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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
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This section below was published at 13:15 GMT to cover the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcements and the immediate market reaction.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it left key rates unchanged following the February policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
ECB policy statement key takeaways
"Economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment."
"Low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, gradual rollout of public spending on defence and infrastructure and supportive effects of past interest rate cuts are underpinning growth."
"At the same time, outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions."
"ECB is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in medium term."
"Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining appropriate monetary policy stance."
"In particular, ECB’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of inflation outlook and risks surrounding it, in light of incoming economic and financial data, as well as dynamics of underlying inflation and strength of monetary policy transmission."
"ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path."
"APP and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal payments from maturing securities."
Market reaction to ECB policy decision
The ECB policy announcements don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the Euro's performance. As of writing, EUR/USD was trading marginally lower on the day at 1.1795.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.45% | 0.87% | 1.22% | 0.57% | -0.24% | 0.33% | 0.56% | |
| EUR | -0.45% | 0.38% | 0.81% | 0.11% | -0.69% | -0.11% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.87% | -0.38% | 0.30% | -0.27% | -1.06% | -0.49% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | -1.22% | -0.81% | -0.30% | -0.65% | -1.47% | -0.85% | -0.93% | |
| CAD | -0.57% | -0.11% | 0.27% | 0.65% | -0.77% | -0.21% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.69% | 1.06% | 1.47% | 0.77% | 0.58% | 0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | 0.11% | 0.49% | 0.85% | 0.21% | -0.58% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.56% | -0.10% | 0.28% | 0.93% | 0.01% | -0.80% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected at 13:24 GMT to note that the European Central Bank left key rates unchanged after the February meeting, not December).
This section below was published as a preview of the European Central Bank's policy decisions at 05:00 GMT.
- The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.
- ECB President Lagarde is likely to reiterate the meeting-by-meeting approach.
- EUR/USD remains stable above 1.1800, with buyers looking to return.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its two-day meeting and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for the fifth consecutive meeting, leaving the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility at 2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%, respectively.
Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward to explain policymakers’ reasoning behind the decision.
Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair trades above the 1.1800 mark, stabilizing after retracing sharply from January’s peak at 1.2082.
What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?
The ECB is in a good position and plans to remain there, refraining from any further monetary policy action. The ECB was among the first major central banks to cut rates after post-pandemic inflation peaks that drove multi-decade highs in rates. President Christine Lagarde's latest mantra has been that monetary policy is in a “good place,” and is expected to repeat the message.
The Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, offering no fresh clues about future action. As ING noted, “The minutes of the ECB’s December meeting confirm the ECB’s wait-and-see stance in a macro environment, in which the base case looks very benign, but risks remain unusually high.”
In the meantime, macroeconomic data released in the last couple of months confirm officials’ stance. The Euro area economy has not only been resilient but is finally showing signs of improvement.
According to the latest Eurostat data, the European Union (EU) grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December, while the 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.6% year-on-year.
In the meantime, inflation cooled down in January, as expected. Eurostat reported that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% in the year to January as expected, while easing from the 1.9% posted in December. The core HICP, which excludes volatile components such as food or energy, rose by 2.3% as anticipated, matching the previous month’s figure.
Finally, it is worth remembering that, speaking after the ECB’s final Governing Council meeting, President Lagarde made it clear that, given that monetary policy is in a “good place,” this does not imply a fixed or predictable path for rates. She also emphasised the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach.
In this scenario, the upcoming monetary policy decision is likely to be a non-event. The general consensus is that the ECB will maintain its hawkish stance and that President Lagarde will repeat the message that the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, attentive to economic developments without a pre-set monetary path.
How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?
As previously noted, the EUR/USD pair is stable above 1.1800 ahead of the announcement, following volatile price action over the previous two weeks. The EUR/USD pair also trades roughly 300 pips below its recent peak, yet retains most of its 2025 gains.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “Technically speaking, the EUR/USD pair bearish case seems well-limited. In the daily chart, the pair holds well above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading north above the 100 and 200 SMAs while providing support at around 1.1760. At the same time, technical indicators have picked up after nearing their midlines, presenting uneven upward strength at the time of writing.”
Bednarik adds: “The EUR/USD pair bottomed at around 1.1775 earlier in the week, making the 1.1760-1.1770 area the immediate downward barrier. A slide below the level exposes the 1.1700 threshold, en route to the 1.1640 price zone. Bulls will be looking for a recovery beyond 1.1920 to add longs, aiming for a test of the 1.2000 mark.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Initial Jobless Claims increased to 231K vs. 209K in the previous week.
- Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.844M
The number of United States (US) citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31. The latest print came in short of initial estimates (212K) and was higher than the previous week’s unrevised 209K, according to the US Department of Labour (DOL) report released on Thursday.
Additionally, the 4-week moving average increased by 6,000, bringing it to 212.25K from the unrevised average of the previous week (206K).
The report also indicated that Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 25K to 1.844M for the week ending January 24. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since October 5, 2024.
Market Reaction:
The US Dollar (USD) was largely unchanged, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading near 97.70.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | 0.52% | -0.17% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.10% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | 0.54% | -0.15% | 0.10% | 0.36% | 0.12% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | -0.52% | -0.54% | -0.68% | -0.47% | -0.20% | -0.41% | -0.79% | |
| JPY | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.68% | 0.24% | 0.54% | 0.28% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.47% | -0.24% | 0.31% | 0.06% | -0.32% | |
| AUD | -0.34% | -0.36% | 0.20% | -0.54% | -0.31% | -0.24% | -0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.12% | 0.41% | -0.28% | -0.06% | 0.24% | -0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.79% | 0.07% | 0.32% | 0.61% | 0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Governor Andrew Bailey took questions from reporters, offering markets a clearer sense of how the central bank was thinking. His remarks followed the widely expected decision to keep the policy rate on hold at 3.75%.
BoE Bailey press conference highlights
Disinflation is on track and is running ahead of the schedule expected in November.
Recent developments provide more confidence that inflation is on track to return to the target soon.
It is necessary to ensure that inflation falls all the way back to 2% and stays there.
The economy is not currently facing a situation in which monetary policy is being hit by big new shocks.
There should be scope for some further easing of policy.
Services inflation and wage growth need to fall further for the MPC to be confident that inflation will return to target and remain there.
The upside risk to inflation has continued to diminish.
New Bank staff analysis provides reassurance that structural changes in wage setting will not continue to add to inflation pressure.
Judgements around further rate cuts will become a closer call.
Cutting Bank Rate too quickly or by too much could risk inflation pressure persisting.
Waiting too long, on the other hand, could lead to a sharper downturn in activity.
There should be scope for some further easing in the period ahead, if the outlook evolves as expected.
For every rate cut, the question of how much further to go becomes a closer call.
We need to see more evidence that inflation is on track for a sustainable return to the target.
We have to be very focused on the underlying inflation story.
We expect inflation to move down in the next release.
Falling inflation should feed into expectations, and that should give me confidence.
I think the market curve is in a fairly reasonable place.
It does not condition the timing or scale of future policy moves.
I would not endorse 3.25% as a terminal rate, but the market curve is reasonable.
Market conditions are entirely orderly today.
This section below was published at 12:00 GMT to cover the Bank of England's policy announcements and the initial market reaction.
At its February meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) held the policy rate at 3.75%, as markets had anticipated. The vote, however, exposed a split on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as four members supported a 25-basis-point cut.
BoE policy statement takeaways
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, speaking after the February policy decision:
All going well, there should be scope for some further reduction in Bank Rate this year.
This does not mean I expect to cut Bank Rate at any particular meeting.
I expect CPI inflation to fall to around 2% in the spring, but we need to ensure it stays there.
Bank of England policy statement and Monetary Policy Report
- Policymakers voted 5–4 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor preferring a 25 basis point cut.
- The risk of greater inflation persistence has become less pronounced, although some downside risks from weaker demand and a looser labour market remain.
- Judgements around further policy easing will become a closer call.
- Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further.
Internal debate and guidance
- Greene, Lombardelli and Pill judged that a more prolonged period of policy restriction may be needed due to inflation risks.
- Bailey and Mann said they have greater confidence that rates will be cut, but that there is not yet enough evidence to act.
Updated forecasts and market pricing
- The forecast shows CPI returning to the 2% target in Q3 2026, earlier than previously expected.
- Inflation is projected at 1.7% in one year’s time and 1.8% in two years’ time, before returning to 2.0% in three years.
- Market rates imply slightly more near-term policy loosening than previously assumed, with the Bank Rate seen at 3.3% in Q4 2026.
- GDP growth is estimated at 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2025 and 0.3% QoQ in Q1 2026, with growth seen at 0.9% in 2026.
- Wage growth of around 3.25% is judged to be consistent with the 2% inflation target.
Market reaction to BoE policy announcements
Following the BoE event, GBP/USD keeps its bearish trend well in place, navigating the area of two-week lows in the 1.3560 region. Cable’s pullback also comes in tandem with the continuation of the upbeat mood in the US Dollar.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.65% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.05% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.65% | -0.57% | -0.43% | -0.53% | -0.45% | -0.52% | -0.62% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.09% | 0.43% | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.07% | -0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.45% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.05% | 0.52% | 0.07% | -0.00% | 0.07% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.62% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision at 07:00 GMT.
- The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75%.
- UK inflation figures remain well above the BoE’s target.
- GBP/USD regains part of last week’s losses, hovering around 1.3700.
The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday.
Most analysts think the ‘Old Lady’ will sit tight, keeping the base rate at 3.75% after the cut delivered back on December 18. Alongside the decision, the bank will also release the Minutes, which should shed a bit more light on how policymakers weighed the arguments around the table.
Markets are firmly priced for no move this time. However, the case for further easing hasn’t gone away, even if the BoE chooses to stay patient for now, as the UK economy struggles to gain any real traction and the fiscal backdrop continues to darken.
Inflation keeps running hot
The BoE’s December rate cut was a close-run thing. The 25 basis point move, which took the bank rate down to 3.75%, was carried by a narrow 5–4 vote. Indeed, members Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor all backed a cut, but it was Governor Bailey’s switch that proved decisive, underlining just how finely balanced the debate around further easing has become.
The message from the guidance was still cautiously dovish but noticeably more conditional. Policymakers stuck with the idea that rates are likely to move lower over time, describing a “gradual downward path”, while making it clear that each additional cut will be harder to justify. As policy drifts closer to neutral, the room for manoeuvre is shrinking, and the judgement calls are getting tougher.
The macro backdrop allows for further easing, but not with haste. Growth momentum has faded, with the economy expected to flatline in Q4, and inflation is projected to fall back more quickly in the near term, moving closer to the target by mid-2026. At the same time, lingering inflation bumps and a labour market that is only cooling slowly argue against flagging an aggressive cut cycle.
All told, December looks less like the start of a rush to ease and more like a careful recalibration. The Bank is still edging in an easier direction, but with rising caution as rates approach neutral and decisions become ever more dependent on incoming data.
According to the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP) published on January 8, businesses are growing a touch less punchy on pay, as firms now expect wages to rise by 3.7% over the 12 months from the final quarter of 2025, a shade lower than the pace they were expecting just a month earlier.
Additionally, companies are reducing their expectations for price increases in the upcoming year, which resulted in a 0.1 percentage point decrease to 3.6% in the three months to December.
And it’s not just wages and prices. Firms have also become slightly more cautious on hiring, with expectations for employment growth over the next year softening a little, according to the survey.
How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?
Many people expect the BoE will keep the reference rate at 3.75% when it makes its announcement on Thursday at 12:00 GMT.
The real focus will be on how the MPC votes, since a hold is already fully priced in. If the British Pound (GBP) moves in a way that isn't expected, it could be because it suggests a change in how policymakers are getting ready for future decisions.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD has come under fresh downside pressure soon after hitting yearly peaks near 1.3870 in late January, an area last traded in September 2021.
“Once Cable clears this level, it could then attempt a move to the September 2021 high at 1.3913 (September 14) ahead of the July 2021 peak at 1.3983 (July 30)”, Piovano adds.
On the other hand, Piovano says that “the critical 200-day SMA at 1.3421 emerges as the immediate contention in case sellers regain the upper hand prior to the 2026 floor at 1.3338 (January 19).”
“Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 61 suggests further gains remain in the pipeline in the near term, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 30 indicates a pretty strong trend,” he concludes.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Yen remains weak despite significant undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity and an improved balance of payments. They suggest that concerns regarding the government's ability to maintain a downtrend in the debt-to-GDP ratio are overblown. Improved confidence in fiscal management after upcoming elections is expected to help USD/JPY drop towards the mid-140s in 2026.
Yen weakness and fiscal management outlook
"The yen has remained weak despite extreme undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity and an improvement in the country’s balance of payments."
"We think the concerns about the government’s ability to maintain the recent downtrend in the country’s debt /GDP ratio are overdone."
"Improved confidence in fiscal management after the upcoming elections in Japan should help USD/JPY drop back towards the mid-140s in 2026 and we see room for a faster fall in EUR/JPY."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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