Forex News
- GBP/USD slides to a fresh almost three-week low near 1.3316 as the US Dollar strengthens.
- The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at least once this year have increased to 74.2%.
- Investors await the US CPI data for May and the UK GDP data for April.
The GBP/USD pair trades marginally lower to near 1.3338 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair posts a fresh almost three-week low near 1.3316 in the day, as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this year.
During press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Friday’s gains near 100.10.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.18% | 0.96% | 0.53% | 1.08% | 1.71% | 2.90% | 2.13% | |
| EUR | -1.18% | -0.23% | -0.65% | -0.10% | 0.52% | 1.72% | 0.94% | |
| GBP | -0.96% | 0.23% | -0.38% | 0.12% | 0.75% | 1.95% | 1.15% | |
| JPY | -0.53% | 0.65% | 0.38% | 0.58% | 1.21% | 2.37% | 1.59% | |
| CAD | -1.08% | 0.10% | -0.12% | -0.58% | 0.60% | 1.79% | 1.02% | |
| AUD | -1.71% | -0.52% | -0.75% | -1.21% | -0.60% | 1.19% | 0.42% | |
| NZD | -2.90% | -1.72% | -1.95% | -2.37% | -1.79% | -1.19% | -0.78% | |
| CHF | -2.13% | -0.94% | -1.15% | -1.59% | -1.02% | -0.42% | 0.78% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the possibility of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year has increased to 74.2% from 45.2% seen a week ago.
Hawkish Fed bets have escalated following the release of the surprisingly strong United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May on Friday, which showed that the economy created 172K fresh jobs, significantly higher than 85K estimates.
This week, major triggers for the GBP/USD pair will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades lower at around 1.3330 with a bearish near-term bias, holding beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3434. The overall trend appears to be sideways amid a Symmetrical Triangle formation.
The pair has slipped away from its recent consolidation highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 hints at building downside pressure rather than an imminent recovery while price remains capped by these overhead levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.3434, with a break above that exposing the descending resistance trend line near 1.3585 as the next hurdle. On the downside, the former rising support structure is now tracked by the break area around 1.3239, which acts as the first meaningful support level; a clear drop through this zone would likely open the way to a deeper bearish extension towards 1.3200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jun 12, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: 0.3%
Source: Office for National Statistics
ING’s Chris Turner notes EUR/USD was hit hard as the Dollar surged, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to sound hawkish while delivering a 25bp hike to 2.25%. Despite expected ECB support, he anticipates EUR/USD staying under pressure near 1.1500, with the 1.14/1.15 region likely to hold this summer as markets test a Fed tightening cycle.
Euro pressured despite ECB hike expectations
"EUR/USD was hit hard on Friday as the dollar surged across the board. This increases pressure on the European Central Bank to sound hawkish this Thursday when it is widely expected to raise its deposit rate 25bp to 2.25%."
"A hawkish-sounding ECB is our call, and one which will maintain the view that it will hike again in September when it has a new round of forecasts."
"On the activity side, we have already seen a weak batch of German factory orders data for April today, and the risk is that eurozone manufacturing activity data now starts to deteriorate after hoarding/inventory building earlier this year around the uncertainty of the Gulf conflict."
"With energy prices starting to turn bid again, expect EUR/USD to stay offered and 1.1500 to remain under pressure. At this stage, we probably think support in the 1.14/15 region has a chance of holding this summer, but it will remain pressured while the market explores the idea of a Fed tightening cycle."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow Jones futures struggle as risk aversion increases after Israel and Iran exchange strikes.
- US stock futures are mixed following a sharp Wall Street selloff led by heavy tech and semiconductor losses.
- US Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting on June 16–17.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.33% to near 50,750 during the European hours on Monday, ahead of the US regular opening. However, S&P 500 futures gain 0.10% to near 7,410 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.35%, trading near 29,130 at the time of writing.
US index futures face challenges amid geopolitical risks after the Israeli military stated a missile had been launched from Yemen towards Israeli territory, which has been intercepted by its aerial defense systems. Iran-backed Houthis confirm that they have launched attacks on Israel as a group and 'ban' Israeli shipping in the Red Sea.
US stock futures showed mixed performance following a sharp Wall Street selloff, which was primarily driven by heavy losses in semiconductor and technology shares. The market downturn was further fueled by stronger-than-expected US employment data for May. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs, while the previous month's reading was significantly revised upward to 179,000. With the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.3%, the robust labor market reinforced investor expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year.
US Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. However, expectations for future monetary tightening have gained traction. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, sparking fresh concerns about a resurgence of inflationary pressures.
The regular Friday session saw aggressive selling across all major indexes, with technology stocks bearing the brunt of the damage. The Dow Jones fell 1.35%, and the S&P 500 plunged 2.64%. Led by a steep rout in chipmakers, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed 4.18%, marking its worst single-day performance since April 2025.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- GBP/JPY attracts some buyers after touching a one-week trough earlier this Monday.
- Intervention fears and BoJ rate hike bets underpin the JPY, capping gains for the cross.
- The UK political turmoil further warrants caution before positioning for further gains.
The GBP/JPY cross stages a modest recovery from over a one-week low, around the 213.30 region touched earlier this Monday, and sticks to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session. Spot prices, however, remain below the 214.00 mark, warranting caution for aggressive bulls amid mixed cues.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid worries that Japan's economy will remain under strains due to the Middle East conflict and the continued disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws some support from a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. These turn out to be key factors acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
The JPY bears, however, seem hesitant amid speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. Moreover, data released earlier today showed that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter, outpacing consensus estimates and bolstering bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its June 15-16 meeting. This helps limit JPY losses and might cap the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's authority has been severely shaken following the resignations of junior ministers, fueling political uncertainty. This, in turn, might continue to undermine the GBP and contribute to keeping a lid on the GBP/JPY cross. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases, the fundamental backdrop suggests that any further intraday move is likely to be solid into and remain limited.
Japanese Yen Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 30 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.75% | 1.68% | 2.08% | 2.05% | 2.29% | 2.34% | 2.15% | |
| EUR | -1.75% | -0.09% | 0.33% | 0.32% | 0.45% | 0.55% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | -1.68% | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.41% | 0.62% | 0.68% | 0.49% | |
| JPY | -2.08% | -0.33% | -0.45% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.18% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -2.05% | -0.32% | -0.41% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -2.29% | -0.45% | -0.62% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.15% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -2.34% | -0.55% | -0.68% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.15% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -2.15% | -0.40% | -0.49% | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.04% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC reports that the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate at 5.25% but unveiled targeted capital flow measures, including concessional FX swaps and tax exemptions for foreign investors in government bonds. These steps should support India’s balance of payments and the Rupee near term, though the bank still expects 50 bp of tightening in FY27 as food and energy inflation pressures build.
Capital flow tools and future tightening
"At the June RBI meeting, the policy rate was unanimously held at 5.25%, but the focus was on a suite of capital flow measures."
"These include concessional FX swap rates, available through 30 September, to encourage state-owned firms and banks to raise USD funding. The RBI also announced tax exemptions for foreign investment in government securities, tightened rules on export proceeds repatriation, and broadened the pool of eligible long-tenor government bonds for foreign institutional investors."
"Overall, these steps are incrementally positive for India’s balance of payments and could lift market sentiment, providing near-term support to INR. That said, our economists still expect cumulative tightening of 50bp in FY27."
"Risks are tilted towards more hikes, as inflation pressures are building not only from energy but increasingly from food."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
According to an Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, the United States (US) is responsible for the recent ceasefire breaches. “The actions of the Zionist entity within the region cannot be looked at in isolation from the United States, Baghaei said.
Market reaction
There seems to a decent uptick arriving in the WTI Oil price, following Iran Baghaei's comments. As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 4.5% higher at around $92.55.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The euro retreats from session highs near 0.8650 against the British Pound, but remains between previous ranges above 0.8630.
- German Factory Orders dropped well beyond expectations in April.
- The EUR/GBP pair is forming a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.
The Euro (EUR) has turned lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, although it remains moving within Friday's range. The pair retreated from session highs near 0.8650 and trades at 0.8637 at the time of writing, as downbeat German Factory Orders have set the Euro under renewed pressure.
Data released by Destatis earlier on Monday revealed that industrial orders dropped 3.8% in April, more than three times the 1,2% decline anticipated by the market consensus. Beyond that, March figures have been revised down to a 4.5% increase from the previous 5.0% estimate. These figures highlight the negative impact of the Middle East war on the Eurozone’s industrial sector.
Technical Analysis: In a triangle pattern with a bearish outcome favoured
EUR/GBP is trading sideways, with technical indicators showing a neutral-to-bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 4-hour chart remains unable to extend above the 50 mark while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative and flattening, altogether hinting at a mild bearish momentum.
The technical picture shows the pair trading within a symmetrical triangle. This is considered a continuation pattern and, therefore, the favoured outcome is negative. Sellers, however, will have to confirm below Friday's low, at 0.8630, to expose the May 25 low at 0.8618 and the year-to-date (YTD) lows, at 0.8611.
Upside attempts, on the other hand, are likely to be tested at the 0.8655 area (May 4, 5 highs). Further up, the top of the triangle, at 0.8675, and the area between May 29 and May 19 highs at 0.8681 and 0.8687, respectively, are the next targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.01% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.21% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.19% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.21% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.00% | 0.01% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.19% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.25% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Danske Research Team describes Friday’s equity selloff as heavily concentrated in US semiconductor and large-cap tech names after a roughly 50% two‑month rally. The bank argues the move was not primarily driven by Iran headlines or US jobs data. It characterizes current conditions as a strong bull market where sharp, temporary setbacks are to be expected.
Tech correction follows steep prior gains
"Equities sold off sharply on Friday, particularly during the US session, led by tech. Still, it is worth noting that more industries actually finished higher than lower on the day, despite the weakness in the headline US indices. The sell-off was extremely concentrated: US semiconductors were down 8.2%, and semis account for roughly 15% of the S&P 500."
"The VIX rose to 21, headline indices were lower, led by Nasdaq, but small caps outperformed. That points to tech-led large-cap underperformance rather than a broad-based risk-off move. Importantly, this had nothing to do with Iran. The Iran headlines came later, and oil was down on Friday. Nor was this caused by stronger jobs data."
"That may well have been the trigger, but it is a poor explanation for the move. The real reason is that global tech, the largest sector in the world, had risen around 50% in just about two months. After that kind of move, setbacks like Friday's are entirely normal."
"Even if the Fed were to hike, or if oil were to rise 3% (like this morning), that does not change the outlook for the AI build-out or the extreme earnings growth currently being delivered. Hence, this should not be used as the excuse for why tech sold off on Friday."
"Asia is massively lower this morning, especially in markets where tech has driven strong year-to-date performance. That should be seen in the same light. European futures are lower, catching up to Friday's late US weakness, while US futures, especially in the tech space, are higher this morning."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY held above 160.00 and closed modestly higher around 160.25. Intraday, mild upward momentum points to a move toward 160.50, with major resistance at 160.75 unlikely to be threatened immediately. Over 1–3 weeks, the pair is expected to rise gradually toward 160.75, provided support at 159.60/159.95 holds.
Dollar Yen retains gentle upside bias
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD traded between 159.70 and 160.07 last Thursday. On Friday, we stated that “the price action provides no fresh clues, and USD could trade between 159.65 and 160.15.” During the early NY session, USD dipped to a low of 159.82 and then rose to 160.34. USD closed modestly higher at 160.29, up by 0.17%. The slight increase in upward momentum suggests that USD is likely to edge higher to 160.50. The major resistance at 160.75 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 160.05; a breach of 159.95 would suggest that the current mild upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted last Thursday (04 Jun, spot at 159.90) that “upward momentum has largely faded,” and we expected USD “to range-trade, albeit with a firm underlying tone, likely between 159.20 and 160.30.” Last Friday, USD rose above 160.30, printing a high of 160.34. Upward momentum is building, albeit tentatively. From here, USD could rise gradually, and the level to watch is 160.75. To sustain the momentum, USD must hold above 159.60 (‘strong support’ level)"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Iran-backed Houthis confirm that have launched attacks on Israel as group and 'bans' Israeli shipping in Red Sea. Meanwhile, the Israeli military has said that the new barrage of missiles is incoming from Iran, leading to fears of a resumption of an all-out war in the Middle East.
Earlier in the day, the Israeli military also confirmed attacks from Yemen and Iran, adding that its aerial defense system intercepted them.
Market reaction
No immediate reaction by the US Dollar following headlines from Yemen-based Houthis. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades close to its two-month high at around 100.10.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
