Forex News
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $52.51 per troy ounce, down 1.58% from the $53.35 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 26.13% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 52.51 |
1 Gram | 1.69 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 77.92 on Tuesday, up from 77.63 on Monday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj and colleagues, argues that the US Dollar (USD) is losing its status as an effortless haven, with muted gains despite an AI-driven global equity selloff. They expect US vs Rest of the World (RoW) equity performance to remain the key driver.
Muted haven appeal and modest downside
"We continue to see US vs RoW relative equity performance as the main driver for the broad USD. Muted USD upside despite equity risk-off last week confirms our view that the USD is no longer the effortless haven currency it used to be. Although the USD rallied after US payrolls on Friday, the size of the payrolls surprise would validate the size of the USD move on the day (we previously estimated the DXY index would rally by +0.1% on the day for every +20k job gain surprise vs consensus forecast). If the AI-led US equity underperformance persists, we would expect the USD to end the year modestly weaker like it did in 2018."
"While we expect some modest USD downside into year-end, the magnitude will likely be muted as the EUR remains impaired by the French debt fragility. At the same time, we also find insufficient reasons for the USD to see a meaningful breakout to the upside, as aggregate USD positioning remains long, the market has likely priced in peak Fed hawkishness, and there is room for the USD to catch down toward the US equity market's relative underperformance."
"Although the USD continues to rank favorably in our scorecard, its overall standing has deteriorated over the past month."
"USD still benefits from a supportive external balance backdrop, a US economy that remains resilient, and its attractive carry profile. However, Equity factor has turned bearish USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Chris Turner projects EUR/USD to trade soft in a 1.10–1.15 range over the next four to five months as French budget politics keep a risk premium in the Euro ahead of April elections.
French risks cap Euro near term
"French budgetary politics look set to keep a risk premium in the euro ahead of April's elections."
"We therefore see EUR/USD trading offered in a 1.10-15 range over the next four to five months."
"From the second quarter, however, softer US rates, moderating energy prices and clarity on French politics could trigger a gentle recovery in EUR/USD towards 1.18 by year-end 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has weakened, with the Dollar Index dropping below Friday’s high as Brent declines towards USD90. Lower Oil prices and falling US Treasury yields are easing pressure on the Fed, while markets await the October US CPI report. Futures still price a December Fed hike but fewer moves in 2027.
Dollar softens as yields retreat
"The US dollar has continued to trade at weaker levels overnight after giving back all of its gains yesterday following the release of the stronger NFP report on Friday."
"The move lower in energy prices is also helping to bring down government borrowing costs."
"If there is further progress towards a US-Iran deal to end the conflict it would help to sustain lower energy prices and ease pressure on major central banks including the Fed to keep hiking rates."
"The main focus today will be the release of the latest US CPI report for October."
"The US rate market still expects the Fed to hike rates again as planned at the end of this year in December but has been scaling back expectations for further hikes in 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the Fed may need to hike rates in December if core CPI inflation data for October comes in higher than expected. The support for more interest rate hikes from Fed’s Waller comes at a time when market experts doubt that the central bank will continue raising interest rates due to lower oil prices.
Additional remarks
Half-point Fed rate hike may be needed in December, if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher.
Would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves vs September.
US inflation is too high, ‘September’s inflation data were bad’.
Was willing to wait on policy tightening in October; What matters is that promised hikes are delivered in a reasonable period of time.
Particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases.
Suspect GDP growth is backing off in current quarter, but output will continue to grow at solid pace.
Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead, and potential for energy price shock to be more persistent.
Labor market solid, supply and demand roughly in balance, employment close to Fed’s goal.
Unclear if labor market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests; dynamism and productivity growth questions need more research.
Market reaction
A V-shape recovery can be spotted in the US Dollar (USD) after hawkish comments from Fed's Waller. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) turns flat at around 101.67.
Waller flags risk of larger december hike as Fed tone turns more hawkish
Fed’s Waller delivered a distinctly more hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.6/10, well above the 7.2/10 historical average, underscoring a stronger tightening bias relative to the established baseline. The explicit openness to a half-point FED rate hike in December if October core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, alongside support for at least a quarter-point move even on better data, signals a high bar for pausing and a clear intent to lean against persistent inflation. Emphasis on “bad” September inflation, broad-based price pressures, and the risk of more persistent producer and energy price shocks reinforces upside risks for the Dollar as markets reprice the path of policy.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.58 points to 143.91, confirming a deeper move into hawkish territory and aligning with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. With the index far above the neutral 100 mark, the speech strengthens expectations for additional tightening and supports a higher-for-longer FED rate narrative in FX and rates markets.
- Gold attracts some sellers on Tuesday as geopolitical risks and Fed hike bets support the USD.
- The downside seems limited as traders await the release of the US consumer inflation figures.
- The constructive technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday descent and slides below the $4,100 mark during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, reversing a major part of the previous day's strong gains to the $4,150 resistance. Firming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations turn out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to lure buyers amid mixed signals regarding the state of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran. This, in turn, could offer some support to the commodity as traders seem hesitant ahead of US consumer inflation figures.
In the latest developments around the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump said that there was positive momentum toward ending the war on Iran, and that a resumption of strikes is quite unlikely, declaring the conflict effectively over. However, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, dismissed reports of active negotiations as fake news and reiterated that Washington must accept Tehran's seven conditions to end the conflict. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, albeit it does little to revive demand for the safe-haven USD and acts as a tailwind for the Gold price.
Meanwhile, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed last Friday that employment rose by 165K in October, surpassing even the most optimistic estimates. Moreover, the readings for August and September were revised upward by a combined 84K. Adding to this, a downtick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1% signaled continued resilience in the economy and underpins prospects for additional Fed tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December, which is seen exerting pressure on the Gold.
Traders, however, opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to gold. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD pair's recent recovery from the $3,870 region, or the lowest since September 2025, touched last month, has run its course and before positioning for the resumption of the depreciating move witnessed over the past two months or so.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair holds a constructive near-term bias following the recent breakout above the 100-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, momentum indicators stay mildly positive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering near 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just above the zero line. This suggests that upside pressure remains intact while not yet overstretched.
Hence, any subsequent slide could find immediate support near the 200-period SMA at $4,103 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,059, while the 100-period SMA around $4,042 forms a deeper cushion that would need to hold to preserve the current bullish structure. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. level near $4,180, ahead of the 50.0% retracement around $4,279 and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement, close to $4,377, which together outline the next bullish objectives if buyers extend the advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
ING's Chris Turner flags Japan as a potential positive growth surprise that could weigh on USD/JPY. Turner notes South Korea’s chip-led upswing and upgraded GDP forecasts as a template, with Japan supplying key manufacturing equipment and benefiting from loose fiscal policy.
Stronger Japan could hit USD/JPY
"We’re also watching Japan for signs that it could follow South Korea’s lead and deliver stronger growth."
"There, chip exports have benefited the broader economy and the Bank of Korea revised up this year’s GDP forecast to 3.3%, from 1.8% at the start of 2026."
"Japan supplies the manufacturing equipment and materials for chip production."
"Broader benefits to the economy from loose fiscal policy could see upside surprises to Japanese growth, tighter Bank of Japan policy and a much weaker USD/JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities analysts see the Canadian Dollar (CAD) under pressure versus the Dollar, with USD/CAD expected to stay supported around 1.40.
Jobs divergence underpins Dollar strength
"For investors looking to chase USD upside, we see USDCAD more supported at 1.40 on the back of diverging jobs data."
"Across global major currencies, we see room for the USD to rally selectively against CAD and KRW in the near-term. Diverging employment data releases will likely keep USDCAD supported above 1.40. Rising unemployment rate amid falling wage growth rate in Canada also reduces the market pricing of a December BoC rate hike relative to the Fed."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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