Forex News
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,272.80 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,437.96 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 143,147.50 per tola from INR 145,073.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,272.80 |
10 Grams | 122,731.50 |
Tola | 143,147.50 |
Troy Ounce | 381,739.80 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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- EUR/JPY may find initial support at the 12-month low of 175.07.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 45.73, indicating subdued bullish momentum.
- The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 176.91.
EUR/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 176.80 during Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the currency cross is remaining within a descending channel pattern, indicating a prevailing bearish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short- and medium-term EMAs above price suggest rallies remain capped for now, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.73 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the initial support at the 12-month low of 175.07, reached on October 30, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 174.00. A break below the channel would open the door for the currency cross to navigate the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 176.91, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 50-day EMA of 178.59. A successful break above the medium-term price average would cause a bullish reversal, supporting the EUR/JPY cross to explore the area around the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.
Yen still weighed down by structural outflows despite distorted rate signals
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU note that recent official action has complicated the usual relationship between the Yen and interest rate differentials, with “intervention in last July / early August” having “distorted the link with rates.” However, they stress that the underlying message from the currency’s behaviour is clear: “what the movement of the yen does indicate is that there are still some structural flows that continue to weigh on yen performance and those flows could well be slow to change.” This suggests that, even as rate dynamics evolve, persistent portfolio and FDI outflows remain a key drag on JPY, and are unlikely to reverse quickly.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.20% | 0.54% | 0.58% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | -0.07% | -0.21% | 0.03% | 0.36% | 0.40% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.10% | 0.43% | 0.47% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.57% | 0.60% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.23% | 0.33% | 0.37% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | -0.54% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.57% | -0.33% | 0.04% | -0.56% | |
| NZD | -0.58% | -0.40% | -0.47% | -0.60% | -0.37% | -0.04% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.56% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The RBA raised interest rates to 4.85%, but a split vote signals a potential December pause.
- High Australian inflation persists, but less hawkish central bank guidance continues to weigh on the currency.
- US Dollar gains support from market caution, though falling bond yields and political gridlock limit upside.
AUD/USD remains subdued after registering over 1% losses the previous day, trading around 0.6910 during Asian hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar lost ground against the US Dollar (USD) as expectations for further interest rate hikes were dampened by less hawkish guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Although Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3, the split 6–3 decision, with three policymakers favoring no change, along with the removal of explicit language regarding future tightening, pointed to a possible pause in December. Nevertheless, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled at the Australian National University in Canberra on Thursday that inflationary pressures remain very high.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar found support in widespread market caution as investors await the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to play a critical role in shaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy decision.
However, that dollar support was counterbalanced by several opposing factors. Recent declines in US bond yields and lingering hopes for diplomatic progress with Iran continue to keep the safe-haven greenback on the back foot. Furthermore, the Democrats' victory has raised expectations of political gridlock in Washington, which could constrain government spending and ultimately lead to slower economic growth.
USD support seen holding as Fed tightening and institutional guardrails remain in focus
Strategists at OCBC argue that the broader macro backdrop continues to favour the Dollar, noting that “with US growth still solid, inflation sticky and the Fed on track for further tightening, we retain our view that the USD should remain supported, albeit with greater two-way risks.” They add that a Democratic Senate “should also strengthen the institutional guardrails around Fed independence by making it harder for the administration to confirm additional allies to the Federal Reserve Board,” reinforcing their view that policy continuity at the Fed will underpin the currency even as market volatility around the outlook increases.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- NZD/USD weakens to around 0.5585 in Friday’s Asian session.
- The New Zealand jobless rate climbed to 5.7% in Q3, its highest since 2015.
- Democrats sweeping in Congress could push Treasury yields and US Dollar lower.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.5585 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its downside against the US Dollar (USD) due to soft employment data and political uncertainty in New Zealand. The US September jobs report will be in the spotlight later in the day.
Data released by Statistics New Zealand earlier this week showed that Unemployment Rate rose to 5.7% in the three months ended September, its highest level in nearly 11 years. This figure followed 5.6% in the previous quarter and was above the market consensus of 5.5%.
Attention will shift to the New Zealand general election on Saturday. Christopher Luxon's center-right National Party-led coalition is facing mounting pressure to demonstrate that its policies can lift growth and ease cost-of-living strains, with a LPSOS poll earlier this week listing inflation and the cost of living as the top concern for voters ahead of an election contest on November 7.
The Democrats win a majority in both the US Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, taking control from Republicans. This achieved major victories in several Republican strongholds for the first time in decades, as tens of millions of voters delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump.
The sweep of Congress by Democrats dragged oil prices lower on speculation the election would speed an end to the Iran war and prompted traders to trim bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 70.9% odds that the Fed will raise rates in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
RBNZ surprise keeps RBA watchers on edge as New Zealand diverges from Australia
Rabobank’s strategists note that “last week’s decision by the RBNZ to leave rates unchanged blindsided a market that was priced for a hike,” and has “led to some soul searching ahead of this week’s RBA decision.” The central bank underscored the mixed backdrop at its policy meeting, commenting that while “annual inflation is expected to increase to 4.4% in the December quarter (largely on the back of fuel),” “domestic demand remains subdued.”
Rabobank contrasts the macro setting across the Tasman, pointing out that “the performance of the New Zealand economy has been very different from that of Australia in recent years, with the former only emerging from recession in late 2024 to an unbalanced performance last year.” They add that “despite some strong green shoots for New Zealand in Q1 2026, this was ahead of the headwinds caused by the Iran war.”
Against that backdrop, Rabobank argues that “the shock of last week’s RBNZ policy decision has underpinned some concerns over the signals that RBA Governor Bullock may provide this week,” with investors wary of another central bank wrong-footing a market positioned for further tightening.
Barkin flags solid demand and sticky inflation, keeping Dollar bulls alert despite sentiment pullback
Barkin’s speech scores 6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, essentially in line with the 6.1/10 historical average, signaling a steady, moderately hawkish tone. The emphasis on solid demand, strong earnings, broad-based cost pressures and the need to pass these along, alongside the view that inflation is unlikely to either accelerate or fall, underscores a bias toward maintaining at least neutral-to-restrictive policy, with “gradual makes sense” framing the pace rather than the direction. Comments that AI-driven demand and AI buildout are adding near-term inflationary pressure, while inflation remains the most important risk, reinforce a backdrop where the Dollar is supported by expectations of sustained policy firmness even if the policy rate is described as “somewhere around neutral.”
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.31 points to 144.92, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness but still firmly in hawkish territory. Despite the slight decline, the combination of solid demand, sticky inflation and AI-related cost pressures means the FXS Fed Sentiment Index level well above 100 continues to signal a policy stance that should underpin the Dollar, even as markets fine-tune expectations around the pace rather than the direction of future moves.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD keeps a bearish tone below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, NZD/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period middle SMA. Price is hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band support, underscoring persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 shows only a modest recovery from oversold territory, hinting that selling momentum is easing but not yet reversing.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger 20-period middle SMA around 0.5640, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 0.5715 before the more substantial hurdle at the 100-day SMA near 0.5755, where stronger supply could cap rebounds. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 0.5565 offers immediate support; a decisive break beneath this floor would likely open the door to further losses, while holding above it keeps the pair in a weakly consolidative phase within the broader bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- Silver reverses an Asian session slide, stalling the overnight pullback from a one-week high.
- The intraday recovery lacks follow-through as traders seem hesitant ahead of the US NFP.
- The mixed technical setup further warrants some caution before placing directional bets.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers near the $51.25 region during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-$53.00s, or a one-week high. The white metal retakes the $52.00 mark in the last hour, though the upside seems limited as traders await the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing directional bets.
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD showed some resilience below the $51.70-$51.65 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downswing from late October. The said area offers immediate underlying support and hints at ongoing consolidation rather than a decisive trend amid mixed momentum indicators.
In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero, suggesting that bullish pressure has faded but sellers lack clear dominance for now. Hence, any subsequent move up could face initial resistance at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $52.34, ahead of a higher barrier at the 78.6% retracement near $53.35 and the recent cycle high of $54.64.
On the downside, a close back below the clustered support formed by the 100-period EMA and the 50.0% retracement, around the $51.70-$51.65 region, would expose the 38.2% level at $50.92, with deeper bearish pressure likely bringing the 23.6% retracement at $50.04 into view.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/JPY attracts some buyers during the Asian session, though the upside seems limited.
- The recent slump in US bond yields and Iran diplomacy hopes act as a headwind for the USD.
- A hawkish BoJ might support the JPY and cap spot prices ahead of the crucial US NFP report.
The USD/JPY pair stages a modest recovery from the 157.25 area, or fresh weekly touched during the Asian session on Friday, and climbs to the 158.00 neighborhood in the last hour. Spot prices now seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak, though the upside seems capped as traders might opt to wait for the release of the crucial US monthly employment details before placing fresh directional bets.
The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which in turn will drive US Dollar (USD) demand. Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade turns out to be a key factor behind the USD/JPY pair's intraday rebound, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.
A decisive Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections lowered expectations that US President Donald Trump will resume military strikes against ? Iran, triggering a steep decline in crude oil prices and easing inflationary concerns. This forced traders to trim their bets for a Fed hike in December. Adding to this, a bruising rout on Wall Street forced investors to take refuge in safe-haven assets and dragged US bond yields to a near two-month low, capping the upside for the USD.
The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, might continue to draw support from hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations. In fact, minutes of the September BoJ meeting showed on Thursday that policymakers concurred it was appropriate to keep increasing the policy interest rate and modify the level of monetary easing. This reaffirms market bets for an interest rate hike in December, which favors JPY bulls and might keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY daily chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair maintains a mildly bearish near-term tone beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.66, suggesting that rallies are likely to face selling interest while the broader structure remains below this key average. Bulls would need to reclaim the said barrier to ease downside pressure and open the door for a more constructive bias.
On the downside, the daily swing low, around 157.25, could lend some support ahead of the 157.00 mark and the lower boundary of a short-term trading range, around the 156.60-156.50 region. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to decline further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- EUR/USD softens to around 1.1215 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Hawkish remarks from ECB policymakers might help limit the Euro’s losses.
- Traders brace for the US September jobs data on Friday for fresh impetus.
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to near 1.1215 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by a cautious mood. However, the potential downside for the pair might be limited amid the hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). All eyes will be on the US September jobs data later on Friday.
ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank will probably increase borrowing costs next month due to the worsening outlook for inflation. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Klaas Knot said that the central bank will likely have to continue with a hawkish stance and be wary of inflation shocks. Economists expect a final move in rates next month, though markets see tightening continuing beyond that, into 2027.
Lower US Treasury yields could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the major pair. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell about 10 basis points (bps) overnight to 4.47%.
The move in bonds also reflected a repricing of Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, with Fed funds futures scaling back the probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike in December to around 70% from more than 70.9% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders will take more clues from Friday's US jobs data to gauge the Fed's rate path. Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to show a rise of 65,000 jobs in September, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to stay unchanged at 4.2% during the same period.
"Recent data suggests improvement in the labor market, and we expect that to continue with this report," said MUFG analysts, referring to the non-farm payrolls data.
Euro inflation data anchors swaps as Euro and US breakevens hit two-month lows
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that a relatively quiet data calendar still delivered an important signal on price dynamics, with the release of the Euro Area flash CPI print for October. They highlight that the reading "came in as expected by the consensus, with headline inflation up to a 3-year high of +4.0% in October, whilst core inflation remained at +2.5%." In their view, this was accompanied by a sharp repricing in near-term inflation expectations, as "that led to a huge decline in inflation expectations, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-25.9bps) down to a two-month low of 3.10%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (-24.9bps) hit a two-month low of 2.16%."
On the rates side, Deutsche Bank points out that the move in inflation swaps coincided with a strong rally in European sovereign bonds. They report that "yields on 10yr bunds (-5.8bps) fell to 3.27%, whilst 10yr OATs (-17.6bps) saw their biggest daily decline since April, falling to 4.77%." This compression also fed through to the core-periphery spread, with the bank noting that "that also pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread down by -11.8bps to 150bps, marking its tightest level in the last couple of weeks."
Lagarde leans hawkish as inflation risks stay in focus
ECB President Lagarde’s speech scores 6.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the historic average of 5.6/10, pointing to a slightly more impactful and hawkish tone. Emphasis that it is “still necessary to apply tools to avoid inflation running away” and that shocks are hard to disentangle suggests the ECB remains biased toward keeping policy tight, even as uncertainty around supply and demand dynamics persists.
Comments that US tariffs are unlikely to be revisited quickly and that US mid-term votes may affect trade only over time underline a cautious stance on external risks, with potential implications for the Euro via growth and trade channels. The reference to the energy shock and AI pulling in opposite directions highlights a complex backdrop in which the ECB is likely to stay vigilant, reinforcing a mild upside bias for the Euro as markets price in sustained inflation-fighting resolve.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative bias below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds a bearish near-term tone as spot remains capped beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price sits just under the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting topside pressure, while it trades above the Bollinger middle band, which now acts as initial support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.7 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and reinforcing the idea of a recovery that is still constrained by overhead supply.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1260, followed by a more meaningful barrier at the 100-day SMA near 1.1415. On the downside, first support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at 1.1195, ahead of a lower protective zone at the Bollinger lower band around 1.1130, where sellers could pause before attempting fresh lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CAD moves little as recovering WTI prices enhance Canada’s export revenues.
- Democratic election victories spark gridlock expectations and hopes for Iran diplomacy, keeping the safe-haven dollar subdued.
- Traders await key US employment data to gauge the Fed's December rate stance.
USD/CAD moves little after registering modest gains in the previous day, hovering around 1.4010 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair may lose ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from higher oil prices. As one of the world's largest oil producers and a major exporter to the United States (US), Canada benefits directly from rising crude markets. Higher oil prices traditionally strengthen the CAD by improving the country's export revenues and terms of trade, whereas falling prices tend to exert downward pressure on the currency.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has gained traction as traders assess recovering Middle Eastern supplies alongside the geopolitical outlook following the US midterm elections. Crude prices extended their recovery after Wednesday's sell-off, driven partly by the Democrats sweeping both the House and the Senate. This political shift prompted speculation that US President Donald Trump might face increased pressure to end the eight-month conflict with Iran. However, prospects for a swift resolution remain uncertain as market participants reconsider whether the election outcomes will truly lead to a quick end to the war.
Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair remains steady as the US Dollar (USD) finds support in widespread market caution ahead of key economic data. Investors are awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to play a critical role in shaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy decision.
Countering that dollar support, recent declines in US bond yields and lingering hopes for diplomatic progress with Iran continue to keep the safe-haven greenback on the back foot. Additionally, the Democrats' victory has raised expectations of political gridlock in Washington, which could constrain government spending and ultimately lead to slower economic growth.
Strategists at OCBC caution against reading too much into the post-election Dollar weakness, warning that they “would be cautious about extrapolating the initial USD sell-off into a sustained decline.” They argue that while Democrats have secured control of Congress, this “does not mean unrestricted policy power,” with “major legislation” still “vulnerable to President Trump's veto.” OCBC also underscores that Democrats “lack the two-thirds majorities in both chambers needed to override it,” suggesting that the scope for transformative policy shifts remains constrained and, by extension, limiting the case for a structurally weaker USD at this stage.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- GBP/USD stalls the previous day’s retracement slide from mid-September highs on softer USD.
- The recent slump in US bond yields and Iran diplomacy hopes keep USD bulls on the back foot.
- The BoE’s hawkish outlook further supports the GBP as traders await the crucial US NFP report.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above the 1.3500 psychological mark, or its highest level since mid-September. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bets ahead of the release of the crucial US monthly employment details, with spot prices currently trading just above 1.3450, up only 0.05% for the day.
The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) move in December, which, in turn, will drive US Dollar (USD) demand and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Heading into the key data risk, the recent slump in US bond yields and hopes for Iran diplomacy keep the safe-haven USD on the back foot, offering some support to the currency pair.
Democrats' overwhelming victory in the US midterm elections raised expectations of political gridlock, which could limit government spending and lead to slower economic growth. Moreover, top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer vowed on Wednesday to push for an end to the Iran war, triggering an over 10% weekly fall in crude oil prices. This helps ease inflationary concerns and drags US bond yields to a near two-month low, capping the safe-haven USD.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish shift, raising interest rates for the first time in more than three years and signaling that a further increase is likely unless the US-Iran war is resolved. Moreover, Chancellor John Healey's 2026 Autumn Budget reduced immediate risks of a runaway fiscal crisis, which is seen as another factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP and the GBP/USD pair.
Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end on a positive note for the fourth consecutive week. Moreover, the supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to be short-lived.
GBP/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair holds above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3421 and key Fibonacci supports, suggesting a constructive near-term bias. The pair is pressing into a dense retracement area, with the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.3470 capping the immediate topside and defining the next hurdle for buyers within the broader recovery from the 1.3138 cycle low.
A clear break above the 61.8% Fibo. would open the way toward the 78.6% level at 1.3560, ahead of the August swing high at 1.3674, where a more significant supply zone could emerge. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA at 1.3421, followed by the 50.0% level at 1.3406, while deeper pullbacks would likely target the 38.2% retracement at 1.3343.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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