Forex News
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is consolidating just below 160.00 after slightly hotter March Consumer Price Index (CPI) that leaves Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations unchanged for now. With markets pricing near certainty of no move next week, Haddad argues investors underprice the risk of a hike given Japan’s positive output gap and robust wage gains.
Market complacent on BoJ tightening risk
"USD/JPY is trading in a tight range just under key resistance at 160.00. Japan March CPI came in slightly hotter than expected but does not shift the dial on Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike expectations."
"Headline CPI rose to 1.5% y/y (consensus: 1.4%) vs. 1.3% in February driven by petroleum-related items. Core CPI ex. fresh food printed at 1.8% y/y (consensus: 1.7%) vs. 1.6% in February, while core CPI ex. fresh food & energy CPI matched consensus at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.5% in February."
"The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) set of underlying CPI indicators for March will be released just ahead of Tuesday’s policy rate decision. The swaps curve price in near certainty that the BoJ holds rates steady at 0.75% next week. In our view, the market is underpricing the risk of a rate hike given Japan’s positive output gap (0.45% in Q3 2025) and solid results from the latest spring wage talks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold. They see policymakers reiterating that policy is appropriately calibrated, looking through the war-driven headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) spike as soft core inflation persists, while modestly downgrading Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and marking up the all-items inflation outlook.
BoC seen holding as risks diverge
"The Bank of Canada is set to leave its overnight target unchanged at 2.25%, a decision widely expected by forecasters and OIS markets. This would mark the fourth consecutive hold after policymakers first declared in October that policy is at “about the right level” to keep inflation near target and support the economy’s transition."
"Traders have stripped out the three hikes that were (briefly) priced for 2026, but a tightening bias clearly remains. We don’t expect Governing Council to explicitly endorse this, instead reiterating that policy is appropriately calibrated. They will continue to look through the war’s “immediate” impact on inflation while also assuring that they will not let higher energy prices spread or become persistent inflation."
"Despite the surge in gas prices, recent inflation data has been encouraging as underlying price pressures continue to cool. For now, soft core inflation supports looking through the headline CPI spike."
"In an updated MPR, expect the all-items inflation outlook to be marked up reflecting higher gas prices. However, revisions to core inflation projections should be minimal. The GDP growth profile is likely to be downgraded modestly with Q4:2025 performance weaker than expected, Q1:2026 tracking below earlier estimates and the labour market underwhelming. The Bank may note that risks to growth are skewed lower and risks to inflation are skewed higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- A large majority of economists expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting.
- Expectations for a rate hike in June are increasing compared to the previous survey.
- The consensus is shifting more clearly toward at least one rate hike this year.
The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.
According to the poll, 84 out of 85 economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2% at the April meeting, pointing to an almost unanimous consensus for a short-term hold.
However, expectations evolve for the following meetings, as 44 of the 85 economists now anticipate a rate hike to 2.25% as early as June. This marks a shift compared to late March, when 38 of 60 economists surveyed expected no change through 2026.
Beyond the immediate horizon, tightening expectations are strengthening significantly. The survey shows that 50 out of 85 economists expect at least one rate hike this year, compared to just 21 out of 60 in the previous poll. This change reflects a repositioning of the consensus toward a potentially more restrictive monetary policy stance over the medium term.
These results reflect ongoing uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the Eurozone and suggest that the ECB may maintain a cautious stance in the near term, while keeping the door open to further policy adjustments should inflationary pressures persist.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist. They project rate reductions toward year-end as inflation eases, with the US Dollar (USD) seen weakening over time on excessive United States (US) easing and concerns about Fed independence.
Fed holds fire before later easing cycle
"The Fed is likely to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time. After all, the inflation rate has been above target for five years, and the conflict in the Middle East is driving prices even higher. As a result, inflation expectations are probably no longer as firmly anchored as they once were."
"The Fed is therefore keen to keep inflation expectations anchored. A rate cut in this environment would be counterproductive."
"Despite ongoing political pressure, the Fed is not expected to change its key interest rate at next week’s meeting. At most, Governor Miran is likely to vote for a rate cut. The target range for the federal funds rate would thus remain at 3.50%–3.75%."
"The Fed is under considerable political pressure to cut interest rates further. We expect it to resume rate cuts toward the end of the year, as inflation should have eased somewhat by then."
"The dollar is likely to be under pressure again after the end of the war with Iran because of pronounced and ultimately excessive US interest rate cuts, which have a lot to do with the Federal Reserve's dwindling independence."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver trades flat near $75.50 on Friday, set for the first weekly loss in five weeks
- Oil-driven inflation fears reinforce higher interest rate expectations, weighing on the non-yielding metal.
- Technically, XAG/USD remains below the 50- and 100-day SMAs, keeping upside capped.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $75.52 after hitting an intraday low of $73.95, down over 5% so far this week, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and firm Treasury yields, as stalled US-Iran peace talks and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push Oil prices higher.
Price action remains driven by US-Iran headlines and interest rate expectations, with the current geopolitical backdrop keeping Silver tilted to the downside in the near term, while technical indicators also point to downside pressure.
In the daily chart, XAG/USD remains in a bearish near-term stance as it holds below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78 and the 100-day SMA at $79, keeping the recent rebound capped beneath these medium-term trend gauges.
The 200-day SMA at $62 stays well below the price and acts as a broader bullish floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 sits just under the neutral 50 line, hinting at growing downside pressure.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with a marginally positive histogram, suggesting vulnerable upside momentum as long as price trades below the clustered short- and medium-term averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day SMA around $78, followed by a stronger barrier at the 100-day SMA near $79, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way to a more constructive recovery.
On the downside, the immediate focus is on how spot behaves around the $75-$74 area as a short-term pivot; a sustained break lower would expose progressively lower levels toward the 200-day SMA at $62, which remains the key longer-term support zone guarding against a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed as USD/CAD retreats from repeated tests of the low 1.37 area. They highlight that broader US Dollar (USD) tone remains dominant, but stretched valuation and intact bearish technical signals suggest limited upside for USD/CAD in the short term, with key resistance and support levels closely watched.
Bearish structure caps USD/CAD rebounds
"The CAD is little changed on the session, with spot retreating from a handful of tests of the low 1.37 zone through the overnight session. The broader USD tone remains the primary driver of USD/CAD but late week CAD losses are pulling the spot away from estimated equilibrium (1.3574) and stretching fair valuation again. Absent a significant flare up in market tensions and a firmer haven bid for the USD, that may limit scope for USD/CAD gains in the short run."
"Bearish—Despite minor USD gains, the broader downtrend in USD/CAD remains intact. Trend momentum signals have softened somewhat but the alignment of bearish trend strength signals across short-, medium- and long-term oscillators remains intact. That should continue to limit the USD’s ability to strengthen."
"We spot resistance in the low/mid-1.37 zone. Support remains 1.3625. The bear case weakens if spot pushes decisively above 1.3750."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny links the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure to rising Oil and input costs, with agricultural and fuel prices already surging. Halpenny assumes crude Oil averages USD 115 in Q2, lifting US inflation toward 3.8% later this year. This scenario threatens to increase global market volatility and pressure central banks to respond more aggressively.
Hormuz closure and crude price assumptions
"The focus now is fully on the Strait of Hormuz and pressuring Iran into shifting its position. However, Iran knows there is a time limit for the US as well and the inflationary impact of the closure will have a US and global impact that will be damaging for President Trump."
"The risk must be that Iran’s tolerance for pain will be considerable and in that regard this stalemate could drag on to the extent that crude oil prices soon hit new highs and create greater financial market volatility."
"The FT ran a great article yesterday highlighting the impact on the agricultural sector in the US where record price increases are being recorded for certain products. The price of nitrogen fertiliser is up more than 30% while urea (a nitrogen-based fertiliser) is up 47%, a record rise. Farm diesel is up 46% and these price changes will inevitably soon start to impact the price of food for consumers."
"These prices are likely to get worse over the coming weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed – our assumption based on crude oil prices average USD 115pbl in Q2 would see annual inflation pick up to around 3.6% in Q2 to 3.8% in Q3 and Q4 this year. The impact on refined fuels and fertiliser prices could mean these estimates are too low."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY pair snaps a four-day winning streak.
- Hopes of renewed US-Iran talks support risk appetite.
- Bank of Japan expectations and intervention threats cap upside.
USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day and ending a sequence of four consecutive days of gains. The move comes amid a pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as improving market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets.
The prospect of a new round of discussions between the United States (US) and Iran, with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi expected to reach Pakistan on Friday, is fueling hopes of de-escalation. This dynamic supports risk-sensitive assets and weighs on the Greenback, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) easing toward 98.60.
In this context, comments from the United States (US) Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. He warned that any attempt by Iran to lay additional mines would be considered a violation of the agreement, while noting that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is currently ongoing. He also called for stronger European involvement to help secure this strategic waterway, a key route for global energy flows and market stability.
On the Japanese side, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is driven by mixed factors. Speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities and comments from the Ministry of Finance provide some support to the currency. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated readiness to act against excessive speculative moves, emphasizing close coordination with US counterparts.
At the same time, monetary policy expectations remain cautious. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its upcoming meeting, while leaving the door open to future tightening.
According to analysts at MUFG, a dovish tone from the BoJ could reignite Japanese Yen selling pressure and push USD/JPY above the 160 level. Conversely, a more hawkish communication could help stabilize the Japanese currency, as markets already price in gradual tightening.
In this uncertain environment, USD/JPY remains caught between shifts in global risk sentiment, diverging monetary policy expectations and the risk of Japanese intervention, keeping the pair close to key short-term levels.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.31% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.06% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.09% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.19% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.17% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | -0.10% | -0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | -0.17% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that earlier supportive flows into the Norwegian Krone from energy prices and hawkish Norges Bank policy are now fading. Commodity FX momentum is softening, with NOK seeing outflows as hedge demand unwinds and policy expectations peak. Savage judges that NOK has largely completed its re‑rating, with Norges Bank signaling only one further hike and resisting expectations of additional tightening.
Commodity FX flows and Norges Bank stance
"Markets remain uneasy, but recent trends still point toward gradual de-escalation, suggesting recovery flows could build while conflict hedges lose support. Commodity FX has led, especially in LatAm, along with NOK and AUD in the G10, which are benefiting from energy and hawkish policy, reinforcing carry dynamics."
"Meanwhile AUD has recorded its biggest three-day outflows and NOK has seen two days of outflows as policy expectations peak and hedge demand unwinds, though conviction remains low."
"Even while the energy backdrop remains supportive, we believe NOK has largely completed its re-rating, particularly as Norges Bank has signaled a commitment to one further hike while pushing back against the prospect of additional tightening."
"Norway’s consumer confidence index remained deeply negative in April at -19.1, little changed from March and highlighting persistently weak sentiment following the geopolitical shock from the Iran conflict."
"The index has remained well below recent averages, reflecting continued pessimism driven by high energy and commodity prices, ongoing trade uncertainty and expectations of further interest rate increases by Norges Bank."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
