Forex News
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing marked losses against both the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) as the NA session draws to a close on Thursday.
Focus remains on the Middle East, energy prices, and the SNB
The ongoing depreciation of the Swiss currency has pushed USD/CHF to fresh multi-day highs around 0.7850, while EUR/CHF has managed to reverse two consecutive days of losses, advancing modestly to the 0.9040 zone.
In the current flight-to-safety context, the Franc appears to be struggling against the Greenback. However, it is widely anticipated that it will regain demand if the geopolitical landscape deteriorates further, which, regrettably, seems quite likely.
Another factor supporting the CHF is expected to arise from the energy sector, as both crude oil and gas prices continue their intense rally unabated, raising doubts about any prospects of alleviating inflationary pressures on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the meantime, the possibility of intervention by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should caution investors against pursuing further appreciation of the Franc, particularly in the current climate of safe haven demand.
Tech levels to watch
The surpass of the March ceiling at 0.7878 (March 3) could motivate USD/CHF to face its interim 100-day SMA at 0.7899, seconded by the always relevant 200-day SMA at 0.7959. In contrast, once the March base at 0.7668 (March 2) is breached, the pair could shift its attention to the February trough at 0.7628 (February 10) and then the 2026 valley at 0.7601 (January 28).
Regarding EUR/CHF, next on the downside comes the all-time low at 0.8980 (March 9).
SNB FAQs
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
Here is what you need to know for Friday, March 13:
The new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that attacks on neighboring country military bases will inevitably continue, also adding that “Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs”. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz are spiking after Iran reportedly targeted two Oil tankers, raising concerns about further disruptions to global energy supply. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 7 fell to 213K, a little below the 215K forecast.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 99.70 price region, reaching levels it hasn’t reached since November 2025. The Greenback has gained support all throughout Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.43% | 0.25% | 0.24% | 0.95% | 0.94% | 0.56% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.17% | 0.54% | 0.57% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | -0.43% | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.19% | 0.52% | 0.54% | 0.12% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.03% | 0.69% | 0.70% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.72% | 0.74% | 0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.95% | -0.54% | -0.52% | -0.69% | -0.72% | 0.03% | -0.40% | |
| NZD | -0.94% | -0.57% | -0.54% | -0.70% | -0.74% | -0.03% | -0.44% | |
| CHF | -0.56% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.26% | -0.29% | 0.40% | 0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is losing its footing for three days in a row and now resides near 1.1520 as the US-Iran war keeps the Greenback firm.
GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3360 level, falling for a third consecutive day amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, according to a Reuters poll, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold the interest rate at 3.75% on March 19, with 43 of 50 economists, or 86%, expecting a hold.
USD/JPY is trading near 159.40 as the USD reaches start-of-year highs amid the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual pace of policy normalization, meaning that as other major banks maintain higher interest rates, the BoJ continues to tighten its policy.
AUD/USD is trading near the 0.7090 price region, falling from the four-day bullish streak it had going on as the Aussie couldn’t hold the USD's firmer stance.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $94 per barrel as the black gold builds up a three-day bullish streak after dropping from $120 at the start of the week.
Gold is trading at $5,111 after trading in a neutral zone almost all week before slipping on Thursday below the $5,150 level earlier in the Asian session. Investors are more attracted to a firm Greenback and have given the bullion a cold shoulder.
What’s next in the docket:
Friday, March 13:
- UK, January, GDP.
- UK, January, Manufacturing Production.
- Spain, February, HICP.
- Eurozone, January, Industrial Production s.a.
- Canada, February, Average Hourly Wages.
- Canada, February, Net Change in Employment.
- Canada, February, Unemployment Rate.
- United States, January, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures.
- United States, January, Durable Goods Orders.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Gross Domestic Product Annualized.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Gross Domestic Product Price Index.
- United States, January, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft.
- United States, January, Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index.
- United States, Flash (Q4), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices.
- United States, January, Personal Income.
- United States, January, Personal Spending.
- United States, Flash March, Michigan Consumer Expectations Index.
- United States, Flash March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
- United States, Flash March, UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations.
- United States, January, JOLTS Job Openings.
- United States, Flash March, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- WTI surges more than 7.5% as prices extend the recovery from Monday’s sharp reversal.
- Iran signals the Hormuz closure could continue, while the US plans naval escorts for oil tankers.
- Technically, WTI maintains a strong bullish bias as prices hold above key moving averages, with RSI in overbought territory.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil continues to experience extreme volatility, with prices rising more than 7.5% on Thursday as traders grow increasingly concerned about prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran war.
At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $94.31, extending gains for the third consecutive day after Monday’s sharp two-way price swings, when the US benchmark briefly surged to $113 before reversing and closing near $83.36.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should continue as a tool to pressure Iran’s enemies.
Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the world is facing a significant short-term supply disruption and that Washington will work with other nations to restore tanker traffic through the strategic waterway, adding that US Navy escorts for oil tankers could begin by the end of the month.
Separately, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced plans to release around 400 million barrels of Oil from its members’ strategic reserves to stabilize markets, though the move did little to calm fears of supply shortages.
The agency warned that the Middle East war is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global Oil market, while also lowering its 2026 global Oil demand growth forecast to 640,000 barrels per day from 850,000 bpd previously.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows WTI accelerating higher above the rising 21, 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), highlighting strong bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding deep in overbought territory near 81, suggesting stretched upside conditions but not yet signaling a clear reversal. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is climbing toward the high-40s, pointing to a strong and strengthening trend, while the rising Average True Range (ATR) reflects elevated market volatility.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $94.61, measured from the $113.28 high to the $75.95 low. A sustained move above this level could open the door toward the 61.8% retracement at $99.02.
Further strength may target the 78.6% retracement near $105.29, while a deeper recovery could bring the focus back to the $113.28 peak, which marks the next major resistance zone.
On the downside, initial support emerges near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $90.21, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $84.76 if overbought conditions trigger a correction. A deeper pullback could bring the Tuesday swing low near $75.95 (0% Fibonacci level) into focus, with additional support seen around the 21-day Simple Moving Average near $72.20.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The US Dollar is gaining extra pace and climbing to multi-month highs.
- The geopolitical factor continues to lend support to the safe haven space.
- US PCE and Q4 GDP data comes next on the US calendar.
The US Dollar (USD) picks up further pace on Thursday, largely exceeding the 99.00 hurdle to hit fresh multi-month tops while nearing the psychological 100.00 hurdle on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Geopolitics props up the uptick
Indeed, the index has been advancing for the third consecutive day, paving the way for additional short-term gains. Meanwhile, the current flight-to-safety environment, coupled with a rise in US Treasury yields, continues to support the buck.
Returning to geopolitics, the ongoing tensions from the US-Israel-Iran front are driving demand for safe haven assets, where the Greenback continues to outperform its peers.
On the docket, weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped marginally to 213K in the week ending March 7, falling short of consensus and supporting the Greenback from the domestic side.
Moving forward, inflation measured by the PCE, another revision of the Q4 GDP figures, and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index print should set the tone at the end of the week.
What about techs?
Next on the upside for DXY comes the psychological 100.00 barrier. Once this region is cleared, the index might attempt a move toward the November 2025 top at 100.39 (November 21), prior to the May 2025 high at 101.97 (May 12).
On the flip side, the loss of the critical 200-day SMA at 98.34 could pave the way for a deeper decline to the provisional 55-day SMA at 98.05, ahead of the February floor at 96.49 (February 11) and the 2026 bottom at 95.55 (January 27).
(This story was corrected on March 12 at 18:21 GMT to say that Initial Jobless Claims dropped in the week ending March 7, not March 3.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- The US Dollar and Oil surged as fears of oil supply disruption took their toll on sentiment.
- US President Donald Trump claimed the country is the world's largest oil producer.
- EUR/USD trades near 1.1500 and is biased lower in the near term.
The US Dollar (USD) trades with a firmer tone across the FX board in the American session on Thursday, as persistent concerns about oil supply disruptions undermine the market’s mood. The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1520 price zone, not far above the 2026 low at 1.1507.
The focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz closure and the back-and-forth attacks. Despite the United States (US) claiming it will grant passage through the Strait, it is clearly under Iranian control: Several tankers from neighboring countries have been attacked, and different news agencies reported that Iran laid mines in the passage. Even further, the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a statement in which he declared that the Strait should remain closed as a tool to pressure the enemy.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump claimed that, given that the US is the largest oil producer in the world, when prices go up, they “make a lot of money,” somehow dismissing concerns about Brent surpassing $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading above $ 90.
Tensions are likely to maintain the USD on its bullish route, particularly if attacks continue.
On Friday, market participants will be looking for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release. The country will publish January data, after December figures showed core PCE inflation at 3%%.
Technical Analysis:
In the 1-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1523. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds below the 20-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which all slope lower and cap recovery attempts. The same chart shows that technical indicators remain below their midlines, with modest upward slopes, not enough to confirm a firmer recovery but rather reflecting the pause in the decline.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-period SMA near 1.1540, followed by the 100-period SMA around 1.1585 and then the 200-period SMA close to 1.1606, where a break would be needed to ease the bearish tone. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 2026 low at 1.1507, with a decisive break opening the path toward the 1.1470 price zone, a strong static support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 12 at 18:47 to say that the US core PCE print in December was 3%, not 2.9%.)
- Gold trades on the back foot amid a firmer US Dollar.
- US-Iran war supports safe-haven demand, but Oil-driven inflation fears cap gains in the yellow metal.
- Technically, XAU/USD continues to consolidate within the $5,000-$5,250 range.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades under pressure on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising Treasury yields cap upside attempts. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $5,113, down nearly 1.20% on the day.
However, the precious metal remains trapped within a familiar range and lacks strong directional momentum as traders weigh opposing macroeconomic forces. The ongoing US-Iran war continues to underpin safe-haven demand and help limit deeper losses.
At the same time, concerns that the conflict could trigger an Oil-driven inflation shock are reinforcing a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) narrative that keeps the USD and Treasury yields broadly elevated, limiting Gold’s upside.
Fed rate-cut bets fade as US-Iran war intensifies
The US-Iran war entered its thirteenth day on Thursday, with attacks intensifying across the Middle East and no clear signs of de-escalation.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled that Tehran would only consider ending the conflict under certain conditions, including recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights,” payment of war reparations, and guarantees against future aggression.
The conflict is disrupting global Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran targeting Oil tankers and commercial vessels near the key shipping route, raising concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should continue as a tool to pressure Iran’s enemies.
Oil prices have surged sharply since the conflict began and remain volatile despite efforts to calm the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, including 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
According to a BHH report, nearly 15 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude Oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or about 10 mb/d assuming alternative routes operate at full capacity. Based on these estimates, the IEA’s Oil stock release could cover roughly 27 to 40 days of supply disruption.
Against this backdrop, markets no longer fully price in even one 25 basis point (bps) cut in 2026, marking a sharp repricing from earlier expectations before the conflict began, providing an additional tailwind for the US Dollar.
Recent US inflation data also supports a cautious Fed stance, with focus now on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due on Friday.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades sideways between $5,000 and $5,250
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows XAU/USD consolidating between $5,000 and $5,250, reflecting a pause in the broader uptrend. The near-term bias remains mildly bullish as the price continues to hold above the rising 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which in turn remain well above the 100-day SMA, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 55, holding above its midline and suggesting that bullish momentum remains intact. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has slipped toward 12, pointing to waning trend strength.
On the upside, $5,200 remains the immediate resistance level, followed by Tuesday’s peak near $5,238. A decisive break above this zone could revive bullish momentum and open the door for a move toward $5,419, the March 2 high.
On the downside, initial support emerges near the 21-day SMA around $5,115, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,932. A sustained break below this area could trigger fresh selling pressure, exposing the 100-day SMA near $4,556 as the next key support level.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- NZD/USD declines for a third consecutive day, trading near 0.5860 on Thursday.
- Rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions support the US Dollar and revive inflation concerns.
- Markets await US PCE inflation data on Friday for further clues on monetary policy.
NZD/USD trades lower on Thursday, hovering around 0.5860 at the time of writing and down 0.90% on the day. The pair is posting a third consecutive daily decline, pressured by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD) and rising geopolitical tensions.
The US Dollar is gaining traction as markets reassess expectations for monetary policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.70, close to its highest level since November.
Surging Oil prices are fueling concerns about more persistent inflation, reducing expectations for near-term policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets no longer fully price in even a single 25-basis-point cut this year, providing additional support for the Greenback.
Geopolitical developments are also playing a key role in market sentiment. The war between the United States (US) and Iran entered its thirteenth day on Thursday, with attacks intensifying across the Middle East and little sign of de-escalation. Iran has reportedly targeted commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global Oil shipping route, raising fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy supply.
Meanwhile, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei indicated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could continue as a strategy to pressure Iran’s adversaries, further increasing uncertainty in energy markets. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, Oil prices remain highly volatile.
On the New Zealand side, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure as investors adopt a cautious stance amid heightened geopolitical risks. Rising energy prices are also fueling concerns about domestic inflation in New Zealand, with some analysts expecting price pressures to remain more persistent than previously anticipated, reinforcing expectations of a tighter stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
Investors now turn their attention to a heavy slate of US economic data scheduled for Friday, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These releases could provide fresh guidance on the trajectory of US monetary policy and influence short-term movements in NZD/USD.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.49% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.91% | 0.93% | 0.52% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | 0.09% | -0.22% | -0.13% | 0.50% | 0.53% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.49% | -0.09% | -0.32% | -0.22% | 0.41% | 0.44% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.18% | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.73% | 0.73% | 0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.13% | 0.22% | -0.08% | 0.64% | 0.66% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | -0.91% | -0.50% | -0.41% | -0.73% | -0.64% | 0.03% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | -0.93% | -0.53% | -0.44% | -0.73% | -0.66% | -0.03% | -0.43% | |
| CHF | -0.52% | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.32% | -0.22% | 0.38% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- Rising inflation driven by Oil prices complicates expectations for near-term BoE interest rate cut.
- GBP/USD drops toward 1.3350 as the US-Iran conflict keeps escalating.
- Reuters poll shows 86% of economists expect BoE to hold rates at 3.75% at March meeting.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3350 level, losing ground for the third consecutive day amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release around 400 million barrels of Oil from member countries’ strategic reserves to tame energy prices.
Markets were increasingly confident that the Bank of England (BoE) would cut interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, inflationary pressure from higher Oil prices have clouded the policy outlook, prompting expectations from policymakers to remain cautious and potentially delay rate cuts.
Additionally, according to a Reuters poll, the BoE is expected to hold the interest rate at 3.75% on March 19, with 43 of 50 economists, or 86%, expecting a hold (vs 35% for a hold in the February poll).
In the United States (US), macroeconomic data were better than anticipated. The US Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a $54.5 billion deficit in January, better than the $72.9 billion deficit in December. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 7 declined to 213K from a revised 214K in the previous week, beating expectations of 215K.
Short-term technical analysis
On the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3345. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3381 and the 100-period SMA at 1.3396, keeping the pair under layered dynamic resistance. The short-term SMA is edging down toward the longer one, reinforcing selling pressure after repeated failures to sustain above the 1.34 handle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 34 leans lower, which signals building bearish momentum but also warns that further downside extension would need fresh selling interest.
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD is mildly bearish as the pair holds below both the 20-period and 100-period SMAs, with the shorter average capped beneath the longer and price extending the rejection from the 1.34 region. The downward-sloping 100-period SMA around 1.3438 reinforces the broader corrective tone, while the 20-period SMA near 1.3412 tracks closer to price, limiting recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats toward the low 40s, indicating fading bullish momentum and keeping sellers in control on intraday rallies.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3370, where a horizontal barrier converges with recent price congestion, followed by 1.3409, which aligns with the descending short-term average cluster and the latest swing failure zone. On the downside, initial support stands at 1.3339, guarding the recent base of the range; a clear break below this area would open the way toward the mid-1.32s as the next bearish objective. A sustained move back above 1.3409 would be needed to negate the current downside bias and signal a more durable recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Japanese Yen remains under pressure as USD/JPY revisits intervention-watch levels near 159-160.
- Rising Oil prices and Middle East tensions weigh on Japan’s energy-dependent economy.
- Markets scale back Fed rate-cut expectations, boosting Treasury yields and the US Dollar.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with USD/JPY returning to levels that previously triggered official “rate checks” by Japanese authorities on January 23, reviving concerns about potential currency intervention.
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 159.18, extending gains for the third consecutive day.
The Yen’s sustained weakness reflects a combination of structural and near-term factors. A wide interest-rate differential between Japan and other major economies continues to weigh on the currency. At the same time, investors remain cautious about Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus fiscal stance, which could add to the country’s already elevated public debt and further undermine the Yen.
More recently, renewed demand for the US Dollar amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict has added to the pressure. The escalating tensions have rattled energy markets as Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely disrupted, a key shipping route for global crude exports.
The situation is particularly challenging for Japan, a major net importer of energy, with a large share of its Oil supply sourced from the Middle East. Higher energy prices could weigh on Japan’s economic growth and trade balance, adding further pressure on the Yen.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual pace of policy normalization is another key driver of the Yen’s underperformance. While other major central banks maintain relatively higher interest rates, the BoJ continues to tighten policy cautiously.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the central bank will conduct appropriate monetary policy while carefully assessing the impact of foreign-exchange moves on its forecasts.
Rising Oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, keeping expectations alive that the BoJ may continue tightening policy. However, the timing and pace remain uncertain, with markets currently expecting a rate hike in April, though persistent Middle East tensions could cloud the monetary policy outlook.
As global inflation fears mount, traders have also sharply trimmed expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in less than 25 basis points of easing by year-end, down from more than 50 basis points before the Middle East conflict erupted. The shift toward a more hawkish Fed outlook has lifted US Treasury yields, lending additional support to the US Dollar.
Looking ahead, attention now turns to a heavy slate of US economic data due on Friday, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preliminary Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annualized reading, Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Index.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.48% | 0.16% | 0.22% | 0.86% | 0.88% | 0.49% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | 0.10% | -0.24% | -0.15% | 0.49% | 0.50% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.48% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.25% | 0.38% | 0.40% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 0.31% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.15% | 0.25% | -0.08% | 0.64% | 0.65% | 0.24% | |
| AUD | -0.86% | -0.49% | -0.38% | -0.71% | -0.64% | 0.01% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | -0.88% | -0.50% | -0.40% | -0.71% | -0.65% | -0.01% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | -0.49% | -0.10% | -0.00% | -0.31% | -0.24% | 0.38% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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