Forex News
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to ease to 4.2% year-on-year in May, helped by lower transport and recreational prices. Even if inflation surprises higher, they believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely remain on hold in August. Softer new orders and easing price pressures in the Australia Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also support a steady cash rate.
Easing inflation supports steady RBA policy
"We expect headline CPI to ease further in May to 4.2% y/y (cons: 4.3%) from 4.6% last month."
"Transport prices are likely lower on a m/m basis due to a drop in fuel prices while recreational prices could reverse lower as May is a typical lull month for domestic travel."
"Even if inflation surprises to the upside, we believe the RBA is inclined to be on the sidelines in Aug as we flag in our earlier note."
"The drop in new orders and slowing in inflation pressures in S&P's Australia Flash Composite PMI for June adds support to the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold at its August meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD has depreciated nearly 0.7% so far this week to test 11-month lows at 1.3991.
- Higher US Treasury yields and uncertainty about the US-Iran peace deal are boosting the Greenback this week.
- Preliminary Eurozone PMI data beat expectations in June, but German figures disappointed.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses on Tuesday, with the US Dollar (USD) buoyed by rising hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening later this year and a cautious market mood, amid the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran trade deal. The pair has pierced the 1.1400 area for the first time this year and is testing July 2025 lows at 1.1391 at the time of writing, after falling nearly 0.7% over the last two days.
The US Dollar is drawing support from higher Treasury yields, as traders brace for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the second half of the year. The CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool shows a 70% chance of a hike in September, up from less than 30% a week ago, and is almost fully pricing at least a quarter-point hike before the end of the year.
Beyond that, the progress on the US peace process remains uncertain, with key issues like the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the air, let alone the controversial nuclear program. Investors have not popped the champagne yet.
In the Eurozone, preliminary HCOB Purchasing Manager’s Index data showed slightly above-expectations business activity, but the soft figures from Germany are keeping the enthusiasm about the region’s economic outlook subdued.
Technical Indicators: Euro sell-off starts to look overstretched
EUR/USD trades at 1.1392, extending its bearish stance, with Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings reaching oversold levels in most timeframes, which should act as a warning for sellers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in the daily chart is tracking below zero, suggesting persistent downside pressure with only tentative scope for corrective rebounds.
Below 1.1391, the next downside targets are the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-June rally, at 1.1328, and the late May 2025 low, in the 1.1220 area.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Monday's high, near 1.1475, and the June 8 and 11 lows, in the 1.1500 area. An unlikely move above here would expose the June 16 and 17 highs, in the 1.1620 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights rising Japanese Yen intervention risk after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Japan and the U.S. reaffirmed a shared stance that bold FX action remains possible, even as Katayama avoided commenting on current levels. The report notes heightened market focus on USD/JPY as it trades near a 40-year high, alongside broader discussions on global markets and Iran.
Katayama call keeps FX option open
"Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she held a phone call lasting nearly an hour with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday, following last week’s G7 meeting in France."
"She said Japan and the U.S. still share a “solid understanding” that bold action can be taken if necessary on foreign exchange, signaling that the bilateral stance on intervention remains unchanged."
"Katayama said cooperation and alignment between the two sides have strengthened, but declined to comment on current FX levels."
"The remarks heightened market attention regarding possible Japanese intervention as the yen hovered near a 40-year low."
"The discussion also covered global financial markets and recent developments in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
(This story was corrected on June 23 at 13:04 GMT to note in the first paragraph that the USD/JPY trades near a 40-year high, not low).
- The Australian Dollar trades lower against its major peers as hawkish Fed bets prompt the risk-off mood.
- The BofA expects the Fed to deliver three interest rate hikes this year.
- Investors await the Australian CPI and the employment data for May.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its currency peers, trading 0.8% lower at around 0.6945 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European session on Tuesday. The antipodean faces intense selling pressure as market sentiment turns risk-averse due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver at least two interest rate hikes this year.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.29% | -0.02% | 0.20% | 0.87% | 0.54% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | -0.04% | -0.33% | -0.13% | 0.52% | 0.22% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.28% | -0.07% | 0.58% | 0.26% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.33% | 0.28% | 0.21% | 0.88% | 0.55% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.13% | 0.07% | -0.21% | 0.68% | 0.35% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.87% | -0.52% | -0.58% | -0.88% | -0.68% | -0.30% | -0.69% | |
| NZD | -0.54% | -0.22% | -0.26% | -0.55% | -0.35% | 0.30% | -0.42% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | 0.18% | 0.13% | -0.14% | 0.06% | 0.69% | 0.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down 1.36% to near 7,370, reflecting a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.20, the highest level seen in over a year.
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) expect the Fed to deliver three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) in September, October, and December meetings, a sharp turnaround from the anticipation that the central bank will stand pat this year.
“The data simply don't warrant cuts this year. Core inflation is too high, and moving up. The solid April jobs report was the last straw, especially given hawkish Fedspeak," BofA said.
On the domestic front, investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the employment data for May, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Investors will pay close attention to the inflation data, as soft figures in April led to unwinding of hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to show that inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace of 4.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 4.2%. On a monthly basis, the inflation data is expected to arrive at -0.3% vs. 0.4% in April.
Meanwhile, the labor market data on Thursday will likely show that the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.4% from 4.5% in April.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jun 24, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.4%
Previous: 4.2%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch uses Alan Greenspan’s death to revisit his long-standing support for Gold as a premier currency. The bank notes Greenspan’s consistent scepticism toward fiat money, the abolition of the Gold standard, and links his remarks to the sharp rise in Gold prices in recent years and supportive survey evidence from central banks compiled by the World Gold Council.
Monetary doubts underpin long term appeal
"Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan died yesterday at the age of 100. As chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee from 1987 to 2006, Greenspan shaped the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve."
"Under his leadership, the Fed began lowering interest rates and expanding liquidity during crises, which calmed the markets in the short term but was not without negative side effects in the medium to long term. Less well known to many is his view on gold. Greenspan was considered a supporter of the gold standard long before his time at the Fed."
"A quote from the 1966 essay “Gold and Economic Freedom” has become legendary: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. "There is no safe store of value.” He held fast to this view even after leaving the Fed. In 2014, he said: “Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.” "
"The gold standard has been abolished since 1971 at the latest, when US President Nixon ended the US dollar’s peg to gold. Greenspan’s remarks, however, speak for themselves. The sharp rise in the price of gold in recent years attests to this, as does the survey of central banks’ views on gold recently published by the World Gold Council."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
In a post published on Truth Social on Tuesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump claimed that Iran has "fully and completely" agreed to highest level nuclear inspections long into the future.
"If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations! Based on this and other major concessions being made by Iran, I have agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain open, with no further naval blockade," Trump added.
Market reaction
These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the US Dollar's (USD) performance. At the time of press, the USD Index was trading at its highest level since May 2025 at 101.25, rising 0.25% on the day.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say global Aluminium output is rising, including in China, Europe and Asia ex-China, but the market remains in deficit. They estimate around 3mt of capacity has been lost to Middle East disruptions and is unlikely to return quickly. The team continues to forecast a sizeable global Aluminium deficit this year.
Supply disruptions keep market tight
"In other metals, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed that global primary aluminium output rose 3.5% month-on-month to 6.2mt in May. This reflects higher production across most major regions. "
"However, the aluminium market is still expected to remain in deficit this year. Supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have removed an estimated 3mt of production from the market."
" Lost capacity is unlikely to return quickly given the lengthy restart process for smelters. We continue to forecast a global aluminium deficit of around 1.8mt this year."
"China's aluminium production rose 2% YoY to 3.8mt in May as stronger margins supported smelter utilisation rates. Aluminium exports continued to increase, rising 16% YoY in May, supported by stronger international prices. However, further production growth remains constrained by government capacity caps."
"Aluminium production increased across Europe and Asia ex-China in May, while Gulf output remained more than 35% below year-ago levels due to ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale analysts expect the Hungarian central bank Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to cut rates by 25 bps to 6.0%, citing improved sentiment after Peter Magyar’s election victory and an EU-friendly policy stance. Stronger funding conditions and sub-target inflation have driven EUR/HUF to around 350, its lowest since August 2021, with scope for further MNB easing by year-end.
MNB easing backed by stronger forint
"In EM, our house view is for a 25bp rate cut in Hungary today to 6.0%, in line with consensus. The carry remains attractive compared to regional peers incl Czech Republic and Poland (both policy rates at 3.75%), but improved investor sentiment since the election victory of Peter Magyar in April has created room for the MNB to ease policy."
"EUR/HUF retraced to around 350/EUR, the lowest since August 2021. Headline inflation slowed to 1.8% in May, below the 2–4% target band, reinforcing the easing case. Tactical profit-taking in the forint is likely given stretched positioning. Our base case is for the MNB rate to fall to 5.0% by year-end."
"The euro-friendly policy stance, unlocking EU funds and commitments to fiscal discipline have all bolstered confidence in the forint. Funding conditions have eased materially, with the 10y yields falling to ~5.15% from 7.47% in March, below Poland (5.41%). Swaps have come down to 4.81%."
"EUR/HUF recently reached the lower limit of a descending channel in place since 2022 at 348, which is also a projection and may act as an intermittent support."
"A brief bounce is taking shape however it will be important to observe whether the pair can form a base and gradually reclaim the 50-DMA, currently around 358. An inability to maintain above 348 may lead to extension in decline towards the 2021 lows of 344/342."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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