Forex News
DBS Group Research economists led by Mo Ji assess recent China data, highlighting strong external trade but subdued domestic demand across consumption, investment and credit. They note resilient exports, soft industrial production and weak Fixed Asset Investment, especially in property. Inflation is picking up via PPI while CPI lags. DBS now expects no 1Y LPR cuts over the next 18 months, with policy support shifting toward fiscal measures.
External strength versus internal weakness
"Although the US–China trade talks offered optimism over the trade outlook, the broad-based weakness in domestic demand remains a concern. Consumption, production, investment, and credit growth all stayed subdued in April. Higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions posed additional headwinds to growth."
"External trade momentum remained robust. Exports grew from 2.5% yoy in March to 14.1% in April, despite a moderation in March amid Middle East-related disruptions. Strength was driven primarily by non-US trading partners, while imports accelerated to 25.3% yoy, as manufacturers increased purchases of intermediate goods in response to stronger export orders."
"Investment sentiment remained tepid. FAI reversed from the brief rebound of 1.7% yoy ytd growth in 1Q to a contraction of 1.6% in April. Private investment extended its decline to 5.2% YoY."
"We now expect no cuts to the 1Y LPR over the next 18 months. Like other central banks including the Fed, surging energy prices reduce the likelihood of near-term monetary policy easing. The government is likely to expedite fiscal support to bolster growth."
"A resilient external sector and improving trade relations with the US could help stabilise overall growth momentum. Policymakers appear comfortable maintaining a targeted easing approach rather than pursuing broad-based rate cuts."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Burnham vows to keep Reeves’ fiscal rules, soothing Gilt fears.
- WTI jumps above $100 after Iran Oil waiver reports fade.
- BoE hike bets build as Greene warns on inflation shock.
The British Pound (GBP) extends its gains on Monday as political pressure over Prime Minister Keir Starmer increases. At the same time, Andy Burnham, the challenger to succeed Starmer, ruled out changing Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3414 after testing multi-week lows of 1.3302.
GBP/USD rises as fiscal-rule pledge offsets UK political turmoil
Market mood is mixed, as US equities fluctuate between gainers and losers. The US Dollar (USD) trimmed some of its earlier losses after a senior US official denied Iran’s media reports that the US had proposed a temporary waiver on Iran’s Oil exports. Consequently, WTI turned positive in the day, up by 3.21% with the barrel back above the $100.00 milestone.
Geopolitics continued to grab the headlines. US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social account that he would refrain from attacking Iran on Tuesday to allow a resumption of negotiations to deliver a deal.
In the UK, pressure on Starmer to resign increases following a dismal local election result for the Labour Party. Comments from Andy Burnham’s team are aimed at calming markets, which pushed UK Gilts higher, as Burnham is seen as someone who favors greater state involvement in key industries, workers' protection and further spending.
Money markets had priced in that the Bank of England (BoE) would raise rates at least twice this year, according to Price Terminal data.
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene was hawkish, saying that the BoE should not assume that Iran’s war-induced inflationary shock will be temporary and that officials should be proactive rather than wait for evidence of higher prices.
The US economic docket will feature the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy meeting, along with speeches by Fed officials and the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair on Friday. In the UK, the schedule will feature jobs data and speeches by members of the BoE.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3434. The pair is hovering marginally above a tight cluster of the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages around 1.3430, which collectively offer nearby dynamic support but do not yet imply a clear bullish trend while price remains capped well beneath the downward resistance trend line derived from previous highs and referenced by the break area near 1.3608. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 46 sits just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at a lack of strong directional momentum and leaving the broader bias neutral with a slight downside risk if the moving-average floor gives way.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the descending trend-line barrier around 1.3608; a daily close above this zone would be needed to ease the broader cap and open room for a more convincing recovery. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the compressed 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA cluster near 1.3430, and a break back below this area on a closing basis would expose the pair to renewed selling pressure and a possible return toward recent lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.82% | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.29% | -0.65% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | -0.56% | 0.31% | 0.19% | -0.03% | -0.38% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.82% | 0.56% | 0.87% | 0.74% | 0.54% | 0.16% | 0.50% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | -0.31% | -0.87% | -0.17% | -0.35% | -0.73% | -0.40% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.19% | -0.74% | 0.17% | -0.19% | -0.55% | -0.24% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.03% | -0.54% | 0.35% | 0.19% | -0.35% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | 0.65% | 0.38% | -0.16% | 0.73% | 0.55% | 0.35% | 0.33% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | 0.07% | -0.50% | 0.40% | 0.24% | 0.02% | -0.33% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, May 19:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls toward the 99.10 region on Monday as traders assess fresh geopolitical headlines and the upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve (Fed).
A White House official stated that United States (US) President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman on Friday, after the Senate voted to approve him for a four-year term, replacing Jerome Powell. Investors remain cautious as markets evaluate how the Fed’s policy direction could evolve under the new leadership.
At the same time, traders monitored new developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. Axios reported that Iran’s latest proposal was viewed by the White House as “insufficient for a deal,” according to a senior US official. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he has ordered a pause on a planned US military attack scheduled for Tuesday after appeals from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders.
Iranian news agency Tasnim stated that the US accepted a temporary lifting of Iran’s Oil sanctions during negotiations, while Tehran continues demanding the full removal of sanctions as part of any agreement. The mixed headlines improved risk appetite slightly and reduced some safe-haven demand for the Greenback.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.74% | 0.08% | -0.07% | -0.23% | -0.58% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | -0.54% | 0.28% | 0.14% | -0.03% | -0.37% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.74% | 0.54% | 0.81% | 0.68% | 0.52% | 0.16% | 0.45% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.81% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.69% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.14% | -0.68% | 0.18% | -0.15% | -0.51% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.23% | 0.03% | -0.52% | 0.32% | 0.15% | -0.35% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.58% | 0.37% | -0.16% | 0.69% | 0.51% | 0.35% | 0.30% | |
| CHF | 0.30% | 0.09% | -0.45% | 0.39% | 0.22% | 0.05% | -0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rebounds toward the 1.1640 region, benefiting from a softer US Dollar (USD) amid ongoing geopolitical developments and hawkish Fed expectations.
GBP/USD advances near the 1.3420 area amid easing safe-haven demand, pressuring the USD. Sterling also finds some support despite persistent concerns surrounding the United Kingdom (UK) fiscal outlook and political uncertainty.
USD/JPY climbs toward the 158.90 zone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens ahead of Japan’s preliminary Q1 flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release. Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara stated that authorities are watching financial-market developments, including long-term rates, with a “very high sense of urgency,” as elevated Japanese bond yields continue to fuel speculation about future Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalization.
AUD/USD rises toward the 0.7160 region as improving market sentiment and the softer Greenback support demand for risk-sensitive currencies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades flat near $102.30 per barrel, after conflicting headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the potential temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian Oil exports.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades neutral near the $4,559 area as the softer USD supports demand for the precious metal, while ongoing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East continues to underpin safe-haven flows.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, May 19:
- Australia May Westpac Consumer Confidence, RBA Meeting Minutes
- UK March Labor Market Data (Average Earnings, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate)
- UK April Claimant Count Data
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- Canada April Inflation Data (BoC Core CPI, CPI)
- US April Pending Home Sales
Wednesday, May 20:
- China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
- UK April Inflation Data (CPI, Core CPI, PPI, RPI)
- Germany April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
- NZ April Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance)
- Australia May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- Japan April Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance)
Thursday, May 21:
- Australia May Consumer Inflation Expectations
- Australia April Labor Market Data (Employment Change, Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate)
- Germany April Producer Price Index
- Switzerland Q1 Industrial Production
- France May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- Germany May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- EU May Preliminary HCOB PMIs
- UK May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- US April Housing Data (Building Permits, Housing Starts)
- US Initial Jobless Claims, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
- US May Preliminary S&P Global PMIs
- EU May Preliminary Consumer Confidence
- NZ Q1 Retail Sales
- UK May GfK Consumer Confidence
- Japan April CPI
Friday, May 22:
- Germany Q1 Gross Domestic Product
- UK April Retail Sales
- Germany May IFO Survey (Business Climate, Current Assessment, Expectations)
- Canada March Retail Sales
- US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered a pause on a planned US military attack scheduled for Tuesday after appeals from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) leaders. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that "serious negotiations" are now taking place but warned that the US is prepared to "go forward with a full, large scale assault" of Iran if a deal is not reached.
Key takeaways:
Have been asked by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates to hold off on our planned military attack of Islamic Republic of Iran.
Attack was scheduled for tomorrow.
We will not be doing scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.
Have instructed military to be ready for full, large scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in event that acceptable deal is not reached.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.71% | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.18% | -0.52% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | -0.54% | 0.30% | 0.12% | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.83% | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.19% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.30% | -0.83% | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.66% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.12% | -0.66% | 0.19% | -0.12% | -0.46% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | 0.02% | -0.54% | 0.29% | 0.12% | -0.33% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.52% | 0.35% | -0.19% | 0.66% | 0.46% | 0.33% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | 0.08% | -0.47% | 0.37% | 0.19% | 0.04% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that Asian Emerging Markets (EM) currencies have weakened as higher US real yields, a stronger Dollar and elevated Oil prices weigh on sentiment. Oil-importing currencies such as Indian Rupee (INR) and Philippine Peso (PHP) are singled out as most vulnerable, alongside Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) given its sensitivity to United States (US) yields and domestic headwinds. Authorities in India and Sri Lanka have already tightened import rules to protect foreign exchange reserves.
Oil importers suffer under Dollar strength
"Asian EM currencies bore the brunt of the dollar's strength, higher US real yields, and elevated energy prices."
"This was particularly true for the oil importers such as INR and PHP, which now face a double whammy of higher oil prices and rising US yields, coupled with currencies with domestic headwinds and sensitive to US yields such as IDR."
"The MSCI EM Currency Index closed the week of 15 May 0.9% lower, its worst weekly performance since early March."
"Compounding the pressure, the 60-day correlation between Brent crude and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has reportedly reached 0.55 — the highest since the index's inception in 2005 — meaning Asian oil importers face a simultaneous squeeze from a stronger dollar and a higher commodity import bill."
"India moved swiftly over the weekend to defend the rupee, tightening silver import rules and requiring prior government approval for silver bar imports, while Sri Lanka imposed a 50% import duty surcharge on private vehicles for three months, both citing foreign exchange reserve pressures."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 growth forecast to 9.5% from 7.6% after much stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data. The AI supercycle and robust exports are seen as key drivers, while private consumption benefits from government cash handouts and a tech-led stock rally. The bank expects the CBC to keep rates at 2%, but sees higher inflation risks from stronger domestic demand.
AI supercycle drives robust expansion
"We raise our 2026 growth forecast to 9.5% (from 7.6%) to reflect a much stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP print."
"According to the advance estimate, Q1 GDP expanded 13.7% y/y (2.8% q/q), the fastest pace since 1987."
"We expect AI-related demand to remain strong, driving Taiwan’s growth."
"That said, GDP growth may slow y/y in H2, with high base effects weighing on exports and GDP, especially in Q4."
"We continue to expect the Taiwan central bank (CBC) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2% this year, with the K-shaped economy acting as a constraint."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the volatility in Oil prices is affecting the forex market. Speaking to reporters after the first day of the G7 Finance Ministers meeting in France, she added that she is seeing speculative moves in the financial markets.
Key takeaways
Seeing speculative moves in the financial market.
Volatility in oil prices is affecting the forex market.
Told G7 we need to take action to correct global imbalance.
We need to address risks regarding Mythos.
Told G7 that we should be united against China's export control of critical minerals.
We need to closely monitor financial markets.
PM Takaichi told me to consider how to finance planned extra budget while mitigating risks.
G7 not considering coordinated action on bond selloffs; every country is responsible for its own market situation.
G7 finance chiefs' communique likely to include statement on pricing over critical minerals.
Will take appropriate action against forex volatility.
G7 will discuss specific steps over risks related to Mythos in the run-up to summit next month.”
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Alex Loo at TD Securities highlights that China’s April data were weak, with soft retail sales and falling investment, while exports and housing prices offered some relief. The bank expects Beijing to rely on targeted fiscal measures, especially infrastructure and consumer support, while maintaining a 4.6% 2026 GDP forecast and seeing the PBoC cautious on further monetary easing.
Authorities eye fiscal fine-tuning over shock
"We expect targeted fiscal stimulus from Beijing, especially on infrastructure investment rather than large-scale measures."
"We expect authorities to roll out more targeted fiscal stimulus which is more of a fine-tuning of support since Q1 GDP was strong."
"We doubt authorities have reached a stage of being spooked by the data and would prefer to stay more cautious on any large-scale stimulus rollout."
"Beijing is likely to boost infrastructure spending again to drive public Fixed-Asset Investments (FAI), building on the CNY800bn allocated from the Budget this year."
"Any big shift in fiscal stance is likely to happen after July when China gets the full Q2 numbers to reassess."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
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