Forex News
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Senior Technical Strategist Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH has broken higher, with momentum improving after Monday’s move to 6.8051 and a close at 6.8038. The bank now sees scope for a test of resistance at 6.8080 and potentially last month’s high at 6.8195, provided the pair holds above nearby support levels.
Upside risk building above 6.8080
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to a high of 6.7998 on Monday. When USD was at 6.7945 yesterday, we highlighted the following: “Despite the advance, upward momentum has not increased much. However, USD could potentially rise above 6.8000. The major resistance at 6.8080 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 6.7900, followed by 6.7850.” We were not wrong, as after dipping briefly to a low of 6.7894, USD rose to a high of 6.8051. USD closed 0.14% higher at 6.8038. The advance has gathered momentum, and today, USD could break above the 6.8080 resistance. However, any further advance is unlikely to reach last month’s high of 6.8195. To sustain the momentum, USD must hold above 6.7960 (minor support is at 6.8000)."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the same view since last Wednesday (01 Jul, spot at 6.7920), when we highlighted that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 6.7750 and 6.8080.” Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 6.8051. Upward momentum is starting to build, and if USD closes above 6.8080, it is likely to head higher toward last month’s high of 6.8195. The upside risk will remain intact as long as USD holds above 6.7830 (‘strong support’ level)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US strikes on Iran sour sentiment and lift crude prices.
- Fed minutes show officials favor shorter, less dovish guidance.
- Jobless claims and European inflation data drive next catalyst.
The Euro holds firm against the US Dollar on Wednesday as hostilities in the Middle East continued, with the US attacking Iran for the second straight day at around the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1420, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1391.
EUR/USD holds firm as Fed minutes, Hormuz strikes lift USD
The US Central Command revealed in a post that “At the direction of the Commander in Chief, US Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The markets reacted immediately to the headline, as risk appetite soured, as depicted by US equity markets finishing Wednesday’s session with losses. Crude prices are registering a leg up, with Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, up 3.57% at $74.77.
Earlier, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its last meeting, which showed that all officials voted unanimously to hold rates while acknowledging that the labour market is stable. Furthermore, most participants “preferred” not to use the previous dovish language and agreed to release a shorter monetary policy statement.
Regarding monetary policy, several participants commented that they don’t see it as restrictive, but a few others see it as slightly restrictive.
Meanwhile, money markets have priced in an 18% probability of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase in September, with a 25-bps hike at around 52%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.10% at 101.20.
In Europe, the economic docket was light, with European Central Bank (ECB) officials crossing the wires. Joachim Nagel of the Bundesbank said, following Iran’s attacks, “we are back where we began,” and that the ECB should take a meeting-by-meeting approach. Meanwhile, ECB’s Primož Dolenc made comments about being unsure of what they, the central bank, will do in two weeks.
On Thursday, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims data. Across the pond, Germany’s Trade Balance is eyed, ahead of the release of inflation figures in Germany and France.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1416, extending its slide below the clustered moving averages, with the latest triple simple moving average group (50, 100, 200) around 1.1572 now acting as overhead supply. Price sits firmly inside a downward parallel channel, below its 1.1610 upper boundary, while the former resistance trend line break level at 1.1615 reinforces the bearish structure above spot. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 40 suggests persistent but not extreme selling pressure, aligning with the pair’s capped tone while it trades beneath all major trend indicators.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges near the lower boundary of the descending channel at 1.1437, where any rebound would first be challenged, before the triple SMA cluster around 1.1572 limits further recovery. Above that, the channel top at 1.1610 and the downtrend-line break level at 1.1615 form a dense barrier, while a stronger recovery would target the horizontal resistance zone at 1.1849. With no significant underlying support levels immediately below price in this dataset, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside as long as it holds under these layered resistances.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
OCBC Bank’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Taiwan Dollar (TWD) remains on the back foot, with USD/TWD above 32, driven mainly by foreign equity selling and dividend/remittance-related US Dollar (USD) demand rather than weaker fundamentals. Authorities are encouraging quicker execution of large USD sell orders to mobilise natural supply, while exporter USD selling and CBC guidance may reduce the risk of a disorderly move higher in USD/TWD.
Vulnerable on flows but disorderly spike risk tempered
"TWD has stayed on the back foot, with USD/TWD breaking above the 32 handle. The move looks largely flow-driven rather than a deterioration in domestic fundamentals. Foreign equity selling has weighed on Taiwan equities and added to USD demand, while dividend/profit remittance flows also added to seasonality demand for USD."
"CBC officials have framed recent FX weakness as largely USD-led but also pointed to portfolio flows and elevated Taiwan equity valuations as factors weighing on TWD. Elsewhere, there were reports saying that the CBC had asked local banks receiving large USD sell orders to complete the transactions on the same day, rather than delaying or staggering execution."
"This suggests the authorities are hoping to bring forward more natural USD supply to help tame TWD depreciation pressure."
"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose into overbought conditions. Upside risks persist but not ruling out the risk of snapback. Resistance at 32.22 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 32.50/60 levels. Support at 31.95, 31.76 (21 DMA)."
"Near term, TWD may remain vulnerable if foreign equity outflows persist and USD sentiment stays firm into the FOMC minutes. But the presence of exporter/USD-selling supply, alongside CBC guidance to smooth execution, may partially help to reduce the risk of a disorderly move higher in USD/TWD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD trades dead flat between 0.6900 and 0.6950, printing an indecision candle as the July rebound stalls.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve minutes and a fresh Middle East escalation pull the Aussie in opposite directions and cancel out.
- Thursday's Chinese inflation data at 01:30 GMT decides which way the coil unwinds.
AUD/USD trades pinned between 0.6900 and 0.6950 on Wednesday, essentially unchanged and printing the kind of indecision candle that tells traders the week's rebound has run out of sponsorship. The Aussie has spent five sessions climbing away from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6900, and the reward is a market that no longer knows what to do with it: No follow-through, no rejection, just a doji parked in the middle of last week's range. For a currency that spent June shedding almost three big figures, standing still this close to the 200-day EMA reads less like stability and more like suspense.
Two hawkish central banks walk into a stand-off
Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, released at 18:00 GMT, showed a committee split nearly down the middle on the next move, with the June dot grid printing nine hikes against eight holds and one lonely cut. That quiet split keeps the US Dollar bid on every dip and puts a lid on risk currencies generally, the Aussie included.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is running its own hawkish experiment from the other side, holding the cash rate at 4.35% in June after three hikes this year, which is precisely why the pair refuses to break down. Monday's TD-MI Inflation Gauge cooled to 3.9% YoY from 4.4%, lending the hold some vindication without retiring the tightening debate. Two central banks leaning the same direction leave AUD/USD without a rate differential to trade, and a currency without a story consolidates.
The tightening debate is dormant rather than dead: The Governor has framed any inflation print with a three in front of it as unacceptable, and rate markets that flirted with a cash rate near 4.70% by year-end during the worst of the energy shock have only partially walked that back. A hawkish central bank that refuses to act is still a floor under its currency, just not a bid.
A war that helps and hurts in the same breath
Fresh US strikes on Iran and a Crude Oil surge of more than 6% would normally sink a risk proxy like the Aussie, but Australia exports the very energy the war keeps repricing, so the terms-of-trade channel offsets a meaningful slice of the risk-off channel. The chart's verdict is paralysis rather than direction: The pair neither joins the Dollar bid nor collects a commodity premium, and Wednesday's candle is the flattest of the month.
The catch is that the commodity premium runs through Beijing before it reaches Sydney. Iron Ore, not energy, remains the export that sets the Aussie's pulse, and Chinese construction demand has spent the year absorbing an energy shock of its own, which blunts the terms-of-trade windfall. That leaves the currency long a war dividend it cannot fully collect and short a risk appetite it cannot fully escape.
Momentum agrees with the stalemate, with the Stochastic Relative Strength Index flat in the high 20s, going nowhere from nowhere. The slide from the May peak just shy of 0.7300 remains the chart's dominant feature, and a sideways coil forming beneath a falling 50-day EMA above 0.7000 is more often distribution wearing a disguise than a base in construction.
Beijing gets the deciding vote
Thursday's Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands at 01:30 GMT, expected at 1.1% YoY, easing from 1.2%, with the monthly print seen at -0.2%; the Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to accelerate to 4.1% from 3.9% as war-driven input costs pass through factory gates. A consumer deflating while factory costs inflate describes a margin squeeze, not a recovery, and Australia's export machine is priced off exactly this demand. A downside CPI surprise hands the bears the 0.6900 test they have been waiting for; an upside one buys the coil another week.
US Initial Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 GMT with 218K expected, and the heavier set pieces wait at month-end, when the RBA, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England all decide policy within roughly the same 48-hour window. Until Beijing or Washington breaks the tie, the 0.6900-0.6950 box is the market's honest opinion of the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD technical levels to watch
Resistance: 0.6950 caps this week's candles, ahead of the 0.7000 handle and the falling 50-day EMA just above it; bulls own nothing until that zone breaks.
Support: The 200-day EMA at 0.6900 is the floor that matters, backed by 0.6850 sitting beneath last week's washout low.
Bias: Bearish while capped below 0.6950; a daily close under 0.6900 puts the June downtrend back in charge toward 0.6850, and only a daily close above 0.6950 earns the rebound another leg higher.
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- GBP/USD trades just below 1.3400, up a quarter of a percent, leaning on the 200-day EMA that has capped it all week.
- A war-driven Oil spike has markets fully pricing a Bank of England hike by year-end, with November odds now above even.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve minutes keep the Dollar bid and the ceiling firmly in place.
GBP/USD trades just below 1.3400 on Wednesday, up around a quarter of a percent and once again leaning on the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) that has repelled every advance since the pair clawed back from its mid-June washout. Cable has recovered roughly two big figures from the 1.3150 area in under two weeks, and the reward for the effort is a ceiling it cannot break and a floor it refuses to leave.
An imported inflation shock does the heavy lifting
The Pound's bid is not homegrown: Fresh US strikes on Iran sent Crude Oil surging more than 6% and dragged Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations up with it. Markets now fully price a 25-basis-point hike by year-end, up from roughly three-quarters odds before President Trump declared the Versailles ceasefire over, and a November move trades better than even. The June hold at 3.75% already carried two dissenters voting for 4.00%, so the hawkish bloc only needs the energy shock to persist, and the Strait of Hormuz is supplying persistence daily.
The same shock cuts the other way through the real economy, which is why the trap holds instead of resolving higher. Services inflation at 3.7% sits exactly where the BoE cannot ignore it, while the services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is below the 50 line, payroll counts are shrinking, and pay growth is cooling toward 3.4%. A central bank hiking into a contracting services sector is not a currency's friend for long, and Sterling traders keep pricing both halves of that sentence at once.
Tuesday's Financial Stability Report added little heat, flagging leverage, stretched valuations and cyber risk while pronouncing the system resilient, and the Governor has already ruled out near-term cuts while conceding the 2% target now arrives later than forecast. The rates market heard all of it as permission to keep the hike priced, which is the only reason a currency attached to a contracting services sector is trading at a three-week high.
The Dollar side refuses to blink
Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, released at 18:00 GMT, barely moved the pair, and the non-reaction is itself the finding. The account showed a committee split almost evenly, with many members seeing the funds rate above the current range by year-end and many others at or below it; the June dot grid printed nine hikes against eight holds and a single cut, while the new Chair keeps stripping forward guidance out of the communication entirely. A quiet split changes no pricing, but it guarantees the Dollar stays bid into every inflation print.
With the Bank Rate at 3.75% and the Federal Reserve (Fed) range at 3.50%-3.75%, there is no meaningful yield gap for Cable to trade, so the pair defaults to headlines and positioning. UK politics supplies just enough of the former: Andy Burnham remains the presumptive successor to Keir Starmer, with a handover possible by mid-July, yet he has still not named a Chancellor, with Ed Miliband floated for the role. Sterling is pricing a managed transition rather than a fight, which is one more reason nothing moves far.
A quiet calendar keeps the cage locked
Thursday offers a BoE deputy governor's speech at 09:30 GMT and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT, with 218K expected; neither is built to break a 200-day EMA. The heavier tests stack up from July 14, when US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data opens a run that includes UK growth, jobs and inflation prints before the Fed and the BoE both decide policy at the end of the month. Until one of those releases forces the issue, the consolidation is the trade, and the market knows it: Momentum sits mid-range and directionless while the pair oscillates in an ever-tighter pocket beneath the moving average.
Cable has spent the week grinding against the same fifty-pip pocket beneath the average, and compression this stubborn tends to resolve violently rather than politely. The awkward part for both camps is that the calendar between now and July 14 offers nothing with the horsepower to force the break, which leaves strait headlines and the Dollar's mood as the only wildcards with intraday teeth.
GBP/USD technical levels to watch
Resistance: The 200-day EMA just below 1.3400 is the wall, with 1.3450 behind it and the 1.3500 handle above that; the pair has not traded through that zone since sliding off the May peak near 1.3650.
Support: The 50-day EMA inside the 1.3350-1.3400 pocket props up intraday dips, ahead of 1.3300 and the June base at 1.3150.
Bias: Bullish only on a daily close above 1.3400; until the 200-day EMA gives way, rallies are for fading back into the 1.3350 pocket, and a loss of 1.3300 would flip the tape bearish toward the June base.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- WTI trades near $74.50, up more than 3.5%, as a fresh round of US strikes on Iran tears through the days-old ceasefire patch.
- More than 80 targets around the Strait of Hormuz have been hit in the largest US operation since February, and Tehran promises a massive response against regional bases.
- Hawkish Federal Reserve minutes and Thursday's Chinese inflation data keep the demand side of the ledger honest while the supply side burns.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades near $74.50 on Wednesday, up more than 3.5% and extending a rebound that began at the $68.00 floor in early July. The catalyst is depressingly familiar: The US has begun another series of strikes on Iranian military targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump now describes the Versailles agreement as over while allowing talks to limp on. Energy traders spent three weeks selling the peace; they are spending Wednesday buying the war back.
The recursion trade returns
Tehran hit three tankers transiting the strait between Monday and Tuesday; Washington revoked the sanctions waiver behind legal Iranian Oil exports and answered through US Central Command (CENTCOM) with strikes on more than 80 targets, from air defences and coastal radar to anti-ship missile batteries and over 60 Revolutionary Guard small boats. Explosions and power cuts are reported around Chabahar and Konarak on the Gulf of Oman coast, while Iranian state-adjacent media insist the Bushehr nuclear plant took no damage and promise a massive retaliation against US bases in the region.
The pattern now matters more than any single strike: The February war needed six weeks to reach a ceasefire; the Versailles accord broke within a week of its June signature; the latest patch has failed inside ten days, with Tehran already claiming fresh hits on US-linked facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Each pause is buying less time than the last, and the tanker lane between Bandar Abbas and the Omani coast keeps hosting the reopening act.
A supply story hiding inside a risk premium
The waiver revocation is the part of Wednesday's news that outlives the headlines. Transactions permitted under the old licence must wind down by July 17, which pulls legal Iranian barrels back off the market just as the British Navy-linked maritime agency lifts the strait's threat level to severe and insurers reprice every hull that transits it. That is physical tightening layered on top of fear, and it is the reason the bid is broadening rather than fading into the afternoon.
The restraint in the move is still as telling as the move itself. The March closure of the strait ran this chart to a spike high above $113.00; Wednesday's rally stalls below $76.00, under a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sitting just shy of $77.50 and miles beneath the 50-day EMA above $81.00. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) lifted August output targets by 188,000 barrels per day only days ago, and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy leans on demand from the other side, so the market is pricing a rerun of a contained exchange rather than a second full closure.
The cross-asset tape backs the contained-exchange read. Gold trades almost 1% lower even with missiles in the air, sold on hawkish Fed minutes and a firmer Dollar rather than bid as a haven, and equities are absorbing the headlines without panic. When the inflation hedge underperforms the inflation source, the market is calling this an energy shock rather than a systemic one, and Crude Oil is the only asset being asked to carry the war.
The calendar keeps the demand side honest
Thursday brings the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 01:30 GMT, with consensus at 1.1% YoY and the monthly print seen at -0.2%, alongside a Producer Price Index (PPI) expected to accelerate to 4.1% from 3.9% as war-inflated input costs pass through factory gates. China is the marginal barrel of global demand, and a soft consumer print would undercut the rally's demand leg just as its supply leg strengthens.
US Initial Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 GMT with 218K expected, while Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, released at 18:00 GMT, showed a committee split almost evenly between hikes and holds for the rest of the year. A Fed arguing with itself about tightening into an energy shock keeps every inflation-sensitive release live, and the June US CPI report on July 14 is the next referee. Momentum is at least cooperating with the bounce for now, with the Stochastic Relative Strength Index curling up from oversold territory on the daily chart.
WTI Crude Oil technical levels to watch
Resistance: The session high just below $76.00 is the first hurdle, followed by the 200-day EMA just shy of $77.50; beyond that, the 50-day EMA above $81.00 marks the roof of any recovery corridor.
Support: $72.00 guards Wednesday's breakout, with the early-July floor at $68.00 the level that keeps the rebound alive; the yearly low near $62.00 is the disaster handle underneath.
Bias: Bullish while $72.00 holds; the strait owns the tape and dips are for buying, with only a genuine de-escalation or a daily close back under $72.00 handing control to the sellers.
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities’ Senior Asia Economist Alex Loo argues that China’s fiscal stance is turning austere as local governments prioritize debt clean-up over growth. The report expects only limited fiscal support in H2 2026 unless GDP drops towards 4.0–4.2%, with policy likely focused on faster infrastructure execution, modest PBoC easing and continued Ministry of Finance conservatism.
Stimulus hopes face fiscal constraints
"We examine China's fiscal balance and conclude that local officials are focusing on debt clean-up instead of boosting economic growth. Fiscal policy is unlikely to deliver major H2 support unless GDP growth in 2026 slips towards 4.0-4.2% (vs our forecast of 4.6%)."
"Policy support is likely to come through faster infrastructure execution, not major new stimulus. A weak Q2 GDP print next week in the low-4% range will spark speculation of new stimulus from authorities."
"The likely policy response is quicker local bond issuance, faster project approvals, and some MoF relaxation on infrastructure scrutiny, alongside a possible 10bp PBoC rate cut in late Q3."
"Instead, we expect the statement to emphasize faster infrastructure build-out by local governments, as the sharp drop in investment was the main drag on H1 growth and runs against the priority to “boost domestic demand.” This likely means quicker local fundraising and project deployment, rather than new fiscal funding, with MoF relaxing scrutiny on project viability."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Georgette Boele at ABN AMRO highlights persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen as investors test authorities’ tolerance for depreciation. Fiscal expansion and a dovish Bank of Japan stance weigh on the currency, while Japan’s energy-importer status adds pressure. With stretched long-Dollar/short-Yen positioning and explicit upside levels, she warns that any intervention-driven reversal in USD/JPY could be sharp and lasting.
Authorities’ tolerance for yen weakness
"Despite these factors, we noted in last week’s FX Weekly that the risk of intervention in the yen had increased."
"USD/JPY is now approaching last week’s high of 162.84 and could move towards 164.50."
"The fact that intervention has not yet happened does not mean it will not happen."
"As we mentioned last week, positioning remains stretched: the market is long US dollars and very short yen."
"If sentiment turns in favour of the yen, be it because of intervention concerns or other factors, the rebound could be sharp."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF confirms a false breakout after failing above 0.8100.
- RSI remains bullish but shows signs of fading momentum.
- Break below 0.8000 exposes 50-day and 200-day SMA supports.
The USD/CHF pair recoils after reaching a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, edging down some 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates due to US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of an end to the ceasefire, as Iran attacked ships on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8078, following a false breakout above 0.8100.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
After forming a ‘morning star’ at the beginning of the week and testing 0.8100, the USD/CHF pair is now retreating below that level. Nevertheless, bullish momentum remains intact, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but shows signs of fading.
For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF needs to clear the high of the day at 0.8108, followed by the July 1 peak at 0.8120. On further strength, the next area of interest would be 0.8200, followed by the June 4, 2025, daily high at 0.8250. Above this level lies 0.8300.
On the flip side, if USD/CHF tumbles below the 0.8000 psychological figure, it could exacerbate a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7934 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7915. Below is the 0.7900 figure.
USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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