Forex News
- The Indian Rupee falls against the US Dollar to near 94.87 after a huge upside move on Wednesday.
- Iran calls the US one-page MoU a “wish list”, which restricts Tehran from uranium enrichment.
- FIIs remain in the sellers’ mode despite US-Iran truce optimism.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a weak note against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, failing to capitalize on Wednesday’s strong upside move. The USD/INR pair rises 0.35% to near 94.87 amid the absence of a positive response from Iran toward the one-page memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the war with the United States (US).
Iran still reviews US one-page MoU
While there are positive comments from the US and Pakistan that Washington and Tehran are close to reaching a deal, Iran has stated that it is still reviewing the US proposal, according to BBC.
In the latest update, a senior member of Iran's parliament has dismissed the US proposal, calling it a "wish list", according to BBC.
The confirmation of the one-page MoU, which is a 14-point proposal, by both sides would lead to an immediate ceasefire and establish a 30-day negotiation window. The peace proposal includes Iran’s pause on uranium enrichment, releasing Iranian frozen assets, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the lack of follow-up selling in oil prices after a vertical decline on Wednesday is also keeping the Indian Rupee under pressure. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is slightly down to near $92.80. On Wednesday, the WTI Oil price plummeted over 13% to $86.90, but recovered some of its losses and closed above $93.00.
FIIs remain in dump mode
Despite the dominance of risk flows in global markets amid optimism over the US-Iran peace deal, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market. So far in May, FIIs have remained net sellers in two of the three trading days and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 6,620.86 crore.
Increased concerns over India’s growth and inflation outlook amid expectations that energy prices will remain higher for a prolonged period, even if the US and Iran reach a peace plan today, are hurting the sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian stock market.
US NFP comes under spotlight
While the Indian Rupee is struggling to attract meaningful bids amid the risk-on sentiment, the appeal of the US Dollar has diminished. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is flat around 98.00; but is close to its over two-month low of 97.62 posted on Wednesday.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be released on Friday, to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The employment report is expected to show that the economy created 60K fresh jobs.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades higher at around 94.87 in the opening session on Thursday. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.2288. The pair is consolidating near recent highs while staying comfortably supported by this dynamic floor, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, which hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the 20-day EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 94.23; a decisive break below this level would expose a deeper corrective move toward 93.00. Looking up, the pair could enter uncharted territory if it manages to break above the all-time high of 95.53 posted on Tuesday. Initial resistance would be 96.00, followed by 96.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- Gold holds steady near a more than one-week top as a combination of factors undermines the USD.
- Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading Fed rate hike bets keep the USD bulls on the back foot.
- The lack of follow-through buying, however, warrants caution before positioning for further upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a two-day recovery from the $4,500 mark, or over a one-month low, and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Thursday. The commodity trades flat around the $4,700 mark as bulls now seem hesitant and opt to wait for further clarity over a potential US-Iran peace deal before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the downside remains cushioned amid fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets and a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), which tends to benefit the bullion.
US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and that an agreement with Iran was very possible. Adding to this, the news outlet Axios reported that the US and Iran are very close to finalizing a deal. However, Iran's state-linked media pushed back against claims of a broader agreement and said, citing information from the Iranian Students' News Agency, that the US proposal includes provisions that Tehran has already rejected in recent days.
Adding to this, the BBC reported that Iran is reviewing a one-page memorandum of understanding with the US that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Furthermore, Trump threatened that Iran would be bombed “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before” if it didn’t agree to a peace deal. Moreover, investors reassess the likelihood of a deal amid major disagreements over Iran's nuclear program. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the Gold.
On the economic data front, the US ADP report showed on Wednesday that private-sector employment grew by 109K in April, compared to a downwardly revised reading of 61K in the previous month. This better-than-expected print indicates continued, though uneven, strength in the US labor market. Moreover, the CME Group's CME FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are still pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. This helps limit further USD losses and contributes to capping gains for the non-yielding Gold.
Traders now look to the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse some volatility across the global financial markets and help traders to determine the next leg of a directional move for the Gold price.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Gold consolidates before the next leg up amid a bullish technical setup
Wednesday's breakout through the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a subsequent strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from the April swing high were seen as key triggers for the XAU/USD bulls. The precious metal is also holding above the 50% retracement level, reinforcing the constructive bias.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 keeps the tone positive but shy of overbought territory, indicating room for another push higher while leaving the metal vulnerable to a corrective pullback if buyers lose traction. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line with a negative reading, hinting that upside momentum is not yet fully convincing.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,741.58, followed by a higher barrier at the 78.6% level near $4,807.61, with the recent cycle high around $4,891.72 capping the broader bullish scenario. On the downside, initial support is located at the 50% retracement at $4,695.20, ahead of a more substantial demand band around the 38.2% level at $4,648.82 and the 200-EMA at $4,634.46; a sustained break below this area would expose the 23.6% retracement at $4,591.44 and, if selling accelerates, the swing low near $4,498.68.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.36% | -0.47% | -1.06% | -0.17% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.01% | -0.22% | 0.37% | -0.38% | -1.03% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.01% | -0.01% | -0.21% | 0.36% | -0.38% | -1.03% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.62% | -0.21% | -0.76% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.36% | -0.37% | -0.36% | -0.62% | -0.79% | -1.36% | -0.51% | |
| AUD | 0.47% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.21% | 0.79% | -0.64% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | 1.06% | 1.03% | 1.03% | 0.76% | 1.36% | 0.64% | 0.91% | |
| CHF | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.51% | -0.27% | -0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- US Dollar Index weakens as optimism over a potential US-Iran deal reduces safe-haven demand.
- Lower oil prices ease inflation concerns and reduce expectations for a prolonged hawkish Fed stance.
- Fed’s Goolsbee warned that inflation has accelerated since the conflict, moving further from the Fed’s 2% target.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining steady after posting nearly 0.5% losses in the previous day and trading around 98.00 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
The Greenback struggles amid easing safe-haven demand on optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement, which triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing inflation concerns, and reducing expectations for a prolonged hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook.
However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that inflation has not continued to moderate toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and has instead accelerated since the conflict began.
The BBC reported on Wednesday that Iran said a US proposal to end the conflict is “still being considered,” despite reports suggesting both sides may be nearing an agreement. According to reports, the US submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the American blockade on Iranian ports. Discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program would follow later, though no final agreement has been reached.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that US President Donald Trump warned Iran would face bombing “at a much higher level” if it refuses to agree to a peace deal. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the US military campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Asian stocks rise sharply on Thursday.
- Hopes that the US and Iran will conclude the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz improve risk sentiments.
- The Nikkei 225 is the best performer for the day, rising over 5.70% to a record high.
Most Asian equities trade in positive territory on Thursday amid optimism over a possible deal to end the war between the United States (US) and Iran.
An Iranian official said on Wednesday that it was reviewing a US peace proposal that sources said would formally end the war while leaving unresolved the critical US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is expected to hand over its reply on Thursday to mediators about the US proposal to end the war.
Earlier on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated that the US has had “very good talks” with Iran over the past 24 hours.
“We remain on the path towards de-escalation, and towards an end to the conflict,” said Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone in London. “While that path is clearly a rough one, so long as we remain on it, and the direction of travel remains a more optimistic one, then risk appetite should remain underpinned.”
The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark, surged over 5.70% to a fresh record high of around 62,915 earlier on Thursday and currently trades near 62,825. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains in focus after rallying on Wednesday amid suspected speculation that officials are intervening in the market.
Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, stated on Thursday that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. Mimura also declined to comment on FX intervention and specific currency levels.
China and Hong Kong stock markets gain momentum on Thursday, with the SHANGHAI, China’s main stock market index, increasing by 0.25% to 4,170. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange jumps by 1.55% to 26,625.
Meanwhile, the South Korean stock, the benchmark KOSPI, rises by 0.22% to 7,405. The index extends the rally after hitting a series of record highs on gains in chipmakers.
India’s Nifty50 was down 0.02% to trade at 24,325 on Thursday. In Taiwan, the Taiex climbs by 2.00% to 41,970. Other markets in Southeast Asia trade higher.
Asian stocks FAQs
Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices.
Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce.
Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities.
Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
- AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the third straight day amid a weaker USD.
- Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading Fed rate hike bets undermine the buck.
- The RBA’s hawkish outlook counters mixed trade data and supports the Aussie.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls the previous day's late pullback from the 0.7275-0.7280 region, or its highest level since June 2022. Spot prices currently trade around mid-0.7200s, up for the third straight day.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish outlook counters Australia's mixed trade data for March and continues to act as a tailwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Furthermore, the optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, along with receding bets for a rater hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and further lends support to the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair holds a constructive bullish bias as it trades clearly above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which keeps the recent advance underpinned. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 64 points to firm upside momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram holds slightly in positive territory, which suggests buyers retain near-term control.
Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 100-period EMA on H4, at 0.7158, which protects the latest higher low zone and would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. On the flip side, a further move beyond the June 2022 swing high, just ahead of the 0.7300 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and could see the AUD/USD pair probe further move higher, as long as it continues to hold above the 0.7158 support area, or the 100-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.00% | -0.23% | 0.34% | -0.47% | -1.06% | -0.17% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.22% | 0.37% | -0.38% | -1.02% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.23% | 0.36% | -0.40% | -1.04% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.63% | -0.18% | -0.74% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.34% | -0.37% | -0.36% | -0.63% | -0.77% | -1.36% | -0.49% | |
| AUD | 0.47% | 0.38% | 0.40% | 0.18% | 0.77% | -0.64% | 0.26% | |
| NZD | 1.06% | 1.02% | 1.04% | 0.74% | 1.36% | 0.64% | 0.91% | |
| CHF | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.49% | -0.26% | -0.91% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,345.64 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 14,336.29 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 167,324.70 per tola from INR 167,215.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,345.64 |
10 Grams | 143,456.40 |
Tola | 167,324.70 |
Troy Ounce | 446,200.50 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- WTI struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from over a two-week low.
- Traders seem hesitant and opt to wait for more clarity about the US-Iran peace deal.
- The USD remains on the defensive and further helps limit losses for the commodity.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's modest bounce from sub-$87.00 levels, or over a two-week low. The black liquid currently trades just above mid-$92.00s, down nearly 0.65% for the day, amid mixed cues.
Investors turned optimistic over a potential agreement to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump said that a deal with Iran was very possible. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining Crude Oil prices, though the downside remains cushioned as investors reassess the likelihood of a peace deal. Adding to this, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), which tends to benefit the USD-denominated commodity, contributes to limiting losses for the black liquid.
Iran's state-linked media pushed back against claims of a broader agreement, while the Iranian Students' News Agency said that the US proposal includes provisions that Tehran has already rejected in recent days. Furthermore, the BBC reported that Iran is still reviewing the US proposal to end the conflict and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, Trump threatened that Iran will be bombed “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal.
Meanwhile, the initial market reaction to the upbeat US ADP report on private-sector employment turns out to be short-lived amid diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Fading hawkish expectations, in turn, fail to assist the USD to build on the overnight bounce from a nearly three-week low, which holds back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on Crude Oil prices. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- AUD/JPY trades in positive territory around 113.30 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps the broader uptrend intact above the key 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.
- The immediate resistance level is located at 113.60; the first support level is seen at 112.40.
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength near 113.30 during the early European session on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on improved risk sentiment following reports that the United States (US) and Iran are close to a deal to end the war.
An Iranian official said on Wednesday that it was reviewing a US peace proposal that sources said would formally end the war while leaving unresolved the critical US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. CNN reported that Iran is expected to hand over its reply on Thursday to mediators about the US proposal to end the war.
However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited due to intervention fears. Market volatility has been high following suspected interventions by Japanese authorities to strengthen the JPY. Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura stated on Thursday that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. Mimura also declined to comment on FX intervention and specific currency levels.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as it sits above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 53 suggests moderate, non-stretched momentum, hinting that bulls still retain control but lack a strong overbought impulse for an immediate breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger 20-day middle band near 113.60. The next upside barrier emerges at the May 6 high of 114.32, with the upper band coming in higher at 114.82 as the next hurdle if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, first support is seen at the lower Bollinger band at 112.40, ahead of the April 30 low of 111.33. The key contention level is seen at the 100-day EMA of 109.60, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest while the broader bullish structure persists.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- GBP/USD may face initial resistance at the 11-week high of 1.3758.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 60 suggests solid bullish momentum.
- The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3556.
GBP/USD remains stronger for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an improving bullish trend as the pair rebounds from the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
GBP/USD keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds just above the 1.3600 horizontal pivot. The pair also trades over the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-period EMA, suggesting the broader uptrend remains supported.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 60 points to firm but not overextended bullish momentum.
The GBP/USD pair may find the primary barrier at the 11-week high of 1.3758, reached on May 1. Further advances would support the pair to explore the region around 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27, followed by the upper boundary of 1.4040.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find its immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3556, followed by the lower boundary of the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3540. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.3467.
A successful break below the medium-term average would expose the five-month low of 1.3159, recorded on March 31, followed by the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.07% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.08% | -0.12% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.09% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/JPY trades calmly amid hopes that Japan could intervene again.
- Japan’s Mimura said that he will closely monitor the forex markets.
- The risk-on impulse has improved the Euro’s appeal.
The EUR/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 183.75 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair struggles for a direction as investors remain on the sidelines amid hopes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) could intervene again.
Japan’s Vice Finance Minister (FM) for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier in the day, that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. However, Mimura declined to comment on specific levels where an intervention could take place.
While there has been no official confirmation from Japan that it has intervened in markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the last few trading days, there have been strong upside moves in the Asia-Pacific currency on April 30 and May 6.
Although they’ve not commented officially, I think we have to assume that the MoF stepped in again," analysts at Pepperstone said, adding, "You don’t get a huge move like that, with no obvious catalyst, unless there’s a ‘silent hand’ involved, Reuters report.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm as the risk-on impulse remains boosted amid firm hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Axios report has shown that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.
Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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