Forex News
- US private employers added an average of 25.5K jobs per week in late May.
- Job gains lose further momentum, receding from the previous week’s drop.
Private-sector hiring in the US has cooled in late May. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 25.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 30.
That marks a marginal downtick from the prior reading (29K), showing further impasse in hiring.
What do the ADP figures mean for the US Dollar?
The Greenback alternates gains with losses around 99.70 following Monday’s pullback, briefly reaching two-day highs when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The weekly decline in the US Dollar (USD) exclusively follows the cooling of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as market participants continue to assess the recently announced MOU between the US and Iran.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, note AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to hold its 50‑day moving average and forming a pattern of lower highs and lows. The pair must reclaim 0.7140 to avoid a deeper decline, with downside technical objectives around 0.6890 and 0.6830, while fundamentals are driven by iron ore and US real rates.
Key resistance at 0.7140 caps upside
"AUD/USD has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe chart, signaling the onset of a short-term pullback."
"It failed to defend the 50-DMA and has carved out an interim low around 0.6980."
"Failure to cross 0.7140 may lead to persistence in decline."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF remains on the defensive, below 0.7050, with 0.7030 in the bears' focus.
- Hopes of a lasting peace in the Middle East are keeping the US Dollar's upside attempts limited.
- The pair approaches the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern.
The US Dollar (USD) posts marginal losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, with bears aiming for a key support area between 0.7900 and 0.7930. Moderate optimism about a US-Iran peace deal is keeping the USD’s rally subdued, while investors’ caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting is limiting dips for now.
US President Trump affirmed at the G7 summit that the deal with Tehran is going to a “second stage” and that Iran agreed never to have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, the UK newspaper Guardian, citing the Israeli Haaretz, affirms that the deal includes the release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets in exchange for allowing toll-free navigation in Hormuz.
Investors will have some distraction from the Middle East conflict on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) concludes its first monetary policy meeting under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh. Warsh is expected to adopt a more dovish stance than his predecessor, Jerome Powell, and traders will have the interest rate and economic projection releases to contrast those views.
Technical Analysis: A bearish Head & Shoulders is in progress
USD/CHF trades at 0.7946, keeping a mildly bearish near-term bias with recent price action showing a potential Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the mid‑40s while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, suggesting that upside attempts could continue to struggle unless momentum improves.
Bears are focusing on the 0.7930 area (Monday's low), the upper boundary of a previous resistance area, now turned support. Halfway through that area lies the neckline of the H&S pattern, now at 0.7915, while the lower boundary would be at the 0.7900 area (May 19, 20, 21, and 28 highs). Below there, the June 4 and 5 lows are around 0.6870. The H&S's measured target is at the June 2 low, near 0.7845
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the area between 0.7960 and 0.7970, Monday and Friday's lows, respectively. A confirmation above those levels negates this view and brings the June 11 high, at 0.8013, into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang reports that USD/JPY was little changed around 160.30, with recent price action offering no fresh directional clues. The bank expects intraday consolidation between 159.90 and 160.50, while the 1–3 week outlook remains for range trading between 159.40 and 160.70, even as longer-term charts still allow for a test of 161.15.
Dollar-Yen stuck in consolidation range
"Yesterday, we indicated that USD “could trade between 159.70 and 160.35.” USD subsequently traded within a slightly higher range of 159.72/160.39, closing little changed at 160.32 (+0.07%)."
"The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 159.90 and 160.50."
"We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (12 Jun, spot at 160.10). As highlighted, “for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a range between 159.40 and 160.70.”"
"Despite lacklustre momentum, there is scope for USD/JPY to test the top of the rising wedge near 161.15."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Societe Generale strategists argue that South African Rand dynamics hinge on upcoming CPI, retail sales and the Federal Reserve meeting. They note that repeatedly selling USD/ZAR rallies near the 200‑day moving average has worked well recently and see scope for a move back below 16.00 if global risk sentiment remains constructive after the FOMC decision.
200‑day moving average remains key level
"Selling USD/ZAR rallies near the 200dma has proved a successful strategy in recent months."
"A return below 16.00 cannot be ruled out if risk sentiment hold up post the FOMC tomorrow."
"For ZAR, the focus is on May CPI, retail sales and the Fed tomorrow."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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