Forex News
Rabobank’s RaboResearch team notes recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Barkin and Goolsbee align with a more hawkish FOMC tone, emphasizing persistent core CPI, especially in services, and justifying further rate hikes. The September dot plot signals one more hike and then a prolonged hold through 2027, as markets await October US CPI data and its implications for US yields.
Fed signals and CPI in focus
"A few Fed speakers crawled out of the woodwork yesterday to opine on the inflationary environment in the US, including alternate voter Barkin, from the Richmond Fed, and non-voter Goolsbee from Chicago. Rhetoric from both broadly aligned with the now more hawkish lilt across the FOMC, citing the persistence of core CPI inflation, especially in services, and the justification for future hikes."
"That said, the dot plot from the September SEP (which is noticeably missing a dot from Fed chair Warsh) projects one more Fed hike, followed by a hold throughout 2027, even as many FOMC board members project a second hike in 2027."
"Bloomberg-surveyed analysts are forecasting some cooling from 0.6% m/m to 0.3% m/m, as national US average gasoline prices fell throughout October from September highs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights a strong rebound in US equities, with the S&P 500 posting its best day since the Iran ceasefire announcement in April. The move was led by AI-related and semiconductor names after positioning had turned underweight. The index has almost fully recovered its post-midterm losses, while volatility, as measured by the VIX, fell sharply.
AI and semis fuel equity rally
"Markets have put in a very strong performance over the last 24 hours, with all the main risk factors fading into the background."
"So in turn, that meant the S&P 500 (+2.35%) built on Friday’s recovery and posted its strongest day since the Iran ceasefire announcement in April."
"The index is now "only" down -0.25% in the four business days since the midterms."
"This strength was clearest in the most AI-exposed assets, which continued to recover from last Thursday’s slump."
"So all round, investors became a lot more optimistic on the near-term outlook, and the VIX index (-5.72pts) posted its sharpest daily decline since April 2025 when equities rebounded from their post-Liberation Day sell-off."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD may find initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.4062.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 56, indicating positive but not overstretched momentum.
- The immediate resistance lies around the upper boundary of the descending channel at 1.4140.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.4110 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair price is remaining within the descending channel pattern, signalling an ongoing bearish bias.
The USD/CAD pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting underlying demand persists after the latest pullback from recent highs. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 hints at positive but not overstretched momentum, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index staying elevated reinforces a constructive backdrop for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.
On the downside, the USD/CAD pair may fall toward initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.4062, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.4056. A break below the moving averages would put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.3850, followed by the five-month low of 1.3732, recorded on May 21.
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.4140. A break above the channel would support the pair to explore the area around a nearly 18-month high of 1.4299, recorded on October 14.
Fed rhetoric turns more hawkish as officials stress persistent core inflation
Rabobank’s RaboResearch team highlights that “a few Fed speakers crawled out of the woodwork yesterday to opine on the inflationary environment in the US,” including alternate voter Thomas Barkin of the Richmond Fed and non-voter Austan Goolsbee from Chicago. According to the bank, the rhetoric from both officials “broadly aligned with the now more hawkish lilt across the FOMC,” as they pointed to the “persistence of core CPI inflation, especially in services,” and underscored the “justification for future hikes.”
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.10% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.06% | -0.20% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.23% | -0.01% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.15% | 0.08% | 0.16% | -0.11% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.15% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.26% | -0.22% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.16% | -0.08% | 0.08% | 0.09% | -0.18% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | -0.02% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.24% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/GBP accelerates its recovery on Tuesday and nears the range top in the 0.8360 area.
- The sharp decline in Oil prices is boosting the Euro while the BoE's hawkishness keeps GBP dips limited.
- A clear break of 0.8360 would confirm a bottom at 0.8320 and shift the focus towards the 0.8400 area.
The Euro (EUR) accelerates gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, after the mild recovery witnessed in the previous three days, favoured by falling Oil prices and a more positive market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the last two weeks’ trading range, between 0.8320 and 0.8360, although momentum indicators show an initial bullish impulse.
Both currencies have rallied against the US Dollar in the last few days, but the Euro has been showing a mild competitive advantage, amid the sharp decline in Oil prices –Brent Oil has dropped 20% in about a week, which has taken a great burden off the Eurozone economies’ shoulders.
The Pound, on the other hand, is drawing support from the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish monetary policy stance following last week’s decision. The BoE hiked its Bank Rate by a quarter point, to 4%, as expected last Thursday and left the door open for further monetary tightening ahead. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production data, due on Thursday, will be carefully analysed to confirm those projections.
Technical Analysis: Above 0.8360, the focus will shift to the 0.8400 area
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8358, with the immediate trend showing a modest bullish bias, although it remains within a 40-pip range, just above 19-month lows. Momentum indicators in four-hour charts have turned positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just under 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just above zero, hinting that buyers retain the short-term initiative.
Bulls, however, should break resistance at the 0.8360-0.8365 area (October 30, November 3 highs), to confirm a deeper correction towards the October 26 high at the 0.8400 area and the October 19 and 20 highs near 0.8430.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below the range bottom at 0.8320 might find some support at the late February 2025 highs, just above 0.8300, ahead of the 2025 low at 0.8246.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.09% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.20% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.26% | -0.00% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.08% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.17% | -0.10% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.04% | -0.24% | -0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.10% | -0.18% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.10% | -0.28% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 0.18% | 0.28% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.24% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/JPY gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Dismal domestic data undermines the JPY, though intervention risks could help limit deeper losses.
- The BoE’s hawkish tilt supports the GBP amid a softer USD, further acting as a tailwind for the cross.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts buyers for the second straight day and advances to mid-212.00s during the first half of the European session on Tuesday amid a combination of supporting factors.
Data released earlier today showed that Japan's Household Spending fell 6.8% from a year earlier in September, marking the 10th consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest drop since September 2020. This complicates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans for further interest rate hikes, which, along with the prevailing risk-on mood, contributes to the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative underperformance and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained a hawkish communication relative to the BoJ, keeping the yield advantage firmly in favor of the British Pound (GBP). Moreover, a softer US Dollar (USD) further benefits the GBP, which is seen as another factor supporting the GBP/JPY cross. JPY bears, however, remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the domestic currency and bets on an imminent BoJ rate hike.
In fact, the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's October monetary policy meeting revealed that some policymakers called for speeding up the pace of interest rate hikes as underlying inflation reached the central bank's 2% target. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further gains for the GBP/JPY cross. Traders now look to the preliminary UK Q3 GDP on Wednesday for a fresh impetus.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.89% | -0.76% | -0.21% | -0.02% | -0.75% | -1.34% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.69% | 0.89% | 0.24% | -0.44% | 0.85% | |
| GBP | 0.76% | -0.15% | 0.53% | 0.73% | 0.10% | -0.60% | 0.70% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.69% | -0.53% | 0.18% | -0.61% | -1.13% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.89% | -0.73% | -0.18% | -0.76% | -1.35% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.75% | -0.24% | -0.10% | 0.61% | 0.76% | -0.68% | 0.51% | |
| NZD | 1.34% | 0.44% | 0.60% | 1.13% | 1.35% | 0.68% | 1.32% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | -0.85% | -0.70% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.51% | -1.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Bank Indonesia interventions continue to bolster the Indonesian Rupiah.
- Dropping crude oil prices and reduced US-Tehran geopolitical tensions have significantly eased global inflationary and import pressures.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve comments and rising December rate hike odds provide underlying support to limit US Dollar losses.
USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 18,060 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair fell as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) drew support from broader regional gains and falling crude oil prices, which helped ease the country’s import bill. Bank Indonesia (BI) further stabilized the currency through market intervention, supported by a slight rise in foreign exchange reserves for October.
Indonesia growth outperforms as Q3 GDP tops expectations
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU note that Indonesia’s latest activity data surprised positively, with “Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth surprised to the upside, accelerating to 5.47%yoy from 5.29% in Q2, beating the 5.2% consensus.” They highlight that the stronger outturn underscores resilient domestic demand and export performance, reinforcing the view that underlying growth momentum remains solid even as broader investor confidence and portfolio flows remain more fragile.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faced downward pressure as safe-haven demand waned following growing speculation over a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. US President Donald Trump reinforced this shift by stating that further military strikes against Iran appeared unnecessary, describing the conflict as "militarily, effectively over" while maintaining that US forces remain "locked and loaded" to support regional stability. Meanwhile, crude oil prices falling to their lowest levels since August continued to ease global inflationary concerns.
Despite the Dollar's broader softness, downside potential for the greenback was cushioned by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Strong Nonfarm Payrolls data alongside firm comments from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Consequently, market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a December Fed rate hike rising to 84%, up from 76% the previous day.
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that the Indian Rupee has been a key beneficiary of lower Oil prices and renewed foreign equity inflows, with USD/INR dropping to its lowest level since April. Improved terms of trade and reduced pressure on the import bill and margins are supportive, while India’s equity market is attracting sizeable foreign capital compared with other Asian markets.
Rupee gains on Oil and flows
"INR has emerged as a key beneficiary of the recent combination of lower oil prices and returning foreign equity inflows, with USD/INR falling below 94.00 to its lowest since April."
"Lower crude improves India’s terms of trade and eases pressure on the import bill and corporate margins."
"Meanwhile, foreign investors bought a net $5.2bn of Indian equities last week, with inflows accelerating towards the end of the week. This contrast with net foreign equity selling in South Korea and Taiwan."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Deutsche Bank’s US economists expect October US CPI to slow sharply from September’s strong reading, with both headline and core seen at 0.20% month-on-month. They note this is the last CPI release before the next Fed meeting and that markets will watch the implications for PCE inflation. A missing year-on-year figure due to last year’s shutdown is also highlighted.
Last inflation check before Fed
"Last month’s CPI print for September was a very strong one, with the fastest monthly headline CPI in six months, at +0.65%."
"However, this time, our US economists expect inflation to have come down from its September pace, with both headline and core at +0.20% on the month."
"However, this report will be slightly unusual because we won’t get a year-on-year number for inflation."
"That’s because of last year’s government shutdown, which meant the October 2025 inflation level wasn’t produced, so there isn’t a number from last year to compare it to."
"Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for October, and we’ll also get the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
