Forex News
- EUR/USD is wavering without a clear bias, with upside attempts limited below 1.1650.
- Fresh US attacks on Iran have undermined hopes of a swift end to the war.
- ECB's Lane has shown supportive to the idea of further monetary tightening.
The Euro (EUR) remains flat against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, trading at 1.1645 at the time of writing, after bouncing up from 1.1624 highs. The pair is lacking a clear direction this week, with investors wary of taking excessive risks, awaiting clarity from the US-Iran conflict.
Market sentiment suffered a setback on Tuesday, amid news reporting US attacks on military targets in Southern Iran, which have been considered “defensive" by US authorities. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Telegram that the US will no longer have a haven in the Gulf region.
Markets, however, are latching onto hopes of a negotiated end to the war as Tehran and Washington discuss the latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is keeping US Dollar recoveries limited for now and Oil prices below the key $100 level.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philippe Lane has shown comfortable with market expectations of higher interest rates in an interview with Nikkei on Tuesday. Lane added that the bank “expects indirect effects beyond energy prices,” feeding expectation of a rate hike in June or July.
Later on Tuesday, the US Conference Board will release its May Consumer Confidence report, and the Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) will disclose the latest Manufacturing Business Survey. The focus this week, however, will remain on Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which will shed further light on the Fed’s rate path.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Confidence
The Consumer Confidence index, released on a monthly basis by the Conference Board, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States, reflecting prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer expectations for inflation, labor market, stock prices and interest rates. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Note: Because of restrictions from the Conference Board, FXStreet Economic Calendar does not provide this indicator's figures.
Read more.Next release: Tue May 26, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Conference Board
Economic Indicator
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are asked by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase.
Read more.Last release: Mon Apr 27, 2026 14:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -2.3
Consensus: -
Previous: -0.2
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- Gold price tumbles to near $4,530 on renewed US-Iran tensions.
- Iran’s IRGC identified a hostile aircraft and shot down an MQ-9 drone.
- The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.85% lower to near $4,530 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces selling pressure amid growing concerns over the longevity of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
During the day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that it identified hostile aircraft entering its airspace and intercepted an MQ-9 drone.
On Monday, the Iranian state media also reported that explosions had been heard in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas for reasons that remain unclear, which were described as “self-defense” by the United States (US) Central Command.
Theoretically, escalating geopolitical tensions improve the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Gold; however, it is under pressure due to the oil price recovery, in the wake of Middle East uncertainty, which has already prompted US inflation and eradicated hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding interest rates at their current levels this year are 43.5%, while the rest are in favor of at least one interest rate hike this year.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades lower at around $4,530, holding a bearish near-term bias, as spot remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,601.20.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 zone for a longer period, demonstrating indecisiveness among investors.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,601.20, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards the May 12 high at $4,773.60. Looking down, the Gold price could slide towards the March 26 low at $4,351.23 if it declines below the May 20 low at $4,453.72
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The Indian Rupee hits a roadblock after a four-day rally against the US Dollar.
- US forces launched “self-defense strikes” on Iranian vessels for deploying mines.
- India’s FM Sitharaman assures she will take suggestions regarding higher capital gains taxes.
The Indian Rupee’s (INR) rally against the US Dollar (USD) hits a pause after a four-day winning streak on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.45 as the recovery move in oil prices amid fears that the United States (US)-Iran negotiations could face a setback, following Washington’s attacks on Iranian missile sites, has prompted caution among market participants.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 1.5% higher to near $91.00. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, face pressure if oil prices rise.
US forces confirmed that strikes against Iran were "defensive"
On Monday, the US Central Command said that it conducted strikes in southern Iran, which were aimed at missile launch sites and Iranian vessels aiming to deploy mines, while clarifying that the nature of the strikes was “defensive” and not meant to end the ceasefire with Tehran.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to express confidence that negotiations with Iran towards a permanent resolution are going very well. Trump said on Monday that negotiations toward a deal with Iran to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz were "proceeding nicely, Bloomberg reported.
In the past few days, the Indian Rupee gained significantly on hopes of an early breakthrough in the US-Iran negotiations, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices.
India's FM Sitharaman assures to look after Capital Gains Tax
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the TEXPROCIL Export Awards Event on Monday, India’s Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman said that the centre will take suggestions from investors regarding higher Short-Term Capital Gains (STCG) and Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG) taxes. "On this specific issue, and on any issue, we are always ready and willing to listen to the people. We will certainly take their inputs,” Sitharaman said, ANI reported.
Market experts believe that higher LTCG and STCG taxes charged by the Indian government in comparison with other nations make India a less attractive investment avenue for foreign investors.
FIIs turned out net buyers on Monday
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned out to be net buyers in the Indian stock market on Monday after remaining net sellers in all the last four trading days. However, the amount invested by overseas investors was very low against the average selling seen during the May 19-22 period. On Monday, FIIs bought shares worth Rs. 821.75 crore, significantly lower than the four-day average selling of Rs. 2,596.63 crore.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers after four-day losing streak
USD/INR trades marginally higher at around 95.45 in India's late trading hours on Tuesday. The near-term tone of the pair is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 95.37.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to 54 after failing to hold overbought levels, indicating the conclusion of the positive momentum; however, the bullish bias remains intact.
Looking down, the pair could slide to 95.00 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. As long as USD/INR trades above this moving average, dips are likely to find buyers, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the upside. On the upside, the pair would attempt to return to the all-time high around 97.00 if it manages to recover above the May 22 high at 96.37.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said in an interview with Nikkei, "I don't think the market needs some kind of extra guidance from us,” when asked about speculation of an interest rate hike by the central bank. Lane added, "The ECB expects indirect effects beyond energy prices."
Market reaction
No immediate impact on the Euro (EUR) after ECB Lane's comments. In the European trade, EUR/USD turns flat at around 1.1640 after recovering early losses as the US Dollar falls back.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal initially pushed the Dollar lower alongside a sharp drop in Brent crude, but subsequent US strikes have revived uncertainty. He highlights that US yields and a more inflation-focused Federal Reserve stance should keep supporting the Dollar, while EUR/USD and high beta currencies like SEK and AUD remain vulnerable to setbacks in peace negotiations and geopolitical risks.
Yield support versus geopolitical swings
"However, strikes by the US in the region overnight has undermined this optimism and created elevated uncertainty."
"Marco Rubio has played down the US attacks stating that the talks would “take a few days” while President Trump posted that the talks were “proceeding nicely”."
"That would suggest, especially after the US strikes, that there is a risk of a further unwind of the move in markets yesterday."
"US yields look set to continue to provide support for the dollar with Fed officials more aligned with focusing on inflation risks."
"Fed Governor Waller’s speech last week underlined the shift with a signal of a potential rate hike if “inflation does not abate soon”."
"We do not believe a rate hike is coming this year and indeed if a credible peace deal is achieved a rate cut this year is still feasible."
"But until both sides formally announce a deal, investors will likely trade cautiously given the inflationary pressures that are building."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Citing a source close to Tehran's negotiation team, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported on Tuesday that Iran insists $24 billion of frozen Iranian funds must be released in a potential Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the United States (US).
According to the report, Iran wants half of that amount be made reachable by the beginning of the MOU announcement.
The agency further noted that Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf, had travelled to Qatar to reach agreement on a mechanism to implement this demand.
Market reaction
This headline failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.05% on the day at 99.05.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team note that Brent Oil has fallen sharply as hopes build for a deal to end the Iran war, with prices dropping back below $100. The bank links recent Oil weakness to reduced stagflation fears and lower inflation expectations.
Iran conflict headlines steer Oil prices
"Since the weekend, the real hope is that the days may also be numbered for the war in Iran as well, with momentum building since the start of the weekend that a deal could be in the works. Brent, which ended last week at $103.54/bbl, is this morning trading at $97.87/bbl, around -5.48% lower than Friday’s close."
"However, Brent had got as low as $96.02 late yesterday before news overnight that US and Israeli jets conducted fresh strikes in Southern Iran, hitting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats."
"Recapping last week now, more for those who were off yesterday. Markets put in a strong performance overall, as hopes mounted for some kind of US-Iran deal. So that raised investor expectations that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen in the weeks ahead, which helped to bring down oil prices."
"Indeed, Brent crude fell -5.24% last week to $103.54/bbl, whilst WTI fell -8.37% to $96.60/bbl."
"That decline in oil prices meant investor fears eased about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, supporting bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $76.06 per troy ounce, down 2.56% from the $78.06 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 7.01% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 76.06 |
1 Gram | 2.45 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 59.47 on Tuesday, up from 58.53 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that EUR/GBP is trading within a Head and Shoulders pattern, implying potential downside if key levels give way. A sustained break below 0.8610 is seen as crucial for confirming a deeper decline, with 0.8730/0.8740 acting as near-term resistance and 0.8535 as the next downside objective within a broader descending channel.
Head and Shoulders signals downside risk
"EUR/GBP has evolved within a Head and Shoulders pattern, which points towards potential downside."
"However, a break below the neckline at 0.8610 will be crucial for confirmation."
"If EUR/GBP establishes below 0.8610, the downtrend may extend."
"Recent pivot high around 0.8730/0.8740 remains a key resistance in the short-term."
"The next objective could be located at projection of 0.8535, which is also the lower limit of a multi-month descending channel."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid a combination of diverging forces.
- Geopolitical risks revive USD demand, while recovering Crude Oil prices underpin the Loonie.
- A move beyond the 1.3810-1.3815 confluence is needed to back the case for further gains.
The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day on Tuesday and holds steady near the 1.3800 mark through the first half of the European session. Mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal revive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. However, a goodish recovery in Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair hovers just below the 1.3810-1.3815 confluence – comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-January 2026 downfall and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This tight overhead resistance suggests upside attempts remain vulnerable while those levels cap on a closing basis, despite improving momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index sits around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds marginally above zero with a modestly positive line.
This hints at constructive but contained bullish pressure, making it prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through the said confluence hurdle before positioning for an extension of the recent move up from the monthly swing low. In the meantime, a clear breakout through the 1.3810-1.3815 area would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.3885, followed by 1.3995 and the cycle high region near 1.4136.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3730, ahead of the 23.6% level at 1.3634. A deeper slide toward the structural floor near 1.3479 will likely signal a more pronounced bearish reversal of the recent advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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