Forex News
- Gold price jumps to near $4,530 on renewed US-Iran deal optimism.
- US-Iran deal hopes have weighed heavily on the Oil price.
- Gulf oil infrastructure damage and the need to rebuild energy inventory could keep oil prices higher.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 0.7% to near $4,530 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal extends its Thursday’s recovery move, as Oil prices decline due to renewed hopes of a permanent peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 1.6% lower, hitting a fresh five-week low near $86.30.
On Thursday, a report from Axios showed that the US and Iran had reached an agreement over a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which includes “unrestricted” energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, and the removal of the US blockade on Iranian sea ports. However, the agreement still needs approval from US President Donald Trump.
Gold price has been underperforming in the past few months as higher Oil prices due to Middle East conflicts fueled US inflation, which forced traders to price out the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, with markets even beginning to price in potential rate hikes by December. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold.
However, falling Oil prices this week have reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening, with markets now pricing in a 44% chance of higher rates by December, down from nearly 62% a week earlier.
Meanwhile, market experts are of the view that damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the need to rebuild oil inventory would keep Oil prices higher even as Middle East conflicts get resolved.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Brent and WTI to hold stable around $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively, through 2027. They note that global inventory rebuilding and structural supply responses will offset downward pressure even if shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz reopen.
The projected Oil price will still be almost 30% higher than what was seen before the onset of the war.
Also, US President Trump’s refusal to approve the latest US-Iran framework could lead to fresh concerns over the Gold price.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,530 as of writing. However, the near-term tone of the precious metal remains bearish as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,572.
The proximity of price to this EMA suggests the metal remains capped by short-term trend resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 hints at subdued, mildly bearish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $4,572 is the first barrier bulls must reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards the May 15 high at $4,665. Looking down, the yellow metal could slide to $4,300 if it falls back below the May 28 low at $4,366.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD jumps to near 0.5967 as RBNZ Governor Breman supports quick and steeper interest rate hikes.
- RBNZ’s Breman expresses that the committee is focused on cooling inflationary pressures.
- Investors await US President Trump’s approval of the 60-day MoU with Iran.
The NZD/USD pair trades 0.55% higher to near 0.5967 during the European trading session on Friday and is up 2% so far this week. The Kiwi pair extends its winning streak for the third trading day amid hopes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will adopt an ultra-hawkish monetary policy stance to bring inflation lower.
New Zealand Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.26% | 0.27% | -0.00% | -0.04% | -1.47% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.31% | 0.32% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -1.45% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.36% | -1.76% | -0.51% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | -0.32% | 0.24% | -0.29% | -0.35% | -1.77% | -0.55% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.30% | 0.29% | -0.06% | -1.48% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.36% | 0.35% | 0.06% | -1.40% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | 1.47% | 1.45% | 1.76% | 1.77% | 1.48% | 1.40% | 1.27% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.51% | 0.55% | 0.20% | 0.20% | -1.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Earlier in the day, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said that the interest rates were likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled to combat inflation, Reuters reported. Breman added, "The committee remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to target while avoiding unnecessary volatility in the economy."
This was the second time this week when RBNZ Governor Breman stressed on tightening monetary conditions to slow down the inflation growth. “Committee sees inflationary pressures going forward, agrees cash rate needs to be higher going forward,” Breman said on Wednesday after the central bank decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25%.
Meanwhile, investors await the approval of the United States (US)-Iran agreement to a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by President Donald Trump. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.10.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades higher at around 0.5967 at press time. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5894, keeping the near-term tone constructive as price extends its recovery from last week’s lows.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 59, hinting at firm but not yet overbought bullish momentum while the spot price pivots around the opening level for the day.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 0.5894, where a break would expose deeper losses toward the May 26 low at 0.5831. On the upside, the pair could pivot to a fresh leg of rally if it manages to extend its advance above the May 6 high at 0.5991. Looking up, the major resistance zone will be the February 26 high at 0.6014, followed by the February 18 high at 0.6054.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- EUR/USD rebound from 1.1585 lows has stalled below the range top, at 1.1660.
- An extension of the US-Iran truce has triggered a moderate risk appetite.
- Mixed Eurozone data has weighed on the Euro, as traders await German inflation numbers.
The Euro (EUR) holds moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with price action trapped within the last two weeks’ trading range, below 1.1660. The risk relief triggered by the US-Iran peace extension has been offset by a string of mixed Eurozone figures, and investors await German inflation figures to confirm expectations that the European Central Bank will hike rates in June.
News that Washington and Tehran have reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and allow negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program to continue has brightened market sentiment. Market optimism, however, remains moderate as the agreement still needs to be ratified by the US and Iranian governments.
In the Eurozone, data from France disappointed, with the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Contracting. Inflation figures in France and Spain undershot expectations, although they remain at levels well above the ECB’s 2% target. On the positive side, the German Unemployment Rate declined unexpectedly in April, and the Italian Q1 GDP accelerated.
The market is now focusing on Germany's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for May, due later on Thursday. German consumer inflation is also expected to have moderated this month, following a sharp acceleration in April and March, boosted by the energy shock stemming from Iran’s war.
Technical Analysis: Bulls need to break above 1.1660
EUR/USD trades at 1.1643, holding a neutral-to-bullish stance. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidates above the key 50 level, with a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hinting at a mild positive momentum. The pair, however, needs to breach the 1.1660 level to confirm a bullish reversal.
If 1.1660 finally gives way, the focus would shift to the May 14 high, at 1.1720, which might test bulls ahead of May's peak, in the 1.1790 area. Bearish attempts, on the contrary, remain contained above 1.1625 on Friday, which is guarding the bottom of the range, near 1.1575 (May 21 low). Further down, the next target emerges at the April bottom in the 1.1505-1.1525 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri May 29, 2026 12:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.5%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri May 29, 2026 12:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
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