Forex News
- GBP/USD dips under 1.3150, an 11-month low, then climbs back near 1.3200.
- US prices rise 3.7% on the year, and Treasury yields jump before reversing.
- UK August GDP is forecast to contract, and BoE Governor Bailey speaks Friday.
Hotter US inflation figures knocked GBP/USD to its lowest since late November 2025, and the pair is back near 1.3200, the floor of its range since late September. It dropped from just above 1.3250 on the release to just under 1.3150 at the low, and has recovered about two-fifths of that since.
US consumer prices were up 3.7% on the year in September against a 3.6% forecast, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped from about 5.19% to about 5.33% on the release. The yield has since come back to about 5.20%, but the Pound has lost more against the Dollar than any other major currency on Wednesday.
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Pill voted with external members Greene and Mann in September to raise the UK's Bank Rate from 3.75%. On Wednesday he said he's a bit sceptical of the four hikes markets price over the next year, which leaves traders expecting more from the BoE than one of its keenest advocates of a hike does. The UK side of the rate gap GBP/USD follows was being talked down before the US release pushed the other side up.
On the calendar
The UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure for August, due on Thursday, is forecast to show a 0.1% contraction after 0.4% growth in July, with factory output forecast down 0.1% after a 0.9% rise. Chief Economist Pill speaks again on Thursday and BoE Governor Bailey on Friday, ahead of the November 5 decision. A shrinking economy would make the four hikes in market prices harder to defend.
US retail sales, due on Thursday with producer prices and weekly jobless claims, are forecast to rise 0.3% in September after a 1.2% jump, and Fed Chair Warsh is due to speak on Friday. Traders already put a December Fed hike near 95%, so the US figures bear mostly on whether it arrives on October 28 instead.
On the charts
Wednesday's low went just under the late-June low, where the climb to the August 21 high just under 1.3700 began, so GBP/USD has given back that whole rally. The pair has traded beneath both its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now near 1.3350, and its 200-day EMA, short of 1.3400, since September 17, and both averages are falling.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- GBP/JPY rejects 210.31, reversing its earlier descending trendline breakout.
- RSI remains bearish as fading momentum favors further downside.
- Break below 208.50 exposes 208.20, 208.00 and 206.89 next.
The GBP/JPY dives over 0.45% on Wednesday as market mood turns sour on red-hot US inflation data, which drove US equities lower and fueled speculation that major central banks would need to tighten monetary policy. The cross-pair exchanges hands at 208.89, after reaching a high of 210.31.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Earlier, the GBP/JPY cleared a downward resistance trendline and hit the day’s high, ahead of the release of US CPI data. Once released, the Pound weakened and the Yen, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, pushed the pair below 209.00 toward current spot prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bullish momentum has somewhat faded, though it remains bearish-biased, suggesting further downside.
The GBP/JPY first support is 208.50. A breach of the latter will expose the October 8 low of 208.20, followed by 208.00. Once cleared, the next stop is the year-to-date (YTD) low of 206.89, ahead of the December 16 cycle low of 206.78
For a bullish reversal, traders must first drive the spot price above 209.00, followed by the high of the day (HOD) at 210.31. If achieved, the September 18 high of 211.28 sits above, which, once surpassed, paves the way for buyers to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.43.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.50% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.31% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | 0.10% | -0.41% | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.10% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.50% | -0.10% | -0.50% | -0.39% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.41% | 0.50% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.38% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.28% | 0.39% | -0.15% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | 0.24% | 0.33% | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.13% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | 0.10% | 0.19% | -0.38% | -0.20% | -0.13% | 0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.31% | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.28% | -0.21% | -0.10% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank analysts report that Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song sees inflation, exchange rate and financial stability pointing policy in the same direction, ahead of the 22 October meeting where rates may be left unchanged after two hikes. He views further Won gains as desirable, while USD/KRW is steady around 1,342 and the Won has rallied 16% versus the Dollar since early July.
Governor backs Won appreciation stance
"Bank of Korea (BoK) Governor Shin Hyun-song stated that inflation, the exchange rate, and financial stability all point monetary policy in the same direction. These comments come ahead of BoK’s next meeting on 22 October, where it could leave rates unchanged after back-to-back 25bp hikes in July and August."
"Governor Shin also stated that further gains in the won would be desirable as it would shift the balance towards the domestic economy. This would help smooth the uneven growth pattern which has been led by AI-related exports. From a growth perspective, the electronic upcycle has more than offset the drag from the Middle East conflict."
"However, Governor Shin noted that stronger demand could also add to cost pressures from higher global crude oil prices. This suggests that BoK could prioritise flexibility in the near term and remain data dependent."
"In FX, USD/KRW held steady at around 1,342 yesterday. The KRW has rallied 16% vs the USD since the low in early July, supported by a strong trade surplus, exporters' repatriation inflows, and narrower interest rate differentials."
"There were also reports in the local media that the government is considering cutting treasury bond issuance to stabilise the bond market. It is reviewing two options. The government could either cut issuance by KRW5tn in each of the November and December auction, or reduce it by a total of KRW5tn through December. This comes after an earlier KRW5tn cut in October. The 10Y Korea Treasury Bond yield has fallen by around 30bp since the high in late September of 4.52% to 4.23%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN surges 0.65%, reaching 18.60 before retreating toward 18.51.
- US headline inflation accelerates to 3.7%, while core CPI reaches 2.6%.
- October Fed hike odds jump to 42% ahead of US PPI.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciates versus the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, down 0.65% on the heels of hot US inflation data, fueling bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates at the October meeting. The USD/MXN pair trades at 18.51, after bouncing off daily lows of 18.35.
USD/MXN hits 18.60 as hot US CPI fuels October Fed hike bets
The exotic pair resumed its uptrend and hit a high of 18.60 as US CPI ignited an increase in hawkish bets for this month's meeting. September CPI rose above estimates, to 3.7% YoY and 0.6% month-on-month, as expected.
The jump in gasoline, diesel, and food prices drove the reacceleration of headline CPI. Excluding volatile items, the so-called core CPI expanded from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY, also above the street’s projections.
Underlying prices drifted higher on a rise in shelter, owners' equivalent rent, recreation and education costs.
Given the backdrop, investors increased the odds for a rate hike from 22% a day ago to 42% for the October meeting. Meanwhile, market participants turn the page, eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
Recently, Fed officials crossed the wires. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that CPI data "was discoursing,” adding that hot CPI is “unacceptable,” reaffirming his hawkish stance in a Yahoo! Finance interview.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said CPI ran too hot and that he is open to a hike at October’s meeting.
On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said that he sees another rate hike in 2026 and none in 2027.
The US economic calendar will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and additional Fed speeches.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.4925, extending its advance above the reclaimed downward trend line, last resisted around 18.1200, and the clustered simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day) near 17.37. Price location above these structural levels sets a bullish near-term bias, although the Relative Strength Index (14) around 73 signals overbought conditions that hint at stretched upside momentum and raise the risk of a corrective pause rather than an immediate trend reversal.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the former resistance trend line near 18.12, which now acts as the first buffer ahead of the grouped long-term simple moving averages around 17.37, while a deeper pullback would expose the horizontal floor at 16.89. With no clear overhead resistance levels in play from the current dataset, dips toward the 18.12–17.37 area are likely to attract buyers as long as the pair holds above these supports, even if overbought momentum prompts short-term consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said that “CPI data was discouraging,” adding that services inflation in the CPI “was a concern,” in an interview with Yahoo! Finance on Wednesday.
Goolsbee added that he is “hearing about costs and prices from contacts,” and that he has no worries about a recession. He added that the economy “has work to do on the inflation side,” and reaffirmed that the Fed will get inflation back to 2%.
Key highlights:
CPI data was 'discouraging'
Service inflation in CPI was a concern
Key to focus on trend of inflation, not one report
Hearing about cost and prices from contacts, not hearing about worries about recession
Hopes energy will fade soon from inflation data
The economy has work to do the inflation side
Is not a fan of telegraphing Fed moves ahead of meetings
There is no ambiguity for Fed if economy is solid and inflation is high
Fed must prevent the build-up of overheating
More optimistic about outlook relative to other Fed officials
There is evidence that the building inflation hasn't been transitory amid continued shocks
Need to keep a close eye on service sector inflation
Tariff impacts on prices are more lasting than expected
More bad months of inflation would be unacceptable
Fed will get inflation back to 2%
Doesn't want to tie hands on monetary policy outlook
If the current inflation levels hold, policy would need to address that
Consumers, GDP, and investment levels have been strong
AI hype could cause even more tech sector investment, which would risk overheating
A slowdown in AI investment doesn't have to mean a recession
I want to keep an eye on the financial stability implications of AI investment
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.51% | -0.03% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.45% | 0.25% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | 0.10% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.22% | 0.00% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | -0.51% | -0.10% | -0.52% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.10% | -0.26% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.44% | 0.52% | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.49% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.16% | 0.33% | -0.25% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | 0.22% | 0.31% | -0.24% | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.45% | -0.00% | 0.10% | -0.49% | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.25% | 0.16% | 0.26% | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
MUFG’s Michael Wan reports that the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised markets by holding its exchange rate policy unchanged in October, against expectations for slight tightening. MAS sees core inflation easing from mid-2027, subdued domestic costs and a narrowing output gap as the AI cycle cools. Forward guidance suggests the Singapore Dollar policy band will keep appreciating to counter imported inflation.
Policy band to keep S$NEER firm
"The surprise in markets was an unexpected hold by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in its October policy, with no change to the slope or the width of the exchange rate policy band, relative to a very slight tightening in policy in the July meeting."
"The consensus and the market were positioned and expecting for MAS tightening very slightly once again this meeting. The Singapore central bank said in its statement that core inflation is expected to ease discernibly from the middle of next year, with domestic costs to stay subdued and helped by an expected slowing in supply-driven imported inflation. "
"Meanwhile, MAS also expects the positive output gap to narrow through next year as the AI cycle eases. What’s also interesting is that MAS highlighted contained unit labour cost increase in the services sector due to continued productivity gains as one key driver dampening inflation, and this could partly reflect authorities’ concerns around softening of Singapore’s labour market and some higher retrenchments in Singapore’s services sector."
"Net-net, the “forward guidance” in MAS monetary policy statement sounds like the central bank might remain on hold for now unless the situation changes, with MAS saying it is well-positioned to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and the current appreciating policy band will allow the S$NEER to continue to strengthen and lean against anticipated near-term rise in imported inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin, a voter in 2027, said Wednesday that he doesn’t see AI job losses happening at scale, adding that investment is mostly focused on AI.
“I do not want to project the outcome of the October FOMC meeting,” said Barkin, adding that CPI data “was higher than I would have hoped.” He added that the PPI release will help him to inform his inflation outlook.
Key highlights:
Not seeing AI job losses happening at scale
No question investment side of economy largely from AI.
Cannot count on AI investment to grow till end of time.
I do not want to project the outcome of the October FOMC meeting.
The CPI report was higher than I would have hoped.
Tomorrow's producer price data is going to help inform my inflation outlook.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.55% | -0.09% | 0.23% | 0.26% | 0.45% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | 0.16% | -0.48% | -0.16% | -0.16% | 0.02% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.55% | -0.16% | -0.63% | -0.34% | -0.31% | -0.11% | -0.33% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.48% | 0.63% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.59% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.23% | 0.16% | 0.34% | -0.35% | 0.02% | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | 0.16% | 0.31% | -0.36% | -0.02% | 0.19% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.45% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.59% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | 0.18% | 0.33% | -0.34% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Euro hits a fresh low since May 2025 as stronger US inflation lifts the Greenback.
- EUR/USD trades below its 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader technical picture bearish.
- The ADX near 53 points to strong selling pressure, while the RSI signals oversold conditions.
EUR/USD loses nearly 0.50% on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, lifting the US Dollar (USD) to fresh year-to-date highs above 102.50. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1145 after touching an intraday low of 1.1113, its lowest level since May 2025.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in a 43% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, up from 22% before the release, while the probability of a December rate hike stands near 95%.
TD Securities argues that "today's report makes the Fed's calculus for October more complicated following recent clear guidance about skipping a hike at the next meeting." They now estimate a "solid 0.36% m/m gain for core PCE," and highlight that "Fed leadership appears to have decided to execute a gradual tightening cycle on the back of market pricing, through with the notable broad-based rise in yields partly doing some of the tightening for them."
Expectations of further Fed tightening keep EUR/USD vulnerable to more losses, with France’s fiscal and political troubles adding to the Euro’s (EUR) headwinds.
Technical analysis
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has faced sustained selling pressure since mid-August, after buyers failed to break above 1.1700. The pair has since reversed sharply, falling below its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The 50-day SMA at 1.1481, the 100-day SMA at 1.1479 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1588 all sit well above spot, suggesting the pair remains entrenched in a broader downtrend.
Momentum conditions reinforce this tone, with the RSI on the daily chart hovering in oversold territory near 26 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holding below zero with a negative line, while the rising Average Directional Index around 53 hints at a strong, persistent bearish trend.
On the topside, immediate resistance lies at the 1.1200 psychological mark, followed by 1.1350. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA at 1.1483 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1489 form a firm resistance zone. The 200-day SMA at 1.1591 presents a further hurdle ahead of 1.1700.
On the downside, initial support stands at 1.1150. A break below this level could open the door to the 1.1000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.63% | 0.68% | 0.57% | 0.12% | -0.25% | 0.82% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | -1.63% | -0.95% | -1.02% | -1.46% | -1.87% | -0.80% | -1.67% | |
| GBP | -0.68% | 0.95% | -0.10% | -0.53% | -0.96% | 0.15% | -0.65% | |
| JPY | -0.57% | 1.02% | 0.10% | -0.48% | -0.86% | 0.31% | -0.61% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 1.46% | 0.53% | 0.48% | -0.38% | 0.77% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.25% | 1.87% | 0.96% | 0.86% | 0.38% | 1.09% | 0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.82% | 0.80% | -0.15% | -0.31% | -0.77% | -1.09% | -0.91% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 1.67% | 0.65% | 0.61% | 0.19% | -0.24% | 0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) released its Beige Book, a qualitative report that summarises regional and national economic conditions and is used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at each of its eight monetary policy meetings.
The Beige Book stated that “most districts” saw little change in overall employment levels and that, since the previous Beige Book release, two of the twelve districts reported moderate growth in economic activity.
Despite this, the book said that expectations “tend to be for slight growth.” Three districts reported robust price growth, while three of eight districts noted intensifying input price pressures.
Key highlights:
Most districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels.
Since the prior Beige Book, two of the twelve Federal Reserve districts reported moderate growth in economic activity.
However, expectations tend to be for slight growth, weighted toward manufacturing and burdened by persistent uncertainties.
Three districts characterized overall price growth as robust, while eight noted that growth was moderate—and three of the eight noted that input price pressures were intensifying, if not already growing robustly.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as softening within a 6.6900–6.7000 range, with scope for a dip below 6.6900 while major support at 6.6800 should hold. On a 1–3 week view, a close below 6.6900 could trigger a move toward 6.6800. Over 1–3 months, they expect the pair to edge lower below the cloud.
Dollar bias tilts slightly lower
"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 6.6950 yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 6.6900 and 6.7000.” USD then traded within a range of 6.6900/6.6984. Despite the relatively quiet price action, the underlying tone has softened somewhat. Today, USD could dip below 6.6900 but it is currently unclear whether it can maintain a foothold below this level. Nevertheless, the next major support at 6.6800 is unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, resistance is at 6.6990."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted two days ago (12 Oct, spot at 6.6940) that “if USD breaks and closes below 6.6900, it may lead to a move toward 6.6800.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as USD holds below 6.7050 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
