Forex News
Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9. The bank anticipates softer DMP price, wage and CPI expectations and another negative employment expectations print.
Credit, PMIs, DMP and fiscal update
"It's a big week ahead. Key for markets will be the Spring Statement. We will also get the final PMIs and DMP survey data. We will also get the BRC Shop Price data and the January credit release."
"We expect net consumer credit to ramp up to GBP 1.7bn. Indeed, retail sales data pointed to a sizeable jump to start the year. And we expect stronger consumer spending to come partly as a result of a jump in credit. On mortgage approvals, we expect the December drop to partly unwind, with data pushing higher to 64.5k. Indeed, new buyer enquiries have picked up since December, according to the RICS survey."
"Perhaps the most important survey data coming out in the week ahead will be the February DMP survey. Here, we will be watching three things. One, firms' output price expectations. We expect this to inch lower to 3.4%. Two, firms' wage growth expectations. Our models point to a small drop off here too - to 3.5%. Three, firms' CPI expectations. We see this also softening. Latest household expectations slowed in February."
"And with CPI slowing, we expect firms to adjust their expectations lower - both in the near-term and medium-term. The last thing to watch will be firms' employment expectations. Another negative print seems likely in the year ahead. We will be watching this closely for any signs of improvement."
"On the PMI releases, we expect no change from the flash print. We see the manufacturing PMI headline staying put at 52. And we expect the services PMI headline index to also stick at 53.9. On construction, we expect the headline data to show a steady improvement to 48.5. Elsewhere, we get the BRC Shop Price Index. After a bigger than expected bump in January, we will be watching closely how retailers continue to price discounts/promotions - particularly around food."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
ING’s Muhammet Mercan projects Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, implying 3.8% for 2025, underpinned by domestic demand but with some quarterly loss of momentum. He expects February inflation to remain high at 2.9% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year, warning that a more negative surprise could prompt the central bank to pause tightening at the March MPC meeting.
Domestic demand strength versus sticky prices
"We expect growth at 3.9%, translating into 3.8% growth for the entire 2025."
"This implies continuing resilience in GDP amid domestic demand–driven growth, though some loss of momentum is likely on a quarterly basis."
"Inflation, on the other hand, should remain high in February, as warned by the central bank, with upward pressure from food prices ahead of Ramadan."
"We see the monthly figure at 2.9%, with annual inflation inching up to 31.4% from 30.7% a month ago."
"A more negative surprise would lead the Bank to be more cautious and hence possibly pause at the March MPC meeting, in our view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- EUR/USD steadies above 1.1800 despite stronger-than-expected US PPI data.
- US producer inflation remains firm, supporting a higher-for-longer Fed rate stance.
- June rate-cut odds fall below 50%, with markets eyeing July for easing.
EUR/USD steadies on Friday, extending the range-bound price action that has defined trading so far this week. The Euro (EUR) remains relatively firm after the US Dollar (USD) failed to build on stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.1815, recovering modestly after briefly dipping below the 1.1800 mark earlier in the day.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the headline PPI increased 0.5% MoM in January, exceeding the 0.3% forecast. December’s reading was revised lower to 0.4% from 0.5%.
On an annual basis, PPI rose 2.9%, above the 2.6% expectation, though slightly below the previous 3% print.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.8% MoM, sharply higher than the 0.3% estimate. December’s core reading was revised lower to 0.6% from 0.7%. On a yearly basis, core PPI accelerated to 3.6% from 3.3%, topping the 3% forecast.
Following the release, the Greenback briefly edged higher before easing. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 97.64 after retreating from the daily high near 97.85.
The data strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates on hold, as inflationary pressure remains above the 2% target.
Markets are increasingly pricing in no change in interest rates at the Fed’s March and April meetings, with the odds of a June rate cut dropping below 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a July rate cut stands at around 68%.
In the Eurozone, softer German inflation data released earlier on Friday triggered only a limited reaction in the Euro. Preliminary figures showed Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% MoM in February, falling short of the 0.5% forecast but edging up from the previous 0.1% increase. On a yearly basis, CPI eased to 1.9% from 2.1%, missing expectations of 2%.
Meanwhile, the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased 0.4% MoM, slightly below the 0.5% estimate but rebounding from the prior -0.1% reading. The annual HICP rate moderated to 2% from 2.1%
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
- USD/JPY trades slightly lower around 156.00 as the US Dollar consolidates after the PPI release.
- Producer price inflation surprises to the upside, reducing bets on a June Fed rate cut.
- The Japanese Yen remains supported by expectations of gradual tightening from the Bank of Japan.
USD/JPY hovers around 156.00 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day, despite the release of stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The move reflects a measured market reaction, with the US Dollar (USD) struggling to extend its rebound after the inflation figures.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the PPI rose 0.5% MoM in January, above the 0.3% expected. On a yearly basis, the index increased 2.9%, also beating forecasts. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.8% MoM, above consensus, and accelerated to 3.6% YoY. These figures confirm that upstream inflationary pressures remain persistent.
This trend reinforces the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which wants clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back toward its 2% target before considering further easing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a rate cut in June has now fallen below 50%, while markets increasingly look to July for a potential move, with around 50 basis points of easing priced in by year-end.
In theory, the scaling back of rate cut expectations supports the US Dollar. However, the upside impact remains limited by structural headwinds, including uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and concerns about central bank independence. In addition, the recent implementation of a 10% global tariff has revived fears of a slowdown in global growth.
On the Japanese side, Tokyo inflation showed a slight moderation but remained elevated by historical standards. Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% YoY in February, while the gauge excluding fresh food increased 1.8%, slipping below the Bank of Japan (BoJ) 2% target for the first time since 2024. Despite this moderation, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates will continue to rise if economic and inflation projections materialize. Board member Hajime Takata also stressed that tightening should proceed gradually.
These remarks sustain expectations of a gradual normalization of Japanese monetary policy, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) and limiting USD/JPY’s upside potential in the near term.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.32% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.12% | -0.13% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.02% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.69% | |
| GBP | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.50% | -0.42% | -0.44% | -0.99% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.29% | -0.18% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.69% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.50% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.50% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.42% | 0.12% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.57% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.99% | 0.69% | 0.50% | 0.57% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Nordea’s Anna Westlund reports that Swedish employment has been rising since early 2025, with BAS and LFS data both showing a positive trend. Forward-looking indicators and higher job vacancies point to strengthening labour demand, and Nordea expects unemployment to fall over the year, although it remains elevated and resource utilization in the labour market is still below normal.
Employment rising but slack still evident
"Employment plans have gradually improved during the second half of 2025."
"Plans have dampened at the start of this year, but remain positive indicating increasing demand for labour going forward."
"Overall, the labour market continues to strengthen."
"Forward-looking indicators point to rising labour demand, and employment is expected to continue increasing faster than the labour force, leading to falling unemployment over the course of the year."
"Regardless of the data source chosen, unemployment is elevated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Gold reclaims $5,200 as US-Iran tensions lift safe-haven demand.
- US advisory in Israel fuels military escalation fears.
- Technically, XAU/USD holds above key $5,140 support with resistance seen at $5,200-$5,250.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades slightly higher on Friday, pressing against the upper boundary of this week’s established range, after reports that US officials advised nonessential embassy staff in Israel to depart amid rising tensions, stoking fears of potential military escalation in the ongoing US-Iran standoff.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $5,225, up nearly 0.57% on the day. Despite remaining range-bound this week, Gold looks set to post a fourth consecutive week of gains.
Markets increasingly doubt a Fed rate cut in June
The latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain patient before lowering borrowing costs.
Core PPI rose 0.8% MoM in January, well above the 0.3% forecast and accelerating from the 0.6% increase recorded in December. On a yearly basis, core producer prices climbed 3.6%, up from 3.3% previously and exceeding expectations of 3%.
Markets are nearly certain that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its March and April meetings, while trimming bets also on a June rate cut as policymakers continue to stress that inflation must show clearer signs of cooling before lowering rates.
This repricing of rate-cut expectations, with a hold now expected also in June, weighs on Gold and lends support to the US Dollar (USD), capping gains in XAU/USD.
No news from Geneva
The third round of indirect US-Iran nuclear talks ended in Geneva on Thursday without any meaningful progress, with Washington increasing its military deployment in the region. The possibility of military action remains well alive, supporting safe-haven demand and limiting Gold’s downside.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the latest round of talks as “good.” “These were the most serious and longest talks,” he said, adding that further technical discussions will be held next week in Vienna.
Market sentiment has also been dampened by renewed uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Trade tensions intensified earlier this week after a fresh 10% global tariff took effect, just days after the US Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration’s earlier use of emergency powers to impose tariffs.
Against this backdrop of fading rate-cut expectations and ongoing US trade and Iran tensions, Gold may remain confined to a narrow range in the near term.
The broader outlook for Gold remains tilted to the upside, with the metal on track for a seventh straight monthly gain, supported by steady central bank buying, solid ETF inflows, and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades sideways as momentum cools
The near-term bias remains mildly bullish to neutral on the 4-hour chart, as price continues to hold comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,039.
Immediate support is seen around $5,140, aligning closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141, measured from the $4,402 low to the the $5,598 all-time high. The 100-period SMA at $5,038 reinforces a stronger support zone beneath. A sustained break below $5,038 could expose the 50% retracement at $5,000 and weaken the current bullish structure.
On the upside, initial resistance is located in the $5,200-$5,250 region, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $5,342. Rejection near $5,342 would suggest fading upside momentum, while a decisive break above this level could open the door toward the $5,598 peak.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 55, retreating from overbought territory above 70, indicating cooling but still positive momentum rather than outright exhaustion.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) around 17 signals a weak trend environment, so upside progress would depend on fresh buying interest rather than strong trend continuation.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Societe Generale analysts note that Deputy Governor Galia Borja signaled Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, pointing to weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger Peso. The Mexican Peso stayed resilient despite renewed USMCA concerns and a decline in President Sheinbaum’s approval rating. Revised 4Q GDP and slightly higher mid‑February inflation were also noted.
Banxico signals space for rate cuts
"FX was not immune and spillover from Tech halted the upward run in carry and commodity currencies incl the ZAR, COP, CLP, MXN and AUD."
"The MXN was resilient despite renewed USMCA concerns expressed by USTR Greer and a dip in President Sheinbaum’s approval rating to 56%, the lowest since taking office."
"In Mexico, Deputy Governor Galia Borja indicated that Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, citing weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger peso."
"On data front, final 4Q GDP was revised up to 0.9% qoq from 0.8% (1.8% yoy vs 1.6%) and inflation for the first half of February inched up marginally to 3.92% from 3.82%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
- Silver rallies as US PPI tops forecasts, signaling renewed inflation pressures.
- Tariff-driven price gains in services amplify concerns of cost pass-through to consumers.
- Trade uncertainty and stalled US-Iran talks underpin safe-haven demand despite a firm US Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third consecutive day on Friday after the latest inflation report in the United States prompted investors to seek the safety of the white metal, while the Greenback remained firm. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades near $91.39, up close to 3%.
XAG/USD jumps as elevated US producer prices, trade tensions revive haven demand
Market mood turned negative as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in January exceeded estimates driven by import tariffs, signaling that inflation could reaccelerate in the upcoming months.
Headline PPI dipped from 3% to 2.9% YoY but exceeded forecasts of 2.6%. Core PPI, which excludes volatile items and reflects a clear picture of prices, increased by 3.6% YoY, missing estimates and the last month's reading of 3% and 3.3%, respectively.
Tariffs are the main reason for the price jump. Services accounted for a 0.8% increase in PPI, led by trade services up 2.5%. Margins for professional and commercial equipment rose 14.4%, a signal that businesses were passing on tariffs.
Aside from this, uncertainty about tariffs and the lack of progress of nuclear talks between the US and Iran are a tailwind for Silver prices, which are set to finish the month with gains of nearly 10%.
Breaking news emerged that the US authorized the departure of some embassy personnel and families from Israel amid safety risks, as the risks of an attack over the weekend on Iran are rising.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the country has begun collecting 10% tariffs since Tuesday, under Section 122. He added that for some countries, duties will rise to15%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $91.69. The near-term bias is cautiously bullish as price holds well above the rising 50–200-day simple moving average cluster around $84–85, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite recent volatility. Daily RSI around 57 stays above its midline and edges higher, signaling recovering upside momentum after the mid-range consolidation. Multiple upward-sloping support trend lines from the $20s through the $60s reinforce the long-term ascending structure, indicating that pullbacks remain corrective within a dominant bullish phase.
Initial support emerges near the dynamic zone of the longer moving averages around $84–85, with a deeper cushion aligning with prior swing congestion in the low-$80s if sellers extend a correction. A sustained break below this band would expose the next downside area toward the high-$70s, where the broader trend structure would come under pressure. On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the recent highs just above $96, and a daily close above that barrier would reopen the path toward the psychological $100 handle. A clean break over $100 would confirm trend continuation, leaving scope for a retest and potential extension of the rally within the prevailing bullish channel.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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