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Nordea’s Helge J. Pedersen notes that Danish GDP grew 2.9% in 2025, with fourth-quarter growth at 0.2%. The pharmaceutical sector’s volatility significantly distorted both quarterly and annual figures, masking underlying trends. Domestic demand, especially private consumption and public spending, remained resilient, while investment weakened and inventories dragged on GDP.

Pharma volatility clouds GDP signal

"The Danish economy, measured by GDP, expanded by a robust 2.9% in 2025, according to new figures released this morning by Statistics Denmark. Fourth-quarter growth was recorded at 0.2% compared to the previous quarter."

"The pharmaceutical industry has gained extraordinary significance for Danish economic growth. Without its contribution, gross value added (GVA) would have been 1.7% for the full year 2025. However, in the fourth quarter, the pharmaceutical industry severely dampened growth."

"This development once again demonstrates that the pharmaceutical industry's substantial importance to the Danish economy means GDP figures can be difficult to use as a reliable indicator of how the Danish economy is actually performing. Production fluctuates significantly month-to-month, and a large portion is based on manufacturing outside the country's borders."

"Examining demand components reveals continued growth in private consumption, which rose 0.2% over the quarter—somewhat less than in the third quarter. This marked the ninth consecutive quarter of private consumption growth!"

"From an international perspective, Danish economic development was moderate in the fourth quarter. Growth in both the EU and eurozone was 0.3% over the quarter."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• USD/CAD trades under pressure after the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs.
• Canadian Retail Sales decline, but beat downside expectations.
• Mixed US economic data show slowing growth and firm inflation pressure.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback trims earlier intraday gains after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3690, though it remains on track for modest weekly gains.

In a 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court found that President Donald Trump overstepped his constitutional authority by using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad import duties.

However, the Court stopped short of clarifying the issue of tariff refunds. According to estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the US government could face more than $175 billion in refund claims if the ruling leads to repayments.

Uncertainty still lingers, as President Donald Trump had previously indicated that he could explore other legal tools to keep tariffs in place if the Court ruled against him.

Traders also digested fresh economic data from both the US and Canada.

In Canada, Retail Sales declined 0.4% MoM in December, slightly better than the expected 0.5% drop but reversing November’s 1.2% increase. Retail Sales excluding autos rose 0.1%, beating forecasts for a 0.3% contraction, though slowing sharply from the prior 1.6% gain.

In the US, advance estimates showed the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, slowing sharply from 4.4% in the previous quarter and falling short of the 3% consensus forecast.

Inflation data painted a firmer picture. Core PCE — the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.4% MoM in December, accelerating from 0.2% and topping expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, Core PCE climbed to 3.0% from 2.8%, also above the 2.9% forecast.

Headline PCE inflation also firmed in December. The PCE Price Index rose 0.4% MoM, accelerating from 0.2% in November and exceeding the 0.3% consensus. The annual rate ticked higher to 2.9% from 2.8%.

The softer growth data contrasts with the firm inflation readings, complicating the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Sticky price pressure reinforces the view that the Fed may need to keep interest rates higher for longer, even as economic momentum cools. Still, markets continue to price in two rate cuts later this year.

Other data releases showed signs of cooling activity in the US economy. Preliminary S&P Global PMI figures indicated that the Composite PMI slipped to 52.3 in February from 53 previously. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 from 52.4, while the Services PMI edged down to 52.3 from 52.7.

At the same time, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 56.6 in February from 57.3, with the Expectations Index steady at 56.6. Notably, inflation expectations ticked lower, with the 1-year outlook easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and the 5-year measure slipping to 3.3% from 3.4%.

• The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, sending equities higher on Friday.
• Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4%, well below the 3% consensus, weighed down by the Q4 government shutdown.
• Core PCE inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.0% year-over-year, complicating the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook.
• S&P Global flash PMIs for February showed softening across both manufacturing and services sectors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reversed early-session losses on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs in a landmark 6-3 decision. The Dow rose 207 points, or 0.42%, to trade near 49,600 after falling over 200 points in early trading on disappointing economic data. The S&P 500 gained 0.52% to 6,895 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.68% to 22,837. Retail-heavy ETFs like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) briefly surged 1.8% in the immediate aftermath of the ruling, with companies most affected by import duties leading the charge.

Supreme Court delivers blow to Trump's signature economic policy

The Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president authority to levy tariffs, invalidating the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs and the 25% duties imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Justices Gorsuch and Barrett alongside the three liberal justices. Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissented. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other trade authorities, such as the 50% levies on steel and aluminum under Section 232. Estimates from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model suggest more than $175 billion in collected IEEPA duties may need to be refunded, though the ruling was silent on the refund question. The Trump administration has previously signaled it would attempt to replicate the tariff structure through alternative legal mechanisms, but analysts note replacement measures would likely be more limited in scope and slower to implement.

Weak GDP and hot inflation data weigh on early sentiment

Before the Supreme Court ruling stole the show, markets opened lower after a double dose of discouraging economic data. Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at an annualized 1.4%, sharply below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.0% and a dramatic slowdown from Q3's 4.4% expansion. The government shutdown during the fourth quarter took a significant bite out of growth, with analysts estimating the disruption shaved anywhere from 0.25 to 1.5 percentage points off the headline. For full-year 2025, the US economy grew 2.2%, the weakest pace since 2020. On the inflation front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, slightly above estimates. Core PCE, stripping out food and energy, accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%, topping expectations and marking its highest reading in nearly a year. Both headline and core readings rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% consensus.

Fed's Bostic keeps hawkish tone in final days before retirement

Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is retiring at the end of February, has maintained his hawkish stance in the days leading up to Friday's session, rating a 7.2 out of 10 on the FinancialJuice hawkish-dovish scale. In recent appearances, Bostic has stressed that inflation remains too high and that the Fed should be patient. He has projected no rate cuts for 2026, noting that one or two cuts could bring policy to neutral, and warned that it is premature to declare victory on inflation. Bostic has also flagged that tariff-related inflation pressures are not yet fully worked through the economy, a view that takes on fresh significance in light of the Supreme Court ruling. With IEEPA tariffs now struck down, the inflationary impulse from trade policy could ease faster than the Fed had anticipated, though replacement measures from the White House could muddy the picture. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a roughly 90% probability the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the March meeting, with markets pricing in around a 32.5% chance of 50 basis points in total cuts through the end of the year.

Friday's economic calendar rounds out a data-heavy session

Beyond GDP and PCE, Friday's data slate brought a mixed bag. Preliminary S&P Global PMIs for February showed softening activity, with manufacturing slipping to 51.2 from 52.4 and services easing to 52.3 from 52.7, both below consensus. The University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment index for February came in at 56.6, slightly below the 57.3 consensus, while the expectations index held at 56.6. Notably, UoM 1-year consumer inflation expectations ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5%, and 5-year expectations eased to 3.3% from 3.4%. New home sales for November rebounded 15.5% month-over-month after a revised -8.8% decline in October, while December new home sales fell 1.7%.

Dow Jones daily chart

• USD/JPY trades lower on Friday following softer inflation figures in Japan and a fiscal uncertainty surge in the US.
• The easing in price pressures may temper expectations of tightening by the Bank of Japan.
• The US Dollar remains fragile amid fiscal uncertainty and mixed US data.

USD/JPY is trading around 154.90 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.13% on the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains modest support after inflation data showed a clear moderation in price pressures at the start of the year, while the US Dollar (USD) tumbles after the Supreme Court rules Trump's national security tariffs unlawful.

In Japan, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% YoY in January, down from 2.1% in December, marking the slowest pace since March 2022. The index excluding fresh food eased to 2%, from 2.4% previously, in line with expectations. The so-called core-core measure, which excludes both fresh food and energy, also slowed to 2.6%, compared with 2.9% in the prior month.

This cooling in inflation could temper expectations of a swift monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Investors are now reassessing the timing and magnitude of any further policy normalization, after months of speculation about a gradual exit from ultra-accommodative settings. A sustained slowdown in price growth would complicate the central bank’s ability to justify additional rate hikes in the near term.

However, some economists argue that underlying price dynamics remain relatively solid. Société Générale analysts note that the recent disinflation is partly driven by temporary factors, including lower energy prices and certain fiscal measures, while services inflation remains firm. According to the bank, the intensity of service-sector price revisions in January suggests that the April adjustments could continue to support the inflation path, keeping the prospect of gradual BoJ normalization alive.

On the US side, the US Dollar is trading in a more uncertain environment. The US Supreme Court’s ruling that broadly invalidated the application of certain tariffs on “national security” grounds has weighed on the Greenback, fueling uncertainty around trade policy. In addition, fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below expectations, while S&P Global’s business activity indicators pointed to a slight slowdown in February. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 56.6 in February from 57.3 in January, and was below expectations.

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights a rebased GDP series to be released on February 27, shifting calculations from 2011–12 to 2022–23 and incorporating new surveys and COICOP 2018. DBS forecasts real GDP growth at 7.3% year-on-year in 3QFY26 (4Q25), viewing the revised series as a better gauge of underlying activity.

Rebasing to refine growth measurement

"A new rebased GDP series will be released on 27-Feb, with revisions expected to capture more recent economic shifts, data categorisation changes, increased digitisation and formalisation of the economy, besides other shifts."

"Calculations will be rebased from 2011-12 to 2022-23."

"For instance, supply side GVA gauge for the unincorporated sector is proposed to be estimated using data from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Force Survey."

"For estimation of private consumption expenditure (PFCE), a mixed approach will be adopted, amalgamating data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey, direct estimation based on production and other data sources as well as commodity flow approach."

"We forecast real GDP at 7.3% yoy in 3QFY26 (4Q25) basis the current trend, with the revised number likely to be a better representative of underlying economic activity."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's entire tariff policy.
• The Trump administration is expected to move quickly to find another legal framework to impose tariffs at whim.

The US Supreme Court (SC) issued a ruling on Friday, declaring President Donald Trump's sweeping application of an archaic trade law to impose tariffs using stretched "national security" claims was broadly unlawful.

The Trump administration will now have to go back to the drawing board to find a new legal precedent to broadly apply to whiplash tariff imposition as a negotiating tactic rather than a reasoned economic strategy.

The Supreme Court's decision did not directly address refunds of tariffs collected since the kick-off of Trump's sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs announced in early 2025; legal progress will continue to grind forward as the Trump administration looks for a way to re-impose tariffs using alternative justifications, and also figure out a way to avoid having to pay back tariff receipts.

US Dollar market reaction

The US Dollar tanked on the news, tumbling one quarter of one percent and driving the US Dollar Index (DXY) into new lows for Friday below 97.75.

DXY 15-minute chart

• Gold trades above $5,000 on Friday as escalating US-Iran tensions lift safe-haven demand.
• Market digest US economic data, including core PCE inflation and US GDP.
• Bulls hold above the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart, but any upside looks capped near the $5,050-$5,100 resistance area.

Gold (XAU/USD) gains momentum on Friday after trading largely flat on the previous day, as ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran lift demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, hotter-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data adds to concerns about persistent price pressure, reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $5,030, extending its recovery after sliding to a nearly two-week low around $4,842 on Tuesday.

US-Iran tensions intensify amid military buildup

US-Iran tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump warned on Thursday that he expects clarity on a new nuclear deal within the next 10 to 15 days. “We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” Trump said, as the US military buildup in the Middle East continues.

Meanwhile, Iran and Russia also conducted joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. Iran’s envoy to the United Nations said Tehran would respond “decisively” to any “military aggression” by the United States and called on the UN Security Council to condemn recent threats by President Trump.

Bullion has now retraced almost all of losses seen earlier in the week, suggesting buyers have stepped back in, reinforcing the broader bullish structure, even as a firm US Dollar (USD) and fading Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut bets act as headwinds.

US core PCE inflation, GDP and consumer sentiment data

Resilient US economic data and hawkish-leaning Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes released earlier this week have prompted traders to scale back expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. Even so, markets still anticipate that the Fed could lower borrowing costs twice this year.

The latest core PCE data further reinforced the view that the Fed may keep interest rates on hold in the coming months. Core PCE advanced 0.4% MoM in December, picking up from 0.2% and beating the 0.3% estimate, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.0% from 2.8%.

Surprisingly, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP came in much weaker than expected. The US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 1.4% in Q4 2025, sharply down from a strong 4.4% growth rate in Q3 and well below market expectations of 3.0%.

The University of Michigan survey indicated soft consumer confidence in February. The headline Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 56.6, down from 57.3 previously, while the Expectations Index held steady at 56.6. Notably, inflation expectations ticked lower, with the 1-year outlook easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and the 5-year measure slipping to 3.3% from 3.4%.

Technical analysis: Bulls eye break above $5,050-$5,100 as momentum improves

According to the 4-hour chart, the near-term structure remains neutral to mildly bullish. Prices are showing signs of stabilization above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,976.

On the upside, the $5,050-$5,100 region, which aligns with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern, remains a key hurdle for bulls after facing repeated rejections.

A sustained move above this zone could strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a broader extension of the recovery.

On the downside, a break back below the 100-period SMA could expose the rising trendline support of the symmetrical triangle pattern near $4,850. Further weakness may bring $4,700 into focus, followed by the $4,400 region.

Momentum indicators support the constructive bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line in positive territory, with a widening histogram pointing to strengthening upside momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 59, above the midline and pointing upwards, indicating improving tone without overbought conditions.