Forex News
- Australian Dollar rises to near 0.6878 against the US Dollar despite fresh increase in hawkish Fed bets.
- Hotter-than-projected US CPI data has triggered fears of Fed’s supersize interest rate hike.
- Australian Consumer Sentiment Index deteriorates to 78.2 in November.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.6845, trading 0.2% higher to near 0.6878 in the Asian trade on Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair trades higher as the Australian currency outperforms its peers; however, the outlook of the pair remains uncertain amid fears of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening.
Hotter-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October has prompted fears of a bigger interest rate hike by the Fed in the December policy meeting.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a faster pace of 0.4% Month-on-Month (MoM) against 0.3% estimates. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – arrived at 0.3%, higher than expectations of 0.2%.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said before the US CPI data release that a “half-point Fed rate hike may be needed in December, if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.50% range have emerged at around 9%, which were not even in existence before the data release.
The US Dollar has also outperformed after hot US CPI report release, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) holding onto its Tuesday’s gains around 102.25 as of writing.
On the Aussie front, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for November has come in at 78.2, down from 80.4 in October. This is the weakest reading since late 2022. Consumer sentiment in Australia has been deteriorated due to higher interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6881, keeping a bearish near-term bias after slipping below the former upwards trend-line support at 0.6910 and remaining capped by the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6962. The pair trades under these key reference levels, suggesting rallies are likely to face supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 39 stays below the neutral 50 mark, hinting that downside momentum is softening but still favors sellers.
On the topside, initial resistance is now seen at the broken trend-line support around 0.6910, with a stronger cap at the 20-day EMA near 0.6962, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure. On the downside, the lack of well-defined indicator-based supports below spot leaves the pair vulnerable to further declines, with traders likely to watch for fresh price action floors forming closer to recent lows to gauge whether sellers can extend control or if a corrective rebound starts to build.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM print compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Nov 10, 2026 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.3%
Consensus: 0.2%
Previous: 0.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
- USD/CAD strengthens as the US Dollar gains following high US CPI inflation data.
- CME FedWatch Tool suggests nearly a 91% probability of a rate hike in December.
- The commodity-linked Canadian Dollar may gain amid higher oil prices.
USD/CAD remains stronger for the second successive day, trading around 1.4190 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains stronger following the latest inflation report, which cemented market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in approximately a 91% probability of a rate increase next month.
US Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, beating the 0.3% forecast even as it slowed from September's 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, matching September's pace and topping the 0.2% estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted annual figures for October due to last year's government shutdown.
Despite these bullish inflation metrics, the Greenback may face headwinds from diminishing safe-haven demand as hopes grow for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump signaled that further military strikes against Iran might no longer be necessary, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted at a G7 meeting that major combat operations were no longer required. Simultaneously, Congressional Democrats are weighing the use of the upcoming government funding deadline to encourage the Trump administration toward a peaceful resolution.
The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $85.70 per barrel at the time of writing.
However, crude oil prices may depreciate following signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a potential diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict.
Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue’, lifting hawkish Fed tone and supporting the Dollar
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a distinctly more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 8/10, notably above the 6.8/10 historical average and underscoring heightened concern about persistent price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” that services inflation is “not coming down,” and that there is “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with” signals a clear willingness to tighten further if needed, even as the job market is described as “steady and stable.” This combination of persistent inflation worries and a resilient labor backdrop is Dollar-supportive and argues against imminent policy easing.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, reinforcing that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. In the context of the elevated FXS Speechtracker score, this move in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index suggests markets should price in a higher-for-longer Fed path, which is typically constructive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies.
(The story was corrected on November 11 at 03:05 GMT to mention the USD/CAD, and not USD/JPY pair.)
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- USD/JPY strengthens as high US CPI numbers offset reduced safe-haven demand amid easing US-Iran tensions.
- BoJ policymakers urged faster rate hikes after underlying inflation hit the central bank's 2% target.
- Several BoJ members cautioned against hasty tightening, citing soft domestic consumption and uncertainty around AI demand.
USD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 158.90 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) received firm support following the latest inflation report, which cemented market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in approximately a 91% probability of a rate increase next month.
US Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, beating the 0.3% forecast even as it slowed from September's 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, matching September's pace and topping the 0.2% estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics omitted annual figures for October due to last year's government shutdown.
Despite these bullish inflation metrics, the Greenback may face headwinds from diminishing safe-haven demand as hopes grow for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. US President Donald Trump signaled that further military strikes against Iran might no longer be necessary, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted at a G7 meeting that major combat operations were no longer required. Simultaneously, Congressional Democrats are weighing the use of the upcoming government funding deadline to encourage the Trump administration toward a peaceful resolution.
Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue’, lifting hawkish Fed tone and supporting the Dollar
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a distinctly more hawkish tone, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 6.8/10 historical average and underscoring rising concern about sticky price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” with services inflation “not coming down,” and the warning of “a real inflation issue” that the Fed is “going to have to deal with,” signals a lower bar for additional tightening or a longer period of restrictive policy, a mix that is typically supportive for the Dollar and negative for risk-sensitive currencies. Repeated references to overheating prices and the risk of inflation expectations becoming entrenched reinforce the message that policy easing is likely to be delayed unless incoming data show a clear disinflation trend.
On the Japanese Yen (JPY) side of the equation, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers voiced support for accelerating rate hikes after underlying inflation hit the central bank's 2% target, according to the summary of opinions from its October meeting. One member explicitly urged the BoJ to execute its next increase "without becoming overly cautious," bolstering expectations for a rate hike at the December meeting. However, the summary also highlighted a lingering divide among policymakers, as several members cautioned against moving too quickly amid sluggish domestic consumption and uncertain sustainability in AI-driven demand.
USD/JPY focus sharpened as rate spread fails to hold above recent highs
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that the rate differential backdrop has softened slightly, noting that "10y UST/JGB spreads narrow to 216bp (-5bp), failing to gain foothold above 220bp." They suggest this loss of momentum in the spread may help explain the more contained tone in USD/JPY as the pair consolidates near recent levels ahead of key US data.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid the prevailing USD bullish undertone.
- The US CPI and hawkish Fed officials fueled the possibility of a 50 bps hike, supporting the USD.
- Hopes for Iran diplomacy cap the safe-haven buck, supporting the pair ahead of the German CPI.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady above mid-1.1100s during the Asian session on Wednesday, consolidating the previous day's heavy losses that followed the release of hot US consumer inflation figures.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October, compared to the 0.6% increase reported in the previous month and above the market expectation of 0.3%. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was up 0.3%, matching September's increase and surpassing estimates of 0.2%. The data reaffirmed the likelihood of a potential interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December, which continues to support the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a stronger-than-expected core CPI reading of 0.3% could prompt him to consider a larger 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase at the December 8–9 policy meeting. Waller added that hiking only 25 bps would put Fed credibility at risk. Separately, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted that ongoing restrictive policy is needed to push inflation back down to 2%, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that rate hikes may need to happen at a faster pace than previously anticipated. This led to a sharp USD rally.
Fed’s Paulson leans hawkish as inflation risks keep Dollar bid
Fed’s Paulson delivered a distinctly hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.1/10, above the 7.6/10 historical average and consistent with a bias toward tighter policy. The emphasis on moving “more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens,” keeping policy “somewhat restrictive,” and acknowledging that underlying inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3% underscores a clear willingness to extend or even accelerate the hiking cycle if needed. References to a stronger-than-expected economy and robust labor market reinforce the idea that the Fed still sees room to tighten, a mix that is typically supportive for the Dollar and yields.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, with a 0.00-point move leaving the index at a firmly hawkish 145.28, signaling that Paulson’s remarks broadly matched already elevated market expectations for restrictive policy. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests that the Fed’s communication remains consistently hawkish, limiting scope for a dovish repricing in the near term.
However, hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the safe-haven buck. In fact, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday at a G7 meeting that there was no need for major combat operations in Iran. This follows President Donald Trump's comments on Monday that the US was keeping the Iran war at status quo, as he does not currently see any reason to escalate the war. This could limit the downside for the EUR/USD pair ahead of the final German CPI and speeches by the ECB’s Cipollone and Lagarde.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair holds below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1248, keeping the near-term bias bearish within a familiar range held over the past month or so. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period EMA near 1.1248, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current downside pressure. Meanwhile, bearish traders need to wait for a sustained break below the trading range support, ahead of the 1.1100 mark, before positioning for further losses.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.8%
Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Speaking in an interview on PBS Newshour early Wednesday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said that “CPI was borderline disturbing on inflation.”
Additional comments
Most troubling is that services inflation is not coming down.
We have a real inflation issue on our hands.
We are going to have to deal with that.
Inflation is cost side and demand side driven.
Business investment does get affected by interest rates.
My fear is starting to see overall overheating prices of a whole bunch of things.
At the same time job market is steady and stable.
We are going to have to come to terms with it, if inflation stays persistent.
It's a major concern if inflation gets built into expectations.
Everything is always on the table, and we must get inflation down to target.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.15% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.14% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.05% | -0.18% | -0.13% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.23% | -0.17% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | 0.15% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.17% | -0.06% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.25% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue,’ lifting hawkish Fed tone and supporting the Dollar
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a distinctly more hawkish tone, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing notably above the 6.8/10 historical average and underscoring heightened concern about price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” with services inflation “not coming down,” and the warning of “a real inflation issue on our hands” signal growing discomfort with persistent inflation and a lower bar for additional tightening or a longer period of restrictive policy. Repeated references to overheating prices, the risk of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, and the assertion that “everything is always on the table” reinforce a message that keeps rate-hike optionality alive and is broadly supportive for the Dollar.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, confirming a clear shift deeper into hawkish territory and aligning with the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score. With the index far above the neutral 100 mark, markets are likely to interpret Goolsbee’s remarks as validating expectations for a prolonged higher-for-longer stance, a backdrop that typically underpins the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia Governor Anna Paulson delivered a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's 81st Annual Field Meeting Capstone.
Key quotes
Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens.
Further ‘gradual’ rate hikes appropriate given high inflation.
Exact path of rate policy depends on how economy evolves.
Monetary policy needs to be ‘somewhat restrictive’.
Gradual rate hikes have also given fed officials space to gauge impact.
Gradual rate hikes have given economy time to adjust.
Data showed inflation remains a problem.
Has supported fed’s recent rate decisions
Underlying inflation stuck between 2.5% and 3%.
Fed has ‘more work to do’ to lower inflation.
Economy stronger than expected, job market robust and stable.
AI and energy impact on inflation hard to gauge risks to inflation outlook are high.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating hot Consumer Price Index (CPI)-inspired gains near 102.25, as of writing.
Fed’s Paulson leans hawkish as inflation risks keep rate hikes in play
Fed’s Paulson delivered a distinctly hawkish message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 8.1/10, above the 7.6/10 historical average, underscoring a tougher stance relative to the established baseline. The emphasis that the Fed “will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens,” alongside support for further “gradual” rate hikes and the need for “somewhat restrictive” policy, signals a clear bias toward additional tightening while keeping optionality for faster action. Persistent underlying inflation stuck between 2.5% and 3%, a stronger-than-expected economy, and high inflation risks reinforce the message that the Fed has “more work to do,” a combination that is typically supportive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive FX.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, with a 0.00-point move leaving the index at a still-elevated 145.28, confirming that the broader Fed communication backdrop remains firmly hawkish. The steady index reading, despite an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score for Paulson, suggests markets had largely priced in a restrictive stance, but the high level keeps upside pressure on the Dollar versus lower-yielding peers.
- Crude oil prices may fall due to signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran.
- WTI fell nearly 20% from its October peak as hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic settlement grew.
- Persistent uncertainty remains as Iran demands an end to US sanctions and blockades before entering peace talks.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $85.60 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. However, crude oil prices may depreciate following signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran.
US President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a potential diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict.
However, uncertainty persists as Iran demands relief from US sanctions and the naval blockade before agreeing to peace talks. At the same time, Middle Eastern oil shipments have nearly returned to prewar levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the US oil benchmark has fallen almost 20% from its late-October peak, reversing much of its recent gains as hopes for de-escalation strengthened and regional oil exports continued to recover.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock surged by 9.0 million barrels for the week ended November 6, marking the first stock build in six weeks. The sharp increase defied market expectations of a 1.0 million-barrel drawdown and sharply reversed the prior week's 5.267 million-barrel decline.
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that Brent crude oil "sank $4.60 to its lowest price since September, at $93.70/bbl on renewed hopes of world peace," after President Trump stated over the weekend that it is "highly unlikely" the US will order "extensive strikes on Iran, assuming Iran signs a 'very strong agreement'." They caution, however, that the definition of what constitutes a "very strong agreement" may prove "flexible, depending on how the Trump Administration plans to define 'winning' in the Middle East, after facing defeat in the US Midterm elections."
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7191 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7167 and 6.6855 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- GBP/USD attracts some buyers on Wednesday as US-Iran peace deal hopes cap the safe-haven USD.
- The BoE’s hawkish outlook lends additional support to the GBP and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.
- Odds for a jumbo 50 bps Fed rate hike in December favor USD bulls and should keep a lid on the pair.
The GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, moving away from a one-and-a-half-week low, around the 1.3300 neighborhood, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade near the 1.3350 area, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciation.
Investors remain hopeful about a potential diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war, which keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and supports the GBP/USD pair. In fact, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday at a G7 meeting that there was no need for major combat operations in Iran. This follows President Donald Trump's comments on Monday that the US was keeping the Iran war at status quo as he does not currently see any reason to escalate the war.
Moreover, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish outlook, signaling that second-round inflation effects could require further tightening, acts as a tailwind for the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, Tuesday's hot US consumer inflation figures reaffirmed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December. Furthermore, some Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, pointed to the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase.
Waller flags risk of larger December hike, lifting Dollar bulls
Fed’s Waller delivered a distinctly more hawkish tone, with a 9/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.3/10 historical average and underscoring a clear bias toward further tightening. The explicit openness to a half-point FED rate hike in December if October core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, alongside support for at least a quarter-point move even on better data, signals a low bar for additional hikes and a strong reaction function to any upside inflation surprise. Emphasis on broad-based price pressures, insufficient restrictiveness of current policy, and the need for higher real rates reinforces upside risks for US yields and supports the Dollar on a relative policy divergence narrative.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 3.17 points to 145.50, cementing the Fed’s stance deep in hawkish territory and validating the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker reading. Such an elevated index level, far above the neutral 100 mark, suggests markets should price a higher probability of continued rate hikes and a firmer Dollar path into the December meeting.
This, in turn, favors USD bulls, suggesting that any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent rejection slide from the 1.3500 psychological mark has run its course and positioning for the resumption of the GBP/USD pair's move higher from the year-to-date low, touched in October.
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair hovers just above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which together offer a constructive underlying base. The upside is capped by nearby Fibonacci resistance at 1.3365, pointing to a neutral near-term bias.
On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 38.2% retracement at 1.3365, followed by a stronger barrier at the 23.6% level around 1.3419. On the downside, first support aligns at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3322, reinforced by the 200-period SMA at 1.3314. A break lower would expose the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3279, with deeper cushions at 1.3217 and 1.3138 if selling pressure accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- AUD/USD plunges 0.88%, breaking below the psychological 0.6900 level.
- Core CPI rises 0.3% MoM, triggering Waller's 50-basis-point hike warning.
- Australian consumer confidence falls 2.7% to 78.2 amid RBA tightening.
The Aussie Dollar registers a 0.88% loss against the US Dollar on Tuesday, as a hot US inflation report has cemented the case for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the December meeting, following hawkish remarks by Governor Christopher Waller. The AUD/USD trades below 0.6900.
AUD/USD tumbles as persistent US inflation reinforces Fed tightening expectations
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.4% MoM, slowing from 0.6% but exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% decline. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items and typically offers a clearer reading of inflation, rose 0.3% MoM—above forecasts of 0.2% and unchanged from September’s print—hinting that the disinflation has halted.
The report confirmed comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said that if core CPI hit 0.3%, he would prefer to increase rates by 50 basis points, as “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.”
Recently, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman commented that persistent inflation and a firm labour market suggest that there is “still work to do.” Before her, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid didn’t think the rate was restrictive last year, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan wants “more rapid rate hikes possibly needed this winter.”
Given the backdrop, money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while the odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike are at 10%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
In Australia, the data showed that consumer sentiment fell to a four-year low in November after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates during the year. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey's main index of consumer sentiment fell 2.7% to 78.2 in November
Ahead, the Aussie economic docket is absent, as is the case in the US, with markets closed in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6870, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the latest triple simple moving average at around 0.7034 and below a broader descending trend line originating near 0.8015. Price action clings just above a cluster of rising trend-line supports from 0.6865 and 0.6833, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 37 suggests weak momentum and leaves the pair vulnerable to further downside while rebounds remain capped by overhead structure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges near the rising trend-line pivot around 0.6897, ahead of the triple simple moving average at 0.7034, with a more distant horizontal barrier at 0.7198 and the long-term descending trend line near 0.8015 reinforcing the broader cap. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the nearer ascending trend line at 0.6865, followed by the next rising floor around 0.6833 and a deeper structural base from the longer-term uptrend starting at 0.6673, where buyers would be expected to show interest on a deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.70% | 0.51% | 0.48% | 0.85% | 0.48% | 0.69% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.70% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.21% | 0.15% | -0.22% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.04% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.33% | -0.04% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | -0.48% | -0.00% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.36% | -0.01% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.85% | -0.36% | -0.15% | -0.33% | -0.36% | -0.37% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.48% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.69% | -0.22% | -0.00% | -0.18% | -0.21% | 0.15% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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