Forex News
The risk for Pound Sterling (GBP) remains on the upside; it is unclear whether momentum is strong enough to break above 1.3570, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Risk for GBP remains on the upside
24-HOUR VIEW: "Following GBP’s price action two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: 'There has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect range-trading today, most likely between 1.3400 and 1.3460'. GBP subsequently dipped to a low of 1.3402 before staging a surprisingly sharp rally that broke slightly above the major resistance at 1.3505 (high of 1.3507). While further GBP strength is not ruled out, deeply overbought conditions suggest a sustained break above 1.3525 is unlikely. The high seen earlier this month, near 1.3570, is not expected to come into view. On the downside, firm support is located at 1.3460, with minor support at 1.3480."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted two days ago (21 Jan, spot at 1.3440) that 'the near-term bias is tilted to the upside toward 1.3505, but based on the current momentum, GBP may not break clearly above this level'. In a sudden move yesterday, GBP rallied to a high of 1.3507. While the price action suggests the risk for GBP remains on the upside, it is unclear for now whether upward momentum is strong enough to break above the significant resistance at 1.3570. The upside bias will remain intact as long as GBP holds above 1.3430 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3380)."
According to flash estimates, the Composite PMI in the United Kingdom (UK) economy expanded at a faster pace to 53.9 in January from 51.4 in December, also beating estimates of 51.7. The overall business activity rose strongly as activities in both the manufacturing and service sectors grew sharply.
The Services PMI has come in at 54.3, higher than the 51.7 estimate and the prior release of 51.4. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.6 from the previous reading of 50.6.
Market reaction
The Pound Sterling (GBP) has reacted positively to the PMI data. GBP/USD jumps to near 1.3520 as of writing.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.25% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.12% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.05% | -0.16% | 0.04% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.18% | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | 0.32% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.16% | 0.35% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.05% | -0.12% | -0.27% | -0.12% | 0.09% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.01% | -0.16% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.22% | -0.35% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.36% | -0.09% | -0.21% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
(This section below was published at 07:27 GMT as a preview of the preliminary UK S&P Global PMI data for January.)
The UK services PMI overview
The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January to be released by the S&P Global on Friday, later this session at 09:30 GMT.
S&P Global Services PMI is expected to come in at 51.7, slightly up from 51.4 recorded in the previous month.
How could it affect GBP/USD?
S&P Global Services PMI may fail to impact the Pound Sterling (GBP against the US Dollar (USD) as traders widely expect the Bank of England (BoE) to stay put on a gradual easing path, even as price pressures accelerated in December. Manufacturing and Composite PMI will also be eyed.
As expected, the upbeat UK Retail Sales report fails to boost the GBP/USD pair. UK Retail Sales rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December, against an expected decrease of 0.1%. The core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, increased 0.3% MoM in December, compared with the previous decline of 0.4% (revised from 0.2% decline). Meanwhile, the annual Retail Sales climbed 2.5%, while the annual core Retail Sales jumped 3.1%.
The GBP/USD pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) could weaken amid risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump initially threatened tariffs over his Greenland plan, but later reversed course after reaching a NATO framework agreement for a potential deal.
Technically, the GBP/USD pair inches lower after gaining more than 0.5% in the previous session, trading around 1.3490 at the time of writing. The pair may target the three-month high of 1.3562 as the next barrier. The immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3450, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3397.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in UK for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the UK private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP.
Read more.Last release: Fri Jan 23, 2026 09:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 53.9
Consensus: 51.7
Previous: 51.4
Source: S&P Global
USD/JPY has met interim resistance near 159.45 at the top of an ascending channel, with a short-term pullback potentially finding support around the 50-day moving average at 156.00-156.60, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
50-DMA seen as key support on pullbacks
"USD/JPY encountered interim resistance at the upper limit of an ascending channel near 159.45 earlier this month. If a short-term pullback develops, the 50 DMA near 156.60/156.00 could be an important support zone."
"Defence of the moving average can lead to persistence in the up move. Beyond 159.45, the next objectives could be located at projections of 160.70 and peak of 2024 near 162."
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $97.83 per troy ounce, up 1.77% from the $96.13 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have increased by 37.63% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 97.83 |
1 Gram | 3.15 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 50.16 on Friday, down from 51.15 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Growing consensus that Europe must chart its own strategic path is expected to underpin the Euro (EUR). EUR/USD may see further upside pressure, though resistance around 1.1770-1.1780 remains key, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.1780
"Events this week have seen most conclude that Europe needs to be the master of its own destiny. This time last year, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth was rubbishing NATO and driving Europe into more defence spending and more German fiscal stimulus."
"Eurozone 10 year swap rates jumped 40bp on this theme last year and quickly dragged EUR/USD some 5% higher. It is hard to see similar-size moves happening again – unless there is some surprise extra fiscal stimulus emerging – but this is a theme that will provide support to the euro on dips."
"EUR/USD my face another boost. 1.1770/1780 is intra-day resistance. Any unexpected break of resistance at 1.1810 would prompt us to reassess our neutral EUR/USD view this quarter."
Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to rise; the major resistance at 1.1805 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, increase in momentum suggest the likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1805 is rising, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Major resistance at 1.1805 is likely out of reach
24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for EUR to consolidate yesterday was incorrect, as it rose sharply, reaching a high of 1.1756. There has been a sharp increase in upward momentum, and we expect EUR to continue to rise today. However, the major resistance at 1.1805 is likely out of reach for now. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.1780. Support levels are at 1.1735 and 1.1715."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from two days ago (21 Jan, spot at 1.1680), in which we stated that 'the risk for EUR remains on the upside, but the probability of it breaking above 1.1805 is not high for now'. Yesterday, EUR soared and reached a high of 1.1756 before closing on a strong note at 1.1754, up by 0.62%. The increase in upward momentum suggests that the likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1805 is rising and will continue to build as long as the ‘strong support’ at 1.1675 (level previously 1.1625) remains intact."
Eurozone's flash HCOB Composite PMI remains steady at 51.5 in January, missing estimates of 51.6 due to a slowdown in the service sector activity.
The Services PMI drops to 51.9 from 52.4 in December, while it was expected to rise to 52.8. The manufacturing business activity declines again, but at a moderate pace. The Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.4, more than the consensus of 49.0 and the prior reading of 48.8.
“The recovery still looks rather feeble. In manufacturing, the headline PMI continues to signal weakness, while growth in services activity is somewhat more moderate than the month before. Overall economic growth remains unchanged. Looking ahead, the low growth in new orders is certainly no game changer. Instead, the start into the new year points to more of the same in the months to come," Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), said,.
"Comparing countries, services activity in Germany expanded in January at a fairly robust pace, while in France service companies slipped into contractionary territory. This may be linked to the political difficulties in finalising the 2026 budget. In manufacturing, France shows a slightly better performance than Germany, but in both countries output growth is nothing to write home about. Overall, Germany’s economy started the new year on a growth path, while monthly output in France has declined," de la Rubia added.
FX Implications
EUR/USD strives to hold the intraday low of 1.1728 after the Eurozone/German PMI data release.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.19% | 0.00% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.37% | -0.08% | -0.23% | -0.05% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.11% | -0.21% | 0.03% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.28% | 0.37% | 0.21% | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.29% | 0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.17% | 0.02% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.13% | -0.11% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.19% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.37% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This section below was published at 08:33 GMT to cover the release of Germany's preliminary September HCOB PMIs data for January.)
According to flash estimates, the Composite PMI in the German economy expanded at a faster pace to 52.5 in January from 51.3 in December, also beating estimates of 51.8. The overall business activity rose strongly due to upbeat service sector activity.
The Services PMI has come in at 53.3, higher than estimates of 53.0 and the prior release of 52.7. The Manufacturing PMI has contracted again, but at a moderate pace to 48.7. Economists expected the data to come in higher at 48.0 from the previous reading of 47.0.
“The data show a good start to the new year, overall. Output in the manufacturing sector returned to - albeit meagre - growth, and so did new orders. Even more encouraging is the stronger pickup in activity in the services sector. Looking ahead, confidence has risen noticeably in the services sector and has held at a solid level in manufacturing," Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), said.
FX Implications
There seems to be a positive impact of upbeat German PMI data on the Euro (EUR). EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1740 from its intraday low of 1.1728.
(This section below was published at 06:32 GMT as a preview of the Germany/Eurozone preliminary September HCOB PMIs data for January.)
German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview
The preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.
Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.
The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to come in higher due to an improvement in both manufacturing and the service sector activity. In December, the Composite PMI came in at 51.3.
Preliminary Services PMI is seen at 53, higher than 52.7 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have contracted again, but at a slower pace, to 48.0 from the prior reading of 47.0. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the business activity.
The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI also shows that overall private sector output increased at a faster pace in January, driven by improvements in both manufacturing and the services sector. The Services PMI is seen at 52.8, up from 52.4 in December. Like the German Manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing activity in the old continent has contracted too, but at a moderate pace to 49 from the previous release of 48.8.
How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?
Signs of strength in overall business sector activity from the German/ Eurozone flash PMI prints would be favorable for the Euro (EUR), while weak numbers would act as a drag on the shared currency.
EUR/USD trades close to the three-week high of 1.1769 as of writing. The major currency pair trades within a Symmetrical Triangle on the daily chart, indicating broader volatility contraction. The price is close to the upper boundary of the volatility contraction pattern around 1.1770, which is plotted from the multi-year high of 1.1919 posted on September 17.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1690 turns higher, and price holds above it, keeping the short-term recovery in place. A close above the 20-day EMA would preserve the bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.44 signals firm momentum.
Looking up, the pair could advance towards 1.1800 and 1.1900 following a decisive breakout of the January 20 high at 1.1769. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key support for the pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Germany for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the German private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Last release: Fri Jan 23, 2026 08:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.5
Consensus: 51.8
Previous: 51.3
Source: S&P Global
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
