Forex News
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Henry Hao note that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept benchmark lending rates at record lows for an 11th straight month, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%. Strong 5% year-on-year Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has reduced pressure for broad rate cuts, while USD/CNY and USD/CNH remain near their strongest levels since early 2023.
PBoC holds LPR as growth supports
"The People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged at record lows for the 11th consecutive month in April. Matching market expectations, the central bank held the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.0% and the mortgage-linked five-year LPR at 3.5%."
"This decision to stand pat follows the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP expansion of 5% yoy."
"With the economy expanding at the upper end of Beijing's 4.5% to 5% annual growth target, the PBoC has the flexibility to pause and assess the ongoing recovery trajectory."
"Moving forward, the central bank has committed to maintaining a supportive and moderately loose policy stance to shore up domestic activity while preserving currency stability."
"In FX, USD/CNY and USD/CNH were flat at around 6.82 yesterday, remaining near their strongest levels since early 2023."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver breaks the trendline and the 100-day SMA, confirming a bearish reversal.
- RSI weakens further, signaling strong downside momentum continuation.
- Break below $74 exposes $70 and $64.10 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price tanks nearly 3.50% on Tuesday, clearing a key support trendline after printing a doji pattern on Monday, as markets remained uncertain about the outcome of US-Iran talks. Heightened tensions and a ceasefire about to expire are pushing the precious metals segment into a tailspin. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $77.02.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical Outlook
Silver is shifting bearishly as price action cleared the 100-day SMA at $77.79 and broke a support trendline drawn from the March 23 lows, exacerbating a drop initially towards the 20-day SMA at $74.72.
Once XAG/USD clears $74, the next support would be the $70 figure, followed by the February 6 swing low of $64.10. A breach of the latter could challenge the March 23 low of $61.02.
On the upside, if Silver regains the $78.50 level, bullish momentum could build toward a near-term retest of $80. Beyond that, the next hurdle is the April 1 high at $83.05. A break above would expose further resistance at the March 13 high of $85.44, followed by the March 12 peak at $87.43 and the March 11 high at $89.42, ahead of the $90 psychological level.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
BNY’s Bob Savage notes that New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 0.9% q/q, keeping annual inflation at 3.1%, with strong non-tradeable components such as electricity and local authority rates. The NZIER (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research) survey shows a sharp drop in business confidence as geopolitical tensions lift fuel costs. The report indicates expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to start tightening with a 25 bp OCR (Official Cash Rate) hike in July.
Inflation persistence and RBNZ tightening risk
"New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% q/q and 3.1% y/y in Q1 vs. 0.6% q/q, 3.1% in Q4 2025. Key q/q price increases included petrol (+3.5%), pharmaceuticals (+17.7%) and confectionery (+6.2%), while international air transport (-7.0%) and prepaid overseas accommodation (-4.0%) declined."
"Non-tradeable inflation rose 1.1% q/q 3.5% y/y (Q4 25: 0.7% q/q, 3.5% y/y), driven by electricity (+12.5%) and local authority rates (+8.8%). NZX 50 +0.13% to 12932, NZDUSD +0.477% to 0.5908, 10y NZGB +2.6bp to 4.617%."
"New Zealand’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for Q1 showed a sharp decline in business confidence, with only a net 1% of firms expecting improved economic conditions, down from 39% in Q4 2025. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and resulting shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted supply chains and caused fuel prices to surge, increasing caution among firms."
"Cost pressures are persisting, but inflation risks are currently contained. The RBNZ is expected to start tightening monetary policy with a 25bp OCR hike in July."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, April 22:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged near the 98.40 area, even as Treasury yields edge lower and safe-haven demand fades slightly amid a fragile geopolitical backdrop.
At the same time, political pressure on monetary policy is back in focus. United States (US) President Donald Trump openly called for lower interest rates, stating in an interview with CNBC that he would be “disappointed” if Federal Reserve (Fed) chair nominee Kevin Warsh did not cut rates “right away” after taking office as the next Fed chair.
Warsh, for his part, acknowledged that “all presidents” tend to favor lower rates but stressed that the independence of the Fed ultimately depends on the institution itself. He downplayed inflation risks tied to tariffs, arguing that price pressures have “improved somewhat,” and suggested that a smaller balance sheet could allow for lower rates, better inflation dynamics, and stronger economic growth.
He also pushed back against current Fed communication practices, noting he does not believe in forward guidance and criticizing the number of policymakers signaling rate paths in advance. Warsh called for structural changes at the Fed, including new tools, revamped communication strategies, and a revised inflation framework, arguing that existing data used to assess inflation is “quite imperfect.”
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stepping back from an early surge amid rising yields and rate-cut expectations, though downside remains limited by lingering risk aversion.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.47% | 0.32% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.47% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.34% | -0.04% | -0.40% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.32% | 0.14% | 0.09% | -0.17% | 0.10% | -0.25% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.40% | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.25% | 0.04% | -0.36% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.34% | 0.17% | 0.25% | 0.29% | -0.10% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.44% | 0.04% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.39% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | 0.40% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.39% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.21% | 0.06% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD fell toward the 1.1740 zone, constrained by mixed Eurozone data and fragile risk conditions.
GBP/USD is also free-falling near 1.3490 as markets reassess risk exposure. In the three months ending February, the ILO Unemployment Rate printed at 4.9%, easing from the previous 5.2% and also below market expectations
USD/JPY is climbing toward the 159.40 area, with the Japanese Yen finding support from lower US yields and residual safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
AUD/USD is trading on the back foot around the 0.7150 region as the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stronger. Investors now look ahead to the Australian PMIs data for further direction.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is stabilizing near recent range highs near 89.65 as ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and supply risks keep prices supported despite no fresh escalation.
Gold (XAU/USD) is losing ground around the $4,700 region, pressured by mild easing in safe-haven demand and shifting rate expectations, although geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, April 22:
- United Kingdom Inflation Data March
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence April Prel
- Australia S&P Global PMIs April Prel
Thursday, April 23:
- Eurozone ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
- France HCOB PMIs April Prel
- Germany HCOB PMIs April Prel
- Eurozone HCOB PMIs April Prel
- United Kingdom S&P Global PMIs April Prel
- United States Initial Jobless Claims
- United States S&P Global PMIs April Prel
- United States New Home Sales March
- United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence April
- Japan Inflation Data March
Friday, April 24:
- United Kingdom Retail Sales March
- Germany IFO Survey April
- Canada Retail Sales February
- United States Michigan Data April
- United States Inflation Expectations April
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold drops sharply as Iran talks stalled and haven demand faded.
- A firmer US Dollar and higher Treasury yields added pressure on bullion prices.
- Strong US data and surging oil reinforced a higher-for-longer Fed view.
Gold (XAU/USD) price tumbles by more than 2% on Tuesday amid a lack of confirmation of a second round of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan. Conversely, Crude Oil prices edged higher, a tailwind for the Greenback given its positive correlation with WTI. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,720 after hitting a daily peak of $4,833.
Bullion sinks as strong US data and rising Oil curb Fed bets
Peace talks between Washington and Tehran seem to have stalled. The US delegation, led by Vice President Vance, the envoy Steve Wytkoff, and Jared Kushner, remains in Washington, according to a White House official. At the same time, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson told Fars that there’s no definitive decision to participate in the negotiations with Washington.
Tehran demands the lifting of the US blockade. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump demands that Iran accept US demands to end the blockade and the war.
Data in the US revealed that Retail Sales beat expectations, jumping 1.7% in March from 0.7%, supported by higher fuel costs and tax refund-driven spending. Annual growth held steady at 4%. Earlier, the ADP four-week average increased to 54.8K from 39K, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient US labor market.
The Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, was grilled by the US Senate at his hearing. He said he favors a “regime change” at the Fed, including a new approach to controlling inflation, and that he does not support forward guidance. When asked about the US central bank’s independence, he said it is “essential” and that President Trump never asked him to commit to any rate decision.
In the meantime, the Greenback is recovering during Tuesday’s session as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.43% at 98.47, reaching a six-day high of 98.57.
US Treasury yields are also surging, with the 10-year benchmark note yielding 4.305%, up by nearly five basis points, a headwind for Gold, which usually fares better amid a lower interest rate environment.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps WTI prices underpinned, with the US crude Oil benchmark up more than 5.50% at $90.77 per barrel.
Ahead of the US economic docket, jobless claims and S&P Global Flash PMIs for April will be released on Thursday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Breakdown risks build as RSI turns bearish
From a technical perspective, Gold turned sideways during the week after failing to clear key resistance at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,889 and support at $4,700. Worth noting that XAU/USD breached the key technical 100-day SMA at $4,712, exposing the $4,700 milestone.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, which could exacerbate bullion’s drop to test the 20-day SMA at $4,679 ahead of the April 2 daily low of $4,555. On the other hand, if Gold reclaims $4,750, it opens the door to a recovery to $4,800.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Trump tells CNBC the US military is "raring to go" with the ceasefire expiration hours away.
- Iran's parliament speaker warns Tehran rejects negotiations under the shadow of threats.
- Vance's Islamabad trip is put on hold as Iran stalls on confirming a delegation.
- West Texas Intermediate rips 4% above $93 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic thins out.
The countdown is on, and the American delegation isn't even airborne. With the US-Iran ceasefire set to expire late Wednesday, Tuesday's messaging from both sides looked more like pre-conflict posturing than pre-deal diplomacy, capped by news that Vice President JD Vance's trip to Islamabad has been put on hold.
A Trump ultimatum, not an olive branch
President Donald Trump used Tuesday's CNBC interview to tell Wall Street he has no appetite for an extension. The president said time is running short, pointed to a favorable agreement as the likely outcome, and made clear the military is ready to resume operations, describing the US posture as "raring to go." Earlier on Truth Social, Trump accused Iran of repeatedly violating the ceasefire. But the American side looked less coordinated than the rhetoric suggested. Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner had been set to depart for Islamabad Tuesday morning for a second round of Pakistani-brokered talks, following a 21-hour session earlier this month that produced no deal. That flight was postponed as Iran's leadership stayed split on whether to attend, with the holdup reportedly tied to the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were spotted at the White House for policy meetings as the delegation sat idle.
Tehran digs in its heels
Iran's messaging on Tuesday did little to soften the tone. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar that Tehran is still weighing options, while the Iranian Foreign Ministry pinned the impasse on what it called provocative actions by Washington, including Sunday's seizure of the Iranian commercial ship Touska. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf went harder, warning on X that Trump is attempting to turn negotiations into a "table of surrender." Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei added that Tehran's reluctance reflects contradictory US behavior, not indecision.
Markets stop pricing the deal
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped 4% to trade above $93 per barrel, while Brent futures added 2% above $98, retracing the bulk of last week's slide on initial ceasefire optimism. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures, which printed an overnight high near 49,800, reversed to trade back near 49,400 as the Oil complex rallied and Treasury yields firmed. Only 16 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, per MarineTraffic data, a reminder that a waterway normally carrying around 20% of global Oil flow remains shut.
What happens if the clock runs out?
With Vance still in Washington and Iran yet to confirm a delegation, the diplomatic runway is shrinking fast. Trump sees little reason to extend, and Tehran will not negotiate under active military threat. Pakistan is still pushing both sides back to the table. If that push fails in the next 24 hours, the Strait of Hormuz and the Oil complex are the first places markets will register the fallout.
WTI 5-minute chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/CAD holds firm as a steadier US Dollar offsets support from higher Oil prices.
- Strong US data and fading hopes for US-Iran peace talks underpin the Greenback.
- Technically, USD/CAD trades near the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3640, signaling downside pressure.
USD/CAD holds firm on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) steadies after recent weakness, although the pair lacks strong upside momentum as elevated Oil prices provide underlying support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3662, holding modest gains and appearing to have paused its six-day losing streak.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering around 98.40, up nearly 0.35% on the day.
The firmer US Dollar reflects fading hopes that the US-Iran conflict will ease soon, as a second round of peace talks expected in Pakistan appears unlikely to resume ahead of the current two-week ceasefire deadline, raising the risk of further escalation. Iran has yet to confirm its participation, while CNN reported that US Vice President JD Vance is expected to depart for Islamabad on Wednesday.
Beyond geopolitics, strong US economic data has also supported the Greenback. Retail Sales rose by 1.7% MoM in March, beating expectations of 1.4% and accelerating from February’s 0.7% increase, driven in part by higher gasoline prices, while the ADP Employment Change 4-week average increased to 54.8K from 39K.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD maintains a bearish near-term bias on the daily chart, hovering near the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3640. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 36, approaching oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) staying in negative territory, suggesting persistent downside pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 1.3640, with a break below this level exposing the March low around 1.3525. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the Bollinger middle band near 1.3822, with a sustained move above this zone needed to ease bearish pressure and open the door toward the upper band around 1.4005.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.27% | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.37% | -0.01% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.31% | -0.03% | -0.42% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.27% | 0.14% | 0.06% | -0.15% | 0.11% | -0.27% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | 0.07% | -0.06% | -0.22% | 0.03% | -0.38% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 0.22% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.37% | 0.03% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.25% | -0.40% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.42% | 0.27% | 0.38% | 0.15% | 0.40% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.01% | -0.23% | 0.02% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights a complex European backdrop for the Euro (EUR), with Ukraine’s battlefield gains, EU financing plans, and internal political splits. He notes concerns over delayed US weapons shipments, limited EU accession benefits for Kyiv, and rising defence industrial activity in Germany, all set against broader US–Europe frictions on security and foreign policy.
Ukraine support and internal divisions
"In Europe, Ukraine may be seeing a ‘Second Miracle Year’ and “For the first time in years, outright victory seems possible” via its drone strikes."
"Moreover, the EU is bracing for delays to promised US weapons shipments due to the Iran war, as The Times says the UK isn’t seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers in its waters because berthing and maintaining them could cost too much(!) Meanwhile, France and Germany are said to be considering proposals to give Ukraine only "symbolic" benefits during a normal EU accession process, without granting Kyiv access to the EU's common budget or voting rights."
"In the same way there may be only symbolic weaponry if the US isn’t able to step up? That’s as the Wall Street Journal notes, ‘In Germany, Everyone Is a Defence Manufacturer Now’ as firms “scramble to reinvent themselves as military vendors to tap into the country’s accelerated rearmament.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observes the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is modestly softer as USD stabilizes, but stresses the broader USD/CAD bear trend remains intact. Softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) gives policymakers time to assess higher energy prices, while Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows resilient inflation expectations. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hold at 2.25% in April and tighten modestly by year-end.
Loonie dip seen within bearish setup
"Canadian CPI data delivered softer than expected results yesterday, providing policymakers with a little breathing room to determine how to address the jump in energy prices moving forward. The Business Outlook Survey for Q1 looks even more dated in the context of the recent spike in geopolitical risk but there were some bright spots in the survey that contrast with the sluggish start to the year for the economy"
"Policymakers may note somewhat elevated inflation expectations persisted in Q1 in the form a record number of respondents expecting inflation to remain in the 2-3% range—a sentiment that recent events may only reinforce. The Bank is expected to maintain the target rate at 2.25% at the April 29th policy decision but tighten policy modestly by year-end."
"The CAD is down modestly on the session, reflecting the broader stability in the USD on the session."
"Bearish—While the CAD is tracking slightly softer against the USD this morning, the broader bear in USD/CAD trend remains strong and intact on the charts."
"Trend strength oscillators remain aligned bearishly for the USD on the intraday, daily and weekly charts which typically implies limited scope for countertrend (USD) gains."
"We spot firm resistance around 1.3750 area (40-day MA, mid-March highs and former support). USD support is 1.3625/30 and 1.3500/25."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold trades with a bearish bias as a firmer US Dollar caps upside.
- US-Iran talks remain in doubt ahead of the ceasefire deadline, keeping markets cautious.
- Technically, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias on the 4-hour chart below $4,800.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias on Tuesday as fading hopes for US-Iran peace talks weigh on sentiment, following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,700, down nearly 2.50% on the day, pressured by a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD).
At the same time, firm US data released earlier in the day added to the pressure on Gold. Retail Sales rose by 1.7% MoM in March, beating expectations of 1.4% and accelerating from February’s 0.7% increase. In addition, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average increased to 54.8K from 39K.
US-Iran talks in doubt as ceasefire deadline approaches
Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war remain uncertain, with mixed signals surrounding a potential second round of peace talks expected in Pakistan. Multiple media reports suggested that Iran is sending a delegation for the talks. However, Iran’s state broadcaster pushed back on these claims, stating in a Telegram post that “so far, no delegation from Iran has travelled to Islamabad, neither a primary nor a secondary, neither initial nor follow-up.”
Meanwhile, a White House official said that US Vice President JD Vance has not yet departed for the talks. With the current two-week ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday, markets remain cautious. US President Donald Trump said on Monday it is “highly unlikely” that he will extend the truce, adding, “We will not open the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is signed.” Trump has also warned that fighting could resume if no agreement is reached.
On the Iranian side, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has been “preparing to show new cards on the battlefield” and would “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.”
Higher Oil prices keep pressure on Gold
Meanwhile, ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under a dual blockade by US naval forces and Iran, continue to support elevated Oil prices. This is keeping inflation risks in focus and reinforcing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), may keep interest rates higher for longer.
While Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on its appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. As a result, the precious metal remains under pressure in the near term, even as geopolitical risks provide some support and keep prices largely range-bound.
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh said during his Senate testimony that the Fed needs a new inflation framework and a broader “regime change” in the conduct of monetary policy.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments around US-Iran talks and the ceasefire deadline, as well as movements in the US Dollar and Oil prices for fresh directional cues.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD stuck in range as momentum weakens
In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias, as price holds beneath the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average center line near $4,795.92 and even the lower band at roughly $4,725 now acts as immediate overhead supply. The pair is sliding along the lower side of the Bollinger envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index has retreated to about 35, hinting at emerging oversold conditions but not yet signaling a decisive bullish reversal, and the Average Directional Index near 14 suggests the downtrend remains weak rather than impulsive.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the lower Bollinger Band around $4,725, followed by the middle band near $4,796 and then the upper band close to $4,867, where any recovery is likely to face renewed selling pressure. With no meaningful four-hour support levels from the Bollinger framework below the market, sustained trading under the $4,725 area would leave XAU/USD vulnerable to further downside extension unless oversold momentum on the RSI triggers a corrective bounce back toward the mid-band region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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