Forex News
- GBP/USD gains 0.26% to 1.3423 as US Dollar weakness supports Sterling.
- WTI plunges over 5.60% despite stronger US manufacturing activity.
- BoE expected to raise rates to 4% as traders await NFP.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises about 0.26% against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, starting the eleventh month of the year on an upbeat note as the economy in the US remains strong following the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October. GBP/USD trades at 1.3423 at the time of writing after hitting a six-week high of 1.3448.
GBP/USD advances as plunging Oil prices weaken the Dollar ahead of BoE decision
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved from 54.5 to 55.5 in October, exceeding forecasts of 54.6. In the report, employment measurements cooled by a tenth, while Prices Paid dipped from 77.9 to 75.2.
The data was US dollar-positive, but renewed hopes for a diplomatic exit to the US-Iran conflict sent energy prices downwards, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, falling more than 5% to $96.32. Consequently, the positive correlation between crude and the Greenback weighed on the latter, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the American currency against six other currencies, drifting lower by 0.27% to 101.68.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US President Donald Trump supports a diplomatic exit. Ahead, US mid-term elections would drive price action before investors focus on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
In the UK, traders have digested the Autumn Budget and now brace for the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday.
The BoE is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4% by the end of the year; money markets had priced a total of 33 bps of hikes, according to Prime Terminal.
This is Pound positive as the interest rate differential between the US and the UK will narrow. But if the BoE holds rates steady in December and the Fed raises rates as priced by market participants, this could cap the GBP/USD advance.
What’s in the calendar?
In the UK, the docket is absent. In the US, traders will eye Factory Orders and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3418, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the latest composite simple moving average cluster around 1.3376. The pair is also trading above former trend-line barriers, with the broken downward resistance from 1.3653 now providing support near 1.3387 and the earlier resistance line tied to the 1.3869 peak now underpinning price around 1.3244. A Relative Strength Index (14) reading near 59 suggests constructive but not overextended bullish momentum, reinforcing the idea of buyers remaining in control while upside remains gradually paced.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the current price area around 1.3418, ahead of the trend-line support-turned-floor at 1.3387 and the simple moving average cluster near 1.3376, with a deeper cushion at the prior break zone around 1.3244. On the topside, GBP/USD would face next notable resistance at the rising support trend line broken near 1.3668, with a stronger cap emerging at the higher upward trend-line break around 1.3842, where sellers could attempt to reassert themselves.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.37% | -0.21% | 0.19% | -0.08% | 0.19% | 0.02% | -0.67% | |
| EUR | 0.37% | 0.17% | 0.55% | 0.28% | 0.56% | 0.39% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.17% | 0.40% | 0.12% | 0.39% | 0.22% | -0.43% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.55% | -0.40% | -0.26% | -0.00% | -0.17% | -0.86% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.28% | -0.12% | 0.26% | 0.28% | 0.09% | -0.56% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | -0.56% | -0.39% | 0.00% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.83% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | -0.39% | -0.22% | 0.17% | -0.09% | 0.16% | -0.66% | |
| CHF | 0.67% | 0.27% | 0.43% | 0.86% | 0.56% | 0.83% | 0.66% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold starts the week on a positive note as Oil prices fall amid renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts.
- Persistent inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations continue to limit Gold's upside.
- XAU/USD's technical outlook remains bearish as the RSI approaches oversold territory.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery during American trading hours on Monday, supported by falling Oil prices following positive headlines on US-Iran talks. The metal regains ground after hitting a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,953, up 2% on the day.
The latest gains come after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain powers regarding negotiations, according to ISNA.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slips toward $96 a barrel, down more than 5% on the day. The decline in Oil prices also keeps US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) on the back foot following the recent technology-stock sell-off, providing additional support to Gold.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said consultations through Qatari and Pakistani mediators were “very intensive,” adding that Tehran had presented its terms and plan and that progress depended on Washington’s “political rationality.” He stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained conditional on the US accepting Iran’s demands, including ending its naval blockade and lifting sanctions.
Hawkish Fed outlook clouds Gold’s recovery
Gold now trades around 28% below its all-time high near $5,600 set in January. Since the US-Iran war began in late February, the metal has largely moved opposite to Oil, as elevated energy prices drove inflation higher and prompted central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to tighten monetary policy.
The Fed voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in October, following September’s 25-basis-point (bps) increase, opting for a patient approach in its fight against inflation. Traders price in a 72% chance of a December rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.
Despite the pullback, Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, keeping inflation risks in focus. Any setback in diplomatic efforts could send energy prices higher again, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy and limiting Gold’s recovery.
On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, beating expectations of 54.6. The Prices Paid Index eased to 75.2 from 77.9, below the forecast of 77.
Attention now turns to the US midterm elections on November 3, which could influence the US Dollar and, in turn, Gold. Traders also face a busy economic calendar as they look for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path. JOLTS Job Openings are due Tuesday. ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI are due Wednesday, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Technical analysis: Weak momentum keeps further losses on the table
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish outlook as it trades below the 21-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 hovers just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading, which together hint that downside momentum is still dominant, even if the sell-off is becoming stretched.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies in the $3,950-$4,000 region, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,092. Above there, the 100-day SMA at $4,210 and a higher horizontal barrier near $4,400 form a broader supply zone, before the 200-day SMA at $4,485 comes into play as a more distant structural ceiling.
On the downside, Gold remains vulnerable to further losses, with immediate support at Friday's yearly low of $3,870. A break below this level could pave the way for further declines.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham analyzes upcoming changes at the European Central Bank following Christine Lagarde’s early departure. He highlights that half of the Executive Board, including Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane, must be replaced. The report discusses potential successors such as Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernandez de Cos, and stresses that implications for monetary policy are more nuanced than a simple hawk-dove split.
Leadership reshuffle and policy thresholds
"Christine Lagarde’s announcement that she will step down as European Central Bank (ECB) president nine months ahead of schedule has accelerated what was already shaping up to be a major reshuffle of the Executive Board."
"Our marginal base case is that former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot will be the next ECB president, France will secure the chief economist role and Germany will replace Schnabel’s seat."
"The implications for monetary policy are more nuanced than a simple hawk-dove distinction."
"Relative to Lagarde, de Cos appears marginally more dovish and Knot marginally more hawkish, but both have demonstrated pragmatism, while the other appointments could matter just as much."
"With the ECB confronting renewed inflation pressures and potential sovereign stresses, the candidates’ thresholds for policy action could become apparent fairly quick."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver gains over 3.5% as US-Iran diplomatic signals weigh on Oil prices.
- XAG/USD remains below key moving averages, keeping the bearish outlook intact.
- The RSI recovers from oversold territory, while the ADX points to a strong downtrend.
Silver (XAG/USD) attempts a rebound on Monday after sliding to a fresh yearly low of $48.47 on Friday. The recovery comes as Oil prices tumble more than 5% following positive diplomatic signals from both the US and Iran. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $51, up 3.80% on the day.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain powers regarding negotiations, according to ISNA. Earlier, Axios reported that US President Donald Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time.
Falling Oil prices ease inflation concerns, allowing US Treasury yields to extend their recent decline following the technology-stock sell-off and adding pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Together, these moves support Silver’s recovery.
However, a deeper decline in Oil prices is far from assured, as the diplomatic outlook remains uncertain and both Washington and Tehran keep military options open. Silver’s upside therefore hinges on whether diplomacy leads to a sustained decline in Oil prices.
Otherwise, elevated energy costs could keep inflation risks in focus and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on a hawkish path. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Silver, which pays no yield.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD maintains a bearish outlook as it trades below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $56, the 100-day SMA at $61 and the 200-day SMA at $70. This alignment of price under all major trend filters suggests the metal is in a broader corrective phase, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 31 after briefly dipping into oversold territory.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory with a weak line, and the rising Average Directional Index (ADX) near 42 suggests the prevailing downtrend retains strength despite the proximity of oversold momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $52, ahead of a more notable barrier at $55, with the 21-day SMA at $56 reinforcing this supply zone and the 100-day SMA at $61 marking a deeper recovery hurdle before the prior horizontal cap at $67 and the longer-term 200-day SMA at $70.
On the downside, immediate support sits at Friday's low near $48.87, where a break would expose further bearish extension, although the increasingly oversold RSI and strong-trend ADX readings suggest that any slide towards that floor could start to attract short-covering rather than fresh aggressive selling.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerating pace in October, with the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September. This print came in better than the market expectation of 54.6.
Other details of the report showed that the Employment Index edged lower to 52.4 in this period, while the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, declined to 75.2 from 77.9.
Assessing the report's findings, "In October, US manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, four (New Orders, Production, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) grew faster than the previous month, while Employment growth slowed down by 0.3 percentage point," noted Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
"In October, general sentiment got worse for a third month in a row, with 34 percent of the comments positive and 66 percent negative (a 1-to-2 ratio of positive to negative sentiment)," Spence added. "Among negative comments, pricing volatility was mentioned in 62 percent, longer lead times 41 percent, tariffs 25 percent and the Iran war 21 percent; most comments mentioned multiple factors."
Market reaction
This report failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.35% on the day at 101.60.
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research notes that AUD has largely priced in a 25-bps RBA hike to 4.85% at the November meeting, following an acceleration in CPI inflation. He warns that the RBA could still disappoint by pausing or signalling a near-peak in rates, with downgraded GDP and higher inflation forecasts highlighting a difficult policy trade-off and a tentative AUD/USD recovery.
Australian Dollar faces RBA trade-offs
"The AUD has largely priced in a 25-bps hike to 4.85% at the November 3 Reserve Bank of Australia meeting."
"Although the three earlier hikes appear to be cooling the labour market, weak productivity growth continues to sustain inflationary pressures despite subdued consumption growth."
"The RBA could, nevertheless, disappoint by following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise pause or by delivering a hike while signalling that rates are nearing peak."
"The RBA’s accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy will likely show 2027 forecasts revised lower for GDP growth and higher for inflation, underscoring the RBA’s difficult policy trade-off."
"AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6894 to 0.7032 in the second half of October remains tentative, with the USD also likely to determine if it can break last week’s peak at 0.7068."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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