Forex News
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that higher energy prices and gas market stress have not yet pushed key ASEAN economies into unsustainable external deficits. Bank Indonesia (BI) focuses on defending the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and strengthening the balance of payments, while the region as a whole still runs a modest trade surplus. Yu argues reserves should smooth volatility, with adjustment coming mainly via demand and fiscal measures.
Balance of payments risks but buffers
"Bank Indonesia’s (BI) interest rate decision was largely in line with expectations, and the central bank committed to preserving currency stability, calling it an “all-out” effort to maintain IDR stability."
"Intervention will remain targeted, but BI also stressed that balance of payments “must be strengthened” to mitigate the impact from the war, as the country’s current account forecasts were revised sharply down from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP to 1.3%. In our view, every emerging market (EM) net energy importer will need to address balance of payments risks in their central bank decisions, especially Indonesia’s peers in Southeast Asia."
"ASEAN’s struggles throughout the conflict have been well-documented, but the hard numbers are not insurmountable. The core ASEAN economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore – currently run a combined rolling six-month surplus of around $25bn, 60% of which is attributable to Singapore, whose trade patterns are sui generis."
"The net shortfall is manageable, especially relative to reserve levels. The concern is more about the pace of drawdown, which can generate significant market volatility."
"We agree that in the current environment, reserves should be used as smoothing operations, and balance of payments correction should come through demand-side adjustments. Fiscal measures to restrain activity are a useful stopgap, though this falls beyond the remit of local central banks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Bearish engulfing pattern confirms rejection at 50-day SMA resistance
- Break below Fibonacci levels reinforces short-term downtrend continuation
- Drop under $75 exposes $73.53 and $72.57 support levels
Silver price (XAG/USD) collapsed as buyers got rejected at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $78.73, as geopolitical headlines dominated price action on Thursday. The XAG/USD trades at $75.40, down 3%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal is forming a ‘bearish engulfing’ pattern on the daily chart, indicating further downside lies ahead. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as key support at $75.28, while immediate resistance lies at the $75.00 psychological level.
Silver’s hourly chart shows that the short-term downtrend continues after XAG tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement drawn from the day’s high of $78.38 to the low of $74.19. Since then, the non-yielding metal has extended its losses, surpassing the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with eyes set on $75.00 ahead of testing the daily low.
If those two levels are cleared, the next stop would be the April 13 daily low of $73.57, followed by the current week’s low of $72.61.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Hourly
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Standard Chartered economists Tommy Wu and Hunter Chan report that the Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index fell to 43.3 in Q2, reflecting weaker sentiment linked to higher Oil prices and Middle East tensions. While the global economic outlook and raw material cost sub-indices dropped sharply, investment and hiring remained above 50, suggesting SMEs still see Hong Kong and mainland China as resilient.
SME sentiment pressured by geopolitics
"The Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index (SMEI), released jointly by Standard Chartered Bank and the Hong Kong Productivity Council, fell to 43.3 in Q2 from 43.9 in Q1."
"The oil price surge and expected economic repercussions from the Middle East conflict were likely behind the sharp fall in the ‘global economic outlook’ (-15.5pts) and ‘raw materials’ cost (-10.4pts) sub-indices."
"Meanwhile, the ‘investment’ sub-index rose (1.4pts) while ‘number of staff’ was steady (-0.1pt), pointing to a stable labour market; both were above 50."
"This probably reflects SMEs’ confidence in Hong Kong’s economic recovery and mainland China’s economic resilience even in the face of high global uncertainty."
"That said, while both the ‘sales’ and ‘profit margin’ sub-indices improved (+1.1pts and +1.9pts, respectively), they remained below 50."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang highlights that South Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) jumped 1.7% QoQ in 1Q26 on strong chip exports and AI-related investment, prompting an upgrade of the 2026 GDP forecast to 2.8% YoY. However, ING expects growth to slow in 2Q26 as energy disruptions bite, while rising inflation expectations and "chipflation" increase pressure on the Bank of Korea to hike rates in 2H26.
K shaped recovery complicates policy path
"We expect strong chip momentum to continue, but also a slowdown in 2Q26 growth as energy disruptions affect activity across petrochemicals and other manufacturing sectors. The Korean government implemented a temporary export ban on Naphtha, and Korean companies increased oil and gas imports from outside the Middle East. Despite these measures, manufacturing activity still cannot be sustained at full capacity."
"With solid first-quarter GDP and limited negative impact from the oil disruptions, we have revised up the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% YoY to 2.8%. We’re concerned that prolonged supply disruptions could hinder chip production and dampen investment in AI. If that happens, the economy could be hit even harder than other major economies because it relies heavily on the chip industry."
"Due to the implementation of government measures, the monthly inflation rate is expected to remain lower than that observed in other Asian energy-importing countries. We expect that the Consumer Price Index will increase by at least 0.7% MoM in April. It’s important to note that this rise is not only due to higher energy prices, but also "chipflation.""
"On the monetary policy side, the K-shaped recovery will put the BoK in a difficult position and likely constrain its policy responses. However, if GDP grows much higher than potential, as we expect, and inflation expectations rise further from here, we expect the BoK will focus on its inflation-targeting mandate. Thus, we continue to expect the BoK to deliver policy hikes in 2H26."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY fails near 216.00, as repeated rejection pushes the cross lower.
- RSI drifts toward 50, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
- Break below 215 exposes 214.00 and 213.35 support levels.
GBP/JPY advance stalled around 215.70 on Thursday, retreating to 215.00 as risk appetite deteriorated amid Middle East headlines, leaving traders uncertain about the conflict's outcome. The cross trades at 215.06 at the time of writing.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The GBP/JPY pair is consolidating for the second straight day, suggesting that further gains are off the table, with the psychological 216.00 level not yet tested. Worth noting that every upside move towards the latter was rejected, with the 214.00 figure capping downward moves.
Momentum is bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though moving gradually towards its 50 neutral level.
If GBP/JPY closes daily below 215.00, the potential to test the April 17 swing low of 214.00 increases. On further weakness, the next support would be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.35, followed by the 50-day SMA at 211.98.
On the other hand, if GBP/JPY registers a new yearly high above 215.91, the chance of clearing 216.00 increases.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.50% | 0.17% | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.64% | |
| EUR | -0.50% | -0.32% | 0.07% | -0.39% | -0.52% | -0.39% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | 0.32% | 0.41% | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.06% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.59% | -0.07% | -0.41% | -0.51% | -0.58% | -0.45% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.51% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.58% | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.45% | -0.05% | -0.20% | 0.50% | |
| CHF | -0.64% | -0.14% | -0.47% | -0.07% | -0.53% | -0.70% | -0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting highlight that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has started a new tightening cycle, lifting the Target Reverse Repurchase (RRP) rate to 4.50% and signalling further hikes. They now expect the policy rate to reach 5.00% by end-2026 as inflation projections rise above target and fiscal policy turns more supportive.
BSP starts renewed tightening cycle
"Forward guidance from both the latest monetary policy statement and the post-meeting press conference points to the onset of a tightening cycle, with further rate hikes likely over the remainder of the year. The BSP stated that the rate hike today (23 Apr) is intended to anchor inflation expectations and contain the build-up of second-round effects, while stressing that a measured pace of tightening would remain supportive of the medium-term economic recovery. It further affirmed that it stands ready to take all necessary monetary actions to ensure inflation returns to the 3.0% target, consistent with its primary mandate of maintaining price stability."
"While the BSP has emphasised a measured and data-dependent approach amid ongoing Middle East-related uncertainties, the policy bias has clearly shifted hawkish. The MB also underscored that any further tightening will be gradual so as not to derail the economic recovery. Against this backdrop, we now expect two additional 25bps rate hikes, one in Jun and another in 3Q26, which would lift the RRP rate to 5.00%, where it is expected to remain through end-2026."
"In other words, the latest policy decision underscores a renewed BSP focus on inflation risks over near-term growth concerns. The central bank now projects headline inflation to exceed the 4% upper bound of its target range in both 2026 (at 6.3%, vs 5.1% projected in Mar and UOB est: 5.5%) and 2027 (at 4.3% vs 3.8% previously and UOB est: 3.5%). Core inflation is also expected to rise towards the 4% tolerance ceiling, heightening the risk of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored amid more persistent price pressures from the prolonged Middle East crisis and continued fiscal support aimed at sustaining growth momentum."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Friday, April 24:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose on Thursday and remains on a winning streak near the 98.70 area, supported by stronger-than-expected US data and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, as conflicting headlines keep markets cautious.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214K from 212K, still consistent with a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, preliminary S&P Global PMIs for April surprised to the upside, with Manufacturing at 54 and Services at 51.3, reinforcing the view that the US economy remains on a solid footing. This combination lifted US yields and further underpinned the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.67% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.57% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.50% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.60% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | -0.08% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 0.52% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.22% | -0.13% | 0.42% | -0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.67% | -0.57% | -0.50% | -0.60% | -0.52% | -0.42% | -0.58% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.08% | -0.07% | 0.05% | 0.18% | 0.58% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
A notable geopolitical update crossed the wires, with a report from Israel N12 News indicating that Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had resigned from the negotiations with the US. The news report moved the markets, but different Iranian journalists denied it, adding to the ongoing noise around Middle East negotiations.
EUR/USD trades under pressure near the 1.1690 zone, weighed down by the stronger USD amid markets favoring solid US data.
GBP/USD drifts lower toward the 1.3480 region, struggling to regain traction amid broad US Dollar strength. In the UK, the S&P Global Composite PMI increased from 50.3 to 52, indicating growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors, which are now above the expansion/contraction threshold.
USD/JPY pushes higher toward 159.50, supported by rising US yields, though upside remains cautious amid lingering intervention risks.
AUD/USD softens toward the 0.7140 area, pressured by the stronger USD and higher yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) relatively firm stance offers some support, but global sentiment and US data remain on top.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil surges near $96.00 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which continue to support prices.
Gold (XAU/USD) retreats near the $4,710 mark, pressured by rising yields and a stronger US Dollar, despite lingering safe-haven demand.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, April 24:
- United Kingdom Retail Sales March
- Germany IFO Survey April
- Canada Retail Sales February
- United States Michigan Data April
- United States Inflation Expectations April
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlights that currency markets are consolidating as the April 28 War Powers Resolution deadline approaches, with USD/CNY flattening after an earlier relief rally. He notes that geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are complicating central bank decisions, with most policymakers expected to keep rates steady while monitoring stagflation risks.
FX volatility stalls into key deadline
"As the currency markets approach the April 28 deadline, volatility has shifted into a tense wait-and-see consolidation, as reflected by the recent flattening of USD/CNY."
"Markets are increasingly hesitant to commit to directional bets after the relief rally that rode the Trump off-ramp hope in the first half of this month."
"The geopolitical tensions complicate the landscape for global central banks, most of which are scheduled to meet next week."
"The consensus expects central banks to maintain steady rates as policymakers grapple with the shadow of stagflation cast by the US-Iranian stand-off."
"Asia’s most oil-dependent currencies – the INR, KRW, and PHP – should continue to fluctuate with oil prices, with authorities standing by to discourage one-way bets on depreciation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Rising US Treasury yields pressures Gold and drags prices to eight-day lows.
- Strong US flash PMIs offset weaker jobless claims and supported yields.
- Middle East headlines and higher Oil prices keep inflation fears elevated.
Gold (XAU/USD) price eases on Thursday as tensions between the US and Iran remain high, while Israel and Lebanon prepare for talks, with both ambassadors in the US set to meet at the White House with President Donald Trump in attendance. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,716, down 0.48%, after reaching a daily low of $4,664.
Bullion slides as strong PMIs and rising rates blunt haven appeal
The flow of headlines from the Middle East continues as the Israeli press reported that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf resigned from the negotiating team, citing growing interference from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). News from Al Arabiya reported that Israel is on alert in anticipation of a possible resumption of the war by the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut as the US and Iran continue to seize ships. Recently, WTI Crude Oil prices rose on the headline of Ghalibaf’s resignation, while bullion is extending its losses near $4,700.
In the meantime, economic data in the US revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 214K, exceeding forecasts for a 212K rise.
At the same time, business activity in the US expanded as S&P Global revealed Flash PMIs for April. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.3 to 54, while the Services PMI increased from 49.8 to 51.3, both exceeding forecasts.
The US 10-year Treasury yield surges nearly 4.5 basis points to 4.349%, a headwind for the yellow metal, which sinks to an eight-day low.
High energy prices are keeping investors pricing in rate hikes by global central banks. At the beginning of 2026, the swaps market expected at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. So far, they foresee the US central bank holding rates unchanged while eyeing the first rate cut at the July 2027 meeting, as depicted by the Implied Forward Rates curve from Prime Terminal.
Fed implied forward rates
What’s in the US schedule for Friday?
In the US, traders will eye the final revision of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Bears capitalize on headline, further losses seen at $4,650
Gold is posting losses, close to clearing the $4,700 figure and key dynamic support levels, including the 100- and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at $4,723 and $4,706, respectively.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen further into bearish territory, indicating that sellers are gaining steam.
With that said, if XAU/USD clears $4,650, further losses are eyed, with the next area of interest at $4,600. A breach of the latter will expose the December 26 daily high, which has turned into support at $4,549.
For a bullish continuation, Gold must climb above the 100-day SMA and the $4,800 milestone. Above this area, the next key resistance would be the 50-day SMA at $4,876, ahead of $4,900.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Headlines indicating that Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, according to Israel N12 News, spurred risk aversion and sent Crude Oil prices sharply up in the American session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) also strengthened with the headline, hinting at diluting odds for a deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Nevertheless, different Iranian journalists have rushed to deny the headlines. Mohammad Ghaderi posted on X:
The ridiculous news from #Israel's Channel 12 that @mb_ghalibaf has resigned from the #Iran's negotiating team, which was also republished by Al Arabiya, is completely false."
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated through Truth Social: "I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!." Earlier in the day, Trump claimed that "Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is!" hinting at some governmental divergences in the Persian Gulf country.
The latest headlines triggered Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to answer, who stated that "In Iran, there are no hardliners or moderates. We are all Iranians and revolutionaries. With ironclad unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret. One God, one nation, one leader, one path; victory for Iran, dearer than life."
Market reaction
Uncertainty maintains the US Dollar bid across the FX board, while West Texas Intermediate holds on to intraday gains and trades at around $94.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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