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UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains broadly stable, with spot around 1.2815 and the S$NEER holding 1.52% above its estimated mid-point. Their short-term view is for intraday consolidation between 1.2800 and 1.2830, while over the next 1–3 weeks they expect a wider 1.2775–1.2835 range unless a close above 1.2835 opens 1.2855.

Dollar-Singapore pair stuck in ranges

"24-HOUR VIEW: When USD was at 1.2815 yesterday, we indicated that “the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a higher range between 1.2805 and 1.2825.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. During the NY session, USD spiked to a high of 1.2837 and then quickly retreated to end the day marginally lower by 0.01% at 1.2813. There is no clear increase in upward momentum with the brief rise. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2800 and 1.2830"

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (27 Oct, spot at 1.2810), we highlighted that “while the advance on Monday has resulted in an increase in upward momentum, it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, USD is likely to trade between 1.2775 and 1.2835.” Yesterday, USD briefly rose to a high of 1.2837 before pulling back. Given that there is no sustained break above 1.2835, we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 1.2775 and 1.2835. Looking ahead, should USD close above 1.2835, it could lead to a rise to 1.2855."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The US Dollar (USD) has come under renewed downside pressure on Thursday, receding to three-day lows while market participants assessed the ECB’s interest rate decision and kept monitoring developments from the Middle East crisis.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated for the second day in a row, briefly breaching below the key contention zone at 102.00. The Chicago PMI will wrap up the docket, seconded by the quarterly Employment Cost Index data.

The hawkish tone from the ECB and the renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar have lent extra legs to the EUR/USD’s recovery, with spot surpassing the 1.1170 level. Germany will publish its labour market report, along with flash Q3 GDP Growth Rate figures and the preliminary Inflation Rate. In addition, advanced Q3 GDP Growth Rate data in the broader euro area will also be released.

GBP/USD has built on Wednesday’s gains and advanced to three day tops, refocusing on the key 1.3400 hurdle. The Nationwide Housing Prices are due, followed by the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP).

USD/JPY has managed to reverse the previous day’s retracement and revisit the area above the 158.00 yardstick. The BoJ is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged, while the Unemployment Rate, the Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, flash Industrial Production data, Housing Starts and Construction Orders will also fulfil the domestic calendar.

AUD/USD has lost momentum soon after hitting five-week highs near 0.7070, eventually ending the day with modest losses in the low 0.7000s. The quarterly Producer Prices will be published alongside Housing Credit/Private Sector Credit figures.

Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have traded slightly lower, regaining some ground after a brief drop below the $100.00 mark per barrel amid renewed hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict.

Gold has lost traction, reversing three daily advances in a row and refocusing on the key  $4,000 mark per troy ounce. Persistently elevated US inflation continues to underpin the Fed’s tighter-for-longer stance, keeping the yellow metal under pressure.

• USD/JPY trades little changed as traders await the BoJ’s monetary policy announcement.
• The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady on Friday, with traders looking for clues on a December hike.
• US inflation and GDP data keep hawkish Fed expectations intact, although the Dollar struggles to gain ground.

USD/JPY trades little changed on Thursday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms most of its major peers, although a softer US Dollar (USD) keeps the pair from gaining much ground. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 157.90.

The BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.25% following a 25-basis-point (bps) hike in September and a total of 50 bps of tightening so far this year. A pause would give policymakers more time to assess how previous increases are affecting borrowing conditions and economic activity.

With a hold largely expected on Friday, attention will centre on the bank’s updated growth and inflation forecasts and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Traders anticipate another rate hike in December as higher energy costs and rising import costs from a weak Yen add to inflation pressure.

The latest inflation data showed that prices excluding fresh food rose 2.1% YoY, up from 1.7% and above the BoJ’s 2% target. Inflation excluding both fresh food and energy increased to 2.4% from 1.9%. Before the policy announcement, Japan's October Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) and September unemployment figures will provide another look at inflation and labour market conditions.

Analysts at Commerzbank argue that, for FX markets, the key issue at upcoming BoJ meetings is less the immediate decision and more the guidance for year-end, noting that “for FX markets, the more important question will therefore be what the BoJ signals about December.” They point out that “markets currently price in an around 80% probability of a rate hike by then,” which is “in line with our own expectation that the BoJ will raise the policy rate to 1.5%.” In their view, “recent BoJ communication, alongside the economic backdrop, increasingly suggests that the next step towards policy normalization is approaching.”

In the United States (US), data released on Thursday showed annual headline and core PCE inflation rising, while third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations. Personal income and spending fell short of forecasts, although lower-than-expected jobless claims pointed to continued low layoffs.

The releases keep a December Federal Reserve (Fed) hike firmly in play after policymakers held rates steady on Wednesday. Even so, the US Dollar struggles to sustain its initial post-data gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, eases toward 102.00 after reaching an intraday high of 102.33.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong remain mildly cautious on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) as MSCI reclassification uncertainty, foreign equity selling, elevated oil prices and a firm US Dollar weigh on the currency. Investors seek credible enforcement of market reforms, while a sustained recovery hinges on stabilising portfolio flows. USD/IDR retains an upside bias, although overbought RSI readings warrant monitoring for a technical turnaround.

MSCI and Oil risks cap Rupiah

"IDR remained under pressure amid lingering uncertainty over MSCI’s proposed reclassification of Indonesia to standalone status. The JCI fell sharply earlier this week, accompanied by foreign equity selling, before recovering modestly yesterday. The IDX’s latest measures to address concerns over market transparency and trading practices have yet to restore investor confidence. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices continue to weigh on IDR, adding to an already challenging external backdrop."

"We retain a mildly cautious bias on IDR. While the authorities have taken steps to address MSCI’s concerns, investors will likely want to see credible enforcement before reassessing their exposure."

"More importantly, we would watch whether continued foreign equity selling spills over more materially onto government bonds, particularly as elevated oil prices and a firm USD leave IDR vulnerable to renewed pressure. For now, some easing in oil prices and a pullback in USD could offer respite, but a more convincing IDR recovery would require signs that portfolio flows are stabilising."

"USD/IDR last closed at 18183. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose to overbought conditions. While upside bias remains intact, we continue to look for signs of any technical turnaround as the pair approaches its prior high. Resistance at 18190 (2026 high), 18450 levels. Support at 18000, 17972 (21 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Gold drops over 1% to $4,019, breaking a three-day winning streak.
• US GDP accelerates to 3.4% in Q3, while Core PCE inflation reaches 3.1% in September.
• December Fed hike odds remain elevated at 81% despite recent repricing.

Gold (XAU/USD) dives over 1% on Thursday after a tranche of US economic data cemented the case for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at the December 9 meeting. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,019 after reaching a high of $4,069.

XAU/USD tumbles as resilient growth and elevated inflation reinforce December tightening expectations

The Greenback is extending its losses, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against six peers, down 0.18% at 101.96. This was sparked by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates unchanged and by the lack of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday.

Following the decision, money markets priced in an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Since then, they trimmed the odds to 81%, according to Prime Terminal.

Gold prices pushed up to $4,035 before making a U-turn to current levels on the release of US data. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 rose 3.4% YoY, above forecasts of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Also, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 3.1% YoY as expected, signaling the Fed has work to do on its price stability mandate.

After economic growth and inflation data, the jobs market is faring well, with Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24 cooling from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of 199K.

Tensions in the Middle East eased after US Vice President JD Vance sought to revive peace negotiations by writing to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Even though Oil prices drifted lower, bullion has failed to recover amid expectations of higher interest rates.

The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 4.999%, after reaching a low of 4.949%. This, along with uncertainty about the outcome of the November 3 US midterm elections, keeps Gold prices steady.

Next week, the docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, Factory Orders, the JOLTS survey, Initial Jobless Claims and October’s Nonfarm Payrolls data.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Drops towards $4,000 as sellers eye YTD low beneath $3,970

Gold price shows sellers are dominating the action as XAU/USD falls below Wednesday's daily low of $4,025, poised to test last week’s low of $3,975 if Gold dives below $4,000. Momentum favors further downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges lower towards oversold territory.

On the other hand, buyers can reclaim some control if Gold clears the $4,100 mark. Once done, the next stop is $4,200, followed by the 100-day and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,217 and $4,269, respectively.

Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan analyzes the Bank of Canada’s 25bps rate hike to 2.5%, which came despite subdued core inflation and soft growth. The bank now expects another 25bps increase in December, taking the year-end rate to 2.75%, and sees the BoC pausing in 2027, with scope for further hikes if growth momentum is confirmed.

BoC front-loads insurance tightening

"The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the policy rate by 25bps to 2.5% at its 28 October meeting; we had expected a pause. While consensus leaned towards a hike, many had considered such a move unnecessary amid subdued core inflation and soft growth. Nevertheless, the BoC showed a strong preference to hike pre-emptively in response to inflation risks."

"Forward guidance signalled potential for additional hikes but was non-committal. We think this signals that the BoC believes further tightening is needed to offset upside inflation risks, but may be reluctant to lock it in amid high uncertainty around the energy shock. We expect another 25bps hike in December, taking the year-end rate to 2.75% (2.25% prior), the midpoint of BoC’s neutral estimate."

"The BoC could opt for a hold in December if data shows continued labour-market deterioration in October and November. We expect core inflation prints to continue to run soft ahead of the December meeting, but that is unlikely to change BoC’s tightening bias. Absent a clear resolution of the Middle East conflict, the BoC will likely view high energy prices as adding to inflation risks and contained core inflation as temporary."

"We expect it to stay put in 2027 after delivering a total of 50bps hikes in 2026. The BoC might be open to further rate hikes later in 2027 if data confirms solid growth momentum. The central bank’s new model puts a heavy emphasis on energy cost transmission while downplaying the inflation impact of demand compression."

"We expect soft demand to keep broader inflationary pressure relatively contained, limiting the need to hike beyond the initial insurance hikes. Market pricing of over 85bps of hikes for the rest of the cycle remains excessive, in our view, especially given pre-emptive moves likely aimed at avoiding a steep hiking cycle."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• Silver tumbles to fresh yearly lows as hawkish Fed expectations dominate.
• XAG/USD trades below daily SMAs, keeping the bearish outlook intact.
• RSI signals oversold conditions, while MACD and ADX suggest sellers remain in control.

Silver (XAG/USD) falls around 3% on Thursday, sliding to fresh year-to-date lows as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers on the sidelines. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $52.32, its lowest level since November 2025.

The decline comes despite a softer US Dollar (USD), suggesting that price action remains driven by interest rate expectations. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Silver.

The latest US economic data released on Thursday keep bets on a December rate hike firmly in place. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, closely watched by the Fed, rose 0.3% MoM in September. Annual core inflation increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Traders see around an 80% chance of a December rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This comes after the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the conclusion of its October meeting on Wednesday. However, the main takeaway was that inflation remained elevated and the central bank remained committed to ensuring price stability.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, sellers remain in control as XAG/USD trades well below its key daily moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 28, signalling oversold conditions that could allow a short-term bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 37 suggests the downtrend remains strong.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level near $55.00, followed by the former congestion zone around $60.00 before the 100-day SMA at $61.73 and the 50-day SMA at $62.11 come into play as a broader resistance band, with the 200-day SMA further up at $70.63 marking a major barrier to any sustained recovery.

On the downside, an extension of the decline would bring the $50.00 psychological level into focus as major support. A decisive break below it could open the door to deeper losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but firmer against other commodity currencies, supported by a modestly hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC) hike. Governor Macklem’s tone helped narrow yield spreads and pull their fair value for USD/CAD just under 1.3980. Technically, the pair’s break below 1.40 points to limited support until the 1.3900/1.3920 zone.

BoC hawkishness supports Canadian Dollar

"Comments from BoC Gov. Macklem reported by Bloomberg late Wednesday offered a relatively hawkish read, relative to a statement and press conference that had been somewhat more restrained."

"In any event, the BoC’s hike on Wednesday was delivered with a modestly hawkish message that ultimately delivered a slight boost in rate expectations across the curve."

"The BoC’s hawkishness has provided for a continued narrowing in yield spreads, dragging our FV to 1.3979."

"We see limited support ahead of the 1.3900/1.3920 area."

"Bearish – the renewed decline in USD/CAD has delivered a fresh break below 1.40 and opened up the possibility of a push below Friday’s local low in the mid/upper-1.39s. The RSI is clearly bearish and back below 40. We see limited support ahead of the 1.3900/1.3920 area."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• GBP/USD gains 0.19% to 1.3340 despite stronger US economic data.
• US GDP expanded 3.4% in Q3, while Core PCE inflation reaches 3.1%.
• Markets price November BoE hike as December Fed tightening odds reach 81%.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, even as US economic data was solid: GDP exceeded estimates, inflation rose as expected, and the job market is robust. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3340, up 0.19%.

GBP/USD advances despite resilient US growth, high Core PCE reading as investors eye BoE next week rate hike

In the US, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.4% YoY, above forecasts of 3.2% and Q2’s 2.2% print. Resilient consumer spending topped the previous print of 3.4% at 3.8% YoY, suggesting the economy is heating up.

With the economy pushing up, so does inflation. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY as expected, reinforcing the case for further tightening by the US central bank, which decided to hold rates on Wednesday.

Other data showed that jobless claims for the week ending October 24 dipped from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of a 199K jump.

The data release increased the chances of a Fed hike at the December 9 meeting, with traders pricing in an 81% chance of a 25-basis-point move.

In the UK, traders digested the budget presented by Finance Minister John Healey, who said he would raise rates on banks, gambling, savers, landlords, and online shopping. On the other hand, he is set to introduce measures against high energy prices.

Beyond the budget, GBP/USD traders look ahead to the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting next week. The markets priced in a 25-basis-point hike in November and another next February, revealed Prime Terminal.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3368, holding a mildly bearish tone as spot remains capped beneath the simple moving average cluster around 1.3385 and a descending trend-line resistance at 1.3393. The pair has reclaimed some ground from recent lows, and the Relative Strength Index (14) at 54.4 hints at improving momentum, yet the broader structure still shows price trading below former rising support lines turned resistance near 1.3652 and 1.3830, reinforcing the idea of a capped recovery rather than a clear bullish trend.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the simple moving average cluster around 1.3385, followed closely by the descending trend-line barrier at 1.3393; a sustained break above these levels would open the path toward the former upward-sloping supports now acting as resistance near 1.3652 and 1.3830. On the downside, the nearest notable underlying demand is seen at the prior downward resistance trendline break around 1.3253, where buyers could attempt to slow any corrective pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected on October 29 at 17:14 GMT to say that US consumer spending rose 3.8% YoY, not 3.6%.)

• Gold loses ground as the Fed's hawkish stance weighs on the non-yielding metal.
• US PCE inflation matches forecasts, while GDP growth beats expectations.
• RSI and MACD signal weak momentum on the daily chart, while XAU/USD hovers above the lower Bollinger Band.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday decline on Thursday as the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December after the US central bank held interest rates steady at its October meeting. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,022, down 1.11% on the day.

The headline PCE Price Index rose 0.5% MoM in September, matching expectations and accelerating from August’s 0.3% increase. Annual inflation climbed to 3.6% from 3.4%, also in line with forecasts.

The core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% MoM, matching expectations and August’s reading, which was revised up from 0.2%. On an annual basis, core inflation rose to 3.1% from 3.0%, as expected.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 on Wednesday to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoured a 25-basis-point (bps) increase. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to delivering price stability. Warsh noted that “while overall financial conditions are tighter, I’m unwilling and unable to call them tight.”

Analysts at Rabobank highlight that despite leaving policy unchanged, the Committee “indicated a need for more information to help determine the appropriate policy stance.” Chair Warsh underscored that the “FOMC will receive a lot more data in the weeks through the next meeting,” reinforcing the data-dependent nature of the Fed’s reaction function.

Rabobank’s US strategist concludes that, “without providing forward guidance, Warsh essentially made the case for a rate hike in December,” suggesting that the door to further tightening remains firmly open.

The latest PCE data show inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, partly reflecting higher energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter.

Sticky inflation and stronger growth reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 83% chance of an increase. However, the US Dollar struggles to build on its brief post-data gains, while Treasury yields remain on the back foot amid equity market jitters. Oil prices also trade slightly lower.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, eases toward 102.00 after reaching an intraday high of 102.33. Even so, Gold fails to benefit from the softer Dollar and lower yields as the prospect of further Fed tightening continues to weigh on the non-yielding metal.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD holds above the lower Bollinger Band

On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,112, which forms the middle Bollinger Band, keeping the near-term bias bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 38, pointing to weak buying momentum without reaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, suggesting that sellers retain control.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 20-day SMA near $4,113, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at $4,230. A sustained move above these levels could open the door toward $4,400.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near $3,995 and the previous support zone around $4,000-$3,950 are likely to keep further declines in check. However, a decisive break below this area could trigger a deeper decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)