Forex News
MUFG’s Michael Wan points to the People’s Bank of China’s new overnight liquidity tool, implicitly set at 1.25%, as a step in refining China’s interest rate framework. He argues that the 7‑day reverse repo rate remains the main policy instrument for now, with the overnight rate used for fine‑tuning, and expects a gradual shift toward the overnight rate as the medium‑term policy anchor.
Overnight rate seen as future anchor
"The other key focus of markets in our region was the implicit rate setting of PBOC’s new overnight liquidity tool."
"This came in at 1.25% according to news reports, although the coupon rate was not explicitly announced by the central bank, with PBOC only saying that it conducted 300 billion yuan (US$44bn) of overnight reverse repurchase agreements in OMOs yesterday."
"While this follow PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng’s remarks at the recent Lujiazui Forum on further refining China’s interest rate framework, we still think the 7-day reverse repo rate remains the primary tool for now with the overnight rate serving as a supplementary liquidity fine-tuning instrument."
"Over the medium-term, the PBOC will likely shift towards the overnight rate as the policy anchor but this will take some time."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng upgrades Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outlook, noting that Singapore’s economy has remained resilient to renewed geopolitical shocks from the Middle East conflict. DBS now projects real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, supported by strong first-half performance, reduced stagflationary risks from US-Iran de-escalation, and ongoing momentum in AI, financial services and construction.
DBS lifts medium-term growth forecasts
"Singapore’s economy has weathered resiliently the renewed geopolitical shocks stemming from the war in the Middle East since its onset in late February."
"Economic growth likely ended 1H26 in solid shape, providing positive carryover effects into 2H26."
"We raise our real GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 4.3% and 3.0%, respectively (from 2.8% and 2.3%)."
"As we enter 2H26, the managed de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, initiated by an interim peace deal, reduces the risks of escalating input cost pressures, persistent severe supply chain disruptions, and significantly weakened external demand in the coming months."
"We are dialling up our growth profile over the next few quarters, although this will be tempered by high base effects."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Christopher Wong at OCBC notes USD/THB’s recent rebound is running into interim resistance around 33.40 after a sharp move higher. Bank of Thailand officials attribute THB weakness mainly to broad USD strength and Thai equity outflows, while signalling readiness to manage excessive FX moves. Softer Oil may slow USD/THB upside, but THB recovery could stay shallow unless USD momentum fades and Gold prices stabilise.
Interim resistance caps rebound
"USD/THB’s rebound is showing signs of running into interim resistance around the 33.40 levels, after a sharp move higher last week."
"BoT officials recently attributed THB weakness mainly to broad USD strength and Thai equity outflows, while also signalling readiness to manage excessive FX moves."
"Overall, softer oil can help slow USD/THB upside, but THB recovery may remain shallow unless USD momentum fades, oil stay contained portfolio outflows and gold prices stabilise."
"Support at 33.20, 33 levels. Resistance at 33.41 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2025 high to 2026 low)."
"USD/THB last seen at 33.28 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart remains intact though RSI shows signs of easing from overbought conditions. Retracement lower not ruled out."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver consolidates below $60 as bearish structure remains intact.
- RSI nears oversold territory, signaling sellers retain momentum.
- Break below $56.61 exposes YTD low and $55.00 support.
Silver price advances by over 1.50% on Tuesday, even as US Treasury yields rise and the US Dollar remains firm. Concerns about a fragile truce deal between the US and Iran keep the XAG/USD trading at $58.73, above its opening price.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver remains consolidated below $60.00, unable to clear either the $60.00 level or the year-to-date (YTD) low of $55.63.
Momentum remains bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the RSI about to turn oversold.
For a bearish continuation, XAG/USD must clear the day’s low of $56.61. Below this, the YTD low is next at $55.63, followed by $55.00. A decisive break will expose the November 13 daily high-turned-support at $54.39, ahead of a tumble to $50.00 per troy ounce.
On the other hand, for a bullish reversal, buyers must surpass the March 23 swing low-turned-resistance at $61.01. Once hurdled, traders must push XAG/USD towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69.72 ahead of the $70.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/CNH remains confined to a tight range, with the Dollar expected to trade between 6.7940 and 6.8080 in the near term. He maintains a positive USD view over the 1–3 week horizon, as long as strong support at 6.7900 holds, and sees tentative upward momentum over 1–3 months, contingent on a break above the 21‑week EMA.
Dollar holds range with upside risk
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following last Friday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum,” and we expected USD to “trade between 6.7950 and 6.8100.” USD subsequently traded within a range of 6.7934/6.8073, closing littlechanged at 6.8003 (-0.06%). We continue to expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 6.7940 and 6.8080."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a positive USD view since the middle of the month. Yesterday (29 Jun, spot at 6.8030), we pointed out that “while upward momentum has since eased, as long as the ‘strong support’ at 6.7900 (no change in level) is not breached, there is still a chance for USD to head toward 6.8300.” There is no change in our view. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, July 1:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded on a neutral stance near the 101.20 level on Tuesday as investors digested mixed United States (US) data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation remains too high and that further rate hikes may be needed if price pressure persists.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.41% | -0.07% | -0.48% | -0.51% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.35% | -0.15% | -0.53% | -0.56% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.37% | -0.12% | -0.49% | -0.52% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.35% | -0.37% | -0.48% | -0.90% | -0.89% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.48% | -0.43% | -0.42% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.90% | 0.43% | 0.00% | 0.61% | |
| NZD | 0.51% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 0.89% | 0.42% | -0.00% | 0.59% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.07% | -0.09% | 0.30% | -0.18% | -0.61% | -0.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell to the 1.1420 level as investors assessed softer German inflation and stronger retail sales data. Germany’s preliminary headline inflation eased to 2.4% in June from 2.7% in May, reducing immediate pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB), while German Retail Sales rose unexpectedly by 1.1% MoM in May after falling -0.4% a month earlier.
GBP/USD was flat near 1.3255, failing to find direction after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said policymakers are in no rush to change interest rates. Bailey noted that United Kingdom (UK) inflation could still rise toward 3.2% later this year but added that tighter financial conditions give the BoE time to evaluate the pass-through of higher energy prices before deciding whether another rate hike is needed.
USD/JPY crossed a four-decade high near the 162.60 mark, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) remaining under pressure despite ongoing concerns about possible intervention from Japanese authorities.
AUD/USD traded higher near 0.6920 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) found support from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and stronger Chinese activity data. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2, supporting sentiment around Australia’s China-linked economy.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remained under pressure near the $70.10 per barrel as investors focused on easing supply risks and hopes that US-Iran talks could help stabilize the energy market. Reuters reported that Brent and WTI were on track for their steepest monthly and quarterly losses since 2020 as improved tanker movement and ceasefire hopes reduced fears of a prolonged supply shock.
Gold stayed muted near the $4,020 price region as a firmer Greenback and renewed Fed rate-hike expectations limited demand for the non-yielding metal.
- Gold rebounds from daily lows and remains near $4,000.
- Fed hike bets and rising yields pressure non-yielding Bullion.
- US ADP and NFP data could reshape the Fed’s September tightening odds.
Gold (XAU/USD) price posts modest gains of 0.35% on Tuesday, set to end the month with losses of over 11% after retreating from monthly highs around $4,500 towards $4,000, weighed by overall US Dollar strength. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,026 after hitting an eight-month low of $3,942 earlier in the day.
XAU/USD steadies as Dollar strength keeps monthly losses intact
The US-Iran war was the main reason behind Gold’s collapse in June, propelling Oil prices higher and underpinning the US Dollar. Although they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the conflict and Oil prices have eased, the yellow metal failed to gain traction amid expectations that major central banks could raise interest rates.
Bullion prices tend to fare well amid low-interest-rate environments. Speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could hike rates boosted the Greenback and pushed US Treasury yields higher.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up 0.07% at 101.17. The US 10-year Treasury yield surges 3.5 basis points, up to 4.412%.
Money markets have priced in 35 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening by December 2026, though it’s not expected to change policy in July, according to Prime Terminal data.
Over the weekend, hostilities between Washington and Tehran tested the fragility of the MOU. However, both parties halted attacks as US President Donald Trump's envoys flew to Doha to resume talks.
In the meantime, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was hawkish, insisting that inflation is too high and that, if consumer data holds up, monetary policy is not restrictive enough. She added that the Fed “may need to consider rate hikes."
Data from the US showed that JOLTS unexpectedly increased in May, indicating rising vacancies but weak hiring, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings rose by 7.594 million, beating forecasts of 7.3 million and April's revised 7.585 million.
The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved in June as the truce deal between the US and Iran drove gasoline prices lower.
Ahead, traders are eyeing the ADP National Employment Change data on Wednesday, before the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday, amid a shortened week due to US holidays.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend intact, eyes on $3,500
From a technical perspective, Gold is neutral to downward-biased, as it has registered a successive series of lower highs and lower lows. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bearish, though it signals that selling pressure has eased in the short term, as the slope points up.
For a bullish reversal, Gold must clear $4,100. A breach of the latter will expose the June 22 daily high at $4,220, followed by a down-slope resistance trendline at around the $4,280-$4,300 area. If those levels are taken, the next stop would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,439.
Downwards, the first support would be the day’s low of $3,941. Once surpassed, $3,900 is up next, followed by the October 28, 2025, swing low of $3,886. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be $3,500, April 22, 2025, daily high turned support.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CHF retraces from YTD high, but bullish structure remains intact.
- RSI holds above 50, signaling bulls remain firmly in control.
- Break above 0.8100 exposes 0.8139 and 0.8171 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair holds firm around 0.8070 on Tuesday, after losing 0.29% on Monday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness amid month-end flows and improving risk appetite.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The uptrend paused as USD/CHF retraced from a year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.8139, opening the door for a 70-pip drop. However, buyers had stepped in, signaling that bullish momentum hasn’t faded.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above its 50-neutral level and closing in on overbought territory. This means that bulls are in charge.
For a bullish continuation, USD/CHF must climb above 0.8100 and clear the YTD high. Above this area is August 1, 2025, with a daily high of 0.8171, followed by the June 19, 2025, high of 0.8215. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the June 4 high at 0.8250.
Downwards, the first support would be the March 31 high-turned support at 0.8042, followed by the June 11 high at 0.8013. Below, the next area of interest would be 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.41% | -0.04% | -0.48% | -0.53% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.37% | -0.11% | -0.50% | -0.56% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.37% | -0.08% | -0.50% | -0.56% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.41% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.88% | -0.90% | -0.31% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.44% | -0.45% | -0.46% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.88% | 0.45% | -0.02% | 0.58% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.56% | 0.56% | 0.90% | 0.46% | 0.02% | 0.59% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.31% | -0.13% | -0.58% | -0.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- New Zealand Dollar edges higher as ANZ Business Confidence hits a four-month high.
- NZD/USD recovery faces resistance near 0.5700 as the broader downtrend remains intact.
- RSI recovers from oversold territory while the MACD points to easing bearish momentum.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, supported by upbeat New Zealand business confidence data and a modest pullback in the Greenback. At the time of writing, NZD/USD trades around 0.5677, up 0.5% on the day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.23 after hitting an intraday high of 101.43 and remains on track for a second consecutive monthly gain.
ANZ Business Confidence surged to 36.6 in June from 10.0 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since February.
Despite the intraday uptick, NZD/USD remains on track to close the month in negative territory, with losses of around 5.20%. The downside came as the US Dollar strengthened across the board amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.
Meanwhile, the lack of progress toward a final US-Iran deal keeps geopolitical risks alive, supporting safe-haven demand for the US Dollar while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi.
Traders now turn their attention to this week's US labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports, which could shape Fed interest rate expectations and drive the next move in NZD/USD.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5824 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5862.
The pair is pressing against nearby overhead resistance at 0.5700, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.5 is recovering from oversold territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative with fading red histogram bars, which together hint that downside pressure persists even as selling momentum shows signs of moderating.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier of 0.5700, followed by 0.5770, before the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.5824 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5862 reinforce a broader caps zone.
On the downside, the next notable support comes at 0.5600, where a break would likely extend the current bearish phase, while holding above this floor would keep the pair consolidating beneath the cluster of daily moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
