Forex News

• The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% after raising borrowing costs in June.
• Suspected intervention by Japanese authorities has sent the Japanese Yen sharply higher ahead of the policy decision.
• Investors will look to Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues on whether another rate hike could reinforce the Japanese Yen's rebound.

Investors are turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday, after the Japanese Yen (JPY) staged a dramatic rebound during Thursday's American session. The move came amid growing speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market after USD/JPY tumbled from above 163.00 to below 158.00 within minutes.

While the BoJ is still widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1%, the sudden appreciation of the Japanese Yen has altered the market backdrop heading into the meeting. Investors will now focus on the updated economic projections and Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference to assess whether the central bank's policy outlook could reinforce the Japanese currency's recovery.

The decision follows the BoJ's June rate hike, which gave policymakers room to assess the effects of tighter financial conditions. Although another immediate move appears unlikely, markets continue to expect additional tightening before year-end, with October and December remaining the main candidates.

What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1% following the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The decision is likely to be supported by a broad majority of the Policy Board, as officials assess incoming data after the June rate hike.

The central bank will also publish its quarterly Outlook Report, including updated projections for economic growth and inflation. Policymakers could revise their growth forecasts higher, supported by resilient domestic activity and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment. At the same time, headline inflation estimates may be adjusted slightly lower due to government subsidies and softer energy prices.

A downward revision to the inflation forecast would not necessarily imply a more dovish policy stance. The BoJ is still expected to warn that underlying price pressures could remain stronger than projected, particularly as higher import and producer costs gradually pass through to consumers.

The Japanese central bank’s latest Tankan survey also showed that companies continue to expect inflation to remain above the BoJ’s 2% target over the coming years. These expectations, combined with rising wages and persistent services inflation, strengthen policymakers’ confidence that a durable wage-price cycle is taking hold.

The weakness of the Japanese Yen remains another important consideration. A softer currency raises the cost of imported goods and energy, potentially intensifying inflationary pressures. Even though the suspected intervention by Japanese authorities has temporarily eased pressure on the Japanese Yen after months of persistent weakness, the trend could resume, as seen after the previous intervention in April. The BoJ does not directly target exchange rates, but Governor Ueda could emphasize that policymakers are closely monitoring the impact of currency movements on the inflation outlook.

The BoJ is likely to preserve a gradual tightening bias without explicitly committing to the timing of its next move. Market pricing indicates that investors expect at least one additional 25-basis-point increase before the end of the year, although expectations remain divided between the October and December meetings, according to Reuters.

Ueda’s communication will therefore be decisive. A stronger emphasis on upside inflation risks, wage growth or the economic consequences of the weak Japanese Yen could reinforce expectations of an October rate hike. Conversely, a cautious assessment of consumption and global demand could encourage investors to push those expectations towards December.

How could the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision affect USD/JPY?

USD/JPY enters the BoJ meeting under very different conditions after plunging more than 2% on Thursday amid speculation that Japanese authorities intervened to support the Japanese Yen. With the decision to keep interest rates unchanged already largely priced in, the pair's next move will depend on whether Governor Ueda reinforces expectations for another rate hike later this year.

A hawkish outcome, including stronger warnings about inflation or a clear indication that another rate increase could come as early as October, may support the Japanese Yen and push USD/JPY lower. Markets could interpret such language as evidence that the BoJ is prepared to continue narrowing the interest-rate gap between Japan and other major economies.

By contrast, a neutral or cautious message could leave the JPY vulnerable. Should Ueda stress downside risks to growth or avoid discussing the timing of the next rate increase, USD/JPY could rebound as investors unwind expectations of near-term tightening.

Thursday's sharp decline suggests that intervention fears may already have materialized. Although Japanese authorities have yet to confirm any action, the sudden appreciation of the Japanese Yen bears the hallmarks of previous interventions, shifting investors' attention to whether the move can be sustained by a more hawkish BoJ or proves to be only temporary without additional policy support.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) also remains part of the equation after keeping interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a fifth consecutive meeting. Although the decision matched market expectations, the US Dollar (USD) weakened as investors unwound bets on a surprise rate hike. That softer USD could offer some additional support to the Japanese Yen, meaning that any hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan may have a greater impact on USD/JPY if the Greenback remains under pressure.

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades just under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 160.08, which caps the topside and keeps the near-term bias slightly bearish despite the broader uptrend. Price holds above a dense support area defined by the horizontal floor around 158.00, the rising 200-day SMA at 157.94 and the uptrend support around 157.77, suggesting downside attempts could initially stall in this region. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward 30, hinting at emerging oversold conditions that may temper selling pressure but not yet imply a decisive bullish reversal while the pair trades below the 100-day SMA.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 160.08, followed by the horizontal barrier around 160.60, while a more distant hurdle emerges at the cycle high at 163.99, which would come into play on a sustained recovery. On the downside, the first area to watch is the current pivot zone around 159.43, with further support aligning at 158.00, backed by the 200-day SMA near 157.94 and the trend-line support at 157.77. A daily close below this cluster would reinforce the bearish tone and open the door to a deeper corrective phase.

Here is what you need to know for Friday, July 31:

The US Dollar (USD) falls sharply during the American session on Thursday after United States economic growth missed expectations and underlying inflation moderated. Additional pressure comes from a sudden surge in the Japanese Yen (JPY), which fuels speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined around 0.8% and trades near 100.00, falling below the psychological 100.00 level. Preliminary US Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, below the 2.1% market forecast. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rose only 0.1% MoM in June, compared with expectations of 0.2%, while the annual rate eased to 3.3% from 3.4%.

US data were not entirely weak, as Initial Jobless Claims came in at 197K, below the expected 200K. The GDP Price Index also surged 6.3%, well above the 3.6% forecast, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain elevated despite slower economic growth.

EUR/USD advances around 0.5% and trades near 1.1530, reaching its highest level in several weeks. Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter, twice the expected 0.2%, while annual growth accelerated to 1.0%. Spain led the regional expansion with quarterly growth of 0.7%, while Germany, France and Italy each grew 0.2%. German annual inflation also accelerated to 2.8%, supporting expectations that the European Central Bank will remain cautious about further monetary easing.

GBP/USD rises around 0.8% and trades near 1.3470 after the Bank of England delivered a hawkish hold. The BoE maintained its Bank Rate at 3.75%, but three policymakers voted for a 25-basis-point increase, compared with expectations for two. The 6–3 decision indicated that concerns about persistent inflation remain significant among Monetary Policy Committee members.

USD/JPY plunges around 2.4% and trades near 159.50 as the Japanese Yen strengthens abruptly across the market. The speed and scale of the movement raise speculation that Japan’s Ministry of Finance instructed the Bank of Japan to purchase Yen, although the operation has not been officially confirmed. Investors will closely monitor comments from Japanese authorities ahead of Friday’s BoJ policy announcement.

AUD/USD surges around 1.1% and trades near 0.7030, moving above the 0.7000 psychological level. The Australian Dollar benefits from broad Greenback weakness and improved demand for risk-sensitive currencies following the softer US growth and monthly inflation figures.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil falls around 0.7% and trades near $84 per barrel. Crude prices struggle to retain their recent gains as concerns about slower US economic growth offset continued geopolitical uncertainty and potential risks to Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Gold rises around 1.1% and trades near $4,113 per troy ounce, supported by the weaker US Dollar and softer core PCE reading. Silver outperforms, gaining almost 3% and climbing toward $59.20 per ounce as demand for precious metals strengthens.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1%. Attention will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement, quarterly Outlook Report and press conference for signals about further rate increases and comments regarding the Yen’s sudden appreciation.

The European calendar will feature preliminary Eurozone inflation data. Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to remain at 2.4% YoY, while headline inflation is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%. Germany will publish unemployment figures, while France and Italy will release preliminary inflation data.

In the United States, the Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.8% in the second quarter. Investors will also monitor the Chicago PMI, final Michigan Consumer Sentiment and one-year and five-year consumer inflation expectations. Canada will publish monthly GDP, which is forecast to grow 0.2% in May.

TD Securities’ Senior Asia Economist Alex Loo assesses the July Politburo meeting, noting no major new stimulus despite acknowledged growth challenges. The focus is on fiscal execution, accelerating spending and bond use to support the Six Networks infrastructure program. Loo expects stronger fiscal implementation to lift China’s GDP growth to 4.6% in 2026, with potential off-cycle stimulus if US-China trade tensions escalate.

Politburo signals cautious policy stance

"As we expected, the Politburo (China's top leadership) refrained from announcing any large-scale stimulus plans since growth risks haven't worsened materially."

"The Politburo's focus is squarely on policy execution for H2 2026, especially on fiscal implementation as the Politburo called for an acceleration in the "pace of fiscal spending and bond fund utilization to vigorously promote the construction of key projects and new infrastructure, as well as new social development initiatives"."

"For 2026, the broad budget deficit (combination of official deficit, special local government bond quota, and special sovereign bond) is estimated at CNY11.8tn, similar to 2025. Meeting this full-year target implies another CNY7.2 trillion (5.2% of GDP), which is a substantial fiscal impulse and could boost GDP growth in the second half."

"If authorities manage to ramp up fiscal execution, we expect GDP growth to recover from the 4.3% y/y in Q2, and we expect full-year GDP growth to land at 4.6%, in line with the GDP target range for 2026 at "4.5-5.0%"."

"In this scenario, we would expect China to respond tit-for-tat, and a further escalation would likely prompt a fresh stimulus announcement at the October Politburo Economic meeting in the form of a supplementary budget like in October 2023."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

RaboResearch highlights Oil as the dominant input for UK monetary policy. The Bank of England’s central forecast assumes Oil prices fall from $76 to around $71, with inflation peaking near 3.2%, but Brent already trades above $90. A severe scenario with Oil at $100 implies inflation at 4% or higher, underscoring upside risks for UK assets.

Energy path shapes BoE outlook

"Oil remains of course the swing factor, but the bar for a September hike still looks high."

"In the central case, based on the oil futures curve in the first half of July, oil prices fall from $76 in the third quarter to around $71 by the end of the forecast period."

"Indeed, in the severe scenario (also in Table 1), oil rises to $100 and stays there, which is closer to today’s starting point than the central forecast."

"The takeaway is clear: the most important input for UK monetary policy right now is oil, and oil is both impossible to forecast with confidence and completely outside the UK’s control."

"We think monetary policy will respond only if a lasting energy shock starts to feed into wages, prices or expectations."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur argues that China’s large trade surplus, driven increasingly by green technology exports, is supporting a stronger Chinese Yuan. The bank expects USD/CNY to remain in a 6.75–6.80 range near term, with a gradual appreciation of the CNY against the US Dollar, while EUR/CNY is forecast to rise as the Euro strengthens.

Trade surplus underpins CNY stability

"China therefore remains in the comfortable position of posting a high foreign trade surplus. As a result, large sums of foreign currency continue to flow into the country each month, seeking investment opportunities."

"A look at the foreign currency settlement data from Chinese banks shows that significantly more US dollars are still entering the Chinese banking system each month than are leaving it. Consequently, Chinese state-owned banks in particular continue to build up their foreign exchange reserves."

"The stable performance of the CNY is therefore likely to continue in the coming months, as this is in line with the Chinese government’s wishes. For most of the past two and a half months, the USD/CNY exchange rate has moved sideways between 6.75 and 6.80."

"Looking ahead, we expect the CNY to continue to move within this range. We still expect a slight appreciation - albeit at a slower pace than before - against the US dollar to support the internationalization of the RMB."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• XAG/USD rises for second day, reclaiming the $59.00 handle.
• RSI improves from bearish territory, though conviction remains limited.
• Failure below $56.64 exposes the yearly low at $54.77.

Silver price advances for the second straight day and hits a three-day high above $59.00mid growing speculation of intervention in the foreign exchange markets, to boost the Yen, and weaken the Greenback. At tht time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $59.22                                                                                           

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The white metal, enjoyed eight days of consolidation, with no clear bias. However, the XAG/USD began to show signs of life, after reclaiming $59.00, though still respecting the downward market structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that neither buyer nor sellers are in charge, even though it sits in bearish territory. Worth noting that the index is aiming higher, since four trading days ago.

For a bullish continuation, the XAG/USD must clear the psychological $60.00 mark. A breach of the latter exposes the July 22 peak at $60.94, before challenging $61.00.

Downwards, sellers, must drag Silver below the July 28 daily low of $56.64, before the white metal tumbles and test the yearly low of $54.77.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold rallies as suspected Yen intervention drives Dollar sharply lower.
• Softer US GDP and PCE data ease Fed hike bets.
• Warsh’s vague guidance keeps long-end yield premium elevated.

Gold price advances some 0.92% on Thursday after the US Dollar drops following a suspected intervention in the foreign exchange markets, with the Japanese Yen hitting a near two-month high versus the Greenback. The XAU/USD trades at $4,100 after bouncing off the low of the day (LOD) at $4,028.

XAU/USD climbs above $4,100 as Dollar weakness, softer growth and reduced Fed hike odds support Bullion

The Greenback tumbles nearly 0.90% as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, exchanges hands at 99.90. Speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets boosted the precious metal to a five-day high of $4,126.

US inflation came as expected, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in June, ticked lower from 3.4% to 3.3% YoY as expected. The headline PCE slowed from 4.1% to 3.7% YoY, as expected.

Other data showed that the US economy grew more slowly than expected, according to the Commerce Department. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2026 missed forecasts of 2.1% growth, coming in at 1.5%, due to a widening trade deficit.

Last Wednesday, the Fed held rates unchanged, though the decision was not unanimous. A 9-3 vote split revealed that three Fed Regional Bank Presidents dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

US jobless claims increased below estimates last week, hinting that the labour market remains solid.

Also, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, emphatically stated that tackling inflation is the priority, though he dodged questions about how the Fed will do its job. The lack of clarity and forward guidance pushed the premium on the US 30-year bond yield to a level last seen in 2007 near 5.21%.

Money markets trimmed their Fed-hawkish bets for September. Instead, the odds of a rate hike are a slim, 30%, while the chances of a hold have risen sharply to 70%, according to Prime Terminal data.

However, the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf War could lead to higher energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude benchmark, is down 1% during the day at $83.59, but is up nearly 20% in July so far. 

On Friday, the US economic docket will feature University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold recovers $4,100, eyes on $4,150

Gold’s price continues to trade sideways, despite registering two days of solid gains, clearing the $4,100 mark. Momentum turned bullish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced above the 50 neutral level, an indication that buyers are moving in.

For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the July 22 daily high at $4,165, which would open the path to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,194. Above sits the July 6 peak at $4,202.

Downward, the first XAU/USD support is $4,100. A breach of the latter will expose the July 24 (LOD) at $4,022. This comes ahead of the psychological $4,000 level and then the June 17 daily low at $3,959.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that Malaysia’s solid growth, low inflation and prudent policy are supporting the Ringgit, but rising domestic political risks could drive USD/MYR in coming months. Despite strong external demand and contained inflation, state election outcomes and coalition dynamics may add a risk premium to the Ringgit and trigger temporary weakness.

Ringgit supported but politics key

"The combination of high US yields, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and rising domestic political risks are putting some near-term downward pressure on the ringgit. While our base case is for the Middle East conflict to be contained rather than developing into a full-blown regional war, oil supply disruptions could keep inflation concerns alive globally and delay Fed easing. Indeed, tanker flows through Hormuz have collapsed after the June ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding between US and Iran collapsed early this month."

"However, we look for ringgit weakness to be contained, given Malaysia's supportive growth backdrop, contained inflation, strong external sector, and prudent policymaking, which should help prevent disorderly currency depreciation."

"From a currency perspective, authorities have also demonstrated a willingness to smooth recent excessive FX volatility. Similar to measures implemented in 2024, we expect continued efforts to encourage export conversion and repatriation flows by government linked corporates should the ringgit come under excessive pressure."

"While economics remains supportive, domestic political developments could become a more important driver of USD/MYR over the coming months. Political uncertainty surrounding state elections, party coalition dynamics, or speculation around the timing of a future general election could generate periods of temporary ringgit weakness. Following the Johor state election on 11 July where the ruling PH coalition party has a poor showing, the upcoming Negeri Sembilan state election on 1 August will serve as a key political signal."

"Heightened election and political uncertainty could introduce a higher risk premium on the ringgit."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank Research notes that USD/KRW has fallen to its lowest level since February as South Korean authorities tighten rules on leveraged ETFs to curb Kospi volatility. Expectations of further Bank of Korea (BoK) tightening, driven by Governor Shin Hyun-sung’s comments on inflation, and export earnings repatriation have supported the Korean Won (KRW) despite sharp equity market losses.

Won gains as regulators act

"The Finance Ministry announced additional measures to curb equity market volatility following an emergency meeting yesterday."

"To stabilize the market, authorities plan to curb retail participation in leveraged ETFs by capping portfolio exposure to these products and raising trading costs."

"The latest measures build on those announced in mid-July, including a suspension of new leveraged ETF listings and an increase in the minimum account balance required to purchase existing leveraged ETFs to KRW30mn from KRW10mn."

"The Finance Ministry faces mounting political scrutiny over whether single-stock leveraged ETFs amplified the recent market volatility. During a parliamentary hearing yesterday, opposition lawmakers from the People’s Power Party questioned the rapid rollout of leveraged ETFs despite prior warnings from the asset management industry."

"In FX, USD/KRW fell 0.7% to 1,444 yesterday, reaching its lowest level since 27 February. This was partly driven by rising expectations of further monetary tightening after BoK Governor Shin Hyun-sung told a parliamentary committee that tighter monetary policy may be needed to address mounting inflationary pressures. The pair has fallen 7.3% since 1 July as export earnings repatriation activity accelerated."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• WTI trades more than 1.5% lower just above the $82.00 handle, giving back part of Wednesday's surge while holding an advance that has carried it roughly 20% off the early-July low.
• A drone strike on two gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port opened a Mediterranean front, and both of the routes Saudi Arabia uses to bypass the Strait of Hormuz now sit inside the war.
• Negotiators in Muscat and Tehran are arguing over who controls and tolls the Strait rather than over ending the war, and the tape is treating the two as the same thing.

Crude Oil is lower on Thursday even as the war that sets its price reached a country it had spared for five months. WTI trades just above the $82.00 handle, down more than 1.5%, and Brent holds just above $86.50 with a near-identical loss after both gave back a chunk of Wednesday's rally. The tape is not reading the escalation at all. It is reading a shipping negotiation in Muscat.

The war found a fourth front

A drone struck two gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port on Wednesday, setting a floating storage unit alight and spreading fire to a carrier alongside it. Cairo confirmed the cause on Thursday and no party has claimed responsibility. Egypt had been left alone since late February, which matters because the Suez Canal and the pipeline crossing Egyptian territory to the Mediterranean have been the safe northbound route for Saudi cargoes ever since Hormuz stopped working.

The southern bypass has been under attack for longer, with Yemen's Houthis claiming a strike this week on the East-West pipeline that carries the kingdom's barrels to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, days after they declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has since joined US forces hitting Tehran-linked militia sites in Iraq. Every route built to avoid the chokepoint is now a target.

Kazakhstan lost its own export route on the same morning, for reasons that have nothing to do with Tehran. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) halted loading at its terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, a line moving near 1.5 million barrels a day, after drones hit a tanker taking on cargo at a mooring and a second waiting its turn.

Nobody has claimed those strikes, the latest in a run on the same terminal going back to last November that belongs to Ukraine's war rather than Iran's. Four export routes are now under attack from two separate wars, and Crude Oil is down on the day.

What Muscat is actually negotiating

The rally keeps getting sold on the same headline, which is progress in the Iran-Oman talks over the Strait. Those talks are not about ending the war. Tehran rejected Muscat's proposal for shared oversight of the waterway on Tuesday and countered with an arrangement handing Iran more control, while its deputy foreign minister warned that the Strait stays shut if Oman refuses and that toll-free transit is not coming back.

Iran's foreign ministry says there are no plans to negotiate with Washington at all, so the most bullish plausible outcome here is a waterway reopening under Iranian supervision with a fee attached. That is a permanent cost on every Gulf barrel, not the removal of a risk premium. Tanker trackers counted 14 transits on Wednesday against roughly 100 a day before the war, and the market bought that as normalization.

The barrels do not agree

Commercial Crude Oil inventories fell 7.2 million barrels in the week to 24 July, roughly six times the expected draw, leaving stocks at 404.5 million barrels and about 7% beneath the five-year average. Cushing, the delivery hub behind WTI, sits near 19.4 million barrels, the tank-bottom level where storage stops being useful. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is near 307.7 million barrels after an eighteenth consecutive weekly draw, its lowest in more than four decades.

Against that, Chinese buyers are sitting on ample stocks and staying out of the import market, which is the one honest bearish input on the board and no explanation for Thursday. The Dollar is down close to 1% and US equity indices are sharply higher, which is the exact backdrop that normally supports a Dollar-priced commodity. Crude Oil falling into that combination is not a demand signal. It is war premium leaving the price.

Sunday's meeting and Friday's data

Seven producers meet virtually on Sunday, having already agreed an August increase of 188K barrels a day, the fifth consecutive monthly addition and a rounding error against a chokepoint running at a fraction of its normal throughput. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) carries a quieter deadline too, because Iran's 2027 production baseline will be measured from its August, September and October output. Tehran's quota for years ahead is being set during the months Washington is blockading its tankers.

Friday brings the Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 12:30 GMT and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 13:45 GMT, the demand-side check after a growth print that missed and a deflator that ran at 6.3% against a 3.6% consensus. The next inventory report lands 5 August, and on current trend it will show the same tightening the tape keeps declining to price.

WTI technical levels

Resistance: Thursday's high short of $84.50 caps the first attempt higher, above which the $86.00 area and then last week's spike high near $92.00 come back into play.

Support: The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $81.50 held the session low, with the $80.00 handle beneath it and the 200-day EMA near $78.00 the level that would end the July advance outright.

Bias: Bullish while $81.50 holds. A daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) near 87 argues the next few sessions belong to sellers, but the peace being discounted is a toll booth rather than an armistice, and dips into the 50-day are worth owning. A daily close beneath $81.50 invalidates and opens the $80.00 handle.

WTI daily chart