Forex News
- The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as higher oil prices boost demand for the Greenback by Indian importers.
- Fresh concerns over India Inc.'s earnings projections have dampened the FIIs interest in the Indian stock market.
- This week, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy.
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after a brief pause in the last two trading days. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.50 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian Rupee
Higher oil prices keep Indian Rupee under pressure
The uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington.
"I wouldn't say they're considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don't want to get ahead of, and you'll hear directly from the president, I'm sure, on this topic," Leavitt said.
On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but "still not good enough”.
FIIs continue to offload their stake in Indian stock market
In the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc.'s earnings projections.
Fed to hold interest rates steady
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR aims to revisit all-time high above 95.20
USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- AUD/USD falls to near 0.7175 as the US Dollar gains ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting.
- The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.
- Australian Q1 CPI data is expected to arrive higher at 4.1% YoY.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.16% lower at around 0.7175 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) outperforms its major currency peers ahead of the two-day Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which will start later in the day.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.56% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | 0.07% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.07% | 0.10% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.07% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.05% | 0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.15% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.28% | 0.45% | |
| CAD | -0.21% | 0.06% | 0.12% | -0.11% | -0.00% | 0.16% | 0.35% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | 0.07% | 0.12% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.19% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.56% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.39% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 98.70.
Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their current levels for the third meeting in a row, and will likely warn of upside inflation risks amid elevated oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly higher ahead of the Aussie Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released on Wednesday. Inflationary pressures in the Australian economy are estimated to have grown strongly by 4.1% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.6%.
Signs of Australian inflationary pressures accelerating would prompt expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the May policy meeting. In March, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades slightly lower at around 0.7175 at the press time. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7107, suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 61 stays in positive territory, hinting that upside momentum is still intact even as price consolidates near recent highs.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 0.7107, where buyers are likely to defend the current advance and maintain the broader uptrend structure. A daily close below this level would soften the constructive tone and open room for a deeper correction towards the psychological level of 0.7000.
Looking up, the price could approach 0.7300 if it manages to break decisively above the multi-year high of 0.7222.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Quarterly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Apr 29, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 3.6%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects an uneventful Hungarian National Bank (MNB) meeting, with all surveyed economists and market pricing pointing to unchanged rates over the next six months. Earlier expectations for more than 60 basis points of hikes have been repriced to more realistic levels, suggesting a quiet session for the Hungarian Forint (HUF) after its strong post‑election rally, which the bank sees as potentially welcome.
Unspectacular MNB meeting after rally
"The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is holding its monthly meeting today, but it would be a major surprise if interest rates were to change."
"All economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate this outcome, and market expectations also suggest that rates will remain unchanged over the next six months."
"This is particularly important to note, given that prior to the last central bank meeting at the end of March, the market had priced in more than 60 basis points of rate hikes for the coming months."
"We were already sceptical back then as to whether the MNB could truly meet such high expectations. Following this repricing, however, market expectations now look significantly more realistic."
"In short, there are unlikely to be any surprises from the MNB today, suggesting a quiet day for the HUF. After the significant rally following the recent election, however, this may actually be welcome."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale analysts note USD/JPY failed to sustain a breakout above its multi‑year range and is consolidating above the 50‑day moving average. They highlight a crucial support zone around 158.30/157.50 and resistance near 160.50. They lnote that the downward pressure stemming from the hawkish 6-3 BoJ split is being offset by oil-driven dynamics, keeping USD/JPY supported.
Crucial support and resistance levels
"For the BoJ, the dissent of three hawks supposedly keeps the central bank on course to rates to 1% in June or July on the condition that peace talks make progress in the Gulf and oil prices come off the boil. The central bank revised up its inflation forecast and sees medium- to long-term inflation expectations settling around 2% between 2H FY26 and FY27."
"Hawks will however remain in the minority if oil prices remain elevated and large-scale supply chains disruptions occur. The BoJ warns in its risk analysis of slower growth through a significant decline in corporate profits and households' real income. This could push down underlying CPI inflation."
"USD/JPY attempted a breakout above the upper boundary of its multi-year range, but the move lacked follow through. This has led to the formation of a small consolidation base above the 50 DMA."
"The moving average, together with the lower edge of this base at 158.30/157.50, represents a crucial support zone. There would be risk of a deeper decline if this is breached. The recent pivot high near 160.50 acts as an interim resistance."
"Retracement cut short as oil weighs, profit taking stalls prior to 50dma (158.39). Hawkish 6-3 BoJ split lifts implied June odds to 73% from 62%."
"Support 157.50, resistance 160.50."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $73.42 per troy ounce, down 2.78% from the $75.52 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have increased by 3.29% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 73.42 |
1 Gram | 2.36 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 63.01 on Tuesday, up from 62.01 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
ING’s Warren Patterson raises ICE Brent forecasts as prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persists and peace talks between the US and Iran stall. The new base case assumes a gradual resumption of oil flows from May and June, with volumes staying below pre-war levels and Brent averages lifted for both 2Q26 and 4Q26.
Brent outlook lifted on supply risks
"In our base case, we initially assumed that we would start to see a gradual resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in April. However, this has clearly not materialised. Therefore, we are updating our base case assumptions and, as a result, revising higher our ICE Brent forecasts."
"We are now assuming that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will slowly start resuming in May and June, and remain below pre-war levels for most of the year. This longer return allows for the gradual resumption of upstream production, which has had to shut-in due to storage constraints. It also allows for potential infrastructure damage, which could further slow the return to pre-war levels."
"Our new base case sees ICE Brent averaging $104/bbl ($96 previously) over 2Q26, while the significant inventory drawdown and slow recovery towards pre-war flows sees Brent averaging $92/bbl ($88/bbl previously) over 4Q26."
"Low inventories and the need to restock, whether commercial or strategic reserves, also suggests that oil prices will remain relatively well supported for the foreseeable future."
"The upside risks to this assumption are a near full closure of the Strait of Hormuz persisting through May, which would likely see Brent finding a floor above $100/bbl for the remainder of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD loses ground as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid stalled US–Iran peace talks.
- President Trump appears unlikely to accept Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The RBNZ may stay cautious or tighten policy to return inflation to the 2% midpoint.
NZD/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) advances due to increased safe-haven demand amid stalled United States (US)-Iran peace talks.
US President Donald Trump appears unlikely to accept Iran’s proposal to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio signaled that any deal excluding Iran’s nuclear program is unlikely to be considered. Iran proposed reopening Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, while postponing nuclear discussions.
The Greenback also strengthens on rising expectations of prolonged higher rates from the Federal Reserve. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at Wednesday’s April meeting, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive pause. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh has emphasized policy independence, even as markets continue to price in a more aggressive rate-cutting path ahead.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to stay cautious or consider tightening to return inflation to the 2% midpoint amid persistent price pressures. Markets are pricing in a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in May following a hot inflation report for the first quarter, with price pressures expected to intensify further in the second quarter as the full impact of higher energy costs feeds into the data.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Forex Market News
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