Forex News
- The Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers amid a cheerful market mood.
- Traders trim hawkish Fed bets amid signs of soft US labor demand.
- RBA’s June policy meeting minutes showed that officials kept the door open for more interest rate hikes.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up against its major currency pairs, trading 0.23% higher to near 0.6940 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair gains as a slight decline in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) prospects has lifted market sentiment.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.18% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.18% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.24% | 0.30% | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.00% | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at around 7,500 at press time, reflecting a risk-on market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.75.
The odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike in the September policy meeting have diminished to 53.2% from almost 64% seen on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets after the release of weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday, which showed that the economy created 57K fresh jobs in June, significantly lower than estimates of 110K. Also, the May data was revised lower to 129K from 172K.
On the domestic front, hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, as released in the June policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, have also strengthened the antipodean. “Will take necessary steps to ensure price stability, including potential rate hikes,” RBA policy minutes showed.
The remarks in RBA policy meeting minutes were in contrast with market expectations, which were signaling that the central bank’s monetary tightening cycle had come to an end.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that weaker US non-farm payrolls and reduced Fed rate hike expectations weighed on the Dollar, supporting the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY fell sharply as markets priced a smaller cumulative hike by year-end and speculated about possible FX intervention. The bank expects US key interest rates to stay unchanged in 2026, limiting upside for USD/JPY.
Yen benefits from softer US data
"US job growth in June fell short of expectations. Only 57,000 new jobs were created, and payrolls for the previous two months were revised significantly downward."
"The Fed funds futures are pricing in 30bp hike by year-end compared to 36bp on Wednesday."
"Pressure for an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in late July continues to ease. We continue to expect US key interest rates to remain unchanged this year."
"The USD weakened, gold rallied, and the yen strengthened on renewed speculation of possible FX intervention."
"In FX, USD/JPY fell sharply by 150 pips to 161.10 on the softer USD and lingering intervention speculation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has staged a sharp recovery against the US Dollar, recovering from its weakest level in 40 years at around 162.50 to the 160.00-161.00 handle.
This reversal is fueled by a double-whammy of macro catalysts: a significantly weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report and intense market speculation of unconfirmed, "stealth" foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF).
As global markets recalibrate their expectations for US monetary policy heading into the second half of 2026, the near-term path for the USD/JPY currency cross is becoming increasingly defined by low summer liquidity and aggressive positioning shakeouts.
Soft US labor data and unconfirmed intervention ambush Yen shorts
According to currency analysts at MUFG, the unexpected cooling of the US labor market (where payrolls grew by a meager 57,000 against a consensus expectation of 110,000) has effectively taken the immediate pressure off the Federal Reserve to consider near-term interest rate hikes.
This macroeconomic soft patch could have created an ideal window for Japanese authorities to quietly step into the market to punish overextended speculative short positions without providing prior warnings.
While it was not officially confirmed whether Japanese authorities intervened yesterday to bring USD/JPY lower, our bias is as such that intervention if it has indeed started may continue for a while more in order to help flush out speculative positions.
Repriced Fed expectations put a firm ceiling on USD/JPY upside
The research team at Commerzbank underscores that the combination of downward job revisions and a soft June US payrolls print has forced fixed-income markets to trim cumulative Fed tightening bets for the remainder of the year. With the Fed funds futures lowering priced-in hikes from 36 basis points to 30 basis points, the macro incentive to buy the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is fracturing.
Pressure for an interest rate hike at the Fed meeting in late July continues to ease. We continue to expect US key interest rates to remain unchanged this year.
Has the USD/JPY pair reached a peak?
The banks project that the Yen is likely to maintain its newly recovered footing. MUFG advises market participants to remain highly cautious, noting that an upcoming period of low holiday liquidity in the US provides the perfect tactical backdrop for Japanese authorities to extend its intervention campaign and clean out remaining speculative bears. Commerzbank points out that because US benchmark interest rates are projected to sit completely unchanged for the rest of 2026, the structural upside for USD/JPY is effectively capped, leaving the pair highly vulnerable to further downward adjustments on any upcoming US inflation misses.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on July 3 at 11:15 GMT to say, in the first paragraph, that the Japanese Yen rose up to the 161.00-160.00 area, not down.)
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that softer US labour data should push markets to reprice Federal Reserve policy, shifting from rate hikes toward a greater risk of cuts. He highlights weaker nonfarm payroll trends, deteriorating sentiment indicators and receding inflation risks. MUFG expects the Fed to stay on hold, with scope for a retracement of the recent US Dollar rally.
Weaker jobs data challenges Fed hikes
"We have stated here recently and in the Foreign Exchange Outlook released on Wednesday that market pricing on Fed policy had become excessive with close to two rates hikes priced by March 2027. The nonfarm payrolls data for June, released yesterday, should be a key catalyst for market pricing reverting to what we believe is a more realistic outcome – pricing a greater risk of a rate cut rather than rate hikes."
"So the nine FOMC members that indicated the need for at least one rate certainly do not have the same justifications for that now. The jobs market is weaker than was implied at the FOMC meeting and as Fed Chair Warsh stated in Sintra this week, the inflation risks have receded over the last four weeks."
"Based on OIS pricing, there is still a 20% probability of a 25bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on 29th July and a 60% probability of a hike by September. The rates curve remains over-priced and market participants appear to be placing too much emphasis on Warsh’s comments at his first FOMC press conference."
"A retracement of the post-FOMC US dollar rally certainly looks achievable over the near-term with the dollar overbought and positioning indicating longs were quickly extended. There is nothing next week to turn momentum back in favour of the dollar which means the next big event-day will be 14th July when we get the June CPI data and the semi-annual testimony from Fed Chair Warsh."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD price action after the US jobs report underlines the lack of a strong bullish narrative for the Euro, as markets doubt further ECB hikes. Softer inflation and low Oil prices weigh on expectations. ING warns markets may price out ECB tightening before Fed tightening and expects EUR/USD rallies to fade above 1.150-1.153, with a move above 1.16 only later in summer.
Limited upside as ECB doubts grow
"Price action in EUR/USD in the hours after the US jobs report highlights the lack of a convincing bullish narrative for the euro. That is largely explained by markets starting to doubt the ECB will hike again after all, with pricing for September at 11bp and for year-end at 17bp."
"While ECB speakers have generally tried to hang on to a hawkish tone, President Christine Lagarde and others have conceded that the policy response may not need to be that aggressive from here. Lower-than-expected June CPI this week and oil prices staying stubbornly low mean that some second-round effects on core inflation may well be needed for the ECB to hike again."
"The risks are that markets price out all ECB tightening before doing the same for Fed tightening. While the impact beyond the near term can still be a net positive for EUR/USD (which often responds asymmetrically stronger to the Fed), this dynamic argues against a fast return to 1.16-1.17 from here."
"We expect rallies to start getting tired beyond 1.150-1.153 in current conditions, and forecast a return above 1.16 only late in the summer."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.60 per troy ounce, up 2.72% from the $60.94 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 11.94% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 62.60 |
1 Gram | 2.01 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.65 on Friday, down from 67.65 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Wells Fargo Economics expects Mexico’s June CPI to confirm gradual disinflation, with headline and core inflation easing but services prices still sticky. Banxico is seen maintaining the Overnight Rate at 6.50% through year-end and into 2027, though risks tilt toward cuts if growth disappoints and disinflation broadens further in coming quarters.
CPI path points to extended pause
"Mexico’s June CPI release next week should provide more clarity on whether disinflation is broadening enough to reopen the door to rate cuts. Based on the mid-month data, we expect headline and core inflation to slow to 3.75% year over year and 4.10%, respectively, from 3.94% and 4.19% in May."
"At its June meeting, Banxico’s Governing Board unanimously held the Overnight Rate at 6.50% and suggested that the current policy setting remains appropriate for an extended period. Policymakers also revised their Q2-2026 headline inflation forecast slightly lower, while the core forecast moved slightly higher."
"Our base case remains for Banxico to stay on hold through year-end and into 2027. That said, risks are tilted toward a cut rather than a hike. Banxico expects growth to rebound in Q2 after contracting in Q1, then expand at a steady pace. If activity instead continues to struggle and disinflation broadens further, a rate cut could come by year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale notes that CEE FX is being shaped by diverging inflation and policy signals across the region. Polish inflation’s return to the NBP target has strengthened the case for a final 25 basis point rate cut this year, while EUR/CZK is retracing after CNB Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said June’s rate hike was pre-emptive and one-off. In Hungary, EUR/HUF reversed lower as Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the country could meet euro adoption criteria by 2030.
Polish inflation return boosts easing odds
"EUR/HUF reversed lower after testing the 50dma at 356.91 after PM Magyar said Hungary could meet the EU economic criteria for euro adoption by 2030 despite projections for the deficit to widening above 7% this year."
"Meeting the criteria could bolster business, investor and consumer confidence, but euro adoption would remain a separate political decision requiring public consultation."
"In Poland, inflation unexpectedly returned to the NBP target of 2.5% in June. This increases the likelihood of a final 25bp rate cut this year rather than next year. EUR/PLN briefly rallied above 4.30."
"EUR/CZK retracing below 24.20. CNB deputy governor Zamrazilova reiterated that the rate increase last month was pre-emptive and a one-off. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI struggles to attract buyers and languishes near its lowest level since late February.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
- A break below 78.6% Fibo. is needed to reaffirm the negative bias amid oversold RSI.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $69.25 area on Friday, its modest bounce from the lowest level since late February touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades just above mid-$68.00s, up around 0.30% for the day, though it remains on track to register losses for the fourth consecutive week.
From a technical perspective, Crude Oil prices maintain a bearish near-term tone below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2025-March 2026 rally. That said, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits in oversold territory near 29 and keeps the risk of a short-lived corrective bounce, warranting caution before placing fresh bearish bets.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure. However, a sustained break below the 78.6% Fibo. level, near $67.50 is needed to back the case for an extension of the bearish trend towards a deeper floor seen near the prior cycle low level of $55.12.
On the topside, any recovery attempt is likely to face immediate resistance at the 200-day SMA around $73.19, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $77.23. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 50.0% level at $84.05, with higher barriers aligned at the 38.2% retracement around $90.88 and the 23.6% level near $99.33.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD trades subduedly near 1.4175 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure.
- Traders trim hawkish Fed bets, following the release of the weak US NFP data for June.
- Lower oil prices continue to keep the Canadian Dollar on the back foot.
The USD/CAD pair reflects a subdued performance near 1.4175 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) faces selling pressure due to easing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) prospects.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.14% lower to near 100.70.
Weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June has forced traders to reconsider hawkish Fed interest rate expectations. The data showed on Thursday that the economy created 57K fresh jobs in June, fewer than 110K estimates.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US ISM Services PMI data for June, which will be released on Friday.
On the Canadian Dollar (CAD) front, the currency has remained under pressure as oil prices have returned to pre-Middle East war levels, given that Canada is a net oil exporter. Oil prices have faced pressure as Oman has touted progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran.
USD/CAD technical analysis
USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.4179, but holds a clear bullish bias as price sits above both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA at 1.4108 and the 50-day EMA at 1.3965 reinforce an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14), hovering just below the overbought region around 70, suggests persistent but stretched upside momentum.
On the downside, the pair could extend its correction to the 20-day EMA near 1.4110 as the US Dollar is under pressure. Given that the broader outlook is bullish, the odds are high that the correction move near the 20-day EMA would offer a buying opportunity to investors. On the upside, the pair could regain strength if it manages to break above the June 24 high at 1.4248; above that, the pair could extend its advance towards 1.4300.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 57K
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 172K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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