Forex News
- US private employers added an average of 15K jobs per week in mid July.
- Job gains lose further momentum, adding to the previous week’s decline.
Private-sector hiring in the US has further cooled in mid-July. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 15K jobs per week in the four weeks ending July 11.
That marks another pullback from the prior reading (16.25K), showing an extra impasse in hiring.
Market reaction
The Greenback creeps higher, extending its multi-day recovery and prompting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to trade closer to its yearly peaks well past the 101.00 hurdle.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- WTI Oil remains depressed near $80 amid hopes of a new round of talks between the US and Iran.
- Analysts from major commercial banks warn that the market might have overreacted to a fragile truce.
- Some analysts affirm that a sustained decline in Oil prices would require free traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude Oil prices hold at one-week lows on Tuesday, after having depreciated more than 12% from last week's highs. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel remains pinned near the $80 level at the time of writing as investors cling to hopes that the fragile truce in the Middle East will lead to a new round of peace talks. Market analysts, however, warn about the risks of overenthusiasm.
Commodity experts at ING observe that “the oil market continues to sell off heavily,” as US President Donald Trump signals that talks are under way with a “good chance” of a deal. However, they warn that Trump also said that “strikes would resume in the event a deal fails to materialise.”
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should resume to sustain lower Crude prices
ING analysts add that for this move to be sustained, "we will need to see a recovery in flows through the strait," reminding that “one would expect that the market will need to continue to price in a large risk premium, given that recent events have demonstrated how quickly a deal can unravel.”
Societe Generale strikes a similarly cautious tone, arguing that “a return to pre-war and early July levels is a big ask without fully-fledged commitment to peace and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” The bank’s commodity analysts estimate that “every month without a lasting resolution adds at least $10/bbl to Brent prices,” while also highlighting that President Trump “warned strikes on Iran would resume if a new ceasefire deal is not reached.”
Past experiences suggest that tensions can re-escalate fast
In the same line, Rabobank points out that while “energy prices have fallen by around $10/bbl from last week,” risks of “a full-scale re-escalation and persistent disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, could fuel inflationary pressures in the US.”
Rabobank also stresses that weekend announcements that Trump was “pausing” strikes on Iran “doesn’t mean that Iran has paused strikes against its neighbors,” keeping the geopolitical backdrop fragile.
From a currency perspective, MUFG notes that “the decline in Oil prices yesterday has provided a breather for several Asian currencies, " yet shares concerns about "how quickly Middle East tensions can escalate.”
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reports of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) planning to keep rates unchanged until early 2028, if accurate, clash with still-ambitious market expectations for hikes by 2027. Combined with fresh US tariffs on Switzerland at a time when Swiss exports remain weak, this leaves the Swiss Franc under short-term pressure and delays prospects for a meaningful recovery.
SNB leak and US tariffs weigh
"Rather unusual news emerged yesterday: sources reportedly stated that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is assuming internally that interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2027 and that a shift in interest rate policy will not be considered until early 2028."
"As we have argued on several occasions, the SNB would be ill-advised to hike the key interest rate this year."
"This means there is considerable potential for disappointment if the base rate of 0% is maintained until the end of next year, although it is likely to be some time before this potential materialises."
"As Swiss exports to the US have not yet recovered from last year's slump, this is putting pressure on the franc in the short term."
"For the time being, therefore, the franc continues to face difficulties."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The British Pound declines further against the US Dollar amid uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy announcement.
- Both the Fed and the BoE are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
- US President Trump calls for interest rate cuts from the Fed.
The British Pound (GBP) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) to near 1.3277 during the European trading session on Tuesday, the lowest level seen in over three weeks. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar rises further, with investors turning cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.11% | -0.12% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.15% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.23% | 0.24% | -0.01% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.17% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.49% | -0.23% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.20% | 0.23% | -0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.17% | 0.32% | 0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback's value against six major currencies, posts a fresh monthly high at 101.64.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 62% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in the policy announcement on Wednesday. Investors will closely track the policy announcement and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference to know whether the central bank’s decision will lean towards United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic agenda.
On Monday, US President Trump urged Fed Chair Warsh to lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends.
On the Pound Sterling front, investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The BoE is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with a 7-2 majority. The major focus of financial markets will be on commentary on inflation and the economic outlook.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 29, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.9% q/q in Q2, matching consensus and up from 0.8% in Q1. This would lift annual core inflation to 3.7%, just below the RBA’s 3.8% projection. They also see headline CPI at 4.2% y/y in June, with higher rents and dwelling costs posing upside risks.
Core CPI forecast supports RBA debate
"We forecast RBA's preferred core CPI measure to rise by 0.9% q/q (consensus: 0.9%, Q1: 0.8%) in Q2, in line with consensus."
"This lifts the annual rate to 3.7%, which is slightly lower than the RBA forecast of 3.8% in its May Statement of Monetary Policy."
"We also forecast the June headline CPI to print at 4.2% y/y (consensus: 4.0%)."
"Higher rents and new dwelling purchase costs pose upside risks to our forecast and a hot CPI trimmed mean will ignite debate around another hike in the near-term as the labor market remains resilient."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD hits fresh monthly lows below 1.1360, drifting closer to 13-month lows at 1.1324.
- A mild risk appetite amid lower Oil prices has failed to support the Euro.
- The US Dollar rallies to fresh highs amid hopes of a surprise Fed rate hike on Thursday.
The Euro (EUR) is failing to draw any significant support from the truce in the Middle East and the lower Oil prices and keeps heading south against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. EUR/USD bears are testing fresh one-month lows below 1.1360, drawing near the year-to-date low of 1.1324.
Market optimism about a negotiated end of the US-Iran conflict and the 12% decline in Brent Oil prices have triggered a mild appetite for risk during the European session, with European stock markets showing marginal gains following a negative session in Asia.
Risk appetite, however, has not translated into a weaker US Dollar this time, as traders cling to hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver a surprise rate hike later this week. Futures markets are pricing a 35% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, up from 25% a week ago, according to data by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, underpinning support for the US Dollar, which has reached fresh monthly highs against a basket of currencies.
Technical Analysis: Below 1.1324, the next target is the 1.1245 area
EUR/USD trades at 1.1362, holding a mild bearish trend, after being rejected at the 1.1420 area on Monday, with price action approaching year-to-date lows. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling lower from the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has entered negative levels although it remains near zero. Momentum is flat to slightly bearish, rather than impulsively directional so far.
If the pair confirms below the bottom of the monthly channel at 1.1360, bears are likely to be tempted by the 2026 trading floor of 1.1324. Below here, the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210, emerges as the next target.
On the topside, Monday's high, at 1.1420, and the top of the monthly range at 1.1480 are the key levels to breach to ease bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) rate curves have repriced sharply, with more tightening now expected in Czech Republic and Poland and further easing in Hungary. He still sees mispricing versus Taborsky forecasts and expects selected CEE currencies, notably the Polish Zloty (PLN) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), to strengthen, targeting EUR/PLN below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358, while seeing EUR/CZK moving above 24.200.
Zloty and Forint seen outperforming peers
"The region saw a sharp recovery in rates yesterday, although this did not fully carry through to FX. Implied rate paths moved meaningfully, now pricing around 60bp of tightening in the Czech Republic and 40bp in Poland, alongside 50bp of easing in Hungary over an 18-month horizon. In the past two sessions alone, curves have shifted by roughly 15-30bp across the region."
"We still see material mispricing versus our forecasts, but market pricing is moving back into a plausible scenario range. We expect this normalisation to continue this week unless the US-Iran conflict re-escalates and oil prices rise further."
"Rates and FX have diverged sharply over the past two weeks. The rates rally and the reduced rate-hike premium are not supportive for FX, but given the current gaps and the recent lag in FX versus rates, we still see room for selected currencies to strengthen."
"We therefore continue to expect gains in the zloty and forint despite narrower rate differentials, with EUR/PLN moving below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358. By contrast, EUR/CZK does not benefit from the same dynamic and has closely tracked rates; we instead see scope for a move above 24.200. We also expect more dovish Czech National Bank comments this week, which could further support EUR/CZK upside."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
