Forex News
- Silver price recovers a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near $84.00.
- Higher US bond yields and the US Dollar are expected to remain a major drag on the Silver price.
- The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the next three policy meetings.
Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back a majority of its early losses and recovers to near its opening price around $84.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal is expected to remain under pressure as higher United States (US) Treasury yields due to strengthening market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the near term have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
10-year US Treasury yields are up almost 2% around 4.22% during the press time. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the next three policy meetings in March, April, and June. For the July policy meeting, the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady have increased to 46.7% from 39.3% seen on Friday.
Traders have pared significant dovish Fed bets amid surging oil prices, which have already prompted global consumer inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the US gasoline prices reached an average of $3.41 per gallon on Saturday, according to The New York Times (NYT).
In addition to receding dovish Fed expectations, rising US Dollar (USD) due to roaring oil prices and firm safe-haven trade amid the Middle East war has also weighed on the US Dollar.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.5% higher to near 99.35.
Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades slightly lower at around $83.90 at the press time. The near-term bias is neutral as spot trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has flattened near $84.75. Price action has been oscillating around this average for several sessions, signaling a lack of directional conviction after April’s sharp reversal from above $110.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, signaling a lack of strong buying pressure and favoring a defensive tone.
Nearest resistance emerges in the recent swing area around $90.00, where prior rebounds stalled. A daily close above $90.00 would be needed to ease the current downside bias and reopen the way toward the mid-$90s. On the downside, initial support sits near the recent $82.00 low, with a break exposing the $78.00 region as the next key floor. A sustained move below $78.00 would confirm a deeper corrective phase toward the mid-$70s zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer said during European trading hours on Monday that the administration is in continuous talks with international partners about what more we can do to reduce the economic impact amid the ongoing war in the Middle East between the United States (US), Iran, and Israel.
Remarks
We've done a lot of work to put some resilience into our economy over the last 18 months.
Talking to international partners about what more we can do to reduce the economic impact.
The longer this conflict goes on, the more likely the potential for an impact for economy.
Finance Minister Reeves talking to BoE every day to get ahead of any ‘on energy' prices.
I don't see the energy price cap changing since it goes to June.
We do need to find a way to de-escalate the situation in Iran.
Deutsche Bank's Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja outlines how the Bank of England and UK Government might respond to different energy-shock paths. Scenario 1 keeps two cuts to 3.25% and no major fiscal move, Scenario 2 still allows two cuts but more spaced with fuel-duty relief, while Scenario 3 delays easing, raises terminal to 3.5% and triggers broader fiscal support measures.
Rate cuts and fiscal levers by scenario
"The call for policy adjustments will grow. HMT will feel pressure to support households and cut inflation. And the Bank of England will grow more nervous the longer the energy shock lasts."
"In Scenario 1, we would expect our baseline of two rate cuts to come, with the next rate cut likely to come in April/June, followed by a (late) summer rate cut (in either July/Sep). Fiscal policy, we expect, will remain on the sidelines, given the speed in which the shock dissipates."
"In Scenario 2, we still think two rate cuts may be likely. But rate cuts are likely to be spaced further apart, with one likely in summer and another just around the turn of the year. Fiscal policy will most likely be deployed to shield households - particularly in the form of easing fuel duty increases (which is scheduled to rise from August)."
"In Scenario 3, where the energy crisis persists, we expect a two-pronged approach by Government. One, not only would the chances of a fuel duty free extension rise inexorably, but we think the Chancellor may begin to entertain the idea of temporary cut to fuel duty."
"How will the BoE react? We'd expect the next rate cut to come later in the year (Q4-26). And we would expect terminal rate expectations to rise - from 3.25% currently to 3.5%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index arrives at -3.1 in March from 4.2 in February.
The report shows that the sudden weakness in investors' morale is linked to the escalation of the Iran war, which is weighing on global energy markets. Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the Persian Gulf are weighing on sentiment. The sharp rise in oil prices and the associated economic uncertainty are having negative consequences from the investors' perspective.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact of the sentiment data on the Euro (EUR). As of writing, EUR/USD trades 0.5% lower to near 1.1550 amid weak market sentiment.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.32% | -0.22% | 0.08% | -0.17% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.39% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.61% | -0.30% | -0.53% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.58% | -0.27% | -0.53% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.32% | 0.07% | 0.04% | -0.52% | -0.21% | -0.47% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.22% | 0.61% | 0.58% | 0.52% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.51% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | 0.30% | 0.27% | 0.21% | -0.31% | -0.26% | 0.19% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.47% | -0.05% | 0.26% | 0.45% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.02% | -0.51% | -0.19% | -0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Jane Foley report that EUR net long positions have declined for a third consecutive week, driven by increased shorts. They stress that the Euro lacks safe-haven status and remains vulnerable as an energy importer in the current crisis, despite limited direct exposure to the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now pricing in two ECB rate hikes over a one-year horizon on perceived inflation risks.
Net longs fall as shorts increase
"EUR net long positions have fallen for the third week in a row, driven by a jump in short positions."
"Since the EUR’s brief history is associated with crisis, it has no safe haven links."
"In addition, the Eurozone’s stance as an energy importer leaves the EUR more vulnerable in the current crisis even though very little of its energy is sourced through the Strait of Hormuz."
"The market is pricing in two ECB rate hikes on a 1-year view on the back of perceived inflation risks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $83.83 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.08% from the $83.89 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have increased by 17.93% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 83.83 |
1 Gram | 2.70 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 60.96 on Monday, down from 61.43 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
National Bank of Canada (BoC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet interpret recent Bank of Canada communication as favouring policy flexibility in response to supply shocks. With the economy in excess supply and inflation modestly above target, they see a path to BoC rate cuts if growth weakens materially, but judge the most likely outcome as inflation near 2% and policy on hold through 2026, with little chance of cuts in upcoming meetings.
BoC seen on extended policy hold
"Today, the economy is in excess supply with inflation modestly above target, a situation that requires “flexibility”. In theory, there’s a path to BoC cuts from here if inflation runs only a bit above target, but the economic shock is material. Of course, the ‘easier’ path to further cuts is inflation falling and consistently running below target."
"To us, the most likely outcome is for inflation hovering around 2% and slack persisting but gradually being reduced. This should lead to stand pat policy this year. If our economic or growth assessment is wrong, the response will differ."
"But making this assessment will likely take time, which is why we see little chance of a rate cut in the next few meetings."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the surge in Oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict is reinforcing US Dollar strength, especially versus high-yielding emerging market currencies. He highlights that weaker US labour data would normally weigh on the Dollar, but the energy shock and hawkish repricing in rates are instead supporting USD within its 96.000–100.00 index range.
Oil-driven risk backdrop underpins Dollar
"The US dollar has continued to strengthen against other major currencies with the dollar index moving towards the top of the 96.000 to 100.00 trading range that has been in place since Q2 of last year."
"US dollar strength has been more evident against the high yielding emerging market currencies of the South African rand and Hungarian forint."
"Normally, the softer NFP report would have reinforced Fed rate cut expectations and weakened the US dollar in the absence the Middle East conflict."
"So far the US rate market has moved to push back both the timing and scale of further Fed rate cuts lifting US rates and the US dollar."
"Financial market conditions are becoming more challenging for carry trades triggering an unwind of popular positions with the FX market likely to become much more volatile the longer the conflict drags on."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Dow Jones falls on concerns that rising energy costs could slow growth and reignite inflation.
- Middle Eastern producers cut output as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid the Iran war.
- Rising energy prices lift inflation expectations, fading Fed rate cut bets.
Dow Jones futures fall 1.74% to trade below 46,700 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline 1.61% and 1.75% to trade below 6,650 and 24,250 at the time of writing.
US stock futures dropped sharply as Oil prices rose above $113.00 per barrel amid the escalating Middle East conflict, raising concerns that higher energy costs could slow growth and reignite inflation. However, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price pares its daily gains and is trading around $100.00 at the time of writing.
Middle Eastern producers cut output as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Iran war. Kuwait, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), announced precautionary production cuts, while Iraq’s southern oil output dropped to 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million. Saad Sherida Al‑Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, told the Financial Times on Friday he expects Gulf producers to halt exports within weeks, potentially pushing oil to $150 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the rise in oil prices is a “very small price to pay” for defeating Iran and ensuring global peace. Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s only option is unconditional surrender and that after that happens, he will help select its next leader, as reported by the Telegraph.
Wall Street posted losses last week after weaker-than-expected payrolls data heightened inflation concerns. The Dow Jones ended the week down 3%, while the S&P 500 fell 2% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.2%.
Rising energy prices are also reshaping inflation expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay interest rate cuts. Investors now look to this week’s US CPI and PCE inflation data for direction, along with earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Forex Market News
Our dedicated focus on forex news and insights empowers you to capitalise on investment opportunities in the dynamic FX market. The forex landscape is ever-evolving, characterised by continuous exchange rate fluctuations shaped by vast influential factors. From economic data releases to geopolitical developments, these events can sway market sentiment and drive substantial movements in currency valuations.
At Rakuten Securities Hong Kong, we prioritise delivering timely and accurate forex news updates sourced from reputable platforms like FXStreet. This ensures you stay informed about crucial market developments, enabling informed decision-making and proactive strategy adjustments. Whether you’re monitoring forex forecasts, analysing trading perspectives, or seeking to capitalise on emerging trends, our comprehensive approach equips you with the insights needed to navigate the FX market effectively.
Stay ahead with our comprehensive forex news coverage, designed to keep you informed and prepared to seize profitable opportunities in the dynamic world of forex trading.
