Forex News
- The Australian Dollar trades lower against its major currency peers amid a risk-off mood
- Iran’s refusal to have another round of talks with the US has renewed Middle East tensions.
- Iran closes the Hormuz again due to the continuous US blockade of Iranian sea ports.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers during the late European trading session on Monday, trading 0.15% lower against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7155. The antipodean comes under pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have diminished the demand for riskier assets.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.05% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.10% | 0.01% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.00% | 0.17% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.03% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.07% | 0.12% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.55% lower ahead of Monday’s opening, reflecting a risk-off market mood. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gives back its early gains and ticks marginally lower around 98.20.
Iran’s refusal to rejoin the table with the US for extending negotiations regarding a permanent ceasefire and its decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again have prompted dismal market sentiment.
During the day, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now. Over the weekend, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) also reported that Tehran refuses to sit down again with US delegates for another round of talks due to Washington’s “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”.
Iran closed the Hormuz again, over the weekend, after a temporary reopening, as part of retaliation against the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t make a deal soon.
On the domestic front, investors await the confirmation hearing of US President Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Chairman, on Tuesday.
(This story was corrected on April 20 at 12:18 GMT to remove, in the second paragraph, a wrong reference to the S&P 500 futures price).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate as higher energy prices lift the headline rate, while food disinflation offsets some of the impact. Core measures are seen rising but remaining contained, leaving the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April communication broadly unchanged despite the recent Oil shock and Iran-related geopolitical tensions.
Energy lifts headline, core stays contained
"Headline CPI is set to accelerate to 2.5% y/y in March as prices rise 1.1% m/m, underpinned by the sharp increase for energy (market: 2.6% y/y, 1.1% m/m). Gasoline and other energy products should contribute ~0.7pp to the headline print (m/m), while a sharp deceleration for food products provides a key offset to the larger contribution from energy."
"We do not expect large spillovers from energy prices to core inflation, with CPI-trim/median forecast to rise 0.2% m/m and hold at 2.3% y/y. That would still mark the largest m/m increase since October, with 3m core inflation rates set to jump from 1.0% to 1.7%. However, we don't think that's enough for the Bank of Canada to change its messaging in April after pledging to look through the near-term impact of higher oil prices."
"The Q1 Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations will provide a closer look into business/consumer sentiment ahead of the April Bank of Canada meeting when published on Monday. However, these surveys will be more backward looking than usual given most interviews would have taken place before the US strikes on Iran and subsequent increase to global energy prices."
"So while BOS/CSCE may reveal some further normalization of firm-level/consumer inflation expectations, we do not expect any impact on the Bank of Canada's deliberations in April. We also look for a mildly dovish tone across other BOS components as the unwind of recent labour market gains and pullback in Q4 GDP take some pressure off capacity indicators."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD edges lower around 0.5880 at the start of the week.
- Rising tensions between the US and Iran revive demand for safe-haven assets.
- Markets now focus on New Zealand inflation data and US Retail Sales due on Tuesday.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Monday, slipping by 0.06% at the time of writing as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens modestly against the US Dollar (USD).
The pair remains under pressure as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support demand for the US Dollar. The United States (US) and Iran are once again at odds after Tehran accused Washington of violating the ceasefire through the continuation of a maritime blockade. Iranian officials also signaled that no new negotiations with the US are currently planned, which has revived risk aversion in global markets.
In addition, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on sentiment. Iran briefly indicated a possible reopening of the strategic maritime route before reversing the decision, maintaining the blockage following US and Israeli strikes earlier this year. These developments have reinforced the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is trading slightly higher around 98.30, reflecting renewed demand for defensive assets. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have also warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could push energy prices higher, increasing inflation risks and potentially forcing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
On the domestic front, New Zealand trade data provided mixed signals. The country posted a monthly trade surplus of NZD 698M in March, reversing a deficit of NZD 365M recorded in February. Exports rose 7.3% YoY to a record NZD 7.94B, while imports increased 9.6% to NZD 7.25B. However, the annual trade balance still showed a deficit of NZD 3.19B.
Developments in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, also remain in focus. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its one-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3% and its five-year rate at 3.5%, signaling a cautious stance as authorities continue to monitor the economic outlook.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch New Zealand’s first-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Tuesday. On the US side, the March Retail Sales data will also attract attention, as investors assess the strength of consumer demand and its potential implications for the Fed’s monetary policy path.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.05% | 0.17% | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.23% | 0.15% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.13% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.19% | 0.02% | -0.10% | -0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.10% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.02% | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.13% | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.09% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF bounces up from 0.7775 but remains capped below 0.7845.
- Markets have turned cautious as the US-Iran peace talks wobble.
- The pair maintains its bearish trend from late-March highs intact.
The US Dollar (USD) bounced up from 0.7775 lows against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, but the ensuing recovery attempts have remained below the 0.7845 level on Monday, which leaves the immediate bearish trend in play.
Market sentiment has turned cautious on Monday, as hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war wane, which is providing marginal support to the US Dollar. Iranian authorities are threatening to skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after the US seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday
Investors, nevertheless, remain faithful that these moves are part of a complex process, and that Washington and Tehran will redress the situation and return to the negotiating table this week. This is keeping most US Dollar pairs at levels relatively close to last week’s peaks.
Technical Analysis: Treading water around $0.7800
The USD/CHF reversal from the 0.8050 area in late March has found support on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, drawn from the January 27 low to the March 31 high, near 0.7775, but the near-term bias remains negative, as upside attempts remain capped below the 0.7845 area.
Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced out of oversold territory toward the low-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hovers marginally above zero with a shallow positive profile, which only hints at fading downside pressure rather than a decisive turn higher.
The pair should breach the mentioned 0.7845 level (April 16 high), to set its focus on the April 8 and 10 highs, at the 0.7930 area, and the descending trendline, now around 0.7950. On the downside, below the mentioned 0.7775, the next target is the area between 78.2% retracement, at 0.7700, and the February 27 low, at 0.7670.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 0.11% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.18% | 0.03% | -0.13% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.00% | 0.00% | 0.18% | 0.21% | 0.07% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.11% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.27% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that post‑energy shock JGB curve steepening has exposed Bank of Japan (BoJ) credibility risks, with markets increasingly uneasy that the BoJ is behind the curve. They expect a 25 bp hike on 28 April, but warn that a hawkish hold could see USD/JPY push into the 160s and trigger Ministry of Finance intervention back toward 155.
BoJ hike seen critical for yen
"The BoJ faces a growing credibility challenge. The damage is evident in the sharp steepening of the JGB curve after the energy shock triggered by the US–Iran war—an outcome that contrasts starkly with the post‑February curve flattening seen across other G10 markets."
"Market unease is building that the BoJ is falling behind the curve, intensifying pressure for an April rate hike to reassert policy credibility."
"Our base case is a 25bp hike on 28 April, though current pricing still reflects a meaningful risk of a hawkish hold."
"Failure to hike would likely see USDJPY push higher, potentially into the 160s, prompting Ministry of Finance intervention aimed at driving the pair back towards 155. Recent forceful messaging from Finance Minister Katayama suggests the authorities are prepared to act."
"Even so, we remain cautious on the JPY and retain our end-2026 USDJPY target of 155."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Pound Sterling trades mixed against its peers while investors await a string of UK data.
- The UK’s headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% in March.
- Iran refuses to return to the table for another round of talks with the US.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain volatile as a slew of United Kingdom (UK) economic data is scheduled to be published this week.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.00% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.09% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.01% | 0.26% | 0.14% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.18% | 0.03% | -0.13% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.22% | 0.07% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.26% | -0.20% | -0.03% | -0.22% | -0.13% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.10% | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.13% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.28% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Investors will pay close attention to the UK employment data for THE three months ending February, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for March to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.
The UK employment data on Tuesday is expected to show that the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8%. The ILO Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 5.2%.
The inflation report on Wednesday will likely demonstrate a strong growth in the headline CPI by 3% YoY, against 3% in February, in the wake of higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East. On Friday, the UK Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen 0.2% on a monthly basis after declining 0.4% in February.
Meanwhile, the recent commentary from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, suggests that the central bank will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting on April 30. Bailey said that there is “no rush” for monetary policy adjustments despite a negative energy shock.
This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be released on Thursday.
Against the US Dollar (USD), the Pound Sterling recovers a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near 1.3515. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains uncertain amid uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the day that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.
(This story was corrected at 11:30 GMT to say in the third paragraph that Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, rose at a moderate pace of 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.8% and not the previous reading of 3.5%)
Economic Indicator
Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
The Average Earnings Excluding Bonus release is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy; it is released by the UK Office of National Statistics. It can be seen as a measure of growth in "basic pay". Generally, a positive result is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 21, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.5%
Previous: 3.8%
Source: Office for National Statistics
- Silver consolidates below $80 after peaking at one-month highs above $83 on Friday.
- The precious metal trims gains as investors pare back hopes of a swift end to the US-Iran war
- Technically, XAG/USD remains trading within the upside channel from late March lows.
Silver (XAG/USD) has retreated nearly $4 from the monthly high right above $83.00 hit last Friday, as the precious metal consolidates immediately below the $80.00 level, with investors returning to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), with the Middle East peace process under pressure.
A spokesperson from the Iranian foreign ministry affirmed earlier on Monday that Tehran will skip the second round of negotiations scheduled to resume in Pakistan on Tuesday. This comes after the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel by the US army on Sunday, which was condemned by Tehran as an “aggressive act” and a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Technical Analysis: XAG/USD remains within an ascending channel
XAG/USD trades at $79.50, consolidating near the bottom of an upward channel from March 23 lows. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are broadly neutral as investors await further developments before making investment decisions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flatlined around the 50 line, highlighting a balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, hinting that bullish attempts could face headwinds.
Initial support is located at the channel floor near $78.80, ahead of a previous resistance, now turned support right below $78.00 (April 8 high, April 16,17 lows). Further down, the next target is the April 10 low near $72.60.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at $80.80, which is holding bulls on Monday. Above that level, bulls would aim for Friday's high, at $83.06.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlights how the US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could reshape the risk premium on the Dollar. He argues that a messy transition from Jerome Powell, including a possible “Two Popes” leadership dispute, may erode the USD’s haven appeal just as tensions with Iran intensify.
Trump–Powell–Warsh showdown unsettles Fed
"The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to conduct a confirmation hearing of the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on April 21 at 10:00 AM ET (or 10:00 PM SGT). The Trump administration is aggressively pushing for Warsh to take over by the end of Jerome Powell’s term on May 15."
"Understandably, Powell has refused to resign under the cloud of the DOJ probe to prevent the Trump administration from characterising his departure as a quiet firing or an admission of guilt before vacating office. On March 18, Powell publicly stated that the investigation was a pretext to undermine Fed independence."
"He invoked the holdover provision of the Federal Reserve Act to continue serving as Fed Chair until a successor is appointed, while vowing to serve his full term as Fed Governor until January 2028. Powell is effectively forcing the DOJ to either produce a smoking gun or publicly clear him before he steps down."
"President Trump has responded by threatening to fire Powell or designate an Acting Fed Chair (potentially Stephen Miran) upon Powell’s term expiry on May 15. The President’s strategy is legally murky and could be challenged by the Board of Governors that backs Powell. A “Two Popes” scenario, in which Powell claims legal leadership while the other claims executive authority, could emerge."
"The endgame of this Fed transition is about the risk premium associated with a contested Fed leadership. Markets will likely treat any “Two Popes” scenario as a referendum on the Fed’s independence, in which Warsh’s alignment with the White House will come under heavy scrutiny."
"Crucially, the hearing has the potential to undermine the current USD’s haven status just before the expiration of President Trump’s 10-day ceasefire with Iran on April 22."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB economists Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD spiked to 1.1848 before reversing sharply, leaving the Euro looking overextended on the downside. They see scope for further weakness but expects firm support at 1.1715, with 1.1665 unlikely to be tested. Over the next one to three weeks, EUR/USD is projected to trade between 1.1665 and 1.1840.
Euro-Dollar downside seen limited
"Last Friday, we expected EUR to “consolidate between 1.1760 and 1.1805.” We were incorrect, as EUR soared to 1.1848 and then reversed sharply, plummeting to a low of 1.1760. EUR closed at 1.1762 (-0.16%) but opened with a gap lower today."
"While there is scope for EUR to weaken further, the sharp drop appears to be overextended, and any decline is expected to face firm support at 1.1715. We do not expect the major support at 1.1665 to come into view. Resistance levels are at 1.1775 and 1.1800."
"Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1735 has not been breached yet, the price movements suggest that 1.1850 is out of reach and EUR is likely to trade in a range for the time being, probably between 1.1665 and 1.1840."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI Oil prices consolidate around $87.00, nearly 10% above Friday's lows.
- Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have triggered a significant recovery in Oil prices.
- Markets remain hopeful that a peace deal is still possible, which is keeping prices below the key $100 line.
Crude prices edged lower during Monday’s European trading session, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel changing hands at $86.85 at the time of writing. This is down from session highs at $88.50, but significantly above Friday’s lows, at $78.90.
Downbeat news from the Middle East has curbed investors’ optimism about the fate of the US-Iran peace process, and has buoyed Crude prices from last week's lows. Investors, however, maintain some hopes that talks might resume, which is keeping prices below the key $100 level so far.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei affirmed earlier on Monday that Tehran has no plan to attend a second round of negotiations due to “aggressive acts” and violation of the ceasefire by the US.
Baghaei is highly likely referring to the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel by the US army in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Tehran vowed retaliation, and Iranian state media suggested that the Islamic Republic might skip the peace talks scheduled to resume in Pakistan on Tuesday.
WTI Oil prices are now trading at levels nearly 10% above Friday’s lows but still well below the $106.50 area where they were in early April before the announcement of the ceasefire, or the nearly 5-year high at $113.28, reached after the first week of the war in March.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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