Forex News
- Gold tumbles as traders digest the first Fed policy decision with Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Fed holds rates steady, but dot plot signals hawkish split.
- SEP sees Core PCE at 3.3%, above target.
Gold (XAU/USD) price declines as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, while the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows policymakers expect inflation above the 3% threshold. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades volatily within the $4,330-$4,280 range.
XAU/USD swings as Warsh’s Fed removes guidance
In the statement, the Fed removed forward guidance language, in what was Kevin Warsh’s first lead on monetary policy. The Fed acknowledged that the economy is expanding solidly, despite uncertainty about the Middle East conflict and that the jobs market remains steady, keeping the unemployment rate little changed.
Furthermore, “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 per cent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows that the median expects the Fed Funds Rate to end at 3.8%, up from March’s 3.4%, with the economy expected to grow 2.2% towards the end of 2026, and Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge at 3.3%, 1.3% above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Gold’s reaction
The yellow metal is tumbling, due to the hawkish tilt observed in the dot plot with half of the FOMC members expecting rates above the 3.75% threshold, while the rest opted to keep rates unchanged. There is speculation that Warsh opted not to provide forward guidance in the dot plot.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- USD/CHF holds inverse head-and-shoulders above 200-day SMA support.
- Flat RSI slope signals indecision despite bullish momentum backdrop.
- Break above 0.7950 exposes 0.8013 and 0.8042 resistance.
The USD/CHF pair remains steady on Wednesday as market participants await the US central bank's monetary policy decision, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7932, flattish.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows that the ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’ remains intact, with the USD/CHF spot price sitting above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7905, usually sought for investors and algos, as a trend-setter signal in the long term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum is bullish, though the index’s slope is horizontal, an indication of indecision amongst traders.
Above, the USD/CHF's first key resistance is the 0.7950 psychological level, followed by the June 11 swing high at 0.8013. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the March 31 high of 0.8042, which is also the ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’ measured target, ahead of 0.8050.
On the flip side, if the pair slides below the 200-day SMA, it opens the door to clear the 0.7900 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the confluence of the 50-day SMA and the June 4 daily low of 0.7868, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7841. Below these levels lies the 0.7800 figure.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.16% | 0.26% | -0.09% | 0.24% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.09% | -0.26% | 0.11% | -0.24% | 0.12% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.29% | 0.03% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.36% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.34% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.40% | -0.34% | -0.01% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.24% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.34% | 0.01% | -0.34% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.20% | 0.25% | -0.12% | 0.28% | -0.07% | 0.27% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
- WTI trades around $75.70 on Wednesday, down 0.22% on the day, continuing its run of five daily declines.
- Prospects of a resumption in Iranian Oil exports continue to weigh on Crude prices.
- Analysts note that Oil market normalization remains uneven despite easing geopolitical tensions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $75.70 on Wednesday at the time of writing, posting a loss of 0.22% on the day. After four consecutive days of heavy losses, US Crude Oil is showing signs of stabilization, although modestly down for the day at the time of press, as investors continue to assess the implications of the upcoming US-Iran agreement for the global supply outlook.
Markets remain focused on the interim accord expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday between Washington and Tehran. The agreement is expected to pave the way for a rapid resumption of Iranian Oil exports and support a gradual recovery of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data already indicate that several Iranian tankers have resumed movements this week, reinforcing expectations of increased global supply in the coming months.
The improved supply outlook has weighed on Middle Eastern Crude benchmarks. Dubai Crude recently slipped into contango for the first time since January, while spot Oman and Murban differentials also moved into discount territory. This shift is generally viewed as a sign of more comfortable near-term supply conditions.
However, several market observers argue that a full normalization of physical flows could take longer than expected. While diplomatic progress is gradually removing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices, the complete recovery of shipping activity across the region remains uncertain.
Analysts at Société Générale note that the normalization process following the US-Iran agreement is unfolding unevenly across different market indicators. According to the bank, Brent prices, implied volatility and options markets are not reflecting the same degree of normalization, suggesting that investors continue to price in residual risks.
Meanwhile, MUFG argues that the recent decline in Oil prices has significantly reduced near-term inflation risks. The bank believes that the sharp drop in Crude prices could provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with additional flexibility in its monetary policy decisions, even as policymakers maintain a cautious stance on the US economic outlook.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
ABN AMRO’s research examines how evolving Federal Reserve policy and Eurozone fundamentals may shape EUR/USD over the coming quarters. The authors describe a gradual convergence in growth and inflation between the US and Euro area and argue this should support a higher EUR/USD level over time, while highlighting risks from divergent central bank paths and global risk sentiment.
Euro Dollar pair and convergence
"We expect EUR/USD to trend higher over the coming year as interest rate differentials narrow and markets price out some of the exceptionalism that has supported the Dollar in recent quarters."
"In our view, a gradual normalisation of US growth relative to the Eurozone, combined with a Fed that is closer to the end of its tightening cycle than the ECB, should provide a constructive backdrop for the Euro."
"If the Fed is forced to maintain a more restrictive stance for longer, while the ECB proceeds with its own easing plans, the upside for EUR/USD could be more limited than in our baseline."
"Our central forecast is for EUR/USD to move towards levels that are more consistent with medium-term fundamentals, but we acknowledge that short-term volatility driven by data surprises and shifts in risk sentiment could be significant."
"Downside risks to our EUR/USD view include a renewed deterioration in Eurozone growth prospects, a resurgence of fragmentation concerns, or a scenario in which US growth remains persistently stronger than we currently project."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- UK inflation misses forecasts, forcing traders to trim BoE hike bets.
- US Retail Sales beat estimates, reinforcing the consumer resilience narrative.
- Fed dot plot and Warsh press conference to drive the next move.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats towards 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday following the latest UK inflation report, forcing investors to reassess hawkish bets on the Bank of England (BoE), while solid US Retail Sales boost the Greenback ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. The GBP/USD pair trades with losses of over 0.22%.
GBP/USD retreats as strong US sales revive Dollar momentum
Sentiment remains neutral, as US equity markets fluctuate between gains and losses, with traders awaiting the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. The US central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged and update its economic projections and the path of interest rates in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). After this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will hit the stand at his first press conference leading the Fed.
So far, traders have priced in a nearly 20% chance that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates towards the end of 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
In the meantime, US Retail Sales in May expanded by 0.9% MoM, exceeding estimates of a 0.5% increase, according to the US Census Bureau. Digging into the report, gas stations rose 3.4%, lifting the headline figure as gasoline prices jumped due to the Iran war. The data showed consumers' resilience, with 11 of 13 categories posting increases.
Across the pond, UK inflation steadied at 2.8% YoY in May, unchanged from April’s, below economists' estimates for a 3% jump. Speculation that the Bank of England would raise rates was trimmed. A week ago, the BoE was expected to tighten policy by 50 basis points (bps), but at the time of writing, money markets are pricing in a 30-bps tightening.
Ahead, traders eye the Fed’s policy decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference. In the UK, investors are waiting for the release of economic growth figures.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3397, keeping a soft tone as it hovers below a cluster of overhead levels. The pair is capped by the simple moving average around 1.3475 and trades beneath both the reclaimed upward trend-line break at 1.3432 and the broader downward resistance trend line coming in near 1.3551, suggesting rallies remain vulnerable. The Relative Strength Index (14) around the mid‑40s hints at fading momentum, reinforcing a cautious, mildly bearish bias while price holds under these reference levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the former upward support trendline break around 1.3432, with the simple moving average near 1.3475 forming the next hurdle and the downward resistance trendline at approximately 1.3551 acting as a more distant cap. With no clear structural support levels printed below the market in this dataset, any break under 1.3397 would leave the pair exposed to fresh downside exploration, keeping focus on how price reacts to the nearby resistance band overhead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.14% | 0.25% | -0.06% | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.09% | -0.28% | 0.10% | -0.21% | 0.13% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.26% | 0.05% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.36% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.35% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.25% | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.38% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.21% | 0.26% | -0.07% | 0.31% | 0.32% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.35% | -0.01% | -0.32% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.22% | -0.14% | 0.25% | -0.08% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD trades with a neutral tone as improved risk sentiment supports the Australian Dollar.
- Trump’s comments on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz helped ease market concerns.
- Investors await the first Fed decision under Kevin Warsh, with rates expected to remain unchanged.
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7070 with a neutral tone on Wednesday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from improved risk sentiment following the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict.
Market mood improved partially after United States (US) President Donald Trump defended the ceasefire framework with Iran, saying the Strait of Hormuz had reopened but warning that bombing could resume if Tehran “acts up.”
Shipping data showed that several Iranian oil tankers had passed through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran framework deal, adding to expectations that Middle East supply could return to the market. The prospect of lower energy prices supported risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie, although uncertainty remains high.
Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June policy decision. The first Fed meeting led by Kevin Warsh is expected to end with interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range as policymakers continue to balance easing Oil-related inflation against still-elevated headline inflation and solid US economic activity.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7070. The pair holds a mild bullish bias, trading above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7064 but capped by the 100-period SMA at 0.7101. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at steady, rather than impulsive, upside momentum as price grinds higher within a tight range.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the temporary range high around 0.7074, with the 100-period SMA at 0.7101 acting as the next key hurdle if buyers extend the move. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.7065, reinforced by the clustering of the 20-period SMA at 0.7064 and additional horizontal levels at 0.7058 and 0.7054, where a break would expose a deeper corrective pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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