Forex News

• The US Dollar returns above 99.00 after bouncing from 98.50 on Wednesday.
• Investors turn cautious amid the first cracks in Iran's ceasefire deal.
• A hawkish tilt on the Fed's minutes provided additional support to the USD.

The US Dollar (USD) has trimmed some losses to consolidate right above the 99.00 level on Thursday, after bouncing from lows at 98.50 on Wednesday. The safe-haven US Dollar has picked up as investors come to terms with the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran.

A few hours after the ceasefire was announced, Iranian authorities closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a massive attack by Israel in Lebanon. The US and Israel affirmed that Lebanon was not included in the deal, but Tehran issued a statement reporting the violation of three key clauses of the agreement, and casting doubts about the viability of further negotiations.

The peace process nevertheless remains alive, as Washington and Tehran announced that they will send delegations to start direct talks in Pakistan on Saturday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with more “action” if they fail to comply with the ceasefire deal.

Fed minutes show a hawkish tweak

On Wednesday, the minutes of March’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting showed a balanced stance. Further rate cuts are still on the table, but some voices raised the possibility of monetary tightening for the first time since the central bank started its monetary easing cycle in August 2024.

Later on Thursday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to show fairly steady price pressures in February, which is likely to be ignored by the market as it predates the war in Iran.

The focus this week will be on the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which will provide the first insight into the inflationary impact stemming from the war. Headline inflation is expected to have accelerated to a 3.3% yearly rate, its highest level in nearly two years, with the core CPI, stripped out of the costs of food and energy, increasing to a 2.7% year-on-year rate, from 2.5% in February.

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• Gold trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling.
• The fragile US-Iran ceasefire supports the USD and acts as a headwind for the commodity.
• The Fed’s dovish outlook caps the USD and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends the sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Thursday, though it manages to hold above the $4,700 mark and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's slide from a three-week high. Skepticism over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire offers some support to the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and helps limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. The White House also confirmed that Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire drawn up between Iran and the US. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. This keeps a lid on the optimism and supports the USD, undermining the Gold price.

Meanwhile, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed a higher-for-longer stance, with officials in no rush to cut interest rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. That said, policymakers still signaled one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear. This caps the attempted USD recovery from a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day, and turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the Gold price.

Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy outlook and drive the USD price, providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction for the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold seems vulnerable amid a bearish technical setup

The XAU/USD pair holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement of the March downside, keeping a bearish bias intact. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips into negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around a neutral 52, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh impulsive leg higher.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement around $4,604, with further cushions at the 23.6% level near $4,412 and the prior swing low region close to $4,102, where buyers would be expected to show more interest. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,758, followed by a heavier barrier in the $4,895–$4,914 zone where the 200-period SMA and the 61.8% retracement converge, ahead of higher hurdles at the $5,000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation does not give the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank a reason to change its stance. The bank already projects inflation below target and is likely to look through temporary downside surprises, given offsetting Oil price risks. She adds that the Swedish Krona (SEK) will remain driven mainly by global risk sentiment rather than shifting rate expectations for now.

Soft inflation but policy unchanged

"The preliminary Swedish consumer price index data for March came in below expectations, falling to 1.6% year-on-year (expected: 2.2%) and to 1.1% for core inflation (expected: 1.5%) – partly due to base effects and the appreciation of the krona last year."

"In its forecasts, the Riksbank anticipates a decline well below the target for both rates anyway, even if March is still a little too early for that."

"And even if concerns were to arise that the decline in inflation rates might be too rapid and too sharp compared to their own forecasts (partly due to the planned VAT cut next month), the risk of rising prices caused by the oil price shock is likely to counteract these concerns."

"The Riksbank can therefore, for the time being, look forward to the expected price rises resulting from the oil price shock with confidence, but will of course remain vigilant – as emphasised at its March meeting – depending on how the conflict ultimately unfolds following the ceasefire."

"Therefore, in my opinion, there is no reason to expect a change in the Riksbank’s stance for the time being."

"The Swedish krona remains, for the time being, at the mercy of market risk aversion, as demonstrated by the reaction following the announcement of the ceasefire with Iran; interest rate expectations currently play a (still) subordinate role."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Dow Jones futures decline as risk aversion renewed after Iran said the US breached three clauses of Iran’s proposal.
• Fed March Meeting Minutes show a wait-and-see stance, with risks becoming more balanced.
• Oil prices rebound modestly on supply concerns after tanker traffic halt in the Strait of Hormuz.

Dow Jones futures fall 0.36% to near 47,950 during European hours on Thursday, ahead of the regular opening in the United States (US). Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also lose 0.38% and 0.37% to near 6,800 and 25,000, respectively, at the time of writing.

US stock futures come under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.

The Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer. US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March Meeting Minutes suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Traders will likely observe the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due on Friday.

Oil prices recovered modestly on renewed supply concerns after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States.

In regular US trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones surged 2.85%, the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.8% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire aimed at facilitating negotiations toward a potential resolution to the conflict.

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD briefly broke above 1.3480 before retreating to the mid‑1.33s, suggesting a near‑term consolidation band between 1.3350 and 1.3450. Over the next one to three weeks, upside risks remain in place, but a sustained move toward 1.3520 requires a daily close above 1.3480 while 1.3280 holds as strong support.

Pound needs confirmation above resistance

"GBP appears to have moved into a consolidation phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3350 and 1.3450."

"The upside risk remains intact, but GBP must close above 1.3480 before a move to 1.3520 can be expected. The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3480 will remain intact as long as 1.3280 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) continues to hold."

"A weekly close below the key support at 1.3300 could trigger a decline toward the major support zone at 1.2945/1.3010. (dated 06 Mar 2026, 1.3310)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• The Australian Dollar underperforms as market sentiment turns slightly cautious amid uncertainty over the US-Iran truce.
• Iran criticizes the US for violating the terms of the 10-point peace proposal.
• The RBA is expected to raise interest rates again in May.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades lower against its major currency peers, is down 0.2% to near 0.7030 vs. the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The antipodean faces selling pressure as market sentiment turns slightly risk-averse amid uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran announced on early Wednesday.

At press time, S&P 500 futures have posted some losses, trading 0.2% down to near 6,770. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises 0.1% to near 99.10.

The uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire has stemmed from continued attacks from the Israeli regime on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, criticizes the US for violating the first clause of the 10-point proposal, which states “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.

Meanwhile, both the US and Iran have announced that they are sending teams to Pakistan for the first round of talks regarding the 10-point peace proposal, which is scheduled to start on Saturday.

On the monetary policy front, traders see a 60% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) again in the May policy meeting, according to a Reuters report. Hawkish RBA bets are majorly driven by high inflationary pressures in Australia, which were elevated even before the energy crisis-driven inflation globally.

In the US, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday.

BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position. With Eurozone stagflation concerns contrasting Norway’s positive terms-of-trade shock, he argues that EUR is now more sensitive to any improvement in sentiment, while Norwegian Krone (NOK) strength could stall if energy prices peak and Norges Bank resumes FX purchases.

Euro underheld as NOK remains crowded

"Assuming the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, the “easiest” FX flows to realize would be mean reversion of the “extreme” moves since the beginning of the conflict. On the outflow side, emerging market currencies facing balance of payments stress and developed market currencies exposed to stagflation were hit hardest. At the other end, energy- and commodity-linked currencies with clear policy space were bid."

"The EUR and NOK currently occupy both ends of the spectrum and perfectly encapsulate this view: the Eurozone is seen as struggling with stagflation as energy costs bite, while Norway will see a strongly positive terms-of-trade shock, and Norges Bank has largely pre-committed to a hike – the only developed central bank in Europe to do so."

"The EUR remains the most affected by the unwind of the ‘hedge the dollar’ theme exhibited before the conflict. The process is now fully complete, to the extent that the EUR is now net underheld on an aggregate basis."

"From a domestic asset allocation perspective, given the year-to-date performance of U.S. equities remains manageable, we can only surmise that forward buying of EUR for hedging purposes has been taken off in size – which is striking given rate expectations have moved in a direction which would normally necessitate the opposite behavior. Regardless, now that the EUR is net underheld, the bar for reversing flows is now much lower."

"In contrast, NOK’s gains may halt for now if energy prices peak. Even if energy prices remain elevated, we believe receipts will be large enough to meet government financing requirements such that the Norges Bank may shift toward FX purchases again, representing an additional layer of resistance against positive NOK flows, and NOK holdings remain by far the strongest among European currencies."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• EUR/JPY targets the immediate barrier at the ascending channel’s upper boundary around 185.70.
• The Relative Strength Index at 61.38 signals firm but not overbought bullish momentum.
• The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 184.52.

EUR/JPY rebounds after registering little losses in the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, signaling a bullish bias.

The near-term bias is bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above both the nine-day period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively. The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one suggests an underlying upward trend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.38 points to firm but not yet overstretched bullish momentum as the pair edges toward overhead levels.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest immediate resistance near the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 185.70. A break above the channel would reinforce the bullish outlook and open the door toward the all-time high of 186.88, recorded on January 23.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 184.52. A move below this level could weaken the bullish bias, exposing the 50-day EMA at 183.64, followed by the channel’s lower boundary around 183.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 9:

The risk rally that started after the United States (US) and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire has lost its steam, with market adopting a cautious stance early Thursday. In the second half of the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for February will be featured in the US economic calendar. Additionally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the final revision to the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures.

Wall Street's main indexes registered impressive gains midweek as markets reacted to the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, latest headlines from the region suggest that there is renewed uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the ceasefire. Reflecting the negative shift seen in risk sentiment, US stock index futures lose about 0.3% on the day.

Iranian officials argued that Israel's ongoing aggression against Lebanon is a violation of the ceasefire agreement and noted that it would be "unreasonable" to proceed with the negotiations to reach a permanent peace deal with the US. Moreover, Iran's Fars News Agency reported late Wednesday that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have been stopped after Israel breached the ceasefire, per Reuters. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump said that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel will remain in place in, and around, Iran until a real agreement reached and it's fully complied with, warning that there will be a stronger military response if they fail to do so.

The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers are in a wait-and-see mode but they acknowledge that risks are becoming more balanced. While some policymakers argued that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a softening in labor market conditions, others noted that a persistent increase in oil prices heightens the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. The US Dollar (USD) Index fell to its weakest level in nearly a month near 98.50 on Wednesday but managed to erase a portion of its daily losses during the American trading hours. Early Thursday, the USD Index clings to moderate gains above 99.00.

Crude Oil prices rebound following Wednesday's sharp decline. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading near $92.50, rising more than 1% on the day.

Gold (XAU/USD) climbed above $4,850 but reversed its direction to end the day marginally lower on Wednesday. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $4,700 in the European morning on Thursday.

EUR/USD erased a portion of its daily gains in the American session but still rose more than 0.5% on Wednesday. The pair struggles to hold its ground early Thursday and fluctuates at around 1.1650.

GBP/USD benefited from the USD weakness and closed in positive territory for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair moves sideways slightly below 1.3400 to start the European session.

USD/JPY stages a rebound and ries toward 159.00 after losing more than 0.6% on Wednesday.

• GBP/JPY maintains its near-term bullish bias with downside attempts capped at 212.30.
• Bulls remain focused on the March highs in the 213.30 area.
• Concerns about the impact of Oil prices on the Japanese economy are weighing on Yen rallies.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against a weak Japanese Yen (JPY), extending its rally for the fourth consecutive day, with pullbacks finding support in the lower 212.00s and March highs in the 213.30 area still on the bulls’ radar.

The GBP has shown greater resilience than the Yen to the war in Iran. Investors’ concerns about the economic consequences of the Oil shock in major crude importers, such as Japan, have been a significant headwind to any JPY rally since the war began.

The strong Japanese Labour Cash Earnings data witnessed earlier this week boosted speculation of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This posibility was endorsed by former board member Seiji Adachi on Tuesday, and the Yen bounced up from lows on Wednesday, but the rally was short-lived.

Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY maintains its near-term bullish bias intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in positive territory after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that upside momentum is present but not yet exhausted.

Bulls were halted on Wednesday at 213.15, a few pips below the March top of 213.31. Further up, the next target would be the early February high, in the 214.00 area.

Support is at Wednesday's low, near 212.20, ahead of the April 1 high, at 211.44, and the April 2 and 5 lows around 210.50.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)