Forex News
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold remains under pressure as markets price a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) path and renewed energy strength. They highlight that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short covering only begins above $4,222/oz, with more substantial net long positioning closer to $4,300/oz. However, they expect multiple dissents and ongoing hike pricing to limit Gold’s ability to reach these CTA trigger levels.
Fed pricing restrains gold CTA flows
"Precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed, and renewed energy upside will continue to feed into this narrative."
"Gold markets are already well-priced for a hawkish Fed path, and while we are not expecting a hike today, the bar may be high to shift the underlying forward expectations for the yellow metal."
"CTAs need prices above $4,222/oz to catalyze only very minimal short covering, but beyond this level, pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions."
"However, we expect multiple dissents to a hold decision, and markets continuing to price for hikes in September and beyond, which would likely see any gold upside fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."
"War risk is back on, but we are not expecting any material CTA flows across the energy complex. Elsewhere, precious metals will be focused on the Fed, but the bar will be high to shift the underlying bearish forces in the gold market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report European natural gas prices have bounced higher as Middle East tensions disrupt Qatari LNG exports. They flag QatarEnergy’s extended force majeure, reduced EU LNG imports and below-average storage levels. With heatwaves complicating injections, they expect tighter-than-usual storage at the start of winter and elevated gas prices with potential spikes through the heating season.
European gas storage lags seasonal norms
"European natural gas prices have also bounced higher this morning, following the renewed tensions in the Middle East. The European gas market is looking increasingly vulnerable as we head into the winter."
"QatarEnergy has reportedly extended its force majeure for buyers in Asia and Europe to as far as the end of September. There have also been reports of QatarEnergy looking to subcharter an LNG carrier until the end of October, given the ongoing disruptions to Qatari LNG exports."
"EU LNG imports are on track to fall a little more than 25% YoY in July, which is making the job of refilling storage more difficult. EU gas storage is 56% full at the moment, below the 10-year seasonal average of 72%. Heatwaves across Europe will only add to the difficulty in filling up storage ahead of the winter."
"Tighter-than-usual storage at the start of the heating season suggests that gas prices will remain elevated through the winter, with the risk of spikes higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Michael Pfister of Commerzbank argues that subdued imported inflation and low exchange rate pass-through give the Swiss National Bank (SNB) little reason to tighten policy. Despite a recent uptick in prices, he expects inflation to rise only slightly, if at all, and reiterates a forecast that SNB interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2027, supporting a persistent rate differential versus the Euro area.
Low pass-through underpins steady SNB stance
"Although inflation has increased again in Switzerland in recent months, the rise has been smaller than expected. Our analysis suggests one possible reason for this: the exchange rate effect is smaller than is often assumed."
"We therefore stand by our forecast that inflation is likely to increase only slightly, if at all."
"Relatively subdued inflationary pressure is one of the main reasons for our long-standing forecast that the SNB will leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2027."
"As our model suggests that imported inflationary pressure is moderate, the interest rate differential between the euro area and Switzerland is likely to persist for some time."
"EUR/CHF should benefit from this in the medium term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
UOB’s SGD NEER model shows the index at 1.68% above the midpoint of the policy band, after ending the previous session 171 basis points above it. The model is expected to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the midpoint today, implying a USD/SGD trading range of 1.2898–1.2963. With the S$NEER near the upper end of the policy band and MAS maintaining a mildly restrictive stance, the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive SGD strength may increase.
SGD NEER guides intraday band
"Meanwhile, the S$NEER index in our model fell by more than 10 bps, ending the session 171 bps above the midpoint of the policy band."
"This morning, our SGD NEER model is at 1.68% from the mid-point and it is likely to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the mid-point for today's session."
"This implies a USD/SGD range of between 1.2898 and 1.2963."
"With the S$NEER trading closer to the upper end of the policy band and the MAS policy stance likely remaining mildly restrictive following the cumulative tightening moves in Apr 2026 and Jul 2026 (current estimated slope: 1.25% p.a.), the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive S$NEER strength could rise, thereby helping to keep domestic liquidity conditions relatively ample."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Donald Trump says the United States will strike Iran again in response to attacks on US targets in Jordan.
- The US president also says he will let Iran "keep talking" while still vowing military action.
- The comments come after multiple ballistic missiles targeting US forces in the Middle East were intercepted.
According to Reuters, United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a phone interview with Fox News on Wednesday that the US would carry out further strikes against Iran in response to attacks targeting US positions in Jordan. He also said he would "let them keep talking," suggesting that ongoing discussions would not prevent military action.
The interview was not broadcast, but a Fox News reporter summarized Trump's remarks. The comments mark a further escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran as geopolitical tensions remain elevated across the Middle East.
Market reaction
Investors continue to monitor developments closely, as any further military escalation between the United States and Iran could fuel risk aversion across financial markets and boost demand for safe-haven assets.
The US Dollar (USD) reacted with modest gains following Trump's comments, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.04% on the day to trade around 101.45 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Oil prices move sharply higher, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surging 6.4% to $83.40 per barrel as investors price in the risk of further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.45% | 0.18% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.39% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.40% | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.39% | -0.40% | -0.52% | -0.53% | -0.29% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.19% | -0.22% | 0.29% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.40% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Canadian Dollar gains modestly as surging Oil prices offer support.
- A stronger US Dollar and diverging Fed-BoC expectations limit the Loonie’s upside.
- USD/CAD consolidates below the 21-day SMA as traders await the Fed decision.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) modestly outperforms the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, drawing support from a rebound in Oil prices as the war in the Middle East intensifies again following a brief calm. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4093, trapped within a week-old range.
US President Donald Trump threatened heavy military action against Iran on Wednesday following attacks on US targets in Jordan.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $83, up more than 5% on the day. Higher Oil prices typically support the Canadian Dollar due to Canada’s position as a major crude exporter.
However, elevated Oil prices provide only limited support to the Loonie as a broadly stronger US Dollar remains the main driver of the pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, rebounding from an intraday low of 101.24.
Diverging monetary policy expectations add another headwind for the Canadian currency, with traders seeing a greater chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates than the Bank of Canada (BoC) in response to energy-driven inflation risks.
The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it announces its policy decision at 18:00 GMT. Still, a rate hike cannot be ruled out, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 31% probability of a 25-basis-point increase.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds a modestly bullish near-term bias as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at roughly 1.4045 and 1.3893, respectively.
The pair is still capped by the 21-day SMA around 1.4123 overhead, suggesting a consolidative tone rather than a clean breakout, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative but has been edging higher, hinting that downside momentum is fading.
On the topside, a sustained move above the 21-day SMA at 1.4123 would open the way for further gains, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure. On the downside, initial support is seen near the immediate price pivot around 1.4090/1.4094, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.4045. A deeper pullback would look to the horizontal support zone near 1.4000, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3893 acting as a more distant structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
BNY reports that renewed Iranian–U.S. hostilities lifted Brent above 3%, reviving the inflation channel but remaining secondary to Fed and AI valuation drivers. The bank notes the U.S. interception of Iranian missiles and retaliatory strikes, but argues these Oil price moves are unlikely to materially affect today’s Fed decision, keeping focus on policy and risk assets.
Geopolitical flare-up lifts Brent prices
"The brief pause in hostilities has ended. Iran launched missiles toward U.S. forces in Jordan, while U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Brent rose more than 3%, reviving the inflation channel."
"The move is unhelpful but remains secondary for sentiment: the dominant drivers are now the Fed, AI valuations, and positioning rather than geopolitics alone."
"The U.S. said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile attack on military bases in the Middle East, ending a brief lull and heightening the risk of renewed escalation. Oil prices have reacted, but we don’t see the moves materially affecting today’s Fed decision."
"U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple missiles from Iran in a surprise attack, all of which were intercepted, while U.S. and Saudi forces also struck Iran-backed militants in Iraq after 30 drone attacks in the prior 72 hours."
"Iran’s state media said the IRGC fired missiles at a U.S. airbase and command center in response to U.S. actions. President Trump said diplomacy with Tehran may still progress, but reiterated threats of force."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has hired active domestic bond managers for the first time in five years to improve expertise and diversification amid volatile JGB markets. The fund’s domestic bond portfolio has suffered losses despite strong overall returns. Officials are urging more domestic investment, which Yu argues should, over time, provide support for the Japanese Yen (JPY).
GPIF active shift seen Yen supportive
"Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) hired active domestic bond funds for the first time in five years, appointing three firms in May – Asset Management One, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management – to manage Japanese bonds."
"The move aims to improve expertise amid heightened volatility in Japan’s debt market; GPIF is seeking benchmark-beating returns and better diversification of risk assets."
"GPIF’s domestic bond portfolio has been under pressure from falling bond prices and market swings, losing 5.1% in the year ended March 31, even as total assets returned 16.5%."
"The decision comes as investors face inflation, higher government spending, and a BOJ tightening cycle viewed by some as too slow."
"Officials have also urged GPIF to invest more in domestic assets, which in time will support the JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that speculative net long positions in LME Copper increased notably in the latest COTR data, supported by tight supply and low inventories. They note broader sentiment has improved, while positioning changes in Aluminium and Zinc were more modest, with only small increases in net long exposure among money managers.
LME positioning reflects tighter fundamentals
"The latest COTR report shows that the speculative net long position in LME copper increased by 12,668 lots to 60,771 lots in the week ending 24 July."
"The move was driven by increased participation from both long and short positions."
"Positioning changes in other base metals were more modest, with money managers increasing their net long in LME aluminium by just 96 lots to 59,264 lots, while the net long in zinc increased by 4,107 lots to 39,736 lots."
"Tight supply conditions and low inventories lifted broader market sentiment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Oil price recovers strongly to near $83.20 on Wednesday due to multiple tailwinds.
- Houthis mull fees on ships using the Southern Red Sea route.
- US-Saudi joint military operation against Iran-aligned Houthis helped Oil prices snap a three-day losing streak.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX trades 6% higher on the day, slightly above $83.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Oil price bounces back strongly after snapping a three-day losing streak amid fears of a prolonged energy supply squeeze due to Iran’s intentions to bring a toll system into effect at various chokepoints around the Middle East.
During the day, a report from Reuters showed that Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the Southern Red Sea. Houthis are mulling a toll system on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, gateway to almost 7% of the global oil supply, which was hijacked by them last week.
With Iran being prevented from imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of the global energy supply, by the United States (US) and other Middle East nations, Houthis' move to implement a toll system on another key shipping route could result in a fresh escalation in military aggression between both nations. Such a scenario would increase fears of prolonged energy supply disruption.
The Oil price was already opened significantly higher as the joint military operation by Saudi Arabia and US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Iran-aligned Houthis in Iraq in retaliation for attacks on Saudi energy facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions, Al Jazeera reported.
Analysts at Rabobank said in a note, "The Saudi-US retaliation for strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure underscored how the evolving cycle of attacks and counterattacks is keeping a firm bid under crude benchmarks."
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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