Forex News
- Silver faces pressure as Middle East tensions raise oil prices, boosting Fed rate hike bets and depressing non-yielding assets.
- CME FedWatch tool shows a 35.8% chance of a July Fed hike and an 82.1% probability for September.
- Geopolitical tensions surged after Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers, prompting the US to conduct strikes on Iran.
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after registering over 4% losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. However, higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are strengthening bets on Fed rate hikes, threatening to weigh on non-yielding Silver.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran.
Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD rebounds to around 1.3325 in Friday’s Asian session.
- The US launched the 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran.
- Traders await the UK June Retail Sales report on Friday for fresh impetus.
The GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3325, snapping the five-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East. Traders brace for the release of the UK Retail Sales data, which will be published later on Friday.
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could underpin the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven currency. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it launched its 13th consecutive night against Iranian targets. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment,” per the Guardian.
Traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75% next week as it continues to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict. Financial markets were pricing in one or possibly two quarter-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2026, little changed from Tuesday, according to Reuters.
The UK Retail Sales data could offer more clues about the UK interest rate path. Retail Sales are expected to show a decline of 0.3% MoM in June, compared to a rise of 1.2% in May. In case of a surprise upside reading, this could reinforce the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain an aggressive tightening stance, supporting the Cable.
Pound steadies as markets look for BoE to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%
Analysts at Scotiabank note that policy expectations remain firmly anchored ahead of next week’s BoE decision, with “markets … expecting no policy change at the next MPC rate decision, where the Bank Rate is expected to be held at 3.75%.” This steady policy outlook, they suggest, continues to frame near-term trading conditions for the Pound against the US Dollar as investors look toward upcoming UK data for further direction.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CAD meets with a fresh supply amid a softer USD, though the downside seems limited.
- Retreating oil prices, the divergent BoC-Fed expectations, and Trump’s tariffs favor USD bulls.
- Traders look to flash US PMIs for some impetus as the focus remains on the FOMC next week.
The USD/CAD pair attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the 1.4070 zone, down 0.10% for the day amid a softer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, hold above the previous day's swing low and remain on track to register modest gains for the first time in three weeks.
Crude oil prices retreat from the highest level since June 11 amid some profit-taking heading into the week. Adding to this, divergent Bank of Canada (BoC) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations, along with US President Donald Trump's new tariffs, contribute to keeping a lid on the commodity-linked Loonie. Moreover, the underlying USD bullish tone warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets on the USD/CAD pair.
This week's soft Canadian consumer inflation figures reaffirmed bets that the BoC will keep interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026. In contrast, traders have been pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid concerns about energy-driven inflation. Apart from this, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran should help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is set to impose sweeping new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 of the top trading partners, covering nearly all of the country's imports. This further tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and favors USD bulls, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before confirming that the USD/CAD pair's recovery from over a one-month low has run out of steam.
Traders now look forward to the release of the flash US PMIs, which might influence the USD. Furthermore, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis will drive oil price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair amid a broadly constructive setup. The focus will then shift to the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC meeting next week, which will help in determining the near-term trajectory for the Greenback and the currency pair.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/USD may fall as escalating Middle East tensions drive up oil prices and fuel Fed rate hike expectations.
- President Trump threatens massive military strikes against Iran and plans new 10% to 12.5% global import tariffs.
- The ECB held key interest rates steady while warning that persistent energy shocks present ongoing inflation risks.
EUR/USD gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1380 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may regain strength, largely driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East that threaten to push crude oil prices higher. An oil-driven inflation spike has fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume raising interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran. Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Simultaneously, trade concerns are mounting after Bloomberg reported that the United States plans to impose new tariffs ranging between 10% and 12.5% on imports from major trading partners. This marks a major effort to rebuild the Trump administration's trade barrier following a recent Supreme Court ruling. Under this plan, imports from the European Union will face tariffs of at least 10%, structured to remain compliant with existing US-EU trade agreements.
Market participants process the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy decisions. While the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% medium-term target, it cautioned that high uncertainty persists and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike in June, the ECB opted to hold its key interest rates steady, keeping the deposit facility, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, respectively.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a verbal intervention on Friday, saying that authorities prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange.
Key quotes
US Treasury's forex report referenced US Japan joint statement calling excessive currency swings undesirable.
Won’t discuss specific currency levels.
Japan and U.S. maintain round-the-clock communication.
Ready to act appropriately on currency shifts whenever necessary.
Prepared to take decisive steps on forex.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.02% on the day at 163.83.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- AUD/USD edges higher as Australia’s flash PMIs reaffirm RBA rate hike bets and lift the Aussie.
- Energy-driven inflation fears fuel hawkish Fed expectations and benefit the USD amid Iran risks.
- Traders look to the US PMIs for some impetus as the focus shifts to the FOMC meeting next week.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's slide back to the weekly trough. The mixed fundamental backdrop, however, warrants caution before confirming that the corrective slide from a nearly five-week high, around the 0.7025 area, touched on Tuesday has run its course and positioning for the resumption of the uptrend from the June low.
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its strong weekly gains to the highest level since June 26 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. A further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran remains supportive of the recent rise in crude oil prices to the highest level since June 11, which has been fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump's new trade tariffs temper investors' appetite for riskier assets and further underpin the safe-haven Greenback. According to a notice released by the office of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the Trump administration is set to impose sweeping new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on 60 of the top trading partners, covering nearly all of the country's imports.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), however, draws support from the better-than-expected release of domestic flash PMIs, signaling a second consecutive month of expansion for the broader private sector. This follows Thursday's upbeat Australian employment details and reaffirms bets for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which helps limit the downside for the AUD/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to flash US PMIs, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, incoming geopolitical headlines will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Meanwhile, the focus will remain glued to the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting next week, which should determine the near-term trajectory for the buck and the AUD/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jul 23, 2026 23:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.6
Consensus: -
Previous: 50.4
Source: S&P Global
- USD/JPY steadies around 163.90 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Japanese CPI inflation rose to 1.7% YoY in June from 1.5% in May.
- Trump vowed to punish Iran for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
The USD/JPY pair holds steady near 163.90 during the early Asian session on Friday. However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains near a multi-decade low against the US Dollar (USD). The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be published later on Friday.
Data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday showed that Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.7% YoY in June, up from 1.5% in May. Meanwhile, the core CPI came in at 1.6% YoY in June, versus 1.4% prior. The figure came in line with the market consensus. This is the first rise in core inflation since March.
The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food and energy, fell to 1.7% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 1.8%. This figure registered the lowest since August 2022.
This reading came just days before the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Japan’s National CPI inflation report has little to no impact on the JPY as traders are on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Wednesday warned markets that authorities stood ready to take “appropriate and bold action.” Katayama added that Japan’s policy on potential intervention remained unchanged and that it would take action if necessary.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the Greenback against the JPY in the near term. Reuters reported on Thursday that US President Donald Trump said the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment.”
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7939 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7906 and 6.7795 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- Escalating US-Iran conflicts and Red Sea attacks drive sharp fears of global oil supply disruptions.
- Trump warns of massive military retaliation following Houthi strikes on Saudi oil tankers.
- Global shipping reroutes, and Black Sea loading halts further choke critical crude export routes.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $90.20 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. However, WTI crude price is on track to surge over 10% this week. The dramatic rally comes as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoke intense fears of widespread global oil supply disruptions.
Fueling the market anxiety, the United States has launched its 13th consecutive day of strikes against Iran, with both nations firmly ruling out near-term diplomatic talks. Tensions flared further after President Trump threatened "major military punishment" against Iran and Houthi forces over any subsequent strikes on Red Sea shipping, while noting that he is considering a "massive attack" on Iran itself.
These severe warnings follow recent strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The targeted waterway serves as a vital alternative export corridor for Saudi Arabia, particularly as ongoing combat continues to snarl vessel movement through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the growing peril, Asian importers have already begun discussions to reroute Saudi crude shipments through the Suez Canal and around Africa. Compounding the regional supply squeeze, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended crude loadings at its Black Sea terminal following tanker attacks, effectively choking off approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The United States (US) will impose new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct US President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
The duties target key economic partners, including the United Kingdom (UK), China, the European Union (EU), Canada, Japan and India. They come in on Friday, as a temporary 10% levies on foreign goods introduced earlier this year expires.
The fresh measures follow an investigation into the alleged failure of around 60 economies to prevent forced labor in their supply chains to the detriment of American workers. According to the Federal Register, goods from some 10 trading partners deemed to have adopted forced-labor restrictions will be subject to 10% tariffs, including Mexico, the UK, Canada and India.
Tariffs on items from the EU and Taiwan will be at least 10%, and products from Japan, Switzerland and South Korea will be taxed at at least 12.5% in a way that complies with the trade agreements they reached with the US. Products from dozens of others will face a 12.5% charge.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.02% on the day at 101.43.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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