Forex News
- GBP/JPY gains some follow-through traction on Monday amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Japan’s fiscal woes undermine the JPY, while a modest USD downtick benefits the British Pound.
- Intervention risks could limit JPY losses as traders now look to BoE Bailey’s speech later this week.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers at the start of a new week, climbing back closer to the 210.00 psychological mark during the early European session amid a combination of supporting factors. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies and massive public debt. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from UK Chancellor John Healey's commitment to strict fiscal discipline during his upcoming debut budget on October 28 and firming expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in November. Apart from this, a softer US Dollar (USD) further benefits the GBP, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has noted that the broader economic outlook remains too uncertain to firmly commit to an aggressive multi-hike cycle. In contrast, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the policy phase has shifted toward pre-emptively fighting inflation risks rather than just trying to hit the 2% target. Moreover, an increase in Japan’s real wages for the eighth straight month reaffirmed bets for further BoJ policy tightening. This, along with looking intervention risks, could limit deeper JPY losses and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the GBP/JPY cross.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for Bailey's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok this week. Apart from this, comments from a slew of BoE MPC members, along with the monthly UK GDP report on Thursday, will be looked at for short-term trading opportunities. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for GBP/JPY bulls.
Economic Indicator
BoE's Governor Bailey speech
Andrew Bailey is the Bank of England's Governor. He took office on March 16th, 2020, at the end of Mark Carney's term. Bailey was serving as the Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority before being designated. This British central banker was also the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England from April 2013 to July 2016 and the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England from January 2004 until April 2011.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 16, 2026 02:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Bank of England
- EUR/GBP extends losses to the 0.8450 area, with the 17-month low ot 0.8447 a few pips away.
- France's debt issues and growing social unrest are keeping investors away from the Euro.
- In the UK, GDP data, due later this week, will be observed from a monetary policy perspective.
The Euro (EUR) depreciates further against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after dropping about 1.7% over the previous two weeks, as ongoing concerns about France's fiscal health keep investors on their toes. The EUR/GBP pair trades just above 0.8450 after rejection at the 0.8490 area on Friday, with the 16-month low of 0.8447 just a few pips away.
Investors are staying away from the Euro as the spread between the 10-year French OAT yield and the safer German Bund escalates to 137 basis points, its highest level since the 2012 financial crisis. The political deadlock in France, ahead of the presidential elections next year, and the social unrest spreading through the country are a toxic cocktail for investors that has crushed the Euro over the last few weeks.
ECB's Lagarde and UK GDP are the highlights this week
In the Calendar on Monday, the focus will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) speakers. Trading volumes, however, are likely to remain at low levels amid a long weekend in Japan and a partial holiday in the US.
In the Eurozone, on Wednesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak at a central bankers’ meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, and might provide some hints about the timing for the next interest rate hike.
In the UK, the highlight of the week will be August’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, due on Thursday. These numbers might attract particular interest this week, with investors looking for confirmation of the hawkish comments by BoE policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey in previous weeks.
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the UK’s “improved growth outlook should make it easier for the Bank of England to raise rates further in order to lean against inflation.” Regarding the EUR/GBP's near-term outlook, Commerzbank points out that they expect "EUR/GBP to trade broadly sideways over the coming months.”
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay note that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unveiled a broad package of tools to stabilise the Indian Rupee (INR), including a special Dollar facility for oil importers, tighter FX derivatives rules, and higher reserve requirements. They argue these steps should curb Dollar demand, tighten INR liquidity and help prevent a disorderly USD/INR spike after recent gains.
RBI widens toolkit to stabilise Rupee
"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly announced several measures to support the INR, targeting dollar demand from oil importers, FX derivatives activity and elevated domestic liquidity."
"To moderate dollar demand from oil imports in the open market, RBI opened a special USD facility for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) to meet their daily dollar requirements."
"RBI also tightened rules on FX derivatives. It reduced the threshold for FX derivative transactions without a documented underlying asset to USD5mn from USD100mn and prohibited dealers from re-booking cancelled INR derivative transactions."
"Additionally, RBI introduced the Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (FERR), requiring 20% of the notional value of each FX derivative transaction above USD2mn to be held with the central bank."
"The measures should raise the cost of FX hedging, curb dollar demand and drain INR liquidity, providing near-term support to the INR and putting downward pressure on forward premiums."
"Overall, the latest measures should contain a disorderly sell-off in INR. We could see a pullback in USD/INR near term after climbing to the 97.60 area in the past few weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 12:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) declines to near 102.20 on Monday as renewed Middle East tensions leave sentiment fragile. Traders await the release of key US inflation data later this week, which could offer some hints about the US interest rate path. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be published on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data on Thursday.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 17.7% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the interest rate in its October policy meeting, but are pricing in an 84.1% probability of an increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.05% | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.09% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.18% | 0.03% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Traders remain glued to developments in the Middle East. The Saudi-led coalition said on Sunday that an unidentified projectile hit a passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The Houthis swiftly claimed the attacks, saying they were a response to “Saudi aggression.”
Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump on Sunday claimed Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an ”energy ceasefire”, but he offered no details on it, per the Guardian. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was not aware of an “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia announced by Trump, but added that if Moscow agreed to such a ceasefire, Kyiv would accept it.
EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1200 in the European morning. Traders will closely watch Italy as the government is set to introduce a budget encompassing recently approved allocations to defense and energy.
GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3250 on Monday. Bank of England (BoE) policymakers Sarah Breeden and Catherine Mann are set to speak later in the day.
USD/JPY trades with mild gains below 158.50 in the European session on Monday. Trading activity expected to remain subdued due to a national holiday in Japan. Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen during the holiday.
Gold declines to around $4,185 on Monday. Yellow metal might receive some support from rising investment demand, with inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds reaching a four-year high, according to Bloomberg data.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD price action still looks like range trading after Friday’s close near 1.3234. Intraday, they expect the British Pound (GBP) to hold between 1.3215 and 1.3260. Over the coming 1–3 weeks, earlier mild downside pressure has faded and the pair is now expected to oscillate between 1.3170 and 1.3280.
Downward pressure eases into consolidation
"24-HOUR VIEW: When GBP was at 1.3230 last Friday, we indicated that “the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 1.3215 and 1.3260.” While GBP traded within a lower range of 1.3206/1.3250, it closed largely unchanged at 1.3234 (+0.03%). The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3215 and 1.3260."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (08 Oct, spot at 1.3215), we indicated that “there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but it is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline.” GBP traded in a range over the past couple of days, and the mild downward pressure has eased. From here, instead of expecting GBP to edge lower, we expect it to trade in a range between 1.3170 and 1.3280."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD trades at 1.4250, down from Friday's highs in the 1.4300 area.
- Weak US Consumer Sentiment data dented the US Dollar's rally on Friday.
- The pair consolidates gains after a nearly 3.5% uptrend in September.
The US Dollar (USD) has opened the week with a mild bearish tone against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), with trading volumes at low levels as the Japanese markets are closed on bank holidays and with the US and Canada also celebrating festivities. The USD/CAD pair has pulled back to the 1.4250 area from 1.4300 highs on Friday, but remains consolidating gains after rallying about 3.5% in September.
US data released last Friday by the University of Michigan revealed that consumer sentiment fell to levels near historic lows in October, as the higher cost of living stemming from elevated energy prices is frustrating US consumers.
In Canada, September’s employment report failed to boost investors' enthusiasm, as the Unemployment Rate increased to 6.5%, from 6.4% in August, amid a sharper-than-expected decline in net jobs.
US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday, apparently without consulting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski and, so far, without confirmation from the Russian side either. Brent prices dropped about 2.5% following the announcement, but recovered most of the losses later on, as the details of the “agreement” were disclosed.
The calendar is thin today, with only Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack’s speech worth mentioning, and with markets awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) due later in the week for further insight into the Fed’s monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction between 1.4200 and 1.4300
The technical picture shows the USD/CAD pair trading halfway through the last two weeks' range, between 1.4200 and 1.4300, consolidating gains after rallying to a 17-month high in September. Indicators on the 4-hour chart show muted momentum, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just above the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) practically flat around zero.
On the upside, above the 1.4300 resistance area (October 9 high), bulls are likely to target the early April 2025 highs at 1.4370 and the 1.4410 area. A reversal below 1.4200 (October 2, 6 and 9 lows), on the other hand, would signal a deeper correction, with the September 30 low at 1.4155 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of September's rally, arounf 1.4100 as the next bearish targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.18% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.08% | 0.08% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Danske Research Team reports that European and US equities ended Friday higher, with many indices near record levels, supported by broadly sideways yields and Oil prices. The bank stresses this is not a classic cyclical rally, as stabilising Oil has aided consumer sectors, and argues that a further Oil decline could extend equity gains, particularly for energy‑sensitive consumer names.
Consumer sectors benefit from oil pause
"Equities ended Friday higher in both Europe and the US, with many indices close to all-time highs. More importantly, last week showed that yields and oil do not necessarily need to fall for equities to advance."
"Asian equities are mixed this morning, with some renewed hesitation around AI and technology, while US and European equity futures are higher."
"Despite considerable volatility in rates, oil and energy headlines, their broadly sideways direction was sufficient to support stocks, while implied bond volatility gradually eased."
"Leadership was equally instructive: this was not a classic cyclical rally. Instead, stabilising oil prices supported consumer staples and consumer discretionary, two sectors that have struggled since the outbreak of the war in Iran, while enthusiasm for AI and capex themes was more subdued."
"A meaningful decline in oil would likely provide further upside for equities, but investors should not automatically assume traditional cyclical leadership. Consumer sectors, which have borne much of the pressure from higher energy prices, could be among the main beneficiaries."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank strategists note that Brent Oil remains above USD 100 as markets weigh heightened geopolitical risk from Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. While early Asian trading saw prices slip below USD 104, they stress that repeated strikes on Riyadh’s main airport raise the risk of US involvement and further disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows.
Middle East tensions underpin Oil prices
"Brent crude oil prices edged up 0.4% to USD 104.72 last Friday and gained 2.4% for the week."
"The dominant story over the weekend and the one most likely to set the tone for Asian markets this morning was the sharp escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia."
"The attacks are the fourth on Riyadh’s main airport in a single week, raising the risk of a dangerous escalation that could draw in the US and further disrupt energy flows from the Persian Gulf."
"In early Asian trading today, Brent crude oil prices erased earlier gains to fall 1.1% to below USD104 per barrel."
"Brent crude oil held firmly above USD 100 per barrel, underpinned by persistent Middle East supply risk."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD closed near 1.1200 after a volatile session that failed to generate fresh directional clues. For the day, they expect a 1.1180–1.1230 range. On a 1–3 week horizon, they retain a mildly negative stance, seeing a chance of a test of 1.1145 while capping rebounds below 1.1255 strong resistance.
Mildly negative bias with capped rebounds
"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR rebounded and closed at 1.1209 last Thursday. On Friday, when it was at 1.1215, we indicated that “the recovery could extend but with no clear increase in upward momentum, any advance is likely to stay within a 1.1190/1.1240 range.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1243, declined to 1.1187 before settling at 1.1201 (-0.07%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, EUR could trade between 1.1180 and 1.1230."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR about one month ago. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (08 Oct, spot at 1.1200), we highlighted that “downward momentum remains lackluster.” However, we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test 1.1145.” EUR has not been able to make much headway on the downside since then, but we will maintain our view as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1255 (level previously at 1.1265) continues to hold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI price slumps to near $90.15 in Monday’s early European session.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
- The Houthis claimed responsibility for a weekend strike on Saudi Arabia.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $90.15 during the early European trading hours on Monday. WTI price tumbles on expectations of more Russian supplies after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities following a US diesel-supply deal with Moscow.
On Friday, the US President stated that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply diesel in stages. The source said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons after that, and a further 3 million tons afterwards.
Crude oil prices are volatile after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia while two tankers were attacked over the weekend, per Reuters. Trump warned on Saturday that Iran "will not exist" if it does not cooperate with the US in negotiations. He added that he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its retaliation against Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen after a deadly attack on Riyadh’s main airport.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Sunday that it reclassified an incident in the vicinity of Sohar anchorage in Oman as an attack after confirmation that the tanker was struck by a drone.
"We expect the Houthis to continue their attacks on Saudi Arabian energy assets, supporting gains in the oil price and the USD," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.
Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.
Gasoline surge seen keeping US headline inflation elevated into 2027
According to TD Securities, US inflation pressures likely firmed again in September, with analysts expecting that "headline CPI strengthened again to 0.57% m/m, driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices of 9.0%." The bank notes that "oil and gasoline prices increased again through most of September," and estimates that, "on average, the month should result in a 5.3% m/m increase in energy CPI." TD Securities adds that "food inflation also likely edged higher," and warns that "gasoline prices remain elevated and will likely keep headline CPI high in y/y terms until early 2027."
Technical Analysis: WTI retains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader tone constructive despite the latest pullback from the $100 area. Price also sits above the lower Bollinger Band but below the middle band, indicating consolidation within the upper half of the recent volatility envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 suggests momentum has cooled to a more neutral stance rather than signaling outright downside pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $91.90, with a stronger barrier at the upper band near $98.50, which aligns with the recent swing highs and could cap any recovery attempts. On the downside, immediate attention stays on the $90.00 area as a nearby pivot, ahead of more meaningful support at the lower Bollinger Band around $85.35 and the 100-day SMA at $84.10, where a break would weaken the prevailing bullish bias and open the door to a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 06:15 GMT on Monday to say, in the first bullet point, that WTI price slumps to near $90.15 in Monday’s European session, not Asian session.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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