Forex News

• The Oil price turns sideways after reaching the $90.00 mark.
• Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
• US President Trump said that renewed Middle East conflicts are unlikely to last “too long”.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, consolidates in a tight range around $88.85 during the European trading session on Thursday. The rally in oil prices has paused after reaching the $90 mark; however, the outlook seems positive as the oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, remains restricted amid ongoing Middle East conflicts.

According to data from Kpler, four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from 10 ​on Monday and below the 10-day average ‌of around 13.

The resumption of the exchange of attacks between the United States (US) and Iran near the chokepoint has limited the oil supply.

The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iranian military targets, aiming to neutralize them before planting mines around the strategic waterway this week, following almost a month of relative calm. In retaliation, Iran also attacked US bases in Jordan and warned of further military aggression.

Meanwhile, the comments from US President Donald Trump on Wednesday indicated that the renewed attacks between both nations won’t last “too long”.

WTI Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $88.86. The contract holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $84.25, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.69 stays in positive territory but below overbought levels, suggesting firm yet not overstretched bullish momentum as price consolidates near recent highs.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at $84.25, where buyers are likely to defend the current advance on any pullback. As long as WTI holds above this moving average, the technical structure favors further upside exploration, with dips toward the EMA likely to attract renewed demand rather than signal a trend reversal.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Danske Research Team reports that EUR/USD is around the 1.16 level while European government bond yields continue to climb and US yields show a mixed pattern. Ten-year German yields are up about 50 basis points since early July, with the curve steepening, and US Treasuries have risen nearly 40 basis points, shaping the backdrop for the currency pair.

Pair holds around 1.16 level

"European government bond yields continued to rise yesterday, while it was a more mixed picture in the US. 10Y German government bond yields have now risen 50bp since early July, while 10Y Treasuries have risen almost 40bp. The German curve has steepened between 2-10Y as the 2Y German bond has risen 40bp. The US curve has also steepened some 10bp. "

"The final euro area service and composite PMIs for August are released today, which we expect to confirm the flash release. The flash services PMI was unchanged at 51.7 but still came in above expectations. Tuesday's final manufacturing PMI, which makes up 35% of the final composite PMI, showed a solid rebound, with Germany in the driver's seat."

"US final services PMIs for August are due. The August flash release increased markedly for the second month in a row to the highest level since December 2024. The details pointed to solid demand, rising backlogs and firmer hiring, while output charge inflation eased to a six-month low despite still-elevated input cost pressures."

"Also in the US, the Challenger layoff report for August is released. In July, layoff announcements were at their lowest level in two years, while levels are already low from a historical perspective. AI has accounted for around one third of layoffs in recent months."

"In the US, ADP private payrolls increased by 38k in August (cons.: 48k), while the July print was revised slightly higher to 46k from 44k. Sector details were mixed: Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality and Construction had higher payrolls growth than in July, while Manufacturing and Professional & Business services declined by 17k and 16k, respectively."

"The release points to softer hiring momentum ahead of Friday's official jobs report, although ADP has been a poor guide historically to the BLS private payrolls estimate."

"On the wires, Fed's Waller (voter) is expected to speak. In July, Waller mentioned that if core inflation was "hot", FOMC would need to consider tightening policy in the near-term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that a sharp USD/JPY move briefly weighed on the Dollar, but only Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar held gains. With US ISM services at 54.1 expected and September Fed hike odds only slightly lower, Pesole still prefers Dollar upside, supported by front-end rates and higher energy prices.

Fed risks keep Dollar supported

"A sharp jump in the yen yesterday, potentially due to another intervention, had a knock-on negative impact on the dollar across the board. But towards the end of the session, only currencies backed by positive domestic stories (AUD, CAD) had hung onto gains, with the move fading elsewhere."

"On the data side, ADP payrolls came in at 38k, leaving few marks. Market conviction on a September hike decreased slightly yesterday, with pricing declining from 18bp to 15bp, but that was likely due to the oil rally stalling."

"Today, the ISM services report is in focus, and expected to flatten at 54.1. The bar to drive the Fed away from a September hike looks fairly high, especially for second-tier data."

"We retain a preference for the upside in the dollar, as front-end rates and higher energy prices both point up."

"The main risk remains that higher back-end yields can prompt more interventionism by the Treasury and a revamp of the debasement trade."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CAD may fall toward the descending channel bottom at 1.3640.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers at 40.7, indicating persistent selling pressure.
• The immediate barrier is the nine-day EMA at 1.3856.

USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive day. trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned within the descending channel pattern, signalling a bearish bias.

The USD/CAD is keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA sits just above price, reinforcing immediate topside pressure, while the longer EMA defines a broader cap on recovery attempts. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.7 stays in mildly negative territory, hinting that selling pressure persists but without reaching oversold extremes.

The USD/CAD pair may navigate the region around the descending channel bottom at 1.3640. A break below the channel would open the doors for the pair to navigate the region around 1.3481, the lowest since October 2024.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3856, followed by the descending channel top near the 50-day EMA of 1.3941. A break above this confluence resistance zone would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the nearly 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.

Williams flags strong economy behind higher yields, keeps Fed focus on 2% inflation

Fed's Williams delivers a slightly more hawkish-than-usual tone, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score marginally above the 5.9/10 historical average, as rising yields are framed as a function of a strong economy and robust outlook rather than worsening inflation expectations. The emphasis that tariffs and Middle East conflict are pushing inflation above target, alongside a solid labor market and strong investment demand, is balanced by reassurance that inflation expectations are contained and the trend is toward lower inflation, keeping the policy narrative anchored around achieving 2% inflation in the foreseeable future. Overall, the message supports the view that the Fed can stay data-dependent while tolerating tighter financial conditions driven by growth rather than inflation fears.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.42 points to 127.44, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite the speech remaining firmly in hawkish territory above the 100 neutral line. This configuration suggests that, relative to the established baseline, markets still see the Fed as leaning toward tighter policy, but Williams' acknowledgment of easing inflation trends tempers expectations for additional aggressive action even as the Dollar stays supported by strong-growth-driven yield dynamics.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid notes that US equities stabilised after three consecutive declines, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.46% as strength in the Magnificent Seven, particularly Nvidia and Meta, supported the market. European equities remained softer, while Asian stocks and US and European futures pointed to a more positive tone.

US stocks bounce as mega-cap tech leads gains

"With that in mind, US equities finally stabilised yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.46%) recovering after 3 consecutive declines. That was lifted by a decent rally for the Mag 7 (+0.76%) which in turn were lifted by Nvidia (+3.21%) and Meta (+2.47%)."

"But it was a different story in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (-0.24%) hit a five-week low, alongside declines for the DAX (-0.50%), the CAC 40 (-0.26%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.30%)."

"In Asia, sentiment is more positive with the KOSPI (+1.52%) leading gains, with technology names benefiting from the positive read-through from Broadcom’s aggressive outlook for chip sales overnight."

"This offset a slightly tepid current quarter for the US chipmaker. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.34%), CSI 300 (+0.48%), Shanghai Composite (+0.42%), and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.43%) are all edging higher."

"US and European futures are all up less than a tenth of a percent."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CHF retreats below 0.8100 on Thursday after hitting a monthly high of 0.8156 on Wednesday.
• Swiss GDP data shows that the economy grew at its fastest pace in five years in Q2.
• Swiss inflation accelerated to a 0.8% year-on-year growth in July, easing concerns about deflation.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) accelerated its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday’s early European session, as Swiss inflation and economic growth data beat expectations. The USD/CHF pair has dropped to session lows below 0.8100 after hitting fresh monthly highs at 0.8156 on Wednesday.

Data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs released earlier on Thursday revealed that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 1.9% pace in the second quarter, posting the strongest performance in five years. The market consensus had anticipated a 1.6% rise, following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in the first quarter. Yearly GDP growth jumped to 2.8% from 0.5% in the first three months of the year.

Previously, August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Swiss Federal Statistics Office showed that inflation accelerated to 0.4% in August, after a 0.1% contraction in July, beating expectations of a flat reading.

Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 0.8%, their fastest growth in two years, twice as much as July’s 0.4% and significantly above market expectations of a 0.5% reading.

US Employment figures fall short of expectations

In the US, the ADP Employment Change report, released on Wednesday, disappointed. ADP data showed a mere 38K increase in net private employment in August, below the 44K expected by the market and the weakest reading in the last seven months.

Apart from that, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams affirmed that rising bond yields are due to a solid economy, rather than to inflation fears, and that the central bank is still collecting data to decide on interest rates. Laterr on Thursday, the focus will be on Board member Christopher Waller’s speech, who is likely to offer a more hawkish view.