Forex News

Commerzbank's Commodity Analyst Barbara Lambrecht highlights that Copper has surged to record levels on the London Metal Exchange, supported by structural demand from the energy transition and data centers. At the same time, the US is considering extending tariffs to refined Copper from 2027, encouraging pre-emptive stockpiling and tightening supply outside the US. Chinese production data due next week will be closely watched.

Record prices and looming US tariffs

"In the base metals markets, sentiment remains positive despite another significant rise in energy prices: The London Metal Exchange index even hit a new record high this week. A ton of copper cost more than USD 14,000."

"In addition to concerns about a shortage of copper ore, fears of an expansion of US tariffs on metal imports are likely also playing a role in the current copper price rally. The US Department of Commerce is expected to decide by the end of June whether to extend the existing tariffs to refined copper."

"The original proposal called for the introduction of a 15% tariff effective January 1, 2027. One year later, this was to be increased to 30%."

"In contrast, imports nearly doubled last year, likely due to stockpiling ahead of the potential introduction of tariffs. This trend could intensify again as the US Department of Commerce’s decision draws nearer."

"And indeed, since mid-April, inventories on the COMEX have already begun rising again, which is tightening supply outside the US."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

ING’s Carsten Brzeski argues that Europe has yet to earn its “global euro moment” outlined by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2025. Despite progress on initiatives like the Savings and Investment Union and capital markets reforms, he stresses that fragmented capital markets and large, underused household savings continue to limit the Euro’s strategic international role.

Structural savings and market fragmentation persist

"And one year ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde stood in Berlin and declared that the fracturing global order had created Europe’s “global euro moment”: a rare chance to step up, earn influence, and reshape the international monetary system in Europe’s favour. Twelve months on, let’s be honest: the optics are not good."

"And yet – to borrow from Monty Python’s Life of Brian – what has Europe ever done for us? Well, over the last 12 months: the Savings and Investment Union, launched in March 2025. A securitisation reform. A market integration and supervision package. Updated payment services rules. A Savings and Investment Accounts recommendation. EIB [European Investment Bank] defence investment tripled. EU defence spending is up 36% since 2022. A joint letter from Europe’s six largest economies demanding capital markets agreement by the summer."

"Europe’s “global euro moment” is still waiting to be earned. The more useful question, perhaps, is not what the Romans have done for us but what we are still willing to do for them. The window is open."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• NZD/USD hits two-week lows near 0.5840, on track for a more than 2% weekly decline.
• Higher US yields and escalating Oil prices are boosting the US Dollar across the board.
• New Zealand's Business NZ PMI slowed down to a seven-month low of 50.5 in April.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) accelerates its reversal against a stronger US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The pair trades at two-week lows right above 0.5840 at the time of writing, on track to a more than 2% weekly selloff, crushed by a risk-off sentiment amid the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict and higher Oil prices, as Brent crude reaches prices near $110.00.

The US Dollar is marching higher across the board on Friday, boosted by higher US Treasury yields amid rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, following the US inflation data released earlier in the week. Beyond that, US President Donald Trump´s comments affirming that China has agreed to buy Oil from the US have boosted Crude prices, adding pressure on the Kiwi, as New Zealand is a net Oil importer.

In New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI, released earlier on Friday, showed that manufacturing activity slowed down to a seven-month low of 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March, which has failed to improve confidence in the Kiwi.

Technical Analysis: next support is at 0.5815

NZD/USD keeps a clear bearish bias after dropping about 2% over the last four days. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, both hinting at persistent downside momentum despite stretched conditions.

With momentum indicators looking overstretched, there is little room for further depreciation, and sellers might be attracted by the late April lows in the 0.5815 area. Further down, the April 13 low, at the 0.5795 area, seems out of reach today.

Upside attempts, on the other hand, are likely to be limited below a previous support area above 0.5920 (May 13 low) ahead of the weekly top, at the 0.5970 area, and May's peak, right above 0.5990.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Donald Trump says China will buy “billions of dollars” worth of US soybeans.
• Beijing has reportedly agreed to purchase 200 Boeing planes, with potential commitments up to 750 aircraft.
• The US president also mentions possible relief on sanctions targeting some Chinese Oil companies.

United States (US) President Donald Trump made a series of comments on China, Iran and Taiwan on Friday, according to Reuters reports.

Trump said he discussed Fentanyl with Chinese President Xi Jinping and announced that China would buy “billions of dollars” worth of US soybeans. He also stated that Beijing had agreed to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, with a potential commitment of up to 750 planes.

Regarding Iran, Trump said he would make a decision “over the next few days” on potentially lifting sanctions on Chinese Oil companies that buy Iranian Oil. He also said he would support a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear program under certain conditions.

On Taiwan, Trump said US policy had “not changed” and stressed that the United States was “not looking to have wars.”

Key Takeaways

I talked about Fentanyl with Xi.
The farmers are going to be very happy, China is going to be buying billions of dollars of soybeans.
I'm going to make a decision over the next few days on lifting the sanctions on Chinese Oil companies that buy Iranian Oil.
China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes, with a potential commitment of 750 planes.
Boeing planes will have General Electric engines.
Have not approved weapons for Taiwan yet; may do it, may not do it.
Trump on Taiwan policy: Nothing's changed.
Trump on Taiwan: We're not looking to have wars.
Trump on Iran: Says he's ok with Iran suspending nuclear program for 20 years but has to be a 'real' commitment.
Trump tells NYT reporter that his reporting on Iran is 'treasonous'.
Trump disputes reporting that Iran has maintained its missile capacity, says 80 percent gone.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped following Trump’s comments before correcting lower, but it remains up 0.24% on Friday, trading around 99.10 at the time of writing.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes links the Dollar’s trajectory to shifting interest rate and growth differentials, noting that US 2-year Treasury yields have surged since the war with Iran while the Dollar Index has only modestly advanced. He argues the Dollar still has room to rally, with the bank’s end-2026 DXY forecast above Bloomberg consensus.

US yields outpace peers, backing Dollar

"Still, the chart below of the Dollar Index and 2-year Note yields, does tell an interesting story. The dollar was already rallying before the Presidential election and continued to do so until January 2025."

"From September 2025 until the outbreak of the war with Iran, 2-year Treasury yields stayed low, in a 3.4-3.7% range despite strong economic growth, an investment boom and signs of inflationary pressures at the margin. Over the same period, the Dollar Index meandered around in a 96-101 range, with EUR/USD trading between 1.14 and 1.21."

"The war changed the interest rate outlook, with 2-year yields rising by over 6% since it started. The dollar has rallied, but only modestly compared to the rate moves we are seeing."

"Even so, the trend (US 2-year yields rising faster than we are seeing elsewhere) is clear enough."

"The day between a Europe-wide holiday and the weekend isn’t a good time to make bold predictions about what will happen next, but the dollar has room to rally from here."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Gold price has retreated sharply as markets price in renewed US rate hikes after strong producer price data. Rising US Treasury yields are increasing the opportunity cost of holding Gold, while India’s steep import tax hike is set to curb physical demand. The new Fed Chair may struggle to justify rate cuts.

Rate expectations and Indian tax shock

"The price of gold has fallen by up to 2% today to USD 4,560 per troy ounce. Before the price drop began yesterday, it was still trading at around USD 4,700. Headwinds are coming from interest rate expectations."

"Following the significantly higher-than-expected US producer price data for April, the market now anticipates interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. A 15-basis-point rise in US key interest rates is priced in by the end of the year, and a full 25-basis-point rate hike by March 2027. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to a one-year high of 4.54%, representing an increase of around 20 basis points compared with the previous week. This raises the opportunity cost of holding gold."

"The gold price faced further headwinds this week from another source. In India, the tax on gold imports was raised from 6% to 15%, which is likely to dampen demand for gold in India somewhat."

"India’s gold imports had already fallen to a 30-year low in April following a tax hike and could now decline even further."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• The US Dollar strengthens after solid US Retail Sales data, supporting gains in USD/CHF.
• Stephen Miran’s resignation clears the way for Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, potentially.
• Persistent deflation in Switzerland continues to weigh on the CHF, reducing expectations of SNB rate hikes.

USD/CHF extends its advance for the fourth consecutive day on Friday and trades around 0.7850 at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day. The pair benefits from the rebound in the US Dollar (USD), supported by resilient US economic data and renewed risk-off sentiment across markets.

US Retail Sales rose by 0.5% MoM in April, in line with expectations, following a 1.6% increase in March. On an annual basis, sales climbed 4.9%, above forecasts of 3.3%, highlighting the resilience of US consumer spending despite still elevated borrowing costs.

The US Dollar also benefits from developments surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed). Stephen Miran’s resignation from the Board of Governors fuels speculation about Kevin Warsh potentially becoming the next Fed Chair. At the same time, persistent tensions in the Middle East continue to support expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer, further underpinning the Greenback.

The cautious market mood usually supports safe-haven currencies, but the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains pressured by domestic monetary policy expectations. Swiss producer and import prices fell 2% YoY in April, extending a long-running deflationary trend. This dynamic significantly reduces the likelihood of monetary tightening by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which could keep its policy rate at 0% or intervene in foreign exchange markets to prevent excessive Swiss Franc appreciation.

However, Swiss consumer sentiment data came in less negative than expected, at -40 versus forecasts of -46, suggesting some resilience in the domestic economy. This could limit downside pressure on the Swiss Franc, although the current momentum remains supportive for the US Dollar.

• The Indian Rupee slumps to a fresh lifetime low against the US Dollar due to multiple headwinds.
• Firm oil price outlook and growing concerns over India’s forex reserves are hurting the Indian Rupee.
• Improving US-China trade relations and pared dovish Fed bets are supporting the US Dollar.

The Indian Rupee (INR) slides to a fresh all-time low against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair jumps to 96.00 as the Indian Rupee faces intense selling pressure due to growing concerns over India’s foreign exchange reserves, following centre’s decision to hike import duty on Gold and Silver.

Increase in import tariffs on precious metals boosts concerns over forex reserves

On early Wednesday, the Indian government announced import tariffs on Gold and Silver to 15% from 6%. The move was aimed at discouraging the general public from purchasing precious metals to ease pressure on the nation’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves. This weekend, Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi urged citizens to postpone their non-essential gold purchases for a year.

According to a report from the Economic Times (ET), the precious metal accounts for over 9% of the country's total imports. India's imports in 2025-26 was USD 775 billion.

However, it appears that the decision has sentimentally impacted investors, raising concerns over the sufficient availability of forex reserves by the Indian government to pay for imported items.

Indian government hikes energy prices by 3%

Earlier in the day, the Indian government announced an increase in prices of petrol and diesel by Rs. 3 per litre, in an attempt to partly offset the impact of a significant increase in crude oil prices. So far this year, the WTI Oil price has increased almost 70% to $98, and is expected to remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, remains closed amid conflicts between Iran and the United States (US).

Higher oil prices have hit the Indian Rupee badly in the past few months. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

FIIs turn out to be net buyers on Thursday

Foreign Institutional investors (FIIs) turned out to be net buyers in the Indian stock market on Thursday after remaining net sellers in the previous seven trading days. However, the investment deployed was Rs. 187.46 crore, significantly lower than the seven-day average selling of Rs. 4,144.01 crore.

A marginal improvement in sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market appears to be the expectations that the Indian government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) are considering various measures to improve the inflow of foreign capital flows. According to a report from the Indian Express, the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India are now weighing a fresh set of measures to attract foreign capital inflows, including a possible cut in the withholding tax on government bonds, which is 20% at present.

Improving US-China trade relations strengthen US Dollar

The US Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) posting a fresh over two-week high near 99.20, is also strengthening the USD/INR pair. The Greenback trades firmly, following signs of improving trade relations between the US and China after the President Donald Trump-Leader Xi Jinping meeting.

In addition to improving US-China trade relations, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady at their current levels or raise them this year to curtail elevated price pressures are also offering strength to the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR posts fresh all-time high at 96.06

USD/INR jumps to 96.06 as of writing. The pair extends its advance above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.79, maintaining a clear bullish near-term bias.

The rising EMA underpins the uptrend structure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.54 leans toward overbought territory without yet signaling exhaustion, suggesting buyers still retain control for now.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-period EMA at 94.79, with a break below this dynamic floor likely signaling a corrective phase after the recent strong run-up. Looking up, the pair could extend its upside toward 97.00 if it manages to stabilize above 96.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

TD Securities economists expect Canadian Manufacturing Sales to rise 3.2% month-on-month in March, slightly below market consensus. They highlight higher gasoline prices and a 20% jump at the pump as key drivers, alongside stronger transportation products. However, real manufacturing sales are seen as muted due to higher industrial prices, implying only a mild tailwind for Canadian GDP.

Energy and autos drive nominal manufacturing gains

"We look for manufacturing sales to rise another 3.2% m/m in March, building on their 3.6% gain the prior month (market: +3.5%). Higher gasoline prices will provide the key driver with a 20% increase in the price at the pump which will translate to an outsized contribution from petroleum refineries in March."

"Transportation products will provide another tailwind on stronger auto production, while other components should see more modest gains, consistent with the smaller increase for non-energy exports in March."

"Real manufacturing sales should see a muted performance with the 2.4% m/m increase for industrial prices, which would translate to only a mild tailwind for industry-level GDP."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)