Forex News
- USD/MXN nears 17.00 as softer US CPI supports the Peso.
- Fed hold expectations rise after inflation extends downward trend.
- Banxico steady-rate outlook keeps carry advantage supporting Mexican Peso.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciates on Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) to levels last seen in May 2024 following a decline in US inflation, as markets expected, softer-than-expected, which trims bets of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its next meeting. The USD/MXN pair trades at 17.05 after hitting early lows of 17.01.
USD/MXN falls on cooler US inflation, traders trimming Fed hawkish bets
Data from the US showed that July CPI matched estimates, indicating that the disinflation process continues. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, while core CPI eased from 2.6% to 2.5% in the twelve months to July.
The data was benign, following Oil’s 23% July jump. Although West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 9% so far this week, it remains below June’s levels.
However, Fed dovish members are not out of the woods yet. Recent news reports pointed out that Iran denied talks to extend the ceasefire with the US for another 60-days, contrary to Pakistani sources. At the same time, US President Donald Trump said that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, Boston Fed Susan Collins said that if inflation remains high, she would vote to raise rates, according to the Financial Times.
The US Dollar index (DXY), measuring the Dollar's performance against six currencies, is at 99.98, up a modest 0.17%.
According to the Citi Mexico expectations survey, all analysts expect Banxico’s key policy rate to remain at 6.50% through the end of the year. The median forecast also indicates that the USD/MXN exchange rate will close this year at 17.90.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.0557, extending its decline beneath the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) pack, with the 50/100/200-day SMA group now aligned near 17.3918 as overhead resistance. The pair’s location well below this long-term average cluster suggests a bearish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28.78 has slipped into oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched even as the broader downtrend remains intact.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the triple SMA cluster around 17.39, where any corrective bounce would likely meet supply and reinforce the broader downward structure. On the downside, with no nearby technical floors from the current dataset, traders may look to price action behavior and the oversold RSI reading to gauge the risk of a short-term consolidation or corrective rebound before the prevailing bearish trend resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- NZD/USD trades near 0.5860, extending its slide as the Kiwi struggles to find support.
- New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived a second leadership challenge within his National Party.
- Middle East tensions continue to limit appetite for risk-sensitive currencies.
NZD/USD is trading near 0.5860, down over 0.30% on Wednesday and falling for the third consecutive day.
New Zealand's own political backdrop is adding to the pressure as Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived a second leadership challenge within his National Party, underscoring divisions less than three months before the country goes to the polls.
Middle East tensions remain elevated, with no active discussions reported on extending the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, limiting appetite for risk-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi.
On the US side, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.4% year-on-year in July, matching forecasts. The in-line print gave the Dollar no fresh catalyst of its own, so the third straight day of losses in NZD/USD was driven more by New Zealand's own troubles than by broad US Dollar strength.
New Zealand's own data is also on the docket Thursday, with Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) inflation expectations and the Business Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5859, keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone as it slips below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5878 while holding above the 100-period SMA at 0.5842. The pair is hovering just over the nearby horizontal support at 0.5856, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreating toward the 40 area, which hints at waning upside momentum but stops short of oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.5861, followed by 0.5870 and the former congestion area around 0.5867, with a stronger cap emerging at the 20-period SMA near 0.5878; above that, the focus would shift to 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 before the distant barrier at 5,954. On the downside, a break below the 0.5856 floor would expose the 100-period SMA support at 0.5842, and a decisive move under this area would reinforce the prevailing bearish bias on the four-hour chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD closed little changed around 1.2800, with the S$NEER trading 1.7% above its mid-point and implying a 1.2760–1.2822 range. Their short-term view keeps the pair confined between 1.2785 and 1.2815, while the 1–3 weeks outlook highlights downside risk toward 1.2740 if 1.2765 breaks.
Dollar-Singapore stays range bound
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Monday’s price action, we stated yesterday that “there has been no clear increase in upward momentum,” and we held the view that USD “is likely to range-trade between 1.2785 and 1.2815.” Our view of range-trading was not wrong, though USD traded within a narrower range than expected (1.2797/1.2816) before closing little changed at 1.2800 (-0.05%). Momentum remains flat and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 1.2785 and 1.2815."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815), we highlighted that while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” After USD closed at 1.2785 on Friday, we highlighted yesterday (11 Aug, spot at 1.2805) that “while the price action continues to suggest downside risk, USD must break clearly below 1.2765 before a move to 1.2740 can be expected.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2840 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that a less hawkish Fed has weakened the Dollar but failed to spark a sustained bid in commodity FX such as Norwegian Krone (NOK), Australian Dollar (AUD) and Emerging Markets (EM) currencies Chilean Peso (CLP), South African Rand (ZAR) and Brazilian Real (BRL). High nominal rates in Australia and Norway are offset by stagflation and productivity issues, while South Africa’s policy stance reflects a clear global growth priority over carry.
Commodity currencies struggle for follow-through
"Even before last Friday’s payroll numbers, iFlow showed dollar hedges rising again. Mean reversion was already overdue, but the Fed decision and subsequent “credibility” narrative accelerated the process. We have always viewed extreme positioning as an amplifier of price action, and the dollar is adjusting accordingly."
"Gold aside, there’s still no sign of the broad commodity move needed to revive the “debasement” trade that dominated markets in January and February. In FX, we can isolate some of the cleanest commodity currencies: NOK, AUD and an EM basket of CLP, ZAR and BRL. In the full trading week after the Fed decision, there wasn’t a single session when the entire group was net bought; by a week later, aggregate flows were again moving toward net selling."
"The Reserve Bank of Australia and Norges Bank retain the highest nominal rates in G10, but idiosyncratic risks remain too high to generate a sufficient front-end real-rate gap vs. USD."
"Meanwhile, as the Iran conflict has broadly stabilized in market terms, commodity-linked economies are more willing to return to earlier easing paths and prevent real rates from widening again. South Africa is a good example: the Reserve Bank of South Africa surprised markets by holding rates in July and maintained a forward-looking bias, with expectations of weaker inflation opening the door to a policy pivot. The global growth priority is increasingly clear, creating a hard ceiling for carry performance unless the Fed starts signaling cuts."
"Don’t chase the weaker-dollar commodity trade yet. Keep commodity FX and EM duration exposure selective until flows confirm a broader growth recovery, not just easier Fed expectations."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF refreshes ten-day highs as uptrend remains intact.
- Bearish flag warns of retracement below 50-day SMA.
- Break above the flag targets 0.8200 and the yearly peak.
The USD/CHF pair edges higher by some 0.30% on Wednesday, refreshing ten-day highs of 0.8138, as the uptrend is poised to extend if it clears key resistance levels.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows continues to be respected, indicating that the uptrend remains in place. Nevertheless, it seems that a bearish flag is forming, which could open the door for a deeper pullback before USD/CHF resumes its uptrend.
Momentum remains bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). But if USD/CHF falls below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8071, it opens the door to a retracement, initially to 0.8042, ahead of 0.8000.
Conversely, if the pair surpasses the top trendline of the bearish flag, this clears the way towards 0.8200 and the yearly peak at 0.8205. Once those two levels are removed, buyers could challenge the psychological levels of 0.8250 and 0.8300.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.39% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.19% | 0.24% | 0.19% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.15% | 0.26% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.12% | 0.28% | 0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.15% | 0.27% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.15% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.39% | 0.38% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.24% | -0.26% | -0.28% | -0.27% | -0.39% | -0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.24% | -0.21% | -0.38% | 0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH has been confined to a tight range and expect the Dollar to trade between 6.7430 and 6.7530 in the near term. Over the coming weeks, they still see scope for a drift lower toward 6.7300 unless 6.7580 resistance breaks, while a medium-term recovery needs a move above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar stuck in tight CNH range
"24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated yesterday that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 6.7410 and 6.7510.” However, USD traded within a tight 6.7444/6.7489 range. We are not able to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 6.7430 and 6.7530."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300.” Although there has been no further increase in downward momentum, there is still a chance for USD to edge lower toward 6.7300. On the upside, a breach of 6.7580 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to range-trade instead."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 13:
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its recovery on Wednesday following a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that printed in line with forecasts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed back above the 100.00 mark, and the bid has broadened out against most majors heading into a data-heavy Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.39% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.24% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.00% | -0.16% | 0.26% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.13% | 0.28% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 0.28% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.40% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.24% | -0.26% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.17% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.37% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD has slipped back toward the low 1.1500s, with the pair reversing earlier gains as the US Dollar recovered from its post-CPI decline.
GBP/USD faded into the high-1.3400s as traders position ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Thursday.
USD/JPY has extended its rebound, pushing back toward the 159.50 region.
Gold has extended its advance to trade near $4,410 per troy ounce amid Middle East tensions racking up.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil holds steady near the $83.00 per barrel mark as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.
The Asian session opens on Thursday with New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectations, followed in the European session by the main event, the UK's preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected to show growth slowing down.
The US session brings Initial Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), where core prices are expected to slow sharply to 4.2% YoY in July from 4.7%. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Hammack and Barkin are both due to speak around the release.
Late in the day, New Zealand's Business Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and a speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will close out the session, setting the tone for Friday's Asia-Pacific open.
- XAG/USD clears key resistance after reclaiming the 50-day SMA.
- Bullish RSI keeps $66.59 and the 100-day SMA in focus.
- Pullback below $63.28 exposes the 50-day SMA and $60.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) price surges over 1.40% on Wednesday as the latest inflation report in the United States (US) showed that prices are cooling, on its way towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) goal of 2%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $65.53 after reaching a daily high of $66.80.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the white metal is neutral to upward biased, with bulls gathering strength. They cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $61.60 and also the July 6 high at $63.28 on its way towards reclaiming the $65.00 figure.
Momentum still favors further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aiming upwards. Hence, the path of least resistance is up.
The first resistance would be the August 10 high at $66.59. Once surpassed, the next stop is the 100-day SMA at $68.87, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.47. Above lies $75.00.
For a bearish resumption, XAG/USD must drop below the 50-day SMA. This can prompt investors to challenge the July 6 high-turned support of $63.28. Beneath, the next area of interest is the $60.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold rallies above $4,400 as softer CPI eases Fed pressure.
- Fed hold bets rise for September after cooler inflation print.
- Hormuz closure risk keeps energy-driven inflation concerns alive.
Gold price (XAU/USD) registers gains of over 1% on Wednesday as US inflation data aligns with estimates, easing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) task of further tightening monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory. The XAU/USD trades above $4,400 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,362.
XAU/USD rallies after US inflation cools, easing September hike fears
Bullion extended its gains as investors speculate that the Fed will not raise rates at its September meeting, following July’s report. On Tuesday, money markets priced in a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting. But the dip in inflation shifted the odds to 60% that the US central bank will keep rates steady, according to Prime Terminal data.
The Fed has a 73% chance of raising rates in December, with three inflation reports before the December 9 meeting.
July’s CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6%, while core CPI also edged lower from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY, as revealed by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). Even though Oil prices rose nearly 24% in July, gasoline prices declined for the second straight month.
However, geopolitics continued to weigh on the economy, and if negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach common ground to end the conflict, energy prices could jump again, threatening to halt the disinflation process in the US.
According to Al-Mayadeen, an Iranian political and security source said that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and that Tehran hasn’t changed its policy.
US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” It's a belief that isn't backed up by the facts on the waterway. At the same time, CNN reported that US embassies in the Middle East would continue to work with reduced staff amid the Iran war.
On Thursday, traders' eyes will be on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and Initial Jobless Claims data. If the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rises, it could increase downside risks to the labour market, which could push the Unemployment Rate higher.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold climbs back above $4,400, eyes on $4,500
Gold price seems to be gaining traction as it clears the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,388, potentially opening the door to further upside. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining traction. Hence, the path of least resistance is upward in the short term.
XAU/USD's first resistance would be the $4,450 psychological level. A breach of it will expose the 200-day SMA exactly at the psychological $4,500 mark. A daily close above the latter could pave the way to challenge the $5,000 milestone.
On the flip side, if Gold falls below the low of the day (LOD) at $4,362, it opens the door to a deeper pullback. The next support is $4,300, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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