Forex News
- Silver appreciates to levels above $59.00 after bouncing from Monday's low of $56.57.
- Precious metals are picking up as investors cling to hopes of a peace deal on Iran.
- XAG/USD is trading halfway through the last four weeks' range.
Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday. Investors’ hopes of a negotiated end to Iran’s war are providing a mild appetite for risk, and buoying precious metals, although the US Dollar Index (USD) has picked up from lows, which might keep a lid on Silver’s rally.
US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that this is the “last chance” for Iran to sign a good peace deal with the United States, but Tehran has denied any talks with the US or plans to hold them. Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits remains at very low levels, and reports of an attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman complicate matters further.
Technical Analysis: Silver appreciates within range
XAG/USD trades at $59.01, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias with momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart turning positive. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the zero line, suggesting that buyers are taking control.
Price action, however, remains within the mid-ranges of the last four weeks' horizontal channel. Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the $59.30 area (July 29, 30 highs) and at the $60.75-$60.90 area (July 10, 22 highs) ahead of the key resistance at the July 6 high of 63.28
On the downside, immediate support is at the $56.50 area, which capped bears last week. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the key support at the mid-July lows of $54.77.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights EUR/USD’s recent sharp rise and subsequent consolidation after a failed attempt to sustain gains above 1.1558. Intraday, the Euro is expected to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540, while a close above 1.1565 could open the way toward 1.1600. Longer term, a break of 1.1390/1.1410 targets 1.1210.
Range trade while eyeing 1.1565
"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply. When EUR was at 1.1530 yesterday, we highlighted that it “could continue to rebound but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance.” We added, “to keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510.” Our view did not materialise, as EUR rose briefly to 1.1558, fell to 1.1499 and then closed at 1.1507 (-0.17%). The current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR rose sharply and closed higher by 1.41% last week. Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated the following: “The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.1455 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the ongoing geopolitical crisis continues to aggravate the biggest supply shock in history. Nasser added that the world would need 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels a day to replenish depleted inventories if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for almost 20% of global energy supply, were open today.
Additional remarks
An average of 11 million barrels of liquids supply removed each day in the face of resilient.
World has lost over 2.6 billion barrels of oil destined to a number of critical industries as a result of crisis.
Aramco's east-west pipeline and global inventories have helped to alleviate supply shock, lowering net loss to around 1.8 billion barrels.
There is a disconnect between futures and physical markets as evident from the strong refining margins that reflect refined product market tightness.
Global refining system is stretched heavily.
If refineries were to suffer any major unplanned or prolonged shutdown the global energy supply system could face more severe pressure.
Countries in Asia have already been affected, with the region's crude oil imports reduced by around 6 million barrels a day at the peak of the crisis.
Beyond refining, current trade flows through the strait of Hormuz are at a tenth of pre-conflict levels and the world will continue to lose more than 100 million barrels for each week the strait is closed.
If strait were open today it would take up to 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels a day to replenish depleted inventories.
Continues to hope for a resolution that restores normal shipping and stabilizes the market but normalization will take time.
No material or impact on our capabilities even after the July attacks.
We will continue to capitalize on all export routes, Bab el Mandab, Suez canal, summed pipeline and Hormuz.
Market reaction
A slight positive move is seen in the WTI Oil price following remarks from Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 1% higher at around $79.50.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD strengthens to around 1.4050 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Trump said talks with Iran are underway, while Tehran denies US negotiations.
- Traders brace for the US and Canadian employment data, which are due later on Friday.
The USD/CAD pair gains ground to near 1.4050 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders continue to weigh the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. The US JOLTS Job Openings data is due later on Tuesday. On Friday, the US and Canadian July employment reports will be the highlights.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump claimed talks with Iran are ongoing, saying this is Tehran’s “last chance to sign a good document”. Trump added that he expected negotiations to begin in the next day or two to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and create a pathway for Iran to address the US’s concerns about its nuclear programme.
Nonetheless, Tehran denied that talks with the US were taking place. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated that the country’s current focus was on negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.
Any signs of renewed tensions between the US and Iran could boost crude oil prices and support the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
The US July employment data on Friday will be closely watched as it might offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next policy move. A stronger-than-expected outcome would reinforce higher-for-longer US rate bets and underpin the Greenback. Markets have priced in nearly a 64.7% odds of a rate hike in September, down from about 77% before the July Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Canadian Dollar gains capped as USD/CAD stalls near 1.40
Analysts at Scotiabank note that the Canadian Dollar has drawn support from a "generally softer USD undertone" that has developed over the past couple of sessions. However, they highlight that the CAD is "having some trouble progressing through the 1.40 area" in USD/CAD, underscoring that recent gains remain constrained despite the more favorable US Dollar backdrop.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD keeps a bullish vibe in the near term
In the daily chart, USD/CAD holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend supported despite a moderation in momentum. Price sits just under the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period SMA, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 45.9 has eased back toward neutral territory, suggesting the recent overbought phase has dissipated without triggering a deeper correction so far.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the Bollinger middle band near 1.4085, with a stronger cap at the Bollinger upper band around 1.4182. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the lower Bollinger band at 1.3985, ahead of the more strategic floor at the 100-day SMA around 1.3907, where buyers would be expected to defend the prevailing bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- GBP/USD falls to near 1.3420 as the British Pound remains weak and the US Dollar extends its recovery.
- Investors await key US economic releases, notably the US NFP data for July.
- BoE’s Bailey didn’t want the public to have an impression that the central bank is edging towards a hike.
The British pound (GBP) faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.12% | -0.22% | 0.13% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.36% | 0.08% | -0.26% | 0.08% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.32% | 0.06% | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.35% | -0.36% | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.58% | -0.27% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.25% | -0.33% | -0.01% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.29% | 0.58% | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.27% | 0.01% | -0.33% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.11% | -0.19% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Pound struggles for support as BoE hawkish split meets dovish Bailey tone
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that “GBP net shorts bounced higher last week ahead of the BoE policy meeting,” underscoring renewed speculative pressure on the Pound. They note that, “despite a more hawkish voting split than the market had expected from the MPC, Governor Bailey’s tone was dovish,” which in their view “suggest[ed] little support for the pound from the BoE.” This combination of positioning and communication leaves Sterling lacking clear policy backing despite the ostensibly firmer stance implied by the vote split.
In BoE Bailey’s last week's press conference, he said, “Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike, because frankly, there’s nothing in what I said, and I think any of us have said, along those lines,” Reuters reported.
The selling pressure in the GBP/USD pair is also driven by the higher US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.05. The USD Index recovered sharply on Monday after posting a fresh two-week high at 99.42.
The Greenback extends Monday’s recovery further as investors turn cautious ahead of key United States (US) economic releases.
Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July on Friday to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. Fed’s new policy “say no to so-called forward-guidance” has increased investors’ dependency on economic releases to project the Fed’s next policy move.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data is expected to arrive at 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.3423, but is holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3389 and retaining a mildly bullish near-term bias. The pair has reclaimed short-term trend support, while the downward resistance trend line, with a key break reference at 1.3473, now caps the topside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 54 leans constructive without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting scope for further gains while acknowledging nearby overhead supply.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the trend-line break area near 1.3473, ahead of the psychological level at 13500. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.3389, which should act as a cushion on pullbacks; a daily close back below this level would weaken the current bullish tone and expose it to the July 28 low at 1.3274.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Swiss CPI drops to 0.4%, signaling minimal energy cost pass-through.
- SNB Monetary policy projected to remain unchanged through the end of the year.
- Markets price in a 65% chance of a September 25-bps rate increase.
USD/CHF moves little after two days of gains, trading around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair may appreciate further as the Swiss Franc (CHF) faces headwinds from easing domestic inflation.
Swiss CPI slowed to 0.4% in July, down from 0.5% in the previous month to hit its lowest level in four months. This slowdown underscores a limited pass-through from higher geopolitical energy prices, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) expectations of a modest near-term inflation pickup following its decision to hold policy rates at 0%.
Franc under pressure as SNB keeps rates at zero
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that "Swiss July CPI stays muted," underscoring the absence of inflationary pressure in the economy. In their view, the "bottom line" is that the SNB "has plenty of room to keep rates at 0.00% for some time, which is an ongoing drag for CHF." They note that against this backdrop of subdued price dynamics and a firmly anchored policy rate, "CHF is the worst performing G10 currency so far this quarter."
Looking ahead, the SNB is anticipated to keep borrowing costs unchanged through year-end; additional rate cuts remain a contingency plan rather than a base case, particularly given the absence of severe stress within the Swiss banking sector.
Meanwhile, price action in the pair remains muted as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes amid ongoing diplomatic uncertainty. Tensions rose after US President Donald Trump characterized his offer for discussions with Iran as a "last chance," following his decision to call off a major military strike. Iranian leadership swiftly dismissed the proposal, with General Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, rejecting the conditions and asserting that Iran will not permit a second corridor in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, market participants are continuing to recalibrate their monetary policy expectations following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady in July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in roughly a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- WTI gains some positive traction on Tuesday following the previous day’s bearish gap opening.
- The uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and Hormuz risks acts as a tailwind for the commodity.
- The technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets on the black liquid.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – builds on the previous day's modest bounce from levels just below the mid-$77.00s and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The commodity climbs to a fresh daily high in the last hour, with bulls now eyeing a move beyond the $80.00 psychological mark amid the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks.
Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump, who had cited the resumption of bilateral talks as justification for calling off attacks over the weekend. Adding to this, reported drone attacks on a US military base in Kuwait temper hopes for a deal between the US and Iran. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz fuels concerns regarding global energy supplies and pushes crude oil prices higher.
From a technical perspective, the bearish gap opening on Monday stalled ahead of the $76.60 confluence. The said area comprises the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the move up witnessed in July and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 45, hinting at a lack of strong directional momentum for now.
Hence, any further move higher would face first resistance at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $82.64, ahead of the next barrier at the 23.6% retracement near $86.32, where profit-taking could emerge if the current recovery extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at the $76.65-$76.60 confluence. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move.
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- EUR/USD trades flat near 1.1505 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Hot Eurozone inflation report adds to an already strong case for another ECB rate hike.
- Traders await the US JOLTS Job Openings data on Tuesday ahead of the July employment report.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1505 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of the US JOLTS Job Openings data, which is due on Tuesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the crucial US July jobs report.
Eurozone inflation ticked up in July, bolstering the case for a rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB). The headline Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in July from 2.8% in June, in line with expectations, Eurostat data showed last week. Meanwhile, the core Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% YoY in July versus 2.4% prior, above the consensus of 2.4%.
Financial markets are betting on more than two ECB rate hikes, with moves fully priced in by October and April, according to Reuters.
The US employment data will be the highlight later on Friday, which could offer some hints about the health of the labour market and US interest rate path. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 83,000 in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to rise to 4.3% during the same period. In case of stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the Greenback in the near term.
Markets have priced in nearly a 64.7% chance of a US rate hike in September, down from about 77% before the July Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Fed decision seen as key driver for EUR/USD direction into September
Strategists at ING emphasise that the path for EUR/USD in the coming weeks hinges largely on the Federal Reserve. They argue that “the bigger and more lasting driver of the EUR/USD trend will be the Fed's September decision,” which “remains unresolved,” leaving this week’s US data as a crucial catalyst. ING notes that the incoming figures will “have a big say if we end the week pressing 1.1615/20 resistance or trading back below 1.15,” underscoring how sensitive the pair remains to shifts in Fed expectations.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains capped below the key 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price holds above the 20-day Bollinger SMA, but proximity to the upper Bollinger band suggests upside attempts are constrained within a tightening volatility envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.9 stays below overbought territory, hinting at fading bullish momentum rather than a decisive trend reversal.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band near 1.1535, ahead of the more significant 100-day SMA barrier at 1.1570, which continues to define the broader bearish cap on the pair. On the downside, initial support emerges at the current price pivot zone around 1.1510, followed by the mid-Bollinger baseline at 1.1435, while a deeper slide would expose the lower Bollinger band support near 1.1335.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/IDR rises as the Indonesian Rupiah weakens under pressure from geopolitical instability and energy market volatility.
- Indonesia faces near-term twin-deficit risks, though downstream investments and export security initiatives should strengthen long-term resilience.
- Markets are pricing in a nearly 65% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September.
USD/IDR halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 18,090 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair is gaining upward momentum as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces persistent pressure.
According to UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, Indonesia's external position remains particularly vulnerable to ongoing geopolitical instability and energy market volatility. While the nation's downstream nickel initiatives and industrialization efforts continue to bolster overall export performance, immediate energy security programs are unlikely to yield significant benefits until major domestic refinery projects are fully completed.
In the near term, Indonesia faces growing risks of a twin deficit as pressures build on both its current account and fiscal balance. However, the economists note that continued investment in downstream projects and export security initiatives could strengthen the country's structural resilience over the longer term.
The US Dollar (USD) holds ground against the Rupiah as diplomatic tensions remain high after US President Donald Trump described his latest offer of discussions as a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major military strike. Trump expressed expectations that formal negotiations would begin shortly to secure the Strait of Hormuz and address long-standing US concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
Iranian leadership quickly dismissed the proposal. General Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected the conditions, declaring that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait. He further warned that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose would be targeted.
Traders continue to recalibrate their expectations following the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady in July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming September meeting.
Williams sticks to higher-for-longer stance but market hawkishness eases
Fed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring confidence that current rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve the 2% inflation goal. The repeated emphasis on acting if inflation drifts off track and on strong support for the latest FOMC decision reinforces a higher-for-longer bias, even as optimism about gradually easing inflation pressures and a cooling impact from Middle East risks tempers the tone. Acknowledgment of market pricing as “valuable information” but not binding, alongside limited concern over AI-related financial stability, signals policy patience rather than imminent adjustment.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.47 points to 146.76, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This keeps the Fed stance in clear hawkish territory, but the slight decline suggests markets see Williams’ remarks as a confirmation of the existing policy path rather than an escalation in tightening risks.
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