Forex News
- USD/CHF remains steady above 0.8050 after rallying nearly 0.7% in the last three days.
- Trump's comments suggesting the end of the US-Iran ceasefire have soured market sentiment.
- The Swiss Franc was hit earlier this week as Switzerland's unemployment rose to a nearly five-year high.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) nurses minor losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday but is depreciating nearly 0.7% so far this week. The USD/CHF pair has steadied at the upper range of the 0.8000s, buoyed by investors’ concern about the resumption of hostilities in Iran and markets' cautiousness ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
US President Donald Trump rattled markets earlier on the day, affirming at the NATO summit in Turkey that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is over and that he does not want to deal with Tehran any more, as “they’re scum”.
These comments follow a series of reciprocal attacks earlier on the day and the US revocation of Iran’s authorisation to export crude. The market reaction has been moderate so far, but has provided some support to the Greenback to pick up against most peers, yet within previous ranges.
The Swiss Franc was hit earlier this week, as Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate rose unexpectedly to a nearly five-year high at 3.1% in June, from 3% in May,
Later on the day, the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting are likely to provide some distraction from the geopolitical scenario. Investors will be eager for hints about the bank’s hiking calendar, following the hawkish tone of the Fed’s latest statement, although they will have to sharpen their analytical talents, due to Chairman Kevin Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- The British Pound declines to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar amid risk-off market sentiment.
- US President Trump says that the MoU with Iran is over.
- Investors await the FOMC Minutes of the June policy meeting.
The British Pound (GBP) is down 0.13% to near 1.3340 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as renewed geopolitical risks have diminished the appeal of riskier assets.
At press time, S&P 500 futures are down almost 1% to near 7,430, demonstrating a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 101.15 after recovering early losses.
Risks of the restart of the Middle East war have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet. In the European trade, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the “memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran is over”, adding that he doesn’t want to deal with them.
This came as Tehran continues to prove its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of the global energy supply, with aggression. On Tuesday, Tehran struck commercial ships passing through the chokepoint, stating that were crossing the passage without approval.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get cues regarding why Fed officials decided to abandon forward guidance.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% through year-end, with easing delayed until policymakers gain confidence on inflation. He highlights a narrowing rate differential, stronger Dollar and recent EUR/PLN gains toward 4.29–4.30, arguing that potential rate-cut signals could create further upside for EUR/PLN as the debate intensifies after summer.
Rate cut debate and zloty pressure
"The National Bank of Poland will likely leave rates unchanged at 3.75% today, which is our baseline until the end of the year. More interesting today will be the new NBP forecast and statement and tomorrow's press conference. The easing cycle in Poland was interrupted by turmoil in the Persian Gulf, but policymakers will require greater confidence in a favourable inflation outlook before resuming monetary easing."
"So far, the decline in inflation has largely been driven by normalising oil prices and unexpectedly sharp falls in food prices. Core inflation remains close to 3%. Moreover, fiscal measures aimed at reducing petrol and diesel prices, including lower excise duties and VAT rates, expired at the end of June, pushing fuel prices higher at the start of July."
"The July macroeconomic projection is likely to present a favourable medium-term inflation outlook, but we believe policymakers will need several months to convince themselves that the economy is avoiding lagged inflation effects of energy or supply chain shocks, especially on the core CPI side. While Governor Adam Glapiński may strike a somewhat dovish tone at Thursday’s press conference, the debate over potential rate cuts is only likely to gather momentum after the summer."
"The market is pricing in around 10bp of rate cuts after pricing out several rate hikes in recent weeks. The narrowing rate differential and outperformance of front-end rates vs CEE peers, together with a stronger US dollar, have led to pressure on the zloty, which has underperformed CEE peers in recent weeks."
"We focused a lot on the zloty last week here and mentioned that after reaching 4.290-300 EUR/PLN the central bank will decide on the next direction. That moment is coming now and the question is whether the central bank will indicate a rate cut this year or not, which creates further upside for EUR/PLN in our view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Australian Dollar gives up its earlier gains after Donald Trump says the ceasefire agreement with Iran is over.
- Rising geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets and support the US Dollar.
- Markets now await the Federal Reserve Minutes for fresh clues on the policy outlook.
AUD/USD falls to around 0.6920 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.13% on the day after giving back its earlier gains. The Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under pressure as risk aversion intensifies after United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the memorandum of understanding with Iran aimed at establishing a ceasefire is now "over."
Trump also stated that he no longer wants to negotiate with Iran, while announcing trade measures against Spain and renewing his criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). These remarks weighed on market sentiment and increased demand for safe-haven assets. S&P 500 futures are down more than 0.90%, while the US Dollar (USD) strengthens. Meanwhile, Oil prices advance as investors grow increasingly concerned about potential global supply disruptions.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated after US strikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The collapse of the memorandum has revived concerns about the security of this strategic waterway, through which a significant share of global Oil exports passes. Market participants fear that a broader conflict could keep energy prices elevated and trigger a fresh wave of inflationary pressures.
Earlier in the day, the Australian Dollar had found support after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation back to target while maintaining sustainable employment.
Investors now turn their attention to the June meeting Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), due at 18:00 GMT. Markets will look for further insight into why policymakers chose not to provide explicit forward guidance on interest rates. During the post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that forward guidance was not well suited to the current policy environment.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.24% | -0.15% | 0.21% | -0.21% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.19% | -0.23% | 0.14% | -0.27% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.32% | 0.06% | -0.36% | -0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.09% | -0.41% | -0.03% | -0.46% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.41% | 0.37% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.37% | -0.41% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.36% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.41% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.05% | 0.16% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.25% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Sweden’s strong growth and low inflation contrast with broader G10 dynamics, yet the Krona remains weak. He notes Sweden’s superior debt sustainability and recent data showing robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and minimal inflation. Despite real effective depreciation over two decades, he expects economic outperformance versus the Eurozone to eventually draw capital inflows and influence Swedish Krona (SEK) and inflation.
Krona cheap versus Euro and Pound
"... Krona has fared over the last year – rallying until February 2026 and then falling (EUR/SEK rising) in the period since then."
"In real effective terms, the krona is 6% above its 2023 lows, but it has lost 18% in real terms over the last 20 years."
"This morning’s data – core CPI inflation at 0.4% y/y and monthly GDP up 3.9% y/y, are pretty striking – even if monthly GDP data should be treated with suspicion."
"If all we look at are the inflation numbers, and nominal GDP, then the Krona is likely to remain soft."
"But the country’s economic out-performance relative to the Eurozone will attract capital inflows and will eventually have an impact on inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Canadian Dollar rises against its currency peers as oil prices gain vertically.
- US President Trump says that the MoU with Iran is over.
- Investors await the FOMC Minutes and the Canadian employment data.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades higher against its major currency peers, with USD/CAD sliding 0.26% to near 1.4160 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The CAD jumps as oil prices rally, following remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran is over.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.23% | -0.24% | 0.06% | -0.41% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.20% | -0.26% | 0.04% | -0.42% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.32% | -0.03% | -0.48% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.13% | -0.46% | -0.15% | -0.63% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.26% | 0.32% | 0.46% | 0.30% | -0.18% | 0.17% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.30% | -0.47% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.41% | 0.42% | 0.48% | 0.63% | 0.18% | 0.47% | 0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.29% | -0.17% | 0.16% | -0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
In European trade, the WTI Oil price is up over 2.23% to near $73.6, and is up over 7% so far this week. Higher oil prices improve the appeal of currencies from economies that are net oil exporters.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Canadian Dollar will be the labor market data for June, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that the economy created 10K fresh jobs, significantly lower than 87.8K in May.
Broadly, surging oil prices have increased the appeal of safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 101.00 after recovering early losses.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Market participants will pay close attention to the FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that renewed Middle East tensions are pressuring stocks and bonds while supporting the US Dollar (USD) and Oil. Haddad sees the Dollar Index (DXY) edging higher, with US-G6 two-year yield spreads consistent with DXY slightly above 102.00 and US economic outperformance keeping rate differentials supportive for the Dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes.
DXY supported by yields and risk
"Re-escalation of the Middle East conflict is weighing on stocks and bonds. Crude oil prices surged and USD inched higher. "
"The US completed yesterday a new round of offensive strikes against Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil in response to Iran's attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
"In our view, the dollar index (DXY) can edge higher. US-G6 two-year bond yields are consistent with DXY trading slightly above 102.00 and US economic outperformance should keep rate differentials supportive of the dollar."
"Recall, the FOMC left the target range for the funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting. The policy decision was widely expected, there was no dissent, and the FOMC statement scrapped its implicit easing bias."
"The FOMC June 16-17 meeting minutes will shed more light about the debate behind the hawkish hold (7:00pm London, 2:00pm New York)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/GBP consolidates losses between 0.8635 and 0.8650 on Wednesday.
- Renewed geopolitical concerns and higher Oil prices are acting as headwinds for Euro recovery.
- Technical indicators show a bullish divergence, which suggests that the bearish trend is losing steam.
The Euro (EUR) is trading flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears contained above 0.8535 yet failing to find acceptance above 0.8650 so far. Price action shows a clear bearish trend, although the bullish divergence evident in the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that sellers might be exhausted.
In the fundamental domain, geopolitical tensions are back in the spotlight as US President Donald Trump called the US-Iran ceasefire to an end. Oil prices have bounced up from recent lows, and risk appetite has vanished, which is weighing on any significant Euro recovery.
European Central Bank (ECB) board member José Luis Escrivá affirmed on Wednesday that the bank should keep all options open but that monetary policy would normally “look through one-off energy price shocks.” The Euro barely moved following Escrivá’s comments.
Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence hints at a potential correction
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548, with price action forming what looks like an ending wedge. Momentum indicators in the four-hour chart hint at a potential correction amid the bullish divergence in RSI (14) studies and the marginally positive reading at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
Upside attempts, however, remain shallow so far, with bulls holding below the descending trendline from mid-June highs, now around 0.8565, and the July 2 and 3 highs, in the 0.8275 area. On the downside, initial support emerges at the confluence of the one-year lows, at 0.8533, hit on Tuesday, and the wedge bottom, in the 0.8530 area. Further down, the target is the July 2025 lows around 0.8500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.24% | -0.21% | 0.13% | -0.33% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.20% | -0.26% | 0.09% | -0.37% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.11% | -0.34% | -0.01% | -0.45% | -0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.20% | -0.11% | -0.45% | -0.10% | -0.57% | -0.27% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.34% | 0.45% | 0.35% | -0.13% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.35% | -0.46% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.45% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.46% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.27% | -0.18% | 0.18% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee falls vertically against the US Dollar due to a significant recovery in oil prices.
- Renewed Middle East risks have lifted oil prices.
- Investors await FOMC Minutes for fresh cues over the US interest rate outlook.
The Indian Rupee (INR) plunges against the US Dollar (USD) in India's afternoon trading hours on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 95.65 as the collapse of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States (US) and Iran has lifted oil prices.
In the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 soars over 7% to near 7,200, the highest level seen in two weeks. The contract also gained almost 2.35% on Tuesday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform when oil prices surge.
US strikes in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships
While speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, during the European session on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said, "I think the MoU with Iran is over," adding, "I don't want to deal with Iran. They are sick people."
US President Trump also criticized Iran for attacking commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for almost 20% of the global energy supply, on Tuesday, and stated that Washington retaliated by launching powerful attacks on Iranian military infrastructure. However, Tehran clarified that it attacked those ships for crossing the chokepoint without its approval.
US Dollar ticks down ahead of FOMC Minutes
In the late Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near 101.10. The US Dollar is expected to trade broadly sideways ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Investors will gauge what possible reasons were behind policymakers’ decision to avoid delivering remarks on the monetary policy outlook. In the policy press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that forward-looking remarks are not well-suited in the current policy juncture.
FIIs remain net buyers for three straight trading days
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to increase their stake in the Indian stock market, extending the buying streak for three trading days on Tuesday. In the past three trading days, overseas investors have poured investment worth Rs. 1,991.55 crore. An improvement in sentiment of foreign investors towards Indian equities ahead of the start of the Q1FY27 earnings season underscores their optimism over quarterly earnings growth.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR corrects to near 20-day EMA
USD/INR jumps to near 95.65 at press time. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.05 and the breakout of the Descending Triangle formation.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.8 stays in positive territory without overbought conditions, which suggests ongoing buying interest, though the broader advance is still capped by the longer-term downward resistance trend line projected from 96.9932
On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.00; a break below it would expose the pair to the May 7 low at 94.03. On the topside, a more meaningful resistance level is seen near the original descending trendline start point around 97, where a sustained break would open the way for a stronger bullish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that implied volatility in GBP/USD has barely moved after Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and recontest his Clacton seat, calling the by‑election a sham with potential further votes if he is sanctioned. He stresses that GBP volatility is more tied to incoming PM Andy Burnham’s economic stance, with lower 10‑year Gilt yields, contained fiscal worries and weaker UK inflation supporting the Pound as a top G10 performer.
Politics, yields and Pound performance
"Finally, there has also been limited changes to implied vol level in GBP/USD on the back of the announcement from Nigel Farage that he will stand down as MP for Clacton but then contest the same seat in the by-election. This was to protest the investigations by the parliamentary standards committee into his finances on concerns he breached parliamentary rules."
"This will result in the investigation being suspended but if he wins (or loses) the investigation will restart. None of the other major parties are planning to contest the seat meaning this by-election will turn into something of a sham."
"GBP volatility is more aligned to incoming PM Andy Burnham’s expected economic policies and for now fiscal concerns remain contained. 10-year Gilt yields have retraced more notably lower from the recent peak (15th May) than in the US, Germany and Japan helped by the UK’s weaker inflation pick-up that is also helping to improve investor confidence and support the pound."
"If there is a G10 currency where yield spread continues to play less of a role in driving FX it’s the pound, which is the top performing G10 currency since the Middle East conflict began at the end of February."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
