Forex News
- The Swiss Franc gives up some of its gains against the US Dollar.
- Oil prices recover amid fears of a prolonged US-Iran war.
- Investors await the US CPI data for June, which will be released next week.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) pares some of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Friday. The USD/CHF pair is 0.26% lower at around 0.8048 even after a slight recovery move.
The Swiss Franc pair surrenders some gains as the US Dollar attracts slight bids amid a recovery in oil prices. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.14% lower to near 100.80 after revisiting the three-week low of 100.60 earlier in the day.
Oil prices corrected sharply on Thursday after a United States (US) official confirmed that technical talks with Iran are still on despite President Donald Trump declaring the collapse of the memorandum of understanding (MoU).
However, continued exchange of attacks between the US and Iran have resurfaced fears of energy supply disruption, a scenario that could prompt the US inflationary pressures further.
To get cues regarding the current status of US inflation, investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. The data is expected to show that the core CPI – which excludes volatile items such as food and oil – grew at a steady pace of 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY).
On the Swiss Franc front, the currency trades higher against its major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid a cautious market mood.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- AUD/USD gains some follow-through traction amid a weaker USD, though bulls seem hesitant.
- Iran risks and prospects of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 limit USD losses, capping the pair.
- The RBA’s hawkish tilt might continue to support the Aussie, warranting some caution for bears.
The AUD/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs to a two-and-a-half-week top, around the 0.6970 area, during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around mid-0.6900s, still up 0.10% for the day.
Against the backdrop of Wednesday's less hawkish FOMC Minutes, hopes for diplomacy to ease tensions in the Middle East drag the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to an over one-week low and act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran had called to make a deal with the US. Furthermore, a White House official signaled that the US is still committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran as technical talks over Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz continue.
However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid renewed fighting between the US and Iran. In fact, the US military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran earlier this week in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting American allies across the region and bombing US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait. Apart from this, prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026 help limit USD losses and cap the AUD/USD pair.
Any meaningful corrective pullback, however, seems elusive in the wake of hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In fact, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned earlier this week that if elevated global energy prices persist due to the Iran conflict, further monetary tightening could be warranted to return inflation to target. In the absence of any relevant economic releases, the fundamental backdrop backs the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair's recent recovery from a three-month low, touched in June.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.47% | -0.04% | -0.10% | -0.23% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.39% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.35% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.47% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.43% | 0.36% | 0.21% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.43% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.36% | 0.07% | -0.14% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.11% | -0.21% | 0.21% | 0.14% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.12% | -0.21% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3430 in Friday’s early European session.
- The constructive outlook of the pair prevails above the 100-day SMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 1.3475; the initial support level is seen at 1.3405.
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3430 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes underpin the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD).
Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20.
Traders have ramped up bets on the BoE interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) BoE rate increase by year-end, most likely in December, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a modest bullish bias as it sits above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA. The pair is edging higher toward the upper Bollinger band, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers just below the 60 mark, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum as price grinds higher within the broader range.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3475, and a daily close above this cap would open the way for the April 15 high of 1.3579. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3405. A deeper pullback would expose the Bollinger midline near 1.3305, while the lower band around 1.3130 marks a more distant floor guarding the broader uptrend structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- WTI attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback from a multi-week high.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.
- A sustained strength beyond the 23.6% Fibo. is needed to back the case for further gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of a three-week high. The black liquid reclaims the $72.00 mark during the Asian session and remains on track to register weekly gains for the first time in the previous five.
From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from the lowest level since February, touched last week, faltered near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall earlier this week. Moreover, Crude Oil prices remain below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping a bearish near-term tone amid mixed momentum indicators.
In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive and advances above its signal line, hinting at an ongoing corrective bounce. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 still leans toward weak demand, suggesting rallies could remain capped while Crude Oil prices trade under the 23.6% Fibo. and the 200-day EMA.
Meanwhile, any meaningful upside is likely to face initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibo. level at $75.81, followed by the 200-day EMA at about $77.18, with further barriers at the 38.2% retracement near $81.50 and the 50% level around $86.11. On the downside, the primary structural support is the recent cycle low around $66.60, where a break would expose deeper bearish extension despite the currently improving technical backdrop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,617.90 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,633.71 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 147,173.10 per tola from INR 147,357.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,617.90 |
10 Grams | 126,178.70 |
Tola | 147,173.10 |
Troy Ounce | 392,461.00 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EUR/USD remains supported by the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-led USD weakness.
- The lack of follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibo. warrants caution for bulls.
- The bearish flag pattern backs the case for the emergence of sellers at higher levels.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh weekly high, around the 1.1460 area, during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is seen prolonging the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-inspired slide and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit further USD losses and cap spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance or build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Moreover, the recovery from the year-to-date low has been along an upward-sloping channel, which now seems to constitute the formation of a bearish flag pattern, leaving the recent gains capped within the broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators, however, remain constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above zero and showing a modestly positive histogram. This suggests downside pressure is limited while the EUR/USD pair stays supported by the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the 1.1400 mark, which should act as a pivotal point.
A convincing breakdown below the said handle would expose the deeper structural supports clustered near 1.1327–1.1323. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period EMA at 1.1491, followed closely by the channel top at 1.1494. A sustained strength and acceptance above this zone would open the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.1524 and the 50.0% level around 1.1586, if the bullish momentum extends further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.4145 in Friday’s early European session.
- Fed officials were split on the direction of interest rates at the last meeting.
- Iranian media said military sites in two cities were targeted in further attacks late Thursday.
The USD/CAD pair loses momentum to near 1.4145 during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on receding expectations of a rate increase from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The minutes from the Fed's June 16 to 17 meeting, the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, showed concern about high inflation mounted among policymakers, and a few participants saw a case to hike the interest rates.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that despite the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a rate hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the July meeting eased back to 24.6% from 31% in the prior session, but up from 18.2% a week ago. For the September policy meeting, markets are pricing in a 62.3% probability of a hike, down from the 66.6% on Wednesday but an increase from the 54.1% a week earlier.
Crude oil prices remain elevated amid shopping traffic slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz. Late Thursday, Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility. The reports came after an earlier wave of US strikes, which was followed by Iranian missile fire at a US base in Jordan. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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