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OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe that USD/SGD has turned slightly softer, tracking Renminbi (RMB) gains as the Dollar consolidates. They see risks skewed to the downside, with support at 1.29 and 1.2840 and resistance at 1.2980. With strong correlation to DXY, they expect USD/SGD to take cues from external drivers, especially United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimonies.

External drivers and technical setup

"USD/SGD was a touch softer, tracking gains in RMB while USD takes a breather."

"Pair was last at 1.2915. Momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside for now. Support at 1.29 (61.8% fibo retracement of Nov high to Jan low), 1.2840 (50 DMA), 50% fibo). Resistance at 1.2980 (76.4% fibo)."

"On the SG data docket this week, 2Q26 GDP is scheduled for release on 14 Jul while NODX is release on 19 Jul."

"With correlation between USDSGD and DXY still significant, the pair is likely taking cues from external drivers – watch US CPI and Fed Chair testimonies closely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 14:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) surges toward 101.30, gaining around 0.3% as escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran boost safe-haven demand and drive energy prices sharply higher. US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open “with or without Iran,” declared the US the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait” and announced a blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers.

Iran rejected Washington’s involvement and warned that any unauthorized US attempt to transit the Strait would face strong resistance. Tehran also said cooperation between regional countries and the US could be considered an act of war.

Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.8% YoY in June from 4.2%, while the monthly reading is forecast to decline 0.1% after rising 0.5%. Core CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also testify later in the session, followed by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

EUR/USD falls toward 1.1380, losing 0.3% as broad US Dollar strength outweighs support for the Euro. Higher Oil prices could also complicate the Eurozone’s inflation and growth outlook due to the region’s reliance on imported energy. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, although US inflation data will likely remain the pair’s main driver.

GBP/USD declines near 1.3350, down around 0.4%, as investors move toward the Greenback amid geopolitical uncertainty. With no major United Kingdom data scheduled, Sterling is likely to follow developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the US CPI release, and Fed commentary.

USD/JPY advances toward 162.40, gaining around 0.5% as the Japanese Yen struggles despite the risk-off environment. The sharp increase in Oil prices weighs on Japan’s economic outlook due to the country’s dependence on imported energy. The pair’s rise near multi-decade highs could also increase speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

AUD/USD falls below 0.6920, losing around 0.5% as weaker risk appetite weighs on the Australian Dollar. China’s June exports are expected to rise 18.2% YoY, easing from 19.4%, while imports are forecast to increase 24% YoY, down from 27.4%.

USD/CAD remains broadly neutral near 1.4150. The Canadian Dollar receives support from the surge in Crude Oil prices, but the stronger US Dollar prevents the pair from moving significantly lower.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades sharply higher near $78.00 per barrel, gaining around 9% and reaching a one-month high. Concerns about possible disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased fears of tighter global energy supplies.

Gold falls below the psychological $4,000 level, losing around 3%. The precious metal has failed to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty as the surging US Dollar and concerns that higher energy prices could keep interest rates elevated weigh on demand.

DBS Group Research, led by Ma Tieying, assesses Taiwan’s AI-driven expansion and its implications for the 2H26 outlook. The bank notes that AI remains central for Taiwan’s technology-oriented economy and that the AI supercycle is nearing a peak. DBS expects Taiwan to maintain above-trend growth through 3Q26 before normalizing from 4Q26, with inflation staying sticky and GDP and CPI forecasts revised accordingly.

AI supercycle nears cyclical peak

"The AI outlook is balanced between strong structural optimism and rising cyclical caution."

"AI remains the central theme shaping the 2H26 economic outlook, particularly for technology-oriented economies such as Taiwan.We monitor the AI cycle across three layers: AI token usage, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and semiconductor demand and supply."

"These indicators suggest that the momentum of the AI super-cycle is approaching a peak."

"Taiwan entered 2026 with exceptionally strong economic momentum."

"Looking ahead to 2H26, we expect Taiwan to maintain above-trend growth through 3Q26 before activity begins to normalize from 4Q26 onward."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the OPR at 2.75% for a sixth straight meeting, maintaining a cautious tone on global risks. Growth is still expected within a 4–5% range, with inflation contained. USD/MYR eased to 4.07 but remains elevated due to domestic political uncertainty and upcoming state elections.

Ringgit steady under policy hold

"BNM kept the OPR unchanged at 2.75% for a sixth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations."

"Overall, BNM continues to expect growth within its 4-5% forecast range this year, although weaker commodity production and a prolonged Middle East conflict could push growth towards the lower end."

"On inflation, BNM assessed that price pressures remain contained despite higher global commodity prices."

"Headline and core inflation averaged 1.7% and 2.1% respectively in the first five months of the year, staying within BNM's 2026 forecast range of 1.5-2.5%."

"Therefore, we expect BNM to remain on hold for the rest of the year."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• NZD/USD remains below 200-day SMA for 25 sessions.
• RSI shows buyers active, but consolidation risk remains elevated.
• Break below 0.5700 exposes 0.5672 and 0.5650 supports.

The New Zealand Dollar recoiled during Monday’s North American session, down 0.12%, as the Greenback posted gains versus most G8 FX currencies amid rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish comments from a Fed Governor. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5754, down from daily highs of 0.5789.

NZD/USD price forecast: Technical outlook

The Kiwi Dollar remains downwardly biased, with the pair standing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5819 for the 25th consecutive trading day. This is despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raising rates and opening the door to further tightening.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests that buyers are in charge. Though as of writing, it signals further consolidation ahead.

For a bearish continuation, the NZD/USD must drop below the psychological 0.5700 figure. Below this area lies the July 8 low of 0.5672, followed by 0.5650. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 0.5600 milestone.

Upwards, the first resistance is the July 10 daily high at 0.5794, ahead of 0.5800. Above this level lies the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at around 0.5812-0.5819, respectively, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5835 and by the 0.5850 mark.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/CNH dipped after a stronger USD/CNY fix below 6.80, the first such level since February 2023. They read this as policymakers being comfortable with further RMB appreciation while managing the pace. Technically, they see mild bullish momentum in USD/CNH, with support at 6.75/76 and resistance at 6.80 and 6.8320.

PBoC fix strategy and key levels

"USD/CNH dipped, taking cues from a lower USD/CNY fix on Friday. The fix was set at 6.7989, below 6.80 for the first time since Feb 2023 and lower than 6.8036 prior. But the fix was still 51 pips weaker than Bloomberg consensus at 6.7938."

"This may suggest that policymakers are comfortable with further RMB appreciation but remain mindful of the pace. Further fixes below 6.80 should be supportive of RMB, though the gap against market expectations will remain important in interpreting PBoC’s bias."

"USD/CNH last at 6.7820 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI looks flat. 2-way trade still likely. Support at 6.75/76 levels. Resistance at 6.80, 6.8320 (DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Silver respects lower-high structure as sellers pressure $57.22 support.
• Break below $57.22 exposes $54.39 and $50.00 downside targets.
• Bullish recovery requires clearing $62.50 trendline and $63.28 high.

Silver price remains below $60.00 as the week begins, diving nearly 4% on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East. Hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller underpin the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), is up by over 0.28%. The XAG/USD trades at $57.50. 

XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlook

The downtrend in Silver seems poised to continue as the market structure of successive lower highs and lower lows is respected. Also, the XAG/USD is about to breach the July 8 daily low of $57.22, which if achieved would open the path to test the November 13, 2025 high, which has since turned support at $54.39. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the $50.00 milestone.

Conversely, for a bullish resumption, XAG/USD must clear a key resistance trendline at around $62.25-$62.50, before interrupting the downward market structure if bulls clear the July 6 high at $63.28. If hurdled, this clears the way to challenge $65.00. Once surpassed, Silver could aim toward the $70.00 region.

XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily

• USD/JPY trades higher as rising Oil prices and US-Iran tensions support the US Dollar while weighing on Yen.
• Trump restarts blockade of Hormuz, while Iran says the Strait is closed.
• Investors await US June CPI, with softer inflation potentially weakening the Greenback, while stronger price pressure could support a more restrictive Fed.

USD/JPY trades higher near 162.40 on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by higher Oil prices and growing concerns that renewed energy pressure could keep global inflation elevated.

US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open “with or without Iran” and announced the reinstatement of a blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers. Trump also declared the US the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait” and proposed charging 20% on cargo transported through the waterway to cover security costs.

Iran rejected Washington’s involvement, saying that the US would not be allowed to determine how the Strait is managed. Tehran also warned that any unauthorized US attempt to transit the waterway would be strongly confronted and that cooperation between regional countries and Washington could be considered an act of war.

On the US side, investors await the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.8% YoY from 4.2%, while the monthly reading is forecast to decline 0.1% after rising 0.5%. Core CPI is projected to remain unchanged at 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Softer-than-expected inflation could weaken the Greenback, while stronger price pressure, particularly amid rising energy costs, could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 162.46, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 162.14 and the 100-period SMA near 161.89. The cluster of nearby supports reinforces the uptrend structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 58 stays in positive territory, hinting that upward momentum remains in place rather than stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the horizontal barrier around 162.47, where a clear break would open the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen at 162.41, followed by 162.33 and 162.26, with the 20-period SMA at 162.14 and the 100-period SMA at 161.89, offering deeper layers of demand if a pullback develops.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• The US Dollar regains momentum after hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
• Markets now price in a 41% chance of a Fed interest rate hike this month.
• US CPI data takes centre stage on Tuesday ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s two-day congressional testimony.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) regains momentum on Monday after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller boosted expectations of an interest rate hike as early as this month.

At the time of writing, the index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.25, recovering from an intraday low of 100.80.

Speaking at the New York Association for Business Economics on Monday, Waller said, “There is still a credible case for inflation to begin to fall back to our 2% goal with policy at its current setting. But I am concerned about the equally plausible case that data in the coming weeks will show that inflation will remain at its elevated level or even trend higher, requiring tighter monetary policy in the near term.”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 41% chance of a rate hike at the July meeting, up from 25% a week ago, while the probability of a September hike has risen to 75%.

Attention now turns to Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where headline inflation is expected to fall 0.1% MoM in June following a 0.5% increase in May, while core CPI is seen holding steady at 0.2%.

Oil-driven inflation risks are also back in focus after renewed fighting in the Middle East raised fresh concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of global Oil supplies.

Tehran claimed it has once again closed the Strait, while US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that the waterway "is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran," adding that the US would reinstate the blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $77.72, up more than 8% on the day and at its highest level since June 22.

With Fed tightening expectations strengthening and geopolitical tensions offering additional support, the US Dollar’s path of least resistance remains tilted to the upside.

Traders will also watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh policy signals.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD opened stronger after a quiet prior session, with upward momentum tentatively building but still facing resistance around 1.2945–1.2955. For the next 1–3 weeks, they keep its view that USD/SGD will trade between 1.2890 and 1.2990. On a 1–3 month horizon, a break above 1.3000 could target the November 2025 high at 1.3095.

Range bias with upside levels

"24-HOUR VIEW: USD traded in a quiet manner last Thursday. On Friday, we stated that “the price action provides no fresh clues, and USD is likely to trade between 1.2905 and 1.2940.” USD then traded between 1.2896 and 1.2925. USD closed marginally lower by 0.01% at 1.2920, but it opened on a strong note today. Upward momentum is tentatively building, and the bias for USD today is tilted to the upside. However, it is unclear for now whether there is sufficient momentum for a break above 1.2955 (there is another resistance level at 1.2945). On the downside, support levels are at 1.2920 and 1.2910"

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have expected USD to in a range between 1.2890 and 1.2990 since early this month. Last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 1.2915), we indicated that “the risk of USD breaking below 1.2890 is increasing.” After USD subsequently rebounded, we highlighted on Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.2940) that the recent “mild downward pressure has eased,” and USD “is likely to trade in a range between 1.2890 and 1.2990.” Our view remains unchanged."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)