Forex News
Business activity in the United States (US) private sector showed continued expansion in October, according to preliminary data released by S&P Global on Friday.
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 56 in October, hitting a 53-month high, compared with 55.9 in September and market expectations of 55.6. Meanwhile, the Services PMI stood in line with forecasts at 57.9, following September's 58.8 reading.
The Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, eased to 57.6 in October, from 58.4 in the previous month.
Following the news release, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence argued: "October’s flash PMI data indicate that the US economy continues to boom at the start of the fourth quarter. The output readings from the survey are consistent with GDP growing at a 5% annualized rate after a 4% expansion was signalled for the third quarter."
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) remains slightly supported following the release of the S&P Global PMI data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, is up 0.09% on Friday, trading around 101.70 at the time of writing.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.19% | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.21% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.33% | -0.35% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.39% | -0.38% | -0.39% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.18% | 0.23% | -0.20% | -0.14% | -0.18% | 0.45% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.37% | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.65% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.38% | 0.14% | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.39% | 0.18% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.63% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.45% | -0.65% | -0.58% | -0.63% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US PMI data at 13:00 GMT.
- US business activity is expected to slow slightly in October, while remaining firmly in expansion territory.
- Manufacturing and services surveys are forecast to ease, following strong readings in September.
- The US Dollar could find support if stronger-than-expected business activity reinforces expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
The United States (US) S&P Global preliminary Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for October will be released on Friday, providing fresh insights into the health of the world's largest economy ahead of next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting.
The report includes the Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI, which measure business activity across the private sector. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while figures below that threshold signal contraction.
The October surveys come at a time when recent US economic data continue to highlight resilient economic activity, despite persistent inflationary pressures and elevated borrowing costs. Investors will closely monitor the figures for signs of slowing growth and renewed price pressures that could influence the Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US Dollar (USD).
What can we expect from the October S&P Global PMI report?
Market expectations point to a moderate slowdown in US private-sector activity in October, following particularly strong readings in September. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly to 55.6 from 55.9 in September, while the Services PMI is forecast to ease to 57.9 from 58.8. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI stood at 58.4 in September, highlighting robust growth across the US private sector.
Although both sectors are expected to lose some momentum, the anticipated figures remain comfortably above the 50 threshold, suggesting that the US economy continues to expand at a healthy pace.
The report will be particularly important given the latest signs of persistent inflationary pressures. Recent US economic releases show stronger-than-expected inflation, while Retail Sales and labor market indicators continue to suggest that domestic demand remains resilient.
Against this backdrop, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, following a 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September. However, investors are fully pricing in another rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
When will the October flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs for October will be released on Friday at 13:45 GMT. The publication could trigger volatility in the US Dollar and the EUR/USD pair, particularly as investors position themselves ahead of the Fed's October 28 monetary policy decision.
A stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations of additional Fed rate hikes in the coming months. Such a scenario would likely support US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, potentially weighing on EUR/USD.
Conversely, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in business activity, particularly in the services sector, could raise concerns about the sustainability of US economic growth. Weaker PMI readings could encourage investors to reassess the likelihood of further monetary tightening, putting downward pressure on the Greenback and supporting EUR/USD.
However, the market reaction could remain relatively limited if the figures broadly match expectations, given that both manufacturing and services activity are forecast to remain firmly in expansion territory.
With another Fed rate hike already largely priced in for December, investors will closely assess whether Friday's PMI figures confirm the resilience of the US economy or point to a slowdown. A stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening, while disappointing readings could cast doubt on the strength of economic growth and weigh on the US Dollar.
EUR/USD remains modestly bearish on the one-hour chart, holding below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1223 and the 200-period SMA at 1.1213. The pair is drifting just above nearby price support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 40 hints at waning bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, suggesting downside risks remain while these averages cap the topside.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the horizontal level near 1.1190, ahead of deeper floors at 1.1150 and 1.1114. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA at 1.1213, followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1223, with stronger hurdles at 1.1260 and 1.1285 that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 23, 2026 13:45 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 58.4
Source: S&P Global
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) strategist Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD trading defensively below 1.1200 after weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI, which still signals robust growth. Above-target inflation and resilience give the ECB room for more hikes, limiting divergence with the Fed, but he warns France’s fiscal troubles could push EUR/USD down toward the 1.1000 level.
Euro defensive on weaker PMI
"EUR/USD is on the defensive under 1.1200. The Eurozone October PMI was weaker than anticipated, but still indicative of robust growth. The composite PMI fell to a four-month low at 51.9 (consensus: 52.7) vs. 53.1 in September."
"The details showed both services and manufacturing activity slowed, with French private sector output moving back into contraction."
"Above target Eurozone inflation and a resilient growth outlook give the ECB scope to deliver additional hikes. The swaps curve implies nearly 75bps of tightening to 3.25% in the next twelve months. That limits policy divergence with the Fed and the drag on EUR/USD."
"However, France’s fiscal troubles can drive EUR/USD down to 1.1000."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD slips below 1.4000, heading for a second consecutive weekly decline.
- Rising Oil prices and expectations of a BoC rate hike keep the pair under pressure.
- Traders look to next week’s Fed and BoC decisions for clues on interest rates.
USD/CAD slips below 1.4000 to its lowest level in a month on Friday, extending its losing streak to seven consecutive days as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) to take different paths at next week’s meetings. This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while higher Oil prices linked to Middle East tensions provide an additional tailwind. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3975, on track for a second consecutive weekly decline.
USD/CAD has unwound roughly half of its September rally as expectations grow that the BoC could deliver its first rate hike of the year at its October 28 meeting amid heightened energy-driven inflation risks. Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, its highest level in four months.
Data released on Friday showed Canadian Retail Sales rose 1.2% in August after falling 0.8% in July. The increase was slightly below the 1.3% forecast. Excluding autos, sales grew 1.2%, beating expectations of 1.0% after a 0.8% decline.
According to TD Securities, an October move from the BoC would be “reckless. Not necessarily wrong. But a needless risk.” Their rates strategists therefore “look for the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.25% in October, before hiking 25bps in December,” followed by “an additional 25bp hike in January, bringing the overnight rate to the mid-point of the Bank's range of neutral rate estimates.”
Given what they describe as a “close call,” TD Securities cautions that they “would avoid any outright positions heading into the meeting.” They note that “recent Fedspeak has been emphasizing a more gradual path to hiking rates and lower urgency, while Macklem has surprised markets with the seemingly aggressive stance he has taken in recent communications.” In their view, “heading into the meeting, there is a more widely accepted expectation that the Fed holds, setting up for an asymmetry that favours CAD outperformance.”
Across the border, the US Dollar holds its ground after recent weakness driven by falling Treasury yields, as concerns over the sustainability of AI-related investments weighed on equities and pushed investors toward government bonds. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.70 after touching a three-week low of 101.45 on Thursday.
The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week after raising them by 25 basis points in September. Traders will watch how policymakers balance energy-driven inflation pressures against concerns that a slowdown in AI-related investment could weigh on economic growth. Markets still price in 80% chance of a December hike, but a more cautious message from the Fed could put renewed pressure on the US Dollar.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.15% | -0.20% | -0.24% | -0.09% | -0.19% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.30% | -0.35% | -0.21% | -0.30% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.26% | -0.35% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.36% | -0.03% | 0.10% | -0.00% | 0.49% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.38% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.52% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.26% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.35% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.49% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.49% | -0.52% | -0.39% | -0.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong say Indian Rupee's (INR) recent recovery has stalled as renewed gains in Oil prices highlight India’s external vulnerabilities. RBI measures and IPO inflows have helped stabilise the currency but not changed fundamentals, with elevated Oil sustaining structural Dollar demand. OCBC retains a cautious stance, expecting the next INR move to hinge on Oil, portfolio flows and USD direction.
Oil-driven vulnerabilities cap Rupee gains
"INR’s recent recovery stalled overnight as renewed gains in oil prices weighed on sentiment. The rebound had been supported by the RBI’s 10–12 October measures to ease USD demand pressures, alongside IPO-related inflows."
"However, these factors have somewhat help to stabilise the currency rather than altered its underlying fundamentals. Brent’s move above USD112/bbl served as a reminder that India’s external vulnerabilities remain intact, with elevated oil prices continuing to generate structural USD demand."
"We retain a cautious stance on INR’s outlook. RBI measures should help discourage speculative positioning and limit near-term depreciation pressure, but they are unlikely to sustain further gains if oil prices remain elevated."
"In our view, the recent gains in INR have been primarily policy- and flow-driven; the next move will depend more decisively on oil prices, portfolio flows and the broader direction of the USD."
"USD/INR last closed at 94.82 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but shows tentative signs of slowing while RSI rose from oversold conditions. Some rebound risks not ruled out in the near term."
"Resistance at 95 levels, 95.20 (38.2% fibo retracement of Apr low to May high) and 95,50 (50, 100 DMAs). Support at 94.20/30 levels (61.8% fibo, recent lows). Bias to lean against strength."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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