Forex News
ING’s commodities strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say Gold is pushing higher as markets react to escalating tensions between the US, Israel and Iran. They stress that Gold’s safe-haven role is reinforced by contained real yields, strong central bank buying and expectations of policy easing, suggesting any downside should be limited even if tensions stabilise.
Safe haven demand underpinned by risks
"Gold is pushing higher on Monday as markets reopen to the weekend’s escalation between the US, Israel and Iran. Renewed tensions inject a fresh geopolitical risk premium at a time when investor positioning was already constructive."
"This reinforces gold’s role as a preferred hedge. Near-term price action is likely to remain headline-driven, with volatility elevated."
"If higher crude prices lift inflation expectations, while growth risks rise, real yields are likely to remain contained – and supportive for gold. A firmer dollar, however, could slow the pace of gains."
"A regional spillover or disruption to energy supplies would materially boost gold through higher oil prices, increased inflation expectations and contained real yields. Sustained uncertainty would keep volatility and safe-haven demand elevated. By contrast, if tensions remain contained and energy flows are unaffected, the initial risk-off move should fade as the oil risk premium unwinds."
"This reinforces, rather than changes, the broader gold narrative. Central bank buying remains strong and expectations of policy easing later this year continue to underpin the market. Even if tensions stabilise, these structural drivers suggest downside should be limited, with any pullbacks likely to be shallow rather than trend-reversing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Indian Rupee falls sharply to near 91.80 against the US Dollar amid the US-Iran war.
- Middle East tensions have spiked the oil prices and triggered risk-off market sentiment.
- India’s Q4 GDP registers a strong 7.8% growth against estimates of 7.2%.
The Indian Rupee (INR) starts the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/INR pair rising 0.25% to near 91.80 amid sour market sentiment and surging oil prices due to a brutal war between the United States (US) and Iran.
S&P 500 futures trade sharply lower, and Asian stock markets plunge in the Asian trade on Monday, demonstrating a risk-off market sentiment.
The oil prices soar following reports of two attacks on tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran war. WTI futures on the NYMEX are up over 4% to near $70, the highest level seen in over seven months. Currencies from countries like India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs remain highly sensitive to changes in oil prices.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.95% | 1.06% | 0.66% | 0.24% | 1.01% | 0.49% | 0.61% | |
| EUR | -0.95% | 0.11% | -0.28% | -0.70% | 0.06% | -0.46% | -0.35% | |
| GBP | -1.06% | -0.11% | -0.40% | -0.82% | -0.05% | -0.56% | -0.43% | |
| JPY | -0.66% | 0.28% | 0.40% | -0.40% | 0.36% | -0.15% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | 0.70% | 0.82% | 0.40% | 0.77% | 0.27% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -1.01% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.77% | -0.51% | -0.39% | |
| INR | -0.49% | 0.46% | 0.56% | 0.15% | -0.27% | 0.51% | 0.13% | |
| CHF | -0.61% | 0.35% | 0.43% | 0.02% | -0.38% | 0.39% | -0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Over the weekend, Israel and the US military launched a series of strikes against Iran in which their 48 leaders, including top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed, according to Fox News.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases across the Middle East and several West Asian countries.
Meanwhile, Tehran has announced Ayatollah Alireza Arafi as its interim leader after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On the domestic front, India’s Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has surprised markets after registering a 7.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) growth, faster than estimates of 7.2%, but slower than 8.2% in the third quarter of 2025.
After strong Q4 numbers, India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has revised GDP growth for the entire Financial Year (FY) 2026-27 to 7%-7.4% from the 6.8%-7.2% projected last month.
During the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 97.85 amid a risk-off mood. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be released on Friday.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR aims to revisit all-time high around 92.50
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USD/INR jumps to near 91.75 in the opening trade on Monday, the highest level seen in a month. The pair demonstrates a mild bullish bias as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which is starting to edge higher again after a period of consolidation.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps vertically to 65.00 after consolidating in the 40.00-60.00 range for a month, hinting at the onset of a fresh bullish momentum.
As long as the pair stays above the 20-day EMA, the odds remain high that it could revisit the all-time high of 92.50. On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 91.05 forms first support, with a deeper pullback exposing the late-February trough at 90.60. A daily close below 90.60 would negate the current bullish bias and shift focus toward the 90.25 zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Gold opens with a bullish gap as escalating Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven assets.
- The intraday move up seems unaffected by a strong pickup in demand for the US Dollar.
- Stagflation fears further underpin the XAU/USD pair and contribute to the positive move.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to strong intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades above the $5,400 mark, or its highest level since late January. Investors are rapidly abandoning riskier assets and opting for safe-haven investments amid an intense wave of the global risk-aversion trade.
A dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in West Asia over the weekend unsettles global markets. In fact, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military strike on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Adding to this, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced the closure of a critical maritime chokepoint – the Strait of Hormuz – and raised the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East. This, in turn, provides a strong boost to the traditional safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week.
Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), released on Friday, revived concerns about still sticky inflation. Furthermore, slowing economic growth creates a scenario where the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot cut interest rates without reigniting inflation or hold without slowing the economy further. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold, though a strong intraday US Dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since January 23 might cap further gains.
Traders this week will confront important US macro releases, scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. This will be followed by the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments, which will have a significant impact on the global risk sentiment and play a key role in driving demand for the safe-haven Gold.
Gold seems poised to climb further amid a bullish technical setup
Against the backdrop of last week's breakout above the $5,200 horizontal barrier, the strong move up on Monday favors the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above its signal in positive territory, with the histogram expanding, which supports building bullish momentum after the latest leg higher.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index at 68.88 hovers just below overbought territory, showing firm but not extreme upside pressure. Initial support emerges near $5,260, where the latest consolidation area begins, followed by a deeper floor around $5,210, guarding the prior congestion band. A break below $5,210 would expose $5,180 as the next downside level.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the recent spike high around $5,390. A sustained push above $5,390 would open the way for an extension of the uptrend, while a failure to clear this barrier would keep XAU/USD vulnerable to a corrective pullback toward the cited supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Dow Jones futures decline as Middle East tensions escalate.
- Israel struck Beirut after Hezbollah fired missiles, following coordinated US-Israel attacks on Iran over the weekend.
- Wall Street fell on Friday as traders feared rapid AI adoption could sideline traditional software companies.
Dow Jones futures fall 1.43% to near 48,300 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 1.42% and 1.74% to near 6,790 and 24,570 at the time of writing.
US stock futures fell as tensions in the Middle East intensified. Israel launched heavy strikes on Beirut after Hezbollah fired missiles across the border early Monday, following coordinated US-Israel attacks on Iran over the weekend that reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Israeli military also issued evacuation orders for several Lebanese towns.
US President Donald Trump said hundreds of targets were struck, including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defense systems, nine vessels, and naval infrastructure, adding that operations will continue until all objectives are met.
Tehran responded by targeting US assets across the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy also announced a halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that carries more than 20% of global oil supplies.
On Friday’s regular US session, Wall Street closed lower as investors grew concerned that rapid AI adoption could displace traditional software providers. The Dow Jones dropped 1.05%, the S&P 500 declined 0.43%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.92%.
Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US inflation data suggested firms are passing tariff costs on to consumers, further clouding the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, Fed Governor Mi Lan called for significant interest rate cuts as soon as possible, arguing that underlying price pressures remain subdued and that persistently high rates reflect distortions in inflation measurement.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- AUD/USD plunges amid the US-Iran war as antipodeans plummet.
- Middle East tensions have increased the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar.
- Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and RBA Bullock’s speech.
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.85% lower to near 0.7050 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair plummets as risk-off market sentiment amid the United States (US)-Iran war has weighed heavily on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.90% | 1.01% | 0.66% | 0.21% | 0.98% | 1.06% | 0.53% | |
| EUR | -0.90% | 0.10% | -0.22% | -0.69% | 0.07% | 0.16% | -0.36% | |
| GBP | -1.01% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.79% | -0.03% | 0.06% | -0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.66% | 0.22% | 0.34% | -0.44% | 0.32% | 0.41% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.21% | 0.69% | 0.79% | 0.44% | 0.77% | 0.85% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | -0.98% | -0.07% | 0.03% | -0.32% | -0.77% | 0.10% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | -1.06% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.41% | -0.85% | -0.10% | -0.53% | |
| CHF | -0.53% | 0.36% | 0.47% | 0.12% | -0.32% | 0.44% | 0.53% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Investors shift to the safe-haven fleet as retaliatory attacks by Iran for the killing of their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.8% higher to near 98.45, the highest level seen in over a month.
Going forward, major triggers for the US Dollar will be a slew of US labor market-related and ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for February, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in lower at 52.3 from 52.6 in January.
In Australia, investors will focus on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s speech on Tuesday.
AUD/USD technical analysis
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AUD/USD trades sharply lower at 0.7050 at the press time. The pair has corrected to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.7050. Near-term bias is still bullish as price holds above the rising 20-day EMA, keeping the broader upswing from late January intact despite recent consolidation off the 0.71 area.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated toward 56 from a bullish range of 60.00-60.00, signalling cooled momentum rather than a reversal.
Initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 0.7050, with a break exposing the mid-February reaction low around 0.6990 and then the February 6 low around 0.6900 area as deeper downside levels. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at 0.7120, the recent swing high, followed by the 0.7150 zone, where a clear break would reopen the advance toward the 0.72 handle and confirm an extension of the prevailing daily uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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