Forex News
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that EU ETS reform, including new benchmark calculations, could significantly raise costs for European Aluminium recyclers and refineries. With fallback benchmarks set to drop sharply, companies may need to buy more allowances, pressuring profitability in a globally priced market. Industry group European Aluminium warns this could undermine Aluminium recycling competitiveness in Europe.
EU ETS threatens recyclers’ margins
"The upcoming reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS I) is intended to ease the burden on companies and give them more time to decarbonize. To this end, in addition to the reform of the market stability reserve and plans for a decarbonization fund, a new method for calculating benchmark values - which is crucial for the free allocation of allowances - has recently been presented."
"These are set to decrease by 34% for the 2026–2030 period compared to the 2021–2025 values, which would require recyclers and refineries to purchase significantly more allowances."
"According to the association, this would have a massive impact on profitability, as the higher costs cannot simply be passed on and aluminium prices are set globally. Thus, the reform of the EU ETS threatens to undermine aluminium recycling in Europe."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver holds breakout above descending trendline, confirming neutral-upward shift.
- RSI nears overbought territory, signaling buyers retain strong momentum.
- Break above $87 opens path toward $90 and $96.62.
Silver price steadies following Monday’s advance of over 7%; gains 0.69% and trades at $86.58 after bouncing off daily lows of $83.05 at the time of writing.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shifted from neutral to neutral-upwards after clearing a key resistance trendline drawn from around March’s 2 highs, which passes at around $77.00.
Momentum shifted bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which spiked higher, nearly overbought territory, an indication that buyers are gaining momentum.
Should XAG/USD clear the $87.00 mark, this opens the door to challenge the $90.00 milestone. A breach of the latter will expose the March 2 high of $96.62, ahead of the $100.00 figure.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the Silver price towards the April 17 daily high, which has since turned into support at $83.06. Once hurdled, the next support would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $80.92, followed by the 50-day SMA at $76.99, ahead of the $70.00 figure.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
DBS' Senior Economist Ma Tieying revises her Taiwan policy rate outlook after upgrading 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. She now expects a 12.5bps hike in 3Q, taking the policy discount rate from 2.00% to 2.125%. Tieying notes the central bank is likely on hold in June but sees rising pipeline inflation and second-round risks in 2H.
DBS flags 3Q rate hike risk
"Following our earlier upward revision of 2026 GDP and CPI forecasts (to 9.4% and 1.9%, respectively), we also revise our interest rate forecast, adding one 12.5bps rate hike in 3Q, which would lift the policy discount rate from 2.00% to 2.125%. Recent data suggest that the central bank is likely to remain on hold at the June policy meeting."
"These leading indicators suggest that headline CPI could rise above 2% from May onward and reach around 2.5% by mid-year."
"Some pass-through into core inflation is also likely, potentially pushing core CPI toward 2.5% in 2H."
"Looking ahead, however, tightening pressure is likely to build in 2H as pipeline inflation pressures continue to rise."
"Taiwan’s central bank remains vigilant against second-round inflation effects stemming from higher energy costs."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, May 13:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied toward the 98.30 region on Tuesday as hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data boosted Treasury yields and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, above market expectations near 3.7%, while monthly CPI rose 0.6%. Meanwhile, Core CPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, signaling persistent underlying inflation pressure and reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts later in the year.
The 10-year US Treasury saw its yield climb by 1.10% to 4.46%, while the 30-year rose 0.80% to 5.03%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.34% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.18% | 0.34% | |
| EUR | -0.34% | 0.18% | -0.11% | -0.22% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.53% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.41% | -0.36% | -0.34% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | 0.11% | 0.32% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.22% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.08% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.18% | 0.18% | 0.34% | 0.05% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.34% | 0.00% | 0.19% | -0.09% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD dropped toward the 1.1740 region as the stronger USD dominated the market following the inflation release. Investors also remained cautious ahead of additional comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials and continued monitoring the impact of elevated energy prices on the Eurozone economy.
GBP/USD fell near the 1.3540 area, pressured by broad USD strength and weaker risk appetite. Rising fiscal uncertainty after recent reports showed weakening consumer spending and softer business confidence. Concerns that elevated energy prices could further weigh on household demand and economic growth also continued to limit support for the Pound Sterling.
USD/JPY climbed toward the 157.60 zone as rising US Treasury yields and stronger USD demand supported the pair. However, concerns about possible intervention from Japanese authorities continued to prevent a more aggressive upside move.
AUD/USD declined toward the 0.7240 region as the hotter US inflation data boosted the Greenback and weighed on risk-sensitive currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil traded above the $102.00 per barrel region as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz maintained fears of potential supply disruptions.
Gold (XAU/USD) slipped toward the $4,700 area as the stronger USD and rising Treasury yields pressured the precious metal, although geopolitical uncertainty continued offering some safe-haven support.
What’s next in the docket:
Wednesday, May 13:
- AU Q1 Wage Price Index QoQ
- NZ Q2 RBNZ Inflation Expectations QoQ
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY
- EU Q1 Employment Change QoQ Prel
- EU Q1 GDP s.a. QoQ Prel; EU Q1 GDP s.a. YoY Prel
- EU March Industrial Production s.a. MoM
- US April PPIs; US April Core PPIs
Thursday, May 14:
- AU May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- UK March GDP MoM; UK Q1 GDP QoQ Prel; UK Q1 GDP YoY Prel
- UK March Industrial Production MoM; UK March Manufacturing Production MoM
- DE April HICP YoY
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US April Retail Sales MoM; US April Retail Sales Control Group; US April Retail Sales ex Autos MoM
- NZ April Business NZ PMI
Friday, May 15:
- FR April CPI EU norm YoY; FR April CPI YoY
- US May NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- US April Industrial Production MoM
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
TD Securities economists judge that April Consumer Price Index (CPI) strength was driven by shelter and energy, but see core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index running softer than CPI. They argue tariff pass-through is fading and supercore PCE should ease. With labor-market conditions improving, they expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to shift from a dovish bias toward a more neutral policy posture while remaining on hold.
From dovish bias to neutral stance
"While there are signs suggesting tariff pass-through is fizzling out, services ex-housing inflation remained firm in the CPI which could give pause to a number of Fed officials."
"That said, we still see the equivalent supercore PCE number coming in much weaker ahead of PPI data tomorrow."
"For now, the path of least resistance for the Fed, amid improving labor-market conditions, is to shift from a dovish bias to a more neutral policy posture."
"Fed pricing moved modestly higher in the wake of the report, but this print alone is"
"unlikely to change the Fed's stance on remaining on hold as the labor market stabilizes and the full extent of the impact of energy prices is still unclear."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dark-cloud cover pattern signals rising downside pressure below 1.3500.
- RSI turns lower, confirming sellers are gaining momentum.
- Break below 1.3500 exposes 1.3482 and 1.3425 support levels.
GBP/USD retreats by over 0.55% on Tuesday amid political turmoil in the UK, as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step aside following cabinet resignations. Technically, the formation of a ‘dark-cloud cover’ suggests further downside if sellers drive the pair below 1.3500.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
After consolidating around 1.3600, political pressure pushed GBP/USD lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gaining momentum, as it points downwards, indicating a potential bearish turn.
For a bearish continuation, sellers must keep GBP/USD below 1.3500. In that outcome, the next support would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3482, followed by the confluence of the 50- and 200-day SMA near 1.3427/25. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the 1.3400 mark.
On the flip side, bulls must climb above 1.3550 to challenge the 1.3600 milestone. Above this level, the next area of interest would be the May 8 daily high at 1.3637, followed by key resistance levels 1.3650 and 1.3700.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.55% | 0.22% | 0.16% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | 0.19% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.55% | -0.19% | -0.30% | -0.41% | -0.38% | -0.36% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.22% | 0.11% | 0.30% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.05% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.21% | 0.41% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | 0.19% | 0.38% | 0.08% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | 0.00% | 0.19% | -0.10% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that USD/MYR has broken lower and remains constructive on the Ringgit, expecting fundamentals to support Ringgit appreciation over the next 12 months. Chan highlights Malaysia’s status as an Oil producer and net gas exporter, contained MYR volatility, and macro fundamentals including stable growth, anchored trade surplus, and steady foreign bond holdings.
Ringgit supported by solid fundamentals
"USD/MYR has recently broken lower and we stay constructive on the ringgit despite Middle East risks."
"Near-term volatility is expected, but fundamentals should support ringgit appreciation over next 12 months."
"Macro fundamentals and flows support MYR. We expect growth to remain at potential output of 4.8% in 2026, inflation relatively contained, BNM to stay on hold at 2.75%, and trade surplus anchored by electronics exports and steady terms of trade. Foreign bond holdings are stable, with central banks/governments now the largest foreign holder of local government bonds."
"MYR volatility has been contained. The initial rise in ringgit volatility was modest versus PHP and THB, and has since fallen below pre-conflict levels, underscoring lower relative vulnerability."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Hot US CPI pushes investors to price out Fed cuts.
- Oil surge and stronger US Dollar pressure bullion below $4,700.
- Warsh's confirmation adds uncertainty before Powell’s final Fed day.
Gold (XAU/USD) price falls more than 1% on Tuesday as US inflation came in hotter than expected, prompting investors to price out Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2026. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,678 after reaching a daily high of $4,773.
XAU/USD slides as hot CPI lifts Dollar, yields and Fed hike bets
The US and Iran reached an impasse regarding the end of the conflict. Tehran’s response angered US President Donald Trump, who said on Monday that Iran’s response was “totally unacceptable,” while calling for a meeting of his national security council to evaluate his options. Axios reported that US officials said there were different scenarios, including the possibility of resuming military activities.
Oil prices jumped on the headlines, and as of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up over 3.20% to $101.50, a headwind for the yellow metal. The Greenback, which is positively correlated with WTI, advances by 0.48% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar performance against a basket of six currencies, is trading near five-day highs at around 98.37.
US inflation to prevent Fed rate cuts
The rise in energy prices underpinned April’s US inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% YoY, up from 3.3% previously, exceeding estimates of 3.7%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased 2.8% YoY, also above the 2.7% estimate.
Consequently, US Treasury yields edged higher, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising 4.5 basis points to 4.457%. Meanwhile, investors priced in a nearly 30% chance for a rate hike towards the end of 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
In other news, the US Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee to become the new chief of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, to the Fed board. The vote for his confirmation as Fed Chair will be onWednesday, two days before Jerome Powell’s last day as Chairman of the Board.
What’s next for Wednesday?
The US economic schedule will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, and a speech by the Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold reverses course, tumbles below $4,700
Gold looks set to keep consolidating between major support and resistance, with momentum turning moderately bearish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which recently cleared the 50-neutral level downwards. In addition, XAU/USD has fallen below $4,700, opening the door to a challenge of key support levels.
First, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) lies at $4,687, ahead of testing the $4,600 mark. From here, the next area of interest is the May 4 swing low around $4,500, which is the next key level.
Above, the first key resistance is the $4,700 milestone. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at $4,757. If that level gives way, bulls may target the 100-day SMA near $4,776, followed by the $4,800 round number.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank (ECB), told Handelsblatt on Tuesday that ECB rate hikes are becoming increasingly likely with the high inflation that is ahead of them.
Key takeaways:
We still have quite a bit of inflation ahead of us.
No longer in baseline scenario, moving to adverse one.
ECB rate hikes are becoming increasingly likely."
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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