Forex News
- NZD/USD attracts some sellers on Wednesday as the USD strengthens ahead of the PCE data.
- A combination of factors might cap the USD and support the pair amid the RBNZ’s hawkish tilt.
- The technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers near the 0.5875 confluence.
The NZD/USD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and drops to a fresh weekly low, around the 0.5945 region during the early European session.
The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later today and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. This, in turn, drags the NZD/USD pair away from the early June high, touched last Friday.
However, diminishing odds for an immediate Fed rate hike move, along with easing inflation fears amid falling oil prices and positive developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, might cap the safe-haven huck. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt should help limit losses for the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an upward trendline, which now act as underlying demand and keep the near-term bias mildly positive. However, repeated failures to conquer the 0.6000 psychological mark warrant some caution for bullish traders.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at consolidative rather than impulsive momentum. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero, suggesting that upside pressure is soft but still supported by the broader structural floor near the aforementioned confluence around 0.5875.
A convincing break below the said support would be needed to signal a deeper corrective slide. As long as NZD/USD holds above these levels on a closing basis, dips are likely to attract buyers. Bulls, however, might await sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.6000 mark before positioning for an extension of a two-month-old uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.10% | -0.14% | 0.16% | -0.23% | 0.46% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.17% | 0.12% | -0.27% | 0.43% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.24% | 0.06% | -0.30% | 0.37% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.29% | -0.09% | 0.61% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.38% | 0.32% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.23% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.38% | 0.72% | 0.45% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | -0.43% | -0.37% | -0.61% | -0.32% | -0.72% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.12% | -0.35% | -0.07% | -0.45% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Danske Research Team reports that EUR/USD remained little changed around 1.1670, with the chart showing only a modest pullback from overnight highs before a partial recovery. Lower US yields and softer oil prices weighed on the Dollar, but declining European rates limited the Euro’s upside, leaving the pair without a clear directional signal.
EUR/USD stays broadly stable despite softer US yields
"US yields and oil prices moved lower yesterday, with Brent falling below USD90, as rumours stirred that there might be renewed hope for diplomacy between the US and Iran. EUR/USD was little changed however, as European rates declined as well."
"In the euro area, The German Ifo index rose by more than expected in August. The current assessment index rose to 88.5 (cons: 87.0, prior: 86.6) which is the highest level since 2024. Expectations rose to 89.1 (cons: 87.5, prior: 86.6) and are thereby almost back at the pre-war level."
"The evidence of a clear rebound in the German economy is thus piling up, particularly driven by the manufacturing sector. We expect the rebound to continue going forward as orders are up markedly and fiscal policy supports activity."
"In the US, consumer confidence weakened further in August, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index falling to 89.4, below consensus expectations of 91.2 and the previous reading of 90.8. The assessment of the current situation improved, while expectations for the future declined."
"Labour market perceptions also strengthened, as more respondents viewed jobs as plentiful, although overall labour market sentiment remains on the weak side. Plans for major purchases were mixed, with intentions to buy cars and homes declining, while planned vacations increased. Overall, the release does not provide a clear market signal."
"In the US, the July PCE inflation figures, the Fed's preferred measure, will be released in the afternoon. In June, PCE inflation was 3.7% y/y, still way above the Fed's target. Core inflation also remains elevated and was at 3.3% in June. Keep in mind that US Bureau of Economic Analysis will update their methodology for their calculation of PCE at the September release, which is expected to decrease core PCE by 0.2 percentage points for the August PCE figures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to sources, the European Central Bank (ECB) is all set to hike its key policy rates at the September policy meeting, RTE reported. Sources also said that the central bank has no appetite to raise interest rates again after a hike next month.
Market reaction
Some buying interest is seen in the Euro (EUR) after the report release. In European trade, EUR/USD recovers a majority of its losses, but is still marginally lower to near 1.1670.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- GBP/USD drifts lower to around 1.3625 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Traders brace for the release of US PCE data for July later on Wednesday.
- Expectations of a rate increase by the BoE this year could underpin the British Pound.
The GBP/USD pair declines to near 1.3625 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) as markets turn cautious ahead of the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is due later on Wednesday.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the US Department of the Treasury will double its bond buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation, up from the current $2 billion maximum, in an effort to stabilize surging long-term borrowing costs. This action exerted some selling pressure on the USD in the previous sessions.
The Greenback has recovered some lost ground after CNBC reported that the department could use part of its cash balance to buy back longer-dated bonds helped steady long-term yields.
Traders will take more clues from the US PCE inflation data later in the day. Economists expect that inflationary pressures remain sticky due to ongoing energy risks from the Middle East conflict. The Core PCE, excluding food and energy, is estimated to see a rise of 3.3% YoY in July.
All eyes will be on the speech from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. This event could offer some clues about the outlook for US interest rates. Any hawkish comments from Warsh could lift the US Dollar and create a headwind for the major pair.
Expectations that better-than-expected UK economic data through the first half of the year could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) this year provide some support to the Cable.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned that rising conflict in the Middle East has caused severe volatility in global energy and oil prices, although UK inflation recently eased to 2.6% in June. The UK central bank anticipates energy market shocks will push inflation back up toward 3.2% later this year.
UK fiscal risk stays in focus ahead of October autumn statement
Strategists at Scotiabank caution that, despite the recent improvement in market sentiment, “fiscal risk will remain elevated into the fall as we look to the Autumn Statement (budget) scheduled for release on October 28.” They suggest that investors are likely to stay sensitive to policy headlines in the run-up to the statement, with the fiscal backdrop continuing to shape the broader Pound narrative through the autumn.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a bullish bias above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band. The pair is pressing into the upper half of the recent Bollinger envelope, with the upper band acting as immediate topside supply, while a firmly bid Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 67 hints that buyers still retain control, albeit in increasingly stretched conditions.
On the downside, initial support aligns at the Bollinger 20-day SMA around 1.3532, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 1.3442, with the lower Bollinger band near 1.3390 reinforcing a broader demand zone on deeper pullbacks. On the topside, a clean break above the Bollinger upper band at 1.3675 would open the door for the 1.3700 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a positive 1–3 week outlook for GBP/USD, with 1.3700 still in sight as long as the pair holds above 1.3605. While the near-term tone has softened and spot has slipped below the bank’s expected 1.3630–1.3665 intraday range, the broader upside scenario remains valid unless strong support at 1.3605 gives way.
1.3700 remains in focus while 1.3605 holds
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Monday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum,” and we held the view that GBP “is likely to continue to trade in a range between 1.3615 and 1.3660.” GBP then traded within a narrower range than expected (1.3623/1.3655) before closing modestly higher at 1.3650 (+0.15%). While further range-trading appears likely today, the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.3630/1.3665."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3605 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3585), it will mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY declines to near 159.00 amid hawkish BoJ expectations.
- Investors keenly await the US PCE Inflation data for July.
- The US core PCE Price Index is expected to have remained steady at 3.3% YoY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/JPY dropping 0.1% to near 159.00. The Asia-Pacific currency gains amid firm expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% in the September meeting.
Strategists at Scotiabank note that domestic data have offered little fresh direction, with “fundamental releases…limited” even as “media are reporting of high-profile adjustments to BoJ forecasts as major banks shift their tightening calls to September.” They add that while markets have begun to reprice the near-term policy path, the “greater risk will center around the central bank’s tone as market participants look beyond the September 18 meeting,” suggesting that guidance on the trajectory of normalization may prove more market-moving than the decision itself.
Earlier in the day, the August 17-24 survey conducted by Reuters showed that 57% of economists expected the BoJ to raise its interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25% in September. This is a sharp turnaround from a July poll when just 5% expected an interest rate hike move
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades lower ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Inflation outlook steady as Wells Fargo sees only modest easing in PCE
Economists at Wells Fargo do not anticipate any major surprise on the inflation front in the July data. Drawing on the latest CPI and PPI reports, they note that these releases "point to a 0.1% gain in the PCE deflator in July, nudging the year-over-year rate down to 3.6%." At the same time, Wells Fargo expects "core PCE inflation" to "rise 0.2% on the month, leaving the annual rate at 3.3%," reinforcing the view that price pressures are easing only gradually rather than falling sharply.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.08, holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.46. The pair has retreated from recent highs and now sits under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting topside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 leans slightly negative but is not oversold.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 159.46, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and allow a recovery toward higher levels. With no nearby technical supports derived from the provided dataset, the pair appears vulnerable as long as it trades below 159.46, leaving price action driven by whether sellers can extend the decline or buyers manage to reclaim the EMA barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Deutsche Bank notes that Nvidia’s earnings have become a major macro catalyst, although the impact of positive surprises has faded in recent quarters. Ahead of the latest results, a rebound in Nvidia and semiconductor stocks helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while European equities were also mostly firmer. Asian markets are broadly higher as lower oil prices and bond yields support risk sentiment, with the KOSPI leading gains, while Australian equities underperform after inflation came in above expectations.
US, Asian and European indices firm
"As we said at the start of the week, in the past few years Nvidia’s earnings have often been a big macro event, with reactions on par with US jobs reports and CPI prints. But in the most recent quarters, the positive earnings surprises haven’t been as big as those in 2023-24, and after each of the last four earnings reports, Nvidia’s share price actually fell the next day."
"Ahead of the release, Nvidia (+2.19%) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (+1.44%) recovered yesterday. With the AI trade seeing more volatility over the summer, the Philly Semiconductor index is down -20.8% from its June peak, though it’s down only -1.9% from its level at the time of Nvidia’s last results on May 20 and is still up +63.6% YTD."
"The boost in AI sentiment helped the S&P 500 (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq (+0.66%) advance yesterday even as most S&P constituents fell on the day. US equity futures are little changed this morning."
"Asian equity markets are mostly advancing this morning supported by lower oil prices and bond yields. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.97%) is leading gains. The Nikkei (+0.76%), CSI 300 (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.82%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.72%) are also clearly higher with tech stocks rising ahead of Nvidia’s results. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.15%) is bucking the regional trend after Australia’s inflation overshot estimates."
"European equities were also mostly stronger yesterday, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.35%), DAX (+0.61%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.29%) moving higher, though the CAC (-0.16%) fell back."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that lower energy prices have helped pull US and European yields down, supporting a more benign macro backdrop without stoking USD debasement fears. Markets are watching US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaction function and commitment to the 2% inflation target could influence USD support and volatility.
Core PCE and Jackson Hole watched
"Lower energy prices helped pull US and European bond yields lower."
"This reinforces the view that a more benign macro backdrop, rather than interventions such as the Treasury’s surprise buyback announcement, can support lower yields across the curve without sparking concerns over USD debasement that increases USD volatility."
"Today's key event risk is US core PCE inflation. While the data is unlikely to alter the broader narrative of sticky inflation remaining modestly above target, it could keep hawkish Fed risks alive even if policymakers are expected to remain on hold in September."
"Questions around the Fed’s reaction function, and growing concerns that it may be placing less emphasis on inflation control, have heightened market focus on Chair Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole."
"The USD could find support if Warsh and other Fed officials push back against debasement concerns and reaffirm their commitment to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in wait-and-see mode after three rate hikes, assessing how inflation and the labor market evolve. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.5% but missed expectations, with trimmed-mean inflation stuck at 3.6%. He expects a hawkish tone at the September meeting but still doubts another rate hike is likely.
Stubborn CPI and RBA stance
"In the minutes of the most recent monetary policy meeting released yesterday, it became clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to take a wait-and-see approach for now to consider its next move. After three interest rate hikes at the beginning of the year, the bank sees itself in a good position and wants to first assess how inflation and the labor market continue to develop."
"Although the annual inflation rate fell to 3.5% in July from 3.8% in June, the median consensus forecast, according to Bloomberg, had anticipated a decline to 3.3%. This was likely due primarily to the fact that the energy component did not come in as low as expected."
"Looking ahead, falling real estate prices are likely to weigh on the housing component of inflation. At the moment, however, there is no sign of this in the current figures."
"Admittedly, the RBA’s next meeting isn’t until September 29. Another labor market report will be released by then, and even though the CPI figures for August won’t be published until a day later, the RBA will likely get a preview during the meeting."
"For now, however, it appears the RBA will need to strike a hawkish tone again next month to signal its readiness. We still do not believe, however, that another rate hike is likely."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD returns to the top of the weekly range, above 1.3860 after bouncing from 1.3825 lows.
- Lower Oil prices and renewed US-Canada trade tensions are weighing on the Loonie.
- US Dollar rallies remain subdued ahead of the US PCE Prices Index release and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) reverses earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, weighed by a recent pullback in oil prices and the escalation of the trade war with the US. The USD/CAD is testing the top of the weekly trading range, at 1.3867, after bouncing from 1.3825 lows on Tuesday, with all eyes on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due later on the day.
Trade tensions between the US and Canada are simmering again, after Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne announced new tariffs of up to 50% on a wide range of US products in retaliation for US levies, following a failure in the negotiations to reach a trade deal last week. US President Donald Trump responded by threatening a new round of tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel.
Beyond that, Oil, Canada’s main export, keeps trading lower, which is adding pressure on the Loonie. The barrel of Brent Crude changes hands at $85.70 at the time of writing, nearly 8% below last Friday’s highs above $93.00. News reporting that Iran and Oman are holding talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on Crude prices, although the key waterway remains practically closed after six months of conflict.
US PCE inflation and Jackson Hole to set the US Dollar's direction
Investors, on the other hand, remain reluctant to place large directional bets on the US Dollar, ahead of the release of July's PCE Price Index data and the second quarter's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The market expects the Core PCE to have remained growing at a steady 3.3% yearly rate, while the economy is seen expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate, below the first quarter's 2.1%.
The highlight of the week, however, will be the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is expected to provide further insight on the bank's monetary policy plans. Analysts at Standard Chartered argue that Warsh must “restore confidence that the Fed will do what it takes to lower inflation,” and persuade investors that “a Fed that does less and relies more on the private sector is not a risk to macroeconomic stability.”
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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