Forex News
- Silver drops on Thursday, slipping back below the $70 level.
- Middle East tensions support the US Dollar amid rising risk aversion.
- Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations continue to pressure precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Thursday, hovering around $68.50 at the time of writing, down 3.85% on the day, extending its pullback after earlier gains this week.
The white metal is weighed down by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s rejection of a US-proposed ceasefire deal is fueling uncertainty, while ongoing military exchanges in the region maintain a strong risk-off environment. In this context, the Greenback regains its appeal as a safe-haven asset, mechanically pressuring USD-denominated precious metals.
At the same time, rising Oil prices are stoking global inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer. Investors are increasingly pricing in a prolonged restrictive stance from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed).
This repricing is pushing US Treasury yields higher, making Silver less attractive as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, capital flows are shifting toward liquidity, as investors move into cash positions to cover losses or reduce exposure amid heightened market volatility.
Despite the supportive backdrop that geopolitical tensions typically provide for safe-haven assets, Silver is struggling to benefit, as US Dollar strength and rising yields continue to dominate market dynamics.
Market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East, as well as on inflation trends and monetary policy expectations, which are likely to remain the key drivers for Silver in the near term.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/JPY trades higher near 159.70 as the US Dollar remains supported.
- Comments from Donald Trump downplaying the economic impact of Oil spikes and market declines helped reinforce confidence.
- Safe-haven demand, stable US yields, and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing continue to favor the Greenback.
The USD/JPY trades higher near the 159.70 level on Thursday, March 26, maintaining an overall bullish bias as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported while the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays under pressure.
United States (US) President Donald Trump stated that the recent spike in Oil prices and the decline in the stock market during the tensions with Iran were not as severe as he had anticipated. During a public appearance with Cabinet members, Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and asserted that any economic damage would eventually be reversed.
In response, the USD remains strong, supported by Trump’s comments, safe-haven demand, and stable yields amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite some fluctuations in risk sentiment, the overall trend still favors the US Dollar, as markets adjust their expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed.
Short-term technical analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.64. The near-term bias is neutral as the pair consolidates near recent highs above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which continue to slope higher and track an underlying uptrend. Price holding above the shorter SMA suggests buyers retain control on dips, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60 shows firm but not extreme upside momentum, leaving room for further gains as long as the pair stays supported above the moving average cluster.
Immediate support aligns at 159.44, followed by 159.28, where prior horizontal levels reinforce a demand zone on pullbacks. A sustained hold above these supports would keep the focus on resistance at 159.70, with a clear break opening the way for an extension of the bullish leg on the 4-hour horizon. A decisive drop below 159.28 would weaken the current positive tone and expose the 20-period SMA as the next downside reference.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Norges Bank delivered a hawkish shift, signalling upcoming rate hikes as inflation concerns extend beyond the energy shock. The bank now fully prices at least one hike in its projections, while ING expects only one move given its bearish Oil and gas baseline. ING still sees a downward-sloping EUR/NOK profile with solid Norwegian Krone prospects.
Hawkish repricing and NOK implications
"We had expected a hawkish shift in today’s Norges bank meeting, but the kind of commitment to rate increases that emerged in the statement came as a surprise. A near 10bp jump in 1-year NOK swap rates – on top of the +43bp move since the start of the war – signals markets were equally surprised by the hawkish messaging."
"But explicit concerns about broad-based inflationary issues and indications that other macro factors can favour inflation entrenching in Norway make us believe at least one hike is now looking likely. Incidentally, the committee noted that should it not hike, the krone could depreciate and remove a cushion for reduced imported inflation."
"Oil prices and incoming inflation figures will determine the timing. Markets are pricing in 16bp for May and 33bp for June. Considering some members already wanted to hike today, May looks slightly more likely. For now, we are only calling for one rate hike on the back of our bearish baseline view for oil and gas prices, but the chances of delivering two (fully priced in) are elevated."
"The NOK swap curve currently shows 60bp of tightening in the next year. As discussed above, two hikes are a tangible possibility (even if not our base case for now), but the 4.0% policy rate is already restrictive, especially in real terms. Even in Norges Bank’s latest projections, inflation would peak around 3.5%."
"We feel we are very close to the peak for front-end NOK swap rates and see risks on the downside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold edges lower on Thursday as uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations keeps markets on edge.
- Rising Oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, strengthening expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.
- Technically, XAU/USD remains under pressure below the 100-day SMA, maintaining a short-term bearish bias.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the conflict keeps markets on edge, with price action largely driven by hawkish global interest rate expectations stemming from an Oil-driven inflation shock.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,444, down roughly 1.38% on the day, retreating from Wednesday’s high near $4,602.
US-Iran talks remain unclear
While the United States (US) pushes for a diplomatic breakthrough, Iran has rejected a proposed 15-point plan, stating that any agreement would be on its own terms and only once its conditions are met, including security guarantees and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s refusal of a proposed deal is increasing the risk of a prolonged conflict, especially with reports of additional US troop deployments to the region. Press TV cited the Iranian Army as warning that any ground incursion would be “more dangerous and costly” for the United States
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s five-day pause on planned strikes is set to end later this week, keeping uncertainty high. Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iranian negotiators were “begging” for a deal and warned there may be “no turning back” if a diplomatic resolution is not reached.
Liquidity demand and higher rate expectations pressure Gold
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Gold has struggled to attract sustained demand, with the metal currently down over 15% from the March peak of $5,419, after briefly falling more than 20% from that high earlier this week.
Analysts suggest that traders are increasingly selling Gold to move into cash, primarily US Dollars (USD), to cover losses or margin calls in other assets amid heightened volatility across global markets. This shift toward liquidity is adding pressure on the precious metal.
At the same time, rising Oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, prompting expectations that central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer or even consider tightening if price pressure persists. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on Gold by reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates on hold through 2026, rather than earlier expectations for at least two cuts. This repricing has pushed US Treasury yields higher, further limiting upside in the yellow metal.
Looking ahead, traders will continue to monitor geopolitical developments for any signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. However, given the current backdrop, upside in Gold is likely to remain capped unless a clear breakthrough leads to lower Oil prices and eases expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates.
Technical analysis: Bearish bias persists below 100-day SMA
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD near-term bias remains bearish after facing rejection at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, following a rebound from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, which keeps the broader uptrend intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low 30s after slipping below this level on Monday, showing persistent bearish momentum with only tentative signs of stabilization. Average True Range (ATR) has picked up from earlier lows, indicating that the latest leg lower unfolds with expanding volatility, which reinforces the downside risk in the short term.
On the upside, a sustained move above the 100-day SMA near $4,622 could ease bearish pressure and allow XAU/USD to test the 50-day SMA around $4,964, ahead of the $5,000 psychological level. A break above $5,000 would signal a return to a bullish bias.
On the downside, immediate support lies at Tuesday’s low near $4,306, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,112.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CAD climbs to multi-week highs as Middle East tensions boost safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
- Iran rejects US proposal, raising risks of a prolonged conflict and broader economic spillovers.
- Elevated Oil prices complicate the Fed and BoC policy outlook as inflation risks persist.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stays on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as rising Middle East tensions and ongoing uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations keep the Greenback firmly supported across the board.
At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3848, marking its highest level since January 20 and building on gains for a fourth consecutive day.
Iran has rejected a proposed 15-point plan put forward by the United States aimed at ending the conflict, stating that any agreement would be on its own terms and only once its key conditions are met, including security guarantees and recognition of its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The pushback has raised concerns about a prolonged conflict, with Press TV citing the Iranian Army as warning that any ground incursion would be “more dangerous and costly” for the United States. The remarks come amid reports of additional US troop deployments to the region.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated that negotiations were ongoing despite Iran’s public denial. In a Truth Social post, he said Iranian negotiators were “begging” for a deal, while warning that time was running out for a diplomatic resolution, adding that there may be “no turning back.”
With both sides maintaining a hardline stance, a near-term resolution appears unlikely, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict and broader economic spillover effects.
Oil prices remain volatile and well above pre-conflict levels, raising inflation expectations and complicating the monetary policy path for both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC).
While both the United States and Canada are net Oil exporters and can benefit from higher prices, a sustained rise in Oil can also hurt demand. Higher energy costs reduce consumers' spending power and can slow economic growth.
Policymakers are closely tracking the situation and could be forced to raise rates if higher Oil prices lead to broader and more persistent inflation pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through 2026 at 3.50%-3.75%, although expectations for a hike gradually build, with the probability of a move to the 3.75%-4.00% range rising to around 40% by October.
Meanwhile, money markets have also shifted their expectations for the Bank of Canada, now pricing in around 75 basis points of rate hikes by year-end 2026, according to LSEG data cited in a Reuters report published earlier this month.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.13% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.17% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.18% | 0.39% | 0.37% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.18% | 0.22% | 0.21% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.34% | -0.38% | -0.39% | -0.22% | 0.00% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.49% | -0.34% | -0.39% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.00% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD holds near 1.3360 as Middle East tensions keep risk appetite fragile.
- Rising Oil prices lift the US Dollar, with WTI up over 2.7% and DXY near 99.77.
- US jobless claims matched forecasts, leaving geopolitics as the main market driver.
The GBP/USD pair consolidates around 1.3360 on Thursday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump exerts pressure on Iran to reach a deal. Solid US jobs data maintained the status quo, which remains controlled by geopolitics. At the time of writing, the pair remains virtually unchanged.
Sterling trades flat as geopolitics overshadow data, keeping the US Dollar underpinned
Risk appetite turned sour after the US President Donald Trump said Iran to “get serious soon” before it's too late, as he acknowledged that Iranian negotiators are “very different” and “strange.” He said that, privately, they're begging for a deal, while publicly they say they’re looking at the proposal.
Earlier, Axios reported that the US Pentagon is preparing for a “final blow” against Iran, which would include the use of ground forces.
In the meantime, the US Dollar remains bid due to its positive correlation with Oil prices, with WTI, the US Crude Oil benchmark, gaining over 2.70% to $93.85 per barrel. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.14% to 99.77.
Meanwhile, traders worried that the energy shock sparked by the Middle East conflict is pushing gasoline and gas prices higher and expect that major central banks will keep interest rates steady or raise them in the near term. This, along with the deceleration of economic activity, keeps the stagflationary scenario looming.
In the US, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21 came at 210K, as expected by analysts, up from the previous print of 205K. This reaffirms that the labor market remains solid and that the Fed could focus on the price stability mandate.
Ahead, eyes are on speeches by a handful of Federal Reserve officials, led by Governors Lisa Cook, Stephen Miran, Philip Jefferson and Michael Barr. Along with them, the Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will cross the wires.
In the UK, traders eye the release of the GfK Consumer Confidence for March, expected to deteriorate from -19 to -24.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3360. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3500 and continues to oscillate under the descending resistance trend line from 1.3869, indicating sellers remain in control on rallies. The rising support trend line from 1.3035 is losing immediate influence with price now pressed against its lower zone, suggesting downside pressure is challenging the broader uptrend structure.
Initial resistance aligns near 1.3430, where prior highs converge with the overhead moving average group, followed by the descending trend-line region around 1.3500, which caps the upside unless decisively broken. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent 1.3340 area, with a break exposing the mid-1.3200s, where prior lows cluster near 1.3220 as the next key level if bearish momentum extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
TD Securities expects UK Retail Sales for February to decline, projecting -0.6% month-on-month versus the market’s -0.7% and January’s 1.8%. They bank attributes the pullback to fading idiosyncratic supports and adverse weather weighing on physical store traffic. Despite weaker monthly data, TD Securities judges overall consumer momentum in the UK to remain positive.
UK retail sales seen softening in February
"We expect UK retail sales to come in at -0.6% m/m in February (mkt: -0.7; prior: 1.8%), undoing some of the gains from the previous two months as idiosyncratic factors lose some of their influence."
"Adverse weather likely reduced foot traffic in physical stores, also leading to lower sales throughout the month."
"However, while monthly figures would indicate some mean reversion, consumer momentum should stay positive now that uncertainty related to the November Budget has diminished."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that USD/CAD continues to grind higher as haven demand for the US Dollar dominates, with the pair trading well above an estimated fair value of 1.3543. Short-term technicals are bullish after a clean break above the 200-day moving average, with risks pointing toward the low 1.39s while support sits around 1.3790/00 and 1.3750/60.
CAD pressured as USD haven bid builds
"The CAD continues to drift lower as the dominant force of haven demand for the USD shapes overall FX trading. There is little the CAD can do to fight the trend, especially in an environment of low volume and low conviction trading."
"Fundamental factors have shifted a little against the CAD; front-end spreads have widened somewhat in the USD’s favour and Canadian terms of trade have softened modestly. But spot remains well above our estimated fair value of 1.3543 today."
"CAD losses have extended through the low 1.38 area (200-day MA at 1.3805 today) as the creeping USD bid persists. Trend momentum favours additional USD gains in the short-run, with the relatively easy advance through resistance in the mid-1.37s and (now) low 1.38s reflecting the firm USD undertone. Gains risk extending to the low 1.39s. Support is 1.3790/00 and 1.3750/60. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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