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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Aug 01, 00:57 HKT
Two earnings shocks cancel inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • DJIA trades near 52,500 after a 600-point round trip off the 52,000 handle.
  • Apple down 10%, Amazon up 15%, both inside the index.
  • The 30-year yield holds 2007 highs into a payrolls week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades just beneath 52,500 on Friday, up around 230 points and roughly 1.6% under the record set early in July. That mild figure covers a session that ran close to 600 points, from a high in the 52,600 area down to a low fractionally beneath the 52,000 handle, before recovering more than 450 points inside two hours. No new information arrived between those two extremes.

Two earnings shocks, one index, almost no net

Apple (AAPL) trades around 10% lower after a fiscal third quarter in which revenue beat expectations on a 22% jump in iPhone sales, only for a shortfall in services to take the shares down anyway. Amazon (AMZN) trades over 15% higher on a second-quarter revenue beat carried by its cloud business, read as confirmation that the capital-spending cycle behind the technology trade is intact. Both names sit inside these thirty.

The index is price weighted, so a component contributes Dollars of share-price movement rather than percentage points of market value. Two names trading in a broadly similar price band, moving roughly the same distance in opposite directions, therefore subtract and add close to the same number of index points. The largest single-name earnings dispersion of the quarter nets out to a gain of less than half a percent.

The structure blamed all summer for this index lagging the technology trade is the same structure that neutralised the biggest earnings shock of the week. Five of the seven largest technology names now sit inside the average, Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) the absentees, so the gap between the benchmarks is weighting method and breadth rather than membership.

The long end declines to ratify it

The 30-year Treasury yield holds near its highest level since 2007 and extended again through Friday, while the 10-year sits above 4.7% and its own highest since January 2025. Both moves happened with equities bid. Two days after a fifth consecutive hold, decided nine to three with three regional presidents dissenting for a quarter-point increase, the long end is still selling.

The dissent is the tell, because a committee that will not move ahead of the data leaves the inflation risk sitting with whoever owns the bonds. The chair conceded this week that the central bank has no instant remedy for five years of above-target prices, and long-dated investors took the admission at face value and repriced thirty-year money accordingly.

A long bond at levels last seen before the financial crisis is a statement about the price of money over decades, not a verdict on next quarter's earnings. An equity index within a couple of percent of its record and a curve pricing tightening describe two different economies, and the war that keeps Crude Oil bid reconciles them in the bond market's favour.

Every American print landed on the hawkish side

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter, out at 12:30 GMT, rose 0.9% against a 0.8% consensus and matched the prior quarter. That is the cleanest quarterly read on labour costs the Federal Reserve gets, and it beat. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 13:45 GMT followed with 57.6 against 56, up from 56.7.

University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment then printed 55.2 against a 54 consensus at 14:00 GMT, with the expectations index at 55.4 against the same 54, and that beat is what carried the headlines. The inflation components did not move at all. One-year expectations held at 4.2% and the five-year at 3.3%, both in line and both unchanged on the month.

Sentiment improving while inflation expectations stay pinned is not the disinflation story it was reported as, and the tape worked that out. A regional Fed president who dissented for a quarter-point increase on Wednesday spoke into the same 14:00 GMT block, scoring hawkish well above the speaker's own running average, and the session low printed inside the following quarter hour.

A payrolls week follows

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey opens Monday at 14:00 GMT with a 54 consensus from 53.3, and its prices-paid component is seen easing to 70 from 73. The services survey lands Wednesday at 14:00 GMT at 54.2 from 54. Given where the long end is trading, the prices-paid readings matter more than either headline.

The private payrolls estimate arrives Wednesday at 12:15 GMT with a 75K consensus from 98K, and preliminary second-quarter productivity and unit labour costs follow on Thursday. Those two re-test from the output side the same wage question the Employment Cost Index raised on Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls land Friday 7 August at 12:30 GMT with a 91K consensus after June's 57K, the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2%, and average hourly earnings at 0.3% MoM and 3.5% YoY. There is no meeting in August, so two payroll reports arrive before the 16 September decision. A soft number does not buy relief here, because the front end is pricing the next move as an increase.

Levels and bias

Resistance: The session high in the 52,600 area is the first ceiling, and it is the same shelf that capped the tape through late July. Above it the record just over 53,300 is the only mark left on the chart.

Support: The 52,000 handle held on the flush and is now the line that matters, with 51,800 beneath it and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 51,600 rising into the price.

Bias: Bullish while the 52,000 handle holds. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 21 is oversold and turning up off Wednesday's flush, the 5-minute reading above 90 argues the immediate bounce is stretched, and a daily close beneath 52,000 invalidates and exposes the 50-day EMA.


Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones FAQs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

Aug 01, 00:11 HKT
WTI Oil recovers above $83 ahead of OPEC meeting
  • WTI Oil gains 0.76% on Friday, trading around $83.30 after rebounding from an intraday low below $80.00.
  • A partial recovery in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has eased some supply concerns, but ongoing Middle East tensions continue to support Oil prices.
  • Markets are now focused on this weekend's OPEC+ meeting, with production plans remaining closely tied to export conditions in the Gulf.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades higher on Friday, rising 0.76% to around $83.30 after staging a sharp rebound from an intraday low below $80.00. The Crude Oil has erased some of its weekly losses and is on track to finish the week close to its opening levels after the bearish gap seen at the start of the week.

Market sentiment has improved as investors reassess the impact of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to CommBank, Oil tanker traffic through the strategic waterway has recovered to around 30%-35% of its pre-conflict level. A broader normalization of flows could ease pressure on global supply, explaining part of the heightened volatility seen in recent days.

However, geopolitical risks continue to provide strong support for Oil prices. Ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States (US) remain a major source of uncertainty, while threats to energy infrastructure and key shipping routes continue to maintain a geopolitical risk premium in the market.

Fundamentals also remain supportive. The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected decline in US Crude Oil inventories, highlighting a still-tight market and relatively low stock levels.

Meanwhile, investors are awaiting this weekend's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting. Several analysts expect the group to approve a modest increase in September production targets, although they stress that the implementation of these supply increases will largely depend on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open and Gulf producers being able to fully restore export flows.

Middle East tensions and constrained flows keep Crude market tight

According to TD Securities, the “supply situation [is] remaining constrained in energy markets,” with flows via “Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Russia all remain materially constrained, with global seaborne exports again sitting near the lowest levels since the war began.” The bank argues that this “reduced flows and global tightening of the energy market” is “supportive of further upside in Crude Oil,” even as positioning remains mixed across the complex. TD notes that “CTAs are quiet in Crude today, but could turn modest buyers of Brent crude above $91.60/bbl,” adding that “CTAs could turn buyers of Brent Crude Oil, but are sellers of gasoline on the day,” with “CTAs…selling RBOB gasoline on the day.”

Commerzbank likewise stresses that “it remains clear that the regional escalation of the Middle East conflict puts additional pressure on the global oil market,” and warns that developments in the region are “likely to remain a key driver of commodity market sentiment and oil prices in the weeks ahead.” In its view, “given this situation and the absence of clear de-escalation signals, Oil prices are likely to remain elevated for the time being,” though it cautions that “recent weeks have demonstrated that even tentative progress in US-Iran relations can exert substantial downward pressure on prices.”

On the supply side, Commerzbank highlights fresh OPEC headlines, noting that “this Sunday, the seven core OPEC+ countries will meet and are expected to raise the production targets for September once again by around 188,000 barrels per day, before likely pausing further increases.” However, it underscores that “the implementation of previously announced production hikes ultimately depends on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open and Gulf producers being able to restore export flows.” At the same time, the bank points out that “this underlines the increasingly tight inventory situation in the US, which is likely to limit the scope for crude oil exports,” reinforcing the broader narrative of a tightening global market.

Aug 01, 00:05 HKT
Australian Dollar holds despite weak Chinese PMIs
  • AUD/USD trades near 0.7020 after retreating from fresh multi-week highs around 0.7045.
  • China's official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations, weighing on the China-sensitive Australian Dollar.
  • Dallas Fed President Logan reiterated that inflation remains above target.

AUD/USD trades around the 0.7020 area during Friday's American session. The pair remains under mild pressure as disappointing Chinese business activity data offsets stronger Australian inflation expectations, while renewed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provide fresh support for the US Dollar.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 previously, well below the 50.0 consensus and back into contraction territory. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI eased to 49.0 from 50.2, also missing expectations. The weaker readings reinforced concerns over slowing demand in Australia's largest trading partner, limiting demand for the Australian Dollar.

On the domestic front, Australia's Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated to 3.6% YoY in the second quarter from 3.0% previously, suggesting pipeline inflation pressure remains elevated. However, the stronger inflation reading was insufficient to offset the negative impact from China and the stronger US Dollar.

The Greenback also found support after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a notably hawkish tone. Logan said monetary policy is not restraining the economy, warned that inflation is not on track to return to the Fed's 2% target, and argued that risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside. She added that she would have preferred a 25-basis-point rate increase, noting that modest tightening now could reduce the need for more aggressive action later.

Chart Analysis AUD/USD


Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7025, holding a mild bullish bias as it pivots around horizontal support at this same level while remaining above the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered just under 0.7000. This positioning suggests buyers retain control in the near term, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 63 points to firm but not extreme upside momentum, indicating that any dips toward the underlying averages could attract renewed demand.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.7039, with a subsequent barrier at 0.7045, where a break would open the door to a more sustained advance. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 0.7025 pivot, followed by a horizontal floor at 0.6992, while the 20-period SMA around 0.6982 and the 100-period SMA near 0.6980 form a secondary demand zone that should limit deeper pullbacks if the broader constructive tone is to persist.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Aug 01, 00:00 HKT
British Pound holds firm as USD rebounds from intervention rout
  • GBP/USD holds near 1.3460 as Dollar recovers from intervention-led slide.
  • UoM sentiment improves while inflation expectations remain stubbornly elevated.
  • Fed dissenters defend hikes as BoE keeps tightening door open.

The Pound Sterling retreats some 0.02% on Friday as the Greenback stages a recovery following Thursday’s intervention day, which weakened the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a 30-day low. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3458, virtually unchanged.

GBP/USD steadies as improved US sentiment

The US Dollar is headed for one of its worst weeks since the first week of April 2026, poised to finish with losses of over 1.30%. Recently, US economic data revealed that Consumer Sentiment improved, according to the University of Michigan (UoM). The index improved from its preliminary reading of 54.4 to 55.2, while inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% for one year and 3.3% for five years.

Joanne Hsu, the Director of the Survey of Consumers, wrote, “Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.”

In the meantime, the recent economic data in the US showed that the economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the second quarter. Also, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, fell 0..1% in June. This, along with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's lack of forward guidance, trimmed the chances of a September rate hike, as markets expect just 23 basis points of tightening towards the end of the year.

In the meantime, the three Fed dissenters who voted for a rate hike expressed their views on their decisions. Dallas Fed Lorie Logan said the inflation risk is tilted upward and that she would’ve preferred a hike to better balance the risk outlook.

Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed said that the policy rate is not restrictive enough, and that inflation has been “too high for too long.” Finally, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said he preferred to raise rates by 25 basis points, as he favours a gradual approach to monetary policy rather than “bolder actions.”

In the UK, the BoE held rates unchanged, though it left the door open to monetary policy rate hikes due to uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict. Nevertheless, money markets still expect a 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of the year, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime Terminal

Worth noting that Sterling’s fate lies with the new PM Andy Burnham as investors remain concerned about the fiscal health of the economy.

GBP/USD price forecast: Technical outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
GBP/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3469, keeping a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the clustered simple moving average around 1.3365 and the former descending trend line, whose latest reacted close at 1.3375 now acts as underlying support. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 59, suggesting firm but not overextended upside momentum, while the broader uptrend support line, last touched near 1.3289, reinforces a pattern of higher daily lows.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the recent pivot area around 1.3469, with the former resistance trend line turned floor near 1.3375 and the nearby simple moving average at 1.3365 forming the next demand band, ahead of the rising trend-line base around 1.3289. With no notable resistance levels immediately overhead in this dataset, the pair would likely maintain its bullish tone as long as it defends the 1.3375–1.3365 region, while a break beneath the 1.3289 trend support would hint at a deeper corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.83% -1.57% -2.09% -1.16% -1.50% -3.31% -0.02%
EUR 0.83% -0.71% -1.30% -0.38% -0.63% -2.58% 0.82%
GBP 1.57% 0.71% -0.56% 0.36% 0.08% -1.87% 1.54%
JPY 2.09% 1.30% 0.56% 0.92% 0.56% -1.38% 2.10%
CAD 1.16% 0.38% -0.36% -0.92% -0.36% -2.25% 1.17%
AUD 1.50% 0.63% -0.08% -0.56% 0.36% -1.94% 1.50%
NZD 3.31% 2.58% 1.87% 1.38% 2.25% 1.94% 3.47%
CHF 0.02% -0.82% -1.54% -2.10% -1.17% -1.50% -3.47%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Jul 31, 23:44 HKT
Swiss Franc trims losses against US Dollar amid Japanese intervention concerns
  • USD/CHF gives up part of its early advance as the Greenback struggles to hold its recovery.
  • Suspected Japanese intervention and the possibility of US action keep the US Dollar under pressure.
  • Traders await Swiss inflation data due on Monday.

USD/CHF trims part of its earlier gains on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to regain momentum following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, which was driven by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY).

At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8086 after reaching an intraday high of 0.8128. USD/CHF is still up around 0.45% on the day but is heading for a weekly loss.

The Greenback initially attempted to recover from six-week lows before losing strength after Reuters reported that the US Treasury had informed several banks it may intervene in the Yen market on Friday and advised them to “stand ready for future action.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.07, easing from an intraday high of 100.45.

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that “the USD rally from May has run its course, with DXY poised to retreat into a 96.00-100.00 range.” They note that the earlier “tailwind to USD from resilient US economic activity” is now being overshadowed by concerns that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has “fail[ed] to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy,” thereby “increasing the risk the Fed falls behind the curve in containing inflation.”

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range for a fifth consecutive meeting, with three policymakers backing an immediate 25-basis-point (bps) hike.

One of the dissenters, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, said on Friday, “I would have preferred a quarter-point rate increase to better balance the outlook and risks.” She added that “modest Fed action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing sharper action later.”

Traders still see a meaningful chance that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in around a 65% probability of a hike in September.

On the Swiss side, traders await July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Monday. Annual inflation eased to 0.5% in June from 0.6% in May, remaining near the lower end of the SNB's price-stability range and reinforcing expectations that the central bank will keep its policy rate at 0%.

Swiss Franc Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Euro.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.17% -0.01% -0.18% 0.10% 0.04% 0.05% 0.44%
EUR -0.17% -0.19% -0.35% -0.07% -0.13% -0.13% 0.27%
GBP 0.00% 0.19% -0.19% 0.12% 0.05% 0.05% 0.46%
JPY 0.18% 0.35% 0.19% 0.32% 0.25% 0.26% 0.66%
CAD -0.10% 0.07% -0.12% -0.32% -0.06% -0.05% 0.34%
AUD -0.04% 0.13% -0.05% -0.25% 0.06% -0.00% 0.39%
NZD -0.05% 0.13% -0.05% -0.26% 0.05% 0.00% 0.40%
CHF -0.44% -0.27% -0.46% -0.66% -0.34% -0.39% -0.40%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Jul 31, 22:59 HKT
Bank of Canada: Strong GDP lowers cut risk – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that stronger-than-expected Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support a brighter growth outlook but do not materially change their Bank of Canada (BoC) view. They highlight that Q2 GDP is tracking above BoC projections, yet still expect policy rates to remain unchanged through 2026 before a gradual hiking cycle begins in early 2027.

BoC seen on extended 2026 hold

"The Canadian growth outlook looks a little brighter after industry-level GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in May (0.34% unrounded) for an upside surprise against expectations (TD & market) for a 0.2% increase and flash estimates for GDP to rise by 0.1%."

"This report leaves Q2 GDP tracking at 3.4%, above BoC projections, but we look for the Bank to stay patient before hiking rates in 2027."

"While this report bodes well for the near-term growth outlook, the Bank of Canada can remain patient going forward."

"The upside surprise on May GDP should give the Bank some added confidence that the economy is adjusting this environment of heightened uncertainty, but we continue to look for the Bank to stay on hold through 2026 as excess supply is slowly absorbed before hiking to 2.75% in early 2027."

"We continue to see the BoC staying on hold for 2026, and imagine it would feel quite comfortable with that decision after today's print."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 31, 22:46 HKT
Japanese Yen: Intervention slows but does not reverse trend – ING

ING’s Chris Turner describes USD/JPY’s rollercoaster, with a 3% drop on reported Japanese intervention followed by a near 2% rebound. He notes that coordinated Fed-Treasury involvement was key in January but now sees the story as having moved on. Turner expects more Japanese FX intervention, yet believes it can only slow, not reverse, the underlying USD/JPY bull trend without a clearer Fed shift.

Japanese action tempers but does not end the rally

"USD/JPY has been on a rollercoaster, falling 3% yesterday on Japanese intervention, only to bounce back near 2% overnight. The Nikkei reported that Japanese authorities did indeed intervene yesterday and that the Fed, as it did in January, also checked rates yesterday afternoon."

"Back in January, the Fed checking USD/JPY rates on behalf of the US Treasury was a big story which reflected the co-ordinated nature of intervention and the shared concern by the US and Japan over the weak yen."

"However, the story has moved on now, and we would need to see some own-account intervention from US authorities to give USD/JPY another leg lower."

"We could well see some more Japanese FX intervention today and early next week, since intervention typically comes in blocks of a few days."

"But until we get a clearer signal that the Fed is not going to hike in September and the broader dollar trend clearly turns lower, intervention can only slow rather than reverse the underlying USD/JPY bull trend."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 31, 19:48 HKT
Gold declines as firmer US Dollar, hawkish Fed outlook weigh
  • Gold retreats as the US Dollar regains ground following Thursday's sharp decline.
  • Elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East war keep inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations in focus.
  • Technical indicators suggest stabilization, with XAU/USD holding above $4,000 despite remaining below key moving averages.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following the previous day’s sharp sell-off, while hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations remain a key headwind for the non-yielding metal.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,040, down nearly 1.50% on the day after struggling to sustain gains above $4,100.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to a six-week low on Thursday amid suspected foreign exchange intervention by Tokyo to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). The DXY, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.28, up 0.30% on the day.

The Greenback attracts fresh bids as the war in the Middle East supports demand, while the resulting rise in energy prices heightens inflation concerns and reinforces expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the index remains on track to end July in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Gold looks set to snap a four-month losing streak as buyers continue to defend the psychological $4,000 level. However, the prospect of higher US interest rates is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting the metal’s upside.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, with three policymakers voting for an immediate rate hike. Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stopped short of offering clear forward guidance, he reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the three dissenters, said on Friday, “If inflation remains elevated, a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and concluding that bolder actions were necessary.”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently price in around a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

On the data front, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 55.2 in July from 54.4, while the Consumer Expectations Index improved to 55.4 from 54. Meanwhile, one-year and five-year consumer inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

In the near term, XAU/USD is expected to remain range-bound as traders assess developments in the Middle East and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook, while technical indicators point to signs of stabilization.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD recovery remains capped below the 21-day SMA

On the daily chart, XAU/USD shows signs of stabilization after repeatedly finding support around the psychological $4,000 mark, while holding beneath a cluster of key moving averages.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 45 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum rather than strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 28 suggests that the earlier downtrend is losing strength.

On the downside, the $4,000 level provides immediate support, with a sustained break below this area exposing the next cushion near $3,850. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,071.

A decisive move above this level could open the door towards the 50-day SMA at $4,185, while the 100-day SMA at $4,425 represents a stronger barrier.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected at 12:30 GMT to update the Gold price in the second paragraph. XAU/USD was trading around $4,053, not $4,0553.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Jul 31, 22:36 HKT
New Zealand Dollar weakens after China PMI miss as the US Dollar rebounds
  • NZD/USD falls on Friday after weaker-than-expected Chinese business activity data.
  • China's PMI contraction weighs on the New Zealand Dollar despite improving consumer confidence at home.
  • The US Dollar rebounds as markets continue to assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Friday, down 0.33% on the day, as investors react to another deterioration in Chinese business activity. China, New Zealand's largest trading partner, reported that the official NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 previously, missing the 50 market consensus. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49 from 50.2, pointing to a broader slowdown in economic activity.

The weak Chinese data overshadowed more encouraging developments in New Zealand. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose by eight points to 99.3 in July, its highest level since February. Expectations for the economy over the next one and five years also improved, suggesting a gradual recovery in household sentiment.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum as investors continue to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. Markets still see another rate hike as a possibility, supported by persistent inflation concerns. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign around a 65% chance to a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the September meeting.

The latest US economic data also reinforced that view. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised higher to 55.2 in July from the preliminary estimate of 54.4, while the Consumer Expectations Index was revised up to 55.4. One-year and five-year Consumer Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.

New Zealand Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.39% 0.28% -0.10% 0.26% 0.31% 0.28% 0.71%
EUR -0.39% -0.11% -0.49% -0.13% -0.09% -0.14% 0.32%
GBP -0.28% 0.11% -0.39% -0.01% 0.02% -0.03% 0.44%
JPY 0.10% 0.49% 0.39% 0.39% 0.43% 0.38% 0.84%
CAD -0.26% 0.13% 0.01% -0.39% 0.04% 0.00% 0.46%
AUD -0.31% 0.09% -0.02% -0.43% -0.04% -0.05% 0.40%
NZD -0.28% 0.14% 0.03% -0.38% -0.00% 0.05% 0.47%
CHF -0.71% -0.32% -0.44% -0.84% -0.46% -0.40% -0.47%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Jul 31, 22:35 HKT
Euro: Range seen around mid‑1.15s against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December. Their fair‑value estimate sits in the mid‑1.15s, with a near‑term 1.1450–1.1550 range.

Euro consolidates Fed‑driven gains

"The EUR is soft, down 0.2% vs. the USD with a drift toward 1.15 and a slight fade of this week’s rally. The preliminary euro area’s CPI release for July has offered little in terms of movement for spot, with headline coming in as expected at 2.9% y/y and core printing 2.5% y/y (vs. 2.4% exp.)."

"The French CPI data, released earlier, offered a modest lift to the EUR as the figures came in well above expectations. However the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold. Comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so."

"Rate expectations are showing signs of stabilization following their recent pullback and the market is currently pricing about 22bpts of tightening for September with a cumulative 42bpts of tightening by December. 2Y spreads (Germany-US) remain well supported and our narrow FV estimate is in the mid-1.15s."

"Bullish – the RSI remains bullish in the upper 50s and has seen an impressive reversal from the oversold (sub-30) bullish levels reached in late June. The 50 day MA (1.1482) has been broken and the daily chart offers little in terms of resistance ahead of 1.16. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1450 and resistance at 1.1550. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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