Forex News
- Silver rallies toward weekly high as bullish momentum remains intact.
- Break above $82.12 exposes April peak at $83.05.
- Close below 100-day SMA risks pullback toward $77.19 support.
Silver price advances more than 2.50% on Friday, set to end the week with gains of over 7% sponsored by US Dollar weakness and falling oil prices. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $80.72, after bouncing off daily lows of $78.16.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Silver is testing the weekly high reached on May 7 at $82.12, but so far has failed to clear it. Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but they must clear key overhead resistance.
On the upside, the first key resistance is $80.50. Once cleared, the next areas of interest become the $81.00 figure, followed by the May 7 peak at $82.12. If those two areas are hurdled, the next stop would be the April 17 swing high at $83.05.
Downwards, the first support is the 100-day SMA at $80.01. A daily close below the latter, opens the door for a pullback towards the 50-day SMA at $77.19, ahead of the 20-day SMA at $76.44.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Wells Fargo Economics projects Brazil’s April IPCA inflation to rise 0.9% month-over-month and around 4.5% year-over-year, near or above the target band. Energy and food pressures are intensifying, while inflation expectations have risen. The Brazilian Central Bank is still seen cutting rates cautiously in June, but a pause in the easing cycle is becoming more likely.
Energy and food drive inflation risks
"We expect Brazil’s April IPCA to rise a sharp 0.9% month-over-month, pushing headline inflation to around or slightly above the top of the target band at 4.5% year-over-year."
"Energy remains the key near‑term upside risk, with the Middle East conflict lingering and physical supply constraints becoming more binding, driving stronger pass‑through into refined products."
"Food inflation was already firming in March, and higher transport and fertilizer costs should broaden price pressures across food categories in coming months."
"While core inflation remains restrained by restrictive real rates, administrative price smoothing and fiscal offsets, particularly in an election year, are adding upside risks to inflation expectations."
"Against this backdrop, we think the BCB is likely to proceed with a cautious cut at the June meeting, but the outlook beyond that has become increasingly uncertain, with a pause in the easing cycle looking more likely."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG economists Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee outline a base case where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by end‑May eases pressures on Asian currencies. They see Asia growth softening near term but stabilizing in H2 2026, with inflation contained and most central banks keeping neutral‑accommodative stances. They also sketch an adverse scenario with broad Asia FX depreciation.
Base and adverse scenarios for Asia FX
"A base case, where the Iran war and the Hormuz disruption unwind approaching end of May, is our core case. Asia growth softens slightly in near term but stabilizes into 2H2026 as declining energy prices ease the drag on current account, corporate margins and real income. Inflation will remain largely contained and allows most central banks to maintain their neutral-accommodative stance."
"Iran war has exerted significant pressure on Asia’s net energy‑importing currencies, with PHP, INR, THB and IDR depreciating most against the dollar since late February. However, in our base case, while reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated decline in oil prices would unwind some pressures, we expect a divergent performance across Asian currencies, rather than a unanimous rebound in remaining Q2."
"Under the Adverse Scenario transit the Strait of Hormuz, over time, higher energy costs would worsen the terms of trade, pressure on trade balance, and supply shortages would intensify and weigh on industrial activity and overall economy. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz brings the risks of recessions for Asian economies, causing capital outflow, creating pressure for significant pressure. In the Severe scenario, we expect a broad base depreciation among Asian currencies, with some like KRW to depreciate more than 8%, and INR and PHP to depreciate more than 5%, and a relatively mild 3% depreciation for CNY against the dollar."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
