Forex News
- Silver regains some positive traction, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old range.
- The technical setup warrants caution for bullish traders before positioning for further gains.
- A move beyond the $78.25-$78.45 confluence is needed to negate the negative outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $75.70-$75.75 zone, up over 1% for the day. The white metal, however, remains confined in a multi-day-old range, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders.
Looking at the broader picture, the XAG/USD has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the May monthly peak. Moreover, the commodity holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal support breakpoint, which now coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level. This keeps a bearish near-term bias intact, making it prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the said confluence before positioning for any further appreciating move.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 suggests only modest, directionless momentum. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hovering slightly positive and hints at a fragile attempt to stabilize within a broader capped structure. This, in turn, suggests that the 100-period SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. confluence, around the $78.25-$78.45 area, might continue to act as a strong barrier for the XAG/USD pair.
A sustained strength beyond, however, would open the way toward further hurdles at the 50.0% level at $80.50 and deeper Fibo. resistances at $82.56 and $85.48 before the cycle high zone near $89.20. On the downside, structural support is only clearly defined at the Fibo. anchor around $71.81, where buyers could attempt to build a more solid base if the current consolidation resolves lower.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD posts modest gains near 1.3460 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- The potential upside for the pair might be limited as the status of Iran's peace talks remains unclear.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, stronger than expected.
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3460 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the major pair as Iran has reportedly withdrawn from negotiations with the US. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding Middle East peace talks.
Iran’s state media said Tehran on Monday had suspended talks over Israel’s actions in Lebanon. Separately, US President Donald Trump stated that he believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable “over the next week.” Mixed signals and uncertainty in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair in the near term.
Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 54 in May from 52.7 in April. This figure came in better than the market expectation of 53.0.
On the UK’s front, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that the UK central bank is in no rush to raise interest rates while the outcome of the Iran war remains uncertain and the UK’s growth rate stays weak. Money market futures now imply 32 basis points (bps) of tightening this year, one quarter-point hike, and roughly a 30% chance of a second, according to Reuters.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CAD appreciates as lower oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
- Oil prices may regain their ground as Iran halts indirect negotiations with the United States.
- US Dollar gains as renewed Middle East tensions fuel inflation fears and expectations of elevated Federal Reserve interest rates.
USD/CAD extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 1.3840 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles on lower oil prices. However, Crude oil prices may regain their ground as Tasnim news agency indicated that Tehran has halted indirect negotiations with the United States.
According to the report, Iran and its "Resistance Front" allies, spanning Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, have established an agenda to completely block the critical Strait of Hormuz and activate additional fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a means to punish Israel and its supporters.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel global inflation concerns and stoke expectations of elevated Federal Reserve policy rates. This macroeconomic backdrop is providing strong support to the US Dollar (USD), subsequently keeping the USD/CAD pair higher.
Reflecting these persistent inflationary pressures, financial markets are now pricing in a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike before the year ends, with the CME FedWatch tool currently indicating a 39% probability of a quarter-point increase in December.
However, US President Donald Trump offered a more optimistic diplomatic outlook, announcing that an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz could be reached "over the next week."
Trump’s comments followed his direct intervention to halt a sudden military flare-up between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon. While acknowledging that several unresolved details remain on the table, Trump expressed confidence in the ongoing negotiations, noting that he had already swiftly resolved a diplomatic "glitch" that previously threatened to derail progress.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8187 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8167 and 6.7720 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board member Ian Harper said on Tuesday that inflation persistence remains a significant issue. Harper added that market indicators of inflation expectations rise, causing concern.
Key quotes
Inflation persistence remains a significant issue.
Market indicators of inflation expectations rise, causing concern.Market reaction
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.10% higher on the day to trade at 0.7165.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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