Forex News
- EUR/USD loses 0.63% to 1.1618 after touching 1.1530 lows.
- DXY up 0.50% at 99.04 as Fed officials warn inflation remains elevated.
- EZ HICP rises to 1.9% YoY; core accelerates to 2.4%, yet Euro pressured by geopolitics.
EUR/USD edges down during the North American session yet it has bounced off daily lows hit at 1.1530 on heightened tensions in the Middle East, despite a jump on inflation in the Eurozone. The pair trades at 1.1618, down 0.63%.
Euro weighed by geopolitics, despite high EZ inflation
Geopolitical tensions remain high, sparking a flight to safety, boosting the US Dollar. Nevertheless, breaking news that US President Donald Trump ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy traveling through the Persian Gulf, lifted the shared currency and pushed Oil prices lower.
Trump added that “if necessary, the US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.”
Consequently, the Greenback trimmed some of its earlier gains according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the American’s currency value against a basket of other six, is up 0.50% at 99.04.
Fed commentary supports a higher USD
Data-wise the US economic docket was absent, yet some Federal Reserve Regional Bank Presidents crossed the wires.
New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is “well positioned,” adding that if inflation evolves as anticipated, additional rate cuts would eventually be appropriate.
On the other hand, Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid was hawkish and warned that inflation remains “too hot” and must return to the 2% target. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed concerns, stating that inflation is still elevated and that the economy’s resilience points to a higher neutral rate.
In the Eurozone (EZ), inflation exceeded forecasts in February, still it was below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% goal. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in February rose by 1.9% YoY up from 1.7%. Underlying HICP was slightly hotter than headline inflation, jumping from 2.2% to 2.4% YoY.
The ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed concerns that scarcity of oil and gas supplies, could cause a “substantial spike” in inflation and a fall in output in the EZ. Echoing his comments was Stournaras who said that should the Middle East war continues, there will be upward pressure on inflation.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro’s upside limited beneath 200-day SMA
The technical picture turned slightly negative for the EUR/USD, which tumbled below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1664, a signal that could prompt sellers to step into the market and push prices lower. During the day, the major reached a daily low of 1.1530 before reclaiming 1.1600 and it seems poised to end the day above the January 19 swing low at 1.1576.
Momentum turns bearish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). But Trump comment, relieved investors and pushed the Shared currency past the 1.1600 milestone.
As of writing, the EUR/USD first resistance is the 200-day SMA at 1.1664. If surpassed, traders will look at the 100-day SMA at 1.1668 followed by 1.1700. A breach of the latter clears the path for a recovery, with eyes set at the 50-day SMA at 1.1773.
On the flip side, a drop below 1.1600 opens the door to test 1.1576, followed by the day’s low 1.1530 ahead of 1.1500.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 4:
The US Dollar (USD) is drawing safe-haven support amid sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting renewed investor concern. Recent remarks from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, including references to potential further military action against Iran, have reinforced the Greenback’s safe-haven status. On another note, concerns about higher global inflation have pushed Oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 99.10 price region, stepping down from 99.68, a high it hadn’t touched since November 2025 amid a geopolitical crisis stemming from the US-Israel strikes on Iran.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.64% | 0.31% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.60% | 0.72% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.64% | -0.33% | -0.48% | -0.68% | -0.04% | 0.10% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | -0.31% | 0.33% | -0.17% | -0.34% | 0.29% | 0.44% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.48% | 0.17% | -0.21% | 0.42% | 0.57% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.68% | 0.34% | 0.21% | 0.64% | 0.78% | 0.27% | |
| AUD | -0.60% | 0.04% | -0.29% | -0.42% | -0.64% | 0.14% | -0.36% | |
| NZD | -0.72% | -0.10% | -0.44% | -0.57% | -0.78% | -0.14% | -0.51% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.40% | 0.07% | -0.06% | -0.27% | 0.36% | 0.51% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near 1,1600, trimming back a big chunk of its intraday losses after hitting its lowest level since November 2025.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3330 price zone, slipping hard before recovering a big part of its losses during the American session after Iran’s envoy to the United Nations (UN) said that Tehran has not contacted the US about possible peace talks, while sirens sounded in Kuwait, according to Al Hadath.
USD/JPY rises to the 157.50 price level, trading in a neutral zone after receding some of its gains during the American session.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7050 price region after it fell sharply before the start of the American session. Market attention now shifts to Australia’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due later in the day, as well as the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report scheduled for Wednesday, alongside China’s PMI figures, which may have an impact on the Aussie, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.
Gold is trading at $5,118, stepping down from the $5,379 it touched earlier in the day as US Treasury yields weigh on the non-yielding metal, even as the geopolitical crisis surrounding the US-Iran conflict keeps investors on their toes.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, March 4:
- Australian Q4 GDP.
- Chinese February NBS Manufacturing PMIs.
- Chinese February RatingDog Services PMI.
- Swiss February CPI.
- Spain Feb HCOB PMI.
- Germany Feb HCOB PMI.
- Eurozone Feb HCOB PMIs.
- Eurozone Jan PPIs.
- Italian Q4 GDP.
- US ADP Employment Change.
- US S&P Feb Global Composite PMI
- US Feb ISM Services Employment Index.
- US Feb ISM Services New Orders Index.
- US Feb ISM Services PMI.
- US Feb ISM Services Prices Paid.
- US Fed's Beige Book.
Thursday, March 5:
- Australian January Trade Balance.
- Eurozone January Retail Sales
- US February Challenger Job Cuts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US flash Nonfarm Productivity
- US flash Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
Friday, March 6:
- Germany January Factory Orders n.s.a.
- Eurozone Employment Change (Q4).
- Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4).
- US February Average Hourly Earnings.
- US February Labor Force Participation Rate.
- US February Nonfarm Payrolls.
- US January Retail Sales.
- US February U6 Underemployment Rate.
- US February Unemployment Rate
- Canadian February Ivey PMIs.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The US Dollar Index surged to a five-week high as the Strait of Hormuz closure stokes inflation fears.
- The Fed is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with the ISM prices paid sub-index surging to a three-and-a-half-year high in February, narrowing the window for near-term rate cuts.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after US and Israeli strikes, halting tanker traffic and sending oil prices to their highest since mid-2025.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped about 0.55% on Tuesday, rallying to around 99.09 and extending Monday's sharp move higher. The index has broken decisively out of the 97.00 to 98.50 consolidation range that held through most of February, with Monday's strong bullish candle marking the biggest single-session gain in weeks.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is the primary catalyst behind the US Dollar's safe-haven bid. US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend prompted Iran's Revolutionary Guard to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed, effectively halting tanker traffic through a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Brent crude surged to around $79 per barrel, stoking fears of a fresh inflation impulse that could delay the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing timeline.
On the domestic side, the Fed is holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed several officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation stays above target. Monday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing report came in stronger than expected at 52.4, while the prices paid sub-index jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high. Markets are still pricing in two 25-basis-point cuts this year, but rising energy costs and sticky producer prices are complicating that outlook.
DXY daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.10. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price has reclaimed the 50-day exponential moving average near 97.90 and is advancing away from that area, while the 200-day average above 99.10 still caps the broader trend. Stochastic holds in overbought territory after a strong upswing from sub-20 readings, signaling firm upside momentum but also raising the risk of a pause or brief consolidation as the index tests higher ground.
Initial resistance emerges around the 200-day EMA at 99.15, with a sustained break exposing the 100.00 region as the next upside objective. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 50-day EMA near 97.90, followed by the recent reaction low at 97.00 if a pullback develops. As long as the index holds above the 97.90 area, the path of least resistance favors further tests of the 99.15 barrier.
In the weekly chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.11. The near-term bias is neutral with a slight downside lean as price holds below the gently descending 200-week exponential moving average near 100.45, keeping the broader trend under pressure. Recent weekly closes show difficulty extending beyond the 100.00 area, suggesting upside attempts are being capped within a prevailing medium-term range. The stochastic has turned higher from oversold territory but remains mid-range, indicating only moderate recovery momentum and lacking the strength to confirm a sustained bullish reversal at this stage.
Initial resistance emerges at the psychological 100.00 region, with the 200-week EMA at 100.45 reinforcing this ceiling; a weekly close above this zone would be needed to shift the bias decisively higher toward the 101.00 area. On the downside, immediate support aligns near 98.00, guarding the late pullback lows, with a break exposing the next downside level around 97.00. As long as the index trades between 98.00 and 100.45, range conditions are likely to dominate, with momentum signals watched for confirmation of any breakout.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Canadian Dollar firms on Iran-driven oil spike despite weak Q4 GDP and a cautious BoC.
- The BoC held rates at 2.25% in January, with the next decision on March 18; most analysts expect another hold as rising energy costs complicate the inflation outlook.
- WTI crude surged more than 8% on Monday after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the commodity-linked Loonie despite a 0.6% contraction in Canada's Q4 GDP.
USD/CAD slips about 0.10% on Tuesday, settling near 1.3660 in a thin daily change after Monday's broader US Dollar (USD) bid failed to carry through. The pair has been trending lower since the January highs close to 1.3930, carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows. Tuesday's candle printed a narrow body, pointing to indecision around the 1.3660 area.
A surge in Crude Oil prices is the dominant short-term driver for the Canadian Dollar (CAD). US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend prompted Iran's Revolutionary Guard to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed, halting tanker traffic through a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude jumped more than 8% on Monday, with Brent trading around $79 per barrel. As a major oil exporter, Canada benefits directly from higher energy prices, and the spike gave the Loonie a lift despite a weak domestic backdrop.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates at 2.25% in January, continuing the pause that began in December after nine consecutive cuts brought the policy rate down from 5%. Fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed a 0.6% contraction, the weakest since 2020, though February's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hit a 13-month high of 51. The next BoC decision falls on March 18, with markets broadly expecting another hold.
USD/CAD daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3661. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the declining 50-day exponential moving average near 1.3700 and remains well under the 200-day average around 1.3800, keeping the broader downswing intact. Price has been unable to sustain rebounds toward the 50-day average in recent sessions, signalling persistent selling interest on approaches to that dynamic cap. The Stochastic oscillator has turned lower from overbought territory above 80 and now slips toward the 70 region, indicating fading upside momentum and increasing risk of a deeper pullback within the recent range.
Initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA around 1.3715, with a daily close above this level needed to open a recovery toward the 1.3790–1.3800 area, where the 200-day EMA reinforces a stronger barrier. On the downside, immediate support stands at the recent reaction low near 1.3640, followed by the mid-November trough around 1.3558. A break below 1.3558 would confirm renewed bearish pressure and expose the 1.3490 zone as the next target, while only a sustained move above 1.3800 would challenge the prevailing downside bias.
In the weekly chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3661. The near-term bias is neutral with a slight downside tilt as the pair eases from the 1.4000 area and loses altitude from recent highs while still holding well above the rising 200-week EMA near 1.3600. Price action shows a sequence of lower weekly highs from the 1.4000–1.4100 region, indicating fading upside momentum. The stochastic oscillator remains in mid-range after rolling lower from overbought territory, signaling waning bullish pressure rather than an outright bearish reversal.
Initial resistance emerges at 1.3730, where recent weekly supply aligns with the lower bound of the prior 1.3900–1.4000 consolidation, followed by a more decisive barrier at 1.3915 and then 1.4000. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3615, just above the 200-week EMA, with a break exposing the next cushion at 1.3550 and then 1.3450. A weekly close above 1.3730 would revive bullish momentum toward 1.3915, while sustained trading below 1.3615 would strengthen the corrective tone and open a deeper pullback toward the mid-1.34s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- USD/JPY gains as US Dollar demand strengthens.
- US-Iran conflict fuels risk aversion and lifts Oil prices.
- Higher energy costs pose risks for Japan’s economy.
USD/JPY trades higher on Tuesday as broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the pair is hovering around 157.77, its highest level since January 23.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict have boosted demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the conflict is raising concerns about higher global inflation as fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Oil prices higher.
Japan, a major energy importer, is particularly vulnerable to rising Oil prices. A sharp increase in energy costs can push inflation higher and weigh on economic activity.
As global inflation fears mount, traders are reassessing the monetary policy outlook for major central banks. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) could delay further interest rate hikes. Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking, that “it has become difficult for the BOJ to raise rates” as policymakers assess the implications of the fresh geopolitical crisis for monetary policy.
Meanwhile, in the US, markets are fully pricing in the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the March and April meetings. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June have fallen to 28.1%, down from 42.8% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Elsewhere, Japanese authorities remain alert to the Yen’s prolonged weakness. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said financial officials are watching markets with an “extremely strong sense of urgency.”
Looking ahead, attention now turns to key US economic data due later this week. The ADP Employment Change and ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Retail Sales data on Friday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.74% | 0.47% | 0.27% | -0.09% | 0.75% | 0.95% | 0.33% | |
| EUR | -0.74% | -0.27% | -0.49% | -0.83% | 0.01% | 0.21% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | -0.47% | 0.27% | -0.23% | -0.55% | 0.28% | 0.47% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.49% | 0.23% | -0.35% | 0.49% | 0.68% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | 0.83% | 0.55% | 0.35% | 0.85% | 1.04% | 0.43% | |
| AUD | -0.75% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.49% | -0.85% | 0.19% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | -0.95% | -0.21% | -0.47% | -0.68% | -1.04% | -0.19% | -0.61% | |
| CHF | -0.33% | 0.40% | 0.13% | -0.07% | -0.43% | 0.42% | 0.61% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- XAU/USD slides briefly below $5,000 from $5,379 as the US 10-year yield climbs to 4.05%.
- DXY jumps 0.70% to 99.21 amid Strait of Hormuz closing threats and 6% Oil spike.
- Fed easing bets trimmed to 44 bps as Williams, Schmid, Kashkari sound cautious.
Gold (XAU/USD) drops more than 4% on Tuesday as high US Treasury yields weighed on the yellow metal, which usually works as a hedge amid global geopolitical uncertainty and conflicts. The escalation of hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran pushed US debt premiums higher, a tailwind for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,104 after reaching a daily low of $4,997 earlier in the day.
Risk aversion sparked by Middle East conflict fuels inflation fears
Sentiment remains sour as the conflict enters its fourth day, and the rise of Oil prices stoked inflation fears. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is rising nearly 0.70% to 99.21.
Developments in the Middle East involved explosions in Tehran and Beirut. Threats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed keep WTI prices underpinned, up so far 6.74% in the day at $75.80 per barrel.
Given the geopolitical backdrop, investors seem less confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs during the year, as depicted by high US Treasury yields. The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.059%, up nearly three basis points, a headwind for bullion.
Investors pricing in a less dovish Fed
New York Fed President John Williams crossed the wires and said that policy is “well positioned,” and that “if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid was hawkish, saying that inflation “is too hot,” and that the Fed needs to get inflation down to 2%. Recently, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that “inflation is too high,” and that the “strength of the economy suggests a higher neutral rate.”
Money markets had priced in 44 basis points of Fed easingby year-end, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
This week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday. Nevertheless, heightened geopolitical tensions pushed macroeconomic data to the backseat.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bullish, despite testing $5,000
Gold’s technical picture supports further upside after briefly testing the $5,000 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although edging lower, remains in bullish territory, an indication that buyers have the upper hand. However, in the short term, XAU/USD might consolidate above/below $5,100, awaiting a fresh catalyst.
If XAU/USD rises past $5,100, the first resistance would be $5,200, followed by the February 24 high at $5,249, ahead of $5,300. Overhead lies the March 3 high at $5,379, ahead of $5,419.
Conversely, if Gold drops below $5,000, the first support would be $4,950, followed by the February 17 cycle low of $4,841. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at $4,810.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis, said that the Iran war impact could have an effect in the monetary policy, but it is too soon to know if it could even impact inflation at the Bloomberg Invest Conference on Tuesday.
Key quotes
Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation.
Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact.
Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path.
Had thought monetary policy was in a good place.
Fed needs to see how big and long Iran shock will be.
Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased.
Doesn't think latest round of tariffs will have fresh inflation impact.
Doesn't see much chance to substantially increase level of tariffs.
Needs more data to know what Fed should do with rates this year.
The labor market is in a decent place.
Fed has to hit 2% inflation target.
Strength of economy suggests higher neutral rate.
Ahead of Iran attack, Fed job and inflation mandates felt more stable.
There is not a lot of underlying demand for labor.
Inflation is still too high but trending down.
Near term AI investment probably pushing up neutral rate.
Limited lessons from 1990s about navigating productivity boom.
Not hearing a lot from business that more inflation is coming.
Expects inflation pressures to wane this year, most interested in trajectory.
Expects housing inflation pressures to moderate.
Inflation heading in right direction until Iran war arrived.
March Fed forecasts will have more uncertainty about outlook.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.87% | 0.63% | 0.27% | 0.00% | 0.93% | 1.07% | 0.50% | |
| EUR | -0.87% | -0.24% | -0.60% | -0.86% | 0.07% | 0.20% | -0.36% | |
| GBP | -0.63% | 0.24% | -0.36% | -0.62% | 0.30% | 0.44% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | 0.60% | 0.36% | -0.27% | 0.66% | 0.78% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.86% | 0.62% | 0.27% | 0.93% | 1.06% | 0.50% | |
| AUD | -0.93% | -0.07% | -0.30% | -0.66% | -0.93% | 0.13% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | -1.07% | -0.20% | -0.44% | -0.78% | -1.06% | -0.13% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | -0.50% | 0.36% | 0.12% | -0.23% | -0.50% | 0.42% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- All four major US indexes fell sharply as the Iran conflict entered its fourth day, with the Russell 2000 leading losses at -2.55%.
- Crude Oil surged above $76 per barrel on Strait of Hormuz closure fears, driving energy stocks higher while crushing airlines and travel names.
- Target and Best Buy both topped earnings per share estimates, but gains were muted by the broader risk-off selloff.
- Rate cut expectations shifted lower as rising energy costs reignited inflation concerns, with traders now pricing fewer Federal Reserve cuts in 2026.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped around 850 points, or 1.7%, to trade near 48,000 at midday Tuesday as escalating conflict in the Middle East sent shockwaves through global markets. The S&P 500 fell 1.62% to 6,770, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.72% to 22,357. The Russell 2000 bore the brunt of the selling, tumbling 2.55% to 2,588. Tuesday's session marked a sharp reversal from Monday's late-day recovery, which had seen US equities claw back earlier losses to finish roughly flat. Overnight reports of drone strikes on the US Embassy in Riyadh and Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz dramatically ratcheted up anxiety, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surging above 25.
Iran conflict sends Oil surging, Strait of Hormuz fears intensify
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped roughly 7% on Tuesday to trade above $76 per barrel, extending Monday's 8.4% surge that had already pushed prices to their highest since June. Brent crude rose to around $84 per barrel. The escalation followed reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and would fire on any ship attempting to pass. Roughly a third of the world's seaborne crude exports flow through the strait, and analysts warned that a prolonged disruption could push Brent above $100. Exxon Mobil (XOM) continued to climb after rallying more than 5% on Monday to an intraday record, while ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) extended their multi-day gains. Defense contractors also benefited from the conflict, with Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corporation (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) all posting solid gains. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was upgraded to buy at Rosenblatt, which raised its price target to $200, citing the company's defense and AI capabilities.
Rising energy costs cloud the Federal Reserve rate cut outlook
The oil-driven inflation scare sent US Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 10-year yield climbing toward 4.10% after briefly dipping below 4.00% on Sunday. The move marked the biggest two-day advance in yields since April. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its March 18-19 meeting, with traders now betting on fewer total cuts in 2026. Bloomberg reported that traders are now pricing in reduced chances of two Fed rate cuts this year, as surging energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated longer than anticipated. New York Fed President Williams said Tuesday that the tariff burden falls overwhelmingly on US businesses and consumers, adding another layer of uncertainty to the inflation picture. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the next critical data point for rate expectations.
Airlines and travel stocks hammered by conflict fallout
Travel-related names were among the hardest hit on Tuesday as the war disrupted global tourism and sent fuel costs soaring. United Airlines Holdings (UAL), the most internationally exposed US carrier, extended Monday's 6% decline. American Airlines Group (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) both fell sharply again after dropping more than 5% on Monday. Cruise operators continued their slide, with Carnival Corporation (CCL) pacing for its worst two-day stretch since the pandemic after plunging nearly 12% on Monday. Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) also remained under heavy pressure. Hotel chains Marriott International (MAR) and Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) continued to bleed lower, while online platforms Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Expedia Group (EXPE) fell further.
Retail earnings beat expectations but gains capped by selloff
Target (TGT) reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44, comfortably beating the $2.16 consensus estimate. Revenue of $30.45 billion came in just below expectations. Despite a 2.5% decline in comparable sales, CEO Michael Fiddelke struck an optimistic tone, noting that sales turned positive year over year in February. Target guided full-year EPS of $7.50-$8.50, with the midpoint above analyst expectations, and projected a 2% sales increase. Shares rose roughly 3% premarket but gains were tempered by the broader selloff. Best Buy (BBY) also beat on the bottom line, posting adjusted EPS of $2.61 versus the $2.47 estimate. Revenue of $13.81 billion narrowly missed consensus. Comparable sales declined 0.8%, reflecting soft demand in home theater and appliances, though computing and mobile phones showed strength. Best Buy raised its dividend by 1% and guided FY27 revenue of $41.2-$42.1 billion. Shares surged as much as 9% premarket before the broader market weakness weighed on the move.
Gold, US Dollar and haven assets in focus
Gold futures opened Tuesday at $5,205 per ounce, pulling back roughly 2% from Monday's close of $5,312 after an explosive rally driven by safe-haven demand. Spot Gold had briefly touched $5,400 on Monday, its highest level in a month, before the stronger US Dollar began to cap gains. The US Dollar Index climbed nearly 1.7% over five days, erasing its year-to-date losses and hitting a five-week high as investors sought safety. Silver also saw volatile swings, bouncing nearly 2% in Asian trading after a 6% plunge on Monday. Meanwhile, the momentum trades that had defined early 2026 came under pressure, with Lithium, Uranium, and memory semiconductor stocks all falling sharply. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) dropped 10%, while Uranium miners shed double digits. Semiconductor equipment names like Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corporation (KLAC), and ASML Holding (ASML) all fell more than 6%.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- AUD/USD breaks under the 0.7000 level and posts a 1.36% decline on Tuesday.
- The US Dollar strengthens sharply, supported by risk aversion linked to the war in the Middle East.
- The RBA maintains a hawkish bias, but this isn't enough to offset selling pressure against the Greenback.
AUD/USD extends its pullback and trades around 0.6990 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 1.36% on the day, after breaking below the 0.7000 level. The pair is now hovering at multi-week lows, pressured by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) and a market environment dominated by risk aversion.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rises 0.80% to near 99.40, its highest level in more than a month. The US currency benefits from safe-haven flows amid the rapid escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which fuels investor concerns. Comments from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, referring to potential new attacks against Iran, reinforce this climate of uncertainty and underpin the US Dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
In this context, cyclical and high-beta currencies such as the Australian Dollar (USD) remain under pressure. Markets are also trimming expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, amid still-sticky inflation, which helps support US yields and the Greenback.
On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a clearly restrictive stance. Governor Michele Bullock stated that a rate hike remains possible as soon as the March meeting if the Board judges that inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored. Markets are pricing in around a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in March and fully expect tightening by May, according to Reuters. The RBA stressed that it remains “very alert” to inflation risks, particularly those stemming from higher energy prices in a tense geopolitical environment.
In addition, MUFG notes that higher Australian yields are providing some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD), arguing that the RBA’s hawkish stance helps cushion the energy shock. However, the bank warns that a prolonged bout of risk aversion driven by rising energy prices could ultimately weigh further on risk assets, including the Aussie.
Market attention now turns to Australia’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due later in the day, as well as the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report scheduled for Wednesday. These releases could provide fresh insight into the strength of domestic activity and help refine expectations regarding the RBA’s policy path. Later on Wednesday, China’s PMI figures may have an impact on the Aussie, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.89% | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 1.10% | 1.16% | 0.45% | |
| EUR | -0.89% | -0.20% | -0.57% | -0.81% | 0.21% | 0.25% | -0.44% | |
| GBP | -0.70% | 0.20% | -0.40% | -0.61% | 0.42% | 0.46% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | 0.57% | 0.40% | -0.23% | 0.79% | 0.83% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.81% | 0.61% | 0.23% | 1.02% | 1.07% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | -1.10% | -0.21% | -0.42% | -0.79% | -1.02% | 0.04% | -0.66% | |
| NZD | -1.16% | -0.25% | -0.46% | -0.83% | -1.07% | -0.04% | -0.70% | |
| CHF | -0.45% | 0.44% | 0.25% | -0.13% | -0.37% | 0.66% | 0.70% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected at 17:10 GMT to say that the RBA Governor is Michele Bullock, not Michelle.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
