Forex News
DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390. The ECB is seen monitoring geopolitics calmly while watching inflation expectations.
Euro pressured but key support eyed
"EUR/USD was pressured during the first half of March, retreating 4% to 1.1415. This correction is primarily due to the geopolitical premium driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which prompted a flight to safety into USD. "
"EUR’s trajectory this week hinges on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on March 19. Currently, the market is pricing in two 25-bps rate hikes for this year, specifically in June and September."
"Unless the ECB explicitly pushes back against this hawkish pricing, we expect EUR/USD to find support near the pivotal low of 1.1390 on August 1."
"ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted that the governing council will do everything necessary to prevent a repeat of the 2022-23 inflation spiral."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $78.94 per troy ounce, down 2.07% from the $80.60 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have increased by 11.05% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 78.94 |
1 Gram | 2.54 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 63.16 on Monday, up from 62.27 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Nomura economists expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0.00% on 19 March and for the foreseeable future. They see low but positive Swiss inflation, resilient GDP growth and rising global energy prices, but highlight Swiss Franc appreciation as a key downside risk to inflation and a trigger for potential FX intervention rather than rate cuts.
Franc strength and energy-driven inflation risks
"We expect the SNB to leave its policy rate on hold at 0.00% at its 19 March meeting. Although CPI inflation is low (it has been 0.1% y-o-y for the past three months), it remains within the SNB’s target range of 0-2%, has printed in line with the SNB’s latest forecast in 2026 so far, and policymakers likely expect it to rise. "
"A key concern for the SNB will be CHF appreciation pressures stemming from the current risk environment, which may encourage FX intervention from the central bank. The SNB said in a statement since the conflict began that “in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market”. "
"We therefore believe that FX intervention to stem currency appreciation pressures and their inflationary effects is more likely than a policy rate cut to a negative rate. "
"Indeed, Chairman Schlegel has commented on many occasions that the bar to lowering the policy rate below zero is high and commented in February that negative inflation readings would not cause an immediate alarm, suggesting the SNB is more willing to tolerate some slight deflation than a negative policy rate."
"Further ahead, our central forecast is for the SNB’s policy rate to remain at 0.00% for the foreseeable future, as we believe inflation will accelerate."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow Jones futures rise as risk aversion eases on the possible US coalition to escort ships through Hormuz.
- Traders may remain cautious amid possible Middle East escalation after US forces targeted a military site on Kharg Island.
- The US Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Dow Jones futures gain 0.33% to trade near 46,750 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.49% and 0.51% to trade around 6,670 and 24,520 at the time of writing.
US stock futures rise as risk aversion eases on reports that the United States (US) may announce a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that he expects the US-Israel conflict with Iran to end within “the next few weeks,” potentially allowing oil supplies to recover and energy prices to decline.
Wall Street posted losses in the previous session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.62%. US markets soared as geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. Higher energy prices and rising inflationary pressures also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Traders are likely to adopt caution amid potential escalation in Middle East tensions after United States (US) forces reportedly targeted every military site on Kharg Island over the weekend, a hub that handles nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Iran has warned it could retaliate against any US-linked oil facilities in the region.
On the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy front, the US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor policymakers’ guidance for the remainder of the year, particularly regarding inflation risks stemming from the recent surge in energy prices.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
HSBC argues that recent Middle East tensions and “safe haven” demand have lifted the Dollar, helped by short USD covering and tighter US financial conditions. However, the bank notes that 2022-style drivers such as a clearly hawkish Federal Reserve and weak global growth are absent, and expects a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions to see the USD resume softening, barring a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations.
Safe haven gains but softening bias
"At the onset of the latest Middle East conflict, the USD was poised to rise, consistent with a renewed “safe haven” demand and the potential for de-risking – particularly given the build-up of sizeable, short USD positioning since January."
"USD strength has also been accompanied by tighter US financial conditions, which is typically a headwind for other currencies. However, the tightening has been modest relative to previous stress episodes, suggesting that there may be limits to sustained USD outperformance if cross-asset volatility remains contained."
"Unlike 2022, the key pillars that previously underpinned a structurally stronger USD — namely a clearly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and weakening global growth — are not evident. Markets continue to price a bias towards gradual Fed easing this year, and leading indicators point to firmer global growth."
"Together, these factors can support more cyclical currencies and temper broad-based USD strength, reinforcing our central view that a de-escalation in tensions would allow the USD to resume softening. That said, risks remain skewed to the upside for the USD, if the conflict drives a sharp repricing of the Fed path into hiking territory."
"A further downside scenario would be a prolonged conflict that sustains energy and supply-side pressures and revives stagflationary concerns. In such an environment, the USD will likely be stronger than in our base case, supported by the US being less exposed as a net energy importer and by growth cushioning from the One Big Beautiful Bill."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Aluminium Bahrain has begun a phased shutdown equal to about 19% of its capacity due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. They argue this underscores structural tightness in Aluminium, with low inventories and constrained supply chains, especially in Europe, likely keeping prices and regional premiums supported as long as Hormuz-related issues persist.
Aluminium market stays structurally tight
"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased production shutdown, citing ongoing supply and transit disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The company said it shut three production lines, equivalent to around 19% of its 1.6 million‑tonne‑per‑year capacity, to conserve raw‑material inventories and stabilise operations."
"The curtailment highlights mounting strain on Middle East aluminium supply chains, with shipping disruptions constraining both metal exports and alumina feedstock flows. Coming after Alba’s force majeure declaration earlier this month, and alongside outages elsewhere in the region, the move reinforces tight physical conditions."
"The shutdown reinforces our view that aluminium remains structurally tight, with limited buffers to absorb supply shocks. Beyond supporting outright prices, it should keep regional premiums elevated. This is particularly true in Europe, where low inventories and ongoing stock withdrawals indicate persistent physical tightness."
"As long as Hormuz‑related disruptions persist, any price pullbacks are likely to be shallow, with tight spot availability continuing to underpin both prices and premia."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
A report by Bloomberg showed during European trade on Monday that a key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was hit by a drone, the latest in a series of strikes threatening the country’s only export route outside the Strait of Hormuz.
The report also showed that oil loadings have been halted as a precautionary measure as the damage was being assessed, prompting the fears of global oil supply concerns.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights a bullish breakout in the US Dollar index above its 96.000–100.00 range, supported by surging Oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. MUFG expects the Dollar to stay supported while the blockage persists, as higher energy costs deepen the negative shock to global growth and weigh more heavily on other G10 currencies.
Dollar index holds bullish breakout
"The US dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels overnight after the bullish break out at the end of last week when the dollar index closed above the 96.000 to 100.00 trading range that has been in place since Q2."
"The US dollar continues to derive support from rising energy prices in response to the Middle East conflict."
"Unless supply comes back on stream soon, a higher price of oil will be required to destroy global demand to bring it back into balance with supply thereby reinforcing the negative energy price shock for the global economy."
"Recent developments have added to concerns that even if US military operations in the Middle East were to end soon, there is a high risk that Iran may continue to block the Strait to increase the economic cost which would act as a bigger deterrent for further attacks."
"However, we doubt that hawkish BoE and ECB policy updates will provide much support for the euro and pound against the US dollar given European economies are facing a bigger negative hit than the US economy from the energy price shock."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee gains a temporary ground against the US Dollar after a four-day losing streak; its outlook remains grim.
- US President Trump expresses confidence that a few nations are ready for joint operations to open the Strait of Hormuz.
- FIIs have remained net sellers on all trading days so far in March.
The Indian Rupee (INR) snaps four-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair trades lower to near 92.70 as the Indian Rupee rebounds amid speculation that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.
Iran allows Indian ships to pass through Strait of Hormuz
The speculation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a channel through which 20% of global oil is supplied, which is closed as part of retaliation by Tehran against joint attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, has come into the picture as President Donald Trump has claimed that he is getting a good response from other countries for intervention.
“Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump said in a post on Truth.Social adding, “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation.”
There seems to be a limited impact of Trump’s attempts to reopen Hormuz on the oil price, which has surrendered its opening gains.
Given that India is one of the largest importers of oil in the world, a higher oil price is an unfavorable situation for the Indian Rupee.
Meanwhile, Iran has allowed passage to Indian ships from the Strait of Hormuz, which has diminished oil and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply concerns. India’s Ministry of Ports confirmed over the weekend that two Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG crossed the Strait of Hormuz early morning safely and are en route to India, Al Jazeera reported.
FIIs keep dumping stake in Indian stock market
Broadly, the outlook of the Indian Rupee is expected to remain weak due to the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market. So far in March, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 56,883.22 crore.
Meanwhile, India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation data for February has arrived higher than expectations. Inflation at the wholesale level grew at an annualized pace of 2.13%, faster than estimates of 2% and the prior reading of 1.81%.
This week, the domestic trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 100.30. The USD Index corrects after posting a fresh over nine-month high of 100.55 on Friday. The US Dollar has outperformed in the past few weeks amid rising oil prices, given that the United States (US) is a net oil exporter.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more upside above 93.00
USD/INR drops to near 92.80 at the start of the week. However, the near-term bias is bullish as price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is around 92.00.
The sequence of higher closes from late in the series keeps buyers in control despite a minor pause, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 70 has cooled slightly from the overbought territory. Overall, the technical backdrop favors further upside while the pair remains above its short-term trend support.
Initial resistance is located at the recent high near 92.97, and a daily close above this level would open the way toward the psychological 93.50 zone next. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 92.00, with a break below this area exposing deeper retracement toward 91.30 as the next notable floor. As long as pullbacks are contained above the 92.00 region, the path of least resistance stays to the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected at 11:15 GMT to say in the first bullet and paragraph that the Indian Rupee snaps four-day losing streak, not winning streak.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Mar 18, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
- The Japanese Yen trades higher against its major currency peers at the start of the week.
- Investors expect both the Fed and the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged.
- Japan announces that it has started releasing oil from its strategic holdings to fulfil energy needs.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.25% | -0.12% | -0.48% | -0.72% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.10% | -0.26% | -0.38% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.01% | -0.37% | -0.52% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.16% | -0.21% | -0.28% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.16% | -0.36% | -0.50% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.21% | 0.36% | -0.15% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.72% | 0.38% | 0.52% | 0.28% | 0.50% | 0.15% | 0.47% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.07% | 0.03% | -0.40% | -0.47% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are scheduled to announce their monetary policies on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% as inflation expectations in the United States (US) have de-anchored amid surging oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime before the October policy meeting.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.22% lower to near 100.30. Still, the DXY is close to its over nine-month high of 100.54 posted on Friday.
Also, the BoJ is expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.75% and keep the door open for further policy tightening. Investors will pay close attention to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference to get cues about how much rising oil prices could prompt inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Higher oil price is an unfavorable situation for the Japanese Yen, given that the Asian economy relies heavily on oil imports to fulfill its energy needs.
Earlier in the day, Japan announced that it had started lowering its oil reserves to meet its energy needs amid escalating supply concerns in the wake of the war in the Middle East, which involves the US, Israel, and Iran.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Mar 18, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
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