Forex News
United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly expands at a faster pace to 52.0 in April, according to flash estimates, due to a significant growth in both manufacturing and the services sector activity. Economists expected the overall business activity to have dropped to 49.8 from the previous reading of 50.3.
The Manufacturing PMI arrives at 53.6, while it was expected to come in lower at 49.9 from 51.0 in March. The Services PMI jumps to 52.0 vs. 50.0 estimate and the previous reading of 50.5.
"The UK economy has gathered some renewed momentum in April after the initial impact of the war in the Middle East caused growth to stall in March, but the upturn comes with a catch. The improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from a rush to secure purchases ahead of feared price rises and supply shortages linked to the war," Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Market reaction
The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts significant bids against its peers after the UK's preliminary PMI data release. As of writing, GBP/USD turns flat around 1.3500 after recovering early losses.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.13% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.12% | 0.02% | 0.20% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.23% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.01% | 0.12% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.32% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.19% | 0.17% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.12% | -0.32% | -0.17% | -0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
(This section below was published at 06:47 GMT as a preview of the flash UK PMI data for April)
The UK Services PMI Overview
The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April to be released by the S&P Global on Thursday, later in the day at 08:30 GMT.
S&P Global Services PMI is expected to come in at 50.0 in April, inching down from 50.5 recorded in the previous month.
How could it affect GBP/USD?
GBP/USD may remain subdued as the S&P Global Services PMI is expected to decline in April, along with Composite and Manufacturing PMIs. The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles amid persistent risk aversion linked to Middle East concerns. Traders will shift their focus toward the UK Retail Sales data due on Friday.
The GBP/USD pair also declines as the US Dollar gains ground amid rising energy prices, which have intensified inflation concerns and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. A recent Reuters survey of economists showed that 56 out of 103 respondents expect the Fed to keep its policy rate within the current 3.5%–3.75% range at least through September.
Technically, the GBP/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it stays marginally above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and comfortably over the 50-period EMA. The initial barrier lies at the two-month high of 1.3599, recorded on April 17. On the downside, the pair is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3492, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3427.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CHF appreciates for the third day in a row and reaches one-week highs above 0.7840.
- Market concerns about the US-Iran standoff are supporting the safe-haven USD.
- The pair is attempting to consolidate above the neckline of a double botttom figure.
The US Dollar (USD) trades higher for the third consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, as the lack of progress in the US-Iran peace process dampens investors’ appetite for risk. The US Dollar is hovering above last week’s trading range at 0.7840, although upside attempts are limited below 0.7860 for now.
The Middle East conflict keeps driving markets, and the US-Iran standoff is keeping investors on edge, providing moderate support to the safe-haven US Dollar. Iranian forces have seized at least two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the US military redirected three Iranian vessels in the Indian Ocean in a tit-for-tat dynamic that is adding pressure on an already fragile ceasefire.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF near-term trend remains bearish, but recent price action hints at a potential bullish correction. The pair has pierced the neckline of a double bottom pattern at the 0.7840 area, and technical indicators show growing bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 4-hour chart is hovering just below 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps crawling above the zero level. So far, however, these figures hint at an easing downside pressure, rather than a clear bullish reversal.
On the topside, the pair might find resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April decline, near 0.7870. Further up, a key resistance area lies at the confluence of the downtrend resistance line and April 8 and 13 highs, around 0.7930.
A pullback below the April 16 and 19 highs at 0.7840, on the contrary, would ease the incipient bullish momentum and bring the April 17 and 20 lows at 0.7775 back into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.10% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.13% | 0.16% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.11% | -0.00% | 0.13% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Market
- Dow Jones futures fall as stalled US–Iran talks weigh on risk sentiment.
- Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at fresh record highs on Wednesday’s regular session.
- IBM beats earnings per share, while Tesla meets expectations.
Dow Jones futures fall 0.54% to near 49,400, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also declining 0.39% and 0.36% below 7,150 and 27,000, respectively, during the European hours on Thursday, ahead of the United States (US) regular opening.
US index futures retreated as stalled US–Iran peace efforts weighed on risk sentiment. Reports said Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, escorting two into Iranian waters on Wednesday, marking a further escalation, though the White House said the seizures did not breach ceasefire terms.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator, stated that reopening the strait would be “impossible” while the United States (US) and Israel persist with what he described as “flagrant” ceasefire violations, including the US naval blockade. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a renewed peace proposal from Tehran.
In regular US trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones rose 0.69%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.05% and 1.64%, respectively, both closing at fresh record highs. Market sentiment was buoyed by a strong earnings season, with AI-linked companies advancing as a risk-on shift lifted speculative sectors, and chipmakers such as Broadcom, AMD, and Micron posting notable gains.
On the corporate front, IBM reported earnings per share of $1.91, surpassing expectations of $1.87. Boeing climbed 5% after reporting a slower cash burn. Apple added 2.3%, while Tesla posted earnings per share of $0.41, in line with forecasts.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlights that stronger United States (US) equities and higher Oil prices are creating an unusual risk mix that is keeping US Dollar (USD) weakness contained. The strategist notes that US tech leadership is reinforcing the Dollar’s return advantage. While a softer Dollar later in 2026 is seen as plausible, resilient US growth is expected to cap any sharp USD decline.
US returns anchor Dollar performance
"Oil prices pushed higher, with Brent breaking above USD100/bbl, as attacks on commercial shipping and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept diplomacy at an impasse. Mediators are attempting to arrange a US–Iran meeting on Friday, but Iranian officials have signalled talks will not begin until the US lifts the blockade."
"US equities rallied to fresh all-time highs, led by strong tech outperformance. The rebound in global risk appetite has helped unwind the safe haven USD’s March rally. Nonetheless, sustained US equity outperformance through earnings season could still provide near-term support for the USD."
"While recent developments reinforce concerns around erratic US policymaking, we are less convinced by calls for an imminent, accelerating USD sell-off. A softer dollar later this year remains plausible if the US–Iran conflict continues to de-escalate. Even so, resilient US economic performance should limit the scope for any sharp USD decline."
"Overnight price action deviated from the usual geopolitical pattern of higher oil and weaker equities. This unusual mix of firmer oil and stronger risk sentiment supported pro-cyclical, energy-exporting currencies such as the AUD and NOK against the USD. By contrast, weaker euro area consumer confidence—likely reflecting energy shock concerns—and downgraded German growth forecasts weighed on the oil-importing EUR."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects EUR/USD to remain in sideways trading as multiple uncertainties limit conviction in either direction for the Dollar. She highlights the Middle East war, the unclear path for the next Fed Chair and policy, and possible delays to Warsh’s confirmation. Overall, she sees a slight bias toward a stronger US Dollar in coming days.
Dollar rangebound with slight upside bias
"At the moment, there are simply too many unanswered questions to provide a compelling reason to push the dollar significantly in one direction or the other. I fear this will remain the case in the coming days, with sideways trading prevailing in EUR/USD."
"Since there are no signs of a renewed escalation that could drive the dollar much higher, but also no foreseeable end to the conflict - which in turn could lead to dollar selling - a “wait-and-see” approach makes sense for the market."
"Given all these uncertainties and unanswered questions, the safest option for now is to trade sideways and wait for the next developments. I see a slight bias toward a stronger US dollar as long as no new talks between the US and Iran are scheduled, since uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict has increased somewhat again."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Eurozone's preliminary HCOB Composite PMI unexpectedly declines in April to 48.6. Economists expected the overall business activity to have grown at a moderate pace to 50.2 from 50.7 in March.
The Services PMI contracts at a faster pace to 47.4 vs. 49.8 estimates. In March, the Services PMI arrived at 50.2. Surprisingly, the Manufacturing PMI expanded at a faster pace to 52.2. The data was expected to come in lower at 50.8 from the previous reading of 51.6.
"The Eurozone is facing deepening economic woes from the war in the Middle East, presenting a major headache for policymakers. The conflict has pushed the economy into decline in April, while driving inflation sharply higher. Increasingly widespread supply shortages, meanwhile threaten to dampen growth further while adding more upward pressure to prices in the coming weeks. The war is currently hitting the service sector hardest, where business activity is falling at a rate not seen since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021," Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
Market reaction
EUR/USD remains almost steady after the Eurozone PMI data release at around 1.1700 as of writing.
(This section below was added at 07:32 GMT after the release of the German HCOB PMI data for April)
German flash Composite PMI unexpectedly declines in April. According to flash estimates, the Composite PMI contracts to 48.3, while it was expected to expand again, but at a moderate pace to 51.1 from 51.9 in March.
The overall business activity declined as the service sector activity surprisingly contracted. The Services PMI arrives at 46.9 lower than estimates of 50.3 and the previous reading of 50.9. The Manufacturing PMI expands again, but at a moderate pace to 51.2 vs. 51.3 estimates and the prior release of 52.2.
"The recovery in the German economy has been stopped in its tracks by the war in the Middle East. A ten-month sequence of growth came to an end in April as business activity contracted against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and sharply rising prices," Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Market reaction
No immediate impact on the Euro (EUR) after the German PMI data release. As of writing, EUR/USD trades marginally lower to near 1.1700.
(This section below was published at 05:40 GMT as a preview of the German/Eurozone HCOB PMI data for April)
German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview
The preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April is due for release today at 07:30 and 08:00 GMT, respectively.
Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.
The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to have expanded again, but at a moderate pace due to a slowdown in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The Composite PMI is seen arriving lower at 51.1 from 51.9 in March.
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to have fallen to 51.3 from the previous reading of 52.2. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is estimated to have dropped to 50.3 from the prior release of 50.9.
The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI for April also shows that the overall private sector output expanded at a moderate pace. Eurozone’s manufacturing output growth slowed down, and the services sector activity contracted. A figure below the 50.0 threshold is considered a contraction in the economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates, the Eurozone Composite PMI drops to 50.2 from 50.7 in March. The Manufacturing PMI is seen arriving lower at 50.8 from the prior release of 51.6. The Services PMI is expected to have contracted to 49.8 after slowing down to 50.2 in March.
How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is marginally down to near 1.1700 during the early European trade on Thursday. The pair has corrected to near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1691, but sits north of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1666 of the 1.1408–1.2082 swing, suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls into the 40.00-60.00 zone after failing to hold above the 60.00 level, indicating balanced momentum with an upside bias.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745; a daily close above this barrier would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.1825, followed by 1.1938 and the cycle high region near 1.2082. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1691, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1666; a deeper setback would bring the 23.6% level at 1.1567 into view, with more important structural support down at the 1.1408 swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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