Forex News
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes New Zealand inflation at 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) target, and warns that higher energy prices could push it further. He sees a possible rate hike in late May, which might briefly support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). However, stagflation risks and growth headwinds leave the medium-term outlook for the kiwi unfavourable.
RBNZ caution versus weak growth outlook
"With a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, inflation in New Zealand in the first quarter of this year was slightly above the central bank’s target range. However, given the rise in energy prices, this may not be the end of it."
"The central bank has therefore already emphasized in recent weeks that it will be very cautious regarding monetary policy. Waiting for clear signs that second-round effects will materialize would be too late - at least according to Governor Anna Breman."
"A potential hike in the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting in late May does seem possible. However, this naturally depends heavily on how the situation in the Gulf continues to develop."
"In any case, a hike would provide some short-term support for the kiwi. In the medium term, however, this is unlikely to have a positive effect."
"All in all, this is not a favorable environment for the kiwi."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate fell to 4.9% in the three months to February after reporting 5.2% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.
The data came in better than the market forecast of 5.2%.
Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 26.8K in March, compared with a revised increase of 17.1K in February and the expected 21.4K gain.
The Employment Change data came in at 25K in February, against 84K recorded in January.
Meanwhile, Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, in the UK ticked up by 3.6% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in February versus a 3.8% growth booked previously. The market expectation was for a 3.5% print.
Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings, including Bonus, climbed by 3.8% in the same period after increasing by 4.1% (revision) in the quarter through January. The data beat the estimate of 3.6%.
GBP/USD reaction to the UK employment report
GBP/USD edges slightly higher following the release of the UK employment data. The pair is trading modestly losses on the day at 1.3522, as of writing.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.22% | -0.27% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.08% | 0.12% | -0.37% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.16% | -0.33% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.20% | -0.31% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.03% | 0.17% | -0.33% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.17% | -0.50% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.31% | 0.33% | 0.50% | 0.36% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.04% | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY trades sideways around 159.00 as investors await Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing.
- The US and Iran are expected to have another round of talks in the April 22-23 period.
- The pair remains rangebound for a month, wobbles around the 20-day EMA.
The USD/JPY pair consolidates around 159.00 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major struggles for a direction as investors await commentary from United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new chairman in his confirmation hearing at 14:00 GMT.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.00.
Investors would keenly focus on Warsh’s comments to gauge whether his decisions during his term will be biased towards Washington’s economic agenda or towards preserving the Fed’s independence.
Since US President Trump’s return to the White House, he has criticized the Fed, especially Chairman Jerome Powell, several times for not reducing interest rates aggressively.
On the geopolitical front, Iran and the US will likely have another round of talks in Islamabad either on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades flat at around 159.00 at the press time. The price has been stuck near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around 158.95 for a month, indicating a sideways trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests momentum has normalized into a neutral stance rather than signaling strong directional conviction.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the March high of 160.46, and a sustained break above this level would strengthen the pair to extend its upside towards the 2024 high of 161.95. Looking down, the April 17 low around 157.60 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Chair-designate Warsh testifies
Kevin Warsh (April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who has been nominated by President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 21, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
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