Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 30:
Markets cling to a cautious stance early Monday as investors assess the latest developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Later in the European session, regional and national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be watched closely. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.24% | 1.28% | 2.01% | 1.42% | 1.39% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.16% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 1.71% | 1.14% | 1.11% | |
| GBP | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.23% | 0.84% | 1.57% | 0.98% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 1.01% | 1.76% | 1.15% | 1.05% | |
| CAD | -1.28% | -1.00% | -0.84% | -1.01% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -2.01% | -1.71% | -1.57% | -1.76% | -0.74% | -0.57% | -0.68% | |
| NZD | -1.42% | -1.14% | -0.98% | -1.15% | -0.14% | 0.57% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | -1.39% | -1.11% | -0.88% | -1.05% | -0.10% | 0.68% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, Houthis, entered the month-old war in the Middle East on Saturday, claiming two missile launches at Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli military continued carrying out extensive strikes over the weekend, on what it called targets belonging to the Iranian regime across Tehran. Additionally, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they will be expanding operations in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets.
In an interview with the Financial Times, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they could "take the oil in Iran" and noted that discussions with Tehran were going "extremely well." Trump added that a deal could be made fairly quickly.
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades marginally higher on the day, above $99, and US stock index cling to small gains after Wall Street's main indexes suffered heavy losses on Friday. After rising nearly 0.7% in the previous week, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in a consolidation phase above 100.00 in the European morning on Monday.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said during Asian trading hours on Monday that changes in the foreign exchange (FX) market are key factors that have a huge impact on Japan's economy, and prices. He added that the BoJ will guide the policy by assessing how FX moves could affect the likelihood of achieving the growth, price forecasts as well as risks. After climbing to the 160.50 region earlier in the day, USD/JPY reversed its direction and was last seen trading at around 159.70, losing 0.4% on the day. In the Asian session on Tuesday, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be featured in the Japanese economic calendar.
EUR/USD fell below 1.1500 at the weekly opening but managed to stage a rebound. Later in the session, the European Commission will publish business and consumer sentiment data for March.
After rising more than 2.5% on Friday, Gold holds its ground early Monday and trades in positive territory above $4,500.
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold and trades near 1.3250 in the European morning after closing the previous four trading days in negative territory.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Deutsche Bank analysts note the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened modestly against the US Dollar (USD) as officials flag speculative FX activity and warn that decisive action may soon be necessary. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions contained hawkish elements, including discussion of potentially accelerating rate hikes if Middle East tensions persist, supporting a less negative stance on the Yen.
Stronger JPY on hawkish BoJ signals
"Away from the Middle East, we’ve also seen the Japanese yen strengthen overnight, moving up +0.34% against the US Dollar to 159.76."
"That comes after Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said that they were hearing about speculative activity picking up in FX markets, and that if it continued, “we believe decisive action may soon be necessary.”"
"In addition, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from their recent meeting had hawkish elements."
"For example, there was even a comment they should “pay attention to whether it is necessary to accelerate the pace of policy interest rate hikes beyond previous projections and shift toward neutral or restrictive financial conditions, if tension over the situation in the Middle East were to become prolonged.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD recovers early losses and turns flat around 0.5745 as investors’ risk appetite improves.
- Middle East conflicts have intensified following the Iran-backed Houthis' entry.
- The US Dollar ticks down ahead of Fed Powell’s speech.
The NZD/USD pair claws back its early losses and flattens around 0.5745 during the early European trading session on Monday. The Kiwi pair bounces back from its over two-month low of 0.5725, the lowest low seen in over two months. The pair attracts bids as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounces back due to the revival of the risk-on impulse.
During the European trading session, S&P 500 futures have recovered their opening losses and turned slightly positive around 6,375.
Investors’ risk appetite has improved despite the war in the Middle East intensifying. Conflicts between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran have escalated due to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) claiming that the Pentagon is preparing to send 10,000 additional military troops for the ground invasion on Iran.
In addition to potential US ground military action, the entry of Iran-backed Houthis in the ongoing war has also widened geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 14:30 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks down to near 100.10.
NZD/USD technical analysis
In the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair maintains a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is bending lower and tracking the recent sequence of lower highs.
Momentum confirms selling pressure, with the RSI slipping toward the mid-30s and extending its decline from neutral territory, indicating sellers keep control while avoiding oversold conditions for now.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 0.5840, and a daily close above this area would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open 0.5920 as the next upside level. On the downside, minor support sits at 0.5700, followed by a lower band around 0.5650, where a break would extend the current downtrend and expose the 0.5600 area as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed's Chair Powell speech
Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.
Read more.Next release: Mon Mar 30, 2026 14:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
- USD/CHF appreciated after the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator fell to 96.1 in February.
- SNB may intervene in FX markets to curb excessive CHF strength and maintain price stability.
- The US Dollar may strengthen on rising safe-haven demand amid fears of a potential US ground invasion in Iran.
USD/CHF continues its winning streak for the fifth successive day, trading around a two-month high of 0.8000 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair recovers its daily losses following the release of the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator, which fell to 96.1 in February, from 103.8 (revised from 104.2) in January.
However, the downside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may face challenges as Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chair Martin Schlegel expressed the SNB’s readiness to intervene in FX markets to curb sharp and excessive currency swings and safeguard price stability. Additionally, SNB board member Petra Tschudin also emphasized the central bank’s increased willingness to step in and limit further strength in the Swiss Franc.
Moreover, the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground against the major peers amid increased safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to fears of a potential United States (US) ground invasion in Iran.
A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report suggested last week that the US Pentagon could deploy 10,000 additional troops to Iran. In response, Ebrahim Zolfaqari issued a stark warning on Iranian state TV, stating that “US troops will be good food for sharks of the Persian Gulf.”
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the regional conflict and warning that attacks will continue until operations against Iran and its allies cease. The group also threatens Red Sea shipping routes and key Saudi energy infrastructure, heightening risks to global supply.
US economic data releases this week, including various labor market-linked indicators, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), as well as the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Swiss economy FAQs
Switzerland is the ninth-largest economy measured by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the European continent. Measured by GDP per capita – a broad measure of average living standards –, the country ranks among the highest in the world, meaning that it is one the richest countries globally. Switzerland tends to be in the top spots in global rankings about living standards, development indexes, competitiveness or innovation.
Switzerland is an open, free-market economy mainly based on the services sector. The Swiss economy has a strong export sector, and the neighboring European Union (EU) is its main trading partner. Switzerland is a leading exporter of watches and clocks, and hosts leading firms in the food, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries. The country is considered to be an international tax haven, with significantly low corporate and income tax rates compared with its European neighbors.
As a high-income country, the growth rate of the Swiss economy has diminished over the last decades. Still, its political and economic stability, its high education levels, top-tier firms in several industries and its tax-haven status have made it a preferred destination for foreign investment. This has generally benefited the Swiss Franc (CHF), which has historically kept relatively strong against its main currency peers. Generally, a good performance of the Swiss economy – based on high growth, low unemployment and stable prices – tends to appreciate CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
Switzerland isn’t a commodity exporter, so in general commodity prices aren’t a key driver of the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, there is a slight correlation with both Gold and Oil prices. With Gold, CHF’s status as a safe-haven and the fact that the currency used to be backed by the precious metal means that both assets tend to move in the same direction. With Oil, a paper released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggests that the rise in Oil prices could negatively influence CHF valuation, as Switzerland is a net importer of fuel.
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem argue that Brent now faces a higher-for-longer regime as the US–Israel–Iran confrontation delays the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz into April. They expect a massive supply deficit, slow recovery in Gulf output and shipping, and only gradual inventory rebuilding, lifting their 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl.
Brent faces structurally tighter market
"The $150/bbl oil paradigm: prices now face a higher-for-longer baseline. The deepening US–Israel–Iran confrontation removes any realistic chance of near‑term de‑escalation, pushing our assumed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from March into well into April. In early trading today, Brent surged to over $116/bbl, as President Trump said, “he wants to take the oil in Iran”. With just under 15 mb/d of Gulf supply offline, rising refinery shutdowns and growing infrastructure risks, we expect Brent to average ~$125/bbl in April with credible spikes towards $150/bbl."
"Our central scenario now embeds a two‑month Hormuz closure with lasting supply damage. We assume OPEC losses of 15 mb/d in March and losses and adjustments in April result in an eventual deficit of 8mb/d by mid/late month. We assume GCC output down by up to 3 mb/d through year‑end. Iran loses 2 mb/d of export capacity for the rest of 2026. Additional OPEC supply returns gradually from May, alongside G7 SPR flows and resumed Chinese buying. Prices spike in April (~$125/bbl average with upside to $150/bbl) before easing to around $80/bbl by December."
"Rapid inventory draws mean stocks only return to five‑year averages by year‑end, lifting our 2026 year‑end Brent forecast from $65/bbl to $80/bbl. In short, the market is structurally tighter, more fragile, and highly sensitive to further shocks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here are key points from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) review on “The Concept and Measurement of Underlying Inflation” by the Monetary Affairs Department
Underlying inflation must be judged comprehensively by examining a wide range of information on economic activity and prices from multiple perspectives.
If recent rises in food prices were to persist, they could exert a sustained upward impact on overall consumer prices.
Composite indicators on medium- to long-term inflation expectations show a gradual increase toward 2%.
Gap has been on an improving trend, labor market conditions remain extremely tight, and wages are rising moderately.
Firms continue to pass on higher wages, mechanism in which wages and prices rise moderately in tandem has been taking hold.
Underlying inflation rate is rising moderately toward 2%.
From the perspective of the sustainable achievement of 2% target, it will also be necessary to monitor whether underlying inflation becomes firmly anchored at around 2%.
Increases in crude oil prices can affect underlying inflation in both upward and downward directions.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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