Forex News
OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore’s August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets. OCBC Economists upgraded their 2026 NODX forecast to 20% year-on-year, but Wong notes this solid external backdrop is unlikely to drive spot near term. USD/SGD has eased with lower US yields and a softer Dollar, and future SGD performance will hinge on US yield and Dollar dynamics.
USD/SGD guided by yields and Dollar
"August NODX jumped 46.2% y/y, well above the 35.3% consensus and up sharply from 24.1% in July. Electronics exports surged 131.8%, led by AI-related demand for ICs, disk media products and PCs, while non-electronics also rose."
"The strength was broad-based across most major markets, although a favourable base effect also contributed to the headline jump."
"Our Economists upgraded our 2026 NODX forecast from 15.2% to 20% y/y, taking into account that NODX already surged 22.4% y/y in the first 8 months and even after factoring a moderation to 15.6% YoY for the remaining four months of the year."
"The data reinforce an already solid external-growth backdrop but are unlikely to be the main driver of spot in the near term. Overnight, USD/SGD eased lower, taking cues from UST yields and USD. If UST yields continue to ease, SGD should be relatively well placed to benefit, while renewed USD strength/ higher UST yield would likely keep USD/SGD supported."
"Daily momentum is bullish but RSI eased lower from near overbought conditions. A death cross appears to be in the making (50 DMA cuts 200 DMA to the downside)."
"We watch further price action for confirmation for any bearish reversal or if bearish signals are being nullified. Area of resistance at 1.2790 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) - 1.2810 (50, 100, 200 DMAs). Next level at 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740 (61.8% fibo), 1.27 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD clears 0.7100 after reclaiming June resistance.
- RSI nears bullish territory as buyers regain momentum.
- Break above 0.7168 exposes 0.7200 and 0.7237 next.
The Aussie Dollar is poised to end the week on a positive note versus the US Dollar, up 0.21% as improved risk appetite keeps AUD/USD trading near 0.7124, closing near Friday's highs.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
After breaching the June 15 high of 0.7088, which turned support once cleared, the AUD/USD broke above 0.7100 and hit a two-day high of 0.7136 before settling at around 0.7120.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the index is bearish but about to turn bullish. This means buyers expect further upside, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates at the September 29 meeting.
If the AUD/USD extends its gains above the current week’s high of 0.7168, a move to 0.7200 is on the cards. On further strength, the next stop will be the September 9 daily high of 0.7237, followed by the May 6 cycle high of 0.7277.
On the other hand, if AUD/USD falls beneath the 50-day SMA of 0.7084, the next stop will be the 100-day SMA at 0.7078. Beneath is the September 16 swing low of 0.7075, ahead of challenging the 200-day SMA at 0.7012.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that USD/CNH is easing toward 6.70 despite a stronger Dollar, with the Renminbi (RMB) supported by a lower USD/CNY fixing below 6.76. He links this to possible goodwill from China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and expects RMB to strengthen further into next Thursday’s meeting as markets hope for an extended US–China trade truce.
USD/CNH drift and Trump–Xi summit
"USD/CNH has been easing gradually towards 6.70 in defiance of a stronger USD."
"The stronger RMB is supported by a steady decline in the USD/CNY fixing to below 6.76 yesterday, which is perhaps a goodwill gesture from China ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington next week."
"The US is also reportedly holding back a planned announcement of new tariffs related to alleged excess manufacturing capacity, at least until next week’s summit."
"With the leaders set to discuss wide-ranging issues related to trade, Iran and AI, markets could hope for an extension of the US-China trade truce beyond November."
"We expect Renminbi (RMB) to strengthen further into the Trump-Xi summit next Thursday."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD reverses from 0.5787 as sellers regain control.
- RSI nears oversold territory, reinforcing downside momentum.
- Break below 0.5700 exposes 0.5671 and the year-to-date low.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turns negative on Friday, down 0.11% against the US Dollar (USD), in a week that saw the Federal Reserve's (Fed) first rate hike in three years, which underpinned the Greenback against most G8 FX currencies. The NZD/USD pair trades at 0.5725 after reaching a high of 0.5787.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Price action shows that sellers piled in strongly on Friday as NZD/USD spiked towards 0.5787, but the move reversed and the pair finished the week near Friday’s daily low.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to turn oversold for the second time in September, meaning that the downtrend is set to resume.
For a bearish continuation, NZD/USD must clear 0.5700. A decisive break will expose the July 8 daily low of 0.5671, before the pair challenges the year-to-date low of 0.5626.
On the other hand, if NZD/USD rises past 0.5750, it opens the door to test 0.5800. If breached, the pair’s next resistance is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5834. Above is the 200-day SMA at 0.5853 and the 50-day SMA at 0.5856.
NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD has slipped into a short-term range phase after a sharp pullback, with intraday trading expected between 1.2735 and 1.2775. However, the 1–3 week outlook remains constructive, with the advance from late last week intact unless 1.2710 breaks, and upside levels at 1.2800 and 1.2835 still in focus.
Dollar-Singapore range but bias positive
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rally two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that “while strong momentum could outweigh the current deeply overbought conditions, it remains to be seen whether USD can reach 1.2800.” We indicated the following: “support is at 1.2760; the next support at 1.2740 should hold for now.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. USD pulled back sharply to 1.2738 before recovering to close 0.20% lower at 1.2758. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, USD is likely to trade between 1.2735 and 1.2775."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 1.2780), we highlighted that “the outlook for USD remains positive.” We also highlighted that “the levels to watch are 1.2800 and 1.2835.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 1.2710 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the advance from late last week is pausing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Christopher Wong at OCBC writes that the Malaysian Ringgit weakened during Thursday’s Asian session on a firmer US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields after the FOMC, with USD/MYR briefly trading above 4.10 in an orderly move. He notes some pressure eased as the Dollar and yields retreated and Oil pulled back. Wong expects cautious MYR trading if US yields and the Dollar rise again, but sees room for recent weakness to reverse as post-Fed moves settle and domestic fundamentals remain supportive.
USD/MYR overbought as fundamentals support
"MYR weakened on Thursday Asian time zone amid firmer USD and higher UST yields post-FOMC. USD/MYR briefly traded above 4.10, although the move remained orderly and there was little sign of Malaysia-specific stress."
"That said, some pressure eased overnight as the USD and UST yields came off their highs, while oil also pulled back. Near term, MYR may trade cautious if UST yields and the USD push higher again."
"But as the post-Fed rates move starts to settle, there should be room for some of the recent weakness to reverse, with domestic fundamentals still broadly supportive."
"Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI rose into overbought conditions. Lack of follow-through to the upside may see USD/MYR turn lower and close the earlier post-holiday gap."
"Support at 4.0870, 4.0730 levels (50 DMA). Resistance here at 4.10, 4.12 levels"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the British Pound (GBP) is only marginally firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) despite stronger-than-expected August retail sales. They argue Thursday’s hawkish Bank of England (BoE) hold may cap near-term gains, even as UK politics remain supportive with continued confidence in the government’s fiscal responsibility. Technically, the broader uptrend from June persists, but GBP/USD must hold above the mid/lower-1.33s to preserve ascending support.
Pound struggles to build on data
"The pound is entering Friday’s NA session with a marginal gain and seeing little of the strength that should be following the release of stronger than expected retail sales data for August. The print was solid, and came in well above expectations of a modest contraction in consumer spending. The data follow Thursday’s hawkish hold from the BoE, which may have left limited scope for material near-term strength."
"In politics, the narrative remains constructive as market participants and media signal ongoing confidence in the government’s efforts to maintain their commitment to fiscal responsibility."
"Bearish/neutral—the RSI is bearish, having reached the oversold threshold at 30. The medium-term trend from June remains bullish however spot will need to remain above the mid/lower-1.33s in order to maintain the trend of ascending support."
"We look to near-term support around 1.3320 and see limited near-term resistance ahead of 1.3480."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- US 10-year yield returns to 5% after Fed hike.
- BoJ joins tightening wave as global inflation risks persist.
- October and December Fed hike odds keep yields elevated.
US Treasury yields rise on Friday, boosted mainly by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to increase rates on Wednesday, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) added its name to the list of major central banks focused on preventing inflation from getting out of control.
Treasury yields climb as Fed and BoJ hikes reinforce inflation fears
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is up over six basis points to 5%, shy of Tuesday’s 5.041%, the highest since 2007.
Uncertainty around the Middle East conflict pushed Oil prices higher, increasing the risk of upside inflation. Consequently, major central banks are stepping in to raise interest rates.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan, in a 7-2 vote, increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, its highest level in 31 years. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve unanimously opted for a rate hike of the same size as the BoJ, the first increase in three years, recognising that inflation is well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
The jump in US bond yields is moving in tandem with traders pricing in further Fed rate hikes. For the end of 2026, money markets priced in 34 basis points of tightening. The odds of a hike in October are 55%, and in December, 90%, according to Prime Terminal.
US Industrial Production remained flat from July to August at 0% MoM, falling short of July’s 0.2% and the expected 0.3% growth.
Next week, the US economic schedule includes speeches from Federal Reserve officials, jobs reports, S&P Flash PMIs, and Durable Goods Orders.
US 10-year Treasury yield – Daily Chart
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Rabobank strategists Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot highlight that sharply higher Oil and natural gas forecasts will lift headline Eurozone inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027. They now see inflation peaking around 4.4% year-on-year in early 2027, with core inflation only modestly higher, and expect sluggish disinflation to keep the ECB deposit rate near 2.50% until at least 2028.
Higher energy lifts headline inflation
"These revisions have a significant impact on our inflation forecasts. Based on these higher prices for oil products and natural gas, our inflation models predict 0.5 percentage point stronger headline inflation across this year and next."
"We now expect inflation to peak at 4.4% y/y in January and February, after which base effects should gradually lessen the impact of energy prices on the inflation rate. This takes our inflation forecasts to 3.1% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027."
"Whereas we revised our headline inflation forecast significantly, we only see 0.1pp higher core inflation. This is mostly due to the direct and indirect effects of higher energy prices, as well as the assumption that the war in the Middle East will lead to somewhat higher supply chain pressures in coming months."
"If economic activity stays resilient through the fourth quarter and energy inflation remains high, employees could demand higher pay increases to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. With inflation likely to peak around 4.5% early next year, that risk is non-negligible."
"Having said that, we do believe that core inflation will be sluggish on the way down. We therefore think that the ECB will leave the deposit facility rate at the upper end of the neutral range for some time, and rate cuts below 2.50% will probably not happen before 2028."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is posting a small gain versus the US Dollar (USD) as EUR/USD extends Thursday’s modest recovery and attempts to stabilize after the latest FOMC meeting. Relative policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed are seen as stabilizing, with ECB policymakers remaining hawkish amid energy-linked inflation concerns and growth, while German PPI surprised to the upside.
Euro attempts post-FOMC base
"The EUR is entering Friday’s NA session with a fractional gain vs. the USD as it builds on Thursday’s modest recovery and attempts stabilization in the aftermath of this week’s FOMC."
"The outlook for relative central bank policy looks to be stabilizing as market participants assess the near-term risk of tightening from the ECB, as policymakers remain overwhelmingly hawkish tying their views to both energy-related inflation concerns as well as growth. Fundamental releases have been limited to stronger than expected German PPI."
"The EUR’s momentum indicators remain bearish but look to be stabilizing just above oversold levels suggesting limited additional weakness from current levels."
"EUR/USD short-term technicals: Bearish/neutral—the latest stabilization in spot is encouraging as we note short-term support at 1.1450 and see limited resistance ahead of the mid-1.15s."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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