Forex News
- Dow Jones futures rise as sentiment improves after Trump extended the ceasefire despite stalled US–Iran talks.
- Bloomberg’s Headline suggests Iran received “some sign” that the US may ease its naval blockade.
- Strong US retail sales bolster expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this year.
Dow Jones futures gain 0.59% above 49,600, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also advancing 0.63% and 0.81% to near 7,150 and 26,850, respectively, during the European hours on Wednesday ahead of the United States (US) regular opening.
US stock futures advance amid improving market sentiment after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire after the second round of US-Iran talks collapsed. Moreover, a Bloomberg headline, citing Tasnim News Agency linked with the IRGC, indicated that Iran has received “some sign” the United States (US) may be willing to ease its naval blockade.
In regular US trading on Tuesday, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 both declined 0.59%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.63%. Wall Street closed lower as concerns intensified after US Vice President JD Vance’s Iran talks trip was paused due to Tehran’s lack of commitment.
UnitedHealth Group shares surged more than 8% after first-quarter results beat expectations and the company raised its earnings outlook. Meanwhile, Amazon advanced by over 1% after agreeing to invest up to $25 billion in AI startup Anthropic.
US Retail Sales rose 1.7% month-over-month in March, following a revised 0.7% increase in February, and exceeding expectations of 1.4%. On an annual basis, sales increased 4.0% in March, matching the previous reading.
Stronger-than-expected US retail sales reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh also pledged independence from the White House while advocating broad reforms, a stance seen as more hawkish than markets anticipated.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- EUR/USD holds losses around 1.1750 as investors pare back hopes of a swift end to the Middle East war.
- Trump extends the ceasefire but keeps the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Upbeat US Retail Sales and testimony from Fed's Chair Nominee Warsh boosted the USD's recovery on Tuesday.
The Euro (EUR) posts marginal gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The pair, however, remains near the bottom of the last few days’ trading range, around 1.1750, as hopes of a positive outcome from the US-Iran peace negotiations vanish.
US President Trump has extended the ceasefire unilaterally until the end of the negotiation process with Iran, but maintains the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been considered an act of war and a violation of the fragile ceasefire by Iranian authorities.
Tehran is keeping the suspense about its presence at the next round of peace talks, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard has stepped up its tone against the US, threatening with “crushing blows” against “the enemy’s remaining assets”, according to a report by Iran’s Tasnim news Agency cited by The Guardian.
The pair dropped nearly 0.4% on Tuesday, hit by downbeat news coming from the Middle East and a stronger US Dollar. Upbeat US Retail Sales data and, above all, a convincing testimony by the Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, at the US Senate confirmation hearings, provided a fresh boost to the Greenback.
Technical Analysis: The bullish trend is losing momentum
EUR/USD maintains the constructive bias from late-March lows intact, but recent price action suggests that bulls might be giving up. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart hint at a neutral to bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index remains below the 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative territory, suggesting a loss of upside pressure.
The pair edges higher on Wednesday but remains capped below 1.1760 so far, which leaves the weekly highs near 1.1790 at a certain distance. Further up, the April 17 high, at the 1.1850 area, seems out of reach this Wednesday.
On the downside, immediate support lies at Tuesday's low, near 1.1720. Below here, the upward trendline support from the March 30 low, now around 1.1700, and the mid-April lows, between 1.1645 and 1.1675, will come into view.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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BNY’s Geoff Yu observes that while global equity indices have rebounded, institutional cash holdings remain below pre-conflict levels across all regions. Emerging Markets (EM) Americas show the highest recovery rate, helped by commodity exposure, while EM APAC (Asia-Pacific) lags due to previously crowded positions in Korean and Taiwanese equities. Yu sees significant sidelined institutional cash that could fuel another risk rally if conflict news improves.
Institutional cash lags price rebound
"Equity market levels may have rebounded strongly globally, but there is a major difference between the price gains and the level of cash holdings by institutional investors. Based on the latter criterion, all regions have yet to recover their holdings from pre-conflict levels. This supports the view, given our custody client bias, that retail investors continue to drive flow interest, whereas institutional investors will require far greater certainty regarding a durable ceasefire."
"Measured by the “recovery rate,” EM Americas are closest to hitting pre-conflict highs, but there wasn’t much movement in the first place. The performance is similar to what we have observed in the region’s FX and fixed income markets."
"EM APAC, led by Korean and Taiwanese equities, is the outlier among all regions. As these markets were the extreme outliers in performance before the conflict, the risk of a large correction was always high, along with the amount of price and flow improvement to recover to pre-conflict levels."
"Institutional investors may be on the sidelines due to geopolitical views rather than earnings outcomes, but there is a real risk that these managers fall meaningfully below benchmark and are “stopped in.”"
"This means that there is significant cash on the sidelines that can fuel another risk rally, but the bar for more “good news” on the conflict is high."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 22:
Markets turn risk-positive midweek following United States (US) President Donald Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran until Tehran submits a proposal and their discussions are concluded. The European economic calendar will feature Consumer Confidence data for April and several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, will be delivering speeches.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.39% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.32% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.27% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.30% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.32% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.23% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.39% | 0.32% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.23% | 0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.03% | -0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
President Trump also noted that the US' blockade on Iranian ports will remain in place as lifting it would undermine the prospects of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked a container ship earlier in the day. After Wall Street's main indexes closed in negative territory on Tuesday, US stock index futures rise between 0.6% and 0.8% in the European morning on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) Index stays in the red below 98.50 after rising about 0.4% on Tuesday.
While testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Kevin Warsh, US President Donald Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), noted that he doesn't agree with the view that the inflation overshoot is due to tariffs and argued that a smaller ballance sheet would help with lowering rates and inflation, while allowing the economy to get stronger.
The data published by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.3% in March from 3% in February, as expected. In this period, the core CPI rose 3.1%, compared to 3.2% in February. GBP/USD largely ignore inflation figures and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day near 1.3520.
EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.1750 in the early European session on Wednesday following Tuesday's 0.4% drop.
USD/JPY moves sideways above 159.00 in the European morning. The data from Japan showed that Exports grew by 11.7% on a yearly basis in March, while Imports increased by 10.9%.
Gold (XAU/USD) lost more than 2% on Tuesday and touched a fresh weekly low below $4,670. XAU/USD stages a rebound and trades slightly above $4,750 early Wednesday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- Gold attracts some buyers as the US-Iran ceasefire extension undermines the USD.
- A standoff over the Strait of Hormuz could limit USD losses and cap the commodity.
- A less dovish Fed also supports the USD and warrants caution for the XAU/USD bulls.
Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh daily high heading into the European session on Wednesday and recovers further from a one-week low, around the $4,669-$4,668 region, touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower in reaction to a temporary extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor offering some support to the commodity. Investors, however, remain worried about prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, expectations for a less dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit deeper USD losses and cap the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow the two countries to continue peace talks to end the war. That said, Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards, reported that Iran had not asked for a ceasefire extension. Furthermore, signs of friction between the US and Iran remained due to the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. In fact, Trump said that he would keep up the pressure on Iran by maintaining the blockade. However, Iran wants the US to lift its blockade before peace talks can restart. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might continue to benefit the USD's reserve currency status.
Meanwhile, comments from Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh at a Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday were interpreted as slightly hawkish. Warsh tried to assure US senators that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms and stated that he had made no promises to President Donald Trump over cutting interest rates. Adding to this, strong US Retail Sales data provided an upbeat view on the strength of the American economy and prompted economists to upgrade their growth estimates for the first quarter. This might further hold back the USD bears on the sidelines, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the Gold price.
Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of geopolitical headlines. Fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran saga might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and produce some trading opportunities around Gold. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that some follow-through buying is needed to back the case for the resumption of the XAU/USD pair's move up witnessed over the past month or so.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bulls await sustained move beyond 50% Fibo./200-EMA confluence
From a technical perspective, last week's failure ahead of the $4,900 mark and the subsequent slide warrant caution for the XAU/USD bulls. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 46 and suggests lacklustre upside momentum. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts could remain gradual while corrective pressures linger.
The precious metal is currently pressing against a confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March downfall. This configuration keeps the near-term bias cautiously bearish. Meanwhile, initial support is the 50.0% level at $4,754.02. A sustained break below this would expose the 38.2% Fibo. retracement floor at $4,595.95 and open a deeper corrective phase if bearish pressure persists.
On the flip side, momentum beyond the $4,760-$4,765 confluence is followed by a more meaningful hurdle at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement near $4,912.08, where sellers would likely reassert control if tested.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every shifts its Iran conflict base case to a longer closure of Hormuz, warning of sustained disruptions to Oil flows and rising physical prices in Asia. He highlights high escalation risks and compares a possible geopolitical realignment to the 1956 Suez Crisis, with broader downside implications for multiple asset classes.
Hormuz closure risk drives energy repricing
"Our new geopolitical base case is of an extended closure of Hormuz (in the range of 2-4 weeks). However, the likelihood of escalation to achieve that de-escalation is very high, which risks more energy supply damage."
"Meanwhile, the US economic blockade of Iran and the de facto Iranian blockade of Hormuz remain in place: critical energy and goods are not going to flow for longer, with exponentially rising economic damage. Indeed, the US says it will ramp up Operation ‘Economic Fury’ at sea and via sanctions. Iran claims it will break its blockade by force, if it persists, which would of course lead us straight to an escalation again."
"Looked at like this, there is nothing for markets to savour about a ‘chicken TACO Tuesday’. Indeed, screen oil prices only softened a little in response to the US ceasefire extension, and the price of physical oil and products in Asia will continue to rise unless Hormuz reopens."
"Yet it’s undeniable the extended ceasefire also points towards a true TACO, which we’ve long made clear would be a geopolitical earthquake on par with the 1956 Suez Crisis. Were that to occur, it might be bearish for energy but could leave Iran in charge of Hormuz, which is less so; or Israel in charge of removing Iran from Hormuz, so far less so. Moreover, it would be bearish for lots of assets markets don’t yet envision."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee declines further against the US Dollar as oil prices rise.
- US President Trump extends a ceasefire for an indefinite period.
- FIIs remain net sellers in the last two trading days.
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its losing streak for the third trading day. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 93.85 as the Indian currency underperforms, with oil prices holding the majority of Tuesday’s gains, despite the extension of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran for an indefinite period.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price is down 1% to near $88.70 after surging almost 5% on Tuesday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
On Tuesday, the Indian currency faced sharp selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) withdrew some measures, such as restrictions on offering non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to resident and non‑resident users, which were meant to support the domestic currency against one-sided depreciation moves.
Trump announces ceasefire extension with Iran
Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that he has extended the two-week ceasefire, which was set to expire on April 22, upon the request of Pakistan, until Washington receives a unified proposal from Tehran. However, Trump clarified that the US blockade of Iranian sea ports will remain intact, a move that is restricting the usual business of Iran and crippling its economy.
Meanwhile, the stance from Iran seems clear that they won’t return to the table with the US for another round of peace talks unless Washington removes the blockade.
The announcement of a ceasefire extension resulted in a broad risk rally; however, oil prices remain significantly higher, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
FIIs turn out net sellers again
Overseas investors remain net sellers in the Indian stock market for the second trading day on Tuesday. In the first two trading days of the week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 2,978.92 crore. The selling amount is higher than the three-day buying of Rs. 1,731.71 crore in the April 15-17 period, which suggests that the interest of foreign investors toward the Indian stock market remains lackluster despite the US-Iran war appears to be shifted to a prolonged standoff.
Kevin Warsh expresses preference for a smaller balance sheet
On Tuesday, US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the successor of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the need for fundamental policy reforms in his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Warsh also expressed a preference for a “smaller balance sheet”, which would mean rates could go lower, inflation get better, economy become stronger.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR extends recovery to near 93.85
USD/INR trades higher at around 93.85 in the opening trade on Wednesday. The price holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 93.18. The short-term uptrend from last week’s lows is supported by this dynamic floor, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 56 suggests moderate positive momentum without overbought conditions, hinting that buyers still retain control in the near term.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 93.18, where a break would threaten the current upswing and open the door to a deeper correction toward the January 28 high at 92.28. Looking up, the price could reclaim the all-time highs above 95.00 if it manages a decisive break above the 94.00 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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