Forex News

• Crude collapses in one of the largest intraday swings on record as de-escalation hopes meet Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.
• Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days after reporting "productive" conversations with Tehran, though Iran denied any talks were taking place.
• The IEA's record 400-million-barrel coordinated reserve release continues to flow, but analysts warn the measures cannot fully offset the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil fell roughly 9% on Monday, falling back below $100/barrel and testing $90.00 after tracing one of the widest intraday ranges in modern oil market history. Prices spiked above $101.00 in early trading as Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran expired, before reversing violently to a session low around $84.00 and spending the rest of the day clawing back toward $90.00. The roughly $17 high-to-low range dwarfs recent sessions, and the recovery from the lows has stalled in a choppy intraday band.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive conversations" about a "complete and total resolution" of hostilities, and instructed the Pentagon to postpone all military strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. The announcement reversed his 48-hour ultimatum issued Saturday, in which he threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power grid if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened.

Tehran denied any talks were underway, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated that it would target energy and desalination infrastructure across the region in the event of an attack on Iranian power plants. The contradiction between Trump's de-escalation tone and Iran's denial kept markets on edge through the afternoon.

On the supply side, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) record 400-million-barrel coordinated reserve release, announced on March 11, is beginning to flow, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over an estimated 120-day delivery window. Goldman Sachs raised its WTI forecast to $98 for March and $105 for April, noting that Strait of Hormuz flows remain at roughly 5% of normal volume. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Monday it is too early to assess the inflation impact of the energy price shock and that he still believes rate cuts are warranted to support the labour market.

WTI 5-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $89.29. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price holds well below the descending 200-period exponential moving average near $93.40, keeping the intraday trend under pressure despite intermittent bounces. The latest pullback from the $90.50 area coincides with a Stochastic RSI retreat from overbought conditions above 90 toward 30, indicating fading upside momentum and reinforcing the risk of further downside while below the long-term intraday average.

Initial support emerges at $88.75, the most recent reaction low, with a break exposing $86.50 ahead of the deeper $85.70 area. On the topside, immediate resistance sits at $90.00, followed by $90.50, where earlier rallies stalled, with a stronger barrier at $91.00 that would need to give way to challenge the 200-period EMA cluster higher up. As long as price trades beneath $90.50, rallies are likely to meet supply, while a sustained move above this band would ease the current bearish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• The EUR/JPY trades neutral near 184.00, with the Japanese Yen gaining modest strength despite sustained risk appetite.
• President Trump signals potential de-escalation with Iran, supporting sentiment but limiting safe-haven flows.
• A relatively hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan and rising intervention concerns cap further upside in Yen crosses.

The EUR/JPY cross trades in a tight range around the 184.00 price region, even retracing some of its intraday gains, though risk appetite remains high. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining ground against the Euro (EUR).

President Donald Trump announced a postponement of the attack on Iran. He later commented on the Iran war, claiming that he hopes to meet soon because they “have major points of agreement,” and that if talks carry through, it will end the conflict.

Crossing the pond, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a relatively hawkish stance after Governor Kazuo Ueda recently emphasized that additional rate hikes may be possible if inflation develops as anticipated.

On the European side, the flash Consumer Confidence for March was released worse than expected at -16.3, down from -12.2 last month, indicating that European confidence is being affected and could be a problem if it continues to decline.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 183.92. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair holds above the rising 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 183.37 and the flatter 100-period SMA around 183.29, keeping price supported on shallow pullbacks. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is advancing to 58, above its midline and away from overbought territory, indicating steady buying pressure rather than exhaustion.

Immediate support sits at 183.66, backed by the nearby 20-period SMA, with a deeper floor at 183.20 where earlier demand emerged. On the upside, initial resistance is aligned at 184.00, with a break exposing the recent cap near 184.23; a sustained move above this area would open the way for a continuation of the prevailing upswing toward higher highs on the 4-hour horizon.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

HSBC Asset Management describes China’s stock market as notably resilient despite rising geopolitical risks and energy vulnerability. The new Five-Year Plan shifts focus toward quality growth, energy security, tech innovation and national security, with a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%. Policy support, tech focus and relatively low valuations underpin a constructive stance on Chinese equities and broader China exposure.

Five-Year Plan underpins China stocks

"China’s stock market has been remarkably resilient in the face of rising geopolitical risks. Despite being a major energy importer – and vulnerable to commodity price shocks – China’s strategic reserves, diversified sourcing and import routes, and expanded energy mix, are providing energy resilience."

"No surprise then that its new Five-Year Plan (FYP) prioritises energy security, the green transition, and energy infrastructure."

"Policymakers ratified the FYP at the recent “Two Sessions” meetings and set a new 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% (from “around 5%” last year). That change is a nod to the competing demand of supporting stable economic expansion while minimising bottlenecks and risks."

"The new FYP marks a shift in policy focus from rapid growth to quality growth, economic resilience, and national security."

"Overall, China’s market resilience, policy support, tech focus, and relatively low valuations, continue to support a positive view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• Gold rebounds on Monday, partly erasing earlier losses that led prices to hit year-to-date lows after a sharp sell-off of nearly 8%.
• Gold's rebound came as Trump announced he is postponing planned strikes on Iran's energy facilities after engaging in "productive" conversations with Tehran.
• Technically, XAU/USD remains bearish even as the RSI shows oversold conditions.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds from year-to-date lows on Monday as bargain hunting emerges after a steep sell-off, with the metal finding support after news that US President Donald Trump postponed planned strikes against Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,375, after briefly sliding below $4,100 during the Asian session, its lowest level since November 2025, before rebounding to an intraday high of $4,536.

Trump said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, subject to the outcome of the ongoing discussions, Reuters reported. The news pushed Crude Oil prices sharply lower, easing inflation concerns and triggering a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields.

However,  Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources, said there are no direct communications with the US, nor through intermediaries. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions to end the war remain unchanged, adding that Tehran has not responded to messages relayed by other countries regarding US requests for talks, according to IRNA.

This comes after Trump warned over the weekend that Iran’s power infrastructure could be targeted if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within forty-eight hours. In response, Iran threatened retaliation, warning it could target all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and Israel.

The move marks a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions and has lifted market sentiment, although uncertainty around the conflict remains high and could cap further upside in the metal unless there is a clear de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain elevated despite the intraday pullback, keeping inflation concerns and their economic impact in focus.

As a result, markets are increasingly anticipating that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer, or even consider rate hikes if the war drags on and inflation remains persistent.

The repricing of rate expectations was further supported by last week’s central bank meetings, where policymakers broadly opted to hold rates while emphasizing upside inflation risks and uncertainty tied to the evolving geopolitical backdrop.

Markets have priced out Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts for this year, while in other major economies, expectations for further tightening have strengthened. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Looking ahead, markets will keep a close eye on geopolitical developments for direction. With little US economic data scheduled on Monday, Gold will likely be driven by broader market sentiment and any subsequent war-related announcements.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD rebounds from 200-day SMA, downside risks remain

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has attracted buying interest after bouncing off the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,095, helping preserve the broader uptrend. However, the near-term bias remains slightly bearish as the metal continues to trade below the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, indicating lingering selling pressure.

Momentum indicators reflect this mixed outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 26, suggesting oversold conditions that could support a short-term rebound, while the Average True Range (ATR) remains elevated, pointing to heightened volatility.

On the upside, the $4,500 level acts as immediate resistance, followed by the 100-day SMA around $4,600. A sustained break above this zone could shift focus toward the 50-day SMA near $4,970 and the key psychological $5,000 mark. On the downside, a sustained break below the 200-day SMA may trigger a deeper pullback toward $4,000.

• Silver rebounds after hitting year-to-date lows as the US Dollar and yields retreat.
• Geopolitical headlines drive volatility, with mixed signals from the US and Iran.
• Bearish momentum persists despite the intraday recovery.

Silver (XAG/USD) stages a rebound on Monday after briefly slipping to year-to-date lows earlier in the Asian trading session, as traders digest conflicting headlines surrounding geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Israel war with Iran. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades near $68.00, recovering from an intraday low around $61.01, its weakest level since December 2025.

The white metal trimmed earlier losses as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields pulled back following US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Trump said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, subject to the outcome of ongoing discussions.

However, gains remain limited after Iranian officials downplayed the prospect of negotiations. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said no talks have been held with the United States. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz and conditions to end the war remain unchanged, adding that Tehran has not responded to messages relayed by other countries regarding US requests for talks, according to IRNA.

In the daily chart, the near-term bias remains bearish as price trades below the 50-day SMA at $86.20 and the 100-day SMA around $73.80. However, the 200-day SMA near $57.60 continues to slope higher, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact for now.

Momentum indicators reinforce the downside outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 34, holding below the 50 mark and pointing to sustained bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line and in negative territory, with a modestly negative histogram, suggesting sellers continue to dominate in the short term.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $73.80, followed by the $78.00–$80.00 zone, which previously acted as a key breakdown area. A sustained move above the 50-day SMA at $86.20 would be needed to shift the current bearish structure.

On the downside, immediate support lies at Monday’s low near $61.01, followed by the 200-day SMA around $57.60. A break below this level could expose deeper losses toward the $50.00 psychological mark.

• Stocks rallied broadly after President Trump announced a five-day halt to strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• Oil prices plunged with Brent and WTI both falling more than 7% on de-escalation hopes.
• Cyclical sectors led gains with industrials, banks, and airlines posting the strongest advances.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surges more than 600 points on Monday, climbing roughly 1.5% to recapture the 46,000 handle as investors bet that the worst of the Iran crisis may be nearing an end. The S&P 500 rose around 1.4%, clawing back toward 6,600, while the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 1.6%. All three indices had been threatening correction territory heading into the session, with the Dow and Nasdaq each sitting around 9.8% off their record highs through Friday.

Trump-Iran de-escalation triggers broad risk rally

The entire American market session was defined by a single Truth Social post: President Trump announced that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive conversations" over the weekend and that he had instructed what he called the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. Prior to the post, futures had been pointing to another bruising session with Oil continuing to surge and equities under pressure.

Dow futures briefly jumped more than 1K points in the immediate aftermath. The rally cooled somewhat after Iranian state media denied that any direct talks had taken place between Washington and Tehran, pulling the major indices off their session highs. Still, the general read was that the administration's willingness to pause escalation was itself a meaningful signal, even if a comprehensive deal remains a long way off.

Oil craters on ceasefire hopes

The crude complex saw its most dramatic single-session reversal in weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures tumbled roughly 8% to settle around $91 a barrel after hovering near $100 earlier in the day. International benchmark Brent plunged more than 7% to around $101, having touched above $114 during the Asian session before Trump's post. Even with Monday's selloff, both benchmarks remain more than a third above their pre-war levels from late February.

Goldman Sachs raised its near-term Oil price forecasts earlier in the day, expecting Brent to average above $100 through April, citing the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles around 20% of global seaborne Oil trade. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also signalled readiness for another emergency release from strategic stockpiles if needed.

Cyclical stocks lead the rebound

It was a textbook risk-on day. Caterpillar (CAT) led the Dow with a gain of roughly 4%, followed by 3M (MMM) and Home Depot (HD), each up more than 3%. Banks caught a bid as Treasury yields pulled back, with JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) both climbing. Airline stocks were among the session's biggest beneficiaries of the Oil selloff, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) rallying sharply. In the mega-cap tech space, Tesla (TSLA) gained around 3%, while Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (AAPL) each rose more than 2%, getting some relief after mixed guidance on artificial intelligence demand from chipmakers weighed on the group last week.

Rate cut expectations continue to evaporate

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its second consecutive hold after three 25-basis-point cuts closed out 2025. The updated dot plot now projects just one cut for the remainder of 2026, down from previous forecasts, and the CME FedWatch Tool shows how quickly the market has repriced. The probability of rates remaining unchanged through June has surged to 89% from under 38% just a month ago, and there is now a slim chance of a rate hike for the first time.

For the full year, markets see it as more likely than not that the Fed does not cut at all. Gold, typically a beneficiary of geopolitical stress, has instead been crushed by the shift in rate expectations, falling below $4,300 on Monday to its lowest level of 2026 as higher-for-longer rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal.

Dow Jones five-minute chart

• GBP/USD climbs above 1.3450 as Trump hints productive Iran talks could end hostilities.
• DXY falls 0.54% to 98.97 while weaker Oil prices sap Dollar support.
• Markets price BoE tightening risk as Fed officials stay cautious on inflation outlook.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) appreciates sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after US President Donald Trump postponed further military action against Iran, adding that talks between the two countries were productive and could end hostilities in the Middle East. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3459, up by more than 0.90%.

Sterling rallies nearly 1% as easing war fears hit Oil prices and drag the Greenback lower

The Greenback is on the back foot as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck's value against six other currencies, is down 0.54% to 98.97, a tailwind for Sterling.

Trump posted on the Truth Social network that the US and Iran had "very good and productive" talks. Nevertheless, Iran's media reported that there was no direct or indirect contact between Washington and Tehran.

Given the backdrop, the financial markets cheered Trump's post, with Wall Street opening in the green, while Oil prices tumbled, dragging the Greenback lower.

Nevertheless, International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol said that the current crisis in the Middle East has had a worse impact than the other two Oil shocks of the 1970s combined and the effects on gas markets from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Meanwhile, major central banks, which were in an easing cycle, kept interest rates steady last week, fueling uncertainty about the impact of the Middle East war.

Money markets have priced in a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) at the June 18 meeting, with odds standing at 52%. Regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed), the swaps market is not expecting a rate cut; it is pricing 5 basis points of tightening for the June 17 reunion.

Fed officials are concerned about energy prices

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he remains optimistic that rates could move lower by the end of 2026, but he needs "proof on inflation." He added that inflation now seems a greater risk, noting that he's trying to understand how long it will take for high Oil prices to impact the economy.

Recently, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Fed shouldn't make policy based on short-term headlines, and added that the balance of risks had worsened on both sides.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3381. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price holds below the confluence of the triple simple moving averages clustered around 1.3500, while the recent break under the long-running ascending support line from 1.3035 leaves the pair trading within the grip of the descending resistance line from 1.3869. The move away from that broken rising trend line signals fading upside momentum, and repeated failures along the downward-sloping resistance line keep rallies contained, reinforcing pressure toward recent lows.

Initial resistance stands near 1.3430, aligning with last week’s swing high, followed by the 1.3500/1.3510 zone where the grouped moving averages cap the upside and meet the descending trend line. A break above that area would be needed to ease the bearish tone and expose 1.3600 next. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 1.3340, ahead of 1.3220, which marks the latest significant trough and a key level for preserving the broader range. A decisive drop below 1.3220 would confirm renewed downside extension toward the 1.3100 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

• NZD/USD edges higher as the US Dollar weakens following geopolitical developments.
• The postponement of US strikes on Iran temporarily improves market sentiment.
• Monetary policy expectations in New Zealand remain a key driver for the currency.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5850 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.24% on the day, benefiting from a broader pullback in the US Dollar (USD) amid a relative easing of geopolitical tensions.

The move follows an announcement by US President Donald Trump, who decided to postpone potential military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing “constructive” discussions. This development supports risk appetite and weighs on the US Dollar, which initially declined sharply before stabilizing, with the US Dollar Index hovering near the 99.40 area.

However, the overall environment remains uncertain. Iranian sources, cited by Fars News Agency, deny any direct communication with Washington, highlighting the lack of clarity surrounding a potential agreement. These conflicting signals continue to fuel market volatility, particularly for risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

Investors are also closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy flows. Donald Trump indicated that a reopening could occur quickly if a deal is reached, a scenario that could significantly impact Oil prices and reshape global inflation expectations.

On the domestic front, the New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure from mixed fundamentals. Fitch Ratings recently revised New Zealand’s sovereign outlook to negative, pointing to risks linked to energy dependence amid the Middle East war. This comes after a disappointing fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release.

Nevertheless, expectations of monetary tightening are providing some support to the currency. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a rate hike as early as May by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), according to Reuters, which could help limit downside risks for the NZD in the near term.

BNP Paribas projects Eurozone growth at 1.6% in 2026, supported by German fiscal measures, higher military and AI-related investment, and a resilient labour market. Inflation is expected to stay below 2% in 2026 before gradually accelerating in 2027. This would prompt the ECB to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.5% in the second half of 2027.

Growth support sets stage for ECB

"After holding up well in 2025 (1.5%), growth is expected to strengthen in 2026 (+1.6%)."

"The roll-out of fiscal measures in Germany and the planned increase in military spending and AI-related investment in Europe, against a backdrop of labour market resilience, underpin this scenario."

"Inflation is expected to remain below the 2% target in 2026."

"Stronger economic activity will lead to a progressive acceleration in inflation in 2027, albeit a moderate one."

"This would lead the ECB to increase the policy rate in H2 2027, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

• EUR/USD rebounds as easing geopolitical tensions weaken safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
• Trump pauses planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing “constructive” talks, boosting risk sentiment.
• Ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin inflation concerns despite the temporary de-escalation.

EUR/USD rebounds on Monday, erasing earlier losses as the Euro (EUR) gains traction amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran, reducing safe-haven demand for the Greenback.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1623, recovering from an intraday low near 1.1584. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades near 99 after retreating from an intraday high of 100.15.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had instructed the US Department of War to “postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period,” citing the “constructive” nature of ongoing discussions. He added that the decision remains conditional on progress in talks, which are expected to continue through the week.

Later, Trump told Fox Business that Iran “wants to make a deal badly,” adding that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner.

Speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said, “If they carry through, we will end the conflict.” He added that the US and Iran have reached around “15 points of agreement so far,” including that “Iran won’t have a nuclear weapon.”

However, Iran pushed back against Trump’s claims. Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing sources, said there were no direct communications with the US, nor through intermediaries. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry, cited by Mehr News Agency, said Trump’s remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for military plans.

The mixed signals from both sides continue to keep markets on edge. However, the immediate de-escalation tone has lifted overall market sentiment, while pushing Crude Oil prices sharply lower.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $85.75 at the time of writing, down nearly 12%, though it remains elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.

That said, unless there is a clear de-escalation and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty is likely to persist, keeping Oil-driven inflation risks elevated. Markets have responded by fully pricing in two rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, while Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have been fully priced out for 2026.

Elsewhere, the Financial Times reported on Monday that the European Union (EU) could lose favourable access to US liquefied natural gas (LNG) if it changes its trade deal with the United States, according to US Ambassador Andrew Puzder.

The European Parliament is set to vote on the pact on Thursday, which includes a commitment for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy by 2028, including LNG, Oil and civil nuclear technologies.