Forex News
The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures could still rise.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.80% | 1.02% | -0.19% | 1.09% | 0.91% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.46% | 0.70% | -0.52% | 0.77% | 0.58% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.80% | -0.46% | 0.25% | -0.98% | 0.30% | 0.12% | -0.72% | |
| JPY | -1.02% | -0.70% | -0.25% | -1.19% | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.93% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.52% | 0.98% | 1.19% | 1.28% | 1.11% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -1.09% | -0.77% | -0.30% | -0.07% | -1.28% | -0.17% | -1.02% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.58% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -1.11% | 0.17% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.26% | 0.72% | 0.93% | -0.26% | 1.02% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1550 region after touching fresh 2026 lows earlier in the week, even though the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish tilt, with markets now pricing an 85% probability of a rate hike this year.
GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330 after the Bank of England (BoE) held rates on Thursday but signaled it may need to tighten policy if energy-driven inflation persists.
USD/JPY is trading near 159.30 with the Yen catching a bid as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) signaled it will resume its normalization path.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7010 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for a second consecutive meeting, though broader risk-off sentiment continues to weigh on the Aussie.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $98 per barrel, near its weekly high after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold plummeted to $4,583 after a brutal selloff driven by rising Treasury yields and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, outpacing any safe-haven demand from the conflict.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, March 23:
- ECB's Escrivá.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Lane.
Tuesday, March 24:
- RBNZ's Breman.
- ECB's Kocher.
- ECB's Sleijpen.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Nagel.
- ECB's Lane.
- Fed's Barr.
Wednesday, March 25:
- ECB's President Lagarde.
- ECB's Lane.
- BoE's Greene.
- Fed's Miran.
Thursday, March 26:
- ECB's De Guindos.
- BoE's Breeden.
- BoE's Greene.
- BoE's Taylor.
- Fed's Cook.
- Fed's Miran.
- Fed's Jefferson.
- Fed's Logan.
- Fed's Barr.
Friday, March 27:
- Fed's Daly.
- Fed's Paulson.
- ECB's Schnabel.
Saturday, March 28:
- ECB's Cipollone.
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies
Monday, March 23:
- Eurozone March Consumer Confidence Prel.
- Australia March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan February Consumer Price Index.
Tuesday, March 24:
- Eurozone March HCOB PMIs Prel.
- UK March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- US ADP Employment Change.
- US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
- US March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland March ZEW Survey – Expectations.
- Germany March IFO Business Climate.
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK April Consumer Confidence.
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- US Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand March ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
(This story was corrected on March 20 at 22:14 GMT to say that the war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week instead of the fourth.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold drops nearly 2% to $4,560, heading for weekly losses above 8.5%.
- US 10-year yield jumps to 4.38% as markets price out Fed cuts.
- Oil near $98 and Middle East escalation boost DXY to 99.58, pressuring bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) price extended on Friday its losses for the eighth straight day, poised to end the week down by more than 8.50% as Oil prices continued to rally, boosting the haven appeal of the Greenback. The jump in US Treasury yields and market participants' pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the yellow metal downward pressured.
Gold set for 8% weekly loss as Fed rate cut bets vanish, Middle East conflict escalates
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,560, down nearly 2% in the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.43% at 99.58.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict is weighing on the precious metals segment. A Wall Street Journal headline read "Pentagon Sends More Troops to the Middle East," pushing oil prices higher amid growing speculation of boots on the ground in Iran.
Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have risen and are weighing on the yellow metal, as the 10-year Treasury note is soaring nearly 14 basis points to 4.384%, signalling that investors are not expecting rate cuts; instead, they've begun to price in rate increases this year.
WTI rally weighs on Gold prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude Oil benchmark, is gaining nearly 4% up at $98.29 per barrel. Israel's attacks on Iran's energy facilities triggered a retaliation from the latter, which struck energy infrastructure in Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait.
Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating that if he does not see disinflation progress, "I won't see a rate cut." Despite this, the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers are still eyeing a rate cut amid the Middle East conflict.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that he initially planned to support a rate cut based on the jobs report, but rising inflation has shifted his focus. He mentioned that prolonged high oil prices can eventually impact core inflation.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also crossed the wires, stating that she had penciled in three rate cuts this year. She added that she expects strong economic growth and that she still sees a weak labour market.
In the upcoming week, the US economic calendar will include the Flash PMIs, Current Account, Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Inventories.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold poised to test $4,000 on a breach of $4,400
Gold price hovers around $4,500 after breaching key support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,581, which could open the door for further downside. Worth noting that market structure still supports a neutral-to-bullish bias, but a daily-weekly close beneath the February 2 cycle low of $4,402 it would clear the path to challenge the 200-day SMA at $4,066.
In the short term, the momentum has turned bearish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has cleared the neutral level since Monday and is now approaching oversold territory.
On the bullish side, if XAU/USD climbs past the 100-day SMA and reclaims $4,600, traders could expect a near-term retest of the 50-day SMA at $4,961.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CHF trades flat on Friday after failing to sustain a move above 0.7900.
- Middle East tensions and rising Oil prices continue to underpin USD strength.
- SNB intervention signals curb CHF gains despite risk-off sentiment.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, reversing part of its earlier gains as the Greenback eases slightly from daily highs. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7878 after briefly touching the 0.7900 mark.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.54 after retreating from an intraday high of 99.79.
Despite the modest pullback in the Greenback, it remains up nearly 0.30% on the day, limiting follow-through selling pressure in USD/CHF. However, the Franc remains relatively firm across the board on Friday, outperforming most major peers, though it lags the USD, which has attracted renewed demand since the US-Israel war with Iran escalated.
The Swiss Franc initially strengthened as the Middle East conflict erupted, supported by safe-haven demand. However, gains faded quickly after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) signaled a willingness to intervene in the FX market, prompting traders to trim long CHF positions.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate market sentiment, with limited signs of de-escalation raising the risk of a prolonged conflict. In the latest developments, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday, citing US officials, that the Pentagon is deploying three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the region.
The report comes even as President Donald Trump indicated earlier that the US would avoid deploying ground troops in Iran.
This is keeping Oil and broader energy prices elevated. Since Oil is denominated in USD, rising energy prices typically increase demand for the Greenback. At the same time, the USD remains the preferred safe-haven currency in periods of market stress, as traders seek liquidity and stability, further underpinning its strength.
Markets also digested this week’s monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Both central banks left interest rates unchanged, with the Fed holding its benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range and the SNB maintaining its policy rate at 0.00%, in line with market expectations. Policymakers also highlighted rising risks to the economic outlook stemming from the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.
Looking ahead, the outlook differs for the two economies. In the US, higher Oil prices may push inflation higher, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates and supporting expectations that rates could stay elevated for longer. In Switzerland, inflation is already low, and a strong Swiss Franc helps limit imported price pressure, reducing the need for tighter policy.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.19% | 0.64% | 0.97% | -0.22% | 0.83% | 0.66% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | -0.19% | 0.44% | 0.81% | -0.41% | 0.64% | 0.45% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | -0.64% | -0.44% | 0.36% | -0.85% | 0.19% | 0.02% | -0.66% | |
| JPY | -0.97% | -0.81% | -0.36% | -1.16% | -0.14% | -0.30% | -0.96% | |
| CAD | 0.22% | 0.41% | 0.85% | 1.16% | 1.04% | 0.87% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.83% | -0.64% | -0.19% | 0.14% | -1.04% | -0.17% | -0.85% | |
| NZD | -0.66% | -0.45% | -0.02% | 0.30% | -0.87% | 0.17% | -0.68% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.66% | 0.96% | -0.19% | 0.85% | 0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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