Forex News
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to outperform G10 peers, underpinned by hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and improving domestic activity data. With markets already pricing nearly 90bp of further tightening by mid-2027, they see AUD/NZD biased lower and flag New Zealand’s 2Q26 Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on 21 July as the next key catalyst for NZD performance.
Hawkish RBNZ underpins NZD strength
"The NZD continues to outperform across G10 FX, supported by hawkish RBNZ commentary that has reinforced expectations for further policy tightening. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway recently warned that inflation could prove sticky, increasing the likelihood of additional rate hikes. The central bank began its tightening cycle with a 25bp rate increase to 2.50% on 8 July."
"That said, with markets already pricing almost 90bp of further tightening by mid-2027, the bar for the RBNZ to deliver a materially more hawkish message is high. A renewed rise in energy prices also remains a key downside risk for the NZD given New Zealand's status as a net oil importer."
"Even so, the RBNZ has shown little inclination to push back against current market pricing, while recent activity indicators suggest the economy is beginning to recover. These domestic tailwinds should continue to support the NZD, reinforcing our view that AUD/NZD has likely peaked and remains biased lower. The next major catalyst for the NZD will be New Zealand's 2Q26 CPI release on 21 July."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD oscillates in a narrow band as traders seem hesitant amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
- The divergent RBNZ-Fed expectations act as a tailwind for spot prices amid a weaker US Dollar.
- The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
The NZD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.5800 mark through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's late pullback from a nearly one-month high, around the 0.5845 zone. The latter also marks a confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall – and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the NZD/USD pair now seems to have found acceptance above the 50% retracement level and seems poised to extend the recent recovery from the 0.5625 area, or the year-to-date low touched in June. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60. This validates the near-term constructive outlook and backs the case for additional gains.
That said, bulls might still need to wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.5845 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets, as escalating US-Iran tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, a break above the said hurdle would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.5853, with stronger resistance seen higher at 0.5915 and the 0.5995 swing high, where the broader bearish bias would start to fade if reclaimed.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement near 0.5809, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.5765 and deeper cushions at 0.5711 and 0.5623. The downside, however, seems limited in the wake of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt. Furthermore, receding bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year might keep USD bulls on the back foot, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.02% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.04% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.00% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Rabobank strategist Michael Every notes Brent Oil holding steady around $85-86 per barrel after an aggressive short squeeze. Every links this stability to ongoing Middle East tensions, United States (US) sanctions enforcement in Hormuz, and strategic efforts to develop alternative pipelines. Every references energy analyst Joe Delaura’s expectations for Brent and broader LNG dynamics without changing its neutral stance on prices.
Brent holds steady near $85-86
"Brent is still stable at $85-86, in line with our energy analyst Joe Delaura’s expectations, following the aggressive short squeeze just seen."
"Yet President Trump is again threatening to hit Iranian power plants and bridges next week if no deal is reached; Axios reports that Trump just held a Situation Room meeting on massive new strikes that are wide enough in scope to force Tehran to back off in Hormuz; the Houthis might threaten the Red Sea after announcing Saudi airspace is not safe for overflight; and Israeli PM Netanyahu warned Iran if his country is attacked, the response will be a “decisive blow.”"
"Trump also just hosted Iraq’s PM for talks on a final US troop withdrawal set for end-September, Iran, and oil - where the US is supporting efforts to revive an Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline as another Hormuz workaround."
"Trump also dropped his 20% Hormuz toll in favour of GCC FDI pledges into the US."
"So, if the US starts a war to control Hormuz but can’t, even if it gains during fighting as an LNG and helium exporter, why not then ensure the strait is not a chokepoint?"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US Dollar Index may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 100.98.
- The Relative Strength Index around 52 indicates neutral momentum.
- Primary support rests at the ascending channel's lower boundary, around 100.80.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day, trading around 100.80 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias, as the dollar index is trading within the ascending channel pattern.
The near-term tone is neutral to mildly constructive as price holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but the index remains capped by the shorter nine-day EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 suggests momentum is neither overbought nor oversold, hinting at consolidation while the market digests recent gains below nearby dynamic resistance.
The US Dollar Index may rebound toward the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 100.98. A break above the short-term price average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the dollar index to test the 14-month high of 101.80, which was recorded on June 24, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 102.90.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 100.80, followed by the 50-day EMA at 100.23. Further declines below this confluence support zone would cause the bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to navigate the region around a nearly five-month low of 97.62, recorded on May 6.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.03% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.13% | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.05% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.03% | -0.13% | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.07% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.08% | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.08% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.00% | -0.04% | -0.16% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- AUD/USD edges higher to near 0.6990 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The US launched fresh Iran strikes as Trump announced the Hormuz blockade.
- Softer-than-expected US CPI data in June tempered expectations for Fed policy tightening.
The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to around 0.6990 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as markets reduced their bets of a US rate hike after US inflation slowed more than expected in June. Traders await the release of the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) report for fresh impetus.
US inflation, as measured by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.5% in the 12 months through June, down from 4.2% in May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. This figure came in softer than the market expectations of 3.8%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6% YoY in June compared to a rise of 2.9% in May, below the market consensus of 2.8%.
Traders have priced in nearly a 16.6% probability of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, versus 35% before the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. They give a hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting about a 60% odds, down from more than 90% before the release of the CPI data.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term. CNN reported on Wednesday that the US launched and completed the fourth day of strikes on Iranian targets. Iranian state media also reported that Tehran struck US military assets in Jordan.
US President Donald Trump warned that the US would strike bridges and power plants next week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table. Earlier this week, Trump announced the US will not impose a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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