Forex News
According to revised estimates, the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at a faster pace of 0.6% in the third quarter this year. The preliminary data showed that the economy grew at a moderate pace of 0.4%.
On an annualized basis, the Eurozone economy rises in line with preliminary estimates of 1.3%.
Market reaction
No major action is obseved in the Euro (EUR), following the release of the Eurozone second Q3 GDP estimates. At press time, EUR/USD is flat at around 1.1054.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Nov 13, 2026 10:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 0.6%
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.4%
Source: Eurostat
- Australian Dollar falls further as rising US bond yields diminish the appeal of riskier currencies.
- TD Securities expect the Fed to hike interest rates in December, January and March policy meetings.
- The RBA seems done with its monetary tightening cycle.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing spree against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading 0.15% lower at around 0.6795 in the European trade. The Aussie pair underperforms as surging United States (US) Treasury Yields have diminished the appeal of riskier assets, such as the Australian Dollar.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields hold onto three-week high near $5.13%. Yields on 10-year US bonds have jumped almost 5.5% in the past two trading days.
What has lent strength to US bond yields?
Strategists at Deutsche Bank highlight that the latest US inflation release was the key driver of surging US Treasury Yields, noting that “the monthly core CPI print for October was above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected).” They stress that “it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%.” Deutsche Bank adds that “that’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip.”
Risks of persistent elevated US inflation have forced market experts to reassess their Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.
According to strategists at TD Securities, the firm has shifted to a more hawkish stance on the near-term policy path, now expecting "25bp hikes in December, January, and March," rather than its earlier call for just December and March.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar underperforms as financial markets expect that Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cycle has come to an end.
AUD support fades as RBA tightening runs into limits
Analysts at MUFG note that the earlier “pre-emptive nature of monetary tightening in Australia has benefitted the Australian Dollar,” but they now judge that “time appears to have run out for providing support for the currency” as investors conclude the RBA is “running out of scope for additional rate hikes at a time when investors are reappraising their views on additional Fed rate hikes.” They highlight that the RBA has already “hiked on five occasions this year and the policy rate at 4.85% is the highest since 2008 when the RBA was cutting rates into the Global Financial Crisis,” underscoring how front-loaded the current cycle has been. That pre-emptive stance means “the OIS curve through to Q4 2027 shows mostly a flat curve but a probability of a rate cut (-15bps priced) in Q3-Q4 next year,” reinforcing the view that the domestic rate impulse supporting the Aussie is now largely exhausted just as US rate expectations are being repriced higher.
Going forward, investors will focus on the RBA meeting minutes of the October policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6795, extending its slide below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6930, which now acts as immediate overhead resistance and reinforces a bearish near-term bias. The pair’s failure to reclaim this EMA suggests rallies are likely to be sold, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 31.8 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure with only a modest risk of a corrective bounce.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 0.6930, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, with no clear technical support levels derived from the current dataset, traders may look to prior price lows and psychological marks below 0.6800 as potential demand zones, although the prevailing structure suggests that any such supports remain vulnerable while price holds beneath the EMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
RBA Meeting Minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Nov 17, 2026 00:30
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $49.97 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.07% from the $50.01 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 29.70% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 49.97 |
1 Gram | 1.61 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 78.01 on Friday, up from 77.49 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/CHF rallies to fresh one-month highs at 0.8368, on track for its strongest weekly rally in two years.
- Rising bets of a jumbo rate hike by the Fed in December are boosting the US Dollar across the board.
- ING experts point out to 0.8400 as a key level for the pair.
The US Dollar (USD) maintains its bullish tone against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, buoyed by higher US Treasury yields, as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials open the door for a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. The USD/CHF appreciates for the fourth consecutive day, reaching session highs at 0.8368 so far, on track for its best weekly performance in two years.
Speculative traders have ramped up US Dollar long bets this week, as the overshoot Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released on Tuesday prompted Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to bring up the possibility of a jumbo rate hike in December.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller affirmed on Monday that if consumer inflation rose to 0.3% or higher in October, “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk”. The CPI finally rose 0.4% in October. A few days later, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shared that view, assuring that “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.”
Dollar strength puts pressure on Franc and Yen as key USD/CHF level comes into focus
Market expectations that the Fed might finally go big in December have increased to 13% from none one week ago, according to data by the CME’s FedWatch Tool. In this context, the US two-year Treasury yield has jumped about 32 basis points this week, while the yield of the benchmark 10-year note rallied 27 basis points, returning above 5%. This has sent the US Dollar surging against its most peers.
Analysts at ING note "the low-yielding Swiss franc and the Yen have some of the highest correlations with US rates and are under pressure."
"0.8400 is a really important resistance area for USD/CHF and will probably help determine whether the dollar needs to take another big leg higher over the coming weeks,“ say the ING experts in a note.
In Switzerland, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, released earlier on Friday, revealed that inflation accelerated to a 0.9% year-over-year rate in October from 0.3% in September against market expectations of a moderate slowdown to 0.2%. The Monthly PPI rose to 0.9%, largely reversing September’s 0.2% drop. The data, however, does not change the view that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its monetary policy unchanged in the near term.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- Euro attracts some bids near 1.1047 against the US Dollar, outlook remains uncertain.
- TD Securities see the Fed hiking interest rates in all next three policy meetings.
- Investors await the US PPI data for October.
The Euro (EUR) finds a temporary support near 1.1047 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The outlook of the major currency pair appears uncertain as the US Dollar outperforms due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate hikes in the near term than what previously anticipated.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to its 19-month high of 103.24 posted on Thursday.
TD Securities turn more hawkish on Fed path
According to strategists at TD Securities, the firm has shifted to a more hawkish stance on the near-term policy path, now expecting "25bp hikes in December, January, and March," rather than its earlier call for just December and March.
TD Securities flagged that the anticipation of more Fed rate hikes is backed by risk of price pressures remaining elevated. The firm also warned that the “Fed could hike more if inflation remains strong while the labor market accelerates." At the same time, TD Securities cautions that policymakers "could also halt tightening if uncertainty begins to weigh on the labor market or in the event equities begin a rapid sell-off."
Meanwhile, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. On a monthly basis, the headline PPI is estimated to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.4% against 1.3% in September. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also expected to risen moderately by 0.3% vs. the previous reading of 0.7%.
On the Euro front, investors await the revised Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, which will be published at 10:00 GMT. The Q3 GDP growth is expected to have remained at 0.4%, the preliminary data showed.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1064, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot remains clearly below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1170. The pair continues to grind lower after failing to reclaim that EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.7 stays below the midline but off oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure with only limited signs of exhaustion.
On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1170 is the first meaningful resistance, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the door to a broader corrective recovery. With no nearby structural supports indicated in the dataset, traders will likely gauge downside risk by monitoring price behavior around the latest lows, as continued rejection below 1.1170 would reinforce the view that rallies remain vulnerable to selling.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Eurostat on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the Eurozone during a certain period of time. The GDP and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 13, 2026 10:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.4%
Source: Eurostat
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes that robust UK GDP and services growth are keeping pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to hike again, with OIS implying three more moves. Despite this, GBP/USD has reversed sharply. Upcoming CPI and wage data will be key for rate expectations and Pound direction.
Pound retreats despite growth surprise
"GBP/USD: 1.3221 - 1.3242 overnight range. Cable finds support on the lows above 1.3220 as selling takes a breather following 1.7% drop from Tuesday’s pre-US CPI high. Support 1.3140, resistance 1.3310."
"CPI and wage data next week. EUR/GBP support 0.8320."
"3Q GDP growth of 0.7% surpassed the BoE estimate of 0.4% and keeps pressure on the bank to raise interest rates for a second time in December or February."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD enters a bullish consolidation phase on Friday as USD bulls pause for a breather.
- An uptick in oil prices underpins the Loonie and contributes to keeping a lid on spot prices.
- Bets for an imminent Fed rate hike and Iran risks favor USD bulls ahead of the US PPI report.
The USD/CAD pair is seen consolidating its strong gains registered over the past week or so, trading near a one-month top, around mid-1.4200s during the first half of the European session on Friday.
The US Dollar (USD) ticks lower as bulls pause for a breather following a strong three-day rally to the highest level since April 2025. Adding to this, a modest uptick in crude oil prices seems to underpin the commodity-linked Loonie, which contributes to keeping a lid on the USD/CAD pair. However, a combination of factors should continue to act as a tailwind for the Greenback and help limit the downside for the currency pair.
Against the backdrop of hotter-than-expected US October consumer inflation figures, hawkish commentary from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials prompted traders to price in a tighter monetary policy stance. In fact, a 25-basis-points (bps) rate increase in December is fully priced in, and traders are assigning around a 13% chance of a jumbo 50-bps hike next month. This, along with Middle East uncertainties, favors USD bulls.
In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump on Thursday issued a fresh warning to Iran, saying that those responsible for any attack on American officials would no longer exist. Trump added that he would not hesitate to launch further military action if the situation warranted it. Moreover, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the US does not need a deal with Iran, adding that those days have long since passed.
Moreover, continued attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, supporting crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback. Traders now look forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, would drive USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.
Dollar rally builds as Fed hike expectations firm on hot us inflation
Analysts at ING highlight that “this week has seen a powerful, macro-driven rally in the Dollar,” with short-dated US yields now “close to 40bp higher since Tuesday morning, when the Fed's Christopher Waller mused over the need for a 50bp hike in December.” They note that the market has “since adopted the view that back-to-back December and January hikes look likely, while extending the full Fed adjustment from here to a full 85bp of tightening.”
Looking ahead, ING argues that the October US PPI “looks likely to keep the narrative of hot US inflation alive.” They expect close “scrutiny into the components of PPI, such as healthcare, airfares and software, that feed into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation data – the next release of which is on 25 November.” ING adds that, “were that core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month for the third month in a row, expectations of a 50bp December hike would grow,” reinforcing the recent repricing at the front end of the US curve.
USD/CAD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair holds well above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3968 and retains a bullish near-term bias. However, some follow-through buying beyond the previous year-to-date high, around the 1.4300 mark, is needed to back the case for further gains.
On the downside, any pullback below the 1.4200 immediate support is more likely to be bought into and remain limited near the 1.4125 region. This is followed by the 1.4100 mark, below which the USD/CAD pair could test the 200-day EMA near 1.3968. As long as spot prices defend this moving-average floor, the technical structure hints that any corrective slides are likely to be contained before a deeper bearish phase can develop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 13, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 5%
Previous: 5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
DBS Group Research forecasts Japan’s real GDP to grow 0.8% in Q3, supported by AI-driven exports and stronger wage-led consumption. October trade data are expected to show solid export growth but a wider deficit, while inflation stays above 2% on higher energy costs and a weak Japanese Yen. These trends should reinforce expectations for a 25bp Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December.
Growth and prices justify BOJ tightening
"Real GDP is expected to expand by 0.8% qoq saar in 3Q, broadly in line with trend."
"October trade data are likely to show export growth remaining solid at 17% yoy, but the trade deficit widening to JPY1.2tn."
"Overall, these data should reinforce the case for a 25bp BOJ rate hike at the December policy meeting, with growth around trend, inflation above target, and continued pressure on external balance/exchange rate."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research at MUFG, argues the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) earlier support from pre-emptive Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening is fading as markets see limited scope for further hikes while repricing additional Fed moves.
Australian Dollar exposed to AI shock
"The pre-emptive nature of monetary tightening in Australia has benefitted the Australian dollar but time appears to have run out for providing support for the currency as investor conclude that RBA is running out of scope for additional rate hikes at a time when investors are reappraising their views on additional Fed rate hikes. "
"The RBA vote when it hiked this month (6-3) underlined the growing opposition to hikes and RBA Governor Bullock signalled a pause to assess given some of the tightening will not have hit the real economy."
"We view AUD as probably the most vulnerable currency in a sharp AI-related sell-off. It has a relatively high macroeconomic exposure, it also has energy and commodity exposures that would result in a negative terms of trade hit and AUD is high-beta and hence would underperform in a scenario of tightening financial conditions and a rise in financial market volatility."
"In the recent 6-day period of AI selling through to 5th November, AUD was the worst performing G10 currency. Despite the AUD sell-off from the most recent high in September, AUD is still the 2nd best performing G10 currency on a year-to-date basis. If the AI sell-off intensifies again, AUD remains more vulnerable than other G10 currencies."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Chris Turner at ING argues that while European Central Bank (ECB) rhetoric points to a December rate hike, markets see US tightening as more credible than in the Eurozone. Wider short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials are weighing on the pair.
Euro pressured by rate differentials
"European Central Bank rhetoric firmly points to the need for a rate hike in December. The problem for EUR/USD is that the market sees the potential for a prolonged tightening cycle as more credible in the US than in the eurozone. You don't hear many ECB speakers talking of a demand shock in Europe."
"Short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials have moved out to the widest levels of the year and are clearly weighing on the pair."
"Given the run of expected US inflation data over the coming weeks, we struggle to see what can take the pressure off EUR/USD. A break below 1.10 is not a given, but that level is certainly at risk into year-end."
"EUR/USD bulls will have to be hoping for either an AI crash, the ECB sounding far more hawkish or perhaps some major geopolitical breakthrough in Iran or Ukraine."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
