Forex News
- USD/CAD extends its downside to near 1.4025 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Economists expect the BoC to raise rates next week.
- Iran signalled that there was little reason to expect progress in talks with US.
The USD/CAD pair weakens to around 1.4025 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The pair hits the lowest since September 21 as elevated crude oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). The weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data is due later on Thursday. On Friday, Canada’s Retail Sales and US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports will be the highlights.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has held its key interest rate unchanged for about a year, but some economists anticipate rates to begin rising again at the upcoming policy meeting next week, which would be the first hike in more than three years.
Swap market data indicates an 80% probability the Canadian central bank lifts its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% on October 28, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices jumped as tensions between the US and Iran deepened. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that there was little reason to expect progress in talks with Washington, adding that Tehran was fully prepared to defend itself, per the Financial Times.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the US could not expect Tehran to engage in dialogue while continuing to blockade and threaten it. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
USD/CAD under pressure as IMF highlights widening North American growth gap
Strategists at Societe Generale highlight that the latest IMF projections underscore a growing divergence in North American prospects, with the Fund now seeing US growth at “2.5% this year (while remaining at 2.1% in 2027),” a profile that contrasts with a notably softer outlook for Canada. They note that “the North American growth gap is widening,” pointing out that while “the chart on the right shows relative Bloomberg consensus growth forecasts for 2027, … the IMF’s assessment (1.2% growth in Canada next year versus 2.1% in the US) is even less favourable for Canada.” Against this backdrop, Societe Generale draw attention to the policy and market backdrop, observing that “the chart on the left shows the two-year rate differential plotted against USD/CAD,” underlining the importance of relative rate expectations in shaping the Canadian Dollar’s performance.
Warsh flags investment surge and AI risks while keeping Fed options open
Fed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately cautious tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score of 5.6/10 coming in slightly below the 6.1/10 historical average, suggesting a touch less conviction than the established baseline. The admission of being “over-scarred” by the Global Financial Crisis, combined with emphasis on structural growth, an investment surge, and upcoming “crystalizing” meetings, underscores a risk-aware stance that balances optimism on investment and AI with sensitivity to downside and financial stability risks. Warsh’s refusal to pre-commit on October and December decisions, and focus on AI’s uncertain near-term employment impact, reinforces a data-dependent posture that tempers any overtly hawkish signal for the Dollar.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, rising by 0.00 points to a still-elevated 127.51, indicating that despite the slightly softer FXS Speechtracker score, the broader policy signal remains firmly in hawkish territory. This stable, above-100 reading suggests markets continue to price a Fed that is committed to price stability and attentive to investment- and AI-driven upside risks, even as near-term guidance remains deliberately non-committal.
Technical Analysis: Negative tone of USD/CAD remains intact below the 100-day SMA
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen in the 1.4040-1.4045 zone, representing the lower Bollinger band and the 100-day moving average. Any follow-through buying above this zone would ease the immediate downside pressure and open the way toward the Bollinger midline around 1.4190 and the upper band near 1.4330.
On the downside, the key support level emerges at the 1.4000 psychological level, followed by the August 31 high of 1.3912. Further south, the next contention level to watch is the September 8 low of 1.3760.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Danske Research Team describes Wednesday as a constructive session for global equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting gains. However, weaker overnight earnings sentiment, including Meta’s higher spending plans and Tesla’s lower capex guidance, has weighed on futures, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 contracts trading lower alongside a softer Kospi.
Constructive cash session, softer futures
"Wednesday was ultimately a constructive session for equities rising 0.7%, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and Nasdaq gaining 1.1%."
"The overnight earnings picture, however, has been less convincing to markets."
"Meta raised its spending outlook and announced new AI initiatives, while Tesla moved in the opposite direction, lowering its 2026 capex target to USD20bn from above USD25bn."
"The two stocks also moved in opposite directions in post-market trading."
"So, while Meta shares gained after hours, the broader signal from big tech was not strong enough to keep the AI momentum going."
"Nasdaq futures are down 1.2% this morning and S&P 500 futures are down 0.6%, while the Kospi is also trading lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/USD trades firmly near the monthly high around 1.3410.
- Hawkish BoE expectations have strengthened the British Pound.
- Investors await the UK Retail Sales and the flash UK-US PMI data.
The British Pound (GBP) reflects strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading firmly near the monthly high at around 1.3410 in the European trade. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as hot United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has boosted hawkish Bank of England (BoE) expectations.
UK inflation surprise keeps BoE tightening bias in focus
Analysts at Nomura highlight that the latest UK inflation release showed renewed upside pressure, with “both headline and services inflation” in the September report coming in “above consensus expectations.” They note that the BoE’s core gauge of underlying price pressures remains stubborn, stressing that “the BoE’s core measure service prices momentum has been sticky over the past few months.”
Nomura also points to pipeline pressures, observing that “upstream prices also surprised on the upside.” While they judge that wholesale goods price rises were “dominated by a rise in energy costs,” they add that “core prices rose at a more modest pace.” At the same time, they warn that “upstream service prices are signalling a further increase in consumer prices,” underscoring the risk of renewed pass-through to households.
Against this backdrop, Nomura argues that “a combination of sticky inflation, a resilient labour market, strong economic growth and persistently elevated energy prices has led us to change our view on the BoE.” The bank now expects additional tightening, stating: “We now see rate hikes in November and February, which is still a more dovish outcome than markets are pricing.”
Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales data for September and the preliminary Uk-United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for October, which are scheduled for Friday.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3404. The pair has reclaimed a near-term bullish tone as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3313 and sits between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracements of the recent downswing, with the latter just overhead at 1.3409. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.6 is edging into positive territory, which suggests recovering upside momentum while the pair tests this key retracement cap.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3409, followed by the 61.8% level near 1.3472 and the 78.6% retracement around 1.3562, with the recent swing high at 1.3677 acting as a more distant barrier. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3345, ahead of the 23.6% level around 1.3267, while a deeper pullback would expose the structural floor near 1.3140.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Oct 21, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 3.5%
Consensus: 3.4%
Previous: 3.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
- EUR/GBP has bounced up from 17-month lows near 0.8370 but remains capped below 0.8400 so far.
- High Oil prices and concerns about France's fiscal health are likely to keep Euro rallies limited.
- The Pound remains strong as recent UK data endorses the idea of a BoE rate hike in November.
The Euro (EUR) shows a mild bullish correction against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following a more than 2.7% selloff from late September highs that had pushed the Relative Strength Index to heavily oversold levels in most timeframes. The EUR/GBP pair trades around 0.8390, after hitting fresh 17-month lows near 0.8370 on Wednesday, with 0.8400 capping rallies for now.
Slightly brighter market sentiment is supporting the Euro on Thursday, although high Oil prices and ongoing concerns about France’s fiscal issues, and the government’s difficulty resolving them, are likely to cap the pair’s recovery.
The Pound, on the other hand, is likely to remain strong, as the hot UK inflation figures released on Wednesday and the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures seen last week have paved the path for the Bank of England (BoE) to hike interest rates at its November meeting.
Later in the day, BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey will meet the press and might provide further guidance about next month's meeting. In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) official and Bank of Italy Governor, Fabio Panetta, will take the stage ahead of the release of the European Commission’s preliminary Consumer Confidence report.
Technical Analysis: Dead cat bounce
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8393, keeping the broader bearish trend intact after having depreciated continuously over the last four weeks. The pair shows a mild corrective reaction as the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) picks up from heavily oversold levels, although it remains below 40. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, but the whole picture suggests that rallies are likely to find sellers.
Immediate resistance is seen at Wednesday's top at the 0.8400 area, followed by the October 19 and 20 highs, near 0.8430. On the downside, below Wednesday's low near 0.8373, the next bearish targets are the May 2025 low, near 0.8355, and the April 2025 bottom, around 0.8320.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on October 22 at 07:00 to say that EUR/GBP has bounced up from 17-month lows, in the first bullet point, and not EUR/USD as previously reported)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.61% | -0.15% | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.38% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.01% | -0.51% | -0.06% | 0.33% | 0.26% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.01% | -0.53% | -0.09% | 0.30% | 0.22% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.61% | 0.51% | 0.53% | 0.45% | 0.82% | 0.72% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.45% | 0.37% | 0.30% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.82% | -0.37% | -0.09% | -0.59% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.72% | -0.30% | 0.09% | -0.48% | |
| CHF | 0.38% | 0.28% | 0.29% | -0.23% | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.48% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices remain well supported as ICE Brent trades back above $110/bbl following new attacks on Saudi Arabia. They highlight that Kuwait is exporting as much crude as before the war while producing more than 2m b/d, but refined product shipping issues and elevated US inventory draws keep a sizeable risk premium in place.
Brent holds firm on supply risks
"Despite the volatile environment, oil flows from the Persian Gulf are holding up. According to the CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Kuwait is exporting as much crude oil as before the war and producing more than 2m b/d. However, he admitted that the shipping of refined products is more of an issue."
"While oil flows have remained elevated, President Trump has expressed concern that oil prices remain elevated due to supply risks. This leaves plenty of uncertainty over the sustainability of flows. The sizeable risk premium currently embedded in prices is unlikely to fade until clear signs of de-escalation emerge and reassure investors that regional supply will remain uninterrupted."
"EIA inventory data shows US crude oil inventories fell by 3.06m barrels over the last week. There was anadditional 300k-barrel fall in Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The data still reflects the impact of hurricane activity in the US Gulf of Mexico, with US oil production estimated to have fallen 410k b/d week-on-week."
"Oil prices remain well bid, with ICE Brent back above $110/bbl this morning following additional deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia. Drones struck the Shaybah oilfield and Dammam's international airport. An oil processing plant was the target of the attack."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD remains stuck in a tight consolidation, with intraday trade expected between 1.1210 and 1.1250 as momentum indicators stay flat. Over the next one to three weeks they see a narrower 1.1170–1.1270 band containing price action. Their medium-term view is that the early-September decline may have bottomed near 1.1112, allowing a corrective recovery above the 21-day EMA at 1.1280.
Euro confined to narrowing ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose briefly to a high of 1.1260 on Tuesday and then pulled back. Yesterday, we pointed out that “the brief advance did not lead to any increase in upward momentum,” and we expected EUR “to trade in a range between 1.1205 and 1.1255.” EUR subsequently traded within a narrower range than expected (1.1211/1.1240), closing largely unchanged at 1.1232 (-0.04%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat and today, we expect EUR to range-trade between 1.1210 and 1.1250."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Friday (16 Oct, spot at 1.1215), we indicated that EUR “has likely entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1160 and 1.1280.” The price movements since then still appear to be part of a rangetrading phase, but a narrower 1.1170/1.1270 range is likely sufficient to contain EUR for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI regains positive traction following good two-way price swings over the past two days.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the commodity and favor bulls.
- The constructive technical setup also backs the case for additional gains towards $100.00.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh buyers on Thursday, climbing to the $98.70 zone during the Asian session. The commodity remains within striking distance of its highest level since September 15, touched earlier this week, amid
Concerns about a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel worries over potential energy supply disruptions and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid. In the latest developments, two expatriates were killed and two others injured in a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in the Eastern Province.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a short but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised the country's readiness to defend itself, while stating that Tehran is ready to give diplomacy with the US another chance.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices hold well above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Adding to this, Tuesday's bounce from a resistance breakpoint, now turned support near the $95.00 mark, suggests that the short-term uptrend remains intact despite the recent volatility led by mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, hinting that upside momentum is moderate rather than impulsive. Nevertheless, the broader constructive setup suggests that any corrective slide could find support at $95.00.
The structural floor is located at the 100-period SMA, around $92.76, where buyers would be expected to reassert control on a deeper pullback within the prevailing bullish context. That said, a break below this pivotal support would weaken the bullish structure, whereas holding above it keeps the path open for another attempt toward the recent psychological $100 region and beyond.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Indonesian Rupiah weakens due to high oil prices, El Niño-driven food inflation, and MSCI policy concerns.
- BI liquidity interventions help cushion further steep declines for the Indonesian Rupiah.
- US Dollar gains may be limited by weak US housing data and Fed rate uncertainties.
USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 18,070 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair has seen upward momentum as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure from rising global oil prices, which have heightened fiscal concerns for the nation.
Meanwhile, elevated food costs driven by El Niño weather conditions continue to keep domestic inflationary pressures high. Market sentiment was dampened further after President Prabowo criticized MSCI’s proposed changes to Indonesia’s market classification, adding to fears of potential foreign capital outflows. Nevertheless, liquidity measures introduced by Bank Indonesia (BI) have helped cushion the Rupiah's overall decline.
IDR under pressure as BI flags wider current account gap and MSCI risks
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that Bank Indonesia now expects a meaningful deterioration in Indonesia’s external balances, noting that BI “projects Indonesia’s current account deficit (1% of GDP in Q2) to widen to be between 1.6% and 2.4% of GDP in 2026.” They argue that this projected widening “raises external funding needs just as MSCI downgrade risks threaten capital outflows,” a combination that is seen as “keeping IDR under downside pressure.”
On the other hand, the upside for the USD/IDR pair may remain capped due to recent weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Recent economic indicators have pointed to a slowing US economy, highlighted by a downturn in September housing starts and pending home sales dropping to a record low.
Additionally, expectations surrounding US monetary policy are shaping the outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an 84% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, alongside a 90% probability of a rate hike in December. However, market uncertainty remains high following recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who declined to provide clear guidance on the timing or necessity of future rate adjustments.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/IDR trades at 18,070. The pair holds a near-term bullish bias as spot remains above both the short- and medium-term, suggesting buyers are defending higher ground. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 61 leans into positive territory, hinting that upside momentum is firm but not yet overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 18,020.85, with the 50-day EMA at 17,906.01 providing a deeper dynamic floor if a pullback extends. As long as USD/IDR holds above these moving averages, the technical backdrop favors dips being bought, with the absence of nearby overhead levels implying scope for further gains before fresh resistance zones are established.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
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