Forex News
Societe Generale analysts highlight that USD/KRW formed an interim low near 1320 and has since rebounded within a narrow base. The upper boundary of this range and the 50-day moving average around 1349/1353 are flagged as key resistance. A sustained move above would confirm a larger recovery, while failure to hold recent lows could see the broader downtrend resume.
Recovery hinges on break of 1353
"USD/KRW carved out an interim low near 1320 last month and has staged a modest rebound since then."
"The pair appears to be evolving within a narrow base."
"The upper boundary of this range, along with the 50-DMA at 1349/1353, could act as an important resistance zone."
"A break above this hurdle would be crucial to confirm a larger recovery."
"Conversely, if the pair fails to defend the recent low near 1330, the broader downtrend may resume."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank’s FX team reports the Euro slightly lower versus the Dollar, as ECB officials keep a hawkish stance with December tightening still priced. Despite softer Oil, European energy concerns persist. Technically, resilient support near 1.11 has underpinned a rebound, and the bank expects EUR/USD to gravitate toward the 1.1275 range ceiling over the coming week.
Support near 1.11 underpins rebound
"The EUR is modestly lower on the session in quiet trade. ECB GC member Radev commented that the October rate pause does not mean that tightening is over, keeping the door open for a December hike. Dec OIS are pricing in 22bps of tightening risk."
"Despite the drop in crude oil prices this week, the European energy focus remains on natgas/power where prices have eased but remain significantly above even the most pessimistic ECB forecasts. "
"Meanwhile, France reported its September YTD budget balance of EUR159.2bn, in line with expectations."
"Neutral – Resilient EUR support in the low 1.11 zone in recent weeks provided the springboard for a solid, short-term EUR rebound. With the range base holding, we still think that spot could/should gravitate back towards the range ceiling around 1.1275 in the next week or so."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar (USD) has navigated a vacillating range on Tuesday, broadly in line with the rest of the FX galaxy, in a context of steady caution ahead of the US Midterm elections, upcoming key US data releases and steady uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has traded in a consolidative range just below the key 102.00 hurdle, up modestly for the day while reversing the previous day’s pullback. The usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due on November 4, seconded by the ADP Employment Change report, Balance of Trade results, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles.
EUR/USD has charted a marginal advance, while a convincing surpass of the key 1.1200 barrier still remains elusive. The final S&P Global Services PMI in the EMU and Germany is due, followed by the preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro bloc.
GBP/USD has further extended its multi-day advance, reclaiming the area above the 1.3400 yardstick on Tuesday. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be the only data release across the Channel.
USD/JPY has clinched multi-day tops, flirting at the same time with its key 200-day SMA near 158.60. Next on tap on the Japanese docket will be the Monetary Base figures.
AUD/USD has come under renewed and strong downside pressure, revisiting the area of two-week lows near 0.6960 after the RBA’s rate hike failed to ignite fresh bullish momentum. The Household Spending prints are next on tap in Oz.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have weakened further, approaching the $93.00 mark per barrel following speculation that a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran conflict could be shaping up.
Gold has traded on the back foot, once again piercing the $3,900 mark per troy ounce while partially fading Monday’s bullish move. The precious metal’s bearish price action has come on the back of persistent bets for further Fed rate hikes and increasing caution prior to the US Midterm election results.
On Tuesday, Olaf Sleijpen, President of De Nederlandsche Bank and a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, said that “the Iran shock is more persistent than earlier thought,” but noted that the central bank is not seeing “second-round effects yet.”
Sleijpen added that “the advance in energy risks has knock-on inflation effects,” and that tightening is slowing the European Union economy.
Key highlights:
The Iran shock is more persistent than earlier thought
We don't really see second-round effects yet
The advance in energy risks has knock-on inflation effects
Tightening is slowing Europe's economy
Problems in France must be solved in Paris
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- Gold slips to around $3,900 amid renewed Middle East uncertainty.
- US 10-year Treasury yields climb four basis points to 4.954%.
- December Fed hike odds rise to 79%, adding more pressure on bullion.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Oil prices trimming their earlier losses, boosting the US Dollar's haven appeal due to their positive correlation. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,926, down 0.45%.
XAU/USD retreats as Oil recovers and stronger US data and high Treasury yields pressure bullion
The uncertain outcome of the US-Iran conflict is weighing on Gold, given its current negative correlation with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark. Mixed headlines revealed that Israeli intelligence shared that Iran is considering the use of chemical weapons, according to the New York Times.
Earlier, headlines reported that Washington and Tehran were close to a deal, though Iran denied those claims, according to the IRIB news agency.
Data in the US showed that job vacancies rose, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September. Openings rose from 7.19 million to 7.5 million, up 4.5% from the previous month. The report showed that the hire rate was 3.4%, up from 3.3%, while total separations were unchanged at 3.3%.
Other data showed that Factory Orders improved from 0.3% MoM in the prior month to 1.8% MoM in September, the US Census Bureau reported.
Given the backdrop, the Greenback recovered some ground after the US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a daily low of 101.62. The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against six peers, is nearly unchanged at 101.78.
Along with the US Dollar, bullion prices are diving amid the rise of US Treasury yields, with the 10-year T-note up 4 basis points at 4.954%.
Of note, XAU/USD remains under bearish pressure as traders increased the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December to 79% from 74% a day earlier, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
The World Gold Council reduced its forecast for Gold investment growth to 200 metric tons from 400, citing weaker demand for bars and coins, but raised its estimate for central bank purchases.
Commodity traders are watching the US midterm elections, with prediction sites like Polymarket indicating that Democrats could recapture the House majority, with odds near 95%. For the US Senate, the chances are near 73%, which would complete the Dems' sweep.
Aside from this, the ADP Employment Change report is eyed on Wednesday, as is the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold fails to gain traction, retreats towards $3,900
After Monday’s gains, XAU/USD is retreating but has failed to register a lower low, indicating sideways action. However, momentum is edging lower into bearish territory as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This suggests that further downside is seen in the near term.
If Gold dives below $3,900, this paves the way to challenge the October 30 year-to-date low of $3,879, followed by the April 22, 2025, daily high, turned into support at $3,500.
On the other hand, if buyers reclaim $4,000, this paves the way to challenge a crucial resistance trendline near $4,050-$4,070, ahead of $4,100.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
On Tuesday, the President of the Bundesbank and Governing Council member of the European Central Bank (ECB), Joachim Nagel, said that an ECB rate increase in December “is very likely to be necessary.”
Nagel added that inflationary pressure is “higher than expected in September,” deteriorating the deflationary scenario, while adding that the ECB can “and must prevent an energy price spike from causing broad-based inflation.”
Key highlight:
A rate hike in December is very likely to be necessary
Inflationary pressure is higher than expected in September; approaching adverse scenario
We can and must prevent an energy price spike from causing broad-based inflation
I am confident that France will get a grip on its budget issues
This isn't a task for monetary policy
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.08% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.02% | 0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.06% | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.40% | 0.03% | 0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.53% | 0.14% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.38% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.46% | -0.53% | -0.39% | -0.09% | -0.43% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.39% | 0.31% | -0.04% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | -0.40% | -0.45% | 0.09% | -0.31% | -0.35% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.43% | 0.04% | 0.35% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.31% | -0.32% | -0.38% | 0.14% | -0.25% | 0.07% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes USD/SGD as range-bound, trading two-way in subdued fashion, driven by US Treasury yields, USD moves and RMB sentiment. Strong PMI data are unlikely to change MAS policy after October’s decision to maintain the appreciation stance. With S$NEER in the upper half of its band, SGD outperformance may be limited unless the Dollar weakens substantially.
Range-bound with external drivers
"USD/SGD continued to trade two-way in subdued fashion, taking cues from opposing forces of US Treasury yields, USD and RMB. On domestic data, manufacturing PMI eased to 51.4 in October from 51.7 previously, while electronics PMI moderated to 52.5 from 52.9."
"Both readings remain comfortably in expansionary territory, with electronics new export orders rose to 53.2, their highest since May 2018, pointing to sustained underlying demand despite recent concerns surrounding the AI investment cycle."
"For SGD, the latest PMI readings are unlikely to materially alter MAS policy expectations, particularly following October’s decision to maintain the prevailing appreciation stance. We retain our constructive medium-term SGD outlook, although near-term direction remains largely dependent on broader USD movements, US Treasury yields and RMB sentiment."
"With S$NEER already trading in the upper half of its policy band, scope for SGD outperformance against regional peers may remain limited unless the USD weakens more substantially. This week’s US midterm elections and US labour-market data will be important for near-term direction."
"USD/SGD last at 1.2790 levels. Daily momentum is not indicating a clear bias while decline in RSI moderated. Two-way trades likely for now. Support at 1.2760 (50 DMA), 1.2740 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 1.2810 (100 DMA), 1.2850 levels (38.2% fibo)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja highlights that Indonesia’s trade surplus stayed sizeable at USD 3.36bn in September, with exports up 11.9% year-on-year and imports rising 18.4%. He notes resilient manufacturing and commodity exports, but faster import growth tied to domestic demand and investment. The report argues this pattern points toward a wider current account deficit and a more volatile external backdrop over the medium term.
Trade buffers seen moderating ahead
"While the recent trade surpluses are encouraging, they do not signal a return to the exceptionally large and persistent surpluses seen during 2021–2025."
"However, the simultaneous acceleration in imports reflects strengthening domestic demand and points to a gradual moderation in external surpluses going forward."
"While recent trade outcomes point to a more balanced external position, the underlying trend continues to suggest a gradual narrowing of Indonesia's external buffers as domestic demand improves and investment-related imports rise."
"Consequently, Indonesia's current account balance is likely to remain in deficit over the coming quarters."
"The trend remains consistent with an expectation of a wider current account deficit and a more volatile external environment over the medium term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD rebounds as the Canadian Dollar gives up earlier gains amid volatile Oil prices.
- BoC Governor Tiff Macklem signals further rate hikes may be needed as inflation risks persist.
- Stronger US jobs data support the US Dollar, while traders await Canadian and US employment reports on Friday.
USD/CAD regains ground on Tuesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) surrenders earlier gains amid a firmer US Dollar (USD) and swings in Oil prices. Traders also assess hawkish remarks from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3993, virtually unchanged after recovering from an intraday low of 1.3950.
Canada is a major crude exporter, leaving the Loonie sensitive to Oil price movements. Crude rose earlier on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, before falling on unconfirmed reports that Washington and Tehran have made concessions over Iran’s nuclear program and frozen funds. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has since recovered some ground and trades flat around $95 a barrel.
BoC Governor Macklem said “further rate hikes may be needed,” but stressed that future decisions would be taken “meeting by meeting” amid elevated uncertainty during his parliamentary appearance. He noted that higher Oil prices and refinery margins are raising costs for consumers and businesses, with more of those costs expected to feed into inflation over the coming year.
Macklem said CPI inflation is expected to rise to “3.5% by year-end,” remain “at or above 3% through much of 2027,” and return close to the BoC’s 2% target by mid-2028.
Across the border, the US Dollar holds its ground amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and a hawkish Fed outlook. Stronger-than-expected US jobs data offered support to the Greenback, although traders remain reluctant to take aggressive positions amid the US midterm elections.
JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.523 million in September from 7.19 million, exceeding forecasts of 7.13 million. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against six major peers, trades flat around 101.80, recovering from an intraday low of 101.63.
Attention now turns to Friday’s employment reports from both countries. Canada’s Labour Force Survey and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) could shape expectations for the BoC and Fed’s next moves as traders assess the prospect of further rate hikes in December.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.37% | 0.02% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | -0.38% | -0.37% | -0.43% | -0.36% | -0.01% | -0.34% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.36% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.42% | 0.01% | -0.36% | -0.32% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.34% | -0.02% | 0.32% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | -0.31% | -0.36% | 0.06% | -0.30% | 0.06% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China to enter Q4 at a steady pace, with October data showing a seasonal slowdown in manufacturing and trade but modest improvement in investment and retail sales. They forecast CPI inflation below 1% year-on-year, a narrower trade surplus, and seasonal weakness in CNY loan growth alongside stronger corporate bond financing.
Seasonal slowdown with steady Q4 pace
"China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below market consensus but consistent with seasonal patterns."
"We expect the 2Y CAGR of industrial production (IP) to have moderated to 5.1% after a jump in September."
"Resilient external demand for AI-related products and a favourable base effect likely supported export growth of over 30% y/y."
"We expect fixed asset investment (FAI) to have improved as policy funding continued to be deployed."
"CPI inflation likely remained at 0.9% y/y as steeper food deflation offset higher energy inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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