Forex News
- The Euro underperforms its peers amid revival of French fiscal concerns.
- The sell-off in French bonds resumes after a pause on Tuesday.
- Investors await the FOMC minutes of the September policy meeting.
The Euro (EUR) comes under pressure against its peers again on Wednesday after a relief recovery the previous day. In the European trade, the major currency is down 0.63% at around 1.1188 against the US Dollar.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.63% | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.37% | 0.42% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.63% | -0.19% | -0.46% | -0.49% | -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.60% | |
| GBP | -0.44% | 0.19% | -0.27% | -0.30% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | 0.46% | 0.27% | -0.03% | 0.21% | 0.24% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.49% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.28% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | 0.26% | 0.07% | -0.21% | -0.23% | 0.05% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | 0.21% | 0.02% | -0.24% | -0.28% | -0.05% | -0.36% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.60% | 0.39% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.32% | 0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The resumption of sell-off French government-backed securities has revived fears of wider spreads between bond yields from France and the rest of the Eurozone, weighing on the Euro. 10-year French bond yields surge 2.56% to near 4.91%, clawing back Tuesday’s entire downside move.
French bonds witnessed strong buying interest on Tuesday after presidential candidate Marine Le Pen proposed an increase in spending cuts to €140 billion, from €125 billion. This led to France’s 10-year yield declining approximately 11 basis points (bps) on Tuesday.
However, financial markets seem to be doubting that whether the minority government would be able to get the budget cuts passed in the Parliament without providing special concessions.
The French Higher Committee for Public Finance, also known as French fiscal watchdog, said last week that government's draft 2027 budget is very “optimistic”. The comments from the fiscal watchdog came at a time when the government put forward the €125 billion spending cut plan.
Meanwhile, the upbeat US Dollar is also weighing on the major currency pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost 0.5% higher at around 102.34.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1190, extending its decline and keeping a clear bearish near-term bias as it holds well beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1372. The Moving Average Exponential (20, close, 0) now acts as immediate overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 22 reinforces a deeply oversold momentum backdrop that hints at persistent selling pressure despite the stretched conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 1.1372, and a sustained recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone. With no nearby structural supports from the provided dataset below the market, traders are likely to treat the recent low zone around 1.1190 as a provisional pivot, watching whether oversold RSI readings can trigger a corrective bounce or whether sellers press for fresh lows instead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Societe Generale’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) strategy team expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% today, with Governor Glapiński likely to flag inflation risks and prepare markets for a November hike. They see a hawkish stance offering some Polish Zloty (PLN) support but still expect EUR/PLN to trade above 4.35 given geopolitical and external risks, after the pair extended gains toward 4.40/4.41 resistance.
Zloty supported but risks linger
"EUR/PLN has extended its up move after recently crossing the July/August peaks at 4.34. The pair is gradually heading towards the upper boundary of a multi-month ascending channel at 4.40/4.41, which could act as an interim resistance zone."
"Signals of a deep pullback are not yet visible, the August peak at 4.34 may serve as a key support. Only a break below this would denote the risk of a deeper decline."
"A move above 4.40/4.41 could trigger a larger uptrend towards the next projections at 4.45 and 4.48."
"In CEE, we expect the NBP to stay on hold at 3.75% this afternoon. Inflation accelerated above the upper band of the NBP tolerance band at 4% in September, though today’s meeting should serve as a bridge towards renewed tightening."
"Tomorrow, Governor Glapiński is likely to signal growing concern over inflation risks and prepare markets for a hike in November, when updated staff forecasts will be released. While a hawkish stance could provide some support to the zloty, EUR/PLN is likely to remain above 4.35 amid persistent geopolitical and external risks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF appreciates above 0.8300 as the US Dollar appreciates across the board.
- A mild risk appetite amid higher Oil prices has provided a fresh boost to the safe-haven USD.
- Investors are reluctant of selling the Greenback ahead of the release of the Fed minutes.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, retracing the rebound witnessed late last week. The USD/CHF pair has returned above 0.8300, trading at 0.8323 as of writing, amid a firmer US Dollar ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes, and the rebound in Oil prices.
The US central bank hiked for the first time in three years in September, as expected, and Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with an unequivocal hawkish message. Investors ramped up bets of back-to-back rate hikes following the meeting, but the soft inflation and employment reports released last week have curbed those hopes. Markets, however, remain confident that the bank will hike rates again in December and at least one more time in early 2027.
Rising Oil prices are weighing on risk appetite
Beyond that, Brent Oil prices have appreciated nearly $4 from Tuesday’s lows, hitting levels above the key $100, following news about a new wave of attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Higher Oil prices pose a challenge for crude-importing countries such as Switzerland and add pressure on the Swissie.
In Switzerland, data from the Swiss National Bank released earlier in the day revealed that the country’s Foreign Currency reserves remained broadly steady at CHF 770,47 billion in September, from CHF 770 billion in August. The impact of these figures on the Swiss Franc has been minimal.
Strategists at UOB Group observe that the USD/CHF “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365.” In the near term (one to three weeks), the bank expects the pair to remain confined to this broad consolidation band.
Economic Indicator
Foreign Currency Reserves
Foreign Currency Reserves are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by Swiss National Bank and monetary authorities. It provides insight into the SNB's currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc's exchange rate against the euro.
Read more.Last release: Wed Oct 07, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 770.47B
Consensus: -
Previous: 770B
Source: Swiss National Bank
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Oct 07, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
European Central Bank (ECB) official and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Santos Pereira said during the European trading session has ruled out fears of second-round inflation effects. Pereira advised that France should pursue fiscal prudence. Lately, French bonds witnessed massive sell-off amid heightened fiscal concerns.
Comments
Current inflation and core inflation levels are far below those seen during 2022 energy shock.
There are no second-round inflation effects at present.
Other goods prices show no signs of de-anchoring inflation expectations.
France must cut its deficit and debt, pursue reforms and fiscal prudence.
Market reaction
No responsive action is seen in the Euro (EUR), following remarks from ECB’s Pereira. As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.62% to near 1.1190.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Gold (XAU/USD) finds itself pulled in two directions: official-sector demand continues to underpin prices even at elevated levels, while the technical picture has deteriorated after the metal failed to hold above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), leaving key supports exposed.
Central bank appetite shows no sign of fading
ING's commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, points to persistent official-sector buying as the market's structural backbone. World Gold Council data showed central banks remained net buyers in August, adding 39 tonnes and bringing year-to-date purchases to 170 tonnes.
"China led purchases with 20 tonnes, extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months, while Poland and Uzbekistan each added 8 tonnes to their reserves."
The bank stresses that this demand is strategic, not tactical: "Purchases continuing to be driven by longer-term reserve diversification objectives rather than short-term market movements." With emerging-market central banks still accumulating, ING sees official-sector demand "likely to remain an important source of support for the market in the months ahead."
Technicals flash warning as key supports come under pressure
Societe Generale strategists take a far more cautious read. Gold has extended its pullback after struggling to establish itself above the 200-DMA at $4,510/$4,540, and is now "drifting towards the interim projection near $4,095, which could act as a potential support."
The risk skews to the downside from here: "An inability to defend the $4,095 could deepen the downtrend towards $4,000 and the June/July troughs at $3,960/$3,940," the bank notes, flagging that zone as the lower boundary of a multi-month range and a critical support.
Where do the banks agree and diverge?
Both banks see central bank buying as the market's main pillar, but they diverge on direction. ING's structural view suggests resilient official demand limits downside risk, while Societe Generale's chart-driven analysis implies failure at $4,095 would open a slide toward the $3,960-$3,940 area. The reconciliation: physical demand may slow the fall, but it has not stopped the technical breakdown - price action remains the near-term driver.
The takeaway
Central banks are building Gold's floor, but its ceiling has failed. With Societe Generale warning that a break of $4,095 targets $4,000 and the June/July troughs near $3,940, traders should watch that level closely; ING's evidence of persistent official-sector accumulation suggests any dip into support may find patient buyers underneath.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights growing downside risks for the Japanese Yen versus the US Dollar as USD/JPY tests its 200-day moving average near 158.50. He notes that despite some easing in US Dollar momentum after the latest US jobs data, markets still price three further Fed hikes through mid-2027. Japanese fiscal speculation and JGB curve steepening could reinforce yen underperformance.
Yen underperformance and key USD/JPY levels
"The USD/JPY high today of 158.51 is just at the 200-day moving average level and if breached would certainly signal scope for further gains over the short-term."
"Given the dots profile, we will likely see minutes that likely broadly endorse current market pricing for rate hikes ahead and that should mean the support for the US dollar is maintained for now."
"Until recently, the yen was pretty much matching the performance of the US dollar against other G10 currencies, but the yen is now starting to underperform."
"However, Yomiuri is today reporting that the government is considering another supplementary budget to be compiled by November and passed through parliament by year-end."
"A break of the 200-day moving average will open up the potential for renewed momentum in USD/JPY with the potential for a full retracement back to the 160-level from early in September and to levels where intervention speculation would likely resume."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that the US Dollar's (USD) structural support from the US technology and AI sectors remains intact, but they are more cautious on further near-term USD gains. Softer labour market data, a more patient Federal Reserve (Fed) stance and already tight financial conditions could see markets reassess aggressive Fed hike expectations, potentially reducing support for the USD.
Structural support but limited upside
"We continue to expect the USD to remain supported by the US economy’s strong exposure to the technology and AI sectors, which have helped sustain growth and productivity. However, after the recent rally, we are becoming more cautious on the scope for further near-term USD gains."
"Recent Fed communication has pointed to a more patient and data-dependent approach to further tightening, even as policymakers remain focused on inflation. Markets are still pricing slightly more than three Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months, which appears aggressive given the emerging signs of labour market moderation."
"If upcoming inflation data confirm that underlying price pressures remain contained, investors may begin to scale back expectations for additional Fed tightening. That could remove an important source of support for the USD."
"Moreover, higher long-term Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions significantly, reducing the need for the Fed to do all the heavy lifting through policy rates. With financial conditions doing more of the tightening work, the hurdle for further significant Fed hikes remains high."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAU/USD retraces previous gains and drifts closer to two-month lows near $4,100.
- The US Dollar firmed up on Wednesday as investors brace for the release of the FOMC's meeting minutes.
- Higher Oil prices, with Brent crude back above $100 are providing additional support to the USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) retraces Tuesday’s gains on Wednesday and resumes its broader bearish trend, with the US Dollar (USD) appreciating across the board, as investors brace for the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The XAU/USD pair trades below $4,120 after retreating from the $4,180 area on Tuesday, drifting closer to the two-month low at $4,104.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six majors, has retraced previous losses as investors grow wary of selling the USD ahead of the Fed minutes’ release. Beyond that, Oil prices have bounced up amid news of fresh tensions in the Middle East, setting some of the main US Dollar peers, namely the Euro, under pressure.
The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points, bringing the fed funds rate to the 3.75%-4% range at the September meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with an unequivocal hawkish message. Hopes of another interest rate hike in October, however, have faded amid soft inflation and employment reports and mixed comments by policymakers. That said, markets remain confident that the bank will hike rates again in December and at least one more time in early 2027.
Technical Analysis: Support around $4,100 likely to be tested again
XAU/USD trades at $4,119, maintaining a bearish near-term bias and holding under a descending trendline resistance from mid-August highs. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts remain negative, with the Relative Strength Index (14) below 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory, both hinting at persistent downside pressure.
A breach of the mid-term lows at $4,104 clears the path towards the late July and early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) low, at $3,941.
Bulls, on the other hand, should confirm above the mentioned trendline resistance, now around $4,200, and the top of the last two weeks' trading range, at $4,227 to gain confidence. Such a move would shift the focus toward the September 25 high, around $4,310, and the September 11 and 18 highs past $4,400.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Societe Generale notes USD/SEK broke out of a large base in September, extending its rebound and recently posting an interim high near 10.10 before a brief pullback. The bank highlights the 9.83/9.79 area as an important support zone whose defence could see the uptrend resume, with upside projections at 10.23 and 10.47 if the pair pushes beyond 10.10.
Swedish krona under technical pressure
"USD/SEK broke out of a large base in September, resulting in an extension of its rebound."
"The pair recently carved out an interim high near 10.10 and is now undergoing a brief pullback."
"The upper boundary of the previous consolidation, around 9.83/9.79, could act as an important support zone."
"Defence of this may lead to a continuation of the uptrend."
"Beyond 10.10, the next projections are located at 10.23 and 10.47."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
