Forex News
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to April after reporting 5.0% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday. The data came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.
Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 31.2K in May, compared with a revised increase of 8.3K in April and the expected 25.8K gain.
The Employment Change data came in at 100K in April against 148K recorded in March, better than the 80K expected.
Meanwhile, Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, in the UK ticked up by 3.4% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in April versus a 3.4% growth booked previously. The market expectation was for a 3.2% print.
Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings, including Bonus, climbed by 4.4% in the same period after increasing by 4.4% (revision) in the quarter through March. The data beat the estimate of 4.0%.
The British Pound (GBP) edges slightly higher in an immediate reaction to the UK employment report. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading 0.14% higher on the day to trade at 1.3310.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.05% | -0.27% | -0.35% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.13% | -0.26% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.18% | -0.12% | -0.25% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.11% | -0.23% | -0.36% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.33% | -0.46% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.33% | -0.13% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.16% | -0.16% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
What do United Kingdom employment report data mean for the British Pound?
The UK's Employment Report is one of the most closely watched economic releases as it provides insights into the health of the labor market, wage growth, and inflationary pressures. The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor mamarket. ong all the indicators, average earnings growth is particularly important because of its direct link to inflation and the Bank of England (BoE) decision-making.
Stronger-than-expected employment and wage growth data could provide some support to the GBP by prompting the BoE to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. On the other hand, weaker labor market conditions generally weigh on the British Pound by increasing expectations for monetary easing.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keep a bearish vibe in near term
In the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a modest bearish bias as price holds beneath the 20-period simple moving average from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day moving average. The pair is hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 40 hints at weak downside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, suggesting pressure remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim the overhead averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band/20-period simple moving average near 1.3408, followed by the 100-day moving average at 1.3455, with the upper Bollinger Band around 1.3513 acting as a higher cap if gains extend. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3305 forms immediate support; a clear break below this level would open the door to further weakness, while holding above it could encourage a corrective bounce back toward the clustered moving-average resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue May 19, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 5%
Consensus: 4.9%
Previous: 4.9%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- USD/JPY hovers near 160.80, the highest level since July 2024 reached on Thursday.
- Japan's Minoru Kihara warned that the government is ready to respond appropriately to volatile currency moves at any time.
- US Dollar declined amid easing safe-haven demand following a preliminary US-Iran MoU to end the war.
USD/JPY inches lower after four days of gains, trading around 160.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair surged to 160.80 the previous day, marking its highest level since July 2024 and significantly heightening speculation that Japanese authorities could soon intervene to support the struggling Yen.
In response to the currency's rapid decline, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated during a Thursday press conference that the government remains "ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time." Kihara emphasized that officials are closely monitoring market developments and comprehensively evaluating their economic impact.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair surrendered some gains as the US Dollar weakened due to fading risk aversion. This shift followed a BBC report confirming that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran.
However, the Greenback's downside may be limited, with potential to rebound against major peers as odds rise for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year. According to the Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections, half of the FOMC members still expect at least one rate hike in 2026. Despite recent economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, a resilient US labor market and persistent underlying inflation continue to fuel monetary tightening pressures.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD gains positive traction as the USD drifts lower in reaction to the US-Iran peace deal.
- The ECB’s rate hike signal supports the Euro, while hawkish Fed bets should limit USD losses.
- The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from its lowest level since late March, around the 1.1480-1.1475 region touched the previous day. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to a fresh daily high, around the 1.1525 area in the last hour.
The US-Iran deal, aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosts investors' confidence and prompts some USD profit-taking following Wednesday’s strong move up to a fresh high since late March. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal lends some support to the shared currency and the EUR/USD pair. However, rising bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December could limit USD losses and cap the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keep a bearish near-term tone. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 38. Momentum indicators together suggest that downside pressure persists even as the EUR/USD pair attempts to stabilize above the recent swing lows.
Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a hurdle near the 1.1575-1.1580 horizontal support breakpoint ahead of the 1.1600 round figure. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA at 1.1638 should act as a strong barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery. On the downside, acceptance below the 1.1500 mark would expose the EUR/USD pair to further weakness as momentum remains skewed to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7985 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The Fed voted unanimously to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its June policy meeting.
- The Swiss National Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.
The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 0.7985 during the early European session on Thursday. The United States (US) and Iran signed an interim agreement that would end the Iran war, weighing on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its interest rate decision later on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the agreement is taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both Washington and Tehran.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its June policy meeting while signaling the possibility of higher rates later this year as the central bank gauges the inflation effects of the Iran conflict.
Traders have now fully priced in a rate hike in the coming months as the US central bank focuses on price stability over employment. A hawkish tone from the Fed could support the Greenback in the near term.
The SNB is expected to keep its key policy rate at 0% at the June policy meeting on Thursday and for the rest of the year, according to all the economists who responded to a Reuters poll.
"With those opposing forces from FX and energy prices at play and Switzerland's low inflation starting point, we think inflation pressures weigh less on the SNB than on most central banks ... Our base case remains the zero‑interest‑rate policy stays in place until end-2027,” said Chiara Angeloni, Europe economist at Bank of America.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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