Forex News
- Indonesian Rupiah weakens as lowered 2026 GDP forecasts, high oil prices, and rising imports weigh on fiscal sentiment.
- Bank Indonesia relies increasingly on Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) to maintain active currency intervention efficiently.
- Broad US Dollar weakness following Democratic midterm victories helps limit further losses for the USD/IDR pair.
USD/IDR remains stronger for the third consecutive day, trading around 18,200 during European hours on Wednesday. The currency pair is moving higher as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) struggles under the weight of mounting domestic concerns.
Ahead of the Q3 GDP data release on Thursday, Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara lowered the nation's 2026 growth projection to 5.4%–5.5%, down from 5.6%–6%, signaling a further slowdown from the 5.29% year-on-year growth recorded in Q2. Adding to these fiscal and external pressures are elevated oil prices, rising import volumes, and volatile export revenues.
Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained that its currency interventions have proven effective, with Governor Destry reaffirming the central bank's commitment to an active market presence through a greater reliance on Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) to lower the costs associated with direct spot interventions.
However, further gains in the USD/IDR pair remain constrained by broad weakness in the US Dollar following Tuesday's midterm elections. With Democrats winning control of the US House of Representatives from the Republicans, market participants are anticipating potential shifts in congressional leadership and renewed uncertainty over future US fiscal policy. According to live data from Decision Desk HQ, results have been called in 253 of the 435 House seats, with Democrats holding 152 seats compared to the Republicans' 101 in the pursuit of the 218 required for a majority.
Meanwhile, global financial markets are closely tracking geopolitical developments and interest rate expectations. Traders are evaluating the potential resumption of US military strikes against Iran as diplomatic talks drag on, with both Washington and Tehran reviewing mediation proposals following reported US airstrikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. While softer energy prices could ease expectations for prolonged monetary tightening, data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are still pricing in a 79% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
Dollar steadies as markets reassess impact of Democrat-led fiscal restraint
Analysts at Rabobank note that investors had been braced for the possibility that Democrat control of Congress would mean “fewer fiscal giveaways and therefore less inflation,” a combination that “suggests lower yields on treasuries which have negative implications for the USD.” However, they point out that the initial reaction has already begun to fade, with the “DXY dollar index” having “already started to reverse some of its initial losses” as markets reassess the policy outlook.
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Wednesday that the administration is closely tracking market moves with high sense of urgency. Kihara added, “Markets move on various factors.”
Market reaction
No major impact was seen on the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the release of Japan Kihara's comments. As of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.4% to near 158.00
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- USD/JPY returns above 158.00 after bouncing from session lows at 157.39.
- The US Dollar dropped across the board following news reporting that the Democrats took control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.
- The sound US macroeconomic fundamentals and ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict are providing support to the USD.
The Japanese Yen (JPY ) holds moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, but it has given back almost half of the ground taken following news of a sound Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. The USD/JPY trades near 158.15 as of writing after bouncing up from session lows at 157.39, although still below the intraday high, at 158.75.
Investors sold the US Dollar across the board during Wednesday’s Asian session as reports confirmed that the Democrats took control of Congress and also the Senate, which was more disputed, in a massive rebuke to President Donald Trump’s policies.
Fears of tougher AI regulation have spooked investors
Markets expect Democrats to implement regulation in the AI sector and put a brake on data center building. This has rushed investors into the safety of US Government bonds, pushing yields and the US Dollar lower and boosting traditional safe-havens such as the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.
Looking from a wider perspective, however, the US Dollar remains supported by strong fundamentals, which are likely to limit downside attempts. Later on the day, the focus will shift to the US ADP Employment Change Report, which is expected to show a moderate slowdown in employment growth in October, while the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is set to show levels consistent with solid business activity.
Beyond that, the conflict in the Middle East remains in a grey area, despite the ongoing efforts to resume the negotiating process, which keeps Brent Oil well above $100. The US launched a strike on Iranian targets hours before the elections, and Trump has kept the possibility of further strikes alive. Concerns about an all-out war would likely push Oil prices higher and restore the US Dollar’s safe-haven status.
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 4:
The US Dollar (USD) weakens against its major rivals early Wednesday as markets assess the outcome of midterm elections. The European economic calendar will feature preliminary October inflation data from the Eurozone. Later in the day, ADP Employment Change and the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) will be watched closely by market participants.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.34% | -0.36% | -0.26% | -0.35% | 0.03% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.31% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.36% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.38% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.12% | -0.10% | 0.26% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.36% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.26% | -0.36% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Democrats won the Senate and the House in midterm elections to take control of the US Congress in the last two years of Donald Trump's presidancy. Trump acknowledged that the Iran war is "partly to blame" for Republicans' defeat and said that he has no plans to make personnel changes inside his administration, as per the Wall Street Journal. With the first reaction to the election results, US stock index futures trade mixed, the USD Index stays in negative territory near 101.50 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays on the back foot below 4.95%.
Dollar enthusiasm fades as US equities and Nasdaq face renewed pressure
Analysts at Commerzbank warn that “US equities, and the more tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, are likely to come under pressure today,” noting that the Dollar’s recent strength has “benefited substantially in recent months from the enthusiasm surrounding US equities and the resulting capital inflows.” They caution that, as that equity-driven support ebbs, “Dollar weakness could therefore become somewhat more entrenched over the coming hours.”
Looking beyond the immediate market reaction, Commerzbank adds that “if political debate in the United States were to shift back toward a more constructive direction, admittedly a very big if, this could reduce the political risk premium embedded in the US Dollar and provide the currency with structural support over the longer term.”
Gold benefits from the broad USD weakness and gathers bullish momentum on Wednesday, rising more than 2% to trade above $4,000.
In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the data from New Zealand showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 5.7% in the third quarter from 5.6%. This print came in worse tha the market expectation of 5.5%. Despite the disappointing labor market data, NZD/USD gathers bullish momentum on Wednesday and trades slightly above 0.5600, up about 0.4% on the day.
EUR/USD climbed to a fresh two-week high above 1.1250 earlier in the day but retreated toward 1.1230 to erase a portion of its daily gains. On a yearly basis, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to rise 4% following the 3.8% increase recorded in September.
GBP/USD extends its winning streak into a sixth consecutive day on Wednesday and trades at its highest level sinde mid-September above 1.3450. The Bank of England (BoE) is forecast announce a 25 basis points rate hike on Thursday.
USD/JPY declined sharply during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday but managed to stage a rebound later. At the time of press, the pair was trading slightly above 158.00, still down about 0.4% on the day.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that resilient Eurozone data and a vigilant European Central Bank (ECB) now underpin the Euro, prompting a dial-back of earlier bearish EUR/USD views. Strong manufacturing PMIs, sticky input cost inflation and concerns over second-round effects and wages suggest the ECB may stay hawkish, while any unwind of EUR-funded carry trades could force investors to buy back Euro.
Resilient data and ECB caution
"We’re dialing back our view that the euro will weaken even as the economy strengthens. Resilient data and a hawkish ECB should put a floor under EUR for now, while a near-term reversal in October’s pro-carry flows into trades funded in European currencies would force investors to buy back EUR."
"Second-round effects will decide policy. Lagarde hedged her comments on second-round effects, noting that the central bank didn’t see a risk of them materializing “in addition to what is already included in the projections.” But the September baseline projections, which assumed a stronger EUR and lower energy prices than today, already showed non-energy industrial goods and services lifting inflation through H1 2027."
"Further upward revisions would push 2027 core inflation toward 3%, against the current 2.5% assumption."
"EUR can benefit as European funders recover. By design, when iFlow Carry significance reaches extremes based on rank correlations, there is scope for carry to mean-revert and unwind. The best risk-reward lies in currencies with the largest potential moves, assuming high-yielders begin to see net sales and funders net purchases."
"Our analysis shows that European funders had the worst flow performance over the past month and have the most to gain from a carry pullback. The EUR’s flow funding cost ranking (25 out of 32, where 1 is the highest flow score) is consistent with this view. If yields remain well anchored, or even rise, the currency’s flow performance could rebound sharply."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver price soars to near $51.85 on Democrats’ victory in both the House and the Senate.
- Democrats controlling the Federal law could keep the US Dollar under pressure.
- The Fed is expected to tighten monetary conditions in the December meeting.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges almost 4% to near $51.85 in the European trade on Wednesday. The white metal rallies vertically after the outcome of United States (US) midterm elections, in which Democrats have won majority seats in both Houses of Federal law.
The victory of Democrats has raised concerns over the continuation of ongoing policies, especially support Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending, by US President Donald Trump’s administration, leading to a significant improvement in the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver. However, this uncertainty is expected to keep the US Dollar (USD) under pressure.
Dollar sentiment softens as US tech equities face renewed pressure
Analysts at Commerzbank warn that US equities, and "the more tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, are likely to come under pressure” due to election, noting that the Dollar’s recent strength has been closely tied to "enthusiasm surrounding US equities and the resulting capital inflows."
In their view, any setback for US stocks could mean that "Dollar weakness could therefore become somewhat more entrenched over the coming hours." Commerzbank adds that "if investment begins to lose momentum, markets could start pricing in a weaker phase of US growth, which would weigh on the Dollar," reinforcing the risk that the currency’s latest pullback may extend as growth expectations are reassessed.
Going forward, the next key trigger for the Silver price will be US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is highly expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.00%-4.25% range in the December meeting.
Later in the day, investors will pay attention to the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for October.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $51.77, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $54.83. The metal’s failure to reclaim this short-term trend benchmark suggests ongoing downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.69 shows weak momentum that has bounced from oversold territory but still lacks bullish conviction.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near $54.83, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone. On the downside, the 11-month low at $48.62 is the key support level; a break below the same would open the door for further downside towards $45.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Deutsche Bank notes that Democratic gains in Congress have weighed on US equity futures, particularly technology stocks, amid concerns over tighter AI regulation. Asian markets showed mixed performance, while European equities remained under pressure following the previous session’s recovery in major US indices.
Global equities diverge as tech-led selling weighs on futures
"That backdrop helped US equities to finally stage a recovery, with the S&P 500 (+0.36%) picking up after 3 consecutive declines. That was led by the tech sector, with the NASDAQ (+0.83%) posting an even bigger advance, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (+2.63%) rebounded after falling by -11.6% over the previous three sessions."
"When it comes to the market reaction, there’s been a clear selloff in US equity futures, led by the tech sector. In part, that reflects investor expectations that Democratic control in Congress might lead to tougher regulation on AI, and futures on the S&P 500 are down –0.42% this morning, whilst those on the NASDAQ 100 are down -0.49%. However, S&P futures were down over -1% earlier, so they’ve pared back a decent chunk of those earlier losses, and there’s been a rally for US Treasuries as well, given that divided government has generally made it harder for fiscal stimulus to be passed."
"In Asia, there’s been a similar pattern overnight, with several of the most tech-exposed indices posting sharp losses, although they’ve recovered from earlier in the session. Nevertheless, Japan’s Nikkei is currently down -2.09% this morning, whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.03%) is now basically flat, but was down more than -4% at the lows earlier. Meanwhile other indices have posted gains, including the Hang Seng (+0.89%), the CSI 300 (+1.02%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.83%)."
"However, European equities underperformed their US counterparts, largely as they caught up to the late selloff in the US session the previous day, with the STOXX 600 closing -0.58% lower. And this morning, European equity futures are also trading lower, with those on the STOXX 600 down another -0.66%. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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