Forex News
TD Securities’ Alex Loo highlights that China’s July data showed weaker industrial production, modest retail sales and record-weak Fixed Assets Investment, reinforcing concerns about insufficient domestic demand. The report warns that if economic momentum keeps fading, Beijing risks missing its 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and may respond with stronger counter-cyclical measures and fresh stimulus signals at the September Politburo (Economic) meeting.
Weak data raise pressure for stimulus
"China's economic data disappointed in July, starting off the second half of 2026 on a weak footing. If economic momentum continues to wane, policymakers may miss their GDP target of "4.5-5.0" for 2026 and we could see fresh stimulus announcements at the September Politburo meeting."
"China’s July activity data increases the urgency for policymakers to heed President Xi's call for stronger counter-cyclical adjustments from the July Politburo meeting."
"We believe the main narrative for China's economic outlook remains the same; a lack of domestic demand is still a pain point for China policymakers."
"Economic momentum is waning and could be a major worry for policymakers if August economic data does not show signs of a rebound. The next platform for fresh major stimulus would be the September Politburo (Economic) meeting."
"If economic momentum continues to wane, policymakers may miss its GDP target of "4.5-5.0" for 2026 and we could see fresh stimulus announcements at the September Politburo meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US 30-year yield hits 2007 highs as inflation premium rises.
- Ten-year yield climbs to near 4.73% despite softer US data.
- Fed minutes loom as markets price September hold odds.
US Treasury yields advance on Friday during the North American session after reversing their course following the release of US Retail Sales data last week, which disappointed investors. Meanwhile, the lack of news from the Middle East kept Oil prices higher amid fears of a resumption of hostilities.
Long-end yields climb as debt, supply and inflation concerns dominate
US Treasury yields across the yield curve edged modestly higher, yet the 30-year bond yield surged to levels last seen in 2007 amid fears of a possible reacceleration of inflation in the United States.
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up by nearly four basis points to 4.728%, while the 30-year bond yield grabbed headlines, up nearly six basis points to 5.315%, as investors demand a higher premium. A Bloomberg article read that the rise in the 30-year is a reflection of “investor angst over the surging national debt, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck over the Federal Reserve’s target for the past five years.”
Last week’s US data showed that consumer spending is slowing, while the disinflation process resumed, with consumer and producer prices posting two straight months of declines.
A light economic docket keeps investors focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes on Wednesday.
The US 2-year T-note yield, the most sensitive to interest rate expectations, rises by nearly 1.5 basis points to 4.179%. So far, money markets have priced in a 68% chance that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at the September 2026 meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is almost unchanged, down 0.02% at 99.59.
US 10-year Treasury yield chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 18:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) starts the week on the back foot, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping toward two-month lows and holding below the 100.00 mark. August's run of underwhelming US data jobs, inflation and retail sales has steadily trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) move next month.
On another note, a senior Iranian official said Tehran is shifting to a "fully offensive" stance and warned of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy fails, sending Crude more than 2% higher and keeping a firm bid under Gold as the new week gets underway.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.29% | -0.20% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.00% | 0.15% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.14% | -0.22% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.09% | -0.39% | -0.29% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.09% | -0.29% | -0.20% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.21% | 0.17% | 0.39% | 0.29% | 0.08% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.08% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.30% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.37% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD holds onto gains near the 1.1580 mark after retreating from two-month highs near1.1614 as the softer Greenback underpins the pair.
GBP/USD clings to gains in the mid-1.3500s, holding close to three-month highs ahead of Tuesday's UK jobs report.
USD/JPY treads water in the 159.00 region after a soft Japanese second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print that markets looked past.
AUD/USD trades firm in the low-0.7100s, leading the majors despite weekend data showing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales both slowing.
Gold has extended its rally back above the $4,400 mark, helped by the weaker Dollar and rising Middle East tensions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil jumps toward the $84.00 per barrel area as fresh Iranian escalation threats lift the geopolitical risk premium.
The Asian session opens on Tuesday with Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence, before the European session brings the main event, the UK labor market report. The Bank of England (BoE) watches Average Earnings most closely, with the ILO Unemployment Rate expected to edge down. ZEW sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone follow, alongside a scheduled speech from the European Central Bank's (ECB) Philip Lane.
The US session then takes over with Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production and Pending Home Sales, offering a fresh read on the world's largest economy. New Zealand's second-quarter Producer Price Index (PPI) closes out the session late in the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep its policy rate at 5.75% for a second straight meeting after 100 bps of tightening since May. With Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) pressures easing and inflation within target, he sees room for a continued pause as new governor Destry Damayanti debuts at this week’s policy meeting.
Stable inflation allows BI on hold
"Bank Indonesia (BI) widely expected to keep rates on hold at 5.75% for a second straight meeting (Wednesday). BI can afford to pause after delivering 100bps of tightening since May."
"The slump in IDR eased, and inflation remains within the bank’s 1.5%-3.5% target range."
"The meeting will mark Destry Damayanti’s debut as BI governor. Previously, Destry was the top deputy to former Governor Perry Warjiyo who unexpectedly resigned last month for “personal reasons,” two years ahead of the end of his second five-year term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY is going nowhere, pinned down as a weak US Dollar and Bank of Japan hike bets cancel each other out.
- Japan's Q2 growth slowed and missed forecasts, but a September rate hike is still heavily favored.
- BoJ's September decision is the next real catalyst.
USD/JPY is close to flat on Monday, holding the mid-159.00s region after a soft Japanese growth report overnight failed to shift it in either direction. The pair has been drifting between support at 158.60 and resistance just above 159.50 for five straight days. This is a standoff, not a trend.
August's run of underwhelming US data has trimmed expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) move next month, and that repricing continues to cap any Dollar rally. On its own, that argues for a lower USD/JPY.
The offset comes from Japan. Second-quarter GDP disappointed, with the annualized figure printing 1.1% against forecasts of 2.0% and slowing from the prior quarter as domestic demand, capital spending and consumption all came in soft. Normally, that would weigh on the Yen by muddying the case for tighter policy.
Overnight swaps still price in roughly an 80% chance of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September. The GDP deflator, up 2.6% on the year, was the key detail, reminding markets that inflation is running well above target even as growth stumbles.
The Middle East adds to that inflation picture rather than subtracting from it. The renewed escalation threat out of Iran, and the firmer Crude prices that come with it, cut both ways for the Yen. Japan imports its energy, so a higher Oil bill is a drag, but it also feeds directly into the price pressure the BoJ is now leaning against. If anything, that reinforces the case for a September hike.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.45. The pair is consolidating between nearby support and overhead resistance. Price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.31 but remains capped well below the 100-period SMA at 159.94. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 suggests moderately positive momentum without overbought conditions, hinting at a balanced near-term tone while the market digests recent gains.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the horizontal barrier around 159.60, with the 100-period SMA at 159.94 reinforcing a higher cap if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.35, followed by the 20-period SMA at 159.31. A break below these intraday floors would expose the next cushions at 159.19 and then 158.94, where previous buying interest has emerged.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD remains under mild downward pressure after slipping to 1.2775 before rebounding. Intraday, the pair may retest 1.2775, but support at 1.2765 is expected to hold. Over the next 1–3 weeks, further downside requires a clear break below 1.2765 toward 1.2740, while resistance at 1.2830 caps the topside.
Downside bias but limited follow through
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD traded in a narrow range and closed largely unchanged at 1.2807 last Thursday. On Friday, we indicated that “the price action provides no fresh clues.” We also indicated that USD “could trade between 1.2795 and 1.2820.” However, USD fell to a low of 1.2775 before recovering to close at 1.2789 (-0.10%). The slight increase in downward momentum is insufficient to indicate a continued decline. That said, there is a chance for USD to test 1.2775 again. The next support at 1.2765 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.2805; a breach of 1.2815 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.2805), we highlighted that “while the price action continues to suggest downside risk, USD must break clearly below 1.2765 before a move to 1.2740 can be expected.” Since then, USD traded mostly sideways, remaining within a range. Downward momentum has slowed, but as long as 1.2830 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.2840) is not breached, there is still a chance for USD to break clearly below 1.2765."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN reclaims 17.00 despite softer US inflation data last week.
- Middle East uncertainty weighs on Peso as truce deadline ends.
- Banxico minutes and Retail Sales could guide next move.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with USD/MXN reclaiming the 17.00 level, even though the latest US inflation and Retail Sales data disappointed investors. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair trades at 17.03, breaking a four-day losing streak.
USD/MXN expands despite softer US data as traders await Banxico minutes
Last week’s US data was softer than expected, prompting investors to trim their hawkish bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise rates at the September meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July expanded by 3.4% YoY, down from 3.5% in June, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed from 5.5% to 4.7% for the same period.
Both reports showed progress in the disinflation process, while Friday’s Retail Sales report showed that consumer spending is easing, with sales falling from 0.2% to -0.6%.
The data pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to trade near two-month lows before recovering some ground. The DXY, which measures the performance of the Greenback against six currencies, is down 0.05% at 99.59.
Uncertainty about the war in the Middle East could have weighed on the Mexican currency. US President Donald Trump said that he is not in a hurry to end the war with Iran, though he added that they would not seek an extension to the 60-day truce agreed in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which ended on Monday.
Across the southern border, the Mexican economic docket remained absent last week, but on August 20, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to release its latest meeting minutes, which are expected to show board members' stances on the economy and monetary policy.
The docket will resume on Friday, with traders awaiting Mexican Retail Sales for June, which are expected to surge from 1.6% to 3.1% YoY due to the World Cup.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.0331. The pair retains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the clustered simple moving averages around 17.37 and beneath both descending trend-line resistances, suggesting rallies remain capped within a broader downside structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits just under the 30 line, hinting at oversold conditions but not yet showing a decisive recovery in momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the triple simple moving average area near 17.37, with the two descending resistance trend lines reinforcing a broader supply zone above that region. As long as price remains under these caps, the path of least resistance stays to the downside, and any bounce toward 17.37 would likely be viewed as corrective within the prevailing bearish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH is trading near recent lows as Chinese policymakers allow a measured pace of Renminbi (RMB) appreciation while resisting an overly rapid move via a sizeable fixing premium. Weaker July credit data reinforce domestic-demand concerns, but exporter conversions, fixing bias and a softer US Dollar (USD) are seen as offsets, with support at 6.74/6.72 and resistance near 6.7580/6.7730.
RMB near strongest levels since early 2023
"RMB continue to trade near its strongest levels since early 2023. Friday’s USD/CNY fixing of 6.7878 was the lowest since Feb 2023 but was still around 460pips higher than the Bloomberg fixing survey and about 430pips higher than where USD/CNH spot was trading."
"The message remains consistent with policymakers allowing for measured pace of RMB appreciation but continue to lean against an overly rapid move."
"On the data front, China’s weaker than expected credit data added to concerns. New yuan loans totalled CNY10.38tn for year-to-date to Jul, down from CNY12.87tn the same period a year ago while on MoM basis, the implied estimation was a contraction of CNY340bn in July. New aggregate social financing totalled CNY22.25tn year-to-date Jul, down from CNY23.9tn same period a year ago."
"This reinforces concerns over weak domestic demand. But for FX, exporter conversions, the fixing bias and broader USD/ sentiments remain important offsets."
"USD/CNH was last at 6.7450 levels. Momentum and RSI indicators are flat. Support at 6.74, 6.72 levels. Resistance at 6.7580 (21 DMA), 6.7730 (50 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen describes Washington’s emerging carrot-and-stick approach to artificial intelligence, extending its Pax Silica framework. The US aims to force countries to choose between its AI (Artificial intelligence) coalition and China’s rival alliance, potentially cutting off access to US AI technologies. The report notes concerns over Kazakhstan’s dual participation and frames gross domestic compute as a new pillar of strategic autonomy.
US-China AI blocs and tech alignment
"Washington is preparing a similar carrot-and-stick approach in the field of artificial intelligence. The US wants to force countries to pick a side in the AI-race with China. Any country that signs a deal with Beijing could be cut off from the US’ AI coalition."
"The draft policy is an extension of the Pax Silica agreement, which was designed to improve the US’ access to critical resources and to strengthen supply lines for semiconductors."
"Various countries have already joined the US agreement, which is not binding. China has since launched a rival alliance, causing Kazakhstan to effectively be a signatory to both frameworks."
"That’s a concern for the US, primarily because the country has a cache of critical minerals. But Washington also wants to prevent that its rivals get access to its frontier AI models and research."
"So, the Trump administration may soon send out letters telling its allies to pledge allegiance to the flag – or be cut off from US technologies. It’s a reminder that gross domestic compute is becoming an increasingly important element of strategic autonomy and the power a country can project on the global stage."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold rallies above $4,420 as US Dollar weakness lifts bullion.
- Rising long-end yields cap upside near the $4,500 threshold.
- Fed minutes and Iran headlines may drive next market catalysts.
Gold (XAU/USD) price rises over 1% on Monday amid overall US Dollar (USD) weakness and lower US Treasury yields, following last week’s soft inflation data that reduced speculation of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), . The XAU/USD trades at $4,422 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,367.
XAU/USD advances as softer inflation trims Fed bets despite rising yields
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.37% at 99.53, a tailwind for the precious metal. The US 10-year T-note yield, although rising over 2.5 basis points to 4.718%, caps Gold’s advance towards the $4,500 mark.
US Treasury yields at the long end of the curve, the 30-year, are reaching 2007 highs. Bloomberg reported that it reflects “investor angst over the surging national debt, a flood of long-dated bond sales and inflation that’s been stuck” above the Federal Reserve’s 2% for the past five years.
Last week’s consumer- and producer-side inflation triggered an investor reaction to trim Fed-hawkish bets. Fears that prices will not resume declines in the near term are fueled by the lack of progress in US-Iran talks in the Middle East.
Crude prices remain on the front seat, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surging over 2.30% to $84.35 per barrel.
Mixed geopolitical signals suggest that Iran is shifting its policy from defensive to an offensive one. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the “Islamabad agreement has not collapsed and the possibility of returning to it remains,” via Al Arabiya.
In the meantime, Investors see a nearly 69% chance that the Fed will hold rates unchanged, while the odds for the December meeting continue to price in a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal.
Markets are now looking forward to the Fed's July meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, to gain more insight into policymakers' monetary stance.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold surpasses the 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,500
Gold price has reclaimed the $4,400 figure and is on its way to clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386, as part of a confluence of technical levels, which capped bullion’s price in the short term.
Worth noting that momentum is bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This confirms that the uptrend is in place, though traders must clear the $4,500 milestone, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,506. On further strength, the next resistance is the $4,600 mark.
For a bearish reversal, Gold needs to drop below the 100-day SMA, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,146 and $4,100.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
