Forex News
- EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1530 with three-week highs, at 1.1559 0on sight.
- US Dollar bulls remain subdued, awaiting US Nonfarm payrolls data.
- German Industrial Production increased in June, but the trade surplus narrowed beyond expectations.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat, a handful of pips below 1.1530 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, following a mild pullback from three-week highs at 1.1560 earlier on the week. The US Dollar is showing a moderately stronger tone although investors remain wary of placing large directional bets, awaiting the release of July's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later on the day.
The market consensus anticipates an 80K increase in net employment in July, although some market experts see chances of another disappointment.
Economists at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement to 65K forecast vs.June's 57K, arguing that July's figures “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual loss of momentum in hiring even as the labour market remains resilient.
Eurozone data fails to support the Euro
In the Eurozone, data released by the German Federal Office of Statistics on Friday revealed that Industrial Production rose 0.2% in June, down from May's 0.7% increase, but above the 0.1% market consensus. At the same time, German Trade Balance data showed that June's surplus narrowed to EUR 15.4 billion from an upwardly revised EUR 19.4 billion surplus in May, well beyond the EUR 17.4 billion surplus expected by the market.
The safe-haven US Dollar drew some support from growing doubts about a peace deal in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during previous sessions. Iranian Fars news agency reported on Thursday that Tehran would be considering a plan to ban Israeli and US vessels from the Strait, an idea which collides with the US will to keep the waterway free of tolls or restrictions of any sort.
Apart from that, the Financial Times, citing sources close to the US Federal Reserve, reported that Chairman Kevin Warsh is ready to hike interest rates as soon as September, if inflation remains persistently high, which provided additional support to the Greenback
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 07, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 80K
Previous: 57K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 07, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.2%
Previous: 4.2%
Source:
The Euro (EUR) has staged a notable recovery from its mid-June lows against the US Dollar (USD), driven in part by financial markets dialing back expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. However, institutional analysts warn that this rebound faces major macroeconomic and technical hurdles. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stepping back from forward guidance, monetary policy has become intensely data-dependent, leaving the US Dollar sensitive to upside inflation and labor market surprises. At the same time, EUR/USD is approaching a formidable cluster of technical resistance, raising questions about whether current gains can be sustained.
Institutional Analysis: Commerzbank vs. UOB Group
To evaluate the forces shaping the pair's near-term trajectory, we highlight the core takeaways from Commerzbank and UOB Group:
- Core Focus & Driver: Commerzbank evaluates the macroeconomic policy outlook, highlighting that data-dependent Fed pricing could easily shift back in favor of US Dollar strength. UOB Group focuses on technical price structure, analyzing the pair's oversold bounce and key chart boundaries.
- Forecast Adjustments & Targets: Commerzbank has downgraded its EUR/USD projection by two cents across its entire forecast horizon due to rising Federal Reserve rate hike risks. UOB Group outlines key upside targets at 1.1622 if resistance clears, with downside support noted at 1.1470 and 1.1445.
- Critical Levels to Watch: Commerzbank zeroes in on US labor market figures (projecting +100k payrolls vs +80k consensus) as a catalyst for policy repricing. UOB Group points to the pivotal 1.1560/1.1565 resistance zone, which aligns with the daily Ichimoku cloud top and a multi-month declining trendline.
Fed data-dependency and rate-hike risks prompt Commerzbank EUR/USD forecast cut
According to Michael Pfister at Commerzbank, the recent rally in EUR/USD reflects a market that may be prematurely pricing out Federal Reserve hawkishness. While year-end tightening expectations dropped from roughly 44 basis points to 33 basis points, Chair Warsh's policy stance relies heavily on incoming economic data rather than explicit guidance. A stronger-than-expected US labor report could quickly reignite bets on further Fed rate increases, strengthening the Greenback and undermining the Euro's recent advance.
"The absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates... If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes... This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week."
Technical rebound confronts formidable Ichimoku cloud resistance
From a technical perspective, Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group observes that EUR/USD's sharp bounce from its mid-June trough of 1.1324 was a natural reaction to deeply oversold weekly momentum indicators. However, for the recovery to extend toward the June peak near 1.1622, buyers must decisively overcome the critical 1.1560/1.1565 resistance band, where the daily Ichimoku cloud top meets a long-term trendline from January.
"While there is scope for EUR/USD to rebound further, it must first surpass the significant resistance at 1.1560/1.1565... Should EUR/USD break and hold above 1.1560/1.1565, it could rise toward 1.1622... Support is at 1.1470, followed by the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1445."
Banks urge caution as macro risks and technical barriers converge
Based on the combined analysis of both financial institutions, the banks project a challenging path ahead for EUR/USD. Commerzbank maintains a structurally lower outlook, cautioning that a potential repricing of Fed rate hike risks threatens to erase the Euro's recent gains and justify its two-cent forecast reduction. Concurrently, UOB Group highlights that while near-term momentum remains positive, the pair must clear technical resistance between 1.1560 and 1.1565 to maintain its trajectory; failing to hold above 1.1445 support would signal that the broader downtrend remains in control.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold extends gains beyond $4,300, on track for a nearly 7% rally this week.
- Some market experts warn about a soft Nonfarm Payrolls reading later on Friday.
- XAU/USD has broken the bearish structure and aims for the $4,380 resistance area.
Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its bullish trend on Friday, after a brief consolidation on Thursday, to reach fresh three-week highs above $4,300, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area. The precious metal is on track for its strongest weekly performance since January, with a nearly 7% gain, although further appreciation is likely to depend on the outcome of July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due later in the day.
The market consensus forecasts a net increase of 80K payrolls, from 57K in June, although analysts from some of the world’s major commercial banks are keeping a cautious view.
Deutsche Bank experts are anticipating a more modest improvement in today’s labour market report, with a “slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously). They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum rather than a sharp deterioration.
Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift
XAU/USD trades at $4,315.19, keeping a constructive near‑term bias after breaking the downward trendline resistance from April highs earlier this week. Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies highlight overstretched levels on intraday charts, although the daily chart shows room for further appreciation, at 67. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trending higher, reinforcing the bullish view.
Above $4,300, the next hurdle lies at the June 15 and 17 highs in the mentioned $4,380 area. Further up, the late-May lows just ahead of $4,600 will come into focus. Supports are at Thursday's low of $4,223, ahead of the broken trendline, now around $4,050, and the July 31 and August 3 lows, around the $4,000 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said in an interview with Punchbowl, released during the European trading session on Friday, that a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is not completely on Chairman Kevin Warsh, but on the entire board.
Additional remarks
It's up to Warsh a 'little bit’.
It's not completely up to Warsh on rate hike before vote.
I think he’s great; I won’t be criticizing him.
We have President Xi coming here in a couple of weeks.
He's got a board that' very political.
Market reaction
No major impact is seen in the US Dollar (USD) following remarks from US President Trump. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades marginally lower to near 99.92.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s July Jobs Report to confirm ongoing labour market strength, with employment rising another 20k, matching consensus and extending the recovery of 2026 job losses. They see hiring intentions improving into Q3 and project the Unemployment Rate dipping to 6.4%, while wage growth slows to 3.4% year-on-year on a large base effect from last July.
Employment gains and softer wages
"We look for the labour market to build on recent strength with employment forecast to rise by another 20k in July, in line with the market consensus, after recovering most of the 2026 job losses over May/June."
"Monthly hiring intentions have been trending higher into Q3, with the S&P Composite Employment indicator reaching its highest level since 2024Q4 in July."
"Services could see a mild headwind from a partial unwind of recent strength in accommodation/food services, but payroll employment has been on a much stronger trajectory in recent months."
"A 20k print would see the unemployment rate fall 0.1pp to 6.4% (market: 6.5%), while wage growth should slow by 0.3pp to 3.4% y/y on a large base effect from last July."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose raises the near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30, citing recent global risk-off moves and uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock. The bank leaves its end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and its end-2027 forecast unchanged at 4.40, while expecting EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027.
Higher near-term euro-zloty levels
"In the near term, the zloty faces additional downside pressure from elevated global risk aversion toward emerging markets and the uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock."
"We are revising up our near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30 in order to re-calibrate with recent risk-off moves in world markets which have impacted many EM currencies, in particular high-beta ones."
"We continue to assume that the geopolitical situation will de-escalate, which will allow the euro and eastern European currencies to stabilise, and PLN can recover from current risk-driven weakness."
"This recovery could be helped by the timing of monetary policy: NBP may remain on hold while oil prices and risk premia begin to fall, which will create a ‘sweet spot’ before rate cut expectations return. In the medium-term, the zloty faces more headwinds because of the political risks and stay on a mild depreciating path."
"We leave our end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and forecast EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027."
"We leave our end-2027 EUR/PLN forecast unchanged at 4.40."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF pulls back to the 0.8100 area after failure to extend gains beyond 0.8135.
- US Dollar's upside momentum has waned on Friday, with investors awaiting Nonfarm Payrolls data.
- The technical picture shows the near-term bullish trend intact while above 0.8075.
The US Dollar (USD) pares gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, with the USD/CHF pair drifting towards the 0.8100 level, after rejection at 0.8136 highs on Thursday. The Greenback is still on track for a 0.3% rally this week, but investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is keeping USD bulls in check on Friday.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement in July's payrolls, looking for “a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls.” They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum.
In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate Index, released earlier in the day, has shown a slight improvement to -35 in Q3, from -40 in the previous quarter, although it remains close to historic lows. The impact on the Swissie has been minimal.
Technical Analysis: The Near-term bias remains positive
USD/CHF trades at 0.8105, after retreating from 0.813, yet with price action showing a constructive pattern from July 30 lows. Momentum is positive, although showing fading bullish traction, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line marginally above its signal and zero.
US Dollar bears are testing support at a previous resistance zone above 0.8100. Further down, the trendline resistance from the mentioned July 30 low, now around 0.8075, and the bottom of August's trading range, at the 0.8055-0.8060 area, are likely to test downside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8124 and the July 30 high at 0.8175 ahead of the 13-month high, at 0.8205 hit in late July.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- The US Dollar Index remains steady ahead of the July US jobs report.
- Middle East tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
- Investors await the NFP report for fresh clues on the Fed policy outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around 99.95 at the time of writing on Friday, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the release of the July US employment report. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset, while the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report could offer fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next monetary policy decision.
Regional tensions remain elevated after a Saudi official warned that some Iraqi militia factions, in coordination with the Iran-backed Houthis, are preparing to launch an attack against Saudi Arabia in the near future. Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi Oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, while reports suggest that Iran is considering a framework that would restrict the passage of US and Israeli vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. These developments continue to support Oil prices, revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations for a more hawkish monetary policy stance, helping keep US Treasury yields elevated and supporting the Greenback.
Market attention now turns to the employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists expect the US economy to have added 80K jobs in July after 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2% and annual Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to hold at 3.5%. The figures could reshape market expectations for the Fed’s policy path, as investors continue to price in the possibility of another interest rate hike before the end of the year.
The NFP report is therefore expected to be the main catalyst for the US Dollar in the near term. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce expectations for a more hawkish Fed and could provide additional support for the USD, while a weaker reading may weigh on the Greenback despite the ongoing support from geopolitical uncertainty.
US Dollar Index technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, the US Dollar Index trades at 99.91. The near-term tone is neutral, with price holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 99.86 and the rising trend-line support coming in around 99.72, but still capped well below the 200-period SMA at 100.30. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.09 sits close to its midline, hinting at balanced momentum after the recent consolidation around the 100.00 figure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 100.06, ahead of the 200-period SMA at 100.30 and a higher horizontal level at 100.45. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nearby cluster formed by the 100-period SMA at 99.86 and the upward-sloping trend line at 99.72, with a more distant structural floor at 99.42. A clear break above 100.06 or below 99.72 would likely be needed to drive the next directional move in the index.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.34 per troy ounce, up 4.58% from the $61.52 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 9.49% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 64.34 |
1 Gram | 2.07 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.00 on Friday, down from 68.92 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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