Forex News
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady and rangebound, supported by bond market dynamics but capped by softer energy prices and equity volatility. USD/CAD trades slightly below fair value, with resistance near 1.38 and support in the low 1.37s keeping price action contained, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
USMCA comments limit USD upside
"The CAD is little changed on the session and remains generally rangebound. Trends in cash bond and swap spreads remain CAD-supportive but equity market volatility and softer energy prices are moderate headwinds for the CAD. The CAD’s fair value estimate has slipped a little as a result (1.3805 this morning), leaving the USD still trading at a slight discount to its estimated equilibrium."
"That may restrain the CAD somewhat and help sustain range trading for now. Bloomberg reported late yesterday that USTR Greer had indicated to US lawmakers in a briefing that he supports the US remaining in the USMCA but the president will keep his options open."
"The CAD has slipped into a sideways range trade after the early week drop to the low 1.37 area. The ceiling on funds looks fairly solid at 1.3790/00. A push above here may see the USD rebound extend to the mid/upper 1.38s. Support is 1.3725/30."
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Follow FXStreet's ECB Live Coverage here
ECB press conference key quotes
"Eurozone economy is resilient."
"Service-led growth to continue in near term."
"Domestic demand main growth engine in years ahead."
"Savings rate should come down."
"Government expenditure on infrastructure and defense should underpin investment."
"Global environment is likely to remain a drag."
"Underlying inflation remains consistent with 2% medium-term target."
"Wage growth to ease in coming quarters before stabilising below 3% towards end-2026."
"Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations continue to stand at around 2%."
"Trade tensions have eased but volatile environment remains a risk."
"Outlook for inflation continues to be more uncertain than usual."
"Stronger Euro could bring down inflation."
This section below was published at 13:15 GMT to cover the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcements and the immediate market reaction.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it left key rates unchanged following the December policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
Key takeaways from ECB policy statement
" New Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028."
"Updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term."
"For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028."
"Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly."
"ECB is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term."
"Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand."
"Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028."
"Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance."
"Interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it."
"Not pre-committing to a particular rate path."
"APP and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as Eurosystem no longer reinvests principal payments from maturing securities."
Market reaction to ECB rate decision
EUR/USD recovered from session lows with the immediate reaction to the ECB policy announcements and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at 1.1736.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.19% | -0.08% | 0.10% | 0.56% | 0.57% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.11% | 0.05% | 0.54% | 0.53% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.21% | 0.28% | 0.77% | 0.75% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.21% | 0.17% | 0.65% | 0.62% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.28% | -0.17% | 0.49% | 0.48% | -0.20% | |
| AUD | -0.56% | -0.54% | -0.77% | -0.65% | -0.49% | -0.02% | -0.83% | |
| NZD | -0.57% | -0.53% | -0.75% | -0.62% | -0.48% | 0.02% | -0.81% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | 0.28% | 0.07% | -0.04% | 0.20% | 0.83% | 0.81% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decisions at 04:00 GMT.
- The European Central Bank is expected to hold key rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday.
- ECB President Lagarde is unlikely to offer fresh clues in the press conference following the announcement.
- EUR/USD could revisit the year’s peak at around 1.1920 in the upcoming days.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its last two-day meeting of the year and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Financial markets anticipate the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting after reducing them on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility in June to 2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%, respectively.
The ECB will also present fresh macroeconomic projections, with the focus on growth and inflation. Finally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference to explain the reasoning behind policymakers’ decision.
Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias, despite a near-term retracement, driven mainly by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?
The ECB has been among the first to cut interest rates and reach a neutral rate. President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly stated that monetary policy is in a “good place,” meaning it is well-positioned to address the current macroeconomic environment. Still, Lagarde has left the door open to any required direction, stating that decisions are data-dependent and that there is a meeting-by-meeting approach with no predetermined path.
There are good reasons to believe that she will stick to such a message: On the one hand, the Governing Council has noted that, despite headwinds, the Euro area economy has shown notable resilience. On the other hand, inflation has indeed been higher than expected, but held within reasonable levels. According to the latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), annualized inflation rose by 2.1% in November, while the core annual HICP remained stable at 2.4%.
With no changes in interest rates and, most likely, in Lagarde’s words, investors will be taking clues from economic projections. Relative to September’s projections, both inflation and growth have been higher than expected. Yet as noted, inflation at 2.1% YoY is not a concern. Policymakers are likely to revise Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and HICP projections, with inflation most likely revised higher this year and lower in the next two years.
Regarding growth, policymakers seem more optimistic than the recent figures suggest. The latest Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings show economic progress remains tepid across the bloc. A rise in Eurozone business activity in December completed a full calendar year of growth for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to provisional PMI survey data. That said, the latest expansion in output was modest and the slowest in three months. GDP revisions will be interesting to see.
Finally, speculative interest will be watching whether officials maintain the hawkish view that denies the odds for additional rate cuts in the foreseeable future.
Analysts at BNP Paribas noted: “The publication of the new macroeconomic projections should also confirm the upward revision of growth forecasts for 2026. Against this backdrop, we believe that the ECB is unlikely to cut its policy rate any further and that its next move could even be an increase (in Q3 2027). This environment, against a backdrop of more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, should lead to additional upward pressure on bond yields in 2026, with the 10-year Bund exceeding 3% in the second half of 2026, according to our forecasts.”
How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?
As previously noted, the EUR/USD pair trades with a modest bullish bias heading into the year-end. Generally speaking, a hawkish ECB monetary policy decision should back demand for the Euro (EUR), while a dovish outcome should put pressure on the local currency. The general consensus is that the ECB will maintain its hawkish stance, particularly if President Lagarde repeats the message that the ECB is in a good place, coupled with downward revisions to inflation and upward revisions to growth expectations.
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is mostly bullish, although solely depending on USD demand. The EUR has little life of its own lately, and the ECB announcement will likely have a reduced impact on the EUR.”
Bednarik adds: “Within the ECB decision, the US will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which may trigger some volatile price action. Higher-than-anticipated inflation figures will likely boost speculation of additional rate cuts in the US, leading to some USD weakness, while the opposite scenario is also valid. Keeping that in mind, EUR/USD peaked at 1.1804 this December, the immediate resistance level. Once beyond it, the pair may retest the 2025 peak at 1.1918. Near-term support lies at 1.1690, followed by the 1.1620/40 price zone. A slide towards the latter should attract buyers.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Follow FXStreet's ECB Live Coverage here
Key quotes
"Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations continue to stand at around 2%."
"Trade tensions have eased but volatile environment remains a risk."
"Outlook for inflation continues to be more uncertain than usual."
"Stronger Euro could bring down inflation."
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the December policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Follow FXStreet's ECB Live Coverage here
Key quotes
"Eurozone economy is resilient."
"Service-led growth to continue in near term."
"Domestic demand main growth engine in years ahead."
"Savings rate should come down."
"Government expenditure on infrastructure and defense should underpin investment."
"Global environment is likely to remain a drag."
"Underlying inflation remains consistent with 2% medium-term target."
"Wage growth to ease in coming quarters before stabilising below 3% towards end-2026."
- EUR/USD rebounds after the ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations.
- The ECB sticks to a data-dependent approach as updated projections point to inflation returning to target over time.
- Softer US inflation data weighs on the US Dollar, offering support to the Euro.
The Euro (EUR) regains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its three key policy rates unchanged. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1756, reversing higher after dipping to an intraday low near 1.1712.
The ECB left borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. The interest rates on the Deposit Facility, the Main Refinancing Operations and the Marginal Lending Facility were kept steady at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40%, respectively, in line with market expectations.
The Governing Council reiterated its commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term. Policymakers stressed that future decisions will remain data-dependent and taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by the inflation outlook, incoming economic and financial data, underlying price dynamics and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. The ECB also underlined that it is not pre-committing to a specific rate path.
The ECB’s latest staff projections show inflation moving back toward the 2% target over the medium term. Headline inflation is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, ease to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, before returning to 2.0% in 2028. The ECB noted that the 2026 inflation outlook was revised higher as services inflation is now expected to cool more slowly.
The ECB also upgraded its growth outlook compared with the September forecasts. The Eurozone economy is now expected to grow 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, with growth seen holding at 1.4% in 2028, supported mainly by domestic demand.
Further supporting the Euro, the US Dollar came under pressure after the latest US inflation report surprised to the downside, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver further monetary policy easing into 2026.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% YoY in November, missing market expectations of 3.1% and easing from 3.0% in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also slowed to 2.6% YoY from 3.0%, below forecasts of 3.0%.
However, firmer-than-expected US labour market data offered some support to the US Dollar. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 224K, slightly below expectations of 225K and down from the previous 237K.
Attention now turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, which could shape near-term expectations for the Euro.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- Initial Jobless Claims in the US fell by 13,000 in the week ending December 13.
- The US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 98.50.
There were 224,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending December 13, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 225,000.
In this period, the 4-week moving average declined by 5,00 to 217,500.
"The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 6 was 1,897,000, an increase of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level," the DOL noted in its press release.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index stays on the back foot and was last seen losing 0.1% on the day at 98.30.
Annual inflation in the United States (US), as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.7% in November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 3.1%.
In this period, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, falling short of analysts' estimates for an increase of 3%.
Follow our live coverage of the US Consumer Price Index data and the market reaction.
Market reaction to US CPI data
The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure with the immediate reaction. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.1% on the day at 98.30.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.22% | 0.03% | 0.42% | 0.40% | -0.27% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.50% | 0.44% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | 0.29% | 0.23% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 0.72% | 0.66% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.22% | 0.09% | -0.25% | 0.19% | 0.59% | 0.54% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.31% | -0.19% | 0.40% | 0.37% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.42% | -0.50% | -0.72% | -0.59% | -0.40% | -0.05% | -0.71% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.44% | -0.66% | -0.54% | -0.37% | 0.05% | -0.67% | |
| CHF | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.15% | 0.71% | 0.67% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 04:00 GMT.
- The US Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY in November, slightly higher compared with September.
- The inflation report will not include monthly CPI figures.
- November inflation data could drive the US Dollar’s valuation by altering January Fed rate cut expectations.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.
The inflation report will not include CPI figures for October and will not offer monthly CPI prints for November, due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown. Hence, investors will scrutinize the annual CPI and core CPI prints to assess how inflation dynamics could influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
As measured by the change in the CPI, inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November, edging up from September’s 3% reading. The core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is also forecast to rise 3% in this period.
TD Securities analysts expect annual inflation to rise at a stronger pace than anticipated but see the core inflation holding steady. “We look for the US CPI to rise 3.2% y/y in November – its fastest pace since 2024. The increase will be driven by rising energy prices, as we look for the core CPI to remain steady at 3.0%,” they explain.
How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect the US Dollar?
Heading into the US inflation showdown on Thursday, investors see a nearly 20% probability of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in January, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The BLS’ delayed official employment report showed on Tuesday that Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000 in October and rose by 64,000 in November. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. These figures failed to alter the market pricing of the January Fed decision as the sharp decline seen in payrolls in October was not surprising, given the loss of government jobs during the shutdown.
In a blog post published late Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued that the mixed jobs report did not change the policy outlook and added that there are “multiple surveys” that suggest there are higher input costs and that firms are determined to preserve their margins by increasing prices.
A noticeable increase, with a print of 3.3% or higher, in the headline annual CPI inflation, could reaffirm a Fed policy hold in January and boost the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the flip side, a soft annual inflation print of 2.8% or lower could cause market participants to lean toward a January Fed rate cut. In this scenario, the USD could come under heavy selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY) and explains:
“The near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact for the USD Index, but there are signs pointing to a loss in negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart recovers above 40 and the USD Index holds above the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the September-November uptrend.”
“The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a pivot level at 98.60. In case the USD Index rises above this level and confirms it as support, technical sellers could be discouraged. In this scenario, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement could act as the next resistance level at 98.85 ahead of the 99.25-99.40 region, where the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement are located.”
“On the downside, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level forms a key support level at 98.00 before 97.40 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 97.00 (round level).”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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