Forex News
- NZD/USD softens to around 0.5645 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- RBNZ is anticipated to cut the OCR by 25 bps to 2.25% at its upcoming meeting next week.
- Traders brace for the delayed US September employment report on Thursday for clues on possible Fed action.
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5645 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the Greenback amid the imminent rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Traders will keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday.
The RBNZ decided to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by an outsized 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% in its October meeting, citing a slowing economy and confidence that inflation is under control. Data on Monday showed expectations that the RBNZ will cut its OCR by 25 bps to 2.25% next week and keep the door open for further cuts.
Many economists, including those at Westpac, BNZ, ASB, and ANZ, also anticipated a further 25 bps reduction at the November meeting. The prospect of an RBNZ rate cut could undermine the Kiwi against the USD in the near term.
Traders will closely monitor the delayed reports for signs of labor market health. The release of the US September NFP data will take center stage on Thursday. Market consensus was for 50,000 jobs added in September and an Unemployment Rate of 4.3% during the same period.
In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the USD lower and create a tailwind for the pair. According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are pricing in the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the December meeting at around 46%, down from around 60% last week.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- Australian Dollar loses ground despite the cautious RBA policy stance.
- Australia’s Wage Price Index increased 0.8% QoQ in Q3, aligning with market expectations.
- The US Dollar maintains its position amid diminishing Fed rate cut bets.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after registering more than 0.25% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued after the release of medium-impact Wage Price Index data for the third quarter.
Australia’s seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, unchanged from the previous period and in line with forecasts. Annually, wages increased 3.4%, also matching both the previous quarter’s pace and market expectations.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its November monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, indicating that board members signalled a more balanced policy stance, adding that it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected.
The AUD may regain its support amid increased expectations for a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), driven by stronger domestic employment data. As of the latest update on November 18, the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures for December 2025 traded at 96.41, reflecting an 8% probability of a rate cut to 3.35% from 3.60% at the upcoming RBA Board meeting.
US Dollar holds ground amid fading Fed rate cut likelihood
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground and trading around 99.60 at the time of writing. The Greenback receives support from declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December.
- The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 49% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 67% probability that markets priced a week ago.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted Monday that risks to the labor market now outweigh upside risks to inflation, while stressing that the Fed should proceed “slowly” with any additional rate reductions.
- Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should “lean against demand growth,” adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate.
- US Department of Labor's (DOL) released data on Tuesday showed that there were 232,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ended October 18. Continuing Claims came in at 1.957 million, up slightly from 1.926 million in the prior week. For initial claims, weekly data for the previous three weeks weren’t made available. Meanwhile, an Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that employers cut 2,500 jobs a week on average during the four weeks ending November 1.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may “never materialize,” as several agencies were unable to gather information during the shutdown. Initial private-sector reports suggest a cooling labor market and wavering consumer confidence, with persistent concerns about inflation.
- RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said last week, “Our best estimate is that monetary policy remains restrictive, though the committee continues to debate this.” Hauser added that if the policy is no longer mildly restrictive, it would have significant implications for future decisions.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Unemployment Rate on Thursday, which declined to 4.3% in October from 4.5% in September, against the market expectations of 4.4%. Meanwhile, the Employment Change arrived at 42.2K in the same month from 12.8K (revised from 14.9K) prior, sharply exceeding the market forecast of 20K.
Australian Dollar remains below 0.6500 near nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6490 on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis indicates that the pair is consolidating within a rectangular range, signalling a period of sideways price action. Meanwhile, the price remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), highlighting that bearish bias is active.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may find primary support at the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6470, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414, which was recorded on August 21.
The initial barrier lies at the psychological level of 0.6500, followed by the nine-day EMA of 0.6514. A break above this confluence resistance zone would improve the short-term price momentum and lead the pair to reach the rectangle’s upper boundary near 0.6630.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.19% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Economic Indicator
Wage Price Index (QoQ)
The Wage Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia pays close attention to it when setting interest rates. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 19, 2025 00:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 0.8%
Consensus: 0.8%
Previous: 0.8%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0872 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0856 and 7.1121 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- Gold price rises to near $4,070 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Traders will closely monitor the delayed US NFP report for September, which is scheduled for release later on Thursday.
- Hawkish US Fed comments might cap the Gold’s upside.
Gold price XAU/USD attracts some buyers to around $4,070, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rises amid the risk-off sentiment as traders brace for the long-awaited return of US economic data. The FOMC Minutes will be the highlights later on Wednesday, ahead of the US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
US NFP reports for September and October 2025 were not released as scheduled due to a US government shutdown. The delay in employment data complicates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions regarding interest rates ahead of its December meeting. This, in turn, could boost a traditional safe-haven asset like Gold.
The US employment report for September is now expected to be released on Thursday. The US economy is projected to see 50,000 jobs added in September, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay at 4.3% during the same period. If the report comes in weaker than expected, this could exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price.
On the other hand, hawkish remarks from the Fed officials tempered expectations of a December rate cut and might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the Fed should proceed "slowly" with further rate reductions. Meanwhile, several Fed policymakers, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, voiced concerns about inflation or signaled support for holding rates steady.
Traders are currently pricing in a 46.6% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Forex Market News
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