Forex News

Here is what you need to know for Friday, March 6:

The US Dollar (USD) is being supported by crude oil prices, which rose to its highest level since July 2024, amid headlines of potential interruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels in the region.

United States (US) President Donald Trump told Axios that he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran's next leader, as he claimed that "Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me. We want someone who will bring harmony and peace to Iran." Mojtaba Khamenei has emerged as a frontrunner to succeed his late father as Iran's supreme leader after years spent forging close ties with the elite Revolutionary Guards and building influence in the ​clerical establishment.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises to the 99.20 price region as US employment-related figures indicated the labor market remains resilient. The Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 48.307K job cuts in February, down 55% from 108.435K in January. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 28 rose by 213K, matching the previous reading but below the expected 215 K.

EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1580 price region, slipping during the American session after the European Central Bank (ECB) published the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which showed that policymakers are relatively confident about the inflation trend, highlighting persistent uncertainty. Traders boost bets on an ECB rate hike to a 75% chance this year.

GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3330 level, resuming its downtrend after a one-day hiatus amid solid US employment data.

AUD/USD falls sharply to the 0.6990 price zone, as geopolitical fears push investors into safe-haven.

Gold is trading at $5,066, losing all its intraday gains as investors turn to the Greenback as a safe-haven.

What’s next in the docket:

Friday, March 6:

• Germany January Factory Orders n.s.a.
• Eurozone Employment Change (Q4).
• Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4).
• US February Average Hourly Earnings.
• US February Labor Force Participation Rate.
• US February Nonfarm Payrolls.
• US January Retail Sales.
• US February U6 Underemployment Rate.
• US February Unemployment Rate
• Canadian February Ivey PMIs.

• WTI prices continue to spike on the Strait of Hormuz shutdown as the US-Iran conflict enters its sixth day.
• US-Israeli strikes on Iran on last Saturday triggered retaliatory attacks across the Gulf and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply at risk.
• OPEC+ agreed to add 206K barrels per day in April, though analysts warn the increase is largely symbolic while Hormuz transit remains shut.
• Friday's US NFP report, with consensus around 60K, adds further event risk.

WTI surged over 6% on Thursday, blowing through $80 per barrel for the first time since June 2024 and extending one of the sharpest rallies in recent years. Price has gained roughly 19% since the strikes in Iran began on Saturday, accelerating from around $67 into Thursday's session high just above $80. The move has left the daily candle as a large-bodied bullish bar with almost no upper wick, suggesting buyers were in control throughout the session with little sign of profit-taking heading toward the market close.

The catalyst is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following the joint US-Israeli operation on Saturday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed on Monday, warning that any vessel attempting to transit would be targeted. Tanker traffic has since dropped to near zero, with at least five vessels damaged and over 150 ships stranded outside the waterway.

Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all transits, and Iranian drone strikes on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities took roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity offline. Iraq has begun shutting off production as exports through the strait become increasingly constrained.

OPEC+ moved quickly, agreeing on Sunday to add 206,000 barrels per day in April, above the pre-crisis expectation of 137,000 barrels per day. However, analysts at Rystad Energy noted the increase is largely symbolic while the strait remains inaccessible, as much of the group's spare capacity sits in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of which rely on Gulf export routes. Goldman Sachs warned that a temporary spike to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points.

Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, forecast around 60K, adds further uncertainty to already-weary traders.

WTI daily chart

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $79.78. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends well above both the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strengthening upside trend structure. The sharp acceleration from the low-$60s has opened a clear topside break from the prior consolidation band, with the Stochastic oscillator pushing into overbought territory and signaling strong but stretched upside momentum. While this warns of the risk of a pause or modest pullback, current positioning of price relative to the moving averages favors dip-buying interest over a deeper reversal as long as recent gains hold above former resistance levels.

Initial support emerges near $74.50–$75.00, where recent breakout levels align with the rising 50-day EMA zone, and a break below there would expose the mid-$70s and then the $70.00–$71.00 area. Below that, the $67.00–$68.00 band marks a deeper corrective floor coinciding with prior consolidation. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the low-$80s, where the current rally is testing fresh highs, with a sustained close above that region opening the door toward the mid-$80s. As long as WTI holds above the mid-$70s support cluster, the technical structure points to further upside attempts after potential overbought digestion.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China has lowered its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5–5.0% after three years of “around 5%”, signalling tolerance for slightly slower expansion while keeping long-term ambitions intact. Fiscal and employment targets remain broadly stable, and ING forecasts GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year, within the new official range.

Lower growth band but ambitions intact

"This year's GDP growth target was reduced to 4.5-5.0%, a slight softening from the more ambiguous "around 5%" target set in the past three years. While it was debatable how much flexibility "around 5%" entailed, most market participants viewed this as within 0.2-0.3pp of 5%. With the new target, there appears to be a tolerance for slower growth, which should give policymakers more flexibility to pursue quality growth, a priority in recent years."

"With that said, the 4.5% threshold represents only a rather limited slowdown; China's longer-term growth ambitions remain unchanged. The government work report outlined an intention for "laying a solid foundation for doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020," a key goal set by President Xi in the past."

"The softer GDP target was in line with our expectations, as we had hints of this outcome earlier when various provinces also revised growth targets lower. Our GDP forecast for the year is 4.6% year-on-year, which would fall within this range."

"In our view, this suggests that while growth stability remains an important objective, the stable fiscal deficit and bond issuance targets indicate a degree of restraint, avoiding relying too much on extra stimulus to drive growth at the cost of growth quality. This may disappoint some watchers who had hoped for a stronger fiscal stimulus push."

"What does this mean for China's economy? The trends we have seen in the past few years are likely to continue, with an increased focus on moving up the supply chain and improving tech self-reliance. The big question mark will be how successful China is in boosting its domestic demand, as domestic confidence remains tepid and continues to restrain this effort."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• USD/CHF recovered above the 50-day EMA as repeated SNB warnings cool Swiss Franc momentum.
• SNB Vice-President Martin reiterated on Tuesday that the central bank's willingness to intervene in FX markets has risen, after Swiss February CPI held near zero and the Franc hit decade highs against the Euro earlier in the week.
• Friday's US NFP report is forecast at around 60K new jobs for February, a sharp slowdown from January's 130K, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%.

USD/CHF rose about 0.44% on Thursday, pushing back above 0.7830 in a session that extended the recovery from last week's lows near the 0.7700 area. The pair has been trading in a wide range between the year-to-date low close to 0.7600 and resistance around 0.7830 since early February, with alternating bullish and bearish candles reflecting the tug-of-war between safe-haven Franc demand and growing SNB pushback.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has stepped up its intervention rhetoric sharply this week. An unsolicited statement on Monday warned of readiness to act against rapid Swiss Franc appreciation, and Vice-President Antoine Martin reinforced that message on Tuesday, citing fallout from the US-led conflict in Iran as a key driver of safe-haven flows. Swiss February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on Wednesday, showed inflation holding near zero for a fifth consecutive month, underscoring the deflationary pressure that a stronger Franc is placing on the Swiss economy. With the SNB's policy rate already at 0.00% and the bar for negative rates high, markets see FX intervention as the more likely tool ahead of the March 19 policy decision.

On the US Dollar side, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in January, with minutes showing several officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation stays above target. Attention now turns to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where consensus sits around 60K for February after January's above-trend 130K print. A soft number could revive rate-cut expectations, while a firmer reading would reinforce the Fed's extended pause.

USD/CHF daily chart

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.7826. The pair holds a mild bullish near-term bias as it grinds higher above recent lows while remaining capped well below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages near 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, which still frame a broader downtrend. Price has reclaimed and is consolidating just above the flattish 50-day EMA, hinting at an attempt to build a base within the lower range. The Stochastic oscillator has advanced from oversold territory to the mid-60s, signaling improving upside momentum but not yet a strong impulsive leg, consistent with a corrective rebound rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Initial support emerges at the 50-day EMA around 0.7810, protecting the recent swing area near 0.7760, where a break would expose deeper downside toward the 0.7700 region. On the topside, immediate resistance sits at the 0.7860 zone, with a daily close above it needed to open the way toward the 0.7920 area, where the descending 200-day EMA starts to exert stronger supply. A failure to hold above the 50-day EMA would weaken the current bullish bias and shift focus back to range support levels, while sustained trading above 0.7860 would validate further corrective gains toward the higher moving average cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses Fitch Ratings’ decision to cut Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to negative while affirming the BBB rating, following a similar move by Moody’s. She highlights concerns over policy uncertainty, fiscal framework changes and ambitious growth targets, noting that these factors could keep Indonesian yields supported and the currency under pressure in coming months.

Fitch outlook cut and policy concerns

"Fitch Ratings joined its peer Moody’s, in changing Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ on Wednesday, while affirming the ‘BBB’ rating."

"Backing the outlook change, the agency said“ increasing policy uncertainty and erosion of Indonesia's policy mix consistency and credibility amid growing centralisation of policymaking authority."

"It added that an ambitious growth target of 8% would necessitate strong support from social welfare spending and fiscal-monetary easing, which without commensurate pickup in revenues could pose risks to macro stability."

"Lastly, plans to revisit the longstanding fiscal framework as part of a review of the State Finance Law included in the 2026 legislative priorities were also seen as potentially weakening policy credibility and raising concerns about the ability to finance high fiscal deficits. A negative outlook change typically reflects a cautious view on the sovereign, opening the window for follow-up action over the next 18-24 months."

"The shift in the domestic outlook, together with the broader geopolitical situation in the Middle East, is likely to limit the scope for a relief rally in onshore financial markets, supporting yields while keeping the currency under pressure."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• NZD/USD drops to 0.5878 as the US Dollar hits a two-day high.
• A daily close below 200-day SMA could expose 0.5815 and 0.5800.
• RSI turning bearish signals risk of deeper pullback toward 0.5737.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) plummets during the North American session on Thursday as high US Treasury yields underpin the Greenback, which is registering a new two-day high as the Middle East conflict escalates. NZD/USD trades at 0.588, down nearly 1% and slightly above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the time of writing.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The technical picture shows some Kiwi Dollar weakness with the NZD/USD pair about to turn bearish if it ends daily below the 200-day SMA at 0.5876. In the last two days, the spot price has hovered around the latter. Still, buyers prevented sellers from winning the battle, which would open the door to test lower prices.

If NZD/USD finishes the day below the 200-day SMA, look for a test of the 100-day SMA at 0.5817. On further weakness, the next stop would be 0.5800, ahead of falling towards the January 19 swing low of 0.5741.

With the price action structure and momentum turning bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it is important to closely monitor the NZD/USD daily close below the 200-day SMA.

NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold drops 1.35% as DXY climbs above 99.20 and Treasury yields rise.
• Jobless claims steady at 213K; layoffs plunge to 48.3K, signaling resilient labor market.
• Fed easing bets trimmed to 35 bps ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Gold price erased the previous day's gains on Thursday, hitting a two-day low as precious metals are pressured by high US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar, underpinned by solid US jobs data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,069, down more than 1.35%.

Solid US jobs data offsets geopolitical tensions, pushing XAU/USD to a two-day low

Safe-haven flows are favoring the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is rising over 0.50%. The DXY, which measures the American currency performance against other six, exchanges hands at 99.27.

Tensions in the Middle East remain high, as the war enters its sixth day. The campaign is set to continue as Israel is set to attack Iran’s underground missile sites. Attacks on ships continued Thursday, adding two to the previously attacked seven. Also, Iran threatened to retaliate after a US submarine torpedoed a warship, which killed more than 80 sailors.

Strong US jobs data may prompt the Fed to reconsider its policy

Given the backdrop, bullion prices are set to extend their gains, but solid economic data in the US outweighed geopolitics.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 28 came at 213K, the Labor Department reported, coming in slightly below expectations of 215K and pointing to continued labor market resilience. Earlier, Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showed announced layoffs fell to 48.3K in February, down 55% from January.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) revealed its Beige Book. Officials stated that “economic expectations were optimistic with most (Fed) districts expecting slight to moderate growth in the coming months.” Regarding employment conditions, policymakers revealed that conditions are “generally stable in recent weeks as seven of the twelve districts reported no change in hiring.”

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin added that recent inflation data raises questions about whether the central bank has fully subdued price pressures. He added that sticky inflation and solid jobs data could shift the risks outlook for the Fed.

The Trump administration submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to succeed the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose period as Fed chief ends in mid-May.

Up next, the US economic docket will feature February’s Nonfarm Payrolls report with economists expecting the economy to add 59K people to the workforce and the Unemployment Rate to remain steady at 4.3%.

Investors pricing in a less dovish Fed

Money markets had priced in 35 basis points of Fed easing towards the year’s end, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold consolidates within $5,000-$5,100

Price action remains constructive, but Gold could edge lower if it drops below the $5,000 figure. Momentum is turning negative as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI accelerates its fall towards its neutral level, an indication of buyers’ reluctance to push prices higher.

With that said, in the short-term, XAU/USD could re-test $5,000, but traders need to clear key support at $5,050. A breach below $5,000 exposes key support at $4,950, followed by the February 17 cycle low at $4,841 and the 50-day SMA near $4,810.

Conversely, if Gold surpasses $5,100, the first resistance is the March 4 peak at $5,206, ahead of the February 24 high at $5,249, and then $5,300.

TD Securities analysts note that changes in trading conditions will not dramatically alter Canada's growth outlook, pointing to manufacturing's small GDP share and pre-existing investment weakness. They highlight that interminable CUSMA talks and the geopolitical environment increase uncertainty, but rising energy prices offer an offset by pushing back rate cut expectations.

Energy prices offset despite CUSMA uncertainty

"As much as we are keeping on top of all the to and fro's of the Canada-US negotiations, we can't help but feel that – barring a material change in the relationship - incremental changes in trading conditions aren't going to alter the broader growth outlook. Manufacturing makes up less than 10% of Canadian output, and has held up better than feared through the first year of the trade dispute. Uncertainty is weighing on investment intentions, but business investment was already a sore spot in the Canadian economic picture prior to the trade disruptions."

"The Canadian economy finds itself caught between competing narratives. Interminable CUSMA negotiations reinforce underlying (and often exaggerated) fears around the health of the broader economy. The recent surge in energy prices has provided somewhat of an offset in sentiment terms, removing most of the cut pricing in the front-end in Canada."

"Governor Macklem has cut a nervous figure in 2026, taking great pains to emphasize that uncertainty is high, and all options are on the table when it comes to future policy decisions. We'd suggest that the rapidly deteriorating geopolitical environment is not going to lessen the pervasive sense of uncertainty."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Pound has been one of the better performing G10 currencies recently, supported by reduced expectations for Bank of England easing. The bank no longer expects further BoE rate cuts this year, citing sticky UK inflation, higher gas prices and the UK’s sensitivity to energy costs, which could keep UK CPI above target and weigh on growth and confidence.

BoE on hold as inflation stays sticky

"Measured from the end of last week, the pound is the fourth best performing G10 currency, outperforming the EUR which is languishing towards the bottom of the table.

"It is likely that GBP’s better tone vs. the EUR in recent sessions has been derived from a loss of hope regarding the prospects of BoE rate cuts in the coming months."

"Rabobank no longer expects the BoE to be in a position to announce further easing this year. Previously the call had been for two more rate cuts this year in March and June."

"Ahead of the Middle East crisis, a March 19 BoE rate cut had been widely expected by the market, with further easing looking likely later in the year. Currently, the market is priced for just one more 25 bp BoE rate cut this cycle on a 6-month view, while market expectations for a rate cut this month have fallen sharply."

"The recent surge in gas prices triggered by supply concerns related to the Middle East conflict threatens to upend UK inflation expectations, resulting in a more cautious stance by the BoE."

"The removal of March rate cut hopes coupled with higher energy prices clearly threatens to have a detrimental impact on both confidence and UK growth potential."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• The Dow dropped over 800 points on Thursday as an Iranian missile strike on an Oil tanker reignited fears of prolonged supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
• West Texas Intermediate crude surged 6% to above $79 per barrel, its highest level since June 2025, while Brent crude topped $84.
• Broadcom rallied after posting a strong earnings beat, with AI chip revenue more than doubling year-over-year and a bullish $22 billion revenue guide for next quarter.
• Weekly jobless claims came in flat at 213K, slightly below expectations, keeping the labor market picture steady ahead of Friday's February employment report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 840 points, or 1.73%, to 47,885 at the time of writing, giving back all of Wednesday's gains and then some. The S&P 500 fell 0.82% to around 6,810, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.50% to the 22,690 region. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.65% to land near 2,590, with small caps bearing the brunt of the risk-off shift. Thursday's selling was broad, but the Dow's underperformance was notable, dragged lower by defensive and consumer staple names including Merck (MRK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Walmart (WMT), all falling more than 2%.

Iran conflict sends Oil to nine-month highs

The catalyst for Thursday's selloff was a fresh escalation in the Middle East. Iran claimed it struck an Oil tanker with a missile, according to state media reports, while the British Navy confirmed a large explosion at a tanker at anchor in Iraqi territorial waters. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures surged 6% to trade above $79 per barrel — its highest since June 2025 — while Brent crude jumped 3% to over $84. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ground to a halt since the US-Israeli war against Iran began last weekend, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard having ordered the strait's closure and threatened to attack any vessel that passes through. Around 20% of global Oil consumption is exported through the waterway. President Trump said earlier in the week that the US would provide political risk insurance for tankers and, if necessary, US Navy escorts, but the missile strike on Thursday undercut that reassurance.

Rate cut bets narrow as Oil-driven inflation fears build

The sharp move higher in crude is starting to filter into rate expectations. Traders are now positioning for just a single Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year, down from expectations of multiple cuts as recently as last week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is roughly a 96% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75% at its March 18 meeting. The repricing reflects growing concern that a prolonged conflict could push energy costs sustainably higher, reigniting inflationary pressures just as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data from late February already rattled markets with a hotter-than-expected print. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday, adding to the pressure on equity valuations. The combination of sticky inflation and geopolitical risk premium has created a difficult backdrop for the Fed, which had been widely expected to resume cutting later this year.

Broadcom bucks the selloff with blockbuster AI earnings

Broadcom (AVGO) was a rare bright spot, rallying around 6% after reporting first-quarter results that beat on both the top and bottom line. The chipmaker posted earnings per share of $2.05 versus $2.03 expected and revenue of $19.31 billion versus $19.18 billion estimated, a 29% increase year-over-year. The standout was AI revenue of $8.4 billion, up 106% year-over-year, driven by surging demand for custom AI accelerators and networking chips. CEO Hock Tan told analysts the company has a line of sight to AI chip revenue exceeding $100 billion in 2027. Broadcom guided second-quarter revenue to approximately $22 billion, implying 47% year-over-year growth, and announced a new $10 billion share repurchase program. Salesforce (CRM) also outperformed, gaining nearly 5%, while Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM (IBM) eked out modest gains in an otherwise ugly session for the Dow.

Gold and safe havens hold firm above $5K

Gold continued to attract safe-haven flows on Thursday, trading around $5,175 per ounce — up roughly 1% on the day — as the widening Middle East conflict kept demand elevated. The precious metal has climbed about 20% year-to-date, supported by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and a softer US Dollar. Silver was also firmer, rising over 1% to around $84.50. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) disclosed that it has resumed share buybacks for the first time since 2024, with new CEO Greg Abel purchasing $15 million worth of stock personally. Abel told CNBC he consulted with Warren Buffett on the timing and valuation. Bitcoin also continued to attract interest as an alternative haven, trading above $71K after gaining roughly 5% on Wednesday.

Labor market steady ahead of Friday's payrolls report

Thursday's weekly initial Jobless Claims data showed filings unchanged at 213K for the week ending February 28, slightly below the consensus estimate of 215K. Continuing claims rose by 46K to 1.868 million, modestly above the 1.850 million expected. The data points to a labor market that remains stable, with low firing activity offsetting a gradual slowdown in hiring. Initial claims filed by federal employees — closely watched for signs of disruption from government shutdowns — fell by 25 to 529. The focus now shifts to Friday's February Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where economists expect payroll growth of around 60K and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. A weak print could reignite rate cut speculation, while a hot number would further cement the single-cut-in-2026 narrative that took hold this week.

Dow Jones daily chart