Forex News
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad looks for Canada June headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.9% year-on-year, with core measures near 2%. With inflation anchored around the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target, swaps price less than a 50% chance of a 25 bps hike by year-end and only 50 bps of tightening over twelve months, leaving policy near the midpoint of the estimated neutral range.
Anchored CPI a headwind for Canadian Dollar
"Canada June CPI (Monday). Headline CPI is seen at 2.9% y/y vs. 3.2% in May on lower gasoline prices, core CPI (ex. food & energy) is expected at 1.7% y/y vs. 1.6% in May, and core CPI (average of trim and median) is projected to remain at 2.05% for a third straight month."
"Core inflation remains anchored near the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2% target, supporting an extended pause which is a headwind for CAD."
"The swaps curve price in less than 50% odds of a 25bps rate hike by year-end and 50bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 2.75% - the mid-point of the BoC’s estimated neutral range (2.25%-3.25%)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/USD rises as UK 10-year yields hit 5% on oil inflation, reinforcing expectations of prolonged BoE rate hikes.
- Markets watch PM Andy Burnham take office, reassured by Shabana Mahmood's potential Chancellor appointment easing fiscal expansion fears.
- The US Dollar weakens as markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.
GBP/USD gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.3470 during the European hours on Monday. The pair strengthens as the UK 10-year gilt yield held near 5%, driven by surging oil prices that stoked inflation fears and signaled that the Bank of England (BoE) may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Meanwhile, market attention turned to Downing Street as Andy Burnham assumed office as Prime Minister on Monday. Investors were further reassured by reports positioning Shabana Mahmood as the leading candidate for Chancellor, easing concerns over overly aggressive fiscal expansion.
Additionally, the GBP/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground, which could be attributed to the market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. However, market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 61.4% probability of a rate hike in September.
The Greenback may regain its ground on increased risk aversion amid escalating hostilities between the United States (US) and Iran. The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region's narrow waterways.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp rebound in Brent Oil as US–Iran tensions escalate, with Brent posting its biggest weekly gain since April and extending gains this morning. They link higher Oil and European natural gas prices to renewed inflation concerns and notes that bond futures are weaker. They also flag a thematic piece on how higher Oil could trigger a broader risk selloff.
Geopolitical escalation lifts Brent sharply
"Recapping last week now, geopolitics remained top of the agenda for markets, with a sharp rise in oil prices as the strikes between the US and Iran showed no sign of easing. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices ended the week up +15.91% (+4.59% Friday) at $88.10/bbl, marking their biggest weekly jump since April."
"In response, this morning Brent is up +2.45% to $90.26/bbl after a ninth consecutive night of US strikes against Iran. Given the escalation US futures are performing relatively well with S&P (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.47%) contracts higher."
"So that revived fears about a more persistent inflation shock, particularly with European natural gas prices also rising, and the front-end future rose +19.95% last week (+5.79% Friday) to its highest level since March at €58.01/MWh."
"Topical Deutsche Bank publications: * Commodities Outlook: Look on the bright side, July 15 * Thematic Research: What’s the pain threshold: when will higher oil prices drive a bigger selloff?, July 14."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD catches fresh bids following a modest gap down opening at the start of a new week.
- A positive risk tone undermines the USD and supports the Aussie amid the RBA’s hawkish tilt.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions, inflation fears, and Fed hike bets limit USD losses and cap the pair.
The AUD/USD pair hits a fresh daily high during the early part of the European session on Monday, with bulls now looking to build on the intraday move up beyond the 0.7000 psychological mark amid a weaker US Dollar (USD).
Despite a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a generally positive tone around European equity markets – prompts some intraday selling around the safe-haven buck. This, in turn, assists the AUD/USD pair to attract some dip-buyers following a modest bearish gap opening at the start of a new week.
Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and reviving hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, the US completed a ninth straight night of strikes against Iran, while the latter fired ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting US allies in the region. This raises the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Furthermore, renewed US-Iran hostilities, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices. This, in turn, revives inflationary concerns and reaffirms market bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. The outlook acts as a tailwind for US Treasury bond yields and should help limit further USD losses.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, draws support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) relatively hawkish stance and steady economic data from China. The AUD/USD bulls, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis amid the absence of relevant US economic data on Monday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.23% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.12% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.21% | -0.04% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes AUD/USD slipped below prior consolidation but still trades within 0.6960–0.7000 intraday. On a 1–3 week view, earlier strong momentum toward 0.7045 has faded somewhat, yet the upside scenario remains valid while 0.6950 holds. Longer term, the bank still sees a negative structure with focus on 0.6835 and 0.6707.
Aussie Dollar holds support as momentum fades
"24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD traded sideways between 0.6986 and 0.7012 last Thursday, we indicated on Friday that “further sideways trading appears likely today, probably within a range of 0.6980/0.7015.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected, as AUD eased to a low of 0.6966. The decline did not result in a clear increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect AUD to trade in a range between 0.6960 and 0.7000."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Wednesday (15 Jul, spot at 0.6975), we indicated that “upward momentum is starting to build, but it is too early to determine whether AUD can break the significant resistance at 0.7015.” After AUD rose to 0.7021, we highlighted on Thursday (16 Jul, spot at 0.7005) that “the rapid increase in momentum suggests AUD could rise toward 0.7045.” However, instead of continuing to advance, AUD pulled back to a low of 0.6966 on Friday. Momentum is starting to fade, but only a breach of 0.6950 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that AUD is not rising toward 0.7045."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Dow Jones futures rise as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.
- Rising oil prices from US-Iran tensions reignited inflation fears, pushing September rate hike expectations to 60.7%.
- US indexes now look to upcoming corporate earnings for guidance after a tech slump sparked by a semiconductor sell-off.
Dow Jones futures gain 0.14% to trade around 52,450 during European trading hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.26% and 0.50%, trading near 7,520 and 28,920, respectively.
US stock futures gain ground as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. However, markets price via the CME FedWatch Tool now reflect a 60.7% probability of a rate hike in September as United States (US)-Iran clashes drive oil prices higher, and resurfacing inflation risks are fueling expectations for rate hikes.
The US has launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets. In response, Iranian officials declared that the ceasefire between the two nations has been effectively abandoned, opening the door for deepening disruptions to crucial energy pathways through the region's narrow waterways.
Following a tech-led slump driven by a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks, major US indexes are looking to upcoming corporate earnings for direction. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9%, the S&P 500 fell 1.55%, and the Dow Jones lost 0.93%. Leading the downturn, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF plummeted nearly 9%, recording its third weekly drop in four weeks. Investors are now shifting their focus to upcoming high-profile quarterly reports from Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
According to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), more than 5,000 firms that participated have downplayed expectations for an increase in selling prices. The survey showed that selling prices growth expectations have cooled down to 3.2% Year-on-Year (YoY), down from 3.5% anticipated in the previous survey.
Other findings were:
Growth in non-labour input costs, including energy, is projected to rise by 5.2% YoY, down from
the previous expectations of 5.8%.
Inflation expectations at the one, three and five-year horizons remained largely stable.
Firms expect lower increases in selling prices, non-labour input costs and wage expectations.
Middle East war forcing firms to seek alternative suppliers, improve energy efficiency.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
ING’s Chris Turner writes that Sterling has benefited from expectations Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally cautious chancellor, alongside stale short positioning and M&A-related flows into United Kingdom (UK) equities. Turner sees scope for limited further Pound strength during Burnham’s early days, but warns tight UK public finances likely mean tax hikes. EUR/GBP support is seen at 0.8470, with 0.8400 as a best-case level.
Political shift but fiscal constraints
"Andy Burnham is set to succeed Keir Starmer as the UK Prime Minister later today. Sterling has been doing quite well recently on the view that Burnham will select a more fiscally responsible chancellor in the form of Shabana Mahmood – an announcement that will probably emerge today."
"However, we think a larger part of sterling's strength owes to stale short sterling positioning, and we suspect some large M&A flows going through, where cheaper valuations have made UK equities an attractive proposition this year."
"While we do not rule out a little further sterling strength during the Burnham honeymoon period, the UK's tight fiscal situation suggests a new cabinet will have to turn to tax increases if it wants to build out its plans to improve areas such as social care."
"EUR/GBP has support at 0.8470, and 0.8400 might be the best-case for sterling this summer, but we would not chase the EUR/GBP move lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD rallies on Monday despite the risk-off mood and tests monthly highs at 0.5860.
- Fed/RBNZ monetary policy divergence is supporting the Kiwi.
- Technical indicators point to an overstretched rally.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) resumed its broader bullish trend against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following a mild pullback over the previous two trading days. Bulls are pushing against the resistance area between 0.5860 and 0.5865, so far unaffected by the risk-off mood amid the hostilities in Iran.
The Kiwi Dollar has been drawing support from the favourable monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s central bank hiked interest rates earlier in July and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, while, in the US, the soft inflation figures seen last week have dampened hopes of a rate hike in the near term.
This, so far, is offsetting the negative impact on the risk-sensitive Kiwi from the escalating tensions between the US and Iran and the surging Crude Oil prices.
Technical Analysis: Indicators hint at an overstretched rally
NZD/USD trades at 0.5862, holding a constructive near-term bias as it clings to gains above the reclaimed ascending trend-line support. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14), near 70, shows overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to soften, hinting that upside strength might be losing momentum.
On the topside, bulls are pushing against the mentioned resistance area ahead of 0.5865 (June 15, July 15 highs). Further up, a previous support-turned-resistance, around 0.5910 (June 1 low), looks a plausible target.
A bearish reaction, on the contrary, is likely to be tested at the trendline support, now around 0.5835, ahead of Friday's low at 0.5825. A deeper pullback might look for support at the July 10 and 13 highs, just below 0.5800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.26% | -0.27% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.00% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.14% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.18% | -0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Euro holds the recovery move near 1.1450 against the US Dollar.
- The ECB and the Fed are expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the July meeting.
- Escalating Middle East tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment.
The Euro (EUR) holds its early recovery move at around 1.1450 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair rebounds as the US Dollar turns upside down amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the July policy meeting.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.65.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the July meeting are 85.6%, up from 65.8% recorded last week. Traders scaled back hawkish Fed expectations after the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
Though the Euro trades higher against the US Dollar, the former is underperforming against its other peers amid escalating geopolitical tensions. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed late Sunday that it had concluded a ninth straight night of strikes against Iran, clarifying that the latest aggression was in retaliation for the killing of at least three American service members.
This week, the major trigger for the Euro will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave policy rates unchanged after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) in the June meeting. Investors will pay close attention to the ECB’s monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s speech to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Economic Indicator
ECB Rate On Deposit Facility
One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 23, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 2.25%
Previous: 2.25%
Source: European Central Bank
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