Forex News
- USD/JPY hits session lows below 158.00 after Wednesday's rejection from 159.00
- Lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments by Fed policymakers have sent the US Dollar tumbling.
- The technical picture shows bullish momentum fading, with bears looking at the 157.50 support area.
The US Dollar (USD) trades lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday as US Treasury yields extend their reversal from multi-decade highs after the Federal Reserve (Fed) cooled hopes of back-to-back interest rate hikes. The USD/JPY pair trades at 158.00 with bears looking at the bottom of the last two weeks’ trading range, at the 157.50 area.
US Treasury yields climbed following hot US CPI figures Wednesday to retreat sharply after Fed officials dampened market expectations of an October rate hike. The yield of the benchmark 10-year note has dropped by more than 30 basis points from Wednesday's highs, hitting three-week lows at 5.09%, pushing the US Dollar lower across the board.
In Japan, macroeconomic data has been mixed, with Machinery Orders increasing beyond expectations in August, although the country’s Industrial Production for the same month was revised lower.
Also on Thursday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Koeda joined the recent chorus of hawkish BoJ policymakers and called for further rate hikes, amid increasing inflationary risks, although the impact on the Yen was limited.
Technical Analysis: Support at 157.50 comes under pressure as bullish momentum fades
The USD/JPY trades at 157.91, with the near-term bias still bullish but with indicators showing a growing bearish momentum after another rejection at the 159.00 area on Wednesday. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has dipped below the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly negative, hinting at consolidation rather than outright reversal for now.
Bears should confirm below the 157.50 area, which has capped downside attempts several times over the last two weeks, to increase pressure towards the late September lows at 156.36. A break of that level would highlight a double top at 159.00 and expose the September 17 low, near 155.35.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the mentioned 159.00 area (September 24, October 14 lows), followed by the 160.00 psychological area and the September 2 high near 160.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.60% | -0.53% | -0.38% | -0.27% | 0.60% | -0.42% | -0.76% | |
| EUR | 0.60% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.31% | 1.23% | 0.18% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 1.13% | 0.09% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.38% | -0.21% | -0.15% | 0.10% | 1.01% | -0.05% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.10% | 0.89% | -0.13% | -0.49% | |
| AUD | -0.60% | -1.23% | -1.13% | -1.01% | -0.89% | -1.02% | -1.37% | |
| NZD | 0.42% | -0.18% | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 1.02% | -0.36% | |
| CHF | 0.76% | 0.17% | 0.25% | 0.39% | 0.49% | 1.37% | 0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- Silver price rebounds to near $56.60 as the US Dollar and US Treasury Yields come under pressure.
- Hot US CPI report for September fails to lift hawkish Fed expectations.
- Investors await the US PPI data for September releasing at 12:30 GMT.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.5% to near $56.50 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal holds ground near $55.40 as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields are under pressure, with financial markets remaining confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.4% to near 102.10 even after recovering some of its early losses. Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
10-year US Treasury Yields have slid to near 5.09%, the lowest level seen in three weeks. Theoretically, a decline in US bond yields results in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Why Fed prospects for October matters now?
On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September showed that price pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace; however, they failed to uplift hawkish Fed expectations for the October meeting.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this meeting have increased marginally to 27% from 22% seen before the data release.
Hawkish Fed prospects for the October meeting were already lower as several policymakers had indicated no urgency for interest rate hikes. However, financial markets were awaiting the US inflation report, assuming that it might influence interest rate expectations.
US PPI data in focus
Meanwhile, investors shift their focus to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US PPI will likely show that the headline inflation at the producer level dropped to 5.3% YoY from the previous reading of 5.4%.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $56.63, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds firmly below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $60.73. The EMA’s position overhead suggests that recent rebounds are being capped by prevailing supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.75 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but starting to look stretched.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $60.73 is the immediate resistance to beat before any more meaningful recovery can develop. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 appears to be the crucial support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights slightly higher final Polish inflation and unchanged core forecasts, with most Monetary Policy Committee members signalling that December is the earliest for rate-hike discussions. He argues delayed National Bank of Poland tightening, a firmer Dollar and record gas prices leave the Zloty vulnerable, and reiterates expectations for EUR/PLN to return to the 4.380–4.400 range.
Dovish NBP stance weighs on Zloty
"Final Polish inflation was revised slightly higher to 4.1% from the 4.0% September flash estimate. Our core inflation forecast is unchanged at 3.1%, down from 3.3%, with today’s release expected to confirm the figure."
"Since the October National Bank of Poland meeting, nearly all Monetary Policy Committee members have spoken, offering mixed signals. Most have sounded somewhat more hawkish than Governor Adam Glapinski, but the majority see December – not November – as the earliest for discussing a rate hike."
"All agree that the new forecast and pace of disinflation next year will be decisive. Detailed interviews have also focused on government measures to cap household fuel prices. Approved only through year-end, these measures reduce headline inflation by 0.6-0.7pp."
"We can assume these measures can be extended into Q1 if needed, with the Ministry of Finance indicating that a decision will come in December. This should allow the NBP to delay tightening further. Our economists still expect hikes to begin in Q1 next year, with 50bp of tightening in total."
"Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US core CPI halted gains in CEE currencies and pushed sentiment back into risk-off mode. Our bearish CEE FX view remains unchanged: a firmer US dollar and record-high gas prices will make it difficult for regional currencies to sustain gains."
"The PLN looks particularly vulnerable given the NBP’s dovish stance relative to market pricing. We therefore continue to expect EUR/PLN to return to the 4.380-4.400 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Karahan claims a faster Lira depreciation is being allowed to avoid a sharper future devaluation. Ghose argues that USD/TRY remains on a mechanically managed, roughly 20% annualised depreciation path, which is still too slow versus 30–35% inflation. With CBRT cutting rates, he warns that underlying inflation and external imbalances keep long-term devaluation risks for the Lira intact.
Rate cuts and FX management raise risks
"Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor, Fatih Karahan, reportedly told investors yesterday that CBRT is allowing the lira to depreciate more quickly in order to prevent the need for a sharper future devaluation. Karahan argued that weaker economic activity has reduced inflation pass-through, making this an opportune time to adjust the currency’s path. There are several problems with this argument:"
"We do not detect a discernible acceleration in the pace of depreciation in recent days or weeks. But, the lira has been on a steady, rapid depreciation path in any case, annualising to around 20% in recent months."
"This straight-line trajectory has been maintained with the help of FX intervention by the central bank and state-owned banks, which is well known and recognised by the FX market. We have often cited the mechanical-looking intraday trading pattern of USD/TRY to argue that the lira is not a free-floating exchange rate in any conventional sense. The familiar pattern remains one of flat segments followed by breaches of successive levels of defence."
"CBRT has entered into a rate-cutting cycle. This may now be sold as a tactically smart move, which consciously targets ‘healthy’ lira depreciation. But rate cuts alongside managed depreciation do not resolve the underlying inflation and balance of payments problems. Inflation cooled for only one month, in a globally pro-inflationary environment. CBRT’s rate cuts only increase risks for the lira."
"Nevertheless, a 20% annualised depreciation rate still means that Turkey’s real exchange rate has been appreciating, given inflation in the 30%-35% region. In other words, nominal depreciation is not rapid enough to eliminate real appreciation or necessarily move the exchange rate towards fair-value. For this reason, it is difficult to agree with CBRT’s assessment that the present currency path is avoiding the risk of a future devaluation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD comes under intense selling pressure as dismal Aussie jobs data dampens RBA hike bets.
- Hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks limit the USD slide, further weighing on spot prices.
- Traders now look to the US PPI for a fresh impetus ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday.
The AUD/USD pair attracts heavy selling on Thursday following the disappointing release of Australian jobs data, retreating further from levels beyond the 0.7000 psychological mark, or a two-week high, touched the previous day. Spot prices extend the intraday descent through the early European session and weaken further below mid-0.6900s, hitting a one-week low in the last hour.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the number of employed people declined by 39.3K in September, reversing the previous month's rise of 39.5K and missing estimates of a 20K increase by a big margin. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.7% from 4.6% in August, dampening hopes for another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This is seen as a key factor undermining the Australian Dollar (AUD) and exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, recovers slightly from a one-week low, touched earlier this Thursday, stalling the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since April 2025, touched in reaction to the hot US consumer inflation figures. Investors seem convinced that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. Apart from this, geopolitical uncertainties counter a slump in US bond yields and support the USD, contributing to the AUD/USD pair's decline.
Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), later during the early North American session. This, along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday, will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Nevertheless, the aforementioned bearish fundamental backdrop backs the case for a further depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
Against the backdrop of the previous day's failed attempted to build on momentum beyond the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Thursday's breakdown below the rising support line validates the negative outlook. The AUD/USD pair seems vulnerable to retest the structural anchor of the prior uptrend near 0.6905, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline if selling pressure extends.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the former trend-line support turned barrier around 0.6961, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 0.6998, which reinforces the cap on any rebound attempts.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.47% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -0.16% | 0.56% | -0.29% | -0.53% | |
| EUR | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 1.06% | 0.14% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.37% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.94% | 0.07% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | -0.23% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.82% | -0.08% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.32% | -0.23% | -0.06% | 0.73% | -0.12% | -0.36% | |
| AUD | -0.56% | -1.06% | -0.94% | -0.82% | -0.73% | -0.85% | -1.10% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | -0.14% | -0.07% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.85% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | 0.53% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.36% | 1.10% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Japanese Yen has benefited from risk-off trading and hawkish Bank of Japan commentary, pushing USD/JPY back below 158.00. BoJ board member Junko Koeda signalled upside risks to prices and a neutral rate well above 1%, while MUFG still expects no move at the October meeting but another hike by December, supporting the Yen outlook.
Risk-off and BoJ rhetoric lift Yen
"The yen has benefitted from more risk-off trading conditions overnight resulting in USD/JPY dropping back below the 158.00-level although its performance has been more mixed against non-USD currencies."
"The stronger yen has also been encouraged by encouraged by hawkish comments from BoJ board member Junko Koeda."
"In a speech to local leaders in Kumamoto overnight, she stated “given that there are considerable upside risks to prices in addition to continued accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate”."
"Junko Koeda stated that she believes the level of the neutral interest rate is considerably above 1%” which indicates that she still sees room for further rate hikes with the current policy rate at 1.25%."
"We still expect the BoJ to leave rates on hold this month but hike again before the end of this year in December providing more support for the yen."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 15:
The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure on Thursday and gives back the gains it posted following the hot inflation prints, as Treasury bond yields decline sharply. Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, alongside September Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail sales figures.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.50% | -0.41% | -0.22% | -0.18% | 0.45% | -0.34% | -0.57% | |
| EUR | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.98% | 0.13% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.41% | -0.08% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.87% | 0.05% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | -0.27% | -0.19% | 0.02% | 0.68% | -0.16% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.18% | -0.29% | -0.23% | -0.02% | 0.64% | -0.16% | -0.39% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.98% | -0.87% | -0.68% | -0.64% | -0.81% | -1.04% | |
| NZD | 0.34% | -0.13% | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.81% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.57% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.37% | 0.39% | 1.04% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August. This print came in above the market expectation of 3.6%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile foor and energy prices, rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, compared ao analysts' estimate for an increase of 0.2%. With the CME FedWatch Tool's probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October climbing toward 40% with the initial reaction to these data, the USD Index rallied and touched it highest level since April 2025 near 103.00.
Analysts at OCBC note that September US CPI "gave the USD a lift as sticky inflation revived fears of further Fed tightening," with "core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% consensus and matching August, while headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% YoY." They argue that this "upside surprise keeps the 27-28 October meeting live," although, "given recent Fed guidance, we continue to expect a pause in October, followed by another hike in December."
During the early trading hours of the Asian session, Bloomberg reported that China seems to be moving US securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, masking its role in financing US deficits. Bloomberg's report further added that Canada’s holdings of US debt securities have grown to nearly $600 billion of Treasuries and bonds despite a tariff war, indicating that China has shifted its holdings to Canada. The benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield declines sharply following this headline and was last seen losing nearly 3% on the day at around 5.1%, while the USD Index was down 0.45% at 102.05.
The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in September, while Employment Change was -39.2K in this period, worse than the market expectation of -20K. Despite the renewed USD weakness, AUD/USD remains under bearish pressure on disappointing employment data and trades below 0.6950 in the European morning on Thursday, losing about 0.4% on the day.
The UK's Office for National Statistics reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August. This print followed the 0.4% expansion reported in July and came in better the market forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production increased by 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively, on a monthly basis. GBP/USD gathers bullish momentum and rises 0.5% on the day to trade at around 1.3250 in the early European session.
After coming in within a touching distance of 1.1100 and setting a fresh 17-month low on Wednesday, EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1200 early Thursday, up more than 0.5% on the day.
Gold benefits from gallinf US Treasury bond yields and gains about 1% on the day to trades ner $4,150.
USD/JPY declined to a fresh weekly low at 157.58 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday before staging a rebound. At the time of press, the pair was trading at 158.00, still losing 0.2% on the day. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board Member Junko Koeda said on Thursday that monetary conditions have remained accommodative in Japan and added that they need to adjust the policu to contain upside inflation risks.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- USD/CHF returns to levels above 0.8300 after a nearly 1.4% selloff from Wednesday's highs.
- US CPI beat expectations, but dovish comments from Fed officials sent the US Dollar tumbling.
- Soft Swiss Producer and Import Prices have failed to support the CHF.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is giving back gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/CHF pair has returned to levels just above 0.8300, after a nearly 1.4% sell-off to 0.8280 lows on Wednesday following dovish comments from Fed officials, while, in Switzerland, soft Producer and Import Prices Index figures have failed to support the CHF.
Data from the Federal Statistics Office released on Thursday revealed that Swiss Producer and Import Prices growth slowed down to 0.3% in September, from 0.7% in August, below the 0.5%expected by the market. Year-over-year, producer prices contracted 0.2%, following a 0.7% decline in the previous month.
These figures add to evidence of the tame inflationary pressures in the Swiss economy, which have allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to maintain its benchmark interest rate at the 0% level amid a global tightening cycle. This has led to a monetary policy divergence with most of the world’s major central banks, weighing heavily on the CHF, which has depreciated 3.5% against the US Dollar in two-and-a-half months.
Fed officials play down hopes of back-to-back rate hikes
The US Dollar, on the other hand, was hit on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials hammered investors’ hopes of back-to-back interest rate hikes, following hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
The Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Michelle Bowman, suggested that the bank might need more time to assess the impact of September’s rate hike before raising interest rates further. In a similar tone, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that more rate hikes are likely needed but that “the timing of those adjustments to me is something we’re still deliberating."
Previously, US CPI data confirmed that the high energy prices are pushing consumer inflation to levels well above the central bank’s 2% target. Later on Thursday, the market will be looking at the Producer Price Index (PPI) release for a more accurate picture of inflationary trends.
Economic Indicator
Producer and Import Prices (MoM)
The Producer and Import Prices is an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation. High inflationary pressure may anticipate interest rates hike by the SNB. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the CHF.
Read more.Last release: Thu Oct 15, 2026 06:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.3%
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 0.7%
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
Economic Indicator
Producer and Import Prices (YoY)
The Producer and Import Prices is an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation. High inflationary pressure may anticipate interest rates hike by the SNB. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the CHF.
Read more.Last release: Thu Oct 15, 2026 06:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.2%
Consensus: -
Previous: -0.7%
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
OCBC Bank’s Christopher Wong argues that recent RBI measures and the governor’s willingness to act further have curbed speculative activity and supported the Indian Rupee. However, stronger US Dollar, elevated Oil prices and external headwinds are seen limiting gains, with technicals pointing to moderating downside in USDINR and key support at 94.70 and 94.20 and resistance around 95.60 and 96.
RBI action vs USD and Oil headwinds
"USD/INR briefly traded below 95 before erasing losses into the close. Firmer USD and oil played a role in disrupting INR’s recovery momentum. Nevertheless, the speed and breadth of RBI’s recent measures reflected a strong sense of urgency to curb speculative activity and stabilise the currency."
"Governor Malhotra’s willingness to consider further measures should also make markets more cautious about building fresh short-INR positions."
"We may still see some room for near-term INR recovery, although the external environment remains challenging. Overnight, stronger-than-expected US CPI lifted the USD and US Treasury yields, while elevated oil prices remain a drag on India’s external balance. These developments reinforced our view that while regulatory measures can contain speculative pressures and offer near-term support, they cannot fully insulate INR from external headwinds."
"A more sustained recovery would likely require some easing in oil prices and USD strength."
"Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Lingering bearish pressure remains on the cross but moderating RSI and price action overnight cautioned for a moderation in the pace of decline for the pair, especially after a near 2% drop in 4 sessions. Support at 94.70 levels (50% fibo retracement of Apr low to Oct high, recent low) and 94.20 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 95.60 levels (50, 100 DMAs), 96 levels (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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