Forex News
- Indian Gold ETFs see increased demand in April, posting an 11th consecutive month of inflows.
- The increase in inflows comes as Gold spot prices stabilize after March’s sharp decline.
- Increasing ETF demand tends to support spot prices, which have been hovering between $4,400 and $4,900 since late March.
Indian investors continue to pile up their bets on Gold via Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), contributing to the rebound in demand for the precious metal as spot prices stabilize after March’s sharp decline.
India's Gold ETFs extended their inflow streak to an eleventh consecutive month in April. Net inflows recorded $297.2 million, 68% more than the $176.6 million seen in March, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC).
The interest of Indian investors in Gold ETFs has been persistent in the past year. Even in March, when Gold prices fell by a sharp 11%, these investment vehicles saw inflows from the country even as investors from most other geographies opted to leave.
India contributed to the overall rebound in interest in Gold ETFs in April. Global physically backed Gold ETFs recorded inflows of $6.6 billion in the month, partly reversing March’s outflows, with the largest inflows coming from the United Kingdom (UK), with $2.1 billion, the United States ($845 million) and Hong Kong ($732 million).
Positive flows via ETFs are a bellwether for spot prices as investor demand via ETFs tends to directly impact the physical market.
Gold prices have traded broadly rangebound since the end of March, within a band of between $4,400 and $4,900. While geopolitics keeps the precious’ metal safe-haven appeal intact, the quick hawkish repricing of global central banks’ rate outlook is also capping gains.
April’s ETF rebound shows that Gold has somewhat regained its safe-haven appeal. While investor demand through ETFs could keep providing a solid floor for the precious metal, any significant gains would need a decline in energy prices and messages from central banks that the current plans to keep interest rates at high levels are no longer on the table.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- WTI drops over 2% as US-Iran deal speculation builds.
- Traders focus on Hormuz headlines and Tehran’s pending response.
- Strong US jobs data fails to offset weak fuel sentiment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, falls some 2.49% on Friday, poised to end the week with losses of over 7.39%, amid growing speculation that the US and Iran will reach an agreement to end the conflict.
Oil heads for weekly loss as Hormuz reopening hopes grow
Market mood remains positive, even as tensions rise after the US and Iran exchanged fire overnight. In the meantime, Washington waits for Tehran’s response to the 14-point memorandum, which, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would be ready later in the day.
Analysts cited by Reuters reported that the Oil trade is mostly focused on Iran’s war headlines and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, Baker Hughes reported that drillers added Oil and natural gas rigs for the third consecutive week. The rig count, an indicator of future output, increased by one to 548 in the week to Friday, yet, according to Baker Hughes, it remains down 30 rigs, or 5%, compared to this period a year ago.
This, along with a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, should push WTI prices lower. In that outcome, inflationary pressures would ease, opening the door to further easing, particularly by the Federal Reserve.
Otherwise, an escalation of the conflict would open the door to further upside and push WTI prices back above $100.
Data from the US showed a strong jobs report, with Nonfarm Payrolls in April crushing estimates, rising to 115K, well above the expected 62K. At the same time, US Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, deteriorated to its all-time low in May, as households feel the pain from high gasoline prices.
WTI Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $92.47. The contract holds a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the latest triple simple moving average cluster around $91.98 and comfortably above both active rising trend-line supports, suggesting the broader uptrend is intact despite the recent pullback from this month’s highs. Momentum is more neutral, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index easing to about 48, hinting at consolidation rather than outright exhaustion on either side.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the $92.00–$92.50 area, where spot trades just over the clustered simple moving averages at $91.98; a sustained break below here would expose the higher rising trend-line region around $89.00, ahead of the deeper structural uptrend support tied to the earlier line near $80.82. With no clear overhead reference levels in the dataset, any recovery above the current area would effectively extend the existing uptrend, leaving the focus on whether buyers can continue to defend the nearby moving average and trend-line floors as volatility rebuilds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that any relief from a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for Aluminium will likely be short‑lived. Guinea, which supplies 40% of global bauxite, plans to cap exports at 150 million tons, nearly 20% below last year, a move expected to support bauxite prices and, over time, Aluminium prices.
Guinea quota tightens raw material availability
"However, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could turn out to provide only short-term relief. Over the course of the year, a shortage is emerging in a key raw material for aluminium production: the government of Guinea, the market leader that produces 40% of global bauxite, plans to restrict its bauxite exports."
"A maximum volume of 150 million tons is planned, which would be a cut of almost 20% compared with the previous year’s level. The aim of this measure is to support global bauxite prices and thus the margins of mining companies."
"If the quota of 150 million tons remains in place, exports would weaken significantly over the remainder of the year, which should support bauxite prices and, in the medium term, aluminium prices. Around 35 million tons of aluminium can be produced from 150 million tons of bauxite."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 97.90 region on Friday, pressured by improving risk sentiment and easing safe-haven demand after reports suggested the United States (US) and Iran are still attempting to preserve a fragile ceasefire framework despite renewed military incidents in the Middle East.
Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations remain active and that both sides are trying to avoid a broader escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. The softer geopolitical tone reduced demand for the US Dollar (USD), allowing risk-sensitive currencies to recover ground. At the same time, Oil prices trimmed part of their gains, helping ease fears of another major inflation shock.
The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed that the US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, surpassing market expectations of around 60,000. The Unemployment Rate remained stable at 4.3%. However, Average Hourly Earnings showed a monthly slowdown, strengthening the belief that inflation pressures may continue to ease, even as the labor market stays resilient.
Additional downward pressure on the US Dollar emerged after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey experienced a sharp decline, reflecting households' concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Treasury yields also decreased, contributing to the softer tone of the USD.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.50% | -0.19% | 0.13% | -0.49% | -0.42% | -0.51% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | -0.08% | 0.26% | 0.57% | -0.05% | 0.07% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.34% | 0.65% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.26% | -0.34% | 0.32% | -0.33% | -0.22% | -0.31% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | -0.57% | -0.65% | -0.32% | -0.65% | -0.54% | -0.63% | |
| AUD | 0.49% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.33% | 0.65% | 0.12% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | 0.42% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.22% | 0.54% | -0.12% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.51% | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.31% | 0.63% | -0.01% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1780 region, benefiting from the weaker USD as traders continue to monitor expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets remain attentive to whether persistent energy-price volatility could delay future rate cuts in the Eurozone.
GBP/USD surged near the 1.3620 area, supported by the broad USD pullback and relatively stable United Kingdom (UK) economic expectations. However, upside momentum remains cautious as traders continue assessing geopolitical developments and global growth risks.
USD/JPY is falling toward the 156.60 zone, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthening amid lower US Treasury yields. Safe-haven demand for the Yen remains active amid lingering uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and global trade routes.
AUD/USD is rising near the 0.7240 region, supported by improving market sentiment and reduced demand for the Greenback. The Australian Dollar (AUD) also found support after investors welcomed signs that geopolitical tensions may not escalate further in the immediate term.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices are retreating from recent highs but remain elevated above $95.30 per barrel as markets remain cautious about the continued halt of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold prices are holding firm near $4,720, supported by lingering geopolitical uncertainty and lower US yields, although easing safe-haven flows are limiting stronger upside momentum.
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, May 11:
- CN April CPIs; CN April PPI YoY
- US April Existing Home Sales Change MoM
- UK April BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales YoY
Tuesday, May 12:
- AU May Westpac Consumer Confidence
- EU April HICPs
- DE May ZEW Survey Current Situation; DE May ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment
- AU Budget Release
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US April CPIs; US April Core CPIs
- US April Monthly Budget Statement
- JP March Current Account n.s.a.
Wednesday, May 13:
- AU Q1 Wage Price Index QoQ
- NZ Q2 RBNZ Inflation Expectations QoQ
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY
- EU Q1 Employment Change QoQ Prel
- EU Q1 GDP s.a. QoQ Prel; EU Q1 GDP s.a. YoY Prel
- EU March Industrial Production s.a. MoM
- US April PPIs; US April Core PPIs
Thursday, May 14:
- AU May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- UK March GDP MoM; UK Q1 GDP QoQ Prel; UK Q1 GDP YoY Prel
- UK March Industrial Production MoM; UK March Manufacturing Production MoM
- DE April HICP YoY
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US April Retail Sales MoM; US April Retail Sales Control Group; US April Retail Sales ex Autos MoM
- NZ April Business NZ PMI
Friday, May 15:
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY; FR April CPI YoY
- US May NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- US April Industrial Production MoM
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, May 11:
- ECB's Cipollone speech
Tuesday, May 12:
- Fed's Williams speech
- ECB's Elderson speech
- Fed's Goolsbee speech
Wednesday, May 13:
- BoE's Mann speech
- Fed's Kashkari speech
- ECB's Lane speech
- ECB's President Lagarde speech
Thursday, May 14:
- ECB's President Lagarde speech
- Fed's Schmid speech
- Fed's Hammack speech
- Fed's Williams speech
- Fed's Barr speech
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
ING’s Peter Virovacz notes that Hungary’s inflation accelerated in April but remained a positive surprise versus expectations, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Core inflation and other underlying measures still look favourable, suggesting second‑round effects are limited. ING’s base case sees inflation rising toward 4.0–4.5% by year-end, averaging around 3.0–3.5% in 2026, with significant upside risks from geopolitics and energy.
Inflation outlook and policy implications
"According to the latest data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HSCO), inflation in April accelerated further, clearly steering away from the decade-low level seen in February. Still, the latest print is a clear positive surprise, as it implies somewhat less price pressure than market consensus had feared. Consumer prices were 2.1% higher year-on-year, while the average price level rose by 0.4% month-on-month."
"The core inflation rate, which is adjusted for volatile items including changes in fuel prices, still looks good. This suggests that second-round effects are not yet widespread. The acceleration to 2.2% year-on-year is not a figure that should cause concern."
"Our latest quick estimate suggests that year-on-year inflation could rise to around 3% in the summer and reach 4.0–4.5% by the end of the year, according to our base case scenario. Therefore, although inflation is rising from a decade-low starting point, the pace of acceleration is still fairly contained. This leaves room for headline inflation to average around 3.0–3.5% in 2026."
"In this highly uncertain environment, it is unlikely that today's inflation data will materially shift the stance of monetary policymakers in the near term. That said, we would not rule out a rate cut or a rate hike later this year; the direction will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and whether the Hungarian forint can strengthen significantly. According to our base case scenario, we expect the base rate to remain at 6.25% throughout the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
