Forex News
Banco de Mexico (Banxico) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a 4 to 1 vote split, to 7.25% with Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath voting to keep rates unchanged at 7.50%.
Mexico’s central bank delivers a 25 bps cut in a 4–1 split, cautious tone hints at slower policy easing ahead
On its monetary policy statement, the Governing Board deemed appropriate to continue the rate-cutting cycle and made the decision with the assessment of the current inflationary outlook.
Regarding the path of interest rates, “the Board will evaluate reducing the reference rate,” removing from the statement that “the Board will assess further adjustments to the reference rate-” This indicates that policymakers could pause its easing cycle, amid growing concerns of stubborn inflation.
Banxico also updated its economic projections, and they see headline inflation converging to the bank’s 3% goal by Q3 2026.
USD/MXN Price Chart – Daily
On the decision, the USD/MXN fell from around 18.59 towards 18.57, but it remains shy of testing the daily low of 18.55. A breach of the latter could expose the confluence of the 20 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 18.46/48, before testing the yearly low of 18.19. On further weakness, the 18.00 milestone lies ahead.
On the upside, if USD/MXN climbs above 18.60, the next resistance would be the September 2 high at 18.86, ahead of the 19.00 figure.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
The US Dollar (USD) added to Wednesday’s small correction, slipping back to multi-day lows in the context of a widespread recovery in the risk-associated galaxy. In the meantime, the US federal government shutdown extended further, hitting a record with still no solution in sight.
Here’s what to watch on Friday, November 7:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated for the second consecutive day on Thursday, coming under extra selling pressure amid shrinking US yields across the curve, shutdown concerns, and the improved tone in the risk complex. The flash U-Mich Consumer Sentiment and the New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations survey will wrap up the docket. In addition, the Fed’s Williams, Jefferson and Miran are due to speak.
EUR/USD rose to multi-day highs well past the 1.1500 barrier on the back of the offered stance in the Greenback. Balance of Trade results in Germany are next on tap on the domestic calendar alongside the speech by the ECB’s Elderson.
GBP/USD gathered strong upside impulse and surpassed the 1.3100 mark following the BoE’s steady hand and the US Dollar’s correction. Next on tap across the Channel will be the Halifax House Price Index, followed by the BBA Mortgage Rate.
In quite a choppy week, USD/JPY edged markedly lower, revisiting the sub-153.00 zone and leaving behind Wednesday’s solid performance. The BoJ Summary of Opinions, along with the preliminary Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes, will be the salient data releases in Japan.
AUD/USD built on Wednesday’s recovery, heading toward the area beyond the key 0.6500 hurdle once again on Thursday. Next in Oz will be the Balance of Trade results.
WTI prices retreated for the third day in a row, easing below the $60.00 mark per barrel as traders assessed the potential resurgence of supply glut amid weaker demand.
Gold regained some balance and climbed to three-day highs past the $4,000 mark per troy ounce following the selling pressure on the US Dollar and rising uncertainty surrounding the US shutdown. Silver prices built on Wednesday’s gains and approached the key $49.00 mark per ounce, or three-day highs.
- The Dow Jones shed weight on Thursday as the AI rally withers further.
- The US government shutdown has officially become the longest in US history.
- Private data sets, in the absence of official data, are pointing to potential problems.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled 400 points on Thursday, falling to its lowest valuation in nearly two weeks as equity indexes were crushed underfoot by a broad pivot out of AI tech stocks. US economic data is restricted to volatile private datasets amid the ongoing federal government closure, causing investors to fret about wonky release figures that have a poor historical correlation to large-scale government data collection and reporting.
Overextended AI stock declines drag down broader market
The Dow Jones is back below the 47,000 handle, down around 2.6% peak-to-trough after posting record highs just above 48,000 at the end of October. A general decline in tech stocks is getting a fresh look on Thursday following an initial selloff and brief recovery through the middle of the week. Salesforce (CRM), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) are all in the red for the day as investors begin to take a closer look at whether sky-high valuations and forward P/E ratios measured in centuries for data center tech suppliers can continue to be justified in the face of still-mythical revenue generation from AI projects.
US job losses accelerate, fraying investor nerves
US Challenger Job Cuts showed a net loss of a little over 153K employment positions in October. This marks the highest Challenger figure reported since April of this year, when the Trump administration formally announced its widespread tariff strategy that would take months and several delays to enact. Excluding the Covid pandemic era, this marks the second-worst Challenger Job Cuts print since data collection and reporting began.
The US government shutdown has officially entered the record books as the longest federal closure in US history, highlighting President Donald Trump’s past statements that the President, regardless of who it is, is singularly responsible for government shutdowns and is solely responsible for ending them as quickly as possible. With the US government on ice, official datasets have gone dark, pushing investors into over-reliance on private data sources that tend to have a tenuous, volatile relationship with smoothed, large-scale official collections from government sources.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Gold peaks $4,019 as a weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields lift Bullion.
- US shutdown warnings from Republican leader boost safe-haven demand for Gold.
- Mixed Fed tone and softer jobs data revive December rate cut bets, supporting the Gold outlook.
- The US Challenger report by Gray & Christmas showed that employers fired over 150,000 people in October.
Gold price advances on Thursday after reaching a daily high of $4,019, but retreats below the $4,000 mark even though the US Dollar and US Treasury yields tumbled. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades with gains of over 0.10% at around $3,985.
Bullion steadies after brief pullback, supported by weaker Dollar, falling yields, and renewed political and trade uncertainty
US Dollar weakness was the main driver that kept the yellow metal underpinned during the day, as the US government shutdown could extend further, said the Republican House Leader Mike Johnson, who added that he’s less optimistic about the shutdown ending.
Markets were also shaken by the release of the Challenger report, which revealed that companies slashed over 150,000 jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years. The news triggered a reprice of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the December meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is growing skeptical about US President Donald Trump's tariffs, as reported by Bloomberg, that added, “Businesses and countries suffering from the duties and looking for resolution, though, are set for months of uncertainty.” Consequently, Bullion seems poised to resume its uptrend as it usually performs well in uncertain and low-interest-rate environments.
Aside from this, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are crossing the wires, led by Cleveland’s Fed Beth Hammack, sticking to her hawkish rhetoric. At the same time, Fed Governor Michael Barr was slightly more neutral, echoing some comments by New York Fed John Williams, who said that neutral rates would be around 1%.
Daily market movers: Gold surges as US yields drop
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, slumps 0.42% down to 99.73.
- US Treasury yields are also plunging, with the 10-year Treasury note yield diving seven and a half basis points to 4.085%. US real yields — which correlate inversely to Gold prices — collapse eight and a half basis points to 1.785%.
- The US Challenger report by Gray & Christmas showed that employers fired over 150,000 people in October, the largest reduction for the month in more than 20 years. The survey noted that industries adopting AI-driven changes are the main reason behind the layoffs.
- After the data, money markets see a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, up from 62% a day ago, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
- Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that it is not obvious that the Fed should cut rates again, given inflation. She said that financial conditions are accommodative, and that despite the jobs market looking fragile, she expects the unemployment rate to tick lower.
- Fed Governor Michael Barr said that progress has been made on inflation, “but there is still work to do.” He added that the central bank must pay attention to “the job market is solid.”
- New York Fed John Williams said the natural rate of interest is hard to pin down. He added that model-based US neutral rate estimates are around 1%.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the lack of official data on inflation during the shutdown “accentuates” his caution about cutting interest rates further.
Technical outlook: Gold price climbs towards $4,000
Gold prices are edging higher after finding a short-term floor around $3,964, the day’s low, though bulls must reclaim the $4,000 milestone and finish the day above the latter on a daily basis to extend the recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher, showing improving momentum, but remains below the neutral 50 mark.
A sustained move above $4,000 would expose resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,083. On the downside, a drop below the October 28 low of $3,886 would open the door for a test of the 50-day SMA around $3,854.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- EUR/USD climbs to a five-day high on renewed US Dollar softness.
- Market sentiment sours on the prolonged US government shutdown, weighing on the Greenback.
- Eurozone Retail Sales disappoint but fail to dent the Euro’s short-term recovery.
The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday amid renewed weakness in the Greenback. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1543, rising to a five-day high after slipping to a fresh three-month low on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six major peers, trades around 99.75, retreating after briefly touching a five-month high on Wednesday. The USD’s decline is partly driven by mounting concerns over the prolonged US government shutdown, now the longest in history, surpassing the previous 35-day record.
The shutdown is delaying the release of key official economic indicators, forcing investors and policymakers to rely on private-sector data to gauge the health of the economy.
Adding to the Dollar’s woes, fresh data from the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest monthly total since 2003. The figure marks a sharp rise from the previous month and points to growing signs of labor-market stress, in contrast with Wednesday’s ADP report, which showed that US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October.
Traders are now reassessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook following last week’s 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another reduction in December is not guaranteed.
Inflation remains above the 2% target, and recent private-sector labor data have been mixed, prompting investors to temper expectations for aggressive easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in about a 70% probability of another rate cut in December, up from 64% earlier in the day but down from 94% a week ago.
Meanwhile, the Euro showed a limited reaction to soft Eurozone Retail Sales data, as traders remained focused on broader US Dollar dynamics. According to Eurostat, Retail Sales slipped 0.1% MoM in September, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual growth slowed to 1.0% from 1.6% in August.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.48% | -0.62% | -0.73% | 0.06% | 0.45% | 0.49% | -0.42% | |
| EUR | 0.48% | -0.15% | -0.25% | 0.55% | 0.93% | 0.98% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.62% | 0.15% | -0.12% | 0.70% | 1.07% | 1.13% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | 0.73% | 0.25% | 0.12% | 0.83% | 1.21% | 1.25% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.55% | -0.70% | -0.83% | 0.39% | 0.41% | -0.49% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.93% | -1.07% | -1.21% | -0.39% | 0.05% | -0.86% | |
| NZD | -0.49% | -0.98% | -1.13% | -1.25% | -0.41% | -0.05% | -0.91% | |
| CHF | 0.42% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -0.34% | 0.49% | 0.86% | 0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF drops 0.35% to 0.8070, pressured by renewed risk aversion.
- Speaker Johnson’s pessimistic comments on the US shutdown weigh on the US Dollar.
- The Swiss National Bank’s remarks reinforce confidence in inflation resilience.
USD/CHF weakens on Thursday, down 0.35% around 0.8070 at the time of writing. Risk-off sentiment dominates the markets, supporting demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc (CHF), while US political uncertainty continues to weigh on the US Dollar (USD). According to Reuters, US House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is “less optimistic” about an imminent end to the government shutdown, deepening fears over its potential economic fallout.
This fragile political backdrop adds to mixed economic signals from the United States (US). October’s ADP Employment Change and Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released earlier in the week beat expectations, but the US Dollar has gained little support.
Markets appear more focused on the deteriorating global outlook and on cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Fed of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated that it would take “two to three years” to bring inflation back to the 2% target, emphasizing the need to keep policy “modestly restrictive” to lower inflation.
On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a confident tone regarding inflation prospects. Chair Martin Schlegel reiterated this week that prices should rise slightly in the coming quarters and that interest rates are expected to remain stable for an extended period. This message, combined with a resilient labor market, as with Switzerland’s unemployment rate steady at 3% in October, reinforces the Franc’s credibility as a safe-haven currency amid global uncertainty.
Against this backdrop of mounting US political risks and steady Swiss policy, the USD/CHF pair remains under pressure, consolidating below the 0.8100 mark after reaching an eleven-week high earlier in the week.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.44% | -0.55% | -0.70% | 0.06% | 0.40% | 0.48% | -0.37% | |
| EUR | 0.44% | -0.11% | -0.26% | 0.50% | 0.84% | 0.92% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.11% | -0.16% | 0.61% | 0.96% | 1.04% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.70% | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.78% | 1.11% | 1.17% | 0.36% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.50% | -0.61% | -0.78% | 0.35% | 0.41% | -0.41% | |
| AUD | -0.40% | -0.84% | -0.96% | -1.11% | -0.35% | 0.08% | -0.75% | |
| NZD | -0.48% | -0.92% | -1.04% | -1.17% | -0.41% | -0.08% | -0.83% | |
| CHF | 0.37% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.36% | 0.41% | 0.75% | 0.83% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack spoke at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. She said that the federal policy should remain modestly restrictive to lower inflation, and forecast that it will take two to three years to return inflation to 2%.
Key takeaways
Not obvious US central bank should cut interest rates again given inflation.
Federal policy should stay modestly restrictive to lower inflation.
Monetary policy is only barely restrictive, if at all.
Seeing pressure on both sides of its employment, inflation mandates.
Expects elevated inflation through 2026.
Inflation to overshoot 2% target by 1 percentage point this year.
It will take two to three years to get inflation back to 2%.
May be on track for a decade of exceeding inflation target.
Does not put high odds on a labor market downturn.
Job market may be more fragile than data indicates.
Expects unemployment to move back down after ticking up this year.
Economy to pick up pace next year.
Financial conditions are quite accommodative.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.50% | -0.79% | 0.12% | 0.52% | 0.58% | -0.41% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | -0.06% | -0.35% | 0.57% | 0.96% | 1.03% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | 0.06% | -0.32% | 0.62% | 1.02% | 1.09% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.79% | 0.35% | 0.32% | 0.93% | 1.34% | 1.37% | 0.40% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | -0.57% | -0.62% | -0.93% | 0.41% | 0.45% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | -0.52% | -0.96% | -1.02% | -1.34% | -0.41% | 0.07% | -0.93% | |
| NZD | -0.58% | -1.03% | -1.09% | -1.37% | -0.45% | -0.07% | -0.99% | |
| CHF | 0.41% | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.40% | 0.53% | 0.93% | 0.99% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr spoke at a virtual event for Fed Communities on Thursday, where he claimed that it is becoming increasingly difficult for those who are less well-off to save. Barr added that the low hiring rates in a low-hire, low-fire environment may indicate some impact of AI adoption in certain sectors.
Key takeaways
It is becoming increasingly difficult for those who are less well-off to save, making them more vulnerable to economic shocks.
There is currently a significant gap in the economy between the top 40% and the rest of the population.
The low hiring rates in a low-hire, low-fire environment may indicate some impact of ai adoption in certain sectors.
The Fed must pay attention to ensuring that the job market is solid.
I see a two-speed economy, with wealthier households thriving.
Progress has been made on inflation, but further work remains to be done.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.49% | -0.72% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.55% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | -0.04% | -0.28% | 0.55% | 0.96% | 1.01% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.49% | 0.04% | -0.24% | 0.59% | 1.00% | 1.05% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.72% | 0.28% | 0.24% | 0.83% | 1.25% | 1.27% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.55% | -0.59% | -0.83% | 0.41% | 0.45% | -0.50% | |
| AUD | -0.50% | -0.96% | -1.00% | -1.25% | -0.41% | 0.05% | -0.90% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -1.01% | -1.05% | -1.27% | -0.45% | -0.05% | -0.95% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.34% | 0.50% | 0.90% | 0.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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