Forex News
- AUD/JPY pares its daily losses after Australia's April Trade Balance shifted to a 1,791M surplus from a prior deficit.
- The JPY gains ground as traders price in a potential Bank of Japan interest-rate hike later this month.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama emphasized that persistent energy market volatility requires Japan to remain prepared for "appropriate action."
AUD/JPY pares its daily losses, remaining in the negative territory and trading around 114.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The receives minor support as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains following the release of Australia’s Trade Balance data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that the Trade Balance shifted to a surplus of 1,791M month-over-month (MoM) in April, following a deficit of 1,024M in the previous reading (revised from $1,841M). The market consensus was for a surplus of 1,800M. Australia's Exports rose by 7.2% MoM in April from a fall of 2.5% seen in March (revised from -2.7%). Meanwhile, Imports increased by 0.8% MoM, compared to a previous rise of 12.2% (revised from 14.1%).
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains ground as traders continue to price in another interest-rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) later this month as policymakers grapple with rising costs and a stubbornly weak Yen, both of which have been aggravated by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda adopted a hawkish stance during a speech in Tokyo on Wednesday. He emphasized that the central bank must carefully weigh the balance of a rate hike if inflationary pressures begin to pose a greater threat than risks to overall economic growth.
Meanwhile, Tokyo remains highly vigilant regarding currency volatility. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined on Tuesday to comment on specific market movements or recent intervention data, but she warned that persistent instability in energy markets requires Japan to remain prepared for "appropriate action." Framing potential interventions as comprehensive economic management rather than a simple defense of the exchange rate, Katayama noted that Tokyo is actively monitoring the markets in close coordination with the United States.
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu Jun 04, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 1,791M
Consensus: -
Previous: -1,841M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australia's Trade Balance shifted to surplus of 1,791M MoM in April, followed a deficit of 1,024M in the previous reading (revised from $1,841M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The market consensus was for a surplus of 1,800M.
Further details reveal that Australia's Exports climbed by 7.2% MoM in April from a fall of 2.5% seen a month earlier (revised from -2.7%). Meanwhile, Imports increased by 0.8% MoM in April, compared to a rise of 12.2% seen in March (revised from 14.1%).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains modestly following the Australia’s Trade Balance report. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7135, gaining 0.08% on the day. The pair advances in positive territory, but remains close to its weekly low at 0.7130.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.16% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.19% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.14% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.24% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.05% | -0.16% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.24% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.07% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
What do Australia’s Trade Balance data mean for the Australian Dollar?
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
Even though the impact on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy is usually indirect, Australia’s Trade Balance can influence the RBA because it provides insight into the strength of the external sector, economic growth, and national income.
A narrowing trade surplus or unexpected trade deficit may signal weakening export demand or slower growth among key trading partners. This might lead markets to expect a more dovish stance from the Australian central bank. However, if risk sentiment improves, this might help limit the Aussie losses as capital flows toward the riskier assets.
A larger-than-expected trade surplus can signal strong export demand or resilient economy. This report could lead markets to expect that the RBA will hike interest rates or keep them elevated.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD keeps bullish vibe in near term
In the daily chart, AUD/USD holds above the rising 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term tone constructive despite the recent pullback from last week’s highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 sits just below the midline, hinting at fading upside momentum but not yet signaling an outright bearish shift while price action remains supported over the medium-term average.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the May 20 low of 0.7087, with a more important floor at the 100-day SMA near 0.7067, where buyers are likely to defend the broader uptrend. On the topside, a daily close well above the 0.7135 area would be needed to reassert bullish pressure and open the way for a retest of recent swing highs, with momentum confirmation from a recovery in the RSI back above the 50 line.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance (MoM)
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 07, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: -1,841M
Consensus: 4,250M
Previous: 5,686M
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.8203 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8184 and 6.7770 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
- EUR/USD recovers slightly from the weekly low as the Israel-Lebanon truce undermines the USD.
- The uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and renewed hostilities in the Gulf might cap optimism.
- Hawkish Fed expectations should help limit deeper USD losses and keep a lid on spot prices.
The EUR/USD pair shows some resilience below the 1.1600 round figure and attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, reversing a part of the previous day's slide to the weekly through. Any meaningful appreciation, however, still seems elusive amid the uncertainty over US-Iran talks and ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday.
Lebanon and Israel agreed to implement a ceasefire following negotiations in Washington, easing concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East. This keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, rising bets for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) later this month support the shared currency and spot prices.
Meanwhile, the optimism remains capped amid the lack of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed hostilities in the Gulf. The US military said on Tuesday that it had successfully repelled multiple Iranian missiles and drones launched at Kuwait and Bahrain, and had conducted self-defense strikes on Qeshm Island in response to the attacks. Meanwhile, Iranian armed forces targeted the US military bases in Bahrain in retaliation for the strike on Qeshm.
This keeps geopolitical risks in play, assisting Crude Oil prices to preserve the weekly gains registered over the past three days and reviving inflationary concerns. Investors seem convinced that major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), will stick to a hawkish stance in the wake of the war-driven rise in energy prices. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning a 50% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by the end of this year.
The outlook, along with Iran tensions, should continue to underpin the safe-haven USD, warranting some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the NFP report – for further cues about the Fed's policy path. This, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.07% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.15% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.11% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.11% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- USD/JPY falls as the US Dollar weakens after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, easing safe-haven demand.
- Trump told aides he would consider ending the Iran ceasefire if Tehran kills US troops.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama emphasized that persistent energy market volatility requires Japan to remain prepared for "appropriate action."
USD/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 159.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid easing risk aversion following the news that Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday agreed to renew a ceasefire. However, it would require a "complete cessation" of fire by Iran-backed Hezbollah. The agreement was announced in a joint statement after US-led talks in Washington.
Israel and Lebanon do not have formal diplomatic relations, though also agreed to establish a number of “pilot security zones" in which the Lebanese armed forces "will take exclusive control of the territory to the exclusion of all non-state actors."
However, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the US President Trump has told aides that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills US troops. Trump insisted that the week-long pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes. Moreover, Trump said in a New York Post interview that the blockade lasting until Labor Day is unlikely but possible, effectively extending the market's timeline for a Hormuz reopening.
SMBC Nikko strategist Makoto Noji warned on Tuesday that Japan faces a potential "historic Yen collapse" fueled by prolonged oil price volatility and loose fiscal policy. To combat this, Noji urged policymakers to deploy a coordinated, three-pronged strategy of interest rate hikes, a halt to fiscal expansion, and further market interventions, arguing that no single measure can solve the crisis alone.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to comment on specific currency movements or recent intervention data. However, she emphasized that persistent energy market volatility requires Japan to remain prepared for "appropriate action." Katayama framed potential interventions as broader economic management rather than simple exchange-rate defense, adding that Tokyo is closely coordinating and actively monitoring the markets alongside the United States.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
US President Trump has told aides that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills US troops, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. Trump insisted that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.
Trump said in a New York Post interview that the blockade lasting until Labor Day is unlikely but possible, effectively extending the market's timeline for a Hormuz reopening.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.70% on the day at $93.25.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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