Forex News
TD Securities strategists discuss Canadian by-elections in three federal ridings and notes that Prime Minister Carney’s Liberals are close to securing a majority in Parliament. They highlight that a slim Liberal majority is unlikely to alter the near-term fiscal outlook materially, but it would strengthen Carney’s mandate and lower the probability of a snap election in 2026.
Carney majority seen with limited fiscal impact
"PM Carney is sitting on the cusp of a majority government ahead of Monday's by-elections, which will take place in 3 federal ridings across Ontario and Quebec."
"Carney's Liberals command 171 of 343 seats in the House of Commons after recent defections from the opposition, and poll aggregators show a sizable lead for the Liberals in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest which should land them a majority in Parliament."
"We do not expect a slim Liberal majority to have significant impacts on the near-term fiscal outlook; the Liberal government was able to pass its last budget without much difficulty, and majority governments don't always translate to less fiscal restraint."
"However, Carney should have a stronger mandate coming out of these by-elections which reduces the likelihood of a snap election in 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver hovers right above $74.00 after hitting daily lows near $72.61.
- Precious metals struggle on Monday as US-Iran peace talks fail and Trump threatens to block Hormuz.
- XAU/USD: A potential Bearish Flag formation is in progress
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading practically flat, right above the $74.00 level at the time of writing, after having hit session lows at $72.61. The failure of the peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend and US President Donald Trump’s will to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz have provided a fresh boost to the safe-haven US Dollar.
Precious metals dropped following the breakdown of the peace talks. US negotiators affirmed that Iran’s refusal to continue enriching uranium, allegedly aimed at obtaining a nuclear weapon, has been a red line. The two-week ceasefire, however, remains in place, which keeps hopes of further negotiations alive.
The macroeconomic calendar is practically empty on Monday. On Tuesday, all eyes are on the US Producer Prices Index (PPI) figures from March. These are expected to follow the track of Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, highlighting the inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war and giving further reasons for Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks.
Technical Analysis: Potential Bearish Flag formation
XAG/USD is holding right above the bottom of a rising channel from late March lows, with indicators showing a weakening momentum. The 4-Hour Relative Strength (RSI) Index has retreated below the midline, and downside momentum is reinforced by a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
A successful break of the mentioned channel bottom, now around $73.50, would confirm a Bearish Flag formation whose initial target would be the March 23 low, at the $61.00 area. Before that, bears are likely to meet some support at the early April lows, between $68.20 and $69.80.
On the topside, a recovery above the channel bottom would be the first sign of stabilization, opening scope for a test of horizontal resistance at $77.65 (April 8 high) ahead of the April 1 high, at $81.13, and the channel top, now around $85.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/CHF remains capped below 0.7930 despite the sourer market sentiment.
- Trump has announced a blockade of Hormuz after the failure of last weekend's peace talks.
- Iranian authorities warned that the presence of the US Navy in the Strait will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
The US Dollar (USD) is giving away previous gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the pair remains trapped within a roughly 70-pip range around 0.7900 on Monday, with upside attempts capped below the 0.7925-0.7930 area.
Last weekend’s peace talks between the US and Iran ended without agreement, and US President Donald Trump announced that he has ordered the US military to block any vessel trying to enter or leave the ports of Iran from Monday, 10:00 Easter time (14:00 GMT)
Iranian authorities warned that the US imposition of restrictions on the movement of vessels is illegal and “amounts to piracy.” The Revolutionary Guard warned that the presence of foreign military vessels in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and that they will be “dealt with severely.”
Meanwhile, the two-week truce remains in place, keeping hopes of a further round of negotiations alive and limiting the US Dollar’s upside attempts for now.
The macroeconomic calendar is practically void on Monday, and news from Iran will continue to drive markets. On Tuesday, the US Producer Price Index for March is expected to follow the track of last Friday’s US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) release, and add pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reverse the easing cycle.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- AUD/USD is failing to find acceptance above 0.7060 after bouncing from 0.6990 lows.
- Trump's pledge to close Hormuz keeps the safe-haven US Dollar supported.
- Australian consumer confidence and employment data might drive the Aussie later this week.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced at session lows to 0.6990 against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on Monday to close a previous trading gap in the area of 0.7055. The pair, however, is struggling to extend gains amid the weak market sentiment, following the failure of the US-Iran peace talks and US President Trump’s plan to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The US President announced on Truth Social that he has ordered the US Navy to block any vessel trying to enter or leave Iran’s ports. This measure is highly likely aimed at China, the main recipient of Iran’s Oil, to pressure the Islamic Republic to soften its stance at further negotiations.
Meanwhile, the two-week ceasefire remains in place, although Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has warned that the presence of foreign army vessels will be considered a violation of the truce, and that those ships will be “dealt with severely.”
The macroeconomic calendar is practically empty on Monday. On Tuesday, the attention will shift to the US Producer Prices Index (PPI) data from March, which is expected to follow the line of Friday’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures and add pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates at least once in 2026.
In Australia, Tuesday’s Westpac Consumer Confidence data is likely to show the impact of the energy shock on Australian buyers. The highlight of the week, however, will be March’s employment report, which is expected to shed some more light on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s near-term monetary policy plans.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen argues that, despite Iran’s Renminbi toll plans and geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar (USD) remains structurally dominant in trade and reserves. She notes a gradual decline in the Dollar’s reserve share and increased use of non-traditional currencies, but stresses this is largely sanctions-driven and that, absent such measures, the USD-centric system’s network advantages would prevail.
Dollar dominance faces slow, sanctions-led erosion
"Indeed, the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency is largely based on its dominance as a vehicle currency in global trade. This means the US dollar is not only predominantly used in direct trade with the United States but also in trade between third-party countries. This can be observed in the fact that the share of the USD in international payment systems is significantly higher than the share of the US in global trade."
"Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the dominance of the US dollar has shown cracks in recent years, and Iran’s plans could support this trend. But this can at best be described as a gradual erosion rather than a widespread departure from the dollar. The share of dollars in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from around 70% in 2000 to just under 60% recently."
"However, despite geopolitical tensions, there is little evidence to suggest a fundamental shift away from the USD. The recent changes in trade and reserve currencies seem primarily politically driven rather than economically motivated. Without these interventions, the advantages of the USD-centered system and its network effects remain clearly superior."
"What is clear is this: without sanctions, there would be no economic incentive to deviate from the USD-centric system. The advantages, particularly due to network effects, are far too significant. Simply put: it is efficient to trade in US dollars because the (still large) majority does."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Pound Sterling underperforms as the failure of US-Iran talks has dampened market sentiment.
- US President Trump announces that the blockade of Iranian ports will begin on April 13 at 10:00 AM ET.
- Traders will likely raise hawkish Fed bets as oil prices recover strongly.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers, trading 0.25% lower to near 1.3425 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The British currency declines as the failure of high-stakes talks between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the permanent ceasefire has dampened investors’ risk appetite.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.21% | 0.22% | -0.00% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.27% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.11% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.19% | -0.10% | 0.11% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses during the European trade, reflecting a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% higher to near 99.00.
Over the weekend, US-Iran negotiations failed to get direction as Tehran refused to give up intentions to build nuclear weapons. In response, the US has announced that it will begin blockading vessels from entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10:00 AM ET, 14:00 GMT.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East have boosted oil prices, a scenario that typically diminishes the appeal of currencies from economies, such as the United Kingdom (UK), which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
On the domestic front, Tuesday's speech by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be closely watched for fresh cues about the monetary policy. Investors will also await the UK's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February, to be released on Thursday. The UK GDP is estimated to have risen 0.1% after remaining flat in January. Along with the GDP data, investors will also focus on the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data.
In the US, traders are expected to raise hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for upcoming policy meetings as reviving oil prices in the wake of US-Iran peace talks failure have de-anchored inflation expectations again.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/HUF drops sharply to its lowest level since February 2022 as election results in Hungary boost the Forint.
- Strong mandate for Péter Magyar fuels optimism over policy shift and EU ties.
- US-Iran tensions keep FX volatility elevated, limiting gains in the HUF.
EUR/HUF falls sharply on Monday, with the Euro (EUR) weakening against the Hungarian Forint (HUF) as the cross slides to its lowest level since February 2022. The Forint strengthens across the board after a landslide election victory by opposition leader Péter Magyar boosts investor confidence. At the time of writing, EUR/HUF is trading around 367, down about 2.25% on the day.
The Tisza party secured 138 seats in the 199-member parliament with 53.6% of the vote, defeating Viktor Orbán and ending his 16-year rule. Markets have reacted swiftly, viewing the result as a major shift in Hungary’s political landscape, pushing the country in a more pro-European Union direction.
With a supermajority, Péter Magyar now has the legal authority to amend the Constitution. He has pledged to restore the rule of law, tackle corruption and restore the independence of democratic institutions, while also resetting ties with the European Union.
Viktor Orbán’s exit is also seen as reducing Hungary’s alignment with Russia and easing tensions within the European Union over support for Ukraine. This has raised expectations of unlocking billions in withheld EU funds, including a previously blocked €90 billion loan package.
A latest BHH report noted that “HUF has scope to adjust higher on diminishing domestic political risk premium,” adding that Hungary’s election result is also “EUR supportive at the margin by reducing EU political fragmentation risk.”
Goldman Sachs analysts, as reported by Reuters, said that if Hungary is serious about euro convergence, one of the first steps would be to lower its inflation target from 3% to the Eurozone’s 2%.
Such a move would imply a significant decline in Hungary’s long-term yields, further supporting the Forint over time. However, gains may remain capped in the near term, with EUR/HUF paring some of the election-driven losses amid heightened volatility across FX markets due to ongoing tensions between the US and Iran after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to produce a deal.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.26% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.26% | 0.15% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.26% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.27% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.15% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.02% | -0.27% | -0.09% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.09% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee declines sharply against the US Dollar as oil prices rally, following the failure of US-Iran talks.
- US President Trump instructs the Navy to blockade Iranian ports
- US gas prices will stay elevated through the November elections.
The Indian Rupee (INR) falls sharply in the opening trade against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rises to near 93.35 as rallying oil prices due to the announcement of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, by the United States (US) Navy, as instructed by President Donald Trump, have weighed heavily on the Indian Rupee.
Currencies from economies, such as India, that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
US President Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, he has ordered the Navy for a complete blockade of Iranian ports, as part of retaliation against Iran after the failure of peace talks with them.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” Trump wrote. He added, “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”
In response, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the “Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET” (14:00 GMT).
Negotiations regarding the permanent ceasefire in the Middle East collapsed on Iran’s refusal to drop its nuclear ambitions, as per Trump’s Truth Social post. At the start of the week, the WTI Oil price trades around $97.00.
Higher US Dollar also supports USD/INR
Renewed conflicts between the US and Iran have improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% higher to near 99.00.
In addition to the risk-off impulse, growing expectations that a higher oil price outlook would keep encouraging the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates have also strengthened the US Dollar.
US President Trump’s acknowledgment, in an interview with Fox Business, that gas prices could remain elevated through the November elections, a contradictory verdict from the one who had called several times that higher energy prices due to Middle East conflicts would be temporary, has prompted fears of de-anchoring inflation expectations.
“I hope so, I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher,” Trump responded when asked whether oil and gas prices would fall ahead of the midterm elections, which are expected to produce dire results for Republicans, The Daily Beast reported.
India's CPI data awaited
On the domestic front, India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March arrives higher at 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) against February's reading of 3.21%.
Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned out to be net buyers for the first time in almost six weeks in the Indian stock market. On Friday, FIIs bought shares worth Rs. 672.09 crore; however, the amount of investment was very small compared to the selling pressure seen in past few weeks.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR returns above 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades higher at around 93.40 on Monday. With price returning above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 92.96, the short-term tone of the pair turns bullish, though the lack of nearby mapped resistance levels argues for a more neutral overall bias.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.41 sits in neutral territory, suggesting steady rather than aggressive bullish momentum as the spot consolidates after its recent advance.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 92.96 is the first meaningful dynamic support, and a daily close back below this area would expose the pair to its key support zone around 92.43. On the topside, the pair could extend its recovery towards 94.00, and might try to reclaim its all-time high of 95.14 after breaking above that level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Danske Research notes that Norway’s March core inflation remained at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s projection, while headline inflation printed at 3.6% year-on-year. The Norwegian wage settlement points to 4.4% wage growth in 2026, seen as neutral for Norges Bank. Markets now price roughly equal odds of a rate hike in May versus June.
Norges Bank timing seen as wide open
"Norway's March core inflation held at 3.0% y/y, below the 3.1% y/y consensus and in line with Norges Bank's forecast, while headline inflation was 3.6% y/y, slightly higher than Norges Bank's forecast at 3.5% y/y."
"The Norwegian wage settlement ended with a central pay raise that is expected to result in overall wage growth of 4.4% in 2026."
"This is at the upper end of our expectations but is marginally lower than what Norges Bank assumed in the monetary policy report in March. Hence, the outcome should be neutral for Norges Bank."
"With Norges Bank back in March guiding towards a hike at "one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings", the prints were regarded as more important than usual for the near-term pricing of May vs June as the most likely time for the first hike. With these prints the rate decision in May remains wide open, as markets are pricing approximately a 50/50 chance of a hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent Oil back above $100 and lifted the US Dollar (USD) as risk aversion returns. Despite the energy shock, BBH keeps a low-conviction view that the worst may be past and expects US Dollar Index (DXY) to remain in its 96.00–100.00 range over coming months.
Dollar stays supported within broad range
"President Donald Trump decision to layer a US naval blockade on top of Iran’s de-facto control over the crucial Strait of Hormuz risk prolonging the energy shock, and raise tensions with China, a significant buyer of Iranian oil. Unsurprisingly, Brent crude oil prices rallied back above $100 a barrel, rekindling risk aversion across markets. Stocks and bonds are down, while USD is firmer."
"The Trump administration’s latest move looks more like a negotiating gambit to reset the bargaining terms of Strait of Hormuz access before US domestic constraints (higher gasoline prices and long-term Treasury yields) force a diplomatic off-ramp. In parallel, the US naval blockade cuts off Iran’s oil export revenue stream and incentivizes countries still receiving energy from Iran – China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey – to press Teheran toward a deal."
"The energy shock may not be over, but we are sticking to our low conviction view that the worst may be in the rear-view mirror. If so, interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies will continue to keep the DXY (USD index) anchored within its nearly one-year 96.00-100.00 range over the next few months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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