Forex News
Francesco Pesole at ING sees some downside risks for the Norwegian Krone from Norges Bank’s meeting, as benign CPI‑ATE prints could tilt communication slightly less hawkish. He still expects rates to stay at 4.25% today and another hike later this year, but is less convinced about multiple moves. Despite limited upside for front‑end NOK rates, ING keeps a bullish NOK stance with a 10.75 EUR/NOK year‑end target.
Norges Bank tone versus NOK fundamentals
"This morning’s Norges Bank meeting carries some downside risks for NOK. In this article, we discuss why we think policymakers will keep rates at 4.25% (in line with expectations), but still expect them to hike rates again later this year."
"However, we cannot ignore the two benign 2.7% CPI-ATE prints in June and July and how they might tilt the balance to a slightly less hawkish tone. We see little upside room for front-end NOK rates anyway at this stage."
"Markets are pricing in 27bp of tightening by year-end, broadly in line with our base case, but we have become less convinced about another hike and even less convinced about the prospect of more than one."
"That is not a major concern for our bullish NOK views, however. Fundamentals and an attractive carry regardless of another hike, and we remain bullish on the krone with a 10.75 target versus EUR at the end of December."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY hovers near 160.00, pressured by wide interest rate gaps and high import costs.
- Escalating US-Iran conflict and potential oil blockades lend safe-haven support to the US Dollar.
- Soft July US CPI data reduced market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
USD/JPY inches lower after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 159.40 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency pair hovers near the crucial 160.00 level, keeping traders on high alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities. Despite intervention caution, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under fundamental pressure due to wide interest rate differentials, fiscal worries, and rising import costs.
Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the recent move in USD/JPY has effectively unwound much of the post-intervention strength in the Japanese currency, noting that "the yen has now given back a significant part of the gains following the coordinated US-Japan intervention earlier this month." This reversal leaves markets reassessing the durability of the earlier support for the Yen as investors focus on the evolving Bank of Japan rate outlook and the potential for renewed policy action.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gains support from escalating US-Iran tensions. Stalled diplomacy and aggressive US moves, such as threats of broader sanctions and a potential naval blockade on Iranian oil exports, have heightened geopolitical risks, reinforced by President Donald Trump's claim of "total control" over the strategic waterway.
However, the Greenback’s upside could be capped by shifting Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations following softer inflation metrics. July’s headline CPI dropped slightly to 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI cooled to 2.5%, matching market forecasts. This cooling inflation has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative Fed stance, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a September rate hike falling to roughly 36% from 48% a day earlier.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports Russia’s June merchandise trade surplus rose to USD 12.5bn, up over 50% year-on-year, as higher Oil prices and improved Urals pricing supported exports. IMF trade data confirm a jump in exports and surplus by April, but he cautions the improvement is not trend-altering and may fade as export prices ease. With USD/RUB only weakly tied to fundamentals, he expects continued Ruble depreciation over the coming year.
Oil-driven trade gains lack durability
"Russia’s June merchandise trade data show that the rise in the oil price and better Urals price realisation since March began to have a positive effect on the trade balance since around April. According to the latest official data, the merchandise trade surplus reached USD 12.5bn in June (up by 52.3%y/y)."
"We still choose to showcase the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics for trends in Russian trade (as opposed to local Russian statistics, whose reliability became questionable – partly because of stated official policy – since the Ukraine war began). The IMF data are delayed, which means that the latest available data are for April rather than June. Still, one can observe the effect already by April."
"The up to date official data suggest that the trade balance has not improved much further since then and may, in fact, begin to fade in July as the oil export price begins to average lower. Crucially, our chart shows that the trade balance improved to a multi-year high, but did not really increase to a level beyond what Russia had enjoyed in preceding years."
"In this sense, the development is not “trend altering” although better Urals pricing did help the Russian economy. The USD/RUB “technical fix” began to drift up around the same time because the geo-political environment deteriorated, while the exchange rate has only a weak link to underlying trade fundamentals. We expect the ruble to keep depreciating over the coming year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- DXY gains positive traction for the fourth straight day and seems poised to appreciate further.
- Oil-driven inflation fears fuel Fed hike bets and underpin the USD amid the US-Iran standoff.
- A move above a short-term trading range barrier is needed to reinforce the bullish outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is seen building on the previous day's sold bounce from the post-CPI swing low and prolonging its weekly uptrend for the fourth straight day. The momentum lifts the Index to a two-week high during the early part of the European session on Thursday, with bulls still awaiting a sustained move beyond the 100.00 psychological mark before positioning for further gains.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Wednesday, came in line with market expectations, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to hold interest rates steady. Traders, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices and are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. Apart from this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
From a technical perspective, this week's move beyond the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August decline were seen as key triggers for DXY bulls. Adding to this, supportive momentum indicators back the case for a further near-term appreciating move. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.50 leans bullish without overbought signals, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly positive, hinting that buyers retain control.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for a breakout through the top boundary of a short-term trading range held since the beginning of this month before positioning for any further gains. The DXY might then climb to the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 100.26, en route to the 50.0% retracement at 100.51 and the denser barrier around the 61.8% level at 100.77. A sustained break above these would open the way toward the 78.6% retracement at 101.14 and the recent cycle high around 101.61.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 99.94, with the 50-period SMA at 99.83 reinforcing that floor. A deeper pullback would expose the structural low around 99.42.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
DXY 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.03% | 1.02% | 0.03% | 0.22% | 1.05% | 0.70% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | -0.24% | 0.73% | -0.33% | -0.11% | 0.69% | 0.35% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.24% | 0.92% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 0.93% | 0.56% | |
| JPY | -1.02% | -0.73% | -0.92% | -0.67% | -0.46% | 0.20% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.67% | 0.22% | 0.88% | 0.72% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | 0.11% | -0.13% | 0.46% | -0.22% | 0.80% | 0.42% | |
| NZD | -1.05% | -0.69% | -0.93% | -0.20% | -0.88% | -0.80% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | -0.70% | -0.35% | -0.56% | 0.11% | -0.72% | -0.42% | 0.37% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Oil price rises to near $82.10 as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption remain intact.
- Both the US and Iran claim to control the Hormuz Strait.
- OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 to 580,000 bpd.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 0.5% higher at around $82.10 during the European trading session on Thursday. The oil price reflects strength as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption continue to act as a key tailwind for oil prices.
With the United States (US) and Iran both claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-fifth of global energy supply, the traffic through the chokepoint remains low.
According to data from Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was recorded to just six vessels on August 10, down from a recent 10-day average of about 11. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily, Reuters reports.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the US has "total control" over the Hormuz, describing the American naval presence as a "wall of steel".
Meanwhile, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for the current year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the prior estimate of 780,000 bpd.
WTI Technical Analysis
The WTI US Oil trades at $82.10, holding a constructive near‑term bias as it trades above the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.07. The oil price has extended the recovery above the 20-day EMA, which started after completing the 61.8% retracement of the swing from the July 2 low at $67.09 to the July 23 high at $92.25.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.55 sits slightly above neutral, hinting at steady rather than aggressive bullish momentum while price approaches overhead Fibonacci levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.54, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $86.11, where further gains could start to face profit‑taking. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20‑day EMA at $80.07, with stronger structural demand clustered around the 50.0% retracement at $79.65; a break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $76.75 and $72.64, while the $67.40 low remains a major bearish target only if the current bullish structure fails decisively.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that the July Fed meeting marked a peak in Dollar dehedging rather than an end to U.S. exceptionalism. Cross-border investors are rebuilding USD hedges, reducing effective unhedged U.S. exposure while maintaining broadly solid underlying demand for U.S. assets. Dollar selling is concentrated against GBP, EUR and CAD, while JPY and CNY remain notable exceptions.
Fed decision shifts Dollar hedging
"The July Fed appears to have marked a dollar dehedging peak rather than an end to U.S. exceptionalism. Cross-border investors are adding USD hedges again, with net U.S. asset exposure falling sharply after the July 29 decision. Dollar selling is concentrated in GBP, EUR and CAD, while JPY and CNY remain notable exceptions."
"Our USD “net hedge” indicator moved from an excess hedge position of close to 15% to around half its trailing 12-month level by the July 29 Fed meeting. The speed of that shift highlights how strongly investors had re-engaged with the dollar."
"Our data indicate that between July 29 and August 5, net U.S. asset exposure fell from 0.47 to 0.34, a significant drop in the “U.S. exceptionalism” view. However, the long-term average for net U.S. exposure is close to flat – changes in USD hedges tend to track asset values. So overall U.S. exceptionalism remains solid."
"Stripping out month-end effects, the data show that the Fed outlook remains material for hedging levels. The Fed will therefore need to remain sensitive to such FX effects, especially if the dollar is increasingly viewed as an inflation pass-through channel."
"Express concerns around the Fed through higher USD hedge ratios, rather than outright reductions in U.S. asset exposure."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 13:
The action in financial markets remains relatively subdued early Thursday, with major currency pairs fluctuating within their narrow weekly ranges. In the second half of the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.27% | 0.03% | 1.04% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 1.06% | 0.72% | |
| EUR | -0.27% | -0.26% | 0.72% | -0.36% | -0.13% | 0.68% | 0.35% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.26% | 0.92% | -0.10% | 0.13% | 0.95% | 0.60% | |
| JPY | -1.04% | -0.72% | -0.92% | -0.69% | -0.47% | 0.21% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.69% | 0.22% | 0.91% | 0.76% | |
| AUD | -0.21% | 0.13% | -0.13% | 0.47% | -0.22% | 0.82% | 0.45% | |
| NZD | -1.06% | -0.68% | -0.95% | -0.21% | -0.91% | -0.82% | -0.35% | |
| CHF | -0.72% | -0.35% | -0.60% | 0.08% | -0.76% | -0.45% | 0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Wednesday, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% following the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% and 2.5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. All of these figures came in line with analysts' estimates and failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
The US Dollar (USD) Index registered small losses on Wednesday before entering a consolidation phase at around 100.00 early Thursday. In the meantime, US stock index futures trade virtually unchanged on the day following the mixed action seen in Wall Street midweek.
US Dollar reaction muted as CPI cools hike odds but leaves structural worries intact
Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that, “for the most part, markets focused on the benign headline of the CPI print,” with the probability of a September Fed hike slipping as a result. They highlight that “pricing of a September Fed hike fell from 48% to 40%, the lowest it has been since the June Fed meeting shifted the market perspective on hikes.” Even so, Deutsche Bank stresses that “our US economists maintain their call for a Fed rate hike in September, though the CPI print together with last Friday’s mixed jobs report reduce the urgency for imminent action.” In their view, “the CPI report eased concerns about the next Fed move without doing much to resolve the longer-term concerns around deficits, supply, and term premium,” leaving underlying structural issues firmly in place despite the softer near-term policy risk.
The UK's Office for National Statistics reported earlier in the day that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. This print followed the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter and came in slightly better than the market expectation for an expansion of 1.1%. On a negative note, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production in the UK contracted by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, on a monthly basis in July. GBP/USD edges slightly lower following these mixed data releases and was last seen trading at 1.3485, losing about 0.1% on the day.
Following Monday's upsurge, USD/JPY lost its bullish momentum and closed virtually on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pair extends its sideways grind early Thursday and trades in a tight channel below 159.50.
Gold regained its traction and held slightly above $4,400 at the end of the day on Wednesday. The precious metal corrects lower in the European morning on Thursday and trades at around $4,370.
Crude Oil prices remain flat early Thursday as the uncertainty in the Middle East persists, with the US and Iran offering conflicting claims regarding the activity in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of press, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was virtually unchanged on the data $81.50.
Oil gains seen keeping December Fed hike on the table
According to TD Securities, “we continue to see crude oil moving higher,” a trend they argue “should keep the possibility of a December rate hike alive.” The bank notes that “this means that inflation, at least on the headline, will move higher later,” which in turn “could get the market to reprice Fed hikes and gold this year.”
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD briefly traded above 1.3535 to 1.3540 before slipping back to close at 1.3496. Intraday, the pair is seen range-trading between 1.3475 and 1.3525. Over 1–3 weeks, they maintain a mildly constructive view, with scope to test 1.3555 but limited prospects for sustained gains beyond that level.
Pound-Dollar holds in tight consolidation band
"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that “there is a chance for GBP to edge higher,” we pointed out that “any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range.” During the early NY session, GBP rose briefly above 1.3535, printing a high of 1.3540 before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. GBP closed little changed at 1.3496 (-0.09%). The current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.3475 and 1.3525."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” Yesterday, GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 before pulling back to close at 1.3496 (-0.09%). Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a breach of 1.3460 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that GBP has entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/IDR rises as escalating US-Iran tensions help the US Dollar recover its daily losses.
- President Trump claimed "total control" over the strategic waterway amid stalled diplomacy and heightened US-Iran rhetoric.
- Indonesia pledged to cap its 2026 deficit under 3% of GDP, backed by a 23%+ surge in tax revenues.
USD/IDR gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 17,920 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its daily losses amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. A senior Iranian official noted that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over a permanent end to conflicts in the Gulf, reporting zero progress in reviving the interim deal or establishing an implementation timeline.
President Donald Trump stated that the US has "total control" over the strategic waterway amid heightened rhetoric between Washington and Tehran, while diplomatic talks remain stalled. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pushing to ramp up economic pressure on Iran as military actions have yet to bring the regime to compliance. Planned measures include broadening economic sanctions and implementing a naval blockade to restrict Iranian oil exports.
Indonesia maintained strong fiscal discipline by committing to keep its 2026 deficit under 3% of GDP, backed by a 23%+ year-over-year surge in tax revenue from January to July. Looking ahead, the government is expected to unveil a consumption-focused 2027 budget proposal this Friday.
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia leadership is in transition as President Prabowo nominated Aida Budiman for Senior Deputy Governor and put forward Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate to succeed Governor Perry Warjiyo.
Rupiah could rebound as markets welcome BI leadership continuity
Analysts at OCBC highlighted that the Indonesian Rupiah has “strengthened to near a 2-month high” earlier this week following the nomination of Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate to lead Bank Indonesia. They note that markets “appear to have taken comfort from Destry’s extensive experience at BI and expectations for policy continuity, including her emphasis on currency stability.” In their view, the nomination “removes an important source of near-term uncertainty following Perry Warjiyo’s departure,” reinforcing investor confidence in the policy and currency stability framework.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes Gold extended gains after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, reinforcing a dovish narrative around Fed Chair Warsh. With prices near $4,434/oz and resistance just below $4,500/oz, Melek sees Gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, he argues it is still premature to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.
Fed path keeps gold contained
"With upside momentum driving prices to $4,434/oz and CTA buy triggers sitting near $4,468/ oz, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance just below $4,500/oz."
"A decisive move above that level would likely require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year."
"As a result, gold will likely remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July, though it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz."
"Until then, if it happens at all, the gold market should stay in the upper bound of the recent higher trading range."
"If no new inflation pressures materialize, gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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