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Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke argues that European gas storage will depend on higher LNG imports over winter, as current inflows of 8 bcm per month would see storages trend toward 0% by March. He considers 10 bcm realistic, but warns that delayed import recovery, strong Asian demand and missing Qatari LNG raise upside risks for European gas and electricity prices.

Import scenarios and power price risk

"If this level were maintained through spring, gas storage levels would reach just around 70% in October and head toward 0% by March."

"A middle ground would be 10 bcm, which would leave gas storage levels at about 16% shortly before the start of the replenishment phase."

"We consider 10 bcm to be quite realistic, while 12 bcm seems somewhat too high, as demand for US LNG from Asian countries is likely to remain high even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open on a sustained basis."

"This increases the pressure to import even more in the coming months, thereby raising the price risk."

"Ultimately, this would also further increase upward pressure on European electricity prices."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TD Securities strategists see Gold supported by doubts over the Federal Reserve (Fed) but with limited near-term upside. They argue that potential oil-driven inflation could keep Gold confined to a defined trading range into early 2027, before easing inflation, a weaker USD Dollar (USD) and lower carry costs drive prices materially higher later that year.

Fed path and oil risks steer gold

"While gold, silver, and PGMs have benefited significantly from the narrative that the Fed will not raise rates this year due to political worries, a willingness to look through an energy price shock, and a lackluster labor market, we see limited additional upside from current levels for now."

"With oil supply still at risk due to ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf, energy prices could still rise enough to alter front-end rate expectations this year."

"The bar for another rate hike remains low should oil prices spike again and inflation concerns re-emerge."

"Such a development would likely force gold traders to reprice policy expectations to reflect higher Fed funds rates this year and next."

"The risk of higher rates over this period should keep gold trading in a $4,200-4,500/oz range into early 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• NZD/USD retreats to 0.5880 after rejection at the 0.5925 area on Monday.
• The risk-sensitive Kiwi gives away gains as fears of a re-escalation of Iran's conflict grow.
• The near-term bias remains positive while above the 200-day SMA, at 0.5830.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by a moderate risk-averse sentiment as tensions in the Middle East grow. The NZD/USD pair has reversed Monday’s gains and pulled back to the 0.5880 area ahead of the US session opening, after rejection at 0.5926.

Risk appetite waned on Tuesday as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired without advances in the peace process. Washington and Tehran have ramped up their threats, and the key Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, buoying Oil prices and adding pressure on the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.5830

NZD/USD trades at 0.5879, holding a mildly bullish bias while above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5834, yet with momentum indicators hinting at waning upside pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below 60 and trends towards the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has ticked below the zero line, suggesting that bulls are losing conviction.

Immediate support is seen at the ascending trendline from late June lows, now around 0.5860, although the key support level is the 200-day SMA at 0.5834. A break below that level would confirm a deeper correction, aiming for the late July lows just above 0.5760.

On the topside, bulls would need a clear break of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of June's downtrend at 0.5916 to curb bears' hopes and shift the focus towards the six-month highs in the 0.600 area (May 7, 29 highs).

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• Silver loses more than 1% on Tuesday and trades around $65.00, while remaining within its recent consolidation phase.
• Fading expectations of a US interest rate hike support the white metal, but surging energy prices fuel inflation concerns.
• Investors now await the Fed Minutes on Wednesday for fresh clues about the interest-rate outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Tuesday and trades around $65.00 at the time of writing, down 1.20% on the day. The white metal nevertheless remains trapped within the consolidation range that has dominated trading for about a week, as opposing forces prevent a clear direction from emerging.

The monetary policy outlook in the United States (US) remains one of the main drivers of Silver prices. Recent weaker-than-expected US economic data have prompted investors to scale back expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting.

Weakness in the US labor market is contributing to this shift in expectations. The latest July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the downside, while recent inflation and consumer spending data have also reduced pressure for further monetary tightening.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 47% a month ago. Reduced expectations of higher interest rates tend to support Silver, as lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, this support is being offset by the sharp rise in energy prices amid persistent tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The failure to renew the ceasefire agreement and uncertainty surrounding the naval blockade of Iranian ports are fueling concerns over global energy supplies.

Higher Oil prices could therefore reignite inflationary pressures worldwide. Energy-driven inflation could encourage major central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, or even consider further rate hikes, which would represent a headwind for non-yielding precious metals such as Silver.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions provide some support to the white metal through demand for safe-haven assets. Uncertainty surrounding relations between Washington and Tehran therefore leaves Silver caught between inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices and defensive flows driven by geopolitical tensions.

Investors now turn their attention to the Minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, due on Wednesday. The document could provide further insight into how Fed officials assess the balance of risks and their willingness to continue tightening monetary policy following recent signs of a slowdown in the US economy.

Against this backdrop, Silver could remain sensitive to shifts in US interest-rate expectations. A less restrictive tone in the Minutes could weigh on Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD), potentially supporting the white metal, while persistent inflation concerns could continue to limit its rebound potential.

XAG/USD technical analysis

In the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.00, retaining a bearish near-term tone as price has slipped below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $65.26 while still holding above the 200-hour SMA at $64.47. This positioning suggests the latest pullback is pressuring the short-term trend, with the longer-term average offering interim cushioning. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.38 stays in mildly bearish territory, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-hour SMA around $64.47, followed by a horizontal level near $64.20, before deeper floors at $63.51 and $63.00. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-hour SMA at $65.26; a sustained recovery above this barrier would open the way toward the next notable cap at $66.80.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Geoff Yu at BNY notes Brent crude briefly rose above $91.85 per barrel, its highest in over three weeks, as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. President Trump’s refusal to revive the U.S.–Iran truce and ongoing shipping disruptions leave Oil exposed to renewed escalation and prolonged supply concerns, supporting Brent, WTI and Middle Eastern benchmarks.

Strait of Hormuz standoff sustains risk

"Brent crude rose as much as 1.1% to $91.85/bbl on Tuesday, its highest level in more than three weeks, as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. President Trump said he will not seek to revive the expired U.S.–Iran truce, leaving the conflict and control of the vital shipping route unresolved. Washington is demanding unrestricted passage through the strait, while Iran says traffic should be managed jointly with Oman."

"Shipping activity remains heavily disrupted and fresh attacks near the strait have reinforced supply concerns. Trump said U.S. leverage over Iran remains substantial and claimed back channels are open, though Tehran disputed this. The unresolved standoff keeps oil vulnerable to renewed escalation and prolonged disruption."

"Persistent Middle East tensions are keeping crude elevated, adding another supply-driven inflation risk to already stretched long-end markets."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed Al-Ansari, said the mediators are waiting for Oman and Iran to reach a bilateral agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, before returning to broader United States (US)-Iran talks.

Additional remarks

Invitation is still open for Iranian delegation to visit on pilots issue, Iran has not responded.

Iran and Qatar are in direct contact on the matter of Iranian pilots.

Iranian request for ICRC involvement in Iranian pilots issue is a "media ploy".

Agreement over the Hormuz would make it much easier to resume the US-Iran talks.

Iran-Oman discussions have become a key step toward restarting the wider diplomatic process. 

Market reaction

There has been no immediate reaction is seen in oil prices following remarks from Oman regarding Iran-Oman talks. At press time, the WTI Oil price holds onto Monday's gains near $84.00.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses how rising global bond yields and mounting concerns over United States (US) fiscal discipline are challenging the traditional safe haven role of US Treasuries and the US Dollar (USD). Foley highlights changing Treasury ownership, higher term premia and gradual de-dollarisation as medium-term risks to USD support.

Treasury privilege and Dollar safe haven

"Bond yields across the world are displaying increasing unease, with the US 30 yr treasury bond among them. Last week demand for both the US 10 year note and 30-year bond auctions was decent, but in order to attract buyers, yields rose to multi-year levels. This morning, the US 30 yr yield has surged further to the highest level since 2007, with various other G10 bond yields also making multi-year highs."

"If the pressure on global bonds continues, it could be a test of its safe haven status. Traditionally, in times of elevated uncertainty both the treasuries and the USD gain. However, as was demonstrated last April after US President Trump’s tariff announcements, the erosion of the US’s exorbitant privilege could over time put both assets on a different footing."

"The US, however, has a significant budget deficit and no clear plan as to how to address it. Moreover, the ownership of treasuries has changed, with a higher proportion of paper now in the hands of hedge funds who can be more sensitive to price. The result may suggest that the treasury market could be less protected by ‘privilege’ going forward."

"We have frequently argued that the USD has its own set of fundamentals stemming from its dominance in the global payments system which should afford it a safe haven bid. That said, a more vulnerable treasury market will not be good news for the USD."

"That said, de-dollarisation may slowly erode the USD’s dominance in coming decades. This process would likely accelerate if the treasury market’s safe haven status becomes less anchored."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

• The Indian Rupee hits a fresh three-week low near 95.85 against the US Dollar.
• US-Iran ceasefire expiration has boosted oil prices.
• Investors shift their focus to the FOMC minutes.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades with caution against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR is close to its fresh three-week high of 95.85 despite potential Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention.

According to a Reuters report, the RBI likely intervened in the ‌foreign exchange market for an eighth consecutive ​session on Tuesday, ​four traders told Reuters, as ⁠elevated oil prices ​kept up pressure on ​the South Asian currency. Traders also said that state-run banks were spotted offering ​dollars, ⁠most likely on behalf of ​the RBI.

Markets see downside risks to INR

Financial markets believe that the early closure of the zero-swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits by a month, and higher oil prices will remain major headwinds for the Indian Rupee.

Strategists at OCBC note that the Indian Rupee “softened to a two-week low, with USD/INR closing around 95.60, as higher oil prices and the early closure of RBI’s FCNR(B) swap window weighed on sentiment.” They highlight that “the FCNR(B) window will now close on 31 Aug, one month earlier than planned, after the broader FX-inflow measures drew nearly USD57bn, including more than USD52bn via non-resident deposits.”

There is another school of thought that believes the early FCNR closure signifies that the RBI has raised sufficient foreign-currency inflows and now has greater room to support the rupee without continuing to incentivise additional dollar mobilisation, Business Standard reported.

OCBC views “importer USD demand and oil" to remain the key drags, though potential RBI-linked USD sell-flows and a broadly softer USD should help limit disorderly moves in the currency.

Oil prices rally as US-Iran ceasefire expires

In the early session on Tuesday, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 1.1% higher to near Rs. 8,150, the highest level seen in two weeks.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.

Energy prices have rallied further as United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is not interested in renewing the expiring agreement with Iran, according to a Bloomberg report. This has prompted fears that Iran and the US could restart military attacks against each other, a scenario that could escalate concerns regarding a prolonged energy supply disruption. Trump added that the US still has leverage over Iran, citing the US naval blockade on Iranian seaports.

US FOMC minutes awaited

Financial markets keenly await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the July policy meeting on Wednesday to get fresh cues regarding US inflation and the economic outlook.

Hints regarding the US interest rate outlook are unlikely as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh remained committed to “no forward guidance” on policy rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have scaled back the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike at the September meeting.

USD/INR Technical Analysis

USD/INR trades at around 95.68, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 95.0046, keeping the near-term bias moderately bullish as price consolidates near recent highs.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits just above neutral, hinting at steady but not overstretched upside pressure.

On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 95.00 is a strong demand area. Looking up, the pair needs a decisive break above 96.00 to revisit the all-time high near 97.10.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

• USD/JPY rises to near 159.70 as the Japanese Yen faces pressure.
• Japan’s Q2 GDP growth remains moderate at 0.3%, missing 0.5% estimates.
• Investors await FOMC minutes, which will be released on Wednesday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms its major currency peers on Tuesday, with USD/JPY trading 0.16% higher at around 159.70 during the European trading session. The Japanese currency is under pressure as financial markets doubt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hold its hawkish policy stance amid growing economic concerns.

Economists at Societe Generale note that Japan’s latest GDP release undershot expectations, with “headline growth missed consensus, with consumption and capex—the two drivers we had expected to support growth—both disappointing.” They add that the inflation backdrop offers some support to tightening prospects, as “the higher GDP deflator should support near-term BoJ hike expectations,” but caution that “if weakness in consumption and capex continues, it would raise concerns over a faster and higher hiking path.”

On Monday, the Japanese Cabinet Office reported that the economy grew at a quarterly pace of 0.3% in the second quarter this year, slower than estimates and the prior release of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, the economy expanded at a moderate pace of 1.1% against the previous reading of 1.8%.

Within that, Societe Generale highlights the services sector as a key risk marker for policy. They warn that “continued services weakness would flash a yellow light for the BoJ,” stressing that “this is an important component to watch, as sustained weakness in services consumption would raise a warning flag for the BoJ’s faster and higher rate-hike path.”

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally higher ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.

In the policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, and remained committed to “no forward guidance” on interest rates.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY trades at 159.70, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 159.89 and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 160.67. The pair is hovering just above the 50% retracement at 159.64, suggesting a fragile consolidation after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.60 points to neutral momentum that neither strongly favors a rebound nor an extension of selling pressure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 159.89, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 160.67; a sustained break above these levels would ease downside pressure and open the way toward the 78.6% retracement at 162.14 and the recent cycle high near the 100% retracement at 164.01. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50% retracement at 159.64, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 158.61 and the 23.6% retracement at 157.33, where buyers would be expected to emerge to defend the broader uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that LME Copper has pushed above $14,000/t, approaching record highs as nearby market conditions tighten. They point to surging tom-next and cash/3m spreads, reduced LME inventories due to US-bound shipments and Chinese buying, and expect near-term supply tightness to keep Copper supported if demand from electrification and infrastructure stays resilient.

Spreads and inventories signal tightness

"In base metals, copper prices pushed higher, with three-month LME copper trading above $14,000/t and approaching the record highs reached earlier this year."

"The rally continues to be driven by tightening nearby market conditions. The LME copper tom-next spread surged to a premium of $75/t yesterday, marking the widest spread since January, as a growing supply squeeze intensified ahead of potential import tariffs. Meanwhile, the cash/3m copper spread traded at a premium of $545/t yesterday, highlighting tightness in spot supplies."

"Ongoing shipments to the US ahead of a potential refined copper import tariff, combined with Chinese buying, have reduced available inventories in the LME warehouse network and tightened prompt supply. While LME stocks saw a modest increase recently, inventories remain near multi-month lows and physical market indicators continue to point to limited metal availability."

"Near-term supply tightness is likely to keep the market well supported, particularly if demand linked to electrification, data centre expansion and grid investment remains resilient."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)