Forex News

• XAG/USD rebounds above $54 after buyers defend $53.03 support.
• RSI recovers from oversold territory, signaling fading bearish momentum.
• Break below $53.00 exposes $50.00 and November support at $48.64.

Silver price drifts lower by some 0.42% after retesting last Friday’s low of $53.03, which was defended by buyers, sending XAG/USD price back above the $54.00 figure, but below its opening price.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The market structure of lower highs and lower lows continued to be respected. This indicates that Silver’s downtrend is intact. Although momentum has stabilized, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bottoming in oversold territory, further downside is seen unless XAG/USD rises back above October’s 20, daily high of $58.61 and breaks to new highs.

For a bullish reversal, XAG/USD buyers need to reclaim the October 22 high of $58.02. Above is the October 20 high ahead of the $60.00 mark. Once those key levels are cleared, the next stop is the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of $62.09 and $62.87, respectively.

On the downside, Silver’s first support is $53.00. Below is the psychological $50.00 mark, followed by the November 21, 2025, swing low of $48.64.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Standard Chartered’s Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan highlight China’s strengthening external position, raising the 2026 and 2027 current account surplus forecasts on larger goods surpluses and smaller services deficits. They argue this strong current account will support further capital account opening, gradual CNY appreciation and expanded authorised channels as China advances its Renminbi internationalisation strategy under managed convertibility.

Strong surplus supports gradual liberalisation

"We raise our 2026 current account (C/A) surplus forecast to 4.0% of GDP from 2.5% previously, due mainly to a larger-than-expected goods trade surplus and a smaller-than-expected services trade deficit in H1-2026."

"We expect the structural drivers of China’s external-sector strength to remain intact going forward; we therefore raise our 2027 C/A surplus forecast to 3.6% of GDP from 2.0% previously."

"China is likely to continue to gradually open up its capital account to increase the Renminbi’s usability and acceptance internationally."

"We expect the growing C/A surplus to be digested by gradual CNY appreciation and a relaxation of capital controls."

"Full convertibility does not seem to be the authorities’ goal for the CNY."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Gold gains 0.6% to $4,020 after rebounding from $3,978.
• Lower Oil prices and Treasury yields provide relief for Bullion.
• December Fed hike odds reach 83% ahead of Warsh's remarks.

Gold price recovers, rises 0.6% after finishing last week below the $4,000 figure as speculation of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed energy prices lower ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The XAU/USD trades at $4,020 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,978.

XAU/USD rebounds as easing Treasury yields and Middle East diplomacy support Bullion

Geopolitics continued to drive price action, particularly Oil prices, which have shown a mild positive correlation with the Greenback. Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – the Mecca Pact members – agreed to continue talks. Meanwhile, speculation of a US-Israel coordinated attack on Tehran looms as Iranian officials excluded nuclear talks from the Mecca Pact reunion.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, edges 0.5% lower to $102.90, which opened the door for Bullion’s recovery as US Treasury yields edge lower.

The US 10-year T-note yield, which correlates inversely with Gold prices, falls by 2 basis points to 4.978%, as investors price out a Fed rate hike this Wednesday.

At the time of writing, money markets had priced in an 83% chance that the Fedwill raise rates at the December meeting. Nevertheless, investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, in which he could signal the central bank’s next move, even though he doesn’t provide guidance.

Traders should be aware that although Gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn’t fare well in high-interest-rate environments. If Warsh’s words are hawkish, XAU/USD might press lower, and a potential move below $4,000 is on the cards.

Besides this, traders eye the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — for fresh clues about the interest-rate outlook. Additionally, investors are bracing for the November 3 US midterm elections.

XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold buyers emerge below $4,000; up next is $4,050

After diving to a two-month low of $3,975, Gold is making a U-turn and is about to form a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle pattern, meaning that further upside is seen. Although the move is backed by momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending higher, the 14-day RSI remains bearish and could cap the move.

The first resistance for XAU/USD is $4,100. A breach of the latter exposes the $4,150 psychological level ahead of the $4,200 mark. If cleared, the next stop is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,221, and the 50-day SMA at $4,294.

For a bearish continuation, the first support for XAU/USD is $4,000, followed by October’s 23-day low of $3,975, with the next key support levels seen at the July 17 low at $3,959 and the year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,941.

• NZD/USD falls 0.25% on Monday, despite expectations of further monetary tightening in New Zealand.
• Markets anticipate a third consecutive interest rate hike, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.0%.
• The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision and key US economic data.

NZD/USD declines by 0.25% on Monday, trading around 0.5680 at the time of writing, despite growing expectations of an interest rate hike in New Zealand. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles to benefit from the prospect of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as investors await several major monetary policy decisions and economic releases this week.

Expectations surrounding the RBNZ's upcoming policy decision have recently shifted toward another interest rate increase. According to TD Securities, the firm has shifted its near-term view on the RBNZ, noting that “we had forecast the RBNZ to pause at its October meeting. We now forecast the Bank to hike the Official Cash Rate 25bps at this week's meeting to 3%.” Despite the change in timing, strategists at the bank emphasize that “nonetheless, we stick to our call for 25bps hikes in December and February. Accordingly, this pushes our terminal rate from 3.25% to 3.50%.”

The latest data from New Zealand showed that inflation eased slightly more than expected in the third quarter. However, economists anticipate a renewed acceleration in consumer prices in the fourth quarter, potentially pushing inflation above 4%, beyond the RBNZ's target range of 1% to 3%.

This outlook could encourage the central bank to continue tightening monetary policy to contain price pressures, potentially providing support for the New Zealand Dollar.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 27-28 policy meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hold in October, while the likelihood of another interest rate hike in December stands at 79%.

This potential divergence between the monetary policies of the two central banks could support NZD/USD, particularly if the RBNZ confirms its intention to continue raising interest rates.

Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming US economic releases, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. These indicators could influence expectations regarding the future path of US interest rates and, consequently, the direction of the US Dollar.

NZD/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5687. The pair is sandwiched between its major moving averages, holding above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5665 but trading just beneath the 100-period SMA at 0.5689, which hints at a capped intraday tone within an overall supported structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.2 sits just below the neutral 50 line, suggesting consolidative momentum after the recent pullback from the 0.5700 area.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at 0.5689, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.5710. On the downside, initial support appears at the horizontal level at 0.5668, ahead of the 200-period SMA at 0.5665, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader intraday range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes Taiwan Dollar (TWD) weakness persists despite strong exports, as foreign equity outflows and unsettled global tech sentiment dominate USD/TWD. Wong stays cautious near term, highlighting the need for improved equity flows for a more durable TWD recovery and flagging technical overbought conditions with nearby support and resistance levels guiding price action.

TWD pressured by equity outflows

"TWD remained under pressure last week as foreign equity selling continued (Week-to-date USD7.6bn) amid unsettled global technology sentiment."

"The CBC attributed the currency’s weakness to substantial foreign fund outflows and dividendrelated remittances, while reiterating its willingness to maintain orderly FX conditions. This contrasted with strong September export orders, which surged 62.4% YoY, highlighting the disconnect between Taiwan’s resilient external sector and portfolio flows."

"We remain cautious on TWD near term. While CBC smoothing may help contain excessive volatility, sustained recovery would likely require foreign equity selling to moderate."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI turned lower from overbought conditions. We continue to keep a lookout for signs of technical turnaround."

"Support at 32.35 (23.6% fibo), 32.13 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 32.70 (recent high)"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that Brazil’s election outcome surprised markets, with Lula winning the run‑off and BRL dropping about 10% toward 5.50 per Dollar. He stresses Lula’s limited fiscal room given high debt and deficit, and argues the key for the Brazilian Real will be how quickly Lula can convince investors that his reform and consolidation pledges are credible.

Fiscal credibility key for Real

"Brazil’s election result caught markets on the wrong foot. While the first round had raised hopes of a change in power, Ignacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) ultimately prevailed in yesterday’s run-off and will return to the presidency."

"The real reacted sharply. Having strengthened after the first round, BRL dropped around 10% towards 5.50 against the dollar in thin Asian trading."

"As my colleague Norman pointed out last week, attention will now quickly shift to fiscal policy. With public debt at 83% of GDP and a budget deficit of around 10%, Lula has little room to disappoint."

"He has promised fiscal consolidation in recent weeks, partly in response to market pressure. Now he needs to deliver. That will not be easy, particularly as he faces a more conservative Congress following the parliamentary elections in early October."

"The initial sell-off may well have been exaggerated, but that does not mean it will reverse immediately. Markets had been positioned for a Bolsonaro victory and the associated reform agenda, and such positioning can unwind quickly. "

"For the real, the crucial question is therefore how quickly Lula can convince investors that his reform pledges are credible."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CAD rebounds from a six-week low, snapping a seven-day losing streak as the US Dollar recovers.
• Traders brace for Wednesday's Fed and BoC decisions, with the central banks expected to take different policy paths.
• Traders also await key US economic releases and Canada's GDP data later this week.

USD/CAD rebounds on Monday, snapping a seven-day losing streak as traders reposition ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4023 after falling to 1.3969 on Friday, its weakest level since September 16.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.87, recovering from last week’s low of 101.45.

The BoC and Fed announce their interest rate decisions on Wednesday and are expected to take different paths. Traders anticipate a 25-basis-point hike from the Canadian central bank, which would mark its first rate increase since July 2023. In contrast, the Fed is expected to pause after raising rates by 25 basis points in September.

The Canadian central bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, providing updated growth and inflation projections. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem recently said persistently high energy prices would lead to a significant upward revision to the bank’s inflation forecasts. With markets already anticipating a BoC hike and a Fed pause, traders will scrutinise policymakers’ remarks for clues about the timing and pace of further interest rate increases.

Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the Canadian Dollar is “likely to receive some support from monetary policy, at least in the short term,” as the Bank of Canada’s stance diverges from its major peers. They note that their economists “expect both the Fed and the ECB to tighten less than the market is currently pricing in.” By contrast, they highlight that, “given the BoC’s recent hawkish comments, the risk of higher inflation expectations and the prospect of higher BoC inflation forecasts, the BoC could raise rates more than once by the end of next year,” underscoring a comparatively more aggressive policy path that could underpin CAD.

Beyond the central bank decisions, traders also await key economic releases this week. On Tuesday, the US will release the ADP Employment Change four-week average, Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. On Thursday, attention will turn to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report, third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. In Canada, August GDP data is due on Friday.

TD Securities expects September PCE data to confirm elevated US inflation pressures. Core PCE is forecast at 0.32% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with market‑based core PCE at 0.34%. Headline PCE is seen at 0.49% m/m, driven by energy, while real spending turns slightly negative and income growth remains modest, underscoring a squeeze on consumers. They project US Real GDP at 2.5% q/q annualized in Q3, below consensus but still reflecting robust underlying activity.

PCE data to confirm inflation risks

"September PCE prices are likely to reflect the strong CPI print."

"We expect core PCE picked up to 0.32% m/m (3.1% y/y) with strong goods and services."

"Headline was also likely faster at 0.49% (3.6% y/y) due to energy."

"Underlying inflation should accelerate, with market-based core PCE likely rising 0.34%."

"PCE prices to reflect elevated inflation risks while we expect real spending and income to turn negative."

"Consumption likely remained resilient while decelerating slightly with fixed investment also strong in large part due to AI."

"We expect GDP growth picked up in Q3 to 2.5% from 2.2% previously with underlying activity remaining robust."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• GBP/USD falls to 1.3342 as US Dollar demand strengthens.
• October Fed hike odds remain at 9%, while December reaches 83%.
• November BoE hike fully priced as UK Autumn Budget approaches.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) loses some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, drifting lower about 0.22% as traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision this week and brace for the release of the UK’s Autumn Budget. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3342.

Pound retreats as Dollar strength, UK fiscal uncertainty overshadow BoE hike speculation

Geopolitics continue to drive price action, along with AI hype as Anthropic filed for its IPO, driving the Nasdaq higher. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.24% to 101.99, a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, the US economic schedule was light, with price action being driven by the Middle East conflict and tech stocks. Speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at the two-day meeting ending this Wednesday dissipated, with odds at 9%, while chances of a December hike fell from around 90% last week to 83% as of writing, according to Prime Terminal.

Meanwhile, energy prices are edging lower as senior regional diplomats flew to Iran to try to de-escalate rising tensions. Rumors of a possible US-Israel attack on Tehran waned as US President Donald Trump stated that he would not attack Iran, he said on Sunday.

Last week, the US Dollar came under selling pressure during a tech-led market selloff. Corporate earnings reports from large cloud computing providers Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon will also test the fragile AI-led market rally and broader risk appetite.

In the UK, eyes are on Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey, who is poised to reveal his budget, with the priority of stabilizing the UK bond market amid fears of big spending moves that the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham talked about when he became prime minister.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates on November 5 hinge on the release of solid economic data, underscoring the economy's resilience.

Money markets have priced in a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, meaning the interest rate differential between the US and the UK would narrow to zero, an indication that GBP/USD might recover in the coming weeks if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fails to strike a hawkish tone.

Ahead, the US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders, housing and jobs data, along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3344. The pair retains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 1.3400, while also trading under key upward trend-line breaks at 1.3640 and 1.3820. Momentum has improved, with the Relative Strength Index (14) rising toward a neutral 52 area, but this only hints at moderating downside pressure rather than a clear shift in trend while price remains capped by these overhead structures.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the downward-sloping trend-line break near 1.3397, ahead of the dense SMA ceiling around 1.3400; a daily close above this cluster would be needed to ease the bearish bias and open the way toward 1.3640 and 1.3820. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the prior resistance trend line now turned floor around 1.3260, and a sustained move below this level would likely reassert selling pressure and expose lower levels in the broader range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• The Australian Dollar loses 0.24% on Monday but holds above 0.7000 after reaching a one-month high.
• Growing expectations of another interest rate hike in Australia could limit Aussie's downside.
• Investors await Australian inflation figures and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

AUD/USD edges lower on Monday, trading around 0.7015 at the time of writing, down 0.24%. The pair retreats after reaching a monthly high earlier in the day, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of several major economic events this week.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could draw support from growing expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its upcoming November monetary policy meeting.

These expectations have strengthened following recent hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, who warned that inflation has not yet been fully brought under control. She indicated that further interest rate increases could be necessary, particularly amid the risk of international inflationary pressures becoming entrenched in the Australian economy.

Against this backdrop, investors are closely watching Wednesday's release of Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening by the RBA, providing additional support for the Australian Dollar. Conversely, a sharper slowdown in price pressures could weaken rate hike expectations and weigh on the currency.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend Friday's modest recovery after hitting a three-week low. Declining US Treasury bond yields and hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East are limiting demand for the Greenback. However, geopolitical uncertainties remain and could trigger renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Market attention is also turning to Wednesday's monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors will closely examine the central bank's guidance regarding the future path of interest rates.

The US economic calendar remains busy, with Thursday bringing the advance estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge closely monitored by the Fed.

These releases could reshape expectations for the future path of US interest rates and trigger renewed volatility in AUD/USD, as the diverging monetary policy outlooks in Australia and the US remain in focus.

RBA hike risks build as TD flags hawkish shift and November move

According to TD Securities, markets had been “under-priced for the risk of a follow-up hike” even as the bank’s earlier commentary, following the Minutes of the RBA’s September meeting, maintained a call for no further increases this year. On returning to the office, TD’s team “listened to the Deputy Governor's fireside chat from last week and there is no confusion here - his comments were hawkish,” marking a clear shift in tone.

TD stresses that “the Deputy Governor's hawkish comments last week preceded this week's Q3 CPI,” and that “the timing of this hawkish commentary runs counter to his hawkish commentary in March of this year and earlier last month that were delivered after strong data outcomes.” This sequencing, they argue, materially changes the policy risk profile around the upcoming meeting.

On the data front, TD Securities “forecast Q3 quarterly trimmed mean to print 0.92% q/q, above the Bank's 0.85% forecast.” They note that, “theoretically, this should be enough for the Bank to remain on hold at its November meeting given the Bank's decision to hike at its September meeting.”

AUD/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7018 and remains mildly capped in the near term, with price holding below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.7020 and the horizontal barrier at 0.7040. The pair still trades above the longer-term 200-period SMA at 0.6990, but the Relative Strength Index (14) near 41 suggests fading bullish momentum and a corrective tone while the broader uptrend structure stays intact.

On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.7013, ahead of the horizontal floor at 0.6994 and the 200-period SMA at 0.6990, which together define a key demand zone for buyers to defend. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 100-period SMA at 0.7020, with a stronger cap at 0.7040; a sustained break above these levels would ease current selling pressure and reopen the path toward higher hourly highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)