Forex News
- DJIA closed at a record high on Wednesday, extending its rebound off the April low.
- Alphabet's late-June addition to the price-weighted index has increased its tech and AI exposure.
- Nonfarm Payrolls, pulled forward to a shortened Thursday session, is the week's key risk.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a fresh record on Wednesday, clipping 52,500 and completing a round trip from April's rout to all-time highs. The headline number flatters the detail underneath it, because the index that set this record is not quite the one that traded a week ago. A blue-chip average printing highs on a day its semiconductor leaders were being sold deserves a closer look than the round of congratulation it received.
The Dow quietly turned into an AI index
On June 29, Alphabet replaced Verizon among the thirty names in the average, and in a price-weighted index that swap matters more than it sounds. Verizon, trading under $50, barely registered; Alphabet, changing hands near $350, immediately became one of the most influential stocks in the benchmark. A single mega-cap with heavy exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud now moves the Dow far more than the telecom it displaced. With Alphabet aboard, five of the so-called Magnificent Seven sit inside a benchmark once built on railroads and steel, so the average can grind to records even when the wider chip trade is taking profit. The record owes as much to who is now in the index as to any broad advance across it.
Quarter-end flows do the rest
The calendar has been lending a hand as well. The turn of the quarter forces pension funds and institutional managers to rebalance, selling what has run and buying what has lagged, and this quarter-end has been an unusually lopsided one given how far sectors have diverged. Those flows flatter an index at highs, but they are mechanical rather than fundamental, and they can unwind just as fast once the new month settles in. Wednesday was the first day of that new month.
A labour market freezing, not cracking
Beneath the record, the latest data pointed to a labour market that is stalling rather than accelerating. Private payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) rose just 98K in June, below the 110K the market wanted and down from 122K a month earlier. Layoffs, though, are not surging; announced job cuts fell sharply on the month, leaving a low-hire, low-fire economy that is neither hot enough to worry the hawks nor weak enough to force a rescue. The rest of the day's numbers told the same lukewarm story. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slipped to 53.3 from 54, still above the line dividing growth from contraction but hardly booming, while the Federal Reserve (Fed), having held policy at its June meeting, keeps repeating that prices remain too high. That is not the language of a central bank about to ride to the rescue.
Nonfarm Payrolls on a shortened tape
The week's real test lands Thursday at 12:30 GMT, when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives a day early: US markets close Friday for the Independence Day holiday and shut early on Thursday afternoon. Consensus looks for around 110K new jobs, a clear step down from 172K, with average hourly earnings seen near 3.5% YoY and unemployment steady at 4.3%. What makes the setup awkward is that a soft print will not automatically buy rate cuts from a Fed still fixated on inflation; a big downside surprise would more likely read as a growth scare than a dovish gift, and thin pre-holiday liquidity would only amplify it.
Levels to watch
Resistance: With price in record territory just above 52,500, there is no overhead supply to lean on; the next magnet is the round 53,000 handle, while Wednesday's session high near 52,550 caps the immediate move.
Support: First support sits at the 52,000 handle, then the late-June shelf around 51,500. Below that, the early-June swing low near 50,000 marks the last real pullback zone and a major psychological line.
Bias: Higher while 52,000 holds, but this is not a level to chase. The advance of more than 16% off the April low leaves the index stretched, and with part of the record resting on a composition change and quarter-end flows that can reverse, the organic case is thinner than the chart suggests. A downside NFP surprise on a half-day tape is the likeliest trigger for a shakeout toward 51,500, and buying strength here is a bet on momentum alone, with neither the Fed nor the data offering a floor.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Warsh rejects guidance, keeping price stability as the Fed's priority.
- ADP misses forecasts, hinting at softer private hiring momentum.
- Burnham's fiscal pledge keeps UK political risks contained.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers a 0.14% gain on Wednesday amid broad US Dollar (USD) strength and comments by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated that the central bank would not provide forward guidance, despite accepting that inflation remains too high. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3277 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3219.
GBP/USD rises as weak US jobs data offsets Dollar strength
At the European Central Bank’s annual policy symposium in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh acknowledged that the Fed doesn’t accept inflation above the 2% target, added that inflation is too high and that the labor market remains steady. He offered no further guidance but stated that the Fed would remain focused on price stability.
The Greenback barely moved on Warsh’s remarks, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD versus six other currencies, at 101.34, up 0.17%.
Data in the US was mixed, with the ADP Employment Change in June missing estimates of 113K, coming at 98K below May’s 122K. At the same time, the Challenger Job Cuts in June dropped 53%, from 97,006 to 45,849. Digging into the report, layoffs cooled in June due to seasonality, according to Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at Challenger, Grey & Christmas, who added that employers announced 443,604 job cuts, down 40% compared to the same period last year.
In the UK, investors are focused on politics, following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham, the leader who will succeed him, calmed markets after reiterating that he will stick to the fiscal rules imposed by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Aside from this, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates have tempered, following the US-Iran deal, bringing Oil prices lower. The swaps markets expect at least one rate hike from the BoE in 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
What’s next in the economic calendar
Focus shifts to US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Thursday, with the US economy expected to add 110K people to its workforce. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3269, maintaining a bearish tone as it holds below the key simple moving average (SMA) cluster around 1.3415, while remaining capped well below the downward resistance trend line near 1.3524. The price location beneath these overhead levels suggests rallies are still corrective, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 44 hinting at subdued upside momentum rather than an immediate oversold rebound.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the upward support trend line starting around 1.3159, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline if the pair extends its pullback. On the topside, a close above the SMA cluster at 1.3415 would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure, while the descending resistance trend line around 1.3524 remains a higher cap that would need to be reclaimed to signal a more meaningful shift in the broader technical picture.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Warsh reaffirmed that returning inflation to 2% remains the Fed's top priority.
- He expressed optimism on US growth, labour markets and the long-term benefits of AI.
- He also reiterated the Fed's independence and offered no new policy signals.
At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh largely followed the script, offering little to change the market’s current view on monetary policy. He said inflation risks and short-term inflation expectations had eased in recent weeks, but he reiterated that prices remain too high and stressed that the central bank remains steadfast in its commitment to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.
Warsh also offered a mostly optimistic view on the US economy, saying labour market conditions were stable and the outlook for growth may have improved. He sounded optimistic about artificial intelligence, saying the US is well-placed to gain from the technology but warning it was too soon to know whether AI would ultimately prove inflationary or disinflationary.
On the institutional front, the Fed Chair reiterated the independence of the central bank and confirmed that the ongoing review of its communications framework and policy tools remains on track. He also reaffirmed his longstanding preference for interest rates to be the Fed's main policy tool, while indicating that any future adjustments to balance sheet policy would be carefully considered and clearly communicated.
Overall, the comments did not provide any new information but reaffirmed last week’s hawkish policy message. The Fed remains optimistic on the medium-term outlook for the US economy even as the global backdrop has grown more uncertain. But price stability remains the “overriding priority” for the Fed.
- AUD/USD dropped as investors reacted to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI staying in expansion but easing from May’s level.
- US labor market signals softened after ADP private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below expectations.
- Australia’s Trade Balance is the next key catalyst with markets watching whether exports, especially iron ore and coal, can continue to support the Aussie.
AUD/USD fell to 0.6900 on Wednesday and is now trading cautiously as investors digest mixed United States (US) economic data. The latest ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showing factory activity remained in expansion, while ADP private payrolls pointed to a softer pace of hiring.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June from 54.0 in May, missing expectations for an unchanged reading. Despite the pullback, the index remained above the 50.0 threshold, showing that the manufacturing sector expanded for the sixth consecutive month. New Orders slipped to 56.0 from 56.8, while the Prices Paid Index fell to 73.0 from 82.1, suggesting that input prices cooled but remained elevated.
The US Dollar (USD) initially found some support as manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory. However, the upside was limited after the ADP National Employment Report showed that private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 118,000 expected and down from May’s 122,000 increase.
The softer ADP reading added caution ahead of the official US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report as investors continue to assess whether the labor market is cooling enough to affect the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. For AUD/USD, the data mix keeps the pair caught between a resilient US economy and signs of slower job creation.
On the Australian side, attention now turns to the upcoming Trade Balance data on Thursday. Australia’s previous April report showed a goods trade surplus of A$1.8 billion, returning to surplus after March’s unexpected deficit. The improvement was driven by a rebound in resource exports, especially iron ore and coal, while imports rose only 0.8% MoM.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6903, holding just above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6895, while remaining well below the 100-period SMA at 0.6980, keeping the broader tone neutral and capped. The pair is pivoting around a horizontal level at 0.6903, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49 hinting at balanced momentum after the recent recovery from oversold territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6916, ahead of a more significant cap near 0.6930, while the 100-period SMA at 0.6980 forms a higher barrier that would need to give way to revive a sustained bullish phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA around 0.6895, followed by the horizontal floor at 0.6882, where a break lower would expose deeper weakness in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- EUR/USD pares losses as softer-than-expected US data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks weigh on the US Dollar.
- Hawkish Fed bets limit the US Dollar's downside ahead of Thursday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
- Weaker-than-expected Eurozone inflation tempered expectations for additional ECB tightening this year.
EUR/USD pares some of its losses on Wednesday as softer-than-expected US economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh weigh on the US Dollar (USD).
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1387 after recovering from an intraday low of 1.1361, though it remains down about 0.30% on the day.
Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra on Wednesday, Warsh said, "We're not going to give forward guidance," adding, "We'll chart a new course so we can make better decisions." He also noted that "inflation risks have come down."
On the data front, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls increased by 98K in June, below market expectations of 113K and down from 122K in May. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 53.3 in June from 54 in May, missing market forecasts of 54.
In response, the US Dollar came under modest selling pressure. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.34 after retreating from an intraday high of 101.59.
However, Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer.
Markets are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Attention now turns to Thursday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh clues on the labor market and the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Earlier in the day, softer-than-expected Eurozone inflation data tempered expectations for another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike this year, limiting gains in the Euro despite the weaker US Dollar.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the ECB Forum in Sintra that "risks are more broadly balanced than a few weeks ago" and that the Eurozone is "not in stagflation." She added that the ECB "will take necessary steps to contain inflation."
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Banco de la República delivered a larger-than-expected 75bp hike to 12%, reinforcing a restrictive stance as inflation and expectations stay well above target. The bank highlights upside risks from El Niño, wages and food/fuel prices, and maintains its forecast for a 12.50% terminal rate, with downside risks now reduced and policy likely to stay tight into 2027.
BanRep frontloads tightening cycle
"Banco de la República (BanRep) resumed its tightening cycle with a hawkish 75bp hike to 12%, exceeding both our 50bp call and market consensus."
"While the absence of explicit forward guidance reinforces the Bank’s data-dependent approach, the scale of the move signals willingness to tighten further if inflation dynamics worsen."
"Near-term risks remain skewed to the upside—including El Niño, wage indexation, and food and fuel price volatility—but improved policy credibility should help stabilize the front end and anchor medium-term expectations."
"We continue to see the terminal rate at 12.50%, with downside risks now materially reduced."
"Over the medium term, a more orthodox fiscal trajectory could open the door to easing in 1Q27, but for now, policy will remain firmly restrictive amid still-unanchored inflation and political uncertainty."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rises more than 3% as weaker-than-expected US data and a softer US Dollar support precious metals.
- Kevin Warsh's remarks reinforce expectations of a cautious Fed approach ahead of key US labor market data.
- Investors now turn their attention to Thursday's US NFP report for further clues on the Fed's policy outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday and trades around $60.35, up 3.19% at the time of writing. The white metal is supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) following softer-than-expected US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh.
Speaking at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra, Warsh said the Fed would not provide forward guidance and would adopt a new approach to make better policy decisions. He also noted that inflation risks have eased, putting pressure on the Greenback and supporting precious metals.
On the macroeconomic front, the ADP Employment Change report showed that US private payrolls increased by 98K in June, below market expectations of 113K and following a gain of 122K in May. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 53.3 in June from 54 previously, also missing market expectations.
Markets are now focused on Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decisions.
Despite Wednesday's rebound, interest rate expectations remain a key driver for precious metals. Investors continue to price in a restrictive monetary policy stance, with the possibility of a rate hike later this year. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, limiting the metal's upside potential over the medium term.
On the geopolitical front, progress toward a final US-Iran peace agreement remains slow. Although US and Iranian officials are in Doha, no direct talks are currently scheduled, maintaining some safe-haven demand for precious metals.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
DBS' Senior Economist Radhika Rao with data support from Daisy Sharma, highlights that India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% year-on-year in 1Q26, slightly below the revised 8.0% in 3QFY26. The Nowcast model points to softer momentum ahead, with growth seen easing in 2Q26 and full-year 2026 GDP projected below 2025 levels.
Growth moderation signaled
"This week’s featured insight is on GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter."
"Today we focus on India’s real GDP for 1Q26 (4QFY26), released earlier this month."
"The economy grew 7.8% yoy from a revised 8.0% in 3QFY26 (Oct-Dec25)."
"As per the Nowcast model, growth is expected to moderate to 6.9% in 2Q26 (1QFY27), driven by softer industrial activity, freight traffic, sales of farm tractors and commercial vehicles."
"We expect 2026 growth to average 6.5% (CY) from 7.8% in 2025."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Kyle Dahms notes that the Canadian economy began Q2 on a stronger-than-expected footing, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosted by energy, manufacturing and construction. He highlights that energy strength and inventory rebuilding should support volumes, and that real GDP is tracking a solid annualized gain, though he stresses the outlook remains fragile given tariffs, housing and inflation headwinds.
Energy-led growth with fragile outlook
"The Canadian economy started the second quarter on a stronger footing than expected, with real GDP rising 0.5% in April, above consensus expectations of 0.4%. While broad-based, the rebound was led by the energy sector, which rose 3.1% as mining/quarrying/oil & gas extraction surged 2.9%."
"Much of April’s gain reflected a normalization in oil sands and pipeline activity following earlier disruptions, but energy should remain supportive through Q2 given elevated prices in May and much of June, as well as higher volumes given demand for stable sources of supply amid global uncertainty."
"Looking ahead, price pressures should ease, but volumes could remain supported as inventories drawn down in Q2 are rebuilt."
"Still, including this preliminary estimate, real GDP growth in the second quarter is tracking a 2.3% annualized increase, a strong pace given the headwinds facing the economy. Adjusted for the decline in population, growth looks even stronger, with GDP per capita tracking a 2.8% annualized increase in Q2."
"However, the outlook remains fragile. Tariff uncertainty, weak resale activity in major housing markets, and the lingering inflation impact from previously elevated energy prices continue to represent meaningful headwinds for consumers and business investment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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