Forex News
- USD/CHF rose as the US Dollar gained on increased safe-haven demand driven by escalating Middle East tensions.
- Greenback’s upside may be limited amid reports of the US, Iran, and mediators discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire.
- Swiss annual inflation remained close to the SNB’s lower target bound, reducing pressure for policy adjustments.
USD/CHF extends its winning streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8010 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) gained ground amid increased safe-haven demand on heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.
However, the Greenback’s upside may be limited after reports that the United States (US), Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Unnamed sources see low chances of a deal being reached within the next 48 hours, a report from Axios cited by Bloomberg.
Earlier, President Trump set a new Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating threats against its power plants and other civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would remain closed until compensation for war-related damages is secured.
Surging energy prices heighten speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may postpone rate cuts and could even raise borrowing costs later this year if inflationary pressures persist. Market participants are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the central bank’s policy trajectory.
The latest domestic inflation figures eased pressure on the Swiss National Bank to adjust policy. Annual inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year (YoY) in March, the highest in a year, but remains near the lower bound of the SNB’s 0–2% target.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,024.82 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 14,124.55 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 163,584.50 per tola from INR 164,746.00 per tola on friday.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,024.82 |
10 Grams | 140,250.00 |
Tola | 163,584.50 |
Troy Ounce | 436,266.90 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- GBP/USD gains some positive traction as reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire undermine the USD.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
- The bearish technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for further appreciation.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3175 region during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices climb back above the 1.3200 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of the conflict remains in play amid US President Donald Trump's fresh threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which continues to slope lower and cap the broader trend. Adding to this, the momentum has faded after last week’s rebound as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening just under the zero line and showing a marginally negative histogram, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, below the 50 midline, which reinforces a soft downside tone rather than an oversold extreme. Hence, any further move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at 1.3240, with a stronger cap near 1.3300, where recent swing highs converge, and short-term sellers have reappeared. A sustained move above the latter would be needed to challenge the declining 200-period SMA around 1.3370 and start easing the prevailing bearish bias.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent floor around 1.3190, where a break would open the way toward the lower 1.3150 region as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/USD trades with mild gains around 1.1520 in Monday’s early European session.
- The US and Iran explore a 45-day ceasefire ahead of the deadline.
- ECB policymakers emphasized that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the target.
The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1520 during the early European session on Monday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback amid optimism about the US-Iran ceasefire. The US March ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday.
Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios, that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. The source said that the chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low. Earlier, US President Donald Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours, posting a new deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 pm EST (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).
Data on Friday suggested US labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. "Our concern is that with the Middle East conflict showing little sign of coming to an imminent conclusion, an overlay of heightened geopolitical, economic and market angst is not going to incentivise business to suddenly start hiring now," said ING economist James Knightley.
Hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could support the shared currency. The ECB has maintained a firm commitment to combating inflation. President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members have delivered consistent messages, emphasizing that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The United States (US), Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Axios. The people, who were not named, said chances of reaching a deal over the next 48 hours are low.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump extended his deadline by 20 hours, posting a new deadline of Tuesday at 8:00pm EST.
Market reaction
At the time of press, the WTI price is down 0.95% on the day at $102.85.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Asian stock markets open mixed following Trump's threat to target Iran's civilian infrastructure.
- Concerns about Iran's reciprocal attacks on targets in the Gulf states keep investors on edge.
- War-driven inflation fears fuel Fed rate hike bets and also undermine the global risk sentiment.
Asian equity markets opened mixed at the start of a new week as traders remain on edge amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if the vital waterway is not open by Tuesday, if Tehran does not meet his deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday.
Iran, on the other hand, outlined a new condition and said that the transit through the strategic waterway could resume if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate Iran for war-related damages. Adding to this, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that the resistance front could target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea—another critical chokepoint. This fuel worries about a further disruption to key global trade routes and continues to weigh on investors' sentiment.
Meanwhile, persistent geopolitical uncertainties remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, which, in turn, continue to fuel inflationary concerns. Apart from this, the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday removes any near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. Market players, instead, are now pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This turns out to be another factor that undermines the global risk sentiment.
At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi are trading around 1% higher for the day. Meanwhile, Indonesia's IDX Composite and Malaysia's KLCI index are experiencing some downward pressure amid relatively thin liquidity on the back of the Easter Monday Holiday in many global financial markets.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- AUD/USD may find the initial support at the 11-week low of 0.6833.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 43, suggesting mild bullish pressure.
- The pair tests the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918.
AUD/USD holds gains after two days of losses, trading around 0.6910 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening as lower highs and lower lows converge. This structure often reflects a loss of bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a bullish breakout.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 43, suggesting a bearish bias, with momentum slipping below the midline after failing to sustain earlier strength. Moreover, the near-term bias is bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the flatter 50-day EMA.
The initial support lies at the 11-week low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30, followed by the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 0.6810. A break below the wedge would strengthen the bearish bias and open the doors for the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around a deeper 0.6400 rebound support zone.
The AUD/USD pair could find the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6958 around the upper boundary of the wedge. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to test the 0.7187, the highest since June 2022, reached on March 11.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.15% | -0.14% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.14% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.11% | -0.11% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.00% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.10% | -0.01% | 0.24% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.24% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY edges down to near 159.55 as the US Dollar ticks lower.
- US President Trump promises an assault on Iran if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March.
The USD/JPY pair trades marginally down at around 159.55 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The pair shows a subdued performance as the US Dollar (USD) ticks lower, while broadly remaining firm due to threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he will destroy Iranian infrastructure if it doesn’t agree to a deal.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.15.
Over the weekend, US President Trump promised “hell” for Iran’s power plants and bridges, through a post on Truth.Social, if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline, which is Tuesday, April 7, at 8:00 PM Eastern time.
On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be released at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive lower at 55.0 from 56.1 in February.
Meanwhile, fears of escalating Middle East war have also improved the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY).
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY ticks lower at around 159.55 as of writing. However, the near-term bias is bullish as price holds within an ascending channel and consolidates beneath the upper boundary. The pair trades above the 20-day exponential moving average around 158.90, which underpins the advance and aligns with the pattern of higher lows along the channel floor near 158.10.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating positive, though not extreme, momentum that supports ongoing upside pressure while the channel structure is respected.
Initial resistance emerges at 160.45, the recent swing high, with the channel top near 161.00 as the next barrier to extended gains. A clear break above the latter would open the way toward higher psychological levels beyond 162.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 158.90, ahead of the channel base around 158.10, which defines the lower boundary of the current uptrend. A daily close below 158.10 would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement levels toward the mid-157.00s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- EUR/JPY may decline further as Japanese Yen strengthens on expectations the BoJ will tighten policy in April.
- The International Monetary Fund praised Japan’s economic resilience, backing gradual stimulus withdrawal.
- ECB’s Lagarde and policymakers reiterated that policy will stay restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
EUR/JPY moves little after registering modest losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross may extend its decline as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy in April to counter rising inflation driven by higher energy costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed the BoJ’s current path of rate hikes. Following a policy consultation on Friday, the IMF praised Japan’s economic resilience and supported a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus, with inflation projected to converge toward the 2% target by 2027.
However, the JPY faced pressure as oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump escalated threats against Iran. Japan remains particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions due to its heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports.
Trump issued a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while intensifying threats against its power plants and civilian infrastructure. Iranian officials warned of reciprocal retaliation, targeting US-linked infrastructure, and stated the strait would stay closed until war damages are compensated.
Meanwhile, downside in the EUR/JPY cross may be limited as the Euro (EUR) finds support from the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde and other policymakers have reiterated that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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