Forex News
- GBP/USD trades near 1.3530 after the 50-day EMA just under 1.3500 held again.
- BoE chief economist calls for a prompt move to 4%, a view outvoted 6-3 in July.
- Friday: BoE Governor at 08:50 GMT, US payrolls at 12:30 GMT, 56K consensus.
Sterling (GBP) has spent Thursday recovering a little of what it lost this week, with GBP/USD trading near 1.3530, roughly a third of a percent higher, after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just under 1.3500 held for a second consecutive session. Thursday's low landed on the average almost to the pip before the pair climbed to a session high a couple of pips short of 1.3550 in the London afternoon. The bounce is a relief rally until a daily close above 1.3550 says otherwise.
Forty pips for the minority view
The sharper of the day's two legs was British, which has been rare this week. The Bank of England's chief economist released the text of an Edinburgh speech at 15:00 GMT arguing that Bank Rate should rise promptly from 3.75% to 4%, that he is uncomfortable with the wait-and-see stance of the majority, and that an early move need not open a prolonged series of increases. GBP/USD jumped from the 1.3500 area to its session high within the hour, roughly forty pips for a position that has already been outvoted.
That vote was 6-3 in July, the third consecutive meeting at which the hike camp lost, and the Governor spent last Friday at Jackson Hole explaining that second-round effects remain subdued and that the committee can afford to watch for now. July's headline inflation rate of 2.9% sits above target and the Bank's own central projection has it peaking near 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which is the material the dissenters are working with. The market has heard the same case at every meeting since April without it moving the majority, and it paid for it again on Thursday anyway.
The Dollar leg was borrowed
The earlier leg belonged to the Dollar and had nothing to do with Britain. A Fed governor said at 12:30 GMT that he would be inclined to support holding rates at the September 15-16 meeting if the inflation data due over the next two weeks keep behaving, and September hike odds on the FedWatch tool dropped to around 50% from above 60% on Wednesday. The Yen's surge to a one-month high on Bank of Japan hike expectations had already pushed Treasury yields lower before he spoke, and the Dollar Index slipped beneath 99.00 to its weakest since late August.
The awkward detail is what happened at 14:00 GMT in between. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) beat at 55.4 against a 54.3 consensus, with the prices paid index climbing to 72.6 from 70.3, and the Dollar did not recover a pip on it. A Dollar that ignores a hot services prices reading two weeks before a coin-toss Fed meeting is a Dollar being sold on positioning, and positioning reverses faster than policy does.
The Governor speaks before the payrolls do
Friday belongs to two central bankers who speak four hours apart, and the British one goes first. The Governor delivers a keynote in London at 08:50 GMT, and if he repeats the Jackson Hole line that the committee is not pre-committed and can watch for now, Thursday's forty pips are exposed before New York is at its desk. The September 17 decision arrives one day after the August inflation figures on September 16, so Friday's speech is the last unscripted word from the majority before the data that will decide the vote.
US nonfarm payrolls at 12:30 GMT carry a 56K consensus after 23K jobs were lost in July, with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.1% and average hourly earnings expected at 0.3% on the month and 3% YoY, down from 3.2%. The Fed Chair has said the committee's predominant focus is prices, which makes the report asymmetric for the pair: a soft number does not deliver the cut that would justify a weaker Dollar, while a firm one puts the September hike straight back into pricing. Next week is where the hold actually gets decided, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11, the two prints the governor's conditional was written around.
The British calendar offers almost nothing to counter it. Retail sales from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) land at 23:01 GMT on Monday, and Friday, September 11 brings July Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 06:00 GMT after a 0.3% rise in June, alongside industrial and manufacturing production after falls of 0.2% and 0.5%, with the Bank's consumer inflation expectations survey at 08:30 GMT after a 4% reading. None of it changes the September vote. What changes the vote is the August inflation print at 06:00 GMT on September 16, and the Fed announces its own decision that same evening.
Levels and bias
Resistance: The 1.3550 line is the one that matters, with Thursday's high failing just beneath it and a daily close above it the first thing that would turn the bounce into a trend change. Above that, 1.3600 is the level that went in the final days of August, and the peak short of 1.3700 caps the whole August range.
Support: The 50-day EMA just under 1.3500 has now absorbed two tests in two days, and it decides whether Thursday was a floor or a pause. Beneath it, the 200-day EMA near 1.3400 is the last technical object before open ground, with 1.3350 and 1.3300 below it and 1.3200 the objective on an extension.
Bias: Bearish while 1.3550 caps. Thursday was a Dollar-selling day with a British garnish, the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is still falling from above 90 and sits near 58, and the two events that could extend the bounce, a Governor turning hawkish and American inflation cooling, are both the minority outcome. Rallies into 1.3550 are for selling. A daily close above it invalidates the call and reopens 1.3600.
GBP/USD 5-minute chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- DJIA closed just under 53,700, up roughly 620 points, its best day since August 4.
- Vice President Vance asked for cuts as the 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.71%.
- Payrolls at 12:30 GMT Friday: 56K consensus after 23K jobs lost in July.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed just under 53,700 on Thursday, up roughly 620 points and close to 1.2%, its strongest session since August 4, after a Federal Reserve (Fed) governor said he would be inclined to support holding rates at the September 15-16 meeting if the next two weeks of inflation data behave. The index printed its low just above 53,000 at 10:30 GMT, added the bulk of the gain between 12:30 GMT and 15:30 GMT, and spent the final four hours in a 100-point band beneath a high a shade above 53,750. September hike odds on the FedWatch tool ended the day at 50.4%, down from 63.2% on Wednesday, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.77% after touching its highest level since late 2023 a day earlier.
It rallied through an Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) that beat at 55.4 against a 54.3 consensus and carried a prices paid reading of 72.6, up from 70.3. That is not the kind of number a hold is built on, and the index added roughly 300 points after it printed.
A hold that pleases neither camp
Thursday also produced the clearest statement yet of what the White House wants from the committee, and it is not a hold. Vice President JD Vance told a press briefing that the Fed should be lowering rates because President Trump wants Americans to be able to afford a home, and asked for some help from the central bank, hours after the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.71%, its highest since July 2025. The request landed less than a week after the Fed Chair told Jackson Hole that prices are the committee's predominant focus.
The committee's own hawks are pulling the other way. The July vote was 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favour of a hike, one of them on record that a single quarter-point move would not do much, and a second governor said this week he would support tightening if inflation fails to ease. The equity market's bet is the outcome in the middle, which neither the administration nor the dissenters are arguing for, and 620 points is a lot to have paid for a compromise whose loudest backer attached a condition to it.
Why Friday can only take points away
The problem with a rally built on a hold is that the report due at 12:30 GMT on Friday cannot deliver one. Nonfarm payrolls carry a 56K consensus after 23K jobs were lost in July, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.1% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% on the month and 3% YoY, down from 3.2%. A Fed Chair who has said prices come first is not going to base a hold on weak hiring, so a soft print buys equities nothing on the rate side, and a second poor month in a row turns the labour market from a rates story into an earnings story.
A strong print is worse. It confirms the case the three dissenters made in July, puts the September hike back above 60% where it sat on Wednesday morning, and sends the 10-year back above 4.80%, with WTI Crude Oil just above $91.00 and Brent near $95.50 after the heaviest exchange of fire between American and Iranian forces in more than a month. The data the hold actually depends on do not arrive until next week, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11, so Thursday's gain has to survive a report that can hurt it and cannot help it before the numbers that could vindicate it are printed.
Payrolls first, then the prints that decide the meeting
Friday's report is the only red-band release before the weekend, and its subcomponents carry as much weight as the headline, with the U6 underemployment rate after 7.9% and participation after 61.4% arriving at 12:30 GMT alongside the main number. Next week opens quietly with the four-week average of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment change on Tuesday at 12:15 GMT after an 11.75K prior reading.
Thursday, September 10 brings PPI at 12:30 GMT, with the headline seen at 0.3% on the month after a flat July and the core measure at 0.3% after 0.2%, against annual rates of 4.7% and 4.2%, alongside claims after a 206K print and existing home sales. Friday, September 11 delivers CPI at 12:30 GMT after 0.1% on the month and 3.4% YoY in July with core at 2.5% YoY, followed by the preliminary Michigan sentiment index at 14:00 GMT after 51.7 and the one-year inflation expectations gauge after 4%. Every one of those prints lands before the September 15-16 meeting, and the governor who leaned toward a hold made his lean conditional on them.
Levels and bias
Upside: 53,800 is the first hurdle, with Thursday's high stopping just above 53,750 and the index unable to hold above 53,700 into the close. A daily close above 53,800 opens 54,000, and beyond it only the record high just under 54,750 from early August is left.
Downside: 53,500 is the shelf Thursday cleared and the level that decides whether the day was a breakout or a squeeze, and a daily close back beneath it hands the gain back to the range. Beneath it sit 53,250 and then 53,000, with Thursday's low just above the latter, and the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 52,800 remains the line under the whole August advance. The 200-day EMA just above 50,000 is not in play.
Bias: Bullish while 53,500 holds, with 53,800 and 54,000 the objectives. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 36 is turning up from the lower third of its range, and the five-minute reading worked off an overbought print without the index giving back more than 100 points, which is what a session that intends to continue looks like. Friday is the risk rather than the trend: a strong payrolls print tests 53,500 before the European close, and a daily close beneath it reopens 53,250 and the 50-day EMA.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Futures FAQs
The futures market is an exchange-based auction in which participants buy and sell contracts of an underlying asset at a predetermined future date and price. The set price is agreed upon today and is derived from the underlying asset. Futures contracts can be based on a wide range of assets, with commodities among the most popular, although currencies and indices are other common underlying assets. Futures prices depend on their underlying asset and act as a mechanism for firms, institutions, and large-position traders to manage risks through hedging.
Futures can be traded in different ways. The most common ways are via a regulated exchange or via Contracts For Difference (CFDs). In the former, liquidity is high and pricing is more transparent, with the broker serving only as an intermediary between you and the market. Still, it generally requires more capital. The largest futures exchanges are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME). As for CFDs, these require less capital and thus trading is more flexible, but at the cost of less transparency.
The E-mini S&P 500 index, Crude Oil (Brent, WTI), Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Copper, and soft commodities such as grains are among the most actively traded contracts. These offer strong liquidity and are closely followed by traders worldwide. Futures market volume consistently exceeds spot market volume, often significantly. This dominance is driven by leverage, hedging, and higher liquidity on exchanges.
Yes. Future gauges, particularly equity index futures such as those of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, are widely considered key gauges of market sentiment because they reflect investors’ expectations for the next session’s opening price. When equity futures drop, it is a sign of risk-aversion, signaling bearish market sentiment. On the contrary, rising equity futures suggest markets are risk on.
As a futures contract approaches its maturity date, the futures price converges upon the spot price, becoming almost identical at expiration. However, prices can diverge significantly before the contract ends. A market is in contango when future prices are higher than spot prices, while the mirror image is called backwardation (when current prices are higher than future prices). For commodities, the normal state of the market is contango because holding the asset over time incurs costs such as storage or insurance fees. When markets turn from contango to backwardation – or vice versa – it signals a shift in the trend: a change from contango to backwardation is taken as a bullish sign, while going from backwardation to contango is generally considered bearish.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan argues that while the pace of Rupiah depreciation may slow, the broader weakening trend is set to continue. USD/IDR has pulled back as crowded long positions unwind and some foreign inflows return, but elevated US yields and high Oil prices remain headwinds. MUFG maintains its USD/IDR forecast at 18,350 by end-2026.
Rupiah under pressure from oil shock
"The pace of rupiah depreciation might moderate, but the broader depreciation trend is unlikely to be over. USDIDR has retraced nearly 500 points from its peak as crowded long USD/IDR positioning unwinds and some foreign inflows return. However, headwinds from elevated US yields and higher oil prices remain in place. We maintain our forecast for USDIDR at 18,350 by end-2026."
"Indonesia's trade balance remains under pressure. While the goods trade balance returned to a modest surplus in July after deficits in the prior two months, it remains well below the monthly average surplus recorded in 2025. Surpluses in coal, palm oil, and base metals are only partially offsetting the oil shock impact. Our estimates suggest Indonesia's commodity trade balance is negatively impacted once Brent rises above US$82/bbl. With Brent currently above US$90/bbl, trade-balance pressures are likely to persist, limiting the scope for sustained rupiah appreciation."
"The stronger support for IDR in the near term is portfolio inflows, but this buffer may be approaching maturity. Foreign ownership of SRBI has risen back to around 27%, close to late-2024 highs, while SRBI yields have started to moderate from their June peak. BI's strategy of raising the return on portfolio capital has been effective in stabilising USD/IDR, but its ability to drive further sustained rupiah gains may be diminishing amidst rising US yields and oil prices."
"Several macro and market risks continue to argue against a structurally bullish rupiah view. MSCI's removal of GoTo from the Indonesia index highlights ongoing concerns around market accessibility and liquidity, while uncertainty remains over the future direction of state-led commodity export reforms under Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI). At the same time, headline inflation has accelerated to 3.19%yoy and core inflation continues to trend higher, raising the possibility of further BI rate hikes if energy and food price pressures persist."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Geoff Yu notes that Bank Negara Malaysia kept its policy rate at 2.75%, judging the stance consistent with price stability and sustainable growth. The bank sees Malaysia’s economy on track for around 5% growth this year, with low inflation and limited external cost pass-through. However, it highlights Middle East tensions, elevated commodity prices and tighter global financial conditions as risks to the broader growth and inflation outlook.
BNM holds rates, monitors risks
"Bank Negara Malaysia has kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, judging the current stance to be consistent with continued price stability and sustainable growth."
"It said Malaysia’s economy expanded by 5.7% in H1 and is on track to grow around 5% this year, supported by stronger exports, resilient domestic demand, technology-related trade, tourism and investment."
"Headline and core inflation averaged 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively, in the first seven months, with limited pass-through from higher external costs."
"However, the MPC warned that Middle East tensions, elevated commodity prices and tighter global financial conditions remain key risks."
"Policy therefore remains on hold, with officials closely monitoring inflation pressures and domestic demand."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD jumps as Waller comments drag USD and yields lower.
- RSI rebound from neutral signals short-term bullish momentum returning.
- Break above $67.66 exposes $71.12 and 200-day SMA.
Silver (XAG/USD) price advances by some 2.45% on Thursday, boosted by dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, which pushed the US Dollar and US Treasury yields lower. The XAG/USD pair trades at $66.90 after reaching a high of $67.48.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal is neutral to downward biased. After hitting an all-time high of $121.66 in late January, Silver price respects the market structure of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control.
Momentum shifted in favor of bulls in the short term as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped to its 50-neutral level before bouncing higher. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upwards.
To resume the uptrend, Silver must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.66. A breach of the latter will expose the August 28 swing high of $71.12, followed by the 200-day SMA at $72.78. If those two levels are taken out, buyers could challenge the May 25 high at $78.83, ahead of $80.00.
On the other hand, if XAG/USD struggles to break above the 100-day SMA, sellers could drive prices towards the September 2 swing low of $63.32. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 61.85, before the precious metal registers a leg lower towards $60.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Commerzbank’s Singapore-based team highlights robust Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs, supported by an AI-driven semiconductor cycle, alongside upgraded MAS Survey GDP and export forecasts. With 2026 inflation expectations revised lower and MAS seen possibly steepening the SGD NEER slope in October, professional forecasters raised their median end-2026 USD/SGD forecast, while Commerzbank looks for near-term consolidation in a defined range.
AI cycle supports Singapore Dollar
"Singapore's manufacturing sector strengthened further in August, with the PMI edging up to 51.5 from 51.4 in July, marking the 13th consecutive month of expansion. Encouragingly, new orders rose to 52.0 from 51.9 previously, new export orders were also slightly firmer at 51.7 from 51.6 previously, and employment picked up to 51.2 from 51.1 previously. "
"The electronics PMI was even firmer at 52.6 from 52.4 previously, its 15th straight month above 50, supported by the AI-driven semiconductor cycle. Electronics new orders were firmer at 53.3 from 53.1 previously, while electronics new export orders were also firmer at 52.8 from 52.6 previously."
"Overall, the data point to continued strength in electronics output in the coming months. However, supply-chain disruptions remain evident, with supplier deliveries deteriorating further and input prices rising."
"The latest MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters for September reinforces the strong-growth picture. The median 2026 GDP growth forecast was raised sharply to 5.0% from 3.5% in June, close to the upper end of the government's 4.5-5.5% range. Manufacturing growth was upgraded to 8.4% from 5.0%, while the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) forecast was revised up sharply to 17.0% from 6.1% previously."
"The 2026 headline inflation forecast was cut to 2.1% from 2.3% and core inflation to 1.9% from 2.0%. MAS is projecting headline and core inflation at 1.5-2.5% this year. On monetary policy, 45% of respondents expect MAS to steepen the SGD NEER slope again in October, up from 30% in June, while 55% expect no change."
"For USD/SGD, the combination of stronger growth but contained inflation is modestly supportive of SGD."
"We look for consolidation between 1.2650-1.2800 in the near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to tight ranges in different time frames. For the next 24 hours, they expect the Dollar to trade between 6.7130 and 6.7230. Over 1–3 weeks, they see USD/CNH edging lower within 6.7050–6.7300, while a 1–3 month recovery needs a break above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar seen confined to tight ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected USD to “range-trade between 6.7180 and 6.7270.” USD then rose to 6.7266, dropped to 6.7162 before closing largely unchanged at 6.7178 (-0.07%). While there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 6.7130/6.7230 rather than a sustained decline."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We continue to hold the same view as two days ago (01 Sep, spot at 6.7180). As highlighted, the increase in downward momentum earlier this week “is insufficient to indicate a continued decline.” We also highlighted that USD “could edge lower within a 6.7050/6.7300 range.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF drops below the 50-day SMA as the Greenback's weakness deepens.
- Bearish RSI signals sellers are in control of short-term price action.
- Recovery above 0.8100 exposes 0.8156 and 0.8200 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair tumbles nearly 0.80% on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on rumors of a potential intervention in the FX markets to boost the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair fell from around daily highs of 0.8131, extending its losses to the current exchange rate near 0.8065.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
USD/CHF tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8090, but so far is retaining its upward bias, as the pair is above a previously broken resistance trendline that has turned into support. Also, the 100- and 200-day SMAs remain below the current exchange rate, meaning that in the medium and long term, the overall trend remains up.
Nevertheless, momentum shifted in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, an indication that sellers are in charge. Hence, in the short term, further downside is expected unless buyers reclaim key technical resistance areas.
On the downside, the first support for USD/CHF is the July 30 low of 0.8039. Below lies 0.8000, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7992 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934.
On the other hand, if USD/CHF reclaims 0.8100, the next resistance is the September 2 high at 0.8156, before traders test 0.8200.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.39% | -1.99% | -0.40% | -0.51% | -0.53% | -0.75% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | -0.00% | -1.63% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.20% | -0.37% | |
| GBP | 0.39% | 0.00% | -1.62% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 1.99% | 1.63% | 1.62% | 1.62% | 1.52% | 1.45% | 1.27% | |
| CAD | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.05% | -1.62% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.11% | -1.52% | 0.11% | -0.06% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.20% | 0.18% | -1.45% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.75% | 0.37% | 0.37% | -1.27% | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- The US Dollar slides below 99.00 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in more than a week.
- A pullback in Treasury yields and Waller’s less-hawkish remarks weigh on the Greenback.
- Friday’s NFP report could decide whether the Dollar rebounds or extends its decline.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slides below 99.00 to its lowest level in over a week on Thursday. At the time of writing, DXY trades around 98.90, down 0.67% on the day, after reaching 99.86 on Wednesday.
A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) leads the Greenback’s decline. USD/JPY falls for the second consecutive day, down around 2% at the time of writing and trading near 155.45, its lowest level in a month and close to the post-July coordinated intervention low of 155.24. The Yen’s quick move has sparked fresh intervention speculation, including talk of a possible rate check, but there has been no confirmation from Japanese authorities.
A modest pullback in US Treasury yields also weighs on the US Dollar. Yields retreat across the curve from recent highs, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading around 4.75% after touching 4.81% on Wednesday, its highest level since October 2023.
Selling pressure on the Greenback gathered pace following less-hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, prompting traders to scale back bets on a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Waller said he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” adding: “Give disinflation a chance; we can wait one meeting.” However, he warned that if the trend reverses in August, he would be “willing to pull the trigger on a rate hike.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has fallen to around 50% from 63% a day earlier.
Traders largely shrug off Thursday’s US economic data. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 206K, slightly above expectations of 205K, while the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in July, beating the market forecast of 54.3.
The US Dollar now faces a crucial test from Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report
The US economy is expected to add 58K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. Markets will also closely examine wage growth and revisions to previous payroll figures after employment gains for May and June were revised down by a combined 103K in the July report.
A stronger-than-expected report could revive expectations of a September rate hike and help the US Dollar regain ground. Conversely, another weak payroll print or sharp downward revisions would strengthen the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, leaving DXY vulnerable to a deeper decline.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- Gold rallies above $4,480 as Waller tempers Fed hike bets.
- ISM Services strength contrasts with softer low-firing labor backdrop.
- NFP and Hammack speech could reset September rate expectations.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies more than 2% on Thursday following dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who advocated holding rates steady if inflation data shows the disinflation process continues. At the same time, US data was mixed, with jobless claims remaining at familiar levels while business activity improved. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,487.
XAU/USD jumps as Waller’s neutral tilt offsets firm services activity
Fed Governor Christopher Waller shifted to a more neutral stance, as he has been vocal about stubbornly high inflation. On Thursday, he said that if inflation cools, he will support keeping rates unchanged. However, he didn’t close the door on a hike if prices come hotter than foreseen.
In the meantime, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has weighed on the US Dollar, which has been pressured since Wednesday amid speculation of an intervention to boost the Japanese Yen.
The release of US jobs data on Thursday showed that the labor market is in a low-firing, low-hiring environment. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 29 rose from 204K to 206K, a tick above the 205K projected by Wall Street’s economists.
The ISM Services PMI indicated business activity in the services sector is solid, though input costs remain high. The index rose to 55.4 from 54.1, exceeding estimates of 54.3. The Prices Paid sub-component jumped from 70.3 to 72.6, the highest since August 2022.
Given the backdrop, but mostly influenced by Waller’s comments, money markets priced in a lower chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting. The odds stand at 54%, while for holding rates near 46%, according to Prime Terminal.
Ahead, traders eye speeches by Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack and also Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for August, which are expected to improve from a -23K contraction to 56K, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.1%, unchanged, compared to the previous print.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reclaims $4,400, buyers target 200-day SMA
Gold price shifted gears and climbed above the September 1 high of $4,461, further accelerating toward $4,500 as traders stepped in amid broad US Dollar weakness.
Momentum has shifted to moderately bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI signals that buyers are gaining strength, an indication that bullion prices might continue to trend higher.
If XAU/USD clears $4,500, the next resistance would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4.533. Once surpassed, the next stop is the $4,600 milestone, with the next area to watch being the August monthly high of $4,697.
Downwards, Gold’s first support is the $4,400 mark. Below that is the 100-day SMA at $4,358. On further weakness, the next floor level is $4,300, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,232.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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