Forex News
- EUR/USD drops as December Fed cut odds fall from 42% to 33% after hawkish FOMC minutes.
- Minutes reveal deep Fed division, with majority resisting more easing despite labor-market softness.
- Eurozone HICP dips to 2.1% near ECB target as focus shifts to US jobs and confidence data.
EUR/USD drops over 0.49% on Wednesday as the minutes of the Federal Reserve hinted the central bank could skip an interest rate cut at the December meeting, according to October’s meeting minutes. The pair trades at 1.1524, after hitting a daily low shy of 1.1600.
Euro tumbles nearly 0.5% after FOMC minutes reveal most Fed officials oppose easing at next month’s meeting
The minutes showed the Fed is split, with most of the members opposing a December rate cut, at the October 28-29 meeting. The chances of a rate cut fell from around 42% to 33%, revealed the FedWatch Tool.
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in September, close to the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% inflation target. Core HICP was 2.4% YoY for the same period.
Ahead the US economic docket will feature US jobs data, led by Nonfarm Payroll figures, Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speakers. In Europe, the schedule is light, with traders eyeing Eurozone Consumer Confidence.
Daily market movers: Fed minutes weigh on the Euro
- Federal Reserve minutes revealed that “Many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate,” but some would have been satisfied with keeping rates unchanged. The minutes showed that the Committee is concerned about inflation and that further easing “could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched.”
- The minutes showed that policymakers "Several" support a December reduction as likely appropriate, several others saw lower rates as eventually appropriate though not necessarily as of December, while "many participants" had already ruled out a December cut.
- US Nonfarm Payroll figures for September would be revealed on Thursday. Economists expect that the economy would likely add 50K people to the workforce exceeding August’s 22K print.
- The Euro is also pressured by the Dollar’s strength. The US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the performance of American currency against other six is up 0.54% at 100.13.
EUR/USD technical outlook: Slides towards 1.1500 on hawkish Fed minutes
The EUR/USD has fallen to a two-week low of 1.1517, before hovering around current exchange rates. Buyers failed to reclaim 1.1600 as the Fed hints that it could hold rates unchanged at the December meeting.
A drop below 1.1500 could open the path to test the November 5 swing low of 1.1468, followed by 1.1450. Once breached, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could be reached at 1.1393.
For a bullish continuation, the EUR/USD needs to rise above the 100-day SMA at 1.1574, followed by the 20-day SMA at 1.1578 and 1.1600. This clears the path to challenge the key resistance level at 1.1650, the 50-day SMA.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Dow Jones is struggling to find a foothold near 46,000.
- Equities are on the defensive ahead of after-market earnings call for key AI supplier Nvidia.
- Fed rate cut expectations evaporate as BLS cancels October NFP data citing collection issues.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) struggled to hold next to flat on Wednesday, mired in a downside trajectory near the 46,000 major price handle. The Dow Jones fell for four straight trading sessions, falling nearly 5% from a record high set near 48,420, but selling pressure in key average stocks may have run too far, too fast.
Nvidia earnings due after the closing bell
Nvidia (NVDA) has a key earnings report releasing after markets close on Wednesday, and the AI darling chipset printer has a high bar to pass. Nvidia is down over 12% through November as investors begin to question when returns are expected on trillions of dollars in capex and investment commitments in the increasingly circular AI tech segment.
Nvidia’s stock price has become a bellwether for the overall health of the LLM craze. As the premier shovel-seller in the AI gold rush, Nvidia is overwhelmingly likely to continue posting record-breaking growth metrics, but Wall Street expectations for the silicon-puncher’s earnings have run into the stratosphere.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has pre-emptively canceled the release of October’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, citing a lack of data collection through the federal government shutdown. Rate markets are already recoiling, pricing down the odds of a December cut. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut on December 10 have fallen to around 30%.
FOMC seemed willing to explore a December cut
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest Meeting Minutes showed that several Fed policymakers were open to the idea of a December rate cut, but those observations were made before Fed officials knew the October NFP data would be deleted from history.
September’s NFP jobs report will be published on Thursday. However, the report is already unlikely to drive much market attention now that an October lull will leave policymakers in a data lurch until the new year.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
The US Dollar (USD) added to the ongoing recovery, hitting new multi-day highs and surpassing its critical 200-day SMA despite declining US Treasury yields and amid rising caution prior to the release of Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
Here’s what to watch on Thursday, November 20:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) clocked its fourth consecutive day of gains on Wednesday, advancing past the psychological 100.00 hurdle as market participants assessed the latest FOMC Minutes and geared up for the upcoming US jobs report. The October’s Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage, seconded by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, and the speeches by the Fed’s Hammack and Cook.
EUR/USD lost further impulse and receded to multi-day troughs in the 1.1540-1.1530 band on the back of the persistent risk-off mood. Germany’s Producer Prices are due, followed by the EMU’s Construction Output and the flash Consumer Confidence gauge. In addition, the ECB’s Buch is expected to speak.
GBP/USD came under extra downside pressure, breaking below the key 1.3100 support and reaching two-week lows after softer UK CPI data opened the door to further easing by the BoE in December. Next on tap on the UK docket will be the CBI Industrial Trends Orders
There was no stopping for the sharp march north in USD/JPY, this time largely surpassing the 156.00 hurdle for the first time since late January. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due, followed by the speak by the BoJ’s Koeda.
AUD/USD maintained its choppiness well in place, reversing Tuesday’s uptick and resuming its decline to levels well south of the 0.6500 support on Wednesday. The speeches by the RBA’s Connolly and Hunter will be the only events in Oz in an otherwise empty calendar.
In the central banks’ chapter, the PBoC is widely anticipated to keep its One-Year and Five-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, at its meeting on Thursday. In the meantime, USD/CNH advances for the fourth day in a row, regaining traction and surpassing the 7.1200 level following last week’s monthly lows near 7.0900
Prices of the American WTI dropped markedly on Wednesday, breaking below the $59.00 mark per barrel on oversupply concerns, although geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine front seem to have mitigated the decline for now.
Gold extended further its Tuesday’s rebound, exceeding the $4,100 mark per troy ounce amid shrinking US Treasury yields and despite extra gains in the US Dollar. Silver prices followed suit, breaking above the $52.00 mark per ounce to reach fresh three-day peaks.
The latest release of the Fed's meeting Minutes offered a wide-ranging look at how policymakers are weighing the path ahead. From rate-cut debates to concerns about inflation, market stability and the composition of the bank's balance sheet, the discussion showed a Committee that remains cautious, divided at the margins, and sensitive to shifting economic risks.
Key Quotes
Most participants judged further rate reductions would likely be appropriate over time, but several indicated they did not necessarily view a reduction in december as appropriate.
Policymakers were divided over support for that meeting's rate cut and over whether a December cut would be appropriate.
Several participants assessed a December rate cut could be appropriate if the economy evolved as they expected.
Most participants noted further rate cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation objective.
Many participants suggested that under their outlooks it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
Many participants favoured October's rate cut, though some among them said they could have supported no change.
Several participants highlighted the possibility of a disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of AI-related prospects.
Almost all participants noted it was appropriate to conclude the balance sheet reduction programme on December 1.
Most participants favoured a Fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding.
The Fed staff economic outlook for the October meeting saw modestly stronger real GDP growth through 2028 relative to the September forecast.
Some participants favoured a larger-than-proportional share of T-Bills, citing the benefits of greater flexibility.
Market reaction to the FOMC Minutes
The Greenback keeps its march north unabated in the wake of the publication of the FOMC Minutes, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around the psychological 100.00 region amid marked gains and challenging its key 200-day SMA at the same time.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.88% | 0.52% | 0.74% | 1.19% | 0.76% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.17% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.70% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.66% | -0.17% | 0.23% | -0.13% | 0.09% | 0.54% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.88% | -0.40% | -0.23% | -0.35% | -0.13% | 0.34% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.52% | -0.04% | 0.13% | 0.35% | 0.22% | 0.67% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.74% | -0.26% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.22% | 0.44% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -1.19% | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.34% | -0.67% | -0.44% | -0.43% | |
| CHF | -0.76% | -0.27% | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.23% | -0.02% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the FOMC Minutes of the October 28-29 meeting at 13:15 GMT.
- The Minutes of the Fed’s October 28-29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday.
- Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 bps will be scrutinised by investors.
- Markets are split on whether the Fed will cut the policy rate again in December.
The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) October 28–29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 3.75%-4% at that meeting, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of lowering the fed funds rate by 50 bps, while Kansas Fed President Jeff Schmid preferred no change.
Jerome Powell and company opted to reduce the policy rate in October
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps in October, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed acknowledged that job gains slowed and the unemployment rate edged up, but reiterated that inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” Additionally, the Fed announced that it will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that one more 25-bps rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” and added there were strongly differing opinions among policymakers on what the next step could be.
TD Securities analysts expect the FOMC Minutes to reveal the extent of the internal debate that led to a hawkish cut in October. “Since the meeting, the hawks have gained the upper-hand in public remarks amid a lack of official data releases. The end-of-QT October announcement will also get airtime in the minutes, as we expect reserve management purchases to be announced at the January FOMC,” they said.
When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?
The FOMC will release the Minutes of the October 28-29 policy meeting at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in December, down from nearly 70% a week earlier. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) faces two-way near-term risk.
In case the publication suggests that policymakers are willing to keep the policy rate unchanged to buy time to assess the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, investors could lean toward a policy hold in December and allow the USD to gain some strength against its rivals. Conversely, the USD could have a difficult time staying resilient against other major currencies if Fed officials voice growing concerns over the labor market conditions while adopting an optimistic view on the inflation outlook.
Nevertheless, the market reaction to the FOMC Minutes could remain short-lived, as investors are likely to wait for the economic data backlog to clear before positioning themselves for a Fed rate cut or a policy hold in December.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief outlook for the USD Index:
“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart edges higher to 58 after rebounding from the midline, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key resistance level near 101.30. In case the USD Index makes a daily close above this level and starts using it as support, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 101.40 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the January-July downtrend) could be seen as the next resistance level.”
“Looking south, the first support area could be seen between 98.20 and 97.70 (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA, round number, 20-day SMA) ahead of 96.25 (end-point of the downtrend).”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- Gold trims a 1% advance, trading near $4,071 as the US Dollar strength outweighs lower Treasury yields across the curve.
- Traders await delayed NFP report, with December rate-cut odds slipping to 42% after Powell’s warnings.
- Rumored US–Russia peace plan pressures Bullion, while AI-bubble fears keep market sentiment fragile but supportive.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains firm during the North American session on Wednesday, but trims earlier gains of over 1% as the US Dollar (USD) rallies sharply as traders wait for a key US job report due on Thursday and assess the developments on the Russia-Ukraine war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,081, up 0.31%.
XAU/USD pares gains as stronger Greenback and Ukraine peace-talk rumors offset safe-haven demand before key US data
Market mood improved modestly as US equities recovered some ground, following back-to-back bearish sessions as traders questioned a possible AI bubble, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
The non-yielding metal recovered, but it has retreated as the Greenback posts solid gains even though US Treasury bond yields tumbled across the whole curve. Traders brace for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting minutes and for Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Regarding October and November’s NFP reports, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that they will be published on December 16, after the Fed’s last meeting. The BLS added that the Unemployment Rate could not be collected.
Money markets had priced in a 42% chance that the Fed will cut rates at the December 9-10 meeting. In the last meeting, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that a rate cut in December is far from being a sure thing, adding that there are “strongly different views” within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Rumors that US and Russian officials drafted a new peace plan for Ukraine, according to the Financial Times, pushed Gold prices lower.
Daily market movers: Gold’s direction determined by Fed minutes, US NFP
- The Dollar surges to a two-week high as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance versus six currencies, is up 0.54% to 100.13. Contrarily, US Treasury yields are steady, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield standing at 4.11%. US real yields — which correlate inversely to Gold prices, are also unchanged at 1.85%.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls figures for September will be revealed on Thursday. Economists expect that the economy added 50K people to the workforce, exceeding August’s 22K print.
- On Tuesday, the US Department of Labor revealed the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 18 showed that 232K people applied for unemployment benefits. Continuing claims rose to 1.957 million for the same week, the highest level since early August.
- The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that US President Donald Trump will announce his pick to become the next Federal Reserve Chair in December.
- Goldman Sachs revealed that central banks continued to purchase Gold, particularly the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The PBoC added an estimate of 15 tons of the yellow metal to its Forex reserves two months ago. They added that the PBoC could continue its purchases in November, which could push Bullion prices higher.
Technical outlook: Gold consolidates within $4,070-$4,100, subdued
Gold’s uptrend remains intact, but price action so far indicates that buyers are cautious, waiting for the Fed minutes. So far, XAU/USD sits above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,044, seen as a key support level. Momentum remains bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
If Gold clears $4,100, traders could challenge the $4,200 mark. However, a drop below the 20-day SMA would make it vulnerable for a retracement toward $4,000, followed by the October 28 low near $3,886.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/CAD rises as broader US Dollar strength weighs on the Loonie.
- Markets scale back December Fed rate-cut bets after BLS cancels October jobs report.
- Traders eye FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s delayed September NFP release.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/CAD erasing all of Tuesday’s losses as broader Greenback strength weighs on the Loonie. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4044, up nearly 0.50% on the day, as traders turn cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.
The Greenback is showing firm momentum, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to two-week highs near 100.12. The renewed strength comes as markets scale back expectations of another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December.
December Fed rate cut bets have eased further after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that the October Employment Situation Report has been cancelled. The US government shutdown prevented them from collecting all the information, especially the data needed to calculate the Unemployment Rate. As a result, the missing October numbers will now be released together with the November jobs report on December 16, which is after the December 9-10 meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 31.8% probability of a December rate cut, sharply lower than the 62.9% seen a week ago. Traders now look ahead to the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Thursday, which could reshape market expectations.
The October FOMC Meeting Minutes, due at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday, will be closely watched for clues on last month’s 25 basis-point rate cut, which lowered the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. Traders are looking for clearer guidance after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the October press conference that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion," a comment that carries more weight now that key labor-market data has been delayed.
In Canada, the soft inflation figures released earlier this week reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep policy unchanged in the near term. Policymakers cut rates at their last meeting and signalled that the move could mark the end of the easing cycle, provided inflation continues to drift lower.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.56% | 0.80% | 0.47% | 0.66% | 1.11% | 0.65% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | 0.16% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.26% | 0.70% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | -0.56% | -0.16% | 0.25% | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.54% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.80% | -0.40% | -0.25% | -0.32% | -0.13% | 0.34% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.47% | -0.07% | 0.09% | 0.32% | 0.19% | 0.64% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -0.66% | -0.26% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.19% | 0.45% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -1.11% | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.34% | -0.64% | -0.45% | -0.46% | |
| CHF | -0.65% | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.14% | -0.18% | 0.00% | 0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The New Zealand Dollar declines sharply on Wednesday as global risk aversion intensifies.
- Softer producer price data strengthens expectations of an RBNZ rate cut next week.
- Investors await the release of the FOMC minutes, while the US Dollar stays supported by safe-haven flows.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5600 at the time of writing on Wednesday, down 1.10% on the day, hitting a new eight-month low as disappointing New Zealand data and a broader deterioration in risk sentiment weigh heavily on the currency.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure following weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. According to the official statistics agency, Input prices rose only 0.2% in the third quarter, down from 0.6% previously and well below the 0.9% expected. Output prices increased by 0.6%, missing expectations of a slight acceleration. These releases follow recent comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicating that inflation expectations are now anchored near 2% and that unemployment climbed to 5.3% in Q3, its highest level in nine years. These factors strengthen market expectations for a rate cut at next week’s meeting.
In the United States (US), recent data have not painted a particularly positive macroeconomic picture, yet the US Dollar (USD) is benefiting from safe-haven inflows as global uncertainty rises. This week’s Initial Jobless Claims and ADP employment numbers have added to signs of a cooling US labor market, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in December. For now, the US Dollar remains well supported as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later in the day and, above all, Thursday’s delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.58% | 0.85% | 0.51% | 0.72% | 1.15% | 0.67% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | 0.17% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.32% | 0.73% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.58% | -0.17% | 0.27% | -0.07% | 0.14% | 0.56% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.85% | -0.42% | -0.27% | -0.32% | -0.11% | 0.33% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.51% | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.32% | 0.22% | 0.64% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.72% | -0.32% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.22% | 0.42% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -1.15% | -0.73% | -0.56% | -0.33% | -0.64% | -0.42% | -0.47% | |
| CHF | -0.67% | -0.26% | -0.09% | 0.16% | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.47% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- WTI slips toward $59.00 on Wednesday, declining 2.80% on the day.
- API data showed a build in US Crude stocks, while the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp drawdown.
- Upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could help limit the downside in Oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $59.00 on Wednesday at the time of writing, down 2.80% on the day. The price remains under pressure as traders weigh mixed US inventory data and monitor escalating geopolitical risks linked to upcoming sanctions on major Russian producers.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), US Crude Oil stockpiles for the week ending November 14 rose by 4.4 million barrels, following a 1.3 million barrel increase the previous week. These figures initially added bearish pressure, reinforcing the perception that US supply has been running above seasonal averages so far this year.
However, the more closely watched report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a very different picture earlier in the day. Official data showed a draw of 3.426 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.9 million barrel decline and after a substantial 6.413 million barrel build in the prior week. This divergence helped curb deeper losses in WTI, as traders typically regard EIA data as the more reliable gauge of underlying market balance.
Beyond inventories, geopolitical developments continue to influence sentiment. The United States (US) is preparing to enforce sanctions on Russian Oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil starting Friday. The US Department of the Treasury has stated that the measures introduced in October are already pressuring Russia’s Oil revenues and are expected to reduce export volumes over time. Any signs of persistent geopolitical strain could lend support to Oil prices by tightening global supply.
Overall, WTI remains caught between conflicting forces. The API’s inventory build and broad risk-off sentiment are weighing on prices, while the sharp EIA draw and looming Russian sanctions are helping cushion the decline, keeping the benchmark near $59.00.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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