Forex News
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is testing fresh yearly highs near the 102.50 zone, powered by independent Euro (EUR) weakness and relative resilience in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate path. However, as expectations for an October rate hike diminish following softer inflation and payrolls data, the fundamental drivers behind the Greenback’s momentum are coming under closer examination. While elevated US Treasury yields continue to lend broad support, market strategists are increasingly divided over whether rising term premia and upcoming US midterm election risks will stall the US Dollar's advance or if overseas monetary policy easing will keep the Greenback on a bullish trajectory.
Fading Fed hike expectations and fiscal yield drivers challenge USD momentum
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research cautions that the US Dollar's recent rally is running out of monetary policy impetus as senior Fed officials push back against a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting. With softer PCE inflation and payrolls data altering rate expectations, attention is shifting to the composition of rising long-term US Treasury yields. Wee stresses that yields elevated by fiscal deficits, debt issuance, and term premia offer far less structural support to the Greenback than central bank tightening, while upcoming US midterm elections pose additional risks to the broader macro outlook.
"Higher yields driven by Fed tightening can support the USD. Higher term premia driven by concerns over debt supply, fiscal sustainability, and Treasury-market credibility need not. The November 3 US midterm elections add another constraint... If Republicans lose control of the House, markets could also reassess the US exceptionalism narrative that supported the USD..."
Euro weakness and resilient Fed outlook keep DXY upside target at 102.85
Taking a pro-US Dollar view, Chris Turner at ING emphasizes that the Greenback continues to gain ground against major peers, primarily fueled by heavy selling in the Euro. Despite soft September US labor data, markets remain comfortable with an October hold followed by a December Fed rate hike. With the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate path subject to sharper dovish repricing compared to the Fed's, relative yield differentials and upcoming ISM services and FOMC minutes should continue to support DXY toward 102.85.
"DXY dollar index is pushing smartly to new highs of the year. It is being propelled by the sell-off in the euro, which represents 58% of the DXY basket. 102.85 would seem to be the next upside target here... Core support for the dollar should continue to come from the fact that expectations for the monetary policy tightening cycle remain far more resilient for the Fed than for overseas central banks – especially the ECB."
Key Takeaway
The US Dollar's move to fresh yearly highs near 102.50 demonstrates how central bank divergence and overseas weakness — particularly in the Eurozone — can sustain Greenback momentum even as the Fed pauses its tightening cycle. While DBS Group Research warns that elevated term premia and November midterm political headwinds could undermine the "US exceptionalism" trade, ING projects that smaller rate cut adjustments for the Fed relative to aggressive dovish repricing at the ECB will keep the US Dollar well-supported through year-end.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner says Brazilian assets are set to rally after Sunday’s presidential vote, where Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47% versus President Lula’s 45%. He expects markets to assume remaining votes lean Bolsonaro, sees currency and bonds benefiting from his fiscal austerity and deregulation agenda, and projects USD/BRL opening near 5.10, with a return to 4.90 seen as too aggressive.
Bolsonaro gains lift Brazilian assets
"Brazilian assets look set to rally today following presidential election results on Sunday, which showed Flavio Bolsonaro gaining 47% of the popular vote to President Lula's 45%. Both will go to a run-off on 25 October, but markets will assume that the remaining 8% of the vote will be directed more towards the Bolsonaro camp. Investors had been expecting a very tight race, but it seems that Bolsonaro has performed better in the first round than many expected."
"With Bolsonaro running on a ticket of fiscal austerity and deregulation, expect both the currency and bond market to rally. A few investors might be looking for the currency to replicate some of the sensational gains seen by the Colombian peso earlier this year, after the right-wing candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, did well in the first round in May and then won the run-off in June."
"Currently, however, the stronger dollar environment and surging US Treasury yields are creating a more difficult external environment for emerging market currencies than earlier this year."
"USD/BRL could open near 5.10, but a move back to the lows of the year at 4.90 looks too aggressive right now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) has started Q4 2026 on a firm footing, supported by resilient United States (US) growth and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) risks. However, they expect only a moderate USD rally into year-end as markets scale back near-term Fed hike expectations and as bond-market volatility increasingly drives FX dynamics.
Bond volatility spills into currencies
"The USD has started 4Q26 on a firm footing, consistent with our view of a stronger USD into year-end. Until recently, FX volatility had remained subdued. Despite hawkish Fed risks and the energy shock, USD gains have been measured rather than disorderly."
"In short, while the USD continues to benefit from relatively resilient US growth and hawkish Fed risks, the bigger story is the transmission of bond market volatility into FX markets. If rate volatility remains elevated, pressure on carry trades, cyclical currencies and EUR is likely to persist, while traditional havens such as CHF and USD should remain supported."
"Our base case remains for a moderate rather than aggressive USD rally into year-end. Markets have sharply reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike after several Fed officials signalled no urgency to tighten policy further and indicated a preference to assess additional incoming data before making their next move. Yet markets are still pricing roughly three rate hikes over the coming 12 months."
"If upcoming inflation data continue to show that underlying price pressures are contained, markets may gradually scale back Fed tightening expectations, limiting further USD upside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold bounces up from two-month lows but remains within previous ranges, below $4,200.
- High US yields and the risk-averse market amid the global bonds' selloff are buoying the safe-haven USD
- XAU/USD bulls need to break the $4,230 resistance area to ease bearish pressure.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims some losses on Monday but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index (DXY) has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar (USD) dips so far,.
US labour market data disappointed on Friday and cooled hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening in October. Futures markets are now pricing in an 80% chance that the US central bank will stand pat on rates in October, from 30% a week ago, although hopes of a December hike remain little changed.
The negative impact of a softer monetary tightening path has been offset by the risk-averse market mood amid the global bonds sell-off. The US Dollar is drawing support from Euro weakness as France’s borrowing costs escalate, although some market analysts warn that a debt crisis might also take a toll on the USD.
"Higher yields driven by Fed tightening can support the USD. Higher term premia driven by concerns over debt supply, fiscal sustainability, and Treasury-market credibility need not," says the DBS Group in a note.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains below key resistance at $4,230
XAU/USD trades at $4,165 keeping the near-term bearsish trend in place, with price action capped below a previous support level at the $4,230 area, which is also the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart show some bullish divergence, although upside attempts remain frail so far. The Relative Strength Index (14) stays just below the midpoint, while the moderately positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests that bullish momentum remains constructive but mild.
Immediate resistance is seen at the mentioned $4,230 area (September 16 low, October 2 high). Above there, the pair might find some resistance at the September 25 high near $4,315, although the next relevant bullish target would be the September 11 and 18 highs, just above $4,500.
On the downside, last week's floor, near $4,110, is likely to test bears' confidence. Frther down the late July lows at the $4,000 psychological area, and the year-to-date low around $3,950 will be targeted.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF reversed sharply from 0.8382 to close at 0.8286, with intraday price action expected to edge lower toward 0.8245 while staying above 0.8225. On a 1–3 week view, he now sees the pair in a 0.8245–0.8365 range after prior upside momentum faded. Over 1–3 months, he still anticipates a rebound, though not strong enough to revisit the July peak.
Range-bound as US Dollar momentum fades - UOB
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to 0.8382 last Thursday and then pulled back sharply to a low of 0.8291. On Friday, when USD was at 0.8310, we indicated that “the pullback has scope to extend,” but we were of the view that “any decline should stay within a range of 0.8280/0.8335.” However, USD briefly plunged to a low of 0.8225 during the NY session and then rebounded to close at 0.8286 (-0.25%). While the price action has resulted in an increase in downward momentum, it is not sufficient to indicate a continued decline. Today, we expect USD to edge lower to 0.8245. USD is unlikely to revisit the 0.8225 low. Resistance is at 0.8300; a breach of 0.8310 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view from positive to neutral last Friday (02 Oct, spot at 0.8310). We highlighted that “upward momentum fizzled out quickly, and USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365.” While USD subsequently dropped below 0.8245 with a low of 0.8225, the decline was brief. There has been no increase in downward momentum, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 0.8245 and 0.8365 for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility. In Poland, firmer inflation keeps the prospect of further tightening alive, while in Romania, elevated price pressures and uncertainty over government formation argue for caution, with the next rate cut seen only in 1Q27 if inflation declines and political stability returns.
NBP, NBR and regional currency pressures
"In CEE, we anticipate a hawkish hold by the NBP at 3.75% on Wednesday. The case for tighter policy has strengthened after inflation quickened to 4.0% in September, driven by higher fuel prices. Policymakers have increasingly stressed the importance to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched."
"However, we expect the MPC to bide its time until the November staff projections are published before raising rates by 25bp. Another 25bp could be added in January. A hawkish hold may provide only limited support for the PLN as money markets already price ample tightening"
"In Romania, we expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 6.50% on Thursday. Inflation is gradually easing but political uncertainty, FX volatility and still-elevated price pressures limit the scope for cuts."
"With government formation still uncertain, policymakers are likely to remain cautious and signal patience. Our call is for the next cut in 1Q27 provided inflation continues to decline and a stable government is formed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.71 per troy ounce, up 2.13% from the $60.43 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 13.18% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 61.71 |
1 Gram | 1.98 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.51 on Monday, down from 68.57 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- The US Dollar Index reached a nearly 18-month high of 102.53 on Monday.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 76.30 signals overbought conditions.
- The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 101.49, aligned with the ascending wedge lower boundary.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering losses in the previous trading day and hovering around 102.20 after pulling back from nearly 18-month highs during the European hours on Monday. The DXY is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces an advancing trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 76.30 signals overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index near 137.58 suggests a still-supportive policy backdrop for the dollar, complementing the constructive technical picture.
Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the dollar index is moving upwards within the ascending wedge pattern, suggesting that a temporary bullish continuation is underway, but a bearish reversal or correction may occur upon reaching the pattern's apex or breaking its lower support boundary.
The US Dollar Index may test a nearly 18-month high of 102.53, reached earlier in the Asian hours, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending wedge.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 101.49, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending wedge. A break below the wedge would cause the bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the dollar index to test the 50-day EMA of 100.30. Further declines would expose the four-month low of 98.56, which was recorded on August 20.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.26% | 0.35% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | -0.28% | -0.34% | -0.38% | -0.43% | -0.04% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | 0.28% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.15% | 0.21% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.34% | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.27% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.31% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.43% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.35% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.27% | -0.31% | -0.37% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.27% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.17% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech in Sorrento, Italy during the European trading session on Monday that the impact of energy shock-driven inflation has yet not fed into wage growth.
Comments
Longer-term market-based and expert expectations remain consistent with the Eurosystem’s 2% inflation target.
Upward risks dominate the inflation outlook; uncertainty calls for flexibility, not inaction.
Gas prices are especially vulnerable because storage levels are low.
Europe may need to buy substantially higher volumes during the winter.
The destruction of refining capacity is driving up prices for refined petroleum products significantly.
Drought, wildfires and fertiliser shortages also pose risks to food prices.
This was increasing the relative attractiveness of bonds among reserve asset managers.
The case for diversification into gold remains significant given continued geopolitical stress and the credit risk associated with high debt levels.
Market reaction
No immediate impact on the Euro (EUR) from ECB Nagel's comments. At press time, EUR/USD is down 0.3% to near 1.1215 even after recovering a majority of its early losses.
Nagel flags inflation risks, keeps Euro bulls alert
ECB’s Nagel delivers a stronger-than-usual signal, with a 7.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 6.6/10 historic average, pointing to a modest hawkish shift. The emphasis that “upward risks dominate the inflation outlook” suggests reluctance to ease policy quickly, which tends to underpin the Euro as markets reassess the path of future rate cuts.
Nagel’s call that “uncertainty calls for flexibility, not inaction” reinforces a bias toward keeping options open for further tightening if needed, rather than committing to a dovish stance. At the same time, noting “no clear signs that inflation has fed through to price and wage setting” tempers the hawkish tone, but overall the balance of risks still leans toward supporting the Euro on expectations of a more persistent anti-inflation stance.
- USD/JPY lacks any firm intraday directional bias amid a combination of diverging forces.
- Hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the JPY, capping spot prices.
- A modest USD pullback from the YTD peak caps the pair, though the setup favors bulls.
The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's bounce from sub-157.00 levels, touched in reaction to the weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade just below the 158.00 mark, nearly unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.
Traders have been pricing in a greater chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again as soon as October, which, along with looming intervention risks, underpins the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since April 2025 and contributes to capping the USD/JPY pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might continue to benefit the safe-haven USD and help limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 suggests neutral to slightly positive momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers near the zero line with a marginally negative reading, hinting that the bullish pressure is constructive but not yet decisive.
Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 158.74. A sustained break above this level would open the door to a retest of the recent cycle highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at 157.49, followed by the 100-period SMA and the 50% retracement confluence at 156.61 resistance-turned support, with deeper structural floors at the 38.2% level at 155.73 and the 23.6% retracement at 154.64.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.23% | 0.41% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.29% | -0.39% | -0.43% | -0.46% | -0.07% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.29% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.17% | 0.21% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.39% | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.14% | 0.31% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.34% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.23% | 0.46% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.39% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | 0.07% | -0.21% | -0.31% | -0.34% | -0.39% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.32% | 0.03% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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