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TD Securities’ commodity strategy team highlights that, after a five‑week reduction in Copper longs, speculators have resumed adding net length, supported by firm Chinese premiums, low arrivals and inventory draws on the LME and SHFE. While these factors could underpin further length additions, expectations of more Fed tightening may prompt quick position trimming if Copper fails to extend recent gains.

Tight physical market supports cautious length

"After a five-week unwind in copper longs, speculators returned to adding net length, with long exposure slightly outpacing new shorts."

"Physical conditions remained supportive, with premiums in China continuing to firm, as low arrivals and inventory draws across the LME and SHFE tightened metal availability."

"Middle East tensions kept supply risks in focus, although a softer CPI print helped ease macro pressures."

"These factors could support further additions to copper length, although expectations for further Fed tightening have yet to dissipate and specs may be quick to trim exposure if copper struggles to extend recent gains."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CAD advances around 0.3% toward 1.4060 after rebounding sharply on the 4-hour chart.
• Canadian annual inflation slowed to 2.8%, reducing expectations of further Bank of Canada tightening.
• Investors await the US ADP Employment Change four-week average as the US-Iran conflict supports the Greenback.

USD/CAD trades higher near the 1.4060 area on Monday, recovering from below 1.4000 as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens following softer-than-expected domestic inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also rises around 0.2% near 101.00, providing additional support to the pair.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% MoM in June, compared with expectations for a 0.2% fall and the previous 1.0% increase. Annual inflation slowed to 2.8% from 3.2%, slightly below the 2.9% market forecast.

Underlying price pressure also moderated. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Core CPI fell to 0.2% MoM from 0.6%, while the annual rate eased to 2.1% from 2.2%. The figures reinforced expectations that the BoC may not need to raise interest rates again, placing pressure on the Loonie.

The Canadian Dollar receives limited support from higher Crude Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading over 1% higher near $83.50 per barrel. Canada is a major Oil exporter, meaning stronger energy prices generally benefit the CAD, although Monday’s inflation-driven weakness is dominating the currency’s performance.

Meanwhile, the Greenback benefits from cautious market sentiment as the United States and Iran widen their attacks. Strikes affecting military targets, commercial shipping and water infrastructure have increased fears about Gulf shipping routes, regional energy supplies and access to drinking water. Further escalation could strengthen safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, although a sharper Oil rally may partially support the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

Looking ahead, investors will monitor the US ADP Employment Change four-week average. The previous reading stood at 19.75K. A further slowdown would suggest that US private-sector hiring is losing momentum and could limit USD/CAD’s advance, while a stronger figure may support Treasury yields and help the pair extend its recovery.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.4056, holding in a neutral-to-bearish configuration as it consolidates below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.4149. The Loonie's price remains marginally above the 20-period SMA at 1.4035, which offers nearby dynamic support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests momentum has recovered from oversold territory but lacks a strong directional impulse, leaving the pair vulnerable while it trades under the broader bearish cap of the 100-period SMA.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at 1.4066, the nearest horizontal barrier, ahead of a stronger cap at the 100-period SMA clustered near 1.4149. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4051, followed by a dense floor between the horizontal level at 1.4037 and the 20-period SMA at 1.4035, with a deeper cushion at 1.4029; a sustained break below this support band would likely reopen the lower side of the recent range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• The US Dollar edges higher as rising Middle East tensions boost demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
• Oil prices remain near a one-month high, keeping inflation concerns alive.
• Fed officials enter their blackout period before next week's policy meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher on Monday as heightened tensions in the Middle East drive demand for the safe-haven Greenback. At the time of writing, the index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.95 after recovering from an intraday low of 100.65.

US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday, "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" His remarks came as the United States carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran.

Tensions rose further after Reuters reported that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis had declared an immediate naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, raising fresh concerns over regional shipping and energy supplies.

However, diplomatic channels remain open. Reuters reported that mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in strikes to explore ways to revive the interim US-Iran agreement. Officials from both countries also signalled that they were still open to negotiations.

Oil prices saw sharp two-way swings as markets reacted to the conflicting headlines. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil trades around $82 after recovering from an intraday low of $79.48 and holds close to its highest level in more than a month.

The rebound in Oil prices keeps energy-driven inflation risks elevated and supports expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign around a 63% probability to a Fed rate hike in September. The possibility of tighter monetary policy, combined with demand for the US Dollar during periods of geopolitical tension, keeps the DXY supported.

The US economic calendar is relatively quiet this week. Initial Jobless Claims are due on Thursday, followed by preliminary July Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data on Friday.

With Fed officials observing the blackout period before next week’s policy decision, the Greenback will take its cues mainly from developments in the Middle East.

• Silver rebounds as buyers defend the key $55.00 support level.
• XAG/USD remains below the 100- and 200-day SMAs, maintaining a bearish bias.
• A break below $55 would expose $50, while $60 acts as initial resistance.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday as buyers defend the $55.00 mark after the metal briefly slipped below it on Friday, touching its lowest level since December 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $56.85, up nearly 1.50% on the day.

The metal, however, lacks strong upside momentum as Middle East tensions support the US Dollar, while energy-driven inflation risks keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations alive. Meanwhile, the technical outlook remains bearish, even as momentum indicators point to a slowdown in selling pressure.

Silver positioning pares back as demand signals soften

According to TD Securities, speculative appetite for the metal continues to fade, with the bank noting that “money managers have also reduced their long silver exposure, which will apply downward pressure on prices due to weakening industrial and investment demand.” This retrenchment in positioning underscores a more cautious stance toward silver as both industrial usage and investor interest show signs of cooling.

Technical analysis: Daily chart

XAG/USD remains well beneath the 200-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 stays below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest downside momentum, with the slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hinting at tentative attempts to stabilize after the latest slide.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near $60, followed by a stronger cap around $65. A sustained break above these levels would ease selling pressure and expose the 200-day SMA at $70.58 and the 100-day SMA at $72.24 as the next hurdles.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $55, with a loss of this floor opening the way toward the $50 zone, where buyers would likely attempt to stem deeper losses.

Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart

XAG/USD holds a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.94 and the 200-period SMA at $62.43.

The metal has bounced off recent lows but is still capped by a nearby horizontal barrier at $58, while the Relative Strength Index at 47 stays near neutral and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns mildly positive, hinting that the latest recovery is corrective rather than a clear trend reversal.

On the topside, immediate resistance stands at $58.00, followed by the 100-period SMA near $58.94 and then $60.00, with the 200-period SMA at $62.43 and the prior horizontal cap at $65.00 reinforcing a broader supply zone overhead.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of $55, and a break beneath this floor would likely expose the metal to deeper losses within the prevailing bearish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military. The post lands after a weekend that saw three American service members killed in Iranian attacks on bases in Jordan and Iraq, a ninth straight night of US strikes, and Tehran suspending its commitments to last month's interim deal. The shift matters because retaliation is no longer a decision to be taken but standing policy pre-delegated down the chain of command, removing the deliberation window every previous de-escalation has crawled through.

Trump on Truth Social: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Markets went into the weekend still leaning on pattern recognition, pricing a fourth patched-together truce because the first three always produced one, and that unearned calm is what this post punctures. With Tehran suspending the interim deal and retaliation now pre-authorised, there is no framework left to break, only a trigger waiting to be pulled. The US Dollar Index is trading the repricing live, bid from the European morning onward and pressing the 101.00 handle, roughly 0.4% off the overnight floor. With a reclosed Strait of Hormuz keeping Crude Oil and rate pricing pointed the wrong way for risk, the lean stays with the Dollar.

US Dollar Index 5-minute chart

• Burnham pledges fiscal discipline, but finance minister uncertainty lingers.
• WTI’s monthly surge keeps Fed rate hike speculation alive.
• UK jobs, inflation and PMIs shape Sterling’s next catalyst.

The Pound Sterling reverses course and turns negative on the day as Andy Burnham is named the new Prime Minister and reassures that he will stick to the fiscal rules set by the former Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who just resigned. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3425, after hitting a daily high of 1.3481.

GBP/USD slides as Burnham transition meets Oil-driven Fed risks

Sentiment turned upbeat, even though hostilities in the Middle East continued. Attacks between the US and Iran keep tensions high, keeping investors worried about a disruption in Oil supply, which the US Crude Oil benchmark, WTI so far up 21% in the month. This reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could increase rates by 25 basis points toward the end of the year.

In the UK, the new PM, Andy Burnham, said he would not take risks with the economy, appealing to the previous government’s fiscal rules set by Reeves, who recently resigned. However, he reiterated that he would take measures to reduce the high cost of living.

In the meantime, market participants would remain aware of the naming of the new UK Finance Minister, though rumours point toward Shabana ​Mahmood, an interior minister, according to The Financial Times.

An absent economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic left traders adrift to developments in the Middle East. But in this week, the schedule in the UK will feature jobs and inflation data, Retail Sales and the release of Flash PMIs for July, on their preliminary readings.

In the US, the Fed has entered its blackout period ahead of the July 29 monetary policy meeting. So far, investors had priced in a 78% chance that the US central bank will hold rates unchanged, but odds for the October 28 meeting surpassed the 70% threshold for a 25-basis-point rate hike.

This week, the US economic docket will feature the release of jobs data. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 18 are expected to rise from 208K to 212K.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical utlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3421, holding a mild bullish bias as it stays above the clustered 50/100/200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) group around 1.3377 and well above the rising support line drawn from 1.3159. The Relative Strength Index (14) at roughly 54 leans slightly positive without showing overbought conditions, suggesting room for further upside while the recent recovery phase remains supported by underlying demand.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the descending trendline barrier, with its key reference point around 1.3481, where sellers could attempt to cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the SMA cluster near 1.3377, ahead of the more distant ascending trend-line base from 1.3159, and only a daily close back below the moving averages would start to undermine the current constructive tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• DJIA slides roughly 100 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite advance behind a semiconductor rebound.
• The United States logs a ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran, yet hint of future talks carries the entire risk bid.
• Rate markets price a first Fed hike by September at roughly three chances in four ahead of next week's policy decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near the 52,000 handle on Monday, down roughly 100 points, while the S&P 500 adds 0.4% and the NASDAQ Composite climbs 0.9%, with all three coming off a losing week. The split tape lands on the ninth consecutive day of United States strikes on Iran, a bombing cadence that equity investors have evidently reclassified as background noise while they wait for diplomacy to reappear on its own schedule.

Nine days of strikes, one sentence of diplomacy

Sentiment turned by mid-morning in London after a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry told reporters that intermediaries are still exchanging messages between the two capitals and that negotiations could proceed where national interests allow. That single formulation was enough to underwrite the day's risk appetite, even as Washington extended its strike campaign overnight and Tehran kept up attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation ledger keeps lengthening all the same, with Houthi militants declaring a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday, a threat aimed squarely at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, and US pump prices back above $4.00 a gallon. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil nonetheless trades little changed near $82.00 and Brent Crude Oil sits around $88.00. The consensus desk view holds that the White House has no tolerance for a materially larger military footprint and that some form of negotiated outcome is inevitable, a conviction doing an impressive amount of load-bearing work for a Monday.

A semiconductor bounce the price-weighted index cannot catch

Monday's advance is a semiconductor story from top to bottom, which is precisely why the Dow is not invited. Micron climbs (MU) more than 3%, Advanced Micro Devices (ADM) adds more than 2%, Teradyne (TER) rises better than 5%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) gains over 4%, while the sector's benchmark fund recovers more than 1% after logging a third weekly decline in four. Microsoft's (MSFT) decision to deploy Advanced Micro Devices' new Helios racks across its Azure data centres, joining Meta, OpenAI and Oracle as early customers, supplied the day's catalyst.

The bounce is still happening inside a damaged trend, with strategists at Wells Fargo framing the chip complex as midway through a reality check and warning that recent technical deterioration raises the odds of a deeper flush toward long-term moving averages. The overnight tape made the same point less politely as South Korea's KOSPI shed 4.5% on heavy losses in Samsung and SK Hynix (SKHY). A price-weighted index with minimal chip torque is left to trade the war on its merits, and on those merits it is down.

The rates market is quietly pricing the other branch

Fed funds futures assign an 83% probability to a hold at the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, but the calendar behind it keeps hardening. A first hike is priced at 76% by the September meeting, moves to near certainty by late October, and December now carries a 41% chance of a second move into a 4.00%-4.25% target range. Not a single cut is priced at any meeting on the visible horizon.

The same war being shrugged off in equities is doing the pricing in rates, with the pump, freight and import channels feeding an inflation passthrough that a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) has shown no urge to look through. Equity investors are effectively long the diplomacy branch while the rates market prices the passthrough branch, and both trades cannot be right at once. The July 29 decision arrives with no refreshed economic projections due until September, which leaves the statement and the press conference to arbitrate.

A thin docket until the finale

The weekly calendar does the index no favours, opening with Tuesday's ADP employment change four-week average at 12:15 GMT, last at 19.75K, and initial jobless claims at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, seen at 212K after 208K. Friday brings the only red-band prints of the week, with July's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expected at 54.5 after 53.9 and the Services PMI seen at 51 after 51.2, followed at 14:00 GMT by June new home sales after a 7.3% MoM slide.

None of it is likely to move the index the way July 29 can, when the FOMC delivers its decision at 18:00 GMT with the statement and press conference to follow. A market that spends Monday buying a hypothetical negotiation while pricing a 41% chance of a second hike by December is carrying two contradictory positions into that room, and one of them gets marked down.

Dow Jones Industrial Average technical outlook

Resistance: The 52,400 area capped the session at Monday's high, with the mid-July congestion between 52,700 and 52,800 above it and the record near 53,300 as the final ceiling.

Support: The session low near 51,900 is the first floor, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average near 51,400 and the early July shelf around 51,200 beneath that.

Bias: Lower. The index has printed lower highs since setting its record near 53,300 earlier this month, the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index has rolled over from overbought to mid-range, and Monday's bid elsewhere rests on a diplomatic aside rather than anything signed. A daily close below the 51,900 area exposes the 50-day EMA near 51,400, and only a decisive reclaim of 52,400 puts the record back in the conversation.

Dow Jones 5-minute chart

• AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7000 after recovering sharply on the 4-hour chart.
• The PBOC maintained its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.
• Investors await the US ADP Employment Change four-week average after the previous 19.75K reading.

AUD/USD trades around the 0.7000 area on Monday, holding near recent highs after recovering from last week’s decline. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains supported by limited US Dollar (USD) demand, although rising geopolitical risks and slightly higher US Treasury yields are restricting the pair’s upside.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a fourteenth consecutive month. The one-year Loan Prime Rate, which influences most corporate and household loans, remained at 3.00%, while the five-year rate, commonly used to price mortgages, was maintained at 3.50%. The expected decision had a limited immediate impact on the Aussie, while the absence of additional monetary stimulus highlighted concerns about China’s uneven economic recovery.

On the United States (US) side, Treasury yields ticked higher, offering some support to the Greenback. However, the softer inflation outlook has helped cool expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increases, limiting the US Dollar’s recovery. Bond strategists continue to expect shorter-term yields to ease as markets reduce their rate hike bets.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also keeping investors cautious as the United States and Iran widen their attacks. Recent strikes have targeted military and civilian infrastructure, while attacks involving tankers and desalination facilities have increased concerns about Gulf shipping routes, regional water supplies and further energy-market disruptions. The risk-off environment could increase safe-haven demand for the USD and limit gains in risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

Looking ahead, investors will monitor Tuesday’s US ADP Employment Change four-week average. The previous release showed that private employers added an average of 19.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending June 27, down from 21K previously. A further slowdown could reinforce signs of cooling hiring momentum and weigh on the Greenback, while a stronger figure could support US yields and place renewed pressure on AUD/USD.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7002, holding a modest bullish bias as it consolidates above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6995 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6939. The clustering of price over these averages suggests underlying demand remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 indicates positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that dips may continue to attract buyers in the near term.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.7010, with a stronger cap just above at 0.7015, where a break would open the door to a more decisive advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.6998, followed by 0.6996, with the 20-period SMA at 0.6995 reinforcing this nearby floor; a deeper pullback toward the 100-period SMA at 0.6939 would likely meet firmer medium-term demand.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Rachel Reeves leaves the government as new Prime Minister Andy Burnham launches a cabinet reshuffle.
• Investors are assessing the future direction of the UK's fiscal policy.
• UK government bond yields move sharply higher following the announcement.

The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Rachel Reeves said on social media that serving as Chancellor had been "the privilege of my life" and wished her successor and the new government "the very best of luck." According to several UK media outlets, she declined an alternative cabinet position before returning to the backbenches.

The change comes as investors assess the economic priorities of the new administration and the direction of the UK's fiscal policy. The lack of an immediate announcement regarding Reeves' successor at the Treasury has added to uncertainty over the economic strategy of the Burnham government.

Markets reacted swiftly to the news. The yield on the UK 10-year Gilt climbs to near 5.050% at the time of writing, reflecting a higher risk premium demanded by investors. Meanwhile, Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under pressure, with GBP/USD falling 0.24% for the day to trade near 1.3420.