Forex News
- Silver price declines to near $49.50 as traders keep Fed rate hold bets.
- Fed’s Hammack stresses the need to bring inflation down.
- The US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in September.
Silver price (XAG/USD) revisits the weekly low around $49.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the December policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 35.5%.
The scenario in which the Fed holds interest rates steady bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fed dovish expectations stay lower as officials remain concerned over rising inflation risks to the upside. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack stated that high is the “real issue” of the economy, adding that “inflation is still too high and trending in wrong direction”, which calls for the need to keep the monetary policy “somewhat restrictive”.
Meanwhile, the rising United States (US) jobless rate has also failed to intensify Fed dovish expectations meaningfully. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price struggles to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $49.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors about the near-term outlook.
Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.
Silver daily chart
cutting
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD edges higher to near 1.3090 in Friday’s early European session.
- The pair keeps the bearish vibe in the daily chart, capping below the key 100-day EMA.
- RSI stands below the midline near 39, confirming weak momentum in the near term.
The GBP/USD pair strengthens to around 1.3090 during the early European session on Friday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid growing expectations of the Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at its next monetary policy meeting in December. Traders brace for the UK Retail Sales data later on Friday, along with the flash UK S&P Global PMI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Recent weak UK economic data, such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, disappointing GDP, and Industrial Production readings, have boosted a BoE rate cut bets in the December meeting. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates in December and again early next year as inflation cools over the coming months, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who last month expected borrowing costs to remain unchanged for the remainder of this year.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3091. The descending 100-day EMA at 1.3323 continues to cap rebounds and preserves a broader bearish bias. Price action remains settled below this average, keeping the focus on the downside. RSI at 39 stays below the 50 midline, confirming weak momentum without oversold stress. A daily close back above the EMA would ease pressure.
Bollinger Bands contract, with price holding beneath the 20-period midline at 1.3148, signaling reduced volatility. The narrowing envelope indicates a coiling phase. A close above the midline could open a run toward the upper band at 1.3290, while failure to reclaim it would leave the lower band at 1.3005 exposed. The near-term tone stays heavy unless buyers retake the mid-band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- AUD/NZD depreciates as New Zealand’s Trade Deficit narrowed to NZD 2.28 billion YoY in October from NZD 2.39 billion.
- The New Zealand Dollar could struggle due to the increased likelihood of the RBNZ rate cut next week.
- S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in November from 49.7 prior.
AUD/NZD loses ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives support after the release of New Zealand’s Trade Balance data, which indicated that the Trade Deficit narrowed to NZD 2.28 billion year-over-year in October from NZD 2.39 billion. Exports rose 16% to NZD 6.5 billion, while Imports rose 11% to NZD 8.0 billion.
However, the downside of the AUD/NZD cross could be restrained as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could face challenges due to the prevailing sentiment that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a rate cut next week. After a surprise cut by 50 basis points (bps) last month, the New Zealand central bank is expected to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 bps to 2.25% at its November meeting next week.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support as Australia's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 51.6 in November, from 49.7 prior. Meanwhile, Services PMI rose to 52.7 in November from the previous reading of 52.5, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.6 in November versus 52.1 prior.
The AUD also finds support as expectations grow for a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Minutes from the RBA’s November meeting indicated the central bank may keep rates unchanged for an extended period if economic data continues to outperform.
RBNZ FAQs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
- EUR/GBP weakens to near 0.8815 in Friday’s early European session.
- The BoE is expected to cut interest rates in December.
- The ECB’s cautious tone could support the Euro against the Pound Sterling.
The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory around 0.8815 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) despite growing expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at its next monetary policy meeting in December. Traders await the flash Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data later on Friday. Also, the flash UK S&P Global PMI and Retail Sales reports will be released.
Heightened speculation of an interest rate cut by the BoE at its next monetary policy meeting in December and UK fiscal concerns could weigh on the GBP and act as a tailwind for the cross. Traders boosted expectations for a BoE rate cut next month. Interest rate swaps data showed an 87% chance in favor of a fourth and final BoE rate reduction for the year, up from 76% last week, according to Reuters.
Additionally, uncertainty and pessimism surrounding the UK's autumn budget could weaken sentiment towards the Pound Sterling against the Euro. The UK government's Autumn Budget is scheduled for November 26 and is likely to influence the decision to wait, as the BoE awaits more clarity on its potential impact on the economy.
Traders will take more cues from the UK Retail Sales report. Any signs of hotter-than-expected inflation in the UK economy could lift the GBP against the EUR in the near term. The UK Retail Sales are expected to stay at 0% in October, compared to 0.5% in the previous reading.
The cautious remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) might also underpin the EUR. The ECB is widely anticipated to leave the key interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows. ECB Governing Council Gabriel Makhlouf said on Thursday that the current monetary policy is appropriate and any adjustment is unlikely, unless there is a material change.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Japanese Yen stalls its recent slide amid intervention fears and reviving safe-haven demand.
- Fiscal concerns and BoJ rate hike uncertainty might keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the JPY.
- Less dovish Fed expectations favor the USD bulls and also lend some support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart through the Asian session on Friday, though the upside remains capped amid concerns about Japan's ailing fiscal position. Comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama fueled speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY weakness. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets is seen underpinning the safe-haven JPY.
Meanwhile, Japan’s cabinet approves a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus package, adding to worries about the supply of new government debt. Moreover, growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would further delay raising interest rates contributes to capping the gains for the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) preserves its recent gains to the highest level since late May amid less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and lends support to the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen sticks to gains as intervention fears and softer risk tone offset fiscal concerns
- Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, in the strongest warning to date, said on Friday that we will take appropriate action as needed against excess volatility and disorderly market moves, including those in the long term. Katayama also signaled chances of currency intervention, providing a modest lift to the Japanese Yen during the Asian session.
- Earlier today, Japan's Statistics Bureau reported that National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core gauge (excluding Fresh Food) rose by 3.0% in October from a year earlier. Further details revealed that core CPI (ex Fresh Food and Energy), which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, arrived at 3.1% YoY compared to a 3.0% increase in September.
- The data suggests that inflation in Japan remains sticky above the central bank's 2% target and keeps alive hopes for a near-term interest rate hike. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the JPY weakness is increasingly feeding into import costs and consumer inflation, adding that currency swings have a bigger impact than in the past.
- A Reuters poll showed on Thursday that a slim majority of economists expect the BoJ to raise rates to 0.75% in December, with all forecasters seeing at least that level by the end of Q1 2026. However, the BoJ rate hike uncertainty persists amid Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies and her preference for interest rates to stay low.
- Japan's cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, the first significant policy initiative under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The package contains ¥17.7 trillion in general account outlays, which exceeds the previous year's ¥13.9 trillion and represents the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include tax cuts totaling ¥2.7 trillion.
- Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday, which showed that the economy added 119,000 new jobs in September. The reading surpassed the market expectation of 50,000 and followed the 4,000 decrease (revised from +22,000) in August. The Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.4% from 4.3%.
- Nevertheless, the data eased market concerns about a softening US labor market and further dampened bets for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. The less dovish Fed expectations assists the US Dollar to preserve its strong weekly gains, to the highest level since late May, and should contribute to limiting losses for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions and holding back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the USD/JPY pair. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further appreciating move.
In the meantime, any corrective slide might now find decent support just below the 157.00 mark ahead of the 156.65-156.60 region, below which the USD/JPY pair could fall towards the 156.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which, if broken, should pave the way for deeper losses.
On the flip side, the 158.00 mark could act as an immediate hurdle, above which the USD/JPY pair could climb to the next relevant resistance near mid-158.00s. The momentum could extend further and allow spot prices to aim towards testing the January swing high, around the 159.00 neighborhood.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- USD/CHF ticks down to near 0.8040 as the US Dollar struggles to extend its upside.
- Fed’s Hammack stated that the US NFP data for September was a “bit stale”.
- Investors await SNB Maryin Schlegel’s speech at 12:40 GMT.
The USD/CHF pair retraces to near 0.8040 during the late Asian trading session on Friday from its weekly high of 0.8078 posted the previous day. The Swiss Franc pair struggles to extend its upside move as THE rally in the US Dollar (USD) halts after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September on Thursday.
The US Dollar had a strong run-up as traders pared bets supporting an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its December policy meeting.
At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly around 100.15 after revisiting an over five-month high of 100.65 the previous day.
The US NFP data showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% against expectations and the prior release of 4.3%, and employers laid off 4K workers in August. However, job creation in September remained robust as the economy added a fresh 119K workers, beating estimates of 50K.
Theoretically, the impact of the US NFP data on the US Dollar and expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook remains significant. However, it is expected to be limited this time as the data belongs to September and not to October.
On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the employment data is a “bit stale” and stressed to focus on bringing inflation down. "Jobs report is a bit stale but is in line with expectations, while high inflation is still a real issue for the economy,” Hammack said.
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades firmly ahead of the speech from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel at 12:40 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to SNB Schlegel’s speech to get cues about when inflationary pressures will start rebounding after remaining significantly lower for months.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Last release: Thu Nov 20, 2025 13:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4.4%
Consensus: 4.3%
Previous: 4.3%
Source:
- Gold remains on the defensive as mostly upbeat US NFP report tempers Fed rate cut bets.
- US economic concerns cap the USD rally to a multi-month top and support the commodity.
- A weaker risk tone contributes to limiting losses for XAU/USD, warranting caution for bears.
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bearish conviction and remains confined in the weekly range amid mixed cues. Chances of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December declined further following the delayed release of the September US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) pauses its recent move up to the highest level since May amid concerns about the weakening economic momentum on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears and positioning for any meaningful depreciating move in the near term.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls seem reluctant as reduced Fed rate cut bets offset modest USD downtick and softer risk tone
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday, which showed that the economy added 119,000 new jobs in September. The reading followed the 4,000 decrease (revised from +22,000) recorded in August and surpassed the market expectation of 50,000.
- Additional details revealed that annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.8% YoY, compared to the estimates of 3.7%. This helped offset an uptick in the Unemployment Rate from 4.3% to 4.4% and validated less dovish Federal Reserve expectations.
- This comes on top of less dovish October FOMC minutes on Wednesday, which showed that members remained divided about how to proceed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December has now dropped to around 35%.
- This has been a key factor behind the US Dollar's recent move up to its highest level since late May and continues to act as a headwind for the non-yielding Gold during the Asian session on Friday. However, the fragile global risk sentiment could help limit the downside for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMIs and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Furthermore, speeches by influential FOMC members will be scrutinized for more cues about the rate-cut path should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the XAU/USD pair.
- Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he will negotiate with President Donald Trump on the US-backed 28-point peace plan that called on Ukraine to make painful concessions in order to end the Russian invasion. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and could further support the commodity.
Gold needs to decisively break below the $4,020 confluence support to back the case for any meaningful decline
The precious metal is holding above a nearly one-month-old ascending trend-line support, currently pegged near the $4,020 region. The said area now coincides with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below could make the Gold price vulnerable to weaken further below the $4,000 psychological mark and accelerate the slide towards the $3,931 support. The downward trajectory could extend further towards retesting the late October swing low, around the $3,886 region.
On the flip side, bulls need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,100 mark before placing fresh bets. The subsequent strength could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $4,152-4,155 region, and the momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the $4,200 round-figure mark.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Indian Rupee edges higher against its major peers despite cooling India’s private sector activity growth.
- Traders pare Fed dovish bets amid upside inflation risks.
- The US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in September.
The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts slight bids against its major peers on Friday after the release of India’s preliminary HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November. The Indian currency ticks up even as the private sector PMI data showed that overall business activity expanded at a moderate pace.
India's HSBC Composite PMI dropped to 59.9 from the final reading of 60.4 in October due to a slowdown in the growth of manufacturing sector activity. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.4 from the prior reading of 59.2, despite the government's reduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates across all product categories. Meanwhile, the Services PMI expanded at a faster pace to 59.5 from the former release of 58.9.
"The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI eased, though the improvement in operating conditions remained healthy. The rise in new export orders matched that seen in October. However, overall new orders came in soft, indicating that the GST-led boost may have peaked. Cost pressures eased considerably, and so did prices charged," Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, said.
On a broader note, the Indian Rupee has been underperforming, as the United States (US) and India have not yet reached a trade deal despite months of negotiations. However, they have stated that a bilateral pact will be announced soon.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump stated that he will reduce tariffs on imports from India “at some point in time”. Currently, Washington is charging 50% tariffs on imports coming from New Delhi, which includes a 25% additional levy as a penalty for buying Oil from Russia.
On the monetary policy front, market experts have become confident that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will reduce interest rates in its upcoming monetary policy in December. "On monetary policy, we expect the RBI to cut the Repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% in the policy meeting next month amid inflation undershooting the central bank’s 2%-6% tolerance range,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.01% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.06% | -0.06% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.06% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.10% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.15% | |
| INR | 0.13% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar remains broadly firm as Fed dovish bets recede
- The USD/INR ticks down to near 88.75 after the release of India's HSBC PMI data. However, the pair remains firm broadly as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto its week-long recovery move, driven by receding dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
- At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades calmly around 100.36, the highest level seen in over five months.
- Traders started paring dovish Fed bets as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members had been stressing to keep the monetary policy somewhat restrictive to bring inflation sustainably to the 2% target.
- The FOMC minutes of the October policy meeting also showed that many policymakers are not comfortable with the option of reducing interest rates again in December, as it would dampen trust of households towards the central bank’s commitment to bring inflation down.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 35.5%. Fed dovish bets accelerated slightly from 30%, recorded on Wednesday, after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September.
- The US NFP report showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% from estimates and the prior reading of 4.3%. Meanwhile, job creation remained robust as employers added a fresh 119K workers.
- After the US NFP data release, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the official employment is a “bit stale”, as it was delayed due to the government shutdown, and the monetary policy must be focused on reducing inflation. “Jobs report is a bit stale but is in line with expectations, while high inflation is still a real issue for the economy,” Hammack said.
- In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global PMI data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above 20-day EMA
The USD/INR pair ticks down to near 88.80 at open on Friday. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 88.70 continues to act as key support for USD bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds towards 60.00. A decisive break by the RSI above that level would trigger a bullish momentum.
Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 will act as key support for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high of 89.12 will be a key barrier.
Economic Indicator
HSBC Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and HSBC Bank, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in India This d by weighting together comparable manufacturing and services indices using official manufacturing and services annual value added. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Indian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Indian Rupee (INR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that the activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for INR.
Read more.Last release: Fri Nov 21, 2025 05:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 59.9
Consensus: -
Previous: 60.4
Source: S&P Global
- AUD/JPY attracts some sellers for the second straight day amid a firmer JPY.
- Japan’s CPI print keeps hopes alive for further rate hikes and benefits the JPY.
- Fiscal concerns cap the JPY and support the cross amid the RBA’s hawkish tilt.
The AUD/JPY cross turns lower for the second straight day on Friday, following a modest Asian session uptick to the 101.65 area and moves further away from a one-year peak, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 101.30-101.25 region amid the emergence of some buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY), though the downside potential seems limited.
Data released earlier today showed that inflation in Japan remains sticky and well above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target. This keeps alive hopes for a near-term interest rate hike and provides some respite to the JPY bulls. Moreover, comments from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama sparked speculations that authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency. This, along with a weaker tone around the equity markets, contributes to the safe-haven JPY's relative outperformance against the perceived riskier Australian Dollar (AUD).
Japan's cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan, the first significant policy initiative under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. This adds to worries about Japan's ailing fiscal position and the supply of new government debt, which led to a sharp steepening of Japan's yield curve recently and keeps borrowing costs elevated near the highest level in decades. Furthermore, Takaichi’s preference for interest rates to stay low continues to fuel uncertainty about the BoJ's policy tightening path and is holding back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets.
The AUD, on the other hand, draws some support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish tilt and might further contribute to limiting the downside for the AUD/JPY cross. In fact, Minutes from the November RBA meeting, released earlier this week, showed that policymakers were growing increasingly cautious over future interest rate cuts amid sticky inflation and signs of resilience in the labor market. The central bank also signalled that it would only entertain cutting interest rates if there was a material deterioration in the labour market.
This reflects a cautious approach amid the lack of clarity around the effect of the recent policy action on the economy, further dampening chances of interest rate cuts. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the AUD/JPY cross has topped out in the near-term and positioning for any meaningful corrective decline. Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to register modest gains for the second straight week, also marking the fourth week of a positive close in the previous five.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.14% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | 0.07% | -0.04% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.05% | -0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.10% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.07% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.14% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.08% | 0.07% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
