Forex News
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its exchange rate policy in April by slightly increasing the slope of the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) band, becoming the first Asia-ex-Japan central bank to tighten policy after the Iran conflict. MAS raised both headline and core inflation forecasts while downgrading its growth outlook, and MUFG highlights that future moves will hinge on inflation and output gap surprises.
MAS shift underpins Singapore Dollar outlook
"The Singapore central bank tightened its exchange rate policy in its April meeting by raising slightly the slope of its policy band, while keeping the width and level at which it is centered unchanged."
"In its policy statement, MAS raised its inflation forecasts to 1.5-2.5% from 1-2% previously for both headline and MAS core inflation, while lowered its assessment of growth."
"In particular, MAS said that GDP growth in 2026 as a whole is likely to step down from the above trend pace recorded in 2025, and that concomitantly the positive output gap will narrow to around zero percent."
"Overall, the MAS highlighted the highly uncertain impact of the Middle East conflict on both growth and inflation, even as its assessment is that energy supply shocks are likely to remain persistent in different scenarios and as such continue to push up input costs in the months and quarters ahead."
"The next move as such is likely to depend on any upside or downside surprises to MAS’ inflation and output gap assessments."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold jumps as renewed US-Iran talks hopes weaken the Dollar sharply.
- Falling Oil prices and improved sentiment underpin the metal’s rally.
- Traders now eye Fed speeches, Beige Book and jobless claims.
Gold (XAU/USD) price surges nearly 2% on Tuesday amid growing optimism linked to the resumption of US-Iran talks, even though the US military seized Iran-linked ships as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists. The XAU/USD trades at $4,835 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,742.
Bullion rallies as softer Oil and Dollar lift haven demand
Geopolitical news continued to drive the markets, with US President Donald Trump grabbing the headlines and hinting at a possible meeting between Washington and Tehran this week. He told the New York Post, “You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there.”
The Greenback remains on the back foot due to its safe-haven appeal. The markets are pricing in a possible de-escalation of the conflict, as the buck has fallen to a six-week low at 97.96, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). In the session, the DXY is down 0.26%, also dragged down by Oil prices.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark and a dollar-denominated asset, tanks nearly 6.40% to $91.72 per barrel. The positive correlation between WTI and the DXY, along with the improvement in risk appetite, is the catalyst behind the rise in bullion prices.
The US economic docket featured Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, jobs, and inflation data. Regarding the US central bank, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said they might hold rates steady this year and look for rate cuts in 2027 if energy prices remain high due to the Iran war.
The Federal Reserve may need to wait until 2027 to cut interest rates if an extended bout of high Oil prices from the Iran war delays inflation’s progress towards the US central bank’s 2% goal, Goolsbee said.
Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that he expects inflation to be closer to target in a year, adding that he sees no reason for oil prices to remain elevated.
Inflationary fears have pushed investors to trim their bets on the Fed’s dovish stance, and now money markets are speculating that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady throughout the year, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT).
Fed interest rate probabilities
On the data front, the US PPI figures undershot forecasts in March, with headline inflation rising 4% YoY, below the expected 4.6%, while core PPI remained unchanged from February’s at 3.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, the ADP four-week average climbed to 39.25K from 26K, reinforcing the narrative of a still-resilient labor market.
Traders’ eyes will be on developments in the Middle East conflict. Data-wise, the US economic docket will feature speeches by Fed officials, the release of the Fed Beige Book, and Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold rally, on its way towards $4,900
Gold’s uptrend accelerated past the $4,800 mark with traders facing strong resistance at $4,857, the April 8 daily high, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,896.
Price action suggests that Gold is trading at four-day highs, an indication that buyers are gaining traction, as confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned bullish two days ago.
If XAU/USD extends its gains past $4,900, the $5,000 milestone is up for grabs. Otherwise, if bullion tumbles below the $4,800 mark, a potential move to the confluence of the 100- and 20-day SMAs, each at $ 4,677 and $ 4,650, is possible.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Societe Generale analysts highlight that CNY strength has resumed, with USD/CNY nearing 6.80 for the first time in three years as China-linked tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz. They argue the Yuan is acting as a regional safe haven, supported by China’s energy resilience and policy backing, even as domestic credit growth slows and 10-year CGB yields slip below 1.79%.
Yuan benefits from regional safe-haven bid
"The CNY rally resumes with 6.80 in touching distance for the first time in three years as Chinese linked tanker transits SoH – the yuan has increasingly taken on a regional safe-haven role, supported by China’s energy resilience, policy backing and limited exposure to the Middle East conflict."
"This safe-haven dynamic extends beyond the currency: both onshore equities and bonds are behaving defensively."
"Notably, the 90-day correlation between the CSI 300 and Bloomberg China Treasury Total Return Index turned positive in mid-March, signalling the two asset classes are moving in tandem and outperforming Western and regional peers during bouts of risk aversion."
"Meanwhile, China’s credit data out yesterday was disappointing with outstanding credit growth slowing to 7.9% yoy, the weakest since November 2024."
"The 10y CGB yield has drifted below 1.79% (200dma) and with sentiment already fragile, CGBs could attract further bids if 1Q GDP and activity prints disappoint tomorrow."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 15:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.10 region, reaching multi-week lows as softer inflation data and improving global sentiment led to a broad sell-off of the Greenback. Declining Oil prices and easing yields further contributed to the downward pressure. Optimism surrounding potential negotiations between the United States and Iran has sparked a widespread risk-on move, decreasing demand for safe-haven assets and causing the Greenback to decline.
Meanwhile, the United States (US) economic data presented a mixed but ultimately negative signal. The Producer Price Index (PPI) held steady at 3.8%YoY in March, matching the previous report’s figure, reinforcing the notion that inflation pressures, excluding energy, are not accelerating as feared.
Additionally, labor market dynamics indicated resilience rather than weakness. The 4-week average of ADP Employment Change rose to around 39K from 26K, highlighting a steady underlying jobs trend and suggesting that the US economy is not sharply deteriorating despite geopolitical tensions.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.29% | -0.43% | -0.43% | -0.15% | -0.44% | -0.62% | -0.35% | |
| EUR | 0.29% | -0.14% | -0.13% | 0.15% | -0.15% | -0.34% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.30% | -0.02% | -0.19% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -0.19% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.15% | -0.30% | -0.29% | -0.30% | -0.46% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.44% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.30% | -0.17% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.62% | 0.34% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.46% | 0.17% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.35% | 0.08% | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.20% | -0.07% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rallied above 1.1790, supported by sustained USD weakness and improving risk appetite. The pair is benefiting from the de-escalation narrative and expectations that US inflation may not force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten further.
GBP/USD moved higher toward 1.3570. The Sterling is riding the USD downtrend, although gains remain somewhat cautious as global growth risks tied to the Iran war persist.
USD/JPY fell sharply toward the 158.80 region, driven by a weaker USD and a firmer Japanese Yen (JPY), with additional support coming from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could revise its inflation outlook higher and continue policy normalization.
AUD/USD climbed toward recent highs at 0.7130 as the risk-on tone dominated markets. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is benefiting from improved sentiment and falling Oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices declined notably, dropping below the $91.65 per barrel range as markets priced in a potential easing of supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. The move reflects optimism around negotiations despite the still fragile situation.
Gold remains supported but lacks strong upside momentum at $4,836. A weaker USD is providing a floor, but easing geopolitical fears and falling Oil prices are limiting further gains.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, April 15:
- US IMF Meeting
- France CPI March
- Eurozone Industrial Production February
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index April
- US Fed Beige Book
Thursday, April 16:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Employment Change March
- AU Unemployment Rate March
- CN GDP Q1
- CN Industrial Production March
- CN Retail Sales March
- UK GDP February
- UK Industrial Production February
- UK Manufacturing Production February
- Italian CPIs March
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
- US Industrial Production March
Friday, April 17:
- US IMF Meeting
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
UOB’s Jester Koh highlights that MAS raised its 2026 core and headline inflation forecast ranges to 1.5–2.5% as imported energy costs surge. He stresses that higher Oil and gas prices will pass through to Singapore’s CPI via electricity, transport and goods. UOB has lifted its own 2026 inflation forecasts and sees risks tilted to the upside.
Higher energy costs lift inflation outlook
"On inflation, MAS raised both its 2026 core and headline inflation forecast ranges to 1.5–2.5%, from 1.0–2.0% in the Jan 2026 MPS. The policy statement also conveyed a greater degree of confidence in the inflation outlook than in growth."
"MAS noted that “even if supplies from the Middle East are restored, global energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time,” as deliveries will be lagged, supply will take time to recover fully, and government efforts to rebuild energy reserves will add to pent-up demand. As a result, “prices for Singapore’s imported intermediate and final consumer goods” are forecast to rise."
"We have previously raised our 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.0% (from 1.5%; 2027F: 2.2%) and core inflation to 1.9% (from 1.5%; 2027F: 1.9%), and noted that risks remain tilted to the upside. Spillover effects from higher utility, transport, and input costs on both goods and services inflation are likely to be meaningful."
"Under our baseline assumptions, we expect MAS to tighten monetary policy further at the Oct 2026 MPS via a 50 bps S$NEER band slope steepening to 1.5% p.a., with risks that the move could be brought forward to the Jul 2026 MPS."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD rises to one-month highs on Tuesday as the US Dollar weakens.
- US-Iran talks optimism and softer US PPI weigh on the Greenback.
- Hawkish RBA outlook and bullish technical setup support the pair.
AUD/USD trades with a mild positive bias on Tuesday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as renewed hopes of US-Iran talks weigh on the Greenback and lift demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7132, its highest level since March 12.
Investors remain optimistic that the United States (US) and Iran could still reach an agreement, which has pushed Oil prices lower, easing immediate inflation risks and reducing pressure on central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data has added to the downside pressure on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.00, its lowest level since March 2.
In contrast, a relatively hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), amid still-sticky inflation, continues to provide underlying support to the Australian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a broader bullish structure in AUD/USD, with prices breaking back above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after bouncing from the March low near 0.6833, which closely aligns with the 100-day SMA.
The 50-day SMA near 0.7033 is turning higher and remains comfortably above the 100-day SMA near 0.6874, reinforcing a constructive medium-term trend and keeping the broader uptrend intact.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 leans into bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned higher and crossed above the zero line, with histogram bars also turning positive, suggesting buyers remain in control.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day SMA near 0.7033. This level is particularly important as it sits just above the 0.7000 psychological mark, forming a near-term support cluster. A break below this zone could expose the latest breakout area around 0.6920, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6874.
On the upside, buyers are eyeing a break above the 0.7150-0.7170 zone, which has capped gains since early February. A sustained move above this barrier could open the door toward the 0.7200 psychological level and beyond.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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