Forex News
- USD/JPY heads into the Bank of Japan decision pinned near its highest levels in decades.
- A quarter-point hike to 1% is largely priced, leaving the guidance and the Fed to drive the pair.
- The BoJ acts with Governor Ueda hospitalized and unable to vote, a day before the FOMC and a fresh dot plot.
USD/JPY is grinding into the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) June meeting above the 160.00 handle, a whisker from multi-decade highs, while the central bank meant to defend the Yen prepares to raise rates to a three-decade high without lifting the currency at all. A quarter-point step to 1% has been roughly 80% priced for weeks, leaving the decision nearly a non-event. What matters is the guidance, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision 24 hours later, and whether the BoJ still has any pull over a currency the carry trade keeps selling.
A hike the market has already spent
The Bank of Japan can do everything textbook policy prescribes and still watch the Yen sit on the floor. Lifting the benchmark to 1% sounds dramatic until you remember the Fed sits at 3.50% to 3.75%; even after Tuesday the rate gap stays near 275 basis points, wide enough to keep the carry trade paying. A fully priced tightening rarely rescues a currency on the day it lands; the bigger risk is that cautious, go-slow guidance simply sells the Yen on the fact.
A historic decision with an empty chair
The most consequential BoJ hike in thirty years arrives with a strange asterisk: Governor Kazuo Ueda will not be in the room to vote on it. Hospitalized for a liver infection, he will submit his views in writing while the meeting proceeds without him, the first regular policy decision ever taken with the governor absent.
The Fed then meets the next day under new Chair Kevin Warsh, his first decision since replacing Jerome Powell in May. Two of the planet's most important central banks set policy inside 48 hours, neither with its usual hand on the wheel.
The line in the sand has moved
Traders are no longer truly afraid of the 160.00 handle, the uncomfortable truth beneath this grind. Japanese authorities intervened around this level in 2024 and again in 2026, yet the pair climbed back above it each time. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) defends order rather than a number, reacting to the speed of a move more than its level, which is why a slow grind draws far less response than a violent spike.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has spent weeks escalating warnings and even floating joint intervention with Washington; the Yen drifts lower regardless. Some desks now read official tolerance as closer to 162.00 than 160.00, which leaves the market grinding toward that zone to see who blinks first.
Overbought and still climbing
The chart does nothing to argue with the carry story. On the daily timeframe the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits near the top of its range above 87, while the hourly reading hovers around 80, the kind of stretched momentum that usually begs for a pullback. Price keeps grinding higher instead, the signature of a flow-driven, one-way market.
Structurally the uptrend is intact, with price holding well above a rising 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 159.00 and recent dips bought close to 159.50.
The 48-hour gauntlet
This is a week where the calendar, not the chart, sets the risk. Tuesday brings the BoJ rate decision, statement, and scheduled press conference, followed late in the session by Japan's May trade balance and export figures. Wednesday then delivers the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, the updated dot plot, and Warsh's first press conference, any of which can reprice the Dollar leg in seconds.
Thursday closes the loop with Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, where core readings have run near 1.4% to 1.9% YoY; another firm print would validate the BoJ's tightening path. With two rate decisions and a major inflation print in three days, position sizing matters more than any chart level.
How to play it
Resistance: The 160.50 area caps the recent range and the cycle highs; a clean break opens room toward the 161.00 handle, with 162.00 the zone where intervention odds climb sharply.
Support: The 160.00 handle is the first floor bulls have defended again and again; below it, 159.50 and then the 50-period EMA near 159.00 mark where the grind stalls.
Bias: Higher while 160.00 holds. The rate gap, the trend, and stretched but rising momentum all point the same way; a priced hike does little to change that. The picture only flips on a hawkish surprise to the BoJ's path, a dovish Warsh pivot, or genuine intervention, each of which would move fast.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- US-Iran MOU promises Hormuz reopening and nuclear-program talks.
- Weaker Dollar supports AUD/USD before Warsh’s first Fed decision.
- RBA expected to hold, though inflation risks keep tone hawkish.
The Australian Dollar registered gains of over 0.37% on Monday as the US and Iran agreed on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the conflict and setting the stage for talks about Tehran’s nuclear program. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trade at 0.7072 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7041.
AUD/USD gains as Middle East breakthrough boosts risk appetite
Market sentiment improved amid the potential resolution of the Middle East conflict, even though the details of the agreement remain unknown. Nevertheless, what both parties have leaked is that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, the US Navy blockade lifted, that Iran would dilute enriched uranium inside its territory and that talks about the nuclear program will begin for 60 days.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.15% at 99.66, as Oil prices tumbled amid free navigation in the Persian Gulf, freeing over a fifth of the world's oil production.
Hence, eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, in which the US central bank, led by the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, is expected to hold rates unchanged. Fed officials will also update their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), though investors would be keen to hear Warsh's communication tone.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep the Cash Rate at 4.85%, after hiking thrice this year, spurred by the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict.
In the last meeting, RBA Governor Bullock commented that if second-round effects changed inflation expectations, higher rates would be needed. Nevertheless, she acknowledged that policy is a “bit” restrictive and that the RBA has room to “wait-and-see.”
Analysts at Morgan Stanley stated, “We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% at its 16 June meeting, following three consecutive hikes. The statement is still likely to lean hawkish as inflation pressures are broadening and the Board will remain alert to de-anchoring risk.”
Ahead, Australia’s economic docket will feature the RBA’s meeting. In the US, traders await Retail Sales, the US central bank's monetary policy decision, and jobless claims data.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7072, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds below the clustered simple moving averages around 0.7143. The broader structure still leans constructive thanks to a series of rising support trend lines from the 0.68–0.69 area, but the latest pullback and a subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the mid‑40s suggest fading upside momentum while the pair remains capped by overhead averages and trend resistance.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the simple moving average triple cluster near 0.7143, with the broader downward trend-line structure acting as an additional cap should the pair attempt a recovery. On the downside, buyers are expected to emerge along the sequence of ascending trend-line supports projecting from the 0.68–0.69 region, with any sustained break beneath these rising floors likely opening a deeper retracement within the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, June 16:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) lifted off 10-day lows to reach the 99.70 price zone even after Trump said it was “important that Oil is plummeting and stocks are rising.” However, caution remains as Trump also warned that there would be “no sanctions relief for Iran until they do what they are supposed to do.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.01% | -0.34% | 0.20% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.19% | -0.17% | 0.38% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.15% | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.32% | 0.25% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.28% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.42% | 0.10% | -0.38% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.03% | 0.06% | -0.34% | 0.18% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | 0.17% | 0.32% | 0.42% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.20% | -0.38% | -0.25% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.56% | -0.51% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.38% | 0.31% | -0.08% | 0.51% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose toward the 1.1580 level on Monday, but pulled back from resistance near 1.1620. Traders continue to assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy path after recent signals that policymakers could remain cautious if energy prices stay contained.
GBP/USD is also trading even near the 1.3410 level, with the Pound’s upside limited as investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming UK economic data and Bank of England commentary.
USD/JPY trades higher near the 160.40 level as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains unsupported by expectations around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision due on Tuesday.
AUD/USD rose on Monday to 0.7070, in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell about 4% to the $81.50 level after Trump’s comments that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened.
Gold jumped more than 2% to $4,320 as easing geopolitical tensions are thought to allow central banks to return to buying the precious metal.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, June 16:
- China Industrial Production (May)
- China Retail Sales (May)
- Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Germany CPI (May)
- Germany ZEW Survey (Jun)
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- Japan Trade Balance (May)
Wednesday, June 17:
- UK CPI (May)
- UK PPI (May)
- UK Retail Price Index (May)
- Eurozone HICP (May)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- New Zealand GDP (Q1)
Thursday, June 18:
- Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report
- UK Employment Data (Apr/May)
- Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
- Germany Buba Monthly Report
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
- New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey (Q2)
- New Zealand Trade Balance (May)
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
- Japan National CPI (May)
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Friday, June 19:
- Germany PPI (May)
- UK Retail Sales (May)
- Canada Retail Sales (Apr)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- NZD/USD closed Monday near its session low even as a powerful risk-on rally lifted global markets.
- A US-Iran framework deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz drove that rally.
- Falling Crude Oil prices now threaten the rate-hike story that has been the Kiwi's main pillar of support.
Monday played out as a textbook risk-on session, with global equities ripping higher and Crude Oil tumbling after Washington and Tehran unveiled a framework deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity currencies are built to thrive in exactly this kind of tape, so the New Zealand Dollar finishing as one of the weakest majors on the board is the day's real puzzle. NZD/USD spiked to its session high just above 0.5850 in early European hours, then leaked steadily lower to close near 0.5800.
The data gave it an excuse it ignored
The awkward detail is that the US numbers handed the Kiwi a second reason to climb. The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing survey for June collapsed to 5.7, far below the 14 expected and down from 19.6, while Industrial Production rose a limp 0.1% MoM against a 0.3% consensus. A soft US print like that normally pressures the Dollar and lifts NZD/USD.
That the Kiwi sold off into both a softer Dollar and a roaring risk rally is the whole point. The weakness was not imported from a strong Greenback; it was home-grown, and the domestic backdrop did nothing to help, with the Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) slipping to 47.5 over the weekend to mark a deeper services contraction.
Peace is the enemy of the rate trade
For weeks the Kiwi's resilience has rested on an unlikely benefactor, the Iran war itself. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% while warning it will need to raise rates to counter the inflation surge driven by higher Crude Oil, and markets now price a first hike as soon as July, with further increases pencilled in toward a peak near 4.0% in 2027. That hawkish repricing, rather than growth or risk appetite, is what has kept the Kiwi off its lows.
Strip the war premium out of Crude Oil and that logic begins to unravel. Brent slumped toward $83 and WTI toward $80 on Monday, a long way from the $126 conflict peak and already beneath the sub-$100 path the RBNZ had assumed for Crude Oil by the end of June. Cheaper fuel softens the inflation impulse, which weakens the case for higher rates and, with it, the Kiwi's strongest argument. What counts as good news for the world reads as bad news for the rate trade.
The week is built to punish conviction
The calendar offered a second reason to sell first and ask questions later, on top of a framework deal that still has to be signed before the week is out. Tuesday brings Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales for May, and as New Zealand's largest export market, China weighs on the Kiwi as heavily as anything domestic. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also decides on Tuesday, with a hold at 4.35% expected, a trans-Tasman signal the Kiwi cannot brush off.
The genuine event risk is concentrated on Wednesday, and there is plenty of it. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave rates near 3.75% when it reports at 18:00 GMT, so the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and a fresh dot plot will carry the message, and this is Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, adding its own uncertainty. Hours later, New Zealand's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lands, with growth pencilled near 0.9% QoQ. With that much binary risk stacked into 48 hours, trimming a crowded long looks less like panic and more like prudence.
Where the line gets drawn
Resistance: The session high just above 0.5850 is the first hurdle, reinforced by the cluster of daily 50- and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) bunched directly above it; a daily close back through that band reopens the 0.5900 handle.
Support: The 0.5800 handle, defended into Monday's close, is the immediate floor. A break there exposes the early-June low around 0.5750, and beneath that the April trough near 0.5700 returns to view.
Bias: Lower while NZD/USD trades under the 0.5850 moving-average cluster. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 31 and a close on the session lows argue for continuation, and with the war premium draining out of the rate story, rallies into resistance look like fades rather than reversals. The Fed and GDP double-header on Wednesday is the swing factor that can override the technical read in either direction.
NZD/USD 1-hour chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- The Dow notched a fresh intraday record on Monday as a preliminary US-Iran ceasefire deal pushed Crude Oil lower and lifted risk assets.
- The agreement is unsigned until Friday and leaves Iran's nuclear program and the timing of sanctions relief unresolved.
- Wednesday's FOMC decision, Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair, overshadows an otherwise ignorable data week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) punched to a fresh all-time intraday high on Monday, climbing around 1% as Wall Street cheered a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran. The catalyst is real enough; the framework reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade, and extends the existing ceasefire by 60 days, which sent Crude Oil sliding and pulled some heat out of the energy-driven inflation story.
What the rally is choosing not to dwell on is that none of this is actually signed. The deal is not due to be inked until Friday in Geneva. The thorniest pieces, Iran's nuclear program and the sequencing of sanctions relief, have been pushed into a later round of talks that may or may not deliver.
Announced loudly, written later
This administration has a well-documented habit of announcing an agreement with maximum fanfare, then letting the details surface afterward, smaller and softer than billed. The cleanest precedent sits inside this very conflict: the two-week ceasefire trumpeted on April 8 sparked a relief rally of more than 2.5% across US equities. The follow-up talks in Islamabad then collapsed; Washington answered with a naval blockade.
The same script runs through the trade file. The framework deals paraded through 2025, with the United Kingdom, China and others, were sold as breakthroughs; the China terms stayed conspicuously fuzzy, while counterparties like Switzerland later branded their own arrangement a non-binding memorandum of understanding. The takeaway for Monday's buyers is that a Sunday handshake is not a ratified treaty and Friday need not resemble the press release.
The data is a sideshow this week
None of the week's economic releases change that calculus. Monday's New York Empire State Manufacturing Index slumped to 5.7 against expectations near 14, with Industrial Production up a soft 0.1% in May; equities barely registered either print. Retail Sales on Wednesday morning will get a passing glance and little more. The week bends entirely around one event: the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision on Wednesday evening, the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with Kevin Warsh in the chair.
Warsh's debut is the real catalyst
The decision lands at 18:00 GMT. The rate itself is close to settled; CME FedWatch puts the probability of no change near 97%, holding the benchmark in its 3.50% to 3.75% range. What matters is the framing around it. June is a quarterly meeting, meaning it ships updated projections and a fresh dot plot; it also hands Warsh his first press conference at 18:30 GMT.
The bind for the new chair is real: Trump installed Warsh expecting lower rates. But inflation at a multi-year high and a hotter-than-expected jobs report have pushed that case back; options markets still assign roughly an 80% chance of at least one hike before year-end. If Warsh leans hawkish, the dovish hope baked into Monday's record starts to look misplaced; the fall in Crude Oil that helped power the rally only helps the Fed if the ceasefire genuinely holds.
Levels into Wednesday
Resistance: With the index printing a record near 51,950, the magnet above is the 52,000 handle; a clean break and hold there opens fresh blue-sky territory with little overhead to lean on.
Support: The first floor sits around the early-June breakout near 50,800, below which the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) close to 49,850 separates a healthy pullback from a deeper unwind. The 200-period EMA, near 47,900, marks the broader uptrend.
Bias: The setup remains firmly bullish, but hostage to headlines. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits mid-range near 49 and is turning higher, leaving momentum room to extend rather than reading overbought. A stalled signing on Friday or a hawkish Warsh on Wednesday could unwind the relief move about as fast as it arrived.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- USD/CHF holds an inverted head-and-shoulders structure above the 200-day SMA support.
- RSI remains above 50, though momentum edges slightly lower.
- Break above 0.8000 exposes 0.8042 and 0.8100 resistance.
USD/CHF retreats by over 0.34% on Monday amid most G8 FX currencies appreciating against the US Dollar, as the Middle East conflict eases following the US and Iran agreeing to a peace deal. The pair trades at 0.7943, after reaching a high of 0.7968.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the ‘inverted head-and-shoulders’ structure remains intact, as the USD/CHF pair approached the 200-day SMA at 0.7906, but buyers lifted the exchange rate towards 0.7950. Despite this, bulls are not out of the woods, as momentum edges lower, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) favors further upside for USD/CHF, with the index above its 50 neutral level.
The first resistance level for USD/CHF is 0.8000. A breach of the latter will expose the April 6 high at 0.8018, ahead of the March 31 daily high at 0.8042, which is also the inverted ‘head-and-shoulders’ objective. Once those levels are taken out, the 0.8100 is up next.
On the flip side, the USD/CHF first support would be the 200-day SMA at 0.7906. Below is the 0.7900 figure, followed by the 50- and 100-day SMAs, each at 0.7864 and 0.7835.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.04% | -0.36% | 0.15% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.20% | -0.15% | 0.38% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.13% | 0.04% | -0.32% | 0.24% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.28% | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.42% | 0.08% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.20% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.33% | 0.17% | -0.32% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.42% | 0.33% | 0.53% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.53% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 0.32% | -0.06% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- Silver reclaims 200-day SMA as double bottom pattern emerges.
- RSI improves from bearish territory, signaling buyers are stepping in.
- Break above $70.50 exposes 20-day SMA and $75.36 resistance.
Silver (XAG/USD) price registers gains of over 3% on Monday as the white metal reclaims the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $68.59 amid geopolitical news linked to the US-Iran conflict. Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and falling Oil prices pushed the XAG/USD pair past the $70.00 figure for the first time in the last five days.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver seems to have formed a ‘double bottom’ chart pattern, which could open the door for further gains if the white metal remains above the 200-day SMA. Still, momentum remains mildly bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but it is aiming higher, suggesting buyers are moving in.
If XAG/USD rises past the $70.50 figure, look for a test of the 20-day SMA at $72.42. Above this level is the 50-day SMA at $75.36, followed by the 100-day SMA at $79.29. Once Silver hurdles those two levels, the next stop would be the May 13 high at $89.36.
Downwards, Silver’s first support would be the 200-day SMA at $68.59. A breach of the latter will expose the $65.00 psychological figure. Below this level, the next area of interest is the June 11 cycle low at $61.51.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The US Dollar trades under pressure on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions weigh on safe-haven demand.
- A hawkish Fed outlook and resilient US economy continue to underpin the Greenback.
- Technically, the DXY remains above key moving averages, although momentum indicators suggest bullish momentum is easing.
The US Dollar (USD) trades on the back foot against its major peers on Monday as traders trim safe-haven positions amid improving market sentiment after the United States and Iran agreed on a framework peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.57 at the time of writing after slipping to a one-week low near 99.38 earlier in the day.
The downside in the Greenback appears limited in the near term as traders remain reluctant to place aggressive bearish bets before the final agreement is formally signed on Friday.
Meanwhile, markets are also awaiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
What's next for the US Dollar?
Even as geopolitical tensions ease and Oil prices move lower, the US Dollar is likely to remain supported by a hawkish Fed outlook.
Before the war, markets were expecting at least two Fed rate cuts this year. However, that outlook has shifted as the inflationary impact of higher energy prices pushed inflation sharply higher in recent months, prompting traders to price in the possibility of a rate hike by year-end.
While a further decline in Oil prices could lead markets to scale back those rate-hike expectations, the Fed is unlikely to resume rate cuts until inflation shows clearer signs of moving back toward the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, a stabilizing labor market and resilient economic activity give policymakers room to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period.
On the other hand, any setback in the peace process or renewed tensions in the Middle East could revive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Technical analysis:
The near-term bias is constructive as the DXY holds clearly above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting a supportive underlying trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the mid-50s, hinting at a consolidative pause rather than outright exhaustion, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) drifts toward the signal line with a fading positive profile, indicating moderating bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal.
On the downside, immediate support is now reinforced by the recent price pivot at 99.50, with the 50-day SMA at 98.88 offering the next cushion and the 200-day and 100-day SMAs around 98.70 forming a broader demand zone should a deeper pullback unfold.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the recent horizontal cap near 100.50, where a break would open the way for further gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.42% | 0.07% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.33% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.36% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.13% | 0.19% | 0.12% | -0.29% | 0.25% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.46% | 0.00% | -0.46% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.37% | 0.10% | -0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.46% | 0.37% | 0.52% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.36% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.52% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.37% | -0.05% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
