Forex News
- USD/CHF retraces previous gains and dips towards 0.8100 after rejection at 0.8130.
- The US Dollar loses ground as the market braces for the release of the Fed's minutes.
- Rabobank experts observe that the SNB's dovish monetary policy has deprived the CHF of its safe-haven status.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciates moderately on Wednesday, as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back against major peers, with investors bracing for the release of the minutes of July’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, due later on the day. The USD/CHF pair has retreated to levels nearing 0.8100, from 0.8130 on Tuesday, although it remains well above August’s trading floor, in the 0.8040 area.
Market volatility remains subdued on Wednesday’s European session, with a mild risk-off mood prevailing, amid the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and with Oil prices on the rise, which is keeping the US Dollar from retreating further.
Fed minutes are likely to set the US Dollar's direction
The highlight of the day on Wednesday will be the release of the Federal Market Open Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes, due in the US session. The central bank kept interest rates on hold, amid a divided committee, and left investors in the dark regarding forward guidance in that meeting.
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke underscores that the lack of “clear statements in the press release and at the press conference following the Fed meeting” means “the market might try to learn a little more about the discussions among FOMC members,” as participants seek additional insight into policymakers’ thinking on the future rate path and the scope for any renewed Dollar support.
Regarding the Swiss Franc, FX analysts at Rabobank observe that “the combination of intervention threats and zero policy rates has certainly appeared to dilute the appeal of the CHF as a safe haven currency in recent months.” Looking ahead, Rabobank does not see reasons to think of a radical change of scenario: "The market sees little danger of an SNB rate hike in the next 12 months,” reinforcing the perception that Swiss rates are likely to remain anchored and further diminishing the currency’s defensive allure.
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Last release: Wed Jul 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: -
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Commerzbank FX analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim see USD/INR staying broadly stable as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeps the policy repo rate at 5.25% and remains in wait-and-see mode. The pair has traded between 94.00 and 97.00 since May, with forecasts pointing to a gradual drift lower toward 93.2 by December 2027, supported by strong FX reserves and past USD deposit inflows.
RBI on hold, rupee range intact
"The economy is holding up well, supported by firm domestic demand and encouraging export growth. Although growth is expected to moderate this year, it is still projected to expand by 6.7% for the current fiscal year 2026-2027 compared to 8% for the previous fiscal year."
"Inflation remains stable and RBI is projecting 5% for the current fiscal year, which is within RBI's 2-6% target range. RBI is in a wait-and-see mode and is expected to stay comfortably on hold at 5.25% this year."
"RBI's measures to attract foreign capital and stabilize INR have been successful. It will close the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR(B) deposit scheme one month ahead of schedule on 31 August."
"INR remains susceptible to a rise in global crude oil and gold prices. However, FX reserves have climbed back above USD700bn and this gives RBI greater capacity to smooth volatility if pressures return."
"USD/INR has remained within the 94.00-97.00 range since May, as sizable capital inflows have strengthened the balance of payment position and raised RBI's capacity to manage FX volatility. INR remains vulnerable to a rise in global crude oil and gold prices. RBI will likely lean on spot and forward FX intervention to smooth volatility if pressures return."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold’s rebound has lost momentum as renewed Oil gains and higher long-end US yields revive inflation concerns. Daily charts show fading bullish momentum and a lower Relative Strength Index (RSI) from near overbought levels. The strategist sees scope for near-term consolidation or pullback unless yields stabilise or investment demand improves, which would be needed for the Gold rally to regain traction.
Rebound stalls as yields stay elevated
"Gold’s rebound has lost some momentum as the renewed rise in oil prices added to pressure from higher long-end US yields."
"Firmer crude has brought inflation risks back into focus, helping keep longer-dated Treasury yields elevated even as markets pared back near-term Fed hike expectations."
"The USD was comparatively steady, offering little additional support. This leaves gold caught between a more supportive Fed backdrop and renewed pressure from oil and yields."
"For the gold rally to regain traction, oil and yields need to stabilise, or a stronger pickup from investment demand."
"Gold last seen at 4365 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but shows tentative signs of fading while RSI turned lower from near overbought conditions. Near term, some consolidation or a pullback remains possible."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Dow Jones futures hold flat following a third straight losing session led by tech and semiconductor stock declines.
- Crude oil prices rise amid ongoing US-Iran tensions, triggering a surge in long-term global bond yields.
- Traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July Meeting Minutes for guidance on future interest rates.
Dow Jones futures inch higher 0.06% to trade around 53,440 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures remain steady near 7,710, and Nasdaq 100 futures edge lower 0.03%, trading near 29,580.
US stock futures post mixed results as traders adopt a cautious stance driven by rising crude oil prices. Ongoing geopolitical friction between the United States (US) and Iran has sustained market concerns over global supply. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the US naval blockade remains in effect, noting that there are currently no active negotiations with Tehran. Despite official assertions that the regional waterway is open and mines have been cleared, shipping risks stay elevated, resulting in severely restricted transit through the region.
These pressures build on Tuesday's regular trading session, where all three major benchmarks lost ground for a third consecutive day. The Dow Jones fell 0.22%, the S&P 500 declined 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.33%. Broader market sentiment was further dampened by rising global bond yields and firmer oil prices, highlighted by the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-year high this week.
US Treasury yields reverse course after testing recent highs
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the bond market diverged from the broader pattern, noting that "the main exception to this pattern yesterday was US Treasury yields, which initially looked set for new highs before falling back." This reversal in yields underscored the softer tone in recent US data and helped ease some of the upward pressure that had been building in the rates complex.
Heavy selling in semiconductor and technology stocks led the downturn, with AI-linked chipmakers suffering steep losses. Investors are now turning their focus to the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s July Meeting Minutes for further market direction.
Chip-led selloff deepens as stagflation fears weigh on US equities
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the “stagflationary backdrop meant it was another difficult session, with fresh declines on both sides of the Atlantic.” In the US, they note that this pressure saw “the S&P 500 (-0.69%) lose ground for a third consecutive session, with chip stocks as the biggest driver of the declines.” Reflecting that underperformance, Deutsche Bank points out that “the Philly semiconductor index (-4.98%) had its worst day of August so far,” underscoring how weakness in the sector is amplifying broader equity losses.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- The US Dollar faces selling pressure against its peers ahead of FOMC minutes.
- The Fed maintained the status quo in the July policy meeting.
- Experts believe August’s US CPI and job data, and the outcome of the Jackson Hole, will be key triggers for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) trades lower against its major currency peers on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower at around 99.45, closer to its two-month low at 99.29 posted on Monday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.25% | -0.24% | -0.35% | -0.19% | 0.09% | -0.05% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.25% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 0.33% | 0.17% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.24% | -0.00% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.35% | 0.18% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.35% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.42% | 0.27% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.17% | 0.25% | 0.10% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.35% | -0.42% | -0.25% | -0.15% | -0.31% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | -0.17% | -0.18% | -0.27% | -0.10% | 0.15% | -0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.31% | 0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The impact of the FOMC minutes is expected to be limited on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations as Chairman Kevin Warsh remained committed to its “no forward guidance” policy. In the meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and cited upside inflation risks.
Market experts also believe that the FOMC minutes won’t be a key trigger for the US Dollar’s outlook.
Dollar steadies as FOMC minutes eyed but Fed seen short of a game changer
Analysts at ING say that, for today, attention is firmly on "tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting." They recall that "the vote was 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the Dollar, while the long end sold off."
ING argues that "the suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots." As a result, while "there may be a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes that could nudge the Dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer," ING stresses that "we do not see the minutes as a game changer."
Regarding the US Dollar’s outlook, analysts judge that "another batch of CPI and jobs data, plus the end-of-month Jackson Hole symposium, will have a bigger say in whether the Fed hikes in September," adding that "our base case is that it does not, and the Dollar softens a little."
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in September.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.43, extending its decline below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.03, which now acts as immediate overhead resistance and keeps the near‑term bias bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.95 hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting that while downside pressure dominates, selling momentum could be nearing exhaustion rather than intensifying.
On the topside, the first hurdle is the 20‑day EMA at 100.03, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open room toward higher recovery levels. On the downside, with no nearby structural supports from the provided dataset, short‑term traders will likely focus on price behavior around the psychological 99.00 area, while the subdued RSI reading hints that any fresh slide may become increasingly vulnerable to a corrective rebound.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that the Dollar remains supported by higher energy prices and long-end US yields, but FX volatility is still low, favouring carry trades. He expects the July FOMC minutes to show a less hawkish Federal Reserve than implied by prior Dot Plots, with upcoming CPI, jobs data and Jackson Hole more decisive. ING’s base case is no September hike and a slightly softer Dollar, with DXY confined to a tight range and USD/JPY options pricing minimal movement.
Dollar steady before FOMC minutes
"The unresolved conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices bid and partially contributing to the rise in long-end yields. Longer-dated US Treasuries actually found a little demand on yields above 5.30% yesterday, but risks still look skewed to the upside here."
"Higher rates have taken a little steam out of the growth stocks, but a 5% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor index yesterday looks small beer in comparison to daily swings seen so far this year. As yet, we see no grounds for a fundamental shift in the low volatility environment which favours the carry trade."
"For today, the focus will be on tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting. Recall that the vote was 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the dollar, while the long end sold off."
"The suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots. So while there may be a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes that could nudge the dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer, we do not see the minutes as a game changer."
"Instead, another batch of CPI and jobs data, plus the end-of-month Jackson Hole symposium, will have a bigger say in whether the Federal Reserve hikes in September. Our base case is that it does not, and the dollar softens a little."
"Expect more narrow range trading in DXY – perhaps in a 99.40-99.80 range. One-day FX option straddles in USD/JPY price just a 28 USD pip range for the next 24 hours."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- WTI may rise further as cautious traders see little sign of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- President Trump confirmed the US naval blockade remains active, adding that no negotiations with Tehran are underway.
- Data on Wednesday showed that shipping through the waterway slowed significantly as shipowners avoided the area amid uncertainty over the blockade.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price moves sideways after three days of gains, trading around $84.50 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices remain steady as ongoing geopolitical friction between the United States (US) and Iran sustained market concerns over global supply.
Oil prices may further appreciate as traders adopt caution due to little indication of a potential agreement to end the conflict and fully reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the US naval blockade remains in effect and noted there are currently no active negotiations with Tehran. Despite official assertions that the waterway is open and mines have been cleared, shipping risks stay elevated, resulting in severely restricted transit through the region.
Iranian forces have escalated operations over the past week, bringing the total number of reported vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this month to eight. These incidents have targeted ships connected to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, severely disrupting regional maritime traffic.
Data from Wednesday showed a marked slowdown in shipping through the vital waterway, as most vessel owners opted to avoid the route due to a lack of clear signals regarding the lifting of a blockade. In response, Iraq's cabinet approved new export mechanisms on Tuesday, enabling the country to route its crude oil through specialized international and local companies via alternative export outlets.
Oil gains persist as Deutsche Bank flags lack of progress on Strait of Hormuz
Deutsche Bank’s macro strategy team underscores that, “as all that was going on, there were still no signs of any negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” a development they see as reinforcing the recent grind higher in Brent futures across the curve and the risk of a more prolonged period of elevated energy costs.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has extended its rebound towards 1.1600 as European yields remain elevated while US Treasury yields stabilize after the recent spike. The team argues markets are pricing too many ECB rate hikes, suggesting scope for European rates to move lower, while upcoming FOMC Minutes remain the key catalyst for further direction.
EUR/USD recovers as yields stabilize and ECB bets shift
"It was an ugly cocktail for European assets yesterday with equities moving lower, European yields rising as the curve bear-flattened and commodities tracking higher. While risk sentiment remains sour in Asia, US yields have steadied in overnight trading and the 10Y UST yield has dropped from an intraday high of 4.75% yesterday to 4.69%. In our Yield Outlook released yesterday, we conclude that markets expect too many ECB hikes and see room for European rates to move lower."
"In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment surprised to the upside in August, with expectations rising to 34.2 (cons.: 30.0, prior: 26.3), while the assessment of the current situation improved to -61.1 (cons.: -69.3, prior: -77.6). The current situation is now almost back at the levels seen before the war in Iran, although expectations remain somewhat lower."
"The data follows a string of upside growth surprises in the euro area. Growth is also increasingly supported by fiscal stimulus."
"In the euro area, final July HICP inflation is due and is expected to confirm the flash estimate at 2.9% y/y for headline inflation and 2.5% y/y for core inflation."
"In the US, the minutes from the FOMC's July meeting are released this evening. Markets are looking for a more detailed sense of the committee's thinking beyond Kevin Warsh's limited forward guidance. Three participants voted in favour of a hike, and since then, several others have flagged willingness to support a hike if warranted by incoming data."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD pulls back below 1.3880 with bulls capped below 1.3900.
- Higher Oil prices and the pause in new US tariffs have provided a fresh boost to the Loonie.
- US Dollar bears are looking at the 200-day SMA, around 1.3850.
The US Dollar (USD) resumes its broader bearish trend with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from higher Oil prices and a deal with the US to pause 50% tariffs on Canadian exports. The USD/CAD pair returns to levels below 1.3880, following rejection at the 1.3900 area, with bears eyeing the support zone at 1.3850.
US and Canada reached a last-minute deal earlier on Wednesday to delay imposing new tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods for three days, as negotiations towards a trade agreement advance.
Beyond that, Oil prices, Canada’s main export, keep growing as the US-Iran peace process remains stalled and markets brace for an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Oil appreciated beyond 6% over the last three days, returning to the $90.00 area, which hints at higher trade revenues for Canada.
Technical Analysis: Support at the 200-day SMA is on focus
USD/CAD trades at 1.3876, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the daily chart deeply into bearish territory. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 32, just above oversold levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is well below zero, highlighting solid downside pressure.
Dips have been supported at the confluence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the bottom of the descending channel, in the 1.3850 area, but the rejection at 1.3900 confirmed that bears are in charge. Further down, the next target would be the late May lows in the 1.3770 area.
On the topside, the 1.3900 level should be broken to ease bearish pressure and clear the path towards a previous support area and the channel top, near the 1.4000 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.17% | 0.24% | 0.11% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | 0.01% | -0.11% | 0.03% | 0.38% | 0.24% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.39% | 0.24% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.49% | 0.35% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.38% | 0.24% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.38% | -0.39% | -0.49% | -0.38% | -0.13% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.11% | -0.24% | -0.24% | -0.35% | -0.24% | 0.13% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Derek Halpenny at MUFG notes that UK July CPI came in broadly as expected, with the headline rate rising to 2.9% mainly on higher utility bills, while services inflation eased. Combined with labour data showing modest wage growth and weak employment demand, he argues the Bank of England is likely to stay divided, with future moves hinging on Middle East-driven energy prices.
UK inflation, labour and BoE risks
"The July CPI data has just been released in the UK and was widely as expected, with the annual rate accelerating from 2.6% to 2.9% largely due to the rise of utility bills reflecting the 13% increase in the OFGEM price cap due to rising energy prices."
"The good news was that services prices fell as expected from 3.6% to 3.4% which paints a favourable picture of domestically generated inflation. The headline increase of 2.9% is a little higher than the 2.8% expected from the BoE but that’s close enough to view this data as broadly neutral from a markets perspective. The BoE assumes a peak of 3.2% in Q4."
"The data followed the employment data yesterday that showed slightly stronger headline wage growth although the private sector ex-bonus earnings increase slowed from 2.9% to 2.8%. With demand for labour still weak (PAYE employment fell 13k) the data still paints a picture of easing inflationary risks coming from the UK labour market."
"Combining the jobs and inflation data, this data is unlikely to alter the dial much in terms of BoE thinking. The MPC will remain divided and the risks ahead will still be determined more by the external Middle East factor driving energy prices with domestic conditions still likely viewed as offsetting those risks."
"If there is no resolution to getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and energy prices rise further from here and stay elevated then the BoE may well have to hike by year-end. If energy prices fall, the BoE will be able to hold off."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
