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US President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, Reuters reported on Monday.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war as his bottom-line demands remain the same.
"I wouldn't say they're considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don't want to get ahead of, and you'll hear directly from the president, I'm sure, on this topic," Leavitt said.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.35% on the day at $94.65.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold price falls to around $4,685 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Fed is likely to hold rates steady at its April meeting on Wednesday.
- Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with top aides.
Gold price (XAU/USD) slumps to near $4,685 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets turn to "wait-and-see" mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and shifting developments in the Middle East conflict.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December. Traders will closely monitor Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy meeting, as it might offer some hints about potential rate hikes later this year. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
The question of whether Powell will continue to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors even if Warsh is confirmed in time to run the next policy meeting in June also could be addressed.
Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have boosted crude oil prices, which have fueled inflation fears and raised the bar for cutting rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
CNBC reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends. The proposal would postpone negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions for a later date. Nonetheless, it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s industrial production rose strongly in March, lifting estimated 1Q26 GDP growth. Koh stresses that robust electronics and semiconductor output, supported by AI-related demand, is cushioning weakness in chemicals, especially petroleum and petrochemicals, where feedstock disruptions and regional refinery run cuts point to intensifying headwinds in coming months.
Electronics resilience versus petrochemical weakness
"Singapore’s industrial production (IP) strengthened 4.7% m/m sa and 10.1% y/y in Mar (Feb: −1.2% m/m sa and 3.3% y/y), with 1Q26 manufacturing growth coming in at a strong 7.9% y/y, above the 5.0% y/y posted in the advance estimates (AE). Assuming construction and services activity remained unchanged from the AE, this implies a likely upward revision to 1Q26 GDP growth to around 5.2% y/y, from 4.6% in the AE."
"On a m/m sa basis, the strong outturn was led by a 5.7% m/m sa increase in electronics (Feb: 5.1%) and a 21.8% m/m sa jump in precision engineering (Feb:-13.3%), with the former led by semiconductor segments on the back of robust AI-related demand while the latter reflected higher output of optical instruments, electronic connectors, metal precision components, etc while machinery and systems saw higher production of semiconductor equipment."
"The most striking observation in the Mar IP release was the -18.5% m/m sa plunge in chemicals (Feb: -1.8%), led by petrol (Mar: -13.4%, Feb: -12.5%) and petrochemicals (Mar: -23.9%, Feb: -8.1%) with the EDB release attributing it to “disruptions in feedstock supply”, while news sources have already reported a growing number of refineries and petrochemical companies in Asia cutting runs and some have even declared force majeure"
"Key Takeaway from Mar IP: Headwinds in the petrochemicals segment could intensify in the months ahead as refineries draw down their limited feedstock inventories. Nevertheless, overall IP could continue to hold up, cushioned by strong electronics and semiconductor output amid AI-related tailwinds."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The NZD/USD rebounds as the US Dollar weakens on lower Treasury yields and fading safe-haven demand.
- Geopolitical headlines remain mixed, with Middle East tensions still underpinning uncertainty, but no fresh escalation boosting risk sentiment.
- Markets reassess Fed outlook amid political pressure and shifting rate expectations, weighing on the Greenback and supporting higher-beta currencies.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a firmer tone on Tuesday, hovering near the 0.5910 region as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its recent strength. A modest pullback in United States (US) Treasury yields is undermining the Greenback, allowing the Kiwi to recover despite lingering geopolitical risks.
Market sentiment remains fragile but has shown slight improvement as investors process recent developments in the Middle East. Headlines indicating that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, has stated that the United States has requested negotiations, while Iran assesses the proposal, have alleviated immediate concerns about escalation. This has reduced safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), providing support for risk-sensitive currencies.
At the same time, expectations surrounding US monetary policy are evolving. Ongoing political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, coupled with a more hawkish approach in forward guidance, has led markets to reevaluate the future path of interest rates. This shift is contributing to a softer tone for the USD, even as US economic data remains relatively resilient.
NZD/USD Technical outlook
The 4-hour chart shows NZD/USD is neutral-to-bullish, as the pair holds above all its moving averages, with a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at around 0.5890. The 100 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA, both below the shorter one, providing additional support in case of further retracements. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, but lack directional momentum. Still, indicators suggest that sellers remain out of the picture. Additional gains could be expected on a run beyond 0.5930, the April monthly high.
Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support. They see China tactically tolerating a firmer CNY ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and using it to bolster its image as a stabilizing force while steadily increasing CNY’s role in global trade settlement.
China currency gains on policy support
"All Asian currencies have depreciated against the USD since the end of February except for CNY. They are down on average by 2.2% vs USD while CNY is up 0.5%. Year-to-date (YTD), Asian currencies are down by around 1.1% and the top three performers are MYR (+2.6%), CNY (+2.3%), and SGD (+0.8%)."
"CNY is up 2.3% YTD. Structural headwinds such as overcapacity, ongoing property downturn, and fragile domestic sentiment persist. However, surprisingly robust export performance has provided a fundamental cushion for the CNY. Additionally, other factors are also supporting the currency, including:"
"Geopolitical Signaling: Strength may be a tactical move ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit, which is re-scheduled for 14-15 May. China appears to be tolerating a stronger CNY to distract attention from the large current account surplus, evidenced by the PBoC's consistently stronger mid-point fixing for CNY in the first 11 weeks of this year. Furthermore, China is attempting to position itself as a stable force amid the ongoing Middle East conflict."
"Increased Settlement Share: Confidence is growing as more trade is settled in CNY. The latest global payment data from SWIFT noted that yuan’s share in global payments rose to 3.1% in March 2026 vs 2.7% at the end of 2025. While still trailing the USD (51.1%) and EUR (21.3%), SWIFT only captures part of the picture."
"According to the PBoC, about one-third of China’s global merchandise trade goods was settled in CNY in 2025, up from 20% in 2022. Notably, nearly all of China-Russia trade is settled in CNY, and (contributed about 3-5pp to the trade settled in CNY). CNY's share of China's total cross-border settlements (covering trade, services and financial transactions) reached around 53% in March 2026;"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- New Zealand's hot Q1 CPI print lifted RBNZ May rate hike odds to roughly 60%, with a July move now fully priced.
- The Fed is set to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday in Powell's final meeting before his May 15 chair term ends.
- Thursday's US Core PCE and Q1 GDP data round out the week, with ISM Manufacturing PMI and Iran headlines also in focus.
NZD/USD posted limited gains of around 0.4% on Monday, settling close to 0.5905 but stalling just below the 0.5925 area that capped last week's recovery. The pair has been trapped in the upper bound of a near-term range, with momentum fading near the 0.5900 handle as buyers struggle to extend the rebound. Daily candles continue to print higher lows since the early-April trough at 0.5680, though the rally is showing signs of exhaustion at range highs from earlier this month.
On the New Zealand Dollar side, last week's hotter-than-expected Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print pushed market pricing for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike at the May meeting from below 30% before the release to roughly 60%, with a July move now fully priced. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is feeding through to imported energy costs, and policymakers expect Q2 inflation pressures to intensify as the energy shock filters into the data. RBNZ Deputy Governor Karen Breman's Wednesday speech and Thursday's ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reading are the domestic catalysts ahead of the May meeting, though the RBNZ has previously warned it would act decisively if inflation accelerates further.
On the US Dollar side, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April brings no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to carry the message amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY), and Friday's ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) round out a packed US data calendar. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, with the still-fragile US-Iran ceasefire and ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade providing the backdrop for risk sentiment through the week.
NZD/USD 15-minute chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- The BoJ's April hike pricing collapsed from 18 basis points to near zero, with focus now on a likely June move to 1.00%.
- The Fed is set to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday in Powell's final meeting before his May 15 chair term ends.
- Thursday's Tokyo CPI and US Core PCE data will test the post-decision tone from both central banks.
USD/JPY ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids near 159.40, oscillating in a tight 75-pip range between 159.10 and 159.85. The session produced a cluster of small-bodied candles reflecting indecision ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. Daily candles continue to consolidate just below the 160.00 handle that has capped rallies for the past three weeks.
On the Japanese Yen side, the BoJ is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday after April hike pricing collapsed from 18 basis points at the start of the month to near zero in recent weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda will need to balance cautious commentary on Middle East risks with signals of continued tightening, and markets are now pricing a likely move to 1.00% at the June meeting. Updated forecasts in Tuesday's Outlook Report are expected to lift core inflation projections above the 2.0% target, while Thursday's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, with the ex-fresh food measure forecast at 1.8% YoY, is the next domestic catalyst. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated last week that authorities retain a "free hand" to intervene to stabilize Yen, with the 160.00 handle continuing to act as a soft intervention threshold.
On the US Dollar side, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is similarly expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April carries no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to do the work amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY) are the next major signposts, with ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) closing the week on Friday. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, adding leadership-transition risk to the Dollar's near-term outlook as the Iran ceasefire continues to wobble in the background.
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD advanced as traders welcomed signs of a modest de-escalation.
- Wall Street gains and softer geopolitical fears supported the Aussie.
- Focus now shifts to Australian inflation and the Fed meeting.
The Australian Dollar soars some 0.53% on Monday, with the Greenback staying firm amid uncertainty regarding the outcome of the US-Iran conflict as Washington reviews Tehran’s last proposal to end the war. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7185 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7125.
Aussie rises as Wall Street gains and key Fed meeting looms ahead
Market mood is positive as Wall Street finished Monday’s session modestly in the green while traders brace for the upcoming Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. A slight de-escalation of the Middle East conflict was also cheered by investors awaiting the earnings releases of US mega-cap companies throughout the week.
Iran proposed a three-step negotiation process to Washington to end the conflict. The first step would be to end the war immediately and receive guarantees; the second would be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; and the third would be discussing nuclear issues.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump canceled his envoy’s trip to Pakistan, suggesting it would be a waste of time. Reuters reported that Trump is discussing Iran’s proposal with his top national security aides on Monday, after negotiations stalled last week when Iran failed to attend the talks.
The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday and ends on April 29, will include the unveiling of the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last press conference as the US central bank’s chief.
Jerome Powell is expected to be asked about his future at the Fed. Although his tenure as the Chairman of the Board ends on May 15, his term at the Fed would end on January 31, 2028.
Ahead, Tuesday’s economic docket in Australia would be absent. Yet on Wednesday, traders will eye the release of inflation figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
In the US, the economic docket will feature the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, housing data, and the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence survey for April.
Australian Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this month. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.44% | -2.30% | 0.38% | -2.07% | -3.98% | -2.70% | -1.78% | |
| EUR | 1.44% | -0.86% | 1.89% | -0.64% | -2.60% | -1.33% | -0.36% | |
| GBP | 2.30% | 0.86% | 2.76% | 0.21% | -1.73% | -0.45% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | -0.38% | -1.89% | -2.76% | -2.44% | -4.40% | -3.19% | -2.21% | |
| CAD | 2.07% | 0.64% | -0.21% | 2.44% | -2.02% | -0.78% | 0.30% | |
| AUD | 3.98% | 2.60% | 1.73% | 4.40% | 2.02% | 1.28% | 2.27% | |
| NZD | 2.70% | 1.33% | 0.45% | 3.19% | 0.78% | -1.28% | 1.00% | |
| CHF | 1.78% | 0.36% | -0.52% | 2.21% | -0.30% | -2.27% | -1.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
BNY's Bob Savage reports that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona faces a legal complaint tied to disclosures in an impeachment probe involving the vice president. He argues this heightens political and institutional tensions, raising concerns over governance standards and regulatory independence, with Philippine equities weaker and USD/PHP slightly higher in response.
Governance concerns support currency risk premium
"Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Eli Remolona has been named in a legal complaint filed by the spouse of Vice President Sara Duterte. This intensifies existing political and institutional tensions over the disclosure of bank records during a congressional impeachment probe."
"The complaint alleges violations of banking secrecy, anti-money laundering and data privacy laws, arguing that confidential financial information was released publicly without consent during a televised hearing."
"Authorities maintain that the disclosures were made under subpoena as part of legislative scrutiny into the vice president’s finances, reflecting a deepening rift within the political leadership."
"The case underscores escalating legal risks for institutions and could raise concerns over governance standards, regulatory independence and the handling of sensitive financial data in the Philippines."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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