Forex News
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to hold rates at 1.00%, leaving negative real yields that keep Thai Baht (THB) lagging. The Bank of Korea (BoK) is seen hiking again to 3.00%, supporting South Korean Won (KRW) as growth and inflation exceed targets. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is forecast to deliver a third 25 bps hike to 5.00% to curb Philippine Peso (PHP) weakness after USD/PHP hit record highs, partly on stronger Oil prices.
Divergent policy outlooks across Asia
"Bank of Thailand (BoT) is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 1.00% for a third straight meeting (Wednesday). Negative real rates should keep THB an Asian FX laggard."
"Bank of Korea (BoK) is expected to deliver a back-to-back 25bps hike to 3.00% (Thursday). A minority of analysts polled by Bloomberg (5 of 17) have no change penciled in. We expect BOK to raise rates which can offer KRW additional support."
"After voting unanimously to lift rates at its last July meeting, BoK stressed “that it will be necessary to continue a policy stance consistent with further rate hikes.” Indeed, real GDP growth is on track to exceed the bank’s 2.6% forecast for 2026, and inflation remains above the 2% target level."
"Philippine central bank (BSP) is expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bps hike to 5.00% (Thursday). A minority of analysts polled by Bloomberg (4 of 22) have no change penciled in."
"We expect BSP to raise rates to curtail PHP weakness. USD/PHP rallied to a record high near 62.00 last week, underpinned in part by firmer crude oil prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN climbs as US-Iran sanctions weigh on Peso.
- Mexico inflation accelerates, but core price pressures ease slightly.
- Softer GDP growth limits support before Jackson Hole speech.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) loses ground against the Greenback on Monday, even though economic data showed that inflation accelerated in the first half of August, while economic growth was softer than expected. Consequently, the USD/MXN pair trades with gains of over 0.25% to 16.96.
USD/MXN weakens as US sanctions lift caution despite firmer Mexican inflation
Economic data from Mexico showed that headline inflation rose from 3.1% to 3.26% in the first 15 days of August, according to the national statistics agency. Underlying inflation, which excludes volatile items, cooled by two-tenths of a percentage point, from 3.95% to 3.94%.
At the same time, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter expanded by 1.4%, up from the -0.3% contraction witnessed in Q1 2026, but missed estimates for a 1.5% increase.
Even though the data could have warranted further upside, US sanctions on Iran, levied by the Treasury Department, capped the Mexican currency’s advance.
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking a trade deal with the US, following US President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada. Worth noting that the US imposed 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods as bilateral talks collapsed.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “unprecedented” economic measures against Iran, targeting vital lifelines such as digital assets, technology, Gold, aviation, and shipping. The economic D-Day called Operation Outcast sanctioned nearly 60 entities linked to Iran, including broker networks and shadow fleet vessels across several countries. The actions aim to cut funding for the IRGC.
Aside from this, traders eye the release of US growth, inflation and jobs data, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 16.9564, extending its decline below the cluster of longer-term simple moving averages (SMA) which now cap the upside near 17.3341. Price also remains under the nearer downward resistance trendline break at 17.3653, reinforcing a bearish tone despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.55 edging away from oversold territory and hinting at only modestly stabilizing momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the triple SMA cluster around 17.33, followed by the more recent downward trend-line break near 17.37, where sellers are likely to reassert control if a corrective bounce develops. On the downside, the longer-term descending trendline break level at 15.51 acts as a distant structural support zone, with the current setup suggesting that any recovery will struggle while USD/MXN trades beneath the 17.33–17.37 band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 25:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed the 99.00 mark for the first time since last Wednesday's plunge. The bid stems largely from safe-haven demand after United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set out a sharp escalation of the Iran sanctions campaign, pledging a "zero leakage" enforcement drive and warning that a major financial institution will be sanctioned within days.
The risk-off tone lifts Gold sharply and weighs on the growth-sensitive currencies, though it does not extend to Crude, which slips despite the geopolitical flare-up. Traders now look ahead to a busy Tuesday, headlined by Germany's IFO business surveys and a heavy run of US releases.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.57% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.43% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.45% | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.57% | -0.43% | -0.45% | -0.50% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.33% | 0.04% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.24% | -0.20% | 0.19% | -0.04% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD eases below the 1.1700 handle, drifting toward the mid-1.1600s as the firmer Dollar and pre-data caution keep the Euro on the defensive.
GBP/USD stays on the back foot, hovering around 1.3630 with no United Kingdom (UK) data on the slate to lend the Pound support.
USD/JPY holds firm north of 159.00, grinding higher as the Japanese Yen (JPY) slips against a broadly stronger US Dollar.
AUD/USD is the day's laggard, receding toward 0.7150 on risk aversion and a firmer Greenback with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes starting the Asian session and Australian inflation figures looming late in Tuesday's session.
Gold catches a strong safe-haven bid, climbing to just shy of the $4,650 mark per troy ounce as the Iran headlines drive demand.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil gives back ground, easing toward $85.00 per barrel area despite the escalation in US-Iran tensions.
Germany's second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to hold at a subdued pace, but the focus is on the August IFO surveys, where the Business Climate index is expected to improve to 87.2 from 86.6, and the current assessment and expectations gauges are also expected to firm. French Consumer Confidence rounds out the morning.
The US session is packed with ADP's four-week average employment figure kicking things off, followed by house-price data, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, with a 2-Year Note auction and the API weekly crude stock report later on.
Late in the day, attention swings back to Australia, where the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to cool to 3.2% from 3.8%, alongside the trimmed mean measure and second-quarter construction data, a batch that will set the tone for the Australian Dollar into the Wednesday open.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight South Korea’s strong export-led growth and large current-account surplus as key drivers of Korean Won strength against the Dollar. They note that increased National Pension Service hedging and corporate repatriation have reduced financial-account offsets, and expect USD/KRW to consolidate near current levels as Bank of Korea tightening and prior appreciation already weigh on financial conditions.
Won strength driven by surplus flows
"On the currency, the external backdrop has been supportive for some time, but the key change appears to be how South Korea's large current-account surplus is being recycled. Despite persistent current-account surpluses, KRW remained weak for much of the past year as strong overseas portfolio investment, including largely unhedged NPS purchases, absorbed much of the country's underlying FX inflows."
"More recently, increased NPS hedging and sizeable corporate repatriation flows, including proceeds from a US listing by a major semiconductor company, have reduced this financial-account offset, allowing the exceptionally strong external surplus to translate more directly into a stronger KRW. Expectations of further BoK tightening provide additional, rather than primary, support through the rates channel."
"The July MPC minutes showed broad agreement that further tightening would be needed. The main argument for waiting until October is the recent tightening in financial conditions following strong KRW appreciation and heightened volatility in the KOSPI."
"However, given the magnitude of the recent appreciation, further gains could become more gradual, particularly as the BoK has acknowledged that the stronger won is already tightening financial conditions. We therefore see scope for USD/KRW to consolidate around the 1,350-1,400 area in the near term."
"USD/KRW has fallen sharply since the end of June, from around 1,560 to 1,385, implying KRW has gained over 12% vs USD over this period. The combination of a record current-account surplus and a smaller financial-account offset should remain supportive for KRW."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe that the US Dollar (USD) is modestly stronger as markets start the week cautiously, with equities defensive and Treasuries firmer. Event risk from sanctions on Iran, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could drive moderate USD gains as positioning is pared, though bearish technical trends suggest any US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound may stall near 100.
USD firmer on risk and calendar
"While the broader dollar trend remains negative, price action late last week and (so far) today reflect a clear sense of caution in the market about pushing the USD lower still at the moment."
"Calendar and event risk this week is significant and the potential for some moderate gains in the USD broadly in the short run is high as investors pare back positioning."
"But it is questionable whether developments will change the dollar’s fundamental trajectory overall."
"Technical trends remain bearish and while oscillator signals are showing some moderation in the dollar decline, no reversal is evident at this point."
"Near-term gains in the DXY may be limited to the 100 area."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that RMB and CNH remain supported by softer USD dynamics and exporter conversion, but the People’s Bank of China is signalling a preference for gradual gains via its fixing. USD/CNH trades with mild bearish momentum and oversold RSI, with downside bias tempered by the risk of a snapback around clearly defined support and resistance levels.
USDCNH downside skew but measured
"RMB ended the week near multi-year highs, but the fixing continues to signal some resistance to the pace of appreciation."
"Friday’s USDCNY midpoint was nudged slightly higher to 6.7817 and remained around 550 pips above market expectations, suggesting the PBoC remains comfortable with gradual RMB strength but is leaning against an overly rapid or one-way move."
"Softer USD dynamics and exporter conversions should remain supportive, though the fixing behaviour reinforces our view that any further appreciation is likely to remain gradual."
"USD/CNH last closed at 6.7210 levels. Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell into oversold conditions. Bias remains skewed to the downside though risk of snapback not ruled out."
"Resistance at 6.7480 (21 DMA), 6.7540. Support here at 6.72, 6.7140 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2022 low to triple-top) and 6.70 levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD slips as buyers fail to clear the $70.00 resistance.
- Bullish RSI softens, suggesting short-term momentum is fading.
- Break below $68.42 exposes $65.64 and $62.19 support.
Silver (XAG/USD) price reverses course on Monday, down 0.59% as buyers failed to push the white metal past $70.00, which exacerbated a reversal to the first support level at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.42. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $68.52, after peaking at $69.92.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver’s uptrend remains intact, despite retreating to the 100-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though buyers lost some momentum in the short term.
XAG’s market structure of higher highs and higher lows suggests further upside, but bulls must reclaim the $70.00 milestone before setting their sights on the 200-day SMA at $72.13. In that outcome, the next resistance is the May 25 cycle high at $78.83.
On the downside, XAG/USD's initial support is at the 100-day SMA at $68.42. If it breaks, the next level is the August 20 low of $65.64, then the August 19 swing low of $62.19, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.34.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a cautious stance on USD/SGD after Friday’s drop to 1.2682 and close near 1.2700. In the very near term, they expect the pair to stay confined between 1.2680 and 1.2715, while over the coming weeks the bias remains lower toward 1.2670, provided resistance at 1.2750 caps rebounds.
Downside bias with capped rebounds
"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 1.2715 last Friday, we stated that “the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.2700 and 1.2730.” However, instead of consolidating, USD declined to a low of 1.2682. USD recovered from the low to close 0.19% lower at 1.2699. Despite declining, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum, and instead of continuing to decline today, USD is more likely to trade in a range of 1.2680/1.2715."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative USD view since early this month (see annotations in the chart below). In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (20 Aug, spot at 1.2710), we highlighted that “while the risk for USD remains on the downside, oversold conditions could slow the pace of any further decline.” We also highlighted that “the next level to monitor is 1.2670.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2750 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.2760) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold clears the 200-day SMA, opening the door to further gains.
- Bessent sanctions Iran-linked networks, boosting haven demand for bullion.
- Jackson Hole, GDP and Core PCE guide the next catalyst.
Gold (XAU/USD) price resumes its advance on Monday and refreshes three-month highs at $4,681 as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent crosses the wires to reveal sanctions on Iran-linked entities, while investors await a speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,631, up 0.62%.
XAU/USD rises as Bessent sanctions and lower yields support bullion
Bullion has turned bullish after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,516 last Friday, opening the door to further upside. Nevertheless, from a market-structure perspective, it is neutral to upward-biased until XAU clears the May 7 high at $4,764.
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announced “unprecedented” economic measures against Iran, saying they’re focusing on Tehran’s “most vital lifelines,” which include digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. According to the Treasury, it sanctioned nearly 60 entities linked to Iran, including a network of broker companies and shadow fleet vessels across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland, and Europe.
The economic operation is called 'Outcast,' and Bessent said the actions aim to block every potential source of revenue funding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Bessent added that US President Donald Trump is calling world leaders to cut economic ties with Iran.
Recent developments in the Middle East have increased Gold’s appeal as a haven. The World Gold Council (WGC) showed that bullion ETFs attracted inflows of 46.7 million tons, worth $6.4 billion, last week, the largest jump in 10 months, sparked by North American and European-listed funds.
US Treasury yields edged lower as Bessent crossed the wires, with the 10-year T-note yield falling by 3.5 basis points to 4.700%, a tailwind for the yellow metal. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against six currencies, is up 0.22% at 99.05, with buyers reclaiming the 99.00 figure after hitting three-month lows.
Traders are focused on the release of US growth, inflation and jobs data, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s rally extends, the next target is $4,700
Price action shows that Gold reclaimed the May 29 high of $4,595, paving the way to conquer $4,600. Momentum remains bullish, entering its strongest phase as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced the 70 overbought level. Although most traders see it as a potential sign of a reversal, during a strong uptrend, the RSI can turn overbought above the 80-85 level. In this case, the potential for a reversal increases, so XAU is poised to extend its gains.
The first resistance for XAU/USD is $4,700. Above is the May 7 swing high of $4,764, ahead of testing $4,800. A breach of the latter clears the way back to $5,000.
For a bearish resumption, sellers must drive the XAU price to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,516. The next stop below is $4,500, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,379.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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