Forex News
- The cross plunged near the start of the American session despite broad Euro gains elsewhere.
- The Yen jumped after the US payrolls shock, with traders alert to intervention a week on from the joint Tokyo-Washington operation.
- German industrial and trade figures offered the Euro little help, and the ECB is in no hurry.
EUR/JPY trades on the back foot on Friday, easing away even as the Euro (EUR) posts solid gains against the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese currency surged suddenly near the start of the American session after a surprisingly weak United States (US) employment report. But the cross recovered much of those losses fairly quickly.
Japan and the United States conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention last Friday, a rare bilateral action, and that memory is enough to make traders reluctant to sell the Yen into a US Dollar that fell over 1% against the Yen during the early American session on Friday. The Yen now drifts well away from the 40-year low it reached in July.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to adopt a cautious stance after leaving interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. Markets currently expect only one additional rate hike before the end of the year, with a lower chance of a second increase.
Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused US President Donald Trump of staging "theater diplomacy" on Thursday, and under the draft plan reported by Fars, US and Israeli ships would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz. Flows through the waterway are unlikely to return to pre-war levels any time soon even if Iran and Oman finalize their framework. For an economy that imports almost all of its energy through that route, higher and less certain Crude prices erode Japan's terms of trade, which is the mechanism that drove the Yen to four-decade lows in the first place.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 182.00, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 182.17 and the 100-period SMA at 184.70. The pair is caught under a nearby horizontal cap at 182.13, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 suggests subdued momentum rather than aggressive selling, hinting at a consolidative tone beneath these overhead levels.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 182.13, followed by the 20-period SMA at 182.17. Asustained break above this cluster would open the way toward the next barrier at 182.69 before the broader 100-period SMA near 184.70.
On the downside, initial support aligns at 181.76, ahead of a lower horizontal floor at 181.30 where the cross found support early in the American session on Friday. A decisive breach there would reinforce the bearish bias and expose deeper retracement levels in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- GBP/USD holds sideways, but upside bias survives above 1.3406.
- Break above 1.3558 opens the path toward 1.3600.
- Failure below 1.3500 risks a pullback toward key SMA support.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher by some 0.29% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, yet it remains trading sideways, unable to decisively crack 1.3500 after reaching a three-week peak of 1.3509, and has retreated to the 1.3490 area.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The technical picture shows that GBP/USD is consolidating, yet it is slightly tilted to the upside after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3406. Market structure suggests the uptrend might resume once buyers reclaim the July 15 swing high at 1.3558, opening the door to a test of 1.3600.
In that scenario, the next area of interest for GBP/USD would be the May 11 swing high at 1.3653, followed by 1.3700.
On the flip side, if GBP/USD remains below 1.3500, look for a pullback towards August’s 3 low of the day at 1.3417. A breach of the latter will expose the convergence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 1.3406/05, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.3365.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.24% | -0.54% | -0.38% | 0.13% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.38% | -0.41% | -0.15% | 0.28% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.53% | -0.27% | 0.14% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.38% | 0.06% | -0.72% | -0.48% | -0.01% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.54% | 0.41% | 0.53% | 0.72% | 0.25% | 0.72% | 0.68% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.15% | 0.27% | 0.48% | -0.25% | 0.40% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.28% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.72% | -0.40% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.68% | -0.40% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has firmed modestly, with the pair closing at 1.2835 after testing both 1.2800 and 1.2840. Short-term momentum now favors a mild upside, though strong resistance at 1.2850 is expected to cap gains. On a 1–3 week horizon, they still see downside risk, but stress that a clear break below 1.2790 is needed to signal further weakness.
Mild upside while downside risk lingers
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “the underlying tone has softened somewhat.” We indicated that USD “could edge lower,” but we pointed out that “given the lackluster downward momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach 1.2790.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. USD dipped to 1.2800 and then rose to 1.2840 before closing 0.16% higher at 1.2835. Upward momentum has increased, albeit not significantly. Today, USD could edge higher but based on the current momentum, any advance is unlikely to break the strong resistance at 1.2850. On the downside, a break below 1.2820 would indicate that current upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the same view since Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815), when we highlighted that while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” Although USD subsequently tested 1.2790, it has not been able to make further headway on the downside. We will maintain our view as long as 1.2850 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, but the likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 1.2790 has diminished."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Mexican Peso rallies as weak NFP crushes Fed hike expectations.
- Mexican inflation falls to six-year low after Banxico hold.
- USD/MXN rebounds from a low of 17.09 but remains under bearish pressure.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) capitalizes on a weaker US jobs report and soars versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as risk appetite improves and the Greenback gets battered on speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might not raise rates in 2026. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair trades at 17.18 after refreshing five-month lows at 17.09.
USD/MXN tumbles as Mexico’s inflation approaches target
The Mexican economic docket showed that inflation eased to a six-year low, from 3.37% to 3.12% YoY in July, according to INEGI, the National Statistics Agency. Core inflation, which strips volatile items, was 3.95% YoY, slightly exceeding forecasts of 3.94%. The report came a day after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) left rates unchanged at 6.50%, while hinting that the main reference rate would remain steady for the foreseeable future.
Should inflation continue its downward trajectory, it could end 2026 below Banxico’s 3.5% forecast for headline and underlying inflation in 2026. The central bank projects that inflation will converge to its 3% goal in the last quarter of 2027.
Earlier, US Nonfarm Payrolls for July showed a 23K job loss, missing the forecast of an 80K gain. May and June revisions cut 103,000 jobs, lower than before. The data support the Fed’s pause on rate hikes, but the Unemployment Rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The report weakened the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar's strength against six other currencies, has fallen by 0.42% to 99.54.
Next week, the Mexican economic calendar will feature June Industrial Output. Across the southern border, investors are eyeing the release of inflation on the consumer and producer side, followed by jobless claims data and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.1364, extending its retreat and holding below the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) trio now aligned near 17.4061, which reinforces a bearish near-term bias. The pair has also slipped back under the more recent downward resistance trend line, whose break point at 17.4584 acts as an additional topside cap, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 32.4 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure is stretched but not yet exhausted.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Triple SMA around 17.4061, followed by the downward-sloping trendline reference at 17.4584, where further rallies would likely stall unless momentum improves decisively. On the downside, the current area around 17.1364 is the immediate battleground, with a deeper slide opening the way toward the earlier structural break zone near 15.6962, while the RSI’s proximity to oversold levels suggests that any move lower could eventually invite a corrective bounce rather than a sustained reversal for now.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research notes that KRW is currently the best performing Asian currency, supported by strong semiconductor demand and reported FX intervention coordination between Korea, the US and Japan. Despite equity volatility in Korean chip stocks, physical memory demand and AI-related semiconductor needs are driving a terms-of-trade boom, reinforcing DBS’s preference to stay short USD/KRW on ongoing intervention risks.
Semiconductor boom and FX support
"KRW is the best performing Asian currency this week, lifted by strong semiconductor demand and intervention risks."
"Despite equity market volatility due to a correction in Korean semiconductor stock prices, physical demand for memory chips has not seen any correction and is powering memory prices to new highs."
"AI-related semiconductor demand is fuelling a massive term of trade boom for the Korean economy, and KRW is just beginning to benefit from this."
"Interestingly, the Korean authorities had reportedly co-ordinated with the US and Japan in FX market interventions to lift the KRW, though it is not of the same scale and impact as the JPY interventions."
"Risks of further joint interventions nudged by the US Treasury supports our view to stay short USD/KRW."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD holds near a seven-week high as weak US payrolls weigh on the US Dollar.
- Bullish RSI and MACD readings suggest buyers retain the upper hand.
- The 100-day SMA caps immediate gains, with a break exposing the 200-day SMA.
EUR/USD edges higher on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as traders scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets following a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1562, hovering near a seven-week high.
Price action, however, has been confined to a narrow range for more than a week, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) capping immediate upside attempts after the pair staged a rebound from below 1.1400 in late July.
Still, the near-term outlook remains bullish, as the dovish repricing of Fed rate expectations and optimism surrounding peace in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could keep the US Dollar on the defensive. The EUR/USD recovery faces its next major test from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due next week.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the 50-day SMA at 1.1471 offers immediate support, followed by the 1.1400 psychological mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 points to bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays positive, which hints that buyers retain an edge as long as price holds over the short-term average.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1568, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. A sustained break above these levels would expose the horizontal barriers at 1.1700 and 1.1800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Aug 12, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: -0.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- Gold jumps as weak NFP drags yields and the US Dollar lower.
- Fed hike odds sink after Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly contract in July.
- Hormuz reopening hopes pressure Oil, adding support for bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) skyrockets on Friday, gaining over 2.30% in the day and more than 7% in the week after US jobs data was mixed, with a softer Nonfarm Payrolls print while the Unemployment Rate remained steady. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,340 after hitting $4,371 earlier in the day, its highest level since June 17.
XAU/USD surges over 7% for the week on weak NFP, lower US yields
US jobs data disappointed investors after July Nonfarm Payrolls showed that the economy shed 23K jobs, missing forecasts for an 80K job gain. Payrolls for May and June were also downwardly revised, combined, slashing 103K people from the workforce, lower than previously reported. Even though the data justifies the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reluctance to increase interest rates to tackle inflation, the Unemployment Rate also ticked lower, from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The data pushed US Treasury yields lower and the Greenback as well. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down two basis points at 4,687%, a tailwind for bullion prices.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.42% to 99.54.
The Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that “jobs data was very consistent with a sector in weak balance.” He added that the report depicts the labor market as being in a “low hire, low fire” scenario.
Dip in energy prices hurts Fed hike bets
Geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets, which turned moderately optimistic about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that he believed that the war with Iran could be over soon.
Despite this, Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman, which reportedly would ban US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait, would only establish a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the waterway.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, is flat during the day around $78 per barrel, but is down almost 9.9% for the week.
The swaps market had priced in a lower probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its September meeting. The odds stand at 30%, down from 58% a day ago, while there’s a 70% chance the central bank will keep rates unchanged, according to Prime Terminal data.
Traders will be watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for July on Wednesday. Economists expect inflation to decrease slightly from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, with Core CPI also dipping from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a key input to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold challenges 100-day SMA as bulls target the 200-day SMA
Gold price seems poised to turn bullish as the yellow metal surpassed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,152, and it is on its way to challenge the 100-day SMA at $4,390. Momentum has turned bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the path of least resistance is upwards.
The next area of interest would be the 200-day SMA at $4,390. If breached, the next key resistance is $4,450, followed by the $4,500 mark.
Downwards, bullion’s first support level is the July 6 high, now turned support at $4,202. If this level is broken, the next targets are the 50-day SMA at $4,152 and $4,100. Below that, the August 3 daily low of $4,019 acts as further support.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s Q2 GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year, slowing from 5.6% but beating consensus. Stronger-than-expected H1 data leads the bank to raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.3%. However, a weak recovery in formal-sector employment and cautious private-sector investment suggest growth will remain modest, with government programmes and household consumption offsetting subdued external demand.
Growth beats but headwinds persist
"Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to 5.3% y/y in Q2 from 5.6% in Q1 but beat market expectations of 5.1%. While a slowdown was expected as one-off factors such as Eid spending and the harvest season faded, Q2 GDP still expanded faster than in 2025."
"We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.2% given stronger-than-expected H1 growth. We maintain our view that growth will remain modest, averaging 5.2% in H2, amid a weak recovery in formal-sector employment and still-cautious private-sector investment."
"Despite ongoing job creation – the unemployment rate fell to 4.65% in May from 4.74% in November 2025 – formal-sector jobs, which typically offer better income security, fell to 40.7% of total employment from 42.3% over the same period."
"We believe government priority programmes (including free meals, village cooperatives, social spending and infrastructure) and still-relatively healthy household consumption will support near-term growth."
"This should help to offset subdued external demand and still-cautious private-sector activity."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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