Forex News
Wells Fargo Economics expects Mexico’s June CPI to confirm gradual disinflation, with headline and core inflation easing but services prices still sticky. Banxico is seen maintaining the Overnight Rate at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, though risks tilt toward cuts if growth disappoints and disinflation broadens further in coming quarters.
CPI path points to extended pause
"Mexico’s June CPI release next week should provide more clarity on whether disinflation is broadening enough to reopen the door to rate cuts. Based on the mid-month data, we expect headline and core inflation to slow to 3.75% year over year and 4.10%, respectively, from 3.94% and 4.19% in May."
"At its June meeting, Banxico’s Governing Board unanimously held the Overnight Rate at 6.50% and suggested that the current policy setting remains appropriate for an extended period. Policymakers also revised their Q2-2026 headline inflation forecast slightly lower, while the core forecast moved slightly higher."
"Our base case remains for Banxico to stay on hold through year-end and into 2027. That said, risks are tilted toward a cut rather than a hike. Banxico expects growth to rebound in Q2 after contracting in Q1, then expand at a steady pace. If activity instead continues to struggle and disinflation broadens further, a rate cut could come by year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale notes that CEE FX is being shaped by diverging inflation and policy signals across the region. Polish inflation’s return to the NBP target has strengthened the case for a final 25 basis point rate cut this year, while EUR/CZK is retracing after CNB Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said June’s rate hike was pre-emptive and one-off. In Hungary, EUR/HUF reversed lower as Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the country could meet euro adoption criteria by 2030.
Polish inflation return boosts easing odds
"EUR/HUF reversed lower after testing the 50dma at 356.91 after PM Magyar said Hungary could meet the EU economic criteria for euro adoption by 2030 despite projections for the deficit to widening above 7% this year."
"Meeting the criteria could bolster business, investor and consumer confidence, but euro adoption would remain a separate political decision requiring public consultation."
"In Poland, inflation unexpectedly returned to the NBP target of 2.5% in June. This increases the likelihood of a final 25bp rate cut this year rather than next year. EUR/PLN briefly rallied above 4.30."
"EUR/CZK retracing below 24.20. CNB deputy governor Zamrazilova reiterated that the rate increase last month was pre-emptive and a one-off. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI struggles to attract buyers and languishes near its lowest level since late February.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
- A break below 78.6% Fibo. is needed to reaffirm the negative bias amid oversold RSI.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $69.25 area on Friday, its modest bounce from the lowest level since late February touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades just above mid-$68.00s, up around 0.30% for the day, though it remains on track to register losses for the fourth consecutive week.
From a technical perspective, Crude Oil prices maintain a bearish near-term tone below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2025-March 2026 rally. That said, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits in oversold territory near 29 and keeps the risk of a short-lived corrective bounce, warranting caution before placing fresh bearish bets.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure. However, a sustained break below the 78.6% Fibo. level, near $67.50 is needed to back the case for an extension of the bearish trend towards a deeper floor seen near the prior cycle low level of $55.12.
On the topside, any recovery attempt is likely to face immediate resistance at the 200-day SMA around $73.19, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $77.23. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 50.0% level at $84.05, with higher barriers aligned at the 38.2% retracement around $90.88 and the 23.6% level near $99.33.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD trades subduedly near 1.4175 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure.
- Traders trim hawkish Fed bets, following the release of the weak US NFP data for June.
- Lower oil prices continue to keep the Canadian Dollar on the back foot.
The USD/CAD pair reflects a subdued performance near 1.4175 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure due to easing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) prospects.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.14% lower to near 100.70.
Weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June has forced traders to reconsider hawkish Fed interest rate expectations. The data showed on Thursday that the economy created 57K fresh jobs in June, fewer than 110K estimates.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US ISM Services PMI data for June, which will be released on Friday.
On the Canadian Dollar (CAD) front, the currency has remained under pressure as oil prices have returned to pre-Middle East war levels, given that Canada is a net oil exporter. Oil prices have faced pressure as Oman has touted progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.4179, but holds a clear bullish bias as price sits above both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA at 1.4108 and the 50-day EMA at 1.3965 reinforce an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14), hovering just below the overbought region around 70, suggests persistent but stretched upside momentum.
On the downside, the pair could extend its correction to the 20-day EMA near 1.4110 as the US Dollar is under pressure. Given that the broader outlook is bullish, the odds are high that the correction move near the 20-day EMA would offer a buying opportunity to investors. On the upside, the pair could regain strength if it manages to break above the June 24 high at 1.4248; above that, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.4300.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 57K
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 172K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
A report from the Bank of England (BoE) decision maker panel (DMP) has shown that businesses’ year-ahead expected own-price inflation was 4.1% in the three months to June, 0.1% point higher than firms reported in the three months to May.
The report also showed that firms' year-ahead expected wage growth rose by 0.1% point to 3.5% in the three months to June from 3.4% in May.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that weaker US jobs data and reduced odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike have driven Gold above $4,100/oz.
The bank expects Gold to trend toward $4,280/oz near term, with support near $3,900/oz holding. However, lingering Oil-driven inflation risks are seen delaying any move toward the $5,300/oz target until next year.
Gold supported by softer Fed outlook
"With job creation activity weakening and oil prices falling sharply, there is little urgency to raise U.S. policy rates anytime soon. Lower energy prices and softer job growth suggest inflationary pressures are likely to ease in the months ahead."
"As long as an early Fed funds rate hike remains off the table, a break below the lower-bound support level of $3,900/oz is unlikely. Indeed, after prices rallied through resistance in the $4,050/oz to $4,126/oz range at the time of writing, we expect gold to establish a higher trading range."
"We are increasingly convinced that gold will trend up to $4,280/oz in the near term, with a low probability of breaching support near $3,900/oz. At the same time, lingering oil-driven inflation risks will considerably delay the expected rally to $5,300/oz."
"While we are not yet super bullish on the yellow metal due to lingering inflationary pressures and the risk that interest rates could still move higher, albeit a risk that has diminished recently, we believe spot gold is likely to rally only toward resistance at $4,280/oz."
"Furthermore, given that inflation is likely to remain stubbornly elevated and that oil prices may still move higher due to dangerously low and declining global inventory levels, we do not expect gold to reach our $5,300+/oz target until next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that AUD/USD’s abrupt jump to 0.6943 was not sustained, leaving the pair likely to consolidate between 0.6895 and 0.6945 in the near term. For the next one to three weeks, the bank maintains a neutral stance, expecting the Australian Dollar to trade between 0.6870 and 0.6980 despite a still-negative longer-term bias.
Short term range, medium term neutral
"24-HOUR VIEW: We expected AUD to “trade in a range between 0.6880 and 0.6915.” During the NY session, AUD dipped to 0.6885, and then in an abrupt move, jumped to a high of 0.6943. However, the advance was not sustained, as AUD pulled back to close at 0.6923 (+0.42%). The sharp rise appears to be overdone, and AUD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, AUD is more likely to consolidate between 0.6895 and 0.6945."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our AUD view from negative to neutral two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 0.6915). We noted that “downward momentum has faded,” and we indicated that AUD “is likely to trade between 0.6870 and 0.6980 for the time being.” We continue to hold the same view for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY drifts lower for the second day, though it finds support near the 200-SMA on H4.
- Acceptance below 23.6% Fibo. favor bears and back the case for a further depreciation.
- Any meaningful recovery attempts are more likely to be sold into and remain capped.
The USD/JPY pair turns lower for the second straight day following an intraday uptick to mid-161.00s and drops to a more than two-week low during the first half of the European session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just below the 161.00 mark, down over 0.15% for the day.
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. However, the intraday downfall finds some support near the 160.50-160.45 region, representing the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said area should lend nearby trend support and keep the near-term tone broadly neutral.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 33 indicates lingering weak momentum after dipping toward oversold territory, in line with a consolidative rather than aggressively bearish setup. Any further recovery, however, could face initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibo. level. A sustained break above this hurdle would be needed to ease immediate pressure and open the door for a further recovery towards the 161.75-161.80 area en route to 162.00.
On the downside, first support aligns with the 200-period EMA at 160.57, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 159.86. A convincing break through these layers should pave the way for an extension of the USD/JPY pair’s retracement slide from a four-decade high. The subsequent fall would expose the lower retracement supports at 158.93 and 158.00, with deeper Fibonacci levels at 156.68 and 154.99 acting as broader structural cushions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.57% | -1.19% | -0.55% | -0.10% | -0.78% | -1.23% | -0.99% | |
| EUR | 0.57% | -0.68% | 0.02% | 0.44% | -0.24% | -0.73% | -0.48% | |
| GBP | 1.19% | 0.68% | 0.73% | 1.13% | 0.42% | -0.05% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.55% | -0.02% | -0.73% | 0.45% | -0.24% | -0.60% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.44% | -1.13% | -0.45% | -0.69% | -1.04% | -0.82% | |
| AUD | 0.78% | 0.24% | -0.42% | 0.24% | 0.69% | -0.48% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | 1.23% | 0.73% | 0.05% | 0.60% | 1.04% | 0.48% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.99% | 0.48% | -0.21% | 0.47% | 0.82% | 0.22% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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