Forex News
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) reports that stronger US inflation data and hawkish comments from several Fed officials have shifted market focus toward the size of a December rate hike.
Officials stress persistent inflation risks
"The US inflation surprise shifted the FOMC December rate debate from whether to hold or hike 25bps to a choice between a 25bps or 50bps hike. Indeed, Fed funds futures moved to price-in as much as 15% odds of a 50bps increase on December 9. That hawkish shift bodes well for USD."
"Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voter) remarked “given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases…It may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved so far this fall.”"
"Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman also struck a hawkish tone noting “I am seeing signs that inflation pressures are persisting, while labor market conditions appear to be firming. This indicates that there is still work to do to bring inflation closer to 2 percent.”"
"Finally, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voter) was more cautious. Paulson said “I would want to act more quickly if inflation expectations drift up, if wage pressures build, or if underlying inflation moves higher…Right now, that's not what I'm seeing.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/USD attracts fresh sellers as the USD builds on hot US CPI-inspired positive momentum.
- Fed’s Waller fuels expectations of a jumbo rate hike in December and further benefits the USD.
- The BoE’s hawkish outlook could support the GBP and help limit losses for the currency pair.
The GBP/USD pair turns lower for the second straight day following an intraday uptick to the 1.3355 region on Wednesday, sliding back closer to a one-and-a-half-week low, which it touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, hold above the 1.3300 mark amid a combination of diverging forces, warranting caution for aggressive bearish traders.
The US Dollar (USD) extends a hot US consumer inflation-inspired rally to a near one-week top amid firming expectations for a more aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and exerts some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, traders have started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo rate hike in December in reaction to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish comments on Tuesday.
Furthermore, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff and continuing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the Greenback. Investors, however, remain hopeful about a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war, which could act as a headwind for the USD and help limit further depreciation for the GBP/USD pair.
Furthermore, the Bank of England (BoE) hawkish stance could offer some support to the British Pound (GBP). In fact, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Tuesday that further interest rate increases remain likely due to high energy prices and economic resilience in the UK. Hence, a convincing break below the 1.3300 mark is needed to confirm that the GBP/USD pair's recent move up has run out of steam.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.68% | 0.10% | 1.47% | 1.34% | 0.25% | 0.88% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | 0.30% | -0.28% | 1.08% | 0.95% | -0.14% | 0.49% | |
| GBP | -0.68% | -0.30% | -0.57% | 0.78% | 0.66% | -0.40% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.28% | 0.57% | 1.37% | 1.24% | 0.15% | 0.78% | |
| CAD | -1.47% | -1.08% | -0.78% | -1.37% | -0.13% | -1.20% | -0.58% | |
| AUD | -1.34% | -0.95% | -0.66% | -1.24% | 0.13% | -1.07% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | 0.14% | 0.40% | -0.15% | 1.20% | 1.07% | 0.63% | |
| CHF | -0.88% | -0.49% | -0.19% | -0.78% | 0.58% | 0.45% | -0.63% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver price soars to near $53 despite sell-off US bond market.
- Hotter-than-expected US CPI data for October has boosted US Treasury yields.
- Commerzbank sees the US inflation remaining elevated next year too.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up almost 3% to near $53.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The white metal rallies even as debate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver a supersize interest rate hike in the December policy meeting has heated, following the release of the hotter-than-projected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. This has resulted in a sharp increase in yields on US Treasuries
US inflation surprise keeps pressure on Treasuries
Strategists at Deutsche Bank highlight that the inflation data were the key catalyst for the latest bond selloff, noting that “that US CPI print drove the biggest moves of the day, with the monthly core CPI print for October above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected).”
Deutsche Bank points out that “moreover, it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%.” According to the bank, “that’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip.”
The bank also underscores that “meanwhile, the headline CPI numbers were faster still, with monthly headline CPI at +0.35% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the 3-month annualised pace at +5.72%.” In their view, “for markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve.”
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are 2.4% higher at around 5%. Technically, higher yields on US interest-bearing assets diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
What are expectations for the US inflation outlook?
Economists at Commerzbank caution that US price pressures remain uncomfortably elevated, stressing that “prices are still rising too quickly, even though the increase was somewhat smaller than in September.” They highlight that “core inflation, a key gauge of the underlying trend, thus remains (too) high and is no longer trending downward,” underscoring their view that underlying price dynamics have stalled rather than continued to improve. In their assessment, “the strong economy and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East suggest that inflation is unlikely to ease in the near term,” and they judge that “inflation is not expected to decline until 2027, and even then, it is likely to remain above a level consistent with price stability.”
Such a scenario will likely keep the Silver price under pressure.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $52.94. The metal holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $53.89, keeping the near-term tone bearish, as recent attempts to stabilize have not yet reclaimed this dynamic barrier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.6 has recovered from oversold territory but remains below the 50 line, suggesting only modest easing in downside momentum rather than a confirmed shift in trend.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $53.89, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to soften the current bearish bias and open the way for a more meaningful recovery. With no clear nearby structural supports derived from the provided indicators, the downside remains vulnerable while price trades beneath the EMA, leaving XAG/USD exposed to further weakness if sellers reassert pressure below recent lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Final German HICP confirmed a 0.1% monthly contraction and 2.8% year-on-year growth for October.
- EUR/CAD holds ground as lower crude prices weaken the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
- WTI falls amid easing US-Iran tensions and potential diplomatic settlement options.
EUR/CAD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.5840 during European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of final German inflation data.
Final German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data confirmed preliminary estimates of a 0.1% monthly contraction and 2.8% year-on-year growth in October. These figures follow 0.6% and 3.3% respective increases in September, confirming initial estimates.
European sovereigns track US selloff as ECB path repriced
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that “earlier in Europe, there was a major selloff for sovereign bonds too, although not quite as big as in the US,” as investors moved to price a more hawkish ECB trajectory. They note that yields on Bunds, OATs and BTPs rose sharply, with markets pushing the probability of a December ECB hike close to fully priced and adding further tightening out to the June 2027 meeting.
The EUR/CAD cross holds ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price continues to lose ground for the fourth successive day, trading around $85.20 per barrel at the time of writing.
Crude oil prices depreciate following signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a potential diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.33% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.03% | -0.24% | -0.03% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.27% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.13% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.27% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.22% | 0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | 0.03% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.06% | -0.22% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.33% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.41% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen and colleagues note that a stronger US CPI print and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric triggered a sharp repricing of Fed expectations, lifting the Dollar Index and weighing on EUR/USD. Markets now fully price a 25 bp Fed hike in December and see some risk of 50 bp, while US yields surged across the curve, reinforcing Dollar strength.
Hawkish Fed bets pressure Euro
"That impact was clear from market pricing, with the amount of hikes for a December up from 21.0bps on Monday to 27.7bps by last night’s close, and 28.5bps this morning."
"So in other words, a 25bp hike is fully priced in, with futures also pricing in a 14% chance of a larger 50bp move."
"Indeed, the rate priced in for the September 2027 meeting was up +22.3bps yesterday, so investors had priced in almost a full additional rate hike to next year’s path."
"For markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve."
"Meanwhile, DB’s own US economists have updated their Fed view, adding a rate hike in January to their profile."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/JPY struggles to capitalize on a modest uptick as a broadly firmer USD pressures the GBP.
- The BoE’s hawkish stance could help limit GBP losses and support the cross amid a weaker JPY.
- The uncertainty over the likely timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps JPY bulls on the defensive.
The GBP/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the 212.15-212.20 area on Wednesday, retreating to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 211.70 region, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.
A broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), bolstered by bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is seen weighing on the British Pound (GBP), which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. However, the Bank of England (BoE) hawkish stance could help limit deeper GBP losses. In fact, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Tuesday that further interest rate increases remain likely due to high energy prices and economic resilience in the UK.
Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that Japan's Household Spending declined for the 10th straight month in September, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans for further interest rate hikes. This, along with the prevailing risk-on mood, is seen as undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and should offer support to the GBP/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful depreciation in the near term.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to Thursday's UK macro data dump, including the preliminary Q3 GDP print. In the meantime, the aforementioned supporting factors back the case for the emergence of some dip-buying at lower levels. Bulls, however, would need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance, currently pegged around the 213.00 round figure, before placing fresh bets.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
TD Securities reports that US Treasuries bear flattened sharply after stronger US CPI and hawkish comments from Governor Waller led markets to price in additional Fed tightening. Front-end yields moved higher, breakevens widened, and the bank warns that highly negative BE carry in early 2027 could become a headwind for the inflation-linked asset class.
Front-end repricing and BE carry headwinds
"Rates: Treasuries bear flattened sharply as the market penciled in more rate hikes."
"Markets leaned into Governor Waller's comments from earlier in the session around potentially needing a "catch up" 50bp hike, bringing pricing for hikes in December higher from 25bp to around 28bp and increasing pricing for hikes in 2027 to 45bp from 34bp."
"This pressured the front-end sharply higher, flattening the curve and moving BEs wider."
"Markets will be waiting on further Fedspeak to confirm whether other FOMC members agree with Waller before pushing December pricing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US index futures jumped after President Trump signaled reduced likelihood of further military action against Iran.
- CoreWeave’s strong quarterly beats and Anthropic’s potential debut fueled renewed optimism across the AI sector.
- The pre-market rebound follows Tuesday’s losses driven by heightened CPI-linked Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
Dow Jones futures gain 0.16% to trade around 52,400 during the European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures advance 0.60% to trade around 7,590 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.45% to trade around 28,230.
US stock futures surged as risk appetite returned to the market, driven by signs of easing geopolitical friction. US President Donald Trump indicated that further military action against Iran may no longer be required, a stance supported by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the G7 summit. At the same time, Congressional Democrats are planning to use the approaching government funding deadline as leverage to steer the administration toward a diplomatic resolution.
Market sentiment gained momentum from strong financial results delivered by AI computing provider CoreWeave, which rekindled enthusiasm for the broader artificial intelligence sector. CoreWeave shares jumped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after the company delivered beat-and-raise quarterly earnings, underscoring resilient demand for AI infrastructure. Confidence in the space was also reinforced by reports that Anthropic could make its market debut as soon as next week, aiming to raise up to $90 billion at a diluted valuation near $1.4 trillion.
This rebound follows a weak session on Wall Street on Tuesday, where the Dow Jones dropped 0.35%, the S&P 500 shed 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.74%. US equities came under pressure after the latest CPI release solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch tool suggesting 85% odds of a rate increase in December.
US core inflation print surprises to the upside in October
Societe Generale’s Jan Groen highlights that the latest US inflation data came in firmer than anticipated, noting that “October core CPI surprised to the upside at 0.3% m/m.” He points out that this stronger core reading underscores lingering underlying price pressures, even as markets look ahead to the corresponding PCE data for a fuller assessment of the inflation trend.
AI stocks FAQs
First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve.
There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine.
Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
Rabobank’s Global Daily flags comments from Dutch European Central Bank (ECB) presidential candidate Klaas Knot, who told the Financial Times that the ECB would not hesitate to act if circumstances require. He suggested that in a future crisis of a different nature, the ECB might develop another, more tailored instrument, raising questions about how far policy support could extend.
Knot hints at future ECB flexibility
"It’s also notable that the Dutch candidate to replace ECB President Lagarde, Klaas Knot, gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he stated, “If circumstances require it, we will not hesitate to take action.”"
"He wasn’t referring to 50bps rate hikes due to geopolitically driven inflation but in the opposite direction, where if Europe were to see a future crisis “of a different nature,” he “would not rule out developing another, more tailored instrument.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz highlights that persistent US inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. The report cites comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating at least a 25-basis-point hike in December, with 50 basis points considered under certain conditions. Commerzbank continues to expect another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting.
Market focus on December FOMC decision
"We continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its next meeting in December."
"In a speech this morning before the data were released, influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already called for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in December, even if the figures came in better than in September."
"Waller said that if the monthly core reading was 0.3% (as now reported) or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should even be considered."
"This signals the direction of the debate, although we do not expect such a drastic move to win majority support on the Federal Open Market Committee."
"We continue to believe that September’s single rate hike is not enough to bring inflation down meaningfully, especially with the economy still humming and unemployment low."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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