Forex News
- EUR/JPY gives back recent gains and comes under pressure around 183.60.
- ECB keeps rates unchanged and highlights rising uncertainty on inflation and growth.
- Japan strengthens its intervention rhetoric, supporting the Japanese Yen.
EUR/JPY declines and trades around 183.60 at the time of writing, after hitting two-week highs above 187.50, amid mixed pressures from European monetary policy and rising intervention risks in Japan.
The European Central Bank (ECB) leaves its key interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, as expected, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4% and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank notes that incoming data has been broadly in line with its expectations, but warns that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified, particularly due to rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The ECB emphasizes a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and reiterates that it is not pre-committing to any specific rate path. It also highlights that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although short-term expectations have increased significantly.
On the Japanese side, pressure builds on the Japanese Yen (JPY) following firm comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who signals that the time for decisive action in the foreign exchange market is approaching. These remarks come as USD/JPY moved above the key 160.00 level, reviving speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.
At the same time, rising Oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, weigh on Japan’s economic outlook as a major energy importer, limiting the JPY’s upside despite intervention warnings.
In the Eurozone, macroeconomic data sends mixed signals. Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, beating expectations, but the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.4%, pointing to ongoing labor market fragility. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone accelerated, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increasing by 3% YoY in April, above forecasts.
Market focus now shifts to the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde for further guidance on the future path of monetary policy.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.25% | -2.21% | -0.09% | -0.48% | -0.61% | -0.89% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.09% | -2.04% | 0.03% | -0.33% | -0.48% | -0.73% | |
| GBP | 0.25% | 0.09% | -1.93% | 0.13% | -0.23% | -0.37% | -0.64% | |
| JPY | 2.21% | 2.04% | 1.93% | 2.13% | 1.75% | 1.55% | 1.30% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -2.13% | -0.39% | -0.56% | -0.80% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.33% | 0.23% | -1.75% | 0.39% | -0.14% | -0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.61% | 0.48% | 0.37% | -1.55% | 0.56% | 0.14% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | 0.89% | 0.73% | 0.64% | -1.30% | 0.80% | 0.39% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected at 13:05 GMT to say that EUR/JPY was trading around 183.60, not 186.60)
- The Australian Dollar gains sharply against the US Dollar even as the Fed stressed to hold interest rates steady for longer.
- The US Q1 GDP grows 2% Year-on-Year, misses 2.3% estimates.
- Market participants expect the RBA to raise interest rates again in May.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reflects a mixed performance against its major currency peers, trading 0.5% higher to near 0.7150 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early North American session on Thursday. The outlook of the antipodean remains firm amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver more interest rate hikes during the year.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.26% | -2.12% | -0.08% | -0.46% | -0.62% | -0.87% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.09% | -2.04% | 0.06% | -0.30% | -0.46% | -0.72% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.09% | -1.93% | 0.15% | -0.20% | -0.36% | -0.63% | |
| JPY | 2.12% | 2.04% | 1.93% | 2.10% | 1.72% | 1.51% | 1.26% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -2.10% | -0.39% | -0.56% | -0.80% | |
| AUD | 0.46% | 0.30% | 0.20% | -1.72% | 0.39% | -0.15% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.62% | 0.46% | 0.36% | -1.51% | 0.56% | 0.15% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.87% | 0.72% | 0.63% | -1.26% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Market experts are of the view that the RBA will raise interest rates again in May as inflationary pressures in Australia have accelerated further.
On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was in line with estimates at 1.4%, significantly higher from 0.6% seen in the last quarter of 2025. On an annualized basis, the CPI data arrived higher at 4.1%, as expected, from the previous reading of 3.6%.
According to analysts at Westpac, “A May hike is locked in, and we hold to our base case that there will be two further rate hikes, in June and August," Reuters reported.
In the March policy meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% and the stated that inflationary pressures were already high before the spike in oil prices amid Middle East conflicts.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar underperforms its major peers even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has stressed the need to hold interest rates at their current levels for longer amid global market uncertainty.
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after leaving interest rates unchanged that the “current policy stance is appropriate,” warning that “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.”
On the economic data front, the US flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has arrived at 2% on an annualized basis, lower than estimates of 2.3%, but higher than the previous reading of 0.5%.
(This story was corrected at 12:55 GMT to say in the second bullet that the US Q1 GDP grows 2% YoY, not 2.3%)
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
- US annual PCE inflation climbed to 3.5% in March.
- USD Index stays deep in negative territory at around 98.50.
Inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. This print came in line with the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index rose 0.7%.
The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2% on a yearly basis, following the 3% increase recorded in February and matching analysts' estimate.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index recovered slightly from session lows with the immediate reaction to this report. At the time of press, the index was down 0.5% on the day at 98.50.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance falls to 189K for the week ending April 25, while they were expected to have remained steady at 215K from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up from 214K.
The 4-week moving average was 207,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 210,750 to 211,000.
Market reaction
No significant reaction from the US Dollar (USD) is observed after the data release. As of writing, US Dollar Index (DXY) trades 0.5% lower around 98.45.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- US GDP expanded by 2.0% YoY in the January-March period.
- The US Dollar Index trades with decent losses near 98.40.
The US economy is expected to have expanded at an annualised rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), missing market forecasts, although coming up from the prior 0.5% expansion.
From the BEA’s release: “The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were investment, exports, consumer spending, and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, also increased.”
Market reaction
Following the disappointing data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in negative territory, hovering above the 98.40 region in the wake of the release.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.25% | -2.27% | -0.10% | -0.43% | -0.61% | -0.91% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.05% | -2.11% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.44% | -0.72% | |
| GBP | 0.25% | 0.05% | -2.03% | 0.12% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.67% | |
| JPY | 2.27% | 2.11% | 2.03% | 2.19% | 1.88% | 1.64% | 1.35% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.06% | -0.12% | -2.19% | -0.33% | -0.53% | -0.81% | |
| AUD | 0.43% | 0.25% | 0.18% | -1.88% | 0.33% | -0.18% | -0.46% | |
| NZD | 0.61% | 0.44% | 0.37% | -1.64% | 0.53% | 0.18% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.91% | 0.72% | 0.67% | -1.35% | 0.81% | 0.46% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the preliminary US GDP for the first quarter at 11:00 GMT.
- The United States Gross Domestic Product is seen expanding at an annualised rate of 2.3% in Q1.
- Investors will focus on the potential impact of the US-Iran conflict on the economy.
- The US Dollar remains in recovery mode following April lows.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its preliminary estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, with analysts expecting the data to show annualised growth at a solid 2.3%, a sharp rebound from the meagre 0.5% expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
Markets brace for US growth data amid geopolitical woes…and a new Fed?
Investors are anxious ahead of Thursday's release of the US preliminary GDP figures for the January-March period, which is generally seen as the most market-moving estimate of the three issued each quarter. Beyond headline growth, the report also includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.
This quarter’s numbers are especially important, as market participants will look for early signs, if any at all, of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, as well as delayed effects from Trump’s tariffs, all with the broader White House administration policies at the centre of the debate.
The release follows the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting, where the Committee delivered a widely anticipated “on hold” decision on the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR).
Also included in the report is the GDP Price Index, commonly called the GDP deflator, which measures inflation across all domestically produced goods and services, including exports but excluding imports. These data will become more prominent amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its clear impact on crude Oil prices.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, closely watched for its real-time tracking of economic activity, forecast a 1.2% expansion in Q1 GDP as of its April 21 update (from 1.3% set on April 9).
When will the GDP print be released, and how can it affect the US Dollar Index?
The US GDP report, due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, could prove pivotal for the US Dollar (USD) in case of a big surprise in either direction, as markets remain almost exclusively focused on developments from the Middle East. Alongside the headline growth figure, markets will scrutinise updates to the GDP Price Index and the Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, key data points that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the Greenback’s direction.
A stronger-than-expected GDP print may temporarily ease fears of a stagflationary environment, potentially offering a tailwind for the current recovery of the buck.
The broader technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains slightly constructive amid the ongoing consolidative price action. The index is trading near its 200-day SMA at 98.53 and below its 200-week SMA at 103.13.
Downside levels remain in focus, with support eyed at 97.63 – April’s low. Any upside correction could first target the 2026 ceiling at 100.63 seen in late March, seconded by the March 2025 high of 104.68.
Momentum indicators lean bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart near 47 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) just below 23, suggesting fading strength behind the recent upward move.
(This story was corrected on April 30 at 10:32 GMT to say that data is expected to show a sharp rebound from the meagre 0.5% expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2025, not of 2024.)
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Apr 30, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.2%
Previous: 3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Price Index
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index, released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the change in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. The prices that Americans pay for imports aren’t included. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressures, which may anticipate higher interest rates. A high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Apr 30, 2026 12:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: -
Previous: 3.7%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Commerzbank’s strategists report that Gold has faced pressure from higher Oil prices and shifting US rate expectations, even briefly dipping below USD 4,500. While World Gold Council (WGC) data show robust investment and central bank demand, they warn that a prolonged Hormuz blockade raises downside risks, with only cautious upside on any Middle East détente.
Investment demand offsets macro headwinds
"The gold price has come under renewed pressure following the rise in oil prices, as this has also pushed US interest rate expectations higher. In March, the market temporarily shifted from expecting rate cuts to even pricing in a possible rate hike. As a result, gold at times fell below USD 4,500 per troy ounce."
"The longer the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the greater the downside risks for gold are likely to become. Conversely, the market is likely to react only very cautiously with gold purchases to any rapprochement between the US and Iran in the negotiations, as signals in this direction have recently tended to be disappointed rather quickly."
"And the outlook? Fundamentally, the WGC sees gold demand as well supported by geopolitical factors. These will drive central bank purchases, demand for gold ETFs, and demand for bars and coins."
"We agree with these assessments, provided — contrary to how things currently appear — the parties to the conflict in the Middle East war reach an agreement. For then, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to gradually become passable again, which would dampen oil prices and inflation risks, and accordingly also the risk of a central bank taking countermeasures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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