Forex News
Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor, said that it’s too early to have firm views about the impact the conflict in Iran will have onto the economy in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
Key takeaways
Too early to have firm views about impact on economy of conflict in Iran.
Evidence that oil prices feed into core inflation is quite limited.
This is different than Ukraine invasion in 2022, because monetary and fiscal policy were both more expansionary.
There is a 2-year trend of labor market weakening, and it is too early to reject that based on one or two months of data.
Markets dont seem concerned about long term inflation expectations.
1 pp of cuts appropriate this year.
If housing inflation decelerates as expected the Fed could undershoot the 2% target.
Appropriate to continue to cut at the March meeting; have not changed the outlook based on the outbreak of conflict in Iran.
Would like to continue with quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches neutral, then reevaluate.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.40% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.14% | -0.11% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.21% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.14% | -0.27% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.35% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.19% | -0.09% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.11% | -0.38% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.19% | 0.11% | -0.27% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.40% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.38% | 0.27% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.23% | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja and Shreyas Gopal warn that renewed energy price shocks are clouding the UK inflation outlook. They note that Oil and gas prices have surged, and that around half of the UK CPI basket is now highly energy‑intensive, especially services. This raises risks of more persistent inflation and could challenge Bank of England rate‑cut plans.
Energy intensity raises UK inflation risks
"Geopolitical tensions now dominate markets, with the war in the Middle East adding a thick layer of uncertainty for the UK's inflation outlook. Indeed, oil prices are up nearly 15% this week. And spot gas prices are up 70%. "
"On our trackers, if this persists, the once forgone conclusion that the UK would see the largest disinflation among any G7 economy could come to an abrupt halt. Pump prices are set to rise in the coming months. And households could see a big shock in dual fuel bills come July."
"For the Bank of England, with the 2022 energy shock still likely salient, fears of inflation persistence will likely increase should energy prices remain (or rally further) from current levels. Indeed, if held, such moves would disrupt the UK's disinflation track meaningfully and raise concerns of second-round effects next year, including sticky inflation expectations. This could buoy wage settlements in the coming year, putting in doubt both the pace and scale of rate cuts."
"Put simply, half of the CPI basket is highly sensitive to energy prices. Outside of fuels, oil and gas, these include items such as foods and services. Interestingly, services items have a higher intensity rating on average relative to core goods, with travel fares, restaurants, and accommodation all highly sensitive to energy prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF trades with a mild negative bias as the US Dollar eases after a two-day rally.
- SNB reiterates readiness to act against rapid Franc appreciation.
- Stronger-than-expected ADP employment data offers limited support to the Greenback.
USD/CHF trades under mild pressure on Wednesday after choppy two-way price action, as the US Dollar (USD) eases following a two-day rally while traders assess Swiss inflation data alongside intervention warnings from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.7800, retreating slightly after hitting a daily high around 0.7835 earlier in the European session.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) struggled to gain meaningful support from the latest inflation data, as rising concerns over excessive currency strength remain in focus. A stronger Franc lowers the domestic prices of imported goods while also dampening demand for Swiss exports, both of which tend to cool inflation.
Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% MoM in February, beating expectations of 0.5% and rebounding from the -0.1% decline recorded in January. On an annual basis, inflation held steady at 0.1%, above market expectations for a -0.1% reading.
The data support expectations that the SNB will keep policy accommodative, while reinforcing the view that the bar for returning to negative interest rates remains high.
SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin said on Wednesday, “Our willingness to intervene, our readiness to intervene is higher given the recent political events.” His remarks follow comments from the central bank earlier this week stating that it is “ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardize price stability in Switzerland.”
The renewed verbal intervention comes as the Swiss Franc strengthens on safe-haven demand amid the escalating US-Iran conflict. However, the US Dollar’s pullback on Wednesday limited further upside in the USD/CHF.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.81, easing after climbing to its highest level since November 28, 2025, near 99.68.
Meanwhile, upbeat US labor data offered little support to the US Dollar. ADP Employment Change showed private payrolls increased by 63K in February, up from 11K previously and above expectations of 50K.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Private sector employment in the US rose 63,000 in February and annual pay was up 4.5%, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 11,000 increase (revised from 22,000) recorded in January and beat the market expectation of 50,000.
Commenting on the survey's findings, "we've seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. "But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February,” Richardson added.
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) Index largely ignored this data and was last seen losing 0.3% on the day at 98.78.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.06% | -0.31% | -0.04% | -0.18% | -0.45% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | 0.15% | -0.07% | 0.18% | 0.04% | -0.23% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.23% | 0.02% | -0.11% | -0.39% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.27% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.18% | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.41% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.13% | 0.14% | -0.27% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.45% | 0.23% | 0.39% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.27% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | -0.09% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.09% | -0.05% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US ADP Employment Change data at 05:00 GMT.
- The US ADP Employment Change report is expected to show the private sector added 50K new positions in February.
- The Middle East war is likely to maintain the flows into safe-haven assets.
- The US Dollar Index added roughly 1.7% and nears the critical 100 threshold.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for February on Wednesday. The so-called ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that the United States (US) private sector added 50K new positions in the month, following the 22K gained in January.
As usual, the ADP report will precede the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. The latter offers a comprehensive view of the employment situation in the country, as it includes private and government jobs alongside the monthly Unemployment Rate, a critical figure for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which bases its decisions on both employment and inflation levels.
ADP Jobs Report to be overshadowed by geopolitical turmoil
There is no clear near-term correlation between the ADP Employment Change report and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, meaning a strong ADP does not guarantee a similarly upbeat NFP. Nevertheless, the figures tend to impact the US Dollar (USD), with better-than-anticipated figures generally boosting demand for the Greenback.
Ahead of the release, the USD is strengthening against all major rivals, but not because of the US economic performance, but because fears took over financial markets after the US and Iran launched a massive air strike on Iran last Saturday. Tehran retaliated, hitting US bases in different Gulf countries such as Dubai, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. As of today, the conflict continues to spread across the entire Persian Gulf.
The latest on the matter indicates that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have halted, further fueling price disruptions: Oil and gas prices are skyrocketing around the globe, while demand for safety is pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) up, roughly 1.7% higher since the week started.
In such a scenario, the US employment situation will likely be set aside as investors will be focused on war developments when looking for market direction. Nevertheless, every piece of data will be considered in the mid-term leading up to the next Fed monetary policy meeting scheduled for March 17-18. At the moment, the odds of an interest rate cut are quite low, particularly given stubborn inflationary pressures. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, came in at 2.9% YoY in December, while the core annual PCE hit 3%.
The February ADP report is expected to confirm that the labor market left behind the slow momentum from mid-2025 and is now much more stable. A stronger-than-anticipated report is likely to reinforce the positive view of the labor market, yet have no real impact on upcoming Fed monetary policy decisions. A weak report, on the other hand, can temporarily interrupt the USD rally, but as long as the war continues, demand for safety is likely to prevail
When will the ADP Report be released, and how could it affect the USD?
The US ADP Employment Change report will be out on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT, and it is expected to show that the private sector added 50K new jobs in February. As previously mentioned, the DXY is sharply up ahead of the announcement amid the Middle East crisis, boosting demand for safety.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Demand for the USD pushed the DXY to its highest since mid-January, when the index topped at 99.50. The bullish trend is clear on the daily chart, as the DXY has run beyond its 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both directionless and converging at the 98.40-98.60 price zone. The same chart shows technical indicators head firmly north, well into positive territory, without signs of upward exhaustion.”
Bednarik adds: “Beyond the aforementioned yearly high at 99.50, the index is likely to extend its run towards the 100.00 mark. Additional gains seem unlikely with just the ADP report, but steady gains above 100.00 should lead to a long-lasting USD bullish trend. Support comes at the 90.00 level, with approaches to the latest likely to attract buyers. An unlikely break below it should expose the mentioned 98.50 area, where the next line of buyers will appear.”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Dollar has rebounded sharply as Operation “Epic Fury” triggers a fresh energy price shock, pushing the Dollar index back toward the 96.000–100.00 range. The move is supported by negative terms of trade for Europe and Asia, reduced Fed rate‑cut expectations, and a squeeze in short‑USD positions, but MUFG still expects USD strength to fade from Q2 2026.
Energy shock lifts Dollar but temporarily
"The USD has staged a strong rebound at the start of this week, driven by heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The rally has already helped the dollar index fully reverse the losses recorded earlier this year, and it is now likely to test the upper end of the 96.000 to 100.00 trading range that has been in place since Q2 of last year."
"There are three main channels through which the USD stands to strengthen. First, economies in Asia and Europe will experience a larger negative terms of trade shock from higher energy prices than the United States."
"Secondly, higher energy prices are prompting US rate market participants to scale back expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year which is an assumption that had previously underpinned forecasts for USD weakness prior to Operation “Epic Fury.” This shift has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will leave rates on hold during the first half of the year."
"Thirdly, the USD could receive additional support from a shake‑out of crowded market positions. The latest IMM report shows that leveraged funds have been building up short USD positions since the start of this year, reaching their highest level since March 2022. These short positions are now being squeezed, reinforcing upward momentum in the USD."
"However, we expect the USD rebound to prove short‑lived. Our latest forecasts are based on the assumption that Operation “Epic Fury” lasts weeks rather than months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday offered a broad snapshot of the US administration’s thinking on the labour market, trade policy and energy security, as markets continue to navigate heightened geopolitical tensions and renewed volatility in oil prices.
Key takeaways
On the labour market, Scott Bessent struck an optimistic tone, saying he remains bullish on job creation this year. He emphasised that sustainable employment gains must come from the private sector, adding that the recent strength in temporary employment is often an early signal of broader hiring momentum.
On trade policy, Bessent indicated that tariffs could rise to around 15% sometime this week, though he suggested the move would likely be temporary. Rates are expected to revert to previous levels in roughly five months, while the administration conducts additional Section 301 and Section 232 reviews.
Energy markets were another focus. Bessent argued that crude markets remain well supplied, noting that significant volumes of oil remain outside the Gulf region. He added that the United States is coordinating with other countries and could take steps to ensure safe tanker passage if needed.
He also highlighted China’s vulnerability on the energy front, noting that the country’s reliance on imported crude leaves it exposed to potential disruptions in global supply chains.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that Eurozone composite PMI has risen to a three‑month high, extending private sector expansion, with Germany leading and France still in mild contraction. In the report, the ECB’s outlook is described as having swung from a marginal chance of a cut to a 50% chance of a hike in just two sessions, reshaping rate expectations and supporting the Euro.
Stronger data and hawkish repricing
"The Eurozone’s February composite PMI rose to 51.9 from 51.3 in January, marking a three-month high and extending the private sector expansion to 14 months, as stronger domestic demand lifted both manufacturing and services output."
"The services PMI increased to 51.9 from 51.6, a two-month high, with sales growth driven by domestic orders while export business continued to contract marginally."
"Among major economies, Germany led growth, Italy expanded at a faster pace, Spain slowed and France remained in contraction."
"The ECB’s outlook has now shifted from a marginal chance of a cut this year to a 50% chance of a hike in the space of two trading sessions; all associated EMEA central banks will also need to look at transmission mechanisms as well and keep potential policy gaps to a minimum."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Iranian intelligence operatives reportedly signalled openness to discussions with the US through an intermediary channel.
- Officials in Washington remain skeptical about the possibility of near-term negotiations.
- The report comes days after joint United States and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets.
Iran may have quietly explored the possibility of opening communication channels with the United States (US) despite the ongoing conflict, according to a report from the New York Times on Wednesday. The report states that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence indicated to the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Tehran could be open to discussions aimed at ending the war.
According to officials briefed on the matter, the message was delivered indirectly through the intelligence service of an unnamed country. Middle Eastern officials and representatives from a Western nation reportedly confirmed that the signal of openness was conveyed through this backchannel, although the details of the proposal remain unclear.
Despite the reported outreach, officials in Washington remain doubtful that either side is currently prepared to pursue serious negotiations. According to the New York Times, there is skepticism within the US administration regarding whether Tehran or the administration of US President Donald Trump is ready to consider a realistic diplomatic exit from the conflict in the near term.
Public statements from both sides appear to reinforce that skepticism. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations (UN) in Geneva said on Tuesday that negotiations with the United States were not currently being considered, following the recent military strikes conducted by the US and Israel against Iranian targets.
President Donald Trump also said on Tuesday that Iran had expressed interest in talks. Still, he argued that the opportunity had passed, indicating that US military operations against Iran would continue.
These conflicting signals highlight the uncertainty surrounding the possibility of diplomatic engagement as the conflict continues, with unofficial intelligence channels potentially remaining one of the few avenues for indirect communication between the two countries.
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