Forex News
- EUR/USD consolidates during the Asian session as traders reassess Fed and ECB outlook.
- Hormuz risks offer some support to the safe-haven USD and cap the upside for spot prices.
- Traders look to second-tier Eurozone data and the US ISM Services PMI for some impetus.
The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band below mid-1.1400s during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain within striking distance of a nearly two-week high, touched last Thursday, amid mixed fundamental cues.
Despite a fragile US-Iran interim agreement, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Iran seeks to tighten control over the strategic waterway. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and offers some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.
The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant amid reduced bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of rather unimpressive US jobs data last week. In fact, the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 57K new jobs in June, compared to the 110K expected.
Adding to this, the previous month's reading was revised down from 172K to 129K, while the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.2% in June. This comes on top of easing inflation fears in the face of the recent slump in Crude Oil prices and shifted market expectations from one to two Fed rate increases in 2026 to between zero and one hike.
This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the USD and should limit the downside for the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, softer Eurozone inflation data forced investors to reduce bets on further European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, warranting caution for aggressive bulls.
Monday's economic docket features German Factory Orders, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales. Later during the early North American session, the release of the US ISM Services PMI, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, could provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- AUD/USD remains subdued as the Australian Dollar weakens following TD-MI Inflation Gauge data.
- Major Australian banks expect further RBA rate hikes, noting June minutes showed intense concern over persistent inflation.
- The US Dollar remains strong as financial markets continue to price in multiple Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year.
AUD/USD declines after two days of gains, trading around 0.6930 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair loses ground following the release of TD-MI Inflation Gauge data, which came in at -0.4% month-over-month, against the -0.3% prior.
Traders are weighing hawkish interpretations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June Meeting Minutes released last week. Major Australian banks noted that the RBA remains highly concerned about sticky inflation. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that the minutes highlighted persistent excess demand and capacity constraints, while ANZ echoed this view, warning that the minutes reinforce the distinct risk of another RBA rate hike ahead.
The US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, buoyed by market expectations of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes later this year. This comes despite easing global inflation concerns, which have been helped by oil flows normalizing through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The CME FedWatch tool shows financial markets are pricing in a 77.3% chance of interest rate hikes by year-end. Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the Fed’s June policy Meeting Minutes to gain clearer insights into the future path of interest rates.
However, recent US labor data have forced Wall Street to aggressively rethink this hawkish outlook. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed the US economy added a mere 57,000 jobs last month, severely missing the market's forecast of 110,000. While the headline unemployment rate did manage an unexpected drop to 4.2% from May's 4.3%, the dramatic hiring slowdown strongly signals that the broader economy is cooling down.
Amid this shifting backdrop, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh firmly reaffirmed the central bank’s independent commitment to its 2% price stability target. Notably, he also acknowledged that inflation risks and expectations have finally begun to moderate over the past month.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The upcoming week will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors return from the US Independence Day holiday and continue to digest weaker US labor market data. The release of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Initial Jobless Claims will test the US Dollar's (USD) resilience.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades lower near the 100.90 price zone and is set to finish the week with a 0.50% loss. The Greenback will now focus on a relatively light but important United States (US) calendar. Monday will bring the final S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, while Tuesday’s trade balance and Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes will be key. The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, may offer clues on whether policymakers remain committed to a restrictive stance.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.14% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.20% | 0.18% | -0.16% | -0.13% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.22% | 0.20% | -0.16% | -0.09% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.37% | -0.33% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.37% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.30% | -0.07% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.10% | -0.25% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades on a higher note near the 1.1440 level and will likely remain driven by the contrast between softer US labor data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance. Germany and France's trade and industrial data will also be watched for signs of whether the recovery in activity can continue.
GBP/USD rose sharply by more than 1% this week, trading near 1.3350 and is poised to remain sensitive to broader USD direction. If the FOMC Minutes show concern over the labor market, the pair may find support.
USD/JPY trades near the 161.40 level after hitting a 40-year high of 162.84 earlier this week. The Japanese Yen may struggle if the US Dollar keeps rising, but softer US data could limit the pair’s upside if markets price in a less restrictive path for the Fed. Intervention risks may also stay in focus if USD/JPY remains near multi-decade highs.
AUD/USD trades near the 0.6940 price zone and will watch China-related sentiment and the broader USD trend. The Aussie recently found support from stronger Australian PMIs and resilient Chinese services activity.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $68.80 per barrel. The black gold will remain sensitive to supply expectations, geopolitical risks, and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Recent declines in Oil prices back toward pre-war levels have reduced some inflation fears, but any change in supply guidance could quickly revive volatility across energy markets.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades higher near the $4,175 level and may continue to benefit if US yields fall and the Fed minutes strengthen expectations that the central bank may not keep policy restrictive for much longer. However, a stronger US Dollar rebound could limit upside momentum for the precious metal.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, July 6
- Fed Governor Waller
- BoE’s Mann
- ECB’s Schnabel
- ECB President Lagarde
- ECB’s Lane
Tuesday, July 7
- BoE’s Mann
Wednesday, July 8
- RBA’s Hunter
Thursday, July 9
- BoE’s Breeden
- ECB President Lagarde
- ECB’s Cipollone
Friday, July 10
- ECB President Lagarde
- ECB’s Vujčić
Central bank meetings and policy decisions
The main policy decision next week will be the RBNZ Monetary Policy Review and OCR announcement on Wednesday, July 8, with the online media conference also scheduled later that day. The FOMC Minutes from the June 17 meeting will also be released on Wednesday, while the ECB account of its June policy meeting is due on Thursday. The BoE Financial Stability Report and FPC Record will be published on Tuesday. No major interest rate decisions are scheduled from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, RBA, or BoC during the week.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH has seen a slight pickup in downward momentum, but still expects the pair to remain range-bound. The bank now looks for a lower intraday band around 6.7820–6.7940, while its 1–3 week view stays neutral, with USD/CNH likely to trade between 6.7750 and 6.8080.
USD/CNH seen holding defined ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD traded within a range of 6.7911/6.8025 and closed little changed at 6.7948 (+0.05%). Yesterday, we indicated that “the price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 6.7860 and 6.7990.” USD then traded within a range of 6.7840/6.7963 before settling at 6.7884 (-0.09%). There has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 6.7820/6.7940 rather than a sustained decline."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our view from positive to neutral two days ago (01 Jul, spot at 6.7920). We highlighted that the recent USD “strength has come to an end.” We also highlighted that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 6.7750 and 6.8080.” We continue to hold the same view"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD remains bearish despite rebound above 0.5700 figure.
- RSI rises below 50, signaling buyers lack full control.
- Break above 0.5750 exposes 0.5800 and key SMA cluster.
The Kiwi Dollar clears the 0.5700 figure on Friday, clings to gains of over 0.22% against the Greenback after hitting a daily low of 0.5689. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD trades at 0.5709.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The NZD/USD remains technically bearish, even though interest rate probabilities suggest the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise rates at least twice. However, in the short term, the leg-up would test an support-trendline-turned resistance at around 0.5750.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising, suggesting buyers are gaining traction, but it remains below the 50-neutral level. Hence, the overall trend is downwards.
For a bullish reversal, the NZD/USD must clear 0.5750, followed by the 0.5800 mark. Above this level, the next resistance is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5821, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.5831, and then the 100-day SMA at 0.5851. Once those levels are cleared, the next resistance is the 0.5900 milestone.
On the flipside, if NZD/USD tumbles below the current low of the day (LOD) at 0.5689, the next support is at 0.5650, followed by 0.5600.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Technical outlook
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Commerzbank highlights that strong Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs underpin a constructive growth outlook, with Q2 GDP expected to exceed Q1’s 6% expansion. Against this backdrop, USD/SGD has eased slightly but remains near this year’s highs. The bank expects the pair to consolidate in a defined range rather than trend strongly in the near term.
Range-bound outlook for USD/SGD
"Looking ahead, the manufacturing outlook remains constructive."
"We will get the advance Q2 GDP report in the next week or so."
"It is expected to post a strong performance and even exceed Q1’s 6% yoy expansion, supported by a strong manufacturing sector and continued firm domestic demand."
"Growth this year is likely to exceed the upper end of the government's 2-4% forecast, and the official forecast may be revised up when the final Q2 report is released around August."
"For USD/SGD, it was slightly lower yesterday by around 30 pips to 1.2930. It is holding around this year's high, and we look for consolidation in the near term between 1.28 and 1.30."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale notes that stronger-than-expected China PMI data suggest slow but steady growth, reducing urgency for the PBoC to ease policy. The bank highlights that USD/CNY has fallen back below its 50-day moving average as Yuan strength reflects robust exports supported by the global AI boom. The report also points to a higher trade-weighted CEFTS RMB Index and firmer 10y CGB yields.
Yuan strength backed by exports
"China PMI signals slow growth but less urgency for the PBoC to ease: official manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 50.3 in June from 50.0 while non-manufacturing PMI surprisingly rose to 50.2 from 50.1."
"The yuan bulls are firmly in control with USD/CNY back below 6.7938 (50dma) following US NFP miss yesterday. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI expanded for a seventh straight month in June."
"The yuan's rise in 1H26 reflects robust exports that was partly powered by the global AI boom. EU's trade chief Maros Sefcovic and China's commerce minister Wang Wentao held discussions in Brussels aimed at resolving trade issues. The trade-weighted CEFTS RMB Index climbed to the highest level since July 2022."
"Domestically the spotlight will shift to the Politburo meeting later this month. The NDRC has tightened oversight of fundraising, urging banks to avoid underwriting high-yield yuan and USD bonds. "
"The goal is to cut down on higher cost borrowing and excessive debt financing, particularly among the local government financial vehicles. The 10y CGB yield rose 3bp this week to 1.75%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY trims losses on Friday after hitting a two-week low.
- The Greenback regained some demand as investors reassessed the impact of Thursday’s weak US labor data and adjusted positions after the initial selloff.
- The Yen found limited support from Japan’s stronger Services PMI, which rose to 52.2 in June.
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains on Friday amid thin trading due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US Dollar (USD) stabilizes against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after a sharp decline on Thursday following softer-than-expected United States (US) labor market data. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at 161.30 after falling to a two-week low of 160.49 earlier in the Asian session.
The Greenback weakened on Thursday after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report missed expectations, signaling that the labor market is cooling. Softer job creation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have less room to keep interest rates restrictive for longer, weighing on US Treasury yields. However, the US Dollar later bounced back as traders adjusted positions after the initial selloff, helping USD/JPY regain traction.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.29. The pair hovers around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 161.29, leaving the near-term bias neutral as price consolidates between nearby levels. The 20-period SMA at 161.91 stands above current price and acts as dynamic resistance, suggesting upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing toward the mid-40s hints at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the horizontal barrier near 161.39, ahead of the 20-period SMA cluster around 161.91. On the downside, first support is seen at 161.12, with additional cushions at 160.90 and 160.79, where prior horizontal floors and the broader trend base converge, and a sustained break below these levels would tilt the bias more decisively in favor of sellers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
