Forex News

DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chua Han Teng argue that recent commodity price shocks will inevitably lift inflation in Singapore, but highlight the role of the Singapore Dollar and policy buffers. They expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to allow further appreciation of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) to contain imported inflation, complementing targeted fiscal measures and ample reserves that support economic resilience.

MAS seen tightening SGD NEER stance

"Such shocks permeate through Singapore’s economy readily. Gasoline prices may get adjusted immediately, electricity and electronics prices may rise with some lag, but it is just a matter of when, not if; higher inflation in the near term appears to be unavoidable."

"Beyond targeted fiscal policy, Singapore’s unique exchange rate-based monetary policy will also likely play a crucial role in containing imported inflation and anchoring inflation expectations. We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to undertake a policy-induced appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate."

"Given such considerations, we find Singapore’s measured public sector response to the ongoing crisis to be in line with best practice. Preventing price signals to permeate through the economy by means of across-the-board subsidy and price controls is not advisable, as they prevent necessary economic adjustments and distort incentives."

"Instead, the authorities have highlighted that the nation has ample reserves to ensure unimpeded supply of energy domestically and sufficient financial buffers to procure what’s needed externally. Concurrently, they have cautioned about higher prices in the pipeline."

"Informing the public about the risks to the outlook, from higher inflation to lower growth, while assuring them about the wherewithal to deal with likely contingencies strike a balance between caution and resolve. Global shocks inevitably hit Singapore; there is not much one can do about that."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Here is what you need to know for Thursday, April 16:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggled to build on recent gains, trading near 98.10 on Tuesday in a tight range as mixed US data and conflicting signals from yields capped momentum. While safe-haven demand initially supported the US Dollar (USD), the move faded as US yields stabilized and investors showed reluctance to extend long USD positions without fresh catalysts.

EUR/USD trades in a neutral range near the 1.1800 area, benefiting from the USD’s lack of follow-through. The pair remains supported by stable Eurozone expectations, although upside is limited as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious tone amid inflation concerns.

GBP/USD holds steady around the 1.3570 price region, with the Pound finding some footing despite ongoing concerns about UK growth and inflation persistence. Bank of England (BoE) expectations remain finely balanced, preventing sharp moves in either direction.

USD/JPY trades in the green with a softer tone above the 159.00 mark as the Japanese Yen (JPY) draws intermittent support from safe-haven flows.

AUD/USD surges above the 0.7170 level as traders look ahead to Australia’s March employment report due Thursday. Expectations point to a 20K increase in jobs and a steady 4.3% Unemployment Rate.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains volatile, recovering almost all its intraday losses now trading near the $91.20 per barrel, as concerns over supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz persist.

Gold trades around the $4,795 after dropping below the $4,870 level, supported by geopolitical uncertainty but capped by stable yields.

What’s next in the docket:

Thursday, April 16:

• US IMF Meeting
• AU Employment Change March
• AU Unemployment Rate March
• CN GDP Q1
• CN Industrial Production March
• CN Retail Sales March
• UK GDP February
• UK Industrial Production February
• UK Manufacturing Production February
• Italian CPIs March
• Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
• US Industrial Production March

Friday, April 17:

• US IMF Meeting

• USD/JPY holds firm near 159.00, snapping a two-day losing streak despite broad USD weakness.
• Optimism around potential US-Iran talks is improving risk sentiment, reducing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
• Intervention fears near 160.00 cap upside, while elevated Oil prices continue to pressure the Japanese Yen.

USD/JPY holds firm on Wednesday despite a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). The pair remains confined within a one-month trading range, as elevated Oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, intervention risk near the 160.00 handle is keeping a lid on further upside.

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 159.10, up nearly 0.20% on the day, snapping a two-day losing streak.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Wednesday, “We will take bold actions on FX as needed,” after meeting US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Japanese Yen strengthened briefly following the remarks but quickly gave back gains, as geopolitical developments continue to dominate market sentiment.

On the geopolitical front, investors remain cautiously optimistic that tensions between the United States and Iran could de-escalate, with both sides signaling a willingness to resume talks. Reports suggest a possible second round of negotiations could take place later this week, supporting risk sentiment. This has weighed on the US Dollar and pushed Oil prices lower from recent highs.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.10, close to a six-week low touched on Tuesday.

Still, risks remain skewed to the upside, with the Pentagon reportedly considering deploying additional troops to the region to increase pressure on Iran.

At the same time, ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are limiting a deeper pullback in Crude prices, keeping inflation concerns in focus. While the recent dip in Oil has eased pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), it has also revived expectations that the US central bank could still consider rate cuts later this year.

In contrast, elevated Oil prices continue to complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. While they may keep the BoJ on a gradual tightening path, higher energy costs could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook, potentially slowing the pace of policy normalization.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan argues that KRW could outperform in a de-escalation scenario despite vulnerability to prolonged conflict and higher Oil prices. The bank expects the strong AI and technology cycle to continue supporting South Korea. A major shift in NPS FX hedging policy, moving a 15% cap to a baseline, is seen as structurally important for KRW over time.

KRW backed by tech and policy change

"In South Korea’s case, while it’s definitely hurt in a scenario of prolonged conflict and higher oil prices, our base case forecasts in a de-escalation scenario has KRW outperforming to some extent in part due to our expectation for the strong AI and tech cycle to continue notwithstanding risks from oil prices and energy supplies."

"Beyond the fundamentals, South Korea’s NPS is scrapping a long-standing 15% cap on forex hedging, aiming for greater flexibility during periods of market volatility, according to a statement released yesterday."

"This 15% level will instead serve as a baseline ratio, with FX hedging now viewed as a core policy in overseas investment rather than applied only in exceptional circumstances. This is a very key change in NPS FX strategy, and with implications not just for the near-term but also potentially over the medium-term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s March data showed a sharp divergence between exports and imports, narrowing the trade surplus to a 13‑month low. The report stresses that seasonal factors and last year’s high base weighed on exports, while higher energy and raw material prices boosted imports. UOB notes resilient technology exports and expects further upside pressure on import prices as geopolitical risks persist.

Trade surplus narrows as imports jump

"China’s exports slumped while imports surged in Mar. In USD-terms, exports slowed to 2.5% y/y (Bloomberg est: 8.6%, Feb: 39.6%) and imports surged 27.8% y/y (Bloomberg est: 13.9%, Feb: 13.8%). Consequently, the trade surplus narrowed sharply to US$51.13 bn from US$90.98 bn in Feb, the lowest in 13 months."

"On the import side, the sharp acceleration in Mar was partly driven by higher global energy and raw material prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. China’s imports of semiconductors and computers remained firm, alongside steady purchases of key commodities such as copper and iron. In volume terms, imports of coal and refined petroleum products increased compared with Mar last year, while crude oil and LPG imports declined, likely reflecting supply disruptions in the Middle East and a gradual shift toward alternative energy sources."

"With geopolitical risks persisting, import prices are expected to face further upside pressure in the coming months."

"Despite the softening of exports in Mar, overall trade performance in 1Q26 remained solid. Exports grew 14.7% y/y during the quarter, while imports rose even faster at 22.7% y/y. China recorded a cumulative trade surplus of US$264.33bn in 1Q26, slightly lower than US$271.09bn in 1Q25."

"Looking ahead, while it may still be premature to fully assess the impact of the Middle East conflict, a prolonged escalation is expected to weigh on global demand and pose risks to China’s export outlook."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING analysts Muhammet Mercan, Frantisek Taborsky and James Wilson note that the Turkish Lira (TRY) has stabilised after US-Iran tensions eased, with the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) maintaining market confidence and a steady USD/TRY path. They highlight reduced but now recovering TRY long positions, lower FX reserves, and project USD/TRY to move gradually toward 46.6 by mid‑2026 as carry trades resume.

Lira seen steady as carry returns

"Similar to the rest of the EM space, we have seen some relief in Turkey following signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. This suggests that the worst of the US-Iran conflict should be over, and the central bank has been relatively untroubled in maintaining market confidence and a stable USD/TRY trajectory. This has been helped by significant rhetorical activity from officials in recent weeks."

"The TRY market has navigated the US-Iran conflict by significantly reducing long positions, which have been cut approximately in half. Additionally, CBT FX reserves declined from a peak of US$210bn to about US$161bn, reflecting the broader sell-off in global gold markets. However, recent market data suggests a resumption of long positions in TRY, which is in line with improving global sentiment."

"Overall, we expect USD/TRY to remain on a stable trajectory up to 46.6 by mid-year and the market will gradually resume long carry trades in TRY."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Aussie holds steady as markets await Australia’s March employment report.
• USD lacks a clear direction amid mixed yields and the Middle East war.
• RBA outlook remains cautious, with labor data seen as key for policy expectations.

The AUD/USD surged near the 0.7160 price region on Wednesday, as investors positioned ahead of key Australian labor market data and continued to assess the broader US Dollar (USD) backdrop amid mixed United States (US) macro signals.

The Greenback has struggled to extend gains despite lingering safe-haven demand tied to Middle East tensions, with US yields stabilizing and limiting directional conviction. This has allowed the Australian Dollar (AUD) to hold firm.

Attention now shifts to Australia’s March employment report, due later today. Expectations point to a modest labor market expansion, with the economy projected to add around 20K jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, while the Participation Rate, at 66.9%, will also be closely watched for signs of labor market resilience.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the four-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7167, holding a bullish near-term bias as price consolidates above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7102 and the longer-term 100-period SMA at 0.6974. The cluster of nearby horizontal levels at 0.7159, 0.7139, and 0.7133 reinforces underlying demand, though the Relative Strength Index (14), hovering in overbought territory near 73, suggests upside momentum is stretched and vulnerable to a corrective pause.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 0.7169, where initial supply is capping further gains for now. On the downside, first support is at 0.7159, with additional layers of demand at 0.7139 and 0.7133; a deeper pullback would bring the 20-period SMA at 0.7102 into view, ahead of the more distant 100-period SMA support near 0.6974.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• WTI US Oil prices stabilize around $89 after briefly sliding to a three-week low near $85 earlier in the day.
• Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support Oil prices, with the US preparing to deploy additional troops to the region.
• However, renewed hopes for negotiations between Washington and Tehran are limiting further gains in Crude markets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $89.10 on Wednesday at the time of writing, remaining broadly stable on the day after earlier falling to a three-week low near $85. The Oil market is caught between escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed hopes for diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran.

On the geopolitical front, a report from The Washington Post indicates that the US administration is preparing to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days. The move is reportedly part of a broader Washington strategy to intensify pressure on Tehran and push Iran toward reaching an agreement with the US. Such developments are keeping risk premiums in the Oil market, as traders remain wary of potential disruptions to supply in the region.

However, optimism surrounding a possible diplomatic breakthrough is tempering bullish momentum in Crude Oil prices. Expectations for renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran have improved after US President Donald Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran could end soon. In an interview with ABC News, Trump said he does not see the need to extend the current two-week ceasefire, while expressing confidence that a positive announcement could emerge in the coming days. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead”, he said.

According to Iranian state media, a Pakistani delegation is currently heading to Tehran to deliver a message from Washington and outline plans for a second round of talks aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire. Reports indicate that another round of negotiations could take place as early as this week, before the current truce expires.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, market sentiment remains fragile. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to restrict maritime trade involving Iran, sustaining concerns about supply disruptions. A US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander stated that American forces have effectively halted maritime economic trade to and from Iran, while Iranian Revolutionary Guards warned they could retaliate by blocking imports and exports across the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the blockade persists.

Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the Oil market remains vulnerable to broader economic risks linked to the disruption of energy flows. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that even if the passage were reopened immediately, restoring normal Oil flows could take between 60 and 150 days.

Against this backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and fragile diplomacy, Crude prices remain sensitive to headlines from the Middle East, leaving WTI US Oil hovering around $89 as traders await clearer signals on whether tensions will escalate or negotiations will move forward.

• Hopes for extended US-Iran talks keep overall market sentiment supported.
• Fed officials signaled rates could stay unchanged for some time.
• BoE tightening bets continue to offer support to Sterling.

The GBP/USD pair halts its advance on Wednesday and remains steady around 1.3570 as optimism about a resumption of US-Iran talks has tempered. At the same time, US equities extended their gains, and the Greenback seems to have bottomed after hitting a six-week low.

Sterling steadies as Fed hold view offsets softer Dollar tone

Sentiment remains positive, a headwind for the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD). News that the US-Iran ceasefire could extend for another couple of weeks was cheered by Wall Street, while US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran is near the end, adding that “amazing two days” lie ahead, hinting that both parties could be close to an agreement.

The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is deploying additional troops to the Middle East. At the same time, the Pakistani military confirmed that Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to narrow the gaps between the two countries.

The US economic docket featured Import and Export prices, with both figures being ignored by market participants. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continued to grab the headlines as Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack commented that rates will likely remain on hold “for a good while.” She sees no imminent need for the Fed to change its interest rate setting.

Even though the Fed is expected to hold rates, across the pond, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to tighten policy by 38 basis points towards the end of the year. This favors further upside for GBP/USD, as the rate differential would be higher in the UK.

BoE hawkish bets had grown amid the UK’s reliance on natural gas imports, with prices soaring to near 40%. Nevertheless, the recent news could prompt traders to trim some of those bets as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.

Earlier, BoE’s Megan Greene, who was hawkish ahead of the Iran war, said she remains worried about price pressures. She commented that it could take months to see the impact of the energy shock on the British economy, given the surge in energy prices.

Ahead, the UK docket will feature the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which are expected to improve from no growth to 0.1% MoM in February. In the US, traders eye the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 11 and speeches by Fed officials.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3573, extending a constructive tone after reclaiming the main simple moving averages (SMAs). The latest reading of the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs from the moving average triple cluster around 1.3428, leaving spot comfortably above this band and hinting at a bullish near‑term bias while the uptrend structure remains intact.

On the downside, initial support is located at the prior confluence zone around 1.3490–1.3492, where the rising support trend line intersects with recent reaction lows. A deeper pullback would expose the dense SMA cluster near 1.3428, reinforced by the previously capping descending trend line that last rejected prices near 1.3436 and now acts as additional underlying demand. As long as GBP/USD holds above these supports, dips are likely to remain shallow, even if upside reference levels above the market are not yet well defined by the current indicator set.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Gold trades with a mild downside bias on Wednesday after briefly touching a one-month high earlier in the day.
• Hopes that US-Iran peace talks could resume this week lift sentiment, but risks remain elevated.
• On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD continues to trade within a range, with the 200-period SMA acting as a key resistance level.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds modest losses on Wednesday even as the US Dollar (USD) remains under broad pressure, while evolving Middle East developments continue to shape broader market sentiment. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,807 after briefly touching a one-month high of $4,871 during the Asian session.

Expectations of renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran have improved after US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox Business that “the Iran war can be over very soon.” Reports suggest a second round of peace talks could take place as early as this week, before the current two-week ceasefire expires.

Iranian state media reported that a Pakistani delegation is on its way to Iran to convey a US message and outline plans for a second round of talks.

However, the situation remains uncertain. According to a report by The Washington Post, the Pentagon is preparing to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days as the Trump administration steps up pressure on Iran to secure a deal.

This keeps market sentiment fragile despite cautious optimism that a diplomatic resolution may still be within reach. At the same time, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, limiting downside in Crude prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $89 at the time of writing, after briefly slipping to over three-week lows near $85 earlier in the day.

A US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that “US forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they would block imports and exports across the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the US blockade on Iranian vessels continues.

While Oil prices remain elevated, the pullback from recent highs has eased inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten monetary policy and reviving interest rate cut expectations, which could support the non-yielding metal.

However, uncertainty around the Fed’s path persists, as markets continue to assess the economic impact of the war in Middle East. This supports expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold in the coming months, which remains a headwind for Gold and is diminishing its safe-haven appeal despite heightened geopolitical tensions.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Wednesday that “rates are in a good place,” adding that the baseline is to remain on hold “for a while.” Hammack also noted that “inflation expectations look reasonably well contained,” while emphasizing that “we have to look at inflation and the spending impact of energy.”

Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests 200-period SMA resistance on the 4-hour chart

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows buyers struggling to extend gains above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,837, while holding above the 100-period SMA around $4,637, keeping price action largely range-bound with a mild bullish bias.

The Relative Strength Index (14) near 57 reinforces a positive tone without yet signaling overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, suggesting upside momentum remains in play even as gains approach the longer-term average overhead.

On the upside, a sustained break above the 200-period SMA could signal a clear breakout from the current range and strengthen buying interest, with gains potentially extending toward the $5,000 mark.

On the downside, the immediate pivot is the current price region around $4,800, with more meaningful dynamic support emerging at the 100-period SMA at $4,637, where a deeper pullback could look for buyers to re-enter in line with the prevailing constructive bias.