Forex News
- Silver remains firm, trading near all-time highs, at $62.89.
- A dovish Fed and renewed concerns about an AI bubble are underpinning support for precious metals.
- XAG/USD is showing a bearish divergence in the 4-hour RSI.
Silver (XAG/USD) sits comfortably above the $62.00 level on Thursday’s European trading session, with the all-time high of $62.89 at a short distance. A dovish message from the US Federal Reserve and cautious market sentiment amid renewed concerns about an AI bubble are keeping precious metals supported on Thursday.
The US Dollar remains on its back foot, as investors digest a more dovish-than-expected Fed monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but votes to hold rates were only two, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discarded any rate hike. This has kept investors' hopes of at least two more rate cuts in 2026 alive
Technical Analysis: Bulls aim for $62.85 and the 64.00 area
The pair looks overstretched after rallying more than 25% in the last three weeks, but so far without a sign of a trend change. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, is showing a bearish divergence, which should act as a warning for buyers.
Immediate resistance is at Wednesday’s high, near $62.90. Further up, the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the early December trading channel is at $63.85. An unlikely move above that level would bring the $65.00 psychological level into focus.
To the downside, the pair has found support on a previous resistance area at $61.50 (December 11 low). Below here, the next targets are the December 10 low at $60.00 and the December 5 high at $59.35.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- AUD/USD retraces to near 0.6630 from an almost three-month high of 0.6686.
- Unexpectedly weak Australian labour market data weighs heavily on the Aussie Dollar.
- The Fed cuts its interest rates for the third time in a row.
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.45% to near 0.6630 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair faces intense selling pressure, following the release of the unexpectedly weak Australian employment data.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.43% | 0.20% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.52% | 0.28% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.12% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.49% | 0.23% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.01% | -0.13% | 0.36% | 0.09% | -0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.43% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -0.49% | -0.36% | -0.24% | -0.73% | |
| NZD | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.09% | 0.24% | -0.49% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.73% | 0.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy shed 21.3K jobs in November, while it was expected to have added 20K fresh job-seekers. In October, Australian employers hired 41.1K new workers. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%, lower than estimates of 4.4%.
An unexpected reduction in the Australian laborforce has propelled concerns over the economy’s job market, prompting traders to reassess their hawkish expectations on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook.
On Tuesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in the press conference, following the monetary policy announcement, that “rate cuts are not on the horizon” as “risks to inflation have tilted to the upside”.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to regain ground following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its seven-week low of 98.55 posted the previous day.
On Wednesday, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%, and signaled one interest rate in 2026.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference that goods inflation is expected to peak in early 2026 if more tariffs are not announced.
Economic Indicator
Employment Change s.a.
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 11, 2025 00:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -21.3K
Consensus: 20K
Previous: 42.2K
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Chinese officials say in the Annual Central Economic Work Conference during the European trading hours on Thursday that the government is focused on maintaining the Chinese Yuan’s (CNY) exchange rate basically stable.
Additional remarks
We will maintain Yuan exchange rate basically stable.
Maintain a necessary fiscal deficit.
We will not relax efforts on grain production, keep food prices at reasonable levels.
China to improve local tax system.
China to improve AI governance.
FX Implications
There has been no discernible impact on the Chinese Yuan from the outcome of the China Central Economic Work Conference. However, the USD/CNY pair has posted a fresh yearly low near 7.0574 during European trading hours amid weakness in the US Dollar (USD).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.00 per troy ounce, up 0.35% from the $61.78 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have increased by 114.58% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 62.00 |
1 Gram | 1.99 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.96 on Thursday, down from 68.46 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Antoine Martin delivered optimistic remarks on the global economy after the monetary policy announcement in which the central bank held interest rates at 0%, as expected.
Additional remarks
Uncertainty decreased since the last SNB decision.
Global economy grew more strongly than expected in Q3.
Global economic development in many countries is more resilient than expected
Higher investments than expected, as investments in AI are high.
Insecurity has declined slightly, compared to the last assessment.
However, significant risks persist for the global economy, with US tariffs among them.
Expect global economy to grow moderately over next quarters.
FX Implications
SNB Martin’s comments are unlikely to impact the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they are more about the global economy. At the press time, USD/CHF trades 0.1% lower to near 0.7995.
Swiss economy FAQs
Switzerland is the ninth-largest economy measured by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the European continent. Measured by GDP per capita – a broad measure of average living standards –, the country ranks among the highest in the world, meaning that it is one the richest countries globally. Switzerland tends to be in the top spots in global rankings about living standards, development indexes, competitiveness or innovation.
Switzerland is an open, free-market economy mainly based on the services sector. The Swiss economy has a strong export sector, and the neighboring European Union (EU) is its main trading partner. Switzerland is a leading exporter of watches and clocks, and hosts leading firms in the food, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries. The country is considered to be an international tax haven, with significantly low corporate and income tax rates compared with its European neighbors.
As a high-income country, the growth rate of the Swiss economy has diminished over the last decades. Still, its political and economic stability, its high education levels, top-tier firms in several industries and its tax-haven status have made it a preferred destination for foreign investment. This has generally benefited the Swiss Franc (CHF), which has historically kept relatively strong against its main currency peers. Generally, a good performance of the Swiss economy – based on high growth, low unemployment and stable prices – tends to appreciate CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
Switzerland isn’t a commodity exporter, so in general commodity prices aren’t a key driver of the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, there is a slight correlation with both Gold and Oil prices. With Gold, CHF’s status as a safe-haven and the fact that the currency used to be backed by the precious metal means that both assets tend to move in the same direction. With Oil, a paper released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggests that the rise in Oil prices could negatively influence CHF valuation, as Switzerland is a net importer of fuel.
- USD/CHF tests a three-week low below 0.7985 after SNB's decision.
- The Swiss Central Bank left rates unchanged at 0% and hinted at a moderate economic growth in 2026.
- The US Dollar remains on the defensive after a dovish Fed statement on Wednesday.
The Swiss Franc is drawing support from the Swiss National Bank's (SNB), monetary policy decision. The USD/CHF has turned lower from levels near the 0.8000 line, and is testing fresh three-week lows at 0.7985 at the time of writing, after having depreciated nearly 1% in the last three days.
The SNB met investors' expectations and left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0% on Wednesday. Markets are now expecting the press release from the bank’s governor, Martin Schlegel, for further insight on the near-term monetary policy plans.
The bank’s statement highlights the lower-than-expected inflationary trends but affirms that the medium-term inflation remains virtually unchanged from the previous monetary policy meeting. The bank also notes that the Swiss economy contracted in Q3 but sees an improved economic outlook amid lower US tariffs and a somewhat stronger global growth, all in all, curbing hopes of negative interest rates.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains on the defensive following a more dovish than expected monetary policy decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and signalled only one further cut in 2026. Investors, however, remain confident that the bank will ease its monetary policy further next year, amid the soft hawkish dissent and Chairman Powell’s comments, downplaying concerns about inflation and ruling out rate hikes.
Economic Indicator
SNB Interest Rate Decision
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 11, 2025 08:30
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 0%
Consensus: 0%
Previous: 0%
Source: Swiss National Bank
Economic Indicator
SNB Press Conference
The Swiss National Bank (SNB), led by the Chairman of the Governing Board, holds a press conference after each of its quarterly meetings, held in March, June, September and December, when it takes decisions on interest rates and formulates economic forecasts for the future. The press conference has two parts – first a prepared statement is read out, then the conference is open to questions from the press. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create market volatility. Hawkish comments tend to boost the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a dovish message tends to weaken it.
Read more.Last release: Thu Dec 11, 2025 09:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: -
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Swiss National Bank
While responding to reporters in the press conference, after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates steady at 0%, Chairman Martin Schlegel offered more details on the outlook of the economy and inflation.
SNB Schlegel’s press conference highlights
We will continue to observe the situation and adjust monetary policy where necessary to keep price stability.
Low interest rate is effective through the exchange rate.
Midterm inflation pressure is practically unchanged since the previous quarter.
We remain ready to intervene in the currency market as necessary.
SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters.
Our monetary policy remains expansive.
Monetary policy also supports economic growth.
Uncertainty has declined slightly, compared to the last assessment.
Expect the global economy to grow moderately over the next quarters.
However, significant risks persist for the global economy, with US tariffs among them.
Monetary policy is appropriate.
Cannot comment on future decisions.
Important is the medium-term outlook for inflation, which is basically unchanged.
Unemployment expected to rise slightly, but could then fall again.
We have no preference for inflation as long as it is in the target range.
The bar for negative rates is higher, but remain ready to use them if necessary.
Willing to introduce SNB negative rates in needed.
Probability of using negative rates has not risen.
Can't say lower CPI outlook makes NIRP more likely.
Negative rates worked to reduce attractiveness of CHF.
We have reduced interest rates early and this reduction has proven to be positive.
Lower tariffs on Swiss GDP is a positive
Market reaction
USD/CHF gains ground after sliding to near 0.7985 as of writing.
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
- The Indian Rupee declines sharply against the US Dollar at open, with the USD/INR rising to near 90.80.
- US-India trade deal uncertainty has remained a major drag on the Indian Rupee.
- The Fed reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday and signaled only one in 2026.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faces intense selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) in afternoon trading hours in India on Thursday. The USD/INR pair posts a fresh all-time high around 90.80 as the Indian Rupee slumps amid uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the United States (US) and India.
Investors remain cautious about whether the US and India will reach a consensus after the two-day meeting, which started on Wednesday, following the arrival of Deputy US Trade Representative Rick Switzer.
On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called India a “tough nut to crack” while testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, but added that the latest offer by New Delhi is the "best ever" the US has seen, India Today reported.
Meanwhile, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has stated in a note that India must insist on balanced outcomes in the ongoing trade negotiations with the US and remain extremely cautious about extending concessions on agricultural crops or genetically modified (GMO) products, ANI reported. The agency added that Washington should first cut tariffs on Indian exports to 25% from 50% if it is serious about the deal.
Meanwhile, a report from Reuters showed that the "Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely selling US Dollars to help the Indian Rupee avert a sharp fall".
Trade frictions between the US and India have dampened the interest of overseas investors in the Indian equity market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days of December, and have offloaded stake worth Rs. 16,470.35 crore.
On the domestic front, investors await the retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will be released on Friday.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.69% | 0.55% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.64% | 0.49% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.56% | 0.41% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.62% | 0.47% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.53% | 0.39% | -0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | -0.64% | -0.56% | -0.62% | -0.53% | -0.15% | -0.75% | |
| INR | -0.55% | -0.49% | -0.41% | -0.47% | -0.39% | 0.15% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.75% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Fed's dot plot shows Federal Fund Rate falling to 3.4% by 2026
- The Indian Rupee trades sharply lower against the US Dollar even as the latter underperforms, following the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to regain ground after refreshing a seven-week low at open around 98.50.
- On Wednesday, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed was widely expected to do so as US labour market conditions have remained weak for almost a year.
- The Fed’s dot plot showed that policymakers see only one interest rate cut in 2026, and Chairman Jerome Powell expressed that the “bar for further monetary easing is very high and we [The Fed] are well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves”.
- While market participants had already priced in a 25-bps interest rate reduction, and Fed’s Powell has not explicitly endorsed further rate cuts, the major factor that led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar appears to be comments from Powell pointing to cooling inflation expectations.
- “Evidence is growing that services inflation has come down, and goods inflation is entirely due to tariffs,” Powell said and added, “If there are no new tariff announcements, inflation from goods should peak in Q1.” Before the policy announcement, investors had anticipated that the Fed would announce a pause on further interest rate cuts as inflationary pressures have remained well above the 2% target.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR revisits all-time high near 90.70
USD/INR trades 0.65% higher near 90.80 on Thursday. The pair holds above a rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 89.74, keeping the short-term trend pointed higher. The 20-day EMA has steepened in recent sessions, reinforcing trend support.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 69.09, turns up after a pullback, confirming bullish momentum.
Momentum would stay constructive while price action remains north of the rising 20-day EMA. A sustained close above that dynamic support would keep dips shallow and could extend the advance towards 92.00, whereas a break back below it would soften the bullish tone and open the downside towards the December 1 low at 89.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- Gold struggles to capitalize on an intraday uptick to a fresh weekly high on Thursday.
- A positive risk tone and a modest USD recovery exert some pressure on XAU/USD.
- Dovish Fed expectations should cap the USD and offer support to the XAU/USD pair.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from the vicinity of the $4,200 mark, though it sticks to its negative bias through the first half of the European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers and recovers a part of the previous day's post-FOMC slump to its lowest level since October 24. This, in turn, fails to assist the commodity in capitalizing on its modest intraday uptick to the weekly high.
The upside for the USD, however, seems limited amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war limit the downside for the safe-haven commodity, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold trader seem non-committed as dovish Fed bets counter modest USD recovery
- In a widely expected move, the US Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and projected just one more rate cut in 2026. Investors, however, remained hopeful about two more rate cuts in 2026 in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks.
- Powell told reporters during the post-meeting press conference that the US labor market has significant downside risks and the US central bank does not want its policy to push down on job creation. This, in turn, dragged the US Dollar to its lowest level since October 24 and pushed the Gold to a fresh weekly high on Thursday.
- Powell, however, declined to offer guidance on the timing of the next rate cut and signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. Moreover, two hawkish dissents were opposing even Wednesday's move, fueling uncertainty about the pace of Fed policy easing next year and acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Furthermore, a positive risk tone turns out to be another factor driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal. That said, slow progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks keep geopolitical risks in play and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the commodity and limit deeper losses.
- Ukrainian drones hit and disabled a tanker involved in trading Russian oil in the Black Sea. This marks the third sea drone strike in two weeks on vessels that are part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin had said that Russia would seize Ukraine’s Donbas region by military or other means.
- The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears. Market participants now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data. This, along with USD price dynamics, should provide a fresh trading impetus to the commodity.
Gold bears need to wait for break below $4,200 before placing fresh bets
The intraday pullback from the vicinity of a resistance marked by the top boundary of a two-week-old trading range warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bulls. However, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any further decline below the $4,200 mark could be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the $4,170-4,165 region. A convincing break below the latter, however, might expose the $4,125-4,120 confluence – comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trend line extending from the late October swing low.
On the flip side, bulls need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,245-4,250 supply zone. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the Gold price to the $4,277-4,278 intermediate hurdle en route to the $4,300 mark. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls and pave the way for additional near-term gains.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds interest rates steady at 0%, as expected. Now investors await Chairman Martin Schlegel's upcoming press conference at 09:00 GMT, where they will be looking for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
SNB's monetary statement highlights
Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold.
SNB remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessment.
SNB sees 2025 inflation at 0.2% (previous forecast was for 0.2%).
SNB sees 2026 inflation at 0.3% (previous forecast was for 0.5%).
SNB sees 2027 inflation at 0.6% (previous forecast was for 0.7%).
SNB sees 2025 Swiss GDP at around 1.5% (previous forecast was for 1.0-1.5%).
SNB sees 2026 Swiss GDP at around 1% (previous forecast was for around 1%).
Main risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland is the development of the global economy.
Economic outlook for Switzerland has improved slightly due to the lower us tariffs and somewhat better development globally.
Although US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on the global economy, economic development in many countries has thus far remained more resilient than had been assumed.
Baseline scenario anticipates that growth in the global economy will be moderate over the coming quarters.
US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty could yet weigh more heavily on global economic momentum than observed thus far.
Market reaction
The initial reaction to the SNB's policy on the Swiss Franc (CHF) seems positive. The USD/CHF falls to near 0.7990 as of writing.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.52% | 0.25% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.62% | 0.34% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.46% | 0.18% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.56% | 0.25% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.40% | 0.11% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | -0.52% | -0.62% | -0.46% | -0.56% | -0.40% | -0.28% | -0.67% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.34% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.11% | 0.28% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.22% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.67% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published as a preview of the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) monetary policy announcement at 06:35 GMT.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is scheduled to announce its last monetary policy of 2025 today at 08:30 GMT.
The SNB is expected to hold interest rates steady at 0% for the second meeting in a row. The Swiss central bank would continue maintaining an expansionary monetary policy stance as price pressures have remained close to the lower end of 0%-2% inflation target. In November, the Swiss inflation remains flat on an annualized basis, following a 0.1% growth in October.
As the SNB is widely anticipated to leave borrowing rates at 0%, the major trigger for the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) outlook will be the monetary policy guidance for 2026. The SNB is unlikely to support negative interest rates as Chairman Martin Schlegel stated in his comments in early November that the "bar to go back to NIRP (negative interest rate policy) is very high”, citing that the ultra-dovish stance could lead to "undesirable side effects" on savers and pension funds.
How could SNB’s monetary policy outcome affect USD/CHF?
USD/CHF strives to gain ground during Thursday’s European session after revisiting its three-week low of 0.7985 the previous day. The Swiss Franc pair demonstrates a broader sideways trend amid a Descending Triangle formation whose horizontal support is placed from the November 19 low of 0.7985, while the downward-sloping border is plotted from the November high of 0.8124. The near-term trend of the pair is bearish as it stays below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.8030
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.23, below the 50 midline, signals waning bullish momentum. A rebound in RSI toward 50 would signal stabilization.
The downward-sloping border limits gains, with resistance seen near 0.8078. However, a daily close above that barrier could ease pressure and tilt the bias toward recovery for an upside to near the August high of 0.8171, while failure to reclaim it would keep sellers in control. Looking down, bears could gain control if the pair breaks below the November 19 low of 0.7985, and extend the decline towards the November 18 low of 0.7938.
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
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