Forex News

• The New Zealand Dollar gains as markets expect further monetary tightening in New Zealand.
• The recent decline in US Treasury yields limits support for the US Dollar.
• Tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin safe-haven demand.

NZD/USD advances for the second consecutive day on Thursday, trading around 0.5940 at the time of writing, up 0.12% on the day. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits mainly from expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), while the US Dollar (USD) remains pressured by the recent decline in US Treasury yields.

New Zealand's monetary policy outlook remains supportive of the Kiwi following the latest hotter-than-expected inflation data. Markets are now pricing in up to three additional RBNZ rate hikes through early 2027, reinforcing expectations of another monetary policy tightening at the September meeting.

The external environment also provides some support to the New Zealand Dollar. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for the 15th consecutive month on Thursday, with the one-year rate at 3% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. Stable monetary conditions in China are closely monitored by investors due to the strong trade ties between China and New Zealand.

On the US side, the US Dollar remains under pressure despite the rebound in the yields on Thursday and the more hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes released on Wednesday. The recent decline in US Treasury yields reduces the relative appeal of the Greenback and contributes to the advance in NZD/USD.

Treasury yields fell sharply on Wednesday following an announcement from the US Treasury regarding its long-dated debt buyback operations. Starting September 9, the Treasury plans to at least double the size of some buyback operations for securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The decision helps ease the tensions that had recently pushed long-term yields higher. However, rates rebounded slightly on Thursday, as the market viewed these measures as failing to address the underlying economic problems in the United States.

US Treasury buybacks flatten curve as Dollar drifts lower

BBH’s Elias Haddad highlights that “US long-term Treasury yields have retraced most of yesterday’s drop triggered by the US Treasury’s buyback announcement, while USD has extended its decline.” He explains that “the Treasury buyback is essentially a debt-management swap. The Treasury buys and retires older, less liquid bonds (off-the-run) in favor of new, more liquid debt (on-the-run) issued through its regular auction. Total debt stays the same but its composition shifts toward newer, more liquid securities.”

According to BBH, “the additional buyback size will probably be financed at the margin through greater bill issuance. More front-end supply combined with long-bond purchases, point to a flatter yield curve. However, the impact should be limited given the small size of the operations relative to the overall Treasury market ($31.4 trillion).”

Haddad cautions that “the timing of the Treasury’s buyback announcement sends a less comfortable message. The Treasury expanded the long-end buybacks shortly after the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. This suggests that heavy debt supply (public and private) is beginning to strain long-end liquidity and the Treasury is increasingly uncomfortable with rising borrowing costs.” In his view, “bottom line, the perception the Treasury is managing yields rather than liquidity undermines US fiscal credibility and is a drag on USD.”

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the buybacks could even exceed $4 billion and stressed that current yields do not, in his view, reflect the economy's underlying fundamentals. He also sees a strong chance that the US budget deficit has already peaked and signals an increased focus on fiscal consolidation.

The supportive backdrop for NZD/USD could nevertheless be limited by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Concerns remain particularly elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global Oil trade. Persistent risk aversion could support demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency and therefore limit further gains in the New Zealand Dollar.

• AUD/USD is holding near multi-week highs around 0.7100, a touch softer on the day as the US Dollar firms.
• Australia's latest jobs data disappointed, but firmer inflation expectations keep the Reserve Bank of Australia's tightening bias in play.
• Friday's preliminary PMIs are the next domestic test, with the prior surveys all sitting in expansion.

AUD/USD is trading in the 0.7100 neighborhood at the time of writing on Thursday, holding close to multi-week highs after a steady climb off its earlier lows. The pair is marginally weaker on the day as the US Dollar (USD) regains a little ground, but the broader uptrend remains intact.

The most recent Australian employment report came in weak, pointing to a labor market that is cooling faster than expected after months of resilience. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have pushed higher. This mix muddies the outlook rather than clarifying it.

For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the softer jobs numbers argue for patience, but sticky price pressures and rising expectations keep a tightening bias on the table. The Board held the cash rate at 4.35% at its August meeting and warned it could raise if upside inflation risks build. That lingering hawkish lean is part of what has kept the Aussie supported near its highs.

The near-term focus now shifts to Friday's United States (US) flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, the most important domestic release still to come this week. The previous readings all sat comfortably in expansion, and traders will watch whether that momentum holds.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7115, retaining a modest bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7104 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7053. The nearby horizontal support at 0.7103 reinforces this constructive stance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 suggests mildly positive momentum without reaching overbought territory.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.7120, followed closely by clustered barriers at 0.7124 and 0.7132, where buying pressure could start to fade. On the downside, the 20-period SMA at 0.7104 and the horizontal floor at 0.7103 form the first support band, with the 100-period SMA at 0.7053 underpinning the broader advance in case of a deeper pullback.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• DJIA trades near 53,050, more than 400 points lower and 3% under the record.
• Philadelphia Fed six-month outlook at 73.6, its highest since August 1983.
• Thirty-year yield back above 5.25%, erasing the buyback relief in one session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 53,050, more than 400 points lower on the session, after two of the strongest American data points of the month arrived in the same 12:30 GMT block and were sold on delivery. Manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region printed a five-year high with a six-month outlook at its best since August 1983, and weekly jobless claims came in at 206K against a 210K consensus and a 212K prior. Neither is a soft number, which is exactly the problem.

The best six months since 1983, on paper

The Philadelphia Fed's current activity index rose to 47.4 in August from 41.4, against a consensus of 25, making it the largest surprise on the release page by a distance. The forward-looking components did more work than the headline. Six-month general activity jumped 39 points to 73.6, the highest reading since August 1983, with future new orders at 66.0 and future shipments at 63.5, each the best in more than five years.

What travels alongside that optimism is the reason the tape declined to pay for it. Future prices paid rose 6 points to 62.9 and future prices received rose 18 points to 59.8, both back above their long-run averages, so the firms expecting their best half-year in four decades also expect to pay more and charge more. Nominal expansion is a bond problem before it is an earnings gift.

A rescue with a one-day shelf life

Yesterday's relief in the long end lasted exactly one session, with the thirty-year yield back above 5.25% and the ten-year near 4.70%, each more than five basis points higher. That returns the curve to roughly where it sat before the Treasury said it would at least double its longer-dated buyback operations to 4 billion Dollars from 2 billion. The Treasury Secretary spent the morning promising the operations could run larger and offering to make a market in the maturities that have been selling off.

Yields rose anyway, which is the available verdict on a 4 billion Dollar ceiling set against a federal debt that passed 40 trillion Dollars on Wednesday. The operation rearranges the maturity schedule rather than reducing anything, and the first larger purchase does not run until September 9. An issuer obliged to advertise demand for its own paper on two consecutive days is telling the equity market what the discount rate intends to do.

Who is paying for the optimism

Walmart (WMT) trades close to 9% lower after United States comparable sales rose 2.6% against a 3.8% estimate, the first shortfall of that kind in more than five years, with third-quarter and full-year adjusted earnings guidance landing short as well. Profit and revenue both beat. The miss was in traffic, which management traced to households under financial strain and to what those households are paying at the pump.

As an index member the decline is worth roughly 60 index points, around a seventh of the session move, so the retailer is the headline rather than the cause. It is the third consecutive reading on the same household, after July retail sales fell 0.6% and preliminary August sentiment collapsed to 51.

Crude Oil is 2% higher into that, West Texas Intermediate just short of $88.00 and Brent above $93.50, after Washington promised its most aggressive sanctions campaign yet against Tehran and threatened consequences for any country supplying a lifeline. The bid in the barrel and the missing trip to the store are one story read from opposite ends.

Friday's surveys test which economy is real

Preliminary August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings land Friday at 13:45 GMT, and the consensus has both halves easing, manufacturing at 53.8 from 53.9 and services at 54 from 54.6, against a composite prior of 54.5. The services line carries the red band. It is the direct test of the split this session priced, with one survey putting factories at a five-year high and the largest American retailer reporting fewer visits.

A regional Fed president without a vote this year spoke at 15:10 GMT, and the index shed roughly 200 points from its afternoon high inside the following half hour, on remarks the calendar scored exactly as hawkish as that speaker's own average. His argument was that raising rates now spares the committee a larger move later, and that what he recommends in September depends on the data. Friday is the data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average technical levels

Resistance: The 53,200 area capped two separate recovery attempts through the afternoon, with the session high just above 53,500 beyond it and the 53,800 ceiling that has held since August 14 above that. The record just short of 54,750 remains the ceiling, roughly 3% above spot.

Support: The 53,000 handle is the line, with the session low printing just beneath it around midday. A daily close under 53,000 opens 52,750 and then the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 52,500, which has not been touched since late July.

Bias: Bearish. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 68 is rolling over out of the upper band with no new high beneath it since August 5, and the 5-minute reading near 25 is the only argument for a bounce first. Invalidation on a daily close back above 53,500.

Dow Jones daily chart

• Gold recovers from its intraday low and climbs back above the $4,500 mark.
• The US Dollar and Treasury yields recover following Wednesday’s sharp decline.
• XAU/USD struggles near the 200-day Simple Moving Average at $4,512.

Gold (XAU/USD) trims its earlier intraday losses during American trading hours on Thursday and climbs back above the $4,500 mark, even as US Treasury yields rebound and the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following the previous day’s sharp pullback. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,522, recovering from an intraday low of $4,456.

The precious metal climbed over 4% on Wednesday after the US Treasury Department announced that it would increase its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government securities. In reaction, the 30-year Treasury yield fell around 9 basis points (bps) to 5.18%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped about 5 bps to 4.63%.

The Treasury’s move provided some relief to the bond market after the 30-year yield climbed above 5.30% earlier this week, its highest level since 2007. However, both the 10-year and 30-year yields are up around 6 basis points on Thursday. The buybacks may ease pressure in the short term, but they do not address large fiscal deficits, heavy debt issuance or persistent inflation risks, analysts warn.

These concerns limit the downside in Gold by supporting demand for the metal as a hedge against rising government debt and fiscal uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the bond buyback could exceed $4 billion.

Gold also remains sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to TD Securities, analysts highlight that “the signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end, alongside a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices, should be enough to support the yellow metal in the near-term.”

However, they caution that the next meaningful advance may take time to emerge, noting that “with the market still pricing in hikes for 2027, the next leg higher for Gold is unlikely to materialize before the broader market becomes more convinced that the Fed remains on hold.”

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in a 65% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, up from 35% a month ago.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that “rising bond yields don’t give a signal for policy” and that Fed policy “is in a good place.” She added that “short-term yields show markets understand the Fed’s reaction function,” while stressing that the central bank “really has to focus on achieving its inflation target.”

On the data front, weekly US labour market data offers some support to the Greenback. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K, below market expectations of 210K and the previous reading of 212K (revised from 209K). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.80, recovering from an intraday low of 98.56, its weakest level since May 14.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD battles the 200-day SMA

On the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a bullish near-term bias as prices hold above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,164 and $4,380, respectively. The metal is now fluctuating near the 200-day SMA at $4,512.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 65, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, pointing to firm upside momentum.

A daily close above the 200-day SMA could open the door toward the horizontal resistance at $4,650. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $4,380 offers initial support, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,164 and the $4,000 psychological mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• GBP/USD advances as traders digest solid US jobless claims.
• US Treasury buyback pressure fades as the US Dollar steadies near recent lows.
• UK Retail Sales and PMIs could steer BoE hike expectations.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances on Thursday during the North American session, up 0.25% after US economic data showed that the labor market remains solid, despite a weaker Nonfarm Payrolls in July. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3639 after reaching a daily high of 1.3659, its highest level since February.

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation offsets solid US labor data

The Greenback has recovered some ground after posting losses, following the US Department of the Treasury's announcement of a bond buyback program. The Treasury’s goal is to provide liquidity for the long end of the curve, but markets interpreted the move as a form of Yield Curve Control (YCC). 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, remains steady at 98.79, after refreshing two-and-a-half-month lows at 98.55, a level last seen in May 14.

Data-wise, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 15 dipped from 212K down to 206K, below forecasts of 210K. At the same time, the 4-week average of jobless claims edged up from 199.75K to 204K.

Recently, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossed the wires. St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem said that strong growth and investment are influencing the bond market. He added that in July, he recommended raising rates, but for the September meeting, he remains open.

Earlier, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly said that a rise in long-term bond yields is a global issue, which reduces its usefulness as a signal for the Fed. She added that she doesn’t see Fed credibility as at risk and is making the case that the short end is reacting to the data.

In the UK, inflation hit a four-month high in July as confirmed by data released on Wednesday. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates in 2026 remain high, with traders expecting 25 basis points of tightening by the December meeting, as revealed by Prime Terminal.

In the meantime, traders are eyeing the release of UK Retail Sales for July, which are expected to show that consumer spending decelerated. In addition, traders will eye S&P Global Flash PMIS. Across the pond, the US schedule will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs, amid a scarce week of data releases.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3636, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the cluster of former descending trend-line resistance now turned support around 1.3499–1.3409 and the 50/100/200-day simple moving average (SMA) group near 1.3390. The upward-sloping support lines, with break points at 1.3609 and 1.3366, reinforce the constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 70.49 edges into overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but vulnerable to consolidation.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the recent highs around 1.3609, followed by the broken trend-line levels at 1.3499 and 1.3409, and then the dense SMA floor near 1.3390, with the lower rising trend-line break at 1.3366 acting as a deeper structural base. With no clear resistance levels defined above the market in the current dataset, the pair would likely need an overbought correction before bears can challenge this supportive zone, keeping the broader path of least resistance skewed to the upside while these levels hold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem is crossing the wires with remarks on the economy and the monetary policy outlook, speaking in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.

Musalem flags upside inflation risks, keeps Dollar bulls alert despite cautious tone shift

Fed’s Musalem delivered a moderately hawkish-leaning message, with a 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score that is in line with the speaker’s historical average, but the emphasis on neutral-to-accommodative policy and “pretty accommodative” financial conditions tempers the tone.

The key remark that underlying inflation running between 2.5%-3% is “too high,” and that hiking now could avoid more aggressive action later underscores upside inflation risks and a bias toward pre-emptive tightening, even as Musalem stresses Fed credibility and independence from fiscal policy. References to strong growth, recovering productivity, and potential supply shocks such as a “super El Nino” reinforce a narrative where inflation risks remain front and center, keeping the Dollar supported on dips.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 0.34 points to 132.42, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness from the prior reading despite the still-strong focus on inflation. With the index firmly above the 100 neutral line, the Fed remains in hawkish territory even after this slight sentiment cooling, suggesting markets will continue to price a non-trivial probability of further tightening, in line with Musalem’s warning that current rates may not be sufficient to reliably return inflation to 2%.

Key quotes:

Strong growth and investment are influencing the bond market.

Fed credibility is not in question.

The Fed is focused on making monetary policy independent of fiscal policy.

Monetary policy is neutral or accommodative right now.

Financial conditions are pretty accommodative here.

The number one concern of the public is inflation.

Businesses are facing high input costs.

A super El Niño might be the next supply shock.

Given current Fed rates, sees a lower probability of getting inflation back to 2%.

Hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later.

Underlying inflation is between 2.5% and 3%, is too high and must be lowered.

Productivity is seeing a recovery.

The best thing the Fed can do for growth is get inflation back to 2%.

Some parts of the economy are seeing credit getting crowded out.

Forward guidance is useful when rates are at zero.

Forward guidance suggests commitment; communicating a framework is different.

When you have supply shocks, you have to look at core inflation.

Won't offer a firm view on what he wants the Fed to do at the September FOMC.

Won't prejudge the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the US Dollar (USD) is extending losses to its weakest level since mid-June as markets react to the US Treasury’s decision to double bond buybacks. The move is seen as an attempt to manage longer-term yields amid doubts over Federal Reserve (Fed) inflation resolve and US fiscal sustainability, with US Dollar Index (DXY) seen falling another 1–1.5% near term.

Treasury buybacks pressure Dollar further

"The USD is weakening further today, sliding to its lowest since mid-June. Stocks are mixed, crude oil prices are stronger and major bond markets are a little weaker. Treasurys are underperforming and the curve is steepening again."

"Yesterday’s Treasury Dept. announcement that it was doubling the size of its bond buybacks took the market by surprise. The announcement came just two weeks after its latest quarterly refunding announcement and a few hours before a 20Y Treasury auction."

"The plan targets longer-term rates and is limited in scale; buybacks go from USD2bn to USD4bn and run from September 9th-November 4th. It’s ostensibly a liquidity management issue but the announcement left the impression that the Treasury is trying to calm the Treasury markets after the recent ramp up in term rates and it’s not a good look."

"It suggests that the Treasury is trying to manage longer-term rates—which have been rising because markets are questioning the Fed’s commitment to inflation fighting and investors are worried about the sustainability of US fiscal policy. If yields can’t fully take the strain from those concerns, the USD will have to. The dollar debasement trade is making a comeback."

"The July FOMC minutes showed that “many” policymakers felt tighter policy would be needed if inflation didn’t decline. But recent signs of abating price pressures and some softening in the labour market suggest the risk of a September hike is still lower than market-implied probabilities (a bit more than 30%)."

"On the charts, DXY losses are extending through the 50% retracement of the dollar’s H1 gains, paving the way for a further 1-1.5% decline in the index in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• USD/CHF rebounds after falling to its lowest level since June 17.
• The pair’s technical structure weakens following a break below the 50-day SMA.
• Buyers defend the area around the 100-day SMA at 0.7975.

USD/CHF regains ground on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilises following the previous day’s broad weakness, which pushed the pair below the 0.8000 psychological mark and to its lowest level since June 17, weakening the near-term bullish structure. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.7998 after bouncing from an intraday low of 0.7949.

The pair lost 1.83% on Wednesday and slipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8085 for the first time since June 2. However, buyers re-emerged after a brief dip below the 100-day SMA at 0.7975, helping the pair regain ground.

USD/CHF is hovering just below the 0.8000 horizontal barrier. Momentum remains fragile, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.2 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding below zero, suggesting that recovery attempts could struggle against nearby resistance.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 0.8000 mark, followed by the support-turned-resistance zone near 0.8050 and the 50-day SMA at 0.8085. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 0.7975 offers immediate support, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 0.7933. A deeper decline could expose the horizontal floor at 0.7850.

• The US Treasury Secretary is considering bond buybacks exceeding $4 billion.
• Bessent says current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
• The US official sees a good chance that the deficit has peaked and signals an increased focus on fiscal consolidation.

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals. He stressed that interest rates have nothing to do with the buyback decision.

On fiscal policy, Bessent said there is a very good chance that the US deficit has already peaked and indicated that the administration will likely increase its focus on fiscal consolidation. He also played down the $40 trillion debt threshold and expects tariff revenues in 2026 to remain similar to 2025 levels.

Bessent added that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (Fed) would coordinate in the event of changes to the central bank’s balance sheet. On inflation, he noted that market indicators point to lower price pressures ahead.

Key takeaways

Buyback could be more than 4 billion.

Part of it is signaling.

We want to show that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals.

Probably going to announce increased focus on fiscal consolidation.

Nothing magic about $40 trillion debt number.

Expect tariff 2026 income will be similar to 2025.

Very good chance we've seen peak deficit.

Markets got a little ahead of itself.

Treasury and Fed would work together if any change in balance sheet.

We would adjust.

Rates have nothing to do with buyback decision.

Markers are saying [inflation] will be lower in future.

Market reaction

The US Dollar (USD) showed little reaction to Bessent’s comments, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) remaining broadly unchanged on Thursday, trading around 98.80 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remains supported after Wednesday’s decline, rising by more than 6 basis points on Thursday to around 4.70%.

• US Oil reaches a fresh three-week high, supported by persistent concerns over global supply.
• Donald Trump threatens severe economic consequences for countries providing support to Iran.
• Qatar sees the Iran-Oman agreement as a preliminary step toward renewed negotiations with Washington.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises 1.89% on Thursday and trades around $85.85 at the time of writing, after reaching a fresh three-week high at $87.38 earlier in the day. Oil prices remain supported by disruptions to global energy supplies and the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.

WTI benefits in particular from concerns surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. According to available information, the two waterways together account for around 27% of global energy supply, maintaining a significant risk premium in Oil prices.

The prospect of a rapid normalization in supply remains limited as United States (US) President Donald Trump steps up economic pressure on Iran. The US President warns that countries allowing their financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide economic support to Tehran could face severe economic consequences.

Trump specifically calls for an end to Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers and other mechanisms that could support the Iranian economy. Washington's tougher stance is therefore fueling fears that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for longer, keeping risks to global energy flows elevated.

On the diplomatic front, however, Qatar believes that talks between Iran and Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz could represent an important step before a potential resumption of dialogue between the United States and Iran.

Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on Tuesday that discussions between Iran and Oman had become a key step toward restarting a broader diplomatic process. Progress on this issue could pave the way for Washington and Tehran to return to the negotiating table, but the lack of an immediate agreement continues to support WTI for now.

WTI US Oil technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $85.81, retaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $83.52 and the 200-period SMA at $82.26. The cluster of nearby horizontal levels, with initial support just beneath at $85.65 and $85.00, suggests a well-supported market, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 57 keeps momentum in positive but not overbought territory.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $85.65, followed by $85.00, with deeper demand levels emerging at $83.70 and the $83.52 and $82.26 SMAs reinforcing the broader uptrend if a larger pullback unfolds. On the topside, the next significant resistance stands at $87.38, and a sustained break above this barrier would likely open the way to further gains as bullish momentum extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)