Forex News
- A signed ceasefire has done little to align the US and Iranian accounts of the deal.
- The sharpest gaps sit over the Strait of Hormuz, unfrozen Iranian funds, and Lebanon.
The 60-day framework that Trump and Iran's president signed at Versailles on June 17 was meant to wind the war down and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A week on, the two capitals cannot agree on what the document actually says. Trump speaks of control and conditions he sets; Tehran speaks of sovereignty and obligations it never accepted.
The strait nobody agrees they control
Trump insists Washington holds total command of the Strait, says Crude Oil is again pouring through it, and warns he could restart the blockade at will. Tehran describes the opposite: a communication line on ship passage to avoid conflict between equals, not a waterway under US command. Iran briefly closed the Strait on June 20; Washington said it never stopped.
The money with strings only one side sees
Trump frames the unfrozen Iranian funds as money meant to feed ordinary Iranians, a humanitarian condition he treats as settled. Iran's central bank disputes that: the funds need not go only to essential goods; Tehran is not obliged to buy US farm inputs. On the most concrete term in the deal, the two sides describe different agreements.
The real overlap is thin: a Hormuz deconfliction line and a shared pledge on Lebanon's territorial integrity, both already fraying. Israeli strikes on south Lebanon have continued past the latest ceasefire; Iran blames Washington; Trump threatens to resume attacks if Tehran does not rein in Hezbollah. The bias is to treat the calm as tactical, not structural, and to read a durable peace as the press release rather than the transcript.
Trump highlights
- Trump: Could restart blockade quickly if need be.
- Trump: As long as Iran respects the US, we are not going to have any trouble.
- Trump: We have total control of the Strait.
- Trump on Defense Contractors: Stock buybacks not allowed.
- Trump on Israel and Lebanon: We'll take a look at it, I get problems solved fast, including with Netanyahu.
- Trump: If Iran doesn't stick to the agreement, I will do what I have to do.
- Trump on the Economy: We have the opposite of a depression, oil prices are way down
- Trump: Iran is supposed to use money to buy food for its people
- Trump: A lot of oil is pouring out of the Hormuz Strait.
- Trump: Iran war is, in its own way, working out very well.
Iran highlights
- Iran's Top Negotiator: We have agreed to have a communication line regarding ship passage in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid conflict.
- Iran's Top Negotiator: Based on talks in Switzerland, both the US and Iran would guarantee the territorial integrity of Lebanon.
- Iran's Central Bank Governor: Remaining frozen funds will not necessarily be used solely for essential goods, and that iran will be able to purchase other non-sanctioned goods - Tasnim News Agency
- Iran's Central Bank Governor: Tehran not obliged to purchase agricultural inputs from US under existing agreements - Tasnim News Agency
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, June 23:
The US Dollar (USD) traded near the 101.00 level on a positive note on Monday, near the 13-month high of 101.13 reached on Friday, as investors balanced softer Oil prices, renewed hopes for peace between the United States (US) and Iran, and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could remain restrictive for longer.
Markets are also looking ahead to Thursday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could shape expectations for the next policy move.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.37% | -0.12% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.40% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.37% | -0.49% | -0.20% | -0.33% | -0.21% | 0.06% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.49% | 0.30% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.53% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | 0.20% | -0.30% | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.33% | -0.19% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.32% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | 0.21% | -0.26% | 0.05% | -0.05% | 0.29% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.06% | -0.53% | -0.22% | -0.32% | -0.29% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | 0.20% | -0.29% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.06% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell near 1.1430 as the Euro (EUR) failed to hold firm following a weak Consumer Confidence report released on Monday. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that policymakers are not seeing signs that the latest inflation shock requires a more aggressive policy response, while markets continue to assess the ECB’s latest inflation projections after the central bank recently said headline inflation is expected to average 3% in 2026.
GBP/USD traded with a slightly positive tone near 1.3250 as the Pound Sterling (GBP) remained steady despite political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) following the Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation announcement. Investors are likely to focus on upcoming Bank of England (BoE) commentary this week, with BoE officials Taylor and Dhingra due to speak on Tuesday and Breeden also scheduled for Wednesday.
USD/JPY hovered near intervention levels almost all day, trading near 161.60 after almost surpassing a four-decade high of 162.00 earlier in the session as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to struggle against the Greenback’s yield advantage. Attention now turns to upcoming Japanese indicators later in the week, including Leading Indicators and Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI).
AUD/USD remained under pressure near 0.7000 amid fragile risk sentiment, with traders looking ahead to Australian inflation data on Wednesday and jobs figures on Thursday. Those releases could be decisive for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations, as markets have recently shifted between pricing in a pause and a more cautious policy path.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell sharply near $74.20 per barrel as optimism around US-Iran peace talks reduced some geopolitical risk premium. Oil prices dropped more than 3% as talks in Switzerland suggested a possible deal that could bring fresh Iranian barrels back into the market.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovered from a one-week low as lower Oil prices eased inflation concerns, while uncertainty around US policy and geopolitical risks kept demand for the metal alive. Spot Gold rose 0.84% to $4,190 per troy ounce, although expectations for tighter Fed policy limited the upside.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, June 23:
- US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- Global Flash PMIs
Wednesday, June 24:
- Australian CPI
- BoJ Summary of Opinions
- BoC Summary of Deliberations
Thursday, June 25:
- US PCE
- US GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Australian Jobs data
Friday, June 26:
- Tokyo CPI
- Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
- US-Iran talks improve sentiment, reducing demand for safe havens.
- Fed’s hawkish tilt lifts the US Dollar against low-yielding Franc.
- SNB signals readiness to curb excessive Swissie strength.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) on Monday as risk appetite improves amid the start of US-Iran talks, which US Vice President JD Vance deemed positive.
Also, a hawkish tilt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is ready to weaken the Franc, keeps the Swissie pressured throughout the day. USD/CHF rises for the fourth consecutive day and remains near its highest level since last November.
Swissie falls as risk appetite improves and policy pressure builds
On Wednesday, the Fed held its last monetary policy meeting, deciding to keep rates unchanged but hinting that nearly half of its members favor further tightening, spurred by the jump in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. Although negotiations are ongoing, the impact pushed inflation above the 3% threshold.
Consequently, the newly appointed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, reiterated the central bank’s commitment to price stability, making it a priority for the US institution.
This drove USD/CHF higher, along with the SNB’s stance, which stated that it is ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if the CHF appreciates sharply.
The SNB’s decision was taken last week, when it kept rates at 0% and hinted that it is willing to act against a “rapid and excessive appreciation” of the Franc, which makes Swiss exports more expensive in foreign currencies.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
The USD/CHF daily chart shows the pair remains upward-biased after reaching the invested head-and-shoulders pattern objective of 0.8042, poised to clear 0.8100 as it ends the day near 0.8090. A breach of the latter will expose the 0.8100 mark, then the August 1, 2025, high at 0.8172, and finally 0.8200.
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF cross-pair is also bullish-biased after clearing the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.9223, which opened the door for further upside to two-month highs at 0.9266. A breach of the latter will expose the January 21 swing high of 0.9307, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.9349.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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