Forex News
United States (US) Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed that he would never put a time frime to the Iran operation, saying he is worried that Iran has long-range strike capabilities that can hit the tactical operations center, causing US casualties at a Pentagon press conference on Monday.
Key takeaways
Iran has long-range strike capabilities.
Would never hang a time frame on Iran operation.
It won't happen overnight, this is a big battle space.
it will take time to conduct battle damage assessment.
Iranian weapons hit tactical operations center, causing US casualties.
No US boots on ground in Iran.
United States not ruling out any options in war in Iran, adding we fight to win.
Trump has latitude to say what time frame of Iran operation could be.
US will stand shoulder to shoulder with allies."
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.95% | 0.67% | 0.85% | 0.27% | 0.77% | 1.01% | 1.16% | |
| EUR | -0.95% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.67% | -0.18% | 0.06% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.67% | 0.28% | 0.13% | -0.39% | 0.11% | 0.34% | 0.49% | |
| JPY | -0.85% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.54% | -0.04% | 0.19% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.67% | 0.39% | 0.54% | 0.51% | 0.73% | 0.89% | |
| AUD | -0.77% | 0.18% | -0.11% | 0.04% | -0.51% | 0.24% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | -1.01% | -0.06% | -0.34% | -0.19% | -0.73% | -0.24% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -1.16% | -0.21% | -0.49% | -0.35% | -0.89% | -0.39% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold is drawing a safe‑haven bid as weekend strikes raise geopolitical risk premia. They see risks skewed to the upside, with resistance at 5,440 and 5,500 and support at 5,149 and 5,013. The sustainability of any rally hinges on whether conflict broadens and disrupts Oil, impacting global growth and inflation.
Upside risks as haven demand builds
"Escalation in Middle East reinforced demand for hedges against geopolitical tail risk, especially at a time when markets are already sensitive to global policy uncertainty."
"The magnitude and sustainability of any rally in gold will depend on whether this is a prolonged and wider conflict, that undermines oil supply routes, and result in wider implication on global growth and inflation or that the tense situation can calm swiftly."
"Gold was last seen at 5378 levels. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose."
"Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 5440, 5500 levels. Support at 5149, 5013 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ABN AMRO economists assess how higher Brent Oil prices could affect eurozone inflation and the ECB. In a mild USD 80 scenario, they see inflation returning to around 2%, while a USD 130 shock lifts 2026 inflation by 1.3pp but leaves 2027 only slightly higher, making second-round effects and the duration of the shock key for rate decisions.
Brent scenarios and eurozone inflation
"Turning to the eurozone, in the mildest scenario (Brent $80), inflation goes from being well below the ECB’s 2% target to moving broadly back to target and staying there. Even in the most severe (Brent $130) scenario, while eurozone inflation is boosted by 1.3pp in 2026, the lasting impact is relatively mild, with 2027 inflation only 0.2pp higher."
"In its last set of projections in December, the ECB also published alternative scenarios for growth and inflation based on a higher energy price scenario than it assumed. Under this scenario, inflation would be 0.5% higher in 2026 and 2027 and 0.3% above its baseline in 2028, whereas economic growth would be only 0.1% lower in each year. This would leave inflation above its target compared to close to target and therefore would raise the prospect of early ECB rate hikes."
"However, this is a scenario that assumes that high oil prices will sustain in the coming years. The scenario we are heading towards is more likely to be one where oil prices jump more than the ECB’s scenario in the near term (indeed they already have), but then come down more sharply later in the year. This would then imply upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts, but more modest changes to 2027-2028. The ECB’s view on the duration of the shock and potential second round effects, on for instance wages, would drive how minded it is to hike interest rates."
"We judge however that even in the most severe scenario, significant second round effects (as during the energy crisis) are unlikely, as the impact of such a rise in oil prices is much less than what we saw with the surge in gas prices back in 2022 (which pushed inflation into double digits)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY rebounds after a bearish gap-down open as Middle East tensions trigger market volatility.
- Technical outlook improves after breakout from the 207.25-209.50 consolidation range.
- RSI and MACD suggest improving momentum after recent consolidation.
GBP/JPY rebounds sharply on Monday after a bearish gap-down open, as heightened volatility sweeps across the FX market following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 210.80, recovering all of its early losses after falling to a daily low near 209.10.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fails to sustain its early gains as investors favor the US Dollar (USD) during periods of global stress, while uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening path keeps the Yen under pressure against the British Pound (GBP).
From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY’s outlook turns constructive after last week’s breakout from a two-week consolidation range between 207.25 and 209.50.
Monday’s price action has rebounded from the upper boundary of that former range, which closely aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 210.21, measured from the 207.25 swing low to the 215.00 high.
Immediate support is seen at 210.21 (23.6% Fibonacci), followed by 209.08 (38.2% retracement). A sustained move below this level could expose the range base near 207.25.
On the upside, resistance emerges at 211.13 (50% retracement), with stronger barriers at 212.04 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 213.34 (78.6% retracement). A break above these levels could reopen the path toward the 215.00 swing high.
Momentum indicators suggest improving bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above the 50 mark, currently near 50.8, signaling a recovery in buying momentum after a mid-range consolidation.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the signal line and moved into positive territory, with a gradually expanding histogram indicating strengthening upside momentum.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen says the Swiss Franc has become the ultimate currency safe haven, even ahead of the Dollar and Japanese Yen. Despite Switzerland not being a reserve currency issuer or net energy exporter, repeated appreciation in risk-off episodes and limited Swiss National Bank tools to weaken CHF support further strength if Middle East tensions escalate.
Franc seen outperforming in risk-off phases
"The ultimate safe haven among currencies at present, however, is not the US dollar but - as already observed last year - the Swiss franc."
"The franc is not the world’s reserve currency, and Switzerland is not a net energy exporter. In this case, a fourth factor comes into play:"
"Safe-haven status is a self‑reinforcing characteristic. In other words, the more frequently it can be observed that a currency appreciates in times of uncertainty, the stronger this effect becomes."
"The fact that the franc is currently benefiting in particular is due to the erosion over the past year of the status of other traditional safe havens - most notably the dollar, because of erratic policy from the White House, and the Japanese yen, due to growing fiscal concerns."
"Another point argues in favor of the franc: the Swiss National Bank now has only limited means to weaken it."
"In the event of an escalation of the crisis in the Middle East, further strength in the franc would therefore be expected."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Chris Turner argues Dollar strength after the Iran attack is justified and likely to persist. He highlights US energy independence versus Europe and Asia, and the risk that higher Oil and natural gas prices damage fossil-fuel importers. Turner also notes Fed easing expectations may be curtailed, with DXY already breaking resistance and potentially retesting 100 this month.
Energy channels and Fed expectations back Dollar
"Yet developments this weekend seem clearly dollar positive and we identify three channels at work here. The first is US energy independence and the energy dependence of Europe and Asia. It seems too early to expect de-escalation in the Middle East and the longer oil and natural gas prices stay higher, the bigger toll it takes on the external accounts of the fossil fuel importing currencies."
"This sustained rise in energy prices wrecked the terms of trade for the likes of the euro and yen and ushered in a sustained period of dollar strength. Until investors have a stronger idea of when this conflict ends, we would expect the dollar to stay supported. Europe's TTF natural gas has just opened 25% higher after the 10/12% higher opening for Brent crude last night."
"Notably, Fed Fund futures contract sold off 3-4 ticks in Asia on the view that the Fed might not be able to cut rates twice this year. This oil shock comes at a time when the January FOMC made it clear that the central bank was losing patience with inflation. Inflation really needed to show signs of falling, the Fed said, otherwise stabilisation in the US jobs market would question whether the Fed needs to cut rates at all."
"The virtuous circle of inflows, stronger EM currencies, local monetary easing cycles and bond and equity rallies could all reverse if energy prices stay elevated for a sustained period. A reversal of those flows would be dollar supportive too."
"DXY has already traded through resistance at 98.00. And unless there is some very early de-escalation in the Middle East, we cannot rule out DXY heading back up to 100 this month. Certainly the benign conditions which had favoured a mild dollar decline this year have currently been put on ice."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights how Middle East tensions and a Saudi refinery hit have driven Oil prices 7–10% higher, with European gas also surging. He notes that Saudi ports still load tankers and OPEC+ plans output increases. Savage outlines scenarios where WTI could normalize back to $65–$70 or rise toward $85 depending on conflict duration.
WTI scenarios hinge on conflict length
"Oil prices have risen by 7-10%, gold is up 2-3% and USD is 0.6% higher, while bonds have been bought and then sold."
"While the Saudi refinery hit changes the calculus, Saudi ports are still loading tankers and OPEC+ is resuming production increases from April to offset the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz."
"The key for energy prices is the duration of the conflict and the speed with which insurance and shipping can resume."
"If the conflict lasts a week, the price action in crude can normalize back to $65-$70/barrel WTI, but if it lasts a month the risk of a 15-20% rise to $85/barrel WTI increases."
"Inventories and the speed of a switch to new production outside the Gulf will become key factors"
"The moves in natural gas in the EU are far more dramatic and merit more attention from an economic shock standpoint."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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