Forex News
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Chinese authorities have raised overseas loan leverage ratios and macroprudential parameters to facilitate outbound and cross-border financing. These measures aim to support investment and stabilize funding conditions, with modest CNY strength and lower China Government Bond yields. The policy stance underscores Beijing’s focus on credit channels rather than headline rate cuts.
China boosts banks’ external lending capacity
"The People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have issued a notice adjusting overseas lending policies for banking institutions."
"The overseas loan leverage ratio for domestic foreign-owned banks, joint ventures and foreign bank branches in mainland China, including those from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, was raised from 0.5 to 1.5."
"The Export-Import Bank’s ratio increased from 3 to 3.5."
"Note that in 2025, China raised its macroprudential adjustment parameter, a multiplier that decides the upper limit of outstanding cross-border financing available to an institution, from 1.5 to 1.75 to facilitate cross-border financing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold tumbles on hopes for US-Iran progress as reduced demand weighs on the precious metal.
- Firmer Treasury yields and resilient equities added pressure on Gold prices.
- Traders still watch Hormuz risks and sticky inflation for fresh direction.
Gold price retreats during the session, down nearly 1%, as risk appetite improves and flows rotate toward US equities, pushing the S&P 500 index past the 7,000 figure, poised to test the all-time high at around 7.014. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades below $4,800 after reaching a peak of $4,871.
Bullion eases as equity gains and firmer yields sap safe-haven demand
Speculation that talks between the US and Iran could end the conflict is growing after US President Donald Trump commented that the war was close to over, adding, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” to an ABC News reporter. Consequently, the safe-haven appeal of Gold, along with money returning to stocks, weighed on the yellow metal despite the overall weakness of the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of six currencies against the US Dollar, is down 0.06% to 98.05, slightly above the six-week low of 97.96. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury note is up three basis points to 4.275%, underpinned by expectations of no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, a headwind for Bullion prices.
Despite the positive news, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps tensions high. Reuters reported that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail through the Omani side of the Strait without interference or attack as part of a deal with the US.
Data-wise, Tuesday’s inflation report showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in March jumped to 4%, but remained shy of the expected 4.6%, largely due to a 15.7% increase in gasoline prices, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The hot US PPI read is further cementing the case for no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Money markets are pricing in just eight basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT).
Federal Reserve interest rate probabilities
Lower interest rate environments benefit Gold prices. A de-escalation of the conflict could ease inflationary pressure. Still, US inflation remains stubbornly sticky at around 3%, and most Fed officials have said the current policy is “appropriate” amid the uncertain environment.
Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed said interest rates are expected to remain unchanged “for a good while.” She does not anticipate any immediate need for the Fed to adjust its current rate policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that high Oil prices are likely to keep underlying inflation nearly a percentage point above the Feds 2% target for 2026. He acknowledged that “It’s likely we’re going to see some pass-through of Oil prices onto core inflation.”
All in all, if the Fed keeps rates steady, XAU/USD could be poised for another leg-down. Eyes are on Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday and additional speeches by Fed officials.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold retreats, struggles to remain above $4,800
Gold’s uptrend remains intact, but after reaching a high near $4,871 and failing to clear the next key resistance level at $4,899, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) drove prices lower.
Price action remains constructive after hitting a four-week high earlier in the session. However, if XAU/USD closes the day below $4,800, a fall toward the April 14 daily log at $4.742 is on the cards.
Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though it is fragile given its proximity to the index-neutral level.
For a bullish continuation, a clear break above $4,850 is needed. Key resistance levels lie at the 50-day SMA at $4,899 and at $4,950, ahead of $5,000.
Conversely, the first key support is $4,750 ahead of the April 14 daily low before testing $4,700. A breach of the latter exposes the confluence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs near $4,684 and $4,640.
- A doji candle near the 50-day SMA signals growing market indecision.
- Flat RSI suggests bullish momentum has stalled despite the broader uptrend.
- A break below $79.00 could expose trendline support near $75.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) price halted its advance on Wednesday as a doji candle emerged near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $79.09, a sign of indecision among traders, whether to push prices towards the next cycle high at $90.01 —the March 10 high—, or challenge the 100-day SMA key support at $76.67. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $79.38, down 0.12%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The technical picture shows that XAG/USD is trending steadily upwards, but a doji candle pattern is opening the door to a pullback. Bullish momentum stalled, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains above its neutral level, but it has turned flat.
For a bullish resumption, Silver must clear the day’s high at $81.00 a troy ounce. Once achieved, the next resistance level will be the March 17 daily high at $82.55, followed by the March 10 peak at $90.01.
Conversely, if XAG/USD ends the day’s session below $79.00, this clears the path to challenge a key support trendline at around the $75.00-$75.20 range, drawn from the year low of $61.02.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao, Moriarty Lam and Shuang Ding highlight that China has become the world’s largest exporter of AI‑related goods, with exports spanning raw materials to hardware and applications. They note that China’s low‑cost energy, scalable computing infrastructure and strong manufacturing support this position, but emphasize ongoing reliance on high‑end chip imports and geopolitical risks to future AI trade development.
AI exports strong, chip reliance persists
"Global AI‑related trade has expanded rapidly and is increasingly a structural driver of cross-border goods flows."
"China is now the largest exporter of AI‑related goods, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO)."
"China’s AI‑related trade is not limited to ICs, however, and spans the value chain broadly – from raw materials to hardware manufacturing, AI technology development and application deployment."
"China’s strength in AI trade is asymmetric."
"Looking ahead, China’s low‑cost energy supply, scalable computing infrastructure and strong manufacturing capabilities should continue to underpin its comparative advantages in AI‑related trade."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday that the Oil shock caused by the Middle East war is likely feeding core inflation, and he expects it to be near 3% throughout the year.
Key takeaways:
Oil shock likely feeding core inflation, expect it will be near 3% through end of year.
Supply shocks put Fed's inflation and employment goals at risk, current interest rate range likely appropriate 'for some time'.
Musalem says he has lowered his GDP estimates for the year to between 1.5% and 2% from 2% to 2.5% before the war.
Easing tariff impact will help lower inflation, housing inflation also moving in the right direction.
Musalem says he does not see clear impacts yet from war on consumption.
Unemployment rate could rise as economic growth slows, though perhaps only by a couple tenths of a percentage point.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.11% | -0.28% | -0.75% | -0.21% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.17% | -0.23% | -0.62% | -0.16% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.17% | -0.22% | -0.62% | -0.19% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.39% | -0.79% | -0.36% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.28% | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.39% | -0.39% | 0.04% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.75% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.79% | 0.39% | 0.43% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.36% | -0.04% | -0.43% | 0.35% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.13% | 0.03% | -0.37% | -0.76% | -0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chua Han Teng argue that recent commodity price shocks will inevitably lift inflation in Singapore, but highlight the role of the Singapore Dollar and policy buffers. They expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to allow further appreciation of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) to contain imported inflation, complementing targeted fiscal measures and ample reserves that support economic resilience.
MAS seen tightening SGD NEER stance
"Such shocks permeate through Singapore’s economy readily. Gasoline prices may get adjusted immediately, electricity and electronics prices may rise with some lag, but it is just a matter of when, not if; higher inflation in the near term appears to be unavoidable."
"Beyond targeted fiscal policy, Singapore’s unique exchange rate-based monetary policy will also likely play a crucial role in containing imported inflation and anchoring inflation expectations. We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to undertake a policy-induced appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate."
"Given such considerations, we find Singapore’s measured public sector response to the ongoing crisis to be in line with best practice. Preventing price signals to permeate through the economy by means of across-the-board subsidy and price controls is not advisable, as they prevent necessary economic adjustments and distort incentives."
"Instead, the authorities have highlighted that the nation has ample reserves to ensure unimpeded supply of energy domestically and sufficient financial buffers to procure what’s needed externally. Concurrently, they have cautioned about higher prices in the pipeline."
"Informing the public about the risks to the outlook, from higher inflation to lower growth, while assuring them about the wherewithal to deal with likely contingencies strike a balance between caution and resolve. Global shocks inevitably hit Singapore; there is not much one can do about that."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, April 16:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggled to build on recent gains, trading near 98.10 on Tuesday in a tight range as mixed US data and conflicting signals from yields capped momentum. While safe-haven demand initially supported the US Dollar (USD), the move faded as US yields stabilized and investors showed reluctance to extend long USD positions without fresh catalysts.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.16% | -0.29% | -0.72% | -0.22% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.21% | -0.27% | -0.63% | -0.20% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.22% | -0.23% | -0.61% | -0.19% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.44% | -0.81% | -0.41% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.23% | 0.44% | -0.36% | 0.06% | 0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.72% | 0.63% | 0.61% | 0.81% | 0.36% | 0.42% | 0.75% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.41% | -0.06% | -0.42% | 0.32% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.13% | 0.08% | -0.37% | -0.75% | -0.32% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades in a neutral range near the 1.1800 area, benefiting from the USD’s lack of follow-through. The pair remains supported by stable Eurozone expectations, although upside is limited as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious tone amid inflation concerns.
GBP/USD holds steady around the 1.3570 price region, with the Pound finding some footing despite ongoing concerns about UK growth and inflation persistence. Bank of England (BoE) expectations remain finely balanced, preventing sharp moves in either direction.
USD/JPY trades in the green with a softer tone above the 159.00 mark as the Japanese Yen (JPY) draws intermittent support from safe-haven flows.
AUD/USD surges above the 0.7170 level as traders look ahead to Australia’s March employment report due Thursday. Expectations point to a 20K increase in jobs and a steady 4.3% Unemployment Rate.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remains volatile, recovering almost all its intraday losses now trading near the $91.20 per barrel, as concerns over supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Gold trades around the $4,795 after dropping below the $4,870 level, supported by geopolitical uncertainty but capped by stable yields.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, April 16:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Employment Change March
- AU Unemployment Rate March
- CN GDP Q1
- CN Industrial Production March
- CN Retail Sales March
- UK GDP February
- UK Industrial Production February
- UK Manufacturing Production February
- Italian CPIs March
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
- US Industrial Production March
Friday, April 17:
- US IMF Meeting
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY holds firm near 159.00, snapping a two-day losing streak despite broad USD weakness.
- Optimism around potential US-Iran talks is improving risk sentiment, reducing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
- Intervention fears near 160.00 cap upside, while elevated Oil prices continue to pressure the Japanese Yen.
USD/JPY holds firm on Wednesday despite a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). The pair remains confined within a one-month trading range, as elevated Oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, intervention risk near the 160.00 handle is keeping a lid on further upside.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 159.10, up nearly 0.20% on the day, snapping a two-day losing streak.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Wednesday, “We will take bold actions on FX as needed,” after meeting US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Japanese Yen strengthened briefly following the remarks but quickly gave back gains, as geopolitical developments continue to dominate market sentiment.
On the geopolitical front, investors remain cautiously optimistic that tensions between the United States and Iran could de-escalate, with both sides signaling a willingness to resume talks. Reports suggest a possible second round of negotiations could take place later this week, supporting risk sentiment. This has weighed on the US Dollar and pushed Oil prices lower from recent highs.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering near 98.10, close to a six-week low touched on Tuesday.
Still, risks remain skewed to the upside, with the Pentagon reportedly considering deploying additional troops to the region to increase pressure on Iran.
At the same time, ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are limiting a deeper pullback in Crude prices, keeping inflation concerns in focus. While the recent dip in Oil has eased pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), it has also revived expectations that the US central bank could still consider rate cuts later this year.
In contrast, elevated Oil prices continue to complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. While they may keep the BoJ on a gradual tightening path, higher energy costs could weigh on Japan’s growth outlook, potentially slowing the pace of policy normalization.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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