Forex News
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH price action as fading in downside momentum and now largely range-bound between 6.6900 and 6.7000 in the short term. Over 1–3 weeks, they still warn that a break and close below 6.6900 could trigger a move toward 6.6800. On a 1–3 month view, they expect the pair to keep edging lower while below 6.7815.
USD/CNH downside risk below 6.6900
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following the relatively sharp drop last Friday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Downward momentum has increased, but not significantly. Today, USD could dip below 6.6900, but it remains to be seen whether downward momentum will strengthen sufficiently for it to maintain a foothold below this level. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 6.6985.” Our view did not materialise, as USD dipped to 6.6907 before recovering to close largely unchanged at 6.6950 (+0.02%). Downward momentum is fading, and the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 6.6900 and 6.7000."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (12 Oct, spot at 6.6940), we highlighted that “if USD breaks and closes below 6.6900, it may lead to a move toward 6.6800.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as USD holds below 6.7050 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
On Tuesday, the Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) main focus is inflation, while adding that I “expect inflation to stay above 2% due to high energy prices.”
Collins supported the rate hike at the September meeting, adding that the labour market is balanced, and that AI data-center buildout is “pressuring inflation readings.”
Key highlights:
Elevated risk of high inflation is the Fed's main focus right now
Future path of monetary policy in new year will depend on data
Expect inflation to stay above 2% due to high energy prices
Job market is broadly balanced
I supported the Fed raising rates at the September meeting
The US economy has shown resilience in the face of shocks
I expect more growth and job market stability
A stable job market should support consumer spending
Data-center build out is pressuring inflation readings
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.45% | -0.34% | -0.46% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.03% | 0.20% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.35% | -0.03% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.26% | -0.15% | -0.28% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.45% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.15% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.13% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.20% | -0.09% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- GBP/JPY extends gains as buyers challenge descending resistance near 210.00.
- RSI approaches the neutral level, signaling improving momentum despite broader consolidation.
- Break above 210.00 exposes 211.28 and 50-day SMA at 211.84.
The GBP/JPY pair extends its modest gains for two straight days this week, up 0.16% on Tuesday, as the cross-pair continues to consolidate near the 210.00 figure with no clear bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifts higher towards its 50-neutral level, an indication that buyers are stepping in.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
As of writing, a downslope resistance trendline near 209.80-210.00 is being tested by buyers, who were quickly rejected on Monday after hitting a weekly high of 209.99.
Worth noting that the day’s price action shows buying pressure building after GBP/JPY reached the day's low below 209.00, respecting a support trendline tested three times, indicating further upside.
A decisive breakout above 210.00 puts into play the September 18 cycle high of 211.28. Further gains are seen beyond that area, with the 50-day SMA seen as a key supply zone at 211.84.
Conversely, for a bearish continuation, GBP/JPY must drop below 209.00 and clear the support trendline, which caps losses, with the next support at 206.89, the September 30 low.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.38% | -0.34% | -0.17% | -0.45% | -0.34% | -0.46% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.38% | 0.03% | 0.21% | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.07% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | -0.03% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.14% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.17% | -0.21% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.45% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.16% | -0.11% | -0.12% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.13% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Japanese Yen (JPY) as somewhat firmer, with USD/JPY pulling back from the upper 158s on comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi about close US-Japan FX contact. They describe spot as choppy, note officials may resist back-to-back hikes, and see neutral momentum with support around 157.75 and limited impetus to retest 160.
Yen firms on FX comments despite BoJ rate caution
"The JPY is somewhat firmer on the session, with gains from the upper 158 region driving an intraday rise that outpaces most of the core major currencies. Spot is choppy, however, with markets adjusting to various reports on the session."
"BoJ Governor Ueda and PM Takaichi commented on close US-Japan contact on FX, supporting the JPY rebound. However, further reporting also suggested that BoJ officials are leaning against a back-to-back interest rate increase this month."
"Neutral – Spot peaked around the 200-day MA earlier but losses are not significant enough to signal more downside risk in the USD at this point."
"Daily trend momentum is neutral, suggesting little impetus for a push higher in the USD to retest the 160 area at this point. Support is 157.75."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to slightly steepen its S$NEER policy band slope on Wednesday. With tightening largely priced in, the immediate Singapore Dollar (SGD) reaction may be muted. While a steeper slope should support SGD, persistent US Dollar (USD) strength and elevated US Treasury yields could limit gains.
Policy slope support versus strong USD
"Focus on Wed’s MAS policy decision and 3Q GDP. SGD softened modestly against the USD on Monday, although the move remained contained despite broader USD strength and elevated US Treasury yields."
"With expectations for another slight tightening already largely priced in, the immediate SGD reaction may be muted unless MAS delivers an element of surprise, either through a more aggressive adjustment or an unexpected hold. The accompanying GDP estimates and MAS’ assessment of inflation risks will also shape expectations for the policy path ahead."
"Beyond Wednesday, we expect USD direction and US Treasury yields to remain important drivers of USD/SGD. While a steeper S$NEER slope should provide underlying support for SGD, sustained USD strength and elevated US Treasury yields could continue to constrain gains against the USD."
"USD/SGD was last at 1.2810 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI fell modestly. 2-way trade still likely, as we keep a look out for rallies to fade into."
"Resistance at 1.2820 (100 DMA), 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740/50 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high, 50 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that Fed Funds forward pricing may be nearing the end of its third upward leg this year, with current expectations just below 5% and the US Dollar (USD) having risen alongside each repricing. He notes that further upside in terminal Fed Funds pricing likely requires a significant upside surprise in US core Consumer Price Index (CPI), limiting additional Dollar strength from rates.
Fed repricing and Dollar response
"We appear to be coming to the end of the third leg up in Fed pricing this year. These uplifts in 12-month forward pricing of (effective) Fed Funds, have each taken the Dollar higher."
"Repricing 1-year forward rates from 3.2% to 3.8% at the start of the Gulf crisis helped the DXY above 100; 4.2% dragged the DXY above 101 and getting rate pricing above 4.5% has seen DXY reach 102.the current pricing is just below 5% for the headline Funds rate, which is 20bp higher than the highest of the 65 forecasters in the Bloomberg survey, and 50bp above the consensus."
"Questions about how high bond yields could get have been a feature of many recent conversations. The fact that 10year notes yielded 13% and Fed Funds were above 15% on my first day at work in 1984 is a reminder not to be too surprised by higher yields (the low yields of the post-GFC period were every bit as unusual as the high ones of the early 1990s), but the spike in bond yields will do some work for the Fed and tomorrow’s core CPI data will have to come in well above the consensus 2.5% print, if we are to see any further uptick in market pricing of terminal Fed Funds."
"The dollar has, mostly, tracked US rate expectations higher. That doesn’t have to continue, however."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF declines 0.18% to 0.8331 as US Dollar demand weakens.
- Fed's Williams sees one more rate hike in 2026, none in 2027.
- US CPI and PPI data will shape December Fed hike expectations.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) registers gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as risk appetite improves and energy prices retreat, weighing on the Greenback, which failed to advance even as US Treasury yields soared ahead of the US CPI release. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.8331, down 0.18%.
USD/CHF slides despite elevated Treasury yields as Fed policy expectations shift
The Greenback is pressured despite positive housing data, with Existing Home Sales rising from 3.93 million to 3.99 million, for a 1.5% rise. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average cooled from 25.25K to 24.75K, revealing a low-hiring, low-firing environment and a solid US jobs market.
Meanwhile, geopolitics remained the main driver of financial markets. Newswires reported explosions in Saudi Arabia as the Houthis warned of attacks on Oil facilities. At the same time, the Yemeni Deputy Defense Minister said that the battle with the Houthis is “open” on all fronts, reported Al Hadath.
In the meantime, US Treasury yields edged lower as New York Fed President John Williams said in a Bloomberg News interview that he sees another rate hike in 2026 but none in 2027.
Money markets do not expect a Fed rate hike in October, with odds slim at 23%, but do expect one in December, with odds at 90%.
Ahead, the Swiss economic docket is absent, with traders leaning on US dynamics. Inflation figures on the consumer and producer side are widely expected to provide clues for the potential future of interest rates.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8326. The pair holds above the cluster of simple moving averages (50, 100 and 200-day SMA) around 0.8172 and is trading north of the rising parallel channel top near 0.8277, which together suggest a firm bullish near-term bias. The broader uptrend support line, now coming in at the break area around 0.8479, stays overhead and outlines the next structural objective, while a moderately elevated Relative Strength Index (14) near 60.95 hints at constructive but not yet overbought momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the latest close itself at 0.8326, followed by the former channel ceiling at 0.8277 and the channel floor at 0.8205, before the grouped long-term SMAs around 0.8172. On the topside, the rising trend-line break zone at 0.8479 acts as the next key resistance level; a sustained move through this barrier would open the way for an extension of the current advance, while failure to do so could trigger a corrective pullback towards the 0.8277–0.8205 support band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.42% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.46% | -0.39% | -0.49% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.42% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.37% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.12% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.27% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.02% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Euro (EUR) is marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) on the softer USD tone, with ECB Governor Stournaras signalling continued gradual tightening. They judge EUR/USD retains a soft undertone and may be overshooting, as front-end spreads and risk reversals adjust, while their fair value model points to equilibrium around 1.1250, above current spot.
Euro edges up as ECB stays gradual
"The EUR is marginally higher on the day, reflecting the generally softer tone of the USD. ECB Governor Stournaras remarked that the central bank will likely stick with its policy of gradual monetary policy tightening."
"Final German September CPI was confirmed at 3.3% in the year. The EUR retains a soft undertone but spot pricing may be overshooting somewhat."
"Front-end spreads have narrowed a little from the early October levels and short-term risk reversal pricing has pared the premium for EUR puts somewhat. Our fair value model suggests spot equilibrium sits around 1.1250 currently."
"EUR/USD short-term technicals: Neutral/bearish – Bearish pressure on the EUR may be moderating but there is little indication from short-term price action that a rebound is developing."
"Intraday price signals suggest a minor low may be developing around the mid-1.11 area. But short-term trend resistance remains intact at 1.1215 and a push above this area is the bare minimum the EUR needs to achieve to strengthen in the short run."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
On Tuesday, Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin appeared at Howard University and said 2 percent inflation isn't a unicorn and that “we can hit it,” adding that Fed policymakers see the impact of AI investment on US inflation.
Barkin commented that it is clear that inflation is “enduring,” and acting “makes sense.”
Key highlights:
2% inflation not some unicorn, something we can hit
We can see impact of AI investment on US inflation
It is clear that inflation is enduring, acting makes sense
It seems clear at this point that shocks are continuing
Doing something about inflation makes sense.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.47% | -0.37% | -0.49% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.16% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.35% | -0.04% | 0.13% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.15% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.37% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.14% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
On Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams, a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he believes “disinflationary forces are at play,” and added that “one more interest-rate hike is appropriate this year.”
Williams commented that there are no signs the jobs market is contributing to inflation and added, “AI is the inflation driver I am watching most closely.” He added that he doesn’t see a rate hike in 2027.
Key highlights:
I still believe disinflationary forces are at play
No sign the labor market is contributing to inflation
I am not seeing broad price pressure outside AI and energy
AI is the inflation driver I am watching most closely
The reason for a September hike ‘starts from risk management’
The rate path will be about maintaining a balanced economy
Currently sees no need for rate hike in 2027
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.50% | -0.36% | -0.48% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.36% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.30% | -0.16% | -0.28% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.14% | -0.13% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.28% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | -0.14% | -0.11% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.11% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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