Forex News
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Oil prices remain under pressure, with ICE Brent trading below $80/bbl as markets focus on a potential US-Iran deal to reopen flows through the Strait of Hormuz. EIA data show modest net crude inventory declines, while strong US distillate exports and global disruptions in the Middle East and Russia keep refined product markets tight.
Brent pressured as products tighten
"ICE Brent continues to trade below $80/bbl as the market pins its hopes on a deal between the US and Iran. It would resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signalled progress toward this goal, announcing that it has reached an agreement with Oman on new shipping arrangements for the strait, with a joint statement on the deal now being prepared."
"Iran has insisted that the agreement must proceed without interference from unnamed third parties — a formulation that, in practice, almost certainly refers to the US. The real hinge point now becomes the trajectory of US–Iran discussions, because meaningful progress there is essential before disrupted energy flows can realistically resume."
"EIA’s inventory report showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.48m barrels over the last week, while the SPR fell by 2.84m barrels. This leaves total crude oil inventories to fall by a marginal 362k barrels. Crude oil imports increased by 515k b/d week-on-week, while exports grew by 218k b/d."
"Refined products saw further tightening over the week, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 1.64m barrels and 3.47m barrels, respectively. Strong exports are causing further tightening in the US distillates market. Exports rose 98k b/d WoW to a record 1.88m b/d."
"Globally, middle distillate markets are seeing significant tightness amid supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia’s export ban on diesel."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY clings to recovery move near 157.80, which came after a significant plunge last week.
- The US and Japan might intervene again to prop up the Japanese Yen.
- Investors await the US NFP data for July.
The USD/JPY pair holds onto a three-day recovery move near 157.80 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair recovers as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced profit-booking after a juggernaut jump last week, following the United States (US)-Japan joint intervention to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months.
Financial markets expect the Japanese currency won't be able to sustain US-Japan joint intervention-driven strength unless it gets boost from structural changes in the domestic economy.
Yen positioning stabilizes as BoJ follow-through seen key to renewed inflows
Analysts at BNY Mellon argue that recent “coordinated intervention has bought time but hasn’t materially increased foreign JPY holdings.” They note that “investors remain net long JPY, but exposure is well below H1 2026 levels and won’t rebuild without credible domestic follow-through: Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening, fiscal consolidation and structural reform.” In their view, the current allocation picture is uneven across asset classes, with “Japanese equities remain largely passive and under-supported, while Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are attracting the clearest marginal demand.”
Meanwhile, hopes of US-Japan intervention again are high, as Japan Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier this week that Japan “won't hesitate to carry out more forex intervention with the US”.
On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors shift their focus to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY trades at around157.83, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 160.55. The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the EMA overhead suggests prices are still capped despite the latest bounce attempt, pointing to a market that is correcting rather than trending higher.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 160.55, which acts as the primary barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate downside pressure. On the downside, the key support level for the pair is the two-month low of 155.23; below this, the pair would find next support near the February 23 low at around 154.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended modest gains to close at 1.1551, with mild upward momentum still intact. Intraday, the pair may test 1.1565, though a move to 1.1600 is seen as unlikely without stronger momentum. On a 1–3 week horizon, a sustained rise requires a daily close above 1.1565 while holding above 1.1495 support.
Euro's grind higher faces key hurdles
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565.” We were not wrong, as EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 before settling at 1.1551 (+0.19%). The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.1530 (minor support is at 1.1540) would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” While EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 yesterday, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. In other words, EUR still must close above 1.1565 before further sustained rises can be expected. The odds of EUR closing above 1.1565 will remain intact as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 1.1495 (level was at 1.1470 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD trades flat near 1.4015 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Tehran and Oman agreed on route coordinates in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Fed’s Schmid said he favored tighter Fed policy to bring down inflation.
The USD/CAD pair USD/CAD holds steady around 1.4015 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders await a possible US-Iran deal, which could give direction to the pair. The US Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday.
CNN reported on Wednesday that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, it still wouldn’t automatically reopen the critical waterway. Early Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated that he had very productive talks with Iran.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran deals. Any signs of renewed tensions between the two countries could boost the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers could underpin the Greenback in the near term. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday that tighter monetary policy may be required to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.
Canada trade surplus extends as gold offsets energy weakness
Economists at Royal Bank of Canada highlight that "Canada's trade balance held in surplus for a fourth consecutive month in June," with a notable "jump in gold exports offsetting a (price-related) drop in energy exports." They point out that this composition underscores the role of precious metals in supporting the external position at a time when lower energy prices are weighing on export values.
Schmid flags AI-driven inflation risks and backs tighter Fed stance
Fed’s Schmid delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 7.3/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 7/10 historical average, emphasizing that current policy is “not tight” and that tighter monetary policy is needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The focus on AI investment as a new inflation driver, the warning that recent energy cost relief may be temporary, and the insistence that inflation remains “too high” and “worrisome” despite resilient growth and a roughly balanced labor market underscore a bias toward further restraint, even if price pressures stem from supply shocks and are assessed primarily through the PCE gauge.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.96 points to 145.80, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness relative to the established baseline. However, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still well above the neutral 100 mark, Schmid’s remarks keep the Fed firmly in hawkish territory despite the slight softening in tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, USD/CAD holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting underlying demand on dips despite the recent pullback from the upper band. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.37 has retreated from overbought territory into the lower mid-range, hinting at cooling bullish momentum but not yet signaling a decisive bearish shift while price is supported by these underlying averages.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the Bollinger middle band near 1.4070, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around 1.4155, where recent advances have stalled. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the day’s open region around 1.4015, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band at 1.3980; a deeper slide would expose the more significant floor at the 100-day SMA around 1.3912, where buyers are likely to defend the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/USD holds gains near 1.1550, after a 1.6% rally from last week's lows.
- German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 3.1% growth in June.
- In the US, ADP Employment figures disappointed on Wednesday, adding concerns of a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) at the European session opening times on Thursday, with the EUR/USD pair holding gains at the 1.1550 area after rallying about 1.6% from last week's lows. The common currency keeps drawing support from lower Oil prices and upbeat Eurozone data, while investors’ cautiousness ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release is weighing on the USD.
German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 3.1% increase in June, largely exceeding the 0.3% market forecast, and a downwardly revised 0.3% reading in May. These figures follow an upward revision of the HCOB Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on Wednesday, and cement expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike rates in September.
US macroeconomic data fails to inspire
In the US, ADP Employment data disappointed on Wednesday, with a 44K increase, less than half June’s 98K rise and well below the 70K anticipated by the market consensus. Apart from that, the ISM Services PMI edged up to 54.1 in July from 54 in the previous month but fell short of the market expectations of 54.5, with price pressures jumping and employment falling.
On the geopolitical front, Reuters reported a proposed deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that gives Tehran control over traffic. The US Government did not respond to the plan, but US President Donald Trump has firmly opposed the possibility of Iranian control over the strait.
On the technical front, FX analysts at Scotiabank highlight that EUR/USD's "short-term price action has revealed additional near-term resistance around 1.1550," but add that they "see nothing major ahead of the 200-day MA at 1.1630." In this context, the bank continues to "look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600" as the Euro consolidates recent gains.
Economic Indicator
Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)
The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
Read more.Last release: Thu Aug 06, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 3.1%
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 1.9%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator
Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
Read more.Last release: Thu Aug 06, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 6.5%
Consensus: -
Previous: 6.2%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Germany's Factory Orders rose in June, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector activity gained momentum, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday.
Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ jumped by 3.1% in June after rising by a revised 0.3% in May. Data beated the estimated 0.3% increase.
Germany’s Factory Orders rose by 6.5% year-over-year (YoY) in June, as against the previous increase of 4.5% (revised from 6.2%).
Market Reaction
The Euro (EUR) edges slightly higher in an immeidate reaction to the upbeat Germany’s Factory Orders data. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair trades 0.02% lower to near 1.1550.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.10% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.08% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.01% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.00% | 0.03% | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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