Forex News
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid describes a mixed picture for US equities. The S&P 500 index slipped 0.22% as chip stocks sold off sharply, yet the equal‑weighted S&P 500 rose 0.24% to a new record. Futures on the S&P 500 are modestly positive, and individual names like Meta rallied strongly on cloud infrastructure plans, highlighting rotation beneath headline weakness.
Semiconductor drag but breadth improves
"Those glimmers of positivity have been reflected overnight, where both US and European equity futures have stabilised. For instance, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.09%) and the DAX (+0.27%) are both in positive territory. And even though many indices in Asia have lost ground this morning, they’ve recovered from their lows earlier in the session. "
"Indeed, the Nikkei is down -1.61%, but it had been down -2.55% in the first hour of trading. Similarly, the CSI 300 is down -1.85%, but had been down -2.45% earlier on. And several indices are still higher, including the Hang Seng (+1.19%), and Japan’s TOPIX index (+0.63%)."
"When it came to equities, the dovish momentum was countered by a fresh selloff in chip stocks, which saw the Philly semiconductor index fall -6.27%. So that dragged down US equities more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.22%) pulling back after gains on Monday and Tuesday. "
"Nevertheless, there were still broader gains, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.24%) hit a new record. Moreover, there was a big jump for Meta (+8.81%), which was the third-strongest performer in the S&P 500 yesterday, after Bloomberg reported they were developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business. However, European equities struggled in the meantime, with the STOXX 600 (-0.38%) pulling back as well."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- US Dollar Index drifts lower to around 101.20 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The DXY keeps the positive outlook in the near term, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 101.80; the first downside target to watch is 101.05.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 101.20 in the early European trading hours on Thursday. The DXY declines as markets turn cautious ahead of the key US employment report for June, which will be the highlight later on Thursday.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show 110,000 job additions in June, and the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3% during the same period. If the report shows a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could undermine the US Dollar against its rivals.
That being said, "If the payrolls data exceed market expectations, the dollar could accelerate higher on a rebound," said Mitsubishi UFJ Bank senior analyst Akihiko Yokoo in a note.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of Dollar Index Spot is bullish as price holds above the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests firm but not yet extreme positive momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the June 24 high of 101.80, en route to the 20-day Bollinger upper band near 102.00, where upside attempts could start to face profit-taking. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June 30 low of 101.05. The next contention level to watch is the Bollinger middle band at 100.65, followed by the lower band at 99.25 and the 100-day moving average at 99.20, with a deeper pullback toward this cluster likely needed to weaken the current bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
MUFG strategist Michael Wan argues Japanese rates "clearly have to head higher" after a positive Tankan survey, strong capital investment appetite and rising inflation expectations. He expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates sooner rather than later, sees a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) via higher USD/JPY as a near-term release valve, and warns of elevated intervention risks around upcoming US data and holidays.
BoJ hikes and MoF intervention watch
"The one place where rates clearly have to head higher is in Japan. Yesterday’s Tankan survey was overall positive even as the survey responses were provided before the announcement of the US-Iran agreement. For one, appetite for capital investment by large enterprises remains strong. Second, the outlook for selling prices and inflation expectations rose further."
"While we think the BoJ should be raising rates and likely sooner rather than later, a key question by markets is to what extent the government will push back against that, and with that the release valve in the near-term will likely have to be a weaker exchange rate in higher USD/JPY."
"We would be quite wary in the near-term though of intervention risks, given the bias for Japanese authorities to intervene during periods of low liquidity and also if US data is supportive of the directional bias for Japan’s Ministry of Finance."
"With the upcoming NFP numbers, coupled with key US holidays, we could have a risk of intervention over the coming week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD remains sideways for over a week around 1.4200.
- The US NFP data will likely pave the way for a direction for the Loonie pair.
- Fed’s Warsh warned of upside inflation risks.
The USD/CAD pair trades flat around 1.4210 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair has remained sideways for over a week, with investors seeking fresh cues regarding the United States (US) interest rate outlook. For the same, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
According to estimates, the US economy created 110K fresh jobs, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate is seen remaining steady at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to arrive at 3.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), higher from 3.4% in May, with monthly figures rising steadily by 0.3%.
Assuming that wage growth drives the US core inflation significantly, investors will pay close attention to the data to get cues regarding the price rise outlook.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh warned at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra that inflation remains “too high”, while stressing the need to bring price stability.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices due to progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran, held in Doha on Wednesday, have diminished the appeal of currencies from economies, such as Canada, which are net oil exporters.
Technical Analysis:
USD/CAD trades flat at around 1.4200, while holding a clear bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4103.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 77.7 signals overbought conditions that could temper immediate upside without yet undermining the broader constructive tone.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 1.4103, where buyers are likely to defend the prevailing uptrend on any pullback. Looking up, the pair could extend its advance towards the 1 April 2025 high at 1.4415 if it breaks the ongoing consolidation inside the 1.4169-1.4248 upwards.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 02, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 172K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur sees only a 50% market-implied probability for another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike this year and disagrees with that pricing. He points to fading energy-related upside risks and emerging downside risks from falling real estate prices, arguing that inflation would need to rise significantly for the RBA to tighten again, which he does not expect.
Housing and inflation temper RBA
"The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not holding a monetary policy meeting this month. The next meeting will not take place until August. As a result, the data currently being released is of only secondary importance for the Australian dollar—and interest rate expectations regarding the RBA also appear to have changed very little in recent days."
"The market still expects another interest rate hike this year with a probability of around 50%. We continue to believe that this will not happen."
"Regarding risks, the discussion primarily centers on an ongoing conflict in Iran and the associated high fossil fuel prices. However, the price of oil has only continued to fall since the last meeting. So this risk no longer exists for the moment."
"According to Cotality, nationwide real estate prices fell by 0.4% in June compared to the previous month - the sharpest decline in three years. For the second quarter, this would amount to a 0.7% decline compared to the previous quarter. In Sydney and Melbourne, prices actually fell by more than 1% each in June compared to the previous month. The trend thus suggests that prices are not only continuing to fall - the decline appears to be accelerating."
"On the other hand, the downside risks mentioned refers to a possible significant decline in real estate prices and alludes to our second point. Such a decline could have a negative impact on consumer spending and thus weigh on the economy. And the latest data suggest that something could be developing in this regard. "
"The risk profile therefore seems to be shifting. In our view, inflation would have to rise significantly for the RBA to raise interest rates again this year. And as mentioned, we do not expect this to happen."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-over-year (YoY) in June, compared to a rise of 0.6% in May, the latest data published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday. The market consensus was for 0.5% growth in the reported period.
The monthly Consumer Price Index came in at 0% in June, compared to the previous reading of a 0.2% rise, below the expectation of a 0.1% increase.
The Swiss CPI inflation report has little to no impact to the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the USD/CHF pair is trading 0.08% lower on the day to trade at 0.8088.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.23% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.23% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.17% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
What do Switzerland’ CPI inflation data mean for the Swiss Franc?
Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services which are representative of the private households’ consumption in Switzerland. This report is one of the most important economic indicators for the Swiss Franc as it measures inflation and heavily influences the monetary policy decisions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Hotter-than-expected CPI Inflation signals stronger inflationary pressures in the Swiss economy, which generally supports the CHF by reducing the likelihood of SNB rate cuts and encouraging a more hawkish policy outlook. On the other hand, softer-than-expected CPI Inflation indicates easing price pressures, increasing expectations for monetary easing.
The SNB is highly sensitive to deflation risks as well as excessive currency strength. Inflation report often influences expectations about whether the Swiss central bank will intervene in currency markets or adjust interest rates.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF keeps constructive outlook above the key 100-day MA
In the daily chart, USD/CHF maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 20-period Bollinger middle band and well clear of the 100-day moving average (MA). The pair is pressing higher within the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.8 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, which suggests ongoing constructive momentum rather than exhaustion.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 0.8035, ahead of a broader demand area defined by the lower Bollinger band near 0.7908 and the 100-day MA at 0.7880. On the topside, the next key resistance is the 20-period Bollinger upper band, currently around 0.8160, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend, while a failure to clear it could trigger consolidation back toward the 0.8030 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the change in prices of goods and services which are representative of the private households’ consumption in Switzerland. The CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jun 04, 2026 06:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.6%
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 0.6%
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
- WTI Oil extends its decline below $68.00 as markets remain confident of a negotiated end to the US-Iran war.
- Qatari mediators have reported advances in the US-Iran talks held in Doha this week.
- The OPEC+ is planning to increase supply by 188K barrels per day in August, according to Reuters.
Crude Oil prices extended their decline on Thursday, as Qatari mediators reported “positive progress” on the indirect talks between the US and Iran held in Doha on Tuesday. The barrel of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has dropped below the $68.00 level, trading at $67.80 at the time of writing, its lowest price since the war started in February.
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson posted on the X social media network that the rival countries made advances on issues related to the memorandum that put an end to the hostilities in June and were “building on the outcomes” of a summit in Switzerland.
The advances in the peace talks remain unclear
US President Donald Trump has echoed these comments, adding that the talks delivered some progress on the possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program and that the “denuclearization of the country is moving along well”. US Vice President JD Vance, on the other hand, said that the nuclear matter will be addressed at a later time.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, affirmed that the parties agreed to establish a "communication channel” to report breaches in the memorandum of understanding.
The status of the key Strait of Hormuz, however, remains in the air. Traffic through the corridor has increased significantly, contributing to fuel investors’ optimism, but it remains a fraction of the 160 ships that used to cross the waterway before the conflict started.
Beyond that, Reuters has reported that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, the so-called OPEC+, are planning to boost their supply quotas by 188K barrels per day in August, which is contributing to push Crude prices lower.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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