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• WTI catches aggressive bets in reaction to Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on US forces.
• Trump warned that military operations could resume if negotiations with Iran collapse.
• Supply disruption worries remain in play and lend additional support to crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – gains strong positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak to an over two-week low touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades around mid-$81.00s, up nearly 4% for the day, amid the risk of resumption of US-Iran hostilities.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis,  Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East on Tuesday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated a warning that military operations could resume if negotiations with Iran collapse. Speaking to  Fox News, Trump said that the US will target key Iranian infrastructure, major bridges, and power plants if Tehran fails to reach an agreement.

Separately, Central Command said the US military and Saudi Arabian forces conducted joint strikes “against Iran-aligned terrorists” in Iraq. This marks a fresh escalation of tensions in the region, which, along with the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, prompts traders to price in a geopolitical risk premium and triggers a goodish recovery in crude oil prices. In fact, shipping traffic through the strategic waterway fell sharply after Iran targeted several vessels earlier this month.

Adding to this, the Iran-backed Houthis recently opened a new front in the five-month-old US-Iran war and announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. This adds to market concerns about significant disruptions to global oil supplies and turns out to be another factor supporting crude oil prices. Moreover, a softer US Dollar (USD) offers some support to USD-denominated commodities and backs the case for additional gains as the focus remains on the FOMC policy decision.

• Gold struggles as oil rebounds after US intercepts Iranian missiles, renewing Middle East geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
• Unusually high market uncertainty surrounds the Fed’s rate decision, with some pricing in further hikes.
• Traders factor in a 76.6% chance of a September rate increase, keeping borrowing costs elevated.

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around $4,020 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Gold loses ground as oil prices rebounded following renewed hostilities in the Middle East, reviving geopolitical tensions and keeping investors focused on inflationary pressures and the interest rate outlook.

The escalation stems from an Iranian attack targeting US troops stationed across the region, with Iran firing multiple ballistic missiles toward a US base in Jordan around 5:45 pm ET. According to statements and video footage released by the US military, all of the surprise IRGC missiles were successfully intercepted. The strike is widely believed to be a direct response to recent US actions targeting Iranian navy boats.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Despite repeated calls from US President Donald Trump for lower interest rates, market sentiment remains cautious; traders are currently pricing in a 30.5% chance of an immediate rate hike, an unusually high level of uncertainty so close to a policy announcement. Looking further ahead, markets are also factoring in a 76.6% probability of a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer.

• Australian Consumer Price Index seen steady at 4% YoY in June.
• The Trimmed Mean CPI will impact the next Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision.
• The Australian Dollar trades with a neutral stance against its American rival.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, matching the May reading. The monthly CPI is foreseen at 0.2% following the -0.7% print from May.

The ABS will also release the Trimmed Mean CPI, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) favorite inflation gauge. The annual figure is expected to print at 3.7%, higher than the previous reading of 3.6%, while on a monthly basis the Trimmed Mean CPI is also forecast to remain unchanged at 0.4%.

Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around 0.6950 vs the US Dollar (USD), with the latter strengthening on demand for safety.

What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate data?

Inflation data is a critical factor in the RBA’s monetary policy decisions, and according to Governor Michele Bullock, “it is still too high.”

The RBA met in June, and the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, after hiking rates three times so far in 2026. The accompanying statement showed that policymakers acknowledged that disruption to global Oil supply is having an impact on inflation, and that the latter picked up “materially” in the second half of 2025 — that is, before the current Middle East war.

Geopolitical tensions escalated in mid-July and eased by the end of the month, yet the crisis remains. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz is limited after the United States (US) and Iran exchanged attacks over the last two weeks. While crossfire has paused, the critical sea strait is closed to most traffic. Oil prices are off their monthly peaks, but a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades at around $80, while the barrel of Brent changes hands at $84, maintaining speculative interest in cautious mode.

Confidence has also been eroded ahead of the Australian CPI amid a sharp decline in global stocks. Once again, concerns revolved around potential returns from massive AI investment.

No peace progress in the Middle East is the main inflationary factor these days, and there’s little central banks can do. The RBA understands a tighter monetary policy this year has helped slow consumption spending, but also that uncertainty about the outlook remains high, and that, even if the war ends in the near term, something quite unlikely, global supply issues will take some time to resolve, hence maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation.

Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision on monetary policy later on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, although Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to retain a certain hawkish tone. Warsh has made a point against forward guidance, yet market players will still be looking for clues about what the central bank may do when it meets again in September.

How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?

Annual Australian CPI peaked at 4.6% YoY in March and eased toward 4% in May. Given that the war paused in June, most major economies reported lower-than-anticipated inflation in the month, and that should be the case in Australia.

A reading in line with expectations and the previous 4% should have no material impact on the AUD/USD pair. Anything above that level should boost speculation for additional rate hikes, resulting in a stronger Aussie, at least in the near-term.

On the contrary, a softer-than-anticipated outcome, and especially given AUD/USD's current bearish tone, should push the pair sharply lower in the near term, as the focus quickly returns to war-related headlines and the upcoming Fed announcement.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD is neutral. For the last two weeks, the pair has been confined to a tight range, finding buyers around 0.6950 and quickly retreating on spikes beyond the 0.7000 figure. The daily chart reflects the ongoing absence of directional strength, as the pair barely holds above a mildly bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently near the base of the aforementioned range. The 100-day SMA lies flat in the 0.7050 region, while the 200-day SMA grinds marginally higher around 0.6900. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned marginally lower around their midlines, failing to provide clear directional clues.”

Bednarik adds: “The AUD/USD pair would need to clear the 0.7030 region to be able to extend its run toward the 0.7070 price zone. Once beyond the latter, next resistance lies at the 0.7100 figure. Support can be found at 0.6950 and 0.6900, with a break below the latter opening the door for a steeper decline.”

• USD/JPY holds a fraction under 164.00, a few ticks beneath the weakest the Japanese currency has been against the Dollar since 1986.
• Korean equities fell close to 11% and the Nikkei 225 almost 4%, and the region's traditional haven did not catch a single bid.
• Friday's Bank of Japan hold is fully priced, which leaves Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision as the only genuinely live event in this pair.

The Yen trades a fraction under 164.00 on Tuesday, marginally weaker on the day, inside a 30-pip band with a floor above 163.50 and a high a few ticks beneath the standing cycle extreme. That extreme is the currency's weakest level against the Dollar in four decades, and the pair has now spent three sessions grinding at it without a meaningful pullback.

What makes that stillness remarkable is the backdrop it declined to notice. Tuesday delivered the largest single-session equity shock in Asia this year, and the currency that is supposed to be bought when Asia breaks did not move.

A haven that did not show up for work

Korea's benchmark fell close to 11%, triggering its eighth circuit breaker of the year, after a report that a Chinese manufacturer has begun mass production of lithography equipment long monopolized by a single Dutch supplier. Japan's own benchmark fell nearly 4% to its weakest since 22 May, led by chip-equipment names, while Taiwan's index dropped 4.7% and the artificial-intelligence trade came under pressure across the region.

A functioning haven currency rallies into that. This one did not, which says the Yen has stopped trading as insurance and now trades purely as the funding leg of a carry position that keeps getting cheaper to hold. Stable implied volatility and a policy rate of 1.00% will do that.

The mechanics are not subtle. Implied volatility across the majors has stayed compressed through the war, the intervention premium has been priced out of the forwards, and a 1.00% funding rate against American front-end yields above 4% pays the holder of that position to ignore precisely the kind of headline Tuesday produced. Books built on that arithmetic do not unwind because Korean semiconductors have a bad morning.

The defence line that was not there

Japan's Ministry of Finance spent roughly 11.7 trillion Yen, close to 72 billion Dollars, defending the currency between late April and late May, one of the largest intervention campaigns on record and nearly double the previous largest effort. The rate was back above the level that triggered it inside six weeks.

Officials have since dropped verbal warnings in favour of ambush tactics designed to keep the market uncertain about timing. The flaw in that doctrine is that removing the published line also removes the deterrent, and a market that has watched 162.00 pass without consequence will keep testing upward until something answers. The finance ministry has said it would act decisively against excessive moves, which is the language that preceded a campaign the market has already priced as ineffective.

Friday's meeting is not the event

The Bank of Japan concludes a two-day meeting on Friday with a hold at 1.00% fully priced per the calendar, following June's quarter-point move to a three-decade high. The quarterly outlook document is where the content sits, with current fiscal-year growth forecasts expected higher on artificial-intelligence-linked demand while core inflation is trimmed to account for energy subsidies.

That pairing is close to the worst available combination for the currency. Upgraded growth without an inflation upgrade hands the board its justification for patience, and patience at 1.00% against a Federal Reserve carrying cumulative hike odds above 91% into December is simply an instruction to leave the carry trade on. With Tokyo's core measure running near 1.7%, the real policy rate remains negative regardless of what the board says on Friday.

Turning this pair requires a Federal Reserve that stops hardening its terminal or a Japanese board that stops explaining why it can afford to wait. Neither appears on this week's agenda, and the currency desk at the finance ministry has already demonstrated what a record-sized operation buys in this regime, which is roughly six weeks.

The week ahead

Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision at 18:00 GMT is the pair's only two-way event, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT and no Summary of Economic Projections attached. Rate futures put a hike at just over 30%, trimmed from just under 36% at the weekend, which leaves the statement itself carrying the entire signal.

Thursday at 23:30 GMT brings Tokyo's July Consumer Price Index, with the measure excluding fresh food expected at 1.7% against 1.6% previously, alongside a June unemployment rate held at 2.5%. Retail trade follows at 23:50 GMT, forecast at 3.1% YoY after 5.3%. Friday's rate decision carries no scheduled time, with the outlook report at 03:00 GMT and the press briefing at 06:30 GMT.

Technical outlook

Resistance: the standing cycle high just beneath 164.00 is the only level that matters in the near term, and three sessions of pressure have not cracked it. Above there the chart is empty back to 1986, with 164.50 and 165.00 the round-number reference points.

Support: 163.50 is Tuesday's floor, with 163.00 the shelf broken on 21 July and the first level that would suggest a real reversal. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average near 161.50 is the trend line, rising steadily, and the 200-day sits far below near 157.00.

Bias: Bullish. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index near 50 has reset from overbought without a price decline, which is what a trending market looks like when it pauses rather than turns. Buy dips toward 163.50. Invalidation is a daily close beneath 163.00.

USD/JPY daily chart

• AUD/USD slips around 0.25% to trade beneath 0.7000, the weakest of the majors after a morning address from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor.
• Second-quarter inflation lands at 01:30 GMT Wednesday, sixteen hours before the Federal Reserve decision and thirteen days before the domestic meeting it will decide.
• A central bank asking out loud whether it has already done enough is not a central bank lining up its next move.

The Aussie trades just beneath 0.7000 on Tuesday, down around 0.25% and last in the G10 queue, after a Sydney address from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor gave the hike case nothing to eat. The session covers barely 35 pips, from a floor above 0.6950 to a high that stopped short of the figure, which is now the fifth consecutive week that 0.7000 has capped the currency.

The speech was not dovish in content. It held that underlying inflation remains too high and could rise further as war-driven energy costs feed through, that a further easing in demand growth is required with demand still running ahead of supply, and that the board is prepared to tighten again if needed.

The framing did the damage, not the content

What moved the currency was the question the Governor chose to pose, which was whether this year's three hikes have already done the job. Committees preparing to move do not spend a set-piece speech wondering aloud whether the work is already behind them, and traders marked down the 11 August meeting accordingly.

The awkward timing is that the repricing happened sixteen hours before the release that actually decides the meeting. Australia's second-quarter Consumer Price Index arrives at 01:30 GMT Wednesday, and the domestic rate market has effectively pre-committed to an answer it has not seen.

What the print has to do

The calendar carries the monthly headline at 0.2% MoM against a -0.7% prior, the annual rate unchanged at 4%, the monthly trimmed mean at 0.4% and the annual trimmed mean previously at 3.6%. The quarterly trimmed mean is the number the board actually reads, and forecasts near 0.9% for the quarter would lift the annual pace toward 3.7%.

That would sit a full point above the top of the 2% to 3% target band, in an economy that added more than 76K jobs in June with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Set against a May forecast round that had already pushed the June-quarter headline projection up to 4.8%, an in-line print leaves August genuinely live and Tuesday's selling looking hasty by less than a day.

The reverse case is equally clean. A quarterly trimmed mean nearer 0.8% would take the annual pace back toward 3.5% and vindicate the repricing in a single line, killing the domestic meeting and handing the currency over to the Dollar until the middle of August. There is no middle outcome that leaves 11 August ambiguous, which is rare enough on an inflation release to be worth the overnight watch.

Winning at home is not winning the pair

None of which guarantees the currency anything, because the other side of the quote is doing more work. Rate futures put a July hike from the Federal Reserve at just over 30%, cumulative odds of at least one hike by December above 91%, and two or more near 58%. One Australian quarter-point delivered on 11 August competes against a terminal rate that keeps hardening. The domestic policy rate has stood at 4.35% since the third hike of the year, and the gap that matters is the one the market expects rather than the one currently posted.

The commodity leg offers no help either. Iron Ore has spent the summer beneath $100 a tonne on ample seaborne supply and compressed Chinese steel margins, which strips the traditional support out of the Aussie's story. Tuesday made the point neatly: Korea's benchmark fell close to 11% and Japan's nearly 4%, while Australia's own index rose, and the currency was still the weakest major on the board. This was a rates move rather than a risk move.

The week ahead

Wednesday runs the double bill, with domestic inflation at 01:30 GMT and the Federal Open Market Committee at 18:00 GMT, the latter carrying no Summary of Economic Projections and therefore leaving everything to the statement and the press conference. Thursday brings June building permits at -1.5% MoM against -1.1%, then June core Personal Consumption Expenditures out of the United States at 12:30 GMT, forecast at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY.

Friday closes the week with second-quarter Producer Price Index data at 01:30 GMT against a 3% YoY prior, alongside Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes, both expected at 50 after 50.3 and 50.2. A pair of prints on the line between expansion and contraction is the last thing this currency needs on a Friday.

Technical outlook

Resistance: 0.7000 is the immediate cap and has held for five straight weeks, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average sitting fractionally above it. The mid-July high near 0.7050 is the level that would break the sequence, and above that the May peak short of 0.7300 becomes the reference.

Support: 0.6950 is Tuesday's floor and the first objective, with the rising 200-day Exponential Moving Average near 0.6900 the structural line beneath it. The summer base just above 0.6850 has not been revisited since early July.

Bias: Bearish. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index near 90 has been pinned in overbought territory for a week without producing a break of 0.7000, which is the clearest exhaustion signal on the chart. Sell into the moving average. Invalidation is a daily close above 0.7050.

AUD/USD daily chart

• EUR/USD trades just under 1.1400 after a third straight session of falling Crude Oil, a terms-of-trade gift the currency has not been paid for.
• A hawkish hold last week left markets pricing a September hike from the European Central Bank, and the single currency still sits within a cent of its summer low.
• The hawkish case in Frankfurt runs on energy, the hawkish case in Washington does not, and the peace trade quietly removes only one of them.

The Euro trades just under 1.1400 on Tuesday, around 0.15% firmer, after a session that ran from a shade above 1.1350 to a fraction over 1.1400. Behind that half-cent range sits a third consecutive session of falling Crude Oil, with Brent near $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate near $79.00 as the American and Iranian stand-down runs into a fourth day.

For the developed world's largest net energy importer, roughly 16% off last Thursday's peak is the cleanest fundamental improvement on offer, and it has bought this currency a sixth of a cent. That failure is not a market oversight. It is the correct reading of what falling energy actually does to the rate differential.

Cheaper energy is a rate cut in disguise

The European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.25% last week and framed the hold hawkishly enough to move markets toward a quarter-point hike in September. Every part of that stance is energy-derived. Euro-area inflation ran at 2.8% YoY in June against 3.2% in May, and staff projections put the 2026 average near 3.0% almost entirely on the energy line.

Strip out the war premium and the projection falls with it, which takes the September hike along for the ride. A single currency whose only bid this year has been imported inflation cannot celebrate the removal of imported inflation. The terms-of-trade gain and the rate-differential loss arrive in the same headline, and the second one is larger.

The American case does not run on Crude Oil

Nothing symmetrical happens on the other side of the pair. Rate futures put a July hike at just over 30%, trimmed from just under 36% at the weekend, while cumulative odds of at least one hike by December hold above 91% and two or more sit near 58%. The front end gave money back and the terminal hardened anyway.

That resilience is structural. The Federal Reserve's inflation problem is import prices running above 7% YoY, a tariff schedule still being extended, and a passthrough chain into food and materials that operates on planting-season lags rather than on pump prices. Peace in the Strait of Hormuz does not touch any of it, so the same headline that disarms one central bank leaves the other exactly where it was.

The growth arithmetic compounds the problem. Euro-area output is tracked near 0.8% for 2026 against an American economy running second-quarter growth around 2.1% annualized, so the capital-flow argument and the rate argument point in the same direction. A currency needs one of those two to break its way before a range floor becomes a base rather than a waypoint.

Five weeks in a box for a reason

The pair has now spent five weeks between roughly 1.1325 and 1.1450, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average just under 1.1500 and the 200-day near 1.1600, both declining and the faster line beneath the slower since mid-June. Tuesday's Asian equity shock, with Korea's benchmark down close to 11%, produced no meaningful bid either, which is its own verdict on the currency's defensive credentials.

The Dollar Index near a five-week high with energy falling and equities cracking is not a contradiction. It is a market that has decided the American terminal rate outranks every other variable, and the Euro is on the wrong side of that trade until something changes the December strip.

Positioning explains the durability of the box. September pricing gives the downside a floor while the American terminal caps the upside, a stable arrangement right up to the moment one of the two assumptions gets tested. Wednesday tests the American one. The July flash inflation estimates test the European one on Friday, which makes this the first week since June in which the range genuinely has an expiry date.

The week ahead

Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee decision at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT and no Summary of Economic Projections attached, is the pair's pivot. Thursday at 12:30 GMT brings June core Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY against 3.4% previously, second-quarter Gross Domestic Product at 2.1% annualized, and initial jobless claims at 200K after a 187K print.

Friday adds the second-quarter Employment Cost Index at 0.8% and the final University of Michigan survey, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.2%. Euro-area second-quarter growth and the July flash inflation estimates also land later in the week, and on current form they will matter to this exchange rate considerably less than the American docket does.

Technical outlook

Resistance: 1.1400 is the immediate line and Tuesday's ceiling, with the five-week range top near 1.1450 above it. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average just under 1.1500 is the first level that would change the structure, and it has not been touched since mid-June.

Support: 1.1350 is the floor of the recent congestion, with the late-June low a shade above 1.1300 beneath it. A break there opens 1.1250 with no meaningful shelf until 1.1200.

Bias: Bearish. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index near 65 and rolling over is the only near-term positive, and it is not enough against price beneath two declining moving averages with the faster one below the slower. Sell rallies into 1.1450. Invalidation is a daily close above 1.1500.

EUR/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD holds a shade under 1.3300 for a second session, pinned beneath a converged moving-average band that has capped every attempt this month.
• Thursday brings a rate decision, minutes and a fresh quarterly forecast round from the Bank of England, with consensus pointing to an unchanged 3.75% on an unchanged 7-2 vote.
• That forecast was conditioned before the war premium drained out of energy, which leaves its inflation profile describing a market that no longer trades.

The Pound spends Tuesday almost perfectly still, trading just under 1.3300 with a session range under 40 pips between a floor above 1.3250 and a ceiling fractionally above 1.3300. That is a second consecutive day of near-total inertia beneath a shelf that took three weeks of defence to break, and it arrives with two central bank decisions and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge all landing inside three days.

Inertia this deep into a week that heavy is not indecision so much as a verdict, and the verdict is that Sterling is not the variable being solved for. The Dollar Index sits near a five-week high, the front end of the American curve still carries a live hike tail into Wednesday, and the British contribution this week is a document nobody expects to change the rate.

Washington sets the level before London gets a turn

Federal Open Market Committee members opened a two-day meeting on Tuesday, with the decision due at 18:00 GMT Wednesday and the press conference half an hour behind it. Rate futures put the odds of a hike at just over 30%, trimmed from just under 36% at the weekend, so the market has taken money off the July meeting without taking tightening out of the curve.

What the curve did instead was push the same tightening further out. Cumulative odds of at least one hike run above 76% by the September meeting and above 91% by December, with two or more priced at roughly 58%. A Dollar valued against that profile does not need Wednesday to deliver anything, which is exactly why the Pound cannot manufacture a rally out of its own calendar.

A forecast conditioned on a premium that has drained

The Bank of England publishes its decision, minutes and quarterly report at 11:00 GMT Thursday, with the Governor's briefing at 11:30 GMT. Forecast rounds of that kind condition their inflation and growth profiles on market and futures averages struck days before publication, a sensible convention in a quiet quarter and a trap in this one.

Crude Oil has fallen for a third consecutive session as the American and Iranian stand-down runs into a fourth day, with Brent near $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate near $79.00, roughly 16% below last Thursday's peak. The energy path underpinning Thursday's inflation profile was fixed while that premium was still in the price. Canada's own July forecast round hit the identical problem three weeks ago in the opposite direction, and its Governor conceded the point at the podium.

The report also carries the projections that condition the market's own tightening path, which means a softer energy profile lands directly on the two quarter-point rises the curve holds into next spring. A committee that has not changed Bank Rate since December has every incentive to leave that path undisturbed, and the likeliest result is a document that reads more hawkish than the tape it purports to describe.

The vote is the least informative item on the sheet

Consensus expects 3.75% held on a 7-2 split, with two members again preferring 4.00% and none preferring a cut, reproducing June's arithmetic exactly. A vote that repeats itself carries no information, which pushes the entire event risk into the projections and the tone of the briefing. Money markets meanwhile carry Bank Rate approaching 4.25% inside roughly six months.

The tail worth watching is a third dissenter rather than a change in the rate itself. June's split had already doubled the hawkish minority from the single voice recorded in April, so a move to three would mark a second consecutive meeting of expansion inside a committee that has sat still since December. That is the one outcome capable of pulling this pair back through the moving-average band on British merits alone.

The awkward part is that the projections face two directions at once. A profile conditioned on expensive energy reads hawkish against a tape that has cheapened, but the stand-down behind that cheapening is sourced to munitions depth rather than to a signed agreement, and Tehran denies any negotiation beyond a channel with Oman on Strait passage. The forecast can be wrong either way, and this pair will trade the hawkish reading first.

The week ahead

Wednesday's decision is the pivot for every Dollar pair, with no Summary of Economic Projections attached, leaving the statement and the press conference to carry the whole signal. Thursday at 11:00 GMT delivers the British side, where the split and the report land together.

Thursday at 12:30 GMT then stacks the American releases that matter more to Sterling than anything in that report: June core Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY against 3.4% previously, second-quarter Gross Domestic Product at 2.1% annualized, and initial jobless claims at 200K after a 187K print. Friday adds the second-quarter Employment Cost Index at 0.8% and the final University of Michigan survey, where one-year inflation expectations sit at 4.2%.

Technical outlook

Resistance: 1.3300 is the first line and the failed shelf, with the converged 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages just below 1.3400 the band that has capped every attempt this month. A daily close above it reopens the mid-July peak near 1.3550.

Support: 1.3250 marks Tuesday's floor and the first objective, with 1.3200 beneath it. The summer base just under 1.3150 remains the structural line and has not been tested since late June.

Bias: Bearish. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index near 50 leaves room in both directions, so the case rests on structure rather than momentum: price beneath a declining moving-average band, a shelf lost after three weeks of defence, and an event calendar whose first two items belong to the Dollar. Sell strength into the band. Invalidation is a daily close above 1.3400.

GBP/USD daily chart

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao analyzes Indonesia markets after Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s unexpected resignation. She notes initial weakness in onshore assets as investors reassess implications for Rupiah stability and bonds. Rao highlights Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti’s appointment as acting Governor and stresses that leadership continuity, experience and institutional independence will be key to sustaining confidence in Indonesia’s monetary policy framework.

Investors reassess Rupiah and bonds

"Investors sought policy clarity after BI Governor Warjiyo unexpectedly resigned on Monday, citing personal reasons."

"Onshore markets witnessed kneejerk weakness on the newsbreak, as investors attempt to parse through what the transition would mean for the rupiah’s defence and bond markets."

"In the near term, the appointment of the interim chief will help calm transition concerns, helping to stabilize asset markets."

"As the next step in the process to name a new BI chief, President Prabowo Subianto is likely to nominate a candidate for approval to the House of Representatives (DPR)."

"For investors, reassurance that the central bank remains under an experienced, and independent leader will be important in sustaining confidence in the monetary policy framework and reaffirm its institutional autonomy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank analysts highlight that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second straight meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope while leaving the band’s centre and width unchanged. The move signals greater concern over inflation risks despite benign data and softer energy prices. USD/SGD dipped modestly toward 1.2890 after the announcement and was around 1.2910 earlier.

Surprise MAS move supports Singapore Dollar

"In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy for the second consecutive meeting."

"It increased the rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band “very slightly”, with no changes to the centre or width of the band. Importantly, MAS said that the increase was smaller than the tightening in April."

"MAS could have easily left policy unchanged given that inflation remains relatively benign, and energy prices have retreated from their April peaks."

"The official forecast is likely to be revised up from 2-4% currently. MAS maintained its headline and core inflation forecasts at 1.5-2.5% for 2026. USD/SGD fell only modestly to around 1.2890 following the announcement."

"Its decision to act signals that MAS remains more concerned about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to growth. Growth was stronger-than-expected in H1 2026 at 6%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• NZD/USD holds nearly flat around 0.5785 after giving back part of its earlier rebound.
• Softer US consumer confidence and slowing private-sector hiring limit demand for the Greenback.
• The Fed’s policy guidance will likely determine whether the pair extends its recovery or resumes its decline.

NZD/USD trades nearly unchanged around the 0.5785 area on Tuesday, struggling to extend its earlier recovery despite a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD). The pair rebounded from recent lows but lost momentum as investors avoided large positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary-policy announcement.

The Greenback came under pressure after the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. US private employers also added an average of only 15K jobs per week during the four weeks ending July 11, according to the NER Pulse report, indicating that hiring slowed for a fifth consecutive week.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives some support from the sharp decline in oil prices, as lower energy costs improve the outlook for New Zealand, which relies heavily on imported fuel. However, cautious market sentiment and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s guidance continue to limit the Kiwi’s recovery.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investors will focus on the policy statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for signals regarding future adjustments. A hawkish message could strengthen the US Dollar and push NZD/USD back toward its recent lows, while cautious guidance could support another recovery attempt.

Technical Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5788. The pair is hovering just above both the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5783 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5787, hinting at a fragile attempt to build a base after recent weakness, though the cluster of nearby horizontal levels keeps the near-term bias broadly neutral. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.8 sits slightly below the 50 line, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum as price consolidates around its short- and medium-term averages.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5791, followed by another nearby barrier at 0.5799, where recent supply has tended to cap rebounds; a break above these caps would open the way toward 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the 100-period SMA at 0.5787 and the horizontal level at 0.5785, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5783 and the subsequent floor at 0.5779 guarding against a deeper pullback; a sustained move below this latter zone would undermine the nascent base-building tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)