Forex News
- The US Dollar trades flat against the Swiss Franc as USD strength is balanced by CHF safe-haven demand.
- Inflation data reinforce the case for a near-term pause in monetary policy by the US central bank.
- Political and geopolitical risks, however, continue to underpin the Swiss Franc’s safe-haven appeal.
USD/CHF trades around 0.8010 on Wednesday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. The pair draws mild support from the US Dollar (USD) after US inflation data were released broadly in line with market expectations.
Figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% YoY in December, matching both the previous reading and market forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, came in at 2.6% YoY, missing expectations for an uptick to 2.7%. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased by 0.3%, while the core measure rose by 0.2%.
These figures strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. Market pricing continues to suggest that the first rate cut is unlikely before mid-year, providing fundamental support to the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc (CHF). In this context, investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US releases, including Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI), to further assess the outlook for the US economy.
At the same time, the political backdrop in the United States (US) and ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a potential source of support for safe-haven currencies, such as the CHF. Concerns surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve, along with rising tensions in the Middle East, continue to underpin demand for the Swiss Franc. This environment is limiting the upside in USD/CHF, despite the recent resilience of the US Dollar, as investors continue to balance yield considerations against the need for safety.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.27% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.28% | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | 0.06% | -0.19% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.28% | 0.19% | 0.24% | 0.33% | 0.26% | 0.31% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.24% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.33% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.01% | -0.00% | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.31% | -0.07% | 0.03% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD edges up above 1.1650, but remains close to one-month lows, near 1.1620.
- The US Dollar gives away gains ahead of US PPI, Retail Sales data
- The pair remains in a bearish channel with one-month lows at 1.1618 in sight.
EUR/USD remains hovering within a tight range around the 1.1650 level, showing a flat performance on the daily chart. The softer-than-expected US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday failed to dent the US Dollar's (USD) recovery, and investors await US retail consumption and factory inflation figures for further insight into the US economic momentum
Figures from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed that price pressures remained fairly steady in December, against market hopes of an uptick in the core inflation. The data, however, did not change the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy expectations. Futures market is practically fully pricing a steady interest rate decision in the late-January meeting, and the chances of a rate cut in March have dropped to 26% from nearly 40% one week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Market volatility remains subdued in Europe in the absence of key macroeconomic releases. In the US, Retail Sales data and an array of Fed speakers will be in focus, although traders will keep an eye on the US Supreme Court, which might rule on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs later on Wednesday.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.32% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.31% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.09% | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.39% | 0.34% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.30% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.39% | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.14% | -0.34% | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.36% | -0.06% | 0.02% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: US CPI data failed to hurt the US Dollar
- The US Dollar maintains its moderate constructive tone intact, despite the softer-than-expected core CPI figure seen on Tuesday. Headline US inflation grew 0.3% pace in December and 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, while the core CPI slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% the previous month and grew at a steady 2.6% annual pace, against market expectations of 0.3% and 2.7% increases, respectively.
- The US ADP employment 4-week average report, on the other hand, revealed an 11.75K increase in the first week of 2026, following the previous 11K. This reading marks the fifth consecutive week with a net increase in jobs, which has contributed to easing concerns about the labour market and strengthens the case for steady Fed interest rates in the coming months.
- Also on Tuesday, the heads of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Canada (BoC), and nine other central banks released a statement showing their solidarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in reaction to the unprecedented attacks from US President Donald Trump. The central bankers defended the independence of their institutions as a cornerstone for price, financial, and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that they serve.
- Later on Wednesday, November's US Retail Sales are expected to show that consumption bounced up 0.4% after a flat performance in October, boosted by higher car sales. Excluding autos, sales of all other items are seen growing at a 0.4% pace, unchanged from last month.
- A slew of Fed speakers will also take the stage during the American session. The focus will be on Governor Stephen Miran, Trump's latest pick for the Board, and a vocal dove. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and New York Fed President John Williams will also meet the press on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bears eye the 1.1615 support area
The EUR/USD pair treads water below the 1.1650 line, after pulling back from the 1.1700 area earlier this week. Technical indicators show a neutral-to-bearish tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is practically flat on the 4-hour chart, showing a lack of momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 43, pointing to fading demand.
Price action remains trapped within a descending channel from late December highs. The intraday low is near 1.1635, and the one-month low of 1.1618 remains in the bears' sight. Further down, the confluence of the channel bottom and December 2 lows, right below 1.1600, is a key area.
Immediate resistance stands at the channel top, now around 1.1685, ahead of Monday's high, near 1.1700. Further up, the target is the January 6 high, in the area of 1.1740.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index (YoY)
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Wed Jan 14, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.7%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (YoY)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of goods sold at the retail level during a year. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. A result higher than expected is typically viewed as positive or bullish for the USD, whereas a lower than expected result is considered negative or bearish for the USD.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jan 14, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 3.5%
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
- Gold hits a fresh record high above $4,630 as Trump mulls an intervention in Iran.
- Moderate US CPI inflation keeps hopes of two rate cuts in 2026 intact.
- Technical indicators are giving signs of an overstretched Gold rally.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high above $4,630 ahead of the US session opening. Precious metals remain firm, underpinned by safe-haven demand, amid geopolitical tensions and moderate US inflation figures.
US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting on Tuesday, promising them that “help is on its way, as the victims of Tehran’s repression likely extend into the thousands. Meanwhile, US inflation figures have curbed expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut, though they keep hopes of two rate cuts in 2026 alive.
Technical analysis: Gold’s rally starts to look overstretched
XAU/USD trades at record highs at $4,634 at the time of writing. The bullish bias remains in play with moving averages trending higher. Technical indicators, however, are starting to give signs of an overstretched rally.
The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands just below overbought levels, revealing a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns lower with the histogram contracting, which suggests that the bullish momentum is stalling.
Above $4,630, the next targets would be at the 127.2% and the 161.8% Fibonacci extensions of the January 8-12 rally, at $4,689 and $4,763, respectively. Support is seen at Tuesday's low, near $4,570, and the January 2 low, right below $4,500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Silver posts a strong rally and hits a new all-time high above the $90 mark.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East strengthen demand for safe-haven assets.
- Concerns over the independence of US monetary policy weigh on the US Dollar and support precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its bullish momentum on Wednesday and trades around $90.50 at the time of writing, up 4.30% on the day. The white metal records a fourth consecutive day of gains and reaches a new all-time high, supported by a macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop that remains highly favorable for safe-haven assets.
Demand for Silver continues to be underpinned by rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, where widespread public protests linked to high inflation, the sharp depreciation of the Iranian Rial (IRR) and allegations of government corruption are challenging the authorities. The violent crackdown on demonstrators, which has reportedly resulted in hundreds of deaths according to human rights groups, has intensified risk aversion across global markets. Statements from US President Donald Trump, warning that military action could be considered if the repression continues, further add to the sense of uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, Silver fully benefits from its safe-haven status. Investors are seeking protection not only from geopolitical risks but also from growing institutional concerns in the United States (US). Worries surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) have intensified following the launch of criminal charges against its Chair, Jerome Powell, related to the management of funds allocated to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. Jerome Powell has denounced the move as politically motivated, arguing that it represents a pretext to influence monetary policy decisions.
These developments initially weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD), as markets feared that an attack on the autonomy of the US central bank could undermine the country’s financial credibility and, potentially, its sovereign credit rating. Although the Greenback has shown signs of stabilization after strong public support for Jerome Powell from several major global central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), the broader backdrop remains supportive for precious metals.
In addition, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to play a key role. In an environment where real yields are expected to decline and the US Dollar remains structurally under pressure, Silver retains a strong appeal for investors, especially as persistent tightness in the physical market and robust demand continue to underpin its outlook.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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