Forex News
- Gold price loses ground to around $4,535 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Iran said no nuclear commitments were made as talks with the US continue.
- Hawkish signals from the Fed could weigh on the Gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,535, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal loses ground amid the lack of progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations. Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments as the tensions in the region are ongoing.
Reuters reported on Sunday that Iranian officials said that talks with the US are continuing, but no nuclear commitments have been made. Meanwhile, Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Tehran will not accept any deal with Washington unless it ensures “the rights of the Iranian people are secured.”
As the diplomatic exchanges continued, Israel expanded its ground attack in Lebanon, shattering a brittle truce with its northern neighbor.
Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continued on Friday to signal the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the future if the war in the Middle East leads to a persistent increase in already-high inflation. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Traders await the US May employment data on Friday for fresh impetus. This report could offer some hints as to whether the US economy is strong enough to push the Fed to lift interest rates by next year.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.0 in May, compared to 50.3 in the previous reading. The reading came in line with the market consensus of 50.0 in the reported month.
The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1 in May versus April’s 49.4 figure. The market forecast was for a 49.5 print.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7180, down 0.07% on the day.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that talks and message exchanges with the United States (US) were onongoing buttressed that no assessment of negotiations could be made until a clear outcome was reached, Reuters reported on Sunday.
Separately, Iran's parliamentary national security committee spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei stated that the country has made no nuclear commitments to Washington. Rezaei warned that the US must choose between Iranian diplomats or Iranian missiles, per state media reports.
Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, noted that Tehran will not accept any deal with Washington unless it ensures “the rights of the Iranian people are secured.”
As the diplomatic exchanges continued, Israel expanded its ground attack in Lebanon, shattering a brittle truce with its northern neighbor.
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward the 98.90 region on Friday as improving market sentiment linked to developments in the Middle East reduces demand for safe-haven assets. Although the latest United States (US) Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday held steady at 3.3% YoY in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may keep interest rates elevated for longer, investors focused on reports that the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin nuclear negotiations.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.18% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.35% | -0.94% | -0.47% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.22% | -0.78% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.19% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.19% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.96% | -0.49% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.05% | -0.41% | -0.98% | -0.53% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.22% | 0.17% | 0.36% | 0.41% | -0.57% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.94% | 0.78% | 0.73% | 0.96% | 0.98% | 0.57% | 0.46% | |
| CHF | 0.47% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.49% | 0.53% | 0.12% | -0.46% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD advances toward the 1.1670 area as broad US Dollar (USD) weakness supports the shared currency.
GBP/USD climbs toward the 1.3470 region, benefiting from softer demand for the Greenback. Sterling remains supported despite lingering concerns surrounding the United Kingdom's (UK) fiscal outlook and slowing economic growth.
USD/JPY trades near the 159.30 zone as the weaker US offsets support from elevated US yields. The Japanese Yen remains pressured after Tokyo Core CPI slowed to 1.4% YoY in May, while Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that energy shocks could become more persistent if they begin influencing wages and inflation expectations.
AUD/USD rises toward the 0.7190 region as improving sentiment surrounding US-Iran negotiations boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near $88.00 per barrel as hopes for a ceasefire extension and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ease concerns over supply disruptions.
Gold surges near the $4,550 region as investors balance improving risk appetite against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated global inflation pressures.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Friday, May 29:
- BoE's Mann
Sunday, May 31:
- UK BoE's Greene
- Fed's Waller
- Fed's Powell
Tuesday, June 2:
- ECB's Vujčić
- BoE Governor Bailey
- ECB's Sleijpen
- BoE's Greene
Wednesday, June 3:
- BoJ Governor Ueda
- ECB's Elderson
- Fed's Barr
- ECB's Cipollone
- BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings
- Fed Beige Book
Thursday, June 4:
- ECB President Lagarde
- BoE Governor Bailey
Friday, June 5:
- BoE's Dhingra
- BoE Governor Bailey
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape
Friday, May 29:
- China Manufacturing PMI
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI
Sunday, May 31:
- AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Monday, June 1:
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- CH Retail Sales
- CH GDP
- Germany Manufacturing PMI
- France Manufacturing PMI
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate
- CA Manufacturing PMI
- US Manufacturing PMI
- AU Building Permits
Tuesday, June 2:
- Eurozone CPI
- US JOLTS Job Openings
- NZ Building Permits
- AU AiG Industry Index
- AU PMI
- AU Q1 GDP
- China Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, June 3:
- Spain Services PMI
- Germany PMI
- Eurozone PMI
- Eurozone PPI
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US PMI
- US Factory Orders
- AU Trade Balance
Thursday, June 4:
- CH CPI
- Eurozone Retail Sales
- US Challenger Job Cuts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Nonfarm Productivity
- US Unit Labor Costs
- JP Labor Cash Earnings
Friday, June 5:
- Eurozone GDP
- Eurozone Employment Change
- CA Employment Report
- CA Average Hourly Wages
- CA Unemployment Rate
- US Nonfarm Payrolls
- US Unemployment Rate
- US Average Hourly Earnings
- US Labor Force Participation Rate
- CA Ivey PMI
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Forex Market News
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