Forex News

• Gold climbs as falling Treasury yields offset recovering US Dollar.
• US-Iran pause lifts sentiment, but Fed decision limits conviction.
• Failure near $4,070 risks pullback toward $4,050 support.

Gold price registers gains of 0.58% as Washington pauses attacks on Tehran, while US President Donald Trump opened the door for a resumption in negotiations. This, along with falling US Treasury yields, is a tailwind for Bullion prices with XAU/USD approaching $4,070.

XAU/USD holds gains on lower Treasury yields, Iran de-escalation hopes

Sentiment has improved during the day as news that a Chinese state-backed firm is producing chipmaking machines pushed US equities lower. In the precious metals segment, the yellow metal clings to gains, though XAU/USD is nearly back to the $4,050 area, which could open the door for further downside.

Geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets. Over the weekend, the White House paused attacks, adding to the market's positive mood. Also, US President Donald Trump said that Iran wants to meet, and that they’re meeting and added that “there’s a chance we can make a deal with Iran.”

Data in the US revealed that Durable Goods Orders in June improved but fell short of estimates. Nevertheless, traders' eyes are on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by a busy economic docket on Thursday.

Money markets had priced in a 60% chance that the US central bank would keep rates unchanged and a slim 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal data.

On Thursday, the US schedule will feature the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter, the final print of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and Initial Jobless Claims data.

In the meantime, Bullion prices recovered as US Treasury yields are edging lower. The US 10-year T-note falls 3.5 basis points (bps) to 4.645%. As of writing, the Greenback turned green as depicted by the measure of a basket of six currencies against the American currency, aka the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Oil prices fell 6% to hit a one-week low after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend following two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that would de-escalate the conflict and allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz.

In June, China's net Gold imports through Hong Kong more than doubled from the same month last year but were down by over 5% from May, according to data from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department released on Monday.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold trades sideways despite posting gains

Gold’s price action projects that some consolidation lies ahead. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows some mixed signs. The index remains bearish but closing into the 50 neutral level, which, once pierced, turns bullish.

For a bullish resumption, the XAU/USD must clear the $4,100 mark. Above lies the July 22 daily high at $4,165, which, once surpassed, clears the way toward the July 6 daily peak at $4,202. A breach of the latter exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,221.

On the downside, the first key support is the daily low of July 24 at $4,022. Beneath are the psychological $4,000 mark, followed by the June 17 daily low of $3,959.

• Silver struggles below the 21-day SMA as prices remain trapped within a $55-$62 range.
• The RSI and MACD indicators point to near-term stabilization as selling pressure eases.
• A break above $62 could expose $65, while a close below $55 would bring $50 into focus.

Silver (XAG/USD) reverses part of its earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap following a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.34, up 0.37% on the day, after briefly climbing above $60 earlier during the Asian trading session.

XAG/USD has traded largely within a $55.00-$62.00 range in recent weeks, with hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations capping upside attempts.

Could Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision trigger Silver’s next directional move?

The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although a surprise hike cannot be ruled out. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of an immediate increase.

A surprise rate hike would likely be the most bearish outcome for Silver. Higher interest rates would strengthen the US Dollar and push US Treasury yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver. Such an outcome could trigger a break below the lower end of its recent range at $55.

A hawkish hold could also put the $55 support level at risk if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasises persistent inflation concerns and signals that a rate hike later this year remains likely.

On the other hand, a dovish hold could provide relief for Silver, although it is not the base-case scenario. If the Fed adopts a less hawkish tone than markets expect, traders could scale back rate-hike bets, increasing the chances of a recovery above $62.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish bias despite showing signs of stabilization. Buyers are struggling near the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.75.

Momentum shows tentative improvement, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory, hinting that selling pressure is losing intensity rather than that a bullish reversal is underway.

The 21-day SMA at $58.75 offers immediate resistance, followed by $62, the upper boundary of the recent range. A decisive break above this level could expose the 50-day SMA at $65, followed by the 100-day SMA at $70.94.

On the downside, $55 provides initial support. A daily close below this level could open the door toward the psychological $50 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer argues that high energy prices will continue to weigh on the German economy in the second half of 2026, limiting full-year growth to 0.6%. He notes that the strong Ifo business climate reading partly predates the recent Oil price surge, but still highlights recovery potential if US–Iran tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz reopens permanently.

High energy costs cap German growth

"The significant increase in the Ifo business climate (86.6 after 85.7) is only of limited significance because most companies answered the survey before the massive oil price increase of the last two weeks. But at least the increase shows the potential for recovery if the US and Iran would reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz would be permanently opened. Unfortunately, however, the road to a lasting agreement is likely to be long and bumpy, so that the economy will also suffer from high energy prices in the second half of the year."

"When interpreting the sharp increase, it should be taken into account that companies usually responded to the Ifo survey by the middle of the month. Most companies have therefore not been able to react to the sharp rise in the oil price since then. In this respect, the July reading is likely to exaggerate the actual development, even if the Brent oil price fell by around 10 dollars this morning compared to Friday and is at around 90 dollars."

"Ultimately, the road to an understanding will be long and bumpy, even if Iran has a strong economic incentive to reach an agreement in the end, because Donald Trump has made major concessions (even reconstruction aid) to the regime in the framework agreement."

"All in all, high energy prices are likely to continue to weigh on the German economy in the second half of the year. We continue to expect only a meagre increase of 0.6% for the year as a whole. But at least today's sizeable rise in the Ifo business climate shows the potential for recovery if the US and Iran reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is opened permanently."

"However, because an agreement will take a long time, this is more likely to be an argument for slightly more growth for the coming year (forecast: 1.0%)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD moves back to even on Monday as investors remain cautious ahead of Eurozone growth data.
• Eurozone GDP is expected to grow 0.2% QoQ and 0.4% YoY.
• Germany’s July CPI is expected to rise 0.7% MoM after a 0.3% decline.

EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Monday, surrendering earlier gains as investors remain cautious ahead of key Eurozone growth figures and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Improved global risk sentiment follows a pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran, which triggered a sharp decline in Oil prices and a rally across stock and bond markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $83.60 per barrel, falling more than 7% as concerns over supply disruptions ease.

Investors now await preliminary second-quarter Gross Domestic Product data from Germany and the broader Eurozone. Eurozone GDP is expected to expand 0.2% QoQ after contracting 0.2% previously, while annual growth is forecast to accelerate to 0.4% from 0.3%.

Germany’s economy is expected to stagnate quarterly following a 0.3% expansion, although annual GDP growth is projected to rise to 0.6% from 0.4%. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce concerns about the region’s economic outlook and place additional pressure on the Euro.

Germany’s preliminary July Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also be closely watched. Monthly inflation is expected to rise 0.7% after declining 0.3%, while annual inflation previously stood at 2.3%. Stronger price pressure could support expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a restrictive stance, supporting the Euro.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1372, holding a bearish near-term bias as the pair remains capped beneath the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1391 and the 100-period SMA near 1.1420. Momentum is subdued with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering at 41, which suggests weak buying interest and keeps the focus on the downside while the pair stays under this layered moving-average resistance.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 1.1375, followed by 1.1386 and then a denser barrier around 1.1391, where a horizontal level coincides with the 20-period SMA, before the 100-period SMA at 1.1420 comes into play. On the downside, the immediate support is seen at 1.1369; a clear break below this floor would open the door to an extension of the current bearish phase, while holding above it would merely keep the pair in a corrective consolidation beneath the cited resistance cluster.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• DJIA trades near 52,200 after an intraday run to just short of 52,600 met a semiconductor rout with nothing to do with Iran.
• Crude Oil drops around 7% on a weekend standdown Washington partly attributes to running short of targets.
• Wednesday's Fed decision still carries a hike tail above 35%, unchanged from last week despite the collapse in the war premium.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 52,200, up around 250 points, on Monday after a session that handed it the month's cleanest bullish catalyst and then took most of it back. The peace bid carried the index to just short of 52,600 before a semiconductor sell-off with Chinese fingerprints dragged it back to the 52,000 handle, with the late tape reclaiming half of that fade.

A pause is not peace

The United States and Iran stood down over the weekend after roughly two weeks of nightly strikes. Crude Oil repriced hard with Brent falling around 7% to the $90.00 handle after a look above $100.00 last week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to near $84.00. Trump says the talks are making progress. Tehran has confirmed nothing beyond a reported willingness to hold fire for as long as Washington does.

The reason behind the pause matters more than the fact of it, and wire reporting attributes the halt in part to advisers warning the campaign was running short of worthwhile targets and drawing down munitions faster than the Pentagon finds comfortable. That is an inventory problem wearing a diplomatic suit. The physical evidence has not caught up either, with transit through Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb slowing again over the weekend, while Yemen's Houthis kept claiming attacks on Saudi shipping.

This is the fourth de-escalation the tape has bought since April, after the truce, the May ceasefire and last month's peace framework, each of which broke within weeks. Four days ago the president was weighing an attack he described as bigger than anything that came before. Paying for peace and getting it are different transactions, and Crude Oil keeps relearning the difference.

The sell-off that had nothing to do with Iran

The peace bid ran instead into a supply chain story out of China, where reporting that domestic toolmakers have started mass producing homegrown deep ultraviolet lithography machines took more than 7% out of the dominant Western supplier and knocked around 3% off the benchmark semiconductor complex. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped 7%; Teradyne (TER), 5.9%; and Micron (MU), 4%, erasing an early rally built on a Chinese memory maker's blockbuster Shanghai debut.

The divergence explains the day's scoreboard, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both lower while the Dow holds a gain of roughly half a percent. The insulation is mechanical rather than clever, because a price-weighted average gives Nvidia (NVDA) only a modest slice, so a chip rout costs this index far less than it costs a capitalization-weighted benchmark.

What the Dow does own is the fuel bill, since the names that dominate the average burn energy rather than sell it. SpaceX (SPCX), trading near half its post-listing high and beneath its offer price for an eighth session, is the temperature reading from the other end of the risk spectrum. The average that spent July as a war shelter is now the cleanest way to own the peace.

The rates market declines the peace dividend

June Durable Goods Orders, out at 12:30 GMT, rose 0.3% against a 1.6% consensus and a 4% contraction the month before, with orders excluding transportation up 0.6% and the nondefense capital goods ex aircraft line, the release's proxy for business investment, up 0.9%. The headline is a growth miss, not an inflation signal, and the front end ignored it entirely.

Wednesday's decision still carries a hike tail of 35.8%, unchanged from where futures pricing sat before Crude Oil surrendered 7% and last week's war premium came out of the barrel. Further out the curve trimmed only at the margin: at least one hike reads 80.3% by 16 September, 85.9% by 28 October and 91.0% by 9 December, with a 57.0% chance of two by then.

June's Minutes rested the disinflation base case explicitly on Hormuz disruptions diminishing, and those disruptions have now diminished, at least for three days. The market's answer has been to leave Wednesday's hike odds untouched and shave a point or two off the autumn. Either traders do not believe the pause, or they have decided the inflation problem was never mostly about the barrel.

The calendar does the talking this week

The Federal Reserve decision lands Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, consensus a hold at 3.75%, no projections attached, press conference at 18:30. Thursday stacks the June Personal Consumption Expenditures price index at 12:30 GMT, core seen at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, against the first reading of second quarter Gross Domestic Product at 2.1% annualised and jobless claims at 204K after 187K.

Friday adds the second quarter Employment Cost Index at 0.8%, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index at 56 and the Michigan survey, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.2% and the five-year at 3.3%. Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) all report from inside the index this week, Meta Platforms (META) reports from outside it, and Alphabet (GOOGL), which joined the average in late June, has already set a bar low enough to trip over.

Chart levels

Resistance: The session high just short of 52,600 is the ceiling the peace trade could not clear, and a daily close above it reopens the 52,800 area ahead of the record near 53,300.

Support: The 52,000 handle absorbed the afternoon fade and carries the tape now, with 51,800 beneath it and the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average near 51,500 as the last defence, the level that held the war flush last week.

Bias: Bullish above 52,000. Two consecutive gains off the 51,500 area, a daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index near 18 and turning up, and a reclaimed 52,000 handle together describe a base rather than a top, and last week's bearish case expires on that reclaim. A daily close back beneath 51,800 revives it.

Dow Jones daily chart

• GBP/USD retreats from 1.3363 as risk sentiment turns defensive.
• Chipmaking headlines pressure Sterling as markets await Fed decision.
• BoE expected to hold rates despite July Oil price shock.

The Pound Sterling retreats by 0.13% even though the Greenback is flat during the day. Risk appetite shifted sour on news that a Chinese state-backed company is producing chipmaking machines, prompting a sell-off in ASML, the Netherlands-based company.  The GBP/USD trades at 1.3305, after reaching a high of 1.3363.

GBP/USD slips as chipmaking worries, Fed-BoE caution, UK political uncertainty weighed

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a relief for major central banks as Oil prices slide as the US paused attacks on Iran over the weekend. The US President Donald Trump warned of further military action if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail. He said that attacks would be “very powerful.”

On Monday, the US economic docket featured Durable Goods Orders for June, which improved from -4% contraction to 0.3% MoM, missing estimates of 1.6% expansion. However, traders' focus will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, which is expected to keep rates unchanged, with odds at 60%. The chances of a 25-basis-point rate hike are slim, at about 40%, according to Prime Terminal data.

In the UK, the schedule was absent, but investors are also awaiting the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. Here, investors are confident that the UK central bank will keep rates unchanged at 3.75% despite the jump in Oil prices in July.

Sterling would remain pressured as investors assess the intentions of the new government led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

GBP/USD price forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3304, keeping a mild bearish bias as spot holds below the simple moving average cluster now aligned near 1.3367. The pair also remains under the broader downward resistance trend line projected from the 1.3465 break area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) around 43 suggests subdued upside momentum rather than outright selling capitulation.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the simple moving average zone around 1.3367, with a sustained break exposing the downtrend barrier linked to the 1.3465 region. On the downside, the next notable technical floor is the rising support trend line anchored near 1.3159, where buyers would be expected to regroup if bearish pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since June 2025, extending its advance for a sixth consecutive day.
• The Swiss Franc slips after Bloomberg reports the SNB may maintain zero interest rates through 2027.
• Markets await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.

USD/CHF climbs to fresh highs since June 2025 on Monday after Bloomberg reported that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could keep its policy rate at zero until the end of 2027. The SNB later declined to comment on the report, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8187, extending its gains for a sixth consecutive day.

Swiss inflation remains subdued and comfortably within the SNB’s 0%-2% price-stability range. Elevated Oil prices since the US-Iran war began have increased near-term inflation risks, but the impact has been far more contained in Switzerland than in the United States.

The Bloomberg report noted that the outlook is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks, citing people familiar with the thinking inside the central bank.

Diverging monetary policy expectations keep USD/CHF tilted to the upside in the near term. While the SNB is expected to keep rates at zero, traders increasingly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates later this year to curb inflation.

The Fed announces its monetary policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, traders still price in a 33% chance of an immediate hike, while the probability of a rate increase in September stands near 81%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The wide interest-rate gap between the two countries favours the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the Greenback has also emerged as the preferred safe-haven currency during the US-Iran war, while the SNB’s readiness to curb excessive strength in the Swiss Franc limits demand for the currency.

A temporary pause in attacks between the United States and Iran initially weighed on the US Dollar earlier in the day. However, the optimism faded as the prospects of a peace agreement appear slim.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.47, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12.

• The Japanese Yen strengthens against the US Dollar as tensions between the United States and Iran ease.
• Investors await this week's monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
• US Durable Goods Orders disappoint expectations, limiting support for the US Dollar.

USD/JPY edges lower on Monday and trades around 163.70 at the time of writing, down 0.09% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure from improving risk sentiment following the latest geopolitical developments. Market mood improved after Washington and Tehran confirmed they had paused attacks against each other, reviving hopes for renewed diplomatic efforts between the two countries.

The US Dollar's weakness is also reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which remains in negative territory, while US equities are moving higher, highlighting a more favorable environment for risk assets.

Market participants are now turning their attention to this week's monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), due on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), scheduled for Friday. Both central banks are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Investors will mainly focus on the tone of policymakers, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently stated that forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy environment.

In Japan, investors continue to expect the BoJ to maintain a gradual tightening bias. According to a recent Reuters poll, a large majority of economists expect the central bank to deliver another interest rate hike by the end of the year, supporting expectations for a continued normalization of Japanese monetary policy.

US economic data released on Monday also provided only limited support for the Greenback. Durable Goods Orders increased by just 0.3% in June, well below market expectations of a 1.6% rise. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.6%, while computers and electronic products made the strongest contribution to the increase.

The combination of easing geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected US economic data and caution ahead of the Fed and BoJ policy meetings is therefore keeping USD/JPY under modest pressure at the start of the week.

BoJ under pressure to turn more hawkish as Yen hovers near multi-decade lows

Analysts at MUFG note that the recent “drop in energy prices at the start of this week has brought some much-needed relief for Japanese policymakers and helped to slow upward momentum for USD/JPY which has held just below the 164.00-level since late last week.” They add that “market attention in the week ahead will be on how the BoJ responds to inflation pressures in Japan,” with investors focused on whether the central bank uses the upcoming meeting to shift guidance.

MUFG points out that “the BoJ are expected to leave rates on hold after hiking at the last meeting in June, but market participants will be watching closely to see if they provide any hawkish signals over future hikes.” The bank highlights a recent “Bloomberg” report suggesting “that the BoJ was open to a faster pace of rate hikes than every six months while adding that yen weakness was increasing upside inflation risks.” In their view, “without hawkish guidance, the yen is vulnerable to further weakness especially if the Fed delivers a hawkish policy surprise this week.”

Strategists at BNY similarly argue that “the BoJ is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, with guidance and updated projections the key focus for timing signals.” They flag that “Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales and industrial production will provide the final assessment of economic conditions ahead of the meeting,” helping to shape the policy debate. BNY expects “the BoJ is expected to keep the target rate unchanged at 1.00%, but a hawkish message committing to further tightening is probably a matter of urgency as the JPY slides beyond four-decade lows.” They warn that “fears are growing over fiscal conditions as well in light of the recent budget, and the BoJ needs to signal some tightening in financial conditions to manage the risks arising from fiscal impulse.” Until the central bank “gets ahead of expectations, the JPY will struggle, especially as balance-of-payments risks resurface.”

• Gold opens with a bullish gap but trims gains as the US Dollar rebounds and Oil prices stabilize.
• Traders await the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday and US PCE inflation data on Thursday.
• XAU/USD stays range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200, hovering near the 21-day SMA.

Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,073 after briefly climbing above $4,100, up 0.50% on the day.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump is giving negotiations some space while keeping all military options on the table. Tehran also said it would refrain from fresh attacks as long as Washington did the same.

Oil prices opened the week sharply lower on hopes that the pause in hostilities could ease supply risks. However, sellers quickly moved to the sidelines as the geopolitical situation remained fluid. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz had not changed and that the strategic waterway remained closed.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $82.70 per barrel, rebounding from an intraday low of $81.28, but remains down more than 7% on the day.

Gold’s reaction again shows how the metal has decoupled from its traditional safe-haven role since the US-Iran war began, with price action driven largely by the inflationary impact of higher Oil prices and their implications for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.

The Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is the key risk event this week, alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday.

The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but traders still price in a 33% chance of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate increase in September stands near 79%.

The possibility of higher US interest rates remains a major headwind for the non-yielding metal, while the US Dollar continues to benefit from hawkish Fed expectations and the fragile Middle East situation.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.50, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12.

Strategists at OCBC note that “a hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55 [bps] of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027.” In their view, “in this scenario, the USD should remain supported.”

By contrast, OCBC cautions that “a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function,” a misstep that “risks lifting long-end inflation breakevens, a development that would be negative for the USD.”

Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near 21-day SMA

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains rangebound between $4,000 and $4,200, with prices fluctuating around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,068. The near-term outlook is neutral, although the broader bias stays bearish as the metal trades below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,221 and $4,469, respectively.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 47, leaning neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that downside momentum is limited even as the broader structure remains capped by overhead averages.

On the upside, the $4,200 psychological mark and the 50-day SMA at $4,221 form the initial resistance zone. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,468.

Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,069, followed by the $4,000 level. A daily close below this level would expose deeper retracement, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a range, with bulls needing a clear move through $4,222 to regain control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay notes Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope and stressing the move was smaller than April’s. He says MAS is signalling greater concern over inflation risks than growth, with stronger-than-expected H1 2026 growth and forecasts likely to be revised up, while USD/SGD only slipped modestly to around 1.2890.

Second consecutive MAS tightening step

"In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy for the second consecutive meeting. It increased the rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band “very slightly”, with no changes to the centre or width of the band. Importantly, MAS said that the increase was smaller than the tightening in April."

"MAS could have easily left policy unchanged given that inflation remains relatively benign and energy prices have retreated from their April peaks."

"Its decision to act signals that MAS remains more concerned about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to growth."

"Growth was stronger-than-expected in H1 2026 at 6%. The official forecast is likely to be revised up from 2-4% currently."

"MAS maintained its headline and core inflation forecasts at 1.5-2.5% for 2026. USD/SGD fell only modestly to around 1.2890 following the announcement."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)