Forex News
San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly commented that there is no doubt AI has fueled price pressure and that it is “having limited impact on the labour market.”
In a keynote speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Daly said there is a risk that AI could contribute to inflation and that the prevailing bias is that “further tightening will be needed.” Daly added that inflation is bleeding into services and that “inflation pressure is up, not down”.
Key takeaways:
Economy being driven by technology boom
AI pipeline is deep, so continues even if it slows
No doubt of AI-fueled price pressure
AI is contributing directly only a modest amount to inflation
AI having limited impact on labor market
We have an inflation problem, but AI is not doing most of the driving
There is risk AI could contribute more to inflation
There has been repricing in AI valuations, but it's not the unwinding of interest or enthusiasm
That suggests there's not a risk to growth
There is positive momentum for productivity growth
A lot of work being done that we might see more productivity growth in next 1-3 years
It's too early to say when AI productivity impact will arrive
Stable labor market, positive growth, productivity growth, and high inflation
We have to focus on bringing inflation down
Just because we have to fight inflation problem now doesn't mean we should ignore potential that productivity growth could be disinflationary
Inflation shocks can compound, we can't be complacent
Bias is that further tightening will be needed
Inflation is bleeding into services, and once services inflation rises it's sticky
I'm comfortable with September hike, further tightening needed
Inflation pressure is up, not down
I increasingly hear firms say they're going to pass on higher costs
But markets don't do the work of the Fed, and keeping prices stable is the job of the Fed
Financial markets are in alignment with where Fed needs to be
Tighter financial conditions give us more time to make decisions
Exactly how much Fed tightening and when is a decision we don't need to make now
We have many, many quarters to make policy decisions
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.33% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.64% | 0.33% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.00% | -0.37% | -0.29% | 0.32% | -0.00% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.01% | -0.36% | -0.28% | 0.32% | -0.00% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.68% | 0.36% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.29% | 0.28% | -0.08% | 0.60% | 0.29% | 0.28% | |
| AUD | -0.64% | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.68% | -0.60% | -0.30% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.36% | -0.29% | 0.30% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.36% | -0.28% | 0.32% | -0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish momentum well in place for yet another day, this time revisiting levels last seen in April 2025 amid steady speculation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, with investors even mulling the idea of a half-point interest rate raise.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has advanced past the 103.00 hurdle to hit new 18-month highs, helped by the generalised bearish tone in the risk complex and rising bets for another fed rate hike at the December gathering. The Producer Prices data will close the calendar along with speeches by the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, and Daly.
EUR/USD has further extended its downtrend, reaching new troughs around 1.1050 on the back of the persistent move higher in the US Dollar. The EMU’s Balance of Trade results are due, seconded by the advanced Q3 Employment Change and the second estimate of the Q3 GDP Growth Rate in the bloc. In addition, the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel are due to speak.
GBP/USD has dropped to multi-week lows, navigating the area close to the 1.3200 contention zone. Next on tap across the Channel is the key labour market report, due for release on November 17.
USD/JPY has traded just pips away from the critical 160.00 barrier, underpinned by the solid momentum around the US Dollar. The next release of note in Japan will be the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate, due on November 16, along with final Industrial Production figures and Capacity Utilisation readings.
AUD/USD has briefly pierced the 0.6800 support level for the first time since January, down for the third straight day amid extra upside traction in the Greenback. The RBA will publish its Minutes on November 17.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have traded in an inconclusive fashion between the $85.00 and $87.00 marks per barrel, always closely following developments (or the lack of them) from the Middle East conflict.
Gold has sold off to the vicinity of the $3,850 mark per troy ounce on Thursday, coming under continuous downside pressure following extra upside momentum in the US Dollar, and rising US Treasury yields, particularly in the short end and the belly of the curve.
- Silver drops more than 3% on Thursday as the stronger US Dollar weighs on precious metals.
- Higher-than-expected US inflation reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials add pressure on non-yielding assets.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Thursday, losing 3% on the day to trade around $50.15 at the time of writing. The white metal faces strong selling pressure as the strengthening US Dollar (USD) and growing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduce the appeal of precious metals.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's performance against six major currencies, trades near 103.10 after hitting its highest level since April 2025. A stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for foreign investors, while higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.
The latest US inflation figures reinforce expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in October, exceeding forecasts of 0.2%, while headline inflation increased 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%.
Markets now fully price in a Fed rate hike in December, and put the chance of another interest rate rise in January at nearly 65%, supported by increasingly hawkish comments from policymakers. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that monetary policy needs to become restrictive, warning that rising energy costs are feeding through to other prices. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point (bps) hike in December if core inflation reached 0.3% or higher, a threshold confirmed by the latest data.
Meanwhile, declining US equity markets may add selling pressure on Silver as investors liquidate positions to cover losses elsewhere. Traders now await Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) release and further Fed comments for additional clues on the interest rate outlook.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) "wasn’t a one-off.”
Goolsbee added that, regarding inflation, the Fed is in a “tough spot” and should be “mindful” of signs of economic overheating.
Key takeaways:
Inflation has been well above target
Worth being 'sober-minded' about inflation data and Fed response
Hot inflation report wasn't a one-off
AI investment looks like a form of stimulus.
We're inching our way into a historically tough spot for Fed
Fed should be mindful of signs that the overall economy is overheating
Plenty of room for the Fed to discuss policy options
Do not want to prejudge what happens with monetary policy
Fed is failing on the inflation side of the mandate
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.59% | 0.32% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.22% | 0.33% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.26% | 0.30% | 0.02% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.16% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.52% | 0.23% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.55% | 0.26% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.59% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.52% | -0.55% | -0.27% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.23% | -0.26% | 0.27% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.42% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- GBP/USD falls 0.4% to 1.3224, extending losses to three days.
- UK Q3 GDP grows 0.7%, but Sterling fails to recover.
- Fed's Hammack warns inflation is worsening ahead of Friday's US PPI.
The Pound Sterling prolongs its agony versus the US Dollar, diving for the third straight day and approaching the 1.3200 level, even as US jobless claims came in above forecasts, while UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data show the economy is growing steadily. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3224, down 0.4%.
GBP/USD extends its losing streak despite solid UK GDP as hawkish Fed rhetoric weighs
Data in the US revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hit 200K, above forecasts of 195K and the previous reading of 191K. Despite the rise, Continuing Jobless Claims dipped from 1.717 million to 1.697 million, indicating a solid labour market.
Other data showed that Existing Home Sales Change fell 5.5% MoM from 3.97 million to 3.75 million, compared with September’s print.
The data was mostly ignored by investors focusing on comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said the inflation outlook is worsening and that she supports a gradual approach to hiking interest rates.
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that the “hot inflation report wasn’t a one-off.”
In the UK, GDP grew 0.7% in Q3 on a quarterly basis, in line with estimates, yet GBP/USD failed to gain traction. The data comes after the Bank of England (BoE) rate hike on November 5, with investors pricing in 75% odds of an additional increase toward year-end.
US President Donald Trump said that the US doesn’t need a deal with Iran. At the same time, he instructed Vice President Vance to focus on domestic issues, rather than trying to seal a peace deal with Tehran.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature comments by the Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, the NY Fed's John Williams and other officials. On Friday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. A higher-than-foreseen reading could open the door for further tightening.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3234, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot remains capped beneath the cluster of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) grouped around 1.3346. The pair is holding just above the prior downtrend resistance break near 1.3221, which now acts as immediate support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 40.5 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a fully oversold condition.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Triple SMA zone around 1.3346, followed by the descending trend-line barrier tied to the 1.3653 peak, which breaks near 1.3372; a sustained move above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish bias. On the downside, the first line of support sits at the nearby trend-line break around 1.3221, with the current 1.3234 area acting as a pivotal zone; a daily close below this floor would expose the pair to further weakness while broader resistance levels at 1.3708 and 1.3874 stay well overhead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.60% | 0.33% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.23% | 0.33% | 0.05% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.23% | 0.31% | 0.04% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.18% | 0.19% | -0.04% | 0.52% | 0.23% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.23% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.55% | 0.27% | 0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.60% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.52% | -0.55% | -0.27% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.23% | -0.27% | 0.27% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.42% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Australian Dollar falls to its lowest level since January as risk aversion and a stronger US Dollar weigh on the pair.
- Hawkish Fed remarks and stronger US inflation reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes.
- The RBA signals a potential pause in tightening after raising interest rates to 4.85% last week.
AUD/USD extends losses on Thursday, slipping to its lowest level since January as investors turn to the US Dollar (USD) for safety. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations lend further support to the Greenback. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6808, down 0.60% on the day.
US technology shares came under pressure after reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had resigned, helping the US Dollar recover from a modest intraday dip. Investors also grew more cautious after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US does not need a deal with Iran.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, climbs to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.19.
On the monetary policy front, traders fully price in a December Fed hike, with a 25-basis-point (bps) move favoured and a small chance of a larger 50 bps increase. Markets also expect further tightening into 2027 as more Fed officials call for higher rates to bring inflation under control.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that policy needs to become restrictive to lower inflation. She favours smaller moves but said a larger hike could be needed if the Fed falls behind. Earlier this week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also backed further tightening.
Before Tuesday’s US inflation report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a monthly core inflation reading around 0.3% could put a half-point December hike on the table. Core inflation came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast.
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signalled it may pause after raising its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% last week, its fifth hike this year. The RBA dropped its explicit reference to further hikes, and Governor Michele Bullock said it was time to assess how the economy was responding to higher borrowing costs.
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations held steady at 5.3% in November, well above the RBA's 2%-3% inflation target range. The Melbourne Institute survey measures how much households expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. Traders now turn to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the next read on inflation.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.57% | 0.26% | 0.20% | |
| EUR | -0.21% | 0.09% | -0.19% | -0.15% | 0.36% | 0.03% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.29% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.22% | 0.28% | -0.04% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.54% | 0.21% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.15% | 0.22% | -0.04% | 0.50% | 0.18% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.57% | -0.36% | -0.28% | -0.54% | -0.50% | -0.31% | -0.35% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | -0.03% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.18% | 0.31% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.20% | 0.02% | 0.10% | -0.16% | -0.12% | 0.35% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold falls for a third straight day as hawkish Fed expectations continue to dominate market sentiment.
- Markets now fully price in a December Fed rate hike following stronger US inflation and hawkish Fed remarks.
- XAU/USD remains bearish below the 20-day SMA, while the RSI near 41 points to weak buying momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) slides to a fresh year-to-date low on Thursday as bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes lift the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,853, down more than 3% on the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades near 103.10, its highest level since April 2025.
Selling pressure on Gold intensified as US equities fell following reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had resigned. The stock sell-off may have prompted some investors to sell Gold to cover losses elsewhere or meet margin calls.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that policy needs to become restrictive and that she is seeing higher energy costs feed through to other prices. She said smaller moves are less disruptive to the economy, though a larger hike could be needed if the Fed falls behind.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller put a 50-basis-point (bps) hike in December on traders’ radar before Tuesday’s US inflation report. Waller said a half-point hike could be needed if October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in “around 0.3% or higher.” And that’s what happened. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, beating the 0.3% estimate.
Markets fully price in December Fed hike
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU note that "there are currently around 28bps of hikes priced by December, and 43bps of hikes priced by the following meeting in January," which "indicat[es] that even if the Fed hikes by 25bps in December, it is now expected to quickly follow up with another 25bps hike at the start of next year."
ING strategists add that "the combination of hawkish Fed speak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the Dollar," with DXY now "back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels." They stress that "real front-end rate differentials [are] continuing to fuel strong Dollar momentum" and that "this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in."
The prospect of higher borrowing costs takes some shine off Gold as investors favour assets that pay interest. Traders now turn to the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Friday, with several Fed officials also set to speak over the rest of the week.
US-Iran developments are also in focus. US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social, “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed.” If tensions escalate, Oil prices could climb again and keep inflation elevated for longer.
Technical analysis: Weak RSI keeps downside risks in focus
On the daily chart, XAU/USD trades below the lower Bollinger Band (20,2), which now acts as immediate resistance near $3,865. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36, below the neutral 50 level and still above oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly negative, pointing to a pickup in bearish momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the lower Bollinger band near $3,865, followed by the psychological horizontal barrier at $4,000. Above that, the Bollinger middle band around $4,037 and a prior horizontal level at $4,150 form a broader cap before the upper Bollinger band near $4,209.
On the downside, initial support sits near $3,850. A break below that level would bring the psychological $3,800 mark into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD holds near its lowest level since May 2025 amid persistent US Dollar strength.
- Higher-than-expected US jobless claims weigh on the Greenback, though hawkish Fed expectations limit the downside.
- ECB rate hike expectations offer limited support as concerns about Eurozone growth persist.
EUR/USD trades flat during Thursday’s American trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) gives back some ground after hitting a fresh year-to-date high. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1087, up from an intraday low of 1.1066, its weakest level since May 2025.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 102.95 after reaching 103.08 earlier in the day. The Greenback lost some momentum after US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200K from 191K the previous week, above the 195K forecast. The four-week average held steady at 195.25K.
The Greenback remains supported by growing calls from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for further rate hikes to bring inflation under control. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that policy needs to become restrictive and that she is seeing higher energy costs feed through to other prices. Beth added smaller moves are less disruptive to the economy, though a larger hike could be needed if the Fed falls behind.
Earlier this week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also backed further tightening. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said before Tuesday’s inflation report that a monthly core inflation reading around 0.3% could put a half-point December hike on the table.
Core inflation came in at 0.3% and traders now fully price in a December hike. A 25-basis-point (bps) move remains the favourite, with a small chance of a larger 50 bps increase. Markets also expect the Fed to keep raising rates into 2027.
Energy-driven inflation risks remain in focus after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US does not need a deal with Iran. Traders now turn to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the next read on inflation.
Euro outlook softens as ECB caution contrasts with Fed tightening
A Reuters poll published on Thursday showed all 71 economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in December. Of those, 46 see December as the final hike of the cycle, while 25 expect another increase, most likely in the first quarter of 2027.
Strategists at Rabobank caution that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December,” pointing to signals from “the last ECB press conference” which “suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerned about the growth outlook.”
In Rabobank’s house view, “market pricing for 2027 ECB rate rises remains too aggressive,” and they add that “another factor that could weigh on the EUR in the coming months is uncertainties about what a far-right president in France could mean for EU cooperation going forward.”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack recognized on Thursday that the Fed is doing good work on the “job side of the mandate,” but it “has been missing on the inflation mandate for years.”
Hammack added that recent data shows inflation moving in the wrong direction. Despite this, she preferred a gradual approach to adjust interest rates and acknowledged that the Fed “needs to move rates higher to get to restrictive rate policy.”
Key takeaways:
Fed is doing very well on job side of mandate
Fed has been missing on inflation mandate for years
Most recent inflation data show its moving in wrong direction
There are real demand pressures contributing to high inflation
We need to move to restrictve monetary policy to lower inflation
Worries economy could form inflationary mindset
Goes into all FOMC meetings with an open mind
Prefers to see smaller, steadier Fed rate moves
Fed needs to move rates higher to get to restrictive rate policy
Doesn’t believe Fed is behind curve, if that happens would consider more aggressive action
Smaller, steadier rate increases give economy time to adjust
Recent inflation data has shown broadening price pressures
Job market static, would not describe it has healthy due to lack of dynamism
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
US President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran in one of several Truth Social posts on Thursday. In the same post, Trump said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on what he described as widespread crime and corruption in Democratic-led cities and states.
The remarks came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was weighing face-to-face talks with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei in an effort to end the war. The discussions were preliminary, and no date had been set.
Trump’s Truth Social post
I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reversed earlier losses after Trump’s remarks, rising more than 1% on the day to around $86.40 a barrel.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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