Forex News

TD Securities argues that Jackson Hole is more about Federal Reserve (Fed) credibility than new guidance for the US Dollar (USD). They see rate expectations staying anchored, but warn that any failure by Chair Warsh to reaffirm the inflation mandate could weigh on USD. The risk skew is described as modestly USD‑negative over the near term.

Fed messaging seen USD‑negative risk

"Rate differentials have re-emerged as the primary driver and investor attention is turning to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where any repricing of the central bank policy path could prove an important catalyst for FX markets."

"Jackson Hole - More about credibility than guidance for USD. For Jackson Hole, we believe the immediate implication for FX is that rate expectations will remain relatively anchored, limiting the scope for a sustained directional move in the USD."

"The asymmetry, however, may lean modestly USD-negative."

"As a result, any effort by Warsh to "clear the air" around inflation credibility is likely to provide only modest support for the dollar. By contrast, any failure to address concerns around the credibility of the Fed's inflation-targeting framework could continue to weigh more heavily on the USD."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Silver extends its correction on Tuesday and loses 1.43% as investors reduce exposure ahead of US inflation data.
• US Treasury bond buybacks revive concerns over debt and currency debasement, potentially limiting the metal’s decline.
• Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to provide structural support for Silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Tuesday and trades around $67.50 at the time of writing, down 1.43% on the day. The precious metal corrects for a second consecutive day as investors remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, while attention also turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge for assessing price pressures, is expected to remain steady at 3.4% YoY in July. A stronger-than-expected reading could fuel concerns over tighter monetary policy and weigh on Silver, while easing inflation could strengthen expectations for a monetary policy hold and support precious metals.

Investors are also monitoring signals from the US labor market. The four-week average of the ADP Employment Change rises to 11.75K jobs per week in early August, up from 9.5K previously. The improvement suggests some recovery in private-sector hiring, although it does not fully dispel concerns about the trajectory of the US economy.

Despite Silver’s correction, US fiscal risks could limit bearish pressure. The US Treasury plans to double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds, while markets assess the possibility that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could deploy up to $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA). These measures could affect market liquidity and bond yields while reviving the US Dollar (USD) debasement narrative against a backdrop of elevated public debt.

Geopolitical tensions provide another potential source of support for precious metals. Commerzbank notes that the expansion of US sanctions against Iran, including measures targeting Oil, shipping, technology, Gold and digital assets, adds to geopolitical uncertainty. Stronger safe-haven demand could therefore help contain Silver’s losses.

Finally, Silver’s industrial fundamentals remain supportive. Demand continues to benefit from the green-energy transition, particularly photovoltaic solar panel production and electric vehicles, as well as the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. This combination of industrial demand and safe-haven appeal could continue to underpin Silver despite Tuesday’s correction.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $67.92, keeping a capped near-term tone as price holds below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $68.01 while remaining above the 200-hour SMA around $66.40. This configuration, with shorter-term resistance overhead and longer-term support beneath, suggests an ongoing consolidation within a broader uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 44.00 hints at subdued bullish momentum and leaves the metal vulnerable to further corrective pressure if support gives way.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 100-hour SMA near $68.01, followed higher by a horizontal barrier at $68.50 and then a more distant cap around $70.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges at $67.50, with further cushions at $66.50 and the 200-hour SMA clustered close by near $66.40, where a break would likely shift the bias more decisively in favor of sellers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD consolidating in the mid to upper 1.16s after stronger German IFO and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which should bolster European Central Bank (ECB) confidence ahead of the September 10 meeting. Markets have nearly fully priced a 25 bp hike and further tightening, but they see little room for additional near-term Euro strength as spot trades slightly above its fair value estimate.

Euro supported but near-term gains capped

"The EUR is quietly consolidating in the mid/upper-1.16s, offering no material reaction to the release of better than expected German IFO business sentiment data for August."

"Germany’s final Q2 GDP figures also delivered a minor surprise, with an improvement largely driven by trade. The releases are constructive, and should provide confidence to ECB policymakers as they head into the next rate decision on September 10th."

"The meeting is nearly fully priced for a 25bpt hike (~24bpts) and short-term rates markets currently reflect a cumulative 42bpts of tightening by year end."

"The recent recovery in yield spreads has provided fundamental support to the EUR, however we see little scope for additional near-term strength as spot currently trades with a slight premium to our narrow fair value estimate at 1.1622."

"Bullish – the RSI remains bullish around the overbought threshold at 70. The latest rally looks to have stalled above near-term resistance around 1.17, and we note the absence of any additional meaningful resistance ahead of 1.18. We see near-term support at 1.1650 and 1.1600, and note the 200 day MA at 1.1632. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• The US CB Consumer Confidence Index recedes a tad in August.
• The US Dollar Index trades without clear direction near 99.00.

US consumer sentiment loses some momentum in August, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index recedes to 89.4 from July’s 90.2 (revised from 90.8).

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month. The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) now alternates gains with losses near the 99.00 region as investors continue to closely follow developments from the Middle East, all ahead of Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that Spot Gold remains in a broader uptrend after breaking above a key declining trendline and reaching an intraday high near $4,700. While upward momentum remains strong, deeply overbought conditions have triggered a pullback, with support around $4,425 and resistance at $4,773 and $4,889.

Overbought uptrend faces resistance band

"Spot gold’s broader move remains on the upside, but deeply overbought conditions could lead to a near-term pullback or consolidation."

"Last Wednesday, 19 August 2026, spot gold surged and broke above the declining trendline mentioned above. It continued to rise, and earlier today reached an intraday high of $4,696, just shy of the $4,700 level we highlighted in our previous update."

"Upward momentum remains strong, but with the daily slow stochastic near its most overbought level since February’s record, a near-term pullback or consolidation looks likely even though the broader move remains on the upside. "

"The minor ascending daily trendline, now at $4,425, is providing immediate support. A breach of the 21-day EMA at $4,425 would indicate that upward momentum has faded. On the upside, the next resistance level to monitor is May’s high of $4,773."

"The 50% retracement of the drop from the record high of $5,595 to June’s low of $3,943 is at $4,769, not far below $4,773. Above $4,773, the next key level to monitor is April’s high of $4,889."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht notes Copper prices are rising again as ICSG data show a significant June deficit and a sharply reduced year‑to‑date surplus. Weak mine output outside China and Congo, production issues in Chile and the DRC, and rising cancelled LME warrants are fuelling supply concerns. The tightening balance underpins a more supportive price environment for Copper.

ICSG deficit and LME signals

"Prices on the copper market are rising again. One factor driving this uptrend is the latest data from the International Copper Study Group."

"According to this, the market was significantly undersupplied in June – by a good 85,000 tons after seasonal adjustment. As a result, the surplus in the first half of the year fell to just 32,000 tons."

"Adding to the concern is the fact that China’s copper production also faltered in July (we reported) and a Chinese mining company is likely to have to revise its production forecast downwards due to flooding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo."

"Furthermore, reports of cancelled warrants on the LME fuelled fears of a supply shortage. Although LME copper stocks have risen slightly, orders for withdrawals of LME copper have surged by over 50,000 tons."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• EUR/USD holds modest gains as the US Dollar struggles to regain traction.
• Upbeat German GDP and IFO data offer support to the Euro.
• Traders await US inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

EUR/USD holds modest gains on Tuesday as the latest Middle East developments fail to trigger a strong market reaction, while the US Dollar (USD) struggles to recover from last week’s sell-off sparked by the US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated government securities. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1671, below the three-month high of 1.1711 touched on Friday.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said he and Army Chief Asim Munir held a “very positive and productive meeting” with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, adding that “significant progress” was made. Pakistan has been acting as a mediator between the United States and Iran.

The diplomatic push comes after the US Treasury launched “Operation Economic Outcast” on Monday, a wider sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off financial support for the Iranian government.

The Greenback, meanwhile, struggles for traction as the Treasury’s buyback decision revives concerns about the US fiscal outlook and rising government debt, bringing the USD debasement trade back into focus. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.95 after briefly climbing above 99.00 earlier in the day.

US labour data released on Tuesday showed that the ADP Employment Change four-week average rose to 11.75K from 9.5K previously. Traders now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday for fresh clues about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate path. Attention will then shift to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Stronger-than-expected German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and IFO Business Climate data offer some support to the Euro (EUR). Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in the second quarter, slightly above the preliminary estimate and market expectation of 0.2%. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 1%, beating the 0.9% forecast and accelerating from 0.7% previously.

On the monetary policy front, the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to take different paths at their upcoming meetings. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, while the ECB is seen raising borrowing costs in September.