Forex News
- Silver bounces back as the US Dollar drops; however, its outlook remains uncertain.
- US President Trump pauses military strikes on Iran's power plants for five days.
- Iran dismisses direct talks with the US on de-escalating Middle East war.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and turns positive to near $69.70 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal bounces back strongly as the US Dollar (USD) surrenders its early gains.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against six major currencies, trades flat around 99.20 after giving back early gains.
Technically, a falling US Dollar makes the Silver price an attractive risk-reward bet for investors.
However, the outlook of the Silver price remains uncertain as Iran denies involvement in talks with the United States (US) regarding the resolution of the war in the Middle East, a scenario that might keep the US Dollar on the frontfoot.
Theoretically, signs of geopolitical tensions remaining heightened tend to increase the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, such as the Silver. However, precious metals are underperforming as surging energy prices due to Middle East conflicts have weakened speculation that major global central banks will cut interest rates this year. A hawkish stance or an extended pause on interest rates by global central banks bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Iranian officials downplayed the prospect of negotiations with the US after Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said no talks have been held with it. Also, Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions to end the war remain unchanged, adding that Tehran has not responded to messages relayed by other countries regarding US requests for talks, according to IRNA.
Before Iran's clarification on news claiming its involvement in negotiations with the US, President Donald Trump announced through a post on Truth.Social that he has instructed the Department of War to pause scheduled military strikes on Iran'ss power plants for five days, as Washington had very good and productive conversations with Tehran regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $69.70 during the press time. However, the near-term bias is bearish as spot holds well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now tracks near $78.67 and caps recovery attempts. Price has broken a sequence of higher daily closes and is extending away from the 20-day EMA, reinforcing downside pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.33 sits near oversold territory and confirms persistent selling momentum rather than exhaustion.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA around $78.67, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. Above there, the $83.00 region, tied to recent consolidation before the latest breakdown, marks a secondary barrier. On the downside, major support sits near Monday's low at $61.01, with a break exposing the next bearish target toward the October 16 high of $54.86.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold recovers early lost ground, though the upside seems capped amid hawkish major central banks.
- The Iran war continues to fuel inflation fears, bolstering bets that central banks will consider raising rates.
- A fresh leg up in US bond yields and reviving USD demand could contribute to capping the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers its intraday losses and climbs back above the $4,400 mark, closer to the daily high during the early part of the European session on Tuesday. Any meaningful upside, however, still seems elusive on the back of hawkish central banks, which tends to dent demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Furthermore, a firmer US Dollar (USD) should contribute to capping the upside for the commodity.
Iran denied that it had held talks with the US to end the war, contradicting US President Donald Trump's remarks on Monday that a deal could be reached soon. Moreover, Mohsen Rezaei, the senior military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the war will continue until Iran receives full compensation for the damage it has sustained. Adding to this, energy infrastructure in Iran has reportedly come under renewed pressure, which, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, assists Crude Oil prices to regain positive traction. This, in turn, bolsters bets that central banks around the world will once again consider raising interest rates to curb renewed inflationary pressures and should act as a headwind for the Gold price.
Meanwhile, traders have nearly fully priced out the possibility of any further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and are rapidly increasing bets for a hike by the end of this year. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which assists the USD to regain positive traction and contributes to driving flows away from the precious metal. That said, fading hopes for a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East keep a lid on the overnight market optimism. This, in turn, is seen offering some support to the safe-haven Gold and holding back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets. As the US-Iran conflict drags on further, market participants now look forward to the release of the global flash PMIs to grab short-term opportunities.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold bears might now await break below $4,300 before placing fresh bets
From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown below the 100-day SMA was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bears. The subsequent slump, however, found decent support near the 200-day SMA, around the $4,100 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) remains below its signal line in negative territory with an expanding downside histogram, reinforcing strengthening selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 25.82 sits in oversold territory, which highlights downside dominance but also warns that the current bearish leg is becoming stretched.
In the meantime, the current low around $4,305 is the first support to watch, and a decisive close below this level would extend the downtrend back toward the $4,100, nearer to the 200-day SMA, where medium-term dip buyers could attempt to stabilize the metal.
On the upside, immediate resistance emerges near $4,650, where a recent consolidation high aligns ahead of the falling short-term trajectory and guards the $4,820 area, with the 100-day SMA higher around $4,610 acting as an intermediate dynamic cap. A break above these layers would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way toward $5,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight sharp two-way moves in Brent Oil as conflicting signals emerge on potential US–Iran talks. Brent dropped back below $100 to ease inflation fears before rebounding above $103 as Iran denied negotiations and regional escalation risks resurfaced. The authors stress that oil remains below earlier highs but sentiment is fragile.
Oil whipsaws on shifting war narrative
"The trajectory of this newsflow was taken positively, with the prospect of talks leading to a huge slump in oil prices. So Brent crude fell from $113/bbl right before Trump’s post to close at $99.94/bbl. It was a similar story for WTI as well, which fell from around $99/bbl immediately beforehand to just $88.13/bbl by the close."
"For markets, the fact that the two sides might be talking was taken as a huge positive, because it opened up the tail outcome of a much quicker end to the conflict than previously supposed. So by the close, Brent crude oil prices (-10.92%) were back down to $99.94/bbl, which significantly eased fears about the scale of any inflation shock."
"Obviously much now depends on the progress of any talks, and whether the more optimistic rhetoric is followed up by concrete action. Indeed, Iranian officials have repeatedly denied that talks with the US were even happening, which had contributed to markets reversing some of the initial risk-on reaction late yesterday and overnight. Brent crude has edged back up nearly 4 percent to $103.88/bbl this morning, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.69%) and STOXX 50 (-0.84%) notably lower."
"We're still comfortably below the highs from yesterday morning and that pullback in oil prices was treated with a huge sigh of relief, as it significantly eased fears about a stagflationary shock, and also pushed back against the prospect of imminent rate hikes."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Japanese Yen recovers almost its entire early losses against the US Dollar as the risk-on mood strengthens.
- Improving market sentiment has weighed on the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand.
- BoJ’s Ueda expresses confidence that inflation will continue to accelerate moderately.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD), turning flat around 158.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair falls back as the US Dollar surrenders its early gains amid improving investors’ risk appetite.
In the European trade, S&P 500 futures have recovered their entire early losses and have turned positive around 6,600.00, indicating an increase in demand for riskier assets. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines from the intraday high of 99.45 and flattens around 99.15.
Growing expectations among market participants that the war in the Middle East will not escalate further, following the announcement by United States (US) President Trump that he has instructed the Department of War to pause military attacks on Iran’s power plants for five days, has underpinned the risk-on stance.
Although Iran has dismissed reports claiming that it had direct talks with the US regarding the de-escalation of the conflicts, positive comments from US President Trump have triggered hope of a war resolution.
On the domestic front, remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expressing confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to accelerate moderately have supported the Japanese Yen. “Expect underlying inflation to accelerate moderately,” Ueda said earlier in the day, adding, “Tight labour market, firms active wage, price-setting behaviour will maintain a cycle in which wages and prices rise in tandem.”
Meanwhile, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) ex. Fresh Food for February has come in lower at 1.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) than estimates of 1.7% and the previous reading of 2%.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 24:
Markets adopt a cautious stance early Tuesday following the volatile action seen at the beginning of the week. The economic calendar will feature preliminary March Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US on Tuesday.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | -0.85% | -0.52% | 0.14% | 0.12% | -0.50% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | -0.27% | 0.11% | 0.73% | 0.69% | 0.08% | 0.40% | |
| GBP | 0.85% | 0.27% | 0.32% | 1.00% | 0.99% | 0.35% | 0.60% | |
| JPY | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.32% | 0.62% | 0.62% | -0.03% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.73% | -1.00% | -0.62% | 0.00% | -0.64% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.69% | -0.99% | -0.62% | -0.00% | -0.63% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.50% | -0.08% | -0.35% | 0.03% | 0.64% | 0.63% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | -0.40% | -0.60% | -0.22% | 0.33% | 0.38% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that they will postpone any military strikes against Iran's power plants following "good and productive conversations." With the immediate reaction to this development, risk flows started to dominate the action in financial markets. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure, US stock index futures turned north and Oil prices declined sharply. Later in the American session, Iran's foreign ministry said that there was "no dialogue" between Tehran and Washington. Additionally, the White House noted that the situation is “fluid" and added that "speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final until they are formally announced by the White House."
In the European morning on Tuesday, US stock index futures trade in negative territory, while the USD Index clings to small gains above 99.00. After losing more than 9% on Monday, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recovers toward $90, rising about 1.5% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) slumped to a fresh 2026-low near $4,100 early Monday but erased a large portion of its daily losses before ending the day near $4,400. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase in the European session and fluctuates in a narrow channel slightly above $4,400.
The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 47 in March's flash reading from 52.4 in February, highlighting a contraction in private sector's business activity. AUD/USD stays under modest bearish pressure early Tuesday and trades slightly below 0.7000.
USD/JPY moves sideways near 158.50 after closing in the red on Monday. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.4 in March from 53 and the Services PMI edged lower to 52.8 from 53.8. Other data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% on a yearly basis in February, following the 1.5% increase recorded in January.
EUR/USD benefited from the broad USD weakness on Monday and touched its highest level in over 10 days at 1.1640. The pair corrects lower early Tuesday but manages to hold above 1.1600.
GBP/USD enters a consolidation phase early Tuesday and trades above 1.3400 after rising more than 0.6% on Monday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- AUD/JPY tests the immediate support at the lower ascending channel boundary around 110.60.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 50 signals balanced conditions after easing from prior overbought levels.
- The currency cross may find an initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 111.69.
AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 111.00 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential bearish reversal as the currency cross is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.
However, the near-term bias is neutral with a slight bullish tilt as price consolidates above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), preserving the broader uptrend structure despite the recent pullback from the 113.00 area. The nine-day EMA has flattened just above the spot, reflecting stalled upside momentum rather than a clear reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 signals balanced conditions after unwinding from overbought readings above 70 seen earlier this month, which aligns with a pause phase within an established advance rather than aggressive selling pressure.
The AUD/JPY cross may rebound toward the potential level of 111.50, followed by the nine-day EMA at 111.69. A break above the latter would improve the short-term price momentum and support the currency cross to approach the all-time high of 113.96, which was reached on March 11.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the lower ascending channel boundary around 110.60, followed by the 50-day EMA at 109.60. Further declines would weaken the medium-term momentum and expose the psychological support at the 108.00 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.01% | 0.24% | 0.08% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.06% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.15% | -0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.15% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.27% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao states that surging energy costs and a widening current account deficit are exerting immense pressure on the Indian Rupee (INR), pushing USD/INR toward new highs. Despite these stagflationary headwinds, Rao expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, opting instead to defend the currency through active FX interventions and targeted liquidity measures.
Bar for rate hikes is high
"USD/INR came within striking distance of 94.00 on Monday, closing at 93.95-93.98 (fresh low for INR) tracking a rise in oil prices. Rupee weakness reflects a cyclical adjustment in response to evolving global conditions, primarily a shift in underlying external sector dynamics."
"As a net importer of oil and other key energy commodities, the country faces the twin headwinds of a wider current account gap and weak capital inflows, in the face of high prices and delayed supplies. As costs adjust, incipient inflationary pressures are also likely to surface."
"While volatile portfolio inflows had weighed on the currency prior to the Middle East tensions, a surge in energy prices in wake of the recent conflict threatens to widen the current account gap via a wider import bill and slower remittance inflows, cumulatively leading to a second consecutive year (a first) of BOP deficit in FY26."
"The bar for rate hikes is high, in our view. In the context of this stagflationary shock and exogenous nature of the event risk, we expect the RBI to keep rates on hold in 2026, while addressing specific pockets of strain."
"Banking system liquidity returned to a modest deficit in midst of advance tax outflows and strong FX intervention. In a third such tranche this month, the RBI infused INR 793bn via an overnight VRR auction yesterday (vs notified INR 1trn) and announced plans for a 3-day auction on Tuesday worth INR1trn; more are likely if the defense against rupee weakness continues. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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