Forex News
- AUD/USD gains ground to around 0.7155 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Trump said there is “no time frame” for the conflict with Iran.
- Australian preliminary PMIs climbed back into expansion in April.
The AUD/USD pair gains momentum near 0.7155 during the early Asian session on Thursday. US President Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran revives risk appetites, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD). The preliminary reading of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due later on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request as he waits for a unified proposal from Iran. This development eases fears of a renewed conflict that had pushed energy prices sharply higher.
However, tensions remain high as Tehran keeps a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage through the trade route and firing on ships. The speaker of the Iranian parliament and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be “impossible” while the US and Israel committed “flagrant” breaches of the ceasefire, including the US naval blockade.
Signs of a prolonged war in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair.
Data released by S&P Global on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 51.0 in April, compared to 49.8 in March. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P Global Services PMI rose to 50.3 in April from the previous reading of 46.3, while the Composite PMI rose to 50.1 in April versus 46.6 prior.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The White House said that US President Donald Trump has not set a deadline on Iran submitting a peace proposal, the Guardian reported on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Trump extended the ceasefire and vowed to continue the US blockade on Iranian ports.
The speaker of the Iranian parliament and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that reopening the strait of Hormuz would be “impossible” while the US and Israel committed “flagrant” breaches of the ceasefire, including the US naval blockade.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.83% on the day at $91.35.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold price edges lower to around $4,730 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Trump said no firm deadline for the Iran proposal.
- Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the nearly two-month war.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $4,730 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal declines as traders remain cautious over US-Iran peace talks to end the nearly two-month war that has intensified global inflation concerns.
US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire agreed on April 7 would stay in place indefinitely while Washington waits for Iran to submit a new peace proposal, though Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently. US Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad on Tuesday to continue talks, before it became clear Iran would not send its own delegation.
Despite a ceasefire extension, tensions remain critical due to a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace talks. Ongoing disruptions in the key waterwall have boosted energy costs, which stoke inflation fears and raise the bar for cutting rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Optimism over peace talks or any signs of easing worries of further escalation in the Middle East conflict could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 51.0 in April versus 49.8 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global showed on Thursday.
The Australia’s S&P Global Services PMI climbed to 50.3 in April from the previous reading of 46.3, while the Composite PMI rose to 50.1 in April versus 46.6 prior.
Market reaction
At the press time, the AUD/USD pair is up 0.08% on the day to trade at 0.7160.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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