Forex News
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 3:
The US Dollar (USD) is under pressure despite upbeat macroeconomic data: the October ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts, yet market participants set it aside. Geopolitics is playing a crucial role, with news of a possible breakthrough in negotiations between the US and Iran, while traders brace for the outcome of the US mid-term elections, Factory Orders, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 101.72, down 0.24%.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.33% | -0.16% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.49% | 0.19% | -0.88% | |
| EUR | 0.33% | 0.18% | 0.53% | 0.42% | 0.82% | 0.52% | -0.52% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.18% | 0.38% | 0.25% | 0.63% | 0.33% | -0.70% | |
| JPY | -0.21% | -0.53% | -0.38% | -0.09% | 0.29% | -0.00% | -1.07% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.42% | -0.25% | 0.09% | 0.40% | 0.09% | -0.95% | |
| AUD | -0.49% | -0.82% | -0.63% | -0.29% | -0.40% | -0.29% | -1.34% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.52% | -0.33% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.29% | -1.03% | |
| CHF | 0.88% | 0.52% | 0.70% | 1.07% | 0.95% | 1.34% | 1.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is poised to finish Monday’s session with gains of 0.33% below 1.1200, even though HCOB PMIs were solid in Spain and Germany, but not so in Italy, contracting from 50.4 to 49.4, below forecasts. On Tuesday, investors are focused on speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) officials Joachim Nagel and Olaf Sleijpen.
The British Pound hovers around 1.3400, with GBP/USD reaching a high of 1.3448, but buyers failed to sustain the uptrend. The docket is empty, but traders can continue to price in a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike on Thursday, with odds near 100%, according to LSEG data.
USD/JPY trades sideways, following last Friday’s dovish surprise by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Although the message was moderately hawkish, money markets expect higher interest rates in the December meeting.
AUD/USD dropped to 0.7000 with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision up next at 03:30 GMT. Investors expect a 25 bps rate hike, with odds at 85%, and, along with the monetary policy decision and the release of the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the RBA’s Governor Bullock press conference is awaited.
USD/CHF was the outperformer in the FX space, with no clear catalyst, but the pair moving from around 0.8250 to 0.8182 was noticed by investors. The release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland could set the pace for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is expected to maintain its currency policy stance at one of the lowest interest rates.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude collapsed amid rumors of a possible resolution between Washington and Tehran. WTI is tanking more than 6.60%, down to $96.11, weighed down by Axios reporting that US President Trump prefers to give diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed strikes.
Gold (XAU/USD) benefited from overall US Dollar weakness, given its positive correlation with WTI, and is poised to gain more than 1.50% to $3,964 per troy ounce. Despite this, per market structure, the overall trend remains downwards, but if buyers reclaim $4,000, a recovery is likely. Additionally, falling US Treasury yields are another catalyst that pushed the yellow metal to current spot prices.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that Chinese sentiment weakened in October as official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell below 50, while construction new orders dropped towards record lows. Input costs and producer prices point to rising producer inflation. Despite this, USD/CNY slipped below 6.65, leaving the CNY at its strongest level against the Dollar in more than four years, continuing a slow, managed appreciation.
Yuan firms as domestic data softens
"China’s economic sentiment took a hit at the start of the fourth quarter. In October, the official purchasing managers’ indices for both manufacturing and the rest of the economy fell back below the 50-point expansion threshold, reversing September’s recovery. Only the privately compiled RatingDog PMI (formerly Caixin) remained above the threshold, at 52."
"In services, the current business activity index at least managed to hold at 50 despite declining, while sentiment in construction fell from 50.3 to 48. New orders in construction dropped to 40, a level close to its all-time low outside the pandemic period."
"Input costs, by contrast, continue to rise. The price indices for raw materials and producer prices point to producer price inflation of 0.3% month-on-month. The annual rate, which most recently stood at 5%, may therefore have risen further in October."
"The CNY, meanwhile, remains unfazed by these developments, with USD/CNY falling below 6.65 this morning. This put the CNY at its strongest level against the US dollar in more than four years. In October alone, it appreciated by 0.7%, continuing its path of slow and managed appreciation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold rallies over 2% to $3,954 as US Dollar weakness accelerates.
- US 10-year Treasury yields drop nearly six basis points to 4.871%.
- December Fed hike odds hold near 75% amid stronger US manufacturing.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds and gains over 2% on Monday as crude prices drift lower, dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower due to its positive correlation, as elevated energy prices exert pressure on inflation. XAU/USD trades at $3,954 at the time of writing.
XAU/USD surges as falling energy prices and Treasury yields revive bullion demand
Oil prices are collapsing amid growing speculation for a diplomatic exit from the US-Iran conflict. Reports say that Iran’s supreme leader granted “certain authorities” regarding peace talks to President Masoud Pezeshkian. News that US President Donald Trump wants a peaceful resolution improved risk appetite, a headwind for the Greenback, which usually fares well amid high interest-rate scenarios and on its safe-haven appeal.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is down 0.27% at 101.68. US Treasury yields also edged lower, with the 10-year yield losing nearly 6 basis points to 4.871%.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved from 54.5 to 55.5 in October, exceeding forecasts of 54.6. The report showed that the Prices Paid sub-component fell from 77.9 to 75.2, while an employment measure cooled during the month.
Even though business activity reached its second-highest reading in more than four years, an indication that the economy is expanding solidly, traders trimmed hawkish bets from a week ago. Money markets see a 75% chance of a rate hike in December, down from 80% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
What is on the US calendar
Traders' focus is on Tuesday’s US midterm elections, Factory Orders, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Recovery incomplete, but reclaims $3,900
Despite bouncing off yearly lows, Gold’s trend remains up, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows buyers are gaining momentum. The XAU/USD pair bounced from below $3,900 to current spot prices, but it remains below the latest cycle low at $3,975, the October 23 low of the day (LOD), which has turned into resistance.
To complete a bullish reversal, buyers must surpass the October 23 LOD followed by the $4,000 psychological level. A breach of the latter will see Gold face a key resistance trendline near $4,050-$4,070, ahead of $4,100.
For a bearish continuation, Gold needs to fall below $3,900. This will expose the October 30 yearly low of $3,870, followed by the April 22, 2025, daily high, turned into support at $3,500.
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong retain a cautious stance on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), forecasting USD/IDR at 18100 by end-2026, peaking at 18200 in 1Q27 before easing to 17850 by end-2027. MSCI-related index uncertainty, elevated Oil prices and lingering Fed tightening risks may intensify pressures into early 2027, with spot potentially overshooting the forecast path before stabilising as external headwinds ease.
Rupiah under pressure then stabilising
"MSCI-related uncertainty remains an overhang, although Indonesian policymakers appear to be making efforts to address investor concerns and stabilise sentiment."
"Pressures may intensify into 1Q27 as MSCI’s review deadline draws closer and investor scrutiny of Indonesia’s progress increases."
"In addition, concerns of further Fed tightening and elevated oil prices could compound near-term pressures, potentially pushing spot USD/IDR temporarily above our forecast trajectory."
"We retain a cautious outlook on IDR, with USD/IDR projected at 18100 at end-2026 and 18200 in 1Q27, before easing towards 17850 by end-2027."
"We expect some stabilisation later in 2027, conditional on an easing in external headwinds and progress in addressing MSCI’s concerns."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/MXN plunges 1.17% to 18.56 as Peso buyers return.
- Mexico's GDP expanded 3.2% in Q3, beating forecasts of 2.5%.
- December Fed hike odds ease to 77% ahead of US midterms.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) stages a comeback against the US Dollar (USD) as the week begins, following last Friday's strong GDP figures. At the same time, traders brace for the outcome of the US elections on Tuesday, even as they digest the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report. USD/MXN trades at 18.56, down 1.17%, at the time of writing.
USD/MXN tumbles as stronger economic growth and fading Fed hike bets weaken the Dollar
Last Friday, INEGI, Mexico’s National Statistics Agency, reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 0.9% in Q3 QoQ, above estimates of 0.7% but slower than Q2’s 1.4% growth. On an annual basis, Mexico’s economy grew 3.2%, above economists' estimates of 2.5%.
Regarding this, Mexico’s Finance Minister said that growth could reach the upper end of the government’s forecasts if momentum is sustained.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.5 to 55.5 in October, beating forecasts of 54.6. Although the data hints at overall economic strength, money markets trimmed the chances of a 25-basis-point rate hike from 80% a week ago to 77%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This could be attributed to Oil prices diving amid rising hopes for a resumption of peace talks between the US and Iran. News of a breakthrough in negotiations has arisen, and both sides are closing in on a preliminary agreement.
USD/MXN traders are also focused on US mid-term elections. According to Polymarket, the Democrats have a 75% chance of controlling the US Senate, and a 96% chance of controlling the US House of Representatives.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.5752, extending its advance well above the moving average triple (50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages) clustered near 17.7802, which reinforces a bullish near-term bias. The pair is pushing further away from the long-standing downward resistance trend line drawn from 21.0808, suggesting that the broader recovery phase remains intact, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index has cooled toward 58.6 from overbought readings, hinting at still constructive but less aggressive upside momentum.
On the topside, the primary obstacle is the descending resistance trend line that continues to cap the broader structure above the market, and any clear rejection there could slow the rally. On the downside, initial support is seen at the moving average triple around 17.78, before the horizontal floor at 16.89, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on deeper corrective dips.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Commerzbank underscores Taiwan’s exceptionally strong AI-driven Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and rising inflation, which bolster the case for a December CBC rate hike. These factors are supportive for TWD, yet large foreign portfolio outflows have kept USD/TWD near this year’s highs around 32.60. The bank expects a supportive tone for the pair in the near term.
AI-led growth and CBC tightening risks
"Taiwan's Q3 GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 14.4% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 12.0%), from 12.9% in Q2. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, the longest such expansion since 1986-87. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% qoq from 1.4% in Q2."
"The stronger-than-expected GDP expansion, alongside higher inflation, strengthens the case for monetary tightening by CBC at its 17 December meeting. CBC has maintained its benchmark discount rate at 2.00% for ten consecutive meetings, but its September meeting minutes revealed that two board members favoured raising rates."
"September headline inflation picked up to 2.7% yoy, while core inflation rose to 2.5%, suggesting that underlying price pressures warrant closer attention, although temporary food and seasonal factors contributed to the increase. A modest 12.5bp rate hike in December is increasingly plausible, although the CBC could still prefer to wait for clearer evidence of sustained inflationary pressures."
"Strong growth, Taiwan's substantial external surplus and increased expectations of CBC tightening are supportive of TWD. However, these positive fundamentals have been offset by substantial foreign portfolio outflows, which the CBC estimated at USD54.3bn from July to 21 October."
"Consequently, TWD could remain under near-term pressure despite strong economic fundamentals. The USD, oil prices, and net foreign equity flows will remain the key drivers for TWD. For USD/TWD, it is holding at the high for this year, around 32.60 and we look for a supportive tone in the near term."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong maintain a constructive outlook on the Chinese Yuan, projecting USD/CNY at 6.62 by end-2026 and 6.46 by end-2027. Stronger PBoC fixings signal greater policy tolerance for Renminbi (RMB) strength, while resilience despite broader US Dollar (USD) gains and expectations of easing USD strength support a measured appreciation trajectory, albeit with risks from renewed USD rallies or softer domestic growth.
Policy-backed RMB strength path
"We maintain a constructive outlook on RMB, with USD/CNY projected at 6.62 at end-2026 and 6.46 at end-2027."
"The recent pattern of stronger PBoC fixings appears to suggest slightly greater policy tolerance for continued RMB appreciation, although we expect the pace to remain measured."
"RMB’s resilience despite broader USD strength also points to an increasingly constructive market bias towards appreciation, reinforcing expectations for further currency gains."
"We expect this appreciation trajectory to extend into 2027, supported by a gradual easing in USD strength, although periodic consolidation is likely."
"A renewed USD rally, softer domestic growth or a shift in the fixing trajectory could temper the pace of appreciation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD struggles for direction as a softer US Dollar and falling Oil prices offset each other.
- WTI’s sharp decline weighs on the Canadian Dollar despite the BoC’s hawkish stance.
- US midterm elections and Friday’s employment reports could drive the pair’s next move.
USD/CAD trades in a choppy range on Monday as a softer US Dollar (USD) and falling Oil prices pull the pair in opposite directions. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3975 after touching 1.3941 on Friday, its lowest level since September 16.
Oil prices fall as traders respond to positive US-Iran diplomatic headlines. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain powers regarding negotiations, according to ISNA.
Earlier, Axios reported that US President Donald Trump favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $96 a barrel, down more than 5% on the day. Canada is a major crude Oil exporter, leaving the Loonie sensitive to swings in Oil prices.
The US Dollar trades under pressure as falling Oil prices ease inflation concerns, at least for now, and accelerate the decline in US Treasury yields. Yields have retreated from multi-year highs as the AI-led technology-stock sell-off increased demand for government bonds.
Meanwhile, traders also turned cautious ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.68, off an intraday low of 101.44 but still down 0.28% on the day.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that betting markets currently “favor a Democratic sweep,” with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi “putting the odds around 70%.” They argue that this configuration “points to a relatively muted initial market reaction if Democrats win both chambers,” as such an outcome is largely anticipated. By contrast, BBH cautions that “a Republican Senate hold would be the bigger surprise and could spark more market volatility.”
However, a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook should cushion the Greenback’s downside as policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% last week following September’s 25-basis-point (bps) increase. Traders are pricing in a 74% chance of a December hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Data released on Monday showed the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, beating expectations of 54.6. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index eased to 75.2 from 77.9, below the forecast of 77.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% last week and left the door open to further increases. Policymakers remain concerned that elevated energy costs could spread into broader inflation.
However, Monday’s Canadian manufacturing data pointed to weaker activity. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in October from 51.5 in September. Traders now await Friday’s employment reports from both countries, which could provide the next major catalyst for USD/CAD.
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to remain range-bound near 1.2785. In the 24-hour view, the pair is seen holding between key levels as downward momentum has stalled. Over the next 1–3 weeks, they still anticipate trading between 1.2775 and 1.2835, with a close below 1.2775 opening downside toward 1.2755. A clearer trend needs a sustained break of 1.2855 or 1.2755.
Dollar-Singapore Dollar stays sideways
"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 1.2795 in the early Asian session last Friday, we indicated that USD “is likely to edge lower.” However, we stated that “given the mild downward pressure, any decline is unlikely to break below the major support at 1.2775.” USD declined more than expected to 1.2771 before settling 0.15% lower at 1.2781. There has been no further increase in downward momentum, and instead of declining further today, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 1.2775 and 1.2800."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from last Tuesday (27 Oct, spot at 1.2810), when we highlighted that USD “is likely to trade between 1.2775 and 1.2835.” On Friday, USD broke below 1.2775 with a low of 1.2771 before recovering. Despite breaching the support level, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum. For the time being, we continue to hold the view that USD is likely to trade in a range between 1.2775 and 1.2835. Looking ahead, should USD close below 1.2775, it would then likely decline toward the next support level at 1.2755."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong project USD/KRW at 1320 by end-2026 and 1260 by end-2027, implying a moderate Korean Won (KRW) appreciation path that is unlikely to be linear. High-beta characteristics, elevated US yields and potential further Fed hikes keep near-term volatility high, while resilient exports and strong AI-related semiconductor demand underpin a constructive medium-term view as USD strength moderates.
Won recovery but choppy path
"Recovery bias but unlikely a straight line. We expect KRW to appreciate moderately into 2027, with USD/KRW projected at 1320 at end-2026 and 1260 at end-2027. The recovery is unlikely to be a straight line, given KRW’s high-beta characteristics and sensitivity to global risk sentiment and portfolio flows."
"Korea’s export resilience and continued strength in AI-related semiconductor demand should provide support, while expectations for hawkish Fed repricing to unwind and USD strength to moderate reinforce our medium-term constructive bias."
"Near term, however, still-elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of another Fed hike could sustain two-way volatility, while resident overseas investment flows may continue to complicate KRW’s response to equity market strength."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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