Forex News
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Oil prices have extended gains as US–Iran tensions escalate and tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain under pressure. Large second-quarter inventory drawdowns and the imminent end of global SPR releases leave the market more exposed. Physical benchmarks like Dated Brent and Mars crude differentials are strengthening, underscoring tighter supply conditions.
Persian Gulf flows tighten physical market
"Oil prices managed to eke out a third day of gains amid few signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran. The US carried out additional strikes against Iran. There are also media reports that the US is considering increasing military operations."
"The concern is that renewed oil supply disruptions come amid the large inventory drawdowns through the second quarter, leaving the market more vulnerable. In addition, global SPR releases, which have helped the market out over recent months, are set to end in the next few weeks."
"The reduction in Persian Gulf energy flows is having an obvious impact on the physical market. Dated Brent vs. front-line Brent futures (DFL) is back at a premium of $1.30/bbl, having traded at a discount to the futures through late June and early July. Meanwhile, in the US, Mars crude differentials have rallied."
"According to the EIA, US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.69m barrels over the last week. When taking SPR releases into consideration, total crude oil inventories fell by 4.68m barrels. US commercial crude oil inventories remain near the lowest levels since 2022, while seasonally they are at their lowest level since 2018."
"However, middle distillate markets, both in the US and globally, remain very tight. This is well reflected in the strength in middle distillate cracks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver price declines to near $57.00 as elevated energy prices keep inflation expectations de-anchored.
- US President Trump threatens to widen attacks on Iranian infrastructure.
- The US CPI and PPI rose moderately in June, dimming hawkish Fed prospects.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.33% lower to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal faces selling pressure as elevated energy prices due to renewed aggression between the United States (US) and Iran have de-anchored inflation expectations again.
The scenario of higher global price rise projections forces central banks to support tight monetary conditions, which bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
The resurgence of the Middle East war seems unlikely to cease anytime soon, as US President Donald Trump has threatened to widen attacks on Iranian infrastructure next week if the nation doesn’t come to the table for negotiations.
We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate,” Trump says in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, traders have trimmed hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets as US inflation has cooled down at both retail and wholesale levels. Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for June have shown that price pressures cooled down significantly.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the meeting later this month have dropped significantly to 10.2% from 31% recorded a week ago.
Silver technical analysis
Bias: XAG/USD trades lower at around $57, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $60.75. The price action remains pressured by this overhead dynamic resistance, suggesting that rallies are likely to be capped while spot silver trades under the EMA.
Momentum: Momentum, reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.98, stays weak but above oversold territory, hinting at persistent selling pressure rather than a decisive exhaustion of the downtrend.
Resistance: On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $60.75, which is the key barrier bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a more sustained recovery. Above the 20-day EMA, the Silver price could advance towards the July 6 high of $61.37, followed by the June 22 high of $67.17.
Support: On the downside, the major support level for the Silver price is the June 24 low at $55.63; failing to hold the same would expose it to the psychological level at $50.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- The British Pound remains flat against its currency peers after the UK GDP data release.
- The UK GDP growth arrives at 0.1% MoM, as expected, after contracting at a similar pace in April.
- UK incoming PM Andy Burnham will likely name Shabana Mahmood as new FM.
The British Pound (GBP) remains almost muted against its major currency peers after the release of the monthly United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for May. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the economy expanded 0.1%, as expected, after contracting at a similar pace in April.
Signs of improving UK economic growth would be favorable for the British Pound in the near term
Meanwhile, the UK Industrial Production data for May has come in weaker than projected. The data contracted at a pace of 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM), stronger than 0.1% estimates. In April, the data was expanded by 0.2%, revised higher from 0%.
Broadly, the British Pound trades firmly amid reports that incoming Prime Minister (PM) Andy Burnham will name Shabana Mahmood as Finance Minister (FM), who is considered as A fiscal conservative by financial markets, Financial Times (FT) reported.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.56% | -1.08% | 0.24% | -0.76% | -0.71% | -1.55% | -0.21% | |
| EUR | 0.56% | -0.54% | 0.84% | -0.19% | -0.21% | -1.01% | 0.35% | |
| GBP | 1.08% | 0.54% | 1.34% | 0.33% | 0.33% | -0.47% | 0.94% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.84% | -1.34% | -1.08% | -0.96% | -1.84% | -0.51% | |
| CAD | 0.76% | 0.19% | -0.33% | 1.08% | 0.13% | -0.76% | 0.60% | |
| AUD | 0.71% | 0.21% | -0.33% | 0.96% | -0.13% | -0.80% | 0.47% | |
| NZD | 1.55% | 1.01% | 0.47% | 1.84% | 0.76% | 0.80% | 1.42% | |
| CHF | 0.21% | -0.35% | -0.94% | 0.51% | -0.60% | -0.47% | -1.42% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Going forward, major triggers for the Pound Sterling will be the UK employment and inflation data, which are scheduled for next week.
Against the US Dollar, the British Pound holds onto Wednesday’s gains, driven by soft United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June, which increase confidence of inflationary pressures waning.
The PPI report showed that the headline producer inflation decelerated to 5.5% from 6% in May, while the data was expected to arrive higher at 6.2%.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jul 16, 2026 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.1%
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: -0.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has broken above prior resistance, with rapid gains seen up to 1.1482. Intraday, the pair is seen capable of testing 1.1490 while staying below significant resistance at 1.1520. Over the next 1–3 weeks, upward momentum is building quickly, with an upside bias as long as 1.1405 strong support holds.
Rapid gains support constructive outlook
"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR popped to a high of 1.1462 two days ago before retreating quickly. When EUR was at 1.1425 yesterday, we stated that “the brief rise did not result in any significant increase in momentum,” and we expected it to “trade in a range between 1.1390 and 1.1455.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. EUR initially dropped to 1.1405 before rising sharply to 1.1482. While the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for EUR to test 1.1490. We do not expect the significant resistance at 1.1520 to come into view. Support is at 1.1450; a breach of 1.1435 would mean that the immediate upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (14 Jul, spot at 1.1385), we detected a slight increase in downward momentum. However, we pointed out that EUR “must close below 1.1360 before a move to 1.1325 can be expected.” After EUR broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level, we highlighted yesterday (15 Jul, spot at 1.1425) that “the mild downward momentum has eased, and EUR has likely reverted into a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.1390 and 1.1475.” We did not expect EUR to break above 1.1475 so soon as it soared to a high of 1.1482. Upward momentum is building quickly, and from here, as long as 1.1405 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached, EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias. Currently, it is too early to determine whether there is sufficient momentum for EUR to reach the significant resistance level at 1.1520."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- USD/JPY drifts lower for the third consecutive day and nears 162.00.
- Dwindling hopes that the Fed will hike rates in July have hurt the US Dollar this week.
- Momentum indicators show a lack of clear bias.
The US Dollar (USD) holds marginal losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at Thursday’s European session opening, and approaches the 162.00 area at the time of writing. Recent price action shows a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, forming a triangle pattern.
US data released this week has dampened market hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and has sent the US Dollar moderately lower against its main peers.
On Wednesday, US Producer Prices Index (PPI) showed an unexpected contraction in June to corroborate the disinflationary trend shown by Tuesday's consumer inflation data, which practically confirms that the Fed will keep its monetary policy unchanged at its July meeting.
The Japanese Yen bulls, however, remain subdued amid investors’ cautiousness about the war in Iran, which is pushing Oil prices higher, and growing doubts about the Japanese Finance Ministry’s plans to repatriate pension fund investments.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY is looking for direction
USD/JPY trades at 162.16, maintaining a bullish near-term bias intact, yet with momentum indicators showing a lack of a clear trend. The four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays slightly negative, hinting at a slowing bullish momentum rather than outright exhaustion.
The bottom of the triangle is at 161.90, with the next targets below here at the July 10 lows in the area of 161.30 and the bearish target of the triangle pattern, at 160.49 (July 3 low).
On the topside, the triangle top and July 13 and 15 highs, between 162.40 and 162.50, are closing the path to the 40-year high, at 162.84. Further up, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the early July pullback, at 163.50, emerges as a plausible target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.08% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.18% | -0.03% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.05% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.09% | -0.11% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.07% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- EUR/GBP gains ground to around 0.8475 in Thursday’s early European session.
- UK GDP grew by 0.1% MoM in May, as expected.
- Oil-driven inflation concerns could prompt the BoE to maintain a hawkish stance.
The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8475 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) following the UK economic data.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.1% decline reported in April. This figure came in line with the market expectations.
Meanwhile, the monthly Industrial Production fell by 0.5% in May, versus a 0.2% rise prior, below the consensus of -0.1%. Manufacturing Production increased by 0.1% MoM in May, compared to a rise of 0.5%, stronger than the forecast of -0.2%.
The mixed UK economic data have little to no impact on the British Pound. However, traders still ramp up their bets on rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) this year, given the expected impact on inflation from higher oil prices.
Money markets are fully pricing in a hike by the November policy meeting, with a second rate hike priced in by April 2027, according to Reuters.
On the Euro front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains strictly data-dependent. The official policy account explicitly noted that the June hike was neither a guaranteed sequence nor a guaranteed one-off move. On Wednesday, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said that the central bank prepared to implement monetary policy measures whenever necessary.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.1% decline reported in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday.
The market forecast was for a 0.1% rise in the same period.
Other data from the UK showed that monthly Industrial Production came in at -0.5% MoM in May while Manufacturing Production increased by 0.1% during the same period.
Market reaction to the UK data
The Pound Sterling remains weak following the UK data. At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is losing 0.06% on the day to trade at 1.3531.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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