Forex News
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said late Monday that US monetary policy is now “well positioned” to guide inflation back to target without harming jobs. Williams signaled no urgency to resume interest-rate cuts as the central bank moves closer to a neutral policy stance.
Key quotes
Expects unemployment rate to stabilize this year.
Expects active usage of Federal Reserve repo operations.
Economic outlook is quite favorable in 2026.
Federal Reserve policy decisions will be driven by incoming data. Tariff impacts should diminish in 2026.
Imperative to get inflation back to 2%.
Inflation to peak at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half of year.
Tariff inflation largely borne by Americans.
Outside of tariffs, inflation trends mostly favorable.
Downside job risks increasing as inflation risks have diminished.
Inflation to cool later this year and hit 2% in 2027.
US likely to grow between 2.5% and 2.75% in 2026.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 98.90, down 0.24% on the day.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- GBP/JPY rallies above the 210.00–212.00 range as risk-off sentiment weakens the Yen.
- Bullish breakout targets 213.00 and 213.50, with momentum favoring further upside.
- Support rests at 212.00, then 211.00 and the 20-day SMA near 210.68.
The GBP/JPY rises on Monday, courtesy of a risk-off mood that weighed on safe-haven peers like the Japanese Yen and the Dollar, which are trading softer against most currencies. At the time of writing the cross-pair trade at 212.88 up 0.61%.
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.08% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.07% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.09% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY technical picture is bullish after the pair cleared the top of the 210.00-212.00 trading range, pushing the pair to new yearly highs of 212.93, with buyers eyeing the 213.00 mark. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 213.50 mark, ahead of 214.00.
On the flip side, the GBP/JPY first support would be the 212.00 figure. A breach of the latter would clear the way to challenge 211.00, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 210.68. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at 207.36.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Gold jumps to fresh record highs as charges against Fed Chair Powell shake confidence in US institutions.
- Traders trim Fed cut expectations, but political risk overwhelms rate dynamics, boosting haven demand.
- Iran tensions and Trump’s geopolitical warnings reinforce risk-off flows ahead of key US inflation data.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to new record high past $4,600 on Monday due to safe-haven flows courtesy of the US Department of Justice, which presented charges against the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the building’s renovations. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4606, up more than 2%.
Bullion soars over 2% as legal action against the Fed Chair and rising geopolitical tensions trigger extreme risk aversion.
Risk aversion pushed the non-yielding metal to record high following a headline at the New York Times that “Federal Prosecutors Are Said to Have Opened Inquiry into Fed Chair Powell.”
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell released a video, saying that the threat “is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve building.” He added that the reasons behind the indictment “are pretexts” by the Trump administration.
Powell said that “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
Ahead of the US session open, market participants trimmed their expectations that the Fed will cut rates only 48 basis points, contrary to the 55 bps seen before Wall Street opened.
Geopolitical tensions added to the risk-off mood as Trump warned Iran to not cross the line, as he weighs potential responses to Tehran. This and his comments about Greenland, pushed Bullion towards a record high.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of inflation figures, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, housing data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
Daily digest market movers: Gold surges in tandem with US yields
- Gold price soars even though the US 10-year Treasury yield rises nearly one and a half basis points up at 4.179%.
- Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that December’s Nonfarm Payrolls created 50,000 jobs, undershooting forecasts of 60,000 and easing from the prior 64,000 increase. Despite this, the Unemployment Rate dipped to 4.4% from 4.6%, coming in below expectations of 4.5%, tempering concerns about labor market deterioration.
- US Consumer Sentiment in January, revealed by the University of Michigan Consumer rose to 54 from December’s final 52.9, beating forecasts of 53.5. Inflation expectations for one-year expectations held steady at 4.2%, while five-year expectations climbed to 3.4% from 3.2%.
- Given the backdrop, investors have priced 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Technical analysis: Gold price surges past $4,600, on strong buying
Gold’s technical picture has not changed, with the uptrend remaining in place, further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has turned overbought but not at the most extreme levels of 80, an indication that further upside Is seen it.
If XAU/USD stays above $4,600, the first resistance would be the record high at $4,630, followed by $4,650. A breach of the latter will expose $4,700.
On the downside, a daily close below $4,600, sellers could push the XAU/USD towards $ could embolden sellers to push prices back toward the $4,450 intraday low, with the January 12 daily low of $4,508, followed by $4,450 threshold emerging as the next key downside target.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar (USD) lost some of its shine on Monday, weighed down by renewed concerns over the Fed’s independence as investors seem to have started to pencil in a (more?) dovish Fed in the upcoming months. Prudence among market participants also kicked in ahead of the release of the key US CPI on Tuesday.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, January 13:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) came under fresh selling pressure, leaving behind four consecutive days of gains and briefly slipping back to the 98.70 region. The Inflation Rate will take centre stage, seconded by the NFIB Business Optimism Index, the ADP Employment Change Weekly, New Home Sales, and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. In addition, the Fed’s Williams, Musalem and Barkin are due to speak.
EUR/USD found some respite from its recent steep retracement, advancing to the boundaries of the 1.1700 barrier. Next on tap on the domestic calendar will be the German Full Year GDP Growth, followed by Industrial Production and the Balance of Trade in the broader Euroland, all due on January 15.
GBP/USD rose sharply largely in response to the renewed weakness hurting the Greenback, refocusing its attention on the 1.3500 level. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is due next across the Channel.
USD/JPY extended its leg higher, once again surpassing the 158.00 hurdle amid the widespread improvement in the risk complex. The Current Account results will be released alongside Bank Lending figures and the Eco Watchers Survey.
AUD/USD set aside part of its recent weakness, managing to reclaim the key 0.6700 barrier. The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index will be next on tap in Oz.
WTI prices traded on the positive foot at the beginning of the week amid jitters over potential supply disruptions in Iran while traders continued to evaluate developments from Venezuela.
Gold prices advanced for the third day in a row on Monday, reaching at the same time an all-time top around $4,630 per troy ounce. The move higher in the precious metal came on the back of renewed selling pressure on the Greenback and the pick-up in geopolitical effervescence in the Middle East. Silver prices followed suit, advancing past the $85.00 mark per ounce for the first time in history.
- AUD/USD snaps a three-day losing streak as broad US Dollar weakness lifts the pair.
- Concerns over Fed independence weigh on the Greenback after reports of a DOJ probe involving Chair Powell.
- RBA-Fed policy divergence and hawkish Australian rate expectations provide additional support to the Aussie.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with AUD/USD snapping a three-day losing streak as broad-based weakness in the Greenback lifts the pair. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades around 0.6714, up nearly 0.35% on the day.
The US Dollar comes under renewed selling pressure after reports that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) issued grand jury subpoenas as part of a criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, raising fresh concerns over political pressure on the central bank.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against six major peers, is trading around 98.88 after retreating from one-month highs.
Powell stood his ground, saying the action is politically motivated and that the Fed must continue to set policy based on economic conditions rather than political pressure.
On the monetary policy front, growing policy divergence between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps AUD/USD tilted to the upside.
The Fed remains on a gradual easing path after last week’s mixed US labour-market data trimmed expectations for a near-term rate cut, although traders continue to expect a total of around 50 basis points (bps) of easing this year.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Tuesday for further clues on the Fed’s policy outlook, while also parsing remarks from key Fed officials throughout the week.
In Australia, markets are increasingly anticipating that the RBA’s next move could be a rate hike, as the latest inflation data show price pressure remains above the central bank’s 2-3% target band.
In a recent interview with ABC News, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said it was “still true” that Australians had likely seen the last rate cuts this cycle. Meanwhile, an Australian Financial Review survey showed that 17 of 38 economists now expect at least two rate hikes over the next 18 months.
On the data front, the Australian economic calendar remains relatively light this week, with Westpac Consumer Confidence scheduled for Tuesday and Consumer Inflation Expectations due on Thursday. Markets will also track China’s trade data on Wednesday, as developments in exports and imports often influence the Aussie due to Australia’s close economic ties with China.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- The US Dollar retreats amid renewed political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve.
- Jerome Powell’s comments revive concerns over US monetary policy independence.
- The New Zealand central bank’s still-restrictive stance supports the New Zealand Dollar.
NZD/USD advances and trades around 0.5770 on Monday, up 0.60% on the day at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as renewed concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the pair. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which could provide fresh direction to the market.
Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve intensified over the weekend after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he had been threatened with a criminal indictment related to the renovation works at the central bank’s Washington headquarters. Powell described these threats as a pretext aimed at pressuring the institution into cutting interest rates.
These remarks have revived fears of political interference and weighed on the credibility of the US institutional framework, putting downward pressure on the US Dollar. In this context, Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy at National Australia Bank, noted that this open confrontation between the US administration and the Fed is clearly a negative factor for the Greenback.
The US Dollar is also undermined by expectations of further monetary easing in the United States (US). Recent labor market data reinforce this view, with job creation falling short of expectations in December. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 50,000, compared with 56,000 in the previous month and below market forecasts, while the Unemployment Rate edged down slightly to 4.4%. This backdrop fuels bets on additional rate cuts, adding to downside pressure on the USD.
On the New Zealand side, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) relatively hawkish stance provides support to the New Zealand Dollar. The central bank has indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be complete, although the possibility of further easing remains if economic performance falls short of projections. Most economists expect the policy rate to remain unchanged for much of 2026, with the first rate hikes not anticipated until late 2026 or early 2027.
In the background, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain an additional risk factor. Threats from US President Donald Trump regarding possible repercussions in the event of attacks on civilians, along with warnings from Tehran directed at the United States and Israel, could revive demand for safe-haven assets. In such a scenario, the US Dollar could temporarily regain some support, potentially limiting further upside in NZD/USD.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.42% | 0.14% | -0.27% | -0.37% | -0.59% | -0.44% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | -0.14% | 0.41% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.31% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.42% | 0.14% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.41% | -0.55% | -0.40% | -0.50% | -0.72% | -0.57% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 0.40% | -0.09% | -0.31% | -0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.37% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.50% | 0.09% | -0.23% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.59% | 0.31% | 0.17% | 0.72% | 0.31% | 0.23% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.44% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.57% | 0.18% | 0.08% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- Silver hits a record $86.23 as Powell indictment revives fears over Fed credibility and policy stability.
- Parabolic rally pushes RSI into overbought territory, though momentum remains firmly bullish for now.
- Upside targets sit at $86.50 and $87.00, while $85.50 marks key near-term support.
Silver (XAG/USD) rally extends for the second straight day on Monday, with buyers pushing prices to a new record high of $86.23 a troy ounce, posting daily gains of nearly 7.50%, courtesy of the US Department of Justice, which has indicted the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, over the renovations of the Fed’s buildings. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $85.90.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver’s daily chart shows a parabolic move, further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning overbought. Nevertheless, due to the strength of the uptrend, RSI’s most extreme overbought level would be the 80 threshold.
If XAG/USD clears the $86.00 level, the next immediate resistance would be $86.50. A breach of the latter would expose $87.00.
Conversely, if Silver slides below $85.50, the next support would be $85.00, followed by the latest cycle high hit on December 29 at $83.75.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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