Forex News
- USD/JPY flatlines near 161.75 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Intervention warnings from Japanese officials could underpin the Japanese Yen.
- Market expectations of a US rate hike have increased since the Fed's policy announcement last week.
The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near a multi-decade high of around 161.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The potential upside for the pair might be limited amid heavy speculation of imminent currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent agreed to take steps on currencies if necessary. This development has fueled intense market speculation regarding a joint US-Japan currency intervention, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creating a headwind for the pair. Also, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed.
On the other hand, hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could lift the Greenback. The Fed decided to hold its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.50% and 3.75% at its June policy meeting. Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference as chairman, said during the press conference that “price stability” would be the Fed’s guiding principle.
Markets are now pricing in a 34.2% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, and 66.4% for September, up from 29.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1355 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Traders have ramped up bets of a US rate hike by September.
- The US PCE Price Index report for May will be in the spotlight on Thursday.
The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar (USD) as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday.
Traders brace for anticipated interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year since new Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a focus on inflation as the overall economy appears to be on a stable footing. Markets are now pricing in a 34.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, and 66.4% for September, up from 29.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"The dollar's strength right now, at the end of the day, it's still hawkishness, if you look at Fed expectations with Fed funds futures right now, they are some of the highest odds that we've seen in a while," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in Stamford, Connecticut.
Traders will take more cues from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for May on Thursday. The headline PCE is expected to show a rise of 4.1% YoY in May, compared to 3.8% in April. The core CPE inflation is projected to rise to 3.4% YoY in May, up from 3.3% in April.
Easing tensions between the US and Iran helps to cool oil prices and raise expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn more dovish. This, in turn, could drag the shared currency in the near term. The ECB decided to raise the key interest rates by 25 bps earlier this month. The central bank hikes interest rates despite a slowing economy to combat surging inflation triggered by the oil price shock amid the Iran war.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold price slumps to a seven-month low near $3,995 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Growing expectations of US interest rate hikes exert some selling pressure on the Gold price.
- The US May PCE inflation report will take center stage later on Thursday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to around $3,995 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends the decline to below the $4,000 psychological level for the first time since November 2025 on the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger US Dollar (USD). All eyes will be on the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will be published on Thursday.
Traders have ramped up bets on US interest rate hikes this year after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered hawkish messages at its June policy meeting and as fears of inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war persist. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Markets are now pricing in a 34.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, and 66.4% for September, up from 29.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“Gold is clearly trading in sympathy with market expectation on rate rising in the US,” as a focus on inflation by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened expectations of a more hawkish central bank, said Darwei Kung, head of commodities at DWS Group.
Traders brace for the US May PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, later on Thursday for more clues about the monetary policy outlook. Any signs of easing inflation in the US could weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/JPY breaks below 100-day SMA, confirming bearish technical shift.
- RSI turns lower as sellers target 183.00 support zone.
- Break below 183.00 exposes 200-day SMA and 180.81 low.
The Euro retreated on Wednesday against the Japanese Yen, down 0.08% amid growing speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange markets and also inflation in the producer side in Japan, exceeded estimates above the 3% threshold. The EUR/JPY cross-pair trades at 183.70 after reaching a daily high of 183.92.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows that bears are in charge. The EUR/JPY fell from around weekly highs near the 50-day SMA at 185.32 to current spot prices, diving below the 100-day SMA at 184.60, which exacerbated the drop below 184.00.
Momentum clearly shifted bearish as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the EUR/JPY dives below 183.00, it would expose the 200-day SMA at 182.36. Once cleared, the next area of interest would be the latest cycle low of 180.81, the February 12 swing low.
Upwards, the chances are capped due to intervention fears. If EUR/JPY clears 184.00, it will expose the 100-day SMA, followed by 185.00. Above this area sits the 50-day SMA, followed by the June 17 daily high of 186.32.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.29% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.41% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | 0.08% | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.08% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.28% | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.16% | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.20% | -0.08% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.20% | -0.02% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD extended its decline on Wednesday and closed just above fresh lows for the move.
- Every attempt at a bullish turn has failed, with price stuck well below its key moving averages.
- A leadership vacuum at home and a bare data calendar leave Sterling at the mercy of a firmer Dollar and Thursday's US Core PCE.
GBP/USD spent Wednesday confirming what the daily chart has signalled for a week, that the Pound's attempted recovery has run out of road. Cable drifted lower through the session to a low just under 1.3150 before clawing back a little into the close, settling just above fresh lows for the move. The pressure is all on the Dollar, lifted broadly by a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has turned hawkish, and nothing on the UK side has been able to stand in its way.
The chart has already made the call
The daily chart is unambiguous, and not flattering. Price has broken below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA, which have converged almost exactly near the 1.3400 handle and now form a single thick band of resistance roughly 225 pips overhead. Beneath that wall there is little obvious support before the 1.3000 handle. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits only mid-range, nowhere near oversold, so the chart has room to extend lower before anything looks stretched.
A hawkish hold that bought Sterling nothing
Sterling's deeper problem is that even a hawkish central bank has not stemmed the slide. The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady last week, with two of its nine members voting for a hike, the sort of result that normally puts a floor under a currency. The Pound slid anyway, and with the next BoE decision not due until late July and only a couple of policymaker speeches this week, no fresh domestic catalyst is coming.
Westminster offers a vacuum, not a backstop
On top of that sits a political vacuum the market has learned to charge for. Keir Starmer's resignation has left a caretaker government in charge while Labour runs a leadership contest set to grind through the summer, with Andy Burnham the clear favourite to succeed him before Parliament returns in September. Until that resolves, no one is positioned to act decisively on the economy or the currency, and the uncertainty keeps a risk premium stapled to Sterling that a firm Dollar is happy to press.
Thursday's number is the only mover left
The only release heavy enough to move the pair this week is American, not British. Thursday at 12:30 GMT brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, with consensus at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, both a touch above the prior month. A firm number feeds straight into the hawkish Dollar trade and likely drags Cable toward the 1.3000 handle. With no domestic data to lean against, the risk is skewed lower, and only a soft print offers Sterling any relief.
Levels to watch
Resistance: The 1.3200 handle caps the immediate upside, and the converged moving averages near 1.3400 form the ceiling any genuine recovery would have to break first; nothing between the two argues for it.
Support: The 1.3150 area is the first shelf, with 1.3100 beneath it and the 1.3000 handle the obvious magnet should Thursday's data cooperate.
Bias: Lower. A broken chart, a firmer Dollar and a Britain offering neither a fresh catalyst nor a settled government leave Sterling nothing to rally on; a hawkish BoE hold already failed to change that. Rallies are for selling until price reclaims its moving averages.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY extended its grind higher on Wednesday, closing within touching distance of its highest level in more than three decades.
- A BoJ rate hike has failed to lift the Yen, out-hawked by a firmer Fed on the other side.
- Thursday delivers US Core PCE and Tokyo CPI back to back, the only catalysts left this week.
USD/JPY spent Wednesday grinding higher again, which by rights should not be happening. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate only last week, and a hike is meant to put a floor under a currency, not watch it slide toward generational lows. That the Yen keeps sinking regardless points straight at the Dollar side, where a Federal Reserve (Fed) that has just turned more hawkish is holding the rate gap brutally wide.
The gap swallowed the hike
The BoJ did its part, lifting rates to a 30-year high of 1.00%, but the market had long priced it in and the move bought the Yen nothing lasting. The reason is pure arithmetic: with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding near 3.75% and its dot plot now flagging a hike rather than a cut, the gap between the two policy rates still sits near 275 basis points. At that spread a quarter-point from Tokyo barely dents the carry trade, and the Yen's direction stays set in Washington.
What a hike could not do, Yentervention might
That the hike failed to help is precisely why the next risk to the trade is not monetary but political. With the BoJ unwilling to sprint and its rate move already shrugged off, the finance ministry becomes the only actor capable of jolting the pair, and with the Yen at its weakest in a generation, its warnings about disorderly moves are growing louder. The carry trade keeps looking like free money right up until Tokyo reaches for Yentervention. Every step higher only sharpens that asymmetry.
Thursday's double bill
The week comes down to Thursday, and it lands in two parts. At 12:30 GMT the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) prints, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with consensus at 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY, each a tick above the prior month. A hot number widens the gap that is already doing the damage and likely pushes the pair through 162.00; only a clear miss looks able to stall it.
The second leg comes at 23:30 GMT with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), which now reads differently after last week's move. A soft print near the recent 1.4% headline would tell the market the BoJ is in no rush to hike again, and even another move might not matter much, given how little the last one changed for the Yen.
Levels to watch
Resistance: The 162.00 handle is the immediate cap; a clean break opens room toward 163.00 with little in the way, though every leg higher stiffens the case for intervention.
Support: A pullback finds first footing near 161.50, with 161.00 below it; only a slide toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 159.50 would suggest the uptrend is finally tiring.
Bias: Higher. A hawkish Fed, a punishing rate gap and an uptrend that just shrugged off a BoJ hike all point the same way. The clearest threat to the long side is not the chart or the central bank but the finance ministry.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- USD/CHF refreshes YTD highs as rally extends six days.
- RSI enters overbought territory, signaling powerful bullish momentum persists.
- Break above 0.8200 exposes 0.8215 and 0.8300 resistance.
The USD/CHF extends its rally for the third straight day this week and refreshes year-to-date (YTD) highs, peaking at 0.8139, which is also an 11-month high. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8124, up 0.34%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF has been rallying for six days, and if it closes Wednesday’s session above 0.8100, bulls could reach the 0.8200 level rather sooner than later.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the pair is overbought, but it is short of the 80 level, considered the most extreme. When RSI is between 70 and 80, the uptrend is at its strongest; hence, readings above 80 are most precise for indicating market tops.
If USD/CHF clears 0.8200, the next resistance would be the June 19, 2025, daily high at 0.8215, ahead of 0.8250. A breach of the latter will expose 0.8300. On the other hand, if bears drive the pair below 0.8100, the next support would be the March 31 swing high of 0.8042. Below this level is 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.93% | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.47% | 1.58% | 1.69% | 0.60% | |
| EUR | -0.93% | -0.73% | -0.61% | -0.41% | 0.69% | 0.77% | -0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.73% | -0.13% | 0.26% | 1.38% | 1.36% | 0.38% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 1.29% | 1.27% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.47% | 0.41% | -0.26% | -0.13% | 1.16% | 1.20% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -1.58% | -0.69% | -1.38% | -1.29% | -1.16% | -0.03% | -0.94% | |
| NZD | -1.69% | -0.77% | -1.36% | -1.27% | -1.20% | 0.03% | -0.94% | |
| CHF | -0.60% | 0.32% | -0.38% | -0.28% | -0.11% | 0.94% | 0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/SGD has drifted higher on broad US Dollar (USD) strength and softer risk sentiment, with daily momentum bullish and Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought. Softer Singapore Consumer Price Index (CPI) and easing domestic cost pressures reduce urgency for MAS tightening in July, and they expect Singapore Dollar (SGD) to stay relatively resilient but sees USD/SGD supported if the strong Dollar environment persists.
MAS seen patient as pair consolidates
"USD/SGD drifted higher overnight amid broad USD strength while risk sentiment softened due to sell-off in tech/AI-linked equities. Pair was last seen at 1.2970. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose into overbought conditions."
"Consolidation near the upper range likely to persist for now. Resistance at 1.2980 (76.4% fibo), 1.3030 levels. Support at 1.29 (61.8% fibo retracement of Dec high to 2026 low), 1.2840/50 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo). "
"The recent CPI report saw May headline and core inflation printed softer-than-expected at 1.8% and 1.4% YoY respectively. They came in below our house view forecast of 1.9% and 1.5% YoY. Higher food and retail and other goods inflation was mostly offset by lower services inflation. "
"Our economists noted that domestic cost pressures are tapering off – services unit labour costs are likely to rise at a slower pace this year as the nominal manpower wage growth moderates from last year with the cooling labour market conditions, whilst domestic consumer spending could also turn more cautious amid the economic uncertainty and higher price environment."
"With core CPI undershooting expectations and global energy prices easing off, our house now see less urgency for MAS to tighten at the upcoming MPC in July if the core inflation trajectory eases into 1H27."
"While SGD may retain relative resilience (vs peers), the SGD is not immune to higher US Treasury yields/ firmer USD. A strong USD environment if sustained, may still keep USD/SGD supported in the interim."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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