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ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that while investors currently favour higher‑beta currencies, European Central Bank (ECB) pricing can still underpin the Euro (EUR). Markets continue to discount around 58bp of tightening despite lower energy prices, and ING doubts modest further declines in Oil alone will push expectations below 50bp, supporting EUR/USD back towards the 1.1700–1.1730 area rather than a rapid jump to 1.1800.

ECB rate expectations backstop EUR

"This is not an environment for outright EUR strength given investors’ preference for higher‑beta currencies. Still, European Central Bank pricing could give the euro more durable support than elsewhere. While falling energy prices have driven a dovish repricing in the EUR swap curve, markets continue to discount around 58bp of tightening by year‑end."

"We doubt that a modest further decline in energy prices alone would be enough to push ECB pricing below 50bp. Rate cycles at the ECB are typically framed around two 25bp moves or nothing at all, meaning a material dovish shift would likely require explicit guidance rather than just lower oil prices."

"With no permanent ceasefire in place and uncertainty around oil flows persisting, the ECB is unlikely to rush towards a decisively dovish narrative. That could prompt the euro to outperform other currencies (like USD) where pricing appears to be more flexible on the dovish side."

"A jump to 1.1800 seems a bit premature given lingering volatility in the Gulf, but sticky ECB hawkish bets favour a return to the 1.1700-1.1730 area in EUR/USD."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• The Indian Rupee corrects against the US Dollar as investors doubt the sustainability of the US-Iran truce.
• Iran alleges that the US violates three clauses of the 10-point proposal.
• The amount of FIIs selling on Wednesday was significantly lower than the average selling seen in the April 1-7 period.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Thursday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.70 from the three-week low of 92.20 posted on Wednesday, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

The Indian currency weakens in the early trade due to growing doubts over the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire and the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.

Iran criticizes US for violating three clauses of 10-point proposal

Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a post on X on Wednesday, that the US has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal, shared by Tehran as demands in consideration of a permanent ceasefire while agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Qalibaf explicitly criticized the US for non-compliance with the first clause of the 10-point proposal, which was “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”. He warned that a ceasefire in these conditions is “unreasonable”.

This has raised uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire, which has revived risk-off impulse, weighing on riskier assets.

Meanwhile, the White House announced on Wednesday that it is sending a team, which will be led by Vice President (VP) JD Vance, to Pakistan for the first round of negotiations on Saturday.

FIIs remain net sellers despite the Iran ceasefire announcement

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to remain net sellers in the Indian stock market despite the US and Iran announcing a two-week ceasefire. On Wednesday, FIIs offloaded their stake worth Rs. 2,811.97 crore. However, the amount sold by foreign investors was significantly lower than the average selling seen in the past trading days of April. In the first four trading days of this month, the average selling by overseas investors was worth Rs. 8,780.39 crore.

RBI maintains status quo, warns of widening current account deficit

In the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo, leaving the Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second time in a row. The Indian central bank was expected to do so as higher oil prices due to the Middle East war had de-anchored inflation expectations globally.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that elevated energy prices could prompt imported inflation and widen the current account deficit.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR finds ground near 92.20

In the early trade, USD/INR trades higher at around 92.60. However, the near-term tone seems bearish as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 92.90. The pair’s inability to reclaim this dynamic resistance after the recent pullback suggests upside attempts remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the mid-40s hints at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 92.90 is the first level buyers need to clear to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward 94.00. On the downside, Wednesday's low at 92.20 is the immediate support, followed by the March 5 low at 91.40.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan expects USD/INR to remain range-bound, projecting a base-case trading band between 94.00 and 95.00 over time, with a wider 97.00–98.00 range in a risk scenario of rising Oil prices. He notes the Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep rates on hold, with INR yields staying sticky due to domestic and external risks.

RBI stance and INR range projections

"In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India kept its policy rate on hold while keeping a neutral stance in what was a unanimous vote, as it signalled a focus on keeping rupee stability over supporting growth. Governor Malhotra highlighted upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth from the Iran conflict and global oil prices, even as he signalled overall confidence in the Indian economy and macro buffers in withstanding these external shocks. The RBI is projecting some modest slowdown in growth with GDP at 6.9% and inflation at 4.6% for FY2026/27, with an assumption of crude oil at US$85/bbl average."

"On the recent RBI FX measures, Governor Malhotra described RBI’s FX measures as temporary, reaffirmed commitment to support Rupee internationalization over the medium-term, while framed the measures as a way to weed out short-term speculation and pressure that had been building up on one-way INR depreciation bets."

"In our base-case we think USD/INR can trade between the 94.00 to 95.00 range over time. In a risk case of oil prices resuming its rise, we think USD/INR may trade closer to the 97.00 to 98.00 range. While we see RBI keeping rates on hold for now, the meaningful risk of second round effects on food prices, potential fiscal slippages and weakness in capital inflows should result in a bias for overall INR interest rate yield structure to remain sticky moving forward."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• USD/CAD ticks up to near 1.3850 as the US Dollar edges higher amid doubts over the US-Iran ceasefire.
• Iran confirms sending a team to Pakistan to negotiate on the 10-point proposal with the US.
• Investors await Canadian employment data for March, scheduled for Friday.

The USD/CAD pair trades marginally higher around 1.3850 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair gains temporary ground after a three-day losing streak as the US Dollar (USD) attracts slight bids, with investors starting to doubt the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran announced on early Wednesday.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.10.

The uncertainty over the US-Iran ceasefire credibility has stemmed due to continuous attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon. In response, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has alleged the US for violating three clauses of the 10-point peace proposal.

Meanwhile, Iran has confirmed sending a team to Pakistan on late Thursday for the first round of talks with the US.  

On the macro front, investors await the Canadian employment data for March, which will be released on Friday.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD edges up to near 1.3850 in Thursday's European trade. The pair maintains a modest bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3827, keeping the latest upswing intact despite the recent pullback from last week’s highs.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 57 leans slightly to the bullish side without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting the advance could extend while price respects nearby dynamic support.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3827, where a break would hint at a deeper corrective phase toward the March 3 high of 1.3750. As long as buyers defend this moving average, the broader constructive structure is likely to persist, leaving scope for fresh attempts to retest recent highs in the 1.3950 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• EUR/GBP trades with mild gains around 0.8710 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• German Industrial Production fell unexpectedly in February. 
• BoE rate hike bets cool as trader sentiment resets. 

The EUR/GBP cross posts modest gains near 0.8710 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) remains firm despite the downbeat German Industrial Production report. The attention will shift to the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data, which will be published on Friday.

German industrial output falls unexpectedly in February, declining 0.3% MoM over the month, Destatis reported on Thursday. This figure followed 0% recorded in January (revised from -0.5%) and came in weaker than the expectation of a 0.9% rise. Annually, German Industrial Production arrived at 0% in the same period, following January’s revised 0.9% decrease. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a hawkish tone, with policymakers signaling a shift toward potential further tightening if price pressures persist. This, in turn, could provide some support to the EUR against the GBP. Traders have ramped up bets, with markets now fully priced in two rate hikes and more than a 50% chance of a third move by December, according to Reuters.  

On the UK’s front, traders have cooled expectations for aggressive rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) following news of a tentative ceasefire. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned traders that markets may be "ahead of themselves" in pricing in multiple rate hikes, emphasizing that the current "right place to be is on hold."

• Gold trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling.
• The fragile US-Iran ceasefire supports the USD and acts as a headwind for the commodity.
• The Fed’s dovish outlook caps the USD and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot heading into the European session on Thursday, though it manages to hold above the $4,700 mark and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's slide from a three-week high. Skepticism over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire offers some support to the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and helps limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. The White House also confirmed that Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire drawn up between Iran and the US. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. This keeps a lid on the optimism and supports the USD, undermining the Gold price.

Meanwhile, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed a higher-for-longer stance, with officials in no rush to cut interest rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. That said, policymakers still signaled one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear. This caps the attempted USD recovery from a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day, and turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the Gold price.

Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy outlook and drive the USD price, providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction for the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold bears await break and acceptance below $4,700 before placing fresh bets

The XAU/USD pair holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement of the March downside, keeping a bearish bias intact. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips into negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around a neutral 52, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh impulsive leg higher.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement around $4,604, with further cushions at the 23.6% level near $4,412 and the prior swing low region close to $4,102, where buyers would be expected to show more interest. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,758, followed by a heavier barrier in the $4,895–$4,914 zone where the 200-period SMA and the 61.8% retracement converge, ahead of higher hurdles at the $5,000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that AUD/USD’s sharp advance has stalled below 0.7100, with price action now seen as part of a consolidation band between 0.7000 and 0.7080. Over the coming weeks they still allow for a test of 0.7135, provided the pair holds above 0.6970, even as the broader 1–3 month technical picture continues to point to a lower AUD/USD.

Short term consolidation after sharp gains

"The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.7000 and 0.7080."

"We indicated the following yesterday (08 Apr, spot at 0.7075) "While the sharp rally after NY close suggests AUD could continue to rise, the rapid advance appears overdone. That said, there is room for AUD to test 0.7135. To keep the momentum going, AUD must hold above 0.6970. Near-term 0.7000 is already a firm support”. We continue to hold the same view."

"The overall technical picture points to a lower AUD/USD; a breach of the 0.6850/0.6870 support zone could trigger a decline toward 0.6765. (dated 27 Mar 2026, 0.6885)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• EUR/USD wavers around 1.1660 after pulling back from 1.1721 highs.
• A fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is keeping investors on edge.
• The minutes of the last Fed meeting showed more openness for interest rate hikes.

The (EUR) is trading practically flat, right above 1.1660 against the US Dollar at Thursday’s European session opening. The pair pùlled back from Wednesday’s highs, at 1.1721, as Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz following massive Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

The Iranian authorities complained about violations of the ceasefire proposal while the US and Israel affirm that Lebanon is not part of the agreement, and US President Donald Trump threatened action if Tehran fails to comply with the deal. Despite the tensions, both parties have announced that they will send delegations for direct talks in Pakistan, which keeps peace hopes alive for now.

The Fed turns more hawkish

Apart from that, a moderate hawkish tilt on the minutes of March’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has contributed to the US Dollar’s rebound. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers acknowledged that progress towards the 2% inflation target will be longer than previously thought, and some committee members considered that higher interest rates might be appropriate if inflation remains above target levels.

Later on Thursday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, but above all, Friday’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which refers to March, will reveal the inflationary impact of the Iran war, and might give further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy path.

In Europe, German Industrial Production figures revealed that factory output declined against expectations in February, while the trade surplus contracted less than expected, with imports and exports increasing beyond forecasts. The impact of these figures on the Euro has been marginal.

Technical Analysis: The near-term bias remains bullish

EUR/USD maintains a constructive near-term bias, despite the recent pullback, as it holds most of the gains taken over the previous three days.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive, which together suggest that upward momentum is still in play.

On the topside, the area between Wednesday's high at 1.1721 and the February 19 low near 1.1740 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the late-February highs, around 1.1830. Bears remain capped above previous highs, in the 1.1630-1.1640 area, so far closing the path towards the weekly lows, at 1.1505.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)