Forex News
- GBP/USD trends close to a two-month low as the Pound struggles.
- The BoE voted 7-2 to hold rates, but two policymakers backed a hike to 4.00%.
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with the removal of “additional rate adjustments” reinforcing a more cautious, data-dependent stance.
The GBP/USD pair trades near a two-month close to the 1.3210 level on Thursday as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to gain traction after the Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy message.
The BoE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate steady, with most policymakers favoring patience amid uncertainty over the inflation outlook and recent volatility in energy prices. However, the split vote showed that inflation concerns remain, as two members supported raising the rate to 4.00%.
BoE officials warned that the war in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, while inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to increase further this year. The central bank’s cautious tone limited the Pound’s upside as markets assessed whether policymakers could still move toward tighter policy if second-round inflation pressure builds.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar stayed firm after the Fed held interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.
The Fed removed its previous reference to “additional rate adjustments,” reinforcing a more data-dependent stance and reducing expectations of near-term easing.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3205, extending a bearish bias as the pair holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3363 and the 100-period SMA at 1.3404. The clustering of nearby horizontal levels above price, alongside an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 25, suggests the downtrend is stretched but still capped by a dense band of overhead supply.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at 1.3227, followed by 1.3262 and 1.3298, before the stronger barrier at 1.3324. Beyond that, the 20-period SMA at 1.3363 and the 100-period SMA near 1.3404 reinforce a broader resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure, while the absence of nearby chart-derived supports below spot leaves the pair vulnerable to further declines if sellers remain in control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
- USD/JPY clears intervention zone after breaking April swing high.
- Hawkish Fed dots and yields overpower BoJ rate hike.
- Japanese officials warn they remain ready for decisive action.
The Japanese Yen weakens to a nearly 2-year low against the US Dollar as the USD/JPY reaches 161.46, the highest level seen since July 2024's yearly high of 161.99, spurred by a hawkish Fed and the jump of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the pair posted solid gains of 0.48%.
USD/JPY weakens as Fed repricing revives intervention fears
The USD/JPY already surpassed the intervention zone after clearing the April 30 swing high of 160.76, in a day when Japanese authorities drove the pair down by 385 pips to end the day at 156.59. Since then, the pair had enjoyed a bounce of over 487 pips to refresh multi-year highs. Worth noting that if the pair clears 162.00, it would refresh nearly 40-year highs, with the next resistance seen at the December 1986 monthly high of 163.36.
Market sentiment has improved following the hawkish tilt by the Fed, which held rates unchanged at around 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday and hinted that nearly half of the FOMC board expects at least one rate hike in 2026. The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, refrained from expressing his views on monetary policy.
In his press conference, Warsh said that forward guidance is not “well suited” to current economic conditions, though he noted that the jobs market is moving in the right direction and that price stability is the Fed's priority. In the meantime, money markets are expecting at least 34 basis points of tightening towards the end of 2026, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Data from the US showed that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 13 dropped from 230K to 226K, a touch above estimates of 225K, yet still showed an improvement in the labour market.
Alongside the Fed’s policy shift, investors are cheering the US-Iran deal, which usually is a headwind for safe-haven currencies like the Yen. In the meantime, the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said, “We are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time.”
Last week, the Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities were “always prepared to take decisive measures.” The top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, has remained mute since early May, around the April 30 intervention.
This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 1%, yet the Yen failed to gain traction, weighed down by rising US Treasury yields and investors' improving risk appetite.
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 161.64, extending its advance above the clustered support formed by the triple simple moving average around 159.09 and the reclaimed trend-line floors near 157.17 and 154.05, which together suggest a firmly bullish near-term bias. The pair is also holding over the horizontal support at 160.00, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 71 points to overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum remains strong but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.
On the downside, initial protection is seen at the 160.00 horizontal level, followed by the triple simple moving average around 159.09, where buyers could attempt to reassert control if a dip unfolds. A deeper retracement toward the former trend-line break zones near 157.17 and 154.05 would still keep the broader uptrend intact, but a sustained close below these supports would be needed to undermine the current bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker José Luis Escrivá said on Thursday that higher energy costs are spreading to services and transport, while warning that the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain for the European Union (EU) at a speech in Barcelona.
Key takeaways:
Energy costs are spreading to services and transport.
The baseline scenario is subject to considerable uncertainty.
It is unclear how long the recovery of oil production will take.
There is uncertainty about oil prices and inflation transmission.
There is uncertainty about second-round effects regarding wages.
Second-round effects on wages have yet to materialize.”
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.62% | 0.47% | 0.27% | -0.06% | 0.27% | 0.65% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.31% | 0.15% | -0.07% | -0.38% | -0.11% | 0.32% | |
| GBP | -0.62% | -0.31% | -0.19% | -0.37% | -0.68% | -0.39% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.47% | -0.15% | 0.19% | -0.18% | -0.53% | -0.25% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.27% | 0.07% | 0.37% | 0.18% | -0.35% | -0.06% | 0.36% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.68% | 0.53% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.70% | |
| NZD | -0.27% | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.25% | 0.06% | -0.29% | 0.42% | |
| CHF | -0.65% | -0.32% | -0.00% | -0.16% | -0.36% | -0.70% | -0.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- The index faded from its overnight high and drifted back toward the lower end of its daily range.
- A strong semiconductor rally did little for the Dow, which carries far less chip exposure than the technology-heavy benchmarks.
- A hawkish FOMC debut and falling Crude Oil left traders with mixed signals ahead of the Juneteenth holiday.
Wall Street's blue-chip index spent Thursday picking up the pieces of Wednesday's hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) selloff, and not even a roaring chip trade could coax it back into the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had two reasons to rally on paper, a screaming semiconductor tape and a sharp drop in Crude Oil, and it brushed off both.
The index spiked toward 51,900 in overnight trade, ran into heavy selling, and slid back to hover close to 51,600, leaving it stuck in the lower third of its daily range while the chip names sprinted. The striking part of the session is that two genuine tailwinds showed up and the average still could not hold a bid.
A chip rally the Dow was never built to catch
The day's marquee trade lived in semiconductors. Intel jumped around 10% after the White House flagged a chip-design partnership with Apple, Micron climbed roughly 6%, Nvidia added more than 1%, and a benchmark semiconductor fund rose better than 5%.
None of that does much for an old-economy, price-weighted average. The Dow holds Apple and Nvidia but not Intel, which was dropped from the average in late 2024, so the single biggest mover of the day never touched it; the blue chips were always going to watch this rally from the sidelines.
Cheaper Crude Oil, and a Fed that isn't impressed
The other supposed tailwind came from energy. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil fell around 3% toward $74 and Brent slid nearly as much near $77 after the Vice President said tankers carrying more than 12 million barrels had cleared the Strait of Hormuz, following Wednesday's memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some desks framed the move as Crude Oil doing the Fed's work, pulling inflation lower and easing the pressure on policymakers.
That tidy story leans on two assumptions the market cannot yet verify. It assumes the de-escalation holds well past the initial 60-day window, and it assumes the inflation problem is mostly an energy story when services and wages are doing the heavy lifting; the committee, for its part, just signaled it is in no mood to take the win.
Warsh keeps his cards close
Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Warsh's first as chair, is what the tape is still digesting. The updated dot plot showed nine of 18 officials now expecting higher rates in 2026, a hawkish lurch, while Warsh declined to submit a forecast of his own and leaned hard on the language of price stability.
A new chair who will not show his own dot, presiding over a committee split down the middle on whether the next move is a hike, is exactly the kind of communication vacuum equity markets punish. The blue chips capture none of the upside from the idiosyncratic chip trade while still carrying the weight of a hawkish Fed, which is much of why the average cannot rally with the tailwinds lined up in front of it.
Resistance: Near-term supply sits around 51,800, the level that capped every bounce through the session. Above it, the rejected overnight spike near 51,900 is the bigger barrier, with the 52,000 handle behind it.
Support: The 51,600 area is the immediate floor and has been defended repeatedly. A clean break opens the session low near 51,550, with the 51,500 handle beneath it.
Bias: Modestly lower while the index holds below the 51,800 area. A hawkish Fed, a chip rally the blue chips cannot share, and thin holiday liquidity all argue for more drift than recovery, and a daily close back above 51,800 is the minimum the bulls need to flip that read. The next real verdicts come next week, with flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints on Tuesday and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday, the very release those hawkish dots are built around.
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Silver remains below the 200-day SMA, keeping bearish structure intact.
- RSI stays bearish, confirming sellers retain near-term momentum control.
- Break below $65.77 exposes $63.32 and $61.50 support levels.
Silver (XAG/USD) price retreats on Thursday by nearly 2% as the Greenback refreshes year-to-date (YTD) highs, spurred by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, with nearly half of the board members supporting rate hikes in 2026. The XAG/USD pair trades at $66.07 after diving from daily highs of $69.85.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
After clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.99, the white metal extended its losses to $61.50 last week before recovering some ground, but sellers ultimately drove XAG to $65.77.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish, an indication that sellers are in charge and that further downside for Silver is expected.
If XAG/USD dives below $66.00, it opens the door to test the Thursday daily low of $65.77. On further weakness, the next support would be the June 10 daily low of $63.32, ahead of the June 11 cycle low of 61.50.
However, if buyers move in, they must clear the $68.00 level to challenge the 200-day SMA. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the psychological $70.00 milestone, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $75.00.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Fed dot plot shows nearly half of policymakers favoring a year-end rate increase.
- Chair Warsh rejects forward guidance, prioritizing price stability over signals.
- Next week brings PMIs, GDP, jobs and Core PCE.
Gold (XAU/USD) price recoils by 0.70% on Thursday as traders continue to digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, bolstering the Greenback and pushing it to a new year-to-date (YTD) high, a headwind for the yellow metal. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,223 after reaching a high of $4,330.
XAU/USD slips as hawkish repricing lifts Dollar to highs
Financial markets are in a risk-on mood, boosted by optimism about the end of the Middle East war and a jump in technology shares, despite the Fed’s change of stance. The US central bank held rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, and updated its economic projections, with the so-called dot plot showing that 9 of 19 policymakers expect a rate increase towards the end of the year.
The Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, did not participate in the dot plot, though acknowledged that he respected his colleagues submitting their ‘dots.’ Warsh said that forward guidance is not “well suited” in the current economic conditions, though noted that the jobs market is moving in the right direction and that price stability is the priority for the Fed.
Markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This is higher than the 61% chance seen before the Fed's policy statement.
The Fed's hawkish stance weighed on Gold prices and strengthened the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six other major currencies, rises on Thursday, hitting 100.81, its highest level since May, 2025.
US central bank policymakers' median forecast anticipates inflation will decline to 3.6% in 2026, hitting the Fed’s 2% goal by 2028. Economic growth is now forecasted to be marginally lower, with GDP expected to reach 2.2% by year's end, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to stay steady.
On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 230K to 226K, slightly above the estimated 225K, but still indicating a stronger labor market.
This week, the US economic docket will be absent due to the Juneteenth holiday. Next week, the US economic schedule will feature Flash PMIs, jobs data, the final reading of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 2026, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold stumbles below the $4,300 figure, on hawkish Fed
Gold prices turned bearish following the Fed’s decision, breaking below June 16 support of $4,306 and reaching a two-day low of $4,219 before rebounding somewhat. Although the recovery drove the yellow metal to $4,330, momentum faded and XAU remains below $4,300 at the time of writing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is moving in bearish territory, indicates that sellers are dominant. If XAU/USD falls below $4,200, it could test the June 11 swing low at $4,023, approaching the $4,000 level.
Going higher, Gold needs to rise above $4,300 for buyers to push prices higher. Breaking above this level and the significant psychological barriers at $4,350 and $4,400 would be necessary for further gains.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- The Euro continues to weaken against the US Dollar, hitting a fresh two-month low.
- Expectations of additional US rate hikes continue to support the Greenback.
- Weak economic prospects in Germany weigh on the single currency.
EUR/USD trades around 1.1470 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.22% on the day and hovering near its lowest level in two months. The pair extends its decline from the area above 1.1600 reached earlier this week, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish policy outlook.
The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. However, updated economic projections showed that roughly half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members still expect at least one additional rate hike before the end of the year. During his first press conference as head of the central bank, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to bringing inflation sustainably back to the 2% target, highlighting the resilience of the US labor market and persistent underlying inflation pressure.
US economic data released on Thursday also reinforced that view. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 226K in the week ending June 13 from an upwardly revised 230K previously, while Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.81M. The figures suggest that the labor market remains strong enough for the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy bias.
This monetary policy outlook continues to support the US Dollar, even as geopolitical concerns have eased somewhat following the announcement of a preliminary agreement between the United States (US) and Iran aimed at ending hostilities in the Middle East. According to Rabobank, a lasting improvement in geopolitical conditions could reduce demand for safe-haven assets, but the impact of the Fed’s hawkish shift is currently dominating currency market dynamics.
On the European side, economic prospects remain unfavorable for the single currency. Germany’s IFO Institute confirmed its outlook for weak growth and elevated inflation in Europe’s largest economy. The institute expects inflation to average 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027, while economic growth is forecast at just 0.8% this year and next year. These projections reinforce concerns about the region’s economic momentum.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that further rate hikes remain justified even under a milder economic scenario. He added that the ECB could look through temporary shocks if they are not expected to have a lasting impact on inflation. Despite these comments, investors remain more concerned about slowing growth in the Eurozone than the risk of additional monetary tightening.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.55% | 0.40% | 0.28% | -0.06% | 0.26% | 0.57% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | 0.25% | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.36% | -0.09% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.55% | -0.25% | -0.17% | -0.28% | -0.60% | -0.33% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.40% | -0.11% | 0.17% | -0.10% | -0.46% | -0.19% | 0.15% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | 0.03% | 0.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | -0.08% | 0.27% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.36% | 0.60% | 0.46% | 0.35% | 0.28% | 0.62% | |
| NZD | -0.26% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.19% | 0.08% | -0.28% | 0.35% | |
| CHF | -0.57% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.62% | -0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- AUD/USD trades near 0.7030 as the Australian Dollar struggles to extend gains.
- US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 226,000, showing layoffs remain limited.
- Risk sentiment improved after the US-Iran deal with hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The AUD/USD pair trades in a muted range near 0.7030 on Thursday, as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles to extend gains while the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the latest United States (US) labor market data.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 in the week ending June 13, close to market expectations of 225,000. The data suggested that layoffs remain limited but steady and that the labor market continues to show resilience despite signs of slower hiring momentum.
Additionally, Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.81 million, slightly above consensus.
The report helped the Greenback stay firm as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy stance following its latest decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.
After his first meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled that policymakers still need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target before shifting toward a looser policy stance.
Meanwhile, the Aussie remained supported by improved risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump and Iran’s leader signed a deal on Wednesday meant to end the Middle East war, with Tehran agreeing to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for large-scale economic relief. The agreement also marked a step toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the global economy, helping ease fears of a deeper energy shock.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7031, keeping a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.7054 and 0.7092, respectively. The price is effectively testing a horizontal pivot around 0.7031 after failing to sustain rebounds, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 suggests only modest downside momentum rather than a decisive oversold condition, leaving the pair vulnerable to further pressure while below the nearby resistance cluster.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at 0.7041, with the 20-period SMA at 0.7054 and the horizontal barrier at 0.7060 forming a tight cap ahead of the more significant 100-period SMA near 0.7092. On the downside, the immediate pivot at 0.7031 marks the first level to watch, and a clear break lower would expose the next horizontal support around 0.7018, where buyers may attempt to slow the decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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