Forex News
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports Bank Indonesia kept the BI Rate at 5.75%, choosing targeted capital-flow incentives over further tightening to support the Indonesian Rupiah. BI cut hedging costs and improved macroprudential liquidity tools, echoing RBI’s playbook. Lay notes USD/IDR’s pullback gives some breathing room, but warns the Rupiah is still vulnerable and another 25 bp hike later this year cannot be ruled out.
Capital-flow tools to back rupiah
"Bank Indonesia (BI) left the BI Rate unchanged at 5.75%. In a Bloomberg survey, analysts were evenly split, with a slight majority expecting a 25bp hike. This was on the view that BI will continue to hike to support the currency and shore up investor confidence."
"The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has come under pressure this year amid higher oil prices and growing concerns over fiscal discipline and policy credibility. Governor Perry Warjiyo acknowledged that another rate hike had been considered. However, the board expressed concerns over the negative consequences on domestic borrowing costs and consumption, particularly given that it had already hiked by 100bp in two months."
"Instead, BI opted to leave rates unchanged and rely on targeted financial incentives to attract foreign capital and support the rupiah. The strategy echoes the Reserve Bank of India's approach of supporting the currency through capital-flow measures rather than relying solely on higher policy rates."
"The recent pullback in USD/IDR from above 18,200 to around 17,900 has given BI some breathing room, but the rupiah is unlikely to be out of the woods. A sustained recovery will still depend on stronger policy credibility and continued foreign capital inflows."
"Higher oil prices, renewed safe-haven demand for USD, and lingering concerns over fiscal management remain key risks. While BI has paused for now, another 25bp rate hike later this year cannot be ruled out if depreciation pressures re-emerge."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6970 as stronger US labor data and cautious market sentiment boost the US Dollar.
- US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K, well below the 212K forecast, while Trump’s comments about a possible major attack increased geopolitical uncertainty.
- Australia added 76.3K jobs in June, but the Aussie failed to benefit as traders awaited the preliminary July S&P Global PMIs.
AUD/USD trades lower near the 0.6970 area on Thursday, giving back earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the back of upbeat United States (US) labor market data and continued hostilities between the US and Iran.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K in the week ending July 18, well below the 212K market forecast and the previous revised 209K. The stronger-than-expected reading reinforced the view that the US labor market remains resilient, supporting US Treasury yields and the Greenback.
Risk sentiment also turned more cautious after US President Donald Trump said he was “considering a massive attack greater than anything before” and added that Israel would join “within two minutes” if asked. The remarks lifted geopolitical uncertainty and helped underpin safe-haven demand for the USD, limiting support for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
On the domestic front, Australia’s June employment report was broadly strong. Employment Change rose by 76.3K, far above the 15K expected and the previous 44K, while Full-Time Employment increased by 29.3K and Part-Time Employment climbed by 47K. The Participation Rate edged up to 67.0% from 66.7%, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4%, matching expectations.
Traders now look ahead to Australia’s preliminary July S&P Global PMIs, with the Composite PMI seen at 50.4, Manufacturing at 51.5 and Services at 50.5. Stronger PMI readings could help the AUD stabilize, while softer figures may leave AUD/USD vulnerable if the USD keeps advancing.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6974, holding below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7000 while clinging just above nearby horizontal and trend supports, which maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias. The 100-period SMA at 0.6959 sits beneath price and offers underlying trend support, but the latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 40 hints at fading momentum and leaves the pair vulnerable while it remains capped by layered resistance overhead.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.6979, followed by a more congested barrier at 0.6994 and the 20-period SMA at 0.7000, before a higher horizontal cap emerges at 0.7006. On the downside, immediate support is essentially at the current trading area near 0.6974, with a minor horizontal floor at 0.6964 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6959 expected to act as a deeper defensive zone if selling pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Oil near $95 is a shock for Asian energy importers but not a trigger for a broad balance-of-payments crisis. He highlights stronger current-account buffers in ASEAN and India, prior fiscal consolidation and lighter FX positioning as key supports, while urging monitoring of central bank intervention and reserve data to gauge any deterioration.
Asia FX resilience to Oil spike
"Oil at $95 is an FX shock, but not a broad Asia balance-of-payments crisis. ASEAN and India have stronger current-account buffers and lighter positioning, while the cleaner opportunity is in high-carry commodity FX such as BRL, CLP and ZAR. NOK may get oil-linked demand, but elevated holdings and limited Norges Bank buying cap the upside."
"A sharp rise in crude prices isn’t trivial for Asia’s energy importers. Taiwan and South Korea were already facing capital outflows on the financial account, and a lack of dollar liquidity will exacerbate currency weakness. However, we would not overplay the risk of destabilizing pressure or a financial-stability event."
"The region’s balance-of-payments position is also in relatively good shape. Official data indicate that in the run-up to the conflict, ASEAN and India were running the highest current-account surpluses in a decade. The reserve drain around the world in March was severe, and while this had a knock-on impact on government bond holdings globally, ultimately the process was manageable."
"Vigilance is warranted. As Bank Indonesia noted in Wednesday’s decision, the shock calls for “closer fiscal-monetary policy synergy” to bolster external resilience. Asia has made significant progress on this through Q2, and we expect that resilience to hold in the near term."
"Monitor Asian central bank intervention and oil-driven import pressure but treat Asia stress as manageable unless reserves or current-account data deteriorate."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver preserves lower-high structure as bearish momentum accelerates.
- RSI turns lower below 50, signaling sellers retain control.
- Break below $54.77 exposes $50.00 and $48.64 supports.
Silver price dives over 3.80% on Thursday as the precious metals segment tumbles amid overall US Dollar strength and heightened risk aversion amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The XAG/USD trades at $57.62 after hitting a weekly high of $60.94.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The white metal remains downward biased, despite recovering some ground after bouncing off yearly lows of $54.77. The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, an indication that the downtrend might extend in the near.term
Momentum-wise, remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed its course towards the 50-neutral level, aiming lower in bearish territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the price below the July 17 low at $54.77. Once hurdled, the next stop is the $50 milestone. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the November 21, 2025, swing low of $48.64
On the other hand, if buyers move in and drag Silver above the July 22 day’s high at $60.94, it opens the path towards challenging the July 6 high at $63.38. Above the next key resistance is the psychological $64.00, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $65.79.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day SMAs, keeping the near-term outlook mildly positive.
- The 50-day SMA at 0.7028 caps the upside, while momentum indicators show fading buying pressure.
- A break below the 200-day SMA would expose the 0.6800 support level.
AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support from stronger-than-expected Australian employment data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6966, down 0.45% on the day.
The US Dollar gains as the Middle East war lifts safe-haven demand, while the resulting surge in Oil prices adds to inflation worries and strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.6948 and 0.6896, respectively, keeping the near-term outlook mildly constructive. However, the pair remains capped by the 50-day SMA at 0.7028.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally positive, but the fading green histogram suggests that bullish momentum is weakening.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at 0.7028, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7100 and then 0.7250. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at 0.6948, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6896. A sustained break below these levels would expose the 0.6800 mark.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is tracking the broader US Dollar (USD) trend, with USD/CAD easing overnight then rebounding to trade nearly flat. Trade comments from United States (US) officials suggest limited long‑term tariff damage, while their fair value estimate for USD/CAD remains close to spot around 1.40.
CAD tracks broader Dollar trend
"The CAD is tracking the broader trend in the USD, with spot easing somewhat overnight before rebounding to start our session all but flat."
"US Trade Representative Greer yesterday offered some hope that the latest tariff blast from Washington would not undermine US/Canada trade relations in the long run and that talks could make progress towards a broader agreement before year-end."
"Our fair value estimate for the CAD is all but unchanged at 1.4013."
"Neutral—There is little change in the CAD’s technical position. Spot is pivoting around the 40-day MA (1.4074) but holding below USD resistance at 1.4125 and above initial support at 1.4060."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rises for a fourth straight day, reaching its highest level since June 2025.
- The Greenback gains as surging Oil prices reinforce Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
- SNB intervention concerns limit demand for the Swiss Franc despite the Middle East war.
USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since June 2025 on Thursday, supported by a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and strengthens Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8170, extending gains for the fourth straight day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
The war in the Middle East shows no sign of easing after the US and Iran resumed attacks earlier this month. Oil supply disruptions have now spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Ansar Allah group attacked two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea.
US President Donald Trump warned in a Truth Social post that “if they do this again, the US will hold Iran responsible,” describing Ansar Allah as a proxy of Tehran. He added that “major military punishment” would be inflicted on both Iran and the Yemeni rebel group.
Surging energy prices raise concerns that inflation could accelerate again, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September, while the probability of an increase at next week’s meeting stands near 35%.
On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K last week, well below market expectations of 212K. The previous week’s reading was revised slightly higher to 209K from 208K. Traders now await the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July, due on Friday.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) typically attracts demand during periods of geopolitical stress. However, the currency is struggling to benefit from the Middle East war as widening US-Swiss interest-rate expectations and strong demand for the Greenback outweigh its traditional defensive appeal. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to signal its readiness to intervene against excessive Franc strength, adding pressure on the currency.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- Gold is pressured by the US Dollar as Trump's threat of attack fuels its demand.
- Strong jobless claims reinforce Fed focus on inflation fight.
- PMIs, home sales and FOMC decision drive next catalyst.
Gold price (XAU/USD) loses nearly 2% on Thursday as the US Dollar stages a comeback amid growing speculation that the White House may continue its campaign against Iran, which seems poised to prolong the Gulf war. The XAU/USD trades below $4,050 after falling from a two-day high above $4,100
XAU/USD falls as war escalation lifts US Dollar and Fed risks
Tensions remain high in the Middle East after N12 reports that the US President Donald Trump is “considering a massive attack greater than anything before, I'm close to making a decision.” Recently, Kann news reported that Israel is awaiting Trump’s decision regarding the significant expansion of military operations in Iran and the possibility of Israel's involvement in them.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against the other six, is up 0.29% at 101.43, a headwind for the yellow metal, making it less expensive for foreign buyers.
A scarce US economic docket during the week left traders adrift to Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19, which were better-than-expected, easing from 209K to 187K, below forecasts of 212K. The jobless claims 4-week average dipped from 214.75K to 207.5K. The report justifies the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) focus on tackling inflation, given the strength of the jobs market.
High Oil prices are also a headwind for the yellow metal as it is positively correlated with the US Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude benchmark, rallies about 6%, reaching a daily high above $92.00 per barrel.
A solid jobs report and higher energy prices prompted investors to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike in 2026. The swaps markets now indicate a higher likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 29 meeting, with probabilities rising from nearly 33% a day ago to close to 40%.
Meanwhile, for the September meeting, the odds are at 76% for a rate hike, based on Prime Terminal data.
The US economic docket ahead will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs for July and New Home Sales data for June. Next week, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold tumbles back below $4,100, eyes on $4,000
Gold is retreating from weekly highs of $4,165, with the non-yielding metal extending its losses past $4,050. This suggests a possible trend change was short-lived, opening the door to further downside.
The downtrend market structure remains intact as long as Bullion prices remain below $4,200. Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
Gold’s first support should be $4,000. Below, the next support would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, low of $3,886, ahead of the April 22, 2025, swing high-turned-support at $3,500.
On the other hand, if buyers hope to remain hopeful of higher prices, they must overcome the $4,100 mark. Above lies the weekly high of $4,165, ahead of $4,200.
(This story was corrected on July 23 at 18:58 GMT to say that WTI rallied 6% not 14%. Additionally, WTI rallied above $92 rather than $93.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- DJIA falls around 600 points to the 51,600 area, unwinding the week's recovery as the index ends a two-week run of trading through the war.
- Trump tells Axios he is weighing a massive attack on Iran as Red Sea tanker strikes send Brent Crude Oil through the $100.00 handle.
- September hike odds jump to nearly 83% with the 10-year yield above 4.7% and jobless claims at a 57-year low.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades around 600 points lower on Thursday, down 1.1% near 51,600 in a session whose high sits within a handful of points of the opening print. The decline unwinds this week's two-day recovery, carrying the index through the prior weekly floor near 51,800 to its lowest level in roughly three weeks.
The cause of the drop matters more than its size, because equities spent eleven consecutive rounds of nightly strikes treating the war as a Crude Oil problem someone else would pay for, and the Dow led that indifference through both of this week's advances. That trade stops today, and this index, unlike its peers, has nowhere to file the damage except under the war itself.
From price list to blank cheque
The escalation driving the selling arrived in three installments, beginning with Yemen's Tehran-backed Ansar Allah movement claiming strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The attacks convert the maritime embargo Tehran's allies declared last week from rhetoric into action and stretch the war beyond the Strait of Hormuz into a second chokepoint.
Trump then formalized last week's retaliation arithmetic on Truth Social, committing the United States to destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant, including targets beside or inside Tehran, for every ship attacked in the Strait. The third installment landed through an Axios interview in which the president said he is considering a massive attack on Iran larger than anything launched so far, with a decision close and preparations complete. He volunteered that Israel would join within two minutes of being asked and gave no deadline, leaving the countdown missing only its final number.
Crude Oil translated the headlines faster than equities managed, with Brent up 7% above $101.00 for its first look over the $100.00 handle in roughly two months and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 6% higher beyond $92.00. Both benchmarks now sit at levels last seen before last month's peace framework was signed, and RBC Capital Markets argues a full regional war could carry the tape through the $128.00 high of 2022, or even the $146.00 record of 2008.
An index without an alibi
The S&P 500 trades around 1.2% lower and the Nasdaq more than 2% down, which looks worse than the Dow's showing until composition enters the picture. Alphabet (GOOGL) sheds 6% after lifting its 2026 capital spending forecast to as much as $205 billion, while Tesla (TSLA) drops 13% on a second-quarter miss. Neither name sits inside the 30-stock average, so both of those tapes carry an earnings excuse that this one lacks.
That absence makes the Dow's roughly 600-point decline the cleanest war print on the board: a price-weighted average with no capital-spending controversy and no delivery miss to hide behind still sells off nearly as hard as the S&P 500. The war-shelter divergence flagged in this week's coverage, the Dow outperforming while the bombing rolled on, has not died so much as received its first invoice.
Retail sentiment caught the mood before today's tape confirmed it, with the American Association of Individual Investors' weekly survey showing bulls collapsing to 29.6% from 44.9%, the lowest since last September, while bears climb to 42.3% against a long-run norm near 31%. A reading that lopsided often marks exhaustion in a normal regime, but a regime where the White House floats attacking Tehran's power grid is not that.
The bond market does the translating
The war reaches equities through the curve rather than through fear. The 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.7% for the first time since January 2025, the 2-year trades above 4.35%, and CME FedWatch pricing assigns nearly 83% odds to a September hike, from 52% a week ago. A war that reinflates energy is a war that re-arms a Federal Reserve (Fed) chaired by a man on record as uncomfortable with inflation above 2%.
The morning's data then removed the soft-landing counterargument, with Initial Jobless Claims falling to 187K in the week to 18 July, below the 212K consensus and the lowest level since 1969. A labour market that tight against a $100.00 Brent tape is the passthrough combination the hawkish case has forecast all year. Next Wednesday's Fed decision is no longer a placeholder either: the same pricing puts better than one-in-three odds on a hike at that meeting, a one-in-seven tail a week ago, and the December-dated curve now leans toward two hikes this year rather than one.
Friday hands the hawks a microphone
The calendar keeps the pressure on into Friday, when S&P Global's preliminary July Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) round lands at 13:45 GMT: manufacturing is expected to accelerate to 54.5 from 53.9, services is seen near 51 from 51.2, and the composite arrives from a prior 51.9. June New Home Sales follow at 14:00 GMT after May's 7.3% MoM slide. A manufacturing beat would be the threat rather than the comfort here, because every release confirming acceleration feeds the repricing that is bleeding equities today.
Technical levels to watch
Resistance: The 52,000 handle, surrendered inside the opening hour, is the first hurdle and the line any recovery must reclaim. The 52,500 area capped both of this week's advances and guards the range highs, while the record just above 53,300 stays out of the conversation until the index trades back through both.
Support: Today's low probed the 51,500 area, where the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits as the last defence of the July trend. A daily close through the average opens the late-June shelf near 51,200, with the 51,000 handle the round-number backstop beneath.
Bias: Bearish below the 52,000 handle. The index trades beneath the 51,800 invalidation line flagged in this week's map and is on track for the daily close that confirms the bullish setup's failure, leaving the 50-day EMA as the only support of consequence between the tape and 51,200. An oversold daily Stochastic reading argues for chop rather than rescue, and a daily close back above 52,000 invalidates the bearish read while putting the 52,500 supply shelf back in play.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- EUR/USD nears three-week lows as the US Dollar strengthens.
- The pair trades below the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping sellers in control.
- Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1415, while 1.1350 remains key support.
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and fuels hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, boosting demand for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave interest rates unchanged draws little market reaction.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1379, near three-week lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.40, recovering from an intraday low of 100.94.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has formed a base above 1.1350, although downside risks are building. On the daily chart, the pair retains a bearish near-term bias while trading below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1415 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1504, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1576 reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 remains below the neutral 50 mark, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, suggesting that buying momentum remains tentative despite signs of stabilization.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near 1.1415, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1504 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1576, ahead of the key horizontal resistance at 1.1700.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.1350. A sustained break below this level could expose the pair to deeper losses, while holding above it would reinforce the newly established base and keep the door open for a corrective rebound toward the nearby moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.39% | 0.36% | -0.08% | 0.30% | 0.68% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | 0.10% | 0.09% | -0.39% | 0.00% | 0.41% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.39% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.50% | -0.10% | 0.27% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.36% | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.44% | -0.07% | 0.32% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | 0.39% | 0.50% | 0.44% | 0.37% | 0.77% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.30% | -0.00% | 0.10% | 0.07% | -0.37% | 0.41% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.68% | -0.41% | -0.27% | -0.32% | -0.77% | -0.41% | -0.47% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.13% | -0.31% | 0.04% | 0.47% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
