Forex News
- USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day as failed US-Iran talks boost the USD.
- Economic concerns due to the Iran war undermine the JPY and also support spot prices.
- Intervention fears limit deeper JPY losses and act as a headwind for the currency pair.
The USD/JPY pair opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains below the 160.00 psychological mark heading into the European session. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive of the bid tone for the third straight day and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid economic concerns stemming from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which, along with a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. Market players remain worried that Japan's economy will face significant headwinds due to instability in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the strategic waterway after the failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend.
Despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions, high-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough. Moreover, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon raise the risk of a re-escalation of tensions, triggering a sharp intraday rally in Crude Oil prices and fueling inflation fears. The resultant spike in Japanese government bond yields (JGB) highlights Japan’s vulnerability to external energy shocks and weighs on the JPY. Meanwhile, the stalemate benefits the USD's reserve currency status and supports the USD/JPY pair.
Furthermore, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more hawkish stance, amid renewed inflationary fears due to the war-driven surge in energy prices, turn out to be another factor underpinning the buck. However, speculations that Japanese authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the JPY. This, in turn, keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the USD/JPY pair and warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.22% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.12% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.25% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Hungary’s election delivered a supermajority for Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, easing transition risks and opening scope for structural reforms. While global war-related volatility may limit immediate gains, the bank notes EUR/HUF has already traded near 365 and signals a downward revision from its previous 380 end-June forecast, implying a stronger Forint profile.
Political shift and FX repricing
"Yesterday, the Hungarian electorate voted overwhelmingly for regime change: Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party (is assumed to have) garnered a supermajority in parliament – with roughly 69% of the parliamentary mandate compared with 28% for Orban’s Fidesz – which will allow it to deliver on bold promises to dismantle the erstwhile right-wing “illiberal system”."
"Of course, the supermajority will give him a more credible opportunity to start from a blank slate, and hence, the outcome will likely turn out to be more positive than our base-case in which Tisza would have won a simple majority."
"In our preview, we wrote that EUR/HUF could reach 365 after elections, if the Iran war situation were to permit."
"Hence, the benefit to the forint may or may not fully materialise against a more volatile global backdrop."
"Regardless, we will be revising our EUR/HUF forecast level downward from our forecast 380 for end-June."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 13:
Financial markets turn risk-averse at the beginning of the week after Iran and the United States (US) failed to make any progress in this weekend's negotiations. The only data featured in the US economic calendar will be Existing Home Sales for March.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.26% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.21% | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | 0.11% | 0.14% | 0.08% | -0.16% | -0.12% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | 0.23% | 0.26% | 0.22% | -0.00% | 0.12% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.08% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump explained that they had "very friendly" talks and that Iran agreed to "just above every point" the US needed. However, Iran's refusal to commit to giving up its nuclear ambitions caused negotiations to stall.
While speaking to reporters on Sunday, President Trump noted that the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding well, despite failed talks. Meanwhile, the US military said it will enforce a blockade on all naval traffic in and out of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz from 10:00 EST Monday. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Trump and his advisers are considering resuming military strikes in addition to the blockade to force Iran to accept the US' terms to end the conflict.
Crude oil prices opened with a large bullish gap. At the time of press, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading near $96, rising about 6% on a daily basis. Reflecting the risk-averse market atmosphere, US stock index futures lose between 0.6% and 0.7% on the day, while the US Dollar (USD) Index gains more than 0.3% on the day near 99.00. The data from the US showed on Friday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.3% in March. This print followed 2.4% in February and came in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.9%, as forecast, after the 0.3% increase recorded in February.
After posting gains in the previous week, Gold declined sharply in the opening hours and touched a six-day low below $4,650. XAU/USD rebounds in the European morning and trades above $4,700.
EUR/USD started the week deep in the red but managed to find support. The pair edges higher toward 1.1700 in the early European session, still down about 0.3% on the day.
GBP/USD gained nearly 2% in the previous week but opened with a bearish gap. At the time of press, the pair was trading slightly above 1.3400, losing 0.35% on a daily basis.
USD/JPY continues to push higher and trades above 159.50 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said in his prepared remarks in a speech during the European trading session on Monday that the economic recovery is modest in the wake of the war in the Middle East. Ueda reiterated confidence that the underlying inflation is gradually moving towards the central bank’s target.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that stagflation will dominate the agenda at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings following President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. He expects the IMF’s World Economic Outlook to downgrade global growth and single out Asia as particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on Hormuz-linked industrial inputs.
Stagflation and global exposure to Hormuz
"US President Donald Trump announced a drastic policy shift by ordering the US Navy to start blockading the Strait of Hormuz by interdicting every vessel in international waters that paid a toll to Iran for safe passage in the Strait."
"Trump’s Hormuz blockade also appears to be a maritime compellence campaign that directly rebukes US allies who refused to support the US conflict against Tehran. Trump’s March 17 address characterized NATO and Asian security partners as "free riders" who agreed with the mission but refused to "share the burden.""
"Following the US Supreme Court’s ruling that stripped President Trump of his ability to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for broad-based tariffs, the administration also appears to be weaponizing physical energy security to achieve the same mercantilist ends against its primary trade deficit partners in Europe and Asia. "
"The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), to be released on April 14, will likely include a downgrade to global growth, flagging Asia as the most exposed region due to its high dependency on the Strait of Hormuz for industrial inputs."
"Hence, expect stagflation to dominate discussions at this week’s International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C."
"IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that it would take some time for global prices to come down to levels seen before Operation Epic Fury began on February 27."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said in his prepared remarks in a speech during the European trading session on Monday that the economic recovery is modest in the wake of the war in the Middle East. Ueda reiterated confidence that the underlying inflation is gradually moving towards the central bank’s target.
Remarks
Japan's economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weakness.
Underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the BoJ's target.
The economy and prices moving roughly in line with our forecasts.
Financial markets are making unstable movements due to the Middle East conflict.
There are two-sided risks for inflation.
Rising oil prices weigh on Japan's economy due to worsening terms of trade.
If conflict pushes up inflation expectations, that could push up underlying inflation.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact of BoJ Ueda's comments on the Japanese Yen (JPY). As of writing, USD/JPY trades 0.3% higher to near 159.70.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following failed US–Iran talks, pushed Brent Oil up 9% to US$103 per barrel. Although US Central Command clarified a narrower enforcement scope, uncertainty over tanker flows and limited prospects for a durable reopening of the Strait keep upside risks for Brent elevated.
Blockade fears keep Brent supported
"Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, after US and Iran negotiators left Pakistan without an agreement following a marathon 21-hour session. Brent oil prices surged 9% to US$103/bbl, risk assets fell, the Dollar strengthened, and Asian currencies weakened."
"While this is not exactly a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, how this will work in practice including the act of differentiating the origin of vessels is still unclear."
"It is however important to highlight the important positives that have developed over the weekend despite Trump’s announcement."
"First, this was the highest level of diplomatic contact between the US and Iran over the past four decades, and with the Iran side in particular sending in a meaningfully large delegation including economic officials such as the central bank governor, and as such highlighting the seriousness the Iranians in particular brought to these negotiations."
"Second, reports suggest the negotiations stretched into technical and expert level meetings on the second day, and as such indicating that there were substantive discussions and progress being held."
"Third, there were three oil supertankers which crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and totalling around 6 million barrels. This would likely represent the largest non-Iranian tanker flow since the Iran/Middle East conflict started."
"Of course, all these points are moot if hostilities resume, which ultimately also depends on how this blockade is enforced. Will Chinese tankers taking Iranian oil from Iranian ports be blocked for instance? We have our doubts about that and how that will work in practice."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD may find the initial resistance at the 50-day EMA of 0.5843.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is just above 51, suggesting mildly positive momentum.
- The nine-day EMA at 0.5797 provides immediate support.
NZD/USD rises after opening at a gap down, trading around 0.5830 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a potential for a bullish bias as the pair remains within the emerging ascending channel pattern.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 51, hinting at mildly constructive momentum but not yet signaling a decisive directional break while price remains capped beneath the longer EMA.
However, the NZD/USD pair is caught between a supportive nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and overhead pressure from the 50-day EMA, leaving the near-term tone broadly range-bound.
The primary resistance lies at the medium-term average at 0.5843, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.5900. A break above the channel would support the NZD/USD pair to explore the region around 0.6094, the highest since July 2025, which was reached on January 29.
The nine-day EMA at 0.5797 acts as an immediate support, followed by the lower ascending channel boundary around 0.5740. Further decline below the channel would expose 0.5681, the weakest level in nearly five months, recorded on April 6.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.31% | 0.39% | 0.22% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | -0.31% | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.20% | -0.00% | -0.14% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.39% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.29% | -0.07% | -0.22% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | 0.07% | 0.17% | -0.18% | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.14% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | 0.14% | 0.22% | 0.10% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
Danske Research Team expects equity markets to open more than 1% lower, tracking Asian losses after US‑Iran talks failed and Brent crude gapped higher. The bank notes a likely catch-down in European indices after Friday’s relative outperformance, even though risk appetite had remained visible last week with cyclicals and semiconductors outperforming defensives.
Futures point to weaker open
"Brent crude gap opens above US 100 per barrel on Monday morning after the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement over the weekend."
"Equity futures are pointing to an opening south of -1% today, mirroring the sell-off across Asia as the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend failed."
"However, US markets were lower already on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing down -0.1% and HY credits -0.4%, despite solid inflation figures. In contrast, Stoxx 600 closed up 0.4% and OMX Nordic surged 1.3%, so we should expect a catch-down effect amplifying negative reaction in our markets today."
"Interestingly, the tech sector was one of the best-performing sectors in the US on Friday, despite software continuing to sell off. Semis could more than compensate for this weakness, however, which is interesting - and in line with our views..."
"Materials and real estate also fared well, while it was defensive sectors like health care and staples selling off. Hence, risk appetite was fully visible throughout last week despite the negative closing."
"Consequently, equities and equity futures are in red and the USD a bit stronger."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
