Forex News
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to start raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from the September 2026 meeting, having previously forecast the first move in February 2027. Newnaha anticipates a steady sequence of 25 bps hikes through February 2027, with the cash rate peaking at 3.25% and not moving above neutral.
Pre-emptive hikes seen as unlikely
"There has been a clear shift in the RBNZ's monetary policy thinking since the Feb RBNZ meeting."
"At the April meeting, the general discussion amongst Board members surrounded the timing of any increase in the OCR rather than whether any eventual increase is appropriate."
"Our new forecast is for the RBNZ to begin hiking from the Sep'26 meeting, bringing forward the first hike from Feb'27."
"The conditions for the Bank to deliver pre-emptive hikes have not been met, implying it's less likely the RBNZ hikes in May and/or July."
"Unless the RBNZ highlights a new set of conditions to hike pre-emptively, the Sep meeting is likely the first that the RBNZ can justify hiking."
"The risk to our cash rate call is for the RBNZ to begin hiking before the Sep meeting if it reveals a new set of conditions to hike preemptively."
"We expect the RBNZ to flag a steady series of 25bps hikes taking the cash rate to 3.25% by its Feb'27 meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Oil price rises to near $102.75 due to a prolonged global energy supply crisis.
- US President Trump sees a very good chance that a deal with Iran could be reached soon.
- Tehran said that its focus is on ending the war at this stage.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is up 0.7% higher to near $102.75 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price trades higher as the global energy crisis remains intact due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Financial market participants remain uncertain over the Hormuz future as the United States (US) and Iran have not reached a deal yet. However, latest comments from US President Donald Trump showed on Monday that Washington had “very positive development” in talks with Iran and that there was “a very good chance” they could reach a deal, The Guardian reported.
On Monday, a spokesperson from Iran’s Foreign Ministry also said that negotiations with the US through Pakistan are still ongoing and Tehran is “focused on ending the war at this stage”.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds, and ending US blockade on Iran are major demands in the new proposal delivered.
Meanwhile, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year could weigh slightly on the oil price’s upside.
WTI technical analysis
WTI US Oil trades higher at around $102.75 as of writing. The oil price reflects a bullish bias as it holds well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near $97.50, where a pullback could attract dip-buying interest as long as this level holds on a daily closing basis. A sustained break below this moving average would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose a deeper correction toward the May 11 low of $93.34. Looking up, the Oil price aims to extend its advance towards an over two-month high of $107.35.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/CAD loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar holds ground on higher oil prices.
- WTI may decline as Middle East tensions ease after President Trump paused a planned military strike on Iran.
- ECB's Yannis Stournaras stated a modest interest-rate increase could temper inflation without causing economic damage.
EUR/CAD pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 1.6000 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds ground against the Euro (EUR) due to higher oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $102.20 per barrel at the time of writing. However, Crude oil prices may decline amid easing Middle East concerns after reports that United States President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered a pause on a planned US military attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday. This decision reportedly followed appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. However, Trump also warned that the US remains prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault on Iran if a deal is not reached.
Canada’s March inflation data had already highlighted the impact of elevated energy prices on domestic consumer prices, keeping markets alert to renewed upside inflation risks. Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, matching the highest level in one year. Still, the Bank of Canada (BoC) signaled at its latest meeting that it does not see high risks of energy-driven inflation becoming entrenched and opted to leave interest rates unchanged.
The downside of the EUR/CAD cross could be restrained as the Euro (EUR) may gain ground due to hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers. ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said over the weekend that a modest ECB interest-rate increase could temper inflation without causing economic damage.
The majority of economists from the Reuters poll, around 85%, indicated that the ECB would raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in June, up from just over half expecting that before the April meeting.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose writes that Polish core inflation has firmed but remains manageable, driven mainly by external energy shocks rather than domestic policy errors. He argues this supports a data‑dependent, wait‑and‑see stance from National Bank of Poland (NBP), with rate hikes unlikely unless inflation exceeds 3.5% for a prolonged period, and sees limited additional downside for the zloty despite recent underperformance.
External shock keeps NBP on hold
"Poland’s latest CPI data confirm that inflation pressures have firmed, but the underlying trend still looks manageable."
"So far, then, core inflation has only slightly accelerated from its February trough, and while this is a reversal of earlier “mission accomplished” narratives, it is not evidence of a new, broad-based inflation shock."
"If geopolitical tensions ease and energy markets normalise, the recent uptick should prove temporary and both headline and core inflation can reasonably be expected to drift back toward NBP’s target."
"For monetary policy, this argues for patience rather than an immediate shift to a hiking stance."
"Unless inflation were to move progressively above 3.5% over an extended period, rate hikes are unlikely – unchanged rates through to year-end remains the most plausible baseline."
"The zloty has been the top underperformer among CE3 over the past year – while these data will not support the currency, they are no reason for additional pressure either."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley, Andrzej Szczepaniak and David Seif highlight a softer UK labour market, with falling payrolls, rising unemployment and weaker vacancies. They stress that labour data lag the Iran war shock, but see current softness as the starting point. Nomura expects the Bank of England to hold rates in June, then hike in July 2026 before later cuts in 2027.
Softer jobs data and BoE rate path
"There were several softer elements in today’s UK labour market report, with a 100k fall in payrolls (though this is prone to revision), a rise in the unemployment rate, weak private sector regular pay growth and declining vacancies."
"We highlight that the labour market is a lagging indicator, so even though we have March and April data in this report, we would not expect the impact of the Iran war to show clearly for some time. Yet, the softer data today show the starting point for the economy at the beginning of the war, and it is likely the war will add to softness in future reports."
"The Bank of England (BoE) sees the unemployment rate rising further (to peaks of 5.5-5.7% across its three scenarios from the latest Monetary Policy Report). We expect it to leave its rates on hold at its next meeting on 18 June, as policymakers wait for more evidence on the effects of the war, and today’s soft data add to the argument to be cautious about hiking rates."
"We then expect the BoE to raise rates in July 2026 to 4.00%, to show it is taking concerns about second-round inflation effects seriously. A soft labour market could limit arguments that there will be notable second-round effects from the current energy shock. However, we only have one 25bp hike in our forecast, and we also expect policymakers to cut rates twice to what we think will be close to neutral in July and November 2027 (to 3.50%)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the lowest level since late March.
- The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks underpins the USD, exerting pressure on the bullion.
- Fed rate hike bets further lend support to the USD and weigh on the non-yielding commodity.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the early European session on Tuesday and remains well within striking distance of the lowest level since March 30, set the previous day. Despite renewed hopes for a potential US-Iran peace deal, investors remain skeptical amid major disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations assist the US Dollar (USD) to regain positive traction and act as a headwind for the non-yielding bullion.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is holding off a planned attack on Iran at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Trump further added that negotiations are not taking place, fueling optimism over a long-elusive diplomatic agreement to end the Iran conflict. The market reaction so far has been muted amid mixed signals. In fact, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded to Trump’s “clock is ticking” warning and vowed not to bow before any power, and added that Tehran had entered the dialogue with dignity, authority, and the preservation of the nation’s rights. Trump, on the other hand, said that he has instructed the US military to remain prepared for a full-scale attack on Iran if a deal is not reached. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and underpins the USD's reserve currency status.
Meanwhile, markets have completely priced out any possibility of Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. Instead, they are now betting on at least one interest rate hike before year-end amid rising energy and consumer inflation fears. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 40% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) at the December policy meeting. Adding to this, inflation and fiscal concerns keep the yield on the long-term 30-year US government bond near its highest level since 2023, which turns out to be another factor offering support to the Greenback and undermining demand for the Gold price. Traders, however, seem hesitant and look to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for more cues about the Fed's interest rate path before placing directional bets on the XAU/USD pair.
In the meantime, the market focus will remain on further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, which could inject volatility across the global financial markets and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Gold could slide further towards retesting $4,500 horizontal support
From a technical perspective, the precious metal holds below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bearish despite the recent rebound from lower levels. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, but its latest reading at 3.32 hints at waning upside momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51.7 suggests only modest bullish pressure rather than a decisive trend.
This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for acceptance below the $4,500 psychological mark and some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the $4,480 region, before positioning for deeper losses. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-hour SMA at $4,625.58, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more constructive recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- Dow Jones futures hold ground as sentiment improved after reports that Trump delayed a military strike on Iran.
- US stock futures were mixed following a varied overnight session on Wall Street, weighed down by weak technology shares.
- Seagate Technology CEO Dave Mosley warned that new factories take too long, risking missed AI-related demand.
Dow Jones futures inch higher by 0.05% to near 49,800 during the European hours ahead of the United States (US) regular opening on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gain 0.07% to near 7,430, and the Nasdaq 100 futures remain firm near 29,100.
Market sentiment improves after Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump called off the Tuesday attack following appeals from Persian Gulf allies requesting more time to negotiate a diplomatic resolution. While the US administration noted it remains prepared to strike if an acceptable agreement is not reached, no firm deadline has been set.
However, US stock futures remain mixed after Wall Street posted mixed results in overnight trading, pressured mainly by weakness in technology shares. The Dow Jones closed with 0.32% gains during Monday's regular US session. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.07% and 0.51%, respectively, as a selloff in memory chip makers dragged both benchmarks lower for a second straight day.
Market sentiment turned sour as Seagate shares dropped nearly 7%, following comments from CEO Dave Mosley at a JPMorgan conference, where he stated that building new factories would take too long, fueling concerns that the company could struggle to keep up with rapidly rising AI-related demand. Peer Micron Technology also fell around 6% in response.
On the corporate front, investors are now turning their attention to a fresh batch of corporate earnings due on Tuesday, including results from Home Depot, Keysight Technologies, and Toll Brothers. Traders will likely observe the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes and flash US Purchasing Managers Index data due later in the week for additional clues on the outlook for monetary policy and economic activity.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- EUR/USD drifts to session lows near 1.1630 from Monday's highs above 1.1660.
- The Euro struggles with oil prices above the key $100 level.
- Frail hopes of progress in the US-Iran peace plan are keeping the Euro from falling further.
The Euro (EUR) resumes its bearish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, retreating to levels near 1.1630 at the time of writing, from Monday’s highs right above 1.1660. The uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict and concerns about the inflationary impact of high Oil prices are keeping the Euro on its back foot.
US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that an attack on Iran was postponed as, he said, “serious negotiations” are taking place. Markets, however, remain skeptical, as the parties seem far apart on key issues, such as nuclear power.
Oil prices remain more than 30% above pre-war levels. The Brent Crude barrel is above $107.00, and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is near $103.00, fuelling concerns about long-lasting inflationary pressures that will weigh heavily on the crude-importing Eurozone economies and act as a headwind to a significant Euro recovery.
Technical analysis: The Euro maintains its bearish trend intact
EUR/USD holds a bearish tone with price action capped below the bottom of the last four weeks' trading range, at the 1.1660-1.1675 area. The 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive, hinting at waning downside pressure, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 36 still points to a weak recovery and favors sellers on rebounds.
On the downside, Monday's low at 1.1610 remains at a short distance. A clear break of that level would expose the deeper floor at April's bottom in the 1.1510-1.1525 area.
Bulls, on the other hand, would have to break the mentioned resistance area ahead of 1.1675 to ease negative pressure and shift the focus towards the May 14 high, at 1.1720, and the May 7, 8, and 11 highs, in the 1.1790 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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