Forex News
- NZD/USD shed 0.4% on Tuesday, closing near 0.5885 after the 0.5900 zone capped a push to the session high at 0.5925.
- The Fed's Wednesday decision is expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with focus on Chair Powell's tone on inflation.
- The RBNZ's Breman speaks Wednesday; Thursday's ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence print could shift Kiwi sentiment.
NZD/USD slipped 0.4% on Tuesday, closing near 0.5885 after a session high close to 0.5925 and a fresh rejection from the 0.5900 handle. The pair traded in a roughly 65-pip range between 0.5860 and 0.5925, with a series of lower highs forming through the European and US sessions as the early Asia bid faded. Bullish momentum from the Tokyo open waned quickly once price failed to hold above 0.5900, leaving small-bodied candles around 0.5885 as the session ground out.
On the New Zealand side, attention turns to a scheduled speech from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Breman on Wednesday for any read on the policy outlook, with Thursday's Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)-Roy Morgan consumer confidence release providing a check on household sentiment after a soft prior reading of 91.3. The Iran conflict's pressure on commodity prices and freight costs continues to weigh on growth-sensitive currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar, and Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data out of Australia will be watched for a regional inflation read-through.
On the US Dollar side, the Fed's policy decision at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday is the central focus, with rates expected to be held at 3.50% to 3.75%. Markets are watching closely for Chair Powell's tone on inflation given the persistent oil price pressure from the ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. A hawkish hold would likely keep NZD/USD pinned below the 0.5900 handle into Thursday's US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) prints, where Core PCE is forecast at 3.2% YoY versus 3% prior.
NZD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 15-minute chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5885, keeping a bearish intraday tone as the pair holds below the daily open at 0.5915. With price unable to recover that overhead reference level, short-term action remains capped, while the Stochastic RSI easing back toward mid-range around 44 suggests fading upside momentum after earlier overbought readings.
On the topside, the daily open at 0.5915 stands as immediate resistance and would need to be reclaimed to alleviate the current downside pressure and open the door to a corrective bounce. On the downside, the absence of nearby mapped supports leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely watching for fresh price-based floors to emerge on subsequent dips.
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5885, holding above both the 200-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which sit clustered just below price around 0.5850–0.5860 and suggest a constructive near-term bias. The Stochastic RSI hovers in overbought territory near 74, hinting that upside momentum remains firm but may be vulnerable to a pause or shallow pullback after the latest advance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is reinforced by the 200-period EMA at 0.5849, followed closely by the 50-period EMA at 0.5861, forming a nearby demand-turned-acceptance band just under the market that bulls will want to defend on any dip. A daily close well above these clustered averages would keep the pair biased higher, while a break back beneath them would signal that the current recovery phase is losing traction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- AUD/USD posted a near-flat session on Tuesday, settling around 0.7180 after holding inside a roughly 70-pip band of 0.7130 to 0.7200.
- Wednesday's Australian CPI release is forecast to print 4.7% YoY for March, a sharp acceleration from 3.7% prior.
- The Fed's rate decision at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday is expected to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.
AUD/USD posted a near-flat close on Tuesday, settling around 0.7180 after a session that traded within a roughly 70-pip range between 0.7130 and 0.7200. Price tagged the upper end of that band early in the European session before drifting back into the middle, leaving a cluster of small-bodied candles close to the 0.7180 area as traders held positions ahead of Wednesday's quarterly inflation print.
On the Australian side, Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 01:30 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst. Headline CPI is forecast to jump to 4.7% YoY for March from 3.7% prior, a sharp acceleration that markets are partly attributing to the Iran conflict's pass-through to energy and freight costs. The Trimmed Mean CPI is also in focus given its weight in Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy calculus, and a print at or above consensus would likely tighten RBA hike expectations and lend support to the Australian Dollar.
On the US Dollar side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision later Wednesday at 18:00 UTC is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The market focus is on Chair Powell's tone around inflation persistence, given the Crude Oil-driven cost pressures stemming from ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, and on whether the Fed views the energy shock as transitory or structural. A hawkish hold or any signal of renewed tightening risk would likely lift the US Dollar broadly and cap AUD/USD upside heading into Friday's Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) release.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7180, keeping a mildly bearish intraday tone as it holds below the daily open at 0.7191, which now acts as immediate resistance. The latest Stochastic RSI reading near 15 suggests short-term downside momentum has cooled into oversold territory, hinting at scope for a modest corrective bounce while the broader pressure remains capped by the overhead open.
On the topside, the daily open at 0.7191 is the first resistance to beat for buyers to ease the immediate bearish bias and open the way for a deeper recovery. On the downside, the absence of nearby defined support levels on this timeframe leaves price action vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely to lean on intrabar lows and psychological handles for interim demand cues.
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7180, keeping a clear bullish near-term bias as spot holds well above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7041 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6800. The configuration of price above these key trend gauges suggests underlying demand remains in control, although the Stochastic RSI near 79 hints that the latest advance is edging into stretched territory and could slow if buyers hesitate to extend gains.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 50-day EMA around 0.7041, where a pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest while it holds. A deeper correction would expose the 200-day EMA at 0.6800 as a more critical structural floor, with a sustained break beneath that level needed to undermine the broader bullish backdrop signaled by the current daily setup.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong notes USD/IDR has turned lower with the broader US Dollar (USD) pullback, but says recent Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) softness reflects external uncertainty from a potential prolonged United States (US)–Iran conflict and vulnerability to energy shocks. While concerns persist, the bank sees room for IDR to recover once geopolitical tensions ease and Oil prices decline, with support and resistance levels closely monitored for signs of a deeper pullback.
Geopolitics and energy risk dominate
"USD/IDR turned lower overnight amid broad USD pullback and the uptick in risk sentiments. Iran’s proposal to US may have partially helped to de-escalate geopolitical uncertainties though oil prices staying higher raises the question if the Monday rebound in oil-sensitive Asian FX, including IDR can be sustained."
"Overall, the IDR softness this episode reflects external uncertainty tied to the risk of a prolonged US-Iran conflict. Sentiment was further undermined by S&P’s explicit mention that Indonesia is the sovereign most vulnerable in Southeast Asia to a prolonged energy shock."
"While concerns remain in the interim, we see room for IDR to recover at some point when geopolitical situation de-escalates more meaningfully, alongside oil prices easing. USD/IDR last seen at 17195 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart shows tentative signs of fading while RSI eased lower."
"Recent price action may also represent a short term exhaustion pattern after a sharp topside break. We are keeping a look out for any continuation in the pullback though it remains early to concur a major trend reversal at this point. Support at 17100 levels (21 DMA), 16960 (50 DMA). Resistance at 17250, 17315 levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research economists Byron Lam and Daisy Sharma highlight that China’s 1Q 2026 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 5.0% year-on-year from 4.5% in Q4 2025, supported by strong external demand but uneven domestic momentum. Their GDP Nowcast model points to a slowdown to 4.5% in 2Q, with industrial activity, exports and retail sales weakening, while credit and fixed asset investment remain subdued. They also expect China’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, noting downside risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
DBS sees slower China growth ahead
"Today we focus on China’s 1Q real GDP which rose from 4.5%yoy in Q4 2025 to 5.0%, starting the year with a solid footing."
"Industrial activity remained well supported by strong external demand, while domestic momentum stayed uneven, with consumption, investment, and credit growth subdued amid persistent property sector stress and ongoing capacity reduction efforts."
"As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.5% in 2Q."
"The slowdown in growth will be led by weaker industrial activity, exports, and retail sales."
"We expect China’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
TD Securities’ Head of Commodity Strategy, Bart Melek, argues that Gold is under pressure as Oil-driven inflation keeps real rates elevated and raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal. He notes institutional, ETF and central bank demand has weakened, with technical support seen near the 200-day moving average around $4,258 and a year-end recovery toward the $5,200 range once Oil stabilizes.
High real rates cap Gold upside
"In sharp contrast to most other commodities, gold benefits from being a monetary metal and tends to perform well when inflation rises. However, this is usually only true when monetary policy is not actively attempting to suppress inflation by sharply increasing real rates, as was the case back in 1979-82."
"Given the current negative supply shock, there is a risk that policy will remain relatively restrictive, implying high real carry and a high opportunity cost of holding gold. This is likely why demand from institutional investors, ETFs, and central banks has been weak since the start of the war."
"With that, inflation expectations would almost certainly rise further, and markets would once again grow increasingly concerned about stagflation and higher interest rates across the yield curve. These concerns have already weighed heavily on precious and base metals. Gold is down roughly $700/oz since the conflict began (–13%), silver has fallen $21/oz (–22%), and copper has remained flat despite a deep market deficit."
"Some central banks have slowed purchases because of liquidity constraints associated with the war and may be looking for a lower entry point near support levels. From a technical perspective, gold’s 200-day moving average, currently near $4,258, represents a major support level. An oil spike to $150/b could push the yellow metal down to this level."
"But as long as that level broadly holds, the longer-term uptrend remains intact. Once the oil market starts to stabilize and inflation signals point lower, we expect the yellow metal to move back into the $5,200 range by year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe USD/SGD as slipping on broad USD weakness and expects two‑way, range‑bound trading in the near term, with resistance around 1.2780–1.2850 and support near 1.2720–1.2670. They note that Singapore Dollar (SGD) is likely to behave as a regional defensive currency, holding up better than higher‑beta FX if geopolitical uncertainties persist, supported by stronger domestic data.
Defined range and defensive SGD
"USD/SGD slipped amid broad USD pullback. Pair was last at 1.2745 levels. Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias. 2-way trades likely in the interim. Resistance at 1.2780/1.28 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo). Support at 1.2720 levels (61.8% fibo), 1.2670 (76.4% fibo)."
"On relative terms, SGD can continue to trade like a regional defensive play, holding up better against higher-beta FX should geopolitical uncertainties continued to persist. "
"On data released yesterday, Singapore’s industrial production accelerated to 10.1% YoY in March, picking up speed from the upwardly revised February readings of 3.3% YoY. Electronics was the outperformer again at 30% YoY, followed by precision engineering, general manufacturing while output for both the biomedical and chemicals clusters both fell."
"Our economists noted that 1Q26 GDP growth is likely to be revised up from the advance estimate of 4.6% YoY to 5.2% YoY ceteris paribus as the manufacturing sector growth is likely to be notched higher to 7.9%YoY based on the March print versus the advance estimate of 5.0% YoY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI US Oil reaches a two-week high of around $98 amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
- Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt nearly 20% of global supply.
- Escalation risks fuel supply concerns and reinforce the market’s bullish bias.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $98.00 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 3.21% on the day, reaching its highest level since mid-April. The rise in Crude prices comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran remain deadlocked.
According to reports cited by Reuters, US President Donald Trump considers the peace proposal submitted by Tehran insufficient, particularly due to the lack of commitments regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This stance keeps the diplomatic stalemate in place and prolongs the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for around 20% of global Oil supply.
This major supply disruption is mechanically supporting Oil prices, bringing WTI closer to the psychological $100 level. At the same time, Brent is also advancing, reflecting broad-based tightness across energy markets.
Concerns extend beyond the Oil market alone. United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of a potential global food crisis if the situation persists, highlighting the systemic consequences of a prolonged closure of the strait.
In this context, some market participants expect further upside in prices if disruptions continue. Citibank outlines a scenario in which Brent Oil could reach $150 per barrel should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed through the end of June.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities analysts expect Canada’s Spring Economic Update to show a CAD 60 billion deficit over 2026–27, slightly better than the prior budget shortfall. They attribute the improvement to stronger nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosting revenues and only modest new spending, while seeing limited changes to borrowing plans as T-bills and the Canada Strong Fund structure absorb funding needs.
Stronger revenues offset modest new spending
"The Federal Government is scheduled to present its Spring Economic Update (SEU) at 16:00ET on Tuesday, where we look for a $60bn deficit over 2026-27 for a modest improvement from the $65.4bn shortfall in Budget 2025."
"This improvement stems from a combination of stronger budget revenues following upward revisions to nominal GDP, along with modest new spending in the update itself."
"We do not expect material changes to 2026-27 borrowing projections, with T-bills able to absorb new spending measures."
"The new Canada Strong Fund will also require ~$8bn/yr in funding (through 28-29) with its $25bn endowment spread over three years."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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