Forex News
- Asian stocks advance as the rate hike concerns ease after the US–Iran ceasefire.
- Asian markets may struggle as risk aversion rises amid persistent uncertainty over the fragile US–Iran ceasefire.
- President Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement.
Asian equities rise following a rally on Wall Street overnight as the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing concerns over renewed inflation and further rate hikes by the central banks.
At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading 1.85% higher near 56,900, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up over 0.64% to near 25,900, China’s SSE Composite Index gains 0.77% to near 4,000, and South Korea’s Kospi gains 1.55% to near 5,870.
However, the Asian stocks may struggle as traders remain cautious amid renewed risk aversion driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire longevity. Expected diplomatic talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad this weekend remain uncertain, with no official confirmation of delegates’ arrival on Friday.
Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, despite Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will soon begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.
Japanese stocks may face challenges amid rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates in April to stay ahead of inflation. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed near 2.4% on Friday, close to its highest level since 1998. Yields have surged since the Middle East conflict began, as higher energy prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened bets on tighter BoJ policy.
China’s Consumer Price Index rose 1% YoY in March, down from 1.3% in February and below the 1.2% consensus. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.7% after a 1.0% increase previously. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index rose 0.5% YoY, rebounding from a 0.9% decline and marking its first increase since September 2022, supported partly by higher energy costs amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
(This story was corrected on April 10 at 9:15 GMT to say that China’s Consumer Price Index rose 1% YoY in March, not 0.9%.)
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that despite Brent crude trading in a USD 100–120 range in Q1 2026, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stayed within its established 96–101 band. He attributes the US Dollar's (USD) muted haven response to a less urgent Federal Reserve (Fed), tighter policy relative to inflation, and fading enthusiasm for the so‑called Trump Trade.
Dollar rangebound despite Oil spike
"Stepping back to look at the broader trend since early 2026, the DXY Index was surprisingly muted compared to previous energy shocks."
"Despite Brent crude’s spike into a $100-120 range in Q1, the DXY held the 96-101 range set since mid-2025."
"We noted that the USD’s haven status during this oil shock was significantly lower than in 2022."
"Unlike in 2022, the Fed has no urgency to catch up with rising inflation driven by demand."
"Hence, the DXY is not rushing to extend its rise above 100 today, held back by a Fed with a wait-and-see stance on interest rates."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY edges higher to around 159.30 in Friday’s early European session.
- Traders will closely monitor the US CPI inflation report on Friday ahead of US-Iran talks.
- Japan plans to release 20-days worth of oil stock from early May onwards.
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to near 159.30 during the early European trading hours on Friday. A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Traders await the crucial US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report later on Friday, which could provide direction for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) higher-for-longer interest rate stance. Market consensus expects to see headline CPI inflation rise to 3.3% YoY in March from 2.4% in February, driven by soaring oil prices due to the Middle East war.
Meanwhile, the core CPI YoY is projected to show a rise of 2.7% in March, versus 2.5% prior. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could underpin the Greenback against the JPY in the near term.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he expects Iran to comply with terms he says were agreed on for a ceasefire ahead of planned negotiations this weekend, warning that if it doesn't, he'll order large-scale attacks on the country.
The outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran on Saturday in Pakistan will be closely watched. The US delegation will be led by US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated on Friday that the government is weighing a plan to release approximately 20 days' worth of additional oil reserves starting from early May onwards. This move aims to stabilize domestic energy supplies amid persistent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 10:
Markets take a breather early Friday and major currency pairs' fluctuations remain contained as investors' focus shifts to the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). The economic calendar will also feature Canada employment data for March and the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for April.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.40% | -1.70% | -0.24% | -0.79% | -2.50% | -2.57% | -1.27% | |
| EUR | 1.40% | -0.30% | 1.17% | 0.64% | -1.11% | -1.21% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | 1.70% | 0.30% | 1.41% | 0.92% | -0.81% | -0.91% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | -1.17% | -1.41% | -0.54% | -2.25% | -2.30% | -1.05% | |
| CAD | 0.79% | -0.64% | -0.92% | 0.54% | -1.72% | -1.77% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 2.50% | 1.11% | 0.81% | 2.25% | 1.72% | -0.07% | 1.26% | |
| NZD | 2.57% | 1.21% | 0.91% | 2.30% | 1.77% | 0.07% | 1.34% | |
| CHF | 1.27% | -0.12% | -0.44% | 1.05% | 0.48% | -1.26% | -1.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Following Wednesday's risk rally, markets adopted a cautious tone on Thursday with investors doubting the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Nonetheless, the US Dollar (USD) Index registered small daily losses and Wall Street's main indexes gained between 0.5% and 0.7%. After suffering heavy losses midweek, crude Oil prices edged higher and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose about 1% on the day before stabilizing near $92.00.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that he has ordered the start of direct negotiations with Lebanon "as soon as possible," with talks expected to center on disarming Hezbollah and establishing a formal peace between the two nations. However, Netanyahu later clarified that there is "no ceasefire in Lebanon" and that they will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iran was doing a "very poor job" of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Early Friday, US Stock index futures trade marginally lower and USD Index clings to gains near 99.00. In the US, the CPI is forecast to rise 3.3% on a yearly basis in March, up sharply from 2.4% in February.
Gold (XAU/USD) rose about 1% on Thursday but lost its recovery momentum early Friday. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading in a tight channel at around $4,750.
EUR/USD posted gains for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday before entering a consolidation phase at around 1.1700 on Friday.
USD/CAD recovers slightly and trades at around 1.3830 after touching its weakest level in two weeks near near 1.3800 on Thursday. In Canada, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge higher to 6.8% from 6.7% in February.
GBP/USD retreats in the European morning on Friday but holds above 1.3400 following a four-day climb.
USD/JPY closed in positive territory on Thursday and continued to edge higher in the Asian session on Friday. As of writing, the pair was up 0.2% on the day near 159.30. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said that the Japanese economy is not in stagflation and explained that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could push down growth and accelerate inflation.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow notes that Gold has been consolidating in a tight range despite sharp moves in energy markets, as traders await key US CPI data.
The report highlights stronger institutional demand, with rising ETF holdings after late-March weakness. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and upcoming US data remain key drivers for Gold.
Institutional demand and geopolitical risk
"Gold prices consolidated in a narrow range overnight, exhibiting muted price action despite heightened volatility in energy markets."
"Doubts over the durability of the Middle East ceasefire, underscored by the continued blockage of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices toward the $100 threshold."
"Yet, real yields remained largely unchanged, decoupling from energy market turbulence as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of today’s pivotal US CPI release."
"Institutional appetite for gold has strengthened noticeably over the past week."
"ETF holdings have been rising steadily as institutional investors systematically scale into positions, capitalising on late-March price weakness to establish strategic exposure. In the near term, attention will remain focused on the outcomes of upcoming discussions between the US and Iran and whether transit activity normalises in the coming days."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that Asia FX gains on ceasefire hopes are running ahead of fundamentals, as Oil retains a structural floor and US yields stay elevated. He highlights that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued and war-risk premia high, reinforcing US Dollar strength and suggesting Asia FX relief rallies are vulnerable to reversal.
Relief rally seen as fragile and temporary
"While the announcement of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire has provided short-term relief to Asia FX, the reprieve looks fragile. The ceasefire does not appear to cover Lebanon, and Israel’s subsequent strike on Lebanon has raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire agreement. More tellingly, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and war-risk insurance premia are likely to stay elevated, even under a ceasefire."
"For Asia FX to move from a relief-driven bounce to more sustained recovery, several conditions would likely need to be met. First, there must be a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker volumes normalizing. Second, oil prices would need to decline sustainably, reducing the inflation effect that is currently feeding into higher US yields and underpinning the US dollar."
"Third, the Fed would need to re-anchor toward policy easing. At this stage, none of these conditions have been sufficiently fulfilled. This argues for fading ceasefire-driven strength in Asia FX, particularly in oil-sensitive currencies such as INR, PHP, and THB."
"However, CNY strength continues to provide a stabilizing anchor for the region, underpinned by China’s sizeable strategic reserves, while Singapore’s deep energy infrastructure, diversified energy sourcing, and ample fiscal buffers could keep SGD relatively resilient below the 1.3100 level against USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD retraces to near 0.5845 as antipodeans face pressure ahead of US-Iran negotiations.
- Military attacks in Lebanon have raised concerns over the hopes of a US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
- This week, the RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at 2.25%.
The NZD/USD pair corrects after a four-day winning streak, trading 0.25% lower to near 0.5845 during the early European trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair faces slight selling pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the 10-point peace proposal, proposed by Tehran in consideration of a permanent ceasefire.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.27% | 0.26% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.14% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.05% | 0.12% | 0.11% | -0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.16% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.01% | -0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.00% | -0.16% | 0.01% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.11% | 0.28% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade subduedly around 6,825, after a two-day rally, reflecting a calm market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.90.
Meanwhile, continued military attacks between Israel and Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon have raised concerns over hopes of a positive outcome from US-Iran talks in Pakistan over the weekend.
On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% on Wednesday, as expected, and guided that the monetary policy path would remain on the upside. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said, “Tightening could be at every meeting or every other meeting, it depends,” and added, “Neutral rate is a range with a midpoint at 3.0%.”
In the US, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
NZD/USD technical analysis
At press time, NZD/USD trades lower at around 0.5845. The daily chart shows a mildly bullish near-term bias, as spot trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5803, suggesting that recent dips would be supported rather than extended.
A quick shift by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the area below 40.00, indicates the onset of a bullish reversal rather than just a pullback move.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-day EMA at 0.5803, where a daily close below would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the April 3 high of 0.5754. As long as buyers defend this moving average on pullbacks, the path of least resistance favors further recovery attempts toward the March 19 high at 0.5893. A decisive break above 0.5893 would open the door for further advancement towards the March 10 high of 0.5965.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 02:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 2.25%
Consensus: 2.25%
Previous: 2.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
- The Euro stands above 0.8700 against the Pound but is on track for a moderate weekly decline.
- The pair trades in range amid a frail market sentiment as Iran's ceasefire staggers.
- German inflation data endorses the view of an upcoming ECB rate hike.
The Euro (EUR) holds moderate gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday. The pair edges up above 0.8700 at the European session’s opening times, yet on track to a minor weekly decline, with both currencies trimming gains against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) as Iran’s ceasefire staggers.
Tehran has threatened to pull out of the peace process after massive attacks from Israel killed more than 300 people in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has complained about Iran’s poor handling of the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, warning on Truth Social that "That is not the agreement we have".
Data released by the Hormuz Trail Monitor shows that only seven vessels have crossed the critical waterway in the last 24 hours. This is about a 5% of the 140 ships that would sail through the strait in an average day before the war, while Iranian authorities are reportedly charging fees for Oil tankers.
German Inflationary pressures soar in March
In the economic docket, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed preliminary figures showing that inflation accelerated 1.2% in March and 2.8% year on year, from 0.4% and 2.0% respectively, boosted by higher energy prices amid the war in the Middle East.
These figures fuel market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced to hike rates in the coming months, and maybe as soon as in April. The Bank of England (BoE), on the contrary, is taking a “wait and see " stance and is not expected to tighten its monetary policy anytime soon. This is providing some competitive advantage to the Euro.
(This story was corrected on April 10 at 07;50 GMT to say that the German year-on-year HICP accelerated to 2.8% in March from 2.0% in February, instead of the 2.7% and 1.9% respective figures previously reported.)
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 1.2%
Consensus: 1.2%
Previous: 1.2%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.8%
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.8%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Danske Research Team reports that global equities extended gains, led by US markets, with cyclical sectors outperforming while defensive and low-volatility names lag. The VIX has fallen back below 20, and Asian equities and European futures are trading higher, suggesting risk appetite remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Cyclicals lead while defensives unwind
"Equities continued higher yesterday, led by the US, and the week is increasingly shaping up as a full reversal on the equity side. We have seen pronounced cyclical outperformance, while low-vol/defensive equities have been aggressively unwound."
"With VIX now back below 20, this should serve as a yet another reminder of how markets behave in periods characterised by elevated geopolitical noise, a still-solid macro backdrop, and late-cycle exuberance. In such environments, the behavioural component becomes critical highlighting the risk of 'running after the market' when breaking news hits the screen continuously."
"Despite the strong focus on Iran, an equally important theme is unfolding beneath the surface, both for equities and for broader asset allocation, including private equity and private credit. Namely, that 'tech is no longer just tech'. Software continues to lag meaningfully and yesterday was another clear example: software was the worst-performing segment, while semiconductors outperformed sharply, by ~4pp in the US and ~7pp in Europe on the day alone."
"Zooming out, this is a continuation of a trend we highlighted months ago in our "When tech disrupts tech" editorial. Over the past nine months, hardware has been the best-performing industry in the US, while software has been the worst, leaving hardware outperforming software by ~125 percentage point (!) over the period."
"This morning, Asian equities are trading higher, European futures are pointing up, while US futures are broadly flat."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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