Forex News
- Silver benefits from renewed risk-off sentiment as global equities retreat.
- Persistent divergence within the Fed complicates expectations for upcoming policy decisions.
- Traders await delayed US data releases, especially Thursday’s September NFP report.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Tuesday, trading around $50.70 at the time of writing, up 1.00% on the day. The precious metal is supported by a broad risk-off tone across markets, with investors favoring safe-haven exposure as risk assets come under pressure. This cautious mood comes ahead of long-delayed US economic releases, most notably the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Thursday.
Global equities are broadly lower, fueling demand for defensive assets. Investors remain hesitant as the flow of US macroeconomic indicators has been disrupted in recent weeks, complicating assessments of real-time labor market momentum. The upcoming NFP report keeps market participants on hold, mechanically reinforcing the appeal of precious metals.
Diverging commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials adds another layer of uncertainty. Governor Christopher Waller struck a distinctly dovish tone, describing the labor market as “weak” and near “stall-speed.” He reiterated that a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting would provide “additional insurance” against the economic slowdown. By contrast, several other Fed members signaled caution, arguing that it may still be premature to ease policy while inflation remains above target.
This divergence is reflected in market pricing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a December rate cut now stands at 46.6%, down sharply from 66.9% one week earlier. Investors expect the gradual release of the statistical backlog to improve visibility. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 232,000, while Continuing Claims rose to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18, reinforcing signs of cooling labor conditions.
In this environment of partial macro uncertainty, Silver benefits from its safe-haven characteristics. Expectations of medium-term monetary easing from the Fed, although reduced, continue to provide structural support for the metal, while political and economic uncertainty sustains steady but cautious demand.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/CHF extends its recovery for the third straight day as traders digest mixed US economic data.
- Fed commentary diverges, as Waller supports a December cut while Barkin remains cautious.
- Markets await the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data, which is likely to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with USD/CHF extending gains for the third straight day as traders digest the latest batch of US economic data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7997, rebounding from an intraday low of 0.7937, as the Greenback holds firm.
The latest batch of US economic data offered a mixed picture. ADP figures showed private payrolls falling by an average of 2,500 per week in the four weeks to November 1, after an 11.25K decline in the prior period, reinforcing signs of a weakening labor market. Meanwhile, August Factory Orders rose 1.4% MoM, in line with expectations and reversing July’s 1.3% drop, pointing to a mild pickup in manufacturing activity.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.62, recovering from an earlier dip to 99.40.
The labor market remained in focus as traders await the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Thursday. The US Department of Labor has begun releasing the backlog of missed weekly Jobless Claims data. Initial claims came in at 232K, while continuing claims rose to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18.
Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary added another layer to the narrative. Fed Governor Christopher Waller struck a notably dovish tone, describing the US labor market as “weak” and “near stall-speed.” He suggested that restrictive policy may now be weighing on the economy and said he supports a 25 bps rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting to provide “additional insurance” for the labor market.
In contrast, Fed’s Thomas Barkin offered a more balanced assessment, noting that “it’s hard to declare victory on either mandate” and stressing that inflation, while above target, is unlikely to re-accelerate. Barkin acknowledged that the labor market is softening but argued it may not weaken much further, adding that the jobs market appears “somewhat weaker than the data suggests.”
On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to face headwinds from a strong Franc, weak domestic inflation and modest economic growth. In comments made earlier this month, SNB Board member Petra Tschudin said the central bank is “in a good position with current interest rates,” noting that inflation forecasts remain within its 0-2% target range. She also noted that the SNB does not see a case for cutting rates below zero for now, although such a move cannot be ruled out if conditions change.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.16% | -0.39% | -0.19% | -0.07% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.46% | -0.27% | -0.14% | 0.30% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.02% | 0.10% | -0.44% | -0.25% | -0.11% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.53% | -0.33% | -0.22% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | 0.39% | 0.46% | 0.44% | 0.53% | 0.19% | 0.32% | 0.76% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.25% | 0.33% | -0.19% | 0.13% | 0.57% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.22% | -0.32% | -0.13% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.23% | -0.76% | -0.57% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The Australian Dollar steadies after hawkish-leaning RBA Minutes.
- Fresh US data point to a cooling labor market.
- AUD/USD trades steady ahead of Australia’s Wage Price Index and the delayed US NFP report.
AUD/USD trades steady on Tuesday, around 0.6490 at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day. The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains a mild upward bias after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published Minutes showing policymakers see no urgency to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) as domestic demand remains robust and inflation pressures persist. However, the central bank also noted that monetary easing could be considered if growth weakens further or if labor-market conditions deteriorate materially.
Markets now turn their attention to Australia’s third-quarter Wage Price Index, due Wednesday, with expectations for a 0.8% QoQ and 3.4% YoY increase. A result in line with forecasts would reinforce the view of a cautious, data-dependent RBA, limiting the prospects of rapid rate cuts.
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain momentum after several mixed data releases earlier in the day. ADP figures showed that private-sector payrolls declined by an average of 2,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 1, following a sharper drop in the previous period. Meanwhile, the latest Initial Jobless Claims, for the week of October 18, came in at 232,000, while Continuing Claims climbed to 1.957 million, both pointing to a softening labor market. Added to this, August Factory Orders rose 1.4% after a 1.3% contraction in July, though the rebound had little market impact.
These indicators come as investors await Thursday’s delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September, a key release for refining expectations around Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price in around a 43% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, reflecting heightened caution as the economic outlook cools.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.30% | -0.07% | 0.01% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | -0.11% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.41% | -0.18% | -0.10% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.42% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.12% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.42% | -0.20% | -0.12% | 0.27% | |
| CAD | 0.30% | 0.41% | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 0.69% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.23% | 0.08% | 0.47% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.12% | -0.31% | -0.08% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | -0.29% | -0.27% | -0.27% | -0.69% | -0.47% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin spoke about the economic outlook at the Top of Virginia Economic Summit hosted by Shenandoah University on Tuesday. He claimed that the labor market seems balanced, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs warrant caution.
Key quotes
There is still pressure on both sides of the US central bank's mandate.
He hopes coming data, along with community surveys, will provide clarity on direction of economy.
Inflation is above target but isn't likely to increase, with consumer push-back, productivity Improvements helping it slow.
Job growth is down, but labor supply is also slowing.
There is a lot to learn between now and the next meeting.
Credit card spending and third-quarter earnings remain healthy, but some sectors and consumers are struggling.
Labor market seems in balance, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs are a cause for caution.
In interview says he is not hearing that companies are actively planning further layoffs.
The labor market is softening, but doesn't think it will soften that much more.
Inflation is above target but not likely to accelerate.
It's hard to declare victory on either mandate, but also not clear either requires a response.
Inflation does not appear headed higher, but also not clear it is heading back to 2%; Unemployment likely to edge higher but perhaps not by much.
Without compelling data it is hard to get a broad consensus.
The upside of more consensus is the ability of markets to set expectations.
Prior beliefs about issues like tariffs are not evidence of politicization.
Policy is still modestly restrictive."
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.31% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.34% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.05% | 0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.42% | -0.12% | -0.07% | 0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.39% | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.27% | |
| CAD | 0.31% | 0.40% | 0.42% | 0.39% | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.66% | |
| AUD | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.09% | -0.30% | 0.04% | 0.36% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.34% | -0.04% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.34% | -0.26% | -0.24% | -0.27% | -0.66% | -0.36% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
balanced, but firms say labor is available, and recent layoffs warrant
- The Euro returns to levels right above the 1.1600 level after bottoming around 1.1580.
- US businesses continued laying off workers in October, according to ADP employment data.
- US Factory Orders bounced up in August, retracing July's contraction.
EUR/USD returns to levels above 1.1600 at the time of writing, after bouncing from weekly lows right below 1.1580, and turns positive on daily charts. The pair has drawn some support from downbeat US employment data, but traders remain reluctant about placing large US Dollar (USD) shorts, ahead of a backlog of US economic reports due later this week.
US private employment data released on Tuesday revealed that businesses shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on November 1. This is a better figure than the 11,250 average posted the previous week, but still reflects a weakening labour market, and adds pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further in the coming meetings.
On the positive side, US Factory Orders delayed data revealed a 1.4% increase in August, in line with the market consensus, to offset the 1.3% decline seen in the previous month. The impact of this data on the US Dollar, however, was minimal.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michael Barr is speaking at the moment, and later on, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will take the stage. Investors, however, are likely to remain cautious, ahead of September's Nonfarm Payrolls report, due on Thursday.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.32% | -0.06% | -0.01% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.21% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.02% | 0.02% | -0.22% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.15% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.25% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.32% | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.31% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.26% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.01% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.31% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.38% | -0.11% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Currencies waver within range amid cautious markets
- The Euro (EUR) recovers some of the previous losses but remains trading within a narrow range. Traders await more US data for a clearer picture of the US economy and the Fed's monetary easing prospects.
- On Monday, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index beat expectations with an increase to 18.7 in November, from October's10.7 reading and against market expectations of a deterioration to 6.0
- In the same line, Construction Spending rose 0.2% in August, according to a delayed release from the US Census Bureau, beating expectations of a 0.1% decline. Apart from that, July's reading was revised up to a 0.2% gain from the 0.1% contraction previously reported.
- August's factory orders are expected to bounce to a 1.4% increase, compared to the 1.3% decline seen in July, the last release before the US government shutdown.
- Apart from that, speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin might give some more clues about the outcome of December's meeting.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains under pressure with 1.1580 on sight
EUR/USD has returned above the 1.1600 level, but recovery attempts remain frail so far. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is attempting to cross above the key 50 level, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps posting red bars.
Looking from a wider perspective, the pair is retreating from a trendline resistance with session lows at 1.1580 still at a short distance. Further down, the November 7, 10, and 11 lows in the 1.1535-1.1545 area would come to focus, ahead of the November 5 lows, near 1.1470.
To the upside, a previous support area around 1.1610 is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the top of the bearish channel, which now lies at the 1.1635 area. Above, the October 28 and 29 highs around 1.1670 would come into focus.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change 4-week average
The preliminary ADP weekly estimate, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Nov 18, 2025 13:15
Frequency: Weekly
Actual: -2.5K
Consensus: -
Previous: -11.25K
Source: ADP Research Institute
The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill spoke at an interview with Reuters in the Bank of England in London on Tuesday. He said that underlying inflation dynamics in the UK are lower than headline inflation suggests and that policymakers should be cautious about over-interpreting.latest changes in key data
Key takeaways
Underlying inflation dynamics in the UK are lower than headline inflation suggests.
Policymakers should be cautious about over-interpreting latest changes in key data.
We haven't seen the moderation in key nominal data that we would have expected in the past. Recent private-sector surveys have presented a less bearish picture of the economy than official figures.
I expect the QE portfolio held for monetary policy purposes to be wound down to a very low level.”
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Gold steadies as risk-off sentiment sparks mild safe-haven flows.
- Global equities slide, with tech-led losses driving caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.
- Traders await delayed US data releases, including September NFP on Thursday.
Gold (XAU/USD) steadies on Tuesday as risk-off sentiment across global markets prompts a mild pickup in safe-haven demand. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,060, bouncing back after slipping to $3,998 earlier in the Asian session.
The risk-off tone is being driven by broad equity weakness, with global stocks sliding after a sharp tech-led selloff spilled over from Wall Street into Asia and Europe. Investors are pulling back as worries build around stretched AI valuations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.
However, the upside in Gold remains constrained amid diverging views among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding a December rate cut. Traders are also refraining from taking large directional positions ahead of the delayed US economic data, keeping momentum subdued.
Market movers: Fed divergence sharpens as labor trend weakens
- ADP data showed US private payrolls fell by an average of 2,500 per week in the four weeks to November 1, after an 11.25K decline in the prior period. Meanwhile, August Factory Orders rose 1.4% MoM, meeting estimates and reversing the 1.3% drop seen in July.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller struck a notably dovish tone on Tuesday, saying the US labor market is “weak” and “near stall-speed.” He noted that restrictive policy appears to be weighing on the economy and reiterated that a 25 bps rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting would provide “additional insurance” for the labor market. Waller added that inflation expectations remain well-anchored and that underlying inflation is now close to the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing his case for earlier easing. His stance contrasts with several Fed officials last week, who signaled caution on cutting rates while inflation remains elevated.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 46.6% probability of a December rate cut, down from 66.9% a week ago. Traders are awaiting the upcoming backlog of US data, especially the September Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report due on Thursday, to reassess the monetary policy outlook.
- The US Department of Labor has started releasing the backlog of missed weekly Jobless Claims data. Initial claims came in at 232K, while continuing claims rose to 1.957 million for the week ending October 18, with the latest figures due on Thursday.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD holds above $4,000 but lacks momentum
Gold’s momentum remains subdued, though dip-buying continues to emerge after bulls successfully defended the $4,000 psychological support. On the upside, XAU/USD faces a confluence resistance zone near $4,050, reinforced by the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
A decisive break above $4,100 would be the first signal of renewed upside traction, with the $4,150 region likely to attract fresh selling pressure given the near-term bearish tone.
On the downside, the $4,000 level remains the key support to watch. A sustained move below this barrier would open the door for a deeper pullback toward $3,900, where buyers may attempt to re-enter.
Momentum indicators align with the soft tone, with the RSI holding below the 50 threshold and hovering near 40, signalling weak buying strength and risk of further consolidation.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
According to the report published on the US Department of Labor's (DOL) website, there were 232,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ended October 18.
Further details of the report showed that Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.957 million in the same period. The last weekly data published by the DOL before the government shutdown had shown that there were 1.916 million Continuing Jobless Claims in the week ended September 13.
Market reaction
These figures don't seem to be having a significant impact on the US Dollar's (USD) valuation. At the time of press, the USD Index was virtually unchanged on the day at 99.48.
- GBP/USD steady as traders assess US labor data and brace for Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
- Fed cut odds rise to 55% as market jitters build ahead of key NVIDIA AI-sector earnings.
- UK CPI and November 26 Autumn Budget in focus, with markets pricing 83% odds of December BoE cut.
The Pound Sterling is steady on Tuesday as traders shift worried about the economic outlook in the US and market participants eyeing crucial NVIDIA earnings for Q3, keeping US equity markets in the red. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3156 virtually unchanged.
Sterling trades steady despite softer US data and rising Fed cut expectations, with UK inflation and Autumn Budget in focus
The US Department of Labor revealed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 18 were 232K, while continuing claims rose to 1.957 million. GBP/USDs was muted on its release with traders eyeing Nonfarm Payrolls data on Thursday.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut rates at the December meeting stand at 55%, higher than last week’s below 50% chances, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Alongside this, traders are awaiting British inflation figures, which could potentially impact the Bank of England’s path on interest rates. Money markets are expecting a rate cut with odds standing at 83%.
Recently BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said measures related to inflation had not slowed as much as he would expect in the past. He said that “I think policymakers should be cautious about over-interpreting the latest news in data, because there is a lot of noise in the data flow, and partly because of some of the challenges our colleagues in the Office for National Statistics have faced.”
Traders are also awaiting the release of the Autumn Budget in November 26. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to raise tens of billions of pounds to meet her fiscal goals, according to analysts.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD daily chart shows the pair consolidating after forming back-to-back doji’s below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3185, acting as key resistance. A breach of the latter clears the path to 1.3200 and higher prices. On the flipside, further downside is seen.
Short-term, the GBP/USD hourly chart shows the pair is subdued, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-SMAs trapped within the 1.3141-1.3158 range, an indication of traders' indecision.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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