Forex News
ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) remains supported as investors focus on French fiscal risks and repricing of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening versus a more resilient Fed path. He highlights the US Dollar Index (DXY) pushing to new yearly highs, with 102.85 as the next upside level, and says unchanged Fed policy in October followed by a December hike is now comfortably priced.
DXY targets new yearly highs
"DXY dollar index is pushing smartly to new highs of the year. It is being propelled by the sell-off in the euro, which represents 58% of the DXY basket. 102.85 would seem to be the next upside target here."
"Friday's softish September jobs data failed to materially dent prospects for the dollar. Instead, it seems the market is pretty comfortable pricing in unchanged Fed policy at the late October meeting and then a hike at the December meeting. In terms of how this week will play out for short-dated US rates, the focus will probably be on today's ISM services data and then the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday evening."
"Both look positive for the dollar, with the latter providing some colour on why so many Fed members were forecasting a second Fed hike this year in their Dot Plot submissions."
"Core support for the dollar should continue to come from the fact that expectations for the monetary policy tightening cycle remain far more resilient for the Fed than for overseas central banks – especially the ECB. Since late September, 30bp has been removed from the ECB's expected tightening cycle compared to just 13bp for the Fed."
"Independent euro weakness is the dominant story in FX markets as investors adjust positions for French fiscal risk. With the ECB tightening cycle far more vulnerable to repricing than the Fed's, EUR/USD looks set to remain under pressure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Australian Dollar recovers almost its entire early losses against the Japanese Yen.
- The RBA is unlikely to hike interest rates again in the near term.
- Japan PM Takaichi pledges to exercise tighter controls on debt issuance.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounces back strongly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and flattens at around 109.80 during the European trading session on Monday.
The antipodean recovers sharply even as financial markets doubt that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike interest rates again this year after raising them already four times.
RBA seen on hold amid softness in housing market
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the latest inflation data underscore why “1.5 additional rate hikes by the RBA – as the market was still expecting yesterday – are likely to be too much.” One day after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting, they note that the August CPI figures help explain the shift, even though “there’s no question that inflation is still too high, and it will take a while before it returns to the middle of the target range.”
Commerzbank stresses that “interest rate hikes always take effect with a certain time lag,” and points in particular to signs of strain in the real estate sector. They highlight that “building permits fell again in August by 6.1% compared to the previous month and prices in the largest cities continue to decline,” suggesting that the cumulative impact of past tightening is still working its way through the economy. Against this backdrop, the bank concludes that “the RBA would likely be well advised to wait and see how things develop in the coming months,” rather than pressing ahead with the scale of additional hikes currently embedded in market pricing.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen outperforms its major peers as Japan has vowed fiscal discipline. “We will control the annual debt issuance amount appropriately while scrutinising the economy, prices, tax revenues, interest rates, debt-servicing costs, and market developments,” Japan Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi said. This has improved the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence data, a key indicator of Investor morale, comes in lower at 2.7 in October from 5.1 in September.
Market reaction
There seems to no impact of Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence data on the Euro (EUR). So far on Monday, the Euro is being driven by heightened French fiscal risks. At press time, EUR/USD is down 0.37% to near 1.1207 even after clawing back some of its early losses.
Economic Indicator
Sentix Investor Confidence
With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually, a higher reading is seen as positive for the Eurozone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.
Read more.Last release: Mon Oct 05, 2026 08:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.7
Consensus: -
Previous: 5.1
Source: Sentix
- EUR/GBP prolongs its downtrend for the seventh straight day amid a weaker Euro.
- Investors remain worried about France’s debt crisis ahead of the presidential election.
- The oversold daily RSI warrants some caution before positioning for further losses.
The EUR/GBP cross attracts sellers for the seventh straight day and drops back closer to the year-to-date low, around the 0.8460-0.8455 region, at the start of a new week.
The shared currency continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns that the spiraling debt crisis in France could spill over to other high-debt European nations. This comes ahead of the French presidential election next year and adds to market anxiety over future fiscal policy, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/GBP cross is to the downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits in negative territory with a declining line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold readings near 25, hinting that while downside pressure dominates, the sell-off is becoming stretched. This suggests that further weakness could increasingly encounter dip-buying rather than follow-through selling.
In the meantime, any corrective bounce might now confront an immediate hurdle near the 0.8500 psychological mark ahead of the 0.8540 region. A sustained move beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the EUR/GBP cross beyond the 0.8600 round figure, which coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open room for a corrective rebound.
On the flip side, bears might now await a break below the previous YTD trough, around mid-0.8400s, before positioning for an extension of the recent rejection slide from the 200-day EMA. The EUR/GBP cross might then aim towards testing the 0.8400 mark before testing the May 2025 swing low, near the 0.8380 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/GBP daily chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.09% | -0.05% | 0.01% | -0.21% | 0.39% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | -0.35% | -0.46% | -0.44% | -0.52% | -0.14% | -0.39% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | 0.35% | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.15% | 0.18% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.33% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.44% | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.12% | 0.26% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.35% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | 0.14% | -0.18% | -0.33% | -0.26% | -0.35% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.39% | 0.04% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.13% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US futures indices move little as market caution rises amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.
- Softer US employment data fuels investor hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate relief.
- Markets await fresh ISM services data alongside key corporate earnings reports from major companies.
Dow Jones futures inch lower by 0.07% to trade near 51,440 during European hours on Monday. S&P 500 futures decline by 0.09% to trade around 7,770, while Nasdaq 100 futures remain steady near 31,070.
US stock futures deliver mixed results as traders adopt a cautious stance amid surging safe-haven demand. This flight to safety was primarily driven by deteriorating geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, where tensions escalated sharply after Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a major offensive to reclaim territory from Houthi forces.
Middle East conflict intensified further following the Iran-aligned group's seizure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden that serves as a vital bypass route for regional crude exports avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite these geopolitical headwinds, broader market sentiment found underlying support as softer US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Investors are now closely monitoring global risk sentiment while awaiting the release of the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index later in the day for clearer market direction. Corporate earnings are also taking center stage, with major releases expected from companies including Constellation Brands, Levi Strauss, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines.
US labour data seen resilient as Deutsche Bank still looks for further Fed hikes
Economists at Deutsche Bank acknowledge that the weaker September payrolls headline was underwhelming, but stress that “although the headline payroll number was disappointing, the wider labour-market picture remains relatively resilient, particularly alongside recent ADP and jobless-claims readings.” Against that backdrop, they note that their US team “continues to expect two further 25bp Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters,” arguing that the underlying labour-market signals remain consistent with a gradual extension of the current tightening cycle.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Gold’s brief post-payrolls rebound faded as long-end US yields stayed elevated and the Dollar remained firm. The bank argues that reduced Fed hike risk alone is insufficient for a sustained rally; a clearer, lasting decline in long-end and real yields, alongside some easing in Oil-driven inflation concerns, is needed for a firmer Gold recovery.
Still vulnerable while yields stay high
"Still waiting for yields to turn. Gold’s post-US payrolls rebound faded quickly despite a softer US labour report and a further pullback in October Fed hike expectations. The key issue is that long-end yields did not fall sustainably and the USD stayed firm, limiting follow-through in gold."
"This reinforces the view that lower Fed hike risk alone may not be enough to drive the next leg higher. The more important catalyst is whether softer US data can pull long-end and real yields lower on a more sustained basis. Elevated oil prices remain a complication by keeping inflation and term premium concerns alive."
"Near term, gold may remain vulnerable to consolidation if yields stay high, while a clearer decline in yields and the USD would provide a firmer basis for recovery."
"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell slightly. We continue to watch price action - compression of moving averages typically precedes a breakout trade. And there are some risk of gold trying the downside in the short term. Support at 4110, 4030 and 3944 (previous low). Gold needs to reclaim back above 4280 – 4330 (21, 50, 100 DMAs) to see bearish forces negate. Resistance at 4300/50, 4460 levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang observes USD/JPY fluctuated between 156.94 and 158.21, closing at 157.83, with intraday trading expected inside 157.10–158.10. Over 1–3 weeks, he now favours a broad consolidation between 156.35 and 158.70 rather than deeper pullbacks. On a 1–3 month horizon, however, he still flags rapid downside momentum that could drive further weakness toward the January low at 152.08.
Dollar-Yen seen consolidating within wide band
"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Thursday, USD rose to 158.45 and then closed 0.43% higher at 158.07. When USD was at 157.90 in the early Asian session, we indicated that “the upside bias has eased,” and we expected it “to trade in a range between 157.20 and 158.30.” USD subsequently rose to 158.21, but during the NY session, it briefly plunged to a low of 156.94. USD rebounded from the low to close at 157.83 (-0.15%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 157.10 and 158.10."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Monday (28 Sep, spot at 157.50), we highlighted that USD “could pull back further, but any decline should stay within a 156.00/158.70 range.” Aside from a brief dip to 156.35, USD has made little headway on the downside. From here, rather than pulling back further, USD is likely to trade in a range between 156.35 and 158.70."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
