Forex News
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Gold fell for a third straight session and week, losing over 2% as investors reassessed US-Iran negotiations and US monetary policy. They argue that easing energy supply fears and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have reduced Gold’s appeal, even as ongoing Middle East risks continue to offer some underlying support.
Geopolitics offset by rate headwinds
"Gold fell for a third consecutive session on Friday, posting a third straight weekly decline."
"The metal lost more than 2% over the week as investors weighed the outlook for US-Iran negotiations and US monetary policy."
"While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, the resumption of oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns over energy supply disruptions and reduced fears of a broader inflation shock."
"At the same time, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer."
"Gold is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East and shifts in Fed rate expectations."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD edges up above 1.3200 as Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation.
- The decision was widely expected with his leadership in question, following a severe defeat in local elections in May.
- Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, emerges as the best-positioned candidate to replace Starmer.
The British Pound (GBP) nudged up above 1.3200 against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and maintains a mild positive tone, despite news that Sir Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party.
Starmer appeared outside 10 Downing Street earlier on Monday to announce his resignation, adding that he will remain in charge until the party decides on a new leader and pledging support to whoever is the next PM.
The decision was widely expected by the market, as his position as prime minister was seriously called into question after a severe defeat in the local elections in England, Scotland and Wales that delivered a sound victory to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK populist party.
Starmer’s weakness increased last week as the Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, the best-positioned Labour leader to replace him, won a seat in parliament, the requirement to become the next prime minister. Later on the day, Burnham is expected to be at Westminster today to be sworn in as MP for Makerfield.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar remains firm after last week’s breakout, driven by a hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations and a rebound in US yields. Markets now see roughly even odds of a near-term Fed hike, even as Oil prices fall on progress in US-Iran talks. MUFG highlights that lower energy prices and fading tariff effects could later reduce the need for further tightening.
Dollar supported by yields and Fed repricing
"The US dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels overnight after breaking higher least week triggered by the hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations."
"The latest price action highlights that the negative shock for the US yields and the US dollar from last year’s tariff hikes is reversing supported by building evidence that the US economy is continuing to grow solidly and downside risks for the labour market have eased."
"The recent run of positive US economic data surprises and hawkish Fed policy communication has encouraged market participants to price in almost a 50:50 probability of a rate hike as soon as next month."
"With the US mid-term election taking place later this year in November, it could be easier for the Fed to hike rates sooner rather than later."
"In addition, if they hold off from hiking rates soon then slowing inflation from lower energy prices and the fading impact of tariff hikes should dampen the need for hikes later this year as well."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rises as easing oil and inflation concerns fade on the US-Iran reaching a fresh agreement.
- Qatar and Pakistan announced that Washington and Tehran agreed to a formal roadmap targeting a peace deal within 60 days.
- Non-yielding Silver could face potential pressure as traders weigh a hawkish shift in the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) advances after three days of losses, hovering around $66.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. However, Silver price gains ground as oil prices and inflation concerns ease following a positive development regarding the United States (US)-Iran peace deal.
Mediators Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement from Switzerland announcing that both Washington and Tehran have agreed to a formal roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within the next 60 days.
Additionally, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that the diplomatic progress yielded several major concessions for his country. In addition to the vital export waivers for oil and petrochemicals, the agreed-upon terms include the release of a portion of Iran's frozen financial assets, alongside the official launch of a comprehensive domestic reconstruction and development plan.
However, on Sunday, US President Donald Trump threatened direct strikes on Iran if proxy attacks on Israel continue. This warning severely clouded the outlook for diplomatic progress and threatened to dismantle the current peace framework, casting a shadow over the first round of interim talks held between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials.
However, the non-yielding Silver may further face challenges as traders could weigh on a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. Last week's central bank meeting, where policymakers left interest rates unchanged but adopted a distinctly hawkish stance. Notably, 9 out of 19 FOMC members now project at least one interest rate hike this year, prompting market participants to actively price in a potential increase as early as September.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD attracts sellers for the fourth straight day on Monday amid a broadly firmer USD.
- The Iran uncertainty and the hawkish Fed lift the USD back closer to an over one-year high.
- The PBOC rate decision and the RBNZ’s hawkish shift fail to lend any support to the Kiwi.
The NZD/USD pair drifts lower for the fourth consecutive day – also marking the sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven – and drops to its lowest level since April 8 during the first half of the European session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5725-0.5720 region and seem vulnerable to slide further amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, catches fresh bids following Friday's pullback from its highest level since May 2025 and draws support from a combination of factors. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled last week that it will need to raise the policy rate if inflation remains sticky. Traders were quick to react and ramped up their bets that the US central bank will deliver at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in 2026. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, benefits the buck.
In the latest developments, Iran accused the US and Israel of violating the ceasefire and announced that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump threatened fresh military action against Iran if Hezbollah continued attacks on Israel. This underscores the fragility of the diplomatic process and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, tempering investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets and driving safe-haven flows towards the Greenback.
This, to a larger extent, counters the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish shift and suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside. In fact, the RBNZ indicated that the OCR could reach roughly 2.85% by the end of this year, implying up to three rate hikes. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the one-year and the five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. The announcement, however, does little to lend any support to the currency pair.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Societe Generale highlights that USD/CAD has accelerated higher after breaking a descending trend line in place since last year, signalling a momentum shift and an attempted breakout from a broad multi-month range. While the move looks stretched, the bank sees no clear pullback signals yet, with support at 1.4130/1.4150 and upside objectives at 1.4250 and 1.4285/1.4335.
Momentum shift with new upside targets
"USD/CAD has accelerated its up move after crossing the descending trend line in place since last year, signalling a shift in momentum."
"The pair is now attempting to break out of a broad multi-month range."
"The move is somewhat stretched, however, there are no clear signals of a meaningful pullback yet."
"The November peak at 1.4130/1.4150 serves as the first support; defence of this zone may lead to continuation in up move."
"The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4250 and 1.4285/1.4335."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD depreciates for the fifth day in a row and hits session lows below 0.7000.
- Investors remain cautious amid contrasting reports from the US-Iran peace talks.
- Bears remain in charge with the 11-week low at 0.6979 in focus.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive day on Monday, trading just below the psychological 0.7000 level and drifting towards the 11-week low of 0.6979.
The risk-sensitive Aussie remains under pressure as investors ponder the advances reported by mediators in the US-Iran talks. Both parties have committed to ending hostilities on all fronts and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but comments from US President Donald Trump threatening to “take over” Iran shook the negotiations on Sunday.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a “hawkish hold,” which prompted investors to ramp up hopes of rate hikes in the second half of the year and boosted the Greenback across the board. The Reserve Bank of Australia hit the pause button after three consecutive rate hikes this year, but left the door open for further tightening, which is keeping the Aussie from depreciating further.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.6970
AUD/USD trades at 0.6996, holding a mildly bearish tone after slipping below the 0.7000 psychological level. Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart endorse that view with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38, keeping pressure tilted lower, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) languishing in negative territory.
Bears are focusing on June's bottom at 0.6979. A confirmation below here would boost negative pressure and bring the April 7 low, at the 0.6900 area, into focus.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the June 18 high, near 0.7040, ahead of a previous support-turned-resistance at the 0.7090 area (May 19 low, June 15 high).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.25% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.19% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.08% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.29% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.10% | -0.00% | 0.08% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/JPY holds gains as heavy carry-trade demand favors short-JPY positions due to wide global interest rate differentials.
- Japan’s Katayama warned that Tokyo is prepared to counter currency volatility.
- RBA Governor Bullock warned that inflation remains too high and further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
AUD/JPY holds gains after experiencing volatility, trading around 113.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains heavily bid as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground to widespread carry-trade activity. Investors are aggressively favoring short-Yen positions, driven by the stubbornly wide interest rate differential between Japan and other economies.
The Japanese Yen depreciates despite a fresh round of verbal warnings from Tokyo. On Monday, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasized that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately to volatile currency movements at any given time. However, Katayama strictly declined to comment on specific exchange rate thresholds, offering little immediate relief to the beleaguered Yen.
The upside of the AUD/JPY cross is restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles on uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks. Market sentiment initially soured following reports that US President Donald Trump threatened direct strikes on Iran if proxy attacks on Israel continue.
However, severe risk aversion was partially checked after mediators Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement from Switzerland announcing that both Washington and Tehran have agreed to a formal roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within the next 60 days.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) opted to keep its benchmark one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. Given the close trading relationship between China and Australia, this decision could directly impact Australian market sentiment.
Meanwhile, domestic policy may continue to offer underlying support for the AUD. After holding the cash rate steady this month, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation remains too high, warning that further rate hikes cannot be entirely ruled out.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation and says that nominations for new contender will open on July 9. Earlier in the day, a Reuters report showed that UK PM Starmer could decide as early as Monday whether to remain in office and fight a leadership contest or begin the process of stepping down.
Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that UK PM Starmer could resign on failing to fix immigration and energy issues.
"Keir Starmer will resign as Prime Minister of The United Kingdom. He failed badly on two very important subjects- IMMIGRATION AND ENERGY (OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!). I wish him well!," US President Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Additional remarks
Will ask Labour to set out timetable.
Nominations will open July 9.
I will remain in post until contest complete.
Will do everything I can to ensure orderly handover.
Market reaction
A slight volatile action is observed in the British Pound (GBP) after UK PM Starmer's resignation. As of writing, GBP/USD is down 0.26% to near 1.3200 due to the US Dollar's (USD) outperformance.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a negative stance on AUD/USD after a period of quiet price action around 0.7020. They see a mild intraday downside bias, though any immediate drop is unlikely to reach 0.6980, while over the next one to three weeks they expect the pair to gravitate toward the month-to-date low near 0.6980 unless 0.7045 is broken.
Mildly weaker Aussie within tight band
"24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD consolidated as we expected last Thursday, we highlighted the following on Friday: “We were not wrong, as AUD traded between 0.7001 and 0.7042, closing largely unchanged at 0.7016 (+0.03%). Today, AUD is likely to consolidate further, though the softer underlying tone points to a lower range of 0.6995/0.7035.” AUD then traded between 0.6990 and 0.7024 before closing largely unchanged again at 0.7017 (+0.02%). Despite the relatively quiet price action, there has been a slight increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to trade with a downward bias, but given the lacklustre momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.6980. On the upside, resistance levels are at 0.7020 and 0.7030."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our AUD view to negative last Thursday (18 Jun, spot at 0.7025). We indicated that “downward momentum is increasing, and AUD is likely to drop toward the month-to-date low, near 0.6980.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 0.7045 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.7060) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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