Forex News
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that softer US non-farm payrolls and suspected FX intervention supported the Japanese Yen, pushing USD/JPY sharply lower. He highlights that weaker payrolls reduce the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike but do not clarify the broader labour and inflation outlook. Wan stresses that upcoming US holidays, low liquidity and ongoing intervention risks could keep USD/JPY under pressure in the near term.
Yen gains on weaker data and risk
"Overnight the Dollar was generally weaker and the Japanese Yen strengthened from 162.83 to as much as 160.64, before trading at 161.28 at the time of writing. This was driven by softer than expected US non-farm payrolls data, coupled with suspected FX intervention by Japanese authorities. In particular, payrolls rose by 57k, less than consensus expectations for a 113k rise, coupled with some downward revisions to the previous months."
"The overall implications for the Fed seems to be one where the payrolls report lowers the chance of a rate hike in the near-term, but has not ultimately clarified the health of the labour market and more importantly the path ahead for inflation. With the FOMC and Kevin Warsh stating that inflation has become the binding concern, the CPI and PCE inflation numbers are likely to become more important moving forward."
"Meanwhile, the market remains alert on further FX intervention risks by Japanese authorities moving forward. As noted by news reports, the price action in USD/JPY yesterday might be suggestive of the Ministry of Finance stepping in to sell Dollars to curb Yen weakness, but this was not officially confirmed. Reuters news reported that Japanese officials may now abandon telegraphing their intentions to the market, which would be unlike the case with intervention that happened on 30 April following ample warnings."
"Overall as we noted yesterday, with the key US holidays upcoming and as such a period of low liquidity, coupled with US data and non-farm payrolls supportive of a weaker Dollar in the near-term, we would be quite wary of intervention risks in the near-term. While it was not officially confirmed whether Japanese authorities intervened yesterday to bring USD/JPY lower, our bias is as such that intervention if it has indeed started may continue for a while more in order to help flush out speculative positions."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 3:
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to stay resilient against its major rivals on the last trading day of the week as investors evaluate the timing of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike following the disappointing June employment data. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases and the trading action is likely to remain subdued heading into the weekend, with the stock and bond markets in the United States (US) remaining closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.57% | -1.21% | -0.59% | -0.16% | -0.76% | -1.25% | -1.06% | |
| EUR | 0.57% | -0.70% | 0.00% | 0.38% | -0.21% | -0.75% | -0.55% | |
| GBP | 1.21% | 0.70% | 0.73% | 1.09% | 0.47% | -0.05% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.00% | -0.73% | 0.42% | -0.19% | -0.58% | -0.50% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.38% | -1.09% | -0.42% | -0.61% | -1.00% | -0.84% | |
| AUD | 0.76% | 0.21% | -0.47% | 0.19% | 0.61% | -0.52% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | 1.25% | 0.75% | 0.05% | 0.58% | 1.00% | 0.52% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | 1.06% | 0.55% | -0.15% | 0.50% | 0.84% | 0.29% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 57K in June. This print missed the market expectation for an increase of 110K by a wide margin. Additionally, the BLS noted that the change in total NFP for April was revised down by 31,000, and the change for May was revised down by 43,000. "With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported," the press release read. Although the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, it was driven by the Labor Force Participation Rate declining to 61.5% from 61.8%.
The USD Index turned south following the weak labor market figures and dropped to its lowest level in two weeks near 100.50 before recovering slightly to end the day deep in the red. Early Friday, the index stays on the back foot and loses more than 0.2% near 100.60. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 17% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in July, compared to about 30% before the release of the US employment data.
Major equity indexes in Asia registered strong gains on Friday as risk mood improved on retreating Fed tightening bets. South Korea's KOSPI gained 6%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both added over 1% on the day.
The Japanese Yen surged against the USD during the European trading hours on Thursday, causing markets to speculate whether there was an intervention in the foreign exchange market. USD/JPY extended its slide in the American session and lost about 1% on the day. Early Friday, the pair continues to stretch lower and was last seen losing about 0.25% on the day at 160.75. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Friday that officials are ready to act appropriately on currency fluctuations, while refusing to comment on specific currency levels.
EUR/USD benefited from the broad USD weakness and rose 0.5% on Thursday. The pair holds its ground in the European morning on Friday and trades slightly above 1.1450.
GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum after posting strong gains on Thursday and trades above 1.3350. The pair remains on track to end the week with a gain of more than 1%.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery toward $4,200 and rises more than 1% on Thursday. XAU/USD is up about 2% for the week and looks to snap a four-week losing streak.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- Silver price climbs to around $62.15 in Friday’s early European session.
- The white metal keeps the bearish vibe technically, with RSI momentum below the midline.
- The first upside barrier is located at $63.50; the initial support level to watch is $60.00.
Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps to the weekly high near $62.15 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The precious metal extends the rally as a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has reduced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly a 52% chance of a US rate hike by September, down from 66% before the jobs data.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding peace in the Middle East between the US and Iran. Renewed tensions between Wahington and Tehran could raise inflation worries, weighing the white metal.
Iran’s joint military command warned on Thursday that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a “decisive and swift response” as tensions continue to roil negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that “I think they have accepted nearly everything we require.”
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds in a bearish near-term stance as price sits below the Bollinger middle band and well under the 100-day moving average (MA). The metal hovers in the lower half of its Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 42 points to subdued bullish momentum and reinforces the view that recent bounces remain corrective within a broader downside phase.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band near $63.50, with further barriers at the $70.00 psychologocal level. The next hurdle to watch is the upper Bollinger band around $71.80 and the 100-day MA clustered higher toward $75.00.
On the other hand, the first downside target is seen at the $60.00 round mark. The next notable cushion aligns with the lower Bollinger band near $55.25, where failure would open the door to a deeper extension of the current decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team report a rebound in Asian equities, led by a sharp rise in the KOSPI and Samsung Electronics on AI chip news, alongside gains in Chinese and Australian indices. In Europe, the STOXX 600 and DAX reached record highs, supported by lower Oil prices, dovish central bank repricing, and German reform announcements that improved domestic sentiment.
Asia rebounds as Europe hits records
"The tech altitude sickness of late is reversing a bit this morning with the KOSPI (+4.60%) back up after a difficult week. The rally has been led by Samsung Electronics, which has surged +8.2% on reports that Anthropic PBC is in discussions with the company to produce a customised AI chip."
"Chinese equities are also rebounding, with the CSI 300 (+1.15%) recovering after two consecutive losses, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.69%) is posting moderate gains. The Hang Seng (+1.57%) is extending its weekly gain to around +4.0%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.38%) is trading notably higher, supported by stronger-than-expected services sector activity."
"This backdrop of lower oil prices and a dovish repricing was generally a very strong one for equities. That was particularly clear in Europe given its exposure to the energy shock, and the STOXX 600 (+1.41%) hit a new record high, as did the DAX (+2.16%)."
"Speaking of Europe, as highlighted earlier, Wednesday saw the German government announce a big reform package, which includes income tax relief, pension reforms, and reductions in red tape."
"In terms of next steps, the coalition partners have set themselves a clear deadline to implement these reforms by year-end, which should bode well for sentiment and dovetails with our economists’ forecast that growth will pick up in the second half of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- US Dollar Index could find the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 100.99.
- The Relative Strength Index at 54.2, indicating positive but not overstretched momentum.
- Primary support rests at the ascending channel's lower boundary, around 100.30.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day, trading around 100.60 during the early European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the dollar index is remaining within the ascending channel pattern.
The near-term tone stays mildly bullish as DXY holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while facing immediate pressure from the nine-day EMA acting as nearby resistance.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.2 hovers just above the neutral line, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum as the index consolidates between short-term resistance and underlying trend support.
The US Dollar Index may rebound toward the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 100.99. A break above the short-term price average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the dollar index to test the nearly 14-month high of 101.80, which was recorded on June 24, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 102.30.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 100.30, followed by the 50-day EMA at 99.93. Further declines below the channel would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to navigate the region around the four-month low of 97.62, recorded on May 6.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.34% | -0.51% | -0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.25% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.12% | -0.12% | -0.27% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.10% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.15% | -0.11% | -0.26% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.39% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.27% | -0.13% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.51% | 0.27% | 0.28% | 0.26% | 0.39% | 0.13% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.18% | -0.08% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- NZD/USD refreshes weekly high near 0.5725 as soft US data lifts market sentiment.
- The US NFP data came in lower at 57K vs. 110K estimates.
- The RBNZ is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps next week.
The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh weekly high at around 0.5725 during the European trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair reflects strength as risk-on market sentiment due to a slight cool down in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations has improved the appeal of antipodeans.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.25% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.33% | -0.47% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.25% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.25% | -0.00% | 0.00% | 0.11% | -0.13% | -0.24% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.37% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.26% | -0.11% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.47% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.29% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.15% | -0.09% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% to near 7,500 in the European trade, exhibiting strong demand for riskier assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 100.70.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday.
Traders trimmed hawkish Fed prospects after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release, which showed that the economy created fewer jobs than expected. The US NFP data arrived at 57K in June, significantly lower than estimates of 110K.
On the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) front, investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades higher at around 0.5725, approaching the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.5733.
A sharp recovery move by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the 20.00-40.00 range suggests that the bearish momentum has faded.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 0.5733 is the first resistance to clear, and a daily close above it would ease near-term downside pressure and open the way for a further recovery towards 0.5800. Looking down, the selling pressure would emerge if the pair falls back below the June 14 low at 0.5630. Such a scenario would expose the pair to the November 2025 low at 0.5580.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 02:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
ING’s commodities strategists highlight that Gold rallied after weaker US jobs data reduced fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Lower Treasury yields and a softer Dollar improved the appeal of non-yielding assets. They also note continued central bank buying, led by Poland and China, which remains an important source of structural support for the Gold market despite some selling by Russia and Turkey.
Fed outlook and central banks support gold
"In precious metals, gold moved sharply higher yesterday after weaker-than-expected US jobs data eased concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates this year. The softer payrolls report pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar lower, improving the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold."
"The move added to gains seen earlier in the week following less-hawkish-than-expected comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Investors are increasingly reassessing the outlook for US monetary policy. The market will remain focused on incoming economic data to determine whether the recent moderation in labour market conditions continues."
"This could further reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy and remain supportive for gold."
"Meanwhile, central banks returned as net gold buyers in May, adding around 41 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Poland remained the largest buyer, purchasing 18 tonnes and lifting year-to-date acquisitions to 64 tonnes. China extended its buying streak to 20 consecutive months, adding 10 tonnes."
"Russia, by contrast, was a net seller, reducing its holdings by 6 tonnes in May and taking year-to-date sales to 34 tonnes. Turkey also cut its gold reserves by 3 tonnes, bringing total sales this year to 81 tonnes. Strong central bank buying continues to provide an important source of support for the gold market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Turkey’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to show a modest disinflation surprise, with headline and core rates easing slightly and month-on-month inflation potentially below 1%. He cautions that underlying inflation remains high, global disinflation offers limited help, and entrenched domestic pressures mean interest rates cannot be safely cut without risking renewed Lira weakness.
High underlying inflation keeps Lira exposed
"Turkey’s statistics office (Turkstat) will publish June CPI and PPI data later today. The analyst consensus expects headline CPI at 32.1%y/y and core at 30.1%y/y, both slightly softer than the previous month. We see possibility of a dovish surprise by the data."
"We see possibility of a dovish surprise by the data. On the surface, this will be described to be confirming disinflation and will probably be cited by policymakers as verification that their strategy is working."
"First, after seasonal adjustment, such a print would still imply a 1.8%m/m rate of increase – which annualises to roughly 24% underlying inflation – and this will likely prove to be an interim low before the month-on-month rate creeps up again."
"Secondly, this prospective moderation in Turkey will lose significance amidst the widespread downside inflation surprises from elsewhere across Europe, including from Poland, where month-on-month price change dropped to outright negative. In other words, global disinflation is clearly occurring, but it is only weakly helping Turkey."
"This difference matters. If Turkey’s inflation problem is still domestically driven and entrenched in expectations, not just imported, then interest rates cannot be safely lowered and the lira will stay vulnerable to renewed pressure if CBRT [Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye] were to signal that rate cuts are a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
