Forex News

• EUR/USD drops on resilient US PMIs, while risk aversion boosts the Greenback.
• UoM sentiment plunges close to its record low, consumers frustrated with inflation and income.
• Although Fed officials deliver mixed messages, markets price a 71% chance of a December rate cut.

EUR/USD posts moderate losses during the North American session on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm after the release of mixed economic data and dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The pair trades at 1.1504, down 0.20%, after hitting a two-week low of 1.1491.

Euro retreats 0.20% as weak US sentiment contrasts with firmer PMIs, markets rise December cut odds

Data in the US was mixed, yet the economy shows signs of resilience. The S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were mixed in November but revealed that business confidence had improved.

Other data showed that American households turned pessimistic about the economic outlook, according to the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for November. Sentiment hit its lowest level since 2009, as consumers remain frustrated about high prices and weakening incomes.

After the data, the EUR/USD’s reaction was muted, as traders digested mixed comments from many Federal Reserve officials.

Dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Stephen Miran boosted investor expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. Conversely, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued for maintaining a restrictive policy stance, signaling support for keeping rates unchanged.

Given the backdrop, market participants had priced in a 71% chance of a December rate cut, a sharp jump from around 31% earlier in the day.

Daily market movers: Euro’s tumble despite Fed’s dovish tilt

• New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers could still cut rates in the “near-term,” a remark that lifted market odds for a December move. Echoing that tone, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data supports a December rate cut, adding that if his vote were decisive, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
• On the other side, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that rates need to remain on hold “for a time” while the Fed evaluates the impact of current policy on inflation, saying she finds it “difficult” to support a cut in December. Boston Fed President Susan Collins agreed, stressing that a “restrictive policy is very appropriate right now.”
• The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.9 in November from 52.5, coming in just below the 52 consensus. In contrast, the Services PMI edged up to 55 from 54.8, topping expectations and signaling continued resilience in the sector.
• Separately, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose in November to 51 from a preliminary 50.3, beating forecasts but posting a decline from October's reading of 53.6. Inflation expectations improved, with the one-year outlook easing to 4.5% from 4.7% and the five-year measure falling to 3.4% from 3.6%.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls for September rose by 119K, doubling estimates of 50,000. Despite registering a solid number, the Unemployment Rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.4% but it remained within the Federal Reserve’s projections.
• European Central Bank (ECB) speakers crossed the wires. Joachim Nagel said that he is confident that the central bank will fulfill its inflation mandate. The ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said that risks to growth are balanced and that the policy rate is at an appropriate level.
• Eurozone manufacturing activity fell back into contraction territory in November, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.7 from October’s 50 and missing expectations for an improvement to 50.2. The Services PMI increased to 53.1 versus forecasts of a hold in 53.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD downtrend resumes as bears gain traction

EUR/USD extended its losses and hovers around 1.1500 after reaching a daily low of 1.1491. A daily close below the former would open the door for further downside. The next support levels would be 1.1491, the November 5 daily low at 1.1468, and the 200-day SMA near 1.1405.

For a bullish reversal, buyers must clear the 20-day SMA at 1.1566, followed by the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.1641/1.1650. Up next lies 1.1700.

• The Dow Jones recovered over 700 points on Friday as equities recover their footing.
• Fed officials may be leaning further toward a December interest rate cut than previously expected.
• Rumors are swirling that the Trump administration may allow Nvidia to sell Ai chips in Chinese markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) caught a healthy rebound on Friday, climbing over 700 points to round out an otherwise bearish trading week. Key Federal Reserve (Fed) officials sounded more willing to deliver an upcoming interest rate cut than rate markets previously expected, bolstering investor sentiment across the board, and the Trump administration is rumored to be weighing another walkback on arbitrary tech trade restrictions aimed at China.

Despite Friday upswing, indexes still on the defensive

Despite an upbeat Friday session, the Dow is still in the red for the week, down 1.33% from the previous week’s close and mired in defensive technical territory near the 46,000 handle. The major equity index has closed bearish for all but one of the last six straight trading days, and Friday’s upswing is pushing the Dow into a tricky technical zone that includes old support zones that may act as resistance moving forward, as well as key moving averages, which could turn into price action ceilings.

December Fed rate cut back on the table

Fed Bank of New York President John Williams stated on Friday morning that he sees a high likelihood of a “further adjustment in the near term” for interest rates, sending markets piling back into bets of a third straight interest rate cut on December 10. Divisions within the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have widened in recent months, giving traders a wide array of policy opinions to focus on. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a third consecutive quarter-point rate trim on December 10, versus the roughly 40% odds that were on the tape as recently as Thursday afternoon.

The Trump administration has hit a steady stream of trade policy walkbacks and tariff cancellations over the past week, and the trade war cancellation train is beginning to gather steam. According to fresh rumors, the Trump team is weighing walking back its decision to restrict the sale of AI-focused chipsets to China. The move, if it goes through, would allow AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) to continue selling even more shovels during the LLM gold rush. The alleged topic on the table is Nvidia’s H200-series GPUs, which typically sell for around $30,000 and make up a growing bulk of Nvidia’s unsold product inventory, which has swelled rapidly over the past quarter.

Consumers tilt back toward hope

University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey results also came in better than expected, further bolstering investor sentiment to wrap up an overwhelmingly fearful week in markets. The UoM Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Indexes both rose more than expected for November, and 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also eased lower.

Dow Jones daily chart

• Japanese Yen firms on Friday as renewed intervention warnings from Tokyo trigger mild profit-taking in USD/JPY.
• USD/JPY eases from near ten-month highs around 157.89 but remains on course for a second straight weekly gain.
• Technicals show early signs of cooling, with momentum moderating, but the broader uptrend is still intact.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY snapping a four-day winning streak after fresh verbal intervention warnings from Tokyo prompted mild profit-taking.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 156.54, easing modestly from Thursday’s near ten-month high around 157.89, though it remains on track to secure a second consecutive weekly advance.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reiterated that authorities are ready to act against excessive currency moves, signalling rising discomfort with the pace of Yen depreciation. The warnings come as the Yen hovers near levels where Tokyo intervened in the past.

At the same time, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has acknowledged that the weak Yen is adding upward pressure to prices, fuelling expectations that policymakers may discuss the feasibility of tightening policy as early as December.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is showing the first signs of fatigue after failing to hold above 157.50, with Friday’s pullback marking the initial cooling phase of an otherwise aggressive rally.

The daily chart shows price easing from overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) slipping from near 70 to around 66, hinting at fading bullish momentum but not yet signalling a full reversal. Momentum also holds above the zero line and has begun to ease, indicating that buying pressure remains in place but is gradually moderating.

The broader trend structure, however, remains constructive. The pair continues to trade comfortably above the key moving averages, with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 154.30 providing the first layer of dynamic support, followed by the 50-day SMA around 151.60. As long as these zones hold, dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest.

Initial resistance is now seen at Thursday’s high around 157.89, followed by the psychological 158.00 handle. A decisive close above this zone would reopen the path toward the 160.00 area — a level widely watched by traders given the heightened risk of official intervention.

• Gold surges towards $4,100 after Fed officials signal openness to a December rate cut, boosting dovish bets.
• Market pricing for a December 25 bps cut jumps to 71% as Miran and Williams hint easing may be warranted.
• US data shows resilient activity but weak consumer sentiment, reinforcing uncertainty over the Fed’s next policy move.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains steady during the North American session on Friday as a Federal Reserve (Fed) officials opened the door for a cut at the December meeting. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,096, up by 0.53%, after hitting a daily high of $4,101.

XAU/USD edges higher despite mixed US data, sharply shifting rate cut expectations

Bullion has remained fluctuating during the last three days, as traders seem undecided on XAU’s next move. Speeches by Fed officials and the resumption of US economic data hint that the economy is solid, with a resilient labor market but elevated prices.

Comments from New York Fed John Williams and Governor Stephen Miran were dovish, prompting investors to increase the odds of a 25-bps rate cut at the December meeting. Conversely, Boston Fed Susan Collins and Dallas Lorie Logan opted to maintain a restrictive policy, holding rates unchanged.

Consequently, market participants see a 71% chance of a December rate cut, a sharp jump from around 31% earlier in the day.

The US economic docket showed that business activity remains firm, while Consumer Sentiment for November fell close to its record low, according to the University of Michigan. At the same time, inflation expectations were downwardly revised for one and a five-year period.

Daily market movers: Mixed US economic data, ignored by Gold bulls

• New York Fed John Williams said they can still cut rates in the “near-term”, which boosted odds for a December move. Echoing some of his words was Governor Stephen Miran, who said that Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data favors a December rate cut, and that if his vote was the marginal one, he “would vote for a 25-bps cut.”
• Dallas Fed Lorie Logan said that rates need to be on hold “for a time” while they assess the impact of current policy on inflation. She said she finds it “difficult” to cut in December. Boston Fed Susan Collins coincided with Logan adding that “restrictive policy is very appropriate right now.”
• The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from 52.5 to 51.9 in November, slightly below the 52 estimates. Conversely, the Services PMI improved from 54.8 to 55, above forecasts of 54.8. Survey comments showed that business confidence has improved, and that hopes for additional rate cuts and the government reopening “improved economic optimism.”
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November improved slightly to 51 from a preliminary 50.3, but declined compared to the 53.6 of the previous month and remains close to the record low of June 2022. Inflation expectations edged lower, for one year, from a preliminary 4.7% to 4.5%, and for five years, from 3.6% to 3.4%.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Thursday that Nonfarm Payrolls for September rose by 119K, doubling estimates of 50,000. Despite registering a solid number, the Unemployment Rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.4% but it remained within the Federal Reserve’s projections.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance versus six currencies, registers modest gains of 0.07% at 100.28. At the same time, US Treasury yields remain steady, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield standing at 4.08%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Gold prices, are falling two basis points to 1.84%.

Technical analysis: Gold bulls stepped in, pushing prices toward $4,100

Gold’s uptrend is resuming, but traders must achieve a daily close above $4,100. Once reached, the next stop would be $4,150 before testing the last cycle high of $4,245, November’s 13 peak.

Failure at $4,100 would expose $4,050 before diving to the November 18 swing low of $3,998, ahead of testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,981.

• WTI slides to fresh one-month lows, pressured by growing optimism around peace negotiations in Ukraine.
• Proposed talks reportedly include territorial concessions and could lead to softer sanctions on Russia, reinforcing expectations of increased global supply.
• Prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv overshadow an already fragile demand outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $57.60 on Friday at the time of writing, down 1.90% on the day. The Crude Oil extends its three-day losing streak, slipping below the $58.00 level as investors reassess geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe amid signs that a potential peace agreement in Ukraine may be taking shape.

According to multiple media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to work on a US-backed proposal that includes territorial concessions to Russia and a reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces. These points, considered unacceptable just months ago, fuel expectations that a compromise could emerge faster than initially anticipated. The possibility of easing international sanctions on Moscow would increase global Oil supply and deepen the bearish pressure on prices.

This shift coincides with the implementation of new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, an event already widely priced in by the market. In a scenario of diplomatic de-escalation, such measures could be softened, further strengthening expectations of increased Russian crude flows.

On the demand side, the backdrop remains fragile. Economic indicators released this week reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December, while the US Dollar (USD) remains strong. A firmer Greenback typically weighs on USD-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for international buyers.

Meanwhile, US Crude flows continue to adjust. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data confirmed a decline in commercial Crude inventories driven by strong exports, while increases in gasoline and distillate stocks point to weaker domestic demand, adding another layer of vulnerability to the market.

WTI remains under broad downward pressure as long as diplomatic momentum between Russia and Ukraine improves and global demand struggles to stabilize. Any rapid development on the geopolitical front could fuel heightened volatility in the short term.

WTI Technical Analysis: Remains bearish below descending trend line

WTI US Oil daily chart. Source: FXStreet

In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $57.68. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to slope lower, and price holds beneath it, maintaining a bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls to 39.82, below the 50 midline, underscoring soft momentum. A horizontal line offers support around $56.00, where a break would expose further downside.

The descending trend line from $69.99 limits recoveries, with resistance aligned near $60.34. A topside break would open room for a corrective bounce toward the 100-day SMA at $62.62. While capped below the trend barrier and the falling average, the risk stays skewed lower. Failure to clear resistance would keep bears in control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

• EUR/USD heads for its first weekly setback in three weeks, pressured by broad US Dollar strength.
• US S&P Global PMI beats expectations overall, with services strengthening and new orders rising at the fastest pace this year.
• Eurozone PMI shows uneven momentum, with services firm but manufacturing back in contraction.

The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, even as the Greenback trades broadly flat, with traders weighing fresh US economic data and rising bets on a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in December.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1500, on track for its first weekly decline after two consecutive weeks of gains. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 100.26, holding firm around its highest level in more than five months.

S&P Global’s preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report pointed to another month of solid economic momentum in November. The Composite PMI edged up to 54.8 from 54.6, marking a four-month high. The Services PMI strengthened to 55.0, rising from 54.8 and beating expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.9 from 52.5, missing the 52.0 forecast but still signalling expansion in factory activity.

The survey highlighted the strongest rise in new orders this year, alongside improving business confidence and steady job creation. However, price pressures intensified, with input costs climbing at one of the fastest rates in three years.

The University of Michigan survey offered a mildly upbeat signal for US consumers. The Consumer Expectations Index rose to 51.0, beating the forecast and previous reading of 49, while the Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 51.0 from 50.5, also coming in above expectations. Inflation expectations eased further, with the 1-year outlook slipping to 4.5% from 4.7% and the 5-year measure softening to 3.4% from 3.6%.

Beyond the data, December rate-cut bets revived sharply after New York Fed President John Williams signalled that a near-term policy adjustment remains on the table. Williams said he still sees room for a December rate cut, acknowledging that progress on inflation has “stalled,” even as he expects price growth to return to the 2% target by 2027. He added that economic activity has cooled and the labour market continues to ease gradually.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign nearly a 74% probability to a December rate cut, a sharp jump from roughly 31% earlier in the day.

Across the Atlantic, preliminary Eurozone PMI figures painted a softer picture of the region’s economic momentum. The HCOB Composite PMI slipped to 52.4 from 52.5, missing expectations. The Services PMI rose to an 18-month high at 53.1, outperforming forecasts, but this strength was offset by renewed weakness in manufacturing, where the Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.7, below the 50.2 consensus.

Germany remained the main drag on the readings, with activity slowing across both services and manufacturing, while France showed tentative signs of stabilisation thanks to a return to growth in its services sector.

• GBP/USD climbs to 1.3092 as traders raise odds of a December Fed cut following upbeat US sentiment data.
• US PMIs show resilient business activity, while Michigan survey reveals improving confidence and easing inflation expectations.
• Fed officials remain divided, with Logan and Collins urging caution as Williams and Miran signal support for near-term easing.

The Pound Sterling turns positive in the day as traders increase their bets that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at the December meeting. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3082 up 0.08%.

Sterling turns positive as improved US sentiment and dovish Fed voices lift December rate-cut expectations

The US economic docket revealed that business activity in the US remained solid according to S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI dipped from 52.5 to 51.9, slightly below the 52 estimates Conversely, the Services PMI improved from 54.6 to 54.8, above forecasts of 54.5. Comments of the survey showed that business confidence has improved, and that hopes for additional rate cuts and the government reopening “improved economic optimism.”

At the same time, the University of Michigan revealed that Consumer Sentiment in November, improved to 51 from 50.3, above forecasts. Inflation expectations edged lower, for one year from 4.7% to 4.5%, and for five years, from 3.6% to 3.4%.

Federal Reserve officials split between cutting or no cutting

On Friday, Dallas Fed Lorie Logan said that rates need to be on hold “for a time” while they assess the impact of current policy over inflation. She said she finds “difficult” to cut in December. Boston Fed Susan Collins coincided with Logan’s adding that “restrictive policy is very appropriate right now.”

On the other hand, the New York Fed John Williams said they can still cut rates in the “near-term”, which boosted odds for a December move. Echoing some of his words was Governor Stephen Miran, who said that Thursday’s data favors a December rate cut, and that if his vote was the marginal one, he “would vote for a 25 bps cut.”

In the UK, Retail Sales were weaker than expected in October, and flash PMIs for November were mixed, with the Manufacturing PMI improving, while the Services PMI approached the 50 neutral threshold.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD remains biased, technically speaking. After hitting a weekly high of 1.3193, the pair continued its downtrend and if buyers would like to regain control, the pair must clear key resistance levels like the 1.3100 mark, the 20-day SMA at 1.3146 and 1.3200.

Conversely, the GBP/USD first support would be 1.3050. Once breached, the next support would be the 1.3000 mark, followed by the April 8 swing low of 1.2764.

US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in November's flash estimate from 54.6 in October, showing that the business activity in the US' private sector continued to expand at an accelerating pace.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 from 52.5 in this period, while the Services PMI improved to 55.0 from 54.8.

Assessing the survey's findings, "the flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant US economy in November, signalling annualised GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and added:

"Although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs. Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

Market reaction to US S&P PMI data

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen trading unchanged on the day at 100.22.

This section below was published as a preview of the US S&P Global PMI data at 08:00 GMT.

• The S&P Global flash PMIs for November are expected to show expansion continued in the month.
• The employment and inflation sub-indices will attract attention in the aftermath of the government shutdown.
• EUR/USD bounced from its recent lows, USD could recover its bullish poise with upbeat data.

S&P Global will release on Friday the November flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, including the United States (US). These surveys of top private sector executives provide an early indication of the business sector’s economic health.

Market participants anticipate that the Global Services PMI will print at 54.8, matching the October reading, while Global Manufacturing output is expected to print at 52, slightly below the 52.5 reading of the previous month. Finally, it is worth noting that the Composite PMI printed at 54.6 in October.

The US is coming from the longest government shutdown in its history, which means little macroeconomic data has been released in the last couple of months. Indeed, the country kick-started reporting on Thursday, but offered the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy added 119,000 new positions in the month, better than the 50,000 expected. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.4%, worse than the previous 4.3%, although the Participation Rate increased from 62.3% to 62.4%, partially offsetting the uptick in the unemployment rate. As a result, markets turned optimistic, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild near-term selling pressure.

Still, the market’s hunger for economic-related data ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy meeting could see the S&P Global PMIs having a wider-than-usual impact on the US Dollar (USD).

S&P Global separately reports manufacturing activity and services activity through the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI. Additionally, they present a weighted combination of the two, the Composite PMI. Generally speaking, a reading of 50 or more indicates expansion, while below the threshold, the indexes indicate contraction.

The report has two versions, a preliminary estimate and a final revision, which comes around two weeks later. These preliminary versions or flash estimates tend to have a broader impact on the US Dollar.

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

The anticipated figures, while below the previous ones on the manufacturing sector, still indicate healthy economic progress in the world’s largest economy.

With that in mind, figures in line with expectations will be viewed as positive news, particularly in relation to the Manufacturing PMI. Upbeat numbers could boost the market’s optimism and temporarily weigh on the USD demand, but had no material impact on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, unless the figures are extremely disappointing, an unlikely scenario.

Beyond the headline readings, the reports include sub-indices on employment and inflation, closely watched by market players. In this particular case, the figures could have a more relevant impact than the headline figure, as inflation and employment levels are at the centre of the Fed’s decision. Much worse-than-anticipated data should result in renewed speculation of a Fed cut in December, resulting in a weaker USD across the FX board.

When will the November flash US S&P Global PMIs will be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs reports will be released at 14:45 GMT on Friday, and as previously noted, are expected to show that US business activity continued to expand in November.

Ahead of the release, the USD is shedding ground against most major rivals amid a risk-on environment following the September NFP report.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair bounced modestly from near the 1.1500 level posted early on Thursday, as risk appetite undermines demand for the Greenback in the near-term. On a weekly basis, however, the pair remains on the bearish side.”

Bednarik adds: “Technical readings in the daily chart suggest EUR/USD could extend its slide. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently providing dynamic resistance at around 1.1570, while extending its slide below a flat 100 SMA, usually a sign of mounting selling pressure. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, in line with the recent absence of directional strength. Support lies at 1.1470 ahead of the 1.1400 region, where the pair met buyers in July. Gains beyond the aforementioned 1.1570 expose the 1.1630 price zone, with additional gains unlikely in the current scenario.”

• Silver trims losses after hitting a fresh weekly low at $48.64, still set for a weekly decline.
• Double-top pattern on the daily chart keeps bearish pressure in play.
• Immediate support rests at the $49.50-$49.00 zone aligned with the 21-day SMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) trims a part of its earlier losses on Friday after marking a fresh weekly low at $48.64. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $49.69, recovering modestly but still down nearly 1.50% on the day, and remains on track for a weekly decline.

From a technical perspective, Silver is flashing early signs of fatigue after forming a double-top pattern on the daily chart, with peaks around the $54.50-$55.00 region. The pattern is beginning to exert mild bearish pressure, although the neckline remains intact, keeping sellers cautious for now.

Despite the pullback, the broader uptrend structure remains intact, with prices still comfortably above the key moving averages. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has flattened around $49.42, reinforcing the immediate $49.50-$49.00 support band. This is the first line in the sand for bulls.

A decisive break below this confluence zone would expose downside toward $46.50, which corresponds to the double-top neckline. A close below $46.50 would constitute a technical breakdown and shift the near-term bias firmly in favour of sellers.

On the upside, the $50.00 psychological level is the first hurdle. Bulls would need a sustained break above this level to attempt a move toward this week’s top near $52.47. A push through the double-top highs would invalidate the bearish formation and reinstall bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 50, signaling balanced forces after earlier overbought readings faded. The Average Directional Index (ADX) eases to 21.09, indicating weak trend strength and a risk of range-bound trade unless momentum rebuilds.