Forex News

ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang expect China’s February CPI inflation to pick up to 1.0% year-on-year, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects, while the impact of higher Oil prices should appear later. They also project solid growth in exports and imports over the first two months, resulting in a larger trade surplus.

Lunar New Year to lift CPI

"China will release its CPI inflation data for February next Monday. We are expecting CPI to rise to 1.0% year-on-year thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year effect. The impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict likely won't be seen until the March data."

"China's trade data for the first two months of the year is also scheduled for publication on Tuesday. "

"The divergence of PMI data suggests that external demand likely remained resilient to start the year, and we are looking for 9.3% YoY growth of exports and 8.5% YoY growth of imports over the first two months of the year, resulting in a trade surplus of $188.1bn."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/CNH has traded higher as Iran-related geopolitical tensions support the Dollar. Beijing has been setting a stronger CNY fix, which has helped stabilise the Renminbi and partially offset broader Asian FX softness. However, persistent USD strength and weaker risk sentiment could force even stronger fixes to counter near-term depreciation pressures, with upside levels highlighted.

Geopolitics and fixing strategy guide pair

"USD/CNH traded higher overnight as geopolitical conflict in Iran showed little signs of de-escalation. The fixing pattern this week saw a slight pick-up in setting a stronger RMB fix, with 30d rolling average change in the USD/CNY fix rising to -33pips (vs. -27 pips a month ago). Continued trend in maintaining a strong fix can bring about relative stability in RMB (especially if expected fix-to-actual fix gap does not start to deviate), and that should help to partially mitigate against Asian FX softness."

"But if USD strength persists and risk sentiment deteriorates further, then it may require an even stronger CNY fix to offset near term depreciation pressure."

"USD/CNH was last at 6.9260 levels. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Risks remain skewed to the upside."

"Resistance at 6.9370 (50 DMA), 6.9520 and 6.9780 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Aug high to Feb low). Support at 6.8970 (21 DMA), 6.88 levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, through Associate Economist Jester Koh, judges that Singapore’s GDP exposure to the Middle East conflict is modest under a short-lived shock scenario. Exports to key regional economies are about 2% of total exports, and UOB keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.6%, while flagging potential secondary demand effects via weaker global consumption and investment.

Growth impact seen as contained for now

"We assess the direct impact on Singapore’s GDP growth from the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict to be limited at this juncture, assuming the conflict stays heightened only for a short period (within four weeks) and the associated oil price shock is transient (remaining below US$100/bbl and normalizing gradually thereafter)."

"Secondary effects on growth, though difficult to quantify, could emerge through the associated drag on consumption and investment activity in Singapore’s key trading partners."

"External demand may be dampened by weaker sentiment and supply‑chain disruptions, which in turn would weigh on Singapore’s exports. This poses a drag on Singapore’s growth, compounded by the economy’s high degree of openness, with a significant share of domestic value‑added (DVA) supported by foreign demand."

"In addition, spillover effects from higher utility, transport and input costs on both goods and services inflation could be meaningful. Using data from 2005–2025, our regression results suggest that a US$10/bbl increase in Brent crude oil prices from baseline could raise core inflation by around 30–40bps."

"On balance, this implies, ceteris paribus, a higher likelihood that MAS will tighten policy at the Apr 2026 MPS (our base case) by raising the S$NEER band slope by 50bps to 1.0% p.a., although there remains a possibility that policy normalisation could be delayed to the Jul 2026 MPS."

"We assess that the macro impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to be more prominent on inflation than on growth, at least in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)