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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Dec 13, 05:19 HKT
Trump eyes Warsh and Hassett as top contenders to replace Powell in 2026 - WSJ

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the US President Donald Trump revealed that he is leaning on former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and also on the National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve since May 2026.

When asked if Kevin Warsh was at the top of the list Trump said “Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both—I think the two Kevins are great,” he said. “I think there are a couple of other people that are great.”

The article mentioned that Warsh was grilled over a 45 minute meeting on Wednesday at the White House in which Trump pressed Warsh on whether he could trust him to support lower interest rates.

Trump said that he though the next Fed Chair should consult with him on where to set interest rates.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

 

Dec 13, 05:06 HKT
Silver Price Analysis: Drops after hitting all-time high, retracement risk looms
  • Silver drops 2.75% to $61.84 after printing a fresh all-time high at $64.65.
  • Bearish engulfing pattern and RSI negative divergence warn of a near-term retracement risk.
  • Key support sits at $61.00, then $60.09 and $59.33; resistance reappears near $62.00.

Silver prices plunges after hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $64.65 losses 2.75% as investors book profits ahead of the weekend, as Federal Reserve officials remain divided about future monetary policy meetings. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $61.84.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal remains upward biased but in the short-term could be headed for a retracement. Price action shows the formation of a ‘bearish engulfing’ candle chart pattern, an indication that sellers outweigh buyers. Nevertheless, there are signs of a potential negative divergence as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) it reaches a lower peak while the non-yielding metal registers a higher high. Therefore, further downside looms.

Silver’s first support s $61.00. A breach of the latter will expose the December 10 daily low of $60.09, $60.00 ahead of challenging December’s 5 high turned support at $59.33.

Conversely, if XAG/USD rises past $62.00, expect another leg-up with the next resistance levels being the December 11 peak of $64.30 ahead of the record high of $64.65.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

 

Dec 13, 04:01 HKT
Gold remains bid as lack of Fed clarity and geopolitical frictions persist
  • XAU/USD retreats from a seven-week $4,353 peak as traders lock in profits after a strong weekly rally.
  • Fed officials warn inflation remains elevated, with scarce CPI data complicating policy signals amid shutdown distortions.
  • Stalled Russia–Ukraine peace talks and softer US labor data continue to underpin Gold’s medium-term

Gold (XAU/USD) advances modestly on Friday as traders seem to book profits ahead of the weekend, yet clings to gains of over 0.51% after reaching a seven-week high of $4,353. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,302 as traders digest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

Bullion trims gains ahead of the weekend, but remains supported by Fed uncertainty, weak data

The US economic docket was light, yet Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires. Two of the three dissenters expressed concerns about inflation remaining too high, specifically amid a period of scarce economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which would indicate the pace of price increases.

Last Thursday, a weaker-than-expected jobless claims report justified the central bank’s decision as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose. However, as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, most data could be “distorted” due to the US government closure.

In the meantime, Russia-Ukraine peace talks seem to have stalled. The White House press secretary expressed that US President Trump is frustrated with the pace of talks and disappointed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has not signed off on the peace plan made by the US.

Daily digest market movers: Gold advances as the Greenback remains pressured

  • Bullion mostly ignored Fed officials’ comments, which so far are setting the stage for interest rates next year. Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid dissented because inflation is “too hot” and feels that monetary policy should remain modestly restrictive. He added that “Right now, I see an economy that is showing momentum and inflation that is too hot, suggesting that policy is not overly restrictive.”
  • The other dissenter voting for a hold was Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who said that it was better to wait for more data, particularly about inflation and the job market. Despite this, he said that he was “not hawkish on rates for next year,” and projects 50 bps of easing if the economy evolves as he expects.
  • Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she remained worried about job market weakness. She added, “That's partly because I see a decent chance that inflation will come down as we go through next year with the waning of tariff impacts, which have been the main driver of price pressures overshooting the target this year.”
  • Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack remains focused on high inflation and said she would prefer monetary policy to be tighter. She sees the current policy rate as “right around a neutral” level, though she added that she would prefer a more restrictive stance to exert further pressure on inflation.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 6 rose to 236K, up sharply from the prior week’s upwardly revised 192K, according to the Department of Labor. In contrast, Continuing Claims for the week ending November 29 fell to 1.838 million from 1.937 million, suggesting some stabilization in longer-term unemployment.
  • US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year benchmark note rate up four basis points at 4.19%. US real yields, which correlate inversely with Gold prices, fall nearly two and a half basis points to 1.872%, a tailwind for Bullion.
  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenbacks’ performance against a basket of six peers, is flat at 98.35.

Technical Analysis: Gold’s uptrend intact as bulls take a breather

Gold is upward biased, even though it hovers above/beyond the $4,300 mark, with bulls remaining in charge as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is bullish and as it enters overbought territory, it hints that buying pressure is strong.

If XAU/USD climbs above the current day's high of $4,353, this opens the door to test the all-time high at $4,381. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $4,400, $4,450 and $4,500. Conversely, if Gold prices tumble below the December 11 high of $4,285, look for further downside to $4,250 ahead of $4,200.

Gold daily chart

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Dec 13, 03:01 HKT
Dow Jones Industrial Average retreats from record highs but poised for weekly gain
  • The Dow Jones fell back from record highs on Friday as tech stocks weaken.
  • Despite weakness, the Dow is bucking the trend and headed for a weekly gain.
  • Investors continue to quietly unwind their AI bets and rotate into growth stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) retreated from record intraday highs on Friday alongside its major index peers as investors continued rotating out of technology and into value-oriented sectors. The Dow briefly hit a new intraday record before pulling back 0.30%. Despite some deflation in the US tech space in the back half of the trading week, the Dow is on pace to finish the week on a high note, up 1.26% from Monday’s initial bids.

The S&P 500 (SP500) fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq also dropped 1.3%, weighed down by a sharp 10% decline in Broadcom (AVGO) following concerns about margin pressures despite strong earnings and an upbeat outlook for artificial intelligence chips.

AI techs continue to wither

The unwind of the artificial intelligence trade broadened, with AMD, Palantir Technologies (PLTR), and Micron (MU) also trading lower. In contrast, financials, health care, and industrials attracted buying interest. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and GE Aerospace (GE) were among the key gainers. Lululemon (LULU) surged 10% after announcing its chief executive officer will step down at the end of January.

Friday’s session extended the rotation theme that accelerated after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) third straight rate cut of the year on Wednesday. This shift drove value and cyclical stocks higher earlier in the week, lifting the Dow and S&P 500 to record closes while the Nasdaq lagged on weakness in Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and other high-growth names. Small-capitalization stocks continued to outperform, with the Russell 2000 up more than 1% for the week and setting fresh highs.

Policymakers push the envelope on rate consensus dissent

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said he opposed this week’s rate cut, arguing that policymakers should have waited for more data before moving again. He expressed confidence that rates could be lower in 2026 but voiced discomfort with “front-loading” easing while inflation progress remains uncertain. His dissent, alongside those of Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Governor Stephen Miran, added nuance to the policy backdrop as markets reassessed growth and valuation dynamics.

Dow Jones daily chart


Dow Jones FAQs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

Dec 13, 02:28 HKT
AUD/USD steadies as focus shifts to PMIs, US Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI
  • AUD/USD remains supported as the US Dollar stays under pressure, keeping the pair on track for a third straight weekly gain.
  • Monetary policy divergence widens, as the RBA holds steady while the Fed cuts rates again.
  • Focus shifts to next week’s data, with Australian and US PMIs, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales, and CPI in the spotlight.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds firm against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as traders look past this week’s Reserve Bank of Australia and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements and reassess the near-term interest-rate outlook.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6656, stabilising after a short-lived dip toward 0.6632.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate steady at 3.60%, marking a third consecutive pause while signalling a cautious, data-dependent stance amid lingering inflation risks. By contrast, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, lowering the Federal Funds Rate to the 3.50%-3.75% range, its third cut this year, reinforcing expectations that US monetary policy has entered a gradual easing phase.

Markets are now increasingly pricing in a prolonged pause from the RBA, with expectations building that the next policy move could be a rate hike in 2026 if inflation remains sticky. On the US side, traders continue to expect two rate cuts next year, despite limited forward guidance from the Fed.

This policy divergence continues to underpin the Aussie, keeping AUD/USD on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.

Earlier in the day, Comments from Fed officials showed continued caution around the policy outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid both dissented against this week’s rate cut. Goolsbee said he preferred to wait for greater clarity, particularly on inflation, before easing further, noting that recent data point to stable economic growth and only a moderate cooling in the labour market.

Schmid said that not much had changed since the previous meeting and added that monetary policy remains only modestly, if at all, restrictive, noting that the economy is showing momentum and that inflation remains too high.

With the key policy events now out of the way, market attention is shifting toward next week’s incoming economic data. Traders will closely watch the preliminary S&P Global PMIs from both Australia and the United States on Tuesday for fresh signals on economic momentum.

In the US, the spotlight will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports for October and November, alongside Retail Sales on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

Next release: Tue Dec 16, 2025 13:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: -

Previous: 119K

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Dec 13, 00:22 HKT
EUR/USD stable near 1.1740 as Fed officials suggest a pause in easing
  • Fed speakers stress inflation concerns, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance after Wednesday’s rate cut.
  • Market focus turns to delayed US data as policymakers defend their split December decision.
  • Eurozone inflation is mixed, yet technicals point toward further EUR/USD upside if 1.1762 breaks.

EUR/USD holds firm at around 1.1741 on Friday, virtually unchanged, amid a parade of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossing the wires, following last Wednesday's 25 basis points rate cut.

EUR/USD tilted to the upside despite hawkish Fed comments tempering dovish expectations

Despite cutting rates, the Fed hinted that it would pause its easing cycle, entering a wait-and-see period as it digests delayed economic data due to the US government shutdown.

In the meantime, Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack was hawkish, saying that “price pressures have been too high,” adding the Fed’s commitment to achieve inflation 2% goal. She added that the Fed decision was complicated and that policy is right around neutral.

At the same time, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee, one of the dissenters at the December meeting, justified his decision because he believed that they should wait for more information, particularly inflation. He commented that waiting until Q1 2026 for rate cuts would have allowed the Fed to be sure that inflation is falling

Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid said that he dissented against the rate cut because not much has changed in the economy since October, when he also dissented. Schmid added that he hears concerns about inflation from the people in the district.

Philadelphia Fed Anna Paulson said that she doesn’t see tariffs translating into widespread price increases, adding that she’s more concerned about job risks than inflation.

In Europe, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank (ECB) inflation measure, dipped 0.5% MoM in November, as expected, aligned with October's print. On an annual basis, it remained at 2.6%, as estimated by analysts.

In Spain, the HICP for the same period rose by 3.2% YoY, up from estimates and October’s 3.1% print.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Given the fundamental backdrop, the ERU/USD technical picture suggests that the pair is neutral to upward-biased, which could be cemented if the pair finishes the week above 1.1700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gathering momentum, so further upside lies ahead.

If EUR/USD clears the December 11 high of 1.1762, the next resistance would be 1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 area, ahead of the yearly peak of 1.1918. Conversely, if the pair tumbles below 1.1700, the first support would be the 100-day SMA at 1.1641 ahead of 1.1600.

EUR/USD daily chart

Euro Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.80% -0.22% 0.30% -0.29% -0.06% -0.37% -1.07%
EUR 0.80% 0.61% 1.17% 0.56% 0.80% 0.47% -0.23%
GBP 0.22% -0.61% 0.56% -0.06% 0.19% -0.15% -0.85%
JPY -0.30% -1.17% -0.56% -0.58% -0.35% -0.66% -1.35%
CAD 0.29% -0.56% 0.06% 0.58% 0.24% -0.08% -0.78%
AUD 0.06% -0.80% -0.19% 0.35% -0.24% -0.34% -1.03%
NZD 0.37% -0.47% 0.15% 0.66% 0.08% 0.34% -0.70%
CHF 1.07% 0.23% 0.85% 1.35% 0.78% 1.03% 0.70%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Dec 13, 00:13 HKT
GBP faces headwinds despite budget relief – Rabobank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under pressure heading into 2026 amid flat UK growth and the Bank of England’s ongoing easing cycle. Political uncertainties and ECB rate expectations support a gradual rise in EUR/GBP, projected to reach 0.89 over the next six months, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

UK growth flatlines as BoE easing persists

"Despite the relief that followed the UK’s November budget, the pound still faces headwinds into 2026. UK growth appears to be flatlining and the BoE is now in a minority of G10 central banks considered by the market to be still in the throes of its easing cycle."

"Another risk for the pound next year could come from UK politics. The tone of Reeves’ November budget appeared to be oriented towards appeasing the left of the Labour party. In turn this may be evidence of the vulnerability of her job and potentially that of PM Starmer."

"ECB rate hike expectations add to the scope for an upside bias in EUR/GBP in 2026. However, this may be tempered by Germany’s struggles with its reform process and its slow growth outlook. Overall, we expect an upward grind in EUR/GBP next year to 0.89 on a 6-month view."

Dec 12, 23:54 HKT
Copper hits record near $12,000 – Commerzbank

Copper prices surged to nearly $12,000 per ton following the Fed’s rate cut, up 36% year-to-date amid concerns that supply may lag rising demand. In response, Chilean mining companies plan record investments of $105 billion through 2034, including expansions at the Escondida and Collahuasi mines, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Expansion plans target Escondida and Collahuasi

"The Copper price continues to set new records: After the Fed cut interest rates, it climbed significantly yesterday and reached almost $12,000 per ton this morning. The price is now 36% higher than at the beginning of the year. The main driver is concern that supply will not be able to keep pace with rising demand."

"However, the massive increase in the Copper price is likely to have an impact on supply. According to analyses by the Chilean Copper Commission Cochilco, investment plans for Chilean mining have been massively increased: according to company plans, almost $105 billion will be invested over the next decade until 2034."

"That would be 26% more than was predicted last year for the period 2024-2033, and the highest investment amount since 2015. The new investments include an expansion of the Escondida mine, the world's largest Copper mine, as well as new concentrate plants at the Collahuasi Copper mine."

Dec 12, 23:50 HKT
Silver hits record high at $64.3 – Commerzbank

The price of Silver is currently skyrocketing. Yesterday, the price reached a new record high of $64.3 per ounce, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Prices surge 120% YTD, strongest gain since 1979

"Since the beginning of the week, the price has risen by almost 10%, and by 27% over the last three weeks. The increase since the beginning of the year now stands at 120%. This means that Silver is on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979. The Gold/Silver ratio fell below 67 yesterday, its lowest level since June 2021, putting it only slightly above the average for the past 50 years."

"The rise is being driven by a combination of tense market conditions, reflected in low inventories in China and a decline in Silver inventories on the Comex, even though these are still higher than at the beginning of the year. In addition, ETF purchases have recently picked up again, as reflected in the 1,145-ton increase in Silver ETF holdings within a month as recorded by Bloomberg."

"However, the price increase has become excessive, which calls for caution. In the longer term, the fundamental outlook for Silver remains positive. This week, the Silver Institute published a report on Silver demand for industrial applications, which forecasts a sharp rise in Silver demand for photovoltaics, electromobility, and data centers/artificial intelligence in the coming years."

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