Forex News

• WTI Crude Oil slides below $59 amid deteriorating investor sentiment in a risk-off market environment.
• A surprise build in US inventories and weak global manufacturing data add to the bearish pressure.
• Drone attacks on Russian refineries highlight geopolitical risks but fail to offset concerns about oversupply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades at $58.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.80% on the day, extending its decline for a third consecutive day. The fall comes amid a wave of risk aversion sweeping global markets, with US equities retreating and investor sentiment turning cautious.

The latest report from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday showed an unexpected surge in US Crude Oil inventories, which rose by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending October 31, far exceeding expectations for a 1.8 million-barrel increase. The data reinforced concerns that supply remains ample, even as global demand continues to show signs of weakness.

At the same time, macroeconomic data from major economies remain fragile. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the United States (US) stayed in contraction at 48.7, while China’s official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49, signaling declining industrial activity. In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50 but still indicates lackluster demand.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to simmer. Russia’s Volgograd Oil refinery, operated by Lukoil, halted operations after being struck by Ukrainian drones, according to Reuters. The attack damaged the plant’s primary processing unit, which accounts for roughly a fifth of its capacity. Although the incident highlights ongoing risks to energy infrastructure in the region, it has not yet translated into a significant disruption of Russian crude exports, which, according to Commerzbank, remain robust at around 3.56 million barrels per day.

Adding to the bearish tone, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) recently announced a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December, while signaling a pause in additional hikes during the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a potential glut. Analysts at ING note that the market is expected to be in “peak surplus” early next year, keeping pressure on prices despite supply uncertainties linked to sanctions and regional tensions.

In this context, expectations for slower global growth, coupled with high US production levels near record highs of 13.65 million barrels per day according to the EIA, are weighing on WTI. Unless risk sentiment stabilizes or significant supply disruptions emerge, Oil prices could remain under pressure in the near term.

WTI Technical Analysis: Crude Oil breaks below $59.50, signaling renewed bearish momentum

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil breaks out of its consolidation range to the downside, slipping below the $59.50 level, which confirms a short-term bearish bias. As the price extends its decline beneath the psychological $59.00 mark, selling pressure is intensifying and could pave the way for a move toward the October 20 low at $55.97.

On the upside, a sustained recovery above $59.50 would be needed to ease the bearish pressure and open the door for a rebound toward the upper boundary of the previous range, near $61.30.

• USD/JPY edges lower as the Japanese Yen gains traction amid a softer US Dollar.
• Fed’s cautious tone and stronger private-sector data temper rate-cut expectations.
• Japanese Yen finds additional support from upbeat Labor Cash Earnings and a stronger Jibun Services PMI.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the Greenback weakens following a strong multi-day rally. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 153.13, down over 0.50% on the day.

The pullback in the US Dollar comes as traders grow increasingly uneasy over the prolonged United States (US) government shutdown, which is now the longest in history. The shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, forcing both markets and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to rely on private-sector indicators.

This data vacuum, coupled with mounting concerns about potential economic disruption, is weighing on the Greenback, prompting a mild technical correction after recent strength.

Overall sentiment still favors the USD as traders reassess the Fed’s monetary policy outlook following Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks last week. After a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, Powell cautioned that further easing is “not a foregone conclusion,” prompting markets to trim expectations for a December cut. Supporting this stance, stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data have reinforced the view that the Fed may keep policy on hold through year-end.

Adding to the cautious tone, Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Thursday that “most labor market indicators show stability,” with only “mild cooling” and “a little downside risk.” He said he “may be reluctant to continue the rate-cutting cycle,” though noted the eventual neutral rate is likely to settle “a fair bit below” current levels.

Meanwhile, the Yen drew additional support from encouraging domestic data released earlier in the day. Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings rose 1.9% YoY in September, matching forecasts and marking an improvement from the previous 1.3% gain. The Jibun Bank Services PMI for October came in at 53.1, beating expectations of 52.4.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the minutes from its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, following last week’s decision to keep interest rates at 0.50%. The minutes revealed that most policymakers agreed real interest rates remain “very low,” suggesting the central bank is likely to continue normalizing policy at a gradual pace if its economic and inflation projections materialize.

• GBP/USD remains above 1.3050, after touching daily highs but now faces resistance near 1.3100.
• BoE keeps Bank Rate at 4% in a 5–4 split; dissenters Dhingra, Taylor, Ramsden and Breeden favored a 25 bps cut.
• Bailey says policy is still restrictive and that more data is needed before easing further.

GBP/USD recovers some ground but trades off daily highs as the Bank of England (BoE) held rates unchanged on Thursday, on a 'dovish' hold as the vote split hints that the December meeting is open. The pair trades at 1.3080, up 0.26%.

Sterling trims gains as Bailey warns rate cuts will be gradual and data-dependent

The BoE kept the Bank Rate at 4% on a 5-4 vote split on Thursday. The four dissenters who wanted a 25-basis-point rate cut were: Dhingra, Taylor, Ramsden and, surprisingly, Breeden. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey welcomed the September inflation figure, which held steady, but warned that it was just one series and that further data is needed.

At the press conference, Bailey focused on inflation, saying that he doesn’t know where neutral rates would be and that the current policy is still restrictive.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes that inflation has peaked. Bailey added that, “We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again.”

Across the pond, the US Challenger report by Gray & Christmas revealed that companies slashed over 150,000 jobs in October, the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years. The survey noted that industries adopting AI-driven changes are the main reason behind the layoffs.

The data moved the needle about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting. Money markets see a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, up from 62% a day ago, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the lack of official data on inflation during the shutdown “accentuates” his caution about cutting interest rates further, he said on Thursday in an interview with CNBC.

The Chicago Fed released an estimate of the Unemployment Rate in the US, which climbed to 4.36% in October, its highest level in four years.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Although GBP/USD remains above 1.3000, a decisive break of 1.3100 is needed so buyers could remain hopeful of pushing spot prices towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3257.

Conversely, if GBP/USD ends on a daily basis below 1.3050, sellers could challenge 1.3000 as they aim to test the latest swing low of 1.2707, reached on April 8.

• Gold edges lower after an unsuccessful attempt to sustain gains above $4,000.
• Investors stay cautious amid the prolonged US shutdown, supporting safe-haven assets.
• Focus shifts to remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials later in the day for fresh insights into monetary policy.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday, after briefly reclaiming the key $4,000 psychological mark amid a weaker US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,985, easing from an intraday high of $4,019 as bullish momentum stalls.

Gold’s downside remains cushioned as the ongoing United States (US) government shutdown keeps markets on edge. The political deadlock is raising concerns over the potential economic fallout and weighing on the Greenback after a strong multi-day rally.

However, Bullion’s upside appears limited in the near term as both macro and technical factors could cap further advances. Stronger-than-expected readings from the ADP Employment Change report and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may hold off from cutting rates in December.

At the same time, improved market sentiment, reflected in firmer global equities after recent weakness, is discouraging investors from making large bets on Gold. That said, the broader outlook remains constructive amid persistent geopolitical and economic risks.

Market movers: US Dollar eases with focus on shutdown, tariffs and Fed commentary

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.91, retreating after briefly climbing to a five-month high of 100.36 on Wednesday.
• Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC on Thursday that “most labor market indicators show stability,” with only “mild cooling” and “a little downside risk.” He said he “may be reluctant to continue the rate-cutting cycle,” though noted the settling point for rates will be “a fair bit below” current levels.
• The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, surpassing the previous record of 35 days. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump urged Republicans to do whatever it takes to reopen the government, including considering the abolition of the Senate filibuster.
• The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday over the legality of President Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The hearing drew intense scrutiny as several justices, including members of the conservative bloc, questioned whether the 1977 law grants the president authority to impose broad trade measures without congressional approval.
• The World Gold Council’s (WGC) US Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025 report, published on November 5, showed that US gold demand surged 58% YoY to 186 tonnes, driven by record inflows into gold-backed ETFs. US-listed funds added 137 tonnes in Q3, accounting for 62% of global inflows. Trading volumes on COMEX and US ETFs also jumped to a record $208 billion per day in October as Gold notched multiple new highs.
• Separately, the WGC’s Central Bank Gold Statistics report, released on November 4, revealed that central banks recorded net purchases of 39 tonnes in September, marking the strongest monthly total of the year. Brazil led the buying with 15 tonnes, followed by Kazakhstan and Guatemala, lifting year-to-date net buying to 200 tonnes.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD steadies above $4,000, eyes key $4,050 resistance

XAU/USD is edging lower within a familiar range, as bears attempt to reclaim near-term control. The metal is testing the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

On the upside, bulls face a tough test at the $4,020-$4,050 resistance zone, which has capped every upside attempt in recent sessions. A clear breakout above this barrier could trigger follow-through buying toward the $4,100-$4,150 region.

On the downside, the 50-period SMA at $3,985 now serves as immediate support. A sustained move below it may invite fresh selling pressure, exposing the $3,900 floor, where repeated dip-buying has previously kept bears in check.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered above the 50 midpoint, suggesting improving bullish momentum but still short of signaling a decisive breakout.

Copper is vulnerable to an unwind in the debasement trade, but that is a side-story, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Tight inventories and underinvestment support Copper prices

"For the first time since 2021, macro and micro are no longer at odds in Copper markets. Macro tailwinds associated with an epic AI capex boom were already expected to add roughly 550kt to Copper demand per annum by 2027, providing a meaningful boost to demand growth, even before considering the investments required in the associated power infrastructure and grids."

"A structural underinvestment in mining supply has left Copper markets captive to such tailwinds. China's Five Year Plan has further placed the AI race as a top priority in their agenda, potentially bolstering expectations notably as economists begin to estimate the associated required capex spend."

"From a microstructure perspective, the residual fear of US tariffs continues to keep global inventory pools tighter than would otherwise be the case. For as long as the threat of tariffs persists, the US will starve the world of Copper. Zoom out: an unraveling of the debasement trade would be an ideal set-up for Copper upside."

• The Euro trades slightly higher against the Swiss Franc on Thursday amid choppy market conditions.
• Eurozone Retail Sales slipped 0.1% MoM in September and rose 1% on the year.
• Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 3% in October.

The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, with the pair fluctuating in choppy conditions as traders digest Eurozone and Swiss economic data along with central bank commentary. At the time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading around 0.9317, showing mild intraday gains but little clear directional momentum.

According to data from Eurostat, Eurozone Retail Sales slipped 0.1% MoM in September, missing market expectations for a 0.2% increase. The previous month’s reading was revised down to a 0.1% decline from a 0.1% gain.

On a yearly basis, Retail Sales rose 1%, in line with forecasts but slower than the 1.6% growth recorded in August. The data underscore persistent weakness in consumer spending, suggesting households remain cautious despite easing inflation pressures across the region.

On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos adopted a cautiously optimistic tone, noting that growth risks are now much more balanced and that recent inflation data have been positive. He said he is comfortable with the current level of interest rates, while adding that wage developments remain consistent with projections.

In Switzerland, the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate held steady at 3% in October, signaling that the labor market remains resilient despite signs of slower growth. Separately, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Board Member Petra Tschudin, speaking on Wednesday, reaffirmed that monetary policy remains expansionary and that current rate settings should keep inflation within the target range. She acknowledged that the Swiss Franc has appreciated in real terms this year and described US tariff policy as a growing source of global uncertainty.

• Silver extends its rally, supported by renewed safe-haven flows amid persistent US fiscal uncertainty.
• The metal benefits from robust investment demand, with ETF inflows and central bank purchases reinforcing its bullish tone.
• Gains may face headwinds as the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance limits downside pressure on the US Dollar.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Thursday, maintaining its recovery above the $48 mark as the United States (US) government shutdown deepens market uncertainty. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $48.40, gaining 0.60% on the day, following a strong rebound from earlier-week lows.

The political stalemate in Washington, now extending into its sixth week, continues to weigh on sentiment and spur demand for safe-haven assets such as Silver and Gold. Investors remain cautious as the budget impasse threatens to curb economic activity and delay key macroeconomic data releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) softens slightly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreating below the 100 mark after touching a five-month high earlier this week. The ongoing fiscal uncertainty and mixed US data, including stronger-than-expected readings from the ADP Employment Change report and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), have complicated the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move.

Market participants now expect the central bank to maintain its current policy stance in December, with the probability of a rate cut diminishing after last week’s robust data. However, persistent geopolitical tensions, coupled with the shutdown’s potential impact on growth, keep the broader outlook for Silver constructive.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global demand for precious metals remains solid, bolstered by record inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and sustained central bank purchases. This backdrop, combined with a softer Greenback, continues to underpin Silver’s appeal as an alternative investment and inflation hedge.

In the near term, Silver’s gains could moderate as investors await fresh guidance from Federal Reserve officials later in the day. Nonetheless, the combination of political uncertainty, steady ETF inflows, and resilient safe-haven demand suggests that the grey metal is likely to remain supported above the $48 threshold.

President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, stated in an interview with CNBC on Thursday that the unemployment rate remains essentially unchanged and that he cannot rely on inflation being transitory.

Key Quotes

Most of labor market indicators show stability in the market.

Should be careful taking payroll job number drop as an indicator of job market.

Mild cooling in labor market.

Unemployment rate basically unchanged.

A little downside risk to labor market.

There's a lot of stability.

Recession starts are not usually low hiring, low firing.

Low hiring, low firing is character of an uncertain environment.

Maybe reluctant to continue rate cutting cycle.

Very little private sector information about inflation, will some time before we see any problems.

Makes me more uneasy with frontloading rate cuts.

Can't count on inflation being transitory.

Consumer spending strong, growth is strong.

Low hiring rate is weakest part of job market.”