Forex News
- USD/CHF weakens as the Swiss Franc gains on possible US–Iran talks to extend the ceasefire.
- US Vice President JD Vance signaled ongoing diplomacy and a potential path toward US–Iran de-escalation.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged patience on rate cuts, though confident recent price gains won’t embed in inflation expectations.
USD/CHF continues its losing streak for the seventh successive day, trading around 0.7830 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to strengthen as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support as easing oil prices increase pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to adjust policy.
Swiss annual consumer inflation rose to 0.3% in March from 0.1% in February, the highest in a year, underscoring the impact of recent rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The SNB also reiterated its readiness to intervene to curb excessive CHF’s appreciation.
Oil prices weaken after reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends. US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also suggested that ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.
The US Dollar (USD) also faces challenges as the recent ease in oil prices fades the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Semafor interview on Tuesday that the US should “wait and see” before cutting interest rates, adding he is confident recent price increases will not become embedded in inflation expectations.
(The story was corrected on April 14 at 07:25 GMT to say in the first bullet and paragraph that the pair continues to strengthen as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Iran-backed Hezbollah has stated in the Asian session on Tuesday that it won’t accept terms from agreements between Israel and Lebanon, who are scheduled for peace talks in Washington at 15:00 GMT.
Ahead of the meeting, Lebanon’s Culture Minister Ghassan Salame said, “We are talking about a preparatory meeting on ambassador level in order to produce a pause in military activity if not a ceasefire,” Al Jazeera reported.
FX Implications
Market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets despite the Iran-backed Hezbollah refusing to follow the potential outcome of Israel-Lebanon talks. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades lower around 98.30, the lowest level seen in over six weeks.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- GBP/USD rallies further to near 1.3515 amid risk-on market mood in the wake of US-Iran optimism.
- US President Trump said that the other side of Iran wants a deal “very badly”.
- Investors await BoE Bailey’s comments for fresh cues on the UK interest rate outlook.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its rally to near 1.3515 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as the market sentiment remains favorable for riskier assets amid positive commentary from United States (US) President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance over negotiations with Iran regarding a permanent ceasefire.
During the press time, S&P 500 futures trade flat after surging over 1% on Monday, reflecting that the broader market mood is risk-on. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh six-week low near 98.30.
US President Trump said in a press conference on Monday, “We've been called by the other side, and they want to make a deal very badly,” adding that the blockade on Iranian ports had started.
Earlier in the day, US VP Vance said in an interview with Fox News that negotiations with Iranian delegates in Pakistan were “productive”, but it is upto Iranians to take the next step.
On the domestic front, investors await remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion at Columbia University at 16:05 GMT.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3515 as of writing. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias as spot delivers a breakout of the key resistance zone around 1.3500.
The price holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3373, suggests that the recent rebound remains underpinned.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to break into the 60.00 above zone, hinting that buyers still retain near-term control while the latest climb extends away from the short-term trend line.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3373, where a break would undermine the immediate bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction. As long as GBP/USD holds above this moving average, dips are likely to attract buying interest, with momentum conditions favoring a continuation of the advance towards the February 26 high at 1.3575, followed by the February 11 high of 1.3713.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
BoE's Governor Bailey speech
Andrew Bailey is the Bank of England's Governor. He took office on March 16th, 2020, at the end of Mark Carney's term. Bailey was serving as the Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority before being designated. This British central banker was also the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England from April 2013 to July 2016 and the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England from January 2004 until April 2011.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 14, 2026 16:05
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Bank of England
- Silver attracts some follow-through buyers and tests the 200-period EMA pivotal hurdle on H4.
- The broader technical setup backs the case for an eventual break to the upside and further gains.
- Any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity near the 38.2% Fibo. retracement.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-$72.00s and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal climbs to the $76.80 region in the last hour, with bulls looking to build on an intraday breakout momentum above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.
The XAG/USD is also trading comfortably above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in March, reinforcing the underlying constructive bullish outlook. Adding to this, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that upside momentum is recovering rather than fading.
A convincing breakout through the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart might have set the stage for additional gains towards the 50% retracement at $78.69 en route to the monthly swing high near $81.13. A sustained move beyond would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at $82.88, with further barriers then seen at $88.85 and the cycle high area near the $96.45 area.
On the downside, immediate strong support is provided by 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at $74.50, while deeper pullbacks would likely look to 23.6% Fibo. level at $69.31 and sub-$67.00 levels as more distant structural floors.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD remains steady following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March.
- Market sentiment improves as reports suggest further US–Iran talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.
- US Vice President JD Vance signaled ongoing diplomacy and a potential path toward US–Iran de-escalation.
NZD/USD inches lower after registering 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5860 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the release of China's Trade Balance data for March. It is important to note that any change in the Chinese economy could impact the NZD as China and New Zealand are close trade partners.
In Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion. Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.
However, the downside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar USD) may struggle amid easing risk aversion, which could be attributed to the reports that the United States (US) and Iran may hold further talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire before the current two-week truce ends.
US President Donald Trump said that Iran had made contact and is now looking to resume negotiations. Vice President JD Vance also indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and a possible path toward US-Iran conflict de-escalation. Vance stated that recent discussions over the weekend were constructive, providing US officials with deeper insight into Iran’s negotiating stance.
Markets scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets, with easing inflation risks tied to a potential long-term US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pressured oil prices.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Iran-related energy shock has not yet affected long-term inflation expectations, adding he expects price pressures to return to the central bank’s target within a year.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance CNY
The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Read more.Last release: Tue Apr 14, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 354.75B
Consensus: -
Previous: 1,500B
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- The US Dollar clings to Monday’s losses on US-Iran permanent ceasefire optimism.
- US VP Vance called negotiations with Iran “productive”.
- Traders do not see the Fed hiking interest rates this year amid US-Iran optimism.
The US Dollar (USD) holds onto its Monday’s losses amid optimism that the United States (US) and Iran are still in favor of a permanent ceasefire despite the absence of a breakthrough in the first round of talks in Pakistan during the weekend.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near 99.37, which is the lowest level seen in over six weeks.
Earlier in the day, US Vice President (VP) JD Vance stated in an interview with Fox News that the meeting with Iranian delegates was not a complete failure, but was “productive”, as his team gained “valuable insight into Iran’s negotiating approach”. Vance expressed confidence in a potential second round of negotiations, stating,” Momentum has been established, with the ball in Iran’s court to advance negotiations further.”
Meanwhile, a report from CNN has also stated that officials from Washington are internally discussing details for a potential second, in-person meeting with Iranian officials before a ceasefire expires on April 21.
On the domestic front, traders have completely priced out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), following the decline in the oil price amid US-Iran optimism, have also weighed on the US Dollar.
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
In a Semafor interview on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “the US should ‘wait and see’ before lowering interest rates.”
Additional quotes
Confident recent price increases are not “going to get embedded into inflation expectations.”
But I think as we went into January [and] came out of January and February — the economy was very strong.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index is modestly flat on the day near 98.40, licking its previous wounds.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.01% | -0.18% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | -0.00% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.08% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.15% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.14% | 0.07% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
China's Trade Balance for March, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY354.75 billion, narrowing sharply from the previous figure of CNY1.5 trillion.
Exports fell 0.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March from a 19.2% increase seen in January-February. The country’s imports jumped by a whopping 23.8% YoY in the same period vs. 17.1% recorded previously.
In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s Trade Surplus shrank more than expected in March.
Trade Balance arrived at +51.1B versus +112B expected and +213.62B prior.
Exports (YoY): 7.1% vs. 8.3% expected and 21.8% last.
Imports (YoY): 27.8% vs. 11.1% expected and 19.8% previous.
Market reaction to China’s Trade Balance
AUD/USD holds lower ground near 0.7080 in an immediate reaction to the Chinese trade data. The pair is down 0.14% on the day, as of writing.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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