Forex News
- Silver rises as Middle East de-escalation lowers oil prices, easing inflation concerns and central bank hawkishness.
- Washington ended offensive operations against Iran, reaffirming the ceasefire, as Marco Rubio said objectives were achieved.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire holds despite Gulf clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after two days of losses, trading around $75.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding white metal gains ground as signs of de-escalation in the Middle East weighed on oil prices, helping to ease inflation concerns and hawkish sentiment surrounding the central banks.
Silver price has come under sustained selling pressure since the start of the conflict, as surging energy costs fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer or even tighten policy further.
Washington announced an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.
However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran was not fully settled, as both sides continued exchanging fire in the Gulf amid tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump stated that the US would temporarily pause efforts to help stranded vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz, allowing time to evaluate prospects for a deal with Iran to end the conflict. However, the blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports will remain in effect.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- USD/JPY softens to near 157.65 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Trump said he is pausing the operation that helps ships leave the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders remain cautious after suspected intervention.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground to around 157.65 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after US President Donald Trump announces a pause on 'Project Freedom' in the Strait of Hormuz. The US April ADP Employment Change report will be released later on Wednesday.
Trump said on Tuesday that Iran and the US have mutually agreed that while the US blockade “will remain in full force and effect," Project Freedom will be paused. Trump further stated that this was to see if an agreement between the two countries can be finalized and signed. US President noted the decision was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries and follows what he called “tremendous military success” during a US campaign against Iran.
Markets remain on high alert following suspected interventions by Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan can take action against speculative foreign-exchange movements. "It's probably going to take another round of significant intervention to push the dollar more significantly lower," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
The US employment data for April will be in the spotlight on Friday. This report could influence interest rate expectations and the pair’s next move. Economists expect the US economy to have added 60,000 jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.3 during the same period. Any signs of improvement in the US labor market could lift the Greenback against the JPY in the near term.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Wednesday.
AUD/USD reaction to China’s Services PMI
The Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD), edges slightly higher following the Chinese data, with AUD/USD gaining 0.66% on the day to 0.7230, as of writing.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- USD/CAD weakens as the US Dollar softens amid optimism over a potential Tehran deal.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire holds despite Gulf clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The commodity-linked CAD may weaken as oil prices fall amid easing supply concerns on fading Middle East tensions.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair retreats as the US Dollar (USD) softens on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by rising optimism over a potential deal with Tehran.
Washington announced an end to offensive operations against Iran and reaffirmed the ceasefire, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” adding that its objectives had been achieved.
However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran was not fully settled, as both sides continued exchanging fire in the Gulf amid tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Losses in the USD/CAD pair may be capped, as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may face pressure from weaker oil prices. West Texas Intermediate continues to decline, trading near $97.90 per troy ounce at the time of writing.
Oil prices are falling as supply concerns ease alongside fading Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump stated that the US would temporarily pause efforts to help stranded vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz, allowing time to evaluate prospects for a deal with Iran to end the conflict.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
- GBP/USD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a broadly weaker USD.
- Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading hawkish Fed bets exert pressure on the buck.
- BoE rate hike expectations act as a tailwind for the GBP and further support spot prices.
The GBP/USD pair attracts buyers for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and moves away from the weekly low, around the 1.3515-1.3510 area, which was touched the previous day. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to the 1.3580 region during the Asian session.
US President Donald Trump said that ‘Project Freedom’ – aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see if the Iran peace deal can be finalised. This comes hours after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now and that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran. The comments lift hopes for a quick resolution of the US-Iran conflict and boost investors' confidence, prompting some selling around the USD and providing a goodish lift to the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a fresh leg down in Crude Oil prices, which helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers market expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook turns out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England's (BoE) signal that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent. This further contributes to the GBP/USD pair follow-through move higher and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move.
Moving ahead, the US ADP report on private-sector employment, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could provide some impetus later during the early North American session. The key focus, however, will be on the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might continue to infuse volatility across the global financial markets, which will drive the USD and the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.24% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.57% | -0.60% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.24% | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.32% | -0.39% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.29% | -0.35% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.09% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.43% | -0.47% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.10% | -0.13% | -0.00% | -0.42% | -0.46% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.57% | 0.32% | 0.29% | 0.43% | 0.42% | -0.03% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | 0.60% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 0.46% | 0.03% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | 0.00% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.34% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/USD gathers strength to near 1.1720 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Trump said Project Freedom and the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz had paused.
- EU urged the US to restore Turnberry trade terms ahead of the deal's first anniversary.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.1720 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump said the Project Freedom and movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz had paused. Traders brace for the US ADP Employment Change report later on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
The Guardian reported on Tuesday that Trump said Iran and the US have mutually agreed that while the US blockade “will remain in full force and effect," Project Freedom will be paused. Trump added that this action was to see if an agreement between the two countries could be finalized and signed. Earlier Tuesday, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that the US-Iran ceasefire is in place despite attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. Any signs of easing tensions in the Middle East could underpin riskier assets such as the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
The European Commission said on Tuesday that the European Union's (EU) trade chief has urged the US to swiftly restore the tariffs agreed in last year's EU-US trade deal. The Commission added that it would be beneficial if the main terms of that deal were in place ahead of its one-year anniversary at the end of July.
Maros Sefcovic visited US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris on Tuesday, with Trump's threat to raise tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25% among the EU's main concerns, per Reuters.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- AUD/USD gains as the Australian Dollar strengthens after the AiG Industry Index improved to -24.4 in April, signaling stabilization.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US-Iran ceasefire holds despite Gulf clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE said it intercepted nearly all of about 20 Iranian missiles and drones launched the previous day.
AUD/USD gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 0.7220 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders are set to closely monitor the US ADP Employment Change report, which is scheduled for release later in the day and is expected to provide fresh insight into labor market conditions.
The AUD/USD pair continues to gain traction, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) drawing support after the AiG Industry Index showed improvement to -24.4 in April, from revised -34.1 in March. This reading suggests some degree of stabilization in industrial activity, although it still reflects a pronounced contraction in overall conditions.
The Ai Group Manufacturing index remained largely unchanged, edging up by 0 to -27.9 in April, which keeps it firmly within contraction territory as firms continue to grapple with persistent cost pressures and subdued demand.
Meanwhile, the Ai Group Industry Index for Australia’s construction sector surged to -19.3 in April 2026, signaling a notable improvement in operating conditions despite the sector still being in contraction. Businesses across the sector reported that underlying demand remained steady during the period.
On the geopolitical front, Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary of the United States, stated on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran had not fully concluded, even as both sides continued exchanging fire in the Gulf region amid ongoing tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates confirmed that it has been actively responding to missile and drone threats, reporting that it successfully intercepted nearly all of the approximately 20 projectiles launched from Iran on the previous day.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8562 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.8628 and 6.8160 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- NZD/USD attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Wednesday.
- US-Iran peace deal hopes undermine the USD and support the NZD despite mixed NZ data.
- Easing inflationary concerns temper hawkish Fed bets and further weigh on the Greenback.
The NZD/USD pair is seen building on the previous day's goodish rebound from the vicinity of mid-0.5800s, or the weekly low, and gaining positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. The momentum seems unaffected by New Zealand's mixed jobs data and lifts spot prices back above the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session.
Statistics New Zealand reported earlier today that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly edged lower to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026 from 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Additional details revealed that the number of employed people rose 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.5% in Q4 and missing the consensus forecast of 0.3%. The data, however, was overshadowed by the latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, which undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
In fact, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the US will pause an operation aimed at restoring shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and added that a deal with Iran was close. Earlier, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had said that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran, and that the Project Freedom was a temporary measure. This boosts investors' confidence and prompts fresh selling around the USD, assisting the NZD/USD pair to attract some follow-through buyers.
Meanwhile, hopes for a quick resolution to the US-Iran conflict drag Crude Oil prices to a one-week low. This, in turn, helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers bets for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is seen as another factor weighing on the Greenback. Moreover, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint back the case for a further appreciation for the NZD/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to the US ADP report on private-sector employment, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, might influence the USD later during the North American session. The key focus, however, will remain glued to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the NZD/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the percentage of unemployed workers in the total civilian labor force. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market and weakness in the New Zealand economy. Generally, a decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while an increase is seen as negative bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue May 05, 2026 22:45
Frequency: Quarterly
Actual: 5.3%
Consensus: 5.4%
Previous: 5.4%
Source: Stats NZ
Statistics New Zealand releases employment data on a quarterly basis. The statistics shed a light on New Zealand’s labor market, including unemployment and employment rates, demand for labor and changes in wages and salaries. These employment indicators tend to have an impact on the country’s inflation and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, eventually affecting the NZD. A better-than-expected print could turn out to be NZD bullish.
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