Forex News
- EUR/GBP remains subdued as UK headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% YoY in March.
- Rabobank’s Jane Foley says UK politics and Labour’s election outlook may weigh on GBP sentiment.
- ECB’s Lagarde warns Eurozone outlook is highly uncertain amid enormous energy supply shock.
EUR/GBP extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.8690 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross remains subdued ahead of the United Kingdom’s (UK) March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% YoY from 3.0%, while the Core CPI is projected to remain steady at 3.2%.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data delivered a mixed picture for March. The ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 4.9%, beating the 5.2% consensus. However, the Claimant Count rose by 26.8K, exceeding the 21.4K forecast, while the 3M Employment Change slowed to 25K from 84K previously. Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses cooled down at a moderate pace to 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) against estimates of 3.5%.
Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, said that UK political uncertainty, including PM Starmer’s standing and Labour’s May election outlook, may weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP) sentiment. Foley notes GBP’s earlier strength was driven by aggressive Bank of England (BoE) tightening bets, now scaled back, leaving the currency exposed amid persistent inflation and rate volatility.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned the Eurozone outlook remains highly uncertain amid an enormous energy supply shock linked to Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While energy prices haven’t yet reached worst-case levels, Lagarde emphasized the outlook remains fragile.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said on Wednesday that the central bank has ‘luxury’ to wait on interest rate rises.
Key quotes
Uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict is very high.
But from the data that we currently see, there is no urgency to raise interest rates just yet.
We are not in a rush.
We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view.
But if necessary, we will of course move.
The impact of the Middle East conflict on the real economy is only gradually feeding through.
We can afford to monitor what happens and then take the decision when we have the broader picture.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.10% on the day at 1.1755.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Wednesday that it has received a report of an incident 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman, where the master of a container ship reported being approached by an IRGC gunboat.
The vessel was subsequently fired upon, sustaining heavy damage to its bridge, though no fires or environmental impact were reported and all crew members were safe.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.24% on the day at $88.60.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/JPY drifts higher to near 114.05 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- The cross keeps the positive outlook above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 115.35; the initial support level is seen at 111.90.
The AUD/JPY cross gains momentum to around 114.05 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran, even as the US military maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran peace talks. Any signs of prolonged conflict between two countries or in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the JPY and create a headwind for the cross.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a clear bullish bias as spot remains well above the 20-day simple moving average from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day exponential moving average, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Price is pushing toward the upper Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index at 68.62 hovers just below overbought territory, suggesting strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the Bollinger upper band at 115.35, where buyers could begin to take profit if momentum fades. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 111.90, with a deeper pullback exposing a demand cluster around the 100-day EMA at 108.55 and the lower Bollinger Band at 108.45, which should act as a firm medium-term floor while the bullish structure prevails.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD holds losses as the US Dollar firms on heightened caution amid Middle East uncertainty.
- Trump extends the ceasefire after the second round of US-Iran peace talks collapsed.
- ECB’s Lagarde warns Eurozone outlook is highly uncertain amid enormous energy supply shock.
EUR/USD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1740 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair holds little losses as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground on increased market caution amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire until negotiations between the two sides make progress, per Bloomberg. The US blockade on Iranian vessels continues after the second round of talks collapsed. Iran’s military warned of strong strikes on preselected targets following repeated threats from Trump.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the Navy will maintain its blockade of Iranian ports, targeting Tehran’s key revenue sources by restricting maritime trade. The UK Defence Ministry said military planners from over 30 countries will meet in London for two days from Wednesday to advance efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and finalize detailed plans.
On the data front, US Retail Sales increased 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March, compared to the 0.7% rise (revised from 0.6%) recorded in February. The figure exceeded market expectations of 1.4%. On a YoY basis, Retail Sales rose 4.0% in March, matching February’s reading. On the Eurozone side, the preliminary readings of the HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be eyed on Thursday.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned on Tuesday that the Eurozone outlook remains highly uncertain amid an enormous energy supply shock linked to Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While energy prices haven’t yet reached worst-case levels, Lagarde emphasized the outlook remains fragile.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid a combination of diverging forces.
- The US-Iran ceasefire extension weighs on the USD and acts as a headwind for spot prices.
- Retreating Crude Oil prices undermine the Loonie and support the pair amid a mixed setup.
The USD/CAD pair fails to capitalize on the previous day's modest recovery from the 1.3630 region, or its lowest level since March 13, and remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bearish conviction and currently trade just above mid-1.3600s, down only 0.05% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) edges lower in reaction to a temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the latest optimism exerts some downward pressure on Crude Oil prices, undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and offering some support to the currency pair. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets amid persistent uncertainties surrounding US-Iran peace talks.
This week's fall below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March upswing comes on top of a breakdown through the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and favors the USD/CAD bears. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 39 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that sellers still have the upper hand, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edges slightly into positive territory near the zero line.
The mixed technical setup suggests only tentative stabilization rather than a clear bullish shift. Hence, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3680, followed by the 50% retracement at 1.3735 and the 200-period EMA at 1.3761. A sustained break above this band would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the way toward 1.3790 en route to 1.3858.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at 1.3602, with a drop through this level exposing the March swing low near 1.3525 and the 1.3500 psychological mark as the next significant bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.00% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.24% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.27% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.00% | -0.05% | -0.20% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.18% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.15% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.27% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,391.56 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 14,282.78 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 167,860.20 per tola from INR 166,591.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,391.56 |
10 Grams | 143,912.10 |
Tola | 167,860.20 |
Troy Ounce | 447,623.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- AUD/USD gains traction to around 0.7160 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Trump said the US is extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request.
- Markets expect the RBA to further raise the rate due to rising fuel costs and inflation.
The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory near 0.7160 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the potential upside for the pair might be limited amid uncertainty regarding Iran's participation in further peace talks.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran while awaiting a “unified proposal” from Tehran. Trump also stated that he would maintain a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and he was extending the ceasefire until Iran submitted a new proposal, “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.”
Comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh regarding independent monetary policy contribute to the USD’s upside. Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure US senators mulling his confirmation to lead the Fed that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the Middle East has caused oil price spikes that threaten to push inflation toward 6%. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 77% probability of an RBA rate hike next month as Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a commitment to anchoring inflation.
Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from Australia and the US, which are due on Thursday.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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