Forex News
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that enhanced Federal Reserve communication has lowered average implied volatility in the US Dollar but concentrated it on FOMC meeting days. Drawing on 30 years of data across Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell, he links longer statements and dot plots to stronger FX reactions, and warns that shorter statements could redistribute volatility across the rest of the year.
Fed guidance reshapes Dollar volatility profile
"This relationship has continued under both Yellen and Powell: the longer the statement, the more pronounced the foreign exchange market's reaction appears to be. 100 additional words result on average in a 0.14% increase in volatility on the day of the FOMC decision compared with the ten trading days prior, although there is significant variation in this relationship from year to year."
"Average volatility has fallen. Fed meetings have simply become more important for the foreign exchange markets than they were under Greenspan. This is most clearly evident from the fact that, under Greenspan, meeting days were essentially as volatile as any other trading day of the year."
"With the introduction of the dot plots in particular, it is clear that volatility is now much more concentrated on meeting days. The Fed’s improved communication has therefore reduced average implied volatility. Meeting days themselves have become significantly more volatile, while the rest of the time is simply less exciting."
"If Kevin Warsh is seeking a return to the shorter statements of earlier times, the Greenspan era suggests that meetings will be less exciting for market participants. In return, however, the remaining days of the year will become significantly more volatile. In other words, whilst the overall average volatility may have been declining for several years, it is not the level that has changed, but the distribution."
"Warsh therefore may not get what he is hoping for: volatility will not disappear, but simply become more evenly distributed across the trading days of the year. While this could be advantageous for short-term positioning around the FOMC meeting, it could also increase the need for hedging on the remaining trading days of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that USD/JPY remains in a range near recent highs, with intraday trading expected between 161.40 and 161.90 after a 161.46–161.83 session. They keep a positive 1–3 week outlook, looking for a move toward the 2024 high at 162.00 while 161.10 is flagged as strong support for the uptrend.
Range trade within broader uptrend
"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 161.60 yesterday, we highlighted the following: “The price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, USD could trade between 161.20 and 161.80.” USD subsequently traded between 161.46 and 161.83. The price action provides no fresh clues, and today, we expect USD to trade between 161.40 and 161.90."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a positive USD view since last Thursday. In our most recent narrative from Friday (19 Jun, spot at 161.25), we indicated that USD “could rise to the 2024 high of 162.00.” We will continue to hold this view as long as 161.10 (‘strong support’ level previously at 160.90) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee trades higher against the US Dollar as oil prices fall further.
- RBI Governor Malhotra pushes back fears of interest rate hikes.
- The US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the US PCE Inflation data for May.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades firmly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair declines to near 94.30 as the Indian currency strengthens due to a further decline in oil prices.
The WTI Oil price has returned close to the pre-Middle East war levels as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, has started normalizing, following the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signing and an improvement in technical talks towards the nuclear deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 0.75% lower to near $69.25. The MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on July 20 is down 1.6% to near 6,563.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, appreciate when oil prices fall significantly.
One Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate-setting member has stated that the Indian economy could outpace the central bank's growth rate forecast of 6.6% and rise by 7% if oil prices continue to remain lower near $70.00, Bloomberg reported.
Slightly lower US Dollar also acts as drag on USD/INR
In the Asian session, the US Dollar demonstrates a subdued performance while investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower around 101.52, but is still close to its over-a-year high at 101.80 posted on Wednesday.
Investors will pay close attention to the US PCE inflation data as it is expected to influence market expectations toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The US core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to arrive higher at 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.3% in April.
Signs of price pressures accelerating would further boost hawkish Fed prospects. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates this year are almost 82%. While the possibility of at least two interest rate hikes is 42.2%.
FIIs continue to pare stake in Indian stock market
The lack of interest by overseas investors towards the Indian stock market remains intact despite oil prices having returned close to pre-war levels and the Reserve Bank of India pushing back fears of interest rate hikes in the near term.
On Wednesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded their stake worth Rs. 1,843.40 crore in the Indian stock market. The same day, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, while speaking to ET Now, that it is “premature” to consider interest rate hikes, citing that the central bank doesn’t see signs of energy crisis-led inflation generalizing. "If we wanted to prepare the market for rate hikes, we would have changed stance from neutral to restrictive,” Malhotra added.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains below 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades lower at around 94.25, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds decisively under the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.86.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 41 suggests lingering downside pressure but without reaching oversold extremes, hinting that sellers still have the upper hand while leaving room for further extension before exhaustion signals emerge.
On the topside, initial resistance is provided by the 20-day EMA at 94.86, with the downward border of the Descending Triangle formation near 95.23 acting as the next cap, ahead of a more distant barrier around 97.0541 from the trend-line’s origin. Looking down, the pair would be exposed to the April 15 high at 93.67 if it extends its decline below the May 7 low at 94.03.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- WTI faces downward pressure as expectations grow for a surge in Middle Eastern oil supply.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted a return to normal operational flows, with 20 million oil barrels exiting the Strait.
- An Iraqi official stated Iraq must consider all options if its OPEC production quota is not significantly increased.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price loses ground for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $69.20 per barrel during European hours on Thursday. Crude oil prices are facing strong headwinds as market expectations point to a significant surge in supply from the Middle East.
Speaking at the Reuters Global Energy Forum in New York, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighted this shift by noting that roughly 20 million barrels of oil recently exited the Strait within a single 24-hour window, characterizing the heavy shipments as a return to normal operational flows. Shipping data closely tracks this recovery, showing that an interim deal on Wednesday cleared the way for three previously stranded tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude to finally exit the Gulf. Market supply is expected to expand even further due to a temporary US waiver that allows buyers to purchase already-loaded Iranian oil.
Compounding these supply pressures are growing geopolitical tensions and structural friction within OPEC itself. A senior Iraqi oil ministry official stated that Iraq will have to consider all options if its production quota is not significantly increased. The looming prospect of Iraq considering an exit from the cartel introduces further stability concerns, especially following the high-profile, surprise departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from OPEC earlier this year.
This combination of rising Middle Eastern output and Iran’s boost in sales from the temporary reprieve on US sanctions has already driven down the prices of physical crude oil cargoes globally. However, the long-term outlook remains debated among analysts. Goldman Sachs recently noted that it does not expect a massive, sustained pick-up in Iranian production, even if the US sanctions relief manages to extend beyond its scheduled August 21 expiry date, per Reuters.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY in May.
- Headline annual PCE inflation is expected to rise to its highest level in three years at 4%.
- Markets see about a 70% chance of the Federal Reserve raising the policy rate at least once by September.
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
The PCE Price Index is closely watched by market participants because it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation and could influence its policy outlook.
Anticipating the PCE: Insights into the Federal Reserve's key inflation metric
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to advance 0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in May, following the 0.2% increase recorded in April.
In the 12 months to May, the core PCE inflation is set to edge higher to 3.4%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is forecast to reach its highest level since May 2023 at 4%.
Markets will scrutinize the PCE Price Index data as Fed officials take this inflation gauge into account when deciding on the next policy move. Although crude Oil prices declined sharply and almost returned to pre-war levels since the United States (US) and Iran reached a framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, markets remain convinced that the Fed will need to tighten its policy in the second half of the year, given the healthy labor market conditions and the uncertainty regarding how quickly the disinflation process could restart.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 65% probability that the Fed will raise borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points (bps) by September.
The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), published alongside the monetary policy statement after the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, showed that policymakers forecast PCE inflation to stand at 3.6% by year-end, and see the core PCE inflation at 3.3%.
Previewing the PCE inflation report, a TD Securities analyst said:
“We expect core PCE prices to show strong services inflation in May despite weak goods prices, as tariff passthrough has largely dissipated. Headline PCE will be higher at 0.49% m/m due to energy prices. Our forecast assumes 0.55% m/m for supercore after a strong PPI for the month. We look for personal spending to grow 0.5%, which reflects a moderation in real terms to 0.0%.”
Economic Indicator
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jun 25, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4%
Previous: 3.8%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
How will the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index affect EUR/USD?
The US Dollar (USD) Index, which gauges the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, is up more than 2.5% in June and has recently reached its highest level in over a year, above 101.50. Hawkish revisions seen in the Fed’s SEP, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s cautious and ambiguous comments on the policy outlook, combined with surprisingly upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US, fuelled expectations for a Fed rate hike and drove the USD’s latest leg higher.
For markets to shift their view on the Fed policy outlook in a significant way, a softer-than-PCE inflation reading might not be enough. Still, a negative surprise in the monthly core PCE print could limit the USD’s gains and help EUR/USD hold its ground in the immediate term, but such a market reaction is likely to be short-lived. Conversely, a figure of 0.4% or bigger could fuel September Fed rate hike bets and cause EUR/USD to stretch its downtrend.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The near-term technical outlook for EUR/USD reaffirms the bearish stance but highlights oversold conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 30 and the pair trades slightly below the lower arm of the Bollinger Bands. This setup suggests that there could be a technical correction before there is an extended slide.”
“On the downside, 1.1300 (static level, round level) aligns as the first support level before 1.1220 (static level) and 1.1150 (static level). In case the pair stages a correction, 1.1410/1.1400 (former support level, round level) could be seen as the immediate resistance area ahead of 1.1540 (Bollinger Bands mid-point) and 1.1660-1.1670 (upper arm of the Bollinger Bands, 200-day Simple Moving Average SMA, 100-day SMA).”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Danske Research Team notes that Brent crude has dropped back toward USD 72 and near pre-war levels, with Oil pressured by a stronger US Dollar and growth concerns rather than supply alone. They argue that a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and improving supply outlook have created a bearish backdrop, and sees scope for further Oil price declines as global supplies normalise.
Brent slide driven by USD and supply
"In commodities, Brent crude plummeted yesterday, trading around USD72/bbl. this morning and close to the pre-war levels."
"While much attention in the oil market remains on the supply situation, we think the stronger USD and associated growth worries are behind the drop."
"The hawkish turn by the Fed and rosier supply outlook have created a bearish environment for oil."
"While the USD rally has come a long way, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low."
"Hence, oil prices could potentially fall further as global supplies normalise."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/CHF retraces to near 0.8110 from its 10-month high of 0.8140.
- The Fed is highly anticipated to deliver at least one interest rate hike this year.
- SNB’s Tschudin still sees the need for the central bank’s intervention.
The USD/CHF pair trades 0.16% lower at around 0.8110 during the European trading session on Thursday after correcting from its 10-month high of 0.8140 posted the previous day. The broader outlook of the Swiss Franc pair remains firm due to continued outperformance by the US Dollar (USD).
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% lower to near 101.46, but is still close to its one-year high of 101.80 posted on Wednesday.
Traders see an 82% chance that the Fed will deliver at least one interest rate hike this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
In the Swiss region, Swiss National Bank (ECB) officials still see the need for further Swiss Franc’s depreciation despite falling almost 4% against the US Dollar so far this month. SNB policymaker Petra Tschudin said on Wednesday that medium-term inflation pressures are unchanged and the central bank is ready to intervene in the FX market, if necessary.
USD/CHF technical analysis
USD/CHF trades lower at around 0.8110; however, the pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8000.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the overbought band near 69, suggesting strong but stretched upside momentum that could encourage consolidation after the latest spike.
On the topside, the one-year high at 0.8174 is the first meaningful resistance level, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the door for further upside towards 0.8200. Looking down, the 20-day EMA around 0.8000 is the key support level; a downside break below that level would lead to further downside towards the June 17 low at 0.7910.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Societe Generale analysts note that Gold has broken below its 200-day moving average and the March trough, triggering an accelerated decline. Prices are drifting toward last October’s $3,930–3,885 support zone, with a potential rebound hinging on holding this area. The March low near $4,100 is flagged as first resistance, with failure there risking a persistent downtrend.
Break of 200‑DMA fuels downside pressure
"Gold gave up the 200-DMA in June and gradually breached the trough of March resulting in an accelerated decline. It is drifting towards the trough of last October around $3,930/3,885, which could be a potential support."
"The down move appears a bit stretched; however, it will be important to observe whether Gold can hold above this zone and attempt a durable rebound. First hurdle could be located at the March low of $4,100."
"An inability to cross this resistance may lead to persistence in downtrend."
"The slump in Gold below $4,000/oz signals capitulation in crowded debasement FX trade."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that USD/CAD has surged from below 1.36 to above 1.42 as falling Oil prices and rising Fed hike expectations pressured the Canadian Dollar (CAD). He argues both drivers are overstated, sees no need for actual Fed hikes, and views current USD/CAD levels as exaggerated, implying limited further upside unless significantly negative CAD-specific developments emerge.
Oil and Fed expectations overdone for Loonie
"As recently as the end of April, the outlook was positive for those anticipating a stronger Canadian dollar: thanks to Canadian oil exports and rising oil prices, the CAD emerged as a winner from the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with USD/CAD dropping below 1.36."
"Since peaking in the second half of April, however, the oil price has been falling steadily, and this morning it came close to the pre-war level. The slump in oil prices has put significant pressure on the Canadian dollar."
"By now, only a residual probability of such a move is priced in. But the market is currently pricing in as many as 40 basis points of Fed rate rises by March next year. The upward movement in USD/CAD since early May has thus been almost entirely driven by the shift in interest rate expectations."
"We strongly believe that both of these factors are exaggerated. The oil market appears to be reacting somewhat too euphorically to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It will likely be some time before the world’s depleted stockpiles are replenished and energy trading returns to normal."
"The high USD/CAD levels therefore seem exaggerated to us. This is not to say that there are no reasons for a weaker CAD, such as upcoming USMCA negotiations and a weakening real economy. But given current levels, a great deal would have to happen for USD/CAD to rise further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
According to a senior oil ministry official, Iraq will be compelled to consider all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased, Reuters reports.
Additional remarks
Iraq is enduring a critical financial crisis triggered by the sharp decline in oil exports due to the Iran war, its OPEC quota increase should be treated with utmost seriousness.
Iraq officials have considered idea of leaving OPEC, although current plan is to remain member and gain higher quota.
Market Reaction
The WTI Oil price appears to be extending its decline, following comments from Iraq pointing to raise the global oil supply. During press time, the WTI Oil price trades 1.12% lower to near $69.00.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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