Forex News
Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu expects India’s April headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to rise to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.4% in March, driven by food-and-beverages and fuel components. He highlights conflict-related energy shocks, supply-chain stress in vegetables and edible oils, and emerging pipeline risks from fertilisers, El Niño-linked weather and low dam storage as key upside threats to India’s inflation outlook.
Food, fuel and weather risks lift CPI
"We expect India’s headline CPI inflation for April to print at 3.9% yoy, a notable step-up from 3.4% yoy in March. We attribute this rise to conflict-related price pressures and a renewed firming in food-and-beverages (F&B) and fuel-linked components after a benign stretch. While inflation would still be within the RBI’s tolerance band, the upward drift reflects the first clear pickup that emerged in March, largely driven by these two channels."
"The near-term narrative begins with food, given its outsized weight in the CPI basket and the fact that recent month-to-month volatility has been led by perishables and key cooking inputs. There is a visible firming in select vegetables (e.g., tomatoes and cauliflower), and there is a meaningful risk that broader supply-chain stress could begin to filter into the overall food bill. Historically, when vegetable and edible oil prices rise in tandem, the impulse tends to become more broad-based within food (fresh and processed), reinforcing food inflation as a key propagation channel into headline CPI."
"We expect the April CPI print to offer a clearer read on the energy impulse, even though India’s administered fuel pricing may mute immediate retail transmission. That said, while the operation Epic Fury may be over, true economic pain will manifest in the months ahead. Over time, however, inflationary effects can still surface through (i) LPG and household fuel adjustments, and (ii) higher freight and input costs that gradually feed into goods and services pricing."
"Beyond immediate food/fuel prints, we are monitoring pipeline risks, notably fertilisers and imported agricultural input prices, as these would likely shape inflationary expectations of households over the coming month. This is especially relevant as the economy faces triple whammy of i) costly and sparse availability of fertilisers, ii) heatwave and potential monsoon failure exacerbated by among the strongest El Niño seen in recent history and iii) a sharply lower water storage capacity in major dams."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
US President Donald Trump is meeting with his national security team on Monday, considering the possibility of resuming military action against Iran, as Tehran’s response fell short of complying with Washington’s demands, three officials said to Axios.
According to Axios, US officials expressed that Trump wants a deal to end the conflict, but Iran’s response put back the military option on the table.
Iran’s media reported that the regime rejected the US proposal, saying that it “meant Iran’s surrender to Trump’s excessive demands.”
The report revealed that the White House has different options. One is to resume Project Freedom; the second one is to resume “the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the US military identified but hasn't hit yet.”
Another option, which is one Israelis want, is for Trump to order a special forces operation to get Iran’s enriched uranium inventory. However, Israeli officials said Trump is hesitant because it is a highly risky operation.
Market’s reaction to the headline
WTI Oil rose by almost $1 from around $98.87 to $99.83, as a resumption of hostilities puts pressure on Oil prices and pushes inflation higher.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Gold recovers after opening the week with a bearish gap amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty.
- Oil-driven inflation fears continue to support the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, weighing on the non-yielding metal.
- Technically, XAU/USD maintains a near-term bullish bias while holding above the Bollinger mid-band support.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm after filling the week’s bearish opening gap, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD). However, the precious metal lacks strong upside momentum as persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran war continues to fuel Oil-driven inflation fears, maintaining pressure on central banks to keep borrowing costs elevated.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,717 after touching an intraday high of $4,748.
Nuclear disagreements keep US-Iran talks deadlocked
US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that he would meet with his national security team to discuss the Iran war. Trump also warned that the ceasefire is “on massive life support” and described it as “weak” after rejecting Iran’s latest response to the US-backed peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable” in a post on Truth Social.
Iranian state media said Tehran’s proposal included demands for US compensation for war damages and stressed Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Tehran was only trying to secure its rights and had offered “generous and responsible” suggestions to the US. Baghaei also said the proposal by his country was not excessive and accused Washington of making “unreasonable demands.”
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, talks remain unresolved over Iran’s nuclear program, raising uncertainty over how long the US-Iran war could continue. This has heightened fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices.
Gold struggles as higher-for-longer rate expectations weigh on sentiment
Soaring Oil prices are reinforcing expectations that major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), may have to keep interest rates higher for longer and could even consider raising rates again if inflation pressure intensifies.
Investors are now awaiting the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Tuesday, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy path. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.6% MoM in April, slowing from the 0.9% increase in March. On an annual basis, inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3.7% YoY from 3.3% previously.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders largely expect the Fed to keep borrowing costs unchanged for the rest of the year, though markets are pricing in a small chance of a rate hike at the December meeting, with the probability standing around 20%.
A higher interest rate environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold because the precious metal does not offer any yield or interest. When borrowing costs remain elevated, investors often shift toward interest-bearing assets such as government bonds and other fixed-income instruments.
Against this backdrop, Gold’s upside remains capped. Still, downside pressure remains limited as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, while steady central bank, retail and investment buying continues to provide underlying support for the precious metal.
Technical analysis: Upper Bollinger-band caps recovery attempts near $4,750
Technical Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD metal holds above the 20-period Bollinger Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,707, keeping a near-term bullish bias intact as price pushes toward the upper band resistance near $4,751. A firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 suggests positive momentum but shy of overbought territory, while an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 25 hints at a trend that is present but not yet strongly directional.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band around $4,751, where upside attempts could face profit-taking. On the downside, initial support emerges at the mid-Bollinger SMA near $4,707, with the lower band around $4,664 providing a deeper cushion if a corrective pullback unfolds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- DJIA futures trade flat as traders digest Trump's rejection of Iran's latest ceasefire counterproposal.
- Oil prices jump more than 2% with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut.
- Markets brace for Tuesday's April CPI, the single most important macro print of the week.
US equity index futures opened the week little changed as Wall Street weighed a renewed flare-up in the US-Iran standoff against this week's marquee inflation print. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures hugged the flat line above 49,500 in premarket trade, with the S&P 500 ticking marginally lower and the Nasdaq Composite softer after Friday's record-setting close. The Russell 2000 outperformed, helped by a bid for energy and small-cap industrials.
Trump rejects Iran offer, Oil spikes
President Trump on Sunday torpedoed Iran's response to the latest US ceasefire proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable" on social media and warning that the truce was on "massive life support." Tehran's counter-proposal reportedly included recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a demand for war reparations, alongside a refusal to dismantle nuclear enrichment infrastructure. With the waterway still effectively closed after 10 weeks, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallied more than 2% toward $97 a barrel, while Brent pushed above $103. Drone attacks on Kuwait, the UAE, and a cargo ship in Qatari waters over the weekend kept the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in energy markets.
April CPI takes center stage
Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the only macro print that really matters this week. Consensus calls for headline CPI to rise 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY in April, with core CPI at 0.4% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The release will offer the first clean read on how much of the Oil shock has bled into non-energy categories. A core surprise above 0.4% would all but bury what little is left of 2026 rate-cut hopes; CME FedWatch currently pegs the probability of a hold at next month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting above 95%, with markets pricing essentially no cuts for the rest of the year. Bank of America has formally scrapped its 2026 cut call, while JPMorgan expects YoY inflation to stay above 3% well into 2027.
Intel jumps on Apple chip deal
Intel (INTC) led the premarket gainers, rallying as much as 6% after the Wall Street Journal reported the chipmaker had reached a preliminary agreement with Apple (AAPL) to manufacture some of the chips used in Apple devices. The news lifted the broader semiconductor complex, with Micron Technology (MU) up more than 3% and South Korea's SK Hynix surging 12% on separate reports of a potential Samsung worker strike that could tighten memory supply. Apple ticked higher in sympathy, while Lumentum (LITE) gained around 4% after being added to the Nasdaq-100 Index. Nvidia (NVDA) traded firmer as the AI complex continued to set the tone for index direction.
Moderna spikes on hantavirus angle, Palantir slips
Moderna (MRNA) was among the biggest single-name movers, jumping as much as 12% after US health officials reported a passenger on a repatriation flight had tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirus. The biotech confirmed it had already been developing a hantavirus vaccine candidate ahead of the outbreak aboard the cruise ship Hondius, building on a 12% rally on Friday. On the other side of the tape, Palantir (PLTR) fell more than 2% on lingering valuation concerns following last week's Q1 print, while Wendy's (WEN) dropped around 3% after JPMorgan cut the burger chain to Underweight with a sharply lower price target.
Powell exits, Warsh waits in the wings
Adding to the macro stew, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's term formally ends Friday. The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as his successor this week, marking the first Fed Chair transition since 2018. Markets have so far shrugged off the handover, partly because the April FOMC minutes already showed three members objecting to the policy statement language and Governor Miran dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point cut. Whether Warsh proves more or less hawkish than Powell is largely academic in the near term, with a hot CPI virtually guaranteed to keep the Fed on hold regardless of who occupies the chair. Separately, Trump heads to Beijing from Wednesday through Friday for a summit with Xi Jinping, where the Iran war and AI export controls are expected to dominate the agenda.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said that Iran’s proposal was “stupid” and that they agreed on his terms, but then reversed on them. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.
Key takeaways:
Iran's proposal is a stupid proposal.
Iranians said US can have nuclear material but would have to take it out.
Iran agrees with US, then reverses itself.
Iran did not mention not pursuing nuclear weapon in letter.
I am very disappointed in the Kurds.
Ceasefire is on life support.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.24% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.00% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.16% | 0.15% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.04% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.32% | -0.00% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.36% | -0.22% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.32% | -0.05% | 0.05% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.00% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.22% | -0.05% | -0.14% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.22% | 0.11% | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- WTI rises to around $94.70 on Monday, up 3.18% on the day after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal.
- Fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz are supporting Oil prices and reviving concerns over global supply.
- Strong Chinese trade data boosts expectations of firmer energy demand from the world’s second-largest economy.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil posts strong gains on Monday, with the US benchmark trading around $94.70 at the time of writing, up 3.18% on the day after opening the week with a significant bullish gap. The Oil market is reacting to deteriorating prospects for a quick agreement between the United States (US) and Iran, which is reviving concerns about global energy supply.
The bullish move accelerated after US President Donald Trump described Tehran’s latest response to the US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable”. The statement reduced hopes for a lasting ceasefire and a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which nearly 20% of the world’s Oil supply transits.
According to Iranian state media, Tehran is demanding financial compensation for war damages, the lifting of sanctions, and recognition of its authority around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, tensions remain elevated in the region following Iranian accusations regarding US attacks on Oil tankers over the weekend.
Comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also maintained geopolitical concerns, as he stated that the conflict would not end until Iran’s enriched uranium is eliminated, a condition rejected by Tehran.
Societe Generale analysts believe that a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately translate into relief for global supply. The bank noted that the normalization of Oil flows and shipping traffic could take several weeks, thereby maintaining tensions in the physical Crude market.
On the macroeconomic front, the latest Chinese trade data is also supporting Oil prices. The figures released on Monday suggest improving activity in the world’s second-largest economy, fuelling expectations of stronger energy demand in the coming months.
However, prospects of a prolonged restrictive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit Oil’s upside potential. Strong recent US labor market data has reduced expectations of rapid interest rate cuts, an environment that could restrain consumption and fuel demand.
Reuters reported on Monday that Donald Trump said he wants to temporarily suspend the 18-cent federal gasoline tax, a move that could help ease pressure on consumers amid elevated fuel prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Labour Party election losses fuel speculation over Starmer’s leadership.
- UK 30-year Gilt yields jump amid fiscal policy concerns.
- US-Iran tensions keep the USD supported ahead of US inflation data.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds modestly firm against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Monday, down a minimal 0.06% as pressure mounts on the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer as his party sustained losses in local elections. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3625 after hitting a daily high of 1.3630.
Pound holds near highs as UK political risks intensify
The UK PM Starmer said, “I know that people are frustrated by the state of Britain. Frustrated by politics, and some people frustrated with me.” Regarding Starmer's speech, Catherine West, a Labour MP who is threatening to launch a leadership campaign, commented that Starmer’s relaunch speech was “too little too late”.
West said that she would collect names of Labour MPs “to call on the prime minister to set out a timetable for the election of a new leader in September,” according to the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD seems contained amid increasing speculation that Starmer could be ousted in September. Consequently, the UK 30-year GILT yield soared by over 10 basis points to 5.675%, spurred by fears that Great Britain could lean more to the left.
US Dollar remains bid on geopolitics
Also, rising tensions in the Middle East prompted traders to buy the US Dollar as Iran’s response to the US 14-point memo was seen by Trump as “totally unacceptable.”
Data in the US Existing Home Sales rose less than expected in April, up 0.2% MoM, at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The data was largely ignored by market participants, who are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales data in the US. In the UK, traders eye the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3648. The pair holds well above a dense cluster of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 1.3400, keeping the broader bias bullish as the recent breakout extends away from the former descending resistance trend line, which now acts as a secondary floor. The upward-sloping support trend line traced from 1.3035 continues to underpin the advance, while the latest readings from the FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index, which has pushed to fresh highs, hint that external policy expectations may be reinforcing sterling’s constructive tone against the dollar.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the recent breakout area around 1.36, ahead of the rising support trend line currently intersecting close to 1.3500. A deeper pullback would expose the key demand band formed by the converging 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered just above 1.3400, where the former descending resistance line also converges, and which should act as a robust base while the bullish daily trend remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.25% | -0.08% | -0.16% | 0.00% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.17% | -0.17% | -0.21% | -0.06% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.34% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.17% | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.37% | -0.22% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.17% | -0.02% | 0.32% | -0.05% | 0.05% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.07% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | -0.00% | 0.06% | -0.09% | 0.22% | -0.05% | -0.15% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.13% | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD recovers despite renewed tensions in the Middle East.
- Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal, reviving concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
- Markets now focus on Tuesday’s US CPI report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
AUD/USD surges toward the 0.7260 region on Monday, supported by improving demand for commodity-linked currencies despite renewed geopolitical tensions after United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”
The rejection of the proposal revived concerns about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and about extended disruptions to global Oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Trump told Fox News he was considering relaunching his initiative to have US naval ships escort tankers through the Strait, a policy he curtailed last week after Iran fired warning shots. Oil prices surged following the headlines, increasing fears of renewed inflationary pressure and keeping markets cautious.
Investors are now turning their attention toward Tuesday’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could provide fresh signals on the inflation outlook and the Fed’s next policy steps.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7255, holding a constructive bullish bias as it clings to a nearby horizontal pivot while staying above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7237 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7183. The Relative Strength Index lifts toward the low-60s, suggesting firm but not overextended upside momentum as price tests a key cap just overhead.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the horizontal barrier near 0.7260, where a clear break would open room for further gains. On the downside, initial support emerges at 0.7249, followed by 0.7243, with the 20-period SMA at 0.7237 and the deeper 100-period SMA at 0.7183 reinforcing the broader bullish structure on pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is slightly softer versus the Dollar (USD), struggling against resistance in the upper 1.17s as softer European Central Bank (ECB) expectations weigh, partly offset by better risk sentiment. They flag upcoming ZEW data and ECB speeches as key event risks. Technically, they describe a bullish setup, eyeing Fibonacci resistance and a defined near-term trading range.
Euro bias stays constructive above 1.17
"The EUR is soft, down a modest 0.2% vs. the USD as it struggles to extend its latest recovery with resistance observed in the upper-1.17s. The recent softening in ECB rate expectations has eroded some of the EUR’s fundamental support however this has been offset by the improvement in broader market sentiment."
"Fundamental releases have been limited and market participants are eyeing Tuesday’s market-moving ZEW data – a leading indicator for industrial production in the euro area. Headline risk lies with Wednesday’s speeches from both ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane. "
"Bullish – the technical setup remains bullish with an RSI in the upper 50s that confirms the broader recovery from the March low."
"The retracement of the Jan-March decline remains the most important feature of the medium-term chart, as we look to near-term resistance at the 61.8% Fibo at 1.1825 ahead of a full retracement to the January high around 1.2080."
"We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1720 and 1.1820."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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