Forex News
- Gold is giving away Thursday's gains on Friday but remains trading within a narrow range around $4,100.
- Precious metals struggled this week as the rebound in Oil prices revived expectations of interest rate hikes.
- XAU/USD remains capped below the trendline resistance from early March highs.
Gold (XAU/USD) nurses minor losses with price action contained within Thursday’s trading range, around the $4,100 level, set for 1.6% weekly depreciation. Precious metals struggled this week as the resumption of hostilities in Iran boosted Oil prices, pressuring central banks to hike interest rates.
Markets are looking for direction on Friday amid a tense calm, and rumours that mediators are working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Axios cited a US official affirming on Friday that the US is still committed to finding a resolution and that technical talks to reach a nuclear deal continue.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, has bounced from levels near three-week highs amid a cautious market mood, and is drawing closer to the 101.00 level, which keeps Gold upside attempts limited.
Technical Analysis: Hints of a reversal within the broader bearish trend
XAU/USD trades at $4,110, holding just below the trendline resistance from early March lows, although the higher low seen earlier this week suggests that bears might be losing momentum. Indicators in the daily chart are also showing a weakening bearish momentum, yet with no clear sign of a trend shift on the horizon so far.
The Relative Strength Index (14) has picked up towards neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive with its latest reading at 19.09, hinting at improving momentum.
Price action, however, needs to overcome structural resistance first at the mentioned trendline, now around $4,175, and then at the July 6 just above $4,200 and June 17 highs in the area of $4,380. On the downside, the precious metal has a cluster of supports between Thursday's low in the $4,020 area and the late October 2025 lows near $3,885.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The Indian Rupee recovers further against the US Dollar as the latter underperforms.
- Signs of US-Iran war de-escalation have diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
- FIIs’ buying streak in the Indian stock market comes to an end.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gives back its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) in India's afternoon trading hours on Friday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.42 as the US Dollar bounces back amid fears that the restart of the war in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran will be prolonged.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.86 after recovering from its three-week low of 100.60.
US-Iran war will likely be prolonged
Late Thursday, the Iranian state media confirmed that US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran. This week, several media outlets have confirmed that the US has attacked Iranian power and water infrastructure. This came even as a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran are still going on, according to The Times of Israel.
The aggression between the US and Iran restarted after President Donald Trump declared that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Tehran is over.
Fears of energy supply disruption remain elevated amid US-Iran tensions
The oil price extends its correction on Friday even as fears of prolonged US-Iran aggression remain intact. In the European trade, the WTI Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 holds onto Thursday's losses near Rs. 6,845.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.
FIIs turned net sellers on Thursday
After remaining net buyers in all trading days of July 3-8, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned out to be net sellers on Thursday, offloading their stake worth Rs. 532.86 crore in the Indian stock market.
Moving forward, investors should be prepared for mixed sentiment from overseas investors toward the Indian equity market, as the earnings season of the first quarter of the financial year (FY) 2026-27 has kicked off, with quarterly results from India’s tech giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on Thursday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR needs to break above 96.00 for fresh upside
USD/INR trades almost flat at around 95.45. The pair holds a mild bullish bias as it trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.11.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying inside the 40.00-60.00 zone for a long period, with signs of fatigue after a descending triangle breakout, suggests a subdued trend ahead.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 95.11, ahead of the former descending trendline break around 94.69, followed by the May 7 low at 94.03. On the topside, a more meaningful resistance reference remains the original descending trendline anchor near 97.02, and only a sustained break above that area would open the door to a stronger bullish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- EUR/JPY falls around 0.35% on Friday, trading near 184.95 at the time of writing.
- Slowing inflation in Germany and France reinforces expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged in July.
- The Japanese Yen gains support after the Japanese government unveiled plans to encourage pension funds to increase domestic investments.
EUR/JPY trades around 184.95 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from renewed demand following the government's announcement of a potential shift toward greater domestic investment. At the same time, confirmed signs of easing inflation in Germany and France continue to weigh on the Euro (EUR).
Final data released on Friday confirmed that inflationary pressures continue to moderate across the Eurozone. In Germany, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% YoY in June, down from 2.7% in May, while monthly prices declined by 0.2%. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slowed to 2% YoY from 2.8% in May, with prices falling 0.3% on a monthly basis.
These figures reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting as policymakers assess developments in energy markets and their impact on the Eurozone economy. However, the immediate impact on the Euro remains limited, as markets had already largely priced in this scenario.
On the Japanese side, the Japanese Yen extends gains against most major peers after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the government intends to encourage households and the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to significantly increase their investments in Japanese financial assets. She also stated that the government expects interest rates to rise gradually and wants to accelerate discussions on expanding Japanese government bond products targeted at households.
These developments have boosted expectations of a gradual repatriation of capital toward domestic assets while reinforcing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to normalize monetary policy. The announcement also adds to persistent intervention risks in the foreign exchange market, encouraging an aggressive short-covering move in the Japanese Yen.
According to MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny, the announcement came as a surprise and explains the sharp reaction across the Japanese Yen, government bonds and equities. However, he believes these policy changes will take time to produce meaningful effects, adding that confidence in the Bank of Japan remains essential before institutional investors significantly reduce overseas investments in favor of Japanese government bonds.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.36% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.28% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.39% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.35% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.26% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.37% | -0.11% | -0.30% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.08% | -0.27% | 0.11% | -0.20% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.30% | 0.26% | -0.06% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that Gold has rebounded as Oil prices eased, reducing inflation and Fed tightening concerns, while a softer US Dollar also supported the move. However, ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, suggesting the recovery is more relief-driven than a decisive return of investor demand. Near term, Gold could trade with a better tone if Oil and yields stay contained.
Relief-driven recovery in Gold
"Gold. Tentative stabilisation on oil relief. Gold rebounded as oil prices eased from their recent spike, taking some pressure off inflation expectations, yields and Fed tightening concerns. A softer USD also helped the recovery, after the recent selloff across the precious metals complex."
"But ETF flows have yet to confirm a broader investor rebuild. Bloomberg data show total known gold ETF holdings remain lower month-to-date, even though holdings have stabilised slightly in recent days. This suggests the move is still mainly about relief from oil and yield pressures, rather than a decisive return of investor demand."
"That said, the structural support remains intact. Central banks continue to add to gold reserves, with Poland standing out as a notable buyer this year. Governor Glapinski said that Poland has bought 82t of gold this year and now holds 632.4t."
"The target is to accumulate 700t of gold. Near term, gold can trade with a better tone if oil stays contained and yields remain capped, but stronger follow-through likely requires softer US data or a further easing in Fed tightening concerns. Gold last seen at 4125 levels."
"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside for now. Resistance at 4140 (21 DMA), 4200 levels. Support at 4021 (week’s low), 3943 (year’s low)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD eases to 0.5775 after hitting three-week highs at 0.5794.
- The Kiwi is on track for a 1% weekly appreciation after the RBNZ's hawkish hike.
- The US Dollar has trimmed some losses as markets look for clarity on the US-Iran conflict's developments.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is giving away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading at the 0.5775 area after hitting fresh three-week highs at 0.5794 earlier on the day. The pair, however, is on track for a 1% weekly appreciation, boosted by a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) earlier this week.
The US Dollar trims losses in a calm Friday European trading session as investors ponder rumours about diplomatic efforts by mediators to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table. Rival countries halted their hostilities on Friday after a series of tit-for-tat attacks earlier on the week, although the key Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed, which is keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued.
Earlier on the week, the RBNZ hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5% and hinted at further monetary tightening in the coming months, to bring inflation to the 2% target. Investors are now pricing two further rate hikes this year, which has boosted the New Zealand Dollar across the board this week.
In the US, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy meeting failed to support the US Dollar. The Fed maintained its commitment to bring inflation to target, but rate projections showed a split committee, which left investors pondering the timing for the next interest rate hike.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved. He highlights that fading geopolitical risk keeps focus on front-end rate differentials, which have moved against the Dollar in some cases. ING sees upside risks for the Dollar but expects only limited DXY reaction if Oil stays contained.
Dollar sidelined by rate focus
"Markets are taking a decisively optimistic stance on fresh US-Iran tensions. Multiple reports indicate traffic in Hormuz has dropped to almost zero in the past couple of days, and we have seen effectively no intent of de-escalation from either party."
"The 2-year USD swap rate has erased roughly half of the 10bp jump after the re-escalation – 35bp of tightening is currently priced in for December."
"The dollar is seeing no benefits from this situation. Fading geopolitical risk means continuous focus on rate differentials, which have moved against USD in some instances (e.g., vs the euro) by revamping hawkish expectations abroad."
"Incidentally, the recovery in risk sentiment yesterday prompted a decent rebound in high-yielding EM FX after an unwinding of carry trades earlier this week."
"The risks here are obvious. Investors may be underestimating the chance of a new Strait of Hormuz closure and non-linear oil spikes. The balance of risks remains on the upside for the dollar, although only a modest pick-up in oil prices and markets rapidly turning to headline fatigue would probably leave DXY pretty much where it is now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.47 per troy ounce, down 0.86% from the $59.98 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.34% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 59.47 |
1 Gram | 1.91 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.90 on Friday, up from 68.75 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Societe Generale strategists highlight that USD/CAD is tactically expensive versus the 2-year spread and has recently met resistance near 1.4250 before retracing toward 1.4130. They view this area as potential support but warn that a break lower could trigger a deeper pullback toward 1.4075 and the 50-DMA near 1.3950, framing near-term downside risks for the pair.
Key support eyed near 1.4130
"USD/CAD encountered interim resistance around 1.4250 last month and has since retraced toward the upper boundary of its previous broad consolidation range near 1.4130, which could serve as a potential support."
"It will be interesting to observe whether the pair can hold above this support."
"Should a break below 1.4130 materialize, USD/CAD may embark on a deeper pullback."
"The next objectives could be located at projections of 1.4075, followed by the 50-DMA near 1.3950."
"USD/CAD expensive based on 2y spread"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
According to sources, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may revise up the fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in the quarterly report due in July. The BoJ is expected to report that it will keep focus on the risk of inflation overshooting the central bank’s target, Reuters reports.
The sources also stated that the BoJ will keep interest rates unchanged in July but maintain policy guidance pledging to continue raising rates.
Market reaction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has not shown an immediate reaction to the headlines mentioned above. At press time, the USD/JPY is down 0.45% to near 169.70 even after recovering some of its early losses.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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