Forex News
China’s Retail Sales rose 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in October vs. 2.7% expected and 3.0% in September, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Friday.
Chinese Industrial Production increased 4.9% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.5% forecast and 6.5% seen previously.
Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at -1.7% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in October, missed the expected -0.8% figure. The September reading was -0.5%.
AUD/USD reaction to Chinese data
The mixed Chinese data dump has little to no impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.18% higher on the day at 0.6541.
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.66% | -0.00% | 0.37% | -0.24% | -0.78% | -0.93% | -1.57% | |
| EUR | 0.66% | 0.65% | 1.08% | 0.39% | -0.14% | -0.30% | -0.94% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.65% | 0.51% | -0.25% | -0.78% | -0.94% | -1.58% | |
| JPY | -0.37% | -1.08% | -0.51% | -0.68% | -1.20% | -1.35% | -2.03% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | -0.39% | 0.25% | 0.68% | -0.45% | -0.71% | -1.39% | |
| AUD | 0.78% | 0.14% | 0.78% | 1.20% | 0.45% | -0.16% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | 0.93% | 0.30% | 0.94% | 1.35% | 0.71% | 0.16% | -0.64% | |
| CHF | 1.57% | 0.94% | 1.58% | 2.03% | 1.39% | 0.80% | 0.64% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This section was published on Friday at 0:00 GMT as a preview of China's Retail Sales, Industrial Production data.
China Retail Sales, Industrial Production Overview
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for October at 02.00 GMT. Retail Sales is expected to show an increase of 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in October, compared to 3.0% in the previous reading. Industrial Production is projected to show a rise of 5.5% YoY in the same period versus 6.5% prior.
Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Meanwhile, Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk.
How could the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the China Retail Sales, Industrial Production data. The pair loses ground as the US government reopened and bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December remained pretty divided.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the October 28 high of 0.6590. The next resistance level emerges at the October 6 high of 0.6620, en route to the September 16 high of 0.6688.
To the downside, the 100-day EMA of 0.6515 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the November 4 low of 0.6481. The next contention level is located at the August 21 low of 0.6415.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.0825 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0865 and 7.0964 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Friday that the government is not in a position to set a new numerical target for the nationwide minimum wage, arguing that instead that its role is to create conditions that enable businesses to raise pay faster than inflation.
Key quotes
Hard to set numerical target for minimum wage now, government’s job is to create environment that allows for firms to offer pay that exceeds pace of inflation.
Since government set minimum wage target, have heard complaints from firms in regional areas of Japan.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.04% on the day at 154.60.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Japan's Economics Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Friday that a weak Japanese Yen (JPY) can push up CPI through import costs.
Elsewhere, Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that planned economic stimulus will be in line with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi administration’s proactive fiscal policy when asked about the size of the stimulus.
Market reaction
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.04% on the day at 154.60.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Gold price rises to around $4,185 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Markets are bracing for a flood of delayed economic reports that could signal a slowing US economy.
- Fed officials remain cautious about further rate cuts amid concerns about inflation.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,185 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal drifts higher as traders anticipate that the reopening of the US government will restore the flow of economic data and reinforce bets of further US interest rate cuts.
A record shutdown in US history ended on Thursday after Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government. The House of Representatives approved the bill earlier Thursday in a 222-209 vote, with nearly every Republican and a handful of Democrats voting for it. The expectation that US economic data released after the end of the shutdown will reveal US labor market weakness could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and lift the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
On Thursday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said that the government would publish the October employment data, but without the Unemployment Rate due to the lack of a household survey that month.
On the other hand, the cautious tone from the Fed officials could undermine the yellow metal. Boston Fed President Susan Collins used cautious language to express her opinion on policy, saying that it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Wednesday and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Thursday have also expressed a preference for holding rates steady.
Markets are now pricing in a more than 51% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point at its December meeting, down from 62.9% odds that markets priced in a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- GBP/USD saw fresh downside challenges on Thursday.
- Despite being long overdue for a bullish rebound, Cable bulls are unable to catch a break.
- UK PM Starmer is poised to waive off planned tax increases.
GBP/USD caught a brief bullish slant to Thursday’s trading window, with Cable traders brushing off a worse-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth print from the third quarter. However, late-day flows turned sour after reports broke that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is poised to cancel a batch of planned tax increases intended to help bolster the UK’s questionable financial position.
With the US government set to reopen, at least temporarily, markets are now looking ahead to the resumption of critical economic dataset releases. US White House officials toyed with the idea of declaring entire batches of inflation and growth data as “lost” during the government closure, specifically the October inflation and employment figures, which could never be released. A critical gap in key inflation and labor information is a prospect that is likely sitting poorly with investors who are eager to try and draw a bead on the chances of a third straight interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on December 10.
Despite a potential gap in the October data, September’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report is rumored to be getting prepared for a late release next week, and will serve as one of the last chances for the Fed to take a dipstick measurement of the US economy before its next interest rate decision. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in slightly less than 50% odds of a quarter-point rate cut in December, with around 90% odds that the Fed will blink and wait until January 28, 2026, before giving a third 25 basis point cut.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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