Forex News
OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong observe that the Indian Rupee (INR) faced depreciation pressure as Oil and geopolitics resurfaced, pushing USD/INR towards a one‑month high. He notes that some pressure has eased with Oil off its highs and RBI-linked Dollar sales helping limit losses. Near term, USD/INR should stay relatively contained, though a clean recovery likely needs lower Oil prices.
USD/INR pressure easing with flows and RBI support
"INR came under depreciation pressure as oil/geopolitics moved back into focus. Higher crude prices can pose downside pressure for INR, and USD/INR’s move towards one-month high yesterday suggests that market is again testing INR’s oil sensitivity."
"That said, some of the pressure has eased with oil prices back off highs and the INR is not without support. RBI-linked USD sales appear to have helped limit recent losses, while the flow backdrop has improved at the margin following RBI’s June measures to attract FX inflows via FCNR(B) deposits, external borrowings and wider foreign access to long-end government bonds. "
"Month-to-date foreign net equity and debt inflows also look to have improved marginally. Near term, INR should stay relatively contained, but the bar for a clean recovery is still high unless oil prices resume its move lower."
"USD/INR was last seen at 95.40 levels. Momentum is mild bullish while RSI shows tentative signs of moderation from the recent rise."
"Resistance at 95.55 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to June low), 95.90 (61.8% fibo). Support at 95.20 (50 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 94.80/90 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Macro Research expects the Canadian labour market to soften in June, with employment unchanged versus market expectations for a 10k gain after May’s 87.8k surge. They see the unemployment rate steady at 6.6% and wage growth for permanent workers rising modestly to 3.6% year-on-year, only partly reversing May’s sharp deceleration.
Jobs surge seen mean-reverting
"We look for the Canadian labour market to return to a softer footing in June with employment forecast to remain unchanged (market: +10k) after the creation of 87.8k jobs last month as the unemployment rate holds at 6.6% with a stable participation rate."
"Monthly business surveys have been mixed over June, with a pullback in small business hiring intentions contrasting with the more upbeat performance in the S&P PMIs."
"However, mean reversion will provide the more powerful driver for the softer print with last month's performance standing in stark contrast to the 6m trend of mild job losses."
"Wage growth should see a modest increase to 3.6% y/y for permanent workers, although this would unwind only a small portion of the deceleration in May."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady in June.
- The BoC is expected to keep its policy unchanged at its July 15 event.
- The Canadian Dollar has moved into a consolidative phase vs the US Dollar.
Markets are anticipating a fairly stable report when Statistics Canada releases its Labour Force Survey on Friday. While the Net Change in Employment is predicted to rise by 10K in June, adding to the 87.8K gain in May, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay at 6.6%.
Despite the report's tone, the Bank of Canada (BoC) should keep the bar pretty high for changing its policy direction. Indeed, the central bank is expected to keep its policy unchanged at its July 15 meeting, following five consecutive ‘on hold’ decisions since it last lowered rates in October 2025.
The June meeting reinforced the view that the BoC is firmly in wait-and-see mode. That said, policymakers seem willing to look through temporary shocks as long as underlying price pressures remain contained, even as they continue to monitor inflation risks, especially from higher energy prices. With the economy still showing signs of slack, the bank sees little need to change course for now. Moreover, future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, with the bar for another rate hike still appearing relatively high.
So far, market participants expect nearly 15 basis points of tightening from the BoC by year-end, down from around 35 basis points a month ago.
What can we expect from the next Canadian jobs report?
Consensus among analysts sees Canada’s Unemployment Rate at 6.6% last month. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add around 10K jobs in June. It is worth recalling that Average Hourly Wages rose at an annualised 3.2% in May, suggesting some cooling in wage inflation.
When is the Canadian unemployment rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
In Canada, traders will closely watch Friday’s jobs report, due at 12:30 GMT. A stronger print could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a quick lift, but don’t expect fireworks.
USD/CAD has been trading in a consolidative mood since late June, always close to its yearly peaks near 1.4250.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, points out that further gains in USD/CAD now appear limited by the 1.4250 zone, forcing spot to recede a tad and revisit the mid-1.4100s once again.
“In case the selling pressure gathers traction, the pair’s next relevant support is expected at the provisional 55-day SMA near 1.3900, while the loss of this region exposes a move toward the critical 200-day SMA near 1.3850, all preceding the interim 100-day SMA near 1.3820. A deeper and sustained retracement from here should see the next contention at the May floor at 1.3549 (May 1)," Piovano adds.
On the upside, Piovano sees the next hurdle at the YTD peak of 1.4248 (June 24 and 25). The break above the latter could prompt the pair to attempt a move toward the April 2025 ceiling at 1.4414 (April 1).
“Momentum favours extra gains,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 63 and the Average Directional Index (ADX), just over 52, suggests the underlying trend remains pretty solid.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by Statistics Canada, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force as a percentage. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market and a weakening of the Canadian economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Jul 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 6.6%
Previous: 6.6%
Source: Statistics Canada
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- EUR/USD eases to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475 and remains practically flat on daily charts.
- Soft inflation and weak economic activity data in the Euro Area hint at an ECB pause in July.
- Geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on risk aversion and buoying Oil prices, which adds pressure on the Euro
The Euro (EUR) has given away most of the daily gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, returning to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475, which leaves the pair practically flat on the daily chart. Soft economic data from Eurozone countries, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and higher Oil prices, is posing a significant weight on the Euro rallies.
In Germany, June’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) confirmed previous estimations, showing that inflation slowed down to a 2.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) rate from 2.7% in May and from the April peak of 2.9%. Monthly inflation contracted 0.2%, also in line with preliminary estimations, and following a 0.1% contraction in May.
At a later time, INSEE revealed that France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also in line with the preliminary estimations. Yearly inflation eased to a 2% rate in June, from 2.8% in May, and monthly inflation contracted at a 0.3% rate, following a 0.1% uptick in the previous month.
Finally, data from Italy revealed that the country’s Industrial Output contracted 0.3% in May, nearly reversing April's 0.4% increase, and exceeding the 0.2% fall anticipated by the market consensus. In the 12 months to May, factory output grew 1.1%, unchanged from April, against expectations of a 1.3% increase.
All in all, figures hinting at moderating price pressures, combined with sluggish economic activity that will most likely prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting later in July.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, has pared some losses on Friday, with investors wary of risk amid the geopolitical uncertainty. US and Iran have halted hostilities, but the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed due to the recent developments, with no clear plan to reopen it as Washington and Iran clash on the status of the waterway. This is keeping Oil prices buoyed and acting as a headwind for any significant Euro recovery.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Silver price turns negative amid hopes that the Fed’s next monetary policy adjustment will be on the upside.
- Fears of prolonged US-Iran aggression are backing firm hawkish Fed prospects.
- Investors await the US CPI data for fresh cues regarding the current status of inflation.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surrenders its early gains and slides 0.73% to near $59.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal turns negative amid fears that the next monetary policy move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on the upside.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year is almost 80%.
Higher interest rates by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Hawkish Fed prospects remain firm amid fears of a prolonged United States (US)-Iran war, a scenario that will keep the energy supply disrupted. According to the Iranian state media, the US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran.
The longer the aggression between the US and Iran continues, the more likely it is that oil prices will remain higher.
In the last few months, the Silver price underperformed as higher oil prices de-anchored global inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, a sharp recovery in the US Dollar is also hurting the Silver price. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.87. The DXY recovered after revisiting the three-week low of 100.60.
Going forward, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6950 against the US Dollar, up 0.10% on the day despite pulling back from its recent high.
- Hopes for diplomatic progress with Iran weigh on the US Dollar, while persistent geopolitical risks limit its downside.
- The hawkish stance of the RBA continues to support the Australian Dollar and limits the pair's downside potential.
AUD/USD trades around 0.6950 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day after reaching a more than two-week high earlier in the day. The pair gives back part of its gains as investors remain caught between a weaker US Dollar (USD) and lingering factors supporting the Greenback.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) benefits from the weakness of the US Dollar, driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump said that Iran had reached out to seek an agreement with Washington, while a White House official confirmed that technical talks on Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz are continuing.
However, geopolitical concerns remain elevated following recent US strikes against Iranian targets and Tehran's retaliatory attacks on American interests across the region. At the same time, markets continue to price in at least one interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, a factor that helps limit losses in the US Dollar.
The Aussie also finds support from comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reaffirmed that the central bank will take whatever action is necessary to bring inflation back to target, warning that additional monetary tightening could be required if higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict lead to persistently higher inflation expectations.
On the US side, the Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting showed that several policymakers expect interest rates to remain close to current levels by the end of the year, although many also see the possibility of rates ending the year at a higher level. Meanwhile, Fed of New York President John Williams said he does not expect a sustained increase in energy prices despite the renewed hostilities in the Middle East.
With no major macroeconomic releases scheduled for Friday, investors remain focused on geopolitical developments and monetary policy expectations, which are likely to remain the main drivers of AUD/USD in the near term.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.35% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.20% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.11% | -0.26% | 0.10% | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.34% | 0.35% | 0.26% | 0.35% | 0.30% | 0.14% | 0.35% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.10% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.19% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.30% | 0.05% | -0.13% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.19% | 0.20% | 0.08% | -0.14% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.35% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- Gold heads for a weekly loss as renewed Middle East tensions revive inflation and Fed rate hike fears.
- Markets await next week's US CPI data for fresh clues on the Fed's monetary policy path.
- Technically, XAU/USD retains a bearish structure, trading below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday, struggling to build on the previous day's gains and heading for a weekly loss as renewed hostilities in the Middle East have revived fears of energy-driven inflation and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,098, down 0.60% on the day.
The metal, however, lacks follow-through selling as traders reassess US-Iran tensions following reports that technical talks are continuing despite the military clashes, prompting a pullback in crude Oil prices.
Can Gold stage a sustained recovery?
While Gold has staged a modest rebound from $3,941, its lowest level since November 2025, the metal is struggling to attract meaningful buying interest.
Since the US-Iran war broke out in February, Gold has behaved less like a traditional safe-haven asset and more like a rate-sensitive instrument, with price action largely driven by the hawkish repricing of Fed interest rates.
As a result, Gold posted its worst quarterly performance in thirteen years, while traders also booked profits following an exceptional two-year rally that pushed prices to a record high near $5,600 in January.
The near-term outlook is still tilted to the downside. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile, keeping the risk of energy-driven inflation at the forefront.
Even if geopolitical tensions ease and lower crude Oil prices help reduce inflation concerns, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance as policymakers continue to signal the central bank's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.
Gold is therefore unlikely to stage a sustained recovery as expectations for a Fed interest rate hike later this year continue to support the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 58% chance of a rate increase at the September meeting. Attention now turns to next week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, which could shape expectations for the Fed's interest rate path in the coming months.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD struggles below key resistance levels
On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains within a downward channel and is holding below the 50-day, 200-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which collectively cap the upside and reinforce a bearish bias.
Momentum is subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 hovering below the neutral 50 line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 37 points to a still-firm trend, suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant as Gold struggles to reclaim broken levels.
On the upside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near $4,200, ahead of the 50-day SMA around $4,352. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,493, with the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 100-day SMA at $4,593 likely to cap any recovery attempts.
On the downside, the next notable support sits at the horizontal level around $3,950, and a clear break below this floor would open the door to a deeper slide within the prevailing bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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