Forex News
- GBP/USD falls as the strong US Dollar capitalizes on robust US economic data and mixed geopolitical headlines.
- Trump claimed Iran agreed to nuclear inspections, but Iran countered that real negotiations have not yet started.
- Markets rallied as Keir Starmer's resignation sparked a swift Labour leadership transition, avoiding a prolonged political contest.
GBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair depreciated as the US Dollar (USD) gained momentum, driven by a combination of robust domestic economic data and a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape.
Traders are carefully weighing the conflicting signals surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal. While US President Donald Trump stated that Iran had "fully and completely" agreed to open its facilities to nuclear inspections, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly moderated expectations, clarifying that substantive negotiations on the nuclear issue have not actually begun.
Compounding these tensions, Iran’s chief negotiator warned that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status and will remain firmly under Iranian oversight. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts elsewhere picked up as a fresh round of Washington-hosted talks commenced between Israel and Lebanon, aiming to halt the ongoing conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
The Greenback’s strength was further solidified by strong macroeconomic indicators that reinforced the narrative of "US exceptionalism." June’s flash estimate for the US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52.2, comfortably beating May’s reading of 51.5 and signaling healthy business expansion across both major sectors. The manufacturing sector showed remarkable resilience, with output jumping to 55.7 from the previous month's 55.1, easily outperforming forecasts of 54.8. Simultaneously, the Services PMI printed at 51.3, ticking up from May's 50.7 and clearing the consensus estimate of 51.0, proving that demand in the broader service economy remains sticky.
The British Pound (GBP) found a degree of stability as domestic political anxiety began to clear. Investors reacted positively to signs that a prolonged, disruptive Labour leadership contest would likely be averted following Keir Starmer's sudden resignation. Andy Burnham has rapidly emerged as the clear frontrunner to take the helm of the party. With key backing from former health secretary Wes Streeting, the risk of a drawn-out, fractious battle for control has been heavily reduced, giving the market reassurance of a swift and orderly political transition.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/USD declines to around 1.1380 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Trump insisted Iran agreed to more UN nuclear inspections
- Expectations of US rate hikes could support the US Dollar.
The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note near 1.1380 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The major pair extends the decline as traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had "fully and completely" agreed to allow nuclear inspections, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier that real negotiations on the "nuclear issue" haven't started yet. Iran's chief negotiator stated on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will "never return to its pre-war conditions" and that Iran will maintain control of the vital waterway.
A fresh round of talks between Israel and Lebanon began in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, in an effort to end fighting in Lebanon between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. Any signs of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East or a lack of progress in the US-Iran peace agreement could weigh on the riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
An unexpectedly hawkish Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh last week boosted expectations for a year-end interest rate hike, supporting the Greenback. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 37.4% chance of at least 25 basis points (bps) at its July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the June monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.
Key quotes
One member said it’s become more suitable to modify monetary support as currency moves raise import costs
One member says suitable to keep raising interest rate as financial conditions remain accommodative
Even after June rate increase, central bank must keep option for further hikes if economy, prices follow forecasts.
One member says policy rate should be raised toward neutral level as soon as possible.
One member said central bank must raise policy rate near neutral soon to prevent large, abrupt hikes later.
Japan's neutral rate is about 2%, BOJ should raise rates every few months.
Cabinet office representative states BOJ must ensure accountability on rate hike, take proactive, appropriate steps amid excessive economic fluctuations.
Cabinet Office rep says BOJ must assess macroeconomic effects of shrinking balance sheet, take steps for market stability.
One member notes concern over economic slowdown has eased.
Downside risks to output, employment could disrupt virtuous cycle between wages and prices, possibly drive Japan back into deflation.
Downside risks to output, employment could disrupt virtuous cycle between wages and prices, possibly drive Japan back into deflation.
One member warns firms' active price-setting could drive inflation higher.
One member notes wholesale price increases clearer, especially in distribution costs, may impact core inflation.
Inflation expectations shift, negative real rates boost lending, CP issuance and asset prices.
Global AI demand is boosting economic activity and prices beyond expectations.
One member said even if crude oil prices decline, upward price pressures likely to spread across broader range of items.
One member says no justification to stop lowering JGB purchases.
Market reaction
Following the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.02% on the day to trade at 161.60 as of writing.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Australian CPI data could reshape RBA tightening expectations.
- Tech-led equity rout drives safe-haven flows into Greenback.
- Strong US PMIs reinforce exceptionalism before Core PCE release.
The Australian Dollar collapsed by over 1.20% on Tuesday as risk aversion favoured flows into the Greenback amid expectations of higher US interest rates, while the Aussie fell. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6915 after dropping from daily highs of 0.7005.
AUD/USD crashes as AI rout sparks US Dollar stampede
Worldwide equity markets tumbled on Tuesday as investors rotated out of high-tech companies, particularly AI-related ones, amid frothy valuations. This sent the Korean KOSPI tech index down over 10% and the Nasdaq down over 3%.
In the FX markets, the Greenback was the broad winner during the session, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.39% at 101.38.
US data showed that business activity in June expanded healthily across both sectors, manufacturing and services, reaffirming US exceptionalism. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict talks continued, and there has been progress, according to Iran’s ambassador to the UN.
A definitive resolution to the conflict could push Oil prices to pre-war levels, tempering global inflationary woes. This can ease bond yields across G8 economies and prevent further tightening by major central banks, as money markets have priced in.
For 2026, investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to tighten by 34 basis points. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to hold rates unchanged at 4.35%, though it’s the only central bank that reversed its easing cycle, hiking rates by 75 bps in 2026.
In Australia, the economic schedule will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, which is expected to dip from 0.4% MoM to -0.3%, while the core print is projected to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM. On an annual basis, the headline CPI is seen at 4.4%, up from 4.2%, while the core CPI is expected to tick a tenth higher to 3.5%.
The upcoming US economic calendar includes S&P Global Flash PMIs and housing data. Thursday's schedule is packed with reports on Q1 2026 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Price Index, and Initial Jobless Claims.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6914, extending a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the triple simple moving average (SMA) cluster, which now caps the pair around 0.7135. The rebound from higher levels has given way to a deeper setback that leaves price under all referenced moving averages and former rising trend supports, while the Relative Strength Index (14) slipping to about 28 suggests oversold conditions that may slow, but not yet reverse, the downside pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the triple SMA area near 0.7135, with further barriers emerging at the reclaimed upward trend-line projections around 0.7189 and 0.7264, before more distant resistance at 0.7984 and 0.8487. On the downside, structural support is comparatively sparse, with the primary reference coming in near the prior downward trend-line break around 0.6436, where buyers could attempt to build a more durable floor if the decline extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.74% | -0.05% | 0.13% | 0.32% | 1.39% | 1.22% | 0.27% | |
| EUR | -0.74% | -0.79% | -0.53% | -0.38% | 0.70% | 0.43% | -0.45% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.79% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 1.42% | 1.22% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.53% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 1.23% | 1.05% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.32% | 0.38% | -0.36% | -0.13% | 1.08% | 0.92% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -1.39% | -0.70% | -1.42% | -1.23% | -1.08% | -0.20% | -1.10% | |
| NZD | -1.22% | -0.43% | -1.22% | -1.05% | -0.92% | 0.20% | -0.90% | |
| CHF | -0.27% | 0.45% | -0.31% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 1.10% | 0.90% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold price declines to near $4,100 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Concerns about lingering inflation tend to weigh on the precious metal.
- Futures traders have priced in that the Fed is likely to hike rates by the end of this year.
Gold price (XAU/USD) loses momentum to around $4,100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the decline as traders cement views on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking interest rates this year.
Gold has faced some selling pressure since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28. The recent agreement between Washington and Tehran has eased pressure on energy prices, but the inflationary impact may linger, leading to solidified market views on the Fed raising rates this year to tackle elevated costs.
Also, an unexpectedly hawkish Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh last week boosted expectations for a year-end interest rate hike, contributing to the yellow metal’s downside. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Traders are now pricing in nearly an 86.1% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower,” said Deutsche Bank AG analyst Michael Hsueh. The bank cut its price forecast to $4,300 for the third quarter (Q3), down by more than a fifth from the prior outlook and to $4,800 for the final three months of the year.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (PCE) data for May will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. This report could offers some hints about the US interest rate path this year.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- GBP/USD fell to a fresh near-term low on Tuesday after UK flash PMIs missed across the board.
- A late-session bounce lacked conviction and barely dented the June downtrend.
- With no UK data left this week, Thursday's US PCE print and a run of Fed speakers will drive direction.
Sterling spent Tuesday confirming what the macro backdrop already implied, that the United Kingdom has no growth story to sell right now. June flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings undershot across the board, the Services gauge sliding to 48.7 against a 50.0 consensus and deeper into contraction. Cable sold into the data, dipping just under 1.3200 before a late bid dragged it back near the handle. The recovery looks hollow; the Pound still closed lower, well inside the month's slide.
A rebound without a reason
The genuinely odd part is that Cable bounced at all on a day when every domestic input pointed lower and firmer US PMIs kept the US Dollar bid. There was no UK data beat behind the lift and no shift in Bank of England (BoE) rate pricing; the move looked like a short-covering twitch, not a Sterling-specific bid. Intraday momentum agrees, with the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) rolling over as the bounce stalled near 1.3200. On the daily chart the structure stays firmly bearish, with price well below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3400 and the 200-day EMA just beneath it; the Pound is catching its breath, not recovering.
Nothing on the UK docket
From here the calendar becomes the problem for anyone hoping Sterling can lead its own recovery. The rest of the week carries no top-tier UK releases at all, leaving a scattering of BoE speakers as the only domestic input; the line-up skews dovish. With Downing Street still rudderless after the Prime Minister's resignation and no growth catalyst in sight, nothing scheduled could hand the Pound a reason to rally on its own. That leaves Cable a passenger for the back half of the week, its direction set almost entirely by moves in the Dollar.
Thursday's PCE is the catalyst that counts
The week's lone market-mover lands Thursday at 12:30 GMT, when the US releases the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve (Fed) watches most closely. Core PCE is seen at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, both above the prior month. A hot print would validate the hawkish hold the Fed delivered last week and the higher-for-longer signal in its dot plot.
With near-term easing no longer priced, an upside surprise extends Dollar strength and shoves Cable back toward its lows. The same window brings the final first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading, Durable Goods Orders, and jobless claims, plus Fed speakers across both days; Friday's University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment and inflation expectations are a footnote.
Level watch
Resistance: The first ceiling sits near 1.3250, which capped Tuesday's early trade, with 1.3300 above it. The real wall is the moving-average cluster around 1.3400, where the 50-day and 200-day EMAs have flattened and converged; until Cable reclaims that zone, rallies are selling opportunities, not a base.
Support: The line in the sand is the recent low around 1.3150, which also marks the April trough and the floor of the year's range; a daily close beneath it confirms the breakdown and opens the way toward the 1.3100 handle. Tuesday's dip under 1.3200 was bought. With no UK catalyst to defend it, that support is a speed bump, not a foundation.
Bias: Bearish while price holds below the 1.3400 EMA cluster. With Sterling stripped of any domestic catalyst this week, the play is to sell rallies toward 1.3250 for a retest of 1.3150. A hot PCE print Thursday breaks that floor and opens 1.3100; only a soft inflation surprise and a daily close back above 1.3300 forces a rethink.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Risk-off tech rout lifts Greenback to fresh YTD highs.
- Falling WTI pressures CAD despite hotter headline inflation.
- Core PCE, GDP and jobless claims drive Dollar’s next move.
The Loonie registers losses of 0.40% on Tuesday as the US Dollar refreshes year-to-date (YTD) highs, while falling Oil prices weighed on the CAD, with USD/CAD trading above 1.4200 for the first time since April 2025.
USD/CAD breaks above 1.4200 Oil slide crushes Loonie
Sentiment turned sour, led by global tech shares, which plunged with no headline involved; yet there’s speculation that extremely high valuations and month-, quarter- and half-year-end flows could have been involved. Consequently, the risk-off environment bolstered the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), posted gains of over 0.36% at 101.36.
US data was positive; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 55.7 from 55.1 in May, beating forecasts of 54.8. The report showed activity improved as companies front-loaded orders to avoid shortages and rising prices, driven by the US-Iran war energy shock.
In Canada, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem commented that the latest inflation report showed price increases concentrated in energy but noted that food inflation was a concern. Despite this, money markets do not expect a rate hike by the BoC until December, with odds at 57.4%.
On Monday, Canada's inflation data rose more than expected to 3.2% in May, but the core print was more subdued. This is sparked by Oil prices dropping, as WTI, the US crude Oil benchmark, loses over 1.40% on Tuesday, down to $73.00 per barrel.
On Wednesday, the Canadian docket will feature speeches by BoC officials Rogers and Breeden. In the US, housing data is expected, followed by Thursday’s busy schedule with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, GDP for Q1 2026 and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 20.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.4211, extending a firm bullish bias as spot holds well above the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) grouped near 1.3805 and continues to respect the rising support trend line that has recently underpinned prices around 1.4158. The Relative Strength Index (14) at roughly 88 sits deep in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum remains strong but also warns that the latest advance is stretched and vulnerable to a corrective pause if buying interest fades.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the rising trend line around 1.4158, where a pullback could attract fresh bids and keep the broader uptrend intact, with the SMA cluster near 1.3805 providing a more distant but significant structural floor if a deeper correction unfolds. With no clearly defined resistance levels immediately overhead from the available metrics, the pair’s upside appears open in the near term, though any further gains are likely to be increasingly challenged as overbought conditions persist.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.36% | -0.05% | 0.36% | 1.24% | 0.73% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | -0.04% | -0.44% | -0.03% | 0.82% | 0.34% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | 0.04% | -0.36% | 0.03% | 0.88% | 0.37% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.44% | 0.36% | 0.38% | 1.26% | 0.76% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.38% | 0.89% | 0.40% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | -1.24% | -0.82% | -0.88% | -1.26% | -0.89% | -0.47% | -1.09% | |
| NZD | -0.73% | -0.34% | -0.37% | -0.76% | -0.40% | 0.47% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | 0.27% | 0.18% | -0.16% | 0.18% | 1.09% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, June 24:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to a one-year high near 101.40 on Tuesday as investors digested the latest S&P Global US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which showed business activity remained resilient. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 in June, its highest level since May 2022.
The ADP Employment Change 4-Week Average improved to 30.75K, supporting the view that the US labor market remains firm enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) cautious.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.42% | 0.41% | -0.03% | 0.37% | 1.26% | 0.80% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.42% | -0.02% | -0.48% | -0.07% | 0.80% | 0.36% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | -0.41% | 0.02% | -0.43% | -0.03% | 0.84% | 0.38% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.48% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 1.28% | 0.83% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.37% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.39% | 0.89% | 0.44% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | -1.26% | -0.80% | -0.84% | -1.28% | -0.89% | -0.43% | -1.08% | |
| NZD | -0.80% | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.83% | -0.44% | 0.43% | -0.66% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | 0.28% | 0.25% | -0.16% | 0.22% | 1.08% | 0.66% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell 0.4% on the day to 1.1380 amid soft Eurozone data. The Eurozone Composite PMI improved to 49.5 in June from 48.5, but stayed below the 50.0 threshold, showing that private-sector activity continued to contract. Germany also remained a weak spot, with its Composite PMI falling to 48.0, the lowest level in 18 months, as services activity deteriorated.
GBP/USD remained under pressure near 1.3200 after the UK PMI figures showed renewed weakness in the services sector. The United Kingdom (UK) Services PMI fell to 48.7 from 49.3, marking the sharpest contraction since January 2023, while the Composite PMI dropped to 49.4. The data reinforced concerns over weak UK growth and came after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Taylor said that an extended hold in rates remains the correct policy response.
USD/JPY trades muted near 161.50 in a neutral zone as investors assessed US PMIs, ADP data, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook. Strong US activity data offered some support to the Greenback, but weaker employment details inside the PMI report limited upside momentum. The Yen also remained sensitive to intervention risks as the pair continues to trade near historically elevated levels.
AUD/USD fell sharply to a two-month low near the 0.6910 level as investors await Australia’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due on Wednesday. The previous April report showed annual inflation slowing to 4.2% from 4.6%, while Trimmed-mean Inflation edged higher to 3.4% YoY, keeping attention on sticky underlying price pressures.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $73.30 per barrel as markets monitor increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in US-Iran talks. Oil prices remained under pressure after the US granted Iran a 60-day Oil sanctions waiver, easing fears of a prolonged disruption, although shipping risks and uncertainty in the region kept traders cautious.
Gold fell near $4,120 as a resilient US Dollar limited bullion upside. Easing US-Iran tensions reduced part of the geopolitical bid for the metal, while stronger US data and expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive limited upside momentum.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, June 24:
- Australian CPI
- BoJ Summary of Opinions
- BoC Summary of Deliberations
Thursday, June 25:
- US PCE
- US GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Australian Jobs
Friday, June 26:
- Tokyo CPI
- Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
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