Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong remain constructive on Gold over the medium term but have lowered price forecasts to USD4,250/oz for end-2026 and USD4,710/oz for end-2027. Near-term challenges stem from softer risk sentiment, potential AI-related deleveraging and elevated US yields, while ETF inflows, central-bank buying and an eventual unwinding of Fed hawkishness support a recovery into 2027.
Medium-term bullish outlook despite near-term hurdles
"We remain constructive on gold over the medium term. But lowered forecast levels, now projecting gold at 4250 at end-2026 and 4710 at end-2027."
"Near-term conditions remain challenging amid softer risk sentiment, while weakness in AI-related equities could risk triggering broader deleveraging and liquidity-driven selling in gold."
"Fears of another Fed hike in December, which remains our house baseline, and the prospect of US rates staying restrictive for longer could keep yields elevated, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold."
"Nevertheless, ETF inflows and central-bank purchases continue to underpin underlying demand, while the recent positioning washout may allow long positions to rebuild from pre-breakout levels. Looking into 2027, an eventual unwinding of hawkish Fed expectations and moderation in USD strength and yields should provide support for gold’s recovery."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent rallied strongly last week, supported by escalating Gulf risks and renewed attacks on Russian refineries. They highlight market nervousness ahead of US midterm elections, with traders weighing potential US–Iran hostilities against a tentative diplomatic track. Speculative positioning in ICE Brent remains below March highs, leaving room for further longs if a strong catalyst emerges.
Brent supported by Gulf tensions
"Oil prices finished strong last week, with ICE Brent settling almost 2.4% higher on Friday to close above $113/bbl. It was also the Dec-26 contract expiry; it settled at $117.64/bbl on its last trading day. Vessels have faced a growing number of attacks in recent weeks."
"The price action in oil in recent weeks reflects a market increasingly bracing for the potential for more hostilities between the US and Iran. If the midterms pass with neither strikes nor a deal, the key question is whether the market continues to price in a substantial geopolitical risk premium or whether that premium gradually begins to unwind. Given that many of the key developments in this conflict have unfolded over weekends, the market may have to hold its breath until the end of the week."
"Meanwhile, in Russia, the brief respite that refiners received from Ukraine appears to have ended. Attacks on Russian refiners resumed towards the end of last week. The roughly 2-week pause had seen the ICE gasoil crack fall below $70/bbl and trade to its lowest level since early October."
"The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 3,576 lots over the last reporting week to 245,457 lots as of last Tuesday. Fresh longs drove the move. Meanwhile, the net speculative long is still some distance away from the year-to-date high of around 430k lots seen in March."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Oil price slides below $100 as fears of US resuming attacks on Iran have diminished.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said that President Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution.
- Iran signals that talks with the US through Qatari mediators are still going on.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures, on NYMEX, is down 2.25% to near $99.80 during the European trade on Monday. The oil price extends its correction that started after failing to progress the rally above $104.03, the five-month high posted on Friday.
The WTI price comes under pressure as fears of prolonged energy supply risks have diminished, following signals from the United States (US) that it would prioritize diplomatic resolution with Iran over resuming military action.
Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Washington hasn’t made any decision to renews strikes on Tehran and that President Donald Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution. However, Rubio kept fears of military action alive, stating that the US retains the capabilities to achieve whatever military objective Trump decides to pursue.
Separately, the comments from Iran that talks are ongoing with Qatari mediators on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US cooperates have also eased energy supply fears, Al Jazeera reported.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices suggest that financial markets are ignoring claims from US media personality and political commentator Tucker Carlso that Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing US President Donald Trump to launch a nuclear strike on Iran, alleging that Washington could take a decision on the use of nuclear weapons within days, The Times of India (ToI) reported.
WTI Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades below $100, holding just under the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $100.09, which caps the topside and keeps the near-term bias mildly bearish despite the strong rally from the mid-$80s.
Price action sitting below this short-term EMA suggests that bulls are losing traction, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 58 stays in positive territory, hinting at still constructive momentum that has yet to translate into a clear bullish break above immediate resistance.
On the topside, the five-month high at $104.03 is the critical hurdle for oil prices. On the downside, the October 20 low at $95.05 might act as key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD has settled around 1.12 after dropping from 1.16, with options-implied volatility falling again. She argues that limited changes in relative Fed and ECB expectations and a broader trend of smaller interest-rate cycles and synchronised business cycles have dampened FX swings. However, she warns that calm in FX markets is not justified given rising geopolitical and fiscal risks.
Low volatility masks growing macro risks
"After falling from levels around 1.16 at the end of September, EUR/USD now appears to be settling comfortably around 1.12. And the market evidently assumes that it will remain there for the foreseeable future. Three-month implied volatility priced in the options market has recently declined again."
"As mentioned in recent weeks, the market expects both central banks to raise rates more or less in lockstep over the coming months. At the same time, the overall amount of additional tightening still expected is fairly limited. Most recently, perhaps two to at most three further rate hikes were priced in, with the trend lately pointing lower."
"This implies that the weaker the monetary policy impulse and the more flexible the real economy, the less reason there is for exchange rates to “overshoot”. A world of more firmly anchored inflation expectations, less pronounced interest-rate cycles and more synchronised business cycles should therefore, in principle, provide less scope for large exchange-rate swings."
"So is the current calm in FX markets justified? Not at all. Central banks may currently be providing fewer impulses, but this leaves more room for governments to differentiate themselves through fiscal and economic policy."
"The US administration in particular has recently shown that it is quite prepared to pursue radical policy paths. Risks therefore remain, they currently may just be hard to predict..."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Indonesia’s September Trade Surplus hit $3.36 billion as export growth accelerated to 11.87% year-on-year.
- October domestic inflation eased slightly to 3.23%, remaining within Bank Indonesia’s target range.
- Easing Middle East tensions limited USD gains, but 75% Fed rate hike odds support dollar strength.
USD/IDR gains after two days of losses, trading around 18,180 during Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair appreciated as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) remained subdued following the release of a mix of domestic economic data. Indonesia's trade performance presented strong top-line numbers, with its trade surplus reaching USD 3.36 billion in September, far exceeding market expectations of USD 1.9 billion. Exports surged by 11.87% year-on-year, significantly outperforming forecasts of 6.45% and accelerating from August's 6.72% growth.
On the import side, Indonesia saw an 18.41% year-on-year increase in September, falling short of the anticipated 20.83% surge and marking the softest growth rate since March. This deceleration was influenced by contrasting energy trends: while oil and gas imports grew 23.94% year-on-year due to higher purchases of refined oil products, crude oil imports actually dropped by 7.00%. Meanwhile, annual domestic inflation edged down slightly to 3.23% in October from September’s three-month high of 3.28%. This figure came in below market expectations of 3.29%, keeping inflation comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%.
Despite the weak Rupiah, the upside potential of the USD/IDR pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) contends with losses stemming from easing safe-haven demand. Geopolitical tension decreased as Qatari and Iranian officials engaged in a third consecutive day of discussions aiming to resolve the Middle East conflict before the US midterm elections, offsetting lingering fears of renewed US military action against Iran.
However, the US Dollar retains potential for a rebound driven by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 75% chance of a rate increase in December, fueled by recent resilient US macroeconomic data and persistent inflationary pressures.
Dollar stays on the back foot as tech rout weighs, but Fed support lingers
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad argues that the ongoing tech sell-off is likely to keep the Dollar under pressure in the near term, with “the USD index (DXY) likely to test support at 101.00.” However, he stresses that “strong US economic activity and rising price pressures reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias, keeping rate differentials supportive of USD,” suggesting that underlying fundamentals still provide an important backstop for the currency even as risk sentiment deteriorates.
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
- Japanese Yen faces selling pressure despite various supporting triggers.
- The BoJ reiterates hawkish monetary stance after leaving rates steady at 1.25%.
- Japan FM Katayama warns of possible joint intervention with the US.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, at the start of the week. In the early European trade, the US Dollar (USD) is up 0.17% at around 157.77 against the Japanese currency.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.07% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.27% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.37% | 0.50% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.34% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | -0.37% | -0.23% | -0.08% | -0.01% | 0.12% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.27% | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.21% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.14% | -0.37% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.13% | -0.35% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | -0.50% | -0.34% | -0.12% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Asia-Pacific currency faces selling pressure despite multiple tailwinds, including a sharp correction in oil prices, Bank of Japan (BoJ) reiterating hawkish monetary policy stance in the policy announcement on Friday, and Tokyo warning joint intervention with the United States (US).
As of writing, the WTI Oil price is 2.6% lower to near $99.50. A decline in oil prices bodes well for currencies from economies, such as Japan, given their significant reliance on energy imports.
On Friday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the central bank will remain on the monetary tightening path after leaving interest rates steady at 1.25%. “BoJ will continue to raise policy rate and adjust degree of monetary easing in response to economic activity, prices and financial condition developments,” Ueda said in the press conference.
Earlier in the day, Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that the Joint FX statement with the US persists and the government will act against disorderly moves.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades lower as investors turn cautious ahead of US midterm elections on Tuesday.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 157.77. The pair refletcs a braoder sideways trend as the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 157.72 has been flat-lined for over a month.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.81 sits near the neutral line, suggesting a balanced momentum amid a sideways trend.
On the downside, the major support is the October low at 156.08. Looking up, the September 24 high at 159.04 is the major hurdle for the pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.
Read more.Last release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 03:03
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 1.25%
Consensus: 1.25%
Previous: 1.25%
Source: Bank of Japan
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