Forex News
- The New Zealand Dollar rebounds and snaps a three-day losing streak against the US Dollar.
- Markets continue to price in multiple rate hikes in New Zealand following recent central bank comments.
- Investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East conflict ahead of Friday’s US employment data.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.28% on the day after ending a three-day decline. The pair's rebound is supported by expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy in New Zealand, although caution remains warranted due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to draw support from recent comments by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman, who indicated that the Official Cash Rate could be increased sooner and by more than previously expected. The central bank believes that inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict, rising input costs and weak growth justify a cautious approach. Markets are now pricing in multiple rate hikes throughout the year.
However, the Kiwi's upside potential may remain limited as investors continue to favour safe-haven assets. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that no tangible progress had been made in negotiations aimed at ending the hostilities. He also warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut could trigger a full-scale resumption of the conflict.
At the same time, United States (US) President Donald Trump stated that Washington was in the middle of final negotiations to end the war with Iran. Despite these remarks, markets remain cautious due to the lack of concrete progress and the ongoing exchange of missile and drone strikes among the parties involved.
The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading lower around 99.20 as investors await upcoming US economic data releases. Initial Jobless Claims are due on Thursday ahead of the May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
According to market expectations, the US economy is projected to have added 85K jobs in May, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. These figures could influence expectations regarding the future policy path of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and are likely to be the main catalyst for NZD/USD in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.36% | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.20% | -0.30% | -0.58% | |
| EUR | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.22% | -0.15% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -0.25% | -0.43% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.32% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.36% | -0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | -0.15% | -0.10% | 0.05% | 0.16% | -0.18% | -0.36% | |
| NZD | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.18% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.58% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.43% | 0.54% | 0.36% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
BNY’s Bob Savage reports that RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted a 75bp rise in the cash rate this year to return inflation to target, but noted inflation re-accelerated in late 2025 as growth, a tight labor market and higher Oil prices lifted costs. She warned the Middle East conflict could add to inflation and sees headline inflation peaking above 4.5% in Q2, with underlying pressures elevated until mid-2027.
RBA wary of renewed price pressures
"RBA Governor Michele Bullock has testified on the economic outlook, saying the board has raised the cash rate by 75bp this year to help bring inflation back to target."
"She said inflation had fallen into the target band in early 2025 but then rose again in the second half of the year as stronger growth, tight labor market conditions and higher oil prices pushed costs higher."
"She also warned that the Middle East conflict could add to inflation and modestly weigh on growth, while noting tighter policy is already easing housing market conditions."
"Bullock said headline inflation may peak above 4.5% in the June quarter, with underlying inflation above target until mid-2027."
"Australia saw a sharp improvement in the international trade in goods balance in April – it came in at a surplus of AU$1.791bn from a March deficit of AU$1.024bn."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Chris Turner notes USD/BRL may move toward 5.14 as the stronger US Dollar and local political and trade risks weigh on the Brazilian Real (BRL). He argues BRL is catching up with domestic rate markets and expects dips to find support given Brazil’s high yields and energy exporter status.
Brazilian Real catches up with rates
"The stronger US rate/dollar environment is starting to prove a headwind for some of the more popular emerging market plays, including the Brazilian real carry trade."
"Beyond the strong dollar environment, the local story sees President Lula’s approval ratings continue to widen over Flavio Bolsonaro and Brazil having to deal with the renewed threat of 25% US tariffs."
"In reality, however, it looks as though the Brazilian real is catching up with the local interest rate market, where short-dated rates have been selling off since late last week."
"Barring a massive spike in US yields and the dollar, which is not our baseline scenario, we expect the BRL to find good support on any dips given its high yield and net energy exporter status. Maybe the correction to 5.14 will be sufficient."
"At the start of the year, the market had been pricing the BACEN’s policy rate down at 12.50% from a 15.00% starting point. Now investors are considering the next BACEN move (off a 14.50% policy rate) to be a hike."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold pares losses on Thursday and reaches session highs near $4,500.
- A ceasefire in Lebanon has triggered moderate optimism about a durable peace in Iran.
- A daily close above $4,500 would boost hopes of a deeper recovery.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades higher on Thursday and has reached session highs above $4,490, after bouncing from $4,425 lows earlier on the day. The precious metal holds weekly losses, but investors' optimism following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has hurt the safe-haven US Dollar, providing a fresh impulse to precious metals
The deal, still pending confirmation from Hezbollah, is expected to overcome one of the main obstacles to a durable peace agreement between the US and Iran. Oil prices and the US Dollar have gone through moderate declines following the agreement, although the ongoing hostilities in the area keep investors on edge
On the macroeconomic front, US data has been Dollar-supportive this week, cushioning USD dips. ADP employment figures showed a larger-than-expected increase in net jobs in May, while the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index highlighted solid business activity in the sector, combined with high inflationary pressures. The data fuel expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be forced to hike rates later in the year if price pressures remain high.
Technical Analysis: Gold is showing initial signs of a potential bullish correction
XAU/USD has found support at the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Thursday to pare previous losses. A daily close beyond $4,500 would confirm a bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart, a common sign of trend shifts, and give fresh hope for bulls.
Momentum, however, remains soft, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering below the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still in negative territory, hinting that upside attempts may struggle to gain strong traction in the near term.
Bulls need to break and remain above Wednesday's top at the mentioned $4,500 to shift the focus towards the top of the recent range, at the $4,590 area (May 19, 29 highs). On the downside, a break below the 200-day SMA at $4,425 would put bears back in control and increase pressure towards the two-month low in the $4,515 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Danske Research Team expects the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, in line with market pricing and consensus. They highlight upside surprises in core inflation and higher Oil futures, alongside weaker Euro area growth. They see updated staff projections justifying two hikes in 2026 assumptions and still prefer lower short-end swap rates.
ECB path, inflation and growth mix
"We expect the ECB to hike policy rates by 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 in line with market pricing and consensus."
"Oil futures have moved higher compared to the baseline staff projections in March and we thus expect the new staff projections to increase the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.9% y/y (from: 2.6%) and 2027 to 2.2% y/y (from: 2.0%)."
"Growth data has surprised on the downside both in terms of Q1 GDP and survey-based indicators in Q2, so we expect a downward revision of the 2026 GDP growth to 0.6% y/y (from: 0.9% y/y) and 2027 to 1.2% y/y (from: 1.3%)."
"As the new staff projections likely assume around 68bp worth of hikes in the technical assumptions, we believe they give the GC [Governing Council] arguments for hiking twice this year."
"As one hike is not significantly changing economic conditions, we expect the ECB to deliver another 25bp hike in Q3."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that stronger ISM services data and higher US rates are shaping the backdrop for the US Dollar. The report notes that ISM services rose above expectations, driven by new orders and business activity, while employment stayed in contraction. The authors stress that the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent and sees no immediate case to change interest rates.
ISM services and Fed guidance
"Rates sold off on Wednesday, continuing to move higher after additional proposed tariffs on 60 countries were announced overnight."
"ADP rose in line with consensus, showing signs of labor market stabilization. ISM services came in above consensus at 54.5, stemming from increases in new orders and business activity."
"Note that even though the ISM index registered a notable m/m increase it remains well-below the pre-Covid norm."
"Fed's Williams spoke, saying that he does not see an argument to change interest rates right now and remains data-dependent."
"News from Iran negotiations showed that their response to the US has not been sent yet. Markets will remain largely focused on geopolitical news, while jobless claims and productivity & ULC data will be released on Thursday. Barkin, Bowman and Daly are all on the docket ahead of the blackout period which starts on Friday night."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United States (US) President Donald Trump has criticized all Democratic and four Republican House members, through a post on Truth Social, for voting in favor of curbing the war against Iran. The House voted 215 to 208 in favor of the war powers resolution, as four Republicans voted with Democrats. The post also indicates that Washington is in the middle of final negotiations to end the war with Iran.
“Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing. They know where the negotiations stand. The Democrats are fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome. They would rather have our Country fail than give me another, of many, victories. The four Republicans, that’s a whole other story - They’re GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves. MAGA!!! President DJT,” Trump wrote.
Market reaction
No key reaction seen in the US Dollar (USD) due to US President Trump's post. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 0.33% down to near 99.20 as of writing.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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