Forex News
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD has been confined to tight ranges around 1.3455, with a slight increase in near-term downside momentum. They expect any intraday decline to stay within 1.3430–1.3475. On a 1–3 week view, momentum has eased and a break of 1.3410 would confirm that the previously eyed 1.3555 resistance is unlikely to be tested soon.
Range-bound trade with softer momentum
"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP edged higher to 1.3486 before closing at 1.3469 (+0.12%). When GBP was at 1.3470 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “while upward momentum has picked up slightly, it is more likely to result in GBP trading within a higher range of 1.3445/1.3495 rather than signaling the start of a sustained advance.” GBP subsequently traded within a relatively tight range of 1.3449/1.3479. This time around, there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but any decline is likely to be contained within a range of 1.3430/1.3475."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” After GBP struggled to extend its advance, we highlighted two days ago (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450) that “upward momentum has since eased, but there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” Upward momentum continues to ease, and from here, a breach of 1.3410 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that 1.3555 is not coming into view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening have helped EUR/USD climb, but questions how justified this move is. He stresses that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not preclude rate hikes, and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. Commerzbank has cut its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its horizon as perceived Dollar hike risks rise.
dollar risks reprice on Fed uncertainty
"Since last week's Fed meeting, expectations of interest rate hikes have been priced out. Rather than tightening by roughly 44 basis points by the end of the year, the expectation is now for 'only' 33. This is likely the main reason why EUR-USD has recently climbed higher again."
"The key point is this: the absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates. It simply means that any change will not be announced in advance. This shifts the focus to the decision itself and places greater emphasis on the data."
"Today's labour market figures could provide an initial indication of the direction of future monetary policy. Our economists expect 100,000 new jobs to be created, which is a stronger increase than the current Bloomberg consensus forecast of +80,000. However, the USD’s reaction will depend not only on the headline figure, but also on the extent of revisions to previous months' figures and the unemployment rate."
"If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes. While we still do not believe that the Fed ultimately intends to take this step, the market is unlikely to be deterred from continuing to bet on a rate hike. This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week."
"This is because, even though we have not adjusted our Fed forecast, the risk of an interest rate hike has clearly increased in recent weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The USD/CAD pair ticks higher to near 1.4023 ahead of US-Canada employment data.
- The Fed is expected to hike interest rates at the September meeting.
- A bullish flag pattern is in the making, suggesting that the overall trend is still bullish.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/CAD pair edging up to near 1.4023 in the European trading session. The Loonie pair is expected to trade sideways as investors await the labor market data for July from both the United States (US) and Canada.
Investors will pay close attention to both datasets to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook.
US jobs report in focus as Danske Bank sees solid labor backdrop
Analysts at Danske Bank highlight that “the most important data release will be the US July Jobs Report,” where they “forecast nonfarm payrolls at +70k, the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings at +0.3% m/m s.a.” The bank notes that “most leading data still point towards solid labour market conditions, although weak labour supply growth also weighs on the employment growth outlook,” adding that “the unemployment rate remains the Fed's primary focus.”
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 54.5% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the Canadian labor market report is expected to show that the economy created 15K fresh jobs, slightly lower than 18.2K in June. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 6.5%.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD trades at 1.4023, retaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4062. However, the formation of a Bullish Flag chart pattern suggests that the overall trend is still bullish.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.1 sits just under neutral, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered between the 20-period EMA at 1.4062 and the channel top at 1.4076; a decisive break above that zone would open the way for an upside move towards 1.4200. On the downside, the lower boundary of the Bullish Flag channel at around 1.3902 will be the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- EUR/GBP steadies above 0.8560 after being rejected at 0.8580 for the second time.
- A bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart suggests that Euro bulls might be giving up.
- German data was mixed on Friday: Industrial Production beat expectations, but the Trade Balance narrowed in June.
The Euro (EUR) trades practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, moving in a tight range above 0.8560 during the early European session, following another rejection at the 0.8680 area. The daily chart, however, shows a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday, a bearish signal suggesting a deeper downside correction.
On the macroeconomic front, mixed German data has failed to provide any significant support to the pair on Friday. Industrial Production beat the market consensus, with a 0.2% gain in June, down from May's 0.7% increase, but above the 0.1% expected. German trade Balance, on the other hand, has shown a EUR 15.4 billion surplus in June, down from May’s upwardly revised EUR 19.4 billion, and below the EUR 17.4 billion surplus expected by the market.
Monetary policy divergence keeps weighing on the Pound
The UK calendar is thin on Friday, but the divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB), which has repeatedly hinted at an interest rate hike in the coming months, and a divided Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy committee is keeping the Pound's recovery attempts limited so far.
FX Strategists at Rabobank argue that the recent shift in market expectations toward “steady policy from the BoE this year,” combined with the prospect of mounting “nervousness ahead of the October budget,” points to “scope for downside pressure on the pound as the summer draws to a close.”
In this context, the bank says it “favour[s] buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” adding that “a break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
- AUD/USD stalls this week’s modest pullback from the highest level since June 17.
- Iran risks and Fed-hike bets underpin the USD, capping the upside for spot prices.
- The technical setup favors bulls as the market focus remains on the US NFP report.
The AUD/USD pair finds some support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June corrective slide and, for now, seems to have stalled its pullback from the highest level since June 17, around 0.7065, touched earlier this week. Spot prices, however, struggle to attract meaningful buyers as geopolitical uncertainties continue to support the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details.
The closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path. The outlook, in turn, would drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair. In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. This is seen acting as a tailwind for the USD and capping the upside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair's inability to build on this week's strength above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent failure near the 50% Fibo. level warrants some caution for bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests moderately constructive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds slightly positive. Moreover, spot prices hold comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6923.
The long-term moving average remains well below the current price, hinting at broader downside protection. Hence, any further weakness below the 38.2% Fibo. level and the 0.7000 psychological mark could find decent support near the 23.6% level at 0.6966 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6923. Further down, the structural floor near 0.6870 is expected to act as a more significant medium-term base for the AUD/USD pair if short-term bearish pressure resumes.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.7052, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7074 and the 61.8% level at 0.7122, with higher barriers emerging at 0.7190 and 0.7277.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 07, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 80K
Previous: 57K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- EUR/JPY could find initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 39 indicates weak momentum.
- The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.09.
EUR/JPY halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 182.50 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The short- and medium-term moving averages now act as layered overhead resistance, hinting at a capped tone while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator around 39 suggests weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
Yen under scrutiny as Japan and US officials push back on weakness
Analysts at Scotiabank highlight that "officials (both Japanese and US) remain concerned about the level and path of the Yen, and have been determined to push back on recent weakness." This ongoing vigilance underscores the degree of discomfort with the current USD/JPY trajectory and reinforces the sense that policymakers are closely monitoring the currency’s performance as it drifts back toward post-intervention lows.
Further intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could find initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 183.09, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.63. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.07% | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.06% | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.05% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
