Forex News
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has rebounded from deeply oversold levels after dropping to 1.1324, with price action now viewed as consolidation in a slightly higher 1.1345–1.1395 band. They still hold a negative medium-term stance, saying Euro bears need a close below 1.1325 to target 1.1280, while a break of 1.1420 would invalidate the downside scenario.
Slide seen overstretched but downside risk lingers
"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR dropped to a low of 1.1324 on Wednesday and then rebounded. Yesterday, we pointed out that “the rebound from deeply oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to decline, EUR is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.1330 and 1.1385.” EUR then traded between 1.1333 and 1.1388, closing modestly higher by 0.11% at 1.1369. The price action still appears to be part of a consolidation phase, but the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1345/1.1395 today."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our negative EUR view from last week , we highlighted yesterday (25 Jun, spot at 1.1355) that “the steep decline appears to be overstretched.” We also highlighted that EUR “must close below 1.1325 before a move to 1.1280 can be expected.” We will continue to hold this view as long as 1.1420 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CAD drifts lower to near 1.4190 in Friday’s early European session.
- July Fed hike odds fall to roughly 28.9% from 34.2%, CME FedWatch showed.
- BoC policymakers agreed to keep monetary policy nimble, minutes showed.
The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.4190 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data eases US rate hike expectations. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report will be the highlight later on Friday.
The headline PCE surged 4.1% YoY in May, marking the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023, but it matched expectations, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. On a monthly basis, the PCE increased 0.4%, below the market consensus of 0.5%.
Analysts believe that with oil prices falling to pre-war levels on Thursday after the US and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal, inflation likely peaked last month or is close to doing so.
Financial markets have priced in nearly a 28.9% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the central bank's July meeting, down from 34.2% in the prior session, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hold interest rates at current levels for the remainder of this year. Also, minutes from the BoC’s policy meeting did little to reverse a wider gap between US and Canadian interest rates. This, in turn, could cap the upside for the Loonie.
Minutes of the meeting showed that the governing council agreed to keep its monetary policy nimble to respond to new US trade restrictions, the impact of energy prices, or both playing out at the same time. Traders expect 17 basis points (bps) of tightening from the Canadian central bank by December, down from about 60 bps last month, according to Reuters.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- NZD/USD may test the primary support at the descending channel's lower boundary around 0.5620.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 28 signals oversold conditions.
- The initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.5703.
NZD/USD continues its losing streak that began on June 17, trading around 0.5650 during the Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the spot price is moving downwards within the descending channel, reflecting a persistent bearish bias.
The NZD/USD pair is keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5703 and the 50-period EMA at 0.5820. The alignment of short and medium EMAs above price suggests continued downside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28 remains in oversold territory, hinting that the latest slide is stretched but not yet showing a clear recovery signal.
The NZD/USD pair may find initial support at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.5620, followed by the 14-month low of 0.5580, which was recorded in November 2025. Further declines below this confluence support zone would strengthen the bearish bias and lead the pair to test the 0.5485, the lowest since March 2020.
On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.5703, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.5760. Further resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 0.5819.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.21% | 0.03% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.33% | 0.13% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.34% | 0.14% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.00% | -0.03% | 0.32% | 0.11% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | -0.29% | -0.33% | -0.34% | -0.32% | -0.19% | -0.39% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.11% | 0.19% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.39% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD posts modest gains around 1.3200 in Friday’s early European session.
- Traders await the outcome of who will take over as the next finance minister under Andy Burnham, lifting the British Pound.
- US PCE inflation data eases US rate hike expectations.
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3200 during the early European session on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as markets focus on who might become finance minister under Andy Burnham, and the latest US inflation data has softened expectations for US rate hikes.
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to be replaced under a Burnham-led administration. Traders focus on who might become finance minister under Andy Burnham, the likely successor to Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. "The obstacles to a Burnham coronation are slowly being cleared, offering sterling support at the margin," said Nick Rees, head of macro analysis at Monex Europe.
Rees said former health secretary Wes Streeting's emergence as the favorite to become her successor, as reported by some media outlets, was likely to support sterling. "That said, we are still in the honeymoon period as far as Burnham is concerned, and economic realities remain challenging," he added.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed on Thursday that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed 4.1% YoY in May, compared to 3.3% in April. The annual rate accelerated well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% YoY in May, versus 3.3% prior, in line with expectations. This figure registered the highest since October 2023. Both readings came in line with the market expectations.
Analysts believe that with oil prices falling to pre-war levels on Thursday after the US and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal, inflation likely peaked last month or is close to doing so.
Markets are now pricing in nearly a 28.9% chance for a hike of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the central bank's July meeting, down from 34.2% in the prior session, according to the CME FedWatch tool. For the September meeting, expectations for a hike dipped to 60.1% from 65.7% on Wednesday.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold attracts fresh sellers on Friday as Hormuz ship attack revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
- Bets for at least one Fed rate hike this year further support the Greenback and undermine the bullion.
- The XAU/USD pair is poised for its fourth weekly loss amid bearish fundamental and technical setups.
Gold (XAU/USD) trims a part of its Asian session losses on Friday and currently trades just above the $4,000 psychological mark, still down around 0.40% for the day. As investors look past key US inflation data, concerns about the fragile US-Iran peace agreement benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Adding to this, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates this year help the USD to stall Thursday's pullback from its highest level since May 2025 and undermine demand for the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index accelerated from the 3.8% YoY rate to 4.1% in May. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.4%. Investors believed that inflation likely peaked last month or is close to doing so in the face of the recent fall in Crude Oil prices to pre-war levels following an interim US-Iran peace deal. This led to a marginal uptick in bets that the Fed will hold rates steady, prompting some USD profit-taking.
Nevertheless, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The bets were reaffirmed by comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee that underlying inflation pressures are still too high and trending in the wrong way. Moreover, New York Fed President John Williams pushed back his expectation of getting inflation back to the 2% target and said that inflation remains too high, though it is likely to moderate this year.
Meanwhile, reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz reignited worries about the sustainability of the preliminary US-Iran peace deal. This further contributes to limiting losses for the USD, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that weighing on the Gold. Moreover, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciating move. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register losses for the fourth consecutive week.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold seems vulnerable amid bearish technical setup while below 100-SMA on H4
From a technical perspective, Thursday's bounce from oversold conditions faltered ahead of the $4,050 horizontal support breakpoint-turned-resistance. This, along with the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and weakness back below the $4,000 mark, validates the near-term negative outlook for the Gold. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is turning modestly positive. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 36 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the $4,050 region, above which, if cleared, could lift the XAU/USD pair to the $4,100 mark. Any further move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 100-period SMA, at $4,231.08. Failure to challenge the said barrier should keep the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- WTI declines as surging Middle Eastern oil supply overshadows geopolitical anxieties.
- QatarEnergy issued its first July–August crude tender since the US–Iran conflict began.
- Oil prices initially spiked after a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel off Oman.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) depreciates after registering over 2% gains in the previous day, trading around $70.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices ground lower as a massive surge in Middle Eastern supply ultimately overshadowed the geopolitical anxieties sparked by a fresh tanker attack near the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices lost ground as investors realized that actual shipping traffic through the strait remained highly active and that a wave of fresh crude was hitting the market. In a highly anticipated move, QatarEnergy issued a tender offering al-Shaheen, Qatar Marine, and Qatar Land crude for July-to-August loading, marking its first such move since the US-Iran conflict began. According to tender documents seen by Reuters, the producer is giving buyers the flexibility to load or lift supplies via ship-to-ship transfers between Fujairah and Sohar, adding significant volumes to the market alongside recent July-loading tenders from Iraq's SOMO and Kuwait Petroleum Corp.
Further compounding the supply surge, refining giant Saudi Aramco officially resumed oil loading at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf following a nearly four-month halt. Tracking data from LSEG showed two Very Large Crude Carriers, each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil, actively loading at the terminal while a third waited nearby. Combined with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co selling at least 48 million barrels of crude across three separate tenders this month, this sweeping resumption of regional export activity ultimately convinced traders that the physical supply of oil remains more than secure despite the ongoing military risks.
Oil prices had initially spiked during early Asian trading hours following a suspected projectile attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman, an incident that abruptly halted United Nations (US) evacuation efforts in the vital chokepoint and reignited deep fears over global energy security. The friction intensified after the market closed when US officials reported that Iranian forces had fired on the cargo ship, prompting Iranian authorities to issue a stark warning that they would no longer guarantee the safety of any vessels traveling outside designated shipping lanes.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the RBA’s hawkish tilt limits losses.
- Hormuz risks and Fed rate hike bets revive USD demand, exerting pressure on spot prices.
- Traders now look to the US Consumer Sentiment Index and Fedspeak for a fresh impetus.
The AUD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's modest gains and drops to a fresh low since early April during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just below the 0.6900 mark, still down over 0.25% for the day.
According to the third and final reading published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the second estimate of 1.6% rise. Adding to this, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index highlighted persistent inflationary pressures, keeping an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year firmly on the table. Apart from this, the cautious market mood helps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) stall its corrective pullback from the highest level since May 2025, touched on Thursday, and exerts downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Reports suggested that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest development reignites worries about the sustainability of the preliminary US-Iran peace deal. Apart from this, the recent tech-driven selloff in the equity markets has triggered global risk aversion, which is seen as another factor behind the Greenback's relative outperformance against the perceived riskier Australian Dollar (AUD). That said, expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the AUD/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to the release of the revived University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index, which, along with Fedspeak, might influence the USD price dynamics. The focus will then shift to RBA Governor Michele Bullock's speech on Sunday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair at the start of a new week. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register heavy weekly losses, also marking the second straight week of a negative move.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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