Forex News
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues EUR/USD is likely to stay range-bound as geopolitical risks and US policy uncertainty offset economic fundamentals. He notes two-year rate differentials point to EUR/USD near 1.14–1.17, while consensus GDP suggests 1.14 is appropriate. However, Trump’s preference for a weaker Dollar and lower rates supports a softer Dollar and potential return to 1.20.
Rates, growth and policy pull cross
"Risk aversion is likely to keep FX volatility down and G10 pairs in tight ranges, starting with EUR/USD."
"Two-year rates imply that EUR/USD ‘ought’ to be at 1.14 and if consensus rates forecasts are right, will head to 1.17 in the coming year."
"Consensus GDP forecasts suggest 1.14 would be a more appropriate level, which is where we put our end-year forecast before everything got complicated."
"President Trump’s desire for a weaker dollar, and his desire for lower rates regardless of what growth and inflation are doing, play a part in keeping the dollar down."
"Given that every time the market is optimistic that further escalation is unlikely, the dollar weakens, it still seems likely that we will see EUR/USD 1.20 again, and a generally weaker dollar, in the coming weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz assess the implications of Kevin Warsh’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair for US monetary policy. They argue that Warsh’s criticism of recent Fed policy and focus on AI-driven disinflation could threaten Fed independence and lead to overly aggressive rate cuts over time, but they still expect the next Fed move only toward year-end.
Warsh, Fed independence and rate outlook
"We are also not quite as optimistic as Warsh that AI will significantly lower inflation. We therefore remain generally skeptical that Warsh can defend the Fed’s independence from Trump. Rather, the central bank is likely to cut interest rates more aggressively than appropriate in the medium term."
"Even if Warsh were to take over as chair soon, it is by no means clear whether the Fed would then comply with Trump’s demand for rapid interest rate cuts. After all, inflation has picked up again in the wake of the war against Iran, so the return of the inflation rate to the 2% target is likely to be further delayed."
"As chairman, Warsh would face major difficulties in securing a majority for an interest rate cut at his first meeting in June. If rates remain unchanged, Warsh would likely very quickly come under the president’s scrutiny, putting him at risk of facing the same difficulties with Trump as Powell did before him."
"We stand by our forecast that the Fed will likely not be able to deliver the next interest rate move until toward the end of the year. After all, Warsh will need some time to assert himself within the Fed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that USD/JPY climbed to 159.37 as the Dollar strengthened. They see scope for a retest of 159.65, with limited follow-through above that level, and expect a broader 157.55–160.50 range. Longer term, a move above 159.45 is possible but unlikely to challenge 162.00.
Dollar-Yen holds near upper band
"24-HOUR VIEW: Subsequent to Monday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that “momentum indicators are mostly flat,” and we expected USD to “trade between 158.50 and 159.20.” Our view was incorrect, as after dipping to 158.66, USD rose and reached a high of 159.64 in the late NY session. USD pulled back from the high and closed at 159.37 (+0.37%). Despite the relatively sharp rise, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum. However, there is scope for USD to retest the 159.65 level. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 159.00, followed by 158.75."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from Monday (20 Apr, spot at 159.10) still stands. As highlighted, after the recent choppy price action, “we are not able to derive much from the volatile price action.” We also indicated that “for the time being, USD could trade between 157.55 and 160.50.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD trades calmly at around 1.1745 while the US-Iran ceasefire extension keeps the US Dollar under slight pressure.
- US President Trump holds off on attacks on Iran until it receives a unified proposal.
- EUR/USD continues to face pressure near the 61.8% Fibo retracement around 1.1825.
The EUR/USD pair trades flat at around 1.1745 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) edges lower amid hopes of a prolonged standoff between the United States (US) and Iran.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally down to near 98.30.
The announcement of the ceasefire extension by United States (US) President Donald Trump with Iran has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire for an indefinite period, through a post on Truth Social, stating that the military department will hold their attacks on Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Euro (EUR) will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on April 30.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades flat at around 1.1745, holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1694 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing at 1.1745.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at around 57 stays comfortably in positive territory, suggesting persistent upside momentum while leaving room before any overbought conditions emerge.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1825, followed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.1938, with the cycle high at 1.2082 acting as a more distant bullish target. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at 1.1694; a downside move below the average would lead to a deeper pullback towards the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666, while 1.1567 and 1.1408 remain more remote downside levels within the broader bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
BNY’s Bob Savage notes that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index has slipped below trend, signaling weaker growth ahead as higher rates and the Middle East energy shock weigh on activity. However, iFlow shows a recent surge in interest in AUD/USD, reflecting a positive mix of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stance and favorable terms of trade from the conflict-driven commodity backdrop.
Below-trend growth with supportive flows
"Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index six-month annualized growth rate fell to -0.13% in March 2026 from +0.05% in February, marking the first below-trend reading since August 2025."
"The decline from +0.31% in October 2025 reflects weakening economic momentum, driven by rising interest rates and the global energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict."
"The index signals below-trend growth for the remainder of 2026, indicating a slowdown in economic activity relative to trend three to nine months ahead."
"iFlow indicates a recent surge in interest in AUD/USD amid the recovery in risk appetite, underscoring a positive combination of a hawkish RBA along with a positive terms-of-trade shock for Australia due to the conflict."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD trades around 1.3515 on Wednesday, posting a modest 0.06% daily gain after the latest UK inflation figures.
- UK headline inflation accelerates in March, in line with expectations, while core inflation slows slightly.
- Strong US Retail Sales data support the US Dollar and limit the upside for the Pound Sterling.
GBP/USD trades around 1.3515 on Wednesday, gaining a modest 0.06% at the time of writing, as investors digest the latest inflation figures from the United Kingdom (UK) and assess the outlook for monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.
Data released earlier by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.3% YoY in March, matching market expectations and rising from 3% in February. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.7%, above forecasts of 0.6% and marking its strongest rise in nearly a year.
However, underlying price pressures showed some signs of easing. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 3.1% YoY, slightly below the 3.2% expected.
The combination of higher headline inflation and softer underlying measures leaves the policy outlook relatively balanced. While rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East have pushed overall prices higher, the moderation in core inflation could allow the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at the upcoming April 30 meeting.
Beyond inflation, producer and retail price data also surprised to the upside. The Input Producer Prices Index jumped 4.4% MoM in March and 5.4% on a yearly basis, while retail prices increased by 0.8% MoM and 4.1% compared with a year earlier, both exceeding market expectations.
The geopolitical environment remains another key driver for currency markets. Although United States (US) President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire related to tensions involving Iran, uncertainty persists after the collapse of a planned round of negotiations. Washington continues to maintain a blockade on Iranian vessels, while Tehran has warned of possible retaliation, keeping risk sentiment fragile.
At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) is finding support from strong domestic economic data. The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that Retail Sales rose by 1.7% MoM in March, significantly above expectations of 1.4% and accelerating from February’s revised 0.7% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 4%, matching the previous reading.
In addition, remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh helped reassure markets about the independence of the central bank’s policy decisions, which further supported the US Dollar.
Looking ahead, investors are expected to remain cautious in the coming days as several key UK indicators are scheduled for release. The preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for April are due on Thursday, followed by the March Retail Sales report on Friday, both of which could generate additional volatility for the Pound Sterling (GBP).
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.31% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | -0.00% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.29% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.27% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.01% | -0.21% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.24% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.05% | -0.20% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.21% | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.36% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Wednesday that an interest rate hike this year cannot be ruled out. However, he remains in favor that the central bank should not cut interest rates in the policy announcement on April 30.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact of ECB Simkus' comments on the Euro (EUR). As of writing, EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1745.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that United Kingdom (UK) inflation remains persistently above target, limiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) ability to ignore the energy shock. However, he argues current BoE rate hike expectations are excessive given estimated economic slack. Following the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, he expects GBP/USD to remain confined to a 1.3400–1.3700 range in the near term.
BOE pricing seen as too aggressive
"Persistently above target UK inflation leaves the BoE with little room to look through the energy shock. In line with consensus, headline inflation quickened to 3.3% y/y vs. 3.0% in February on higher prices for motor fuels. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) unexpectedly slowed to 3.1% y/y (consensus: 3.2%) vs. 3.2% in February and services inflation rose to 4.5% y/y (consensus: 4.3%) vs. 4.3% in February."
"The UK swaps curve adjusted higher following the CPI report to imply greater odds of nearly 50bps of rate hikes over the next twelve months.BoE rate hike bets are still too rich in our view given excess slack in the economy."
"The BoE estimates a negative output gap of -1% of GDP in 2026."
"GBP/USD will likely trade within a 1.3400 and 1.3700 range in the near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights mounting European energy and geopolitical pressures, including disrupted Oil flows via Druzhba and potential EU financing for Ukraine. The €90bn EU loan is expected to fund Western and domestic weaponry, while Brussels considers joint gas buying and faces airline fuel constraints. These dynamics underscore persistent risks for Euro-area growth and the Euro’s macro backdrop rather than immediate FX direction.
Ukraine support and energy risks weigh
"Things are also fluid --but not flowing-- on other geopolitical fronts. Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again – as Russia halted Kazakhstan's oil flows to Germany via it, worsening its energy crisis."
"The €90bn EU loan to Ukraine may now proceed, with Kyiv expected to spend the bulk of it on US Patriots, UK Storm Shadows and its own drones – which will be used to hit Russian oil refineries based on the recent heuristic. Yet Ukraine is reportedly proposing naming part of the disputed Donbas region to ‘Donnyland’ in Trump’s honour, not Von der Leyen-land."
"Meanwhile, as the Middle East and Russian energy complexes are mired in war, a key trader warns of a looming global food shock due to a squeeze on fertilisers; the EU is looking to revive joint gas buying as energy fears mount, which critics say will make little difference; Brussels said we should keep flying despite a looming fuel shortage as “Fears of widespread cancellations are overblown” – as Lufthansa axed 20,000 ‘unprofitable’ flights to save jet fuel; and EU lawmakers urged the Parliament to halt its monthly trip to Strasbourg over energy costs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver trims losses after a two-day reversal, but remains capped below $78.50.
- Fading hopes about a positive outcome of the US-Iran negotiations underpin the US Dollar.
- XAG/USD has broken the bottom of the ascending channel.
Silver (XAG/USD) nudges higher on Wednesday, but remains at the lower range of Tuesday’s trading, consolidating below $78.00 and with the previous support area of $78.50 capping upside attempts, for now.
Precious metals hover near recent lows, with investors in a “wait-and-see” stance, as the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, despite the ceasefire extension announced on Tuesday by US President Donald Trump. The US maintains the blockade of Iranian ports, which is considered a violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian authorities, while reports of attacks by Iranian forces on ships attempting to cross the waterway add pressure on an already-strained peace process.
In the US, the bright Retail Sales data released on Tuesday and the testimony of the Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, provided a fresh boost to the US Dollar. The former Fed governor dismissed criticism of being a puppet of the White House and underscored the importance of the central bank’s independence in setting monetary policy. The US Dollar reacted positively to the event.
Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at $77.75, with bearish pressure mounting, after breaking the bottom of the ascending channel from late March lows on Tuesday. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart support the bearish view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory, suggesting that sellers are gaining control.
On the topside, bulls remain capped below the April 19 low, at the $78.50 area. Further up, the confluence of the reverse trendline, now at $80.65, and the April 20 high, near $80.60, are lilely to pose a significant resistance.
Bears, however, need to break Tuesday's lows around $75.40 to shift the focus towards the mid-April lows around $72.60, ahead of the $70.00 psychological area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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