Forex News

• USD/CAD extends clear uptrend as bulls target 1.4200 resistance.
• RSI near extreme overbought levels warns of pullback risk.
• Break above 1.4200 exposes 1.4273 and 1.4415 targets.

The USD/CAD rises during the North American session, up by 0.27% on Friday and by over 1.34% in the week, with the pair staying upward biased and set to test higher prices seen last year. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.4175, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.4131.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Price action shows a clear uptrend, with USD/CAD poised to test 1.4200 in the short term. Momentum is also extremely bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RS), which is above the overbought level of 70 and near an extreme at 86.45, indicating the pair is subject to a pullback.

For a bullish continuation, the USD/CAD must clear 1.4200. A breach of the latter will expose April 9, 2025, at 1.4273, followed by April 1, 2025, at 1.4415.

On the flip side, if USD/CAD drops below 1.4150, sellers could test the psychological 1.4100 mark. Below this level is the June 11 daily high turned support at 1.4024, followed by the June 15 daily low of 1.3994. On further weakness, the next stop would be the June 10 swing low of 1.3899.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily

• AUD/USD trades sideways as hawkish Fed and RBA signals offset each other.
• A heavy slate of economic data next week puts the focus on the Australian CPI and the US PCE Price Index.
• Technically, AUD/USD remains under pressure, with the RSI below the neutral 50 mark and price below the 20-day SMA.

AUD/USD trades little changed on Friday as hawkish policy signals from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offset each other, keeping the pair range-bound despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7011 and remains on track for a weekly loss.

Earlier this week, both the Fed and RBA kept interest rates unchanged but signaled openness to rate hikes later this year amid persistent inflation as policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to their respective targets.

Meanwhile, easing tensions in the Middle East is providing some support to risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie. Still, upside in AUD/USD could remain limited as traders await fresh economic data for clues on the future path of interest rates in both the United States and Australia.

Next week's economic calendar features Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labor market data, along with the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and the final reading of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Traders will also monitor preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys and the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) interest rate decision. The Australian Dollar is highly sensitive to Chinese economic data, given Australia's close trade ties with China.

Technical analysis:

On the daily chart, AUD/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias, with spot remaining below the Bollinger middle band, which corresponds to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7091. Although the pair remains comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6852, the failure to reclaim the 20-day SMA suggests sellers retain control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 remains below the neutral 50 mark, pointing to persistent bearish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 31 indicates the downtrend is gaining strength.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day SMA/Bollinger midline near 0.7091, with the upper Bollinger band around 0.7220 acting as the next hurdle. On the downside, immediate support is located near the lower Bollinger band around 0.6963, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6852. A decisive break below the latter would reinforce the broader bearish outlook.

• Fed repricing drives DXY above 101.00, pressuring non-yielding Gold.
• Two-year yields surge as markets price September hike risk.
• Core PCE and GDP data anchor next week’s macro focus.

Gold (XAU/USD) price edges lower by some 1.69% on Friday, poised to end with losses for the third consecutive week.At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,147, weighed by overall US Dollar strength sparked by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to keep interest rates higher for longer.

XAU/USD falls as Dollar strength, rising US yields bite

A risk-on mood is weighing on non-yielding metals, as investors turn to US Treasuries, which pay a yield, and the US Dollar, which is at 13-month highs above 101.00, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The US-Iran deal shifted traders' sentiment, though it remains fragile as Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes, before newswires reported that both sides favor a ceasefire, adhering to the deal signed by Washington and Tehran. Nevertheless, the Washington Post revealed that US intelligence warned the Trump administration that Israel’s President Benjamin Netanyahu could take the steps to “sabotage” the deal as he faces political pressure.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alleviated Oil supply disruptions, easing inflationary pressures. However, some major central banks have taken steps to tame inflation, with the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking rates by 25 basis points on June 11, followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday.

Adding its name to the list could be the Federal Reserve, which, at its last meeting, hinted that nearly half of the FOMC board members are eyeing at least one rate hike in 2026.

US Treasury yields are rising sharply, with the 2-year T-note, the most sensitive to market expectations of rate hikes, rising 13 basis points after the Fed’s meeting, driving Gold prices towards six-day lows of $4,121.

Prime Terminal data showed that money markets are pricing in 18 basis points of Fed tightening at the September 16 meeting, implying a 72% chance of a rate hike.

The US investment bank Goldman Sachs cut its Gold price forecast to $4,900 per troy ounce by December, $500 less than its previous estimates.

Investors' eyes are on next week’s US economic docket, mainly the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q1 2026, the last estimate, along with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s downtrend to continue below 200-day SMA

Gold remains biased downward, after dropping below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,466. Price action depicts a series of lower highs and lower lows, though a decisive break below $4,100 would clear the way to challenge the current year-to-date (YTD) low of $4,023, set on June 11.

Momentum is still bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI’s slope points downwards, with room before it turns oversold.

Hence, if XAU/USD dives below $4,100, the $4,000 is up for grabs. Below this level, the yellow metal’s next stop will be the October 28, 2025 swing low of $3,886.

On the bullish front, Gold must reclaim the June 17 cycle high of $4,382. Once cleared, the buyer's eyes need to be on the 200-day SMA. If those levels are taken,$4,500 emerges as the next area of interest.

• NZD/USD breaks 200-day SMA, confirming bearish technical shift lower.
• Three-day slide exposes January low and 0.5700 support zone.
• Reclaiming 0.5800 needed to challenge 200-day SMA resistance.

The New Zealand Dollar dives for the third consecutive day, down in the week by over 1.48%, after hitting two-month lows of 0.5722 against the Greenback. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5738, down 0.25% on the day.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish tilt, the NZD/USD rose from around 0.5800ish to near 0.6000 before recoiling beneath the 0.5750 figure. Broad US Dollar strength due to the US-Iran conflict, along with the pair diving below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5833, a technical level that suggests an asset is bullish or bearish, depending on whether it's above or below.

Therefore, the NZD/USD path of least resistance is downwards. The next support is the January 9 low of 0.5711, ahead of 0.5700. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the April 3 swing low of 0.5679, before testing the psychological 0.5650 mark.

For a bullish reversal, buyers must challenge the 0.5800 level to push NZD/USD towards the 200-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at 0.5875.

NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily

• USD/JPY loses momentum after its recent rally, while the Japanese Yen remains fragile.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh introduced communication changes, including a shorter policy statement, the removal of forward guidance, and five task forces to review key Fed frameworks.
• The Japanese Yen remains near forty-year lows as intervention talk heats up.

The USD/JPY pair trades near 161.00 on Friday, easing slightly after reaching a two-year high of 161.81 on Thursday, and breaking a five-day winning streak for the US Dollar (USD).The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains fragile as pressure mounts over a possible new intervention by authorities to strengthen the currency.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is taking a breather after the rally fueled by the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting earlier this week. Chair Kevin Warsh introduced several changes to the Fed’s communication strategy. He said the policy statement would become shorter, simpler, and more focused on facts, while removing forward guidance. The new Fed Chair also announced five task forces to review communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment, and the inflation framework.

The BoJ said Governor Kazuo Ueda will return to the office from June 23 after being discharged from the hospital, while continuing outpatient treatment for about two more weeks. Ueda had missed the latest policy meeting due to treatment for an infected liver cyst, leaving Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino to lead the post-meeting communication.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.27, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 160.77 and 160.14, respectively. The pair is also trading above nearby horizontal support at 161.13, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 66 suggests firm but not yet extreme upside momentum, hinting that buyers still control the tape as long as these underlying levels remain intact.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 161.30, followed by a more notable cap at 161.45, where a break higher would likely open the way for an extension of the uptrend. On the downside, immediate protection is seen at 161.13, ahead of 161.00, with deeper pullbacks likely to encounter dynamic support at the 20-period SMA near 160.77 and then the 100-period SMA around 160.14.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• USD/CHF broke to a fresh high for the year as the Franc slid against every major peer.
• The Franc was no safe haven in this war; it lost ground throughout as the SNB leaned against any strength.
• De-escalation and a softer SNB intervention line this week simply removed the last prop under the Franc.

The Swiss Franc is the weakest major into the weekly close, dragging USD/CHF to a fresh high for the year. The tidy explanation is a wartime safe-haven bid unwinding now that the US and Iran have struck a deal; the trouble is that the Franc was never much of a haven in this war. It spent the conflict on the back foot. What looks like a haven unwinding is really the removal of the last excuse for the Franc to be anything but weak.

The haven that never showed up

Look back to the war's opening days in early March: the Franc did flicker, spiking against the Euro to its strongest in more than a decade as money fled to safety. The flicker lasted about a session. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) leaned on it at once with intervention warnings; even on day one the Franc was losing against the US Dollar, whose own haven bid and yield edge proved stronger. From there it only softened. By late March the Franc sat at multi-month lows against the Dollar, with analysts openly tagging it a war loser rather than a refuge. Two things drove that: near-zero Swiss inflation, which let the country absorb an energy-price surge without tightening, and an SNB that kept selling Francs to cap any strength.

A central bank that wants it weak

That same SNB gave the move its blessing on Thursday, not that it would phrase it that way. The bank held its policy rate at 0% as universally expected and nudged its near-term inflation forecast only a touch higher. The tell was the currency language: after months of warning it stood ready to intervene against a too-strong Franc, the SNB this week qualified that warning with an "if necessary" caveat. Pressed on whether the softer wording meant less urgency now that the Middle East is calming, the chair declined to confirm the bank's resolve was any greater than before, pointing instead to the rate gap with the European Central Bank (ECB) and offering no pushback on the slide. For a central bank thought to have sold some $3 billion of Francs in March to keep a lid on strength, that reads as quiet contentment with a cheaper Franc; traders took it as licence to keep selling.

Still the cleanest funding leg

Strip out the haven question and the structural case for a soft Franc is intact. At 0% the Franc is among the cleanest funding currencies in the market, the natural short leg whenever volatility falls and carry trades come back on. Both of those are happening as the war premium drains out of markets. The tell that this is Franc-specific rather than a blanket risk rally is the Yen, its usual partner in the funding and haven trade, holding broadly firm on the day rather than sinking alongside it. When the two classic funding havens diverge this sharply, the story is about the Franc itself: a currency its own central bank has spent months trying to weaken, finally cooperating.

The peace is already fraying

The peace doing the talking is shakier than the price action implies. The memorandum was rushed to signing midweek, two days early, with Trump signing at a Versailles dinner while his Iranian counterpart signed remotely; the planned Geneva ceremony was then scrapped as redundant. The negotiations meant to give the deal substance never started. Talks due to open Friday in Switzerland were postponed within two days as fighting flared again between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with no firm restart on the calendar. The Franc is being sold on a signature even as the diplomacy behind it stalls on day two.

The break is real but stretched

On the daily chart USD/CHF has done real technical damage to the downtrend. The pair spent most of 2026 capped by its 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.7950 and has now closed decisively above it, clearing the 0.8000 handle and the 50 EMA on the way. The catch is momentum: the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits deep in overbought territory above 80, with price pressing a fresh high and little overhead structure to lean on. That is a confirmed break running on fumes, exposed to a snap-back if the Lebanon flare-up reignites haven demand or the SNB's intervention bias re-fires.

Resistance: The immediate ceiling is the year's high near 0.8100; a sustained push through it opens largely clear air toward 0.8150, untravelled in 2026.

Support: First support is the 0.8000 handle, with the former 200 EMA cap around 0.7950 the next shelf once it flips to support; below that, the 50 EMA close to 0.7900 marks where the breakout would start to look suspect.

Bias: Lower Franc, higher USD/CHF while the pair holds above 0.7950, with the year's high near 0.8100 and then 0.8150 the upside targets. The conviction here is structural rather than narrative: the move rests on a central bank that wants a weaker Franc and a funding role reasserting itself, not on a haven unwind the war never delivered. A daily close back beneath 0.7950 would void the break; the clearest trigger for that is the Lebanon fighting dragging the ceasefire back into doubt and reviving the haven bid the Franc never got to enjoy.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF climbs to its highest level since November 2025 as Fed-SNB policy divergence favors the Greenback.
• Fed officials keep the door open to rate hikes, while subdued Swiss inflation allows the SNB to stay on hold.
• Technically, USD/CHF retains a bullish bias with the RSI nearing overbought territory.

USD/CHF extends gains on Friday even as the US Dollar (USD) eases slightly after rising to more than one-year highs. Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) keep demand tilted toward the US Dollar over the Swiss Franc (CHF).

At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.8080, its highest level since November 2025. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.80 after touching 101.13 earlier in the day, its highest level since May 2025.

Earlier this week, both the Fed and SNB left interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed struck a hawkish tone as policymakers reiterated their commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% target, while the updated dot plot showed that nearly half of FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year.

Meanwhile, low inflation in Switzerland has allowed policymakers to maintain their current policy stance. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Thursday that "at the moment it is not necessary to act on interest rates" and added that "everything between 0% and 2% is fine on inflation."

Against this backdrop, the near-term technical outlook for USD/CHF remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching overbought territory and the pair trading comfortably above its key long-term moving averages.

Technical analysis:

On the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8080 with a constructive bullish bias, holding above both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.7849 and 0.7907, respectively.

The location of price over these medium- and long-term SMAs suggests the recent advance remains supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.6 flirts with overbought territory and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 27 hints that the developing uptrend is gaining strength rather than merely consolidating.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the nearby horizontal barrier at 0.8100; a daily close above this level would open the door toward the next resistance at 0.8300, ahead of 0.8500. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA around 0.7907, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7849 reinforcing a deeper demand zone should a corrective pullback unfold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• NZD/USD trades around 0.5740 on Friday, down 0.28% on the day and close to its lowest levels since April.
• The US Dollar remains supported by expectations of additional monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve.
• The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah improves market sentiment, but its impact on the USD remains limited.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5740 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.28% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to benefit from expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance in the United States (US). The pair is on track for a third consecutive daily decline and remains near its lowest levels since April.

Market sentiment received some support late in the week after Reuters reported, citing a senior US official, that Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire effective from Friday afternoon. According to the official, US and Qatari negotiators helped broker the agreement with assistance from Iran. The development temporarily eases fears of further regional escalation and supports a modest improvement in risk appetite.

However, the impact of the announcement on currency markets remains limited. Investors continue to favor the US Dollar, which is supported by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Projections released this week showed that policymakers now expect the Federal Funds Rate to reach 3.8% by the end of the year, up from 3.4% in the March forecasts, reinforcing expectations of another rate hike in the coming months.

Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty has not fully disappeared. CNN reported that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip for talks with Iran in Switzerland, maintaining a degree of caution among investors despite the ceasefire announcement. However, Iran confirmed that the agreement with the US to end the war had been signed digitally, making Friday’s meeting in Switzerland no longer urgent.

On the New Zealand side, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is finding limited support from the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The central bank recently indicated that its Official Cash Rate could reach around 2.85% by the end of the year, implying the possibility of several additional rate hikes. This outlook is helping to limit losses for the Kiwi against the US Dollar, although the current market dynamic remains dominated by broad-based Greenback strength.

• GBP/USD recovers from a nearly three-month low but remains a weekly loser.
• Fed’s hawkish tilt keeps DXY anchored near 13-month highs.
• Ceasefire strains and UK politics cloud Sterling’s recovery.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground after nearing a three-month low on Friday at 1.3163, sponsored by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, but edges up 0.18% amid thin trading conditions due to a holiday in the US. GBP/USD trades at 1.3226, yet it is poised to end with weekly losses of 1.25%.

GBP/USD trims losses as traders weigh Fed, BoE and geopolitics

Market sentiment remains fragile despite the recovery from the US-Iran deal. During the last two days, hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel tested the Middle East agreement signed digitally by Washington and Tehran.

Recently, a Hezbollah source stated that if Israel adheres to the ceasefire, they will adhere, but if Israel does not, they have the right to respond according to Al-Jadeed. Regarding this, an Israeli official said that we are in a test of the ceasefire now, but if Hezbollah attacks, they will respond, Channel 13 reported.

Back to macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt, sparked by nearly half of the FOMC members expecting a rate hike towards year-end, drove the Greenback to a 13-month high of 101.13, with the May 16, 2025, peak at 101.26, in sight. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's value against six currencies, is flat but remains above 101.00.

The DXY added to gains due to the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, though news that Hezbollah and the Israeli army declared a ceasefire relieved traders.

In the UK, the schedule provided a benign inflation reading before the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision on Thursday, in which they held rates at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split, with Pill and Greene opting for a rate hike, sponsored by households seeing inflation expectations at the highest level since 2009.

Furthermore, UK data showed that retail sales were stronger than expected, but other data showed a larger-than-expected budget deficit. This adds to investors' fears that fiscal spending could get out of control, along with Labour Mayor Andy Burnham's victory in northern England, setting the stage for a clash with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

What’s in the calendar for the next week?

Next week, the UK economic docket will feature Flash PMIs and speeches by Bank of England officials. Across the pond, the US schedule will feature speeches by Federal Reserve officials, Flash PMIs, housing and jobs data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3227 with a bearish near-term bias, as spot holds below the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) grouped around 1.3463 and beneath the descending resistance trend line that broke near 1.3546. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34 is edging toward oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but could moderate if sellers hesitate around nearby structural floors.

On the topside, initial resistance is reinforced by the triple SMA cluster around 1.3463, with the descending trend-line barrier near 1.3546 acting as the next cap should a corrective bounce extend. On the downside, immediate focus is on the current-price area around 1.3227 as a short-term pivot, with more meaningful chart support emerging closer to the prior uptrend reference near 1.3159; a sustained break below this latter zone would expose deeper losses in the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• EUR/USD rebounds from a three-month low as the US Dollar retreats from one-year highs.
• Renewed Fed rate-hike bets keep the Greenback supported despite easing geopolitical tensions.
• Hawkish ECB rhetoric and last week's 25 bps rate hike provide little support to the Euro.

EUR/USD stages a rebound on Friday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) helps the Euro (EUR) stabilize after recent losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1470 after bouncing from a three-month low of 1.1417 touched earlier in the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases after Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire, one of Iran's key demands under the 60-day MoU reached earlier this week.

The DXY, which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.81 after touching 101.13 earlier in the day, its highest level since May 2025.

Despite easing geopolitical tensions, the US Dollar remains underpinned by renewed hawkish repricing of US interest rates, leaving EUR/USD on track to end the week in negative territory.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled that interest rate hikes remain on the table as policymakers seek to restore inflation to their 2% target following a recent pickup in price pressure driven by higher Oil prices.

Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) following last week's 25 basis-point rate hike have failed to provide meaningful support to the Euro.

ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Friday that "if data is not going in the right direction, I would plead for a second hike in July." He added that "if we see higher services inflation, we may want to hike another 25 bps to be on the safe side," but noted that the ECB could cut rates "when the dynamics turn."

Analysts at Nordea said they see "limited upside for EUR/USD in the near term, as the ECB is likely closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Fed and growth in the euro area continues to lag behind the US." They added that their "baseline is for EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next few months, before gradually moving higher as US exceptionalism fades and the Fed eventually starts to cut rates ahead of the ECB."

Looking ahead, traders will focus on preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and the United States next week, along with the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.