Forex News
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that while geopolitical risks stay elevated, valuation metrics such as REER now show meaningful Rupiah undervaluation versus the US Dollar. The bank’s base case is for near-term Rupiah stabilisation, with USD/IDR seen at 17,000 by end-Q2 and gradually improving Rupiah performance as policy support and flows strengthen.
MUFG sees scope for gradual recovery
"Geopolitical risks remain elevated, but valuations are turning more compelling, with REER pointing to meaningful rupiah undervaluation versus the US dollar."
"Active policy intervention has helped suppress FX volatility and slow the pace of USDIDR gains, while Indonesia’s sovereign CDS spreads have narrowed."
"USDIDR has also moved into overbought territory, reducing the risk-reward of chasing USD upside at current levels."
"Our base case is for near‑term rupiah stabilisation rather than a disorderly depreciation."
"We maintain our end‑Q2 USDIDR forecast at 17,000 and expect a gradual improvement in rupiah performance in subsequent quarters as stabilisation forces build."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- UK headline CPI rose 0.7% MoM in March, beating the 0.6% forecast, while core CPI cooled to 3.1% YoY from 3.2% prior.
- Thursday's UK flash PMIs are seen slipping into contraction, with Manufacturing forecast at 49.9 and Composite at 49.8.
- Friday's UK retail sales and US UoM inflation expectations round out a busy week for both currencies.
GBP/USD was little changed on Wednesday, settling close to 1.3510 after a choppy session that reached 1.3540 in London hours before fading toward 1.3490. Price has been pinned inside a 65-pip band through midweek, with long upper and lower wicks pointing to two-way uncertainty.
UK inflation data dominated Wednesday's London session. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% MoM in March, slightly above the 0.6% consensus, with the annual rate edging up to 3.3% YoY, though core CPI cooled to 3.1% YoY against the 3.2% expected, tempering the hawkish read. The UK calendar stays busy from Thursday, with flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys expected to show Manufacturing and Composite activity slipping into contraction at 49.9 and 49.8 respectively, and GfK Consumer Confidence seen deteriorating to -25 from -21. Friday's UK Retail Sales are forecast at 0.2% MoM, a tentative rebound from the -0.4% print in February.
On the US side, Thursday brings flash PMIs, with Services expected to return to the 50 threshold after a brief dip into contraction and Manufacturing holding near 52.5, alongside Initial Jobless Claims at 212K against 207K prior. Friday's University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment and inflation expectations cap off the week, with one-year inflation expectations seen steady at 4.8%. Broader direction for the US Dollar stays anchored by the Strait of Hormuz closure and elevated crude, while market hopes for a US-Iran resolution have softened as goalposts continue to shift.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3506, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains under the day’s open at 1.3517, which now acts as immediate intraday resistance. The Stochastic RSI has retreated from earlier overbought readings toward mid-range levels near 40, suggesting fading upside momentum after the latest pullback.
On the topside, the day’s open at 1.3517 is the first hurdle bulls need to reclaim to ease the current downside pressure and open the way to a more constructive recovery. On the downside, the absence of nearby mapped supports leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely to monitor psychological round levels below 1.3500 as potential areas where dip-buying interest could emerge.
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3501. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as price stands above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which trend higher and suggest an underlying constructive tone. The elevated Stochastic RSI around 87 signals overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is stretched even as the broader setup remains supported by the rising medium-term averages.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50-day EMA near 1.3427, with the 200-day EMA around 1.3357 reinforcing a deeper demand zone on pullbacks. As long as the pair holds above these moving averages, buyers are likely to defend dips, though the overbought Stochastic RSI warns that consolidation or a corrective pause could precede any sustained extension of the uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Japan's March trade surplus hit ¥667B as exports rose 11.7% YoY, though imports came in hot at 10.9% on energy costs.
- Elevated crude tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure continued to pressure Yen amid Japan's reliance on imported energy.
- Thursday's Japan CPI and US PMI data will test Yen direction, with Friday's UoM inflation expectations also in focus.
USD/JPY was little changed on Wednesday, hovering close to 159.50 in a narrow session after Tuesday's push to 159.64. Price has been confined between 159.10 and 159.60 through the midweek stretch, with overlapping small-bodied candles pointing to indecision.
Japan's March trade data released late Tuesday showed a ¥667 billion surplus, coming in well below the ¥1,106 billion consensus as imports ran hot at 10.9% YoY versus a 7.1% forecast. Exports climbed 11.7% YoY, outpacing expectations, but the Strait of Hormuz closure has kept crude oil prices high, inflating Japan's energy import bill and weighing on Yen. Market hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran conflict have softened as goalposts continue to shift, though any genuine de-escalation would likely spark a risk-on rotation and broad US Dollar weakness.
On the US side, Thursday brings Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 212K, prior 207K) alongside preliminary April S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, with Services forecast to return to the 50 threshold after a brief dip into contraction and Manufacturing seen near 52.5. Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) also lands Thursday, with the core measure excluding fresh food expected at 1.8% YoY versus 1.6% prior, a hotter print likely to fuel renewed BoJ hike speculation. Friday's University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment and inflation expectations round out the week, with one-year inflation expectations forecast steady at 4.8% amid the supply-shock impulse from elevated crude.
USD/JPY 15-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the fifteen-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.48. The pair is consolidating in a tight range around the intraday area, with no nearby moving averages or structural levels to provide clear directional cues. The Stochastic RSI has retreated toward lower readings near 30, hinting that bearish momentum has cooled after earlier overbought conditions, but price action remains broadly range-bound for now.
With no major exponential moving averages or Fibonacci levels in play on this timeframe, short-term traders are likely to focus on price behavior around the 159 handle and the recent intraday highs and lows to gauge a breakout or continuation. A sustained move away from the current consolidation band, accompanied by a turn higher or lower in the Stochastic RSI from its subdued zone, would help define the next directional impulse in USD/JPY on the very short-term horizon.
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.48, holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above both the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.25 and the 200-period EMA at 154.93. The configuration of price above these key trend EMAs suggests that the broader uptrend remains intact, although the Stochastic RSI near 31.9 hints that upside momentum has cooled after the recent advance, leaving the pair vulnerable to bouts of consolidation or shallow pullbacks within the prevailing bullish structure.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA around 158.25, with a deeper cushion at the 200-day EMA near 154.93 should sellers gain traction. As long as USD/JPY holds above the 50-day EMA on closing bases, dips are likely to be treated as corrective within the broader uptrend, while a sustained break beneath this level would be needed to signal a more meaningful deterioration in the bullish outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Kiwi capped as the US Dollar holds firm on safe-haven flows tied to ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Softer US yields are capping gains in NZD/USD, while weakening risk appetite continues to restrict further upside.
- Oil-driven inflation fears support the greenback, while markets scale back bets on Fed easing.
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5910 region on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) maintains a firm footing despite a modest pullback in US Treasury yields.
The Greenback continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, with markets remaining on edge following fresh developments in the Middle East. Although a ceasefire extension between the United States and Iran initially provided some relief, renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising Oil prices have kept risk sentiment fragile, limiting demand for higher-beta currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
At the same time, US yields drifting lower have prevented a more aggressive upside in the USD, allowing NZD/USD to stabilize after recent losses. However, this support has proven shallow, as investors continue to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Expectations for rate cuts remain limited, with markets still pricing a relatively cautious easing cycle.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5907, holding a constructive near-term bias as it sits above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.5897 and the 100-period SMA near 0.5825. The clustering of short- and medium-term SMAs below spot suggests underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 signals modest bullish momentum without venturing into overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support emerges at 0.5902, ahead of 0.5897, a level reinforced by the nearby 20-period SMA, with the 100-period SMA down at 0.5825 marking a more distant floor. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.5921, followed by 0.5924; a break above these hurdles would open the way toward 0.5965.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
OCBC’s Christopher Wong observes that USD/KRW’s earlier decline has stalled, with bearish momentum fading and RSI recovering from oversold territory. He sees scope for a rebound toward 1492, with support at 1460/64, before a positive sentiment turn could favour a proxy sell-rally in USD/KRW, though timing depends on how long it takes for US or Iran to “blink” in ceasefire talks.
Short-term rebound before renewed downside
"So, this is a state where 2-way trading is very much alive. On a FX technical point of view, there were short term bullish signals for a few pairs, including USD/KRW, USD/SGD, USD/TWD."
"For USD/KRW, bearish momentum shows signs of fading while RSI rose from oversold conditions. Support at 1460/64 levels"
"Near-term risk may fade, but a breakthrough could spark a risk‑on surge, favouring a proxy sell rally in USD/KRW."
"A positive turnaround in sentiments (when it happens) should be supportive of proxy sell rally trade in USDKRW, but the risk is how long it takes for US or Iran to blink."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Risk appetite lifted equities, but a firmer Greenback capped Aussie upside.
- Trump’s truce extension and vessel seizures kept Hormuz tensions in focus.
- Traders now await US jobless claims and Australian flash PMIs.
AUD/USD is stuck within a range as Middle East geopolitical tensions remain high, with US President Trump extending the ceasefire while Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, risk appetite sent the S&P 500 to an all-time high, while currencies leaned into the Greenback’s dynamics, which recovered some ground.
Aussie stays rangebound as geopolitics overshadow key data prints
The AUD/USD trades at 0.7160, up 0.12% as geopolitical headlines dominate the market’s narrative, leaving macroeconomic data aside. Trump’s decision to extend the truce is to allow Iran’s leadership to unify opinions and present a proposal to the US, as he said Iran’s top officials were in disarray, as revealed by Al Jazeera.
The Strait of Hormuz remains shut by both sides, with the US blockade remaining in place and seizing Iran-flagged tankers, while Iran did the same, seizing two cargo ships.
On the data front, the US economic docket remained absent on Wednesday, but on Thursday, data flows normalize. Traders will eye the release of Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending April 18, with economists projecting that 212K people filed for unemployment benefits, up from the prior week’s 207K.
In addition, April’s S&P Global Flash PMIs are awaited, with the manufacturing and services PMIs forecast to expand to 52.5 and 50, respectively.
In Australia, the schedule will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs for April, which in March contracted with the Manufacturing PMI coming at 49.8, while the Services PMI printed 46.3
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7156, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the clustered 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around 0.7048 and respects the rising near-term trend-line support derived from the 0.6897 base, now coming in near 0.7057. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests steady bullish momentum without entering overbought territory, hinting that dips are likely to attract buyers while the broader uptrend off last year’s lows remains intact.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent closing area around 0.7156, with stronger demand likely emerging toward the rising trend-line and long-term SMA cluster between 0.7057 and 0.7048. On the topside, bulls face successive resistance from the medium-term ascending structure, with the first noteworthy cap implied by the higher support trend line’s break level at 0.7495, followed by the more significant structural barriers near 0.7765 and the long-term descending trend-line resistance originating at 0.8015.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | -0.15% | 0.43% | -0.12% | -0.45% | -0.80% | 0.39% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.43% | 0.13% | -0.38% | -0.71% | -1.13% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.15% | 0.43% | 0.56% | 0.04% | -0.27% | -0.69% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | -0.43% | -0.13% | -0.56% | -0.56% | -0.82% | -1.24% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.12% | 0.38% | -0.04% | 0.56% | -0.23% | -0.66% | 0.50% | |
| AUD | 0.45% | 0.71% | 0.27% | 0.82% | 0.23% | -0.35% | 0.81% | |
| NZD | 0.80% | 1.13% | 0.69% | 1.24% | 0.66% | 0.35% | 1.19% | |
| CHF | -0.39% | -0.10% | -0.52% | 0.04% | -0.50% | -0.81% | -1.19% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Societe Generale analysts Kunal Kundu and Galvin Chia note that Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate at 4.75% and retained its 2.5% ±1% inflation target, emphasizing a stability-first approach. They highlight that the central bank sees no urgency to tighten further and is resisting premature easing as it prioritizes currency stabilization and manages risks from Oil prices and Middle East-related global spillovers.
Bank Indonesia prioritizes currency stabilization
"As expected, Bank Indonesia (BI) held the policy rate at 4.75%, sticking to its stability-first playbook amid elevated global spillovers."
"It also maintained the 2.5% ±1% inflation target, supported by fiscal buffers, signalling no urgency to tighten further, while pushing back against premature easing."
"With “on-again, off-again” ceasefire hopes still alive, BI is betting the oil shock is short-lived."
"But with the Iran conflict’s endgame still uncertain, the central bank is rightly choosing caution."
"BI framed the hold as consistent with strengthening currency stabilisation amid a deterioration in global conditions linked to Middle East conflict."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/SGD has rebounded on stalled US–Iran ceasefire talks, with fading bearish momentum and rising RSI. He highlights resistance around 1.2750/60 and key support at 1.2670, arguing that Singapore Dollar (SGD) has behaved as a regional defensive currency and may eventually underperform higher-beta peers like Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), South Korean Won (KRW), Australian Dollar (AUD) and Taiwan Dollar (TWD) once markets rotate from defence to rebound.
Defensive SGD may later lag high beta FX
"USD/SGD rebounded overnight following the stalemate in US-Iran ceasefire talks."
"Bearish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI rose. Resistance at 1.2750/60 levels (50 DMA, 50% fibo), 1.28 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo). Key support at 1.2670 (76.4% fibo). Decisive break puts next support at 1.2620, 1.2590 levels. "
"Taking stock on SGD moves so far, one can describe that SGD behaves like a regional defensive currency. During the Iran-war shock phase (defined as 1 Mar to before ceasefire announcement), SGD held better against most Asian peers, including JPY, KRW, THB, PHP and MYR."
"On relative terms, SGD’s resilience against some FX can last as long as the geopolitical backdrop stays uncertain enough to keep demand for lower-beta Asian currencies intact. When the immediate geopolitical stress fades and markets rotate back into pro-cyclical and tradesensitive currencies, especially those linked to tech, global growth and broader risk recovery. "
"Then the SGD strength may fade and could even underperform some of the higher-beta currencies on a relative basis once markets move from “defence” to “rebound.” So, in a way, there is room for MYR, KRW, AUD or TWD to play catch-up in a relief/risk-on environment."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- GBP/JPY holds above 215.00 but struggles to extend recent gains.
- RSI trends lower, signaling weakening bullish momentum at highs.
- Break below 215.00 exposes 214.41 and 214.00 support levels.
GBP/JPY trades sideways on Wednesday, clinging to three consecutive days of gains, as market mood remains neutral, though slightly tilted toward optimism, amid high tensions in the Middle East. Consequently, the British Pound (GBP) —a risk-sensitive currency—appreciated modestly, with the cross-pair remaining above the 215.00 figure for the second straight day.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical standpoint, the uptrend seems overextended, with GBP/JPY poised to stall unless a clear catalyst pushes the cross past the yearly peak of 215.91, ahead of the 220.00 figure.
Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is aiming lower, an indication that buyers are losing traction.
If GBP/JPY clears 220.00, the next resistance would be the December 2007 swing high at 230.37. A breach of the latter will expose the October 2007 peak at around 241.39.
On the flip side, if GBP/JPY drops below 215.00, the next demand zone will be the Tuesday daily low at 214.41. On further weakness, the next support would be the April 17 daily low of 214.00, ahead of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.25.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | -0.18% | 0.40% | -0.16% | -0.52% | -0.79% | 0.34% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | -0.41% | 0.13% | -0.38% | -0.72% | -1.07% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.41% | 0.56% | 0.02% | -0.32% | -0.66% | 0.51% | |
| JPY | -0.40% | -0.13% | -0.56% | -0.56% | -0.87% | -1.21% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | 0.38% | -0.02% | 0.56% | -0.26% | -0.65% | 0.50% | |
| AUD | 0.52% | 0.72% | 0.32% | 0.87% | 0.26% | -0.27% | 0.85% | |
| NZD | 0.79% | 1.07% | 0.66% | 1.21% | 0.65% | 0.27% | 1.14% | |
| CHF | -0.34% | -0.10% | -0.51% | 0.04% | -0.50% | -0.85% | -1.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
(This story was corrected on April 22 at 19:33 GMT to say that the 20-day Simple Moving Average is at 213.25, not 313.25)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
