Forex News
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that USD/CNH downside momentum continues to build after the pair slipped to 6.7653. Intraday, there is a chance of testing major support at 6.7600 while staying below 6.7780. On a 1–3 week horizon, the Dollar is expected to trade with a downside bias toward 6.7600, provided strong resistance at 6.7820 caps the upside.
Increasing pressure on key support zone
"24-HOUR VIEW: After USD dropped to a low of 6.7695 on Wednesday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The rapid increase in momentum suggests further USD weakness, even though the major support at 6.7600 is likely out of reach (there is another support level at 6.7660). On the upside, a breach of 6.7800 (minor resistance is at 6.7760) would indicate that the decline is stabilising.” Our view was not wrong, as USD subsequently rose to 6.7781 and then fell to a low of 6.7653. Downward momentum continues to increase, and today, there is a chance for USD to test 6.7600. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 6.7780 (minor resistance is at 6.7720)."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned slightly negative on USD yesterday (15 Jul, spot at 6.7720). We highlighted that “downward momentum is increasing, and USD is likely to trade with a downside bias toward 6.7600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 6.7820 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 6.7860 yesterday) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Korean Won (KRW) is outperforming, supported by a hawkish 25 bps Bank of Korea (BoK) hike to 2.75% and expectations that growth and core inflation will exceed 2026 projections. A sharp KOSPI correction after prior outperformance reduces the need for global investors to trim Korean equity exposure, removing a key source of KRW selling pressure and leaving the currency’s undervaluation attractive.
Policy tightening and valuation aid Won
"Bank of Korea (BoK) delivered a hawkish hike. BoK raised the policy rate 25bps to 2.75% after keeping rates on hold the past year."
"Going forward, BoK stressed “that it will be necessary to continue a policy stance consistent with further rate hikes.” That’s reasonable considering that South Korea real GDP growth (3.8% y/y in Q1) and core inflation (2.5% y/y in June) are expected to exceed the BoK’s 2026 projection of 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively."
"In parallel, the KOSPI index plunged as much as 7.6% today, wiping out the previous session’s gains and nearing its lowest level in more than two months amid the AI-led semiconductor selloff."
"The KOSPI’s correction following an extended period of outperformance reduces the need for global investors to trim Korean equity exposure back to benchmark, removing a key source of KRW selling pressure."
"The outlook for KRW is encouraging. The currency is significantly undervalued (11% undervalued based on deviation from real effective exchange rate trend), the BoK has started to tighten, and the South Korean government is taking meaningful steps to internationalize the won."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that softer US inflation data has weakened the Dollar and lowered Fed rate hike expectations, but USD/THB has still broken above 33.50. He highlights Thailand’s low carry, deteriorating terms of trade from higher Oil prices, increased growth risks from Middle East tensions, and valuation metrics indicating the Baht remains modestly overvalued, supporting a weaker Baht outlook.
Baht under pressure despite softer Dollar
"Despite the softer dollar backdrop, USD/THB has broken above the 33.50 level, and we continue to see scope for further baht weakness."
"Thailand’s low carry profile remains a headwind, while the recent rebound in oil prices is likely to worsen the country’s terms of trade."
"Growth risks have also increased amid the re-escalation of Middle East tensions, which could encourage the Bank of Thailand to maintain an accommodative policy stance to support the economy."
"In addition, our valuation metrics suggest that the baht remains modestly overvalued."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rebounds from 0.8042 support, preserving bullish structure.
- RSI turns higher from neutral, signaling renewed upside momentum.
- Break above 0.8100 exposes 0.8171 and 0.8250 resistance.
The USD/CHF reversed course, rising by over 0.40% late Thursday as the Greenback staged a recovery amid overall risk aversion, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and strong US economic data. The pair trades at 0.8088 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8045.
USD/CHF price forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF made a U-turn after testing the March 31 high-turned-support at 0.8042, exacerbating a move toward 0.8100.
Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bulls are gathering some steam after taking a breather on Wednesday, as the index briefly touched the 50-neutral level. Since then, the RSI’s aim has been toward the 60 level, an indication that the uptrend might continue.
If USD/CHF climbs above 0.8100, this opens the door to test the August 1, 2025 daily peak at 0.8171, and then the June 4, 2025 high at 0.8250. Conversely, a drop below 0.8100 opens the door to test the psychological 0.8000 level. Below this area lies the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7967, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7919.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.19% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | -0.19% | 0.28% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.46% | -0.28% | -0.35% | -0.39% | -0.33% | -0.35% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.07% | 0.35% | -0.08% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.13% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.33% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.01% | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | -0.21% | 0.04% | -0.29% | -0.37% | -0.27% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Here is what you need to know for Friday, July 17:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises toward 100.80, gaining around 0.3% as stronger-than-expected United States labor-market data supports the Greenback. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K, below expectations of 217K and the previous 216K. However, Retail Sales growth slowed to 0.2% MoM in June from 1.0% previously, limiting the Dollar’s advance.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.42% | |
| EUR | -0.20% | 0.28% | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.48% | -0.28% | -0.37% | -0.41% | -0.34% | -0.36% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.37% | -0.09% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | 0.05% | 0.34% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | 0.09% | 0.36% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.01% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.42% | -0.21% | 0.05% | -0.30% | -0.38% | -0.27% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD falls toward 1.1440, losing around 0.2% amid renewed US Dollar strength. Investors now await the final Eurozone inflation report. Core HICP inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY, while headline inflation is forecast at -0.1% MoM.
GBP/USD declines toward 1.3470, falling around 0.5% as broad demand for the Greenback weighs on the Pound Sterling.
USD/JPY rises toward 162.40, gaining around 0.1% as the stronger US Dollar keeps the Japanese Yen under pressure. However, concerns over possible intervention by Japanese authorities may limit further gains.
AUD/USD falls below 0.7000 and trades near 0.6995, down around 0.2%. Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, while stronger US jobless claims data supported the Greenback.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil falls toward $79.00 per barrel, losing around 1.6% as traders take profits following its recent advance despite continued concerns surrounding Middle East supply risks.
Gold drops sharply toward $3,982, declining almost 2% as the rebound in the US Dollar reduces demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
On Friday, market participants will monitor the final Eurozone inflation figures, alongside US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD downside momentum has intensified after a sharp intraday swing, with firm support highlighted at 1.2875 and 1.2860. In the near term, the pair is expected to stay below 1.2910, while on a 1–3 week horizon a close under 1.2860 could trigger a deeper decline toward 1.2830, unless strong resistance at 1.2930 is broken.
Downside momentum targets key supports
"24-HOUR VIEW: On Wednesday, USD dropped to 1.2875 before snapping back up. When USD was at 1.2910 yesterday, we highlighted that “downward momentum has increased, but not significantly, and instead of continuing to decline, USD is more likely to consolidate between 1.2885 and 1.2930.” We underestimated the volatility as USD rose near 1.2930 with a high of 1.2928 before plummeting to a low of 1.2876. The sharp increase in momentum points to further downside, but any decline is expected to face firm support at 1.2860. Note that the 1.2875 level is expected to offer support as well. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 1.2910, with minor resistance at 1.2895."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (15 Jul, spot at 1.2910), we highlighted that “while there is scope for USD to weaken, given that there is no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline could be contained within a 1.2860/1.2955 range.” We did not quite expect USD to fall sharply to a low of 1.2876. Downward momentum is starting to build, and should USD close below 1.2860, it could trigger a deeper decline. On the upside, a breach of 1.2930 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the risk of further downside has eased. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.2860 is 1.2830."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Mexican Peso dives as US data beats reinforce Greenback comeback.
- Logan and Schmid keep Fed tightening risks firmly alive.
- USMCA talks could cushion Peso if progress continues.
The Mexican Peso depreciated by about 0.30% on Thursday as market participants turned risk-averse amid an escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has driven energy prices higher. Also, a round of positive US data triggered a U-turn in the overall trend, which could open the door to a recovery in the Greenback. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 17.43 after reaching a low of the day (LOD) of 17.37.
USD/MXN rebounds as Oil shock, US data boosts the USD
Strikes between the US and Iran continued, fueling fears that a prolonged conflict might trigger a second wave of inflation, due to high Oil prices. Consequently, the Greenback stages a comeback, bolstered by high US Treasury yields, as the 10-year T-note yields 4.569%, up 2 basis points.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against other six, is up 0.27% to 100.76.
US data was positive, with Retail Sales up 0.2% MoM in June, below May’s 1% growth—mainly due to higher gasoline prices. Control Group Retail Sales, used for GDP, slowed from 0.8% to 0.5%, as expected. Other data revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 11 were 208K, below forecasts of 217K.
Fed officials turn hawkish
Fed Regional Bank Presidents Lorie Logan and Jeffrey Schmid crossed the wires and were hawkish. Logan from the Dallas Fed calls for a slightly higher policy rate to balance the outlook and risks. Schmid from Kansas City notes the labour market is stable but remains concerned about persistent inflation across many goods and services.
Mexico-US bilateral talks continued to progress
In Mexico, the economic docket was absent, yet negotiations between Washington and Mexico continued.
The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, commented that formal trade talks with Mexico were progressing. Greer said that “So, it's going well with the Mexicans. They're quite pragmatic,” but added that “our trade deficit with Mexico really is a challenge. It really is a problem.”
Next week, US and Mexican officials will meet for a third round of formal bilateral USMCA negotiations in Mexico City. A positive outcome in trade negotiations could underpin the Mexican Peso, which is poised to weaken further as the interest rate differential is set to narrow.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.50%. Conversely, the swaps market expects the Federal Reserve to increase rates by 25 basis points, which would reduce the differential to 250 basis points.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.4309, holding slightly above the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) around 17.3786, which acts as near-term support and keeps the broader tone mildly constructive. The pair is still capped by a descending resistance trend line drawn from 18.1651, whose latest reaction high at 17.5456 marks the first topside barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 49 suggests momentum is broadly neutral and consistent with a consolidative bias rather than a directional breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the recent trend-line reaction near 17.5456, ahead of a more distant structural cap associated with the longer-term downtrend line, where the latest resisted close stands near 18.1200. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the multi-period SMA zone at 17.3786, and as long as USD/MXN stays above this moving-average floor, dips would likely remain shallow within the prevailing range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNY has extended its decline on softer United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with firmer People's Bank of China (PBoC) fixings validating gradual RMB appreciation. China’s large trade surplus and exporter US Dollar (USD) selling offer a supportive backdrop, but soft domestic growth and potential policy easing should limit the pace of gains. Key USD/CNH support and resistance levels frame the near-term range.
USD/CNY downside and key levels
"USD/CNY extended its decline as softer US CPI, PPI weighed on the USD and pared back Fed tightening expectations. Firmer PBoC fixings reinforced the move, suggesting policymakers are comfortable allowing some gradual RMB appreciation rather than actively pushing the currency higher."
"China’s large June trade surplus provides a supportive flow backdrop, with market chatters of exporter USD sell flows, though this is better viewed as a possible amplifier than a confirmed driver."
"Near term, further downside in USD/CNY may depend on USD softness extending and the fix continuing to validate spot moves. China’s soft domestic growth backdrop and scope for further policy easing should still limit the pace of RMB gains."
"Decisive break may open room for 6.72 – 6.74 area. Meantime, resistance at 6.7860/ 6.79 (21, 50 DMAs)."
"USD/CNH last seen at 6.7690 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI shows signs of turnaround from near oversold conditions. Support at 6.7540 (year-to-date low)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD falls near 1.1440 as stronger US labor-market data supports the US Dollar.
- US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 208K, while Retail Sales growth slowed to 0.2% in June.
- Eurozone core inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY, with headline HICP forecast at -0.1% MoM.
EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1440 area on Thursday, retreating around 0.2% as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from stronger-than-expected United States (US) labor market data.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K in the week ending July 11, below expectations of 217K and the previous 216K. The figures indicate that layoffs remain limited, supporting the Greenback despite signs of softer consumer spending.
US Retail Sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, matching expectations but slowing from May’s 1.0% increase. The Retail Sales Control Group advanced 0.5%, also in line with forecasts but below the previous 0.8%, suggesting that consumption momentum moderated.
In the Eurozone, investors await June inflation data. Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, while headline HICP is forecast to decline 0.1% on the month. A softer inflation reading could strengthen expectations of a less restrictive European Central Bank (ECB) policy stance and place additional pressure on the Euro.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1436, maintaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1428 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1413. The short-term trade is underpinned by these clustered SMA supports, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests balanced momentum after the recent recovery earlier in the week, hinting that dips could continue to attract buying interest as long as the pair stays over the moving average floor.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at 1.1447, followed by a tighter band of barriers at 1.1457, 1.1466 and 1.1472, where prior horizontal caps could slow further gains. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 1.1428, with stronger structural demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near 1.1413; a sustained drop below this latter level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Standard Chartered analysts Christopher Graham and Carol Liao discuss how the European Union is seeking to rebalance its trade relationship with China without shutting the door on engagement. They highlight a large and rising trade deficit, ongoing EU-China negotiations, and the development of new trade tools. The report stresses moderate escalation risk and a likely focus on supporting domestic industry.
EU weighs new trade defence tools
"Eurostat data shows the EU’s 12-month rolling trade deficit with China stood at EUR 376bn in May (8% higher than a year earlier), intensifying concerns among European leaders over what is perceived to be an increasingly lopsided trading relationship."
"Both sides have agreed to spend the next three months discussing ways to rebalance that relationship as part of their broader Trade and Investment Consultation launched in late June."
"In the background, the EU is developing new trade tools, including diversification and overcapacity instruments."
"If nothing tangible is delivered via talks, these tools could be activated in October."
"More EU trade defence measures are likely to materialise, but they will be carefully calibrated to avoid a tit-for-tat escalation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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