Forex News
- Silver price surges to near $80.80 as Iran truce hopes keep the US Dollar under pressure.
- US President Trump expresses confidence that the war with Iran is very close to an end.
- Traders price out Fed’s two interest rate hikes on US-Iran truce optimism.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 2.2% higher to near $80.80 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday, aiming to recapture the four-week high of $81.00. The white metal trades firmly as the US Dollar (US) continues to underperform in the wake of growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will soon reach a permanent ceasefire.
In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posted a fresh over six-week low at 97.85.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
The US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as comments from Washington have signaled that the war with Iran is “very close” to an end. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Washington is very much engaged in negotiations with Iran and another round of talks is very likely to be scheduled in Pakistan, according to The Guardian.
In the first round of talks, the US and Iran failed to get a breakthrough as Vice President (VP) JD Vance-led team made clear that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran giving up its nuclear ambitions are non-negotiable.
On the monetary front, traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year, a sharp turnaround from two interest rate hikes projected in March, as higher oil prices boosted inflation projections globally.
Silver technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades near the horizontal boundary of the Ascending Triangle formation at around $80.80. The white metal holds a constructive near-term bullish bias as it trades above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.29 and maintains distance from the upward support trend line drawn from prior lows, which is now tracked near $75.81. Momentum aligns with this constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just below the overbought band around 58, hinting that buyers retain control without yet signaling extreme conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at $76.29, ahead of the ascending trend-line support near $75.81. As long as XAG/USD holds above these layers of support, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective pauses within the broader advance, while a clear break below the trend-line region would weaken the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper retracement towards the April 7 low at $68.81.
Looking up, the Silver price could approach the March 13 high of $85.46 if it manages a decisive breakout of the horizontal boundary of the Ascending Triangle formation at around $80.80
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The Indian Rupee edges higher against the US Dollar due to continued underperformance from the US Dollar.
- Investors await the outcome of Israel-Lebanon talks, which are scheduled later in the day.
- Foreign investors raise little stake in the Indian stock market on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair edges down to near 93.28 as the US Dollar (USD) faces intense selling pressure due to improving hopes of a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
During the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh six-week low near 97.85.
US-Iran optimism diminishes US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal
The optimism over the US-Iran permanent truce has diminished demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar, and riskier assets are attracting strong buying interest globally. The Iran truce hopes are prompted by comments from US President Donald Trump that the war with Tehran is “very close” to over. Trump also stated on Wednesday that there could be some positive announcements regarding the US-Iran truce in the next two days. "I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do," Trump said in an interview with ABC News.
Though the US Dollar has been battered heavily in the last few trading days due to US-Iran truce hopes, the downside in the USD/INR pair has remained limited due to stronger demand for US Dollars by Indian importers.
According to a Reuters report, most bankers see limited upside for the rupee from current levels amid continued hedging demand from importers and interest in locking in longer‑term dollar liabilities.
FIIs add little stake in Indian stock market on Wednesday
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers in the Indian equity market on Wednesday after paring stake on Monday. However, the investment poured in was very small in comparison with the outflows seen this month. On Wednesday, FIIs bought shares worth Rs. 666.15 crore. So far in April, overseas investors have remained net buyers in only two trading days and have bought stake cumulatively worth Rs. 1,338.24 crore. In the remaining days, FIIs remained net sellers and offloaded stake worth Rs. 41,627.90 crore.
Going forward, investors will focus on negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, which are scheduled later in the day. Investors will pay close attention to Israel-Lebanon talks to get cues about whether both nations want to de-escalate military actions or escalate them.
The confirmation from both nations stopping military actions would improve the credibility of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which will expire on April 21. It will also improve hopes of a permanent truce between the two nations. Earlier, Tehran accused Washington of violating the terms of the temporary ceasefire by continuing attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 93.28, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 93.1181. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 suggests balanced momentum after easing from overbought territory, hinting that upside pressure has moderated but underlying demand remains intact while price stays above the short-term EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 93.12, where a sustained break would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper corrective phase towards the January high of 92.29. Looking up, the pair could be hopeful of reclaiming the all-time high of 95.15 if it manages to recover sustainably above the 94.00 mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- WTI price edges lower to near $88.20 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Signs of possible de-escalation in the Middle East weigh on the WTI price.
- Trump's order to block Iran's ports contributes to the downside of black gold.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.20 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price declines amid optimism over the ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The US and Iran have been in indirect talks aimed at extending the two-week ceasefire beyond its expiry on April 22. US President Donald Trump said the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran was "close to over," while the White House said more in-person talks would likely take place in Pakistan again. Hopes of more peace talks between the two countries ease concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies, dragging the WTI price lower.
“Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” the IEA said in a report published Tuesday.
Oil traders are also weighing how the US blockade will affect global energy supplies. The US blockade targeting Iranian ports could further pressure remaining flows, with Washington reporting that several vessels had already turned back in the first 24 hours, even as transit via non-Iranian ports continues.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold regains some positive traction following the previous day’s pullback from a four-week top.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading Fed rate hike bets undermine the USD, supporting the bullion.
- Hormuz risks could limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD and keep a lid on the commodity.
Gold (XAU/USD) retains its positive bias through the Asian session on Thursday and currently trades around the $4,835 region, well within striking distance of a nearly four-week high set the previous day. Investors continue to move toward riskier assets amid hopes that the door for Iran diplomacy remains open, which is seen as undermining the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and benefiting the commodity.
US President Donald Trump said that he believes the war with Iran may be coming to a conclusion soon, while the White House expressed optimism about reaching a deal to end the conflict. Moreover, reports suggest that there are growing prospects for a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran that could take place in a matter of days. The optimism, in turn, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and dents the safe-haven premium. Adding to this, diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) contribute to the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD and further lend support to the non-yielding Gold.
Expectations for diplomatic efforts to end the conflict keep Crude Oil prices well within striking distance of a three-week low set on Tuesday. Moreover, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier this week eased concerns about the inflationary impact of the war-driven surge in energy prices and tempered hawkish Fed expectations. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, late 2026 remains the primary window for potential easing by the US central bank. This, in turn, drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its lowest level since late February and backs the case for additional gains for the Gold.
Meanwhile, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, imposed after the end of the Islamabad talks last Saturday, has been fully implemented. Moreover, the leader of Iran’s joint military command said that its military could halt trade in the Gulf region if the US does not lift its blockade. Iran has also demanded an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon as a precondition for further talks with the US. However, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, indicated that he had not committed to a ceasefire and said that he instructed the IDF to continue thickening the security zone. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which should limit USD losses and cap gains for the Gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold bulls await breakout above 200-SMA pivotal hurdle on H4 before positioning for further gains
The XAU/USD pair remains just under the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,831.22, which acts as immediate overhead resistance and keeps the rebound in check. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 60. This hints at firm but not overheated bullish momentum that has yet to overpower the prevailing structural cap.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 200-SMA barrier before positioning for further gains to $4,916.20, or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall. A sustained break above the latter would be needed to ease the current ceiling and open the way toward $5,136.01 and then the cycle high area around $5,416.01.
On the downside, first support is aligned with the 50% retracement at $4,761.81, with additional layers of demand at the 38.2% Fibo. level near $4,607.41 and the 23.6% Fibo. around $4,416.39. The said support level would come into play if sellers regain control beneath the current consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -2.15% | -2.55% | -0.06% | -1.40% | -3.98% | -2.81% | -2.31% | |
| EUR | 2.15% | -0.41% | 2.19% | 0.77% | -1.89% | -0.70% | -0.16% | |
| GBP | 2.55% | 0.41% | 2.59% | 1.18% | -1.47% | -0.26% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -2.19% | -2.59% | -1.34% | -3.99% | -2.83% | -2.28% | |
| CAD | 1.40% | -0.77% | -1.18% | 1.34% | -2.69% | -1.51% | -0.93% | |
| AUD | 3.98% | 1.89% | 1.47% | 3.99% | 2.69% | 1.21% | 1.74% | |
| NZD | 2.81% | 0.70% | 0.26% | 2.83% | 1.51% | -1.21% | 0.52% | |
| CHF | 2.31% | 0.16% | -0.23% | 2.28% | 0.93% | -1.74% | -0.52% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session as renewed intervention fears boost the JPY.
- Iran diplomacy hopes and fading hawkish Fed bets undermine the USD, further weighing on the pair.
- Bears await a sustained break below the trading range support before positioning for further losses.
The USD/JPY cross attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's modest rise and drops to over a one-week low, around the 158.25 region during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 158.70 area, down over 0.15% for the day.
Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, saying that she discussed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on foreign exchange, revived intervention fears, and boosted the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, hopes for Iran diplomacy and fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since late February. These turned out to be key factors exerting pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
However, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on any further JPY appreciation and assist the currency pair to bounce off the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support on the 4-hour chart. The said area also represents the lower end of a short-term trading range, and a break below will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears, which should pave the way for deeper losses.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped into negative territory and continues to edge lower. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-bearish ground, hinting that the momentum is softening and buyers are losing some control. This further makes it prudent to wait for a decisive breakdown of structure before placing fresh bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair.
A clear break and acceptance below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, where buyers have room to defend the recent consolidation floor, would expose bigger corrective risk. However, as long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the underlying bias stays modestly bullish, and any recovery attempts from current levels would likely be viewed as a continuation of the prevailing uptrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.26% | -0.01% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.17% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.15% | 0.08% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.17% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.00% | -0.09% | 0.10% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.14% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/CAD weakens as the Canadian Dollar gains support despite softer oil prices.
- Washington and Tehran are weighing an extension of their two-week ceasefire to gain more time for peace negotiations.
- Middle East de-escalation boosts risk appetite, while falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures in the Eurozone.
EUR/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.6200 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from easing Middle East conflict. However, the commodity-linked CAD may come under pressure from softer oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude exporter to the United States.
Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for peace negotiations, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. However, Tehran may allow vessels to pass freely through the Omani side of the Strait if an agreement is reached to prevent a renewed escalation in hostilities.”
However, the Euro (EUR) also holds ground against its major peers amid improved market sentiment, driven by expectations of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. US President Donald Trump stated that the war was “close to over.” Reports, including those from Bloomberg, indicated speculation about a possible two-week extension of a ceasefire, although Trump dismissed the necessity of such a move, citing ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.
“Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have boosted risk appetite, with declining oil prices helping to ease inflationary pressures in Eurozone. Policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this week that the central bank must remain “completely agile” on rates, while emphasizing that it does not hold a bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, traders continue to view rate hikes as unavoidable, pricing in two quarter-point increases this year.
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,538.29 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 14,433.66 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 169,571.70 per tola from INR 168,351.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,538.29 |
10 Grams | 145,382.80 |
Tola | 169,571.70 |
Troy Ounce | 452,191.60 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EUR/JPY softens to around 187.50 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day EMA.
- The first upside barrier emerges at 187.95; the initial support level is seen at 186.20.
The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 187.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that she told the G7 to closely watch forex moves.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.00% by end-June, with nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll predicting the move, and a hike in April or in June seen as equally likely amid uncertainty over the fallout from the Iran war.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). The pair is pressing the upper side of its recent volatility envelope, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just under overbought territory around 69, which suggests strong upward momentum but also hints that upside could become stretched if gains extend without a corrective pause.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the upper Bollinger Band of 187.95, en route to 188.50. On the downside, any pullback would likely find first demand near the April 13 low of 186.20. The next contention level is seen at the middle Bollinger Band of 185.00, with a deeper setback exposing the rising 100-day EMA at 182.75.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The UK Economic Data Overview
Thursday's UK economic docket features the release of the monthly GDP print, alongside the Trade Balance and Industrial Production, all of which will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) at 06:00 GMT.
The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in February, up from a flat reading in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to show a 0.3% MoM rise, up from a modest of 0.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, the total Industrial Production seems to be coming in at 0.0% MoM in February as compared to the previous reading of -0.1%.
On an annualized basis, the Industrial Production is expected to have contracted by 0.9 versus 0.4% growth in the previous month, while the manufacturing output is also anticipated to have fallen by 0.3% in the reported month, versus 1.3% last month. Simultaneously, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported and is anticipated to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February vs a £14.449 billion deficit reported in the previous month.
How could the UK data affect GBP/USD?
A surprisingly stronger UK macro data could benefit the British Pound (GBP). In contrast, any disappointment is more likely to be overshadowed by expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will revive inflation and force the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside.
GBP/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis:
The recent breakout through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance– comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March fall – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the subsequent strength beyond the 1.3500 psychological mark, which coincided with the 50% retracement level, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators also back the positive bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above zero with an expanding positive histogram. This hints that buyers still have the upper hand as long as price holds above the resistance breakpoints, though bulls might still await a move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Apr 16, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: 0%
Source: Office for National Statistics
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