Forex News
- EUR/USD consolidates its strong recovery gains registered over the past two days.
- Traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key Fed and ECB policy updates.
- The technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on this week's goodish recovery move from the 1.1415-1.1410 area, or its lowest level since August 2025, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1500s, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for the key central bank event risks before placing fresh directional bets.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting later today, which will be followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) policy update on Thursday. Investors will look for cues about the interest rate path going forward amid concerns that a war-driven surge in energy prices would negative impact on economic growth and revive inflationary pressures.
The EUR/USD pair holds below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.1547, capping recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 stays in positive territory but below overbought conditions, indicating moderate upside momentum without strong follow-through. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped marginally below the signal line near the zero mark, reinforcing a loss of bullish impulse and aligning with the rejection from the longer-term average.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1539, measured from the 1.1666 high to the 1.1413 low, with a clear break higher needed to expose the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and then the 100-period SMA zone near 1.1580.
On the downside, initial support stands at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.1509, ahead of the 23.6% level at 1.1473, where a confluence with prior intraday lows would strengthen the floor. A decisive drop below 1.1473 would open the way toward the 1.1413 swing low, while sustained trading above 1.1569 would neutralize the current bearish tone and shift focus back to the 1.1612–1.1666 resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 1-hour chart
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.99% | -0.89% | -0.40% | -0.20% | -1.72% | -1.19% | -0.62% | |
| EUR | 0.99% | 0.12% | 0.53% | 0.79% | -0.70% | -0.20% | 0.37% | |
| GBP | 0.89% | -0.12% | 0.55% | 0.67% | -0.83% | -0.32% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.40% | -0.53% | -0.55% | 0.22% | -1.31% | -0.77% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | -0.79% | -0.67% | -0.22% | -1.56% | -0.98% | -0.42% | |
| AUD | 1.72% | 0.70% | 0.83% | 1.31% | 1.56% | 0.52% | 1.11% | |
| NZD | 1.19% | 0.20% | 0.32% | 0.77% | 0.98% | -0.52% | 0.54% | |
| CHF | 0.62% | -0.37% | -0.31% | 0.24% | 0.42% | -1.11% | -0.54% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,888.97 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 14,941.65 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 173,662.40 per tola from INR 174,276.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,888.97 |
10 Grams | 148,890.00 |
Tola | 173,662.40 |
Troy Ounce | 463,106.90 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- AUD/JPY trades in positive territory near 113.00 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The constructive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.70; the initial support level is seen at 111.40.
The AUD/JPY cross posts modest gains around 113.00 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers a rate hike and keeps a hawkish tone.
The RBA raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% at its March policy meeting on Tuesday. This follows a similar hike in February, marking the first back-to-back increases since mid-2023. During the press conference, Governor Michele Bullock stated that prices remained too high and the board was worried about second-round effects from higher energy costs, triggered by the Middle East conflict.
The attention will shift to Australia’s employment data for February, which is due later on Thursday. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% in February. Any signs of weakening in the US labor market could undermine the Aussie in the near term.
Traders will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Iranian security chief Ali Larijani killed in Israeli air strikes, per BBC. Meanwhile, Iranian army chief Amir Hatami vowed to launch a “decisive and regrettable” retaliation for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli airstrike. Fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand, which supports the JPY and acts as a headwind for the cross.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price remains well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 106.40, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The latest candles track above the rising Bollinger middle band while the upper band continues to expand, confirming strong upside volatility. Daily RSI hovers in the low 60s, staying in positive territory without entering overbought extremes, which supports sustained buying pressure rather than an exhausted spike.
Immediate resistance emerges at the recent peak near 113.70, backed by the upper Bollinger Band at 113.80; a daily close above this area would open the way toward the 115.00 region next. On the downside, initial support is at 111.40 from the Bollinger middle band, followed by the 110.15–110.35 zone, which coincides with prior consolidation and the mid-October band cluster. A deeper pullback would target the 108.70 area, just above the 100-day EMA, where trend support aligns with the lower part of the recent Bollinger structure; only a break below that region would threaten the current bullish setup.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Iraq’s oil minister said on Tuesday that the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) reached an agreement to resume oil exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan energy hub starting on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
The KRG stated that both sides would form a joint committee to prepare for resuming oil exports via the region's pipeline from Wednesday, with revenue to be returned to the federal treasury. They also agreed to take the necessary security measures to protect oilfields and ensure the continuity of export operations.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 2.87% on the day at $92.25.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- WTI attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited.
- Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could support the commodity and help limit losses.
- Reduced Fed rate cut bets underpin the USD, which might keep a lid on gains for the black liquid.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and meet with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity is currently trading below the $93.00 mark, down over 2.5% for the day, and remains close to the weekly low, touched on Monday.
Sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said that US crude inventories rose by 6.56 million barrels in the week ended March 13. This, in turn, prompts some selling around Crude Oil prices, though heightened geopolitical uncertainty stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and supply concerns might continue to act as a tailwind for the black liquid.
The US-Israel war on Iran is in its third week and has shown no clear signs of de-escalation. In fact, a senior Iranian official said that Iran’s new supreme leader rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediary countries. This comes amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global supply, and has led to severe disruption of energy trade.
Meanwhile, the US military targeted sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the paramilitary Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, were killed in Israeli air strikes on Tuesday. Iran's army chief Amir Hatami said that Tehran's response to the assassination will be decisive and regrettable.
This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might limit the downside for Crude Oil prices. The price action, however, suggests that market players have already fully priced in the current situation. Moreover, reduced bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) underpin the US Dollar (USD) and warrant caution before placing bullish bets around Oil prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- EUR/JPY tests the immediate barrier around the upper descending triangle boundary at 183.40.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 indicates neutral momentum.
- Immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA at 183.28.
EUR/JPY depreciates after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 183.40 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the spot testing the upper boundary of a descending triangle, suggesting potential resistance and a possible continuation of the bearish trend unless a breakout occurs.
However, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day EMA and the nine-day EMA, signaling an ongoing uptrend rather than a reversal. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 underscores balanced momentum, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which keeps the focus on price action around the clustered moving averages to judge whether buyers can regain control.
A successful breakout above the descending triangle would indicate bullish confirmation and may support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 183.28, followed by the 50-day EMA of 183.12. Further declines below the short- and medium-term averages would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the area around the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12, followed by the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 180.40. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low at 175.70, recorded on November 5.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.01% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.05% | 0.01% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold remains confined in a multi-day range as traders keenly await the crucial FOMC decision.
- Inflation concerns temper Fed rate cut bets, underpinning the USD and capping the commodity.
- Heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen extending its sideways consolidative price move around the $5,000 psychological mark for the third straight day on Wednesday as traders opt to wait for the crucial FOMC decision. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain the status quo and keep interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting. The market focus, however, will be on the accompanying policy statement and updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot. Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference will be scrutinized closely for more cues about the path of future interest rates amid fears of a war-driven spike in inflation. This, in turn, will influence the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the US-Israel attacks on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint handling around 20% of global oil supply – led to severe disruption of energy trade. This has been fueling inflationary concerns and forcing traders to trim their bets for more interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a significant shift in market expectations from multiple rate reductions to potentially just one in December. This, in turn, assists the USD to stall a two-day-old retracement slide from its highest level since May 2025 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the Gold price. However, heightened geopolitical uncertainties continue to benefit traditional safe-haven assets and limit the downside for the precious metal, warranting caution for bears.
Iranian authorities confirmed that top security official, Ali Larijani, and the head of the paramilitary Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, were killed in Israeli air strikes on Tuesday. Iran's army chief Amir Hatami said in a statement that Iran’s response to the assassination of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council will be decisive and regrettable. Meanwhile, the US military targeted sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. This, along with the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, could offer some support to the Gold. Meanwhile, policy updates by other major central banks – the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of England (BoE) – should produce some trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair during the latter part of the week.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold seems vulnerable as break below ascending trend line and 200-SMA on H4 remains in play
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the precious metal has slipped beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the upward-sloping trend line support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher above its Signal line but remains close to the zero mark, suggesting only tentative recovery attempts within a broader softening backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 stays below the 50 midline, indicating prevailing bearish pressure despite the recent stabilization.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 200-period SMA around $5,061, and a recovery above this area would be needed to ease downside pressure and expose the recent swing region around $5,100 as the next barrier. On the downside, initial support is located at the recent low near $4,985, with a sustained break opening the way toward the previous reaction area around $4,950. A decisive move below $4,950 would strengthen the bearish extension toward the rising trend line’s prior consolidation band closer to $4,900, while only a firm reclaim of $5,061 and $5,100 would begin to neutralize the current negative tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $5,002.73.
- The Japanese Yen trades calmly near 159.00 against the US Dollar ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement.
- Both the Fed and the BoJ are expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week.
- Global oil concerns have eased slightly following the reopening of Hormuz for some nations.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades almost flat around 159.00 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair consolidates as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto two-day’s losses around 99.50. The USD Index has corrected in the last two trading sessions after a sharp rally, as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran for some countries has slightly eased global supply concerns.
In the policy meeting, investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged again in the range of 3.50%-3.75% as the recent surge in oil prices due to Middle East conflicts has prompted inflation expectations in the United States (US) and the entire world.
Therefore, market participants will pay close attention to the Fed’s dot plot and comments regarding the monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates anytime before the September policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades broadly firm as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has expressed confidence that prices and wages will continue to accelerate ahead of the monetary policy announcement on Thursday. “Expect underlying inflation to converge toward our target in the latter half of fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2027,” Ueda said on Tuesday.
In the policy meeting on Thursday, the BoJ is expected to leave borrowing rates steady at 0.75% while leaving the door open for further interest rate hikes.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Mar 18, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
- GBP/USD holds steady as investors stay cautious ahead of the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday.
- Traders await Powell’s guidance on how rising oil prices may shape the Fed’s policy outlook.
- Traders expect the BoE to hold rates at 3.75% as oil-driven inflation fears rise amid the Iran conflict.
GBP/USD steadies after posting gains over the previous two sessions, hovering around 1.1350 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The pair shows limited movement as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady, with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision scheduled for later in the day. Traders focus on guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding how the recent surge in oil prices may influence the central bank’s policy outlook.
Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range for March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If the Fed opts to hold rates steady, it would mark the second consecutive pause, reflecting a cautious stance amid increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday. Rising oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict have lifted inflation expectations in the United Kingdom and sharply reduced the likelihood of a March rate cut. Prior to the conflict, markets had priced in an 80% chance of a March cut; the vote split will be closely watched, with a 6–3 outcome signaling a more dovish tilt than the expected 7–2 consensus.
Market participants are also monitoring energy prices, which have found renewed support following recent US military strikes on Iranian coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats from anti-ship missiles to global shipping, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the BBC reported that Israel claimed responsibility for strikes that killed senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- US Dollar Index trades flat around 99.60 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could underpin the DXY.
- The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.60 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY holds steady as traders wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.
Intensifying conflict in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven demand, which supports the US Dollar against its rivals. The BBC reported on Tuesday that Iranian security chief Ali Larijani was killed in Israeli air strikes. Iranian army chief Amir Hatami vowed to launch a “decisive and regrettable” retaliation for the killing of security chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli air strike.
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again reinforced the USD’s role as a primary safe-haven currency,” HSBC forex analysts wrote in a Thursday note.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its March meeting on Wednesday. The ongoing war in Iran and oil price spikes have complicated the inflation outlook, making a rate cut highly unlikely at this time. Traders dialed back Fed easing expectations, with markets now assigning about 25 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, according to a Reuters poll.
Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks after the rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold one of his final press conferences before his term ends in May. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the USD, while dovish comments from policymakers could drag the DXY lower.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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