Forex News

• Strong US Initial Jobless Claims reinforce labor market resilience.
• Upbeat S&P Global PMIs signal solid economic momentum, lifting yields and the Greenback.
• AUD/USD seems muted as risk sentiment stays fragile despite the RBA’s relatively firm stance.

The AUD/USD pair trades neutrally near the 0.7160 price zone on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) gathered some strength following a fresh batch of solid United States (US) economic data. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K, slightly above the previous 212K but still consistent with a resilient labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance.

At the same time, the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) surprised to the upside, with the Manufacturing PMI climbing to 54.1 from 52.5 and the Services PMI improving to 51.3 from 49.8, pointing to sustained expansion in the US economy. The data helped lift US yields, underpinning the Greenback and weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Despite this pressure, downside in AUD/USD remained limited as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to signal a relatively hawkish bias amid sticky inflation, in contrast to the Fed, which is still debating the timing of future rate cuts. However, in the near term, stronger US data and cautious market sentiment are dominating price action, keeping the pair biased to the downside.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7159. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it stabilizes around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7159, trading well above the 100-period SMA at 0.7063, which underpins the broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 is neutral to slightly positive, suggesting consolidation with a mild topside inclination rather than aggressive momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the nearby horizontal barrier of 0.7163, followed by 0.7167, where a break would open the way for a stronger advance. On the downside, the 20-period SMA at 0.7159 serves as immediate pivot support, ahead of clustered horizontal levels at 0.7137 and 0.7133; a break below these floors would expose the deeper 100-period SMA support near 0.7063.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Gold trims intraday losses as US Dollar eases.
• Oil-driven inflation fuels higher-for-longer rate expectations, weighing on Gold
• Technically, XAU/USD trades below the Bollinger midline on the 4-hour chart, signaling downside pressure.

Gold (XAU/USD) trims earlier intraday losses on Thursday as the US Dollar loses momentum, but gains remain capped amid higher-for-longer rate expectations fueled by Oil-driven inflation.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,730, after hitting an intraday low of $4,684.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.57 after hitting an intraday high of 98.80.

Shipping disruptions in Hormuz sustain inflation fears

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are rising as the route remains under a dual blockade by the US Navy and Iran. US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that “we have total control over the Strait of Hormuz, no ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy.” He also added that he has ordered the Navy to “shoot any boat putting mines in Hormuz.”

Meanwhile, The Washington Post, citing a Pentagon assessment, reported that it could take up to six months to fully clear mines from the waterway, underscoring the risk of prolonged disruption to global oil supply.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly seized two vessels in the strait on Wednesday, according to shipping companies and the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Rising crude Oil prices, driven by these disruptions, continue to fuel inflation concerns globally, increasing the likelihood of a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment across major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). While Gold is typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on demand for the non-yielding asset as investors shift toward yield-bearing assets such as bonds.

Markets remain skeptical about whether the United States (US) and Iran will resume negotiations anytime soon. This comes despite the ceasefire extension announced by Trump, which Iranian officials have not formally accepted. Tehran has criticized Washington’s decision to maintain the naval blockade, calling it a key obstacle to negotiations.

On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214K, above the 212K forecast and up from 208K previously. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in April from 52.3 in March, marking a 47-month high, while the Services PMI improved to 51.3 from 49.8, reaching a two-month high.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD trades below the Bollinger midline, downside risks linger

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD remains capped in the near term, trading under the 20-period Simple Moving Average (the Bollinger middle band) at roughly $4,756, which reinforces a bearish bias despite still holding comfortably above the lower band support near $4,677. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 41 leans to the downside, suggesting sellers retain the upper hand, while the modest Average True Range (14) near 38 points to contained but persistent volatility.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-period SMA/Bollinger middle band at about $4,756, with a further hurdle at the upper Bollinger band near $4,834, where failure would keep the broader corrective tone intact. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around $4,677; a decisive break below this floor would open the door to a deeper pullback, whereas sustained defense of this area could encourage a consolidation phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• EUR/USD rebounds as USD loses momentum despite upbeat US PMI data.
• US-Iran tensions keep sentiment cautious, leaving EUR/USD driven by USD dynamics.
• Oil-driven inflation fears prompt markets to price in a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.

EUR/USD rebounds on Thursday after trading under pressure earlier in the day, as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum, allowing the Euro (EUR) to recover from intraday lows despite upbeat US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data and cautious market sentiment amid US-Iran tensions.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1714, bouncing from an intraday low of 1.1679. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.57 after hitting an intraday high of 98.80.

The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in April, beating expectations and up from 52.3 in March, marking a 47-month high. The S&P Global Services PMI also improved to 51.3, above forecasts of 50 and up from 49.8, reaching a two-month high, with both coming above expectations.

Meanwhile, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214K in the week ending April 18, above the 212K forecast and up from 208K previously.

Despite the strong PMI data, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on the upside surprise, with the pullback likely technical in nature. However, the downside should remain limited amid ongoing US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace talks.

In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that “we have total control over the Strait of Hormuz, no ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy.” He also added that he has ordered the Navy to “shoot any boat putting mines in Hormuz,” stating that the route is “sealed up tight” until Iran is able to make a deal.

Iran’s stance remains firm, with officials insisting that the US must remove the naval blockade, which Tehran views as a violation of the ceasefire and a key obstacle to resuming negotiations. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and lead negotiator, said late on Wednesday that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be “impossible” while the US and Israel committed “flagrant” breaches of the ceasefire.

As the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, ongoing supply disruptions are keeping Oil prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. This is adding pressure on central banks to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. Markets are increasingly pricing in potential rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB), while expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed)to keep interest rates on hold, a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the US–Iran conflict, with EUR/USD largely at the mercy of US Dollar dynamics.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says their worst-case scenario materialised after the Turkish central bank left policy unchanged, relying on FX intervention and ad hoc liquidity tightening instead of rate hikes. He argues underlying disinflation has stalled, inflation expectations are rising, reserves are depleting, and market skepticism is growing. Commerzbank now forecasts USD/TRY at 55.0 by year-end.

CBT inaction points to renewed Lira pressure

"Our worst-case scenario materialised at yesterday’s Turkish central bank (CBT) meeting: the central bank chose not to tighten monetary policy, relying on the argument that things were steadily improving fundamentally, and that recent geopolitical developments will only act as external disturbances, which should be “watched” for risk factors, but not much else."

"Core inflation momentum remained far too high, and the improvement in the current account had begun to reverse as policy had been eased prematurely. In that context, the war simply exposes an already weakening framework rather than creating a fundamentally new problem."

"This situation is likely to be followed by renewed pressure on the lira and more noticeable rate of depreciation. The annualised rate of depreciation since the beginning of April works out to 47%."

"We expect USD/TRY to reach 55.0 by year-end, compared with market expectations of around 52.0."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Nomura analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the depo rate at 2.00% at the 30 April meeting and to maintain this level through Q4 2027. They stress that policy will stay data-dependent, with particular focus on Brent Oil prices, inflation expectations and wage dynamics following the Iran war shock.

Nomura sees unchanged rates but hawkish risks

"We expect the ECB to leave the depo rate unchanged at 2.00% at its 30 April meeting, and we expect this decision to be unanimous."

"We believe the ECB will want to avoid a knee-jerk reaction to the Iran war and instead wait to assess the evolution of the war and how it has affected economic data. In particular, we believe the ECB will want to assess how the Iran war has affected consumer inflation expectations and firms’ wage expectations over the medium term."

"In our baseline, we expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged through Q4 2027. However, our ECB forecast is based on the assumption that the Middle East conflict will unfold in such a way that the energy price shock from the war in Iran will have a limited meaningful impact on the euro area economy over the medium term."

"We believe that, if the spot price of Brent crude oil were to remain above $95/bbl by the ECB's June meeting, the ECB would raise rates by 25bp in June and then again in September."

"Ultimately, for the ECB to raise rates, we believe the Governing Council will want to see the shock is causing persistently higher inflation, as in 2022, or that the shock meaningfully raises inflation expectations. In order to assess this, we believe sufficient time will be needed, and therefore June is likely to be the first meeting at which the ECB could raise rates if it decided to in response to the Iran war."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Pound (GBP) is marginally softer versus the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most G10 currencies, supported by better‑than‑expected United Kingdom (UK) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. Markets have raised Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations for June and September, though no move is seen at the upcoming meeting. Technically, GBP/USD shows modestly bullish momentum within a 1.3450–1.3550 range.

BoE expectations rise as PMIs surprise

"Fundamental releases were mixed with slightly greater than expected public borrowing and weaker CBI sentiment however the markets appear to be celebrating the better than expected preliminary PMI’s with both manufacturing and services printing above expectations around the 50 threshold to levels indicating modest expansion."

"The data have delivered a meaningful boost to BoE rate expectations, with markets currently pricing 20bpts for June and a cumulative 50bpts by September – but no chance of a hike next Thursday."

"Bullish/neutral – the RSI remains in the mid-50s, offering modestly bullish momentum despite a modest fade from recent peaks in the low 60s."

"The 1.35 level appears to be offering important near-term congestion, around the midpoint of the range from January. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3450 and 1.3550."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• NZD/USD trades lower with a softer New Zealand Dollar against the Greenback.
• Middle East tensions curb risk appetite and support demand for the US Dollar.
• New Zealand inflation and the central bank’s hawkish stance limit the downside.

NZD/USD edges lower on Thursday, trading around 0.5875 at the time of writing, down 0.47% on the day, as risk aversion dominates market sentiment. The pair remains confined within a narrow range seen in recent days, with investors reluctant to take strong directional positions amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran continue to weigh on global markets, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. This dynamic supports the US Dollar (USD), which is also underpinned by higher US Treasury yields and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is moving higher, reflecting renewed interest in the Greenback.

On the macroeconomic front, recent US data present a mixed picture. Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 214K, above expectations, though the release had limited market impact. Meanwhile, economic activity showed signs of improvement, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 52 in April from 50.3 previously, pointing to moderate expansion.

In New Zealand, recent inflation data continues to support the currency. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% YoY in the first quarter, confirming that price pressures remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) target. This reinforces expectations of a sustained restrictive monetary policy stance, limiting the downside for NZD/USD.

According to Rabobank, this backdrop has led markets to price in significant rate hikes over a one-year horizon, although the bank suggests these expectations may be excessive. The institution notes that financial conditions have already tightened considerably, which could limit the central bank’s need to act aggressively.

Rabobank also highlights near-term downside risks for NZD/USD, driven by safe-haven demand for the US Dollar in case of further escalation in the Middle East war. However, the bank expects a moderate recovery in the pair later in the year, supported by the prospect of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).