Forex News

• USD/CHF retreats for second day as sellers gain momentum.
• RSI weakens, putting 200-day SMA support back in focus.
• Breach below 0.7906 exposes neckline near 0.7878 support.

The USD/CHF retreats for the second straight day but remains above its current weekly low of 0.7921, due to overall US Dollar weakness, triggered by the Greenback's strong correlation with falling Oil prices and traders' lack of expectation of Fed rate hikes. This provided a leg down in the pair, which traded at 0.7933, down 0.16%.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Overall, the USD/CHF is neutral to slightly upward-biased, even though the uptrend stalled after testing 0.8000. In the short term, momentum favours sellers, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which could open the door to a test of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7906.

A breach below the 200-day SMA opens the door to test the ‘inverted head-and-shoulders’ neckline, which remains in play around 0.7878, before diving towards the 50-day SMA at 0.7864.

However, if USD/CHF climbs above June’s 15 high of 0.7968, it opens the door to test June 12's daily peak of 0.7976 ahead of the 0.8000 figure. Once hurdled, the next resistance would be the March 31 cycle high of 0.8042, ahead of the 0.8100 milestone.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 17:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades with a weaker tone near the 99.50 level as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision, the first under Kevin Warsh as Chair. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged, but markets will closely watch the updated statement, projections, and Warsh’s press conference for clues.

EUR/USD trades higher above the 1.1610 area as the Euro extends gains ahead of the Fed decision.

GBP/USD trades with a neutral tone near the 1.3430 region after briefly climbing above 1.3440 earlier in the day.

USD/JPY stays elevated around the 160.40 zone despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates to 1.00% from 0.75%. The Yen failed to gain strong support as the BoJ maintained a gradual approach and signaled caution regarding bond market normalization.

AUD/USD trades muted near the 0.7070 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.35%. The RBA kept a hawkish bias and warned that further hikes remain possible if inflation stays elevated.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumped over 4%, trading near $77.10 per barrel.

Gold holds firm above the $4,340 area as traders position ahead of the Fed decision. The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that Warsh’s first meeting could shape the next leg in US yields and the Greenback.

What’s next in the docket:

Wednesday, June 17:

• UK CPI (May)
• UK PPI (May)
• UK Retail Price Index (May)
• Eurozone HICP (May)
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• New Zealand GDP (Q1)

Thursday, June 18:

• Switzerland SNB Financial Stability Report
• UK Employment Data (Apr/May)
• Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
• Germany Buba Monthly Report
• UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jun)
• New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey (Q2)
• New Zealand Trade Balance (May)
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
• Japan National CPI (May)
• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Friday, June 19:

• Germany PPI (May)
• UK Retail Sales (May)
• Canada Retail Sales (Apr)

• Oil slump eases inflation pressure before Warsh’s first Fed decision.
• Fed hike odds fall as traders await SEP projections.
• RBA and BoJ hawkishness keep central bank risks alive.

Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 0.81% on Tuesday as the US-Iran deal eased inflationary pressures, prompting traders to scale back bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates later in 2026. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,344 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,306.

XAU/USD rises as lower yields and Dollar support bullion

Geopolitical noise seems to be calming as the US and Tehran agreed to a truce, set to be signed on Friday. Consequently, Oil prices plummeted over the last two days, easing worldwide inflationary pressures and driving the Greenback lower, which is closely correlated with West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged and publish the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which presents its forecasts for economic growth, inflation, and the future path of the Fed Funds rate.

After this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will lead its first post-setting monetary policy press conference, with most investors eyeing his initial stance on policy, the balance sheet, and how often policymakers will hit the media.

Money markets are speculating that the Fed will hold rates unchanged, with 80% odds of maintaining rates, while the odds of a rate hike are 20%, according to Prime Terminal data.

Worth noting that two major central banks tilted hawkishand blamed the Middle East conflict. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates unchanged, but hinted that if inflation edges higher, further tightening would be needed.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) did its part, hiking rates by 25 basis points to 1%, but didn’t signal the path for interest rates, amid the absence of Governor Kazuo Ueda due to hospitalization.

US Treasury yields are also diving sharply. The US 10-year Treasury note yield is down nearly 5 basis points (bps) to 4.484%. This capped the Greenback advance, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, loses 0.12% at 99.54.

US data showed that the ADP Employment Change 4-week average indicated that private companies hired 25.5K people, down from 29K previously, signaling a hiring slowdown.

Ahead this week, the US economic docket will also feature Retail Sales, expected to remain at 0.5% MoM in May, unchanged, and Initial Jobless Claims.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold advances, but stalls near $4,400

From a technical perspective, Gold seems poised to trade sideways, as it would face key overhead resistance levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are in control, but buyers are gaining some near-term momentum. Nevertheless, the index remains below its 50 neutral level, indicating a bearish stance.

On the upside, Gold needs to clear a downward resistance trendline and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $4,400. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,458 ahead of the $4,500 figure. Up next lies the 50-day SMA at $4,571

For a bearish continuation, XAU must drop below $4,300 to challenge the psychological $4,250 level. Below this, the next demand zone would be at $4,200, followed by the June 11 swing low at $4,023.

• AUD/USD trades slightly lower, moving near 0.7070 after the RBA decision.
• RBA held rates at 4.35% but warned hikes may not be over.
• Fed guidance remains the next key driver for the US Dollar side of the pair.

The AUD/USD pair trades slightly lower near 0.7070 on Tuesday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to extend gains despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintaining a cautiously hawkish tone.

The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, pausing its tightening cycle after previous hikes this year. However, policymakers warned that further rate increases remain possible if inflation stays elevated.

The Australian Dollar failed to gain strong support from the decision as markets focused on signs of slowing domestic momentum. Australia’s economy expanded just 0.3% in Q1, while unemployment rose to 4.5%, giving the RBA a reason to wait before tightening again.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly steady as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but investors will watch closely for signals on whether rate hikes could return later this year.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7071, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7057 and a band of nearby horizontal supports clustered around 0.7069. Momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 56, suggesting buyers still have the upper hand, while upside follow-through has yet to decisively challenge the thicker overhead resistance layer.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.7080, ahead of the more significant cap from the 100-period SMA at 0.7106, which currently defines the upper boundary limiting further gains. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7069, backed by additional floors at 0.7057, 0.7056, and 0.7043; as long as price holds above this support stack, the pair is likely to remain bid on dips, with a clear break above 0.7106 needed to reinforce a stronger bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• Silver trades flat near $70 as traders await the Fed's monetary policy announcement.
• Technically, XAG/USD has reclaimed its 200-day SMA, which now acts as immediate support.
• Momentum indicators show signs that bearish pressure is beginning to fade, with the RSI recovering from near-oversold territory.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades virtually unchanged on Tuesday around $70.00 after reclaiming its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), as traders await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement before placing large directional bets.

The white metal is struggling to capitalize on the weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower Oil prices, which have come under pressure after the United States and Iran reached a framework agreement over the weekend.

Since the war began, Silver has traded more like an interest rate-sensitive asset than a traditional safe haven. The war-driven energy shock prompted traders to scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts and even price in the possibility of a rate hike later this year, which pushed XAG/USD down more than 30% from its pre-war levels.

However, following the announcement of the US-Iran agreement, buyers have gradually returned to the market as falling Oil prices ease inflation concerns.

Even so, traders appear reluctant to chase prices higher, with the Fed's monetary policy announcement likely to act as the next major catalyst in determining whether Silver can extend its recovery or surrender recent gains.

Technical analysis:

In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds a bearish near-term bias as price sits below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $78.54 while only marginally above the 200-day SMA at $68.74. This configuration suggests the broader trend has softened, with the 200-day SMA offering tentative medium-term support and the 100-day SMA now acting as an overhead cap.

Momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to 45.49 from near-oversold levels, suggesting selling pressure is easing. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, but the fading red histogram indicates bearish momentum is beginning to weaken.

On the downside, if the 200-day SMA fails to provide support, a sustained break below it could expose the next major support zone near $60.00. On the topside, recovery attempts are likely to face initial resistance at the 100-day SMA around $78.54. A daily close above that level would ease the bearish bias and open the door for a move toward the next resistance area near $90.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• WTI fell to a 15-week low as markets priced an imminent US-Iran peace deal.
• The memorandum is still unsigned, and the two sides disagree on what it contains.
• An earlier round of talks already collapsed into a US naval blockade this year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is in free fall, and the market is not waiting for confirmation. Front-month futures dropped roughly 5.8% on the day to test the $75 area, the lowest since early March, after Washington and Tehran signaled a draft peace framework that would lift the US naval blockade and let Iranian barrels return to market. Brent's August contract slid in step, dipping below $79 in its first move under $80 since March. The selloff is told as a supply story, yet no supply has moved; what has moved is conviction the deal is done.

A peace dividend paid before the signature

The trouble is that nobody outside the negotiating rooms has seen the text. Officials describe a memorandum of understanding (MOU) covering a reopened Strait of Hormuz, a lifted blockade, caps on Iran's nuclear work and a release of frozen assets, with the harder questions pushed into a 60-day follow-on negotiation. The US side has talked up a signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday and a Strait that reopens free of Iranian tolls, while Tehran's account of the terms has not lined up cleanly with Washington's. A former US energy adviser put it plainly this week, calling it odd to be told an agreement was struck days ago with no document yet produced. The market has decided to price the press release rather than the paper.

Burned on this script before

This is not the tape's first rally on Iranian peace noise this year, and the earlier episodes did not end well. A February thaw faded, an April ceasefire broke down, and a failed round of talks in the spring is precisely what triggered the naval blockade now in place. US officials themselves put the odds of a signature at around 80%, conceding Iran's internal politics are unpredictable, and the past week has brought street protests against the deal in Tehran alongside fresh threats of retaliation. The physical picture argues for caution, not optimism. Through mid-June, tracking showed the blockade still largely intact, with laden tankers stalled off Chabahar. According to reporting by an NGO in the region, one loaded supertanker has since cleared the cordon out of Chabahar, though the source is hardly neutral and one tanker is not a resumption of flows. The $5 repricing assumes a clean signing the recent record says is anything but guaranteed.

A clean break with air beneath it

Technically, the damage is real regardless of how the politics resolve. WTI sliced through its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $78.50, its first decisive daily close beneath that line since hostilities began in late February, then cut through $76 on the way to probing $75. The 50-day EMA up near $90 shows how far the war premium has bled out. On the intraday chart the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is buried near 12 and deeply oversold, yet every bounce this session has been sold, the signature of a one-way tape rather than a base. The daily Stoch RSI near 28 and still pointing lower argues the higher-timeframe move is not yet exhausted. The structural problem is that March's rally was nearly vertical, so beneath $75 little supports price until the pre-war shelf in the mid-$60s.

Wednesday stacks the Fed on top of the barrels

Before any signature, Wednesday stacks three catalysts on the tape, led by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision at 18:00 GMT. A hold at 3.50% to 3.75% is all but locked near 97% on CME FedWatch, so the move sits in the updated projections and the first read on a Fed leadership only weeks into the job; a hawkish lean lifts the Dollar and presses Crude Oil harder, a dovish one cushions it. The weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory print at 14:30 GMT and the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report land earlier the same day. With balances drawing hard through the blockade, a sizeable inventory draw would hand bulls a reason to fade the deal trade, while a build would confirm the demand worry the selloff already chases.

Resistance: First reclaim is $76, with the 200-day EMA near $78.50 the level that would say the break is failing, and $80 the shelf above it.

Support: The level on the block is $75; lose it on a daily close and the path opens toward the low $70s, then a long stretch of air down to the pre-war mid-$60s.

Bias: Lower while WTI holds below $76 and its 200-day EMA, with the low $70s the near-term magnet. The single largest risk to that call is binary and lands at Friday's scheduled signing. A signed deal confirms the unwind, while a slipped or collapsed signature snaps the war premium straight back, and at these oversold readings the reversal would be fast. Trade the level, respect the headline.

WTI hourly chart

• USD/CHF extends losses as easing US-Iran tensions weigh on the US Dollar.
• Markets turn their attention to the Fed's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
• Technically, USD/CHF's outlook turns neutral to bearish after failing to clear 0.8000.

USD/CHF extends losses for a second consecutive day on Tuesday as easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran weigh on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7921, down 0.30% on the day.

Despite improving market sentiment, traders remain cautious ahead of the formal signing of the agreement on Friday. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any Israeli attack on Lebanon or continued occupation of its territory would violate the interim agreement with the US.

The lingering uncertainty could limit downside in the US Dollar, in turn capping gains in the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.50.

Traders are also adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The war-driven surge in Oil prices has complicated the inflation outlook, putting the Fed's inflation mandate at risk.

While markets have fully priced in no change in interest rates at the upcoming meeting, the focus will be on forward guidance for the months ahead and how policymakers assess the recent rise in inflation.

FXStreet's SpeechTracker average scores show that six of the eleven voting FOMC members are clearly hawkish, with most of the remaining members also leaning hawkish. The analysis does not include the newly appointed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

Though the recent pullback in Oil prices has helped ease inflation concerns, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, USD/CHF's technical outlook has turned neutral to bearish after buyers failed to extend gains above the 0.8000 psychological barrier, pushing prices back toward key moving-average support.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7906, with a deeper floor at the 100-day SMA near 0.7839. A clear break below the latter would open the door to a broader correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 53, indicating that bullish momentum has moderated. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, but the fading green histogram suggests upside pressure is gradually losing strength.

On the topside, the 0.8000 mark remains the key resistance level, with a sustained move above it needed to revive bullish momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

An article published by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that, within the US-Iran deal, Tehran will be allowed to sell Oil immediately. Alongside this, the deal waives sanctions on banking and transport to facilitate transactions.

United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit, said an Iranian supertanker filled with Oil left the port of Chabahar, crossed the US blockade and was sailing out of the Gulf of Oman with its location tracker active, the first such instance since the beginning of the US blockade in April.

A senior US official said that Iran would receive sanctions relief for Oil sales, and that sustained relief would be tied to Iran fulfilling the promises agreed to in the deal, which is expected to be signed on Friday. Nevertheless, Tehran wouldn’t get immediate access to billions of US Dollars frozen by the US Treasury.

WTI Hourly Chart – Reaction to the headline

The US crude Oil benchmark tumbled to a daily low near $75.04 per barrel on the back of the WSJ report, due to an increase in global oil supply.

• USD/CAD trades around 1.3990 on Tuesday, remaining close to its recent highs despite little movement on the day.
• Ongoing progress toward a US-Iran agreement continues to weigh on Oil prices, pressuring the Canadian Dollar.
• Investors await the Fed’s monetary policy decision for clues on the future path of US interest rates.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3990 on Tuesday at the time of writing, little changed on the day as markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.

The pair maintains a bullish bias, supported by the persistent weakness of the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Oil prices remain under pressure as investors continue to welcome diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. According to the Swiss Foreign Ministry, the memorandum of understanding between the United States (US) and Iran is scheduled to be signed on Friday in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. This development has fueled expectations of smoother global energy flows and contributed to the recent decline in Crude Oil prices.

Lower Oil prices remain a negative factor for the Canadian Dollar, as the currency is closely tied to Canada’s energy exports. This dynamic extends the pressure recently seen on the Loonie, while investors also monitor Canada’s economic outlook and the future policy direction of the Bank of Canada (BoC).

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly stable ahead of the Fed meeting. Investors widely expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, but attention is focused on the Summary of Economic Projections and the updated dot plot. Market participants will look for signs of whether the recent rise in energy prices and higher inflation have encouraged policymakers to adopt a more hawkish stance regarding the future path of interest rates.

Meanwhile, the latest US economic data continue to point to signs of moderation in the labor market. The four-week average of the ADP Employment Change report showed that private companies added 25.5K jobs, down from the previous reading of 29K, suggesting a gradual slowdown in hiring activity.

In addition, the earlier surge in energy costs has already contributed to higher US inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.2% YoY in May, its highest level since April 2023. However, improving relations between the United States and Iran have recently helped push Oil prices lower, which could ease some inflationary pressures over the medium term.

The combination of a resilient US Dollar ahead of the Fed meeting and a Canadian Dollar weighed down by lower Oil prices is therefore keeping USD/CAD near its recent highs, with investors now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections for guidance on the pair’s next directional move.