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The US Dollar (USD) kept its upside impulse well in place for yet another day on Thursday, this time climbing to the area of six-month highs backed by declining bets for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its December meeting. Collaborating with the Greenback’s strengthening, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised to the upside in September, showing that the economy added 119K jobs.

Here’s what to watch on Friday, November 21:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced past the 100.00 barrier to hit new multi-month highs despite declining US Treasury yields across the curve, while investors kept assessing the hawkish FOMC Minutes and the firmer-than-expected NFP data. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs take centre stage at the end of the week alongside the final U-Mich Consumer Sentiment index and speeches by the Fed’s Williams, Barr, Jefferson and Logan.

EUR/USD weakened further on Thursday, exposing a potential test of the key support at 1.1500. The advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the euro area will wrap up the domestic calendar ahead of the ECB’s Negotiated Wage Growth figures and speeches by the ECB’s Lagarde, De Guindos and Machado.

GBP/USD was the outperformer among its risk-linked peers, ending the day around

1.3070 following an earlier move past 1.3100 the figure. An interesting UK docket will feature the GfK Consumer Confidence gauge, seconded by Retail Sales, Public Sector Net Borrowing figures and the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

The march north in USD/JPY remained unabated on Thursday, with spot approaching the 158.00 mark and trading at shouting distance of the yearly peaks just shy of the 159.00 barrier. Japan’s Inflation Rate takes centre stage followed by the Balance of Trade results and the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

AUD/USD broke below its critical 200-day SMA, slipping back toward the 0.6430 zone and exposing further weakness in the next few days. The advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be next on tap Down Under.

WTI prices added to Wednesday’s deep retracement, breaching below the $59.00 mark per barrel despite shrinking US stockpiles and sanctions on Russian oil.

Gold could not sustain its recent gains, reversing two daily advances in a row and coming close to the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce as traders continued to scale back bets of a Fed rate cut next month. Silver prices faded two daily gains in a row and receded to the vicinity of the $50.00 mark per ounce on Thursday.

• The New Zealand Dollar slips as near-certain expectations of another RBNZ rate cut weigh on sentiment.
• US Dollar remains supported as traders scale back bets on near-term Fed easing.
• Attention turns to NZ trade figures and US flash PMIs releases on Friday.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pares early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as near-certain expectations of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keep the Kiwi under sustained pressure. At the time of writing, NZD/USD is trading around 0.5593, easing after a brief, volatile spike to 0.5639 in the immediate reaction to the release of the delayed US labour data.

Earlier in the day, markets received the first official US employment data in weeks after delays caused by the government shutdown. The September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 119K, strongly beating the 50K forecast, while August was revised down to show a 4K decline instead of the originally reported 22K increase. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.4%, slightly above expectations for 4.3%.

Additionally, the Labour Force Participation Rate improved slightly to 62.4% from 62.3. Wage growth came in softer than projected, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM against the 0.3% estimate, while annual wage growth stood at 3.8% YoY, marginally above the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours held steady at 34.2.

The mixed labour data did little to alter expectations around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Markets had already been trimming rate-cut bets after a series of cautious comments from Fed officials, who warned that another cut in December could risk reigniting inflation pressures. Some policymakers acknowledged that the labour market is cooling, but stressed that it remains resilient, reinforcing the argument for a careful and measured approach to easing.

In New Zealand, markets are awaiting next week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting, with another rate cut already fully priced in. Traders widely expect the central bank to deliver another round of easing after October’s surprise 50-basis-point cut, with softening inflation expectations, weak business confidence and subdued domestic demand all reinforcing the case for lower rates.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor New Zealand’s October trade data due on Friday, including Exports, Imports, and the monthly and annual Trade Balance readings. In the US, focus turns to the S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for November, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and its accompanying inflation-expectation measures.

• Gold falls 0.38% as strong NFP lift the US Dollar, reversing the earlier rally toward key resistance.
• Mixed jobs report shows 119K gains and higher unemployment, while Fed officials warn inflation remains elevated.
• Rate-cut odds edge up to 36%, but Fed minutes show many policymakers oppose easing in December.

Gold (XAU/USD) retreats on Thursday during the North American session following the release of the September US jobs report, which fared better than expected, crushing forecasts. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,061, down 0.38%.

Bullion trims gains on upbeat US data, hawkish Fed commentary denting rate cut chances

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for September and the Unemployment Rate. The data was mixed as the NFP figures doubled estimates of 50,000, but the latter rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, still within the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) projections.

On the data, Gold prices rallied to the daily high of $4,110, before making a U-turn on hawkish comments by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michael Barr, who surprised by saying that he is worried that inflation is still at 3%.

Money markets show odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December meeting lie at 39% up from 30% a day ago, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Expectations for a rate cut tumbled on Wednesday as October’s minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that “many participants” were leaning against reducing the fed funds rate at the December meeting.

Daily market movers: Gold retreats amid falling US Treasury yields

• September Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 119K, exceeding estimates of 50K, and up from August's -4K. The Unemployment Rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.4%, though it remained below the Federal Reserve’s projection of 4.5% for 2025.
• The Department of Labor also revealed Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 came at 220K, its lowest level since September, an indication that the labor market, despite softening, remains stable.
• Regarding the future NFP report, the BLS canceled the release of October’s data and combined it with November’s print. The report will be featured on December 16, after the last Fed meeting of December 9-10.
• Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that easing monetary policy now could encourage financial risk-taking. “Cutting rates risks prolonging high inflation,” she stated, and added that “financial conditions are ‘quite accommodative’ right now.”
• Recently, Fed Governor Michael Barr said that he is concerned about inflation still at 3%, leaning hawkish.
• Fed’s October meeting minutes showed that policymakers lowered interest rates despite warning that the move could heighten the risk of inflation and undermine public confidence in the central bank.
• Morgan Stanley no longer expects a cut in December, following the jobs data.
• The US Dollar is virtually unchanged as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance versus six currencies, remains steady at 100.15. Contrarily, US Treasury yields are diving, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield down 5 bps to 4.08%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Gold prices, are also plummeting to 1.81% down five bps.

Technical analysis: Despite retreating, Gold is bullish above $4,000

Gold’s uptrend remains intact even though Fed officials turned hawkish, and the chances for a cut are slim. However, price action suggests that sellers could be in control once XAU/USD drops below the November 18 swing low of $3,998, ahead of testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,954.

Still, the path of least resistance indicates that once Bullion crosses above $4,100, buying pressure could drive Gold towards $4,150 before testing the last cycle high of $4,245, November’s 13 peak.

• AUD/USD declines toward 0.6440 on Thursday, down 0.30% as traders await Australian PMI data.
• Comments from Sarah Hunter reinforce expectations of an RBA cautiously monitoring inflation pressures.
• The US Dollar remains supported by mixed NFP data and expectations of a still-restrictive Federal Reserve stance.

AUD/USD trades lower around 0.6440 at the time of writing on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) adopts a cautious tone ahead of the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November due later in the day. Investors are also digesting recent signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which increasingly point to a central bank attentive to the persistence of inflationary pressures.

The RBA’s cautious message was reinforced by comments from Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who warned on Thursday that “sustained above-trend growth could fuel inflationary pressures.” She also noted that monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the central bank will not react to a single month of figures. Hunter added that the RBA is closely monitoring labour-market conditions to gauge the economy’s supply capacity and is assessing whether the transmission of monetary policy may be evolving over time.

Her comments echo the RBA’s November Minutes, which suggested that an extended period of unchanged rates could be appropriate if economic data continue to outperform. Stable Q3 wage growth, strong labour market figures last week, and persistently high inflation all support the idea that the easing cycle has likely ended. ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show that the December 2025 contract implies only a 6% chance of a rate cut to 3.35% from 3.60%.

In the United States (US), the US Dollar (USD) retains moderate support following a mixed labour report. September’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119K, far above expectations for 50K, but this strength was offset by a downward revision to August, an uptick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.4%, and slower wage growth at 0.2% MoM. This mixed picture adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path, especially with the October jobs report postponed due to the US government shutdown.

Investors remain cautious ahead of the December Fed meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price only a 31.8% chance of a December rate cut, down from nearly 50% a week earlier. The hawkish tone in the October FOMC Minutes, along with comments from officials such as Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michael Barr, who remains concerned that inflation is still near 3%, has limited expectations for near-term easing.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Downward pressure continues

AUD/USD 4-hour chart. Source: FXStreet

In the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6447, down for the day. It sits 35 pips below the day’s opening price. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) trends lower around 0.6518, reinforcing a bearish bias. Price holds beneath this gauge, and the downward slope keeps rebounds capped. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 36, below the 50 midline, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A descending trend line from 0.6580 restrains upside, with resistance emerging near 0.6495.

Support is seen at 0.6440, then at 0.6415. Resistance aligns at 0.6495, followed by 0.6580 and 0.6630. A break beneath the first support could expose the next level, while a push above the initial resistance would open the path toward the subsequent barriers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

• USD/CAD strengthens as fading Fed rate-cut bets keep the US Dollar supported.
• US labour data paints a mixed picture, combining stronger hiring with softer wage momentum and a slight rise in unemployment.
• Canada’s producer prices extend their monthly gains, but the Canadian Dollar struggles to capitalize.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the Greenback holding firm as markets scale back expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.4074, hovering near a two-week high amid broad USD strength.

The delayed September US labour report delivered a mixed but generally Dollar-supportive tone. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 119K, comfortably beating the 50K forecast, while August was revised to a 4K decline instead of the previously reported 22K gain. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4% versus expectations for 4.3%, and the Labour Force Participation Rate improved to 62.4%.

Wage data came in softer than projected, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% MoM compared with the 0.3% estimate. On an annual basis, earnings increased 3.8% YoY, marginally above the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours remained steady at 34.2.

However, with the October jobs report postponed, the September dataset has taken on greater importance ahead of the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting. The US Dollar continues to find demand as markets reassess the Fed’s near-term policy outlook. Traders now assign only a 39% probability of a December rate cut lower than the roughly 50% priced a week ago.

Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials also supported the cautious policy outlook. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that cutting rates too early could distort market pricing and prolong inflation, while Fed Governor Michael Barr said policymakers must tread carefully, balancing support for the labour market with the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Barr added that he remains concerned that inflation is still running near 3%.

In Canada, producer price data offered a generally firm picture for October. Statistics Canada reported that the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 1.5% month-over-month, marking the fifth straight monthly increase. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) also climbed 1.6%, supported by higher prices for metal ores and concentrates, although crude energy prices declined amid persistent global oversupply. While the data point to rising cost pressures within Canada’s industrial sector, they failed to meaningfully support the Loonie.

Federal Reserve (Fed) governor Lisa Cook said in remarks prepared for delivery at an event hosted by Georgetown University's business school on Thursday. She said that the US financial system is resilient and that she sees an increased likelihood of outsized asset price declines.

Key takeaways

US financial system is resilient.

Sees increased likelihood of outsized asset price declines, though it is not a risk to financial system.

Doesn't see private credit posing current threat to Financial stability, but it's worth keeping a close eye on it.

Hedge fund trading strategies in Treasuries pose a potential risk to market liquidity.

Generative artificial intelligence use in trading raises concerns, could have benefits, and must be watched carefully.”

• Gold is range-bound despite a stronger-than-expected NFP report.
• Improved risk appetite after Nvidia’s upbeat earnings limits safe-haven demand.
• A firmer US Dollar also weighs on the metal as markets scale back expectations of a December Fed rate cut.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades a little changed on Thursday, moving in a tight range as traders digest the mixed set of delayed September US jobs data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,080, easing after briefly climbing above the $4,100 psychological mark.

The mood across markets has brightened after Nvidia delivered strong earnings, sparking a rebound in global equities and easing safe-haven flows into Gold. On top of that, a stronger US Dollar (USD) as investors scale back expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) is adding pressure and limiting the metal’s upside.

Markets saw a sharp repricing of rate expectations after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the October Employment Situation Report will be released together with the November data. In addition, the hawkish-leaning Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes published on Wednesday reinforced expectations that the Fed may leave interest rates unchanged in December.

Market movers: US Dollar steady after upbeat NFP surprise

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.18, hovering near its highest levels since August and revisiting the territory last seen on November 5.
• September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 119K, comfortably beating expectations for a 50K increase. August’s reading was revised to a 4K decline instead of the previously reported 22K gain. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.4%, modestly above the 4.3% estimate and unchanged from the prior month.
• Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% MoM in September, slightly below expectations for 0.3% and softer than the 0.4% increase seen previously. On a yearly basis, wages grew 3.8%, matching the prior reading and coming in just above the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours held steady at 34.2, in line with expectations.
• The October FOMC Minutes tilted hawkish, with several policymakers observing that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained above the 2% goal, while progress toward disinflation had stalled. Many participants judged that further rate cuts were not necessarily appropriate at the December meeting. The Minutes also noted that although most participants favored October’s 25 bps cut, some of them said they could have supported leaving rates unchanged.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed on Wednesday that the October payrolls report has been postponed after the government shutdown prevented officials from collecting key data, including inputs needed to calculate the unemployment rate. The missing October figures will now be released together with the November jobs report on December 16, reducing the data available to the Fed ahead of its December 9-10 FOMC meeting.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 31.8% probability of a December rate cut, down from about 50% a week ago. Attention now turns to the delayed September NFP report, which could shift expectations again. Economists forecast payrolls to rise by roughly 50K, compared with the 22K increase recorded in August.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD clings to $4,050 support as 100-SMA keeps bears in check

On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is consolidating just above a key confluence support zone around $4,050, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is offering immediate technical support. As long as the price holds above the 100 SMA, the short-term outlook remains constructive. However, a clean break below this confluence zone would weaken the technical bias and open the door toward the $4,000 mark.

On the upside, Gold continues to face strong resistance in the $4,100-$4,150 band. A decisive breakout above $4,150 would be needed to revive bullish momentum, paving the way for a move toward $4,200, with further follow-through buying potentially exposing $4,250 next.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe is hovering near 45, reflecting a neutral-to-slightly bearish momentum setup. A recovery in the RSI through the 50 midline would help improve bullish traction.

(This story was corrected on November 20 at 14:31 GMT to say that Gold is trading with little change on Thursday, not Wednesday.)