Forex News
- The Indian Rupee trades calmly near 94.35 against the US Dollar ahead of US-Iran talks and NFP data.
- Iran stresses the recognition of its authority near the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Fed is expected to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) after a long weekend on Monday. The USD/INR pair wobbles around 94.35 as investors await the outcome of talks between the United States (US) and Iran, scheduled on Tuesday in Oman, regarding peace near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.
US-Iran agree on a ceasefire after trading attacks over weekend
The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend renewed fears of a global energy supply disruption again. Comments from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled that Tehran’s attacks were meant to demonstrate its intentions to have authority over the Hormuz.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said that responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz lies solely with Tehran and warned that any attempt to bypass its preferred route in the waterway will cause “tension and escalation”. However, both nations later agreed on a ceasefire and scheduled talks regarding the same in Oman for Tuesday.
Market participants worry that signs of renewed conflicts between the two nations could lift oil prices again, which have returned close to their pre-war levels, a scenario that diminishes the appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
US Dollar consolidates at start of US NFP week
The US Dollar Index, which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades calmly near 101.30. Investors seem to have sidelined, awaiting a slew of US data, especially the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data for fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The impact of the official employment data will be significant as comments from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in his monetary policy conference this month signaled that forward-looking statements from the central bank would be restricted in the current policy conjuncture.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are almost 90%.
This week, investors will also focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the ADP Employment Change data for June, and the JOLTS Job Openings data for May.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key support around 94.00
USD/INR trades flat at around 94.38, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.80 and under the broader downward resistance trend line of the Descending Triangle formation starting near 97.10.
The pair has been sliding off recent highs and now trades closer to its rising support line from 94.1051, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 44 suggests waning bullish momentum and leaves the door open for further downside pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at 94.80, with a subsequent barrier coming from the longer-term descending trend line near 97.10. On the downside, the immediate focus is on the horizontal support line drawn from 94.10, with the current price area around 94.38 acting as a pivotal zone where a sustained break lower would reinforce the bearish bias and expose deeper losses in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that a stronger Dollar and lower Oil have led markets to outprice most rate hikes in Poland and the Czech Republic, adding pressure on regional FX. With Polish inflation expected to fall to 2.9% and Turkey’s annual inflation seen easing to 31.9%, he anticipates rates on hold in Poland and EUR/PLN capped near 4.300 despite potential tests of 4.290.
Regional currencies face renewed headwinds
"Last week in the CEE region was marked by oil relief and a stronger US dollar. The result is an outpricing of most rate hikes in Poland and the Czech Republic, but also some pressure on weaker FX."
"This week, attention will be on Tuesday's inflation figures in Poland for June. We saw a significant downward surprise in May, mainly due to food prices, and our economists now expect a decrease from 3.1% to 2.9% largely as a result of lower fuel prices."
"This should confirm that National Bank of Poland rates will remain unchanged this year."
"On Friday, Turkey will publish June inflation. We expect monthly inflation to moderate further to 0.8%, resuming a downtrend in the annual figure to 31.9% from 32.6% a month ago."
"Weekend headlines from the Middle East suggest a mixed opening, which, together with a stronger US dollar, suggests further pressure on CEE currencies. EUR/PLN could test 4.290 again for further upside, but we believe 4.300 should be sufficient resistance for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD attempts to regain the 1.1400 line after bouncing at 1.1320 lows.
- Uncertainty about the status of the Strait of Hormuz is putting the ceasefire into question and weighing on risk appetite.
- The pair is in a corrective recovery, likely to meet significant resistance in the 1.1500 area.
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday but is struggling to confirm a move above 1.1400, with the 13-month low in the 1.1320 area still within relatively close reach. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire and investors’ caution ahead of a series of US inflation figures are keeping Euro recovery attempts limited so far.
Latest reports affirm that the US and Iran have agreed to stop the hostilities that shook the fragile ceasefire this weekend, but the status of the peace negotiations remains unclear. Iranian authorities announced talks with Oman to manage the key Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy has raised the threat level in the waterway to “significantly high”, which is keeping investors on edge.
çIn the economic calendar, the highlight today will be the speech of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde at the opening of the central bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal. Traders, however, are likely to keep a wait-and-see stance, awaiting the release of a batch of US employment figures, to shed further light on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Corrective recovery for the Euro
EUR/USD trades at 1.1400, on a corrective rebound from 13-month lows, at 1.1320, with the broader bearish trend intact. Momentum indicators are bouncing up from oversold levels as the Relative Strength Index (14) reaches the mid-50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns positive.
The pair, however, remains contained below a previous support, in the area of 1.1430, which is closing the path towards the 1.1500 region (June 8, 11 lows), and a strong resistance area between 1.1620 and 1.1660, which capped bulls several times in May and June.
On the downside, initial support is at the mentioned 13-month lows near 1.1320. Further down, bears might be tempted to revisit the late May 2025 lows, at .1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.13% | 0.08% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.01% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.28% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.11% | -0.11% | 0.10% | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.11% | 0.12% | 0.02% | -0.14% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.28% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.14% | 0.08% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1434 before retreating, leaving intraday momentum subdued and the pair expected to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1410. The earlier downside move is now seen as stabilised, with the Euro likely to oscillate in a wider 1.1335–1.1470 band, while longer-term focus remains on key supports.
Weakness stabilises into broad range
"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR consolidated as we expected last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday that “the price action still appears to be part of a consolidation phase, but the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1345/1.1395 today.” Instead of consolidating, EUR popped to a high of 1.1434 before retreating quickly. EUR closed slightly higher at 1.1383 (+0.12%). The brief advance did not lead to any increase in upward momentum, and EUR is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.1360 and 1.1410."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR more than a week ago. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 1.1355), we highlighted that the steep decline “appears to be overstretched.” We also highlighted that EUR “must close below 1.1325 before a move to 1.1280 can be expected.” On Friday, EUR broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.1420, printing a high of 1.1434. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ indicates that the weakness in EUR has stabilised. From here, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1335 and 1.1470."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Deutsche Bank Research points to a busy week for Japan, with strong May retail sales already released and industrial production data due. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Tankan survey on Wednesday is expected to show broadly steady sentiment, which the bank says could support the case for further gradual policy tightening, with implications for Japanese Yen and local markets.
Retail strength and Tankan outlook
"In Japan, today’s retail sales (out earlier) is followed by industrial production tomorrow, where our economists expect a +1.4% month-on-month increase."
"The highlight, however, will be the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday, which is expected to show broadly steady sentiment and may reinforce the case for further gradual policy tightening."
"In Japan, early data showed retail sales rose 5.3% YoY in May, well above expectations of 3.0% and up from April’s downwardly revised 2.8%."
"Asian equity markets are mixed this morning. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing some support, though fresh regional trade frictions are weighing on sentiment after China imposed tighter export controls on 20 Japanese entities, requiring government approval for shipments."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.18 per troy ounce, down 1.63% from the $59.14 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 18.16% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 58.18 |
1 Gram | 1.87 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.64 on Monday, up from 69.15 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
