Forex News
- EUR/USD traded around 1.1800 on Wednesday, hovering below the four-year peak of 1.2020 touched last week.
- ECB expected to keep rates unchanged Thursday; Eurozone January flash HICP forecast at 1.7% YoY.
- Bessent reiterates strong dollar policy during House testimony, says Fed lost trust over inflation.
EUR/USD traded mostly flat on Wednesday, drifting around 1.1800 during the European and American sessions. Fiber pulled back from last week's four-year high near 1.2020 but continues to hold comfortably near the 1.18 handle. The EUR/USD pair has gained roughly 14% over the past twelve months, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials and persistent weakness in the Greenback.
Wednesday's session sees muted price action ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate steady at 2.0%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change. The central bank has kept rates on hold since June 2025, and ECB President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stated that policy is in a "good place."
Swedbank economist Nerijus Maciulis noted that Lagarde is likely to reiterate that the Euro-area economy is in a good place, though risks persist. "The first weeks of 2026 have clearly illustrated that trade deals and agreements are very fragile," Maciulis said, referencing ongoing global trade tensions.
Bessent reiterates strong US Dollar policy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, reiterating that the US "always supports a strong Dollar policy." Bessent also commented on Federal Reserve independence, noting that the Fed lost Americans' trust when it allowed inflation to "ravage" their incomes. He emphasized that the central bank must maintain a "very delicate balance" in fulfilling its dual mandate.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near 97.50 on Wednesday, consolidating after its recent recovery from near six-year lows. The Greenback found some support last week after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh, a monetary hawk and former Fed governor, is seen as a credible pick who may maintain the central bank's independence.
US shutdown delays key labor data
A partial US government shutdown has delayed key labor market releases, including January's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report originally scheduled for Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the postponement, leaving traders without fresh signals on employment conditions. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January meeting, and markets see low odds of a cut in March given the data vacuum.
EUR/USD price forecast
Despite a recent bullish breakout, EUR/USD is consolidating within a broad sideways range that has defined price action since mid-2025. The pair trades above both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), with the 50-day EMA near 1.1740 and the 200-day EMA around 1.1410. This bullish alignment confirms the medium-term uptrend, though the pace of gains has slowed as the pair approaches psychological resistance near 1.20.
Immediate resistance is seen at the recent swing high near 1.1870, followed by the critical 1.20 psychological barrier and the four-year peak at 1.2020. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 1.1740 offers the first layer of support. A break below this level could expose the 1.1580 zone, the two-month low set in mid-January.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, reflecting neutral momentum with a mild bullish tilt. The indicator has pulled back from overbought levels above 70 seen earlier in January, suggesting the pair may need fresh catalysts to extend higher. For now, the broader bias tilts positive while EUR/USD holds above the 50-day EMA, but a sustained break above 1.1870 would be needed to confirm renewed bullish momentum toward the year's highs.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Dow Jones gained around 300 points as Eli Lilly soared on blowout earnings and bullish 2026 guidance.
- Advanced Micro Devices plunged 14% after first-quarter guidance disappointed investors despite record Q4 revenue.
- ADP reported just 22K private-sector jobs added in January, well below expectations of 48K.
- ISM Services PMI held steady at 53.8, marking 19 consecutive months of expansion in the services sector.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed about 600 points, or 0.6%, and tapped the 49,600 region on Wednesday, gaining ground on the back of climbing pharmaceutical stocks. The S&P 500 shed approximately 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4%, weighed down by continued weakness in semiconductor and software stocks. Markets remained in rotation mode, with investors moving out of technology and into economically sensitive shares amid ongoing concerns about AI-driven disruption.
Eli Lilly crushes estimates, revenue rises above Wall Street expectations
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) surged more than 7% after the pharmaceutical giant posted fourth-quarter results that blew past analyst expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share on revenue of $19.29 billion, well ahead of estimates for $6.93 and $17.96 billion. Lilly's blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro continued to drive growth, with Zepbound generating $4.2 billion in US revenue for the quarter. The company provided guidance for 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, significantly above the $77.62 billion analysts had forecast. The results stood in stark contrast to rival Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), which warned earlier this week that it expects sales and profit to decline as much as 13% this year. Lilly's market share in the US obesity and diabetes drug market climbed to 60.5% in the fourth quarter.
AMD sinks despite record revenue as guidance disappoints
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) plunged 14% on Wednesday after its first-quarter guidance fell short of elevated expectations amid the ongoing AI spending boom. The chipmaker projected revenue of approximately $9.8 billion for the first quarter, plus or minus $300 million, which topped the consensus estimate of $9.38 billion but disappointed analysts who had anticipated stronger guidance. AMD reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $10.27 billion and earnings of $1.53 per share, both beating estimates, but investors focused on the sequential revenue decline implied by the guidance. The stock's slide weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and added to pressure on the broader semiconductor sector, with Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) falling 2% and Micron Technology Inc. (MU) losing 3%.
ADP report shows sluggish hiring to start 2026
Private-sector employment barely budged in January, with companies adding just 22K jobs according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. The figure was well below the downwardly revised 37K increase in December and missed the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 48K. The lackluster reading would have been negative without a surge of 74K hires in the education and health services category. Financial activities added 14K positions while construction rose by just 9K. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that hiring continues to soften in a pattern observed over the past three years. Wage gains were little changed, with job-stayers seeing growth of 4.5% year-over-year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, originally scheduled to release on Friday, has been delayed by the recent partial government shutdown.
ISM Services PMI holds steady, pointing to continued expansion
The ISM Services PMI registered 53.8 in January, unchanged from December's seasonally adjusted reading, marking the 19th consecutive month of expansion in the services sector. The Business Activity Index jumped to 57.4, up 2.2 points from December and the highest reading since October 2024. The Employment Index expanded for the second straight month at 50.3, though it slipped 1.4 points from December. The Prices Index rose to 66.6, slightly above its 12-month average, suggesting inflationary pressures remain in the services sector. ISM noted that the Services PMI reading corresponds to a 1.8 percentage point increase in real gross domestic product on an annualized basis, indicating continued economic expansion.
Software stocks extend global selloff on AI disruption fears
The rout in software stocks extended into a second day as concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models continued to weigh on the sector. Salesforce Inc. (CRM), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), and CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) all extended losses from Tuesday's session. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has dropped more than 14% over the past six sessions following a 15% decline in January. The selling has spilled over into global markets, with European software and data analytics names hitting fresh lows. Analysts at Jefferies described software sentiment as the worst ever, with traders in capitulation mode. Gold continued its recovery, climbing to around $5,050 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the technology sector turmoil.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Standard Chartered's report, authored by Carol Liao, Senior Economist and Moriarty Lam, Research Analyst, highlights that China's household consumption is likely underestimated due to unaccounted government transfers and strong RMB purchasing power. While boosting domestic demand is essential, it may not provide a quick fix for external imbalances and deflation. The report emphasizes the need for supportive measures and a shift in resources to expand the services sector to drive consumption growth.
Underestimating China's household consumption strength
"Official data likely underestimates strength of China’s household consumption. Understatement likely due to unaccounted-for government transfers and strong RMB purchasing power."
"However, we think this gap is overstated. The following factors suggest China’s consumption base is larger than conventional statistics imply."
"Boosting household demand is still important as China consumption’s share of GDP may be behind the global average even after adjusting for possible understatement effects; moreover, consumption growth has been softening."
"Supportive measures such as the goods trade-in programme are likely not sufficient to boost overall consumption, nor help resolve the external trade imbalance and deflation issues."
"In the foreseeable future, we expect China to maintain its export competitiveness – and therefore a sizeable C/A surplus – and domestic inflation to remain soft."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The New Zealand Dollar pulls back despite a solid increase in employment in the fourth quarter.
- An unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate tempers optimism around the labor market.
- The US macro backdrop and monetary policy expectations weigh on the pair.
NZD/USD trades around 0.6000 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 0.90% on the day, as investors digest mixed New Zealand labor market data and an uncertain global macroeconomic environment.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fails to sustain gains following the release of strong employment figures for the last quarter of 2025. Employment Change rose by 0.5% on a quarterly basis, after a flat reading in the previous quarter, and beat the market consensus of 0.3%. This performance points to some resilience in economic activity and an underlying improvement in labor market conditions.
However, this positive signal is offset by an unexpected increase in the Unemployment Rate, which climbed to 5.4%, its highest level in nearly a decade, while analysts had expected a steady reading at 5.3%. According to BBH, this rise partly reflects stronger labor force participation, which puts the apparent deterioration into perspective but also confirms the presence of spare capacity in the New Zealand economy. The bank also notes that wage pressures remain contained, limiting near-term inflation risks.
Against this backdrop, prospects for monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remain limited. The easing in labor costs relative to expectations and the persistence of a negative output gap argue in favor of keeping monetary policy unchanged for an extended period, capping the appeal of the NZD.
On the international front, the US Dollar (USD) trades with a more mixed tone following the release of weaker-than-expected US employment data. The ADP report showed that private-sector job creation in the United States (US) totaled just 22,000 in January, well below market expectations. This figure reinforces the view of a gradual cooling in the labor market, even as some activity indicators, such as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), remained in expansion territory. The Services PMI printed at 53.8, unchanged from the previous month, but its Employment and New Orders components pointed to some loss of momentum.
In addition, delays in the release of official US labor market data, due to a temporary federal government shutdown, keep investors cautious. This combination of factors maintains some volatility in the Greenback and contributes to a bearish bias in NZD/USD, despite encouraging signals from New Zealand’s labor market.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.27% | 0.52% | 0.22% | 0.49% | 0.95% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | 0.11% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.79% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | -0.11% | 0.24% | -0.04% | 0.23% | 0.68% | -0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.52% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.01% | 0.43% | -0.41% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.72% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.34% | -0.23% | 0.01% | -0.27% | 0.45% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.95% | -0.79% | -0.68% | -0.43% | -0.72% | -0.45% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 0.40% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
In their latest report, TD Securities analysts Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo argue that fears surrounding Japan's fiscal outlook are exaggerated. They highlight that Japan's Gross Debt to GDP ratio is misleading due to significant government assets. The analysts expect the Bank of Japan to intervene if yields breach certain levels, indicating potential buying interest in JGBs.
Analysis of Japan's fiscal position
"Japan's Gross Debt to GDP at around 250% may capture the bulk of the market's attention, but sizable Government assets offsetting liabilities means the gross measure is not the most accurate representation of the fiscal position."
"We contend that Japan does not mirror the UK, and comparisons to the Gilt crisis of 2022 are off the mark given leveraged LDIs are not part of Japan's market structure."
"Governor Ueda remarked in the last BoJ meeting that the Bank is ready to step in to stabilize super long-end yields, and we could see BoJ bond intervention operations in the 10-30y part of the curve if 30y yields breach 4% in short fashion."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The CAD is experiencing slight softness in quiet trading, primarily due to a stronger USD. The CAD's fair value estimate has increased slightly, reflecting a minor upward adjustment, note Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret.
CAD softens in quiet trade
"Losses reflect the generally stronger USD overall, with the CAD finding little relief from firmer commodities or the positive (so far) risk mood."
"Those factors have helped nudge the CAD’s fair value estimate a little higher—to 1.3632—this morning and should help reinforce better USD selling interest on minor gains through the upper 1.36s."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
The preliminary estimate for January Eurozone HICP inflation eased to 1.7% y/y, down from 1.9% in December, aligning with expectations. Core inflation also fell to 2.2% y/y. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid concerns about inflation undershooting its target. ABN AMRO analysts predict that inflation will fall below the 2% target in 2026, driven by lower energy prices and a stronger euro.
Inflation trends and ECB outlook
"Today’s release at 1.7% y/y marks the beginning of a period where eurozone headline inflation is set to fall below the 2% target. For roughly the past year, headline inflation remained well behaved around target."
"We expect the ECB to also keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Governing Council appears inclined to look through the undershoot on the assumption that inflation will return to target in 2027."
"While near‑term risks to our view still tilt toward another rate cut due to the undershoot, by 2027 those risks may shift back toward a hike, with upside pressures likely to build from higher domestic demand, among other reasons stemming from German fiscal spending."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Despite the weakened Danish Krone (DKK) against the Euro (EUR), the Danish central bank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market, indicating that the current interest rate spread will likely remain unchanged. The Krone has shown slight appreciation recently, but the longest period without intervention since the Euro's introduction continues. Nordea analysts suggest that a seasonal weakening could occur as dividend payments increase in the coming months.
No intervention from the Danish central bank
"Despite a weakened Danish krone against the euro, the Danish central bank has not yet intervened in the foreign exchange market. This supports our expectation that the current interest rate spread will be kept unchanged."
"Since the peak in EUR/DKK in mid-January the Danish krone has appreciated slightly and is currently trading around 7.456 against the euro. Due to this, it is most likely that the record long period without intervention is still going on."
"When the Danish krone weakens toward previous intervention levels, the risk of an independent Danish rate hike increases and the DESTR-€STR spread widens."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD consolidates below 1.3700 as traders await the Bank of England policy decision.
- US services data surprised higher, with the Institute for Supply Management PMI beating forecasts despite softer hiring signals.
- UK services activity improved, but rising prices flagged by S&P Global may limit near-term BoE easing.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, and it remains trading below the 1.3700 figure, posting losses of 0.23% as traders wait for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision.
Sterling weakens as mixed risk sentiment and resilient US services data keep the Dollar modestly supported
Market mood is mixed as investors rotate out of tech companies, amid the uncertainty about the business risks of AI. In the meantime, a short-lived government shutdown in the US delayed the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January and other labor market data.
Consequently, traders got back to other data, such as the ADP Employment Change for January, which revealed that private companies hired 22K people, missing estimates of 48K jobs created in the first month of 2026.
In the meantime, the Institute for Supply Management revealed that the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January exceeded estimates of 53.5, rose by 53.8, unchanged from December’s reading.
Digging deeper into the data, the Employment index expanded for the second straight month but decelerated compared to December’s print. The Prices Paid sub-component rose from 65.1 in December to 66.6, its highest level sincd the previous two months.
Following the ISM’s release, the Greenback mildly advanced as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance versus six currencies, is up 0.13% at 97.51.
Across the pond, S&P Global revealed that business activity in the services sector grew strongly in January. The same polls showed an increase in prices, which could deter the BoE from cutting rates.
On Thursday, the BoE is expected to hold rates unchanged at 3.75%. However, towards the year’s end, money markets had priced in 35 basis points of easing, revealed Prime Market Terminal data.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD technical picture shows the pair is poised to consolidate within the 1.3600-1.3700 range, after retreating from a yearly high of 1.3868 hit on January 27. The selling pressure has eased as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains at bullish territory, but stabilized after diving from around the 78.45 level.
For a bullish continuation, GBP/USD must reclaim 1.3700. A breach of the latter will expose 1.3750, followed by the January 30 high at 1.3818. Conversely, if GBP/USD falls below 1.3650, it would open the door to test the February 2 low at 1.3623 ahead of 1.3600.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.58% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.71% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.58% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.18% | -0.03% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.55% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.58% | -0.44% | -0.47% | -0.31% | -0.36% | 0.15% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | -0.25% | -0.11% | -0.08% | 0.31% | -0.05% | 0.47% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.53% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.58% | -0.55% | -0.15% | -0.47% | -0.53% | -0.54% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.54% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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