Forex News
- AUD/USD holds gains as AUD is supported by rising RBA rate hike expectations.
- As of April 24, ASX May 2026 futures at 95.745 imply 74% odds of a 4.35% RBA hike.
- The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s April policy meeting.
AUD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.7190 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support, rising expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hikes.
Australia’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be eyed on Wednesday, with headline annual inflation expected to rise 4.7%, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. Any upside surprise could reinforce expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May 5 meeting.
As of April 24, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures May 2026 contract was trading at 95.745, implying a 74% probability of a rate increase to 4.35% at the upcoming RBA Board meeting.
However, the potential upside of the AUD/USD pair might be limited as market sentiment remains fragile due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. However, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, per Bloomberg. US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that excludes Iran’s nuclear program.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the economy is rebounding moderately with sustained wage growth momentum, but the outlook calls for caution. Meanwhile, economy minister Minoru Kiuchi stated that he hopes the Bank of Japan (BoJ) aligns communication and policy coordination with the government to sustainably reach the 2% inflation goal.
Key quotes
Economy is rebounding moderately with sustained wage growth momentum, but outlook calls for caution.
Plans to review currency swap deals with Asian nations ahead of ADB, ASEAN plus talks.
Fluctuations in crude oil futures impacting forex, prepared to act decisively.
To cooperate closely with US, will take action if needed.
Standing by 24/7.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.01% on the day at 159.40.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD posts modest gains near 1.1725 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends.
- Traders brace for the Fed and ECB rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1725 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the potential upside might be limited as market sentiment remains fragile due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later this week.
Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, per Bloomberg.
However, US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that excludes Iran’s nuclear program. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the major pair.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold.
Traders await Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy meeting for fresh impetus. If Powell adopts a higher-for-longer stance or signals that rate hikes are back on the table, this could underpin the Greenback in the near term.
Across the pond, economists anticipate the ECB not making any moves at its meeting on Thursday and keeping its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has been since June last year. Policymakers could adopt a wait-and-see approach amid high economic uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East. ECB official Martins Kazaks said last week that "we still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but a hike is not off the table.
- Uncertainty spurring from the Middle East war will take its toll on the decision.
- Macro fundamentals back the case for additional rate hikes in Japan.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hawkish hold, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% while also hinting at a willingness to hike rates. The latest change in interest rates took place in December, when BoJ officials hiked by 25 basis points (bps)
Japanese policymakers are between a rock and a hard place: The Middle East war is a global source of uncertainty, while the local macro puts pressure on policymakers to act promptly.
Hotter-than-expected inflation and a tightening labor market hint at faster interest rate hikes, which run counter to the BoJ officials' views.
In the meantime, the Middle East war continues. Hopes for a quick resolution fade as time goes by, with the war about to turn two months old.
What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?
According to the latest available data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% YoY in March, up from 1.3% in February and above the 1.4% anticipated by market players. Core annual inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 1.8%, up from the expected 1.5%. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate stood at 2.6% in February.
If the BoJ could base monetary policy solely on these data, policymakers should pull the trigger in this meeting. However, the ongoing crisis in the Middle East paints a different picture. Rising Oil prices and persistent supply disruptions are expected to have a profound and prolonged impact on inflation worldwide. Japan is no exception. That opens the door for a surprise interest rate hike, although we are talking about Japan, and surprises are not usually in their script.
Policymakers are well aware of the situation. In a press conference in Washington following the 20-G meeting, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that higher Oil prices “pose both upside risks to prices and downside risks to the economy, making policy responses difficult.”
Ueda added: “Developments in the Middle East will be a crucial factor (for the BoJ's policy decision), but the outlook remains quite uncertain." Finally, he repeated the central bank’s commitment to price stability: “We will take the most appropriate response to achieve our 2% price target in a sustainable and stable way.”
Governor Ueda will offer a press conference following the rate announcement, as usual. And while market participants anticipate a hawkish lean, the focus will be on how hawkish Japanese policymakers are willing to be in such an uncertain environment.
How could the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision affect USD/JPY?
Heading into the announcement, market participants expect the BoJ to hold its fire but deliver at least 50 bps rate hikes through 2026. The monetary policy Board is likely to keep rates on hold in its April meeting, not because it is the right decision, but to prevent a market shock. Policymakers are likely to anticipate additional rates coming, which will not be a big surprise.
There are two quite hawkish scenarios. The first would be the BoJ actually triggering a rate hike. The second would be to directly pre-announce a rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, if officials hint at worries about growth, something that so far they have avoided, the case for additional rate hikes will increase, and hence, boost demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The odds for any of those happening are quite limited.
A dovish announcement is off the table, given the ongoing Middle East war.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The USD/JPY pair trades in quite a limited range just below 160.00 since early April, driven by sentiment related to the Persian Gulf crisis. Speculative interest is looking at the US Dollar (USD) as the preferred safe-haven, with optimism boosting demand for the Greenback, and pessimism leading to USD sell-offs. The BoJ announcement, unless a surprise, is likely to have a limited impact on the pair.”
Bednarik adds: “From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair is neutral. In the daily chart, the pair develops around a flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has been unable to find a way since early April. The 100- and 200-day SMAs keep heading higher, far below the current level, in line with the former dominant bullish trend. At the same time, the pair develops not far below its 2026 peak in the 160.40 region. Finally, technical indicators head marginally lower within neutral levels, far from providing a clear directional clue. The pair could fall with a hawkish announcement, with a break below 159.00 opening the door for a test of the 158.40 region. Below the latter, the slide could continue towards 157.90. As previously noted, 160.00 provides resistance in the case of sudden JPY weakness, with additional gains aiming to retest the year high.”
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Economic Indicator
BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
At the end of each of its eight policy meetings, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases an official monetary policy statement explaining its policy decision. By communicating the committee's decision as well as its view on the economic outlook and the fall of the committee’s votes regarding whether interest rates or other policy tools should be adjusted, the statement gives clues as to future changes in monetary policy. The statement may influence the volatility of the Japanese Yen (JPY) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for JPY, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 28, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Bank of Japan
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States (US) will place sanctions on anyone conducting business with sanctioned Iranian airlines as commercial flights resume from Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
Key quotes
Treasury will impose maximum pressure on Iran.
Working with Iranian airlines risks sanctions.
Discussed risks from overcapacity production with the EU.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.35% on the day at $94.65.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim argue that the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, pushing inflation forecasts higher while leaving growth risks skewed to the downside. They see Brent averaging around USD110 before easing to USD80, expect most Asian central banks to stay on hold, and note Asian currencies have weakened versus the Dollar.
War-driven stagflation and FX pressure
"The war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, the region most exposed to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The inflation forecasts are revised up across the board while growth risks are skewed to the downside, most acutely for the Philippines and Thailand. The AI-investment boom is partly cushioning the blow for the major electronics exporters, though the sector also has direct Gulf exposure via helium and specialty gases."
"Most Asian central banks are likely to stay on hold, caught between spiking inflation and fragile growth. The exceptions are Singapore and the Philippines which have already tightened policy. Asian currencies, down around 2.2% against the USD since end-February, are absorbing the shock for now, but depreciation pressure remains."
"For Asian GDP growth, most forecasts are unchanged for now but the risks are tilted to the downside, particularly if the war drags on and oil prices remain elevated. Our base case is that Brent oil prices will average around USD110 to May and settle around USD80 in H2 2026. We kept China’s growth forecast unchanged at 4.0% as it was already below the market consensus."
"Our base case assumes the conflict de-escalates by end-May and passage through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes progressively in H2. Brent oil is forecast to settle around USD80 in H2. Under this scenario, central banks can treat the inflation spike as transitory. A prolonged closure materially changes the calculus."
"The oil shock has led to a broad upward revision in the inflation forecasts for Asian economies. The hit to growth varies across Asia, with the Philippines and Thailand the most vulnerable. The electronics exporters are better placed to absorb the shock, underpinned by the AI-investment cycle."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/USD settled Monday flat near Friday's close, with the central bank double-header keeping price tied near 1.3540.
- The Fed is set to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday in Powell's final meeting before his May 15 chair term ends.
- The BoE meets Thursday with all 62 economists in a Reuters poll seeing a hold at 3.75%, though hike risks have crept in.
GBP/USD ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids close to 1.3535, with the pair drifting in a tight range through the European and US sessions. Price tagged a session high near 1.3575 in early dealing before fading back to the 1.3535 area, where small-bodied candles and overlapping bodies pointed to indecision. The pair is consolidating near the upper end of an April recovery that began from the 1.3160 area, with markets reluctant to commit ahead of this week's central bank double-header.
The Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) both deliver rate decisions this week, a back-to-back setup that effectively sets the tone for the pair through May. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April brings no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to do the work amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, layering leadership-transition risk on top of the policy event. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY), and Friday's ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) round out a packed US data calendar.
On the Pound Sterling side, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets Thursday with all 62 economists in a Reuters poll calling for a hold at 3.75% after March's unanimous vote to keep rates steady. The picture has shifted notably since the Iran conflict reignited inflation pressures, with markets now split between a hold and a hike rather than the two cuts priced before the war. Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that the world is facing "a very big energy shock" but signalled the BoE will not rush to act, while previous Bank staff projections pointed to UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation drifting back toward the 2.0% target through Q2. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report, MPC vote split (consensus 8 hold, 1 hike), and Bailey's 11:30 GMT press conference Thursday will carry the message, with Chief Economist Huw Pill's Friday speech the week's closing UK catalyst against a still-fragile US-Iran ceasefire backdrop.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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