Forex News
- USD/CAD jumps to near 1.4213 as the Canadian Dollar faces pressure from lower oil prices.
- The US Dollar strengthens amid fears of aggressive Fed policy tightening.
- The US CPI data remained hotter-than-expected in October.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to under perform the US Dollar (USD) due to multiple headwinds. Lower oil prices due to United States (US)-Iran deal hopes and fresh fears of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening have strengthened the USD/CAD pair.
As of writing, the USD/CAD pair is up 0.17% to near 1.4213, the highest level seen in over three weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 102.37.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as Canada, which are net energy exporter, diminishes when oil prices decline. The WTI Oil price has fallen almost 18% to near $85.35 from its recent highs of 104.03.
Fed December hike seen as sealed as debate shifts to size of move
According to TD Securities, the “strong upside surprise in the US CPI makes a December hike all but certain,” with the bank reiterating that “today's data certainly seals a Dec rate hike by the Fed.” Strategists note that “after Waller's speech, the debate has now shifted to whether the FOMC will go 25 or 50bps,” as Governor Waller’s pre-CPI remarks have sharpened the focus on the need for a potential “catch-up” move. TD Securities writes that the discussion will now center on whether the Fed should implement a “catch-up 50bps rate hike in December, or whether to maintain course with a 25bps rate increase and provide strong guidance toward a potential January follow-through.” For now, they emphasize that “we still favor a 25bp hike with a rising risk of another hike in January.”
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.4212. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias, with price advancing above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4085, which now underpins the move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.9 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers retain control but with scope for consolidation after the recent recovery.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 1.4210 area as a nearby pivot, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.4085, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge if a pullback develops. With no significant technical resistance immediately overhead in this dataset, the focus remains on whether bulls can defend these underlying supports to extend the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains as the USD sticks to a bullish undertone.
- The hot US CPI and Fed’s Waller’s hawkish comments continue to act as a tailwind for the USD.
- The RBA’s recent dovish shift contributes to capping the Aussie, warranting some caution for bulls.
The AUD/USD pair gains some positive traction on Wednesday and moves away from its lowest level since late March, near the 0.6845-0.6840 zone set the previous day. Spot prices cling to gains near the 0.6875 area through the early European session, though the upside remains capped amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
Investors remain hopeful about a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war, which remains supportive of the risk-on impulse and acts as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. In fact, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that there is no need for major combat operations against Iran. This comes as US President Donald Trump told reporters that there is positive momentum behind negotiations with Iran.
However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and continuing tanker attacks in the waterway. Moreover, firming expectations for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) help the US Dollar (USD) stand firm near a two-week high, touched in reaction to hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, which caps gains for the AUD/USD pair.
US inflation progress stalls as core pressures stay elevated
Economists at Commerzbank caution that the latest data confirm inflation in the US is still uncomfortably high. They note that “prices are still rising too quickly, even though the increase was somewhat smaller than in September,” and stress that “the rapid decline in inflation that the Fed had hoped for has yet to materialize.” In their view, “core inflation, a key gauge of the underlying trend, thus remains (too) high and is no longer trending downward,” underscoring persistent underlying price pressures despite some moderation at the margin.
Meanwhile, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller prompted traders to price in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike in December. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish shift, signaling that the hiking cycle may be at or near its end. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair and further acts as a headwind.
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term tone under the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The pair's location below this key dynamic barrier suggests rallies are likely to be sold into near the said SMA at 0.6955, which needs to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way toward higher levels.
On the downside, the recent swing low around 0.6857 acts as the first meaningful support zone. A sustained break beneath this floor would reinforce the prevailing downtrend and expose deeper losses in the sessions ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.08% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.16% | -0.01% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.01% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.21% | -0.07% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.30% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD retreats to 1.1155 from Tuesday's highs in the mid-1.1200s but remains within recent ranges.
- German final HICP data confirmed that price pressures eased in October.
- The US Dollar has gained traction amid hot inflation numbers and hawkish Fed speakers.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, on Wednesday, failing to find support in the final German inflation release. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1155, after retreating from session highs just above 1.1250 on Tuesday, although it remains within the previous range, above year-to-date lows at the 1.1110 area.
Final German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data confirmed preliminary estimates of a 0.1% monthly contraction and the 2.8% year-on-year growth in October. These figures follow 0.6% and 3.3% respective increases in September.
US CPI data boosts Fed tightening hopes
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is outperforming most peers on Wednesday, favoured by a mix of hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, which have practically confirmed that the central bank will hike rates in December.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, overshooting the 0.3% growth expected by the market, amid higher costs of food and accommodation, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Core inflation also beat expectations with a 0.3% increase, while year-on-year data was undisclosed due to the 2025 Federal Government shutdown.
On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson called for a “further gradual tightening” ahead to bring inflation to target. A few hours later, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that “it is clear that the Fed needs at least two more quarter-percentage-point increases.”
In this context, markets are practically fully pricing a rate hike at the December 9 Fed monetary policy meeting, with a 12% chance of a 50-basis-points hike priced in. This is boosting the US Dollar across the board.
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.1%
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: -0.1%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.8%
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.8%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
- Stronger US inflation data drives market expectations of an 85% chance of a December Fed rate hike.
- Safe-haven US Dollar gains face potential downward pressure as Middle East geopolitical tensions show signs of easing.
- SNB is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0% next month with inflation remaining fully under control.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.8260 during early European hours on Wednesday. The currency pair continues to appreciate as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm following the latest US inflation report. The data has reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool currently pricing in an 85% probability of a rate increase next month.
The US Consumer Price Index grew 0.4% month-over-month in October, beating the 0.3% forecast despite slowing from September's 0.6% gain. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% to match September's pace and top expectations of 0.2%. Annual inflation metrics for October were omitted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to last year's government shutdown.
According to Commerzbank, US inflation remains uncomfortably elevated, with the bank stressing that “prices are still rising too quickly, even though the increase was somewhat smaller than in September.” In their view, the latest moderation in the monthly pace of gains does not yet signal a convincing shift toward price stability.
However, the Greenback may face near-term headwinds from easing safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions show signs of cooling. US President Donald Trump signaled that further military action against Iran might not be necessary, a sentiment echoed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the G7 meeting. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are looking to leverage the upcoming government funding deadline to push the administration toward a peaceful diplomatic outcome.
On the Swiss front, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Schlegel noted that price pressures remain contained and that the central bank has successfully fulfilled its medium-term price stability mandate. Declining oil prices have further moderated inflationary risks. Consequently, the SNB is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0% at its upcoming meeting. While financial markets are pricing in a potential rate hike by early 2027, most economists expect the first increase to occur closer to late 2027.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8260. With no key moving averages or structural levels provided, the near‑term tone is guided mainly by momentum, where the 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 tilts slightly positive after recovering from mid‑range readings, hinting that downside pressure has eased and buyers are gradually regaining control.
On the downside, the lack of clearly defined support levels in the dataset suggests traders will continue to lean on recent swing lows and intraday price action for reference, while on the topside, any recovery is likely to face supply first at prior reaction highs not specified numerically here. The latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading at 145.61, near the top of its recent range, subtly reinforces a constructive backdrop for the dollar, which could help USD/CHF extend gains if price breaks above nearby chart highs on the daily timeframe.
Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue’ as hawkish tone lifts Dollar
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a notably more hawkish tone, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 versus a historical average of 6.8/10, underscoring rising concern about persistent price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” that services inflation is “not coming down,” and that there is “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with” signals a lower tolerance for upside inflation surprises despite a “steady and stable” job market. The repeated stress on inflation becoming embedded in expectations and the assertion that “everything is always on the table” keep the door open to renewed tightening or a longer-for-longer stance, a configuration typically supportive for the Dollar and negative for risk-sensitive currencies.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, reinforcing that the speech sits firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. This upward shift in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index, aligned with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score, should underpin expectations for restrictive policy persistence and may continue to favor the Dollar over the Euro and Yen in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- WTI extends the previous day’s recovery move from its lowest level since late August.
- Bulls seem hesitant amid the optimism over diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war.
- The technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some buyers on Wednesday, looking to extend the previous day's goodish rebound from the $83.00 neighborhood, or its lowest level since late August. The commodity sticks to a mildly positive tone around the $85.70 region through the early European session, though it lacks bullish conviction amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal.
The geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and continuing tanker attacks in the strategic waterway. Adding to this, Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure further cloud the security situation in the Middle East. Moreover, a larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil inventories provides some support to the black liquid.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that there is no need for major combat operations against Iran. This comes as US President Donald Trump told reporters that there is positive momentum behind negotiations to end the Middle East war. This fuels optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the conflict and keeps a lid on crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the commodity holds under the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.42 and below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $89.97 of the $67.08–$104.12 recovery, keeping a bearish near-term tone. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 35, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative and depressed.
Momentum indicators together suggest persistent downside pressure even as conditions drift toward oversold territory. Hence, any subsequent move beyond the 200-day SMA at $86.42 might confront immediate resistance near the 38.2% retracement at $89.97. A daily close above this region would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward $95.38 and $104.12.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 50.0% retracement at $85.60, with a break exposing the 61.8% Fibo. level at $81.23, and then the deeper retracement supports at $75.01 and $67.08.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY holds onto previous day’s gains near 159.00 as the US Dollar outperforms.
- The expectations of a bigger Fed interest rate hike in December have also come into picture.
- Investors await Japan’s PPI data for October scheduled for Thursday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades weakly against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair hovering near its almost seven-week high of around 159.00. The pair reflects strength as the US Dollar outperforms due to fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver a bigger interest rate hike in the December meeting.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 102.32.
Financial markets have started pricing in a Fed 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike in the December meeting as United States (US) inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace in October.
US inflation surprise deepens Fed policy dilemma
Economists at Rabobank note that “yesterday’s US CPI print came in hotter than expected at 0.4% m-o-m headline vs. a consensus of 0.3% and 0.3% core vs. a 0.2% market view,” underscoring a renewed setback in the disinflation narrative.
Rabobank highlights that, in the words of the “usually dovish Fed voter Goolsbee, ‘it’s another distressing report, borderline disturbing. We’ve been hoping to get progress.’” Instead of further easing, Rabobank points to “an acceleration in grocery and food inflation, persistent housing/shelter price pressure, and a delayed pass-through from earlier energy shocks feeding into medical care, household furnishings, and other daily expenses,” all of which reinforce concerns that underlying price pressures remain stubbornly entrenched.
On Tokyo front, investors await the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which is scheduled for Thursday. Japan’s inflation at the producer level is estimated to have grown 0.3% Month-on-Month (MoM) after declining at a similar pace in September.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.88, close to the high of almost seven-week long consolidation range. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.10. The pair is advancing away from that dynamic support, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.38 rises in positive territory, which suggests buyers retain control without the market yet appearing overstretched.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 158.10, where a daily close back below would hint at easing upside pressure and a deeper correction towards the lower-end of the consolidation range near 156.00. Looking up, the pair would enter a fresh upside leg if it decisively breaks above 159.00. Key resistance levels would be 160.00 and the September high at 160.39.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 07:35 GMT on Wednesday to say in the first bullet that USD/JPY holds onto previous day’s gains, and not losses)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD clings to losses near 1.1166 as the US Dollar strengthens.
- Hot US CPI data for October has made a Fed interest rate hike in December almost certain.
- Financial markets start debating over the size of Fed’s rate hike next month.
The Euro (EUR) holds onto Tuesday’s losses at around 1.1166 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the European trading session on Wednesday.
The EUR/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar has strengthened due to fears of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) supersized interest rate hike in the December policy meeting, emerging from hot United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which was released on Tuesday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its fresh 12-day high of 102.41 posted on Tuesday.
Fed December hike seen as sealed as debate shifts to size of move
According to TD Securities, the “strong upside surprise in the US CPI makes a December hike all but certain,” with the bank reiterating that “today's data certainly seals a Dec rate hike by the Fed.” Strategists note that “after Waller's speech, the debate has now shifted to whether the FOMC will go 25 or 50bps,” as Governor Waller’s pre-CPI remarks have sharpened the focus on the need for a potential “catch-up” move. TD Securities writes that the discussion will now center on whether the Fed should implement a “catch-up 50bps rate hike in December, or whether to maintain course with a 25bps rate increase and provide strong guidance toward a potential January follow-through.” For now, they emphasize that “we still favor a 25bp hike with a rising risk of another hike in January.”
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1167, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1202. The pair remains pressured while it fails to reclaim this short-term trend gauge, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 stays below the midline, hinting at only modest negative momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is clearly defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.1202, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open room for a more meaningful rebound. Looking down, the 17-month low at 1.1104 is the key support level; a break below the same would expose the pair to the psychological level of 1.1000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Waller flags risk of larger december hike, lifting Dollar bulls
Fed’s Waller delivered a distinctly more hawkish tone, with a 9/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.3/10 historical average and underscoring a strong bias toward further tightening. The explicit openness to a half-point rate hike in December if core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, alongside support for at least a quarter-point move even on better data, signals a low bar for additional hikes and a clear intent to push real rates higher as policy has “not been nearly as restrictive” as previously thought. Emphasis on broad-based price pressures, persistent producer and energy cost risks, and still-solid labor conditions reinforces upside risks for US yields and supports the Dollar on a relative policy divergence narrative.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 3.17 points to 145.50, confirming a decisive shift deeper into hawkish territory consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. With the index far above the neutral 100 mark, markets are likely to price a higher probability of a December hike and potentially a larger move, favoring the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
- USD/IDR rises as the Indonesian Rupiah struggles amid market caution following domestic political instability.
- The US Dollar gained as stronger CPI data increased Fed rate hike bets.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests nearly a 91% probability of a rate hike in December.
USD/IDR gains ground after registering modest losses the previous day, trading around 18,140 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair advanced as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) came under pressure from heightened market caution following political instability in the country.
The uncertainty mounted after Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka met with President Prabowo Subianto and expressed his intention to resign. The offer followed two consecutive court rulings regarding Gibran's foreign educational credentials, including a Supreme Court decision invalidating his high school equivalency certificate, which raised questions about his eligibility for office and triggered calls for parliamentary impeachment proceedings.
The USD/IDR pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike odds in December after the release of the latest US inflation data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in approximately a 91% probability of a rate increase next month.
US Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, beating the 0.3% forecast even as it slowed from September's 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, matching September's pace and topping the 0.2% estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted annual figures for October due to last year's government shutdown.
USD stays supported as markets lean toward a more hawkish Fed
According to TD Securities, the Dollar is set to remain underpinned in the coming sessions, with the bank arguing that “the USD will likely stay bid in the near-term as the market assesses odds of a more hawkish Fed.” This reflects their view that recent data have pushed investors to reassess the policy path, keeping the US currency supported while those expectations are repriced.
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
- GBP/USD attracts some dip-buyers, though the upside remains capped amid a bullish USD.
- The hot US CPI and odds for a jumbo Fed rate hike in December lend support to the buck.
- The BoE’s hawkish tilt acts as a tailwind for the GBP, warranting caution for bearish traders.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to build on modest Asian session uptick beyond mid-1.3300s, though it holds above a one-and-a-half-week trough, touched the previous day.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves the previous day's hot US consumer inflation figures-inspired gains amid odds for a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. That said, hopes for US-Iran diplomacy cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices defended the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and hold a mildly positive near-term tone above several Fibonacci retracement levels. The setup suggests underlying demand after the recent pullback from the 1.3506 swing high. Momentum indicators, however, remain subdued and warrant caution for GBP/USD bulls.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index is near 38, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fractionally negative and flattening, hinting that buyers lack strong conviction and that upside progress could be gradual. Meanwhile, initial resistance is aligned at the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.3365, ahead of the 23.6% retracement at 1.3419, while the 1.3506 swing high remains the key bullish target.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3322, followed by the 200-period SMA at 1.3314. A convincing break below these would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at 1.3279 and 1.3217, with 1.3138 acting as a more distant structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,198.48 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,158.77 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 142,280.30 per tola from INR 141,817.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,198.48 |
10 Grams | 121,987.20 |
Tola | 142,280.30 |
Troy Ounce | 379,415.30 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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