Forex News
- XAU/USD picks up from two-month lows at $4,066, but it remains capped in the lower range of the $4,100s.
- A strong recovery in Oil prices and US Treasury yields steady near long-term highs are keeping Gold's rallies limited.
- Technically, the bearish trend remains in play while below the trendline resistance at the $4,200 area.
Gold (XAU/USD) ticks up on Thursday, trading at the $4,125 area after bouncing up from two-month lows at $4.066 on Wednesday. Upside attempts, however, remain limited so far, as precious metals struggle with Oil appreciating amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, and with US long-term Treasury approaching multi-decade highs again.
Crude Oil is appreciating sharply on Thursday, following reports of a fresh round of attacks by Houthi militias on Saudi Arabian airports, killing three people. Tensions between the Saudi government and the Houthis from Yemen have been rising over the last few weeks, as Riyadh supports the Yemeni government campaign against the Iran-backed militia, which has brought the conflict to a new phase and might lead to fresh attacks on the Saudi Oil infrastructure.
Higher energy prices, on the other hand, keep pushing Treasury yields higher, amid market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to raise borrowing costs further to combat inflation. This, so far, is underpinning speculative demand for the US Dollar (USD) and weighing on precious metals.
Technical Analysis: Support at the $4,070 area remains on the bears' radar
XAU/USD trades at $4,124, holding the bearish bias as it holds below the broken downward trendline resistance from late August highs. The Relative Strength Index (14) on the 4-hour chart remains below the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative, hinting at a moderate downside momentum.
Bulls need to breach the mentioned trendline resistance at $4,190 and preferably also the September 16 and 24 lows around $4,240 to gain conviction and shift the focus towards the September 25 highs at the $4,300 area.
Failure to do so would entice bears to retest Wednesday's low at $4,066, aiming for the late-July lows at the $4,000 psychological area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that higher Oil prices are pressuring stocks and bonds while supporting a firmer Dollar. The FOMC minutes showed most participants backing another rate increase by year-end, with futures fully pricing a 25 bps hike to 4.00–4.25%. Easy US financial conditions and strong growth outperformance continue to underpin USD strength versus other currencies.
Oil, Fed minutes back stronger Dollar
"The renewed increase in crude oil prices is weighing on stocks and bonds, while underpinning a firmer USD."
"Persistently high energy prices keep risks to inflation, policy rates, and benchmark bond yields skewed to the upside, while favoring energy exporters’ currencies and USD over energy importer’s currencies. US growth outperformance and strong foreign appetite for US securities give USD an added boost."
"There was no new information from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting minutes. The key takeaway is that “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” Fed funds futures already fully price in a full 25bps hike to 4.00-4.25% on December 9."
"The minutes also suggest US financial conditions give the Fed room to keep hiking. “Many participants commented that, despite the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields, financial conditions appeared to be supportive of economic growth, with equity prices having risen substantially this year and spreads on corporate bonds having remained narrow.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/GBP has been pressured by French-related Euro risk but Sterling may gain further support if the Bank of England aligns with other central banks and hikes rates. Markets will watch centrist policymakers Andrew Bailey and Claire Lombardelli for any hint of backing a hike. ING sees strong support at 0.8455/0.8465, with potential tests of 0.8400 if a November hike looks likely.
Sterling eyes BoE centrist signals
"EUR/GBP has been dragged lower by developments in France and the extra risk premium being built into the euro. But sterling could start to receive some support from Bank of England policy should it look like the BoE is ready to fall in with other central banks and hike rates."
"After some hawkish speakers earlier in the day, the market will be watching centrist speakers Andrew Bailey and Claire Lombardelli."
"Any suggestion that they are ready to cross the Rubicon and vote for a hike could depress EUR/GBP further today."
"0.8455/65 looks like strong support after quite a sharp drop in EUR/GBP over the last couple of weeks. That should be tested if it looks like the BoE is ready to hike in November and there is outside risk to the 0.8400 area, while the French budgetary position remains unresolved."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.97 per troy ounce, down 1.65% from the $59.95 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.05% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 58.97 |
1 Gram | 1.90 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.99 on Thursday, up from 68.57 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD slipped to 0.6943 after previously expecting modest upside, but the move has not generated strong bearish momentum. Intraday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is seen consolidating between 0.6935 and 0.6975. On a one to three week view, they have shifted to a neutral stance, looking for range trading between 0.6935 and 0.7020 despite longer-term downside risks.
Aussie Dollar trapped in consolidation band
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we held the view that AUD “could edge higher within a 0.6965/0.6995 range.” We did not expect AUD to drop to a low of 0.6943. Despite the relatively rapid decline, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum, and a sustained decline in AUD is unlikely. Today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range between 0.6935 and 0.6975."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on AUD in the middle of last month. Yesterday (07 Oct, spot at 0.6980), we revised our view to neutral, and we indicated that AUD “is likely to trade between 0.6935 and 0.7020.” There is no change in our view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Danske Research Team highlights that European diesel prices surged after IEA members accelerated previously announced oil stock releases, prioritising diesel amid tight markets and Iran-related disruptions. Strait of Hormuz crude flows fell sharply following tanker attacks, though alternative routes partly offset the decline. The team also notes the oil price is above $102 as the US considers strike options against Iran.
Diesel spike and Hormuz disruption
"In commodities, European diesel prices jumped sharply after IEA members agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks announced in March but clarified that the plan would not exceed the 400m barrels already committed."
"Around 100m barrels are still to reach the market, with members set to prioritise diesel where possible amid tight markets and supply disruptions from the Iran war."
"The move therefore mainly brings forward already pledged volumes rather than adding fresh supply, which disappointed markets."
"Also in commodities, Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to its lowest level in more than two months, with Kpler reporting just seven commodity vessels transiting on Tuesday after tanker attacks last week reached their highest level since the Iran war began."
"Crude flows through the Strait were down 27% from the wartime high the week before. However, higher exports from the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea are helping offset the decline, keeping up overall regional crude exports."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD falls as the US Dollar rises amid Treasury yields climbing back toward multi-decade highs.
- FOMC September Meeting Minutes showed expectations of another increase before year-end.
- Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations climbed to a four-month peak of 5.3% in October, up from 4.9%.
AUD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.6950 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains support amid Treasury yields climbing back toward multi-decade highs not witnessed since 2002.
US yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes traded near 5.32% and 5.71%, respectively. This sharp move in bond yields, combined with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) hawkish tone regarding persistent inflation risks, weighed heavily on overall investor sentiment.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s September Meeting Minutes revealed unanimous support among all 19 policymakers for the recent interest rate hike, with a majority agreeing that an additional rate increase may be required before the end of the year. Although market consensus points toward rates holding steady at the October meeting, traders utilizing the CME FedWatch tool are pricing in 84.2% probability of rate hikes in December.
Safe-haven demand lifts the Greenback as geopolitical tensions remain high over a potential escalation between the US and Iran, which poses an ongoing threat to vital maritime shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated crude oil prices continue to stoke inflation fears.
Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to a four-month peak of 5.3% in October, from 4.9% prior. This highlights ongoing price pressures driven by high global energy costs despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) continued monetary tightening. Consequently, money markets are now pricing in a 27% probability of another interest rate hike to 4.85% at the upcoming RBA Board meeting, according to the ASX Rate Tracker.
UOB shifts to neutral on Aussie, sees range-bound trade ahead
Strategists at UOB Group note that their medium-term stance on AUD has recently been recalibrated. “We turned negative on AUD in the middle of last month,” they recall, but add that as of yesterday (07 Oct, spot at 0.6980) they “revised our view to neutral, and we indicated that AUD ‘is likely to trade between 0.6935 and 0.7020.’” They stress that “there is no change in our view,” reinforcing the expectation of range-bound price action over the next one to three weeks.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6950, extending a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA sits under the longer one, but both remain above spot, hinting at a capped recovery structure after the recent slide. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 34 suggests lingering bearish pressure and proximity to oversold territory, while the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading at 137.9 adds a cautious macro backdrop that could keep rallies in the pair subdued.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the nine-period EMA at 0.6979, with a more significant barrier at the 50-period EMA near 0.7058, where selling interest would likely re-emerge if the pair attempts a rebound. On the downside, initial structural support is seen at the horizontal level of 0.6688, ahead of deeper floors at 0.6434 and 0.6348, which mark prior demand zones and would come into view on a continuation of the current decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD briefly slipped below 1.12 again, with weakness driven mainly by Euro-specific concerns rather than US rate expectations. France’s fiscal sustainability and Marine Le Pen’s proposals are keeping markets nervous, while FOMC minutes reduced the perceived probability of near-term Fed hikes. Overall, Commerzbank judges near-term risks for EUR/USD as skewed to the downside.
France risks keep Euro pressured
"Yesterday, EUR/USD once again briefly slipped below the 1.12 mark. As was the case late last week, the move was primarily driven by euro weakness. The reason appears straightforward: persistent concerns about France’s fiscal sustainability."
"This view was reinforced by the FOMC minutes released yesterday. While many policymakers continued to favour another rate increase this year, the timing remains uncertain. Moreover, single additional rate hike was mentioned rather than the multiple hikes that markets are still pricing in."
"In the near term, however, attention is likely to remain focused on France. The ambitious fiscal plans unveiled by Marine Le Pen, who currently leads in presidential election polls, provided only temporary relief. One reason may be that she simultaneously called on the ECB to intervene in order to give euro area governments greater fiscal room for manoeuvre."
"At the same time, France’s central bank governor downplayed the need for ECB intervention and spoke out against political pressure on the central bank. Against this backdrop, continued market nervousness comes as little surprise. A lasting solution to the issue remains elusive for now. As a result, near-term risks for EUR/USD remain skewed to the downside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD edges lower on Thursday as an intraday rally in crude oil prices underpins the Loonie.
- The hawkish Fed, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical risks support the USD and the pair.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for an eventual breakout through a short-term range.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers during the first half of the European session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through and currently trades around mid-1.4200s, nearly unchanged for the day. Moreover, spot prices remain within striking distance of the highest level since April 2025, touched earlier this week, amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance, along with elevated US bond yields and geopolitical uncertainties, helps the safe-haven USD to stand firm near an 18-month high. However, the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East provides a goodish lift to crude oil prices, underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so could still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a strong rally from the September monthly swing low. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.7 hints at neutral momentum rather than overbought conditions. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays marginally below zero, suggesting that bullish pressure is moderating rather than reversing decisively.
Hence, any corrective pullback could find decent support near last Friday's low, around the 1.4200 round figure, which, if broken, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/CAD pair to the 1.4150-1.4145 region. On the top side, bulls might now await a move beyond the year-to-date high, around the 1.4300 neighborhood, touched on Monday, before positioning for an extension of a well-established short-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech at the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) Istanbul Economic Forum on Thursday that more interest rate hikes are needed as inflation remains too high.
Comments
More hikes needed but flexible about the pace.
Inflation too high, with AI buildout, ongoing energy shock among a range of persistent inflationary forces.
Evidence that economy is strengthening in the second half of 2026.
Concerned high inflation, now approaching 5-1/2 years above target, will put inflation expectations at risk.
Labor market "solid and stable" in September even though number of jobs created was down.
Fed communications can avoid the promises of forward guidance, but still improve outcomes with "signaling" to markets about possible policy choices.
Market reaction
No major reaction is seen in the US Dollar (USD), following remarks from Fed's Waller. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is marginally higher to near 102.30.
Waller flags more hikes but flexible pace, keeping Dollar bulls engaged
Fed’s Waller delivered a distinctly hawkish tone, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10, stronger relative to the historical average of 7.2/10. The insistence that “more hikes [are] needed but flexible about the pace,” alongside comments on persistent inflation drivers from AI buildout and energy shocks, signals a bias toward further tightening even if not at consecutive meetings. Emphasis on a strengthening economy, a “solid and stable” labor market, and risks to inflation expectations reinforces a policy stance that supports the Dollar on balance.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.42 points to 138.34, firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark, consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This incremental move higher underscores that markets are likely to price a more extended period of restrictive policy, a backdrop that should remain broadly supportive for the Dollar versus the Euro and Yen.
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