Forex News
- USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar edges higher after a sharp intraday decline in the previous session.
- Trump said the Iran war could end “very soon” amid mounting economic and political pressures.
- SNB’s Martin reiterated readiness to act against excessive Franc appreciation amid a complex geopolitical backdrop.
USD/CHF edges higher after two days of losses, trading around 0.7780 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) inches higher after a sharp intraday drop in the previous session.
The Greenback depreciated as safe-haven demand reduced on hopes for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could be resolved “very soon,” as he faces mounting economic and political pressure after days of sharp volatility in oil markets.
Traders are awaiting key US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due later this week for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Switzerland’s Consumer Sentiment Index stood at -30 in February 2026, unchanged from January and close to its highest level in nearly a year, slightly below market expectations of -29.
The upside for the USD/CHF pair may remain limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) could strengthen while traders stay cautious about the Middle East conflict. However, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice-President Antoine Martin reiterated the central bank’s readiness to act against excessive Franc appreciation amid a complex geopolitical backdrop.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- USD/CAD lacks any firm intraday direction on Tuesday amid a combination of diverging forces.
- Rising Oil prices underpin the Loonie and cap spot prices, though a firmer USD lends support.
- The overnight breakdown through a short-term trading range support favors bearish traders.
The USD/CAD pair struggles to build on the overnight bounce from the 1.3525 area, or a nearly one-month low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade below the 1.3600 mark, nearly unchanged for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.
Crude Oil prices regain positive traction following Monday's dramatic turnaround from the highest level since July 2022, which is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the global flight to safety benefits the US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through a short-term trading range comes on top of the recent repeated failure to build on the momentum beyond the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains to the downside.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below its signal line and below the zero line, with a shallow negative histogram that suggests persistent but not aggressive selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index around 43 stays below the 50 midpoint, aligning with a downside tilt while avoiding oversold conditions and leaving room for further weakness if sellers press the move.
Initial support emerges at 1.3550, guarding a deeper slide toward 1.3535 and then 1.3500 if bearish momentum extends. On the upside, resistance stands at 1.3645, ahead of the 1.3680 zone that aligns with the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and acts as a pivotal cap for any corrective bounce.
A clear break above that cluster would ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward 1.3720, while failure to reclaim it would keep rallies vulnerable to renewed selling interest back toward the recent lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/JPY softens to near 183.20 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a mildly bullish bias in the near term.
- The first downside target to watch is 182.90; the immediate resistance level emerges at 184.85.
The EUR/JPY cross loses traction to around 183.20 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as escalating conflict in the Middle East boosts safe-haven demand.
On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate path might weigh on the JPY against the EUR. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week signaled a likely prolonged hold on interest rates due to the potential economic impact of the Middle East conflict. While some analysts expected a BoJ March hike, many now anticipate the Japanese Yen central bank to stand pat until at least April or July, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as the cross is well-supported above the rising 100-day EMA. The RSI has retreated toward the 50 line from overbought territory, signalling fading upside momentum rather than a clear trend reversal.
Initial support emerges at 182.90, ahead of the stronger confluence around 181.30 where the 100-day EMA underpins the broader uptrend, with a break there exposing 180.00 as the next downside level. On the topside, resistance sits at 184.85, followed by the recent swing high at 185.70, where proximity to the upper Bollinger Band has previously capped advances and would need to give way to revive a sustained bullish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- WTI attracts fresh buyers and reverses a part of the previous day’s sharp retracement slide.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuel supply concerns, lending support to the commodity.
- The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bulls and backs the case for further appreciation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices regain positive traction following the previous day's dramatic turnaround from the highest level since June 2022 and climb back above the $88.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The ongoing war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about a major disruption to global fuel supplies, lending some support to the black liquid.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reportedly discussing a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves among member countries to stabilize markets. Furthermore, the Trump administration announced a $20 billion reinsurance program aimed at reviving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This, however, does little to ease market worries, suggesting that the path of least resistance for Crude Oil prices is to the upside.
From a technical perspective, Monday's sharp intraday decline stalled ahead of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently pegged near the $78.85 region and should act as a key pivotal point. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator rises toward the zero line after a deep negative phase, with the histogram contracting, which suggests fading bearish momentum and scope for further recovery.
The Relative Strength Index at 45.33 emerges from oversold territory and edges toward the midline, reinforcing improving intraday buying pressure without signaling overbought conditions. Immediate support aligns at $86.85, with a break below exposing the $84.70 area where recent hourly lows concentrate above the rising 200-hour EMA. A deeper slide would bring $83.00 into focus as a stronger downside pivot within the broader uptrend.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at $89.00, followed by $91.00, where prior congestion could slow advances. A sustained move above $91.00 would open the path toward $96.80 as the next upside target within the ongoing recovery phase. Nevertheless, the near-term bias turns cautiously bullish as Crude Oil prices extend well above the 200-hour EMA, which keeps the broader trend pointed higher despite the recent correction from the $112 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 1-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 15,363.05 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 15,293.97 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 179,192.50 per tola from INR 178,385.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 15,363.05 |
10 Grams | 153,629.70 |
Tola | 179,192.50 |
Troy Ounce | 477,857.60 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- US Dollar Index strengthens to around 98.90 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost the DXY.
- Traders will take more cues from the US February CPI inflation data, which is due on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.90 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The DXY edges higher amid uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Tehran will determine when the war ends, not the United States (US). The IRGC warned that if US and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that if Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be hit by the US. Uncertainty and fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East could drive traders toward safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar in the near term.
The war in the Middle East stoked fears of inflation rising in the US, which increases the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates higher for longer. Markets currently see nearly a 95% odds that US rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On the other hand, the downbeat US February employment report put the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot. The February jobs report showed a decline of 92,000 payrolls, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February will take center stage later on Wednesday. The headline CPI is estimated to show an increase of 2.4% YoY in February, while the core CPI is expected to show a rise of 2.5% during the same period. If the report shows hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could underpin the Greenback in the near term.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
China's Trade Balance for January-February, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY1.5 trillion, widening from the previous figure of CNY808.80 billion.
Exports climbed 19.2% YoY in January-February vs. 5.2% in December. The country’s imports rose 17.10% YoY in the same period vs. 4.4% recorded previously.
In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s Trade Surplus expanded more than expected in January-February.
Trade Balance arrived at +213.62B versus +179.60B expected and +114.10B prior.
Exports (YoY): 21.8% vs. 7.1% expected and 6.6% last.
Imports (YoY): 19.8% vs. 6.3% expected and 5.7% previous.
Market reaction to China’s Trade Balance
AUD/USD holds losses around 0.7055 in an immediate reaction to the Chinese trade data. The pair is down 0.29% on the day, as of writing.
This section was published on Tuesday at 00:26 GMT as a preview of China's Trade Balance data.
China’s Trade Balance Overview
The General Administration of Customs will publish its data for February on Tuesday at 03.00 GMT. Trade balance is expected to widen to $179.60B in February, compared to $114.10B in the previous reading. Exports are expected to rise by 7.1% YoY in February, while Imports are projected to increase by 6.3% YoY during the same period.
As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.
How could the China’s Trade Balance affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to China’s Trade Balance data. The pair edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid uncertainty from the Iran war.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the February 26 high of 0.7136. The next resistance level emerges at the February 12 high of 0.7147, en route to the 0.7200 round figure.
On the downside, the 0.7000 psychological level will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the March 9 low of 0.6956, followed by the January 26 low of 0.6906.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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