Forex News
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH has been confined to a tight range and expect the Dollar to trade between 6.7430 and 6.7530 in the near term. Over the coming weeks, they still see scope for a drift lower toward 6.7300 unless 6.7580 resistance breaks, while a medium-term recovery needs a move above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430.
Dollar stuck in tight CNH range
"24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated yesterday that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 6.7410 and 6.7510.” However, USD traded within a tight 6.7444/6.7489 range. We are not able to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 6.7430 and 6.7530."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300.” Although there has been no further increase in downward momentum, there is still a chance for USD to edge lower toward 6.7300. On the upside, a breach of 6.7580 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to range-trade instead."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 13:
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its recovery on Wednesday following a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that printed in line with forecasts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed back above the 100.00 mark, and the bid has broadened out against most majors heading into a data-heavy Thursday.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.39% | 0.35% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.24% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.00% | -0.16% | 0.26% | 0.21% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.01% | -0.13% | 0.28% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 0.28% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.40% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.24% | -0.26% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | -0.35% | -0.17% | -0.21% | -0.22% | -0.20% | -0.37% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD has slipped back toward the low 1.1500s, with the pair reversing earlier gains as the US Dollar recovered from its post-CPI decline.
GBP/USD faded into the high-1.3400s as traders position ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Thursday.
USD/JPY has extended its rebound, pushing back toward the 159.50 region.
Gold has extended its advance to trade near $4,410 per troy ounce amid Middle East tensions racking up.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil holds steady near the $83.00 per barrel mark as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.
The Asian session opens on Thursday with New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectations, followed in the European session by the main event, the UK's preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected to show growth slowing down.
The US session brings Initial Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), where core prices are expected to slow sharply to 4.2% YoY in July from 4.7%. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Hammack and Barkin are both due to speak around the release.
Late in the day, New Zealand's Business Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and a speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will close out the session, setting the tone for Friday's Asia-Pacific open.
- XAG/USD clears key resistance after reclaiming the 50-day SMA.
- Bullish RSI keeps $66.59 and the 100-day SMA in focus.
- Pullback below $63.28 exposes the 50-day SMA and $60.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) price surges over 1.40% on Wednesday as the latest inflation report in the United States (US) showed that prices are cooling, on its way towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) goal of 2%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $65.53 after reaching a daily high of $66.80.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the white metal is neutral to upward biased, with bulls gathering strength. They cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $61.60 and also the July 6 high at $63.28 on its way towards reclaiming the $65.00 figure.
Momentum still favors further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aiming upwards. Hence, the path of least resistance is up.
The first resistance would be the August 10 high at $66.59. Once surpassed, the next stop is the 100-day SMA at $68.87, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.47. Above lies $75.00.
For a bearish resumption, XAG/USD must drop below the 50-day SMA. This can prompt investors to challenge the July 6 high-turned support of $63.28. Beneath, the next area of interest is the $60.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold rallies above $4,400 as softer CPI eases Fed pressure.
- Fed hold bets rise for September after cooler inflation print.
- Hormuz closure risk keeps energy-driven inflation concerns alive.
Gold price (XAU/USD) registers gains of over 1% on Wednesday as US inflation data aligns with estimates, easing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) task of further tightening monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory. The XAU/USD trades above $4,400 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,362.
XAU/USD rallies after US inflation cools, easing September hike fears
Bullion extended its gains as investors speculate that the Fed will not raise rates at its September meeting, following July’s report. On Tuesday, money markets priced in a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting. But the dip in inflation shifted the odds to 60% that the US central bank will keep rates steady, according to Prime Terminal data.
The Fed has a 73% chance of raising rates in December, with three inflation reports before the December 9 meeting.
July’s CPI came in at 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6%, while core CPI also edged lower from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY, as revealed by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). Even though Oil prices rose nearly 24% in July, gasoline prices declined for the second straight month.
However, geopolitics continued to weigh on the economy, and if negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach common ground to end the conflict, energy prices could jump again, threatening to halt the disinflation process in the US.
According to Al-Mayadeen, an Iranian political and security source said that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and that Tehran hasn’t changed its policy.
US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” It's a belief that isn't backed up by the facts on the waterway. At the same time, CNN reported that US embassies in the Middle East would continue to work with reduced staff amid the Iran war.
On Thursday, traders' eyes will be on the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and Initial Jobless Claims data. If the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rises, it could increase downside risks to the labour market, which could push the Unemployment Rate higher.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold climbs back above $4,400, eyes on $4,500
Gold price seems to be gaining traction as it clears the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,388, potentially opening the door to further upside. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining traction. Hence, the path of least resistance is upward in the short term.
XAU/USD's first resistance would be the $4,450 psychological level. A breach of it will expose the 200-day SMA exactly at the psychological $4,500 mark. A daily close above the latter could pave the way to challenge the $5,000 milestone.
On the flip side, if Gold falls below the low of the day (LOD) at $4,362, it opens the door to a deeper pullback. The next support is $4,300, followed by the July 6 high at $4,202. If this level fails, the next support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,150 and $4,100.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY rebounds to test session highs near 159.50, recovering the bulk of a sharp pullback.
- Wednesday's initial USD/JPY slip in reaction to the CPI print has faded.
- Attention turns to Thursday's PPI, where a sharp expected slowdown in core prices could test the Dollar's mettle.
USD/JPY is back around the mid-159.00s area, testing the day's highs after rebounding sharply from a low around the 158.60 level.
The move tracks a broader shift in the Greenback rather than anything Yen-specific, as Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed in-line with forecasts and initially pressured the Greenback, denting rate-hike bets, but that reaction has since reversed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is now firmer in the session.
On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due, with expectations that core wholesale prices will slow sharply on an annual basis. A soft print would fit the disinflation narrative and could cap the Dollar's rebound, while a hotter number would reinforce the recovery already underway.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.47, retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.90 and a dense cluster of horizontal supports between 159.09 and 159.22. The pair is advancing toward nearby resistance at 159.54, while the 100-period SMA at 160.65 remains a broader topside cap. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 shows firm bullish momentum but not overbought conditions, suggesting scope for an extension of the rebound while these supports underpin the price.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 159.22/159.09 zone, ahead of the dynamic floor from the 20-period SMA at 158.90 and the prior horizontal level at 158.68. On the topside, a break above the immediate barrier at 159.54 would open the way toward the 100-period SMA at 160.65, where stronger supply could emerge and temper further gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
- EUR/USD gives up earlier gains as the US Dollar recovers from its post-CPI decline.
- Repeated failures at the 100-day SMA keep the pair confined within its recent range.
- The 1.1500 mark offers immediate support, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1466.
EUR/USD edges lower on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) shrugs off in-line US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1521 after touching an intraday high of 1.1563.
The US Dollar weakened immediately after the inflation report as headline and core CPI eased to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, prompting traders to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets.
However, the Greenback later pared its losses as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside. Limited prospects for peace in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz also support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades close to the 100 psychological mark after rebounding from an intraday low of 99.61.
The US Dollar’s recovery drags EUR/USD toward the lower end of its recent range following repeated rejections at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a neutral-to-slightly bullish bias. The pair holds above the 1.1500 psychological mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1466.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, although the fading green histogram points to weakening bullish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) in the high 20s suggests moderate trend strength.
On the upside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1567 offers immediate resistance. A decisive break above this level would bring the 200-day SMA near 1.1630 into focus.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the horizontal level of 1.1500, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1466, a break of which would weaken the nascent positive tone and expose the pair to a deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- WTI Oil holds firm as traders look past a sharp rise in US crude inventories.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.
- The EIA raises its 2026 average WTI price forecast to $80.88 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades in a narrow range on Wednesday as traders weigh a sharp rise in US crude inventories against persistent supply risks in the Middle East. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $82.20 per barrel, hovering near a one-and-a-half-week high.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude inventories rose by 17.422 million barrels in the week ending August 7, far above the previous week’s increase of 2.479 million barrels. Markets had expected stocks to fall by 1.4 million barrels. This was the largest weekly increase since January 2023.
However, traders shrugged off the large inventory build as market sentiment remains driven by developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that Washington has “total control” over the waterway, adding, “I think we will keep it.”
Trump’s comments came after US forces disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship on Tuesday after it ignored repeated warnings and attempted to break the US naval blockade.
The continued closure of the Strait prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to lower its global Oil supply and demand forecasts. The agency now expects supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 to around 102 million bpd.
World Oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.6 million bpd, a 510,000 bpd larger contraction than estimated in the previous report. In a separate report, the EIA raised its forecast for the average WTI price in 2026 to $80.88 per barrel from $76.26 previously.
Technical analysis
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as WTI holds above both the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands near 53, pointing to neutral-to-positive momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening near the zero line, suggesting consolidation rather than a strong directional move.
On the upside, the 100-day SMA near $86 acts as the first major resistance. A decisive break above this level could open the door toward the $90 psychological mark, followed by $100.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $80 psychological mark, followed by the 50-day SMA at $78. A deeper pullback would expose the 200-day SMA at $75.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- GBP/USD holds firm as US CPI matches market expectations.
- Fed hold bets rise, but December hike chances remain.
- UK GDP data could reshape BoE rate-hike expectations.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds firm within familiar levels on Wednesday after the US inflation report was in line with estimates, a relief for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is laser-focused on tackling higher prices. The GBP/USD pair trades at around 1.3500 after reaching a high of 1.3546.
GBP/USD steadies after in-line US inflation data as traders await UK GDP
US inflation on the consumer front in July was in line with estimates, showing a deceleration from 3.6% to 3-5% on a yearly basis. Core inflation dipped as well to 2.5% YoY from 2.6%.
The data triggered a reaction in the bond markets. Now investors expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at the September meeting, with odds at 60%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point rise stand at nearly 40%, according to Prime Terminal data.
For the December meeting, the chances for a Fed rate hike are 73%, though there are three inflation reports left, ahead of the December 9 meeting.
Although the report is positive, geopolitics continues to play its role. Negotiations between the US and Iran are showing signs of stalling, with Iran adopting a robust military posture in the Strait of Hormuz, read a Bloomberg headline. Also, CNN reported that US embassies in the Middle East are preparing for extended periods with reduced staff, due to the Iran war.
In the UK, the schedule was absent, yet on Thursday, traders will scrutinize Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. On an annual basis, the figures are expected to improve from 0.9% to 1.1%, and on a quarterly basis, the British economy is expected to slow down from 0.6% to a 0.4% expansion.
If the GDP print comes in worse than expected, investors could price out rate increases by the Bank of England (BoE).
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3497. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the clustered support formed by the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) around 1.3369 and the reclaimed descending trendline break at 1.3427, while the more recent rising trend line off 1.3140 also underpins price at 1.3340. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.4 stays in positive territory, hinting at constructive momentum but still short of overbought conditions, which reinforces the notion of dips being supported rather than signaling exhaustion.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the descending resistance trend line break near 1.3511, followed by the higher rising trendline break level at 1.3573, where bullish attempts could start to face stronger supply. On the downside, initial support is located at the former resistance trend line now acting as a floor around 1.3427, ahead of the multi-period SMA cluster near 1.3369 and the lower rising trendline support at 1.3340, levels that would need to give way to undermine the current constructive tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.41% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.16% | 0.32% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.12% | 0.33% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.33% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.30% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.43% | 0.31% | |
| NZD | -0.41% | -0.32% | -0.33% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.43% | -0.14% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.31% | 0.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD holds firm near the 0.7070 area, building on its recent uptrend as the Greenback struggles to find fresh momentum.
- US CPI printed in line with forecasts.
- Attention turns to Thursday's PPI, where a sharp expected slowdown in core prices could reinforce the market's dovish read on the Fed.
AUD/USD is trading near the 0.7070 zone, holding onto a minority of Wednesday's gains after the pair touched a session high near 0.7090.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in largely as expected, with headline inflation rising 0.1% on the month and 3.4% YoY, matching forecasts, while the core annual rate eased to 2.5%, just below the 2.6% consensus. The read initially knocked the US Dollar (USD) lower and tempered rate-hike bets.
The next test comes Thursday, when the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due. Core producer prices are expected to slow sharply on an annual basis, a reading that would add to the disinflation case already building after Wednesday's CPI.
Fed relief builds as July data supports policy hold
According to TD Securities, the July inflation report "should continue to bring relief to the Fed regarding the need for tighter policy, at least in the near horizon." The bank points to "signs of normalization in services prices along with tariff pass-through that remains under control," arguing that these dynamics "bode well for concerns around sticky core inflation." On that basis, TD Securities reiterates that "we remain of the view that the Fed will keep its policy stance unchanged this year."
In terms of market reaction, TD notes that "markets remain relatively unchanged in the wake of the July report, with the pricing for a hike in the September meeting still sitting just under 50%." While "the print is supportive of a Fed hold," the strategists caution that they are "still waiting on further data before the September meeting since the Fed has lowered the bar for a rate hike." They also flag that "the PPI report carries some risks to our 0.18% m/m preliminary PCE forecast," underscoring that upcoming releases could yet refine expectations around the near-term policy path.
Technical analysis
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7067. The pair holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7062 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7016, suggesting a mildly constructive near-term tone while it presses into a tight band of overhead supply. The horizontal support at 0.7060 reinforces the immediate base, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 hints at positive but not overstretched momentum as buyers test the upper end of the recent range.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at 0.7069, followed closely by clustered barriers at 0.7071 and 0.7078, where a sustained break would open the way for further gains. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-period SMA at 0.7062, with the horizontal level at 0.7060 acting as a nearby floor. A deeper pullback would expose the more distant 100-period SMA support at 0.7016.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
