Forex News
TD Securities strategists revise its Federal Reserve (Fed) call, now projecting no rate cuts in 2026 and expecting the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) move to still be a cut rather than a hike. The bank sees core CPI and PCE inflation ending 2026 higher, a hawkish shift in the June SEP, and the FOMC dropping its easing bias. The Fed’s stance leaves TD less bearish on the Dollar, though a gradual USD decline is still forecast for 2026.
Fed repricing supports relative Dollar resilience
"We are revising our Fed call and no longer expect rate cuts in 2026. With the Iran conflict in a stalemate, oil prices still high, and supply chains stressed, we no longer see inflation progress as feasible this year. Additional easing in 2027 is still our base case once impacts from Iran subside."
"Our new inflation outlook has core CPI and PCE inflation ending 2026 higher than they started. The SEP projections at the June FOMC will likely be adjusted hawkishly with the median official looking for no easing in 2026."
"We also expect that the FOMC statement's easing bias will be dropped in June, a win for the hawks. Incoming Fed Chair Warsh will likely support the change as he garners credibility with the majority of the Committee."
"The Fed staying on hold makes us less bearish on the USD than before. However, we still maintain a downward USD forecast path in 2026 on asymmetric USD risks owing to developments in Iran along with the Fed maintaining a relatively less hawkish stance vs global central banks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD decline extends to over one-month lows at 1.1620 amid broad-based US Dollar strength.
- Concerns about the stalled US-Iran conflict and rising bets of Fed rate hikes are boosting the Greenback.
- The Euro struggles as Oil prices above $100 pose a serious threat to the Eurozone's economic growth.
The Euro (EUR) extends its decline against the Dollar (USD) on Friday, falling below 1.1650 for the first time since early April, on track for a 1.2% weekly depreciation. Risk-averse markets, coupled with higher US Treasury yields amid rising bets of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil price above $100, have created the perfect storm for the Euro.
The Greenback has outperformed its peers this week, fuelled by a mix of concerns about the deadlocked US-Iran conflict and rising US inflation, which have boosted bets on Fed rate hikes in late 2026. Beyond that, the lack of progress in the peace process with Iran has pushed WTI Oil price past the key $100 level, adding pressure on Oil-importing Eurozone economies.
Technical Analysis: Euro bears break key support at 1.1645
EUR/USD comes under strong bearish pressure on Friday after falling continuously over the last four days. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits deep in oversold territory, hinting at a stretched downside momentum, as bears retain control. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the same timeframe remains in negative territory, pointing to prevailing selling pressure.
The pair has found support at a previous resistance area around 1.1620, and the overstretched conditions hint at some consolidation. The pair, however, remains vulnerable while below 1.1645. Further down, there is no clear support area until the early-April lows, right above 1.1500.
A bullish reaction, on the contrary, is likely to meet resistance at Thursday's highs around 1.1720. Further up, the top of the last three weeks' trading range, around 1.1795, and April's peak, at 1.1850. would be the next upside targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened as United States (US) yields moved higher and data remained resilient. Retail sales matched expectations, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was revised up, underscoring solid economic momentum. Short-end Treasury yields broke above 4%, while the 10-year yield reached a 10‑month high, underpinning the Dollar’s performance.
Firm US data and yields back Dollar
"And in turn, 2yr Treasury yields (+3.9bps) rose above 4% for the first time since June 2025."
"The moves were more muted further out the curve however, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.3bps) inching up to a 10-month high of 4.48%."
"Elsewhere, markets got further support from a robust batch of US data. In particular, retail sales showed signs of resilience, with the headline measure up +0.5% in April as expected."
"And in turn, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 moved up from an annualised +3.7% rate to +4.0%, suggesting the economy remained on a strong footing."
"Indeed, Brent crude oil prices are up another +1.21% overnight to $107.00/bbl. And in turn, those inflation concerns have pushed the 10yr Treasury yield up +3.5bps this morning to 4.52%, its highest level since May last year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD rallies to monthly highs above 1.3750 on track for a 0.5% weekly gain.
- The Greenback surges across the board on risk-off markets and rising bets of Fed rate hikes.
- The Trump-Xi summit has provided additional support to the USD despite the lack of concrete agreements.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with the USD/CAD pair trading in the mid-range of the 1.3700s after rallying about 0.5% so far this week. A combination of risk-off markets and higher US Treasury yields amid growing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes is providing ideal conditions for Greenback buyers.
The summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered more compliments than concrete agreements, but given the controversial issues of Iran and Taiwan looming over the meeting, a friendly outcome has been considered enough to provide a further boost to the US Dollar.
The Greenback has been drawing support from US macroeconomic data this week, as the strong US inflationary numbers, coupled with resilient Retail Sales figures, have prompted investors to bet on a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months. The CME FedWatch Tool is now pricing a nearly 50% chance of at least one rate hike before the end of the year, up from less than 15% one week before. This has boosted US Treasury yields and is underpinning speculative demand for the USD.
On the macroeconomic data front, the focus on Friday will be on the Canadian Manufacturing Sales from March, and Housing Starts figures from April, while in the US, a few hours later, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Industrial Production will provide further insight about the strength og the manufacturing sector.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Commerzbank's Commodity Analyst Barbara Lambrecht highlights that Copper has surged to record levels on the London Metal Exchange, supported by structural demand from the energy transition and data centers. At the same time, the US is considering extending tariffs to refined Copper from 2027, encouraging pre-emptive stockpiling and tightening supply outside the US. Chinese production data due next week will be closely watched.
Record prices and looming US tariffs
"In the base metals markets, sentiment remains positive despite another significant rise in energy prices: The London Metal Exchange index even hit a new record high this week. A ton of copper cost more than USD 14,000."
"In addition to concerns about a shortage of copper ore, fears of an expansion of US tariffs on metal imports are likely also playing a role in the current copper price rally. The US Department of Commerce is expected to decide by the end of June whether to extend the existing tariffs to refined copper."
"The original proposal called for the introduction of a 15% tariff effective January 1, 2027. One year later, this was to be increased to 30%."
"In contrast, imports nearly doubled last year, likely due to stockpiling ahead of the potential introduction of tariffs. This trend could intensify again as the US Department of Commerce’s decision draws nearer."
"And indeed, since mid-April, inventories on the COMEX have already begun rising again, which is tightening supply outside the US."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Carsten Brzeski argues that Europe has yet to earn its “global euro moment” outlined by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2025. Despite progress on initiatives like the Savings and Investment Union and capital markets reforms, he stresses that fragmented capital markets and large, underused household savings continue to limit the Euro’s strategic international role.
Structural savings and market fragmentation persist
"And one year ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde stood in Berlin and declared that the fracturing global order had created Europe’s “global euro moment”: a rare chance to step up, earn influence, and reshape the international monetary system in Europe’s favour. Twelve months on, let’s be honest: the optics are not good."
"And yet – to borrow from Monty Python’s Life of Brian – what has Europe ever done for us? Well, over the last 12 months: the Savings and Investment Union, launched in March 2025. A securitisation reform. A market integration and supervision package. Updated payment services rules. A Savings and Investment Accounts recommendation. EIB [European Investment Bank] defence investment tripled. EU defence spending is up 36% since 2022. A joint letter from Europe’s six largest economies demanding capital markets agreement by the summer."
"Europe’s “global euro moment” is still waiting to be earned. The more useful question, perhaps, is not what the Romans have done for us but what we are still willing to do for them. The window is open."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD hits two-week lows near 0.5840, on track for a more than 2% weekly decline.
- Higher US yields and escalating Oil prices are boosting the US Dollar across the board.
- New Zealand's Business NZ PMI slowed down to a seven-month low of 50.5 in April.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) accelerates its reversal against a stronger US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The pair trades at two-week lows right above 0.5840 at the time of writing, on track to a more than 2% weekly selloff, crushed by a risk-off sentiment amid the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict and higher Oil prices, as Brent crude reaches prices near $110.00.
The US Dollar is marching higher across the board on Friday, boosted by higher US Treasury yields amid rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, following the US inflation data released earlier in the week. Beyond that, US President Donald Trump´s comments affirming that China has agreed to buy Oil from the US have boosted Crude prices, adding pressure on the Kiwi, as New Zealand is a net Oil importer.
In New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI, released earlier on Friday, showed that manufacturing activity slowed down to a seven-month low of 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March, which has failed to improve confidence in the Kiwi.
Technical Analysis: next support is at 0.5815
NZD/USD keeps a clear bearish bias after dropping about 2% over the last four days. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, both hinting at persistent downside momentum despite stretched conditions.
With momentum indicators looking overstretched, there is little room for further depreciation, and sellers might be attracted by the late April lows in the 0.5815 area. Further down, the April 13 low, at the 0.5795 area, seems out of reach today.
Upside attempts, on the other hand, are likely to be limited below a previous support area above 0.5920 (May 13 low) ahead of the weekly top, at the 0.5970 area, and May's peak, right above 0.5990.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.96% | 1.06% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | 0.02% | -0.24% | -0.12% | 0.65% | 0.78% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.02% | -0.25% | -0.13% | 0.63% | 0.74% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.14% | 0.89% | 1.01% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | 0.12% | 0.13% | -0.14% | 0.74% | 0.84% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.96% | -0.65% | -0.63% | -0.89% | -0.74% | 0.12% | -0.73% | |
| NZD | -1.06% | -0.78% | -0.74% | -1.01% | -0.84% | -0.12% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.16% | -0.02% | 0.73% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
