Forex News
- USD/CAD attracts buyers for the fourth straight day, though it lacks follow-through amid mixed cues.
- Sliding oil prices undermine the Loonie, while receding geopolitical risks weigh on the safe-haven USD.
- Prospects for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 favor USD bulls as traders look to the US macro data.
The USD/CAD pair trades with a positive bias for the fourth straight day and currently hovers around the 1.4070 region, or a nearly one-week high set the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction amid a combination of diverging forces, which warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from sub-1.4000 levels or the lowest since June 17.
Renewed hopes of a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz drag crude oil prices to a nearly four-week low and undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, which, in turn, is seen supporting the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, weaker oil prices ease inflation fears and temper US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Adding to this, receding geopolitical tensions weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the currency pair.
In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This comes on top of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the strategic waterway by Wednesday and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict. The remarks fueled optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war.
Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid signs that the US labor market is beginning to find its footing and looming inflation risks. Adding to this, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed the case for higher interest rates to fight inflation. This should limit deeper USD losses and support prospects for further USD/CAD appreciation.
Traders now look to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines and speeches from influential FOMC members would drive the USD demand. This, along with oil price dynamics, should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. The focus, however, remains glued to the crucial monthly jobs report from the US and Canada, due on Friday.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/JPY declines to near 181.70 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a negative tone, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 184.90, the initial support level to watch is 181.15.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 181.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as traders remain on alerts for further intervention from Japanese authorities following the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington aiming for a Wednesday announcement.
The source added that the agreement under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the critical waterway. Fresh optimism over the Middle East could improve risk sentiment and provide some support to the riskier asset, such as the EUR against the JPY.
Yen outlook seen hinging on growth rather than faster BoJ hikes
Societe Generale argues that the policy rate path alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery in the Yen. Analysts there stress that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” underscoring their view that a credible improvement in Japan’s growth prospects is a prerequisite for any meaningful policy tightening to support the currency.
Technical Analysis: Negative outlook of EUR/JPY remains intact
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day SMA, which now act as a tight resistance cluster overhead. Price is sliding toward the lower Bollinger Band while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.77 stays close to oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but may be approaching a fatigue zone.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger mid-line/20-day SMA near 184.90, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.10. A decisive daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias, with the upper Bollinger Band up at 188.65 as a more distant barrier.
On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band around 181.15 offers the first notable support, and a clear break beneath it would expose the February 12 low of 180.81, en route to the 180.00 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
US President Donald Trump said that he had very productive talks with Iran, Fox News reported on Wednesday.
Key quotes
Moving along very nicely.
We're having very good discussions with Iran.
They had an all-day negotiation today.
Negotiations were good.
Meanwhile, the Iranian state media, citing an informed source, noted that the Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman will be delayed as long as the US continues to threaten Iran.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.65% on the day at $73.87.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold gains strong positive traction on Wednesday as US-Iran peace deal hopes weigh on the USD.
- Weak oil prices ease inflation fears and temper Fed hike bets, further benefiting the yellow metal.
- The technical setup seems to have shifted in favor of bulls and backs the case for additional gains.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the second consecutive day and surges past the $4,100 mark to hit a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, along with receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets, prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling and benefits the commodity.
Despite mixed signals, investors remain hopeful about a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old US-Iran war. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict. Adding to this, Axios, citing sources, reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the strategic waterway. Furthermore, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production from September helps ease supply concerns and dragging crude oil prices to a fresh low since June 13. This, in turn, alleviates inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations, which are seen exerting pressure on the USD and supporting the non-yielding Gold.
Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid signs that the US labor market is beginning to find its footing. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings edged lower to 7.36 million but remained above levels seen last year. Adding to this, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed the case for tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates to fight inflation. This might hold back USD bears from placing aggressive bets as the focus remains on the official jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
In the meantime, Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI – will be watched for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should provide some impetus to the USD and the Gold price. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of XAU/USD bulls and supports prospects for a further intraday appreciating move.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls look to build on intraday breakout above 200-EMA on H4
From a technical perspective, an intraday breakout through the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle on the 4-hour chart validates the positive outlook. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index around 65 suggests firm bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, hinting that buyers still retain control in the short term.
However, the current up-move could start to struggle above $4,130, with overbought signals on momentum gauges likely to cap the upside if buying enthusiasm fades. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA near $4,115, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward the daily low, near $4,065, en route to the $4,043-$4,042 region, the $4,020 level and the $4,000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.16% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.31% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.34% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.13% | 0.08% | -0.02% | 0.34% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.46% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.09% | 0.28% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.12% | 0.09% | 0.35% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.34% | -0.34% | -0.46% | -0.28% | -0.35% | -0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver price jumps to near $60.95 as oil prices fall sharply.
- Investors are uncertain regarding the freedom of navigation through the Hormuz Strait.
- US ADP Employment Change and NFP data for July are awaited.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.8% higher at around $60.95 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal attracts significant bids as oil prices face a sharp sell-off amid hopes of a resolution in conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.8% lower at around $73.80.
Global inflation expectations get anchored by lower oil prices, which diminish fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Hopes for US-Iran conflict resolution are backed by comments from US officials that a deal would be reached soon. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the critical chokepoint could be reached “as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday”.
However, financial markets are uncertain regarding whether ongoing talks would restore freedom of navigation through the critical chokepoint. So far, Iran has just confirmed that it is in talks with Oman over the charge of the Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
Deutsche Bank looks for modest pickup in US July payrolls
Economists at Deutsche Bank expect a slightly firmer US labour market print on Friday, projecting that the July payrolls report will show employment growth of “+65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading,” with “private payrolls … also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously.” Set alongside their projections for a 4.2% unemployment rate, with risks skewed toward 4.3% on higher participation, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month, the bank’s forecasts point to a still‑moderate pace of job creation consistent with nominal income growth running at around 4.4% year‑on‑year.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $60.95, holding above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.05, which now underpins a constructive near-term bias. The EMA offers underlying trend support as price advances away from the recent lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.23 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is building but not yet overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.05, where a pullback could find buyers to preserve the short-term uptrend. Below that, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level. Looking up, the Silver price could extend the advance towards the July 6 high at $63.28 if it manages to stabilize above $61.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The RBI is set to leave policy rates unchanged on Wednesday.
- The Reserve Bank of India might retain the data-dependent approach for the monetary policy outlook.
- Investors will closely track comments on FCNR deposits, inflation and the economic outlook.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy decision on Wednesday at 10:00 AM IST (04:30 GMT), another meeting coming at a time when uncertainty remains high over the duration and economic fallout of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
RBI seen on hold as inflation remains within target band
Analysts at Commerzbank expect the Reserve Bank of India to maintain its current policy stance, noting that the RBI is “expected to leave the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 5.25% at its next meeting on 5 August.” While they acknowledge that “inflation risks remain tilted to the upside due to higher global commodity prices and a weaker monsoon season,” Commerzbank highlights that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print “rose 4.4% yoy, which was within RBI's 2-6% target range,” reinforcing the case for policy continuity in the near term.
The RBI is also expected to leave the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rates unchanged at 5% and 5.5%, respectively.
According to the latest Reuters poll, 68 of the 72 economists expect the RBI to leave its policy rates at their current levels.
So far this year, the RBI has maintained the status quo at all three policy meetings and has kept rates unchanged since cutting the Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% in the December 2025 meeting.
What happened in the last meeting?
In the June policy meeting, the Indian central bank raised its inflation forecast, after leaving policy rates steady, for FY26-27 to 5.1% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.6% projected earlier, citing that higher input prices such as base metals, plastic and rubber, and rising commercial Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are putting upward pressure on overall prices.
The RBI also lowered its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the current year to 6.6% from its prior expectations of 6.9%.
On the monetary policy outlook, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that it is “prudent to wait for greater clarity to emerge” and the central bank will remain “data-dependent”.
Key things to watch
Investors will pay close attention to commentary from RBI Governor Malhotra regarding inflation and the economic outlook on the back of the ongoing geopolitical crisis.
In the last meeting, RBI Governor Malhotra acknowledged heightened global uncertainty amid geopolitical risks, and said that the extended disruption in global supply chains and higher energy prices have prompted risks both to inflation and growth. However, he assured that the economy is able to “withstand these shocks with minimum pain”.
In an interview with Businessline, released last week, RBI Governor Malhotra made clear that price stability is their key priority, but policymakers don’t see any signs of price pressures entrenching. “Our primary mandate is inflation and price stability. Therefore, we will do whatever is required first, to keep price stability and then, to see to what extent we can support growth,” Malhotra said.
Investors will also focus on commentary about India’s interest rate outlook. Analysts at Axis Bank say, "The MPC is likely to shift language acknowledging risks of firmer inflation and policy action ahead, while maintaining a data-dependent approach.”
Financial markets would also be keen to know the performance of Foreign Currency Non-resident (FCNR) deposits, which were announced in the June meeting, aiming to increase the inflow of foreign funds to support forex reserves. The tool allows commercial banks to raise funds via foreign currency deposits whose full hedging cost is borne by the RBI.
India flows recover as DBS flags stronger debt, equity and FCNR(B) momentum
Analysts at DBS Group Research highlight that “the flows picture is, meanwhile, on the mend,” pointing to a “resumption in portfolio inflows into equity and debt markets as well as positive cues on the swap schemes.” They note that “July saw debt markets attract more than $2bn in inflows, bringing FYTD debt inflows to $7.7bn, while equities recorded $1.5bn worth flows following consecutive months of outflows.”
In addition, DBS cites comments from RBI Governor Malhotra, who said in an interview that “banks had mobilized a cumulative $32bn via the swap windows to-date, already surpassing the scale of inflows raised back in 2013.” Against this backdrop, DBS reiterates that “we expect the scale of the FCNR(B) deposits, in particular, to pick up in second half of the scheme’s validity period, as KYC/compliance requirements are completed,” and cautions that “at the current run-rate, our conservative estimate of $45-50bn of total inflows under the special schemes could be overshot.”
USD/INR technical outlook points to a mild bearish bias
USD/INR retains a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.72. The short-term trend structure suggests the pair is capped by this dynamic resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 keeps momentum in a neutral-to-bearish zone, hinting at a lack of strong buying conviction after the recent pullback from the 96.00 area.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 95.73, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to extend the recovery towards 96.00. On the downside, major support levels are the July 7 low at 94.80 and the June low at 94.15.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- US-Iran talks advance on an interim agreement to reopen the critical oil transit route.
- Iran reviews mine-clearing proposals, while Saudi Arabia holds mediated talks with Houthi rebels.
- US crude stockpiles rose by 2.69 million barrels, defying expectations of a drawdown.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price falls after paring its daily gains, trading around $73.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices have declined as supply concerns ease, driven by building diplomatic momentum surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, Qatari officials announced that an interim proposal had been drafted, with both Washington and Tehran signaling tangible progress toward restoring access to the critical maritime transit route. This diplomatic breakthrough follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend planned military strikes against Iran, choosing instead to give negotiations space while maintaining his call for the immediate reopening of the waterway.
Meanwhile, broader regional efforts are underway to secure key shipping lanes. Iran is currently reviewing a framework that would permit European nations to clear naval mines from the strait, alongside advancing discussions with Oman to safeguard trade routes. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia is engaging in mediated talks with Yemen's Houthi rebels via Omani channels, aiming to prevent further escalation in the adjacent Red Sea corridor.
US crude oil inventories rose by 2.69 million barrels for the week ending July 31, defying market expectations of a 2 million-barrel draw and following an increase of 3.3 million barrels the prior week. Excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), commercial crude inventories have fallen by more than 58 million barrels over the past 16 weeks and are down 7.2 million barrels year-to-date. Meanwhile, the SPR declined by another 2.9 million barrels to 304.8 million, approaching its estimated operational minimum of 250 to 300 million barrels.
Oil supply resilience underpins Saudi output assurances
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Saudi Aramco has been able to maintain operations despite recent disruptions in the region, noting that “alternative pipelines, storage and export terminals have preserved business continuity despite the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.” This infrastructure flexibility has allowed the company to safeguard output and exports even as geopolitical risks around key shipping lanes remain elevated.
According to a report from Axios, the United States (US), Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement, sources said. The report also stated that the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz Strait, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, which could be extended.
Investors would be keen to know whether Iran has been allowed to execute a toll-based system near the Hormuz. Such a scenario would dampen freedom of transport through the chokepoint that migh force ships to choose a different route.
Market reaction
The WTI Oil price has faced selling pressure after the news release. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades a little over 1% down at around $73.60.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Wednesday, “specific monetary policy means are up to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to decide.”
Additional comments
No comment on foreign officials' comments when asked about US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comment on the Yen
Expect the BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably and stably hit its price target, while working closely with the government.
No comment when asked about a report that PM Takaichi asked BoJ Governor Ueda to buy Japanese government bonds (JGB).
Govt and BoJ are communicating closely on various levels about economic and financial trends.
No comment on bond yields as they are set by the market based on various factors.
Market reaction
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining traction following these comments, dragging USD/JPY 0.22% lower on the day at 157.38, as of writing.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- US Dollar Index falls as safe-haven demand fades amid growing diplomacy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Rebounding 10-year US Treasury yields could limit the Greenback's downside amid cooling inflation risks.
- Fed's Schmid called current policy "not tight," warning that high inflation and AI-related investment could drive future price pressures.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive day and trading around 99.90 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The Greenback may continue to lose ground as safe-haven demand recedes amid growing diplomatic momentum surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatari officials announced on Tuesday that an interim proposal had been drafted, with both Washington and Tehran signaling tangible progress toward restoring access to the critical maritime transit route. This diplomatic breakthrough follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend planned military strikes against Iran, opting to give negotiations room to work while maintaining his demand for the immediate reopening of the waterway.
However, the US Dollar could find minor support from a recovery in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield after it dipped toward 4.61% on Tuesday. That initial decline in yields was driven by falling energy prices, which helped cool inflation fears and tempered expectations of a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Schmid flags AI-driven inflation risks, keeping Dollar bulls alert despite sentiment pullback
Fed’s Schmid delivered a modestly more hawkish message, with a 7.3/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 7/10 historical average, stressing that current policy is “not tight” and that inflation remains “too high” and “worrisome.” The emphasis on AI-related investment as a fresh inflation driver, the warning that recent disinflation and lower energy costs may be temporary, and the call for tighter monetary policy to secure the 2% target collectively underscore a bias toward further restraint even as growth and the labor market appear resilient and roughly balanced. By reaffirming the PCE gauge as the preferred inflation metric and cautioning against downplaying supply-shock-driven price pressures, the speech leans hawkish for the Dollar despite acknowledging recent progress on inflation.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.96 points to 145.80, signaling a slight moderation in perceived hawkishness relative to the prior reading. However, with the index still well above the 100 neutral line, the Fed remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the pullback, aligning with Schmid’s message that policy may need to tighten further even as the FXS Speechtracker score edges only marginally above the established baseline.
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