Forex News
- IEA members support accelerating the release of Oil stocks pledged under the collective action agreed in March.
- Around 100 million barrels could still reach the market if all pledged, but unreleased stocks are fully deployed.
- US gasoline inventories are tightening in key regions, while domestic crude production reaches another record high.
Governments belonging to the International Energy Agency (IEA) support accelerating the release of Oil stocks announced under the collective action agreed in March, according to a statement from the organization cited by Reuters on Wednesday.
The IEA says that a full release of all stocks pledged in March but not yet deployed would bring approximately 100 million additional barrels to the market. Members support completing these releases as soon as possible.
IEA members also back prioritizing the release of diesel stocks. The organization says its members still hold the equivalent of around 1.1 billion barrels in reserves, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. IEA members agree to continue assessing the situation and will review it again at the organization's next scheduled Governing Board meeting next week.
Meanwhile, the latest United States (US) inventory data point to tight conditions in some parts of the fuel market. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Wednesday that gasoline stocks in the US Midwest fell to a record low in the latest week, while inventories on the US Gulf Coast declined to their lowest level since September 2017.
The crude Oil supply picture appears more comfortable. US crude Oil production rose to a record high for the second consecutive week, according to the EIA. US crude imports from Nigeria also climbed to their highest level since June 2025.
Market reaction
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil shows little reaction to the announcements, with crude Oil down 0.30% on Wednesday to trade around $88.95 at the time of writing.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Commerzbank Research highlights Vietnam’s Q3 GDP growth at 10.0% year-on-year, the strongest since the pandemic, driven by investment and industry. Achieving the government’s 10% full-year target would require an unusually strong Q4. September CPI rose to 5.1%, above the 4.5% target on average, with elevated Oil prices and rapid credit growth constraining SBV’s room for additional monetary support.
Growth-led but inflation constraints
"Q3 GDP beat expectations, rising 10.0% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 8.7%) vs 8.8% in Q2, which was revised up from 8.4% initially. This marked the strongest growth since the pandemic, bringing year-to-date expansion to 8.9%. This implies that Q4 has to expand by 12.5% to achieve the government’s full-year target of 10%. While growth momentum should remain strong in Q4, achieving the target would require an unusually large further acceleration."
"Nguyen Thu Oanh, the head of the National Statistics Office, stated that “as capital flows into production, investment and consumption, its impact could become more evident in the final months of the year”."
"The strong growth was broad-based but remained heavily driven by investment and industry. It reflects the continued capacity expansion amid the diversification away from Chinese supply chains. Industry and construction grew 12.5% yoy in Q3, while services expanded 9.5%. Manufacturing rose 11.4% yoy vs 10.8% in Q2, contributing 2.8%-points to headline growth. Construction jumped 12.2% vs 8.9% in Q2 due to resilient foreign investment interest."
"Overall, the robust Q3 growth has been largely investment led. Growth momentum should continue in Q4, but this could raise demand-side price pressures. Furthermore, upside risks to inflation are elevated due to higher global oil prices amid the conflict in the Middle East."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- EUR/USD remains under heavy selling pressure near a 17-month low.
- France’s public-finance concerns keep the Euro vulnerable.
- Markets await the FOMC minutes for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy outlook.
EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday as the Euro (EUR) remains under broad selling pressure, while the US Dollar (USD) strengthens alongside surging US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1195, down 0.57% on the day, hovering near its lowest level in 17 months.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.30, at levels last seen in April 2025. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbs to 5.365%, its highest level since 2002, before easing toward 5.31%.
Higher Oil prices, concerns over rising government debt and a resilient US growth outlook are contributing to the increase in borrowing costs. The rise in Treasury yields supports demand for US Dollar-denominated assets, while elevated energy prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside and strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive policy stance.
Markets now await the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting, due at 18:00 GMT. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last month, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. However, the latest employment and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures came in softer than expected, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates again at its October 27-28 meeting.
On the Eurozone side, concerns over France’s public finances remain a major drag on the shared currency. The uncertainty has pushed French borrowing costs higher and widened bond spreads.
Strategists at ABN Amro highlight that the Euro “tends to weaken when government bond yields in a major Eurozone country, or in several countries, rise sharply because of political and/or fiscal concerns.” In such episodes, “there was some fear of contagion, and this impacts the currency as well.” ABN Amro argues that “periods of fiscal and political uncertainty in the Eurozone often coincide with speculators holding net short Euro positions and a lower EUR/USD,” pointing to the “recent relationship between the ten-year French-German government bond spread and the Euro” as a clear illustration of how widening spreads and political risk have been feeding into currency weakness.
Turmoil in Eurozone bond markets could limit the scope for aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets nevertheless continue to price in additional rate increases as elevated energy prices keep inflation risks firmly in focus, even as policymakers maintain a cautious tone.
ECB policymaker Álvaro Santos Pereira said headline and core inflation remain “far below” the levels seen during the 2022 energy shock, while other goods prices show no signs of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.59% | 0.43% | -0.02% | 0.28% | 0.30% | 0.46% | 0.09% | |
| EUR | -0.59% | -0.16% | -0.60% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.12% | -0.50% | |
| GBP | -0.43% | 0.16% | -0.46% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.07% | -0.33% | |
| JPY | 0.02% | 0.60% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.46% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | 0.31% | 0.15% | -0.29% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | -0.30% | 0.29% | 0.12% | -0.32% | -0.02% | 0.16% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | 0.12% | -0.07% | -0.46% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.35% | |
| CHF | -0.09% | 0.50% | 0.33% | -0.11% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- US 10-year yield jumps above 5.31%, extending its summer surge.
- US 30-year yield reaches 5.724% as investors demand higher premiums.
- December Fed hike odds hold near 85% despite October pause bets.
US Treasury yields soar on Wednesday, with the 10- and 30-year yields reaching 24-year highs of 5.35% and 5.724%, respectively, suggesting that investors are demanding a higher premium on US debt amid inflation and fiscal policy concerns.
Fiscal strains and inflation fears drive a sharp repricing of US debt risk
The US 10-year Treasury yield rises more than three basis points to 5.31% at the time of writing, boosting the Greenback’s appeal, as reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gains over 0.47%.
The DXY, which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is up at 102.32, still shy of testing the year-to-date (YTD) high of 102.53. In the currency market, the Dollar is the strongest, followed by the safe-haven Yen and Swiss Franc, while the Euro is the weakest and plunges amid France’s fiscal concerns.
Investors' eyes are on the release of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Worth noting, a 10-year bond auction would be scrutinized as the US Treasury plans to sell $39 billion of 10-year notes.
The yield on the US 10-year T-note has risen by over 60 basis points since the end of July, when hostilities in the Middle East resumed, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up around 20% at that time.
So far, money markets have priced in that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at the October meeting. The odds of a rate hike are slim at 18%, but the odds of a December meeting remain at 85%, according to Prime Terminal.
US 10-year Treasury note yield chart – Monthly
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights Switzerland’s strong current account and budget positions, credible central bank and governance, and high liquidity as underpinning the Swiss Franc’s safe haven status. Despite low inflation and a zero Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy rate raising questions about Swiss Franc (CHF) as a funding currency, the Foley stresses safe haven demand linked to Eurozone fiscal jitters and recent CHF outperformance.
Franc caught between haven and carry
"This, however, would at times be in conflict with the CHF’s established safe haven character."
"Over the past 5 days the CHF has been the second best performing G10 currency after the NOK. This performance provides some resolution to the debate over whether the CHF is a safe haven or a funding currency."
"The CHF is a long-established safe haven currency. Switzerland’s textbook credentials for a safe haven are strong."
"Despite Switzerland’s safe haven credentials, the country’s inflation is relatively low, and the SNB’s main policy rate is at zero."
"While there has been some talk in the market that the SNB could announce a rate hike at its next policy meeting in December, the consensus currently views this as highly unlikely given the fiscal jitters in the Eurozone and its impact on safe haven demand for the CHF."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note heavy CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) selling across Precious Metals, with Gold under pressure from surging real rates and a stronger US Dollar (USD). However, they highlight ongoing ETF inflows and sustained central bank purchases, particularly by the PBoC, as key supports. The authors expect persistent demand driven by geopolitical and macro concerns to underpin a new Gold bull run into 2027.
CTAs sell but structural bids support
"Precious metals come under heavy selling pressure, with CTAs selling gold, silver and platinum. However, we expect a strong dip buying impulse for gold in particular as longer-term drivers and flows remain supportive."
"Expecting strong dip buying in gold. The yellow metal is on the back foot again this morning amid surging real rates and a stronger dollar, but on the flip side ETF accumulation continues and the PBoC reported a 23rd consecutive month of central bank buying, with another 23 tonnes in September."
"A continued bid from discretionary traders, ETFs, and central banks all combine to provide a strong floor for gold."
"Given the drivers of these flows range from geopolitical risk, fiscal concern, dollar debasement, de-dollarization and stagflation concerns, we expect the appetite to be more persistent and ultimately hold firm in the face of surging real rates."
"We continue to see the stage being set for gold to disconnect from real rates further and begin a new bull run into 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- AUD/USD falls 0.44% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak.
- The US Dollar benefits from elevated Treasury yields and renewed caution across financial markets.
- Fading expectations of further rate hikes in Australia also weigh on the pair ahead of the Fed Minutes.
AUD/USD falls 0.44% on Wednesday and trades around 0.6950 at the time of writing, snapping a three-day winning streak. The Australian Dollar (AUD) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) as elevated US Treasury yields support the Greenback, while investors await the Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
The US Dollar benefits from higher US Treasury yields amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 5.33%, close to its highest levels since 2002, reinforcing the relative appeal of the Greenback.
Investors now turn their attention to the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), due later on Wednesday. The document could provide fresh clues about the interest-rate outlook after the central bank delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike at its September meeting.
Recent US economic data, however, have reduced expectations of additional monetary tightening in the near term. Moderating inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and signs of weakness in the labor market have tempered expectations of another rate hike at the October meeting.
On the Australian side, fading expectations of additional rate hikes also contribute to the decline in AUD/USD. Money markets now see around a 24% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates again at its November meeting following inflation data that came in line with expectations, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker.
Investors have also interpreted recent comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock as less hawkish. The prospect of a prolonged pause by the Australian central bank, combined with renewed support for the US Dollar, keeps AUD/USD under pressure ahead of the Fed Minutes.
AUD/USD technical analysis
In the one-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6953, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6957 and the 200-period SMA at 0.6975. The latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading around 34 remains below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than an immediate recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.6955, just above spot, with further hurdles at the 100-period SMA near 0.6957 and the 200-period SMA at 0.6975 before the horizontal barriers at 0.6980 and 0.7005. On the downside, support is seen at 0.6907, ahead of a more substantial floor at 0.6883, where sellers could pause if the pair extends its slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is stronger against major currencies, with the Euro (EUR) lagging as French and Italian bonds lead a renewed global bond sell-off. Persistently high energy prices, highlighted by IMF commentary, are seen skewing risks for inflation, policy rates and bond yields higher, supporting USD and energy exporters’ currencies over energy importers’ currencies.
High energy costs bolster USD outlook
"USD is up against all major currencies. EUR is underperforming as French and Italian bonds lead the renewed sell-off in global bonds."
"The September 15-16 FOMC meeting minutes (7:00pm London, 2:00pm New York) are likely to look somewhat dated after recent calls for patience from key Fed officials (Williams, Jefferson, and Bowman). Recall, the FOMC’s September hike came with a clear hawkish tilt and unanimous backing."
"Bottom line, persistently high energy prices keep risks to inflation, policy rates, and benchmark bond yields skewed to the upside, while favoring energy exporters’ currencies and USD over energy importer’s currencies. US growth outperformance and strong foreign appetite for US securities give USD an added boost."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Gold falls nearly 1.60% as the US Dollar and US Treasury yields resume their advance.
- Traders await the FOMC Minutes for fresh clues on the likelihood of another rate hike before year-end.
- XAU/USD drifts toward $4,100 support while holding below its key daily SMAs.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its decline on Wednesday, falling nearly 1.60% as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields resume their advance following a modest pullback the previous day. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,098 after touching an intraday low of $4,066, with markets awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September monetary policy meeting, due at 18:00 GMT.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 102.36, holding near levels last seen in April 2025. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbs to 5.365%, its highest level since 2002, before easing toward 5.31%.
Oil-driven inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, concerns over rising government debt and fiscal deficits, and a resilient US growth outlook are all contributing to the increase in borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold while strengthening demand for the US Dollar, making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Despite Wednesday’s decline, the yellow metal remains trapped in a consolidation range that has held for most of the past week. Traders are reassessing the Fed’s monetary policy path after recent US employment figures and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data came in softer than expected.
Markets widely expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting following a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in September. However, persistent inflation risks, partly driven by elevated energy prices, keep the possibility of another increase in December on the table.
Against this backdrop, traders will closely examine the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for fresh guidance on the likelihood of additional tightening.
A hawkish Fed outlook has weighed heavily on Gold since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, leaving the metal more than 25% below January’s all-time high near $5,600. Nevertheless, longer-term demand continues to provide underlying support.
Central bank gold buying streak extends as China leads August demand
Analysts at ING highlight that official sector appetite for bullion remains robust, pointing to World Gold Council (WGC) data showing that "central banks remained net buyers in August, adding 39 tonnes and bringing year-to-date purchases to 170 tonnes."
ING notes that China once again dominated activity, with the PBoC "leading purchases with 20 tonnes, extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months," while smaller but notable additions came from other emerging European and Central Asian buyers, as "Poland and Uzbekistan each added 8 tonnes to their reserves." This steady accumulation underscores the ongoing role of gold in central bank reserve diversification.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates with bearish bias below key SMAs
On the daily chart, XAU/USD drifts toward the lower end of its $4,100-$4,200 consolidation range. The metal remains well below the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,267 and $4,530, respectively, keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside.
Momentum indicators remain bearish but point to limited selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 38 without reaching oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, with the histogram printing fading red bars.
On the downside, the $4,100 psychological mark acts as immediate support. A sustained break below this level could drag Gold toward the year-to-date lows within the $4,000-$3,950 zone.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $4,200, followed by the 100-day SMA near $4,267. A stronger recovery could bring the $4,400 horizontal barrier into focus, while the 200-day SMA near $4,530 remains a major obstacle for buyers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/CAD around 1.4227 with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming most G10 peers. CAD retains much of Tuesday’s 0.4% gain, helped by a stronger August trade balance. Domestic political risk around Alberta’s October 19 referendum keeps CAD vulnerable, while fair value for USDCAD is estimated near 1.4169 and key levels cap upside.
CAD steady but sentiment-sensitive
"The CAD is steady, trading flat vs. the USD while outperforming most of the G10 currencies and gaining on the crosses in an environment of renewed and broad-based USD strength."
"Domestic political risk is elevated into the Alberta referendum vote on October 19, leaving the CAD vulnerable to swings in sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, Tuesday’s trade data offered a solid upside surprise in the trade balance for August – suggesting no material hit from the initial trade policy uncertainty brought about by the deterioration in the US/Canada relationship."
"Bullish/neutral – Tuesday’s large bear candle followed a series of ‘shooting stars’ that are typically associated with bearish reversals. The RSI is still overbought but has returned to the 70 threshold and adds to the risk of a shift in the recent trend. We continue to see resistance in the 1.4250/1.4280 range and see minor support around 1.4100 with material support at the psychologically important 1.40 level."
"Our FV estimate for USD/CAD is currently at 1.4169."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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