Forex News
German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at 26.3 in July, beating the estimates of 18.0 and the June reading of 10.5.
The ZEW Survey - Current Situation improve to -77.6 from the previous reading of -81.0.
In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment also improved significantly. The sentiment data arrives at 23.4, higher than estimates of 11.2 and the prior release of 9.5.
Market reaction
No significant impact is seen in the Euro (EUR), following the release of the German ZEW Survery - Economic Sentiment data.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang judges GBP/USD price action as range-bound after an unexpected intraday spike and sharp drop. The pair is now expected to hold between 1.3400 and 1.3460 in the short term, with a broader 1.3385–1.3495 range for the coming weeks. Momentum indicators are flat, suggesting neutral direction with wider supports at 1.3210 and 1.3160.
Sterling-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we highlighted that GBP “is likely to trade in a range between 1.3420 and 1.3475.” The subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. GBP rose to 1.3481 before declining sharply to a low of 1.3414. The decline could extend further, but given the lack of any significant increase in downward momentum, GBP is likely to remain within a 1.3400/1.3460 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (20 Jul, spot at 1.3445) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent “build-up in upward momentum has faded,” and GBP “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 1.3385 and 1.3495.”."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI edges lower as bulls await further developments surrounding the Mideast crisis.
- The recent breakout through the 200-SMA on H4 and the 23.6% Fibo. level favor bulls.
- Mixed momentum oscillators warrant caution before positioning for any further gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound from the $79.50-$79.45 area and trades with a negative bias through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. The black liquid, however, remains within striking distance of its highest level since June 12, touched on Monday, and is currently placed around the $81.80 region.
Hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict turn out to be a key factor undermining crude oil prices. That said, significant disruptions to global oil supplies due to the restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, Iran-backed Houthis announced that they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, helping limit the downside for the commodity.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July fall were seen as key triggers for bulls. However, the lack of follow-through buying beyond the 50% retracement level and mixed momentum oscillators on the said chart warrant caution before positioning for a near-term appreciation.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) is easing back toward a neutral 58.55 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping below zero, hinting that bullish momentum is moderating. This, in turn, suggests that the 38.2% retracement at $82.34 might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of a more meaningful Fibonacci barrier at $87.17 (50.0%), then $92.00 (61.8%) as the next upside objective.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period MA at $76.61, reinforced by the nearby 23.6% retracement at $76.37, while a deeper pullback would expose the Fibonacci cycle low around $66.72 as a more distant structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- XAG/USD hits one-week highs above $59.00 as hopes of a ceasefire in Iran weigh on the safe-haven USD.
- Axios reported that Trumop¡s administration is reviewing a peace proposal submitted by mediators.
- Before that, the US and Iran exchanged fire for the 10th consecutive day, and the Houthis announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia.
Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying, favoured by a mild US Dollar weakness on Tuesday. The precious metal is testing one-week highs at the $59.70 area at the time of writing as investors hope that mediators’ efforts to achieve a new ceasefire between the US and Iran are offsetting fears that the conflict might escalate out of control.
US attacked Iran for the 1th day in a row, and Iran responded by targeting US assets in Gulf Countries. The key Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Iran-backed Houthis have announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi Arabian vessels, which might further strangle Oil supply.
Markets, however, are keeping the faith that efforts to cease hostilities will succeed, which explains the mild reversal on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Axios reported earlier on Tuesday that the Trump administration is exploring the peace proposal and that it has urged Israel to avoid steps that might close the diplomatic window.
Technical Analysis: Bulls breached the descending trendline
XAG/USD trades at $58.97, after breaking the descending trendline resistance from late May, early June highs, with momentum indicators supporting the bullish view. The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (14) is getting close but not yet at overbought levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator extends gains in positive territory, hinting that buyers remain in control while price presses into nearby overhead levels.
Bulls seem to have met some resistance in the middle range of the $59.00s, which capped rallies on July 14 and 15. Further up, a support-turned-resistance at $63.10 and a similar area just ahead of the $67.00 level are the next targets.
On the downside, the broken trendline, now at $56.45, and the year-to-date low, a few cents below $55.00, are likely to challenge bears. If these levels are broken, sellers might feel attracted by the late October 2025 low, at $48.64.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
ING Commodities Strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Copper prices are supported by tightening physical conditions in China. Yangshan import premiums have surged on scrap shortages and smelter maintenance outages, while Chinese and LME inventories are low. LME Copper trades near $13,600/t, up about 9% year-to-date, though global growth and Federal Reserve risks may cap further upside.
Chinese demand and low stocks support
"Copper prices found support at the start of the week from tightening physical market conditions in China. Import premiums for copper - the Yangshan premium - surged to $100/t, their highest level in more than a year. This is up from just $20/t in late January, as scrap shortages boosted demand for refined metal and imports."
"The tightness follows Beijing’s crackdown on invoice trading, which has disrupted scrap flows and constrained domestic supply. Maintenance outages at several Chinese smelters have also limited production. China’s copper inventories are now near the bottom of their seasonal range, while LME stocks are at their lowest since March as metal is drawn into the Chinese market."
"Copper also continues to find support from expectations of potential US tariffs. LME copper was trading near $13,600/t during Monday’s trading session, up around 9% year-to-date."
"Tight inventories, strong import demand and falling exchange stocks suggest copper fundamentals remain supportive in the near term. Still, concerns over global growth and the Fed outlook could limit further gains."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The USD Index is slightly lower to near 100.90 amid risk-on market sentiment.
- Iran receives a 10-day cessation of strikes proposal from mediators.
- Investors await the flash US S&P Global PMI data for July.
The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower against its major currency peers in Tuesday’s European session, as the appeal of safe-haven assets has diminished due to hopes of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.90. S&P500 futures are up 0.45% to near 7,477, reflecting risk-on market sentiment.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.34% | -0.33% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.23% | -0.25% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.00% | -0.30% | -0.31% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.43% | -0.47% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.14% | -0.30% | -0.31% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | 0.23% | 0.30% | 0.43% | 0.30% | -0.02% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.33% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 0.47% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 0.36% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.34% | -0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US-Iran ceasefire hopes emerged after Tehran confirmed receiving a 10-day cessation of strikes proposal from mediators to find ways to revive the interim deal with the United States (US). This also led to a steep correction in oil prices.
On the domestic front, investors await the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive at 54.5, higher than 53.9 in June, while the Services PMI is seen lower at 51.0 from the previous reading of 51.2.
USD Index technical analysis
The Dollar Index Spot trades lower at around 100.90 at press time, but is broadly sideways while remaining sticky to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 100.83. The formation of a Bullish Flag pattern suggests that the overall trend is still bullish, given that its breakout after a consolidation results in the continuation of the upside trend.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 54.50 suggests balanced momentum, reinforcing a neutral near-term bias as the index consolidates within the recent range.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the channel’s upper band near 101.13, and only a sustained break above this level would allow it to revisit the yearly high at 101.80. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the 20-day EMA at 100.83, with the channel floor at 100.23 forming a secondary support zone; a clear move below this latter level would signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jul 24, 2026 13:45 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 54.5
Previous: 53.9
Source: S&P Global
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank notes that new United States (US) tariffs of 50% on selected Canadian dairy, alcohol and automobile products under Section 338 will remove United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) exemptions. While the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) initial reaction was muted, he argues this trade dispute will dominate CAD news in coming weeks and that the loss of free trade benefits is likely to weigh on Canadian exports.
US tariffs and Canadian Dollar risks
"Donald Trump decided yesterday to impose new tariffs on Canada. Based on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, Canada is accused of unfairly discriminating against US products in the dairy and cheese sectors, alcoholic beverages, and automobiles. The U.S. government has therefore issued three notices (dairy, alcohol, and automobiles), each containing a list of products that will now be subject to a 50% tariff and are no longer eligible for the USMCA exemption."
"The Canadian dollar did not initially react noticeably to this development. The loonie did lose some ground yesterday. However, this could also have been due to the fact that the overall inflation rate in June came in slightly lower than analysts had expected in the median."
"Given the multitude of threats Donald Trump has made in recent months - not all of which have been carried out - the muted reaction seems reasonable for now. However, it is also clear that this issue will now dominate the news surrounding the Canadian dollar in the coming weeks. In particular, the fact that the existing USMCA free trade agreement no longer applies to these products is an important aspectthat is likely to weigh on Canadian exports."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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