Forex News
- EUR/GBP trades in a tight range above 0.8700 as traders stay cautious amid uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire.
- Technically, EUR/GBP remains confined within a falling wedge pattern, with a key moving average cluster providing near-term support.
- Momentum indicators suggest a mild bullish bias, with upside pressure gradually building.
EUR/GBP trades in a tight range on Thursday, with subdued price action as traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid uncertainty over whether the US-Iran ceasefire will hold. At the time of writing, the cross is consolidating just above the 0.8700 mark after slipping to a one-week low near 0.8686 the previous day.
From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP continues to trade within a falling wedge pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals fading downside pressure.
The pair is currently testing the upper boundary of the wedge while stabilizing above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered between 0.8685 and 0.8710. This zone is acting as a strong technical base and a near-term pivot area.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 leans positive without being overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that upside momentum is still intact but not aggressive.
On the upside, a sustained break above the wedge resistance would confirm the bullish setup and could open the door toward 0.8750, followed by the 0.8800 region.
On the downside, a move below the moving average cluster would weaken the near-term structure and expose the 0.8650 level as the next support, ahead of the lower boundary of the wedge near 0.8610. A firm break below this support zone would negate the bullish setup and shift the bias back to the downside.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.17% | 0.27% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.25% | -0.03% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.20% | -0.09% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.27% | -0.48% | -0.43% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.54% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.12% | -0.07% | 0.38% | 0.16% | -0.15% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.25% | -0.20% | 0.24% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.54% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.39% | 0.00% | 0.15% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar has stabilised after a modest rebound as markets reassess the fragile Middle East ceasefire and its impact on risk sentiment. He highlights that US monetary policy is unlikely to be a primary driver of Dollar strength, arguing that poor underlying fundamentals will cap gains unless risk aversion intensifies.
Dollar steadies as ceasefire doubts linger
"The US dollar is broadly stable so far in today’s trading after strengthening modestly into the close of trading yesterday as doubts quickly emerge and the questions we posed here yesterday remain unanswered."
"From the lows yesterday, the 2-year UST bond yield has drifted higher by about 6-7bps as doubts over the ceasefire intensify."
"Whatever way the conflict unfolds over the coming days and weeks, we doubt relative monetary policy dynamics will be a driver of US dollar strength."
"The US dollar’s best prospect of appreciation remains a more pronounced period of risk aversion that sees a flight to the dollar."
"But the general more modest gains for the dollar through this conflict to date we believe is indicative of poor underlying fundamentals for the dollar that will reassert themselves again if we do see further de-escalation in the coming weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- US GDP growth was revised lower to 0.5% for Q4.
- US Dollar Index holds steady near 99.00.
The United States' (US) real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) third estimate showed on Thursday. This print followed the 0.7% growth announced in the previous estimate and came in below the market's expectation of 0.7%.
"Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment," the BEA explained in its press release.
"The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased," the BEA further noted.
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen fluctuating near Wednesday's closing level of 99.00.
ING’s Francesco Pesole sees limited further downside in EUR/GBP after the cross fell to 0.870 on Sterling’s (GBP) sensitivity to the equity rally. With European Central Bank expectations likely to stay sticky while Bank of England (BoE) pricing can be repriced more dovishly if energy prices fall, Pesole expects BoE communication to support a move back towards 0.880 in EUR/GBP this quarter.
BoE repricing may lift EUR/GBP
"We struggle to see much downside potential in EUR/GBP following the drop to 0.870, which largely reflected sterling’s higher sensitivity to the sharp equity rally."
"... EUR rate expectations may prove sticky, while Bank of England dovish repricing could come through more smoothly if energy prices keep declining. After all, the BoE was already ready to cut before the war began, and we have a conviction view that second‑round effect risks in the UK are significantly lower than in 2022."
"Some BoE speakers (Governor Andrew Bailey, as well as Catherine Mann and Megan Greene) next week could offer markets an opportunity to trim pricing below one hike this year (currently 30bp), providing some bullish fuel for EUR/GBP. We still expect the pair to return to 0.880 this quarter."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- US PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% in February.
- The US Dollar Index remains in a daily range at around 99.00.
Inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, held steady at 2.8% in February, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. This print came in line with the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index was up 0.4%, as anticipated.
The core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, edged lower to 3% YoY from 3.1% in January.
Other details of the report showed that Personal Income declined by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while Personal Spending increased 0.5%.
Market reaction
These figures failed to trigger a significant market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 98.96.
- Initial Jobless Claims increased to 219K in the week ending April 4, above forecasts.
- Continuing Jobless Claims went down to 1.794M.
According to a report from the US Department of Labor (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 219K for the week ending April 4. The latest print came in above initial estimates of 210K and was higher than the previous week’s 203K (revised from 202K).
Additionally, the 4-week moving average went up by 1.5K, bringing it to 209.5K from the revised average of the previous week (208K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims fell by 38K to 1.794M for the week ending March 28.
Market reaction
The Greenback retreats marginally amid steady uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) navigating the area just below the key 100.00 threshold.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
