Forex News
- US private employers added an average of 33K jobs per week in late April.
- Job gains gain extra momentum, building on the previous week’s gain.
Private-sector hiring in the US has added extra momentum in late April. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 33K jobs per week in the four weeks ending April 25.
That marks a marginal uptick from the prior reading, hinting that the recent improvement in hiring may be picking up pace again.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- EUR/USD retreats below 1.1750 after rejection at the 1.1790 area on Monday.
- Concerns about the resumption of hostilities in Iran are boosting the US Dollar on Tuesday.
- US CPI is expected to confirm that Iran's war boosted inflationary pressures in March.
The Euro (EUR) heads lower against the Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, trading right below 1.1750 at the time of writing, after another rejection at the 1.1790 area on Monday. Market concerns about the growing fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire are buoying the safe-haven US Dollar, which is drawing additional support from investors' caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
Market sentiment soured on Tuesday following comments by US President Donald Trump affirming that the US-Iran ceasefire is on “life support”, and reports by the CNN news channel, citing some of his aides, stating that the US president is frustrated with the attitude of Iranian authorities and has brought the possibility of resuming combat operations back to the table.
In the US session, however, the highlight of the day will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Consumer inflation is expected to have accelerated to a 3.7% yearly rate in April, its highest level since September 2023, confirming the inflationary impact of the Middle East war. Core inflation is seen rising to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in March, with USD risk skewed to the upside, as higher-than-expected CPI figures might prompt more Federal Reserve Policymakers to jump on the hawkish side.
In the Eurozone, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index released earlier on Tuesday revealed that institutional investors’ feelings about the German economy improved to -10.2 in May from -17.2 in April, against expectations of further deterioration, to -19.8. The sentiment about the current economic situation, however, has dropped to five-month lows at -77.8, from -73.7 in April, below the -77.5 market consensus. The impact of these figures on the Euro was marginal.
Technical analysis: Next support is at the 1.1725 area
EUR/USD's technical picture shows bearish momentum building up slowly on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 hints at fading bullish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory, suggesting that upside momentum is waning.
On the downside, the first notable support comes in at Friday's low, about 1.1725, ahead of a key support area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which halted sellers several times in April. On the topside, the resistance area between 1.1790 and 1.1800 (May 1, 6, and 8 highs) is expected to test upside attempts ahead of April's peak, at the 1.1850 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue May 12, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.7%
Previous: 3.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue May 12, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.7%
Previous: 2.6%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- EUR/GBP hits a three-week high on Tuesday as UK political turmoil weighs on the British Pound.
- The Euro struggles to gain traction amid concerns over the Eurozone’s exposure to Middle East-driven energy shocks.
- Technically, the cross remains capped below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs despite improving momentum indicators.
EUR/GBP holds firm on Tuesday after hitting a three-week high of 0.8697 earlier in the day, as traders assess rising political instability in the United Kingdom (UK) and stalled US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8679, up roughly 0.25%
The British Pound (GBP) trades on the defensive across the board as pressure continues to mount on Prime Minister Keir Starmer following Labour’s heavy losses in the recent local elections. According to reports, 78 of Labour’s 403 MPs have called on Starmer to step aside, just short of the 81 MPs needed to trigger a formal leadership contest. Meanwhile, Starmer has publicly rejected calls to resign, stating that he will “get on with governing.”
At the same time, the Euro (EUR) is also struggling to gain meaningful traction as concerns over the economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict continue to weigh on sentiment. The Eurozone’s heavy exposure to rising energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz is fueling fears of slower growth and renewed inflationary pressure, leaving the upside in EUR/GBP limited in the near term.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming economic data from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom for fresh direction. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will release preliminary Q1 Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, along with March Industrial Production data.
In the UK, monthly GDP data for March, preliminary Q1 GDP figures, as well as Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data, are scheduled for release on Thursday.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP keeps a capped near-term tone as it holds below both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI has recovered toward 54 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has inched back into slightly positive territory, suggesting modest bullish momentum, yet these signals remain constrained by the overhead moving average barrier.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 100-day SMA at 0.8685, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.8703, with a stronger hurdle at the horizontal resistance level of 0.8730. On the downside, the key structural floor is seen at the 0.8600 horizontal support, where a break would reopen a deeper pullback despite the current attempt to stabilize.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.37% | 0.65% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 0.27% | 0.43% | |
| EUR | -0.37% | 0.27% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.65% | -0.27% | -0.43% | -0.48% | -0.30% | -0.36% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | 0.13% | 0.43% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.48% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | 0.02% | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.11% | 0.36% | -0.03% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.43% | -0.07% | 0.21% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights rising political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) as calls grow for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, with betting markets seeing a high chance he leaves office this year. He notes emerging political risk premium in EUR/GBP and warns sterling could face further pressure as markets assess leadership contenders and fiscal-rule credibility.
Sterling pressured by UK political turmoil
"The pound started coming under pressure yesterday afternoon (after a strong session) as calls for Starmer’s resignation intensified. For the first time in a long time, some political risk premium seems to be emerging in EUR/GBP."
"That is, however, still small according to our model, around 0.3% short-term overvaluation."
"The pound has plenty of additional room to build a negative premium, with markets likely to shift their focus to which candidate holds the best chance of replacing Starmer."
"Notably, sterling came under pressure recently following reports that Burnham could seek a parliamentary seat to advance a leadership bid, reflecting concerns that his views on abandoning the fiscal rule could undermine a key anchor of market confidence in UK public finances."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY’s Bob Savage reports India is considering emergency steps to protect foreign exchange reserves as higher Oil prices widen the current account deficit. Measures under discussion include fuel price hikes, import restrictions on Gold and electronics, and tighter hedging rules. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already intervened to stabilise the Indian Rupee (INR) after it hit a record low, with reserves near $691bn.
Policy toolkit aimed at Rupee stability
"India is considering emergency measures to protect foreign exchange reserves amid rising oil prices and a widening current account deficit."
"Proposed steps include hiking fuel prices for the first time since the Iran conflict began, restricting non-essential imports such as gold and electronic goods, and encouraging public fuel conservation."
"Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged citizens to avoid gold purchases for a year and to limit overseas travel."
"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened to stabilize the rupee, which hit a record low, and may tighten currency hedging rules for importers."
"Foreign exchange reserves stood at $690.7bn as of May 1."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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