Forex News

• GBP/USD advances for the second straight day as the USD retreats further from an 18-month high.
• A hawkish Fed and geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses ahead of the key US CPI report.
• Bulls await a trading range breakout before placing fresh bets and positioning for any further gains.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day, advancing to a one-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday amid the ongoing US Dollar (USD) corrective slide. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3275 region, up 0.15% for the day, as the focus remains glued to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later today.

Apart from this, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

In the meantime, the recent pullback in US bond yields from multi-year highs drags the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, away from its highest level since April 2025. However, bets for another Fed rate hike in December, along with geopolitical uncertainties, could limit losses for the safe-haven buck and cap any further appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, a move above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart backs the case for a further intraday move up. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive with the line above zero and the histogram expanding, which reinforces the constructive tone as long as the GBP/USD pair stays above the EMA support.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.78 flirts with overbought territory, hinting at strong but potentially stretched upside momentum. Hence, any further move up is likely to face initial resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3298, with subsequent hurdles at the 38.2% level near 1.3371 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.3429, marking a progressive barrier zone for further gains.

On the downside, the structural Fibonacci anchor around 1.3181, where buyers could look to reassert the broader recovery, could provide immediate support to the GBP/USD pair. A convincing break below, however, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the downfall from the August monthly swing high near 1.3675.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

• Gold steadies above $4,150 as USD extends its retracement slide from an 18-month high.
• Oil-driven inflation risks lift Fed rate hike bets, which should cap the non-yielding bullion.
• Traders also opt to wait for the latest US inflation figures and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.

Gold (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, holding above $4,150 as traders now look forward to the latest US inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due for release later today, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Apart from this, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in driving the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

In the meantime, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are assigning a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. The bets were lifted by the recent hawkish comments from influential FOMC members, signaling openness to additional interest rate hikes before the end of the year amid persistent price pressures. Moreover, worries about energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further Fed tightening, which might continue to act as a headwind for gold. In fact, crude oil prices rose to a nearly two-week top amid supply concerns due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

Fighting between the Iran-allied Houthis and Saudi Arabia has intensified over the past week in retaliation for the kingdom's support of ‌Yemeni government forces. Moreover, Houthi energy terminals and fuel reserves in Yemen were reportedly struck by a Saudi-led coalition. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran also continued to simmer amid the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, US Central Command rejected claims by the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy that the strategic waterway is under Iran’s control and that any approaching US Navy warships would be sunk. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play.

The USD, however, drifts lower for the second straight day, retreating further from its highest level since April 2025 and offering some support to gold. That said, the aforementioned bearish fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying and a breakout through a short-term trading range held over the past two weeks or so before positioning for any meaningful upside for the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

Barring last week's knee-jerk fall to a two-month low, the range-bound price action might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a decline from the August swing high. The Gold price, however, holds just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,115, suggesting a tentative floor. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory with a slightly contracting bearish histogram that hints at fading downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 points to neutral momentum, reinforcing the idea of consolidation within a broader corrective phase rather than a fresh bullish leg.

Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to face stiff resistance at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at $4,193. This is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, near the $4,215-$4,220 region, and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,238, with further barriers seen at $4,325, corresponding to the 50.0% retracement level. Above these, the 38.2% retracement at $4,412 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,519 mark progressively stronger supply zones. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at $4,115, ahead of the prior cycle low area at $3,957.83. A sustained break below $4,115 would likely open the door for a deeper slide toward that lower structural base.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• EUR/USD recovers further to near 1.1210 as the US Dollar corrects.
• Investors keenly await the US CPI data for September.
• The Fed and the ECB are expected to keep interest rates on hold.

The Euro (EUR) extends its Tuesday’s strong recovery move to near 1.1210 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trade on Wednesday. The major currency pair attracts bids due to the correction in the US Dollar amid the pause in United States (US) Treasury Yields’ rally remaining intact ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September.

10-year US Treasury Yields have corrected to near 5.20% from its recent multi-decade high of 5.36%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 102.10. The DXY has retreated from its yearly high of 102.61 posted on Monday.

According to estimates, both headline and the core CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.6% and 2.5% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively. Analysts at Societe Generale see the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook remaining largely unchanged even if core CPI rises to 2.5% YoY.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows traders are confident that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting later this month and will deliver a hike in December.

Meanwhile, French fiscal risks due to ballooning public debt and firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates unchanged this month will likely cap the upside in the Euro.

According to a Reuters poll conducted October 5-8, 70 of 73 economists expect the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1210, holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1303.

The pair continues to be capped by this dynamic barrier, which reinforces the broader downside tone while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.15 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure is still dominant but not yet exhausted.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period EMA around 1.1303, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the door to a deeper corrective bounce. On the downside, the October 12 low at 1.1153 is the immedaite support level; a decisive break below the same would expose the pair to 1.1100.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Silver gained as New York Fed President Williams signaled only one more rate hike before capping increases through 2027.
• The CME FedWatch Tool indicates around a 77% chance rates remain unchanged this month, but an 88% likelihood of a December hike.
• Oil prices rose as escalating conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels heightened Middle East supply disruption fears.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $59.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Wednesday. Non-yielding Silver gains following dovish remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Speaking on Tuesday, Williams noted that while he maintains his view that one more rate hike may be appropriate this year, he does not foresee additional rate increases in 2027.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are currently pricing in roughly a 77% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while assigning an 88% chance of a rate hike in December.

Market focus now shifts to the US September CPI inflation data scheduled for release later in the North American session, which could offer clearer direction on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path. Headline US CPI is expected to show a year-over-year rise of 3.6% in September, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, is projected to increase to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.4% in the previous month.

Geopolitical tensions remained a key focus as oil prices extended their gains amid escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels, intensifying concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions.

Energy complex stays resilient as tanker attacks escalate

According to TD Securities, “strength across the energy market is hard to shake as tanker attacks escalate,” underscoring the firm’s view that ongoing security risks are helping to sustain robust pricing across the oil complex rather than allowing any meaningful easing in market tensions.

Adding to the cautious global sentiment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of significant risks to international economic growth and financial stability. The organization highlighted threats stemming from a potential slowdown in the AI investment boom, mounting debt levels, and a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

AI and semiconductor demand stay resilient despite looming slowdown

Economists at DBS highlight that, despite a more challenging financing backdrop, there is still "limited evidence of a significant slowdown in AI investment or semiconductor demand." They point out that hyperscaler capital expenditure has "maintained robust yoy growth through 2Q," underscoring the strength of current AI-related spending. However, DBS also notes that this pace is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely, citing Bloomberg forecasts that growth is set to "moderate from 95% this year to 39% in 2027," suggesting a gradual normalization in the AI and semiconductor investment cycle over the medium term.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.20, extending a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair’s slide below these trend references suggests that rallies are likely to be capped by overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.87 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold rebound.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the short-term nine-period EMA near $60.21, with a stronger barrier at the 50-period EMA around $62.99, where sellers may reassert control if prices attempt a recovery. With no clear nearby structural support indicated, the metal appears vulnerable to further weakness until buyers can reclaim at least the $60.21 level, which would be the first step toward easing the current bearish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• The Canadian Dollar ticks higher against the US Dollar in the countdown to the US CPI data.
• According to estimates, both US headline and core inflation figures to arrive higher than August’s readings.
• Higher oil prices continue to lend support to the Canadian Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 12:30 GMT. In the Asian trade, the USD/CAD pair is marginally down to near 1.4200, as the US Dollar extends its decline.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 102.11. The DXY has retreated from its yearly high of 102.61 posted on Monday.

The US CPI report will likely to show that the headline inflation rose to 3.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in August. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is seen arriving at 2.5% YoY, higher than the previous reading of 2.4%. The inflation data is expected to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows traders are confident that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting later this month and will deliver a hike in December.

Strategists at Societe Generale highlight Wednesday’s US CPI release as the key near-term driver for Fed expectations, arguing that a move in core inflation to “2.5% (the market consensus)” would leave the policy outlook largely unchanged. In their view, such a print would imply “little chance of any shift in market expectations: no rate hike this month, but a very strong chance of one in December and another in Q1.”

On the Loonie front, rising oil prices due to continued conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis would keep lending support to the currency. The appeal of the Canadian Dollar improves in a high-oil-price environment, given Canada is net exporter of oil. The WTI Oil price has increased little over $96.00 from its six-week low of $86.32 posted last week.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.4203. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4163, suggesting that recent upside momentum is still supported by trend-following flows. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.0 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought levels, hinting that buyers retain control while leaving room for further gains before conditions become stretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.4163, which guards the latest advance and would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. While no clear resistance markers are provided by the current dataset, the prevailing structure suggests that only a decisive drop back below the EMA would weaken the bullish tone and expose USD/CAD to a broader consolidation or pullback phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• US Dollar Index weakens to around 102.15 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• Fed’s Williams still sees one more rate hike this year.
• The US September CPI inflation data will take center stage later on Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 102.15 in the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY declines following remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams.

New York Fed President said on Tuesday that he still expects one more rate hike this year, but sees no need for further increases in 2027. “I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike,” said Williams. “I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more,” he added.

Markets see about a 77.3% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting, up from 51% a month ago, while pricing in about 75 basis points (bps) of tightening by late 2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Traders await the release of the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for fresh clues on the Fed's interest rate path. Economists expect the headline CPI to show a rise of 3.6% YoY in September, compared to 3.4% in August. The core CPI is projected to show an increase of 2.5% YoY in September, compared to 2.4% in August.

"We have some inflation data that's coming out later this week. So market is kind of waiting to see how that plays out," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at StoneX.

If the reports show hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could reinforce the US central bank to hike interest rates and lift the US Dollar against its rivals.

Dollar underperforms as Fed tone softens and markets eye US CPI

Strategists at Scotiabank observe that recent communication from the Fed has turned less forceful, noting that “messaging from the Fed has been mixed but generally softening the intensity of the hawkish rhetoric in a manner that has delivered a clear moderation in tightening expectations overall.” They point out that “the market continues to price about 5bpts of tightening for October and 25bpts by December,” a shift that has fed into a weaker Dollar profile.

In their view, this repricing is increasingly visible in the broader Dollar indices, with Scotiabank highlighting that “the DXY continues to trade above our fair value estimate, with fundamentals that generally reflect the recent softening in Fed expectations and an overall (USD-negative) narrowing in interest rate differentials.” Near term, they add that the domestic data calendar offers little to challenge this trend, as “Monday’s US data calendar is light, and limited to existing home sales ahead of the top-tier CPI data scheduled for Wednesday.”

Williams downplays 2027 hike risks, supports softer Dollar tone

Fed’s Williams delivered a notably more dovish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 3.4/10, well below the 5.8/10 historical average and signaling reduced tightening bias. The explicit remark that there is “no need for rate hike in 2027” and confidence that inflation will slow “quite a bit” toward the 2% target next year reinforces expectations of a prolonged pause and eventual easing, a configuration that tends to weigh on the Dollar and support risk-sensitive FX.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 3.09 points to 133.86, marking a clear pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 threshold. This combination of a lower FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading and a weak FXS Speechtracker score indicates that while policy is still in hawkish territory compared to the established baseline, the marginal shift in tone is toward less aggressive tightening, a nuance the Dollar and rates markets are likely to price in.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot holds above both the 20-day simple moving average of the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bullish as price extends its recovery away from the lower band support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.47 suggests firm positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, hinting that buying pressure remains in control while upside appears gradually stretched.

On the topside, the next key hurdle emerges at the Bollinger upper band, currently around 102.95, which caps the immediate bullish scope and could trigger consolidation if tested. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at 101.50, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 100.40 and the lower band region near 100.05, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip buyers as long as the broader structure remains above these underlying demand levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that inflation has been rising predominantly but not exclusively as a result of energy prices. Lagarde added that she’s not seeing any second round effects yet.

Key quotes

Inflation has been rising predominantly but not exclusively as a result of energy prices.

We're not seeing any second round effects yet.

We cannot wait until they are in full view but we can anticipate, look for hints.

In Europe you see anticipation of wage increases through collective barganing arrangements, we're following those entry points.

Asked about French debt, the primary and first solution lies in French fiscal policy.

Growth is not brilliant, but 1.1% growth in 2026 is not bad.

Won't run for French president.

Market reaction 

At the press time, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.06% on the day to trade at 1.1205.

Lagarde flags energy-led inflation but downplays second-round risks

ECB President Lagarde’s 4.6/10 FXS Speechtracker score sits notably below the historic 5.6/10 baseline, pointing to a mildly more cautious and less forceful tone than usual. By stressing that inflation is predominantly energy-driven and that second-round effects are not yet visible, while still warning the ECB cannot wait for them to be “in full view,” the speech leans slightly hawkish on vigilance but stops short of signaling aggressive tightening.

Lagarde’s focus on anticipated wage increases via collective bargaining and the need for French fiscal policy to address French debt underscores a preference for targeted vigilance and fiscal responsibility rather than broad-based monetary tightening. The acknowledgment that Euro area growth at 1.1% in 2026 is “not brilliant” but “not bad” reinforces a balanced stance, suggesting limited immediate impact on Euro direction, with markets likely to interpret the speech as watchful but not decisively hawkish.

China's Trade Balance for September, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY905.97 billion, widening from the previous figure of CNY809.3 billion. The market forecast was for CNY805 billion.

Exports rose 29.6% YoY in September vs. 18.6% in August. The country’s imports climbed 24.6% YoY in the same period vs. 21.7% recorded previously.

In US Dollar (USD) terms, China’s Trade Surplus unexpectedly expanded in September.

Trade Balance came in at +133.53B versus +118.1B expected and +119.09B prior.

Exports (YoY): 36.3% vs. 25.5% expected and 25% last.

Imports (YoY): 31% vs. 24.5% expected and 28.2% previous.

Market reaction

AUD/USD is grinding higher to test 0.7000 following the upbeat Chinese trade data, up 0.21% on the day, as of writing.

(This story was corrected on October 14 at 2:47 GMT to say that 'Exports rose 29.6% YoY in September," not May)

• AUD/JPY holds gains as Chinese September CPI rose 0.9% YoY and PPI surged past expectations to 5.0%.
• The Japanese Yen struggles as BoJ officials are leaning against implementing a rare back-to-back interest rate increase.
• Traders remain on high alert as speculation grows that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the struggling Yen.

AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 110.70 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross holds gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stronger following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from China, Australia’s major trading partner.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that its annual CPI climbed 0.9% in September, up slightly from 0.8% in August, though coming in just below the market consensus of 1.0%. On a month-over-month basis, Chinese CPI rose 0.2% in September compared to a 0.4% increase previously, trailing the expected 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) surged 5.0% year-over-year in September, accelerating from August's 3.8% increase and beating market expectations of 4.5%.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the RBA’s latest communication carried an important message for FX markets. The central bank “expressed concern that a weaker AUD could contribute to elevated price pressures through imported inflation,” underscoring the currency’s role in the inflation outlook. Commerzbank also notes that, in the RBA’s view, “a rise in the global neutral interest rate could cause the AUD to depreciate if Australia’s neutral rate had not increased by a similar amount,” although the RBA “appeared to assume that it had,” suggesting policymakers believe domestic neutral rates have kept pace with global shifts.

Additionally, the AUD/JPY cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure following reports that Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials are leaning against implementing a rare back-to-back interest rate increase.

However, the BoJ is still widely expected to stick to its broader policy normalization path. Furthermore, traders remain on high alert amid ongoing speculation that Japanese authorities could step in once again to intervene and prop up the Japanese Yen.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU highlight that Prime Minister Takaichi reiterated in parliament that the US and Japanese finance ministers "are still in close contact on foreign exchange," noting that the Yen was raised as an issue at the latest US-Japan summit "in general terms." They point out that Takaichi also acknowledged that "the weak yen has both upsides and downsides," underscoring the policy trade-offs facing authorities. MUFG/BTMU add that the Yen has "remained at stronger levels since the joint US-Japan intervention in late July," which they argue "has proven effective at preventing further yen weakness in recent months."

• NZD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks strong follow-through.
• The recent pullback in US bond yields keeps USD bulls on the defensive, supporting the pair.
• China’s mixed inflation data fails to influence the pair as focus remains on the US CPI report.

The NZD/USD pair gains some positive traction for the second day on Wednesday, building on the overnight bounce from the 0.5580 support zone, or the lowest level since April 2025. Spot prices touch a fresh weekly top, around the 0.5620-0.5625 region, during the Asian session amid subdued US Dollar (USD) demand and move little following the release of China inflation data.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% in September from a year earlier, up from 0.8% in the previous month but lower than consensus estimates for a reading of 1.0%. However, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 5.0% YoY during the reported month, surpassing market expectations for an increase to 4.5% from 3.8% in August. The data, however, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair as the focus remains glued to the US consumer inflation figures, due later today.

Moreover, the US PPI is due for release on Thursday, which will be followed by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Heading into the key data/event risks, the recent pullback in US bond yields keeps the USD on the defensive below an 18-month high, set on Monday.

That said, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year, along with geopolitical risks stemming from escalating conflicts in the Middle East, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful upside.

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair needs to clear the 0.5630-0.5635 horizontal barrier, which nears the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, to back the case for further gains. The subsequent move up would ease the downside pressure and open the way toward higher levels. On the downside, the 0.5600 round figure, followed by the 0.5580 region, could protect the immediate downside. A break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for the resumption of the recent well-established short-term downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)