Forex News
- AUD/USD falls sharply to near 0.6670 as dismal market mood weighs on the Australian Dollar.
- The US strike on Venezuela has triggered a risk-off market mood.
- This week, investors will focus on the Australian CPI and the US NFP data.
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.26% to near 0.6670 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair is under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its peers amid a risk-off market mood.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.03% | 0.34% | 0.30% | 0.31% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.07% | -0.31% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | 0.07% | -0.25% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.25% | 0.37% | 0.32% | 0.33% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.34% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.37% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.30% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.33% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Market sentiment turns risk-averse as the United States (US) struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro over drug-trafficking charges. US President Donald Trump has also threatened to conduct raids in Colombia and Iran.
Dismal market mood has forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) higher to an over three-week high of 98.80.
On the domestic front, the AUD will be influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November. Investors will closely monitor the Australian inflation data as it will influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. In the last policy meeting of 2025, the RBA hinted that it could tighten interest rates if inflation proves to be persistent.
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December, which will be released on Friday.
In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase slightly to 48.3 from 48.2 in November, suggesting that the business activity contracted again, but at a slightly moderate pace.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
- Dow Jones futures move little as investors evaluate the implications of the US military operation in Venezuela.
- The US detained Venezuelan President Maduro to face charges without congressional approval.
- Traders await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data scheduled for release later on Monday.
Dow Jones futures inch higher 0.06% to trade near 48,650 during the European session on Monday, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also gained, edging higher 0.14% and 0.38% to near 6,910 and 25,480, respectively. Attention is on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the North American session.
US index futures rise as investors assess the implications of the United States (US) military operation in Venezuela. The administration of US President Donald Trump launched a “large-scale strike against Venezuela” and detained President Maduro to face charges, without congressional approval. Trump said the US would administer Venezuela until a safe, orderly, and judicious transition is achieved, CNN reported over the weekend.
However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a more measured tone on Sunday, stressing that Washington has sufficient leverage to achieve its objectives while stopping short of implying direct US governance.
President Trump warned Washington could launch a new military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, fails to meet US demands. He also commented on Colombia’s leadership, floated the idea of “Operation Colombia,” criticized Mexico for failing to get its act together, and suggested Cuba appeared close to collapse, The Guardian reported on Monday.
Traders await further cues on the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December Meeting Minutes suggested that most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to stand on further rate cuts if inflation declined over time. Markets are bracing for US President Donald Trump to nominate a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, a move that could tilt monetary policy toward lower interest rates.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
- Gold rallies on Monday as rising geopolitical tensions boost demand for safe-haven assets.
- Bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Fed further benefit the non-yielding yellow metal.
- A broadly firmer USD does little to hinder the XAU/USD pair’s strong intraday positive move
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to scale higher through the first half of the European session on Monday and climbs to a four-day high, around the $4,430-4,431 region in the last hour amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. Geopolitical tensions escalated after the US launched land strikes on Venezuela over the weekend. Moreover, US President Donald Trump's confrontational rhetoric toward Colombia and Mexico raised concerns about regional instability in Latin America, boosting demand for the traditional safe-haven commodity.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trims a part of its strong intraday gains to a nearly four-week top amid prospects for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. This turns out to be another factor driving flows towards the non-yielding Gold and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move. Traders now look forward to this week's key US macroeconomic releases for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the bullion.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to be underpinned by safe-haven flows, dovish Fed expectations
- The US Army's Delta Force – an elite special forces unit – attacked Venezuela and captured its President Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, on Saturday. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump openly signaled that Colombia and Mexico could also face US action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability.
- This comes on top of the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, unrest in Iran, and issues surrounding Gaza, which keeps geopolitical risks in play and benefits the safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week. Apart from this, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations turn out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Investors are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs in March and could deliver another interest rate cut later this year. Moreover, expectations that the Trump-aligned new Fed chair will push for aggressive action overshadow the central bank's hawkish guidance of just one rate reduction by the end of this year.
- This week's release of important US macro data, including the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, and the upcoming inflation data, will determine Fed policy trajectory. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the commodity.
- The USD builds on its recent goodish recovery move from the lowest level since early October, touched on December 24, and rallied to a nearly four-week top. This, however, fails to hinder the XAU/USD pair's intraday move up beyond the $4,400 mark, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the upside.
Gold bulls retain control amid an intraday breakout through the 100-hour SMA and $4,400
On the 1-hour chart, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) slopes downward, keeping the broader tone cautious. The XAU/USD pair stands above this average, hinting at an intraday rebound, while the 100-SMA at $4,377.80 offers initial support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has flipped to positive and is widening, indicating the MACD line above the signal line and improving bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 63.42, firm but not overbought.
Holding above the descending 100-SMA would keep the recovery path open, while a close back below it would expose further retracement. The MACD’s positive tone suggests buyers retain the initiative and a continued expansion would favor additional gains. The RSI remains north of 60, reinforcing upward pressure; a retreat toward 50 would flag fading momentum.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- The Pound Sterling is under pressure as the US raid in Venezuela has increased the safe-haven demand.
- The BoE is expected to follow a gradual monetary easing cycle in 2026.
- Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against its safe-haven currency peers, outperforming risky ones at the start of the week. The British currency drops 0.2% to near 1.3420 against the US Dollar (USD) as investors turn risk-averse, following the United States’ (US) strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro against drug-trafficking charges.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits an over three-week high at 98.80.
Over the weekend, the US raided Venezuela and announced that it will restructure its Oil industry by bringing American Oil companies. US President Donald Trump also threatened to conduct raids in Colombia and Iran.
"Colombia’s very sick, run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States,” Trump said, Reuters reported.
On Iran, US President Trump said the country would “get hit very hard” if Tehran began killing protestors.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling drops against US Dollar at the start of the week
- The Pound Sterling trades higher against its risky currency peers on expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will follow a gradual monetary easing cycle in 2026. The BoE stated in its last policy meeting of 2025 that the monetary policy will remain on a “gradual downward path” after reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75% with a 5-4 majority in December.
- Market experts believe that the BoE favored a moderate easing campaign as the United Kingdom (UK) inflation is well above the 2% target despite cooling down in the last two months.
- The UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came down to 3.2% in November from the peak of 3.8% seen in September.
- This week, the GBP/USD pair is expected to face significant volatility as a string of US economic data is lined up for release, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December on Friday.
- Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data to get fresh cues on the current state of the job market. In 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered three interest rate cuts, pushing them lower to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support weakening labor market conditions.
- In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick higher to 48.3 from 48.2 in November, suggesting that the business activity contracted again, but at a slightly moderate pace.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD corrects to near 20-day EMA
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3427 at the time of writing. Price holds marginally above a rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3422, keeping the short-term bias pointed higher. The average has advanced steadily and continues to underpin shallow pullbacks.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 54 (neutral) has slipped from recent elevated readings, signaling moderating bullish momentum.
Measured from the 1.3791 high in early July to the 1.3008 low in November, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3491 stands as the next resistance, while the 50% retracement at 1.3399 defines the immediate support. A daily close above 1.3491 would extend the advance, whereas a drop back below 1.3399 could invite a deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
- The Indian Rupee declines against the US Dollar at the start of the week, with the USD/INR rising to near 90.50.
- US President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on imports from India.
- Market sentiment turns sour as the US strikes Venezuela.
The Indian Rupee (INR) slides to a fresh almost two-week low against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 90.50 as the Indian currency weakens, following threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he could further raise tariffs on imports from India for not supporting Washington in resolving the Russian oil issue.
“We could raise tariffs on India if they don't have help on Russian oil issue,” US President Trump said, Reuters reported. Trump added, “They wanted to make me happy, basically PM Modi's a very good man. He's a good guy. He knew I was not happy. It was important to make me happy. They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly."
The tariff threat from US President Trump on India has renewed trade frictions between the two nations. In 2025, Trump raised import duties on India to 50%, which included punitive 25% tariffs for buying Oil from Russia.
Trade tensions between the US and India led to a significant increase in the demand for the US Dollar by Indian importers and an outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market. Strong demand for the US Dollar pushed the USD/INR pair to its lifetime high at 91.55 and forced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to intervene in spot and Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) markets to support the Indian Rupee.
In 2025, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pared their stake worth Rs. 3,06,418.88 crore in the Indian equity market. FIIs have also turned out to be overall net sellers in the first two trading days of January 2026 and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 2,978.80 crore.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.01% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.14% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.24% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.11% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.02% | |
| INR | -0.24% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
US Dollar gains as US-Venezuela clash dampens market mood
- A positive weekly start by the USD/INR pair is also driven by strength in the US Dollar due to risk-off market sentiment. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.35% higher to near 98.80.
- Investors turn risk-averse following the US’ strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro against drug-trafficking charges in New York, and threats from US President Trump to take action on Colombia and Iran too.
- Escalating geopolitical risks have forced investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet, improving demand for bullion, base metals, and the US Dollar.
- US President Trump has also stated that Washington will take over and restructure Venezuela’s Oil industry, which accounts for 7% of global reserves or 303 billion barrels, according to the London-based Energy Institute.
- The impact of the US-led takeover of Venezuela’s Oil industry is expected to be significant for the Indian economy, assuming that the additional supply of Oil will lower energy prices. Given that India is one of the largest Oil-importing countries in the world and meets 85% of its energy needs from imported Oil, lower crude prices will be favorable for the Indian Rupee.
- Going forward, the US Dollar is expected to trade with volatility in a US data-packed week, starting from the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in mildly higher at 48.3 from 48.2 in November, suggesting that activity has contracted again, but at a slightly moderate pace.
- This week, the notable release will be the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. The US NFP data will have a significant influence on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement later this month.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% in the policy announcement on January 28.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds firm above 20-day EMA
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.4470. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher at 90.2130, maintaining a modest bullish bias. Price holds above the gauge, indicating dip demand persists.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.86 is rising, confirming firming momentum.
Initial support sits at the rising 20-EMA; a daily close beneath it would temper the upside and lead to a deeper retracement towards the December low of 89.50. While the all-time high of 91.55 will remain a key barrier on the upside.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Mon Jan 05, 2026 15:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 48.3
Previous: 48.2
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
- EUR/USD hits four-week lows below 1.1700 amid the US Dollar's strength.
- FX markets are looking beyond the geopolitical tensions after the US intervention in Venezuela
- Investors await a slew of US macroeconomic data for further insight into the Fed easing calendar.
EUR/USD has opened the week on the same soft tone that closed the previous one. The pair trades at four-week lows of 1.1690 at the time of writing, with traders trying to look ahead to the US intervention in Venezuela into a slew of key US macroeconomic releases due later in the week.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is expected to appear in a US court later on Monday, after being captured by US forces over the weekend, and US President Donald Trump has warned about the possibility of further attacks on the country if the authorities do not cooperate with US plans to open up the country's Oil industry and stop drug trafficking.
Market sentiment, however, has hardly been affected by the weekend's events. The main Asian indices have been trading higher, and European markets are pointing to a mildly positive opening.
In FX markets, the trend of a stronger US Dollar (USD) observed late last week has extended into this one. Upbeat US home sales and Jobless Claims data last week strengthened the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance of a very gradual easing cycle, and investors are awaiting key economic releases this week, including the key US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, to confirm that view.
Before that, the European Sentix Investors Confidence Index and the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are expected to drive the pair on Monday.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.23% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.18% | |
| EUR | -0.23% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.25% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.18% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar gains as investors reassess Fed easing bets
- The US Dollar has opened 2026 on a strong note. Last week, US Pending Home Sales and US Jobless Claims figures beat expectations, and the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI confirmed a moderate growth of the sector's activity and endorsed the Fed hawks' view supporting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, considering the sticky inflationary pressures.
- The growing geopolitical tensions after the attack on Venezuela have had a minor impact on markets so far. Stocks rose in Asia, and Oil prices fell in a sign that investors are looking beyond Maduro's capture, focusing on the US economic figures, due to be released this week
- In Europe, the most relevant release on Monday will be January's Sentix Investor Confidence reading. The index analyzes institutional investors' views on the current economic situation, which has shown negative readings since August, reflecting a downbeat sentiment.
- The US calendar opens this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to show a minor improvement to 48.3 in December from 48.2 in the previous month.
- The highlight of the week, however, will be December's Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be observed with interest to assess the momentum of the US labour market and will provide further insight into the Fed's interest rate path.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is clinging on 1.1670 support
The EUR/USD has extended its correction from 1.1800 highs to four-week lows below 1.1700, and technical indicators point to further decline. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 35, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing red bars, highlighting a strong bearish momentum.
The pair has found support near 1.1670, but so far, it seems unable to post any significant recovery. Further down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December rally, at 1.1650, might provide support ahead of the 1.1615 area, where the December 8 and 9 lows meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned cycle.
A bullish reaction should breach previous support levels at the 1.1715-1.1720 area (December 31, January 2 lows) to ease negative pressure and aim for the January 2 high, at 1.1765.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
- GBP/JPY retreats from the 211.50 resistance area amid broad-based Pound weakness.
- BoJ Governor Ueda's comments have provided some support to the Yen.
- A break below 210.00 would confirm a triple top at 211.50.
The Sterling has failed, once again, to break above the resistance area at 211.50, where it was capped on December 22 and 26, and is trading lower on Monday. Technical indicators hint at a weaker bullish momentum, although the pair has not shown a clear sign of a trend shift as of yet.
In the fundamental front, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor, Kazuho Ueda, has reiterated the central bank’s commitment to keep tightening its monetary policy if its economic projections are met. This, coupled with a broader GBP weakness, is keeping the pair on the back foot on Monday.
Technical analysis: Key support is at 210.00
In the 4-hour chart, GBP/JPY trades at 210.88, posting moderate losses on the daily chart after rejection at the 211.50 area on Friday.
Technical indicators show are heading lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing levels below the key 50 line, showing some bearish divergence with price action. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns marginally negative near the zero line, and the MACD line slips below the Signal line, highlighting a fading momentum.
Trendline support is now at the 210.50 area, but a decline below 210.05 (December 24 low) would be needed to confirm a triple top in the 211.50 area and signal a trend shift. The next downside targets would be the November 9 and 1o highs, at 208.90, and the December 19 low, near 208.00.
On the upside, above the long-term high, at 211.59 (December 22 high), the potential targets are the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the December 15 to December 22 rally, at 212.75, and the 161.8% extension of the same cycle, at 214.38,.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.28% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.25% | -0.04% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.00% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | 0.04% | -0.17% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.24% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.21% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
- USD/CHF remains firm as Swiss retail sales rose 2.3% YoY, below forecasts but above the prior reading.
- The Swiss Franc may strengthen amid escalating Russia–Ukraine tensions.
- The US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand amid heightened US–Venezuela tensions.
USD/CHF remains firm following the weaker-than-expected Swiss Real Retail Sales, which rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, falling short of the expected 2.9% but coming above the prior 2.2% increase (revised from 2.7% increase). The pair is hovering around 0.7940 during the European hours on Monday.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) may gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) amid escalating Ukraine-Russian tensions. Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine has targeted Moscow with drones daily in 2026 so far, marking an escalation from earlier sporadic attacks. Russian air defences destroyed 57 drones over the Moscow region by Sunday midnight, out of 437 intercepted nationwide. Ukraine has not commented, but Kyiv has increasingly used long-range drones to strike deep inside Russia, per The Guardian.
The Greenback advances on safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the renewed geopolitical tensions following the United States’ (US) capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Focus will be shifted toward the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data due later in the North American session.
CNN reported over the weekend that the US President Donald Trump administration launched a “large-scale strike against Venezuela” and detained President Maduro to face charges, without congressional approval. Trump said the US would administer Venezuela until a safe, orderly, and judicious transition is achieved.
The Guardian reported on Monday that President Trump warned Washington could launch a new military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, fails to meet US demands. He also made remarks about Colombia’s leadership, floated the idea of “Operation Colombia,” criticized Mexico for not getting its act together, and suggested Cuba appeared close to collapse.
Economic Indicator
Real Retail Sales (YoY)
The Retail Sales data, released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on a monthly basis, measures the volume of goods sold by retailers in Switzerland. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jan 05, 2026 07:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.3%
Consensus: 2.9%
Previous: 2.7%
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland
- Silver price may rise toward the upper ascending channel boundary around $83.10.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 66.57 signals bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels.
- The immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of $72.38.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains nearly 4%, trading around $75.50 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart timeframe suggests the price of the precious metal remains within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.57 remains bullish without entering overbought territory. RSI has turned higher again, reinforcing improving bullish pressure.
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises well above the 50-day EMA, and the XAG/USD pair holds over both, preserving an upward bias. Both averages maintain positive slopes after a sustained advance. Momentum stays supportive while the metal consolidates above the rising nine-day EMA, keeping the path of least resistance to the upside.
The short-term average remains bullish and keeps the topside in focus, and opens a path toward resistance at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $83.10. A break above the channel would help the Silver price to approach the record high of $85.87, which was recorded on December 29, 2025.
On the downside, the immediate support aligns at the nine-day EMA of $72.38, followed by the lower ascending channel boundary around $72.10. A daily close below the channel would open a correction toward the 50-day EMA at $60.85.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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