Forex News
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she supported leaving rates unchanged at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as she awaits more data. She added that inflation risks outweigh job market risks, while reaffirming her full commitment to restoring price stability.
Despite siding with the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, Cool warned, “If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act,” in a speech at an event in Alaska.
She commented that inflation has been persistently high for five years, though she didn’t rule out the possibility that inflation levels could cool.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD was broadly flat on Tuesday, with SGD NEER trading 1.5–2.0% above its mid-point, implying a 1.2773–1.2837 range. Intraday, they expect consolidation between 1.2805 and 1.2840. Over the coming weeks, downside risk persists but only below 1.2790, with 1.2765 the next level if that support breaks.
Downside bias while range persists
"24-HOUR VIEW: We expected USD to “trade in a range between 1.2805 and 1.2845” yesterday. However, USD traded within a narrower range than expected (1.2815/1.2840), closing largely unchanged at 1.2819 (-0.06%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range today, most likely between 1.2805 and 1.2840."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815), we highlighted that while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” Although USD subsequently tested 1.2790, it has not been able to make further headway on the downside. That said, we will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2860 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.2875) is not breached. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.2790 is 1.2765."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN extends nine-day slide as soft ADP pressures Dollar.
- Hormuz deal hopes support risk appetite before Banxico decision.
- Fed hawks keep tightening risks alive ahead of NFP.
The Mexican Peso extends its gains for the ninth consecutive day on Wednesday, as the US Dollar remains on the back foot amid softer-than-expected US jobs data ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report. The USD/MXN trades at 17.24, down 0.10%.
USD/MXN tumbles on weak US hiring data, ahead of Banxico’s meeting
According to a N12 report by Ravid, citing senior officials and sources, the agreement between Oman and Iran could be announced as early as tonight. The points of the deal include a temporary 60-day arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, with a possible extension and the renewal of the ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The deal reveals that inbound ships will sail through Iranian waters, with Oman waters used as an exit from the Persian Gulf. This will allow 30 days for both parties to clear the mines from the central channel of Hormuz.
A Reuters poll revealed that most economists expect the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold rates unchanged at 6.50% at the August 6 meeting. Recent data revealed that Consumer Confidence improved in June, while traders wait for the release of inflation data on Friday, which is expected to rise from -0.27% to 0.03% MoM. Core inflation is projected to dip from 0.24% to 0.22%.
In the US, the economic docket revealed that business activity in the services sector expanded below estimates, but improved. A measure of inflation within the ISM Services PMI edged higher, increasing the chances for further tightening by the Fed.
Regarding the labour market, private hiring in July eased from 98K to 44K, below estimates of 70K, according to the ADP Employment Change report.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials are grabbing the headlines. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is ready to raise rates if inflation doesn’t cool, while adding that she favoured keeping interest rates steady to await further data.
Earlier, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it is now appropriate to begin a gradual rate hike with moderate increases rather than sharp jumps. Jeffrey Schmid from the Kansas City Fed added that maintaining a strict monetary policy is essential to fight "too high" inflation.
Investors' eyes turn to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures for July on Friday. Economists expect job creation of 80K and the Unemployment Rate to remain steady at around 4.2%.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.2377, extending its decline beneath the triple simple moving average (SMA) cluster, whose latest reading stands at 17.4126 and now acts as immediate resistance. Price location below this major average keeps the near-term bias bearish, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.6 drifts toward oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still in place but becoming stretched.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the triple SMA around 17.41, with further supply aligning with the shorter-term downward resistance trend line drawn from 18.1651 and, higher up, the broader descending trend line projected from the 21.0808 cycle high. In the absence of nearby mapped supports from the provided data, any attempt to stabilize would likely need a recovery back above the 17.41 area to ease immediate bearish pressure and open room for a corrective bounce within the dominant downward structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that foreign demand for Japanese equities remains subdued compared with interest in JPY and JGBs. Despite a 22% JPY-based return for the MSCI Japan Index in 2025, international investors’ holdings lagged benchmarks, with flows constrained by allocation limits and Japan’s lesser role in the semiconductor theme. He argues that any rebalancing is more likely to favor JGBs.
Flows lag performance and benchmarks
"In our recent special report on Japan’s intervention, we highlighted that interest in owning JPY and JGBs is already emerging. Equities remain the weak link. Despite its industrial prowess, Japan hasn’t been as prominent in the semiconductor/memory chip theme as Taiwan and South Korea."
"The recent correction does create space for Japan, if a long-term growth and earnings narrative can be established. The initial reaction to JPY strength would also undermine Japanese equities due to earnings translation. Equities also comprise the bulk of cross-border portfolio investment in Japan (63% as of end-2025), so any rebalancing will likely favor the JGB market."
"Japanese survey data as of end-2025 don’t point to a surge flow story. In JPY terms, based on the MSCI Japan Index, Japanese equities returned 22% over the year. The median gain in holdings by key international investors was 17%, somewhat behind benchmarks."
"The U.S. and Europe account for nearly 90% of all international equity holdings in Japan, totaling nearly ¥320tn as of the end of 2025. Rather than respond to the earnings outlook, structural shifts in hedge ratios will have the biggest impact, especially if front-end rates show closer sign of alignment. However, currency markets will need to be realistic about the numbers."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee argues that Asian currencies may face repricing risk as global policymakers increasingly resist competitive depreciation. He highlights US support for Japanese Yen stabilization as a signal to curb broader Asian currency weakness and notes European Union concerns over Chinese Yuan undervaluation. Wee concludes investors should focus more on Asian currency appreciation risks than further depreciation.
Focus shifts to appreciation risks
"For Asian currencies, however, the more important signal came from US Treasury Scott Bessent."
"He confirmed that Washington’s support for Japan’s efforts to stabilize the JPY from four-decade lows was also intended to prevent a wave of Asian currency depreciation."
"We are mindful that the European Union wants to press China over the CNY’s undervaluation as part of wider concerns about trade imbalances."
"Taken together, these developments reinforce the case for investors to pay closer attention to Asian currency appreciation than depreciation risks."
"With both the JPY and CNY under growing international scrutiny, global policymakers appear increasingly aligned in discouraging competitive currency weakness."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD gains 0.2% and trades near 1.1560, extending its recovery toward the top of the recent range.
- ADP Employment Change rose by just 44K in July, badly missing the 70K forecast and slowing from 98K.
- Reuters reports Iran and Oman are in the final stages of drafting an agreement on Strait of Hormuz shipping.
EUR/USD trades on the front foot near 1.1560 on Wednesday, adding around 0.2% as a weak United States (US) labor market report undermines the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) slips 0.22% toward 99.70, remaining below the 100.00 threshold, while the pair pushes toward the upper boundary of the range that has contained price action since late July.
The ADP Employment Change rose by 44K in July, missing expectations of 70K and slowing from 98K in June. The report follows Tuesday's weaker-than-expected JOLTS Job Openings data, which showed vacancies falling to 7.359 million, and points to a labor market losing momentum more quickly than the activity surveys had suggested.
Meanwhile, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 54.1 in July from 54 in June but fell short of the 54.5 market forecast. The internals carried a mixed message: the Employment Index tumbled to 47.4 from 51.2, dropping into contraction and corroborating the ADP shortfall, while New Orders jumped to 57.2 from 55.1. The Prices Paid component climbed to 70.3 from 67.7, an unwelcome combination for the Federal Reserve (Fed) of cooling employment alongside firming services costs.
Geopolitics continues to shape the broader risk backdrop. Reuters reported that Iran and Oman are in the final stages of drafting an agreement on how to handle commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, an arrangement that would give Tehran greater control over vessels transiting the waterway. Citing a senior Iranian source involved in the negotiations, the agency added that Tehran has already abandoned its original demand for full control over traffic in both directions but is not expected to soften its stance further. President Donald Trump has said a deal could be announced within days, although officials familiar with the talks have cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain.
Attention now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, the week's decisive event. With ADP and the ISM employment gauge both flagging a deterioration in hiring, a soft official print would confirm the trend and likely accelerate the Dollar's decline, opening the door for EUR/USD to challenge the highs.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1558. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it tests a nearby pivot at 1.1558 while remaining underpinned by a cluster of supports just below, including the short-term 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1527 and a horizontal level at 1.1543. The longer-term 100-period MA at 1.1443 stays well below current price, reinforcing the broader upward tone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under the overbought band near 69 suggests firm but mature bullish momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.1543, followed by 1.1532 and the 1.1527 zone where the 20-period MA converges with a horizontal level, forming a dense demand area; a break below that region would expose the deeper 100-period MA support near 1.1443. On the topside, a sustained break above the immediate pivot at 1.1558 would open the door to further gains, with momentum conditions hinting that buyers could attempt to extend the advance as long as the nearby support band continues to hold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- XAG/USD jumps over 4%, but the 50-day SMA caps upside.
- Bullish RSI signals buyers may attempt further gains.
- Failure below $62 exposes $59.40 and yearly lows.
Silver (XAG/USD) price surges more than 4% on Wednesday as the Greenback remains on the back foot due to softer-than-expected jobs and data, though the fall was capped as business activity in the services sector continued to expand. Also, a test of key technical resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $62.65 limits the white metal advance. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $62.21, its highest level in the last month.
Silver Price Forecast: Technical outlook
As of writing, it seems that Silver is poised to extend its gains, but it is crucial to clear the 50-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum has shifted bullish, meaning that the path of least resistance is upwards.
If bulls want to regain total control, they must reclaim the psychological $65 level. Once done, their focus needs to be on the 100-day SMA at $69.22, before challenging the $70 milestone, last reached in mid-June. The next area of interest emerges at the 200-day SMA at $71.06.
Downwards, if XAG/USD retreats and ends the day below $62, it opens the door for a move to the August 3 swing low of $59.40. If broken, this opens the way towards retesting yearly lows of $54.77.
Silver Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD), with modestly better PMIs but a fading fundamental backdrop as 2-year spreads give back gains since late June. With limited data before the August 13 Q2 GDP release, they remain medium-term bullish, expecting GBP/USD to trade between 1.3420 and 1.3520 near term within a broader 1.31–1.35 range.
Sterling steady with medium-term bullish bias
"The pound is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD. The Final services and composite PMI’s for July saw fractional improvements while indicating marginal growth overall."
"The release calendar is limited over the next week or so with no major data scheduled ahead of the preliminary Q2 GDP print on August 13."
"The fundamental picture for the GBP looks to have faded since mid-July, with 2Y spreads relinquishing much of their recovery from late June."
"The options market offers some reassurance, likely reflecting a continued improvement in sentiment towards the UK’s political situation."
"Neutral/bullish—the RSI is slightly above the neutral threshold at 50 and looks to have found a more solid footing in the aftermath of last week’s gains."
"The local range remains bound between late June support in the mid1.31s and mid-July resistance in the mid-1.35s. We remain medium-term bulls and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3420 and 1.3520."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold breaks 50-day SMA, surging toward a seven-week high before NFP.
- Soft ADP jobs and weaker Dollar fuel bullion’s breakout momentum.
- Hawkish Fed voices and NFP risk may test Gold bulls.
Gold (XAU/USD) price surges to its highest level in nearly seven weeks, gaining nearly 3.80% on Wednesday as the Greenback loses ground and US Treasury yields fail to gain traction. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,232, its highest level since June 18, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,065.
Bullion clears $4,200 on USD weakness, soft ADP data and Hormuz deal hopes
The yellow metal strengthened sharply as it cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,161, clearing on its way north the $4,200 mark. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.12% at 99.76.
The US economic docket is busy this week, with traders eyeing the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls figures on Friday. Economists expect job creation of 80K and the Unemployment Rate to remain steady at around 4.2%.
Earlier, the July ADP Employment Change report was weaker than anticipated, dropping from 98K to 44K, below the forecast of 70K. The data indicated that education and health services increased their workforce by 36K, whereas leisure and hospitality decreased by 11K.
At the same time, business activity in the services sector remained strong in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Services PMI improved from 54 to 54.1, though it missed estimates by 0.4 points. The sub-components of employment and prices paid contracted and expanded, respectively. The Employment diffusion index dipped from 51.2 to 47.4, while the Prices Paid rose from 67.7 to 70.3, extending the trend to 110 months.
Fed Regional Bank Presidents remain hawkish amid a split FOMC
Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari stated that it is now appropriate to start gradually raising rates, emphasising moderate increases rather than dramatic hikes. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Schmid of the Kansas City Fed indicated that a strict monetary policy is necessary to address inflation considered "too high."
The de-escalation of the Gulf War is a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. Although crude prices are edging lower and easing inflationary pressures, investors remain skeptical of a positive outcome, as they expect a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting, according to Prime Terminal.
A report by N12, citing American officials, commented that the signing of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be possible as early as Wednesday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold clears the latest cycle high, as market structure shifts neutral
Gold price has shifted to a neutral stance after the yellow metal surpassed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,161, opening the door for further gains. Momentum has shifted bullishly, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), meaning that in the near term, the path of least resistance is upward.
XAU/USD’s first resistance is the $4,300 mark. Above lies the June 17 cycle high of $4,382, ahead of reaching the 100-day SMA at $4,499 near the psychological $4,500 mark.
On the flip side, the first support is the July 6 high, which turned into support at $4,202. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA, followed by the $4,100 mark. Beneath is the August 3 daily low of $4,019. Breaking that level could lead to a decline to $4,000.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- WTI stays near a three-week low as traders await confirmation that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume.
- EIA data show an unexpected build in US crude inventories.
- The technical outlook stays bearish below the major daily moving averages, with the $67.00-$70.00 zone offering support.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil remains under pressure on Wednesday but struggles to attract fresh selling as traders await confirmation that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $74 per barrel, hovering near three-week lows.
Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on the geographic coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the waterway. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said a joint statement is in the final stages of review and drafting, provided “third parties” do not interfere.
However, an informed source told Fars News that an agreement between Iran and Oman would not automatically reopen the Strait. Separate arrangements would still be required, including the fulfilment of US commitments.
Until a final agreement is reached and shipping resumes, a geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain embedded in Oil prices, limiting the scope for a deeper decline.
Meanwhile, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that Crude Oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.479 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel decline. Stocks had fallen by 7.167 million barrels in the previous week.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, the near-term bias remains bearish as the price holds well below the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
Momentum indicators reinforce the corrective tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingering below the neutral 50 mark around 42 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) staying below the zero line with a negative reading, hinting that sellers still retain control.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA near $79.58, followed closely by the 21-day SMA at $80.27, forming a nearby supply zone that could cap any extension of the recovery, with the 100-day SMA higher up at $87.43 acting as a more distant barrier.
On the downside, the $67.00-$70.00 zone offers immediate support. A decisive break below this area could open the door to a deeper decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
