Forex News
- USD/CHF falls below all major SMAs, confirming bearish structure shift.
- RSI in bearish territory reflects strong selling pressure since April.
- Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.
USD/CHF finishes the week on a lower note, down 0.87% for the week and 0.27% in the day, as markets turn optimistic about a possible US-Iran deal over the weekend. In the meantime, the technical picture remains bearish, as the pair tumbled below key moving averages, hitting a five-week low at 0.7775.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows the pair ended the day below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7825—the last of a group of four that included the 20-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs —, opening the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in bearish territory, indicating that bears have been aggressive since April 9, when the index pierced below its 50-neutral level.
For a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF must clear key support at 0.7800. A breach of the latter will expose a key support trendline around 0.7775/80, followed by the March 10 daily low at 0.7748. Fresh buying interest is seen at 0.7700.
On the other hand, a break of resistance at the 50-day SMA would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, ahead of the 20-day SMA at 0.7909. Overhead lies the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.78% | -0.92% | -0.59% | -1.23% | -2.48% | -1.43% | -1.14% | |
| EUR | 0.78% | -0.15% | 0.17% | -0.43% | -1.65% | -0.66% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 0.92% | 0.15% | 0.26% | -0.30% | -1.50% | -0.51% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | -0.17% | -0.26% | -0.66% | -1.84% | -0.74% | -0.57% | |
| CAD | 1.23% | 0.43% | 0.30% | 0.66% | -1.10% | -0.09% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | 2.48% | 1.65% | 1.50% | 1.84% | 1.10% | 1.06% | 1.27% | |
| NZD | 1.43% | 0.66% | 0.51% | 0.74% | 0.09% | -1.06% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | 1.14% | 0.34% | 0.18% | 0.57% | -0.11% | -1.27% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
US President Donald Trump said he can trust Iranians, according to an interview with ABC News. Trump added that talks will take place only in Islamabad and resume over the weekend.
He added that he doesn’t think there are many significant differences, while saying that the US will be working with Tehran to remove its enriched uranium. Trump added that Iran would not be receiving money for the exchange, commenting that reports of a $20 billion payment are “fake news.”
Key highlights:
Steve [Witkoff] and Jared [Kushner] will be going out, and maybe J.D. [Vance]. Haven’t spoken to J.D. about that yet
Islamabad only. I’m not interested in going to countries that didn’t help.
They want to make a deal. They want to make some money, you know. ... They’re not making any money as long as I have the blockade,
NATO called me and said, ‘Is there anything we can do?’ And I said, ‘Yeah, stay away.'
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s March 2026 core and headline inflation to rise to 1.6% and 1.8% year-on-year, from 1.4% and 1.2% in February. The report links this to imported energy price pressures after the Middle East conflict. Higher costs are likely in transport and travel services, while electricity, gas and food price pressures remain contained for now.
Energy-driven uptick in March inflation
"Singapore’s inflation data for March 2026 will likely reflect the initial impact of the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict."
"We expect core and headline inflation to rise to 1.6% yoy and 1.8% yoy, respectively, in March, up from 1.4% yoy and 1.2% yoy in February."
"The increase was likely driven by a pickup in imported energy price pressures amid spikes in global crude oil, refined petroleum, and gas prices."
"This likely translated into higher inflation in categories such as point-to-point transport services, travel-related services due to airfare increases, and private transport, while upside price pressures in electricity & gas and food remain contained for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan assesses how Artificial Intelligence (AI) may affect productivity and whether the European Union (EU) could gain an advantage over the United States (US). He notes that AI’s productivity impact remains largely potential, but argues that education structures and skill distributions across workforces in the US, key European economies and the United Kingdom (UK) could shape relative competitiveness as AI adoption spreads.
AI productivity and education-driven edge
"The potential for the shiny new toy of artificial intelligence to generate productivity is still more an ideal than a reality."
"But adopting any new technology should eventually improve economic efficiency (otherwise, why change?)."
"As investor interest broadens out to the application of technology, will any economy have a competitive advantage in using AI?"
"Academic work suggests that if AI improves an individual’s productivity, it will boost low-skilled workers’ productivity proportionately more."
"If AI productivity gains are unevenly distributed, and disproportionately benefit workers with mid-level education, the US may be at a competitive disadvantage relative to other major economies."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rallies above $81, posting its fourth straight week of gains.
- RSI breakout confirms strengthening bullish momentum and upside potential.
- Break above $83.05 exposes $85.44 and $90.00 resistance levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price surges over 4% on Friday, reclaiming $81.00 a troy ounce as the Greenback gets battered on positive news around the Middle East conflict. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a second round of talks between the US and Iran pushed precious metals higher, and the white metal is no exception. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $81.82.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The white metal advanced steadily on Friday, rallying for the fourth straight week and reaching a five-week high at $83.06 before retreating to $81.00. Price action seems constructive, and if Silver closes the day above the latter, it opens the door to challenging $90.00 in the short term.
Momentum turned bullish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) cleared a previous peak, hinting that bulls are gathering some steam. Hence, in the short term, Silver’s could aim higher.
The next key resistance would be the March 13 high at $85.44, followed by the March 12 high at $87.43, followed by the March 11 peak at $89.42. Up next lies the $90.00 milestone.
Downwards, if XAG/USD tumbles below a key support trendline at around $77.65-$77.85, expect further losses. The next support would be the 100-day SMA at $77.24, followed by the 20-day SMA at $73.77.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
DBS Group Research economists highlight that China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year, driven by strong external demand and resilient industrial production, while domestic demand in consumption, investment and credit stayed weak. Improving PPI and CPI readings reduce urgency for aggressive monetary easing, leading DBS to scale back its 2026 1Y LPR cut forecast to 10 basis points.
External resilience, softer domestic momentum
"China’s economic growth accelerated from 4.5%yoy in Q4 2025 to 5.0% in Q1 2026, started of with a solid footing. Industrial activity remained well supported by strong external demand, while domestic momentum stayed uneven, with consumption, investment, and credit growth subdued amid persistent property sector stress and ongoing capacity reduction efforts."
"External trade momentum remained robust. Exports grew 14.7% yoy in Q1, despite a moderation in March amid Middle East-related disruptions."
"Industrial activity stayed resilient, supported by strong export momentum. Industrial production grew 6.1% yoy in Q1, despite ongoing “anti-involution” measures aimed at curbing excess capacity."
"Price dynamics improved further. PPI returned to positive territory at 0.5% yoy in March, after 41 months of contraction, driven by higher raw material prices amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing capacity adjustment."
"Accordingly, we revise our 2026 easing expectations to a 10bp cut in the 1Y LPR, from 20bp previously, reflecting a more measured policy stance."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
