Forex News

BNY relays that the Bank of Thailand sees no need for a special MPC meeting, as the Baht has weakened only modestly during the U.S.–Iran conflict. The central bank cites strong external buffers and notes limited foreign selling, with signs of inflows returning to long-term bonds and equities. Indonesia’s emergency hike contrasts with Thailand’s more patient stance.

Stable Baht lets BOT stay patient

"The Bank of Thailand said no special Monetary Policy Committee meeting is needed as the baht has moved steadily despite pressure from the U.S.–Iran conflict."

"BOT spokesperson Chayawadee Chai-anant said the currency has weakened only slightly, while Thailand’s external position remains strong enough to absorb global market volatility."

"The baht has fallen about 5.4% since the conflict began, less than many regional currencies, and foreign investors have sold only around USD 1.3bn of Thai assets, with signs of inflows returning to long term bonds and equities."

"The BOT stressed that international reserves, financial stability, and the current account continue to support the economy."

"Indonesia’s central bank hiked rates by 25bp in an emergency meeting and is expected to hike again in their scheduled meeting next week."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a mildly positive stance on USD/SGD, looking for a test of 1.2900 in the near term while seeing 1.2915 as a tougher hurdle. On a 1–3 week horizon, they maintain that gains remain intact as long as 1.2830 holds. Over 1–3 months, a break above 1.2930 would open scope toward 1.3000.

Mild upside bias with key resistance

"24-HOUR VIEW : Two days ago, USD dipped to a low of 1.2848 and then recovered. When USD was at 1.2870 yesterday, we noted that “despite the decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum,” and we held the view that USD “is likely to trade between 1.2850 and 1.2890.” USD then traded within a narrower range than expected (1.2856/1.2885). Despite the relatively quiet price action, upward momentum has increased somewhat. Today, USD could edge higher and test 1.2900. Given the lacklustre momentum, Monday’s high, near 1.2915, is unlikely to come into view. Support is at 1.2870, followed by 1.2855."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a positive USD view since the start of the month (as annotated in the chart below). Yesterday (10 Jun, spot at 1.2870), we highlighted that “there has been a tentative slowdown in momentum.” We also highlighted that USD “must surpass 1.2930 before a move to 1.2960 can be expected.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 1.2830 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not advancing further."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Silver rebound remains capped below the 200-day SMA resistance.
• RSI exits oversold territory, but remains below neutral.
• Break above $67 exposes 200-day SMA and $70.00.

Silver (XAG/USD) price advances over 4% on Thursday after bouncing off daily lows of $61.51, its lowest level since March 23, after US President Donald Trump announced he cancelled scheduled attacks against Iran this evening, saying that final points of an agreement have been approved. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $65.91.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver turned downward biased. Even though it has recovered some ground, it remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $68.31, which is used to signal changes in the asset's direction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exited oversold territory, an indication that buyers moved in, but the index remains below the 50-neutral level, suggesting the white metal remains tilted to the downside.

If Silver rises past the $67.00 mark, this would open the door to challenge the 200-day SMA. Above this level, the next stop would be the $70.00 milestone.

On the bearish side, the first support for XAG/USD is the current week’s low at $61.50. A breach of the latter will expose the $60.00 mark, followed by the November 13, 2025, high turned support at $54.39.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• US Dollar Index retreats from a two-month high after Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran.
• Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran revive hopes for an end to the Mideast war.
• Higher US inflation supports expectations of a hawkish Fed, keeping downside in the Greenback limited.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trims earlier gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said he had cancelled scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran planned for Thursday evening.

At the time of writing, the index is trading around 99.85 after briefly touching 100.31, its highest level in more than two months.

The Greenback initially strengthened after Trump warned that the United States would hit Iran "very hard" and take control of Iran's Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure facilities.

Earlier this week, both sides exchanged retaliatory attacks across the Gulf region after Iran downed a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain ongoing. According to the New York Post, Iran has completed a new draft of a proposed agreement and sent it to Qatari mediators to pass on to Washington.

However, losses in the Greenback remained contained amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to tighten monetary policy or even raise interest rates as higher energy prices continue to feed into inflation.

Data released on Thursday showed the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY in May from 5.7% in April. The report followed Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which showed annual inflation climbing to 4.2% from 3.8%, the highest reading since April 2023.

Still, underlying inflation measures suggest the pass-through from rising energy costs has so far been more limited than expected. Core PPI held steady at 4.9% YoY in May, while Core CPI edged up only slightly to 2.9% from 2.8%.

The focus now shifts to Friday's preliminary June University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey, which will also provide updated readings on one-year and five-year inflation expectations.

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding assess China’s May data as showing solid production but softer demand. They expect Industrial Production growth to partially recover from April’s slump, supported by strong exports and high-tech manufacturing. Fixed Asset Investment is projected to remain weak amid the housing downturn, while credit growth is likely to slow further as demand stays subdued.

Production resilient as demand softens

"PMI surveys suggest production activity remained solid in May, while demand softened Real activity growth likely recovered partly from April’s slump, while investment likely declined Credit growth may have slowed further as demand likely stayed weak Hot outside, cool inside The official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in May from 50.3 previously, undershooting consensus expectations."

"Both the new orders and new export orders PMIs slipped into contraction territory, pointing to softer demand."

"Industrial production (IP) growth likely recovered to 5.0% y/y in May after slowing to 4.1% in April, supported by robust export activity."

"Fixed asset investment (FAI) may have contracted by 2.0% y/y in 5M-2025 amid the persistent housing downturn."

"The US-China summit likely helped stabilise business sentiment, partly offsetting the impact of sectoral capacity management measures under competition-related regulations, in our view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Commerzbank highlights that South Korean authorities have intensified FX monitoring to stabilize the Korean Won, including more frequent reviews of banks’ FX positions and joint inspections with the Bank of Korea. USD/KRW is consolidating around 1,520 after touching its highest level since 2009. Officials hope these steps will curb speculative pressure and support KRW in the near term.

Authorities target speculative pressure on Won

"South Korean authorities stepped up efforts to stabilize the won, shifting from verbal warnings to direct supervisory action. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has shortened its review of major banks’ FX positions from monthly to weekly. "

"This could potentially move to a daily basis, implying greater scrutiny if KRW fails to stabilize. There were also hints of moral suasion as it urged banks to avoid aggressive marketing of dollar deposits or positioning that could worsen KRW volatility."

"The Bank of Korea (BoK) and the FSS will also begin joint inspections of major FX banks, the first in 14 years, to assess whether trading activity risked destabilizing the market. The authorities said they will examine whether participants attempted to move or pin exchange rates for improper gains, with violations subject to strict penalties."

"The Kospi is one of the best-performing equity markets in the world so far this year. It is still up 83% so far this year, despite correcting by over 12% from last week's peak. It gained 76% last year on the back of the AI boom. KRW has been under pressure due to net foreign equity outflows, higher oil prices, and lingering geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Middle East."

"USD/KRW is holding around the 1,520 level after climbing to 1,558 last Friday, the highest since 2009. Year-to-date, KRW is down 5.4%, the third worst-performing Asian currency, behind INR (-5.9%) and IDR (-7.3%). The latest steps may help curb speculative pressure in the near term and so far this week, KRW has strengthened by more than 2% vs USD."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan argues that the Thai Baht is particularly exposed to prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated Oil prices. Thailand’s large net Oil and gas deficit, weakening terms of trade and relatively low domestic yields undermine the currency’s appeal. The report concludes that these factors leave THB vulnerable to further downside against the Dollar.

Large Oil deficit weighs on Baht

"The Thai baht stands out as particularly vulnerable to prolonged Middle East conflict."

"Thailand runs one of the largest net oil and gas trade deficits in the region, leaving its external position highly exposed to energy price shocks."

"At the same time, domestic yields remain relatively low, while headline inflation has rebounded towards 3% in May following a period of deflation in 2025, eroding the baht’s real carry attractiveness."

"This combination of weaker terms of trade and limited carry support leaves THB especially exposed to further downside pressure, particularly if Middle East tensions escalate further."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a neutral stance on USD/CNH, expecting intraday consolidation between 6.7760 and 6.7880 after recent directionless trading. On a 1–3 week horizon, the pair is seen holding a broader 6.7620–6.7980 range. Over 1–3 months, they anticipate USD/CNH will continue grinding lower, though it is uncertain whether the 2023 low at 6.6980 will be reached.

Range trading as broader downtrend lingers

"24-HOUR VIEW: USD dipped to a low of 6.7690 two days ago and then recovered. When USD was at 6.7780 yesterday, we indicated that “we do not observe any increase in downward momentum,” and we expected USD “to trade in a range between 6.7700 and 6.7840.” We continue to expect range-trading but the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 6.7760/6.7880."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned neutral on USD last Thursday (04 Jun, spot at 6.7750), and we indicated that USD “is likely to trade between 6.7620 and 6.7980 for the time being.” Since then, USD traded in a directionless manner, holding within our expected range, and we maintain the same view for now."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)