Forex News
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the US struck military targets at a strategic Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf and warned it could hit oil infrastructure next if Tehran keeps disrupting energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying the two-week conflict in the region.
Trump noted in his post on Truth Social: "Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island."
"Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island," he added.
The strategic island, which manages nearly all of Iran’s crude oil exports, has largely been avoided by both the US and Israel so far.
Officials in the Trump administration have reportedly suggested that seizing Kharg Island remains a possible option.
In another post, Trump said, "Iran had plans of taking over the entire Middle East, and completely obliterating Israel. JUST LIKE IRAN ITSELF, THOSE PLANS ARE NOW DEAD!"
In response, Iran threatened to attack US-linked oil targets.
In a statement cited by Iranian media, the military’s Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that oil and energy facilities linked to companies cooperating with the US would be “immediately destroyed and turned to ashes” if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted.
Update: Iranian media, Fars News Agency, reported there is no damage to its oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. However, the same is not yet confirmed by the country's military.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s Defense Ministry said in two separate statements on Saturday that its forces had successfully intercepted a missile attack aimed at the country, AFP News reported.
Separately, in a statement released on Saturday, Hamas, the Iran-backed militant group, called on Tehran to stop attacking neighbouring countries.
“While affirming the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran to respond to this aggression by all available means in accordance with international norms and laws, the movement calls on the brothers in Iran to avoid targeting neighbouring countries,” Hamas said.
Market implications
These headlines are likely to intensify the ongoing volatility in Oil, with prices likely to rocket during the early Asian hours on Monday should Tehran deepen the conflict by attacking the energy infrastructure owned by oil companies cooperating with the US in the region.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/USD drops 1.74% on the week, trading near 1.1414 after slipping below the 200-day SMA.
- Break under 1.1400 exposes 1.1300 and the 100-week SMA at 1.1165.
- Momentum remains bearish as RSI holds below the 50-neutral level.
The Euro finalized the week posting losses of over 1.74% against the Greenback and 0.84% in the day. The EUR/USD posted four bearish days after falling below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1672, turning the pair bearishly biased. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1414.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Weekly analysis
The EUR/USD weekly chart shows the pair is dipping below 1.1450, opening the door to further downside. Momentum is bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned negative three weeks ago, after falling below the 50-neutral level.
Hence, the most likely scenario for EUR/USD is to extend its losses. The first key support level would be 1.1400, followed by 1.1300. A breach of those levels will expose the next major support area, the 100-week SMA at 1.1165.
Daily analysis
The EUR/USD daily chart shows a similar picture, though the first key support level will be the August 1, 2025, swing low at 1.1391. If breached, it opens the door to further downside, with the May 29, 2025, daily low at 1.1210. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the May 12, 2025, bottom at 1.1065.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.15% | 0.89% | 1.04% | 0.86% | 0.05% | 1.68% | 1.51% | |
| EUR | -1.15% | -0.36% | -0.11% | -0.32% | -1.12% | 0.37% | 0.34% | |
| GBP | -0.89% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.76% | 0.77% | 0.66% | |
| JPY | -1.04% | 0.11% | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.97% | 0.48% | 0.48% | |
| CAD | -0.86% | 0.32% | -0.05% | 0.19% | -0.82% | 0.73% | 0.61% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | 1.12% | 0.76% | 0.97% | 0.82% | 1.54% | 1.35% | |
| NZD | -1.68% | -0.37% | -0.77% | -0.48% | -0.73% | -1.54% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -1.51% | -0.34% | -0.66% | -0.48% | -0.61% | -1.35% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
An article of the Wall Street Journal mentioned that a Federal Judge threw out a pair of subpoenas that the Justice Department issued to the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The US District Judge James Boasberg, in a decision unsealed Friday, ruled the subpoenas were improper, a blow to the US Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation versus Powell.
Pirro, a longtime Trump ally, began an investigation into whether Powell gave false testimony before the Congress last summer about the Federal Reserve’s renovation project. Powell responded publicly on January 11, saying the probe was a pretext for Trump’s continued pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and compromise its independence.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- XAU/USD falls 0.7% to $5,032, set for weekly losses exceeding 2%.
- DXY climbs to 100.43 while US 10-year yield rises near 4.29%.
- US Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7% as Core PCE holds steady at 3.1% YoY.
Gold price loses some 0.70% on Friday. It seems poised to end the week with losses of more than 2% as the Greenback remains the choice for safety amid the Middle East conflict, which has increased investors' angst over a reacceleration of inflation. Also, a softer-than-expected reading of US growth data increased the chances of a rate cut in 226.
Bullion slips below $5,050 as rising yields, Middle East tensions boost demand for the US Dollar
The XAU/USD trades at $5032 after reaching a daily high of $5,128. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against other peers, is up 0.70% at 100.43 a headwind for Bullion prices.
Growth data from the US revealed an ongoing economic slowdown in the second half of 2025. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2025, on its second estimate, dipped from 1.4% to 0.7% YoY, according to the US Commerce Department.
At the same time, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, remained steady at 3.1% YoY in January, unchanged from the previous print, while the headline figure dipped modestly from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY.
Given the backdrop, a stagflationary scenario looms. Standard & Poor's rating agency warned that Iran's war could cause lasting supply shocks, leading to lower US GDP growth and higher inflation.
Fed expected to hold rates
US Treasury yields are also soaring, weighing on the precious metals segment. The US 10-year T-note yield rises nearly 2.5 basis points to 4.286%.
Money markets traders had priced in a less dovish Fed; they're expecting 20 basis points of easing, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Speculation of US price increases is fueled by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, after WTI prices reached a year-high of $113.00. The price of gasoline at the pump had risen by more than 20%, reaching a high of $3.60 per gallon since the commencement of the conflict two weeks ago.
President Donald Trump said the US will take strong action against Iran next week, after a 30-day waiver for buying sanctioned Russian oil.
Next week US economic docket
Traders are expected to pay close attention to geopolitical events over the weekend, and then shift their focus to the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17-18. In addition, they will monitor Industrial Production, housing statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and employment data.
XAU/USD Technical outlook: Gold to challenge $5,000 as key support level
Gold's technical picture has turned bearish in the near term, with XAU/USD poised to drop below $5,000, which could sponsor a test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,925.
Momentum has shifted bearish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has fallen below its 50-neutral level.
With that said, the most likely scenario is downwards. Beneath the 50-day SMA lies the February 17 swing low of $4,841, ahead of the February 6 daily low of $4,655. Conversely, the first area of interest for XAU/USD on the upside would be the $5,050 area, followed by $5,100. Up next lies the next key resistance level, being the March month high at $5,238.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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