Forex News
- EUR/USD edges higher on Friday as US-Iran peace deal hopes undermined the safe-haven USD.
- The uptick lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await the release of the key US NFP report.
- The mixed technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for any further move up.
The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild positive bias around the 1.1730-1.1735 region during the Asian session on Friday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's modest slide. The uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction as the uncertainty over a US-Iran peace deal acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and caps spot prices as traders keenly await the closely-watched US employment details.
The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report might influence market expectations about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook and drive the USD demand. In the meantime, renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on the latest optimism over the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict and underpin the USD's reserve currency status. This, in turn, is holding back the EUR/USD bulls from placing fresh bets.
The recent move up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been confined to an ascending channel. Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair is holding above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reaffirming a constructive near-term bias while the bullish structure remains intact. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 50, hinting at consolidative rather than overextended conditions.
Adding to this, the latest Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading has slipped marginally negative, which signals waning upside momentum even as price action stays underpinned by trend support. Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to confront initial resistance aligned with the upper boundary of the trend channel near 1.1802. A decisive break above would open the way for a stronger bullish extension.
On the downside, immediate support is found at the recent price pivot around 1.1730, followed by the lower parallel boundary at 1.1693. A sustained drop through that zone would expose the 200-period SMA at 1.1670 as the next key layer of demand and risk a deeper corrective phase inside the channel structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,359.29 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 14,283.83 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 167,484.00 per tola from INR 166,603.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,359.29 |
10 Grams | 143,591.90 |
Tola | 167,484.00 |
Troy Ounce | 446,624.20 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/CHF stays firm as the US Dollar holds steady amid caution following US strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
- Middle East tensions eased after Israel and Iran separately signaled a temporary pause in hostilities.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to rise by 62K in April, following a 178K increase in March.
USD/CHF holds gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.7810 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm following modest gains recorded in the previous session.
Traders remain cautious after the US military carried out strikes on the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command confirmed that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks against USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason while the guided-missile destroyers were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to the official statement, CENTCOM described the Iranian action as unprovoked and said US forces responded under their right to self-defense.
However, renewed tensions in the Middle East eased after separate comments from Israel and Iran indicated that hostilities had temporarily subsided. US President Donald Trump also said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place. A senior US official told Fox News that the recent strikes do not represent a restart of the war and should not be viewed as the end of the current ceasefire arrangement.
The Trump administration is awaiting Iran’s reply to a proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the nearly 10-week conflict. However, tensions remain elevated across the Persian Gulf and Lebanon. Reports suggest that Tehran is expected to send its response through Pakistan within the next two days.
Later in the day, market participants will monitor Switzerland’s SECO Consumer Climate (3m) data for Q2. Investors will also turn their attention to the US April employment report, which is expected to show that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 62K jobs in April, down from 178K in March, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- AUD/JPY gains ground near 113.20 in Friday’s early European session.
- The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the key 100-day EMA, with modest bullish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 113.65; the initial support level to watch is 112.50.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 113.20 during the early European session on Friday. A potential truce between the United States (US) and Iran improves risk sentiment, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US President Donald Trump administration has been waiting for Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.
On the other hand, fears of further interventions from Japanese authorities might help limit the JPY’s losses. Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May after having conducted Japanese Yen-buying operations on April 30. The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the Bollinger Bands (20) show price consolidating in the upper half of the envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, hinting that upside pressure is moderating but not yet reversing.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day simple moving average near 113.65, ahead of the recent Bollinger upper band peak around 114.75. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 112.50 offers the first line of support. The key contention level to watch is the 100.00 psychological level, with the more important dynamic floor coming in at the 100-day EMA around 109.65, where a break would be needed to undermine the prevailing bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Asian stock markets come under pressure as US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty revives.
- US President Trump confirms that a ceasefire with Iran is still intact.
- Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the interest rate outlook.
Asian equity markets face selling pressure on Friday as risks over the sustainability of the month-long fragile ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran have increased, following renewed clashes between both nations around the Strait of Hormuz.
During the press time, Nikkei 225 is down 0.66% to near 62,440, Shanghai slumps over 0.4% at around 4,160, and Hang Seng plunges 1.3% to near 26,280.
On Thursday, three US Navy destroyers reportedly intercepted Iranian strikes while transiting the strategic waterway and carried out retaliatory attacks, which prompted fears of renewed tensions between both nations.
However, US President Donald Trump confirmed that a ceasefire with Iran is still intact, while warning that attacks would be obvious if the temporary truce were over, CNN reported.
Meanwhile, Iran is still reviewing the US one-page memorandum of understanding (MoU), which is a 14-point peace plan, and has not delivered any breakthrough response. The one-page MoU restricts Tehran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions for a longer period and calls for the immediate reopening of the Hormuz.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. Investors will closely monitor the data to get fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- EUR/JPY may fall toward the 11-week low around 181.87.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 41.75, signaling persistent downside pressure.
- The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 184.62.
EUR/JPY steadies after posting a little gain in the previous trading day, hovering around 184.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The EUR/JPY cross extends a corrective phase below the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias as dynamic resistance overhead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.75 hovers below the midline, hinting that downside pressure persists but without entering oversold territory, leaving room for further weakness if sellers retain control.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 11-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.
The EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 184.62, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.84. A successful break above the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.02% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | -0.00% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.01% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.04% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.04% | -0.09% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY edges lower to near 156.85 in Friday’s Asian session.
- Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market again during the May holidays.
- The US April employment report will be the highlight on Friday.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 156.85 during the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following another intervention by Japanese authorities. Markets might turn cautious later on Friday ahead of the US April employment report.
Reuters reported on Friday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May after having conducted Japanese yen-buying operations on April 30. The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”
The potential for further interventions could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura said on Thursday that authorities are prepared to respond on all fronts to speculative moves in the foreign exchange market.
All eyes will be on the US employment report for April, which is due on Friday. Market consensus estimates 62,000 new jobs in April. This would be a sharp drop from the 178,000 jobs added in March. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Citing a source familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Friday that Japan’s officials intervened in the foreign exchange market during holidays in early May, after having conducted Japanese Yen-buying operations on April 30.
The source said: “The intervention since the start of May was timed to coincide with the holiday period, when market liquidity was thin.”
Reuters calculated the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) money market data, which suggests that Japan may have spent as much as JPY5 trillion or $32 billion in the period between May 1 and May 6.
Meanwhile, the April 30 intervention may have cost around $35 billion, according to the BoJ data.
Market reaction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) shows little reaction to the above comments, with USD/JPY holding steady at around 156.90, as of writing.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Forex Market News
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