Forex News
- EUR/USD edges lower to close near 1.1540, down 0.1%, its fourth loss in four sessions
- The ECB's move to 2.50% takes effect on Wednesday, the day the Fed votes at 18:00 GMT
- Eurozone ZEW sentiment fell to 25.8 against a 39.9 forecast, with banking the one sector up
EUR/USD closed Tuesday near 1.1540, down 0.1%. It fell on the day the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its deposit rate to 2.50% and in each of the three sessions since. That increase takes legal effect on Wednesday, the same day the Fed is expected to raise its own rate for the first time since July 2023. Wednesday's Asian and London hours are the last before it does, and the Euro arrives with its own central bank's second hike of the year already in hand. It has not helped.
Two hikes from Frankfurt, none yet from Washington, and a lower Euro
A currency pair prices the gap between what two central banks are expected to pay. The ECB has raised its deposit rate twice since June, to 2.50%, and the Fed's range still tops out at 3.75%. Wednesday takes that ceiling to 4.00%, which widens the gap to a point and a half on the day the ECB's quarter-point becomes official. Futures then have the Fed at 4.25% or higher by March and, more likely than not, at 4.50% or higher by June, while investors see the ECB's next move in December at the earliest.
Both banks are raising rates for the same reason, a barrel of Crude Oil above $100.00 after Saudi Arabia shut its pipeline around the Strait of Hormuz, and the two economies sit on opposite sides of it. The United States is a net exporter of petroleum and the Euro area imports nearly all of its Crude Oil. The same price that lets the Fed raise rates into a growing economy makes the ECB raise them into an import bill. The Dollar Index sits just under 100.
The ECB President called last Thursday's decision an easy one, the vote was unanimous, and the Council's own forecasts have inflation at 3.0% this year and 2.5% next, with growth upgraded to 0.9% this year and 1.4% next. EUR/USD traded near 1.1600 on June 11, the day the ECB's first hike landed. It closed at 1.1538 on Tuesday, and the Fed has yet to raise anything.
Higher rates lifted one sector in the survey, and it was the banks
The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) survey of Eurozone investor sentiment fell to 25.8 in September against a forecast of 39.9 and 31.4 in August, and the German reading came in at 34.7 against 42.5. Current conditions improved, to -13.9 from -21.5 for the Eurozone and to -47.1 from -61.1 for Germany, so the economy looks better than it did and the outlook worse. The survey's authors blame energy prices tied to the war and what they call hybrid attacks. Germany's 10-year yield has traded at its highest since 2011 since the ECB decision, which is the bond market pricing the hikes that the survey says the economy is not ready for.
The one sector the survey found improving was banking, up 8.2 points to 52.9, which is the sector that collects the rate everyone else pays. Cars sat at -22.6 and steel at -16.7. A survey like that is the constraint on the ECB delivering the December hike investors expect, which puts the Euro's rate path, not the Dollar's, at risk of being trimmed.
Frankfurt gets the hour before Washington
Eurozone industrial production for July lands at 09:00 GMT on Wednesday, forecast down 0.2% after a flat June, and two Governing Council members speak at 12:15 GMT and 13:00 GMT. The ECB President speaks at 17:00 GMT, one hour before the Fed decides. The Council said on Thursday that it will not commit to a path in advance, and its President said it did not discuss what comes next. It has had six days.
The Fed's decision comes at 18:00 GMT, with the quarter-point priced at 92.5%, a second hike by December and a third by March. The press conference follows at 18:30 GMT, after American retail sales at 12:30 GMT, forecast up 0.8%. On Thursday the ECB's chief economist speaks at 07:00 GMT, final August inflation lands at 09:00 GMT with the core rate forecast steady at 2.4%, and the Bank of England decides at 11:00 GMT. Eurozone finance ministers meet on Friday.
Levels and bias
Resistance: Monday's high just under 1.1600 is the first hurdle. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) sit just above 1.1550, within 11 pips of each other, and Tuesday's close beneath both was the first since the mid-August breakout. The September highs just under 1.1650 sit behind them.
Support: Tuesday's low sits 27 pips above 1.1500, and 1.1500 itself is the mid-August base, the last place the pair found buyers before the August rally. The late-July low near 1.1450 is the next level beneath it.
Bias: Bearish while the moving averages just above 1.1550 cap, with 1.1500 the first objective and 1.1450 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, reads near 16, beneath the 20 line where the late-July selling stopped. A daily close back above 1.1600 voids the case.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- GBP/JPY recovers as RSI climbs away from oversold territory.
- Break above 209.58 could reopen the path toward 210.00.
- Bulls need 213.22 reclaimed to challenge broader bearish trend.
The GBP/JPY edges higher by about 0.29% on Tuesday, even as risk appetite has shifted to the sour side due to geopolitical developments that are driving global bond yields higher amid inflation fears. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 209.02 after bouncing off daily lows of 208.25.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Price action in the daily chart shows that the cross is trending lower, following two interventions in the FX markets. This sent GBP/JPY tumbling from around yearly highs near 220.00 to current spot prices, for a loss of over 1,300 pips.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, though momentum tilted modestly upwards after the index crossed from below 30 to nearly 34. Hence, in the short term, GBP/JPY could aim higher, challenging key resistance levels.
If GBP/JPY crosses the August 3 daily low of 209.58, it opens the door to test 210.00. Even though that is positive for bulls, to change the trend, they must surpass the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.22, paving the way towards the 215.00 mark.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.50% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.30% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.11% | 0.29% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.13% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.50% | -0.43% | -0.29% | -0.34% | -0.35% | -0.16% | -0.31% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | -0.08% | 0.05% | 0.34% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.35% | 0.01% | 0.19% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.13% | 0.16% | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.31% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD drifts lower to close near 1.3470, down 0.2%, ahead of the Fed's first hike since 2023
- UK CPI lands at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday, forecast at 3.1% from 2.9%
- Futures price four Bank of England hikes by mid-2027 and a 15% chance the first comes Thursday
GBP/USD closed Tuesday near 1.3470, down 0.2%. Wednesday's Asian and London hours are the last before the Fed is expected to raise its rate for the first time since July 2023. By the New York close its ceiling should sit a quarter-point above Bank Rate. The Bank of England votes on Thursday on whether to keep up, and is expected to let it.
Four hikes priced on each side, and only one side has a date
A currency pair prices the gap between what two central banks are expected to pay, not the level either sits at. Bank Rate is 3.75%, the Fed's range tops out at 3.75%, and Wednesday takes the American ceiling to 4.00%. Futures then have the Fed at 4.25% or higher by March and, more likely than not, at 4.50% or higher by June. Britain's rate futures, according to Trading Economics, fully price four Bank of England hikes by the middle of next year, which is the same number. Of the three big central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its rate twice since June, the Fed raises on Wednesday, and the Bank of England has not moved in 2026.
The difference is the calendar. The Fed's first hike is Wednesday. The Bank of England has held at 3.75% at five straight meetings. The July vote was 6-3, with three members wanting a quarter-point, a desk expects the same three and the same split on Thursday, and futures give the meeting about a 15% chance of a move. The market has four Bank of England hikes by next summer and gives Thursday a 15% chance of being the first. Wednesday widens the gap a quarter-point in the Dollar's favour, and Thursday is expected to leave it there.
Inflation reaches the Bank's forecast peak a quarter early
UK consumer prices land at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday, twelve hours before the Fed. The forecast is 3.1% for the year to August, from 2.9% in July, with the core rate steady at 2.6% and the retail price index at 3.5%. July's rise came from the household energy price cap. The Bank of England's own August projection had inflation peaking near 3.2% in the fourth quarter, so Wednesday's forecast is the peak arriving a quarter early, and the release is the one scheduled item that can lift the Pound before the Fed does the opposite.
Tuesday's labour data went the other way. The claimant count rose 27.8K in August against a forecast of 8.3K and a fall of 11.8K in July, payrolled employees fell 26K on the month and 145K on the year, and unemployment held at 4.9% against a forecast of 5.0%. Regular pay is rising 3.5%, which splits into 2.9% in the private sector and 6.3% in the public sector. The committee sets one rate for both. A hot inflation number over a soft jobs number is the argument the committee already has, and it is the Pound's one route higher on Wednesday morning.
Gilts pay the most since 2007, and Sterling is not collecting
The 10-year gilt yield traded near 5.4% last week, its highest since 2007, and GBP/USD closed Tuesday at the bottom of its 30-day range. Yields help a currency when the central bank is the one raising them, because the extra return is a policy. When the market raises them on its own, the extra return is the price of holding the debt, and the currency does not collect it. Goldman Sachs argues the gilt market's move toward pricing hikes may have gone too far. The Governor said last week that another hike was not inevitable. The market has four of them.
The Fed decides at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the quarter-point priced at 92.5% and the press conference at 18:30 GMT, after August retail sales at 12:30 GMT, forecast up 0.8%. The Bank of England follows at 11:00 GMT on Thursday, with Bank Rate forecast to stay at 3.75% and the vote forecast at six to hold, three to hike and none to cut. British retail sales at 06:00 GMT on Friday are forecast down 0.2% for August after a 0.5% fall.
Levels and bias
Resistance: The 1.3500 area is the first hurdle, where Tuesday's high and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sit together, and Tuesday's close beneath that average was the first since early August. The 1.3550 area capped every session from September 3 to September 10 and is the one that matters. The late-August highs near 1.3600 sit behind it.
Support: Tuesday's low just above 1.3450 is the first floor, and it is where the pair turned on September 2. The 200-day EMA and the early-August base share the 1.3400 area, and the late-July low near 1.3300 is the next level below.
Bias: Bearish while the 1.3500 area caps, with the 1.3400 area the first objective and 1.3300 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, reads near 16, beneath the 20 line where the early-August selling stopped. A daily close back above 1.3550 voids the case.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/MXN rebounds from 17.10 as US Dollar demand strengthens.
- Hot PPI and strong jobs cement the case for Fed tightening.
- Banxico’s 6.50% rate keeps Peso carry support intact.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) loses some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/MXN rising by over 0.09% amid a sour market mood and a stronger Greenback, ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The exotic pair trades at 17.15, after hitting a daily low of 17.10.
USD/MXN gains momentum as markets nearly lock in September Fed hike
The latest inflation report on the producer and consumer front in the United States pushed investors to price in a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike on Wednesday. Even though most of the data was in line with forecasts, the jump in headline PPI to 5.4% may have driven the market's move.
This, alongside a strong August Nonfarm Payrolls report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh putting inflation at the forefront and confirming that the labor market is “consistent with full employment,” cemented the case for moving the Fed funds rate to 3.75%-4%.
In addition, the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which pushed energy prices higher and Oil above the $100 milestone, could be among the reasons the Fed is considering a pre-emptive rate hike.
Earlier, the US ADP Employment Change 4-week average continued to improve, exceeding the previous week's upwardly revised print of 16.25K, up from 12.25K, indicating labor market strength.
In Mexico, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has kept interest rates at 6.50% since May 2026, in a meeting in which the central bank announced that the easing cycle was practically over. Although Banxico acknowledged that the risks of inflation are tilted to the upside, last week’s 12-month inflation print was below estimates of 3.3%, coming in at 3.26%, but near the central bank’s 3% plus or minus 1% objective.
Ahead, Mexico’s economic docket will feature Retail Sales on September 22, followed by inflation readings for the first half of September on September 23, before Banxico’s meeting.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.1498. The pair remains below the latest simple moving average from the 50/100/200-day triple set at roughly 17.18, keeping the near-term bias capped despite the recent bounce from sub-17.00 levels. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered toward 60, hinting at improving momentum, but with price still trading under the main moving average and within the context of broader descending resistance lines, rallies look vulnerable to selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the simple moving average near 17.18, with the broader downward trend-line structure reinforcing supply higher up. On the downside, initial support is located at the horizontal level around 16.89; a break below this floor would reopen the path toward the prior cycle lows, whereas holding above it would keep the pair consolidating beneath the 17.18 cap.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
(This story was corrected on September 15 at 21:41 GMT to say “The exotic pair trades at 17.15, after hitting a daily low of 17.10” not a yearly low of 17.10.)
- NZD/USD has extended its decline toward the bottom of its recent range, pressured by a broadly stronger US Dollar.
- Higher US yields and Wednesday's expected Fed rate hike are driving the move.
- New Zealand Q2 GDP, due late Wednesday and seen slowing sharply, is the next risk factor for the kiwi.
NZD/USD trades close to the 0.5760s, extending a run of losses that has dragged it toward the lower end of its recent range. A broadly firmer US Dollar (USD) is behind the slide, with the greenback supported by climbing United States (US) yields and rate-hike expectations.
Markets are expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates on Wednesday, with investors leaning toward a 25 basis points (bps) hike to 3.75%-4.00%, and the risk-off tone has weighed on growth-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). On another note, the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007, topping 5%, as a more than 3% jump in oil revived inflation worries.
New Zealand's Q2 Gross Domestic Product is due late on Wednesday, with growth expected to slow sharply to 0.1% on the quarter from 0.8%.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5757. The pair remains under clear downside pressure as it trades below both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which now cap the upside around 0.5787 and 0.5877 respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 30, hinting at stretched but persistent bearish momentum rather than a confirmed reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near 0.5787, followed by the 100-period SMA at 0.5877. Above there, horizontal barriers emerge at 0.5907, 0.5930 and 0.5965, forming a dense supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish tone. No nearby structural supports are defined by the current indicator set, leaving the pair vulnerable to further declines unless buyers step in to establish a new floor below the market.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Quek Ser Leang at UOB notes USD/CNH remains directionless, trading narrowly around 6.71 with little change in momentum. Intraday, the pair is expected to hold between 6.7060 and 6.7160. On a 1–3 week horizon, UOB still sees potential for the Dollar to edge higher, but any advance should stay contained within a broader 6.7040–6.7290 range.
Chinese Yuan holds tight trading band
"24-HOUR VIEW: USD traded within a 6.7060/6.7146 range last Friday and closed little changed at 6.7093 (-0.09%). Yesterday, we indicated that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum,” and we expected USD “to trade in a range of 6.7040/6.7120.” USD then traded between 6.7045 and 6.7143, closing unchanged at 6.7096. The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 6.7060 and 6.7160."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (11 Sep, spot at 6.7140), we highlighted “the increasing upward momentum suggests USD could edge higher, but currently, any advance should stay within a 6.7040/6.7290 range.” Although upward momentum has slowed somewhat since then, we continue to hold the same view for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD breaks 100-day SMA as sellers regain momentum.
- Bearish RSI points lower while the 50-day SMA guards the downside.
- Break below 1.1500 exposes 1.1450 and 1.1353 next.
The Euro (EUR) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sliding below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1555, opening the door to further downside, with sellers setting their sights on Monday’s low of 1.1523. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1548, slightly above the 50-day SMA of 1.1530.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The pair seems poised to consolidate in the short term, finding support at the 50-day SMA, but the rally was capped by the 100-day SMA. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bearish and trending lower, indicating that sellers are strengthening.
If EUR/USD dives below the 50-day SMA, it could challenge 1.1500. A breach of the latter would expose the 1.1450 psychological milestone and the July 28 swing low at 1.1353. On further weakness, the year-to-date low is up next at 1.1324.
On the other hand, for EUR/USD to recover, buyers must reclaim the 100-day SMA at 1.1555. On further strength, the next area of interest is 1.1600, immediately followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1632 and by 1.1650.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.37% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | 0.09% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.33% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.19% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.50% | -0.41% | -0.33% | -0.38% | -0.37% | -0.13% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.01% | 0.26% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.37% | -0.01% | 0.24% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.37% | -0.31% | -0.19% | 0.13% | -0.26% | -0.24% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.00% | 0.33% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected on September 15 at 20:39 GMT to say that 1.1324 is the EUR/USD year-to-date high, not the year-to-date low.)
Commerzbank analysts report that USD/IDR extended gains as investors assessed the appointment of Suahasil Nazara as Indonesia’s new Finance Minister, the third in under two years. While markets took some reassurance from his technocratic profile and emphasis on fiscal prudence, the muted reaction suggests investors await evidence of a more credible and predictable fiscal stance.
Fiscal credibility and Rupiah reaction
"President Prabowo Subianto abruptly dismissed Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa yesterday after around one year in office. Deputy Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara was appointed as his replacement, making him Indonesia’s third finance minister in less than two years."
"Widely viewed as a technocrat, Nazara is expected to prioritise fiscal prudence. He served as deputy finance minister under Sri Mulyani from 2019 and was closely involved in fiscal policymaking and budget management. Before that, he held several senior roles at the Finance Ministry, including head of the Fiscal Policy Agency from 2016 to 2019."
"Nazara’s appointment could signal greater emphasis on fiscal prudence and policy continuity. This follows President Prabowo’s selection of technocrat and continuity candidate Destry Damayanti as Bank Indonesia (BI) governor last month. Together, these appointments should provide some reassurance to markets over adherence to the 3% fiscal-deficit ceiling and continuity in BI’s policy framework. They may also reduce concerns that fiscal expansion will place greater pressure on BI to accommodate the government’s growth agenda."
"The market response suggested some initial relief but remained cautious. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) recovered from an intraday decline of 2.6% to close 0.1% lower yesterday. The 10Y Indonesian government bond yield rose 1bp to 7.16%, while the USD/IDR 1-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) remained within the 17,700-17,740 range. Notably, Indonesia’s 5Y Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread widened to 83.7bp from 82.8bp last Friday."
"This muted market response suggests that investors are awaiting evidence that Nazara’s appointment will translate into a more credible fiscal stance. Frequent turnover at the Finance Ministry could continue to weigh on policy predictability, particularly if Nazara has limited influence over spending priorities. Market confidence may improve if he is given sufficient latitude to strengthen the fiscal position through tighter spending control and/or additional revenue measures as the government finalises the 2027 budget."
"In FX, USD/IDR rose 0.3% to 17,648 yesterday, marking its third consecutive gain. The pair showed little reaction to Sadewa’s dismissal and continued to track higher global crude oil prices and broad USD strength. Year-to-date, IDR is down 5.4% vs the USD, compared to the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -1.4%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI Crude Oil rallies 3% to just above $100.00 as Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline shuts
- Yanbu's tanks hold four days of exports against a three-to-five-week pipeline repair
- Four commodity vessels cleared Hormuz on Monday against a US target near 50 a night
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades just above $100.00, up about 3% on the day. It is on track for a third straight weekly gain. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline on Friday, and until it reopens the price is set by the tank farm at the pipeline's Red Sea end, which holds about four days of exports. Brent, the seaborne benchmark, trades near $108.00. The Fed meets on the consequences on Wednesday.
The pipeline built for a blocked strait lasted six months of one
Saudi Arabia built the East-West pipeline in 1981, during the Iran-Iraq war, so that its Crude Oil could reach the Red Sea port of Yanbu without passing the Strait of Hormuz. It has been the kingdom's export route since Iran blocked the strait in March. The pipe can carry 7 million barrels a day and Yanbu's berths can load about 4.5 million, so the port was always the narrower end.
Drones launched from Iraq's Maysan province hit the line on Thursday, and Riyadh shut it on Friday as a precaution. It blames Iran-backed militias, Tehran denies it, and two regional officials put the repair at three to five weeks. Yanbu's tanks hold about 15 million barrels, four days at the rate they have been loading, and Asian refiners due there this week had no word on delays as of Monday.
The barrel that replaces a Yanbu cargo loads on the Texas coast, which is why a pumping station south of Medina prices West Texas Crude Oil. Kpler puts a month's outage at 120 million barrels, on the assumption that the pipeline was carrying 4.5 million a day. In August it carried 2 million, because Houthi attacks had made the Red Sea leg riskier. The same line lost a pumping station in April, fell to 700K barrels a day and was declared repaired in three days, which is the event that ends this rally whenever it comes.
The alternative to the pipeline is doing four ships a day
Kpler counted four commodity vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down from ten on Sunday, against a US target of about 50 a night by the middle of this month. During the summer truce, which lapsed in August, Kpler had about 6 million barrels a day clearing the Gulf, 40% of what the strait carried in 2025.
President Trump says the waterway is acceptable for now, with the US Navy escorting tankers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says a Panama-flagged tanker struck a mine. Oman's foreign minister postponed Monday's regional meeting on reopening the strait, citing the need for agreement, which is what the meeting was for.
Yanbu's cargoes are not clear of the war either. They sail north to Suez, and the Houthis, who are reported to hold Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea, have begun targeting Saudi ships on that leg as well. The strait and the pipeline are the two ways Gulf Crude Oil reaches a ship, and a barrel loaded at Corpus Christi needs neither, which is what the $100.00 is for.
The reserve built for this has been spent on this
The barrel added 3% on Tuesday against a Dollar Index just under 100 and a Fed that is expected to raise its rate at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the quarter-point priced at 92.5%. Both are supposed to work against it: a stronger Dollar makes the same barrel dearer for every buyer outside the United States, and a higher overnight rate makes it costlier to hold one in a tank. The Fed is moving in part because of this chart, since consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, much of it fuel.
The American Petroleum Institute's inventory count lands at 20:30 GMT on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes its own at 14:30 GMT on Wednesday. Last week's report had commercial Crude Oil stocks down 0.4 million barrels to 424.1 million, level with the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held 285.4 million barrels, its lowest since November 1982, having lent out 130 million since the week the war began. Diesel topped $6 a gallon last week for the first time, which is the demand response the Fed is meeting on Wednesday to arrange.
Levels and bias
Resistance: Today's high just above $102.00 is the first hurdle. The mid-May highs just under $105.00 are the ones that matter, the last prices paid before the slide to July's low, and the late-April high near $107.50 sits behind them.
Support: Today's low just above $97.50 is the first floor. Friday's low near $95.50 is the one that matters, and last Wednesday's high near $94.50, the top of the range Thursday's attack broke, is beneath it.
Bias: Higher while Friday's low near $95.50 holds on any pullback, with the mid-May highs just under $105.00 the first objective and $107.50 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, reads near 88, above the 80 line where the March and late-July rallies both topped within days of crossing it. A daily close beneath $94.50 voids the case.
WTI spot daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Chinese growth remains export-led as domestic demand stays soft, with investment and retail sales under pressure and car sales slumping. While a rising trade surplus supports the currency, he highlights that CNY gains versus the US Dollar have slowed and expects only gradual further appreciation given persistent domestic economic weakness.
Export-led growth tempers CNY gains
"In the first eight months of the year, investment fell by 7.2% compared with the same period last year, which means it likely dropped by about 11% yoy in August. In addition to the construction sector, where new construction starts fell again by more than 30% yoy, investment in infrastructure and the manufacturing sector also continues to decline."
"Meanwhile, retail sales were also disappointing, rising by only 0.4% yoy. When inflation is factored out of these nominal figures, real sales actually fell by 0.4% yoy."
"Chinese growth therefore continues to be driven by exports. Data from last week shows that China’s trade surplus continues to grow, thereby supporting economic growth. The high surplus also helps support the currency because foreign capital continues to flow into the country."
"However, a look at the CNY’s performance against the US dollar shows that the CNY’s appreciation has recently lost significant momentum. In the first few months of the year, the CNY was still appreciating by about 1% per month against the U.S. dollar (except for March, at the start of the Iran conflict). Recently, however, this appreciation has slowed to about 0.5% per month."
"We believe that weakness in the domestic economy is a factor here. And since this weakness is likely to persist, we expect only a slow further appreciation of the CNY against the US dollar for the remainder of the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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