Forex News

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky note the US Dollar (USD) has started the week on a firm footing, helped by stabilising AI sentiment, a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop and high energy prices. They highlight US consumer confidence as key near-term drivers, and expect the Dollar to remain broadly supported around the FOMC decision.

Dollar supported into FOMC week

"The dollar has found good support early this week, as stabilising AI-related sentiment has allowed markets to reconnect with the broader supportive backdrop of a hawkish Federal Reserve and high energy prices."

"Pre-FOMC positioning may also be kicking in, with the forward-looking FX market viewing Chair Kevin Warsh's reiteration of inflation commitments as reinforcing the structural floor for the dollar. As discussed in our preview, we sympathise with this view and expect a broadly supported dollar this week."

"Today, the US calendar is rather busy. The highlight is the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which surprisingly plummeted to 81.9 in September. We expect an 81.5 print; consensus is 81.0."

"Surprises here aren’t likely to be enough to sway tomorrow’s Fed tone, but pricing for further tightening has shown some fragility of late, and evidence of deteriorating consumer mood could enter the equation. The other releases are all lower tier: September’s durable goods orders and new home sales, as well as the Richmond Fed manufacturing index."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF extended its rapid rise to 0.8278, leaving short-term conditions overbought but still allowing scope for a test of 0.8290, with limited potential for sustained gains above that level. On a 1–3 week horizon, upward momentum is building from a previously neutral stance, and a daily close above 0.8290 could open room toward 0.8320, provided 0.8230 holds as strong support.

Watching 0.8290 for bullish confirmation

"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD rose sharply to a high of 0.8255. Yesterday, when USD was at 0.8250, we indicated that “the rapid rise could extend, but a clear break above 0.8265 appears unlikely.” USD rose more than expected to 0.8278 before settling at 0.8271 (+0.27%). Conditions are overbought after the sharp rise over the past two days, but there is scope for USD to test 0.8290. A sustained advance above this level is unlikely. Support is at 0.8250."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view from negative to neutral yesterday (26 Oct, spot at 0.8250). We indicated that “downward momentum has faded.” We also indicated that USD “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8200 and 0.8290.” We did not quite expect USD to approach 0.8290 so quickly as it rose to a high of 0.8278. Upward momentum is starting to build, and if USD closes above 0.8290, it could rise to 0.8320. To sustain the momentum buildup, USD must not break below 0.8230 (‘strong support’ level)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and team note AUD/USD has defended its March uptrend near 0.6900 and is trading sideways around the 100-day moving average, outperforming G10 currencies ahead of Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision. They highlight nearby resistance at 0.7050/0.7080, with short-term support at 0.6950 and scope for a larger rebound if resistance breaks.

Aussie holds trend support

"AUD/USD defended the ascending trend line drawn since March near 0.6900, resulting in a brief rebound."

"The pair is now approaching the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 200-DMA at 0.7050/0.7080, which represents an important interim resistance zone."

"If AUD/USD overcomes this hurdle, a larger rebound cannot be ruled out."

"The low achieved last week at 0.6950 is a short-term support."

"Spot grinding sideways, glued to 100dma (0.7033), outperforms G10 with NZD ahead of Aussie September and 3Q CPI, and RBNZ interest rates decision tonight (consensus +25bp)."

"Support 0.6950, resistance 0.7080."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad describes a brutal election shock for Brazilian assets, with USD/BRL spiking before stabilizing and local equities and bonds plunging. He argues President Lula’s tolerance for higher debt may weigh on Brazilian markets, but notes conservative legislative constraints and Brazil’s attractive carry and commodity exposure as structural supports for the Brazilian Real.

Brazilian assets digest election

"The election shock to Brazilian assets was brutal. USD/BRL stabilized around 5.4200 after spiking nearly 12% to as high as 5.6000 intraday yesterday. The move was the largest single-day drop in BRL since the currency was introduced in July 1994 and more than reversed the rally sparked by Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong first round showing earlier this month."

"President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva greater tolerance for rising debt may keep Brazilian assets under pressure. However, legislative constraints should keep BRL weakness in check. Lula faces a conservative Congress and needs centrist support to pass legislation, limiting the scope for runaway fiscal expansion."

"Importantly, Brazil’s attractive carry and strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key structural tailwinds for BRL."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• The Indian Rupee is under pressure against the US Dollar amid strong demand for US Dollars.
• Oil prices retreat as fears of widening internal Middle East conflicts ease.
• The RBI is expected to intervene at around 95.30, traders say.

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure the US Dollar (USD) as demand for US Dollars remains significant due to elevated oil prices. On Tuesday, the USD/INR pair holds onto three-day gains near 95.20

As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is up 0.37% to near Rs. 9,760, but is close to its recent highs of Rs. 9,828.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet its energy demands, tend to underperform in a high oil-price environment.

Oil prices rebounds after correction

Oil prices retreated from recent highs as fears of broadening Middle East conflicts have eased, following reports that Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have agreed to continue security discussions and enhance regional cooperation.

On Monday, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reported that high-level talks held in Tehran joined by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey aimed at representing the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. The agreement stated that the four countries had agreed to maintain dialogue and consultations, particularly on regional peace, security and stability.

Meanwhile, fears that the United States (US) and Israel could resume attacks on Iran after their respective elections have lent strength to oil prices.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU warned that political rhetoric from Washington is adding to the region’s vulnerability to higher energy costs. They highlight that with US President Trump "hinting at renewed military action against Iran after the US midterm elections," any "renewed escalation that pushes crude materially higher would amplify the adverse terms-of-trade and inflation shock for the region’s net energy importers and those with current account deficits." This leaves Asian economies particularly exposed to a further spike in oil prices driven by Middle East risk.

Investors expect RBI to intervene soon

With the Indian currency facing one-way depreciation against the US Dollar in the past few days, financial markets expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to intervene soon.

According to a Reuters report, traders see 95.30 as a key level to watch, given the RBI's more aggressive intervention around that level. A sustained break could expose the rupee to a deeper decline toward 96 per ​dollar, they said.

Fed’s policy in focus

This week, the major trigger for global markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the upcoming Fed decision to be uneventful in terms of the formal communiqué, noting that “the statement itself [is] to contain only limited changes, although dissents to a hold are possible.” In their view, “the interest will therefore be in Chair Warsh’s press conference and how the Fed balances still-elevated inflation and solid growth against the recent tightening in financial conditions,” with markets likely to scrutinize his remarks for any shift in the policy narrative.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR returns above nine-day EMA

In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.24, holding just above the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.12, which offers immediate short-term support. The pair has retreated from the mid-96s seen earlier in the month, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.05 sits below the 50 line, hinting at waning bullish pressure and a consolidative to mildly corrective bias rather than a strong directional move.

On the downside, the 9-period EMA at 95.12 is the initial support level traders will watch; a sustained break below this floor would open the door for deeper losses toward the June 25 low at 94.16. On the topside, the October 12 high at 95.80 appears as key key hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Silver recoups some of losses after hitting a fresh YTD low near $52.67.
• Upbeat US Dollar is keeping the Silver price under pressure.
• Investors await the Fed’s policy, flash Q3 GDP and PCE Price Index data for September.

Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back some of its losses after posting a fresh Year-Till-Date (YTD) low near $52.67. Still, the white metal is 1% down to near $53.45 in the European trade on Tuesday. Silver price remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 102.25, the highest level seen in 10 days. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.

Fed on hold as markets eye December hike signals

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the Fed is "widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, following September's 25bp increase," with Fed funds futures reinforcing the steady-rate narrative in the near term.

They highlight that "the Fed funds futures are pricing in no change this week, a total hike of 22bp by end-2026, and a total hike of 69bp by end-2027," underscoring expectations for only limited additional tightening further out. Against this backdrop, Commerzbank argues that "the markets will look for the Fed's guidance on the likelihood of a hike in December," as investors assess whether persistently high inflation and upcoming US data could still push the FOMC toward another move later in the year.

This week, investors will also focus on the preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for September, which are scheduled for Thursday.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $53.42, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot remains well below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $57.82. The wide gap between price and this key dynamic barrier suggests ongoing downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.22 hovers near oversold territory, hinting that sellers still control the tape even as the latest leg lower begins to look stretched.

On the topside, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the immediate resistance before the 20-day EMA at $57.82, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish tone and open room for a more meaningful recovery. On the downside, the asset could extend its decline towards $50.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)