historically had a large impact on valuations, but IMM positioning suggests much of that adjustment has already occurred."
"We are sympathetic to the view that non-energy commodity currencies could outperform in the near term, but current risk-reward favors relative-value positions while USD dominance persists."
"For example, EUR has moved back into overheld territory on an aggregate basis, as strong net inflows were amplified by a high-volume session. Dollar net flows were broadly neutral, suggesting the currency was used equally as a funding and carry vehicle, which is consistent with current market conditions."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver falls 4.62% on Wednesday to $58.75, marking its lowest level of the year.
- Markets are increasing bets on a Fed rate hike later this year, supporting the US Dollar.
- Investors remain cautious ahead of the US PCE Price Index, a key gauge for monetary policy expectations.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its correction on Wednesday and trades around $58.75 at the time of writing, down 4.62% on the day after hitting a fresh low not seen since December 2025. The white metal remains under significant pressure as expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy stance in the United States (US) continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD).
The latest decline in Silver comes amid an aggressive repricing of interest rate expectations. The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a distinctly hawkish message at its latest meeting, fueling speculation that borrowing costs could rise further in the coming months. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are now assigning a high chance to a rate hike before the end of the year.
This backdrop continues to support the US Dollar, whose strength is weighing on dollar-denominated precious metals. A stronger Greenback makes Silver more expensive for international buyers, while higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver.
US Treasury yields have also moved higher as investors adjust their expectations in response to persistent inflation risks. Concerns about elevated energy costs and the resilience of the US economy have contributed to scaling back hopes for a near-term easing cycle.
Market attention is now turning to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Thursday. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening and add to the downside pressure on Silver. Conversely, softer inflation figures may provide some relief for the precious metal and help stabilize prices following the recent sell-off.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that from the present perspective, further interest rate hikes are needed to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
Key takeaways:
From today’s view, more hiking is needed to get to 2%.
The ceasefire is not a signal for the ECB to ease vigilance.
ECB rates are not restrictive yet.
War, inflation, and growth will set the timing and size of any future hikes.
The economy is showing relative resilience.”
Schnabel flags more hikes as Euro resilience keeps ECB on front foot
The FXS Speech Tracker score of 8.6 versus a historic 7.1 marks a clear hawkish shift in Schnabel’s tone, underscored by the view that “more hiking is needed” and that current ECB rates are “not restrictive yet.” The insistence that a ceasefire would not reduce vigilance, combined with an emphasis on persistent inflation risks, supports expectations for additional tightening and is Euro-supportive on balance.
By stressing that war, inflation, and growth will shape the timing and size of any hikes, Schnabel keeps the door open to a longer and potentially higher-rate path than previously priced. The reference to the economy’s “relative resilience” further justifies scope for more rate increases, reinforcing a hawkish bias that can underpin Euro dips and limit downside in the near term.
- USD/CAD climbs to its highest level since April 2025 as a stronger US Dollar and weaker Oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations contrast with the Bank of Canada's steady policy stance.
- Technically, USD/CAD remains firmly bullish, though an overbought RSI suggests upside may be becoming overstretched.
USD/CAD climbs to fresh highs since April 2025 on Wednesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces a double blow from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and weaker Oil prices.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4235. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 101.64, a level last seen in May 2025.
The US Dollar is drawing support from rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year after Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at last week's monetary policy meeting. Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability and bringing inflation back to its 2% target.
The hawkish Fed outlook diverges from the Bank of Canada's (BoC) steady policy stance, suggesting USD/CAD is likely to remain supported in the near term.
At the same time, Oil prices have retraced almost all of their US-Iran war-driven gains amid the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following last week's 60-day memorandum of understanding. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $70.35, its lowest level since early March.
The decline in Oil prices is adding pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie, given Canada's status as a major crude exporter.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CAD is extending a strong bullish phase while holding well above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered between 1.3769 and 1.3830.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive and elevated, hinting that upside momentum is still in play, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 88 signals extreme overbought conditions, suggesting that the advance could be vulnerable to a corrective pullback even as the broader trend stays constructive.
On the downside, initial support emerges at 1.4110, followed by the 1.4000 horizontal level before the longer-term SMA band around 1.3830-1.3770 comes into view.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 1.4300, where a clear break higher would open the door to further gains, while failure to overcome this barrier would increase the risk of a consolidation or deeper retracement toward the cited supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- DJIA closed near record highs on Wednesday, up roughly 1% after a sharp afternoon rally.
- Cheaper Crude Oil and falling Treasury yields powered the late-day surge.
- Thursday's Core PCE release is the week's main catalyst and the biggest threat to the move.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pushed into fresh record territory again on Wednesday, but the way it got there is worth a second look. The index added roughly 1% and closed near 52,200, just below the all-time high around 52,300. None of that came from earnings or growth surprises; it came from a falling Crude Oil price and a bond market that decided yields had gone far enough.
Crude Oil and softer yields did the lifting
The afternoon move tracked Crude Oil almost tick for tick. Both major benchmarks shed about 4% on the day, as the geopolitical risk premium kept draining out of the energy complex on the back of the Versailles peace framework. Implementation talks have stalled and the fighting in Lebanon has not stopped, so this is a fragile sort of calm; markets are treating it as durable anyway.
A cheaper barrel feeds straight into the disinflation story, which in turn pulled Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year note slipping below 4.5%. That combination flatters the Dow specifically. Its heavy weighting in industrials, financials, and dividend payers responds far more to the cost of money than the technology-led indices do, so a softer yield backdrop is close to tailor-made for this index.
The Dow's lack of chip exposure is suddenly a feature
It also helped that the Dow sat out the worst of this week's technology wobble. The semiconductor selloff that hit the Nasdaq on Tuesday barely touched an index with little chip exposure, and Wednesday's rotation out of stretched tech found a home in the Dow's value and cyclical components.
That edge is about to narrow as Alphabet replaces Verizon in the index, a swap that hands the Dow a far larger technology footprint. For now the change reads as a tailwind, since Alphabet rallied on the news.
Momentum is loud but stretched
The intraday chart is a textbook reversal: the index bottomed near 51,550 in early afternoon trade with the five-minute Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) pinned in the low single digits, about as oversold as the reading gets, before ripping roughly 700 points into the close. That same reading now sits near 88, deep in overbought territory.
On the daily chart the picture is healthier. The daily Stoch RSI is only around 55 and curling up, which leaves room before the trend looks exhausted, and price sits well above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 50,300. The trend structure is firmly higher; it is the speed of the latest leg, not the direction, that invites caution.
Core PCE is the only number that matters
All of this runs straight into Thursday's main event at 12:30 GMT, when the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index lands. Consensus looks for 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year, both a tenth higher than the prior readings, which is the awkward part. The market spent Wednesday celebrating disinflation through a cheaper barrel while the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge is expected to show core prices speeding up, not slowing down.
The headline PCE figures point the same way, with the annual rate seen ticking up toward 4%, and the data lands inside a crowded 12:30 GMT slot alongside final first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), durable goods, and jobless claims, with Fed officials due to speak that evening. With the Fed having held at 3.75% and turned more hawkish in June, a hot Core PCE would hand the doves nothing and could puncture a rally built on the opposite assumption.
Resistance: The immediate ceiling is the record zone, with Wednesday's high near 52,250 and the all-time high around 52,300 sitting just overhead. A daily close above there opens blue sky, where the next round-number magnet is 52,500.
Levels to watch
Support: First support sits at 52,000, the level the afternoon breakout cleared and the most likely spot for dip buyers to step in. Below that, Wednesday's low near 51,550 marks the launchpad for the entire move; losing it would signal the rally has genuinely stalled rather than paused.
Bias: Bullish. The trend, the momentum, and the macro tailwind all point the same way, and pullbacks toward 52,000 read as opportunities rather than reversals. The one thing that changes the call is Thursday's Core PCE: a hot print paired with a close back under 51,550 would be the signal that the borrowed tailwinds have been repossessed.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that MYR has underperformed since the June FOMC as higher US yields and wider US-Malaysia rate differentials weigh on the currency. While the bank’s medium-term constructive view on the ringgit remains intact, it now holds a near-term bearish bias as domestic fundamentals stay solid but US rate dynamics dominate.
Ringgit pressured by US rate dynamics
"For the ringgit, our previous constructive view—anchored on narrowing rate differentials with the US and resilient manufacturing and electronics exports—remains intact over the medium term."
"The recent weakness instead reflects a shift toward US rate dynamics rather than any deterioration in domestic fundamentals."
"Against this backdrop, contained inflation and sustained fuel subsidies reduce the urgency for Bank Negara Malaysia to tighten policy, leaving MYR increasingly exposed as US-Malaysia rate differentials widen."
"This underpins a near-term bearish bias on the ringgit, although we expect macro fundamentals to reassert themselves once US rate pressures ease."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF extends its rally for a sixth consecutive day as Fed rate-hike expectations underpin the US Dollar.
- Traders await the US PCE report due on Thursday for fresh clues on the Fed's policy path.
- Uncertainty over a final US-Iran agreement continues to provide support for the safe-haven Greenback.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) slides to its weakest level in more than ten months on Wednesday as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook boosts the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.8126, extending its gains for a sixth consecutive day.
The US Dollar continues to edge higher, climbing to its highest level since May 2025. Renewed demand for the Greenback comes after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold at last week's policy meeting, where a majority of policymakers signaled that a rate hike later this year may be needed to contain inflationary pressure driven by higher energy costs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 101.36, near its highest level in over a year, since May 2025.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 4.2% in May, more than double the Fed's 2% target. Attention now turns to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due on Thursday. Economists expect the core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to rise to 3.4% YoY in May from 3.3% in April.
A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates in September, with markets currently pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, attention also remains on the ongoing US-Iran talks. US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections, but Tehran denied that any such commitments were made during the latest round of talks.
Until a final deal is reached, geopolitical risks are likely to remain in play, lending additional support to the safe-haven US Dollar.
- Fed hike pricing keeps USD/JPY supported near yearly highs.
- Lower Treasury yields and intervention talk cap upside momentum.
- BoJ minutes show faster-hike pressure building inside the board.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) registers minimal losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday amid mixed risk appetite, with global equities fluctuating between gains and losses, while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East. The USD/JPY pair trades at around 161.75, poised to consolidate for the third straight day, below the yearly high of 161.93 posted on Monday.
USD/JPY steadies as Fed hike bets meet intervention fears
USD/JPY remains bullish after the Federal Reserve (Fed) confirmed its commitment to deliver 2% inflation, as reflected also in the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). US data has been US Dollar supportive, with a healthy labor market and sticky inflation above the 3% threshold. The focus turns to the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, on Thursday.
As of writing, money markets are expecting at least 20 basis points of tightening towards the end of the year. This means there’s an 82% chance of a rate hike in December and a 60% chance of a hold at the July meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.
Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East are weighing on Oil prices, pushing US Treasury bond yields lower, as the US 10-year T-note is plunging nearly 10 basis points down at 4.406%.
US New Home Sales in May fell unexpectedly due to higher mortgage rates, the US Census Bureau reported, with sales dropping -7.3% in seasonally adjusted figures.
In Japan, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she spoke with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week amid growing fears of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
In Japan, the Producer Price Index for services rose by 3.3% in May, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reported, which also released its latest meeting minutes.
The BoJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members called for faster rate hikes, with one member eyeing a rate hike once every few months. Another member suggested that interest rates are below the neutral level and should be raised to neutral “as soon as possible.”
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.79, keeping a clear bullish bias as spot holds comfortably above the triple simple moving average around 159.28 and well over the rising trend-line supports drawn from 139.89 and 152.10. The structure suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, although the Relative Strength Index (14) at 72.02 has pushed into overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly vulnerable to a corrective pause rather than a fresh acceleration.
On the downside, initial protection is seen at the 160.00 horizontal line, ahead of the clustered dynamic support provided by the triple simple moving average near 159.28. A deeper pullback would look toward the rising trend-line floors around 157.41 and 157.09, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge while price holds above these levels, keeping the broader bullish structure in place.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is softer against the US Dollar (USD) but relatively resilient versus G10 peers, with declines tied to shifting Fed expectations and softening United Kingdom (UK) yields after moderating inflation and a weak services PMI. Short-term GBP/USD technicals are bearish, with oversold RSI, little support ahead of 1.30, and a projected 1.3100–1.3200 near-term range and minor resistance above 1.3250.
Pound pressured by softer yields, data
"The pound is soft, down 0.3% vs. the USD and a relative performer against most of the G10 currencies."
"Fundamental releases have been limited, and much of the GBP’s latest decline also appears to be driven by the adverse shift in yield spreads with movement largely driven by the shift in expectations for the Fed."
"Domestic yields have also been softening however, reflecting the recent moderation in inflation data as Tuesday’s unexpected contractionary print in the services PMI."
"GBPUSD short-term technicals: Bearish—the RSI is at the oversold threshold at 30, and spot’s decline has cleared the prior 2026 low offering little in terms of near-term support ahead of 1.30."
"We now see minor resistance above 1.3250 and we look to a near-term range bound between 1.3100 and 1.3200."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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