Forex News
- EUR/JPY softens to near 177.90 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The bearish outlook remains intact below the 100-day SMA; further consolidation cannot be ruled out with neutral RSI.
- The initial support level is seen at 176.90; the first upside barrier emerges at 178.45.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 177.90 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) after minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) September meeting reinforced expectations for further interest rate hikes.
According to the minutes of the September meeting released on Thursday, most of the BoJ policymakers agreed that further interest rate increases would be appropriate as underlying inflation approached the central bank's 2% target.
One board member indicated that there may be room to accelerate interest rate increases as the central bank assessed the effects of Middle East developments, growing demand linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Foreign Exchange (FX) movements.
On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) might help limit the EUR’s losses. ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank will probably increase borrowing costs next month due to the worsening outlook for inflation. Economists expect a final move in rates next month, though markets see tightening continuing beyond that, into 2027.
Eurozone stagflation risks build as ECB faces stronger inflation and weaker growth
Analysts at Standard Chartered highlight that the latest Eurostat release showed euro area headline inflation “rising to 4.0% y/y in October, above our expectation of 3.8%,” which “signals upside risks to the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) September projection of 3.6% average inflation in Q4.” On the activity side, they note that, “stripping Ireland out, euro area GDP growth was a more modest 0.2%, and, crucially, growth momentum has been falling steadily since Q4-2025.”
Standard Chartered argues that this “combination of weakening growth momentum (using euro area ex Ireland data) and still-rising inflation creates a growing policy dilemma for the ECB,” with “inflation dynamics (and the risk of second-round effects)” likely to dominate for now and “underpinning our expectation of another 25bps hike at the December meeting.” While they stress that “stagflation is not our base case; we expect growth to remain positive and inflation to begin falling early next year,” the bank cautions that “the direction of travel is that way, and the forces that could produce stagflation in coming quarters are apparent: higher energy prices that are squeezing real income and weighing on corporate profit margins; ECB monetary tightening operating with lagged effects on household and corporate borrowing costs; and tighter financial conditions weighing on broader activity.”
Nagel flags likely December hike as inflation risks intensify
ECB’s Nagel delivered a more hawkish message than usual, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.2 versus a historic 7.0, as a December rate hike is described as “very likely to be necessary.” The emphasis on inflationary pressures being higher than expected and close to an adverse scenario underlines a clear tightening bias and reinforces support for the Euro on rate expectations.
Nagel’s insistence that an energy price spike must not trigger broad-based inflation signals readiness to act again, even as fiscal issues in France are framed as outside the remit of monetary policy. The combination of strong inflation warnings and confidence that budget issues will be managed keeps the focus on price stability and supports a hawkish interpretation for Euro traders.
Technical Analysis: EUR/JPY keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY remains in a corrective phase, holding below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the broader bias bearish despite the recent rebound from the lower Bollinger Band. Price has reclaimed the 20-day Bollinger SMA support, suggesting some near-term stabilization, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.4 has shifted into neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that downside momentum has faded but not yet reversed the broader cap imposed by the higher averages.
On the downside, immediate support level is provided by the mid-band at 176.90, followed by the November 2 low of 175.70. A breach of this level could expose the lower limit of Bollinger Band around 175.30.
On the topside, initial resistance level is aligned with the upper Bollinger Band near 178.45, where sellers may re-emerge. A clear break above this level would pave the way to the 180.00 psychological level, en route to the more significant 100-day SMA resistance at 181.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,562.22 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,349.87 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 146,522.90 per tola from INR 144,051.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,562.22 |
10 Grams | 125,619.60 |
Tola | 146,522.90 |
Troy Ounce | 390,716.60 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EUR/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day amid a broadly weaker USD.
- Hot Eurozone CPI reaffirmed ECB hike bets, lending additional support to the Euro and the pair.
- A breakout through a one-month-old trading range is needed to back the case for further gains.
The EUR/USD pair gains positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday, trading around the 1.1265 region during the Asian session, close to a near one-week high touched the previous day.
The US Dollar (USD) drops to a fresh low since late September as a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections raised worries about fiscal gridlock, which could limit government spending and lead to slower economic growth. Furthermore, hopes for an end to the Iran war weigh on crude oil prices, easing inflation fears and triggering a further decline in US bond yields. This overshadows US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations and continues to weigh on the buck, which, in turn, is seen supporting the EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, data released on Wednesday showed that Eurozone annual headline inflation rose to 4.0% in October, marking a three-year high. This further lifted bets for a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December, underpinning the shared currency and contributing to the EUR/USD pair's bullish undertone. However, concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock might hold back Euro bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap further gains for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, with bulls still awaiting a breakout through the 1.1270 hurdle, representing the top boundary of a one-month-old range. Meanwhile, momentum indicators hold a constructive near-term bias, with the Relative Strength Index hovering in bullish territory just below overbought and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line staying in positive ground. This suggests that buyers still retain control.
That said, failure near the aforementioned barrier would signal fading bullish momentum and drag the EUR/USD pair to sub-1.1200 levels. Acceptance below the said handle might expose the lower end of the trading range, around the 1.1120-1.1110 zone, which, if broken decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the well-established downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.16% | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.44% | -0.38% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.25% | 0.23% | -0.14% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.14% | -0.19% | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.27% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.30% | -0.09% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.25% | -0.10% | -0.27% | 0.03% | -0.35% | -0.30% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.10% | -0.30% | -0.03% | -0.36% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.30% | 0.32% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Democratic election victories sparked Iran peace hopes, causing oil prices to drop and boosting Silver's appeal.
- Strong private hiring supported expectations of a rate hike, though lower energy prices could temper near-term inflation.
- Investors now await the Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls report to gauge the Fed's next move.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $53.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver prices climbed as Democratic victories in the US midterm elections raised hopes for an end to the US-Iran conflict, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices.
The dollar-denominated and non-yielding white metal also drew support from a weaker US Dollar (USD) and falling Treasury yields, which boosted its appeal to investors. President Donald Trump acknowledged that Republicans lost due to the war and cited high gasoline prices as a key factor in the defeat, while signaling no immediate plans to escalate attacks on Iran.
Lower oil prices could help temper inflationary pressures, easing concerns about potential near-term interest rate increases. However, resilient domestic economic data continued to reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The ADP employment report showed private-sector hiring rose by 86,000 in October—beating expectations of 69,000—even as September’s figure was revised downward to 86,000 from 90,000. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI dipped slightly to 54.5 from 54.9, marginally missing the 54.8 forecast but remaining solidly in expansion territory.
These strong US economic indicators keep Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy expectations hawkish, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing in nearly an 82% chance of another rate hike in December. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic reports, including weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
DXY still seen trading above fair value despite post-election Dollar pullback
Analysts at Scotiabank reiterate that, even after the post-election pullback in the US Dollar, the broader DXY index remains rich versus their valuation framework. They “continue to highlight the DXY’s premium to our FV estimate based on 2Y spreads, which is closer to 100 (vs. spot in the mid-101s),” underscoring their view that the Dollar still trades above fair value despite the recent bout of weakness across G10 FX.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold extends the rally further beyond $4,100 as the US elections-driven USD selling remains unabated.
- Falling oil prices ease inflation fears and weigh on US bond yields, further supporting the commodity.
- Hawkish central bank expectations could cap the bullion as traders keenly await the US NFP report.
Gold (XAU/USD) gains strong follow-through positive traction following the previous day's rally of over 3.5% – its biggest daily gain since mid-August – and surges past the $4,100 mark, hitting a two-week top during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) hangs near a one-month low, touched in the aftermath of US election results, and is seen as a key factor supporting the commodity.
Democrats' overwhelming victory in the US midterm elections cleared a major source of uncertainty and lowered expectations that US President Donald Trump will resume military strikes against Iran. In fact, Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer vowed on Wednesday to push for an end to the Iran war and said that his party could use control over government funding to press for that goal. The optimism drags crude oil prices to a two-month low, easing inflation fears. Moreover, expectations that a fiscal gridlock in Washington could limit government spending further put downward pressure on US bond yields, which keeps USD depressed and acts as a tailwind for the commodity.
Dollar reaction muted despite scale of Democratic win
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU observe that the “scale of the win for the Democrats – which has surpassed any predictions reported prior – has not been matched by the scale of moves in the financial markets,” with the Dollar and US Treasury yields only modestly softer so far. They argue that a shift in the political backdrop could still prove pivotal for the currency: “That would certainly reverse the move lower we are seeing now in the dollar and Treasury yields,” if subsequent developments were to reprice policy or geopolitical risks. Conversely, MUFG/BTMU suggest that “if Trump does not attack Iran and he sees this repudiation of his policies from voters as reason to seek a deal, an extension of dollar weakness is much more likely,” underscoring how the post-election policy response may determine whether the current Dollar pullback deepens or reverses.
Despite the political shift, expectations for further tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remain largely intact. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December. The bets were reaffirmed by the better-than-expected US ADP report, which showed that private-sector employment increased by 86,000 in October 2026, matching the previous month's downwardly revised reading. Separately, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services PMI dipped to 54.5 last month, from 54.9 in September, but remained above the 50 threshold that indicates continuous expansion.
Moreover, bets for interest rate hikes by other major central banks might contribute to capping gains for the non-yielding Gold. In fact, the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its policy meeting later today. Meanwhile, minutes from the September Bank of Japan (BoJ) revealed that policymakers debated the need for continued and potentially faster-paced rate hikes. Adding to this, markets are pricing in a greater chance of a December rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the precious metal.
Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's future policy path and drive USD demand in the near term. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could infuse some volatility and provide some impetus to the Gold price.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
In the four-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair keeps a constructive bias following Thursday's breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October downswing and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75.77 is in overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is advancing above its signal with a positive, expanding histogram, hinting that bullish pressure persists even as the rally looks mature.
Hence, the immediate focus remains on whether bulls can clear the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,186 without triggering a corrective pullback from overbought conditions. The next hurdle aligns with the 50.0% level at $4,283 and then $4,380, while the broader Fibonacci band up to $4,518 and $4,695 caps the medium-term recovery path. On the downside, the 200-period SMA around $4,124, followed by the 23.6% level at $4,065, could protect the immediate downside. A break below the latter would expose the structural floor closer to the recent cycle low near $3,871.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.93% | -1.23% | 0.08% | -0.31% | 0.53% | -0.58% | -1.68% | |
| EUR | 0.93% | -0.29% | 0.98% | 0.61% | 1.45% | 0.40% | -0.75% | |
| GBP | 1.23% | 0.29% | 1.32% | 0.91% | 1.75% | 0.67% | -0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.98% | -1.32% | -0.39% | 0.45% | -0.64% | -1.76% | |
| CAD | 0.31% | -0.61% | -0.91% | 0.39% | 0.86% | -0.24% | -1.36% | |
| AUD | -0.53% | -1.45% | -1.75% | -0.45% | -0.86% | -1.04% | -2.19% | |
| NZD | 0.58% | -0.40% | -0.67% | 0.64% | 0.24% | 1.04% | -1.09% | |
| CHF | 1.68% | 0.75% | 0.47% | 1.76% | 1.36% | 2.19% | 1.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- NZD/USD rose as the US Dollar fell following a Democratic midterm win and falling oil prices.
- Resilient US jobs and ISM data keep Federal Reserve December rate hike odds near 82%.
- Diminished RBNZ rate hike odds and upcoming New Zealand elections limit further NZD gains.
NZD/USD appreciates for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5650 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) faced heavy selling pressure following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which handed Democrats control of both houses of Congress and raised concerns over potential political gridlock in Washington. Additionally, market expectations of a swift end to the Middle East conflict triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, putting further downward pressure on the Greenback.
However, the US Dollar's losses could be capped as resilient domestic economic data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The ADP employment report showed private-sector hiring increased by 86,000 in October, beating expectations of 69,000, despite September’s figure being revised down to 86,000 from 90,000. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI slipped slightly to 54.5 from 54.9, just below the 54.8 forecast, but remained firmly in expansion territory.
These solid economic metrics keep expectations hawkish, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating that markets are pricing in nearly an 82% chance of another rate hike in December. Investors are now awaiting key upcoming economic indicators, including weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
However, upside potential for the NZD/USD pair remains limited as the New Zealand Dollar faces domestic headwinds. Recent labor market data prompted investors to pare back bets on a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike in December, with market-implied odds falling below 50%, down from roughly 75% earlier in the week. Market focus is now shifting toward New Zealand's general election on Saturday, where opinion polls signal a tight contest between the governing centre-right National-led coalition and opposition parties led by Labour.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5650. The pair retains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader downtrend intact. However, price is trading just above the nine-day EMA, hinting at a modest attempt to stabilize after recent losses. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward a neutral 47.8 area, suggesting selling pressure is no longer extreme, but upside traction remains limited for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 50-day EMA at 0.5693, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to alleviate the prevailing downside pressure. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the nine-day EMA at 0.5638; a break below this level would expose the pair to renewed selling, reinforcing the broader bearish structure while momentum stays only mildly negative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- GBP/USD strengthens to around 1.3485 in Thursday’s Asian session.
- Democrats take control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in US midterm elections.
- BoE is set to raise the Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75%, the first increase since August 2023.
The GBP/USD pair gains ground to near 1.3485 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the British Pound (GBP) following an overwhelming victory by Democrats in the US midterm elections. All eyes will be on the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision later on Thursday.
Democrats swept to sizable majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives at midterm elections on Tuesday. This development ease concerns about contested results and drags the Greenback lower.
The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years on Thursday. That would bring the Bank rate to 4.0% from 3.75%. Traders will closely monitor BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for more clues on the UK interest rate outlook.
Financial markets currently price in at least a three-quarter-point rate hike for next year, on top of one this month, which would take UK interest rates above those projected for the US.
"I think they will have pushed through with a hike," said Hetal Mehta, chief economist at wealth managers St James's Place. “A pickup in energy prices a couple of months ago and more recent signs of resilient economic growth are likely to have tipped the balance on the MPC,” Hetal added.
Pound extends gains as GBP/USD clears 200dma, aiding BoE inflation fight
Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that for GBP/USD, “the acceleration to a 7-week high above the 200dma (+2.7% since mid-October) demonstrates how the accumulation of short positions before the Budget last month are now being unwound.” They add that “further gains could lie ahead if history is any guide, helping the BoE in its battle to contain inflation.” The bank notes that Cable traded a “GBP/USD: 1.3408 - 1.3484 overnight range,” with “Cable in the clear above 200dma, up to 7-week high on US election and short covering,” and now sees “support 1.3390, resistance 1.3535.” In options, Societe Generale flags strikes at “1.3365 (£630m), 1.3450 (£570m),” while in EUR/GBP options it points to “0.8330 (€1.5bn), 0.8365-75 (€3.8bn).”
On the rates side, the bank reports that in the UK, “10y IRS -3bp to 4.797%, inside yesterday’s range,” with “support 4.71%, resistance 4.93%.” It reiterates that “sustained appreciation in cable (+2.7% from mid-October low) will help to contain inflation,” and notes that the “Green 2037 gilt auction yesterday [was] well received: b/c 3.38x, small tail of 0.3bp.”
Logan flags at least two more hikes, keeping Dollar bulls on the front foot
Fed’s Logan delivered a distinctly hawkish message, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score modestly above the 7.7/10 historical average, underscoring a firmer stance than the established baseline. The insistence that the Fed “needs at least two more quarter-point rate hikes” and that skipping a meeting does not alter the policy destination, alongside the view that it is “unacceptable” inflation is not on track to 2%, signals a clear commitment to pushing policy into modestly restrictive territory despite strong growth and only gradually tightening financial conditions. Emphasis on gradualism and clarity around the end-point suggests a preference for a higher-for-longer path that should underpin the Dollar, especially if markets had been leaning toward an earlier pause.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.95 points to 143.62, reinforcing that the broader policy backdrop remains firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. In combination with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score, this move signals that Fed communication continues to lean toward additional tightening, a configuration typically supportive for the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains a bullish outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades with a bullish near-term bias, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is pressing the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 65.3 shows firm positive momentum edging toward overbought territory, suggesting upside pressure persists but may soon face fatigue.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band near 1.3505, where a clear break would open the door to further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.3390, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 1.3345, while the lower band around 1.3185 marks a more distant bearish target if the current advance unwinds more deeply.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/JPY drifts lower for the second straight day as hawkish BoJ Minutes underpin the JPY.
- Easing inflationary concerns and sliding US bond yields weigh on the USD and spot prices.
- Fed hike bets could limit USD losses and support the pair ahead of the US NFP on Friday.
The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 157.40 area, or the weekly low, attracting some sellers for the second straight day on Thursday. Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the 158.00 mark before positioning for further losses amid a combination of negative factors.
Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) September meeting showed earlier today that policymakers concurred it was suitable for the bank to keep increasing the policy interest rate and modify the level of monetary easing. This reaffirms market bets for an interest rate hike in December and provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
The US midterm elections saw Democrats securing control of both chambers of Congress, raising worries about fiscal gridlock and limiting government spending. Moreover, Democratic leaders vowed to push for an end to the Iran war, prompting traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium. This led to the overnight slump in crude oil prices, which eased inflation fears. This led to a further slide in US bond yields and kept the USD depressed.
However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could lend some support to the buck and the USD/JPY pair. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in over an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. The bets were reinforced by the better-than-expected release of the US ADP report on Wednesday, which showed that private-sector employment increased by 86,000 in October 2026.
Hence, the focus remains glued to the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday, which will play a key role in driving USD demand. Heading into the key data risk, any attempted recovery in the USD/JPY pair is more likely to be sold into amid speculation that Japanese authorities will step in to support the domestic currency. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a breakout of a short-term range before placing fresh directional bets.
USD/JPY daily chart
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias following the recent repeated failures to build on gains beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.65. This suggests that upside momentum remains capped for now, keeping rallies vulnerable while price action consolidates below that barrier.
A daily close above this would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery. On the downside, the overnight swing low, around the $157.40 area, could act as an immediate support ahead of the 157.00 mark and the lower boundary of the trading range, near the 156.65 region. A break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears and set the stage for some meaningful depreciating move.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.88% | -1.19% | 0.16% | -0.29% | 0.50% | -0.27% | -1.63% | |
| EUR | 0.88% | -0.30% | 1.03% | 0.59% | 1.38% | 0.64% | -0.74% | |
| GBP | 1.19% | 0.30% | 1.39% | 0.90% | 1.68% | 0.95% | -0.45% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -1.03% | -1.39% | -0.46% | 0.31% | -0.43% | -1.80% | |
| CAD | 0.29% | -0.59% | -0.90% | 0.46% | 0.80% | 0.04% | -1.33% | |
| AUD | -0.50% | -1.38% | -1.68% | -0.31% | -0.80% | -0.70% | -2.11% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | -0.64% | -0.95% | 0.43% | -0.04% | 0.70% | -1.35% | |
| CHF | 1.63% | 0.74% | 0.45% | 1.80% | 1.33% | 2.11% | 1.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The US Dollar weakened due to political gridlock fears following a Democratic sweep in midterm elections.
- Recent US economic data supports the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, capping the Greenback's downside.
- The Canadian Dollar faces challenges from falling crude oil prices, limiting the USD/CAD pair's downside.
USD/CAD loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.3950 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar USD) faced heavy selling pressure after a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections resulted in control of both houses of Congress, raising concerns over potential political gridlock in Washington. Additionally, market expectations of an end to the Middle East conflict following the election outcome triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, adding further pressure on the Greenback.
However, the US Dollar's decline may remain limited as the resilient domestic economic data reinforced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike odds. Private-sector employment grew by 86,000 in October, according to the ADP report, beating the expected 69,000, though September’s figure was revised downward to 86,000 from 90,000. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI slipped slightly to 54.5 from 54.9, just below the forecasted 54.8, but remained safely within expansionary territory.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in nearly 82% probability of another rate hike in December. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US economic releases, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could remain restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces pressure from declining crude oil prices. Because Canada is one of the largest oil exporters to the United States, lower energy prices directly weigh on the Canadian currency.
Crude oil falls toward near one-month lows following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which fueled market expectations that the incoming Congress will push to de-escalate the military conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump acknowledged that Republicans suffered election losses largely due to voter frustration over rising gasoline prices tied to the conflict, while signaling no immediate plans to expand military strikes.
A Democratic-controlled Congress is expected to challenge military funding for ongoing Middle East operations, with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer explicitly pledging to press for an end to the war. At the same time, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have started to recover, creating a market environment where current supply exceeds near-term demand.
Loonie lags peers as lower-beta profile tempers gains
Strategists at Scotiabank observe that, despite recent gains, the Canadian Dollar is failing to keep pace with other major currencies. They note that the Loonie’s “relative performance is somewhat more underwhelming when compared to its peers, and highlights its role as a lower-beta risk and commodity currency,” reinforcing its tendency to move more cautiously than higher-beta FX counterparts even in supportive market conditions.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- EUR/USD gains ground to the highest in almost a month, around 1.1245, in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in US midterm elections.
- Eurozone inflation hits 4% for the first time in three years.
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.1245 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Euro (EUR) as the Democrats take control of the US Congress in midterm elections. Germany’s Factory Orders data for September is due later on Thursday.
The Democrats win a majority in both the US Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, taking control from Republicans. This achieved major victories in several Republican strongholds for the first time in decades, as tens of millions of voters delivered a sharp rebuke to President Donald Trump.
"Given the Democrats are favoured right now, our expectation is that they will take control of both the House and the Senate," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. If that pans out, the US dollar could sell off further from here, because a Democratic sweep would limit government spending over Trump's term,” Carol added.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation in the Eurozone jumped to 4.0% in October, its highest level in three years, a flash estimate showed on Wednesday. This figure followed a rise of 3.8% in September and came in line with the market expectations. This report marked the first time inflation in the Eurozone has hit or exceeded the 4% threshold since September 2023's reading of 4.3%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rate at 2.5% last month, following a hike of 25 basis points (bps) in September. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 72.0% odds of a hike at the ECB’s final meeting of the year in December, up from 71.8% chance before inflation print, according to CNBC.
Eurozone data firm but ECB officials flag risk of December tightening
Analysts at Scotiabank note that the latest Eurozone data were mixed but broadly resilient, with “Eurozone October CPI … confirmed at 4.0% Y/Y (2.5% for core)” even as “final Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs were marked down slightly to 51.4 and 51.7 respectively on downward revisions to French data.” On the policy front, Scotiabank highlights a notably hawkish tone from ECB officials: “ECB Governor Nagel said Tuesday the inflation picture has worsened and that policy would probably have to be tightened in December.” They add that his colleague “Sleijpen said the Iran shock was more persistent than had been thought – although there were no second-round inflation effects visible at this point – while Governor Kocher said a December rate hike was likely unless circumstances change.”
Nagel flags likely December hike as inflation risks intensify
ECB’s Nagel delivers a more hawkish message than usual, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.2 versus a historic 7.0, as a December rate hike is described as “very likely” amid inflation pressures that are already nearing an adverse scenario. The insistence that the ECB “can and must” prevent an energy shock from morphing into broad-based inflation underscores a strong tightening bias that should underpin the Euro on rate expectations.
Nagel’s confidence that France will resolve budget issues, coupled with the remark that this is “not a task for monetary policy,” signals a clear division between fiscal and monetary responsibilities, reinforcing the case for the ECB to stay focused on price stability. For FX markets, the combination of higher-than-expected inflation and explicit openness to further tightening tilts risks toward a firmer Euro, especially if incoming data validate the adverse-scenario narrative into December.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains capped under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/USD remains capped in the broader context as it stays below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the medium-term tone bearish despite the recent rebound. Price is edging just under the upper Bollinger Band, while holding above the Bollinger 20-day SMA, suggesting a short-term recovery within a still-dominant downside structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.9 has normalized from prior oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure has eased but not yet turned into a convincing bullish trend.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1262, with a more meaningful barrier at the 100-day SMA at 1.1420, which should limit gains unless decisively reclaimed. On the downside, initial support is provided by the Bollinger 20-day SMA near 1.1195, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1130, where the recent recovery cycle would likely be challenged if bears regain control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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