Forex News
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that European natural gas prices rose sharply at the end of last week, with TTF settling near EUR104/MWh on Friday before easing slightly. Colder-than-usual weather in Northwest Europe could accelerate gas storage withdrawals, with EU inventories already declining from a peak just below 75%. The analysts warn that a tight winter gas balance could keep prices highly volatile, making weather conditions an increasingly important market driver.
TTF supported by cold weather
"European gas prices saw significant strength at the end of last week, with TTF settling more than 6% higher on Friday, near EUR104/MWh. Prices eased slightly in early morning trading today."
"Weather forecasts for NW Europe show colder-than-usual weather this week, leading to potentially large storage draws. EU gas storage peaked at just under 75% last Tuesday and has been edging lower since, suggesting the heating season is now underway."
"With a tight balance through the winter, the market is likely to remain extremely volatile, and weather will prove to be even more important than usual."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold starts the week on a positive note as Oil prices fall amid renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts.
- Persistent inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations continue to limit Gold's upside.
- XAU/USD's technical outlook remains bearish as the RSI approaches oversold territory.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery during American trading hours on Monday, supported by falling Oil prices following positive headlines on US-Iran talks. The metal regains ground after hitting a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,943, up 1.76% on the day.
The latest gains come after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain powers regarding negotiations, according to ISNA. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slips toward $97 a barrel, down more than 5% on the day.
“Exchange of messages with the US continues,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday, adding that Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was in Doha to facilitate the process.
Iran said its proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of an agreement, provided Washington ends its naval blockade and meets Tehran’s demands. Still, Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, while the risk of renewed US strikes after the midterm elections persists. However, Axios reported that US President Donald Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time.
Gold now trades around 30% below its all-time high near $5,600 set in January. Since the US-Iran war began in late February, the metal has largely moved opposite to Oil, as elevated energy prices drove inflation higher and prompted central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to tighten monetary policy.
Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation typically encourage demand for Gold. This time, however, the prospect of higher interest rates weighs more heavily on the metal, which pays no yield.
Gold has also failed to gain support from the AI-led technology sell-off, despite the resulting weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields, as traders sell the metal to meet margin calls and cover losses elsewhere.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.60, down 0.37% on the day. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield holds near a seven-week low at 4.92%, well below October’s peak of 5.36%, its highest level since 2002.
What to watch next
Attention now turns to the US midterm elections on November 3, which could influence the US Dollar and, in turn, Gold. Traders also face a busy economic calendar as they look for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path. Monday brings the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), followed by JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday. ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI are due Wednesday, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The Fed voted 10-2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in October, following September’s 25-basis-point (bps) increase, opting for a patient approach in its fight against inflation. Traders price in a 72% chance of a December rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.
Technical analysis: Weak momentum keeps further losses on the table
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish outlook as it trades below the 21-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32 hovers just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading, which together hint that downside momentum is still dominant, even if the sell-off is becoming stretched.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies in the $3,950-$4,000 region, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,089. Above there, the 100-day SMA at $4,209 and a higher horizontal barrier near $4,400 form a broader supply zone, before the 200-day SMA at $4,485 comes into play as a more distant structural ceiling.
On the downside, Gold remains vulnerable to further losses, with immediate support at Friday's yearly low of $3,870. A break below this level could pave the way for further declines.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the Dollar Index slipped back below 102 following the October 28 FOMC meeting, with US GDP and PCE data failing to revive USD momentum. He highlights declining 10-year Treasury yields and concerns over AI investment spending as additional headwinds, while the November 3 midterm elections and November 6 nonfarm payrolls could test whether the Dollar's weakness persists.
Dollar momentum weakens ahead of key US tests
"The DXY Index slipped back below 102 again after the October 28 FOMC meeting."
"Subsequent US GDP and PCE inflation releases did little to restore the USD’s momentum."
"The US Treasury 10-year yield retreated below 5% towards 4.90%, as the equity sell-off drove demand for safety."
"Concerns over cash burn at AI hyperscalers sharpened scrutiny of the investment boom underpinning the US exceptionalism narrative."
"The US midterm elections on November 3 and nonfarm payrolls on November 6 will test whether the USD’s loss of momentum extends."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD falls ahead of the RBA interest rate decision due on Tuesday.
- The RBA is widely expected to raise rates as inflation remains above target.
- A softer US Dollar offers limited support as traders await US elections and key economic data.
AUD/USD trades on the back foot on Monday as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms all its major peers. Traders are likely trimming exposure before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday, weighing on the Aussie despite a softer US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7010, near one-week lows and down 0.33% on the day.
The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), marking its fifth increase this year and taking the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest since 2008. Inflation remains above the central bank’s 2%-3% target range, with headline CPI accelerating to 4.3% YoY in September from 4.0% in August. Annual trimmed mean inflation also rose to 3.6% from a revised 3.5%.
Rabobank’s FX strategists note that, "there is risk of subsequent rate hikes, depending on the trajectory of the oil price after the US mid-term elections,” the recent “lacklustre tone of the AUD” underscores market unease that Governor Bullock may signal rising concern over “the health of the real economy.” In their view, “simply put, expectations for further RBA policy tightening are likely to strengthen if Bullock focuses her commentary tomorrow on inflation risks and are likely to fall if, like the RBNZ, she instead focuses on economic headwinds.”
Meanwhile, China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 52.0 in October from 52.1, but beat expectations of 51.6. Factory output grew at its fastest pace in six months, although export-order growth slowed and business confidence fell to a nine-month low, presenting a mixed picture of conditions in Australia’s key trading partner.
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday as traders responded to encouraging diplomatic headlines from the Middle East. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain powers regarding negotiations, according to ISNA. Earlier, Axios reported that US President Donald Trump favoured giving diplomacy with Iran more time.
The US Dollar remains under pressure despite a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook as traders turn cautious before Tuesday’s US midterm elections. Lower Treasury yields also weigh on the Greenback, with the recent AI-led technology sell-off driving demand for government bonds. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.65, near one-week lows.
Traders now look to US economic data for clues on the Fed's next move after it held rates at 3.75%-4.00% last week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is due later on Monday, followed by JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday. Wednesday brings ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report rounds out the week.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.58% | -0.23% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.36% | 0.06% | -0.72% | |
| EUR | 0.58% | 0.36% | 0.73% | 0.66% | 0.94% | 0.66% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.36% | 0.40% | 0.31% | 0.58% | 0.30% | -0.46% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.73% | -0.40% | -0.05% | 0.21% | -0.07% | -0.86% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.66% | -0.31% | 0.05% | 0.28% | -0.02% | -0.77% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | -0.94% | -0.58% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.27% | -1.05% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.66% | -0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.27% | -0.76% | |
| CHF | 0.72% | 0.11% | 0.46% | 0.86% | 0.77% | 1.05% | 0.76% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold has found its footing as the tech sector selloff eases, although the recovery remains modest. The analysts suggest that the recent decline was driven more by liquidity pressures and de-leveraging than a fundamental shift in the longer-term bullish outlook. They point to declining leverage among systematic risk-parity funds, limited ETF outflows and Asian follow-up selling, and resilient speculative flows as supporting evidence.
De-leveraging selloff, flows resilient
"An easing of the tech rout has seen gold find its footing to start the week."
"While the recovery is still very modest, and risks remain high that some investors who entered later in the initial rally may have less conviction, there is hope for the bulls that the washout was more liquidity driven than a capitulation of the longer-term bull thesis."
"Our model's measure of systematic risk-parity fund leverage has also started to decline in recent days, further supporting the view that this selloff was more of a de-leveraging event as opposed to a fundamental shift."
"So far, Asian follow-up selling and ETF outflows appear to be only modest, while our higher-frequency gauge of speculative flow strength remains strong."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged surprised markets positioned for a hike. The central bank highlighted subdued domestic demand despite an anticipated rise in inflation to 4.4% in Q4, largely from fuel. New Zealand’s economy has only recently exited recession and remains unbalanced, with earlier 2026 strength offset by Iran war headwinds.
New Zealand Dollar reacts to RBNZ pause
"Last week’s decision by the RBNZ to leave rates unchanged blindsided a market that was priced for a hike. The action has led to some soul searching ahead of this week’s RBA decision."
"The RBNZ commented at its policy meeting, that while annual inflation is expected to increase to 4.4% in the December quarter (largely on the back of fuel), that domestic demand remains subdued."
"The performance of the New Zealand economy has been very different from that of Australia in recent years, with the former only emerging from recession in late 2024 to an unbalanced performance last year."
"Despite some strong green shoots for New Zealand in Q1 2026, this was ahead of the headwinds caused by the Iran war."
"That said, the shock of last week’s RBNZ policy decision has underpinned some concerns over the signals that RBA Governor Bullock may provide this week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Societe Generale's Anatoli Annenkov expects French fiscal uncertainty to sustain bond-market volatility beyond the 2027 elections. He explains why ECB intervention remains unlikely for now and how TPI and OMT could provide conditional support if fragmentation threatens monetary policy transmission.
ECB toolkit for fragmentation risks
"Bond markets are likely to remain focused on France until well beyond the 2027 elections, keeping volatility and contagion risks elevated until a clear and credible fiscal strategy emerges. This will require the ECB to stay alert to market developments that could impair monetary policy transmission. While the bar for intervening remains high, a sharp deterioration in market liquidity and functioning would quickly bring the ECB back into focus as the euro area’s first line of defence against fragmentation."
"Many client questions focus on what the ECB could and would do if sovereign bond markets start fragmenting more severely, with French and potentially other sovereign debt selling off in an unwarranted and disorderly manner, threatening the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Key to remember is that the ECB has no mandate to “save” countries. Rather, as functioning financial markets are essential for the ECB to deliver on its primary price stability mandate, it also has financial stability responsibilities."
"For now, neither the scale of repricing nor market dysfunction warrants ECB intervention, with the bar for unilateral action remaining high. There is no specific level of spreads or market dysfunction that would automatically trigger intervention. Italian spreads over Bunds exceeded 300bp in 2018 without ECB action."
"Only with the prospects of credible corrective action by the affected government, possibly including EU support, or in case of unwarranted spill-over effects on markets and other countries, would we see the case for the ECB to activate instruments such as the TPI, OMT (both never used) or even temporary broad-based asset purchases to address disorderly markets that threaten monetary policy transmission. Any such measures should be temporary, targeted and tailored, conditional on implementation of corrective fiscal measures and with a clear exit path."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
HSBC’s FX Viewpoint, dated 2 November 2026, reviews the latest FOMC decision and its implications for the Dollar. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75-4.00% but signalled that a December hike remains possible as US economic activity is described as strong and inflation elevated. HSBC maintains its strong USD view into 2027, while warning that the path may be volatile.
Fed hold sustains Dollar strength
"At its 27-28 October meeting, the FOMC voted 10 to 2 to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.75-4.00%, in line with expectations."
"The accompanying statement left the door open for a December hike."
"The USD is likely to face a bumpy road into year-end."
"We have maintained our strong USD view for several months, supported by US economic resilience, a hawkish Fed, and challenges facing other major currencies."
"That view remains intact as we head into 2027, although the path is unlikely to be smooth."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD bounces from lows near 1.1100 but is struggling to extend gains beyond 1.1200.
- Eurozone Manufacturing data was supportive, but concerns about France's debt remain weighing.
- The technical picture shows a corrective reaction, with the bullish momentum still fragile.
The Euro (EUR) holds a positive tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by positive Eurozone factory activity data and concerns about US elections. The EURUSD pair, however, is struggling to find acceptance above the 1.1200 level, which leaves price action in no man’s land between the nearly 18-month lows just above 1.1100 hit on Thursday and a cluster of resistance between 1.1255 and 1.1285.
Upward revisions to October’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index figures have provided a fresh boost to the Euro, which had already taken advantage of investors’ concerns about the outcome of the US midterm elections, which will take place on Tuesday.
EUR/USD, however, steadied later on, as markets put the delicate financial stability of some Eurozone members back into the equation. Fitch delivered an unscheduled ratings review on France, shifting its outlook on French sovereign debt from stable to negative and signalling another ratings review by the end of February.
"Let’s see whether this unscheduled move puts much pressure on the OAT-Bund spread today,” says Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, who also argues that " the news limits the potential for EUR/USD to rebound on softer energy prices.”
Technical Analysis: Immediate resistance is at the 1.1255 - 1.1285 area
EUR/USD trades around 1.1220, keeping the bearish near-term tone intact, yet with momentum indicators showing fading traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.5 has lifted out of oversold territory but remains below the midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, pointing to an easing bearish trend rather than reversing structure.
Bulls are likely to find significant resistance between the October 22 high at 1.1256 and the October 2 high at 1.1285. Further up, the next target is the area between June lows, at 1.1325, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1337
On the downside, below Friday's low, at 1.1104, bears are likely to be attracted by the May 2025 lows around 1.1050 ahead of the 1.1000 psychological area.
(This story was corrected on November 2 at 13:23 GMT to clarify that EUR/USD hit a nearly 18-month low on Thursday, not Friday.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.19% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.40% | 0.14% | -0.67% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | 0.31% | 0.69% | 0.51% | 0.88% | 0.64% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.31% | 0.40% | 0.21% | 0.57% | 0.33% | -0.46% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.69% | -0.40% | -0.18% | 0.18% | -0.07% | -0.89% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.51% | -0.21% | 0.18% | 0.37% | 0.11% | -0.67% | |
| AUD | -0.40% | -0.88% | -0.57% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -1.04% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | -0.64% | -0.33% | 0.07% | -0.11% | 0.24% | -0.79% | |
| CHF | 0.67% | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.89% | 0.67% | 1.04% | 0.79% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the US Dollar (USD) to stay broadly supported into 1H27, with EUR/USD potentially dipping below 1.10 as AI-related uncertainty and elevated energy prices sustain US growth and inflation premia. However, firmer Asian currency management and fading AI impulse later on underpin a U-shaped EUR/USD profile, with scope for Euro recovery in 2H27 as Fed hawkishness eases.
Dollar firm but not one-way
"These conflicting forces have kept the USD broadly range-bound. AI concerns are challenging the US growth premium, while higher energy prices reinforce inflation risks. At the same time, markets may increasingly question how far the Fed can tighten if AI-related stress leads to a material tightening in financial conditions."
"We still think it is too early to position for sustained USD weakness. AI remains broadly supportive of US growth and the USD, but it is no longer a one-way trade. USD upside should also be more contained, particularly as firmer currency management in China and potentially Japan helps anchor regional Asian currencies."
"We remain constructive on the USD against the EUR into 1H27 and see scope for EUR/USD to slip below 1.10. European tail risks remain unresolved. While Moody’s decision to retain France’s Aa3 rating provided some relief, the negative outlook and lingering fiscal risks should limit the scope for a sustained OAT rally ahead of the 2027 French presidential election."
"Beyond 1H27, we retain our U-shaped EUR/USD profile. As the US AI growth impulse peaks and fades, the hawkish Fed risks that have supported the USD should also ease, creating room for EURUSD to turn higher in 2H27."
"USD should stay supported into 1H27, with EUR/USD potentially slipping below 1.10. But AI uncertainty and firmer Asian FX management should cap USD gains, setting the stage for a EUR/USD recovery in 2H27."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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