Forex News

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $79.45 per troy ounce, down 1.67% from the $80.80 it cost on Friday.

Silver prices have increased by 11.77% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 60.32 on Monday, up from 59.78 on Friday.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

• The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar amid renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran permanent ceasefire.
• A sharp recovery in the Oil price has dragged the Indian Rupee.
• Iran refuses to resume negotiations with the US due to its excessive demands.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR jumps to near 93.00 as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have lifted the oil prices and offered support to the US Dollar (USD).

Hormuz closure boosts oil prices

WTI Oil prices trade over 3.5% higher to near $88.00 in the Asian trade on Monday. The Oil price strengthens as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, again, as retaliation for the continued US blockade of Iranian sea ports and Washington’s attack on one of Iran’s commercial ships.

On Friday, Iran announced a temporary reopening of the Hormuz after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has reiterated threats to obliterate every power plant and bridge in Iran, through a post on Truth Social, if the nation doesn’t take a deal soon.

US Dollar gains on renewed US-Iran tensions

Heightened uncertainty surrounding the occurrence of another round of talks between the US and Iran has improved the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 98.35.

Tehran has refused to return to the table to resume negotiations over the permanent ceasefire with the US due to its “excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade”, according to the Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

FIIs continue raising stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net buyers in the last three trading days in the Indian stock market, and have raised their stake worth Rs. 1,731.71 crore. The sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market has improved since the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 22.

Overseas investors were not gung-ho on Indian equities since the announcement; however, the pace of selling reduced initially, and eventually they started turning out to be net buyers.

On the data front, investors await the US Retail Sales data for March, which will be released on Tuesday. The US Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have risen at a strong pace of 1.3% on a monthly basis, against a 0.6% growth seen in February.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers above 20-day EMA

USD/INR recovers its Friday's losses and rises further to near 93.25 on Monday, resulting in an improvement in the near-term outlook, as it reclaims the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 93.05.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to oscillate in the 40.00-60.00 zone, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the upside, the pair could recover further towards 94.00 if it manages a sustained move above the 20-day EMA. Looking down, the January 28 high at around 92.28 is the key support level; a close below 92.28 would expose the spot to the March 5 low at 91.40.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Gold remains closely tied to risk proxies, with weekend geopolitical twists denting risk appetite. They see consolidation near current levels, with resistance around 4,850–4,900 and support at 4,714 and 4,650/70, and expect Gold’s near‑term direction to depend on ceasefire outcomes and continue to prefer buying dips rather than chasing rallies.

Consolidation with dip-buying bias

"Geopolitical twist over the weekend is a setback to risk sentiments, and is likely to see spillover effects onto gold, which still trades cues from risk proxies in the interim."

"Gold rose to as high as 4889 levels, on earlier news that Strait of Hormuz was open, before some retracement into NY close."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI is flat. Consolidation likely for now. Resistance at 4850 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4900 (50 DMA). Support at 4714 (100 DMA), 4650/70 levels (21, 38.2% fibo)."

"We still expect gold’s near-term directional trade to take cues from broader risk sentiment, dependent on [how] ceasefire talks pan out."

"This underscores our take on buying on dip (instead of chasing longs) in current environment."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• USD/CAD struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick amid mixed fundamental cues.
• Rallying Oil prices underpin the Loonie, while fresh US-Iran tensions lend support to the USD.
• Inflation fears push US bond yields higher and favor the USD bulls, limiting losses for the pair.

The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers on Monday, though it struggles to capitalize on the move or find acceptance above the 1.3700 mark amid mixed fundamental cues. Renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz temper investors' appetite for riskier assets, offering some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and the currency pair. That said, a sharp intraday rally in Crude Oil prices underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and caps the upside for spot prices.

The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman as part of its blockade. Iran viewed this as a breach of the ceasefire agreement and once again closed the strategic waterway after briefly opening it following a 10-day truce between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah on Friday. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue until a peace deal was agreed between the two countries.

Iranian state media reported that officials will not participate while the US blockade remains in place. The standoff dampens hopes for an agreement before the current ceasefire ends on April 22, triggering a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and benefiting the USD's reserve currency status. Adding to this, reviving inflationary concerns push US Treasury bond yields higher, which turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the buck and the USD/CAD pair.

The instability around the world's most critical maritime chokepoint for energy assists Crude Oil prices in recovering a major part of Friday's losses to the lowest level since March 11. Furthermore, diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and contribute to keeping a lid on the USD/CAD pair. In fact, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a roughly 40% chance of a Fed rate cut by the year-end.

The mixed fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out and that the recent downfall witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run its course. Traders now look to the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures for more cues about the Bank of Canada's (BoC) outlook. This, along with developments surrounding the US-Iran saga, might provide short-term trading impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis:

Spot prices on Friday showed some resilience below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March upswing. That said, the  recent breakdown below a confluence comprising the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level and the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the lack of strong follow-through buying warrants caution for bulls.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned marginally positive, hinting at waning downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 35 still reflects weak demand, suggesting rebounds could struggle while the price remains capped under these overhead levels.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3726, ahead of the 1.3775-1.3785 confluence and the 1.3800 mark, with further upside hurdle emerging at the 23.6% retracement near 1.3853. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.3669, with deeper pullbacks exposing the 78.6% retracement at 1.3588 and the prior swing low area around 1.3485 if bearish pressure re-intensifies.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• USD/JPY rises to near 159.00 as the Japanese Yen extends its weakness.
• A 7.3 magnitude earthquake and a tsunami hit the off Japan coast.
• The uncertainty over the resumption of the US-Iran peace talks has improved the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.25% higher to near 159.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends underperformance, following natural disasters in Japan.

During the day, there has been an earthquake off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, with a 73 magnitude. However, a spokesperson from Hokkaido Electric Power confirms that there has been no abnormality at the Tomari nuclear power plant after the quake. However, a spokesperson from Hokkaido Electric confirms that there has been no abnormality at Tomari nuclear power plant after quake. Also, the NHK announced that a tsunami has been observed off the Japanese coast.

The Japanese Yen was already underperforming earlier in the day amid growing doubts over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates in its monetary policy meeting on April 28. Investors expect the BoJ to avoid any monetary policy adjustment as a negative energy shock has raised concerns over Japan’s economic outlook.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly as its safe-haven demand has improved amid Iran’s refusal to conduct another round of negotiation talks with the US. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.30.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the day that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now. Also, a senior Iranian source stated that the “continuation of US blockade on Iranian ships undermines the US-Iran peace talks”.

On the domestic front, investors await the confirmation hearing of US President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Chairman before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. Investors will pay close attention to Warsh’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of de-anchored inflation expectations amid higher oil prices.

• The Canadian Consumer Price Index is seen accelerating 1.1% in March following a 0.5% increase in February.
• The yearly CPI inflation is expected to have jumped to 2.5%, above the BoC’s target
• The Canadian Dollar maintains a positive tone against the US Dollar in April.

Canada’s economic docket opens on Monday with the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran. The data, released by Statistics Canada, is likely to confirm a significant increase in price pressures, driven by higher energy costs. 

Market analysts foresee the monthly CPI accelerating 1.1%, more than twice the 0.5% reading seen before the war started in February. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the CPI is expected to have grown at a 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) rate, from 1.8% in the previous month. 

The sharp increase in Oil and Gas prices, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, would have been the main driver of higher inflationary figures. However, the core inflation, which strips the influence of energy and food prices, is seen fairly steady, rising  0.3% in March, compared to 0.4% in the previous month, and ticking up to 2.4% from 2.3% year-on-year.

These figures are likely to raise some eyebrows at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy committee, and, highly likely, bring the possibility of a rate hike back to the table. The BoC has lowered interest rates by 2.75% over the last two years.

What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?

Canada’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 2.25%, at its March 18 meeting, but the monetary policy statement already warned about “increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy", stemming from the US-Iran war.

Inflation data for March will corroborate those fears. As previously stated, headline CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% while core inflation would pick up to 2.4%, in both cases significantly above the central bank’s 2% inflation target. 

These figures will definitely raise market speculation about monetary tightening, although the broader macroeconomic picture clouds the bank’s monetary policy stance. The Canadian economy contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2025, and the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a meagre 0.1% growth in January. Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from March revealed that business activity contracted for the first time since November, hinting at a soft end of the quarter.

In this context, BoC policymakers are likely to think twice before hiking interest rates too early, as it might damage an already frail growth, tipping the economy into a recession.  ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole points out: "Markets are pricing around 40bp of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC has not signalled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA renegotiations – a major downside risk for Canada’s activity and jobs."

When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canada’s Consumer Price Index figures for March will be released by Statistics Canada on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Higher inflation figures, when they are driven by stronger economic activity and a tight labour market, tend to have a positive impact on the currency. This time, however, the scenario is somewhat different.

Canadian economic growth remains sluggish, weighed down by the higher tariffs from the US, its main trading partner. With this in mind, a sharp increase in inflation will create a headache for the Bank of Canada, which will have to choose between supporting economic growth and combating inflation, and might hurt the Loonie.

All things considered, a strong CPI is likely to raise concerns about stagflation and put the Canadian Dollar under pressure. In the current scenario, the CAD would be favoured by softer-than-expected inflation figures, which would buy some time for the Bank of Canada to wait for additional data before deciding its next monetary policy steps.

Regarding the USD/CAD, Guillermo Alcala, FX Analyst at FXStreet, observes the pair’s downward trend since early April, rather due to the US Dollar’s weakness, amid investors’ optimism about a resolution of the Middle East conflict, than to any intrinsic Canadian Dollar strength.

“Canadian Dollar bulls are focusing on the area between 1.3650 and 1.3670, where the USD/CAD  found support last week and also on March 16 and 23, before the March 9 low at 1.3525”. Alcalá, however, warns about technical indicators: “The overbought levels in the 4-hour Relative StrengthIndex (RSI) and some bearish divergence in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest that a corrective reaction might be ahead.”

On the upside, Alcalá sees the “1.3735 area (April 14 low) as immediate resistance, ahead of the April 15 high, right below 1.3790, and the April 13 highs around 1.3875.”

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights how shifting perceptions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving sharp moves in Brent. He notes Brent crude’s more than 9% drop on Friday to $90.38/bbl and a 7% gap higher on Monday as markets reprice geopolitical risk and the reduced likelihood of a durable ceasefire.

Oil swings with Hormuz uncertainty

"On Friday Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that the Strait was “completely open” to all commercial vessels for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Markets reacted swiftly, the S&P500 rose 1.20% to close at a new all-time high and the Brent crude front future fell more than 9% to settle at $90.38/bbl – its lowest weekly close since the war began."

"Even dated Brent (the physical oil price for immediate delivery) fell by more than 15% to $98.95/bbl – its lowest level since March 11th, which was the immediate aftermath of Trump’s comment that the war in Iran is “very complete”."

"Unsurprisingly, markets this morning are once again repricing the status of the Strait and the diminished prospect for a peace agreement ahead of the expected expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday. Brent crude has opened 7% higher, high beta FX is being sold sharply, and US equity futures are pointing to losses of ~0.8% at market open."

"So, while we have Schrodinger’s Strait we also have Schrodinger’s market where we are simultaneously in the grip of the largest energy shock in history (according to the IEA) with physical shortages of loads of things needed for 21st century life, but this is also incredibly bullish and stock indices remain close to all-time highs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• EUR/USD trims losses and reaches the 1.1760 area after bouncing up from session lows around 1.1730.
• German Producer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly four years in March.
• The Euro remains capped below a previous support area around 1.1770.

The Euro (EUR) has retraced previous losses against the US Dollar (USD) following a weak weekly opening, as rising tensions between the US and Iran have curbed hopes of a swift resolution of the conflict. The pair has returned to the 1.1760 area after hitting daily lows below 1.1730, but upside attempts remain capped below the lows seen at the end of last week, in the 1.1770 area.

Risk appetite remains subdued, as investors await developments from the Middle East after the seizure of an Iranian vessel by US authorities undermined an already frail ceasefire. Iranian authorities have threatened retaliation and left their participation in the peace talks, scheduled to restart on Tuesday, in the air.

In Europe, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) data has shown a 2.5% monthly increase in March, its strongest reading since August 2022, confirming the upside risks for inflation stemming from Iran's war. These figures follow strong wholesale prices and higher consumer inflation numbers in several other EU countries released last week, and add pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in the coming months.

Technical Analysis: Resistance at former support near 1.1770

EUR/USD trades right above 1.1750, with a previous support area around 1.1770 capping bulls for now. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart are in bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 45, suggesting waning bullish momentum after the recent pullback, while the negative readings in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that directional pressure remains modestly skewed to the downside.

Downside attempts remain contained above the previous tops, between 1.1720 and 1.1740, so far closing the path towards the key support area between the April 13 low, at 1.1680, and the support trendline from late March lows, now at 1.1660.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the aforementioned 1.1770 area (April 15, 16 lows). A break of that level exposes the April 16 highs at 1.1825 and then 1.1850.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)