Forex News
- The US Dollar trades under pressure on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions weigh on safe-haven demand.
- A hawkish Fed outlook and resilient US economy continue to underpin the Greenback.
- Technically, the DXY remains above key moving averages, although momentum indicators suggest bullish momentum is easing.
The US Dollar (USD) trades on the back foot against its major peers on Monday as traders trim safe-haven positions amid improving market sentiment after the United States and Iran agreed on a framework peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.57 at the time of writing after slipping to a one-week low near 99.38 earlier in the day.
The downside in the Greenback appears limited in the near term as traders remain reluctant to place aggressive bearish bets before the final agreement is formally signed on Friday.
Meanwhile, markets are also awaiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
What's next for the US Dollar?
Even as geopolitical tensions ease and Oil prices move lower, the US Dollar is likely to remain supported by a hawkish Fed outlook.
Before the war, markets were expecting at least two Fed rate cuts this year. However, that outlook has shifted as the inflationary impact of higher energy prices pushed inflation sharply higher in recent months, prompting traders to price in the possibility of a rate hike by year-end.
While a further decline in Oil prices could lead markets to scale back those rate-hike expectations, the Fed is unlikely to resume rate cuts until inflation shows clearer signs of moving back toward the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, a stabilizing labor market and resilient economic activity give policymakers room to keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period.
On the other hand, any setback in the peace process or renewed tensions in the Middle East could revive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
Technical analysis:
The near-term bias is constructive as the DXY holds clearly above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting a supportive underlying trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back toward the mid-50s, hinting at a consolidative pause rather than outright exhaustion, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) drifts toward the signal line with a fading positive profile, indicating moderating bullish momentum rather than a clear reversal.
On the downside, immediate support is now reinforced by the recent price pivot at 99.50, with the 50-day SMA at 98.88 offering the next cushion and the 200-day and 100-day SMAs around 98.70 forming a broader demand zone should a deeper pullback unfold.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the recent horizontal cap near 100.50, where a break would open the way for further gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.42% | 0.07% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | 0.13% | 0.33% | 0.25% | -0.15% | 0.36% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | -0.13% | 0.19% | 0.12% | -0.29% | 0.25% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.46% | 0.00% | -0.46% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.25% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.37% | 0.10% | -0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.46% | 0.37% | 0.52% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | -0.36% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.52% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.37% | -0.05% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- US-Iran accord reopens Hormuz, easing global energy supply risks.
- Weaker US Dollar supports XAU/USD ahead of Warsh’s first Fed decision.
- Falling WTI reduces pressure for further central-bank tightening.
Gold (XAU/USD) rallies by more than 3% on Monday after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their conflict, easing inflationary pressures amid falling Oil prices. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,351, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,218.
Bullion jumps as Oil rout cools inflation and weakens Dollar
Risk appetite improved, as depicted by US equities edging higher, while the safe-haven appeal of the Greenback weakened, dragged down by Oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.23% at 99.57, a tailwind for Gold’s price.
The US-Iran deal would end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin 60 days of negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Regarding uranium, the US agreed that Iran will dilute its highly enriched stockpile inside the country, with a mechanism for doing so to be discussed during the 60-day talks.
Newswires reported that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) would be signed on Friday in Switzerland, according to both sides.
Consequently, Oil prices are sinking, with WTI ─ the US crude Oil benchmark ─down 4.46% to $80.51 per barrel.
Last week’s US inflation figures for both consumer and producer prices remained above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, potentially prompting the central bank to take action. However, an end to the war might lead to maintaining current rates for the rest of the year, whereas last week, investors anticipated a rate increase.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision, the first under Kevin Warsh's leadership, followed by his press conference. Markets will be watching how he communicates, his approach to the balance sheet, and the stance he adopts as he starts his four-year term at the central bank.
Earlier, Industrial Production in the US slowed from 0.9% to 0.1% in May, but the upward revision in April, from 0.7% to 0.9%, indicated a Federal Reserve report that AI investment is supporting manufacturing activity.
This week, the US economic docket will feature Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold rallies, as bulls target $4,400
Gold price seems poised to consolidate, yet near key technical resistance levels as the US-Iran deal eased inflationary pressures and the need to hold interest rates higher-for-longer.
Momentum shifted slightly bullishly, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its 50-neutral level, an indication that sellers are in charge. Still, the index jumped from around 20ish levels to above 43, an indication that buyers are gaining momentum.
If XAU/USD climbs above $4,400, this opens the door to test the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,454. Above this area, the next stop is $4,500, followed by testing the 50-day SMA at $4,580.
Downwards, if Gold slips below $4,300, the immediate support would be the psychological level of $4,250. A break below and the next support would be $4,200, followed by the June 11 swing low of $4,023.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Trump says the Iran deal is signed and the Strait of Hormuz is open.
- Improved risk sentiment supports the Australian Dollar.
- Traders await the RBA policy decision for fresh direction.
The AUD/USD pair rebounds near the 0.7080 region on Monday amid improved risk sentiment following reports of a preliminary United States (US)-Iran peace agreement. At the time of writing, the Australian Dollar (AUD) rises 0.46% against the US Dollar (USD), hitting its highest level in a week.
US President Donald Trump said that the Iran deal had been signed and that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened. Trump stated that “the deal’s all signed” and added that the Strait is all opened, reinforcing hopes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could ease. He also noted that it was “important that oil is plummeting and stocks rising,” comments that supported market optimism and weighed on safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
The Australian Dollar’s upside remains limited ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision on Tuesday, with the central bank expected to hold rates at 4.35%.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7078, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7037 and recent horizontal support levels at 0.7072 and 0.7065. The pair is pressing into a nearby resistance cluster around 0.7082–0.7089, while the 100-period SMA at 0.7110 serves as a higher cap; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 60 suggests constructive but not overextended upside momentum as long as price remains supported above the aforementioned floors.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7082, followed by 0.7089, with the 100-period SMA at 0.7110 acting as a more significant barrier that would need to be reclaimed to open a stronger advance. On the downside, immediate support is aligned at 0.7072, ahead of 0.7065, while a deeper pullback toward the 20-period SMA at 0.7037 would still leave the broader four-hour structure mildly constructive unless that moving average gives way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that the Iran deal had been signed, adding that the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened and that Oil prices were falling while stocks were rising. The President made the statement shortly after arriving in Evian, France, for a G7 meeting.
Key takeaways:
The deal’s all signed.
Strait all opened.
Strait completely opened on Friday.
Important that oil is plummeting and stocks rising.
Will not have a nuclear weapon.
Will have strong policing.
Hopefully going to be a good relationship.
I may be involved, I may not on Iran signing.
Vance will be coming for signing.
Will release Iran deal text sometime after Friday.
Text will come sometime in the very near future.
No sanctions relief for Iran until they do what they are supposed to do.
Allies: Don’t think we’re going to need much help but not a bad idea.
Do want to see if we can straighten out Lebanon.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.49% | -0.02% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.33% | 0.28% | -0.19% | 0.29% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | -0.13% | 0.19% | 0.14% | -0.34% | 0.18% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.02% | -0.49% | -0.04% | -0.42% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.28% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.45% | -0.01% | -0.40% | |
| AUD | 0.49% | 0.19% | 0.34% | 0.49% | 0.45% | 0.49% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.02% | -0.29% | -0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% | -0.49% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.12% | 0.25% | 0.42% | 0.40% | -0.11% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
BNY’s Bob Savage reports that the U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced immediate energy supply risks. This geopolitical de-escalation has lowered energy market stress and helped calm inflation concerns. While the backdrop is more positive for Oil, markets still weigh central bank policy, global growth trends and capital flow dynamics.
Energy risk premium compresses
"Markets have rallied sharply following the announcement of a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."
"This has reduced the immediate energy supply risks and supported a broad risk-on move across equities, bonds and currencies."
"The U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have reduced energy market stress, boosted equities and calmed inflation concerns."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD holds firm as the US-Iran peace deal reduces safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
- Lower Oil prices improve the outlook for the energy-dependent Eurozone economy.
- Investors turn their focus to the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday.
EUR/USD holds firm on Monday as the US-Iran peace deal boosts risk appetite, reducing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1598 after hitting an intraday high of 1.1662.
The US and Iran are expected to sign a final agreement on Friday, after both sides confirmed on Sunday that they had reached a framework deal to end the four-month-long war. The development has eased fears of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global Oil shipments.
The prospect of the Strait reopening helped push Oil prices lower at the start of the week. Lower energy prices are also seen as positive for the Eurozone economy, which remains heavily dependent on imported energy, providing additional support for the Euro (EUR).
However, traders appear reluctant to place aggressive bullish bets on EUR/USD before the agreement is formally signed, as details of the MoU remain unclear and the situation remains fluid.
A sustained decline in Oil prices would ease inflation risks and reduce pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy further after last week's 25-basis-point rate increase.
ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the central bank still sees upside risks to inflation and is prepared to act again if needed. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said policy settings are "still broadly neutral" and warned that "second-round effects from energy" cannot be excluded. Nagel also said the ECB is "keeping all options open" for its July meeting.
Attention now turns to the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Traders have fully priced in a pause, with the focus firmly on forward guidance and how policymakers intend to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.
US inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, though core inflation remained relatively contained at 2.9%. At the same time, economic activity has shown resilience and the labor market has regained momentum in recent months.
Against this backdrop, the Fed can afford to remain patient before resuming rate cuts, a stance that could continue to support the US Dollar even as geopolitical tensions ease.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- WTI falls to around $79.15, down 4.53% on Monday, after hitting its lowest level since March 10.
- Markets react to the announcement of a US-Iran agreement that paves the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Comments from US and Iranian officials signal diplomatic progress, easing concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil is falling sharply on Monday and trades around $79.15 at the time of writing, down 4.53% on the day. Crude Oil has dropped to its lowest level since March 10 as investors unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices following recent tensions between Washington and Tehran.
The decline comes after several statements suggested that a deal between the United States (US) and Iran is close to being finalized. US Vice President JD Vance told CNBC that authorities expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain “open toll-free in the long term,” while noting that several details still need to be resolved ahead of the planned signing later this week.
On the Iranian side, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei Hamaneh said that Tehran would take measures to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Oman and other countries. He also stated that the US would commit to granting Iran access to its frozen funds, while stressing that both sides would be expected to fulfill their obligations under the agreement.
The announced framework includes the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which nearly 20% of global Oil supplies transit. The prospect of restored shipping flows has eased fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy markets, which had provided significant support to crude prices in recent weeks.
However, some analysts believe that a full normalization of Oil markets could take time. According to Reuters, Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said that restoring Oil flows to pre-crisis levels could take several weeks or even months. In addition, damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East may continue to constrain supply in the near term.
Investors are now focused on the next stages of negotiations between the United States and Iran and on the practical implementation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which could shape oil market dynamics in the weeks ahead.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- US-Iran agreement boosts risk appetite, sending WTI sharply lower.
- Fed decision under Warsh may reset policy communication.
- Burnham by-election win could revive UK fiscal concerns.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances by 0.31% on Monday as risk appetite improves following an agreement reached between the US and Iran, which is expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva, Switzerland. Both parties announced the deal, a headwind for the US Dollar (USD), which has fared well amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary scenarios. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3436.
GBP/USD gains as peace breakthrough pressures Dollar and crude
Financial markets cheered Washington and Tehran’s decision to end hostilities as US equity markets soared while Oil prices tanked, with WTI falling over 4.40%. The Greenback, which has been closely correlated with WTI, is down 0.28%, according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, is at 99.52.
The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s said that the US Navy blockade of Iran will also be lifted, freeing one-fifth of the global total Oil production.
Last week’s US inflation data ─on the consumer and producer side─was still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal, which could trigger some action by the central bank. Nevertheless, an end to the war could open the door to holding rates unchanged throughout the year, even as investors expected a rate hike last week.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision, the first under Kevin Warsh's lead, followed by his press conference. Eyes will be on how he communicates, the balance sheet, and the stance he takes as he begins his four-year tenure at the central bank.
This week, the UK schedule will feature local elections, in which the main challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, is expected to win the Makerfield by-election, which would secure his place in parliament.
In that outcome, uncertainty about Burnham’s fiscal plans might push Sterling lower amid speculation about additional spending, which would pressure the British Pound lower, as investors would demand a higher premium in the bond market.
Alongside elections, the release of inflation and jobs data will be crucial ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday, in which the central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3430, keeping a mildly bearish bias as it sits below the latest simple moving average cluster around 1.3472 while clinging to an underlying rising trend-line support drawn from the 1.3159 area. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the 50 line, suggesting neutral-to-soft momentum, which hints that any rebound attempts could remain capped unless the pair can reclaim the nearby moving average resistance and break above the overhanging downward trend-line structure.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the simple moving average cluster near 1.3472, with the broader descending trend-line structure reinforcing a supply zone just overhead. On the downside, the rising trend-line from 1.3159 acts as the primary support area beneath spot, and a sustained break below this structural floor would likely open the door to a deeper pullback as sellers attempt to extend control in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.27% | -0.18% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.49% | -0.05% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.27% | 0.10% | 0.28% | 0.24% | -0.22% | 0.23% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.10% | 0.15% | 0.14% | -0.33% | 0.16% | -0.26% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.46% | -0.05% | -0.43% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.24% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.44% | -0.03% | -0.41% | |
| AUD | 0.49% | 0.22% | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.44% | 0.46% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.05% | -0.23% | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.46% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | 0.43% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.43% | 0.41% | -0.08% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- US Industrial Production missed expectations, rising only 0.1% MoM in May.
- BoJ is expected to raise rates to 1.00% on Tuesday.
- USD/JPY direction will depend heavily on the BoJ’s tone after the decision.
The USD/JPY pair trades with a cautious tone as investors digest softer United States (US) industrial activity data while positioning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision due on Tuesday.
United States (US) Industrial Production rose 0.1% MoM in May, missing expectations of 0.3% and slowing sharply from the previous 0.9% increase. The weaker reading slightly limits support for the US Dollar (USD), as it points to softer momentum in the industrial sector.
This data directionally confirmed the NY Empire State Index for June, which gave a reading a 5.7 that below both the consensus of 14 and the May figure of 19.6.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains focused on the BoJ as markets widely expect the central bank to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, which would mark Japan’s highest rate in decades.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 160.07. The pair is sandwiched between its key moving averages, holding above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.78 but trading below the 20-period SMA at 160.29, which leaves the near-term tone neutral yet mildly capped on the topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 45, hinting at a loss of upside momentum without yet signaling oversold conditions, suggesting consolidation rather than an immediate directional break.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level around 160.03, followed by 159.99 and 159.89, with the 100-period SMA reinforcing a deeper cushion near 159.78. On the topside, immediate resistance comes in at the horizontal barrier around 160.16, ahead of the 20-period SMA at 160.29; a sustained move above this cluster would be needed to reopen the path toward a more constructive bullish bias on USD/JPY.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- The New Zealand Dollar gains ground as easing tensions between the US and Iran improve market sentiment.
- The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drives Oil prices lower and eases global inflation concerns.
- Investors now await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later this week.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5840 at the time of writing on Monday, up 0.17% on the day. The pair benefits from broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness as markets welcome news of a framework agreement between the United States (US) and Iran aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries.
The improvement in risk sentiment follows comments from US President Donald Trump, who said that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened as part of the agreement. Iranian authorities also confirmed the development, while officials from both sides indicated that a memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. According to US media reports, the ceasefire that has been in place since April will be extended to allow further negotiations.
This geopolitical easing is weighing on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) starts the week on the defensive and falls toward the 99.50 area. At the same time, Crude Oil prices tumble, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declining by nearly 5% on the day as investors anticipate a normalization of global energy flows following the announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains resilient despite disappointing domestic economic data. The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 47.5 in May from a revised 48.7 previously, marking a fourth consecutive month of contraction in the services sector. Meanwhile, the Composite Index declined to 48.4, its lowest level since June 2025, confirming a broader slowdown in New Zealand’s economy.
However, continued weakness in the Greenback is helping support NZD/USD. Investors believe that a less tense geopolitical environment could reduce energy-driven inflation risks, providing the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more room to maintain its current monetary policy on hold. Market participants are now turning their attention to the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, focusing on updated economic projections and guidance regarding the future path of interest rates.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | -0.21% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.38% | -0.13% | -0.51% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.32% | -0.00% | 0.27% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | -0.17% | 0.13% | 0.14% | -0.19% | 0.11% | -0.32% | |
| JPY | 0.10% | -0.30% | -0.13% | 0.04% | -0.30% | -0.06% | -0.45% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.32% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.32% | -0.09% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.32% | 0.27% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | -0.27% | -0.11% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.27% | -0.42% | |
| CHF | 0.51% | 0.14% | 0.32% | 0.45% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
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