Forex News
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan argues that while the pace of Rupiah depreciation may slow, the broader weakening trend is set to continue. USD/IDR has pulled back as crowded long positions unwind and some foreign inflows return, but elevated US yields and high Oil prices remain headwinds. MUFG maintains its USD/IDR forecast at 18,350 by end-2026.
Rupiah under pressure from oil shock
"The pace of rupiah depreciation might moderate, but the broader depreciation trend is unlikely to be over. USDIDR has retraced nearly 500 points from its peak as crowded long USD/IDR positioning unwinds and some foreign inflows return. However, headwinds from elevated US yields and higher oil prices remain in place. We maintain our forecast for USDIDR at 18,350 by end-2026."
"Indonesia's trade balance remains under pressure. While the goods trade balance returned to a modest surplus in July after deficits in the prior two months, it remains well below the monthly average surplus recorded in 2025. Surpluses in coal, palm oil, and base metals are only partially offsetting the oil shock impact. Our estimates suggest Indonesia's commodity trade balance is negatively impacted once Brent rises above US$82/bbl. With Brent currently above US$90/bbl, trade-balance pressures are likely to persist, limiting the scope for sustained rupiah appreciation."
"The stronger support for IDR in the near term is portfolio inflows, but this buffer may be approaching maturity. Foreign ownership of SRBI has risen back to around 27%, close to late-2024 highs, while SRBI yields have started to moderate from their June peak. BI's strategy of raising the return on portfolio capital has been effective in stabilising USD/IDR, but its ability to drive further sustained rupiah gains may be diminishing amidst rising US yields and oil prices."
"Several macro and market risks continue to argue against a structurally bullish rupiah view. MSCI's removal of GoTo from the Indonesia index highlights ongoing concerns around market accessibility and liquidity, while uncertainty remains over the future direction of state-led commodity export reforms under Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI). At the same time, headline inflation has accelerated to 3.19%yoy and core inflation continues to trend higher, raising the possibility of further BI rate hikes if energy and food price pressures persist."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Geoff Yu notes that Bank Negara Malaysia kept its policy rate at 2.75%, judging the stance consistent with price stability and sustainable growth. The bank sees Malaysia’s economy on track for around 5% growth this year, with low inflation and limited external cost pass-through. However, it highlights Middle East tensions, elevated commodity prices and tighter global financial conditions as risks to the broader growth and inflation outlook.
BNM holds rates, monitors risks
"Bank Negara Malaysia has kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, judging the current stance to be consistent with continued price stability and sustainable growth."
"It said Malaysia’s economy expanded by 5.7% in H1 and is on track to grow around 5% this year, supported by stronger exports, resilient domestic demand, technology-related trade, tourism and investment."
"Headline and core inflation averaged 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively, in the first seven months, with limited pass-through from higher external costs."
"However, the MPC warned that Middle East tensions, elevated commodity prices and tighter global financial conditions remain key risks."
"Policy therefore remains on hold, with officials closely monitoring inflation pressures and domestic demand."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD jumps as Waller comments drag USD and yields lower.
- RSI rebound from neutral signals short-term bullish momentum returning.
- Break above $67.66 exposes $71.12 and 200-day SMA.
Silver (XAG/USD) price advances by some 2.45% on Thursday, boosted by dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, which pushed the US Dollar and US Treasury yields lower. The XAG/USD pair trades at $66.90 after reaching a high of $67.48.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal is neutral to downward biased. After hitting an all-time high of $121.66 in late January, Silver price respects the market structure of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control.
Momentum shifted in favor of bulls in the short term as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped to its 50-neutral level before bouncing higher. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upwards.
To resume the uptrend, Silver must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.66. A breach of the latter will expose the August 28 swing high of $71.12, followed by the 200-day SMA at $72.78. If those two levels are taken out, buyers could challenge the May 25 high at $78.83, ahead of $80.00.
On the other hand, if XAG/USD struggles to break above the 100-day SMA, sellers could drive prices towards the September 2 swing low of $63.32. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 61.85, before the precious metal registers a leg lower towards $60.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Commerzbank’s Singapore-based team highlights robust Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs, supported by an AI-driven semiconductor cycle, alongside upgraded MAS Survey GDP and export forecasts. With 2026 inflation expectations revised lower and MAS seen possibly steepening the SGD NEER slope in October, professional forecasters raised their median end-2026 USD/SGD forecast, while Commerzbank looks for near-term consolidation in a defined range.
AI cycle supports Singapore Dollar
"Singapore's manufacturing sector strengthened further in August, with the PMI edging up to 51.5 from 51.4 in July, marking the 13th consecutive month of expansion. Encouragingly, new orders rose to 52.0 from 51.9 previously, new export orders were also slightly firmer at 51.7 from 51.6 previously, and employment picked up to 51.2 from 51.1 previously. "
"The electronics PMI was even firmer at 52.6 from 52.4 previously, its 15th straight month above 50, supported by the AI-driven semiconductor cycle. Electronics new orders were firmer at 53.3 from 53.1 previously, while electronics new export orders were also firmer at 52.8 from 52.6 previously."
"Overall, the data point to continued strength in electronics output in the coming months. However, supply-chain disruptions remain evident, with supplier deliveries deteriorating further and input prices rising."
"The latest MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters for September reinforces the strong-growth picture. The median 2026 GDP growth forecast was raised sharply to 5.0% from 3.5% in June, close to the upper end of the government's 4.5-5.5% range. Manufacturing growth was upgraded to 8.4% from 5.0%, while the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) forecast was revised up sharply to 17.0% from 6.1% previously."
"The 2026 headline inflation forecast was cut to 2.1% from 2.3% and core inflation to 1.9% from 2.0%. MAS is projecting headline and core inflation at 1.5-2.5% this year. On monetary policy, 45% of respondents expect MAS to steepen the SGD NEER slope again in October, up from 30% in June, while 55% expect no change."
"For USD/SGD, the combination of stronger growth but contained inflation is modestly supportive of SGD."
"We look for consolidation between 1.2650-1.2800 in the near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to tight ranges in different time frames. For the next 24 hours, they expect the Dollar to trade between 6.7130 and 6.7230. Over 1–3 weeks, they see USD/CNH edging lower within 6.7050–6.7300, while a 1–3 month recovery needs a break above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar seen confined to tight ranges
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected USD to “range-trade between 6.7180 and 6.7270.” USD then rose to 6.7266, dropped to 6.7162 before closing largely unchanged at 6.7178 (-0.07%). While there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 6.7130/6.7230 rather than a sustained decline."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We continue to hold the same view as two days ago (01 Sep, spot at 6.7180). As highlighted, the increase in downward momentum earlier this week “is insufficient to indicate a continued decline.” We also highlighted that USD “could edge lower within a 6.7050/6.7300 range.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF drops below the 50-day SMA as the Greenback's weakness deepens.
- Bearish RSI signals sellers are in control of short-term price action.
- Recovery above 0.8100 exposes 0.8156 and 0.8200 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair tumbles nearly 0.80% on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on rumors of a potential intervention in the FX markets to boost the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair fell from around daily highs of 0.8131, extending its losses to the current exchange rate near 0.8065.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
USD/CHF tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8090, but so far is retaining its upward bias, as the pair is above a previously broken resistance trendline that has turned into support. Also, the 100- and 200-day SMAs remain below the current exchange rate, meaning that in the medium and long term, the overall trend remains up.
Nevertheless, momentum shifted in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, an indication that sellers are in charge. Hence, in the short term, further downside is expected unless buyers reclaim key technical resistance areas.
On the downside, the first support for USD/CHF is the July 30 low of 0.8039. Below lies 0.8000, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7992 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934.
On the other hand, if USD/CHF reclaims 0.8100, the next resistance is the September 2 high at 0.8156, before traders test 0.8200.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.39% | -1.99% | -0.40% | -0.51% | -0.53% | -0.75% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | -0.00% | -1.63% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.20% | -0.37% | |
| GBP | 0.39% | 0.00% | -1.62% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 1.99% | 1.63% | 1.62% | 1.62% | 1.52% | 1.45% | 1.27% | |
| CAD | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.05% | -1.62% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.11% | -1.52% | 0.11% | -0.06% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.20% | 0.18% | -1.45% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.75% | 0.37% | 0.37% | -1.27% | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- The US Dollar slides below 99.00 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in more than a week.
- A pullback in Treasury yields and Waller’s less-hawkish remarks weigh on the Greenback.
- Friday’s NFP report could decide whether the Dollar rebounds or extends its decline.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slides below 99.00 to its lowest level in over a week on Thursday. At the time of writing, DXY trades around 98.90, down 0.67% on the day, after reaching 99.86 on Wednesday.
A sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) leads the Greenback’s decline. USD/JPY falls for the second consecutive day, down around 2% at the time of writing and trading near 155.45, its lowest level in a month and close to the post-July coordinated intervention low of 155.24. The Yen’s quick move has sparked fresh intervention speculation, including talk of a possible rate check, but there has been no confirmation from Japanese authorities.
A modest pullback in US Treasury yields also weighs on the US Dollar. Yields retreat across the curve from recent highs, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading around 4.75% after touching 4.81% on Wednesday, its highest level since October 2023.
Selling pressure on the Greenback gathered pace following less-hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, prompting traders to scale back bets on a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Waller said he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” adding: “Give disinflation a chance; we can wait one meeting.” However, he warned that if the trend reverses in August, he would be “willing to pull the trigger on a rate hike.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has fallen to around 50% from 63% a day earlier.
Traders largely shrug off Thursday’s US economic data. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 206K, slightly above expectations of 205K, while the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 55.4 in August from 54.1 in July, beating the market forecast of 54.3.
The US Dollar now faces a crucial test from Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report
The US economy is expected to add 58K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. Markets will also closely examine wage growth and revisions to previous payroll figures after employment gains for May and June were revised down by a combined 103K in the July report.
A stronger-than-expected report could revive expectations of a September rate hike and help the US Dollar regain ground. Conversely, another weak payroll print or sharp downward revisions would strengthen the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, leaving DXY vulnerable to a deeper decline.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- Gold rallies above $4,480 as Waller tempers Fed hike bets.
- ISM Services strength contrasts with softer low-firing labor backdrop.
- NFP and Hammack speech could reset September rate expectations.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies more than 2% on Thursday following dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who advocated holding rates steady if inflation data shows the disinflation process continues. At the same time, US data was mixed, with jobless claims remaining at familiar levels while business activity improved. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,487.
XAU/USD jumps as Waller’s neutral tilt offsets firm services activity
Fed Governor Christopher Waller shifted to a more neutral stance, as he has been vocal about stubbornly high inflation. On Thursday, he said that if inflation cools, he will support keeping rates unchanged. However, he didn’t close the door on a hike if prices come hotter than foreseen.
In the meantime, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has weighed on the US Dollar, which has been pressured since Wednesday amid speculation of an intervention to boost the Japanese Yen.
The release of US jobs data on Thursday showed that the labor market is in a low-firing, low-hiring environment. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 29 rose from 204K to 206K, a tick above the 205K projected by Wall Street’s economists.
The ISM Services PMI indicated business activity in the services sector is solid, though input costs remain high. The index rose to 55.4 from 54.1, exceeding estimates of 54.3. The Prices Paid sub-component jumped from 70.3 to 72.6, the highest since August 2022.
Given the backdrop, but mostly influenced by Waller’s comments, money markets priced in a lower chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting. The odds stand at 54%, while for holding rates near 46%, according to Prime Terminal.
Ahead, traders eye speeches by Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack and also Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for August, which are expected to improve from a -23K contraction to 56K, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.1%, unchanged, compared to the previous print.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reclaims $4,400, buyers target 200-day SMA
Gold price shifted gears and climbed above the September 1 high of $4,461, further accelerating toward $4,500 as traders stepped in amid broad US Dollar weakness.
Momentum has shifted to moderately bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI signals that buyers are gaining strength, an indication that bullion prices might continue to trend higher.
If XAU/USD clears $4,500, the next resistance would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4.533. Once surpassed, the next stop is the $4,600 milestone, with the next area to watch being the August monthly high of $4,697.
Downwards, Gold’s first support is the $4,400 mark. Below that is the 100-day SMA at $4,358. On further weakness, the next floor level is $4,300, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,232.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ING’s Warren Patterson says European gas prices have climbed above EUR70/MWh as lower Persian Gulf LNG supply and strong Asian spot buying cut EU LNG imports by about 16% year-on-year between April and July. EU storage was around 65% full at the end of August versus an 82% five-year average, with inventories projected at 72–73% at the start of the heating season, potentially prompting faster purchases and limiting downside for prices into winter.
Low storage supports gas prices
"European gas prices have recently exceeded EUR70/MWh, their highest since March. Lower Persian Gulf LNG supply has tightened the global market, while strong Asian spot buying pushed EU LNG imports down about 16% year-on-year between April and July. We believe imports should stabilise and recover on a month-on-month basis because freight economics now favour sending spot cargoes to Europe."
"Slower injections left EU storage around 65% full at the end of August, versus a five-year average of 82% and below 2021 levels. Our balance points to inventories of 72-73% at the start of the heating season, well below the headline 90% target and potentially below the flexible 75% threshold."
"Some member states may therefore need to accelerate purchases, supporting prices as winter approaches. Low storage limits the downside for European gas prices under any of our Persian Gulf scenarios."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that accelerating AI adoption, resilient growth and broadening earnings are supporting global equities into Q4 2026. The bank has recently added exposure to global stocks, favouring the US and Asia, while keeping sector diversification. Attractive real yields in bonds, plus Gold and alternative assets, are seen as key portfolio stabilisers and income sources.
AI, earnings and multi-asset positioning
"We hope our four investment themes for the coming quarter can help you make sense of a fast-changing world and position your portfolio for the opportunities it presents. Our team is ready to help you put these themes into action."
"Heading into the final quarter of 2026, that dichotomy remains in place: AI continues to be a key source of market optimism, while headline risks remain elevated. The situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, inflation uncertainty is lingering and the US mid-term elections are looming. These forces will continue to move markets, providing both risks and opportunities."
"We believe earnings growth will continue to broaden beyond the tech sector and US stocks. Asia is a key beneficiary of global chip demand and is at the forefront of data centre expansion, playing a strategic role in the global AI supply chain. AI adoption is also boosting productivity around the world – including in Europe."
"Beyond AI, defence spending and US re-industrialisation are also contributing to wider opportunities in Financials, Materials and Energy across regions, supporting diversification. Therefore, we’ve recently added exposure to global equities, favouring the US and Asia, while maintaining a broad sector allocation. The opportunity set extends to bonds, where attractive real yields offer both income and portfolio resilience against market volatility."
"Our exposure to non-traditional assets, such as gold, infrastructure and alternative assets, has worked well, providing a valuable counterbalance during periods of market uncertainty when equities and bonds come under pressure. Among alternative assets, private assets can open up a wider range of opportunities beyond public markets."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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