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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Jul 10, 05:49 HKT
British Pound Sterling stages a jailbreak while Westminster arranges a coronation
  • GBP/USD trades at 1.3404 on Thursday, clearing the 200-day EMA for the first time since mid-June.
  • Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and a second night of American strikes on Iran fail to put a bid under the Dollar.
  • Labour nominations run to July 16, with an effectively unopposed Andy Burnham set to be declared leader on July 17 and Prime Minister three days later.

Cable adds roughly a tenth of a percent on Thursday, changing hands a whisker above 1.3400 and poking through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since mid-June. The setting makes the move notable: the United States traded overnight strikes with Iran for a second consecutive day, Crude Oil carries a war premium, and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers spent the session sounding hawkish. None of it bought the Dollar anything against the Pound.

Washington supplies hawks and airstrikes, and the Dollar shrugs

Thursday's American docket gave Dollar bulls usable material, starting with Initial Jobless Claims printing 215K at 12:30 GMT against a 218K consensus and a 217K prior. A voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member delivered remarks rated firmly hawkish at 13:00 GMT, another policymaker speaks at 17:30 GMT, and Existing Home Sales falling 2.4% MoM in June stands as the lone soft spot on the tape.

The geopolitical backdrop leaned the same way. American forces hit roughly 90 targets across Iran overnight after Tehran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington reimposed Crude Oil sanctions, and the interim peace framework signed last month is functionally suspended. A reserve currency that cannot rally on hawkish rhetoric plus a Middle East war bid is a reserve currency whose buyers are already positioned, and market pricing of roughly three-in-four odds of a July Fed hold explains the fatigue.

Threadneedle Street's dissenters meet the King of the North

Sterling's side of the ledger keeps improving at the margin, anchored by a Bank of England that held at 3.75% in June on a 7-2 vote, with two policymakers pushing for 4.00% against a single dissent in April. Services inflation at 3.7% and a household energy cap rising 13.5% into the third quarter keep that bloc armed, and markets now assign roughly 76% odds to a hike before year-end. A Deputy Governor's appearance at 09:30 GMT came and went without disturbing that pricing.

The political vacancy is resolving on schedule, with nominations to replace Keir Starmer opening Thursday and running to July 16. Andy Burnham faces no declared challenger, and the timetable delivers a new Labour leader on July 17 and a new Prime Minister on July 20. The currency has treated the transition as resolved for two weeks; what remains unpriced is the fiscal program, since Burnham has named no Chancellor and his Manchesterism platform implies spending Westminster has not yet costed.

Continuation or head-fake, the map for both

The continuation case is straightforward mechanics: a daily close above the 200-day EMA sitting just shy of 1.3400 converts a two-week short-covering grind into a trend signal, and the Stochastic Relative Strength Index at 60 and rising leaves room before overbought territory forces the issue. The path runs through 1.3450 toward 1.3500, the shelf that rejected the June advance, with rate differentials leaning Sterling's way into a hawkish Bank of England and a paused Fed.

The reversal case deserves equal billing because this is the third assault on this moving-average cluster since May, and the 50-day EMA still running below the 200-day leaves the broader alignment bearish even as price escapes. A hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Tuesday would re-arm the Fed hike trade overnight, Thursday brings May Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures after April's 0.1% contraction, and any Burnham fiscal headline lands on a gilt market with a long memory. A failure that produces a daily close back below 1.3350 reframes the July recovery as positioning noise and exposes 1.3300.

A silent Friday before the calendar turns hostile

Friday's docket is empty on both sides of the Atlantic, leaving the pair to trade Hormuz headlines and pre-CPI positioning in thinning summer liquidity. The quiet does not last: British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales open the week on Monday at 23:01 GMT after a 3.4% prior, and Tuesday's US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the event of the month, with the calendar showing a minus 0.1% MoM headline consensus after 0.5% and core seen steady at 2.9% YoY.

Wednesday follows with Producer Price Index data and the Fed's Beige Book, and Thursday stacks the UK's May GDP, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production prints at 06:00 GMT against US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT, seen cooling to 0.3% from 0.9%. Friday, July 17 delivers the University of Michigan preliminaries and, if nominations hold to form, a Labour leader confirmed at a special conference, handing Cable a new government and a fresh fiscal narrative inside five trading days.

Pound Sterling technical levels to watch

Resistance: 1.3450 caps the immediate advance, and beyond it 1.3500 marks the shelf that turned back the June rally; a weekly close through that zone opens 1.3650.

Support: The 200-day EMA just shy of 1.3400 is the line that validates or kills the breakout, with the 50-day EMA a touch above 1.3350 behind it and 1.3300 as the level where the July recovery would be declared dead.

Bias: Bullish while daily closes hold above the 200-day EMA, targeting 1.3450 then 1.3500; a daily close back below 1.3350 flips the call and targets 1.3300.


GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Jul 10, 05:07 HKT
Silver Price Forecast: Rebounds towards $60, but lower-low structure holds
  • Silver rebounds toward $60 but downtrend structure remains intact.
  • RSI improves below 50, suggesting buyers lack full control.
  • Break below $57.22 exposes $55.63 and $54.39 support.

Silver price surged by over 2.70% on Thursday, climbing near $60.00 as US Treasury yields retreated and the US Dollar dove by over 0.12%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $59.94, after bouncing off daily lows of $57.59.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The downtrend remains intact, with the structure of lower highs and lower lows intact,  even though the white metal has bounced off weekly lows below $58.00.

In the short term, momentum favours buyers, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but it remains below the 50-neutral level, suggesting a potential resumption of the downtrend.

If XAG/USD decisively clears the $60.00 figure, a move towards the July 6 swing high is on the cards. Once breached, buyers could challenge a downslope resistance trendline at around $64.70, before launching a strong attack on the confluence of the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $70.25

On the flip side, and also the path of least resistance, if Silver drops below the current week’s low of 57.22, it paves the way to test the June 24 cycle low of $55.63. Below this level, the next area of interest would be the November 12, 2025, daily high turned support at $54.39.

XAG/USD Price Chart — Daily

Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Jul 10, 04:35 HKT
Chinese Yuan: Fixing guidance fades, path less anchored – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong observes that Renminbi (RMB) appreciation guidance is waning, with CNH-CNY fixing gaps narrowing and daily adjustments moderating. Policymakers appear to be shifting toward RMB stability rather than further appreciation. As a result, USD/CNH may become more driven by the broader Dollar, yield differentials and China growth sentiment, leaving downside less anchored.

Stability focus shifts USD/CNH drivers

"The RMB appreciation impulse appears to show tentative signs of losing some official reinforcement. The CNH-CNY fixing gap has narrowed, while the pace of daily fixing adjustment has moderated."

"Recent fixes have also been less RMB-supportive versus market expectations (Bloomberg proxy), suggesting that the policymakers may be shifting back toward RMB stability management rather than guiding for further appreciation."

"If fixing guidance continues to fade, then RMB direction may potentially become more dependent on the broader USD, yield differentials and China growth sentiment."

"This can potentially mean that the downside path of USD/CNH may be less anchored. We flag this as a risk and will continue to monitor"

"USDCNH last at 6.8060 levels. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI is flat. 2-way trades likely. Resistance 6.8110 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 6.83 (100 DMA). Support at 6.7910 (50 DMA), 6.7880 (21 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 10, 04:07 HKT
Australian Dollar firms as US Dollar softens
  • AUD/USD trades higher despite stronger-than-expected US jobless claims.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, but the Greenback failed to gain traction.
  • China remains a key driver for the Aussie, with the former's PPI inflation rising 4.1% YoY, while its CPI slowed to 1.0%.

AUD/USD trades higher near the 0.6940 area on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from a softer US Dollar (USD), even after stronger-than-expected United States (US) jobless claims data showed that the labor market remains stable.

US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below expectations of 218K and the previous 217K, suggesting that layoffs remain limited. However, the Greenback failed to gain strong traction as the broader US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped for a second straight session, while markets continued to assess geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.

China also remains a key driver for the Aussie, given Australia’s strong trade exposure. China’s Producer Price Index (CPI) report, released late Wednesday, showed a 4.1% YoY rise in June, the fastest pace in four years, while China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1% YoY, highlighting stronger factory-gate inflation but still-soft domestic demand. This mixed backdrop may limit the Aussie’s upside even as AUD/USD benefits from USD weakness.

Chart Analysis AUD/USD


Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6939, hovering around the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which acts as a pivot after the latest consolidation. The pair holds above the 20-period SMA at 0.6937, offering nearby dynamic support, while a horizontal band of resistance between 0.6940 and 0.6946 caps the topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 5 sits in neutral territory, hintng at balanced momen and reinforcing a range-bound near-term bias.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.6940, followed by clustered barriers at 0.6944 and 0.6946, where repeated rejection could keep the pair confined to a tight range. On the downside, support is located first at the 20-period SMA at 0.6937, ahead of the horizontal floor at 0.6932. A sustained break below this area would open the door to a deeper pullback despite the current neutral momentum backdrop.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Jul 10, 04:00 HKT
South Korean Won: Rally versus sustained USD strength – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Howard Du with contributions from Jayati Bharadwaj and Linda Cheng, analyzes the recent Korean Won rally and its impact on USD/KRW. They argue that despite KRW strength, the broader US Dollar (USD) uptrend against South Korean Won (KRW) remains intact and is likely to persist until a new bearish USD cycle emerges, highlighting key technical levels and intervention risks.

USD/KRW uptrend seen resilient

"KRW is in focus for FX market as it has been the best-performing major currency in July. KRW outperformance is notable in light of rising crude oil price on resurgence of Middle East geopolitical risk and falling equity prices for semiconductor stocks."

"Recent KRW rally has caught the FX market's attention, and we discuss our outlook for USD/KRW. We believe the USD/KRW uptrend should remain in place until a new bearish USD wave forms."

"Despite KRW's recent outperformance, USD/KRW uptrend still remains intact. 1493-1494 in USD/KRW is a key level to watch, in our view, as we estimate this is the level where trend followers would be forced to flip short. For dip buyers who expect the USD uptrend to remain in place, we believe this would be the level to re-engage if spot price continues to hold above it in the next week."

"We believe in the near term the USD uptrend in USD/KRW is more likely to hold than not."

".... sustained USD/KRW downside has only occurred amid broadly weaker USD in recent years. We are currently long USD via USD/CNH forwards, and we expect the broad USD to stay resilient until Fed rate hikes start to get priced out on weaker US data."

"The main risk to our USD/KRW view would be FX intervention from local policymakers to prolong the bearish momentum and push USD/KRW materially lower."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 10, 03:46 HKT
Fed unveils Warsh task forces to lead broad review

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) unveiled on Thursday the members of the task forces announced by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his first monetary policy meeting. The statement also reiterated that the Fed’s commitment to price stability and its maximum employment mandate is "unwavering" and will be pursued “with rigor."

Each of the task forces will be integrated by three members, amongst whom are the former Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, former Governor at the Federal Reserve Jeremy Stein and Arminio Fraga, former president of the Central Bank of Brazil.

The five task forces will be focused on communications, the balance sheet policy, improving the quality and timeliness of economic data, productivity and jobs and developing inflation frameworks.

The task forces will be supported by Fed staff and are expected to operate independently, following the evidence to produce findings for the FOMC Fed statement.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Jul 10, 03:40 HKT
Mexican Peso gains as risk appetite improves, weighs on USD
  • Mexico headline CPI falls to the lowest level since December 2020.
  • Core inflation remains above target, keeping Banxico cautious.
  • Fed minutes and Williams' comments keep US tightening risks alive.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) registers solid gains of over 0.22% against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as risk appetite improves after two days of hostilities between the US and Iran ended, despite US President Donald Trump's warning that the deal might be “over.” The USD/MXN pair trades at 17.54 after reaching a daily high of 17.57.

USD/MXN slips due to US Dollar weakness

The emerging market currency is underpinned by broad US Dollar weakness. Data in Mexico showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June fell to its lowest level since December 2020, tumbling for the third straight month, down from 3.94% to 3.37% YoY, below estimates of 3.52%. Core inflation on an annual basis has risen to 4.03% YoY, slightly above Banxico’s 3% plus or minus 1% goal.

The data eases pressure on the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which last month decided to hold rates unchanged at 6.50%, while signaling that the main reference rate would remain unchanged through the end of 2026.

Additionally, Banxico’s meeting minutes showed that negotiations between the US and Iran helped cool inflationary pressures. 

According to a Citi Expectations Survey, most economists expect Banxico’s main reference rate to remain at 6.50% for the rest of the year and in 2027.

The recent FOMC meeting minutes in the US indicated that most officials supported additional Federal Reserve tightening, while those advocating a rate increase preferred to pause and gather more data. Prime Terminal data shows that money markets currently assign an 87% probability of a rate hike in 2026.

Earlier, New York Fed President John Williams expressed concern that inflation remains “far too high" and emphasized the importance of monetary policy in addressing energy prices' impact on inflation. Williams reaffirmed the Fed’s goal of returning inflation to 2% and noted that policy decisions "must remain" data-dependent.

Traders are now looking ahead to next week’s economic releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims, and housing market data.

USD/MXN Price Foreast: Technical outlook

Chart Analysis USD/MXN
USD/MXN daily chart

In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.54, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias as it holds above the triple simple moving average cluster around 17.37. Price is currently testing a descending resistance trend line drawn from 18.17, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 56 stays in positive territory, hinting at constructive momentum but not yet a decisive breakout above the broader downtrend structure.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the grouped 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages near 17.37, where a daily close below would soften the bullish tone and open the way for a deeper pullback. On the topside, immediate resistance comes from the tested downward trend line around the current price zone, ahead of a stronger barrier at the higher descending resistance line close to 18.12, where a sustained push above that area would reinforce the recovery and expose the 18.00–18.10 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Mexican Peso FAQs

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Jul 10, 03:36 HKT
Japanese Yen: Yen eyes BoJ and key resistance zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe the Japanese Yen trading broadly in line with G10 peers, with near-term focus on the June PPI release and the July 31 Bank of Japan meeting. They note material resistance in USD/JPY above 162.50, close to last week’s multi-decade high, while markets still price only about 25 bps of BoJ tightening by year-end.

Resistance near multi-decade highs

"The yen is also trading in tandem with most of its G10 peers and offering little differentiation in terms of its performance."

"Overnight data were limited and near-term risk lies with the 7:50pm ET release of PPI."

"Short-term price action in USD/JPY suggests material resistance above 162.50, with all eyes on last week’s multi-decade high around 162.80."

"Media reports of an acceleration in the BoJ’s tightening path may offer the JPY support, however rate expectations remain relatively muted into the July 31 rate decision with markets still pricing only about 25bpts of tightening by year-end."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 10, 03:17 HKT
Eurozone: Energy shock keeps pressure on ECB – Nordea

Jan von Gerich highlights that Eurozone inflation risks remain skewed to the upside due to a persistent energy shock linked to Middle East tensions. Even under milder energy scenarios, he stresses that supply chain disruptions, higher production costs and firm-level price adjustments are already embedded, leaving the ECB unconvinced that inflation will quickly return to target.

Persistent energy shock sustains risks

"All members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to the staff baseline projections, with the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East being the key source of risk."

"With the energy shock proving more persistent than had been envisaged at the time of the March and April meetings, and indirect effects starting to become increasingly visible and broad-based, the inflation outlook had deteriorated further."

"Looking ahead, it was cautioned that even a sustainable resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would not necessarily mean an end to the shock."

"Even under a milder scenario with less elevated energy prices – which might emerge if the conflict was resolved promptly and sustainably – a significant portion of the inflationary damage from the shock would already have worked its way into the broader economy."

"In particular, supply chain disruptions, higher production costs and firm-level price adjustments would not simply or quickly reverse with the resolution of the conflict."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Jul 10, 03:02 HKT
Singapore Dollar: Range bias holds above 1.2890 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD’s mild downward pressure has eased, with the pair expected to stay range-bound. Intraday, the Dollar is seen trading between 1.2920 and 1.2960, while over the next 1–3 weeks UOB projects a broader 1.2890–1.2990 band. On a 1–3 month horizon, a break above 1.3000 could open a move toward 1.3095.

Dollar-Singapore Dollar seen range-bound

"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 1.2930 in the early Asian session yesterday, we were of the view that it “is likely to edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “it is unlikely to break above 1.2955.” Our view of a higher USD was not wrong, even though USD rose to a high of 1.2956 before easing to close at 1.2938 (+0.07%). The slight increase in upward momentum is insufficient to indicate a continued rise in USD. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a higher range of 1.2920/1.2960."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After expecting USD to trade in a 1.2890/1.2990 range for several days, we highlighted on Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 1.2915) that “downward momentum has ticked up, and the risk of USD breaking below 1.2890 is increasing.” We added, “a breach of 1.2955 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to continue to trade in a range.” Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 1.2956. Although our ‘strong resistance’ level was only slightly breached, the mild downward pressure has eased. From here, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2890 and 1.2990."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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