Forex News
According to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its interest rate again by the end of December and possibly as soon as October, keeping further rate rises in view through next year.
86% of economists expect the BoJ to raise its key interest rate to 1.25% by the end of the fourth quarter (Q4), up slightly from 79% in a June survey.
70% of economists anticipate the BoJ to hike rates to at least 1.50% in Q2 of 2027, while 51% of respondents see 1.50% as the terminal rate.
58% of economists see the impact of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yield increase on Japan's debt-financing costs in the next 2-3 years 'very' or 'somewhat' concerning.
79% of economists said the USD/JPY pair around the 160 level is too weak relative to Japan's economic fundamentals.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.05% on the day at 163.07.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- USD/JPY consolidates as traders remain on high alert amid looming intervention risks.
- The wide US-Japan rate differential keeps the JPY carry-trade active and lends support.
- The focus now shifts to the crucial FOMC and BoJ monetary policy meetings next week.
The USD/JPY pair ticks lower during the Asian session on Thursday as bulls opt to move to the sidelines amid speculations that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the domestic currency. Nevertheless, spot prices remain close to a four-decade high, touched on Tuesday, and currently trade just above the 163.00 mark.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the government was ready to take decisive action on foreign exchange as needed. Apart from this, hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations lend some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned on the back of a stark contrast in monetary policy between Japan and the rest of the world.
Despite the recent BoJ rate hike to 1%, or the highest since 1995, and reports that officials are open to raising interest rates at a faster pace, borrowing costs in Japan remain exceptionally low relative to other major economies, including the US. This keeps the so-called carry trade active, which has been a key factor behind the JPY's underperformance. Furthermore, economic risks stemming from energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict undermine the JPY.
Rabobank notes that “over the past few weeks the market has been debating whether the MoF is deliberating over a change of tactics with respect to how it can support the JPY.” However, the bank cautions that, “irrespective of how and when intervention may be deployed, it is unlikely on its own to change the direction of a currency pair.” In Rabobank’s view, “for that to happen, the fundamentals (or the perception of fundamentals) will also have to alter,” underscoring that durable Yen support will ultimately depend on a broader shift in Japan’s underlying economic and policy backdrop rather than on FX operations alone.
In fact, the US and Iran traded strikes for a 12th night in a row, while Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis opened a new front in the war and declared a blockade on a key Red Sea shipping route. Adding to this, a significant fall in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11, fueling inflationary concerns. This, in turn, bolsters Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which favors USD bulls and limits the downside for the USD/JPY pair.
Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, which, along with geopolitical developments, should influence the USD. The market attention will then shift to Japan's national consumer inflation figures, due on Friday. The focus, however, remains glued to the highly-anticipated Fed policy decision and the BoJ meeting next week, which should provide cues about the future policy path and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.98% | 0.29% | -0.92% | -1.40% | -2.36% | 0.63% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.85% | 0.37% | -0.88% | -1.29% | -2.32% | 0.71% | |
| GBP | 0.98% | 0.85% | 1.27% | -0.02% | -0.42% | -1.47% | 1.58% | |
| JPY | -0.29% | -0.37% | -1.27% | -1.27% | -1.76% | -2.78% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.92% | 0.88% | 0.02% | 1.27% | -0.49% | -1.51% | 1.57% | |
| AUD | 1.40% | 1.29% | 0.42% | 1.76% | 0.49% | -1.05% | 2.05% | |
| NZD | 2.36% | 2.32% | 1.47% | 2.78% | 1.51% | 1.05% | 3.11% | |
| CHF | -0.63% | -0.71% | -1.58% | -0.30% | -1.57% | -2.05% | -3.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD edges higher to around 0.5820 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Money markets solidified expectations the RBNZ will raise rates again following a hotter New Zealand inflation report.
- Trump said Washington will destroy one bridge or power plant every time Iran targets a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The NZD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.5820, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Traders await the preliminary reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will be published on Friday.
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% QoQ in the three months ended June, with the annual inflation rate rising to 4.1% from 3.1% in the previous reading, Statistics New Zealand revealed on Tuesday. It was the highest annual rate since December 2023, and the quarterly increase the highest since September 2023.
Hotter-than-expected New Zealand inflation data for the second quarter has reinforced market expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike at the RBNZ's September policy meeting. This, in turn, could provide some support to the Kiwi against the USD in the near term.
On the other hand, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher and might boost a safe-haven currency such as the USD. The US has launched a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran, as Tehran threatened to launch more of its own attacks across the Gulf region. US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb a bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kiwi supported as RBNZ signals further OCR hikes
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad argues that “above target inflation and a more favorable domestic growth outlook argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes which is NZD supportive.” He notes that at its last July 8 meeting, the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.50% and “indicated that ‘further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings,’” reinforcing the constructive backdrop for the Kiwi.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,809.96 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,820.56 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 149,412.40 per tola from INR 149,536.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,809.96 |
10 Grams | 128,101.40 |
Tola | 149,412.40 |
Troy Ounce | 398,434.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- A sustained breakout above resistance targets the EUR/JPY all-time high near 187.95.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 59.46 keeps buyers in control short of overbought territory.
- Pulling back to the triangle exposes initial support at the nine-day EMA around 185.81.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading over the longer one reinforces an upward structure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.46 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that buyers still retain control but face nearby upside constraints.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the currency cross is positioned above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle, suggesting a bullish breakout. Further advances would support the currency cross to navigate the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, a return within the triangle would expose the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 185.81, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.23 and the lower boundary of the ascending triangle near 185.20.
Further declines below the triangle pattern would undermine the bullish setup and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.17% | -0.30% | -0.05% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.12% | 0.15% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.10% | -0.21% | 0.06% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.00% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | -0.00% | 0.10% | 0.12% | -0.14% | 0.13% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.25% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | -0.15% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.10% | -0.01% | -0.18% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US Dollar Index struggles as traders balance renewed inflation concerns against a softening US economic backdrop.
- Unclear guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh clouds the Dollar's long-term outlook.
- Safe-haven demand from persistent Middle East tensions may cap the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 101.00 during the Asian session on Thursday.
The Greenback faces downward pressure as traders weigh renewed inflation concerns, triggered by surging energy costs, against a softening US economic backdrop. While markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, shifting policy expectations and unclear guidance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have added an extra layer of uncertainty to the Dollar's long-term outlook.
However, the downside of the US Dollar could be restrained due to the safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions remained in focus. Tensions escalated sharply after US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure if Tehran targets ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation against US-linked energy assets across the region.
Iran-backed Houthi militants launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The assault marks the first direct strikes on tankers in the waterway, endangering a vital alternative export route for Saudi crude and opening a dangerous new front in the conflict.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- The Swiss Franc regains ground against the US Dollar after underperforming for three straight trading days.
- Fears of a prolonged US-Iran war will likely keep oil prices higher.
- The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) after a three-day losing streak on Thursday. The USD/CHF pair corrects to near 0.8136 after struggling to extend the advance beyond the yearly high at around 0.8152.
The Swiss Franc pair attracts slight bids as the US Dollar corrects despite fears of a prolonged war between the United States (US) and Iran intensifying. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% lower to near 101.00.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.26% | 0.00% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.17% | 0.11% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.22% | 0.05% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.12% | 0.16% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.00% | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.04% | -0.18% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Oil prices are surging continuously amid escalating fears of global energy supply amid the Middle East crisis, a scenario that would add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path, even as US inflationary pressures cooled down in June.
In the Asian session, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed through a post on X that it has completed the 12th round of strikes against Iran.
Earlier in the day, Iran warned of war expansion if the US started attacking Iranian infrastructure. “Our defence doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. This was a response to US President Donald Trump’s post on Wednesday, in which he stated that the US will destroy one bridge or power plant of Iran if Iran bombs a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement next week, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- EUR/USD gains ground as investors anticipate the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision.
- The ECB is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.25%, shifting market focus to Christine Lagarde’s upcoming press conference.
- The US Dollar faces pressure as traders weigh renewed inflation from rising energy costs against a weakening domestic economic backdrop.
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the Euro (EUR) finds solid support ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision.
The ECB is widely expected to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.25%, keeping the market's focus squarely on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s subsequent press conference for clues on future monetary policy.
The US Dollar (USD) faces downward pressure as traders weigh renewed inflation concerns, triggered by surging energy costs, against a softening US economic backdrop. While markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, shifting policy expectations and unclear guidance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have added an extra layer of uncertainty to the Dollar's long-term outlook.
However, the downside of the Greenback could be restrained due to the safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions remained in focus. Tensions escalated sharply after US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure if Tehran targets ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation against US-linked energy assets across the region.
Iran-backed Houthi militants launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The assault marks the first direct strikes on tankers in the waterway, endangering a vital alternative export route for Saudi crude and opening a dangerous new front in the conflict.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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