Forex News
- NZD/USD depreciates as most NZIER shadow board members back holding the Official Cash Rate steady at 2.25%.
- Members cited a supply-driven oil shock, rising 5.6% unemployment, and weak 0.2% GDP growth to support holding rates.
- Fed Governor Waller signaled the central bank should drop its easing bias, complicating the global economic landscape.
NZD/USD depreciates after opening at a higher level from the previous close, still remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.5870 during the Asian hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar struggles against the US Dollar (USD) after a majority of the NZIER shadow board members backed holding New Zealand's Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on the May 27 policy decision.
NZIER shadow board members who favored holding the rate steady emphasized that the current oil price shock is supply-driven rather than demand-driven. They also pointed to softening economic indicators, noting that unemployment is heading toward 5.6% and the previous quarter's GDP growth sat at a sluggish 0.2%. Conversely, a minority of three members argued that monetary tightening should begin immediately, highlighting that real interest rates have remained low or negative for an extended period alongside rising inflation pressures.
The NZD/USD pair holds gains as the US Dollar loses ground on fading safe-haven demand amid increasing optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement, which has eased broader market concerns about inflation and impending Fed interest rate hikes.
An Axios report cited a US official, the United States (US), and Iran are close to signing an agreement that involves a 60-day ceasefire extension. Under this proposed deal, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, and Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway while allowing ships to pass freely. In exchange for these actions, the United States would lift its current blockade on Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, investors are continuing to assess the future outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. This caution comes after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled that he no longer believes the central bank should retain an easing bias in its official policy statement, adding another layer of complexity to the global economic landscape.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8318 compared to Friday's fix of 6.8373 and 6.7880 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran deal hopes weigh on the USD.
- Bets for a rate hike by the Fed in 2026 could limit deeper USD losses and cap gains for the pair.
- The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further appreciating move.
The AUD/USD pair opens with a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week and sticks to intraday gains above mid-0.7100s through the Asian session. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and assists spot prices to move away from the lowest level since April 14, touched last week.
However, the US and Iran remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's nuclear program, keeping a lid on the market optimism. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, should help limit deeper USD losses and cap further gains for the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective pullback from the vicinity of the highest level since June 2022, touched earlier this month. Bulls now await a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before placing fresh bets.
Meanwhile, a mildly positive Relative Strength Index near 58 and a gently positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest upside momentum is building. However, price action remains finely balanced, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond this key moving average before positioning for any further appreciation.
The subsequent move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 50.0% retracement near 0.7175, which is followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7197, with higher hurdles seen at 0.7230 and 0.7270. On the downside, a break below the 38.2% retracement at 0.7152 would expose the 23.6% level at 0.7124, ahead of the stronger structural support around 0.7079.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.46% | -0.44% | -0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.17% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.23% | -0.11% | -0.06% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.08% | -0.29% | -0.26% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.08% | -0.35% | -0.32% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.46% | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.29% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.32% | -0.03% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.31% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.22% | -0.14% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD drifts higher to around 1.3480 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The prospect of a deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite, supporting the British Pound.
- UK Retail Sales fell by the most in nearly a year in April.
The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the British Pound (GBP) as the United States (US) and Iran signal peace progress. Trading volumes are expected to be light due to a market closure for Memorial Day in the US.
Senior US officials said on Sunday that Washington and Tehran are closing in on a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as US President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement, per Bloomberg. Signs of progress in the US-Iran peace deal could provide some support to the riskier asset, such as the GBP against the USD in the near term.
Nonetheless, the threat of renewed war with Iran “still looms large” as Trump still leaves open the opportunity to launch military strikes. The US President stated that the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”
Softer UK Retail Sales data, along with an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to 5.0%, has prompted traders to scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes by December. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the Cable. BoE policymaker Alan Taylor said that an "extended hold" is likely sufficient, adding that second-round inflationary impacts are less severe than those seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion due to a cooling domestic jobs market.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Silver advances due to y easing inflation and interest rate concerns due to optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement.
- The United States and Iran are close to signing a 60-day ceasefire extension agreement.
- Fed Governor Waller signaled the central bank should drop its easing bias, complicating the global economic landscape.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 4% after registering losses in the previous day, trading around $78.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding assets, including Silver, are receiving support from increasing optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement, which has eased broader market concerns about inflation and impending interest rate hikes.
According to a report by Axios citing a US official, the United States (US) and Iran are close to signing an agreement that involves a 60-day ceasefire extension. Under this proposed deal, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, and Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway while allowing ships to pass freely. In exchange for these actions, the United States would lift its current blockade on Iranian ports.
However, complications remain, as Reuters reported, citing Iran’s Tasnim news agency, that the US government is still obstructing certain clauses of the agreement to end the conflict, specifically regarding the release of blocked Iranian assets. Further tempering immediate expectations, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed the New York Times that while an agreement with Iran has garnered regional support, a comprehensive nuclear deal could not be achieved quickly or carelessly.
Meanwhile, investors are continuing to assess the future outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. This caution comes after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled that he no longer believes the central bank should retain an easing bias in its official policy statement, adding another layer of complexity to the global economic landscape.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/CAD retreats slightly from over a one-month high, though the downside seems cushioned.
- US-Iran peace deal hopes weigh on the USD, while a slump in Oil prices undermines the Loonie.
- Traders also appear hesitant amid thin liquidity on the back of a holiday in global markets.
The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a weaker note, eroding a part of Friday's strong gains to the 1.3825 region, or the highest level since April 13. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and stabilize around the 1.3800 round figure amid mixed cues.
The US Dollar (USD) opens with a bearish gap amid reviving hopes for a potential US-Iran peace deal, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices fall sharply in reaction to the optimism over Iran diplomacy, undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the currency pair.
However, the US and Iran remained at odds over key issues, including blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's nuclear program. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran. This, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, should help limit USD losses.
Following sticky inflation data and remarks from Fed officials, traders are heavily pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will raise interest rates by at least a 25 basis point (bps) by the year-end. This might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets, backing the case for the emergence of some dip-buying at the USD/CAD pair at lower levels.
Meanwhile, the liquidity is likely to remain low as global markets are observing several key holidays. This could lead to some volatility and produce short-term trading opportunities. The focus, however, will remain on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. In the meantime, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of the USD/CAD bulls.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- USD/JPY softens to around 158.90 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The US and Iran have made progress, but have not yet finalized a peace deal to end the three-month war.
- Traders are on high alert for another potential intervention from Japanese officials.
The USD/JPY pair declines to near 158.90 during the early Asian session on Monday. Progress in talks between the United States (US) and Iran to bring an end to the Middle East conflict drags the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Senior US officials stated on Sunday that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that an agreement with Iran had garnered regional support, but key issues couldn’t be achieved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin”. His comments came after Trump said he’s “not in a rush to rush into a deal” with Iran to end the three-month war.
Washington and Tehran agreed in principle to open the Strait of Hormuz again. Markets are still awaiting confirmation on whether the US government’s military blockade will be lifted.
Traders are on high alert as the pair moves within the 160.00 critical level, which is widely considered a "line in the sand" where Japanese authorities are expected to step in to conduct foreign exchange interventions. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week that Japan stands ready to act against excessive foreign exchange volatility at any time, while ensuring that any intervention is conducted in a way that avoids pushing up US Treasury yields.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
In an Italian talkshow Che Tempo Che Fa on Sunday, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank is likely to raise the inflation forecast at its monetary policy meeting next month.
A March projection that foresaw price gains of 2.6% this year “will probably be revised,” Lagarde said, adding that the situation “has evolved” since then.
Lagarde declined to say whether an upward revision would translate into a rate increase at the June 11 meeting.
Market reaction
At the time of reporting her comments, EUR/USD is trading 0.35% higher on the day at around 1.1640.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- Gold price jumps to around $4,570 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The US and Iran have both signaled progress in talks to bring an end to the conflict.
- The US PCE inflation data will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,570 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal attracts some buyers on weaker US Dollar (USD) after the reports that the United States (US) and Iran are closing in on a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Washington and Tehran have signaled progress in talks to end the war, even as US President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that there were “good signs” that an agreement to end the conflict is in sight, but warned any such deal would be “unfeasible” if Iran pursues measures to permanently control shipping through the critical waterway.
Uncertainty over a deal between the US and Iran fuels growing fears that prolonged restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will damage global economic growth.
Traders will closely watch the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index report, which is due later on Thursday. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could reinforce a potential rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US oil benchmark – has witnessed a steep bearish opening gap on Monday, now losing nearly 5%, on its way to surrendering the $90 threshold.
The sell-off in the black gold is fuelled by the renewed optimism over a likely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could ease the supply concerns.
The ongoing peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran have revived hopes for a potential peace agreement to be reached in the coming hours.
Despite the optimism, US President Donald Trump’s comments on Sunday suggest that both sides still have some differences, with markets eagerly awaiting further details.
“It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the New York Times an agreement with Iran had garnered regional support, but a nuclear deal couldn’t be achieved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin”.
Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if WTI extends its downtrend as markets pay close attention to the evolving US-Iran peace deal and fresh insights into the likely reopening of the Strait.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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