Forex News
- Silver rebounds from $63.00, or an over-three-week low, which it touched earlier this Friday.
- The upside potential seems limited as traders keenly await the release of the US CPI report.
- The bearish technical setup suggests that the recovery attempt is more likely to be sold into.
Silver (XAG/USD) finds some support near the $63.00 mark and stages a modest intraday recovery from an over three-week low, touched earlier this Friday. The white metal retakes the $64.00 round figure during the early European session, though the upside potential seems limited as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures.
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone following the overnight breakdown below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, around $64.71. The subsequent fall, however, stalls near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August upswing, around the $63.00 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.46 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading at -0.38 on H4 hint that downside momentum is still dominant despite the recent bounce from oversold territory. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.
In the meantime, initial resistance appears at the 200-period SMA around $64.71, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $64.91 and then the 23.6% retracement near $67.27. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 50.0% retracement at $62.99, ahead of the deeper 61.8% level at $61.08. A break there would expose the 78.6% retracement at $58.36, with the cycle low area near $54.89 as a more distant bearish objective.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said during the European trading session on Friday, “Britain’s economy is demonstrating a welcome resilience, despite serious global uncertainty.”
These comments from UK Chancellor Healey have come after the release of the stronger-than-expected monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for July. The data showed that the economy exoanded at a 0.4% faster than estimates of a flat performance.
Market Reaction
There has been a slight appreciation in the British Pound (GBP) following UK Healey remarks. As of writing, GBP/USD trades 0.1% higher to near 1.3525.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Danske Research Team reports that Norwegian core inflation rose to 3.0% year-on-year in August, below Norges Bank’s June projection of 3.3%. This points to a lower rate path, cutting implied future hikes, while weaker growth and a stronger Norwegian Krone contrast with higher global rate expectations. The bank now sees the September decision as a close call and expects Norges Bank to stay on hold.
Lower core CPI tempers hike path
"In Norway, core inflation rose to 3.0% y/y in August close to our expectation of 3.1% (Cons.: 3.0% Prior: 2.7%). This is well below Norges Bank's estimate from the June MPR at 3.3%. In isolation, this suggests a lower rate path, moving from signalling around 1.5 further hikes to roughly 0.5 hike."
"Other factors are mixed: growth is weaker and NOK is stronger, but global rate expectations are higher. Overall, the September rate decision looks like a close call."
"Unless the regional survey on 17 September surprises to the upside, market pricing ahead of the meeting may be decisive. The probability of a September hike fell on this datapoint."
"Following the lower-than-expected Norwegian inflation print yesterday, we now expect Norges Bank to stay on hold in September."
"Despite the sharply higher oil price, EUR/NOK climbed higher towards 10.80 and the recent NOK rally increasingly looks exhausted."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY's rebound from 152.85 lows has failed to find acceptance above 154.60.
- The Dollar appreciated on Thursday as PPI data boosted hopes of a Fed rate hike next week.
- Crude Oil's rally adds pressure on Japan's economic growth and is acting as a headwind for JPY recovery.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trimming some losses after a moderate reversal on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair struggles to remain above 154.00 on Friday after bouncing from seven-month lows below 153.00 earlier this week, still on track for a 1.4% weekly decline. The pair broke key support in the 155.20 area, which is likely to pose significant resistance for USD bulls.
The Greenback regained some lost ground on Thursday as US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures confirmed that the energy shock is boosting inflationary pressures and provided further reasons for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy at next week’s meeting. Markets have ramped up expectations of a rate hike next week, but they await US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, due later on Friday, for confirmation.
Apart from that, Oil prices have rallied further as the situation in the Gulf complicates. Brent Oil is trading at four-month highs, well above $100, after rallying beyond 15% in the last two weeks. These prices pose strong pressure on the Japanese economy and act as a headwind for further Yen appreciation.
Technical Analysis: Dollar broke the neckline of a bearish H&S formation
USD/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias after dropping nearly 4% over the last two weeks. Immediate price action shows a corrective reaction from oversold levels, but the pair broke the neckline of a large bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern at 155.20 earlier this week, which is a common figure highlighting trend shifts.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart remain deeply within bearish levels, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) well below zero, which suggests that rallies are likely to find sellers.
On the upside, bulls will meet resistance at the mentioned 155.20 area (August 2, September 3 lows), ahead of the August 4 high, at 156.76 and the August 19, 20 lows, near 158.00. Key support is at the January 27 low of 152.10, and below here, the October 17, 2025 lows near 149.50. The H&S's measured target is at the early October lows, near 146.60.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.20% | -0.55% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.62% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.04% | 0.12% | -0.14% | -0.50% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.18% | -0.07% | -0.46% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.63% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.25% | -0.37% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.55% | 0.62% | 0.50% | 0.46% | 0.63% | 0.37% | 0.68% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.68% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF has broken higher toward 0.8147, with overbought but still constructive momentum suggesting scope to test 0.8155 intraday. On a one-to-three-week view, a clear break and close above 0.8155 could extend gains toward 0.8175, while support is seen around 0.8085.
Overbought but still room to climb
"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we indicated that USD “could trade between 0.8075 and 0.8115.” We did not expect USD to soar to a high of 0.8147 during the NY session. While overbought, the advance in USD has scope to test 0.8155 before levelling off. A sustained rise above this level appears unlikely. On the downside, a breach of 0.8105 (minor support is at 0.8115) would mean that USD is likely to consolidate rather than test 0.8155."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (07 Sep, spot at 0.8100), we highlighted that, for the time being, we expect USD to trade in a range between 0.8055 and 0.8155. Yesterday (10 Sep, spot at 0.8100), we stated that “we continue to expect range-trading, but a narrower range of 0.8060/0.8135 is likely enough to contain the price movements in USD for now.” USD subsequently rose to a high of 0.8147. Upward momentum is starting to build, and if USD breaks and closes above 0.8155, it could continue to rise toward 0.8175. The odds of USD breaking clearly above 0.8155 will remain intact as long as USD holds above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 0.8085."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Russian central bank to keep its key rate at 14.0%, arguing inflation fundamentals do not justify further easing despite weak growth. He notes analysts’ inflation forecasts have risen, fuel and currency pressures persist, and President Putin now frames the high rate as a stability tool, suggesting political signals also favour a pause while RUB trades beyond Commerzbank’s year-end targets.
Policy pause likely with sticky RUB
"The Russian central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision later today: market consensus is divided between an unchanged key rate of 14.0% and another “token” 25bp rate cut. We lean towards unchanged, which is also the median consensus result. In our view, a further cut would be difficult to justify because inflation fundamentals do not allow for more easing, and we are confident that CBR thinks so too."
"The latest CBR survey showed analysts raising their end-2026 inflation forecast to 6.6% from 6.2% in July and 5.3% in June. Inflation expectations are running much faster near the c.14% mark."
"A supportive argument for lower rates would be the weaker GDP growth numbers in latest readings and also falling survey expectations. But that still does not make it a benign combination: gasoline prices were up by nearly 1%w/w in its latest reading, while the weaker ruble adds another channel of inflation pressure. CBR’s own rhetoric has turned more hawkish too, highlighting secondary effects from higher fuel price, the weaker ruble, and fiscal risks."
"The political angle has also shifted. President Vladimir Putin remarked that the high key rate remains a deliberate tool for macroeconomic stability. This matters because, ahead of at least the previous two meetings, Putin had indicated that rate cuts would be desirable in Russia’s prevailing macroeconomic context."
"RUB has already depreciated past our year-end targets. Given its recent historical pattern, this valuation is likely to prove sticky for some months regardless of today’s rate decision, while the artificial USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates will not react meaningfully to a 25bp difference either way."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- UK Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.4% month-over-month in July, beating expectations of flat growth.
- UK Manufacturing production increased by 0.9% in July, boosting broader economic output data alongside industrial production.
- Japanese Yen gains support from Bank of Japan tightening expectations despite escalating oil price risks.
GBP/JPY depreciates after registering gains in the previous day, trading around 208.30 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross loses ground as the British Pound (GBP) remains subdued against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the release of key economic data from the United Kingdom (UK).
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4% month-over-month in July, outperforming market expectations for a flat 0% growth and building upon the 0.3% expansion recorded in June. In addition to the strong GDP figures, broader economic output data showed positive momentum, with monthly Industrial Production rising by 0.2% and Manufacturing Production increasing by 0.9% over the same period.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw support from growing expectations of more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside the ongoing unwinding of carry trades and increased capital repatriation. However, the currency's upside potential remains constrained. Surging oil prices, fueled by persistent conflict between the US and Iran with no signs of de-escalation, are keeping global inflation risks elevated and weighing on broader market sentiment.
BoJ seen lifting rates again as ING flags persistent price pressures
Economists at ING expect the Bank of Japan to press ahead with further policy normalisation this week, forecasting that the BoJ will “raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on Friday amid persistent price pressures.” They argue that ongoing inflation dynamics justify another step away from ultra-loose settings, reinforcing expectations that Japan’s rate cycle is gradually shifting onto a more conventional tightening path.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- NZD/USD gains momentum to near 0.5835 in Friday’s early European session.
- Traders raised the odds for a quarter-percentage-point increase to more than 70% following hotter PPI data.
- Dovish signals from the RBNZ might cap the upside for the New Zealand Dollar.
The NZD/USD pair rises to around 0.5835, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early European trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited as markets turn cautious ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later on Friday.
Markets pushed the probability for a US rate increase to 70% following a report showing increasing Producer Price Index (PPI) in August, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Traders will take more cues from the US CPI data later in the day. This report will be the last piece of the inflation puzzle the Federal Reserve (Fed) will get before making its decision on interest rates next week. The headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 3.4% in August, while the core CPI is projected to show an increase of 2.4% during the same period.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a dovish rate hike, raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%. The New Zealand central bank said that the current rate remains accommodative, and the bank is focused on a "gradual removal of monetary stimulus".
Economists widely expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year, likely in December. The RBNZ’s cautious tone and forward guidance have dampened market expectations for an aggressive tightening cycle, which could weigh on the Kiwi.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD remains capped below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, NZD/USD holds a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger mid-line. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 43 leans toward weak downside momentum rather than oversold conditions, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand unless price can reclaim the nearby moving average resistance.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the lower Bollinger band at 0.5800; a clear break below this zone would open the door to a deeper slide toward prior lows beyond the current dataset. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 0.5842, followed by the Bollinger mid-line near 0.5900, with the upper band around 0.6000 acting as a more distant barrier that would need to give way to neutralize the prevailing bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- The Australian Dollar bounces back to near 0.7175 against the US Dollar.
- Hot US PPI report for August has boosted hawkish Fed bets.
- The RBA is expected to deliver more interest rate hikes this year.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 0.22% at around 0.7175 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair recovers strongly after a significant fall the previous day, driven by a significant jump in the US Dollar, following strong United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August.
The data showed on Thursday that headline producer inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 5.3% Year-on-Year (YoY). The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – grew by 4.6%, as expected.
A hot US PPI report prompted hawkish Fed expectations ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, releasing at 12:30 GMT.
On the Aussie front, financial markets seem confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates again this year, following warnings of upside inflation risks from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on Tuesday.
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the RBA’s policy tone has shifted after “Hauser [gave] a hawkish speech, which has markets thinking of hikes this month and in November.”
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD trades at 0.7174, holding a constructive bullish tone as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7159.
The formation of a positive divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has set a strong recovery.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 0.7160, followed by 0.7100. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the four-year high near 0.7280.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Sep 11, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.4%
Previous: 3.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
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