Forex News
- Silver dives from all-time highs near $86.00 to levels below $75.00.
- Higher hopes of a peace deal in Ukraine are weighing on precious metals.
- Growing tensions between China and Taidan might limit Silver's reversal.
Silver (XAG/USD) has lost more than $10 since hitting a fresh record high near $86.00 on Monday’s early trading. The precious metal has retreated to levels in the $74.00 area at the time of writing, weighed by comments by US President Trump about the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump appeared at a news conference, together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, late Sunday, and said that he thinks that peace in Ukraine is “a lot closer,” although he acknowledged that thorny issues remain.
Meanwhile, China has announced “major” military exercises around Taiwan, and Taipei affirmed that several Chinese vessels have been seen near Taiwan’s territorial waters. A further escalation of tensions in an already sensitive area, which might limit the current reversal of precious metals.
Technical Analysis: Silver corrects from overbought levels
In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $74.92, approaching the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), at the $74.00 area, which is providing support and highlights the broader bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.79, near neutral levels, after unwinding from overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns lower toward the zero line after recent highs, suggesting waning upside momentum.
Below the mentioned 21-day SMA, the next support levels are seen at $72.60, where the pair was capped on December 24, and the area between $69.60 and $70.20, where the 50-period SMA converges with the December 24 low and the December 22 high.
To the upside, the $80.00 psychological level is likely to check the strength of a potential bullish reversal, ahead of the all-time high, at $85.87 hit earlier on the day.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
(This story was corrected on December 29 at 09:50 GMT as the name of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was misspelled in the headline.)
- WTI advances on supply risks amid possible delays to a Ukraine peace deal.
- President Trump said the Ukraine peace talks made progress, but no territorial breakthrough.
- China said it plans to increase fiscal spending in 2026, signaling ongoing support for growth that could lift Oil demand.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price rebounds after registering 2.5% losses in the previous session, trading around $57.30 per barrel during the European hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices rise as investors weigh the risk of a global supply glut amid potential delays to a Ukraine peace deal.
US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy are going to talk this weekend. Bloomberg reported Sunday that President Trump said he had made “a lot of progress” in discussions with Zelenskiy, though he noted no clear breakthrough on territorial issues and said a deal could still take several weeks.
Oil prices extend gains amid ongoing Middle East tensions, with Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran’s “full-scale war” rhetoric against the United States (US), Europe, and Israel raising supply disruption risks.
Reuters cited IG analyst Tony Sycamore, who said traders are watching US enforcement against Venezuelan oil shipments and potential fallout from US strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria, which produces about 1.5 million barrels per day.
China said it plans to increase fiscal spending in 2026, signaling ongoing support for growth that could lift Oil demand. However, crude remains on course for a decline of over 20% this year, its sharpest annual drop since 2020, amid expectations of a global surplus next year.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD rises to near 1.3700 as the Canadian Dollar faces slight selling pressure.
- The BoC remains uncertain over further monetary policy adjustments in the near term.
- Investors await the release of the FOMC minutes scheduled for Tuesday.
The USD/CAD pair trades 0.18% higher to near 1.3700 during the European trading session on Monday. The Loonie pair gains as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under pressure amid thin liquidity in markets at the start of a holiday-shortened week.
Broadly, the CAD has been outperforming its peers amid expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will not cut interest rates in early 2026. The BoC is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, as the inflation in Canada has remained slightly above the 2% target in the last three months.
Last week, the BoC monetary policy minutes also showed that officials agreed the “current stance is appropriate” and stated that it is “difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next rate move”, but they stand ready “to respond if the outlook changes materially”.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades with caution ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the December meeting on Tuesday. In the policy, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat near 98.00. The DXY is close to its 12-week low of 97.75 posted last week.
USD/CAD technical analysis
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3692. The pair remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3786, which slopes lower and continues to cap rebounds, preserving a bearish bias.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.69 is near oversold and has ticked higher from recent lows, signaling fading selling pressure. Measured from the 1.3540 low to the 1.4139 high, the 78.6% retracement at 1.3668 offers nearby support amid the pullback.
A bounce from 1.3668 could lift the pair toward the 61.8% retracement at 1.3769, while the 20-day EMA at 1.3786 would act as an additional hurdle. Failure to hold 1.3668 would keep bears in control, with momentum constrained by a sub-50 RSI, until a daily close back above the moving average improves tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bank of Canada FAQs
The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.
- GBP/JPY retreats from long-term highs near 211.60 amid a broad-based Yen recovery.
- Concerns about a BoJ intervention are keeping yen bears in check.
- The broader GBP/JPY trend remained positive, with pullbacks finding buyers so far.
The Yen is trimming recent losses against its main peers on Monday, which has triggered a nearly 100-pip reversal on the GBP/JPY. The pair is trading near 210.50 at the time of writing after pulling back from session highs at 211.43.
The Japanese Yen depreciated further last week as investors pondered the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate hike, amid growing concerns about the impact of Prime Minister Takaichi’s expansive policies on the country's already strained accounts.
Takaichi’s Finance Minister Satsuki Takayama launched the strongest warning to date last week. Takayama observed that Yen moves are not reflecting fundamentals and reiterated that Tokyo will take appropriate measures against Yen speculation. The thin trading volumes this week provide a good opportunity to step in for the Japanese authorities.
Technical analysis: Bears aim for 210.05 and 208.90 support areas
The 4-hour chart shows the GBP/JPY trading at 210.49, following another rejection at the long-term highs in the 211.50 - 211.60 area. The broader trend remains positive, with price action well above the trend line from 198.94 lows, which is offering support near 209.27. Immediate support stands at 210.05 (December 24 low), and at the mid-December highs, around 208.90.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below the Signal line and under the zero mark, with the histogram widening on the negative side, suggesting bearish momentum is building. The Relative Strength Index (14) has eased to 48.03, neutral after shedding overbought readings.
To the upside, above the mentioned long-term high, at 211.59 (December 22 high), the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the December 15 to December 22 rally, at 212.75, and the 161.8% extension of the same cycle, at 214.38, are plausible targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | 0.10% | -0.16% | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.30% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.13% | -0.13% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.33% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.02% | 0.20% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.45% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.01% | 0.21% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.25% | 0.00% | 0.22% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.33% | -0.20% | -0.45% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.10% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.07% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY may rebound toward the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 156.19.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index has eased to a neutral 52.80 from recent higher levels.
- The initial support lies at the upside trendline around 155.10.
USD/JPY retraces its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 156.10 during the European hours on Monday. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 52.80 (neutral) after easing from recent readings. A turn higher in RSI would strengthen bullish conviction, while a drift toward 50 would keep range-bound conditions in place.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises, supporting the broader uptrend. The nine-day EMA is flat with price hovering around it, pointing to near-term consolidation. The setup keeps a modest bullish bias while above the rising 50-day EMA.
Upside momentum would re-accelerate on a daily close above the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 156.19, opening the path toward the next resistance around the 11-month high of 157.90. Further advances would support the USD/JPY pair to test the 158.88, the highest since July 2024.
On the downside, a rejection at the nine-day EMA and a break beneath the nearest support at the upside trendline around 155.10 would shift focus to the secondary floor and risk a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA at 154.72.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.14% | -0.20% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.37% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.15% | -0.18% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.35% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.32% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.22% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.36% | 0.38% | 0.55% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.04% | -0.36% | 0.00% | 0.19% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.03% | -0.38% | -0.00% | 0.18% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.37% | -0.35% | -0.22% | -0.55% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.39% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.17% | -0.11% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- EUR/GBP weakens as the Pound Sterling strengthens on a cautious BoE policy outlook.
- The BoE is expected to ease gradually but sees limited room for further cuts near neutral rates.
- The Euro could find support as signals suggest the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle has ended.
EUR/GBP inches lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8720 during the early European hours on Monday. The currency cross depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gains on a cautious tone surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that interest rates are expected to ease further in a gradual manner, but cautioned that the scope for additional cuts is limited as rates approach their neutral level. Any moves beyond the latest cut are likely to be finely balanced and strongly driven by incoming data.
The BoE lowered the policy rate by 25 bpp to 3.75% in December, with a close 5–4 vote highlighting persistent inflation concerns. While inflation cooled to 3.2% in November, it remains well above the BoE’s 2% target. UK GDP expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter, meeting expectations, but the BoE projects flat growth in the final quarter.
However, the EUR/GBP cross could gain ground as the Euro (EUR) may receive support from signals that the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut cycle has ended. Traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold interest rates steady for some time. The money markets have priced in a 25 bps interest rate cut by the ECB in February 2026, currently remaining below 10%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the central bank cannot provide forward guidance on future rate moves due to high uncertainty, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- EUR/JPY weakens to near 183.80 in Monday’s early European session.
- BoJ policymakers debated the need for more rate hikes even after the December move.
- Expectations that the current cycle of ECB interest rate cuts is coming to an end might cap the EUR’s downside.
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 183.80 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from the December policy meeting reinforced expectations of continued tightening in 2026.
The BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.50% at its December policy meeting. A summary of opinions released early Monday showed that some board members see the need for further rate increases in the near future. This, in turn, provides some support to the JPY and acts as a headwind for the cross. Members also stated that the weaker JPY and rising long-term interest rates were due in part to the BoJ's policy rate being too low relative to inflation.
On the Euro’s front, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady earlier this month and hinted they would likely remain so for some time. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the central bank cannot provide forward guidance on future rate moves due to high uncertainty, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
The money markets have priced in for a 25 bps interest rate cut by the ECB in February 2026, currently remaining below 10%. Signals that the ECB rate cut cycle is ending might help limit the EUR’s losses in the near term.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 29:
While major currency pairs remain relatively quiet ahead of the New Year holiday, Gold and Silver experience sharp fluctuations to start the week. Pending Home Sales for November will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar on Monday.
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.41% | -1.89% | 0.08% | -2.14% | -2.47% | -1.48% | -1.72% | |
| EUR | 1.41% | -0.48% | 1.53% | -0.74% | -1.07% | -0.07% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 1.89% | 0.48% | 2.28% | -0.26% | -0.59% | 0.41% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -1.53% | -2.28% | -2.25% | -2.57% | -1.59% | -1.87% | |
| CAD | 2.14% | 0.74% | 0.26% | 2.25% | -0.40% | 0.67% | 0.43% | |
| AUD | 2.47% | 1.07% | 0.59% | 2.57% | 0.40% | 1.01% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | 1.48% | 0.07% | -0.41% | 1.59% | -0.67% | -1.01% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 1.72% | 0.31% | -0.17% | 1.87% | -0.43% | -0.76% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Following the Christmas break, Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) climbed higher and set new all-time highs on Friday. With trading volumes somewhat normalizing and profit-taking kicking into gear, both pairs turn south on Monday. At the time of press, Gold was trading at $4,495 and losing about 1% on the day, while Silver was down 1.5% at $78.15.
In the meantime, US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that they made "a lot of progress" in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over a possible peace deal but noted that there is no apparent breakthrough on the flashpoint issue of territory and that it might take a few weeks to get it done. After posting marginal losses on Friday, the US Dollar (USD) Index moves sideways in a tight range above 98.00 early Monday. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of its December policy meeting.
In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the December monetary policy meeting. The publication showed that some policymakers are in favor of continuing to hike the policy rate, citing inflation concerns and the need to avoid staying behind the curve. After losing more than 0.7% in the previous week, USD/JPY stays under modest bearish pressure early Monday and trades below 156.50.
EUR/USD closed two consecutive trading days in negative territory to end the previous week. The pair stays on the back foot in the European morning on Monday and declines toward 1.1750.
GBP/USD gained nearly 1% last week and registered its highest weekly close since early September. The pair remains relatively quiet on Monday and trades in a narrow channel below 1.3500.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Australian Dollar reached a 14-month high of 0.6727 on Monday.
- The AUD gains support as expectations grow for RBA interest rate hikes.
- Traders await Tuesday’s FOMC December Meeting Minutes for insight into the Fed’s 2026 outlook.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rises against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a 14-month high of 0.6727 on Monday. The AUD/USD pair strengthens as the Aussie Dollar finds support amid growing expectations of interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The RBA’s December Meeting Minutes indicated that board members are becoming less confident that monetary policy remains sufficiently restrictive. The minutes also indicated the board is prepared to tighten policy if inflation does not ease as anticipated, putting the spotlight on the fourth-quarter CPI report due January 28. Analysts say that a stronger-than-expected Q4 core inflation print could prompt a rate hike at the RBA’s February 3 meeting.
Bloomberg reported Sunday that China’s Ministry of Finance plans to expand targeted investment in priority sectors, including advanced manufacturing, technological innovation, and human capital development. The announcement followed a year-end meeting outlining next year’s fiscal policy priorities. Any impact on China’s economy could affect the AUD, given Australia’s close trade ties with China.
China launched the “Justice Mission 2025” drills on Monday, simulating a blockade around Taiwan, according to China Daily, citing Senior Colonel Shi Yi of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command. The exercises underscore ongoing geopolitical risk in Asia, keeping markets alert to potential spillovers into shipping, semiconductors, and regional FX if the drills are prolonged or repeated.
US Dollar advances despite ongoing odds of more Fed rate cuts
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, has recovered its daily losses and is trading around 98.10 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback could face challenges amid ongoing expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Traders are likely to focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes due on Tuesday.
- The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amid a cooling labor market and still-elevated inflation.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows an 81.7% probability of rates being held at the Fed’s January meeting, up from 77.9% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has fallen to 18.3% from 22.1% a week ago.
- US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 214K from 224K in the prior week, beating the 223K market forecast. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.923 million from 1.885 million, while the four-week average of Initial Claims edged lower to 216.75K from 217.5K.
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released delayed data showing that preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded 4.3% in the July–September period. The reading exceeded market expectations of a 3.3% increase and surpassed the 3.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
- Australia’s headline inflation rose to 3.8% in October 2025 from 3.6% in September, remaining above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in a rate hike as early as February 2026, with both the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank projecting a rise to 3.85% at the RBA’s first policy meeting of the year.
- Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.7% in December from November’s three-month low of 4.5%, supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.
Australian Dollar reaches new 14-month highs above 0.6700
AUD/USD is hovering around 0.6720 on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias. The pair holds above a rising nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), preserving the short-term uptrend. The average continues to advance, keeping a bullish bias in place. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.24 (overbought) signals strong momentum but stretched conditions.
The immediate resistance aligns at 0.6727, the highest since October 2024, while the daily tone stays positive above the moving average. A break above this level would support the AUD/USD pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6830.
Failure to clear the nearby cap could prompt a pause or a dip toward the nine-day EMA at 0.6683, followed by the lower ascending channel boundary around 0.6660. A break below the channel would expose the six-month low near 0.6414, marked on August 21.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.09% | -0.14% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.26% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.23% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.26% | 0.23% | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.36% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.18% | -0.04% | 0.18% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.36% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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