Forex News
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping Brent elevated and supporting a firm Dollar, but sees the worst of the energy shock as past. With United States (US) yields grinding higher, BBH expects interest rate differentials to keep US Dollar Index (DXY) confined within its established 96.00–100.00 range in coming weeks.
DXY seen anchored in broad range
"The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz still has no clear endgame. Brent crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day, trading above $107 a barrel, the highest level since April 7 but below the March triple top of around $120 a barrel. Global bond yields keep grinding higher as firmer crude oil prices push up central bank rate expectations. USD is mixed near yesterday’s high."
"The energy shock persists, but the worst is likely in the rearview. First, the US extended the ceasefire indefinitely. Second, the US “Open for All or Closed to All” approach to navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to accelerate a reopening of that crucial waterway because shared economic pain raises the incentives for all parties to reach a workable diplomatic off-ramp."
"Interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies should continue to keep the DXY (USD index) anchored within its nearly one-year 96.00-100.00 range. The final April print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is due today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD bounces back to near 1.3490 as the three-day US Dollar rally hits a pause.
- The US Dollar remains broadly firm amid elevated oil prices.
- Investors await the Fed and the BoE monetary policy announcements next week.
The GBP/USD pair recovers its early losses and turns positive around 1.3490 during the European trading session on Friday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects after a three-day winning streak. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.70.
The US Dollar comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) markets opening; however, the broader outlook of the currency remains firm as oil prices remain higher amid fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Meanwhile, investors await monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which will be announced next week. Both the Fed and the BoE are expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and would warn of upside inflation risks amid Middle East conflicts.
Earlier in the day, the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March came in stronger than expected. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, arrived at 0.7% Month-on-Month (MoM) against 0.2% estimates. In February, the consumer spending measure declined by -0.6%, revised lower from -0.4%.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3490 at the press time, keeping a constructive near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3449 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3432 of the 1.3161–1.3870 leg.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.2 stays above the neutral 50 line, hinting that bullish momentum remains in place while prices edge closer to the 50% retracement barrier.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3515, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.3599, with further hurdles at 1.3718 and 1.3870. Looking down, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3449, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.3432; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at 1.3328 and the 1.3161 swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Apr 24, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.7%
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: -0.4%
Source: Office for National Statistics
TD Securities analysts expect Canadian Retail Sales to rise 0.7% month-on-month in February versus the market’s 0.9% consensus. They see stronger auto sales and higher gasoline prices underpinning the headline and ex-autos measures. Despite weaker hours worked in trade services, they judge household goods consumption to be on track for a sharp rebound in Q1.
Canada Retail Sales support Canadian Dollar
"We look for retail sales to rise by 0.7% m/m in February (mkt 0.9%) to build on their solid performance last month, with stronger auto sales helping to underpin the headline print."
"New vehicle sales remain well below Q3 levels but have made back some of that weakness over Jan/Feb, while higher gasoline prices should provide the key driver behind a 0.4% m/m increase in the ex-autos measure (mkt 0.8%)."
"Trade services were not the only weak spot in the February jobs report, but hours worked across the industry still fell by 1.5% m/m."
"The contribution from higher gasoline prices should contribute to a more modest increase on a volumes basis, which would still leave household goods consumption on track for a sharp rebound in Q1."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7130 after dropping from weekly highs at 0.7185.
- Growing geopolitical tensions have been buoying the safe-haven USD this week.
- FX analysts at UOB expect the pair to oscillate between 0.7080 and 0.7180 in the coming weeks.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) posts marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains near 10-day lows of 0.7110, with upside attempts capped below 0.7135 so far. A stronger US Dollar amid fading hopes of an imminent peace deal in Iran is keeping speculative traders away from the Aussie.
Risk-sensitive assets like AUD are on their back foot on Friday, as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US President Trump urged Tehran to sign a peace deal, while Israel said that it is waiting for a “US green light” to restart its attacks on Iran.
Tehran, on the other hand, has threatened with an “eye for an eye” warning that they will target oilfields in Gulf countries allied with the US, if Iranian energy sites are attacked.
In this context, all eyes will be on the conference by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, who are expected to explain the Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Friday at 08:00 ET (12:00 GMT).
From a wider perspective, the AUD/USD pair keeps trading in a range after rejection at the 0.7220 area in mid-April. FX analysts at UOB expect this trend to extend over the next few weeks: “In our most recent narrative from Monday (20 Apr, spot at 0.7130), we highlighted that the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.7060 and 0.7210. Since then, AUD has traded in a relatively quiet manner. We continue to expect range trading, but a narrower range of 0.7080/0.7180 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now."
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) Peter Kazimir highlights the need for a slight interest rate increase during European trading hours on Friday, Bloomberg reported. Kazimir warned that the Iran war could still significantly slow global growth.
Market reaction
EUR/USD trades 0.1% higher to near 1.1700 during the European trade on Friday; however, the impact appears to have stemmed from a slight correction in the US Dollar (USD).
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- The US Dollar Index is steady near 99.00, on track for a 0.4% weekly gain.
- Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have pushed Investors back to the US Dollar.
- Later on Friday, US Defense Secretary Hegseth will hold a conference about Iran's war.
The US Dollar (USD) remains strong against its main peers on Friday, with the USD Index (DXY) steady at the upper range of the 98.00s, as investors are reluctant to take excessive risks. The DXY is on track for a 0.4% weekly gain as tensions between the US and Iran escalate.
US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire this week, but that did not help to calm the waters, as Iran maintained the Strait of Hormuz closed for the eighth week, while the US military kept the blockade of Iran’s ports. Meanwhile, the peace talks remain in a deadlock with no date for a new round of conversations, which were expected to resume this week.
On Thursday, Trump said on social media that the clock is ticking for Iran to seal a peace agreement, while Israel threatened to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty and bring Iran to the Stone Age as soon as the US gives the “green light.”
Tehran’s Deputy President, Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani, on the other hand, has warned of an “eye for an eye” to the US, threatening to attack oil facilities of Gulf countries, if the US targets Iranian energy sites.
In this backdrop, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, have announced a press conference at 08:00 AM ET (12:00 GMT), to inform about the Operation Epic Fury against Iran.
On the macroeconomic front, US data has been Dollar supportive this week. The preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for April confirmed a solid economic activity, despite Iran’s war. Jobless claims rose moderately but still at levels consistent with a steady labour market.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- The Indian Rupee weakens further against the US Dollar amid higher oil prices.
- The selling pressure from FIIs in the Indian stock market has increased.
- Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady next week.
The Indian Rupee (INR) slides further against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, extending its losing streak for the fifth trading day. The USD/INR pair trades firmly near the weekly high of 94.38 as the Indian currency continues to underperform in the wake of higher energy prices and the resumption of significant foreign selling in the Indian stock market.
In addition to the above-mentioned headwinds for the Indian Rupee, the upbeat US Dollar is also supporting the USD/INR pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the 10-day high of around 99.00.
Oil prices remain elevated amid fears of prolonged Hormuz closure
Higher oil prices amid the suspension of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, by Iran as part of retaliation against the United States (US), have undermined the Indian Rupee.
During the press time, the WTI Oil price holds onto weekly gains at around $95.00. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, underperform in a high oil price environment.
Investors doubt that the Hormuz will open soon, as Iran has not yet agreed to resume peace talks with the US, blaming Washington for the continuous blockade of Iranian sea ports.
Meanwhile, a report from CNN has shown that US military officials are developing new plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz in the event the current ceasefire with Iran fails.
FIIs resume offloading stake in Indian stock market
So far this week, FIIs have remained net sellers in all four trading days and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 8,311.99 crore. Foreign investors have resumed selling after a brief pause in the last three trading days of the previous week. Elevated oil prices have dimmed the interest of overseas investors in the Indian stock market amid concerns over India Inc.'s forward earnings and the expectations that the government would trim its capital expenditure to offset obligations towards rising energy prices.
Fed's policy comes into focus
Going forward, the major trigger for global markets will be the monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and warn of upside inflation risks in the wake of higher energy prices. Investors will pay close attention to cues regarding whether the Fed plans to hike interest rates anytime this year.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR extends winning streak
USD/INR trades higher above 94.20 at the press time, holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains firmly above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.35. The positioning over this short-term trend line suggests buyers retain control, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 59 shows positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that the advance could extend as long as the pair defends its underlying supports.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at 93.35, which underpins the current structure and is likely to attract dip buyers on shallow pullbacks. A daily close below this dynamic floor would weaken the immediate bullish tone and expose deeper retracements, whereas holding above it keeps the door open for further gains toward the all-time high at around 95.20.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY has pushed up to 159.84, validating earlier expectations for a retest of 159.65. While upward momentum is slowing, they still look for the pair to edge higher within a 159.40–160.05 intraday band. Over the next few weeks, decreasing volatility suggests a broader 159.00–160.50 range will likely contain moves.
Dollar-Yen stays bid but capped
"24-HOUR VIEW: On Tuesday, we indicated that “there is scope for USD to retest the 159.65 level”. USD subsequently traded within a range of 159.08/159.57. Yesterday, when USD was at 159.45, we highlighted the following: “There has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and there is still scope for USD to test 159.65. A break above this level is not ruled out, but any further advance is unlikely to reach 159.85. Support levels are at 159.30 and 159.10.” Our assessments turned out to be correct, even though USD rose to within one pip of 159.85 (high was 159.84). Although upward momentum is starting to slow, there is no sign of a pullback. Today, we expect USD to edge higher, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 159.40/160.05. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 160.05."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We indicated on Monday (20 Apr, spot at 159.10) that after the recent choppy price action, “we are not able to derive much from the volatile price action.” We also indicated that “for the time being, USD could trade between 157.55 and 160.50.” We continue to expect USD to trade in a range, but the decreasing volatility suggests a range of 159.00/160.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/JPY trades around 186.70 with a modest gain at the end of the week.
- Markets expect major central banks to hold rates steady while highlighting persistent inflation risks.
- Middle East tensions and uncertainty around Japanese policy shape Yen dynamics.
EUR/JPY trades around 186.70 on Friday, posting a modest 0.06% gain as investors remain cautious ahead of a week marked by monetary policy decisions from several major central banks. The pair is supported by a broadly resilient Euro (EUR), while facing mixed flows on the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Market expectations indicate that interest rates will remain unchanged from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB), with guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach. However, the recent rise in energy prices, driven by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is fueling upside inflation risks, potentially complicating any near-term easing outlook.
Within the ECB, some policymakers remain cautious but open to further tightening if needed. Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus stated that a rate hike this year cannot be ruled out, while dismissing the possibility of a hike at the April 30 meeting. This stance provides support to the Euro, despite weakening economic indicators.
Indeed, the latest data from Germany highlight a sharper-than-expected deterioration in business sentiment. The IFO Business Climate Index declined to 84.4 in April, below expectations, indicating a worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone’s largest economy and limiting the Euro’s upside potential.
In Japan, the Japanese Yen remains influenced by conflicting factors. On one hand, speculation about potential intervention and comments from the Finance Ministry offer some support to the currency. On the other hand, economic concerns tied to rising energy prices and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz weigh on confidence.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its upcoming meeting, while leaving the door open to future tightening. Recent inflation data show moderate progress, with headline inflation at 1.5% YoY and core measures still below the 2% target, justifying a cautious stance.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected at 11:00 GMT to say that Simkus dismissed the possibility of a hike at the April 30 meeting, and not a cut.)
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