Forex News
- AUD/USD falls to near 0.7035 as the US Dollar bounces back.
- Traders doubt over US President Trump stating that the Iran deal has been approved by its top leadership.
- The RBA is expected to leave its OCR steady at 4.35% on Tuesday.
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.22% to near 0.7035 in the early European trade on Friday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds, following Iran’s denial upon agreeing to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States (US), as reported by Iran’s Fars News agency, which President Donald Trump claimed to have been agreed by Tehran’s top leadership.
During press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 99.85.
On Thursday, US President Trump said that planned attacks on Iran have been called off, and discussions and final points of the peace deal have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved. However, he clarified that the US naval blockade on Iranian sea ports will remain intact until the deal is finalized.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy, which will be announced on Tuesday. According to the latest Reuters poll, the RBA will halt its monetary tightening cycle and leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%. This year, the RBA has already raised its OCR by 75 basis points (bps).
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7035, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7103 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7054.
The pair is hovering just above the 61.8% retracement at 0.7002, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 hints at weak, but not extreme, downside momentum after the recent slide from the mid-0.72 area.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7002, ahead of the 78.6% level at 0.6929 and the swing low anchor around the 100% retracement at 0.6834. On the topside, a recovery would first need to clear the 50% retracement at 0.7054, followed by a dense resistance zone formed by the 20-day EMA at 0.7103 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.7106, with further bullish scope only opening toward the 23.6% level at 0.7171 and the recent cycle high near 0.7274.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBA Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.35%
Previous: 4.35%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
- Silver price may fall toward the lower falling wedge boundary around $61.80.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 38.91 suggests downside momentum.
- The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of $68.88.
XAG/USD edges lower after registering over 6% gains in the previous day, trading around $67.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows a falling wedge pattern, which suggests a strong bullish reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.91 sits in weak territory, hinting at subdued downside momentum but not yet signaling oversold conditions that could trigger a more decisive corrective bounce.
However, Silver price holds well below the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the near-term bias bearish as recent rebounds fail to reclaim even short-term trend gauges.
On the downside, Silver price may navigate the region around the lower falling wedge boundary around $61.80, aligned with the six-month low of $61.01, recorded on March 23.
The XAG/USD pair could find immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of $68.88, followed by the upper boundary of the falling wedge around $70.10. A break above this confluence resistance zone would support the Silver price to target the 50-day EMA at $74.68. Further advances would expose the three-month high of $90.03, reached on March 10.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold meets with a fresh supply on Friday as the Iran peace deal uncertainty lifts the USD.
- Hawkish Fed expectations further support the USD and weigh on the non-yielding bullion.
- The XAU/USD pair remains on track to register heavy losses for the second straight week.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers near the $4,246-$4,247 region during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's solid recovery move from its lowest level since November 2025. Mixed signals regarding a potential US-Iran peace deal revive demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the precious metal. Furthermore, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations contribute to driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a deal had been reached with Iran and the final document could be signed soon, perhaps even over the weekend. The optimism, however, fades rather quickly as Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement. Furthermore, reports suggest that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not agreed to the proposed US peace deal. Adding to this, Iran's Foreign Ministry reportedly said that key issues, including Hormuz access and frozen funds, remain unresolved, per Fars.
Meanwhile, Iranian forces blocked a tanker from transiting through the strategic waterway without coordination, underscoring uncertainty over Iran's position. Adding to this, Fox News reported that US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments keep geopolitical risk premiums in play and trigger a modest recovery in Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns. This comes amid signs of re-accelerating inflation in the US, backing the case for higher-for-longer interest rates.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released this week pointed to re-accelerating inflation, reaffirming bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. This further acts as a tailwind for the Greenback and weighs on the Gold. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register heavy losses for the second consecutive week.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold fails to clear 23.6% Fibo. immediate hurdle; bearish bias remains
From a technical perspective, the precious metal retains a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, Friday's failure near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of downfall from the April monthly swing high suggests that the overnight recovery might still be categorized as a short-covering move.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with the line below its signal and a still-negative histogram. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, both of which hint that downside pressure persists despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. around $4,229, followed by the 38.2% level near $4,355. Higher up, the 200-day SMA at about $4,450 and the adjacent 50% retracement at roughly $4,456 form a stronger cap, before the 61.8% level at $4,558 and the 78.6% retracement at $4,703 open the way toward the $4,887 cycle high. On the downside, the key support to watch is the recent swing low around $4,026, where a break would signal scope for a deeper corrective leg.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.23% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.11% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.13% | 0.09% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | -0.21% | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.10% | 0.05% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said on Friday that the interest rate hike yesterday was necessary as high energy prices are increasingly having an indirect effect on other prices.
Key quotes
Rate hike was necessary as high energy prices are increasingly having an indirect effect on other prices.
The supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East is proving to be strong and persistent.
We are keeping all our options open for July and are ready to respond once again, should we have to.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is down 0.10% on the day to trade at 1.1566.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- WTI bears turn cautious on Friday amid mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal.
- Iran countered Trump's claim that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend.
- The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for further near-term slide.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near its lowest level since April 17, touched during the Asian session earlier this Friday. The commodity currently trades around the $84.65-$84.70 region, down 0.50% for the day, though it lacks bearish conviction amid the uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal.
US President Donald Trump said that a deal had been reached with Iran and the final document could be signed soon, perhaps even over the weekend, which triggered a massive sell off around Crude Oil prices on Thursday. However, Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement. Adding to this, Iranian forces blocked a tanker from transiting through the strategic Strait of Hormuz without coordination, keeping geopolitical risk premiums in play and acting as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias stays bearish as the commodity now seems to have found acceptance below the $85.00 horizontal support, which coincided with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 40, hinting at persistent weak momentum, while the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading reinforces a downside-skewed tone. This keeps the recent pullback intact following the failure to sustain above the $90.00 mark.
.On the topside, the 100-day SMA, levels just above the $85.00 mark, is the first resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate selling pressure and open the door toward the $90 region. Until that barrier is cleared on a daily closing basis, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within a broader consolidation, leaving WTI vulnerable to further retracements toward recent lows in the sub-$80.00 levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Indian Rupee opens strongly against the US Dollar as fresh de-escalation in US-Iran tensions weakens oil prices.
- India’s Fiscal Budget is expected to widen to 4.8% of GDP this year amid Middle East crisis.
- Investors await India’s CPI data for May, which is seen arriving higher at 4% YoY.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens sharply higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair tumbles to near 95.25 as remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he called off planned strikes on Iran and that both nations are close to finalizing the permanent peace deal have subsided fears of a prolonged Middle East war, resulting in a further decline in oil prices.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 bounces back after a weak opening, but is still 1.62% to near 8,207 from Thursday’s closing price.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves when oil prices come under pressure.
Trump says Iran agreement is in final stage
On Thursday, US President Trump said in an event at the Oval Office that he has canceled planned military strikes on Iran, as negotiators from both sides are on “final elements of the deal”. Trump added, “Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved.” He further added that both parties will be signing the deal soon, and “Time and place of signing to be announced shortly.”
Meanwhile, Tehran has clarified that it has not yet agreed to any document for a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the US.
The announcement of canceling planned strikes on Iran resulted in a broad risk rally and a significant decline in oil prices and the US Dollar.
Considering broader risk-on sentiment, Indian stock markets have opened on a strong note. Nifty 50 rises almost 250 points to near 23,400, and Sensex 30 jumps almost 1.4% to near 74,800.
FIIs keep paring stake in Indian stock market
So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days of June, offloading their stake worth Rs. 64,641.43 crore. Overseas investors have been paring their stake in the Indian stock market due to uncertainty over India Inc.’s earnings projections in the wake of Middle East conflicts.
India’s Fiscal Deficit to widen to 4.8% of GDP this year
According to a report from Bloomberg, India is preparing for a wider-than-expected budget deficit this year, as the war in Iran drives up energy subsidy costs and adds pressure on government finances. However, it has not been confirmed by Indian authorities.
Authorities are willing to let the deficit widen by as much as 0.5% to 4.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared with the 4.3% goal set in February.
India’s CPI data awaited
Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 04:00 PM IST (10:30 GMT). India’s CPI data is expected to arrive at an annualized pace of 4%, higher than 3.48% in April.
The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy outlook.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays inside Symmetrical Triangle formation
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.25 in the opening trade on Friday. The Symmetrical Triangle formation, along with spot's stickiness to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.43, reflects that the overall trend has become sideways. The recent pullback has dragged the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward a neutral 49.8 area, hinting at fading upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, which keeps the focus on overhead supply rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 20-day EMA near 95.43, with a stronger barrier emerging at the prior trend-line break zone close to 95.97, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current pressure and reopen the path toward the all-time high around 97.10. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the rising structural floor from the upward trend line near 94.79, where a break would likely signal a deeper corrective phase toward the May 7 low at 94.03.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- GBP/USD flatlines near 1.3415 in Friday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps the bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.3420; the first downside target to watch is 1.3343.
The GBP/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.3415 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the monthly UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The UK economy is expected to contract by 0.1% in April, compared to an expansion of 0.3% in the previous reading. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
On the other hand, uncertainty in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair. Fox News reported on Friday that US forces intercepted and shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attempted to target commercial vessels transiting the waterway.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades with a mildly bearish near-term bias, holding under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger upper band. Price is also fractionally below the Bollinger middle band, keeping spot capped by nearby dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48 leans neutral and suggests a consolidative tone rather than impulsive selling for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around 1.3420, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3472, with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3500 reinforcing a wider supply zone. On the downside, the next notable support is the lower Bollinger band around 1.3343, where a break would open the door to a deeper retracement within the broader range.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Asian equities rise on improved sentiment following President Trump's hint of a weekend Iran peace deal.
- SpaceX anticipates a Wall Street debut that targets a $1.78 trillion valuation, with the aerospace giant looking to raise approximately $75 billion.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumps 3.38%, while South Korea’s KOSPI surges 8.29% at the time of writing.
Asian equities advance on Friday as market sentiment improved on lower oil prices after US President Donald Trump indicated that a peace agreement with Iran could be finalized as early as this weekend. This diplomatic pivot comes on the heels of the President delaying planned military strikes, though he had previously warned that the US could target Iran's energy infrastructure.
Market sentiment also received a significant boost ahead of SpaceX's highly anticipated Wall Street debut. The aerospace giant is expected to raise approximately $75 billion, targeting a projected market valuation of $1.78 trillion. Driven by this optimism, technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks led the broader market gains.
During the Asian hours, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 3.38% to near 66,400, while South Korea’s KOSPI advances 8.29%, trading above 8,400 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up by 2.03%, trading around 24,750. China’s SSE Composite Index gains 1.56% to near 4,050.
Japan’s stock market may face a potential headwind as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely anticipated to lift interest rates next week in response to persistent inflation. Economists project a 25-basis-point hike, which would push the policy rate to 1%, marking its highest level since 1995 and the first increase since December of last year. Adding an unexpected layer of uncertainty to the high-stakes decision, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the policy meeting due to being hospitalized with a hepatic cyst infection.
Meanwhile, neighboring markets enjoyed strong upward momentum. South Korea’s KOSPI index received a massive boost from a roaring semiconductor sector, as investors aggressively returned to AI-linked chipmakers following a strong rebound in US technology shares. This tech rally propelled Samsung Electronics up 12.0% and SK Hynix up 8.5%. At the same time, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index marched higher, driven by gains in heavyweight financial, technology, and retail stocks, which easily overshadowed a minor decline in the communication sector.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- AUD/JPY drifts higher to near 112.80 in Friday’s early European session.
- The positive view for the cross prevails, but bullish momentum has cooled, with the RSI holding below the midline.
- The first upside barrier is located at 133.18; the initial support level to watch is 112.25.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 112.80 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on hopes that a Middle East peace deal may finally materialize.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, just hours after threatening more strikes on Iran. Trump added that negotiations with Iran had advanced to the highest levels of Iran's leadership and had been approved by a broad coalition of regional powers. The positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal boost a riskier currency, such as the Aussie against the JPY.
A Reuters poll showed on Friday that a majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% on June 16, pausing after three hikes. Meanwhile, 26 of 44 economists see the cash rate at 4.35% at end-September, while 18 project 4.60% or higher.
Intervention fears from Japanese authorities might support the Japanese Yen and create a headwind for the cross. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that officials are monitoring speculative moves and remain prepared to take decisive measures to prevent the domestic currency weakness.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, keeping the broader uptrend underpinned despite the recent pullback from the highs. However, a soft Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 hints that bullish momentum has cooled, suggesting upside progress could be more laboured in the near term.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the June 9 high of 133.18. The next hurdle to watch is the Bollinger middle band around 113.60, with a break there opening the way toward the upper band near 114.95. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25 and then the 100-day SMA at 111.82, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,883.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,936.00 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 150,275.60 per tola from INR 150,882.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,883.65 |
10 Grams | 128,838.70 |
Tola | 150,275.60 |
Troy Ounce | 400,726.20 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
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