Forex News
- NASDAQ climbs to its highest since November 4, with SPX and DJIA also up.
- Nvidia rebounds 2.9%, and Anthropic sets an IPO worth up to $1.4 trillion.
- Six Fed officials speak Thursday before October producer prices on Friday.
The more artificial intelligence (AI) a US index holds, the more of the fall that began on November 5 it has now recovered. The NASDAQ 100 touched just under 28,600, above where it started that session, and is trading near 28,400. The S&P 500, just above 7,600, has won back about four fifths of the fall, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, near 52,500, about three fifths.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is up nearly 25% after third-quarter revenue beat forecasts and it raised its 2026 revenue and operating income guidance. CoreWeave Chief Executive Intrator told CNBC its data centre build plans aren't being delayed, the worry that started the November 5 selling. Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO), which could value it at up to $1.4 trillion and is reported several times oversubscribed, adds demand for the AI stocks that weigh most in the NASDAQ 100.
Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.9% after losing nearly 10% over Monday and Tuesday. Morgan Stanley dropped it as a top pick on Wednesday and the House China panel gave Nvidia Chief Executive Huang until the end of the business day to respond, and the stock rose anyway. Traders still put a quarter-point Fed hike in December near 90%, but the Treasury market is shut for Veterans Day, so no yields rose against the stock rally.
On the calendar
Six Fed officials speak on Thursday, from Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 14:00 GMT to New York Fed President Williams at 23:30 GMT. Hammack voted to raise rates in October, and with a quarter-point move on December 9 priced as close to certain, the speeches bear on whether it could be a half-point.
Initial jobless claims come at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, with 195K forecast after 189K. October's Producer Price Index (PPI) is due at 13:30 GMT on Friday, forecast up 0.4% on the month after 1.3% and up 6.6% on the year after 6.3%.
On the charts
The NASDAQ 100 has recovered more than a third of its fall from the October 6 high near 31,350 to the November 5 low near 26,600. The S&P 500 has recovered more than half of its drop from just below 7,850. The Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't fall with them in October: it climbed from near 50,500 on October 1 to just under 53,800 on November 5, and it's about 1,300 points under that high.
Nasdaq 100 index, daily
Nasdaq FAQs
The Nasdaq is a stock exchange based in the US that started out life as an electronic stock quotation machine. At first, the Nasdaq only provided quotations for over-the-counter (OTC) stocks but later it became an exchange too. By 1991, the Nasdaq had grown to account for 46% of the entire US securities’ market. In 1998, it became the first stock exchange in the US to provide online trading. The Nasdaq also produces several indices, the most comprehensive of which is the Nasdaq Composite representing all 2,500-plus stocks on the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100.
The Nasdaq 100 is a large-cap index made up of 100 non-financial companies from the Nasdaq stock exchange. Although it only includes a fraction of the thousands of stocks in the Nasdaq, it accounts for over 90% of the movement. The influence of each company on the index is market-cap weighted. The Nasdaq 100 includes companies with a significant focus on technology although it also encompasses companies from other industries and from outside the US. The average annual return of the Nasdaq 100 has been 17.23% since 1986.
There are a number of ways to trade the Nasdaq 100. Most retail brokers and spread betting platforms offer bets using Contracts for Difference (CFD). For longer-term investors, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) trade like shares that mimic the movement of the index without the investor needing to buy all 100 constituent companies. An example ETF is the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). Nasdaq 100 futures contracts allow traders to speculate on the future direction of the index. Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the Nasdaq 100 at a specific price (strike price) in the future.
Many different factors drive the Nasdaq 100 but mainly it is the aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual company earnings reports. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment, which if positive drives gains. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the Nasdaq 100 as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. As such the level of inflation can be a major driver too as well as other metrics which impact on the decisions of the Fed.
- Mexican Peso recovers as USD/MXN retreats toward 18.60.
- US Core CPI holds at 0.3% MoM, reinforcing Fed tightening expectations.
- Banxico signals prolonged rate hold at 6.25% despite rising Mexican inflation.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovered some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after losing 0.45% in the previous week, following a US inflation report that was higher than expected, which increased the odds of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 18.60, down 011%.
USD/MXN retreats toward 18.60 despite strong Dollar demand
US inflation in October exceeded forecasts, but headline CPI dipped from 0.6% to 0.4% MoM. Core figures remained steady for the third straight month at 0.3% MoM, above economists' estimates of 0.2% and aligned with Fed Governor Christopher Waller prediction that if underlying inflation hit 0.3%, he could opt for a 50-basis-point rate hike.
After the report, money markets increased their bets that the Fed will raise rates 25 basis points in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs see a quarter-percentage-point hike in December
Amid tightening expectations, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against six currencies, is up 0.69% to 102.91, having previously hit an 18-month high of 102.96.
On Monday, Mexico’s National Statistics Agency, known as INEGI, revealed that October’s inflation rose from 3.45% to 3.75% YoY, above forecasts. Excluding volatile items, rose by 3.8% YoY, exceeding estimates of 3.78%. Both readings suggest that the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) rate cut last week was unjustified, despite the Governing Board recognizing that inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Banxico’s Governor Rodriguez Ceja commented that the board was considering cutting rates since October, she said in an interview with El Financiero. She added that after the cut, “maintaining the rate at its current level – 6.25% – for an extended period will support the convergence of inflation to the target and will be adequate to address external macroeconomic challenges.”
Ahead, the Mexican economic docket is quiet, with traders leaning on US dynamics. Across the northern border, the schedule will feature jobless claims, housing data, Fed speakers and producer inflation by the weekend.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.60, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds well above the triple simple moving average (SMA) cluster, now sitting near 18.01. The reclaim and extension above this medium-term trend proxy suggest dips remain supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 has eased from prior overbought extremes and now points to more balanced, but still constructive, momentum after the recent consolidation.
On the downside, the first support is located at the triple SMA area around 18.01, where a break would be needed to undermine the current positive structure and expose deeper losses. Below there, the next important floor emerges at the horizontal level of 16.89, which marks a more distant but notable demand zone; as long as price stays comfortably above these supports, the USD/MXN pair looks biased to extend higher once fresh resistance levels are established on the charts.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- GBP/JPY forms a potential bullish harami pattern, signaling renewed upside interest.
- Rising RSI supports recovery, but 212.92-213.02 SMA confluence limits gains.
- Break above 213.02 exposes 216.62 and psychological resistance at 217.00.
GBP/JPY trades choppily despite posting gains of 0.17% on Wednesday, with price action remaining within Tuesday’s daily range of 211.44-212.65, suggesting a potential ‘bullish harami’ or inside-day pattern forming near a key resistance area.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Of note, GBP/JPY bounced after testing a key support trendline near 211.33 on Monday, opening the door for a recovery. However, buyers remain reluctant to open fresh bets as key resistance emerged at the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 212.92 and 213.02, respectively. If GBP/JPY clears the latter, the next stop is the September 2 high of 216.62, ahead of buyers testing the 217.00 mark,
On the downside, the first support for GBP/JPY is Monday's low of 211.33, followed by the psychological 211.00 level. The next stop is the 50-day SMA at 210.00.
From a momentum standpoint, further upside is seen as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, and aiming upwards.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.63% | 0.50% | 0.67% | 0.41% | 0.22% | 0.67% | 0.92% | |
| EUR | -0.63% | -0.12% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.40% | 0.05% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.50% | 0.12% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.28% | 0.17% | 0.42% | |
| JPY | -0.67% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.26% | -0.44% | 0.02% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.26% | -0.18% | 0.27% | 0.51% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | 0.40% | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.18% | 0.45% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.67% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.45% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.92% | -0.29% | -0.42% | -0.25% | -0.51% | -0.70% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/USD slips below 1.1100, awaiting the daily close to confirm the breakdown.
- Bearish RSI approaches oversold territory, reinforcing persistent selling pressure.
- Sustained break below 1.1100 exposes 1.1050, 1.1000 and 1.0951.
The EUR/USD pair extends its losses below 1.1100 on Wednesday as traders digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish comments, which have increased the odds of a rate hike. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1092, its lowest level since May 2025.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD cleared a key support level, but a daily close below 1.1100 would be required, potentially paving the way for further losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and trending towards oversold territory, indicating that sellers are in control.
If EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, a move toward the May 23, 2025, swing low of 1.1050 is on the cards. The next stop is the 1.1000 psychological level, followed by the May 12, 2025, low of the day (LOD) at 1.0951.
On the upside, the first resistance is 1.1100. Once hurdled, the next stop is the day’s high of 1.1170, ahead of 1.1200. Key resistance lies above at 1.1273 on November 4, followed by 1.1300.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.67% | 0.54% | 0.69% | 0.42% | 0.25% | 0.71% | 0.98% | |
| EUR | -0.67% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.25% | -0.42% | 0.05% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | -0.54% | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.29% | 0.16% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | -0.69% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.43% | 0.04% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.42% | 0.25% | 0.13% | 0.27% | -0.16% | 0.30% | 0.57% | |
| AUD | -0.25% | 0.42% | 0.29% | 0.43% | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.74% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.46% | 0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.98% | -0.31% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.57% | -0.74% | -0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold slips below $4,000, extending losses for a second day.
- US Core CPI holds at 0.3% MoM, exceeding expectations for a third month.
- December Fed hike odds reach 87% as US Treasury yields hit 5%.
Gold (XAU/USD) price extends losses for the second straight day on Wednesday as traders fully price in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report and hawkish comments by Fed policymakers. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,999, down 0.70%.
Gold extends losses due to high US inflation, surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed rhetoric
Inflation data in the United States (US) exceeded forecasts, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.4% MoM in October, down from 0.6% but above the 0.3% estimate. However, the focal point was underlying CPI, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that he would prefer a 50 bps rate hike if core inflation reached 0.3%. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM for the third consecutive month, above estimates of 0.2%, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 bps rate increase at the December meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants price in an 87% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, and a slim 13% chance of a 0.50% hike.
Consequently, bullion prices edged lower, as the non-yielding metal tends to fare well amid lower interest rate scenarios.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 12 basis points to 5%, a tailwind for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the buck against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.67% at 102.90, a yearly high.
Other Fed officials were hawkish, with Philadelphia Fed Anna Paulson saying that the “Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens,” while Dallas Fed Lorie Logan added that it’s possible to hike rates “more rapidly.”
Conversely, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid adopted a more cautious approach, though both stressed that inflation is high. Bowman said that persistent inflation suggests there is more work to do, while Schmid said that there are concerning price trends, excluding the whole energy story.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims, housing data and Fed speeches on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI).
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold tumbles beneath $4,000, further downside eyed
Gold has cleared the $4,000 threshold, with five-day lows in sight, as sellers gain momentum. Price action shows a lower low for the third straight trading day, suggesting further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning bearish, an indication that bears are in charge.
With that said, XAU/USD's first support is the November 4 daily low of $3,919, followed by the October 30 year-to-date low of $3,879. On the flip side, the first key resistance is $4,000. A breach of the latter paves the way for a move toward the psychological $4,050 area, followed by $4,100. Above, the next area of interest is the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), at $4,177 and $4,200, respectively.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar (USD) has pushed harder, reaching levels last seen in April 2025 on the back of persistent bets over another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its December gathering.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has clinched fresh tops just pips away from the key 103.00 hurdle, a move widely underpinned by a marked rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due alongside Existing Home Sales and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. Additionally, the Fed’s Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee and Daly are expected to speak.
EUR/USD has collapsed below 1.1100, reaching levels last traded in May 2025, always on the back of the sharp rebound in the US Dollar. The ECB’s Vujčić and Lagarde will speak amid an otherwise empty domestic calendar.
GBP/USD has tumbled to four-week lows, revisiting the 1.3270-1.3260 band following the Greenback’s solid performance. Next on tap in the UK will be the RICS House Price Balance, along with the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate, flash quarterly Business Investment figures, Balance of Trade results, Construction Orders/Output, Industrial/Manufacturing Production and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.
USD/JPY has climbed further, hitting fresh two-month tops while trading closer to the key 160.00 barrier. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due, followed by Producer Prices and the speech by the BoJ’s Asada.
AUD/USD has dropped to the vicinity of 0.6840 for the first time since January on the back of the increasingly offered stance in the risk-linked universe. Next in Oz will be the Consumer Inflation Expectations tracked by the Melbourne Institute, along with the speech by the RBA’s Baker.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have regained some traction, reversing three daily pullbacks in a row and reclaiming the area beyond the $87.00 mark per barrel following the resurgence of some effervescence in the Middle East.
Gold has built on Tuesday’s retracement, slipping back to the area below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. The continuation of the bearish tone in the precious metal has followed extra gains in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board.
- USD/CHF climbs nearly 1% to a four-week high as the US Dollar extends its rally.
- Hotter-than-expected US inflation and hawkish Fed remarks fuel expectations of more aggressive rate hikes.
- The Fed-SNB policy divergence weighs on the Swiss Franc.
USD/CHF climbs nearly 1% on Wednesday, reaching a four-week high as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board following a sharp shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8335, extending gains for the second straight day.
The Greenback continues to attract buyers after hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials raised the prospect of more aggressive interest rate hikes. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.96, surpassing the previous yearly peak of 102.94 set in October.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in October, above the 0.3% forecast but down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM, matching September’s pace and beating the 0.2% forecast.
The inflation figures have added to expectations that the Fed may need to raise borrowing costs further to contain persistent price pressures. Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike in December if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson have also backed additional tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now fully price in a December rate hike, with an 87.1% probability of a 25 bps increase and a 12.9% chance of a larger 50 bps move. Traders also expect further rate increases in 2027.
Fed-SNB policy outlook keeps Swiss Franc under pressure
On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains within its price-stability range. This contrasts with growing expectations of further Fed tightening, leaving the interest rate gap between the United States and Switzerland firmly in favor of the US Dollar.
However, Swiss inflation has also started to pick up. Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 1.5% in October, its highest level in nearly three years, largely driven by higher energy prices.
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said earlier this month the central bank would not hesitate to adjust monetary policy if price stability comes under threat. He noted that inflation in Switzerland is currently driven mainly by fuel and energy prices, adding that policymakers will closely monitor the risk of second-round inflation effects. Schlegel also reiterated that the policy rate remains the SNB's main tool, although foreign exchange interventions could be used if necessary.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.64% | 0.52% | 0.66% | 0.41% | 0.24% | 0.68% | 1.00% | |
| EUR | -0.64% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.39% | 0.07% | 0.36% | |
| GBP | -0.52% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.12% | -0.30% | 0.18% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.66% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.24% | -0.42% | 0.05% | 0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.24% | -0.18% | 0.29% | 0.58% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | 0.39% | 0.30% | 0.42% | 0.18% | 0.49% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | -0.68% | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.49% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -1.00% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.33% | -0.58% | -0.76% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- US Dollar Index hits a fresh yearly high as hot US inflation and hawkish Fed remarks fuel rate-hike bets.
- DXY breaks above a bullish flag pattern, with the RSI at 63 signaling positive momentum.
- A sustained break above 103.00 could open the door toward 104.00, while 102.20 offers initial support.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises for a second straight day on Wednesday, hitting a fresh year-to-date high as hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation and calls from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for further tightening fuel bets on more aggressive rate hikes.
At the time of writing, the DXY, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.96, surpassing the previous yearly peak of 102.94 set in October.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in October, above the 0.3% forecast but down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM, matching September’s pace and beating the 0.2% forecast. Traders now fully price in a December rate hike, with an 87.1% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase and a 12.9% chance of a larger 50 bps move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Dollar strength underpinned as Fed hawkishness and curve flattening support DXY
Analysts at ING highlight that the latest US inflation surprise and policy rhetoric have materially shifted rate expectations, noting that the Fed’s Chris Waller “tossed a hawkish grenade into money markets early yesterday with his threat to vote for a 50bp rate hike at the 9 December FOMC meeting.” They add that this stance was “conditioned…on the October CPI data coming in hot for the third month in a row, which it subsequently did.”
Against this backdrop, ING argues that the rates backdrop is constructive for the Dollar, stressing that “bearish flattening of the US yield curve as the Fed takes rates into restrictive territory is normally good for the dollar against activity currencies.” With “what could be an accelerating US labour market, core inflation well above target and a Fed ready to pull the trigger again,” the bank says it “expect[s] the dollar to stay strong and explore the top end of trading ranges over the coming weeks.” In index terms, ING concludes that “DXY should remain near recent highs and could be retesting big resistance at 102.85/103.00 sooner rather than later.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, the latest leg higher confirms a breakout above the upper boundary of the bullish flag pattern. The index also trades above its 21-, 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Together, these signals suggest the bulls hold the upper hand.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 sits in positive territory without yet being overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that upside momentum is stabilizing after the recent consolidation.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 103. A daily close above that level could open the way toward 104, followed by 105. On the downside, initial support comes in near 102.20 at the former upper boundary of the bullish flag.
Below that, the 102 round level is reinforced by the 21-day SMA at 101.97. A deeper pullback would expose the 50-day SMA at 101.24, near the lower boundary of the bullish flag, followed by the 100-day SMA at 100.77.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.67% | 0.53% | 0.69% | 0.41% | 0.21% | 0.71% | 0.99% | |
| EUR | -0.67% | -0.14% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.47% | 0.03% | 0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.53% | 0.14% | 0.17% | -0.12% | -0.33% | 0.17% | 0.46% | |
| JPY | -0.69% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.28% | -0.48% | 0.00% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | 0.26% | 0.12% | 0.28% | -0.19% | 0.29% | 0.58% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | 0.47% | 0.33% | 0.48% | 0.19% | 0.50% | 0.78% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.01% | -0.29% | -0.50% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | -0.99% | -0.32% | -0.46% | -0.30% | -0.58% | -0.78% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- NZD/USD loses 0.68% on Wednesday as the US Dollar strengthens following higher-than-expected US inflation data.
- US consumer prices rise more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening.
- Falling Oil prices ease inflationary pressures in New Zealand, reducing the likelihood of interest rate hikes.
NZD/USD comes under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, falling 0.68% on the day to trade around 0.5565 at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles against the US Dollar (USD), as stronger-than-expected US inflation data fuels expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, released on Tuesday, showed that headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM in October, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from September's 0.6% increase. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% forecast and matching September's reading. These figures suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent, strengthening the case for a more restrictive monetary policy.
Following the inflation release, investors sharply increased their expectations of a December interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign approximately an 85% chance to a rate increase at the Fed's next meeting, reflecting growing concerns about persistent inflation.
The inflation surprise also triggered a sell-off in US government bonds on Tuesday, pushing the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield above 5%. Higher bond yields increase the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets, adding further pressure on the NZD/USD pair.
On the New Zealand side, the Kiwi faces additional headwinds from declining Oil prices, which could help ease inflationary pressures and reduce the need for further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Lower energy costs could contribute to a moderation in consumer prices, encouraging investors to scale back expectations of future RBNZ interest rate hikes. This divergence between monetary policy expectations in the United States and New Zealand continues to weigh on the currency pair.
Meanwhile, political developments in New Zealand remain in focus as investors monitor ongoing coalition negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the Finance Minister position.
Against this backdrop, the combination of a stronger US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and diminishing expectations of RBNZ monetary tightening could continue to limit the New Zealand Dollar's recovery prospects.
NZD/USD technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5564, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5595 and the 200-period SMA at 0.5609. The pair is pressing the lower end of its recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) slides in oversold territory near 25, hinting that downside pressure persists even as the risk of a corrective bounce starts to build.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.5573, followed by 0.5586 ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.5595 and the 200-period SMA at 0.5609, a dense supply zone that would need to give way to ease the current bearish tone. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 0.5555, with subsequent floors at 0.5544 and 0.5527; a break under these levels would expose a deeper decline, while holding above them could allow an oversold rebound toward the nearby resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- Silver gains 1.60% on Wednesday despite rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar.
- Higher-than-expected US inflation reinforces expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank warn that persistent inflation could keep monetary policy restrictive.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances on Wednesday, gaining 1.60% to trade around $52.35 at the time of writing. The precious metal strengthens despite rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD), as hotter-than-expected inflation data fuels expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from September's 0.6% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast and matching the previous month's reading.
These figures reinforce concerns about persistent inflation and encourage investors to anticipate more aggressive monetary tightening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now fully price in a December Fed rate hike, with an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase and an 12% chance of a larger 50 bps move.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously indicated that a 50 bps increase could be necessary if October core inflation reached 0.3% or higher, a threshold now met by the latest figures. The inflation surprise triggered a sharp sell-off in US government bonds on Tuesday, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly above 5%.
Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that core inflation has increased by 0.3% for three consecutive months, bringing its three-month annualized rate to 3.75%, the fastest pace since April 2024. The bank considers that this persistence makes it increasingly difficult to dismiss inflationary pressures as temporary.
Similarly, Commerzbank economists warn that underlying inflation remains too elevated and is no longer declining. The German bank expects inflation to remain persistent throughout 2026, with a potential easing only emerging in 2027, amid resilient economic activity and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.68% on Wednesday, extending its recovery for a second consecutive day. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger Greenback generally weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver. Nevertheless, the metal's advance suggests resilient buying interest, although expectations of further Fed tightening could limit additional gains.
Silver technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $52.31. The metal holds above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $51.52, but it is capped by the 100-period SMA at $52.37, leaving the near-term tone neutral to slightly heavy while price consolidates between these key averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.93 sits just below the midline, hinting that bullish momentum has faded after the recent spike toward $53.00, with neither side currently showing decisive control.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 100-period SMA at $52.37, with further hurdles at the horizontal levels of $53.20 and $53.72, which guard the recent recovery highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $51.52, ahead of the horizontal floor at $51.10; a sustained break beneath these levels would open the door to a deeper correction, while holding above them would keep XAG/USD confined in a range beneath the nearby moving-average cap.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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