Forex News
DBS economist Chua Han Teng highlights that Singapore’s 1Q26 GDP growth was resilient, with real GDP up 4.6% year-on-year, but warns that the Iran war shock and global slowdown pose downside risks. DBS maintains its 2026 real GDP growth forecast at 2.8%, broadly aligned with MAS expectations for the output gap to average around zero as growth slows through 2026.
Firm start but outlook softens
"Singapore’s economy entered 2026 on a firm footing, reflected in resilient real GDP growth of 4.6% yoy and -0.3% qoq sa in 1Q26 (but slower than 5.7% yoy and 1.3% qoq sa in 4Q25), according to MTI’s advance estimates."
"The MAS’s decision also came amid still-resilient near-term economic growth dynamics, but with significant downside uncertainties in the coming quarters."
"We expect this resilience to be tested as the year progresses, with the highly open economy facing renewed geopolitical shocks."
"We maintain our 2026 real GDP growth forecast at 2.8%, but see downside external risks."
"Overall, our Singapore growth expectations appear aligned with the MAS’s view for GDP growth to slow over the course of 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The RBNZ's Breman delivered scheduled speeches this week, with markets watching for signals on the rate outlook.
- US core PPI rose just 0.1% MoM in March, well below the 0.6% consensus, softening the US Dollar across the board.
NZD/USD rose over 0.55% on Tuesday, printing a session high near 0.5920 before pulling back to settle around 0.5900. The pair has rallied sharply from the early-April lows close to 0.5790, but the 0.5900 area is proving to be a stubborn ceiling, with Tuesday's candle showing a clear rejection from the highs. The intraday Stochastic Oscillator has dipped back into the oversold zone after the late-session pullback, pointing to fading short-term momentum.
The New Zealand Dollar found broad support from the softer US data backdrop. The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.5% MoM, sharply below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI printed just 0.1% against expectations for 0.6%. The flat services reading was the most notable detail for the Federal Reserve (Fed), as it strips out the direct energy and tariff-related noise.
President Trump's suggestion that fresh US-Iran talks could begin within days also weighed on the US Dollar, reducing safe-haven demand. For the New Zealand Dollar, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Breman has been speaking this week, though no major policy shifts were signaled. Thursday is the more critical session for the Kiwi, with China's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release and Australian employment data both capable of driving cross-Tasman sentiment.
NZD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5900. The pair holds modestly above the daily open at 0.5869, keeping a slight intraday bullish bias as buyers defend higher ground after earlier dips. The Stochastic RSI has rebounded from deeply oversold territory toward the low-30s, which suggests that downside momentum is fading and that price may continue to consolidate with a mild topside inclination while 0.5869 underpins the structure.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the daily open near 0.5869, and a sustained break below this level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper pullback. As long as 0.5869 holds on closing basis, intraday dips are likely to attract buying interest, with the lack of nearby mapped resistance implying that any recovery could extend gradually, though the absence of active moving averages on this timeframe keeps topside reference levels less defined.
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5900, holding a modest bullish bias as spot remains above both the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5852 and the 50-day EMA at 0.5847. The configuration, with price trading over these key averages and the shorter EMA sitting just below the longer one, suggests the pair is trying to build a base after its recent rebound, while the Stochastic RSI hovering near 70 hints at waning upside room in the very near term rather than outright overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 200-day EMA at 0.5852, with the nearby 50-day EMA at 0.5847 reinforcing this demand zone on dips. As long as NZD/USD holds above this moving-average floor on a daily closing basis, buyers are likely to retain control, while any failure below it would weaken the constructive tone and expose a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- NZD/USD climbs near 0.5900 as risk appetite improves and USD weakens.
- Softer US PPI and falling yields pressure on the greenback.
- RBNZ outlook and global geopolitics keep the Kiwi supported in the short term.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias near the 0.5900 level on Wednesday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains strength amid improving global risk sentiment and a weaker US Dollar (USD).
On the US side, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data was softer than expected, reinforcing the perception of easing inflation pressures. This has led to a decline in US yields and a weakening of the Greenback.
Additionally, the pair is influenced by external factors, such as China's latest trade data, which did not provide significant upward momentum during Asian trading. As a result, early gains were limited before a recovery in the European session.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5900. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias while it consolidates above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5860 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5784, keeping the short- and medium-term trends supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69.2 hovers just below overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum remains firm but vulnerable to bouts of consolidation or shallow pullbacks.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at 0.5907, followed by 0.5911 and 0.5920, with a more distant barrier at 0.5965. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5899, ahead of the dynamic floor provided by the 20-period SMA at 0.5860, while the 100-period SMA at 0.5784 marks a deeper, more strategic support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Westpac Consumer Confidence plunged 12.5% in April, the sharpest drop since the onset of the Iran conflict.
- US PPI missed expectations by a wide margin, with the services component flat, keeping the Fed's rate path in focus.
- Thursday's Australian employment report and China's Q1 GDP are the next key catalysts for the pair.
AUD/USD extended its bullish push on Tuesday, gaining around 0.38%, but gave back some top-end gains after touching a session high close to 0.7150. Price settled near 0.7120 in a session that saw strong early buying give way to a late pullback, with the intraday chart printing a sharp rejection from the 0.7150 area. The pair has rallied firmly from the early-April lows about 0.6990, but the failure to hold above 0.7150 suggests sellers are defending that level.
On the Australian Dollar side, Westpac Consumer Confidence collapsed 12.5% in April, reflecting growing unease over the global energy shock and its pass-through to domestic costs. Chinese trade data offered a mixed picture: imports surged 27.8% YoY in March, well above the 11.1% consensus, suggesting robust domestic demand, but exports disappointed at 2.5% against an 8.3% forecast. Thursday's Australian employment report (consensus 20K) and China's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading will be the key test for the Australian Dollar this week.
On the US Dollar side, the Producer Price Index (PPI) printed 0.5% MoM in March, sharply below the 1.2% consensus, while the core reading rose just 0.1%. The miss took some pressure off the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate outlook, though the 4.0% YoY headline, the highest since February 2023, still reflects the energy price shock from the Iran conflict. President Trump's hint that US-Iran peace talks could resume within days added further headwinds for the US Dollar.
AUD/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7126, holding modestly above the daily open at 0.7093, which suggests a mildly constructive intraday tone despite the absence of nearby moving average references. The Stochastic RSI at 25.35 is recovering from oversold territory, hinting that recent downside pressure may be fading as price consolidates above the opening pivot.
On the downside, initial support is located at the day’s open around 0.7093, where buyers may attempt to defend the short-term up-bias. With no clearly defined resistance levels from moving averages or Fibonacci retracements in the current dataset, upside progress would likely be driven by momentum normalization, and a sustained break back below 0.7093 would be needed to undermine the nascent positive tone.
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7126. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds well above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at 0.6981 and 0.6761, respectively, reinforcing a constructive medium-term structure. However, the Stochastic RSI at 81.10 sits in overbought territory, hinting that while upside momentum is strong, the risk of a corrective pause or consolidation is rising after the latest advance.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA around 0.6981, where a pullback could attract dip-buying interest in line with the prevailing uptrend, ahead of the more substantial floor at the 200-day EMA near 0.6761. As long as the pair holds above these moving averages, any corrective moves are likely to be viewed as retracements within the broader bullish phase rather than a trend reversal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- The US naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect Monday, but fresh peace talk signals weighed on the Dollar.
- Tuesday's PPI came in well below expectations, with core producer prices rising just 0.1% MoM against a 0.6% consensus.
- The pair remains caught in a messy range between 160.00 and 158.00, with neither side able to force a decisive break.
USD/JPY fell around 0.4% on Tuesday, slipping back below the 159.00 handle to settle close to 158.85. The pair remains trapped in a choppy two-yen band between 160.00 and 158.00, with intraday price action showing a sharp rejection from Tuesday's session high near 159.30 before sellers pushed back from the 158.60 area. Small-bodied candles and overlapping price bars point to a market that is struggling to commit in either direction.
The US Dollar came under pressure on two fronts on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% MoM in March, well below the 1.2% consensus, while core PPI climbed just 0.1% against expectations for 0.6%. Gasoline prices surged 15.7% and accounted for nearly half of the headline gain, but the services component was flat, a reading the Federal Reserve (Fed) watches closely. Separately, President Trump hinted that peace talks with Iran could resume within two days, softening safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
On the Japanese Yen side, safe-haven inflows have been supporting the currency amid the broader Middle East uncertainty, with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate trajectory playing a secondary role while geopolitics dominate. Thursday's US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey are the next scheduled data points to watch for the US Dollar.
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.83. The pair holds below the day’s open at 159.21, keeping the very near-term tone bearish as intraday rallies struggle to reclaim that initial level. The Stochastic RSI has eased back toward mid-range, with the latest reading around 59, suggesting fading upside momentum after earlier overbought conditions on this short-term timeframe.
On the topside, the day’s open at 159.21 is the first notable resistance, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open room for a deeper recovery. On the downside, the lack of nearby mapped support leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage toward prior session lows and psychological round figures, with sellers likely to retain control while price holds beneath 159.21.
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 158.84, holding a bullish near‑term bias as spot remains comfortably above both the 50‑day and 200‑day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at 158.02 and 154.56 respectively. The stacked configuration of these EMAs, with the shorter average trending above the longer one, suggests the broader uptrend is intact, although the Stochastic RSI slipping toward the lower band around 28 hints at fading upside momentum and the risk of a corrective pause within that trend.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50‑day EMA near 158.02, where a break would expose the more solid bullish floor at the 200‑day EMA around 154.56. As long as price holds above these moving averages, pullbacks are likely to be treated as dips within the prevailing uptrend, while a daily close below the 50‑day EMA would signal mounting pressure toward a deeper retracement despite the still‑constructive longer‑term backdrop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD climbs for a seventh day as Dollar weakness persists.
- Hopes for US-Iran talks and lower oil prices support the Euro.
- Traders now await Fed remarks, Beige Book and Eurozone data.
The EUR/USD rallies for the seventh straight session as the Greenback falls to a six-week low amid hopes of US-Iran talks in the week ahead, while US data remains in the back seat despite a jump in inflation. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1790, up 0.30%.
US-Iran war de-escalation underpins the Euro to 1.18
Market mood has improved as Trump hinted that talks could resume during the week, as revealed by the New York Post, and added that he doesn’t like the idea of a suspension of 20 years to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Energy prices extended their losses, a relief for countries in the Eurozone, given their overall net import status for crude and natural gas.
Would the Fed hold rates, as PPI reaches 4%?
Leaving aside geopolitical jitters on the macroeconomic front, producer prices in the US jumped to the 4% threshold, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
US PPI in March rose 4% YoY, falling short of the 4.6% forecast, up from February’s 3.4%. Core PPI for the same period steadied at 3.8% YoY, unchanged from the previous month. At the same time, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average rose to 39,250 from 26,000, further supporting the idea that the labor market remains resilient.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee stated that rate cuts would be on the table until 2027 if high oil prices from the Iran war slow the progress of inflation toward the 2% target. Meanwhile, Governor Miran expects inflation to reach the target within a year and believes that there’s no reason for higher oil prices.
Due to inflation concerns, investors are reducing bets on the Fed easing policy, and money markets now expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged this year, according to Prime Market Terminal (PMT).
ECB’s policy suits the evolving Iran conflict
On the other side of the Atlantic, ECB President Lagarde remarked that the ECB is well placed to handle developments related to Iran. She emphasized that it’s premature to disregard the shock and believes it’s too early to reach such a conclusion.
On Wednesday, the US economic schedule will feature the Fed’s Beige Book and speeches by policymakers. In the Eurozone, investors will digest February’s Industrial Production data and ECB members crossing the wires.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1793, holding a bullish near-term bias as spot extends above the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.1673 and remains supported by the broader rising trend line from 1.1411. The break away from the prior descending resistance line off 1.1929 coincides with a firming Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.8, which suggests buyers retain control, though conditions are edging toward overbought territory.
On the topside, the next meaningful hurdle is the prior descending resistance line projected from the 1.1929 area, which caps the immediate upside. On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent breakout region near the current price zone, followed by the grouped 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs around 1.1673, while the broader bullish structure would remain intact as long as the rising trend-line support from 1.1411 holds.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.02% | -1.29% | -0.43% | -0.70% | -1.88% | -1.72% | -1.22% | |
| EUR | 1.02% | -0.27% | 0.51% | 0.33% | -0.83% | -0.70% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | 1.29% | 0.27% | 0.73% | 0.62% | -0.56% | -0.42% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | -0.51% | -0.73% | -0.21% | -1.33% | -1.16% | -0.77% | |
| CAD | 0.70% | -0.33% | -0.62% | 0.21% | -1.03% | -0.94% | -0.52% | |
| AUD | 1.88% | 0.83% | 0.56% | 1.33% | 1.03% | 0.15% | 0.59% | |
| NZD | 1.72% | 0.70% | 0.42% | 1.16% | 0.94% | -0.15% | 0.52% | |
| CHF | 1.22% | 0.18% | -0.08% | 0.77% | 0.52% | -0.59% | -0.52% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that China’s March trade data were slightly weaker than expected, with exports underperforming forecasts and imports surging, narrowing the trade surplus. He estimates the current account surplus likely eased from Q4’s multi‑year high. Despite this, CNY has strengthened versus the Dollar, with USD/CNY trading below 6.82, its lowest level in over three years.
Yuan firms even as surplus eases
"Based on the trade data, it can be estimated that China’s current account surplus in the first quarter, relative to GDP, likely came in slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year, when it reached a multi-year high of 4.9%."
"Imports, on the other hand, rose by 27.8% year-over-year, a much stronger increase than anticipated. As a result, the trade surplus declined, though at $51.1 billion, it remains very high."
"Since the start of the month, the CNY has thus appreciated by over one percent against the USD, which is surprising given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding developments in the Gulf region."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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