Forex News
- WTI crude surged above $105 after President Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Canadian Dollar headed into a second gaining week, lifted by elevated Crude Oil and broad US Dollar weakness.
- Tuesday's US PPI for March will capture the opening stages of war-driven energy cost increases.
USD/CAD slipped around 0.40% on Monday, falling to session lows near 1.3790 as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained ground on surging Crude Oil prices and broad US Dollar (USD) softness. The pair opened soft and extended its decline through the session, breaking below the 1.3840 area and printing a fresh weekly low. Price has now given back most of its gains from the early April spike toward 1.3950, with a second consecutive weekly decline taking shape.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged as much as 9% to above $105 per barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of weekend negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan. The key shipping route has been effectively closed since the conflict began in late February, and despite persistent market expectations that a resolution will eventually emerge, the goalposts on a peace deal continue to shift.
Elevated energy prices are providing a tailwind for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, even as the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its overnight rate at 2.25% in March and flagged uncertainty about the conflict's impact on the Canadian economy. The BoC's next rate decision is scheduled for April 29, alongside the Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
Coming up: US PPI inflation hot in the barrel
Tuesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) for March is expected to show headline PPI rising 1.2% MoM, up from 0.7% in February, with the YoY reading jumping to 4.6% from 3.4%. The data will capture the opening stages of increased energy costs flowing through the US economy since the Iran war began, and a hotter-than-expected print could further complicate the Fed's rate path heading into the April 28 to 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
USD/CAD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3792, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3819. The pair stays capped by this dynamic barrier, suggesting sellers retain control despite the Stochastic RSI hovering in elevated territory near 84, which hints at short-term upside attempts that so far fail to reclaim the overriding resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-period EMA around 1.3819, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current downside pressure. In the absence of clearly defined supports from the available data, any pullback from current levels would leave recent lows as the next reference area for buyers to defend, while rallies are likely to be sold while the price holds beneath the 200-period EMA.
In the four-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3792. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates just above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3791, keeping recent gains broadly supported after reclaiming the broken downward resistance trend line drawn from 1.3680. Stochastic RSI around 67 suggests bullish momentum is still in play but losing some of its earlier overbought intensity, hinting at a potential pause rather than an outright reversal while price hovers over the key moving average.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 1.3790 area, defined by the proximity of spot to the 200-EMA, with the former descending trend-line break zone near 1.3680 acting as a deeper floor if selling pressure accelerates. With no clear overhead technical barriers from the provided levels, sustained trade above the 200-EMA would keep the short-term bias tilted higher, while a decisive drop back below that moving average would weaken the bullish structure and expose the 1.3680 region.
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3792, consolidating in a tight band between its major moving averages and leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral. Price holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3773, which lends initial trend support, but it remains capped by the 200-day EMA at 1.3815 just overhead, limiting topside follow-through. The Stochastic RSI has retreated toward the lower half of its range, hinting that bullish momentum has faded after the recent advance, but without yet signaling oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-day EMA around 1.3815; a daily close above this barrier would be needed to reopen a more constructive upside phase. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 1.3773 acts as first support; a break beneath this level would expose a deeper pullback and tilt the balance in favor of sellers in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Asian FX, especially high-beta Oil importers like KRW, THB, PHP and INR, to open weaker as renewed geopolitical uncertainty supports crude and the Dollar. However, resumed Hormuz transit tempers tail risks. They see CNH and SGD as relatively resilient and favour AUD over EUR while staying defensive on Asian Oil importers.
High-beta importers under pressure
"Asian FX are likely to start the week on a softer footing as renewed geopolitical uncertainty risks feeding back into crude prices, broader risk sentiment and defensive USD demand."
"Asian FX in particular, higher-beta and net oil importer FX, including KRW, THB, PHP and INR may remain more vulnerable while lower-beta currencies such as CNH and SGD could prove relatively more resilient."
"Still, with limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz having resumed, markets may stop short of fully repricing the most acute disruption scenario for now, which suggests a softer Asian FX open rather than an outright disorderly selloff."
"In a drawn-out conflict with sticky rather than spiking oil, FX should rotate back to terms-of-trade divergence—supporting energy exporters while pressuring importers. We favour AUD over EUR and stay defensive on oil-importing Asian currencies such as KRW, INR, THB and PHP."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to reverse its earlier easing by normalizing the SGD Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) policy band. He anticipates higher core and headline inflation forecasts to reflect the energy shock, while noting that the Singapore Dollar’s (SGD) trade-weighted position is above the mid-point of the band.
Policy band reversal on energy shock
"After a week in which global markets clung to the hope of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, market volatility will likely return following the failure of Sunday’s Islamabad Summit between US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf."
"Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong has framed the Hormuz chokepoint as the worst since the 1973 oil embargo, signalling that Singapore treats this as an existential supply shock, not a standard price fluctuation."
"Against this challenging landscape, we expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to normalize its SGD NEER policy band by reversing the two slope reductions in January and April 2025. We see the MAS raising its core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.5% (from 1-2%) and the CPI-All Items projection to a higher level to reflect the current energy shock."
"While our model shows the SGD NEER positioned around 1.8% above its mid-point, USD/SGD remains tied to the direction of the global USD, which is currently reprising its haven role on President Trump’s blockade decision."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold is undermined by rising Oil prices, which are fueling fears of higher inflation.
- Trump’s Iran remarks trimmed Gold losses by weighing on the US Dollar.
- Traders now eye US PPI, Fed speeches and labor market updates.
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats as the week begins, down some 0.20% on Monday as Crude Oil prices trend up, increasing fears of an inflation spiral that might deter central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), from lowering borrowing costs. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,734, after retreating from a daily peak of $4,750.
Bullion eases as Oil gains and Fed hold bets keep buyers wary
Recently, bullion prices had trimmed some of their earlier losses as US President Donald Trump said that Vice-President JD Vance has done a good job on Iran, and had been called by Iran, which wants to make a deal “very badly.”
Trump added that Iran “did not agree to not having a nuclear weapon,” adding that “We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world,” and that “we’ll get nuclear material back.”
Aside from this, the Greenback trimmed some of its earlier gains after Trump’s comments, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of a basket of six currencies against the US Dollar, turned negative, losing 0.09% in the day at 98.61.
In the meantime, the US established a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which began at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday, aimed at blocking Iranian-flagged vessels and those from other countries leaving Iranian ports.
Existing Home Sales fell to a nine-month low of 3.98 million in March, down 3.6% MoM, but the data was largely ignored as traders waited for a resolution to the US-Iran conflict.
Fed expected to keep policy steady
Last week’s inflation report in the US wasn’t a surprise for anyone, according to San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. She said that the chances for holding rates are higher than a hike, though noted that “if inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done.”
March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US climbed by 3.3% YoY, almost 1% up from February’s data. Still, fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East prompted investors to trim dovish bets on the Fed, as they expect the central bank to stand pat, according to data from Prime Market Terminal (PMT).
Fed interest rate probabilities
Therefore, US Treasury yields are expected to remain higher, a headwind for Gold prices. At the time of writing, the US 10-year T-note is down 1.5 basis points to 4.30%.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, along with speeches by Fed officials and the March Producer Price Index (PPI), expected to rise 4.6% YoY.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold bounces from 20- and 100-day SMA confluence support zone
Gold price is upward biased from a medium-term perspective, as it rebounds from daily lows of $4,639, below the confluence of the 100- and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at $4,658-$4,668.
In the short term, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bearish, but if the index fails to clear the 44.76 trough, bullion could be set for higher prices.
If XAU/USD clears the key psychological $4,750 resistance, it could open the way for higher prices, with the next resistance at $4,800. Above here, further gains lie in the next area of interest: the April 8 peak at $4,857, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,897.
Conversely, if Gold retreats below $4,700, look for a challenge of the confluence of the 20- and 100-day SMAs at around $4,668/58, followed by the $4,600 figure.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, April 14:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell on Monday, as markets digest headlines of failed Iran-United States (US) peace talks over the weekend and reports that US President Donald Trump moved the US Navy to close the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would typically fuel a strong safe-haven bid for the Greenback.
However, price action suggests that the USD is declining as investors reassess the escalation's durability and credibility, particularly after Iran indicated it might reduce uranium enrichment, suggesting a potential off-ramp.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.28% | 0.02% | -0.34% | -0.43% | -0.53% | -0.70% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | -0.04% | 0.26% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.28% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.30% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.25% | -0.41% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.40% | -0.48% | -0.58% | -0.68% | |
| CAD | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.40% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | 0.43% | 0.19% | 0.15% | 0.48% | 0.05% | -0.09% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.09% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.41% | 0.68% | 0.35% | 0.17% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The EUR/USD pair is pushing higher near the 1.1765 price region, benefiting from the softer US Dollar (USD). In the absence of Eurozone data, the move is largely a Greenback-driven correction rather than a reflection of Euro strength.
The GBP/USD pair is on a week-long winning streak near the 1.3500 level, supported by the weaker USD backdrop. The British Pound is capitalizing on the shift in flows away from the Greenback.
The USD/JPY pair is edging lower toward 159.30, with the Japanese Yen gaining modest ground. Unlike the previous two sessions, the Yen is now outperforming the USD as the latter loses its safe-haven appeal.
The AUD/USD pair surged toward the 0.7090 price region as risk sentiment stabilized marginally and the USD weakened.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell to $98.90 per barrel, even as concerns about the Strait of Hormuz being shut rose earlier in the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near the $4,730 level, muted amid investor focus on riskier assets.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, April 14:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Westpac Consumer Confidence April
- CN Exports March
- CN Imports March
- CN Trade Balance March
- Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US March PPIs
Wednesday, April 15:
- US IMF Meeting
- France CPI March
- Eurozone Industrial Production February
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index April
- US Fed Beige Book
Thursday, April 16:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Employment Change March
- AU Unemployment Rate March
- CN GDP Q1
- CN Industrial Production March
- CN Retail Sales March
- UK GDP February
- UK Industrial Production February
- UK Manufacturing Production February
- Italian CPIs March
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
- US Industrial Production March
Friday, April 17:
- US IMF Meeting
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen examines Iran’s proposal to charge Strait of Hormuz tolls in Renminbi and finds it unlikely to trigger a major Petroyuan shift. The analysis highlights legal uncertainties, the shrinking role of Oil and Gulf trade in global flows, and stresses that any Renminbi-based diversification is more politically than economically motivated at this stage.
Iran toll plan offers modest CNY tailwind
"Iran has introduced plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, albeit with one important condition: A fee of up to USD 2 million per ship passing through the strait would need to be paid. Even more significant: the fee is to be paid in Chinese Renminbi (or in cryptocurrency, though this is likely of little relevance)."
"For those who predict the decline of the US dollar, the latest developments in the Iran conflict are welcome news: they see this as a signal of the end of the so-called Petrodollar and interpret it as another blow to the dollar’s dominance in the global currency system. After all, around one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, supply that could potentially no longer be settled in dollars due to Iranian pressure. Additionally, since the majority of these energy shipments are routed to Asia, there may be anyway an incentive to settle the trade more extensively in CNY."
"One factor is the observation recently made by my colleague Volkmar, who correctly noted that the trade of oil - and specifically the Gulf region’s share in global trade - has been declining in importance. By 2024, oil, oil products, and natural gas together accounted for around 10% of global goods trade (based on Comtrade data). Less than a fifth of this would be directly impacted by the Iranian government’s plans."
"It is also essential to understand why dollar dominance has declined, particularly in recent years. A notable trend in central bank reserves is a move away from the US currency, particularly toward so-called "non-traditional" currencies. Gopinath et al., 2022 confirm the most apparent reason: they show that this shift is driven by geopolitical developments."
"Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, countries that maintain less close ties to the West have been conducting less trade in USD and EUR. Instead, payments are increasingly settled in Renminbi, domestic currencies, or other alternatives."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reviews Colombian presidential election dynamics ahead of the May 31, 2026 vote, noting that polls suggest a runoff where a unified right has an advantage over the Historic Pact candidate. The note highlights Paloma Valencia’s growing support among undecided voters, lingering fragmentation risks, and elevated institutional and fiscal stress that keep markets cautious on Colombian assets.
Unified right seen with runoff edge
"Polls show runoff dynamics favour a unified right: Valencia or De la Espriella outperform Cepeda in second-round matchups, with fragmentation the key risk."
"Valencia gaining traction: Undecided voters are consolidating around her, while Cepeda appears near a ceiling."
"Odds now slightly favour Valencia, but poll credibility is clouded by a CNE [Consejo Nacional Electoral - National Electoral Council] probe."
"Institutional and fiscal stress elevated: Central bank tensions and limited fiscal space heighten market sensitivity."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD rebounds after a gap-down open as hopes for a US-Iran deal support sentiment.
- US Dollar eases as DXY retreats from near 99.00 after early-week strength.
- RBA’s hawkish stance and upcoming employment data keep interest rate expectations in focus.
AUD/USD stages a sharp reversal on Monday after opening the week with a gap lower, as investors reassess evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the prospects for a US-Iran deal. The rebound comes as hopes of a deal still being reached improve market mood, lifting the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD) while putting pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7089, rebounding from an intraday low near 0.6990. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.54, easing from intraday highs near the 99.00 level.
US President Donald Trump said during a press conference at the Oval Office on Monday that the United States has been contacted by “the right people” in Iran, signaling potential room for renewed negotiations. “We’ve been called by the other side,” he told reporters. “They’d like to make a deal very badly.”
These remarks come after Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports following a weekend of US-Iran talks that ended without a breakthrough.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly any signs of de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as elevated Oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and complicate the monetary policy outlook for major central banks.
In the US, the impact of rising Oil prices was clearly evident in the March inflation data, with headline CPI increasing by 0.9% MoM from 0.3% in February, while the annual rate rose to 3.3% YoY from 2.4%. The stronger inflation print has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in the coming months.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a hawkish stance amid persistent inflation pressures, with inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2%-3% target range. The RBA has already raised interest rates twice this year, and Australia’s employment data due on Thursday could influence interest rate expectations going forward.
Traders will also closely monitor China’s trade balance data on Tuesday, given Australia’s strong economic ties with China, which make the Aussie particularly sensitive to developments in the world’s second-largest economy.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance CNY
The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 14, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 1,500B
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Danske Bank’s Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen and Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö report that Danish private consumption strengthened in March, with real spending excluding energy up 1.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. Retail and grocery spending continued to recover, and services such as beauty, travel and leisure also expanded. Higher energy prices lifted gas-station outlays but did not materially crowd out other categories.
Danish consumers lift real spending
"Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy increased by 1.2% in March compared to February, driven by higher consumption across both goods and services. Real spending excluding energy in March climbed 3.8% higher than in March 2025. The timing of Easter is likely an explanation for the high growth y/y."
"Real retail spending rose 1.2% m/m in March. Real grocery spending rose 0.6% m/m, continuing the upward trend seen since October 2025. This marks a notable shift following a prolonged period from mid-2024 when consumers consistently reduced their real grocery spending and is likely a product of food prices no longer rising rapidly."
"Spending at gas stations rose 12.4% m/m in nominal terms in March, reflecting higher gasoline and diesel prices. However, nominal spending is only back at 2024 levels. This relatively modest effect, all things considered, also reflects a significant shift in the Danish car stock, where households are rapidly shifting from fossil fuel cars to electrical cars in recent years."
"Real spending rose across the service sector in March. Beauty and barber shops, along with travel-related services, recorded a significant increase, while other services, such as restaurants, bars, tourist attractions, and cinemas, saw more moderate growth."
"Despite rising energy prices in March, we have not seen this cannibalise other types of spending. The timing of Easter might muddle the picture slightly, but overall spending improved across the board in March."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
US President Donald Trump spoke at a press conference at the Oval Office and praised Vice-President JD Vance's work on Iran, saying that he “has done a very good job on Iran.”
Amongst that, he said that “we’ve been called this morning by the right people on Iran,” and that they “want a deal.” He reiterated that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has started.
Key highlights:
VICE PRESIDENT VANCE HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB ON IRAN
WE'VE BEEN CALLED BY THE OTHER SIDE AND THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL VERY BADLY
IRAN DID NOT AGREE TO NOT HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON
WE'LL GET NUCLEAR MATERIAL BACK
BLOCKADE HAS STARTED
WE'VE BEEN CALLED THIS MORNING BY THE RIGHT PEOPLE ON IRAN
CHINA'S XI WANTS TO SEE THIS ENDED
TRUMP: WE MAY STOP BY CUBA AFTER WE'RE FINISHED WITH IRAN
Market’s reaction
- Gold prices ticked up from around $4,730 to $4,741 before retreating to $4,734.
- The Dow Jones Industrial paired some of its earlier losses and is flat at 47,926.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) turned negative, losing 0.09% in the day at 98.61.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Forex Market News
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