Forex News
- GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3600 in Monday’s early European session.
- The BoE maintained the interest rate at 3.75% last week but delivered a hawkish hold.
- An Iranian official warned that Trump’s Hormuz mission will violate the ceasefire.
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength around 1.3600 during the early European session on Monday. Signals from the Bank of England (BoE) that suggest a potential shift toward higher interest rates later this year underpin the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). The US employment report for April will be in the spotlight later on Friday.
The UK central bank held the bank rate steady at 3.75% as widely expected, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of "forceful tightening" if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation.
Nonetheless, uncertainty in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz could support the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair. US President Donald Trump said the US will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday. Top Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said that any US interference in the Strait will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
Traders brace for the US employment report for April later on Friday. The US economy is estimated to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period. Any signs of weakening in the US labor market could weigh on the USD against the GBP.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/JPY may fall toward the initial support at the 10-week low around 181.87.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 38.75 signals bearish momentum.
- The primary resistance lies at the 50-day EMA at 184.98.
EUR/JPY holds losses after paring its daily losses, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath both the 50-day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
The EUR/JPY cross has retreated from recent highs while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.75 leans toward bearish momentum, hinting that rallies may struggle while price remains capped below this confluence of overhead averages.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may navigate the region around the initial support, around the 10-week low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by nearly a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.
The EUR/JPY cross may advance to find the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA of 184.98, followed by the nine-day EMA at 185.44. A sustained break above the medium- and short-term averages would revive the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.19% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.31% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | -0.05% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.02% | -0.23% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.20% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.19% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.07% | 0.10% | -0.28% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.31% | 0.23% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.34% | 0.28% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/INR steadies as traders assess progress in US–Iran talks amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
- Indian Rupee may gain support from improved sentiment and easing oil prices.
- Focus is on the four-state election results, with Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing.
USD/INR loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 94.90 during the Asian hours on Monday, following the release of India’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index came in at 54.7 in April, revised down from the preliminary 55.9 but higher than 53.9 in the prior month. Both output and new orders continued to expand, though growth remained subdued relative to levels seen over the past three-and-a-half years.
Traders evaluate progress in the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations. The Indian Rupee (INR) may find some support from improved market sentiment as mediation efforts to end the war have continued, as the conflict in Iran enters its third month. Iran said it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest 14-point proposal, boosting optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Trump suggested that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.
The INR may also face fewer challenges as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.30 per barrel at the time of writing. It is important to note that India is a major oil importer, and cheaper oil reduces US Dollar demand by oil companies.
Crude oil prices struggled after a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicated that Donald Trump said the United States would begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.
The Rupee remains under sustained pressure, caught in a feedback loop of high oil prices that have dented sentiment, driven heavier importer hedging, and sustained dollar demand from refiners.
Elevated crude has also sidelined foreign investors from Indian equities. Portfolio outflows neared about $6.5 billion in April, taking cumulative 2026 withdrawals to about $20.6 billion, exceeding all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand, according to Reuters.
Indian equities opened higher on Monday, aided by softer oil prices, while key state election results remain in focus. Vote counting began across four major states, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing midway through his third term.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR eyes 95.00 near fresh record highs
USD/INR trades around 94.90 at the time of writing on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing neutral bias as the pair remains within the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish near-term bias. The alignment of shorter- over longer-dated EMAs hints at sustained upside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
The USD/INR pair may retest the upper boundary of the rectangle, aligned with the all-time high of 95.33, which was recorded on April 30. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.48. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.10, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.37% | 0.03% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | -0.03% | -0.24% | 0.09% | 0.02% | -0.27% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.23% | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.25% | 0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | 0.24% | 0.23% | 0.29% | 0.15% | -0.09% | 0.21% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.29% | -0.14% | -0.39% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 0.14% | -0.28% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.39% | 0.28% | 0.44% | |
| INR | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.21% | 0.09% | -0.02% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
- Gold drifts lower at the start of a new week, though it shows resilience below $4,600.
- Inflation fears fuel hawkish central bank expectations and undermine the commodity.
- The lack of any follow-through selling warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot through the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks follow-through and manages to hold above the $4,600 mark. Major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), have turned hawkish in the wake of concerns that energy shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would revive inflationary pressures. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
US President Donald Trump announced a plan to guide ships stranded in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz under a project called "Project Freedom" and also warned that if this process is disrupted, it will be dealt with forcefully. Top Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said that any US interference in the strategic waterway will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Adding to this, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused the US of failing to honour agreements and said that renewed hostilities are likely. This casts doubt over diplomatic efforts to end the war amid a lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks and helps limit the downside for Crude Oil prices.
This comes on top of the US macro data released last Thursday, which indicated that inflation accelerated in March and reaffirms expectations that the US central bank could keep rates unchanged well into next year. Furthermore, the Fed's decision to hold its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% saw the highest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers voting against the accommodative tone in the policy statement. Adding to this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Kashkari also raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war.
The hawkish outlook, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) in attracting some dip-buyers following a modest bearish gap at the start of a new week, which is seen as another factor weighing on the Gold price. The lack of follow-through selling, however, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears and positioning for further losses. Investors now look forward to this week's important US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, for some meaningful impetus. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the precious metal remains to the downside.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Gold needs to find acceptance below $4,600 to back the case for further losses
From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line with a negative reading on the 1-hour chart and hints that downside pressure persists. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.60 is broadly neutral. Hence, a clear drop through the $4,600 mark, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from the April swing high, is needed to back the case for deeper losses toward the broader structural low anchored near $4,512.28.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period EMA at $4,650.47, followed closely by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,655.61. A sustained strength above this cluster would expose the 50.0% retracement at $4,699.88 and the 61.8% level at $4,744.15, ahead of higher barriers at $4,807.19 and $4,887.48.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week.
- The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for some upside in the near-term.
- A break below the 1.1650-1.1645 confluence is needed to negate the positive bias.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1700 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's retracement slide from a one-and-a-half week top.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting dips are being absorbed for now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 53 points to mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.
However, Friday's pullback makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1750 area, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing, before positioning for further gains. A subsequent hurdle is aligned at the recent cycle high area at 1.1847.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around 1.1692, followed by a key confluence zone formed by the 200-period SMA at 1.1648 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.1644. A deeper pullback could then target the 61.8% level at 1.1596, ahead of 1.1528 and 1.1441.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CHF struggles as the US Dollar weakens on easing safe-haven demand, with traders monitoring progress in US–Iran talks.
- Trump signaled Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short, expressing doubts over its acceptability.
- Donald Trump said the US will escort neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday.
USD/CHF depreciates after registering slight gains the previous day, trading around 0.7810 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid easing safe-haven demand, with traders assessing progress in US–Iran peace negotiations. Swiss SVME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.
Data released on Friday showed that Switzerland’s real retail sales rose by 0.5% YoY in March, falling short of market expectations for a 1% increase, after a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in the prior month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales posted a modest 0.1% rise, following a revised 0.1% decline recorded in February.
Mediation efforts to end the conflict have continued as the war in Iran enters its third month. Donald Trump hinted that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday. Iran has proposed setting a one-month deadline for talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending both the US naval blockade and the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.
Another Bloomberg report indicated on Sunday that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.
However, an Iranian official warned that US interference in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, adding that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders are likely awaiting the upcoming US employment report for April later this week. The US economy is expected to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00.
The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets.
US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.
On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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