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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Nov 04, 10:02 HKT
British Pound rallies to September 16 highs as USD slumps on election results
  • GBP/USD gains strong positive traction on Wednesday amid a broad-based USD selloff.
  • Hopes for Iran diplomacy and declining US bond yields drag the USD to a one-month low.
  • BoE rate hike bets underpin the GBP and contribute to the strong positive momentum.

The GBP/USD pair catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Wednesday, rallying beyond mid-1.3400s and hitting a fresh high since September 16 in the last hour amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, dives to an over one-month low as early US midterm vote counts pointed to rising chances of a Democratic victory. This raises the prospect of gridlock in Washington, driving safe-haven flows towards US Treasuries and dragging bond yields lower. Apart from this, hopes for Iran diplomacy turn out to be another factor undermining demand for the safe-haven buck, which, in turn, provides a strong boost to the GBP/USD pair.

President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran, fueling optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war and prompting traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues with its relative outperformance amid easing fiscal concerns following the recent UK budget updates and firming bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates at its policy meeting on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that hiring held relatively steady and job openings rose more than expected in September to 7.5 million from 7.2 million. This comes on top of inflation risks due to elevated energy prices and underpins prospects for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, however, fails to provide any respite to USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.

Moving ahead, traders now look to the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI for short-term impetuses later during the North American session. The focus, however, will be on the BoE policy update on Thursday and the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Nevertheless, the supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback in the GBP/USD pair is more likely to be bought into.

GBP/USD daily chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish near-term bias following an intraday breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3424. Moreover, spot prices hover marginally above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3467, suggesting that buyers are defending this pivot area after reclaiming the mid-range of the recent downswing.

Further up, resistance is located at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3556 ahead of the recent cycle high at 1.3670. On the downside, immediate supports are pegged near the 200-day SMA at 1.3424 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.3404, while deeper demand emerges at the 38.2% level at 1.3341 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3264 ahead of the structural floor near 1.3138.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.43% -0.37% -0.68% -0.30% -0.12% 0.11% -0.71%
EUR 0.43% 0.06% -0.25% 0.11% 0.29% 0.52% -0.29%
GBP 0.37% -0.06% -0.30% 0.08% 0.25% 0.47% -0.35%
JPY 0.68% 0.25% 0.30% 0.39% 0.57% 0.78% -0.04%
CAD 0.30% -0.11% -0.08% -0.39% 0.17% 0.39% -0.43%
AUD 0.12% -0.29% -0.25% -0.57% -0.17% 0.22% -0.60%
NZD -0.11% -0.52% -0.47% -0.78% -0.39% -0.22% -0.81%
CHF 0.71% 0.29% 0.35% 0.04% 0.43% 0.60% 0.81%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Nov 04, 09:48 HKT
China’s RatingDog Services PMI eases to 50.8 in October

China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declines to 50.8 in October from 51.6 in September, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Wednesday. 

Market reaction 

The China-proxy Australian Dollar remains firm following the weaker China’s RatingDog Services PMI report. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is up 0.15% on the day at 0.6975.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Nov 04, 09:46 HKT
Breaking: US Dollar falls below 101.50 as early midterm results point to Democratic gains
  • US Dollar Index tumbles to around 101.25 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
  • Americans voted in midterm elections on Tuesday, which will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) faces some selling pressure near 101.30 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the US midterm election outcomes later in the day for fresh impetus.

Yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year treasury yields dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.566%. Benchmark 10-year yields were down six bps to 4.90%.

Americans are voting in midterm elections that will deliver a verdict on President Donald Trump's second term. Polls have closed in some early states. According to live data from the Decision Desk HQ, election results have been called in 201 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats securing 124 seats and Republicans winning 77.

Meanwhile, Democrat Jon Ossoff has won the US Senate race in Georgia, securing a second term and fending off a challenge from Trump-backed Mike Collins. The state is crucial for Democrats to retain as part of their quest to reclaim control of the Senate.

“Early headlines and prediction markets are suggesting a rising probability of a blue wave,” said Andrew Ticehurst, a senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. “That scenario is generally regarded as being negative for the dollar and positive for US Treasuries. Markets are reacting consistently with that in early Asia trading.”

US midterm elections FAQs

The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.

They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.

No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.

Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.

US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.

Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.

Nov 04, 09:32 HKT
Japanese Yen recovers from three-week low as intervention risks meet broadly weaker USD
  • USD/JPY drifts lower during the Asian session on Wednesday amid a combination of negative factors.
  • Intervention risks prompt some JPY short-covering and weigh on spot prices amid fresh USD selling.
  • Hopes for Iran diplomacy and sliding US bond yields weigh on the USD ahead of US election results.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak to hit a near three-week top the previous day amid a combination of factors. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-158.00s, down around 0.20% for the day, as traders brace for some volatility stemming from US midterm election results.

Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a weaker US Dollar (USD), exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the joint FX statement with the US persists and that the government is prepared to act to curb excessive or disorderly weakness in the JPY.

Meanwhile, the optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war undermines the safe-haven Greenback and contributes to the USD/JPY pair's offered tone. In fact, President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the US has ​no immediate ‌plans to strike Iran and we seem to be ​getting ​everything we want, prompting traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium and weighing on the USD.

Moreover, US government bond yields ease back down as investors monitor early midterm election results amid prospects of Republicans losing their majority in the House of Representatives and possibly in the Senate as well. This further keeps USD bulls on the defensive, though firming hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, bolstered by Tuesday's upbeat US labor market data, could limit deeper losses.

The Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that hiring held relatively steady and job openings rose more than expected in September to 7.5 million from 7.2 million. Adding to this, energy-driven inflation risks back the case for further Fed policy tightening, which warrants some caution before positioning for a further depreciating move for the USD and the USD/JPY pair.

Apart from this, the persistently wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan might cap the lower-yielding JPY, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out in the near-term. Moving ahead, traders now look to the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI for short-term impetus later during the North American session.

USD/JPY daily chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.15 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 159.75, which keeps the near-term bias capped and mildly bearish. Price is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 158.45, suggesting a pivotal barrier overhead that needs to be reclaimed for any sustainable recovery toward the upper Fibonacci band.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at 157.16, ahead of deeper Fibonacci floors at 155.56 and the structural cycle low near 152.97, where stronger demand could be expected if selling pressure resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Nov 04, 09:26 HKT
Euro rises to near 1.1250, US midterm elections in spotlight
  • EUR/USD gains traction to near 1.1240 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
  • US midterm elections will take center stage on Wednesday.
  • ECB’s Nagel says the central bank will probably have to hike in December.

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.1240 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. US midterm election uncertainty exerts some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Traders will closely watch the election results ahead of the US September jobs data later this week.

Americans are voting in midterm elections that will deliver a verdict on US President Donald Trump's second term. The race for control of Congress remains open, with key contests still undecided.

In the US House, media have projected winners in about two dozen of the chamber's 435 seats, none of which were in races expected to be closely contested. In the US Senate, Democrats have won the first seven of 35 seats up for grabs on Tuesday, including a win by US Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia, according to US media projections. Even with these initial victories, the party must still pick up a net of four seats to win control of the Senate.

Hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers also lift the shared currency. ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank will probably increase borrowing costs next month due to the worsening outlook for inflation.

The ECB held the key interest rates steady last week after raising them twice since the start of the Iran war. Several officials have indicated additional hikes may be necessary. Economists expect a final move in rates next month, though markets see tightening continuing beyond that, into 2027.

Euro edges lower as ECB keeps December hike risk alive

Analysts at Scotiabank note that the Euro is trading modestly softer against the Dollar in subdued conditions, with the move framed by ongoing hawkish messaging from the ECB. They highlight comments from ECB Governing Council member Radev, who stressed that the October rate pause "does not mean that tightening is over," thereby "keeping the door open for a December hike." Scotiabank points out that "Dec OIS are pricing in 22bps of tightening risk," underscoring that markets still see a meaningful chance of further policy action.

On the commodity side, Scotiabank observes that "despite the drop in crude oil prices this week, the European energy focus remains on natgas/power where prices have eased but remain significantly above even the most pessimistic ECB forecasts." This persistent elevation in gas and power costs continues to shape the inflation backdrop in the Eurozone, even as headline energy markets appear calmer.

In terms of fiscal developments, Scotiabank also flags that "France reported its September YTD budget balance of EUR159.2bn, in line with expectations," suggesting no major surprise from one of the Eurozone’s key sovereign borrowers.

Nagel flags likely December hike, supporting Euro upside risk

ECB’s Nagel delivers a stronger-than-usual hawkish signal, with the 8.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score notably above the 7/10 historic average, reinforcing expectations for tighter policy. The explicit remark that “a rate hike in December is very likely to be necessary” and the warning that inflationary pressures are approaching an adverse scenario underline a clear bias toward further tightening, supportive of the Euro on rate-differential grounds.

Nagel’s emphasis on preventing an energy price spike from morphing into broad-based inflation, while stressing that France’s budget issues are not a task for monetary policy, keeps the focus squarely on price stability. This combination of inflation vigilance and confidence in fiscal containment suggests limited tolerance for upside inflation surprises, increasing the probability of additional hikes and sustaining Euro resilience against the Dollar and other majors in the near term.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD


Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades with a bearish near-term bias, as spot remains capped beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price holds just above the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle line, suggesting some underlying but fragile demand, while the upper band at 1.1254 marks immediate overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 stays below the 50 line, hinting that recovery attempts lack strong momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger upper band around 1.1255, ahead of the more meaningful barrier at the 100-day SMA near 1.1420, where sellers are likely to defend the broader downtrend. On the downside, the first support level aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 1.1195, with a deeper cushion at the lower band near 1.1135; a daily close below this latter floor would reinforce the bearish structure and open the way to further losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Nov 04, 09:15 HKT
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7180 vs. 6.7150 previous

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7180 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7150 and 6.6811 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs

The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Nov 04, 09:14 HKT
WTI rises to near $96.00 amid US-Iran peace uncertainty
  • WTI gains support after falling nearly 7% this week due to easing Middle East supply fears.
  • Trump signaled no immediate plans to strike Iran, though Israel hinted an attack could come this week.
  • Mediators offered new peace proposals, but Iran’s security chief declared Washington's current response unsatisfactory.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil extends gains for the second successive day, trading around $96.10 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices gain as investors grappled with uncertainty surrounding ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that both countries are currently evaluating new proposals put forward by mediators to bridge their differences. However, Iran’s national security chief indicated in a social media post that Washington’s response remains unsatisfactory.

US Donald Trump stated that the US has no immediate plan to strike Iran and seems to be getting what it wants, according to the Financial Times. He added that while the US is ready to act if needed, there may be no reason to do so, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinting at an attack later this week.

The US conducted defensive strikes against Iran earlier this week, targeting surface-to-air missile systems used against American assets. Nevertheless, the limited scope of these strikes suggests there is no immediate return to large-scale military operations.

Overall, the WTI, US oil benchmark, remains down around 6% so far this week. The decline continues to be driven by optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough alongside signs of a recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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