Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/KRW has pushed toward 1,495, reflecting KRW’s high-beta nature during geopolitical stress and energy price spikes. With bullish momentum intact and RSI rising, risks are skewed to the upside, with resistance at 1,500 and 1,510 and support at 1,470, though policymakers’ reassurances and any conflict resolution could slow depreciation and eventually trigger a turnaround.
Upside skew while policymakers vigilant
"The KRW was among the worst performers, with USDKRW pushing toward 1495 at one point overnight, underscoring the KRW’s high-beta characteristics during periods of geopolitical stress and energy price spikes."
"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI shows signs of rising."
"Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 1500, 1510 levels."
"Support at 1470 levels. That said policymakers have been quick to reassure markets this time and more forceful steps can help to slow the pace of depreciation."
"For a turnaround to play out would require the conflict to end and resumption of shipping routes, oil flows."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The US Dollar (USD) is ending the week on a firmer stance as the US/Israeli war against Iran closes in on two weeks. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spiked Oil prices, boosting inflation risks and prompting investors to hide in safe-haven currencies like the Greenback. The escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate market sentiment after Iran targeted oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz this week, disrupting supply in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) crossed the 100.00 mark and is now trading near 100.30 after four days of gains. On another note, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in January and appears to be in a wait-and-see stance ahead of the next interest rate decision on Wednesday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.72% | 0.80% | 0.16% | 0.65% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.72% | 0.07% | -0.55% | -0.07% | 0.39% | 0.40% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.80% | -0.07% | -0.61% | -0.14% | 0.32% | 0.32% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.55% | 0.61% | 0.49% | 0.93% | 0.92% | 0.43% | |
| CAD | -0.65% | 0.07% | 0.14% | -0.49% | 0.45% | 0.44% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -1.12% | -0.39% | -0.32% | -0.93% | -0.45% | 0.00% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | -1.12% | -0.40% | -0.32% | -0.92% | -0.44% | -0.01% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.43% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1430 price region, slipping to levels last seen in August 2025. Additionally, the ongoing surge in Oil prices poses a challenge for the Eurozone economy, which remains heavily dependent on imported fuel.
GBP/USD is trading close to the 1.3240 price region, lowering itself to levels last reached in December of 2025 even after a disappointing US employment report, as global energy developments remain an important factor for the UK.
USD/JPY is trading near the 159.60 with little gains throughout the day as periods of heightened global uncertainty tend to benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY). Should the conflict escalate or threaten global energy supplies, the pair could succumb to the pressure and drop from its near two-year high.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.7000, slipping from the 0.7100 level after rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding energy could weigh on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $97 per barrel after government reserve releases failed to keep hold down prices. WTI reached $119 per barrel on Monday, a level it hadn’t seen since 2022.
Gold is trading at $5,044, little changed throughout the day.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Tuesday, March 17
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- Wednesday, March 18
- BoC Press Conference
- FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, March 19
- BoJ Press Conference
- SNB Press Conference
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement
- ECB Press Conference
Friday, March 20
- ECB’s Nagel speech
- Saturday, March 21
- ECB’s Cipollone speech
- Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell speech
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Monday, March 16
- CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
- CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
- USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar)
- USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
Tuesday, March 17
- AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
- EUR Consumer Price Index ((YoY) (Feb)
- GER ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
- JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Feb)
Wednesday, March 18
- EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Feb)
- EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Feb)
- EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Feb)
- USD Producer Price Index (Feb)
- CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
- US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision
- US FOMC Economic Projections
- NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
- NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
Thursday, March 19
- AUD Employment Change s.a. (Feb)
- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- UK Employment Change (3M) (Jan)
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jan)
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision
- CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
- EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate
- EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility
- USD Initial Jobless Claims
- USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Mar)
- USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)
- NZD Westpac Consumer Survey (Q1)
- NZD Trade Balance NZD (YoY) (Feb)
Friday, March 20
- CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision
- EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
- EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
- CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
- USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Henry Hao expects upcoming China data to confirm a structural divergence: Industrial Production around 5.5% year-on-year, supported by a 21.8% export surge in green tech, versus modest 3.0% retail sales and subdued Fixed-Asset Investment near 1.5%. He sees infrastructure-led support only materialising from Q2 as record bond issuance is deployed.
Exports drive growth as demand lags
"The upcoming release is likely to confirm that China’s industrial sector remains the primary driver of the economy. We forecast Industrial Production (IP) to grow by 5.5% yoy."
"The disconnect between supply and demand is expected to persist, with retail sales forecast at a modest 3.0% yoy. While the January-February period could benefit from strong service consumption, driven by robust domestic tourism during the Lunar New Year holiday, this momentum could be largely offset by weakening demand for big-ticket items."
"Fixed-asset investment (FAI) is expected to edge into positive territory at 1.5% yoy, marking a shift after the contraction environment in 2025 H2. However, we maintain a cautious outlook, as FAI is likely to remain subdued in the near term."
"Consequently, the immediate stabilization of FAI hinges on equipment upgrades, while the broader infrastructure surge remains a prospect for the second half of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- US Dollar Index rises toward May 2025 highs as Middle East tensions boost demand for the Greenback.
- Oil supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz push crude prices higher, fueling inflation concerns.
- Fading Fed rate-cut bets lift US Treasury yields and support the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, extends its advance on Friday and is set for a second consecutive weekly gain amid escalating Middle East tensions, which continue to boost demand for the US Dollar (USD).
At the time of writing, the index trades near 100.32, hovering close to levels last seen in May 2025.
The USD’s advance is being driven by a mix of near-term factors tied to the ongoing US-Iran war. Rising geopolitical uncertainty has prompted investors to rotate back into the Greenback, with flows shifting out of G10 currencies as traders seek liquidity and safety during periods of market stress, reflecting the Dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency.
At the same time, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Oil prices higher. Since global crude trade is largely priced in US Dollars, rising energy costs can indirectly boost demand for the Greenback.
Elevated Oil prices are also fueling inflation fears, which could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Traders are now pricing in only about 20 basis points of easing by December, according to Bloomberg, marking a sharp shift from earlier expectations of more than 50 basis points of rate cuts before the US-Iran conflict.
Fading rate-cut bets have pushed US Treasury yields higher, offering additional support to the US Dollar. Still, signs of labor market cooling continue to cloud the policy outlook, with traders looking ahead to next week’s Fed monetary policy meeting for fresh guidance, including the updated dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Despite the renewed demand, structural headwinds for the US Dollar persist. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, concerns about political pressure on the Fed's independence, rising US government debt and growing worries about the US fiscal outlook keep the broader debasement narrative alive.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asian currencies and rates are vulnerable as the Iran conflict threatens Oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz. They stress Asia’s heavy dependence on Middle East energy imports and warn that potential energy shortages and supply chain disruptions could worsen regional growth and inflation risks.
Asian FX exposed to energy shock
"Markets remain focused on developments in the Iran conflict and the spillover impact to oil prices and to Asian FX and rates."
"Overall, Asia stands out as one of the most negatively impacted regions from disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, with 90% of the oil through the Strait going to our region."
"Meanwhile, Asia imports close to 60% of its crude oil, 22% of its refined petroleum, 20% of its natural gas, and more than 40% of other gases such as LPG from the Middle East."
"Overall, it is not just about oil prices, but about potential energy shortages and possible indirect spillover impact from supply chain disruptions which raises the left tail risks for Asia’s growth and inflation moving forward from this crisis."
"Looking forward, next week is dominated by G10 and Asia central banks alike grappling with the inflationary implications of the recent energy shock, even as domestic growth momentum remains uneven."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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