Forex News
- Gold attracts some buyers on Friday as the USD pauses after a strong rally to a 19-month peak.
- Fed hike bets and geopolitical risk could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for bullion.
- The technical setup further warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful gains.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest recovery gains through the first half of the European session, though it remains below the $3,900 mark and near its lowest level since September 2025, which it touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) takes a breather after a strong three-day rally to its highest level since April 2025, offering some support to the commodity. However, firming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations and Middle East uncertainties continue to support the Greenback. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the precious metal’s intraday move up.
Against the backdrop of hotter-than-expected US October consumer inflation figures, hawkish commentary from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials prompted traders to price in a tighter monetary policy stance. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that a 25-basis-points (bps) rate hike in December is fully priced in, and traders are assigning around a 13% chance of a jumbo 50-bps increase. This, along with the overnight move higher in crude oil prices, led to an extended selloff in US Treasuries, lifting the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond further beyond the 5% threshold and favoring USD bulls.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Thursday issued a fresh warning to Iran and said that those responsible for any attack on American officials would no longer exist. Trump added that he would not hesitate to launch further military action if the situation warranted it. Adding to this, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the US does not need a deal with Iran, adding that those days have long since passed. Moreover, attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, which validates the positive USD outlook and should cap the Gold price.
Moving ahead, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) highlights Friday's economic docket. Furthermore, speeches from influential FOMC members would influence expectations about the Fed's policy path. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might continue to infuse volatility in global financial markets and drive USD demand, providing some impetus to the commodity. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register weekly losses. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of USD bulls, suggesting that any subsequent rise in the gold price is more likely to be sold into and remain capped.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair maintains a near-term bearish bias following the recent repeated failures near the $4,150 horizontal resistance and a break below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, momentum indicators stay weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the oversold band at 35.43 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding in negative territory with the line around -15.22. This, in turn, hints that downside pressure is still dominant despite the early signs of exhaustion.
Hence, any further move up could face initial resistance near the $3,960 area ahead of the $4,000 psychological mark and the 100-period EMA at $4,037.06. A sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish setup and open the way for a broader corrective bounce towards the $4,100 round figure en route to the $4,150 barrier. On the downside, the $3,865-$3,855 region, or the year-to-date low, could act as an interim demand area, which, if broken, will set the stage for an extension of a well-established downtrend from the August swing high.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index (YoY)
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 13, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 6.6%
Previous: 6.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
- GBP/JPY lacks a firm intraday directional bias and oscillates in a range on Friday.
- Intervention fears and BoJ rate hike bets support the JPY, capping spot prices.
- The wide Japan-UK rate differential acts as a tailwind and limits the downside.
The GBP/JPY cross seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses on Friday, trading around mid-211.00s during the early European session, just above a one-and-a-half-week low, which it touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a one-week-old range as traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in again to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).
In fact, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned on Thursday that recent currency movements had been too fast and reminded markets that it was too early to forget the summer intervention. Moreover, Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signaled that authorities are monitoring one-sided, swift FX moves, adding that the government will respond appropriately to currency volatility and will engage with the US Treasury. Adding to this, rising bets for an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) support the JPY and cap the GBP/JPY cross.
Investors, however, remain uncertain about the likely timing and the pace of BoJ rate hikes. This, along with the wide interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, including the UK, keeps the so-called carry trade active and holds back traders from placing bullish bets on the JPY. The BoJ policy rate is at 1.25%, while the Bank of England (BoE) raised its base rate to 4.00%, leaving a gap of 275 basis points. Moreover, traders are pricing in another BoE rate hike in December, preserving the yield advantage for the GBP and supporting the GBP/JPY cross.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- The US Dollar Index holds onto its 19-month high of 103.24 on hawkish Fed rhetoric.
- Fed’s interest rate hike prospects have boosted by hawkish Fed speak and hot US CPI figures.
- The breakout of the Bullish Flag pattern backs the possibility of a fresh upside leg.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades firmly against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Friday, hovering near its 19-month high of 103.24 posted the previous day.
The DXY has outperformed this week as accelerating United States (US) inflationary pressures have boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pace up the interest rate cycle.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.74% | 0.87% | 0.96% | 0.96% | 1.06% | 0.42% | 2.05% | |
| EUR | -0.74% | 0.15% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.43% | -0.31% | 1.32% | |
| GBP | -0.87% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.28% | -0.46% | 1.17% | |
| JPY | -0.96% | -0.21% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.51% | 1.05% | |
| CAD | -0.96% | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.07% | -0.56% | 1.13% | |
| AUD | -1.06% | -0.43% | -0.28% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.73% | 0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | 0.31% | 0.46% | 0.51% | 0.56% | 0.73% | 1.65% | |
| CHF | -2.05% | -1.32% | -1.17% | -1.05% | -1.13% | -0.80% | -1.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Dollar momentum builds as hawkish Fed rhetoric meets firm us inflation
Strategists at RBC highlight that “U.S. core-inflation pressures are building, while the labour market remains historically tight,” reinforcing the backdrop for further Dollar strength. ING’s FX team adds that “the combination of hawkish Fedspeak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the dollar,” with DXY now “back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels” and “real front-end rate differentials continuing to fuel strong dollar momentum.” They stress that “importantly, this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in.”
Looking ahead, ING says “we continue to see upside risks for the dollar in the coming days,” noting that “the Fed's Chris Waller has put a 50bp December move on the radar, and that should keep markets biased towards hawkish interpretations of incoming data.” With “December pricing remains at 28bp, leaving scope for further adjustment,” ING argues that positioning and rate expectations still offer room for the Dollar’s rally to extend.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 103.17. The near-term bias is bullish, as price holds the breakout of the Bullish Flag chart pattern decisively, and well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 102.17.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 65.16 remains in positive territory but shy of overbought, hinting that bullish momentum is firm yet not extreme.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 102.17, followed by the former channel ceiling around 102.04 and the channel floor near 100.81 if a deeper correction unfolds. On the topside, the next notable structural hurdle is 104.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
RBC Economics argues the case for higher Federal Reserve (Fed) rates is stronger than for the Bank of Canada (BoC), citing rising US core inflation, robust Q3 GDP and a historically tight labour market. The bank expects a cumulative 50 basis points of additional Fed tightening, including a December hike, and sees risks skewed toward an even larger US hiking cycle as growth and inflation outperform.
Fed tightening risks skewed higher
"Rising core-inflation pressures, strong Q3 GDP growth, and a historically tight labour market continue to point to a need for additional Fed tightening to contain inflationary pressure."
"We expect both the BoC and the Fed to hike in December."
"Risks are relatively balanced around our BoC forecast but tilted toward a larger hiking cycle in the United States."
"US growth and labour-market momentum continue. GDP forecasts have been revised higher again, averaging 2.4% in 2026 and 2027, up from previous forecasts of 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively. We continue to expect the unemployment rate to average near historical lows, at 4.2% in both 2026 and 2027."
"We continue to expect a cumulative 50 basis points of additional Fed tightening in this cycle, including one hike at the next meeting in December. Recent producer-price data suggest that further inflation pressures are building in supply chains. We see risks of a larger tightening cycle than currently assumed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD depreciates as strong US CPI data lifts December Fed rate hike odds to 87%.
- Traders await Friday’s US PPI report for further inflation clues, with headline prices projected to rise 6.6% annually.
- New Zealand's Unemployment Rate climbed to an 11-year high of 5.7%, dampening bets for aggressive RBNZ rate hikes.
NZD/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 0.5540 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) remains steady on persistent inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week has reinforced forecasts for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, particularly after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a 50-basis-point increase should be considered if core inflation stays elevated.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 87% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the central bank's December 8–9 meeting, alongside a 13.13% probability of a half-point increase.
Traders are now turning their attention to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for further clarity on the Fed's rate path, with October headline PPI expected to rise 6.6% year-on-year and core PPI projected to increase 5.0%.
New Zealand's Unemployment Rate climbed to an 11-year high of 5.7%. This weak labor data has dampened bets for aggressive RBNZ rate hikes, weighing on the kiwi dollar.
NZD supported as New Zealand election outcome backs RBNZ’s single mandate
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that New Zealand’s ruling center-right coalition “holds a one-seat majority following Sunday’s election, with final results due November 27.” They note that the incumbent coalition led by the National Party “wants to stick to the RBNZ’s sole price stability mandate, which has been in place since December 2023,” in contrast to the Labour Party, which “ran on a proposal to return to a dual inflation-employment mandate.” BBH suggests this policy divergence is helping underpin NZD, as the current framework is seen as limiting the risk of a more dovish stance from the central bank.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- USD/JPY pulls back from two-week highs above the key 160.00 level but remains steady above 159.80.
- Japanese Yen's weakness has prompted Prime Minister Takaichi to launch a clear intervention warning.
- Surging US yields and dovish BoJ comments have hammered the Yen this week.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) hesitates a few pips away from the key 160.00 level against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, weighed by a strong rebound in US Treasury yields, which has prompted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to launch an intervention warning earlier in the day.
The USD/JPY pair accelerated its decline this week, as Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers opened the door for a jumbo rate hike in December, as US inflation data released on Tuesday confirmed that price pressures keep escalating well above the 2% bank target for price stability.
Fed officials bring a 50-basis-point hike to the table
Before that, Fed Governor Christopher Waller affirmed that with elevated inflation, “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk". A few days later, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shared that view, assuring that “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.”
The CME’S FedWatch tool shows that markets are now pricing a 13.3% chance of a half-point hike at the December 9 meeting, compared to 0% last week. This has boosted the yield on the two-year Government bond by 35 basis points this week and the benchmark 10-year yield by 25 basis points, back above the 5% level.
US Treasury yields’ rally has boosted the US Dollar across the board, crushing the Japanese Yen, which has also been hit by dovish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) official Taichiro Asada, who warned on Thursday about the economic risks of raising borrowing costs too fast
Against this background, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said earlier on Friday that Tokyo authorities are “closely monitoring markets” and that the government “will strive to preserve orderly forex markets,” a warning that the Ministry of Finance is ready to intervene to support the Yen. Takaichi also said that she is in contact with US financial authorities, suggesting the possibility of a coordinated action like the one that boosted the JPY in late July.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Silver struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick, hitting a fresh one-week low on Friday.
- The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciating move.
- Any attempted recovery move is likely to be sold into near the trading range support breakpoint.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick to the $50.80 region and drops to a fresh one-week low during the early European session on Friday. The white metal, however, lacks follow-through and currently trades around the $50.00 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias following the recent repeated failures to make it through the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the previous day's breakdown below the $51.00 mark, or the lower boundary of a one-week-old trading range, validated the negative outlook amid negative momentum indicators on the said chart.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.64 stays in bearish territory, hinting at sustained downside pressure without yet reaching oversold conditions. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stands in negative territory with the latest reading at -0.21, reinforcing the notion of a weak recovery profile and favoring further consolidation or slippage rather than a decisive rebound.
Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the trading range support breakpoint, around the $51.00 round figure, where any attempted recovery would likely face its first meaningful supply zone. A move above this should allow XAG/USD to retest the 100-period EMA near $52.86. A sustained strength beyond the latter would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more durable recovery.
On the downside, bearish traders could aim to challenge the $49.00 support area, while keeping an eye on whether RSI drifts into the oversold zone that could eventually slow the decline. This is followed by the year-to-date low, around the $48.60-$48.55 region, touched last week, which, if broken, would set the stage for an extension of the downtrend from the late August swing highs – levels above the $71.00 mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- US index futures decline as hot CPI data drives 87% odds of a December Fed hike ahead of PPI data release.
- Wall Street closed lower Thursday; Dow Jones dropped 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined.
- Nvidia edges higher after-hours as CFO Colette Kress becomes interim CEO following Jensen Huang’s resignation.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.15% to trade around 52,310 during the European hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.16% to trade near 7,600, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.30% to trade around 28,300.
US stock futures declined amid persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations for tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week reinforced forecasts for a rate hike in December, particularly after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a 50-basis-point increase should be considered if core inflation remains elevated. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 87% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the central bank's December 8–9 meeting, alongside a 13.13% probability of a half-point increase.
Investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for further clarity on the Fed's rate path, with October headline PPI expected to rise 6.6% year-on-year, and core PPI projected to increase 5.0%. This comes after Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow falling 0.36%, the S&P 500 dropping 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.39%.
Market sentiment also remains cautious due to leadership turmoil at Nvidia after CEO Jensen Huang stepped down following reports of extramarital affairs. However, Nvidia shares rebounded nearly 1% in after-hours trading, recovering some of Thursday’s losses as investors assessed the leadership transition, with CFO Colette Kress stepping in as interim CEO.
AI stocks FAQs
First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve.
There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine.
Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 13:
The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stays in a consolidation phase above 103.00 after reaching its highest level since April 2025 at the end of a three-day rally. The European economic calendar will feature September Trade Balance data and a revision to the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Friday. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.66% | 0.84% | 0.91% | 0.96% | 1.00% | 0.34% | 1.94% | |
| EUR | -0.66% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 0.45% | -0.30% | 1.29% | |
| GBP | -0.84% | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.26% | -0.50% | 1.09% | |
| JPY | -0.91% | -0.28% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.56% | 0.96% | |
| CAD | -0.96% | -0.32% | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.64% | 1.01% | |
| AUD | -1.00% | -0.45% | -0.26% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.75% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | -0.34% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.56% | 0.64% | 0.75% | 1.61% | |
| CHF | -1.94% | -1.29% | -1.09% | -0.96% | -1.01% | -0.75% | -1.61% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the absence of high-impact data releases on Thursday, the USD benefited from risk-aversion and continued to gather strength against its rivals. At the same time, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield climbed above 5% on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and further supported to the currency.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that they don't "need a deal with Iran." Oil prices edged higher following this remark and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained more than 2% on the day. In the meantime, Wall Street's main indexes remained under modest bearish pressure after the opening bell, following the news of Nvidia's (NVDA) longtime CEO and co-founder Jensen Huang resigning as CEO in the face of board scrutiny over several affairs. Early Friday, US stock index futures trade marginally lower.
Fed's Williams flags resilient US economy but stresses persistent inflation risks
New York Fed President John Williams delivered a speech that is modestly more hawkish relative to the historical average, with a 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 6.1/10 baseline, underscoring a resilient and robust US economy that is strengthening but not overheating. The emphasis that inflation remains “stubbornly persistent and elevated” and that the central bank “still has work to do” to reach the right monetary policy stance reinforced a data-dependent but clearly tightening-biased tone.
Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized that while AI is only modestly adding to current inflation, technology-driven momentum and sticky services prices heighten upside inflation risks. The focus on a “bias” toward further tightening, comfort with a September hike, and the view that inflation pressures are “up, not down” underscored a Fed stance that prioritizes bringing inflation down even as potential future AI-led productivity gains are acknowledged as a possible disinflationary force.
Strategists at National Bank of Canada underline that the Dollar “remains supported by persistent inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening.” They note that “following October’s pause, another firm CPI report reinforces our expectation for tighter policy before year-end,” adding that a “deterioration in global risk appetite could provide further support through safe-haven demand.”
Gold lost more than 2.5% on Thursday and touched its weakest level since October 2025 near $3,850. The precious metal corrects higher on Friday but remains well below $4,000.
EUR/USD stages a rebound in the European session and trades above 1.1050. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to post weekly losses.
GBP/USD moves sideways in a tight channel below 1.3250 on Friday after posting losses for three consecutive days. On a weekly basis, the pair is down more than 0.8%.
USD/JPY rose to its highest level since early September above 160.00 in the Asian trading hours but corrected sharply heading into the European session. At the time of press, the pair was virtually unchanged on the day at 159.80. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Friday that the government is in close contact with US financial authorities on the currency market and reiterated that officials will strive to preserve an orderly foreign exchange market.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- AUD/USD attracts some sellers to around 0.6785 in Friday’s early European session.
- Traders are pricing in 14.5% odds of a large Fed hike at the December meeting, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
- The pair keeps a bearish vibe in the near term, with the price holding below the 100-day SMA.
- The immediate resistance level to watch is 0.6800; the first downside target is seen at 0.6668.
The AUD/USD pair extends the decline to near 0.6785 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Growing bets of a half-point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders brace for the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is due. later on Friday.
US Treasury yields rose in the previous session after President Donald Trump said that Washington does not need a deal with Iran, as traders weighed the chance of a larger-than-usual Fed rate increase next month.
Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that a 50-basis-point rate hike should be considered if core inflation remains elevated.
Traders are now pricing in nearly an 85.5% chance of a US rate hike when the Fed next meets December 8-9 and put odds of a half-point hike at 14.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"If we do see a further sharp selloff in equity markets, that could be a negative for the US Dollar," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"But I think there's a possibility it can continue its strong momentum in the near term, particularly with Fed officials speaking next week. If we see further support for a 50-basis-point hike, there's further upside in the Dollar too,” Carol added.
The release of the RBA meeting Minutes and the FOMC Minutes will be the highlights next week, as they might offer clearer signals on future rate paths.
Australia inflation expectations stay elevated versus RBA target
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that November inflation expectations in Australia “stayed at 5.3%, so over double the RBA’s mid-point target,” underscoring the persistence of price pressures that remain well above the central bank’s desired level.
Williams flags resilient US economy but warns inflation still too elevated
Fed’s Williams delivered a speech that scored 7/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 6.1/10 historical average and signaling a slightly more impactful tone relative to the established baseline. Emphasis on a “resilient” and “robust” US economy, alongside warnings that inflation remains “stubbornly persistent and elevated,” underscores a stance that the central bank still has work to do and will need to act over time to bring inflation back to 2%, while clearly distinguishing a focus on inflation rates rather than attempting to push overall price levels lower at the risk of poor economic conditions.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.08 points to 147.47, indicating a minor pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. This suggests that, although the tone was somewhat stronger than the established baseline in the FXS Speechtracker, broader Fed communication still reflects a robust anti-inflation stance even as marginal sentiment cools slightly.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD holds a negative outlook under the key resistance levels
In the daily chart, AUD/USD extends its slide beneath the 20-day simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, which keep the pair firmly capped in a bearish near-term bias. Price now sits just under the lower Bollinger Band, signalling persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 31.9 hovers near oversold territory, hinting that selling momentum is stretched but not yet decisively reversing.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges at the lower limit of Bollinger Band around 0.6800, followed by the midline of the Bollinger Bands near 0.6960, and the 0.7000 psychological level. Above that, the 100-day SMA at 0.7025 forms a more substantial barrier, with the upper Bollinger Band near 0.7120 marking a higher resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to soften the broader bearish structure.
On the downside, the January 19 low of 0.6668 acts as an initial support level for the pair. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose the December 18, 2025 low of 0.6592, followed by the November 5, 2025 low of 0.6458.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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