Forex News
- The Pound Sterling declines sharply against the US Dollar amid Middle East conflicts.
- Iran vows to retaliate against the US and Iran in response to Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum.
- Investors await the UK flash PMI and the CPI data.
The Pound Sterling extends its intraday decline against the US Dollar (USD), trading 0.6% down to near 1.3260 during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair tumbles as escalating conflicts in the Middle East have further diminished investors’ risk appetite.
During the press time, S&P 500 futures are down almost 1%, even after plummeting 1.5% on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.6%, slightly above 100.00, as its safe-haven demand has improved.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.72% | 0.58% | 0.21% | 0.17% | 1.58% | 1.25% | 0.70% | |
| EUR | -0.72% | -0.14% | -0.48% | -0.55% | 0.97% | 0.51% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.58% | 0.14% | -0.36% | -0.40% | 1.11% | 0.66% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | 0.48% | 0.36% | -0.03% | 1.36% | 0.95% | 0.47% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.55% | 0.40% | 0.03% | 1.37% | 0.94% | 0.47% | |
| AUD | -1.58% | -0.97% | -1.11% | -1.36% | -1.37% | -0.44% | -0.87% | |
| NZD | -1.25% | -0.51% | -0.66% | -0.95% | -0.94% | 0.44% | -0.51% | |
| CHF | -0.70% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.47% | -0.47% | 0.87% | 0.51% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Middle East conflicts have escalated as Iran vowed to retaliate against the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum, according to which there will attack on Iran’s power plants, with intentions to obliterate them, if Tehran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
On the domestic front, investors await the United Kingdom (UK) preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The impact of the UK inflation data is expected to be limited on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook, as rising energy prices due to supply chain disruptions amid Middle East conflicts have increased global inflation expectations.
In the monetary policy announcement last week, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% and raised Q3 CPI projections to 3.5% from previously estimates of 2.1% due to the global energy price shock.
(This story was corrected at 11:00 GMT to say in the fourth paragraph that investors await the United Kingdom (UK) preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, and not the opposite)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Gold has come under pressure as rising global yields, higher real rates and renewed inflation concerns reduce expectations for near-term Fed cuts. ETF outflows and stress-driven liquidation are adding to downside. Nonetheless, Their forecasts and commentary maintain a constructive medium-term outlook, with Gold expected to resume its uptrend despite choppy trading.
Yields weigh but structure still supportive
"Gold prices fell sharply as rising global yields and renewed inflation risks—driven by higher energy prices—reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors continued to pare back gold-backed ETF holdings, adding to the downside."
"The metal has also been prone to bouts of liquidation during periods of market stress, even as geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated."
"The market is trading less on geopolitical hedging flows and more on fears that stickier inflation could prompt a more hawkish central bank stance."
"Rising energy prices and fading Fed cut expectations strengthen real yields and the USD, pressuring gold. "
"Despite the near‑term pressure, the broader structural backdrop remains supportive. We still expect gold to resume its medium‑term uptrend, though prices may struggle for sustained momentum in the near term, with trading likely to stay choppy."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee refreshes lifetime lows at 94.40 against the US Dollar amid Middle East tensions.
- Iran pledges indefinite closure of Hormuz and attacks on regional infrastructure.
- FIIs continue to sell their stake on the Indian stock market.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its downfall against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the holiday-shortened week. Indian markets will remain closed on Thursday due to Shri Ram Navami.
The USD/INR pair posts a fresh lifetime high at 94.40 as the Indian Rupee faces the heat of conflicts in the Middle East, which have prompted global oil prices. Middle East conflicts have escalated following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, as relayed on Truth Social. WTI Oil price trades firmly near the psychological barrier of $100.00
Trump threatens to demolish Iran's power plants
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that they will “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, starting with the biggest one, if they refuse to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
Meanwhile, Iran has responded with threats of indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz and targeting all infrastructure of energy, information technology (IT), and desalination facilities in the region belonging to the US and Israel, The Politico reported.
Escalating conflicts in the Middle East have dampened demand for riskier assets, forcing investors to shift to safe-haven assets. Asian stock markets have bled due to the Iran conflict, with the Nifty 50 slumping almost 2.5% to a fresh over 11-month low near 22,550.
Amid Middle East conflicts, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly higher, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.5% to near 100.00. The US Dollar has been broadly firm as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt an extended pause on interest rates, with inflation expectations de-anchoring due to higher energy prices.
Higher oil prices raise concerns on Nifty 50 earnings projections
Overseas investors continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market amid the war in the Middle East. So far in March, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days and offloaded their stake worth Rs. 86,780.89 crore.
FIIs are keeping a distance from the Indian equity market amid fears that higher oil prices due to energy supply disruption would result in lower earnings reports by Indian companies in the fourth quarter of FY 2025-26 than previously estimated.
Meanwhile, oil supply to the Asian region will be squeezed further as Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, cut crude supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April after the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted trade via the Strait of Hormuz.
This week, investors will focus on the preliminary India and US private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March, which will be released on Tuesday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR posts fresh all-time highs around 94.40
USD/INR jumps above 94.40 on Monday. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends a steep advance above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which now trails well below spot and confirms an established uptrend.
Recent candles show no meaningful retracement despite the sharp climb, and momentum remains strong, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 81.56 in overbought territory, signaling persistent buying pressure rather than immediate exhaustion.
The sequence of higher highs and higher lows over recent sessions reinforces the upside bias, while the absence of rejection wicks at the top of the range points to sustained demand on dips.
Initial resistance is now seen near 94.50, where intraday supply could emerge, followed by a higher barrier toward 95.00 as the next upside reference if bulls maintain control. On the downside, immediate support aligns around 94.00, where minor consolidation recently formed, ahead of firmer support at 93.50. The 20-day EMA near 92.60 underpins the broader bullish structure and marks a deeper pullback area that would need to hold to preserve the current uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
ING strategist Francesco Pesole highlights that aggressive repricing of European Central Bank tightening, with three hikes now fully priced, may have gone too far. While EUR/USD has been supported by hawkish ECB news, he warns that elevated Oil prices, fragile risk sentiment and already stretched rate expectations leave the pair vulnerable to a downside correction back toward pre‑meeting levels.
Hawkish ECB pricing faces downside risks
"Watching central bank speakers may be even more important for the European Central Bank than for the Fed this week. Thursday’s report that the ECB is considering an April hike has caused a major repricing in EUR swaps, which now attach an 80% probability to April, with three hikes fully priced in by year-end."
"It still seems too hawkish to us, but we admit last week’s messaging was clearly hawkish and when a central bank tightens, it often delivers no fewer than two hikes. The longer oil prices remain at these elevated levels, the more realistic those hikes will be."
"However, given the size of the hawkish repricing, dovish comments can cause significant adjustments in front-end euro rates. Today, we’ll hear from a dove (Piero Cipollone) as well as Chief Economist Philip Lane. President Christine Lagarde is due to deliver remarks on Wednesday and there are plenty of other speakers to watch."
"On the data side, PMI and Ifo surveys will be the highlight this week. Consensus is for a moderate decline in both, but considering the size of the ZEW drop, risks are on the downside."
"EUR/USD has received support on hawkish ECB news, but with oil prices this elevated, risk sentiment unstable and markets already pricing in three ECB hikes, the risks look skewed to the downside. A correction to pre-ECB meeting 1.145 levels would confirm the FX market is not finding a sustainable anchor in the now tighter rate differentials."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir delivers remarks on the monetary policy outlook during the European trading session on Monday.
Remarks
We can do little about the inflation spike in the next few months.
Will not hesitate to act if inflation was at risk of staying above target for a prolonged period.
Every future meeting is open and live.
Supply chains beyond energy are at risk.
We're yet to leave our "good place."
Market reaction
As of writing, EUR/USD is down 0.55% to near 1.1500; however, the decline is due to the upbeat US Dollar (USD), and not the effect of ECB Kazimir's comments.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.58 per troy ounce, down 4.82% from the $67.85 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 9.15% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 64.58 |
1 Gram | 2.08 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.47 on Monday, up from 66.20 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
HSBC economists report that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.10% in March, marking a second consecutive hike driven mainly by domestic capacity constraints and inflation concerns. They still see additional tightening as likely, possibly in May. HSBC adds that the Australian Dollar (AUD) should benefit from a hawkish RBA and strong domestic fundamentals, even if external volatility drives swings.
RBA tightening underpins Australian Dollar
"Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.10% on 17 March, marking a second consecutive hike amid inflation concerns. The decision was primarily driven by domestic capacity constraints, although the Middle East conflict also contributed to upside inflation risks."
"The vote was narrowly split, with 5-4 in favour of the hike. RBA Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, framing disagreement as about timing, not the overall rate trajectory."
"Our economists’ central case remains that additional tightening is required, with a potential hike in May, though global uncertainty increases the risk around this call."
"Looking ahead, the AUD is likely to remain sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment over the near term."
"The AUD may struggle to outpace the USD, but it is likely to outpace the NZD, given Australia’s strong domestic fundamentals, including a hawkish RBA stance, commodity exposure, a modest current account deficit financed largely through foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows, and a comparatively low debt-to-GDP ratio vs other G10 economies."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Rabobank strategists Michael Every, Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura note that Brent crude has surged as Middle East conflict intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. They now expect flows only gradually recovering to about 80% of pre-war levels by August, with Brent to average $107/bbl in Q2 2026, $96/bbl in Q3 and $90/bbl in Q4 and WTI to average $98/bbl, $88/bbl, and $83/bbl for Q2-Q3-Q4 of 2026.
Benchmarks reprice extended supply shock
"Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks surged to nearly $120 a barrel on 19 March as the war in the Middle East deepened and attacks on energy assets intensified. While paper prices stayed below the $120/bbl mark, physical prices have already surpassed these levels, with Dubai crude exceeding $150–166/bbl. Markets are slowly repricing the risk of a prolonged disruption to global energy flows."
"We have earlier noted that it would take months for energy flows to resume to pre-war levels once the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. As it stands now that timeline has just shifted further back and we expect a full closure of the Strait to last until the end of April. Shipping will only slowly return after that and we expect crude oil and refined product flows to resume to around 80% of pre-war levels by August."
"We are raising our Brent and WTI crude oil targets again after a material deterioration to the prospect of any swift resumption of energy flows. We estimate that Brent will average $107/bbl in Q2, $96/bbl in Q3, and $90/bbl in Q4. We have raised our 2027 estimates up to $83/bbl on average for the year before moderating to $71.50/bbl in 2028. Our WTI quarterly average estimates are $98/bbl, $88/bbl, and $83/bbl for Q2-Q3-Q4 of 2026 and $77/bbl for 2027."
"We also see risk of further attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf inflicting lasting supply curtailments, posing significant upside price risk to our natural gas and crude oil views."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold prolongs its downtrend for the fourth day and drops to a fresh YTD low at the start of a new week.
- Major central banks adopt a hawkish stance amid inflation concerns and weigh on the commodity.
- Rising geopolitical tensions could support the safe-haven XAU/USD, though the upside seems limited.
Gold (XAU/USD) bounces off a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the first half of the European session on Monday and trims a part of its heavy intraday losses to a four-month low. Any meaningful recovery, however, still seems elusive in the wake of hawkish stances from major central banks, which tend to undermine demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its bias toward monetary policy normalization and warned that surging Crude Oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures. Adding to this, the Bank of England (BoE) signaled a hawkish shift and potential interest rate hikes as early as April due to inflation stemming from the Iran war. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish messaging suggested that policymakers were prepared to act as soon as April 30 if price pressures intensify due to rising geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the year-end inflation outlook (PCE), citing risks from higher energy prices due to the Iran war, and projected only one interest rate reduction this year, and one in 2027. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continues to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), which turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the Gold price. However, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal amid extremely overbought conditions.
In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to target Iran's energy infrastructure if the demand is not met. Iran responded by threatening to escalate strikes on energy infrastructure and target critical water desalination facilities across the Middle East, should Trump make good on a promise to “obliterate” the country’s power plants. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for acceptance below the $4,100 mark before positioning for any further depreciating move.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold defends 200-day SMA pivotal support amid extremely oversold daily RSI
The near-term bias turns bearish as the XAU/USD pair extends a sharp decline away from the recent $5,300 area and tests the rising 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,095, which acts as the next dynamic support gauge. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) remains below the signal line and deep in negative territory, with an expanding negative histogram that reinforces persistent downward momentum.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 24 signals oversold conditions, but its steady slide from above 60 indicates firm selling pressure rather than an immediate stabilization. Initial resistance emerges at the $4,500 region, where prior price action consolidated before the latest breakdown, followed by a stronger barrier near $4,820, aligning with a recent swing low that turned lower high on the way down.
On the downside, immediate support is located around the 200-day SMA at $4,095, and a clear break below this level would expose the $4,000 psychological area as the next support. A sustained recovery above $4,500 would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way back toward $4,820, while failure to hold above $4,095 keeps the path open for deeper losses toward $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.20% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.72% | 0.61% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.34% | 0.51% | 0.27% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | 0.14% | -0.11% | -0.21% | 0.65% | 0.40% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.66% | 0.47% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.34% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.70% | 0.48% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | -0.72% | -0.51% | -0.65% | -0.66% | -0.70% | -0.23% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | -0.61% | -0.27% | -0.40% | -0.47% | -0.48% | 0.23% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.19% | -0.22% | 0.45% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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