Forex News
Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen and colleagues note that a stronger US CPI print and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric triggered a sharp repricing of Fed expectations, lifting the Dollar Index and weighing on EUR/USD. Markets now fully price a 25 bp Fed hike in December and see some risk of 50 bp, while US yields surged across the curve, reinforcing Dollar strength.
Hawkish Fed bets pressure Euro
"That impact was clear from market pricing, with the amount of hikes for a December up from 21.0bps on Monday to 27.7bps by last night’s close, and 28.5bps this morning."
"So in other words, a 25bp hike is fully priced in, with futures also pricing in a 14% chance of a larger 50bp move."
"Indeed, the rate priced in for the September 2027 meeting was up +22.3bps yesterday, so investors had priced in almost a full additional rate hike to next year’s path."
"For markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve."
"Meanwhile, DB’s own US economists have updated their Fed view, adding a rate hike in January to their profile."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/JPY struggles to capitalize on a modest uptick as a broadly firmer USD pressures the GBP.
- The BoE’s hawkish stance could help limit GBP losses and support the cross amid a weaker JPY.
- The uncertainty over the likely timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps JPY bulls on the defensive.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the 212.15-212.20 area on Wednesday, retreating to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 211.70 region, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.
A broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), bolstered by bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is seen weighing on the British Pound (GBP), which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. However, the Bank of England (BoE) hawkish stance could help limit deeper GBP losses. In fact, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Tuesday that further interest rate increases remain likely due to high energy prices and economic resilience in the UK.
Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that Japan's Household Spending declined for the 10th straight month in September, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans for further interest rate hikes. This, along with the prevailing risk-on mood, is seen as undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and should offer support to the GBP/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful depreciation in the near term.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to Thursday's UK macro data dump, including the preliminary Q3 GDP print. In the meantime, the aforementioned supporting factors back the case for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels. Bulls, however, would need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance, currently pegged around the 213.00 round figure, before placing fresh bets.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
TD Securities reports that US Treasuries bear flattened sharply after stronger US CPI and hawkish comments from Governor Waller led markets to price in additional Fed tightening. Front-end yields moved higher, breakevens widened, and the bank warns that highly negative BE carry in early 2027 could become a headwind for the inflation-linked asset class.
Front-end repricing and BE carry headwinds
"Rates: Treasuries bear flattened sharply as the market penciled in more rate hikes."
"Markets leaned into Governor Waller's comments from earlier in the session around potentially needing a "catch up" 50bp hike, bringing pricing for hikes in December higher from 25bp to around 28bp and increasing pricing for hikes in 2027 to 45bp from 34bp."
"This pressured the front-end sharply higher, flattening the curve and moving BEs wider."
"Markets will be waiting on further Fedspeak to confirm whether other FOMC members agree with Waller before pushing December pricing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US index futures jumped after President Trump signaled reduced likelihood of further military action against Iran.
- CoreWeave’s strong quarterly beats and Anthropic’s potential debut fueled renewed optimism across the AI sector.
- The pre-market rebound follows Tuesday’s losses driven by heightened CPI-linked Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
Dow Jones futures gain 0.16% to trade around 52,400 during the European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures advance 0.60% to trade around 7,590 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.45% to trade around 28,230.
US stock futures surged as risk appetite returned to the market, driven by signs of easing geopolitical friction. US President Donald Trump indicated that further military action against Iran may no longer be required, a stance supported by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the G7 summit. At the same time, Congressional Democrats are planning to use the approaching government funding deadline as leverage to steer the administration toward a diplomatic resolution.
Market sentiment gained momentum from strong financial results delivered by AI computing provider CoreWeave, which rekindled enthusiasm for the broader artificial intelligence sector. CoreWeave shares jumped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after the company delivered beat-and-raise quarterly earnings, underscoring resilient demand for AI infrastructure. Confidence in the space was also reinforced by reports that Anthropic could make its market debut as soon as next week, aiming to raise up to $90 billion at a diluted valuation near $1.4 trillion.
This rebound follows a weak session on Wall Street on Tuesday, where the Dow Jones dropped 0.35%, the S&P 500 shed 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.74%. US equities came under pressure after the latest CPI release solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch tool suggesting 85% odds of a rate increase in December.
US core inflation print surprises to the upside in October
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen highlights that the latest US inflation data came in firmer than anticipated, noting that “October core CPI surprised to the upside at 0.3% m/m.” He points out that this stronger core reading underscores lingering underlying price pressures, even as markets look ahead to the corresponding PCE data for a fuller assessment of the inflation trend.
AI stocks FAQs
First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve.
There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine.
Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
Rabobank’s Global Daily flags comments from Dutch European Central Bank (ECB) presidential candidate Klaas Knot, who told the Financial Times that the ECB would not hesitate to act if circumstances require. He suggested that in a future crisis of a different nature, the ECB might develop another, more tailored instrument, raising questions about how far policy support could extend.
Knot hints at future ECB flexibility
"It’s also notable that the Dutch candidate to replace ECB President Lagarde, Klaas Knot, gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he stated, “If circumstances require it, we will not hesitate to take action.”"
"He wasn’t referring to 50bps rate hikes due to geopolitically driven inflation but in the opposite direction, where if Europe were to see a future crisis “of a different nature,” he “would not rule out developing another, more tailored instrument.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz highlights that persistent US inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. The report cites comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating at least a 25-basis-point hike in December, with 50 basis points considered under certain conditions. Commerzbank continues to expect another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting.
Market focus on December FOMC decision
"We continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its next meeting in December."
"In a speech this morning before the data were released, influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already called for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in December, even if the figures came in better than in September."
"Waller said that if the monthly core reading was 0.3% (as now reported) or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should even be considered."
"This signals the direction of the debate, although we do not expect such a drastic move to win majority support on the Federal Open Market Committee."
"We continue to believe that September’s single rate hike is not enough to bring inflation down meaningfully, especially with the economy still humming and unemployment low."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The comments from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, also a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, released during the European trading session on Wednesday, signaled that he is optimistic on German economic growth in the last quarter this year. However, Nagel warned that the growth won’t be broad-based.
Additional remarks
German recovery stronger than forecast.
Our interim assessments point to a stronger recovery than we were expecting in the summer.
Economic growth is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter.
However, the recovery is not yet broad-based.
Private consumption remains subdued, and investment in machinery and equipment declined in the second quarter.
Market reaction
There is a sharp sell-off in the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD)during the release of ECB Nagel's remarks. However, the decline appears to be the outcome of an upside move in the US Dollar. As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.15% to near 1.1140.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- EUR/GBP stands above the top of the previous range, at 0.8360, but is failing to find acceptance above 0.8370.
- Market sentiment remains positive, but a mild rebound in Oil prices is weighing on the Euro.
- German final HICP data confirmed that inflation pressures moderated in October.
The Euro (EUR) trades practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as the rebound in Oil prices is offsetting the positive risk sentiment. The EUR/GBP pair holds above the top of the previous trading range, at 0.8360 so far, but remains unable to find acceptance above 0.8370.
Crude Oil prices have bounced up from Tuesday’s lows, with Brent Oil returning above the $90 level, as traders start to grow wary about the lack of progress in the negotiations to reach a peace deal in the Middle East.
On the macroeconomic front, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released earlier on Wednesday showed that inflationary pressures eased moderately in October. The Final HICP confirmed preliminary estimates of a 0.1% monthly contraction and the 2.8% year-on-year growth in October following 0.6% and 3.3% respective increases in September.
In the UK, the calendar is thin on Wednesday, with investors on the lookout for Thursday's Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release. Markets are bracing for moderate economic growth, boosted by a strong manufacturing sector that would cement hopes for another BoE rate kike in the first months of 2027.
Technical Analysis: Indicators show growing bullish momentum
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8367, holding a mild bullish near-term tone as it holds just above a previous resistance area at 0.8360. The Relative Strength Index (14) leans into positive territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, together suggesting that buyers retain the upper hand as long as the pair defends this immediate floor.
Bulls, however, are struggling to find follow-through above 0.8370. Further up, they might also find some resistance at the October 28 high around 0.8380, ahead of the October 26 high in the 0.8400 area
A bearish reaction below the mentioned support around 0.8360 (October 30, November 2 highs), on the contrary, would expose the November 6 and 9 lows, near 0.8335, ahead of the year-to-date lows, near 0.8320.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.07% | 0.11% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.00% | -0.07% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.04% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.03% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.12% | -0.14% | 0.04% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.26% | -0.08% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.14% | 0.26% | 0.19% | 0.43% | |
| NZD | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.19% | 0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.43% | -0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- United States Dollar Index may test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 102.50.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 58 suggests steady upside momentum.
- The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 102.01.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the second successive day and trading near 102.40 during the European hours on Wednesday.
The near-term tone remains bullish as the DXY holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the short- and medium-term trend underpinned. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 sits in positive but non-extreme territory, suggesting steady upside momentum rather than an overextended rally.
The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the dollar index is remaining within the symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling a period of consolidation before the price breaks out or breaks down.
The DXY may test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 102.50, followed by the 19-month high of 102.94, reached on October 14.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index may find its primary support at the nine-day EMA of 102.01, followed by the 50-day EMA of 101.41 and the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 101.20. A break below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the dollar index to navigate the region around a nearly six-month low of 98.56, which was recorded on August 20.
Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue’, lifting hawkish Fed tone and supporting the Dollar
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a notably more hawkish tone, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 compared to the established baseline of 6.8/10, underscoring rising concern about persistent price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” that services inflation is “not coming down,” and that there is “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with” signals a lower tolerance for upside inflation surprises and keeps the bar high for any near-term policy easing. References to overheating prices across “a whole bunch of things,” alongside a “steady and stable” job market and the warning that inflation becoming embedded in expectations would be a “major concern,” reinforce a bias toward maintaining or even tightening restrictive policy, a mix that is typically supportive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive FX.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. This move higher in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index signals that markets should treat Goolsbee’s remarks as incrementally hawkish for the Fed reaction function, skewing risks toward tighter-for-longer policy expectations.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.01% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.12% | -0.13% | 0.03% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.35% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.17% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | -0.18% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.11% | -0.35% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Gold edges higher on Wednesday as Iran diplomacy hopes cap the strong post-US CPI dollar rally.
- Bets on more aggressive tightening by the Fed favor USD bulls and could keep a lid on bullion.
- The mixed technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) clings to modest intraday gains above $4,050 during the first half of the European session on Wednesday, though the bearish fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation. US Dollar (USD) bulls seem hesitant amid hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, which, in turn, offers some support to the commodity. Meanwhile, Tuesday's hot US inflation figures fuel expectations of a more aggressive policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This helps the USD stand firm near a two-week high and might keep a lid on non-yielding bullion.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Paris that the economic campaign against Iran is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations. This comes as US President Donald Trump played down escalation concerns after the midterm elections. In fact, Trump told reporters that renewed US attacks on Iran were highly unlikely and added that there is positive momentum behind negotiations to end the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Iran urged the US to meet its demands in a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
This fuels optimism about a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war, which, in turn, caps the safe-haven Greenback. However, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December, bolstered by Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, favors USD bulls. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline CPI rose 0.4% in October, coming in above market expectations of 0.3%. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was up 0.3%, matching September's increase and surpassing estimates of 0.2%.
Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a stronger-than-expected core CPI reading of 0.3% could prompt him to consider a larger 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase at the December 8–9 policy meeting. Waller added that hiking only 25 bps would put Fed credibility at risk. Furthermore, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted that ongoing restrictive policy is needed to push inflation back down to 2%, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that rate hikes may need to happen at a faster pace than previously anticipated. This favors USD bulls and should cap gold.
Waller flags December hike risk as Fed hawkish tone jumps above baseline
Fed’s Waller delivered a distinctly more hawkish message, with a 9/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.3/10 historical average and underscoring a clear bias toward further tightening. The conditional endorsement of a potential half-point December rate hike if October core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, alongside support for at least a quarter-point move even on better data, signals a strong reaction function to any sign that US inflation is drifting away from target. Emphasis on the breadth of price increases, expectations of further producer price and energy pressures, and the view that policy has not been restrictive enough all reinforce upside risks for US Treasury yields and front-end rates.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 3.17 points to 145.50, confirming a decisive shift deeper into hawkish territory consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. With the index far above the neutral 100 mark, markets are likely to price a higher probability of additional Fed tightening, supporting the US Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair showed some resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $4,024, suggesting underlying trend support. The precious metal, however, remains capped beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,080, leaving the near-term tone broadly neutral following the recent repeated failures near the $4,150 horizontal resistance. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index around 41 hints at only modest downside fatigue, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recovering into positive territory suggests fading bearish momentum rather than a clear bullish impulse.
Hence, any further move up could face resistance near the 23.6% Fibo. at $4,080, above which the Gold price could climb to the $4,145-$4,150 area, where stronger supply could be expected. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50.0% retracement at $4,008 and the 61.8% Fibo. level at $3,975, with deeper cushions emerging at $3,929 and the cycle low area near $3,870.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | 0.14% | 0.32% | 0.66% | -0.06% | -0.66% | 1.01% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.44% | 0.80% | 0.17% | -0.53% | 1.14% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | -0.27% | 0.15% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.83% | 0.86% | |
| JPY | -0.32% | -0.44% | -0.15% | 0.35% | -0.43% | -0.95% | 0.65% | |
| CAD | -0.66% | -0.80% | -0.52% | -0.35% | -0.74% | -1.34% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.11% | 0.43% | 0.74% | -0.69% | 0.88% | |
| NZD | 0.66% | 0.53% | 0.83% | 0.95% | 1.34% | 0.69% | 1.69% | |
| CHF | -1.01% | -1.14% | -0.86% | -0.65% | -0.38% | -0.88% | -1.69% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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