Forex News
On Wednesday, Emmanuel Moulin, the Governor of the Banque de France and a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that “banks can deal with rising rates.”
Moulin added that the solution to France's “financial problems is in France and not in Frankfurt,” hinting that Paris's main issue is fiscal policy, not monetary policy.
Key highlights:
Banks can deal with rising rates
The solution to France's financial problems is in France and not in Frankfurt
No longer risk of loop between banks, sovereigns
Skeptical on the government plan to raise the regulated savings cap
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
MUFG highlights that South Korea’s inflation data show easing headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) but sticky core inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, above consensus. Combined with strong growth and a semiconductor export boom, this should keep expectations for further Bank of Korea (BoK) tightening alive. For South Korean Won (KRW), the supportive rate backdrop and growing trade surplus are offset by uncertain foreign equity flows.
Rates and trade shape Korean Won
"South Korea’s inflation data reinforced the contrast between easing headline inflation and persistent underlying price pressures."
"Headline CPI moderated to 2.8%yoy in October from 2.9%, while core inflation remained at 2.8%yoy, above consensus."
"Combined with strong growth and the semiconductor export boom, sticky core inflation should keep expectations for further BoK tightening alive."
"For KRW, that relatively supportive rate backdrop adds to the fundamental support from Korea’s increasingly large trade surplus, although foreign equity flows remain a pivotal offset."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank’s FX strategists note the Pound rising about 0.4% intraday against the US Dollar, with UK PMI revisions having little impact. Market focus shifts to the Bank of England decision, where a 25bp hike is largely priced and further tightening expected. Technically, they see a constructive setup above the 200-day moving average, with the recovery from mid-October lows targeting the upper 1.36 region.
Pound rally supported by BoE pricing
"The GBP is pacing the EUR’s gains versus the USD, rising around 0.4% intraday. Final UK Services and Composite PMI data for October were revised slightly lower to 52.8 and 52.9 respectively."
"Beyond the USD fallout from the mid-terms, GBP attention will quickly shift to tomorrow’s BoE policy decision. A ¼ point hike is all but fully priced in at this point, with swaps anticipating a further 75bps of tightening from the BoE beyond tomorrow over the next year or so."
"A daily close above the 200-day MA (1.3425) would be constructive for the pound, a close above 1.3470 (61.8% retracement of the GBP’s Aug/Oct slide) more so. The GBP performance support our current thesis that the strong recovery in the GBP from the mid-October low (forming a major weekly reversal in the process) targets a return to the upper 1.36 area in the coming weeks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CHF rebounds from 0.8127, reclaiming 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
- Bearish RSI contrasts with still-intact higher-high and higher-low market structure.
- Break below 0.8127 exposes 0.8100 and 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
The USD/CHF extended its losses during the North American session, hitting a two-month low of 0.8127 earlier in the day as traders dumped the US Dollar in favor of other haven assets like the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair edges down 0.45% and trades at 0.8172.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Even though a previous support trendline was broken, the market structure is neutral to bullish-biased. The USD/CHF fell below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8227 last Monday and has since consolidated between that level and the 100-day SMA at 0.8159.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, but the USD/CHF market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows remains intact.
For a bullish recovery, buyers must push USD/CHF above the 50-day SMA at 0.8227. In that outcome, the potential move back to the October 28 swing high of 0.8313 is on the cards. Once breached, the next stop is the October 14 high at 0.8395, immediately followed by 0.8400.
On the downside, bears must push the USD/CHF below the day’s low of 0.8127. After this, sellers would look for a push below 0.8100 on its way towards the 200-day SMA at 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight that the People’s Bank of China raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to slow rapid CNY gains after a 13-session winning streak. They stress the move is counter-cyclical, aimed at preserving two-way flexibility rather than reversing the appreciation trend, and note USD/CNY and USD/CNH both bounced to 6.67 on the announcement.
PBoC leans against rapid CNY gains
"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) moved to cool CNY appreciation yesterday, raising the foreign-currency reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR) by 2%-points to 6%, effective 15 November. The announcement prompted a reversal in CNY following 13 consecutive sessions of gains, the longest winning streak since 1996."
"The move was unexpected, reinforcing the PBoC's resistance to rapid currency appreciation. The gap between the PBoC’s daily fixing at 6.7150 and our estimated fixing rate of 6.6516 widened to 634 pips, the largest divergence since 10 September."
"The mechanics of the hike work by forcing banks to lock up a larger share of FX deposits, draining dollar liquidity from the onshore system and easing upward pressure on CNY. The move mirrors a similar playbook deployed in 2021, when the PBoC raised the FX RRR twice to lean against yuan strength."
"However, the measure is likely to slow the pace of appreciation than reverse the underlying trend, which remains supported by the large trade surplus."
"The FX RRR hike is widely read as a counter-cyclical signal rather than a directional reversal. The PBoC appears intent on preserving two-way flexibility and preventing appreciation expectations from becoming self-reinforcing, particularly as global investors have begun joining domestic exporters on the yuan-buying side. Further PBoC action, such as lowering the macro-prudential adjustment parameters, cannot be ruled out if appreciation pressures resume."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD holds gains as Democrats’ congressional victory sparks US Dollar selling.
- Resilient US employment and services data helps the Greenback recover some ground.
- Markets expect both the Fed and ECB to raise interest rates in December.
EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Wednesday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness following the US midterm election results. However, the pair eases from an intraday high of 1.1273 as resilient US economic data helps the Greenback regain some ground. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1235, up 0.35% on the day.
Democrats have seized control of both houses of Congress, raising the risk of political gridlock in Washington and triggering heavy selling pressure on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, down 0.40% on the day. The index has recovered from an intraday low of 101.21, its weakest level since September 30.
Meanwhile, Oil prices fall sharply as traders speculate that a Democratic-controlled Congress could restrict funding for Trump’s military campaign against Iran and increase pressure to end the conflict. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $87 a barrel, down 9% on the day.
Cheaper Oil could offer some relief to the Eurozone economy by lowering energy import costs while also easing inflation pressures globally. However, the lack of a clear path to a negotiated end to the conflict keeps uncertainty alive and leaves Oil prices vulnerable to sharp swings.
On the data front, the ADP report showed private-sector employment increased by 86K in October, beating expectations of 69K, while September’s gain was revised down to 86K from 90K. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 54.5 from 54.9, slightly below the 54.8 forecast but still indicating expansion.
The data leaves room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish stance as policymakers work to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of another rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Attention now turns to weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
In the Eurozone, preliminary October inflation data released earlier in the day keeps a December rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in play. Headline inflation rose to 4.0% YoY from 3.8%, while core inflation held at 2.5%, leaving both measures above the ECB’s 2% target.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot warned on Tuesday that “core inflation, second-round effects will likely pick up,” adding that the central bank “may have to approach [the] 2% goal more often from above.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.40% | -0.45% | -0.25% | -0.33% | -0.70% | -0.31% | -0.50% | |
| EUR | 0.40% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.06% | -0.32% | 0.09% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.15% | -0.26% | 0.13% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.44% | -0.05% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | 0.33% | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.06% | -0.38% | 0.01% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.70% | 0.32% | 0.26% | 0.44% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | -0.09% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.38% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.19% | -0.20% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) has traded broadly on the back foot on Wednesday, at some point retreating to the area of five-week lows as market participants were assessing the Democrats’ stunning victory at the US midterm elections.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to just pips away from the 101.00 contention zone, before attempting a lacklustre recovery. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due alongside Challenger Job Cuts.
EUR/USD has flirted with multi-week tops around 1.1270, extending its weekly recovery in response to the strong decline in the US Dollar across the board. The S&P Global Construction PMI in Germany and the Eurozone is expected, seconded by Germany’s Factory Orders and Producer Prices in the broader Euroland.
GBP/USD has clinched its sixth consecutive daily advance, briefly piercing the 1.3500 barrier for the first time since mid-September. The BoE meets and is expected to raise its policy rate to 4.00%. Data-wise, the S&P Global Construction PMI will be the only release of note.
USD/JPY has reversed two daily upticks in a row, trading with modest losses after once again faltering around 158.80. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due, along with the BoJ Minutes and a 10-Year JGB Auction.
AUD/USD has bounced off the area of three-week lows, reclaiming the key 0.7000 yardstick and a tad above. Next on tap in Oz will be the final prints of the Building Permits and Private House Approvals on November 9.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have added to the weekly correction, receding to the area of three-week lows near the $91.00 mark per barrel as traders continued to assess the likelihood of a potential end to the US-Iran crisis following the Democrats’ win at the US midterm elections.
Gold has reclaimed the area beyond the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce, hitting at the same time fresh four-day highs in response to the marked sell-off in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.
Scotiabank analysts say the Euro (EUR) is firmer near 1.1240, slightly off intraday highs around 1.1265, with gains broadly tracking the softer US Dollar (USD) after the US midterms. Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) was confirmed at 4.0% year-on-year, and several European Central Bank (ECB) officials signaled that a December rate hike is likely, while technicians see a broadly positive tone but stress the need for a clear break above 1.1275.
ECB rhetoric keeps December hike live
"The EUR is firmer but trading a little off the peaks made earlier in the day around the 1.1265 zone. EUR gains are broadly in line with the softer USD tone that has emerged in the wake of the US mid-term results."
"Eurozone October CPI was confirmed at 4.0% Y/Y (2.5% for core) while final Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs were marked down slightly to 51.4 and 51.7 respectively on downward revisions to French data."
"ECB Governor Nagel said Tuesday the inflation picture has worsened and that policy would probably have to be tightened in December. His colleague Sleijpen said the Iran shock was more persistent than had been thought – although there were no second-round inflation effects visible at this point – while Governor Kocher said a December rate hike was likely unless circumstances change."
"Neutral/bullish – Firm gains intraday have stalled just shy of noted resistance at 1.1275. Positive price action overall this week so far plus the resilient EUR support in the low 1.11 zone in recent weeks maintain a broadly positive technical undertone for the EUR. But spot needs a clear push above 1.1275 to progress higher and take a run at 1.1350/1.14."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD rebounds sharply and climbs above $52.00.
- RSI approaches neutral territory, signaling strengthening buying momentum despite the downtrend.
- A break above $55.00 exposes $58.18 and SMA resistance near $61.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) price soars almost $3, or close to 5.50%, on Wednesday as traders digest the results of the US midterm elections, which resulted in a Democratic sweep aimed at countering US President Donald Trump. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $52.39 after jumping off daily lows of $48.96.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD remains bearish, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has posted a notable recovery, about to surpass the 40 threshold and approach its 50 neutral level. Despite this, the RSI is still bearish.
Also, the Silver spot price remains below the confluence of the 50- and 100-day SMAs, each at $60.65 and $60.99, an area that has been defended by sellers since late September.
For a bullish reversal to materialize, buyers must overcome the $55.00 psychological mark. Once done, it clears the path to the October 21 daily high of $58.18. Above lies the confluence of the 50- and 100-day SMAs.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to push prices below the $50.00 mark. Below is the November 3 swing low of $48.65, before bears eye the psychological $45.00 support.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold rallies above $4,000 after rebounding from daily lows of $3,919.
- US 10-year Treasury yields drop six basis points to 4.904%.
- December Fed hike odds remain elevated at 79% ahead of NFP.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallied near 3% on Wednesday as the Greenback tumbled following the Democrats' sweep in the US midterm elections. Markets now look ahead to the release of October’s Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday. The XAU/USD trades at $4,047, after bouncing off daily lows of $3,919.
XAU/USD surges nearly 3% as US Dollar weakness, falling Treasury yields fuel Bullion's recovery
Wall Street is trading in the green, reversing some of its earlier losses. Fears of tighter regulation of artificial intelligence (AI), including a potential ban on data centers, could weigh on the economy, with the preliminary Q3 US GDP reading hitting the 3% threshold.
The depreciation of the US Dollar (USD) boosted the appetite for Bullion, which has recovered after hitting a year-to-date (YTD) low on October 30 at $3,870.
Analysts have argued that a Democratic-dominated Congress could be negative for GDP since some of the administration's proposals might get blocked, possibly leading to an economic slowdown.
US data showed that services-sector business activity continued to expand, although at a slower pace. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October came in softer than expected at 54.5, down from 54.9 a month earlier and below the 54.8 estimate. Within the survey, the employment sub-component rose, while new orders and prices paid declined but remained in expansionary territory.
The October ADP Employment Change report showed private hiring holding steady as companies added 86K workers — above the 69K forecast.
Oil prices edged lower after the election amid growing expectations that the US Congress may strip US President Trump of his war powers, but not until the Democratic wave takes over in January 2027. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down more than 8% at $87.50 per barrel.
In the meantime, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in December are at 79% for a 25-basis-point move. This is negative for Gold, which usually performs well amid low-interest-rate scenarios.
The fall of US Treasury yields, however, supports Gold’s rise. The US 10-year Treasury note drops by 6 basis points, yielding 4.904%.
Traders' eyes shift to the release of jobless claims and speeches by Fed officials on Thursday, followed by the highlight on Friday: the release of Nonfarm Payrolls data.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reclaims $4,000, eyes on $4,100
Per market structure, the Gold trend remains downward, but buyers are gaining momentum as the price nears a key resistance trendline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to turn bullish after staging a parabolic jump toward its 50-neutral level.
If XAU/USD reclaims $4,100, this clears the path to challenge the confluence of the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,204 and $4,215, respectively. Once cleared, the next stop is the 200-day SMA at $4,474.
For a bearish continuation, Gold must drop below $4,000. A breach of the latter will expose the November 3 high-turned-support at $3,971, then the October 30 year-to-date low of $3,879, and finally the April 22, 2025 daily high-turned-support at $3,500.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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