Forex News
- US Dollar Index edges lower to around 101.15 in Friday’s early European session.
- Higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish Fed comments strengthened expectations for further tightening.
- The first upside target to watch is 101.35; the key support level is located at 100.00.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 101.15 in the early European trading hours on Friday. The DXY declines on the day but heads for the second week of gain amid surging US Treasury bond yields and US rate hike bets. Traders await the Fedspeak later in the day for fresh impetus.
The 30-year US Treasury bond yield reached a high of 5.502%, a level not seen since June 2004 in the previous session, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.225%, a level not reached since June 2007. Rising Treasury yields and mounting bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes kept the greenback near two-month highs.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 67.5% chance of a Fed October benchmark rate hike, up from 55.4% a week earlier and 11% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Many Fed officials delivered hawkish remarks this week, with Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson saying, "Some modest further tightening may be warranted.” Additionally, New York Fed President John Williams stated that "another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year.”
"Whilst the dollar should get a bid from higher yields, there are still ongoing lingering concerns around the US fiscal position, the unpredictability of US policy making," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.
Dollar strength drives US yields higher as China-US trade truce extended
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman emphasize that “the same forces lifting USD are driving Treasury yields higher and contributing to the global bond market selloff,” with US 10-year Treasury yields having “surged to 5.14%, the highest level since July 2007.” They note that the move has been underpinned in part by inflation expectations, as “10-year breakeven inflation rates edged up a bit on firmer crude oil prices.”
On the geopolitical front, BBH points to the “one-day summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump” as a key focus for markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “confirmed yesterday that both countries agreed to extend their trade war truce, which was set to expire on November 10, until January 10.” However, BBH also flags lingering uncertainty, with Bessent having “questioned whether a bigger trade deal with China can be done.”
Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index maintains a contructive tone amid overbought condition
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of Dollar Index Spot is bullish as price holds above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) middle Bollinger band and the 100-day moving average, reinforcing a constructive trend backdrop. However, the move is stretched, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in overbought territory near 70.5, suggesting upside momentum remains strong but vulnerable to a cooling phase.
On the topside, the immediate resistance level is seen at the upper boundary Bollinger band near 101.35, where buyers could begin to hesitate. Any follow-through buying above the mentioned level could pave the way to June 24 high of 101.80, en route to the 102.00 psychological level.
On the flip side, the initial support level aligns with the 100-day moving average at 100.00, followed by the 20-day SMA middle Bollinger band at 99.80. A deeper structural floor emerging around the September 9 low of 98.60 and the lower Bollinger band at 98.22.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- USD/JPY falls as the Japanese Yen gains support, with markets on high alert for Japanese intervention.
- Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama affirmed Thursday that the joint US-Japan foreign exchange principles remain in effect.
- US 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.502%, the highest since 2004, while 10-year yields reached 5.225%, the highest since 2007.
USD/JPY halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 158.10 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers support. Market participants are remaining on high alert, anticipating potential market intervention by Japanese authorities.
Reinforcing these expectations, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the foreign exchange principles established after the coordinated intervention between Japan and the United States remain in effect.
Japan's 10-year government bond (JGB) yield retreated after briefly hitting a 30-year high of 3.11% earlier in the session. The initial spike was driven by a sharp overnight surge in US Treasury yields.
On Thursday, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a high of 5.502%, its highest mark since June 2004, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.225%, touching a level not recorded since June 2007.
However, the USD/JPY pair may rebound as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, driven primarily by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials. Elevated oil prices and robust US economic data have stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed may tighten its monetary policy even further.
Reflecting this shift, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the likelihood of an October benchmark rate hike has jumped to nearly 67.5%, marking a significant increase from 55.4% a week prior and just 11% a month ago.
Dollar seen underperforming as Fed independence concerns grow
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the Dollar’s support is likely to prove fragile as policy expectations shift. They warn that “the dollar is likely to face pressure not only from a downward revision of US rate expectations, but also from renewed concerns that Fed independence is being undermined by the White House.” In their view, this combination of softer rate expectations and political noise around the Fed means “we therefore expect the dollar to come under greater pressure than the euro in the end, despite likely downward revisions to rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.”
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- The Australian Dollar attracts slight bids near 0.7000 against the US Dollar.
- The RBA is almost certain to hike interest rates on Tuesday.
- Traders price in two more Fed interest rate hikes this year.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after a vertical sell-off in the last two trading days. In the European trade, the Aussie pair is slightly higher to near 0.7020 after finding cushion at around 0.7000.
AUD/USD has underperformed in past few weeks as traders have become increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate hikes this year.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.88% | 1.23% | 0.77% | 1.14% | 1.30% | 1.00% | 0.75% | |
| EUR | -0.88% | 0.36% | -0.07% | 0.26% | 0.42% | 0.12% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -1.23% | -0.36% | -0.54% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.49% | |
| JPY | -0.77% | 0.07% | 0.54% | 0.40% | 0.51% | 0.24% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -1.14% | -0.26% | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.22% | -0.16% | -0.38% | |
| AUD | -1.30% | -0.42% | -0.06% | -0.51% | -0.22% | -0.30% | -0.61% | |
| NZD | -1.00% | -0.12% | 0.21% | -0.24% | 0.16% | 0.30% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.75% | 0.13% | 0.49% | 0.01% | 0.38% | 0.61% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows an almost 58% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in both remaining policy meetings this year.
Going forward, the next major trigger for the Aussie pair is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday.
Market experts believe that the odds of the RBA hiking interest rates at the policy meeting next week have increased due to upbeat Australian job data for August released on Thursday.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that with the latest domestic data firming expectations for further policy tightening. According to BBH, “Australia’s August labor force report reinforced the case for a 25bps RBA hike to 4.60% next week (90% priced-in),” after the economy “added more jobs than expected (actual: +39.5k, consensus: +20k, prior: -15.9k) driven by part-time employment (+45.8k vs. -30.8k in July).”
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7023, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7108 and a series of Fibonacci retracements acting as overhead supply. The pair has slipped back below the 50.0% retracement at 0.7052 and the 38.2% level at 0.7096, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 34.9 hints at building downside momentum rather than outright oversold exhaustion.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7008, ahead of the 78.6% level at 0.6945 and the 100% retracement base at 0.6865. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50.0% retracement at 0.7052, followed by the 38.2% level at 0.7096, the 20-period EMA at 0.7108, and the 23.6% retracement at 0.7151, with the 0.7240 Fibonacci anchor marking a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery attempt.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 29, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: 4.35%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that EUR/USD realized 3-month volatility has dropped to near five-year lows. He links part of the calm to highly correlated central bank rate expectations driven partly by oil prices, but notes this cannot fully explain the move. Importantly, implied volatility now stands more than one percentage point above historical volatility, suggesting markets expect EUR/USD volatility to rise.
Low realized, higher implied volatility
"And despite all this, the realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate over the past three months fell yesterday to 4.53%, it's near the lowest level in nearly five years. Not only that. Over the past nearly 20 years (Bloomberg data goes back to May 31, 2007), there have been only three instances in which the EUR/USD realized 3-month volatility was even lower than it is currently. It has been lower than yesterday’s level on only 2.2% of trading days."
"And a comparison with other G10 currencies also shows that, for the most part, a lower exchange rate volatility against the euro has occurred in those currencies where central bank expectations this year exhibit a higher correlation than last year."
"So there appears to be yet another factor keeping volatility low this year. While the market’s focus on oil prices seems to play a role, it cannot fully explain the current very low volatility."
"One thing, however, still stands out: Normally, historical 3-month volatility and expected volatility for the next 3 months (as implied by option prices) move largely in tandem. Over the past nearly 20 years, 80% of the movements in implied volatility can be explained by historical volatility. At the moment, however, a certain divergence is evident. Historical volatility is more than one percentage point lower than implied volatility. "
"Considering the low overall level, the difference between the two volatility indicators has been greater on only about 4% of trading days over the past nearly 20 years. So even though historical volatility has been low over the past three months, the market expects it to rise soon."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD treads water below $64.00, on track for a 3.7% weekly decline.
- High US Treasury yields and rising Fed tightening bets have crushed precious metals this week.
- Fed's Paulson and Williams hint at a further interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading sideways on Friday, with upside attempts capped below $64.00, on track for a 3.7% weekly decline, and with bears looking at the bottom of the monthly trading range, at $62.30. Precious metals have struggled this week with US Treasury yields surging across the curve, and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials calling for further interest rate hikes in the coming months.
A mix of strong US business activity, rising inflationary pressures amid higher Oil prices, and concerns about the ballooning US government debt has pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs this week, posing a heavy weight on the yieldless precious metals.
Beyond that, Fed policymakers delivered a hawkish message this week, endorsing market hopes of further rate hikes over the coming months. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson affirmed earlier on Friday that “modest” rate moves are likely to be needed to bring inflation to target, only a few hours after the New York Fed President John Williams affirmed that “it is sensible to expect another rate increase by year-end.”
Technical Analysis: Support at the $62.30 area has come into view
XAG/USD trades at $63.81, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it sits at a short distance from the bottom of the monthly trading range, in the area between $62.20 and $62.30. Momentum indicators in the daily chart reinforce the bearish view, as the Relative Strength Index (14) stays in neutral-to-soft territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative values, hinting that downside pressure prevails.
A break of the mentioned $62-20--$62.30 area (August 10, September 16 lows) would activate a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, adding pressure towards the August 6 low at $60.87 and the August 5 low at the $59.35 area.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the $64.60 area (September 22 low) ahead of the range top, just above $68.00, which has capped upside attempts several times this month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.89% | 1.23% | 0.77% | 1.14% | 1.30% | 1.00% | 0.75% | |
| EUR | -0.89% | 0.36% | -0.07% | 0.25% | 0.42% | 0.12% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -1.23% | -0.36% | -0.54% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.24% | -0.49% | |
| JPY | -0.77% | 0.07% | 0.54% | 0.40% | 0.51% | 0.24% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -1.14% | -0.25% | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.22% | -0.16% | -0.38% | |
| AUD | -1.30% | -0.42% | -0.06% | -0.51% | -0.22% | -0.30% | -0.61% | |
| NZD | -1.00% | -0.12% | 0.24% | -0.24% | 0.16% | 0.30% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.75% | 0.13% | 0.49% | 0.01% | 0.38% | 0.61% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CAD holds positive ground near 1.4150 in Friday’s early European session.
- Growing bets that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer to combat inflation underpin the US Dollar.
- Iran’s President said Tehran wants US deal before midterm elections.
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to around 1.4150 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Mounting bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack are scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on Thursday that additional tightening could be needed if the economy continues to evolve as expected. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams also suggested tighter monetary policy is coming.
These hawkish remarks came a week after the US central bank decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 67.5% probability of an October benchmark rate hike, up from 55.4% a week earlier and 11% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as markets weighed the possibility of a truce between the US and Iran against the bombing of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that Iran wants Washington to return to the June ceasefire memorandum before the November midterm elections. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and low crude oil prices generally have a negative impact on the CAD.
Canadian Dollar steady as Gulf tensions offset by crude rebound and yield spread headwinds
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the Canadian Dollar is "little changed on the session as markets balance a clear riskoff undertone to stocks against the bounce in crude oil." They highlight that Gulf-area tensions "remain clear, despite US claims that Iran is keen to make deal," with reports indicating "one Iranian official threatened to expand the conflict to the Indian Ocean if the country was attacked again." At the same time, they point out that WTI is "4.5% above yesterday’s low," offering some support to the currency.
However, Scotiabank continues to stress that "wide US/Canada front-end spreads remain the biggest headwind for the CAD, with the 2Y spread nearing 150bps, the widest since early 2025." The strategists also flag upcoming domestic data, noting that "Canadian Retail Sales are out at 8.30ET," which could provide a fresh catalyst for USD/CAD trading.
Fed’s Paulson flags risk of further rate hikes as inflation stays stubborn
Fed’s Paulson delivers a notably hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.1/10, stronger relative to the historical average of 7/10 and consistent with a firm inflation-fighting stance. The emphasis that the US central bank “may need to raise interest rates again,” that the September hike improved the policy posture, and that underlying inflation “remains stubbornly high” despite a resilient economy and stable labor market, underscores a bias toward additional tightening if data fail to show clearer disinflation. Paulson’s reference to AI buildout as a source of inflation pressures adds a structural dimension to the hawkish tone, reinforcing the risk that the policy peak may not yet be fully secure.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 148.18, firmly in hawkish territory according to the FXS Fed Sentiment Index framework. The steady, high reading signals that Paulson’s above-baseline hawkish rhetoric is broadly in line with prevailing Fed communication tracked by the FXS Speechtracker, rather than marking a fresh hawkish escalation.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD
In the daily chart, USD/CAD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and well above the Bollinger Bands’ lower band, keeping the broader uptrend intact. However, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index at 72.8 signals overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum may be stretched as spot approaches the upper Bollinger band.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band at 1.3930 only in a corrective scenario, while the more relevant barrier is the upper Bollinger band at 1.4160, where buyers could begin to struggle. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3965, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the Bollinger lower band near 1.3700, where any extended pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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