Forex News
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.43 per troy ounce, up 2.26% from the $58.12 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.39% since the beginning of the year.
Unit measure | Silver Price Today in USD |
|---|---|
Troy Ounce | 59.43 |
1 Gram | 1.91 |
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.93 on Monday, down from 69.73 on Friday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that markets have repriced the risk of a July Fed hike higher after Oil-driven inflation worries, but still expect no move. A hawkish hold would keep the US Dollar (USD) supported by pushing tightening expectations further out, while a poorly explained pause could hurt Fed credibility, lift inflation breakevens and weigh on the Dollar over the coming months.
Hawkish hold would underpin Dollar
"The probability of a July Fed rate hike fell to just 10% following benign US inflation data but has since rebounded to 35% as higher oil prices reignited inflation concerns."
"In short, markets have shifted from viewing a July hike as a remote possibility to a meaningful risk."
"If the Fed remains on hold, as we expect, the market reaction will hinge on its communication."
"A hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55bp of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027. In this scenario, the USD should remain supported."
"However, a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function. That risks lifting long-end inflation breakevens, a development that would be negative for the USD."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver gains more than 2% and trades around $59.45 as renewed demand for precious metals supports prices.
- Hopes of de-escalation between the United States and Iran send Oil prices sharply lower, easing inflation concerns.
- Markets now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies on Monday and trades around $59.45 at the time of writing, up 2.27% on the day. The white metal benefits from a sharp decline in Oil prices following renewed hopes for de-escalation between the United States (US) and Iran, a backdrop that strengthens expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from major central banks.
Military tensions between the two countries have paused after US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said US President Donald Trump had decided to suspend military strikes to allow more time for diplomacy. According to Reuters, an Iranian official also stated that Tehran would halt its attacks as long as Washington does the same.
This development is weighing heavily on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by nearly 8% at the time of press. Lower energy prices help ease concerns over persistently high inflation, reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening and supporting non-yielding assets such as Silver.
At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar (USD) are providing additional support to the precious metal. Investors have scaled back expectations for further interest rate hikes as inflation risks linked to energy prices continue to fade.
Market attention now turns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely scrutinize the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further clues about the future path of monetary policy.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to keep policy unchanged despite energy-driven price pressures, as markets have already tightened financial conditions. He sees the United Kingdom's (UK) constrained fiscal space and potential tax-threshold relief as key for demand and gilt supply, judging current BoE tightening priced by markets as excessive but still supportive for British Pound (GBP) resilience.
BoE caution meets tight fiscal space
"The BoE is not expected to shift its policy stance this week despite renewed price pressures from energy. To paraphrase Governor Andrew Bailey’s views on transmission mechanisms, the market is already doing the tightening for them. Mortgage rates have already rebounded significantly due to the recent rise in swap rates, and even if tensions de-escalate, the reversal process is asymmetric and unlikely to be swift."
"In our view, the fiscal outlook will make a bigger difference to policy expectations. The new government has already launched several initiatives that reflect fiscal relief, with a major package due in early Q4. Reports point to raising tax thresholds as the main goal, helping offset the effects of fiscal drag in recent years."
"We believe current BoE pricing of around 42bp in tightening by year end looks excessive, but upside growth surprises can help with GBP resilience."
"The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with at most two dissents. Although headline inflation risk has picked up, the Monetary Policy Committee is even more minded to focus on softer inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey continues to stress that wage growth is also slowing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold kicks off the new week on a positive note as US-Iran diplomacy hopes undermine the US Dollar.
- Falling oil prices ease inflation fears and temper Fed rate hike bets, further benefiting the commodity.
- Traders seem hesitant as the market focus remains glued to this week’s crucial FOMC policy meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Monday and remains below the $4,100 mark as bulls seem hesitant ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting this week. Heading into the key central bank event, reviving hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war led to a steep fall in crude oil prices. This helps ease inflation fears and temper US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lending some support to the non-yielding bullion.
The US paused its bombing campaign against Iran late on Friday, following 13 consecutive nights of strikes. US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz said that while forces remained locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations "a little bit of room". In response, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran will halt its own attacks as long as the US does the same, fueling optimism about a lasting path to de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. This resulted in some unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium, which weighs heavily on the buck.
Moreover, the easing of hostilities dragged crude oil prices significantly lower and forced investors to trim their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the US central bank. The outlook leads to a modest pullback in US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor that drags the USD away from the vicinity of the monthly high, retested last week. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, market participants remain skeptical about the halt in attacks. Adding to this, traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on July 26 after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. This adds to concerns about significant disruptions to global oil supplies due to the restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices. This helps limit deeper USD losses and keeps a lid on further upside for Gold, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders heading into the key central bank event risk.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold might struggle to make it through short-term range amid mixed setup
The two-way price move since June 19 constitutes the formation of a rectangle on the daily chart. Against the backdrop of the recent breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase and keeps the longer-term downtrend in place.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators have improved, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just under the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning firmly positive. This, however, hints at a corrective rebound rather than a confirmed bullish reversal while price action is capped beneath the long-term average.
On the topside, the top boundary of the trading range near the $4,200 mark is the key resistance to beat. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65. Until that occurs, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 29, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that lower energy prices have eased pressure on Japanese policymakers and slowed USD/JPY’s climb below 164.00. Markets expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep rates unchanged but are focused on any hawkish signals on future hikes. Without clearer tightening guidance, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains vulnerable, especially if the Federal Reserve (Fed) surprises hawkishly this week.
Yen vulnerable without BoJ hawkishness
"The drop in energy prices at the start of this week has brought some much-needed relief for Japanese policymakers and helped to slow upward momentum for USD/JPY which has held just below the 164.00-level since late last week."
"Bloomberg has reported that inflation concerns in Japan are having a negative impact on Prime Minister Takaichi’s popularity."
"Overall, the latest [poll] readings are still relatively high but do indicate that recent developments have had a negative impact. The government is currently considering whether to deliver a promised sales tax cut on food to help ease inflation pressures and aims to finalize its policy on the issue by early August."
"The BoJ are expected to leave rates on hold after hiking at the last meeting in June, but market participants will be watching closely to see if they provide any hawkish signals over future hikes."
"Bloomberg reported last week that the BoJ was open to a faster pace of rate hikes than every six months while adding that yen weakness was increasing upside inflation risks."
"Without hawkish guidance, the yen is vulnerable to further weakness especially if the Fed delivers a hawkish policy surprise this week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- The Indian Rupee gains further, capitalizing on a correction in oil prices and the US Dollar.
- US President Donald Trump pauses attacks on Iran to allow time for diplomacy.
- Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy week. The USD/INR pair falls further to near 95.90 as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has weighed heavily on oil prices and has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 6.25% lower to near Rs. 8065.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to fulfill their energy needs, improves when oil prices fall sharply.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.25.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.38% | -0.27% | -0.44% | |
| EUR | 0.35% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.35% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.18% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.45% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.38% | -0.09% | -0.07% | |
| INR | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.44% | 0.09% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US holds strikes on Iran on exhaustion of target list
Two-week-long exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused over the weekend as Washington confirmed that further military aggression would be unnecessary, confirming that the target list has been exhausted.
According to Axios, Adm Bradley Cooper, the top US military commander in the region, had told Trump the US military campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness, The Guardian reported. Cooper added that there was little point in continuing the bombing campaign without a return to major combat operations.
In response, Iran also paused attacking US bases in its neighboring nations, but confirmed that its position remains "attack for attack".
Meanwhile, US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, also told Fox News on Sunday that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports. This has renewed hopes for diplomatic efforts between both nations.
Investors await key Fed policy
This week, the major trigger for global markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. So far this year, the Fed has not made any monetary policy adjustments.
Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook. Warsh is unlikely to deliver any remarks regarding the monetary policy guidance, as he clarified in its last press conference that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR slides to near 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.90 at press time. The pair extends its correction to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 95.98.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index slides to near 50.00, indicating that the momentum is not bullish anymore and a further correction could be on the horizon.
On the downside, the pair could fall towards 95.00 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA near 95.99. Looking up, the all-time high at around 97.10 will be the key resistance level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad sees above-target Australian inflation keeping Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike risks alive, with June and Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to show firm trimmed mean readings. However, Haddad judges risks skewed toward an extended pause given sub-potential growth and a cash rate near the top of neutral estimates, viewing this as a headwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Inflation data and RBA guidance
"Headline CPI is expected at 4.0% y/y for a second straight month while trimmed mean CPI is expected at 3.7% y/y vs. 3.6% in May."
"The monthly CPI is Australia’s primary measure of inflation, but the RBA continues to focus on measures of underlying inflation from the quarterly CPI. Trimmed mean CPI is seen rising to a two-year high at 3.7% y/y in Q2 vs. 3.5% in Q1, keeping RBA rate hike bets live."
"Speeches by RBA Governor Michele Bullock (Tuesday) and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter (Thursday) may provide some policy guidance ahead of the next RBA decision on August 11."
"RBA cash rate futures price-in 30% odds of a 25bps hike in August and fully price one to 4.60% by year end."
"In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle which is a headwind for AUD: (i) RBA projects real GDP growth to be below potential over the next two years; (ii) RBA cash rate at 4.35% currently sits near the top of the range of model-based central estimates of the nominal neutral rate."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that mediation efforts by Gulf countries towards the United States (US)-Iran diplomatic solution remain active, but Tehran is not having direct talks with Washington.
Remarks
Some Gulf countries have been involved in the US war on Iran.
Iran-Oman talks over management of the Hormuz Strait have been positive.
The situation in Hormuz has not changed; the strait is still closed.
Talks with Oman about the Strait of Hormuz to continue.
Iran has not asked for resumption of talks with the US, 'not in our DNA’.
Mediators transmit messages to us from the US. But we do not have talks with Washington currently.
Market reaction
A decent recovery move is seen in the US Dollar (USD) in the European trade, but is still trading down. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 0.19% lower at around 101.28.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.140 on lower Oil prices but argues the move looks optimistic without a clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Pesole stresses that elevated European gas prices are hurting the Euro’s terms of trade, while upcoming Eurozone data are unlikely to deliver enough domestic support to offset Dollar-safe-haven and Fed-related pressures.
Gas prices and geopolitics weigh on euro
"EUR/USD has bounced back above 1.140 as oil prices dropped sharply today. Still, that move looks somewhat optimistic given the absence of a clear de-escalation path. Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent back to $100/bbl and EUR/USD below 1.1380."
"Gas prices are another reason we remain cautious on EUR/USD unless tensions ease quickly. Even after today's decline, TTF is trading at €58/MWh, more than 30% above levels at the start of July and close to the March highs."
"So while Brent is nowhere near its peaks, gas is. Given its importance in eurozone energy imports, the euro's terms of trade – statistically the most important medium-term driver of EUR valuation – are also hovering near March lows and at levels comparable to 2023."
"Potential precautionary USD buying ahead of the FOMC may also weigh on the pair into Wednesday."
"On Friday, eurozone CPI is expected to rise above 3.0%, but with core inflation still near 2.5%, we do not think that will trigger aggressive hawkish repricing. Markets price 42bp from the European Central Bank by year-end, but that outlook should remain highly sensitive to ongoing oil volatility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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