Forex News
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8109 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8175 and 6.7877 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara reiterated during a regularly scheduled press conference this Tuesday that officials he is always ready to take necessary action on forex. Kihara, however, refrained from commenting on specific forex level.
Market reaction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) moves little in reaction to fresh intervention warning, with the USD/JPY pair surging past the 162.00 mark for the first time since 1986 during the Asian session.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- WTI declines as conflicting reports over potential US-Iran peace talks cloud the Middle East outlook.
- Trump claimed US-Iran talks would occur Tuesday in Doha, but Tehran contradicted this, denying any scheduled meetings with Washington.
- Despite slowed traffic and damaged vessels after weekend clashes, tanker crews remain willing to transit the vital waterway.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gives up its recent gains, trading near $70.10 per barrel during Asian market hours on Tuesday. The pullback came as energy traders weighed a volatile mix of Middle East geopolitical signals and conflicting reports regarding potential US-Iran diplomacy.
According to CNBC, US President Donald Trump stated that the two nations were scheduled to hold fresh peace talks on Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, following a weekend of renewed hostilities. However, Tehran quickly contradicted the claim. Iranian officials stated that no meetings with Washington are scheduled at any level, emphasizing that Iran remains focused on implementing its existing memorandum of understanding rather than negotiating a final agreement.
Adding to the complexity, Tehran maintained its intention to oversee traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, even if Oman decides not to participate in the oversight. Under the current interim agreement, Iran has agreed not to impose transit fees for 60 days, though it has floated the possibility of introducing charges afterward. The proposal to charge transit fees faces firm opposition from the US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states.
While maritime shipping through the vital waterway slowed over the weekend after clashes damaged two vessels, tanker operators and crews have so far shown a continued willingness to transit the route.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY gains strong positive traction and reaches a four-decade high on Tuesday.
- The US-Japan rate differential continues to undermine the JPY and support the pair.
- Iran tensions and Fed hike bets revive the USD demand, further boosting spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair surges past the critical 162.00 psychological threshold, hitting a fresh four-decade high during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, expectations of a possible intervention by Japanese authorities cap further upside.
In fact, Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to take steps on currencies if necessary. Moreover, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said last week that officials will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. Traders also seem hesitant to place fresh bearish bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the wake of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish outlook.
In fact, the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's June meeting showed last week that policymakers debated mounting inflation risks, with some calling for faster rate increases to near levels deemed neutral to the economy. Furthermore, signs that inflation in Japan was now picking up endorse the BoJ’s policy tightening stance. However, borrowing costs in Japan remain lower than in the US, which keeps the so-called JPY carry trade in play.
Meanwhile, mixed signals on US-Iran talks and expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes help the US Dollar (USD) to stall its recent pullback from a 13-month high, which turns out to be another factor supporting the USD/JPY pair. US President Donald Trump said that Iran had requested a meeting with the US in Qatar. However, Iran said that no negotiation meetings are scheduled with the US at any level in the coming days.
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | -0.28% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.07% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | -0.09% | 0.48% | 0.37% | 0.48% | 0.25% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.28% | 0.09% | 0.60% | 0.46% | 0.57% | 0.34% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.48% | -0.60% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.55% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | -0.37% | -0.46% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.00% | -0.37% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.48% | -0.57% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.56% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.25% | -0.34% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.36% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 0.55% | 0.37% | 0.56% | 0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/USD loses ground to near 1.1415 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- ECB’s Lagarde said Europe is getting more resilient to economic shocks.
- Markets expect US rate hikes later this year.
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders reduce their bets on the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes this year.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech opening her institution’s annual retreat on Monday that Europe is becoming less vulnerable to outside shocks thanks to a better financial framework and progress on the green transition.
Lagarde emphasized that tensions subside amid a peace deal, which is “far from assured.” Policymakers must decide whether further monetary tightening is needed.
Markets have pared expectations for future ECB rate increases as energy prices retreat. Oxford Economics and Capital Economics expect the ECB won’t raise the interest rates further, though investors are still pricing one more quarter-point move, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.50%.
On the other hand, the path for US interest rates has been repriced much higher. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 60% chance of an interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) by September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The US ADP employment data and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be the highlights later this week. These reports could offer some hints about the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Any signs of a robust US labor market could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Forex Market News
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