Forex News
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that elevated US yields and increased expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening are supporting the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. The 2-year and 10-year yields remain high, and markets are pricing a higher probability of Fed action by year-end. This backdrop underpins a carry-driven bid for the Dollar, with US Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 99.00 as US data stay supportive.
High US yields back Dollar strength
"The 4-week average of initial jobless claims stayed low at around 202.5k as of mid-May, while the S&P Global US composite PMI steadied at 51.7 in May, remaining in expansion territory."
"That said, US yields stay elevated. The 2-year is holding above 4%, while the 10-year has risen by nearly 20bps to around 4.57% month-to-date. Markets have also shifted towards pricing a higher probability of Fed tightening by year-end."
"This yield backdrop continues to underpin a carry-driven bid for the USD, with DXY firming above the 99.00 level. US macro data also remains supportive of the dollar. "
"Talks between the US and Iran remain ongoing, with Iran’s uranium stockpile and control over the Strait of Hormuz emerging as key sticking points. Iran appears to be insisting on retaining its uranium stockpile domestically, while also proposing a toll system for transit through the Hormuz strait."
"Nonetheless, tentative optimism around a potential agreement has supported risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 closing higher and Brent crude edging lower."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- WTI OIL hovers below $98, on track to a 3.8% weekly decline.
- Positive comments about the US-Iran peace negotiations have pushed Cride Oil down from weekly highs.
- Hopes about an upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are limiting declines.
Crude Oil prices are hovering near 10-day lows, with upside attempts limited below the $98.00 line on Friday, on track to a nearly 4% weekly decline. Comments by US officials highlighting some advances in the peace negotiations with Iranian authorities are feeding hopes of a negotiated end to the war and keeping Cude prices under pressure.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio showed hope that Pakistani mediators will advance diplomatic efforts to reach a sustainable peace agreement. The market, however, holds a significant degree of scepticism as positions on key issues such as Iran’s nuclear power and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remain far apart.
The barrel of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), however, trades more than 30% above pre-war levels as the blockage of Hormuz approaches its third month, heightening concerns about a global Oil shortage. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned earlier this week that its oil deficit projection is widening in 2026, with consumption outweighing production by 2.56 million barrels per day, which might rise to 8.43 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported on Friday that Iran and Oman have held negotiations to enforce a permanent toll on transit through the Key Hormuz waterway. Beyond that, the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’s (UAE) state oil firm warned that Oil transit would not return to normal until next year, even if the war ended tomorrow. Against this background, declines in Crude prices are likely to remain limited unless the landscape changes dramatically.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
- The Indian Rupee trades firmly against the US Dollar at around 95.90 on firm hopes of the US-Iran deal.
- Iran remains adamant on holding uranium stockpiles and authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
- FIIs could continue paring stake in the Indian stock market due to the lack of AI-related stocks.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 95.90 as weakness in oil prices due to intensified optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon has strengthened the Indian Rupee.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.7% lower at around $96.27, closer to its weekly low of $94.94 posted on Thursday.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, attract bids following a sharp correction in oil prices.
Final draft of US-Iran deal is prepared
On Thursday, the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA) reported that a final draft between Washington and Tehran has been reached with mediation from Pakistan, and a deal can be announced within the next few hours. These headlines led to a sharp recovery in riskier assets and weighed heavily on oil prices.
However, market participants are still concerned about whether a deal between the two sides will be reached, as Iran remained adamant about keeping the near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles in Iran and the recognition of Tehran’s authority on the Strait of Hormuz.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also confirmed that there had been "some good signs" in talks to end the Middle East war, but differences remain over Tehran’s uranium stockpile and controls over the waterway.
FIIs remain net sellers for third straight trading day
Overseas investors continue to dump their stakes in the Indian stock market amid concerns regarding India Inc.’s earnings projections, with oil prices still remaining elevated. On Thursday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) emerged as net sellers for the third straight trading day and offloaded their stake worth Rs. 1,891.21 crore.
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have stated that selling pressure from FIIs could continue till 2028, as foreign money is chasing Artificial Intelligence (AI)-linked plays elsewhere in Asia. The BofA has forecasted that India Inc.’s earnings growth could be about 8.5% in the current financial year, while markets in South Korea and Taiwan are projected to deliver stronger earnings growth.
Hawkish Fed bets support US Dollar
The US Dollar reflects broader strength even as oil prices have declined due to growing optimism on the US-Iran deal. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher to near 99.25, not so far from its six-week high of 99.51.
The US Dollar remains broadly firm as traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding benchmark lending rates at their current levels or delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are 50.8% and 48.1%, respectively.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees immediate support near 20-day EMA
USD/INR falls further to near 95.90 on Friday. However, the pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.40, keeping the recent uptrend intact.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index drops to near 60 after turning overbought, suggesting buyers still have control, though upside momentum has cooled down.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 95.40, with the current spot level itself acting as a nearby pivot as long as daily closes remain above that moving average. A sustained break beneath the 20-day EMA would hint at a deeper corrective phase towards 95.00. Looking up, the pair could aim to test 98.00 if it manages a firm break above 97.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said after a meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi that both the central bank and government will continue to coordinate closely. Ueda added, “The meeting was beneficial to all parties.”
Additional remarks
Explained monetary policy thinking to Takaichi.
Did not discuss any specifics (when asked about market prospects of June rate hike).
Takaichi said she hoped for BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriately.
Adding that she hoped for it to take into account government steps to cushion against the blow of rising inflation.
Able to exchange views in a positive manner on various fronts.
Discussed economic, price, market developments in taking into account the Middle East conflict.
Market reaction
No reaction seen in USD/JPY after BoJ Ueda's comments. As of writing, USD/JPY trades 0.1% higher at around 159.10.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
- AUD/USD declines to near 0.7130 amid concerns over the continuation of the RBA’s policy tightening cycle.
- Market experts doubt the RBA’s policy tightening continuation, following weak Australian employment data.
- Investors await fresh cues regarding US-Iran negotiations on peace deal.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is down 0.25% to near 0.7130 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair faces intense selling pressure as fading hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets, following the release of the weak Australian employment data for April, have diminished the appeal of the antipodean.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.28% | 0.30% | -0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.17% | -0.20% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.29% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.23% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.07% | 0.13% | 0.16% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.25% | -0.21% | -0.13% | 0.03% | -0.37% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.29% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.39% | |
| CHF | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The data showed on Thursday that the Australian Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5%, while it was expected to remain steady at 4.3%. During the month, Australian employers fired 18.6K workers, while they were anticipated to have hired 17.5K fresh job-seekers.
A surprising increase in the Australian jobless rate has raised concerns about whether the RBA will continue its monetary tightening cycle in the June policy meeting.
Analysts at Westpac have stated that their call for the RBA to pause in its June policy meeting is now high-conviction, but expect the tightening cycle to remain broadly continued amid high inflation concerns.
In addition to the weakness in the Australian Dollar, a broadly firm US Dollar is also hurting the Aussie pair. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.30.
Going forward, the major trigger for the pair and global markets will be statements from Washington and Tehran regarding the peace deal. On Thursday, Iran said that the final draft of the peace deal with the United States (US) has been finalized, and a deal could be announced in few hours. However, no deal has been announced yet.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate s.a.
The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu May 21, 2026 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4.5%
Consensus: 4.3%
Previous: 4.3%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.
- Gold hovers above $4,500, halfway through the weekly trading range.
- Investors await more clarity from the US-Iran peace negotiations.
- XAU/USD is forming a small triangle pattern with a bearish outcome favoured.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower for the second consecutive day on Friday, but remains contained within previous ranges, with downside attempts limited above the $4,500 line for now. Market volatility remains subdued on Friday, with traders awaiting developments from the US-Iran war to make investment decisions.
The confusing situation in the Middle East is providing moderate support to the safe-haven US Dollar, keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) steady near six-week highs and Gold bulls in check.
The latest news reports that Tehran is reviewing a peace proposal submitted by the US, with both parties far apart on Iran’s nuclear activities and control of the Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, said on Thursday that there was “some progress” in the talks with Tehran, which is feeding a moderate optimism
Technical Analysis: Gold is nearing the tip of a triangle pattern
XAU/USD trades at $4,522, holding a capped tone, with price action nearing the tip of a small triangle pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, hinting at consolidative, yet slightly negative momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory but has started to ease, suggesting that recent upside attempts are losing traction
Triangles are considered continuation patterns; thus, in this case, a bearish outcome is favoured. The base of the triangle is now at $4,500, but the key support area is the May 20 low near $4,450. A break of this level exposes late March lows at $4,350 and $4,306.
A confirmation above $4,580 (May 18 highs), on the other hand, would negate the bearish view and shift to the May 11 and 12 lows around the $4,650 ahead of May's top in the $4,770 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD is likely to trade between 0.7120 and 0.7175 in the near term after a sharp rebound left momentum unclear. Over 1–3 weeks, downward momentum is said to be slowing rapidly, with a break above 0.7180 signalling that recent weakness has stabilised. The broader 1–3 month view still points to a lower AUD/USD toward 0.6765 if 0.6850/0.6870 breaks.
Australian Dollar weakness shows signs of stabilising
"24-HOUR VIEW: AUD rebounded strongly to a high of 0.7175 two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp bounce appears excessive,” and we were of the view that “instead of continuing to rise, AUD is more likely to trade between 0.7115 and 0.7175.” AUD then swung between 0.7100 and 0.7168 before closing little changed at 0.7149 (-0.06%). We are not able to derive much from the price action. Today, AUD could trade between 0.7120 and 0.7175."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a negative AUD stance for more than a week. Following the strong rebound in AUD on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday (21 May, spot at 0.7150) that “downward momentum is slowing rapidly, and a breach of 0.7180 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in AUD has stabilised.” We continue to hold the same view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, Alexander Demarco, said during the European trading session on Friday that the central bank will probably need to hike interest rates in the June policy meeting.
Additional remarks
The ECB must show commitment to 2% target to stay credible.
Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
There's not much evidence of indirect inflation effects.
ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach is still valid.
Currently I don’t see need to go too far on rates.
2026 inflation outlook likely to be revised higher.
Projections to show if one hike is enough or more needed.
Market reaction
There has been a marginal recovery in EUR/USD from 1.1596 to near 1.1606, but is still 0.1% down as of writing.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
- EUR/USD drifts lower, nearing 1.1600, on track for its second consecutive weekly decline.
- Uncertainty about the outcome of the US-Iran peace negotiations is weighing on risk appetite.
- German GDP and IFO Business Climate data show some resilience to the Middle East conflict.
The Euro (EUR) nudges lower against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday, on track to close the week in the red for the second consecutive time. Contradicting messages from the Middle East overshadow a string of fairly upbeat German macroeconomic data released earlier on the day.
Risk appetite remains subdued on Friday as Tehran mulls the latest peace proposal submitted by the US. Investors are sceptical, as the stances on Iran’s nuclear activities and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain far apart, but comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighting “some progress” in the talks with Tehran, are keeping hopes alive.
On the macroeconomic front, data from Germany were supportive for the Euro. The final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released earlier on Friday, confirmed that the economy grew at a 0.3% pace, steady from the last three months of 2025, while the annualised GDP was revised up to 0.4% from the previously estimated 0.3% growth.
A few hours later, CESifo Group revealed that the German IFO Business Climate Index improved to 84.9 in May, from an upwardly revised 84.5 in April, against expectations of further deterioration, to 84.2. Likewise, the sentiment about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next six months have improved beyond expectations, soothing concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the Eurozone’s leading economy.
Economic Indicator
IFO – Business Climate
This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Last release: Fri May 22, 2026 08:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 84.9
Consensus: 84.2
Previous: 84.4
Source: IFO Institute
Economic Indicator
IFO – Current Assessment
The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report
Last release: Fri May 22, 2026 08:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 86.1
Consensus: 85.1
Previous: 85.4
Source: IFO Institute
In the US, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the swearing-in ceremony for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Kevin Warsh will gather investor’s attention. Data releazsed earlier on the week was US Dollar supportive, as the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers index (PMI) showed that manufacturing activity rose at its fastest pace in four years, endorsing the hawkishvpivot observed in the Fed´s minutes released the day before
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