Forex News
- The Pound is ticking higher, but remains capped below 211.60 resistance.
- The Yen struggles amid a mild risk appetite and thin trading volumes.
- UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm that business activity accelerated in December.
The Sterling has opened the year in a mild bullish trend against the Japanese Yen, despite the overall New Year’s market lull, but remains capped below the top of the last two weeks’ range, at the 211.50 area.
The Yen is on its back foot on Friday amid a moderate market sentiment, with trading volumes at low levels as markets in China and Japan remain closed for the New Year festivities.
In the UK, the final S&P Manufacturing PMI release is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity accelerated to 51.2 in December from 50.2 in November. The release, however, will have a limited impact on the Pound, unless there is a significant revision of the preliminary estimations.
Technical analysis: Intraday charts show a bearish divergence
The GBP/JPY trades at 211.17, after an unsuccessful attempt to break the 211.50 area earlier on the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.50, highlighting a modestly bullish tone, añthough a bearish divergence with price action suggests the pòsibility of a bearish reversal.
Immediate support remains at the area between the trendline resistance, around 210.15, and the December 24 low, at 210.05A clear break of these levels is likely to increase pressure towards the mid-December lows, around 208.90.
Bulls, on the contrary, need to break long-term highs, at 211.59 (December 22 high). Above here, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the December 15-22 rally, at 212.75, and the 161.8% extension of the same cycle, at 214.38, emerge as the next potential targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.35% | -0.20% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.40% | -0.19% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.10% | -0.32% | -0.10% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.48% | -0.27% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.17% | -0.22% | -0.06% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.40% | 0.32% | 0.48% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.10% | 0.27% | 0.06% | -0.21% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.01% | -0.16% | -0.40% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CAD may target a five-month low of 1.3642.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 35.12, below the midline, signals weak momentum.
- The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.3715.
USD/CAD posts little losses, trading around 1.3700 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows an upside breakout above a bullish descending wedge pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.12, below the midline, reflects weak momentum after an uptick from sub-30 readings.
The USD/CAD pair remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and marginally under the nine-day EMA, keeping bears in charge. Both averages slope lower, with the short-term line flattening near the spot price.
The USD/CAD pair reaches fresh five-month low of 1.3642 on December 26. Further declines would drag the pair within the wedge and put downward pressure on the pair to test the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 1.3550, followed by 1.3539, the lowest level since October 2024.
On the upside, the USD/CAD pair may test its immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA at 1.3715. A break above the short-term average would lead the pair to approach the 50-day EMA at 1.3848. Further advances above the medium-term average would improve the price momentum and support the pair to target the four-week high of 1.4014, reached on December 2.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.17% | -0.30% | -0.16% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.12% | -0.32% | -0.13% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.11% | -0.27% | -0.07% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.44% | -0.24% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.27% | 0.44% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.02% | -0.19% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- WTI price rises on potential supply disruptions amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Russia and Ukraine traded accusations over civilian attacks on New Year’s Day.
- The US Treasury sanctioned four Oil tankers for helping Venezuela’s Maduro government evade restrictions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price climbs to near $57.70 during the European hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices edge higher on potential supply concerns stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions.
Kyiv has stepped up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in recent months to disrupt Moscow’s military financing. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine exchanged accusations over civilian attacks on New Year’s Day, despite intensive United States (US)-led talks under President Donald Trump to end the nearly four-year conflict.
The US Treasury Department on Wednesday sanctioned the Panama-flagged Nord Star, Guinea-flagged Lunar Tide, and Hong Kong-flagged Della for allegedly transporting Venezuelan crude or fuel this year to Asia and the Caribbean, aiding President Maduro’s government in evading sanctions, including four tankers linked to a so-called ‘shadow fleet,’ according to Reuters.
The measures have prevented sanctioned vessels from entering or leaving Venezuela, forcing the state Oil company PDVSA to adopt extreme steps to avoid refinery shutdowns as residual fuel inventories build up.
US Crude Oil stockpiles fell by 1.934 million barrels last week, the largest draw since mid-November and well above expectations for a 0.9 million-barrel decline, reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Traders are looking forward for virtual meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) due on Sunday, with expectations that the group will uphold its November decision to pause further production increases.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY gains ground to near 157.00 in Friday’s early European session.
- The cautious pace of BoJ’s monetary tightening undermines the Japanese Yen, but intervention fears might cap its downside.
- Traders await the US employment data next week to gauge the path of interest rates.
The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day around 157.00 during the early European session on Friday. The cautious pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary tightening weighs on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Greenback. Traders will take more cues from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December, which is due next week.
The BoJ raised its key interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% in December, its second hike of the year, to help curb inflation. However, the cautious pace of tightening and the lack of a clear timeline for future hikes have disappointed markets, dragging the JPY lower and acting as a tailwind for the pair.
Nonetheless, some intervention from Japanese authorities might help limit the JPY’s losses. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama emphasized the official is monitoring foreign exchange (FX) movements with a "high sense of urgency" and is prepared to take "appropriate action" against excessive and one-sided moves.
The prospect of a US interest rate cut this year and renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence could exert some selling pressure on the USD. US President Donald Trump said that he expects the next Fed Chairman to keep interest rates low and never “disagree” with him. Traders are pricing in two rate reductions in the year compared to one predicted by a divided Fed.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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