Forex News
- USD/CHF rises as strong US data and high oil prices fuel hawkish Fed signals, pushing October rate hike odds to 67.5%.
- The Swiss National Bank held rates at 0% in September, citing Middle East uncertainty and high oil prices.
- Swiss National Bank weighed potential foreign-exchange market interventions.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around nearly 16-month highs of 0.8296 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, driven primarily by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials.
Elevated oil prices and robust US economic data have stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed may tighten its monetary policy even further. Reflecting this shift, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the likelihood of an October benchmark rate hike has jumped to nearly 67.5%, marking a significant increase from 55.4% a week prior and just 11% a month ago.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has weakened following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) latest monetary policy decision. In contrast to other central banks, the SNB opted to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0% during its September meeting. The central bank cited elevated uncertainty in the Middle East, which continues to keep global oil prices high, as a primary factor in its decision to pause.
Despite this holding pattern, Swiss economic growth has remained resilient, largely supported by the weaker franc, while medium-term inflationary pressures have increased only slightly. SNB policymakers also reiterated their willingness to utilize foreign-exchange market interventions, though uncertainty remains in the market regarding whether their future actions will aim to weaken or support the currency.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- NZD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day amid a bullish USD.
- Rising Fed hike bets, elevated bond yields and geopolitical risks continue to benefit the buck.
- The RBNZ’s dovish outlook backs the case for an extension of the pair’s one-month-old slide.
The NZD/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day, flirting with its lowest level since late June, around mid-0.5600s during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register losses for the fifth straight week and seem vulnerable amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
In fact, the USD Index (DXY) shot to a nearly two-month high on Thursday amid rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and surging US bond yields. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an over 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in October following the widely expected 25 basis points (bps) hike earlier this month. The expectations were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments from several Fed officials.
Adding to this, inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices underpin prospects for further Fed tightening and lift the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury to a fresh high since July 2007. Moreover, the uncertainty over how and when the US-Iran conflict could end keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and suggests that the path of least resistance for the safe-haven Greenback remains to the upside. This validates the near-term negative outlook for the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the US-China trade truce would be extended until January 10. This, however, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish outlook backs the case for an extension of an over one-month-old downtrend. Traders now look to US macro data and Fed speeches for some impetus later during the North American session.
NZD/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The NZD/USD pair seem poised to extend its downtrend towards the year-to-date low, around 0.5625, touched in June. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for further losses.
On the topside, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 0.5700 mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged ahead of mid-0.5700s, which, if cleared, should set the stage for some meaningful recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.65% | 3.27% | -0.65% | 2.28% | 2.10% | 5.61% | 3.43% | |
| EUR | -2.65% | 0.53% | -3.24% | -0.40% | -0.60% | 2.76% | 0.77% | |
| GBP | -3.27% | -0.53% | -3.83% | -0.99% | -1.08% | 2.23% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.65% | 3.24% | 3.83% | 2.97% | 2.79% | 6.20% | 4.17% | |
| CAD | -2.28% | 0.40% | 0.99% | -2.97% | -0.15% | 3.07% | 1.14% | |
| AUD | -2.10% | 0.60% | 1.08% | -2.79% | 0.15% | 3.33% | 1.33% | |
| NZD | -5.61% | -2.76% | -2.23% | -6.20% | -3.07% | -3.33% | -1.95% | |
| CHF | -3.43% | -0.77% | -0.17% | -4.17% | -1.14% | -1.33% | 1.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD softens to near 1.3210 in Friday’s early European session.
- The pair retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA amid an oversold RSI condition.
- The immediate resistance level is located at 1.3215; the initial support level to watch is 1.3140.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3210 during the early European session on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid growing domestic fiscal concerns ahead of the upcoming UK budget.
The UK Office for National Statistics showed earlier this week that UK public sector borrowing hit £18.27 billion in August, exceeding the market forecast of £15.35 billion a year prior and £2.04 billion in July. The August reading was higher than expected. The cumulative deficit from April to August reaches £77.3 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's projection by £8.1 billion.
UK Chancellor John Healey will face pressure to raise taxes or cut spending at next month’s budget, as soaring borrowing costs because of the Iran war and weaker growth have wiped nearly £12 billion off the UK government’s fiscal headroom.
Markets are pricing in a 67% odds of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November, with another increase expected in December, according to LSEG data.
Pound softens as BoE signals greater willingness to tighten on persistent energy pressures
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the Pound is trading weaker, with “the GBP is softer, in line with its core currency peers.” They add that policy messaging from the BoE remains a key driver, highlighting that BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli “will warn that tighter policy in increasingly likely if energy prices remain high, an advance copy of her comments to be delivered shortly indicate.” This combination of softer GBP price action and firmer BoE rhetoric underscores the market’s sensitivity to the path of energy costs and the central bank’s evolving reaction function.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keeps a bearish vibe amid oversold condition
In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds below the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bearish as price remains compressed under a dense cluster of overhead levels. The latest Bollinger lower band sits just above spot, underscoring that the recent slide is pressing against the lower volatility envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 24 signals oversold conditions that could slow immediate downside, rather than reverse it outright.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day Bollinger lower band near 1.3215, a minor pivot just above the current price. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the July 28 low of 1.3273, en route to the 100-day SMA at 1.3425 and the Bollinger middle band at 1.3438 form a broader cap. The Bollinger upper band at 1.3660 marks a more distant barrier.
On the other hand, the June 24 low of 1.3140 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. Any follow-though selling below this level could pave the way to the November 21, 2025 low of 1.3038, followed by the November 5, 2025 low of 1.3010.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,168.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,184.71 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 153,596.50 per tola from INR 153,783.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,168.65 |
10 Grams | 131,686.80 |
Tola | 153,596.50 |
Troy Ounce | 409,602.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- WTI attracts some sellers during the Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak.
- Easing supply concerns weigh on the commodity, though the downside seems limited.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – extends the previous day's late pullback from the $95.80 area and drifts lower through the Asian session on Friday. The black liquid, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak and currently trades just below the $92.00 mark, down 2.0% for the day.
Median reports suggested that US and Iran negotiators are exploring a phased path out of the conflict that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran. This, in turn, helps ease supply concerns and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on crude oil prices. That said, a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia keeps geopolitical risks elevated and could act as a tailwind for the commodity.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices maintain a constructive near-term tone above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) support on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September rally. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator turns positive with a rising histogram, suggesting improving bullish momentum even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 47.
Hence, any further slide is more likely to find decent support at the 200-period SMA, near $88.99, which is closely followed by the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $88.59. Deeper pullbacks could meet additional demand at the 50.0% level at $84.47 and progressively lower retracements toward $80.35, $74.48, and $67.01. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 23.6% Fibo. level at $93.68, where a clear break would open the way to further gains toward the recent cycle highs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/JPY declines to near 111.10 in Friday’s early European session.
- The negative outlook of the cross remains intact, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 111.70; the initial support level to watch is 110.00.
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 111.10 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
US President Donald Trump shared his concerns over the Yen’s weakness during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week in New York. Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that excessive currency moves harm the economy and intervention should be kept as an option to address such volatility.
After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the policy rate to 1.25% last week, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled he was open to further tightening, saying he wouldn’t rule out a back-to-back hike in October or a larger move at some point. However, the move was viewed as insufficiently hawkish, with two officials dissenting from the decision.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have surged to a 30-year high above 3%. Traders remain reluctant to commit heavily to domestic bonds while yields are still climbing and policymakers offer few clues about how much further rates must rise.
On the Aussie front, the market is widely expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week, and Thursday’s slight unemployment increase is unlikely to stay the RBA’s hand.
US pressure on BoJ and Japan’s defence pivot sharpen focus on Yen carry trade
Analysts at Rabobank highlight what they see as intensifying US strategic pressure on Japan’s monetary stance, pointing to “the US Treasury openly pushing the ‘independent’ BoJ to end the Yen Carry Trade via rate hikes, threatening a perfect storm for some assets, in exchange for a strong JPY, cheaper commodity imports, and more Japanese domestic investment into defence industries” as a key example of this shift. They add that the broader geopolitical backdrop is becoming more sensitive for Tokyo, noting that, as the Financial Times warns in a related context on middle powers, “The threat of appearing as a vassal state is growing ever more real for middle powers.”
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is closer to the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41.70 hints at soft but not extreme downside momentum, reinforcing the view that rallies remain capped by overhead levels rather than signaling a fresh bullish phase.
On the topside, initial resistance level aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 111.70, en route to the 100-day SMA at 112.80. A more distant barrier emerges at the Bollinger upper band near 114.18.
On the downside, the first meaningful support is defined by the 110.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could expose the September 14 low of 109.67, followed by the lower limit of Bollinger band at 109.20. Only a sustained break above the 100-day SMA would start to relieve the prevailing bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/JPY is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 42.47 indicates lingering downside pressure.
- A rebound above the nine-day EMA could trigger a bullish reversal toward the 50-day EMA at 182.31.
EUR/JPY has pared back its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 180.10 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross continues to trade within a descending channel pattern, pointing to a persistent bearish outlook.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price sits directly on the nine-day EMA, turning it into a short-term pivot, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.47 remains below the neutral 50 mark, which suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
The EUR/JPY cross is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 180.12. A successful break below the short-term price average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 177.00, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
On the upside, a rebound above the nine-day EMA could cause the bullish reversal and support the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 182.31. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.80, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.06% | -0.27% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.36% | -0.01% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.33% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.36% | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.26% | 0.45% | 0.44% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.37% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.26% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.45% | -0.08% | -0.18% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.44% | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The US Dollar trades higher against its peers as US Treasury Yields continue to soar.
- Higher energy prices and Fed’s higher for longer interest rates narrative are fuelling US bond yields.
- Fed’s Williams said that inflation is a big concern for the central bank.
The US Dollar continues to outperform its peers as United States (US) Treasury Yields keep rallying due to firm expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its eight-week high of 101.30 posted on Thursday. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury Yields are close to its 19-year high of 5.23% posted on Thursday.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an almost 58% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in both remaining policy meetings this year.
Higher-for-longer Fed expectations drive US yields above 5%
Analysts at ING highlight that US borrowing costs have climbed as markets respond to “elevated energy prices and a belief that the Federal Reserve is set to tighten policy and keep interest rates higher for longer.” They note that, against a backdrop of “substantial government fiscal deficits and anxiety about debt sustainability,” longer-dated US Treasury yields have “pushed above 5%.”
Latest remarks from Fed officials have signaled that they are highly concerned about high inflation and are gaining confident about an improvement in labor market conditions.
Williams flags resilience and inflation risks as Fed tone stays firmly hawkish
Fed’s Williams delivered a notably firm message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.2/10, above the 6.2/10 historical average, underscoring a more hawkish tone relative to the established baseline. Emphasis on “remarkable resilience” in the US economy, receding downside risks to maximum employment, strong AI-related demand, and the “reasonable” prospect of another rate hike by year-end all point to a Fed still focused on taming inflation, even as explicit forward guidance is dialed back and uncertainty over the persistence of higher yields is acknowledged. The combination of strong demand, inflation concerns, and openness to further tightening is supportive of the Dollar, while the shift away from rigid guidance injects more rate-path uncertainty into FX pricing.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.18 points to 148.63, a modest pullback that still leaves the gauge deep in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. Despite the slight decline, the elevated index level, in tandem with the stronger-than-average FXS Speechtracker score, confirms that Fed communication remains broadly supportive of the Dollar, even as markets reassess the durability of higher yields.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 101.29. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.11, reinforcing a constructive tone after the recent advance from sub-99.00 levels. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 73.05 has entered overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum is strong but vulnerable to a corrective pause or consolidation in the sessions ahead.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the current pivot area near 101.29, with stronger underlying demand emerging at the 20-day EMA around 100.11, where buyers could attempt to defend the broader recovery structure. Looking above, the ongoing rally in the DXY could find hurdle near the yearly high at 101.80
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Easing oil prices cushion Silver as US-Iran talks lower inflation fears, though easing supply concerns offset gains.
- A surging US Dollar and multi-year-high Treasury yields continue to cap non-yielding Silver’s upside potential.
- Fed rate hike expectations jump to 67.5% for October, raising the opportunity cost of holding metal assets.
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after two days of losses, trading around $63.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Non-yielding Silver is finding underlying support as inflation concerns ease following a pullback in crude oil prices. Energy markets turned lower amid reports that the United States and Iran are considering a phased agreement, mediated by Qatari officials on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, that could lift the US blockade on Iranian ports and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Despite this reprieve in energy costs, silver faces significant headwinds from a strengthening US Dollar and surging Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly pricing in further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to contain broader price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for an October benchmark interest rate hike have climbed to nearly 67.5%, up sharply from 55.4% a week ago and just 11% a month earlier.
This hawkish shift in monetary expectations has triggered a sharp sell-off in US government bonds. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a high of 5.501%—its highest mark since June 2004—while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.223%, touching a level not recorded since June 2007. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, capping its upside potential.
US yields climb as higher-for-longer Fed stance lifts borrowing costs
Economists at ING highlight that US borrowing costs have moved higher as markets respond to “elevated energy prices and a belief that the Federal Reserve is set to tighten policy and keep interest rates higher for longer.” They note that, against a backdrop of “substantial government fiscal deficits and anxiety about debt sustainability,” longer-dated US Treasury yields have “pushed above 5%,” reinforcing the upward pressure on financing costs across the economy. While “corporate bond spreads have tightened,” ING stresses this has not been sufficient “to prevent an overall rise in borrowing costs,” leaving companies and households facing a more challenging funding environment.
(The story was corrected on September 25 at 06.00 GMT to say in the title that the XAG/USD remains steady near $64.00, and not $94.00.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/JPY attracts some sellers as JPY bears turn cautious amid intervention fears.
- Iran diplomacy hopes prompt some USD profit-taking and also weigh on the pair.
- The fundamental backdrop backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying.
The USD/JPY pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move up to a three-week high, near the 159.00 mark, touched the previous day. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the second week in a row and currently trade just above mid-158.00s, down around 0.20% for the day.
Intervention risk re-emerged as a two-week-long slide drags the Japanese Yen (JPY) back toward the critical 160.00 psychological threshold against its American counterpart. Furthermore, the US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather following the recent strong move up to a nearly two-month high. This prompts bullish traders to take some profits off the table, exerting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, the USD pullback comes amid reports that the US and Iran were exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia keeps geopolitical risks elevated, fueling oil-driven inflation fears. This, along with the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, supporting the USD and the USD/JPY pair.
Moreover, the interest rate gap between the US and Japan remains wide, at roughly 250 to 275 basis points (bps). This should keep the so-called JPY carry trade in play, which should contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, any further slide is likely to be bought into and remain limited. Traders now look to the US macro data and Fed speeches for some impetus heading into the weekend.
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish near-term bias following the overnight breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. The latter is located at 158.45 and should offer immediate support, ahead of the 200-period SMA at 157.59.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 159.76, followed by the 78.6% retracement at 161.62, with the cycle high zone at 163.99 acting as a broader cap.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.30% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.32% | 0.01% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.00% | -0.31% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.34% | 0.27% | 0.34% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.34% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.27% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.34% | -0.00% | -0.08% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.34% | -0.00% | -0.07% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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