Forex News
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Wednesday that the administration is closely tracking market moves with high sense of urgency. Kihara added, “Markets move on various factors.”
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- The Indian Rupee falls back against the US Dollar after a positive opening.
- Democrats win majority in both US Houses.
- ING doesn’t see a structural weakness in the US Dollar due to Democrats' victory.
The Indian Rupee (INR) retreats after a positive opening against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday even as Democrats have registered victory in United States (US) midterm elections.
As of writing, the USD/INR pair is slightly higher to near 94.80 despite the outcome of US elections weighing on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.45% lower to near 101.42.
Democrats take control of both Houses
According to Decison Desk HQ, Democrats have won majority seats in both the House of Senate, and the House of Representatives. The scenario of Democrats winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate is expected to have a significant impact on the US Dollar.
ING warned earlier that “fears of tougher regulation could weigh on Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks (we’ve recently seen how that can hit the greenback), while markets could price in greater risks of decision-making gridlock around issues such as government funding and the debt ceiling.”
However, ING ruled out fears of a structural directional shift in the Dollar, explaining that the greenback “continues to respond predominantly to the Fed story, which shouldn’t face an immediate and direct impact from the midterm result”.
Key US economic releases
This week, investors will pay close attention to key US economic releases, notably Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be released on Friday. The NFP data will likely influence Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations significantly.
Ahead of the official US employment data release, financial markets will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for October, which will be published later in the day at 13:15 GMT. The data is expected to show that the private sector created 69K fresh jobs lower than 90K in September.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR rebounds to near 94.80
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.7405, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.1559. The pair has retreated from recent highs and remains capped by this dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 suggests lingering downside pressure, though not yet in oversold territory.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA near 95.16, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and allow for a recovery phase. With no clear structural supports indicated by the current dataset, traders may look to the recent swing lows and psychological handles below the market as potential demand areas, while the prevailing configuration continues to favor sellers as long as price trades under the 20-day EMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
ISM Services PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Wed Nov 04, 2026 15:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 54.8
Previous: 54.9
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reveals the current conditions in the US service sector, which has historically been a large GDP contributor. A print above 50 shows expansion in the service sector’s economic activity. Stronger-than-expected readings usually help the USD gather strength against its rivals. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are also watched closely by investors as they provide useful insights regarding the state of the labour market and inflation.
- Gold catches aggressive bets on Wednesday as the US election results drag the USD to late September lows.
- Sliding US bond yields further exert pressure on the Greenback, though geopolitical risks help limit losses.
- Fed rate hike bets might contribute to capping the upside for the bullion as traders await key US macro data.
Gold (XAU/USD) clings to strong intraday gains near the weekly high, trading comfortably above the $4,000 psychological mark during Wednesday’s early European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). Democrats’ wins in the House and Senate raise the prospect of gridlock in Washington. Moreover, heightened political uncertainty drove investors to safe-haven assets, exerting downward pressure on US bond yields. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the Greenback and supporting the precious metal.
However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations fail to assist gold in building on the modest intraday uptick. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning a nearly 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at the next policy meeting in December. The bets were lifted by the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or the JOLTS report, on Tuesday, which showed that hiring held relatively steady in September. In fact, job openings rose to 7.523 million during the reported month. This comes on, up from August's upwardly revised reading of 7.190 million. This comes on top of resilient economic growth and persistent price pressures, and solidifies bets for an imminent Fed rate hike, keeping the non-yielding bullion below the $3,970 resistance zone.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play despite efforts for a diplomatic resolution to end the eight-month-old US-Iran war. In the latest developments, President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinting at an attack later this week. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen only if sanctions are waived and the US naval blockade ends. Furthermore, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that four tankers were destroyed after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz. This fuels oil supply risks and inflation fears stemming from volatile energy prices, which underpin prospects for further Fed policy tightening.
Traders now look forward to Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines could provide some impetus to gold. Meanwhile, the focus remains glued to the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will influence USD demand and determine the near-term trajectory for the precious metal. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the XAU/USD pair has bottomed out and positioning for an extension of the recovery move from the lowest level since September 2025, touched last Friday.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and all key Fibonacci retracement levels of the fall from the mid-October highs, with the 23.6% retracement at $3,947 acting as immediate overhead resistance ahead of the $3,970 zone. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.94 sits near neutral while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive at 6.65, hinting at some stabilizing momentum but not yet strong enough to challenge the prevailing downside structure.
In the meantime, a sustained strength beyond the $3,970 hurdle would expose the 38.2% level at $3,995 before the Gold price climbs to the 50.0% retracement at $4,033. Above these, the 100-period SMA at $4,057 and the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at $4,072 and $4,127, respectively, precede the cycle high near $4,197. On the downside, the main structural support is seen at the Fibonacci anchor around $3,869, where buyers could attempt to reassert a floor if bearish pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Nov 04, 2026 13:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 69K
Previous: 90K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- USD/JPY returns above 158.00 after bouncing from session lows at 157.39.
- The US Dollar dropped across the board following news reporting that the Democrats took control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.
- The sound US macroeconomic fundamentals and ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict are providing support to the USD.
The Japanese Yen (JPY ) holds moderate gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, but it has given back almost half of the ground taken following news of a sound Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. The USD/JPY trades near 158.15 as of writing after bouncing up from session lows at 157.39, although still below the intraday high, at 158.75.
Investors sold the US Dollar across the board during Wednesday’s Asian session as reports confirmed that the Democrats took control of Congress and also the Senate, which was more disputed, in a massive rebuke to President Donald Trump’s policies.
Fears of tougher AI regulation have spooked investors
Markets expect Democrats to implement regulation in the AI sector and put a brake on data center building. This has rushed investors into the safety of US Government bonds, pushing yields and the US Dollar lower and boosting traditional safe-havens such as the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.
Looking from a wider perspective, however, the US Dollar remains supported by strong fundamentals, which are likely to limit downside attempts. Later on the day, the focus will shift to the US ADP Employment Change Report, which is expected to show a moderate slowdown in employment growth in October, while the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is set to show levels consistent with solid business activity.
Beyond that, the conflict in the Middle East remains in a grey area, despite the ongoing efforts to resume the negotiating process, which keeps Brent Oil well above $100. The US launched a strike on Iranian targets hours before the elections, and Trump has kept the possibility of further strikes alive. Concerns about an all-out war would likely push Oil prices higher and restore the US Dollar’s safe-haven status.
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 4:
The US Dollar (USD) weakens against its major rivals early Wednesday as markets assess the outcome of midterm elections. The European economic calendar will feature preliminary October inflation data from the Eurozone. Later in the day, ADP Employment Change and the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) will be watched closely by market participants.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.30% | -0.34% | -0.36% | -0.26% | -0.35% | 0.03% | -0.40% | |
| EUR | 0.30% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.07% | 0.31% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.36% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.38% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.12% | -0.10% | 0.26% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 0.36% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.03% | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.26% | -0.36% | -0.40% | |
| CHF | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.40% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Democrats won the Senate and the House in midterm elections to take control of the US Congress in the last two years of Donald Trump's presidancy. Trump acknowledged that the Iran war is "partly to blame" for Republicans' defeat and said that he has no plans to make personnel changes inside his administration, as per the Wall Street Journal. With the first reaction to the election results, US stock index futures trade mixed, the USD Index stays in negative territory near 101.50 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays on the back foot below 4.95%.
Dollar enthusiasm fades as US equities and Nasdaq face renewed pressure
Analysts at Commerzbank warn that “US equities, and the more tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, are likely to come under pressure today,” noting that the Dollar’s recent strength has “benefited substantially in recent months from the enthusiasm surrounding US equities and the resulting capital inflows.” They caution that, as that equity-driven support ebbs, “Dollar weakness could therefore become somewhat more entrenched over the coming hours.”
Looking beyond the immediate market reaction, Commerzbank adds that “if political debate in the United States were to shift back toward a more constructive direction, admittedly a very big if, this could reduce the political risk premium embedded in the US Dollar and provide the currency with structural support over the longer term.”
Gold benefits from the broad USD weakness and gathers bullish momentum on Wednesday, rising more than 2% to trade above $4,000.
In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the data from New Zealand showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 5.7% in the third quarter from 5.6%. This print came in worse tha the market expectation of 5.5%. Despite the disappointing labor market data, NZD/USD gathers bullish momentum on Wednesday and trades slightly above 0.5600, up about 0.4% on the day.
EUR/USD climbed to a fresh two-week high above 1.1250 earlier in the day but retreated toward 1.1230 to erase a portion of its daily gains. On a yearly basis, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to rise 4% following the 3.8% increase recorded in September.
GBP/USD extends its winning streak into a sixth consecutive day on Wednesday and trades at its highest level sinde mid-September above 1.3450. The Bank of England (BoE) is forecast announce a 25 basis points rate hike on Thursday.
USD/JPY declined sharply during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday but managed to stage a rebound later. At the time of press, the pair was trading slightly above 158.00, still down about 0.4% on the day.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that resilient Eurozone data and a vigilant European Central Bank (ECB) now underpin the Euro, prompting a dial-back of earlier bearish EUR/USD views. Strong manufacturing PMIs, sticky input cost inflation and concerns over second-round effects and wages suggest the ECB may stay hawkish, while any unwind of EUR-funded carry trades could force investors to buy back Euro.
Resilient data and ECB caution
"We’re dialing back our view that the euro will weaken even as the economy strengthens. Resilient data and a hawkish ECB should put a floor under EUR for now, while a near-term reversal in October’s pro-carry flows into trades funded in European currencies would force investors to buy back EUR."
"Second-round effects will decide policy. Lagarde hedged her comments on second-round effects, noting that the central bank didn’t see a risk of them materializing “in addition to what is already included in the projections.” But the September baseline projections, which assumed a stronger EUR and lower energy prices than today, already showed non-energy industrial goods and services lifting inflation through H1 2027."
"Further upward revisions would push 2027 core inflation toward 3%, against the current 2.5% assumption."
"EUR can benefit as European funders recover. By design, when iFlow Carry significance reaches extremes based on rank correlations, there is scope for carry to mean-revert and unwind. The best risk-reward lies in currencies with the largest potential moves, assuming high-yielders begin to see net sales and funders net purchases."
"Our analysis shows that European funders had the worst flow performance over the past month and have the most to gain from a carry pullback. The EUR’s flow funding cost ranking (25 out of 32, where 1 is the highest flow score) is consistent with this view. If yields remain well anchored, or even rise, the currency’s flow performance could rebound sharply."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
- Silver price soars to near $51.85 on Democrats’ victory in both the House and the Senate.
- Democrats controlling the Federal law could keep the US Dollar under pressure.
- The Fed is expected to tighten monetary conditions in the December meeting.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges almost 4% to near $51.85 in the European trade on Wednesday. The white metal rallies vertically after the outcome of United States (US) midterm elections, in which Democrats have won majority seats in both Houses of Federal law.
The victory of Democrats has raised concerns over the continuation of ongoing policies, especially support Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending, by US President Donald Trump’s administration, leading to a significant improvement in the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver. However, this uncertainty is expected to keep the US Dollar (USD) under pressure.
Dollar sentiment softens as US tech equities face renewed pressure
Analysts at Commerzbank warn that US equities, and "the more tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, are likely to come under pressure” due to election, noting that the Dollar’s recent strength has been closely tied to "enthusiasm surrounding US equities and the resulting capital inflows."
In their view, any setback for US stocks could mean that "Dollar weakness could therefore become somewhat more entrenched over the coming hours." Commerzbank adds that "if investment begins to lose momentum, markets could start pricing in a weaker phase of US growth, which would weigh on the Dollar," reinforcing the risk that the currency’s latest pullback may extend as growth expectations are reassessed.
Going forward, the next key trigger for the Silver price will be US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to have a significant impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed is highly expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.00%-4.25% range in the December meeting.
Later in the day, investors will pay attention to the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for October.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $51.77, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $54.83. The metal’s failure to reclaim this short-term trend benchmark suggests ongoing downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.69 shows weak momentum that has bounced from oversold territory but still lacks bullish conviction.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near $54.83, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone. On the downside, the 11-month low at $48.62 is the key support level; a break below the same would open the door for further downside towards $45.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Deutsche Bank notes that Democratic gains in Congress have weighed on US equity futures, particularly technology stocks, amid concerns over tighter AI regulation. Asian markets showed mixed performance, while European equities remained under pressure following the previous session’s recovery in major US indices.
Global equities diverge as tech-led selling weighs on futures
"That backdrop helped US equities to finally stage a recovery, with the S&P 500 (+0.36%) picking up after 3 consecutive declines. That was led by the tech sector, with the NASDAQ (+0.83%) posting an even bigger advance, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (+2.63%) rebounded after falling by -11.6% over the previous three sessions."
"When it comes to the market reaction, there’s been a clear selloff in US equity futures, led by the tech sector. In part, that reflects investor expectations that Democratic control in Congress might lead to tougher regulation on AI, and futures on the S&P 500 are down –0.42% this morning, whilst those on the NASDAQ 100 are down -0.49%. However, S&P futures were down over -1% earlier, so they’ve pared back a decent chunk of those earlier losses, and there’s been a rally for US Treasuries as well, given that divided government has generally made it harder for fiscal stimulus to be passed."
"In Asia, there’s been a similar pattern overnight, with several of the most tech-exposed indices posting sharp losses, although they’ve recovered from earlier in the session. Nevertheless, Japan’s Nikkei is currently down -2.09% this morning, whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.03%) is now basically flat, but was down more than -4% at the lows earlier. Meanwhile other indices have posted gains, including the Hang Seng (+0.89%), the CSI 300 (+1.02%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.83%)."
"However, European equities underperformed their US counterparts, largely as they caught up to the late selloff in the US session the previous day, with the STOXX 600 closing -0.58% lower. And this morning, European equity futures are also trading lower, with those on the STOXX 600 down another -0.66%. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Democrats win a majority in both the US Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday, taking control from Republicans.
Democrats have seized control of the US Senate, according to the Associated Press. With historic wins in Texas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina, the party now has 54 seats. 51 seats are needed to to win the upper chamber of Congress.
In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for election. 218 seats are required to build a majority. According to live data from the Decision Desk HQ, election results have been called in 376 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, with Democrats securing 233 seats and Republicans winning 143.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with the New York Times on Tuesday that he was willing to accept the results of the midterm elections and was prepared to work with Democrats.
Traders anticipate more friction for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data centre investment, as well as potential political deadlock and prolonged negotiations over the debt ceiling and fiscal policy should Democrats gain control of Congress.
Key quotes from Trump
Democrats will send insane measures and I will veto them.
Part of outcome related to Iran.
People likely unwilling to accept short-term gasoline price impact.
Democrats performed well.
I could collaborate with Democrats on many issues.
I can cooperate with Democrats on immigration.
I don't expect to alter cabinet.
I will accept election outcome.
I don’t regret initiating the Iran conflict earlier this year.
No plans to alter personnel in his administration, backs Pete Hegseth.
Market reaction
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under selling pressure following this headline. At the time of writing, the DXY is down 0.34% on the day at 101.51. US Stock futures dropped on Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures trading 0.38% lower to around 7,568 and Nasdaq futures falling 0.50% to around 28,155, with technology bearing the brunt of the selling.
US Treasury yields fell across the curve as the results emerged, with the 5-year Treasury yields dropping as much as nine basis points (bps) to 4.68%. Benchmark 10-year yields were down two bps to 4.929%.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.66% | -0.51% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.69% | 0.47% | -0.78% | |
| EUR | 0.66% | 0.13% | 1.01% | 0.64% | 1.28% | 1.11% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | -0.13% | 0.72% | 0.52% | 1.15% | 0.98% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.40% | -1.01% | -0.72% | -0.35% | 0.29% | 0.01% | -1.26% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.64% | -0.52% | 0.35% | 0.67% | 0.37% | -0.80% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | -1.28% | -1.15% | -0.29% | -0.67% | -0.17% | -1.40% | |
| NZD | -0.47% | -1.11% | -0.98% | -0.01% | -0.37% | 0.17% | -1.31% | |
| CHF | 0.78% | 0.15% | 0.27% | 1.26% | 0.80% | 1.40% | 1.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US midterm elections FAQs
The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.
They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.
No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.
US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.
Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.
- New Zealand Dollar recovers to near 0.5600 against the US Dollar after revisiting 18-month low of 0.5564
- Democrats win majority seats in both the House and the Senate.
- Investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for October.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds onto early recovery move at around 0.5600 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair bounces back after revisiting the 18-month low at 0.5564.
The outlook of the Kiwi pair is expected to remain uncertain as the US Dollar has shown signs of recovery after the outcome of United States (US) midterm elections, in which Democrats have won majority in both the House and the Senate.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.34% lower to near 101.55. However, the DXY has recovered significantly from its day’s low of 101.25.
The US Dollar was underperforming in the past few weeks as market participants had already priced in Democrats’ victory in both houses of Federal laws.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for October, which will be published at 13:15 GMT. The US agency is expected to show that private employers hired 69K fresh workers, lower than 90K in September.
Later in the day, financial markets will also pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI data for October. The Services PMI is seen at 54.8, marginally lower than the previous reading of 54.9.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5601, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5645. The pair is capped by this short-term EMA, which hints that rebounds are likely to struggle while price holds under it, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 reinforces persistent downside pressure without reaching oversold extremes.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period EMA near 0.5645, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and allow a deeper recovery. Looking down, the 18-month low at 0.5564 is acting as key support for the pair. A decisive break below 0.5564 would expose the pair to 0.5500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Nov 04, 2026 13:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 69K
Previous: 90K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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