Forex News

• Australia’s Consumer Price Index is expected to have eased in April, but to remain near long-term highs.
• Monthly CPI inflation is expected to have eased amid the Australian government’s fuel excise relief.
• April’s CPI figures are likely to keep pressure on the RBA to tighten monetary policy further.

The highlight in the Australian economic docket this week is the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which are expected to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. Consumer inflation is forecast to slow down to a 4.4% year-on-year (YoY) rate, down from 4.6% in March, yet still at its highest levels since 2023, and well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2% to 3% target for price stability.

The Australian government’s decision to halve fuel excise in April might have contributed to taming monthly inflation to 0.6% in April from the previous month’s 1.1% reading. The Trimmed Mean CPI, however, considered more relevant to assess underlying inflationary trends, is expected to have accelerated to 3.4% in the 12 months to April from 3.3% in March and 0.4% monthly from the previous 0.3% rate.

On the whole, these numbers might provide a momentary respite to the RBA, but they do not ease pressure on the central bank to keep tightening borrowing costs. Investors are pricing a pause at the next monetary policy meeting due in mid-June, as the consequences of Iran’s conflict seem to be starting to take a toll on the Australian economy.

What to expect from Australia’s inflation rate numbers?

April’s CPI figures are expected to confirm that the higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict keep boosting consumer prices, although recent reports warn about pass-through effects, with inflationary effects visible on a range of products from food to recreation or building materials.

In this context, the central bank would celebrate some moderation on the CPI growth, especially after the labour data released last week showed that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5% in April, its highest level since September.. 

The RBA, nevertheless, remains focused on inflation as the main target of its monetary policy. The minutes of May’s meeting showed nearly unanimous support for the third consecutive interest rate hike and reflected a hawkishly-leaning stance as the board projects price pressures to remain above target for an extended period.

Analysts from Westpac support that view, as they see Australian inflation peaking at 5% this year, and return to the RBA’s target only in late 2027: “Brent oil is now expected to average $125 per barrel in Q2. Headline inflation is now expected to peak lower at 5.0%yr in Q3 2026, but prove more persistent, ending the year at 4.9%yr and reaching 2.5%yr by end-2027.”

Interest rates, however, are likely to remain steady at June’s meeting, with an August hike on the table. May’s minutes also revealed that most RBA board members consider the current 4.35% Cash Rate target as somewhat restrictive, and that there is now some margin to observe how households and businesses react to the current conditions and to developments in the Middle East. Any sign of inflation moderation, even a mild one, in this case, will support that stance.

How could the Consumer Price Index report affect AUD/USD?

With inflation figures well above target, and the US-Iran conflict in a stalemate, any deviation in the Consumer Price Index data might have a significant impact on the Australian Dollar’s volatility. April’s will be the last CPI release before the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting, and, although it is unlikely to alter expectations of a rate pause, it will provide further insight into the banks’ next steps.

If final numbers meet market consensus, the impact on the Aussie is expected to be minor, with all eyes on the US-Iran peace process. A lower-than-expected inflation will practically confirm steady interest rates in June, and might cast doubt on an August rate hike, which is highly likely to add bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD).

The risk, however, is of a strong CPI reading, especially if the yearly inflation accelerates unexpectedly. This would signal stronger-than-expected second-round inflationary effects and increase pressure on the RBA to keep tightening its monetary policy. This option would have a positive impact on the AUD.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD is showing a somewhat stronger stance this week, according to FXStreet Analyst, Guillermo Alcala, although resistance around 0.7190 remains a significant hurdle for bulls: “The pair has broken above the triangle pattern observed last week, but bulls seem to be losing momentum after failing to breach resistance at the 0.7190 area.”

On the downside, Alcala sees key support at 0.7080: “Downside attempts are likely to find support at a reverse trendline, now in the area of 0.7145. Further down, a break of May’s 19 low at 0.7080 would signal the negation of the bullish view and expose the April 13 low, near 0.7030.”

• AUD/JPY holds uptrend but stalls below 114.74 resistance.
• RSI flattens in bullish territory, signaling fading buyer momentum.
• Break below 114.00 exposes 113.63 and 112.77 supports.

The Australian Dollar registers modest gains of 0.14% against the Japanese Yen as improved risk appetite increased demand for riskier currencies, eroding the Yen's safe-haven status.  At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 114.17, after reaching a daily low of 113.78.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Price action shows the uptrend remains intact, but fears of a possible intervention in the FX markets to prop up the Yen are capping the advance.

Going upwards, the AUD/JPY's first key resistance area is the yearly peak at 114.74, which, once surpassed, opens the door to test 115.00. A breach of the latter will expose the 115.50 mark, followed by the psychological 116.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), although bullish, has turned flat, an indication that buyers may be losing momentum. Hence, caution on the upside is warranted, as Japanese authorities might not hesitate to propel the Yen, an invitation for further downside on the cross-pair.

Downwards, the first support for AUD/JPY would be 114.00. Below this level, the next area of interest would be the 20-day SMA at 113.63, before it dives to the 50-day SMA at 112.77.

AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25% for a third straight meeting on Wednesday.
• All eyes are on the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Breman’s presser for fresh interest rate cues.
• The New Zealand Dollar could experience intense volatility following the RBNZ policy announcements.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting, as the impact of the Iran war continues to hit the economic growth and fuel inflation pressures.

The RBNZ interest rate decision will be announced at 02:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Review (MPR), the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the Minutes of the meeting. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman’s post-monetary policy meeting press conference will follow at 03:00 GMT.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), which has been broadly consolidating against the US Dollar (USD) since mid- April, could see a big reaction to the RBNZ event risks.

What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision?

Barring any surprises on the rate decision, the RBNZ updated OCR and inflation forecasts, along with Governor Breman’s remarks, will be closely scrutinized to reaffirm the market expectations of at least two interest rate hikes this year in the face of the US-Iran war impact on energy prices and inflation.

“Our current forecast is for 50 basis points (bps) of tightening in 2026, though this is highly dependent on energy market dynamics. Swap market pricing is 21 bps for July and 75 bps by year-end,” ING’s FX strategists said.  

However, amid inflation expectations returning to the RBNZ target range of 2%-3% and a negative economic output gap, it remains to be seen if the RBNZ pushes back against any near-term rate hike or surprises with a lift-off in a pre-emptive measure against high inflationary prospects.

Back in April, Breman noted: “We discussed raising rates at today's meeting, adding that the Committee is “not yet seeing rising prices becoming embedded in inflation expectations.”

However, she kept the door ajar for rate hikes by saying that “tightening could be at every meeting or every other meeting, it depends.”

The OCR projections will be key to watch if the central bank doesn’t deliver an unexpected rate hike. In February’s MPS, the Kiwi central bank said that it sees the OCR at 2.26% in June 2026, while projecting 2.4% by the end of the year.

How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?

Any downward revision to the OCR forecast, citing weak economic prospects, could be read as dovish, reinforcing the selling pressure around the NZD and driving the NZD/USD pair back toward the 0.5800 level.

The Kiwi Dollar could also come under intense selling pressure if Governor Breman fails to provide any guidance on the tightening path.

However, in case the RBNZ surprises with a rate hike, it would be a clear bullish case for the NZD. That could initiate a fresh trend reversal in the NZD/USD pair toward the 0.6000 psychological barrier.  

If the central bank decides to stand pat, as expected, but revises up the OCR projection for this year, it could be perceived as a hawkish hold, also serving positive for the Kiwi.

Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:

“The Kiwi pair now sits below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5853 and the 100-day SMA at 0.5890, while the 21-day SMA near 0.5894 also leans overhead, suggesting rallies are likely to face a supply area. The Relative Strength Index holds just below the 50 midpoint around 46, hinting that downside pressure still dominates, though without oversold conditions.”

“On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at a confluence of healthy resistances near 0.5890, where the 21-day SMA and the 100-day SMA converge. A clear break of that supply zone will negate the near-term bearish bias and initiate an uptrend toward the 0.5950 psychological level on its way toward the 0.6000 round level. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-day SMA at 0.5837. A sustained move beneath this longer-term average would reinforce the downtrend and expose lower levels toward the 0.5800 figure in the coming sessions,” Dhwani adds.

• The Aussie has surged 14% on the Kiwi since July, powered by two central banks moving in opposite directions.
• That rate gap is now at its widest, but both banks are converging again and draining the trend's fuel.
• Back-to-back Australian inflation and an RBNZ decision on Wednesday could be the inflection point.

The Australian Dollar has spent the better part of a year bullying its trans-Tasman cousin, and the scoreboard is lopsided. AUD/NZD has just tagged its highest level since around 2013, up roughly 14% from its July low, closing higher in eight of the last ten months and on pace to make it eleven. The engine behind that run is the rarest thing in currency markets, two neighbouring central banks marching in opposite directions at the same time. The trouble for anyone still chasing the Aussie higher here is that this is precisely the moment the engine starts to run out of fuel.

Two neighbours, two opposite playbooks

The divergence has been stark. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) from a 5.5% peak all the way to 2.25%, the most aggressive easing cycle in the developed world, as the New Zealand economy ground through a downturn. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did the exact opposite, hiking three times this year to 4.35% as Australian growth held up and inflation refused to cool. The same Middle East Oil shock that is feeding price pressure on both sides of the Tasman landed on two economies sitting at opposite ends of the cycle, and the central banks responded in opposite directions. The result was a yield gap that blew out in the Aussie's favour and a trend that has only really known one way.

The fuel gauge is dropping

Here is the catch. A trend built on a widening rate gap struggles the moment that gap stops widening, and convergence is now creeping in from both ends. The RBNZ has stopped cutting entirely, holding three meetings in a row, and is openly flirting with hikes because its own inflation is breaching the top of its target band and heading toward 4%. The RBA, after three straight increases, has signalled it now has room to pause and assess. So the differential that has powered the Aussie for a year is set to plateau, and could begin narrowing if the Kiwi side starts hiking while the Aussie side sits still. The very mechanism that drove the move is quietly going into reverse.

Stretched at levels last seen 13 years ago

The chart is flashing the same warning. On the monthly candlesticks, the Stochastic RSI is pinned in overbought territory near 80, and price is pressing into a region the pair has not visited in roughly 157 months. Closing green in eight of the last ten months is an extraordinarily persistent run, and persistence like that tends to mean-revert rather than extend indefinitely. The Aussie is currently leaning on the 1.2300 handle, a long way above its rising daily averages, with the 50-day sitting back near 1.2100 as the first real trend support. This is not a top call, but it is a mature trend meeting its first serious overhead resistance with momentum already stretched thin.

Wednesday is the inflection

The timing could hardly be sharper. Wednesday delivers a back-to-back trans-Tasman collision, with Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 01:30 GMT followed just thirty minutes later by the RBNZ decision at 02:00 GMT and its press conference at 03:00 GMT. The bullish-Aussie case needs hot Australian inflation to keep the RBA hiking, paired with a dovish RBNZ. The reversal case needs the opposite, and consensus is leaning that way. Headline CPI is seen cooling to around 4.4% YoY from 4.6%, which would hand the RBA exactly the excuse it flagged to pause, while a hawkish RBNZ that upgrades its inflation track and signals hikes would attack the trade from the other side.

For now the bias stays higher while the pair holds above the 1.2250 area, with a clean monthly break of the 1.2300 handle opening a path toward the 1.2400 zone where the 2013 highs sit. The more interesting setup, though, is the fade. A soft inflation print and a hawkish RBNZ on Wednesday could cap the move, and a slip back below the 1.2200 handle would be the first real crack in the gap-driven trend, with the rising 50-day near 1.2100 marking the line that still defines the broader uptrend. The Aussie has had the Kiwi's number for nearly a year. Wednesday is when the market finds out whether the gap can keep doing all the heavy lifting.

AUD/NZD weekly chart

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that macro headwinds continue to pressure the Indonesian Rupiah, with higher US yields, elevated Oil prices and narrowing rate differentials weighing on IDR against the Dollar. He notes rising macro pressures from a weaker current account, fiscal subsidy risks and softer growth, but also stresses that stretched positioning and cheap valuations leave USD/IDR vulnerable to a catalyst-driven reversal.

Macro pressure but reversal risk building

"Macro headwinds remain dominant. Higher US yields (2-year yield above 4%), elevated oil prices, and narrowing interest rate differentials (at historically low levels) continue to pressure IDR against the dollar."

"Macro pressures are increasing. Deteriorating current account (-1.1% of GDP in Q1), rising fiscal risks from energy subsidies, and softer underlying growth momentum are adding to rupiah vulnerability. Q1 growth has been driven by a strong increase in government consumption (+1.3pp to growth vs. +0.4pp in Q4 2025)."

"Inflation risks are skewed to the upside, driven by higher oil prices, a weaker rupiah, and a closing output gap, even as subsidies partially delay pass-through. We forecast headline inflation to average 3% in 2026 (1.9% in 2025) and GDP growth of 5.3% (5.1% in 2025)."

"BI tightening (50bps hike in May) and higher SRBI yields (12-month at 6.8%) provide some support for the rupiah. But concerns over government intervention in commodity exports are further weighing on investor confidence. Additional two 25bps BI rate hikes could be on the cards this year to defend the rupiah."

"With positioning stretched and valuations cheap, the risk-reward may be shifting, making USD/IDR increasingly vulnerable to a catalyst-driven reversal. The pair is now trading deep in overbought territory, while IDR appears to be quite cheap (near 2013 taper tantrum levels) on a real effective exchange rate basis. A potential US–Iran de-escalation could be a key trigger for reversal."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• With both central banks frozen in near-identical hawkish-hold postures, the rate gap that usually drives Cable has flatlined.
• The result is a Pound coiling ever tighter inside its converging daily EMAs.
• The next real move is almost certainly US-made with the data calendar lopsided toward Thursday's inflation print.

Cable looks dead this week, and that is not an accident. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have quietly become the same central bank. Both are sitting on their hands, both are watching above-target inflation get shoved higher by the same Middle East oil shock, both have hawkish dissenters in the room, and both now face a market pricing the next move as a hike rather than a cut. When two policy paths line up this neatly, the interest rate differential that gives GBP/USD its direction simply stops moving, and the pair is left to grind sideways while everyone waits for one side to blink.

Two banks, one problem

It is rare to see the transatlantic policy picture this symmetrical. The BoE has held Bank Rate at 3.75% for three meetings running, with its most recent vote splitting 8 to 1 in favour of a hold and the lone dissenter pushing for a hike. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is running at 3.3%, and the bank itself expects energy pass-through to nudge it higher still over the coming quarters. Now look across the Atlantic, and the script is almost word-for-word identical. The Fed is parked, its speakers have leaned hawkish into the week, and traders are pricing a genuine chance of a July hike that barely existed a month ago. The same surge in Oil that is testing the BoE is testing the Fed, and neither bank can do much beyond wait and see how the shock propagates. Two committees, one exogenous problem, and no appetite on either side to commit.

A coil, not a trend

This stalemate is written all over the chart. On the daily candlesticks, the 50 and 200-day EMAs have compressed into a tight band roughly between 1.3400 and 1.3450, with price pinned right on top of them and the broader 1.3200 to 1.3900 range that has contained the pair all year still fully intact. That kind of moving-average convergence is not noise, it is the technical fingerprint of a market with no reason to choose a direction. Momentum on the daily Stochastic RSI has rolled over toward the lower end of its range while price refuses to break, the classic signature of a coiled spring. The Pound spent Tuesday on the defensive, drifting toward the floor of its recent range before a modest late bounce, but at no point did it threaten to leave the box. This is compression, plain and simple, and compression eventually resolves with force.

The break will be made in Washington, not London

Here is the part that actually matters for positioning. The catalyst calendar is heavily lopsided toward the US. The UK has essentially nothing of substance on the docket until the next BoE decision in June, and while there is no shortage of central bank speakers this week on both sides, none of them can realistically pre-commit ahead of fresh data, so the parade of speeches is noise. The US, by contrast, delivers its Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, before rolling into its monthly data cycle. Core PCE is seen ticking up to 3.3% YoY with the headline rate expected to accelerate toward 3.8%, and a hot number would feed the hike narrative and hand the US Dollar a fresh leg. That makes the resolution of this coil overwhelmingly a dollar story, not a Pound one. The Pound is a passenger here, the dollar holds the wheel.

For now, treat the pair as range-bound while it holds inside the EMA envelope. Fade pushes toward the 1.3500 cap and buy dips toward the 1.3400 floor where the 200-day sits, but keep the size honest, the real trade is the break. A daily close below 1.3400 opens the path toward 1.3300 and ultimately the 1.3200 range floor, while a close above 1.3500 targets the 1.3600s and, further out, the top of the range near 1.3850. The medium-term play is patience, let the coil snap, then ride the breakout in whichever direction Thursday's PCE and the US data that follows dictate. Bias inside the range is neutral with a mild downside lean given the dollar's hawkish tailwind. Two frozen central banks cannot hold the spring down forever.

GBP/USD daily chart

• The RBNZ is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Wednesday, but the forward track is where the real action sits.
• Inflation has pushed back to the top of the target band and is forecast to keep climbing, leaving the bank's old easing bias looking badly dated.
• Rate markets have quietly flipped to pricing the next move as a hike rather than a cut, setting up a hawkish-hold trap for the Kiwi.

There is something almost comic about a central bank that spent a year insisting rates needed to come down, only to find itself staring at inflation heading the wrong way. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from a 5.5% peak all the way to 2.25% by late last year, the most aggressive easing cycle in the developed world. On Wednesday at 02:00 GMT, it is expected to leave that rate untouched for a third straight meeting and, in all likelihood, keep talking about looking through near-term price pressures. The trouble is that the tape, the data, and increasingly the bank's own forecasts no longer agree that those pressures are going anywhere.

The easing that won't stop biting

The uncomfortable truth for the RBNZ is that monetary policy works with a lag of roughly twelve to eighteen months, which means the deep cuts delivered through 2024 and 2025 are only now feeding through into activity and prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.1% YoY in the final quarter of last year, breaching the 1% to 3% target band, and the bank's own projections have headline inflation pushing toward 4% in the middle of this year. That is not a rounding error; it is a central bank that eased into the teeth of an inflation problem and is now hoping the problem politely resolves itself. The Middle East has not helped. Surging Crude Oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict have lit a fresh fire under imported inflation, and the governor has gone out of her way to keep hikes firmly on the table rather than rule them out.

The market stopped believing the cut story

For a sense of how far the narrative has turned, look at where the rate market now sits. Six months ago, the debate was about how much further the OCR would fall. Today, the swaps curve leans toward a hike before year-end, with bank economists steadily pulling their first-tightening calls forward into late 2026 and penciling in an endpoint back up around 3%. Wholesale rates beyond twelve months have already climbed on that repricing, and several lenders have nudged mortgage rates higher without waiting for the RBNZ to move. A hold on Wednesday is the base case, but a hold delivered alongside upgraded inflation forecasts and a reluctance to commit to any further easing is, in substance, a hawkish hold. That is the scenario the Kiwi is not fully braced for.

Why the forecasts matter more than the rate

This is a full Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), not an interim review, which means fresh projections and a press conference at 03:00 GMT. The OCR track buried in those forecasts will move the Kiwi far more than the unchanged headline number. If the bank lifts its inflation profile and flags the prospect of decisive tightening should second-round effects take hold, that is rocket fuel for the currency. If instead it leans on the transitory script and signals patience, expect the Kiwi to fade the disappointment. Adding to the noise, the government's Budget lands Thursday, so traders will be reading the rate decision and the fiscal stance together rather than in isolation.

For now the Kiwi is trading near 0.5850 after grinding lower through the overnight session and stabilising just above 0.5830 on the intraday chart. On the daily, price has slipped below its clustered 50 and 200-day EMAs, which sit just overhead in the 0.5850 to 0.5900 band and have capped every rally this year. A genuinely hawkish statement opens a run at the 0.5900 handle, with 0.5950 the stretch target if the tightening rhetoric is explicit. A dovish or non-committal hold sends it back toward the 0.5800 handle, and a break there exposes 0.5750. The bias into the event is neutral with an upside skew, simply because the bank has more room to surprise hawkish than dovish from here. The wider question is how long the RBNZ can keep calling this inflation temporary before the curve forces its hand.

NZD/USD 15-minute chart

Standard Chartered economists Saurav Anand and Siddharth Sadasivam note that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised policy rates by 100bps to curb inflation, cool credit-driven imports and support the LKR. They expect further hikes in 2026, with inflation staying above target and risks from high Oil prices, external pressures and weather-related energy costs.

CBSL tightening path and inflation risks

"The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) raised policy rates by 100bps on 26 May to curb rising inflation, contain still-strong domestic demand (leading to a rise in credit-driven imports) and support the LKR."

"The CBSL statement clearly acknowledged that headline CPI inflation is likely to remain above its 5% target in the period ahead."

"We continue to see the CBSL raising policy rates by a further 50bps in Q3-2026, with risk of another 50bps hike in Q4 if higher crude oil prices add to inflationary pressures and increase depreciation pressure on the LKR."

"We therefore revise our end-2026 policy rate forecast to 9.25% (from 8.75% previously)."

"We acknowledge the risk of the CBSL keeping policy rates unchanged in 2026 in case of a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and if crude oil prices stabilise below USD 90/bbl in Q3-2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• AUD/USD trades flat as Iran tensions temper risk appetite.
• Hot CPI could pressure the RBA after three rate hikes.
• US data spotlight shifts to GDP, jobs and Core PCE.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers at around its Tuesday’s opening price during the North American session, with traders awaiting the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Meanwhile, geopolitics are weighing on AUD/USD, which is trading flat at 0.7170.

AUD/USD steadies as traders await key inflation data

During Tuesday’s Asian session, US military strikes on Iran shook markets that had been enjoying some upside, following weekend news from US President Donald Trump revealed progress in US-Iran negotiations.

In the meantime, data from the US showed that American consumers are becoming pessimistic due to high energy prices, which are now affecting several sectors of the economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.1 in May, though it still beat economists’ forecast of 92, according to Bloomberg’s poll.

Aside from this, AUD/USD traders are laser-focused on the release of the Australian inflation report, which is projected to edge lower from 4.6% in March to 4.4% YoY in April. The Trimmed Mean CPI, sought by many as the most relevant inflation reading, is estimated to accelerate by 3.4% YoY, up from 3.3% in March.

If the data comes in hotter than expected, it would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has so far tightened policy three times this year by 75 basis points due to high inflation readings. Nevertheless, an uptick in the latest employment report spurred worries that monetary policy might be slightly restrictive, triggering a deeper slowdown.

In the US, the economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, the second reading of Q1 2026 GDP, labor market data, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7168, retaining a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot holds above the cluster of rising trend-line supports drawn from 0.6897 and 0.6833, which currently intersect just under 0.7130. The latest 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7100 sit comfortably below price and reinforce the notion of an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 51 suggests only modest, directionless momentum, leaving price action rather than oscillators to guide the immediate tone.

On the downside, initial support lies in the 0.7124–0.7129 rising trendline zone, with further protection provided by the grouped SMAs near 0.7100 and, on a wider horizon, the previously broken descending trendline now acting as a historical floor around 0.6455. On the topside, resistance is projected from former support trend structures now capping the advance toward 0.7762 and then 0.8160, and unless these upper boundaries are challenged, the pair is likely to remain in a grinding but still constructive ascent above its rising daily supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)