Forex News
- Gold steadies near $4,800 after a bearish weekly gap as US-Iran tensions keep markets volatile.
- Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cloud de-escalation hopes.
- XAU/USD maintains a mild bullish bias on the 4-hour chart, holding above the 200-period SMA.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap as evolving geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran war keep volatility elevated across global financial markets. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,800, recovering from an intraday low near $4,737 touched during the Asian session.
Strait of Hormuz tensions cloud de-escalation hopes
Markets remain torn between hopes of de-escalation and renewed uncertainty, with a weekend flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz dampening expectations that the conflict will be resolved quickly. Iran has effectively closed the Strait again after a temporary reopening was announced, citing the ongoing US naval blockade of its ports as a breach of the current ceasefire terms.
Meanwhile, the US Navy intercepted and boarded an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Tehran condemned the move as “armed piracy” and has threatened retaliation.
The current two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, keeping investors cautious as they await clearer signals on a potential second round of peace talks.
US President Donald Trump said it is “highly unlikely” that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran, adding, “We will not open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed.” He also said in a Truth Social post, “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran.”
According to a Reuters report, a senior Iranian official said Pakistan is making “positive efforts” to help end the US blockade and secure Iran’s participation in talks, suggesting diplomacy remains possible despite recent flare-ups.
Elevated Oil prices keep inflation risks in focus, clouds Gold outlook
Against this backdrop, the near-term outlook for Gold remains uncertain, as rising energy prices pose upside risks to inflation and reinforce expectations that central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), may maintain a tighter monetary policy stance for longer.
Despite its traditional role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, Gold has struggled to attract sustained demand since the onset of the conflict, with the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative continuing to act as a key headwind for the non-yielding metal.
Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on geopolitical developments for fresh directional cues, while the US economic calendar remains relatively light this week. Key data releases include Retail Sales and the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys.
Focus will also be on the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, scheduled for Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near 200-period SMA
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD holds a mild bullish bias as it clings to a narrow support band defined by the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,794, with the 100-period SMA much lower near $4,706, suggesting the broader uptrend structure remains intact despite the latest consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.24 is neutral, while the subdued Average Directional Index (ADX) near 14.47 hints at a weakly trending environment, so immediate direction is likely to be driven by how price behaves around this tight 200-SMA floor.
On the downside, initial support is effectively anchored at the current price area around $4,800, reinforced immediately by the 200-period SMA at $4,794, while a deeper pullback would expose the next significant demand zone near the 100-period SMA at $4,706.
On the upside, a decisive move above the 200-period SMA could open the door for a test of last week’s high near $4,890, followed by the psychological $5,000 level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Societe Generale strategists comment from Brazil’s central bank Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) officials describing March’s 25 bp Selic cut as the start of a calibration process rather than an easing cycle. They stress commitment to the 3% inflation target and downplay the recent break of USD/BRL below 5.00, leaving the scale of future adjustments open and data‑dependent ahead of the April 29 COPOM meeting.
BCB stresses inflation target over FX
"In EM, Brazil central bank monetary policy director Nilton David last week emphasized the importance of meeting the 3% inflation target and characterised the cautious 25bp Selic rate cut in March as the start of a ‘calibration process’ and not easing."
"Crucially, he asserted that the BCB does not count on real appreciation to deliver disinflation, implicitly downplaying the break of USD/BRL below 5.00."
"Fellow BCB official Paulo Picchetti noted that the scale of policy calibration is open with ample scope for data to reshape views ahead of the COPOM meeting on 29 April."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI Oil prices rebound from last week’s lows as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran raise supply concerns.
- Iran signals it may boycott upcoming peace talks after the seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman.
- Markets remain cautious, with hopes for renewed negotiations keeping Oil prices below the $100 threshold.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $87.10 per barrel on Monday, gaining 3.80% on the day at the time of writing, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East revive concerns about global supply disruptions.
The rebound follows a sharp recovery from Friday’s low near $78.89, after developments over the weekend cast doubt on the future of the peace process between Washington and Tehran. Oil prices had previously dropped significantly after the announcement of a ceasefire earlier this month, but have since regained ground as the situation becomes more uncertain.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated on Monday that Tehran has no intention of participating in the second round of negotiations scheduled in Pakistan on Tuesday. According to Baghaei, the decision follows what he described as “aggressive acts” by the United States (US) and a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
These remarks come after the United States reportedly intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday as part of its maritime blockade. Iranian authorities have vowed retaliation, while state media suggested that Iran could withdraw entirely from the diplomatic process if the blockade remains in place.
The renewed tensions have revived concerns about potential disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical Oil transit chokepoints. Any restriction of flows through the strait could significantly tighten global supply and push prices higher.
Despite the rebound, WTI Oil remains well below the levels seen earlier this month, when prices traded around $106.50. The Crude Oil also remains below the nearly five-year high of $113.28 reached in March during the early phase of the war.
For now, investors appear to be balancing the risk of further escalation against the possibility that negotiations could resume in the coming days, a dynamic that continues to keep Oil prices volatile.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Cable recovered after an early gap lower on fresh Middle East tensions.
- Rising Oil prices and Hormuz disruption kept inflation fears elevated globally.
- UK sentiment weakened as traders awaited jobs data and Fed headlines.
GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week on a lower note, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East as the US seized an Iran-flagged vessel. At the same time, Tehran threatened to halt talks in Pakistan. The pair trades at 1.3525, up 0.13%.
Sterling recovers as traders weigh war risks and UK gloom
The US-Iran conflict is grabbing the attention as tensions boiled over the weekend, as Iran demanded that Washington end the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, Cable gapped down, opening the week at around 1.3480, but it has recovered some ground as the Greenback edges lower, some 0.05% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.17 after hitting a six-day high of 98.39 at Monday’s Asian opening on geopolitical news.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is surging sharply, up nearly 3.90% at $87.37 per barrel, adding to worldwide inflationary pressures on supply concerns and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US economic docket is absent. Yet, traders are looking ahead to April 21’s hearing before the US Senate on Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell.
In the UK, British consumer morale hit its lowest level since mid-2023, according to two surveys. S&P Global announced that consumer sentiment fell to 42.3 from 44.1, a 33-month low, while Deloitte said its quarterly gauge of confidence tanked to its lowest level since Q3 2023.
The S&P survey revealed that more than half of the respondents expect a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE).
Meanwhile, domestic political issues are weighing on Sterling, as the Sun reported that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham met with former UK Deputy PM Angela Rayner on Friday, fueling speculation that the two are plotting to oust PM Keir Starmer.
Looking ahead, the UK economic schedule will feature employment data on Tuesday. In the US, traders will eye the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, Retail Sales and Warren's appearance at the US Senate.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3524. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the latest simple moving average from the triple set at 1.3422, while also trading over the prior downtrend break level near 1.3027, suggesting underlying demand on dips. The recovery, however, still unfolds below the former uptrend break reference around 1.3844, indicating that the broader upside remains incomplete and that gains are occurring within a corrective phase rather than a clean trending move.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 1.3422 simple moving average, with a deeper cushion emerging towards the prior downtrend break level at 1.3027 if selling pressure accelerates. On the topside, a sustained push toward the 1.3844 former uptrend break zone would be needed to reopen the path to more meaningful sterling strength, while failure to hold above the moving average support would hint that the current bullish bias is starting to fade.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.11% | -0.25% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.38% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.15% | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.13% | -0.18% | 0.14% | 0.02% | -0.35% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.30% | 0.02% | -0.15% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.25% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.33% | 0.17% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.02% | -0.33% | -0.14% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.15% | -0.17% | 0.14% | -0.35% | |
| CHF | 0.38% | 0.32% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 0.16% | 0.49% | 0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CAD extends losses for a sixth straight day as the Greenback stays under pressure on US-Iran peace talk prospects.
- Canadian inflation rose in March but came in below forecasts, with headline CPI up 0.9% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
- Investors eye US-Iran talks as the current two‑week truce expires Wednesday.
USD/CAD edges lower on Monday, trimming earlier gains as shifting geopolitical headlines keep volatility elevated across FX markets, while traders also digested the latest Canadian inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3663, easing from an intraday high near 1.3709.
The pullback comes as the US Dollar (USD) softens after opening the week with a bullish gap. Tensions escalated over the weekend after Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing ceasefire violations linked to the ongoing US naval blockade. However, emerging signs of a diplomatic push, reportedly led by Pakistan, are helping to temper risk sentiment and weigh on the Greenback, lending support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
On the data front, inflation in Canada accelerated sharply in March, largely driven by higher energy prices. Data released by Statistics Canada showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, up from 0.5% in February but below market expectations of 1.1%. On an annual basis, CPI climbed to 2.4%, up from 1.8% previously, though still slightly below the 2.5% forecast.
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core inflation measures showed a mixed picture in March. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM, easing from 0.4% in February, while the annual rate ticked up to 2.5% from 2.3%.
The latest inflation data reinforces expectations that the BoC will maintain a cautious stance heading into its upcoming meeting later this month. RBC Economics said in a report that the BoC will keep a close eye on inflation expectations, but slower core price growth gives the central bank flexibility to also focus on what remains a soft economic backdrop, with the unemployment rate still elevated.
Recent remarks from BoC officials also suggest the central bank is willing to look through the initial inflationary shock, provided longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor US-Iran developments, particularly the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in a possible second round of peace talks expected this week, as the current two‑week ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump said it is “highly unlikely” he will extend the ceasefire with Iran and added that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until a deal is signed. Trump also said that he is willing to meet with senior Iranian leaders if a breakthrough is reached.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.10% | -0.22% | 0.16% | 0.01% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.09% | -0.19% | 0.19% | 0.06% | -0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.18% | 0.17% | 0.04% | -0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.26% | 0.09% | -0.09% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.36% | 0.19% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.36% | -0.14% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.19% | 0.14% | -0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.49% | 0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
TD Securities analysts note that Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% m/m in March, lifting annual inflation to 2.4% y/y, driven mainly by higher gasoline and transportation costs. However, core measures, including inflation excluding food and energy and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred metrics, softened. They expect above-trend headline inflation to persist temporarily but sees the BoC maintaining a cautious, patient policy stance.
Energy-driven CPI masks softer core
"Looking at the bigger picture, we look for the above-trend headline inflation prints to continue into the early Spring as the impact of high energy prices continues to reverberate through the economy."
"However, the Bank of Canada has taken a very cautious approach to the energy price spike, and has clearly signalled that it can look through the initial inflationary shock as long as longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored."
"The March CPI data ought to reinforce that view, as xFE inflation moved below 2.0% y/y and the share of the basket sitting above 3.0% y/y actually fell in March."
"We are also seeing weak momentum in the Bank's preferred core inflation metrics - as the 3-month annualized pace of core inflation sits comfortably below target at 1.6%."
"All told, today's print is consistent with the Bank repeating its cautious tone at next week's interest rate announcement."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Deutsche Bank’s analysts highlight sharp Brent Oil volatility as Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive price swings. They note Brent crude rebounded after a steep Friday selloff, but remains sensitive to ceasefire headlines and shipping probabilities. They stress that recent optimism on conflict resolution and energy prices may prove fragile.
Oil swings on Strait of Hormuz risk
"Recapping last week now, and markets climbed higher as prospects for a resolution between Iran and the US became more likely over the week. That was further cemented on Friday after Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz would now be open for the remaining period of the ceasefire."
"Although that was reversed less than a day later on Saturday, this helped drive Brent crude down -5.06% (-9.07% on Friday) last week to $90.38/bbl, its lowest close since March 10."
"The headline news over the weekend was Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz was shut less than 24 hours after indicating on Friday that it would reopen. Shipping through the strait has now again ground to a halt after picking up on Saturday."
"On Friday afternoon in London, Polymarket had priced the probability of Strait traffic returning to normal by the end of May as high as 84%. That has now fallen back to around 63%, close to last Thursday’s level, but still well above the 37% probability priced this time last week."
"This backdrop has meant that markets this morning have reversed a good chunk of Friday’s moves. Brent crude is up +5.61% to $95.45/bbl after a -9.07% decline on Friday, leaving it at levels seen around the middle of last week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Pound (GBP) is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) after recovering from an initial reaction to renewed US–Iran tensions. A busy United Kingdom (UK) data calendar includes jobs, Consumer Price Index (CPI) , Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and retail sales, while markets reassess risks around PM Starmer and fiscal prudence. Technically, GBP/USD is seen range-bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580 with support in the mid-to-lower 1.34s.
Stable pound within defined range
"The pound is also steady and entering Monday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD, and also recovery from a short-lived knee-jerk open reaction to the latest resurgence in tensions between the US and Iran."
"Domestic political developments are also staging a comeback as market participants assess the possibility of PM Starmer resigning and consider the implications for UK fiscal prudence."
"In terms of the BoE, comments from policymakers have offered very little in terms of guidance, framing a wide range of possible rate paths."
"GBP/USD short-term technicals: Bullish/neutral – as with EUR, the GBP’s RSI has also flattened out in modestly bullish territory with a pair of offsetting doji candles that also hints to a mixed and conflicted chart."
"We look to potential support in the mid/ lower-1.34s around the clustered 50 and 200 day MA’s and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects. ING sees a steady state for EUR/USD closer to 1.17.
ECB communication and data-heavy week
"We have a flurry of European Central Bank speakers in the early part of this week, ahead of the blackout period starting this Thursday. The main message continuing to come through is that the ECB is prepared to act (hike rates) should it be necessary, but that more time is needed. That means the market has priced out a 30 April hike and now attaches only roughly a 50% probably to a June hike."
"Our team think the ECB will indeed hike in June."
"Away from ECB speakers, the eurozone calendar is dominated by business and investor surveys. This starts with the German ZEW tomorrow, builds through the eurozone April PMIs on Thursday, and then sees the Ifo on Friday."
"March business surveys were not as bad as they could have been, and it will be interesting to see whether they deteriorated much this month."
"We are a little cautious on risk at the moment and see a steady state for EUR/USD closer to the 1.17 area."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the Pound (GBP) has underperformed alongside the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), leaving GBP/USD and EUR/GBP relatively stable near 1.3500 and 0.8700. He attributes Sterling’s weakness to sharply lower UK yields as Bank of England (BoE) rate hike expectations are scaled back, and to renewed United Kingdom (UK) political uncertainty ahead of local elections.
Sterling pressured by yields and politics
"The pound has been one of the worst performing G10 currencies over the past week alongside the US dollar and euro."
"The pound has been undermined in part by the sharp decline in UK yields over the past week as market participants have moved to scale back BoE rate hike expectations."
"Most notably Governor Bailey stated last week that markets got ahead of themselves with rate hike bets while emphasizing that it is too early to form strong judgement."
"The comments strongly imply that rates are likely to be held on hold at the next policy meeting at the end of this month."
"So far the negative impact on the pound has been limited, but UK political developments have the potential to trigger a sharper sell-off in the month ahead."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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