Forex News
- Gold meets with a fresh supply as USD retains its bullish bias amid geopolitical uncertainties.
- Elevated US bond yields counter receding October Fed hike bets while weighing on the bullion.
- Investors now look to FOMC Minutes, due on Wednesday, for more cues about the policy path.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's consolidative price move and drops to a two-month low during the Asian session on Tuesday, with bears now awaiting a break below the $4,100 mark before positioning for further losses. Despite receding October Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, the US Dollar (USD) retains its bullish tone and continues to undermine demand for the commodity.
The US macro data released last week pointed to moderating inflation and a slight cooling in the labor market. Moreover, crude oil prices hang near a four-week low as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, significantly easing pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year.
Fed hike expectations hold as markets digest softer payrolls
Economists at Deutsche Bank argue that the softer headline payrolls print has not fundamentally altered the broader labour-market story. They note that “although the headline payroll number was disappointing, the wider labour-market picture remains relatively resilient, particularly alongside recent ADP and jobless-claims readings,” and on that basis their team “continue to expect two further 25bp Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters.” In terms of market pricing, Deutsche Bank highlight that “the market is pricing in another 86bps over the next 12 months, down from 100bps early last week but up from 70bps just after the payroll release,” underscoring how rate expectations have moderated but remain firmly skewed toward additional tightening.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and elevated US bond yields keep the USD close to its highest level since April 2025, set on Monday, which continues to exert pressure on the Gold price. In the latest developments, the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen said that it carried out three military operations using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones against airports, an oil facility, and military sites across Saudi Arabia. Separately, the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said it had destroyed a ballistic missile launch platform in the capital Sanaa and a storage facility inside a mountainous site in Saada.
Adding to this, media reports suggest that Israel is preparing a potential attack against Iran, either in coordination with the US or independently, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, a deepening fiscal shock in France led to an extended rout in the fixed income market, keeping US bond yields near multi-year highs and offering additional support to the Greenback. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside. Bearish traders, however, might await more cues about the Fed's future policy path before positioning for further losses.
Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes, due on Wednesday. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members, along with the incoming geopolitical headlines, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some impetus to gold. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop backs the case for an eventual XAU/USD breakdown below the lower boundary of a familiar range held over the past week or so.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
Against the backdrop of a fall from the August monthly swing high, the recent range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 suggests weak momentum that reinforces the downside bias rather than a clear oversold condition.
However, a convincing break below the trading range and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,098 is needed to back the case for deeper losses toward the structural floor around the prior cycle low near $3,936. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,226, followed closely by the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $4,254. Further barriers are pegged at the 50.0% retracement near $4,316 and higher Fibonacci levels at $4,406 and $4,517 before the distant swing high around $4,696.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 3.62% | 2.35% | 1.49% | 3.42% | 3.29% | 4.87% | 2.98% | |
| EUR | -3.62% | -1.24% | -2.08% | -0.21% | -0.30% | 1.39% | -0.63% | |
| GBP | -2.35% | 1.24% | -0.84% | 1.06% | 0.94% | 2.67% | 0.63% | |
| JPY | -1.49% | 2.08% | 0.84% | 1.92% | 1.77% | 3.30% | 1.52% | |
| CAD | -3.42% | 0.21% | -1.06% | -1.92% | -0.12% | 1.33% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | -3.29% | 0.30% | -0.94% | -1.77% | 0.12% | 1.72% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | -4.87% | -1.39% | -2.67% | -3.30% | -1.33% | -1.72% | -1.99% | |
| CHF | -2.98% | 0.63% | -0.63% | -1.52% | 0.44% | 0.29% | 1.99% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- AUD/JPY gathers strength to around 110.20 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- The negative outlook of the cross remains intact, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 110.60; the initial support level to watch is 100.00.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 110.20 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders await the speech from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda later on Tuesday for more clues on the interest rate outlook.
The BoJ could indicate later this month that underlying inflation has reached nearly its 2% target, according to three sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking. Such a signal would underscore the central bank’s willingness to resume raising interest rates in the coming months.
The sources said after hiking rates in September, some BoJ policymakers remain cautious about another rate increase this month. They would prefer to assess more economic data and evaluate how previous rate hikes have influenced domestic financial conditions before making another move.
On the Aussie front, money markets are now betting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely raise rates at its November policy meeting. The probability of a rate hike fell to around 20%, data from LSEG showed.
Japan and Korea inflation data keep BoJ and BoK on policy alert
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU note that the latest inflation releases from Korea and Japan have kept market attention firmly on underlying price pressures, even as headline moves diverge. In Korea, they point out that "CPI inflation eased to 2.9%yoy in September, matching consensus and down from 3.1%yoy," suggesting some moderation but not enough to take inflation off the policy radar.
In contrast, Japan’s data surprised to the upside. MUFG/BTMU highlight that "headline Tokyo CPI, which serves as a leading proxy for nationwide inflation, accelerated to 2.7%yoy in September, above the 2.5% consensus and 1.9% in August." More strikingly, they stress that "core Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose markedly to 3.0%yoy, above the 2.5% consensus and 2.0%yoy in August, marking its highest reading under the Takaichi administration." Taken together, MUFG/BTMU judge that these readings "should keep both the BoK and BoJ attentive to inflation and the need for policy tightening," reinforcing the focus on policy trajectories and, by extension, regional currency positioning.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath the Bollinger middle band (20-period simple moving average) and the 100-day moving average. The pair is further capped by the upper Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 40.8 sits in a neutral-to-soft range, hinting that selling pressure prevails but without oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located near the Bollinger middle band at 110.60, en route to a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger band around 112.15. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 100-day moving average near112.55.
On the flip side, the next meaningful support emerges at the 100.00 psychological level, followed by the lower limit Bollinger band around 109.10. A decisive break would open room for a deeper slide towards the October 1 low of 108.71.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/JPY could find initial support at the lower boundary of the channel around 176.60.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 29.78, signaling potential seller exhaustion and eventual stabilization.
- The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 178.18.
EUR/JPY halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 177.40 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross is remaining close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, suggesting the price holds support and a temporary bounce. However, a break below the channel would signal accelerating downward momentum in a steeper downtrend.
The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The currency cross has recently slipped below the nearer structural floor at 175.70, turning recent price action into a corrective phase, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 29.78 hovers in oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure is strong, fresh selling could become more measured in the short term.
The initial support lies at the lower boundary of the channel around 176.60, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at the 14-month low of 169.72.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound and test the nine-day EMA at 178.18, followed by the 50-day EMA at 181.20. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.20, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
ECB tone softens as Lagarde flags growth risks from rising yields
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the ECB has scope to ease market tensions through communication before resorting to more forceful tools. They note that, despite elevated inflation, ECB representatives could "adopt a less hawkish tone in their public comments, thereby dampening expectations of interest-rate hikes and easing pressure on government bonds." In their view, Christine Lagarde’s recent appearance before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs already points in this direction, as she stressed that "the sharp rise in bond yields would dampen economic growth and limit the pass-through of higher energy costs to consumers," signalling greater sensitivity to the impact of tighter financing conditions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.00% | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.00% | -0.01% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) could indicate later this month that underlying inflation has reached nearly its 2% target, according to three sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking. Such a signal would underscore the BoJ’s willingness to resume raising interest rates in the coming months.
While the announcement would be largely symbolic, it could strengthen market expectations for a rate increase in December and demonstrate that the central bank remains prepared to lift borrowing costs at relatively short intervals.
The sources said after increasing rates in September, some BoJ policymakers remain cautious about another hike this month. They would prefer to assess more economic data and evaluate how previous rate increases have influenced domestic financial conditions before making another move.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.15% on the day at 158.15.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,786.33 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,827.29 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 149,137.20 per tola from INR 149,615.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,786.33 |
10 Grams | 127,863.30 |
Tola | 149,137.20 |
Troy Ounce | 397,700.10 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- The US Dollar reflects strength against its peers due to firm US Treasury Yields.
- The selling pressure in US bond remains elevated due to persistent inflation fears.
- Investors shift their focus to the FOMC minutes of the September meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) trades broadly firm against its major currency peers as United States (US) bond yields remain higher due to persistent inflation fears.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 102.20. The DXY is close to its annual high of 102.54 posted on Monday. 10-Year US Treasury Yields are up 0.24% to near 5.32%, close to its fresh two-decade high of 5.35% posted on Monday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The selling pressure in US bonds remains intensified even as soft Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September has forced traders to scale back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Financial markets argue that Fed’s interest rate expectations rely more on inflation projections than labor market conditions in the latest scenario.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux argues that the softer US payrolls report has reinforced the recent pullback in expectations for near‑term Fed tightening, but the bank stresses that it is “not a game changer for the hawkish predisposition of the Fed – inflation is the bogeyman.” In their view, the latest jobs print instead “justifies caution over cadence and quantity of future policy adjustments.
For fresh cues regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.
On the economic data front, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for September has come in weaker than estimates. The Service PMI arrives at 54.9, lower than expectations of 55.0 and the previous reading of 55.4.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 102.14. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds clearly above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.96, reinforcing an ongoing advance after reclaiming the 100.00 region.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 76.10 sits in overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the downside, initial support is the June 24 high at 101.80 before the 20-day EMA around 100.96. On the upside, the annual high at 102.54 is the major hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Oct 07, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
- Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi plans tax cuts funded without new bond issuances to reassure financial markets.
- Bank of Japan considers rate hikes as inflation exceeds target, but timing remains unclear.
- Safe-haven US Dollar demand may pressure JPY following escalating Middle East geopolitical conflict.
USD/JPY moves little after posting minor gains in the previous day, trading around 157.90 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair has steadied into a tight trading range following recent developments in Japanese fiscal policy.
Japan’s Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is pushing forward with expansionary economic measures despite persistent concerns surrounding the weak Yen and government debt. In a recent parliamentary address, Takaichi pledged to lower the consumption tax on food products while reassuring financial markets that the government intends to secure necessary funding without issuing additional bonds.
Meanwhile, uncertainty lingers regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary trajectory. A summary of opinions from the central bank's September meeting highlighted growing anxiety that inflation could outpace the 2% target, keeping the prospect of another rate hike this year firmly on the table. However, with policy meetings set for October and December, the central bank provided little clarity on the exact timing of any future rate adjustments.
Looking ahead, the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground against the Yen due to increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports from Xinhua News Agency indicate that Yemen’s Houthi group claimed responsibility for coordinated drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi Arabian military bases, an oil facility, and major airports. According to Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree, a successful strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh disrupted local air traffic, injecting fresh volatility into global financial markets.
HSBC highlights profit-led dynamics behind stubborn US inflation
Strategists at HSBC argue that US inflation, while widely blamed on “surging oil and computing costs, as well as the lingering impact of tariffs,” looks different when viewed through the lens of the gross value-added deflator. This measure, which captures “inflation generated by profits, wages, and non-labour related costs,” suggests that the latest acceleration in headline inflation “appears to have been driven mainly by stronger profit growth,” rather than purely by input cost pressures.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- NZD/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday as the USD retains its bullish tone.
- Geopolitical uncertainties and elevated US bond yields continue to act as a tailwind for the buck.
- RBNZ rate hike bets fail to impress NZD bulls as traders await FOMC Minutes, due on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading around the 0.5600 mark, just above its lowest level since November 2025, touched the previous day.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) did get a minor lift after a survey by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showed that business confidence surged in the third quarter of 2026. Adding to this, bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) on October 28 could offer some support to the NZD/USD pair, though a bullish US Dollar (USD) caps the upside.
Geopolitical uncertainties stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East underpin the safe-haven buck. In fact, Yemen's Houthi group said that it carried out three military operations using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones against airports, an oil facility, and military sites across Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Israel is reportedly preparing an attack against Iran, either in coordination with the US or independently.
Meanwhile, a deepening fiscal shock in France led to an extended rout in the fixed income market, keeping US bond yields close to multi-year highs. This turns out to be another factor that assists the buck to trade within striking distance of its highest level since April 2025, touched on Monday. USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path.
US data released last week pointed to moderating inflationary pressures, which, along with the weak Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, tempered market bets for an imminent Fed rate hike in October. Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. Hence, the focus will remain on the release of FOMC meeting Minutes, due on Wednesday.
Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD remains to the upside, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful upside for the pair.
US Dollar Price Last 30 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 30 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 3.66% | 2.35% | 1.34% | 3.40% | 3.32% | 4.79% | 2.96% | |
| EUR | -3.66% | -1.27% | -2.25% | -0.26% | -0.33% | 1.28% | -0.67% | |
| GBP | -2.35% | 1.27% | -0.98% | 1.04% | 0.95% | 2.58% | 0.61% | |
| JPY | -1.34% | 2.25% | 0.98% | 2.04% | 1.95% | 3.37% | 1.64% | |
| CAD | -3.40% | 0.26% | -1.04% | -2.04% | -0.07% | 1.27% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | -3.32% | 0.33% | -0.95% | -1.95% | 0.07% | 1.62% | -0.33% | |
| NZD | -4.79% | -1.28% | -2.58% | -3.37% | -1.27% | -1.62% | -1.93% | |
| CHF | -2.96% | 0.67% | -0.61% | -1.64% | 0.44% | 0.33% | 1.93% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver hovers near two-month lows as rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar outweigh soft jobs data.
- Fresh Middle East geopolitical tensions drove safe-haven demand into the US Dollar following Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia.
- Soaring service-sector inflation pushed yields to 24-year highs, despite high market expectations of a Fed rate pause.
Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around $60.70 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver remains locked near two-month lows as a resilient US Dollar (USD) and surging Treasury yields continue to overshadow supportive economic drivers. While softer US employment figures and diminished expectations for an October interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve provided a temporary buffer, the broader precious metals market remains under pressure.
The US Dollar gained momentum as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked a fresh wave of safe-haven demand. According to Xinhua News Agency, Yemen’s Houthi group claimed responsibility on Monday for a series of coordinated strikes against Saudi Arabian targets using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree noted that the strikes hit military sites, an oil facility, and key transportation hubs, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, where air traffic was disrupted, unsettling global markets.
Compounding the pressure on Silver, US Treasury yields rallied to fresh 24-year highs amid a relentless global bond selloff fed by expanding fiscal risks and sticky inflation. Recent ISM data highlighted that input costs within the US services sector surged at their fastest rate in over four years last month. Even with markets currently pricing in an estimated 78% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady following weaker labor market reports, rising yields and a firm dollar maintain the upper hand.
G7 yields climb as HSBC highlights sharp repricing in long-dated bonds
Strategists at HSBC note that “G7 bond yields have risen by roughly 1% since January, with long-dated US Treasuries and UK Gilts moving well above 5%.” They describe this as a “sharp repricing” in core rates markets, and point out that “three explanations compete to explain” the move, setting the stage for a broader debate over the underlying drivers of higher real yields and the implications for fixed income investors.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1220 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Concerns about France's ability to tame its budget deficit weigh on the Euro.
- Traders reduce their bets on a Fed rate hike this month following soft US jobs data.
The EUR/USD pair declined to around 1.1220 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens near a 17-month low against the US Dollar (USD amid growing concern over France’s debt position.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government announced plans last month for a €54bn savings drive to stave off a catastrophic downgrade or sovereign default. Lecornu said the savings would result in limiting a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP this year to 5% next year. He warned that without action the shortfall between public spending and revenue could reach 6.5%.
Concerns over France’s rising debt costs as the government battles to control its stretched public finances in the run-up to next year’s presidential election. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the shared currency.
Furthermore, the political turmoil in Spain might contribute to the EUR’s downside. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a snap election for November 29 in an effort to increase his parliamentary support after lawmakers last week rejected proposals to address a housing crisis that has drawn nationwide protests.
“Europe is taking the spotlight at the start of the week, as fiscal and political concerns hit the bloc,” said Kathleen Brooks, the research director at XTB. “France is the epicentre of the concerns; however, Spain is also set to get ready for an early election, which is adding to investor worries,” Kathleen added.
Reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the major pair. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 29K in September, compared to the 133K increase seen in August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This figure came in below the market consensus of 90K. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August.
Markets are now pricing in nearly 22.7% odds that the US central bank will lift benchmark borrowing costs at its October policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Euro pressured as ECB backstop complicated by France fiscal strains
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument, designed to provide “a backstop against disorderly spread widening,” is not an automatic shield for Eurozone debt markets. They stress that activation is contingent on EU member states pursuing “sound and sustainable fiscal and macroeconomic policies,” a condition that France’s deteriorating finances increasingly struggle to meet. BBH argues that this complicates the case for intervention, even as the risk of broader contagion across Eurozone bond markets would “increase pressure on the ECB to act.”
At the same time, BBH highlights comments from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who recently underscored that the “increase in long-term interest rates constitutes a material tightening of financial conditions for the euro area.” In their view, that combination leaves the Euro facing sustained downside pressure, as investors weigh rising fiscal risk against the prospect of a “potentially shallower ECB hiking cycle.”
Nagel flags upside inflation risks but sees limited pass-through so far
ECB’s Nagel delivers a stronger-than-usual hawkish signal, with a 7.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 6.6/10 historic average, as upward risks are said to dominate the inflation outlook. The emphasis on uncertainty “calling for flexibility, not inaction” points to a reluctance to ease policy prematurely, which is mildly supportive for the Euro on the margin.
At the same time, Nagel notes there are “no clear signs” that inflation has fed through to price and wage setting, tempering the hawkish tilt and suggesting patience rather than aggressive tightening. Overall, the speech leans hawkish relative to Nagel’s baseline, but the lack of strong wage-price dynamics keeps the door open for data-dependent adjustments rather than a clear push toward further immediate rate hikes.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative tone amid oversold conditions
In the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps a clear bearish tone as it holds beneath the Bollinger Bands’ 20‑day simple moving average and the 100‑day moving average. Price is pressed toward the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 19 stays deeply oversold, suggesting persistent selling pressure but also raising the risk of a corrective bounce from nearby support.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger Bands’ midline around 1.1420, followed by the 100‑day moving average at 1.1505 and then the upper Bollinger band near 1.1670, which together define a broad cap on recovery attempts. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the lower Bollinger band at 1.1170, and a sustained break below this floor would likely expose the pair to a fresh leg lower in the short term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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