Forex News
- The Oil price rises 1.7% to near $59.30 as the OPEC+ agrees to hold the Oil supply from the first quarter of 2026.
- OPEC+ approves the mechanism that will assess members’ production capacity.
- Firm Fed dovish expectations strengthen the Oil demand outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX trade 1.7% higher around $59.30 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Oil price attracts significant bids at open as the OPEC+ agrees to halt the Oil output increase from the first quarter of 2026.
This year, the Oil price has remained under pressure as members of the OPEC+ increased the output by 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) into the market since April 2025. The announcement of a pause in the oil supply hike has come at a time when the United States (US) has been making efforts to bring peace to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The US could unwind sanctions on Russia if it agrees to make peace with Ukraine. Such a scenario will prompt the global Oil supply.
Additionally, the OPEC+ has approved a mechanism that will assess members’ maximum production capacity to be used for setting output baselines from 2027, against which members’ output targets are set, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, firm hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its monetary policy meeting this month are also supporting the Oil price. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for the Oil demand outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in December is 87.4%.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Silver price jumps to an all-time high around $57.60 in Monday’s Asian session.
- The white metal keeps the bullish view, but the overbought RSI condition might cap its upside.
- The initial support level is located near the Bollinger middle band of $51.29.
Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to a fresh record high near $57.60 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Silver has surged following the report about an outage on the Comex due to what the exchange operator CME calls a “cooling system failure.”
Furthermore, the prospect of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in the December policy meeting could underpin the white metal in the near term. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.49. Price extends well above the 100-day EMA at $45.60, underscoring a firmly bullish trend. The average slopes higher, reinforcing the uptrend and offering a cushion on setbacks. RSI at 73.47 is overbought, signaling stretched momentum that could precede consolidation. Initial pullback support stands at the Bollinger middle band near $51.29.
Price sits above the upper Bollinger Band at $56.37, indicating strong bullish pressure and a stretched advance. The bands have widened, reflecting rising volatility and momentum. A daily close back below the upper band would open room toward the mid-band, while deeper losses could target the 100-day EMA at $45.60. Despite the strong trend, overbought signals suggest any upside extension could be tempered by a period of digestion before the next leg higher.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- NZD/USD preserves last week’s strong gains as a weaker USD offsets disappointing Chinese data.
- China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.6 to 49.9 in November vs the forecast for a 50.5.
- The divergent RBNZ-Fed policy expectations turn out to be another factor supporting spot prices.
The NZD/USD pair is seen oscillating in a narrow range at the start of a new week and consolidating its recent strong gains to a nearly one-month peak, touched on Friday. Spot prices hold steady below mid-0.5700s and react little to the disappointing Chinese data.
In fact, China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly returned to contraction, falling to 49.9 in November from 50.6 in October. This comes on top of the official PMIs released over the weekend, which showed that the business activity in China's manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth month, while the gauge for the services sector shrank for the first time in nearly three years and fell to its lowest level since December 2022.
The immediate market reaction, however, turns out to be muted amid easing trade tensions and the recent government measures announced to boost consumption in the world's second-largest economy. This, along with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish outlook on the future policy path, continues to act as a tailwind for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Apart from this, the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias offers some support to the NZD/USD pair.
The RBNZ delivered a fully priced 25 basis points (bps) rate cut last week and signaled an end to its easing cycle. In contrast, traders are now pricing in an over 85% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again this month. This, along with the underlying bullish tone, contributes to the safe-haven Greenback's relative underperformance against the perceived riskier Kiwi and backs the case for a further appreciation for the NZD/USD pair.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- GBP/USD trades flat around 1.3245 in Monday’s Asian session.
- UK budget relief could support the Pound Sterling.
- Fed cut odds rise to 87% on dovish Fed remarks and uncertainty.
The GBP/USD pair holds steady near 1.3245 during the Asian session on Monday as traders continue to digest the UK’s Autumn Budget. The potential downside for the major pair might be limited due to the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in the December meeting. The US November ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report is due later on Monday.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves revealed the UK's Autumn Budget last week, which includes tax hikes and changes to business rates, benefits, and pensions.The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised its 2025 growth forecast for the UK upward, from 1.0% to 1.5% following the budget announcement. Nonetheless, OBR lowered its growth estimates to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in all of the following four years. The 2025 UK Autumn Budget could lead to a modest relief rally for the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
Traders increase their bets of a Fed rate reduction amid the uncertainty and dovish comments from Fed officials, which drag the Greenback lower and act as a headwind for the pair. US Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 87% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) December policy meeting, compared to a 71% odds a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that available data indicate that the labor market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut at the December meeting. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that she supports lowering the interest rate next month because she saw a sudden deterioration in the job market, as both are more likely and harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly returned to contraction, falling to 49.9 in November from 50.6 in October, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Monday.
The market forecast was for a 50.5 reading.
AUD/USD reaction to China’s PMI data
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.05% higher on the day, keeping its range near 0.6550.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- EUR/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note amid the prevalent USD selling.
- Bets for another Fed rate cut move in December continue to undermine the buck.
- Relatively hawkish ECB expectations benefit the EUR and also support spot prices.
The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction at the start of a new week and climbs back above the 1.1600 round figure during the Asian session. Bulls now await a move beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets and positioning for an extension of a one-week-old uptrend amid the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a two-week low on the back of dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, traders ramped up their bets that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again in December in the wake of the recent comments from several Fed officials. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment around the financial markets, is seen undermining the safe-haven buck and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw support from the growing acceptance that the European Central Bank (ECB) is done cutting interest rates. In fact, the latest ECB meeting minutes released on Friday showed unanimous backing for leaving all three key policy rates unchanged in October. Moreover, the Governing Council described the policy stance as being in a good place. Traders have now almost fully priced out any additional rate cut in 2025and see around a 40% chance of a move by the end of 2026.
This, in turn, lends additional support to the EUR/USD pair and backs the case for a further appreciating move in the near term. A sustained break through the very important 200-day SMA will reaffirm the constructive outlook and pave the way for further gains. Traders now look forward to this week's important US macro data, scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. In the meantime, the final Eurozone PMIs might provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.82% | -1.05% | -0.61% | -0.92% | -1.42% | -2.16% | -0.71% | |
| EUR | 0.82% | -0.24% | 0.27% | -0.11% | -0.62% | -1.36% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 1.05% | 0.24% | 0.47% | 0.14% | -0.39% | -1.12% | 0.35% | |
| JPY | 0.61% | -0.27% | -0.47% | -0.35% | -0.94% | -1.76% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.92% | 0.11% | -0.14% | 0.35% | -0.51% | -1.25% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | 1.42% | 0.62% | 0.39% | 0.94% | 0.51% | -0.74% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | 2.16% | 1.36% | 1.12% | 1.76% | 1.25% | 0.74% | 1.49% | |
| CHF | 0.71% | -0.11% | -0.35% | 0.16% | -0.21% | -0.75% | -1.49% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the Japanese central bank remains on track to raise interest rates further if prices and the economy continue to unfold as expected.
Key quotes
Overseas economies have shown some weakness but are still gradually increasing as a whole.
Global growth is likely to slow temporarily under the weight of trade measures.
The likelihood of the BoJ’s baseline scenario for growth and inflation being realised is gradually increasing.
Private consumption resilient but households feeling pain from higher prices, so must watch moves closely.
US tariffs are weighing on manufacturers' profits but don't see impact on capex broadening significantly.
Whether mechanism in which wages and prices rise in tandem will be sustained is key in conducting monetary policy.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.33% on the day at 155.65.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0759 compared to the Friday's fix of 7.0789 and 7.0709 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
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