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ING’s Adam Antoniak expects Poland’s 2Q26 GDP flash estimate to be confirmed at 3.8% year-on-year, with fixed investment rebounding strongly thanks to EU and RRF-funded projects. Private consumption is seen slowing slightly as higher fuel prices and weaker wage growth weigh on purchasing power. August CPI is projected at 3.1% with core inflation stable at 3.1%.

Investment-led expansion offsets softer consumption

"We expect the flash estimate of Poland’s 2Q26 GDP to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY on 31 August. Statistics Poland will also publish a composition of economic growth. We estimate that private consumption growth eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.3% YoY in 1Q26 as higher fuel prices and further slowdown in wage growth put pressure on purchasing power."

"At the same time, fixed investment growth increased to 8.5% YoY from a disappointing 2.4% YoY in the previous quarter. Projects financed by the EU funds (including RRF) accelerated, and data on investment outlays of large companies in 1H26 point to strong investment activity in 2Q26."

"Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July. We estimate that core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1% YoY and the slightly higher contribution from fuel prices to annual CPI was probably almost fully cancelled out by the negative impact of food deflation that likely deepened."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

According to the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision, Nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1%), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday.

"The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1%)," the BLS noted in its official press release.

The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2027 with the publication of the January 2027 Employment Situation news release.

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) outperforms its major rivals in the American session on Friday despite the preliminary negative benchmark revision to Nonfarm employment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium seems to be the primary driver behind the renewed USD strength. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.35% on the day at 99.45.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight as conditions seen too loose

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a distinctly hawkish-leaning message, with a 7.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing above the 6.5/10 historical average and underscoring heightened concern about price stability. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target “or we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are hard to call restrictive and that recent disinflation has not changed underlying trends, points to a bias toward further or prolonged restraint even as growth, spending, and investment remain solid.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, holding at 129.70, signaling that the speech keeps the overall Fed stance firmly in hawkish territory despite no incremental shift in the aggregate gauge. The elevated index level, together with the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score, suggests markets will continue to price a Fed that is more focused on cementing the 2% PCE objective than on easing policy in the near term.

This section below was published as a preview of the preliminary benchmark revisions to Nonfarm Payrolls data at 09:33 GMT.

US investors will watch on Friday a labor market report that is far less familiar than the monthly jobs release but has gained considerable importance following the spectacular revisions of recent years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision to the payroll employment series for the twelve months ending March at 14:00 GMT.

Behind its particularly technical name, the Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revision answers a relatively simple question: Has the number of payroll jobs reported month after month by US statisticians accurately reflected the reality of the labor market?

The answer could have implications well beyond the statistics themselves. Another large downward revision would reinforce the view that the US labor market slowdown has been deeper than previously thought, while an upward revision could instead show that job creation has been underestimated.

What is the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision?

The monthly US employment report relies, among other sources, on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from businesses and government agencies to estimate the number of payroll employees in the United States (US).

Like any survey based on a sample, however, it is subject to a margin of error. Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics therefore compares its estimates with a much more comprehensive dataset, which is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

The QCEW is primarily based on unemployment insurance records that nearly all US employers are required to submit to authorities. Its coverage is much broader than that of the monthly survey, although the data are released with a lag of several months.

The benchmark revision essentially measures the difference between the employment level estimated by the CES survey and the level indicated by this more comprehensive dataset for March.

This distinction is crucial. Friday's figure is not a conventional revision to the NFP number for a particular month, nor does it directly represent the number of jobs created or lost over a year. Instead, it indicates how much the estimated total payroll employment level for the twelve months through March may need to be adjusted.

Importantly, Friday’s preliminary estimate will not immediately change the official payroll data. It is the final, benchmark revision, due in February 2027, that will be incorporated into the historical series with the Employment Situation report.

Why Friday's figure is attracting attention

Benchmark revisions used to be relatively modest, but they have become considerably larger in recent years. According to historical data presented by HAAWKS Research, the average absolute preliminary revision to total nonfarm employment was just 0.12% between 2016 and 2020. It increased to 0.34% between 2021 and 2025. Moreover, the 2024 and 2025 revisions were particularly notable.

In September 2025, the BLS estimated that the level of nonfarm employment in March 2025 should be revised downward by 911K jobs, or 0.6%. When the final benchmark revision was incorporated into the data in February 2026, the final March employment level was revised by minus 898K. 

Such a big revision raised questions about the ability of monthly surveys to accurately measure a labor market transformed by the pandemic, business births and deaths, and declining response rates to statistical surveys.

It also explains why a release once followed mainly by specialists could trigger a much stronger market reaction this year.

Another downward revision? Forecasts are unusually divided

Unlike last year, the available data do not clearly point to a significant overestimation of employment, and estimates ahead of the release are unusually divided. Wells Fargo sees an adjustment of around 100K jobs to the downside, while Pantheon Macroeconomics economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen expect an overstatement of roughly 200K jobs over the 12 months through March 2026.

On the other side of the debate, Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner expects an upward revision of around 250K jobs, while Guy Berger of MacroMostly also sees a small positive revision as the most likely outcome.

This divergence partly reflects the behavior of the QCEW during 2025. Through December, QCEW employment data tracked the monthly survey figures much more closely than during the periods preceding the large revisions of 2024 and 2025.

However, uncertainty remains high as the QCEW data available ahead of Friday’s release only run through December 2025, while preliminary QCEW estimates themselves can subsequently be revised.

A positive revision would not mean the labor market is strong again

This is probably the main trap surrounding Friday's release. The benchmark essentially looks in the rear-view mirror. It will provide a more accurate assessment of the one-year employment level through March 2026, but it will not directly tell investors what has happened since then.

US employment growth has already slowed considerably. According to Commerzbank, average monthly job growth stood at just 32K between August 2025 and July 2026. A positive revision of several hundred thousand jobs could therefore improve the starting level for the year, but it wouldn’t challenge the broader conclusion that the labor market has lost momentum this year.

Bernd Weidensteiner highlights precisely this distinction: "While the revision does change the baseline, even if it won’t be incorporated into the data until next year, it is unlikely to lead to a reassessment of labor market developments since March."

The Unemployment Rate, which comes from a separate household survey, is also unaffected by this revision. The benchmark applies to the establishment survey and therefore does not rewrite the entire picture of the US labor market.

What could the revision mean for the Federal Reserve and markets?

The market reaction will probably depend less on whether the revision is positive or negative than on its magnitude. A limited adjustment, whether slightly positive or negative, would support the view that the major discrepancies observed over the past two years have diminished. It could also suggest that methodological improvements to the monthly estimates are producing results that are closer to administrative employment data.

A large positive revision would represent a more significant surprise. It would indicate that the US economy had substantially created more jobs than previously reported, potentially easing some concerns about past labor market weakness.

The most market-sensitive scenario, however, would likely be another downward revision of several hundred thousand jobs. Such an outcome would revive questions about the reliability of monthly employment figures and could reinforce the perception that labor demand weakened faster than official statistics initially suggested.

This information would be particularly important for the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose policy decisions depend heavily on the balance between inflation and employment. If investors conclude that the labor market is more fragile than previously estimated, expectations for interest-rate hikes could decrease, weighing down on the US Dollar (USD). Conversely, a significant positive revision could reinforce expectations of hikes, supporting the Greenback.

Friday's figure will not replace the next Nonfarm Payrolls report or the Unemployment Rate. It will answer a different question. Not how many jobs the US economy is creating now, but how much confidence investors should place in the employment levels they were given over the past year.

After the enormous revisions of 2024 and 2025, that question may ultimately prove just as important as the headline number itself.

Societe Generale’s Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki note that August Tokyo CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with renewed energy subsidies weighing on inflation and likely to drag on CPI through October. Non-fresh food inflation slowed despite upstream cost pressures, while services inflation picked up mainly on rents and medical charges, with limited implications so far for nationwide CPI but still supporting the BoJ’s hawkish path.

Tokyo CPI dynamics and BoJ outlook

"The resumption of electricity and gas subsidies weighed on inflation and should continue to drag on CPI through the October data."

"We had expected food inflation to enter a re-acceleration phase from August, but higher upstream costs appear to need more time to feed through to consumer prices."

"Underlying price pressure remains, however."

"As BoJ Deputy Governor Himino noted yesterday, repricing activity is likely to intensify in the coming months, while the Teikoku Databank survey points to another wave of price revisions toward year-end."

"This continues to support the BoJ’s hawkish path."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that they must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the objective, adding that they have work to do otherwise, while delivering opening remarks at the Kansas City Fed's 2026 Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight as financial conditions stay loose

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a distinctly hawkish-leaning message, with a 7.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing above the 6.5/10 historical average and underscoring a stronger-than-usual emphasis on the inflation mandate. The insistence that the Fed must be “confident underlying inflation is moving to objective, or we have work to do,” alongside comments that it is “hard-pressed” to call financial conditions restrictive and that recent disinflation has not “meaningfully changed” underlying trends, points to a bias against rapid easing even as growth, consumer spending, and business investment remain solid. Overall, the tone reinforces a firm 2% PCE target and signals that resilient activity and loose credit conditions could keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates too soon, a configuration typically supportive of the Dollar on a relative policy basis.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, holding at 129.70, which keeps the policy stance firmly in hawkish territory despite no incremental shift in the aggregate gauge. The combination of an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score and an FXS Fed Sentiment Index level well above the neutral 100 mark suggests that, even without a fresh hawkish jump in the index, markets should continue to price a relatively restrictive Fed path versus peers, with implications for Dollar outperformance on rate differentials.

Key takeaways

"Hard-pressed to describe financial conditions as restrictive."

"Consumer spending healthy, labor markets stable."

"Numbers more concerning on price stability."

"This summer's inflation data better than expected, but do not tell me underlying trends have meaningfully changed."

"Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices."

"At July meeting good majority felt wiser course was to wait."

"Impressed by the overall performance of economy, appears to have strengthened."

"Credit and loan markets showing few signs of policy restraint."

"Wage growth moderate, but not a reliable indicator of future inflation."

"Inflation expectations by and large look stable in medium term."

"Market prices show confidence that we will deliver price stability."

"Business investment rising rapidly."

"Important to gauge effects of high growth expectations for cap-ex, corporate earnings."

"Inflation expectations tend to look durable until they don't; must be closely minded."

"Fed's 2% PEC target is firm and fixed; it is Fed’s job to deliver stable prices."

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength with the immediate reaction to Fed Chair Warsh's comments. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.3% on the day at 99.43.

This section below was published on August 26 at 13:15 GMT as a preview of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's prepared speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.

The Jackson Hole symposium, held from August 27 to 29, has the official theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” However, investors are likely to pay much closer attention to what Warsh says, or does not say, about inflation, interest rates and the recent heightened volatility in the US bond market.

Since taking over at the Fed in May, Warsh has sought to reduce markets’ dependence on forward guidance. His objective is to allow economic data and markets to play a greater role in shaping interest-rate expectations rather than speeches from policymakers. This strategy, however, comes at a cost: Investors struggle to understand precisely how the new Fed’s reaction function works.

Jackson Hole could therefore become less about the next rate hike and more about Warsh’s credibility.

Why Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech matters so much

Jackson Hole does not always produce a change in monetary policy. However, several Fed chairs have used the symposium to deliver messages that profoundly influenced financial markets.

Ben Bernanke opened the door to further quantitative easing measures in 2010 and 2012. Jerome Powell used his 2022 speech to firmly reaffirm the priority of fighting inflation, before preparing markets for the beginning of the monetary easing cycle two years later.

Kevin Warsh arrives in Wyoming with a different philosophy. At his July press conference, he said he had not yet decided whether his speech would focus on broader structural questions or take a more traditional approach centered on monetary policy decisions expected between September and December.

Deutsche Bank believes the first option could see Warsh discuss the five task forces created by the Fed or the economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Under a more traditional format, he could instead revisit some of the ambiguities left by his July press conference and clarify his assessment of inflation and financial conditions.

The stakes are high as markets remain divided over the Fed’s next decision. Futures currently imply a chance of around 38% that the central bank will raise interest rates in September, according to the FedWatch tool.

Warsh’s communication strategy is becoming a market risk 

The paradox is that Warsh’s attempt to make markets less dependent on the Fed could, at least in the short term, make monetary policy more difficult to understand. Forward guidance traditionally allows investors to anticipate central-bank decisions, thereby reducing the risk of abrupt changes in expectations. Warsh instead believes that an overly communicative Fed can prevent markets from fully playing their role.

That break with the past is now at the heart of the debate. DBS Bank strategist Philip Wee sees Jackson Hole as an important test for the new chair: “The market needs a coherent policy framework.” He adds: “Without one, reduced forward guidance risks becoming less a return to market price discovery and more a source of uncertainty.”

Warsh does not need to tell markets what the Fed will do in September. But he may need to explain more clearly what would cause the central bank to act.

Can Warsh reassure markets without promising a rate hike?

The main test will probably concern inflation. The Fed maintains a 2% inflation target, but price pressures remain elevated enough to sustain the debate over another rate hike. Several policymakers are also concerned that inflation remaining above target for too long could eventually undermine inflation expectations among households and businesses.

The problem for Warsh is that simply reaffirming the 2% target may no longer be enough. Standard Chartered believes the Fed Chair needs, among other things, to restore confidence in the central bank’s determination to lower inflation and convince investors that a less interventionist Fed does not threaten macroeconomic stability.

An explicit message about the possibility of raising rates could help restore credibility. Warsh will probably need to make clear that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation fails to slow sufficiently.

However, MUFG argues that the inflation outlook does not justify the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from some FOMC members. While core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation accelerated during the first half of the year, price pressures are expected to ease over the coming quarters as supply shocks fade. MUFG notes that inflation forecasts in the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have changed very little in recent months. The bank also highlights that alternative inflation measures favored by Warsh, including Trimmed-Mean and Median PCE, show inflation running much closer to the Fed’s 2% target, suggesting that the current Federal Funds Rate (FFR) remains restrictive.

The US bond market makes Warsh’s task more complicated

Warsh’s challenge is no longer limited to policy rates. Heightened volatility in US Treasury bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, has created a new source of tension. The 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007 amid concerns about inflation, the trajectory of public debt and the scale of US government financing needs.

The Fed directly controls very short-term interest rates. It does not, however, control the additional premium investors demand to lend to the US government for ten, twenty or thirty years.

This is precisely where the problem becomes as much political as monetary. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently announced an increase in buybacks of longer-dated securities to improve market liquidity. This intervention contrasts with Warsh’s desire to let markets play a greater role in determining yields themselves.

The Fed’s response to the Treasury’s actions is one of the key issues to watch on Friday. BNY strategist Geoff Yu writes: “For rates, the key question is simple: Does Warsh support, challenge, or avoid the Treasury’s recent buyback push and its impact on the curve?”

The question goes beyond the buybacks themselves. If investors begin to believe the Fed is adjusting monetary policy to limit the government’s borrowing costs, its inflation-fighting credibility could be undermined. Conversely, ignoring tensions in long-term yields could increase volatility and tighten financial conditions independently of decisions taken by the FOMC.

Warsh could ultimately say a lot without giving a September signal

Despite the considerable attention surrounding Jackson Hole, several banks warn that investors could be disappointed if they expect a clear signal about the September meeting.

“Warsh has refrained from laying out his near-term reaction function, a tactic we do not think he'll abandon only a few months into his tenure,” Wells Fargo says. Société Générale also expects the Fed Chair to prioritize his reform agenda and the work of the five task forces rather than provide an explicit indication of the interest-rate path.

MUFG, meanwhile, sees three broad possibilities: A speech focused primarily on digital finance, a balanced message combining structural themes with macroeconomic comments, or a much more ambitious presentation of Warsh’s new monetary policy framework.

The middle scenario seems most particularly consistent with his strategy so far, sharing enough information to avoid another surge in volatility, but not enough to turn Jackson Hole into a pre-announcement of the September decision.

What markets really need to listen for on Friday

The central question will probably not be whether Warsh is simply hawkish or dovish. Investors will instead need to determine whether the Fed Chair can replace forward guidance with something clear enough to keep expectations anchored.

Three elements could be particularly important. First, Warsh could clarify the conditions that would justify another rate hike without committing to a specific date. A clear statement that the FOMC remains prepared to tighten policy if inflation fails to converge toward 2% could reassure markets about the Fed’s credibility.

Second, investors will monitor his assessment of the rise in long-term yields. Presenting the move as a normal example of market price discovery would be consistent with his philosophy, but could disappoint investors looking for a response to recent tensions.

Finally, any reference to relations between the Fed and the Treasury will be closely scrutinized to determine whether the two institutions are pursuing complementary objectives or whether a divergence is emerging over how financial conditions should be managed.

TD Securities believes the consequences could be asymmetric for the US Dollar. “USD risks are skewed modestly to the downside. Any hawkish clarification on inflation credibility may provide only limited USD support. Alternatively, failure to address inflation credibility could weigh more materially on the dollar.”

That may be where the real stakes of Jackson Hole lie. A strongly hawkish speech could push yields and expectations of further rate hikes higher. A more dovish message could weigh on the US Dollar and support rate-sensitive assets. But an overly vague speech could increase uncertainty over monetary policy and a persistently higher risk premium on US government bonds.

Warsh wants a less predictable Fed. On Friday, markets will mainly be looking to see whether he can make it less predictable without making it less credible.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen and colleagues say German GDP has surprised on the upside, expanding around 0.35% per quarter over the last three quarters, driven mainly by stronger exports to EU partners. Their Early Bird indicator and improved business sentiment point to continued recovery, but weak private investment and structural issues mean German growth should remain only moderate.

Exports support but investment lags

"The German economic cycle appears to have turned to the upside The main driver of the fairly robust growth over the past three quarters has been stronger foreign demand, while government investment has not yet risen sustainably, despite the special funds. Leading indicators offer hope that this recovery will continue."

"According to the latest GDP figures released last Tuesday, the German economy grew even more strongly in the second quarter than previously assumed. As a result, economic output has risen by an average of 0.35% in each of the last three quarters compared to the previous quarter."

“The odds are also good that the recovery will continue later this year and into next year. This is supported, on the one hand, by businesses’ somewhat more positive expectations as of late. In addition, our own leading indicator, the Early Bird, shows that economic conditions remain above average.”

"Given the upward revision to second-quarter figures and the expectation that the third quarter will be less weak than previously assumed, there are slight upside risks to our growth forecast of 1% this year. However, uncertainty remains regarding how the conflict in the Middle East – and thus energy prices – will continue to develop."

“Furthermore, despite recent developments that have generally exceeded expectations, there is still no sign of a self-sustaining recovery. For that to happen, private investment would need to rise, but it fell again in the second quarter.”

"For this reason, growth in the German economy is unlikely to pick up significantly in the coming quarters but will instead remain moderate."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD edges slightly lower on Friday as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech.
• The US Dollar benefits from calls by several Federal Reserve officials for tighter monetary policy amid persistent inflation.
• The latest US inflation data show that price pressures remain well above the central bank’s target.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1645 on Friday, posting a modest 0.07% decline on the day as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The pair remains under pressure after resuming its recent downward trend, with the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from a more hawkish tone among several US central bank officials. Markets are now looking to determine whether Warsh will reinforce these signals or adopt a more cautious approach regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Recent comments from Fed officials lean toward tighter monetary policy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that it is time for the central bank to act by raising interest rates, warning that delaying action could cause more pain later. Hammack also noted that inflation could end the year at around 3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target, and argues that financial conditions are currently not particularly restrictive.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also highlighted persistent inflationary pressures on Thursday, arguing that policymakers need to continue looking for ways to bring inflation under control.

Against this backdrop, Warsh’s speech represents the main catalyst for EUR/USD on Friday. Comments confirming the need to maintain or further tighten monetary policy could continue to support the US Dollar and weigh on the pair. Conversely, a more cautious-than-expected message could provide some relief to the Euro (EUR).

EUR/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1643, keeping a mild bearish bias as it continues to hold below both the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) at 1.1658 and 1.1655 respectively, as well as the descending resistance trend line around 1.1667. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 sits in neutral-to-soft territory, which suggests sellers retain the upper hand while upside attempts remain capped by this nearby confluence of resistance.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-period SMA at 1.1655, followed closely by the 100-period SMA at 1.1658 and the downtrend resistance line near 1.1667; a sustained break above this cluster would be needed to ease the current pressure and open the way toward the horizontal barrier at 1.1711. On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of 1.1614, where a clear break lower would likely reinforce the bearish tone and expose deeper losses in the near term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)