Forex News
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of risk rate hikes that could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum.
Key quotes
Must be mindful of risk rate hikes could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum, when asked whether further rate hike such as in December would be premature.
Central bank independence is an important framework to achieve price stability, when asked if BoJ rate hikes could affect government’s economic policy.
Don’t have specific idea in mind on terminal rate. My view is that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is in the lower side of boj staff’s estimated range.
Terminal rate and neutral rate are very closely intertwined.
BoJ does not directly control FX, so won’t comment on what desirable level of dollar/yen could be.
BoJ’s Asada flags cautious path for future rate hikes and limited FX focus
BoJ’s Asada scores 4.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the historic 3.7/10 baseline, signaling a slightly more impactful but still cautious stance. The emphasis on being mindful that rate hikes could dampen underlying inflation amid weak consumption leans dovish, suggesting limited appetite for an early follow-up move, such as a December hike.
Asada’s comments that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is on the lower side of BoJ staff estimates, and that the terminal and neutral rates are closely intertwined, reinforce a view that the eventual peak in rates will be relatively low. The refusal to discuss a desirable DOLLAR/YEN level and the stress on central bank independence underline that BoJ policy will stay focused on domestic price stability rather than FX targeting, which should temper expectations for aggressive tightening as a tool to support the YEN.
Market reaction
At press time, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.09% lower at around 159.72.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- Gold drifts lower for the third straight day as the post-US CPI USD buying remains unabated.
- Firming Fed rate hike bets and Middle East risks lift the safe-haven USD to April 2025 highs.
- The setup suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to its bearish tone for the third straight day on Thursday, trading below the $4,000 psychological mark and near its lowest level in more than a week, touched during the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) extends a hot US consumer inflation figures-led rally amid Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations and Middle East uncertainties. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the commodity.
The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released earlier this week, underpinned prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. Moreover, hawkish comments from several influential FOMC members reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. Adding to this, traders have also started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike next month. The outlook pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond back above the 5% threshold on Wednesday and continues to act as a tailwind for the Greenback.
Fed hawks firm up December hike expectations as political-pressure fears fade
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the market’s response to the latest hawkish signals from Fed officials, “including those from Waller that put the risk of a 50-bps rate hike on the table,” goes beyond the immediate repricing of the policy path. They note that the market is now “fully priced for a December rate hike,” and, crucially, that these comments were “met with no real speculation that the Fed would be pressured by political forces not to raise rates.”
Rabobank adds that “since Fed Chair Warsh surprised the market with a hawkish position at Jackson Hole in August, fears about diminished Fed credibility have dissipated.” In their view, “the results of last week’s midterm elections suggest less reason to expect pressure from the White House,” reinforcing the perception that the Fed can proceed with its tightening plans without significant political interference.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides striking islands in the waterway in recent days. In fact, US forces reportedly carried out a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Tehran attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the strategic waterway and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution.
The aforementioned factors lift the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its highest level since April 2025 and back the case for additional gains. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside and any attempted recovery is more likely to be sold into. Traders now look to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and speeches from Fed officials. Apart from this, incoming geopolitical headlines might infuse volatility, providing some impetus to the buck and the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The precious metal maintains a bearish near-term tone following the previous day's rejection near the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,044. A subsequent fall below the 50.0% retracement and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark validate the negative bias. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has just turned marginally positive. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 31 and only recovering slightly from the oversold territory. Momentum indicators merely hint at stabilization rather than a decisive upside reversal, while gold remains capped by clustered resistance overhead.
In the meantime, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $3,976, ahead of deeper Fibonacci floors at $3,930 (78.6%) and $3,870 (100%), where buyers could attempt to defend the broader uptrend if the current pullback extends. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at $4,009, followed by a dense barrier around the 38.2% retracement at $4,041 aligned with the 100-period EMA at $4,044. A sustained strength above the latter would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement at $4,082 and the cycle high anchor near $4,147.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.54% | 0.67% | 0.81% | 0.98% | 0.45% | 0.14% | 1.66% | |
| EUR | -0.54% | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.44% | 0.01% | -0.38% | 1.12% | |
| GBP | -0.67% | -0.14% | 0.15% | 0.29% | -0.13% | -0.54% | 0.97% | |
| JPY | -0.81% | -0.30% | -0.15% | 0.13% | -0.45% | -0.67% | 0.77% | |
| CAD | -0.98% | -0.44% | -0.29% | -0.13% | -0.54% | -0.85% | 0.72% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.45% | 0.54% | -0.40% | 1.01% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | 0.38% | 0.54% | 0.67% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 1.53% | |
| CHF | -1.66% | -1.12% | -0.97% | -0.77% | -0.72% | -1.01% | -1.53% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/CHF may regain as the US Dollar gains support on Fed rate hike bets in December.
- Markets price in a 13% probability of a larger 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
- The Swiss National Bank is expected to hold rates at 0% with contained inflation and falling oil prices.
USD/CHF inches lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.8330 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair could regain ground as the US Dollar (USD) draws support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook, driven by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside nearly a 13% chance of a larger 50-basis-point increase.
Dollar support underpinned by Fed independence and enduring safe haven role
Strategists at Rabobank argue that the backdrop for the USD has improved as “diminished fears about political interference on the Fed is a supportive factor for the USD.” They add that the market reaction “at the start of the Gulf war,” where “strong demand for the USD undermined last year’s claims that the USD’s had lost at least part of its safe haven value,” reinforces the currency’s defensive credentials. In their view, the Dollar’s safe-haven status is structurally anchored, with its appeal “linked to its embedded position in global payments systems, which could take decades to shake.”
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0% during its upcoming meeting. Although financial markets are pricing in a potential rate hike by early 2027, most economists anticipate the first increase will take place closer to late 2027.
SNB Chairman Schlegel noted that price pressures remain contained and the central bank has met its medium-term price stability mandate, with declining oil prices further easing inflationary risks.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- USD/JPY ticks down to near 159.65 as the Japanese Yen outperforms.
- Japan’s PPI growth remains stronger-than-expected in December.
- The outlook of the USD/JPY remains firm as the Fed’s December rate hike looks certain.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its major currency peers on Thursday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the Asia-Pacific currency is marginally higher even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hits a fresh 18-month high at 103.08 during the day.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.20% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.15% | 0.12% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.08% | 0.11% | 0.08% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.31% | 0.27% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.13% | 0.18% | 0.15% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.31% | -0.18% | -0.02% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.27% | -0.15% | 0.02% | -0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.29% | 0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair edges down to near 159.65, but is close to its over two-month high of 159.94 posted on Wednesday.
The Japanese currency strengthens as hotter-than-projected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October is expected to strengthen hopes of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term.
Month-on-Month headline PPI grew by 0.7%, faster than 0.3% estimates. Inflation at the producer level was declined by 0.2% in September. On an annualized basis, the PPI unexpectedly grew at a faster pace of 7.1% against the prior release of 6.8%. The data was expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 6.5%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar outperforms amid fears of an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening going forward.
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the market’s response to the latest hawkish commentary from Fed officials, “including those from Waller that put the risk of a 50-bps rate hike on the table,” speaks to more than just a shift in rate expectations. They note that the market is now “fully priced for a December rate hike,” and, crucially, that these remarks were met “with no real speculation that the Fed would be pressured by political forces not to raise rates.”
Rabobank points out that “since Fed Chair Warsh surprised the market with a hawkish position at Jackson Hole in August, fears about diminished Fed credibility have dissipated.” In their view, “the results of last week’s mid-term elections suggest less reason to expect pressure from the White House,” reinforcing the perception that the central bank can proceed with policy tightening without significant political interference.
“In short,” Rabobank concludes, “markets have inferred that last week’s mid-term election result suggests that the issue of Fed credibility is likely to be diminished over the remainder of Trump’s term.” They argue that this development “should remove a significant potential hurdle from the outlook for the USD.”
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.69, keeping a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.34. The pair is extending its advance from last week’s pullback and the EMA clustered below price suggests underlying demand remains firm. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.66 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, hinting that upside momentum is constructive without yet appearing stretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 158.34, where buyers are likely to defend the recent breakout area on a corrective dip. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the technical tone would favor further gains, while a daily close below it would signal fading bullish control and open room for a deeper retracement.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index (MoM)
The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
Read more.Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 23:50
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.7%
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: -0.3%
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
- GBP/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day as the USD extends the post-US CPI rally.
- Firming Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks lift the USD to its highest level since April 2025.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the pair’s descending trend.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and drops to a fresh four-week low during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.3200s and seem vulnerable amid the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
Following the release of hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reaffirmed market bets for an imminent rate hike. Moreover, traders have started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase at the next FOMC meeting in December. This, along with Middle East uncertainties, lifts the USD to its highest level since April 2025 and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
However, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance could offer some support to the British Pound (GBP) and help limit further losses. Traders also seem hesitant and opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the monthly and quarterly GDP reports, before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained break below the 1.3300 mark and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from October lows was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, spot prices hold beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 1.3381, validating the negative outlook. This, along with the recent failed attempt to find acceptance above the 1.3500 mark, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the downside.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in oversold territory near 26, hinting at stretched downside conditions but not yet showing a decisive recovery signal. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and a subdued profile. This, in turn, backs the case for further losses towards the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3216, ahead of the next relevant support and the structural floor defined by the recent cycle low near 1.3138.
On the topside, any corrective bounce would first confront resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3278, followed by the 50% level at 1.3321 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.3364. Further up, the 100-period SMA at 1.3381 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3417 reinforce a broader cap, while the GBP/USD pair remains below this cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: 0.5%
Source: Office for National Statistics
- The Indian Rupee hits a fresh six-month high against the US Dollar.
- FIIs continue to raise their stake in the Indian stock market.
- The US Dollar outperforms its other peers as hopes of Fed’s bigger rate hike come into picture.
The Indian Rupee (INR) rises further against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, posting a fresh six-month low. The USD/INR pair falls to near 93.65 as the Indian currency outperforms on the back of strong inflows of overseas investment into the Indian stock market.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to increase their investment in the Indian equity market as fresh headwinds in the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks and falling energy prices have underpinned “India” as a competitive bet.
So far in November, FIIs have remained net buyers on all trading days, except Diwali Muhurat session, that fell on Sunday, November 08. Foreign investors have made a cumulative investment of Rs. 65,735.57 crore.
What are the fresh headwinds in global AI sector?
Concerns about the continuation of spending on AI infrastructure, following the victory of Democrats in the United States (US) midterm elections, pushed AI-related stocks into turmoil.
And now fears of replacement of Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang after reports from New York Times (NYT) of his extramarital affair with alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang and rumours of a relationship with his subordinate Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's vice president of health care, could put AI stocks under pressure.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that Nvidia's board was preparing to oust the CEO, adding that the next 48 hours as potentially volatile.
Lower oil prices – a tailwind for net energy importers
Falling oil prices due to hopes that the US and Iran would prefer a deal rather than renewing military attacks have improved the appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is down 2.42%, slightly below Rs. 8,000.
Investors ignore US Dollar’s outperformance
The Indian currency continues to outperform the US Dollar even as the latter has surged significantly in the past few trading days. In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 18-month high at around 103.06.
The US Dollar strengthens as financial markets take the possibility of a bigger interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the December policy meeting into consideration.
According to TD Securities, the “strong upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data makes a December hike all but certain,” with the bank reiterating that the data “certainly seals a Dec rate hike by the Fed.” Strategists note that “after Waller's speech on Tuesday, the debate has now shifted to whether the FOMC will go 25 or 50bps,” as Governor Waller’s pre-CPI remarks have sharpened the focus on the need for a potential “catch-up” move. TD Securities writes that the discussion will now centre on whether the Fed should implement a “catch-up 50bps rate hike in December, or whether to maintain course with a 25bps rate increase and provide strong guidance toward a potential January follow-through.” For now, they emphasize that “we still favor a 25bp hike with a rising risk of another hike in January.”
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 93.69, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.58.
The pair’s slide under this short-term trend benchmark suggests sellers remain in control, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 24 signals oversold conditions that could slow the downside without yet implying a confirmed reversal.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-day EMA at 94.5812, which caps recovery attempts and defines the first hurdle for any meaningful rebound. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline to near 93.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1080 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The pair maintains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first upside barrier emerges in the 1.1090-1.1100 region; the initial support level is seen at 1.1000.
The EUR/USD pair declines to near 1.1080 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A cautious stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). ECB policymaker Philip Lane said that energy prices may be falling, but the central bank’s interest rate decisions will depend on how strongly the recent surge in fuel costs spreads to wages and other prices.
On the other hand, bets on a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December started to grow after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report and comments by Fed governor Christopher Waller. Waller said that he would support a quarter-point rate increase in December and might push for a half-point move if inflation data is worse than expected.
Traders await the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday for more clues about the interest rate path. The headline PPI is expected to show a rise of 6.6% YoY in October, while the core PPI is projected to show an increase of 5.0% YoY during the same report period.
Euro outlook softens as ECB caution contrasts with Fed tightening
Strategists at Rabobank note that “the Fed is not the only G10 central bank widely expected to hike rates in December,” with the ECB “among those banks also likely to tighten policy.” However, they caution that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December,” pointing to signals from “the last ECB press conference” which “suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerns about the growth outlook.” In Rabobank’s house view, “market pricing for 2027 ECB rate rises remains too aggressive,” and they add that “another factor that could weigh on the EUR in the coming months are uncertainties about what a far-right president in France could mean for EU cooperation going forward.” Against this backdrop, Rabobank “forecast a move to EUR/USD1.10 on a 3-month view.”
Lane stresses consensus and delayed inflation response, modestly supportive for the Euro
Lane’s speech score of 6.2/10 matches the historic average on FXS Speechtracker, signaling a neutral overall impact but with a slight hawkish tilt. Emphasis on a “high premium on consensus” and a “high bar on directional forward guidance” suggests the ECB is reluctant to pre-commit on the policy path, yet wants flexibility via instruments for “multiple equilibriums” in the bond market, which can underpin Euro stability.
Lane’s focus on underlying inflation as a guide to one-year-ahead inflation, and the expectation of second-round effects, points to concern that price pressures may prove persistent even as energy prices reverse. The notion that headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation rises reinforces a cautious stance on easing, modestly supportive for the Euro as markets may price a slower and more conditional path to rate cuts.
Technical Analysis: Bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/USD extends its slide beneath all visible moving average and volatility benchmarks to keep a clear bearish bias in place. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) stays well above spot, reinforcing a medium-term capped structure, while price also trades under the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) lower band, hinting at persistent selling pressure around the recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered to 36 but remains below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest relief in momentum within an overall weak environment.
On the topside, initial resistance level emerges in the 1.1090-1.1100 zone, representing the lower limit of Bollinger band and the psychological level. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the middle band at 1.1180, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 1.1275 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1405.
On the downside, the 1.1000 round figure act as a key support level for the major pair. Sustained traing below the mentioned level could expose the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951, followed by the May 27, 2025 low of 1.0733.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The UK GDP is expected to show stronger economic growth in Q3.
- The Gross Domestic Product is seen accelerating further in the three months to September, boosted by strong manufacturing activity.
- The Pound Sterling against the US Dollar maintains a near-term positive trend, with bulls focusing on the 1.3500 area.
The highlight of the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic calendar this week will be the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which the Office for National Statistics will release on Thursday. The market is bracing for 0.7% growth in the three months to September, following 0.5% growth in the second quarter of 2026, with the annual rate accelerating to 1.9%, from 1.4% in the previous month.
Strong Industrial Production data, which is expected to have grown 3% in the 12 months to September, from 1.6% in August, is seen as one of the main drivers of the UK’s economic growth, which, if confirmed, would provide a favourable background for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy to extend the tightening cycle started last week.
UK GDP forecast: What numbers could tell us
Recent macroeconomic figures from the UK have shown surprising resilience to uncertainty from the war in the Middle East and higher Oil prices, which has improved market expectations about economic growth in the third quarter.
Monthly GDP data from August beat expectations last month, with the economy growing 0.1%, against market expectations of a 0.1% decline, thanks to the strong performance of the manufacturing sector. Factory output grew 0.8% in August, largely offsetting the flat performance of the services sector and a 0.2% decline in construction output.
Beyond that, UK Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures revealed that business activity continued growing in October, while unemployment declined to its lowest rate since July last year. All in all, a fairly healthy macroeconomic picture, which has prompted the International Monetary Fund to raise the UK's growth projections for 2026 to 1.3% from the previous 1%.
On the political front, a neutral UK budget has contributed to the economic bonanza, calming fears about the hefty public debt, at least for now, and providing support to the British Pound. Lower charges on food and energy bills are expected to be paid for by higher taxes on banks and gambling companies. The feared bond markets have not shown any significant objection to these plans.
All this acknowledged, the third quarter’s GDP report will be analysed with particular attention after last week’s Bank of England rate hike. Economic growth is not a specific target of the BoE’s mandate, but a healthy GDP will doubtless make the central bank’s rate-setting work much easier, considering the stubbornly high consumer inflation data.
Last week, the BoE tightened its monetary policy for the first time in three years. Some policymakers, including Governor Bailey, suggested the bank might need to hike rates further to bring inflation to target. BoE’s Deputy Governor, Clare Lombardelli, went further on Tuesday, affirming that she “would not rule out rate hike possibility in December”. Against this backdrop, a strong GDP reading on Thursday would endorse those views and might spur speculative demand for the Pound.
When will the UK release Q3 Gross Domestic Product, and how could it affect GBP/USD?
As noted, the UK will release the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate on Thursday at 07:00 GMT. Data is expected to show moderate economic growth in the three months to September, with the GBP/USD risk skewed to the upside, as a stronger-than-expected reading will boost odds of another BoE rate hike, most likely in February.
The GBP/USD pair trades around 1.3320 at the time of writing, following a sharp reversal on Tuesday, as strong US inflation data and hawkish comments by Fed speakers boosted the US Dollar across the board. Bears have pushed price action below the bottom of the ascending channel from October, and momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have turned bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) approaching oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing widening red bars.
According to Guillermo Alcalá, FX Analyst at FXStreet, “Recent GBP/USD price action suggests that the corrective recovery from mid-October lows might have come to an end, and that the pair is ready to resume the broader bearish trend.”
“While below the channel bottom and the November 6 low, near 1.3340, bears are likely to be tempted to revisit the late October lows near 1.3270, with their gaze on the key resistance area near 1.3130,” says Alcalá.
On the upside, Alcalá argues that “The pair would need to return above the broken trendline support, now around 1.3380, to ease bearish pressure, and shift the focus back towards the November 10 high near 1.3460 and the November peak, in the 1.3500 area.”
(This story was corrected on November 12 at 05:25 GMT to say When will the UK release Q3 Gross Domestic Product, not Q2; the UK will release the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate, not Q2 GDP. And to show moderate economic growth in the three months to September, not to June.)
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production (YoY)
The Industrial Production released by the National Statistics measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3%
Previous: 1.6%
Source: Office for National Statistics
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 1.9%
Previous: 1.4%
Source: Office for National Statistics
- Silver trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling.
- The range-bound price action below the 100-EMA on the 4-hour chart favors bearish traders.
- A sustained move above the $53.15-$53.20 hurdle is needed to negate the negative bias.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower following the previous day's two-way price swings, retesting the weekly trough around the $51.20-$51.15 area, during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, however, lacks follow-through selling and currently trades around mid-$51.00s, down less than 0.50% for the day.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD remains under clear bearish pressure following the recent repeated failures to make it through the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said barrier at $53.17 coincides with the top boundary of a one-week-old range and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index near 44 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in negative territory hint at subdued bullish momentum rather than an immediate reversal. Hence, some follow-through selling below the trading range support near the $51.00 mark is needed to back the case for any further depreciating move.
The XAG/USD might then fall to levels below the $50.00 psychological mark en route to the next relevant support near the $49.00 round figure and a one-year low, around the $48.65-$48.60 region, touched last Tuesday. On the top side, the $53.15-$53.20 area forms the first significant hurdle that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/IDR reached an all-time high of 18,272 amid fears over Indonesia’s emerging-market status.
- Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s resignation has heightened political uncertainty and risked splitting the ruling coalition.
- The US Dollar gains support from a hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook following hotter-than-expected US inflation data.
USD/IDR rises after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 18,260 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair climbed to a fresh record high of 18,272 amid renewed concerns over Indonesia’s emerging-market status. The latest drop followed MSCI’s decision to remove a local firm from its indexes, a fresh setback after the index provider warned last month that persistent investability issues could lead to the country being reclassified as a standalone market.
Meanwhile, political uncertainty has intensified after Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka resigned. His departure raises the risk of a split within the ruling coalition of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, which could complicate policymaking for an administration already facing scrutiny over broader economic management and flagship initiatives like its free school meals programme.
Additionally, the USD/IDR pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook, following hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike, especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted earlier this week that he would back a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in around an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside a nearly 13% chance of a larger 50 basis point increase.
Technical Analysis: USD/IDR reaches near overbought territory
In the daily chart, USD/IDR trades at 18,260, extending its advance above both the short-term and medium-term trend markers. The nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sit below price, suggesting a well-supported uptrend after the latest breakout. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.99 hovers near overbought territory, hinting at strong bullish momentum but also raising the risk of a short-term pause rather than an immediate reversal.
On the downside, initial support sits at the nine-period EMA near 18,147.87, with a deeper protective layer at the 50-period EMA around 18,010.74 if corrective pressure emerges. As long as USD/IDR holds above these moving average supports, the near-term bias remains constructive, and any dips toward the EMA cluster are likely to attract fresh buying interest.
Goolsbee flags troubling inflation persistence, reinforcing hawkish Fed tone
Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a notably more hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 compared to the established baseline of 6.8/10, underscoring rising concern about inflation dynamics. By calling the latest CPI “borderline disturbing” and highlighting that services inflation is “not coming down,” the speech framed inflation as a “real issue” driven by both cost and demand sides, with a clear warning about overheating prices and the risk of expectations becoming unanchored. The insistence that “everything is always on the table” and that inflation must be brought back to target reinforces the likelihood of a policy stance biased toward tighter conditions, even as the job market is described as steady and stable.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This move signals that, within FXS Fed Sentiment Index metrics, Goolsbee’s remarks materially strengthened the perceived hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve’s policy narrative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Indonesian Rupiah FAQs
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum.
Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows.
From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements.
As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
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