Forex News
According to the Iranian state media, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi said during the European trade on Friday that Tehran condemns moves by the United States (US) navy against two Iranian tankers as aggressive acts and violations of the truce, Reuters reported.
Additional comments
Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure.
Iranians never bow to pressure.
Our missile inventory and launcher capacity are not at 75% compared to Feb 28, the correct figure is 120%.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact of Iran Araghchi's comments on the global risk impluse.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
TD Securities strategists expects the April US Nonfarm Payrolls report to show a normalization in job gains, forecasting an 80k headline increase versus 65k consensus. They see healthcare leading sectoral gains and anticipate the unemployment rate (UE) holding at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are projected to remain modest at 0.2% month-on-month, or 3.7% year-on-year.
Moderate payroll gains and soft wages
"We expect headline payrolls to show a normalization in job gains at 80k, with 85k private and -5k government (cons: 65k)."
"The sectoral makeup will likely be similar to last year, with job gains largely supported by healthcare."
"We also look for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% in April, continuing its signal of labor market stabilization (cons: 4.3%)."
"The unrounded UE rate will likely edge higher."
"We expect AHE remained modest at 0.2% m/m (cons: 0.3%), translating to 3.7% y/y."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver climbs on Friday, supported by broad US Dollar weakness ahead of the US employment report.
- Markets remain cautious amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran despite the ceasefire remaining in place.
- Traders await the April US NFP report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its bullish momentum on Friday, trading around $80.85 at the time of writing, up 3.15% on the day. The white metal benefits from renewed weakness in the US Dollar (USD), while investors remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.
The US Dollar loses ground despite the latest exchange of attacks between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran accused Washington of targeting Oil vessels and civilian areas, while the US reported missile and drone attacks against its naval forces. However, US President Donald Trump attempted to reassure markets on Thursday, stating that the ceasefire agreement remains intact.
The softer USD environment is supporting demand for precious metals, including Silver, as a weaker Greenback makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive for international investors.
Market participants are now focused on the US April NFP report, scheduled for release later on Friday. Economists expect the US economy to have added 62K jobs in April, significantly below the previous 178K increase recorded in March, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%. Investors will also closely monitor wage growth figures, as the Average Hourly Earnings indicator is projected to rise by 3.8% YoY after 3.5% previously.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The Indian Rupee corrects after a three-day winning spree against the US Dollar.
- A sharp recovery in oil prices due to renewed US-Iran tensions weighs on the Indian Rupee.
- Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
The Indian Rupee (INR) fails to extend its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) and corrects sharply on Friday. The USD/INR pair bounces back to near 94.60 from the two-week low of 94.03 posted on Thursday.
The Indian currency faces backlash from a sharp recovery in oil prices, following renewed fears over the sustainability of the temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran after the exchange of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran uncertainty boosts oil price
At the time of writing, the WTI Oil price is down 1.6% to near $93, but holds its Thursday’s recovery move from $87.50, which came after Iran accused the US of violating ceasefire terms. Tehran condemned Washington for targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Hormuz. “The aggressive, terrorist, and pirate US military has violated the ceasefire,” a military spokesperson said, The Guardian reported.
In response, US President Donald Trump stated that the attack was a retaliatory measure from Washington’s navy destroyers and that the ceasefire is still intact. “It's just a love tap," Trump told ABC News when asked about the strikes, adding, “The ceasefire is going. It's in effect."
A sharp recovery in oil prices has renewed concerns for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
FIIs keep paring their stake in Indian stock market
There seems to be no relief for Indian stock markets from selling pressure by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) despite a broader risk rally. FIIs are dumping their stake in Indian equity markets as higher oil prices have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.
So far in March, FIIs have remained net sellers in three of four trading days and have pared their stake worth Rs. 6,961.75 crore.
Investors await US NFP data
The impact of a sharp recovery in the US Dollar, which came in the North American session on Thursday, has also offered support to USD/INR. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.10. The DXY recovered due to the revival of concerns over the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 74% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers from 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50 at the press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.2031. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure remains but with moderated momentum.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 94.20, where a break would expose a deeper correction towards 93.00. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit its all-time high of 95.53 posted on May 5.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Next release: Fri May 08, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.3%
Previous: 4.3%
Source:
- USD/CHF reverses Thursday's gains and approaches two-month lows at 0.7765.
- The US Dollar is losing ground ahead of the release of April's Nonfarm Payrolls data.
- USD bears are focusing on the 0.7750 support area.
The US Dollar (USD) resumes its broader bearish trend against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, reversing Thursday’s gains and reaching levels a few pips above the two-month lows of 0.7765, as the market shifts its focus to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later on Friday. In Switzerland, the weak SECO Consumer Climate figures have failed to dent CHF strength.
April’s NFP data is expected to show a significant slowdown in employment creation, although the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.3%. These figures will be scrutinized with interest for further insight into the US Federal Reserve’s next steps, as the divergences among the committee witnessed at last week’s monetary policy meeting have left investors wondering.
Technical Analysis: Bears eye the 0.7750 support area
USD/CHF keeps a bearish near-term bias with the pair unable to take a significant distance from two-month lows at 0.7765. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts hovers around 38, hinting at weak demand, and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading near the zero line only suggests shallow corrective potential rather than a sustained bullish reversal.
Bears are likely to be tested at the mentioned 0.7765 level (Thursday's low), although the main target is the March 10 low at 0.7748. A confirmation below here would bring the February 27 low, at the 0.7675 area, into focus.
Upside attempts have been capped at 0.7809 earlier on Friday, closing the path towards the weekly top near 0.7850. Further up, the April 13 and 29 highs near 0.7930 seem out of reach today.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.39% | -0.47% | -0.35% | |
| EUR | 0.38% | -0.08% | 0.22% | 0.22% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.22% | -0.32% | 0.02% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.22% | -0.31% | -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.31% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.26% | 0.28% | -0.03% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.47% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.30% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.35% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.19% | 0.20% | -0.06% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Australian Dollar jumps to near 0.7240 against the US Dollar ahead of the US NFP data.
- The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.
- US-Iran ceasefire continuation keeps broader risk rally upbeat.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.4% higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7240 during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair reflects strength as the US Dollar underperforms ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.40% | -0.47% | -0.33% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | -0.08% | 0.22% | 0.23% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.22% | -0.32% | 0.02% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.23% | -0.32% | -0.02% | -0.29% | -0.32% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.40% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.03% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.47% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.33% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.17% | 0.20% | -0.11% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.35% to near 97.90.
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.
The US NFP report is expected to show that employers hired 62K fresh workers, significantly lower than 178K in March. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown at a stronger pace of 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 3.5%.
Signs of strong job growth would weigh on bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the near term. On the contrary, soft numbers would boost them.
On the geopolitical front, the continuation of the ceasefire between the US and Iran is keeping the broader risk rally intact. S&P 500 futures are up 0.45% to near 7,370 in the European trade, indicating strong appetite for riskier assets.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri May 08, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 62K
Previous: 178K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention, estimated around JPY 10 trillion, has so far failed to deliver a sustained Yen rebound, with USD/JPY still stable. Weaker Japanese wage and inflation data risk reinforcing BoJ caution even as Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervenes. MUFG still expects a June BoJ rate hike, contingent on clearer US–Iran de-escalation.
Intervention impact hinges on BoJ shift
"We now have a reasonable idea that the BoJ spent in the region of JPY 10trn buying the yen in at least two bouts of intervention since 30th April. This is roughly similar to the amount spent in Apr-May 2024 that ultimately failed to strengthen the yen and by July that year the MoF / BoJ were intervening again. The risk with this latest intervention is that the broader global backdrop again does not support yen selling (in Apr/May 2024 front-end US yields remained elevated between 4.75% - 5.00%)."
"The reports of clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz certainly raises the risk of a renewed jump in crude oil prices that scuppers Japan’s efforts to halt a move in USD/JPY through the 160-level. But for now, Brent crude oil remains close to the lows for the week, down 12% from the high on Monday. Trump referred to the clashes while the UAE stated that it had intercepted Iranian missiles and drones."
"Data released in Japan today could also add to risks that this bout of intervention fails. Labour cash earnings increased by 2.7% in March from a year earlier, down from 3.4% and below the consensus of 3.2%. Full-time base pay, excluding recent sample changes increased by 2.6%, down from 3.0%."
"With the growth definitely on the weaker side it could certainly reinforce the current cautious stance of the BoJ. Tokyo CPI data for April, released last week, also came in weaker than expected which could add to BoJ caution. The OIS curve indicates 18bps of hikes priced by the next meeting in June and we currently maintain our view that the BoJ will hike at that meeting."
"A combination of Middle East de-escalation and a more hawkish BoJ is the most plausible route to the MoF’s recent intervention having any sustained follow-through."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold holds gains above $4,700, on track for a 2.25% weekly gain.
- The US Dollar loses ground despite fresh tensions between the US and Iran.
- XAU/USD technical indicators are showing that upside momentum is fading.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds gains above $4,700 on Friday, supported by a weaker US Dollar, despite the cautious mood in financial markets due to recent fire exchange between the US and Iran and doubts about the fate of a fragile ceasefire. The precious metal is on track for a 2.25% appreciation this week as hopes of a negotiated end to the Middle East war have weighed on the safe-haven US Dollar, although the last few days' rally has stalled below $4,770.
Iran accused the US of targeting an Oil vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and several civilian areas, while the US reported missile and drone attacks on their naval force. US President Donald Trump, however, played down these skirmishes and said that the ceasefire remains standing, while urging Tehran again to sign a deal.
Later on Friday, traders are expected to momentarily shift their gaze from the Middle East to the US April’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. NFP data will be observed from a monetary policy perspective, after the deep divergences seen at last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting have left investors wondering about the central bank’s next steps.
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls seem to be losing steam
XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias, yet with momentum indicators suggesting that upside pressure is waning. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory after pulling back from overbought levels, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has cooled from prior elevated readings, with the MACD line about to cross below the signal line, a bearish sign.
Recent price action shows the pair picking up from five-week lows, before consolidating around the $4,700 over the last few sessions. Upside attempts remain capped below the $4,765-$4,775 area (April 22 highs and Thursday's peak), which closes the path towards April's peak near $4,900.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at a previous resistance area around $4,650, with a deeper pullback exposing April 29 and May 4 lows right above the $4,500 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that the US Dollar (USD) has rebounded as hopes for a swift US‑Iran deal fade, with fresh military incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and a restart of US escorts weighing on risk sentiment. He argues Gulf developments now dominate Fed pricing and Dollar moves, while solid but sector‑concentrated US jobs data are unlikely to shift hawkish expectations materially.
Gulf tensions overshadow US data
"The dollar has risen back as optimism over an imminent US-Iran deal has faded. The US conducted strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, and Iran fired missiles at some US destroyers after claiming the US violated the ceasefire. The US specified it does not seek escalation, but this is still concerning news for a market that was close to fully pricing in a resolution."
"The WSJ also reported the US is ready to restart military escorts in Hormuz (“Project Freedom”) as early as this week, as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on airspace access. That may have prompted Trump to pause the project earlier this week, a development markets had seen as adding pressure on the US to get a deal."
"If this proves to be another episode of misplaced optimism on a US-Iran deal, not only does the dollar have plenty of upside room to recover, but there’s a good chance investors will prove more cautious and won’t jump as aggressively into de-escalation trades without concrete progress in negotiations. The hope for risk bulls is still that China is adding pressure on the US to reach some kind of deal in the Gulf before the 14-15 May Trump-Xi summit. The outlook is looking quite binary from here for the dollar, with the reaction in equities still likely to have a bigger bearing than oil volatility on DXY."
"On the macro side, the US releases jobs figures for April today. Our economists’ call on payrolls is 50k, modestly below the 65k consensus. We expect unemployment to remain unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations."
"Ultimately, news from the Gulf remains simply more important for both Fed pricing and the dollar at this stage than jobs figures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Deutsche Bank strategists note Brent Oil has rebounded above $100/bbl as markets reassess risks around the US-Iran ceasefire. Brent briefly dipped to $96/bbl but closed just over $100/bbl and is quoted near $101.64/bbl early Friday. They stress that despite higher prices, markets are still not pricing a worst-case scenario.
Oil reacts to Iran conflict headlines
"As we go to press this morning, markets have slipped back thanks to questions about whether the US-Iran ceasefire is holding. Indeed, there’s been a clear escalation in the last few hours, with the US striking targets in Iran after they fired on three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in turn, Trump posted that “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” So Brent crude is back up +1.58% this morning to $101.64/bbl, having been beneath $100/bbl for a good chunk of yesterday’s session."
"Prior to all that, Brent crude (-1.19%) had posted a modest decline yesterday to $100.06/bbl, but that was a decent recovery from the intra-day lows of $96/bbl given there were no obvious signs of progress towards a deal. Moreover, as reports of explosions in Iran came through, that pushed oil prices even higher, so whilst Brent crude spent much of the day beneath $100/bbl, it was just above that mark by the close."
"If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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