Forex News
- EUR/JPY edges slightly lower to around 177.70 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- The negative outlook of the cross remains intact below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.
- The first downside target emerges at 176.52; the immediate resistance level is seen in the 177.95-178.00 zone.
The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 177.70 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as street riots in France raise concerns over political stability. Zew Surveys from Germany and the Eurozone will be released later on Tuesday. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker José Luis Escrivá is set to speak.
French authorities have imposed overnight curfews in parts of central Paris and other cities after a weekend of riots and looting across the country, per the BBC. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Monday that he was “fully resolved to restore public order” and had called for “local and partial” curfews if needed. There was “no question” of imposing a full curfew on entire cities, he said.
On the Japanese front, hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker could underpin the JPY. BoJ policy board member Junko Koeda said that there is no need to be excessively cautious about rate hikes given that upside inflation risks remain substantial.
Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that underlying inflation is "quite close" to the central bank's 2% target, with strong global AI demand adding to inflationary pressure from a tight job market, signalling scope for further rate increases.
Global bond selloff shifts focus to cross-currency rate trades
Strategists at Societe Generale note that the recent global bond rout has been broad-based, with the move in US Treasuries rippling across major markets. They highlight that “the bond selloff has put pressure on bonds everywhere, and a 1% rise in 10yr US yields this year has sent gilts up by 93bp, BTPs by 94bp and OATs by 123bp.”
Societe Generale argues that while this “brings its own narrative to the market,” the extent of the US move means “if the US rate story is getting stretched, that does reinforce the notion that selling EUR/JPY and GBP/AUD here, may be a better risk-reward strategy than selling EUR/USD and GBP/USD at these levels.” In their view, the current backdrop favours cross-currency relative-rate trades over outright Dollar or Pound positions.
Ueda keeps BoJ cautiously hawkish as inflation nears target
Ueda’s 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score is slightly below the historic 7.4/10 baseline, but the emphasis on “underlying inflation near 2%” and a positive wages–prices loop marks a mildly hawkish tilt. The focus on demand-led inflation from robust global activity, tight labor markets and domestic capex, alongside warnings that miscalibrated policy could push long-term rates higher, reinforces a narrative that the BoJ is edging closer to further normalization while keeping financial conditions accommodative.
At the same time, Ueda’s insistence on no shift in the fundamental bond taper approach and refusal to preannounce emergency JGB measures signal a desire to avoid market overreaction while retaining flexibility. For FX, the combination of rising inflation, the prospect of steady increases in long-term yields if short-term rates are lifted, and a commitment to stabilizing the JGB market is modestly supportive for the Yen, especially if global risk sentiment remains fragile amid Middle East-driven energy price pressures.
Technical Analysis: Bearish tone of EUR/JPY prevails under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish tone as it holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and remains well under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is also capped beneath the upper Bollinger band, reinforcing a downside bias while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 42.80 suggests subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions.
On the downside, initial support level is located at the October 15 low of 176.52. The next contention level to watch is the lower limit of Bollinger band around 175.80, where sellers may consider booking profits on further weakness.
On the topside, immediate resistance level appears in the 177.95-178.00 zone, representing the 20-period Bollinger SMA and psychological level. A stronger barrier is seen at the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 180.10, while the 100-day SMA at 182.75 marks a major resistance level that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- GBP/USD rises to near 1.3333 ahead of the UK employment data for three months ending August.
- This week, other notable UK economic releases are the CPI, Retail Sales and flash S&P Global PMI data.
- AI jitters continue to keep the US Dollar under pressure.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.22% higher at around 1.3333 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending August, which will be published at 06:00 GMT.
According to estimates, the ILO Unemployment Rate increased to 5% from 4.9% in three months ending July. Average Earnings Including Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, drops to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 3.9%. However, the wage growth measure Excluding Bonuses is seen higher at 3.6% YoY from 3.5% in quarter ending July.
The employment data is expected to have a significant impact on Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy expectations.
This week, the major trigger for BoE’s policy expectations is expected to be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday. Other notable UK economic data releases are Retail Sales for September and the preliminary S&P Global PMI for October, which are scheduled for Friday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure amid concerns regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending by United States (US) hyperscalers. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower to near 101.77.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.70% | -0.95% | -0.25% | -1.39% | -0.33% | -1.59% | -1.26% | |
| EUR | 0.70% | -0.22% | 0.46% | -0.73% | 0.41% | -0.85% | -0.55% | |
| GBP | 0.95% | 0.22% | 0.70% | -0.47% | 0.61% | -0.65% | -0.28% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.46% | -0.70% | -1.14% | -0.01% | -1.32% | -0.89% | |
| CAD | 1.39% | 0.73% | 0.47% | 1.14% | 1.09% | -0.21% | 0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | -0.41% | -0.61% | 0.01% | -1.09% | -1.25% | -0.88% | |
| NZD | 1.59% | 0.85% | 0.65% | 1.32% | 0.21% | 1.25% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | 1.26% | 0.55% | 0.28% | 0.89% | -0.19% | 0.88% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3333. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3289, which suggests a mildly bullish near-term bias as buyers defend the recent recovery off last week’s lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits just above the neutral band, hinting that upside momentum is constructive but not yet stretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 1.3333 area as an intraday pivot, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3289, where a deeper pullback would likely attract fresh demand. With no major technical barriers overhead in this dataset, the pair would need a clear break below 1.3289 to undermine the current positive tone and expose a more corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Oct 20, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 4.9%
Previous: 4.9%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
- USD/CHF falls as the US Dollar eases as markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady in October.
- CME FedWatch suggests that traders expect unchanged Fed rates in October, with a 93.5% probability of a December hike.
- Low Swiss borrowing costs make the Franc a popular funding source, weighing on its value.
USD/CHF depreciates after posting modest gains the previous day, trading around 0.8250 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) weakens under growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expressed optimism last week regarding the resilience of the US economy, though he refrained from offering specific guidance on the timing or likelihood of future rate adjustments. According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures traders expect the central bank to maintain current rates at its October policy meeting, while pricing in a 93.5% probability of a rate hike in December.
Dollar rally faces reassessment as Fed hike expectations look stretched
DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that recent commentary from the Fed has tempered expectations for an imminent move, with officials having "downplayed the prospect of a rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting." He argues this has left markets increasingly uneasy that policy "has priced in an uninterrupted Fed-hiking cycle too aggressively," reinforcing the risk that investors may pause before adding to long Dollar positions as they reassess the durability of current tightening assumptions.
However, the downside for the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) faces headwinds from a widening interest rate differential with the United States (US) and selling pressure driven by carry trades. Expectations that US borrowing costs will remain elevated while Swiss rates stay among the world's lowest have enhanced the Franc's appeal as a funding currency. The resulting sell-off of Franc-denominated loans tends to weigh on the currency as investors pivot toward higher-yielding assets.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has held its policy rate at 0% for over a year, with Chair Martin Schlegel noting that no immediate adjustment is needed given stable inflation. While economists project rates will stay on hold through 2027, markets are beginning to price in a potential hike in early 2027. Meanwhile, Swiss policymakers have notably scaled back their threats of direct currency intervention.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8250. The pair sits above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the nine-day EMA, leaving the near-term tone neutral with a slight topside cap. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.0 hovers near its midline, suggesting consolidative momentum after the recent pullback, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index around 127.5 hints at a softer policy backdrop that is not yet driving a clear directional break.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the nine-day EMA at 0.8283, and a decisive close above this barrier would open the way for a stronger recovery phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the current price pivot near 0.8249, ahead of firmer demand around the 50-day EMA at 0.8215; a drop through this latter level would weaken the short-term structure and expose deeper losses toward previous lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- Gold price trades flat at around $4,140 after recovering its slight early losses.
- Signs of recovery in US bond yields and higher oil prices to keep the Gold price under pressure.
- Investors keenly await Meta's Q3 earnings scheduled for Wednesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) flattens at around $4,140 in the Asian trade on Tuesday after a slightly weak opening performance. The precious metal has remained in a tight range between $4,063.55 and $4,227.53 for almost three weeks as the upside has remained capped due to rising oil prices, while a recovery in demand for United States (US) bonds offered support.
However, the outlook of the Gold price appears to be dampening again as Treasury Yields have shown signs of recovery, with US hyperscalers set to report their Q3 earnings in near time.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields hold on to Monday’s gains at around 5.15%. Theoretically, higher yields on US-backed assets diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
What to expect from Q3 earnings of US hyperscalers
The US Q3 earnings season has kicked off and Meta will one of five hyperscalers, which will be the first to report its quarterly performance on Wednesday. Microsoft, Amazon and Google are scheduled to report their Q3 results next week.
According to Goldman Sachs, Meta is one of five AI hyperscalers expected to increase combined capital expenditure to about $1.2 trillion next year, Reuters reports.
Such a case would accelerate US Treasury yields, making growth a compelling bet for investors compared to traditional assets.
US Treasury Yields were under pressure in the past few weeks, as market experts started doubting the sustainability of continued investments by hyperscalers in building data centres.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlighted that, against the backdrop of mounting AI-related growth concerns, fixed income markets saw a notable flight to safety, with these worries helping to “drive a decent rally for sovereign bonds.” In particular, they point out that the “US 10yr Treasury yield” was “down 16.5bps last week (+1.5bps on Friday) to 5.07%,” underscoring the extent of the move as investors reassessed the growth outlook and rotated into government paper.
Oil price rises amid high risk premium due to Middle East risks
The oil prices have gained almost 15% in the past two weeks from their recent lows of $86.32. At press time, the WTI Oil price trades slightly higher at around $98.45. Market participants continue to offer risk premium to oil prices amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Reports showing that Iran could extend the scope of blockade to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, and is prepared for retaliation against US-Israel attacks have prompted fears of energy supply risks.
A secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, warned this weekend that Tehran has prepared a new retaliation plan for any renewed US-Israeli attack.
Fed moves into blackout period
The blackout period for Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers ahead of the monetary policy announcement has started. So far we know, several Fed officials have stressed on bringing inflation down to the 2% target, but have not indicated any urgency for another interest rate hike.
The CME FedWatch tool also shows traders are confident that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in October and raise them in December.
Gold Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,146.00, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,186.57. The metal has retreated from recent highs and now sits below this key dynamic barrier, suggesting that rallies are being capped by overhead supply. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.66 stays below the midline, hinting at still-negative, though not oversold, momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,186.57, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards $4,300. On the downside, the psychological level of $4,000 is expected to remain key support for the precious metal.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,647.01 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,638.15 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 147,508.70 per tola from INR 147,408.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 12,647.01 |
10 Grams | 126,467.10 |
Tola | 147,508.70 |
Troy Ounce | 393,368.20 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- EUR/USD rises to near 1.1230 at the expense of the US Dollar.
- Investors keenly await Meta Q3 earnings.
- French fiscal woes and Russia-Ukraine tensions keep the Euro under pressure.
The Euro (EUR) is up 0.15% at around 1.1230 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar is under pressure ahead of Meta Q3 earnings on Wednesday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 101.80. The DXY has been under pressure for a week amid concerns regarding the continuation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending by United States (US) hyperscalers.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.68% | -0.94% | -0.25% | -1.41% | -0.33% | -1.55% | -1.23% | |
| EUR | 0.68% | -0.23% | 0.44% | -0.75% | 0.37% | -0.85% | -0.54% | |
| GBP | 0.94% | 0.23% | 0.70% | -0.46% | 0.61% | -0.62% | -0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.44% | -0.70% | -1.13% | -0.00% | -1.28% | -0.85% | |
| CAD | 1.41% | 0.75% | 0.46% | 1.13% | 1.09% | -0.18% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.33% | -0.37% | -0.61% | 0.00% | -1.09% | -1.22% | -0.86% | |
| NZD | 1.55% | 0.85% | 0.62% | 1.28% | 0.18% | 1.22% | 0.44% | |
| CHF | 1.23% | 0.54% | 0.25% | 0.85% | -0.22% | 0.86% | -0.44% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The third quarter earnings report by Meta would reflect whether hyperscalers are stick to their investment agenda what they committed in previous quarters.
According to Goldman Sachs, Meta is one of five AI hyperscalers expected to increase combined capital expenditure to about $1.2 trillion next year, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, the Euro is broadly under pressure due to continued tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and French fiscal risks.
Euro underperforms as French assets lag and geopolitical worries build
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Euro is underperforming, pointing to “widespread and violent protests across France against poor conditions in schools and hospitals and broader concerns about affordability” as a key drag on sentiment. They add that French equities and fixed income have come under particular pressure, noting that “French stocks and bonds are underperforming and bond spreads versus Germany have widened to 145bps, sitting at the top of the (recent) historic range.”
Geopolitical risk is also feeding into the cautious tone. Scotiabank flags comments from President Zelenskyy, who said “the US is pushing Ukraine, not Russia to concede,” which the bank suggests is adding to broader geopolitical concerns around the Euro complex.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1232, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1274. The pair’s inability to reclaim this EMA suggests that recent bounces are still capped by overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 40.28 recovers from oversold territory but stays below the midline, hinting at only modest improvement in downside momentum rather than a clear bullish shift.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA at 1.1274, which acts as the first barrier that bulls would need to overcome to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more sustained corrective phase. On the downside, the October 14 low at 1.1113 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- Silver prices may depreciate amid rising expectations of tighter monetary policy.
- Markets price in roughly a 94% probability of a Fed rate hike in December.
- BoJ's Ueda signaled the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $57.40 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. However, Silver prices may fall as higher oil prices boost inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Oil jumps on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks
Analysts at Rabobank report that oil prices “surged following further reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” after Iran claimed that “two tankers carrying up to 4 million barrels of crude were struck by marine mines.” The bank notes that the incident has sharply heightened geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex, reinforcing concerns over the security of key Middle East supply routes.
The white metal also faces pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields. Oil prices remained firm amid escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, against signs of robust energy flows from the Persian Gulf.
In the Middle East, Iran has continued to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime authorities reporting multiple attacks on commercial ships. Tensions further escalated as Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen traded strikes, while Russia and Ukraine simultaneously resumed targeted attacks on energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, with markets pricing in roughly a 93.5% probability of a rate hike in December. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is expected to implement at least one additional 25-basis-point rate increase this year to address persistent inflationary pressures. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that underlying inflation was “quite close” to the central bank’s 2% target, signaling the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Analysts at Scotiabank observe that, despite the recent softening in the Dollar, "markets may be reluctant to chase the USD lower into the FOMC at the end of the month." They add that the shift in rate expectations has eroded some of the currency’s yield advantage, noting that "reduced yield support may leave the USD prone to more weakness ahead," even if investors remain cautious about extending bearish positions immediately before the upcoming Fed meeting.
(The story was corrected on October 20 at 04:30 GMT to say in the third bullet point, BoJ's Ueda and not Fed's Ueda.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- US Dollar Index softens to around 101.80 in Tuesday’s early European session.
- Fed’s Warsh made no remarks on monetary policy or his outlook for the US economy.
- Traders see an 82.8% odds that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 101.80 in the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The DXY declines as traders continue to assess the outlook for US interest rates ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. The US ADP employment, Housing Starts, and Building Permits reports are due later in the day.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed last week that US inflation came in hotter than expected, with wholesale prices rising 6.3% YoY in September. This marks the biggest jump since 2022. Additionally, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY in September, beating estimates.
Remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week have boosted market expectations of a rate hold in the October policy meeting. Warsh expressed optimism about US economic strength but did not indicate whether or when more hikes would be needed.
“We made very clear that we would deliver price stability, and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago,” said Warsh. “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” he added.
Markets are now pricing in an 82.8% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will leave borrowing costs unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Dollar softens as Fed expectations are pared and China data lifts Aussie and Kiwi
Analysts at Scotiabank note that the "USD is mixed to a little softer on the session as markets continue to reconsider near-term Fed tightening expectations." They add that "markets may be reluctant to chase the USD lower into the FOMC at the end of the month, but reduced yield support may leave the USD prone to more weakness ahead," suggesting investors are cautious about extending Dollar downside yet remain mindful of the shifting rate backdrop.
Scotiabank also highlights that "trends across the G10 currencies are mixed; the AUD and NZD are outperforming behind stronger than expected Chinese Q3 GDP data (4.5% Y/Y) while the EUR is underperforming following the widespread protests in France," underscoring a divergent performance across majors as China’s growth surprise and French political tensions drive relative moves.
Warsh flags investment surge and AI focus but avoids policy pre-commitment
Fed Chair Warsh’s speech scores 5.6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly below the 6.1/10 established baseline, pointing to a slightly less impactful communication than usual despite a broadly constructive macro tone. The admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscores a cautious bias toward financial stability even as Warsh highlights structural growth and an investment surge driven by “good policies,” while firmly refusing to prejudge the October and December meetings, which keeps Dollar traders focused on data rather than guidance. Warsh’s emphasis on AI as a near-term demand-side force and a tool to strengthen monetary policy analytics, alongside plans for an AI field hearing, reinforces a forward-looking stance but stops short of signaling any imminent policy shift.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a level of 127.51, which keeps the Fed firmly in hawkish territory despite the speech’s slightly softer score on the FXS Speechtracker. With the index well above the neutral 100 mark, markets are likely to interpret Warsh’s caution and focus on investment and AI as consistent with a Fed that remains biased toward maintaining or tightening policy rather than pivoting dovish.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, the near-term bias of Dollar Index Spot is bullish as price holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a constructive underlying demand zone. However, the index is now pressing into the upper half of the recent volatility envelope, with the Bollinger middle band acting as immediate resistance just overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.8 points to moderate, non-overextended upside momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near 101.85, ahead of a stronger cap at the upper Bollinger Band around 102.75, where bullish attempts could meet profit-taking. On the downside, support is seen first at the lower Bollinger Band at 100.95, with a deeper floor at the 100-day SMA near 100.50, and a sustained defense of this cluster would keep the broader rebound structure intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- USD/JPY holds steady near 158.50 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- BoJ Governor Ueda says underlying inflation is rising very close to the bank's 2% target.
- Traders are now pricing in an 82.8% odds that the Fed will leave borrowing costs unchanged next week.
The USD/JPY pair steadies around 158.50 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later on Friday. Meanwhile, elevated US bond yields provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi denied the notion that she’s responsible for a weak JPY and high interest rates. Takaichi said that her administration will increase confidence in the domestic currency by building a strong economy, adding that she will appropriately control the issuance of Japanese government bonds in next fiscal year’s budget.
Separately, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that underlying inflation is rising very close to the BoJ’s 2% target. Ueda also said that long-term bond yields may rise if the market perceives that the Japanese central bank is not raising the benchmark policy interest rate at an appropriate pace.
US Treasury bond yields edge higher as traders size up the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) approach ahead of its policy-setting meeting at the end of the month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see an 82.8% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, while expectations for a hike in December remain near 93.6%.
Japan CPI seen edging higher as BoJ tightening expectations stay muted, keeping USD/JPY anchored
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman expect Japan’s September inflation data due Friday to show a modest acceleration, with “headline CPI … expected at 2.1% y/y vs. 1.9% in August, core CPI ex. fresh food … expected at 2.1% y/y vs. 1.7% in August, and core CPI ex. fresh food & energy CPI … expected at 2.3% y/y vs. 1.9% in August.” However, they stress that the BoJ is “unlikely to crank up the pace of tightening” given that headline and core CPI ex. fresh food & energy are still “tracking below its 2026 projection of 2.5%.”
In rates markets, Brown Brothers Harriman notes that “the swaps curve price in less than 5% odds of a 25bps BoJ rate hike to 1.50% on October 30, and 80% probability of a hike on December 18,” underscoring expectations for a gradual normalization path. Against this backdrop, the bank believes “that leaves USD/JPY likely to trade within a 155.00-160.00 range in the near term.”
Ueda leans mildly hawkish as BoJ ties policy to durable 2% inflation
FXS Speechtracker scores the speech at 7/10, slightly below Ueda’s historic 7.4/10, but the emphasis on “underlying inflation near 2%” and a positive wages–prices loop marks a mildly hawkish tilt versus past caution. Ueda highlights demand-led inflation from robust global demand, domestic capex and tight labor markets, while warning that miscalibrated policy could push long-term JGB yields higher, signaling greater readiness to tolerate firmer rates as long as the 2% goal is credibly in sight.
At the same time, Ueda stresses no change in the fundamental bond taper approach and rejects preannouncing emergency JGB measures, framing any intervention as conditional on the speed of long-term rate moves and market stability. This combination of confidence in achieving the 2% target, acknowledgement of both supply- and demand-driven price pressures, and commitment to keep financial conditions accommodative supports a view that BoJ policy is gradually normalizing, which is modestly supportive for the Yen but constrained by a cautious approach to bond market operations.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains below the key 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, USD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot remains under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is holding above the 20-day Bollinger middle band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.69 shows modest positive momentum that only partly offsets the pressure from the overhead trend resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 20-day Bollinger upper band near 158.92, followed by the 100-day SMA at 159.45 as a stronger cap. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 158.05, ahead of the Bollinger lower band near 157.20, where buyers could attempt to slow any deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Higher crude oil prices support the Canadian Dollar amid mounting global supply and shipping concerns.
- Energy infrastructure attacks and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drastically cut Middle Eastern oil flows.
- The US Dollar faces pressure as traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady in October.
USD/CAD extends its losses for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.4090 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from an upside in oil prices.
Crude oil prices advance as market traders weigh escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. In the Middle East, Iran has continued to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime authorities reporting multiple attacks on commercial ships. Tensions further escalated as Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen traded strikes, while Russia and Ukraine simultaneously resumed targeted attacks on energy infrastructure.
These growing threats to commercial shipping led to a sharp, temporary disruption in regional trade. According to analytics firm Kpler, crude flows through the Middle East fell to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down from more than 20 million barrels per day the previous week, amid at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels.
BoC grapples with uneasy policy trade-offs as inflation risks linger
Economists at Royal Bank of Canada underline that the Bank of Canada is still navigating a difficult policy backdrop, with Abbey Xu noting that the central bank is "still facing an uncomfortable balance" between a soft domestic economy and emerging inflation risks, particularly from higher Oil prices. With headline inflation only slightly above target and core measures such as CPI excluding food and energy, CPI-trim and CPI-median hovering near 2%, RBC judges that this tension is likely to keep policymakers cautious, reinforcing a base case in which interest rates remain on hold through 2026.
The USD/CAD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh expressed optimism about the resilience of the US economy, though he refrained from offering specific guidance on the timing or likelihood of future rate adjustments. Financial markets are aligning with this cautious stance; according to the CME FedWatch tool, fed funds futures traders expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at its October policy meeting, while pricing in an 82.8% probability of a December rate hike.
Dollar index stays on the back foot as defensive tone persists
Analysts at Scotiabank highlight that the Dollar index remains under pressure at the start of the week, noting that “the DXY closed out last week on a weak note and price action overall so far today remains defensive.” This reinforces their view that the broader Dollar tone is still fragile as markets reassess the outlook for Fed policy.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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