Forex News
- Silver is testing long-term highs at $42.75 favoured by broad-based Dollar weakness.
- Market expectations that the Fed will hint at a series of rate cuts are hammering the US Dollar.
- XAG/USD is reaching oversold levels, but downside attempts keep finding buyers.
Silver’s (XAG/USD) is trying to break all-time highs at $42.75 on Tuesday’s Early European session, favoured by broad-based US Dollar weakness, as the market braces for a “dovish cut” at the end of a two-day Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Precious metals have been thriving in recent days with investors pricing in a series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, starting with a quarter-point cut on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is testing two-month lows, just above 97.00, after depreciating nearly 1% from last week’s highs.
Technical analysis: XAG/USD has scope for further appreciation
The technical pìcture is bullish, Momentum indicators show overbought levels on intra-day charts –the 4-hour RSI is above 70, but US Dollar weakness keeps downside attempts limited.
To the upside, above the mentioned $42.75 resistance area, the $43.00 psychological level might hold bulls ahead of the 261.8% retracement of the September 8 rally, at $43.50.
The pair has solid support at a previous resistance in the area of $42.50. Below here, the September 14 and 15 low, at $42.00, and the September 8 high, at $41.65, would come into focus.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Canadian inflation is seen picking up pace in August.
- The headline Consumer Price Index is expected to remain below the target.
- The Canadian Dollar continues to trade within a consolidation range.
Statistics Canada will publish August’s inflation figures on Tuesday. The numbers will give the Bank of Canada (BoC) a fresh read on price pressure as the central bank weighs its next move on interest rates. The BoC is expected to trim the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday.
Economists expect the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slightly surpass the BoC’s 2.0% target in August, following a 1.7% annual gain in July. On a monthly basis, prices are still forecast to climb 0.1%.
The BoC will also be watching its preferred “core” measure, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components. In July, that gauge rose 2.6% from a year earlier and edged 0.1% higher from June.
While there are signs inflation is cooling, analysts remain wary. The threat of US tariffs pushing up domestic prices looms large, adding uncertainty to the outlook. For the time being, both markets and policymakers are likely to exercise caution.
What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?
The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.75% on July 30, a decision that lined up with market expectations.
Governor Tiff Macklem explained that the pause reflected lingering stickiness in inflation. The bank’s preferred core gauges, the trim mean and trim median, have been hovering near 3%, with a wider set of indicators also ticking higher. That shift, he admitted, has caught policymakers’ eyes and will be monitored closely in the months ahead.
Still, Macklem was keen to stress that not all of the recent price pressure will last. A firmer Canadian Dollar, slower wage growth, and an economy running below potential should all help ease inflation over time.
For markets, the headline CPI print will be the immediate focus. But at the BoC, attention will remain squarely on the details: the trim, median and common measures. The first two have picked up speed, feeding concern inside the bank, while the common gauge has stayed more restrained.
When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Markets will be watching closely on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, when Statistics Canada publishes the inflation report for the month of August. Traders are alert to the risk that price pressures could flare up again.
A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce concerns that tariff-related costs are beginning to filter through to consumers. That could make the Bank of Canada more cautious in its policy stance, a scenario that would likely lend short-term support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while keeping attention fixed on trade developments.
According to FXStreet’s Senior Analyst, Pablo Piovano, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been trading in a consolidative range against the US Dollar (USD) in the last few days, with USD/CAD orbiting the 1.3850 zone. He notes that renewed selling could see the pair drift back toward the August floor in the 1.3730-1.3720 band. Further support sits at the weekly base at 1.3575 (July 23) and the June valley at 1.3556 (July 3), before reaching the year’s bottom at 1.3538 (June 16).
On the topside, resistance is pegged at the August top at 1.3924 (August 22), followed by the 1.4000 round level, with the May ceiling at 1.4015 (May 13) being reinforced by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
From a broader perspective, Piovano argues that the bearish bias stays intact as long as spot trades beneath its 200-day SMA.
That said, momentum signals remain mixed: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased toward 55, hinting at waning upside momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 18 suggests that the broader trend is only slowly building strength.
Economic Indicator
BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.
Read more.Last release: Wed Jul 30, 2025 13:45
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 2.75%
Consensus: 2.75%
Previous: 2.75%
Source: Bank of Canada
Economic Indicator
BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)
The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.6%
Source: Statistics Canada
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 16:
The US Dollar (USD) stays under modest bearish pressure early Tuesday as investors adjust their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's critical two-day policy meeting. In the second half of the day, August Retail Sales, Import Price Index and Export Price Index data will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.54% | -0.59% | -0.53% | -0.51% | -0.35% | -0.38% | -0.56% | |
| EUR | 0.54% | -0.03% | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.22% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.59% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.25% | 0.14% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.53% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.51% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.00% | 0.27% | 0.09% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | -0.22% | -0.25% | -0.24% | -0.27% | -0.11% | -0.29% | |
| NZD | 0.38% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.11% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.56% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.29% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD Index closed in negative territory on Monday, pressured by the improving risk mood in the American session. Wall Street's main indexes opened on a bullish noted and closed in positive territory. Early Tuesday, the USD Index continues to push lower and was last seen trading at its lowest level in over two months, slightly above 97.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed.
The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported in the European morning that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in the three months to July, as anticipated. In this period, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, edged lower to 4.8% from 5% to match the market expectation. GBP/USD builds on Monday's gains and was last seen trading above 1.3620. The ONS will publish August inflation data on Wednesday.
EUR/USD benefits from the broad-based USD weakness and rises toward 1.1800 in the European morning on Tuesday. Later in the session, ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment data for Germany and the Eurozone, and July Industrial Production data for the Euro area will be watched closely by market participants.
After losing nearly 0.5% on Monday, USD/CAD edges lower and trades below 1.3800 in the European session on Tuesday. In the early American session, Statistics Canada will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce policy decisions.
USD/JPY turns south in the European morning and trades below 147.00. In the early Asian session, the Japanese economic calendar will feature Merchandise Trade Balance data for August.
Following a quiet start to the week, Gold gathered bullish momentum in the second half of the day on Monday and rose nearly 1%. XAU/USD continues to push higher and trades at a new record-high above $3,680 in the European session on Tuesday.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- EUR/JPY slips ahead of Eurozone Industrial Production figures and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey.
- The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% on Friday.
- The Euro receives support on hawkish comments from the ECB officials.
EUR/JPY depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 173.10 during the early European hours on Tuesday. Traders await seasonally adjusted Eurozone Industrial Production figures for July and German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment data for September.
The downside of the EUR/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) may lose ground amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% on Friday, given mixed economic signals and political uncertainty.
Traders are looking ahead to Japan’s August Merchandise Trade Balance, due Wednesday, which is expected to remain in deficit. Attention will then shift to Friday’s inflation data, with core CPI forecast to slow to 2.7%, marking its lowest level since November 2024.
The Euro (EUR) receives support from hawkish remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Tuesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are in a good place and added that upside risks to inflation continue to dominate. Schnabel said the growth is likely to exceed the potential, with domestic demand counteracting falling exports.
ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said Monday that policy should not be adjusted over “small deviations” from the inflation target, while warning of upside risks to inflation. Kazimir added that interest rates have been brought into neutral territory.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.25% | -0.31% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.31% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.00% | -0.17% | 0.19% | 0.36% | 0.25% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.25% | -0.00% | -0.14% | 0.19% | 0.37% | 0.25% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.31% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.32% | 0.43% | 0.14% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.32% | 0.11% | 0.03% | -0.24% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.36% | -0.37% | -0.43% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.25% | -0.25% | -0.14% | -0.03% | 0.03% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.06% | 0.24% | 0.41% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
German ZEW Survey Overview
The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 0900 GMT in the EU session later this Tuesday, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months.
The headline Economic Sentiment Index is expected to come in at 27.3 in September, as against the 34.7 reading booked in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is seen falling to -75 during the reported month from -68.6 in August.
How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the data, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US Dollar (USD) lifts the EUR/USD pair to the 1.1800 mark, or its highest level since July 3. A stronger-than-expected German data might fuel optimism about the economic outlook for the Eurozone's largest economy and provide an additional boost to the shared currency. This, in turn, should assist the EUR/USD pair in prolonging its upward trajectory.
Meanwhile, the market reaction to any disappointment is more likely to be limited amid diminishing odds for any further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside, and any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity.
Economic Indicator
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 16, 2025 09:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 27.3
Previous: 34.7
- The Euro ticked up from daily lows against the Pound, despite positive UK employment data.
- Net employment increased beyond expectations in August, with lower-than-forecasted jobless claims
- EUR/GBP remains trapped between 0.8635 and 0.8665 with all eyes on the BoE.
The Euro ticked up on Tuesday’s early European session following better-than-expected UK employment figures. The pair, however, remains trading sideways without a clear bias, consolidating losses between 0.8635 and 0.8665 following a reversal from early September highs above 0.8700.
Data released by National Statistics on Tuesday revealed that the UK Claimant Count Change increased by 17.4K in August, following a 33.3K decline in July, yet below market expectations of a 20K increment.
Beyond that, net employment rose by 232K, following July’s 239K and beating expectations of a 22K increase. The ILO Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% and wage growth moderated to a 4.8% yearly rate in the three months to July, from the previous 5% level.
These figures hardly change investors’ expectations that the Bank of England will keep its benchmark Repo Rate on hold after Thursday’s meeting, before a further quarter-point cut later in the year.
From a technical perspective, the immediate bias remains bearish, with the mentioned 0.8635 (September 10,15 lows) providing support ahead of the mid and late-August lows at the 0.8600-0.8610 area. Upside attempts are limited to 0.8665 (September 10,11 highs).
Economic Indicator
Claimant Count Change
The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Sep 16, 2025 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 17.4K
Consensus: 20.3K
Previous: -6.2K
Source: Office for National Statistics
The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
Economic Indicator
Employment Change (3M)
Employment Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics represents the change in the number of people who were employed in the UK in the three months to the release period. Generally, a healthy and consistent increase of this figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a decrease is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Oct 14, 2025 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: -
Previous: 232K
Source: Office for National Statistics
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