Forex News
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen reports that Hong Kong’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated sharply in 3Q26, driven by strong goods exports and investment. Chen highlights support from the semiconductors and AI supply chain, a stabilising property market and rising tourist arrivals. UOB revises its Hong Kong GDP forecasts higher for 2026 and 2027, while flagging external and financial risks.
Stronger GDP and revised forecasts
"Hong Kong’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.2% in 3Q26 from a revised 4.2% in 2Q26 (Bloomberg est: 3.7%, UOB est: 3.0%). On a seasonally adjusted q/q basis, GDP surged 1.9%, rebounding sharply from a contraction of 0.7% in 2Q26."
"The outperformance in 3Q26 was driven by goods exports (+30.4% y/y) and gross domestic fixed capital formation (+7.3% y/y). Growth in private consumption (+2.8% y/y) remained steady and government consumption (+1.7% y/y) improved."
"The semiconductors trade and Hong Kong’s role in the broader global AI supply chain continued to underpin the city’s economic growth. Domestically, consumer sentiment has softened due to uncertainties in the Middle East, rising interest rates and tighter mainland scrutiny over capital outflows. Nonetheless, the stabilising property market and improving tourist arrivals provided a cushion."
"This continued to support the recovery in retail sales. Despite moderating, retail sales value continued into its 17th consecutive month of growth in Sep."
"Factoring in the strong growth rebound in 3Q26, we revise higher our GDP growth forecasts to 5.0% (from 3.9%) for 2026 and 3.0% (from 2.4%) for 2027. The growth in 2026 will be the strongest since the post-pandemic rebound to 6.5% in 2021."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN slides 1.29% to 18.59 following Democratic congressional sweep.
- US-Iran negotiations remain uncertain as fresh sanctions threaten renewed tensions.
- Banxico expected to hold rates at 6.50% ahead of Friday's NFP.
The Mexican Peso rallies against the US Dollar following the Democratic blue sweep in the US midterm elections, with Democrats set to control the US Senate and the House of Representatives starting in January 2027. Despite this, the lack of an agreement between the US and Iran could derail the emerging market currency and boost the Greenback. The USD/MXN trades at 18.59, down by over 1.29%.
USD/MXN retreats as US election risk fades, while Iran tensions and Banxico’s upcoming rate decision pose fresh risks
The risks of US elections have passed, and the focus is on the Middle East. Recent newswires show that the course of negotiations between Washington and Tehran would be clearer on Friday, according to Al Jadeed, citing Arab diplomatic sources. In the meantime, the US Treasury issued fresh Iran-related sanctions, while US sources speaking with Al Jadeed said that the war enters a delicate phase ahead of the new US Congress taking office, in which the White House could opt for a resumption of attacks on Iran.
US economic data showed that business activity in the services sector, as measured by the ISM Services PMI, was below estimates, expanding at 54.5, down from 54.9 and below forecasts of 54.8. Some of the sub-components of the PMI declined, like the prices paid, but the employment index showed a modest recovery.
Other US data revealed that private companies hired more people than expected, according to the ADP Employment Change report, while the US trade deficit narrowed in September, with goods exports rising to a four-month high.
Ahead, the US docket will feature jobless claims figures on Thursday, followed by Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will update the status of the labour market in the US.
In Mexico, the docket was absent, but traders are eyeing the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at 6.50%, according to the latest survey and the futures market. The odds are 60% for a hold, while there’s a 39% chance that Banxico could opt for a rate cut, revealed Prime Terminal.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.6012, keeping a clear bullish bias as spot consolidates well above the triple simple moving average cluster, whose latest reading stands near 17.8508. The pair also holds decisively over the former downward resistance trend line, now a distant reference around 14.7081, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.53 has cooled from prior overbought extremes and now suggests steady but less aggressive upside momentum rather than exhaustion.
On the downside, immediate technical support is hinted by the triple simple moving average area at 17.85, which should act as the first cushion on any pullback, ahead of stronger horizontal demand at 16.89. Deeper retracements would likely find additional structural backing around the old trend-line break region near 14.71, though such a move would require a significant reversal from the current bullish configuration.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
MUFG notes that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to 6% from 4% after USD/CNY moved toward 6.65, effective 15 November. The measure is seen as locking up about USD24 billion in FX liquidity and aiming to slow CNY appreciation rather than reverse it. MUFG keeps its USD/CNY forecasts at 6.65 by end-2026 and 6.50 by Q3 2027.
Policy tweak to temper CNY strength
"In China, PBOC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to 6% from 4% after USD/CNY fell towards 6.65, effective 15 November."
"The measure is expected to lock up approximately USD24 billion in foreign exchange liquidity."
"This policy, in our view, is to reduce the pace of CNY’s appreciation against the Dollar, rather than an effort to reverse CNY appreciation trend."
"CNY’s strengthening this year has been supported by China’s large trade surplus and rising corporate FX conversion of proceeds from trade surplus to Reminbi."
"We maintain our USD/CNY forecasts at 6.65 by end-2026 and 6.50 by Q3 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Commerzbank analysts note Singapore’s October manufacturing PMI eased slightly but stayed in expansion for a 15th month, with electronics supported by AI-related demand. They argue this points to resilient Q4 manufacturing and continued GDP growth into early 2027. In FX, they highlight USD/SGD has been trading sideways in a 1.2750–1.2850 band since September and expect near-term consolidation.
Sideways USD/SGD with resilient PMI
"October manufacturing PMI eased to 51.4 from 51.7 in September, but it still marked the 15th consecutive month of expansion. The moderation reflected slower growth in new orders (52.1 vs 52.2 previously), output (51.0 vs 51.2 previously) and employment (51.1 vs 51.3 previously)."
"However, new export orders edged higher to 51.9 from 51.8 previously, suggesting that external demand remains resilient. The electronics PMI also moderated to 52.5 from 52.9 previously, although it remained comfortably in expansion territory. This was supported by sustained global demand for AI-related semiconductors and electronics. Electronics new export orders rose to 53.2 from 53.1 previously, while new orders held firm at 53.5 from 53.6 previously."
"However, the continued expansion in new export orders, particularly in electronics, points to sustained external demand and suggests that the September weakness may not signal a broader manufacturing downturn. Q3 GDP expanded by 5.4% yoy, supported by technology-related sectors, and the latest PMI readings are consistent with continued growth in Q4, albeit at a more moderate pace. Manufacturing should remain a key growth driver into the first half of 2027."
"For USD/SGD, it has traded sideways since September, holding within the 1.2750-1.2850 range. We look for continued consolidation in the near term, with oil prices and the USD to be the main drivers."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
On Wednesday, Emmanuel Moulin, the Governor of the Banque de France and a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that “banks can deal with rising rates.”
Moulin added that the solution to France's “financial problems is in France and not in Frankfurt,” hinting that Paris's main issue is fiscal policy, not monetary policy.
Key highlights:
Banks can deal with rising rates
The solution to France's financial problems is in France and not in Frankfurt
No longer risk of loop between banks, sovereigns
Skeptical on the government plan to raise the regulated savings cap
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
MUFG highlights that South Korea’s inflation data show easing headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) but sticky core inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, above consensus. Combined with strong growth and a semiconductor export boom, this should keep expectations for further Bank of Korea (BoK) tightening alive. For South Korean Won (KRW), the supportive rate backdrop and growing trade surplus are offset by uncertain foreign equity flows.
Rates and trade shape Korean Won
"South Korea’s inflation data reinforced the contrast between easing headline inflation and persistent underlying price pressures."
"Headline CPI moderated to 2.8%yoy in October from 2.9%, while core inflation remained at 2.8%yoy, above consensus."
"Combined with strong growth and the semiconductor export boom, sticky core inflation should keep expectations for further BoK tightening alive."
"For KRW, that relatively supportive rate backdrop adds to the fundamental support from Korea’s increasingly large trade surplus, although foreign equity flows remain a pivotal offset."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank’s FX strategists note the Pound rising about 0.4% intraday against the US Dollar, with UK PMI revisions having little impact. Market focus shifts to the Bank of England decision, where a 25bp hike is largely priced and further tightening expected. Technically, they see a constructive setup above the 200-day moving average, with the recovery from mid-October lows targeting the upper 1.36 region.
Pound rally supported by BoE pricing
"The GBP is pacing the EUR’s gains versus the USD, rising around 0.4% intraday. Final UK Services and Composite PMI data for October were revised slightly lower to 52.8 and 52.9 respectively."
"Beyond the USD fallout from the mid-terms, GBP attention will quickly shift to tomorrow’s BoE policy decision. A ¼ point hike is all but fully priced in at this point, with swaps anticipating a further 75bps of tightening from the BoE beyond tomorrow over the next year or so."
"A daily close above the 200-day MA (1.3425) would be constructive for the pound, a close above 1.3470 (61.8% retracement of the GBP’s Aug/Oct slide) more so. The GBP performance support our current thesis that the strong recovery in the GBP from the mid-October low (forming a major weekly reversal in the process) targets a return to the upper 1.36 area in the coming weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rebounds from 0.8127, reclaiming the 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
- Bearish RSI contrasts with a still-intact higher-high and higher-low market structure.
- A break below 0.8127 exposes 0.8100 and 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
The USD/CHF pair extends its losses during the North American session on Wednesday, hitting a nearly two-month low of 0.8127 earlier in the day as traders dumped the US Dollar (USD) in favor of other haven assets like the Swiss Franc (CHF) or the Japanese Yen (JPY). Consequently, the pair edges down 0.45% and trades at 0.8172.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Even though a previous support trendline was broken, market structure is neutral to bullish-biased. USD/CHF fell below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8227 last Monday and has since consolidated between that level and the 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, but the USD/CHF market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows remains intact.
For a bullish recovery, buyers must push USD/CHF above the 50-day SMA at 0.8227. In that outcome, the potential move back to the October 28 swing high of 0.8313 is on the cards. Once breached, the next stop is the October 14 high at 0.8395, immediately followed by 0.8400.
On the downside, bears must push the USD/CHF below the day’s low of 0.8127. After this, sellers would look for a push below 0.8100 on its way towards the 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight that the People’s Bank of China raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to slow rapid CNY gains after a 13-session winning streak. They stress the move is counter-cyclical, aimed at preserving two-way flexibility rather than reversing the appreciation trend, and note USD/CNY and USD/CNH both bounced to 6.67 on the announcement.
PBoC leans against rapid CNY gains
"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) moved to cool CNY appreciation yesterday, raising the foreign-currency reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR) by 2%-points to 6%, effective 15 November. The announcement prompted a reversal in CNY following 13 consecutive sessions of gains, the longest winning streak since 1996."
"The move was unexpected, reinforcing the PBoC's resistance to rapid currency appreciation. The gap between the PBoC’s daily fixing at 6.7150 and our estimated fixing rate of 6.6516 widened to 634 pips, the largest divergence since 10 September."
"The mechanics of the hike work by forcing banks to lock up a larger share of FX deposits, draining dollar liquidity from the onshore system and easing upward pressure on CNY. The move mirrors a similar playbook deployed in 2021, when the PBoC raised the FX RRR twice to lean against yuan strength."
"However, the measure is likely to slow the pace of appreciation than reverse the underlying trend, which remains supported by the large trade surplus."
"The FX RRR hike is widely read as a counter-cyclical signal rather than a directional reversal. The PBoC appears intent on preserving two-way flexibility and preventing appreciation expectations from becoming self-reinforcing, particularly as global investors have begun joining domestic exporters on the yuan-buying side. Further PBoC action, such as lowering the macro-prudential adjustment parameters, cannot be ruled out if appreciation pressures resume."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD holds gains as Democrats’ congressional victory sparks US Dollar selling.
- Resilient US employment and services data helps the Greenback recover some ground.
- Markets expect both the Fed and ECB to raise interest rates in December.
EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Wednesday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness following the US midterm election results. However, the pair eases from an intraday high of 1.1273 as resilient US economic data helps the Greenback regain some ground. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1235, up 0.35% on the day.
Democrats have seized control of both houses of Congress, raising the risk of political gridlock in Washington and triggering heavy selling pressure on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, down 0.40% on the day. The index has recovered from an intraday low of 101.21, its weakest level since September 30.
Meanwhile, Oil prices fall sharply as traders speculate that a Democratic-controlled Congress could restrict funding for Trump’s military campaign against Iran and increase pressure to end the conflict. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $87 a barrel, down 9% on the day.
Cheaper Oil could offer some relief to the Eurozone economy by lowering energy import costs while also easing inflation pressures globally. However, the lack of a clear path to a negotiated end to the conflict keeps uncertainty alive and leaves Oil prices vulnerable to sharp swings.
On the data front, the ADP report showed private-sector employment increased by 86K in October, beating expectations of 69K, while September’s gain was revised down to 86K from 90K. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 54.5 from 54.9, slightly below the 54.8 forecast but still indicating expansion.
The data leaves room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish stance as policymakers work to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of another rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Attention now turns to weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
In the Eurozone, preliminary October inflation data released earlier in the day keeps a December rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in play. Headline inflation rose to 4.0% YoY from 3.8%, while core inflation held at 2.5%, leaving both measures above the ECB’s 2% target.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot warned on Tuesday that “core inflation, second-round effects will likely pick up,” adding that the central bank “may have to approach [the] 2% goal more often from above.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.45% | -0.25% | -0.33% | -0.70% | -0.31% | -0.50% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.06% | -0.32% | 0.09% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.15% | -0.26% | 0.13% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.44% | -0.05% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.06% | -0.38% | 0.01% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.70% | 0.32% | 0.26% | 0.44% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | -0.09% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.38% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.19% | -0.20% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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