Forex News
- AUD/USD rises 0.61% to 0.7077 as risk appetite pushes the Dollar lower.
- Break above 0.7122 would expose the yearly high at 0.7147.
- Drop below 0.7000 risks retesting 0.6944 and the 50-day SMA at 0.6904.
The AUD/USD reversed its course, climbing some 0.61% on Wednesday as the US Dollar remains on the backfoot due to an improvement in market mood, sponsored by solid US economic data. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7077, poised to end near the day’s high.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD technical picture remains bullishly biased after the nearly 1% loss on Tuesday, which pushed the Aussie to a fresh four-week low of 0.6944. Despite this, momentum seems constructive as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with the index above its 50-neutral level and aiming higher.
Given the backdrop, the AUD/USD could extend its gains if bull reclaimed the March 3 daily high of 0.7122. A decisive break will expose the yearly high of 0.7147 ahead of 0.7200.
On the downside, the first support is seen at 0.7000. A breach of the latter will expose the March 3 swing log of 0.6944 ahead of the 50-day SMA at 0.6904.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.13% | 0.35% | 0.64% | -0.02% | -0.32% | 0.23% | 1.52% | |
| EUR | -1.13% | -0.78% | -0.49% | -1.14% | -1.44% | -0.90% | 0.38% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | 0.78% | 0.11% | -0.37% | -0.67% | -0.13% | 1.16% | |
| JPY | -0.64% | 0.49% | -0.11% | -0.62% | -0.92% | -0.30% | 0.90% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 1.14% | 0.37% | 0.62% | -0.34% | 0.31% | 1.54% | |
| AUD | 0.32% | 1.44% | 0.67% | 0.92% | 0.34% | 0.54% | 1.85% | |
| NZD | -0.23% | 0.90% | 0.13% | 0.30% | -0.31% | -0.54% | 1.30% | |
| CHF | -1.52% | -0.38% | -1.16% | -0.90% | -1.54% | -1.85% | -1.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/MXN drops 0.74% to 17.56 as improved sentiment lifts the Mexican Peso.
- ISM Services PMI jumps to 56.1 while ADP hiring beats forecasts at 63K.
- Banxico survey sees inflation ending 2026 near 4% with rates projected at 6.50%.
The Mexican Peso recovers some ground on Wednesday due to an improvement in risk appetite even though hostilities in the Middle East, extended for the fifth consecutive day. Solid US economic data was ignored by MXN bulls, as depicted by the USD/MXN pair which trades at 17.56, down 0.74%.
Mexican Peso gains despite strong US data, traders look ahead to key inflation and employment reports
Sentiment turned positive following the release of a solid ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reading in February, which showed an increase in the New Orders sub-component, hitting its highest level since September 2024. New Orders jumped from 53.1 to 58.6, while the Services index expanded from 53.8 to 56.1, crushing forecasts of 53.5.
Earlier, the ADP National Employment Change report for February revealed that private sector hiring rose by 63K up from January’s downward revised 11K, above market estimates of 50K.
Across the southern border, Mexico’s economic docket is absent, with traders eyeing the release of Gross Fixed Investment on March 5, and February’s final Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on March 9.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed its private analyst’s poll, in which most economists expect inflation to end higher this and the following year.
Headline inflation is projected to end at 4% in 2026 with underlying CPI finishing at 4.17% up from 4.11% in the previous poll. Economic growth is expected to rise from 1.5% to 1.8% in 2026 and to remain unchanged in the following year.
The USD/MXN exchange rate is foreseen to end at 18.10, down from 18.50 from the previous survey and Banxico is expected to reduce rates by 50 basis points to 6.50%.
Regarding this, Banxico Deputy Governor Galia Borja said the central bank has room to reduce rates, citing weaker consumer spending, declining investment, and the appreciation of the Mexican Peso, expected to contain inflationary pressures.
Given the backdrop, the USD/MXN is expected to consolidate above/below the 17.50 area, ahead of the release of US employment data on Thursday and Friday.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Downtrend intact unless bulls reclaim 18.00
The USD/MXN technical picture is downward biased, but so far bears seem to loose some strength with the exchange rate sitting above the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 17.25 and 17.50, respectively.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been bullish, after spending below its 50-neutrlal level since the end of November 2025, a sign that sellers are losing some strength.
In addition to this, a break of a resistance trendline drawn from around April’s 2025 highs near 21.07 was broken on March 3, an indication that buyers are gathering some steam.
For a bullish resumption, traders must clear the 100-day SMA at 17.91. Once surpassed up next lies 18.00, followed by the 200-day SMA. Downwards lies the 50- and 20-day SMAs ahead of the 17.00 milestone.
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China’s January-February hard data to show resilience despite soft official PMIs. They forecast solid Industrial Production, a rebound in Retail Sales, and robust Trade growth, while Fixed Asset Investment stabilizes and Real Estate investment continues to contract. Inflation is seen rising modestly, with M2 growth staying elevated and credit momentum easing.
Soft PMIs but solid activity indicators
"China’s official manufacturing PMI fell further to a five-month low of 49 in February from 49.3 in January, partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday disruption."
"We expect industrial production (IP) growth to have remained solid at 4.9% y/y in January-February as production PMI stayed above 50 on average."
"Retail sales growth likely rebounded to 3.4% y/y on the holiday boost."
"The contraction in fixed asset investment (FAI) may have halted as funding for infrastructure projects was likely replenished at the start of the year."
"Trade growth may have remained robust on lowered tariffs and steady global demand for AI-related materials and products."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) March 2026 Beige Book, based on data collected through February 23, showed mixed economic conditions. Seven of twelve districts reported slight to moderate growth, but the number of flat or declining districts rose from four to five. Despite this, most districts held optimistic expectations for slight to moderate growth ahead.
On the cost side, prices rose moderately across most districts, with eight seeing moderate increases and four reporting slight or modest gains. Wages grew at a modest or moderate pace in most districts amid ongoing competition for workers.
Beige Book highlights
- Wages rose at a modest or moderate pace in most districts as firms competed for workers.
- Overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve districts, while the number of districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current period.
- Overall, economic expectations were optimistic, with most districts expecting slight to moderate growth in the coming months.
- Prices increased moderately in recent weeks, with eight districts reporting moderate price growth and four seeing slight or modest increases.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 5:
The US Dollar (USD) eased on Wednesday after a two-day rally drove the US Dollar Index (DXY) near the 100.00 mark. The Greenback ignored the positive employment data and ISM Services PMI as the ongoing war between the US and Iran weights on sentiment. The February ADP Employment Change rose to 63K, up from the forecast of 50K and well above last month’s revised 11K (from 22K). Meanwhile, the February ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released at 56.1, higher than the expected and last month’s report of 53.5 and 53.8, respectively.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) declines near the 98.80 price region, stepping down from modest intraday gains as the United States and Israel attacks on Iran escalate, with the geopolitical crisis pushing economic data to low priority.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.38% | -0.09% | -0.51% | -0.78% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.12% | -0.26% | 0.02% | -0.40% | -0.67% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.40% | -0.11% | -0.53% | -0.79% | -0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.38% | 0.26% | 0.40% | 0.30% | -0.13% | -0.38% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.30% | -0.42% | -0.68% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.51% | 0.40% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.42% | -0.27% | 0.32% | |
| NZD | 0.78% | 0.67% | 0.79% | 0.38% | 0.68% | 0.27% | 0.59% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.21% | -0.20% | 0.10% | -0.32% | -0.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1640 price region, regaining some of its footing during the American session. The January Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) was released at 0.7% MoM, much higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous reading of -0.3%, signaling inflation is trending higher than expected, but still within parameters.
GBP/USD pared losses near the 1.3370 level, trading in a tight range during the American session. The Bank of England (BoE) reduced the odds of a rate cut from 74% to just 25% after the jump in Oil prices.
USD/JPY is trading near the 157.00 price region, slipping as the US Dollar lost ground after climbing for two days in a row.
AUD/USD rises to the 0.7070 price region, recovering all its intraday losses. Investors’ focus now shifts to Australia’s Trade Balance report release in the upcoming Asian session.
Gold is trading at $5,149, trimming back some of Tuesday’s losses but still in the middle ground as investors took on riskier trades in stock markets.
Oil prices stabilized near 74.10 after reaching a peak of $77 on Tuesday, as Iranian forces seized the Straight of Hormuz, cutting off all of Asia’s Oil trade.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, March 5:
- Australian January Trade Balance.
- Eurozone January Retail Sales
- US February Challenger Job Cuts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US flash Nonfarm Productivity
- US flash Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
Friday, March 6:
- Germany January Factory Orders n.s.a.
- Eurozone Employment Change (Q4).
- Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4).
- US February NFP.
- US JanuaryRetail Sales.
- US February Unemployment rate.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The US Dollar Index pulled back toward the 200-day EMA after a sharp geopolitical rally stalls below 100.00.
- ISM services prices paid fell to 63 from 66.6 in February.
- Friday's NFP report is expected to show a sharp slowdown to 59K from January's 130K, alongside retail sales and the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped about 0.18% on Wednesday, settling close to 98.90 after retreating from the 99.68 high printed on Tuesday. The index surged nearly 2% across Monday and Tuesday on safe-haven flows triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, but Wednesday's session saw that bid cool. The broader picture shows the DXY has rallied sharply off the late-January low near 95.56, with two consecutive strong bullish candles at the start of the week pushing price above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since late November.
The geopolitical backdrop continues to dominate. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran entered its fifth day on Wednesday, with casualties mounting and Iran's Revolutionary Guard declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. Oil prices have surged to their highest levels since mid-2025, raising inflation concerns and complicating the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook.
Wednesday's data offered mixed signals: the ADP employment report printed 63K in February against a 50K consensus, while the ISM services PMI jumped to 56.1, well above the 53.5 forecast. The prices paid component, however, eased to 63 from 66.6, tempering some of the inflation anxiety. The Beige Book and a public appearance from the Fed's Miran rounded out the session. Attention now turns to Thursday's jobless claims and productivity data and Friday's heavyweight Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where consensus expects just 59K jobs added, down sharply from January's 130K print.
DXY daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 98.82. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price rebounds above the rising 50-day exponential moving average and holds just under the 200-day average, signaling recovery within a broader consolidation. The 50-day EMA has turned higher again, underlining emerging upside pressure after the late-month bounce, while the 200-day EMA near current levels caps initial gains and defines the upper boundary of the immediate range. Stochastic hovers in elevated territory but has rolled over from overbought conditions, suggesting slowing momentum rather than an outright reversal at this stage.
Immediate support is at the 50-day EMA around 97.95, where a daily close below would expose the late pullback area near 97.60 and, if broken, the 96.90 region as a deeper downside objective. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 200-day EMA around 98.70–98.75, with a sustained break opening the way toward the recent swing high near 99.05. As long as price holds above the 50-day average, dips are likely to be treated as pauses within a developing upward phase toward the upper resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- New Zealand Dollar posted its strongest single-session gain in weeks as risk appetite stabilizes and the US Dollar gives back some of its safe-haven premium.
- The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% in February, with new Governor Breman signaling no urgency to hike, pushing market pricing for the first increase out to December at the earliest.
- Friday's US NFP is expected to show just 59K jobs added in February, down sharply from January's 130K, alongside retail sales data and a batch of Fed speeches.
NZD/USD jumps about 0.73% on Wednesday, rallying sharply to around 0.5940 at the time of writing in a session that saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) top the currency heatmap against every major counterpart. The bounce comes after the pair dipped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier in the week on safe-haven flows tied to the Middle East conflict, with Tuesday's long lower shadow near 0.5860 hinting at buying interest around the 200-day EMA. The broader structure since the January lows close to 0.5710 is still one of higher lows, but the February peak near 0.6090 remains a distant ceiling.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) February hold at 2.25% came with a dovish lean from Governor Anna Breman, who said the economy has room to recover without triggering excessive inflation. Market pricing for a first rate hike has slipped to December at the earliest, well behind what was priced before the meeting, and the policy contrast with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which hiked to 3.85% in February, continues to weigh on the Kiwi relative to the Australian Dollar. GBP/NZD also fell 0.82% on the session, reflecting broad New Zealand Dollar strength, though the NZD's Oil-import sensitivity keeps it vulnerable if Middle East hostilities escalate further.
On the US Dollar (USD) side, the Greenback gave back some of its sharp geopolitical gains after Wednesday's data painted a mixed picture. February's ADP employment report printed 63K, beating the 50K consensus but still modest in absolute terms, while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surged to 56.1, well above the 53.5 forecast. The prices paid sub-index, however, fell to 63 from 66.6, offering a small relief on the inflation front. Focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), where consensus expects just 59K jobs added in February, and the accompanying retail sales data, which are forecast flat after January's 0.3% decline.
NZD/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5940. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price slips back toward last week’s lows while remaining above the rising 50- and 200-day EMAs near 0.5920 and 0.5880, which still frame a broader recovery structure. The Stochastic oscillator has cooled from overbought extremes to the low-30s, indicating fading upside momentum and leaving room for further downside pressure before conditions become oversold, suggesting sellers retain the near-term initiative within an otherwise improving medium-term backdrop.
Immediate support emerges at 0.5920, where the 50-day EMA converges with recent closing lows, followed by 0.5890 ahead of the 200-day EMA around 0.5880, a zone that should act as a pivotal floor to preserve the broader upturn. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 0.5990, guarding the 0.6050 area defined by last month’s highs, with a daily close above this band needed to revive bullish momentum and reopen the path toward the 0.6100 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- USD/CHF falls 0.25% as rejection at 50-day SMA near 0.7819 halts rebound.
- A break above 0.7878 would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7909.
- A drop below 0.7777 could open the door to 0.7700 and 0.7660 support.
USD/CHF retreats on Wednesday, down by 0.25% as the pair failed to post a daily close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7819. The Greenback trimmed some of its Wednesday’s gains on risk aversion. The pair trades below the 0.7800 figure, poised to remain glued to 'the figure' waiting for a fresh catalyst.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action suggests the USD/CHF downtrend remains in place, unless buyers push prices higher. The successive series of lower highs and lower lows is intact, but a challenge to the Tuesday daily high of 0.7878 would open the door to test immediate resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7909.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, but it has turned downwards, aiming for the RSI’s neutral level. This and USD/CHF’s second daily close below the 50-day SMA clears the path for a pullback.
On the downside, if the pair hurdles the Tuesday low of 0.7784, sellers could opt to challenge the 0.7700 figure. On further weakness, a key support trendline emerges at around 0.7660-0.7680.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.20% | 0.49% | 0.71% | 0.15% | -0.31% | 0.28% | 1.60% | |
| EUR | -1.20% | -0.72% | -0.51% | -1.04% | -1.49% | -0.88% | 0.39% | |
| GBP | -0.49% | 0.72% | 0.00% | -0.33% | -0.79% | -0.18% | 1.10% | |
| JPY | -0.71% | 0.51% | 0.00% | -0.50% | -0.96% | -0.27% | 0.92% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 1.04% | 0.33% | 0.50% | -0.50% | 0.22% | 1.43% | |
| AUD | 0.31% | 1.49% | 0.79% | 0.96% | 0.50% | 0.61% | 1.91% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.27% | -0.22% | -0.61% | 1.29% | |
| CHF | -1.60% | -0.39% | -1.10% | -0.92% | -1.43% | -1.91% | -1.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- WTI pulls back after touching a one-year high near $77.20 on Tuesday.
- Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.
- Technically, WTI maintains a bullish structure as RSI nears overbought levels while MACD remains in positive territory.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trims part of its intraday gains on Wednesday as traders assess geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $74.32 after briefly reaching a one-year high of $77.20 on Tuesday.
The pullback comes after a New York Times report suggested that Iranian operatives had signalled openness to discussing terms to end the war. However, crude prices remain elevated, up nearly 10% this week, amid ongoing disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump tried to calm markets, saying the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible” if necessary. In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump added that Washington would provide political risk insurance for ships traveling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 3.475 million barrels last week, above expectations of 2.2 million barrels, though the increase was far smaller than the previous 15.989 million-barrel build. The report had little impact on prices as markets continued to focus on supply disruptions in the Middle East.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows WTI maintaining a steady uptrend, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since bottoming at $54.88 on December 16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 77, pointing to overbought conditions while still reflecting strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line and firmly in positive territory, with the histogram continuing to expand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at Tuesday’s peak near $77.20. A break above this level could bring the $79.00-$80.00 resistance zone, marked by the January 15, 2025, high near $79.37. A sustained move above this zone may open the door for a further extension toward the $85.00 handle.
On the downside, initial support emerges in the $69.00-$70.00 zone. A break below this area could expose the 21-day SMA near $65.86, followed by the 50-day SMA around $62.30.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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