Forex News
- AUD/USD falls 0.27% below 0.6850 despite positive market sentiment.
- December Fed hike odds reach 87% for a 25-basis-point increase.
- RBA expected to pause tightening, with markets pricing 2027 rate cuts.
The Australian Dollar lost 0.27% against the US Dollar on Wednesday as market participants priced in further Federal Reserve tightening, amid a light economic docket in Australia and the US. The AUD/USD trades below 0.6850.
AUD/USD extends losses as persistent US inflation reinforces Fed rate hike expectations
Sentiment remains positive as US stocks post solid gains. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against a basket of six currencies, gains 0.67% to 102.91, retreating after hitting an 18-month high of 102.96.
The Greenback appreciated after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Tuesday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller comment that if core CPI rose by 0.3% could prompt him to support a 50-basis-point rate hike was fulfilled once the data was known.
Underlying inflation in October increased 0.3% MoM, for the third straight time. Headline CPI increased by 0.4% MoM, down from 0.6%, but above estimates of 0.3%.
Money markets had priced in an 87% chance of a 25 bps rate hike and a slim 13% chance that the Fed may go for a 50 bps hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Consequently, AUD/USD is edging lower, amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finished its tightening cycle and is poised to hold rates for the foreseeable future. In fact, the RBA is expected to cut rates by 28 basis points in 2027, according to Prime Terminal data.
Ahead, the Aussie economic docket will feature Consumer Inflation Expectations for November, with October’s print coming in at 5.3%, up from September’s 4.9%.
In the US, investors are preparing for Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims release, housing data and Fed speeches, ahead of Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI).
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6844, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well beneath the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7028 and a series of former rising trend lines that now act as overhead barriers. The break under the most recent rising support line, which now comes in as resistance near 0.6926, underscores persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 35 points to weak but not yet oversold momentum, suggesting sellers remain in control unless price can regain those broken structural levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the former rising trend line around 0.6926, ahead of the confluence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs near 0.7028; a daily close above this band would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure and open the way to 0.7135 and the horizontal barrier at 0.7198. On the downside, firm structural support does not emerge until the long-term descending trend line turned base around 0.6343, leaving the pair vulnerable to further grinding losses while it remains capped below the aforementioned resistance cluster.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.68% | 0.51% | 0.57% | 0.44% | 0.32% | 0.72% | 0.93% | |
| EUR | -0.68% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.24% | -0.36% | 0.03% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.51% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.19% | 0.20% | 0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.57% | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.25% | 0.14% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.44% | 0.24% | 0.09% | 0.15% | -0.09% | 0.28% | 0.47% | |
| AUD | -0.32% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.40% | 0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.72% | -0.03% | -0.20% | -0.14% | -0.28% | -0.40% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.93% | -0.22% | -0.39% | -0.34% | -0.47% | -0.61% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/JPY breaks out of a seven-week range to its highest since September 2.
- Fed and BoJ hikes expected in December would leave the rate gap unchanged.
- Japan reports October producer prices before the US figures on Friday.
The 160.00 level is within reach of USD/JPY for the first time since early September, with Fed speakers and US producer prices still to come before the weekend. USD/JPY has left the range it held for seven weeks and reached just under 160.00, its highest since September 2. It's trading a little below that high, near the top of Wednesday's range.
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat forecasts with a 0.4% rise, and Fed Governor Waller called a hike at the December 8-9 meeting likely. Futures now give a quarter-point move there odds near 90%. The Fed's rate is 3.75%-4.00% against 1.25% at the Bank of Japan (BoJ), a gap of at least two and a half points that pays holders of Dollars over Yen.
The BoJ is expected to move too. BoJ board member Takata voted for 1.50% in October's 8-1 decision, and most economists expect the rest to join him at the December 17-18 meeting. A quarter-point from each central bank nine days apart would leave the gap, and the reason to hold Dollars over Yen, exactly where it is.
On the calendar
Japan's October corporate goods prices are due at 23:50 GMT on Wednesday, and third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows at 23:50 GMT on Sunday. Both feed the BoJ's December decision, the Japanese side of the gap.
US jobless claims come at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, with 195K forecast against 189K, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack opens a day of six Fed speeches at 14:00 GMT. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October lands at the same hour on Friday, with a 0.4% rise forecast against September's 1.3%. With a quarter-point Fed move priced, both bear on whether a half-point is possible.
On the charts
The break takes USD/JPY above the 156.00-159.00 range it had held since late September, and it has recovered nearly all of the fall from the September 2 high near 160.50 to the September low near 153.00. The last two times it traded above 160.00, at the end of July and at the start of September, it fell more than five Yen within a week.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- GBP/USD falls for a second session in a row to its lowest since mid-October.
- Bets on a December Fed hike near 90% lift the Dollar after hot US inflation.
- UK third-quarter GDP is due Thursday, forecast up 0.7% after 0.5%.
Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday is forecast to show the UK economy growing faster, and GBP/USD goes into it at its lowest since mid-October. It has fallen for two sessions in a row, from just under 1.3450 at the start of Tuesday to just under 1.3300, and it's trading near the bottom of Wednesday's range.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than forecast, and Fed Governor Waller told a Bank of England (BoE) conference in London on Tuesday that a December hike is likely. Traders put a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9 near 90%. That would take the top of the Fed's rate to 4.25%, above the UK's Bank Rate at 4.00%, eight days before the BoE next meets.
The BoE raised the Bank Rate on November 5 in an 8-1 vote, its first hike in more than three years, and GBP/USD has fallen in four of the five sessions since. BoE external member Greene told the Financial Times on Wednesday that UK wage growth is too high and that tightening proactively is appropriate. That's a case for a second hike, made with GBP/USD well below where it was trading before the first.
On the calendar
The Office for National Statistics publishes third-quarter GDP at 07:00 GMT on Thursday, forecast up 0.7% on the quarter after 0.5% and up 1.9% on the year after 1.4%. September's monthly figure is forecast flat after 0.1%, and industrial production is forecast down 0.3% after a 0.8% rise. All of it feeds the BoE's December 17 decision, the UK side of the rate gap.
US jobless claims follow at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, forecast at 195K after 189K, and six Fed officials speak the same day, starting with Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 14:00 GMT. October producer prices are due at 13:30 GMT on Friday, forecast up 0.4% after 1.3%, the last inflation figure of the week before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting.
On the charts
The climb from the October 14 low near 1.3150 topped out at 1.3500 on November 4 and 5, and GBP/USD has since given back about three fifths of it. That puts it back at the top of the 1.3200-1.3300 band it traded in through the first half of October, before the rally began.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- NASDAQ climbs to its highest since November 4, with SPX and DJIA also up.
- Nvidia rebounds 2.9%, and Anthropic sets an IPO worth up to $1.4 trillion.
- Six Fed officials speak Thursday before October producer prices on Friday.
The more artificial intelligence (AI) a US index holds, the more of the fall that began on November 5 it has now recovered. The NASDAQ 100 touched just under 28,600, above where it started that session, and is trading near 28,400. The S&P 500, just above 7,600, has won back about four fifths of the fall, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, near 52,500, about three fifths.
CoreWeave (CRWV) is up nearly 25% after third-quarter revenue beat forecasts and it raised its 2026 revenue and operating income guidance. CoreWeave Chief Executive Intrator told CNBC its data centre build plans aren't being delayed, the worry that started the November 5 selling. Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO), which could value it at up to $1.4 trillion and is reported several times oversubscribed, adds demand for the AI stocks that weigh most in the NASDAQ 100.
Nvidia (NVDA) is up 2.9% after losing nearly 10% over Monday and Tuesday. Morgan Stanley dropped it as a top pick on Wednesday and the House China panel gave Nvidia Chief Executive Huang until the end of the business day to respond, and the stock rose anyway. Traders still put a quarter-point Fed hike in December near 90%, but the Treasury market is shut for Veterans Day, so no yields rose against the stock rally.
On the calendar
Six Fed officials speak on Thursday, from Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 14:00 GMT to New York Fed President Williams at 23:30 GMT. Hammack voted to raise rates in October, and with a quarter-point move on December 9 priced as close to certain, the speeches bear on whether it could be a half-point.
Initial jobless claims come at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, with 195K forecast after 189K. October's Producer Price Index (PPI) is due at 13:30 GMT on Friday, forecast up 0.4% on the month after 1.3% and up 6.6% on the year after 6.3%.
On the charts
The NASDAQ 100 has recovered more than a third of its fall from the October 6 high near 31,350 to the November 5 low near 26,600. The S&P 500 has recovered more than half of its drop from just below 7,850. The Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't fall with them in October: it climbed from near 50,500 on October 1 to just under 53,800 on November 5, and it's about 1,300 points under that high.
Nasdaq 100 index, daily
Nasdaq FAQs
The Nasdaq is a stock exchange based in the US that started out life as an electronic stock quotation machine. At first, the Nasdaq only provided quotations for over-the-counter (OTC) stocks but later it became an exchange too. By 1991, the Nasdaq had grown to account for 46% of the entire US securities’ market. In 1998, it became the first stock exchange in the US to provide online trading. The Nasdaq also produces several indices, the most comprehensive of which is the Nasdaq Composite representing all 2,500-plus stocks on the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100.
The Nasdaq 100 is a large-cap index made up of 100 non-financial companies from the Nasdaq stock exchange. Although it only includes a fraction of the thousands of stocks in the Nasdaq, it accounts for over 90% of the movement. The influence of each company on the index is market-cap weighted. The Nasdaq 100 includes companies with a significant focus on technology although it also encompasses companies from other industries and from outside the US. The average annual return of the Nasdaq 100 has been 17.23% since 1986.
There are a number of ways to trade the Nasdaq 100. Most retail brokers and spread betting platforms offer bets using Contracts for Difference (CFD). For longer-term investors, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) trade like shares that mimic the movement of the index without the investor needing to buy all 100 constituent companies. An example ETF is the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). Nasdaq 100 futures contracts allow traders to speculate on the future direction of the index. Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the Nasdaq 100 at a specific price (strike price) in the future.
Many different factors drive the Nasdaq 100 but mainly it is the aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual company earnings reports. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment, which if positive drives gains. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the Nasdaq 100 as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. As such the level of inflation can be a major driver too as well as other metrics which impact on the decisions of the Fed.
- Mexican Peso recovers as USD/MXN retreats toward 18.60.
- US Core CPI holds at 0.3% MoM, reinforcing Fed tightening expectations.
- Banxico signals prolonged rate hold at 6.25% despite rising Mexican inflation.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovered some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after losing 0.45% in the previous week, following a US inflation report that was higher than expected, which increased the odds of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 18.60, down 011%.
USD/MXN retreats toward 18.60 despite strong Dollar demand
US inflation in October exceeded forecasts, but headline CPI dipped from 0.6% to 0.4% MoM. Core figures remained steady for the third straight month at 0.3% MoM, above economists' estimates of 0.2% and aligned with Fed Governor Christopher Waller prediction that if underlying inflation hit 0.3%, he could opt for a 50-basis-point rate hike.
After the report, money markets increased their bets that the Fed will raise rates 25 basis points in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs see a quarter-percentage-point hike in December
Amid tightening expectations, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against six currencies, is up 0.69% to 102.91, having previously hit an 18-month high of 102.96.
On Monday, Mexico’s National Statistics Agency, known as INEGI, revealed that October’s inflation rose from 3.45% to 3.75% YoY, above forecasts. Excluding volatile items, rose by 3.8% YoY, exceeding estimates of 3.78%. Both readings suggest that the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) rate cut last week was unjustified, despite the Governing Board recognizing that inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
Banxico’s Governor Rodriguez Ceja commented that the board was considering cutting rates since October, she said in an interview with El Financiero. She added that after the cut, “maintaining the rate at its current level – 6.25% – for an extended period will support the convergence of inflation to the target and will be adequate to address external macroeconomic challenges.”
Ahead, the Mexican economic docket is quiet, with traders leaning on US dynamics. Across the northern border, the schedule will feature jobless claims, housing data, Fed speakers and producer inflation by the weekend.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 18.60, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds well above the triple simple moving average (SMA) cluster, now sitting near 18.01. The reclaim and extension above this medium-term trend proxy suggest dips remain supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 has eased from prior overbought extremes and now points to more balanced, but still constructive, momentum after the recent consolidation.
On the downside, the first support is located at the triple SMA area around 18.01, where a break would be needed to undermine the current positive structure and expose deeper losses. Below there, the next important floor emerges at the horizontal level of 16.89, which marks a more distant but notable demand zone; as long as price stays comfortably above these supports, the USD/MXN pair looks biased to extend higher once fresh resistance levels are established on the charts.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- GBP/JPY forms a potential bullish harami pattern, signaling renewed upside interest.
- Rising RSI supports recovery, but 212.92-213.02 SMA confluence limits gains.
- Break above 213.02 exposes 216.62 and psychological resistance at 217.00.
GBP/JPY trades choppily despite posting gains of 0.17% on Wednesday, with price action remaining within Tuesday’s daily range of 211.44-212.65, suggesting a potential ‘bullish harami’ or inside-day pattern forming near a key resistance area.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Of note, GBP/JPY bounced after testing a key support trendline near 211.33 on Monday, opening the door for a recovery. However, buyers remain reluctant to open fresh bets as key resistance emerged at the confluence of the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 212.92 and 213.02, respectively. If GBP/JPY clears the latter, the next stop is the September 2 high of 216.62, ahead of buyers testing the 217.00 mark,
On the downside, the first support for GBP/JPY is Monday's low of 211.33, followed by the psychological 211.00 level. The next stop is the 50-day SMA at 210.00.
From a momentum standpoint, further upside is seen as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, and aiming upwards.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.63% | 0.50% | 0.67% | 0.41% | 0.22% | 0.67% | 0.92% | |
| EUR | -0.63% | -0.12% | 0.05% | -0.22% | -0.40% | 0.05% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.50% | 0.12% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.28% | 0.17% | 0.42% | |
| JPY | -0.67% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.26% | -0.44% | 0.02% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.26% | -0.18% | 0.27% | 0.51% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | 0.40% | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.18% | 0.45% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.67% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.45% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.92% | -0.29% | -0.42% | -0.25% | -0.51% | -0.70% | -0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- EUR/USD slips below 1.1100, awaiting the daily close to confirm the breakdown.
- Bearish RSI approaches oversold territory, reinforcing persistent selling pressure.
- Sustained break below 1.1100 exposes 1.1050, 1.1000 and 1.0951.
The EUR/USD pair extends its losses below 1.1100 on Wednesday as traders digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish comments, which have increased the odds of a rate hike. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1092, its lowest level since May 2025.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD cleared a key support level, but a daily close below 1.1100 would be required, potentially paving the way for further losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and trending towards oversold territory, indicating that sellers are in control.
If EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, a move toward the May 23, 2025, swing low of 1.1050 is on the cards. The next stop is the 1.1000 psychological level, followed by the May 12, 2025, low of the day (LOD) at 1.0951.
On the upside, the first resistance is 1.1100. Once hurdled, the next stop is the day’s high of 1.1170, ahead of 1.1200. Key resistance lies above at 1.1273 on November 4, followed by 1.1300.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.67% | 0.54% | 0.69% | 0.42% | 0.25% | 0.71% | 0.98% | |
| EUR | -0.67% | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.25% | -0.42% | 0.05% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | -0.54% | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.29% | 0.16% | 0.44% | |
| JPY | -0.69% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.43% | 0.04% | 0.30% | |
| CAD | -0.42% | 0.25% | 0.13% | 0.27% | -0.16% | 0.30% | 0.57% | |
| AUD | -0.25% | 0.42% | 0.29% | 0.43% | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.74% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.46% | 0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.98% | -0.31% | -0.44% | -0.30% | -0.57% | -0.74% | -0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold slips below $4,000, extending losses for a second day.
- US Core CPI holds at 0.3% MoM, exceeding expectations for a third month.
- December Fed hike odds reach 87% as US Treasury yields hit 5%.
Gold (XAU/USD) price extends losses for the second straight day on Wednesday as traders fully price in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report and hawkish comments by Fed policymakers. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,999, down 0.70%.
Gold extends losses due to high US inflation, surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed rhetoric
Inflation data in the United States (US) exceeded forecasts, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.4% MoM in October, down from 0.6% but above the 0.3% estimate. However, the focal point was underlying CPI, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that he would prefer a 50 bps rate hike if core inflation reached 0.3%. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM for the third consecutive month, above estimates of 0.2%, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 bps rate increase at the December meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants price in an 87% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, and a slim 13% chance of a 0.50% hike.
Consequently, bullion prices edged lower, as the non-yielding metal tends to fare well amid lower interest rate scenarios.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 12 basis points to 5%, a tailwind for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the buck against a basket of six currencies, is up 0.67% at 102.90, a yearly high.
Other Fed officials were hawkish, with Philadelphia Fed Anna Paulson saying that the “Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens,” while Dallas Fed Lorie Logan added that it’s possible to hike rates “more rapidly.”
Conversely, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid adopted a more cautious approach, though both stressed that inflation is high. Bowman said that persistent inflation suggests there is more work to do, while Schmid said that there are concerning price trends, excluding the whole energy story.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims, housing data and Fed speeches on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI).
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold tumbles beneath $4,000, further downside eyed
Gold has cleared the $4,000 threshold, with five-day lows in sight, as sellers gain momentum. Price action shows a lower low for the third straight trading day, suggesting further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning bearish, an indication that bears are in charge.
With that said, XAU/USD's first support is the November 4 daily low of $3,919, followed by the October 30 year-to-date low of $3,879. On the flip side, the first key resistance is $4,000. A breach of the latter paves the way for a move toward the psychological $4,050 area, followed by $4,100. Above, the next area of interest is the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), at $4,177 and $4,200, respectively.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The US Dollar (USD) has pushed harder, reaching levels last seen in April 2025 on the back of persistent bets over another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its December gathering.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has clinched fresh tops just pips away from the key 103.00 hurdle, a move widely underpinned by a marked rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due alongside Existing Home Sales and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. Additionally, the Fed’s Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee and Daly are expected to speak.
EUR/USD has collapsed below 1.1100, reaching levels last traded in May 2025, always on the back of the sharp rebound in the US Dollar. The ECB’s Vujčić and Lagarde will speak amid an otherwise empty domestic calendar.
GBP/USD has tumbled to four-week lows, revisiting the 1.3270-1.3260 band following the Greenback’s solid performance. Next on tap in the UK will be the RICS House Price Balance, along with the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate, flash quarterly Business Investment figures, Balance of Trade results, Construction Orders/Output, Industrial/Manufacturing Production and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.
USD/JPY has climbed further, hitting fresh two-month tops while trading closer to the key 160.00 barrier. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due, followed by Producer Prices and the speech by the BoJ’s Asada.
AUD/USD has dropped to the vicinity of 0.6840 for the first time since January on the back of the increasingly offered stance in the risk-linked universe. Next in Oz will be the Consumer Inflation Expectations tracked by the Melbourne Institute, along with the speech by the RBA’s Baker.
Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have regained some traction, reversing three daily pullbacks in a row and reclaiming the area beyond the $87.00 mark per barrel following the resurgence of some effervescence in the Middle East.
Gold has built on Tuesday’s retracement, slipping back to the area below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. The continuation of the bearish tone in the precious metal has followed extra gains in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board.
- USD/CHF climbs nearly 1% to a four-week high as the US Dollar extends its rally.
- Hotter-than-expected US inflation and hawkish Fed remarks fuel expectations of more aggressive rate hikes.
- The Fed-SNB policy divergence weighs on the Swiss Franc.
USD/CHF climbs nearly 1% on Wednesday, reaching a four-week high as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board following a sharp shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8335, extending gains for the second straight day.
The Greenback continues to attract buyers after hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials raised the prospect of more aggressive interest rate hikes. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.96, surpassing the previous yearly peak of 102.94 set in October.
Data released on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in October, above the 0.3% forecast but down from 0.6% in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM, matching September’s pace and beating the 0.2% forecast.
The inflation figures have added to expectations that the Fed may need to raise borrowing costs further to contain persistent price pressures. Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike in December if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson have also backed additional tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now fully price in a December rate hike, with an 87.1% probability of a 25 bps increase and a 12.9% chance of a larger 50 bps move. Traders also expect further rate increases in 2027.
Fed-SNB policy outlook keeps Swiss Franc under pressure
On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept its policy rate at 0% as inflation remains within its price-stability range. This contrasts with growing expectations of further Fed tightening, leaving the interest rate gap between the United States and Switzerland firmly in favor of the US Dollar.
However, Swiss inflation has also started to pick up. Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 1.5% in October, its highest level in nearly three years, largely driven by higher energy prices.
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said earlier this month the central bank would not hesitate to adjust monetary policy if price stability comes under threat. He noted that inflation in Switzerland is currently driven mainly by fuel and energy prices, adding that policymakers will closely monitor the risk of second-round inflation effects. Schlegel also reiterated that the policy rate remains the SNB's main tool, although foreign exchange interventions could be used if necessary.
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.64% | 0.52% | 0.66% | 0.41% | 0.24% | 0.68% | 1.00% | |
| EUR | -0.64% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.21% | -0.39% | 0.07% | 0.36% | |
| GBP | -0.52% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.12% | -0.30% | 0.18% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.66% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.24% | -0.42% | 0.05% | 0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.41% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.24% | -0.18% | 0.29% | 0.58% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | 0.39% | 0.30% | 0.42% | 0.18% | 0.49% | 0.76% | |
| NZD | -0.68% | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.49% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | -1.00% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.33% | -0.58% | -0.76% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
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