Forex News
- AUD/USD surges to near 0.7080 in Wednesday’s early European session, up 1.45% on the day.
- Trump announced he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
- Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes, which will be published later on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair climbs to around 0.7080, the highest since March 20, during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Greenback as the ceasefire between the US and Iran triggers a broad risk-on sentiment.
US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed "to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s military stated that it will coordinate the passage of vessels through the critical Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. Pakistan’s Prime Minister has invited delegations from both Iran and the US to Islamabad for negotiations on Friday.
The release of the FOMC Minutes will take center stage on Wednesday. Traders will take more cues about any signs of a shift in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) outlook, especially regarding the timing of potential rate cuts. Any hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers could lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% at its March meeting to combat sticky inflation. Market expectations for the May meeting lean toward another potential rate hike due to rising oil prices and a tight labor market. Westpac analysts anticipate the RBA to deliver three further rate hikes in 2026. This would take the cash rate to 4.85%, a level not seen since November 2008.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- NZD/USD may explore the area around the March high of 0.5996.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index rises above 50, confirming strengthening upside momentum.
- The pair is testing the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 0.5841.
NZD/USD gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5850 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a bullish reversal as the pair rises above the descending channel pattern.
The near-term bias turns cautiously bullish as the NZD/USD pair rebounds from recent lows and reclaims the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 50-day EMA flattens just below spot and starts acting as a nearby dynamic floor.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back above the 50 line, confirming improving upside momentum after a prolonged period of subdued strength and suggesting that dips are now attracting buyers rather than extending the prior downtrend.
A successful break above the confluence around the upper boundary of the descending channel has shifted the bias toward the upside and potentially opened the door for the NZD/USD pair to explore the region around the March high of 0.5996, recorded on March 2.
The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 0.5841. Further declines would push the NZD/USD pair toward the descending channel and to test the nine-day EMA support at 0.5761, followed by the five-month low of 0.5681, recorded on April 6. A break below the latter would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.5610, with additional support at 0.5580, the lowest since April 9, 2025, which was last seen in November 2025.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.85% | -0.98% | -0.89% | -0.29% | -1.40% | -1.86% | -1.21% | |
| EUR | 0.85% | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.56% | -0.55% | -1.05% | -0.38% | |
| GBP | 0.98% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.71% | -0.39% | -0.84% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.89% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.60% | -0.49% | -0.97% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | 0.29% | -0.56% | -0.71% | -0.60% | -1.08% | -1.55% | -0.92% | |
| AUD | 1.40% | 0.55% | 0.39% | 0.49% | 1.08% | -0.49% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 1.86% | 1.05% | 0.84% | 0.97% | 1.55% | 0.49% | 0.65% | |
| CHF | 1.21% | 0.38% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.92% | -0.14% | -0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- The Indian Rupee nears a three-week high against the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.
- Iran delivers a 10-point proposal plan to the US, which includes recognition of Tehran’s authority at Hormuz.
- The RBI leaves its Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh over three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.55% to near 99.00. WTI Oil price plummets almost 11% to near $90.00.
Iran agrees to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges for two weeks, as it has agreed to a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Meanwhile, Iran has also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening, and the delivery of the 10-point proposal, which includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.
The Hormuz reopening has battered the oil price badly, a scenario that is favorable for currencies from economies like India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
However, the continuation of the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling in the Indian stock market is expected to cap the upside in the Indian Rupee. So far in April, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 35,121.56 crore.
RBI leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept key interest rates unchanged in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, keeping the Repo Rate steady at 5.25%. The Indian central bank was expected to maintain the status quo, as the war in the Middle East has increased inflation globally.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated in the monetary policy statement that higher oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to impact growth this year. “Elevated crude oil prices could increase imported inflation and widen the current account deficit,” Malhotra said.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR refreshes over two-week low near 92.30
USD/INR declines to near 92.30 on Wednesday. The pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), shifting the near-term bias to mildly bearish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 47, moving below the 50 midline and confirming that sellers have gained control after the overbought readings seen above 70 in late March.
Immediate support emerges at 92.00 and then 91.50, where the previous consolidation zone sits. On the topside, initial resistance is now located at 93.00, with stronger resistance at 93.70 ahead of the recent 95.12 peak. As long as price holds below this resistance band while RSI remains under 50, rallies are expected to be capped and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)
The RBI Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of India. If the bank is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates, it is seen as positive, or bullish, for the INR, while a dovish outlook for the economy (or a rate cut) is seen as negative, or bearish, for the currency.
Read more.Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 5.25%
Consensus: 5.25%
Previous: 5.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of India
Danske Research Team reports that Brent crude fell as low as USD 92 per barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire, with Oil dropping below USD 100 as risk sentiment improved. However, they stress that sustained lower prices depend on a recovery in Oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and warn that the ceasefire deal remains fragile and uncertain.
Ceasefire-driven drop faces flow uncertainty
"With Trump's deadline fast approaching, the US president announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran."
"This provided an imminent relief for markets, with oil prices collapsing below USD100/barrel, US yields falling by more than 10bp across the curve and EUR/USD rallying towards 1.17."
"Brent crude fell as low as USD92/bbl on the news, but the drop in prices is contingent on the pre-condition that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes."
"For prices to stabilise at lower levels, oil and gas flows through the strait must pick up again, which remains uncertain."
"The deal looks fragile, particularly as Iran is allowed to charge fees on ships passing through."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Pound Sterling gains against the US Dollar as the latter plummets amid risk-on sentiment.
- A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has improved the market mood.
- Traders have priced out interest rate hikes by the Fed for this year.
The Pound Sterling surges against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets, is up 1% to near 1.3445 during the early European session. The announcement by United States (US) President Donald Trump that he has suspended planned attacks on Iran’s power plants, following Tehran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, has boosted the risk-on impulse.
S&P 500 futures gain over 2.7% in the European trade, reflecting strong demand for risk-sensitive assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.75% lower to near 98.75.
The US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as its safe-haven demand has diminished, and traders have pared bets supporting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced out the possibility of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike this year, a sharp turnaround from at least one hike projected after the war started on February 28.
In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. The impact of the FOMC minutes on the US Dollar is expected to be limited as remarks on the outlook for the economy and inflation by policymakers were majorly influenced by Middle East war risks.
GBP/USD technical analysis
During the press time, the GBP/USD pair trades higher at around 1.3445. The pair has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average after a prolonged spell below it, shifting the near-term bias to cautiously bullish, as price stabilizes above the recent congestion area around 1.3350. The reclaim of the average coincides with improving momentum, with RSI lifting to 56 from below 50, signaling building upside pressure after the late-March lows. This combination points to buyers regaining control while the broader structure still reflects a recovery phase rather than a fully established uptrend.
Initial resistance emerges at the March 23 high of 1.3480, with a break opening the path toward 1.3600 as the next upside objective. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 20-day EMA, and a close below this area would neutralize the current bullish tone and expose the 1.3300 region. As long as spot holds above 1.3370, the technical backdrop favors extensions higher toward 1.3480 and beyond.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
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