Forex News
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is trading with a soft underlying tone, with scope for the Dollar to test support levels near 6.7420 in the short term, while a sustained break lower is seen as unlikely. Over the 1–3 week horizon, they still expect gradual downside toward 6.7300, provided resistance at 6.7640 holds. On a 1–3 month view, they see tentative upward momentum that would require a break above the 21‑week EMA at 6.8430 to confirm a sustained recovery.
Short-term tests, gradual downside bias
"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that USD “could test last week’s low, near 6.7420,” we held the view that “a continued decline below this level is unlikely.” Our view did materialise as USD traded within a tight range of 6.7450/6.7500, closing largely unchanged at 6.7482 (+0.01%). Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone appears to be soft, and there is a chance for USD to test 6.7420. However, a continued decline below this level still appears unlikely. On the upside, resistance is at 6.7550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that while USD edged lower last week, “there has been no clear increase in downward momentum.” However, we were of the view that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300 as long as 6.7640 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Our view remains unchanged."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song highlight a sharp 8% drop in USD/KRW earlier in the second quarter, driven by temporary flows such as Hynix ADR repatriation and National Pension Service hedging adjustments, alongside a hawkish Bank of Korea (BoK) hike. Strong chip exports and AI-related investment are seen keeping inflation above target. They expect further BoK tightening and see supportive factors for the Korean Won (KRW).
Chip exports and hawkish BoK aid KRW
"The won had a very strong start to the second quarter, with USD/KRW dropping 8%."
"There were probably some temporary factors at play, like Hynix repatriating some of its $16bn ADR receipts or the National Pension Service adjusting hedging ratios, but the Bank of Korea’s hawkish hike in July was important too."
"Here surging chip exports and the investment going into that industry is stoking domestic demand and likely to keep inflation above target for a ‘considerable time’. The market now prices another 50bp of hikes by year-end."
"USD/KRW continues to trade on a very high 12% p.a. volatility, but a stable Fed, hawkish BoK and ongoing AI demand can help KRW."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD stayed broadly flat on Wednesday, trading between 1.2804 and 1.2825 and closing at 1.2810. Their Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) model suggests the basket will remain 1.5–2.0% above its mid-point, implying a 1.2756–1.2820 range. Near term, downside risk persists but further declines require a clear break below 1.2790.
Dollar soft but still rangebound
"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD traded within a range of 1.2815/1.2840, closing largely unchanged at 1.2819 (-0.06%). Yesterday, we pointed out that “momentum indicators are mostly flat,” and we expected USD to “trade in a range between 1.2805 and 1.2840.” USD subsequently traded within a tight range of 1.2804/1.2825 before closing largely unchanged again at 1.2815 (-0.03%). Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone has softened somewhat. Today, USD could edge lower, but given the lackluster downward momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach 1.2790. Resistance is at 1.2820, followed by 1.2830."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815), when we highlighted that while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” Although USD subsequently tested 1.2790, it has not been able to make further headway on the downside. That said, we will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2850 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.2860) is not breached. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.2790 is 1.2765."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song warn that upside inflation risks are re-emerging for the Philippine Peso (PHP), driven by recovering Oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño that could spark a food-price shock. Rising global rice and fertiliser prices add to pressures. They expect another 50bp of tightening in 2026, but highlight political uncertainty as a key downside risk that could delay reforms and dampen growth.
El Niño and policy risks pressure PHP
"Upside inflation risks are increasing again, driven by the recovery in oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño later this year which could trigger a food inflation shock across import-dependent economies like the Philippines."
"Global rice prices are increasing as countries move to secure supplies, while fertiliser prices are likely to rebound from recent lows amid renewed US-Iran tensions and supply disruption."
"Persistent inflation pressures are likely to reinforce a hawkish policy stance, supporting our forecast for an additional 50bp of tightening in 2026."
"Political uncertainty remains a key downside risk, potentially delaying reforms, dampening growth, and sustaining downward pressure on the peso."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The St. Louis Fed President, Alberto Musalem, stressed that “inflation is too high” and that it’s “critical” that monetary policy focuses on bringing down inflation.
Musalem revealed that he supported increasing rates at the recent monetary policy meeting and that he sees a higher probability that inflation would remain above target. He added that “incremental rate hikes are less costly than sudden changes,” and expects core inflation to be “probably” between 2.5% and 3%.
He added that the labor market is not an inflation driver and that he was very receptive at new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh task forces.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- USD/MXN extends ten-day slide after Banxico holds rates unchanged.
- Banxico sees inflation converging gradually, keeping policy restrictive longer.
- Fed hike bets persist as traders await Friday’s NFP report.
The Mexican peso extends its rally to 10 straight days, gaining over 0.12% on Thursday after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN exotic pair trades at 17.21, after reaching a daily high of 17.26.
USD/MXN drops after Banxico holds rates at 6.50%
Banxico held rates at 6.50% for the second straight meeting, unanimously, after finishing its easing cycle on May 7. In the monetary policy statement, the central bank acknowledged that “Both headline and core inflation are still expected to decline throughout the forecast horizon, albeit more gradually than previously anticipated.”
The Mexican institution hinted that rates would remain at the current level for the foreseeable future, as the board expects both headline and core inflation to reach its 3% goat in Q4 2027, according to the bank’s projections. For 2026, they expect headline and core CPI to end at 3.5%.
Banxico mentioned that economic slack is anticipated to persist throughout the forecast period, and substantial downward risks to economic activity remain.
Aside from this, US jobs data was positive, as initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 were 199K, above the previous week but below estimates of 202K. Meanwhile, the US Challenger Job Cuts revealed that planned layoffs dropped 27% to 33,429 in July, its lowest level in two years.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem was hawkish, reiterating that “inflation is well above the 2% target” and acknowledging that the balance of risks is that inflation will remain above target. Musalem added that “It is crucial that monetary policy put a meaningful restraint on underlying inflation, rather than tolerating somewhat higher inflation today to pursue productivity growth tomorrow.”
In the meantime, money markets continued to price in a 58% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting, according to Prime Terminal data.
Ahed this week, the US schedule will feature July’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which are projected to improve from 57,000 to 80,000 and the Unemployment Rate to remain steady.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/MXN trades at 17.2109, extending its decline below the clustered simple moving averages, with the latest triple SMA reading at 17.4104 acting as nearby overhead resistance. Price also remains under the more recent downward resistance trend line break at 17.4630, keeping the pair in a bearish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 36.18 drifts toward oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure is still dominant but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns at the triple simple moving average cluster around 17.4104, followed by the downward resistance trend line break near 17.4630, where any recovery would likely stall unless buyers can secure a daily close above this zone. On the downside, the next notable structural floor emerges much lower at the prior major trend-line break around 15.7056, with the current setup suggesting rallies toward the 17.41–17.46 band may be viewed as opportunities for sellers while the price holds beneath these caps.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu notes Indonesia’s 2Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.3% year-on-year, beating the bank’s 5.1% forecast, but warns the composition is less reassuring. Public spending was the main support, while non-government GDP, private consumption and manufacturing stayed weak. Investment improved but boosted imports, and a large statistical discrepancy clouds assessment of Indonesia’s growth quality.
Public-led growth masks private softness
"Indonesia’s 2Q26 real GDP growth came in stronger than expected (5.3% yoy versus SGe 5.1%), but the composition of the data suggests that the headline number should be interpreted with caution."
"As a result, non-government GDP growth continued to languish, reinforcing the view that underlying economic momentum remains softer than the headline print suggests."
"This matters because growth led by public spending is qualitatively different from growth driven by private demand."
"This weakens the case for interpreting the GDP data as evidence of a strong consumer-led recovery."
"The key takeaway is that Indonesia’s economy continues to grow, but the quality, breadth, and reliability of that growth remain open to question."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- NZD/USD is lower near 0.5870 as the US Dollar gains against every major currency.
- Oil's jump offers the Kiwi no support, with Gold and Silver also falling on the same headlines.
- Chinese trade figures overnight and US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday are the next drivers.
NZD/USD trades lower near the 0.5900 level at the time of writing, with no New Zealand catalyst behind the move. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.26% near the 100.00 level, and the Kiwi is simply on the wrong side of it.
Oil is up 3% at $77.30 per barrel after reports that vessels linked to the United States (US), Israel, and other countries Tehran considers hostile would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed agreement. But Gold is down 0.09%, and Silver is off 0.84% on the same news.
China is the more direct problem, and it reports overnight. Exports are expected to have grown 22.2% in the year to July, down from 27%, with imports slowing to 27.9% from 36% and the trade surplus narrowing to $107 billion from $125.62 billion. Those are still strong figures, but a slowdown in New Zealand's largest export market matters more to the Kiwi than anything on the domestic calendar this week.
US Nonfarm Payrolls follow on Friday, with the consensus at 80K after June's 57K and average hourly earnings seen up 0.3% on the month. A firm wage print would extend the Greenback's recovery and leave the kiwi squeezed from both directions.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5869, with the near-term tone capped as the pair sits under the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5876 while holding above the 100-period SMA at 0.5835. The horizontal band of levels just overhead between 0.5872 and 0.5882 reinforces this immediate supply zone, keeping upside attempts in check, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral-to-firm momentum that is yet to translate into a clear bullish breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is clustered at 0.5872 and 0.5876, followed by 0.5882, with more substantial barriers seen at 0.5907 and 0.5930 before 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.5860, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.5835, which acts as a deeper structural floor for any corrective slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Here is what you need to know for Friday, August 7:
The US Dollar (USD) posted gains against every major currency on Thursday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) up 0.26% near the 100.00 level as Oil rallied 3% on the reported Strait of Hormuz vessel ban, while Gold and Silver declined.
The Greenback was supported by positive labor market data, with Initial Jobless Claims missing forecasts at 199K and Challenger Job Cuts at 33.429K in July, its lowest print in the last two years. With Nonfarm Payrolls a day away, the path of least resistance was to trim risk, and that meant buying US Dollars.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.14% | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.39% | 0.32% | 0.67% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.15% | 0.18% | -0.25% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.37% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.15% | 0.32% | -0.08% | 0.23% | 0.18% | 0.53% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.42% | -0.09% | -0.12% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.42% | 0.33% | 0.30% | 0.64% | |
| AUD | -0.39% | -0.09% | -0.23% | 0.09% | -0.33% | -0.04% | 0.29% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | -0.04% | -0.18% | 0.12% | -0.30% | 0.04% | 0.36% | |
| CHF | -0.67% | -0.37% | -0.53% | -0.22% | -0.64% | -0.29% | -0.36% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The commodity picture points the same way. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is up 3% at $77 per barrel after reports that vessels linked to the United States (US), Israel, and other countries Tehran considers hostile would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed agreement. Gold is down 0.09% at $4,243 after briefly recovering the $4,300 level, and Silver is off 0.84% at $62.
EUR/USD falls around 0.27% to trade near the 1.1500 landmark, handing back most of the recovery that carried the pair toward the top of its recent range earlier in the week.
GBP/USD eases around 0.11% to near 1.3450, with Cable still stuck in the range it has held all week without domestic catalysts.
USD/JPY rises around 0.39% to near the 158.40 region, one of the biggest movers of the session, extending its recovery from the lows reached after last week's intervention.
AUD/USD drops around 0.36% to near 0.7030, with the Aussie getting no lift from crude and facing Chinese trade figures overnight.
On Friday, China opens the session with July trade figures, while Europe brings German Industrial Production, forecast at 0.1% MoM in June after 0.9%, alongside the German Trade Balance, seen at €17.4 billion from €19.1 billion.
In the US, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the main event. The consensus is 80K after June's 57K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2% and Average Hourly Earnings up 0.3% MoM and 3.5% YoY. Wages are the number to watch. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday she was open to the idea that rates may need to rise to deal with inflation she called too high, so a firm earnings print would do more for the Dollar than a strong headline.
Canada will release jobs data, with the Net Change in Employment expected at 15K after 18.2K and the Unemployment Rate holding at 6.5%.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, led by economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya, analyzes Thailand’s July CPI undershoot driven by lower fuel prices while core inflation edges higher. They emphasize that inflation remains supply-led, with upstream PPI still elevated, and maintain forecasts for headline CPI at 2.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 alongside a steady BOT policy rate at 1.00% through end-2027.
Supply-led CPI and policy outlook
"Jul headline CPI eased to +1.95% y/y and -0.73% m/m, from +2.42% y/y and - 0.34% m/m in Jun, undershooting the +2.55% Reuters consensus and the BOT’s earlier monthly reference path. Core CPI nevertheless firmed to +1.34% y/y and +0.08% m/m, signaling continued, albeit contained, indirect cost pass-through."
"The BOT’s Jun baseline projects headline inflation at 2.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, and core inflation at 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, as supply pressures and unfavorable base effects fade next year."
"We maintain our headline CPI forecasts at 2.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and expect the BoT to hold its policy rate at 1.00% through end-2027. The principal swing factors remain oil, THB, and the current account—not a domestic demand-led tightening cycle."
"A prolonged hold therefore offers the best balance between maintaining price stability and avoiding an unnecessary tightening of already-fragile financial conditions."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
