Forex News
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that USD/SGD fell into the New York close, helped by a sharp Brent decline and a pullback in USD/JPY, easing immediate inflation and yield concerns. They stress that the move looks more like relief than reversal, keeps a bias to sell rallies, and highlight support at 1.2720/1.2680 and resistance around 1.2760/1.2770 and 1.2850.
Relief-driven dip but not full reversal
"USD/SGD fell into Fri NY close, consistent with our call to sell rallies."
"Nevertheless, the move lower should be seen more as a relief than a full reversal."
"Geopolitical headlines remain fluid, and any renewed spike in oil price could quickly revive concerns over inflation, growth and broader risk sentiment."
"Markets are expected to keep a close eye on US-Iran developments (for implications on oil prices and sentiment) and if USD/JPY’s decline has more room to run."
"Pair was last at 1.2730 levels. Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias for now. 2-way trades likely in the interim; bias remains to sell rallies"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, May 5:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds a firm tone near the 98.40 price zone, supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing Middle East hostilities that keep markets cautious, with headlines suggesting that Iran allegedly attacked a United States (US) military ship despite US denials. These activities are fueling uncertainty, limiting risk appetite, and underpinning the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.42% | 0.41% | 0.22% | |
| EUR | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.03% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.30% | -0.06% | -0.26% | -0.10% | 0.16% | 0.12% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.11% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.11% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.42% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.34% | -0.24% | -0.04% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.22% | 0.04% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | -0.22% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.14% | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.18% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD trades with a soft tone near the 1.700 price zone, struggling to gain traction amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) that caps upside attempts amid cautious market sentiment.
GBP/USD also drifts lower near the 1.3540 zone, pressured by a firmer Greenback as traders avoid aggressive positioning ahead of key global catalysts.
USD/JPY edges slightly higher near the 157.10 level, supported by safe-haven flows into the USD, although the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains somewhat resilient due to its own safe-haven appeal.
AUD/USD slides near the 0.7170 area, holding a cautious tone ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decision. The RBA is widely expected to deliver a 25-bps rate hike, which could lift the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%. While expectations of tighter policy support the Aussie, geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength are capping gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices remain elevated near the $105.00 per barrel as Middle East problems keep concerns about supply disruptions alive, adding to inflation worries and supporting commodity-linked narratives.
Gold prices fell toward the $4,524, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek protection against escalating risks and unclear global developments.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, May 5:
- Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- Australian RBA Rate Statement
- Chinese Consumer Price Index April MoM YoY
- US S&P PMIS April
- US ISM Services PMIS
- US JOLTS Job Openings March
- US New Home Sales February and March MoM
- New Zealand Employment data
Wednesday, May 6:
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI April
- Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Services PMI April
- Eurozone Producer Price Index March MoM YoY
- US ADP Employment Change April
- Canadian Ivey PMI April
- Japanese Labor Cash Earnings March YoY
- Japanese BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thursday, May 7:
- Australian Trade Balance
- Germany Factory Orders March MoM YoY
- Eurozone Retail Sales March MoM YoY
- US Challenger Job Cuts April
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Nonfarm Productivity Q1 Prel
- US Unit Labor Costs Q1 Prel
Friday, May 8:
- Germany Industrial Production March MoM YoY
- Eurozone Trade Balance March
- Canadian Employment data
- US NFP report
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Bearish engulfing pattern signals a reversal after a failed rally attempt.
- RSI in bearish territory confirms downside momentum gaining strength.
- Break below $70.86 exposes $70.00 and $68.28 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) tumbles over 3% on Monday as the US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, as the US Navy embarks on Donald Trump’s 'Operation Freedom'. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $72.74 after reaching a high of $76.00.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
After extending its gains last Friday, XAG/USD erased those gains, forming a ‘bearish engulfing’ chart pattern, which, once confirmed, would open the door for further downside.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is bearish, leaving bullish traders exposed to further losses if Silver dips below the latest cycle low of $70.86, the April 20 swing low. If surpassed, the next stop would be the $70.00 milestone, followed by the April’s month low of $68.28.
Looking upwards, XAG’s buyers must clear the $73.00 mark if they want to remain hopeful of higher prices. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the May 4 high of $76.98, followed by the $78.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note Indonesia’s April inflation slowed to 2.42% year-on-year, below expectations but within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target. They highlight post-holiday normalization, contained energy inflation thanks to subsidized fuel, and steady core inflation. They see upside risks from higher global Oil prices but expect Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate at 4.75% while coordinating with government on food prices.
Inflation eases but energy risks linger
"Indonesia’s inflation eased further in Apr to 2.42% y/y, down from 3.48% in March, coming in below market expectations (2.70%) while remaining comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range of 2.5% ±1.0%."
"Overall, Apr inflation moderated post-holiday effects, with volatility contained despite global tensions from Middle East war."
"Risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly from higher energy prices, as rising Brent crude prices could lift logistics and transport costs significantly, feeding indirectly into both core and food inflation."
"The government is expected to focus on controlling logistics costs and food prices in coordination with BI through the Movement for Inflation and Food Prosperity (GPIPS)."
"Looking ahead, stable inflation provides BI with room to maintain its policy rate at 4.75%, even at the expense of a weaker rupiah (see Indonesia: Reserves fall on sustained FX intervention), in support of the government’s expansionary fiscal stance."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Joachim Nagel, member of the European Central Bank (ECB) and President of the Bundesbank, spoke in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on Monday. He said that the longer the Middle East conflict lasts, the greater the risk of high inflation will reimain without ECB intervention.
Key takeaways:
The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the risk that inflation will remain high without ECB intervention.
Starting point much better than in 2022.
June rate hike may be warranted if the inflation outlook does not improve significantly.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.25% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.08% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.22% | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.08% | -0.30% | -0.19% | 0.14% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.11% | 0.19% | -0.08% | 0.31% | 0.30% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.14% | -0.38% | -0.31% | -0.03% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.11% | -0.39% | -0.30% | 0.03% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.25% | 0.01% | 0.08% | -0.17% | -0.11% | 0.21% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying upgrades Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 7.0%, citing stronger-than-expected AI-driven exports and resilient ICT demand. The report notes robust first-quarter GDP and expects quarterly growth to moderate later in 2026. It also highlights LNG supply constraints, higher energy costs, and potential power rationing as key macro risks.
AI-led boom faces energy constraints
"We revise up Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.4% from 7.0%, which would mark the strongest expansion since the post-GFC rebound in 2010."
"The AI-driven global hardware cycle is expected to remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing to support demand for semiconductors, servers, and broader ICT exports."
"On a quarterly basis, GDP growth is likely to have peaked in 1Q and to gradually moderate thereafter."
"Non-ICT exports are likely to face increasing headwinds from a broader global demand slowdown."
"LNG supply remains a key structural constraint."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York, said in a prepared speech at the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium in New York, United States (US) on Monday, that there is no way to know yet how the Iran war impact will play out for the United States economy. He also claimed that US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy.
Key quotes:
US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy.
No way to know yet how Iran war impact will play out for US economy.
Risks to both sides of Fed's mandates have increased.
Economy is presenting 'unusual set of circumstances'.
Market energy outlook benign, but there are 'plausible' bad scenarios.
Inflation likely to be 3% this year, back to 2% target in 2027.
'Notable' supply chain disruptions emerging.
Tariffs and energy are big inflation drivers, underlying inflation mostly stable.
It's good that inflation expectations remain contained.
US economic growth expected between 2% and 2.25% this year.
Economy has been very resilient.
Jobless rate expected to stay around 4.25% to 4.50%.
In a time of uncertainty and economic shocks, it's natural to see diverging views on FOMC.
Dissents happen more in times of uncertainty, shows Fed grappling with issues.
More agreement about policy stance than FOMC vote might suggest.
There's been a huge shift in labor force growth in US.
Job market break even might range between zero and 50,000 jobs per month now.
The job market is holding up well so far.
We are not seeing longer term inflation expectations move much, that's encouraging.
In balance, job market is helping contain inflation.
Fed's job is to make sure inflation expectations hold steady.
Tariff-based inflation should ease.
R-star is likely higher than most recent low readings.
3% is likely long run Fed funds rate.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | 0.07% | -0.17% | -0.12% | 0.23% | 0.24% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.26% | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.14% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.19% | -0.00% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.04% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.48% | -0.24% | -0.14% | -0.32% | -0.31% | 0.04% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | 0.01% | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.11% | 0.24% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD weakens as renewed Middle East tensions boost US Dollar demand.
- Rising energy costs raise stagflation risks in the Eurozone.
- Traders increase Fed rate hike bets, with attention now on the upcoming NFP report.
The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as reports of renewed attacks in the Middle East lift the Greenback.
At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1690, down about 0.25% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.47, extending Friday’s rebound from near two-week lows.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) came under attack from Iran for the first time since a fragile ceasefire in early April. A fire was reported at a petroleum site in Fujairah following a drone strike, while the British military said two cargo vessels were ablaze off the UAE coast.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Fars news agency said two missiles struck a US naval vessel near the island of Jask after it allegedly ignored warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to halt. However, a US official denied that any American vessel had been hit, according to Axios.
The renewed escalation comes as Tehran appears to be asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval mission, dubbed “Project Freedom,” aimed at guiding stranded ships out of the waterway.
While diplomatic efforts to end the war are underway, the nuclear issue remains a key sticking point. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of further escalation, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices.
The surge in energy costs has already pushed inflation higher across major economies, prompting central banks to maintain a hawkish stance. In the US, traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting rising to around 33% from near zero a week ago.
On the Euro side, markets are pricing in at least two rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the central bank faces a difficult trade-off given the Eurozone’s high exposure to energy shocks, which raises the risk of stagflation and limits the ECB’s room to respond aggressively.
Against this backdrop, EUR/USD upside remains capped unless a clear resolution to the conflict emerges and leads to a decline in Oil prices. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on developments in the US-Iran situation, with attention also turning to upcoming US economic data, including Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence rate expectations.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.36% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.46% | 0.45% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.10% | 0.22% | 0.21% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.21% | -0.18% | 0.14% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.13% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.30% | -0.03% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.45% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.27% | -0.29% | 0.03% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.02% | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.23% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect robust external demand to support China’s April industrial production and trade, even as services and construction soften. They see higher Oil prices lifting PPI and energy CPI, while headline CPI stays at 1% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment is projected to remain subdued, with modest improvements in retail sales and credit growth.
External demand offsets domestic softness
"China’s official April manufacturing PMI stayed high at 50.3."
"Meanwhile, the services PMI fell below 50 and the construction PMI declined to a six-year low of 48, indicating soft domestic demand and still-subdued housing market activity."
"Amid still-strong global demand for AI and semiconductor-related products, industrial production (IP) growth likely accelerated to 6.2% y/y and export growth to 12% y/y."
"Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth may have remained stable at 1.6% y/y in 4M-2026, supported by solid equipment manufacturing and infrastructure investment."
"While pass-through of the sharp rise in international energy prices to the domestic market was alleviated by policy measures, China’s energy CPI inflation likely rose last month, offsetting the drop in food CPI and keeping headline CPI inflation at 1% y/y."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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