Forex News
- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 60K in March.
- The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%.
- Markets could have a delayed reaction to employment data due to the Good Friday holiday.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Investors will scrutinize the underlying details of the employment report to assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to consider an interest-rate hike later in the year. Still, the immediate market reaction could remain subdued, with trading volumes staying thin on the Good Friday holiday.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 60K following the disappointing 92K decrease recorded in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to hold steady at 3.8%.
Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect a moderate 30K increase in NFP in March.
“The reversal of weather and strike effects should result in a payrolls composition similar to the end of 2025, with outsized healthcare support. We also look for the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.4%, with a risk of moving higher. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased a subdued 0.2% m/m, translating to 3.6% y/y,” they add.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported earlier in the week that employment in the private sector rose by 62K in March. This print followed the 66K (revised from 63K) increase reported in February. Assessing the report’s findings, “overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. Meanwhile, the Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey came in at 48.7 in March, pointing to an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector payrolls.
Danske Bank Research Team also projects the NFP to come in at 30K and see the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.5%. “Recent indicators, including declines in daily job postings and weekly private sector employment growth, point to a softer labour market,” they note.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 03, 2026 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.4%
Previous: 4.4%
Source:
How will the US March Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The USD outperformed its rivals in March as it benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere and growing expectations for a hawkish tilt in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook, with surging crude Oil prices reviving fears over inflation getting out of control. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained more than 2% in March and experienced heightened volatility in the first days of April.
While speaking at an event organized by Harvard University earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that there is tension between the Fed’s two mandates, keeping maximum employment and stable prices, and said that they are in a good place to wait and see how the current situation plays out. Commenting on labor market conditions, Powell said that job creation is very low and that it's challenging to enter the job market.
Meanwhile, NY Fed President John Williams acknowledged that the job market is sending signals, adding that the low hiring rate might be feeding into economic pessimism.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 80% probability that the Fed policy rate will remain unchanged at the range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2026. In early March, markets were projecting a 92% chance that the Fed would cut the policy rate at least once this year.
A positive surprise in the NFP, with a reading of at least 70K, could cause markets to reassess the possibility of a Fed rate hike and boost the USD. Conversely, a print below 50K, especially if combined with an uptick in the Unemployment Rate, could make it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals and help EUR/USD hold its ground. Nonetheless, unless a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a steady decline in Oil prices, a steady uptrend in EUR/USD could be difficult to come by, even if the NFP misses analysts’ estimates.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact despite the latest recovery attempt. The pair remains below a descending trend line drawn from late-January and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreats toward 40 after failing to clear the 50 midline earlier in the week.”
“On the downside, 1.1430-1.1400 (lower limit of the Bollinger Band, static level) aligns as a key support before 1.1300 (round level) and 1.1220 (static level). Looking north, immediate resistance could be spotted at 1.1600 (round level, descending trend line) ahead of the 1.1680-1.1700 region, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA align.”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
- AUD/USD gathers strength around 0.6900 in Friday’s early European session.
- Westpac analysts expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in May, June and August 2026.
- Traders brace for the US employment data for March later on Friday.
The AUD/USD pair gains ground near 0.6900 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) underpins the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Greenback. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. Traders will keep an eye on the US March jobs report later on Friday.
Market expectations for the May meeting lean toward another potential rate hike due to rising oil prices and a tight labor market. Westpac analysts expect the RBA to deliver three further rate hikes in 2026. This would take the cash rate to 4.85%, a level not seen since November 2008.
On the other hand, escalating conflict in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could prompt traders to move into a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD). US President Donald Trump pressures Iran "to make a deal" after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”
The US employment data for March will be published on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 60,000 jobs in March. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- EUR/USD may fall toward the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 45 signals subdued momentum.
- The pair tests the immediate barrier at the upper descending channel boundary near the nine-day EMA at 1.1544.
EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.1540 during Asian hours on Friday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential bullish reversal as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.
However, the near-term bias stays mildly bearish as price holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap recovery attempts and confirm a prevailing downside tone. The short-term average trades under the longer one and flattens, signalling a lack of bullish follow-through after recent rebounds.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator around 45 keeps momentum on the soft side, showing sellers retain a slight advantage without reaching oversold extremes.
The EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13. Further declines would put downward pressure on the pair to test the descending channel around 1.1250.
On the upside, the EUR/USD pair is testing the immediate resistance at the upper descending channel boundary around the nine-day EMA at 1.1544. A break above the channel would strengthen the market bias and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.1637. Further advances would open the doors for the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, which was recorded on January 27.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.03% | -0.07% | 0.15% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.10% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.17% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.03% | 0.12% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.17% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.00% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US Dollar Index holds gains around 100.00 in Friday’s early European session.
- Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran.
- The US March jobs data will be in the spotlight later on Friday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 100.00 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The DXY holds positive ground amid fresh concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. All eyes will be on the US March jobs report, which will be released later on Friday.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the war's core objectives are "nearing completion" and could wrap up in two to three weeks. He warned he would bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age" if they did not agree to an unconditional surrender.
Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the attack wouldn’t force Tehran to surrender. “It only conveys the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray,” he said. A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran could prompt traders to seek a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar in the near term.
Nonetheless, US tariff threats might cap the upside for the DXY. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Trump signed an executive order that could slap up to 100% on certain imported medicines from companies that don't reach deals with his administration in the coming months.
Traders await the release of the US March jobs data later on Friday for fresh impetus. The US economy is projected to see 60,000 job additions in March, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. In case of softer-than-expected outcomes, this could weigh on the USD against its rivals.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,120.49 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 14,120.49 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 164,698.70 per tola from INR 164,698.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 14,120.49 |
10 Grams | 141,204.90 |
Tola | 164,698.70 |
Troy Ounce | 439,196.70 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- Silver struggles as a stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand, makes the white metal more expensive for foreign buyers.
- The white metal stays pressured as hawkish 2026 central bank expectations rise amid higher energy prices and inflation fears.
- Trump gave no clarity on reopening Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks.
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains in the negative territory after experiencing volatility, trading around $73.10 during the Asian hours on Friday. The dollar-denominated Silver comes under pressure as a stronger US Dollar (USD), driven by safe-haven demand, makes the white metal costlier for foreign buyers. Trading activity may remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.
Non-interest-bearing Silver remains under pressure as hawkish central bank expectations for 2026 intensify. Rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions reinforce inflation concerns, supporting tighter policy outlooks and reducing the appeal of precious metals that offer no yield.
US President Donald Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern on Thursday over rising oil prices, noting they could complicate efforts to curb inflation, particularly if gasoline costs surge and lift inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas, supported the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at the latest FOMC meeting, noting the labor market has stabilized since late 2025, though payroll growth remains weak and “uncomfortable.”
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- GBP/USD gains as markets price in the possibility of two BoE hikes in 2026 amid rising inflation fears.
- The US Dollar may strengthen on safe-haven demand amid escalating Iran tensions following Trump’s recent threats.
- Trump gave no clarity on reopening Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks.
GBP/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3230 during the Asian hours on Friday. Trading activity may remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) receives some support as markets are pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 amid rising energy prices and inflation concerns. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently warned that expectations may be overstated.
However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground amid rising safe-haven demand following the recent Iran threats from US President Donald Trump.
US President Donald Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern over rising oil prices, noting they could complicate efforts to curb inflation, particularly if gasoline costs surge and lift inflation expectations.
(The story was corrected on April 3 at 04:05 GMT to say in the title that traders price in two BoE rate hike odds and not rate cuts.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- NZD/USD drifts lower to near 0.5710 in Friday’s Asian session.
- China’s RatingDog Services PMI eased to 52.1 in March, weaker than expected.
- The US March jobs data will be the highlight on Friday.
The NZD/USD pair extends the decline to a near four-month low around 0.5710 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) on the downbeat Chinese economic data and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday.
Data released by RatingDog on Friday showed that China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February. This figure came in below the market consensus of 53.7. The China-proxy Kiwi edges lower following the weaker Chinese data.
Additionally, escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran "to make a deal" after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down.
Traders will closely monitor the US March jobs data later on Friday. The US economy is expected to see 60,000 job additions in March, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. Any signs of a weakening in the US labor market could drag the USD lower in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- WTI rises over 10% amid rising supply risks following recent Trump threats on Iran.
- Trump highlighted a Tehran bridge strike, warning of further action and urging Iran to “make a deal.”
- Reports suggest that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to monitor the Strait of Hormuz transit.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rises over 10% after two days of losses, trading around $103.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices surged as markets reassessed the scale of supply risks stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf.
US President Donald Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. Trump also pointed to the destruction of a bridge in Tehran, signaling further escalation while urging Iran to reach a deal before it is too late.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.
However, oil prices briefly eased following reports that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol to monitor transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but optimism faded quickly. Iranian official Kazem Gharibabadi stated that tanker movements through the vital route should be supervised and coordinated by both countries, according to IRNA.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom (UK) is hosting discussions with multiple countries to secure the passage, while OPEC+ is weighing a potential output increase, though any additional supply is unlikely to affect markets in the near term.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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