Forex News
A senior administration official said on Friday that the Iran deal will guarantee long-term peace in the region. The agreement would achieve core US objectives and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official said that the US would get enriched nuclear material and include an inspection regime.
Key highlights:
SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: IRAN DEAL ACCOMPLISHES CORE U.S. OBJECTIVES
IRAN DEAL REOPENS STRAIT OF HORMUZ - OFFICIAL
U.S. TO GET ENRICHED MATERIAL UNDER IRAN DEAL
IRAN DEAL GUARANTEES LONG-TERM PEACE IN REGION
IRAN DEAL INCLUDES INSPECTION REGIME
IF IRAN COMPLIES WILL BE REWARDED ECONOMICALLY
BENEFITS FOR IRAN ACCRUE IF THEY ACTUALLY DELIVER
U.S. EXPECTS TO SIGN AGREEMENT OVER NEXT FEW DAYS
DRAFT AGREEMENT ALSO LIFTS U.S. BLOCKADE AND LEADS TO DISMANTLEMENT OF IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
IRANIANS DON'T GET ANYTHING UPON SIGNING AGREEMENT
NOT QUITE AT FINISH LINE YET BUT VERY CLOSE
IRAN DEAL IS SPECIFIC ABOUT OPENING STRAIT AND LIFTING OF BLOCKADE AND MOVING OF ENRICHED MATERIAL
THE MORE IRANIANS PERFORM, THE MORE THEY CAN GET
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SANCTIONS RELIEF BASED ON HOW IRAN PERFORMS
U.S. HAS SEEN SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN TEXT OF AGREEMENT
AGREEMENT REACHED ON SPECIFICITY OVER DESTRUCTION AND REMOVAL OF ENRICHED MATERIAL
REGIONAL PEACE AGREEMENT IS BROAD
CONFIDENT ISRAELIS WILL GET ON BOARD
SOME IRANIANS DON'T LOVE THIS DEAL
WE THINK THAT DISSENT IS QUITE MINIMAL
THERE'S JUST A LOT OF MISTRUST
WHEN ISRAEL SEES FULL TERMS OF DEAL THEY WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH THAT
DEAL IS A FIRST AND IMPORTANT STEP TOWARD ENSURING IRANIANS DO NOT GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON
WE HAVE A TEXT IN PLACE THAT IRAN AND U.S. BOTH LIKE
IRAN IS COMMITTING TO NEVER DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPON
U.S. WILL HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO ENFORCE THAT
WE ENVISION 60-DAY TECHNICAL NEGOTIATION
IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER IS REPORTEDLY COMFORTABLE WITH WHERE WE ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS
EUROPE HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AS SITE FOR SIGNING BUT NO DECISION YET
U.S., IRAN SET UP A PROCESS TO BUILD TRUST, BRING AGREEMENT TO A CLOSE
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says the UK economy is tracking close to the Bank of England’s Scenario A, with stronger‑than‑expected early‑2026 GDP but a cooling labour market and easing price pressures. GDP is seen around 1% in 2026–27, while CPI is projected slightly below Scenario A and potentially under the 2% target at longer horizons.
Scenario A path for growth and CPI
"The economy - at least on the surface - has been stronger than the Bank assumed. GDP growth, to start the year, was stronger than the Bank anticipated. But the labour market has softened a touch, relative to the Bank's expectations."
"Relative to the MPC’s scenarios, we see GDP growth tracking closer to Scenario A, with output a little more resilient on the back of stronger catch up in Q1-26. Q2-26 GDP growth looks poised to push closer to 0.1-0.2% q-o-q. And annual GDP growth this year looks set to be at the BoE staff projection of 0.9%, with growth likely to push upwards of 1%."
"Based on current market conditions, GDP growth is expected to push a little past all three Bank scenario projections this year. Incorporating the stronger Q1-26, we would expect Bank projections, under current market conditions, to have increased to 1% (Scenario A: 0.8%). GDP growth in year 2 (2027), we expect, would also stay steady at 1% – broadly consistent with the Bank's Scenario A & B."
"On inflation, based on current market conditions, we would expect CPI to remain slightly below the Bank's Scenario A projections. If we applied the same conditioning assumptions to Scenario B, headline CPI would likely sit 0.1pp to 0.15pp below the Bank's projections at both the two-year and three-year forecast horizons – pushing headline CPI below the Bank's 2% target."
"Based on current market pricing and recent outturns, the UK economic trajectory remains closest to the Bank's Scenario A."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- A potential Hormuz reopening could ease energy-driven inflation pressures.
- Improved consumer sentiment tempers safe-haven demand for Gold.
- Warsh’s first Fed decision and SEP headline next week.
Gold (XAU/USD) price consolidates above the $4,200 figure on Friday as market participants are optimistic about a potential US-Iran deal, set to be signed next week, according to newswires. Meanwhile, households in the US are becoming more optimistic about the economy. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,216, up 0.11%.
XAU/USD steadies as deal chatter offsets firmer yields
Investors' mood turned optimistic amid news that the Middle East conflict could end if Washington and Tehran proceed with the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). There is growing speculation about a signing at the G7 meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, but the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s decision-making bodies are meeting on the MOU and that he cannot confirm the details of the memorandum.
If both parties agree, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, which could drive energy prices lower and ease inflationary pressures on major central banks that have expressed concerns about the energy shock sparked by the conflict.
Central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 75 and 25 basis points, respectively, during the year. However, a quick resolution of the conflict might prevent others, such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Federal Reserve (Fed), from tightening policy.
Despite this, US Treasury yields are edging higher, with the 10-year T-note up 1.5 basis points to 4.477%, a headwind for the yellow metal. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the American currency’s performance against six currencies, holds steady at 99.77, up 0.06%.
Data during the day showed that US households are becoming more optimistic as the US Consumer Sentiment in June improved from 44.8 to 48.9 in the preliminary reading, while inflation expectations for one year eased from 4.8% to 4.6%.
Earlier this week, US inflation data increased speculation that the Fed might raise rates at least once this year. But since news of a potential deal between the US and Iran decreased from around 88% to 67%.
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the first one led by the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Retail Sales.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold rises past $4,200 on US-Iran war deal
Gold price is neutral to downward-biased, even though it recovered 3.50% on Thursday, clearing the way for a move above $4,200. Momentum remains downward-biased, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but its recent break above the 30 level opened the door for buyers to drive prices higher in the near term.
The first key resistance level is$4,250. A breach of the latter will expose the $4,300 mark, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,450, ahead of $4,500.
On the downside, the first support for XAU/USD is at $4,200. Below this level sit key psychological levels at $4,150, ahead of the June 11 daily low of $4,023, and $4,000.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights strong South Korean asset performance, with South Korean Won (KRW) outperforming and the KOSPI up sharply on AI-led semiconductor strength. The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) Governor Shin Hyun Song delivered hawkish guidance, emphasizing the need to prioritize price stability. BBH notes that a 25 bps hike to 2.75% at the July 16 meeting is increasingly likely.
Won benefits from hawkish policy stance
"KRW outperformed most currencies overnight and the KOSPI jumped as much as 8.5% before settling 4.6% higher. Year-to-date, the KOSPI is the world’s best performing equity market, up a whopping 92%, driven by the AI-led semiconductor boom. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for a huge share of the index."
"Bank of Korea (BoK) Governor Shin Hyun Song delivered hawkish remarks, consistent with his previous guidance. Shin said “it is necessary to place priority on price stability and raise interest rates before it is too late.” "
"At its last May 28 meeting, BoK kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for an 8th consecutive meeting while Shin stressed that the Board “judged necessary to raise the Base Rate at an appropriate time.” The BoK next meets on July 16 and a 25bps hike to 2.75% is increasingly likely."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD holds near seven-month highs as lower Oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar.
- Overbought signals emerge on the daily chart, but USD/CAD's broader technical outlook remains bullish.
- Bulls face immediate resistance at the 1.4000 psychological mark.
USD/CAD trades on the front foot on Friday as lower Oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid cautious optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could reach an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3979 after touching 1.4024 on Thursday, its highest level since November 2025. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades near $83.50 per barrel, near two-month lows.
The Canadian Dollar has remained under steady pressure since early May as geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven flows directed toward the US Dollar (USD). In addition, the relative strength of the US economy and favorable interest rate differentials between the US and Canada remain a key headwind for the Loonie.
However, overbought conditions on the daily chart could limit further upside in the near term. Still, the broader trend remains bullish, with the pair holding comfortably above key moving averages.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CAD retains a bullish near-term bias as price holds comfortably above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 75 and a firming Average Directional Index (ADX) around 33 suggest a strong but stretched uptrend, hinting that upside follow-through may persist while also increasing the risk of a corrective pause.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the psychological 1.4000 handle, followed by a higher barrier at 1.4100.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA near 1.3817, ahead of the 50-day SMA around 1.3767 and the 100-day SMA near 1.3729, where dips would be expected to attract buying interest while the broader bullish structure remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.14% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.10% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.03% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report USD/JPY is steady but elevated, with recent gains already surpassing prior intervention-trigger levels. A 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike on Tuesday is widely anticipated, and markets price nearly one more increase by December. They flag concerns over communication as Governor Ueda will not attend, and see limited resistance up to 162 with support in the 156–158 band.
Limited resistance seen toward 162
"The yen’s ongoing weakness is a worry for market participants, government officials, and central bank policymakers, sparking concerns of intervention in the former as the latter consider the implications for inflation."
"The latest weakness in spot (gains for USD/JPY) have already cleared levels that sparked earlier currency management activities (price checking in January, intervention in late April/early May)."
"Domestic releases have been limited and the calendar is empty ahead of Tuesday’s BoJ rate decision. A 25 bps hike is widely anticipated and markets are pricing nearly one additional hike by December."
"Gov. Ueda is not attending, leaving market participants somewhat concerned about the central bank’s communication specifically the post meeting press conference."
"For USD/JPY, we see limited resistance between current spot and 162 and we would anticipate support in the 156/158 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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