Forex News
DBS Group Research anticipates China’s credit demand to stay weak in July, with new Yuan loans around RMB 10.8 billion and M2 growth at 8% year-on-year. Corporate and household medium- to long-term lending are likely to soften amid cautious borrowing and mortgage prepayments. Elevated precautionary savings and subdued property prices are expected to constrain investment and consumption.
Weak lending and elevated savings
"Credit demand remains weak, with new yuan loan is expected to stay at RMB10.8bn in July."
"Both corporate and household medium- to long-term lending likely softened amid cautious borrowing sentiment and continued mortgage prepayments."
"M2 growth is expected to remain at 8.0% yoy."
"Precautionary savings stayed elevated, while weak property prices continued to weigh on household wealth."
"The wide gap between M2 and M1 growth is expected to persist, reflecting subdued corporate investment and household consumption."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to a narrow intraday range, with flat momentum suggesting consolidation between 6.7450 and 6.7550. Their 1–3 week view still anticipates the Dollar edging lower toward 6.7300 while 6.7640 caps the upside, and over 1–3 months a sustained recovery requires a break above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar seen consolidating in tight band
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price movements, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone appears to be soft, and there is a chance for USD to test 6.7420. However, a continued decline below this level still appears unlikely. On the upside, resistance is at 6.7550.” USD subsequently traded in a quiet manner between 6.7457 and 6.7518, closing unchanged at 6.7483. Flat momentum indicators suggest range-trading today, most likely between 6.7450 and 6.7550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that “while USD edged lower last week, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum.” However, we were of the view that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300 as long as 6.7640 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Although USD has not been able to make further headway on the downside, we will continue to hold the same view for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP to be revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, driven by stronger manufacturing and services. With first-half growth above trend, the team sees a high chance the government will raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.0–5.0%, while still highlighting significant uncertainty and downside risks.
Growth beats trend, forecast upgrade in sight
"We expect Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP print to be revised up to 5.9% yoy and 1.3% qoq sa, from the advance estimates of 5.7% yoy and 1.1% qoq sa."
"The modestly higher growth figures were driven by a firmer manufacturing outturn than initially reported, alongside a possible upward revision to services growth amid stronger expansion in trade-related services, as indicated by the robust pickup in re-exports in June."
"With 1H26 growth tracking well above trend, we see a high likelihood that the government will upgrade its official 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.0-5.0% from 2.0-4.0%, even as it continues to flag high uncertainty and downside risks to the outlook."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
A US official said on Friday that there is progress in Oman-Iran talks and that a deal could be signed soon, according to Reuters. Once the deal is announced, this would restore commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would lift the blockade.
Meanwhile, another official told ABC News that a temporary route was discussed and that it would be limited to 60 days. The official warned that nothing is final until publicly announced, and another source said that the Trump administration wants total freedom of commercial navigation through the Strait, without Iranian tolls or any arrangement requiring vessels to obtain Iran's approval to transit Hormuz.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- GBP/JPY recovers 200-day SMA after sliding to 211.47.
- Upside remains capped by 100- and 50-day SMA resistance.
- Break below 211.91 exposes 211.00 and 209.58 support.
The British Pound retreats against the Japanese Yen, down about 0.24%, as the Yen is poised to end the week on a higher note. However, GBP/JPY is poised to finish the week with minimal gains, trading at 212.64.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY trades sideways, though slightly tilted to the downside, following an intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Worth noting that after soft US jobs data, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she agreed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that FX markets had been affected by moves rather than fundamentals.
This pushed GBP/JPY to the day's low of 211.47, slightly below the 200-day SMA of 211.91, but buyers reclaimed the latter and surpassed 212.00. After the rebound, the cross is about to end Friday’s session near the highs, but it will face key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 214.48, followed by the 50-day SMA at 215.42.
In the event of further losses, the first GBP/JPY support is 212.00. Below the next support is the 200-day SMA at 211.91, followed by 211.00. Beneath emerges the August 3 low of 209.58.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | -0.02% | 0.25% | -0.50% | -0.42% | 0.10% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.38% | -0.38% | -0.18% | 0.20% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.48% | -0.31% | 0.11% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.38% | 0.09% | -0.68% | -0.52% | -0.06% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.50% | 0.38% | 0.48% | 0.68% | 0.17% | 0.64% | 0.62% | |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.18% | 0.31% | 0.52% | -0.17% | 0.40% | 0.44% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.06% | -0.64% | -0.40% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.14% | 0.04% | -0.62% | -0.44% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike. The bank trims its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.5% and lowers Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations, while still projecting rate cuts in 2027 once inflation falls below 4%. BSP rhetoric is expected to stay hawkish.
BSP seen on hold but still hawkish
"We now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at its 27 August meeting, versus our previous forecast of a 25bps hike."
"We maintain our view of 25bps of rate cuts in Q2-2027 and Q3-2027 once inflation moderates to below 4% in Q2-2027."
"Consequently, we lower our end-2026 and end-2027 policy rate forecasts to 4.75% (5% prior) and 4.25% (4.5% prior), respectively."
"We lower our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% (4.0% prior) on softer-than-expected growth in H1."
"We also revise down our 2026 CPI inflation forecast to 5.9% (6.5% prior) on lower-than-expected inflation to date."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 region after sinking through Friday's session. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed the US economy shedding 23K jobs against forecasts of an 80K gain, with June revised down to 20K, and Average Hourly Earnings slowing to 3.2% on the year. Markets that had spent late July pricing a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) reversed course in the morning. This coming Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), projected at 3.4% YoY headline and 2.5% YoY on the core measure, now decides whether that repricing extends or stalls. Two Fed speakers follow on Thursday, with Hammack and Barkin both scheduled.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.35% | -0.33% | -0.58% | -0.56% | -0.51% | -0.46% | -0.60% | |
| EUR | 0.35% | 0.03% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.11% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.33% | -0.03% | -0.23% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | 0.58% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.12% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.56% | 0.19% | 0.22% | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.51% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.60% | 0.24% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The second full week of August will test whether the US Dollar sell-off that followed July's payrolls collapse has further to run as investors turn from the labor market to prices. The spotlight falls on Wednesday's CPI report, with Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey filling out the week.
On the other side of the pond, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, and the United Kingdom (UK) publishes second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. China opens proceedings on Sunday with inflation figures that will shape the tone for commodity-linked currencies.
The EUR/USD pair ends the week above the 1.1550 region, near two-month peaks. The Eurozone calendar is heavy on confirmations rather than surprises: German and Italian final inflation figures land on Wednesday, followed by Spanish and French readings later in the week, while Thursday brings Eurozone Industrial Production. The main event is Friday's preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected at 0.4% on the quarter and 1% on the year, alongside the first read on Employment Change. With the European Central Bank (ECB) content to wait, the pair remains a Dollar story.
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3500 as it closes the week, testing the resistance level for the second time this month. The UK finally has something of its own to trade on. Thursday delivers second-quarter GDP, forecast to slow to 0.4% from 0.6%, with monthly GDP seen contracting 0.1% and Manufacturing Production expected to fall. A soft set of numbers would complicate the Bank of England's position and give Cable its first domestic drag in weeks.
USD/JPY ends the week beneath the 158.00 barrier after the Yen jumped on the US NFP miss, with traders still alert to intervention a week on from the joint Tokyo-Washington operation. Japan's calendar is thin with June Current Account figures on Sunday the only notable release. That leaves the pair hostage to US data and to the question of whether authorities return.
AUD/USD trades below the 0.7100 level, its best in two months as the Aussie has gained strength. The RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday and is universally expected to hold at 4.35%, shifting attention to the accompanying statement and Governor Bullock's speech on Thursday. Chinese CPI and PPI on Sunday matter as much: consumer prices are seen slowing to 0.8% annually and factory-gate inflation to 3.8%, and softer readings would revive the growth concerns that have capped the Aussie all year.
Gold ends the week above $4,300 after its strongest run since January. The metal has been carried by collapsing rate-hike expectations, which makes Wednesday's CPI the single most important release on its calendar. A soft print would confirm the move. A firm one would force a reassessment, particularly with Strait of Hormuz risk keeping energy prices unsettled and the inflation question unresolved.
- US Treasury yields fall as Hormuz progress pressures Oil prices.
- Weak NFP report pushes traders to trim Fed hike bets.
- Ten-year yield drops as markets price lower inflation risks.
US Treasury yields drop across the curve on Friday amid growing speculation that the Iran-Oman deal is about to be sealed, which has so far pushed energy prices lower, while investors also digest a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.
Yields slide across the curve as Oil declines, payrolls disappoint and traders price out September Fed tightening
Recently, a US official said that there has been progress between Oman and Iran on Hormuz, and that once a deal is announced to restore shipping without impediments, the US Navy will lift the blockade of Iranian ports.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, extended its losses of nearly 1%, down to $77.50.
Meanwhile, money markets are indicating a lower likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates in September. The probability has decreased to 30% from 58% yesterday, with a 70% chance that the Fed will keep rates steady, based on Prime Terminal data.
The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.651%, down nearly three basis points, a signal that market participants have begun to price out a quick resolution to the US conflict, which could reduce the need for a rate hike by the Fed.
In July, US Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 23K jobs, falling short of the expected 80K increase. Revisions for May and June reduced the total by 103K jobs, lowering previous estimates. While this data backs the Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes, the Unemployment Rate decreased slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%.
The Greenback tumbled on the report, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar's strength against six other currencies, fell 0.42% to 99.54.
Next week, investors are eyeing the release of US inflation on the consumer and producer sides, followed by jobless claims data and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment.
US 10-year Treasury yield chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Commerzbank’s FX analysts, including Charlie Lay and Moses Lim, note that USD/IDR slipped slightly but stayed below the key 18,000 level as softer global Oil prices and stronger Indonesia Q2 GDP supported the Rupiah. They highlight that clearer Bank Indonesia leadership and confidence in BI’s independence should aid IDR over the coming weeks, though several structural and geopolitical risks may limit further appreciation.
Rupiah supported but upside constrained
"Q2 GDP rose more than expected by 5.3% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 5.1%) vs 5.6% in Q1. Growth was supported by resilient domestic demand, particularly stronger investment activity, while household consumption and government spending remained firm. In H1, the economy expanded 5.5%, slightly below the government's full-year target range of 5.6-6.0%."
"On inflation, July CPI surprised to the downside, rising 2.9% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 3.3% in June. This was the softest reading in three months and moved closer to the midpoint of BI's 1.5-3.5% target range."
"Separately, local media reported that President Prabowo is preparing to submit a shortlist of candidates to replace Perry Warjiyo as BI Governor. Acting Governor Destry Damayanti is widely viewed as the frontrunner. She is also regarded by markets as the candidate most likely to preserve policy continuity. Parliament is expected to review the nominations after returning from recess on 14 August. The approval process is expected to take one to two weeks."
"In FX, USD/IDR dipped 0.1% to 17,918 yesterday but remained below the key 18,000 psychological level. The pair closed at its lowest level since 23 July, supported by softer global crude oil prices and improved sentiment following the strong Q2 GDP print."
"Greater clarity regarding the next BI Governor appointment, alongside restored confidence in the BI's independence, should support IDR in the coming weeks. However, gains may be capped by several headwinds, including the risk of an MSCI downgrade to frontier market status, concerns that the fiscal deficit could breach the statutory 3% of GDP ceiling, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- XAG/USD jumps nearly 3%, reclaiming 50-day SMA and $63.00.
- RSI crosses above neutral, strengthening the near-term bullish bias.
- Break above $65.00 exposes $68.98 and $70.00 next.
Silver price surges nearly 3% as it clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.13, and reclaims the $63.00 figure as it struggles to surpass key resistance seen at $63.28, the July 6 high.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver trades sideways, but bulls are gaining traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI crossed above its 50-neutral level, poised to hit the overbought 70 level, rather sooner than later.
This suggests that the white metal could test higher prices, once it crosses the $65.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at $68.98, before testing the psychological $70.00 mark. Once cleared, the 200-day SMA becomes the next ceiling level at $71.22.
If XAG/USD retreats below the $63.00, a retracement towards the 50-day SMA is on the cards. On further weakness, Silver could fall towards the $60.00 mark, followed by the August 3 low of $56.57.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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