Forex News
- USD/CAD climbs above 1.3600 momentarily as the pair recovered early in the American session.
- WTI crude trades around $87, stabilizing after falling from a three-year high, which pressures the oil-sensitive Canadian Dollar (CAD).
- US CPI rose 0.3% MoM in February (2.4% YoY), reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious stance.
The USD/CAD pair is trading near the 1.3580 level, regaining its footing in Wednesday's American session after the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption from the Iran war.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $87 per barrel in a tight-bound range after reaching a three-year high of above $119 on Monday. This affected the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as it's being held back by the IEA news. The heavily commodity-linked currency has a symbiotic relationship with Oil.
In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% MoM in February, matching market expectations and accelerating from a 0.2% rise in January. On an annual basis, the headline CPI remained steady at 2.4% YoY, consistent with forecasts. This data supports the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to adopt a cautious policy stance as inflation persists above the Fed’s 2% target.
Statistics Canada will release its monthly employment report for February on Friday, while the CPI for the same month will be released next Monday. This could reshape the next Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy decision scheduled for next Wednesday.
Short-term technical analysis
In the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD is mildly bearish as the pair holds around the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) while below the 100- period SMA, which capped recovery attempts around 1.3600. The 20-period SMA is rolling over below the 100-period one, reinforcing a soft downside tone, while price action remains confined under both. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory but turned lower below its 50 line, indicating subdued bullish momentum and leaving sellers with a slight advantage on rebounds.
Immediate resistance is located at 1.3630, where horizontal supply converges with the nearby moving averages, and a sustained break above this area would be needed to ease downside pressure and open 1.3680 next. On the downside, initial support aligns at 1.3542, with a break lower exposing the next bearish target at 1.3525. As long as the pair trades below 1.3630, rallies are vulnerable to renewed selling into the moving average zone, keeping the short-term risk skewed to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- Silver declines on Wednesday, trading around $85.30 and down roughly 2.12% on the day.
- A stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields reduce demand for the non-yielding metal.
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran war keep market volatility elevated.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Wednesday, hovering around $85.30 at the time of writing, down 2.12% on the day. The precious metal struggles to extend its recent gains as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields weigh on demand for non-yielding assets.
The US Dollar strengthens following the latest inflation data from the United States (US). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% MoM in February, accelerating from 0.2% in January and matching market expectations. On a yearly basis, headline inflation remained steady at 2.4%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% MoM and remained unchanged at 2.5% YoY. These figures suggest that inflationary pressures remain moderate but still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target.
Against this backdrop, investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the coming months. This outlook supports US Treasury yields and limits the appeal of precious metals such as Silver.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar also benefits from liquidity demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Risks of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global Oil shipping route, remain a major concern for energy markets. Iranian officials warned that Oil prices could surge toward $200 per barrel if the conflict intensifies, while several shipping incidents were reported.
In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a decision to release around 400 million barrels of Oil from strategic reserves among member countries in an effort to contain surging energy prices.
The prospect of persistently high energy prices is fueling concerns about global inflation, which could complicate the outlook for monetary easing. In this environment, a firmer US Dollar and higher yields continue to cap upside momentum in Silver despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf now expects the Central Bank of Egypt to keep policy rates at 19% through FY26, postponing earlier plans for near-term easing. The bank still forecasts a 13% policy rate by end-2026, assuming conditions stabilise. Rising inflation, fuel price hikes and portfolio outflows are tightening financial conditions, although stronger FX liquidity and net foreign assets should help stabilise the FX market.
CBE seen on extended policy pause
"We now expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to hold policy rates at 19% for the remainder of FY26 (year ending June), versus our prior expectation of additional near-term easing."
"However, we maintain our end-2026 policy rate forecast of 13%, implying that easing is more likely to resume in the second half of the calendar year once conditions stabilise."
"These increases are likely to feed through to transportation and production costs over the coming months, raising the risk of further upside inflation surprises."
"This has contributed to renewed pressure on the EGP; USD/EGP recently traded near record official-market lows around 53, reinforcing the case for policy caution."
"This will likely help absorb portfolio outflows and stabilise FX conditions, supporting our view that the easing cycle will resume later in 2026."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY extends gains as the Yen weakens amid Middle East Oil supply risks.
- US inflation data meets expectations, reinforcing cautious Fed monetary policy outlook.
- IEA agrees to release strategic oil reserves as Trump signals Iran war could end soon.
USD/JPY extends gains on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure amid concerns over Oil supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war, as Japan relies heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 158.82, climbing back toward levels seen before reports of a 'rate check' on January 23.
Meanwhile, a resilient US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields are adding to the Yen’s weakness, with the Greenback gaining further support after US inflation data came in line with expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in February, matching market expectations and accelerating from 0.2% in January. On an annual basis, headline CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY, also in line with forecasts.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% MoM in February, slowing from the 0.3% increase recorded in January, while the annual rate held steady at 2.5%.
The data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a cautious policy stance, as inflation continues to trend above the Fed’s 2% target. Attention now turns to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report on Friday, which could shape monetary policy expectations in the months ahead.
At the same time, Oil-driven inflation risks tied to the Middle East conflict are shaping interest-rate expectations, as elevated energy prices could push the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, while expectations are also growing that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay further rate hikes.
A Reuters poll published on Wednesday showed that the BoJ is widely expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at the March 19 meeting, although about 60% of economists expect the policy rate to reach 1.00% by the end of June.
However, in an effort to stabilize markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release around 400 million barrels of Oil from strategic reserves, with G7 nations backing coordinated measures to ease supply disruptions.
Separately, geopolitical headlines continue to drive market sentiment. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the war with Iran could end “soon,” telling Axios in a brief phone interview that there is “practically nothing left to target.”
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.49% | 0.10% | -0.47% | 0.25% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | -0.28% | 0.11% | -0.25% | -0.82% | -0.10% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.28% | 0.38% | 0.03% | -0.55% | 0.18% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.49% | -0.11% | -0.38% | -0.39% | -0.95% | -0.25% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.25% | -0.03% | 0.39% | -0.57% | 0.15% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.47% | 0.82% | 0.55% | 0.95% | 0.57% | 0.72% | 0.68% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | 0.10% | -0.18% | 0.25% | -0.15% | -0.72% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.17% | -0.10% | 0.32% | -0.08% | -0.68% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
- NZD/USD falls to around 0.5910 on Wednesday, pressured by renewed risk aversion linked to the Middle East war.
- Rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns in New Zealand, strengthening expectations of RBNZ rate hikes.
- US inflation data in line with expectations reinforces the view of a cautious Federal Reserve policy stance.
NZD/USD trades lower on Wednesday, hovering around 0.5910 at the time of writing and down 0.38% on the day. The Kiwi remains under pressure as investors stay cautious amid persistent risk aversion in global markets, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The conflict involving the United States (US) and Iran continues to generate uncertainty across financial markets. Military operations in the region are ongoing, while the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global Oil shipping route, keeps energy markets on edge. This situation maintains strong volatility in Oil prices and fuels concerns about rising global inflation.
The recent surge in energy prices is also raising inflation worries in New Zealand. Market analysts expect domestic price pressures to remain more persistent than previously anticipated, reinforcing expectations of future monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are now pricing in potential interest rate hikes this year, marking a shift from last month when the central bank signaled that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) could remain around 2.25% throughout the year.
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher following the latest inflation release. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% MoM in February, in line with market expectations, after a 0.2% rise in January. On an annual basis, headline inflation held steady at 2.4%, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.5%.
These figures suggest that inflation pressures remain moderate but still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target. As a result, investors expect the Fed to maintain a cautious policy stance in the coming months. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets widely anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next meetings, although the probability of a first rate cut gradually increases toward mid-year.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand, which can intermittently benefit the Greenback. Comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting the conflict could end soon contrast with statements from US officials indicating that military operations in Iran are intensifying, leaving markets uncertain about the near-term outlook.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.11% | 0.51% | 0.16% | -0.39% | 0.37% | 0.25% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | -0.27% | 0.09% | -0.22% | -0.77% | -0.01% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | 0.27% | 0.36% | 0.05% | -0.50% | 0.26% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.09% | -0.36% | -0.35% | -0.89% | -0.15% | -0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.22% | -0.05% | 0.35% | -0.54% | 0.21% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.39% | 0.77% | 0.50% | 0.89% | 0.54% | 0.76% | 0.67% | |
| NZD | -0.37% | 0.01% | -0.26% | 0.15% | -0.21% | -0.76% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.25% | 0.13% | -0.14% | 0.26% | -0.09% | -0.67% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
- GBP/USD hovers around 1.3400 as US CPI holds at 2.4% YoY and core at 2.5%.
- Oil risks mount as Iran warns crude could surge to $200 per barrel.
- Fed easing bets trimmed to ~30 bps amid sticky inflation.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm during the North American session on Wednesday, even though the Middle East conflict entered its twelfth day of hostilities. Inflation in the US boosted the Greenback’s prospects, yet GBP/USD trades at around 1.3400, virtually unchanged.
Sterling steadies as markets weigh Middle East risks against steady US CPI
Market mood is mixed as traders digest the latest developments of the US, Israel and Iran conflict. Iran's military commented that the world should be prepared for Oil to hit $200 a barrel, after three vessels were attacked on Wednesday.
In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommended releasing 400 million barrels of oil to temper soaring prices amid the Middle East conflict.
Aside from geopolitical jitters, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February came as expected, with headline inflation rising 2.4% YoY, unchanged from January’s print. Excluding volatile items, the so-called core CPI rose by 2.5% YoY, as expected, aligned also with the previous month’s number.
Traders trimmed bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in 2026 following the CPI release, as depicted by Prime Market Terminal. Money markets expect 30 basis points of easing towards December.
In the UK, the finance minister Rachel Reeves said it's too soon to take measures to shield households from soaring energy prices spurred by the Middle East conflict.
The docket in Britain was absent, yet traders should note that Oxford Economics estimates the UK inflation could be 0.4% higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for up to two months.
This week, the UK economic schedule will feature a speech by the Bank of England Governor (BoE) Andrew Bailey. In the US, traders' focus shifts to Initial Jobless Claims, the Balance of Trade, and housing data.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3399. The near-term bias is mildly bearish, as the pair holds below the confluence of the declining resistance trend line from 1.3869 and the clustered simple moving averages around 1.35, which now cap the upside after being broken earlier. Price has also slipped back under the prior ascending support line that had been guiding the advance from 1.3035, signalling waning bullish momentum and leaving recent rebounds constrained beneath the former breakout zone. The steady deterioration in the Fed Sentiment Index over recent sessions reinforces a softer risk backdrop, which aligns with the pair’s inability to reclaim the broken trend confluence.
Initial resistance emerges near 1.3430, where the descending trend line now meets the underside of the moving-average group, followed by 1.3500 as a more significant barrier if buyers stage a recovery. A daily close above 1.3500 would be needed to negate the current downside bias and reopen the 1.36 area. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3360, the latest swing low, with a break exposing 1.3330 and then 1.3300. A sustained move below 1.3300 would confirm renewed selling pressure and leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper decline within the broader corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.44% | 0.49% | 0.00% | -2.30% | -0.69% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | -0.30% | 0.66% | 0.15% | -2.17% | -0.55% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.44% | 0.30% | 0.96% | 0.45% | -1.88% | -0.26% | 0.58% | |
| JPY | -0.49% | -0.66% | -0.96% | -0.46% | -2.76% | -1.15% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.45% | 0.46% | -2.32% | -0.70% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | 2.30% | 2.17% | 1.88% | 2.76% | 2.32% | 1.65% | 2.54% | |
| NZD | 0.69% | 0.55% | 0.26% | 1.15% | 0.70% | -1.65% | 0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.29% | -0.58% | 0.33% | -0.13% | -2.54% | -0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Isabel Schnabel, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Wednesday that they must monitor the persistence of the energy price shock in Europe and stay vigilant for upside inflation risks, in a speech at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Centre for Central Banking in Germany.
Key takeaways:
We must monitor the persistence of the energy price shock.
We must be vigilant to upside inflation risks.
Monetary policy remains in a good place.
March projections to partly reflect the Iran shock."
(This story was corrected on March 11 at 16:17 GMT to fix a mispelling in Isabel Schnabel's surname.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.37% | 0.14% | 0.49% | 0.16% | -0.45% | 0.35% | 0.23% | |
| EUR | -0.37% | -0.23% | 0.11% | -0.20% | -0.81% | -0.02% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.23% | 0.34% | 0.03% | -0.59% | 0.21% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.49% | -0.11% | -0.34% | -0.34% | -0.94% | -0.17% | -0.27% | |
| CAD | -0.16% | 0.20% | -0.03% | 0.34% | -0.61% | 0.18% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.45% | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.94% | 0.61% | 0.80% | 0.71% | |
| NZD | -0.35% | 0.02% | -0.21% | 0.17% | -0.18% | -0.80% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.23% | 0.13% | -0.09% | 0.27% | -0.07% | -0.71% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
French President Emannuel Macron said they will engage with several countries to limit measures to restrict exports, adding that there's obviously a need for a definition of military and political objectives in the war in Iran at a G7 leaders' video conference on Wednesday.
Key takeaways:
We will engage with several countries to limit measures to restrict exports.
There is no justification to lift sanctions on Russia.
It is obvious there is a need for definition of military and political objectives on war in Iran.
It will take a few weeks to coordinate Hormuz ship escorts.
Release of strategic reserves represents 14.5 mln barrels in France.
Government may decide further measures to cushion oil price increase for French consumers."
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.37% | 0.15% | 0.51% | 0.14% | -0.53% | 0.27% | 0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.37% | -0.22% | 0.11% | -0.21% | -0.88% | -0.08% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.15% | 0.22% | 0.34% | 0.00% | -0.67% | 0.14% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.11% | -0.34% | -0.35% | -1.02% | -0.23% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.14% | 0.21% | -0.00% | 0.35% | -0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.53% | 0.88% | 0.67% | 1.02% | 0.67% | 0.81% | 0.72% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.08% | -0.14% | 0.23% | -0.13% | -0.81% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.17% | 0.18% | -0.03% | 0.33% | -0.02% | -0.72% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose says Hungarian inflation has fallen back within target on core measures, validating the MNB’s earlier rate cut and dovish pivot. He sees room for further gradual easing conditional on continued price moderation and stable external conditions, and does not expect the easing cycle to weigh on the forint, which remains driven by global factors.
Falling inflation allows gradual rate cuts
"More importantly, our preferred inflation measure, which is calculated from month-on-month change of core price level (seasonally-adjusted), has now moderated to within target for most core inflation measures."
"The data now suggest that this may have been a temporary divergence – disinflationary forces are finally becoming more entrenched and broad-based."
"Of course, the latest figures provide justification for further gradual easing, with the pace and scale of future cuts dependent on the continued moderation of price pressures and the stability of the external environment."
"We do not anticipate a negative impact of rate cuts on the forint even in the medium-term because the easing cycle is fundamentally backed by inflation improvement."
"In any case, more significant global developments have been driving HUF movements over the past week and a softer CPI print did not stand in the way of the currency’s rebound yesterday."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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