Forex News

• WTI price slumps to near $100.00 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• Crude oil inventories rose by 7.14 million barrels in the week ended September 11, API said. 
• Traders remain glued to developments in the Middle East after an Iran-backed attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $100.00 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI falls after an unexpected build in US crude inventories. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding the Middle East conflicts as Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at its Yanbu port. 

US crude oil inventories see an unexpected weekly build, weighing on the WTI price. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending September 11 climbed by 7.14 million barrels, compared to a decline of 300,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a fall of 1.8 million barrels. 

Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil loadings ‌at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port had been paused after the world's biggest crude exporter shut its East-West pipeline following an attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on Friday.

Saudi Arabia has used the pipeline to reroute around 4 million barrels per day, or about 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea port. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that the closure was a brief interruption that will last days. Meanwhile, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that “judging from the on-line pictures, it will take months to repair.” Concerns over supply disruptions could boost the black gold in the near term. 

Oil balances tighten as Rabobank flags dwindling inventories and SPR strain

Analysts at Rabobank warn that the latest supply disruption is unfolding against an increasingly fragile backdrop, noting that "the new disruption comes as crude inventories continue to decline globally and SPRs are beginning to hit worrisome levels." In their view, this combination of falling stocks and strained strategic reserves underpins a structurally tighter market and reinforces their higher WTI price profile for the coming years.

Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $100.05. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds comfortably above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $85.36 and the 20-day Bollinger middle band around $90.05, indicating firm underlying demand after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 69, hinting at strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum as price approaches the upper Bollinger band.

On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the upper Bollinger band near $102.75, and a clear daily close above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around $90.05, with the 100-day SMA at $85.36 and the lower Bollinger band near $77.36 providing deeper levels where buyers could look to re-emerge if a corrective phase develops.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• USD/JPY advances to a one-week high on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through buying.
• USD bulls pause for a breather ahead of the Fed decision and cap the upside for spot prices.
• A more hawkish BoJ repricing helps limit deeper JPY losses and further keeps a lid on the pair.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers for the third straight day and touches a one-week high, around the 155.45-155.50 region, during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through as traders seem hesitant ahead of the key central bank event.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) concludes its September policy meeting today and is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Investors, however, will keep a close eye on updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot, and Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks during the post-meeting press conference for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

The immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to remain limited amid a more hawkish repricing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) normalization path. In fact, traders now seem to have fully priced in a 25 bps rate hike at the end of a two-day meeting on Friday and see a greater possibility of a follow-up move in December. This, in turn, might hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, investors remain worried about energy-driven inflation risks, which underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007. This, along with geopolitical risks, might continue to underpin the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair holds well above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and maintains a constructive bullish intraday bias. The 38.2% Fibonacci level at 155.65 marks the first upside hurdle, with the 50% retracement at 156.55 and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at 156.81 reinforcing a broader supply zone.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% retracement around 154.54, while a deeper pullback toward the Fibonacci anchor near 152.75 would be needed to seriously challenge the prevailing bullish structure on the 4-hour time frame.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,341.32 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,240.35 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 155,611.10 per tola from INR 154,432.90 per tola a day earlier.

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

• Asian stocks rise modestly on Wednesday as investors await the crucial Fed rate decision.
• Oil-driven inflationary concerns and hawkish central bank expectations weigh on sentiment.
• Escalating geopolitical tensions might contribute to keeping a lid on any optimistic move.

Asian equity markets trade with modest gains on Wednesday, tracking stability in US stock index futures, though sentiment remains cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. High oil prices, escalating Middle East tensions and surging bond yields also kept markets on edge.

The US central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of a two-day meeting later today. Furthermore, energy-driven inflation fears underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. Hence, the market focus will be on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks during the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the broader risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, oil prices touched the highest level since May 20 on Tuesday amid growing concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East. This could directly drive up wholesale and retail inflation worldwide, which might prompt central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007.

At press time, South Korea’s KOSPI was up around 1.25% for the day, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 and India’s Nifty50 rose around 0.25%. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 gained over 0.50% as traders keenly await the widely expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike on Friday.

• USD/CHF declines as the US Dollar weakens ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
• Strong US inflation data drives a 92.4% market expectation for a Fed rate hike.
• OECD raised Swiss growth forecasts to 2% after strong exports fueled a five-year Q2 peak.

USD/CHF halts its five-day winning streak, trading around 0.8180 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair inches lower as the US Dollar (USD) depreciates ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the Greenback may rebound as hotter-than-expected, released last week, US inflation data that solidified expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Financial markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, which would lift the benchmark overnight rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Data from the CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are pricing in nearly a 92.4% probability of this quarter-point increase, alongside expectations that the Fed will signal additional rate hikes ahead.

Strategists at UOB Group note that they “turned positive on USD late last week,” and reiterate that while “upward momentum continues to build,” it remains “currently unclear whether it is sufficient for USD to rise to the significant resistance at 0.8205.” They point out that after their latest update on 14 Sep, when spot was at 0.8165, USD/CHF “subsequently rose to 0.8195,” underscoring the improving tone. However, UOB cautions that “given the overbought conditions, USD must break and hold above 0.8205 before a move to 0.8245 can be expected.” On the downside, they stress that “to keep the momentum going, USD must not break below 0.8130,” noting that the “strong support” level had been at 0.8110 previously.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has emphasized the urgent need for structural tax and pension reforms to safeguard long-term fiscal stability. This call to action comes as the country faces mounting spending pressures driven by a rapidly aging population and intensifying geopolitical challenges.

Despite these structural headwinds, the OECD significantly upgraded its economic growth forecast from 1.1% to 2%. This upward revision follows a remarkably strong second-quarter performance, where economic expansion hit 1.5%, marking its highest level in five years, largely propelled by a weaker Swiss franc that provided a strong boost to domestic exporters.

• UK inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.1% YoY in August from 2.9% in July, driven in part by higher energy prices.
• Core inflation is also expected to pick up, while further energy and food price pressure looms.
• The data comes one day before the BoE’s decision, with policymakers expected to keep rates unchanged.

The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT.

The inflation report could trigger volatility in the British Pound (GBP), as it comes just one day before the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, but another acceleration in price pressure could strengthen expectations of an interest rate hike in the coming months.

What to expect from the next UK inflation report?

The UK Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 3.1% YoY in August, up from 2.9% in July, moving further away from the BoE’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to increase by 0.5% in August, following a 0.3% rise in July.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco components, is also expected to accelerate to 2.7% YoY from 2.6% previously. A simultaneous increase in headline and core inflation could fuel concerns at the BoE about persistent price pressure.

The expected acceleration in headline inflation comes as the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East continue to feed through to UK energy costs. UK Finance notes that transport prices rose 9.1% YoY in July and that pump prices increased again in August, with a litre of unleaded petrol reaching its highest level since November 2022.

Inflationary pressure could also persist beyond the August report. UK energy regulator Ofgem has confirmed another 4% increase in the energy price cap from October, following the increase implemented in July.

Risks also appear to be spreading to food prices. The latest Worldpanel by Numerator data showed that grocery price inflation accelerated to 2.3% YoY in the four weeks to September 6, from 2.1% in the previous report. Meanwhile, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) expects food and non-alcoholic drink inflation to reach 3.9% in December before exceeding 6% in 2027, due in part to higher energy costs, logistical disruptions and weather conditions.

This pressure could further complicate the disinflation process. The BoE projected in July that headline inflation would peak at around 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, while judging that risks to its inflation outlook were tilted to the upside. Bloomberg Economics now estimates that higher energy costs could push UK inflation above 4% in 2027.

How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD?

Wednesday’s release is particularly important for GBP/USD as it comes on the eve of the BoE’s monetary policy decision. Economists widely expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. All 65 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll conducted between September 4 and 8 expect the BoE to remain on hold on Thursday, while 57 of them anticipate rates staying unchanged through the end of the year.

Markets, however, are taking a more hawkish view. According to Morningstar, interest rate markets see a potential first BoE rate hike as early as November and are pricing in three increases by mid-2027.

Divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) add to the importance of the inflation report. At the July meeting, three of the nine committee members voted for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate increase, up from two members previously.

The key debate for the BoE, however, remains whether the energy shock is generating more persistent second-round inflation effects. According to Reuters, citing HSBC UK economist Elizabeth Martins, the BoE has indicated that it would consider a policy move if second-round effects emerged, but current conditions are unlikely to be enough for policymakers supporting unchanged rates to switch their votes.

A report showing headline and core inflation above expectations could nevertheless change the picture. Such a surprise would reinforce concerns that energy-related pressures are beginning to spread more broadly through the economy and could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in the coming months. In this scenario, the British Pound could attract fresh demand, pushing GBP/USD higher.

Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation, particularly in the core measure, would strengthen the argument that the energy shock remains largely temporary and is not yet generating persistent domestic price pressure. This could reduce expectations of BoE monetary tightening and weigh on the British Pound.

A release broadly in line with expectations could quickly shift attention toward the composition of the report, particularly services inflation, as well as the BoE’s vote split and policy message on Thursday. With a September rate hike still considered unlikely, the key question for markets could be whether the acceleration in August inflation is strong enough to bring the next rate increase closer.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3529 and a confluence of resistance around 1.3550 marked by the 100-period SMA and a horizontal cap, while a downward-sloping trendline continues to weigh on rallies. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers in the high-30s, hinting that downside momentum remains in place even as price stabilizes just above nearby supports.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 200-period SMA around 1.3529, with a denser barrier near 1.3550 where the 100-period SMA aligns with horizontal resistance, ahead of the 1.3570 level and the overarching descending trendline. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3480, with further cushions at 1.3464 and 1.3434; a clear break below this support band would open the door to an extension of the current bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• AUD/JPY gathers strength to near 110.70 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• The cross keeps a negative outlook, with bearish RSI momentum. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at 112.45; the key contention level is located at the 100.00 psychological figure. 

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 110.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as rising energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East raise import expenses for Japan’s oil-dependent economy.

Analysts expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting on Friday. This would bring the highest borrowing costs for Japan since April 1995.

"We expect the BoJ to hike 25 bps at the upcoming meeting on 16-17 September," said OCBC Group Research analysts. "We have pencilled in 2 additional hikes of 25bps in 2027, and we expect these hikes to be front loaded should the BoJ continue its hawkish rhetoric after the September hike is delivered," they added. 

Traders will closely monitor the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech about the pace of future rate hikes and how far the central bank could take rates under the current tightening cycle. Hawkish comments from Ueda could boost the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross in the near term. 

BoJ seen delivering pre-emptive hike as Japan data and inflation risks firm

Analysts at Standard Chartered expect the BoJ to raise the policy rate by "25bps to 1.25% at its 17-18 September meeting," while stressing that the central bank is likely to "avoid an overly hawkish message." They argue the economy appears able to absorb another modest hike, noting that "Q2 GDP growth was revised up, exports remain robust, investment indicators are resilient, and real wages are rising." At the same time, they highlight that "inflation risks are also increasing as higher energy prices and earlier JPY weakness pass through the supply chain," reinforcing the case for a pre-emptive move even as policymakers remain cautious about the broader pace of normalisation.

Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a bearish vibe below the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The pair is drifting within the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.04 stays close to oversold territory, which suggests persistent downside pressure, even if a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the August 10 low of 112.45, en route to the Bollinger middle band near 112.60. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 100-day SMA at 112.95, with the upper Bollinger band around 115.90 acting as a more distant cap if a stronger recovery unfolds.

On the downside, the next notable support level is seen at the 100.00 psychological level. Further south, the next contention level to watch is the lower Bollinger band at approximately 109.25, followed by the March 31 low of 108.79, and the February 16 low of 107.73.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Gold reverses a modest Asian session dip on Wednesday as US Dollar bulls pause for a breather.
• Fed rate hike bets, surging US bond yields and geopolitical risks should limit deeper USD losses.
• Any meaningful appreciation for the bullion seems limited ahead of the key FOMC rate decision.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $4,275 region during the Asian session on Wednesday, though the upside potential seems limited. The US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather after touching a two-week high and offers some support to the commodity. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the key central bank event.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision later today and is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of its September 15–16 meeting. The focus, meanwhile, will be on the Fed's updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding Gold.

Meanwhile, energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further tightening by the Fed. In fact, crude oil prices shot to a fresh high since May 20 on Tuesday amid growing concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing led to an extended global bond selloff, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023 and to its highest level since 2007. Adding to this, escalating Middle East tensions should continue to underpin the safe-haven USD, which might cap the Gold price.

In the latest developments, Saudi Arabia issued security alerts over ​a range of territory – ​including the holy city of Mecca and the second-largest city, Jeddah – following a week of attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has promised to respond “firmly” to missile and drone strikes by the Houthi group, raising the risk of further escalation of the regional conflict. Moreover, the US Central Command said it has redirected 103 commercial vessels as part of its blockade on Iranian maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting oil prices and favouring USD bulls.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis

The precious metal has been showing some resilience below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is now trading just above the 50% retracement level of the July-August upswing. That said, momentum oscillators have softened, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the 50 line. This, in turn, suggests that the upside traction is moderating even as the Gold stays above a key moving average.

Hence, any further move up could confront initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,413, which is followed by a stronger hurdle at the 23.6% retracement around $4,520, where prior supply could re-emerge. On the downside, immediate support aligns first at the 50.0% retracement close to $4,326, reinforced by the 50-day SMA at about $4,280. A break below the latter would expose the 61.8% retracement near $4,240 and deeper retracement supports at approximately $4,116 and $3,959.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• US Treasury Yields hit a pause after a gigantic rally to near 5.04%.
• Warnings on surging AI investment force rally in US bond yields to hit a pause.
• The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates later in the day.

United States (US) Treasury Yields have hit a pause after posting a fresh multi-year high on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement later in the day.

In the Asian trading session on Wednesday, 10-year US Treasury Yields are 0.5% down to near 4.98%, correcting from its historic highs of 4.04% posted the previous day.

US Treasury Yields retreat as Anthropic CEO and co-founder Dario Amodei warns against surging global investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure. “I won't lie to you – there are real dangers," Amodei said and added, "And I think for too long the industry lied to people about the fact that this technology had risks."

This statement has also led to a significant decline in semiconductor and AI chipmakers stocks. The issuance of a significant amount of US bonds by hyperscalers to fund gigantic AI investment was also one of key driving factor behind surging Treasury Yields.

According to Goldman Sachs, five major hyperscalers are expected to issue about $250 billion of bonds in 2026 and another $400 billion in 2027. This is more than double the investment amount of $108 billion made for the whole of 2025, Reuters reported.

Broadly, the outlook of US Treasury Yields remains firm on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue on the monetary tightening path even after hiking interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% later in the day.

Strategists at BNY said that “while we expect a hike on Wednesday, and probably one more this year, we think the path to even higher policy rates is strewn with potential impediments to significantly tighter policy.” “The nearly 100bp of hikes (equivalent to four hikes of the standard 25bp increment) currently priced in will be realized,” but they caution that, although they are “not ready to see shorter-maturity yields fall any time soon,” these yields “may ultimately prove to be ahead of themselves,” BNY added.

• NZD weakens following hawkish Karen Silk's resignation announcement amid rising inflation concerns.
• NZ consumer confidence rebounded to 89.5 in Q3 2026 but remains in pessimistic territory.
• Strong US inflation data drives a 92.4% market expectation for a Fed rate hike.

NZD/USD extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5750 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair faces downward pressure primarily due to a weakening New Zealand Dollar (NZD) following the departure of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Karen Silk.

Silk, who was considered a prominent hawk on the policy board and frequently highlighted upside risks to inflation, has rattled market sentiment with her December exit. Investors currently price in aggressive tightening from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, projecting the official cash rate to rise from 2.75% to 3.0% by December and reach 3.75% by mid-2027. While the central bank previously forecasted a lower peak of 3.1%, recent surges in global oil prices have heightened broader inflationary risks.

New Zealand's economic landscape presents a mixed picture for consumer sentiment. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index saw a notable rebound in the third quarter of 2026, rising to 89.5 from the previous quarter's low of 80.4. Despite this improvement, the index remains firmly in pessimistic territory as households continue to grapple with high fuel prices, elevated interest rates, and ongoing living cost pressures.

Compounding the NZD/USD pair's decline is a strengthening US Dollar (USD), bolstered by hotter-than-expected US inflation data that solidified expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Financial markets broadly anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, which would lift the benchmark overnight rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Data from the CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are pricing in nearly a 92.4% probability of this quarter-point increase, alongside expectations that the Fed will signal additional rate hikes ahead.

Fed seen delivering insurance hike as August CPI nudges FOMC majority

Analysts at ABN Amro reiterate that “our base case is a 25bp hike,” arguing that the move would be an insurance step rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. They note that this view rests on the assessment that “the August CPI report likely shifted the narrow FOMC majority,” tipping the balance in favour of another increase without materially altering the broader economic outlook.