Forex News
- AUD/USD rebounds as soft ADP data weighs on Dollar.
- Australia GDP beats forecasts, though RBA remains inflation-focused.
- Fed hike bets stay elevated amid Iran-driven energy risks.
The Australian Dollar advanced on Wednesday versus the US Dollar after economic data in the US revealed the labour market weakened slightly, while the Greenback dipped on intervention speculation in the FX markets. Aside from this, the market’s tone seems positive with Wall Street finishing the session in the green
AUD/USD advances as weaker US hiring and firm Australia growth pressure US Dollar
The AUD/USD trades at 0.7169 after hitting a daily low of 0.7121, up 0.35%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged down 0.08% to 99.57.
Data from the US revealed that private hiring slowed, with the ADP National Employment Change in August dipping from 46K to 38K, below forecasts of 47K.
Aside from US data, geopolitics continued to grab the headlines, as US President Donald Trump warned that “Renewed campaign against Iran won’t continue for too long,” implying that further attacks are on the table.
This puts upward pressure on energy prices and on global bond yields. Hence, money markets continued to price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September 16 meeting, with odds at 67.50%, according to Prime Terminal.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remain split on whether policy is restrictive, as New York Fed President John Williams stated that inflation data has been “slowly” improving but recognized that policy is appropriate to tame high prices. Eyes will turn to Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, a move that could align with the “hawkish” tilt shown by Fed Chair Warsh last week.
In Australia, GDP figures for Q2 2026 rose by 0.4% QoQ and 2.1% YoY, both exceeding forecasts, though the YoY figure was down from 2.5%. The data won’t move the needle as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is squarely focused on tackling inflation.
Ahead, the Aussie economic docket will feature S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs, alongside with Trade Balance data.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7169, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the simple moving average cluster around 0.7026 and an ascending trend-line support zone near 0.7002–0.6897. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 62 leans into positive territory, suggesting buyers still have the upper hand while the pair trades well above the previously broken downward trend-line area, which now underpins the advance.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier around 0.7198, with the next bullish objective aligned with the projected ascending trend structure near 0.7339. On the downside, initial support is seen at the simple moving average region around 0.7026, followed by trend-line cushions near 0.7002 and 0.6897; a break below these levels would expose the deeper structural floor implied by the prior resistance line down toward 0.6389.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.).
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.23% | -0.90% | -0.37% | -0.33% | 0.73% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.19% | -0.92% | -0.42% | -0.37% | 0.66% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.19% | -1.11% | -0.59% | -0.56% | 0.44% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.90% | 0.92% | 1.11% | 0.50% | 0.56% | 1.59% | 1.04% | |
| CAD | 0.37% | 0.42% | 0.59% | -0.50% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.56% | -0.56% | -0.05% | 1.03% | 0.50% | |
| NZD | -0.73% | -0.66% | -0.44% | -1.59% | -1.08% | -1.03% | -0.53% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.08% | -1.04% | -0.54% | -0.50% | 0.53% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY trades near 158.50 after tagging 160.00 in Asian hours.
- Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3%, a first since 1996.
- July's coordinated defence cost above $100 billion and has nearly unwound.
The Yen had its best session in weeks on Wednesday and it still looks like a losing position. USD/JPY printed just above 160.00 in Asian hours, the highest since the last days of July, then reversed more than two Yen to trade near 158.50 on nothing more concrete than a meeting readout and renewed intervention chatter. The 158.50 shelf gave way by roughly thirty pips before the pair reclaimed it.
What the deterrent costs now
Six weeks ago Tokyo and Washington ran the first joint Yen-buying operation since 1998, and the invoice was enormous. Reported Japanese selling ran near $60 billion on the Thursday and $25 billion on the Friday, with a further tranche the following Monday and an American leg sized in the region of $5 to $10 billion. The pair fell from close to 164.00 to a low near 155.25.
That is roughly nine Yen for more than $100 billion of reserves, and five weeks later the tape was back above 160.00 with almost all of it given away. Wednesday's two-Yen drop cost nothing at all, arriving on a readout of a meeting between Japan's finance minister and the US Treasury Secretary in which both sides agreed that orderly moves matter. The deterrent is getting cheaper and smaller at the same time, which is what happens when a market stops trading a level and starts trading a speed limit.
Firepower is not the binding constraint, which is the part the market has correctly worked out. Tokyo secured access to a Federal Reserve facility that lets it raise Dollar liquidity against Treasury collateral rather than selling the bonds outright, so the reserve position is not the ceiling on how often it can act. What limits the defence is that every operation sells into a fundamental picture that refills the trade within weeks. Ammunition is abundant. Durability is the missing ingredient.
The differential is being set in the bond market
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3% this week for the first time since 1996, and on any conventional reading that should be the Yen's rescue. It is not, because the move is being driven by an expansionary fiscal programme and the debt service arithmetic that comes with it, rather than by expectations of tighter policy. Bond investors are pricing supply. Currency investors are pricing the same thing and reaching the opposite conclusion.
The one lever that genuinely changes the carry is the September 18 Bank of Japan decision, and the signals point one way. The Governor has flagged that upside price risks deserve more weight, Washington has been openly pressing for a move, and imported inflation is running through an energy bill the conflict keeps inflating. Even a quarter point leaves the gap to a Federal Reserve priced around two thirds for a hike on September 16 more than two and a half percentage points wide.
The American labour week decides the retest
Thursday delivers initial jobless claims at 12:30 GMT with a 205K consensus against 203K, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 14:00 GMT, seen at 54.3 against 54.1 with prices paid last at 70.3. Wednesday's private payrolls miss at 38K against a 47K consensus did not dent the Dollar, which is the clearest evidence available that this market is trading the inflation leg of the mandate rather than the employment leg.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls at 12:30 GMT carry a 58K consensus against a prior reading of 23K jobs lost, with unemployment seen at 4.1% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% on the month. A firm print puts the pair back at 160.00 inside a fortnight of the Bank of Japan meeting, and it does so from a starting level the authorities have already described as disorderly once this summer. That is the setup worth watching, because it forces a decision from Tokyo before the policy tool arrives. Two Federal Reserve officials speak on Thursday, at 12:30 and 19:00 GMT, and either one can move the front end of the American curve far enough to matter here.
Levels and bias
Resistance: The 160.00 handle carries the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) almost exactly and doubles as the zone that draws official comment, so the first test above it is a policy event rather than a technical one. Beyond that, 160.50 is the nearest clean level, and the late-July peak near 164.00 is the only structure left above it.
Support: The 158.50 area is the floor that matters and it held on a retest Wednesday, with 158.00 beneath it. The 200-day EMA near 157.50 is the level a genuine trend change would need to break, and the intervention low near 155.25 sits well below anything the tape is currently negotiating.
Bias: Bullish while 158.50 holds. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 87 argues the upside is stretched in the short run, and it should be, because the rate gap does the work here and momentum readings do not. Official action caps this pair rather than reversing it, and a daily close beneath 158.00 is the only thing that would change that reading.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- GBP/USD trades just under 1.3500, roughly 1.5% below the August peak.
- UK 10-year gilt yields sit at their highest since 2008.
- Private payrolls printed 38K in August against a 47K consensus.
Sterling has spent Wednesday handing back the last of its August rally, with GBP/USD trading just under 1.3500 after a session low a shade beneath 1.3475. That is roughly 1.5% below the peak short of 1.3700 the pair reached in the final days of August, and it leaves the tape at its weakest in three weeks. The awkward part of the decline is what British bond yields have been doing the entire way down.
The wrong kind of yield rise
UK 10-year borrowing costs pushed above 5.20% this week, the highest since 2008, with the long end making fresh eighteen-year highs alongside them. A currency is normally supposed to treat that as an invitation, because higher yields pay foreign holders to show up and take the paper. Sterling has done the opposite all week, and the answer is in what the yield is compensating for.
The September 17 meeting compounds the problem rather than relieving it, because it is a supply event as well as a rate event. The Monetary Policy Committee publishes its annual decision on the pace of gilt sales alongside the decision itself, which puts the one variable the long end actually cares about into the same announcement as the one Sterling cares about. A market already unwilling to buy eighteen-year yields is unlikely to enjoy being told how much more paper is coming.
Nothing in the British rate path has moved enough to justify a repricing of this size. Three of nine votes went for 4% at the July meeting, the September 17 decision reads as a live possibility rather than a base case, and most forecasters still have Bank Rate unchanged through year end. What has moved is the fiscal question, with a first Budget due October 28 from a finance minister who has pledged to keep the borrowing rules he inherited. Yields that rise on supply and debt service do not buy a currency bid. They price a discount.
The Dollar leg has an actual rate story
The private payrolls survey landed at 38K for August against a 47K consensus and a 46K prior, a clear miss, and the Dollar did not blink. Six weeks ago a number like that would have trimmed hike expectations and taken the Greenback down with them. The reaction function changed at the Jackson Hole keynote, where the chair argued inflation had not slowed meaningfully, and pricing for a hike at the September 16 meeting roughly doubled inside an afternoon to around two thirds.
The energy channel is what keeps that framing alive. Renewed American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation across the Gulf have held Crude Oil above $90.00, which feeds straight into the price data the committee has told the market it is watching. Factory Orders for July at 0.9% against a 0.6% consensus gave the other side of the argument nothing to work with. The Beige Book at 18:00 GMT is the session's last word.
What the rest of the week can still change
Thursday brings the services survey at 14:00 GMT, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) seen at 54.3 against 54.1, and a prices paid component that ran at 70.3 last month. Initial jobless claims at 12:30 GMT carry a 205K consensus against 203K, and the Challenger layoff count at 09:30 GMT follows a prior reading of 33.429K. Two Federal Reserve officials speak either side of the American session. Neither is likely to decide the argument alone, though the prices paid line is the one that matters most to a committee reading energy costs into its inflation forecast.
Friday's payrolls report is the only release this week heavy enough to move the pair on its own. Nonfarm payrolls at 12:30 GMT carry a 58K consensus against a prior reading of 23K jobs lost, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.1% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% on the month and 3% YoY. The British side offers almost nothing to counter it, with Monetary Policy Report hearings on Thursday and a speech from the Bank of England Governor at 08:50 GMT Friday, four hours before the American number lands. Sterling is a passenger this week.
Levels and bias
Resistance: The 1.3500 area is the first hurdle and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits inside it, which makes Wednesday's high a rejection rather than a probe. Above that, 1.3550 caps any first serious recovery attempt, and only the late-August peak short of 1.3700 would put the August trend back in play.
Support: The 200-day EMA near 1.3400 is the last technical object between the current tape and open ground. A daily close beneath it opens 1.3350, then 1.3300, with 1.3200 the objective on an extension and the late-June basing area near 1.3150 behind it.
Bias: Bearish. The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has rolled over from near 90 without going anywhere close to oversold, the pair is pinned between two moving averages it has stopped respecting on the upside, and the only British catalyst before September 17 is a Budget eight weeks out. Rallies into 1.3500 are for selling until a daily close above 1.3550 says otherwise.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CHF holds near 0.8120 after Yen intervention speculation.
- RSI turns bullish, hinting at further upside in a corrective trade.
- Break above 0.8156 exposes 0.8200 and the yearly high.
The USD/CHF pair advances some 0.13% on Wednesday as the Greenback holds within familiar levels, after depreciating versus the Japanese Yen amid speculation of an intervention in the FX markets. This dragged the pair from around five-week highs to the 0.8120 area.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Price action shows USD/CHF is poised to trade sideways after bouncing off a two-month low of 0.7949 on August 20, to current exchange rate levels. From a market structure perspective, the pair is on a corrective leg before extending the downtrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish, aiming higher and hinting at further upside.
For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF must clear the high of the day at 0.8156 ahead of challenging 0.8200. A decisive breakout will expose the current year high at 0.8207, followed by the psychological 0.8250 ahead of 0.8300.
On the other hand, if USD/CHF retreats to 0.8100, it opens the door for another lower leg. Below is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8091, followed by the July 30 swing low of 0.8039. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 100-day SMA at 0.7990.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.94% | -0.37% | -0.36% | 0.70% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.16% | -0.97% | -0.41% | -0.39% | 0.65% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | -0.16% | -1.11% | -0.57% | -0.56% | 0.44% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.94% | 0.97% | 1.11% | 0.56% | 0.57% | 1.63% | 1.08% | |
| CAD | 0.37% | 0.41% | 0.57% | -0.56% | 0.01% | 1.06% | 0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.39% | 0.56% | -0.57% | -0.01% | 1.02% | 0.53% | |
| NZD | -0.70% | -0.65% | -0.44% | -1.63% | -1.06% | -1.02% | -0.54% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -1.08% | -0.53% | -0.53% | 0.54% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold rises as a softer US Dollar offsets firm Treasury yields.
- Yen intervention speculation pressures the Greenback despite resilient yields.
- Iran strike threats keep Oil around $90, sustaining inflation risks.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Wednesday as the Greenback softens amid speculation of an intervention to bolster the Japanese Yen (JPY), while US Treasury yields hold firm after weak US jobs data. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,373.
The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board, raising speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened in the FX market or conducted a rate check. However, no official confirmation of either action was made.
XAU/USD climbs as softer Dollar offsets firm yields and Iran risks
The yellow metal remains bid as the US 10-year Treasury yield stays near Tuesday’s closing price of 4.79%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is at 99.59, down 0.06%.
Recently, US President Donald Trump said that the US is “prepared to do another attack on Iran,” adding that the campaign “won’t continue for too long.“ Following the remarks, Oil prices resumed their uptrend, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 0.10% at $90.86.
Despite this, US yields barely blinked as higher energy prices implied higher interest rates needed to tackle stubbornly sticky inflation in the US.
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book was just released; in it, the US central bank stated that economic activity increased modestly since early July, while overall employment rose slightly. Regarding inflation, prices rose in eight districts.
US data showed that private-sector hiring in August was weaker than expected, at 38K, compared with the forecast of 47K and down from 46K in July, according to the ADP Employment Change National report.
New York Fed President John Williams said that US bond yields aren’t driven by inflation expectations but rather reflect a solid economy. Williams stated that inflation is not out of control and that current monetary policy is in the right place to achieve price stability toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of jobs data, the ISM Services PMI for August, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reclaims 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,400
Gold price reclaimed $4,300, clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,361 at the time of writing. Despite this, which could open the door to further gains, short-term momentum remains bearish.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its 50-neutral level, indicating that sellers are in control, meaning that bullion’s path of least resistance is downwards.
For a bearish continuation, XAU/USD first support is $4,300. Once cleared, a move towards the 50-day SMA at $4,223 is on the cards. On further weakness, the $4,200 emerges as the next area of interest.
On the upside, if XAU/USD rallies past $4,400, this paves the way to challenge the $4,450 ahead of the $4,500 mark. A decisive breakout exposes the 200-day SMA at $4,531 ahead of $4,600.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Commerzbank highlights that South Korea’s export boom and a large trade surplus, combined with a hawkish Bank of Korea, are supportive for the Korean Won. They argue that changing FX flow dynamics should allow more of the surplus to translate into KRW strength. After a sharp USD/KRW drop from 1,550, they now expect more gradual appreciation within a defined range.
Export surplus underpins Won outlook
"South Korea's exports surged 68.7% yoy in August (consensus: 62.6%), picking up from an already firm 63.0% in July and extending the expansion to a 15th consecutive month. The strength remained overwhelmingly technology-led, semiconductor exports jumped 209% yoy to USD46.7bn and computer exports rose 420%."
"The data reinforce the picture of an exceptionally strong semiconductor-driven external cycle and support the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) recent upgrade to its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6% previously in August."
"Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.1% yoy (consensus: 3.2%) from 2.8% in July. The increase was widely anticipated in part because of base effects from last year's temporary reduction in telecom charges, so the below-consensus print is somewhat reassuring."
"After the sharp decline from around 1,550 at the start of July, we expect further KRW appreciation to be more gradual and look for USD/KRW to consolidate between 1,360–1,400 in the near term."
"For KRW, there are supportive factors, including exceptionally strong exports, a very large trade surplus, and a hawkish BoK. The August trade surplus of almost USD35bn further strengthens Korea's external position. Importantly, recent changes in FX flows, including corporate repatriation and increased National Pension Service (NPS) hedging, mean more of this external surplus can translate into KRW strength than before."
"After the back-to-back 25bp rate hikes in July and August, BoK is expected to stay on hold in October. BoK is forecasting headline CPI at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, with core inflation at 2.5% in both years."
"However, it is unlikely to alter BoK’s tightening tone, given that inflation is still well above BoK's 2% target, while export growth and overall activity remain exceptionally strong. Core inflation, which excludes agriculture products and oil, climbed to 3.1% vs 2.5% previously, partly on the low base."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the renewed campaign against Iran “won’t continue for too long," adding that he is prepared to launch another attack on Iran.
During remarks at the White House, he said that Iran was trying to build a rocket that drops sea mines and was trying to rebuild radar and missile systems.
Key highlights:
Renewed campaign against Iran won't continue for too long
Iran was trying to rebuild radar and missile systems
Iran was trying to build a rocket that drops mines; we took it out
Prepared to do another attack on Iran
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.22% | -0.79% | -0.42% | -0.33% | 0.83% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.15% | -0.85% | -0.47% | -0.38% | 0.75% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | -0.15% | -0.99% | -0.63% | -0.54% | 0.57% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.79% | 0.85% | 0.99% | 0.36% | 0.45% | 1.58% | 0.98% | |
| CAD | 0.42% | 0.47% | 0.63% | -0.36% | 0.09% | 1.22% | 0.62% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.38% | 0.54% | -0.45% | -0.09% | 1.13% | 0.53% | |
| NZD | -0.83% | -0.75% | -0.57% | -1.58% | -1.22% | -1.13% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | -0.20% | -0.14% | 0.01% | -0.98% | -0.62% | -0.53% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) released its Beige Book on Wednesday, in which the US central bank stated that economic activity increased modestly since early July, while overall employment rose slightly. Regarding inflation, prices rose in eight districts.
Input pressures were elevated in manufacturing and construction across multiple districts due to price increases in energy, raw materials, transportation, and petrochemicals.
Key highlights:
Employment rose very slightly overall, with three districts showing modest gains in employment, four reporting slight gains, and five districts experiencing no change.
Economic activity increased modestly since early July.
The general outlook for the coming months was positive, but sentiment was mixed across sectors, with contacts reporting heightened uncertainty surrounding the effects of higher energy prices, policy, and international conflict.
Prices increased moderately in eight districts, with two districts reporting modest increases, one slight increases, and one robust increases.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.19% | -0.81% | -0.41% | -0.36% | 0.79% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.83% | -0.45% | -0.38% | 0.72% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.99% | -0.60% | -0.54% | 0.55% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.81% | 0.83% | 0.99% | 0.40% | 0.46% | 1.57% | 0.99% | |
| CAD | 0.41% | 0.45% | 0.60% | -0.40% | 0.05% | 1.17% | 0.59% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.38% | 0.54% | -0.46% | -0.05% | 1.11% | 0.55% | |
| NZD | -0.79% | -0.72% | -0.55% | -1.57% | -1.17% | -1.11% | -0.57% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.99% | -0.59% | -0.55% | 0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- WTI Oil fluctuates near its highest level since July 24 as Middle East tensions keep supply concerns elevated.
- US crude stocks fall by 4.45 million barrels, exceeding market expectations.
- WTI holds above key moving averages, but the $90-$92 resistance zone caps immediate gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sees two-way price swings on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East keep energy markets volatile and the geopolitical risk premium elevated. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $89.70 per barrel after reaching an intraday high of $90.78, its highest level since July 24.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that two Oil tankers struck naval mines while attempting to transit the waterway. According to the IRGC, the vessels were disabled and their crews forced to disembark after they ignored warnings against taking what it described as an “illegal route.”
Oil prices also draw support from a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude stocks fell by 4.45 million barrels last week, well above expectations for a 1.1-million-barrel draw and reversing the previous week’s modest increase of 95,000 barrels.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that "further upside in Oil prices appears limited as Persian Gulf oil exports recover." They highlight Goldman Sachs estimates that oil flows from the region have "returned to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war level of 20 million barrel per day," a view they say is broadly consistent with the US Energy Secretary’s assessment that, on average, "8 million barrels a day are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while another 4 to 5 million barrels are bypassing it through pipelines." Together, these figures suggest that supply disruptions are easing even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
Looking ahead, traders await the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. The alliance is likely to leave its Oil production policy unchanged for October, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing three sources familiar with the matter.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, WTI Oil retains a constructive bias as it holds comfortably above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, the $90-$92 region forms a key resistance zone capping the immediate upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 64, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 16 suggests that the broader bullish trend lacks strength.
A sustained break above $92 could open the door toward $95, followed by the psychological $100 mark. On the downside, the 100-day SMA around $85 offers initial support. A decisive break below this level would expose the 200-day SMA near $77, while the horizontal floor around $67-$65 would come into focus only if the moving-average supports fail.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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