Forex News
Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth to have accelerated to 4.8% year-on-year, supported by robust exports and recovering investment. They see resilient industrial production and positive fixed asset investment, while property investment likely declined. CPI inflation is projected to ease, PPI to turn positive, and credit growth to slow on weak household loan demand.
Q1 growth supported by exports and investment
"Activity likely accelerated in Q1 from Q4-2025 levels partly on higher global demand for AI-related products, boosting production and exports."
"We estimate Q1 growth at 4.8% y/y, well within the official 2026 target range of 4.5-5.0%."
"Trade growth likely normalised in March but stayed robust, partly on solid IC demand."
"We think the trade surplus widened, contributing positively to Q1 growth."
"Resilient exports and the investment rebound likely supported industrial production (IP)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Asian currencies recovered as risk sentiment improved following comments from US President Trump on ending the Iran war, even as Oil prices stayed elevated. He remains skeptical that a durable peace deal is near and advises caution in positioning, highlighting China’s diplomatic role and the broader geopolitical risks for Asia FX and the Dollar.
Risk rally meets geopolitical skepticism
"Markets rallied and turned risk on, as US President Trump said that he foresaw the US ending the war on Iran within 2-3 weeks, while the WSJ also reported that the US administration is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Pezeshkian stated that Iran is prepared to end the war if Iran receive guarantees."
"The risk on sentiment and consequently Dollar weakness and recovery in Asian currencies were happening even as oil prices remained elevated with strikes and damages on Russia’s Ust-Luga Port potentially endangering 45% of Russia’s export capacity even if temporarily, and US-Israel strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Hormuz Strait. "
"We remain quite skeptical for now that a pathway to a durable peace deal can be reached for a few reasons, even as both sides have openly stated that they want to end the war. First, the comments from Iran’s President Pezeshkian is not entirely new, and the more important point is how to end the war and on whose terms – Iran, the US or others."
"Second, the overall power structure in Iran suggests that it’s not President Pezeshkian who is in charge but rather a more hardline regime in the Iran Revolutionary Guards, and certainly the key message from the war is that the Strait of Hormuz is an important leverage for Iran and they will as such want to extract their pound of flesh from any agreement."
"Third, even if the US were to unilaterally leave the Middle East as suggested by news reports, but to our minds this seems like an extremely unstable equilibrium with various actors including the Gulf States and Israel unlikely to take the status quo as it stands, while there is also the longer-term question around Iran’s nuclear weapon capabilities and capacities."
"We as such would remain cautious in positioning and markets for now, but nonetheless we think that China’s potential involvement even if indirectly through diplomatic channels for now is important and a key for how things could evolve."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research’s Radhika Rao highlights India’s fiscal response to elevated global energy prices and Rupee weakness. The government has cut central excise duty on petrol and diesel to support state-owned oil marketing companies and delay pump price hikes, but this implies significant revenue loss. Persistently high energy costs and subsidies pose upside risks to the fiscal deficit in FY27.
Fuel tax cuts support consumers but cost revenue
"Late last week, the government reduced the central excise duty on petrol and diesel by INR 10/litre to support state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs), which were absorbing losses from elevated global energy prices."
"This move lowered the need for an imminent increase in the retail pump prices to defend consumers but will entail a fiscal cost worth ~INR1.7trn (0.4-0.5% of GDP) in foregone revenues if this lasts the full year."
"Despite this move, elevated global prices and a weakening rupee suggest that the strain on fiscal books will persist, signaling that a further reduction in duties or a fuel price increase is likely to be the next step."
"Back in 2022, in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, a combination of duty cuts and pump price adjustments was undertaken to share the burden, with some degree of demand destruction also occurring as a result."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY is on the defensive as the US Dollar weakens amid improved risk sentiment.
- US Dollar Index slips to a one-week low near 99.30 after hitting ten-month highs earlier this week.
- Technical bias turns mildly bearish, with price holding just below the 21-day SMA while momentum indicators soften.
USD/JPY trades in a narrow range on Wednesday, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on a softer US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 158.50 after retreating from the 160.00 handle touched earlier this week.
The Greenback weakens across the board as risk sentiment improves on growing hopes that the US-Iran conflict could end soon, following comments from US President Donald Trump that military operations may conclude within two to three weeks.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 99.34, close to a one-week low after touching ten-month highs of 100.64 on Tuesday.
Market focus is now shifting to Trump’s scheduled address to the nation at 01:00 GMT on Thursday, where he is expected to provide “an important update on Iran.”
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is mildly bearish after failing to sustain gains above the 160.00 psychological level, a zone that has previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities.
The daily chart shows price hovering just below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 158.80, suggesting a short-term loss of momentum within a broader uptrend.
Momentum has eased from late-March peaks but remains broadly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the neutral 50 mark. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below its signal but remains near the zero line, hinting at consolidation rather than a full-fledged reversal.
On the upside, the 21-day SMA acts as immediate resistance, and a close above this level could open the door for a retest of the 160.00 psychological mark.
On the downside, a strong close below the 21-day SMA would strengthen bearish pressure, bringing the 50-day SMA near 156.96 into focus as the next support level.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- President Trump said Iran's president requested a ceasefire, sparking a broad unwind of the Dollar's safe-haven premium.
- ADP, February retail sales, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI all topped consensus, but the data failed to stem selling.
- Friday's NFP report and Trump's national address Wednesday evening could reset the near-term tone.
- DXY fell more than 0.5% on Wednesday, pressing session lows near 99.30 as ceasefire talk triggered a risk-on rotation out of the US Dollar.
DXY fell more than 0.5% on Wednesday, drifting into session lows around 99.30 after opening close to 99.90. The index has been under steady selling pressure all session, carving a series of lower highs on the intraday chart as the ceasefire narrative gained traction. Wednesday's slide extends Tuesday's break through the 100.00 handle and has now unwound a significant portion of March's 2.3% safe-haven rally from the January lows near 95.55.
The session's tone was set early after President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's president had requested a ceasefire, adding that the US would only consider the offer once the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear." This follows Trump's late-Tuesday remarks that he expects US military forces to leave Iran within two to three weeks. Iran's foreign minister pushed back against what he described as threats and deadlines, but the market read the exchange as an incremental step toward de-escalation, triggering a broad rotation out of safe-haven assets. With Trump set to deliver a national address later Wednesday evening, traders remain on edge; without a definitive all-clear, near-term volatility is expected to persist.
On the data front, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment change for March printed 62K against a 40K consensus, February retail sales rose 0.6% MoM versus 0.5% expected, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged to 52.7 for a third consecutive month of expansion.
The ISM Prices Paid subindex jumped to 78.3 from 70.5, well above the 73 consensus, pointing to intensifying input cost pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate path. Despite the broadly supportive data, the ceasefire narrative overwhelmed fundamentals; Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with a 60K consensus against a prior negative 92K print, looms as the week's marquee release.
DXY 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 5-minute chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.34. Price remains capped well below the 200-period EMA near 99.60, keeping the near-term bias mildly bearish despite the latest stabilization. The sequence of lower closes from the session open and the inability to challenge the descending average highlight persistent downside pressure. Stochastic RSI has rolled over from overbought territory and is now easing toward mid-range, indicating fading upside momentum rather than outright exhaustion, which aligns with a corrective drift lower rather than a decisive trend reversal.
Initial resistance emerges at 99.45, where recent intrabar highs clustered ahead of the firmer cap at the 99.60 area marked by the 200-period EMA. A break above 99.60 would be needed to neutralize the current downside bias and open the way toward 99.75. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 99.30, guarding the path toward a deeper slide toward 99.20 if selling pressure extends. As long as price trades below 99.45–99.60, rallies are likely to face supply, keeping the intraday risk skewed to the downside.
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.34. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 50-day exponential moving average near 98.90 and remains anchored over the 200-day average around 99.10, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pullback from the 100.50 area. Stochastic RSI has eased from overbought extremes but stays above oversold territory, indicating fading upside momentum rather than a confirmed reversal, which favors consolidation or a shallow correction within an ongoing bullish structure.
Initial support emerges at the 99.00–98.90 zone, where the 200-day and 50-day exponential moving averages converge, and a break below this area would expose the next downside level toward 98.50. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns near 99.90, ahead of the recent swing high at 100.50, and a daily close above this latter barrier would reopen the path toward the 101.00 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- The Dow gained over 400 points as growing optimism around a potential US-Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite across all three major indexes.
- Nike tumbled after issuing weak forward guidance, projecting sales declines for the rest of the calendar year including a sharp drop in China.
- Oil prices pulled back around 1% as President Trump signaled US forces could leave Iran within weeks, easing energy supply fears.
- Strong retail sales and private payrolls data reinforced the view that the US economy is absorbing the energy shock, though ISM prices paid surged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 400 points on Wednesday, or roughly 0.9%, as equities extended their rally into a second session on growing hopes that an end to the US-Iran conflict may be in sight. The S&P 500 rose about 1% while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a gain of roughly 1.6%, led by strength in mega-cap tech names.
Ceasefire talk drives broad-based rally
The session's bullish tone was set early after President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's president had requested a ceasefire. Trump added that the US would consider the offer only when the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear," while maintaining aggressive rhetoric toward Tehran. This follows Trump's remarks late Tuesday that he expects US military forces to leave Iran within two to three weeks. While Iran's foreign minister pushed back against what he described as threats and deadlines, the market read the situation as an incremental step toward de-escalation. However, with Trump set to deliver a national address later Wednesday evening, traders remain on edge. Without a definitive all-clear, volatility is expected to persist in the near term.
Oil retreats as war premium eases
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil futures shed around 1% to trade just above $100 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped by a similar margin to just above $102. The pullback came as ceasefire rhetoric took some of the geopolitical risk premium out of energy markets, though prices remain historically elevated given the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Oil has been a dominant macro driver throughout this conflict, and any material shift in war dynamics will continue to set the tone for equities and inflation expectations alike.
Nike sinks on grim outlook
Nike (NKE) was the session's most notable decliner, tumbling around 14% after the athletic wear giant issued a surprisingly downbeat outlook despite beating Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal third quarter. Revenue came in at $11.28 billion, slightly ahead of estimates, while EPS of $0.35 topped the $0.28 consensus. The damage came from guidance, where management warned that Q4 sales are expected to fall between 2% and 4%, well below analyst expectations for modest growth. Greater China revenue is projected to decline around 20% in the current quarter. Net income dropped 35% year over year and gross margins contracted as higher tariffs in North America continued to weigh on profitability.
Tech and AI sentiment get a boost
Big tech names posted modest gains across the board, with Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) all trading higher. Risk sentiment was supported not only by the ceasefire headlines but also by the formal closing of OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation. Amazon committed $50 billion to the round, while Nvidia and SoftBank each contributed $30 billion. The deal reinforced the market's conviction in the AI infrastructure buildout, providing a sentiment tailwind for chip and cloud names. Elsewhere, Intel (INTC) jumped around 10% after announcing the buyback of its Ireland chip fabrication facility, which investors took as a sign of renewed strategic focus.
Economic data paints a mixed picture
The day's data releases painted a broadly resilient consumer picture but flagged rising input cost pressures. ADP Employment Change for March came in at 62K, comfortably ahead of the 40K consensus, while February retail sales rose 0.6% month over month versus 0.5% expected. Retail sales excluding autos also beat at 0.5% versus 0.3% forecast, reinforcing the view that consumer spending is holding up despite the energy shock. On the manufacturing side, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March edged up to 52.7, just above the 52.5 consensus. However, ISM prices paid surged to 78.3 from 73, a significant beat that highlights the inflationary pass-through from elevated Oil prices. New orders fell to 53.5 from 55.8, suggesting some cooling in demand momentum.
St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Alberto Musalem struck a hawkish tone, arguing that the current policy rate appropriately balances the Fed's dual mandate and should remain steady for some time. He noted that the real policy rate has already declined given the energy-driven rise in inflation expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool continues to show around a 95% probability of a hold at the April 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with rate futures pricing a near coin-flip between zero and one cuts for the full year. Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, but the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will still be released at 12:30 GMT, with consensus at 60K versus the prior reading of -92K. Initial jobless claims on Thursday and Trump's scheduled national address on Wednesday evening are the next key catalysts.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
The US Dollar (USD) kept its bearish impulse well in place for the second day in a row on Wednesday, this time retreating from recent multi-month tops on the back of the marked improvement in the risk-associated universe and rising hopes of a potential end to the conflict in the Middle East sooner rather than later.
Here’s what to watch on Thursday, April 2:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to fresh five-day lows near 99.30 amid mixed US Treasury yields and the broad-based better tone in the risk complex. US President Donald Trump is expected to comment on developments in the Middle East early in the Asian trading hours, while the usual Initial Jobless Claims and advanced Balance of Trade results will be the salient events on the US docket.
EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s marked advance, surpassing the 1.1600 barrier and coming close to the area of three-week peaks. The Euro docket will be empty on Maundy Thursday.
GBP/USD jumped to three-day highs north of 1.3300, always on the back of the firm risk-on sentiment. The BoE will publish its Decision Market Panel (DMP) in a single release across the Channel.
A vacillating price action saw USD/JPY trade in a narrow range, briefly challenging the 159.00 hurdle just to retreat a tad afterward. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due seconded by the Monetary Base readings.
AUD/USD built on Tuesday’s advance and reclaimed the area well beyond the 0.6900 barrier, up around one cent from Tuesday’s troughs. The Balance of Trade results will take centre stage in Oz.
WTI prices retreated further, coming close to the $96.00 mark per barrel before heading back to the $100.00 region as traders continue to assess developments from the Middle East crisis.
Gold kept its march north unabated, this time approaching the $4,800 mark per troy ounce on the back of the weaker US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and steady uncertainty surrounding the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
- The Australian Dollar rises against the Greenback as market risk appetite strengthens.
- Hopes of a swift end to the US-Iran war support risk-sensitive assets.
- Mixed economic data from Australia and China limit the upside momentum.
AUD/USD advances on Wednesday and trades around 0.6940 at the time of writing, up 0.56% on the day. The pair rebounds, supported by improving risk sentiment that weighs on the US Dollar (USD).
The move is largely driven by comments from US President Donald Trump, who said on Tuesday that he plans to end the conflict in the Middle East within the next two to three weeks, even if a formal agreement with Tehran remains uncertain. He also stated that the Strait of Hormuz should reopen “automatically” once the attacks stop, which helped reassure markets.
These remarks supported risk assets globally. European equity markets closed with strong gains, while Wall Street indices are posting solid advances. In this environment, Oil prices and the US Dollar have declined, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) have attracted buying interest.
The weakness of the Greenback is also reflected in the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies and is trading near 99.40, close to a one-week low after reaching a ten-month high of 100.64 on Tuesday.
On the macroeconomic front, recent US data remain broadly solid but have failed to provide meaningful support to the US Dollar. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.7 in March, above expectations, while Retail Sales increased by 0.6% MoM in February, marking their strongest gain in seven months. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 62K jobs in March, beating forecasts but slightly below the previous revised reading.
Several officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed) also commented on the economic outlook. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that households and businesses still see the energy shock as temporary, but warned that rate hikes could become necessary if inflation expectations begin to rise. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that monetary policy is “well positioned” amid the current economic uncertainty, while highlighting potential inflation risks linked to the Middle East war.
In Australia, recent data have painted a more mixed picture. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Commodity Index surged 12.8% YoY in March, up from a revised 4.9% gain in the previous month and marking the strongest increase since January 2023. However, manufacturing activity in China, Australia’s key trading partner, slowed as the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 52.1 in February, below market expectations.
Despite these mixed signals, the Aussie continues to benefit from a more risk-friendly market environment, with investors closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their implications for safe-haven flows.
(This story was corrected on April 1 at 17:08 GMT to say that the DXY reached a ten-month high of 100.64 on Tuesday, not Monday.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.69% | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.56% | -0.37% | -0.75% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.21% | 0.46% | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.13% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.69% | 0.21% | 0.68% | 0.50% | 0.17% | 0.35% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.46% | -0.68% | -0.16% | -0.49% | -0.33% | -0.68% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.29% | -0.50% | 0.16% | -0.34% | -0.15% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.56% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.49% | 0.34% | 0.21% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.37% | -0.13% | -0.35% | 0.33% | 0.15% | -0.21% | -0.39% | |
| CHF | 0.75% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.68% | 0.53% | 0.18% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Sterling rallies as hopes of a quicker US exit from Iran improve market sentiment.
- Strong US data and rising prices keep inflation risks alive.
- Softer UK manufacturing activity limits upside despite broad Dollar weakness.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances over 0.70% on Wednesday as risk appetite improved amid speculation of an end to the Middle East conflict, following US President Donald Trump's statement, "We're going to be out of Iran pretty quickly." GBP/USD trades above 1.3300 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3216.
Sterling advances as risk-on mood dents US Dollar despite hot prices
On Tuesday, rumors surfaced that Trump was considering withdrawing from the conflict, even though the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut. Nevertheless, a Daily Mail columnist reported that sources at the White House said Trump is "considering taking Kharg Island."
Risk appetite improved following Trump's withdrawal statement, as global equities rallied while the US Dollar erased its earlier gains.
US economy faring better than expected
The US economy remains solid, yet inflationary pressures are building, according to data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March exceeded estimates, rising to 52.7 from 52.5, signaling strong economic activity at the expense of higher prices. The ISM's sub-component Prices Paid Index rose sharply to its highest level in almost four years at 78.3.
Earlier, Retail Sales rose 0.6% MoM in February, its largest jump in seven months, above economists' forecasts for a 0.5% increase, and up from January's -0.1% revised dip. Furthermore, the US ADP Employment Change in March revealed that private payrolls rose by 62K, slightly below February's 66K and better than the expected 40K.
Fed's Barkin and Musalem are concerned about inflation
Speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials failed to boost the Greenback, even though the data justify a further recovery in the US Dollar. Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin said that households and firms are still seeing the energy shock as a short-term issue. However, he warned that "The hike case would be around inflation expectations starting to move finally."
St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem said that policy is well-positioned amid current economic uncertainty, is appropriate, and does not see a need to move rates, while warning of potential inflation risks spurred by the Middle East conflict.
In the UK, business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a slower rate, as S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 51, missing a preliminary estimate of 51.4. Meanwhile, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said to Reuters that markets are getting ahead of themselves regarding rate hikes.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3332. The pair retains a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3500, which cap the upside and confirm loss of momentum from the late-1.3800 area. Price is now oscillating between an ascending support trend line from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, highlighting a broad consolidation with a downside tilt while successive closes remain under the downtrend cap.
Initial resistance is located near the confluence of the descending trend line and the grouped daily averages around 1.3500, with a break there exposing 1.3600 as the next notable barrier. On the downside, immediate support appears in the 1.3200 zone, ahead of the rising trend line that currently underpins the structure just above 1.3100. A clear daily close below that trend support would strengthen the bearish case and open the way toward 1.3000, while holding above it keeps the pair in a wide range despite the present downward bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on April 1 at 16:18 GMT to say that the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March exceeded estimates, rising to 52.7 from 52.4 not from 52.5 as previously stated.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.96% | -0.53% | -0.97% | -0.04% | -1.12% | -0.34% | -0.42% | |
| EUR | 0.96% | 0.45% | -0.04% | 0.93% | -0.16% | 0.63% | 0.55% | |
| GBP | 0.53% | -0.45% | -0.42% | 0.48% | -0.60% | 0.18% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.97% | 0.04% | 0.42% | 0.96% | -0.10% | 0.67% | 0.50% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.93% | -0.48% | -0.96% | -1.10% | -0.29% | -0.40% | |
| AUD | 1.12% | 0.16% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 1.10% | 0.79% | 0.67% | |
| NZD | 0.34% | -0.63% | -0.18% | -0.67% | 0.29% | -0.79% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.42% | -0.55% | -0.07% | -0.50% | 0.40% | -0.67% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CAD eases as the US Dollar Index falls to a one-week low.
- Improving sentiment around a potential US-Iran de-escalation weighs on the Greenback, though risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist.
- Strong US data fails to lift the USD, while Canada’s PMI signals stagnation, leaving the pair driven mainly by Dollar dynamics.
USD/CAD trades with a softer tone on Wednesday, as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) lends support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The pair is trading around 1.3891 at the time of writing, retreating after touching its highest level since December 2025 earlier this week.
The US Dollar is under pressure as recent comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting the US-Iran war could end within “two or three weeks” have improved risk appetite and reduced demand for the Greenback as a safe-haven asset.
However, the situation remains far from resolved, with tensions still centered around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iran’s leadership had requested a ceasefire, adding that Washington would consider it only if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.” He warned that until then, the US would continue military operations.
Meanwhile, Iran pushed back on the claim, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying that reports of Tehran requesting a ceasefire are false, according to Al Jazeera.
While hopes of de-escalation have pushed Oil prices lower from recent highs, they remain elevated compared to pre-conflict levels but have failed to provide meaningful support to the commodity-linked Loonie, leaving USD/CAD largely driven by US Dollar dynamics.
Meanwhile, stronger US economic data failed to provide support to the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 99.40, close to a one-week low after touching ten-month highs of 100.64 on Tuesday.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, beating expectations of 52.5 and improving slightly from the previous 52.4. The ADP Employment Change rose by 62K in March, beating expectations of 40K but easing from the previous reading of 66K (revised from 63K).
Retail Sales increased by 0.6% in February, surpassing forecasts of 0.5% and rebounding from a revised -0.1% decline in January (previously -0.2%).
In Canada, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50 in March, down from 51 in February, signaling a stagnation in manufacturing sector performance.
On the monetary policy front, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said US monetary policy is “well positioned,” adding that holding interest rates steady is likely appropriate for some time.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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