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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees USD/CNH trading slightly higher within a developing range, with intraday levels expected between 6.7500 and 6.7620. On a 1–3 week horizon, the pair could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300 as long as 6.7640 holds as strong resistance. Medium term, a sustained recovery requires a break above the 21-week EMA near 6.8430.

Short-term range, gradual decline toward 6.7300

"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 6.7490 in the early Asian trade yesterday, we highlighted that “the current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase between 6.7420 and 6.7540.” However, USD traded in a higher range of 6.7467/6.7592. There has been a slight increase in upward momentum, but instead of a sustained advance, USD is more likely to trade between 6.7500 and 6.7620 today."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that while USD edged lower last week, “there has been no clear increase in downward momentum.” However, we were of the view that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300 as long as 6.7640 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Our view remains unchanged. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank analysts note that Vietnam’s July inflation eased to 4.5% year-on-year, keeping the average near the 4.5% target, while the trade deficit widened to USD 3.6 billion on strong import growth driven by energy and capital goods. Despite external headwinds and future CBAM-related risks for steel exports, USD/VND has stayed stable around 26,277, with VND slightly stronger year-to-date.

Inflation moderates as imports surge

"On trade, the July trade deficit widened to USD3.6bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD2.5bn) vs USD2.6bn in June, marking the eighth consecutive monthly deficit."

"Looking ahead, steel exports are expected to face headwinds from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and existing US anti-dumping measures on certain Vietnamese steel products."

"While the widening trade deficit bears watching, it largely reflects strong imports of capital goods, intermediate inputs and energy associated with expanding manufacturing capacity rather than weakening external competitiveness."

"FDI disbursements rose a further 11.8% yoy in the first seven months of 2026, suggesting investment momentum remains robust despite rising external headwinds."

"In FX, USD/VND rose 0.1% to 26,277 yesterday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• GBP/USD trades near 1.3450 on a session range of 36 pips.
• Pound takes 0.17% out of the Dollar, the Australian Dollar 0.68%.
• Next Bank of England decision is 17 September, six weeks away.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades near 1.3450 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, higher by 0.11% inside a session range of 36 pips, the second sub-40-pip day cable has produced inside a week. The pair holds above the 1.3400 handle that capped it through late July and above the moving average band it spent most of the month beneath, though the three sessions since that break have covered an envelope of barely 80 pips.

That reclaim reads as a Sterling story until the cross rates are checked. The Pound is flat against the Euro at -0.02% and the Swiss Franc at +0.06%, behind the Australian Dollar by 0.45% and the New Zealand Dollar by 0.20%, which is the performance profile of a currency being carried rather than one going anywhere on its own.

The Dollar did the work

Tuesday was a Dollar day rather than a Pound day, and not even a uniform one. The Dollar lost 0.68% to the Australian Dollar and 0.45% to the New Zealand Dollar while taking 0.15% from the Canadian Dollar and 0.36% from the Yen, which is the signature of a risk-on session rather than broad Dollar weakness.

The Pound extracted 0.17% from the Dollar on the day, roughly a quarter of what the Australian Dollar managed. What captured the move were the high-beta commodity currencies, lifted by an equity melt-up and the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The Pound is not one of them, and it had no domestic bid of its own to supply the difference.

The British side delivered and it did not matter

Domestic news flow over the past fortnight has been about as good as a Pound bull could order. The July flash services survey printed 51.8 against 49.4 expected, back above the expansion line after two months of contraction, with the composite at 52.1 against 49.7 and manufacturing output at a 22-month high.

The Bank of England then held the Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July with three members voting for a quarter-point rise to 4.00%, a hawkish minority that has widened at three consecutive meetings and came in one dissent above consensus. The Pound moved 0.08% on the announcement.

The Governor spent the press conference dismantling the hawkish read, telling the room directly not to conclude the Bank was edging toward a hike, and the two-year gilt yield fell seven basis points to around 4.38%. A survey beat of more than two points and the widest dissent bloc of the cycle together bought the currency less than a tenth of a percent.

The Committee's own reasoning explains why the domestic surveys carried so little. Its stated upside risk to inflation is the energy shock, which is being priced in the Persian Gulf rather than in Britain, and the Governor noted that headline inflation had already fallen faster than expected to 2.6%. On that framing, the Hormuz headline that lifted risk appetite on Tuesday is also the thing most likely to dismantle the hawkish minority before September.

Every catalyst this week is American

The British docket from here is close to empty. Wednesday's final July services reading is a revision to a flash that already beat by more than two points, the surveys that follow carry no rate implication, and the next Bank of England decision is September 17, with November and December behind it.

The American side carries three red-band releases in three days. A private payrolls estimate lands Wednesday at 12:15 GMT with a 70K consensus from 98K and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index follows at 14:00 GMT, 54.5 expected from 54. Nonfarm Payrolls arrive Friday at 12:30 GMT, consensus 80K from 57K, with unemployment seen holding at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at 0.3% MoM and 3.5% YoY.

Tuesday's American prints already leaned soft, with June job openings at 7.36 million against a 7.4 million consensus and factory orders down 0.3% against a 0.2% gain expected. Futures pricing captured at the end of July put at least one Fed hike near 59% by September with nothing priced for a cut at any 2026 meeting, so Friday decides the Dollar leg and the Dollar leg decides the pair.

Levels and bias

Upside: The three-session ceiling near 1.3500 is the first test, and the mid-July peak near 1.3550 is the level that would confirm the reclaim rather than merely register it. Above that, the May high near 1.3650 is the only structure left on the chart.

Downside: The 1.3400 handle is the line the whole rebound rests on, reinforced by the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) converged immediately beneath it. Losing that band reopens the late-July low just under 1.3280, with the summer base near 1.3150 the floor behind it.

Bias: Bullish while 1.3400 holds, objective 1.3550. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 24 and still falling is the one argument against, since momentum kept declining through the rebound, while the 5-minute reading near 73 says nothing beyond intraday drift. Invalidation is a daily close back beneath 1.3400, which returns the pair to the range it spent July failing to leave. Size the position against Friday rather than against anything in Britain.

GBP/USD daily chart

Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, August 5:

Oil prices extended their slide on Tuesday after reports that an announcement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could come within hours. Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, citing high-level sources, said communications are underway at full tilt, and that progress has been made, although no official confirmation has followed.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases around 0.10% and trades near 99.90 after softer-than-expected United States labor demand data. JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.359 million in June from 7.537 million, missing the 7.4 million forecast and pointing to a further loosening in hiring appetite. Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said underlying inflation remains too high and that policy needs to stay mildly restrictive, adding that current settings likely meet that description.

EUR/USD advances around 0.20% and trades near 1.1530, recovering the ground lost on Monday as US Treasury yields retreat following the JOLTS miss. The pair holds comfortably above the 1.1500 threshold.

GBP/USD adds around 0.10% and trades near 1.3450, consolidating within its recent range. Cable lacks domestic catalysts, leaving price action dictated by the Greenback.

USD/JPY rises around 0.40% to trade near 157.80, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) the only major currency weakening against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen surrenders part of last week's intervention-driven gains as the retreat in geopolitical risk erodes safe-haven demand and encourages a partial return to carry positioning.

AUD/USD climbs around 0.60% to near 0.7050, leading the majors and recovering the 0.7000 psychological level. The Australian Dollar benefits from the improved risk backdrop and the prospect of cheaper energy costs across the region.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil sinks around 5.3% and trades near $75.80 per barrel, a second consecutive session of heavy losses. The unwind of supply-disruption hedges accelerated as traders positioned for a formal announcement on the waterway.

Gold (XAU/USD) gains around 0.60% and trades near $4,080 per troy ounce, supported by the softer US Dollar and lower yields despite the calmer geopolitical tone. Silver outperforms sharply, surging around 2.5% toward $59.58 as the improved outlook for industrial demand compounds the boost from falling real rates.

The Asia-Pacific session will deliver New Zealand's second-quarter labor market report, Japan's Labor Cash Earnings and the Bank of Japan Minutes, followed by China's RatingDog Services PMI. Australia will publish on Thursday June trade figures, with the Trade Balance expected to narrow to a deficit of 1,100 million from 3,018 million.

Europe will open with the final HCOB Services and Composite PMIs. Spain's Services index is forecast at 55.3, up from 54.2, while Germany's Services reading is expected to be confirmed at 49.6, still in contraction territory, with the Composite gauge at 51.2. The Eurozone Composite PMI is seen unchanged at 51.9. The bloc will also release Producer Price Index data, with annual factory-gate inflation forecast to slow sharply to 4.6% from 5.9%.

In the United States, the ADP Employment Change is expected to show private hiring slowing to 70K in July from 98K, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. The ISM Services PMI is forecast to edge up to 54.5 from 54, with the Prices Paid component last at 67.7 and the Employment Index at 51.2. The S&P Global Composite PMI is seen confirmed at 53.6. Fed's Cook is also scheduled to speak.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD’s recent downside bias has faded after a dip to 1.2790 and recovery to 1.2827. In the near term, the pair is expected to range between 1.2805 and 1.2845, while on a 1–3 week horizon, further declines require a clear break below 1.2790, with 1.2765 the next level to watch.

Downside risk hinges on 1.2790

"24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: “While the bias remains tilted to the downside today, given that there is no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline may not break the significant support at 1.2790. On the upside, a breach of 1.2845 would indicate that the downside bias has faded.” We were not wrong, as USD dipped to 1.2790 before recovering to close little changed at 1.2827 (+0.05%). The downward bias has faded with the recovery. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2805 and 1.2845. "

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815). As highlighted, while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” The risk of USD breaking clearly below 1.2790 will remain intact as long as USD holds below 1.2875 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level). Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.2790 is 1.2765."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Mexican Peso gains as Hormuz reopening hopes boost risk appetite.
• Banxico hold bets remain firm ahead of the August policy decision.
• Softer-than-expected US JOLTS data keeps US Dollar pressure in focus.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) surges to a six-week high on Tuesday as talks between the US and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing global inflationary pressures by freeing ship traffic. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair trades at 17.26, after reaching a high of 17.33.

USD/MXN slides as US-Iran negotiations ease global inflation concerns

Geopolitical news is driving financial markets. Negotiations between the US and Iran are a tailwind for risk-sensitive currencies like the Mexican Peso, which also benefits from the interest rate differential between the US and Mexico, which favors the latter.

A possible interim Iran deal is gaining traction, according to officials familiar with that matter. Before the Wall Street open, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal could be reached as soon as today or tomorrow, a view echoed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Data in Mexico showed that July’s Consumer Confidence improved for the second straight month on a monthly basis. Annually, it retreated for the nineteenth consecutive month.

Meanwhile, attention turns to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision on Thursday. According to Prime Terminal data, there's a 93% probability that rates will remain at 6.50%, with only a 7% chance of an increase at the upcoming meeting.

Across the southern border, the US JOLTS vacancies for June dropped from 7.537 million to 7.359 million, falling short of the forecast of 7.4 million. The relatively low number of layoffs suggests limited firing and hiring activity, with approximately one vacancy for each unemployed individual, indicating a stable labor market.

The US schedule will feature jobs data, led by the ADP Employment Change, the job openings survey, jobless claims and the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, on Friday.

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.2545, retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the cluster of simple moving averages around 17.4149 and the shorter-term downward trend-line break at 17.4188. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 38.6 sits just above oversold territory, suggesting that while selling pressure is easing slightly, the pair remains under structural topside supply.

On the downside, the next notable structural floor emerges near the long-term downward trend-line break at 15.7289, which acts as a distant support zone should the current slide extend. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the grouped 50/100/200-period simple moving averages around 17.4149, followed closely by the short-term descending trend-line break at 17.4188; a daily close above this band would be needed to alleviate the current bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Commerzbank economist Dr. Henry Hao highlights that China’s private manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in July, reinforcing signs of slowing factory momentum alongside the official NBS PMI at 49.2. The weaker data strengthen the case for near-term monetary easing, with markets increasingly pricing in LPR and possible RRR cuts, while USD/CNY and USD/CNH both moved higher to around 6.76.

China slowdown supports policy easing

"China's private manufacturing gauge slipped to a four-month low in July, adding to signs that industrial momentum is deteriorating."

"Taken together, the two surveys signal that China's manufacturing sector is losing momentum, across both large and private-sector firms."

"The sub-component breakdown of the RatingDog survey reinforces the softness."

"The weaker-than-expected PMI readings materially strengthen the case for near-term monetary easing."

"In FX, USD/CNY and offshore USD/CNH rose 30 pips and 60 pips respectively to 6.76 yesterday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team notes that Sterling remains modestly firmer, with GBP/USD continuing to pivot around long-term moving averages near 1.34. Short-term technicals are described as neutral to bullish, with last week’s rise and trend oscillators hinting at upside potential toward 1.3555/1.3560, while support is identified around 1.3390/1.3400.

Sterling holds near key averages

"Sterling is modestly firmer on the session but trading is limited, with no UK data reports this morning to drive volatility. UK Gilts are underperforming European bonds somewhat but EUR/GBP is largely stable."

"Neutral/bullish—Sterling continues to chop around the 100- and 200-day moving averages (both close to 1.34) as the flat, broad range trade in place over the past few months continues to play out."

"A solid rise in Cable last week and bullish leaning (but still weak) trend oscillators suggest some upside potential for the pound, however."

"Gains through the low 1.35 zone should allow spot to retest the recent peak around 1.3555/60. Support is 1.3390/00."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Gold rises as falling Oil prices drag Treasury yields lower.
• JOLTS miss forecasts but signal a balanced labor market before ADP and NFP.
• Hormuz reopening hopes pressure crude, easing inflation expectations.

Gold (XAU/USD) advances some 0.75% on Tuesday as Oil prices fall, along with US Treasury yields. Also, an improvement in risk appetite propelled the yellow metal to a two-day peak of $4,106.

XAU/USD advances as Hormuz reopening hopes weigh in Oil, ease inflation pressures

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six other currencies, is down 0.05% amid growing speculation for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran and Oman continue talks on the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IRIB. Tehran is reportedly weighing whether to allow Europe to clear mines in the Strait, while US President Donald Trump reposted an article from August 2, titled “Trump: Deal is imminent as Iran talks restart Monday on denuclearisation.”

In June, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) declined from 7.537 million to 7.359 million, missing the forecast of 7.4 million. The low number of layoffs indicates minimal firing and hiring activity, with roughly one vacancy per unemployed person, signaling a balanced labor market.

The US Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit for June decreased from -$77.6 billion to -$73.3 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of -$73 billion.

Now eyes are on the ADP Employment Change for July, with private companies expected to have hired 70K people, down from the 98K jobs created in June. After this, the focus shifts to jobless claims on Thursday, followed by the release of Nonfarm Payrolls for July, with the US economy expected to add 80K workers to the workforce.

Worth noting, bullion prices are set to edge higher if crude prices continue to tumble. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, lost nearly 5% to $76.09 per barrel, pushing US yields lower, as markets expect lower inflationary prints. The US 10-year T-note collapses by 10 basis points to 4.687%, 

Money markets are pricing in a nearly 59% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates at the September 16 meeting, according to Prime Terminal. For the December meeting, the odds for a rate hike are 83%.

Aside from this, on Monday, the New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism that inflation pressures are expected to decrease gradually. However, he emphasised that if inflation does not subside as hoped, the US central bank is prepared to respond with rate hikes.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold threatens to clear $4,100, despite remaining bearish

Gold price is consolidating but approaching $4,100 for the first time since last Friday. Momentum is turning bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is about to clear the 50-neutral level, a sign used by some traders to buy the yellow metal.

Despite this, the market structure is respecting the successive series of lower highs and lower lows, but if XAU/USD clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,156, followed by the July 6 cycle high at $4,202, the yellow metal will shift to neutral-upward.

For a bearish continuation, Gold must extend its losses below the August 3 daily low of $4,019. A breach of the latter exposes $4,000, followed by the June 17 low of $3,959.

• USD/JPY edges higher as the Japanese Yen gives back part of its intervention-led gains.
• The pair has slipped below all major moving averages, turning the near-term bias bearish.
• RSI signals oversold conditions, while the 200-day SMA at 158 offers immediate resistance.

USD/JPY trades modestly higher on Tuesday despite a softer US Dollar (USD), as the impact of recent intervention fades and the Japanese Yen (JPY) comes under pressure again. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 157.60, recovering after briefly falling toward 155 on Monday, its lowest level since May 6.

Analysts at Societe Generale argue that a lasting recovery in the Yen will hinge on the domestic growth story rather than policy theatrics, maintaining that “what will trigger a durable yen rally will be a rise in consensus forecasts of Japanese growth, rather than more, bigger intervention, coordinated or otherwise.”

They add that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” cautioning that “if Japanese growth remains weak, higher JGB yields will increasingly be unhelpful for the yen.”

In contrast, strategists at BBH focus on the near-term impact of recent official action, noting that “the coordinated US-Japan intervention – and officials’ warning that they stand ready to act again – significantly raises the cost of fighting a stronger yen and puts a much firmer ceiling on USD/JPY.”

From a technical perspective, the intervention-driven pullback in USD/JPY has weakened the near-term bullish structure, with the pair slipping below key moving averages.

On the daily chart, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158 offers immediate resistance. Further up, the 100-day SMA at 160 guards the path toward the 50-day SMA at 161.26 and the 21-day SMA at 161.89, ahead of a more distant structural hurdle at 164.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27 signals oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reflecting the recent shift in momentum to the downside.

On the downside, the 155.00 psychological mark offers immediate support. A decisive break below this level could expose the 152.50 area, with the 150.00 psychological mark emerging as the next major downside target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)