Forex News
- Gold pulls back from record highs as traders take profits after a steep, parabolic rally.
- A broad sell-off hits metals, equities, and crypto, signaling short-term risk reduction across markets.
- Despite retreat, Gold remains up over 23% YTD, eyeing the best monthly gain since the 1980s.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims some of its earlier losses on Thursday as traders book profits following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which barely moved the needle as the yellow metal seems poised to record its best month since the 1980s. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,315, down 1.83%.
Bullion pares earlier losses as profit-taking follows the Fed hold, poised for historic monthly gains
The yellow metal hit a record high near $5,600 on Thursday before volatility in the financial markets spiked, sending Bullion prices towards its daily low at $5,098.
During the day, the financial markets witnessed a plunge in precious metals, which also sent Silver prices to a daily low of $106.62 a troy, with the Nasdaq also plunging while Bitcoin and Ethereum followed suit.
Although speculation suggests that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could have been the trigger, it seems that investors took some of their chips off the table, amid the ongoing parabolic run that keeps Gold up 23% year-to-date (YTD).
In the meantime, the nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be named next week, revealed US President Donald Trump.
Data-wise, the US economic docket revealed jobs data as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose above estimates, according to the Department of Labor. At the same time, the US trade deficit widened the most since March 1992, rising to $56 billion in November, due to a surge in capital goods imports.
The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged on Wednesday, signaling that it would adopt a cautious approach and decide policy meeting by meeting.
Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature December’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the Chicago Fed PMI and speeches by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
Daily market movers: Gold's advance halts as the Dollar recovers
- The drivers behind Gold's move have been the US Dollar being steady and, investors booking profits. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is nearly flat at 96.27.
- Falling US Treasury bond yields capped Gold’s losses, as the 10-year Treasury note is down two basis points at 4.227%, as of writing.
- The Labor Department revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dipped from upwardly revised 210K figures to 209K in the week ending January 24. Economists expected 205K claims for the latest week. Continuing Claims fell from 1.865 million to 1.827 million, beneath estimates of 1.86 million, an indication that the labor market had stabilized, as stated by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his presser.
- After the Fed’s decision, money markets are still expecting 48 basis points of easing, according to Prime Market Terminal Data.
- On Thursday, UBS increased its forecast for Gold prices to $6,200 a troy ounce for March, June and September, up from $5,000 foreseen. Nevertheless, by the end of the year, they expect Bullion to finish at around $5,900.
Technical outlook: Gold lacks clear direction following volatile session
Gold price remains upward biased, but it seems poised to consolidate if it doesn’t close above the January 28 daily high of $5,415. Bullish momentum has faded as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The RSI dipped from extreme overbought territory, yet as it aims towards the 70 threshold, it indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge.
If XAU/USD stays above $5,300, it could trade sideways within the $5,300-$5,400 range. A break at the top of the range will expose $5,500 and the record high at $5,598. Conversely, if Gold dives below $5,300, it could exacerbate a drop towards $5,200 and below.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Megacap tech earnings dragged markets lower, led by Microsoft’s sharp post-earnings drop.
- Software stocks slid as AI optimism faded, pushing the IGV ETF into bear market territory.
- Meta earnings and record-high copper prices stood out as key pockets of strength.
US equities faced renewed pressure on Thursday as megacap technology earnings and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tepid showing this week weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, and the Dow slipped around 0.2%, while cryptocurrencies declined more than 4% to their lowest levels in nearly two months. Microsoft was the primary drag, tumbling 11% after reporting slower cloud growth and issuing weaker operating margin guidance, marking its worst day since early 2020.
Rising tides don't lift all boats forever
Weakness spread across the software sector, reflecting growing investor unease about still-rising artificial intelligence spending and its hypothesized potential to overturn established business models. ServiceNow (NOW) fell sharply despite beating earnings expectations, while Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce (CRM) also declined. The software-focused IGV ETF dropped into bear market territory, now more than 20% below its recent high, highlighting how quickly sentiment has shifted in a segment that had previously benefited from AI optimism. While AI remains a long-term growth driver, it is no longer delivering consistently positive surprises, making earnings quality and diversification increasingly important as valuation expansion becomes harder to sustain.
There were notable bright spots on Thursday: Meta (META) shares surged after the company delivered strong earnings. Meta posted 24% revenue growth driven by advertising and issued an upbeat sales forecast. Investors appeared comfortable with Meta’s aggressive AI investment plans, even as capital expenditures are set to nearly double from last year, signaling confidence in its ability to fund growth while maintaining profitability. Caterpillar (CAT) also added to the positive side of earnings season with a solid quarterly beat.
The US government has once again failed to clear a critical budgetary hurdle, and is barreling towards another government shutdown. The Trump administration has been at the helm during two of the US’s longest-running government shutdowns, and investors fear a third record-setting federal government closure could kick off another period of limited or no official data with which to gauge the American economic engine.
"Doctor Copper" signals everything's okay
Outside equities, copper prices reached an all-time high, tangentially reaffirming expectations for resilient global economic activity. Futures climbed more than 8% to $6.45 a pound, extending a strong multi-month rally. Copper mining stocks and related ETFs posted outsized gains, with several major producers up 35-50% in January alone, marking one of the strongest periods for the sector in more than a decade.
Dow Jones daily chart
AI stocks FAQs
First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve.
There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine.
Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
Commerzbank's FX Research report by Charlie Lay and Moses Lim highlights that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its current policy stance, leaving the SGD NEER unchanged. MAS has revised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 1-2% from 0.5-1.5%, indicating a readiness to respond to inflationary pressures. The SGD NEER is currently estimated to be +0.9% above the mid-point for USD-SGD at 1.2640. The report emphasizes that MAS is strategically positioned to manage economic uncertainties.
MAS maintains policy amid inflation concerns
"MAS revised up the headline and core inflation forecast for this year to 1-2% from 0.5-1.5% in October last year. MAS is strategically positioned to respond to the upside risks to inflation or downside risks to growth."
"In the brief statement, MAS said that it 'is in an appropriate position to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability and will continue to closely monitor economic developments amid uncertainties in the external environment.'"
"For the SGD NEER valuation, we estimate it is at the strong end of the band at +0.9% above the mid-point for USD-SGD at 1.2640, USD-MYR at 3.9330, and USD-CNY at 6.9490. The +/-2% range around the mid-point corresponds to USD-SGD at 1.2510-1.3020, with the mid-point at 1.2760, ceteris paribus."
"Overall, it was status quo from MAS. They are strategically and well-positioned to tackle the landscape ahead. There is no urgency to ease monetary conditions further, given the robust growth momentum."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 30:
Financial markets were choppy on Thursday, with significant volatility during US trading hours. In the absence of other news, the focus was on United States (US) President Donald Trump, who said on Truth Social that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should substantially lower interest rates: “now! We should be paying lower interest rates than any other country in the world.” Trump took another jab at Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him “too late Powell” and claiming he is hurting the US and its national security.
The Fed on Wednesday kept the fed fund rates unchanged, as widely expected, but Powell struck a less dovish tone, noting that “the US economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing.” Powell added that job gains remain modest, unemployment is stabilizing, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Wall Street's slumped due to a sell-off in the tech sector, partially explaining the recent market movements, but not completely. Microsoft Corp. shares fell to their lowest in six-years after the company reported record spending in the last three months of 2025, spurring concerns it will take longer than expected for the company’s AI investments to pay off.
DXY: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 96.20 level, recovering from four-year lows.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.23% | -0.33% | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.36% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.23% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.35% | -0.01% | -0.26% | -0.38% | |
| JPY | 0.23% | 0.13% | 0.23% | -0.10% | 0.25% | -0.01% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | 0.23% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.36% | 0.10% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.01% | -0.25% | -0.36% | -0.25% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.01% | -0.10% | 0.25% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.36% | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.38% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
AUD/USD is trading near the 0.7020 price zone, staying near three-year highs as the Australian Dollar (AUD) rocketed, with Gold reaching fresh all-time highs.
USD/JPY is trading near the 153.00 price region after the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s committee shared the scenario of rising inflationary pressures, a weak Japanese Yen (JPY), and wage growth, which paves the path for further monetary tightening.
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1950, unchanged on a daily basis after posting a four-year high two days ago.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3790 price zone, as the Great British Pound (GBP) keeps itself above a weak USD.
Gold clings to its corrective pullback, trading near the $5,330 price zone after hitting a record high of $5,598 earlier in the Asian session.
What's next in the docket:
- Flash Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Flash Eurozone GDP.
- Flash German CPI.
- US Producer Price Index (PPI).
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- AUD/USD sputtered on Thursday, backsliding from multi-year highs.
- The Aussie has been on a tear, but fresh sentiment jitters hit AUD markets hard.
- Despite a lopsided Thursday session, the Aussie is still up 1.3% for the week.
AUD/USD hit a slippery slow patch on Thursday as volatility worsens across the board. The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit a three-year high against the US Dollar (USD), before falling back into the low side for the day as broad-market sentiment flows sour.
The metals-sensitive Aussie is taking a correlated hit as both Silver and Gold prices suffer a volatility shock across global markets. Despite knocking into accelerated record highs this week, investor sentiment is turning wary in the face of an increasingly questionable AI rally and a looming US government shutdown.
Spot Gold prices came within inches of poking through a new all-time high of $5,600 per ounce on Thursday before a sharp rebuke sent XAU/USD bids back below $5,100. Intraday Gold prices have since stabilized around where the day started near $5,350 per ounce, but the knock-on volatility damage has been dealt, paring away what would have been a 0.9% gain in the AUD/USD pair.
The US government has once again failed to clear a critical budgetary hurdle, and is barreling towards another government shutdown. The Trump administration has been at the helm during two of the US’s longest-running government shutdowns, and investors fear a third record-setting federal government closure could kick off another period of limited or no official data with which to gauge the American economic engine.
AUD/USD daily chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Australia's CPI has exceeded expectations, with persistent inflation in services and housing, alongside resilient labor data. These factors strengthen the case for a cautious 25bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, notes Deepali Bhargava, ING's Regional Head of Research, Asia-Pacific.
RBA on track for cautious rate increase
"CPI inflation for December – and therefore for the fourth quarter of 2025 – surprised to the upside. Trimmed mean CPI rose to 3.4% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus, driven by persistent price pressures in housing (up 5.5% YoY) and in recreation and culture (up 4.5% YoY)."
"Taken together, these developments strengthen the case for further tightening. We now expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp in February, as the December CPI print confirms inflation remains consistently above target and is unlikely to moderate in line with the Bank’s earlier expectations."
"This suggests that if the RBA does proceed with a February hike, it is likely to be a cautious one, reflecting the delicate balance between supporting growth and containing stubbornly high inflation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD trades flat as a firmer US Dollar caps upside momentum.
- Dollar stabilises after Fed holds rates, but broader downside risks linger.
- ECB officials flag concerns over Euro strength and its impact on inflation.
The Euro (EUR) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with EUR/USD struggling to find direction as a firm Greenback caps upside attempts. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1952 after touching its highest level in over four years earlier this week.
The Greenback also dipped to its lowest level since 2022, as investors rotate out of the US Dollar amid concerns that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) are fueling longer-term currency debasement risks.
However, the US Dollar is showing signs of stabilisation, drawing some support as traders reassess the Fed’s monetary policy outlook following Wednesday’s interest rate decision.
The central bank left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, and struck a cautious, data-dependent tone, stressing that the Committee is well-positioned to adjust monetary policy if needed, should risks arise that threaten progress toward its dual mandate.
Even so, downside risks for the US Dollar remain in play, helping to keep the broader bias in EUR/USD tilted to the upside and leaving the door open for further gains.
That said, the Euro’s sharp recent appreciation is beginning to draw attention from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, reviving concerns that a persistently stronger currency could eventually complicate the policy outlook.
Austrian central bank Governor and ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said “If the euro appreciates further and further, at some stage this might create, of course, a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy,” Kocher noted, stressing that this would not be about targeting the exchange rate itself, “but because the exchange rate translates into less inflation, and then this is of course a monetary policy issue.”
Following the comments, Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) showed a modest uptick in easing expectations, with markets now pricing in around a 26% chance of a rate cut by the September meeting, up from roughly 16% previously. Even so, the ECB is still widely expected to leave policy unchanged at its next meeting on February 4-5.
Looking ahead, focus shifts to key economic data due on Friday, with Eurozone preliminary Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Unemployment Rate on tap, followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI).
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- The US Dollar weakens against the Swiss Franc amid a renewed risk-off mood.
- Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and concerns over the independence of the Fed weigh on the USD.
- The decision to keep US interest rates unchanged reinforces a cautious bias in markets.
USD/CHF trades around 0.7660 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.40% on the day, under pressure from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits from a market environment marked by political uncertainty in the United States (US), persistent geopolitical tensions, and growing questions over the credibility of US institutions.
The US currency remains weighed down by an unpredictable trade policy, as well as debates surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed). At its latest meeting, the US central bank decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the current stance of monetary policy is considered appropriate to achieve the goals of maximum employment and price stability, a message that nonetheless failed to restore investor confidence in the Greenback.
Concerns over a new US budget impasse are also undermining the US Dollar. The lack of visibility regarding funding for certain federal agencies has revived worries about economic governance in the country, fueling flows into safe-haven assets. In this context, the Swiss Franc fully benefits from its defensive status, especially as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reinforce investor caution.
According to analysts at MUFG, the loss of confidence in US economic policymaking has revived fears of long-term currency debasement, supporting demand for the Swiss Franc as a store of value. The bank notes that this dynamic could increase pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) if the CHF continues to appreciate. For its part, BNY believes the SNB is likely to adopt a cautious approach and wait for new inflation projections before considering any policy adjustment, while ruling out a return to negative rates for now.
Overall, the combination of a US Dollar weakened by political and institutional uncertainty and a Swiss Franc supported by safe-haven flows keeps USD/CHF under pressure in the near term, despite the relatively neutral tone adopted by the US central bank.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.26% | -0.33% | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.37% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.08% | -0.22% | -0.25% | 0.15% | -0.12% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.30% | -0.34% | 0.03% | -0.24% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 0.26% | 0.22% | 0.30% | -0.08% | 0.32% | 0.03% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | 0.25% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.40% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.32% | -0.40% | -0.27% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.24% | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.27% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.42% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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