Forex News
- WTI recovers from a three-month low of $71.94 reached on Wednesday.
- Oil prices fell as advancing US-Iran peace talks led more commercial tankers to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE oil exports rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels using pipelines, storage, and alternative routes.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price continues its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around $72.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. WTI oil price recovers after hitting a three-month low of $71.94, but stays in negative territory.
Crude oil prices declined as a growing number of commercial tankers resumed passage through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by breakthroughs in US-Iran peace negotiations. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced it has received crucial security guarantees, a move expected to allow hundreds of trapped vessels to exit the Persian Gulf and facilitate the evacuation of thousands of stranded seafarers.
Simultaneously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a sharp recovery in UAE oil exports for early June, which rebounded to nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels by leveraging pipelines, storage hubs, and alternative shipping corridors.
Global oil supply expectations received an additional boost from a new 60-day US waiver permitting international buyers and American refiners to legally purchase Iranian crude and refined products. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have initiated talks on a collaborative management framework for the Strait of Hormuz. While intended to organize transit, the inclusion of potential fee structures in these discussions has sparked market anxieties that Tehran might impose new passage charges on shipping lines.
Despite this diplomatic momentum, the long-term durability of the peace accord remains highly uncertain. Iran’s chief negotiator issued a stark warning that the strategic waterway will remain firmly under Iranian oversight and will never return to its pre-war status. Parallel diplomatic tracks are moving forward elsewhere, however, as Washington hosts a fresh round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon aimed at brokering a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hezbollah forces.
The overall geopolitical outlook is further complicated by conflicting statements regarding Iran's nuclear compliance. US President Donald Trump announced that Tehran had "fully and completely" agreed to reopen its facilities to international nuclear inspectors. This optimism was quickly muted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who clarified that substantive negotiations over the nuclear program have not actually commenced.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- GBP/USD declines to near 1.3195 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister on Monday, raising political risk and weighing on the British Pound.
- Markets adjusted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
The GBP/USD pair loses traction to around 1.3195 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The British Pound (GBP) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political instability following Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister. Traders brace for the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is due later on Thursday.
The UK was plunged into yet another political crisis as Keir Starmer resigned on Monday under intense pressure following Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election last week. His Labour Party will now need to select a new leader to lead the country.
“Markets will be focused on Burnham’s views on fiscal policy and whether there will be any relaxation of the current fiscal rules,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists, including Kristina Clifton. “A loosening in fiscal rules would likely be poorly received by the UK bond market,” and weigh on the pound, they said.
Furthermore, a weaker-than-expected UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading contributed to the Cable’s downside. UK private sector activity contracted for a second straight month in June. The flash Composite PMI fell to 49.4 from 49.7 in May. This figure registered a 14-month low and below the 50 line, which indicated activity among goods producers is generally declining. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI eased to a three-month low of 53.1 in June from 53.9 in the previous reading.
Traders reassess the timing of possible US rate hikes after hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in nearly an 86.1% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"The dollar's strength right now, at the end of the day, it's still hawkishness, if you look at Fed expectations with Fed funds futures right now, they are some of the highest odds that we've seen in a while," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in Stamford, Connecticut.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- AUD/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day and reacts little to Australia’s mixed CPI data.
- A tech-driven selloff in global equity markets and the Fed’s hawkish tilt lend support to the USD.
- Conflicting messages on Iran’s nuclear issues further benefit the buck and weigh on spot prices.
The AUD/USD pair turns lower for the third straight day following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6920-0.6925 area and drops to a fresh low since April 7 on Wednesday. Bears now await a sustained breakdown and acceptance below the 0.6900 mark before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from a four-year peak.
Following a rather muted reaction to mixed Australian consumer inflation figures, the AUD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers and seems vulnerable to slide further in the face of a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% in May, with the annual rate easing from 4.2% to 4.0%, or the slowest pace in three months. However, the trimmed mean CPI rose 0.4% in May and lifted the annual core rate to 3.6%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated earlier this month that it will not hesitate to tighten further if inflation remains above its target band of 2% to 3%. Moreover, traders are still pricing in a roughly 15 basis point (bps) of additional tightening for the remainder of the year. This, however, does little to provide any meaningful boost to the Australian Dollar (AUD) as a tech-driven global equity selloff and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook continues to boost the safe-haven USD.
In fact, nine of the Fed's 19 committee members believed that they would need to raise the policy rate this year to combat sticky inflation, prompting investors to ramp up their bets for at least one rate hike, either in September or December. Adding to this, mixed US-Iran messages on Tehran's nuclear program keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and lift the USD to a fresh high since May 2025. This, in turn, exerts pressure on the AUD/USD pair and backs the case for a further depreciating move.
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.90% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.34% | 1.44% | 1.40% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | -0.90% | -0.90% | -0.70% | -0.51% | 0.59% | 0.46% | -0.47% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.90% | -0.04% | 0.34% | 1.43% | 1.36% | 0.40% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.70% | 0.04% | 0.15% | 1.28% | 1.23% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.34% | 0.51% | -0.34% | -0.15% | 1.11% | 1.08% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -1.44% | -0.59% | -1.43% | -1.28% | -1.11% | -0.07% | -1.01% | |
| NZD | -1.40% | -0.46% | -1.36% | -1.23% | -1.08% | 0.07% | -0.95% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | 0.47% | -0.40% | -0.21% | -0.05% | 1.01% | 0.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,397.88 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,536.40 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 144,611.40 per tola from INR 146,222.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,397.88 |
10 Grams | 123,982.80 |
Tola | 144,611.40 |
Troy Ounce | 385,617.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EURJPY remains under near-term bearish pressure, trading below key EMAs.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 36, edging toward oversold territory.
- The currency cross is testing its symmetrical triangle's lower boundary near 183.50.
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is extending a corrective phase below the short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite intraday stabilization. The cross is capped by the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) near 184.28 and the nine-period EMA around 184.62, while the 50-period EMA higher up at 184.99 reinforces the overhead supply zone.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, edging toward oversold territory and hinting that downside momentum may be losing some intensity even as price remains pressured beneath these trend indicators.
The EUR/JPY cross is currently testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 183.50, a critical inflection point where buyers are attempting to defend support and spark a bounce back toward the upper descending resistance line. However, a failure to hold this level would signal buyer exhaustion, allowing sellers to fully take control of the cross's broader structure.
The intraday dynamics heavily favor the bears, as the price is currently trading below the session VWAP. This positioning gives the average seller the upper hand. If the price attempts to bounce, institutional sellers are highly likely to supply liquidity right at this VWAP level to exit at "fair value," making it a formidable intraday ceiling to break.
When looking at the daily pattern alongside Wednesday's price action, the market appears to be in the middle of a breakdown attempt fueled by aggressive shorting. A confirmed bearish breakdown will trigger if the price stays below the VWAP and breaks the triangle's rising support line on a surge of volume. Conversely, if buyers step in aggressively and reclaim the 184.28 level, it would signal a strong intraday reversal, meaning the dip was likely just a trap to clean out stop-losses. Until the EUR/JPY cross can regain that VWAP level, the immediate bias remains skewed to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.02% | 0.15% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.18% | 0.31% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.13% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.14% | 0.25% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.14% | 0.12% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | -0.15% | -0.20% | -0.31% | -0.25% | -0.12% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/USD attracts some follow-through sellers for the third straight day amid a bullish USD.
- Rising Fed rate hike bets and mixed US-Iran messages push the USD to over a one-year high.
- Oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart warrant caution before positioning for further losses.
The EUR/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and drops to over a one-year low during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1365 area, down nearly 0.15% for the day, and seem vulnerable to slide further amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).
Traders have ramped up expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year to combat sticky inflation. Furthermore, mixed US-Iran messages over Tehran's nuclear program keep geopolitical risk premiums in play, lifting the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to a 13-month high. This overshadows the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakdown below the 1.1500 psychological mark favor bearish traders. Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain depressed. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) is lingering in oversold territory near 21, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure.
That said, the deeply oversold RSI and negative but stabilizing MACD readings hint that sellers may soon face fatigue, making it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for further losses. Any attempted recovery, however, might continue to face stiff resistance near the 100-day SMA at 1.1544 . The EUR/USD pair would need to reclaim this level to ease the current downward pressure and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.16% | 1.78% | 0.81% | 1.58% | 2.36% | 3.16% | 2.19% | |
| EUR | -2.16% | -0.38% | -1.49% | -0.58% | 0.20% | 0.97% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -1.78% | 0.38% | -1.04% | -0.19% | 0.59% | 1.39% | 0.40% | |
| JPY | -0.81% | 1.49% | 1.04% | 0.89% | 1.65% | 2.47% | 1.48% | |
| CAD | -1.58% | 0.58% | 0.19% | -0.89% | 0.77% | 1.57% | 0.60% | |
| AUD | -2.36% | -0.20% | -0.59% | -1.65% | -0.77% | 0.79% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | -3.16% | -0.97% | -1.39% | -2.47% | -1.57% | -0.79% | -0.97% | |
| CHF | -2.19% | -0.03% | -0.40% | -1.48% | -0.60% | 0.19% | 0.97% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF reached a seven-month high of 0.8107 on Wednesday.
- The US Dollar rises due to robust domestic economic data alongside a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape.
- The SNB raised its inflation forecast and reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in forex markets to curb Franc strength.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the sixth successive day, reaching a seven-month high of 0.8107 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair rises as the Greenback strengthens on the complex Middle East situation. Traders will likely observe the Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations for June and the Q2 SNB Quarterly Bulletin due later in the day.
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran had "fully and completely" agreed to open its facilities to nuclear inspections, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly tempered expectations by clarifying that substantive nuclear negotiations have not actually begun.
Additionally, Iran’s chief negotiator issued a stern warning that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status and will remain firmly under Iranian oversight. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts showed signs of progress elsewhere as Washington hosted a fresh round of talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at securing a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
June’s flash estimate for the US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52.2, comfortably beating May’s reading of 51.5 and signaling healthy business expansion. The US manufacturing sector showed remarkable resilience, with output jumping to 55.7 from the previous month's 55.1, easily outperforming forecasts of 54.8. Simultaneously, the Services PMI printed at 51.3, ticking up from May's 50.7 and clearing the consensus estimate of 51.0, proving that demand in the broader service economy remains incredibly sticky.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets adjusted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in a nearly 86.1% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0% for the fourth straight meeting in June, maintaining its current stance, which continues to support both price stability and economic growth. However, the central bank raised its inflation forecast and reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to curb the Franc’s strength.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- US Dollar Index reached a fresh 13-month high of 101.45 on Wednesday.
- The Greenback gains ground due to robust domestic economic data alongside a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape.
- The US S&P Global Composite PMI climbed to 52.2, beating May's 51.5 and signaling healthy business expansion.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, holds ground for the third consecutive day and is trading near a fresh 13-month high of 101.45 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The Greenback gains ground on a combination of robust domestic economic data and a complex, mixed geopolitical landscape. Traders are carefully navigating conflicting signals regarding a potential United States (US)-Iran diplomatic breakthrough. While US President Donald Trump stated that Iran had "fully and completely" agreed to open its facilities to nuclear inspections, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly tempered expectations by clarifying that substantive nuclear negotiations have not actually begun.
Additionally, Iran’s chief negotiator issued a stern warning that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war status and will remain firmly under Iranian oversight. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts showed signs of progress elsewhere as Washington hosted a fresh round of talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at securing a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hezbollah.
On US data, strong macroeconomic indicators that reinforced the narrative of "US exceptionalism." June’s flash estimate for the US S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52.2, comfortably beating May’s reading of 51.5 and signaling healthy business expansion.
The US manufacturing sector showed remarkable resilience, with output jumping to 55.7 from the previous month's 55.1, easily outperforming forecasts of 54.8. Simultaneously, the Services PMI printed at 51.3, ticking up from May's 50.7 and clearing the consensus estimate of 51.0, proving that demand in the broader service economy remains incredibly sticky. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (PCE) data will take center stage later on Thursday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets adjusted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in a nearly 86.1% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- USD/CAD softesn to near 1.4205 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Iran’s Pezeshkian said no negotiation on ballistic missiles.
- Traders raise their bets on a US rate hike this year.
The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.4205 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the potential downside for the pair might be limited amid rising expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (PCE) data will take center stage later on Thursday.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that Tehran’s ballistic missile program will not be included in negotiations with the United States (US), per BBC.
US President Donald Trump rebuffed Iran’s claim that no visit has been scheduled for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, insisting Tehran had already agreed to the arrangement. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace deal could support the US Dollar (US) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Markets adjusted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Fed, lifting the Greenback. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 86.1% chance of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before last week’s FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday that global imbalances of financial flows, led by China's export surplus and the reliance of the United States on foreign capital, and may be fuelling financial stability risks."
The Loonie has been on the backfoot for several weeks with well-documented reasoning of widening yield differentials in favor of the USD, slowing growth, trade uncertainty or the uneasy status quo and a mostly asymmetric risk response to the Iran war," said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- AUD/JPY experiences volatility amid cooling Australian inflation.
- Australia's annual CPI rose 4.0% while monthly prices fell 0.7%, both slowing much faster than markets expected.
- JPY defense prompts government intervention and rate hike momentum, highlighting building pressures for a tighter monetary policy.
AUD/JPY remains steady after six days of losses, trading around 0.6920 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross moves little as the Australian Dollar (AUD) experiences minor volatility following the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Australian inflation slowed more than anticipated in May, offering some relief to policymakers. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in the previous month and lower than the 4.4% market consensus. On a monthly basis, consumer prices actually fell by 0.7%, a sharp reversal from the prior month's 0.4% increase and a softer reading than the forecasted 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred core inflation metric, the Trimmed Mean CPI, ticked up 0.4% for the month and rose 3.6% on an annual basis.
Over in Japan, momentum is building for tighter monetary policy just as government officials step up warnings to protect a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that authorities will take appropriate action against excessive foreign exchange volatility if necessary. This stance was underscored by a high-level call between Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, keeping the market on high alert for official Yen-buying operations.
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from its June meeting showed that a majority of board members supported raising the policy interest rate, noting that inflation risks are broadening and the underlying CPI is sustainably approaching its 2% target.
As a result of these conflicting forces, the upside for the AUD/JPY cross remains firmly capped. The combination of cooling Australian inflation, which dampens the need for higher RBA rate hikes, and heightened fears of direct currency intervention by Japanese authorities has prompted traders to handle the currency cross with extreme caution.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a comprehensive basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator is the primary measure of headline inflation after a new methodology was applied to transition from quarterly to monthly readings, applying to data from April 2024 onwards. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Jun 24, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4%
Consensus: 4.4%
Previous: 4.2%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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