Forex News
- USD/CAD moved lower despite easing Middle East tensions pressuring oil and the Canadian Dollar.
- US Dollar struggles amid easing safe-haven demand due to Middle East tension relief.
- Strong US GDP and labor data limit deeper USD losses despite falling Fed hike probabilities.
USD/CAD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3970 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates despite renewed Middle East diplomatic efforts easing pressure on oil markets, placing downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Crude oil prices held steady following a Wall Street Journal report disclosing that US Vice President JD Vance reached out on Wednesday to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks. US President Donald Trump confirmed he approved Vance's diplomatic outreach, adding that Iran needs assistance with medical supplies and other essential resources.
The US Dollar (USD) faces pressure on easing safe-haven demand amid hopes for US-led diplomatic peace talks. Easing Middle East tensions have helped offset oil supply and inflationary concerns, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its December meeting. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down from 84.2% a day prior.
However, recent US economic data highlights continued resilience and increased Fed rate hike bets. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product printed at 3.4% YoY, beating expectations of 3.2% and rising from Q2's 2.2% reading, driven by strong consumer spending at 3.8% YoY. Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims dipped slightly to 194K, reinforcing signs of a heating economy and a tight labor market.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3970, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term and medium-term moving average cluster, suggesting upside is capped for the moment, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 leans toward weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the nine-day EMA at 1.4027, followed by the fifty-day EMA at 1.4057, with a more significant barrier at the horizontal level near 1.4300. On the downside, initial support appears at the 1.3732 horizontal floor, ahead of a deeper structural level at 1.3482, where buyers would be expected to show stronger interest if the current decline extends.
BoC hike seen as modestly hawkish, nudging rate expectations higher
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the Bank of Canada’s mid-week move was not only about the decision itself but also about the tone accompanying it. They highlight that the BoC’s hike on Wednesday was “delivered with a modestly hawkish message” which, in their view, “ultimately delivered a slight boost in rate expectations across the curve,” reinforcing support for the Canadian Dollar against its commodity peers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/USD scales higher for the third straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- The ECB’s hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the Euro and spot prices amid a weak USD.
- Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties could limit USD losses and cap gains for the pair.
The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.1100 neighborhood, or a fresh low since May 2025, gaining positive traction for the third straight day on Friday. The momentum lifts spot prices further beyond the 1.1200 mark during the Asian session and is supported by a combination of factors.
The shared currency draws support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish outlook, signaling that a rate hike in December is firmly in play as inflation risks were on the rise from surging energy costs. The US Dollar (USD) is seen extending its retracement slide from a two-week high amid hopes for Middle East diplomacy and a slump in US bond yields, providing an additional boost to the EUR/USD pair.
In the latest developments, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, in an effort to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel. However, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, Iran's navy claimed Thursday that four oil tankers had struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to worries about supply disruptions in the Middle East. The uncertainty remains supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit USD losses and cap any meaningful gains for the EUR/USD pair.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. The bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's US macro data, which showed that economic growth accelerated to a 3.4% annualized pace during the July-September quarter and Inflation continued to run above the central bank's 2% target in September.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop backs the case for the emergence of some USD dip-buying, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the EUR/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for further gains. Traders now look to the euro area's first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and consumer inflation figures for short-term opportunities.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair stalls its recovery move near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The failure to reclaim this EMA suggests spot prices remain capped in the short term despite the recent repeated rebounds from the vicinity of the 1.1100 round figure. Hence, a sustained break above the 100-period EMA at 1.1211 would be needed to ease downside pressure and allow for a more constructive recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.39% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.00% | 0.09% | 0.16% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.15% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.08% | 0.15% | -0.24% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.33% | |
| NZD | -0.00% | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.05% | -0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.39% | 0.25% | 0.28% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.33% | 0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Hawkish BoE expectations and rate-hike forecasts drive upside momentum for the British Pound.
- Easing safe-haven demand and Middle East tension relief weigh heavily on the US Dollar.
- Strong US GDP and labor data limit deeper USD losses despite falling Fed hike probabilities.
GBP/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the British Pound (GBP) gains ground on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming policy decision next week.
Traders expect the BoE to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in November, followed by another increase in February. Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister John Healey announced plans to raise rates on banks, gambling, savers, landlords, and online shopping, while also setting out measures to combat high energy prices.
Adding to the GBP/USD pair's upward momentum, the US Dollar (USD) faces pressure as easing safe-haven demand weighs on the greenback amid hopes for US-led diplomatic peace talks. Easing Middle East tensions have helped offset oil supply and inflationary concerns, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at its December meeting. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down from 84.2% a day prior.
Despite the Dollar's recent headwinds, recent US economic data highlights continued resilience. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product printed at 3.4% YoY, beating expectations of 3.2% and rising from Q2's 2.2% reading, driven by strong consumer spending at 3.8% YoY. Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims dipped slightly to 194K, reinforcing signs of a heating economy and a tight labor market.
Warsh doubles down on price stability pledge, keeping Dollar bulls engaged
Warsh’s press conference tone is firmly hawkish, with the 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score in line relative to the historical average, but reinforced by repeated, uncompromising commitments to delivering 2% PCE price stability. The emphasis that “ensuring price stability is not about a fixed date on a calendar” and that “new monetary medicine” is working, alongside comfort with inflation expectations and tightening financial conditions, signals a data-dependent but resolutely anti-inflation stance that supports the Dollar. References to widening credit spreads, the impact of higher rates on technology and AI, and broadening capex suggest confidence that policy is biting without yet threatening the expansion, which keeps the Fed biased toward maintaining restrictive settings.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by +14.39 points to 141.89, firmly in hawkish territory and well above the neutral 100 threshold, consistent with the strong anti-inflation messaging captured by the FXS Speechtracker. This elevated index level underscores that markets should interpret Warsh’s remarks as reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate narrative, a backdrop that is typically supportive for the Dollar versus the Euro and Yen.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The BoJ is expected to hold interest rates steady at 1.25% on Friday.
- The interest of investors will be on the BoJ’s future rate path..
- USD/JPY has been consolidating within 156-159 for the last six weeks.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Friday at around 02:30 GMT.
Like the Federal Reserve (Fed), financial markets are confident that the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged, after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% in the September policy meeting. This is the highest interest rate level seen in 31 years in Japan. So far this year, the BoJ has delivered two quarter-to-a-percent interest rate hikes.
Commerzbank said in a note that markets anticipate “the overnight rate remaining steady, and none of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expects a hike on Friday”. This consensus view leaves investors focusing more on the monetary policy statement, the central bank’s outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for the policy outlook into year-end.
Ueda leaned hawkish as AI demand and inflation near BoJ goals
BoJ Governor Ueda’s remarks after the September policy meeting have shown his concern about energy-driven inflationary risks. Ueda has also stressed the importance of anchoring core inflation near the 2% target. He has reiterated several times that the central bank will remain on the monetary tightening path.
Ueda’s speech on October 16 was scored at 8.2/10 versus by FXStreet’s Speechtracker, signaling a modest hawkish tilt compared to Ueda’s average 7.5 score. Ueda stressed that underlying inflation is “quite close” to 2% and that economic and price moves are roughly in line with forecasts. The commitment to “continue to raise interest rates” while financial conditions remain accommodative, and the plan to discuss whether to tweak the assessment of inflation approaching 2%, reinforced a gradual normalization bias that supports a firmer Yen backdrop.
Ueda’s remark that there is “no big gap” between the Bank of Japan’s view on AI-driven inflationary pressure and that of global policymakers, alongside noting some counterparts are more bullish on AI demand, underscores upside risks to prices that justify keeping a tightening path on the table. By explicitly tying the timing and pace of future rate hikes to FX, AI demand and Middle East developments, the speech framed a data- and risk-sensitive reaction function that is incrementally supportive for the Japanese Yen, especially if AI-related demand and external shocks sustain inflation around the 2% target.
These comments suggest that BoJ’s Ueda will remain hawkish on the monetary policy outlook and will highlight the importance of keeping price pressures anchored near the central bank’s 2% target.
What are expectations for December’s policy meeting?
According to the October 13-19 Reuters’ poll, nearly 70% of economists, 54 of 78, expected the BoJ to raise its policy rate to 1.5% this quarter, almost double the share in the previous poll, Reuters reported. The consensus is for another hike before the year end.
How can USD/JPY react to the BoJ’s decision?
The BoJ’s interest rate decision itself appears to be a non-event for the USD/JPY pair, given that market participants are highly confident about policy rates remaining steady. What will be impactful would be the tone in the BoJ’s monetary policy outlook and any cues on where they see the terminal rate.
Any indication from the BoJ that it could approach the terminal rate faster would be favorable for the Japanese Yen (JPY). On the contrary, signs from the Japanese central bank that it would pursue a gradual monetary tightening path could have little impact on the Japanese currency. Therefore, risks are moderately tilted to the downside for USD/JPY.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Trading within range, volatility contracted
Trend: At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at around 157.80. The USD/JPY pair has remained in a limited range between 156.08 and 159.04 for over a month. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 157.77 is flat-lined, reflecting that the overall trend is sideways.
Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been inside the 40.00-60.00 range for a month, indicating a sharp volatility contraction and reinforcing the current consolidation.
Support: On the downside ,the lower-end of the above-mentioned range at 156.08 is the immediate support. The pair would get exposed to the September 14 high at 155.00 if it fails to hold 156.08.
Resistance: Looking up, the immediate hurdle for the pair is the upper-end of the consolidation near 159.04; a decisive break above that would increase the likelihood of further upside towards 160.00, followed by the September high near 160.40.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7138 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7147 and 6.6548 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- NZD/USD struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from the post-RBNZ swing low.
- Falling bond yields and Iram diplomacy hopes weigh on the USD, supporting the pair.
- The fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders and backs the case for further losses.
The NZD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest uptick and stalling its bounce from a two-week low, touched after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5630-0.5625 region and remain on track to register heavy losses for the first time in the previous three weeks.
The RBNZ unexpectedly left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, disappointing investors who had priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike. Four members, including RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, preferred to hold and assess the lag effects of previous rate hikes in July and September, overshadowing the committee's tightening bias and acting as a headwind for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). That said, the downside for the NZD/USD pair seems cushioned as the US Dollar (USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day.
Renewed hopes of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran prompt traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium, which is evident from a steep decline in US bond yields and weighs on the safe-haven buck. That said, investors remain wary amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, and escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty remains supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit USD losses.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December. The bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's US macro data, which showed that economic growth accelerated to a 3.4% annualized pace during the third quarter and inflation rose in September. This, in turn, backs the case for the emergence of some USD buying at lower levels, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside and any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to be sold into.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.15% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.48% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.30% | 0.28% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.25% | 0.24% | -0.33% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.37% | 0.37% | -0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.14% | 0.23% | 0.23% | -0.34% | |
| AUD | -0.09% | -0.30% | -0.25% | -0.37% | -0.23% | -0.01% | -0.56% | |
| NZD | -0.09% | -0.28% | -0.24% | -0.37% | -0.23% | 0.00% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | 0.48% | 0.28% | 0.33% | 0.20% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- WTI price flatlines near $101.85 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- US Vice President Vance reaches out to Iran, according to WSJ.
- Houthis says they had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $101.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI price holds steady as diplomacy hopes for peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran offset some Middle East supply concerns.
The Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday reached out to Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to revive peace negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Trump said that he approved Vance's outreach, stating that they "need help with medical supplies and various things.”
Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding hopes for peace talks between the US-Iran and concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from an escalating regional conflict.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, and the Rabigh refinery on the country's Red Sea coast.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea also said that two other operations targeted King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh with missiles, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam in the Eastern Province with a drone.
“Those reports of a new spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.
Oil trades cautious optimism as Middle East risk and energy inflation unsettle central banks
Analysts at Rabobank highlight that “uncertainty about the Middle East conflict continues to linger over markets,” with President Trump keeping “the option of escalation after the midterms on the table.” They note that US officials have reportedly warned several regional allies “to prepare for potential military strikes after the US polls, and the possibility that Iran may retaliate.”
At the same time, Rabobank points to “reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts.” Citing the Wall Street Journal, they observe that Vice President Vance has “reached out to the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” reportedly at Trump’s request “in an attempt to restart diplomatic channels.”
Against this backdrop, Rabobank judges that “oil markets currently seem to be trading the cautiously optimistic side of this binary outcome,” even as “the protracted energy inflation has global central bankers less optimistic.”
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends its bullish bias as price holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. The contract is advancing toward the upper Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.84 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive though vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band at $105.55, where fresh supply could emerge if buyers attempt another leg higher. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA around $96.15, ahead of a broader demand zone defined by the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50, levels that would be expected to cushion deeper corrective pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- USD/JPY's release bar stays inside its range since a session low near 157.50.
- Core Tokyo inflation comes in at the 2.6% forecast, down from 2.7%.
- BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Friday after the decision and a new Outlook Report.
Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose 2.6% from a year earlier in October, exactly as forecast, and USD/JPY has barely moved on it. It's trading in the lower part of the session's range, a little above a low set before the figures came out.
Headline inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.7%, but prices excluding fresh food and energy slowed to 2.6% from 3%, undoing two-fifths of September's full-point rise. The first adds to the case for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike that would narrow USD/JPY's rate gap, and the second takes from it. A Friday hold was widely expected before either came out.
Japan's jobless rate fell to 2.4% in September against a 2.5% forecast, and employers had 1.19 jobs on offer per applicant, up from 1.18. Both came out with the Tokyo figures, and USD/JPY had climbed further off its session low before any of them than it has moved since.
On the calendar
The BoJ's decision is due around 03:00 GMT on Friday with its quarterly Outlook Report, the first since September's hike. BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference follows at 06:30 GMT, and both bear on the pace of further hikes, the Japanese side of the rate gap.
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the third quarter is due at 12:30 GMT on Friday, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) follows at 13:45 GMT. Both feed the Fed's December decision, where a hike would widen the gap between US and Japanese rates.
On the charts
The session's range runs from a high just above 158.00 to a low just above 157.50, and USD/JPY has made back about a fifth of the slide between them. Intraday momentum has gone from oversold before the low to overbought on the climb.
USD/JPY 5-minute chart
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- AUD/USD slips to 0.7020 after rejection at key moving averages.
- Break below 100-day SMA at 0.7032 reinforces bearish technical outlook.
- Strong US GDP and elevated Core PCE inflation pressure Aussie buyers.
The Australian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar on Thursday after encountering a key resistance confluence at the 50- and 200-day SMAs, while strong US data reaffirmed the economy’s strength, which could increase the chances of higher interest rates. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7020.
AUD/USD retreats from the 50- and 200-day SMA confluence, with a break below 0.7032 signaling further downside
Wall Street ended the session in the red, reflecting a sour market mood. US data revealed that the economy grew 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, exceeding forecasts and prior readings of 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively. At the same time, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, increased by 3.1% in September, as expected, up from 3% in the prior month.
The data tranche included Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24, which dipped from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of a rise to 199K.
On the data, AUD/USD extended its losses below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, opening the door to further downside. Worth noting that investors had trimmed their Fed hawkish bets compared to Wednesday. At the time of writing, the odds are 76% down from 84% a day ago, revealed Prime Terminal.
This happened amid rising hopes of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, fell by about 0.13% to $102.71 as the Asian session is underway.
US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield retreating 6.5 basis points to 4.907%. In part due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lack of forward guidance, with him focused mostly on operations rather than monetary policy.
Warsh said that the appropriate number of meetings for the FOMC is eight, but in 2027 there would be seven monetary policy decisions, followed by six in 2028.
In Australia, Thursday’s schedule was empty, except for RBA Governor Bullock speech, in which she said that inflation is far too high, recognising that CPI is consistent with upside inflation risks.
On Friday, the Aussie’s docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Q3 on an annual basis. In the previous quarter, the reading was 3.6%. The US calendar will feature a speech by San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7024, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the latest reading of the simple moving average triple at 0.7069. The pair is slipping back toward the lower end of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.33 sits just above neutral, hinting at modest, rather than decisive, upside momentum amid prevailing downside structural pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the clustered 50/100/200-period simple moving averages around 0.7069, followed by the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, with the broader downward trend line from 0.8015 reinforcing a cap on rallies at higher levels. On the downside, price action is underpinned by a series of upward-sloping support trend lines drawn from the 0.68–0.69 area, suggesting that while the bias stays bearish below the moving averages, dips into this rising band would likely attract buying interest before any deeper deterioration in the daily structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.46% | -0.39% | 0.19% | 1.17% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.38% | 0.12% | -0.76% | -0.18% | 0.82% | -0.42% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.44% | -0.38% | 0.20% | 1.26% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.12% | -0.44% | -0.82% | -0.32% | 0.75% | -0.62% | |
| CAD | 0.39% | 0.76% | 0.38% | 0.82% | 0.53% | 1.52% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | 0.18% | -0.20% | 0.32% | -0.53% | 1.00% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | -1.17% | -0.82% | -1.26% | -0.75% | -1.52% | -1.00% | -1.26% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.62% | -0.31% | 0.45% | 1.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that it had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia, Xinhua News Agency reported.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea stated that three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, and the Rabigh refinery on the country's Red Sea coast.
The source said two other operations targeted King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, with missiles, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam in the Eastern Province with a drone.
Houthi military spokesman said that the attacks were launched in response to recent Saudi strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.54% on the day at $101.80.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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