Forex News
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Thursday that the administration wants to secure market trust by stably lowering the government debt-to-GDP ratio.
Additional remarks
Government watching markets with very high sense of urgency.
Long-term interest rates are decided in markets based on various factors.
Market reaction
No immediate reaction was seen in the Japanese Yen (JPY) following remarks from Japan's Kihara. At press time, USD/JPY trades 0.17% lower at around 162.35.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD edges up to levels near 1.1440 but remains trapped within previous ranges
- Bright German Trade Balance figures have provided minor support to the Euro.
- Recent price action hints at a potential bearish flag formation.
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, hitting session highs near 1.1440, yet trapped within the weekly range, with the broader bearish trend in play. A softer US Dollar is providing some support to the Euro, but rising geopolitical tensions and the rebound in Oil prices keep weighing on the common currency.
Data from Germany released earlier on Thursday revealed that the Trade Balance surplus increased beyond expectations in May, totalling EUR 19.1 billion, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, with exports growing and imports contracting against expectations. The Euro received a minor boost after the data release.
The US Dollar, on the other hand,is losing ground with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table, despite the escalating tensions. News that Qatar is pressing Iran to implement the MoU agreement and contain the escalation feed hopes of a negotiated end to the war alive and are keeping the Euro from dropping further.
Technical Analysis: Potential bearish flag formation
EUR/USD trades at 1.1435, holding within an upward channel, yet with momentum indicators reflecting a lack of a clear bias. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) keeps wavering around the 50 midline, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flat near zero, altogether hinting at a hesitant market.
Bulls would need to break the top of the last few weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area and preferably the channel top, now around 1.1500, to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the mid-June highs near 1.1620.
A break below Wednesday's lows, at the 1.1390 area, would highlight a bearish flag formation that would be confirmed below the June 24 low in the 1.1330 area. The flag's measured target is a few pips below the late May 2025 lows, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.14% | -0.63% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.43% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.24% | 0.10% | -0.39% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.46% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.18% | -0.24% | -0.18% | -0.14% | -0.63% | -0.30% | |
| AUD | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.14% | -0.48% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.46% | 0.63% | 0.48% | 0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.30% | 0.13% | -0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/JPY attracts some follow-through buying amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Easing UK political risks benefits the GBP, while the UK-Japan rate gap weighs on the JPY.
- The JPY bears shrug off intervention fears amid economic concerns due to Hormuz risks.
The GBP/JPY cross builds on the previous day's strong positive momentum and gains traction for the second successive day on Thursday. This also marks the fourth day of a move higher in the previous five and lifts spot prices to the 218.00 neighborhood, or the highest since January 2008 during the early part of the European session.
With frontrunner Andy Burnham expected to become the next Prime Minister by July 20, fading UK political uncertainty has been bolstering the British Pound's (GBP) relative outperformance. Furthermore, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) benefits the GBP, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross. The momentum seems rather unaffected by speculations that Japanese authorities will step in to prop up the domestic currency.
In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week that officials are ready to act appropriately to currency moves. Furthermore, reports suggested that Japan might shift away from the traditional approach of signaling intervention plans and instead focus directly on targeting speculators, raising the risk of surprise attacks in the FX market. However, a wide gap in borrowing costs in Japan and other major economies continues to undermine the JPY.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate to 1% or, the highest since 1995, in June, while the Bank of England (BoE) base rate is at 3.75%, leaving a differential of around 275 basis points (bps). Furthermore, investors remain worried about economic risks due to continued energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, as Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil. This further contributes to the JPY's relative underperformance against its British counterpart.
Apart from the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop, the strong move up could further be attributed to technical buying following the previous day's breakout through the 217.00 round figure. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the verge of breaking into overbought territory. This makes it prudent to wait for some consolidation or a modest pullback before placing fresh bullish bets on the GBP/JPY cross and positioning for further gains.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.49% | 0.63% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.35% | 0.42% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.55% | 0.59% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.42% | 0.33% | |
| GBP | 0.49% | 0.55% | 1.02% | 0.40% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.63% | -0.59% | -1.02% | -0.76% | -0.51% | -0.96% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | 0.13% | -0.40% | 0.76% | 0.23% | -0.20% | 0.48% | |
| AUD | -0.00% | 0.00% | -0.55% | 0.51% | -0.23% | -0.42% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 0.35% | 0.42% | -0.13% | 0.96% | 0.20% | 0.42% | 0.75% | |
| CHF | -0.42% | -0.33% | -0.88% | 0.24% | -0.48% | -0.33% | -0.75% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees AUD/USD confined to a 0.6915–0.6950 intraday range as momentum remains lacklustre. For 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is tentatively building, with rising risk of a break above 0.6980 while 0.6900 acts as strong support. Over 1–3 months, however, the broader trend remains negative, with focus on 0.6707 below 0.6835.
Australian Dollar holds in tight band
"24-HOUR VIEW: AUD fell to a low of 0.6921 two days ago. When it was at 0.6925 yesterday, we stated that “while AUD could retreat further, given the lacklustre downward momentum, any decline is likely to be contained within a 0.6900/0.6950 range.” AUD subsequently rose to 0.6946, dipped to 0.6907 before recovering to close marginally higher by 0.01% at 0.6929. There has been no clear shift in either downward or upward momentum, and AUD is likely to range-trade today, probably between 0.6915 and 0.6950."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Wednesday (01 Jul, spot at 0.6915), we indicated that AUD “is likely to trade between 0.6870 and 0.6980 for the time being.” After AUD rose to 0.6959, we highlighted on Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 0.6955) that “upward momentum is building tentatively, and the risk of AUD breaking above 0.6980 is increasing and will continue to increase as long as AUD holds above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 0.6900.” While AUD has not been able to make any headway on the upside, we continue to hold the same view for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9:
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand early Thursday despite a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for June. Investors will also keep a close eye on comments from central bank officials.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.15% | 0.06% | -0.09% | -0.54% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.08% | -0.36% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.26% | 0.14% | -0.30% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.00% | -0.07% | 0.19% | 0.09% | -0.38% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.19% | -0.12% | -0.57% | -0.26% | |
| AUD | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.12% | -0.44% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.36% | 0.30% | 0.38% | 0.57% | 0.44% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.06% | -0.00% | 0.06% | 0.26% | 0.12% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The United States (US) military said late Wednesday that it hit 90 targets along the coastline of Iran. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard targeted US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. According to Reuters, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi urged sides to commit to diplomacy. Despite this new development, crude Oil prices edge lower in the European session on Thursday and the USD Index stays in negative territory below 101.00, while US stock index futures rise between 0.2% and 0.7%.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June policy meeting highlighted that policymakers generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated while downside risks to maximum employment goal had moderated a bit. According to the document, most participants pointed to scenarios in which inflation would remain elevated due to AI-related demand, Middle East conflict or tariffs, and noted that some policy firming would likely be warranted.
After closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday, EUR/USD benefits from the renewed USD weakness and rises toward 1.1450 in the European morning on Thursday.
GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum after closing in positive territory on Wednesday and trades at its highest level in three weeks above 1.3400.
Following a three-day slide, Gold gains traction on Thursday and rises nearly 0.8% on the day above $4,100.
USD/JPY corrects lower and trades below 162.50 after rising about 0.3% on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) latest quarterly report showed on Thursday that there's no change to the overall assessment for all 9 Japanese regions. Most regional economies are seen as "recovering moderately" still.
Philip Wee from DBS Group Research reports NZD/USD is holding firm above 0.57 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unanimously voted to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, a shift from May’s split decision. The RBNZ still sees policy as accommodative, signals likely further stimulus reduction, and projects inflation easing back toward its 2% midpoint by mid-2027.
Kiwi supported by hawkish RBNZ
"NZD/USD is firm above 0.57 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand countered doubts regarding its inflation-fighting resolve."
"The vote to lift the official 25 bps hike to 2.50% was unanimous, which marked a clear departure from May’s 3-3 split to hold rates."
"With the OCR level remaining accommodative, the committee signalled that 'further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely'."
"RBNZ projected that inflation will peak at 3.9% in 2Q26, slow to 3.3% in 3Q26, before declining toward 2% or the mid-point of the official inflation target of 1-3% by mid-2027."
"Two members view inflation risks as heavily skewed to the upside, while four view them as balanced following a drop in global oil prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/CAD may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index is around 64, hinting at sustained upside momentum.
- The primary support lies at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 1.4110.
USD/CAD moves sideways after two days of losses, trading around 1.4170 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias.
The USD/CAD is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds comfortably above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Price is pressing against the short-term nine-period EMA, which acts as immediate resistance, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 64 stays in positive territory but off extreme overbought readings, hinting at sustained upside momentum with some scope for consolidation.
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182, followed by the primary barrier at the nearly 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24. Further advances would expose the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4400.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4110. A break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3998.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.24% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.54% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.10% | -0.34% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 0.17% | -0.28% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.16% | 0.08% | -0.39% | -0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.10% | -0.55% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.10% | -0.44% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.54% | 0.34% | 0.28% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 0.44% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.14% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has extended its rally as renewed US-Iran tensions threaten the fragile ceasefire and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz. ICE Brent has moved above $78/bbl, while Russia’s ban on diesel exports until end-July intensifies middle distillate supply concerns. ING highlights tighter US product inventories and expects stronger demand for US barrels.
Brent supported by supply disruptions
"ICE Brent settled 5.2% higher yesterday at a little over $78/bbl, with further upside expected today following additional US strikes against Iran in response to its earlier attacks on several vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz."
"Key for the oil outlook is whether the US and Iran are able to quickly de-escalate this latest rise in tensions."
"The market will be watching whether these crossings rebound in the coming days — or whether rising tensions keep shipowners wary of navigating this critical energy choke point."
"Adding to supply concerns in the oil market, and specifically in middle distillates, Russia announced a ban on the export of diesel until the end of July."
"Stronger distillate exports helped pull inventories lower — and with Russia’s diesel ban in place, demand for US barrels is set to rise even further."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
In a released statement from Qatar Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani after a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister (FM) Abbas Araghchi, AI Thani said that he discussed about latest military escalation in the Middle East between the United States (US) and Iran and condemned attacks on commercial ships, which were transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Additional comments
All parties should commit to diplomacy.
All parties should implement the signed MoU.
Qatar supports all efforts to contain the escalation.
Market reaction
There is a slight buying interest seen in the US Dollar, following remarks from Qatar. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds to near 100.90 after recovering some of its easrly losses.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that EUR/USD has traded in a narrow range and appears largely unaffected by Iran-related headlines, as the correlation with Oil has weakened. She highlights that markets now price Fed rate hikes despite softer labour data, reflecting a hawkish FOMC bias and reduced perceived risk of politically driven monetary easing in the United States.
Fed reaction function supports Dollar
"EUR/USD appears largely unaffected by the latest developments in the Iran conflict and continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. We had already pointed out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the oil price has diminished significantly."
"In other words, the market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes even in spite of a marked decline in oil prices."
"The fact that rate-hike expectations in the market are nevertheless holding up is mainly linked to a general reassessment of the Fed’s reaction function. And this can be traced back to the latest FOMC meeting, the first under the leadership of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh which highlighted two points:"
"A significant number of FOMC members have a bias towards rate hikes. This was confirmed once again by the minutes of the meeting published yesterday evening, which state "Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit." as well as "In such scenarios [of elevated inflation], almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 percent."."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
