Forex News
- AUD/USD slumps to near 0.7000 as higher oil prices weigh on the Australian Dollar.
- The withdrawal of US non-emergency personnel from Gulf has prompted risks of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions.
- Investors keenly await the preliminary Australia-US PMI data for October.
The Australian Dollar underperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Thursday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the antipodean is down 0.4% to near the psychological level of 0.7000.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.85% | -0.03% | 0.48% | 0.55% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.08% | -1.14% | -0.34% | 0.17% | 0.24% | -0.65% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | 0.08% | -1.07% | -0.30% | 0.24% | 0.31% | -0.56% | |
| JPY | 0.85% | 1.14% | 1.07% | 0.80% | 1.33% | 1.37% | 0.51% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.34% | 0.30% | -0.80% | 0.52% | 0.60% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.17% | -0.24% | -1.33% | -0.52% | 0.06% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.24% | -0.31% | -1.37% | -0.60% | -0.06% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.65% | 0.56% | -0.51% | 0.29% | 0.80% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Risk-perceived currencies have come under pressure due to surging oil prices amid fears of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is up 1.5% to near $99.00.
Analysts at Commerzbank report that Middle East tensions “intensified after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field killed two people and injured two others,” but note that the impact on crude was ultimately contained. They highlight that “oil prices briefly jumped on reports suggesting a wider withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel from the Gulf,” before the move faded as “Washington clarified that the order was limited to Saudi Arabia,” prompting the market to pare earlier gains.
Meanwhile, the recovery move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also build pressure on the Aussie pair. In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 101.66 after revisiting the three-week low near 101.45.
The next trigger for the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar is expected to be the Australia-United States (US) flash private sector PMI data for October, which is scheduled for Friday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6996. The pair sits exactly at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 0.6996, turning it into a pivotal level and keeping the short-term bias neutral while price oscillates around this dynamic line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark at 48, hinting at a lack of clear directional momentum as recent downside pressure has slowed but buyers have yet to regain firm control.
With price pinned to the 20-day EMA and the delivery of a breakout of the Double Bottom formation, a sustained close above this pivot would open the door for the bulls to regain the upper hand and attempt a recovery toward prior highs around 0.7036. On the downside, the Aussie pair could enter a fresh leg of decline if it declines below the October 15 low at 0.6894.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that NZD/USD’s recovery stalled after reaching a one-month high, as New Zealand Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below expectations while underlying inflation remains persistent. Haddad highlights that above-target inflation and elevated Oil prices support further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening, but argues NZD/USD gains are limited because ongoing Fed tightening restricts policy convergence.
RBNZ tightening but gains limited
"NZD/USD recovery lost steam after testing a one month high at 0.5710. New Zealand Q3 CPI undershot expectations. Headline CPI increased 0.7% q/q vs. 1.5% in Q2, below the 0.8% rise forecast by consensus and RBNZ."
"Despite the softer headline reading, underlying inflation points to persistent price pressure. The RBNZ sector factor model printed at 2.8% y/y for a second straight quarter, near the top of its 1-3% target range. Meanwhile, CPI ex. petrol remained at 3.2% y/y for a fourth consecutive quarter."
"Above target inflation and still elevated oil prices argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes. The swaps curve price in 85% odds of a 25bps RBNZ rate hike to 3.00% on October 28 and more than 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.75% - near the upper end of the RBNZ’s estimated neutral range of 2.20%-4.10%. Nonetheless, NZD/USD upside is constrained because Fed tightening curbs the scope for policy convergence."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses ECB Chief Economist Lane’s argument that a larger global role for the euro could strengthen monetary policy transmission by extending its impact abroad and reducing exchange rate pass-through. She cautions that monetary policy effectiveness alone cannot guarantee price stability, as inflation also depends on structural, fiscal and external factors.
Global role and policy transmission
"Ahead of next week’s meetings, ECB and Fed officials are, inevitably, keeping a low profile. That does not mean, however, that they have nothing interesting to say beyond the short- to medium-term monetary policy outlook. Yesterday, for example, ECB Chief Economist Lane discussed the benefits of a growing international role for the euro."
"More specifically, he argued that broader international use of the single currency could help the ECB fulfill its price stability mandate. Its monetary policy would then influence not only domestic demand but, increasingly, demand abroad as well, thereby amplifying its impact."
"Moreover, greater use of the euro as an invoicing currency could reduce the exchange rate pass-through on inflation and make the euro area less vulnerable to external shocks."
"The bottom line should be clear: More effective monetary policy in theory is not enough on its own to safeguard a central bank’s credibility in delivering price stability."
"Inflation is shaped by numerous other factors, including the structure of the economy, fiscal policy and external shocks."
"A stronger role for the euro in the global financial system may improve monetary policy transmission, but it is certainly no panacea for price stability or monetary policy credibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- New Zealand Dollar trades lower against its peers due to softer-than-expected NZ Q3 CPI data.
- New Zealand CPI rose 0.7% in Q3, slower than 0.8% estimates and the previous quarter reading of 1.5%.
- A recovery move in the US Dollar has also weighed on the Kiwi pair.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades lower against its major currency peers on Thursday. The antipodean is down 0.25% to near 0.5679 against the US Dollar (USD) in the European session.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.10% | -0.82% | -0.11% | 0.27% | 0.42% | -0.39% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.95% | -0.29% | 0.12% | 0.27% | -0.57% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.05% | -0.92% | -0.25% | 0.16% | 0.31% | -0.50% | |
| JPY | 0.82% | 0.95% | 0.92% | 0.69% | 1.08% | 1.20% | 0.41% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.29% | 0.25% | -0.69% | 0.39% | 0.55% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.12% | -0.16% | -1.08% | -0.39% | 0.13% | -0.67% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | -0.27% | -0.31% | -1.20% | -0.55% | -0.13% | -0.78% | |
| CHF | 0.39% | 0.57% | 0.50% | -0.41% | 0.28% | 0.67% | 0.78% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
What has weakened the New Zealand Dollar?
Softer-than-expected New Zealand (NZ) Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has weighed on the Kiwi dollar.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) note that NZ Q3 CPI “undershot expectations,” with headline CPI rising “0.7% q/q vs. 1.5% in Q2, below the 0.8% rise forecast by consensus and RBNZ.”
Despite the downside surprise, BBH argues that “above target inflation and still elevated oil prices argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes.” They highlight that “the swaps curve price in 85% odds of a 25bps RBNZ rate hike to 3.00% on October 28 and more than 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.75% - near the upper end of the RBNZ’s estimated neutral range of 2.20%-4.10%.”
Meanwhile, recovery signs in the US Dollar have also weighed on the Kiwi pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 101.66 after revisiting the three-week low near 101.45.
Going forward, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for October, which is scheduled for Friday.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD trades at 0.5678 at the time of writing. The pair has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5661, shifting the near-term bias to a mild bullish tone as price now holds above this short-term trend gauge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 51 on the daily chart has turned back to neutral-to-positive territory, suggesting that downside pressure has eased and that the pair could extend its recovery while it remains supported above the EMA.
On the downside, initial support is defined by the 20-day EMA at 0.5661, where a break would undermine the nascent constructive bias and reopen the recent lows. As long as NZD/USD stays above this moving average, buyers are likely to defend dips, leaving the focus on whether the pair can build a base for a more sustained rebound in the sessions ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (QoQ)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures changes in the price of goods and services bought by New Zealand households. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Oct 21, 2026 21:45
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 0.7%
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 1.5%
Source: Stats NZ
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) inflation target being around the midpoint of 2%, Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication is of high significance. The trend in consumer prices tends to influence RBNZ’s interest rates decision, which in turn, heavily impacts the NZD valuation. Acceleration in inflation could lead to faster tightening of the rates by the RBNZ and vice-versa. Actual figures beating forecasts render NZD bullish.
- XAU/USD drops sharply on Thursday to test the lowest levels in nearly three months, at $4,070.
- The surging Oil prices have offset the positive impact of lower US Treasury yields.
- Below $4,070, bears will be attracted by the $4,000 psychological level.
Gold (XAU/USD) drops sharply on Tuesday to test the bottom of the last three weeks’ trading range, and a nearly three-month low at $4,070, which so far remains intact. Precious metals remain on their back foot on Thursday, weighed by higher Oil prices, as the Middle East conflict threatens to complicate further and Yemeni Houthi militias keep pounding Saudi oilfields
Brent Oil is testing five-month highs around $109.00 and WTI Crude approaches $100 following a New York Times report suggesting that the US and Israel might be considering renewing coordinated attacks on Iran after the US midterm election.
Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure from the Iran-backed Houthis continue. A drone attack on Aramco’s Shaybah Oil field has reportedly killed two people and reactivated concerns about supply disruptions. All this is contributing to the recent escalation in Crude prices and offsetting the traditional positive impact on precious metals from the pullback in US Treasury yields.
Technical Analysis: Bears test $4,070 with $4,000 in sight
XAU/USD trades at $4,085.58, just above a key support area around $4,070 that has been containing downside attempts since late September. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart support the bearish view as the Relative Strength Index (14) dips toward the low-30s, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero.
A confirmation below the mentioned $4,070 area (October 7, 14 lows) would bring the late July and early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area into focus. Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to be tested at Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs around $4,150, ahead of the $4,200 area (October 13 and 16 highs), and the range top around $4,230.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ING’s Chris Turner says sterling strength reflects both independent GBP gains and Euro weakness in EUR/GBP. Earlier concerns that Pound gains would fade have eased as markets gain confidence in the Bank of England’s tightening path, with ING expecting 25bp hikes in February and November. Turner sees next week’s UK budget as unlikely to derail EUR/GBP’s break below 0.8400, keeping the pair in a 0.8360–0.8430 range.
Sterling supported by BoE tightening
"It seems like sterling is riding on the coat-tails of PM Andy Burnham's popularity. In reality, it looks like there is both independent sterling strength and independent euro weakness at play in EUR/GBP."
"Earlier this summer, we had felt that sterling gains would not last. But now greater market confidence in a Bank of England tightening cycle – we look for 25bp hikes in February and November – makes sterling a high-carry European currency."
"Next week's UK budget looks unlikely to derail the recent EUR/GBP break below 0.8400. And with the euro still having plenty of room to drop on French politics, EUR/GBP can stay offered in a 0.8360-0,8430 range for the time being."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/INR is drifting toward the lower end of its six-month 94.14-96.95 range, helped by recent FX-supportive measures from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). They cite speculative INR buying on optimism over a possible US-India trade agreement, strong foreign interest in the Reliance Jio IPO, and RBI concerns about inflation, while warning that Oil, flows and US Dollar (USD) direction will determine rally durability.
Rupee steadies on RBI measures
"USD/INR is quietly gravitating toward the lower end of its six-month 94.14-96.95 range, supported by a series of FX-supportive measures unveiled by the RBI in recent weeks."
"The latest round of INR buying may be speculative on optimism surrounding a potential US-India trade agreement."
"Solid foreign participation in the ongoing $3.2bn Reliance Jio IPO may also be helping."
"The RBI minutes published yesterday confirmed growing concern over the inflation outlook."
"While RBI actions are helping stabilise the currency for now, the durability of the rally will ultimately depend on oil prices, portfolio flows and the broader direction of the dollar."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CHF price action as directionless intraday, expecting a 0.8225–0.8260 range as momentum remains muted. On a 1–3 week horizon they retain a bearish bias, looking for a move toward 0.8200 while keeping strong resistance at 0.8275. Their earlier 1–3 month view had anticipated a rebound, but not enough momentum to revisit the July peak at 0.8206.
Swiss Franc retains mild upside bias
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected USD “to trade in a range between 0.8225 and 0.8270.” USD traded within a narrower range of 0.8234/0.8263, closing largely unchanged at 0.8244 (-0.02%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade in a range between 0.8225 and 0.8260."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (16 Oct, spot at 0.8280), we highlighted that “downward momentum is building and if USD closes below 0.8245, it could decline toward 0.8225.” After USD subsequently fell to a low of 0.8215, we highlighted on Monday (19 Oct, spot at 0.8240) that USD “could decline further to 0.8200.” We will maintain our view as long as USD holds below 0.8275 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.8290)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,100, and the three latest analyses cannot agree on what the level means: one sees the bounce from support as confirmation of a potential push toward $4,227, another argues every rally is vulnerable while price sits under its 20-day EMA, and the third points to India's Diwali buying season as the physical test about to meet the market.
Independent Analyst Mohamad Gharib: The Arc that refused to break
Gharib is the bull, reading Gold from Arc Cycle Analysis on the 4h chart. "The rebound confirms a bullish reaction and opens the potential for continued movement higher, toward 4,227," he notes, after a failed attempt to break below the 1 (100%) Support Arc within the current cycle. The caveat is explicit: "a sustained 4h close below 4,105 would invalidate the bullish scenario and could reopen the path toward the next Support Arc." His number is already being tested - the spot price quoted by the other analysts has slipped to $4,095. — Read the full report
FXStreet’s Sagar Dua: Oil, inflation fears and a Fed holding the line
Dua is the bear of the trio, reporting "Gold is down 1% to near $4,095 in the Asian trading session on Thursday on the back of fears that global inflation expectations could accelerate further due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East." His logic is policy-driven: higher inflationary pressures push central banks toward tighter money, which "bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold," and the Fed is expected to hold rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range next Wednesday, with its guidance - not necessarily the decision - the key trigger. Technically, XAU/USD sits below the 20-day EMA at roughly $4,172 with the RSI around 40 in negative territory; a daily close above the EMA is needed to ease the downside bias. — Read the full report
Citadel Gold’s Shaun Bina: Diwali is the tiebreaker
Bina shifts the lens to the physical market. India accounted for 27% of global jewelry demand and 16% of global bar and coin demand in the second quarter, according to the WGC, so "festival buying is a visible input to the physical market behind XAU/USD" - with Dhanteras on November 6 and Diwali on November 8. The 2026 season opens with friction: a 15% import duty (the largest increase on record, imposed in mid-May), a weaker rupee, and a demand mix that has shifted from jewelry to bullion - first-half bar and coin buying reached about 113 tonnes, the highest in 13 years. The price-sensitive signal is already positive: dealers moved from discounts of up to $6 an ounce to premiums of up to $7 in mid-October, the first premium in more than three months, as the price pullback lifted purchases, Reuters reported via the piece. His watch list runs through the festival: whether the premium holds after Diwali, October import data, and the rupee channel. — Read the full report
The takeaway
The market is one level away from a verdict: Gharib's bullish Arc scenario needs a sustained 4h close back above $4,105 to stay alive, while Dua's bearish case needs the $4,172 EMA to keep rejecting rallies - with price now below both. Bina adds the third variable the charts cannot price: Indian festival demand whose premium has just turned positive for the first time in more than three months. Watch the 4h close at $4,105 first, the Fed's guidance Wednesday second, and the post-Diwali premium last - physical strength meeting the festival season is the kind of tiebreaker technicals rarely anticipate.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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