Forex News
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a sharp bear steepening in US yields, with 30-year rates holding above 5% for four consecutive days for the first time since 2007. Markets now price in just over one additional Fed hike between July 2026 and June 2027. Attention turns to demand at current yield levels, including the 20-year auction and upcoming Fed minutes.
Long-end yields test demand this week
"The curve sharply bear steepened alongside oil on Friday in a global bond sell off, with 30y rates continuing to trade about 5%, the first time trading above the level for four consecutive days since July 2007."
"Markets began to price in over a hike in the cycle, with 32bp priced in between July 2026 and June 2027."
"Next week, markets will be focused on demand for rates at current levels."
"The 20y bond auction on Wednesday will grab attention with focus on the long-end after Friday's sell off."
"TIC flows will be released on Monday, which will help to gauge foreign demand for the month of March. "
"It will be a light data week, with Fed minutes grabbing the majority of the attention on Wednesday, particularly with three hawkish dissents on language at the meeting."
"In addition to minutes, Waller, Paulson and Barr are scheduled to speak."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rebounds toward $76.55 on Monday after last week’s sharp correction.
- Hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations are weighing on the US Dollar and supporting precious metals.
- Elevated US Treasury yields and persistent concerns about inflation continue to limit Silver’s upside potential.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $76.55 on Monday, up 0.80% on the day at the time of writing, as the white metal stabilizes after last week’s heavy sell-off. The rebound comes as the US Dollar (USD) weakens modestly following renewed optimism surrounding possible diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran.
Market sentiment improved after a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that discussions with Washington remain ongoing. According to Iranian officials, Tehran and Washington are reviewing a recent peace proposal, while technical discussions involving Iran and Oman are focused on restoring safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The softer tone surrounding Middle East tensions has reduced demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases toward the 99.10 area after reaching intraday highs earlier in the day, providing some support for Silver and other precious metals.
However, Silver’s recovery remains limited by persistently high global Bond yields and inflation concerns linked to elevated energy prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.6%, close to one-year highs, as investors continue to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.
Rising Crude Oil prices in recent days have reinforced fears that inflation could remain elevated for longer, leading markets to reduce expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are increasingly considering the possibility that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy this year.
Higher yields tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver. OCBC strategist Christopher Wong noted that the recent surge in US yields and the stronger US Dollar had reversed part of the momentum that previously supported Silver, adding that sentiment remains fragile unless yields stabilize further.
Additional pressure on the Silver market comes from India’s recent decision to curb a large portion of Silver imports, a measure aimed at reducing pressure on the Indian Rupee. UBS analysts also recently lowered their forecasts for global Silver investment demand, citing softer industrial demand and increasing mining supply.
Despite these headwinds, the weaker US Dollar and improved market sentiment are allowing Silver prices to recover modestly at the start of the week.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman expects the British Pound (GBP) to stay on a softer footing as UK political uncertainty rises. He links intensified selling in gilts and the Pound to Andy Burnham’s move to enter Parliament and potentially challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer, alongside concerns over a leftward policy shift, higher borrowing plans, and inflation risks from the energy price shock.
UK politics seen as headwind for Pound
"In contrast to the US dollar, the pound is expected to remain on a softer footing in the week ahead reflecting heightened political uncertainty in the UK, and fears that the Labour party will shift to the left under new leadership."
"It has been reported that he has called for GBP40 billion of additional government borrowing to fund long-term capital spending."
"The unfavourable domestic political developments come at a challenging time for the gilt market which is also facing the risk of much higher inflation from the energy price shock."
"We continue to hold a short GBP/CHF trade idea in the near-term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF hesitates near two-week highs with 0.7850 holding bears.
- Hopes about progress in the US-Iran peace process have lifted market sentiment on Monday.
- The pair maintains its bullish trend intact after breaking above a descending wedge.
The US Dollar (USD) hesitates against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday after rallying nearly 1.2% in the four previous trading days. The pair, however, maintains its bullish tone intact with dips contained above 0.7850 and two-week highs, at 0.7877, at a short distance.
A spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry eased risk aversion earlier on Monday, affirming on local media that peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran are going on and flagging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These comments weighed on the US Dollar’s rally, although investors remain cautious.
Technical Analysis: USD/CHF breaks above the descending wedge pattern
USD/CHF maintains a constructive near-term tone, standing above the top of a descending wedge pattern, a figure that often anticipates a bullish outcome. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is around 60 after pulling back from overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows a moderate positive momentum.
Downside attempts remain capped above the confluence of early May highs, at the 0.7845 area and the reverse trendline, now at the 0.7835 area. A clear break below those levels negates the bullish bias and brings the May 13 and 14 lows, near 0.7800, back to the focus.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 0.7877 intraday highs. Further up, the next target is at the April 13 and 29 highs, in the 0.7925-0.7930 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.36% | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.36% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.22% | 0.18% | 0.13% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | 0.22% | 0.40% | 0.34% | 0.23% | 0.00% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.18% | -0.44% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.34% | 0.10% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | -0.01% | -0.23% | 0.18% | 0.09% | -0.22% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.36% | 0.21% | -0.00% | 0.44% | 0.33% | 0.22% | 0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.17% | 0.25% | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY's Bob Savage highlights that the Iran conflict, a drone attack in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and refinery constraints are pushing Brent toward $110, with fears of airline shutdowns and refinery limits. The UAE’s strategic exit from OPEC/OPEC+ and focus on bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, alongside expiring U.S. sanctions waivers on Russian and Iranian crude, underscore a structurally tighter Oil backdrop.
Middle East tensions keep crude elevated
"A drone attack on a UAE nuclear site, stalled talks with the U.S. and more shuttle diplomacy between Pakistan, Qatar and Iran have combined to drive oil 2% higher at the APAC open."
"The testing of Brent $110 is dominating the G7 Finance Meeting in Paris today."
"Previously producing over 3 million barrels per day (bpd), the UAE’s output has dropped to 1.8-2.1 million bpd due to the conflict in the region."
"The Trump administration has allowed the sanctions waiver on some Russian crude oil sales to expire, ending a brief easing period despite tight global oil markets caused by the Iran war."
"Abu Dhabi is accelerating the West-East pipeline project to double export capacity by 2027, aiming to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and enhance energy supply resilience."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes Japan is close to the global ‘danger zone’ in bonds as more JGB issuance is planned to fund additional spending. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called for a supplementary budget to offset higher commodity prices linked to the Iran war. Haddad expects USD/JPY to remain below 160.00 due to the risk of currency intervention.
Supplementary budget and JPY intervention risk
"The ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade remains the dominant market driver because there is no clear endgame in sight while the buffer from global oil inventories is shrinking fast. As a result, crude oil prices are edging higher, weighing on both global bond and equity markets."
"Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called today on the finance ministry to compile a supplementary budget to cushion the economy from rising commodity prices linked to the Iran war."
"Japan is not far behind, with more JGB issuance in the pipeline to finance additional spending."
"USD/JPY should hold under 160.00 due to threat of currency intervention."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United Overseas Bank's (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann turn more negative on AUD/USD after a sharp sell-off toward 0.7140. They now sees a real chance of testing and breaking the major 0.7100 support, with 0.7065 as the next downside level. Any recovery is expected to be limited below 0.7170, while 0.7205 is flagged as strong resistance on a multi-day horizon.
Australian Dollar under accelerating downside pressure
"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated last Friday that AUD “could dip below 0.7200,” we highlighted that “based on the current momentum, the major support at 0.7175 is likely out of reach.” We did not expect the downward acceleration as AUD plunged to a low of 0.7140. AUD continued to drop in the early Asian trade today, and there is a chance for AUD to test the major support at 0.7100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to hold below 0.7170 (with minor resistance at 0.7155)."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our AUD view to negative last Friday (15 May, spot at 0.7215). We indicated that “the rapid build-up in downward momentum suggests AUD is likely to trade with a downside bias toward 0.7175.” We underestimated the build-up in momentum, as AUD staged a sharp sell-off that sent it to a low of 0.7140. The rapid increase in downward momentum suggests AUD is likely to break the major support at 0.7100. The next support below 0.7100 is at 0.7065. To sustain the momentum build-up, AUD must hold below 0.7205 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.7260 last Friday). On a short-term note, 0.7170 is already a firm resistance level"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold flatlines above $4,500 after a four-day decline from $4,770.
- Renewed hopes of advances in the US-Iran peace process are weighing on the US Dollar.
- The high US Treasury yields are keeping precious metals subdued.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading flat above $4,500 on Monday, stabilising after a four-day sell-off from $4,770. Investors await developments in the Middle East conflict as a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry affirmed earlier on the day that the US-Iran talks are ongoing.
An Iranian official lifted market sentiment on Monday, stating that Washington and Tehran are analysing a recent peace proposal. The same source added on local media that Iranian and Omani technical teams were discussing options to restore safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Precious metals, however, remain weighed down by a global bond rout, amid high Oil prices. The US 10-year yields are trading at one-year highs at 4.60%, as fast-rising inflation, coupled with the solid economic data recently released, has boosted hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes in late 2026 or early 2027.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains under pressure
XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term bias following a nearly 4% decline last week. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in oversold levels, which explains Monday's consolidating tone, but the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at a slowing downside momentum rather than a clear reversal as red histogram bars contract.
Initial support lies at the $4,500 area (May 4, 18 lows). A confirmation below here would renew bearish momentum, increasing pressure towards the March 26 low at the $4,350 area.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, remain capped below the $4,560 area on Monday, although the first relevant resistance area comes at previous lows around $4,640, ahead of May 7 and 12 highs at the mentioned $4,770.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- AUD/USD turns flat at around 0.7150 after recovering from early losses.
- The US Dollar comes under pressure on hopes of a sooner US-Iran deal.
- Investors await the RBA and the FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes.
The AUD/USD pair trades flat around 0.7150 during the European trading session on Monday after recovering significant early losses. The Aussie pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down on renewed hopes that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 99.20. The USD Index fell to 99.15 from its intraday high of 99.40.
During the day, a spokesperson from the Iranian foreign ministry said, “Iran is focused on ending the war at this stage,” while confirming that negotiations through Pakistan are still going on.
US President Donald Trump also stated, in an interview with Fortune, “I can tell you one thing—they [Iran]’re dying to sign [a deal].”
Going forward, investors will focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting minutes, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades almost flat at around 0.7150 as of writing. The price holds just under the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7180, which now acts as near-term resistance and hints at a mildly capped tone. The pair still trades well above the prior uptrend support break level around 0.6992, keeping the broader advance technically intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 leans slightly lower and suggests fading bullish momentum rather than outright selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near 0.7180; a daily close above this barrier would ease current pressure and reopen the path toward the recent highs. Looking down, the pair could resume its downfall towards 0.7100 if it fails to hold the intraday low at 0.7118. A downside move below 0.7118 would export the price towards the upward-sloping trendline around 0.7000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBA Meeting Minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue May 19, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.
Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects the United Kingdom (UK) labour market to remain weak after a surprise drop in the jobless rate driven by self-employment. Raja forecasts the unemployment rate to hold at 4.9%, with elevated redundancies, softer employment intentions following the Iran conflict, and only a small decline in vacancies, pointing to a sluggish overall jobs picture.
Jobs data seen staying under pressure
"After a shock drop in the jobless rate — owing to a historic rise in self-employment — we expect things to continue as they were before: on a weaker footing."
"Indeed, the Iran energy shock has likely resulted in stalled hiring plans, with firms continuing to adjust pay growth in response."
"On the quantities side of the labour market, we expect the jobless rate to stay put at 4.9%."
"Our models continue to point to elevated redundancies – as measured by the LFS (with gross redundancies tracking between 110k and 155k)."
"Survey data too remain weak, with employment intentions falling back on news of the Iran conflict."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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