Forex News
Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi’s US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January. USD/CNY rebounded after briefly dipping below 6.70, helped by higher US Treasury yields and a modest easing of PBoC control, while the central bank reiterated a moderately loose stance and commitment to Yuan stability.
Policy support and controlled flexibility
"China and US extend trade truce until January, but no major new outcomes emerged from President Xi's visit - even the much-anticipated agreements on additional tariff cuts and an AI dialogue mechanism failed to materialize."
"USD/CNY bounced back after a brief move below 6.70 as higher Treasury yields combined with a modest easing of the PBoC’s grip on the currency."
"The PBoC reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary stance, pledged to keep the yuan broadly stable and signalled a willingness to adjust policy tools as required. Chinese banks left both the 1y and 5y loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively."
"Liquidity support was stepped up, with the PBoC raising the daily reverse repo cap to CNY1tn and injecting a net CNY200bn through MLF operations."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack said on Friday the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are not in conflict. She said that “high inflation complicates economic planning,” and that she doesn’t see current policy as restraining the economy.
Hammack added that inflation expectations are “well anchored.”
Key highlights:
There are lots of long-term questions on what AI will mean for inflation
Sides of Fed mandates are generally not in conflict
Persistently high inflation has 'real costs', pressures wages
High inflation complicates economic planning
Fed policy is not restraining activity outside of housing
Don't see current policy as restraining the economy
Rising bond yields driven by a number of factors
Good economic outlook is pressuring up bond yields
Some of what the bond market is doing is in reaction to the Fed and government policy
AI investment demand is competing for investors in the bond market
Inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored
The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path
I am mindful of financial conditions, but the Fed is the decision maker on monetary policy
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.23% | -1.08% | 0.05% | -0.24% | -0.07% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.91% | 0.22% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | 0.07% | -0.83% | 0.28% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.27% | |
| JPY | 1.08% | 0.91% | 0.83% | 1.16% | 0.85% | 1.01% | 1.14% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.22% | -0.28% | -1.16% | -0.30% | -0.14% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.08% | 0.01% | -0.85% | 0.30% | 0.16% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -1.01% | 0.14% | -0.16% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.27% | -1.14% | 0.02% | -0.29% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD held steady around 1.2800 after Wednesday’s surge, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) supported by expectations of further MAS tightening. Their Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) model sits 1.76% above the mid-point, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.2764–1.2828 today, while renewed Dollar momentum keeps focus on resistance at 1.2835.
Dollar holds firm against Singapore Dollar
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following the strong surge on Wednesday, USD consolidated between 1.2788 and 1.2811 yesterday, closing unchanged at 1.2800. USD is likely to continue to consolidate today, probably between 1.2780 and 1.2815."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD two weeks ago. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (23 Sep, spot at 1.2750), we noted that “upward momentum is starting to ease, and a break below 1.2725 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the advance in USD has stalled.” USD subsequently surged to a high of 1.2813. The renewed upward momentum suggests USD could test the significant resistance level at 1.2835 (we highlighted this level on 17 Sep, as well as in the 1-3 months view below). On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.2770."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Boris Vujcic said on Friday that the ECB started a tightening cycle and sees a “risk of higher for longer energy prices." He added that diesel prices will stay high for a long time, feeding into inflation.
Key highlights:
We have started a tightening cycle
See risk of higher for longer energy prices
It seems the price of crude will come down but not that of refined products
Diesel prices will stay for long, feeding into inflation
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.23% | -1.05% | 0.07% | -0.24% | -0.06% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.09% | -0.90% | 0.21% | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | 0.09% | -0.81% | 0.30% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.29% | |
| JPY | 1.05% | 0.90% | 0.81% | 1.14% | 0.81% | 0.98% | 1.13% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.30% | -1.14% | -0.32% | -0.15% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.81% | 0.32% | 0.18% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.98% | 0.15% | -0.18% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.20% | -0.29% | -1.13% | 0.02% | -0.31% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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