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BNY’s Bob Savage argues that Eurozone stagflation risks are building as energy pressures rise, with headline CPI pushed higher by fuel while core remains contained. He expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to stay cautious and watch second-round effects, and sees aggressive front-end hike pricing in the Eurozone and United Kingdom (UK) as likely to be pared back in a volatile process.
Energy shock, CPI and ECB pricing
"The International Energy Agency’s special briefing for EU finance ministers will likely trigger additional national-level support for motorists and industry. Shortages are not as acute as in the emerging world, and most scenarios point to resilience. However, there are individual products where supply, rather than price, could become critical."
"On the other hand, if households are forced to pull back on demand as well, core inflation may not rise as sharply, which could obviate the need for hikes to restrain economic activity. Consequently, the CPI figures in the week ahead will be essential for an initial read on how inflation dynamics are evolving."
"Core inflation across the Eurozone has been running ahead of headline over the last two years. During the 2022–2023 energy shock, headline inflation was the clear leader, but it dragged core prices higher because the cycle was different: global demand was recovering and households had strong wage bargaining power, which may not exist this time around. "
"Furthermore, markets will need to acknowledge that the ECB could struggle for unanimity in the near term: Governing Council member Muller warned that the central bank “may not need fully visible second-round effects” before acting – a bold call, in our view, without sufficient information."
"Inflation data aside, we expect wage data to carry significant weight in policy decisions in the near term. Due to inflation stabilization before the conflict, this year’s collective bargaining rounds were not expected to register material increases."
"Our bias remains that aggressive pricing of front-end hikes in the U.K. and Eurozone will come off, but the process will likely remain volatile."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 183.91.
- The Relative Strength Index RSI slips toward 50, indicating weakening upside momentum.
- The pair may test the initial support at the 50-day EMA at 183.37.
EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.60 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross remains within the upper boundary of the ascending triangle pattern, reflecting rising buying pressure.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the nine-day EMA rises above it, signaling short-term upside pressure. The pair has rebounded from the 180.81 support area and continues to print higher lows, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back toward the 50 line, showing fading upside momentum but not yet signaling bearish pressure, which keeps the focus on dip-buying interest while the EUR/JPY cross trades above nearby support.
The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.91, followed by the upper ascending triangle boundary around 184.60. A successful breakout above the triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 183.37, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.50. A break below the channel would expose the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.40% | 0.10% | 0.36% | 0.39% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.48% | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.30% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.51% | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.40% | 0.48% | 0.51% | 0.50% | 0.77% | 0.77% | 0.50% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.00% | -0.00% | -0.50% | 0.27% | 0.22% | -0.00% | |
| AUD | -0.36% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.77% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | -0.39% | -0.30% | -0.29% | -0.77% | -0.22% | -0.01% | -0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.50% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay explains that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has capped banks’ net open Indian Rupee (INR) positions at USD 100 million per day to curb speculation and volatility. With outstanding long Dollar (USD) positions estimated at USD 30–40 billion, forced unwinding is expected to push USD/INR lower, potentially towards 92.00, though high Oil prices may limit Rupee gains.
Position caps force USD selling in India
"In a short statement last Friday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that banks must cap their net open rupee positions (NOP-INR) at USD100mn at the end of each business day. NOP refers to the bank’s aggregate currency exposure i.e. net of all their long and short positions across spot, forwards, and options in INR."
"There are estimates that aggregate outstanding long USD positions across banks could be between USD30-40bn. It is also unclear how much of this is distributed across the banks which will determine the extent of unwinding in the long USD positions."
"The net effect is that USD/INR is expected to drop as banks are forced to unwind long USD positions in the onshore market, particularly those linked to the non-deliverable forward-onshore arbitrage. The question is how aggressive it will be and how much it will fall."
"RBI is not intervening directly in the FX market, but instead it is forcing banks to sell USD. USD/INR closed at a record high of just below 95.00 last Friday. We could see a slide towards the 92.00 level in the next week or so but as long as oil prices remain high, USD/INR will likely remain supported."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- AUD/USD rebound from 0.6842 lows fails to find acceptance above 0.6870.
- The risk-averse mood weighs on the Aussie as the Iran war complicates.
- Analysts at UOB contemplate a further decline towards 0.6765.
The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is trimming losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The pair bounced from two-month lows around 0.6840 but is struggling to rise above 0.6870, as negative market sentiment keeps weighing on any significant Aussie recovery.
Investors' mood remains sour on Monday, as the Middle East War gets messier by the day. The irruption of the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen this weekend has added a new variable to an already complicated scenario, blurring any swift end to the conflict. The Houthis have launched missiles at Israel from Yemen, and threatened to close the Strait of Bab el Mandab, another bottleneck for Saudi Oil supply, which might trigger a further escalation in Crude prices.
Scepticism about Trump's "negotiations"
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has reiterated that there are direct and indirect talks with the Iranian leaders, praising their “very reasonable" attitude, and Pakistan offered to hold talks between the US and Iran.
Investors, however, have taken these comments in stride, as Tehran remains sceptical. Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammed Baqer Qalibat, accused the US of sending messages about negotiations while preparing a ground invasion, and other Iranian leaders threatened with a bloodbath if that invasion finally takes place.
Bearing this in mind, rallies in the risk-sensitive Aussie are likely to find sellers. Technical analysts at UOB see the pair in a bearish trend with 0.6765 as a potential target: “While the weekly MACD remains in positive territory, it has been heading steadily lower over the past few weeks (...) The overall technical picture suggests that AUD/USD could continue to head lower. A clear break below the 0.6850/0.6870 support zone could potentially trigger a sharp decline toward 0.6765."
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
but is struggling to rise above 0.6870, as
- The Indian Rupee gives back early gains against the US Dollar and slumps to the all-time low around 95.45.
- Earlier in the day, RBI's limit to bank's foreign exposure boosted the Indian Rupee.
- Oil prices rally amid fears of further escalation in the Middle East war.
The Indian Rupee (INR) surrenders its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, which were driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) introduction of new limits on banks’ foreign-exchange exposure. The USD/INR pair has reclaimed its all-time high at 95.45 after a weak opening around 94.00.
Late Friday, the RBI directed banks to cap their net open rupee positions in the foreign exchange market at $100 million by the end of each business day, with compliance required by April 10, Reuters reported.
The impact of the RBI’s curb on long onshore positions in the USD/INR pair remained short-lived, as the fundamental damage to the Indian currency due to higher oil prices and the consistent outflow of foreign funds could trigger the resumption of the broader decline.
Oil price gains amid fears of US ground invasion
Global oil prices have rallied in the early trade on Monday, with the WTI Oil Price rising over 2.5% to near $102.50, amid fears that the United States (US) could execute military action on the ground in Iran.
On Thursday, a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that the US Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 additional military troops to Iran for ground military attacks. In response, Iran’s Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also said that Iran would "rain fire" on any US troops attempting to enter Iranian territory, BBC reported.
Currencies from economies, such as India, that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
FIIs selling continues amid Middle East tensions
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are consistently dumping their stake in the Indian stock market as the ongoing war in the Middle East has prompted demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar (USD).
So far this month, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 1,11,376.83 crore.
US Dollar to remains volaitile in US-data packed week
This week, investors brace for high volatility in the US Dollar as a string of US labor market-linked and ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data are scheduled to be published.
Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR corrects to near 94.00
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USD/INR bounces back to near 95.45 as of writing. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.30. The sequence of higher closes since early November reinforces upward pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains inside the 60.00-80.00 range, signaling strong bullish momentum, but have also reached overbought levels.
Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA around 93.23, where a break would expose deeper downside toward the January high of 92.50. Below that, the next notable support stands at 92.00, where the prior consolidation base aligns with the broader trend structure. On the upside, the price could extend its way toward the 96.00 area as the next upside reference. As long as price holds above 93.23, pullbacks remain consistent with a bullish continuation scenario.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 30:
Markets cling to a cautious stance early Monday as investors assess the latest developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Later in the European session, regional and national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be watched closely. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.44% | 0.24% | 1.28% | 2.01% | 1.42% | 1.39% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.16% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 1.71% | 1.14% | 1.11% | |
| GBP | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.23% | 0.84% | 1.57% | 0.98% | 0.88% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 1.01% | 1.76% | 1.15% | 1.05% | |
| CAD | -1.28% | -1.00% | -0.84% | -1.01% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | -2.01% | -1.71% | -1.57% | -1.76% | -0.74% | -0.57% | -0.68% | |
| NZD | -1.42% | -1.14% | -0.98% | -1.15% | -0.14% | 0.57% | -0.10% | |
| CHF | -1.39% | -1.11% | -0.88% | -1.05% | -0.10% | 0.68% | 0.10% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, Houthis, entered the month-old war in the Middle East on Saturday, claiming two missile launches at Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli military continued carrying out extensive strikes over the weekend, on what it called targets belonging to the Iranian regime across Tehran. Additionally, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they will be expanding operations in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets.
In an interview with the Financial Times, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they could "take the oil in Iran" and noted that discussions with Tehran were going "extremely well." Trump added that a deal could be made fairly quickly.
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades marginally higher on the day, above $99, and US stock index cling to small gains after Wall Street's main indexes suffered heavy losses on Friday. After rising nearly 0.7% in the previous week, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in a consolidation phase above 100.00 in the European morning on Monday.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said during Asian trading hours on Monday that changes in the foreign exchange (FX) market are key factors that have a huge impact on Japan's economy, and prices. He added that the BoJ will guide the policy by assessing how FX moves could affect the likelihood of achieving the growth, price forecasts as well as risks. After climbing to the 160.50 region earlier in the day, USD/JPY reversed its direction and was last seen trading at around 159.70, losing 0.4% on the day. In the Asian session on Tuesday, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be featured in the Japanese economic calendar.
EUR/USD fell below 1.1500 at the weekly opening but managed to stage a rebound. Later in the session, the European Commission will publish business and consumer sentiment data for March.
After rising more than 2.5% on Friday, Gold holds its ground early Monday and trades in positive territory above $4,500.
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold and trades near 1.3250 in the European morning after closing the previous four trading days in negative territory.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Deutsche Bank analysts note the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened modestly against the US Dollar (USD) as officials flag speculative FX activity and warn that decisive action may soon be necessary. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions contained hawkish elements, including discussion of potentially accelerating rate hikes if Middle East tensions persist, supporting a less negative stance on the Yen.
Stronger JPY on hawkish BoJ signals
"Away from the Middle East, we’ve also seen the Japanese yen strengthen overnight, moving up +0.34% against the US Dollar to 159.76."
"That comes after Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said that they were hearing about speculative activity picking up in FX markets, and that if it continued, “we believe decisive action may soon be necessary.”"
"In addition, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from their recent meeting had hawkish elements."
"For example, there was even a comment they should “pay attention to whether it is necessary to accelerate the pace of policy interest rate hikes beyond previous projections and shift toward neutral or restrictive financial conditions, if tension over the situation in the Middle East were to become prolonged.”"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- NZD/USD recovers early losses and turns flat around 0.5745 as investors’ risk appetite improves.
- Middle East conflicts have intensified following the Iran-backed Houthis' entry.
- The US Dollar ticks down ahead of Fed Powell’s speech.
The NZD/USD pair claws back its early losses and flattens around 0.5745 during the early European trading session on Monday. The Kiwi pair bounces back from its over two-month low of 0.5725, the lowest low seen in over two months. The pair attracts bids as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounces back due to the revival of the risk-on impulse.
During the European trading session, S&P 500 futures have recovered their opening losses and turned slightly positive around 6,375.
Investors’ risk appetite has improved despite the war in the Middle East intensifying. Conflicts between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran have escalated due to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) claiming that the Pentagon is preparing to send 10,000 additional military troops for the ground invasion on Iran.
In addition to potential US ground military action, the entry of Iran-backed Houthis in the ongoing war has also widened geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 14:30 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks down to near 100.10.
NZD/USD technical analysis
In the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair maintains a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is bending lower and tracking the recent sequence of lower highs.
Momentum confirms selling pressure, with the RSI slipping toward the mid-30s and extending its decline from neutral territory, indicating sellers keep control while avoiding oversold conditions for now.
Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 0.5840, and a daily close above this area would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open 0.5920 as the next upside level. On the downside, minor support sits at 0.5700, followed by a lower band around 0.5650, where a break would extend the current downtrend and expose the 0.5600 area as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed's Chair Powell speech
Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.
Read more.Next release: Mon Mar 30, 2026 14:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
- USD/CHF appreciated after the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator fell to 96.1 in February.
- SNB may intervene in FX markets to curb excessive CHF strength and maintain price stability.
- The US Dollar may strengthen on rising safe-haven demand amid fears of a potential US ground invasion in Iran.
USD/CHF continues its winning streak for the fifth successive day, trading around a two-month high of 0.8000 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair recovers its daily losses following the release of the Swiss KOF Leading Indicator, which fell to 96.1 in February, from 103.8 (revised from 104.2) in January.
However, the downside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may face challenges as Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chair Martin Schlegel expressed the SNB’s readiness to intervene in FX markets to curb sharp and excessive currency swings and safeguard price stability. Additionally, SNB board member Petra Tschudin also emphasized the central bank’s increased willingness to step in and limit further strength in the Swiss Franc.
Moreover, the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground against the major peers amid increased safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to fears of a potential United States (US) ground invasion in Iran.
A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report suggested last week that the US Pentagon could deploy 10,000 additional troops to Iran. In response, Ebrahim Zolfaqari issued a stark warning on Iranian state TV, stating that “US troops will be good food for sharks of the Persian Gulf.”
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first strikes on Israel over the weekend, widening the regional conflict and warning that attacks will continue until operations against Iran and its allies cease. The group also threatens Red Sea shipping routes and key Saudi energy infrastructure, heightening risks to global supply.
US economic data releases this week, including various labor market-linked indicators, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), as well as the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Swiss economy FAQs
Switzerland is the ninth-largest economy measured by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the European continent. Measured by GDP per capita – a broad measure of average living standards –, the country ranks among the highest in the world, meaning that it is one the richest countries globally. Switzerland tends to be in the top spots in global rankings about living standards, development indexes, competitiveness or innovation.
Switzerland is an open, free-market economy mainly based on the services sector. The Swiss economy has a strong export sector, and the neighboring European Union (EU) is its main trading partner. Switzerland is a leading exporter of watches and clocks, and hosts leading firms in the food, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries. The country is considered to be an international tax haven, with significantly low corporate and income tax rates compared with its European neighbors.
As a high-income country, the growth rate of the Swiss economy has diminished over the last decades. Still, its political and economic stability, its high education levels, top-tier firms in several industries and its tax-haven status have made it a preferred destination for foreign investment. This has generally benefited the Swiss Franc (CHF), which has historically kept relatively strong against its main currency peers. Generally, a good performance of the Swiss economy – based on high growth, low unemployment and stable prices – tends to appreciate CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
Switzerland isn’t a commodity exporter, so in general commodity prices aren’t a key driver of the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, there is a slight correlation with both Gold and Oil prices. With Gold, CHF’s status as a safe-haven and the fact that the currency used to be backed by the precious metal means that both assets tend to move in the same direction. With Oil, a paper released by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suggests that the rise in Oil prices could negatively influence CHF valuation, as Switzerland is a net importer of fuel.
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