Forex News
Societe Generale strategists observe that EUR/PLN has recently rebounded after defending an ascending trend line from February 2025 near 4.2100. The pair continues to oscillate around the 200-DMA, lacking clear direction. They expect short-term price action to remain confined between 4.2100 and 4.2600, with a break of either boundary needed to confirm a new trend.
Polish Zloty held in technical range
"In Poland, the forecast of today’s NBP meeting is no change at 3.75%. A hawkish statement or press conference tomorrow by Governor Glapiński could drive EUR/PLN back below 200dma (4.2437). Renewed policy tightening is unlikely based on the assumption that inflation hovers inside the tolerance band over the medium term."
"The upside surprise in April [CPI] was largely fuel and energy led despite price caps and tax cuts. Vigilance over oil prices, second round effects and the possibility of future tightening should keep front end paying interest intact in the short term."
"Having said that, forwards already imply up to four hikes over 12 months to 4.75% and we are of the view that market pricing should gradually subside, boosting the front end."
"EUR/PLN recently defended the ascending trend line drawn from February 2025 near 4.2100, resulting in a rebound. The pair has experienced crisscross moves around the 200-DMA, highlighting a lack of clear direction. "
"Short-term price action could remain contained within a range defined by the limits of 4.2100 and the recent pivot high at 4.2600. A move beyond either of these bands will be crucial in confirming a directional move."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD rallies by more than 1% on Wednesday, hitting an eight-week high above 0.5950.
- Comments by US officials hinting at the end of Iran's war have boosted risk appetite.
- New Zealand Dollar bulls are aiming for the 0.5965 area.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is rallying sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as comments from US officials suggesting the war with Iran might be nearing its end have boosted investors’ appetite for risk. The risk-sensitive Kiwi has appreciated more than 1% so far today, hitting a fresh eight-week high of 0.5953 from Tuesday's lows of 0.5856.
US President Donald Trump boosted market sentiment earlier on Wednesday when he announced a pause in the plan to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing advances in the peace negotiations with Iran. Previously, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed that the objectives of the Iran war had been achieved, suggesting that the US is not interested in resuming hostilities.
Technical Analysis: The next bullish target is 0.5965
NZD/USD is heading north after breaking a key resistance area around 0.5930, which has been holding upside attempts since mid-April.
Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are positive. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) nears overbought territory, but is not yet there, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains in slightly positive territory, together suggesting that there is room for further appreciation.
Bulls are aiming for the March 10 high at 0.5965, where they might find some resistance. Further up, the area between the March 1 high around the 0.6000 round level and the February 26 high, near 0.6015, will come into focus. On the downside, the mentioned resistance at 0.5930 is likely to act as support on a potential bearish reversal. Below here, the next bearish target would be Tuesday's low, around 0.5855.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.33% | -0.98% | -0.21% | -0.86% | -1.02% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | -0.01% | -0.64% | 0.14% | -0.52% | -0.71% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.33% | 0.00% | -0.64% | 0.15% | -0.51% | -0.71% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.98% | 0.64% | 0.64% | 0.77% | 0.11% | -0.07% | 0.68% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.77% | -0.65% | -0.83% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.52% | 0.51% | -0.11% | 0.65% | -0.17% | 0.54% | |
| NZD | 1.02% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 0.07% | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.71% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.68% | 0.12% | -0.54% | -0.71% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/INR declined as the US Dollar struggled on easing safe-haven demand amid signs of Middle East de-escalation.
- India HSBC Services PMI rose to 58.8 in April from 57.9 flash, rebounding after March’s 13-month low of 57.5.
- India’s forex reserves fell from $728.5 billion, while equity outflows hit $19 billion in March and April.
USD/INR extends losses for the second successive day, trading around 95.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the Indian Rupee (INR) pares its daily gains following the release of HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. India Services PMI was revised upward to 58.8 in April from the preliminary estimate of 57.9, following March’s 13-month low of 57.5. The latest reading signaled the strongest expansion since last November, driven by a quicker increase in new orders and output.
India’s HSBC Composite PMI came in at 58.2 in April, slightly below the flash estimate of 58.3 but higher than 57.0 in the previous month, indicating continued and historically strong growth in private sector activity. Expansion remained broad-based, with both manufacturing output and services activity advancing at solid rates.
The USD/INR pair weakened as the US Dollar (USD) declined on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by signs of de-escalation in Middle East tensions. Washington declared an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faces fewer headwinds due to softer oil prices. West Texas Intermediate continues to decline, trading near $97.90 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices are easing amid fading tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump said that the US military would temporarily pause “Project Freedom” to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump added that the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries and follows what he described as “tremendous military success” during a US campaign against Iran.
Indian equities opened higher on Wednesday, supported by the decline in oil prices after Trump signaled that a potential peace agreement with Iran could be within reach. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold domestic equities worth 36.22 billion rupees ($380.54 million) on a net basis on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased equities worth 26.03 billion rupees, per Reuters.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades near 95.00 after pulling back from fresh record highs
USD/INR trades around 95.10 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias as the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern.
USD/INR keeps a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price over these trend measures suggests underlying demand remains in control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 stays in positive but not overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive though no longer in an extreme state.
The USD/INR pair may rebound toward the fresh record high of 95.53, which was recorded on May 5. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.72, aligned with the lower boundary of the channel.
(The story was corrected on May 6 at 09.03 GMT, adding the job positions of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US President Donald Trump in the third and fourth paragraphs, respectively.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.69% | -0.77% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.08% | -0.47% | -0.57% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.50% | -0.59% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.64% | -0.71% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.55% | -0.63% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.69% | 0.47% | 0.50% | 0.64% | 0.55% | -0.07% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 0.77% | 0.57% | 0.59% | 0.71% | 0.63% | 0.07% | 0.74% | |
| INR | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.58% | -0.74% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects Norges Bank to keep rates at 4.0% but maintain a distinctly hawkish tone compared with the Riksbank. With Norwegian inflation above target, the bank projects one or two hikes by year-end and may act in June if Iran-related risks persist. This backdrop favours a gradual EUR/NOK decline and a sustained NOK/SEK break above parity.
Hawkish hold underpins Norwegian Krone outlook
"Much like the Riksbank, it will likely sit on the sidelines in May and keep the policy rate at 4%, but it will sound significantly more hawkish than its Nordic counterpart. After all, inflation rates in Norway - at 3.6% (headline rate) and 3.0% (core rate) - are well above the inflation target. This is why it reversed course in March and now expects the policy rate to rise once or twice by the end of the year."
"Nevertheless, I think it will still be too early for an interest rate move tomorrow. Norges Bank will certainly want to wait a little longer to see how the Iran conflict unfolds before taking concrete action. It has already signaled its willingness to raise rates and will continue to underscore this tomorrow. In June, however, based on the new monetary policy report with possible new forecasts, it may raise the policy rate if it becomes truly necessary, should the war in the Middle East drag on and increase the risks to inflation and inflation expectations."
"Tomorrow's interest rate meeting itself is likely to be relatively neutral for the NOK, unless Norges Bank surprises with a hike at this point in time. As an energy exporter, Norway is in a better position in the current crisis than the euro area or Sweden. Therefore, EUR/NOK is likely to continue trending slowly lower, and NOK/SEK is likely to break through parity on a sustainable basis."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/GBP flat lines around 0.8635 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Traders brace for the local elections in the UK on Thursday.
- ECB kept interest rates unchanged last week, but signaled that a rate hike in June is increasingly likely due to rising inflation.
The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8635 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the upcoming UK local elections on Thursday.
Voters will elect representatives to the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) and the Senedd in Wales. Uncertainty regarding the election results has contributed to UK government bond yields (gilts) hitting their highest levels in nearly 30 years.
Commerzbank analysts suggest that a poor performance for the Labour government could increase political risk, potentially pushing EUR/GBP toward 0.8900 in the coming weeks.
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) held the interest rates steady at their April policy meeting last week. However, the ECB has adopted a more hawkish tone, hinting at potential hikes this year. This, in turn, could provide some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling (GBP).
ECB policymakers Joachim Nagel said on Monday that the ECB may need to raise interest rates in June if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly in the coming weeks.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
UOB analysts report that the US Dollar index DXY posted another small gain as markets digested a four-week ceasefire in the Middle East and reduced fears of a renewed US-Iran conflict. They highlight upcoming Fed speeches, noting that market focus will likely shift to the US Treasury's quarterly refunding details.
Broad Dollar stays modestly supported
"The broad dollar index (DXY) eked out another small gain overnight of 0.1% to settle at 98.483 as the four-week ceasefire in the Middle East held and the US downplayed the prospect of a return to active war with Iran."
"Markets were relatively calmer overnight as the four-week ceasefire in the Middle East remained and the US downplayed the prospect of a return to active war with Iran, despite President Trump remarking that the Iranian war conflict could persist for another two to three weeks."
"Broad USD gained tad higher as oil prices remained elevated. On the economic front, job openings were little changed in Mar while hiring rebounded as the labor market showed continued signs of stabilization. Separate figures showed a pickup in new-home sales. The services expansion cooled in Apr as order growth slowed."
"NY Fed President John Williams projected that the effect of tariffs could phase out from the inflation rate in the coming quarters, though the impact "has not yet fully played out" while Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that rising energy costs, which was already elevated due to increased electricity demand from data centers, could be made worse by the Iran war, depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed."
"Tonight’s US data releases are light with only MBA mortgage applications data is due for week ending 1 May (prior reading: -1.6%) and Apr’s ADP employment change (est. 120k vs. 62k prior). However, attention is very likely to be on the announcement of the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement."
"For tonight, Fed’s Musalem is scheduled to speak at the Mississippi Bankers Association"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that Brent Oil has fallen below US$110 per barrel as President Trump pauses a US-led effort to help ships exit the Strait of Hormuz while talks with Iran continue. Wan stresses that disruptions at the Strait affect not only Oil prices but also broader product shortages, leaving more import-dependent economies particularly exposed to various risk scenarios.
Hormuz tensions weigh on Brent Oil
"Brent oil prices fell below US$110/bbl and the Dollar weakened, as President Trump said he would pause a US-led effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if an agreement with Iran to end the war could be finalised."
"Overall, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz as we have been highlighting over the past two months is more than just about oil prices, but also about potential shortages across a whole host of products including energy, petrochemicals and fertilisers."
"Countries which are more dependent on the Middle East for oil, coupled with those which have less capacity to switch over to a domestic energy production mix and which also depend more on energy and food for imports and consumption are overall more vulnerable to a range of scenarios."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
-Danske Research Team highlights a strong rebound in global equities, led by US technology and semiconductor names, with Intel, Qualcomm and Micron up double digits. Asian markets, including Korea and Shenzhen, also rallied, while European equities lagged due to sector composition. General cyclicals and small caps gained on reassuring US ceasefire comments.
Tech leadership and cyclical catch-up
"Equities rebounded on Tuesday. S&P 500 0.8% and small cap Russell 2000 1.8%. Tech continued to lead the market, but preference shifted from software to semis. Intel, Qualcomm and Micron all surged, up 11-13%."
"Semi heavy Korea is surging 6% this morning (70% ytd, 180% LTM) and Shenzhen 2.5%, following the holiday yesterday. While Stoxx 600 gained 2% the last month, S&P 500 rallied 10%. Sector composition explains this underperformance, not energy prices alone."
"So, tech continued in jaw dropping speed, with Asia and US the prime beneficiaries. However, general cyclicals also rebounded yesterday, along with small caps, following reassuring comments about the ceasefire from the US admin."
"Regional banks, materials and industrials were up between 1-2%. Stoxx 600 gained 0.7%"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that geopolitical developments around the Iran conflict remain the primary driver for EUR/USD, outweighing upcoming US data such as ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) . Praefcke notes that recent US employment figures have been volatile and unlikely to shift the Dollar meaningfully. EUR/USD is seen staying in its recent range unless the Middle East situation clearly escalates or de-escalates.
Iran conflict seen capping EUR/USD moves
"It’s worth taking another look at the macroeconomic data in the coming days. After all, the new US employment figures are on the agenda. Yesterday kicked things off with the JOLTS Job Openings (which were somewhat softish), followed today by the ADP Index and then the official jobs report on Friday. In this regard, a strong ADP Index could give the USD another slight boost, while a disappointing NFP report on Friday could weigh on it again."
"Since employment figures have been volatile in recent months and have not sent clear signals, they are likely to remain under close scrutiny. However, I doubt we will be any wiser than before, as job growth in April was likely relatively modest, meaning that once again, no clear direction in employment is likely to emerge. In this respect, the data (barring any surprising outliers) is likely to have little impact on the US dollar."
"In my view, the situation remains the same: as long as there is no sign that the war in the Middle East might come to an end, all other issues are secondary for the time being anyway. In this regard, I do not expect the upcoming US data to provide any significant momentum for the USD over the course of the week. Only a clear direction in the Iran conflict - de-escalation or renewed escalation - is likely to cause EUR/USD to break out of the range we have been seeing for several weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
