Forex News
ING’s Chris Turner highlights that Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against aggressive tightening expectations, warning markets are overpricing rate hikes that hurt confidence. Turner expects limited second-round inflation effects given a growing output gap and weak pricing power, and sees scope for EUR/GBP to rise if survey data support a softer Bank of England path.
BoE pushback may lift EUR/GBP
"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appeared to deliver a rate protest in an exclusive interview with Reuters yesterday. He emphasised that markets were ‘getting ahead of themselves’ in pricing a series of rate hikes this year. The surge in short-dated UK rates during this Middle East crisis, fuelled by what was perceived as a very hawkish MPC meeting on 19th March, has clearly damaged both business and consumer confidence. A key takeaway from yesterday’s interview was that the BoE should fulfil its remit in a way that causes the least damage to the economy and the people. We saw a more than 100bp rise in two-year swap rates last month, and the BoE’s role in that spike is clearly an issue."
"Whether Governor Bailey is successful in putting the hawkish genie back in the bottle will depend on the data. Today sees the release of the important BoE Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey – a survey of 2,000-2,500 CFOs. Of key interest will be what CFOs are thinking about pricing power. Input costs will have gone up, of course. But will CFOs feel that selling prices and wage costs will rise too?"
"We are in Andrew Bailey’s camp with the view that a growing output gap and weak pricing power mean that there are limited chances of second-round effects from this energy supply shock. Were the DMP to confirm this, with, say, expected selling prices remaining near 3.0% year-on-year and wage costs at 3.5/4.0% YoY, we suspect the market can further rein in the near 50bp of expected BoE tightening this year. If so, EUR/GBP could make its way back to the 0.8790/8800 area – where it was trading at the end of February."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD slumps to near 1.1530 as fading Mideast ceasefire hopes revive risk-off mood.
- US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March outperform estimates.
- Higher oil prices have weighed heavily on the Euro.
The EUR/USD pair is down 0.5% to near 1.1530 in the European session on Thursday, resuming its decline after a two-day recovery move. The major currency pair faces intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens due to fears that the Middle East war is far from over.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.5% higher to near 100.00.
Earlier in the day, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that Washington will intensify military attacks against Iran in the next two to three weeks, and will target every Iranian electric generating plant if the nation doesn’t approve a deal.
US President Trump’s fresh threats have prompted risks that the Middle East war will last long, which has underpinned risk-off impulse again. On Wednesday, market sentiment turned risk-on after both the US and Iran signaled willingness to end the war.
Apart from the risk-off mood, the upbeat US ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March have offered strength to the US Dollar. On Wednesday, the ADP reported that the private sector created 62K fresh jobs in March, significantly higher than the 40K estimate, but slightly lower than 66K in the previous month. The Manufacturing PMI arrived higher at 52.7 against estimates of 52.5 and the prior release of 52.4.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has come under pressure due to accelerating oil prices amid renewed fears that the Middle East war will last long. Higher oil prices are unfavorable for the Euro, given that the European Union (EU) relies heavily on oil imports to meet its energy needs.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 01, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 62K
Consensus: 40K
Previous: 63K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- GBP/JPY attracts fresh sellers as fading Iran de-escalation hopes benefit the JPY’s safe-haven status.
- Economic concerns stemming from rallying Oil prices undermine the GBP and weigh on spot prices.
- The BoJ rate hike uncertainty might cap further JPY appreciation and help limit losses for the cross.
The GBP/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's goodish recovery from the 209.70-209.65 area, or the vicinity of a nearly four-week low. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips from the daily low and trade below the 211.00 mark during the early European session, still down over 0.20% for the day.
The British Pound's (GBP) underperformance against its Japanese counterpart could be attributed to growing concerns about the fallout from energy price shocks linked to the Iran war. Adding to this, the Bank of England's (BoE) signal about a potential rate hike as early as April raises downside risks to the economy. Furthermore, a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade benefits the Japanese Yen's (JPY) safe-haven status and exerts downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross.
Hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East faded following US President Donald Trump's comments earlier today. Addressing the nation, US President Donald Trump threatened that Iran would be hit extremely hard over the next two to three weeks if no deal is reached. Furthermore, reports claiming that the UAE wants to join the war to open the Strait of Hormuz raise the risk of a broader regional conflict and temper investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets.
Meanwhile, the latest development triggers a sharp intraday rally in Crude Oil prices, fueling inflation fears. Investors also seem concerned that the war-driven surge in energy prices could weaken Japan's economic growth and rekindle inflation, creating a classic stagflationary environment and complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) normalization efforts. This might cap the JPY and support the GBP/JPY cross. However, JPY intervention fears might continue to cap the upside.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.41% | 0.27% | 0.74% | 0.71% | 0.58% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.18% | -0.09% | -0.24% | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.66% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.39% | 0.09% | 0.08% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | 0.09% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.24% | 0.39% | 0.15% | 0.47% | 0.43% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | -0.74% | -0.27% | -0.09% | -0.32% | -0.47% | -0.03% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.24% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.43% | 0.03% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.58% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.15% | -0.30% | 0.20% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- Silver price tumbles to near $70.60 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Surging oil prices and a firm rate outlook weigh on the precious metals.
- The white metal turns negative in the near term, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at $73.80; the initial support level to watch is $68.00.
Silver price (XAG/USD) slumps to around $70.60 during the early European session on Thursday. The white metal faces some selling pressure after comments from US President Donald Trump on the Iran conflict.
Trump said during a primetime televised speech from the White House on Thursday that his core "objectives are nearing completion" in Iran. Nonetheless, he added that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” for the next two to three weeks.
These remarks have pushed crude oil prices higher and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of XAG/USD turns bearish as price extends its decline beneath the 100-day exponential moving average near $73.80, confirming a loss of the medium-term uptrend structure. RSI at 40.97 holds below the 50 midpoint and continues to track lower, indicating sellers retain momentum after the breakdown from overbought territory in the mid-80s area.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA around $73.80, with the Bollinger middle band near $76.25 reinforcing a wider supply zone that would cap any corrective bounce. A sustained move above that area would be needed to ease the current downside bias and reopen the $80.00 region. On the downside, initial support is located near the recent swing area around $68.00, followed by the psychological $65.00 handle. A decisive break below $65.00 would expose the lower Bollinger Band region around $63.20, where oversold conditions could slow, but not necessarily end, the prevailing bearish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton notes that Australia entered the conflict period with solid momentum, as the February trade surplus beat expectations and Q1 job vacancies rose. However, Prime Minister Albanese’s televised warning on fuel conservation and speculation about possible fuel rationing next week highlight domestic energy vulnerabilities that could weigh on the Australian Dollar despite supportive macro data.
Strong data meets fuel rationing fears
"The Aussie trade balance for February was better than expected with exports up 4.9% and imports down 3.2%."
"Job vacancies also surged by 2.7% in Q1, highlighting the growth momentum that Australia was carrying into the war."
"Given that Prime Ministerial addresses to the nation are incredibly rare, Australians were perhaps bracing for some grave Menzian announcement (“My fellow Australians. It is my melancholy duty to inform you...”) but were instead wished a happy Easter holiday period, warned that the months ahead may be hard and told to conserve fuel by taking public transport and resisting the urge to stockpile."
"Some commentators have cheekily observed that this one could have been an email, but in the aftermath of Trump’s address Albanese’s well wishes for the Easter holidays are feeling a bit more like the last supper as speculation mounts that Australia could be headed for fuel rationing as early as next week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY bounces back to near 159.50 after a two-day correction.
- Trump’s threats of extreme hits on Iran have revived risks that the Middle East war will last long.
- Upbeat US private employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI data have also strengthened the US Dollar.
The USD/JPY pair is up 0.4% to near 159.50 in the early European trade on Thursday. The pair recovers strongly after a two-day corrective move as the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD) has revived, following threats that the United States (US) will hit Iran extremely hard in the coming weeks.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.5% to near 100.00.
US President Donald Trump said in a planned speech earlier in the day, “We are going to hit them extremely hard over next two to three weeks, and bring them back to the stone ages.” Trump also threatened to attack Iran’s electricity infrastructure if it doesn’t accept a deal.
In addition to Middle East conflicts, upbeat US ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March have also offered support to the US Dollar.
Though investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (JPY), the latter trades higher against its other peers, as its safe-haven demand has also improved amid fears that the Iran conflict will last long.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY gains sharply to near 159.33 during the day. The near-term bias stays bullish as price holds well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 158.70 and continues to respect the ascending parallel channel in place since mid-March.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 keeps momentum on the positive side, indicating that dips within the channel remain supported rather than signaling a completed top.
Immediate support emerges around 159.00, ahead of the channel floor clustered near 158.20. A break below this area would expose the next support around 157.40, where the prior consolidation base aligns with the channel projection. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 159.80, followed by the channel cap around 160.70. A daily close above 160.70 would confirm a fresh upside extension toward the 161.50 region, while failure below 159.80 keeps USD/JPY confined to a consolidation phase inside the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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