Forex News
- Eurozone flash PMIs slumped deeper below the growth line, with the services gauge leading the disappointment.
- The Euro held its ground anyway, propped up by a US session bout of Dollar weakness rather than any homegrown strength.
- The pair is pinned to its 200-day average, with US inflation data and a wave of ECB speakers shaping the week ahead.
The Euro finished the Thursday session roughly where it began, which only looks like resilience until you read the data behind it. May flash surveys were a mess: the Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped further below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, manufacturing slipped, and services fell to one of its weakest readings in months. A currency holding flat on a print like that is not strong, it is being carried.
Carried, not bought
The lift came entirely from the Dollar side. Risk appetite flared during the US afternoon on rumors that a US-Iran ceasefire was minutes from being announced, knocking the greenback off its highs and letting the Euro claw back the ground it had lost earlier in the day. Then the story unravelled. Talks are still grinding on, Iran is still angling to levy tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic and still refuses to put nuclear material on the table, and the US has called both of those red lines. The ceasefire markets briefly toasted never materialized, which means the Euro's steadiness rests on a Dollar wobble that may not survive the weekend.
A central bank running short on cover
With the activity surveys pointing firmly south, the European Central Bank (ECB) has less and less room to keep projecting calm. Consumer Confidence ticked up marginally, the day's lone bright spot, but it does little to offset a services sector that has now slipped into outright contraction. The longer policymakers talk up resilience while the survey data deteriorates beneath them, the more the gap between the official narrative and the numbers starts to look like wishful thinking.
The calendar grows teeth next week
Friday offers little of substance for the bloc beyond EcoFin and Eurogroup gatherings and remarks from the ECB's chief economist. The heavier slate sits next week: a string of ECB speakers, the ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, and the German and Eurozone confidence surveys on Thursday, all landing alongside the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The PCE release is the one with real teeth for this pair. A new Fed chair also takes office on Friday, adding a layer of Dollar-side uncertainty into the bargain.
The 200-day line is the whole game
The chart frames the standoff neatly. The Euro is sitting right on its 200-day EMA, just above the 1.1600 figure, the line that has roughly defined fair value for the pair all year. Hold it, and the bulls can keep arguing for a grind back toward 1.1650 and the 50-day EMA up near 1.1700. Lose it, and with the activity data offering no help whatsoever, the path opens toward 1.1550 below. The bias is to treat any upside with suspicion while the PMIs read like this. For now, the Euro is a passenger in the Dollar's car, not the one doing the driving.
EUR/USD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1621. The pair holds a mildly bearish intraday bias as it trades just under the daily open at 1.1626, suggesting upside attempts remain capped while the market digests earlier selling pressure. The Stochastic RSI has recovered from oversold territory toward the mid-30s, hinting at some easing of downside momentum but not yet signaling a convincing bullish reversal.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the daily open near 1.1626, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to improve the short-term tone. With no clear nearby support levels from the provided dataset, traders may continue to treat minor dips as vulnerable while the pair remains below the daily open, with momentum gauges only indicating a modest corrective bounce rather than a trend change.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1619, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1683 while clinging just above the 200-day EMA at 1.1618. This configuration suggests rallies are likely to face supply into the 1.1680 area, even as the Stochastic RSI slips deep into oversold territory near 11, hinting that downside momentum may be stretched in the very short term.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day EMA around 1.1683, and sustained trading below this barrier would maintain the downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-day EMA at 1.1618 is the first line of support; a clear daily close under this level would open the door to a further leg lower, while holding above it could encourage a corrective rebound within the broader capped structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold price holds steady near $4,545 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Traders keep a close watch on whether the US-Iran peace talks will progress.
- Trump will swear in Warsh on Friday to lead the Fed.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note around $4,545 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal steadies as traders await the progress of US-Iran ceasefire talks. US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh, his hand-picked choice to lead the US Federal Reserve (Fed), during a ceremony on Friday.
Iranian officials stated that the latest proposal from the US partly bridged the gap between the warring sides, but comments from the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader about keeping Tehran’s uranium stockpile and a dispute over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz clouded the outlook for a breakthrough. Trump on Wednesday warned that he may resume attacks soon if Iran doesn’t agree to his terms.
“As a non-yielding asset, gold performs best when real yields decline, and the US dollar depreciates,” said Kiran Kowshik, Global FX Strategist at Lombard Odier. “However, an energy supply shock can have the opposite effect, resulting in markets pricing higher central bank rate expectations, higher yields and a firmer US dollar. It is therefore unsurprising that gold has shown a strong negative relationship with rising energy prices,” Kowshik added.
The new Fed Chair will succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expired Friday but who continues to serve on a pro-tempore basis until Warsh officially takes over. Warsh will lead his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in the June policy meeting.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The Aussie ended higher despite a deeply disappointing April jobs report, riding a wave of US session risk appetite.
- The rally leaned on fading hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire rather than anything resembling domestic strength.
- Next week's monthly inflation data is the real test, with the soft labour figures already nudging the rate debate dovish.
The Australian Dollar closed the Thursday session higher, which is a curious outcome for a day that handed the labour market its worst headline in months. April Employment Change collapsed to an 18.6K contraction against expectations for a 17.5K gain, the jobless rate climbed to 4.5% from 4.3%, and full-time roles led the decline lower. None of that reads like the makings of a currency rally, yet the Aussie spent the US afternoon grinding up off its lows.
Borrowed optimism from across the Pacific
The explanation sits offshore. Risk appetite caught fire during the US session on chatter that a US-Iran ceasefire announcement was imminent, dragging the US Dollar lower and lifting the high-beta Aussie along with it. That optimism turned out to be threadbare. Talks remain unresolved, with Iran still pressing to charge tolls on Strait of Hormuz transits and still refusing to bring nuclear material to the table, both of which Washington has flagged as non-starters. The ceasefire that markets briefly pre-celebrated never arrived, which leaves the Aussie's bounce resting on a premise that keeps slipping away.
The data the tape decided to ignore
The labour report does real damage to any case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding a hawkish line. A shrinking workforce and a rising unemployment rate are precisely the conditions that pull forward rate-cut bets, and the consensus view is already drifting that way. The market's willingness to look straight past the print says far more about the prevailing risk-on mood than any genuine conviction in the Aussie story. Strip out the geopolitical sugar rush and this was a soft day for the currency dressed up as a firm one.
The real test is still a week away
Friday is quiet on the home front. The event that matters lands midweek, when Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints on Wednesday. With headline inflation last running at 4.6% YoY and the trimmed mean at 3.3%, a soft number stacked on top of this week's jobs miss would hand the doves a clean narrative and put real weight behind cut expectations. Q1 Private Capital Expenditure follows on Thursday. On the Dollar side, a fresh Federal Reserve (Fed) chair is sworn in on Friday, a wildcard for risk sentiment heading into the new week.
A bounce on borrowed time
The Aussie is holding above its 50-day EMA near 0.7100 on the daily chart, which keeps the short-term structure tilted bullish even where the fundamentals plainly disagree. However, bulls need to clear the day's ceiling around 0.7150 and push toward the 0.7200 handle to argue the recovery has any legs. A failure there, particularly if the ceasefire premium keeps bleeding out, points back toward 0.7100, where the 50-day EMA and the session low converge, and then 0.7050 below. The bias here is to fade strength rather than chase it: the bounce is real on the chart, but it is borrowed, and the data underneath it is pointing the other way.
AUD/USD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7150. The pair holds a mild bearish intraday bias as price trades fractionally beneath the daily open at 0.7153, leaving that opening level as immediate overhead pressure despite the absence of nearby moving averages or structural resistance on this timeframe. The Stochastic RSI has retreated toward lower readings, hinting that downside momentum has picked up after earlier attempts to stabilize.
On the downside, a clean break and consolidation under the 0.7150 handle would expose progressively weaker intraday bids, with bears in control while the pair holds below the 0.7153 open. On the topside, reclaiming 0.7153 on a sustained basis would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a corrective bounce, especially if momentum indicators start to turn higher from depressed levels.
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7150. The pair retains a constructive near-term bias as spot holds above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7114 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6862, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent consolidation off last week’s highs. The Stochastic RSI has retreated to around 36, hinting that upside momentum has cooled, but it is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting the pullback so far looks corrective within the prevailing bullish structure.
On the downside, initial support is now seen near the 0.7150 area, with a deeper floor at the 50-day EMA around 0.7114; a daily close below this latter level would expose the more distant 200-day EMA support at 0.6862. With no nearby resistance levels signaled by the current indicator set, bulls may need a sustained break higher on fresh buying interest to reassert upside traction in the sessions ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/JPY remains trapped between 158.60 and 159.40 range.
- RSI flattens in bullish territory, signaling stalled upside momentum.
- Break below 159.00 exposes 158.78 and 158.15 supports.
USD/JPY hovers at around 159.00, virtually unchanged, amid traders' fears that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades unchanged at around 159.02.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action remains contained within the 158.60-159.40 area, with buyers reluctant to push higher past 159.50 towards the 160.00 milestone. The confirmation of this is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory, but with a flattish slope during the last four trading days.
If bulls reclaim 159.50, look for a move towards the 159.75 psychological area, ahead of 160.00. Past this, the next resistance is the yearly peak at 160.73.
On the flip side, if sellers push the USD/JPY below 159.00, a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.78 is on the cards. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the 20-day SMA at 158.15, followed by 158.00. On further weakness, a move towards the 100-day SMA at 157.56 is on the cards.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.81% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.01% | -0.54% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.86% | 0.18% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.51% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.81% | 0.86% | 0.98% | 1.00% | 0.81% | 0.35% | 0.77% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.98% | -0.01% | -0.23% | -0.74% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.14% | -1.00% | 0.01% | -0.21% | -0.73% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.81% | 0.23% | 0.21% | -0.45% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.51% | -0.35% | 0.74% | 0.73% | 0.45% | 0.42% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.77% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.08% | -0.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, climbed 0.9% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, compared to 0.9% in the previous reading, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Monday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 0.5%.
This figure followed 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and came in above the market consensus of 0.5%.
Market reaction to New Zealand’s Retail Sales
At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading 0.07% higher on the day at 0.5875.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- Silver prints higher highs and lows, signaling improving structure.
- RSI remains bearish but rises, showing sellers losing momentum.
- Break above $77.51 exposes $80.00 and 100-day SMA resistance.
Silver price consolidates around $76.50 per troy ounce amid a narrow trading session driven by Middle East developments, keeping investors uncertain about a US-Iran deal. At the time of writing, the white metal is up over 1%.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Silver is poised to trade sideways with key resistance levels lying overhead. Although it has printed back-to-back days with higher highs and higher lows, a daily close above $70.00 is needed if buyers would like to test higher prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish below its neutral level, but it’s aiming steadily higher. This indicates that sellers are losing momentum, and buyers might be stepping in. Hence, in the short term, further upside is expected in the XAG/USD.
A breach above $70.00 will expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.51. Above this level, the next resistance is at $80.00, followed by the 100-day SMA at $81.10.
Downwards, the first support for XAG/USD is at $76.00. Once cleared, the next stop would be the April 29 daily low of $70.86, ahead of $70.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD trades near the 0.5880 region as improving market sentiment supports demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
- Investors await New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales data for fresh clues on domestic economic momentum.
- US Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.3 in May, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may remain cautious on rate cuts.
The NZD/USD recovered and is now trading near the 0.5880 region on Friday as the United States (US) Dollar (USD) loses momentum despite resilient economic data, while improving market sentiment and stronger demand for risk-sensitive assets support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
Investors are closely monitoring New Zealand’s upcoming Q1 Retail Sales report, scheduled for later in the day, for additional clues about domestic consumer activity and the broader economic outlook. The data could influence expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) future policy path.
The latest S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May from 54.5, surpassing market expectations and reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Services PMI eased slightly to 50.9, highlighting softer momentum in the service sector and limiting broader gains for the Greenback.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5877. The pair is attempting to stabilize above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5855, while still trading beneath the 100-period SMA at 0.5902, which keeps the broader recovery capped for now. Immediate price action is pivoting around nearby support at 0.5875, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted into the mid-50s, hinting at mildly improving momentum rather than a decisive bullish breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at 0.5889, with the 100-period SMA at 0.5902 reinforcing a first cap ahead of a higher barrier near 0.5965. On the downside, nearby support at 0.5875 is followed by 0.5865 and 0.5856, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5855 underpinning this cluster; a sustained break beneath this band would expose deeper weakness, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative, slightly constructive stance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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