Forex News
- WTI pulls back after touching a one-year high near $77.20 on Tuesday.
- Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep a geopolitical risk premium in Oil prices.
- Technically, WTI maintains a bullish structure as RSI nears overbought levels while MACD remains in positive territory.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trims part of its intraday gains on Wednesday as traders assess geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $74.32 after briefly reaching a one-year high of $77.20 on Tuesday.
The pullback comes after a New York Times report suggested that Iranian operatives had signalled openness to discussing terms to end the war. However, crude prices remain elevated, up nearly 10% this week, amid ongoing disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump tried to calm markets, saying the US “will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible” if necessary. In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump added that Washington would provide political risk insurance for ships traveling through the Gulf to “ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 3.475 million barrels last week, above expectations of 2.2 million barrels, though the increase was far smaller than the previous 15.989 million-barrel build. The report had little impact on prices as markets continued to focus on supply disruptions in the Middle East.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows WTI maintaining a steady uptrend, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since bottoming at $54.88 on December 16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 77, pointing to overbought conditions while still reflecting strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the signal line and firmly in positive territory, with the histogram continuing to expand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at Tuesday’s peak near $77.20. A break above this level could bring the $79.00-$80.00 resistance zone, marked by the January 15, 2025 high near $79.37. A sustained move above this zone may open the door for a further extension toward the $85.00 handle.
On the downside, initial support emerges in the $69.00-$70.00 zone. A break below this area could expose the 21-day SMA near $65.86, followed by the 50-day SMA around $62.30.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- Gold rebounds after a 4.4% drop as DXY slips to 98.82.
- ISM Services PMI jumps to 56.1; ADP jobs beat estimates at 63K.
- Fed easing bets trimmed to 43 bps as geopolitical risks dominate sentiment.
Gold price (XAU/USD) advances during the North American session on Wednesday, up by more than 1% after registering losses of close to 4.40% courtesy of broad US Dollar strength. Nevertheless, tensions in the Middle East remain high, pushing the yellow metal near the $5,150 area at the time of writing.
Gold poised for additional gains on fragile risk appetite
Earlier, the New York Times reported that Iranian intelligence reached out indirectly to the CIA a day after the attacks to discuss terms for ending the war. Nevertheless, US officials remained skeptical that either the White House or Tehran is ready for a de-escalation. The headline improved risk appetite, which was dented by a headline that a US submarine sank an Iranian warship. Consequently, bullion prices could continue to edge higher, taking advantage of a weaker US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value versus six currencies, posts losses of 0.25%, down to 98.82. Also, US Treasury yields are consolidating as depicted by the 10-year Treasury note, unchanged at 4.069%.
Strong PMI, jobs report reveals a strong US economy
US macroeconomic data reaffirmed that the economy remains positive. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, also known as Services PMI, improved from 53.8 in January to 56.1 last month, reaching a three-and-a-half year high. The New Orders sub-component rose to its highest level since September 2024.
Earlier, the ADP Employment Change in February showed that private companies hired more people than the 50K estimated. The number came at 63K, almost six times January’s 11K downward revised print.
Traders shrugged off the positive US data, setting their sights on geopolitical risks and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Recently, some countries in the Middle East halted Oil and Gas production, as the conflict continues to escalate, reaching its fifth straight day of hostilities.
On Thursday, the US economic docket will feature the release of Challenger Job Cuts for February and Initial Jobless Claims data. Alongside this, focus will turn to Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman's speech.
Investors pricing in a less dovish Fed
Money markets had priced in 43 basis points of Fed easing towards the year’s end, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold bulls face stir resistance at $5,150
Gold’s price action remains constructive, with further upside seen in the near term. Traders reclaiming $5,100 opened the door for a recovery, but bulls seem hesitant, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has ticked higher but shows buyers’ lack of strength to extend the uptrend.
Buyers will need to clear $5,200. A breach of it exposes the February 24 high at $5,249 and then $5,300. Further gains may target the March 3 peak at $5,379 ahead of $5,419. On the downside, a move below $5,000 would expose support at $4,950, followed by the February 17 cycle low at $4,841 and the 50-day SMA near $4,810.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng stress Singapore’s strong growth momentum, AI-related tailwinds and low inflation, but warn that higher Oil costs and supply chain disruptions could pressure consumers, exporters and manufacturers while MAS policy depends on Brent dynamics.
Risk-off moves and energy price exposure
"As a price taker that is highly dependent on energy imports, Singapore’s consumers and export-oriented firms will have to brace for higher electricity, transport-fuel, and shipping costs arising from the increase in global energy prices and supply chain disruptions, particularly if the Middle East conflict becomes protracted."
"We estimate around 7+% of the overall CPI basket would likely be directly impacted by higher energy prices."
"For now, imported price pressures should be dampened and contained by continued appreciation of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate, unless Brent crude oil prices spike further, which might complicate the MAS’s policy bias towards earlier tightening."
"Manufacturers are already facing capacity and supply chain constraints, as reflected in the sharper contraction in the supplier deliveries sub-index of the February manufacturing purchasing managers’ index at 49.6 – the lowest in about two years since early 2024."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- The Dow gained 312 points at the time of writing, rebounding from Tuesday's 400-point decline amid the US-Iran conflict.
- ADP private payrolls surprised to the upside at 63K versus 50K expected, while ISM Services surged to 56.1, its highest level since July 2022.
- CrowdStrike rose after beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates, posting record annual recurring revenue above $5 billion.
- Oil pulled back from multi-day highs after Treasury Secretary Bessent pledged to stabilize Gulf shipping lanes, easing supply disruption fears.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 312 points higher, or 0.65%, at 48,807 at the time of writing on Wednesday, clawing back most of Tuesday's losses after a session that saw the index drop as much as 1.2K points intraday before closing down 403 points. The index opened at 48,368 and reached an intraday high of 48,853, though it remained below the 50-day exponential moving average at 48,979. The S&P 500 rose 0.87% to 6,875, while the Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 1.47% gain to 22,847. A combination of better-than-expected economic data and easing Oil prices gave investors a reason to buy the dip, even as the US-Iran conflict continued to dominate headlines.
Strong jobs and services data bolster sentiment
ADP's National Employment Report showed private sector employers added 63K jobs in February, comfortably beating the 50K consensus and marking a sharp acceleration from January's revised 11K print. Separately, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 56.1 from 53.8 in January, well above the 53.5 forecast and the highest reading since July 2022. The new orders component rose to 58.6, signaling robust demand across the services sector. The data pushed back against recession fears that had been building alongside the geopolitical turmoil, although the ISM prices paid component came in at 63, which may keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) cautious on rate cuts.
Nonfarm Payrolls on deck Friday
Attention now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for February, where the consensus expects just 60K jobs added, down sharply from January's 130K print. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast at 0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%. Before that, Thursday brings Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 215K) and preliminary fourth-quarter productivity and unit labor cost data. The Fed's Beige Book, due later Wednesday, will also be closely watched for anecdotal evidence on tariff impacts and hiring trends ahead of the March 18–19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Oil eases as Bessent pledges Gulf shipping support
Crude Oil gave up earlier gains on Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the administration plans to make "a series of announcements" to stabilize oil flows in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude pulled back to around $81 after touching $85.12 in Tuesday's session. The reversal helped ease pressure on equity markets, which have been whipsawed by energy price spikes since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began late last week. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, but Trump's earlier pledge to insure and escort Gulf shipping has so far prevented a worst-case scenario for supply.
CrowdStrike delivers record quarter, guides higher
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.12, beating the $1.10 consensus, on revenue of $1.31 billion that topped the $1.30 billion estimate. The cybersecurity firm set an all-time record for net new annual recurring revenue at $331 million, up 47% year over year, and crossed the $5 billion milestone in total ending ARR. For fiscal 2027, CrowdStrike guided revenue to $5.87–$5.93 billion and full-year adjusted EPS of $4.78–$4.90, both broadly in line with expectations. Shares fell modestly in after-hours trading on Tuesday but were trading higher in Wednesday's session.
Target rallies on earnings beat and growth plan
Target Corporation (TGT) extended gains on Wednesday, rising roughly 7% after posting fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.44 versus the $2.16 consensus. The retailer also unveiled a multi-year growth strategy including an incremental $2 billion investment in 2026 and full-year EPS guidance of $7.50–$8.50. Elsewhere, Pinterest Inc. (PINS) added to Tuesday's 9% surge after activist firm Elliott Investment Management made a $1 billion investment in the company, funding a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program. Box Inc. (BOX) also jumped more than 6% after a better-than-expected fourth-quarter report.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Silver rebounds after a sharp recent correction, rising 1.60% on Wednesday.
- Military escalation between the US, Israel and Iran boosts demand for safe-haven assets.
- Concerns over energy-driven inflation and the Fed outlook support the US Dollar.
Silver (XAG/USD) advances on Wednesday, trading around $83.80 at the time of writing, up 1.60% on the day. The precious metal is rebounding after a steep correction seen over the previous two days, during which prices fell sharply amid broad liquidation across precious metals.
Demand for safe-haven assets is strengthening as geopolitical tensions intensify in the Middle East. The war involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran has entered a new phase of military escalation, marked by airstrikes and missile attacks on several strategic sites. Tehran has responded with missile and drone strikes targeting US bases and allied facilities in the region, increasing uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory.
In this context, markets are closely monitoring potential disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global Oil exports. The prospect of sustained higher energy prices is reviving global inflation concerns and reinforcing the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets such as Silver.
US President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy could escort commercial vessels in the Gulf to ensure the free flow of energy, adding that Washington could also provide political risk insurance for tankers operating in the region.
At the same time, investors are reassessing the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets are currently pricing in around 50 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, according to estimates based on the CME FedWatch tool. Such an environment could support precious metals, which tend to benefit from lower interest rates.
However, the strengthening US Dollar (USD) may limit further gains in USD-denominated Silver. Rising energy prices are fueling inflation expectations, prompting some investors to reconsider the timing of potential monetary easing by the Fed.
On the macroeconomic front, the latest US data still point to a resilient economy. The ADP private employment report showed job growth of 63K in February, above market expectations, while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in the previous month. These indicators suggest solid economic activity, which could support the US Dollar and moderate Silver’s upside momentum.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Nordea Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen discusses how Denmark’s strong public finances and rising employment provide a solid base to absorb sharply higher defense spending mandated by NATO’s new 5% of GDP target. He warns that rearmament will constrain future fiscal space for welfare and tax reforms and increase pressure to boost productivity, including via artificial intelligence.
Higher defense outlays squeeze fiscal space
"Ever since 2014, NATO has had a target that member countries should spend 2% of GDP on defense, but only a few countries lived up to this target."
"After Donald Trump put pressure on European NATO countries, it was decided as part of the Hague Agreement from June 2025 that all NATO countries, including Denmark, must spend 5% of GDP on defense expenditures from 2035."
"Although the fiscal space (or available room for maneuver, as it is now also called) is not being used to its full extent in the 2035 plan, it is a fact that the markedly increasing expenditures mean there will be less available for ordinary welfare improvements or tax reforms in the coming years."
"Compared to the time before the world went off track, we now face annual additional defense expenditures of almost 75 billion kroner."
"So rearmament is costly and places great demands on the prioritization of public expenditures in the future."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- USD/JPY eases on Wednesday as the US Dollar rally loses steam after two days of gains.
- US-Iran war and elevated Oil prices keep market sentiment cautious.
- Stronger US economic data fails to trigger fresh buying in the US Dollar.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the Greenback pauses after two days of strong gains, allowing the Yen to recover modestly. However, market sentiment remains cautious amid escalating tensions from the ongoing US-Iran war.
At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 157.00, retreating slightly after hitting 157.97 on Tuesday, its highest level in over a month.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.85, easing after climbing to its highest level since November 28, 2025, near 99.68.
US economic data released on Wednesday failed to provide meaningful support to the US Dollar. ADP Employment Change showed private payrolls increased by 63K in February, up from 11K previously and above expectations of 50K.
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February, up from 53.8 in the previous month, signaling continued expansion in the sector.
Supporting the upbeat outlook, the ISM Services Employment Index climbed to 51.8 from 50.3, while the New Orders Index advanced to 58.6 from 53.1. However, the Prices Paid Index eased to 63 from 66.6.
Elsewhere, the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to dominate market sentiment as the war enters its fifth day. The escalation has stoked concerns about global inflation, driven by rising Oil prices.
Japan, a major energy importer, could face higher import costs if Oil prices continue to rise. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections. However, he warned that rising global uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East, could affect Japan’s economic outlook.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.13% | -0.00% | -0.41% | -0.01% | -0.29% | -0.57% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.13% | 0.12% | -0.24% | 0.11% | -0.16% | -0.45% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.38% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.56% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.41% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.40% | 0.12% | -0.17% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.11% | 0.01% | -0.40% | -0.28% | -0.56% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | 0.16% | 0.28% | -0.12% | 0.28% | -0.28% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.57% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.17% | 0.56% | 0.28% | 0.45% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.29% | 0.10% | -0.17% | -0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
- GBP/USD recovers to 1.3361 after touching a session high of 1.3403.
- ISM Services PMI jumps to 56.1 while ADP jobs rise to 63K.
- BoE March cut odds plunge from 74% to 25% amid Oil-driven inflation fears.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground versus the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, though tensions in the Middle East remain high, pushing macroeconomic data releases into the backseat. A better-than-expected employment reading in the US was mainly ignored by traders with their sights set on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3361.
Sterling steadies despite Middle East tensions, with traders focused on Friday’s jobs report
During the European session, GBP/USD edged towards its daily high of 1.3403 amid relief at a possible de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. Nevertheless, Reuters reported that the “US sub sinks Iranian warship,” triggered a leg-down in the pair.
In the meantime, US economic data witnessed the release of the ISM Services PMI for February, which showed that business activity is gathering pace, up from 53.8 a month ago, to 56.1, exceeding estimates for a deceleration to 53.5.
Additionally, the ADP Employment Change report in February showed that private companies hired more people than expected, with the print coming at 63K, well above January’s 11K and beating forecasts of 50K.
In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said that the “government had the right economic plan” for the country. She acknowledged inflationary pressures due to the Middle East conflict, added that the government is on course to “secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.”
The aftermath of the Middle East conflict has money markets showing traders trimmed the odds for a rate cut by the Bank of England. The jump in oil prices pushed rate cut odds from 74% to just 25% as of writing, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Ahead of this week, the UK economic docket is absent. In the US, traders will lean on speeches by Fed officials, and the release of employment data, namely the Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payroll figures for February.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3380. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price slips below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3535, confirming a loss of upside momentum seen after repeated failures along the descending resistance trend line from 1.3869. The recent break under the 1.3498 trend-line resistance-turned-cap underscores sellers’ control, while the longer-term rising support line from 1.3035 still holds below price and tempers the downside outlook into a corrective tone rather than a fully developed downtrend.
Initial resistance emerges at 1.3498, where the broken descending trend line and the nearby moving average group converge, followed by the late-January high near 1.3554. A daily close above this zone would be needed to negate the current bearish bias and reopen the path toward the 1.3650–1.3700 band. On the downside, immediate support lies at the psychological 1.3350 region, ahead of the rising trend-line support projecting from 1.3035, with a decisive break there exposing the next lower area toward 1.3250.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 4 at 16:27 to say that the ADP Employment Change print in January was 11K, not 22K.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.13% | 0.37% | 0.79% | 0.15% | -0.20% | 0.44% | 1.66% | |
| EUR | -1.13% | -0.77% | -0.37% | -0.98% | -1.32% | -0.68% | 0.52% | |
| GBP | -0.37% | 0.77% | 0.23% | -0.22% | -0.56% | 0.08% | 1.29% | |
| JPY | -0.79% | 0.37% | -0.23% | -0.58% | -0.92% | -0.23% | 0.91% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.98% | 0.22% | 0.58% | -0.38% | 0.36% | 1.52% | |
| AUD | 0.20% | 1.32% | 0.56% | 0.92% | 0.38% | 0.64% | 1.86% | |
| NZD | -0.44% | 0.68% | -0.08% | 0.23% | -0.36% | -0.64% | 1.22% | |
| CHF | -1.66% | -0.52% | -1.29% | -0.91% | -1.52% | -1.86% | -1.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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