Forex News
- The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar AMID renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
- A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
- Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).
Hormuz closure boosts oil prices
WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.
On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.
US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions
Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.08% | 0.23% | 0.19% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.16% | 0.14% | 0.10% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.15% | 0.14% | 0.05% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.22% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.23% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.29% | -0.05% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.22% | 0.05% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.17% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).
FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.
Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.
On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers to near 20-day EMA
USD/INR recovers its Friday's losses and rebounds to near 93.00 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
- The Canadian Consumer Price Index is seen accelerating 1.1% in March following a 0.5% increase in February.
- The yearly CPI inflation is expected to have jumped to 2.5%, above the BoC’s target
- The Canadian Dollar maintains a positive tone against the US Dollar in April.
Canada’s economic docket opens on Monday with the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran. The data, released by Statistics Canada, is likely to confirm a significant increase in price pressures, driven by higher energy costs.
Market analysts foresee the monthly CPI accelerating 1.1%, more than twice the 0.5% reading seen before the war started in February. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the CPI is expected to have grown at a 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) rate, from 1.8% in the previous month.
The sharp increase in Oil and Gas prices, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, would have been the main driver of higher inflationary figures. However, the core inflation, which strips the influence of energy and food prices, is seen fairly steady, rising 0.3% in March, compared to 0.4% in the previous month, and ticking up to 2.4% from 2.3% year-on-year.
These figures are likely to raise some eyebrows at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy committee, and, highly likely, bring the possibility of a rate hike back to the table. The BoC has lowered interest rates by 2.75% over the last two years.
What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?
Canada’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 2.25%, at its March 18 meeting, but the monetary policy statement already warned about “increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy", stemming from the US-Iran war.
Inflation data for March will corroborate those fears. As previously stated, headline CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% while core inflation would pick up to 2.4%, in both cases significantly above the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
These figures will definitely raise market speculation about monetary tightening, although the broader macroeconomic picture clouds the bank’s monetary policy stance. The Canadian economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2025, and the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a meagre 0.1% growth in January. Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from March revealed that business activity contracted for the first time since November, hinting at a soft end of the quarter.
In this context, BoC policymakers are likely to think twice before hiking interest rates too early, as it might damage an already frail growth, tipping the economy into a recession. ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole points out: "Markets are pricing around 40bp of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC has not signalled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA renegotiations – a major downside risk for Canada’s activity and jobs."
When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Canada’s Consumer Price Index figures for March will be released by Statistics Canada on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Higher inflation figures, when they are driven by stronger economic activity and a tight labour market, tend to have a positive impact on the currency. This time, however, the scenario is somewhat different.
Canadian economic growth remains sluggish, weighed down by the higher tariffs from the US, its main trading partner. With this in mind, a sharp increase in inflation will create a headache for the Bank of Canada, which will have to choose between supporting economic growth and combating inflation, and might hurt the Loonie.
All things considered, a strong CPI is likely to raise concerns about stagflation and put the Canadian Dollar under pressure. In the current scenario, the CAD would be favoured by softer-than-expected inflation figures, which would buy some time for the Bank of Canada to wait for additional data before deciding its next monetary policy steps.
Regarding the USD/CAD, Guillermo Alcala, FX Analyst at FXStreet, observes the pair’s downward trend since early April, rather due to the US Dollar’s weakness, amid investors’ optimism about a resolution of the Middle East conflict, than to any intrinsic Canadian Dollar strength.
“Canadian Dollar bulls are focusing on the area between 1.3650 and 1.3670, where the USD/CAD found support last week and also on March 16 and 23, before the March 9 low at 1.3525”. Alcalá, however, warns about technical indicators: “The overbought levels in the 4-hour Relative StrengthIndex (RSI) and some bearish divergence in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest that a corrective reaction might be ahead.”
On the upside, Alcalá sees the “1.3735 area (April 14 low) as immediate resistance, ahead of the April 15 high, right below 1.3790, and the April 13 highs around 1.3875.”
Economic Indicator
BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)
The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Mon Apr 20, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.3%
Source: Statistics Canada
Bank of Canada FAQs
The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.
In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose assesses the latest inflation data for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary following the recent energy price spike. He notes that while headline inflation accelerated as expected, core measures show only mild, statistically noisy upticks. Regional central banks are seen pausing further rate cuts until Oil prices fall, with secondary inflation effects still negligible for now.
Secondary inflation effects remain muted
"It is perhaps not surprising that the energy price shock has not yet had any noticeable secondary effects in March. After all, this was the first month that world energy prices had jumped, and it is likely that most countries will suffer from higher import prices only gradually as forward contracts expire. Still, because of the tricky juncture we are in, it is worth tracking and commenting on the latest data."
"As we had seen earlier in the US, headline inflation in Eastern Europe accelerated in March. This was widely anticipated for obvious reasons and will not be a concern if crude oil prices were to head back down soon. What the market may be more concerned about are secondary effects that can percolate into core categories and stick around for longer (thereby becoming a domestic policy problem)."
"HICP data published by Eurostat last week showed that core HICP mildly accelerated in March, but the acceleration was within the range of monthly noise."
"Central banks in the region are not expected to cut rates any further until the oil price has declined considerably from current levels. By that time, it will become clear whether or not prominent second-round effects will impact inflation. For now, we wanted to note that there were negligible signs of secondary effects in the latest data."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now. Baghaei added that the US seems “not serious” about pursuing the diplomatic process, remains committed to 'aggressive acts' and has violated ceasefire provisions, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, a senior Iranian source has stated that “differences over nuclear program remain unresolved, gaps have not narrowed”.
Additional remarks
Continuation of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines Iran-US peace talks.
Iran’s 'defensive capabilities', including its missile programme, are not open to negotiation.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 20:
Markets adopt a cautious stance to start the week following a fresh escalation of the tensions in the Middle East. Monday's economic calendar will feature March inflation data from Canada and the Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its Business Outlook Survey. Nevertheless, investors will remain focused on headlines surrounding the US-Iran war.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.24% | -0.00% | 0.32% | 0.29% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.08% | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.10% | 0.21% | 0.19% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.18% | 0.12% | 0.05% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.31% | 0.25% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.31% | -0.03% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.25% | 0.03% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.11% | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Risk flows dominated the financial markets in the early American session on Friday after Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, announced that, following the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage of all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open during the ceasefire period. However, the United States (US) said that the blockade will remain in place. In response, Iran closed the strait again on Saturday and said that any vessels approaching the region will be attacked. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump again threated to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if they fail to reach an agreement at the end of the temporary ceasefire period this Wednesday. Additionally, the US has seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to get past the US' blockade.
US Vice President JD Vance and top US officials will be in Pakistan for the second of talks on Monday. Reporting on the matter, Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said that Tehran authorities refuse to sit again with White House representatives amid their "unrealistic expectations," among other things. Additionally, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson echoed the same sentiment on Monday, saying that there is no plan for a second reound of negotiations with the US.
In the European session, US stock index futures lose between 0.6% and 0.7%. The US Dollar (USD) Index clings to small gains near 98.30, while the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $87.50, rising more than 4% on the day.
EUR/USD recovers slightly and trades flat on the day near 1.1760 after opening with a bearish gap.
Gold (XAU/USD) dropped below $4,750 at the weekly opening but managed to erase a portion of its losses. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading near $4,800, down more than 0.5% on a daily basis.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3500 after having touched a weekly low of 1.3475 in the early Asian session.
USD/JPY trades marginally higher on the day near 159.00 after having lost nearly 0.5% in the previous week.
USD/CAD trades in a narrow range near 1.3700 in the European morning on Monday. The Consumer Price Index in Canada is forecast to rise 1.1% on a monthly basis in March.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Dow Jones futures slip as risk aversion rises amid renewed Middle East tensions.
- Tehran refuses to resume US talks, citing “unrealistic expectations” and other concerns.
- Traders adopt caution as persistent US inflation reinforces the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance.
Dow Jones futures decline 0.62% below 49,350, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also falling 0.49% and 0.47% to near 7,120 and 26,700, respectively, during European hours on Monday ahead of the United States (US) regular opening.
US stock futures fell amid increased risk aversion due to renewed US–Iran tensions. Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported that Tehran has refused to resume talks with US officials, citing “unrealistic expectations,” among other concerns. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a brief reopening after Trump refused to lift port blockades.
US President Trump confirmed on Truth Social that US representatives will travel to Islamabad for negotiations with Iran on Monday. However, he also criticized Tehran’s move to re-close the Strait and reiterated threats to target Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges.
Market sentiment turns sour on fading expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, driven by persistent inflation concerns linked to elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Last week, the Dow Jones gained 3.19% for its third consecutive weekly gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallied 4.54% and 6.84%, respectively, with both benchmarks reaching fresh record highs.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that the job market’s break-even rate is likely near zero, adding that a prolonged Middle East conflict could heighten both inflation and employment risks. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted she is assessing whether rising oil prices are feeding into broader goods and services inflation.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- GBP/USD attracts some dip-buyers following a bearish gap down to a one-week low on Monday.
- Fading Fed rate hike bets counter US-Iran tensions and undermine the USD, supporting the pair.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
The GBP/USD pair builds on its modest intraday recovery from a one-week low and climbs back above the 1.3500 psychological mark during the early European session on Monday. Spot prices have now filled the weekly bearish gap and seem poised to appreciate further amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling.
Despite renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, the safe-haven USD struggles to capitalize on its early gains to a one-week high amid diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Bank of England's (BoE) outlook, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the British Pound (GBP) and validates the positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bulls. The subsequent move up, however, stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall , around the 1.3600 mark, or over a two-month high set on Friday, and warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 48 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remaining slightly negative. This hints that upside traction is still tentative and backs the case for a move back towards the 1.3600 neighborhood, or the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level. This is followed by a more significant barrier at the 78.6% level near 1.3716.
Some follow-through buying beyond the recent cycle high zone around the 1.3868 area will reaffirm the near-term positive outlook and pave the way for additional gains. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 50% retracement level at 1.3512, with further cushions seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.3428 and the 200-period SMA at 1.3364. A deeper slide would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.3324 ahead of the structural low around 1.3156.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.15% | -0.06% | 0.19% | 0.20% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.18% | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.00% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.00% | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.17% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/JPY moves higher to near 214.60 as BoJ policy uncertainty weighs on the Japanese Yen.
- Investors await the UK employment and inflation data.
- BoE’s Bailey sees no rush for monetary policy adjustments despite the energy supply shock.
The GBP/JPY pair trades higher to near 214.60 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its peers amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on April 28.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.16% | -0.00% | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.11% | -0.02% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.18% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.14% | 0.08% | 0.03% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | -0.22% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.19% | 0.01% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.03% | 0.19% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Investors doubt that the BoJ will deliver an interest rate hike amid the worsening economic outlook in the wake of the negative energy shock.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that Japan is facing rising inflation from a "negative supply shock," which is more difficult to rein in with monetary policy than inflation driven by strong demand.
This week, investors will focus on the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. National CPI ex. Fresh Food is expected to arrive higher at 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 1.6%.
Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a mixed performance at the start of the United Kingdom (UK) data-packed week. Investors will pay close attention to the UK labor market data for the three months ending February and the CPI data for March, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The employment report is expected to show that wage growth cools down, and the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.2%. While the inflation data is expected to have grown at a faster pace.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that there is no rush for a monetary policy adjustment in the upcoming policy meeting on April 30, despite having a “very big negative shock”, Reuters reports.
We’re not going to rush to judgments on those things, because there are a lot of uncertainties around this, not just how it’s going to play out, but also how it’s going to pass through into the UK economy," Bailey said at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington last week.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Apr 22, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.3%
Previous: 3%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) briefly weakened after news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, implying US Dollar Index (DXY) around 97.50/98.00 and EUR/USD just over 1.18 if the crisis were resolved. ING economists expect the Dollar to stay near those levels this quarter, with DXY instead likely trading around 98.00/98.50 as Federal Reserve (Fed) easing hopes fade.
Fed expectations and conflict drive DXY
"Friday's headline from Iranian authorities that the Strait of Hormuz was 'fully open' gave us a vision of where the dollar could be trading were this crisis over. That equated to around the 97.50/98.00 area in DXY and just over 1.18 in EUR/USD.
"The stop-start nature of peace talks does focus attention on when energy flows can fully restart and whether high oil prices will start to seep into other areas of the economy. We note another good speech from the Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller, released on Friday ahead of the Fed's blackout period. The speech was entitled 'One Transitory Shock After Another'."
"Recall that Waller voted for a cut in January, and the point he is making now is that the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the risk that this oil shock adds to the tariff shock and de-anchors inflation expectations. For him, the 5-10 year US inflation expectations derived through the 5Y5Y inflation swap look important."
"Any move to the 2.70/2.80% area, as seen in early 2022, could well call time on any hopes of Fed easing this year."
"We are not in the camp looking for an immediate return of the benign dollar decline that characterised the start of the year, and suspect DXY can trade in ranges near the 98.00/98.50 area."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
HSBC Asset Management highlights that global stock indices have stayed resilient through the Oil shock, while valuations and risk premia have adjusted more meaningfully. In the US, weaker prices and stronger earnings expectations have compressed the S&P 500 multiple, and higher earnings yields versus bond yields have lifted equity risk premia, leading the bank to argue that expected equity returns have risen.
Multiples compress and risk premia widen
"Stock indices have been resilient through the oil shock. But the real adjustment has been taking place under the surface – in market multiples and risk premia."
"First, in the US, the combination of weaker stock prices, alongside a likely strong Q1 corporate earnings season, and an upgraded 2026 profits scenario – means the market multiple has dropped to around 20x."
"Resilient profits and higher earnings yields have outpaced the rise in bond yields so far."
"US real rates, as measured by long-term Treasury inflation-protected securities, are steady year to date, at around 1.9%. That means the equity premium has moved higher, especially in some EMs."
"The bottom line is that expected returns have moved higher, even if that’s hard to see from price charts alone."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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