Forex News
- USD/JPY hovers near 160.80, the highest level since July 2024 reached on Thursday.
- Japan's Minoru Kihara warned that the government is ready to respond appropriately to volatile currency moves at any time.
- US Dollar declined amid easing safe-haven demand following a preliminary US-Iran MoU to end the war.
USD/JPY inches lower after four days of gains, trading around 160.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair surged to 160.80 the previous day, marking its highest level since July 2024 and significantly heightening speculation that Japanese authorities could soon intervene to support the struggling Yen.
In response to the currency's rapid decline, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated during a Thursday press conference that the government remains "ready to respond appropriately to currency moves as needed at any time." Kihara emphasized that officials are closely monitoring market developments and comprehensively evaluating their economic impact.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair surrendered some gains as the US Dollar weakened due to fading risk aversion. This shift followed a BBC report confirming that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran.
However, the Greenback's downside may be limited, with potential to rebound against major peers as odds rise for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year. According to the Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections, half of the FOMC members still expect at least one rate hike in 2026. Despite recent economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, a resilient US labor market and persistent underlying inflation continue to fuel monetary tightening pressures.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- EUR/USD gains positive traction as the USD drifts lower in reaction to the US-Iran peace deal.
- The ECB’s rate hike signal supports the Euro, while hawkish Fed bets should limit USD losses.
- The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from its lowest level since late March, around the 1.1480-1.1475 region touched the previous day. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to a fresh daily high, around the 1.1525 area in the last hour.
The US-Iran deal, aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosts investors' confidence and prompts some USD profit-taking following Wednesday’s strong move up to a fresh high since late March. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish signal lends some support to the shared currency and the EUR/USD pair. However, rising bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December could limit USD losses and cap the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keep a bearish near-term tone. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 38. Momentum indicators together suggest that downside pressure persists even as the EUR/USD pair attempts to stabilize above the recent swing lows.
Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront a hurdle near the 1.1575-1.1580 horizontal support breakpoint ahead of the 1.1600 round figure. Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA at 1.1638 should act as a strong barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a more sustained recovery. On the downside, acceptance below the 1.1500 mark would expose the EUR/USD pair to further weakness as momentum remains skewed to the downside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- USD/CHF weakens to near 0.7985 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The Fed voted unanimously to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its June policy meeting.
- The Swiss National Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday.
The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 0.7985 during the early European session on Thursday. The United States (US) and Iran signed an interim agreement that would end the Iran war, weighing on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its interest rate decision later on Thursday.
US President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday electronically signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the agreement is taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both Washington and Tehran.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its June policy meeting while signaling the possibility of higher rates later this year as the central bank gauges the inflation effects of the Iran conflict.
Traders have now fully priced in a rate hike in the coming months as the US central bank focuses on price stability over employment. A hawkish tone from the Fed could support the Greenback in the near term.
The SNB is expected to keep its key policy rate at 0% at the June policy meeting on Thursday and for the rest of the year, according to all the economists who responded to a Reuters poll.
"With those opposing forces from FX and energy prices at play and Switzerland's low inflation starting point, we think inflation pressures weigh less on the SNB than on most central banks ... Our base case remains the zero‑interest‑rate policy stays in place until end-2027,” said Chiara Angeloni, Europe economist at Bank of America.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
- USD/INR falls as a surprise US-Iran peace agreement eased global safe-haven demand, weakening the US Dollar.
- The US Dollar could rebound amid increasing market expectations of additional Fed interest rate hikes later this year.
- Lower oil prices are expected to ease depreciation pressures on the Indian Rupee by lowering the country's import bill.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on easing safe-haven demand following the BBC report late Wednesday, suggesting that the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding designed to end the US-Israel war on Iran.
Fed rate hike odds in 2026
However, the USD/INR pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar could rebound on rising odds of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. The Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections showed half of FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year. Despite economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, resilient labor market data and persistent underlying inflation measures continue to drive tightening pressures.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. In his first meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, vowed to aggressively restore price stability.
Indian equities fall following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, amid signals that the central bank could still hike borrowing costs later this year. The prospect of higher-for-longer US rates typically sours the appeal of emerging markets like India, keeping investor risk appetite firmly in check.
WTI declines on easing supply risks
The Indian Rupee is expected to see relief from depreciation pressures as global crude oil prices extend their decline. This drop follows a landmark interim agreement between the United States and Iran, which halted their active military conflict and fully reopened the vital Strait of Hormuz, successfully calming global energy supply anxieties.
UK-India trade deal to start in July
The landmark free trade agreement between Britain and India will officially take effect next month on July 15. The rollout was locked in after India confirmed its concerns had been resolved regarding the UK’s upcoming steel tariff regime, which had previously threatened to delay the deal. Signed last year, the long-awaited economic pact unites the world’s fifth- and sixth-largest economies.
RBI rejects offshore settlement for sovereign bonds
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains opposed to enabling the direct settlement of local government bonds through offshore platforms like Euroclear, according to Reuters sources. Despite recent tax incentives designed to lure foreign capital, the central bank is holding its ground: it wants overseas investors to trade directly on its domestic NDS-OM electronic platform rather than using international clearing houses.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades near 94.50 below moving averages
USD/INR depreciates after registering modest gains the previous day, trading around 94.60 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the spot price remains within the descending triangle, indicating a consolidation phase.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 suggests weak momentum, reinforcing the risk of further downside as long as price remains suppressed beneath these moving averages.
The immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 94.30, while the initial resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 94.74, followed by the nine-day EMA at 94.89.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Indian Rupee.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.00% | -0.32% | -0.41% | -0.43% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.17% | -0.15% | -0.29% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.16% | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.13% | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.30% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.15% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.30% | -0.44% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.34% | -0.48% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | 0.32% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.30% | 0.34% | -0.14% | 0.23% | |
| NZD | 0.41% | 0.29% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 0.48% | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| INR | 0.43% | -0.03% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.13% | -0.23% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,161.69 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,985.20 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 153,515.30 per tola from INR 151,456.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
1 Gram | 13,161.69 |
10 Grams | 131,617.00 |
Tola | 153,515.30 |
Troy Ounce | 409,378.80 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- AUD/USD attracts fresh buyers on Thursday as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
- The hawkish RBA further benefits the Aussie, while Fed rate hike bets could limit USD losses.
- The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday, reversing part of the previous day's slide to sub-0.7000 levels, or the weekly low. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7040 region, up nearly 0.40% for the day, amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats from its highest level since late March amid the latest optimism over the US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish signal that further rate hikes are possible if inflation remains stubbornly elevated supports the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the AUD/USD pair. However, rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and cap the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, this week's repeated failures near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support breakpoint favor bearish traders. Moreover, the AUD/USD pair holds below the 50% retracement of the March-May upswing, suggesting that rallies are more likely to be sold into while spot prices remain capped beneath these overhead levels. This negative outlook is further reinforced by bearish momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 42, and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at waning upside momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50% retracement around 0.7054, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.7085 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7106, with a stronger barrier further up at the 23.6% level around 0.7171. On the downside, initial support is defined by the 61.8% Fibo. level at 0.7002, with deeper cushions at the 78.6% level around 0.6928 and the prior swing low near 0.6834, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the decline extends.
AUD/USD daily chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.36% | -0.44% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.18% | -0.16% | -0.29% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.15% | -0.17% | -0.28% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.06% | -0.32% | -0.44% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.06% | -0.36% | -0.49% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | 0.36% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.32% | 0.36% | -0.12% | 0.22% | |
| NZD | 0.44% | 0.29% | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.35% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.10% | 0.14% | -0.22% | -0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- Silver price advances to around $69.15 in Thursday’s Asian session.
- The white metal keeps a bearish vibe under the key 100-day SMA, RSI holding below the midline.
- The first upside barrier emerges at $70.00; the initial support level is seen at $66.81.
Silver price rises to near $69.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The white metal attracts some buyers following positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian both digitally signed the memorandum of understanding in English and Farsi aimed at ending the war with Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the US-Iran agreement is taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both sides. This development has lowered crude oil prices, easing energy-driven inflation concerns and boosting demand for precious metals.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave the interest rates unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday, while signaling the possibility of higher rates later this year. This, in turn, might cap the upside for silver, a non-yielding asset. It’s worth noting that Silver is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, XAG/USD stays capped beneath a dense confluence of resistance, with spot below the Bollinger middle band and well under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias tilted lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, hinting at subdued bullish momentum after the recent pullback rather than an oversold condition, which suggests rallies are more likely to face selling pressure while price holds under these overhead levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is placed at the $70.00 psychological level. The next hurdle is seen at the Bollinger SMA around $71.45, ahead of the 100-day SMA at about $77.62, with the Bollinger upper band near $79.78 acting as a wider cap if buyers attempt a deeper recovery.
On the downside, the first support level is located at June 17 low of $66.81. The next contention level emerges at the Bollinger lower band near $63.15, where a break would open the door to further weakness, while holding above this floor would instead favor continued range trading beneath the clustered daily resistance band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
- Gold regains positive traction following the previous day’s post-FOMC slump to the weekly trough.
- The optimism over a US-Iran peace deal prompts USD profit-taking and supports the precious metal.
- The Fed’s hawkish tilt lifts December rate hike bets, limiting USD losses and capping the commodity.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers on Thursday and climbs back above the $4,300 mark during the Asian session as the US-Iran peace deal prompts some US Dollar (USD) profit-taking. In fact, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending hostilities between the two countries and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, Trump said that the 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on Iran's nuclear program is not a hard deadline, further boosting investors' confidence. This, in turn, drags the USD away from its highest level since late March, touched in reaction to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt on Wednesday, and turns out to be a key factor supporting the commodity.
As widely expected, the US central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the end of the first meeting under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Adding to this, the Fed eliminated the language indicating a bias toward further easing, with the rate-setting committee sending a clear message that it supported higher rates. In fact, policymakers estimated the fed funds rate at 3.8% by the end of this year, up from 3.4% projected in March. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in a nearly 85% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in December. The outlook led to the overnight sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields and favors USD bulls, which, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the non-yielding Gold.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the precious metal's recent recovery move from the $4,025-$4,020 region, or the year-to-date low, touched last Thursday. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members might provide some impetus to the Greenback and the Gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold needs to surpass $4,350-$4,360 confluence to back the case for additional gains
The overnight failed attempt to find acceptance above the $4,350-$4,360 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June fall and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – warrants caution for the XAU/USD bulls. The subsequent slide, however, stalled near the 23.6% Fibo. level, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, signaling subdued momentum. In contrast, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned marginally positive, hinting at a tentative loss of bearish pressure rather than a clear bullish reversal.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the $4,350-$4,360 hurdle before positioning for further gains. The Gold might then climb to the 50.0% retracement near $4,461 and further towards higher barriers at $4,562, $4,705 and the recent peak around $4,887. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near $4,237, with a deeper floor around the prior swing low close to $4,036, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish cycle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- USD/IDR falls as the Indonesian Rupiah finds support ahead of Thursday's Bank Indonesia policy decision.
- Traders expect the BI to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.75%.
- US Dollar declines amid easing safe-haven demand following a preliminary US-Iran MoU to end the war.
USD/IDR inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 17,880 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair breaks lower as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) finds support ahead of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy meeting on Thursday.
Traders are actively pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to 5.75%, building on momentum from last week when BI delivered a surprise 25-basis-point increase. That unexpected move was aimed squarely at defending the Rupiah and taming accelerating inflationary pressures, as the country's annual inflation rate jumped to 3.08% in May from 2.42% in April, closing in on the upper limit of the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target range.
The USD/IDR pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) slips on easing safe-haven demand following the BBC report late Wednesday, indicating that the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding designed to end the US-Israel war on Iran. This decisive executive action follows the electronic signing of the initial framework by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf earlier in the week.
However, the US Dollar could rebound on rising odds of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. The Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections showed half of FOMC members expect at least one rate hike this year. Despite economic disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran, resilient labor market data and persistent underlying inflation measures continue to drive tightening pressures.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | IDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | 0.42% | 0.03% | 1.14% | -0.44% | 0.05% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | 0.27% | -0.11% | 0.97% | -0.71% | -0.06% | -2.04% | |
| GBP | -0.42% | -0.27% | -0.38% | 0.71% | -0.98% | -0.37% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.38% | 1.11% | -0.55% | 0.16% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -1.14% | -0.97% | -0.71% | -1.11% | -1.63% | -0.93% | -1.27% | |
| AUD | 0.44% | 0.71% | 0.98% | 0.55% | 1.63% | 0.63% | 1.27% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | 0.06% | 0.37% | -0.16% | 0.93% | -0.63% | -1.03% | |
| IDR | 0.00% | 2.04% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 1.27% | -1.27% | 1.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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