Forex News
- EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1400, with the YTD low of 1.1324 at a short distance.
- The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold and leave the door open for a hike in September.
- The technical picture shows the pair consolidating losses within a broader bearish trend.
The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday after finding some support in the mid-range of the 1.1300s earlier this week but remains unable to find acceptance above 1.1400. This leaves the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to further decline below the year-to-date low, at 1.1324, if a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) provides an additional boost to the US Dollar.
The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold, although markets are pricing a 35% chance of a quarter-point hike later in the day. A surprise tightening move is highly likely to send the US Dollar rallying, but a hawkish pause, the most likely scenario, might also provide support for the USD as it will cement hopes of a September hike.
In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) council member and Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Patsalides reiterated that higher Oil prices are boosting inflation risks, but he refused to give any hint about September’s monetary policy decision. The Euro showed no reaction to the comments.
Technical Analysis: Consolidating losses amid a bearish trend
EUR/USD trades around 1.1390, wavering in the lower range of July's trading channel and unable to put any significant distance from the 13-month low of 1.1324. Momentum indicators hint at a neutral-to-slightly-capped near-term bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edging marginally above zero, highlighting subdued bullish conviction.
On the topside, above 1.1400, bulls are likely to be challenged at 1.1440 (July 23 highs) ahead of the top of the last six weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area. On the downside, key support is at the mentioned 1.1324 low; further down, the next target is in the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.85% | 0.44% | 0.46% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.22% | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.77% | 0.35% | 0.37% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.41% | -0.23% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.84% | 0.43% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.06% | 0.74% | 0.37% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.85% | -0.77% | -0.55% | -0.84% | -0.74% | -0.41% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.44% | -0.35% | -0.13% | -0.43% | -0.37% | 0.41% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.46% | -0.37% | -0.15% | -0.36% | -0.38% | 0.40% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
According to a Reuters report, Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the Southern Red Sea. The report also shows that Houthis might exempt China's shipping fleet from any fee system.
This came after Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia and closed the Bab el-Mandeb gateway, a passage to almost 7% of the global energy supply, located in the Southern Red Sea.
Market reaction
A significant increase in oil prices is seen following the news release. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades near its intraday high at around $82.20.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/GBP remains steady above 0.8550 with four-week highs of 0.8574 at hand.
- Rising concerns about Burnham's welfare reform and a dovish BoE are weighing on the Pound.
- The pair is on a bullish channel with the next targets at 0.8575 and the 0.8600 area.
The Euro (EUR) is nursing moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as bulls failed to find acceptance above the 0.8575 resistance area on Tuesday. The pair, however, remains within the upper range of the 0.8500s with the near-term bullish bias intact, and the focus shifting towards the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting, due on Thursday.
Rabobank’s FX strategists warn that the Pound could come under pressure as markets reassess the UK policy outlook. They argue that “the potential for disappointment over a lack of rate rises from the Bank this year, coupled with the likelihood of political friction over budget cuts,” may turn market sentiment less supportive for sterling.
Technical Analysis: Bulls target 0.8575 and the 0.8600 area
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8566, hovering in the upper half of a bullish channel. Momentum indicators are in positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 64, after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram at slightly positive levels, hinting that upside pressure is still intact.
Immediate resistance is in the area between the mentioned 0.8575 area (July 2, 3, and 29 highs) and the channel cap, now around 0.8580. Above these levels, the next target is the late-June lows, around 0.8605.
On the downside, first support emerges at the 0.8550 area where Tuesday's lows meet the channel base. Below here, the July 23 low, near 0.8530, and July 17 and 20 highs in the 0.8510-0.8515 area are expected to challenge bears.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 11:20 GMT to correct the first bullet point, writing EUR/GBP and not EUR/USD as previously reported.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.26% | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.80% | 0.35% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.25% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.80% | 0.35% | 0.41% | |
| GBP | -0.26% | -0.25% | -0.39% | -0.18% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.83% | 0.38% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.18% | -0.10% | 0.70% | 0.28% | 0.34% | |
| AUD | -0.80% | -0.80% | -0.55% | -0.83% | -0.70% | -0.45% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.35% | -0.35% | -0.10% | -0.38% | -0.28% | 0.45% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | -0.41% | -0.15% | -0.35% | -0.34% | 0.40% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the Federal Funds Target Rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the July FOMC meeting. The bank’s base case is for an extended pause through 2026, with easing only resuming in 2Q and 4Q 2027 as transitory inflation pressures subside. However, it highlights rising risks of further rate hikes given oil and geopolitical developments.
Fed seen on prolonged policy pause
"In line with Bloomberg consensus expectations, the Fed is widely expected to keep the Federal Funds Target Rate (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July meeting."
"With the FOMC remaining divided and ongoing policy reviews being conducted by five task forces, our base case continues to be an extended pause through 2026, before the Fed resumes its easing cycle in 2Q and 4Q 2027 as transitory inflation pressures subside."
"That said, the risk of further rate hikes has increased, with upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments likely to play a key role in shaping policy expectations."
"OIS swaps continue to price in roughly a one-third probability of a 25bp rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting."
"Meanwhile, rates on contracts expiring next year declined by approximately 5bps, reflecting reduced expectations for more than two rate hikes over that period."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Summary of Deliberations to shed light on the July decision, focusing on how policymakers view inflation amid recent energy price moves and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast revisions. They look for confirmation that inflation expectations remain anchored, limited pass-through to core inflation, and any fresh comments on trade uncertainty after prior guidance on trade-related rate cuts was removed.
Focus on inflation expectations and trade
"The Bank of Canada's Summary of Deliberations will provide some added context for the July policy decision when published Wednesday afternoon, where we will be focused on the discussion around the evolution of the Bank's inflation outlook amid the recent pullback in energy prices and upward revisions to the Bank's CPI forecasts."
"We look for the minutes to note that inflation expectations remain anchored and that higher energy prices have not yet spilled into core inflation measures."
"We will also be looking for any comments around trade uncertainty after the Bank removed the language around new trade restrictions leading to potential rate cuts from its guidance in July."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD may have bottomed last week if markets maintain a constructive view on further geopolitical de-escalation. He argues a sustained move above 1.15 still requires dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) repricing and stabilised risk sentiment. With a light eurozone calendar, EUR/USD is expected to react mainly to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), potentially returning to the 1.1400–1.1450 range in coming days.
Euro outlook tied to Fed repricing
"The resumption of military strikes overnight is a reminder that caution remains warranted on EUR/USD. Even so, if markets are right to maintain a broadly constructive view on further de-escalation, there is a good chance the pair bottomed out last week. "
"For a sustainable move back above 1.15, two pieces are still missing: dovish Fed repricing, either through US data or communication, and a stabilisation in risk sentiment."
"While tech stocks’ independence from rates helped support EUR/USD during the spring, the current turmoil in the chip sector may now cap gains despite improving Middle East headlines."
"With little on today’s eurozone calendar, EUR/USD should take its cue from the FOMC. As a baseline reaction to a modest dovish Fed surprise, we look for a move back into the 1.1400-1.1450 range over the coming days."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports that the Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to weaken versus the Euro, with EUR/CHF reaching new highs as widening yield differentials favour the Euro. Markets now price further European Central Bank (ECB) hikes, while Bloomberg reports suggest the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may keep rates at 0.00% until 2027. The SNB appears comfortable with the inflation outlook and stands ready to sell Swiss Francs only against excessive appreciation.
ECB-SNB divergence pressures Swiss franc
"The Swiss franc has continued to weaken against the EUR at the start of this week resulting in EUR/CHF hitting a fresh high overnight at 0.9332."
"The euro-zone rate market has moved to price in a higher probability of the ECB delivering two further hikes this year."
"Plans for at least one more hike in September appears to be in place with Bloomberg having reported that ECB officials are prepared to raise rates again in September unless the inflation outlook improves markedly."
"In contrast, Bloomberg has reported this week that the SNB is set to keep rates on hold at 0.00% until the end of 2027 according to people familiar with the thinking inside the central bank."
"At the same time, the SNB continues to reiterate that it has an increased willingness to intervene to sell the Swiss franc to counter rapid and excessive appreciation which is currently not needed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.92 per troy ounce, up 1.36% from the $57.14 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.52% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 57.92 |
1 Gram | 1.86 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.73 on Wednesday, down from 70.50 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
