Forex News
- EUR/JPY holds positive ground around 177.10 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The negative tone of the cross remains intact below the 100-day, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The initial support level to watch is 175.65; the immediate resistance level emerges at 178.35.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 177.10 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that she was prepared to take action in the currency market again if needed following hotter US inflation figures. She emphasized that there has been no change in the stance of the US and Japan since their joint intervention to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY) in July.
On Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch stated that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further. Wunsch said that "we are probably going to have to hike again" due to inflation that's approaching 4%, but noted there is uncertainty on the energy front and with AI.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that France should solve its debt woes through fiscal consolidation, damping speculation about whether the central bank might start buying French bonds to contain yields.
France risk premia anchored by political fragmentation and Le Pen scenario
Analysts at ABN Amro frame the political backdrop as a key driver of France’s risk profile, noting that “as things currently stand it appears as if Le Pen will win the race to be France’s next President.” They highlight Rabo’s economists’ baseline that a Le Pen presidency would likely be marked by “a fractious relationship with the EU regarding policymaking” while she is still expected “to maintain her existing position of neither wanting to disband the EU entirely nor pursue an Euro exit.”
Looking beyond the presidential race, ABN Amro also underscores the structural nature of France’s political fragmentation. In their view, “it seems likely that no political grouping will emerge with an absolute majority if elections are held in H1 2027.” They argue this would simply entrench the current environment of “low government stability/ ability to pass a budget/ policy coherence/ reform capacity,” which they describe as “clearly a concern because, in a situation of unchanged government policy, France’s budget deficit is set to significantly deteriorate over the upcoming two years.”
Technical Analysis: EUR/JPY keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY remains under clear bearish pressure as spot holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, keeping price confined to the lower half of the recent volatility envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 37.56 is recovering from oversold territory but still below the 50 line, which only mildly tempers the downside bias rather than signaling a sustainable base.
On the downside, the lower limit of Bollinger band at 175.65 offers the next notable support zone. A daily close beneath this level would reopen the path toward the October 20 low, 2025 of 175.34, followed by the October 2, 2025 low of 172.27.
On the bright side, the first upside barrier emerges at the Bollinger middle band at 178.35, en route to the 180.00 psychological level. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to
the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 181.00 and then the 100-day SMA at 183.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that a prolonged war in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes, or critical infrastructure pose the biggest risk to regional and global economies.
Additional takeaways
Biggest risk is prolonged conflict.
Middle East war causes highly uneven economic shock across region, severe strain on directly affected states.
Pre-war surpluses, alternative paths and demand shifts helped mitigate oil output shock, but cushions are limited.
IMF urges countries to rebuild buffers, prioritize price stability, tighter monetary policies and prudent fiscal measures.
Inventories are lower, spare capacity tighter, fresh disruption could trigger bigger price shifts.
Predicts 1.3% shrinkage in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan area in 2026 vs 3.3% expansion in 2025.
Oil exporters hit by war to face sharp contraction in 2026, rebound in 2027, but output stays below pre-war forecasts.
Robust but uneven recovery forecast in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region by 2027, growth to reach 6.6%.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
- GBP/USD attracts strong buyers on Thursday as a sharp fall in US bond yields weighs on the USD.
- Comments from BoE’s Pill temper aggressive rate hike bets, capping further upside for the GBP.
- A hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties limit USD losses, warranting caution for GBP bulls.
The GBP/USD pair is seen building on the overnight bounce from the 1.3135 area, or the year-to-date low, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices stick to strong intraday gains around mid-1.3200s and remain supported by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
Despite Wednesday's hot US consumer inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady at its October policy meeting. Adding to this, a Bloomberg report suggests that China seems to be moving US securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, triggering a steep decline in US bond yields. This, in turn, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, further away from an 18-month high, which, in turn, is seen as supporting the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Wednesday that he is a bit more skeptical about market pricing of four rate hikes over the next year and added on Thursday that we should not give the impression that a raise now would be the start of a series of increases. The comments temper market expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the BoE, keeping a lid on the British Pound (GBP). Furthermore, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating Middle East tensions limit USD losses, capping the GBP/USD pair.
Pill tempers rate hike expectations, limiting upside for Pound
The drop in the FXS Speechtracker score to 3/10 from a historic 6.4/10 signals a clear dovish shift in Pill’s tone. By stressing that a potential hike “should not give impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increases,” Pill effectively downplays the prospect of a sustained tightening cycle, capping support for the Pound.
This framing suggests any future move would be more of a one-off adjustment than the start of a new hiking phase, reducing the appeal of Pound carry trades versus the Dollar and Euro. For FX markets, the speech points to limited upside for the Pound and raises the risk of a softer path ahead if data fail to justify repeated tightening.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid energy-driven inflation risks. Adding to this, geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, and intensifying fighting between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, could act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck. This might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets on the GBP/USD pair as traders look to Thursday's economic data.
The UK monthly GDP print will be published later today, along with Goods Trade Balance data and Industrial Production figures. The focus, however, will be on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release during the early North American session. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked at for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair continues with its struggle to make it through the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and holds a capped beneath a horizontal barrier near 1.3300. This suggests upside attempts are struggling against overhead supply.
A sustained break above the said handle would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way toward higher levels on the four-hour chart, while failure to do so keeps the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to further consolidation or pullbacks below 1.3200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Oct 15, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -0.1%
Previous: 0.4%
Source: Office for National Statistics
- Silver rises as falling crude oil prices, lower bond yields, and a weaker dollar eased broader market pressure.
- Hotter US CPI data boosted expectations for a potential Fed interest rate hike at the October FOMC meeting.
- September headline CPI reached 3.7% annually, while core CPI rose 2.6%, both exceeding market forecasts.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after three days of losses, trading around $56.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. Non-yielding Silver gained ground as crude oil prices declined and pressure across other markets eased. A softer US dollar and retreating bond yields provided additional support to precious metals, creating a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets.
However, a hotter-than-anticipated US inflation report soon tempered these gains. The data reinforced expectations for a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstering arguments for an interest rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 27–28. Following the release, futures traders raised the probability of a rate hike at the late-October meeting to approximately 31.6%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The economic pressure was detailed in a report released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, climbed 0.6% month-over-month in September, pushing the 12-month headline rate to 3.7%. Both metrics came in higher than economists' forecasts of 0.6% and 3.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, advanced 0.3% for the month and rose 2.6% on an annual basis, exceeding market estimates of 0.2% and 2.5%.
Daly leans hawkish but urges patience as markets digest CPI
Fed’s Daly delivers a moderately more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.8 versus a 6.1 historical average, signaling firmer conviction on the need for possible further tightening. The emphasis that gas-driven headline CPI is rising while core inflation remains stubborn, alongside remarks that more rate hikes are likely but timing should be deliberate, underscores a cautious hawkish stance that prioritizes clear communication and market stability over rapid action. The focus on persistent above-target inflation risks, a steady labor market, and the reassurance that markets have calmed after the CPI shock reinforces a message of patience within a still price-stability-focused framework.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.84 points to 128.17, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, despite a slight softening in incremental tone, the overall policy backdrop remains hawkish, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker both pointing to a Federal Reserve still biased toward further tightening if inflation shocks persist.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $56.00, extending a bearish phase as it holds well below the nine‑ and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap the upside and frame a deteriorating trend structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.36 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent selling pressure, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 128.17 suggests still‑elevated policy uncertainty that may continue to weigh on silver in the near term.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the short‑term EMA at $58.80, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to relieve immediate downside pressure. Beyond that, the 50‑day EMA at $62.61 represents a more significant barrier; as long as price trades beneath this cluster of moving averages, rallies are likely to be sold into, keeping the bearish bias intact in the coming sessions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US military has prepared new attack plans that could involve deploying the so-called “mother of All Bombs” against Iran’s energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities if President Donald Trump orders a resumption of military operations, either before or after the midterm elections, CNN reported on Thursday.
The first use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB), the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, in the conflict with Iran would mark a notable escalation. However, several sources familiar with internal military discussions about its potential deployment have questioned whether the weapon would effectively achieve Trump’s stated strategic objectives or tip the balance of the war.
Separately on geopolitics, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv will restart long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to the Financial Times. The move came amid heightened geopolitical friction between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.44% on the day at $92.73.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,659.52 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,535.66 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,656.50 per tola from INR 146,213.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,659.52 |
10 Grams | 126,593.50 |
Tola | 147,656.50 |
Troy Ounce | 393,748.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill, who has voted for a quarter-point interest rate hike in recent months, said on Thursday that we should not give impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increases.
On Wednesday, Pill stated that he was more sceptical about market pricing of four increases to borrowing costs by the BoE over the next year.
Key quotes
Should not give impression that a hike now would be the start of a series of increases
BoE’s Pill tempers rate hike expectations, limiting GBP upside
The drop in the FXS Speechtracker score to 3/10 from a historic 6.4/10 signals a clear dovish shift in tone from Bank of England Chief Economist Pill. By stressing that a hike now should not be seen as the start of a series of increases, Pill effectively pushes back against expectations of a sustained tightening cycle, capping immediate GBP support.
This remark suggests the Bank of England is more focused on managing market expectations than on launching an aggressive policy path, which softens the perceived policy trajectory. For FX, the message reduces the appeal of GBP versus the Dollar and Euro, as investors may see any potential hike as a one-off adjustment rather than the beginning of a new bullish rate trend.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is up 0.39% on the day at 1.3245.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- NZD/USD catches fresh bids as a sharp fall in US bond yields drags the USD away from an 18-month top.
- Hawkish comments from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway provide an additional boost to the NZD.
- Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks could limit USD losses as the focus now shifts to the US PPI report.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday, building on the previous day's late rebound from the 0.5565 region, or its lowest level since April 2025. The momentum lifts spot prices to a nearly two-week top, around the 0.5635 zone, and is supported by a combination of factors.
Despite Wednesday's hot US consumer inflation figures, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady at its October policy meeting. Adding to this, a Bloomberg report suggests that China seems to be moving US securities to non-US custodian banks in other countries, triggering a steep decline in US bond yields. This, in turn, prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and drags it away from an 18-month high, offering some support to the NZD/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway said that the late-October rate decision is completely open and that the central bank still sees the OCR as most likely to rise, though it has not decided on timing. This, in turn, provides an additional boost to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and contributes to the bid tone surrounding the NZD/USD pair. That said, the USD corrective slide is likely to be limited, warranting some caution before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices underpin prospects for further Fed tightening. Adding to this, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which could support the safe-haven buck and cap the NZD/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the North American session, for some impetus. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The NZD/USD pair struggles to build on intraday gains beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, spot prices keep a bearish near-term tone beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting that any further move up is likely to face supply into the mid-0.5600s.
Further up, the 50.0% retracement at 0.5779 and the 61.8% level at 0.5829 build a dense cap ahead of 0.5901 and 0.5992. On the downside, the Fibonacci anchor at 0.5566 is the next notable support, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.64% | -0.43% | -0.41% | -0.26% | 0.27% | -0.59% | -0.77% | |
| EUR | 0.64% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.35% | 0.95% | 0.04% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.70% | -0.16% | -0.36% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.70% | -0.21% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.14% | 0.54% | -0.33% | -0.51% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.95% | -0.70% | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.87% | -1.05% | |
| NZD | 0.59% | -0.04% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.87% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.77% | 0.14% | 0.36% | 0.37% | 0.51% | 1.05% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The US Dollar Index faces intense selling pressure in the aftermath of the US inflation data for September.
- Both US headline and core inflation figures rose at a faster-than-expected pace.
- The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in October have increased marginally after the US CPI data release.
The US Dollar (USD) underperforms its major currency peers on Thursday as hot United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has failed to bring a meaningful impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.61% | -0.43% | -0.39% | -0.23% | 0.22% | -0.58% | -0.76% | |
| EUR | 0.61% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.35% | 0.86% | 0.00% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.17% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.65% | -0.16% | -0.34% | |
| JPY | 0.39% | -0.19% | -0.02% | 0.15% | 0.64% | -0.21% | -0.38% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | -0.35% | -0.18% | -0.15% | 0.46% | -0.34% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.86% | -0.65% | -0.64% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.00% | |
| NZD | 0.58% | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.34% | 0.81% | -0.19% | |
| CHF | 0.76% | 0.16% | 0.34% | 0.38% | 0.53% | 1.00% | 0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.6% lower to near 101.90. The DXY has retreated sharply from its 18-month high of 102.95 posted on Wednesday.
The US CPI report showed that both headline and core inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively.
However, the follow-up impact of hot US CPI report on Fed’s monetary policy expectations appears to be limited. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in the policy meeting later this meeting have increased marginally to 27% from 22% seen before the data release.
US Bond Yields are also facing significant selling pressure following the US inflation report release. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have extended their correction to near 5.10%.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 101.99, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 102.11. The short-term trend is capped by this nearby dynamic barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.31 shows positive but moderating momentum, hinting that bulls are losing some traction after the recent overbought readings seen earlier in the month.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 9-period EMA near 102.11, and a sustained break above this level would ease the current downside pressure and open the way for a broader recovery phase. With no clear technical supports derived from the provided dataset, any pullbacks from current levels would likely be driven by momentum cooling rather than well-defined structural floors, leaving the index vulnerable to corrective dips while it remains capped below the short-term EMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Gold catches fresh bids as retreating US bond yields drag the USD away from an 18-month top.
- Energy-driven inflation risks keep Fed rate hike bets in play, warranting caution for USD bears.
- Geopolitical uncertainties could further support the safe-haven buck ahead of the US PPI report.
Gold (XAU/USD) gains some meaningful positive traction on Thursday and rallies back above $4,150 during the Asian session, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low, touched the previous day. The initial aggressive market reaction to hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures turned out to be short-lived amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, which prompted some follow-through US Dollar (USD) profit-taking and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated from 3.4% to 3.7% over the 12 months through September, surpassing consensus estimates. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 2.6% last month, up from 2.4% in August. The data pointed to broadening price pressures, forcing investors to reassess the Fed's policy path. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will probably need to raise interest rates further, though she signalled that there is no need to do so at the October meeting.
Daly leans hawkish but urges patience as markets digest CPI
The FXS Speechtracker score of 6.8/10 marks a modest hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 6.1/10, underscoring a stance that keeps further rate hikes firmly on the table. Daly’s emphasis that gas-driven headline CPI is rising while core inflation remains stubborn, combined with the view that more tightening is likely but should not be rushed, signals a preference for data-dependent patience rather than immediate action. The focus on persistent above-target inflation risks, a steady labor market, and the reassurance that markets now better understand the Fed’s reaction function reinforces a carefully hawkish tone anchored in clear communication and accountability.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.84 points to 128.17, indicating a slight pullback in hawkish intensity even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that while the Fed tone is still clearly hawkish, the incremental shift reflects a more measured, deliberate approach to future policy moves rather than an escalation in Dollar-supportive rhetoric.
Nevertheless, market participants are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. Adding to this, escalating tensions in the Middle East could limit the ongoing USD corrective decline from its highest level since April 2025. In the latest developments, a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday following a projectile attack, while the Iran-backed Houthi group continued launching drone and missile strikes across Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, the Houthis vowed to continue targeting Saudi Arabia's international airport and oil infrastructure in the coming days in response to Saudi Arabia's aggression against Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Separately, Russia accused Ukraine of launching strikes against two oil refineries, which it claims violated an energy ceasefire recently brokered by US President Donald Trump. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets on gold. The focus now shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due for release later today.
Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the yellow metal. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop and the recent repeated failures to sustain a move above $4,200 make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has formed a near-term bottom around the $4,075-$4,065 region.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair keeps a capped tone below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative and below its signal line, with a contracting histogram, which suggests lingering downside pressure despite some stabilization in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the neutral 50 area.
Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 100-period SMA near $4,180 might confront some resistance near the $4,215-$4,220 horizontal zone. A sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to higher levels. On the flip side, the $4,100 mark could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $4,075-$4,065 region, which, if broken, will reaffirm the negative bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.62% | -0.43% | -0.38% | -0.23% | 0.23% | -0.57% | -0.79% | |
| EUR | 0.62% | 0.18% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.88% | 0.02% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | -0.18% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.66% | -0.16% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 0.38% | -0.25% | -0.06% | 0.13% | 0.62% | -0.23% | -0.42% | |
| CAD | 0.23% | -0.36% | -0.23% | -0.13% | 0.46% | -0.34% | -0.55% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.88% | -0.66% | -0.62% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.02% | |
| NZD | 0.57% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.23% | 0.34% | 0.81% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.37% | 0.42% | 0.55% | 1.02% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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