Forex News
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that the Dollar has softened after comments from Fed Chair Warsh reduced expectations of another rate hike, but still-high global yields keep the backdrop challenging for Asia FX. Indonesia’s rupiah has weakened above IDR18,000/USD, with elevated Oil prices, weaker external balances and MSCI downgrade risks all weighing on IDR. MUFG maintains forecasts for further USD/IDR upside into 2027.
MSCI consultation compounds rupiah pressures
"We remain cautious on Asia FX as elevated global yields and oil prices continue to weigh on the more externally vulnerable currencies. Indonesia remains one of our key concerns. The rupiah has weakened above IDR18,000/USD, while our existing framework points to a combination of higher US yields, weaker external balances from elevated oil prices and a tougher trade-off for Bank Indonesia."
"MSCI concerns add another layer of pressure on the rupiah. MSCI has launched a consultation to potentially reclassify Indonesia directly from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status, citing a continued lack of transparency. Importantly, MSCI noted that a move to Frontier Market status would not be enough to reflect the depth of the concerns. A final decision by MSCI on Indonesian equities market classification is due by 30 June 2027."
"The MSCI consultation risks keeping foreign participation subdued for longer. MSCI will maintain its existing freeze on selected index changes. This matters for IDR because persistent weakness in foreign equity participation removes one potential source of portfolio inflows at a time when Indonesia is already facing pressure from higher oil prices and a weaker external balance."
"We maintain a cautious bias for IDR. A potential Fed pause in October may temporarily ease the external pressure, but we do not think it is sufficient to reverse the rupiah trend while Indonesia-specific risks are increasing. The oil shock is already eroding the trade balance, while the MSCI consultation now adds another potential drag through the portfolio-flow channel. We therefore maintain our bias for further USD/IDR upside, with our existing forecasts at 18,350 in Q4 2026 and 18,500 in Q1 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/JPY surges above falling wedge resistance, strengthening the bullish outlook.
- Buyers target 111.13 before challenging SMA confluence at 111.64-111.71.
- Break above 112.00 exposes 100-day SMA at 112.19 next.
The AUD/JPY advances late on Monday during the North American session, up 0.88%, as the cross-pair continues to trade above the resistance trendline of a ‘falling wedge,’ a bullish chart pattern that could open the door to testing higher prices. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 110.64 after bouncing off the low of the day (LOD) of 109.86.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action suggests that further upside is seen, with initial resistance resting at 111.13, the October 14 high of the day (HOD), which could act as a magnet and lift the AUD/JPY as the confluence of the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) emerges as the next key resistance near 111.64-111.71. Once this area is surpassed, it will expose 112.00 and the 100-day SMA at 112.19.
On the downside, the first support for AUD/JPY is the 110.00 psychological level. A move below this milestone and towards a previous resistance trendline-turned-support at the 109.00-109.30 range are on the cards. Beneath is 109.00, followed by the October 15 low of 108.64.
AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Commerzbank economists note Singapore’s September NODX surged to its fastest pace since 1980, driven by broad-based gains in electronics and lumpy ship-related exports, yet they expect growth to moderate as base effects toughen and AI investment matures. USD/SGD has drifted lower but remains confined to a tight range since late September, reflecting resilient fundamentals and cautious MAS guidance.
Exports strong but growth to moderate
"September non-oil domestic exports (NODX) exceeded expectations and surged 68.4% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 32.2%) vs 46.1% in August, the strongest growth since February 1980. The increase was broad-based across electronic and non-electronic exports, although the latter was boosted by volatile components."
"Enterprise Singapore highlighted that the non-electronic sector’s outperformance was “primarily due to the lumpy exports of structures of ships and boats”. NODX rose around 27.5% in the first nine months of the year, well above the government’s full-year forecast of 14-16%."
"Looking ahead, NODX should remain resilient in the near term, supported by the electronics sector. However, increasingly challenging base effects, a maturing AI investment cycle and capacity constraints could moderate growth ahead."
"Continued weakness in chemicals represents an additional headwind, while the boost from lumpy exports of ships and boats is unlikely to be sustained. As a result, we should expect a moderation in the coming months."
"In FX, USD/SGD fell 0.2% to 1.2790 last Friday and dipped 0.1% last week. The pair has remained in the 1.2740-1.2870 range since late September."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold falls 0.54% to $4,141 as US Dollar strength pressures bullion.
- WTI rises above $99, lifting 10-year Treasury yields to 5.144%.
- October Fed hike odds stand at 16%, while December reaches 92%.
Gold (XAU/USD) falls about 0.54% on Monday as the Greenback drifts higher and market mood shifts to neutral amid tensions in the Middle East, sparking a risein Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) bouncing off daily lows beneath $97 to $99.30. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,140.
XAU/USD retreats as rising energy prices and Treasury yields overshadow fading October Fed hike bets
The yellow metal began the week on a lower note as the US Dollar drifts higher even though last week’s US hot-inflation data, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), triggered a leg down on the Greenback as money markets priced out a rate hike in October.
Geopolitics continued to play its role as Iran’s navy reported attacks from the US military at the Konarak naval base, reporting that two soldiers were injured, according to Al Jazeera.
That pushed WTI prices higher and US Treasury yields higher. The US 10-year T-note yield is up six basis points at 5.144%.
This week, the US economic docket will be absent of speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials during October’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period. But economic data will be released, like the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims and S&P Global Flash PMIs.
Worth noting that the White House National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said that inflation looks like “it is needing some work” at CNBC.
Even though Gold is used as a hedge against high inflation, rising US yields undermine the yellow metal due to its non-yielding nature.
Money markets trimmed the odds of an October Fed rate hike to 16% following September's 25-basis-point increase. For the December meeting, the odds are nearly 92%, according to Prime Terminal data.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold trapped within $4,100-$4,200
Gold continues to trade laterally within the $4,100-$4,200 range, and although it appears to have bottomed near the range’s lower end, nothing is certain amid growing speculation that the Fed could increase rates in December.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, though it has shifted to a flattish level, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge.
For a bullish reversal, XAU/USD’s first resistance is at $4,200, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,238. Above that is the 50-day SMA at $4,326, followed by the $4,500 mark.
If XAU/USD continues lower, initial support is at $4,100. If sellers push Gold below that level, it would put the October 14 low of $4,073 in play, followed by the July 29 cycle low at $3,996, ahead of the July 17 low at $3,959. The yearly low at $3,941 lies below these levels.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports that USD/CNH has broken to fresh multi‑year lows near 6.6800 after stronger‑than‑expected China Q3 GDP, which keeps growth on track for the government’s 4.5%–5.0% 2026 target. BBH stresses that structural weaknesses in consumption and investment persist, but still sees the USD/CNH downtrend intact, supported by CNH internationalization and internal rebalancing.
Growth surprise but structural issues linger
"USD/CNH broke to fresh multi-year lows near 6.6800. China’s economy grew more than expected in Q3 and is tracking the government’s 4.5% to 5.0% growth target for 2026. Real GDP was up 1.2% q/q (consensus: 1.0%) vs. 0.9% in Q2 and in the three quarters to the year printed at 4.6% y/y."
"China’s growth target is used as a policy tool to guide economic/social planning rather than a reflection of underlying supply and demand dynamic. That means the quality and sources of China’s growth is more relevant for investors."
"From that perspective, China’s long-term economic health remains weak because consumer spending is struggling to gain traction and non-residential fixed asset investment is an ongoing drag. In the first three quarters of the year, retail sales growth was unchanged at 1.1% y/y vs. 1.1% in August, and fixed asset investment growth excluding real estate development fell -4.2% y/y vs. -4.2% in August."
"Regardless, USD/CNH downtrend is intact in our view reflecting both CNH internationalization potential and China’s internal rebalancing story."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/JPY rallies for the third consecutive day after breaking the descending trendline.
- Buyers target 211.28 and the 50-day SMA at 211.57 next.
- A break above 212.00 exposes the 200-day SMA at 213.00 and 213.50.
GBP/JPY advances about 0.16% at the time of writing on Monday and extends its rally for the third straight day, with the cross pair trading at 210.93 as it approaches the September 18 high of 211.28, the next key resistance ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Although the cross-pair seems to be gaining traction, a break of key resistance levels is needed for GBP/JPY buyers to retest mid-July or August levels in the 217.40-219.50 area before US and Japanese authorities intervene in the FX markets.
After clearing a downslope resistance trendline drawn from the September 18 high, GBP/JPY rallied 140 pips, exposing the 211.00 figure as the next area of interest. If buyers reclaim it, a move to the 50-day SMA at 211.57 is on the cards. This could put into play a test of the 212.00 mark, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 213.00, followed by the 100-day SMA at 213.50.
A bearish scenario resumes if GBP/JPY tumbles back below a downward resistance trendline, near 209.30. Beneath this area emerges the October 8 swing low of 208.20, followed by the September 30 cycle low of 206.89.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.19% | 0.33% | -0.21% | -0.48% | -0.16% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.06% | 0.11% | -0.45% | -0.72% | -0.42% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | 0.06% | 0.15% | -0.39% | -0.68% | -0.35% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.52% | -0.89% | -0.48% | 0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | 0.45% | 0.39% | 0.52% | -0.26% | 0.04% | 0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.48% | 0.72% | 0.68% | 0.89% | 0.26% | 0.32% | 0.83% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.42% | 0.35% | 0.48% | -0.04% | -0.32% | 0.49% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.54% | -0.83% | -0.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC remains cautiously negative on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) after MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia from emerging market to standalone status, triggering sharp equity outflows and USD/IDR gains. The bank expects Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intervention to cap volatility but sees a sustained recovery needing clearer reforms and better external conditions, with 18,190 flagged as key resistance and Fibonacci supports below.
Reclassification risk weighs on sentiment
"IDR came under renewed pressure on Friday after MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia from emerging market to standalone status, triggering a sharp selloff in local equities."
"USD/IDR briefly rose above 18,070 before paring gains, with BI stepping up its presence across FX and bond markets to contain volatility. The development adds to existing concerns over portfolio outflows, elevated oil prices and the domestic fiscal outlook."
"We retain a mildly cautious bias on IDR in the near term. While the MSCI proposal is not yet final, the uncertainty may weigh on investor confidence in the interim."
"Pair last closed at 18012. Daily MACD remains in positive territory though the impulse does not look especially strong while RSI is near overbought territory. Near term, 18190 remains the key resistance (2026 high). Initial support comes in around 17838 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), followed by 17620 (38.2% fib)."
"BI intervention may help contain near-term volatility, but a more sustained recovery would require greater clarity on market reforms and some improvement in external conditions. Focus this week also turns to BI’s policy decision on Wednesday."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD edges higher toward $57.21, but the broader downtrend remains intact.
- Bearish RSI hovers near oversold territory, signaling persistent selling pressure.
- Break below $57.00 exposes $56.50, $56.00 and $55.38 next.
Silver (XAG/USD) drifts higher during Monday’s North American session, up 0.38% to $57.21, yet it remains near last week's low of $55.38, suggesting the white metal could be poised for a near-term bearish continuation.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Price action shows the downtrend remains intact, as market structure continues to respect successive lower highs and lower lows, while the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remain above the current spot price.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and, despite being flat, is closer to oversold territory, indicating that further downside is expected.
The XAG/USD first support is $57.00. A breach of the latter exposes the psychological key support levels at $56.50, $56.00 and the October 15 low of $55.38. Beneath are $55.00 and the $50.00 mark.
For a bullish reversal, the first resistance is the October 16 high of $57.98. Above lies the $60.00 figure, ahead of challenging the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.06. Once hurdled, the next stops are the 50-day SMA at $63.80, then $65.00, and the $70.00 mark.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD slipped on Friday but downside momentum remains only tentative. In the very near term, the pair is expected to stay confined between nearby support at 1.2780 and resistance at 1.2815. Over the coming 1–3 weeks, UOB sees scope for modest further Dollar weakness, though a clear break below 1.2765 is viewed as unlikely.
Downward momentum remains only tentative
"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, we expected USD to “trade sideways between 1.2810 and 1.2840.” Instead of trading sideways, USD dipped to 1.2784 before recovering to close 0.14% lower at 1.2804. Downward momentum is increasing, albeit tentatively. Today, USD could edge lower, but it should stay within a 1.2780/1.2815 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After USD soared to a high of 1.2871 last Wednesday, we highlighted on Thursday (15 Oct, spot at 1.2845) that USD “must break and hold above 1.2870 before a move to 1.2900 can be expected.” On Friday, USD fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2795. Upward momentum has faded with the breach of the ‘strong support’, and there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum. From here, USD may edge lower, but based on the prevailing momentum, any decline is unlikely to break the support at 1.2765. On the upside, a breach of 1.2830 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is more likely to range-trade rather than edging lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN falls 0.44% to 18.41 as Peso buyers return.
- Mexico's 250-basis-point rate advantage faces pressure from future Fed hikes.
- US-Mexico trade uncertainty and upcoming Mexican inflation data remain key risks.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday amid speculation that the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US will remain unchanged, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) projected to hold rates steady at the October meeting. At the time of writing, USD/MNX trades at 18.41, down 0.44%.
USD/MXN retreats toward 18.40 as October Fed hold expectations support the Peso
USD/MXN has recovered since early September as the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4%, while the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has finished its tightening cycle and is expected to hold rates at 6.50% in 2026 and 2027. This lifted the pair from around 16.95 toward the yearly high of 18.60 before settling at current exchange rates.
Even though the differential is 250 basis points, growing speculation that the Fed will hike in December and at least twice next year has reduced the Peso’s 'carry trade' appeal, which has been supporting the emerging market currency.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Monday that during calls with US President Donald Trump, he insisted on pressuring Mexico to buy natural gas and to open Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned Oil company, to investment by US companies.
Meanwhile, progress on a US-Mexico tariff and trade deal has halted, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported last week.
Ahead, Mexico’s docket will feature Retail Sales and October’s Mid-Month Inflation report.
In the US, there will be no speeches by Fed officials on the economic docket during October’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period. However, economic data will still be released, including the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims, and S&P Global Flash PMIs.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.4378, extending its advance well above the clustered 50/100/200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) area around 17.4494 and the previously capping downward trend line, now turned support near 18.12. This positioning keeps the near-term bias decisively bullish, with price holding comfortably over all visible structural floors while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.29 stays in bullish territory, hinting at strong but gradually stretched upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the former trend-line barrier near 18.12, which now acts as the first defensive level on pullbacks. Below that zone, the SMA cluster at roughly 17.45 is the next important base before the more distant horizontal support at 16.89, which together define the broader area that would need to give way to challenge the current bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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