Forex News
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could rise above 0.5735; any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.5755. In the longer run, the price action suggests NZD is likely to advance further; the levels to watch are 0.5735 and 0.5755, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
NZD is likely to advance further
24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD surged to a high of 0.5702 two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that 'there is a chance for NZD to rise to 0.5735'. However, we were of the view that 'given the deeply overbought conditions, a sustained rise above this level is unlikely'. NZD subsequently rose to a high of 0.5732. Although upward momentum has not increased much, NZD could rise above 0.5735 today. Based on the current momentum, any further advance is unlikely to reach the next resistance at 0.5755. Support levels are at 0.5710 and 0.5695."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view on NZD to positive two days ago (26 Nov, spot at 0.5660). We highlighted that 'the rapid increase in short-term upward momentum could lead to NZD testing 0.5690'. After NZD subsequently soared to 0.5702, we highlighted yesterday (27 Nov, spot at 0.5700) that 'the price action suggests NZD is likely to advance further, and the levels to watch are 0.5735 and 0.5755'. We pointed out that 'to keep the momentum going, NZD must not break below 0.5640 (‘strong support’ level)'. We maintain the same view, but the ‘strong support’ level is now at 0.5665 instead of 0.5640."
- The Euro extends losses, nearing 1.1550 against the US Dollar.
- The pair is still on track for a weekly gain, favoured by a weaker US Dollar.
- Growing hopes of Fed interest rate cuts keep USD rallies limited.
EUR/USD extends its reversal from highs above 1.1600 earlier on Friday, and trades at 1.1560 following a batch of mixed Eurozone figures, with traders awaiting Preliminary German inflation data. From a wider perspective, however, the pair remains on track to a 0.5% weekly gain, as hopes that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates further in December keep weighing on the US Dollar.
Eurozone data has been mixed. Retail Sales declined against expectations in October, while the Import Price Index came above forecasts and the Unemployment rate remained unchanged, despite lower-than-expected job creation. In France, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed the preliminary estimations, but consumer inflation remained steady, against market expectations of growing price pressures.
Trading activity remains subdued on Friday, with US markets operating at half throttle amid the Thanksgiving festivities and an outage at CME Group's data center, which disrupted trade on its currency platform.
The US economic calendar is void this Friday, while in Europe, preliminary German inflation and employment figures and a speech by the President of the Bundesbank and ECB member Joachim Nagel might provide some guidance for the Euro.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.08% | -0.31% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.01% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | 0.08% | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.16% | 0.09% | -0.17% | -0.02% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | 0.17% | 0.13% | -0.15% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.28% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.32% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.10% | -0.09% | 0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Rising hopes of Fed rate cuts are weighing on the US Dollar's recovery
- The US Dollar is picking up amid a mild rebound in US Treasury yields, but upside attempts remain limited. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst weekly performance since July. Investors are forecasting several Fed interest rate cuts over the next 12 months, while most of the world's major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have reached the end of their easing cycles.
- Macroeconomic data from Germany released earlier on Friday revealed that retail consumption contracted at a 0.3% pace in October, against market expectations of a steady 0.2% increase. Year on Year, German Retail Sales rose at a 0.9% pace, from an upwardly revised 0.8% in September.
- The German Import Price Index contracted 1.4% year-on-year in October, after a 1% fall in September, but above the 1.6% decline forecasted by the market. The monthly index grew 0.2%, at the same pace as in September, against expectations of a flat reading.
- Later on, data from Destatis revealed that net employment grew by 1,000 jobs in October, retracing the 1,000 net loss seen in September, but well below the 5,000 gain forecasted by the market. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3%.
- In France, the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) confirmed the preliminary estimations of a 0.5% growth, while the CPI year-on-year remained steady, growing at a 0.8% pace in October, against market expectations of an acceleration to 1%.
- Later on Friday, the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to have accelerated to a 2.4% year-on-year pace in November, from 2.3% in October, although the monthly reading is seen contracting 0.6% following a 0.3% rise in October.
Technical Analysis: Under growing bearish pressure towards 1.1550
The EUR/USD came under increasing bearish pressure during Friday's European session, following a rejection at 1.1600 earlier on the day. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered nearish territory below the 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below the signal line, underlining the increasing bearish momentum.
A confirmation below the previous resistance level of 1.1550 (around November 21 and 24 highs). would give bears confidence to aim for the 1.1500 psychological level ahead of the November 5 lows, near 1.1470. The channel bottom, now around 1.1420, looks too distant a target for the coming sessions.
A bullish reaction, on the contrary, would need to break the mentioned channel top around 1.1615 to confirm a trend shift and bring the October 28 high, near 1.1670, into focus. Further up, the next target is the October 17 high, right below 1.1730.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The prospect of a BoJ rate hike in December continues to grow with the OIS implied probability now creeping above the 50% level. The data released today in Tokyo did nothing to alter the gradual increasing probability with Tokyo CPI data revealing a core annual rate of 2.8%, slightly higher than the market consensus, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny reports.
Yen gains supported despite limited FX reaction
"The weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY) is helping lift inflation expectations with Japan’s 10-year breakeven rate trading just below 1.7%, matching the high from March this year, the highest in the series going back to 2004. The BoJ will also have more confidence on the outlook for the economy. Industrial output jumped by 1.4% MoM in October following a 2.6% gain in September. The market was expecting a decline of 0.6% in October. It was the largest two-month gain since July 2022."
"Further stimulus is now on the way as well and today the government announced its plans for JGB issuance to cover the extra spending. The net extra spend in the JPY 21.3trn supplementary budget amounts to JPY 18.3trn and JPY 11.7trn of this will be covered by issuance of additional debt. In a step that will help support the long-end of the curve the issuance will focus on front-end tenors with t-bills, 2-year and 5-year JGBs taking the added issuance. There had been an expectation that the 10-year sector would also see added issuance."
"Upward pressure on front-end yields is also more supportive for the yen than an issuance plan that encouraged curve steepening. The issuance plan along with the data released today and the rising probability of a BoJ rate hike in December should prove more supportive for the yen although there has been limited FX reaction today to the data and issuance announcement. FX volumes are bring impacted following the halting of trading on CME after a data canter issue. Today is also month-end and FX performance can often be determined by those less predictable flows."
- Canadian GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% in September, recovering from a 1.6% decline in August.
- The Bank of Canada sees Q3 GDP expanding by 0.5% from a year earlier.
- The Canadian Dollar has regained some footing since monthly lows.
The release of the Canadian GDP growth rate will be a salient event on the domestic calendar on Friday. Markets expect the economy to have expanded 0.5% during the July-September period compared with the same period a year earlier.
Canadian GDP expected to recover after sinking in Q2
After shrinking at an annualised rate of 1.6% in the previous quarter, the Canadian economy looks to have bounced back nicely, with growth expected to land around 0.5%, which is right in line with what the Bank of Canada (BoC) had been looking for.
On a monthly basis, GDP is forecast to expand by 0.2% in September, recovering from a 0.3% decline in the previous month.
It’s also worth noting that the BoC delivered another 25 basis points rate cut on October 29, taking the policy rate down to 2.25%. During that meeting, officials revised their forecast, projecting growth of approximately 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, as the economy gradually stabilises.
According to analysts at TD Securities, “Q3 National Accounts provide the main risk event this week with another update on how economic activity has evolved into H2, with TD and the market looking for a partial (+0.5%) rebound from the 1.6% pullback in Q2.”
When will the GDP be released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
Statistics Canada is set to disclose the GDP figures at 13:30 GMT on Friday.
For USD/CAD, a stronger-than-expected result could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a brief lift. But any reaction is likely to be short-lived, given that the pair has been moving almost entirely to the rhythm of the US Dollar (USD) lately. And that, in turn, comes down to shifting market expectations about when the next Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut will be.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the Canadian Dollar has managed to appreciate a tad since its lows earlier this month, prompting USD/CAD to slip back toward the sub-1.4100 region. Meanwhile, further gains appear likely above the key 200-day SMA near 1.3922.
Piovano notes that the resurgence of a bullish tone could encourage the pair to challenge the November ceiling at 1.4140 (November 5) before attempting a move to the April peak at 1.4414 (April 1).
Conversely, Piovano highlights that minor support comes at the November base of 1.3971 (November 18), prior to the always-relevant 200-day SMA at 1.3922. The loss of the latter could expose a deeper pullback to the October floor at 1.3887 (October 29) ahead of the September trough at 1.3726 (September 17) and the July valley at 1.3556 (July 3).
“In addition, momentum indicators remain constructive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 53 level, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 20 suggests a still firm trend,” he says.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canadian economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Oct 31, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -0.3%
Consensus: 0%
Previous: 0.2%
Source:
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Silver remains steady near $54.00 after rejection at $54.40 area.
XAG/USD metal is on track for a nearly 8% rally this week.
Investors' hopes of Fed monetary policy easing are supporting speculative demand for precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) has failed to break November’s peak, at $54.40 area on Friday, weighed by a somewhat firmer US Dollar. The precious metal, however, remains close to $54.00, trading at $53,85 at the time of writing, after rallying nearly 8% this week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of peers, is picking up from weekly lows amid a frail rebound in US Treasury yields on Friday's thinned Thanksgiving trading.
Nevertheless, the market is pricing a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and a few more next year, which is likely to keep speculative demand for the Greenback subdued and fuel the precious metal's rally.
Technical Analysis: The next upside targets are $54.40 and $54.85
The technical picture remains positive. The rejection at $54.40 earlier on Friday has been contained above $53.50. Oscillators are at positive levels. The 4-Hour RSI is right below oversold territory while the MACD is turning flat at high levels, suggesting the possibility of some consolidation.
On the downside, the intra-day low at the mentioned $53.50 level is the prime support area ahead of Thursday’s low at the $52.70 area and the November 25 low, near $50.70.
Bulls remain focused on the November 13 highs, at the $54.40 area, which is the last hurdle ahead of the multi-year high of $54.85 reached in mid-October. Further up, the 261% Fibonacci extension of the November 21-25 rally, a common exhaustion level, is at the $56.60 area.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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