Forex News
- Silver notches fresh all-time highs above $60, extending its historic year-to-date rally of more than 100%.
- The Fed's interest rate decision is in focus, with markets pricing a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday.
- Technical setup remains firmly bullish, with XAG/USD trading well above key moving averages and momentum strengthening.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its historic run on Tuesday, surging past the $60 mark for the first time as bullish momentum accelerates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The metal is up more than 100% year-to-date, supported by a dovish shift in Fed rate expectations, tightening physical supply conditions, and strong demand from both industrial users and investors.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $60.43, pushing into uncharted territory. The latest advance comes as traders continue to price in a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut on Wednesday, although some caution lingers that the Fed may signal a slower path of easing into 2026.
At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions are adding further support to the rally, keeping safe-haven flows steady. Silver’s dual role as both an industrial and defensive asset has helped it outperform Gold this year, with the yellow metal up nearly 60% year-to-date.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows XAG/USD trading comfortably above its short and long-term moving averages, with the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) all sloping firmly higher, underscoring a well-established bullish trend.
The latest breakout above the recent consolidation phase signals that buyers remain firmly in control and sets the stage for a potential extension of the rally toward $61 and beyond.
On the downside, any pullback is likely to attract dip-buying interest, with $59 acting as immediate support, followed by $57. A stronger support zone rests around $54-55, where the 50-day SMA comes into play in the event of a deeper correction.
Momentum signals also back the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 70, showing strong buying pressure with no clear signs of fatigue yet. At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is turning higher, confirming that the uptrend is strengthening rather than slowing.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The New Zealand Dollar stalls below 0.5800 despite three consecutive days of gains.
- Investors brace for a “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
- Strong Chinese trade data continues to support the New Zealand Dollar.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5780 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is attempting to extend its rebound, but the US Dollar (USD) has regained a touch of support, limiting the pair’s upward momentum.
The market’s brief risk-off reaction to the 7.5-magnitude earthquake in northern Japan boosted US Treasury yields and, in turn, the US Dollar. Meanwhile, caution dominates ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision, where markets widely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut paired with a firm message. Investors anticipate that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will raise the threshold for further easing and hint at a pause in early 2026.
At the same time, the New Zealand Dollar continues to benefit from Monday’s Chinese trade figures. China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, reported a higher-than-expected trade surplus in November, supported by a 5.9% YoY increase in exports. The data improves the economic outlook for Wellington while strengthening demand for the Kiwi.
In the United States (US), the US Dollar remains generally subdued despite Monday’s rebound. The US Dollar Index (DXY) still trades near six-week lows, as market participants await the tone of the Fed’s communication, potential changes to the dot plot, and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments to assess the pace of the coming easing cycle.
Today’s US labour data offered mixed signals. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported average private-sector job creation of 4,750 per week over the four weeks ending November 15. Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed vacancies rising slightly to 7.67 million in October, with hiring and separations broadly unchanged.
These figures come on the heels of a recent series of labour indicators pointing to a gradual slowdown in the US job market. They are not strong enough to reassure investors about underlying economic momentum and reinforce the view that the Fed may adopt a firm tone on Wednesday to temper expectations of aggressive easing.
Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and speculation that Powell could be replaced in May by a more dovish Chair continue to fuel expectations of additional rate cuts in 2026.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | 0.23% | 0.63% | 0.03% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | 0.06% | 0.44% | -0.13% | -0.30% | -0.14% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.06% | 0.40% | -0.20% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.63% | -0.44% | -0.40% | -0.60% | -0.77% | -0.61% | -0.67% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.60% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.37% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.21% | 0.61% | 0.02% | -0.16% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.27% | 0.67% | 0.07% | -0.07% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, keeping EUR/USD stable around 1.1640.
- Today’s ADP and JOLTS figures show solid job demand but come after a series of worrying labour indicators in the US.
- The Dollar remains near six-week lows, with markets already pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.
EUR/USD trades with limited direction on Tuesday, holding around 1.1640 at the time of writing as market participants avoid taking major positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Expectations are firmly anchored as Futures markets assign nearly a 90% chance to a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The US Dollar (USD) remains subdued despite Monday’s brief support from higher Treasury yields and a temporary rise in risk aversion following the earthquake in Japan. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover near six-week lows, with investors awaiting the tone of the policy statement, potential updates to the dot plot and the remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to assess the trajectory of the easing cycle.
Today’s labour market releases offered mixed signals. According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), private-sector employment increased by an average of 4,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 15. Meanwhile, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a slight rise in vacancies to 7.67 million in October. Hiring and separations remained broadly unchanged.
However, these figures follow a worrying sequence of recent labour indicators that have highlighted moderating momentum in employment. Against this backdrop, today’s data were not strong enough to reassure investors about the underlying health of the US labour market. Instead, they suggest stability rather than renewed strength.
This encourages the view that Jerome Powell may adopt a firm tone on Wednesday in an attempt to curb expectations of an aggressive easing path. Nonetheless, divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), coupled with speculation that the Fed Chair could be replaced in May by a more dovish Chair, continue to fuel expectations of additional rate cuts next year.
In the Eurozone, Monday’s improvement in the Sentix Investors Sentiment Index brought little support to the Euro (EUR), and recent comments from ECB officials Isabel Schnabel and Martins Kazaks underline a cautious approach. While further tightening is not ruled out, the European Central Bank (ECB) appears inclined to proceed pragmatically given limited visibility on economic conditions.
Overall, EUR/USD remains in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed. Traders are reluctant to commit before receiving clearer guidance on the central bank’s rate path, with Wednesday’s communication from Jerome Powell likely to determine the next directional move for the pair.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.61% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.12% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.53% | -0.15% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | -0.06% | 0.48% | -0.21% | -0.44% | -0.27% | -0.20% | |
| JPY | -0.61% | -0.53% | -0.48% | -0.68% | -0.91% | -0.75% | -0.67% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.21% | 0.68% | -0.23% | -0.06% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.37% | 0.44% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.75% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.20% | 0.67% | -0.01% | -0.26% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- The Yen weakens for a third straight day as the US Dollar strengthens on firmer labour market data.
- Markets remain convinced the Fed will deliver a 25 bps cut on Wednesday, with traders also watching for any hawkish signals in the guidance.
- The Yen struggles to gain traction despite rising expectations for a BoJ rate hike on December 19.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/JPY extending gains for the third straight day as the Greenback strengthens following firmer labour market data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near 156.90, its highest level since November 25.
Fresh US labour data helped support the Dollar on Tuesday. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average improved to 4.75K from -13.5K, reinforcing the view that conditions may not be cooling as sharply as feared.
The data stand in contrast to last week’s ADP Employment Change, which unexpectedly showed a 32,000 decline for November after a revised 47,000 gain in October.
JOLTS Job Openings also exceeded expectations for both September and October. September registered 7.658 million openings against the 7.2 million forecast and 7.227 million in the previous month, while October printed 7.67 million compared with the 7.2 million consensus.
The data did little to sway expectations for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, with markets still convinced the central bank will deliver another 25 basis point (bps) cut.
However, the Dollar is also drawing support from expectations of a hawkish cut, with analysts suggesting the Fed could signal a long pause through 2026 as policymakers assess the impact of earlier reductions while inflation remains above target and the labour market shows no signs of severe deterioration.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.27, extending gains after Monday’s modest recovery.
On the Japanese side, the Yen continues to struggle for traction even as expectations grow that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates at its December 19 meeting, potentially lifting the policy rate to around 0.75%.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier on Tuesday that the recent rise in long-term Japanese Government Bond yields has been “somewhat rapid,” adding that the central bank stands ready to step into the bond market if volatility persists. Ueda also noted that underlying inflation appears to be converging toward the BoJ’s target.
At the same time, fiscal authorities remain alert to sharp currency movements. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reiterated earlier in the day that Tokyo will take “appropriate action” if the Yen weakens too rapidly.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- GBP/USD breaks below 1.3300 after JOLTS job openings jump to 7.67 million in October, boosting US Dollar demand.
- Mixed BoE commentary highlights inflation worries, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy may stay restrictive longer.
- Weak UK Retail Sales add pressure as markets await Fed decision and assess shifting global rate path dynamics.
GBP/USD drops below the key support level seen at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.3331 and weakens by some 0.21% on Tuesday as traders brace for the policy decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades below 1.3300 after reaching a high of 1.3356.
Stronger US job openings jolt markets, dragging Cable under its 200-day SMA as traders brace for Wednesday’s FOMC outcome
Economic data from the US revealed that job openings in October rose from 7.658 million to 7.67 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On the data, the pair tumbled below 1.3300.
Earlier, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average showed that companies hired an average of 4,750 people per week for the four weeks ending November 22, improving compared to the prior reading of -13,500.
Across the pond, Bank of England (BoE) members remained worried about high inflation. Swati Dhingra, a renowned dove, expressed concerns about food costs despite the ongoing disinflation. Clare Lombardelli, recently appointed, is worried about upside risks to inflation and said that she is less convinced that policy is restrictive.
Also, BoE Catherine Mann said that inflation persistence remained her key view, while Dave Ramsden said that he doesn’t rule out the worry of persistence.
On the data front, BRC Retail Sales for November deteriorated from 1.5% YoY to 1.2%, missing forecasts of 2.4%.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The technical picture suggests the pair is neutral to upward biased, but the drop below the 200-day SMA exposes GBP/USD to further losses. The next support would be the 50-day SMA at 1.3259, if broken, expect a test of the 20-day SMA at 1.3201. Further downside lies at the 1.3150 area.
(This story was corrected on December 9 at 16:25 GMT to say that JOLTS Job Openings rose in October from the previous reading of 7.658M, instead of 7.227M.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, and MPC member Catherine Mann gave comments to the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday about the November monetary policy report.
Key takeaways
BoE's Ramsden :
Gradual removal of policy restraint appropriate.
I do not currently think there is evidence to suggest that the economy is developing out of line with our baseline forecasts."
BoE's Lombardelli :
I worry more about upside risks to inflation.
I put weight on structural factors pushing up inflation.
I am less convinced than others about how restrictive policy is.
Might slow down rate cutting pace as we get nearer end-point of cycle.
We think budget will reduce inflation by 0.4-0.5 percentage points.
Downward impact on inflation will be one-off for a year starting in Q2 2026."
BoE's Mann:
As i look forward, we can see budget changes will lead to lower inflation rate.But we have had behavioural changes linked to 4 years of inflation above 2%.
UK firms are reluctant to reduce prices even when demand is weak.
Overall labour market situation is not as dire as BoE surveys show, due to public sector Employment
Pre-budget policy prevarication has been detrimental to consumer confidence and business investment.”
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.63% | -0.14% | -0.33% | -0.20% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.57% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.25% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.12% | 0.46% | -0.30% | -0.49% | -0.36% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.63% | -0.57% | -0.46% | -0.74% | -0.94% | -0.81% | -0.66% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.74% | -0.20% | -0.07% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.49% | 0.94% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.28% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.81% | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.66% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold holds steady as traders stay cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision.
- Markets price a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut, but uncertainty grows over the Fed’s guidance into 2026.
- Neutral technical signals keep XAU/USD range-bound, with $4,250 capping upside and $4,180-$4,200 acting as key support.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds its footing on Tuesday, extending the sideways pattern that has dominated trade for a little over a week as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday.
At the time of writing, the XAU/USD is consolidating around $4,200 after briefly dipping toward $4,170 earlier in the European trading session.
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins later on Tuesday, with traders widely anticipating another rate cut following September and October’s back-to-back “risk-management” reductions in response to signs of cooling in the labour market.
Market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool points to almost a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, which would lower the Federal Funds Rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range.
The dovish Fed expectation is keeping Bullion broadly supported. However, with the rate cut almost fully priced in, investors will closely watch the forward guidance as speculation of a “hawkish cut” grows, underscoring uncertainty over the monetary policy path heading into 2026.
Market movers: Fed’s next move under scrutiny amid mixed signals
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.27, extending gains after Monday’s modest recovery and exerting mild pressure on Gold.
- Labour-market data released on Tuesday painted a firmer picture, with the ADP 4-week average rising to 4.75K and JOLTS Job Openings for both September and October exceeding expectations. September came in at 7.658 million against a 7.2 million forecast and 7.227 million in the previous month, while October printed 7.67 million compared with a 7.2 million consensus.
- Even with a cut almost fully priced in, policy uncertainty remains elevated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a notably cautious tone at the October post-meeting press conference, stressing that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” Powell also noted a “growing chorus” within the Committee suggesting it may be better to wait before making another move.
- There is also a notable division within the Committee, with some officials emphasizing lingering inflation risks while others are concerned about the gradual cooling in the labour market. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and mixed labour indicators are adding to the uncertainty, reinforcing the view that the Fed may opt for a more measured approach to additional monetary policy easing as disinflation progress slows.
- Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical risks also remain elevated, with the lack of meaningful progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations continuing to lend support to Gold. After meeting European leaders in London on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv will share a revised 20-point peace plan with the United States and stressed that there is still no agreement on the issue of territorial concessions, which Moscow continues to push for.
Technical analysis: Neutral momentum keeps Gold trapped below $4,250
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade in a tight range, with buyers repeatedly stepping in around the $4,200-$4,180 area. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is acting as near-term resistance around $4,205, while the 100-period SMA near $4,148 provides a stronger downside floor if bears attempt a decisive break below the $4,200-$4,180 support zone.
On the upside, the $4,250 region remains a tough ceiling, where bulls have struggled to gain traction. A sustained break above this ceiling would shift the bias more decisively in favour of buyers and open the door for a retest of the all-time highs.
Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting near 50, signalling a neutral tone that fits with the current consolidation. Meanwhile, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are flat and hovering near the zero mark, signalling a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears as traders wait for a catalyst.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The price of WTI fell to $58.50 on Tuesday, weighed down by the restoration of production in Iraq.
- However, geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could limit losses.
- Investors are awaiting API inventory data amid increased volatility in the energy market.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $58.50 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day. The Crude Oil market is declining after the announcement of restored production at Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field, a development that increases short-term supply and pressures Oil prices.
According to Reuters, Iraq has resumed output at the Lukoil-operated site after a pipeline leak temporarily reduced exports. The field, which produces over 460,000 barrels per day, nearly 0.5% of global Oil supply, also accounts for around 9% of Iraq’s total output, making its stabilization a significant factor for the global supply balance. This logistical improvement in Iraq is therefore exerting immediate downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, geopolitical developments are limiting the extent of WTI’s pullback. US President Donald Trump recently expressed disappointment over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s response to a US proposal to end the conflict, reviving concerns about energy flows linked to Russia. Analysts believe restrictions on Russian energy exports are likely to stay in place, given the absence of an agreement to resolve the war, maintaining a risk premium on Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, Asian import dynamics continue to reshape global flows. According to Commerzbank, China increased its purchases from Saudi Arabia and Iran in November, while imports from Russia declined amid softer demand and renewed US sanctions. These shifts underscore the persistent pressure on Russian supplies and may help establish a near-term floor under Crude Oil prices.
Market participants now turn their attention to Wednesday’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors strongly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, a move that could improve the outlook for energy demand in 2025. Lower rates typically weaken the US Dollar (USD), which in turn tends to support WTI by making USD-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers.
Traders also await the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) report due later today, which will provide an early indication of US stock levels. A larger-than-expected inventory build could add further pressure to WTI, already weighed down by the swift restoration of Iraqi output.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The number of job openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.658 million, while for October it rose to 7.67 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday.
"Over the month (October), both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (2.9 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.9 million) were little changed."
Market reaction to JOLTS Job Openings data
This data provided near-term legs to the US Dollar (USD), albeit gains remain modest ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index is up 0.19% on the day at 99.29.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | 0.25% | 0.50% | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.02% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | 0.08% | 0.38% | -0.23% | -0.36% | -0.15% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.29% | -0.32% | -0.44% | -0.23% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.50% | -0.38% | -0.29% | -0.61% | -0.74% | -0.53% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.61% | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 0.36% | 0.44% | 0.74% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.53% | -0.08% | -0.21% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.40% | -0.21% | -0.34% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the JOLTS Job Openings reports at 09:00 GMT.
- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely after over two months of silence.
- Job Openings are forecast to remain around 7.2 million in October.
- United States employment-related data is critical for the Federal Reserve.
- EUR/USD is neutral-to-bullish, needs to run past 1.1730 to gain additional upward traction.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Due to the long-lasting government shutdown, the publication will provide data on changes in the number of Job Openings in September and October, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
Ahead of the announcement, market participants anticipate that Job Openings reached 7.2 million in October. The last report released showed 7.227 million job openings in August. The report will be released 24 hours before the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy announcement and is likely to have a limited impact on policymakers’ decision this time. However, more US employment-related data will be coming in the days ahead, and will likely shape bets on what the Fed may or may not do throughout 2026.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Fed officials because it can provide valuable insights into labor-market supply and demand dynamics, a key factor affecting salaries and inflation.
The labor market has been cooling down, maybe a bit too much. Fed policymakers now seem more worried about the labour situation than about inflation, which, anyway, is still above the central bank's target of around 2%.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
While the JOLTS Job Openings report offers clues about labor demand, it has a caveat: the report is a lagging indicator, as it is usually released one month later. In this case, due to the US government shutdown, the report is two months old, as it includes September and October data. As previously mentioned, it won’t have a direct impact on the Fed’s decision, but alongside other employment-related data, it will likely shape bets on what the Fed will do in 2026.
In the meantime, speculative interest has steadily increased bets on a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut. But beyond the rate decision, the central bank will also release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), a document that includes policymakers’ expectations for economic developments and the direction of monetary policy. The language of the monetary policy statement and the SEP could have a significant impact on financial markets.
At the time being, a too-weak labor market is the main reason for interest rate cuts. If employment-related data results are encouraging, investors could reduce bets on upcoming interest rate movements. The US Dollar is likely to firm up on solid local data, coupled with decreased odds for interest rate cuts. The opposite scenario is also valid: poor figures fuel speculation of lower rates, which, in turn, results in a weaker USD.
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job Openings will be published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT, and ahead of the release, the EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips below the multi-week peak posted early in December at 1.1682.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish. The pair holds on to modest monthly gains and trades not far from its December peak, but the momentum remains missing as investors await clarification on US economic health and the Fed’s monetary policy path. The 1.1680 area provides resistance ahead of the October monthly peak at around 1.1730. A clear advance beyond the latter would revive the bullish trend, and could see the pair extending gains towards 1.1900 before the year-end.”
Bednarik adds: “The case for a firmer USD is limited. The Greenback could receive some near-term attention should the data results be upbeat, but such gains are unlikely to be sustained in time. Support comes at 1.1600, with losses below the level favoring a downward extension towards 1.1520. A line in the sand comes at around 1.1460, where buyers are likely to add longs.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
(This story was corrected on December 9 at 15:30 GMT to add "M" representing 7.67 millions in the title instead of 7.67 as initially stated)
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