Forex News
TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s communication reaffirmed a tightening bias, with discussion of a pre-emptive hike and risks that the hiking cycle could start earlier than TD’s current February next-year call.
Higher inflation and pre-emptive hike discussion
"The RBNZ kept the cash rate on hold at 2.25% as expected."
"Today's release revealed the Bank now expects headline inflation to print at 3% y/y for Q1 and 4.2% y/y in Q2 (assuming crude <$100), the print for Q2 well off the 2.7% Feb MPS forecast."
"Our read of today's release if anything reaffirms the Bank's bias to tighten."
"The Board did discuss a pre-emptive hike but held off given "…this could cause unnecessary volatility in output and employment if the conflict was resolved in the near term or if the economic outlook weakens by more than currently expected"."
"The Bank's Feb MPS OCR forecast implied a cash rate hike by the end of this year but given the points highlighted above there is a risk the RBNZ acts earlier, and hence to our call for the hike cycle to begin in Feb next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD pulls back to 0.7040 from session highs at 0.7085.
- The Aussie has rallied more than 2% so far this week.
- Recent Australian data has increased concerns about the inflationary impact of energy prices.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, boosted by investors’ optimism about the ceasefire in Iran. The pair, however, has retreated from session highs at 0.7084 during the European trading session, returning to levels around 0.7040 at the time of writing as the dust from the US-Iran deal settled.
News that Washington and Tehran had reached a deal to stop the hostilities for two weeks, less than two hours before US President Trump’s deadline, was welcomed by the market during Wednesday’s Asian session. Risk-sensitive assets like the Aussie rallied sharply while the US Dollar and Oil prices retreated sharply.
Direct US-Iran negotiations
The deal is still fragile, and Iran said it keeps its finger on the trigger, but the market remains hopeful that Tuesday’s agreement might lead to a durable peace and lower energy prices. Iranian authorities also affirmed that direct talks with US negotiators will start on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, feeding hopes of de-escalation of the tensions in a highly volatile area.
Data from Australia released earlier this week showed that the TM-MI Inflation Gauge posted its sharpest monthly advance in history, with a 1.3% increase in March, following a 0.2% decline in February. Year-on-year, inflation accelerated to 4.3%, its highest level in more than two years. These figures increase concerns of stagflation and pose a significant challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policymakers.
In the US, the focus on Wednesday will be on the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which might give some further insight into the bank's next monetary policy steps. These comments, however, will be contrasted by Friday’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, the first hard data reflecting the inflationary impact of Iran’s war.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- The Indian Rupee nears a three-week high against the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.
- Iran delivers a 10-point proposal plan to the US, which includes recognition of Tehran’s authority at Hormuz.
- The RBI leaves its Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh over three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.55% to near 99.00. WTI Oil price plummets almost 11% to near $90.00.
Trump suspends planned Iranian attacks
Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges for two weeks, as he has agreed to a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Meanwhile, Iran has also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening and the delivery of the 10-point proposal, which includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.
The Hormuz reopening has battered the Oil prices badly, a scenario that is favorable for currencies of economies like India, which rely heavily on Oil imports to meet their energy needs.
However, the continuation of the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling in the Indian stock market is expected to cap the upside in the Indian Rupee. So far in April, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 35,121.56 crore.
RBI keeps Repo Rate steady at 5.25%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept key interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, keeping the Repo Rate steady at 5.25%. The Indian central bank was expected to maintain the status quo, as the war in the Middle East has increased inflation globally.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated in the monetary policy statement that higher Oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to impact growth this year. “Elevated crude oil prices could increase imported inflation and widen the current account deficit,” Malhotra said.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR faces selling pressure near 20-day EMA
USD/INR declines to near 92.30 on Wednesday. The pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), shifting the near-term bias to mildly bearish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 47, moving below the 50 midline and confirming that sellers have gained control after the overbought readings seen above 70 in late March.
Immediate support emerges at 92.00 and then 91.50, where the previous consolidation zone sits. On the topside, initial resistance is now located at 93.00, with stronger resistance at 93.70 ahead of the recent 95.12 peak. As long as price holds below this resistance band while RSI remains under 50, rallies are expected to be capped and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)
The RBI Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of India. If the bank is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates, it is seen as positive, or bullish, for the INR, while a dovish outlook for the economy (or a rate cut) is seen as negative, or bearish, for the currency.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 5.25%
Consensus: 5.25%
Previous: 5.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of India
- USD/CHF accelerates its reversal below 0.7900 amid a higher risk appetite.
- A two-week ceasefire in Iran has boosted investors' mood.
- The pair has broken the bullish structure from late-February lows.
The US Dollar (USD) accelerated its reversal against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday, as investors pared back US Dollar long positions following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran. The pair’s reversal from weekly highs right above 0.8000 extended to session lows near 0.7870 before picking up to the 0.7890 area at the time of writing.
The Greenback tumbled across the board following news reporting that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to stop the hostilities for two weeks, and allow safe passage for Gas and Oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF breaks the bullish trendline support
The USD/CHF has slipped back below the ascending trendline support, confirming the end of the bullish cycle from February 27 lows. and providing bears confidence for a deeper correction.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 30 after dropping from above 60, signaling building downside momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds below its signal line in negative territory, endorsing the view that rallies toward the recent breakdown area will face selling pressure.
The pair is now featuring a frail recovery attempt, but the support area between the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March rally at 0.7860 and March 23 lows at 0.7835 is likely to attract selling pressure. On the upside, previous support at 0.7905 (April 1 low) is likely to act now as resistance ahead of the broken trendline, now at 0.7965.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.76% | -1.04% | -0.73% | -0.10% | -0.91% | -1.44% | -1.08% | |
| EUR | 0.76% | -0.30% | 0.02% | 0.66% | -0.17% | -0.74% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 1.04% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.96% | 0.17% | -0.41% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.73% | -0.02% | -0.30% | 0.64% | -0.15% | -0.72% | -0.34% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.66% | -0.96% | -0.64% | -0.78% | -1.34% | -0.99% | |
| AUD | 0.91% | 0.17% | -0.17% | 0.15% | 0.78% | -0.58% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | 1.44% | 0.74% | 0.41% | 0.72% | 1.34% | 0.58% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | 1.08% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.99% | 0.20% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Commerzbank notes that the Dollar is selling off as risk sentiment improves, with the Euro rising close to 1.17 against the Dollar following the ceasefire news. The bank highlights that an extended ceasefire would make an April ECB rate hike unlikely and sees the €STR curve’s previously aggressive pricing as a backdrop for bullish steepening in Euro rates.
Dollar weakness lifts single currency
"Brent slides to $95, US Treasuries bull-steepen with 10y yields falling 6bp. Asian equities and e-minis rally with Stoxx future up some 5%. Dollar sells off with EUR rising close to $1.17."
"If the ceasefire gets extended, an ECB rate hike in April, and beyond, becomes unlikely. The €STR curve was pricing some 80bp of rate hikes yesterday, about the most since the war began, which should give rise to strong bullish steepening."
"Just before the Easter break, the ECB published a blog post with insights from their Bank Treasurer Survey on preferred reserve levels and their proprietary Securities Financing Transactions Data."
"While transparency remains patchy, the findings support our view that reserve scarcity is still a long way off. The ECB projects that, by the end of this year, banks accounting for 50% of total assets will reach their preferred reserve level, up from 26% 'now' (which we understand to refer to last October). Unfortunately, the ECB does not disclose the aggregate preferred reserve level, akin to the Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves (PMRR) revealed by the BoE."
"While this is probably towards the lower (or later) end of the scale, we feel affirmed in our view that the point at which reserve scarcity will cause upward pressure on rates and lead to banks returning to ECB operations on a larger scale is unlikely to be reached before next year."
"While repo markets remain calm for now, by the end of the year we believe this will become another argument for cheaper Schatz swap spreads."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold surged over 2% to above USD4800 after a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reduced immediate escalation risks. He highlights that the sustainability of this truce and the recovery of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will guide Gold’s next move, while structural demand, including continued PBoC buying, remains supportive.
Ceasefire reprices risk and supports bullion
"Gold rallied following this morning's announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran."
"Looking ahead, the sustainability of this temporary truce will likely dictate the next directional move for gold."
"If vessel throughput normalises to a credible rate during this two-week window, it will establish a favorable foundation for a more definitive, long-term ceasefire that should continue to support gold's upward trajectory."
"Beyond these geopolitical swings, gold's structural demand remains robust. The PBoC extended its purchasing streak to a 17th consecutive month in March, adding 160,000 troy ounces to its reserves."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/GBP accelerates its decline, reaching session lows at 0.8700.
- A two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has boosted risk appetite.
- ECB speakers have reiterated the need for a tighter monetary policy.
The Euro (EUR) accelerated its decline against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, with bears testing support at 0.8700 at the time of writing. The Pound fares better than the common currency amid the positive market sentiment triggered by the ceasefire in Iran.
News that the US and Iran had reached a deal for a two-week ceasefire that includes the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz has boosted risk appetite on Wednesday, triggering sharp rallies of the Euro and the Pound against the safe-haven US Dollar.
The agreement arrived less than two hours before the US President Donald Trump’s deadline of Tuesday, 8:00 PM Easter time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday), and following a gloomy comment from the US president, who said that “a whole civilisation would die” if Iran failed to accept his demands.
With Macroeconomic events gaining prominence amid the ceasefire, data from the UK and the Euro Area have failed to cheer investors. UK housing prices contracted against expectations in March, while in the EU, German Factory Orders growth missed expectations, producer prices contracted further, and retail sales dropped.
Eurozone figures, however, relate to the month of February, before the start of Iran war and therefore, they have been practically ignored by the market.
On Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) officials, Dimitar Radev and Pierre Wunsch reiterated the bank’s concerns about growing inflationary risks, with the latter advocating for a rate hike as early as in April. These comments contrast with the Bank of England’s “wait and see” stance and provide some support to the Euro.
(This story was corrected on April 8 at 11:25 GMT to amend the line that stated that the pair had depreciated for the third consecutive day.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index (MoM)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). Generally, a high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.7%
Consensus: -0.7%
Previous: 0.7%
Source: Eurostat
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures the volume of retail sales in the Eurozone. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term, which accounts for around 5% of the total value added of the Eurozone economies. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the prior month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.2%
Consensus: -0.2%
Previous: -0.1%
Source: Eurostat
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $76.91 per troy ounce, up 5.38% from the $72.98 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have increased by 8.19% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 76.91 |
1 Gram | 2.47 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 62.35 on Wednesday, down from 64.48 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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