Forex News
DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that despite a planned release of strategic reserves and expectations of a short conflict, WTI Oil has pushed above $90 per barrel. He stresses that market confidence in restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains low and that reserve releases are only a short-term band-aid to a substantial supply loss.
WTI above 90 on supply uncertainty
"Despite the announced release of 400mn barrels of oil and indications from Trump that the conflict may be short, WTI prices still pushed above 90/bbl, underscoring a lack of confidence that these measures / assurances would work."
"The oil reserves release is just a short-term band aid and is insufficient to cover an estimated 25mn barrels loss of output per day from the conflict."
"The crux of the issue still lies with whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can normalize."
"Even if the conflict ends quickly, there is no guarantee that the private sector would be able to resume the oil and gas flows that the world badly needs."
"A longer-term solution (a grand bargain or a more systematic way to escort ships) would probably be needed to assuage market concerns."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
In a Truth Social Post on Thursday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that when Oil prices go up, as it has since he launched the war with Iran, the US benefits. Trump's biggest interest, however, is stopping Iran from having nuclear weapons.
Key takeaway
“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World. I won’t ever let that happen! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.48% | 0.47% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.17% | 0.21% | 0.21% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.24% | 0.02% | -0.23% | -0.15% | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.48% | 0.44% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.17% | 0.15% | -0.08% | 0.40% | 0.38% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.21% | -0.23% | -0.48% | -0.40% | -0.01% | -0.22% | |
| NZD | -0.47% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.44% | -0.38% | 0.00% | -0.23% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.14% | 0.22% | 0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD extends losses on Thursday as the escalating US-Iran war keeps the US Dollar firmly supported.
- Rising Oil prices amid growing security risks in the Strait of Hormuz fuel inflation concerns.
- Traders trim Fed rate-cut bets while markets price in an ECB rate hike as soon as July.
The Euro (EUR) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with EUR/USD extending losses for the third straight day as the escalating US-Iran war keeps the Greenback firmly bid. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1525, having retraced all the gains recorded earlier this week.
The US-Iran war continues to dominate market sentiment, with no clear signs of de-escalation as the conflict enters its thirteenth day. Oil prices are rising as security risks in the Strait of Hormuz increase, a key route for global Oil shipments. In the latest developments, Iran reportedly targeted two Oil tankers in the region, raising concerns about further disruptions to global energy supply.
As a result, traders are rotating into the US Dollar, which tends to strengthen during periods of global uncertainty due to its liquidity and safe-haven status. The Greenback gained further support on Thursday as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 7 fell to 213K, below the 215K forecast, while Housing Starts rose to 1.487M, exceeding expectations of 1.35M.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.50, up nearly 0.22% on the day.
Meanwhile, rising Oil prices are fueling inflationary pressure, prompting traders to reassess the monetary policy path of major central banks.
Markets are now fully pricing in an European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike as soon as the July meeting. However, the Euro is struggling to draw meaningful support as higher energy prices threaten the Eurozone’s economic outlook due to the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy.
Across the Atlantic, traders continue to trim Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate-cut bets, with markets now pricing in around 25-30 basis points (bps) of easing by December, down from more than 50 bps before the war began, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The latest US inflation data released on Wednesday also supports a cautious Fed stance, as price pressures remain sticky and well above the central bank’s 2% target, with markets now turning their focus to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due on Friday.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that AUD/JPY has surged to its highest level since 1990, supported by Australia’s status as a net energy exporter and speculation about further RBA rate hikes. The bank notes that unchanged expectations for BoJ policy have also underpinned the cross, but warns that prolonged geopolitical tensions, higher volatility and risk-off conditions could trigger sharp pullbacks.
Cross supported by carry and energy story
"Australia’s position as a net energy exporter is supportive for the AUD in the current environment, as is market speculation regarding the prospects of further RBA rate hikes, potentially as soon as next week."
"If the current crisis is prolonged and more central banks turn hawkish on the back of inflation risks, the JPY may benefit from a drop in liquidity and risk appetite as domestic savings return home."
"Now market pricing is indicating that rate hikes for several of those central banks, including the RBA, could be brought forward."
"Despite the support that the AUD may gains from Australia’s energy exports, carry trades can fizzle in higher volatility, risk off environments."
"While the outcome of next week’s policy meetings will set the tone for AUD/JPY near-term, we would be wary of expecting this currency pair to continue its charge higher if tensions are prolonged."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Nomura analysts expect the ECB to keep the depo rate at 2.00% on 19 March and avoid a knee-jerk response to the Iran conflict. They see March HICP inflation jumping, but argue the Governing Council will wait for evidence of persistent inflation or de-anchored expectations, making June the earliest realistic date for potential rate hikes, possibly twice.
ECB seen on hold, June risk window
"We expect the ECB to leave the depo rate unchanged at 2.00% at its 19 March meeting. We believe the Bank will avoid a knee-jerk reaction in response to the Iran conflict and instead wait to assess the real economy impact and the pass-through to inflation expectations."
"We believe HICP inflation data for March 2026 will already show a strong impact from the Iran conflict and print 0.5-0.7pp higher than it otherwise would have. We raised our forecast for March 2026 by 0.6pp to 2.5% y-o-y in response to the conflict. That said, we do not expect the ECB to have a knee-jerk reaction in April, either."
"Mme Lagarde is likely to disappoint markets to the dovish side by leaning on the idea that HICP inflation will nonetheless stabilise around the ECB’s target by the end of the ECB forecast horizon (Q4 2028), even if near-term HICP inflation rises due to the conflict. That said, we expect Mme Lagarde to reiterate the ECB will not allow a repeat of the rise in HICP inflation during the 2022 European energy crisis, which markets may interpret hawkishly."
"For the ECB to raise rates, we believe the Governing Council will want to see the shock is causing persistent inflation, as in 2022, or that the shock meaningfully raises inflation expectations."
"As a result, we believe June is the earliest meeting that the ECB could feasibly raise rates, assuming the conflict does not deteriorate beyond the peak of what we have seen already. As we outlined previously, if the ECB raises rates in response to the Iran conflict, we believe it would likely do so twice."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
A Reuters poll released on March 12 shows that economists are expecting the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting in March.
85% economists expect the bank rate to remain at 3.75% on March 19, up from 35% in the February poll. The median forecast indicates a cut in the bank rate to 3.25% by the end of September, with expectations that it will stay there until at least the end of 2026.
BoE CPI projection
In the latest BoE Monetary Policy Report published on February 5, policymakers projected CPI inflation to slow to 2.1% in 2026 Q2. But that’s before the Iran war started. The BoE will meet again on March 18 and announce its decision on March 19, while the next Monetary Policy Report will not be available until the April 30 meeting.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Franziska Biehl argue that rising Oil prices are quickly eroding Eurozone household purchasing power, especially via fuel. They stress that driving behaviour has largely normalised since the pandemic, limiting adjustment, while higher excise duties and mileage patterns mean a growing share of disposable income will be absorbed by fuel, potentially weighing on private consumption and confidence.
Fuel-driven squeeze risks Eurozone consumption
"Looking at driving behaviour in recent years shows that cutting fuel costs by simply driving less is unlikely. Significant deviations from the long‑term average only occurred during the pandemic years, when widespread working‑from‑home arrangements reduced the need to commute. Gasoline prices were not a motive."
"Since then, mileage patterns have started to normalise, suggesting limited scope for households to offset higher prices by changing their driving habits."
"Ultimately, this implies that eurozone households will once again need to devote a larger share of their disposable income to fuel, with German households facing the largest increase. For them, the share of disposable income spent at the fuel pump is expected to rise to 3.5%, up from 2.8% last year. Overall, the share of disposable income devoted to fuel ranged from around 2% in the Netherlands and 4.5% in Portugal last year."
"Although we currently assume in our base case scenario that the impact of the war in the Middle East on markets, and thus on the eurozone economy, should not be long-lasting, the recent rise in energy prices is likely to put additional strain on consumer confidence, which is already markedly low. Given the old adage that gasoline prices rise like a rocket but fall like a feather, it is not just confidence that is being hit, but actual purchasing power."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
HSBC sees global and US equities supported by strong earnings momentum linked to AI adoption, fiscal spending and a positive cyclical backdrop. The bank argues the recent tech sell-off has improved valuations and favours a broad sector allocation across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Utilities, with particular emphasis on US and Asian markets for diversification and innovation exposure.
AI trend broadens sector opportunities
"Despite the recent tech sell-off, US earnings growth remained strong in Q4 2025, reflecting continued AI adoption, software demand and margin expansion. We expect this momentum to persist, led by the technology and cyclical sectors. Tech valuations are also much cheaper now."
"The cyclical outlook also appears positive, thanks to the AI trend, elevated investment spending and fiscal support. This broadens the opportunity set in the industrials sector, which continues to benefit from fiscal spending and capital investment, with positive spillover effects on materials linked to infrastructure construction."
"Utilities have also benefitted from increasing demand for electricity – not just in the US but also in Asia and parts of Europe. Our selective yet broad-based approach helps reduce concentration risk in the US and the technology sector."
"We remain overweight on global and US equities across IT, Communications, Financials, Industrials, Materials and Utilities. In response to rising risks to oil supply from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we’ve upgraded global energy stocks to neutral."
"Geographically, we continue to favour the US, while increasingly adding to Asia, which provides stock level diversification at compelling valuations, along and a vibrant innovation ecosystem. Some emerging markets have also outperformed as investors look to reduce their US exposure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The US signals it may release Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude through swaps to ease short-term supply disruptions.
- Washington says military operations could last weeks, while naval escorts for vessels may be possible later this month.
- Oil prices remain supported amid escalating tensions around Iran and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In interviews with CNBC and CNN reported by Reuters, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that any release of Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would likely take the form of swaps, designed to address short-term supply disruptions without direct costs to taxpayers. He added that such a release could help the market “get through a few weeks of dislocation”.
The remarks come amid rising tensions involving Iran and renewed concerns about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint for global Oil flows. Wright stressed that reopening the strait is a priority and warned that Iran’s ability to threaten regional shipping must ultimately be neutralized.
According to the Energy Secretary, any military operation related to the crisis would likely take weeks rather than months. He also indicated that US naval escorts for commercial vessels are not currently in place, although such measures could become possible before the end of the month.
Wright added Oil markets in the Western Hemisphere are “not really tight” compared with Asia.
Market reaction
The comments didn’t get significant market attention. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil surges on Thursday, gaining 5.10% and trading around $91.75 per barrel at the time of writing.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes that Shanghai silver arbitrage signals strong Chinese demand, contrasting with cautious Western investors after the Iran conflict. London OTC markets are still absorbing flows and lease rates point to better availability. This backdrop supports TD Securities’ view that global Silver inventory coverage is improving despite earlier tightness.
Shanghai arb signals robust buying
"Shanghai silver arb points to strong Chinese demand. The shell-shock from the recent conflict is keeping Western investors cautious, but the trend in Shanghai silver arb points to a resurgence in Chinese demand for silver following the unprecedented retail demand for silver in the early months of 2026."
"This demand impulse has kicked off in the days leading up to the war in Iran."
"For the time being, London OTC markets continue to absorb this demand well, with silver lease rates continuing to point to improving availability."
"This contrasts sharply with the early-year market context, and lends strength to our view of rising inventory coverage in global silver markets."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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