Forex News

• USD/CHF extends seven-day rally, but 0.8200 caps upside.
• Bullish RSI supports the trend, though a shooting star pattern warns of a correction.
• A break below 0.8124 exposes the 50-day SMA and 0.8052.

The USD/CHF pair extends its gains for the seventh straight trading session on Monday, up a minimal 0.05% after registering a six-week high of 0.8195, shy of cracking 0.8200, but ultimately poised to end the session at around 0.8169.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The overall trend is up, but a looming shooting star could trigger a short-term pullback in USD/CHF. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum and is trending higher. So even though the market structure could point lower, it could be a short-lived leg down before the uptrend resumes.

If bullish momentum resumes, USD/CHF may re-test the 0.8200 figure. A decisive breakout can drive spot prices past the yearly high of 0.8207, with June 19, 2025, seen as the next resistance area at 0.8215, ahead of the June 4, 2025, high at 0.8250. On further strength, the next level is 0.8300.

For a bearish reversal, the USD/CHF pair needs to drop below the September 11 swing low of 0.8124, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.8098. Once cleared, the next area of interest becomes the September 3 low of 0.8052.

USD/CHF Chart – Daily

• WTI Crude Oil spikes on a shut Saudi pipeline, unwinds on Truth Social, up 1.4%.
• Saudi Arabia pumped 6.238 million barrels a day in August, its lowest since 1990.
• Four ships exited Hormuz over the weekend, against about 100 a day before the war.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $98.00, about 1.4% higher on the day. It was more than 4% higher shortly after 12:30 GMT and had given nearly all of that back by 19:00. The gain priced a Saudi pipeline that was shut on Friday and photographed from orbit on Sunday with a burnt-out pumping station. The loss priced four posts on Truth Social between 15:05 and 16:31 GMT. The last of them said the price will drop like a rock once the war is over. The next half hour supplied the drop.

The world's largest exporter has run out of doors

Saudi Crude Oil leaves the country three ways, and all three had a bad week. Tankers can sail out through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran now requires permission. Four vessels exited that way over the weekend, against about 100 a day before the war began on February 28. Or the barrels cross the peninsula in the East-West pipeline, 7 million barrels a day of capacity, to Yanbu on the Red Sea. From Yanbu they sail south to Asia through Bab el-Mandeb or north to Europe through Suez.

The Houthis took the port of Mokha and Perim Island, in the middle of Bab el-Mandeb, on Thursday and Friday, and declared the strait open to every ship except a Saudi one. Drones from Iraq hit the pipeline's pumping stations on Thursday, the kingdom shut the line on Friday as a precaution, and the restart has no date. Saudi Arabia reported August production of 6.238 million barrels a day, its lowest since 1990, and shipping data put its exports near 3.2 million, the lowest since 2013.

Every Saudi barrel that cannot leave is a barrel an Asian refiner tries to buy on the Atlantic side, and the terminal with room to sell it is the US Gulf Coast. That is the buyer WTI met on the Sunday open. Yanbu learned over the summer to send its barrels north instead of south. As of Friday it receives none.

Four posts moved the price further than a shut pipeline

The sell-off came in four legs, and each began within minutes of a post. The first, at 15:05 GMT, said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to stop hitting each other's energy plants and blamed the world's diesel price on that war rather than this one. Ukraine's president answered an hour later that the halt depends on Russia stopping first. American diesel averaged a record $6.23 a gallon on Monday, and the Gulf exported about a quarter of its pre-war diesel in August. The fuel that decides how hard refineries run was the first thing sold.

The second post, at 15:32 GMT, said Iran wants a deal quickly and badly and that Washington will decide whether to engage. Iran's Revolutionary Guard had announced shortly before 11:00 GMT that it shot down an American drone over the strait. Iran's foreign minister said on Sunday that the strait stays shut until Washington honours a June memorandum that died before it expired in August. The regional meeting that was to draw a Hormuz corridor in Salalah on Monday was postponed on Sunday, at Riyadh's request by Tehran's account.

The third and fourth posts, at 16:25 and 16:31 GMT, said Crude Oil is flowing through Hormuz and that the price falls hard as soon as the conflict ends, which will not be long. On Sunday's version, delivered from a golf course in Ireland, the war ends right after the midterm elections. Not long is November 3.

Wednesday's inventory count and rate decision are three and a half hours apart

The American Petroleum Institute (API) publishes its inventory estimate at 20:30 GMT on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) its official count at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday. The strategic reserve held 285.4 million barrels in the week to September 4, the lowest since November 1982 and 130 million fewer than when the war began. That is the cushion under WTI, and it is 40% full.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the committee's own forecasts. Futures tied to the Fed's rate put a quarter-point increase to 3.75% to 4.00% at 93%, up from about 70% on Friday. It would be the first increase since 2023. A hike reaches Crude Oil through demand, by making the money that buys trucks, flights and factory hours dearer, and it is the slow brake. It is also the one item on this week's calendar with a published time and a probability, because nobody has offered the pipeline a restart date or the strait a reopening one.

The map into Wednesday

Resistance: The session high just above $100.50 is the third day in a row to trade above $100.00 and the second to be sold back beneath it inside the day, so $100.50 to $101.00 is the cap. Thursday's close was the first above $100.00 since May, and a daily close back above $101.00 reopens the May shelf just above $103.00.

Support: The session low just beneath $97.00 held the New York sell-off. Friday's low just beneath $95.50 is the level that carries the September advance from here, and Thursday's low just beneath $93.00 is the last one before the advance is gone.

Bias: Higher while Friday's low near $95.50 holds, with a daily close above $101.00 the first objective and $103.00 the second. Monday sold a rally of nearly $4.00 inside six hours and still holds above Friday's close. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, sits near 85 and is still rising, so the trend is intact and the room above it is thin. Invalidation is a daily close beneath $95.50, which would say the market sold the pipeline rather than bought it.

WTI spot daily chart

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 15:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) held firm at the start of the week, staying above the 99.00 mark and trading near 99.40, still short of the 100.00 threshold. The bid is coming from the Federal Reserve (Fed) as markets have moved to price in a near-certain rate move at this week's meeting, keeping the Greenback supported across the board heading into a data-heavy Tuesday.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to slip to 14.75 from 20.6, and will arrive along with the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, but the US Dollar's real focus is the Fed decision on Wednesday.

The pressure showed up most against the majors tied to risk and rates. Gold gave back ground, and the growth-sensitive currencies eased, while only the Pound managed to hold its own.

EUR/USD stayed on the back foot, drifting toward the mid-1.1500s as the Dollar firmed.

GBP/USD held up better than its peers, hovering around the 1.3510 mark ahead of the UK jobs report. The United Kingdom (UK) labor market report leads for GBP/USD, with average earnings including bonus seen easing to 3.9% from 4.1% and the ILO unemployment rate forecast to tick up to 5%. After that come Eurozone inflation confirmations out of France and Spain, then Germany's ZEW survey for EUR/USD, where economic sentiment is seen improving to 37 from 34.2.

USD/JPY pushed higher, reclaiming the 154.00 handle as the Yen slipped. Japan's August trade figures round things out for USD/JPY, with exports seen slowing to 18.2% YoY from 23.2%.

AUD/USD could not find support, easing back toward the 0.7150 region. Asia opens with China's August activity data: Industrial Production is seen picking up to 4.8% and Retail Sales to 0.8%.

Gold lost its grip, receding toward the $4,300 per troy ounce zone.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil extended its advance, pushing back above the $100.00 per barrel mark.

• XAG/USD falls as buyers fail to reclaim neckline resistance.
• RSI below neutral signals sellers retain short-term control.
• A break below $63.00 exposes the 50-day SMA and $60.00.

Silver (XAG/USD) price resumes its downtrend on Monday, keeping the head-and-shoulders pattern alive as the white metal struggles to clear the neckline in the $64.10-$64.20 range, increasing the chances of further losses. The XAG/USD pair trades at $63.60, down over 1.50%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The head-and-shoulders chart pattern remains in play, though bearish momentum remains contained as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is below its 50-neutral level, suggesting sellers are in control.

With that said, Silver’s first support is the $63.00 mark. A decisive breakout exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.59, followed by $62.00. On further weakness, the next stop is the $60.00 area, followed by the head-and-shoulders measure objective at $55.00.

On the other hand, to negate the head-and-shoulders pattern, buyers must push Silver past the right shoulder or the September 9 peak at $68.33. If cleared, a potential test of the $70.00 figure is on the cards.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold hits one-month low as 5% Treasury yields bite.
• Oil shock lifts Fed hike odds as WTI clears $100.
• Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions headline central-bank-heavy week.

Gold (XAU/USD) begins the week on the wrong foot, down some 0.85% on Monday after reaching a one-month low of $4,253, in a week that will feature the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,310.

XAU/USD drops near $4,300 as Dollar strength, Oil shock and global rate risks weigh

Broad US Dollar strength and elevated US Treasury yields, driven by surging energy prices, keep the non-yielding metal under pressure on Monday. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline triggered a preventive shutdown, shrinking Oil production by around 7 million barrels per day

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, rose above the $100 threshold and, at the time of writing, is posting gains of over 1.50%. Speculation that inflation could aim higher, following last week’s US PPI and CPI reports, pushed US Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year rising above 5% for the first time since 2023.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against the other six, is up 0.32% at 99.41.

Prime Terminal data shows that the odds of a quarter-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday are 93%. Also, a Reuters poll following the release of US inflation data revealed that the majority of the analysts foresee a rate increase by the US central bank and expect at least another increase by the end of March 2027

This week, it is a central bank bonanza. Besides the Federal Reserve’s decision, the Bank of England is projected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, even though the 6-3 vote split is expected to repeat for the third time. On Friday, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

This is another reason why Bullion prices are under downward pressure. Even though Gold is a great asset as an inflation hedge, rising global bond yields dent its appeal.

XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold tests two-month lows, hovers around $4,350

After falling to a five-week low, it seems that Gold is forming a hammer candle chart pattern after testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,271 and reclaiming the $4,300 figure. If XAU closes Monday’s session above the 100-day SMA of $4,351, it opens the door for further upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, indicating further downside. Hence, mixed signals between the RSI and price action can pave the way for some consolidation.

On the upside, the first resistance is the psychological $4,400. Breaking this point opens up psychological targets at $4,450 and $4,500, before reaching the 200-day SMA at $4,539.

On the downside, XAU/USD needs to drop below the 100-day SMA and break $4,300. Below that are September’s second low of $4,282, then the 50-day SMA at $4,271.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is firm at the start of FOMC week as swaps now price an 85% chance of tightening on Wednesday. They highlight that US Dollar Index (DXY) is fairly valued versus front-end spreads and argue further gains above 100 would require a significant move in yield differentials, which they doubt the Fed is ready to deliver.

Dollar firm into key FOMC

"The USD starts FOMC week on a firm note, reflecting the shift in expectations around the policy decision on Wednesday following last week’s US inflation data. Swaps reflect 21bps (or 85%) of tightening risk for Wednesday while the Bloomberg survey now shows only a very narrow majority of respondents favouring a hold."

"In recent years, swaps pricing which indicated 70% or higher risk of a Fed rate move has been a near perfect indicator of a policy move, so dollar gains in response to swaps pricing is understandable. There are still some risk around the outlook, however."

"An unchanged decision from the Fed would be a shock for markets and a clear negative for the USD. But a “dovish” hike which does not obviously commit to additional moves would also likely weigh on the USD."

"The DXY is about fairly priced for where front-end spreads are right now. Further DXY gains—holding above the 100 level—will need the support of a significant move in yield differentials and it’s not clear to us at this point that Fed is prepared to lift rates to that extent."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver a 25 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00%, its first move since July 2023, justified by above-target inflation and a solid labor market. Futures already price further tightening, so market focus will be on the vote split, projections and Chair Warsh’s guidance, with clearly defined hawkish and dovish scenarios for the US Dollar (USD).

Hawkish and dovish policy paths

"The FOMC is poised to deliver a 25bps hike to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday after five straight holds, marking its first hike since July 2023. Persistently above target US inflation and a stable labor market justify a rate increase."

"Fed funds futures price in roughly 90% odds of a hike this week. As such, the vote split, updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will guide the market reaction."

"The futures curve already implies almost 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months: 25bps this week, another 25bps hike by year-end, and nearly 50bps by September 2027. This creates an asymmetric risk for USD with limited gains from a hawkish outcome, but greater downside from a dovish surprise."

"Hawkish scenario: a unanimous or near unanimous vote for a hike, dots that align with markets, and/or Warsh signaling more tightening would lift USD."

"Dovish scenario: a split vote for a hike, dots below market pricing and/or Warsh framing the hike as insurance against inflation rather than the start of a sustained tightening cycle would weaken USD."

"In our view, the US economy does not warrant an aggressive tightening cycle. The slowdown in wage growth is disinflationary, and Fed policy is already somewhat restrictive against a nominal neutral rate of around 3.00%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CAD extends its advance as Fed rate hike bets lift the US Dollar to a nearly two-week high.
• The pair holds above the 200-day SMA but faces immediate resistance near the 100-day SMA.
• A potential double bottom near 1.3732-1.3759 suggests that the recent downtrend is losing momentum.

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as Fed rate hike expectations lift the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week high, while rising Oil prices provide little support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3898, remaining on the front foot for a fourth consecutive day.

Traders await the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. A hawkish outcome could further widen the interest rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC), which held its policy rate at 2.25% earlier this month, and support additional gains in USD/CAD.

Canada inflation steady as RBC sees BoC on hold until 2027

Economists at Royal Bank of Canada highlight that “Canadian inflation held at 3% year-over-year in August, unchanged from July,” with “underlying inflation pressures” described as having “remained comparatively contained.” In their view, the latest data “was broadly consistent with our base case that the BoC will hold interest rates through the remainder of 2026 before gradually raising rates in 2027 as the economy strengthens.”

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, USD/CAD has been trending lower since peaking near 1.4250 in late June, forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. However, the decline appears to have stalled after the pair bottomed at 1.3732 in August and found support again at 1.3759 earlier this month. The two lows point to a potential double-bottom formation, with the slightly higher September low suggesting that selling pressure is fading.

The pair is now holding above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3832, while the 100-day SMA at 1.3931 caps the immediate upside. Momentum signals are also improving, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 53 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding above zero, hinting that selling pressure is fading but not yet strong enough to clear the overhead supply.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near 1.3931, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.3963 and the 1.4000 psychological mark. A daily close above these levels would strengthen the double-bottom case and expose 1.4115, followed by 1.4225.

On the downside, the 200-day SMA near 1.3832 offers immediate support, ahead of 1.3759 and the August low at 1.3732. A break below this zone would invalidate the developing reversal pattern and revive the broader downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.*)

• The cross hit a two-week low and trades in the 0.8560 region.
• Germany ZEW economic sentiment survey is released on Tuesday.
• Tuesday's UK labor market report is the near-term catalyst, with the unemployment rate expected to rise.

EUR/GBP slides on Monday, trading around 0.8560 as the Euro (EUR) side of the cross is underpinned by a European Central Bank (ECB) that remains hawkish. The pair hit a two-week low of 0.8554 earlier in the day before the Pound (GBP) gained some ground. ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke in Vienna, but her remarks focused on Europe's dependence on imported artificial intelligence rather than monetary policy, so they carried no signal for rates.

Over the weekend she said the energy shock looks "longer-lasting", with Euro area inflation at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. In a speech on Monday, she turned to a longer-term theme, warning that Europe risks being cut off from artificial intelligence.

The near-term catalyst is the United Kingdom (UK) labor market report due Tuesday. The set is expected to soften. Average earnings, including bonuses, are seen easing to 3.9% from 4.1%, the ILO Unemployment Rate is forecast to tick up to 5% from 4.9%, and the Claimant Count Change is seen swinging back to a rise after the prior fall. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey lands the same day and is the Euro's main test of the week.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8560, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8580 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8575. The pair is also capped by nearby horizontal barriers at 0.8562 and 0.8565, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping toward the 30 area around 30.15 hints at waning momentum that could allow further downside before any meaningful recovery attempt.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned at 0.8556 and 0.8555, forming a tight floor that buyers may attempt to defend. On the topside, a first recovery hurdle appears at 0.8562, followed by 0.8565, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.8575 and the 20-period SMA at 0.8580, and only a sustained break above this clustered resistance zone would ease the current bearish pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)