Forex News
- GBP/USD flat lines near 1.3465 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- BoE’s rates are expected to continue on a gradual downward path.
- Most Fed officials said that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declines over time.
The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3465 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the Bank of England (BoE) guided that monetary policy will remain on a gradual downward path, which might underpin the Cable against the US Dollar (USD). Financial markets are expected to trade on thin volumes as traders prepare for the New Year holiday.
The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates from 4.0% to 3.75% at its December policy meeting, the lowest level in nearly three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, but "how much further we go becomes a closer call" with each cut. Money markets believe the UK central bank will deliver at least one rate reduction in the first half of the year and are pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a second before the year-end, according to Reuters.
On the USD’s front, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. FOMC Minutes released on Tuesday revealed that most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to stand on further rate cuts if inflation declined over time.
Meanwhile, some Fed officials said it might be best to leave rates unchanged for a while after the committee made three rate reductions this year to support the weakening labor market. Following the FOMC minutes’ release, markets are now pricing in nearly an 85% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY failed to make any meaningful moves on Tuesday as holiday trading volumes bite.
- Yentervention risk remains elevated with the Yen drifting toward previous intervention levels.
- Even rate hikes from the hyperdovish BoJ couldn’t spark a bullish Yen rally.
USD/JPY remains caught in near-term congestion just north of the 156.00 handle during the final week of 2025’s trading year. Yen traders are battling headwinds on multiple fronts, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) carrying much of the vexation risk for Yen markets.
The BoJ broke away from the pack as the only central bank raising interest rates heading into the end of the year after delivering another quarter-point interest rate hike on December 19. Further rate hikes. The current cash rate from the BoJ currently sits at a three-decade peak of 0.75%.
Even with climbing Japanese interest rates, the world’s favorite funding currency remains unable to find meaningful strength. The Dollar-Yen pair has risen nearly 12% from its annual low of 139.89 set in April, and is set to end 2025 close to where it began, near technical levels that have sparked previous currency market interventions from the BoJ.
Fed sees more cuts, but only if data plays ball
The latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) show Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are cautiously tilted toward the dovish side, with the majority of policymakers expecting further rate cuts in the future; however, the pace of future rate cuts remains contingent on several factors, specifically that US inflation metrics continue to ease lower.
Quality of American inflation data remains a concern for both investors and central bankers: despite a steep cooling in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data at the last print, investors noted that the underlying data was missing several key components, and a large swath of the data that was present involved a high degree of assumptions and carry-forward estimates due to large chunks of missing price information. Even if headline inflation ticket figures continue to ease lower, a lack of accurate measurement will keep both FOMC votes and trader expectations on the back foot.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD flubbed the 0.6700 handle for a second day in a row on Tuesday.
- Markets remain tepid and cautious during the final week of trading in 2025.
- Diverging centra lbank rate paths are the key focus heading into 2026.
AUD/USD strung itself along the 0.6700 handle for the second day in a row as the Aussie-Dollar pairing grapples with end-of-year market volumes restraining overall momentum. The Australian Dollar is looking upward as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) inches toward a fresh rate hiking cycle, with the US Dollar (USD) under pressure across the board from a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) poised for further rate cuts through 2026.
The RBA is staring down the barrel of a fresh rate cutting cycle as Australian economic data supports higher rates. Australian futures markets are pricing in a 34% chance that the RBA will get pushed into delivering a rate hike at its next rate call on February 3.
Fed heading for more rate cuts, but inflation remains the linchpin
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes from its last interest rate decision of the year were released, giving investors a confirmation that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voters are willing to play ball on the concept of further rate cuts, but otherwise revealing little of note. The Fed is tilting into the dovish side, with the majority of rate-setters willing to explore further rate trims, but Fed policy changes still rely on easing, not absent, inflation data.
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- EUR/USD softens to around 1.1745 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Fed Minutes showed most officials expect additional rate cuts.
- The ECB kept interest rates unchanged earlier this month and hinted that they are likely to remain steady for some time.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers near 1.1745 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December meeting. The US Initial Jobless Claims report will be released later in the day. Trading volumes are expected to remain thin ahead of the New Year holidays.
According to minutes from the Fed at its December 9-10 meeting, the US central bank decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. Those in favor cited increased downside risks to employment and easing inflation pressures. Governor Stephen Miran voted against the action in favor of a jumbo rate cut, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid dissented in favor of leaving rates unchanged.
Most Fed officials saw further interest-rate reductions as appropriate so long as inflation declines over time, though they remained divided over when and how far to cut. Following the FOMC minutes’ release, the probability of a January cut based on federal funds futures contracts declined slightly to about 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
”We don't have any direction in Fed policy, and so you're seeing that reflected in the dollar and the currency rates, you're seeing it reflected in the interest rates as well in the Treasury rates, so the market doesn't have a lot to work with right here," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street in New York.
On the other hand, signals that the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut cycle is ending might help limit the shared currency’s losses. The ECB held interest rates steady earlier this month and signaled they would likely remain so for some time. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank cannot provide forward guidance on future rate moves due to high uncertainty, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The money market has priced in for a 25 bps interest rate cut by the ECB in February 2026, currently remains below 10%.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Canadian Dollar flattened against the US Dollar on Tuesday.
- Holiday market volumes are constraining momentum, keeping price action subdued.
- Central bank rate trajectories remains the key focal point for Loonie markets heading into 2026.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) flatlined on Tuesday, holding in a near-term range against the US Dollar (USD) as markets grind their way through the end-of-year slowdown. Market momentum remains absent with most market participants sidelined through the final trading week of 2025.
The meeting minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate call, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a third straight interest rate cut, revealed little new information: despite a widening range of policy targets, the FOMC is overwhelmingly tilting into the dovish side, and is open to the idea of further interest rate cuts, but only in inflation metrics continue to ease.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar traders look ahead to the new year
- The Canadian Dollar struggled to find movement on Tuesday, stuck near familiar levels against the US Dollar.
- Deeply overbought Loonie markets could be primed for a short-term move lower, but are poised to give way to further gains as rate differentials begin to widen in 2026.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) remains stuck in place with too-low interest rates, while the Fed looks set for further rate cuts next year.
- The Fed’s latest meeting minutes showed that policymakers are open to further interest rate cuts, but rate moves remain contingent on inflation continuing to ease.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3697. The pair holds below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, both pointing lower. The 50-day EMA has crossed beneath the 200-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish setup and keeping rebounds contained. RSI near 32 signals weak momentum after an oversold dip, while the Stochastic turning up from extreme lows hints at fading downside pressure.
Bearish momentum prevails while price remains under the falling averages and RSI stays south of 50. A daily close above the 50-day EMA would ease pressure and open scope for a corrective bounce toward the 200-day EMA, but failure to clear the former would keep risks tilted to fresh lows. Oscillator stabilization could fuel brief recoveries, yet trend signals still favor sellers until those moving-average barriers give way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Here’s what you need to know on Wednesday, December 31st:
The highlight of the day was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the December meeting, released in the American afternoon. The Minutes showed that most participants are willing to deliver additional rate cuts if inflation declines over time. The document also showed that economic growth is projected to move modestly faster than at the October meeting.
US Dollar Index (DXY) trades in the 98.20 price zone on Tuesday, gaining 0.2% for the day as the market digests the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released earlier today
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.19% | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.14% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.19% | -0.25% | -0.03% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.28% | -0.35% | -0.13% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.04% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.29% | -0.09% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.23% | -0.05% | 0.19% | 0.24% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.09% | -0.19% | -0.22% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.05% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold: The Yellow Metal traded above $4,350 on Tuesday, trimming back a quarter of its weekly losses after bottoming at $4,300 on Monday. The XAU/USD pair declined sharply after hitting an all-time high of $4550 at the beginning of the week, due to profit-taking ahead of the New Year’s holiday.
EUR/USD: The pair traded near the 1.1750 region at the time of writing, amid current market calm as we approach the New Year holiday. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates between one and three times next year, helping keep the pair afloat ahead of year-end.
GBP/USD: traded around 1.3470 on Tuesday, consolidating after surging to a more than three-month high near 1.3530.
USD/JPY: traded near the 156.40 price zone as the USD recovers some ground following the FOMC Minutes release.
The AUD/USD and the USD/CAD are ending the day pretty much unchanged.
Most financial markets will remain closed on Wednesday due to the New Year’s holiday.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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