Forex News
- USD/JPY trades flat as intervention risks offset support from the wide US-Japan yield gap.
- The Japanese Yen finds support after Atsushi Mimura renewed warnings over excessive currency weakness.
- US-Iran diplomacy and upcoming US economic data remain in focus as markets price another possible Fed rate hike in October.
USD/JPY trades little changed around 157.25 on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) also holds steady near recent highs, with traders weighing Middle East developments and the risk of Japanese intervention.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened earlier in the day after Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, renewed warnings about the currency’s weakness. Mimura said markets should take “at face value” the “very clear message” sent by Japan and the United States. He said he was neither satisfied nor reassured by the Yen’s recent moves, but declined to comment on whether Tokyo would intervene again. Mimura also said he had no concerns about Japan’s ability to fund further action in the currency market.
Mimura’s remarks suggest that Japanese officials remain prepared to intervene after earlier episodes in April and July. Traders are likely to stay cautious as USD/JPY moves closer to the 160 level.
On the US-Iran front, a US official told Al Jazeera that Washington continues to hold “positive discussions” with Iran through intermediaries, but said any agreement must address the nuclear issue. CNN reported that President Donald Trump is open to easing sanctions in exchange for “concrete progress” on nuclear matters.
Al Hadath reported on Monday, citing sources, that Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief from the United States. The report has not been independently confirmed. Progress in negotiations could ease concerns about Oil prices and inflation. Until then, markets continue to assess energy-driven inflation risks, keeping bond yields elevated across major economies as traders weigh the prospect of further tightening by global central banks.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen toward 3.1%, its highest level since 1996. The wide yield gap and expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes continue to favour the US Dollar, even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains on a gradual tightening path.
The CME Fedwatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of another rate increase in October, following the central bank’s 25-basis-point (bps) hike at its September 15-16 meeting. Traders now await this week’s US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report on Wednesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | -0.32% | -0.05% | 0.19% | -0.05% | -0.29% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | -0.29% | -0.14% | 0.10% | -0.16% | -0.28% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.32% | 0.29% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.14% | -0.15% | 0.20% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.36% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.37% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.16% | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.26% | -0.13% | 0.40% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | 0.28% | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.37% | 0.13% | 0.53% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.52% | -0.38% | -0.15% | -0.40% | -0.53% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) has stated the week with slight gains, resuming its recent uptrend and leaving behind Friday’s hiccup. In the meantime, further tightening by the Fed remains at the centre of almost every debate, while re-escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to lend support to the buck and limit any potential declines.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 29:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has managed to keep the trade just above the 101.00 barrier, helped by the unabated move higher in US Treasury yields across the spectrum. The FHFA’s House Price Index will be released along with JOLTs Job Openings, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge and the API’s weekly report on US crude inventories. In addition, the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem and Williams are due to speak.
EUR/USD has rapidly faded Friday’s uptick and refocused on the lower end of its range, revisiting the area of multi-week troughs near 1.1350. The final print of the EMU’s Consumer Confidence is due, followed by Consumer Inflation Expectations tracked by the European Commission. Additionally, the ECB’s Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde and Vujčić will also speak.
GBP/USD has added to Friday’s advance, reaching new three-day highs around 1.3280. The BRC Shop Price Inflation kicks off the calendar across the Channel, followed by the BoE’s Mortgage Approvals/Lending, M4 Money Supply, Consumer Credit and Net Lending to Individuals.
USD/JPY has traded without clear direction in the low 157.00s, with bears struggling to extend Friday’s severe pullback. Japan will only see the release of the final Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes.
AUD/USD has started the week in an irresolute mode, challenging once again the 0.7000 contention zone. The RBA is widely anticipated to hike its OCR at its meeting. Data-wise, Household Spending figures will also be released.
Front-month WTI futures have trimmed their initial move past the 96.00 mark per barrel, stabilising below $93.00 amid the resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the US-Iran-Hormuz conflict.
Gold has retreated to levels last seen in early August near the $4,100 mark per troy ounce following the better tone in the US Dollar and the strong rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve.
- US 10-year yield hits 5.274%, its highest since June 2007.
- Curve flattens as investors price in additional Fed tightening.
- GDP, Core PCE and NFP headline this week’s catalysts.
US Treasury yields climb on Monday as energy prices remain high, amid US President Donald Trump's rejection of a peace agreement with Tehran. Also, investors are pricing in further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tackle high inflation above the central bank’s 2% goal, which is another reason for investors demanding a higher premium on US debt.
Energy risks and Fed tightening bets keep pressure on US debt
The US 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since June 2007 at 5.274%, before trimming some of its gains to 5.247%, up over eight basis points.
In the meantime, contradictory US-Iran news headlines keep financial markets volatile. News that Iran agreed to halt its uranium enrichment program, reported by Al Hadath, was followed by Al Arabiya reporting that the chances of an agreement between the two countries are extremely slim, according to a US source involved in negotiations with Tehran.
Fed speaking is keeping US Treasury yields higher as well. Governor Lisa Cook was hawkish, expecting continued inflationary pressures in the coming months from AI and hostilities in the Middle East.
Consequently, traders still see a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the October meeting. Although it seems like a coin flip, the December meeting is almost certain, with odds of 94%, according to Prime Terminal data.
Meanwhile, the US 30-year bond yield is up almost 7 basis points to 5.559%.
Worth noting that the yield differential between the US 10-year and the US 2-year narrowed to as low as 17 basis points, an indication that a possible yield curve inversion looms, as it flattens on expectations of further tightening.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature GDP data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and September’s US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
US 10-year Treasury yield
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- WTI spikes toward $95.00 on Trump's Iran rejection, then slips back near $91.50.
- Saudi East-West pipeline flows back near 3.5 million barrels a day, half its capacity.
- 132 ships through Hormuz in the week to September 27, up from 116.
President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day plan for the Strait of Hormuz lifted Crude Oil to its best level since Thursday, and the whole rise was gone after a Saudi pipeline restart and a US offer of sanctions relief. Crude Oil sits near $91.50 on Monday, back where Friday's session left it, which puts the net value of a weekend of diplomacy and a restarted pipeline at zero so far.
Both sides want the same deal in the opposite order
Iran's plan reopens the strait at the end of seven days if Washington first lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, drops sanctions on Iranian barrels and releases frozen assets, with nuclear talks to follow. President Trump called it unacceptable on Saturday, and US Ambassador to the United Nations Waltz said Tehran was asking for everything up front. In an interview on Sunday, President Trump said the terms were ones Washington might have accepted about a year ago, when there was no war, no blockade and no strait to reopen.
On Monday, a US official said President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and release frozen assets in exchange for concrete nuclear progress, and that the two sides are apart on timing and on who moves first. Either order ends with Iranian barrels back on the water and more tankers through Hormuz, which is the downside for Crude Oil. That's why the price moves on whichever side looks closer to going first rather than on whether a deal exists.
Iran's nuclear offer has three versions since Friday
A senior Iranian official said on Friday there would be no nuclear flexibility even if Washington accepted the plan. Sources the same day described an offer to send Iran's most enriched uranium to a third country, and a Saudi broadcaster reported on Monday, citing sources, that Iran has agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. A halt is the step that would unlock relief and put Iran's exports back in play, so it's the version that matters most for Crude Oil and the one with the thinnest sourcing. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said on Sunday that the country is fully prepared for the war to resume.
Hormuz moved a pre-war day's traffic in a week
Saudi Arabia resumed exports through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu on Monday, ending a 17-day halt after drone damage earlier in the month. Flows are near 3.5 million barrels a day against capacity of about 7 million, and those barrels reach buyers without passing Hormuz or waiting on anyone in Washington or Tehran. A full return could take about six weeks, which lands in the week after the midterms.
Saudi Arabia also sent more cargoes through the strait itself, taking total exports to a wartime high above 5 million barrels a day in September. Ship-tracking data counted 132 transits of Hormuz in the week to September 27, up from 116 the week before, against roughly 130 a day before the war began on February 28. Every extra cargo that reaches a refiner lowers what the next one is worth, and that erodes the premium Crude Oil carries for a strait that is still mostly shut.
The end of the war and the next round of strikes share a date
President Trump said earlier in September that the conflict should end soon after the November 3 midterms, with prices falling right after the vote. A US newspaper reported on Friday that he has told aides he expects strikes on Iran to resume after the election, and Ambassador Waltz called that anonymous reporting. Iranian officials were reported on Monday to be pessimistic about a deal before the midterms, while Iran's President Pezeshkian said on Thursday that Tehran wants one before the vote.
That gives the risk premium in Crude Oil an expiry date and no direction. A signed deal after November 3 takes it out, and a resumed bombing campaign on the same timetable puts more in. Until then each headline reprices the odds of one branch against the other, and a session that has run both ways and come back to Friday's level is about as accurate a reading of those odds as the market can offer.
Levels and bias
Resistance: Crude Oil sold off from just above $93.50 on Friday and never got back to it. Monday's spike stopped just above $95.00, short of Thursday's high near $96.00, and every rally since the September 15 peak near $102.00 has stopped lower than the one before it.
Support: Monday's low just above $90.00 comes first. Beneath it, the $88.50 area held on September 22 and September 23, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has risen into the same spot, so a break there takes out both.
Bias: The lean is short while $95.00 caps, with $90.00 the first objective and the $88.50 floor the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) is near 37 and still falling from above 80, so momentum has room left before the bottom of its range. A daily close above $96.00 ends the short case.
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech in Oakland, California, that the number and magnitude of future adjustments to the Fed funds rate will depend on inflation and labor market data.
Cook added that she expects to see continued inflation pressures build from AI and the US-Iran conflict.
Key highlights:
Number and magnitude of any future rate adjustments will be informed by inflation and labor market data, and the economy's reaction to the Fed's actions so far
Highly attentive to AI potentially causing a temporary rise in unemployment; Fed has limited tools, rate cuts could fuel inflation
Expect to see continued inflation pressure in coming months, from artificial intelligence and conflict in the Middle East
Hope pace of AI adoption will minimize net job losses
See some economy-wide pressure from AI-fueled demand
Those gains will not come in time to offset broadening inflation this year; signs of broadening pressure in inflation data
Limited evidence to date that al is changing labor market structure
Fed would have limited tools to help in such a case. Lowering rates could fuel inflation
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | -0.30% | -0.06% | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.36% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.28% | -0.18% | 0.03% | -0.19% | -0.37% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | 0.28% | 0.10% | 0.31% | 0.08% | -0.09% | 0.51% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.18% | -0.10% | 0.20% | -0.04% | -0.21% | 0.41% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.42% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.19% | -0.08% | 0.04% | 0.26% | -0.18% | 0.43% | |
| NZD | 0.36% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.42% | 0.18% | 0.62% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.51% | -0.41% | -0.18% | -0.43% | -0.62% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Al Jazeera reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and to unfreeze its assets in exchange for progress on nuclear talks.
Additionally, an X post from Barak Ravid, an Axios correspondent, said that a US official told him that “President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds for concrete progress on nuclear.”
Market’s reaction
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is reversing its course after posting gains of more than 3%, edging towards its opening price.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) trimmed its earlier gains of over 0.20%, and trades at 101.12, up 0.09%.
- Gold price (XAU/USD) bounced from around $4,110 lows to $4,136, but it remains posting losses of over 3.45%.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets FX Strategy team notes that USD net long speculative positions were broadly unchanged, with both longs and shorts rising modestly. The Federal Reserve raised its overnight policy rate by 25bp on September 16, matching expectations. The OIS curve indicates investors still anticipate more than three Fed hikes by the end of next year.
Fed path keeps Dollar supported
"USD net longs are largely unchanged as both long and short positions increased by 2,000 positions, respectively."
"The Fed released its decision to hike the overnight policy rate by 25bp at the September 16 meeting, in line with market expectations."
"The OIS curve suggest investors are still positioned for more than three hikes by the end of next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- GBP/USD edges higher despite surging Treasury yields and a firmer US Dollar.
- Oil rally strengthens BoE tightening bets as inflation risks rise.
- Yield-curve inversion concerns grow as Fed hike expectations intensify.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains of 0.18% on Monday even as US Treasury yields soar, with the US 10-year T-note rising over 10 basis points, underpinning the Greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3252.
Sterling holds gains as energy shock revives UK tightening expectations
The pair rose as high as 1.3280 on Monday, but as US-Iran peace hopes faded and Oil prices rose, the US Dollar (USD) is recovering ground, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck against six currencies, is up 0.15% to 101.18, near a three-day high. As mentioned, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, is up more than 3% at $95.41 per barrel.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump declined Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring an end to the Middle East conflict. He warned that attacks could resume after the US midterm elections, pushing Oil prices even higher.
US bond yields are also on the move, with the US 10-year benchmark note rising to 5.261% as investors grow confident the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its tightening cycle.
Worth noting, a Bloomberg article, “An inversion of the US yield curve becomes new risk as Fed hikes,” noted that bond traders are demanding a higher premium on the 2-year note, narrowing the yield differential with the 10-year, a prelude to a possible inversion of the curve. This means investors are demanding a higher short-term yield; they are pricing in Fed rate hikes, which would usually slow the economy as the Fed tames high inflation.
Historically, yield inversion has proved to be a good signal for forecasting recessions, dating back to 1960. But this decade failed during the COVID pandemic.
Aside from this, Sterling was boosted as investors saw rising energy prices in the UK as a reason to expect further tightening by the Bank of England. (BoE). Last week, Governor Andrew Bailey said that high energy prices would make the bank work harder to keep interest rates unchanged. Recently, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden commented that if upside inflation pressures build, it could be grounds for raising rates.
In the meantime, traders are eyeing the release of the UK Autumn Budget on October 28. UK’s finance minister John Healey is set to speak at the Labour Party's annual conference on Monday.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3255, keeping a bearish near‑term bias as spot holds below the cluster of key moving average and trend‑line levels. The 50/100/200-day simple moving average (SMA) pack converging near 1.3462 now acts as overhead resistance, while several previously supportive rising trend lines, broken around 1.3528 and 1.3732, reinforce the notion of a market capped beneath former structural floors. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 30 suggests the pair is approaching oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum may be stretched even as price remains pressured under these topside barriers.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the downtrend line break zone near 1.3322, followed by the more recent descending resistance trend line around 1.3440. Above there, the confluent 50/100/200-day SMAs at roughly 1.3462 form a dense cap, with the higher broken support trend levels at 1.3528 and 1.3732 marking subsequent barriers if a corrective rebound extends. On the downside, the lack of nearby mapped structural supports leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely to look for a fresh basing pattern or new horizontal lows before considering a more sustained recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | -0.21% | 0.08% | 0.22% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.36% | |
| EUR | -0.22% | -0.26% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.21% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.53% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.13% | -0.17% | 0.10% | -0.02% | -0.12% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.27% | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.24% | 0.24% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | 0.11% | -0.15% | 0.02% | 0.14% | -0.11% | 0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | 0.21% | -0.06% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.11% | 0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.36% | -0.15% | -0.53% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.38% | -0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold falls over 3% as traders weigh rising Oil prices, higher US yields and the prospect of another Fed rate hike.
- Traders look to US PCE inflation, ISM PMI and NFP data due this week for fresh clues on the Fed’s next move.
- XAU/USD trades below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, while the RSI approaches oversold territory.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under strong selling pressure on Monday, down over 3.5% as elevated Oil prices reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,121, its lowest level since August 5.
Oil prices have remained volatile since late February, when the United States (US) and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, triggering a war in the Middle East and disrupting supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the strait within seven days. However, Trump told Axios that he expects US negotiators to hold further talks this week. Reuters also reported, citing a source briefed on the negotiations, that mediators are expected to hold separate talks with US and Iranian officials on Monday or Tuesday. The discussions are set to focus on an amended version of Iran’s seven-day proposal.
Gold has gained little from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge since the outbreak of the war. The precious metal is down about 27% from its January all-time high near $5,600, with interest-rate expectations remaining the main driver. Elevated Oil prices have pushed global bond yields to multi-year highs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metal. The 10-year US Treasury yield advances to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007.
Traders are pricing in additional monetary policy tightening by the Fed after the central bank delivered a 25-basis-point (bps) hike at its September 15-16 meeting, its first in three years. Following a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials last week, markets see a 70% chance of a rate hike in October, according to CME FedWatch.
The hawkish Fed outlook and rising Treasury yields keep the US Dollar near recent highs, adding further pressure on Gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.22.
A packed US economic calendar could give Gold fresh direction this week. Traders will assess Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation due Wednesday, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, as well as comments from Fed officials, for clues on the central bank’s next move.
Technical Analysis: Bears retain control below key moving averages
On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), while the longer-term 200-day SMA remains further overhead.
Momentum reinforces the downside tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping toward oversold territory at 35 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator firmly below zero, hinting that rallies are likely to be capped by the clustered moving-average resistance.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 100-day SMA at $4,298, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,320, both capping recovery attempts before the more distant 200-day SMA at $4,540. A higher barrier emerges at the horizontal resistance level at $4,700.
On the downside, with XAU/USD already below $4,150, the next support lies near $4,000. A decisive break below that level could extend the current bearish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Silver slides to its lowest level since early August as the US Dollar and Treasury yields climb.
- XAG/USD remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, with all three averages acting as resistance.
- The RSI points to bearish momentum as Silver tests Fibonacci support near $61.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls around 5% on Monday, slipping to its lowest level since early August. A stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields weigh on the non-yielding metal as the US-Iran stalemate keeps Oil prices elevated, strengthening expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $61.08.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds near 101.25, close to a two-month high. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Silver, while a firmer US Dollar makes the metal more expensive for overseas buyers.
Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of another rate hike in October, according to CME FedWatch, after the central bank raised rates by 25 basis points at its September 15-16 meeting. Traders now turn to a busy week of US data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report on Wednesday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, XAG/USD remains under a dense cap of moving averages, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.88, the 100-day SMA at $65.65 and the 200-day SMA at $73.19 all acting as overhead resistance, which maintains a bearish near-term bias.
Price is hovering just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $61.02, hinting at a fragile pivot area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 leans toward bearish momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays negative, reinforcing downside pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $62.95, followed by the 50-day SMA at $63.88 and the 38.2% retracement at $64.87, with the 100-day SMA at $65.65 and the 23.6% level at $67.26 marking higher barriers before the $71.12 anchor and the 200-day SMA at $73.19. On the downside, immediate support is found at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $61.02, ahead of the 78.6% level at $58.27 and the prior cycle low near $54.77, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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