Forex News
- WTI price holds gains near $92.05 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Widening Middle East conflicts threatened to hamper a recovery in supply from the region.
- Prospects of more Russian energy hitting markets after a deal with the US have risen.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $92.05 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. WTI price edges higher after a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia’s airport in Riyadh. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding prospects for increased Russian diesel supplies and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said on Monday that it was dealing with another round of drone and missile attacks directed at Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Yemen's Armed Forces warned airlines, employees, and passengers that no Saudi airspace or airports are safe except Mecca and Medina, and urged against travel, according to Fars News.
Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s main airport over the weekend killed at least 16 people, including a US citizen, and wounded about 300. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost the WTI price in the near term.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an energy ceasefire and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. On Monday, US special envoy Jared Kushner said that a deal to allow Russian diesel exports is part of a bid to draw Russia back to negotiations after the failure of previous efforts to launch sustained talks to end the war, per Reuters.
Expectations of more Russian supplies could weigh on the WTI price. Trump said Friday that Moscow will supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market under a deal he struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a phone call.
“It's been a dizzying few days of headlines,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group, pointing to issues including Trump’s claims of an “energy ceasefire” as well as the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. “We are off to a messy start this week.”
Traders await the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.
Oil volatility fades but bond market stress persists, says HSBC
Strategists at HSBC argue that “one of the major factors behind 2026’s bond market shock has been the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran conflict.” They point to “this year’s overlapping movements between implied measures of bond and oil market volatility as measured by the MOVE and oil VIX indices, respectively” as evidence of how closely the two markets initially traded together. However, HSBC highlights “the recent disconnection between these volatility measures”: bond markets “have continued to sell off and remain choppy even though oil prices have settled.” The bank suggests “the initial leg higher in yields has created its own problems,” adding that “with hyperscaler debt issuance likely to remain massive, investors shouldn’t expect falling oil prices to be a silver bullet.”
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, the near-term tone of WTI US Oil is constructive as price holds above the Bollinger Bands simple moving average (SMA) middle band, keeping the recent advance broadly supported while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays in neutral territory after cooling from overbought readings seen in late September. However, the move is still capped within the volatility envelope, with the Bollinger upper band marking the next bullish objective and the longer-term 100-day simple moving average (SMA) reinforcing the broader uptrend backdrop despite the latest consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support aligns with the Bollinger SMA middle band at $91.60, ahead of deeper demand at the lower Bollinger band around $86.50, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on a more pronounced pullback. On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger upper band at $96.70 would reopen the path for a retest of the recent highs, while the price action holding above the mid-band suggests dips are likely to remain shallow as long as $91.60 continues to underpin the market.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its September monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key takeaways noted below.
Additional takeaways:
Some inflation upside risks already unfolded or emerging since August.
Some signals suggest financial conditions were just modestly restrictive.
Signs of tech-driven price pressures from AI boom emerging in Australia.
Middle East clash has intensified, oil prices exceed expected levels.
Increase in global neutral rate may weigh on Australian dollar if domestic rates stay flat.
Models of neutral rate imply policy is somewhat restrictive, neutral rate may have increased.
House prices dropped more than expected, hinting financial conditions could be quite tight.
Board members said jobs data should be approached with considerable caution due to survey changes.
Case for rates to act promptly to keep inflation expectations anchored.
Overseas rate increases may ease domestic financial conditions through a drop in the Australian dollar.
Liaison indicates widespread domestic cost pressures, unit labour costs.
Domestic spending must remain muted for a period to bring inflation back to target.
Market reaction
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges slightly lower following the RBA Minutes. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.13% lower on the day to trade at 0.6950.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
- AUD/USD loses nearly 0.40% as geopolitical risks trigger safe-haven flows.
- WTI climbs above $93 while Fed's Hammack backs further tightening.
- RBA minutes and Australian business confidence data offer fresh catalysts.
The Australian Dollar ended Monday’s session with losses of close to 0.40% amid thin liquidity due to the Columbus Day holiday, with most US cash markets closed, as market participants were guided by the latest geopolitical developments. The AUD/USD trades near 0.6950 after peaking below 0.7000.
AUD/USD slides toward 0.6950 as geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed rhetoric weigh
Geopolitics influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US President Trump announcing an agreement to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports was cheered by investors, who didn’t expect another social post by Trump, who said that Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
Despite this, Russia attacked a power plant, and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy warned of potential retaliation. At the same time, hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and Tehran’s launching strikes on vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a flight to safety, which obviously underpinned the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance versus six peers, is up 0.33% at 102.56. In the meantime, energy prices drifted higher, with WTI, gaining over 1.60% at $93.17.
In the US, the docket was light, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterating her hawkish stance; she argued that further rate hikes are needed, favoring gradual adjustments, and that she sees the neutral rate of monetary policy near the top of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Later in the week, further Fed speakers and the release of US inflation figures are eyed by market participants ahead of the blackout period for FOMC policymakers. Also, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would cross the wires on October 16 at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In Australia, traders are looking for the release of the NAB Business Survey, followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes, in which Governor Bullock adopted a more neutral stance, acknowledging that raising rates three times may be enough to tame high inflation.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6957, keeping a bearish near‑term bias as price holds beneath the latest triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7088. The pair also remains capped by the broader downtrend resistance line from 0.8015, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 36.7 sits in weak territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but is not yet oversold enough to argue for a strong corrective rebound.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the grouped simple moving averages near 0.7088, with the descending trend resistance overhead and a more distant horizontal barrier at 0.7198 reinforcing the cap on recovery attempts. On the downside, successive rising trend lines from 0.6897 and 0.6865, alongside the longer‑dated supports from 0.6833 and 0.6673, define a broad demand zone beneath spot, with a clear break below these ascending floors needed to extend the prevailing bearish phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.38% | 0.42% | 0.48% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | -0.20% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.00% | 0.12% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | 0.20% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.30% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | 0.20% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.38% | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.21% | 0.11% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.27% | -0.11% | -0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.48% | -0.11% | -0.30% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.09% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
US special envoy Jared Kushner said that a deal to allow Russian diesel exports is part of a bid to draw Russia back to negotiations after the failure of previous efforts to launch sustained talks to end the war, Reuters reported on Monday.
The source said that Washington relayed to the Ukrainians that the diesel deal could help "soften" Moscow's position in part because it "sends a signal that Trump is open to doing things" with Russia.
The agreement, which would see Russia deliver over 2.25 million barrels of diesel to the US and global markets, has drawn criticism from some US lawmakers. They argue that the deal would give Moscow cash to pursue its war without forcing Putin to make concessions to end the conflict. On Monday, Trump defended the agreement, calling it "the right choice for the American people."
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up1.62% on the day at $92.45.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Saudi Arabia said that it faces more drones and missile strikes, while several countries issued travel warnings against visiting the kingdom following deadly strikes on Riyadh’s airport by Iran-backed Houthi militants, CNBC reported on Monday.
The Saudi aviation authority extended the suspension of airport operations following numerous projectile attacks over the previous week. The deadliest incident occurred on Saturday, leaving 12 people dead and more than 300 injured, officials said. A further strike on Sunday killed one person and injured nearly a dozen.
On Monday, Yemen's Armed Forces warned airlines, employees, and passengers that no Saudi airspace or airports are safe except Mecca and Medina, urge against travel, according to Fars News. The Houthi stated that it targeted Riyadh airport with ballistic missiles on Monday.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up1.62% on the day at $92.45.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold price slumps to near $4,170 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Oil-driven inflation concerns and tighter monetary-policy expectations weigh on the Gold price.
- Robust inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and accelerated purchases by the PBoC could underpin precious metal.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,170 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal retreats from a one-week high on a stronger US Dollar (USD) and higher crude oil prices. Traders await the key US inflation data later this week for more clues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest-rate trajectory.
Oil prices jump to a two-week high amid hopes of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and a new round of Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. These developments raise inflation concerns, prompting central bank tightening. Gold is often used as an inflation hedge but pays no interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
“The macro backdrop remains challenging as persistent inflationary pressures continue to keep additional Fed tightening on the table, supporting Treasury yields and maintaining pressure on real rates,” said Manav Modi, a commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
On the other hand, rising demand might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have reached a four-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Additionally, the Chinese central bank added 740,000 ounces to its reserves in September, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months.
Gold gains as CTAs cover shorts and TD Securities eyes bull run into 2027
According to strategists at TD Securities, commodity trading advisors are now “covering shorts across gold and platinum as strong fundamental backdrop for precious metals insulates the market.” The bank notes that “the yellow metal is gaining on the day with CTAs back on the bid, covering shorts by some 7% of historic max position size,” underscoring a meaningful shift in positioning. TD Securities argues that “geopolitical risk, fiscal concern, dollar debasement, de-dollarization and stagflation concerns all remain major supportive factors for these flows in gold,” and concludes that “we continue to see the stage being set for the yellow metal to disconnect from real rates further and begin a new bull run into 2027.”
Technical Analysis: Gold retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). This alignment leaves gold locked below its primary trend gauges, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.73 leans lower, suggesting downside pressure persists but without oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near $4,225, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,255; a daily close above these barriers would be needed to ease the current downside bias, with the upper Bollinger band at $4,400 acting as a more distant cap. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at $4,055 offers the next notable support, and a break below that zone would open the door to a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/JPY closes near 158.60, its highest close since September 24, as Crude Oil climbs.
- Speculators held 62.3K net long Yen futures contracts in the week to October 6.
- US CPI forecast at 3.7% YoY on Wednesday, up from 3.4% in August.
Brent climbed above $107 a barrel on Monday with Japan shut for the Health and Sports Day holiday and the US government bond market shut for Columbus Day. USD/JPY closed near 158.60, its highest close since September 24, and its low for the day came within minutes of Brent's. Tokyo reopens on Tuesday with Japan's finance minister in Bangkok for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings and US inflation figures due on Wednesday.
Both bond markets were shut and the Yen moved with Brent
Japan buys nearly all of its Crude Oil abroad at prices set in Dollars, so every rise in Brent means selling more Yen. USD/JPY made its low near 158.00 as Brent fell below $103 at the weekly open on US President Trump's claim of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Its high, just above 158.50, came with Brent back near $107 after Russia kept hitting Ukraine's energy sites and Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed a third supertanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
The 10-year Treasury yield stayed at Friday's 5.24% and Japan's 10-year near 3.0%, because neither bond market was open. The overnight gap is wider, with the Fed at 3.75%-4.00% against the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 1.25%, so borrowing Yen to hold Dollars pays more than 2.5 points a year. USD/JPY still made its highest close of October on a day the rate gap couldn't change.
Speculators are betting on a stronger Yen as the pair climbs toward 160.00
Speculators held 62.3K more futures contracts betting on a stronger Yen than on a weaker one as of October 6, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That's about ¥779 billion, and they added 6.9K contracts that week, betting that Japan buys Yen again. The Finance Ministry spent ¥15.4 trillion from July 30 to late August, the most it has ever spent on the Yen in a month, and the buying started with USD/JPY near 164.00.
Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Mimura said on September 28 that he wasn't satisfied with or reassured by the Yen's moves, and Finance Minister Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are both in Bangkok for the IMF and G20 meetings. The speculators' trade needs Tokyo to act, and on Monday Tokyo had the day off.
A BoJ member who voted against September's hike now backs hikes in stages
The other route to a stronger Yen is the BoJ. Board member Sato was one of two members who voted against the September 18 hike to 1.25%. In interviews published on October 6 and 7, she said she supports raising rates in stages and that Crude Oil prices tilt the risk to prices higher.
Japanese household spending fell for a ninth straight month in August, the weak consumption Sato cited when she voted no. Reports citing people familiar with the BoJ's thinking point to a pause on October 30 and a hike in December.
Prime Minister Takaichi is asking parliament to cut the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years from April 2027, and says she won't sell bonds to cover it. The cut would cost an estimated ¥10 trillion over two years, and Japanese yields pushed up by borrowing worries can weigh on the Yen rather than lift it.
Wednesday's US inflation forecast is 3.7%, or 2.5% without food and energy
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT are forecast at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY for September, and at 0.2% and 2.5% once food and energy are stripped out. The energy part of that gap is the cost that lifted USD/JPY on Monday, and December Fed hike odds are above 80%, against under 20% for October 28.
Fed Governor Waller, who said on October 8 that more hikes are likely needed but the pace can be flexible, speaks on Tuesday at 07:45 GMT. US producer prices, forecast up 5.4% YoY, and retail sales are due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
BoJ board member Koeda speaks on Thursday at 01:30 GMT. Fed Chair Warsh speaks last, at 03:30 GMT on Friday in a fireside chat at the IMF meetings, the day before the Fed stops speaking publicly ahead of its October 27-28 meeting.
Levels between the 50-day average and 160.00
Resistance: Monday's high just above 158.50 is the highest since September 24, when the rally stopped just above 159.00. 160.00 is where the early-September drop started, the last time USD/JPY traded above it.
Support: Monday's low near 158.00 held at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), also near 158.00. 157.50 has been under every daily close since October 1.
Bias: The lean stays long while 158.00 holds on a closing basis, aiming at 159.00 and then 160.00. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has turned down from near 85 to near 72 while price made its high, so momentum isn't confirming the move. A daily close below 157.50 ends the long.
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- GBP/USD drifts back toward 1.3200, its floor for 13 sessions, as Crude Oil lifts the Dollar.
- Markets price about 90% odds of a BoE hike on November 5.
- UK August GDP forecast at -0.1% MoM on Thursday, after 0.4% in July.
Every session since September 24 has bottomed within about 25 pips of 1.3200, and Monday was the 13th. GBP/USD closed near 1.3210 after a climb to just above 1.3250, made before London opened, was given back as Brent rose above $107 a barrel. The Dollar Index reached its highest since April 2025 on the same move, so Monday's slide had more to do with the Dollar than the Pound.
Four BoE hikes priced and the Pound near a three-month low
Bank of England (BoE) external member Mann said on Monday that UK inflation near 4% around the turn of the year could set off a wage-price drift. She added that services inflation will be hard to bring down without more hikes. Markets put the odds of a hike on November 5 near 90% and price the UK's Bank Rate at 4.75% within a year, four quarter-point moves above its current 3.75%. That's four hikes priced for an economy forecast to have shrunk in August.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who votes on Fed policy this year, said the same day that more tightening is needed, that she'd rather move in smaller steps taken quickly, and that Treasury yields are modest by historical standards. Futures already put a December Fed hike above 80%, so both sides of GBP/USD are priced for higher rates.
The UK imports more Crude Oil and fuel than it produces and pays for it in Dollars, and Brent is what moved the pair on Monday. GBP/USD made its high before London opened with Brent near $104.50, and its low came after Brent went through $107.
The bet against the Pound has worked against the Dollar and not the Euro
Speculators held a net 97.6K futures contracts betting on a weaker Pound in the week to October 6, about £6.1 billion, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and they added 6.5K that week. Of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the BoE, only the BoE hasn't raised rates this year. So far, £6.1 billion of bets on a weaker Pound has bought 13 sessions at the same floor.
The Pound was bought against the Euro ahead of Prime Minister Burnham's speech on relations with the European Union on Monday, and EUR/GBP fell to its lowest since June 2025. The Euro is 57.6% of the Dollar Index and the Pound 11.9%, so the index's 18-month high has come mostly from a weaker Euro, and GBP/USD has fallen less than EUR/USD on the way.
Bailey and Warsh speak 90 minutes apart in Bangkok on Friday
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, forecast at 3.7% YoY from 3.4%, with core CPI at 2.5%. US retail sales follow on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, forecast up 0.3% after 1.2% in August. A strong pair of releases would add to Fed hike bets and push on the Dollar side of GBP/USD.
UK August Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes out on Thursday at 06:00 GMT, forecast at -0.1% MoM after 0.4% in July, with industrial and manufacturing output also forecast at -0.1%. A contraction would leave the BoE's November case resting on inflation alone. The British Retail Consortium's September like-for-like sales figure comes first, at 23:01 GMT on Monday, forecast at 0.7% YoY after 0.5%.
External member Greene, who voted for a hike to 4% at the June, July and September meetings, speaks on Tuesday at 03:00 GMT. She said on October 8 that it's dangerous for the BoE to assume the bond market will do its work, which is the opposite of Governor Bailey's view that higher market borrowing costs have bought the BoE time.
Chief Economist Pill speaks on Wednesday and Thursday, and Deputy Governor Breeden on Thursday. Governor Bailey speaks at 02:00 GMT on Friday at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, and Fed Chair Warsh follows at 03:30 GMT, the day before the Fed's quiet period for its October 27-28 meeting begins. Chancellor Healey's Budget is on October 28 and the BoE decides on November 5.
Levels and bias
Resistance: 1.3250 stopped the bounces on October 8 and 9, and Monday's high just above it came before London opened and didn't hold. 1.3300 has capped every session since September 24 except a brief spike above it on September 30.
Support: 1.3200 has been the floor for 13 sessions, and only October 1 closed under it. 1.3180 is the low of that run and of late June, and GBP/USD last traded at 1.3150 in late June.
Bias: The lean turns short while 1.3250 caps on a closing basis, with 1.3180 the first objective and 1.3150 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has climbed out of oversold to near 45 and is still rising, which is the main risk to the short. A daily close above 1.3250 ends it.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- EUR/USD sheds 0.40%, breaking below the psychological 1.1200 level.
- Fed's Hammack advocates higher rates as inflation pressures broaden.
- WTI climbs above $93 ahead of crucial US inflation releases.
The Euro extends its losses against the US Dollar on Monday, even falling below the psychological 1.1200 level as sellers step in following hawkish comments from a Fed policymaker and growing geopolitical concerns on two fronts: the US-Iran war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1155, down 0.40%.
EUR/USD tumbles towards 1.1150 as geopolitical tensions reinforce US inflation concerns
The Columbus Day holiday kept the markets quiet, with the cash markets closed. But over-the-weekend news, with US President Trump announcing a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war on energy facilities, was cheered by investors, who later scrambled to buy Oil as Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy warned that hostilities will remain if Russia attacks infrastructure.
Tensions in the Hormuz remain high, even though Iran revealed that the US agreed, in some form, to the seven conditions Tehran required to reopen the Strait. This pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) higher, with WTI ending Monday’s session up over 1.60% at $93.17.
The US economic docket was absent, yet eyes were on Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who commented that higher rates are needed as inflation broadens and that, within the FOMC, she has one of the highest projections for the neutral rate.
Ahead this week, traders' focus will be on Fed speakers, led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and on the release of US inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected on October 14, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on October 15.
In the European Union, investors would target the release of Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and speeches by European Central Bank (ECB) members Elderson and Escriva.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1157, extending a bearish phase as spot holds well below the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) group around 1.1496. The pair also remains under the long-running downward resistance trend line, whose break reference near 1.1295 now acts as an additional cap, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 22 stays deep in oversold territory, hinting that sellers remain in control even if short-lived corrective rebounds become more likely.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges near the former break area of the descending trend line around 1.1295, ahead of the dense 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA band at roughly 1.1496, which reinforces the broader bearish structure. Further up, the horizontal barrier at 1.1849 represents a more distant obstacle whose recovery would be required to alleviate the medium-term downside pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that further tightening is needed but reiterated earlier remarks that she is open “to adjusting the pace of rate increases.”
Hammack commented that inflationary pressures spread beyond Artificial Intelligence (AI), and that “other companies are also performing well and are prepared to invest.” She added that business contacts sound more like the economy is “thriving.”
Key highlight:
More tightening needed but open to adjusting pace of rate increases
Inflation pressures spreading beyond Al, with other companies also performing well and prepared to invest
Don’t want to deter growth but may need to ease it back a bit
Business contacts sounding more like economy is thriving than about to slow down
Policy curbs will need to reduce demand via capital spending or consumption
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.41% | 0.19% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.35% | 0.42% | 0.53% | |
| EUR | -0.41% | -0.24% | -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.19% | 0.24% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.33% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.25% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.35% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | 0.08% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.17% | 0.15% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.42% | -0.07% | -0.30% | -0.27% | -0.27% | -0.15% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.53% | -0.11% | -0.33% | -0.32% | -0.35% | -0.17% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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