Forex News
ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.
Headline CPI seen near 4 percent
"The final September CPI reading released on Wednesday should confirm that headline inflation rose to 4% YoY, while core inflation eased, indicating that broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services."
"Yet the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027."
"The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026."
"As a result, headline CPI should run within the 3.5-4.0% YoY range by the end of the year."
"We forecast that in August the current account deficit was slightly higher than €2bn, but slightly lower than in August 2025."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI trades flat as markets weigh hopes of reduced US-Iran tensions against persistent supply risks.
- Fresh IRGC warnings and a tanker attack keep risk around the Strait of Hormuz elevated.
- Saudi supply conditions improve, while Hurricane Isaias cuts US Gulf production.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades little changed on Friday as traders weigh easing fears of an immediate US-Iran military escalation against persistent supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $90.65 per barrel, up 0.10% on the day.
Oil prices pared some of their gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections while reiterating that Tehran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon.
US Vice President JD Vance also told Reuters earlier this week that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to end the war. A senior Iranian official responded that Tehran would not give up its right to enrich uranium and said Washington’s proposals remain at odds with Iran’s demands.
Iran has also maintained that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until its conditions are met. On Friday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that vessels using what it considers unauthorised routes could be pursued beyond the Strait and across the wider region.
The latest warning followed reports from Iran’s Tasnim News that a large liquefied petroleum gas tanker had been hit and caught fire. The IRGC blamed the United States for the escalation in regional maritime tensions.
Elsewhere, the supply picture remains mixed. Regional crude exports are improving, led by Saudi Arabia after the restart of its East-West pipeline, which allows crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis keeps risks to regional energy infrastructure elevated. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias has forced producers to shut down around 1.3 million barrels per day, or 62.9% of Gulf of Mexico Oil production.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.
Economist sees unemployment rate easing
"Canada's labour market lost 68,000 jobs in September, driven by losses in public sectors (education and health care), piling onto the 42,000-job loss in the prior month."
"The monthly employment counts are notoriously volatile, and there are reasons not to read too much into the softer reading too quickly."
"Looking ahead, we continue to point to important leading indicators such as job openings from Indeed.com as indications that hiring demand has not retreated to a problematic extent since new U.S. tariffs (that cover a small scope of Canadian exports) were imposed."
"We expect progress made in Canada's labour market earlier will be largely sustained, and the unemployment rate to broadly edge lower through the end of 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
American consumer confidence declined in early October, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.
The closely watched Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to weaken to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, missing economists’ expectations of 47.3 and signalling a slightly worse backdrop for public confidence.
Furthermore, the Current Conditions index dropped to 44.7 from 50.9, while the Expectations gauge rose to 47.3 from 46.3, highlighting some change of view regarding the months ahead.
Inflation expectations, meanwhile, increased. The one-year outlook ticked higher to 4.7% from 4.6%, and the five-year forecast climbed to 3.5% from 3.4%, suggesting that consumers are seeing some strengthening momentum in price pressures, in line with recent inflation data.
Market reaction
The US Dollar remains well bid amid the widespread offered stance in the risk-associated universe, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) navigating the 102.30 region in the wake of the data release, reversing Thursday’s retracement.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.30% | 0.39% | -0.19% | 0.00% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | -0.12% | 0.14% | 0.21% | -0.35% | -0.14% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.12% | 0.25% | 0.37% | -0.24% | -0.01% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.30% | -0.14% | -0.25% | 0.10% | -0.49% | -0.28% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.39% | -0.21% | -0.37% | -0.10% | -0.61% | -0.39% | -0.43% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.35% | 0.24% | 0.49% | 0.61% | 0.22% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.00% | 0.28% | 0.39% | -0.22% | -0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.33% | 0.43% | -0.19% | 0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
(This story was corrected on October 9 at 14:59 GMT to say that the September Consumer Sentiment Index print was 48.1 instead of 47.6)
This section below was published as a preview of the preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October at 12:30 GMT.
- The Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is forecast to decline for a third consecutive month in October.
- Crude Oil prices picked up ahead of the release amid concerns of renewed Middle East tensions.
- The US Dollar Index maintains upward pressure near its 2026 peak in the 102.50 region ahead of the release.
The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of the United States (US) October Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. The UoM report, which analyses US consumers’ feelings about their personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing plans, is expected to decline for a third consecutive month, as market analysts anticipate a reading of 47.6 following the 48.1 printed in September. The September reading was the second-lowest historical level, barely above the historic low of 44.8 posted in May.
Alongside headline Consumer Sentiment, the UoM releases 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, currently at 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively. The Federal Reserve (Fed) vouches for inflation to remain around 2%, hence, the recent decision to tighten monetary policy by hiking the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). Indeed, UoM’s report is nothing more than a reflection of consumers’ expectations of price pressures and is far from an official figure. Still, the numbers reflect American reality as the Middle East war pushes energy prices higher.
What to expect from October’s UoM Consumer Sentiment Index report?
The Middle East war has been the market’s main driver. What started as a conflict between Iran and Israel ended up being a regional crisis that includes the US. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in Oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and resulting in outrageous energy-related inflation. The conflict, which started in February, has seen different stages, with hopes for a quick resolution fading as time goes by.
Investors remain distrustful despite crude Oil flows in the Persian Gulf returning to near pre-war levels. Oil prices are back up, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures up roughly 5% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said he no longer wants a deal with Iran, while discussing resuming large-scale military operations on Iran in the upcoming weeks.
His comments do little to build confidence among Americans seeing persistently elevated energy and food prices. Still, it’s worth mentioning that price pressures moved off their yearly peaks. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4% in the year to August, down from the 4% posted earlier in the year. Core PCE during the same period rose 3%, still above the Fed’s goal but again easing from its 2026 peak.
The recent spike in Oil prices is likely to maintain inflation expectations elevated and hence, confidence subdued.
When will the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index be released, and how could it affect the US Dollar?
The University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations on Friday at 14:00 GMT. As previously noted, market players anticipate sentiment will continue to deteriorate in October. Ahead of the announcement, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds well above the 102 mark, not far below this year’s peak achieved in October at 102.53.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The US Dollar (USD) benefits from both risk aversion amid fears of an escalation of the Middle East war and speculation that the Fed will have to hike interest rates again before the year ends. From a technical perspective, and according to the daily chart, the DXY is overbought but still bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at extremes, yet off its recent peak. Furthermore, the index develops above all its moving averages, with the shorter 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north after crossing above the longer 100-day and 200-day SMAs, usually a sign of building directional momentum.”
Bednarik adds: “The mentioned peak in the 102.50 region provides immediate resistance, with gains beyond it exposing the 103.00 threshold ahead of the 103.45 area. The weekly low at 101.76 is the first support level to watch, with additional declines exposing the 101.30 price zone. The closer the index approaches 101.00, the higher the chances buyers reappear.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 09, 2026 14:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 47.6
Previous: 48.1
Source: University of Michigan
Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are covering Gold shorts, with positioning rising by around 7% of maximum historical size. They note renewed inflows into Chinese Gold ETFs after the holiday and continued global ETF demand. The strategists argue that persistent geopolitical, fiscal and stagflation risks support flows and set up a potential Gold bull run into 2027.
CTAs cover shorts as ETF inflows return
"CTAs are covering shorts across gold and platinum as strong fundamental backdrop for precious metals insulates the market."
"The yellow metal is gaining on the day with CTAs back on the bid, covering shorts by some 7% of historic max position size."
"Geopolitical risk, fiscal concern, dollar debasement, de-dollarization and stagflation concerns all remain major supportive factors for these flows in gold."
"We continue to see the stage being set for the yellow metal to disconnect from real rates further and begin a new bull run into 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research anticipates India’s September inflation to rise to 5.7% year-on-year from 4.8%, driven by broad-based food price gains and higher non-food fuel costs. Core inflation is expected to tick up as uneven monsoon conditions and elevated Oil prices add pressure, leading DBS to expect the RBI to keep the door open for a possible rate hike in December 2026.
Higher headline CPI and policy implications
"September inflation is likely to gather momentum to 5.7% y/y, partly driven by base effects, from 4.8% the month before."
"Food segments continue to register gains, with pressures broadening to include perishables, edible oils, rice, pulses, sugar, etc., according to high-frequency data."
"Core inflation is also likely to tick up, aligning with the central bank's view that price risks are no longer benign."
"Pressures have built up due to the overhang of an uneven and sub-par monsoon, drought conditions in parts of the country, and elevated oil prices."
"In the face of higher headline prints, we expect the RBI to keep the door open for another rate hike in December 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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