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Forex News

News source: FXStreet
Aug 31, 14:24 HKT
British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopes
  • GBP/USD remains capped below 1.3550, just above two-week highs on Monday.
  • Fresh hostilities in Iran are wighing on risk appetite and supporting the safe-haven US Dollar.
  • Fed's Warsh boosted bets of an upcoming rate hike on his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The British Pound (GBP) edges up on Monday but remains close to two-week lows against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might finally hike rates in September are keeping the Greenback's dips subdued at the start of the week.

Investors' appetite for risk remains frail on Monday, following reports that the US launched the first attack on Iran in about a month, targeting missile launchers on Larak Island, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing rockets to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran responded by attacking US military sites in Jordan, according to reports by Fox News citing a US source, and the IRGC vowed “response and punishment” to the US.

Fed Warsh hints at rate hikes

The US Dollar ended last week on strong footing, boosted by comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Summit, hinting at upcoming monetary tightening moves if inflationary pressures remain at high levels.

FX strategists at OCBC note that “debasement concerns faded following Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, with the USD strengthening, gold falling and the US yield curve flattening.” Warsh “stressed that inflation remains too high and remains the Fed's primary concern.” This has reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to achieving its “2% PCE inflation target,” say the analysts in a note.

Against this backdrop, OCBC suggests that “USD dips may also prove more restrained for now, with USD bears likely needing softer US data to rebuild conviction.” They add that “focus turns to incoming US labour and inflation data ahead of the Sept FOMC,” as markets reassess the near-term policy path in light of Warsh’s remarks and the evolving data pulse.

The UK calendar is thin on Monday, and markets will be attentive to the G20 finance ministers' meeting in North Carolina, starting on Monday and, where US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will strive to convince the world's major economies, namely China, to sever its links to Iran, while trying to calm growing concerns about the ballooning US government debt and rising bond yields.

Risk sentiment FAQs

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Aug 31, 14:19 HKT
Euro: Warsh speech weighs on EUR against US Dollar – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite the repricing in US rates.

Hawkish Fed rhetoric pressures Euro

"In the US, Fed Chairman Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his speech at Jackson Hole, reaffirming that the 2% PCE target is "firm" and "fixed" and signalling that more work remains if inflation does not move towards target with sufficient speed."

"This represents a step away from his July press conference tone, where Warsh had emphasised markets' role in determining the direction of rates. The remarks sent EUR/USD lower. Overall, Warsh's message was consistent with a central banker open to hiking at the next meeting, with September now priced as nearly a coin-flip."

"Also on the wires, Fed's Hammack, who voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, struck a hawkish tone, calling for immediate action on rate hikes and warning that waiting risks creating further pain. She expects inflation to end the year around 3%, well above the 2% target, and does not view current financial conditions as restrictive."

"Focus turns to the German flash inflation figures for August, ahead of the euro area release tomorrow. Headline HICP inflation is expected to increase to 3.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%), driven by energy prices. Attention will centre on momentum in underlying inflation, which remained unaffected by the energy shock in the figures from Spain and France last week."

"This week we have another crucial event for the US market with the labour market report for August, which is released on Friday. On top of this we have inflation data from the eurozone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Aug 31, 14:03 HKT
Euro falls against Japanese Yen ahead of German inflation data
  • The Euro trades lower against the Japanese Yen to near 185.20 ahead of the German HICP data for August.
  • German HICP is seen higher at 3% YoY from 2.8% in July.
  • The BoJ is highly anticipated to raise interest rates in September.

The Euro (EUR) is down 0.1% to near 185.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Monday. The cross faces pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its peers amid fears that the Bak of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Market leans toward September BoJ hike

Commerzbank notes that market expectations have moved decisively in favour of near-term tightening by the BoJ, with “the implied probability of an interest rate hike in September” having “recently risen again and now” standing “at around 84%.” However, the bank stresses that “only the Bank of Japan has yet to make any clear statements regarding the timing of its next move,” adding that Deputy Governor Himino “preferred in his speech yesterday not to get specific just yet,” underscoring the persistent gap between market pricing and official communication.

Meanwhile, the Euro trades with caution ahead of the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August, which will be published at 12:00 GMT.

Preliminary German HICP data is expected to arrive higher at 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.8% in July. Signs of German inflationary pressures accelerating could prompt expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike next month.

Financial experts seem confident that the ECB will raise interest rates in the September meeting.

Analysts at Danske Bank note that “the market is now nearly fully priced for a 25bp rate hike at the September meeting,” reflecting still-elevated inflation expectations despite the recent improvement in Euro area sentiment. However, they argue that the latest data — including energy-driven headline gains in French and Spanish HICP alongside muted core momentum and softer French GDP — are “marginally dovish versus market pricing.” In this context, Danske Bank highlights that “the decline in firms' selling price expectations supports our view that the September meeting will be the final hike for now,” and they expect the ECB to deliver only one additional 25bp increase before pausing.

On Tuesday, investors will focus on the Eurozone HICP data for July.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Mon Aug 31, 2026 12:00 (Prel)

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 3%

Previous: 2.8%

Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

 

 

Aug 31, 13:56 HKT
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 1.1600, bullish vibe prevails above 100-day SMA
  • EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1590 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • Fed’s Warsh signalled that further tightening may be needed to curb price pressure.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1677; the initial support level is seen at 1.1570.  

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1590 during the early European trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited as traders ramped up bets on a rate hike after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. 

Fed Chairman said on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic symposium that the US central bank will "have work to do" if policymakers don't get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down to 2%.  His hawkish comments have fuelled expectations of a September rate hike, supporting the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). 

Traders brace for the preliminary reading of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from Germany, which will be published later on Monday. Any signs of hotter inflation in Germany could lift the shared currency in the near term. 

Dollar sentiment firms as Fed repricing follows Warsh’s hawkish tone

Strategists at Commerzbank highlight that “the main theme on Friday was the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations” in the wake of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They note that Warsh warned inflation is “not meaningfully slowing” and reaffirmed that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is “firm and fixed,” while stressing that policymakers have “work to do” if they cannot be confident that underlying inflation is returning toward the target.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation fight, keeps Dollar bulls alert

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring heightened concern about price stability despite solid growth and stable labor markets. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective or “we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of policy restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance even as headline inflation data have improved but underlying trends are judged largely unchanged. Warsh’s emphasis that the Fed’s 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed” and that the predominant focus should be on prices reinforces a message that the inflation battle is not yet convincingly won, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar on dips.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 129.70, signaling that the aggregate policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the July decision to wait. The combination of a high index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests that markets will continue to price a vigilant Fed stance, with the Dollar likely to stay underpinned as long as inflation progress is viewed as incomplete.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is well-supported above the key 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term tone as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while pressing just under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, which acts as an immediate pivot. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits slightly above its neutral line, hinting that buyers retain a modest advantage without reaching overbought conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the August 26 high of 1.1677. A stronger barrier emerges at the upper Bollinger band around 1.1710, en route to the May 8 high of 1.1788. 

On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1570 offers first support, followed by the August 13 low of 1.1511. A more distant Bollinger lower band level is located near 1.1480, where a deeper pullback would likely encounter firmer buying interest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Aug 31, 12:40 HKT
Gold pares intraday losses to sub-$4,400 levels on softer USD; not out of the woods yet
  • Gold attracts some follow-through selling on Monday amid rising September Fed rate hike bets.
  • US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations.
  • The USD struggles to lure buyers, holding back XAU/USD bears from positioning for deeper losses.

Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from sub-$4,400 levels – a one-and-a-half-week low – touched during the Asian session on Monday, though the upside potential seems limited. A softer US Dollar (USD) offers some support to the precious metal and helps trim a part of its intraday losses. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on curbing inflationary pressures on Friday lifted bets for an interest rate hike, which might keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding bullion.

Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Warsh acknowledged that inflation is running hot and also hinted that interest rates could need to move higher if more progress isn’t made on easing price pressures. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 88% probability of a December increase, which lifted the USD to a two-week high on Friday and led to an over 3% fall in the Gold price.

The selling bias remains unabated at the start of a new week as escalating US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations. US forces struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first American strikes on the Islamic Republic since late July, prompting Iran to retaliate by launching ballistic missiles at two US bases in Jordan. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that new secondary sanctions were likely to be unveiled weekly in the effort to pressure Iran.

Despite the supportive fundamental backdrop, the safe-haven USD struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid soft US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh bearish bets on the Gold price and helps limit the downside. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery in the XAU/USD pair is likely to be sold into. Traders now look to key US macro releases, scheduled for the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis XAU/USD

Technical Analysis

Friday's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, for the first time since early August, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the commodity is now trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from late July lows, validating the near-term negative outlook. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply negative, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory near 25, hinting at persistent downside pressure even if a short-lived corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

Hence, a subsequent fall towards the next relevant support at the 50.0% retracement near $4,346.16, ahead of the 61.8% level at $4,263.27, looks like a distinct possibility. A break below the latter would expose deeper structural floors at $4,145.27 and $3,994.96. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,429.04, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,475.07 and the 23.6% Fibo. level near $4,531.59, while the cycle high at $4,697.36 marks a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.04% -0.05% -0.14% -0.06% 0.00% -0.06% 0.01%
EUR 0.04% -0.03% -0.09% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05%
GBP 0.05% 0.03% -0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10%
JPY 0.14% 0.09% 0.06% 0.08% 0.14% 0.11% 0.18%
CAD 0.06% 0.02% -0.01% -0.08% 0.07% 0.04% 0.09%
AUD -0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.14% -0.07% -0.02% 0.08%
NZD 0.06% -0.00% -0.01% -0.11% -0.04% 0.02% 0.08%
CHF -0.01% -0.05% -0.10% -0.18% -0.09% -0.08% -0.08%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Aug 31, 13:40 HKT
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Retreats from one-month top as bullish bias remains below 160.00
  • USD/JPY attracts some sellers on Monday, snapping a five-day winning streak to a one-month high.
  • The fundamental backdrop favors bulls and backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying.
  • A sustained move and acceptance above the 200-day SMA is needed to reinforce the positive bias.

The USD/JPY pair retreats from the 160.20 area, or a one-month high retested earlier this Monday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a five-day winning streak. Spot prices slide to the 159.80-159.75 region during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited.

A modest US Dollar (USD) downtick is seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair amid rising bets for faster interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs next month, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, might hold back USD bears from placing aggressive bets.

Furthermore, the wide US-Japan interest rate gap, along with concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal condition, should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, strong follow-through selling is needed to confirm that the recent recovery from the 155.25-155.20, or the monthly low, has run out of steam.

The USD/JPY pair retains a modest bullish bias above both the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the recent corrective decline from a four-decade high. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 59.

Momentum oscillators, in turn, hint that upside momentum is constructive but not yet stretched. The USD/JPY pair, however, likely remains capped by the 200-period SMA at 160.33. This is followed by a dense Fibonacci ceiling higher up – the 61.8% level at 16.62 and the 78.6% retracement at 162.09, which together outline the next bullish objectives if buyers extend the move.

On the downside, initial support appears at the 50.0% retracement at 159.58, with the 100-period SMA at 159.13 reinforcing the floor ahead of deeper Fibonacci cushions at 158.55 and 157.27. Only a drop toward the cycle low area near 155.20 would seriously undermine the current constructive outlook and pave the way for some meaningful downside for the USD/JPY pair.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.53% -0.56% 0.19% -0.84% -1.89% -0.61% 0.56%
EUR 0.53% -0.05% 0.70% -0.29% -1.37% -0.09% 1.09%
GBP 0.56% 0.05% 0.80% -0.23% -1.35% -0.03% 1.15%
JPY -0.19% -0.70% -0.80% -0.98% -2.21% -0.99% 0.32%
CAD 0.84% 0.29% 0.23% 0.98% -1.11% -0.24% 1.48%
AUD 1.89% 1.37% 1.35% 2.21% 1.11% 1.33% 2.54%
NZD 0.61% 0.09% 0.03% 0.99% 0.24% -1.33% 1.19%
CHF -0.56% -1.09% -1.15% -0.32% -1.48% -2.54% -1.19%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Aug 31, 13:26 HKT
Iran’s IRGC claims it shot down US drone, attacked UAE air base

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz using air defense missiles, causing it to crash into Gulf waters, Mehr news agency reported on Monday.

Additionally, the IRGC said on Monday that its aerospace forces carried out retaliatory drone and ballistic missile strikes against US targets at two air bases in Jordan earlier in the day, per Reuters.

IRGC said in a statement that the strikes were in response to the "U.S. and Israeli air aggression" against Iran's southern Larak Island in Hormozgan province on Sunday night.”

Iranian military emphasized that it will respond decisively to any further hostile military aggression, adding that the IRGC is also out saying that "all ships must comply with its rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz."

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on Monday that his country "does not seek war" but will respond to "aggressions," following the crossfire reported between Washington and Tehran on Sunday.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 2.22% on the day at $84.60.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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