Forex News
- AUD/USD declines to near 0.6975 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- US- Iran conflict escalates as the US announced another troop was killed.
- Softer US inflation data led traders to cut bets on imminent rate hikes from the Fed.
The AUD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.6975 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends the decline below the 0.7000 psychological level due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The Guardian reported that US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced another death of a service member as it launched more airstrikes at Iran on Sunday in response to the killing of American troops. The US military said the service member was killed in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone.
Both sides have been accused of striking critical infrastructure in recent days. Meanwhile, Washington has reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and targeted US allies in the region. Ongoing conflict between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair.
Softer-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data released last week have dampened the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets. This, in turn, could weigh on the USD against the Aussie.
The probability for a Fed rate hike in July stood at 14%, versus a 25% implied chance last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are pricing in 30 basis points (bps) of hikes by December.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The United States (US) has launched the ninth night of Iran strikes. Washington said that airstrikes on Sunday aimed to "punish" Iran over the first US military deaths since renewed hostilities with Tehran, Bloomberg reported.
The US reported the death of another American service member, who was killed in northern Iraq during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone. US Central Command (CENTCOM) also said it has located unidentified remains in Jordan, where a separate Iranian attack left two US troops dead and one missing in action.
Air raid sirens sounded across Bahrain after Iran carried out a fresh wave of ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting sites in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Iran missiles targeting Jordan triggered sirens near Aqaba, with Jordan saying its forces intercepted three missiles and reported no casualties or damage. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s army stated that the attacks on the power and desalination plants caused fires and “severe damage” to “vital institutions.”
Israel said Sunday it intercepted an Iranian drone near the Israel-Syria border, with Defense Minister Israel Katz warning Tehran that it will re-engage if attacked.
The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remained low over the weekend, with just four vessels crossing on Sunday, down from eight the previous day, according to LSEG shipping data.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 6.77. In their 1–3 week view, they maintain a downside bias toward 6.7600 as long as strong resistance at 6.7820 remains intact. Over 1–3 months, they see tentative upside potential if key technical resistance is broken.
Short-term consolidation, medium-term downside bias
"24-HOUR VIEW: After USD fell as we expected on Wednesday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Our view was not wrong, as USD subsequently rose to 6.7781 and then fell to a low of 6.7653. Downward momentum continues to increase, and today, there is a chance for USD to test 6.7600. To keep the momentum going, USD must hold below 6.7780 (minor resistance is at 6.7720).” Our expectation did not materialise, as USD traded in a quiet manner between 6.7649 and 6.7753, closing little changed at 6.7734 (+0.07%). The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase, which is expected to be between 6.7670 and 6.7780."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (15 Jul, spot at 6.7720), we highlighted that “downward momentum is increasing, and USD is likely to trade with a downside bias toward 6.7600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 6.7820 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying analyzes the latest Bank of Korea (BoK) decision, noting a hawkish shift as the base rate is raised to 2.75%. The report now anticipates a faster tightening cycle, with the policy rate reaching 3.25% by year-end 2026. Growth is expected to benefit from the AI-driven semiconductor sector, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected to overshoot target.
BoK signals accelerated tightening cycle
"The Bank of Korea raised the base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% at its July 16 meeting, marking the first rate hike since January 2023. The BOK maintained a hawkish stance and signaled that further rate increases are likely, although it provided no guidance on the timing of future moves."
"The BoK’s hawkish messaging suggests that the rate hike cycle could proceed faster than we previously anticipated. We had expected a total of 50bps of hikes in 2H26 (one in 3Q and one in 4Q)."
"We now expect a cumulative 75bps increase in 2H26, implying two additional 25bps hikes over the remaining three policy meetings this year (August, October, and November), bringing the policy rate to 3.25% by year-end."
"We do not expect significant upside surprises in real GDP growth during 2H26, as the current AI boom is likely to boost semiconductor export prices and corporate profitability more than export volumes or industrial output."
"However, we expect CPI inflation to continue rising and overshoot the BoK’s target, reaching around 3.5% YoY in 2H26, as energy cost pass-through effects persist and stronger export revenues and corporate profits translate into higher wages and demand-driven inflation pressures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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