Forex News
- USD/JPY trades sideways around 159.00 as investors await Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing.
- The US and Iran are expected to have another round of talks in the April 22-23 period.
- The pair remains rangebound for a month, wobbles around THE 20-day EMA.
The USD/JPY pair consolidates around 159.00 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major struggles for a direction as investors await commentary from United States (US) President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new chairman in his confirmation hearing at 14:00 GMT.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 98.00.
Investors would keenly focus on Warsh’s comments to gauge whether his decisions during his term will be biased towards Washington’s economic agenda or towards preserving the Fed’s independence.
Since US President Trump’s return to the White House, he has criticized the Fed, especially Chairman Jerome Powell, several times for not reducing interest rates aggressively.
On the geopolitical front, Iran and the US will likely have another round of talks in Islamabad either on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY trades flat at around 159.00 at the press time. The price has been stuck near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around 158.95 for a month, indicating a sideways trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests momentum has normalized into a neutral stance rather than signaling strong directional conviction.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the March high of 160.46, and a sustained break above this level would strengthen the pair to extend its upside towards the 2024 year of 161.95. Looking down, the April 17 low around 157.60 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Chair-designate Warsh testifies
Kevin Warsh (April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who has been nominated by President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 21, 2026 14:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
- The Indian Rupee drops against the US Dollar as the RBI withdraws partial curbs aimed at supporting the domestic currency.
- The US and Iran will likely resume peace talks on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
- Investors await Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing later in the day.
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at open on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 93.35 as the Indian currency faces selling pressure, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolls back partial measures that were meant to diminish the impact of one-way excessive moves against the domestic currency.
On late Monday, the RBI announced that it withdrew curbs on state-run banks, which were restricting them from offering non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to resident and non‑resident users and dropped curbs that prevented users from rebooking foreign exchange derivative contracts, Reuters reports.
Iran agrees to another round of talks with the US
The risk appetite of financial market participants has improved significantly, as Iran has agreed to return to the table with the United States (US) to resume talks regarding a permanent ceasefire.
A report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has shown that Iran has told regional mediators that it would send a negotiating team to Islamabad on Tuesday for the second round of talks with the US. However, there has been no official confirmation by Tehran.
While Washington had already confirmed that Vice President (VP) JD Vance is leaving for Islamabad and will lead the team in negotiations with Tehran, which will likely take place on either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
On Monday, market sentiment turned risk-averse after Iran refused to sit down again with the US, while accusing it of violating ceasefire terms. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now."
FIIs turn out to be net sellers on Monday
While strength in global markets reflects confidence that the US and Iran would lead to a permanent ceasefire soon, the sentiment of overseas investors toward the Indian stock market continues to remain lackluster.
On Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian stock market after raising a little stake in the April 15-17 period. FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 1,059.53 crore on the first trading day of the week. In the last three trading days of the previous week, FIIs purchased shares worth Rs. 1,731.71 (Rs. 577.24 crore on average).
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing and US Retail Sales data in focus
In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the speech of US President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new chairman in his confirmation hearing and US Retail Sales data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have grown 1.4% on a monthly basis against February’s reading of 0.6%. Investors will monitor the data to get cues regarding the overall demand for households.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR returns above 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades higher at around 93.35 at the press time. The near-term tone of the pair turns bullish, as it returns above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 93.08.
The Relative Strength Index (14) continues to wobble inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, reflecting a sideways trend.
Looking up, the spot could attempt further recovery towards 94.00 if it manages to sustain firmly above the 20-day EMA. On the downside, the price could return to the March 3 high at 92.46 if it fails to hold above the average.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- WTI eases on softer supply fears as Iran plans second-round US talks before the truce ends.
- Trump says VP JD Vance will travel to Pakistan to resume negotiations.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply after Iran’s warning shots and a US seizure of an Iranian ship.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $85.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices ease as supply concerns soften, with reports that Iran will send a delegation to Islamabad for a second round of talks with the US before the truce expires.
Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.” However, Trump also indicated the truce is unlikely to be extended if no deal is reached this week, adding the Strait of Hormuz will stay blocked until an agreement is secured.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply on Monday after weekend tensions, with Iran reportedly firing warning shots at vessels and the US military seizing an Iranian cargo ship. Ship-tracking data showed just one vessel exiting and two entering the Gulf over 12 hours, far below the typical daily flow of around 130 ships, reported by Reuters.
Reuters, citing Citi, noted that if disruptions persist for another month, losses could reach about 1.3 billion barrels, with prices nearing $110 in Q2 2026. Bloomberg added that Kuwait has declared force majeure on oil shipments due to the blockade, while Societe Generale analysts estimate demand has already fallen about 3%.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
German ZEW Survey Overview
The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index for April at 09:00 GMT later on Tuesday.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to fall to -5.0 in April, from -0.5 in March. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is expected to drop to -70 in the reported month, down from the previous reading of -62.0.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in Eurozone is expected to decline to -3.6 in April, from -8.5 previously.
How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to ZEW Survey. The pair edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid cautious markets ahead of potential US-Iran peace talks.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Euro (EUR), with the first upside barrier seen at the 1.1800 psychological level. The next resistance level emerges at the April 17 high of 1.1849, en route to the February 9 high of 1.1926.
To the downside, the April 20 low of 1.1728 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1680, followed by the April 8 low of 1.1588.
Economic Indicator
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 21, 2026 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -5
Previous: -0.5
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Asian equities rise on hopes of a resolution to the Middle East conflict.
- Japanese shares gain as technology and AI-related stocks push the broader market higher.
- The Kospi jumps as easing geopolitical tensions and strong chipmaker performance support the market.
Asian equities rise on Tuesday amid hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. Bloomberg reported that US President Donald Trump stated that US Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday for Pakistan to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.” Iran is also sending a team, although it is unclear who would lead the delegation.
At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading over 1% higher near 59,450, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 0.11% to near 26,400, and South Korea’s KOSPI advance over 2% above 6,350, hitting fresh record highs at the time of writing. However, China’s SSE Composite Index falls 0.24% to near 4,070.
Japanese shares advance as gains in technology and AI-related stocks lift the broader market higher. Market sentiment improves amid reports suggesting the central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this month while assessing the economic impact stemming from the Middle East conflict.
The Hang Seng Index rises as sentiment strengthens on indications of potential diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Optimism increased following reports that Iran could participate in talks with the United States ahead of the ceasefire deadline.
The KOSPI surges on easing geopolitical tensions and sustained strength in chipmaking stocks. Adding to the upbeat tone, South Korea’s exports climbed 49.4% year-over-year in the first 20 days of April, supported by a sharp recovery in semiconductor shipments, which jumped more than 180%, reinforcing confidence in the earnings outlook for the nation’s key technology sector.
The Shanghai Composite declines as uncertainty lingers despite optimism surrounding US–Iran ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping called for an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of normal shipping through the strait, underscoring Beijing’s concerns over potential global economic repercussions.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- Gold meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session, though the downside seems limited.
- Inflation fears support US bond yields, underpinning the USD and weighing on the commodity.
- Rising Fed rate cut bets to cap gains for the buck and lend support to the non-yielding bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent through the Asian session on Tuesday and slides further below the $4,800 mark, reversing a part of the previous day's goodish rebound from a one-week low. Investors remain skeptical about a potential US-Iran agreement amid the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman as part of its blockade. In response, Iran once again closed the strategic waterway, which acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, revives inflationary concerns and offers some support to the US Dollar (USD), exerting some pressure on the commodity.
Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Instead, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a roughly 45-50% chance of a Fed rate cut by the year-end, which should keep a lid on the USD and continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid continuing uncertainty over whether talks to end the US-Iran war will take place. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further downfall for the XAU/USD pair.
US President Donald Trump announced that US negotiators will travel to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran, aiming to extend a fragile ceasefire that is set to expire on Wednesday. Iranian officials, on the other hand, are hesitant about further peace talks, citing the US blockade. In fact, Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran will not accept negotiations while under threat. Moreover, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that continued violations of the ceasefire by the US are a major obstacle to continuing the diplomatic process. Reports, however, suggest that an Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad for negotiations.
Hence, the market focus will remain glued to incoming headlines surrounding the US-Iran saga, which might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets. Apart from this, trades on Tuesday will take cues from Fed Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh's testimony to grab some meaningful opportunities around the Gold price. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold needs to weaken below 50% Fibo., near $4,765-$4,760 to negate positive outlook
The precious metal holds a constructive near-term bias as it sits above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,784.25. The 50.0% retracement level of the March downfall, at $4,762.13, adds a secondary layer of underlying demand beneath the EMA. Meanwhile, momentum gauges remain subdued rather than directional, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near a neutral 51, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally negative. This hints that bulls retain structural control but lack strong follow-through for now.
In the meantime, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA at $4,784.25 and then the 50.0% retracement at $4,762.13. A sustained break below this cluster would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $4,607.05 and $4,415.17 ahead of the broader swing low region near $4,105.01. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,917.21, with further hurdles at the 78.6% level at $5,138.01 and the cycle high region at $5,419.25, where any rejection would likely cap the current bullish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.25% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.10% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.36% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.39% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.06% | 0.06% | -0.37% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.29% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.42% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.39% | 0.37% | 0.29% | 0.42% | 0.39% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.03% | -0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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