Forex News
- AUD/USD surged over 1% on Wednesday after the US and Iran struck a last-minute ceasefire, but gains stalled below 0.7100.
- Australian economic data is largely absent for the rest of the week, leaving Thursday's US PCE and Friday's CPI in the driver's seat.
AUD/USD gave back a portion of Wednesday's sharp rally, settling around 0.7050 after surging over 1% earlier in the session. The pair spiked to a three-week high near 0.7085 on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but momentum faded quickly as markets questioned the durability of the deal, with price pulling back into a tight range of small-bodied candles heading into the Asian open.
The ceasefire, which includes an agreement by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, initially crushed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and sent risk-sensitive currencies sharply higher. However, the deal is already proving tenuous; reports suggest neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and traders are treating the two-week window as a countdown rather than a resolution. On the Australian Dollar side, the domestic calendar is functionally empty for the remainder of the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, and markets are pricing the possibility of further tightening at the May decision as elevated energy costs keep inflation pressures alive.
With no local data to trade, attention shifts entirely to the US: Thursday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February and fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while Friday delivers March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data alongside the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7047. The pair holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7005, which suggests a mildly bullish intraday bias as price respects this underlying dynamic support. The Stochastic RSI near 71 hints at firm but increasingly stretched upside momentum, leaving room for consolidation or a shallow pullback while the price action stays supported above the 200-EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA around 0.7005, where buyers would be expected to defend the short-term uptrend if a corrective dip unfolds. As long as AUD/USD remains above this level, the near-term structure favors further recovery attempts, with any pause likely to develop as sideways consolidation rather than a deeper reversal in the very short term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- Fragile ceasefire headlines fade quickly, keeping risk sentiment unstable and supporting the USD.
- RBNZ's cautious stance limits NZD upside as policymakers balance inflation risks and weak growth.
- Fed’s steady tone and firm yields continue to underpin the Greenback.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5830 region on Thursday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regains some traction following shifting geopolitical headlines.
Market sentiment initially improved after reports suggested a potential ceasefire framework between the United States, Iran, and Israel. However, optimism faded quickly as the agreement appears fragile, with key conditions still unresolved and ongoing military activity in the Middle East continuing to weigh on confidence.
From a macro perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains in a delicate position. Inflation remains slightly above the 1–3% target band, but policymakers have signaled a willingness to “look through” energy-driven price pressures unless they spill over into broader inflation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to project a cautious but firm stance. Recent communication, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, reinforced a data-dependent approach, with policymakers acknowledging inflation risks tied to higher oil prices.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5822, holding a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. Price action is now probing a band of overhead levels after reclaiming the 0.58 handle, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5839, followed closely by 0.5847, with further bullish targets at 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 if buying pressure extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5816 ahead of 0.5809, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 100-period SMA around 0.5780 and then the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 to maintain the broader constructive structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- AUD/JPY rises as ceasefire optimism boosts global risk appetite.
- RSI tilts lower despite bullish bias, signaling fading upside momentum.
- Break below 111.50 exposes 111.00 and 110.47 support levels.
The Australian Dollar extended its gains versus the Japanese Yen, driven by an improvement in risk appetite amid the two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran. Still, traders must be aware that hostilities remain as Israel strikes Beirut, saying that Lebanon is not part of the deal. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 111.79, up 0.39%.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY seems poised to consolidate, as it forms a quasi-shooting star, preceded by an uptrend that is about to close below the candle's half-size, an indication that buyers are losing momentum.
This is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is bullish, but tilted to the downside, towards the index`s 50-neutral level. Hence, a clear break below 50 would mean that sellers are gaining momentum, pushing the AUD/JPY lower.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to clear the April 8 daily high at 112.38, which would open the path to challenge 113.00. Further resistance lies overjed at 113.96, the March 11 peak.
Conversely, if AUD/JPY drops to 111.50, a psychological level a move towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.02 and the 111.00 figure is likely. Below here, sellers are gradually taking hold, driving the cross towards the 50-day SMA at 110.47, ahead of the 110.00 milestone.
AUD/JPY Price — Chart
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.21% | -1.55% | -0.63% | -0.68% | -2.20% | -2.21% | -1.12% | |
| EUR | 1.21% | -0.35% | 0.57% | 0.56% | -1.02% | -1.02% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 1.55% | 0.35% | 0.87% | 0.88% | -0.66% | -0.68% | 0.43% | |
| JPY | 0.63% | -0.57% | -0.87% | -0.05% | -1.55% | -1.55% | -0.53% | |
| CAD | 0.68% | -0.56% | -0.88% | 0.05% | -1.54% | -1.52% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | 2.20% | 1.02% | 0.66% | 1.55% | 1.54% | -0.02% | 1.11% | |
| NZD | 2.21% | 1.02% | 0.68% | 1.55% | 1.52% | 0.02% | 1.12% | |
| CHF | 1.12% | -0.08% | -0.43% | 0.53% | 0.44% | -1.11% | -1.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD jumps on ceasefire optimism and hawkish RBNZ commentary.
- RSI breaks above 50, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
- Failure above the 200-day SMA risks a pullback toward 0.5800 support.
The NZD/USD pair rallies sharply on Wednesday, boosted by a double whammy: The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and hawkish remarks by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor, Anna Breman, following the bank’s monetary policy meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.5816 after rebounding at daily lows of 0.5715.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is set to consolidate after reaching a two-week high of 0.5860, but it has failed to sustain its gains above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5849, which could exacerbate a fall below 0.5800.
Nevertheless, momentum shifted bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) spiking above its 50-neutral level, an indication that buyers are gaining strength.
Should the pair regain the 100-day SMA at 0.5840, it will expose the 200-day SMA immediately at 0.5859. Once those levels are taken out, a rally towards 0.5900 is on the cards. A break above puts into play the 50-day SMA at 0.5904, followed by the March 10 high at 0.5964.
On the flipside, if NZD/USD drops below 0.5800, it will find fresh buying interest at the 20-day SMA at 0.5784. The break of support opens the way for a test of the April 8 daily low at 0.5715, ahead of 0.5700.
NZD/USD Price — Chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues Singapore’s energy system and fiscal strength materially limit near‑term tail risks from Middle East tensions. The city‑state benefits from deep infrastructure, diversified sourcing, large inventories and untapped fuel reserves, plus the ability to switch fuels and expand reserves. Strong public finances allow further stockpiling and targeted support if disruptions through Strait of Hormuz persist.
Infrastructure and fiscal space support resilience
"Singapore’s energy resilience materially limits tail risks in the near term. The city-state enters this shock with well-established buffers. Deep energy infrastructure, diversified energy sourcing, and strong logistical capacity significantly reduce vulnerability to near-term supply disruptions. Fuel reserves remain untapped, and no rationing measures have been introduced so far."
"As a global bunkering hub, Singapore holds large inventories and storage capacity, underpinning resilience against temporary supply shocks."
"While natural gas accounts for ~95% of electricity generation and Qatari supplies face stress, mitigation options are substantial. Singapore imports LNG from Australia and the US, retains ability to switch to diesel for electricity generation, and holds strategic fuel reserves owned by the government and power generators."
"That said, vulnerabilities would rise if disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz prove prolonged, reinforcing policymakers’ view that fuel reserves will need to be further expanded."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Here is what you need to know for Thursday, April 9:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm near 99.10, supported by safe-haven demand late in the American session with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious on easing. Markets reacted swiftly after the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which largely confirmed that policymakers remain cautious and in no rush to cut rates, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” stance.
The Minutes showed that officials are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation risks, particularly those stemming from elevated energy prices linked to ongoing Middle East hostilities. While the Fed acknowledged some cooling in parts of the economy, it emphasized that inflation progress remains uneven, keeping the bar high for any policy easing.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to cloud the outlook. Despite headlines of a temporary ceasefire between the United States, Iran and Israel, markets remain skeptical as conditions tied to the agreement have yet to be fulfilled, and tensions persist across the region.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.72% | -0.59% | -0.21% | -0.86% | -1.41% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.28% | -0.36% | -0.95% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.69% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.36% | -0.26% | -0.84% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | 0.21% | -0.28% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -0.61% | -1.18% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.61% | -0.58% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 1.41% | 0.95% | 0.69% | 0.84% | 1.18% | 0.58% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.48% | -0.13% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD surged near the 1.1720 region earlier in the day but are now pulling back toward 1.1650 as the stronger USD and lingering Eurozone growth concerns limit upside attempts.
GBP/USD gained traction, trading around the 1.3380 level, hovering near multi-week lows, after trading as high as 1.3484.
USD/JPY fell toward the 158.70 zone, retracing some of its losses but still in the red due to geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD clung onto large gains near the 0.7030 price zone, though falling from earlier heights near 0.7080. The pair is weighed down by risk aversion and a cautious outlook despite relatively stable domestic conditions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices fell sharply to the $95.00 per barrel as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz seems to have dissipated momentarily, with supply risks still in focus despite fragile ceasefire headlines.
Gold trades near $4,709, supported by geopolitical uncertainty earlier in the day, but remained in a neutral zone as risk dissipated.
What’s next in the docket:
Thursday, April 9
- Germany Trade Balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Personal Income
- US Personal Spending
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- Canadian Employment data
- US CPI
- US Factory Orders
- US Michigan Consumer Index’s
- US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations
- US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
- US Monthly Budget Statement
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
BNP Paribas analysts assess that in the United States (USD), demand remains the main driver of inflation, though its contribution has eased from post‑Covid peaks. Using (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and San Francisco Fed methodology, they find supply factors are again relevant, similar to 2018–19 levels, with tariffs, higher input prices and longer delivery times likely to keep supply‑side inflation pressures elevated.
Demand-led inflation shows signs of cooling
"In the United States, demand plays a more significant role in inflation, but less so than in 2022 In the absence of a survey similar to that conducted by the European Commission, we use a different method to compare the impact of supply and demand: we examine the direct contributions of supply and demand to inflation dynamics based on a breakdown between these two factors, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (using a methodology developed by A. Shapiro from the San Francisco Fed)."
"Although significantly lower than in 2022, the contribution of supply to inflation is not negligible and plays roughly the same role as in 2018–19."
"These constraints even appear to have increased slightly since the Trump administration’s tariff hikes and are likely to rise further with the recent rebound in input prices and delivery times."
"The contribution of demand to inflation continues to be more substantial, reflecting the resilience of consumption (and its post-Covid outperformance)."
"However, this momentum has been moderating in recent months, against a backdrop of a deteriorating labour market."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf accused the US and Israel of ceasefire violations just hours after the truce was announced.
- The FOMC's March Minutes showed many policymakers flagged the risk that rate hikes could be needed if inflation stays elevated.
- Thursday's core PCE and Friday's March CPI round out a data-heavy back half of the week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to grind lower during the front half of the US trading session on Wednesday, falling roughly 1% from the prior session's close near 100.00 to tag a low around 98.50 as the US-Iran ceasefire announcement triggered a broad wave of risk-on selling in the US Dollar. The index has since recovered back above 99.00, trimming about half of the session's losses as ceasefire complications mounted through the back end of the New York trading window.
The initial Dollar sell-off followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week "double-sided ceasefire" with Iran, brokered by Pakistan and contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted swiftly, with Crude Oil plunging over 15% and global equities surging on hopes that the five-week conflict was nearing a resolution. However, optimism is fading quickly.
Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X, accusing the US and Israel of violating the terms of the tentative truce, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the ceasefire "does not include Lebanon" and launched a fresh wave of strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Iran's Fars news agency reported that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was halted again following the Israeli strikes, and Tehran warned it would withdraw from the agreement entirely if fighting in Lebanon continued. The rapid unraveling pushed the US Dollar off its lows as safe-haven demand began to creep back in.
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) March 17 to 18 Meeting Minutes, released earlier on Wednesday, struck a notably cautious tone. The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% by an 11 to 1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were both elevated, and the majority noted these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East. Critically, many policymakers pointed to the risk that inflation could stay elevated for longer amid persistently high oil prices, noting this "could call for rate increases" to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Some participants argued there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the Committee's future rate decisions, explicitly flagging the possibility of hikes if inflation failed to cool. Options pricing discussed in the Minutes showed the probability of rate hikes through early next year had risen to about 30%. On the labor market side, the vast majority saw downside risks to employment skewed lower, with many warning that low rates of net job creation left the labor market vulnerable to adverse shocks, particularly from a protracted Middle East conflict. Most participants reiterated it was too early to know how the war would ultimately affect the US economy, but the overall tone leaned hawkish relative to the January Minutes.
DXY 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.12, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains capped by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 99.33. The index is attempting to stabilize after its earlier decline, but the inability to reclaim this overhead dynamic barrier suggests rallies are still vulnerable. A high and rising Stochastic RSI around overbought territory hints that upside momentum has stretched, increasing the risk of a pause or minor pullback while price trades under the 200-period EMA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period EMA at 99.33, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the door to a more constructive recovery phase. On the downside, with no clear intraday moving-average or structural supports visible in the provided data, short-term dips may look to recent price congestion zones for tentative demand, but the broader tone stays pressured while the index holds beneath the 99.33 resistance cap.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- USD/CHF drops below 200-day SMA as risk sentiment improves sharply.
- RSI turns lower, signaling growing bearish momentum in the near term.
- Failure to reclaim 0.7940 exposes 0.7812 support and deeper downside.
The USD/CHF pair retreats some 0.85% on Wednesday after failing to clear the Tuesday daily high of 0.8011, as the pair slides beneath the 200-day SMA of 0.7940, as market sentiment gets lifted by a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict. The pair trades at 0.7909 after reaching a low of 0.7869.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Despite retreating, USD/CHF remains upward-biased, bouncing off key support at the March 3 daily high, which turned into support at 0.7879, reclaiming the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7886, and climbing above 0.7900.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the neutral level but plunging, poised to turn bearish, an indication that sellers are gaining momentum. Should price action follow suit the RSI, USD/CHF could challenge the 50-day SMA at 0.7812 in the short term.
Otherwise, if USD/CHF climbs back above the 200-day SMA at 0.7940, a move back towards 0.8000 is on the cards.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
Swiss Franc Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.63% | -0.83% | -0.63% | -0.27% | -0.98% | -1.52% | -0.80% | |
| EUR | 0.63% | -0.21% | 0.00% | 0.36% | -0.35% | -0.94% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.58% | -0.11% | -0.68% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.63% | 0.00% | -0.21% | 0.36% | -0.31% | -0.88% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.27% | -0.36% | -0.58% | -0.36% | -0.68% | -1.24% | -0.54% | |
| AUD | 0.98% | 0.35% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.68% | -0.57% | 0.14% | |
| NZD | 1.52% | 0.94% | 0.68% | 0.88% | 1.24% | 0.57% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.80% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.17% | 0.54% | -0.14% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that USD/INR has dropped sharply as RBI’s targeted regulatory measures curbed speculative positioning and tightened market microstructure. Stricter limits on net open FX positions and restrictions on INR NDFs have constrained USD long building. With bullish momentum fading, they see consolidation now but more downside in USD/INR if Iran tensions de-escalate.
Regulation-driven drop with de-escalation kicker
"USDINR has traded sharply lower the past few sessions, owing to RBI’s targeted regulatory measures at curbing speculative positioning and tightening market microstructure."
"The measures include stricter limits on net open FX positions in INR at USD100mn, effective 10 April."
"This effectively forces banks to scale back long USD (short INR) positions, in turn providing support for INR."
"Taken together, these measures effectively constrained the market’s ability to build USD long positions, in turn compressing speculative demand and forcing a rebalancing of positioning."
"There could be more room for USD/INR to fall should geopolitical de-escalation in Iran comes into sight."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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