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Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues that two months of broad Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contraction leave China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth tracking below the official 4.5%-5.0% target, intensifying pressure on Beijing. Fiscal spending is slowly easing from austerity, with new coordinated measures planned for H2. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) signals moderately loose policy and potential Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and rate cuts, with pre-emptive easing before year-end more likely.

Fiscal and monetary support under pressure

"The cumulative weight of two consecutive months of broad PMI contraction intensifies pressure on Beijing to deliver more substantive policy support. GDP growth is tracking below the official full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, with the economy having gotten off to a sluggish start in Q2."

"On the fiscal side, government spending contracted 4.4% yoy in July, an improvement from June's 11.9% decline, suggesting a gradual easing of the austerity stance that had weighed heavily on activity. Vice Finance Minister Liao Min confirmed that new coordinated fiscal and financial policies are being drafted for deployment in H2, signaling that the fiscal response is being calibrated."

"On the monetary side, the PBoC's Q2 monetary policy implementation report reaffirmed a commitment to moderately loose policy and vowed to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, while signaling plans to make greater use of overnight reverse repo operations as a liquidity management tool."

"With the August PMI data providing fresh evidence of demand-side fragility and the fiscal rollout running behind schedule, the case for pre-emptive monetary easing before year-end has strengthened."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong say the Singapore Dollar (SGD) slipped as the broad Dollar rebounded after Jackson Hole, but still retains relative resilience thanks to the S$NEER policy and firm domestic fundamentals. They caution that further USD/SGD downside may be harder to extend near term, with risks skewed to the upside and key resistance at 1.2740 and 1.2780/1.2790, and support at 1.2680 and 1.2650.

Dollar rebound caps Singapore Dollar downside

"SGD slipped amid broad USD rebound post-Jackson Hole. SGD could still retain relative resilience given effects of S$NEER policy backdrop and firm domestic fundamentals, but further USD/SGD downside may be harder to extend in the near term."

"A renewed move lower would likely require softer US data and a resumption of broader USD weakness, while RMB direction remains another key influence."

"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart faded but RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside in the interim."

"Resistance here at 1.2740 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2780/90 levels (50% fibo, 21 DMA). Support at 1.2680 (76.4% fibo), 1.2650. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Gold slips as Warsh remarks revive September Fed hike bets.
• Oil rally lifts inflation fears, pushing Treasury yields higher.
• US PMIs and jobs data drive next bullion catalyst.

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats some 0.40% on Monday after last Friday's hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, which sparked speculation of a possible rate hike at the September meeting. Despite this, bullion is poised to end the month with gains of over 9%, with XAU/USD trading at $4,432 after hitting a daily high of $4,472.

XAU/USD retreats as higher Oil prices revive inflation and Fed hike risks

Warsh's said last Friday that the Fed is committed to tackling high inflation, even if it does not aim for the 2% goal, with the new Fed Chair noting that they “have work to do” if prices remain elevated.

Aside from this, the main theme on Monday is the conflict in the Middle East. The US and Iran exchanged strikes, which pushed energy prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, rose 2.50% on Monday to $85.62, a headwind for the yellow metal.

Why? Becausehigher energy prices increase the chances of higher interest rates. Hence, Gold fares positively amid lower-yield environments, not the current one, as the US 10-year Treasury yield is up two and a half basis points at 4.706%.

The Greenback retreats some 0.25%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck against six currencies, is at 99.42, below last week’s high of 99.72.

Given the current backdrop, money markets have priced in at least 26 basis points of tightening towards the year-end, according to Prime Terminal. For the September 16 meeting, the odds stand at 64% for a hike and 36% for keeping the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

Ahead this week, the US economic docket will be busy, with the release of ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, a tranche of jobs data – JOLTS Job Openings and Initial Jobless Claims –and, to end, Nonfarm Payrolls figures.

XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold fails to conquer $4,500, eyes are on 100-day SMA

Price action shows Gold is trapped within the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around $4,370 and $4,528, respectively, with no definitive direction as a ‘doji’ candle forms in the daily chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be normalising, despite remaining above its 50-neutral level, which suggests buyers are in charge, but price action suggests XAU could be trading sideways.

For a bullish resumption, Gold must reclaim $4,500 followed by the 200-day SMA. Above this area, the next resistance is the August 25 swing high at $4,697, ahead of the $4,700 mark

Downwards, the first support is $4,400, followed by the 100-day SMA. A decisive push below that level opens the path to $4,300 and to the 50-day SMA at $4,211.

• Silver trades in a narrow range on Monday following Friday's sharp 4.11% drop.
• Technically, XAG/USD has slipped below its 100-day SMA, tilting the near-term bias bearish.
• The RSI at 53 has eased from above 60, signaling fading bullish momentum, while the MACD flattens near the zero line.

Silver (XAG/USD) is little changed on Monday, caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, leaving the metal without clear direction after tumbling 4.11% on Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.25, down 0.23% on the day.

Warsh's inflation-focused remarks at Jackson Hole initially pushed the US Dollar to over one-week highs, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing as high as 99.72, as traders revived bets on a September rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at next month's meeting. The Greenback has since retraced most of those gains on Monday, with the DXY trading around 99.44 at the time of writing.

From a technical perspective, the latest leg lower has pushed XAG/USD back below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), tilting the near-term bias to bearish, though the metal still holds above the 50-day SMA at $61 and a Fibonacci support band between $60.97 (61.8% retracement) and $64.79 (38.2% level).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 53 remains in neutral territory, having eased from above 60, suggesting bullish momentum is starting to fade while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers near the zero line with a flattened profile, hinting at a consolidative phase before the next directional move.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.16, followed closely by the 100-day SMA near $68, where a sustained break would open the way toward the Fibonacci structural anchor at $70.99 and ultimately the 200-day SMA at $72.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $64.79, with deeper demand located at the 50% level at $62.88 and the 61.8% retracement at $60.97, while the 50-day SMA at $61 reinforces this broader demand zone on any extended pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• AUD/USD trades in a tight range around 0.7160 as markets balance rising Fed and RBA rate-hike expectations.
• Warsh's inflation-focused Jackson Hole speech fueled bets on a September Fed rate hike.
• Geopolitical tensions resurface with renewed US-Iran hostilities, keeping energy‑driven inflation risks elevated.

AUD/USD trades in a narrow range on Monday as markets weigh hawkish expectations from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7167, with a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) helping cushion the downside.

Fed rate hike bets regained traction following Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Warsh emphasized that inflation remains well above target and reiterated that interest rates are the Fed’s primary tool to restore price stability.

Following Warsh’s remarks, traders repriced September rate hike bets, sending the US Dollar to over one‑week highs while front‑end Treasury yields surged. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 65% probability of a 25‑basis‑point (bps) increase at next month’s meeting.

However, the Greenback lost momentum on Monday and retraced most of the gains recorded on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, traded around 99.41, down 0.27% on the day. Nevertheless, expectations of tighter monetary policy should keep the dollar supported, with attention now turning to US labor market data due this week, which could influence the Fed’s September decision.

Geopolitical tensions also remain in focus after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran. This keeps energy‑driven inflation risks elevated, further reinforcing the case for major central banks to maintain a hawkish stance.

AUD supported as RBA repricing

FX strategists at OCBC say their “base case remains that the RBA has reached the end of its tightening cycle.” However, they note that “a stronger-than-expected CPI print and resilient household spending have kept the risk of another rate hike alive,” prompting a notable shift in market pricing. “Following these releases, markets fully priced an additional 25bp hike by end-2026, up from around a 55% probability previously.”

Looking ahead, OCBC says, “we remain constructive on AUD over the next one to two quarters, supported by its attractive carry and the prospect of further Chinese policy stimulus.”

On Australia’s economic docket this week, traders await Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures alongside S&P Global PMI surveys for August. China's RatingDog PMI for August is also on the radar, with the release particularly significant given China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), stabilizing after recent losses and attempting a modest recovery from upper-1.15 lows. They emphasize focus on European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, with euro area Consumer Price Index (CPI) seen at a fresh 3.3% peak. They see limited further downside, a bullish medium-term trend, and a near-term 1.1550–1.1650 trading band.

Euro stabilizes with bullish trend intact

"The EUR is up a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Monday’s NA session. The EUR looks to have found some stability in the aftermath of Friday’s losses, and appears to be attempting a modest recovery from its upper-1.15 lows."

"The focus is likely to remain centered on fundamentals and the outlook for relative central bank policy as we head toward the next ECB (Sept 10) and Fed (Sept 16) decisions. This week’s calendar includes the euro area CPI figures on Tuesday, where headline is expected to make a fresh cycle peak of 3.3%."

"Yield spreads are showing signs of a renewed recovery following their pullback from mid-August, and policymakers at the ECB remain overwhelmingly hawkish as they manage expectations for a September hike and hint to the prospect of additional tightening before year end."

"Neutral/bullish – the RSI’s pullback has been sharp, and it now hovers just above the neutral threshold at 50. The trend from late June remains bullish, and we continue to highlight the possibility of a medium-term push back above the Q2 highs around 1.18."

"We see limited scope for further downside from here and see support at 1.1550 and 1.1520. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1550 and 1.1650."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The US Dollar (USD) has faded part of Friday’s strong advance despite the geopolitical landscape seeming to have deteriorated a tad in the last few days, while market participants appear to have already digested the hawkish remarks from Chair Warsh in Jackson Hole.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 1:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has started the week on the back foot, breaking below 99.50 amid the mixed performance of US Treasury yields and steady geopolitical concerns. Next on tap will be the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, seconded by the JOLTs Job Openings and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

EUR/USD has left behind part of the recent sharp retracement, regaining the area above 1.1600 the figure on the back of the fresh selling interest hurting the buck. The publication of the preliminary Inflation Rate in the Euroland will take centre stage alongside Retail Sales in Germany.

GBP/USD has reversed three consecutive daily pullbacks and regained the smile, managing to retest the 1.3550-1.3560 band on Monday. A busy docket across the Channel will see the Nationwide Housing Prices, the BRC Shop Price Inflation, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approvals/Lending and Net Lending to Individuals figures.

USD/JPY has come under fresh downside pressure, reversing a multi-day positive streak and returning to the 159.50 region following an early move past the key 160.00 barrier. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due, seconded by Capital Spending prints and the Consumer Confidence gauge.

AUD/USD has met contention near 0.7150, managing to advance modestly and partially offset Friday’s marked decline. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will see the light followed by Q2 Current Account results, Building Permits and Private House Approvals.

Prices of WTI advanced to six-day highs near the $87.00 mark per barrel on the back of the unabated effervescence in the Middle East.

Gold has come under pressure, briefly breaching below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce before attempting a tepid bounce afterwards. The yellow metal has remained on the defensive despite the US Dollar’s offered stance, Middle East concerns and mixed US Treasury yields across the spectrum.

• WTI trades near $85.00, up 2.5%, still inside the August range.
• Two launchers hit, no production lost, no barrel confirmed missing.
• Hormuz transits down to about five a day over the weekend.

Crude Oil trades near $85.00 and 2.5% higher on the session on Monday, after American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island and Tehran answered with missile and drone attacks on two air bases in Jordan. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened near $84.00, ran to a session high just short of $86.00, and has held most of that ground. Nothing that happened over the weekend removed a barrel from the market.

What two launchers actually threatened

The military content of Sunday's strike rounds to nothing. Two mobile launchers on a small island do not change the balance of anything, and Central Command described the action as limited and precise, which is the language of a traffic stop rather than a campaign. What the launchers were carrying is the entire story.

Sea mines are the only cheap instrument capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and Central Command had cleared the last batch out of the international shipping lanes the week before. Iran was reloading. The barrel is repricing the odds that a waterway just declared clear gets mined again, which is a transit risk rather than a production loss, and the two behave very differently in a curve.

Shipping data agrees that transit is where the damage sits. Visible commodity vessels crossing the strait fell to roughly five a day over the weekend, and British maritime authorities reported a tanker struck by a projectile on an inbound run on Saturday. About a fifth of the world's Crude Oil moved through that water before the war began at the end of February.

The supply shock nobody can locate

The loudest supply claim of the weekend arrived with no evidence attached. President Trump posted that Kharg Island, the terminal handling almost all Iranian Crude Oil exports, was being destroyed, and the post carried an artificially generated clip and no further detail. No independent confirmation that the island was under attack has surfaced since.

The flow numbers have meanwhile been improving rather than collapsing. Bank estimates put Gulf exports at roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, well up from the 5 million to 6 million trough in March and still short of a prewar 22 million to 24 million. A market genuinely discounting a fresh catastrophe would not be sitting two thirds of the way back to normal.

The tape sides with the flow numbers rather than the headline. A 2.5% session that stops short of the late-August peak, inside a band the barrel has not escaped since the first week of the month, is a risk premium being topped up rather than a supply loss being discounted.

The mechanism that actually removes barrels this quarter is administrative rather than kinetic. The Treasury sanctioned close to 60 entities, individuals and vessels on Monday, and the secretary has signalled a fresh secondary package roughly every week from here. Sanctions take longer to bite than a missile and they do not photograph well, which is why the tape keeps paying for the strike and discounting the paperwork.

The week the barrel writes its own ceiling

Pricing for a September Federal Reserve increase sits near 60% after Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, against roughly 35% before it, and a barrel through $85.00 is among the reasons it stays there. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) lands Tuesday at 14:00 GMT with prices paid forecast at 72 against 71.1 prior, and the services equivalent follows Thursday with that line last at 70.3.

Those two subindices are where an energy shock registers before it reaches any inflation release, which makes this week a feedback loop rather than a calendar. Energy lifts prices paid, prices paid lifts hike odds, hike odds lift the Dollar, and a firmer Dollar caps the barrel that started the sequence.

Friday's employment report is the week's last event, with August payrolls forecast at 58K after a 23K contraction and hourly earnings accelerating to 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. The private payroll count lands Wednesday at 12:15 GMT at a forecast 47K, and the Beige Book follows at 18:00 GMT the same day. None of it changes the supply picture, and all of it changes the rate that supply picture is discounted against.

Levels to watch

Resistance: The session high just short of $86.00 is the first line, with the late-August peak near $86.50 above it. Beyond there the August ceiling near $87.00 has turned back every attempt this month, and the July spike high just above $92.00 is the only reference left in the window.

Support: The session floor sits in the $83.50 area, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $82.00 the next line beneath it. Below there the 200-day EMA near $78.50 has not been tested since the first week of August, and the base near $74.00 anchors the month.

Bias: Bullish while the $83.50 area holds, with targets at $86.00 and then $86.50. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 75 is climbing toward the overbought band with room still above it, and the sequence of higher lows since early August remains intact. Invalidation on a daily close beneath $82.00.

WTI daily chart

• GBP/USD rises modestly as the US Dollar softens before US data.
• Iran tensions lift Oil, keeping inflation and Fed risks alive.
• US jobs data and BoE hearings drive next catalysts.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances during the North American session on Monday, up a modest 0.09%, as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower despite last Friday’s hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US). At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3549.

GBP/USD steadies as traders weigh Warsh, Oil risks and upcoming data

Sentiment shifted sour as tensions between the US and Iran rose, driving energy prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, hit $85.56 per barrel, up some 2.50% after reaching a high of $86.79.

Attacks between the two countries decreased the likelihood of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran attacked US assets in Jordan and the UAE. Consequently, US President Donald Trump said retaliation is coming, according to Fox News.

On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recognized that inflation remains above the central bank’s target and is a priority, while assuring that the jobs market is solid.

After his speech, money markets had priced in a 64% chance of a rate increase for the September 16 meeting. Meanwhile, traders eye the release of Nonfarm Payrolls figures on Friday, followed by inflation data a week before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

On Tuesday, the US economic docket will release figures on manufacturing activity, namely the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to show a deceleration from 55.6 to 55.2. Also, traders will eye the release of JOLTS Job Openings for July, which are expected to show the strength of the labor market.

In the UK, domestic developments regarding new PM Andy Burnham's Autumn Budget, along with US Dollar dynamics, will provide direction for GBP/USD. Also, market participants would be keen to digest the Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Hearings ahead of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Thursday.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3550, keeping a bullish near-term bias as the pair holds above the cluster of reclaimed structural levels and the triple simple moving average (50, 100, 200) around 1.3429. The break above the former descending resistance line with a key reference at 1.3385 and the downtrend line that previously capped gains near 1.3482 suggests buyers remain in control, while a Relative Strength Index (14) reading near 54 hints at steady, but not overstretched, momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent pivot area around 1.3550, followed by the former trend-line barriers now turned floors at 1.3482 and 1.3385, with the triple SMA and an additional rising support line clustered in the 1.3409–1.3429 region reinforcing the medium-term base. On the topside, the next notable resistance aligns with the broken rising trend line around 1.3644, where a rejection would signal consolidation, while a sustained break higher would open the way for a continuation of the broader bullish advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• DXY trades just beneath 99.50, down 0.26%, turned back at the 200-day EMA.
• The European Central Bank meets September 9-10, a week ahead of the Fed.
• September hike odds near 60% in the United States, near 84% in Japan.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades just beneath 99.50 and 0.26% lower on Monday, on a session that handed it every input a currency is supposed to rally on. American forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island, Crude Oil ran better than 2% higher, yields rose across the curve, and pricing for a September Federal Reserve (Fed) increase sits near 60% against roughly 35% before Friday. The Dollar opened on its own 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), poked briefly above it, and has traded beneath it since.

Everybody turned hawkish at the same time

The repricing that followed Friday's Jackson Hole keynote was not an American event, and Monday made that unmistakable. Borrowing costs in the euro area and Japan reached their highest levels in years, Japanese two-year paper touched a 31-year high, German and French two-year yields went to their best since 2024, and longer-dated euro-area yields hit levels not seen in more than fifteen years.

A rate differential requires one side to move alone. What happened instead is that a barrel through the $85.00 handle raised the inflation problem for every major economy at once, and every rates market repriced the same way inside the same six hours. The Dollar cannot be paid a premium for a policy turn its counterparties are also being priced for.

The least certain hiker in its own basket

Basket construction turns that into an outright headwind. The Euro accounts for roughly 58% of the Dollar Index and the Yen for another 14%, so close to three quarters of the thing sits with two central banks now carrying a firmer expectation of a September increase than the Federal Reserve does.

The European Central Bank meets September 9-10 and is widely expected to raise, arriving a full week before the American decision on September 16, with euro-area inflation data this week likely to firm that case rather than soften it. Pricing for a Bank of Japan increase on September 18 runs near 84%. The Federal Reserve sits in the middle of that queue carrying the thinnest conviction of the three. A currency gets paid when the market expects it to tighten harder than the other side, not when the same expectation is sitting on everyone.

The August low was never a monetary event

The base this recovery is climbing off has nothing to do with the policy rate. The Dollar Index made its August low near 98.50 in the sessions after the Treasury expanded long-dated buybacks on August 19, and the mechanism behind that low is a long end carrying supply and term premium rather than rate expectations. Twenty-five basis points on the front end does not retire a single bond.

Monday restated the point in the plainest available terms. Long yields rose and the Dollar fell, which is the behaviour of a credit rather than a currency, and the 30-year reached a 19-year high in mid-August without the Dollar taking any benefit from it. A hawkish central bank helps a currency when the market is worried about inflation. It does considerably less when the market is worried about issuance.

Positioning says the same thing from the other side. A Dollar that cannot hold a gain on the most hawkish domestic headline of the summer, on a day also carrying a live military escalation, does not have buyers stacked underneath it. The haven bid that usually appears on war days went somewhere else this time, and Gold heading for its best month since January is the clearest indication of where.

The week that has to close the gap

Only a genuine American upside surprise narrows any of this, and the calendar gives it four attempts. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) lands Tuesday at 14:00 GMT with prices paid forecast at 72 against 71.1 prior, the private payroll count follows Wednesday at 12:15 GMT at a forecast 47K, and the services reading arrives Thursday with its own prices paid line last at 70.3.

Friday carries the August employment report at 12:30 GMT, with payrolls forecast at 58K after a 23K contraction, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and hourly earnings accelerating to 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. The chair has already described the labour market as stable and consistent with full employment, so the report is more likely to confirm the existing path than to steepen it. The gap this index needs is a relative one, and nothing on the American calendar can shrink a relative gap on its own.

Levels to watch

Resistance: The session high stopped on the 200-day EMA, with both sitting just beneath 99.75. Above there the 50-day EMA near 100.00 is declining and has capped every attempt since the first week of August, with the late-July shelf near 100.50 beyond it.

Support: The session floor sits near 99.40, with the 99.00 handle the next shelf beneath it. Below that the August low near 98.50 is the base of the whole move and the level the buyback repricing established.

Bias: Bearish while 99.75 caps, with objectives at the 99.00 handle and then 98.50. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 30 is turning up out of the oversold band, which normally argues for more bounce, but a bounce that fails at the 200-day EMA on the most hawkish news flow available all summer has answered the question. Invalidation on a daily close above 100.00.

DXY daily chart