Forex News

• WTI Oil eases from highs near $103.00 but remains within its recent range, above $100.
• Early signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran have boosted hopes of a new round of negotiations.
• Ongoing attacks on vessels attempting to cross the Srtrair of Hormuz are keeping Oil prices from dropping further.

Oil edges lower on Thursday, as comments from US and Iranian officials hint at some efforts to de-escalate tensions, although dips remain limited so far. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel is trading at $100.80 at the time of writing, down from Wednesday’s high near $103.00 but still above the key $100.00 level.

US media reported earlier on Thursday that Vice President JD Vance reached out to Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, to reactivate peace negotiations. President Donald Trump, however, denied it and said that the contact was related to Iran’s need for medical supplies.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, affirmed that Tehran remains in close contact with mediators to implement their seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. There is no real evidence of any progress towards a peace deal, but the de-escalation in rhetoric has already triggered cautious hopes that the rivals might return to the negotiating table. 

Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, however, continue, keeping Oil prices from falling further. The UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO) reported that a vessel was on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, in Oman, and Iranian officials affirmed that the waterway will remain closed for traffic until their seven-day plan is accepted.

On Wednesday, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that Crude Oil stocks declined by 1.46 million barrels in the week of October 23, well beyond the 300K drop forecasted by market analysts, and following a 3.06 million-barrel drawdown in the previous week. These figures add to the evidence of the quick depletion of Oil inventories and are contributing to keeping prices steady at high levels.

• The Indian Rupee weakens further against the US Dollar due to elevated oil prices.
• The US and Iran are preparing for a joint military operation against Iran after elections.
• On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the 3.75%-4.00% range.

The Indian Rupee (INR) revisits a two-week low against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as elevated oil prices continue to keep the South Asian currency under pressure. In the opening session, the USD/INR pair trades slightly higher to near 95.30.

As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is down 1.5% to near Rs. 9,650. Still, the oil price is close to its recent highs of Rs. 9,828.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.

What is supporting oil prices?

Oil prices have remained elevated due to growing fears of further escalation in energy supply risks, as reports suggest that Israel and the United States (US) are preparing for fresh attacks on Iran after their respective elections.

Strategists at Deutsche Bank point out that oil prices remain broadly higher after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration warned Gulf states to be prepared for a new operation against Iran after the midterms. Adding to the geopolitical bid, Danske Bank’s research team highlights that, in his post-election speech, Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu raised the prospect of “renewed joint action with President Trump against Iran”.

Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia are also fuelling energy supply concerns. On Tuesday, a military spokesperson from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said that they launched a ballistic missile toward the Ras Tanura oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s largest refinery, Reuters reported.

RBI likely intervened

According to a Reuters report, the Reserve Bank of ​India (RBI) likely intervened in ‌the foreign exchange market on Wednesday, ​according to traders, ​in order to support ⁠the rupee as ​persistently high oil ​prices maintain pressure on the South Asian currency.

US Dollar regains ground after Fed’s policy announcement

The slight recovery move in the US Dollar in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement is also lending strength to the USD/INR pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 102.20.

The USD Index failed to extend its three-day winning streak on Wednesday and corrected to near 102.00, following the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

At the policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the 3.75%-4.00% range, as expected, and reiterated its commitment to achieve price stability. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said there would be only six monetary policy decisions starting in 2028.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR aims to extend recovery towards 95.80

In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.28, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.33. The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests that rallies are still being capped by nearby dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 points to neutral-to-soft momentum rather than an oversold condition, limiting scope for an aggressive rebound.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 95.33, which acts as the first hurdle for any recovery attempt; a sustained break above this level would open the door for the pair towards the gap-driven hurdle near 95.80. On the downside, the 95.00 level is the immediate support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• The British Pound ticks lower against the US Dollar ahead of the US flash Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data.
• The US economy is expected to have expanded at a stronger pace of 3.2% in the July-September period.
• Investors are confident that the Fed and the BoE will hike interest rates in their upcoming policy meetings.

The British Pound (GBP) edges down to near 1.3312 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground, with financial markets remaining confident of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike in December after leaving them steady in the policy meeting on Wednesday.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 102.20. The USD Index corrected on Wednesday after a three-day winning streak.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU note that the Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged at "3.75–4.00%", a widely anticipated pause following September’s hike, but stress that the decision "included two dissents in favour of another rate increase," underscoring lingering hawkishness on the committee. They highlight that Fed Chair Warsh "reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to 2%".

MUFG/BTMU add that "markets continue to price around an 87% probability of a December rate hike," indicating that investors still expect further action this year.

On the economic data front, investors await the United States (US) flash Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to estimates, the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.2%, faster than the previous reading of 2.2%. The core PCE Inflation, which is Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is seen higher at 3.1% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 3%.

On the UK front, investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced next week. The BoE is almost certain to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3307, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot holds just beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3318. Price location below this short-term EMA suggests the latest rebound remains capped by nearby dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at consolidative rather than trending momentum, leaving the pair vulnerable as long as it fails to reclaim the 1.3318 barrier.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 1.3318; a sustained break above this level would ease downside pressure and open the way for a broader recovery. With no clear support indicators in the current dataset, traders may look to recent price lows on the chart for reference, but the technical focus stays on whether GBP/USD can overcome the 1.3318 cap to negate the current bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Euro weakens ahead of the ECB’s rate decision while energy-driven inflation risks persist.
• ECB expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50%, with traders seeking hints on possible December hikes.
• Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 bps to 2.50%, boosting CAD and signaling potential future tightening.

EUR/CAD continues its losing streak that began on October 16, trading around 1.5580 during European hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciated as the Euro (EUR) lost ground ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming policy decision.

The ECB is widely expected to hold its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% at its Thursday meeting, following 50 basis points of rate increases earlier in the year. However, persistent energy-driven inflation has fueled ongoing debate over whether policymakers might resume rate hikes in December. As a result, market participants are closely scrutinizing the ECB’s evaluation of inflation risks, economic growth, and any forward guidance regarding the future path of interest rates.

Adding to the downward pressure on the EUR/CAD cross, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened after the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a 25 basis point rate hike, raising its benchmark overnight interest rate to 2.50% at its October meeting on Wednesday. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that further rate hikes may be needed, though policymakers intend to move cautiously given economic uncertainties. Supporting its hawkish stance, the BoC noted in its official statement that ongoing global economic resilience prompted a slight upward revision to 2026 global GDP growth to 3.1%, while maintaining its projections for 2027 and 2028 at 3.2%.

Analysts at Danske Bank highlight the limited market reaction to the Bank of Canada’s latest rate increase, noting that “USD/CAD and the 2Y swap rate were about unchanged on the news,” underscoring how the policy shift failed to materially move key Canadian FX and rates benchmarks.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose assesses Hungary’s new medium-term framework targeting Euro adoption criteria by 2030. Ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth assumptions leave debt above EU thresholds, while structural reforms and lower inflation remain uncertain. Markets expect the Hungarian National Bank to enter ERM II with an undervalued HUF, so the Forint may stay near weaker ranges ahead of convergence.

Convergence story leaves HUF vulnerable

"Hungary’s government published its medium-term economic framework today, pledging to meet all criteria for euro adoption by 2030. The government and Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) will begin preparations for ERM II entry, including discussions about banking-union membership and the EU’s supervisory and resolution mechanisms."

"Among the major points, euro adoption is always getting centre-stage in recent government and central bank commentary. Probably because it is intended as a verbal intervention to stabilise the forint by signalling a pro-EU approach. But, as we have written before, this may not work. The market already recognises that it will be in MNB’s interest to enter ERM II with HUF slightly undervalued, not overvalued (easier to prevent volatility that way)."

"Hence, our conclusion remains unchanged: HUF may trade near its weaker ranges leading up to ERM II, while the government still has to deliver multiple difficult interim milestones, without letting this ruin its popularity – if its popularity fades, the FX market will stop pricing-in ERM II – because a return of Fidesz would automatically spell the end of that plan."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that USD/CHF failed to decisively clear resistance, peaking at 0.8313 before closing lower at 0.8279. For the next 24 hours, they expect consolidation between 0.8265 and 0.8305 as momentum indicators turn flat. Over 1–3 weeks, price action still points to a possible test of 0.8320, though odds of a sustained break higher are seen as low.

Dollar-Swiss capped by nearby resistance

"24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected USD to “edge higher” yesterday, we were of the view that “any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 0.8320.” We noted that “support is at 0.8270.” Our view was not wrong, as USD rose to 0.8313, declined sharply to 0.8273 before closing at 0.8279 (-0.13%). Momentum indicators are turning flat, and USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8265 and 0.8305."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Tuesday (27 Oct, spot at 0.8270), we stated that “upward momentum is starting to build, and if USD closes above 0.8290, it could rise to 0.8320.” After USD closed at 0.8290, we highlighted yesterday (28 Oct, spot at 0.8290) that “while we would have preferred a more decisive close above 0.8290, the price action suggests USD could test 0.8320.” We also highlighted that “the odds of a continued rise above this level are not high for now.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as USD holds above 0.8250 (no change in ‘strong support’ level)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight pressure on US equity futures as disappointing results from Alphabet and Samsung overshadow Microsoft's strong cloud performance. They note broader weakness across Asian markets, while European equities struggle for direction amid rising energy prices. Upcoming earnings from Amazon and Intel remain in focus.

Tech earnings disappoint as Nasdaq futures retreat

"Alphabet’s shares sank by almost -10% in after-hours trading, after its Q3 sales fell just shy of analyst expectations due to disappointing Google Services revenue ($96.3bn vs $98.4bn est.). With ad revenue growing at its slowest pace in five quarters, the results raised questions about whether the payoffs will come fast enough to justify the company’s soaring capex spend."

"Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics is trading about -5% lower in Asia this morning after the operating profit in its chip unit came in below analysts’ optimistic expectations and the company delayed its new shareholder return plan."

"Microsoft did gain about +3% in extended trading after delivering a beat in cloud computing revenue (+48% yoy vs +44% est.) but this was insufficient to brighten the overall gloomy tech mood this morning. Nasdaq futures are trading -1.20% lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.35%."

"A more downbeat mood is also visible in most Asian markets this morning, with KOSPI (-1.20%) down after Samsung’s earnings, though it has recovered from about -3% down earlier on. Elsewhere, the CSI 300 (-1.20%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.93%) are also trading lower."

"In contrast, the Nikkei (+0.66%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.45%) are bucking the broader regional weakness, while the Hang Seng (+0.06%) has fluctuated between gains and losses. Tech earnings will remain in focus today with Amazon and Intel reporting."

"Rising energy prices also meant European equities struggled to gain traction. The Stoxx 600 (+0.07%), FTSE 100 (+0.07%), and CAC 40 (-0.00%) closed relatively unchanged, while Spain’s IBEX (-1.45%) registered a steeper fall."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD meets fresh supply following the previous day's post-FOMC bounce from a 17-month low.
• A hawkish Fed and geopolitical risks underpin the USD, while France’s debt crisis weighs on the Euro.
• Traders now look to important US macro releases and the crucial ECB decision for a fresh impetus.

The EUR/USD pair sticks to a mildly negative bias through the first half of the European session on Thursday, currently trading below 1.1150 and close to its lowest level since May 2025. The downside, however, remains cushioned as traders keenly await important US macro releases and the key central bank event.

The Advance US Q3 GDP report, along with the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be published later today and will be looked to for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path. The crucial data, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. The attention will then shift to the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) decision.

The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while maintaining a hawkish bias toward a potential 25-basis-point (bps) hike in December. Traders will further scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments, which might infuse some volatility around the shared currency and further produce short-term trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.

In the meantime, concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s election continue to undermine the shared currency. The USD, on the other hand, regains positive traction following the previous day's corrective slide from a two-week high amid hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical uncertainties. This, in turn, keeps the EUR/USD pair depressed and backs the case for further losses.

In a widely expected move, the Fed held interest rates steady at the end of the October policy meeting in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point hike. Adding to this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled during the post-meeting press conference that the central bank remains vigilant against persistent inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict.

This comes on top of concerns about energy-driven price pressures and underpins prospects for further tightening by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at its December policy meeting. The hawkish outlook, in turn, favors USD bulls and validates the near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term tone below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 1.1216. Bears, however, might await a break below the 1.1115-1.1110 area before positioning for an extension of the well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the topside, traders may look to intraday swing high near the 1.1160 for signs of either base-building or continuation of the bearish sequence. Any further recovery, however, might confront resistance near 1.1200, which is followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Sustained strength above this level would be needed to ease the current downside pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Gold meets with fresh supply on Thursday amid the emergence of some USD dip-buying.
• Hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks revive demand for the safe-haven buck.
• Traders now look to the US Q3 GDP report and the crucial PCE Price Index for some impetus.

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its heavily offered tone through the first half of the European session, trading near the lower end of the daily range, around $4,030, amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. The US Dollar (USD) attracts fresh buyers after Wednesday's post-FOMC corrective slide from a two-week high and is seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

In a widely expected move, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the end of the October policy meeting in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point hike. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled during the post-meeting press conference that the central bank remains vigilant against persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This comes on top of concerns about energy-driven price pressures and underpins prospects for further tightening by the Fed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at its December policy meeting. The hawkish outlook, in turn, revives USD demand and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding Gold.

Adding to this, fears of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East underpin the safe-haven Greenback. In fact, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that US officials have told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a short and intense military campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said armed forces stand ready to defend the country even as Tehran will keep in close contact with intermediaries to give diplomacy a chance. Meanwhile, regional mediators led by Qatar are working to restart negotiations between the US and Iran to prevent the resumption of the war. Separately, US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to revive peace negotiations.

Nevertheless, the geopolitical risks remain in play as furious fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi group and the Saudi Arabia-backed government in Yemen continues. In the latest developments, the Houthis on Tuesday said they had targeted Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura ‌oil refinery – the biggest in the kingdom – with a ballistic missile. Furthermore, attacks on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline earlier this week stoked supply disruption fears and supported crude oil prices. This, in turn, favors USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the release of crucial US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

The XAU/USD pair has been trending lower over the past month or so along a downward-sloping channel and keeps a bearish near-term tone below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral region, around 47.5. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint at a corrective bounce within a broader downside bias defined by the descending channel.

Hence, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront initial resistance near the 100-period EMA at $4,105, followed by a stronger barrier at the channel top around $4,125, where selling pressure could re-emerge. On the downside, the $4,000 psychological mark could act as the next notable support ahead of the lower boundary of the descending parallel channel, around $3,946. A decisive break beneath this floor would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and open the door to deeper losses in the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)