Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 17:
Financial markets adopt a cautios stance on Friday as investors refrain from betting on risky assets, while waiting for clarity on the next round of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran. The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases, allowing investors to remain focused on geopolitics and comments from central bank policymakers.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.06% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.15% | 0.02% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.06% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.06% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Later in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that Israel has not agreed to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Israeli military announced that the troops will remain in a 10-km deep security zone in Southern Lebanon and warned residents not to return to the region.
Meanwhile, NBC News reported that a senior Iranian official explained that a permanent ceasefire deal will depend on "adherence to the conditions of Iran and the resistance." Later in the day, the UK and France will chair a meeting on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Representatives from around 40 countires are expected to join the discussions. There are also reports suggesting that the second round of US-Iran talks could happen this weekend.
After closing marginally higher on Thursday, the US Dollar Index holds steady above 98.00 in the European morning on Friday, while US stock index futures trade mixed.
EUR/USD moves sideways near 1.1780 early Friday after losing about 0.15% on Thursday. Later in the session, Eurostat will release February Trade Balance data.
GBP/USD fell 0.25% on Thursday and closed the second consecutive day in negative territory. The pair continues to edge lower and trades slightly above 1.3500 to start the European session on Friday.
USD/JPY fell to a fresh weekly low below 158.30 on Thursday but reversed its direction to close marginally higher. The pair holds its ground and trades comfortably above 159.00 on Friday.
Gold continues to move sideways at around $4,800 after closing virtually unchanged on Thursday.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Gold remains on the defensive, though it lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues.
- The USD is underpinned by Hormuz risks and acts as a headwind for the precious metal.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading Fed rate hike bets cap the USD, supporting the bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to a negative bias for the third straight day on Friday and remains depressed below the $4,800 mark through the first half of the European session. Despite intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict, signs of friction between the US and Iran remained due to the ongoing American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This, in turn, is seen underpinning the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and acting as a headwind for the commodity.
Meanwhile, a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon fueled hopes about a potential US-Iran peace deal. In fact, US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic note and told reporters on Thursday that Iran was close to making a deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, though neither side has set a time or venue for the meeting. Nevertheless, the developments remain supportive of a positive risk tone, which, along with diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), caps the USD recovery from its lowest level since late February and assists Gold to reverse a dip to the $4,768-$4,767 region.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this week eased concerns about the inflationary impact of the war-driven surge in energy prices. Adding to this, bets for a further de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East keep Crude Oil prices on the defensive and temper hawkish Fed expectations. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a Fed rate cut by the year-end, holding back traders from positioning for any further USD gains, and lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of this week's pullback from a nearly one-month high.
Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Friday, leaving the USD at the mercy of speeches from influential FOMC members. The focus, however, will remain glued to another round of US-Iran peace talks, which could take place this weekend. The incoming headlines might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and produce some meaningful opportunities around the Gold. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to post modest gains for the fourth straight week.
(This story was corrected on April 17 at 08:45 GMT to say that the XAU/USD pair remains on track to post modest gains for the fourth straight week, not third.)
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bears retain control as Thursday's failure near 200-period SMA barrier on H4 remains in play
From a technical perspective, the overnight failed attempt to conquer the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart warrants some caution for bullish traders. The subsequent slide, however, stalls ahead of the 50% retracement level of the March fall, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $4,765 support zone before positioning for any further losses.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping further below the zero line with a negative reading. This hints that sellers retain the tactical advantage unless price can reclaim key 200-period SMA resistance, around $4,814. This is followed by a stronger Fibonacci barrier at the 61.8% retracement near $4,912. A sustained break above these hurdles would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward $5,130 and $5,409.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 50.0% retracement at $4,759, and a break below this level would expose the next Fibonacci floors at $4,606 and then $4,416, where buyers would be expected to show more interest in defending the broader uptrend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- NZD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day as Hormuz risks support the safe-haven USD.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading Fed rate hike bets cap the USD, limiting losses for spot prices.
- Traders look to Fed speaks for some impetus, though the focus remains on US-Iran peace talks.
The NZD/USD pair is seen extending the previous day's retracement slide from the 0.5920-0.5925 area, or the highest level since March 11, and drifting lower for the second straight day on Friday. Spot prices remain depressed below the 0.5900 mark through the early European session, though the intraday downtick lacks bearish conviction.
Despite the latest optimism led by a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon, investors remain cautious amid the instability in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This assists the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) in preserving the previous day's modest recovery gains from its lowest level since late February and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the NZD/USD pair. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal.
In fact, US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic note and told reporters on Thursday that Iran was close to making a deal. Adding to this, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, though neither side has set a time or venue for the meeting. Nevertheless, diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict, along with receding hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, keep a lid on further USD gains.
Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a Fed rate cut by the year-end. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, investors might opt to wait for more developments surrounding the US-Iran saga, which might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets and produce some meaningful opportunities. Nevertheless, the currency pair remains on track to register gains for the second week in a row as traders now look to speeches from influential FOMC members for a fresh impetus.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- US Dollar Index may find initial support at the lower descending channel boundary around 97.50.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 40 suggests bearish momentum is easing but remains in control.
- The primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 98.58.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending gains for the second successive day and trading around 98.30 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the dollar index is remaining within the descending channel pattern, suggesting a bearish bias.
The US Dollar Index extends a pullback below the short-term averages, preserving a bearish near-term bias. The nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) now sit overhead after being broken, suggesting former dynamic support has turned into resistance on minor rebounds.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 hints that downside momentum is soft but still dominant.
The primary support lies at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 97.50. A sustained break below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to navigate the region around the 95.56, the lowest since February 2022, which was reached on January 27.
On the upside, the US Dollar Index may target the nine-day EMA at 98.58, followed by the 50-day EMA at 98.87 and the upper boundary of the descending channel around 99.10. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the DXY to target a nearly 10-month high of 100.64, which was recorded on March 31.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research observes that GBP/USD has struggled to extend its rise, stalling just below 1.36 as Bank of England (BoE) officials signal no urgency to raise rates at the April meeting. Despite stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the UK’s 2026 growth outlook, tempering the Pound’s recovery prospects against the Dollar.
Pound rally stalls under 1.36 level
"GBP/USD has similarly struggled to extend gains, stalling just below 1.36."
"Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signalled no urgency to raise rates at the April 30 meeting, while BOE member Alan Taylor warned that markets have overpriced rate hikes."
"Taylor characterised March’s hold decision as a pause within an easing cycle, noting that policy remains restrictive at the current 3.75% bank rate."
"Despite the better-than-expected February GDP growth (0.5% MoM actual vs. the 0.1% consensus), the IMF downgraded the UK’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.3% this week."
"It is still premature to call an end to the EUR and GBP’s recovery."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank economists Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner argue that despite a sharper fall in global oil production than during the 1970s crises, advanced economies should suffer less this time. They highlight smaller price increases, lower oil intensity, and strategic reserves as key buffers, but warn that supply chain disruptions and prolonged damage to Gulf energy infrastructure could still significantly hurt growth.
Historic supply hit but softer macro blow
"In fact, oil production has fallen more sharply due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil production and loading facilities in the Persian Gulf region than during any other oil crisis of the past 50 years. According to the IEA, daily crude oil production has likely fallen by at least 10 million barrels since the start of the Iran War. This amounts to approximately 12% of global oil production."
"Despite the sharper decline in oil production during the current crisis, prices have risen significantly less than in 1973–74 and 1978–79. For example, the annual average oil price in 1974 was 250% higher than in 1973, and in 1979 a barrel of crude oil was still about 125% more expensive than the previous year’s average. This year, however, even under pessimistic assumptions for the coming months, the price is likely to be at most 60% higher than the previous year’s average."
"Furthermore, since oil consumption in developed countries has declined over the past 50 years despite rising economic output, the current loss of purchasing power is likely to be significantly smaller than it was during the first oil crisis. For instance, the first oil crisis caused Germany’s oil bill to rise by 2.5% of gross domestic product, while in Japan the increase amounted to nearly 4% of GDP. Currently, however, for the four countries we are examining, an annual average oil price increase of $40 per barrel is projected to result in an increase in the oil bill of between 0.5% and 1% of GDP."
"Our analysis of the energy market suggests that the consequences of the current energy crisis are unlikely to match the impact of the first oil crisis of 1973–74. However, it still seems too early to sound the all-clear."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that USD dynamics are central to Q2 diversification decisions, as the Rest of World equity index has shown a strong correlation with the USD index. With European Central Bank hikes now priced against limited Fed easing odds, EUR/USD has moved higher, while emerging markets face tighter front-end rates due to intervention risks and the need for a clear USD view.
Dollar path key for global rotation
"Since “liberation day,” the S&P 500 rose 26% while the Rest of World (ROW) top 20 companies rose 13%. The correlation of the ROW index to the USD index stands out in the last year. The current rally up in risk and the return of USD selling has been notable, as stock markets outside the U.S. have recovered to pre-war levels, as has the USD."
"The trend divergence between the S&P 500 and the ROW index is stark, particularly for momentum-driven investors."
"The role of the USD in driving investment flows will connect back to the way global companies manage the current supply shock. Margins and earnings in Q2 will be more critical than Q1 making CEO commentary about their outlooks key for moderating expectations."
"The other key factor for investors is the role of rate policy from the Fed and from other central banks. European Central Bank rate hike expectations (two hikes of 25bp in 2026 now priced) versus the Fed (a 40% chance of one cut) drove EUR from 1.15 to 1.18 this week."
"USD dynamics in emerging markets have also been caught in a feedback loop driven by central bank intervention risks. More intervention will keep front-end rates globally tighter."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY struggles to capitalize on an intraday uptick, though the downside remains cushioned.
- The GBP is undermined by the IMF’s downgrade of the UK GDP growth forecast for the current year.
- Hormuz risks and receding BoJ rate hike bets weigh on the JPY, helping limit losses for the cross.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the 215.65-215.70 region and retreats to the lower end of its daily range during the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a three-day-old range and currently trade around the 215.30-215.25 zone, nearly unchanged for the day.
Despite the better-than-expected monthly UK GDP print released on Thursday, the British Pound (GBP) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid economic concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict. According to April 2026 International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, the UK is identified as the most vulnerable economy among G7 nations to the impacts of the Iran war. The outlook resulted in a steep growth downgrade of the UK's 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%, compared to the October 2025 forecast of 1.3%. This, along with a strong US Dollar (USD), is seen undermining the British Pound (GBP) and acting as a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns that the economy will come under substantial strains in the foreseeable future, due to continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, declining market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in April further undermine the JPY and hold back the GBP/JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming a near-term top for spot prices and positioning for a deeper corrective fall from the highest level since July 2008, around the 216.00 neighborhood touched earlier this week.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 closed at another record high, while the NASDAQ logged a 12-session winning streak, its longest since 2009. Jim Reid cautions that a similarly sharp 11‑day rally in March 2022, driven by ceasefire hopes in Ukraine, ultimately preceded renewed equity weakness, framing the current move as a potential warning signal.
US equities rally but past warns caution
"That backdrop meant that oil prices moved higher yesterday, with Brent crude (+4.70%) closing at $99.39/bbl. Yet despite the latest advance for oil prices, the US equity rally continued."
"So not only did the S&P 500 (+0.26%) reach another record high, but yesterday saw the NASDAQ (+0.36%) advance for a 12th consecutive session for the first time since 2009."
"Generally I'm sympathetic to the view that a resolution is more likely than not over the coming weeks even if the path is unlikely to be a straight line. However the CoTD yesterday reminded us that the last time we had a larger move in the S&P 500 in 11 business days than we’ve just seen since March 30 (+10.7%) was back in March 2022."
"Back then, it was because of expectations that Russian and Ukraine talks would end up in an early ceasefire to the war which was only weeks old at the time. That obviously didn't end well and the bear market soon continued."
"So one warning sign from the recent past."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver price remains calm near $78.70 while investors await the announcement of the US-Iran second round of talks.
- US President Trump remains hopeful of a permanent ceasefire with Iran.
- Iran optimism continues to keep the US Dollar under pressure.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades calmly near $78.70 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal is broadly sideways as investors await the announcement of a timeline for another round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
Washington has announced that both the US and Iran will resume negotiations soon, which previously ended without a breakthrough, before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire on April 21.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that a deal with Iran is “very close”, as the nation has “agreed to almost everything”. Trump clarified that Iran seems now more “willing to do things today than they previously weren't”, which includes giving up nuclear ambitions and handing over enriched uranium.
Hopes of a US-Iran permanent truce continue to keep the US Dollar (USD) under pressure, a scenario that is technically risk-reward favorable for the Silver price.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, looks set for a negative closing for the second straight week. The Iran optimism has capped oil prices, which has anchored inflation expectations again, allowing traders to raise dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
Theoretically, improving dovish Fed prospects bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades flat at around $78.68 during the press time. The near-term bias of the Silver price seems neutral as it remains sticky to the flattening 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.35.
The upward-sloping border of the Ascending Triangle formation drawn from $60.86, last referenced around $75.97, reinforces an underlying bid after the recent pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the horizontal border of the triangle formation, with a reference break level at $80.76; a daily close above this area would open the way for further recovery towards the March 13 high of $85.46.
On the downside, immediate support is the 20-period EMA at $76.35 and the rising trend-line region around $75.97, where failure would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper correction within the broader advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected at 07:30 GMT to say in the last section above the Technical Analysis section that anchored inflation expectations are allowing traders to raise dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets and not pare. Also, improving dovish Fed prospects bode well for non-yielding assets, and not diminishing.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
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